GOES-R Proving Ground - Area Forecast Discussions

Area Forecast Discussions

These National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussions reference CRAS, which is provided as part of the GOES‑R Proving Ground.

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FXUS63 KMKX 042143
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
343 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...

LIGHT RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN WI ON MOSAIC AND LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY ARE
INDICATIVE OF LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING IN. IT IS TAKING A WHILE FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN...BUT ROCKFORD REPORTED
LIGHT SNOW IN THE 21Z HOUR...SO THE SNOW IS ON ITS WAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CLASSIC DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE MIDWEST...COMPLETE WITH DRY SLOT AND DEFORMATION ZONE. THE
SNOW IS ON THE FAVORED SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WRAP-AROUND REGION...PER
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS SYSTEM...OR THE MAIN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY...WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI WHEN THE
AREA OF HIGHER UPPER DIVERGENCE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVE
IN...BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM. PEAK VALUES WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST WI
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OVER IOWA/MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN WI LANDS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 200KT STRENGTHENING UPPER JET. IN ADDITION...MID-LAYER
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL CROSS SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT WITH A DEEP
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.

SNOW OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN WI WILL OCCUR FROM LATE EVENING UNTIL
EARLY MORNING...ABOUT A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3.5
INCHES VARYING FROM LESS NORTH TO MOST SOUTH TOWARD THE IL BORDER.
IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME BROAD WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED BANDS TO SET UP
WITHIN THESE DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETICAL ZONES SOMEWHERE IN THE
MKX FORECAST AREA...CAUSING ENHANCED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH
HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED AS THIS SYSTEM UNFOLDS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC SNOW...THERE SHOULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT
TO SNOW AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST WI DUE TO THE LAKE INFLUENCE AND A
FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FETCH. DELTA-T OVERNIGHT INCREASES TO 15-16
DEGREES WITH INVERSION HEIGHT INCREASING TO AROUND 4K FEET. WIND
DIRECTION SLOWLY BACKS LATE TONIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE BETWEEN
03Z AND 12Z RESULTING IN MODERATE OMEGA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHARTS INDICATE MODERATE SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO
THE MAIN SYSTEM SNOW. THE ADVISORY STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 5.5 INCH RANGE. THE UNCERTAIN AREA
WOULD BE SOUTHEAST WALWORTH COUNTY...THEY ARE NOT IN THE ADVISORY
BUT COULD SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO BUMP UP THEIR SNOWFALL TOTALS.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE NOON
HOUR. THIS IS LONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS BECAUSE MOST MODELS ARE
NOW HANGING ON TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LONGER. CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN FALL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE DAY.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY.

THE 850/700 MB LAYERS STILL HAVE FAIRLY HIGH RH...THEN AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE 850/700 MB RH DECREASES.

850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION DROPS 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO -19.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR
ANOTHER COLD PERIOD. RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS NOT TOO FAVORABLE AS
SURFACE WINDS STAY UP...AND WITH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WINDS MAY NOT DECOUPLE. HOWEVER WIND CHILLS MAY REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MAINLY ZONAL FRIDAY AND BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S. THE
GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX ARE NOT AS STRONG WITH THE TROUGH AND IS NOW
MORE NORTH THEN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS IS CLOSER THAN THE
PREVIOUS SUNDAY CRAS RUN FOR THIS PERIOD.

THE GFS/DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE GFS SPREADS LIGHT SNOW INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY DUE
TO THE BROADER AND MORE NORTH MID/UPPER TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE 12 GFS BRINGS A MORE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY...THAT REACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON
MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND DGEX SIMILAR WITH A SEPARATE NORTH
STREAM AND SECOND STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

THE 12Z GFS IS STILL THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK...WITH A LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX HAS THE MAIN LOW OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE
U.S. WITH A WEAKER TROUGH EXTENDING BACK NORTH.

THE GFS BRINGS LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX ARE
DRY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY...CONTINUING THE COLD TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH IS STILL OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND DGEX PUSH
IT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SOON

.MARINE...

SOON

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ066-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HENTZ

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FXHW60 PHFO 310641
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU JAN 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND STALL NEAR OAHU SATURDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AT
THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS WILL HELP TO KEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. SHOWERS ON THE BIG
ISLAND ARE TAPERING OFF SOME SINCE THIS AFTERNOON/S ACTIVITY. WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THAT COULD
SPARK SOME MORE SHOWERS...BUT AGREE THAT THE TREND OVERNIGHT SHOULD
BE DOWN.

THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A SURFACE LOW FAR NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...KEEPING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE SURFACE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI FRIDAY
NIGHT...STALLING OUT OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. WITH THE
FRONT STALLING OUT...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
USHER IN MOISTURE...KEEPING SHOWERS NOT ONLY ALONG THE FRONT BUT OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS...THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THEIR
HANDLING OF BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE GFS AND
UKMET ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR MORE AGGRESSIVE NATURE OF LIFTING THE LOW
TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF LAGS A BIT BUT ALSO LIFTS THE LOW NORTHWARD.
THE CRAS IS IS THE SLOWEST...BUT KEEPS THE SAME GENERAL MOTION. THE
SAME IS TRUE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE TIME
PERIOD.

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INVIGORATE THE STALLED FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER THE ISLANDS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.MARINE...
THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF SUNDAY/MONDAY.
UNTIL THEN...SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS LEEWARD
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF 8 PM HST.

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...POWELL

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FXHW60 PHFO 081347
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST FRI NOV 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY TODAY ON KAUAI...AND THIS
AFTERNOON ON OAHU. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES TO RETURN
TODAY...AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING ENHANCED
SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN MOVED OVER KAUAI SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE SOUTH. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...ADDITIONAL RAIN HAS FORMED AND
MOVED ONSHORE OF THE GARDEN ISLE. THE CRAS AND NAM MODELS BOTH
PICKED UP BETTER ON THE ADDITIONAL POPS OVER KAUAI FOR TODAY
COMPARED TO THE GLOBAL AND OTHER MODELS. HAVE BEEFED UP POPS FOR
KAUAI FOR ALL DAY TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE MODEL DEPICTION AND THE
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY. NOT SURPRISING THE CRAS AND NAM ALSO BOTH
SHOW A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER KAUAI THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
HAVE ADDED THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR KAUAI ALL
DAY...AND FOR THE AFTERNOON ON OAHU.

THE LIHUE 12Z SOUNDING HAS 2.02 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
/PW/...BUT AS THERE WERE HEAVY SHOWERS IN THE AREA AT THE TIME OF
THE LAUNCH...THIS IS LIKELY ON THE HIGH END. HILO HAD 1.69 INCHES OF
PW AND SHOWS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE.

THE OVERALL PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WILL STICK AROUND TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...AND IS HELPING TO
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS OVER KAUAI...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OAHU.
THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS IS WEAKENING...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME TRADES TO BUILD BACK IN TODAY.

A SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS WEAKENING...BUT MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH IS RESURGENCE SATURDAY...AND WITH IT
ASSOCIATED FRONT REACHING TOWARDS THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.
COMBINED WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT REMAINS
OVERHEAD...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS STRENGTHENS...TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE RISE. THIS SPELLS WET TRADES PARTICULARLY FOR WINDWARD
LOCATIONS...BUT THE STRONG WINDS AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
SHOWERS TO REACH AND FORM OVER LEEWARD AREAS. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS.

THE ECMWF HAS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES FORECAST AT 500 MB...GETTING
AS COLD AS -12 C OVER KAUAI SUNDAY. THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE CLOSER TO
-10 C. NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ABOUT -8 C. BOTH OVERNIGHT
SOUNDINGS HAD NEAR NORMAL 500 MB TEMPERATURES.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
ISLANDS SHOULD WEAKEN...SO EXPECT THE STRONG TRADES TO WEAKEN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL WORK THEIR WAY IN...AS THE FRONT COULD RETROGRADE BACK
ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT MODERATE NORTH SWELL WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE
NORTHWEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. A LARGE...SHORT-PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS.
A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE ON TUESDAY AND BUILD
TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.

AS TRADES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE POSTED OVER MOST...IF NOT ALL...COASTAL WATERS. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS. EXPECT THE TRADES TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...
THE AIRMET FOR MTN OBSC OVR THE INTERIOR MTNS OF KAUAI WILL LIKELY
BE EXTENDED FROM 16Z TO 18Z. OTHERWISE...THE PREVAILING FLYING COND
IS VFR. THERE WILL STILL BE BRIEF MVFR CEILING AND VIS WITH THE
WIDELY DISPERSED SHOWERS RIDING IN WITH THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THE
LARGER ISLANDS. COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS...HOWEVER...WILL NOT
WARRANT AN AIRMET FOR MTN OBSC FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

HVY SHRA MAY RESUME OVR INTERIOR KAUAI AND OAHU AFT 22Z WHICH MAY
WARRANT AN AIRMET FOR MTN OBSC.

TEMPO MOD TURB BTN FL330 AND FL400...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE JET
STREAM...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 090400 UTC.

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...LAU

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FXHW60 PHFO 070139
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED NOV 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS AGAIN
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING A WET TRADE WIND PATTERN TO THE ISLANDS INTO THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES SATURDAY WILL
INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BY MONDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR MOLOKAI AND A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR KAUAI ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS SHOW THE
RESULTING BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
BOUNDARIES HAVE WEAKENED THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS. AS
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FORMED OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LIGHT WINDS THAT ALLOWED FOR SEA BREEZES.

THE GFS HAS THE REMAINS OF THE BOUNDARY PASSING OVER THE ISLANDS
TOMORROW...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE LIGHT WIND FLOW. SATELLITE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES SHOW SIMILAR VALUES OVER AND UPSTREAM
OF THE ISLANDS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHER POPS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THAN TODAY...WITH THE CRAS BEING THE WETTEST.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS STARTING WITH TOMORROW AFTERNOON TRENDING THEM
TOWARDS THE CRAS DUE TO THE RESULTS OF TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ATTEMPT TO BRING TRADE WINDS
BACK TO THE ISLANDS. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT TRADES ON
FRIDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES FOUND
STATEWIDE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...WHICH WOULD KEEP A WET TRADE WIND
PATTERN OVER THE ISLANDS.

.MARINE...
AS WINDS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

A MODERATE NORTH SWELL WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY THEN DROP TO SMALL
LEVELS FOR FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL THIS
WEEKEND. A LARGE...SHORT-PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND ALONG WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS.

.AVIATION...
LGT/VAR WINDS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE
PRODUCING SHRA/+RA OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS...MAINLY OAHU. A SHALLOW
SHEARLINE WILL ALSO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL -SHRA/-DZ ON KAUAI AND ADJ
WTRS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING EWD THRU TONIGHT. SHRA/BR WILL SHIFT
BACK TO WINDWARD TERRAIN AFT 07/04Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF LGT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON TCU/+RA EXPECTED THU 07/22Z-08/03Z.

AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. THIS
MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE JET STREAM ALF IS
PRODUCING CHOP AOA FL320 AFFECTING MAINLY HIGH LVL TRAFFIC SO AIRMET
TANGO WILL ALSO REMAIN POSTED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...DEJESUS

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FXUS63 KFGF 080939
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
339 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...
MANY CHALLENGES THIS FCST PERIOD. FIRST OFF...CLOUD COVER TODAY.
AREAS OF CLEAR SKY IN EASTERN FCST AREA AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG
FORMING. ALSO HAVE AERAS OF FOG THAT FORMED UNDERNEATH A CLEAR
HOLE EARLIER IN THE EVENING IN THE COOPESTOWN-VALLEY CITY AREAS.
SO WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG TIL 16Z. LOW STRATUS COVERS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND ERN ND AND IS TRYING TO SPREAD EAST. FOR
TODAY...RAP MODEL HANGS MOISTURE AROUND IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER
MOST OF THE DAY...BUT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND INCREASES DURING THE
DAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE VALLEY...BUT DIRECTION NOT FAVORABLE
FOR BIG BURNOFF OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IF LOW CLOUDS DID BURN OFF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO MOSTLY CLOUDY IDEA ALL BUT
FAR EAST SEEMS GOOD TODAY. TEMPS WILL WARM SLOWLY TODAY AND IDEA
OF LOW TO MID 20S STILL OK WITH SOME UPPER 20S OR AROUND 30 FAR
SOUTHWEST IN GWINNER AREA DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OFF SISSESTON HILLS.

WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE THRU LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO THE ERN FCST AREA SATURDAY. SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY ESP INTO ERN ND. WILL HANG ON TO CLOUDS AND VERY LOW
CHC OF PRECIP SATURDAY IN BDE-BJI-ADC AREAS PER PREV FCST AND GFS
MODEL IDEA OF SOME SATURATION AND LIGHT QPF.

LOTS OF QUESTIONS REGARDING UPCOMING SYSTEM. STILL QUITE THE MODEL
SPREAD AS 00Z-06Z NAM AND ITS LIKE MODELS SUCH AS THE SREF AND
CRAS MODEL VIA UW-MADISON MAINTAIN A FARTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST
TRACK OF SFC LOW TO JUST NORTHWEST OF SIOUX FALLS THEN TOWARD ST
CLOUD WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH AND A BIG AREA OF SNOW ALL THE
WAY BACK TO WRN ND AND INTO MANITOBA. 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF REMAIN
PRETTY CONSISTENT AND USED FOR THIS FCST AND PREFERRED BY HPC.
IDEA IS SFC LOW TO BE IN FAR NW IOWA 18Z SUN THEN TRACK TOWARD
SOUTHEASTERN MN 00Z MON. UPPER LOW A BIT FARTHER NORTHWEST FAVORS
MAIN DEF ZONE SNOW FROM ERN SD INTO FAR SE ND INTO NORTHEASTERN
MN. HPC SNOWFALL GRAPHIC HAS 6 INCH LINE ROX-GFK-JMS WITH 10-12 IN
FAR SE ND AND WCNTRL MN. TIMING OF SNOW HAS IT REACHING SE ND JUST
PAST 06Z SPREAD AND REACHING NE ND/NW MN NR 12Z SUN. NOTED THAT
00Z UKMET AND 00Z GEM REMAIN A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND LESS WRAPPED
UP WITH PRECIP AND WOULD ONLY GIVE PRECIP TO FAR SE ND INTO MN AND
LEAVE MOST OF NORTHEASTERN ND WITH WAY LESS PRECIP.

COORD WITH BIS/DLH LEAD TO ISSUANCE OF WINTER STORM WATCHES
STARTING LATE NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF A ROX-GFK-JMS LINE.

FOR GFS/ECMWF SOLNS...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KTS
SUSTAINED IN THE VALLEY LATE SUN AFTN-NIGHT. AFTER COORD DID
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS IN GRIDDS OVER ALL BLEND VALUES WHICH SEEMED
A BIT LOW. WILL MENTION BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PSBL BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY YET IN TRACK OF STORM AND WIND FIELD HESISTANT TO GO
BLIZZARD WATCH OFF THE BAT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT SOME LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER WITHIN BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX DURING THE DAY...BUT
925 MB WINDS AROUND 25-30 KTS AND DECENT MIXING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SOME BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING AT LEAST. MODELS DO NOT SHOW
MUCH COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...SO TEMPS LOOK TO BE
SEASONABLE FOR MONDAY.

FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE AIR MASS WILL BE OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN...SUPPORTING TEMPS NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HOWEVER...TEMPS MAY BE COOLER IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIER
SNOWFALL. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. 00Z MODELS DO
SUGGEST SOME ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY SUPPORTING LOW POPS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS RANGE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL VARIABILITY.

.AVIATION...
QUITE CHALLENGING TO TIME IF OR WHEN THE LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
BURN OFF. FOR BEMIDJI THINK BETTER CHC FOR THE LOWER CLOUDS/FOG TO
BURN OFF TO GIVE SOME SUN TODAY AS JUST ENOUGH DRIER AIR MAY
REMAIN IN THAT REGION THIS AFTN. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION IN THE
FAR NW MN AND ERN ND WILL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE...THOUGH WOULD
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO IMPROVE MODESTLY TO LOW END MVFR THIS AFTN. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME CLEARING HOLES DEVELOP HOWEVER. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS ESP IN THE VALLEY.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR NDZ038-039-049-052-053.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR NDZ027-029-030.

MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ003-024-027>032-040.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR MNZ001-002-005>009-013>017-022-023.

$$
RIDDLE/MAKOWSKI

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FXHW60 PHFO 120146
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST FRI JAN 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE STATE FROM
THE EAST...AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND
BREEZES. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR INTERIOR AND LEEWARD SECTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE WESTERN ISLANDS AS A WEAKENING FRONT
APPROACHES THE STATE.

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER AND TO
THE EAST OF THE STATE. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES...LOCATED NEAR KAUAI/OAHU AND OVER 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH IS LOCATED LESS THAN 150
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO. A STRONG HIGH IS LOCATED FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER 400
MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI...WHILE A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FAR TO THE
NORTHWEST. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND LIHUE SHOW AN OTHERWISE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH NO EFFECTIVE INVERSION. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
RANGE FROM 0.94 AT LIHUE TO 1.15 AT HILO. EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS GREATER MOISTURE
UPSTREAM...WITH PW VALUES UP TO 1.7 INCHES WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE
BIG ISLAND.

THE SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE ISLANDS TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING TO OUR
WEST ON SATURDAY. PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE
EASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS AREA HAS
STARTED TO SLOW...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WINDWARD COASTAL
WATERS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THE MAIN COMPLEX TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION IS
LOCATED ACROSS LEEWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA...AND LEEWARD AND
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS LEEWARD ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WINDWARD SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE PATTERN WILL
EVOLVE OVERNIGHT. THE GFS-LAMP IMPLIES THAT LAND BREEZES WILL WIN
OUT WITH WINDWARD BIG ISLAND CLEARING OUT...WHILE THE 12Z CRAS
INDICATES THAT THE EASTERN CONVECTION WILL SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS
THE BIG ISLAND. GIVEN THAT THE MAIN CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD
AND THAT MANY LOCATIONS CLEARED OUT LAST NIGHT...WILL LEAN TOWARD
THAT PATTERN AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. KEPT HIGHER POPS FOR WINDWARD
SECTIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

MODEL CROSS SECTION SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE THE FREEZING LEVEL ON THE
HILO SOUNDING IS OVER 13KFT...THE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHT IS BELOW
10KFT. AS CLOUDS INITIALLY REACH SUMMIT LEVEL...THEY COULD BE
SHALLOW ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION. DURING
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR
ICE NUCLEATION...WITH HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW BEING POSSIBLE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A CHANCE OF A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW...WHICH SHOULD COVER THIS SITUATION. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT MIGHT REACH THE
SUMMIT THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT APPLICABLE. IF THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER BECOME MORE CERTAIN...WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY FOR THE SUMMITS.

BY SATURDAY WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY BEHIND
THE TROUGH...PUTTING THE SMALLER ISLANDS IN A BLOCKED FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
LOCALIZED CIRCULATIONS...WITH ONSHORE SEA BREEZES DURING THE DAY AND
OFFSHORE LAND BREEZES AT NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL FOCUS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS LEEWARD MAUI AND BIG ISLAND. BY SUNDAY
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES START TO WARM...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
INSTABILITY AND CONSEQUENTLY THUNDER POTENTIAL. HOWEVER WITH WEAK
LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS...WE COULD STILL SEE HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN
WITH THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FRONT CURRENTLY FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
WILL HAVE REACHED THE ISLANDS. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL STAY NORTH OF THE STATE...WITH THE PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY AT OUR LATITUDE STARTING TO WEAKEN. THIS WEAKENING FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON MONDAY...THEN DISSIPATE ACROSS OAHU AND
MAUI COUNTY BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS KAUAI
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND OAHU ON MONDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH WILL MOVE IN NORTHWEST OF THE STATE.
WE SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND PATTERN...BUT
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

.MARINE...
THE STRONG HIGH FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE
FETCH OF STRONG WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS POINTED AT THE STATE. THESE
WINDS EXTEND FROM JUST UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS TO OVER 1500 MILES
EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE EASTERLY TRADE
SWELL WITH A LONGER THAN NORMAL PERIOD NEAR 11 SECONDS. WAVE HEIGHTS
AT THE NEARSHORE BUOYS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI...AND OAHU ARE
STARTING TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS. SURF HEIGHTS WILL
BUILD FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY START TO DIMINISH FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THE INCREASE IN THE SWELL
TONIGHT DOES CORRESPOND WITH A 2.5 FOOT HIGH TIDE LATE NIGHT...WHICH
COULD ENHANCE THE COASTAL IMPACTS FOR EXPOSED WINDWARD COASTS
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE...A REINFORCING LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD...AND MAY PRODUCE SURF JUST BELOW
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
OF SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS STARTING TUESDAY. SURF WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES AT LEAST THROUGH
MID-WEEK. A LARGER AND LONGER-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER LEEWARD TERMINALS WITH TEMPO MVFR
AT PHTO...AND ISOL MVFR AT PHLI. TEMPO MVFR EXPECTED ALONG WINDWARD
SLOPES IN CLD AND SHRA. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND LEEWARD HALEAKALA EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A TROUGH ALOFT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST IS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
TURBULENCE...AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE INTO SATURDAY.

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM HST SATURDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS...EXCEPT THE MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS AND MAALAEA BAY.

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...MORRISON

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 101635 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1035 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

.UPDATE...

HAVE PUSHED BACK PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL 21Z IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...AND ABOUT 23Z IN MILWAUKEE AND MADISON. THE
NAM12...GEM...SREF...CRAS SHOW LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION BEFORE
21Z. THE HRRR EVEN KEEPS THE FAR SOUTHWEST DRY UNTIL 22Z AND THE
IN HOUSE WRF THROUGH 00Z. AN ENSEMBLE OF HI RES MODELS...SPC
SSEO...EVEN SHOWS PRECIP STAYING SOUTH OF A MADISON TO LAKE
GENEVA LINE THROUGH 00Z AND THEN EVERYONE SEEING PRECIPITATION BY
03Z...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL NEEDS
TO BE DELAYED EVEN MORE.

A LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 37 IN
KENOSHA AND 23 IN LONE ROCK AND 24 IN SHEBOYGAN. NONE OF THE
MODELS ARE DOING A GREAT JOB OF CAPTURING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS IN THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...TEMPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY NEED TO BE
BUMPED UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

KICKER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ON THE WEST COAST WILL TAKE CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY OVER SW TEXAS ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS...OPEN IT AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED
WAVE AS UPPER JET BUCKLES NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S./SRN CANADA
IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN TROUGH.

FIRST SURGE OF MID-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE...ENHANCED BY 500-300MB DIFF
VORT ADVECTION WITH SHEARED VORTICITY IN AXIS OF SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH...LIFTS ACROSS SRN WI THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OF 100 MB OR MORE ON
FORECAST 280K AND 285K SURFACES UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON SUPPORT
LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW 10K FT ON CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THAT NEEDS TO SATURATE BEFORE ANY PRECIP REACHES THE
GROUND.

SATURATION WILL BE RAPID AROUND/AFTER 21Z. WILL TREND ONSET OF PCPN
FROM SW TO NE WITH LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. PW/S
RAPIDLY JUMPING FROM ABOUT 0.25 INCH LATE MORNING TO A MAX AROUND
1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT...OR 350-400 PCT OF NORMAL...AS GULF MOISTURE
FLOWS NWD AHEAD OF SURFACE WAVE. MAX FORCING/OMEGA BRINGS HEAVIEST
RAIN TO THE SOUTH AROUND 06Z...AND 09Z TO THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH
SOME TALL...SKINNY ELEVATED CAPE PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. NOT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THUNDER...BUT A RUMBLE OR TWO NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH SPEED OF 500 MB TROUGH AND TRACK OF VORT
MAX IN BASE OF TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE LEADS TO
DIFFERING PLACEMENT OF AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. WILL USE A
BLEND OF MODEL QPF AMOUNTS WHICH WILL BRING AROUND 1/2 INCH TO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UP TO 3/4 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH WITH THE BRIEF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CONTINUING
TO WIND DOWN AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. KEPT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE
MORNING...WITH THINGS TURNING DRY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY BE SOME
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES
BELOW RECORD VALUES.

KEPT MENTION OF FOG FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. TOUGH TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW MUCH FOG THERE WILL
BE IN THE EAST...ALL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS LEFT BY THEN.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE FOG IS DENSE FOR A WHILE...ESPECIALLY
AREAS FARTHER WEST WHERE THE SNOW IS DEEPER AND WILL HOLD ON LONGER.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT...SO KIND OF A PAIN FIGURING OUT FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS AND
SATURDAY HIGHS...AS A CHANGE IN FRONT TIMING WILL IMPACT THESE QUITE
A BIT. EITHER WAY THOUGH...WILL EVENTUALLY SEE TEMPS HEAD DOWNWARD
SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING...LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN CHILLIER.

KEPT CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AS IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BRUSH THE AREA. BEST CHANCE LOOKS
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A MILWAUKEE TO JANESVILLE LINE. UNLESS THIS
SYSTEM COMES FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...WOULD ONLY SEE
MAYBE UP TO AN INCH TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING. LOOKS DRY THEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL
BE COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH NEAR TO JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. COULD SEE HIGHS WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH CLOUDS
THICKENING/LOWERING...THEN CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY WITH
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL SETTLE IN AT ALL TAF SITES BY 03Z FRIDAY AND
STAY DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN UNTIL
18Z FRI AT KMKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID.

MARINE...

SOUTHEAST WINDS STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST
DECREASE FOR A TIME FRIDAY AS WEAKENING SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
REGION...THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z
SATURDAY...THOUGH IT MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED IF WAVES TO NOT SUBSIDE
AS EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY
FOR LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...MEB/SM
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 092209
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
409 PM CST WED JAN 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE CLEAR SKIES WERE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MOVED
INTO OUR SOUTH. THE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH WAA WILL ACT TO KEEP OUR
LOWS FROM GETTING TOO LOW. AT 925 MB...TEMPS GO FROM A RANGE OF
ABOUT -2C TO 3C AT 00Z TO ABOUT 2C TO 6C BY 06Z. RIGHT NOW...THE
LAYER OF SURFACE MOISTURE LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR FOG TONIGHT...BUT
COULD BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.

THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PRECIP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE NAM80 HAS ACTUALLY SPED UP THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP THOUGH. MEANWHILE...THE NAM12 AND CRAS SHOW
THE PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z. TRENDED TOWARDS THE LATER
ARRIVAL AS IT SEEMS TO BE THE CONSENSUS AND THE BETTER FORCING DOES
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER. THE BEST PVA FROM THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE EVENING. 925 TO 850 MB WAA ALSO
LOOKS BETTER LATER. HOWEVER...600 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS COULD HELP
OUT PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING.

PUT IN A WARMER MODEL FOR TOMORROW AS MOST MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY LOWER THAN THE OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. DESPITE CLOUDS...THINKING INCREASING WAA WILL HELP
BOOST TEMPERATURES A BIT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

A NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM ERN OK TO THE IL/IN
BORDER BY 12Z FRI WHILE THE SFC TROUGH TRACKS INTO SRN WI. LOW TO MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA THU EVENING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LGT-MDT RAINFALL.
PWS WILL INCREASE TO 1 INCH WITH A QPF CONSENSUS RANGING FROM 0.5
INCHES IN THE FAR WRN CWA TO NEARLY 0.70 INCHES IN THE EAST. RAIN
WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY AFTER 09Z ALONG WITH A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE PASSING SFC TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ADVECTION FOG ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF MKE THAT STILL
HAVE A SNOW COVER. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRI AM AND WILL
INCLUDE IN FORECAST AND HWO.

SSWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FOR FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO NE MN
BY 12Z SAT. HIGH TEMPS FOR FRI ARE CHALLENGING SINCE WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING FRI AFTERNOON BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN
THE ENTIRE DAY. WENT WITH MID 40S OVER THE EXPECTED SNOW COVER
AREAS WITH LOWER 50S IN FAR SE WI. SWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION
TO MAINTAIN MILD TEMPS FOR SAT NT ALTHOUGH COLD FROPA WILL MOVE
INTO THE WRN CWA EARLY SAT. COLD FROPA AND COLD ADVECTION TO
PREVAIL FOR SAT WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS
FOR THIS PERIOD REMAIN UNDER RECORD HIGH TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SAT NT AND SUN DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF SRN WI BEING ON THE WRN EDGE OF A PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE VICINITY OF WI FOR MON AND TUE. SWLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION
WILL DEVELOP FOR TUE NT AND WED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EWD ACROSS
FAR SRN CANADA. A POLAR AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MID AFTERNOON. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE AREA AND
DAY TIME MIXING DIMINISHES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OFF OF THE LOW HAVE SPREAD INTO THE AREA SOONER THAN
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...STILL THINKING THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW...WHEN PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE SOUTHWEST...AT MSN. EXPECTING GUSTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE THE LOW APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND A HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
DIMINISH. THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. THEN SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE NEARSHORE FOR LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MEB
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 142132
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 PM CST WED NOV 14 2012

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MAINLY ZONAL WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES.
CLOUDS TODAY WERE PRODUCED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH ONE
SHORTWAVE. THERE IS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SOME MORE WEAK
UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS ALL
OF WI THU AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THERE IS ONLY WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION
WITH THESE FEATURES. AS A RESULT EXPECT SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT TO BECOME MORE DENSE WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING FROM
WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER 700 MB RH. CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WEAKER
WINDS TONIGHT AND A LITTLE HIGHER DURING THE DAY.

925MB TEMPS AROUND 4C SUGGEST MIN TEMPS FROM 28 TO 33 ASSUMING A
WEAK TO MODERATE INVERSION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE
THICKER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...WHICH COULD
AFFECT THE MIN TEMP FORECAST. FOR NOW...DROPPED TEMPS QUICKLY IN THE
EVENING AND HAD THEM SLOWLY RISE IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY SHOULD REACH 50 TO 53 IN POST PLACES.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL JUST BARELY EXTEND INTO
WISCONSIN FROM THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH. MODELS AGREE
THAT WE WILL REMAIN DRY. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AS NVA TAKES
OVER...700 MB LIFT/RH DECREASES...AND 850 MB RH DECREASES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND MERGES WITH WHAT REMAINS OF THE HIGH CURRENTLY
ENCOMPASSING THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FOR
FRIDAY...THEN FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE PERIOD
AFTER THAT...WITH A FEW WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED THAT WOULD
JUST BRING SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER...MAINLY SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY.

ECMWF/GFS/GEM 925 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY WOULD GIVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S RANGE. THE NAM IS SHOWING MORE 925-850 WAA THOUGH...AND
THUS HAS HIGHER 925 MB TEMPS. MEANWHILE...THE CRAS IS COOLER.
LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM SOLUTION THOUGH. THE NAM IS ALSO A
BIT WARMER THAN OTHER MODELS ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARDS A
MORE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM.

A STRONGER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE THAN THE
GFS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF SOME. MEANWHILE...THE
GEM LOOKS VERY OVERDONE WITH A MUCH STRONGER CUT OFF LOW STACKED
WITH A SURFACE LOW. THE BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS ON
TUESDAY...BUT IT ISN/T VERY IMPRESSIVE. THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN AND NOW THE 12Z
ECMWF LOOKS MORE LIKE THAT SOLUTION. THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A MORE ZONAL
FLOW WITH SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY LOW LEVELS. PLAN ON
MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST THE EVENING. THEN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AGAIN ON THURSDAY. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
FROM 12 TO 18Z THU MORNING THROUGH AND THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AGAIN THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVERHEAD. AFTER STEADY SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EASTERLY ON FRIDAY.

.MARINE...

STEADY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AND A DECENT
FETCH WERE BUILDING WAVES UP TO 5 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS FROM
PORT WASHINGTON TO SHEBOYGAN THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND VEER SOUTHWEST...WAVES WILL TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE. WILL MAINTAIN THE ORIGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
END TIME OF 10Z/4AM TONIGHT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LMZ643.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEB

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 011959
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
259 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STEADY STRME OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SE
MO/NE AR UPPER LOW. PROGS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM MN INTO NW IA
PROGRESSES EAST THOUGH DAMPENS WITH 700 RH DECREASING. MEANWHILE 500
MILLIBAR SHOWS MAINLY SHEARED/CHANNELIZED VORTICITY WITH MAIN
CIRCULATION CENTER STAYING WELL SOUTH AND ANY QPF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH INLAND 925 TEMPS FAIRLY PLEASANT SO
STILL EXPECTING SOME LOWER 70S.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO LOW

THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z
NAM ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW STRUCTURE INTO ILLINOIS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE NAM IN BRINGING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS STILL FARTHER EAST WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS DUE TO HAVING
MAINLY AN OPEN WAVE STRUCTURE. THE 12Z CRAS IS SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF INITIALLY BUT THEN PULLS THE PRECIPITATION BACK AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW AND PRECIPITATION IS THE FARTHEST WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PREFER THE NAM/GFS FOR NOW...BUT NOT READY TO DISCOUNT THE 00Z ECMWF.
THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE NAM/GFS...BUT STILL NOT QUITE
AS FAR WEST.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO LOW

THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL LIFT THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT REACHES THE LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NAM/ECMWF ARE JUST A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS STILL
THE SLOWEST MODEL WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND
MUCH WARMER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THE NAM IS MORE OF A
CONSENSUS.

.LONG TERM...

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE GFS/ECMWF/06Z DGEX STILL HAVE A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.S. WITH THE 12Z GFS HAVING A MORE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.

ALL MODELS HAVE THE FORECAST AREA IN COOLER AIR BUT THE 00Z/12 ECMWF
IS ALONE WITH LESS OF AN INTRUSION OF COLD AIR...BUT IT ALSO
BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS DUE TO A
STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS ILLINOIS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A MORE SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT OF
THE DGEX AND IS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE 06Z DGEX. HOWEVER THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS PUSHED THE PRECIPITATION BACK NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO
PREFER THE 06Z DGEX.

THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH A LITTLE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THE ECMWF AND DGEX SHOW A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.S. WITH THE GFS HAVING THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH EXTEND
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN U.S.

THE LARGE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AREA WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINNING. MOISTURE WILL BA LACKING SO THE VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE GFS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND PREFER THE DRY
ECMWF.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR THIS PERIOD WITH DENSE HIGH CLOUDINESS
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM UPPER LOW WELL SOUTH. THIS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME DECREASE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT SHIFT NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXHW60 PHFO 200200
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED SEP 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND
BREEZES TO FORM THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRADES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
WINDWARD AREAS...MAINLY AT NIGHT...WHILE THE SEA BREEZES WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
STATE...BRINGING INCREASING TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.
THE TRADES MAY BE WET ON SUNDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE...WITH AN IMPULSE DIGGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF IT. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST OF MAUI COUNTY...AND IS HELPING
TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI. A
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. 00Z
SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND HILO SHOW WEAK INVERSIONS OF 8-10KFT...
WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
1.2-1.3 INCHES...WHICH ARE ALSO DOWN A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM THIS
MORNING. THE RAOBS AND RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW SURFACE WINDS
OUT OF THE EAST...BUT LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 900MB-700MB OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE TO THE
NORTHEAST.

THE COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL STALL AND WEAKEN...BUT
NOT BEFORE ERODING THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND SHIFTING IT SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE STATE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA HAS ALREADY
WEAKENED...WITH THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BUOY 51000 TO THE
NORTHEAST AND BUOY 51002 TO THE SOUTH HAVING DROPPED BY ABOUT A
MILLIBAR OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN WEAK ENOUGH
FOR LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES TO FORM AT SHELTERED LEEWARD AREAS TODAY.
LAND BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...
SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SEA
BREEZES EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE
COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EARLY AFTERNOON AMSU/SSMI BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY MATCHES WITH THE KAUAI SOUNDING...BUT
WAS TOO MOIST COMPARED TO THE HILO SOUNDING. EVEN IF THE AMOUNTS
ARE SLIGHTLY HIGH...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH
EXTENDING NEARLY 400 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. ONE
POSSIBILITY THOUGH IS THAT THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE MAY STAY
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...BEING STEERED ACROSS WINDWARD WATERS BY THE
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE GFS AND TO A LESSOR EXTENT THE NAM
DEPICT THIS SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF AND CRAS SHOW GREATER
MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS. GIVEN THAT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO
MAUI COUNTY...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MOIST SOLUTION WITH HIGHER POPS
FOR TONIGHT. RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS...
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS CLEARING OUT BY
SUNSET.

WITH AN EVEN LIGHTER GRADIENT EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...SEA BREEZES
WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY. THESE WILL FOCUS SHOWERS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND LEEWARD SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVE
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM...HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT A FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT REQUIRE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO REBUILD NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...
BUT REALLY STRENGTHENS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY...WITH SEA BREEZES LINGERING ACROSS
SHELTERED LEEWARD AREAS. TRADES RETURN FULLY ON SATURDAY...AND
STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THINS OUT ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW IT INCREASING AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST.

.AVIATION...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...BUT BRIEF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR
CIGS AND VIS AROUND SHOWERS COULD IMPACT ANY AREAS AROUND HAWAII.
CONVECTIVE CURRENTS OVER THE ISLANDS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED POCKETS OF
LOW LEVELS TURBULENCE DURING APPROACHES AND TAKEOFFS...AND WILL BE A
PRIMARY CONCERN WHILE DAYTIME HEATING OF THE LAND IS OCCURING. NO
AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT GIVEN THE SPARSE COVERAGE OF
TURBULENCE AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...BUT WILL BE MONITORING FOR
POSSIBLE ISSUANCES OF AIRMET SIERRA AND TANGO.

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL SLOWLY FADE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL FILL IN FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BEFORE
A LARGER ONE ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW DEEPENING FAR NORTH
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL GENERATE THIS SWELL...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THIS ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY. THIS SWELL
IS EXPECTED TO BOOST SURF TO ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE TRADE WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN TO 25 KT IN THE
WINDIER AREAS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI BY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL MAY COMBINE WITH LOCAL WIND
WAVES TO GENERATE COMBINED SEAS GREATER THAN 10 FEET ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST SWELL.

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...FOSTER

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXHW60 PHFO 191959
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST WED SEP 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND
BREEZES TO FORM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRADES WILL BRING SHOWERS
TO WINDWARD AREAS...MAINLY AT NIGHT...WHILE THE SEA BREEZES WILL
BRING SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE STATE...BRINGING STRONGER TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND. THE TRADES MAY BE WET ON SUNDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE...WITH AN IMPULSE DIGGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF IT. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER MAUI COUNTY...HAVING HELPED TO
ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER OAHU EARLIER IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING ABOUT 450 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED
ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND
HILO SHOW WEAK INVERSIONS OF 10-12KFT...AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF
1.3-1.4 INCHES. 16Z-18Z ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF HONOLULU ARE SIMILAR
TO THE RAOBS AND ALSO SHOW SURFACE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST...BUT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 900MB-700MB OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST

THE COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL STALL AND WEAKEN...BUT
NOT BEFORE ERODING THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND SHIFTING IT SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE STATE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA HAS ALREADY
WEAKENED...WITH THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BUOY 51000 TO THE
NORTHEAST AND BUOY 51002 TO THE SOUTH HAVING DROPPED BY ABOUT A
MILLIBAR OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GRADIENT WAS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR
LAND BREEZES TO FORM LAST NIGHT AT MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING
LIHUE/HONOLULU/KAHULUI. LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES ON THURSDAY.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE
COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EARLY MORNING MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWED THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES OF 1.4-1.6 EXTENDING
OVER 500 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. ONE CONCERN THOUGH IS
THAT THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE MAY STAY NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...
BEING STEERED ACROSS WINDWARD WATERS BY THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. THE 12Z GFS AND TO A LESSOR EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT THIS
SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF AND CRAS SHOW GREATER MOISTURE OVER
THE ISLANDS. GIVEN THAT THE PW VALUES NEAR KAUAI ARE ALREADY
HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER MOISTURE SOLUTION.

WITH THE LIGHT TRADE WIND PATTERN...LEEWARD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST ACTIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY NEED TO UPDATE THIS
MORNING TO INCREASE POPS/CLOUDS TO FEATURE MORE LEEWARD SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AS
OFFSHORE DRAINAGE FLOWS BEGIN TO REDEVELOP. SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
SECTIONS WILL BE MOST ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
HELPED TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE KOOLAUS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT UNDER THE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE ELEVATED INVERSIONS AND
AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT REQUIRE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.AVIATION...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...BRIEF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AND MVFR CIGS AND VIS AROUND SHOWERS COULD IMPACT ANY AREAS AROUND
HAWAII TODAY AND TONIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BUT CONVECTIVE CURRENTS OVER THE ISLANDS
MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED POCKETS OF LOW LEVELS TURBULENCE DURING
APPROACHES AND TAKEOFFS. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT GIVEN
THE SPARSE COVERAGE...BUT WILL BE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCES
FOR AIRMET SIERRA AND TANGO.

.MARINE...
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THROUGH TODAY...WITH SMALL SURF EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS
WEEK. A LOW DEEPENING FAR NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS TODAY WILL
SEND A NORTHWEST SWELL IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THIS ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY...AND COULD BOOST SURF TO
ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES ON SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...FOSTER

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KEKA 231729
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1029 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2012

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN
TRINITY AND FAR EASTERN MENDOCINO COUNTIES. ADDED ISOLATED LIGHTING
STRIKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE 12Z NAM CAME IN WITH A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME CAPE MAKING IT
OVER THE CAP. THIS MAKES SENSE WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKY MTNS. SOME ACCUS IS SHOWING UP OVER LAKE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
MENDOCINO COUNTY HINTING AT SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. ALSO THIS
AGREES WITH SPC MORNING UPDATE THAT EXTENDED THE 10 PCT THUNDER
LINE OVER US. THE CRAS IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS
IN THAT AREA. ALL THAT SAID...DONT EXPECT THERE WILL BE MORE THAN
A COUPLE STRIKES IF STORMS DO FORM...HOWEVER WITH DRY FUELS WANTED
TO MAKE SURE WE DIDNT MISS IT. MKK

.SYNOPSIS... AFTER A FEW CLOUDS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY DISSIPATE
THIS MORNING EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR BOTH THE COAST AND
INTERIOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING
INLAND.

.SHORT TERM...

.LONG TERM...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2012/

SYNOPSIS... AFTER A FEW CLOUDS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY DISSIPATE
THIS MORNING EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR BOTH THE COAST AND
INTERIOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING
INLAND.

UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE ON THE SKY COVER THIS MORNING MAINLY
FOR THE MENDOCINO COAST. A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED
NORTH TO PT ARENA AND MENDOCINO. STILL EXPECTED TO THIS TO AT
LEAST PARTIALLY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST
CRESCENT CITY HAS CLEARED AND EUREKA LOOKS ON TRACK TO CLEAR BY
MIDDAY. MKK

PREV DISCUSSION...
LOCALIZED AREA OF COASTAL STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY
AND THE EEL RIVER VALLEY UP TO ABOUT TRINIDAD. SUSPECT THESE CLOUDS
ARE RATHER SHALLOW AND OVERALL COVERAGE IS MUCH LESS THAN PAST
MORNINGS WITH WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY FURTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE ORCA BORDER. GUIDANCE AND CLIMO WITH THIS
PATTERN SUGGESTS MOST OF THE STRATUS SHOULD ERODE FAIRLY
QUICKLY...BY MID-MORNING OR SO. THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NAM/WRF-ARW INDICATE SOME STRATUS
CREEPING INTO THE LOWER EEL RIVER VALLEY UP TO SRN HUMBOLDT BAY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE OTHER ISSUE MAY BE A COASTAL WIND REVERSAL
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WORKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD VERY WELL BRING SOME SHALLOW
STRATUS TO THE IMMEDIATE MENDOCINO COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
MORNING...WHERE WE CURRENTLY ARE FORECASTING CLEAR SKIES. ON
WEDNESDAY THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL SWITCH BACK ONSHORE WITH THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW...WHILE THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE PACIFIC HIGH AND THERMAL LOW WEAKENS DRAMATICALLY.
THIS WILL ALLOW STRATUS TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE COAST OUTSIDE OF
PROTECTED AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO IN NRLY FLOW. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POOR MIXING ALLOWING FOR DEEP
INLAND PENETRATION OF STRATUS AND SLOWER BURN OFF...WITH THE NORTH
COAST STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOONS. BY SUNDAY
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WHICH WILL SUPPRESS THE MARINE LAYER
BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN.

FOR THE INTERIOR...THIS PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOWER
RH VALUES AND POORER OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WITH HOT TEMPERATURES. 100
DEGREE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR MANY OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AWAY FROM THE NORTH COAST SO FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL
BE MINIMIZED. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND RH WILL RISE BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT MARINE PUSH. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SO THAT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
AFTERNOONS. MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CLIP THE YOLLA BOLLYS
AND TRINITY COUNTY TODAY BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY WELL
TO THE EAST...EVIDENCED BY THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR THE
SIERRAS. MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT UP HERE WITH
MORE SUBSIDENCE AND A MID-LEVEL CAP. WEAK JET STREAK AND SOME MINOR
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SOME DECENT MODIFIED TT VALUES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECT THERE TO BE A CAP AND OVERALL DRY
SOUNDING OUTSIDE OF SHALLOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. LONG STORY
SHORT...JUST HAVE SOME GHOST POPS FOR NOW. AAD

AVIATION...AREA OF LOW CIGS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS N OF CAPE
MENDO AND EXTENDING WELL UP THE EEL RIVER VALLEY HAS REMAINED ABOUT
UNCHANGED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS PER IR FOG SAT IMAGERY. KACV
SITS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD MASS WITH OVC CIGS BUT NO FOG AS
YET. KCEC HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED VSBYS BELOW 1SM IN FOG...POSSIBLY
MORE RADIATIONAL THAN ADVECTION DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS ERODE FAIRLY
RAPIDLY ALONG THE INLAND EDGES. /SEC

MARINE...HAVE STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE ONGOING GALE WARNINGS AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. DID CHOOSE TO END THE N NEAR SHORE ADVISORY
AT THE SAME TIME AS THE N OFFSHORE GALE WARNING. WIND GUSTS IN THE N
OFFSHORE ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO 45 KTS...PARTICULARLY
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS ALSO
LIKELY SW OF PT ST GEORGE AND CAPE MENDO. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY TUE NIGHT AND WED. /SEC

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY PZZ450.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY PZZ470.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY PZZ455.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY PZZ475.

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FXUS66 KEKA 201050
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
340 AM PDT WED JUN 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A COOLER AND WETTER
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE WEST
COAST TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL WEST OF THE AREA. THUS CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE CWA. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOW BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD RESTRICT COASTAL
STRATUS FORMATION TONIGHT...BUT A FEW PATCHY AREAS MAY DEVELOP NEAR
HUMBOLDT BAY. AS OF 2AM THE CURRENT TEMP AT WFO EKA IS ALREADY DOWN
TO 46 SO WITH CONDITIONS VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT ANOTHER RECORD
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE OLD RECORD OF 44F ON THE 20TH LAST SET IN
2003...THE ONLY MONKEY WRENCH FOR THAT TO HAPPEN IS IF THE STRATUS
REFORMS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INLAND ON WEDNESDAY
THE STRATUS OFF THE COAST SHOULD SURGE EASTWARD WITH CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
SHOULD BE A NICE WINDOW FOR COASTAL STRATUS...FOG AND DRIZZLE.
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO THUR MORNING ...ADDED THOSE ELEMENTS TO
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A DECENT MARINE PUSH.

A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW NEAR 27N 134W WILL BE CAUGHT UP BY AN
ADVANCING LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY
PULLING THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS
INDICATE THE LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ON THURSDAY BUT TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA. STILL EYEING THURSDAY AND
LATE THURSDAY AS A POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
...BUT AXIS OF INSTABILITY DEFINITELY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOKS VERY DRY WITH NO INDICATION OF ANY TAP OF
MOISTURE TO AID DEVELOPMENT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE ALWAYS
PRESENT MID LEVEL CAP. CRAS IMAGERY SHOWS NO INDICATION OF ANY
DEVELOPMENT AND SPC PERFECT PROG ONLY SHOWS A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
1 CG STRIKE. NONETHELESS CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE WEAK
INSTABILITY AND THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. SO WILL KEEP THE
CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EXTREME EAST SIDE OF THE CWA. ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EKA
CWA WILL ULTIMATELY BE CARRIED INTO MFR/STO CWA UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW. (SEE FWX DISC BELOW) AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHEN COOL AIR
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE CWA INCREASING INSTABILITY. THURSDAY NIGHT A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
PINWHEELING SHORTWAVES AROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY PERIODS EXPECTED BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. GFS VERY
AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF QPF AND GIVEN THE 564DM LINE FALLS WELL SOUTH
OF THE CWA HAVE BUMPED POPS AND QPF UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. RP/JT

.AVIATION...OFFSHORE FLOW IS CREATING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE AN AREA OF
IFR STRATUS IN THE EEL RIVER VALLEY...AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND NORTH
TO TRINIDAD. THIS SHOWS UP WELL ON THE 11-3.9 SATELLITE. AS OF 2AM
ACV IS SHOWING IFR CIGS. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKLY OFFSHORE FROM
CEC TO MFR SO EXPECT STRATUS MAY BE IN AND OUT THIS MORNING. AFTER
SUNRISE EXPECT STRATUS WILL CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST WILL STAY MAINLY
CLEAR. MODELS SHOW SOME STRATUS ALONG THE COAST SHOWING UP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
EVENING. THIS EVENING STRATUS LOOKS TO BRING IFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY
BACK INTO THE AREA AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY SPREADING TO THE MAJORITY OF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING THE RETURN OF
THE STRATUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MKK

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN WITH AN AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO
DROP BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS THE WATERS SO ENDED ALL GALES. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL TAKE THEIR TIME DIMINISHING BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL BY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DROPS DOWN THE
THE COAST AND SITS OVER OREGON BEFORE MOVING OUT ON TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF DIFFERENT WAVES MOVING AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING...HOWEVER THE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AT A FEW VARIOUS TIMES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THE TIMING TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

SEAS LOOK TO BE MAINLY LIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A LONG
PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA STARTING ON FRIDAY AND
BUILDING TO AROUND 3 FEET AT 16 SECONDS FOR THE WEEKEND. MKK

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL EYEING THURSDAY AND LATE THURSDAY AS A POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TRINITY COUNTY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOKS VERY DRY WITH NO INDICATION OF ANY TAP OF
MOISTURE TO AID DEVELOPMENT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE ALWAYS
PRESENT MID LEVEL CAP. CRAS IMAGERY SHOWS NO INDICATION OF ANY
DEVELOPMENT AND SPC PERFECT PROG ONLY SHOWS A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
1 CG STRIKE. SO AS WE GET CLOSER IT IS LOOKING VERY UNIMPRESSIVE.
NONETHELESS CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EXTREME EAST SIDE OF
THE CWA. COMING OFF THE HEELS OF DECENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE HOT AND DRY. THUS IF ANY
STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL LIKELY BE DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN OFF THE COAST
AND THE AIRMASS WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AND MOISTEN UP. THIS COOL
AND MOIST PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TONKIN

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.

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FXUS63 KMKX 302102
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
402 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO WESTERN WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK JET STREAK AT 250MB WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SKIM
JUST TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS FORCING FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...WITH A
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST AND GOOD
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS ON HOW MUCH THE BEST FORCING WILL EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN MOST
COUNTIES...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT IN PRECIP COVERAGE TOWARDS I-94.

.TOMORROW...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WISCONSIN...ALLOWING
THE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP TO CONTINUE. AS
THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN...700 MB LIFT SHOWS THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL ROTATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
THERE IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL
REACH TOMORROW...WITH THE GEM...SREF...AND CRAS SHOWING SOME PRECIP
AT MKE...BUT THE NAM12 KEEPING MKE DRY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.
925 MB TEMPS SHOW UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60S IN OUR NORTHWEST...AND
LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

500 MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND REACHES LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG 700 MB UPWARD MOTION EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
HIGH 700 MB RH EXTENDS WEST INTO THE EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN
AREA...BUT IS RELATIVELY DRY OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. 850 MB RH
AROUND 70 PCT AND AT 950 MB RH IS AROUND 50 PCT. THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES ACROSS OHIO AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL KEEP THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS WELL EAST. WILL CONTINUE THE
DRIER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND WILL LOWER THEM FROM CURRENT GRIDS.

STILL WILL LIKE TO MENTION A SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
EAST...GIVEN THE UPPER LOW LOCATION.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

THE MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH WISCONSIN IN THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH.

MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN SATURDAY.
THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON SHOWER POTENTIAL WITH RATHER
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 9-10C/KM FROM THE SURFACE TO
700 MB. THERE APPEARS ENOUGH 850-700 MB MOISTURE FOR THE DIURNAL
SHOWERS ALONG WITH CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

GFS/ECMWF/DGEX ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR IN KEEPING A LARGE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN REMAINS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH A LARGE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

ON MONDAY A SHORTWAVE ROTATION AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH CLIPS
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH A SECOND TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 9.5 C/KM REMAIN SUNDAY...BUT GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE STABLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH DRIER MID
LEVELS. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

OVER TIME THIS PATTERN GRADUALLY MOVES EAST ON THE GFS/DGEX WITH
THE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWER MVFR CLOUDS CURRENTLY AT MKE AND ENW ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD DEVELOP WITH THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT/TOMORROW...MAINLY AT
MSN AND ENW...WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP. WINDS HAVE
TURNED MORE NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER TOWARDS EASTERLY TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
TAF PERIOD IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL GET TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MEB
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HENTZ

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FXUS66 KEKA 231039
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
332 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR MORE SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH COAST. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
NORTH COAST WILL ARRIVE LATER LATER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO MENDOCINO COUNTY FRIDAY. DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW MAINTAINING
SOME WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LEADING INTO THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE
THE CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GIVING RISE
TO SOME BREAKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANYMORE RAINFALL
TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TOMORROW AS A RATHER
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LACK MOISTURE AND
MUCH OF A SFC REFLECTION ALONG THE COAST BUT WILL CARRY PLENTY OF
COLD AIR ALOFT. BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW AND LF QUAD
OF A JET STREAK SWINGING SOUTHWARD MAY GIVE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA ITS BEST SHOT OF SOME RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE
FOR FRIDAY...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS MENDOCINO COUNTY.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS MINIMAL AS MID TO UPPER
FLOW WORKS FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH.
THIS IS GENERALLY A POOR DIRECTION CLIMATICALLY FOR TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS LAND PORTIONS OF NW CA. PERFECT PROG ANALYSIS
SHOWS ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OF A STRIKE OR TWO ON FRIDAY BUT THAT IS
ACROSS OUR EASTERN FRINGES. CRAS IMAGERY GIVES NO HINTS AT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AND SIERRA...THUS KEPT TSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST. ONCE THIS
FEATURE EXITS TO THE EAST...A FLATTENING RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TENDING ONSHORE LEADING TO WARMER TEMPS
INLAND AND OVERNIGHT/AM LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST. LONGER
RANGE PATTERN HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY VERY WARM AND DRY FOR NEXT WEEK
WITH PERHAPS MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW. AAD/JT

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
NORTH OF THE CAPE. CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED INTO VFR THIS MORNING WHICH
IS COUNTER TO MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH WANT IFR CONDITIONS. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST AND THESE
COULD LOWER CIGS FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE CAPE.
OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT TODAY SHOULD ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE...OR REDEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...THROUGH THE DAY. A NEW
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT UKI. RPA

.MARINE...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL STRENGTHEN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOUTH OF THE CAPE TODAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
INTENSIFYING THE NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED TODAY TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. A
NORTHWEST SWELL NEAR 7 FT AT 10 SECONDS COMBINED WITH BUILDING SHORT
PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL RESULT IN COMBINED SEAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT BETWEEN 12 AND 15 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
SEAS CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODELS INDICATE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LEADING TO
CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS. RPA

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SCA NOON WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM PDT SATURDAY PZZ455.
SCA NOON WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM PDT SUNDAY PZZ475.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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FXUS63 KMKX 102004
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
304 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
DECK SUPPORTED BY WEAK INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL IN RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BACK EDGE OF VORTICITY
MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. DOWNWARD MOTION WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER IN THE EAST THIS EVENING...BEFORE FINALLY
MIXING OUT LATE TONIGHT. MAY SEE AREA OF CLOUDS TRY TO HANG ON NEAR
THE LAKE...BUT LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WOULD STAY OFFSHORE. WESTERN END OF ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MAY BRUSH THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL.

BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WITHIN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL MIXING WILL LINGER UNTIL EARLY EVENING AS WELL. PRESSURE
GRADIENT THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE.

CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL TO 28 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT OR LOWER...SO WENT WITH A FREEZE WARNING FOR GREEN LAKE
TO ROCK COUNTIES AND WEST FROM 06Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS IN THE EAST LEFT MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR
LOWS TO REACH THAT THRESHOLD...SO LEFT THOSE AREAS OUT WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT ONSHORE NEAR THE LAKE BY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 40S...WITH 50S INLAND PER 925MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND FROM
MINNESOTA TO MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. NAM/GFS AND 12Z CRAS ALL TAKES
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
DEPARTING NORTHWEST FLOW. ONLY THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS WISCONSIN.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. SOME FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER
THE NAM THEN SETS UP A SLIGHT LAND BREEZE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE NIGHT WITH A FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALL MODELS PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
ON FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TAKING PRECIPITATION
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE NAM/ECMWF
IN AT BEST REACHING AREAS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON AROUND SUNRISE.
ONLY THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SHEBOYGAN AREA DRY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE OTHER MODELS BRINGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE 850 MB JET BRINGS 10C 850 MB DEWPOINTS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
GFS IS STILL A LITTLE FASTER IN PUSHING A SURFACE LOW INTO MINNESOTA
WITH THE NAM/ECMWF AND DEGEX ALL SLOWER AND WEAKER AND IS PREFERED.
ELEVATED CAPE OF AROUND 60 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF LIFTED FROM 5
THSD FT. PREFER MAINLY RAIN AT THIS POINT WITH LOW THUNDER POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...

.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

BOTH THE 12Z GFS/06Z DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF ESTABLISH A MID/UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MODELS EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR NEW MEXICO.

THE 12Z GFS KEEPS THE MAIN MID LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE WEST NEAR FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX PUSHES
THE UPPER LOW A LITTLE FASTER WITH A TROUGH PUSHING TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

PREFER THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW ON THE 00Z
ECMWF...REACHING FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER
THE 12Z GFS...THAT HAS THE LOW REACHING FAR EASTERN QUEBEC. THE
06Z DGEX IS EVEN SLOWER WITH A WEAKER LOW NEAR THE IOWA/MINNESOTA
BORDER.

APPEARS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...WITH
THE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MORE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AT TAF
SITES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT
MADISON...BEFORE MIXING OUT LATER THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THEN EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE SOME SCATTERED VFR
CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.

EASTERN TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR CEILINGS LINGER
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SCATTER OUT BY LATER TONIGHT.
SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...THOUGH
THINK MOST OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
EASTERLY FLOW MAY PUSH THESE MORE INLAND.

BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET...WITH GUSTS UP TO
27 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN VEER NORTH WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THESE
WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEAST TO EAST AT THE EASTERN SITES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES TOWARD
THE OPEN WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 02Z WEDNESDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE UNTIL SUNSET...WITH THE GUSTS
SUBSIDING WITH NIGHTFALL. 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES LINGER TOWARD THE OPEN
WATERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ046-047-
056-057-062-063-067>069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 262115
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

CLOUDY SKIES WILL HANG ON INTO THE EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING
AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A COUPLE MODELS SHOWING SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THIS EVENING TIED WITH SHORTWAVE...BUT OPTED TO REMOVE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES GIVEN WEAK LIFT...UNIMPRESSIVE
SOUNDINGS...AND VERY WEAK RADAR RETURNS UPSTREAM.

SKIES SHOULD START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW WITH NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM LIKELY MOVING INTO AREAS WEST OF
MADISON BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME SUN EXPECTED FOR A TIME...WENT
MID 30S MOST PLACES...TO UPPER 30S FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE THE SUN WILL
SHINE THE LONGEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

MODELS BRING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE TROUGH IS AGAIN A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE
AND ALL SPREAD QPF ACROSS ALL OF FORECAST AREA FROM 6PM CST TO
MIDNIGHT..WITH VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 12Z CRAS HAS A
MUCH WEAKER TROUGH AND IN GENERAL LIGHTER QPF MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT FOR A SPURIOUS PRECIP MAX OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

NAM PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 0.40 INCHES WITH
INGREDIENTS BASED TECHNIQUE SOWING MODERATE Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
IN THE 850 MB AND 700 MB LAYER WITH 2 G/KG PUSHING INTO THE FAR
SOUTH PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 6PM FRIDAY AT 700. THE NAM 285K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS UPWARD ISENTROPIC OMEGA OF 3 UBARS/SEC
WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OF LESS THAN 10 MB. ALTHOUGH
THE BEST LIFT OCCURS BEFORE SATURATION.

GFS PAINTS MORE PRECIP EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH DUE TO MORE
DYNAMICS/MORE MOISTURE...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM HAS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF.
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE APPEARS RATHER STRONG FOR THE MEAGER
QPF.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WHILE A
SECOND LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TOWARD NORTHEAST IOWA ON THE 12Z GFS AND NAM. ISENTROPIC LIFT
OCCURS AGAIN BEFORE SATURATION...AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ARE NOT AS LOW. MODELS GENERATE AROUND 0.05 OF QPF LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF
GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE LIGHT
SNOW INITIALLY BUT THEN WOULD LIKELY TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING
FAR SOUTH THEN JUST DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES IN 12Z GFS AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF WITH THE
ECMWF TAKING A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MUCH FARTHER
NORTH AND QUICKER THAN THE GFS. THIS LEADS TO THICKNESS ADVECTION
PATTERNS BEING OUT OF PHASE...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION TIMING
DIFFERENCES.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CONDITIONS STILL RANGING FROM LIFR TO IFR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A
FEW MVFR REPORTS...AS STRATUS LINGERS ACROSS SRN WI. CONDITIONS NOT
EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE UNTIL THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA AND RETURN
THINGS TO VFR.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THEN FRIDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF
MADISON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. SNOW THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.MARINE...

A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
PICKUP BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING WINDS BEHIND THE LOW LATER IN THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WEST WINDS WILL THEN LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.

LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KTAE 041502 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
958 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...We experienced our first hard freeze of the winter
season across the region this morning with low temperatures ranging
from the upper teens to middle 20s. A few record temperatures were
tied including Tallahassee with a low of 18 and Apalachicola at 26
degrees. This was our coldest morning since January 14th of last
year. Our temperatures will rebound into the mid 50s this afternoon
with only a few cirrus late in the day. We will update zones shortly
only to remove the hard freeze headline after the warning expires.

.MARINE...Winds and seas will remain very light through today.
Offshore winds will increase slightly tonight in the wake of a weak
cold front. However, winds and seas will remain below headline
criteria. Onshore flow will develop by this weekend with winds still
expected to remain below headline levels.

.AVIATION (through 12z Thursday)...The 06z set of TAFs still looks
in good shape and only minor tweaks were made to the wind direction.
The previous discussion is as follows: most models do show an
increase in mid-upper level humidity towards the 00-06z Thursday
time frame and CRAS model simulated cloud cover shows a slight
increase from the W/NW this evening. Therefore, some scattered high
clouds were added after 00z. Other than that, plenty of sunshine is
expected with light winds.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS(630 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2012)...

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
While the deep upper trough continues to pull northeast and away
from the region, cold high pressure remains parked over the deep
south with a hard freeze in progress across the forecast area.
Thicknesses will be on the rise today with temperatures recovering
into the mid 50s.

A shortwave trough will help to reinforce the mean trough over
the eastern states tonight. However, no additional cold air is
expected with the associated weak sfc front. With the gradient
still very weak tonight, expect temperatures to drop back near the
freezing mark. Coldest temperatures are expected over the eastern
zones where winds should fully decouple.

A more substantial warming trend will begin Thursday as an upper
ridge builds over the Southeast. High temperatures should reach
the mid 60s on Thursday and the upper 60s for Friday. Low
temperatures Friday morning should stay above freezing, reaching
the mid to upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through next Wednesday)...
There will be an interesting evolution from a weak and generally
zonal flow pattern at the beginning of the long term period towards
a highly amplified flow pattern with a western ridge and eastern
trough just beyond the scope of this forecast period. Oddly enough,
the majority of deterministic and ensemble solutions indicate the
deep trough over the eastern U.S. by next Thursday and Friday, but
there is a high degree of variability in how we "get from point A to
point B". The few upper level shortwaves that will be ejecting east
along the Gulf Coast region in the subtropical jet stream should be
deamplifying as they approach the Atlantic, which does not inspire a
lot of confidence in any significant frontal passages or rainfall.
Additionally, these shortwaves will be originating from closed or
cutoff upper level lows over the southern Plains with fairly regular
wave breaking over the CONUS. Timing the ejection of cutoff upper
level lows is very tricky (particularly more than a few days into
the future), and thus it isn't too surprising to see the model
differences that have emerged.

Rising heights and a building upper level ridge are expected along
the Pacific Coast this weekend as an enhanced East Asian Jet extends
past the International Date Line. In conjunction, broad and low
amplitude troughiness is expected to develop downstream over the
central and eastern United States. A surface low associated with the
northern jet stream will track east near the Canadian border,
gradually dragging a cold front southeast across the eastern CONUS.
This front will be slow to approach from the northwest and traverse
the forecast area. PoPs were introduced from west to east on Friday
Night. Models disagree on exact timing from there, but the general
theme is southeast progression of the cold front with high pressure
and a drier air mass building in afterwards early next week. Thus,
PoPs were gradually tapered off from NW to SE late Sunday.

Northerly flow and dry weather were forecast on Monday and Tuesday,
with winds gradually swinging back around to the southeast with
increasing PoPs by Wednesday ahead of the next approaching trough.
We may see another cool down towards the end of the week given model
consistency in developing a deep east coast upper level trough.

.FIRE WEATHER...No changes were made to the inherited Red Flag
Warning distribution or timing. Current grids call for about 5hr
durations of RH below 25% in our SE Alabama zones, and about 6-7hr
durations in our SW Georgia zones. While winds and Dispersions
will be low today, any Florida county that has ERC values over 35
should easily attain red flag criteria. For now, the forecast ERC
is only over 35 in Leon and Wakulla Counties. This is where the
existing RF.W was, so no changes were made. Forecast minimum RH
values are right around 38-40% on Thursday. Dispersions are
forecast to be higher (75-90) east of the Apalachicola River, so
if subsequent forecasts are drier with RH for Thursday it could
warrant a fire weather headline. Moisture will increase after
Thursday.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 54 32 66 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 55 43 65 47 67 / 0 0 10 0 10
Dothan 55 36 63 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 54 31 63 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 53 30 63 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 54 29 67 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 53 40 64 45 65 / 0 0 10 0 10

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM CST this
afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GA...Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 5 PM EST this afternoon for
Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-
Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
Tift-Turner-Worth.

FL...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
evening for Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

GM...None.

Camp/Lamers/Barry

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KTAE 040911
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
411 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2012

Northerly flow and dry weather were forecast on Monday and Tuesday,
with winds gradually swinging back around to the southeast with
increasing PoPs by Wednesday ahead of the next approaching trough.
We may see another cooldown towards the end of the week given model
consistency in developing a deep east coast upper level trough.

.AVIATION (through 06z Thursday)...No major changes were made to the
inherited set of TAFs. Most models do show an increase in mid-upper
level humidity towards the 00-06z Thursday timeframe and CRAS model
simulated cloud cover shows a slight increase from the W/NW this
evening. Therefore, some scattered high clouds were added after 00z.
Other than that, plenty of sunshine is expected with light winds.

.MARINE...Winds and seas will remain very light through today.
Offshore winds will increase slightly tonight in the wake of a
weak cold front. However, winds and seas will remain below
headline criteria. Onshore flow will develop by this weekend with
winds still expected to remain below headline levels.

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM CST this
afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GA...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for Baker-Ben
Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-
Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-
Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-
Turner-Worth.

Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 5 PM EST this afternoon for
Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-
Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
Tift-Turner-Worth.

FL...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
Madison-South Walton-Washington.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
evening for Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

GM...None.
&&

Camp/Lamers

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KTAE 041129 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
630 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2012

Updated most recently for the Aviation Discussion.

Northerly flow and dry weather were forecast on Monday and Tuesday,
with winds gradually swinging back around to the southeast with
increasing PoPs by Wednesday ahead of the next approaching trough.
We may see another cooldown towards the end of the week given model
consistency in developing a deep east coast upper level trough.

.AVIATION (through 12z Thursday)...The 06z set of TAFs still looks
in good shape and only minor tweaks were made to the wind direction.
The previous discussion is as follows: most models do show an
increase in mid-upper level humidity towards the 00-06z Thursday
timeframe and CRAS model simulated cloud cover shows a slight
increase from the W/NW this evening. Therefore, some scattered high
clouds were added after 00z. Other than that, plenty of sunshine is
expected with light winds.

.MARINE...Winds and seas will remain very light through today.
Offshore winds will increase slightly tonight in the wake of a
weak cold front. However, winds and seas will remain below
headline criteria. Onshore flow will develop by this weekend with
winds still expected to remain below headline levels.

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM CST this
afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
evening for Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

GM...None.
&&

Camp/Lamers

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KTAE 040911
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
411 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2012

Northerly flow and dry weather were forecast on Monday and Tuesday,
with winds gradually swinging back around to the southeast with
increasing PoPs by Wednesday ahead of the next approaching trough.
We may see another cooldown towards the end of the week given model
consistency in developing a deep east coast upper level trough.

.MARINE...Winds and seas will remain very light through today.
Offshore winds will increase slightly tonight in the wake of a
weak cold front. However, winds and seas will remain below
headline criteria. Onshore flow will develop by this weekend with
winds still expected to remain below headline levels.

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM CST this
afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
evening for Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

GM...None.
&&

Camp/Lamers

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 182054 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
453 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011

.VERY SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE SHOWING UP ON THE TWIN
CITIES...LACROSSE AND GREEN BAY RADARS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI PRECIP LOOKS TIED TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPARENT
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL WI...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO OHIO ON WEDNESDAY...AND SHIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CRAS MODEL...AN OUTLIER...HAS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY LOW ON WED...BUT MAKES IT INTO A DOUBLE BARREL LOW WITH THE
WESTERN PART MOVING UP THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THU AND THU
NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS COULD POTENTIALLY
REACH WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA AS EARLY AS MID
WED AFTERNOON. WINDS ALONG THE LAKE WILL BE STRONGEST...AND WINDS
WELL INLAND NEAR LONE ROCK WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG...POSSIBLY
NOT EVEN IN THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AREA.

LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND TO THE LAKESHORE
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AS BEST DEPICTED BY THE REGIONAL CANADIAN
MODEL. THESE SHOWERS ARE SUPPORTED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LIFT FROM UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN
KY BORDER.

ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
WI WED AFTERNOON...SO BUMPED UP POPS A BIT.

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

STRENGTH OF WINDS ARE THE KEY IN THIS PERIOD...AND THEN HOW QUICKLY
WINDS DIMINISH AND PRECIPITATION EXITS EAST WITH WEAKENING LOW
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE LOW DEEPEST AND MOST COMPACT AT 06Z THURSDAY...986-987MB
OVER EASTERN INDIANA...THEN BROADENS AS SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES AS STRONG VORT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
JET MAX MOVES UP EASTERN FLANK OF CLOSED LOW...WHICH REACHES THE
EASTERN LAKES BY 00Z FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY 12Z FRIDAY.

SOUTHEAST...TO FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN GETS INTO THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WITH KENOSHA...MILWAUKEE AND SHEBOYGAN BUFKIT PROFILES
SHOWING 45-50KT WINDS WITHIN 1K FT OF SURFACE FROM 21-22Z WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF TO 30-35 KTS AT KMSN AND BLUE
RIVER IN A SHORTER WINDOW FROM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY.

WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND DEEPER MIXING OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
LAKE...HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES LOOK REASONABLE
AND AS SUCH WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SHEBOYGAN TO
KENOSHA COUNTIES...AND FOR WASHINGTON AND WAUKESHA COUNTIES DUE TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF BOTH COUNTIES...FROM 22Z
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL NEED A
WIND ADVISORY...BUT WILL LEAVE FOR THE NEXT SHIFTS TO DECIPHER LATER
GUIDANCE FOR EXACT LOCATION OF ADVISORY VS HIGH WIND WARNING.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FAR EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
STRONGEST LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
PRECIPITATION...WITH LIKELY POPS WEST TO MADISON AND MONROE...
TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN COUNTIES. FORCING SHIFTS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY EVENING...WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY EASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SLACKENING
GRADIENT AS SURFACE LOW CENTER RE-FORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO.
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...PRIME RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD FROST OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
WITH AREAS OF FROST EVEN TOWARD THE WARMER LAKE DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW.

RIDGING BRINGS A QUIET DAY FRIDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING
MID 50S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW
TO MEDIUM.

WEAK WAVES IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY...MAINLY ON THE 00Z ECMWF OVER NRN ILLINOIS.
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AS STRONGER
WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
WELL REFLECTED IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND WILL BE KEPT. A BREAK
MONDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS RETURN TUESDAY WITH BROAD TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE MIDDLE SECTIONS OF THE U.S...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND FORCING FOCUS. WESTERLY FLOW MODERATES TEMPERATURES BACK
TOWARD...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...SEASONAL NORMALS.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF MADISON
AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
SAGS INTO SOUTHWEST WI. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR OVER NORTHERN WI AND
LAKE MICHIGAN IS HOLDING OFF THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE MVFR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER
KENOSHA AND SOUTHWARD. THERE WILL BE A DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN THE
MOIST AND DRY AIR MASSES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT.

THEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL SPREAD
PRECIP AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO NORTHERN IL AND
SOUTHEAST WI OVERNIGHT. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WILL RESULT IN CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR INLAND AND IFR NEAR THE
LAKE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SHRA DEVELOPING IN THE EAST. IN ADDITION
TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING...LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE FROM THE
BACKING WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS
LIKELY UP THE LAKESHORE TO SHEBOYGAN AND NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY WED AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH. MKE/RAC WILL BE
ESPECIALLY AFFECTED BY THESE STRONG WINDS SINCE THEY ARE CLOSEST TO
THE LAKE...AND MWC/UES/ENW WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS.

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING OVER TN AND OH VALLEYS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
OHIO...NORTHWEST INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...RESULTING IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THU MRNG BEFORE LOOSENING.
STEADY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE SURFACE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING FROM WED EVENING THROUGH EARLY THU
MORNING.

LAKE-ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ052-059-060-065-066-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KEKA 071108
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
408 AM PDT WED SEP 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TOMORROW
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NW CALIFORNIA. IT WILL ALSO BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TRINITY COUNTY ON THU. STRONGER
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRI AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE REGION ON SAT.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL MARINE LAYER REMAINS SUPPRESSED UNDER
THIS RIDGE. THE BODEGA BAY PROFILER THIS MORNING IS SHOWING A
MARINE LAYER OF ONLY ABOUT 150 TO 200 METERS DEEP, COMPARED TO
THIS TIME YESTERDAY OF AROUND 300 METERS DEEP. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE MARINE LAYER RIGHT UP TO THE COAST
AGAIN TODAY ALLOWING FOR A GENERALLY CLEAR DAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO FILTER OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FADE TODAY AS
THIS UPPER LOW NEAR 29N131W BEGINS TO SHOW A LOWER LEVEL
REFLECTION. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE TO THE NW AND N
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THIS LOW BEING ABSORBED
INTO A BROADER CIRCULATION AND PULLED TO THE S THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PAC NW AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN, NW CALIFORNIA MAY BE IN FOR A
DECENT OFFSHORE WIND EVENT ON FRI. MODELS HAVE INCREASED THEIR
DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS BY SEVERAL DEGREES OVER
THE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE RUNS. AS A RESULT, CONTINUED THE TREND THE
DAY SHIFT BEGAN IN INCREASING THE HIGHS FOR FRI. THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR FRI MAY EVEN NEED TO BE INCREASED IF THE OFFSHORE FLOW
CAN STICK AROUND A BIT. MODELS DO SHOW THE PATTERN BREAKING DOWN
BY SAT AFTERNOON, WITH AN ONSHORE PUSH COMING BACK. OVERALL,
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT THEY HAVE ALL BEEN SHIFTING TOGETHER OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS, SO AM HESITANT TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON MED TO LONG
RANGE SOLUTIONS. THERE ARE SOME FIRE WEATHER THREATS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK, AND CAN BE READ ABOUT BELOW IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION. BFG

.AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z
ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING KACV AND KCEC. FOG IS LOOKING RATHER
DENSE TONIGHT WITH A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS BUT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE OR MIST. GRADIENTS HAVE BEGUN TO EASE
FROM THE NORTH AND LOOK TO BECOME WEAKLY OFFSHORE HEADING THROUGH
TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES THAN
YESTERDAY NEARING THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR INLAND AREAS. AAD

.MARINE...NOT MUCH GOING ON ACROSS THE WATERS AT THE MOMENT WITH
WEAK GRADIENTS AND LIGHT WINDS WITH A SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL. THIS IS MIXED WITH A 1-2FT LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL IN
AREAS NOT SHELTERED BY CAPE MENDOCINO. LOTS OF CHANGES ARE IN
STORE BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY AS AN INTENSE STORM OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA HAS GENERATED A NW SWELL. THIS WILL BE AROUND 12 SECS IN
PERIOD AND BETWEEN 7-10FT IN MAGNITUDE. FORECAST IS STILL RATHER
CONSERVATIVE UNTIL WE ARE A BIT CLOSER AND CAN BE MORE CONFIDENT
IN THE HIGHER MAGNITUDES DEPICTED IN THE MODELS...WHICH OFTEN END
UP BEING TOO HIGH. GRADIENT WILL THEN INCREASE WITH NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS ON FRIDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW AND POSITION OF THERMAL LOW MAY KEEP WINDS LIGHTER
NEAR THE COAST TO PRECLUDE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WINDS...BUT STILL
A RATHER ROUGH COMBINATION WITH THE NW SWELL. CONDITIONS WILL EASE
UP OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SOUTHERLY SWELL POSSIBLE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HELD OFF ON ISSUING GALE WATCH FOR NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FOR NOW BUT WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS MET THU
NT-SAT AM. AAD

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BEGIN TODAY AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEP SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE
OVERNIGHT CRAS IMAGERY DOES INDICATE SOME CU DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING OVER THE TRINITY HORN, WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS DOWN TO -7C.
THE DAY SHIFT FROM TUE MADE MENTION OF POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING
FOR THU. WHILE MODELS DO HAVE THE CAPE AND NEG LIS FOR THE EASTERN
TERRAIN, THEY ARE ALSO SHOWING DECENT RH VALUES IN THE MID LEVELS
AND PUSHING THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH PWAT. WITH THAT, DO NOT THINK
DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN, BUT HAVE KEPT THE MENTION
IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST THIS MORNING. THE MORE THREATENING
TIME IN THE FORECAST WILL BE FRI AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER LOW SETS
UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PAC NW,
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NORTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONES
CAUSING GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS. FRI WILL ALSO LIKELY BE
ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE YEAR WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.
THIS WILL CAUSE VERY LOW RH ACROSS ALL OF NW CALIFORNIA FOR FRI.
THESE COMBINE WITH THE FUEL BEING OR NEARLY BEING CURED, COULD
RESULT IN A RED FLAG DAY. THIS PATTERN REALLY BEGAN TO SHOW IN THE
12Z RUNS YESTERDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
THE DAY CREW WILL EVALUATE THE NEW 12Z RUNS LATER THIS MORNING,
AND IF DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT, AT LEAST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED. REALLY WENT BACK AND FORTH OVERNIGHT WHETHER OR
NOT TO ISSUE A FWA AND DECIDED NOT TO, BUT WILL HEADLINE IN THE
FWF. CONVECTION DOES CONTINUE TO REMAIN A THREAT FOR SAT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WEAKLY STABLE. DID UP THE
SILENT POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF ALL REMAINS ON TRACK, WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO SLIGHT CHANCE ON TONIGHTS SHIFT. BFG

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KEKA 261106
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
406 AM PDT FRI AUG 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY OR
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE AND TRINITY
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE WEEKEND TO BE HOT AND DRY INLAND.
THE COAST WILL SEE OVERNIGHT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EACH AFTERNOON.

.DISCUSSION...
MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS A BIT SHALLOWER AROUND 1KFT THIS MORNING WITH
LESS FOG AND DRIZZLE THAN LAST NIGHT ALONG WITH A BIT STRONGER
NORTHERLY GRADIENT. THIS IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS NW CA FOR FRIDAY AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES. NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE WV IMAGERY
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHWEST. DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ATTM...BUT
NEITHER DID THE WAVE PASSING ACROSS OREGON EARLY THIS AM WHICH
GENERATED CONVECTION WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH IT AND INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. LEFT
IN POPS OVER INTERIOR TRINITY AND DEL NORTE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. JUST FROM A PLACEMENT AND TIMING STANDPOINT OF
THIS WAVE...THINK THE BEST CHC MAY BE ACROSS DEL NORTE TONIGHT.
EITHER WAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH. 4KM CRAS IR HINTED AT CONVECTION
ACROSS NWRN OREGON LAST NIGHT BUT SHOWS NOTHING ACROSS NRN CA
TONIGHT...FWIW. MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
WEAK RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO EXTEND ACROSS CA FROM THE UPPER HIGH
OVER THE DESERT SW FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE A BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN OCCURS...OR PERHAPS JUST A RETURN TO THE ONE WE SAW IN THE
SPRING/EARLY SUMMER. DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SETTLE IN
ACROSS THE PAC NW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NW CA AROUND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
INTERIOR FOR SURE...AS THERMAL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN. OTHER IMPACT WILL BE TO MARINE LAYER...WHICH
WILL LIKELY DEEPEN BUT WILL ALSO HAVE THE TENDENCY TO MIX AND ERODE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LONGER RANGE HINTS TOWARD A
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW POTENTIALLY SETTING UP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK CLAIMING RIGHTS TO THE ENTIRE
WEST COAST THIS MORNING. ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST VSBY HAVE REMAINED
IN THE MVFR RANGE WHILE CIGS HAVE HOVERED AROUND 2-300 FT. FORESEE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 6 HOURS BEFORE SUBTLE IMPROVEMENT
IS SEEN BY LATE MORNING. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH SOME CU BUILDUPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AN ISOLD TSTM
POSSIBLE AROUND THE SISKIYOU AND TRINITY ALPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HORUS AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN MDT WINDS AND STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ENP FCST CONTINUES TO SHOW A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL 3
FT AT 20 SEC BUILDING INTO THE WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT TUESDAY PZZ470-475.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KEKA 181116
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
416 AM PDT THU AUG 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR INTERIOR NW CALIFORNIA.
WHILE ALONG THE COAST...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE
MORNING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING.

