Area Forecast Discussions

These National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussions reference MODIS, which is provided as part of the GOES‑R Proving Ground.

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FXUS65 KPIH 090907
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
207 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday. Blocking upper high continues
to be the dominant feature for the short-term period. Surface
weather will be most influenced by the surface inversion. Fog and
stratus will continue to be the norm under these conditions. MODIS
nighttime microphysics imagery very similar to 24 hours ago with
fog/stratus trapped in the Snake Plain and adjacent valleys.
Freezing fog is present at a couple observation sites, but road
conditions have not responded as yet. Thus holding off on any 
headline issuance for freezing fog. Main strategy for temps/RH was
to incorporate some persistence and carry it through Tuesday. 
Hinsberger

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Friday. High pressure ridge 
will continue to support inversion conditions through next Thursday 
night. Models are then showing support and agreement on finally 
breaking down the ridge and letting disturbances come in off the 
Pacific, the first being Friday afternoon or night. Until then, will 
continue to favor colder temperatures in the Snake Plain and some 
valley areas, with potential for some fog and low stratus. RS

&&

.AVIATION...Inversions continue to be problematic with low stratus 
and areas of fog. KBYI is still on the edge of the stratus and has 
the best potential for clouds scattering out in the afternoon. The 
other location where skies may well remain VFR is KDIJ. Confidence 
in low stratus at KDIJ in the early morning hours is marginal. The 
NAM12 model continues to support the development of easterly winds 
at the surface and in the boundary layer tonight and Sunday morning. 
The inversion has been pretty strong, but this could transport some 
of the status towards the west side of the state. RS 

&&

AIR STAGNATION...Inversions continue to hold and reduce air quality, 
particularly for Franklin County where and Air Stagnation Advisory 
remains in effect. Saturday night and Sunday morning, looking for 
development of more persistent easterly winds at the surface and 
near the top of the low level stratus in the Snake Plain. Both the 
NAM and GFS models have supported this idea the past two days. It 
probably will not get rid of the inversion completely, but it can 
transport some of the low stratus out of the Snake Plain and 
towards the west side of the state. RS 

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. 
&&

$$


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FXUS63 KGRB 180810
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
310 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Warm and quiet weather for the rest of the work week, though it
will be quite windy at times. Turning cooler by early next week.

A very energetic band of low-amplitude westerlies was across
Canada and the far northern CONUS. The pattern will undergo some
amplification during the remainder of the work week, with a trough
forming near the West Coast and increased ridging over the Great
Lakes region. Additional changes will quickly follows as a much 
stronger trough develops out near 160W. That will flip the
downstream pattern to one with a ridge near the West Coast and 
troughing over the Great Lakes region by early next week.

Temperatures 10 to 20 F degrees above normal are expected into 
the upcoming weekend, then readings will drop back much closer to
seasonal normals by early next week. The best chance for rain 
will be with a frontal system crossing the area this weekend, but 
that system seems unlikely to bring substantial rains, so amounts
are likely to end up below normal for the period.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Thursday
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Quiet weather is expected throughout the period as a series of 
strong cyclones track east across Canada. It will be windy at 
times. The main forecast issue is temperatures. Guidance was too 
cool yesterday and looks too cool the next couple days as well. 
Went with maxes for today that were a couple degrees above 
yesterdays observed values at most locations. Thursday won't be 
quite as warm as a cool front trailing from one of the Canadian 
cyclones will cross the area tonight. But highs are still expected
to be above normal. The forecast pressure gradient and some CAA 
suggest it's less likely low-levels will decouple completely 
tonight. So shaved a couple degrees off mins in the typical cool 
spots, but don't expect the drop we've seen at some locations this
morning.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Unseasonably warm weather will continue on Friday and into
Saturday (not as warm due to cloud cover/chances of rain). 
Highs on Friday will be around 20 degrees above normal
away from the bay and lake, but just shy of the record high
for the date at this point. Have raised high temperatures on
Friday per coordination with surrounding offices.

Still some timing differences among the models with arrival
of the rain and when the cold front will pass through the area
over the weekend. Latest GFS/WRF model depict precipitation 
breaking out with the southerly flow on Saturday, with main
precipitation with the cold front Saturday night into early 
Sunday morning. Yesterday, the ECMWF was the slowest model
with the passage of the cold front. The 00z run tonight
has sped up this system. Best available of capes were between
200 and 400 J/kg. Will continue the small chances of thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon and evening. Mid level lapse rates were pretty
steep. The cold front will move away from the area Sunday
afternoon, bringing drier conditions to the region. Next system 
approaches from the northwest late Sunday night, bringing another 
chance of showers Monday into Monday night. 

A significant change in the weather pattern is expected by the 
end of next week. Northwest flow will become established across 
the area, bringing an end to the unusually mild October weather. 
In reality, temperatures will return closer to normal next week, 
which will be a shock due to the expected warm weather this week.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Gusty surface winds today will probably be the most significant 
aviation weather issue during the next 24 hours. Still expect 
mainly just cirrus for clouds, though model RH progs have some 
moisture around 850 mb so it's possible some lower clouds could 
form. Still expect bases to be VFR though. The ongoing LLWS will 
ease this morning as mixing deepens and surface winds increase and
become gusty. LLWS will redevelop late this afternoon in the east
as the boundary layer decouples. But weakening wind aloft and CAA
should result in LLWS easing overnight.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Opted to keep the SC.Y rather than upgrade to a GL.W. Some gale 
force gusts are still likely, but it does not look as though they
will be widespread/persistent enough to warrant a Gale Warning. 
MODIS satellite imagery indicated water temperatures over the NSH 
waters were in the middle to upper 50s, so low-levels will be 
stable as the strongest winds move through aloft.

Persistent strong southwest winds are likely to result in high
waves on Lake Michigan Friday into Sunday morning.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Skowronski
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......Skowronski
MARINE.........Skowronski/Eckberg


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FXUS63 KMKX 260832
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
332 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium.

Initial surge of moisture advection producing scattered showers 
across western CWA early this morning.  Expect this initial 
surge to weaken early this morning as it encounters drier air 
farther east.  However reinforcing push of moisture advection 
ahead of approaching cold front should trigger more scattered 
showers and a few t-storms later this morning and afternoon 
across southern WI.  Prefer GFS solution with location of 
frontal boundary at 12Z, however all short term guidance carry 
weak low pressure over the tri-state area northeast across northern 
WI this morning and into southern Canada by this evening.  This 
track will carry a cold front across southern WI today, exiting the 
far southeast early this evening.  Deep moisture in place along with 
the passing front and enhanced synoptic lift from southern 
extent of mid-level short wave should generate at least scattered 
showers and a few t-storms across CWA today.  Showers may remain 
more scattered or isolated over far southeast WI which will be 
farther away from synoptic forcing.  Milwaukee record high is 88 
today and starting out the day in the upper 60s or low 70s.  However 
increasing mid-high level clouds should keep high temps just below 
reaching record levels.  

Showers will diminish from west to east during the afternoon and 
early evening.  Increasing low level cold air advection will 
likely pull in a period of low clouds from MN/IA for a time tonight 
as temperatures dip into the upper 40s and 50s. 

Wednesday - Confidence...High
A much cooler airmass will be in place. The cooler air brought in
by northwest winds. High pressure will be ridging into the area.  
in the wake of the frontal boundary.

Thursday - Confidence...Medium to High 
A brief thermal ridge works in ahead of another front that will 
be dropping south into northern WI associated with low pressure 
moving east of Lake Superior. 925 temps bounce back to the mid 
teens celsius with more of a westerly flow ahead of the front. 
Showers associated with this feature are expected to remain in 
northern WI. The cold front drops in Thursday evening. Models are 
not doing much with this feature its passage thus pops are mostly
on the dry side.

Friday through Sunday - Confidence...Medium to High 
High pressure regains control and the influence of this feature 
dominates through the weekend. The high will shift off to the east
into the eastern Lakes for Saturday and the NE US for Sunday. A 
return flow sets up for Sunday but at this time the progs suggest 
all precip will remain to our west in the Plains in association 
with a low pressure trough there. The coldest 925 temps are 
expected Friday night into Saturday morning with a gradual rebound
for the balance of the weekend.

Monday - Confidence...Low
The ECMWF and to a lesser extent the GEM show a quicker advance of
the Plains trough into the Upper Midwest with a more progressive
mid level pattern. The GFS keeps Monday dry with a slower more  
amplified 500 millibar trough. Looks like we should see a bump in
the 925 temps deeper into the teens celsius.

&&

.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...A few showers may brush the Madison area 
early this morning. Otherwise, expect scattered showers and 
isolated t-storms to develop later this morning and afternoon 
across southern WI as a cold front sweeps through southern WI. 
Ceilings may drop to MVFR due to passing showers. Increasing 
northwest winds behind front may pull in a period of low stratus 
across the area tonight.

&&

.MARINE...Light southwest winds will back to mostly a south 
direction this morning and waver between south and southeast for the 
afternoon due to inland heating.  Wind gusts may reach 15 knots. 
Recent MODIS imagery shows lake temperatures have rebounded back 
into the upper 60s to around 70 well offshore while pockets of 
cooler lake surface temps were located from offshore of Sheboygan 
county south to Wind Point.  A cold front is expected to pass across 
the nearshore waters late this afternoon and evening turning winds 
to the WNW.  A tightening pressure gradient and the surge of cooler 
air will result in increasing winds overnight, with gusts 
approaching Small Craft Advisory levels into early Wednesday.  For 
now, looks like most gusts will remain below 22 knots so wl hold off 
on issuing Small Craft Advisory, but mariners should be prepared for 
gusty offshore winds developing tonight. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK 
Wednesday through Monday...Collar


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FXUS63 KMKX 210840
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
340 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium to High. 

Cirrus shield from IA/IL convection over southern WI preventing fog 
from becoming more widespread and dense.  GOES-16 night time 
microphysics enhancement showing slight warming and thinning of the 
cirrus shield in northenr IA, which makes sense as convection wanes 
as Mesoscale convective vortex in vicinity of KDVN continues moving 
southeast. Removed pops from early this morning in the southwest. 
Due to cirrus shield thinning, will continue to mention patchy 
fog due to light winds and high low level humidity.  

Quasi-station boundary draped across southern IA and central IL will 
begin moving northward today in response to upstream short wave trof 
over eastern MT moving eastward through the northern Plains. Deep 
moisture with precipitable water values approaching 2 inches is tied 
to the warm front.  Increasing warm air and moisture advection into 
southwest and central WI wl likely trigger scattered thunderstorms 
this afternoon.  Influx of low 70 dewpoints will aid in MUCape 
values increasing to 2-4000 j while bulk shear increases to 20-
40kts. Thinking a few severe storms may affect northwest CWA this 
afternoon.  Can not rule out an isolated tornado with approaching 
boundary and low level shear increasing to 20 kts.  SPC Storm scale 
Ensemble of Opportunity shows higher updraft helicity and speeds 
remaining just west of the area.  

Strengthening low level jet will result in rapid convection 
initiation upsteam over southeast MN/western WI during the evening. 
This will transition to wind and hail event which will likely track 
along the warm front which by that time should be draped across 
southern Wisconsin.  Low level jet pivots east and south carrying 
strong convection across southern WI overnight.  Axis of heavy 
rainfall has shifted slightly northward more into southern WI so wl 
expand Flash Flood Watch farther northeast to include Marquette, 
Dodge, Waukesha and Milwaukee counties.  Many areas could receive 
overnight rainfall exceeding 2 inches. 3 hour flash flood guidance 
in this area is less than 2 inches. Also these areas received heavy 
rain in the recent past so antecendent conditions remain moist. For 
more discussion on tonight's rainfall, check out below hydrology 
section. 

.LONG TERM...

Saturday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is Medium.

We will lose our stronger forcing Saturday morning, but the front
may take a few more hours to sag south of the WI/IL border after
the main round of storms exits. It's a small chance but there 
could still be a few showers and weak storms that fire up along
any lingering outflow boundaries or the front through the
afternoon into the early evening. The rest of Saturday night 
will be dry as a deeper layer of dry air tracks over the area.

A more amplified and robust upper trough is expected to roll 
across Lake Superior on Sunday. The ECMWF is fastest with this
feature. The associated surface low should move across northern 
WI that drags a cold front through southern WI midday Sunday. 
There could be a few showers and storms associated with this 
Sunday afternoon and early evening, but moisture and instability 
are still questionable. 

Monday through Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium.

High pressure will keep us dry and relatively cool for the first
part of next week. Cyclonic flow may push some low clouds into
southeast WI Monday morning along a secondary cold front. Thus
highs are only expected in the lower 70s. 

Another upper low will roll through Ontario Tue night into
Wednesday and extend a surface frontal boundary into central WI.
This stalled boundary will be the focus for our next chance for 
storms Wed through Fri morning as it wavers over the area. 

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Cirrus shield from IA/IL convection over 
southern Wisconsin preventing fog from becoming more widespread and 
dense.  GOES-16 nighttime microphysics enhancement showing slight 
warming and thinning of the cirrus shield in northern IA.  Expect 
thinning to continue through the early morning as convection to the 
south wanes.  Hence light fog wl continue to affect southern WI 
through the early morning with the fog becoming localized dense, 
especially in the northern CWA.  Scattered thunderstorms will 
develop over south central WI this afternoon and transition to 
heavy rain/wind event overnight. 

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds will allow patchy fog to develop closer to the shore 
early this morning.  The fog should be shallower and quickly 
dissipate.  Recent MODIS imagery measured Lake Michigan sea surface 
temp has warmed into the upper 60s to lower 70s as recent winds have 
remained light resulting in little upwelling.  Mariners main concern 
will be a period of thunderstorms tonight.  These thunderstorms may 
produce damaging downburst winds and large hail. Most favored time 
is 03Z-10Z.  

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Will continue Flash Flood Watch across southern WI and expand into a 
few counties farther east including Marquette, Dodge, Waukesha and 
Milwaukee.  3 hour Flash Flood Guidance is less than 2 inches in 
these areas.  Precipitable water will increase to around 2 inches 
this afternoon and tonight, which is well above the normal for mid-
July.  These values are causing the North American Ensemble Forecast 
System standardized anomolies to close in on 3 units tonight. Return 
Interval for these elevated PW is getting into the one day every 1-2 
year. With strength of low level jet and passing right entrance 
region of upper level jet, significant flooding event could occur 
tonight somewhere in southern Wisconsin.  Fortunately, Corfidi 
vectors remain progressive most of the night, but hint at possible 
back-building late, most likely after MCS has passed off to the 
east.  Biggest hydrology concern is for those areas in northwest CWA 
which received heavy rainfall Wednesday night/Thursday morning 
including Sauk, Iowa and Dane counties.  Rock Springs on Baraboo 
River already forecast to get close to Major flood.  Will be 
watching hydrographs closely in next 24 hours. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through Saturday morning 
     for WIZ056-057-062>064-067>072.

LM...None.
&&

$$

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Saturday through Thursday...Cronce


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FXUS63 KMKX 191435
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
935 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.UPDATE...
An elongated stretch of low clouds exists from the Milwaukee 
Metro area west towards Madison...and is about 30-50 miles wide 
from north to south. As drier air works slowly into the region and
the day heats up with better mixing the low clouds will fade away
through the late morning and afternoon. Current dewpts are high 
with most around 70...slightly drier but muggy in the upper 60s 
north of the clouds. Rest of forecast looks to be in solid shape
with no other tweaks needed at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Recent MODIS imagery measured Lake Michigan surface temps in the 
60s to around 70. Light winds continuing with some low clouds and  
areas of fog along the nearshore. As drier air moves southward 
later this morning and afternoon, the threat of low clouds and fog
will diminish. Dry conditions are expected most of today into 
this evening as winds becoming north to northeast. A few wind 
gusts to 15-18 knots will be possible later this morning. A period
of thunderstorms may sweep across the near shore waters after 
midnight tonight, possibly producing strong wind gusts. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 659 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017) 

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...Patchy low clouds and stratus will continue
to affect southern WI this morning as surface wind shift and front
sag south through far southern WI. Expect the stratus to
eventually thin and become more few-sct later this morning and
aftn.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 348 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017) 

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium. 

The overnight showers and storms have diminished and pushed off to 
the east and south.  However weak frontal boundary remains over 
southern WI along with some weak MUCape.  Hence can not rule out an 
isolated shower or storm redeveloping next several hours, mainly 
across southern CWA.  In addition, patchy fog may become briefly 
dense due to the light winds and high low level moisture through the 
early morning.  The fog threat will diminish by mid-morning as winds 
pickup from the north to northeast and slightly drier air moves in 
from the north. A mostly dry day lies ahead for the area with some 
reprieve from the humid conditions in the northern CWA.  Humid 
conditions wl linger across the southwest. Sunshine should help 
temperatures recover into the 80s most area, but onshore flow wl 
keep lakeshore temps a bit cooler in the mid 70s to around 80. 

Stalled frontal boundary to the south of WI this afternoon will 
begin moving back to the north tonight in response to strong 
synoptic scale forcing moving across the upper midwest.  Right 
entrance region of upper jet passes across the northern Plains into 
the western Great Lakes tonight, resulting in a period of strong 
upper level divergence moving across portions of MN into WI and IA 
tngt.  All short term guidance in good agreement on vigorous low 
level jet developing across southern MN this evening and then 
spreading east or southeast overnight.  ECMWF and GEM spread strong 
low level convergence mainly eastward into central and northern WI, 
while GFS and NAM farther south.  Strong WNW winds at 700H and 500H 
would typically carry the developing MCS southeast along the 
strengthening quasi-stationary boundary that will extend from 
southern MN across eastern IA into the vicinity of southern 
WI/northern IL. Hence leaning more on southern solutions and wl 
continue likely wording for thunder in the 06Z-12Z period.  Not 
impossible a bow echo/high wind event may occur and affect the area. 
SPC higher risk category may spread farther east into southern WI 
later today. Expect tonights convection to move at a higher rate of 
speed southeast, and not expecting storms to repeatedly affect an 
area resulting in flooding rains.  However, some areas may still 
receive an inch of rainfall overnight with high rainfall rates 
resulting in ponding of water and minor street flooding. 

LONG TERM...

Thursday... Forecast confidence is Medium. 

Showers and storms will taper off across southern WI Thu morning.
It will take several hours for the atmosphere to recover, and we 
will likely lack forcing for additional showers or storms the rest
of the day since the front/outflow will presumably be down in IL.
Still, I kept the slight chance in the fcst in case any weak 
boundaries can trigger a shower or storm. 

We will still be in a warm and humid air mass, so expect highs to
reach the mid 80s but is dependent upon cloud cover. The front 
will begin to lift back northward Thu night, so there are 
increasing chances for storms after midnight.

Friday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is Medium.

Heavy rainfall possible this period. Southern WI is in a prime 
area for showers and storms over a fairly long period of time late
this week. There will be zonal flow aloft with a few
ripples/shortwaves, the right entrance region of the upper jet 
tracking over central WI, warm air advection, and moisture 
transport on the nose of the low level jet from Friday afternoon 
through Saturday morning. Precipitable water values are expected 
to be around 2 inches during this time, which is around 175% of 
normal. Showers with isolated thunder should be very efficient 
during this time and we will continue to monitor this period for a
flash flood potential.

Saturday night looks dry as high pressure briefly passes by.

Sunday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A more amplified upper trough is expected to roll across Lake 
Superior on Sunday. The associated surface low should move across
northern WI that drags a cold front through southern WI midday
Sunday. There could be a few showers and storms associated with
this, but moisture and instability are still questionable. 

High pressure will keep us dry and relatively cool for the first
part of next week. Our next chance for storms will arrive with a
warm front Tuesday night.

HYDROLOGY...

The round of thunderstorms tonight is expected to be progressive
with up to an inch of rain. Thus, this period does not look like a
flash flood threat or one that would exacerbate river flooding.

The time period to watch for excessive rainfall is Friday
afternoon through Saturday night. This active period of weather
has the potential for training of storms over the same areas to 
bring the risk for heavy rainfall. 

This would aggravate ongoing flooding across far southeast 
Wisconsin, and create flooding issues elsewhere, especially in 
urban areas. Once more confidence is gained with timing of these
rounds of storms, expected rainfall amounts will become more clear.
Keep up with the latest forecasts into this weekend.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...ABS
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...ABS
Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...ABS


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 190848
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
348 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium. 

The overnight showers and storms have diminished and pushed off to 
the east and south.  However weak frontal boundary remains over 
southern WI along with some weak MUCape.  Hence can not rule out an 
isolated shower or storm redeveloping next several hours, mainly 
across southern CWA.  In addition, patchy fog may become briefly 
dense due to the light winds and high low level moisture through the 
early morning.  The fog threat will diminish by mid-morning as winds 
pickup from the north to northeast and slightly drier air moves in 
from the north. A mostly dry day lies ahead for the area with some 
reprieve from the humid conditions in the northern CWA.  Humid 
conditions wl linger across the southwest. Sunshine should help 
temperatures recover into the 80s most area, but onshore flow wl 
keep lakeshore temps a bit cooler in the mid 70s to around 80. 

Stalled frontal boundary to the south of WI this afternoon will 
begin moving back to the north tonight in response to strong 
synoptic scale forcing moving across the upper midwest.  Right 
entrance region of upper jet passes across the northern Plains into 
the western Great Lakes tonight, resulting in a period of strong 
upper level divergence moving across portions of MN into WI and IA 
tngt.  All short term guidance in good agreement on vigorous low 
level jet developing across southern MN this evening and then 
spreading east or southeast overnight.  ECMWF and GEM spread strong 
low level convergence mainly eastward into central and northern WI, 
while GFS and NAM farther south.  Strong WNW winds at 700H and 500H 
would typically carry the developing MCS southeast along the 
strengthening quasi-stationary boundary that will extend from 
southern MN across eastern IA into the vicinity of southern 
WI/northern IL. Hence leaning more on southern solutions and wl 
continue likely wording for thunder in the 06Z-12Z period.  Not 
impossible a bow echo/high wind event may occur and affect the area. 
SPC higher risk category may spread farther east into southern WI 
later today. Expect tonights convection to move at a higher rate of 
speed southeast, and not expecting storms to repeatedly affect an 
area resulting in flooding rains.  However, some areas may still 
receive an inch of rainfall overnight with high rainfall rates 
resulting in ponding of water and minor street flooding. 

