Map Summary, 13Z 27 August, 2008
As nothing is particularly imminent, I’ll do a brief map discussion.
Upper level AMVs and MTSAT IR Image. TCS invests are annotated. Valid 13z 27 Aug, 2008
In this image, you can see the three T-PARC invests and Tropical Depression 14W. TCS025 has been the focus of the experiment for the past few days. It’s currently pretty close to Guam and is predicted to strengthen a bit and potentially threaten Japan over the next few days.
Comparing this analysis with the GFS 12-hour forecast (initialized from the 00 UTC run):
Annotated 12-hour GFS forecast of 850 hPa vorticity and streamlines.
One can see that the GFS forecast has most of the general features. TD 14W is placed fairly well within the model. TCS027 is analyzed a bit too far south as compared to the satellite image. TCS025 and TCS028 are fairly well represented here in the forecast.
The GFS is continuing to develop this system over the next day or so before sending it off northwestward and weakening it. The GFS also brings the remnants of TD14 up along the China coast and eventually merging with a midlatitude disturbance near Japan. The model has been consistent with the development of TCS025, but not with its future track and landfall. Japan looks like the place to watch over the weekend.
You can see this 00z run of the GFS here.