.DISCUSSION...MORNING IR SAT FOG CHANNEL SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST WITH LIMITED INLAND PENETRATION. THESE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE TRYING TO PUSH UP INTO THE LARGER RIVER VALLEYS
OF HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COASTS, BUT ARE BEING LIMITED BY A WEAK
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE, THE FOG SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
COAST AND WILL LIKELY BE A REPEAT OF WED. FOG IS ALSO SHOWING UP
IN SAT IMAGERY ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST WITH LIMITED INLAND
INTRUSION. THIS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY TODAY AS IT IS NOT APPEARING
VERY THICK. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF MORNINGS ALONG THE COAST, WITH POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AROUND
HUMBOLDT BAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS REMAINS ABUNDANT. THE CAVEAT TO
THIS WOULD BE OFFSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL NEED TO BE ASSESSED EACH
MODEL RUN. AT THIS POINT, DO NOT THINK ANY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX TO THE SFC AT THE COAST AND SCOUR OUT THE FOG
OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS.

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS SHOWING UP WELL IN THE WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING AND IS CAUSING THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SFC TO REMAIN IN
PLACE. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF WARM INLAND TEMPS. WV SAT IS
ALSO SHOWING A NICE STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COMING FROM
AROUND 25N130W, AND BEING ADVECTED OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
ALONG THE ERN FLANK OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO NRN CALIFORNIA.
THIS IS BRINGING A RISE IN HUMIDITY ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA, WHICH
WILL LIKELY CAUSE CU BUILD UP OVER THE MTNS TODAY. THE NAM IS
SHOWING SOME CAPE AND NEG LI'S FOR TODAY AND FRI, BUT THE GFS IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED ON THIS. POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS OVER THE INTERIOR
MTNS IS LOW TODAY, BUT MAY NEED TO BE REASSESSED FOR FRI DUE TO
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AND PROVIDING THE LIFT.
THE CLIMAX OF THIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA. BY THAT POINT HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE MAY NOT
BE PRESENT. AS SUCH, HAVE OPTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE ONGOING
FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS. THE
MORNING CRAS IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COOL CLOUD
TOPS FOR FRI OR SAT EITHER. WITH TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE E PAC
THOUGH, WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THEIR UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BECOMES ENTRAINED AND ADVECTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TROUGH OFF
THE W COAST. ALL THAT TO SAY, CONFDC IS MODERATE AT BEST FOR THE
WEEKEND FORECAST, AND DETERIORATES QUICKLY BEYOND THAT. BFG

.AVIATION...IR CHANNEL SHOWED PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH COAST
AND OVER THE EEL DELTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIN LAYER OF STRATUS
WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING LATER MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.

.MARINE...HI PRES BUILDING TOWARD THE PAC NW COUPLED WITH
DEVELOPING THERMAL LOW PRES OVER THE CA INTERIOR WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH FRI.

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY PZZ450-455.

GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT PZZ470.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY PZZ470.

HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
SATURDAY PZZ470.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY PZZ475.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KEKA 112245
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
345 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AGAIN
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY PATCHY DRIZZLE. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NW CALIFORNIA. FRI
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH CLEAR SKIES INLAND AND PERSISTENT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST.

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE COASTAL
AREAS TONIGHT. THE BUFKIT NAM RH TIME SERIES SHOWS HIGH VALUES OF
RH ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST TONIGHT INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS OF
FRI AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. AS SUCH, DRIZZLE HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE
DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE FOR FRI
OVER THU, MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT TO BURN OFF. SUN AND MON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE SHALLOW, ALLOWING FOR BETTER AFTERNOON
BURN OFF.

MODELS ARE INDICATING A TOUCH OF RIDGING ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA FOR
FRI, WHICH WILL ADD A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO THE HIGH TEMPS OVER
THU. THIS WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED AS AN UPPER TROUGH ROLLS INTO
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN BY ALMOST 10
DEGREES BY TUE. SO LOOK FOR TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND INTO THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S BY TUE.
MODELS ARE TRENDING SIMILAR, BUT THE TIMING OF THE FIRST TROUGH
PUSHING THROUGH IS STILL OFF A BIT. BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER
RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE W COAST ALLOWING FOR REBOUNDING
TEMPS.

CONVECTION POTENTIAL...THE THU CRAS IR IMAGERY SHOWED COLD CLOUD
TOPS NO LONGER IN OUR CWA, BUT MORE INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS, HAVE
DECIDED TO PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS FROM THE FORECAST. THAT
SAID, DID LEAVE SOME SILENT POPS IN THE FORECAST GIRDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF TRINITY AND INTERIOR MENDOCINO COUNTIES.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE FAIR AND THE WV IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SW
AND S, 32N389W AND 28N125W RESPECTIVELY. THIS MOISTURE COULD
BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF SOME SHORT WAVES AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH, SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CAREFULLY TO
BE SURE NO TSTMS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA OF MOISTURE. BFG

.AVIATION...NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO MOST AREAS HAVE REMAINED
CLOUDY...HOWEVER THE HUMBOLDT AND ARCATA BAY AREA HAS BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY. STILL LOOKING FOR KCEC CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. CIGS WILL BE IN
AND OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. TONIGHT
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FILL IN AROUND SUNSET. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION IS THE AREA SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WITH MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS SOME DOWNSLOPING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THIS AREA
CLEAR. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME DRIZZLE AS A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE AREA SO EXPECT CIGS AND VSBY'S WILL BE LIFR NORTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. TOMORROW MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. INLAND
AREAS WILL REMAIN CLEAR. MKK

.MARINE...PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MDT TO FRESH N
WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ALONG WITH SHORT PERIOD...WIND DRIVEN
SEAS. HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN TO CONTINUE WEAKEN TONIGHT
ALLOWING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS TO RELAX. ASCAT WINDS SHOW
15 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KT
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO LINGER S OF THE CAPE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
THERE IS GENERALLY AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT A TROUGH WILL
RETURN TO THE WEST COAST...HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS. MAINLY WENT WITH THE DGEX AS IT
WAS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS. MKK

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY PZZ475.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KEKA 011030
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
330 AM PDT MON AUG 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY NEAR
THE COAST...BUT NEVER FULLY DISSIPATE TODAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FURTHER INLAND AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DISCUSSION...
CONCERNING CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS TRINITY
COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING.
THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AND
SUNDAY WAS A LITTLE BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES OVER
7.5 C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKING AT THE VARIABLES AGAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...MANY LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NEGATIVE LI
VALUES...MARGINAL CAPE...SIMILAR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND A
SHORTWAVE TRIGGER WILL ALL BE IN PLACE FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
EACH OF THESE VARIABLES WILL BE SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT NORTH OF TRINITY COUNTY AS PER
THE GFS AND NAM MODELS. OTHER MODEL DATA IS SPLIT ON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE CRAS INFRARED 4KM FORECAST MODEL INDICATES NO
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE 4KM SPC WRF DEVELOPS
STORMS BOTH OVER THE TRINITY ALPS AND YOLLA BOLLYS. CONSIDERING ALL
OF THIS...HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
TRINITY ALPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
YOLLA BOLLYS. AS ALREADY STATED...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF
THE AREA.

BY TUESDAY THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHED WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AND INSTABILITY NOT AS IMPRESSIVE.
THUS HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE OVER THE CWA LEADING TO INCREASING
LIFT. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LACKING ABOVE THE SURFACE...BUT WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TRIGGER A SLIGHT RISK OF A STORM OVER THE TRINITY ALPS
SEEMS REASONABLE. BY THURSDAY THE RISK DECREASES ONCE AGAIN AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES/VORTICITY WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND THUNDER MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.
HOWEVER CONSIDERING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR THE MARINE LAYER...THE STRATUS HAS DIFFICULTY COMPLETELY
DISSIPATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURGE STILL HOLDING ACROSS
COASTAL MENDOCINO AND NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO HOLD MOISTURE
ALONG THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTY COASTS. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH SREF
GUIDANCE HOLDING THE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE
OPTED TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE...WITH THE STRATUS LIKELY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY BUT RESURGING BACK INLAND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SIMILAR ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INLAND
INTRUSION OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY INCREASE. HAVE EXPANDED
THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS TO INCLUDE MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN HUMBOLDT...DEL NORTE...AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES STARTING WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THE STRATUS MAY
SPREAD EVEN FURTHER INLAND. CHANCES OF STRATUS FAR INLAND DECREASE
BY THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK WITH A
TROUGH PRIMARILY SET OVER THE WEST COAST. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE
HIGHS NEAR 60 DEGREES WITH INLAND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S.

.AVIATION...
11-3.9 IMAGERY SHOWING A THIN RIBBON OF STRATUS ALONG
THE NORTH COAST THIS MORNING BUT MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AREA SOUTH
ALONG THE MENDO COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL WEAK TROUGH IS SITTING JUST
OFF THE COAST TODAY BUT MAY HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO ENHANCE THE
STRATUS AND BRING IT IN TO THE COAST TOMORROW. HIGH RES MODELS DO
SHOW AN INCREASE IN MARINE LAYER DEPTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW BUT FEEL KCEC AND KACV SHOULD AT LEAST REACH VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MORE PRONOUNCED MARINE PUSH LOOKS TO OCCUR
WED. OTHER THAN ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR ACROSS THE UKIAH
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. TONKIN

.FIRE WEATHER...
APPROX 50 C2G STRIKES OCCURRED YESTERDAY IN OR NEAR TRINITY
COUNTY WITH THE BULK OVER THE ALPS...AND ABOUT 10 OF THOSE OVER AN
AREA BETWEEN WEAVERVILLE AND TRINITY CENTER. YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WAS THE MOST WE'VE SEEN ACROSS THE FIRE DISTRICTS IN SOME
TIME AND AT THIS TIME ONLY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN MOISTURE AND
STABILITY LEAD TO THIS OCCURRENCE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS. HAVE TO HAND IT TO OUR FRIENDS IN WISCONSIN AS THE CRAS
SIMULATED IR IMAGERY DEPICTED THE ENHANCED CU DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY PERFECTLY...ALONG THE YOLLA BOLLY SPINE AND NORTHWARD TO
THE TRINITY ALPS 24 HOURS PREVIOUS. CRAS ALSO VERIFIED WELL BACK
ON FRI AND SAT WHEN IT SHOWED NO CLOUD ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE
CWA...AND DURING THAT PERIOD SLIGHT CHANCE TSTORMS WERE
FORECAST...YET BARELY ANY CU WAS OBSERVED.

FOR TODAY...MEDFORD WFO HAS A RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY LIGHTNING IN
EFFECT FOR THEIR SISKIYOU COUNTY ZONES BORDERING TRINITY COUNTY TO
THE NORTH. WE WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
THE ALPS AND YOLLA BOLLY SPINE TODAY BUT DUE TO TRINITY COUNTY FUELS
BEING BELOW NORMAL IN TERMS OF BURNING POTENTIAL (ERC'S BELOW
AVERAGE STILL) AND EXPECTED LIGHTNING COVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN AREAS
TO THE NORTH...FEEL A WARNING OR HEADLINE IS NOT WARRANTED.

MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS GETS SHUNTED
OFF. HOWEVER MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ALOFT RIDE ACROSS THE REGION...
THUS CANNOT DISCOUNT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS ACROSS EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT EVENTS
EXPECTED. TONKIN

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KEKA 311541 AAA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA...UPDATE
840 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
TODAY. ELSEWHERE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.MORNING UPDATE...AN UPDATE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING TO INCLUDE TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TRINITY COUNTY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD CAPE, -LI'S, AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, WHICH CAN
ALL LEAD TO POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE 12Z NAM IS SHOWING INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL, AND THE CRAS INFRARED FORECAST PRODUCT IS
INDICATING GREAT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS.
NOTHING MAJOR WAS ADDED, SIMPLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE
YOLLA BOLLAS AND TRINITY ALPS. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FORK MTN. ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS GOING WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD A HAIR, MAY BE INCLUDING TSTMS FOR MON
AFTERNOON AS WELL. BFG

.DISCUSSION...THE STRATUS PUSHED NORTH LAST NIGHT AND IS NOW UP
TO THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER AS OF 4 AM. ADDITIONALLY LOW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH HAVE COMBINED WITH
THE STRATUS NEAR THE COAST TO RESULT IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR ALL
OF THE COASTAL WATERS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL
CURRENTLY WITH BUOY 27 SHOWING WEAK SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BROOKINGS
OREGON AND CRESCENT CITY CALM. ADDITIONALLY A RIDGE ALOFT IS
BUILDING OVER THE AREA AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALL OF THESE
COMBINE TO SUGGEST IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE STRATUS TO
COMPLETELY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTATIONS
OF CONDITIONS BEING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE MOVES
EAST AND THE STRATUS SURGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN FOR MONDAY.

OTHERWISE CONVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION INLAND LOOKS LESS
LIKELY TODAY AS WEAK RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE CWA. CONSIDERING
THERE WERE NO SHOWERS SATURDAY...A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED.
PROBABILITIES INCREASE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE AREA...BUT NOTHING STANDS OUT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ANY GREATER THEN WHAT HAS BEEN INDICATED THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THUS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH POPS LESS THAN
15 PERCENT.

MED TO LONG RANGE...THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA WILL SLOW
TO A NEAR STALL OVER THE W COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK, THEN LIMP ACROSS
THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK. THE COASTAL MARINE LAYER WILL THUS SLOWLY
DEEPEN THROUGH TROUGH PASSAGE, BRINGING MORE INLAND INTRUSION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. FOR THE INLAND REGIONS OF NW CALIFORNIA, TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS ACROSS THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES ALONG
WITH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL BRING SOME MORE CU BUILDING ON
TUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOONS, BUT NO TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AS SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT IN THE MODELS. IF MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHOW
IN THE MODELS, THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

.AVIATION...NAM12 CROSS SECTION SHOWS COASTAL MARINE LAYER AT ABOUT
1500 FT DEPTH THIS MORNING WITH FOG AND STRATUS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
ALONG THE ENTIRE MENDO AND REDWOOD COASTS..HOWEVER BOTH WRF AND
NAM12 SHOW KACV AND KCEC BREAKING OUT BY 18Z TODAY. MONDAY MAY SEE
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. STRATUS ALSO MAKING
ITS WAY UP THE RUSSIAN RIVER DRAINAGE AND MAY SEEP INTO THE UKIAH
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE.

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY PZZ470-475.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KEKA 141022 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
323 AM PDT THU JUL 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHILE A THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
TRINITY COUNTY. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE COAST.

.DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING
BELOW NORMAL INLAND TEMPERATURES AND ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE THE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH WEEKEND ONLY SUBTLE
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. BOUTS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY. UPPED THE POPS AND TSTORM COVERAGE FOR FRIDAY
AND FRI NIGHT BASED ON A MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE AND
STRONGER UPPER DIVERGENCE AS NOTED BY THE GFS. ALTHOUGH THE STANDARD
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OR MOISTURE DO NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE OR
EVEN MUCH DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WE'VE SEEN LATELY IF MODELS ARE
CORRECT IN ADJUSTING THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TSTORMS COULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS BELIEVE NIGHTTIME TSTORM ACTIVITY AND
COVERAGE MAY BE SUSTAINED LATE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST CRAS IR
IMAGERY WITH CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT MORNING.
THERE IS SLIM CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WELL...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT DIDNT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH OF A
CHANCE TO ADD TO THE FORECAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. ALONG THE COAST LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
EXPECTED EACH NIGHT AND MORNING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE
AFTERNOON. EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT HEIGHTS
WILL BE RISING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL ARE NOT
IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. THE GFS RETROGRADES THE RIDGE OVER
THE MIDWEST SLIGHTLY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH OVER US...BUT
PUSHES IT NORTH RAISING THE HEIGHTS OVER US. EITHER WAY WARMER
INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND CONVECTION IS NOT LIKELY. ALONG
THE COAST LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT AND MORNING
WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO THE COAST. JT/MKK

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS
SLOWLY FILLING IN OVER HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
A PATCHES OVER MENDOCINO COUNTY. DECKS WERE NEAR 2500 FT AT KCEC AND
KACV BUT LOWER CLOUD LAYERS SHOULD FORM BY DAYBREAK WITH PERHAPS A
FEW PATCHES OF 1SM IN MISTY FOG. THE BULK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT
WITH HEATING AND MIXING BY LATE MORNING...BUT A FEW AREAS OF IFR
CIGS MAY LINGER NEARBY THE COASTAL HILLS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TIMING AND EXTENT OF STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS MOST UNCERTAIN
AS THE FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE AND THE MARINE LAYER MODERATELY DEEP
WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS IN THE STACK.

.MARINE...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE SEA STATE WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL MIXING WITH A NORTHWESTERLY
SHORT PERIOD FRESH SWELL. NORTH WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP SLIGHTLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS AND STRONGER GRADIENTS DEVELOP.

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 052011
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
311 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND CENTRAL WI AND NORTHEAST IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. A 500MB TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SOUTHERN WI.

AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WI LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A REGION OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET GOING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THIS
AREA SHOULD STAY FOCUSED TO THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION SEEPING INTO FAR NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA /CWA/ LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN IS ONGOING FROM
LAST NIGHT...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH WEAK SFC-925MB CONVERGENCE WITH A TROUGH/FRONT.
STORMS WEAKENED DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CONVERGENCE
AREA MOVES INTO EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WI AND ENCOUNTERS A LESS
STABLE AIRMASS. LINE OF CU DEVELOPED AROUND 17Z ALONG THE SFC
CONVERGENCE AREA AND IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI.

CIRRUS ERODING AS IT FLOWS INTO SOUTHEAST WI TODAY...SO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO WARM THE AIR AND DESTABILIZE. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN NOW AND
06Z AT MSN ACCORDING TO THE RUC...GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG 21Z TO 02Z.
VERY LITTLE SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...WITH ABOUT 20 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK
SHEAR.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOMEWHAT
DISCRETELY...THEN CLUSTERING ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY AS IT CROSSES
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING THE PRECIP SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 3 HOURS EARLIER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE
CRAS AND CANADIAN ARE SLOWEST AND DRIEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
GFS...MODELS WEAKEN PRECIP AS IT GETS INTO SOUTHEAST WI LATE THIS
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...TAPERING CHANCE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SEVERE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL HAIL OR SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE EARLIER STORMS THIS EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SHOULD SINK SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER BY 12Z...BUT KEPT SCHC
LINGERING TSTORMS IN FAR SOUTHEAST FOR MORNING HOURS. SOME MODELS
HANG THE FRONT CLOSER TO OUR BORDER THAN OTHERS.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

12Z GFS/NAM AND 00Z ECMWF STILL SIMILAR WITH A EASTERN
CANADA/NORTHEAST U.S. MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH WEAK WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY...WEAKENING FRIDAY AS RIDGING
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AND IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY. 12Z NAM HAS WEAK MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500 TO 800 J/KG OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING
THE AFTERNOONS. NO CAPE IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH MORE STABLE AND DRY
AIR OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. LITTLE IN WAY OF A CAP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.. SUBTLE WEAK TROF AXIS IN MID LEVELS WITH SOME POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION. NAM AND GFS POPS ARE AROUND 10 PCT...SO WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM...

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE EXITS SOUTHWEST
CANADA INTO MANITOBA SATURDAY. GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH
THE ECMWF TOWARDS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD JAMES BAY/WESTERN HUDSON BAY SUNDAY
NIGHT.HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. RESULT
IS BOTH MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE
PLAINS WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. SOUTH FLOW
INCREASES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE LATER
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH/TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SUNDAY MONDAY. MODERATE QPF VALUES
ON THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF NEAR THE FRONT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
BRINGING IN MORE QPF SUNDAY WITH A TIGHTER THICKNESS GRADIENT WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

500 MB PATTERN IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON HOW IT
HANDLES THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA WITH THE GFS A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A SECOND SHORTWAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

OVER THE FORECAST AREA FLOW IS ZONAL...BUT A BIT FASTER ON THE
ECMWF AND A BIT MORE WEST NORTHWEST.

BUT BOTH BUILD A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY...AND ACROSS WISCONSIN/LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.

MAIN DIFFERENCE IS 00Z ECMWF PUSHES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...WHILE 12Z GFS HAS IT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON MONDAY.
AT THIS TIME WILL TAKE A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

.AVIATION...SCT CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF WEAK SFC FRONT MAY AFFECT
TAF SITES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN
BRIEFLY LWR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...06
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...13

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KEKA 042141
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
230 PM PDT MON JUL 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS FINALLY GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES THAT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. INTERIOR AREAS WILL REMAIN WARM AND
DRY WITH A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN ON WED AND
THU.

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION UNDER WEAK TO
MODERATE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL REMAIN
CLEAR AND WARM OVER THE CWA AS COASTAL LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT RETURN UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT PROMOTING GOOD FIREWORKS VIEWING. NEXT WEATHER CHALLENGE
IS FOCUSED ON THE MID WEEK PERIOD WHERE AN INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH. AS OUTLINED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION A
COUPLE OF KEY INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR (AT A MINIMUM) ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST MODELS BRING SOME
MOISTURE NORTHWARD UP THE VALLEY AND INTO THE CWA BEGINNING TUE BUT THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE FROM THE WEST IS TIMED WELL WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
ON WED. WITH SURFACE TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO
TERRAIN INDUCED CUMULUS. STANDARD CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK
FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITY IN THE
FORECAST. DID HOWEVER REDUCE COVERAGE BACK TO MAINLY THE EASTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE VERY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW. TO
SEE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME...WOULD LIKE TO
SEE THE MOISTURE SOURCE FROM THE PACIFIC WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY
OVER THE EPAC BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE THIS TIME. BELIEVE MOST
FAVORABLE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN EAST (SIERRA...WARNERS). AT THIS
TIME CRAS IR CONFIRMS THIS WITH MOST OF ITS COLDER CONVECTIVE IR
PIXELS OVER THE CENTRAL NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SIERRA. ALSO, AS IS
ALWAYS THE CASE FOR THIS AREA...THE STUBBORN MID LEVEL CAP. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH MORE STABILITY WESTWARD...AND THIS STILL MAY
BE UNDERDONE. NONETHELESS FEEL 10-15% CHANCE LEADING TO ISOLATED
TSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN SEEMS APPROPRIATE FOR WED AND
PERHAPS THU. GIVEN ISOLATED COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING LARGE FIRE GROWTH
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS FUELS ARE LIKELY STILL FEELING THE EFFECTS
OF LAST WEEKS ABUNDANT RAINFALL. THE LATEST ERC AND LIVE FUEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL ABOVE AVERAGE AND THAT WAS BEFORE THE
RAINFALL..THUS...STILL A FEW WEEKS AWAY FROM ANY WATCHES OR RED FLAG
WARNINGS DUE TO LIGHTING OR WIND/RH. SEASONAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUBTLE FLUCTUATIONS IN
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS
OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION. ALONG THE COAST LIGHT ONSHORE WIND DURING
THE DAY ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT AND GRADUALLY DEEPENING MARINE LAYER
SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WITH SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING. TONKIN

.AVIATION...STRATUS CLOUD DECK REFORMED OVERNIGHT ALONG MOST OF THE
REDWOOD COAST AND ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST SOUTH OF WESTPORT...WITH
CIGS FALLING TO 200-300 FEET AND VSBY DOWN TO 1 1/2 SM. AS OF 1900
UTC THE LAYER IS RECEDING TOWARD THE COAST AND EXPECT AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE BEACHES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
INCREASING N WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WHILE THE MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY REFORM AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS EXTENSIVE
WITH CIGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR/SOUTH OF ACV TO THE NORTH
AND SOUTH OF FORT BRAGG. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN CLEAR. SMITH

.MARINE...CONTINUED ONGOING FORECAST FOR GALES OVER THE OUTER WATERS
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 KT BY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GUSTS TO 35 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING FRIDAY. THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS WITHIN 3-5 NM OFF THE
BEACHES IN THE MORNING HOURS...INCREASING TO SCA IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING. STRONGER WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEAR CAPE
MENDOCINO. THE SEA STATE WILL BE DOMINATED BY SHORT PERIOD COMBINED
SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 10 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND UP TO
15 FEET OFFSHORE AT AROUND 8 TO 9 SECONDS. MODELS INDICATE WINDS
DECREASING LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SMITH

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY PZZ450-455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY PZZ470-475.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KEKA 262159
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
300 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NW
CALIFORNIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR.