.LONG TERM...

Thursday... Forecast confidence is Medium. 

Showers and storms will taper off across southern WI Thu morning.
It will take several hours for the atmosphere to recover, and we 
will likely lack forcing for additional showers or storms the rest
of the day since the front/outflow will presumably be down in IL.
Still, I kept the slight chance in the fcst in case any weak 
boundaries can trigger a shower or storm. 

We will still be in a warm and humid air mass, so expect highs to
reach the mid 80s but is dependent upon cloud cover. The front 
will begin to lift back northward Thu night, so there are 
increasing chances for storms after midnight.

Friday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is Medium.

Heavy rainfall possible this period. Southern WI is in a prime 
area for showers and storms over a fairly long period of time late
this week. There will be zonal flow aloft with a few
ripples/shortwaves, the right entrance region of the upper jet 
tracking over central WI, warm air advection, and moisture 
transport on the nose of the low level jet from Friday afternoon 
through Saturday morning. Precipitable water values are expected 
to be around 2 inches during this time, which is around 175% of 
normal. Showers with isolated thunder should be very efficient 
during this time and we will continue to monitor this period for a
flash flood potential.

Saturday night looks dry as high pressure briefly passes by.

Sunday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A more amplified upper trough is expected to roll across Lake 
Superior on Sunday. The associated surface low should move across
northern WI that drags a cold front through southern WI midday
Sunday. There could be a few showers and storms associated with
this, but moisture and instability are still questionable. 

High pressure will keep us dry and relatively cool for the first
part of next week. Our next chance for storms will arrive with a
warm front Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Light winds high low level moisture are 
allowing patchy fog and low clouds to develop across the area. Would 
expect this trend to continue for a few more hours until mid-morning 
or so as winds become more northeasterly and increase.  Hence patchy 
IFR cigs and vsbys may affect TAF sites for a few hours.  Otherwise, 
a VFR day lies ahead.  Still looking like a period of thunderstorms 
will affect parts of southern WI after midnight tonight.  Strong 
winds may accompany the storms. 

&&

.MARINE...

Recent MODIS imagery measured Lake Michigan surface temps in the 60s 
to around 70.  Light winds for a time this morning along with high 
surface moisture may result in areas of fog developing.  As drier 
air moves southward later this morning and afternoon, the threat of 
fog will diminish.  Dry conditions are expected most of today into 
this evening as winds becoming north to northeast.  A few wind gusts 
to 15-18 knots will be possible later this morning.  A period of 
thunderstorms may sweep across the near shore waters after midnight 
tonight, possibly producing strong wind gusts. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The round of thunderstorms tonight is expected to be progressive
with up to an inch of rain. Thus, this period does not look like a
flash flood threat or one that would exacerbate river flooding.

The time period to watch for excessive rainfall is Friday
afternoon through Saturday night. This active period of weather
has the potential for training of storms over the same areas to 
bring the risk for heavy rainfall. 

This would aggravate ongoing flooding across far southeast 
Wisconsin, and create flooding issues elsewhere, especially in 
urban areas. Once more confidence is gained with timing of these
rounds of storms, expected rainfall amounts will become more clear.
Keep up with the latest forecasts into this weekend.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Thursday through Tuesday...Cronce


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 150219
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
919 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.UPDATE...

Stratocumulus continues to erode due to building subsidence.
Temperatures will fall to/or below crossover temperature
overnight. With boundary layer winds less than 10 knots, and
mostly clear skies, expanded patchy fog farther east and lowered 
overnight lows 1-3 degrees most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (03Z TAFS)...

Stratocumulus continues to thin and dissipate across southern
Wisconsin. Should be clear by 03-04Z across the area. With
boundary layer winds less than 10 knots, and little drop in
dewpoints, wl continue to mention late night fog.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds to persist through tonight, becoming offshore. Recent
MODIS sea surface temperature imagery suggested some cooler waters
have risen to the surface due to upwelling. Water temperatures
have lowered into the 50s in some pockets of the near shore
waters. With light winds and area dewpoints about 5 to 10 degrees
warmer, added patchy fog mention to northern zones for late
tonight. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 625 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017) 

UPDATE...Widespread evening clearing may take several hours 
longer than originally anticipated. Latest GOES-16 images showing 
cu and stratocumulus thinning and dissipating over eastern areas 
but still a large area of bkn-ovc sc north over south central WI. 
Still expect clearing to take place in building subsidence 
overnight with some patchy late night fog. 

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...BKN-OVC stratocumulus should continue to
thin and dissipate through the evening as subsidence builds into
the area. Late night fog may reduce visibilities to 2 to 4 miles,
possibly lower in more susceptible areas. 

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 336 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017) 

SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Saturday...Forecast Confidence is High.

These low clouds are finally breaking up and will gradually clear
later this evening as we lose daytime heating and some drier air 
aloft reaches us. Radiational cooling and dewpoints sticking
around the upper 50s should allow for some patchy fog to develop
tonight as the surface high tracks over southern WI. The better 
chance for fog is over south central WI. 

I can't rule out early morning lakeshore fog because dewpoints 
are right around the water temperature, but not enough confidence 
to put in the forecast at this time.

We should be mostly sunny during the day Saturday. Warm air being
pumped into western WI out ahead of the approaching cold front on
southwesterly winds will help us to reach lower 80s for highs.

Saturday night and Sunday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

A broad upper trough forms over the Great Lakes with another 
modest speed max pushing into southern Wisconsin late Saturday
night. Upper divergence increases with moderate 700 mb upward 
motion Saturday evening. The 850 mb thermal ridge is across
southern Wisconsin during the evening, then dropping south into
illinois late. 850 mb dewpoints rise to 14 Celsius. 850 mb winds
are west northwest early evening, then northwest late, becoming
north later Sunday. 

The cold front moves across the forecast area Saturday night, 
exiting the far south just after sunrise. The cap weakens early
evening, as zero to 1 km mixed layer CAPE rises to almost 2000 
Joules/kg. Showers/thunderstorms are expected with the cold front.
GFS forecast soundings are showing a bit more severe potential
with surface to 1 km shear around 22 knots. 

Mid, then low level drying behind the front Sunday. A northeast
flow will cool areas, especially near Lake Michigan. 

LONG TERM...

Monday through Friday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

An upper ridge extends into Wisconsin Monday before the upper 
flow becomes more zonal Tuesday and Tuesday night. The zonal flow 
continues through Wednesday and Thursday and a bit more northwest
Friday, as a broad trough forms near and then just east of the 
Hudson Bay area.

Surface high pressure will be over the great Lakes Monday. 

A warmer return flow sets up for Tuesday. As the upper flow 
becomes more zonal, the chance of thunderstorms will return from 
Tuesday evening into Friday with several periods of thunderstorms. 
the best chances are Wednesday into Thursday with a heavy rain
potential.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Clouds with bases 2000 to 3000 ft range are gradually rising to
greater than 3000 ft and breaking up a little. Light west winds 
and mostly clear skies are then expected tonight with high
pressure over the area. Radiational cooling could cause patchy 
fog to develop, more likely in south central WI.

Mostly sunny skies Saturday. Then a cold front will track
southeast through WI and could kick up some storms Saturday
evening. 

MARINE...

Light winds and waves tonight with high pressure spreading into
the area. Can't rule out early morning lakeshore fog because 
dewpoints are right around the water temperature, but not enough 
confidence to put in the forecast at this time. Increasing
southwest winds will move any lake fog offshore by late morning.

Gusty north to northeast winds are then expected for Sunday into 
Sunday evening. Some gusts to 22 knots are possible at times. 
Waves may build to 3 to 5 feet during this time. Thus, a Small 
Craft Advisory may be needed for Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update/Aviation/Marine...MBK


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 040209
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
909 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION (03Z TAFS)

VFR condition expected, except for IFR early morning fog mainly in
the Wisconsin River valley. 

High pressure slowly moving to the east of Lake Superior tonight
into Tuesday will bring quiet weather to the area. A few middle to
high clouds may pass through overnight, though mostly clear skies
are expected. More diurnal cumulus clouds expected on Tuesday. 
Winds will remain light out of the east on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...

Lake surface temperatures via the latest MODIS satellite imagery 
were showing values around 59 degrees Fahrenheit. Dewpoints are 
expected to continue to slowly drop into the 50s this evening, 
which should negate any redevelopment of fog.

Light northeast to east winds are expected tonight into Tuesday
night, with high pressure passing by to the northeast of the 
region. This will bring quiet weather, with low wave heights.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 256 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017) 

TONIGHT AND INDEPENDENCE DAY...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

Area of showers and thunderstorms over east central Iowa into
northern Illinois will remain in that area into this evening. Area
of fog east of Milwaukee has finally dissipated, and this area
should remain clear into this evening.

Diurnal cumulus clouds will gradually dissipate early this
evening. There may be a few middle to high clouds overnight, but
most of the night should be clear. Light winds should allow for a
relatively cool night, with lows in the middle 50s in most areas.
It should be a little warmer near the lakeshore.

High pressure will continue to slowly slide east of Lake Superior
into Tuesday. The high will bring dry easterly flow and bring a
pleasant day. Mild temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s are
expected inland, with onshore winds keeping lower to middle 70s
near Lake Michigan.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

Shortwave energy will carve out a closed mid-level cyclone over the 
lower Missouri valley on Tuesday. Models then project the closed 
circulation to lift northeast on Wednesday, as moisture from this
system combines with that of a northern stream wave approaching 
the western Great Lakes. Thereafter, look for the low to devolve 
to an open-wave trough as it swings east into the Ohio Valley and 
lower Great Lakes on Thursday. 

Surface high pressure will be in control Tuesday evening, with dry 
southeasterly flow preventing much intrusion of low-level moisture 
into southern Wisconsin. This should keep us high and dry for the 
evening's fireworks displays, with pleasant temperatures in the mid 
60s to lower 70s. Cloud cover will be increasing however, especially 
from around Madison west.

The surface high shifts east on Wednesday, allowing deeper moisture 
to spread into western portions of our area. Column integrated 
precipitable water values climb to around 1.6 inches by afternoon, 
with dewpoints nearing 70 degrees west of Madison. Several model 
solutions keep a west to east oriented dewpoint/low-level moisture 
gradient in place through the afternoon and evening, suggesting we 
may still be battling the high's residual influence. The best 
focused moisture transport remains to our northwest (closer to the 
mid-level wave) and south (near the deep layer low), but we do see 
some slight increase by late afternoon, as warm cloud depths 
thicken to around 3.5 km. Aforementioned moisture combined with 
diabatic heating should lead to widely scattered shower and 
thunderstorm development during Wednesday afternoon and evening. 
Model forecast soundings suggest anywhere from 500 to 1200 J/kg of
MLCAPE is possible in our west, but our instability will 
ultimately hinge on a) the amount of heating we receive, and b) 
the speed and quality of our boundary layer moisture recovery. 
Deep layer shear in the 0-6 km layer appears somewhat meager, with
magnitudes on the order of 20 to 25 knots. The Storm Prediction 
Center's Day 3 thunderstorm outlook places our western areas in a 
marginal risk for severe weather on Wednesday, and this seems 
prudent, with a few storms possibly producing gusty winds and/or 
hail.

Another shortwave drops down from the northwest on Thursday 
afternoon and evening. The 03.12z deterministic GFS solution is both 
stronger and deeper with the wave as compared to the 03.12z Canadian 
and 03.00z ECMWF solutions. Both the GFS and Canadian solutions 
bring shower/thunderstorm chances into southern Wisconsin from 
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, while the ECMWF keeps us 
dry. Will defer to the consensus PoPs during this time given the 
uncertainty.

Temperatures during this period will be seasonal, with cooler 
readings in the east due to periods of onshore flow.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

Most of the global models build high pressure into our area from the 
northwest on Friday, with the 03.00z ECMWF being the lone outlier. 
Its solution would keep the shower/thunderstorm chances going into 
early Friday afternoon. For now, will stick with the dry 
consensus.

High pressure and slightly cooler temperatures should prevail for 
the weekend, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms possibly
returning for Sunday night and/or Monday.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

Any shower/storm activity will remain south of the Illinois 
border into this evening. Scattered to broken diurnal cumulus 
clouds should dissipate early this evening. Light northeast to 
east winds are expected into tonight. The fog over the lake 
east of Milwaukee has finally dissipated, and should remain fog 
free into this evening. 

High pressure slowly moving to the east of Lake Superior tonight
into Tuesday will bring quiet weather to the area. A few middle to
high clouds may pass through overnight, though mostly clear skies
are expected. More diurnal cumulus clouds expected on Tuesday. 
Winds will remain light out of the east on Tuesday.

MARINE...

Fog east of Milwaukee has finally dissipated, and this area should
remain fog free into this evening. Lake surface temperatures via
the latest MODIS satellite imagery were showing values around 59
degrees Fahrenheit. Dewpoints are expected to continue to slowly
drop into the 50s this evening, which should negate any
redevelopment of fog.

Light northeast to east winds are expected tonight into Tuesday
night, with high pressure passing by to the northeast of the 
region. This will bring quiet weather, with low wave heights.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Hentz
Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Wood
Tuesday Night through Monday...SPM


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 031956
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
256 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.TONIGHT AND INDEPENDENCE DAY...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

Area of showers and thunderstorms over east central Iowa into
northern Illinois will remain in that area into this evening. Area
of fog east of Milwaukee has finally dissipated, and this area
should remain clear into this evening.

Diurnal cumulus clouds will gradually dissipate early this
evening. There may be a few middle to high clouds overnight, but
most of the night should be clear. Light winds should allow for a
relatively cool night, with lows in the middle 50s in most areas.
It should be a little warmer near the lakeshore.

High pressure will continue to slowly slide east of Lake Superior
into Tuesday. The high will bring dry easterly flow and bring a
pleasant day. Mild temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s are
expected inland, with onshore winds keeping lower to middle 70s
near Lake Michigan.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

Shortwave energy will carve out a closed mid-level cyclone over the 
lower Missouri valley on Tuesday. Models then project the closed 
circulation to lift northeast on Wednesday, as moisture from this
system combines with that of a northern stream wave approaching 
the western Great Lakes. Thereafter, look for the low to devolve 
to an open-wave trough as it swings east into the Ohio Valley and 
lower Great Lakes on Thursday. 

Surface high pressure will be in control Tuesday evening, with dry 
southeasterly flow preventing much intrusion of low-level moisture 
into southern Wisconsin. This should keep us high and dry for the 
evening's fireworks displays, with pleasant temperatures in the mid 
60s to lower 70s. Cloud cover will be increasing however, especially 
from around Madison west.

The surface high shifts east on Wednesday, allowing deeper moisture 
to spread into western portions of our area. Column integrated 
precipitable water values climb to around 1.6 inches by afternoon, 
with dewpoints nearing 70 degrees west of Madison. Several model 
solutions keep a west to east oriented dewpoint/low-level moisture 
gradient in place through the afternoon and evening, suggesting we 
may still be battling the high's residual influence. The best 
focused moisture transport remains to our northwest (closer to the 
mid-level wave) and south (near the deep layer low), but we do see 
some slight increase by late afternoon, as warm cloud depths 
thicken to around 3.5 km. Aforementioned moisture combined with 
diabatic heating should lead to widely scattered shower and 
thunderstorm development during Wednesday afternoon and evening. 
Model forecast soundings suggest anywhere from 500 to 1200 J/kg of
MLCAPE is possible in our west, but our instability will 
ultimately hinge on a) the amount of heating we receive, and b) 
the speed and quality of our boundary layer moisture recovery. 
Deep layer shear in the 0-6 km layer appears somewhat meager, with
magnitudes on the order of 20 to 25 knots. The Storm Prediction 
Center's Day 3 thunderstorm outlook places our western areas in a 
marginal risk for severe weather on Wednesday, and this seems 
prudent, with a few storms possibly producing gusty winds and/or 
hail.

Another shortwave drops down from the northwest on Thursday 
afternoon and evening. The 03.12z deterministic GFS solution is both 
stronger and deeper with the wave as compared to the 03.12z Canadian 
and 03.00z ECMWF solutions. Both the GFS and Canadian solutions 
bring shower/thunderstorm chances into southern Wisconsin from 
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, while the ECMWF keeps us 
dry. Will defer to the consensus PoPs during this time given the 
uncertainty.

Temperatures during this period will be seasonal, with cooler 
readings in the east due to periods of onshore flow.

.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

Most of the global models build high pressure into our area from the 
northwest on Friday, with the 03.00z ECMWF being the lone outlier. 
Its solution would keep the shower/thunderstorm chances going into 
early Friday afternoon. For now, will stick with the dry 
consensus.

High pressure and slightly cooler temperatures should prevail for 
the weekend, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms possibly
returning for Sunday night and/or Monday.

&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

Any shower/storm activity will remain south of the Illinois 
border into this evening. Scattered to broken diurnal cumulus 
clouds should dissipate early this evening. Light northeast to 
east winds are expected into tonight. The fog over the lake 
east of Milwaukee has finally dissipated, and should remain fog 
free into this evening. 

High pressure slowly moving to the east of Lake Superior tonight
into Tuesday will bring quiet weather to the area. A few middle to
high clouds may pass through overnight, though mostly clear skies
are expected. More diurnal cumulus clouds expected on Tuesday. 
Winds will remain light out of the east on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...

Fog east of Milwaukee has finally dissipated, and this area should
remain fog free into this evening. Lake surface temperatures via
the latest MODIS satellite imagery were showing values around 59
degrees Fahrenheit. Dewpoints are expected to continue to slowly
drop into the 50s this evening, which should negate any
redevelopment of fog.

Light northeast to east winds are expected tonight into Tuesday
night, with high pressure passing by to the northeast of the 
region. This will bring quiet weather, with low wave heights.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Wood
Tuesday Night through Monday...SPM


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 031528 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1028 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.UPDATE...

Area of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the far southern
counties should continue to gradually shift to the southeast of
the Illinois border by early this afternoon. These were being 
driven by some low level frontogenesis and weak 925 mb to 850 mb 
convergence. 

In addition, some fog may affect areas along the lakeshore from 
south of Sheboygan to around downtown Milwaukee until early 
afternoon. Some diurnal cumulus clouds should develop by the 
afternoon, with pleasant summer temperatures. Onshore winds will 
keep lakeshore areas cooler than normal.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...

Areas of fog will linger until early this afternoon across the
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan, mainly between Sheboygan and
McKinley Marina in Milwaukee. Latest visible satellite imagery
continues to show the fog across these areas, with a slow
decreasing trend. 

This area has cool lake surface temperatures in the upper 40s 
from the most recent MODIS satellite imagery, which combined with 
dewpoints in the middle to upper 50s is allowing the fog to form. 
Onshore winds into the afternoon should bring some downwelling 
conditions, and allow lake temperatures to warm. This should help 
the fog dissipate.

Wood

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 636 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017) 

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Isolated showers and t-storms will continue to affect far southern
WI through the morning, but should end by late morning or early
afternoon as instability axis continues to shift farther south.
Patchy fog will linger several more hours near Lake Michigan in
parts of Ozaukee and Sheboygan counties before dissipating.  

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 305 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017) 

DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium to High.

Drier, more stable air continues to slowly settle southward across 
southern WI.  However there remains a weak instability axis over the 
far south, where MUCape is around 500 j/kg.  Isolated showers and t-
storms have been moving along Cape gradient toward southwest WI from 
south of Decorah IA last several hours.  Possible this isolated 
activity may carry into the Darlington, Mineral Point and Monroe 
areas into the early morning.  Eventually instability axis and 
deeper column moisture will settle farther south into northern IL by 
late morning or early afternoon.  However an isolated early 
afternoon t-storm may brush far southern Lafayette or Green 
Counties.  Otherwise, dry and less humid conditions are expected as 
weak high pressure builds into the western Great Lakes. 

Light winds and high low level moisture has allowed patchy fog to 
develop over parts of northern and eastern CWA where skies have been 
more clear to partly cloudy.  Several observations reporting 3-5 
miles in light fog while KSBM has fallen to 1/2 mile.  However 
nearby webcams show thicker fog remains quite patchy in the 
Sheboygan area.  Hence wl stick with patchy fog wording through the 
early morning.  Light winds expected again tonight but a bit more 
mixing expected just above shallow inversion.  With potential of 
high clouds returning tonight, will hold off on adding fog mention 
for tonight. 

Tuesday - Confidence...Medium
Mid level ridging combined with a lower level anticyclone will
likely keep things dry. Bufkit soundings from both the NAM and GFS
show a decent amount of drier air in the lower levels with little
in the way of MUCAPE. The better return flow remains to our west
and though 850 dew points nudge up a bit into the southwest cwa
where a southerly flow picks up a bit more there.

Tuesday night and Wednesday - Confidence...Medium
A 500 millibar shortwave will approach the area Tuesday night with
some increase in DCVA and an eastward translation of better 850
moisture advection. The 00z GFS did scale things back precip-wise 
from the prior 18z run and now actually holds things back quite a
bit during the overnight hours. The ECMWF is a compromise between
the more robust GEM solution and the slower GFS. Better consensus
between the GFS and ECMWF for SHRA/TSRA to overspread the area on
Wednesday as the 500 millibar shortwave enhances forcing across 
the area. 

Thursday - Confidence...Medium 
The 500 millibar trough axis shifts east of srn WI with a 
northwest flow taking hold. The progs show an increase WAA from 
the west with the GFS showing additional precip development ahead 
of low pressure and a cold front approaching from the northwest. 
The ECMWF and GEM keep it dry in the afternoon with just lingering
morning chances associated with the exiting wave. 

