19W develops
As of 12Z on the 24th, 19W was analyzed near 12.6N 136.3E according to JTWC. It is moving 295 degrees at 10 kts with max sustained winds at 045 kts and gusts to 55 kts. The current Satcon (as of 07Z) analyzes its intensity at 46 kts. The 12:30Z ADT gives an intensity of 47 kts.
The attached IR/upper level AMV and analyzed divergence plot shows the organized circulation, well defined outflow and divergence:
The attached MIMIC animation shows some of the convection organizing to its south as it is trying to develop an eyewall:
The shear over the center is still pretty low (around 5kts) although the surrounding shear is still fairly large (nearly 30 to 40 kts to the southwest).
So what about the future? JTWC has it intensifying by 10 kts every 12 hours or so, with intensities of 120 kts by 12Z on the 19th.
In terms of track, the models are in reasonable agreement, bringing 19W to the northwest close to Taiwan by 00Z on the 29th. JTWC has it to the southeast of Taiwan at that time: closer to the Met Office and NOGAPS solution. The GFS and ECMWF have it much closer to Taiwan.
Over the long term, the ECMWF brings 19W into the Chinese mainland as it moves westward. It also develops TCS048 over the long term, bringing along a similar track as 19W. It’s done fairly well with these genesis cases, so it is worth watching.
The ECMWF ensemble probability predicts strong vorticity along its deterministic track to be quite likely. It is a little less certain over the long range.
Links:
ECMWF, Met Office, NOGAPS, GFS 850 hpa vorticity.
ECMWF 850 vorticity probabilities.
Tags: 19W, Development, TCS047, Track