.DISCUSSION...FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER LOW
POISED TO REACH THE COAST ON TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES 130W
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND A FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
WILL CROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT STREAM OF
NEAR 1INCH PWAT INTO THE CWA. THE LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST CA THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL SIERRA BY
WED. KEPT SHOWERS AND TSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE TUE BUT FEEL BEST
CHANCE FOR NW CA WILL BE MON AFT THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY CRAS SIMULATED IR
WHICH DEPICTS SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AND SPC'S PERFECT PROG GUIDANCE FOCUSED OVER THE YOLLA
BOLLYS LATE MON. BUFKIT...ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...DOES SHOW
SOME BRIEF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LASTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS
TRINITY COUNTY BUT EVEN IF STORMS FORM MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW
APPEARS TO REMAIN STRONG (25-35 KT) AND WILL PUSH ANY CELLS RAPIDLY
EASTWARD. THE MID TO UPPER WINDS MAY BE EVEN TO STRONG...PERHAPS
SHEARING ANY VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH INITIAL LIGHTING MAY BE
DRY STORMS WILL BECOME WET THROUGH TUESDAY AND GIVEN CURRENT FUEL
CONDITIONS WHICH ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL IN TERMS OF ERC VALUES AND ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LIVE FUEL MOISTURE...LARGE AND RAPID FIRE GROWTH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...DESPITE NEARING JULY. TUESDAY THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
COAST. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF...HOWEVER KEPT POPS ON THE
HIGH END BUT TRIMMED QPF DOWN A BIT. STORMS TOTALS STILL AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS WITH UP TO A HALF IN POSSIBLE IN
FAVORED AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...DIMINISHING CHANCES INTO WED.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIODS WITH TUESDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TONKIN

.AVIATION...VFR DOMINATES THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NW CALIFORNIA
TODAY. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS CEC WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
MUCH OF THE DAY. IT HAS ONLY BEEN IN THE AFTERNOON THAT CEC HAS MADE
IT INTO VFR. VFR WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT, AS CEILINGS WILL BE FALLING INTO IFR BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MODELS DO INDICATE VSBY FALLING DEEP INTO IFR AS
WELL, WHICH SHOULD NOT BE A STRETCH. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR CEC AND
ACV WILL BE IF THEY END UP IN LIFR. AT THIS POINT, DO NOT THINK THAT
WILL HAPPEN AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER.
OVERNIGHT, THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN IF THE OBS
BEGIN TO TREND THAT WAY. UKI AND OTHER INLAND LOCATION WILL REMAIN
VFR AND ONLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A VERY HIGH SCT DECK WITH THE UPPER
LOW MOVING IN. BFG

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS,
DROPPING BY ABOUT 50 PERCENT. YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SEAS WERE IN THE 6
FT RANGE AND THIS AFTERNOON THEY ARE IN THE 3 FT RANGE. BUOYS N OF
THE CAPE ARE RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS AT THE
CAPE MENDOCINO WAVE RIDER BUOY. WINDS ARE GUSTY AROUND THE CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL
CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER SHORT PERIOD SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE MENDOCINO.
WITH A LACK OF OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WATERS S OF CAPE MENDOCINO, CAN
REALLY ONLY GO OFF OF MODEL DATA. WINDS AT POINT ARENA LIGHTHOUSE
HAVE BEEN RUNNING IN THE MID TEENS. THIS IS UP AT ELEVATIONS THOUGH.
WINDS AT THE POINT ARENA DOCK ON THE OTHER HAND, HAVE BEEN IN THE
SUB 10 KT REALM. SHELTER COVE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN MUCH
THE SAME AS THE THOSE OF THE POINT ARENA DOCK. BUOY 46014 NNW OF
POINT ARENA SHOULD BE BACK IN SERVICE SOMETIME IN JULY. IN THE
MEANTIME, MODELS AND ASCAT IT IS. THE 19Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD
AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IN THE SRN OUTER WATERS. SO MODELS LOOK TO BE
PRETTY GOOD AT THIS POINT. S SWELL WILL BE OF NOTE IN THE OUTER
WATERS AND S OF THE CAPE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RUN IN THE 3 FT RANGE
WITH PERIODS SHOWING AROUND 14 TO 16 SECONDS. BEWARE OF POTENTIAL
SHOALING HAZARDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA
SHIFTING TO THE E AND AN UPPER LOW MOVING S FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING A FRONT INTO THE AREA, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT
TO THE S AND SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MON. THIS WILL NOT BE A POTENT
FRONT IN TERMS OF WINDS AND SEAS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS TOO. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND THEN TO
THE N AND INCREASE BY WEEKS END. AT THAT POINT WE WILL BE LOOK AT
ANOTHER BOUT OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. BFG

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KOHX 190151 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
851 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.UPDATE...
00Z SUN KOHX SOUNDING PROFILE CONTINUING TO SHOW OVERALL GOOD PRECIP
WATER CONTENT AT 1.59 INCHES...ALONG WITH A VARIETY OF GOOD INSTABILITY
INDICES'S INDICATORS....BUT GENERALLY DRY BELOW 600 MB. LOOKING AT CURRENT
SATELLITE/SFC OBS...CLEARING SKIES W TO E ACROSS THE MID STATE...WITH
SOME WEAK CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO ERN AR
AND SRN MO. NWLY FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID
STATE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT TIME HRS ALSO...WITH BEST POSSIBLE
STORM TRACK POTENTIAL ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE. HIGH RESOLUTION
RAPID REFRESH MODEL BRINGING CURRENT ERN KS/WRN-CNTRL MO CONVECTION TO
NEAR NW PORTIONS OF THE MID STAT BY 09Z...THEN MOVING CONVECTION EWD AND
THEN SWD INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION BY 12Z. CRAS FORECASTED SAT
IMAGERY ALSO BRINGING INTO W PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUN AT LEAST A
PLUME OF MOISTURE WHICH IS PRESENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH E TX/SE OK/W AR
CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH NO CONVECTION PRESENTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE...
DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK POINTS TO THE FACT THAT A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET THAT PERSISTENCE OF SEVERAL QUASI-LINEAR CLUSTERS IS POSSIBLE
THAT MIGHT MOVE INTO THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING HRS...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOCLDY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS UPDATE WORDING OF ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS
EARLY...BECOMING LIKELY LATE. WILL ALSO ADDRESS WORDING FOR SUN TO
REFLECT POSSIBLE MCS IMPACTS ACROSS THE MID STATE BY RAISING POPS
AND ADDRESSING MOCLDY SKIES THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 632 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SSW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z. ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER AR/MO THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE/SPREAD INTO PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BEST GUESS FOR TSRA IS FROM 09Z-
15Z AT BNA/CSV. AFTER THE MORNING STORMS MOVE AWAY...LOOK FOR
SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH GUSTY SW WINDS TO 25KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 534 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011/

UPDATE...
WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST WITHIN THE SUITE OF
FORECAST PRODUCTS. SHORT RANGE MODELS...HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID
REFRESH MODELS...SATELLITE/SFC OBS...ALL SUPPORTING A SCENARIO
SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER MCS
DEVELOPING TO OUR NW AND MOVING INTO THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE 20 PERCENT
RANGE THRU THE EARLY MORNING HRS...WITH SHWRS/TSTMS BECOMING
LIKELY LATE. HAVE ALSO MADE A MINOR TWEAK IN SKY CONDITIONS TO
SUPPORT A GENERALLY MOCLDY SKY TREND. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS
BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS BREAKS IN CLOUDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS AROUND 70...MID 60S PLATEAU. WITH SLY/SWLY
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU
THE NIGHTTIME HRS ALSO...INCREASED WINDS SPEEDS INTO THE 5 TO
15 MPH RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 239 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011/

DISCUSSION...SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A MESOSCALE SYSTEM HAS WORKED ITS
WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE MAP AT 19Z SHOWS A MESO-HIGH OVER
THE MID STATE OWING TO WIDESPREAD OUTFLOW, WITH THE UPPER FLOW
LARGELY ZONAL. SPC HAS MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT, AND MAY ONCE AGAIN
HAVE TO DEAL WITH A MESOSCALE COMPLEX TOMORROW MORNING AS MODELS
BRING A MOISTURE BULLS-EYE THROUGH THE MID STATE AROUND 12Z. GFS
MODEL SOUNDING FOR BNA FOR 12Z SUNDAY LOOKS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO
THIS MORNING'S OBSERVED SOUNDING, WITH A NEAR-SURFACE STABLE
LAYER, DEEP MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY, AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
INTRUSION. AFTERWARDS, LOOK FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS THE ATMOSPHERE FINALLY DRIES OUT AND HOT
WEATHER RETURNS. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT AROUND MID WEEK THAT
WILL BRING A PROLONGED CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER LASTING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ROSE

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KDLH 110805
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
305 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS WAS CROSSING
FROM C MN INTO N WI AROUND 0730Z. QG FORCING ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
BROAD AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE CWA IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. THIS WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO CLEAR THE AREA FROM NW TO SE AND FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END. IN GENERAL...11.00Z UW-CRAS MODEL
SIMULATED CLOUD COVER AND IR SATELLITE PRODUCTS SEEMED TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRENDS...SO THAT WAS FOLLOWED.

DESPITE SUBSIDENCE REGIME...SOME MODELS HAVE SOME SPOTTY QPF ON
THE ORDER OF 0.01-0.03 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR
MN ZONES NORTH OF HWY 2. THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SUBTLE SFC PRESSURE TROUGH. LOCAL
DLH-WRF DEVELOPS SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER AND
THEN SPREADS THEM INTO NRN MN AFTER 18Z. WE FELT THIS WAS WORTH
15-20 PCT POP. SMALL POSITIVE BUOYANCY REGION ON FCST SOUNDINGS
DOES NOT EXTEND ABOVE -15C...SO PROSPECTS OF THUNDER SEEM LOW.

THERE WILL BE A FEW POSSIBLE ISSUES TO DEAL WITH TONIGHT. THE
FIRST IS LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY
FROST. THE CLEARING SKIES AND SFC ANTICYCLONE CERTAINLY ARGUE FOR
QUICKLY PLUMMETING TEMPS IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO
SHOW THAT THE 925-850MB LAYER LOCKED IN A WEAK WAA PATTERN ALL
NIGHT. GIVEN THE OPPOSING IDEAS...FOLLOWED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
CLOSELY WITH A FEW COOLER TWEAKS IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS LAMP MOS PUTS HYR AND IWD IN THE
36-38F RANGE BY 08Z. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT EVALUATE THE TRENDS IN
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE AND CLOUD DISTRIBUTION TO MAKE THE
CALL ON ANY LOWER TEMPS OR FROST. THE OTHER ISSUE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG. CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS NOT QUITE IN FOG
RANGE ON BUFR SOUNDINGS...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED AS WELL.

SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT DAY WEATHER-WISE. WITH RIDGE
AXIS KEEPING ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL WEST...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND
WARMER. MIXING AFTN 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS ON THE NAM AND GFS DRY
ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE YIELDS SOME AREAS OF MID-UPR 70S. MET
AND MAV MOS FIGURES ARE BOTH IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE...SO HIGH TEMPS WERE BOOSTED.

.EXTENDED...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PASSING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH REPLACING THE RIDGE.

INCREASING WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO MAINLY OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS SURFACE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER
OUR CWA INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEING DISPLACED LATER TUESDAY. THIS HIGH
SHOULD KEEP BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER OUR WESTERN CWA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GEM IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW FOR THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS
COMPARED TO THE GFS. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH
THAT PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR MORE RAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OVERALL...OUTSIDE OF LAKE BREEZES AND ANY STEADIER RAIN
AREAS...TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FT..WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS...WERE FOUND
OVER NRN WISCONSIN...EXTENDING NORTH OVER LAKE LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THIS AREA THROUGH 12Z...AFFECTING THE
KHYR AND KDLH TAF SITES. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID TO
HIGH CLOUD DECKS WILL PREVAIL WITH AN ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS AROUND 5 KFT WILL SCATTER FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SAT MORNING...CLEARING SAT EVENING.

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 45 69 50 / 10 10 0 10
INL 70 42 75 56 / 20 20 10 20
BRD 70 47 72 55 / 10 0 10 20
HYR 64 40 74 51 / 10 0 0 10
ASX 60 40 69 48 / 10 10 0 10

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

SHORT TERM...LAMERS
EXTENDED....MELDE
AVIATION...GRANING

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KSLC 051230
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
630 AM MDT SUN JUN 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY AND MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK AS A PACIFIC STORM MOVES INLAND.

.DISCUSSION...DEEPER INSPECTION OF THE LOCAL 12KM WRF-NMM SUGGESTS
THAT THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR TOMORROW MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT AND CACHE VALLEY.
THE MODEL SHOWS A TROPOPAUSE FOLD CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH IS JUXTAPOSED WITH 60KTS OF AVERAGE FLOW
WITHIN THE 700-500MB MIX LAYER. 4KM CRAS WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
FORECAST SHOWS THE FORECAST DRY SLOT PROGRESSING COINCIDENTALLY WITH
THE HIGHER POTENTIAL VORTICITY ON THE LOCAL 12KM WRF-NMM. NO CHANGES
AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO CONSIDER FOR LATER SHIFTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS RIDGING DOMINATING THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH AN UPPER LOW NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH...IT
WILL BE A SUNNY DAY. A 4C INCREASE IN 700MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
LAST EVENING AND THIS EVENING WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S NORTHERN VALLEYS AND NEAR 100F SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE
CYCLONE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.

BY MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 700MB INCREASES TO BETWEEN 40-50KTS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSES NEVADA DURING THE MORNING AND
WESTERN UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON. QUITE A DYNAMIC SITUATION WITH
10DM HEIGHT FALLS MONDAY. INSPECTION OF NAM/LOCAL 12KM WRF-NMM
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP LAYER MIXING UP TO 500MB
WHICH IS BELIEVABLE GIVEN THE DYNAMICS. LOOKING AT A 700-500MB LAYER
AVERAGE OF WINDS...WESTERN UTAH COULD EASILY MIX TO 50-70KTS. THIS
PATTERN FITS THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR A DYNAMIC HIGH WIND EVENT FOR
UTAH. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE WESTERN ZONES INCLUDING
THE SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS. LOOKS LIKE ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE UTAH ZONES WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AS
DIFLUENT FLOW INCREASES DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. 21Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN UTAH INTO IDAHO. ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THEN PROPAGATE NNE INTO IDAHO.

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
PERIODIC SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. GFS/EUROPEAN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST IMPULSE EXITS BY BY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH A SECONDARY FEATURE ARRIVING IN DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DURING THE MID WEEK. A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DROPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEBER
RIVER SYSTEM BELOW ECHO RESERVOIR TO ITS TERMINATION AT THE GREAT
SALT LAKE AND LOST CREEK FROM ITS RESERVOIR TO THE CONFLUENCE OF
THE WEBER. OTHER FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT ARE FOR THE SOUTH FORK
OF THE OGDEN AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SEVIER RIVER. REFER TO THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS/IMPACTS ON ALL FLOOD
WARNINGS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND ACCELERATE THE SNOWMELT AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL REQUIRE VERY CLOSE MONITORING
OF AREA STREAMS/RIVERS AS SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
THUS FAR THIS YEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS FOR A 72 HOUR PERIOD.

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT THE SLC TERMINAL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THAN NORMAL
TODAY...ABOUT 21-22Z WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF HOLDING OFF UNTIL
23Z. WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY FOR A TIME THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BETWEEN ABOUT 16-19Z. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

.FIRE WEATHER...THE LOW ALONG THE CA COAST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FIRE DISTRICTS TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN LOW WITH MOST READINGS WELL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
VALLEYS. WINDS JUST TOUCHED CRITICAL VALUES YESTERDAY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY SO HAVE
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE TWO FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE
FUELS ARE DEEMED CRITICAL. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
MONDAY AND SHOULD EXCEED CRITICAL SPEEDS ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT
HUMIDITIES MAY NOT DROP QUITE AS LOW IN THESE WESTERN VALLEYS AS THE
LOW SWINGS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DISTRICT. SO HAVE LEFT THE WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE WATCH FOR THE
EASTERN VALLEYS MONDAY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS MORE LIKE HUMIDITIES WILL
FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THAT AREA.

HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR TONIGHT BUT SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE REMAINING LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST UTAH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE COOLER MORE STABLE AIRMASS SPREADS IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THE ONLY CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WILL BE ALONG THE IDAHO
BORDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING BELOW 6000 FEET FOR UTZ439-440.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
BELOW 6000 FEET FOR UTZ431-432-438>441.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
UTZ003-005-015-016.

WY...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC/HYDROLOGY...ROGOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KOHX 251559 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1059 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

.UPDATE...
MORNING ANALYSES DEPICT A 500 MB LOW OVER KS AT 12Z WITH ASSOCIATED
200 TO 300 MB JET MAX LOCATED S OF LOW OVER OK AND N TX AREA.
MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE E TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT TO
S IL...AND ONLY BEGIN A NE MOVEMENT LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD
STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO OUR AREA.

TOOK A GANDER AT CRAS MODEL...GFS AND NAM PRECIP EFFICIENCY AND
GFS...NAM AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND AT THIS TIME ALL SIGNS POINT
TO LIKELIHOOD THAT A WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT AT LEAST IN OUR FAR W
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITIES ALSO SHOW
GOOD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER OUR W AND NW BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

STEEP LAPSE RATES BOTH 700 TO 500 MB AND 850 TO 500 MB...PLUS DECENT
CAPE IN HAIL GROWTH ZONE SHOW LIKELIHOOD OF A LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. LARGE HELICITY VALUES THANKS TO A VEERING LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALSO MAKE TORNADOES A REAL POSSIBILITY...BUT
MAINLY IN W PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

TO SUMMARIZE...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE W PART OF OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. OVER THE E PART OF OUR AREA...THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE INITIALLY SO THAT ONLY LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIP
CAN BE EXPECTED. WITH THE UPPER LOW TAKING A MORE NE MOVEMENT LATE
TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LESSEN AS WIND FIELDS
BEGIN TO RELAX SOMEWHAT.

WILL BEEF UP POPS A TAD TO LIKELY CATEGORY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
FAR W AND NW...BUT NOT CHANGE THEM MUCH FOR REST OF AREA.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011/

AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH MIDDLE TN ON
THURSDAY BUT PRE FRONTAL TROUGHING WILL BRING A ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST TONIGHT THEY WILL
WEAKEN WITH TIME. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL FALL WITHIN THE IFR CATEGORY
WHEN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION TAKES PLACE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011/

DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS SHOWING WELL DEFINE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WITH
AIRMASS QUITE UNSTABLE SOUTH SIDE. ALOFT...WEAK ML/UL RIDGING OCCURRING
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO KS. REGIONAL
RADARS QUIET COMPARING PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN IN
VICINITY OF PLAINS FEATURES.

PLAINS SFC/UPPER LOWS WILL MAKE SLOW TRACK EAST...MOVING OVER MO
00Z THU...IL 12Z...AND THEN UP TOWARD NORTHERN IN 00Z FRI. THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY BRING UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
THE REGION AND ACROSS THE CWA LATER THU. ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE
AND BETTER UVV WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA LATER TODAY BUT MORE
SO TONIGHT AND THU. THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE PLENTY OF WORK WITH
AS CAPES RUN 2000-2500 AND SRH 250+...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON. THIS
WILL BRING A ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
LARGELY TONIGHT/EARLY THU. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS REALLY WEAKEN
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WHAT LOOKS LIKE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES. A
FEW STORMS WILL HANG AROUND THU EVENING BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY
MUCH WRAPPED UP BY FRI MORNING WITH FRONT AND UPPER TROUGHS JUST
EAST.

WHILE FRI EXPECTED TO BE DRY...PASSING FRONT GONE RAPIDLY AS
SOUTHERLY LL FLOWS RETURNS FRI NIGHT AND ANOTHER BOUNDARY SETS UP
JUST NORTHWEST. ML/UL FLOW GOES BACK WEST AND POSSIBILITY OF ISO-
SCT DEVELOPMENT OUT WEST RIDING DOWN INTO THE CWA LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY
SAT AGAIN ARISES.

ANY CONVECTION EARLY SAT SHOULD BE IT FOR MOST FROM THAT POINT INTO
MID-WEEK AS SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BECOMES DOMINANT SUN AND
HOLDS INTO WED. SOME MOISTURE DOES SNEAK IN EARLY WED EAST AND
THAT MAY POP A FEW ISO STORMS ON THE PLATEAU IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
STEIGERWALDT

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KOHX 010001
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
701 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SHORT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH FAR WESTERN
KENTUCKY HAS WEAKENED DURING THE LAST HOUR WHILE CONTINUING TO
MOVE NORTHEAST AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. LINE GENERALLY ORIENTED
ALONG WESTERN SIDE OF HIGHER THETA E AXIS AND IN THE GRADIENT
AREA.

BOYD

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011/

UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING. COLD FRONT BACK
JUST WEST OF FORT SMITH ARKANSAS. 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS UP AHEAD OF
FRONT INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOVING EAST AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. RAPID
REFRESH AND CRAS ARE BOTH SLOWER IN BRINGING PRECIP EASTWARD TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW
THAT CHANGES ARE AHEAD AS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERS MUCH OF
THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HRS.

STILL LOOKING AT THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY. THE ACTUAL FROPA IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL GENERALLY SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EXCEPT FOR A
SLIGHT BREAK SUNDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PVA INFLUENCE
BECOMES MORE NEUTRALIZED SO THAT WE SEE A DECREASE IN CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS IT
STRENGTHENS AGAIN ON MONDAY.

DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND THEREBY
BRING A FINAL ROUND OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 3 1/2 INCHES FAR NORTHWEST TO
ABOUT 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. AS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED AS THE SLT CHC FOR SVR REMAIN TO
OUR WEST.

WILL REISSUE THE HYDRO OUTLOOK(ESF) BUT WILL INCLUDE ONLY THE
WESTERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE MID STATE.

IN THE EXT FCST...A RETURN TO A DRIER REGIME IS INDICATED. TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR EARLY MAY.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMPX 270837
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

.DISCUSSION...

THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN IS IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING ATTM. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE
TODAY ALONG A FRONT FROM OHIO RIVER VLY INTO CTRL GREAT LAKES AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD KEEP MN/WI IN MOIST CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TODAY
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW GRADUALLY ABATING ON THURSDAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE A CLOUDY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM AND
UW-MADISON CRAS MODEL SIMULATED CLOUD COVER PRODUCTS SHOW A FEW
SMALL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING BUT THE OVERALL THEME IS A PERSISTENT LOW-MID CLOUD DECK.
FOR THOSE REASONS...HIGHS WERE TRENDED DOWN FOR TODAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NE HALF OF THE CWA.

NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SCTD SHOWERS
CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON RADAR WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. WITH SFC TEMPS GENERALLY OVER 36 DEGREES...THE TREND
OF LESSENING THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF R/S MIX WAS CONTINUED FROM
WHAT THE EVENING SHIFT HAD ALREADY DONE. THERE MAY BE A LULL WITH
LOWER COVERAGE / INTENSITY OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST SURFACE LOW WEAKENS. MODELS SHOW LOW TO MID
LVL FGEN INCREASING AGAIN JUST AFTER 00Z...AND THIS MAY BE WHEN
STEADIER RAIN RE-DEVELOPS. THE LATEST 4KM WRF RUNS SUPPORT THIS
TREND...AND EXIT PRECIP FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURS AM.

THE NEXT LOW WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
FRI NGT AND SAT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM ON THE 00Z RUNS...AND SEEM TO POINT TO 06Z
TO 18Z SAT AS THE MAIN WINDOW FOR PRECIP. THEREFORE...THE RELATED
GRID EDITS WERE TO BUMP THINGS UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF SRN
AND CTRL MN FRI NGT AND TO CUT BACK INHERITED POPS SAT NGT INTO
SUN NGT. GFS FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE ELEVATED CAPE VALUES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG...SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THUNDER...SO THAT WORDING WAS
MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS.

AJL

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EASTERN
PORTION OF MN AND WESTERN PORTION OF WI THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
CIGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH IFR CIGS IN RAIN/SNOW. THE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING AS LOW
DRIFTS EAST. WILL KEEP PREVIOUS TREND FOR PRECIP FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS IT IS SCATTERED IN NATURE. ALSO...THERE IS STILL A
THREAT FOR RAIN/SNOW MIXED AT KSTC/KEAU/KMSP/KRNH FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

AJL/MS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 241839
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
139 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER WI TONIGHT. THEN LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MO AND CENTRAL IL ON MONDAY...AND ACROSS LAKE MI ON TUE. LOW
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE DENSE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES SOUTHERN WI...AND IT WILL BE
OVERCAST ON MONDAY.

THE FIRST 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN WI MON AFTERNOON.
THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER JET...700MB OMEGA AND 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COME
TOGETHER OVER NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI MON AFTERNOON. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING THE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS TRIES TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS INTO ALL OF SOUTHERN
WI EARLIER THAN THE NAM...WHICH ONLY BRINGS THE SHOWERS INTO
SOUTHWEST WI. IT WILL DEPEND ON THE SFC TRACK AND HOW QUICKLY THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN OVERCOME THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. FOR
NOW...KEPT THE RAIN CHANCE GOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE 18Z-00Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 60 INLAND TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE LAKE
ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EASTERLY AHEAD
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS/INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT.
THE 12Z GFS AND CRAS CONTINUES TO TREND FASTER THAN THE 12Z NAM
AND 00Z ECMWF. PREFER THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AS TRENDS THAT LAST FEW
DAYS HAS BEEN CLOSER TO THE SLOWER MODELS. ON TUESDAY GFS/NAM AND
ECMWF HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER WISCONSIN OR EASTERN
MINNESOTA. ON WEDNESDAY MODELS ALL HAVE COME INTO LINE IN KEEPING
THIS UPPER LOW/TROUGH NEAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY FROM NORTHERN NEVADA/UTAH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LEAD LOW MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI MONDAY EVENING
AND INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN OR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY
MORNING. MODEL SPREAD HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE OLDER NAM/ECMWF.
NOW THE FARTHER EAST GFS IS ACTUALLY THE FARTHEST WEST...TAKING
THE LOW INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY NOON TUESDAY. HOWEVER ALL MODELS
HAVE A RATHER BAGGY LOW...AND NONE REALLY PUSH UP THE WARM
SECTOR. THEREFORE RAIN COOLED LOW LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED...AND
MODELS STILL HAVE VERY WEAK ELEVATED CAPE. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH SMALL HAIL POSSIBILITIES. OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT NAM TAKES TIL EVENING TO ELIMINATE THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...AND BY THEN MID LEVELS DRY WITH FAIRLY STABLE
LAPSE RATES AROUND 4 TO 5C/KM ABOVE 850 MB AND 7.5 C/KM AT 900 MB.

THEN A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS
ARKANSAS TUESDAY MORNING...AND MOVES IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION WEDNESDAY AS IT INTENSIFIES...BEFORE REACHING LAKE ERIE AND
LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD
AFFECT SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY ON THE ECMWF AND
DGEX...MAINLY IN THE COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL TAKE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NORTHEAST...AND
MERGE IT WITH THE OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS STILL A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND
SLOWER WITH THE RESULTANT UPPER LOW/TROUGH.

SURFACE TROUGH ON THE ECMWF AND DGEX EXTENDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA A LITTLE MORE THAN THE GFS.

SOME LIGHT QPF ON ECMWF AND DGEX...WITH ONLY SPOTTY HUNDREDTHS SEEN
ON THE GFS. 850 MB RH IS RATHER HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY...AND WITH EXPECTED STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD AND COLD UPPER
TROUGH...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER COOL.

.LONG TERM...

.FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH OFF TO THE
EAST AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS OVER WISCONSIN.

SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN SO EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER DAY.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRINGS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS MONTANA AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. GFS IS QUICKER IN MOVING IT
TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE ECMWF IS OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

BOTH MODELS HAVE SOUTH SURFACE WINDS AND SHOWERS IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN SATURDAY. GFS HAS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS WISCONSIN BY SATURDAY EVENING...WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THIS
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. SLIGHT PREFERENCE TO THE ECMWF.

ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST DAY SATURDAY WHILE
GFS BRINGS IT IN FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS GRIDS ON
THIS.

ON SUNDAY THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE IN DRY WEDGE OF THE OCCLUDING
SURFACE LOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

.AVIATION...

STUBBORN STRATO CU SHOULD BREAK UP A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE TOUGH TO SEE THE SUN WITH THE HIGH CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND NORTHERN
LOWER MI MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE RAIN WOULD SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI BY MID
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH THE
RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

.MARINE...

WE COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BRISK EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AS THE LOW PASSES BY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...13/MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 231835
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
135 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL OOZE INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT. THERE WAS
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ACROSS ALL OF MN AND IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN WI
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS. RUC SNDGS AND
MODEL RH HINT AT SOME SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUDS POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...BUT SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MORE
STRATO CU DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...AROUND 4000
FEET...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AND THICK AS TODAY. BY EARLY SUN
MORNING...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THAT
ARE SPILLING NORTHWARD FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM UNDER
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...AND STAY MAINLY LIGHT ON SUNDAY.
A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THE SHORTWAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS/INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY THE SHORTWAVE ON THE
GFS AND CRAS APPROACHES ONTARIO WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO
THE 12Z NAM AND 06Z DGEX WITH A CLOSED LOW STILL OVER SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN. PREFER THIS SLOWER APPROACH SINCE
GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY TRENDED FASTER ONLY TO SLOW DOWN WITH A NEWER
MODEL RUN.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY FROM NORTHERN NEVADA/UTAH AND
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY. TIMING ON THIS IS
ACTUALLY SIMILAR BY WEDNESDAY EVENING ON GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX. EACH
HAS A SMALL LEAD SHORTWAVE THAT RAPIDLY PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES/LOWER MICHIGAN.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LEAD LOW MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI MONDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN OR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SPREAD HAS THE GFS TRACK OF THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF/DGEX/12Z NAM BRINGS THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EVEN
SO LOW IS FAIRLY BAGGY AND DOUBT MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHEAST WITH RAIN COOLED AIR IN THE MILWAUKEE AND
KENOSHA SOUNDING BELOW 925 MB...UNTIL OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL THIS WOULD HAVE MORE OF A
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NAM DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED CAPE...SO SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL
LIMITED.