Thursday night and Friday - Confidence...Medium
A cold front is proggd to drop into the area with some SHRA/TSRA 
expected. The GEM is the only dry model for area keeping this
precip to our north. the ECMWF has better precip coverage on
Friday morning versus the GFS which has the better potential
Thursday night. By Friday afternoon 850 cool advection gets
underway and this is more pronounced on the GFS. 

Saturday and Sunday - Confidence...Medium 
Surface/850 high pressure dominates this period with lingering 
low level thermal trough in place. High drifts east on Sunday with
winds turning more to the southwest. 

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...Patchy MVFR cigs floating around far 
southwest CWA last several hours, however expect these lower cigs 
to erode or lift to VFR as drier air continues to settle into 
southern WI. Can not rule out an isolated shower or t-storm into 
the early morning over the far south as well. Patchy fog will also
lower visibilities for a few hours in the north and east until 
12z or so this morning. Visibilities may drop to less than 1 mile 
for an hour or two. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to persist 
for much of the forecast period. 

MARINE...Onshore winds are now expected for the next several days, 
at least into Wednesday. Wind speeds will remain lighter as well.
Next chance for more widespread showers and storms will be 
Wednesday into Wednesday night. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Wood
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...Collar


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 011449
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
949 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017

.UPDATE...Near perfect day setting up over southern Wisconsin with
light winds, low humidity and temperatures rising into the 70s.
925H temps favor temps rising into the mid to upper 70s, with a
few western locations cracking 80. Developing lake breeze will
keep lakeshore locations hovering in the mid 60s to low 70s much
of the afternoon. 

&&

.MARINE...Light and variable winds over the nearshore waters will
be turning onshore in the next 1-3 hours as lake breeze develops.
Light pressure gradient due to nearby high pressure will result in
wind speeds remaining mostly less than 10 knots. Latest MODIS
imagery shows Lake Michigan surface temperatures have warmed into
the upper 40s to lower 50s in the near shore waters as well as to
mid-lake. Average Lake Michigan surface water temperature running
close to the long-term average for June 1st.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 643 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017) 

UPDATE...

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions for
today and tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017) 

SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High. 

High pressure will prevail over the western Great Lakes and the
Ohio River Valley. Full sunshine will yield high temps in the
upper 70s well away from Lake MI. A lake breeze will develop by
late morning. Lows tnt in the 50s. 

LONG TERM...

Friday through Sunday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

After a short run of mostly sunny skies and dry weather, an 
active pattern will set up for the end of the week and weekend. 
Expect increasing shower/storm chances Friday into Saturday as low
pressure approaches. The low is then progged to move through Sat 
night. 

There will be a pretty good moisture surge Friday night and
again Saturday as the low approaches, with precipitable water
values up around 1.5 inches and dewpoints as high as the mid/upper
60s. Could see a couple storms reach severe levels Fri night and 
Saturday, with SPC highlighting a Marginal Risk across much of the
forecast area both Fri and Sat. Wind flow and shear not that 
impressive, but plenty of instability. 

It looks drier Sunday, though a shortwave rotating through on the
back side of the upper low may kick of a few showers/storms. 

Models have come into better agreement with a warmer pattern Fri
through the weekend. Expect above normal temps each day, though
clouds and precip could throw a wrench in things on Saturday. If
there is a break in the action, Saturday has the potential to be
the warmest day, with highs in the 80 to 85 range. 

Monday through Wednesday...Forecast confidence is medium:

Could see a shower or two Monday as another weak wave rotates
through the backside of the broad cyclonic flow centered to the
east. High pressure is then expected to bring dry weather for 
Tue/Wed. 

Temps look like they will be within a few degrees of normal for
the first half of next week.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions for
today and tonight.

MARINE...

Light winds and low wave heights for today and Fri. Lake breezes
will occur each day. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update/Marine...MBK
Today/Tonight and Aviation...MG
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...DDV


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 200826
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
326 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium to High.

700H warm air advection which triggered strong storms over northeast 
CWA Sunday evening has since pushed well to the east of the area. 
Focus is now on low level warm air advection associated with 850H 
jet.  However LLJ has been focused across eastern IA and northern IL 
where numerous thunderstorms are currently located.  This activity 
is tracking ESE and should continue through the early morning. 
However wl carry small pops in far south through the early morning 
as elevated instability lingers across northern IL as low level 
trof axis passes through.  

Latest IR imagery shows mid-level clouds progressing steadily 
eastward last several hours with only high clouds over most of the 
area.  Not seeing much stratus developing near inverted trof/front 
at this time, but could still develop as it progresses eastward 
across srn WI this morning.  Bit more low level moisture drawn into 
the low levels from storms to the south could help low clouds form 
for a time as well.  Otherwise, expect a milder day but can't get 
too excited due to the bkn-ovc cloud cover expected much of the day 
and light winds becoming NE. Also, weak upstream 700H short wave 
over Dakotas weakens as it progresses ESE but may bring a few light 
showers to northern CWA later this afternoon, along with more mid-
level cloudiness. Increasing northeast winds will also cause 
lakeshore areas to cool during the afternoon and evening as lake 
surface temps are mostly in the 35 to 40 degree range.  Benign 
conditions to continue tonight with slightly colder temps. 

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

A cold front will drop through WI Tuesday in response to a shortwave 
trough and surface low crossing Lake Superior. Gusty north-northeast 
winds will accelerate down Lake Michigan faster than on land. Lake 
temperatures are running 35-37F/2-3C range. 850mb temps are expected 
to be in the -9 to -11C range and falling. The difference is 
right in that preferred range for lake effect snow showers. Thus, 
added a mention of flurries for now and increased sky cover 
significantly when the anticipated lake band(s) affect southeast 
WI (late Tue afternoon through overnight. Will continue to watch 
for potential of measurable snow.

Wednesday should be a cold and clear day, with the exception of some 
lake effect clouds due to easterly winds. Highs are expected in the 
30s near the lakeshore and around 40 well inland.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

Southerly winds with return flow around the high will usher moisture 
back into southern WI by Thu evening. A weak shortwave could bring 
light precip (snow) to northern WI late Wed night, but this should 
miss southern WI or just give us flurries.

Warm frontal precip is expected to arrive late Thu afternoon or 
evening. Models are coming into better agreement now. The strong 
warm air advection should allow for this precip to be in the form of 
rain across southern WI. Went with non-diurnal temp trend Thu night.

The weather pattern favors thunderstorms over the Midwest ahead of 
this mid level trough over the Plains. There is a small chance for 
thunder Thu night with the warm front, but probably a better chance 
Friday along the cold front. Too early and uncertain to discuss 
severe potential for southern WI.

Models diverge for Saturday. WI weather will depend on where the 
closed upper low tracks. 

SUNDAY AND MONDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

It looks like a very active weather pattern for next week with a 
series of shortwave troughs tracking into the Midwest from the 
Plains. Temperatures appear warm enough for all rain.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Skies are clearing across south central WI
although believe clouds at 3-4 kft will remain most of the night
and Mon AM near the IL border. Slight chances of showers and
tstorms will continue tonight into Mon AM especially near the IL
border. A weak cold front will pass Mon AM and moisture within the
frontal zone may lead to MVFR Vsbys around sunrise. Partly cloudy
skies are likely for much of Mon with mid level clouds possibly 
increasing for late afternoon and evening. 

LLWS may be possible into the early overnight via a swly 35-40 kt
LLJ.

&&

.MARINE...

Gusts to 22 knots reported at SGNW3 at 07z.  Thinking this may be 
related to outflow from earlier convection so expect winds to settle 
down early.  Light onshore flow wl turn to the north to northeast 
this afternoon after cold frontal passage.  Gusts with these winds 
may get close to Small Craft levels.  Recent MODIS imagery estimates 
lake surface temps in the mid to upper 30s.  With mild air remaining 
aloft, hoping that low level inversion wl prevent stronger wind 
gusts from reaching lake surface.  In addition, GFS showing weaker 
winds in the low levels compared to NAM and RAP.  This is a weak 
excuse however as NAM/RAP solutions typically better in forecasting 
gusts over near shore waters.  Due to low level inversion and model 
discrepancy, wl hold off on issuing Small Craft for now.  Better 
chance for stronger wind gusts Tuesday night into Wednesday as much 
colder air sags south across the Great Lakes. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Tuesday through Sunday...Cronce


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KHUN 231025
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
425 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Moisture advection and shallow isentropic ascent has led to low 
stratus development around 1.5 to 2.5 kft this morning in eastern 
areas, generally from Franklin County (TN) southward through much of
Jackson and DeKalb Counties. Patchy fog had developed by late in the
evening as indicated by several observation sites, however 
MODIS/VIIRS RGB satellite images have shown that the fog is very 
limited in coverage and largely located in narrow valleys adjacent to
the plateau. Since the low stratus has developed and moved across 
the area, some, if not most, of this valley fog has dissipated. 
Elsewhere, patchy fog was present along/near the TN River channel 
around Wheeler/Wilson Lakes and nearby low-lying communities. 
Nevertheless, the fog does not appear to be sufficiently dense or 
widespread to warrant a dense fog advisory at this time. Temperatures
have fallen into the mid to upper 50s at most locations early this 
morning, and will remain near stationary until sunrise. 

Any remaining fog will quickly dissipate after sunrise this morning.
The low stratus currently in the east and in areas to our south will
gradually spread farther westward, perhaps into the
Huntsville/Decatur metro area later this morning. However, this cloud
deck will tend to disperse during the afternoon. Temperatures this
afternoon are likely to reach the low/mid 70s for most locations.
The most likely adjustments made to the forecast later may be to 
address issues with cloud cover and impacts to temps though, since 
the timing of dissipation and extent of the low cloud deck remains a 
little uncertain.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

A broad, partially closed upper low currently in the Western CONUS 
will move into the Plains states as it phases with a northern stream 
trough in central Canada tonight and Friday. In response, a surface 
low will develop and briefly strengthen along the baroclinic boundary
stretching across the Plains and Upper Midwest while a surface cold
front moves into the Mississippi Valley region. In the warm sector 
in advance of this front, temperatures may soar into the upper 70s
across many locations in the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures as high
as 80 degrees may occur particularly in NW Alabama closer to the main
axis of strong temperature advection from the SW. Record high
temperatures are likely to fall at some locations on Friday. 

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the advancing
front on Friday, but a significant capping inversion centered around
700-800 mb will tend to keep development at bay in our area until 
late in the day. To our north, where better instability and 
dynamical forcing will be present, thunderstorm development is 
expected to occur earlier. Showers and storms are expected to then 
develop gradually southward along and ahead of the cold front as it 
moves across the area Friday evening. So, the best chances for
shower/thunderstorm activity will be in the north. CAPE values may
reach ~1000 J/KG while deep layer shear in the vicinity of ~50 kts
suggests some storm organization will be possible. Sounding profiles
suggest "thin" CAPE up through 700 mb, with most of the CAPE above
700 mb to the EL, and dry mid-level conditions with a relatively
moist boundary layer. The threat for damaging winds and large hail
will be present, but is marginal. Looping hodographs, marginally 
high effective inflow helicity, and LCLs around 1 km suggest a 
slight tornado threat during the evening. The threat for strong to 
severe storms will subside as the cold front moves across the area
quickly during the overnight period. 

Much cooler, but sunny conditions will return for Saturday as a
modified Canadian airmass moves into the area.  

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Medium range guidance from the global models is in agreement that a 
zonal flow regime in place over the southern CONUS at the beginning 
of the extended forecast period will become more amplified on Sunday 
as a 500-mb trough digs southeastward into WA/OR. A shortwave 
disturbance crossing the southern Rockies late Sunday is forecast to 
weaken and eject east-northeastward into the upper OH valley by late 
Monday afternoon, as prevailing flow downstream from the western 
CONUS trough backs to the southwest.

At the surface, the center of a Canadian surface high will be 
located across the TN valley on Sunday morning providing ingredients 
for strong radiational cooling. After morning lows in the u20s/l30s, 
highs will rebound into the u50s/l60s as the ridge shifts eastward 
off the Atlantic coast and southeasterly winds strengthen. Return 
flow will continue to increase Sunday evening, as the southern 
Rockies disturbance ejects into the Plains and a weak surface low 
forms near the Red River valley of OK/TX. Strong low-level 
warm/moist advection east of the low will support widespread showers 
from the southern Plains into the mid-South region early Monday 
morning, with this regime expected to impact our forecast area 
during the day. A few thunderstorms are possible based on amount of 
elevated CAPE in forecast soundings, but overall instability should 
be too meager to support a threat for severe convection even with 
deep-layer shear around 60 knots.

The Red River valley surface low will likely begin to degenerate 
into a baroclinic trough as the parent wave weakens and lifts 
further into the OH valley late Monday. This boundary may serve as a 
focal point for additional convection on Monday night/Tuesday, but 
the influence of this feature should also dissipate with time as the 
western CONUS longwave begins to push eastward and a new surface low 
forms in the lee of the central Rockies. Due to uncertainties on 
where the boundary may lie, we have maintained a chance POP both 
periods. If clouds and precip are less than anticipated on Tuesday, 
temperatures could easily be several degrees warmer than values in 
the current forecast.

Convection will likely become fairly widespread to the north/west of 
the region Tuesday night beneath an intense low-level jet attendant 
to deepening cyclone ejecting through the Great Lakes and into 
southern Ontario/Quebec. The trailing cold front is forecast to 
cross our region Wednesday afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms 
likely throughout the day. Although shear/instability parameters 
appear favorable for severe storms both Tuesday night and Wednesday, 
coverage/intensity of frontal convection will be dictated by 
coverage of precipitation Tuesday night. A cooler/drier airmass of 
north Pacific origin will be advected into the region in the wake of 
this front and linger through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Fog is expected to form during the overnight across the area,
courtesy of clear skies, light winds, and residual moisture from
recent rain. Although some of the fog could become locally dense -
especially late tonight, the lowest I went in the TAF was 3/4SM. VFR 
weather should return shortly after daybreak Thu as an area of high 
pressure moves east of the region, bringing a SE-S wind in the late 
morning and afternoon. 


&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...RSB


For more information please visit our website 
at weather.gov/huntsville.


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KABR 162331 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
531 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

The upper level ridge overhead this afternoon, stretching from NE 
through north central Canada will shift eastward across MN by 
daybreak Friday and continue east through the day. The 500mb trough 
over the western states will be slowly taking its place by mid day 
Friday, as a deep sfc low over Albert crosses into central 
Manitoba. Still, dry weather will remain over our region. 

Record highs for Friday range from the mid to upper 50s, with 
most of them again from 1981. Sisseton is currently forecast to 
tie the record of 58 degrees from 1981, while Aberdeen is forecast
to be 3 degrees shy of the 56 degree record from 1981. Continued 
to use available MODIS false color satellite imagery, and snow 
depth data to keep temperatures on the cool side where snow is the
deepest. As noted in the previous discussion, record sounding 
data may also be reached over the next several days.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

The weekend will be dominated by warmth and dry conditions. High 
pressure departs to our south and east, and south/southeast low 
level flow will develop in its wake, ahead of a lee low in the 
northern Rockies. This is less than favorable mixing conditions, 
however 850/925mb temperatures are 1 to 2 standard deviations above 
climo, with a peak temperature of +10 to +14C at 850mb Sunday. End 
result is that we may see widespread upper 50s/low 60s Sunday. 
Sunday night, the surface gradient continues to increase with about 
10mb across the state, not to mention increasing cloud cover and 
1/2km winds of 30-40kts. This will keep temperatures from falling 
very much overnight, with the potential for lows only in the 40s.

Monday, with the warm mild level temperatures overhead initially, 
and a surface front passing through the area, mixing will again warm 
us up into the 50s/60s, and blended guidance is just a few 
degrees off records. Consensus for the surface low track is 
shifting towards western South Dakota into northeast North Dakota.
The track favors more showery precipitation and with a few 
hundred J/KG MUCAPE will keep in mention of thunder. 

Cold advection overnight will actually keep us mixed and mild Monday 
night, and by Tuesday we are back into a warm advection regime with 
decent mixing as a low tracks across northern North Dakota. 
850/925mb temperatures remain 1 to 2 standard deviations above climo 
through the end of the forecast timeframe. 

The previous shift has also brought to our attention a system 
just outside the public forecast range. Models continue to show 
good consensus for this far out, however there are always a lot of
changes between now and the 180+ hour timeframe, so will only 
just mention the potential for a storm to track across the region 
late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Other than the potential for some patchy MVFR vsbys in fog at KATY
late tonight into early Friday morning, VFR conditions will
prevail across the area tonight through the day Friday. Look for
the possibility of some low level wind shear around the 2K foot
level over the western CWA on Friday morning, affecting KPIR and
KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF 
LONG TERM...Connelly 
AVIATION...Parkin


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KABR 162059
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
259 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

The upper level ridge overhead this afternoon, stretching from NE 
through north central Canada will shift eastward across MN by 
daybreak Friday and continue east through the day. The 500mb trough 
over the western states will be slowly taking its place by mid day 
Friday, as a deep sfc low over Albert crosses into central 
Manitoba. Still, dry weather will remain over our region. 

Record highs for Friday range from the mid 50s to mid 50s, with most 
of them are again from 1981. Sisseton is currently forecast to tie 
the record of 58 degrees from 1981, while Aberdeen is forecast to be 
3 degrees shy of the 56 degree record from 1981. Continued to use 
available MODIS false color satellite imagery, and  snow depth 
data to keep temperatures on the cool side where snow is the 
deepest. As noted in the previous discussion, record sounding data
may also be reached over the next several days.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

The weekend will be dominated by warmth and dry conditions. High 
pressure departs to our south and east, and south/southeast low 
level flow will develop in its wake, ahead of a lee low in the 
northern Rockies. This is less than favorable mixing conditions, 
however 850/925mb temperatures are 1 to 2 standard deviations above 
climo, with a peak temperature of +10 to +14C at 850mb Sunday. End 
result is that we may see widespread upper 50s/low 60s Sunday. 
Sunday night, the surface gradient continues to increase with about 
10mb across the state, not to mention increasing cloud cover and 
1/2km winds of 30-40kts. This will keep temperatures from falling 
very much overnight - with the potential for lows only in the 40s!

Monday, with the warm mild level temperatures overhead initially, 
and a surface front passing through the area, mixing will again warm 
us up into the 50s/60s - and blended guidance is just a few degrees 
off records. Consensus for the surface low track is shifting towards 
western South Dakota into northeast North Dakota. The track favors 
more showery precipitation and with a few hundred j/kg MUCAPE will 
keep in mention of thunder. 

Cold advection overnight will actually keep us mixed and mild Monday 
night, and by Tuesday we are back into a warm advection regime with 
decent mixing as a low tracks across northern North Dakota. 
850/925mb temperatures remain 1 to 2 standard deviations above climo 
through the end of the forecast timeframe. 

The previous shift has also brought to our attention to a system 
just outside the public forecast range. Models continue to show good 
consensus for this far out, however there are always a lot of 
changes between now and the 180+ hour timeframe so will only just 
mention the potential for a storm to track across the region late 
next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR ceilings and vis are expected to remain through the period for
all locations but ATY. ATY has MVFR fog this morning, and could
get another bout tomorrow morning.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...KF


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KABR 131136 CCA 
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
536 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Will start out this morning with a persistent 500mb trough 
overhead, that will slide to our east Tuesday morning. The 500mb 
cut off low just south of AZ will work across northern TX Tuesday 
morning, and merge with the eastern Canadian/U.S. trough Tuesday 
afternoon and evening. This will allow the ridge currently across 
the Pacific Northwest up through much of western Canada to 
propagate eastward across WY/MT by the end of the day Wednesday. 

At the sfc, high pressure remained over KS, with the ridge that was 
over our area at 00Z having shifted to WI. This is thanks to the low 
over central Canada sliding a trough across the Northern Plains. The 
trough will be set up overhead at 12Z, before shifting to our 
eastern counties and across western MN by 12Z. Other than some high 
clouds rolling across the region from the northwest, and a little 
uptick in the winds behind the sfc trough, we will continue to 
experience dry and mild conditions. The strongest winds will be 
downslope areas favored by west-northwest winds from Roscoe through 
Leola and Spring Creek Colony, and east of the Prairie Coteau 
from Veblen through the Twin Brooks area. Even with the wind 
direction, do not see any cold air sliding in anytime soon. 850mb 
temps will rebound to 3-4C this afternoon. Highlighted areas west 
and east of the Prairie Coteau, which seem to have been higher 
than originally anticipated over the last couple of days, and 
bumped them up a bit. These are also areas of limited to no snow 
left, which shows up well on the MODIS imagery from yesterday. 
Slightly cooler air does slide in for Tuesday, behind the exiting 
sfc-500mb low over eastern Lake Superior, knocking afternoon 
temperatures down 3-5F across the board. The coolest air. 850mb 
temps of -5 to -9C will be over the eastern half of the forecast 
area. Expect a sfc ridge to build overhead Tuesday night. Then 
warm southerly winds will return for Wednesday, as the ridge exits
across MN. Highs will be back in the 40s to low 50s for most.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

The 00Z deterministic GFS/ECMWF solutions were generating qpf over 
this cwa Sunday night (ECMWF), Feb 19, and Monday (GFS), Feb 20, in 
deep southerly flow. However, the GFS ensemble output was much less 
with qpf at the day 7-8 timeframe. "Likely" pops in Superblend for 
that forecast period may be a little overdone at this point. Until 
then, the extended is dry while an upper level ridge migrates from 
the western conus to the central conus, and upper level longwave 
troffing develops across the western conus.

