TCS043
TCS043 is the next system under investigation in T-PARC flights. Attached is the 14Z satellite image, along with analyzed divergence:
And, here is an animation of the IR image:
From the image, you can see the increasing convection of the system over the past few hours, most likely a diurnal change. It is however, in a reasonably environment for development. It’s currently under fairly low shear, although that does increase sharply to its south. It has a weak anti-cyclonic outflow to its west and north, and has weak divergence aloft. The SSTs and OHC are favorable as well. An 0776Z quickscat image from this morning showed a closed circulation (shown below).
Quickscatt image and divergence plotted above and IR image. Quickscatt is valid 077Z on the 15th.
The EC model has analyzed the position of this disturbance fairly well, even out to 18Z. It maintains its circulation through about 12Z on the 16th, then redevelops the circulation to the south. The system slowly moves west, then merges with TCS045 and intensifies near the end of the forecast period. The model also develops a system to its west by 00Z on the 22nd. Thus, the ECWMF sees a fairly active period of systems in the deep tropics over the next few days. It will be worth watching.
Tags: Development, divergence, TCS043