THEN A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AND
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY EVENING
BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST...BUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD AFFECT SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY ON THE
ECMWF AND DGEX...MAINLY IN THE COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

NOW 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR TO 00Z ECMWF IN KEEPING THE COLD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FAIRLY HIGH 850 MB RH THURSDAY THEN DRYING
OUT A LITTLE THURSDAY NIGH. THIS WOULD INDICATE COOL CONDITIONS
WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS ON THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY GFS CONTINUE THE FASTER TREND OF BRINGING IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF.

.SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

GFS BRINGS NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AREA...WHILE ECMWF HAS MORE AMPLITUDE AND HANGS BACK THE UPPER LOW
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST DAY SATURDAY WHILE
GFS BRINGS IT IN FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS GRIDS ON
THIS.

.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.
EXPECTING BKN CLOUDS TO BECOME SCT SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS WISCONSIN. SCT TO BKN CU POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY...BUT ANTICIPATING VFR. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVERNIGHT...AND STAY MAINLY LIGHT ON SUNDAY. A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY
BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

.MARINE...

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND 4 PM OR SOON AFTER AS HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM. NEARLY CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT. A LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MID SUNDAY MORNING.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ644>646.

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...13/MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KOHX 211514
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1014 AM CDT THU APR 21 2011

.UPDATE...
SURFACE FRONT THIS MORNING DRAPED DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA
DOWN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO EAST TEXAS. TEMPS
NORTH OF FRONT GENERALLY IN THE 50S THIS MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. VISBLE SHOWING SOME SUN BREAKING THROUGH CLOUD DECK AT
TIMES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME A BIG PLAYER OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS IN TERMS OF RAINFALL NOT ONLY HERE IN MIDDLE TN BUT
ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY GFS TO START BACK
NORTH TONIGHT AND IS PROGGED TO LAY ALONG THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY
BORDER BY 12Z FRIDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY 00Z SATURDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS FRONT LIFTS UP THROUGH THE MID STATE. FRONT
WILL BE NORTH OF MID STATE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY SO EXPECT
HIGHER POPS TO BE NORTH OF KENTUCKY BORDER ON FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN
EVENT SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...WESTERN KY AND NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BASED ON GFS.
CRAS HAS THE HIGHER QPFS CLOSER TO THE MID STATE THAN GFS DOES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BOYD

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT THU APR 21 2011/

AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL WORK BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT BY THIS EVENING. WE WILL THEREFORE SEE A RETURN OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY AFTER 00Z. CIGS WILL DROP BELOW 3KFT
AFTER 08Z WITH VSBYS IN THE 3-5SM RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU APR 21 2011/

DISCUSSION...
YESTERDAYS PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW JUST SOUTH/EAST...WHERE SHWRS/
STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR. ML/UL FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY
ZONAL WHICH IS KEEPING FRONT FROM REALLY MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT FURTHER
PROGRESS SOUTH.

NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN ML/UL FLOW TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP BOUNDARY
QUASI-STATIONARY. MODERATE MOISTURE HOWEVER CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS
THE CWA...AS WELL AS DECENT INSTABILITY JUST ABOVE SHALLOW COLD AIR.
WEAK ML UVV EXPECTED TO PASS LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL HELP SET OFF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHWRS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY EXTREME SOUTH IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY MAKES NORTHWARD PUSH TONITE AS IT
GETS CAUGHT UP IN DEEPENING PLAINS LOW...SETTING UP FROM NEAR THE
TN/KY BORDER DOWN ACROSS THE PLATEAU AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS WILL
TRANSITION AREA BACK INTO WARM SECTOR...AND DEEPER LAYER OF
INSTABILITY. ENHANCED LL FORCING FROM BOUNDARY AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SHWRS/STORMS TO THE AREA
THIS EVENING...TAPERING OVERNIGHT AS FOCUS SHIFTS INTO KY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER NORTH ON FRI...EVENTUALLY ORIENTING
ITSELF ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHERE
IT GOES MORE PARALLEL TO ML/UL FLOW. VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE IN ML/UL
FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP BOUNDARY NORTH/WEST INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHEN UL LOW/TROF FINALLY GET INTO THE PICTURE. THUS
STARTING FRI POPS WILL RAMP DOWN THRU MON EVENING AS TEMPS GO
ABOVE SEASON NORMALS.

ON TUE...FRONT AND SHARP ML/UL TROF FINALLY MAKE SLOW EASTWARD
PUSH INTO THE MID-STATE...BUT TAKE ALL OF WED TO MOVE EAST. THIS
COULD BE POTENTIAL BIG RAIN IF SOLUTION WORKS OUT. WILL RAMP POPS
BACK UP TUE INTO MID-WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
OVERALL...EXPECTED PCPN AMOUNTS NEXT 24-36 HOURS STILL BELOW FLOOD
GUIDANCE HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...
ESPECIALLY TONITE WITH FRONT ON THE MOVE.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KDLH 070824
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
324 AM CDT THU APR 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...KEPT PATCHY DENSE FOG WORDING NEAR THE
HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR UNTIL 14Z AS OBS AND 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
PRODUCT SHOW PERSISTENCE OF AN AREA OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS. A FEW
OBS HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 1/4SM.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT SHOULD BRUSH THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE CWA AS IT ROUNDS THE PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER ERN
MT CURRENTLY. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THE COOLER CLOUD TOPS ON
IR SAT INTO NWRN CWA AROUND 18Z TODAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THIS
TIMING IN SKY/POP FIELDS OVER NEXT 12-18HRS AS IT MATCHED WELL
WITH SIMULATED SATELLITE FIELDS FROM NAM AND UW-CRAS MODELS.
INTRODUCED SOME LOW CHC POPS FAR NW. LLVL WAA AND FGEN ARE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR SUCH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND LATEST 4KM WRF NMM SHOWS
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS IMPACTING FAR N/NW MN LATER TODAY. EARLY
SIGNALS ARE THAT THIS NARROW BAND OF FORCING MAY BE SETTING UP
NEAR ND-SD BORDER NOW WITH SOME RW AND EVEN A CG LTNG STRIKE. AN
ENE TRAJECTORY OF THIS AREA OF FORCING WOULD CLIP MOSTLY NRN
ITASCA...KOOCHICHING...AND NRN ST. LOUIS COUNTIES.

ALL MODELS DRY THINGS OUT ON FRIDAY...SO WE CUT OUT THE POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME. IT SHOULD BE A WARM COUPLE DAYS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT LOCATION OF DENSER CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE KEY. OVERALL
IT APPEARS AS THERE SHOULD BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN BOTH DAYS
BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF LESS CLOUDS LOOKS TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. BOTH
MET AND MAV MOS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S IN THESE AREAS THU
AND FRI. THIS ACTUALLY LINES UP WELL WITH WHAT YOU WOULD GET
MIXING DRY ADIABATICALLY UP TO 850MB DURING THE AFTN BASED ON THE
CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPS. BASICALLY...IF IT GETS SUNNY DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE ON THE UPPER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS WAS ACCOUNTED FOR BY BUMPING HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.EXTENDED.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...AND A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY SKIRTING THE NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY COULD POSSIBLY SLIDE ENOUGH TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE WRN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE NORTHLAND. KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. WILL BE
MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION...WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE
A SFC/LOW-LVL INVERSION...ACCORDING TO BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS. WILL SEE SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...MAINLY OVER THE WI COUNTIES AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. THE
INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS WELL TO THE EAST BY MONDAY...BUT THE
NORTHLAND COULD STILL SEE LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH LATE MORNING
MON. BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY...CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING WEAK WAVE IS STILL IN
QUESTION AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS...SO JUST WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S...AND LOWS IN THE 40S THIS WEEKEND AND THE 30S BY THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT THU APR 7 2011/

AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

LIFR CIGS AT THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY MOVE BACK IN AT DLH
UNTIL 10Z. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS BEFORE SUNRISE FOR HIB...HYR AND BRD.
SHOWERS MAY BRUSH INL BY THURSDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 53 33 50 40 / 10 10 10 10
INL 50 33 53 38 / 30 40 10 20
BRD 61 37 58 40 / 10 10 10 10
HYR 57 36 58 40 / 10 10 10 10
ASX 55 35 51 42 / 10 10 10 10

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LAMERS
EXTENDED....TENTINGER
AVIATION....KK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KDLH 272330
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
UW-MADISON CRAS AND NAM MODEL CLOUD FORECASTS KEEP NE MN AND NW WI
IN AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BLOCKED FLOW
PATTERN CONTINUES AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SCT CU AROUND 4000-5000 FT
AGL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011/

DISCUSSION...SPLIT FLOW IN WESTERLIES CONTINUES WITH CWA
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SHORT TERM
CYCLOGENESIS. ERN CANADIAN VORTEX IN MID LVLS IS KEEPING SRN
BRANCH OF JET STREAM DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
OCCURS UNTIL MIDWEEK WHEN ERN VORTEX MOVES EAST AND HT RISES
DEVELOP OVER NRN PLAINS. AT SFC... LARGE ANTICYCLONE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH LACK OF APPRECIABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
AND LOW PWATS.. SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CLOUDS/PRECIP THROUGH MON/TUE.
BY WEDNESDAY...MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF MAY APPROACH AND COMBINED
WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION POPS MAY TREND HIGHER OVER NEXT FEW
MDL CYCLES. WILL LEAVE FCST DRY AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH GFS/SREF
SUGGEST WRN CWA MAY HAVE MEASUREABLE. GFS IS BIASED WITH REGARD
TO TRACE AMOUNTS AND THE PROB OF GEFS PRECIP GREATER THAN .05" IS
VERY LOW. EC IS DRY AND WILL LEAN WITH THIS IDEA FOR NOW. TRIMMED
PREVIOUS GRIDS BACK ON CLOUD AMOUNTS AND LOWERED SOME OVERNIGHT
MIN TEMPS WITH PERSISTENCE MAINTAINING SOME CHILLY OVERNIGHT
READINGS. MAX TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL RANGE UNTIL WED.

EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE FAST FLOW COMING ONTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A TROUGH
DEVELOPING TOWARD/OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG THE WEST COAST. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE OVER/NEAR THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY...WITH A COUPLE
DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. WE CONTINUED OUR POPS FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WOULD DICTATE
A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE. BRIEF RIDGING SATURDAY
SHOULD DRY WEATHER. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS CHANGED QUITE A BIT FROM IT'S
00Z RUN...AND ALSO DIFFERS FROM THE GFS. PREVIOUSLY...BOTH MODELS
HAD A LOW IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLANS BY SUNDAY...WITH PRECIP WELL
TO THE NORTH OVER THE NORTHLAND ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE AND
TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT. NOW...THE ECMWF IS SLOWER DUE TO IT CLOSING
OFF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHWEST CA/BAJA REGION. WE HAVE SOME
POPS GOING FOR SUNDAY...AND COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND.

NO REAL BIG WARM-UP EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...GENERALLY HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE FORTIES WITH LOWS TWENTY TO THIRTY.

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 2 33 11 37 / 0 0 0 0
INL 1 32 2 38 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 3 36 11 38 / 0 0 0 10
HYR -1 39 8 39 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 5 37 9 37 / 0 0 0 10

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...LAMERS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KOHX 260508
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1208 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

.UPDATE...FOR 26/06Z AVIATION FORECAST

.AVIATION...
BEGINNING TO SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AS ADVERTISED BY EARLIER MODELS INCLUDING GFS AND
RAPID UPDATE (HRRR). CRAS ALSO BREAKS RAIN OUT FIRST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WORKS IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEAR ALABAMA BORDER IN THE OVERNIGHT.
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA. FRONT WILL SLIP SLOWLY NORTHWARD BUT NOT MUCH FARTHER
THAN THE ALABAMA BORDER. THEREFORE WILL ONLY MENTION LIGHT RAIN
IN BOTH BNA AND CSV THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT ANY TSTMS TO REMAIN
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

BOYD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT PRECIP HAS THINNED OUT A GOOD DEAL IN THE
PAST FEW HOURS. FRONT IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER NORTH
MS/AL/GA. ALL MODELS REDEVELOP PRECIP OVER THE AREA OF THE FRONT
AND A FEW DEGREES TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. HAD
CONSIDERED LOWERING POPS...BUT DIDN'T WANT TO GIVE THE WRONG
IMPRESSION SINCE THE SFC LOW IS STILL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...OVER THE
ARKLATEX. MORE PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP BY 09-10Z OVER THE AREA
WITH PRECIP CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE SFC LOW
MOVES ENEWD ACROSS NORTHERN MS/AL/GA.

WILL KEEP THE CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MORE
PRECIP TO COME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011/

UPDATE...FOR 26/00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LAYING BETWEEN HUNTSVILLE AND BIRMINGHAM
ALABAMA THEN BACK TO JUST NORTH OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI...TO JUST SOUTH
OF MEMPHIS...THEN BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA. TEMPS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE CHILLY AND IN THE 40S
ACROSS TENNESSEE WHILE JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT TEMPS ARE IN THE
60S AND 70S. WILL NEED TO KEEP CLOSE TABS ON FRONTAL POSITION NEXT
24 HOURS AS MUCH OF THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EVERYTHING I'VE LOOKED AT TELLS ME THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...POSSIBLY REACHING THE
TENNESSEE/ALABAMA BORDER SATURDAY EVENING.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE NEAR SHORT TERM...THE EURO MODEL CLEARLY HAS THE BEST GRASP
ON THIS CURRENT SYSTEM. MODELS ARE LOOKING AS THOUGH THEY WILL MATCH
UP A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS HOWEVER.

STILL EXPECTING OVERRUNNING TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WE HAD A FEW
REPORTS OF ICE PELLETS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST EARLIER TODAY. A CLOSE
LOOK AT THE SOUNDING DOES INDICATE WET BULB WARMING WITH TIME INTO
THIS EVENING. THUS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ANY ICE
PELLET ACTIVITY.

UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING RAINFALL TO THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM TRACK APPEARS TO BE A
SOUTHERLY ONE WHEREBY THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN AL. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO A LESSER CHANCE OF TSTMS WHILE TEMPS WILL BE COOLER.
A LOOK AT ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT THE SOUTHERLY TRACK.
THEREFORE...FOR THE FORECAST I WILL INCLUDE JUST A CHANCE OF T SOUTH
AND NO T NORTH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK AS THOUGH A HALF INCH OR SO CAN BE EXPECTED AT
MOST AREAS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NT. THE SHOWERS WILL END
EARLY SUNDAY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...I WILL BE UNDERCUTTING THE MAV MAX
TEMPS...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AS A WET AND RAW PATTERN WILL
REMAIN.

IN THE EXT FCST...A RETURN FLOW WITH A SHORT LIVED WARMING TREND
WILL SET UP ON MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN PULL ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS KY BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PLACE THE MID STATE IN MORE OF THE WARM SECTOR. THUS...IT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SVR STORMS. OTW...HIGH TEMPS
WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 201951
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
251 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN CLUSTER SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS SETTING UP INTO THE EVENING WITH NOSE OF 250
MILLIBAR JET DRIVING INTO CWA WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...SURFACE
THROUGH 850 MILLIBARS. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ADVECTING TOWARDS SOUTHERN WI. SURFACE MOIST AXIS GETS
DRAWN INTO FAR SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING. IN FACT TEMPS WILL LIKELY
GET A BOOST THIS EVENING AS SOME OF THE WARMER TEMPS ARRIVE FROM
IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MAIN QUESTION IS LOWER LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS.
WITH BETTER HEATING FURTHER SOUTH APPEARS SURFACE BASED STORMS OUT
OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER ELEVATED CAPE OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL WARRANTS THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW WHISKING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT THE WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BRINGING END TO
PRECIP. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS KEEP WRAPAROUND STROTOCU SHIELD ACROSS
NORTHERN WI.

MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE HIGH AXIS SLIDES ACROSS WI. COLUMN LOOKS FAIRLY DRY. SOME
SATURATION AT AND ABOVE 15K FEET. APPEARS NAM MOS TEMPS TOO COLD.
LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS TEMPS. COOLER LAKESIDE AS WINDS TURN
ONSHORE.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SECOND SHORTWAVE IS EJECTED...MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY
NIGHT AS MID/UPPER RIDGE MOVE INTO WISCONSIN. THE SHORTWAVE THEN
MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS AREA TUESDAY.

THIS BRINGS 12Z NAM SURFACE LOW INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY.
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER/FATHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA.

12Z NAM INDICATES UPWARD MOTION BECOMING QUITE STRONG AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND TOWARDS SUNRISE OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. MID LEVELS QUICKLY
SATURATE WHILE DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO
MOISTEN. EVAPORATIVE COOLING RESULTS IN A WINDOW OF SNOW
POSSIBILITIES ESPECIALLY TOWARD SHEBOYGAN TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN
THERE WARM NOSE EVENTUALLY REACHES 2C AROUND 750 MB DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE SLEET. WEAK ELEVATED CAPE MAINLY
SOUTH OF AROUND 20 J/KG LIFTING FROM NEAR 750 MB TO 600 MB TUESDAY
NIGHT SO ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. SOME ELEVATED CAPE CONTINUES
TUESDAY SOUTH...UP TO 50 J/KG. QPF TOTALS INCREASE DURING THE DAY
BUT MAINLY MODERATE AMOUNTS. 24 HOUR TOTALS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 0.25 TO 0.60 ON NAM WITH 0.33 TO 0.85
INCHES ON THE GFS.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

BY WEDNESDAY 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF PUSHES THE SHORTWAVE INTO
WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE LOW THEN MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA
TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE 12Z NAM/12Z CRAS BUT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA ON
THE GFS/ECMWF. THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN WITH A BIT MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ON THE
GFS/ECMWF...MORE TOWARDS THE ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER.

ALL MODELS KEEPING 540 THICKNESS VALUES NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ONLY THE FAR NORTH...MAINLY TOWARDS FOND DU
LAC/SHEBOYGAN DOES NAM SOUNDINGS HAVE A SNOW/SLEET POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES/COOL AND THICKNESS VALUES LOWER WITH A MIX/CHANGEOVER
OCCURRING OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OFF 12Z NAM. NEW 12Z ECMWF IS THE COLLEST OF THE MODELS.

HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AROUND 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES WITH THIS
EVENT WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WHEN PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN. NAM
INDICATES BIGGEST WINTER THREAT WOULD BE TOWARD SHEBOYGAN/FOND DU
LAC. HOWEVER GFS IS WARMER ALOFT WITH NO SNOW/SLEET POTENTIAL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO COOL AT THE SURFACE...BUT REMAIN AT OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING. DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
SINCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE FREEZING. ONLY
POTENTIAL AT THIS MOMENT APPEARS FAR NORTHEAST.

OVER THE SOUTH ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 232 J/KG IF LIFTED FROM 850
MB. TEMPS NEAR 10Z AT THIS LAYER WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR
7C/KM SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL.

TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM THIS EVENTS WOULD ADD
TO RIVER RISES FROM THE RECENT SNOW MELT.

BY WEDNESDAY SOUNDINGS COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE NORTH
HALF...BUT BY THEN ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THICNESS
VALUES INDICATE SNOW SOUTH...BUT FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB FOR MAINLY LIQUID OR A MIX.

.LONG TERM...

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND EXTENDS SOMEWHAT INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW
SOME STRATOCUMULUS WOULD LINGER...ESPECIALLY EAST DURING DAYTIME
HEATING.

MEANWHILE...A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE MINNESOTA AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

PREFER THE DRY ECMWF/DGEX OVER THE 12Z GFS. MODELS TRY TO BRING A
STRAY WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS WISCONSIN ON THE GFS AND FARTHER SOUTH
OVER MISSOURI ON THE ECMWF.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS
EJECTED TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY...BUT IS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH ON THE 00Z ECMWF. BY SUNDAY MODELS TAKE THIS SHORTWAVE
TOWARD WISCONSIN. 12Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS.

AS A RESULT SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN ON THE 00Z
ECMWF BUT THE GFS DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI SPREADING RAIN INTO WISCONSIN.

GFS IS MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS AND LOOKS MORE LIKE THE
06Z DGEX. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS GRIDS BUT LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE ECMWF.

.AVIATION...

WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM IOWA AND
ILLINOIS...PLENTY OF IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS. THE WARM FRONT PROGGD TO
LIFT BARELY INTO SOUTHERN WI BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT
SWING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE CEILINGS/VSBYS. WRAPAROUND LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
STAY ACROSS NORTHERN WI LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EVENING
CONVECTIVE DEVLOPMENT THIS STILL A QUESTION MARK. DECENT
DYNAMICS...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THOUGH INSTABILITY NOT GREAT. AT
THIS POINT EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THESE IN THE TAFS YET AS COVERAGE/TIMING/DURATION UNCLEAR
AT THIS TIME.

.MARINE...

BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THE LOW PASSES NEARBY
THIS EVENING THERE COULD BE A LULL. BUT AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST THE
POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT LATER TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM TONIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...10/COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KOHX 191503
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1003 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

.UPDATE...
COOL FRONT ALL THE WAY DOWN IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AT 19/15Z WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW WORKING INTO MID STATE. TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S NORTH
OF OHIO RIVER WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. BULK OF STRATOCUMULUS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND SLIPPING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. ALTHOUGH
CONTRAST IS POOR...CRAS HAS LOW STUFF WORKING SOUTH DURING THE DAY
WHILE BRINGING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BACK ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS OF MID STATE EARLY THIS EVENING. BELIEVE ONCE SUN GETS OUT
WE WILL SEE TEMPS START TO CLIMB BUT MAY FALL SHORT OF CURRENT
FORECAST SO MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AND TRIM AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A
BIT. IF LOW LEVEL INVERSION COULD GET WIPED OUT THROUGH MIXING WE
WOULD MAKE CURRENT TEMP FORECAST SO WILL WAIT AND GIVE FORECAST A
CHANCE TO FLY. ALSO...CANT RULE OUT A SHOWER NEAR ALABAMA BORDER
BUT DOESNT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH.

BOYD

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...CONTINUED SWD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL/MOISTURE
MOVEMENT...EROSION OF LOW LEVEL VFR CEILINGS...MID LEVEL
CEILING DEVELOPMENT AOA 20/00Z-20/12Z...ALONG WITH LOCAL IMPACTS.
WITH WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD...AND A
REDUCTION EXPECTED IN POST FRONTAL MOISTURE POTENTIAL...WILL GO
WITH VCSH REMARKS ONLY THRU 19/18Z. EXPECT AS SFC/LOW LEVEL
RIDGING INFLUENCES BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED FROM A0A
19/18Z-20/00Z...MID LEVEL BKN AC CEILINGS WILL BE PREVALENT AT
BNA/CSV. AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU
20/12Z...AC DECK WITH BECOME OVC IN NATURE.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL KY ATTM. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THUS...THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP IS
POST FRONTAL. A CLOSE LOOK AT THE GFS AND NAM 850 MB MOISTURE
PROFILE SHOWS THAT THE MODELS ARE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE. ADDITIONALLY...WITH TIME THE MOISTURE AXIS OVER KY WILL
SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BUT IT WILL DECREASE IN TERMS OF THE
MOISTURE LEVELS. THEREFORE...FOR TODAY...I WILL INCLUDE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY FOR THE MORNING WITH A SLT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THEN...
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NO MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AL TODAY. IT
WILL THEN RETURN QUICKLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY. WITHIN
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRAVERSE THE AREA
AND PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS FOR SUNDAY.
OTW...PARTIAL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...MAV NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE SO WONT DIFFER
BY MUCH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO PREVAIL.

IN THE EXT FCST...STILL LOOKING AT A MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE A WEST TO EAST COLD FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD
AND BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE AREA TUES NT THROUGH WED NT.
COLDER TEMPS TO FOLLOW. EURO SOLUTION LOOKS WET ON FRIDAY BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FCST WHICH LEANS TOWARD THE DRIER GFS
SOLUTION.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...MEX NUMBERS LOOK BEATABLE AT TIMES. WILL GO
WARMER IN THE PRE FRONTAL SECTOR ON TUES/TUES NT...COOLER POST
FRONTAL. HOPING TO SCORE BIG AS THE EURO SOLUTION MATCHES UP WELL
WITH THE WED NT FROPA.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KOHX 101201
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
601 AM CST THU MAR 10 2011

.UPDATE...FOR 10/12Z AVIATION FORECAST

.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW ALONG SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD WHILE UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA KEEPING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP GOING THROUGH MID-DAY AT BNA AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT CSV. CRAS HOLDS ONTO LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 11/06Z AT BNA
AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND AT CSV.

BOYD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST THU MAR 10 2011/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...VERY INTERESTING REGIONAL RADAR DISPLAY AS
OF 09Z...WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE NW...AND LIGHT RAIN
MOVING S TO N ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. THIS IS LIKELY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED
UPPER LEVEL LOW...BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE. EXPECT
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS W TO E ACROSS THE MID STATE
TODAY...PROVIDING FOR A CONTINUANCE OF CLDY SKIES AND KEEPING TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF ACCUMULATING
RAINFALL WITH THIS PASSAGE...AND WILL GO WITH A CHANCE W TO LIKELY
ACROSS PLATEAU REGION FOR TODAY. TEMPS MAY DROP ENOUGH THIS
MORNING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE N CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU ALSO.

AS UPPER LEVEL FEATURES MOVE TO THE E TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAINFALL FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65...
WITH AGAIN THE CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A OVERALL BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW MAY OCCUR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE PLATEAU REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SOME SLIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AS FIRST MENTIONED IN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON'S
AFD...WILL CONTINUE WITH REASONING OF ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE HALF
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. WILL
GO WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S...UPPER 20S PLATEAU.

LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL
WARMUP IN TEMPS TO MORE SEASONABLE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND LOWS AROUND 40.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES...
AND WENT WITH A CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN AGREEMENT WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...WITH HIGHS WARMING THRU THE 60S...LOWS RISING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHWRS SUN
NIGHT THRU MOST OF THE DAY ON TUE.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KOHX 190522
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1122 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

.UPDATE...FOR 19/06Z AVIATION FORECAST

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIMINSHING RATHER QUICKLY LAST HOUR
AND EXPECT TREND TO CONTINUE. COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
AT LATE EVENING WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. CURRENTLY
CLEARING LINE JUST NORTH OF MID STATE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT ANY CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295 KELVIN SURFACE WILL GET UNDERWAY LATE TONIGHT THAT
WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE MID STATE
BETWEEN 19/12Z AND 19/15Z IN BNA AND AROUND 19/18Z TO CSV. THIS IS
BEST DISPLAYED IN LATEST CRAS RUN WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS DEVELOPMENT.