When the period opens, Wednesday night, low level waa is in full 
swing with steadily warming temperatures expected through the first 
half of the weekend. If clouds and precipitation potential do start 
to show up at the end of the extended forecast later today or 
tomorrow, the impact to temperatures will likely be some cooling. At 
this point, though, p-type would probably be rain from any system 
working northward through the region within a much above normal 
temperature regime like the one being forecast for later this week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all locations through today and 
tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Dorn


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KABR 130918
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Will start out this morning will at persistent 500mb trough 
overhead, that will slide to our east Tuesday morning. The 500mb cut 
off low just south of AZ will work across northern TX Tuesday 
morning, and merge with the eastern Canadian/U.S. trough Tuesday 
afternoon and evening. This will allow the ridge currently across the 
Pacific Northwest up through much of western Canada to propagate 
eastward across WY/MT by the end of the day Wednesday. 

At the sfc, high pressure remained over KS, with the ridge that was 
over our area at 00Z having shifted to WI. This is thanks to the low 
over central Canada sliding a trough across the Northern Plains. The 
trough will be set up overhead at 12Z, before shifting to our 
eastern counties and across western MN by 12Z. Other than some high 
clouds rolling across the region from the northwest, and a little 
uptick in the winds behind the sfc trough, we will continue to 
experience dry and mild conditions. The strongest winds will be 
downslope areas favored by west-northwest winds from Roscoe through 
Leona and Spring Creek Colony, and east of the Prairie Coteau from 
Veblen through the Twin Brooks area. Even with the wind direction, 
do not see any cold air sliding in anytime soon. 850mb temps will 
rebound to 3-4C this afternoon. Highlighted areas west and east of 
the Prairie Coteau, which seem to have been higher than originally 
anticipated over the last couple of days, and bumped them up a bit. 
These are also areas of limited to no snow left, which shows up well 
on the MODIS imagery from yesterday. Slightly cooler air does slide 
in for Tuesday, behind the exiting sfc-500mb low over eastern Lake 
Superior, knocking afternoon temperatures down 3-5F across the 
board. The coolest air. 850mb temps of -5 to -9C will be over the 
eastern half of the forecast area. Expect a sfc ridge to build 
overhead Tuesday night. Then warm southerly winds will return for 
Wednesday, as the ridge exits across MN. Highs will be back in the 
40s to low 50s for most.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

The 00Z deterministic GFS/ECMWF solutions were generating qpf over 
this cwa Sunday night (ECMWF), Feb 19, and Monday (GFS), Feb 20, in 
deep southerly flow. However, the GFS ensemble output was much less 
with qpf at the day 7-8 timeframe. "Likely" pops in Superblend for 
that forecast period may be a little overdone at this point. Until 
then, the extended is dry while an upper level ridge migrates from 
the western conus to the central conus, and upper level longwave 
troffing develops across the western conus.

When the period opens, Wednesday night, low level waa is in full 
swing with steadily warming temperatures expected through the first 
half of the weekend. If clouds and precipitation potential do start 
to show up at the end of the extended forecast later today or 
tomorrow, the impact to temperatures will likely be some cooling. At 
this point, though, p-type would probably be rain from any system 
working northward through the region within a much above normal 
temperature regime like the one being forecast for later this week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all locations through tonight and
Monday. 


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Mohr


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KOAX 090904
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
304 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017

Water vapor imagery this morning was showing a well amplified
upstream ridge situated over the western CONUS with hefty moisture
spilling over the top through the Pacific northwest. At the
surface...strong high pressure was in control across the central
Plains. 

Initial concern is temperatures followed by possible precipitation
this weekend. 

A quick glance at LSRs along with yesterday afternoon MODIS false
color imagery indicated that the vast majority of the CWA north of
the I-80 corridor had snow cover with amounts generally from 2-5"
inches reported.  

For today...aforementioned Pacific moisture riding down the front
end the ridge will likely keep skies mostly cloudy. MET/MAV are
pretty similar giving highs around 30 within areas of snow
cover...with mid 30s to the south which seems reasonable for now. On
Friday...max temps are a bit more problematic. Increasing thkns
build in from the west with +15C 850mb temps/warm air advection
invading the central Plains. The bottom line is there will likely be
a large spread across the CWA with low 50s northeast and mid 60s
southwest. On Saturday....a weak cold front will bring highs down a
bit with mid 40s north and low 50s south. 


Precipitation chances return Saturday night with the approach of
a stout Pacific northwest vort max. It appears that ample forcing
via 700-500mb QG frontogenesis will be on hand...but soundings
suggest moisture availability to be somewhat in question. Latest
NAM12/GFS20/SREF all suggest changes are slim at best. Meanwhile
both the CMC/ECM lay solid swath of QPF over the CWA. At any
rate...appears likely that the main precipitation type will be
liquid with a small mix of rain/snow here and there.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017

As for the extended periods...another anomalous upper ridge building
in will lead to dry conditions next week with above normal highs
generally in the mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2017

VFR conditions through the TAF period with variable amounts of
higher clouds FL100-150. Light northwest winds 10kts or less will
become variable Thursday morning, however are forecast to increase
from the southeast 10 to 20kts Thursday afternoon. LLWS increases
at all three sites after 00Z Thursday night.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Zapotocny


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 091622 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1022 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

.UPDATE...

Snow is still expected to lift through the forecast area southwest
to northeast this afternoon into the evening. Forecast timing
seems to be in line with current trends. Will see a trace to half
an inch by evening...with additional light accumulations through
the evening and into tonight. 

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

Snow will arrive in the southwest this afternoon...lifting
northeast through late afternoon into the evening. Some light
precipitation will then linger tonight...with better development
again late tonight into Tuesday. Precip should remain mainly snow
through much of the night, but milder air will move in later
tonight into Tue morning. Still think there could be a brief mix
with or changeover to sleet and freezing rain before the precip
becomes all rain. 

Total snow is forecast to range from around a trace far southwest
forecast area...to around 3 inches in the far northeast.

Colder temps will return later Tuesday and Tuesday night, though
most of the precip will have ended by then. 

Lower ceilings and visibilities are likely at times with the
precipitation through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect tonight into Tuesday night. Low
pressure will develop in the high plains later today, and move east
northeast into northern Wisconsin and Lake Superior on Tuesday. A
tight pressure gradient with the low will result in gusty south
winds redeveloping later today and continuing through tonight. 

An extended period of gusty winds is then expected through Tuesday
night, as the low deepens as it moves northeast into southern Canada
Tuesday night. Building waves are expected tonight into Tuesday
toward the open waters, in ice free areas.

High resolution MODIS visible imagery continue to show ice regrowth
over near shore waters from around North Point Lighthouse south to
Winthrop Harbor and beyond. This may get broken up a bit with the
increasing winds and waves tonight into Tuesday night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 615 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017/ 

UPDATE...Steady light snow has moved east of southeast Wisconsin
and ended with only a few lingering flurries. 

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Borderline low level wind shear scenario
tonight but did not include in 12z TAF issuance due to increasing
surface winds. 

MARINE...Issued new Small Craft Advisory to cover expected gusty
south winds that will develop late this afternoon and tonight as
low pressure strengthens in the High Plains. A few gusts likely to
reach 30 knots. The gusty winds will linger into Tuesday night as
the low pressure area strengthens and moves across the western
Great Lakes into Canada. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017/ 

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence - Medium.

Steady light snow over eastern CWA will continue to diminish through
12z as 700mb warm air advection shifts off to the east. Seeing some
lighter returns upstream around La Crosse closer to weak sfc trof so
may be some flurries lingering into the early morning around the
area.  Some areas received a couple tenths of an inch of snow
overnight so roadways may be slippery early this morning, especially
toward Fond du Lac, West Bend and Sheboygan. 

Weak high pressure will result in generally quiet conditions for a
brief time this morning.  However another batch of -sn should spread
into southern WI this aftn as another surge of low to mid level warm
air advection spreads rapidly across the area.  Short term guidance
in good agreement on this light snow producing less than an inch of
snow accumulation by 00z with the heavier amounts in south central
WI. This warm air advection pivots northeast into central WI during
the evening with a lull in the light snow across the south.  However
expect areas of precip to redevelop later tonight as renewed surge
of low level warm air and moisture advection spreads into srn WI
along with enhanced synoptic lift from left exit region of upper
jet.  Hence wl continue likely wording for later tonight.  Warm air
push will result in a wintery mix with a potential for a period of 
-zr later tngt into Tue mrng.  Concerned that pavement temps wl lag
several hours behind 2M temps in warming above freezing since the
arctic cold has persisted over the area for days now.  ECMWF and GFS
warm sfc temps rapidly late tngt and early Tue while NAM holds onto
colder temps around freezing until 14-15z.  May eventually need a
Winter Weather Advisory to address potential for mix and slippery
travel during the Tue mrng commute but too much uncertainty
regarding sfc temps to issue at this time.  Will however post SPS to
add emphasis to concern for Tuesday.

TUESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

A low amplitude impulse will progress through the northern Plains
Tuesday morning before emerging in the upper Great Lakes region
Tuesday night. The upper level wave will escort a deepening surface
low as it tracks northeast through the region. Southern Wisconsin
will be within the warm sector on Tuesday, with temperatures
already near or above freezing by mid morning. This should limit
any mixed precipitation to our northern areas at this time, with
all rain expected by afternoon within the warm advection regime.
Precipitation amounts should be on the light side through the
afternoon, with less than one quarter inch expected.

The associated cold front should sweep through southern Wisconsin by
mid to late afternoon, bringing an end to the precipitation by
evening. We could see a brief period of mixed precipitation or
snow through early evening as temperatures fall, but impacts
should be minimal given the limited QPF.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

Models project the upper jet core to begin lifting north of the area
Wednesday morning, with a weak impulse passing through during the
early afternoon. It appears that any precipitation associated
with this wave should remain north of our forecast area.

Upper troughing will advance from the northern Rockies on Wednesday
and into the upper Mississippi valley on Thursday. Southern stream
energy will eject northeast from the central Plains, before phasing
with the larger scale wave over the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday.
This will initiate an elongated surface wave from the Great Plains
through the mid Mississippi valley on Wednesday, with a tendency for
northeastward expansion into the northern Ohio valley on Thursday.

As the surface wave develops to our south, light precipitation is
expected to begin Wednesday evening and continue into Thursday.
There is some concern for freezing rain with this system,
particularly in our southeast. Given the consensus surface low
track and timing (which could change), there should be sufficient
warm advection for warm layer temperatures to climb to around +3
to +5 Celsius for a time Thursday night in the southeast. This
suggests a relatively deep warm layer, capable of fully melting
any frozen precipitation before it's passed along to a subfreezing
surface layer. GFS and NAM forecast soundings for Kenosha also
illustrate a freezing rain profile during this time.

Forecast QPF is on the light side, with most areas receiving less
than one quarter of an inch of liquid. This would limit ice
accretion to under one tenth of an inch, given the current
consensus of models solution. Stay tuned, as this may be a period
to watch for potential travel impacts, depending upon how the
forecast evolves.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

Arctic high pressure arrives for Friday, with below normal
temperatures returning. The cold should be short lived, however,
with moderating temperatures into the weekend. Low pressure will
bring another chance for precipitation on Sunday and/or Monday.
Temperatures appear cold enough for this precipitation to be in
the form of snow.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Area of steady light snow will continue to diminish over eastern CWA
through 12Z as 700mb warm air advection slides off to the east.
Seeing some lighter returns upstream around La Crosse closer to
upstream weak surface trof so a few flurries may stick around into
the early morning.  CIGS mostly VFR but may briefly drop to MVFR for
an hour or two this morning.  Otherwise, areas of -sn will return
this afternoon and early evening with another period of lower cigs.
More widespread lower cigs are expected later tonight into Tuesday
along with a potential light wintery mix. 

MARINE...

Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until 12z this morning.
Gusty south to southwest winds will continue next several hours
until pressure gradient further weakens as weak surface low
pressure trof approaches.

Period of lighter winds expected to be brief however as stronger low
pressure will develop in the high plains later today and move ENE
into WI on Tuesday.  Pressure gradient between this system and east
coast high pressure will result in gusty south winds redeveloping
late today and continuing through tonight.  An extended period of
gusty winds is then expected through Tuesday night as the low
deepens as it moves northeast from WI into srn Canada Tue ngt. 

Will likely reissue a Small Craft Advisory later this morning once
ongoing advisory expires.  Hi res MODIS visible imagery showing ice
regrowth over near shore waters from Milwaukee county south to
Winthrop Harbor and beyond due to lighter winds on Sunday and
continued cold temps. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM CST 
     Wednesday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV/Wood
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...SPM


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 090953
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
353 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence - Medium.

Steady light snow over eastern CWA will continue to diminish through
12z as 700mb warm air advection shifts off to the east. Seeing some
lighter returns upstream around La Crosse closer to weak sfc trof so
may be some flurries lingering into the early morning around the
area.  Some areas received a couple tenths of an inch of snow
overnight so roadways may be slippery early this morning, especially
toward Fond du Lac, West Bend and Sheboygan. 

Weak high pressure will result in generally quiet conditions for a
brief time this morning.  However another batch of -sn should spread
into southern WI this aftn as another surge of low to mid level warm
air advection spreads rapidly across the area.  Short term guidance
in good agreement on this light snow producing less than an inch of
snow accumulation by 00z with the heavier amounts in south central
WI. This warm air advection pivots northeast into central WI during
the evening with a lull in the light snow across the south.  However
expect areas of precip to redevelop later tonight as renewed surge
of low level warm air and moisture advection spreads into srn WI
along with enhanced synoptic lift from left exit region of upper
jet.  Hence wl continue likely wording for later tonight.  Warm air
push will result in a wintery mix with a potential for a period of 
-zr later tngt into Tue mrng.  Concerned that pavement temps wl lag
several hours behind 2M temps in warming above freezing since the
arctic cold has persisted over the area for days now.  ECMWF and GFS
warm sfc temps rapidly late tngt and early Tue while NAM holds onto
colder temps around freezing until 14-15z.  May eventually need a
Winter Weather Advisory to address potential for mix and slippery
travel during the Tue mrng commute but too much uncertainty
regarding sfc temps to issue at this time.  Will however post SPS to
add emphasis to concern for Tuesday.

.TUESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

A low amplitude impulse will progress through the northern Plains
Tuesday morning before emerging in the upper Great Lakes region
Tuesday night. The upper level wave will escort a deepening surface
low as it tracks northeast through the region. Southern Wisconsin
will be within the warm sector on Tuesday, with temperatures
already near or above freezing by mid morning. This should limit
any mixed precipitation to our northern areas at this time, with
all rain expected by afternoon within the warm advection regime.
Precipitation amounts should be on the light side through the
afternoon, with less than one quarter inch expected.

The associated cold front should sweep through southern Wisconsin by
mid to late afternoon, bringing an end to the precipitation by
evening. We could see a brief period of mixed precipitation or
snow through early evening as temperatures fall, but impacts
should be minimal given the limited QPF.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

Models project the upper jet core to begin lifting north of the area
Wednesday morning, with a weak impulse passing through during the
early afternoon. It appears that any precipitation associated
with this wave should remain north of our forecast area.

Upper troughing will advance from the northern Rockies on Wednesday
and into the upper Mississippi valley on Thursday. Southern stream
energy will eject northeast from the central Plains, before phasing
with the larger scale wave over the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday.
This will initiate an elongated surface wave from the Great Plains
through the mid Mississippi valley on Wednesday, with a tendency for
northeastward expansion into the northern Ohio valley on Thursday.

As the surface wave develops to our south, light precipitation is
expected to begin Wednesday evening and continue into Thursday.
There is some concern for freezing rain with this system,
particularly in our southeast. Given the consensus surface low
track and timing (which could change), there should be sufficient
warm advection for warm layer temperatures to climb to around +3
to +5 Celsius for a time Thursday night in the southeast. This
suggests a relatively deep warm layer, capable of fully melting
any frozen precipitation before it's passed along to a subfreezing
surface layer. GFS and NAM forecast soundings for Kenosha also
illustrate a freezing rain profile during this time.

Forecast QPF is on the light side, with most areas receiving less
than one quarter of an inch of liquid. This would limit ice
accretion to under one tenth of an inch, given the current
consensus of models solution. Stay tuned, as this may be a period
to watch for potential travel impacts, depending upon how the
forecast evolves.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

Arctic high pressure arrives for Friday, with below normal
temperatures returning. The cold should be short lived, however,
with moderating temperatures into the weekend. Low pressure will
bring another chance for precipitation on Sunday and/or Monday.
Temperatures appear cold enough for this precipitation to be in
the form of snow.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Area of steady light snow will continue to diminish over eastern CWA
through 12Z as 700mb warm air advection slides off to the east.
Seeing some lighter returns upstream around La Crosse closer to
upstream weak surface trof so a few flurries may stick around into
the early morning.  CIGS mostly VFR but may briefly drop to MVFR for
an hour or two this morning.  Otherwise, areas of -sn will return
this afternoon and early evening with another period of lower cigs.
More widespread lower cigs are expected later tonight into Tuesday
along with a potential light wintery mix. 

&&

.MARINE...

Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until 12z this morning.
Gusty south to southwest winds will continue next several hours
until pressure gradient further weakens as weak surface low
pressure trof approaches.

Period of lighter winds expected to be brief however as stronger low
pressure will develop in the high plains later today and move ENE
into WI on Tuesday.  Pressure gradient between this system and east
coast high pressure will result in gusty south winds redeveloping
late today and continuing through tonight.  An extended period of
gusty winds is then expected through Tuesday night as the low
deepens as it moves northeast from WI into srn Canada Tue ngt. 

Will likely reissue a Small Craft Advisory later this morning once
ongoing advisory expires.  Hi res MODIS visible imagery showing ice
regrowth over near shore waters from Milwaukee county south to
Winthrop Harbor and beyond due to lighter winds on Sunday and
continued cold temps. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning for 
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...SPM


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 082113
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
313 PM CST Sun Jan 8 2017

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence Is High.

A trough will approach the forecast area this evening, and then
move through overnight. Will probably see radar returns this
evening, as warm advection increases ahead of the trough, but
seeing quite a bit of dry air in the lower levels per models
soundings. Thus, not expecting much if any of this first round to
hit the ground.

Better chance for snow will come late evening into tonight, as
deeper saturation occurs. Not much liquid with this snow, but a
cold airmass and fairly deep dendrite growth zone should result in
pretty high snow to liquid ratios. New forecast has anywhere from
a trace in the southwest forecast area, to around a half an inch
in the north.

Temps will likely warm slightly this evening ahead of the trough,
then hold fairly steady overnight as the system moves through.

It will be dry Monday morning between systems, with more snow
moving in during the afternoon. Should see some light
accumulations by evening, especially in the northwest forecast
area.

High temps tomorrow are finally expected to be back around
normal.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are trying to focus the best QPF across central Wisconsin
Monday evening, with a push of drier air from the south trying to
dry things out across southwestern portions of the area. Focused
warm air advection pushes into the area during this time,
lingering into Tuesday morning before the cold front moves east
through the area.

Models taking surface low track from southern Minnesota to the
western Upper Peninsula of Michigan later Monday night into
Tuesday morning, then pushing northeast of there Tuesday
afternoon. There is not much in the way of frontogenesis response
with this system. 500 mb shortwave trough does cross east through
area later on Tuesday. However, strong cold air advection kicks in
behind the cold frontal passage, drying things out.

Forecast soundings are generally showing light snow for most of
Monday night, with a period of a mix of light snow, light sleet,
light freezing rain and light rain south to north late Monday
night into middle morning Tuesday. All light rain is then expected
for the rest of Tuesday morning, with PoPs trending downward
quickly in the afternoon with the drier air working in. NAM keeps
things cold into Tuesday, though is an outlier and sided with the
warmer look of the other models.

Continued likely PoPs for Monday evening in the north, then for
most of the area later Monday night into Tuesday morning. May need
higher PoPs if models remain consistent. Snowfall amounts should
range from under an inch in the south, to around 1 inch in Madison
and Milwaukee, to 2 to 3 inches toward Fond du lac and Sheboygan.
May need a winter weather headline eventually for parts of the
area for Monday night into Tuesday morning, as it will affect the
Tuesday morning commute.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are showing a generally quiet period for Tuesday night,
with some differences for Wednesday. Another cold front should
slide southeast through the area later Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. The Canadian model is the only one with QPF
with the front, but kept the dry forecast, following the other
models.

Main issue will be another round of precipitation for Wednesday
night into Thursday. The GFS and Canadian models are bringing low
pressure northeast across northeast Illinois into lower Michigan.
Decent low level frontogenesis response occurs across the area on
the GFS. Area forecast soundings from the GFS are showing
potential for a freezing rain event for the area, with some light
snow mixing in across the north Wednesday evening. The ECMWF is
quicker with the movement of the low and associated upward
vertical motion.

For now, left higher PoPs in there for Wednesday night, tapering
off on Thursday. Left precipitation types as light snow for
collaboration purposes at this time, but may have to add in
freezing rain in later forecasts. This would impact the Thursday
morning commute. High pressure would then bring another shot of
Arctic air for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions will prevail into this evening, as high pressure
exits and a trough of low pressure approaches. Most places will
probably see a little snow late this evening and into tonight, as
the trough moves through. Accumulations are expected to range from
a dusting to a half inch or so. This will be a very dry snow, with
snow to liquid ratios of at least 20:1. Will probably see some
lower ceilings and visibilities as the snow moves through.

Dry weather is then expected Monday morning, as there will be a
brief break between systems. Snow will then move back in during
the afternoon, with more light accumulations likely into the
evening and overnight.

It still looks like a period of low level wind shear is possible
this evening into tonight, while the low level jet moves through
ahead of the trough.

&&

.MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect this evening and overnight,
as south to southwest winds become gusty ahead of an approaching
trough.

Winds will likely return to advisory levels Monday night into
Tuesday night, as low pressure passes through the region.

New MODIS image shows a decent amount of ice south of Milwaukee,
so expect limited waves in these areas until there is a change in
the ice.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday 
     for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...Wood


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KLOT 270948
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
348 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...
347 AM CST

Today through Wednesday night...

