These maps show the performance of ProbSevere measured against NOAA/NCEI Storm Data reports (hail, wind, or tornado), as a function of NWS Warning Forecast Office (WFO) County Warning Area (CWA) and ProbSevere probability threshold. Here, "ProbSevere" is the maximum hazard probability of ProbHail, ProbWind, and ProbTor. To create a more regional performance metric, each WFO has also included the ProbSevere forecasts from its neighboring offices. NWS warning statistics for adjacent offices were aggregated as well. Please note that NWS statistics are unofficial. Two-hundred and twenty-seven days were scored from January through December of 2018. Please see our WAF 2020 paper for more detalis.



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