TCS043: 16Z 16 September, 2008
TCS 043 has been developing over the last few hours. The attached IR animation shows some of the growing convection. Again, part of this development may be diurnally supported.
IR animation of TCS043. Animation through 16Z, September 16th, 2008.
TCS043 has healthy upper-level divergence and some anticyclonic outflow to the south and west as shown in the image below:
MTSAT IR-image with upper-level AMVs and analyzed divergence. Valid 16Z September, 16th, 2008.
TCS043 has a fairly strong upper-level low to its east. It’s in a very narrow shear minimum, with 20kt shear to it’s west and east. That might limit its current development.
How about surface circulation? There is no current quikscatt analysis, but previous ones have shown a surface circulation. The proximity to Guam, however, gives us some surface observations to look at, as shown below:
Surface obs, buoys, and ship reports near TCS043. Valid 16Z on September, 16th, 2008.
It looks like, from here, that there are signs of a surface circulation. A few of the reports are showing 15-20 kt winds around the outside of TCS043.
As for the models:
NOGAPS continues its bullish trend by developing this system quickly and recurving it around to the northeast.
The GFS develops a weaker, but slightly larger system, and also recurves the system around to the north and east by the end of the forecast period.
The ECMWF merges this system with TCS045 to the east of the Phillipeans (by about 12Z on the 19th). It strengthens this merged system and brings it across the South China Sea.
The Met Office model, which has seemed the most conservative with development, doesn’t really develop this system.
TCS043 may be a future recon flight, and has had a previous recon flight.
Tags: Development, divergence, TCS043