Relatively tranquil period of late December weather is expected
into mid-week, as surface high pressure spreads across the Ohio
Valley into Wednesday. Main weather features today will be a
gradually diminishing but continued blustery west wind gusting
20-25 mph, closer to, but still slightly above average
temperatures, and a period or two of cloud cover brushing the
northern tier or two of Illinois counties through mid-day or early
afternoon. Despite modest but persistent low level cold advection, 
model 925-950 mb thermal fields support temperatures generally in
the 35-40 degree range this afternoon, especially across the
southern 2/3 of the forecast area where MODIS-Terra satellite
imagery from yesterday afternoon shows no remaining snow cover.
Coolest temps, at or a little above freezing, are expected across
the northern tier of IL counties where some snow cover still
exists. Guidance in fairly decent agreement with temps, though
favored slightly cooler MET numbers over snow cover in north
central IL, and slightly warmer MAV farther south.

While high pressure passes largely south of the area tonight,
weaker ridging will extend north across the cwa beneath a region
of 70-80 meter 500 mb height rises which develop in the wake of a
mid-level short wave trough which passes across the region late in
the day. Winds will finally weaken substantially this evening as
the gradient weakens with the approach of the surface ridge. Temps
should fall off fairly quickly through the 20's this evening with
light winds and clear skies especially over those
north/northwesternsnow covered locations.

Looking to the west, a strong upper jet streak propagates across
the Pacific Northwest and central Rockies tonight into Wednesday,
leading to amplification of an upper trough across the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region through Wednesday night. Strong H5 
height falls, on the order of 150+ meters, develops across the
region by Wednesday night in association with the deepening trough
and a 140 knot upper level jet streak which translates through the
base of the amplifying trough into the Ohio Valley overnight. Low
level winds back to the south and increase late tonight and
Wednesday, with warm advection and resulting isentropic ascent
eventually leading to development of a mid-level overcast by late
Wednesday afternoon. Low levels remain dry however, with large
temperature/dew point spreads persisting through Wednesday night
despite fairly vigorous forced ascent. Thus no precipitation is
expected prior to the associated surface trough/cold front which
moves through Wednesday night. South flow and warm advection would
support temperatures in the 40's Wednesday per low-level model
thermal fields. MAV/MET numbers pretty close up north, but prefer
the slightly warmer MET guidance across much of the central and
southern cwa where mid-upper 40's appear reasonable given lack of
snow cover. Quick tightening of the surface pressure gradient
should make for a fairly windy day however, with gusts around 30
mph from the south keeping wind chills in the 30's. The warm-up is
fairly brief, as the surface trough/cold front pushes through
Wednesday night with a return to colder west flow.

Ratzer

&&

.LONG TERM...
204 PM CST

Tuesday night through Monday...

Not looking for a very active week weather-wise. Robust clipper
tracking well to our north should supply a quick shot of robust
warm air advection Wednesday. NAM continues to think there's snow
on the ground and is holding temps back as a result. Have
continued to trend highs warmer than the NAM tainted blended model
guidance and closer in line with the MAV which has highs well into
the 40s. 

Cold front moves through with little fan fare Wednesday night with
breezy and much cooler conditions Thursday. Forecast soundings
suggest the potency of the CAA will be greater aloft resulting in
steepening lapse rates which still look like they could result in
flurries and perhaps some scattered snow showers Thursday
afternoon. Not looking like a measurable precip event at this
time. 

Another clipper fast on the heels of the first will attempt to
moderate temps late Friday into early Saturday before another cold
front moves through likely cooling temps off a bit. 

Later in the weekend into early next week forecast confidence is
MUCH below average. ECMWF and GFS both dig a vigorous shortwave
south down the California coast eventually closing off this
mid/upper level low, before ejecting the system eastward. This is
where the spread in solutions grow exponentially, with some models
(12z operational GFS) phasing this system with northern stream and
spinning up a powerful cyclone, while other guidance tracks a
weakening southern stream wave across the southern states missing
us altogether. Individual ensemble members run the gamut from
unseasonable warmth to potential snow storm by early next week, in
fact the ECMWF ensembles have high temps ranging from mid 50s
(warmest member) to barely 10 above (coldest member) by next
Tuesday. Needless to say, no big changes made to the blended
guidance in that time range except to lower pops from likelys
Monday given this uncertainty.

Izzi

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs...

Easing but still gusty westerly winds along with a period of
MVFR clouds into early Tuesday morning are the two items of
interest in the aviation forecast.

Gusty westerly winds have started to slowly ease, though still
cannot rule out sporadic gusts to 30 kt through 09Z. The overall
cyclonic, cold advection weather pattern will keep regular gusts
through Tuesday morning, with direction between 250 and 280
degrees. The gust magnitude will ease gradually through Tuesday
afternoon and then more quickly at sundown.

Scattered to broken cold advection stratocumulus clouds will
move over the TAF sites through Tuesday morning. Confidence in
cloud bases remaining between 2000 and 3500 ft is high.

MTF

&&

.MARINE...
205 AM CST

Low pressure continues to shift eastward into western Quebec
early this morning. Westerly winds continue to be in the 30 to 35
KT over the open waters of Lake Michigan as of this writing, with
slightly lighter flow of 25 to 30 KT in the Illinois and Indiana
near shore waters. The current gale headline is set to end at 3 AM
CST this morning. While the winds are expected to ease below gale
force this morning, a couple of lingering Gales may extend an hour
or two beyond this time, especially over Lake Michigan. I don't
anticipate needing to extend the warning end time, but I will make
a last minute decision on this prior to the 3 AM GLF issuance.
Otherwise, the gale warning will be transitioned to a small craft
advisory for today, especially for the Indiana waters where high
waves will linger through the day.

A period of lighter winds are expected tonight as a surface ridge
of high pressure shifts over the region. The winds will back to a
southerly direction by early Wednesday morning, then increase out
of the south Wednesday. These strengthening southerly winds on
Wednesday will be driven by a clipper system shifting eastward
into western Ontario by late Wednesday afternoon. Pressure falls
ahead of this low over the Upper Great Lakes will likely help
drive a period of 30 to perhaps 35 KT southerly winds over the
lake. While some low end gales are possible during the day, it
appears they will be somewhat short lived. Because of this, no
gale headline is planned at this time, but I will mention the
potential of gale force gusts in the GLF.

This same clipper system will push a cold front over Lake Michigan
Wednesday night, and this will set up another period of strong
west-northwesterly winds over the lake for Thursday and Thursday
night. It appears probable that 35 to 40 KT west-northwesterly
gales will develop during the day Thursday before abating Thursday
night. The strongest winds are expected over the southern half of
the lake (including the Illinois and Indiana near shore waters). A
gale headline will likely need to be issued for this period as we
get closer.

An active weather pattern is expected to continue this weekend and
into next week, with another clipper system forecast to shift
towards the western Lakes region by Saturday. This could result in
another period of southerly winds followed by a quick return to
northwesterly winds Saturday night. Following this, yet another
storm system may develop and shift northward into the lower Great
Lakes region by early next week. Depending on the strengthen, and
the track of this potential storm system, this could yet again
produce strong winds over the lake.

KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 6 AM Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 4 PM 
     Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM Tuesday.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 232108
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
308 PM CST Fri Dec 23 2016

TONIGHT... Forecast confidence is medium.

An area of 600-700mb frontogenesis, 850-700mb warm air advection,
and deep lift due to the 300mb jet circulation is currently along a
line from northeast Iowa to Green Bay and is associated with pockets
of moderate snow. This axis of heavier precip is in the area
highlighted by the winter wx advisory with 2 to 3 inches expected in
the MKX area, more toward central WI.

The radar returns are showing a more broken/spotty scenario than
what I had expected so far in this event. It is taking a long time
to saturate from the top down over southern WI, even though periods
of snow has made it to the ground here and there. 

There should still be a period of steadier snow sliding across
southern WI during the late afternoon/evening, coincident with the
axis of 700mb frontogenesis, but lagging behind the 600mb
frontogenesis affecting more of central WI. This is the feature to
watch as it could produce moderate snowfall rates during the
afternoon/evening commute and peak travel time for this holiday
weekend.

No change to the advisory area or time. There is still the potential
for a quick burst of snow between 5 and 8 pm for southeast WI. Up to
an inch of snow would be possible with this feature.

SATURDAY...Forecast confidence is high.

Low clouds and potentially light fog will linger through Saturday
morning. The exception is near Lake Michigan where extra mixing
could allow for drier air from the upper levels to clear out the
clouds for a time. Low level moisture is expected to get trapped
below an inversion, so the clouds should linger all day at inland
areas. This will keep temperatures in the lower 30s, warming to just
above freezing during the afternoon.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...Forecast confidence is
high. 

Nothing has really changed for this period. The powerful low
pressure system will still track well northwest of the area,
across northern Minnesota. This puts us well into the warm sector,
and rain. The initial moisture surge well out ahead of the low
could bring a period of freezing drizzle later Saturday night and
Sunday morning. This will be pretty light with impact on the
minimal side. We then warm up enough to keep it all rain until the
associated trough/cold front sweeps late Sunday night/Monday
morning. Fog is still a concern with the mild and moist airmass
flowing in across the existing snowpack for Saturday night into
Sunday, but the brisk winds will limit how dense it gets. There
is little or no elevated CAPE on the soundings, so decided to pull
the mention of thunder.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. 

High pressure should keep this period quiet. Temperatures will
fall in the wake of the departing low...but not too cold. Highs on
Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 20s, rising back
into the lower 30s on Wednesday. With the warmer temperatures on
Wednesday the European model does bring a surge of moisture and a
small chance of light snow to the area during the afternoon.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. 

The European model is a bit snowier looking than the GFS and the
Canadian for Wednesday night into early Thursday. They all have a
trough swinging through the Great Lakes, but the EC is a bit
deeper, more west and quicker with the returning moisture and
clips Wisconsin with snow before pushing quickly off to the east.
The GFS and Canadian keep the bulk of the snow east of Wisconsin
during the period. Given the uncertainty, there are small chances
of light snow during this period, but overall it looks pretty
quiet.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Moderate snow is ongoing over central WI, with the main area setting
up north and west of Madison. The back edge of the precip is over
eastern Iowa and this will translate east across southern WI with
stronger 700mb frontogenesis. Expect a period of steadier snow
between 4 and 7 pm in south central WI and 5 to 8 pm in southeast WI.
Visibilities should be down to less than a mile and a quick
additional inch of wet snow is possible. Snow will taper off from
west to east by midnight.

Expect cigs and vsbys to lower to IFR or lower during any steady,
moderate snow late this aftn and early evening. It looks like
ceilings are going to remain low overnight into Saturday morning due
to light winds and lingering low level moisture. Patchy fog is
likely which could be IFR visibility, but confidence is low on
coverage.

&&

.MARINE...

Increasing south to southeast winds ahead of an approaching low
pressure trof will get close to Small Craft Advisory levels later
this evening. However expecting most gusts to remain at or below
22kts for now. Mariners can expect light snow...possibly mixed with
rain...to spread into the area during the afternoon, ending later
tonight. Recent MODIS lake surface temperature image continues to
show temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 30s.  Hi res vsbl image
from Thursday not showing much ice buildup along the shore. 

The next storm system to pass far to the northwest of the area on
Sunday will bring strong winds from Sunday afternoon through Monday
night. Gale force southwest then west gusts are possible on Monday.  

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ046-
     056-057-062-063-067-068.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until midnight CST tonight for WIZ047-
     051-052-058-059-064.

LM...None.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/Saturday AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday...Davis


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 231643 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1043 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016

.UPDATE...

An area of 600-700mb frontogenesis, 850-700mb warm air advection,
and deep lift due to the 300mb jet circulation is currently over
central/northeast Iowa and associated with moderate snow. This
forcing will quickly spread n-ne through WI from late this morning
through early afternoon. The axis of heavier precip is still on
target for bisecting the state sw-ne, highlighted by the winter wx
advisory.

The latest mesoscale models are showing the area of high
reflectivity currently over central IA sliding across southern WI
during the late afternoon/evening, coincident with the axis of 700mb
frontogenesis, but lagging behind the 600mb frontogenesis affecting
more of central WI. This is the feature to watch as it could produce
high snowfall rates during the afternoon/evening commute and peak
travel time for this holiday weekend.

No change to the advisory area. We will highlight the potential for
a quick burst of snow between 5 and 8 pm for southeast WI.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

Snow will spread into southern WI from west to east late this
morning and likely will not start accumulating in MKE and the
lakeshore areas until 2 or 3 pm. The radar is showing returns over
the south half of WI this morning, but this is not reaching the
ground yet.

Moderate snow is expected toward central WI, possibly including
Madison, but likely north and west of there. This will be from mid
afternoon through early evening.

A quick burst of snow is now expected across southern WI near the IL
border between 2 and 7 pm and southeast WI between 5 and 8 pm
including MKE. Expect visibilities down to less than a mile and a
quick additional inch of wet snow.

Expect cigs and vsbys to lower to IFR and lower for a time most
areas this aftn and early evening before lifting. Possible some snow
grains or pellets mixed with snow at times.  

&&

.MARINE...

Increasing south to southeast winds ahead of an approaching low
pressure trof will get close to Small Craft Advisory levels later
today into tonight. However expecting most gusts to remain at or
below 22kts for now.  Mariners should expect light snow...possibly
mixed with rain...to spread into the area during the afternoon,
ending later tonight. Recent MODIS lake surface temperature image
continues to show temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 30s.  Hi
res vsbl image from Thursday not showing much ice buildup along the
shore. 

The next storm system to pass far to the northwest of the area on
Sunday will bring strong winds from Sunday afternoon through Monday
night. Gale force southwest then west winds are possible on Monday. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016/ 

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium To High.

Will delay onset of mostly light snow spreading across southern
WI a few hours until late morning and afternoon. Short term
guidance remains in good agreement blending of lift from upstream
short wave trof and warm air advection, resulting in light snow
developing over srn WI later this morning and afternoon. 

Despite initially warm, above freezing air aloft, elevated
maximum wet bulb expected to remain below freezing as
precipitation spreads in. Hence low levels will cool as they
moisten resulting in mostly snow event, however there could be
some snow grains or pellets mixed in at times. Even those areas
that will likely see surface temperatures rise into the mid 30s
should experience mostly -sn.

Still looking at snowfall amounts mostly in the 1 to 3 inch range,
with the heaviest amounts across the northwest CWA. Snow ratios
will be anywhere from 8 to 12 to 1, with QPF values in the 0.20 to
0.35 inch range. Will delay start times of Winter Weather Advisory
by several hours due to slower arrival. Also, will leave area from
Rock County northeast to Waukesha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee and rest of
southeast WI counties out of advisory for now, as amounts in these
areas should be mostly less than 2 inches.

Also, slightly warmer temperatures may allow a bit more melting
of the snow as it falls. Day crew will need to watch these areas
for high snowfall rates occuring during the afternoon drive time,
as more people likely to be traveling for the long holiday
weekend.

Lift from passing short wave exits southern WI fairly rapidly
during the evening. Loss of ice crystals falling into cloud
bearing layer lags lift by several hours so held off on
introducing any light freezing rain or drizzle toward the end of
the event.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Weak high pressure moving east across the area should bring a
brief period of quiet weather for Saturday. Lingering low level
moisture below the inversion should keep at least some of the low
clouds around through the afternoon into Saturday night. Mild
temperatures are expected.

Models are now in pretty good agreement with the trends with the
strong low for Saturday night into Monday. They have the low
undergoing cyclogenesis on Christmas Day as it shifts north
northeast from the central high Plains into the eastern South
Dakota area. The low then shifts into northern Minnesota Sunday
night, before the low weakens and moves to north of Lake Superior
Monday. 

Southern Wisconsin continues to see focused warm air advection
push through on Christmas Day, along with some low level
frontogenesis response fields. It may take some time for the air
column to saturate Saturday night into Christmas morning, with no
ice crystals. Thus, continued to mention light freezing drizzle in
the forecast. Temperatures will warm enough for all rain by the
afternoon hours. May see a very light glazing on roads Saturday
night into Christmas morning. 

The strong cold front then shifts northeast through the area
Sunday night, as the low occludes. This should continue to bring
rain to the area, before ending by 12Z Monday. Kept slight chances
for thunder in the south just for Sunday night, when weak elevated
CAPE values exist on NAM/GFS forecast soundings. Also kept fog
mention for later Saturday night into Christmas Day, with mild
temperatures moving over the snow covered ground.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

Strong downward momentum mixing is expected in the dry slot of
this system for later Sunday night into Monday, with a tight
pressure gradient. The result should be a period of strong west
southwest winds, with sustained winds and gusts approaching Wind
Advisory levels. Area forecast soundings support these wind
speeds. Certainly a period to watch for possible wind headlines,
as this period draws closer.

A period of quiet weather looks to be in store for Monday into
Wednesday morning, as high pressure slides by to the south of the
region. Temperatures look to remain near seasonal normals, except
Tuesday with some cooler temperatures. 

Models differ quite a bit with the system for Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday, so will lean on consensus blended PoPs for
temperatures and precipitation. 

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Still expect a period of snow to affect southern WI, spreading in
later this morning and diminishing from west to east during the
evening. Expect cigs and vsbys to lower to IFR and lower for a
time in most areas this aftn and early evening, before lifting.
Possible some snow grains or pellets mixed with snow at times.

MARINE...

Southwest winds will back to the south to southeast this morning,
ahead of approaching low pressure trof. Tightening pressure
gradient ahead of system will result in increasing winds that will
get close to Small Craft Advisory levels today into tonight.

However, expecting most gusts to remain at or below 22kts for
now. Not enough confidence at this point that warrants posting
Small Craft Advisory at this time. 

Mariners should expect light snow to spread into the area during
the afternoon, ending later tonight. Recent MODIS lake surface
temperature image continues to show temperatures mostly in the mid
to upper 30s. Hi res vsbl image from Thursday not showing much ice
buildup along the shore.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ046-
     056-057-062-063-067-068.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight CST 
     tonight for WIZ047-051-052-058-059-064.

LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC/DAVIS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...Wood


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 230943
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
343 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium To High.

Will delay onset of mostly light snow spreading across southern
WI a few hours until late morning and afternoon. Short term
guidance remains in good agreement blending of lift from upstream
short wave trof and warm air advection, resulting in light snow
developing over srn WI later this morning and afternoon. 

Despite initially warm, above freezing air aloft, elevated
maximum wet bulb expected to remain below freezing as
precipitation spreads in. Hence low levels will cool as they
moisten resulting in mostly snow event, however there could be
some snow grains or pellets mixed in at times. Even those areas
that will likely see surface temperatures rise into the mid 30s
should experience mostly -sn.

Still looking at snowfall amounts mostly in the 1 to 3 inch range,
with the heaviest amounts across the northwest CWA. Snow ratios
will be anywhere from 8 to 12 to 1, with QPF values in the 0.20 to
0.35 inch range. Will delay start times of Winter Weather Advisory
by several hours due to slower arrival. Also, will leave area from
Rock County northeast to Waukesha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee and rest of
southeast WI counties out of advisory for now, as amounts in these
areas should be mostly less than 2 inches.

Also, slightly warmer temperatures may allow a bit more melting
of the snow as it falls. Day crew will need to watch these areas
for high snowfall rates occuring during the afternoon drive time,
as more people likely to be traveling for the long holiday
weekend.

Lift from passing short wave exits southern WI fairly rapidly
during the evening. Loss of ice crystals falling into cloud
bearing layer lags lift by several hours so held off on
introducing any light freezing rain or drizzle toward the end of
the event.

.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Weak high pressure moving east across the area should bring a
brief period of quiet weather for Saturday. Lingering low level
moisture below the inversion should keep at least some of the low
clouds around through the afternoon into Saturday night. Mild
temperatures are expected.

Models are now in pretty good agreement with the trends with the
strong low for Saturday night into Monday. They have the low
undergoing cyclogenesis on Christmas Day as it shifts north
northeast from the central high Plains into the eastern South
Dakota area. The low then shifts into northern Minnesota Sunday
night, before the low weakens and moves to north of Lake Superior
Monday. 

Southern Wisconsin continues to see focused warm air advection
push through on Christmas Day, along with some low level
frontogenesis response fields. It may take some time for the air
column to saturate Saturday night into Christmas morning, with no
ice crystals. Thus, continued to mention light freezing drizzle in
the forecast. Temperatures will warm enough for all rain by the
afternoon hours. May see a very light glazing on roads Saturday
night into Christmas morning. 

The strong cold front then shifts northeast through the area
Sunday night, as the low occludes. This should continue to bring
rain to the area, before ending by 12Z Monday. Kept slight chances
for thunder in the south just for Sunday night, when weak elevated
CAPE values exist on NAM/GFS forecast soundings. Also kept fog
mention for later Saturday night into Christmas Day, with mild
temperatures moving over the snow covered ground.

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

Strong downward momentum mixing is expected in the dry slot of
this system for later Sunday night into Monday, with a tight
pressure gradient. The result should be a period of strong west
southwest winds, with sustained winds and gusts approaching Wind
Advisory levels. Area forecast soundings support these wind
speeds. Certainly a period to watch for possible wind headlines,
as this period draws closer.

A period of quiet weather looks to be in store for Monday into
Wednesday morning, as high pressure slides by to the south of the
region. Temperatures look to remain near seasonal normals, except
Tuesday with some cooler temperatures. 

Models differ quite a bit with the system for Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday, so will lean on consensus blended PoPs for
temperatures and precipitation. 

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Still expect a period of snow to affect southern WI, spreading in
later this morning and diminishing from west to east during the
evening. Expect cigs and vsbys to lower to IFR and lower for a
time in most areas this aftn and early evening, before lifting.
Possible some snow grains or pellets mixed with snow at times.

&&

.MARINE...

Southwest winds will back to the south to southeast this morning,
ahead of approaching low pressure trof. Tightening pressure
gradient ahead of system will result in increasing winds that will
get close to Small Craft Advisory levels today into tonight.

However, expecting most gusts to remain at or below 22kts for
now. Not enough confidence at this point that warrants posting
Small Craft Advisory at this time. 

