Another quiet day
Plans to investigate TCS037 fizzled. There was some debate this morning, and at the map discussion last night about investigating TCS035 as an alternative. As of right now, neither of these systems is being flown.
Below is a large-scale water-vapor image, with upper-level AMVs plotted above. The two systems of interest are annotated.
MTSAT WV Image and upper-level AMVs annotated with T-PARC invests. The image and AMVs are valid 12Z, September 5, 2008.
Attached as well are close-up satellite images of TCS037 and TCS035. TCS035 has divergence plotted above.
MTSAT IR image and analyzed upper-level divergence valid 13Z, September 05, 2008. Although the divergence for this system is large, a low level circulation hasn't really developed.
IR image and analyzed deep-layer shear for TCS037. Valid 14Z Sept. 05, 2008. This system hasn't held together particularly well over the last few hours. This strong westerly shear seems particularly hard on it.
The ECWMF model’s 850 vorticity, linked here has TCS037 analyzed fairly well in terms of position. TCS035, in terms of vorticity, is not particularly strong in the model or in the observations. The model does intensify 037 and over the very long term brings it directly into Japan.
The EC doesn’t really develop TCS035, but it does hint at something developing near the Philapeans in the long term.
The Met Office model does something similar with TCS037, although it seems to keep it slightly weaker. It, however, doesn’t really analyze TCS037 at all. TCS037 seems like a better bet in the long run, particularly if it intensifies and moves near Japan. We’ll have to keep an eye on the track and see how it changes in the next few days as well. If TCS035 does develop a low-level circulation, it will be worth watching as well.
Tags: divergence, TCS035, TCS037