TCS047 develops
The following two images suggest that TCS047 has sustained winds near 25 kts:
Surface observations and IR Image for TCS047. The ship VNVR is reporting a wind speed of 25kts
Quikscat Analysis and IR images for TCS047. The analysis shows a clear surface circulation
The divergence is fairly strong over some of the larger convective areas, although it hasn’t yet developed an anticyclonic flow aloft:
Although the shear is strong around the storm, it has weakened a great deal over the storm center:
What is driving this development? Well, TCS047 has been under the influence of a weak upper-level low to its north. In the attached animation of upper-level AMVs you can see the weak low travel slowly northwest, perhaps allowing TCS047 better outflow and development. In this animation, 47 is at about 10N 140E:
And what about the model forecasts:
In terms of track, the models are remarkably similar, even through 120 hours.
The GFS and ECMWF bring this, by then, well developed storm just to the east of Taiwan.
The Met Office model and the NOGAPS bring it farther south, with the Met Office model a bit to the west.
All of the major models have some form of intensification.
What’s going on in the upper-levels?
The ECMWF 200 hPa forecast quickly (00Z on the 25th) erodes the upper level low and develops anticylonic flow over TCS047 as it tracks northwestward, steered by an upper level anticyclone to the west. It eventually stalls it out as this ridge moves out to the east. Hopefully this will remain around long enough for some interesting flights.
Tags: Development, intensity, TCS047, Track