Sinlaku: 12Z Sept 16, 2008
According to JTWC, at 12Z, September, 16, 2008, Sinlaku is near 27.2N 124.6E with winds at 045 kt and gusts at 55 kts.
Attached is an IR image with AMVs and analyzed divergence:
Valid 14Z, September 16th, 2008.
Sinlaku is highly sheared at the moment. The wind diverges some aloft, and you can see a weak anticyclonic flow to Sinlaku’s northeast. The 0947 Quickscatt winds are still showing Sinlaku’s closed circulation at the surface.
Also, the latest SSMI pass (shown below) shows an intense convective center, but that center is displaced from the divergence maximum aloft.
85 GHZ SSMI image and upper-level analyzed divergence.
This is another sign of a system affected by shear. Also, as Sinlaku has been nearly stationary for so long, it has upwelled lower SSTs to the surface, lessening its own fuel. Sinlaku is currently centered under a region of relatively low shear (10-15 kts), but surrounded by strong shear to its north.
JTWC has it intensifying only slightly before it makes landfall near Japan. All of the primary models have Sinlaku striking Japan, but the details vary a bit by model.
The NOGAPS has it striking Japan just after 00Z on the 18th.
The GFS model has a much smaller storm. It brings Sinlaku farther south and east than the NOGAPS, and doesn’t hit Japan as directly mostly because it doesn’t make Sinlaku quite as large.
The ECMWF model is similar to the GFS although it seems to be a bit slower with Sinlaku’s progression to Japan.
The UK Met Office model seems to forecast Sinlaku at the same size as the NOGAPS (probably due to bogusing) but has timing similar to the GFS and the ECMWF model.
It’s interesting to see the NOGAPS being the fastest mover with Sinlaku, as that’s been contrary to the previous performance with these models.
And what about ET:
Bob Hart’s ET phase diagrams from the 06Z run of the GFS model is shown below:
Sinlaku's phase diagram from the 06Z September 16th run of the GFS. Courtesy of Dr. Bob Hart (FSU) and Dr. Jenni Evans (PSU)
From this diagram and model analysis, Sinlaku still has a symmetric structure until about 12Z on the 18th. It does not really a develop cold core until the 20th. The Met Office model keeps it fairly warm-cored throughout the forecast time shown. The NOGAPS analysis is a little bit slower in bringing ET than the GFS.
The P-3 and C-130 are both scheduled to fly Sinlaku on the 17th. The P-3 will take off at 20Z on the 16th and return to Japan at 06Z on the 17th and fly box patterns, investigating the pre-warm front region of Sinlaku. The C-130 will fly the same schedule, but will only ferry to Japan for future investigations.
The DLR falcon will investigate Sinlaku’s outflow, flying from the 22Z on the 16th through 07Z on the 17th.
Perhaps they can capture some pre-extratropical conditions that will be valuable for understanding ET.
Tags: divergence, ET Transition, Sinlaku, TCS033