Mariners should expect light snow to spread into the area during
the afternoon, ending later tonight. Recent MODIS lake surface
temperature image continues to show temperatures mostly in the mid
to upper 30s. Hi res vsbl image from Thursday not showing much ice
buildup along the shore.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this 
     evening for WIZ046-056-057-062-063-067-068.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight CST 
     tonight for WIZ047-051-052-058-059-064.

LM...None.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...Wood


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 210949
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
349 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Strong push of warm air advection and isentropic omega will sweep
across southern WI today. Impressive layer Q-vector convergence of
20 to 30 units passes through the area later this morning through
mid-afternoon. However, all short term guidance keep lower levels
fairly dry below 5K ft across southwest CWA. Deeper moisture
lowers to below 5K ft in the northeast for several hours. 

Hence wl have chance pops in the NE tapering off to a chance for
flurries farther southwest. Thinking strong lift may be able to
shake some flurries from mid-clouds that may reach the surface.
Forecast soundings show low levels warm 1-3 degrees above freezing
through a deep layer. However maximum wet bulb temperature aloft
remains several degrees below freezing. 

With plenty of ice introduction aloft, most of the precip that
does reach the ground should be light snow or flurries but could
be some snow grains or pellets mixed in.

Strong lift moves off to the east late in the afternoon. Cold air
advection in wake of passing low pressure system should bring a
period of widespread low clouds to the area overnight. A few
flurries could get shaken out from these low clouds as well, but
not enough confidence to include in forecast package at this
point.

.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are in pretty good agreement with high pressure passing by
to the south of the area Thursday into Thursday night. This should
bring quiet weather to the area during this time. Area forecast
soundings were trying to hold onto some of the low clouds from
tonight into this period. However, think push of drier air into
the area should scour out these low clouds Thursday. Temperatures
should be near seasonal normals during this period.

Main issue will be precipitation types for Friday into Friday
evening, as 500 mb trough slides east through the region. First
push of differential cyclonic vorticity advection occurs Friday
afternoon, with another Friday evening. Area also sees some
modest warm air advection. GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models are showing a
fairly broad area of QPF pushing through the region Friday
afternoon, with the NAM starting to come on board with this trend.
They try to hold onto some QPF Friday evening in the east, before
moving out by later Friday night. Thus, increased PoPs to likely
Friday afternoon, with chances Friday evening.

Leaned toward GFS/ECMWF/Canadian trends, with GFS forecast
soundings supporting mainly light snow for most of Friday, before
deep saturated air column loses mid to upper level moisture late
Friday into Friday evening. This would bring a transition to some
light freezing rain or freezing drizzle during this period. Any
snow accumulations would be around 1/2 inch at most Friday, with
a light glazing possible Friday evening. This period will need to
be watched for possible impacts for holiday travel.

.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Main issue this period will be precipitation types with the strong
low for Saturday night into Sunday night across the area. A brief
period of quiet weather Saturday is expected. 

Then, GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models show a strong low undergoing
cyclogenesis as it shifts from the central high Plains to central
Nebraska Christmas Day. It then shifts northeast into central or
northern Minnesota Sunday night, before occluding as it shifts
across Lake Superior Monday. Thus, some model differences still
exist with timing and placement of this strong low.

Moist conveyor belt pushes northward into the area on Christmas
Day, with plenty of upward vertical motion from focuses warm air
advection and low level frontogenesis response. Good differential
cyclonic vorticity advection also occurs Sunday night. Cold front
then pushes through the area Sunday night or Monday morning. 

GFS forecast soundings suggest a period of light freezing rain
would be possible Saturday night into Christmas morning, before
all rain develops by afternoon into Sunday night. Went with this
general trend in the forecast for now, until models can get into
better agreement with timing and placement of low and related
features. Temperatures should be relatively mild for Christmas Day
into Monday. This will be another period to watch for holiday
travel impacts.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Small chance of light snow later this morning and afternoon
across northern and eastern CWA, as strong lift associated with
passing low pressure and warm air surge. Lower levels remain
fairly dry so kept pops low. Few flurries may get shaken out of
mid-clouds farther south. 

Expect mostly VFR conditions today, but brief period of -sn may
lower cigs/vsbys briefly to MVFR. Cold air advection behind
passing low pressure will bring a period of lower cigs across srn
WI tonight.

&&

.MARINE...

Gusty west winds will continue to diminish early this morning as
pressure gradient further weakens. Tug located several miles
southeast of Sheboygan at 08Z reported sustained winds of 18kts
and Racine Reef still reporting wind gusts around 20kts. 

These off-shore winds will back to the south to southeast ahead
of an approaching low pressure trof and restrengthen this
afternoon and evening. Recent MODIS imagery showing lake surface
temp remaining mostly in the mid-upper 30s. Hi-Res MODIS vsbl
imagery from Tuesday also showing small areas of ice build up east
of Racine and Wind Point. Expect this ice to thin and melt as
winds pick up from the south today along with warmer daytime
temps. 

Low level winds will start to gust to around 25 knots by late
afternoon and continue through tonight as low pressure passes by
to the north. Hence will post new Small Craft Advisory, beginning
late afternoon, and carrying into Thu morning.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST 
     Thursday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Wood


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KCHS 172319
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
619 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through late week. A dry cold front will 
advance through the area on Saturday, followed by much cooler high 
pressure through the middle of next week. Another cold front will 
move through next Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Thermal falls are beginning to accelerate this evening within a
decoupled boundary layer and prime radiational conditions are 
expected to prevail once again. Opted to nudge temperatures down
a few degrees across the coastal corridor and introduce some 
stronger mesoscale influences over some of the normally colder 
areas such as the Francis Marion National Forest to account for 
the expected radiational setup. Also nudged temperatures over 
Lake Moultrie up by several degrees given trends noted at 
Pinopolis over the past several mornings. 

Conditions favor another night of shallow ground fog across the
area with the better fog parameters looking to align across
mainly the central and southern zones. Smoke generated by
wildfires burning over the Southern Appalachians and the
foothills of North Carolina will not be as much of an issue 
tonight, but it will linger in many places as the nocturnal
inversion strengthens. A late afternoon MODIS image clearly 
showed a large smoke plume in place across much of South 
Carolina and Georgia, but it was certainly not as thick as 
previous days given the more northerly steering trajectory.

The South Carolina DHEC has issued a CODE ORANGE Air Quality
Alert for Charleston and Beaufort Counties. As a reminder, the
Georgia Department of Natural Resources' Air Protection Branch
does not issue Air Quality Alerts for Southeast Georgia.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The large ridge will persist through Friday night before
shifting off the coast as a potent shortwave approaches. 
Unseasonably warm temps expected Friday through Saturday, then a
cold front will sweep through late Saturday afternoon with much
colder air resulting. No rain expected with the front though
breezy conditions expected Saturday. By Sunday, high temps 
will only peak in the upper 50s to lower 60s despite a full day 
of sun. A decent gradient will produce 10-15 mph winds on 
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold/dry high pressure will build across the region behind a cold 
front departing well offshore Sunday night, bringing some of the 
coldest temps so far this season. The main issue will be overnight 
temps as cold air continues to advect into the region aloft while 
sfc winds become light. At this time, Sunday night lows should 
approach the low/mid 30s away from the coast with a few areas 
potentially hitting the freezing mark well inland and north of I-16. 
Given the setup, a freeze watch/warning could be needed. Cooler 
conditions will persist into Monday with high temps peaking in the 
upper 50s north to low/mid 60s south, but temps should be a few 
degrees warmer Monday night, keeping temps slightly above freezing. 
Temps will gradually recover into the middle of next week under a 
zonal flow. In general, temps will peak into the mid/upper 60s 
Tuesday, then upper 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday. Another dry cold 
front should then approach the region on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR for much of the period, although shallow ground fog could
reduce vsbys to high-end MVFR at KSAV 09-12z. Smoke/haze will
continue to impact both terminals for Friday.

Extended Aviation Outlook...VFR conditions are expected at both
KCHS and KSAV terminals. Breezy Saturday/Sunday with a passing 
cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Tranquil conditions expected with high pressure in 
control. Could see some patchy smoke which could reduce 
visibilities below 5 NM at times.

Friday through Tuesday: High pressure will dominate the coastal 
waters through early Saturday with sub-advisory winds/seas. A 
dry cold front will then move through the waters Saturday 
evening with strong cold air advection and 25-35 kt low-level
winds resulting in Small Craft Advisory conditions across most
if not all of the waters. Conditions improve Monday into Tuesday
with high pressure settling over the waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor salt water flooding is expected around the times of the 
morning high tide Friday and potentially into Saturday until a 
cold front sweeps offshore. Coastal Flood Advisories are likely.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EST tonight for SCZ040-
     042>045-047-049-051-052.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EST Friday night for SCZ048-
     050.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KJKL 141827
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
127 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 127 PM EST MON NOV 14 2016

Latest MODIS data showing some light smoke is being seen across
the area from Eastern TN wildfires. Given the overall better
concentration based on the MODIS was in the far south and
therefore added patchy smoke in the grids. The areas nearer the
fire will have more issue related to VIS, but LOZ has improved
this afternoon. This as BL winds are expected to shift to a more
SW to W direction, but there could be a slight delay given some
smoke further downstream in portions of central KY and Middle TN.
Overall more minor changes made to deal with the latest obs and
trends.

UPDATE Issued at 1040 AM EST MON NOV 14 2016

We are once again dealing with some smoke across the region. The
BL winds are out of the south and this is pulling some smoke from
the TN Valley into mainly southern portions of the CWA. Several
sites in the south are dropping to 2 to 7 miles VIS. These winds
are expected to shift more southwest to west, and this should help
to decrease the smoke through the afternoon. The overall forecast
grids are in good shape but did update with latest obs.

UPDATE Issued at 644 AM EST MON NOV 14 2016

Freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points into the
diurnal rise to account for the latest trends in observations.
Otherwise, the forecast remains track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM EST MON NOV 14 2016

Broad surface high pressure is sprawled from southeast Texas to
the Tennessee Valley. A weak cold front is slowly shifting east
and southeast from the Midwest down to the southern Plains
states. Aloft, troughiness is culminating across the central to
eastern CONUS. A couple of weaker upper level lows are moving
through the flow, one currently near the Missouri/Arkansas border
headed east, and the other moving more northeast into North
Carolina. Meanwhile, a more substantial short wave is moving
towards the Midwest.

Eastern Kentucky remains under the influence of the surface high
pressure nearby, with another cold night, thanks to a dry column
and nearly calm winds once again. Valleys will likely not bottom
out quite as much as yesterday morning, but a few places may get
close. 

Moisture will gradually be on the increase through the short term,
as the weak cold front approaches from the west. Today will
feature another mostly sunny day, with light and variable winds
picking up out of the west at 5 to 10 mph during peak mixing. This
trajectory should help keep the smoke in check besides localities
in the vicinity of any ongoing fires. Highs will generally be in
the lower 60s once again.

Tonight will feature mostly clear skies, with an increase in
cloud cover towards dawn. While dew points will not be as dry as
Sunday, still think that some of the eastern valleys will likely
dip below 30 degrees once again, while ridges stay up at around 40
degrees.

Tuesday will be a partly to mostly cloudy day, with the cold front
disintegrating as it attempts to make its way across our parched
region. Highs will be a touch cooler in most places thanks to the
clouds, with around 60 degrees more common.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 AM EST MON NOV 14 2016

The extended period will start off dry and warm, with near normal
temperatures expected on Wednesday, and well above normal
temperatures on tap for Thursday and Friday. Highs on those three
days are forecast to top out in the low to mid 60s, upper 60s to
around 70, and the lower 70s respectively. Scattered clouds are also
expected to move across the area on Wednesday, as a trough of low
pressure aloft exits the area. After that, a large ridge of high
pressure is progged to move slowly eastward across the eastern
CONUS, bringing unseasonable warmth to eastern Kentucky to end the
week. 

A significant pattern change is then expected over the upcoming
weekend. The models are in agreement that a large trough of low
pressure aloft will sweep across the Rocky Mountains and across
the Plains and eventually the Great Lakes, and Ohio and Tennessee
valley regions Friday night through the weekend. This system is
expected to pull a good deal of cold air out of southern Canada
and into the eastern CONUS as it makes its way east. There are two
schools of thought with regard to this system. First, the ECMWF
model brings a strong cold front across our region Friday night
and Saturday, with widespread rain showers accompanying the front.
This model has rain lingering across eastern Kentucky through
early Sunday morning. The GFS, on the other hand, is about 6
hours slower with its eastward moving front than the ECMWF, and
has its front weakening significantly as it moves our way. In
fact, the GFS has very little if any rain actually affecting
eastern Kentucky this weekend and essentially is moving a dry
front across our area. That being said, the precipitation forecast
for the weekend will feature the timing of the ECWMF model, with
scaled down precipitation probabilities based on the amount of
uncertainty between the two models. Will go with a 20 to 30
percent chance of rain for the period Friday night through early
Sunday morning.

The cold air associated with the weekend trough looks like it will
be the real story. Saturday and Sunday should see below normal
temperatures, particularly Sunday, after the trough axis has moved
east of our area and winds have shifted to the northwest. Highs
on Saturday are expected to only max out in the 50s, with max
values in the 40s possible for Sunday. Overnight lows from
Wednesday through Friday night are expected to bottom out in the
30s and 40s. Saturday night and Sunday could be substantially
colder, with lows each of those nights in the lower 30s and mid to
upper 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON NOV 14 2016

VFR remains the story with high pressure in control across the
region. We do see some mid to high clouds across the far SE
otherwise most our seeing mostly sunny skies. The only other
issue is smoke coming in from wildfire across the TN Valley. This
as BL winds have been out of the south and southeast this morning.
The smoke is expected to subside through the afternoon, as the BL
winds shift to a more SW to W direction. The only TAF site that
has seen issues this morning is LOZ and they have since returned
to VFR. We could begin to see a lower cloud deck, with dry cold
front toward the end of the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KMRX 132011
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
311 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight and Monday)...
For this afternoon and early evening...removed any slight chance
POPs for extreme eastern areas. Upper low and associated pcpn SE
of the area continue to move E.

Biggest immediate concern is with the air quality in the lower and
middle East Tennessee Valley. Observations in Knoxville and
Chattanooga coupled with latest visible satellite imagery and MODIS
high resolution polar orbiter all indicate a very widespread area
of smoke and reduced visibilities extending from SE Tennessee up
the valley into NE Tennessee...although no observations in that
area are yet reporting lowered visby. With flow in the lowest 3000
feet remaining fairly weak over the next 24 hours...do not expect
this reduction to visby and poor air quality to even have a chance
to lessen until at least late Monday afternoon when winds in this
layer may begin to shift more uniformly out of the west. In the
meantime, decoupling overnight will certainly trap smoke near the
surface and could exacerbate already poor air quality.

As the upper low southeast of the area continues to push further
east into Monday, high pressure settle in across the area. A rather
vigorous shortwave moving over Arkansas today will slide NE across
the area tomorrow bringing nothing more than some enhanced
cloudiness over the upper third of the area. Expect near normal
temperatures with afternoon RH values dropping again toward 30
percent...further reinforcing the afternoon fire weather hazard
across the area.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Sunday)...
Unfortunately, much of the long term period will be dry even as a
long wave trough hangs around across the Eastern U.S. through mid
week. There just isn't enough moisture for the production of any
widespread showers when a weak cool front builds southeast through
the Southern Appalachians early on Wednesday. Another strong upper
level ridge builds east across the eastern states later Wednesday
through Friday keeping the dry forecast in place. Finally, late
Friday night into Saturday a cold front will move across the
forecast area generating some rainfall. Some uncertainty exists in
terms of the intensity of the precipitation with this frontal
system, but of course, any rainfall is welcome. There is a small
chance that there could be a few more showers on Sunday as
additional short wave energy drops southeast through the base of
the weekend long wave trough. It looks like another mild November
week ahead with high temperatures starting out about three to four
degrees ahead of normal on Tuesday. The warmth continues through
the work week with highs topping out a good ten to to twelve
degrees above normal by Friday. Cooler air building in over the
weekend with bring us back to normal or below with highs in the 50s
by Sunday.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             40  67  43  66 /   0   0   0  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  38  63  40  64 /  10   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       39  63  39  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              32  61  34  60 /  10  10   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

 


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KHUN 131848
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1248 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 1245 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016

Rather busy day here at the office as calls/tweets continue to roll
in about the smoke across the area. The low level flow remains east
to northeasterly, and visibilities have dropped to around 4-5 miles
in spots across northeast Alabama. Midday shortwave IR imagery from
MODIS shows several large fires/hotspots, with the largest being the
Rough Ridge/Cohutta fire across north central GA. At last report,
this fire has burned over 19k acres. Multiple fairly signficant fires
evident across eastern Tennessee into western NC, showing up even
through the midday cloud cover.

Aside from the smoky conditions, clouds have cleared out this
afternoon as the initial upper low ejects east (more on that in a
bit). Temps recovered quickly from a chilly start, currently running
in the low to middle 60s in most locations. Winds will decouple
quickly tonight making for a rather smoky night. Through the
smoke/haze, viewing of the super/mega/colossal moon should be decent
if not optimal across the area. For reference, the supermoon will
reach its closest point to earth tonight at 522 AM CST. Moon rise
this evening will be around 440 PM CST with moon set around 610 AM
CST.

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1245 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016

A messy split flow pattern will persit through the short term with a
series of southern stream systems passing across the region over the
next 48 hours. The first aforementioned upper tough/low will
continue to push east toward the southeast United States coastline
tonight. Although this feature did bring some cloudiness to the
region earlier today, the rainfall remained well east of the
Tennessee Valley.

The next wave will weaken significantly as it approaches the area on
Monday. Little in the way of low level moisture will be present with
this sytem, and only expect an increase in mid/high clouds
perhaps late Monday. One bit of good news, winds should slowly veer
to a more westerly direction and help somewhat with the smoke/haze
situation (at least temporarily). Refer to our recent social media
posts (over the past couple of days) along with today's Public
Information Statement on more details concerning the smoke/fires.

Despite some increase in cloud cover late on Monday, the warm air
advection and southerly flow should help temps reach a category or so
above today's readings for high temperatures. A secondary shortwave
trough will move across Monday night on the back edge of the larger
scale longwave trough. This system will have a bit more lift
associated with it, although moisture is still limited. The latest
high resolution model guidance produces very light QPF across
northern MS and northwest AL late Monday night into early Tuesday.
Will continue dry forecast for now given already dry thermal profiles
and little model continuity.

The upper level ridge will sharpen acros the central/southern plains
on Tuesday in response to some phasing of nrn/srn stream energy
along the eastern seaboard. This will help to push a weak dry front
across the Tennessee Valley. Really not much, if any, airmass change
with this feature as thickness values remain at or above
climatological norms. In fact, trends show a slightly less amplified
eastern CONUS flow pattern than previous runs.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) 
Issued at 1235 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016

To start this period, an upper ridge will be over the central
portion of country with the TN valley in nw flow. By Thursday the
upper ridge axis is progged to move over the sern US. This scenario
will keep dry conditions along with a slight warming trend across
the cwa. Aftn highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the low/mid
70s with mrng lows mainly in the mid 40s. These aftn/mrng temps will
also continue into Friday. However Friday looks to be the last day
of above normal temps as a fairly strong cdfnt will be approaching
the TN valley. For now will lean a little more with the GFS for the
timing of the cdfnt. As such the cdfnt should begin to affect the TN
valley by late Friday night and into Saturday mrng. If the GFS is
correct the cdfnt should be out of the cwa by the early evening
hours on Saturday. Behind the cdfnt much more colder temps will push
across the area on Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 50s
with a good chc of freezing temps by Sunday night/Monday mrng
)based on GFS model soundings). 

As for any severe wx with this cdfnt, it looks to be a low cape/
high shear event, especially late Friday night and early Saturday
mrng. However overall it does not look like a widespread severe
event attm, due to speed of cdfnt and perhaps a lack of good
moisture return. Thus for now will maintain slight chc wording for
tsra on Friday night and just shra on Saturday. However may have to
add a slight chc of thunder on Saturday for locations east of
I65.This will all depend on the timing of the cdfnt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2016

Weak ridging will persist across the Tennessee Valley through tonight
helping to maintain general VFR conditions at both KHSV and KMSL.
Light northeasterly flow does continue to advect in smoke from fires
in Northern Georgia, with the smoke layer extending up to around 8
kft. This obscuration may reduce visibilities in isolated spots to
around 5-6 statute miles. A weak system will approach the area on
Monday resulting in a wind shift to the south and eventually
southwest. 


&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...007
AVIATION...15


For more information please visit our website 
at weather.gov/huntsville.


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KJKL 131742
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1242 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1242 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2016

The latest MODIS imagery suggests the heaviest smoke remains
across the TN Valley this afternoon. There are more localized
issues here in eastern Ky particularly near the I-75 region around
London and south/east. Given the more isolated nature will keep
out of the grids. However some VIS restrictions are being seen in
these areas based on webcams and ASOS. The 12Z HRRR Smoke product
does suggest some elevated light smoke issues through the
afternoon particular in the south, but this is not expected to be
like the smoke issues seen last week. Forecast grids are on track
but did update with latest obs.

UPDATE Issued at 1028 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016

Most sites have come above freezing this hour and therefore the
Freeze Warning has been allowed to expire. Given the widespread
hard freeze this will also put a end to the Frost/Freeze Program
until spring. In terms of the forecast, surface analysis shows a
high pressure generally center across northern KY and portions of
WV. Meanwhile a upper level low is centered across the TN Valley
and Northern GA, and this is bringing showers and clouds to
portions of GA/SC this AM. We will remain under the control of the
surface high and therefore another very dry day is on tap. We
could also see some light smoke across the region today in the
lower levels, but not confident that this will cause any
widespread surface VIS restrictions. Therefore will leave out of
the grids for now. However the localized sites near some of the
ongoing wildfire will continue see restrictions. Updated grids
with latest obs and trends, otherwise no major changes needed at
this time.

