TCS035 and TCS036. Potential Developer
Here is an IR image with the divergence and upper level AMVs for TCS035 and TCS036:
Upper Level AMVs, Divergence, and IR image for TCS035 and nearby TCS036. Valid 19Z, Sept. 3, 2008.
This system may be a potential developer over the next few days. It’s got plenty of warm water around it, and is currently in an area of relatively low shear with an area of higher shear to its northeast.
It looks like the GFS has a weak disturbance at this location that it maintains until about 12Z on September 5th. Then it seems to kill it off while developing a weak system to it’s north.
The NOGAPS barely initializes this sytem. It develops TCS033 slightly, but then by 00z on the 7th, it develops a fairly strong system just to the east of the Philipeans.
The Met Office model has this system (albeit a bit too far west). It holds it together and intensifies and grows the system north-east of the Philipeans.
The ECMWF seems to have the best initialization of the system, capturing its sprawled out nature. It holds it together and wraps it up in a larger system it is developing near the Philipeans. It has been developing this system in the very long term (10 day forecast or so) for several days, although it has weakened it and spread it out somewhat. It will be interesting to see what happens.
