Archive for the ‘Forecast Discussion’ Category

Forecast Discussion - 16 April 1200 - 1600 Local

Monday, April 16th, 2007

Today’s weather over DOE ARM site looks fine. Only fly in ointment is possible cirrus contamination from the southwest. At this point, the mass of clouds remain SE of the area of interest:

but the CRAS forecast indicates the cloudiness will become more extensive with time:

as low develops over the front range of the Rockies over night.

Weather conditions over Oklahoma deteriorate very rapidly overnight with extensive precipitation developing by Noon Local on 17 April 2007:


Forecast Discussion for 0300 - 830 UTC 15 April 2007 N. GOM

Friday, April 13th, 2007

The major weather story is the strong low pressure system in the Southern US and trailing cold front extending through north central GOM.  Strong subsidence will occur in the wake of the cold frontal passage, however the frontal system will be in the area of flight interest during the target time/location domain.  Here is the 42 Hour 700 mb RH and precipitation NAM forecast valid for 6 UTC 15 April (from 12 UTC 13 April run…)


The situation will have to be monitored tomorrow (Saturday)……

Preliminary Forecast for Saturday evening flight

Wednesday, April 11th, 2007

Target area is Northern Gulf of Mexico:

This potential flight opportunity will have to be monitored very carefully for possible extensive cloudiness in N. GOM.

Current 84 hour NAM NWP model run (Valid 00 UTC 15 April 2007) indicate a storm system moving through this area.

84HR NAM valid 00 UTC 15 April 200784HR NAM 700mb RH valid 00 UTC 15 April 2007

The speed of the system may change as potential flight period is approached.  Will update again on Friday 13 April.

28 March 2007

Wednesday, March 28th, 2007

Sample for forecast blogging. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy, tranquil conditions eastward into Gulf of Mexico…..