UPDATE Issued at 648 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016

Freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points, based on the
latest trends in observations. Temperatures look to rise to above
freezing at all locations by 10 am, so will let the current
headline run its course. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016

High pressure is currently poised from the Arklatex region to
the Ohio Valley. Aloft, an upper level low is cutting off near the
Tennessee Valley, with another weaker cutoff low spiraling near
the Texas/Oklahoma border. In between these two features, resides
a ridge, currently centered across the Midwest. 

Clear skies and calm winds has allowed for the coldest night thus
far this fall season across eastern Kentucky. Some valleys are 
already in the lower 20s, with another 4 hours or so of cooling to
take place, yielding some upper teens in at least a few spots by
dawn.

Mainly clear skies will be seen today, as most of the cloud cover
associated with the Tennessee Valley cutoff will remain southeast.
Despite the cold start, highs will make it back into the lower 60s
for most locations today. The Midwest ridge will break down
tonight into Monday, with more troughiness culminating across the
Ohio and Tennessee valleys by the end of the short term. Tonight
will not be as cold, although with drier dew points likely mixing
down once again today, think that some valleys will make it into
the 20s once again. 

Monday will feature a mostly sunny to partly cloudy day, with
highs similar to today, although readings will be just a touch
cooler in the east, where more clouds will reside.  

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 304 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016

The extended period should start off with a large trough of low
pressure aloft parked over the eastern third of the CONUS. Since
this system will be starved for moisture, we can expect nothing
more than scattered cloud cover across the area as the trough
pushes slowly off to the east Monday night and Tuesday. High
pressure, mainly aloft at first, should begin displacing the
aforementioned trough Tuesday night into Wednesday. As the ridge
moves over our area, we can expect continued dry weather and a few
clouds here and there through Friday. The next chance for rain
across eastern Kentucky may not arrive until as late as Friday
night, as a trough of low pressure and its associated surface cold
front approach the area. This issue with this part of the forecast
will be the timing of the weather system. As of now the GFS and
ECMWF models differ quite a bit in this regard, with the GFS
having a much slower solution than the ECMWF. Both models do,
however, depict a strong area of low pressure with plenty of
moisture for precipitation production, and a rather cold air mass
moving in behind it. Another feature of this area of low pressure
would be its somewhat slow eastward movement as it strengthens
during its eastward trek. This would allow any precipitation the
system produces to linger across the area through early Sunday
morning.

Temperatures across the area should start out around normal, with
highs on Tuesday and Wednesday expected to top out in the upper
50s and lower 60s. A gradual warm up is then expected for the end
of the week, as winds shift to the south and southwest ahead of an
approaching trough of low pressure. In fact, we could see high
temperatures topping out in the upper 60s and lower 70s Thursday
and Friday. The proof of the aforementioned cool down will likely
be revealed on Saturday, with highs only expected to make it into
the mid to upper 50s across the area, as a much colder air mass
settles over the area behind our departed trough. Nightly lows
should generally be in the 30s and 40s area wide during the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2016

VFR and light winds remains the story for most through the TAF
period. There is some isolated smoke across the southeast KY this
afternoon. Therefore will continue with a VIS restriction for
smoke at LOZ. There is quite a bit of uncertainty on if this will
clear out this evening. HRRR smoke product would show at least
some elevated light smoke issues lingering in that area through
the evening into the night. Right now will cutoff the MVFR VIS by
00Z, but this may need to be extended further particularly once
the inversion sets up.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KHUN 122056
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
256 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016

An upper level shear axis extending from NE TX to the Mid-Atlantic
states is in the process of becoming a cut-off low just to our west.
With the weak system to our west tonight models are all in agreement
in keeping winds out of the NE/E. MODIS satellite imagery this
afternoon was a good indicator of just how much smoke has made it
into the area from the wildfires across N GA/E TN/W NC. For tonight
one concern is the potential for reduced visibilities due to smoke
from the wildfires. Observations from this morning only indicated a
reduction down to 6-7 miles due to the smoke but this was only in
Jackson and DeKalb counties. Unless we start to see more easterly
winds in N GA/NE AL believe that the visibilities will be similar to
this morning of 6-7 miles. 

Latest Air Quality forecast has portions of Jackson and DeKalb
counties in a "Unhealthy for sensitive groups". It is recommended
that people with asthma or are sensitive the reduced air quality limit
their time outdoors this evening.

Mostly clear skies tonight and generally light winds will allow for
temps to drop into the upper 30s. 

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016

The system mentioned above begins to shift eastward into NW GA during
the day Sunday. The latest guidance continued to indicate that the
cut-off low would be able to advect some moisture back to the west up
through central GA and guidance still generates some light rain with
the moisture advection. Expect a gradual increase in cloud cover as
moisture in the mid-levels spreads into the eastern half of the
area. However, with the amount of dry air over the region and the
center of the upper level system over AL/GA any precip that does form
over central GA will remain well to our east. While we miss out on
any precip, the good news is that with winds becoming westerly will
help to clear out some of the smoke.

We will remain under a broad trough with a few shortwaves moving
across the region Monday and Tuesday. But dry air is forecast to
continue with PWATS less than 0.5 inches and dewpoints in the 30s.
So, the most we can expect with any of the shortwaves is a brief
increase in cloud cover. 

Expect high temperatures to warm a degree or two from Sunday (upper
60s) to Monday (lower 70s). Overnight lows will be in the middle to
upper 30s each night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) 
Issued at 255 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016

As the main trough axis deepens (trailing south from a surface/upper
low moving east into the great lakes region) Monday night into
Tuesday morning, an associated cool front will push east across the
area. New runs are showing some very light showers being produced in
southern/central Mississippi as the front pushes east Monday night.
However, northern Alabama will likely not see the moisture return
that may be seen further southwest, so not expecting any
precipitation. 

Not much cooler air will follow behind the front. However, the
departing front should keep highs in the mid to upper 60s to lower
70s in most locations on Tuesday.

Longer range synoptic models continued to rebuild a strong upper
level ridge behind this front and quickly move it eastward Wednesday
into Thursday. This will lead to a warming trend both days.
Highs in the lower 70s look reasonable on Wednesday. 

By Thursday, both models center this ridge over the Tennessee Valley
and further amplify the ridge over the area. This should allow the
925 mb/850 mb temps to rise to between 15 to 18 degrees. High
temperatures look to respond and jump into the mid 70s on Thursday.
Long range models continue to develop a strong storm system over the
midwestern U.S. Thursday night and into Friday. Latest GFS has
slowed this system down (closer to previous ECMWF model run timing),
as the upper ridge is stronger this run than previous runs with the
GFS. If the approaching system slows down more due to the strong
upper ridge, Friday's highs could climb into the mid 70s as well.

However, the ridge looks too strong for any precipitation ahead of
the front to affect the Tennessee Valley until Friday night into
Saturday. Although, a strong upper level jet and a 30 kt 850 mb jet
is progged by models, thunderstorms look very doubtful, as CAPE and
instability aloft is non-existent. Given the strong forcing with
this system, at least some isolated to scattered showers look
possible though. Unfortunately, unless the upper ridging slows this
system down more (allowing a longer period for moisture return),
rain amounts will be very paltry (less than one half of an inch).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2016

An upper level trough has become centered over the area based on
latest satellite imagery. This has allowed a slight increase in wind
speeds along and south of the TN River but speeds should decrease
through the afternoon and into the evening hours. VFR conditions are
forecast but smoke from wildfires in N GA/E TN will cause some haze. 


&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Stumpf
SHORT TERM...Stumpf
LONG TERM...KTW
AVIATION...Stumpf


For more information please visit our website 
at weather.gov/huntsville.


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 110929
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
329 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT... Forecast confidence is high.

Early morning temperatures were in the lower 40s, and we will not
recover too much today due to steady cold air advection. Highs will
only reach the upper 40s, despite mostly sunny skies. These are
actually the normal high temperatures for this time of year. 

It will be another breezy day, especially this morning. There are
strong winds ongoing right now around 500 to 1000 feet above the
ground. These winds will mix down to the surface as gusts of 25 to
possibly 30 mph starting mid morning. Winds and gusts will be
highest through noon and then gradually taper off through the
afternoon as high pressure noses into the area.

MODIS satellite imagery shows lake surface temperatures around 12C.
We need at least an 8C difference between the lake and 850mb to
start seeing lake effect clouds, along with a decent fetch. These
conditions will be met near southeast WI as winds turn to the north-
northeast later this morning. Expect lake effect clouds over far
southeast WI to linger through the evening before shifting farther
south and dissipating.

Tonight will be the coldest night in southern WI so far this season
and most areas will see a hard freeze. We are not issuing frost or
freeze headlines since we are well past the average time of year to
see the first freezing temperatures. High pressure sliding through
southwest and south central WI will help to create a strong
inversion, calm wind, clear skies, and strong radiational cooling
overnight. Lows will drop into the upper 20s for much of southern
WI. I wouldn't be surprised to see some mid 20s toward Baraboo, Lone
Rock, and areas toward central WI, close to the core of the high
and in this dry air mass.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - Confidence...High
Surface high south of WI will continue to shift southeast this
period which will result in a sustained mild wsw flow with gradual
warming of 850/925 temps. Bufkit column is parched so plenty of
sunshine though breezy at times with a decent pressure gradient in
place between the departed high and approaching Plains trough. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - Confidence...Medium
Shortwave trough swings in from the northwest. Surface/850 trough
also comes through with very little post frontal cooling. Some bump
in 850 dews noted ahead of the surface/850 forcing features though
overall column moistening not looking too impressive. If anything
the NAM and GFS try to moisten up the low levels suggesting that if
anything it would be a drizzle scenario, but overall depth of
moisture not supportive of any POPS at this time. Will leave a dry
forecast intact for now per Superblend guid.

.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - Confidence...Medium 
The pattern remains energized with another mid level trough axis
swinging across the western Great Lakes region. The ECWMF shows
a slightly stronger lead wave than the GFS. Then both show an
elongated/sheared vort axis arriving later Tuesday or Tuesday
night with the GFS keeping any of this energy more north. The GFS
shows a dry scenario while the ECMWF shows shra potential. Will keep
the small Superblend POPS to account for the wetter look of the
ECMWF. 

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - Confidence...Medium
Mid level ridge bumps back up across ahead of next trough moving out
of the Rockies into the Plains. Surface ridge dominates Wednesday
into Wednesday night and then shifts to the east on Thursday which
sets up a return flow ahead of the developing Plains low pressure.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Winds are in the 30 to 40 knot range just above 
the surface early this morning. These winds will be able to mix down
to the ground as gusts of 25 to 30 knots by mid morning. Highest
gusts will be closest to Lake Michigan. Winds and gusts will gradually
taper off during the early afternoon hours as high pressure noses
in.

Some lower VFR lake effect clouds should move into southeast WI by
mid morning as well. There could be some MVFR at times. The main
lake effect cloud band is expected to set up over northeast IL and
clip southeast WI through early evening. A few sprinkles are
possible. Inland areas should see some scattered VFR/MVFR clouds
this morning, but full sunshine will return this afternoon. 

&&

.MARINE...Small Craft Advisory continues through this evening across 
the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan near southeast WI. Gusty north-
northeast winds will build high waves today. Winds will diminish
through the afternoon, and waves will subside from north to south
this evening. I extended the small craft advisory south of the
North Point Light until midnight based on expected lingering
higher waves.

Another Small Craft Advisory may be needed for Saturday night into
Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens once again across the area.
Gusts to 25 knots are possible during this period. Offshore winds
should keep high waves over the open waters.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight CST tonight for LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening for LMZ643-644.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC 
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...Collar


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 071615 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1015 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016

.UPDATE...

Deeper moisture arrives around midnight, so expect lower clouds to
fill in across southern WI. There could be a few sprinkles with
this, as the HRRR and NAMNest models are picking up on some light
pre-frontal precip. 

The main round of rain will hold of until the front arrives from
northwest to southeast between 2 am and 5 am. This will be a quick
shot for rain and not amount to much. Models are trending a little
slower with the arrival of the front.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

South winds ahead of an approaching cold front will gradually
increase the moisture today, with the atmosphere saturating tonight.
This will result in lower VFR cigs from late evening through early
morning out ahead of the front, and then cigs down to IFR along and
just behind the cold front that will be moving through southern
Wisconsin late tonight. Expect a band of showers with the front. IFR
ceilings should persist until around noon Tuesday, and then we can
expect gradual improvement to MVFR and eventually VFR before
clearing from west to east Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Mostly southerly winds expected today as high pressure remains over
the NE CONUS and a cold front approaches from the northern Plains.
This cold front is expected to sweep across the near shore waters
late tonight and Tuesday morning.  Colder air funneling southward
over the relatively warmer Lake MI waters will allow wind gusts to
likely reach 25 knots Tuesday afternoon and evening.  A Small Craft
Advisory may be issued this afternoon for this period.  Lake surface
temperature remains in the 50-55 degree range per recent MODIS
imagery. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 141 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016/ 

TODAY and TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence is high.

A shortwave moving across south central Canada, will drop southeast
across the Lake Superior and Wisconsin area early Tuesday morning. 

Upper level divergence, and 700 mb upward motion begins this
afternoon and through the night. 

850 mb temperatures cool a just a little today. As a result, expect
it to be warm, but temperatures should be a few degrees cooler,
especially as high clouds increase, along with a little increase in
low level/mid moisture.  A cold front moves across southern
Wisconsin late tonight, with showers expected near the front. The
GFS does not have any elevated CAPE, so will not include any
thunderstorm mention in the forecast. 

Patchy fog mainly in river valleys and low areas, should dissipate
rather quickly after sunrise.  With a bit more of a gradient, expect
a little less fog than yesterday.  

TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

The front will be exiting the southeast forecast area Tuesday
morning. Models are in decent agreement now with the front timing,
putting higher confidence in a few lingering showers early in the
day. It should be dry by mid-morning though as high pressure
begins to build in behind the departing system. 

Models are within a couple degrees of each other for high temps,
but do differ for the afternoon. The GFS and NAM are quicker with
the colder air, showing a cooling trend during the afternoon
hours. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and Canadian hold off on the cooler
temps aloft until evening. Generally split the temp differences
for the afternoon hours. 

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

High pressure will move back in for Wednesday, then briefly give
way to a passing trough on Thursday, before returning for the end
of the week into the weekend. Still not seeing enough moisture
and forcing with the trough to warrant pops, so opted to keep the
forecast dry through the weekend.

Temps will remain above normal Wed/Thu, but should return to
around normal behind the trough Friday and Saturday. Southerly
winds between the departing high and an approaching trough should
push temps back to a few degrees above normal on Sunday.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Expect patchy IFR/LIFR ground fog, especially in river valleys and
low areas.  With a little more of a pressure gradient, expect a
little less fog, that will dissipate rather quickly after sunrise. 

South winds ahead of an approaching cold front, will gradually
increase the moisture today, with the atmosphere saturating tonight,
resulting in lower cigs to IFR near a cold front that will be moving
through southern Wisconsin late tonight.  Expect a band of showers
with the front. 

MARINE...

South to Southwest winds will increase today and tonight with a
tightening pressure gradient. A cold front will then push across
lake Michigan around sunrise Tuesday.  Winds will become north and
gusty on Tuesday behind the cold front. North winds/waves will
likely reach Small Craft Advisory levels Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...DDV


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 051952
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 
255 PM CDT SAT NOV 5 2016

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY - Forecast Confidence...High.

The weather pattern will remain the same through Sunday, so only
expect subtle differences to the forecast when compared to the last
two days.

The high pressure ridge will drift toward southern WI a little more
tonight, which means lighter winds just off the surface, which
supports a stronger surface inversion and fog development.

Based on model visibility and a small dewpoint depression, there is
a pretty good chance for dense fog to develop across portions of
southern WI, especially inland from Lake Michigan. We may need a
dense fog advisory headline by later this evening.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - Forecast Confidence...High.

A quiet start to the period as a large high pressure ridge continues
to slide slowly east, away from the western Great Lakes. Upstream
warm air and moisture advection should result in an increase in
clouds on Monday.  Primarily high clouds are expected so another
pleasant day lies ahead with mild temperatures.  May be some ground
fog late Sunday night and early Monday but stronger boundary layer
mixing should keep fog more patchy and visibilities higher. Hence,
will hold off on introducing fog into this period.

Short term guidance continue to come into better agreement on
slightly more amplification to short wave trof passing across the
northern Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday.  Southern extension
of passing wave will interact with a narrow swath of precipitable
water which increases to around 1 inch during the night.  Brief
period of enhanced synoptic forcing tied to right entrance region
over southern WI.  Hence enough moisture and lift in place to
warrant continuing chance pops for -shra overnight.  Mid-level
drying returns quickly on brisk northwest winds on Tuesday, but
lingering cyclonic flow and low level moisture should result in bkn-
ovc cu field returning during the day.  

.EXTENDED PERIOD...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY - Forecast Confidence...High.

Fairly quiet weather can be expected this period with a trend toward
colder, more seasonal temperatures by the weekend. Temperatures
should remain above the seasonal average Wednesday and Thursday as
upper level steering flow remains weakly northwest to zonal as large
high pressure area extends from southwest CONUS into the Upper
Midwest.  

Strong piece of short wave energy ejected from eastern Pacific long-
wave trof will gain in strength and amplitude as it tracks east
across southern Canada early in the extended period. Increasing
amplitude will carry this short wave southeast across the GreatLakes
Thursday night and Friday...along with accompanying surface cold
front. Low to mid-level moisture appears sparse with this passing
disturbance.  No showers expected at this time. A surge of colder
air will follow frontal passage across southern WI on Friday and
Friday night. Medium range guidance in agreement for colder air to
retreat east with some modification over the weekend. Never the
less, looking at a much better chance for more widespread near or
slightly below freezing temps Friday night and possibly Saturday
night. 

Looking more likely that cooler, more seasonal conditions will be
here to stay beginning the week of the 13th, but still no
significant weather systems on the horizon. 

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...Expect areas of fog to develop tonight. There
is a good chance for dense fog, primarily for areas inland from Lake
Michigan. 

&&

.MARINE...Patchy inland fog is expected later tonight which may
drift over to parts of the nearshore areas by sunrise.

Recent MODIS imagery is showing lake surface temperatures in the
lower 50s. With inland temperatures expected to climb into the upper
60s Sunday, expect a lake breeze to develop late Sun morning and
afternoon over the near shore waters.

A small craft advisory may be needed on Tuesday in the wake of a
cold front.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...None.
LM...None.

$$ 
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 051559 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1059 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016

.UPDATE...

Forecast is on track for today, heading up to mid to upper 60s for
highs. Plan on sunny skies and light southwest winds.

Expect areas of fog tonight. There is a pretty good chance for dense
fog to develop, so we will probably need a dense fog advisory
headline by later this evening.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

Expect areas of fog to develop tonight. There is a good chance for
dense fog, primarily for areas inland from Lake Michigan.


&&

.MARINE...

Recent MODIS imagery measuring lake surface temperature in the lower
50s.  With inland temperatures expected to climb into the lower to
middle 60s, and decreasing boundary layer winds to less than 10
knots, expect a lake breeze to develop late this morning and
afternoon over the near shore waters.  The winds should switch back
to the southwest tonight but back to the south to southeast again on
Sunday. Patchy inland fog is expected later tonight which may carry
over parts of the nearshore areas by sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 314 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016/ 

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... Forecast confidence is high.

High pressure centered over the Ohio valley.  Light southwest
winds with a weak lake breeze by afternoon.  Patchy dense fog early
this morning and again Late tonight as winds should be a little
lighter. 

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

High pressure centered to the east of the state will bring
continued pleasant weather Sunday and Monday. Above normal
temperatures will persist into early next week.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Low pressure is progged to drag a cold front through southern
Wisconsin Monday night into early Tuesday. Models in general have
come in with a bit deeper saturation as the front moves through,
so have somewhat higher pops than previously. There are still
uncertainties in timing of the front and strength of forcing
though, so highest pops are just low end chance for now.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

High pressure will be overhead Wednesday, briefly give way to a
passing trough on Thursday, then return behind the the trough on
Friday. Not seeing enough moisture and forcing with the trough to
warrant pops, so opted to keep the forecast dry through the second
half of the work week. 

Temps will still be a bit above normal Wed/Thu...but should return
to around normal behind the trough on Friday.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Areas of ground fog early this morning with a few localized areas
of LIFR, especially in river valleys.

MARINE...

High pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley.  Light
southwest winds with a weak lake breeze by afternoon. 

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz
Sunday THROUGH Friday...DDV


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KLWX 030755
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
355 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build southward into the region
tonight through early Friday. Hurricane Matthew may track along
or offshore the southeast U.S. and mid-Atlantic coasts Thursday
night through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...A few showers have been affecting 
ncntrl and northeast MD during the past couple of hrs, but these
are now moving into the MD eastern shore and Delaware. Showers are
also developing now over Charles county MD. Low clouds and/or fog
have also been developing over eastern WV...nrn and cntrl VA. Fog
is evident over the Shenandoah valley on the latest MODIS- Aqua
nighttime microphysics product. Will monitor fog potential over
the next svrl hrs to see whether a dense fog advzy may be needed
or not.

After morning fog burns and/or low clouds mix out, light NW flow
will take place leading to mostly sunny skies east of the Blue
Ridge and partly cloudy skies west. Subsidence will build in
behind departing trof leading to a nice early fall day with temps
in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...High
pressure will begin to build southward into the area from
northern New England tonight. A stratus layer may develop over
southwest VA late tonight under a northeast flow. Increasing pres
gradient/winds will likely prevent fog from forming. Sfc flow
begins to turn more easterly Tue with low clouds possibly advecting
from the east in the afternoon. Onshore flow strengthens Tue night
into Wed which may result in low clouds and some drizzle along and
east of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge mtns. 

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...High pressure will be in place 
across much of the Mid-Atlantic region and New England Thursday.
Onshore flow will persist and low clouds...drizzle and fog are
possible through Friday. Northeast flow and cloud cover will keep
conditions near normal with max temps in the U60s/L70s through
Saturday.

