State of Sinlaku, 12Z 15th of September, 2008
Sinlaku has started recurving away from the China coast, toward Japan. As of 12Z on September, 15th, Sinlaku was centered at 27N, 122.6 according to JTWC. It was moving 055 degrees at 7 kts with max sustained winds of 65 knots (gusts to 80).
Attached is the IR image and upper-level AMVs along with the JTWC forecast track:
Sinlaku’s outflow is still fairly strong, but you can see the storm’s assymetry. It’s under strong shear from the subtropical jet, although the jet probably is helping to increase it’s outflow.
Sinlaku’s track is driven primarily by a subtropical ridge to it’s east. The primary questions will be the timing when and where it strikes Japan, and when it goes under extra-tropical transition.
The EC model has a southern-Japan landfall by just after 12Z on the 18th, and it brings Sinlaku across the southern coast of the islands.
The Met Office model is actually fairly similar with timing, but seems to have a more coherent vortex analyzed.
The NOGAP model is particularly slow with Sinlaku, bringing it to Japan by 00Z on the 20th. It also brings it much farther north than the other models.
The GFS is the quickest model, bringing Sinlaku to Japan by just after 00Z on the 18th. It brings Sinlaku across the middle of the islands.
The timing/track of these storms can be very sensitive to upper level winds. A case like this may be useful for investigating the impact of AMVs, although there are no Rapid-Scan AMVs at this time.
The timing will also impact the TPARC flight missions in terms of timing. The timing of ET will also be crucial to their missions. It will be worth investigating that in future posts.