BANKING ON DRIER AIR NOW OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY TO WORK DOWN INTO
MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND KEEP FOG FROM FORMING AT BNA BUT CSV
MAY GET A TEMPO PERIOD OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL ABOUT 19/10Z
TAKING THE VSBY DOWN TO 5SM BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

BOYD

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011/

UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE NOT SINKING SWD AS FAST AS ORIGINAL FORECAST
ANTICIPATED. HAVE SLOWED THE PROCESS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. REMAINDER
ALL OK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011/

UPDATE...FOR 19/00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WITH MID 60S ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. ANALYZED COLD FRONT ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT 18/23Z WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND IN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. SKIES
HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF KENTUCKY NORTHWARD AND BACK
INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS. MODELS SLIP FRONT INTO NORTH ALABAMA BY
19/06Z AND STALL IT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND 19/18Z BEFORE
TURNING IT AROUND AS A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

BASICALLY LOOKING FOR MVFR AT BNA THROUGH ABOUT 19/05Z DUE TO
CEILINGS/VSBYS AND AT CSV UNTIL 19/06Z WITH LATE NIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING AT CSV FROM 19/08Z THROUGH 19/14Z. WIND MAY STAY UP
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING AT BNA PLUS DRIER AIR WILL BE
FILTERING IN SO DID NOT INCLUDE FOG AT BNA FOR THOSE REASONS. WHAT
BREAK WE HAVE IN CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THEY
RETURN QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE 290 KELVIN ISENTROPIC SURFACE.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER. A SOLID
BAND OF SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN MOVING
SOUTHWARD AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THUS...WILL
CARRY 20-40 POPS FOR THE MID STATE FOR TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THUS...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL END BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...WE WILL SEE OUR SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS A STORM SYSTEM GETS CRANKED UP OVER THE MIDWEST. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. THUS...RAIN
CHANCES TO RETURN BY MONDAY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...GFS NUMBERS LOOK BEATABLE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SFC ANALYSIS IS NOT SHOWING COLD AIR NORTH OF BOUNDARY
RIGHT NOW. THEREFORE...THE 37F LOW AT BNA LOOKS TOO COOL. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDINESS SO I WILL UNDERCUT THE GFS
MAX TEMPS.

IN THE EXT FCST...WE'LL SEE CAA RETURN ON MON NT...BUT SOUNDINGS
STILL KEEP FREEZING LEVELS TOO HIGH FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP. WE'LL SEE
A WARM FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
MOISTURE RETURNS...WE'LL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER THAN NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KRIW 232216
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
316 PM MST THU DEC 23 2010

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHED SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEHIND OUR
SHORTWAVE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPED IN QUITE A FEW OF OUR ERN
AND SRN ZONES AND CONTINUED OUT WEST. CPR WARMED TO ABOUT 40F
EARLY THIS MORNING WHEN THE SHORTWAVE WENT THROUGH BUT THEN THE
COLD FRONT PUSHED BACK SOUTH AND TEMPS WERE COLDER THE REST OF THE
DAY ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT WORKED ITS WAY SOUTH FROM
TWENTYMILE HILL. FOG PERSISTED MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE UPPER GREEN
AND JACKSON VALLEY. THE MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS WILL FOG AND ITS DURATION AND THICKNESS. SOUNDINGS LOOK
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR FOG OUT WEST TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE LOW
LYING CENTRAL AND WRN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE
SOUNDINGS LOOK CLASSIC BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH JUST TWO NEGATIVES
TO BE CONCERNED WITH. ONE IS LACK OF SNOW COVER IN THE CENTRAL
WIND RIVER BASIN WHILE OTHER AREAS GENERALLY HAVE SNOW. THE SECOND
ITEM IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SOUNDINGS DON'T SUPPORT ANY THICKER HIGH CLOUDS BUT CRAS IMAGERY
IS SHOWING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EVEN SOME LEE
ENHANCEMENT. LEANING TOWARDS THE FOG SCENARIO BASED ON TODAY'S
TREND WITH FOG LINGERING ALL DAY IN SPOTS AND THE IMPRESSIVE
WARMING ALOFT. CLOUDS MAY THICKEN ENOUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING TO
BREAK UP THE FOG IN THE WEST EARLIER BUT IT COULD CONTINUE FURTHER
EAST. MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT I
DIDN'T CHANGE OUR SLIGHT CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING OR CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WEST.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AFTER MONDAY.
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SPLIT THE
TROUGH AND HAS MUCH LESS PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THAN THE GFS. THE
GFS SWINGS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH INTO THE REGION WITH A
DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP FOR THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THEN SCATTERED PRECIP IN THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING. THE CANADIAN MODEL SIDES WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. THE 06Z
NAM SIDES WITH THE GFS SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY. WILL
KEEP THE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AND MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ONCE THIS TROUGH EXITS THE WEATHER
PATTERN QUICKLY GOES TO A MOIST WEST NORTHWEST FLOW FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW RETURNING TO THE WESTERN MTS. THEN THE
FLOW BACKS TO THE SW WED AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. AND THEN HEADS TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THURSDAY. GFS SEEMS TOO FAST WITH ITS TROUGH SPEED WHILE THE ECMWF
IS DIGGING A SHARPER TROUGH...WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER IDEA
THIS SEASON. SO THE WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH YEARS END IN
THE WEST WHILE THE EAST STAYS MAINLY DRY NEXT MON THROUGH WED. THE
EAST MAY SEE SOME PRECIP NEXT THURS. AS FOR TEMPS...A MILD DAY ON
SUNDAY THEN COLDER FOR MONDAY...SEASONAL HIGHS AND LOWS NEXT TUE
THROUGH THURS.

AVIATION...
A STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENSUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PROPENSITY FOR OCCASIONAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. FOR THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON A PATCHY LOW DECK OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 3 AND 4K
AGL OVERLAYING ANOTHER LOWER CLOUD DECK AT AROUND 1K WEST OF THE
DIVIDE WILL AFFECT KJAC...KRKS AND KAFO. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND EXIT THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR INCLUDING
KCPR AND THE BIG HORN MTNS. THESE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MTN OBSCURATIONS. AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL REFORM THIS EVENING AND EXPAND AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. THE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT KRKS...KBPI...KPNA AND KJAC. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE
WIND RIVER BASIN AND BIG HORN BASIN THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. THE FOG IN THESE
BASINS WILL BE CONCENTRATED PRIMARILY ALONG THE BIG HORN RIVER AND
THE VICINITY OF BOYSEN RESERVOIR. THIS PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT THE
VICINITIES OF KWRL AND KRIW. AFTER THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. A WEST SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF
10 TO 15 MPH FROM KRKS TO KCPR WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH FROM THE RED DESERT TO KCPR.

FIRE WEATHER...
STEEP BASIN AND VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. SOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BLOW AT TIMES FROM THE RED DESERT TO CASPER
AND EAST SLOPE OF THE CENTRAL WYOMING MOUNTAINS.

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 221951
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
151 PM CST WED DEC 22 2010

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME. THE HIGH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER. MAIN QUESTIONS ARE
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND EFFECTS ON
TEMPERATURES AND FOG.

DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST HELPED BRING
PARTIAL CLEARING IN SPOTS EARLIER TODAY. PARTIAL CLOUDINESS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKE...AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO
THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL...DROPPING INTO THE
10 TO 15 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT RANGE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS WOULD LIMIT
FOG POTENTIAL TO LOW LYING AREAS...DESPITE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS INLAND.

ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL. AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ON NAM/GFS/RUC SHOWING A THIN SATURATED LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE DEVELOPING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILDER IF THIS
OCCURS.

THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST. FOR NOW...THINK THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...AND WILL LEAVE
OUT FOG MENTION WITH THE DRIER AIR. EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

NAM KEEPS LOW STRATUS AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH GFS MIXING OUT
THIS LAYER. WILL KEEP PARTLY SUNNY SKIES GOING FOR THURSDAY...WITH
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
KEPT HIGHS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

.FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS HAVE ONE SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS...WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

MAIN WEATHER PRODUCE WILL BE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE...ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. NAM LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP AND WEAK ISOTHERMAL
LAYER EXISTS ABOVE 900 THROUGH 775 MB. NAM SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO
FAIRLY DRY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS.

PREFER THE GFS/ECMWF/CRAS WHICH BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS AT LEAST
THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GFS/ECMWF HAS MORE MOISTURE WITH THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...ENOUGH FOR A DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. LAKE
POTENTIAL IS GREATER MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES
EXTEND TO 800 MB ON THE GFS ALONG WITH A FAIRLY SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS. NAM HAS A LOWER INVERSION WITH THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ONLY EXTENDING TO 900 MB.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AREA.
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IN THE COLDER NORTH/NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH AND CLOSES OFF. MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION...BUT MAIN DIFFERENCES MATTER MOST TO
AREAS TO OUR EAST. OVER OUR AREA COLD NORTH FLOW DEVELOPS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS MINNESOTA AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO 750 MB OFF THE
GFS SOUNDINGS AND LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EASTERN U.S. AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...LOWERING THE INVERSION LEVEL AND ENDING
THE LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

UPPER FLOW BECOME MORE ZONAL. AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. HOWEVER ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY AS LARGE
HIGH CUTS OFF ANY GULF MOISTURE. THEREFORE PREFER THE DRIER 00Z
ECMWF OVER THE GFS AT THIS TIME. GFS BRINGS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT.

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING ACROSS
TAF SITES...AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO
KMSN AND KUES BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z THURSDAY...AND LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS TO KMKE AND KENW.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR FOG AND IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AT ALL
SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z THURSDAY...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

.MARINE...

LOCAL WEB CAMERAS INDICATING THAT WAVE ACTION HAS SUBSIDED SOMEWHAT
FROM EARLIER TODAY. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...AS
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THUS...WILL ALLOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 21Z.

BRISK NORTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS...AND A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ643>646.

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...08/WOOD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KOHX 170535
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1135 PM CST THU DEC 16 2010

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION FORECAST 17/06Z

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT NOW WELL EAST OF PLATEAU WITH LOW CLOUDS BACK TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH IFR CONDITIONS FROM THE PLATEAU TO THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. FREEZING FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE PLATEAU WITH
CSV DOWN TO 1/4SM IN FZFG AT THIS TIME. DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF IMPROVEMENT AT CSV UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. WITH FREEZING FOG
ALONG THE PLATEAU EXPECT BLACK ICE TO FORM IN THIS AREA ON ROADWAYS.
EXPECT CSV TO STAY IFR GOOD PART OF THE MORING BUT GO MVFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND VFR TOWARDS SUNSET ON FRIDAY. AS FOR BNA FEEL
MVFR WILL HOLD IN GENERAL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT AM
SEEING HOLDS IN LOW DECK TO OUR WEST AT THIS TIME AND IT IS POSSIBLE
WHERE SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING TAKES PLACE FOG WILL FORM QUICKLY
AND LOWER VSBYS DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH BLACK ICE FORMING ON
ROAD SURFACES. BNA SHOULD GO VFR AFTER SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON BNA TERMINAL FORECAST FIRST 6 HOURS.

LOOKING AT CRAS AND THE MOISTURE DEEPENING IN THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS BELIEVE FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

BOYD

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CST THU DEC 16 2010/

UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND
THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO BE HERE ALL NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES.
PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOWING UP ON THE PLATEAU AS WELL AS PATCHY DRIZZLE.
AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT...EXPECTED DRIZZLE MAY FREEZE.
WILL ADD PATCHY FOG/FZDZ TO EAST. LEAVE REMAINING AS IS FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST THU DEC 16 2010/

UPDATE...FOR 17/00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING DOWN ALONG NORTHEAST CORNER OF ALABAMA
NEAR SCOTTSBORO THEN UP JUST WEST OF CHATTANOOGA THEN EXTENDS THROUGH
EASTERN TENNESSEE NEAR KNOXVILLE. POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS (IFR) BEHIND
THE FRONT ALL THE WAY BACK ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VSBYS. ALTHOUGH OHX DOPPLER IS PPINE
EXPECT LIGHT DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AT BNA AND
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AT CSV. WITH FOG CONTINUING
ALONG WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE WE COULD SEE SOME BLACK ICE CONDITONS
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS DIP BELOW FREEZING AND INTO THE MIDDLE 20S.

WOULD NOT EXPECT MVFR AT BNA UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY
AND NOT AT CSV UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. CRAS IS HINTING AT A VERY
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP EVENT FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS MID STATE.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST THU DEC 16 2010/

SHORT TERM (THRU SUN)...
TNGT...LINGERING MOISTURE AND H8 TEMPS AROUND 0 C COULD GENERATE
A FEW FLURRIES/PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS EVENING IN THE NORTH. MAINLY A
CLOUDY SKY W/LOWS MID-UPR 20S.

SFC HIGH PRES ACR W CANADA-CNTL PLAINS WL CONTINUE TO FEED COLD
AIR INTO MID TN FRI. HIGHER UP...MODELS SHIFT A H5 S/W TROF OVR
THE REGION FRI NGT-SAT WITH A CHANCE OF PCPN. MOISTURE LIMITED
W/CHC SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES AT THIS POINT.

SFC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE AS POLAR JET DROPS SOUTH SAT. HIGHS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 30S THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
WARMER MON AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SFC LOW
MOVES INTO THE REGION MON NGT-TUE W/CHC OF RAIN. COULD BE A RAIN
SNOW MIX NORTH NEAR THE KY LINE. COLDER AIR RUSHES IN AS MOISTURE
DEPARTS TUE AFTERNOON.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

----------------------------------------------------------------------
FXUS64 KOHX 170013
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
613 PM CST THU DEC 16 2010

.UPDATE...FOR 17/00Z AVIATION FORECAST

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING DOWN ALONG NORTHEAST CORNER OF ALABAMA
NEAR SCOTTSBORO THEN UP JUST WEST OF CHATTANOOGA THEN EXTENDS THROUGH
EASTERN TENNESSEE NEAR KNOXVILLE. POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS (IFR) BEHIND
THE FRONT ALL THE WAY BACK ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VSBYS. ALTHOUGH OHX DOPPLER IS PPINE
EXPECT LIGHT DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AT BNA AND
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AT CSV. WITH FOG CONTINUING
ALONG WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE WE COULD SEE SOME BLACK ICE CONDITONS
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS DIP BELOW FREEZING AND INTO THE MIDDLE 20S.

WOULD NOT EXPECT MVFR AT BNA UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY
AND NOT AT CSV UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. CRAS IS HINTING AT A VERY
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP EVENT FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS MID STATE.

BOYD

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST THU DEC 16 2010/

SHORT TERM (THRU SUN)...
TNGT...LINGERING MOISTURE AND H8 TEMPS AROUND 0 C COULD GENERATE
A FEW FLURRIES/PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS EVENING IN THE NORTH. MAINLY A
CLOUDY SKY W/LOWS MID-UPR 20S.

SFC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE AS POLAR JET DROPS SOUTH SAT. HIGHS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 30S THIS WEEKEND.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 150823
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
223 AM CST WED DEC 15 2010

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.

AT 300 MB ONE JET MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. MOVES OFF...AS A SECOND PUSHES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PLACES SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MORE OR LESS IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF DEPARTING JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF
APPROACHING JET MAX. RESULTANT UPPER DIVERGENCE...COMBINES WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW. ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY WITH MODERATE 700 MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. SATURATION OCCURS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 2 G/KG OF MOISTURE AT 700 MB
TONIGHT...WITH ALMOST 3 G/KG IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN QPF...BUT GFS SPREADS LIGHT
QPF A BIT FARTHER NORTHEAST. CRAS MODEL IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH OF
THE OTHER MODELS IN ITS MAX QPF...AND A BIT SLOWER.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW OVER
LAFAYETTE COUNTY WHERE A DECENT CHANCE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LINGER THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

FORCING TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS STRONGER WAVE PULLS AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH WEAKER WAVE WASHING OUT AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA. STILL ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT UP TO
ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL WIND DOWN DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S...WILL
FEEL ON THE MILD SIDE COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS AND UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON FRIDAY...MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE
CANADIAN MODEL STILL SPITTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY AS MOISTURE VERY SHALLOW ON GFS SOUNDINGS. SRN WI WILL
THEN BE CAUGHT BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE ON SATURDAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN AS THE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH...WITH HIGHS A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM

MODELS ALL SHOWING GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A WAVE OR TWO SWINGING THROUGH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. STILL POOR AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AS TO
TIMING/STRENGTH/LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...SO JUST HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MONDAY. NOT CURRENTLY SEEING
ANY FEATURES WARRANTING POPS FOR TUESDAY. THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES
ARE QUESTIONABLE...SEEMS REASONABLE THAT PERSISTENT TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL KEEP MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...

THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY AT
MADISON AND KENOSHA. IFR CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY IN AREAS WEST AND
SOUTH OF MADISON TONIGHT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR WIZ067.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...DDV/07
AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ/06

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 290850
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
250 AM CST MON NOV 29 2010

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

500MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS MOVES EAST AND BECOMES
MORE NEGATIVE TILT THIS EVENING AS STRONG UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS PUTS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE STRONGER UPPER DIVERGENCE EARLY THIS EVENING.

STRONG 850 MB UPPER JET BECOMES MORE FOCUSED WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME TIME. AS A RESULT
STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING WITH UP TO
15 MICROBARS/SEC OF UPWARD MOTION AT 700 MB.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO OVER 0.5 INCH BY THIS EVENING...AND
APPROACHES 1 INCH IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. UNTIL THEN RATHER DRY LOW/MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CIRRUS THIS MORNING...THEN WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH EXPECT A RAPID SATURATION
AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT SWEEPING ACROSS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME ELEVATED
CAPE OF 80 J/KG BUT THIS IS ABOVE 650 MB THIS EVENING. SPC GENERAL
THUNDER IS JUST TO THE SOUTH...SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE ANY THUNDER
POSSIBILITIES OUT.

MID LEVEL DRY WEDGE OF AIR ROTATES AROUND UPPER LOW INTO SRN WI
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CRAS IR FORECAST SHOWS THIS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 09Z. AS THE MID LEVEL DRYING ABOVE
800MB OCCURS...EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT COOLS MID/UPPER LAYERS BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION LIQUID.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

COLD FRONT WILL MARCH WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY
MORNING. BULK OF MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SO MUCH OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. STILL...SHOULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE
FRONT. MODELS SWING UPPER WAVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY...SO LINGERED
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT TOWARD THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NW WI. SECONDARY UPPER WAVE SWINGS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SO LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING...WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND SECONDARY UPPER WAVE WILL LIKELY
CONFINE HIGHS TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...BUT BREEZY
WEST WINDS WILL COMBAT ANY COMFORT FROM THE SUNSHINE...WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS SHOWING SLIGHTLY MODERATING 925 MB TEMPS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT SFC TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNDER PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL AT LEAST MAKE THINGS MORE
TOLERABLE THAN ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

MODELS ADVERTISING A SYSTEM FOR LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. STILL NOT MUCH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODELS...BUT
ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW
TRACK...THOUGH STILL BOUNCING AROUND A BIT. LATEST ECMWF RUN
RETURNED TO IDEAL TRACK OVER ILLINOIS...WITH ALL SNOW FOR SRN
WI..WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKENING WAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH.
THOUGH DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR...THIS SYSTEM STILL BEARS WATCHING AS
THE ECMWF KEEPS HINTING AT OUR FIRST SNOW EVENT.

CURRENTLY NOT SEEING MUCH FOR SUNDAY...SO WENT WITH DRY FORECAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL RUN A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS ATMOSPHERE IS
INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY. MAIN CONCERN IS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
2 THSD FT WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND 40
KNOTS OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS ARE
WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE NEAR THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS LOW
LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AS LOW OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND INTENSIFIES. MOISTURE AND UPWARD MOTION
INCREASE AND EXPECT RAPID SATURATION AND A QUICK PROGRESSION TO MVFR
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THEN IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY EVENING IN RAIN/FOG/STRATUS.

.MARINE...
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW EXITING THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
INTENSIFY TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING WINDS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS MAY APPROACH
GALE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WITH WARMER SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AS JUST ENOUGH STABILITY TO PREVENT MIXING OF
GALE WINDS TO THE SURFACE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW/TROUGH. HOWEVER THERE
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR WAVES TO SUBSIDE BEFORE POST FRONTAL
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN AGAIN WITH INCREASING
WINDS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV/07
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ/06

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KEKA 240703
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1113 PM PST TUE NOV 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS COLD
CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO FRI BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
&&

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN ZONE
001.

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE HOW COLD
TEMPS WILL FALL AS A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HI CLOUDS ADVECTING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND SIMPLE INTERPOLATION ADVECTS THESE CLOUDS
OVER NW CA BY AROUND 08Z. MODELS AND CRAS IMAGERY SUPPORT THIS WITH
INCREASING 1000-500MB RH AND SKY COVER ALONG THE COAST BY 06Z. THE
KEY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND THE COOLING AHEAD OF IT/S
ARRIVAL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING SKY COVER...ELECTED TO
MAINTAIN CURRENT HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAINLY OVER DEL NORTE
COUNTY WED MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO FRI AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE PAC NW. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF AK FRI WITH PRECIP CHCS INCREASING HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN AS MAJORITY OF
PRECIP ENDS WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4500 FT FRI DROPPING TO 2000 FT
SAT. TROUGH SHIFTS E AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
SUN INTO MON BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE W COAST NEXT
TUE. &&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH 02Z.
VALLEY FOG MAY INHIBIT VSBYS...WITH A HINT OF MVFR FOG AT KUKI AFT
09Z. FROST WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT...EVEN AT COASTAL SITES.
JCA
&&

.MARINE...NW SWELL OF 10-12 FT AT 11 SEC WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY
OVERNIGHT. SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE SWELL FALLS BELOW 8
FT BY WED AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THU BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS WILL RAMP
UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR. ANOTHER
LARGE SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. JCA
&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST WED FOR
CAZ001-002. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY PZZ450-470-475. &&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KEKA 232213
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
213 PM PST TUE NOV 23 2010

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE HOW COLD
TEMPS WILL FALL AS A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. IR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HI CLOUDS ADVECTING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND SIMPLE INTERPOLATION ADVECTS
THESE CLOUDS OVER NW CA BY AROUND 08Z. MODELS AND CRAS IMAGERY SUPPORT
THIS WITH INCREASING 1000-500MB RH AND SKY COVER ALONG THE COAST
BY 06Z. THE KEY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND THE
COOLING AHEAD OF IT/S ARRIVAL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING
SKY COVER...ELECTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
MAINLY OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY WED MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL INTO FRI AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE PAC
NW. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF AK FRI WITH
PRECIP CHCS INCREASING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...COLD
AIR WILL MOVE IN AS MAJORITY OF PRECIP ENDS WITH SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 4500 FT FRI DROPPING TO 2000 FT SAT. TROUGH SHIFTS E AND A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUN INTO MON BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE W COAST NEXT TUE. &&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST WED FOR CAZ001-002.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY PZZ450-470-475.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 151748
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1148 AM CST MON NOV 15 2010

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS SHEAR ZONE GETS
CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENS OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL DROP INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
BE MAINLY A CLOUD ISSUE WITH MID LEVELS MOISTENING SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND MOST QPF WOULD STAY WELL TO THE
SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. MOST MODELS PAINT A HUNDREDTH OR SO OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT CRAS MODEL IS DRY. BOTH NAM AND
GFS MOS POPS ARE LOW...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES AT MOST OVER THE FAR
WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD...IN THE LOWER 50S...WITH THE 925MB
TEMPS AROUND 6C AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION
MIXING OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE KENTUCKY REGION AND MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. MEANWHILE SECOND SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY...REACHING KENTUCKY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST
U.S. A SECOND LOW MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE . 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRING A HUNDREDTH OR SO ACROSS
THE FORECAST REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING
ALMOST 0.20 INCHES TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE OF A SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA/OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MAINLY UPPER MOISTURE WITH LIMITED UPWARD
MOTION. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD BE SNOW...BUT STILL A RATHER WARM
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. TOP DOWN METHOD WOULD INDICATE MORE LIQUID
IF ONLY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES INTO PLAY. CRAS MODEL IS DRY
WITH NAM ONLY SHOWING LIGHT QPF MAINLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE POSSIBLY
MAINLY DUE TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHEAST WINDS. EVEN SO POPS
WOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND ZONAL FLOW OCCURRS
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING WSW ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE U.S./CANADAIN BORDER AREA THURSDAY. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
THE QPF WELL TO OUR NORTH. A TRAILING DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY,..WHILE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS WARM AIR ADVECTION
BACK WITH A STRONGER SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 06Z DGEX
IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX SEEM
BETTER SINCE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO BRING THE COLD AIR TOO FAR SOUTH
WITH A WSW UPPER FLOW.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP WITH A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. MAIN PROBLEM IS MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES PUSHING NORTHEAST IN THE UPPER JET.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY THICKNESS VALUES ARE SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN
BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THICKNESS INDICATES
RAIN...SO LOW TO MEDIUM POPS SEEM REASONABLE AND MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...08/WWOD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 281714
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1214 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2010

.SHORT TERM...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD
HOLDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS 250 MB UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS
SOMEWHAT RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AND WEAK UPWARD 700 MB
OMEGA. AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITS AND 500 MB VORTICITY MAX
EXITS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR THIS EVENING

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE...SO WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE. GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF
MADISON LATE TONIGHT...BUT STILL SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL RH AND 20
KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS AT MILWAUKEE AT AROUND 500 FEET. WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING OFF TO THE UPPER TEENS WEST TO LOWER TO MID 20S
EAST...EXPECT MID 20 LOWS OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH LOWS JUST BELOW FREEZING AT MILWAUKEE.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES
WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. 850 MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS FRIDAY WHILE MAIN 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT. 40 KNOT SOUTHWEST 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER RH
IS VERY DRY TO BEGIN WITH...AND RH AT 700 AND 850 REMAIN BELOW 50
PCT. AS A RESULT ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS AT BEST.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF WEAKER WITH THIS TROUGH. UKMET ALSO TRENDING TOWARD
THE WEAKER 00Z ECMWF. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST...A TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MAIN PROBLEM IS STRENGTH OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WITH THE GFS AND NAM COLDER WHILE THE ECMWF WITH THE
WEAKER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOT AS COLD. UKMET IS SOMEWHAT IN
BETWEEN...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS AND WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY FORECAST BASED ON THE LOW RH.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING PRECIP TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE
JET MOVING EAST ACROSS ILLINOIS. 00Z ECMWF IS QUICKER AND
STRONGER THAN 12Z GFS...BUT 12Z UKMET IS SIMILAR TO THE 00Z
ECMWF. CRAS MODEL IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF BUT JUST A BIT
WEAKER. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN...WITH SMALL POPS IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. 12Z GFS CONTINUES THE TREND ON
DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW NEAR ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA ON
WEDNESDAY....WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN U.S. WITH A SMALLER UPPER LOW
FARTHER SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.

06Z DGEX IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. MAIN FORECAST DIFFERENCE
WILL BE COLDER TEMPERATURES OFF THE ECMWF AND SOME PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY DUE TO A STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE RETURNING
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND HIGHER MOISTURE. WILL USE A CONSENSUS AND
TREND TOWARD DRY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM

06Z DGEX IS CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE GFS KEEPING AN
UPPER LOW NEAR LOUISIANA. EITHER WAY OUR AREA REMAINS DRY...BUT GFS
IS WARMER DUE TO A WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. 06Z DEX IS ACTUALLY
WARMER THAN THE ECMWF...DESPITE A MORE SIMILAR TROUGH OVER THE
EAST.

AGAIN CONSENSUS APPEARS THE BEST WAY TO GO.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...08/WOOD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMPX 040832
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
332 AM CDT MON OCT 4 2010

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE GREAT LAKES HIGH REMAINS MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE
REGION TODAY INTO TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...PERHAPS NOT AS WARM AS MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS
INDICATE. COOL START WILL YIELD DRY AIR AND QUICK RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME DOWNSLOPE AFFECT
TO AREAS ON THE LEE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THIS CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY...BUT GRADIENT DOES INCREASE SOME AS NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF AGAIN
TO THE EAST AS WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE FROM THE COOL/DRY BNDRY LAYER
AGAIN. THE WEST CWA MAY NOT SO MUCH...WITH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED.

MODEL TRENDS ARE INDICATING FRONT TO MOVE IN A BIT FASTER...COMING
INTO THE NW LATE TUE NIGHT AND EXITING THE CWA BY WED AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT DOES APPEAR TO BE A STRONG WAVE
ASSOCIATED. 00Z CRAS FCST WV IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG DRYING BEHIND
WAVE AND THIS WAS THE IMPETUS FOR COLLAB CHANGES MADE TO DEWPTS
FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE THEM DROP OFF INTO THE
UPPER 30S AT LEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...BEHIND THE FRONT.

ONLY BRIEF COOLING ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH HEIGHTS
RISING AGAIN AHEAD OF SOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF LOW. TIMING OF THIS
IN QUESTION IS THE LONG RANGE. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE
INDICATING THAT IT COULD AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

THE CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HRS.
ONLY A FEW MINOR PROBLEMS WITH FG/BR FOR EAU IN THE MORNING DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIVER AND LAKE NEAR THE AIRPORT. WNDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE S/SE OVERNIGHT AND THRU TOMORROW WITH A FEW GUSTS
OF 20 TO 22 KTS AT RWF/AXN DURING LATE MORNING/AFTN.

MSP...SE WNDS ARND 7 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE S/SW MONDAY
MORNING AND INCREASE TO ARND 11-13 KTS. A FEW GUSTS OF 16 TO 20
KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. ..JLT..

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

DWE/JPR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KOHX 290501 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1201 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY S ACROSS MID STATE AT THIS TIME...BUT ONLY
GENERATING A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO AREA
AS LOW CONTINUES DRIFTING SLOWLY S INTO AL LATE TONIGHT AND WED. SOME
FOG POSSIBLE AT CSV LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED. CRAS MODEL FORECAST
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWARD MOVING
TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER SE FL LATE WED AND WED NIGHT MAY MOVE NW INTO
E TN WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING CSV AREA.
BNA...VFR THROUGHOUT PERIOD.
CSV...MVFR FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010/

UPDATE...
LIGHTER B/L WINDS TNGT W/PATCHY FOG. BEST COVERAGE OF FOG SHOULD
BE IN THE PLAT/NEAR BODIES OF WATER. LOW TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 40S.
NO FROST YET BUT IT WON'T BE LONG. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010/

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS STILL LINGER AS THE UPPER TROUGH
HAS YET TO PASS THROUGH THE MID STATE. STILL, TEMPERATURES ARE
NOTICEABLY COOLER TODAY FOLLOWING A CHILLY MORNING.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE CLEARS OUT, LOOK FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW TO SET UP
ALOFT AS A SURFACE RIDGE SITS TO OUR WEST, KEEPING US UNDER A
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND HOLDING OUR
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.

EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO SWING THROUGH THE MID STATE ON SUNDAY,
BRINGING SOME CLOUDS, BUT NO PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE
DRY ACROSS THE MID STATE, AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ISN'T EXPECTED TO
FINALLY SWING THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
STEIGERWALDT

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KRIW 232011
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
211 PM MDT THU SEP 23 2010

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
SYSTEM LAST NIGHT BROUGHT MEASURABLE PCPN TO MOST OF THE AREA WITH
SOME SITES REPORTING AS MUCH AS .25 TO .40. THE AREA AROUND KAYCEE
AND ELKHORN RAWS REPORTED THE MOST WITH AROUND .40 INCHES. LOW
CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED MUCH OF THE DAY IN JOHNSON...WEST OF THP AND
IN THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE BIG HORN BASIN. ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER
THE MTN RANGES TO ALLOW MODERATE CU AND PC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
WIND SPEEDS IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS. WEAK MTN WAVE SIGNATURE SHOWING
UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPE OF THE ABSAROKA MTNS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z
FRIDAY. LCL WRF IS GENERATING SOME 30-35KT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND 15-20 KTS BETWEEN CODY AND CLARK. INCREASED
THE WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA TO ADJUST FOR THIS. RIDGE AXIS PASSES
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND JET NOSES INTO WRN MT WHICH IS USUALLY A
GOOD SET-UP FOR A SOME MTN WAVE ACTION. CRAS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING
SOME LEE ENHANCEMENT IN OUR FAVORED AREA UP THERE SO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER UP THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNLESS WE CAN SQUEEZE OUT A LATE DAY SHOWER FROM THE
BEARTOOTH OVER TO THE NRN BIG HORNS. RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
WEEKEND FOR WARMING TEMPS AND LOWERING AFTERNOON RH'S. WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT MIN RH'S WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND EAST SLOPE OF THE MTN RANGES. DRY ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE DIURNAL SWINGS OF AT LEAST
40 TO 50 DEGREES. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DROPS DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS WEAKER THAN EARLIER RUNS INDICATED SO CHANCE OF LOW
CLOUDS HAS DIMINISHED. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH DAY WITH MANY
LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S BY SUNDAY WITH UPPER 50S
AND 60S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
FINAL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

MEDIUM-RANGE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
BETWEEN 140-150W. SHORTWAVES TIMED TO TOP RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK SHALLOW BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTS PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT RESPECTIVELY. THESE COLD FRONTS WILL ONLY RESULT IN A
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OTHERWISE A VERY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL...CLOSE
TO RECORD HIGHS BUT LIKELY TO STAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT...AIRMASS NOT COMPLETELY MIXING OUT DURING
THE SHORTER DAYS. CLEAR SKIES...A DRY AIRMASS AND LONGER NIGHTS
WILL ALSO RESULT IN LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES NEAR 40F. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS HOLD ON TO THIS STRONG RIDGE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND
IN OCTOBER WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING MORE AMPLITUDE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICA OR A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN THAT WILL
CONTINUE SEVERAL DAYS BEYOND.

AVIATION...
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING COOLER...DRY AND STABLE AIR
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. WITH CLEARING AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SOME STRATUS AND MIST IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
LOW LYING AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURRED YESTERDAY THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE LOCALIZED WITH LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WITH LOW CEILINGS AND MIST IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST
WITH LOCAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS. BY MID MORNING CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR WITH BREEZY AREAS OF WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE SOUTH FROM KRKS TO
KCPR.

FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY FORECAST WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOST
LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A PASSING DISTURBANCE THAT
BRUSHES THE FAR NORTH WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A HIGH MOUNTAIN
SHOWER LATE FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WITH MIN RH'S DROPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MANY
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS FRIDAY...DRYING FURTHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BIG DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE DRY AIRMASS ALLOWS FOR 40 TO 50 DEGREE
DIURNAL SWINGS. THERE WILL BE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE CODY
FOOTHILLS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z FRIDAY AND SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM RKS TO CPR AGAIN FRIDAY.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KRIW 222030
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
230 PM MDT WED SEP 22 2010

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SAGGED SOUTH OVERNIGHT HAD A STRONGER PUNCH
THAN EXPECTED WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS ALL OF THE
BIG HORN BASIN OVER TO JOHNSON COUNTY. IN FACT...CODY WAS STILL
STRUGGLING TO HIT 50...48 DEGREES...AT 215 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE A BUSY EVENING AS APPROACHING TROUGH AND DYNAMICS
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BIG
PORTION OF THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING THE PAST FEW
HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH WITH MOST OF THEM WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE INTO SWRN WYO DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME IS AIMED JUST EAST OF THE AREA BUT SHORTWAVE IS
SEEN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ON TOP OF THIS PLUME OVER WRN CO AND ERN
UT. WITH INCREASING JET SUPPORT AND QG FORCING...THIS MAY WELL
TURN INTO A BAROCLINIC LEAF AS INDICATED BY THE CRAS IMAGERY. STLT
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME TRAPPED MTN WAVES OVER THE RED DESERT
INDICATIVE OF INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AS OUR JET STREAK LIFTS NE
OVHD. BAROCLINIC LEAF WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AROUND THE WIND RIVER BASIN UP INTO THE SRN
BIG HORN BASIN AND OVER TO THE SERN ABASAROKAS WHERE COMBINATION
OF QG FORCING...FRONTAL FORCING AND MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ALL ADD
UP TO HIGH POPS. INCREASED POPS OVER THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND ALL
OF THE CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM ARE
SHOWING THE H7 LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SERN AND CNTRAL
FREMONT THIS EVENING. ODDS OF PCPN WILL INCREASE FURTHER NE AS THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FORCING LIFTS NE LATER TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY LINGER IN THE FAR N AND ERN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY THE NERN ZONES. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE FAR
NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BUT MAINLY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER IN THE FAR NRN
MTNS. COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY WITH ENOUGH PUNCH TO PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN BYG
AND CPR SATURDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A WARMUP
AS HEIGHTS BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND AND H7 TEMPS RISE ABOVE 10C IN
THE WRN HALF.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
FINAL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

MEDIUM-RANGE GLOBAL MODELS IN OVERALL BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
IN DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LATEST
ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON PROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE NEXT WEEK...MOVING
TOWARD GFS SOLUTION THOUGH THE GFS OPS AND GEFS MEAN STILL REMAIN
FURTHER WEST. ALL MODELS DEPICT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER TOP OF RIDGE
OVER CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY DRIVING A WEAK...SHALLOW COLD FRONT SOUTH
EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. THE OVERALL PICTURE WILL BE
TEMPERATURES 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WIND NOT QUITE IN RECORD HIGH TERRITORY.
ALSO...CLEAR (AND LONGER) NIGHTS AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NEAR 40F.

AVIATION...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH TOPOGRAPHY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING...AND WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...BECOMING WIDESPREAD IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND MORE SCATTERED OVER THE BASINS AND VALLEYS THIS
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR. MOST VALLEYS AND BASINS WILL DEVELOP MVFR
CEILINGS WITH LOWER VISIBILITY IN PRECIPITATION. THROUGH THE NIGHT
AFTER THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH MIST WILL BE ENCOUNTERED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
ALL OF THE TAF SIGHTS WILL BE IMPACTED WITH LOWER CLOUDS...
PRECIPITATION AND AT LEAST MIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING STABILITY. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE EAST WITH SOME
OBSCURATIONS CONTINUING. THE TAF LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
VFR BY LATE MORNING 16Z TO 18Z.

FIRE WEATHER...
A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND EASTERN PART OF THE
DISTRICT. THE AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ONLY A PASSING DISTURBANCE BRUSHING FAR NORTHERN WYOMING LATE FRIDAY.
THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS TO THE FAR NORTH ALONG WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTH WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING
BETWEEN BUFFALO AND CASPER.

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KRIW 122127
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
327 PM MDT SUN SEP 12 2010

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS FLAT RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVHD.
SUBTROPICAL CIRRUS BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE RED DESERT AS
THE CRAS IMAGERY WAS INDICATING YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW
CU OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. WEAK DISTURBANCE...AREA OF MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ENE TOWARDS NW WYOMING ON MONDAY WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE FAR NW LATE MONDAY. THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE MILD TO WARM AND QUITE DRY BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT WINDS. TROUGH APPROACHING NRN CA IS STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GFS IS A LITTLE
FASTER MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE
NAM BEING AT LEAST 6 HOURS SLOWER. FORECAST IS FOLLOWING THE
SLOWER SOLUTION FOR NOW. IT LOOKS LIKE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI'S AND INCREASE PW'S FROM
.60 TO .80 WILL BRING AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MTN STORMS. 18Z NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER YET WITH PCPN
BACK INTO THE WIND RIVER BASIN INTO EARLY WED AFTN. SOUNDINGS SHOW
INSTABILITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE 300-500 J/KG
RANGE WITH WEDNESDAY BEGINNING TO STABILIZE BUT PW'S HOLD IN THE
.60 TO .80 RANGE. TEMPS SHOULD COOL AT LEAST 8 TO 12 DEGREES EAST
OF THE DIVIDE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A REX BLOCK WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ALASKA WEDNESDAY AND COULD LAST MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH THE GFS FASTER IN BREAKING IT DOWN. AT THE SAME TIME
MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG CLOSED LOW AFFECTING CENTRAL
CANADA/SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOSED
LOW...DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF SENDS A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS A MUCH WEAKER COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF SENDS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS ITS PLACEMENT OF THE
HUDSON CLOSED LOW IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH
NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE REX
BLOCK IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW AND
THEIR INTERACTION WITH SURFACE COLD FRONTS COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE A BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE
LOCATED. DURING THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE HINTING AT DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING
REX BLOCK...WITH A FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE POSSIBLY BEING PUSHED
INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT
KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW. HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MEX MOS
GUIDANCE...WITH A TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
DIVIDE DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONTS IN THE
ECMWF SOLUTION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS OCCUR
IN NORTHWEST WYOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO
18 MPH WILL BLOW FROM EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTY TO KCPR MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL CONTINUE VERY DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH OCCASIONAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. MINIMUM RH'S
WILL CONTINUE IN THE TEENS TO AS LOW AS AROUND 10 PERCENT.
ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY OVER ALL OF THE WEST...GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN DRIER
CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 111708
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1208 PM CDT SAT SEP 11 2010

.SHORT TERM...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE FAR EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH HAS ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME DRIZZLE...MAINLY EAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION AROUND 6
THSD FT. RUC SOUNDINGS AT MILWAUKEE SHOW INVERSION LOWERING TO
AROUND 35 HUNDRED FT BY EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BE SLOW TO
CLEAR EAST...BUT DIMINISHING CLOUDS SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
EARLY EVENING. LATER TONIGHT LIMITING FACTOR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE SURFACE GRADIENT PREVENTING WINDS FROM DECOUPLING TOO
MUCH.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEY AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING DRY PLEASANT WEATHER SUNDAY.

A MORE ZONAL/WNW JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. SETS IN
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE
SUPERIOR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS
WISCONSIN. 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE POKES INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH MODERATE AMOUNT OF UPWARD MOTION AT 700 MB. NAM ALSO
SHOWS A WSW LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 KNOTS MOVING ACROSS THE
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER AREA. NAM ALSO SHOWS ALMOST 1000 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE. ONLY NEGATIVE IS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ENOUGH
MOISTURE ABOVE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SO WILL RAISE POPS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOT HAS HIGH AS NAM MOS. THIS IS BECAUSE BOTH 12Z GFS
AND 12Z CRAS ARE DRY...WITH 00Z ECMWF KEEPING PRECIP JUST TO OUR
EAST.

THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY...SO WILL GO DRY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ZONAL UPPER JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND
SOUTHERN CANADA.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS.

GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IS STARTING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER
AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. ECMWF IS
A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS.

ECMWF HAS A STRONGER TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO IOWA...WITH
GFS WEAKER AND A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS. SINCE ECMWF HAS TRENDED
MORE TOWARD THE GFS IN THIS TIME FRAME...A PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TO
THE GFS.

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

BOTH MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE
WISCONSIN AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS A MORE BROAD TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING TWO MORE DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES. BOTH MODELS BRING A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS A TROUGH INTO
WISCONSIN FRIDAY...WHILE GFS IS SLOWER AND WEAKER.

AGAIN AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS...AS THE ECMWF 500 MB
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA APPEARS TOO NOISY.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

BOTH 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
LAKE SUPERIOR AREA.

SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS ACROSS WISCONSIN.

.AVIATION...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST WI. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY MIDDAY AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS HANGING AROUND AT MKE AND ENW
UNTIL 00Z THIS EVENING UNTIL THE TROUGH FINALLY PASSES.

IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI...INCLUDING MSN...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD
ERODES AWAY ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE NW AFTER 21Z AND MAY GUST TO 20KT FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE
00Z. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AT THE SFC OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS OF 22KT
AROUND 1000FT WILL KEEP JUST ENOUGH MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUN...BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS.

.MARINE...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1PM. PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SW WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MI SUN NGT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ643>646.

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...13/MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KOHX 082357
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
657 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010

.UPDATE...FOR 09/00Z AVIATION FORECAST

.AVIATION...
HAND ANALYZED SURFACE COOL FRONT RIGHT ON OUR DOORSTEPS HERE AT
OHX AT 08/23Z. BASE VELOCITY SHOWING VERY LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WITH
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST PER 64 DEWPOINT AT BNA
AT 23Z WHILE BWG HAD A 53 AND PAH A 56. KY MESONET SHOWING DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 40S WEST OF I65. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
INTO MID STATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DO SO ON THURSDAY.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM REMNANTS OF HERMINE IN
CENTRAL PLAINS IS WORKING INTO DRIER AIRMASS. EXPECT MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT BECOMING SCATTERED BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY AT BOTH SITES AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT
FROM THE NORTH. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ON THURSDAY. CRAS BRINGS THE
BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI INTO FAR SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN BY 09/12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING IT.

VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BNA AND CSV BUT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO FOG AT CSV LATE TONIGHT.

BOYD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT 300 PM, THE COLD FRONT/DEW POINT FRONT HAD BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY INVOF OF NASHVILLE, AND REACHED FROM NEAR
CAMDEN, TO NEAR BRENTWOOD AND JAMESTOWN.

EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH 06Z, THEN PIVOT
INTO A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION, FROM NEAR DOVER TO NEAR
CHA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN SOUTH OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT, WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR BETWEEN A TRACE AND A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

EXPECT HIGHEST DEW POINTS, AROUND 60, TO BE CONFINED TO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES, WHERE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ELSEWHERE, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS ACROSS THE MID STATE RANGING FROM THE MID 70S PLATEAU, TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S ELSEWHERE.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE PUSH INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, AS SURFACE FLOW STARTS TO TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS OUR AREA AND OLD STATIONARY FRONT OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. BY FRIDAY, EXPECT AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. FRIDAY NIGHT, DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN
AREAS, ALONG WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT SWINGS IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MID STATE. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT WILL PRODUCE OUR
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST AND MIDDLE AND
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER OVER EASTERN AREAS EARLY SUNDAY, BUT AFTER THAT EXPECT
ANOTHER DRY AND COOLISH AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

EXPECT A DRY COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD TO USHER IN EVEN COOLER
AIR, WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KOHX 310420
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1120 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

.UPDATE...FOR 31/06Z AVIATION FORECAST

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS STILL STREAMING NORTH
FROM GULF REGION WITH NEAREST PRECIP IN NORTH ALABAMA. AREA OF
SHOWERS IN NORTH ALABAMA SEEMS TO BE ERODING ON NORTH SIDE AS IT
TRIES TO WORK TOWARD SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. CRAS KEEPS MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOIST TONGUE ACROSS MIDDLE TN THROUGH TUESDAY. BASICALLY LOOKING
AT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH SITES BUT EXPECT MVFR AT CSV
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE DUE TO FOG AND HZ.

BOYD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010/

UPDATE...FOR 31/00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
TONGUE OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH ALONG INTERSTATE 65
THROUGH ALABAMA AND INTO MIDDLE TN. THIS IN AN AREA OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOWING UP ON DOPPLER
ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG I65 HAS BEEN DIMINISHING LAST FEW
VCPS WITH A WESTWARD COMPONENT BECOMING MORE EVIDENT IN MID STATE.
CRAS CONTINUES TO WORK MOISTURE NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BUT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING IT WITH TIME. EXPECT MOSTLY MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO TIME.
EXPECT TO SEE MVFR AGAIN AT CSV LATE NIGHT/SUNRISE TUESDAY DUE TO FOG.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR CHANNEL REVEALS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FROM STL TO MOB. PROGS INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GO AWAY
AND ANY SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL GO WITH IT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM THE EAST AS THE SFC RIDGE EXERTS IT INFLUENCE.

SFC RIDGE MOVES EWD OVER THE MIDSTATE AS "EARL" BRUSHES THE EAST
COAST ON THU. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THU EVE.
ANY CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH "EARL" SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST.

ON WED A STRONG H5 TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND
THEN ROLL THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THU NGT AND FRI. THIS BRINGS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SEWD FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MIDSTATE ON FRI.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION AND A GOOD BIT OF DRIER
AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA ON SAT. THE SFC RIDGE PUSHES
THE FRONT TO THE GULF COAST BY SUN WITH A DRY AND COOL SFC RIDGE
SITTING OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND.

SLY FLOW RETURNS ON MON AFTN BUT ANY CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY
WAIT UNTIL MID WEEK.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KOHX 302349
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
649 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

.UPDATE...FOR 31/00Z AVIATION FORECAST

.AVIATION...
TONGUE OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH ALONG INTERSTATE 65
THROUGH ALABAMA AND INTO MIDDLE TN. THIS IN AN AREA OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOWING UP ON DOPPLER
ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG I65 HAS BEEN DIMINISHING LAST FEW
VCPS WITH A WESTWARD COMPONENT BECOMING MORE EVIDENT IN MID STATE.
CRAS CONTINUES TO WORK MOISTURE NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BUT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING IT WITH TIME. EXPECT MOSTLY MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO TIME.
EXPECT TO SEE MVFR AGAIN AT CSV LATE NIGHT/SUNRISE TUESDAY DUE TO FOG.

BOYD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010/

SFC RIDGE MOVES EWD OVER THE MIDSTATE AS "EARL" BRUSHES THE EAST
COAST ON THU. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THU EVE.
ANY CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH "EARL" SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST.

SLY FLOW RETURNS ON MON AFTN BUT ANY CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY
WAIT UNTIL MID WEEK.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 241650
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1150 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010

.SHORT TERM...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO ONTARIO JET MAX LIFTS
NORTHEAST. UPPER DIVERGENCE ALSO IS MAINLY ACROSS THE LAKE
SUPERIOR AREA AND NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY CANADA. 500 MB PVA MAX
DOES MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT IT
IS WEAKENING AS THIS OCCURS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD MOTION
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW VERY DRY MID
LEVELS. MODERATE CAP AROUND 6 THSD FT ON RUC SOUNDINGS THEREFORE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING. FRONT MAY WELL MOVE THROUGH DRY. 12Z NAM AND CRAS DOES
GENERATE SOME SPOTTY 0.01 TO 0.03 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. GFS IS LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE WITH A SOLID BAND OF 0.01 TO
0.03. LATEST 4 KM WRF ALSO GENERATES A WEAK SCATTERED TO BROKEN
BAND OF LIGHT QPF THIS AFTERNOON.

TRANSVERSE BANDING OF CIRRUS FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROF AXIS.

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. DEWPOINTS DROPPING TO THE UPPER 40S ON THE NAM
MOS...BUT THIS MAY BE TOO LOW WITH UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS STILL IN
THE MID 50S OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WITH A RATHER STRONG
CAP AROUND 8 THSD FT. MAIN IMPACT BEING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
HIT THE MID 70S...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH DEWPOINTS
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES OVERHEAD LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
WILL LEAVE PATCHY FOG OUT...EXCEPT IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY
DUE TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWS SIMILAR TRACK...CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN...SO
DECENT CONFIDENCE IN DRY FORECAST AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...WITH TYPICAL FOG IN THE WISCONSIN
RIVER VALLEY AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY RISE.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S.

GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW...ALTHOUGH MODELS BACK
THE SURFACE RIDGE WEST A LITTLE IN THE ECMWF. QPF DRY ON THE
MODELS...BUT AS TIME GOES ON MOISTURE INCREASES BUT IT APPEARS
MAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE JUST BEYOND THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. NCEP PREFERS THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF OVER
THE PRIOR GFS RUNS. LATEST 12Z GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE SLOWER
ECMWF.

.AVIATION...

THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH SRN WI THIS AFTN
AND EARLY EVE...LIKELY PASSING THRU KMSN AROUND 18Z AND THRU THE ERN
TAF SITES BTWN 21Z AND 01Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THRU ERN
TAF SITES SHORTLY AFT PEAK HEATING...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING QUITE LIMITED. EXPECTING WDLY SCT -SHRA LATER THIS
AFTN WITH ISOLD T AS SURFACE BASED CAPES DO INCREASE TO OVER 400
J/KG. WILL CONTINUE TO USE VCNTY REMARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO
EXPECTED SPOTTY NATURE FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. MVFR CIGS WITH THE
FRONT.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE ALOFT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEWPT TEMPS WILL BE
FALLING...SO VERY MINIMAL FOG THREAT LATE TONIGHT. SUNNY SKIES AND
DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY NW WINDS TO REACH THE SFC WED
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO BE GREATER THAN 20KTS.

.MARINE...WINDS MAY BECOME ONSHORE FROM MKE AND SOUTH FOR A TIME
WITH A LAKE BREEZE. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS BTWN 21Z/24 AND 02Z/25...BRINGING WEST TO NW WINDS AGAIN. THE
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO
LAKE SFC TNGT. THE INVERSION WILL MIX OUT EARLY ON WED ALLOWING
GUSTY WINDS TO REACH SFC. CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY
CONDITIONS...BUT NOT CONFIDENT OF FREQUENT GUSTS GREATER THAN 22KT.
WILL HOLD OFF ON SC.Y FOR NOW.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...13/MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 191746 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1244 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2010

.SHORT TERM...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET.
IN ADDITION LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES NORTH INTO MINNESOTA...WEAKENING
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO WISCONSIN. BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE TO THE NORTH.

AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL SAG SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
AS A RESULT THERE IS MAINLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ...WITH WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AROUND 5
MICRO BARS PER SEC LATE THIS AFTERNOON FIGHTING A CAP AROUND 850 MB
AS INDICATED IN THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS 850 MB FLOW
INCREASES. WEAK 850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION INCREASES TO OVER 10 MICRO BARS PER SECOND JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. 2000 J/KG CAPE AVAILABLE...BUT AT MADISON STILL HAVE A
RATHER STRONG CAP AROUND 850 MB...AND WITH LACK OF MOISTURE
ABOVE...ELEVATED CAPE IS RATHER MINIMAL IF LIFTED ABOVE THE CAP.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ELEVATED CAPE OF
NEAR 900 MB IS AVAILABLE WITH WEAKER CAP AND MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS COMES LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WEAK SURFACE LOW
PUSHES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THE NAM. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT THEN PUSHES EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN

ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR STARTS OUT AT AROUND 45 KNOTS FRIDAY THEN
WEAKENS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER JET MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH NAM CAPE NEAR
2500 J/KG...WEAK CAP...HELICITY NEAR 200 AND BULK RICHARDSON
NUMBER JUST OVER 50. HOWEVER BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR
LATER THAN THIS WITH SHORTWAVE. NAM AND CRAS BOTH CENTER ON FRIDAY
EVENING AS BEST POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISOCNSIN..,....AND MAINLY TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER A DYING MCS WILL COMPLICATE THINGS ON
FRIDAY WITH CLOUD DEBRIS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOOKS REASONABLE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
SATURDAY...UNTIL COLD FRONT EXITS THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND
NOON...AGAIN DEPENDING ON ONGOING MCS POTENTIAL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE SLOWS AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
EVEN WITH PROXIMITY OF UPPER TROUGH...DRYING AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WISCONSIN AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. QPF IS RATHER MEAGER...BUT THE RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
LENDS TO A MENTION OF SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WISCONSIN THURSDAY. THIS BRINGS COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

.AVIATION...

EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHERN WI. ELONGATED BAND OF MVFR STRATUS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. CU FIELD EXPANDING ACROSS THE CWA. APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE WILL START TO PULL THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AGAIN. WHILE
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING...MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...10/COLLAR