Hurricane Matthew is expected to be move across the Bahamas at the
end of the work week and continue northward this weekend. There is a
high level of uncertainty regarding the track of the hurricane as it
moves north of the Bahamas this weekend. Please consult the National
Hurricane Center for the most up to date forecasts regarding
Hurricane Matthew. 

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...LIFR conditions possible
at KCHO and KMRB early this morning. Conditions improve to VFR
after 13Z. Stratus clouds possible again tonight in northeast
flow with some cigs restrictions. Higher probs of MVFR/IFR
conditions Tue night and early Wed as onshore flow deepens. 

Flight restrictions possible late this week as onshore flow
persists. 

&&

.MARINE...Winds less than 10 kt through this evening, then begin
to strengthen late tonight through Wed with SCA conditions
possible beginning Tue afternoon which may persist through the end
of the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...No coastal flooding expected through
tonight. Increasing onshore flow Tue and Wed will likely result in
minor coastal flooding at Straits Pt and Annapolis Tue night and
Wed. Water levels may rise further at the end of the week as winds
strengthen as Matthew moves along or offshore the southeast U.S.
and mid-Atlc coasts.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...HSK/LFR
MARINE...HSK/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 250830
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
330 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence - Medium.

Will continue Flash Flood Watch across Sauk and Marquette counties
due to susceptibility to any additional rainfall today.  Short term
guidance in good agreement on surge of column moisture this morning
across southern WI as precipitable water increases one quarter to
one half inch, approaching 2 inches by afternoon.  Upstream front
now located in western MN expected to slowly progress ewd and move
into wrn CWA by late am, and exit ern CWA by early evening.  Best
chance for more numerous showers and storms will be this afternoon
as front and low level frontogenetical forcing moves thru srn WI.
However wl keep in lower pops for more showers this morning as mid-
level moisture increases and upstream weak mid-level short wave
clips srn wi.  Expect anywhere from a tenth to six tenths of an inch
as showers and storms expected to be more progressive over srn WI
compared to upstream overnight scenario, but may still be more
localized higher amounts so continuing Flash Flood Watch. Marginal
Risk warranted as bulk shear to increase to 35 to 40 kts ahead of
passing cold front while MUCape reaches around 1000 j/kg. Sfc
dewpoints likely to increase into the upper 60s this aftn, pooling
along cold front. Expect convection to end rapidly during the early
evening behind front as drier, more stable conditions spread across
srn WI.  

.MONDAY - Confidence...Medium
The surface low is proggd to be situated north of Lake Superior. A
much cooler and drier airmass will be set up as 1000/500
millibar thicknesses drop to near 546DM. The 925 temps will be
are coldest on the GFS...dropping to 7-8C by days end with the NAM
and ECMWF around 10-11c. West winds will make it feel even cooler.
Some of the MOS guidance suggests some parts of the northern CWA
may be lucky to hit 60 for daytime highs. A strongly cyclonic 500
millibar flow will become set up. The first vort lobe passes
through in the morning with the overall circulation becoming
entrenched across the Upper Midwest. Given this regime expect
cloud cover to be fairly widespread with cyclonic flow aloft and
low level thermal trough. For now will keep any shra chances
across the northern CWA but may need to expand these POPS further
south but will keep it in the north at the moment.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - Confidence...Medium
The models are in pretty decent agreement on waffling this 500
millibar low/expansive circulation slowly south through Tuesday
evening and then eastward to the eastern Lakes region/Ohio Valley
on Wednesday. The low level thermal trough will continue to
amplify with 925 temps dropping to 5-8c this period. There will be
an increased chance of showers across mainly the northern and
eastern CWA as the surface/850 lows shift sse from Lake Superior.
This will set up lower level forcing in combination with the mid
level cyclonic flow. So the models are generating mainly light
precip amounts...mainly a tenth or two. The ECWMF shows a little
more enhanced low level troughing later Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.

.THURSDAY - Confidence...Low to Medium
The GFS and GEM solutions show the 500 millibar low across the
eastern Lakes and Ohio valley with the ECMWF showing much less
progression further south and west. In fact it would keep at least
our southern CWA on the northwest periphery of the expansive
circulation. Meanwhile the GFS and GEM has rising heights for us
with surface ridging dominating. Even the ECMWF solution still
keeps us dry though a bit more of a ne wind with a tighter pressure
gradient.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - Confidence...Low
The model divergence becomes more pronounced as it relates to the
positioning of the 500 millibar low. The ECMWF continues a trend
towards retrogression in contrast the more progressive scenario
of the GFS and GEM. The ECMWF drifts the low back towards lower
MI for Saturday and this results in shra being wrapped back into
srn WI. The GFS and GEM show the high dominating. At this time the
Superblend POPS are leaning towards the dry solutions, and will
stick with that route for the time being.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Thickening clouds likely to spread eastward 
this morning with the best chance for showers and a few storms 
affecting TAF sites from late morning through the afternoon. Cigs
should be mainly VFR however may drop to MVFR with any showers or
storms. Better chance for lower cigs late tonight and Monday as
core of coldest air settles over southern WI in tight cyclonic
flow.

&&

.MARINE...Expect increasing south to southeast winds this morning as 
pressure gradient tightens ahead of approaching cold front. Recent
MODIS imagery and nearby buoys measure near shore lake surface
water temperature in the upper 50s to lower 60s while warmer sfc
water in the lower 70s remain offshore. Will continue Small Craft
Advisory today and push start time to mid-morning from Port
Washington north as gusts exceeding 22 knots should start to be
felt at Sheboygan lakeshore later this morning along with building
waves. Counting on cooler lakeshore waters to prevent stronger
gusts from mixing to lake surface farther south today, so wl hold
off on expanding Small Craft Advisory south, however will be close
and caution is advised.

Breezy west to northwest winds will develop late tonight and
continue through Tuesday as much cooler air settles over the Great
Lakes behind passing cold front.  Tight pressure gradient over Lake
Michigan as low pressure passes to the north wl result in the gusty
winds. Wind gusts will get close to Gale levels on Monday, however
confidence in persistent gusts exceeding 33 knots low at this point.
If confidence increases, the first Gale Watch of the season may be
issued later today for Monday into Monday night. 

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening for WIZ046-056.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this 
     evening for LMZ643.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK 
Monday THROUGH Saturday...Collar


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 180156
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
856 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.UPDATE...Stratocumulus deck over west central WI continued to
shrink and dissipate through the early evening as only a few
patches of sct-bkn around 4k feet remain. With a moderate
overnight inversion expected and temperatures falling a few
degreees below the crossover temperature, need to add at least
patchy fog mention to the late night. Lowered temperatures in a
few locations as well. Lingering thermal trof and weak passing
mid-level short wave may cause some cloud redevelopment but low
levels do dry out during the late night, adding to a better chance
of fog development. 

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...Stratocumulus deck continued to shrink and
dissipate through the early evening. Only a few patches of sct-bkn
around 4k feet remain in the vicinity. Thermal trof and weak 5H
wave does pass across srn WI late tonight into early Sunday which
may generate more patchy clouds during the late night. However,
low levels begin to dry out later in the night, so thinking some
patchy fog may develop and affect several taf sites late tonight.
For now due to uncertainty, wl keep the visibility restriction in
the MVFR category. 

&&

.MARINE...Recent MODIS imagery showed upwelling of colder sub-
surface water has taken place over the past day or so. Lake
surface temps have fallen into the 50s. A weak pressure gradient
is expected across southeast WI and lower Lake MI on Sunday. The
combination of the weak pressure gradient and a tighter thermal
gradient should result in a better chance for a lake breeze to
develop near the lake shore by Sunday afternoon. Hence went with
more SE winds. 

&&

.BEACHES...The 2016 Beach Hazard season on Lake Michigan will end
tomorrow, September 18th. The last Recreational Beach Forecast for 
beaches along Lake Michigan from Sheboygan county to Kenosha
county will be issued around 5 pm September 18th. The National
Weather Service Beach Hazard Program will return in May 2017,
shortly before the Memorial Day weekend. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/ 

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

The northern portion of high pressure will build into southern
Wisconsin tonight, then slide southeastward a bit on Sunday. Should
see skies eventually turn mostly clear this evening into tonight as
the high builds in and daytime heating is lost. Should see a lot of
sunshine then on Sunday. 

Could see a little fog develop tonight, the best chance in low lying
areas such as the Wisconsin River valley. Seems like just enough
wind in the lower levels to keep widespread fog from forming. 

Temps tonight and Wednesday will remain a few degrees above normal.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Forecast confidence medium. 

Swly flow and low to middle level warm advection is expected Sun
nt into Mon. This is in response to a 120 kt wly jet stream
becoming established along the US and Canadian border. The nose of
the strong upper jet will drive a strong shortwave trough across
the nrn Plains and nrn Great Lakes. The strongest surge of thetae
advection will be Mon morning followed by the gradual passage of
the cold front for the afternoon and evening. Isolated to
scattered showers and tstorms will be possible with the thetae
advection but more favored storm organization will be along the
cold front. MLCAPEs are expected to climb to 500-1000 joules along
the cold front. Expect the initiation to be near the WI and IL
border with at least scattered coverage. The Marginal Risk by SPC
looks good given the deep layer shear of 40-45 kts. Above normal
temps will continue for the early week with lower to middle 80s on
Mon just ahead of the cold front. 

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...Forecast confidence
medium. 

A low amplitude, but broad upper ridge will shift from the nrn
High Plains to the Great Lakes from Wed to Sat in response to a
large upper trough moving from the wrn USA to the nrn High Plains.
This results in a warm front nosing into srn WI on Wed and
becoming stalled for the remainder of the week. Thus relatively
warm and humid conditions along with good chances of showers and
thunderstorms each day. The cold frontal passage will be Sat or
Sat nt.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Could see MVFR ceilings try and sneak into the northwest this evening
into tonight. High pressure will build overhead tonight, so not out
of the question to see some fog develop later in the night.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will then prevail through Sunday under
high pressure. 

MARINE...

Winds will be lighter under high pressure Sunday. Southwest winds
could approach Small Craft Advisory levels on Monday as the pressure
gradient tightens ahead of approaching low pressure. 

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK
TONIGHT/Sunday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday...Gehring


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KLWX 131430
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1030 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift east from the northern Mid-Atlantic coast
rest of today. A mainly dry cold front will cross the area
Wednesday night. High pressure returns to the area through Friday
before a cold front crosses the area Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low level SWly flow will bring mid to upper teen 850mb temps today
with temperatures a few degrees higher than yesterday...maxima 85
to 90F. Less cloud cover expected tonight with valley/ground fog
possible. Warmer with lows 65 to 70 due to a strengthening Sly flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H85 temps rise to 18-20C and sfc winds become westerly ahead of
cdfnt moving through the eastern Great Lks and New England states.
MOS guidance looks too cool and have used a model trend for MaxT
Wed. Expecting temps to reach the mid 90s with record highs likely
at DCA and IAD. Cdfnt will be moving through the area during the
evening and have kept a slight chance (20% POP) for MD counties
along the Mason- Dixon line. High pressure builds Thu through Fri
with temperatures at least 10 degs cooler Thu. Low clouds expected
to develop behind front Thu and Thu night with some very light
precip over the Blue Ridge mountains due to upslope flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will be located over 
New England on Friday, with upper ridging moving overhead. A
light onshore wind combined with the low level thermal trough axis
passing through may mean Friday is the coolest day of the week
(and dry), as highs may stay below 80F for a large portion of the
area.

The high will move farther east Saturday as a low pressure system
moves into the Great Lakes. Am thinking Saturday remains dry, with
the best chance for any storms over the western terrain where
heights will be lower and there will be a SE upslope component to
the low level flow. It's also possible pre-frontal convection from
the west approaches during the evening or overnight. Otherwise,
increasing temperatures can be expected.

For Sunday-Monday, model spread begins to increase significantly in
how to handle the approaching cold front, upper level energy, and
possible interaction with moisture along the southeast coast. The
00Z ECMWF is flatter with the upper flow and quicker with the front,
whereas the 00Z GFS develops a closed low at 500mb, a wave along the
front, and a slower passage on Monday. Therefore, the forecast will
call for chances of showers and storms through this time period.
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through Wed night. Southerly flow around 10 kt rest of today.
Winds shift west Wednesday gusting around 15 kt ahead of a dry
cold front that crosses Wednesday night. NWly flow gusts around 20
knots Thursday.

MVFR/IFR cigs possible Thu and especially Thu night due to
onshore flow behind fropa.

There is potential for MVFR clouds due to onshore flow Friday and
Saturday mornings, mainly at IAD/MRB/CHO.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds 10 to 15 kt through this evening with high pressure
offshore. Winds expected to strengthen Wed night with SCA
conditions likely Thu through Fri morning.

High pressure will move off the coast Friday into Saturday. Onshore
flow Friday will become southerly on Saturday. Winds may approach
small craft advisory levels by late in the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODIS and VIIRS True color images from yesterday revealed that
significant drying has occurred across northern VA and north
central MD especially in Washington, Frederick and western Loudoun
counties. Record high temperatures likely Wed with Rh's dropping
into the low twenties as winds become westerly. Red flags
conditions are not expected since winds are expected to remain
below criteria, but an elevated fire weather threat will exist due
to low humidities and drying fuels.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Light south flow has raised water levels about one foot above
normal. No coastal flooding is expected with this lesser high tide
during the day today (though Straits Pt and Annapolis will be
close), but is expected for sensitive locations for the preferred
high tide cycle tonight. 

&&

.CLIMATE...
Unseasonably hot weather will return to the area briefly on
Wednesday. Here is a list of record daily high and warm low
temperatures for September 14th.

Washington DC area (Ronald Reagan National Airport, DCA)
Record daily high temperature: 94 (1981, 1980 and 1915)
Record daily high minimum temperature: 75 (2008 and 1961)

Baltimore MD area (Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood
Marshall Airport, BWI)
Record daily high temperature: 94 (1931)
Record daily high minimum temperature: 74 (1915)

Dulles International Airport VA (IAD)
Record daily high temperature: 95 (1998)
Record daily high minimum temperature: 71 (2008)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ/LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/LFR
FIRE WEATHER...lfr/baj
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...baj
CLIMATE...lwx


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 301509 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1009 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.UPDATE...

Shower and thunderstorm activity over northern Illinois is
weakening and moving off to the east this morning. Our southern
forecast area looks to avoid any chances of rainfall this
morning, so removed chance PoPs for our southern counties through
this morning.

Current radar shows evidence of a pre-frontal boundary ahead of
the effective cold front expected to act as the mechanism for
shower and thunderstorm activity later this afternoon. For now,
kept slight chance PoPs in the forecast across our forecast area
due to this pre-frontal boundary. The 30.13z HRRR model isn't
progging any shower/thunderstorm activity until 17z today, so will
maintain chances of thunderstorms in the forecast for the
afternoon. This activity may be out of the area by the evening if
the current HRRR run holds.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

Mainly VFR conditions, with some low-end MVFR/IFR cigs,
especially from the MSN TAF site and points west. Any vsby
reductions from this morning should mix-out as the day goes on.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this afternoon as a
cold front sweeps through S WI. Confidence is not high that all
TAF sites will see TS, so will likely maintain VCTS through the
afternoon. Approximate timing for thunderstorms looks to be
between 17z and 00z today.

Look for a brief period of gusty north to northeast winds for
eastern locations as the cold front moves through, with a brief
period of 15 to 20 kt winds.

&&

.MARINE...

Light wind flow regime to continue today, however less onshore winds
expected. West to southwest winds will turn more south to southeast
for a time as lake breeze develops today. However outflow
boundary from early morning convection continues to move southeast
and will affect Sheboygan to Port Washington marine zone, and
possible next marine zone southward for a few hours late this
morning and early afternoon. Besides possibly setting off a shower
or storm, the outflow boundary will result in an hour or two of
more west to northwest winds before becoming more south to
southeast once again.

Recent MODIS imagery measured lake surface temperatures in the mid
to upper 60s over most of the near shore waters, which is about 5 to
10 degrees warmer than over the weekend. Hence less threat for
dense fog. Main cold front over northern WI will sweep thru near
shore waters tonight. Winds will abruptly shift to the north to
northeast and increase. RAP and NAM now showing a 1-3 hour period
of gusty north to northeast winds exceeding 22 knots overnight
across northern Marine zones, while latest GFS soundings not as
windy. For now, planning on holding off on Small Craft Advy and
think Marine Weather Statements may be needed for the overnight
brief period of gusty winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/ 

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Band of showers and storms sagging south through nw WI and east-
central MN ahead of pre-frontal surface trough in region of weak 925
and 850 mb frontogenesis and differential CVA ahead of a vorticity
maximum south of main short wave trough tracking east across nrn
Ontario. The strongest cells in east-central MN are riding the
outflow boundary south-southwest along corridor of richer lower-
level moisture pooling ahead of the 925 mb trough within a pocket of
modest mid-level lapse rates around 7C/km. The showers/storms to the
east are diminishing as outflow races out ahead with only an
isolated shower or storm quickly popping up and dying along the
boundary.

Other showers and storms are re-firing over northern Illinois ahead
of a weak vort max/MCV within region of nearly stationary moisture
convergence and moving east just south of the border. A few light
showers within region of differential CVA with this feature are
crossing western sections of the CWA.

Will have slight chance/low chance PoPs in the southern forecast
area this morning to account for the potential of the southern band
of showers/storms in IL slipping into southern WI. Then chance PoPs
this afternoon with the weak forcing along the cold front, tapering
off from northwest to southeast this evening as the front moves
through. Could see some gusty north-northeast winds along the lake
as hi-res models indicate the front moving a bit faster down the
lake versus inland, with a brief period of 15 to 20 knot winds
within 1k ft of the surface right behind the front.  

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY - Confidence...Medium to High
Cold advection regime sets up Wednesday into Thursday as low
level thermal trough becomes established across the area. We will
be situated on western side of evolving mid/upper level
trough across the NE US. The NAM and GEM are more pronounced with
a glancing shortwave riding sewd in this flow while the GFS and
ECMWF keep this wave further east. 925 temps will settle into the
low to mid teens celsius. So a much cooler and more comfortable/drier
airmass this period. The mid level ridge axis starts to slide
across WI on Friday.

SATURDAY - Confidence...Medium to High
The surface high shifts well to the east though the expansive
anticyclonic influence lingers into srn WI. So another quiet day in
the works. The mid level ridge shifts east as well so we start to
see a more southwest flow at 500 millibars. The 925 temps bounce
back a bit due to a switch to a more southerly low level
trajectory.

SUNDAY - Confidence...Medium
The southerly low level flow strengthens further with 925 temps
rising into the low 20s celsius. The 500 millibar flow remains
southwest with the GFS is a bit more robust on the shortwave
activity riding through. Other models are weaker with this feature
and with a track more to our northwest. Primary cyclogenesis and
frontal convergence remains well to our west. While core of
strongest 850 jet remains across IA/ern MN and nw WI there is an
eastward extension of this jet with some moist advection and the
wave that suggests the Superblend pops are onto something for our
western CWA so will leave them as is for now. 

LABOR DAY - Confidence...Low 
Differences arise with the GFS building ridge axis north keeping
things less progressive on the shortwave energy front. meanwhile the
ECMWF shows things moving along with frontal system and band of
convection. The GFS implies a more east/west oriented frontal
boundary laying across central WI with still some convective chances
here but this scenario would suggest more scattered activity while
the ECMWF solution shows more widespread shra/tsra with the cold
frontal passage. Given the range of solutions will stick with the
Superblend guidance for now.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Mid level cloud deck has limited extent of fog
coverage overnight and have adjusted TAFs for a more optimistic vsby
forecast in the near term. Mainly VFR conditions expected through
the forecast, though expect scattered showers and storms to develop
along a weak cold front this afternoon and evening, pushing southeast
of the forecast area between 09Z and 12Z Wednesday. Will keep pcpn
mention as vicinity for now, though MVFR cigs/vsbys with any
showers/storms that reach TAF sites. Looking for a brief period of
gusty north to northeast winds at far eastern locations with cold
front moving a bit faster down Lake Michigan versus inland, with a
brief period of 15 to 20 knot winds within 1k ft of the surface
right behind the front.

MARINE...Looking at potential of a few showers or thunderstorms 
slipping north into the southern marine zones this morning, but
scattered showers and storms will hold off until this afternoon
and evening as a cold front drops through the region. Looking for
a brief period of gusty north to northeast winds with cold front
moving a bit faster down Lake Michigan versus inland, with a brief
period of 15 to 20 knot winds within 1k ft of the surface right
behind the front. This will build wave heights to 2 to 4 feet by
Wednesday morning. North winds and waves will approach Small Craft
Advisory levels Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTS/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
Wednesday THROUGH Monday...Collar


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 291657 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1157 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.UPDATE...

Scattered showers with middle to high clouds continue to develop
to the southwest of the area, and push toward the far western
counties. Weak differential cyclonic vorticity advection and some
weak 850 mb moisture pooling helping generate these showers. These
may hold together enough to make it into the far western and
southwestern parts of the area into this afternoon. Added some
POPs to these areas during this period. Enough mean layer CAPE
should develop to bring a few thunderstorms as well. 

Outflow boundary from storms to the north also pushing southward
toward the area. This was helping produce some showers to the
north, but not much development has been seen in the past hour.
Will watch this for additional isolated shower/storm development
into this afternoon in the northern counties.

Middle to high clouds may continue to push east across the
southern and central portions of the area this afternoon. Not much
confidence here with trends, though the 500 mb relative humidity
fields on models do show these clouds hanging around the southern
half of the area into tonight. 

Will add more clouds to the south and central portions of the
area during this time. This may affect highs this afternoon in
those areas, so lowered temperatures a few degrees.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

Middle to high clouds should spread across a good portion of the
area this afternoon into tonight. May see scattered to broken
diurnal cumulus development as well, in case the higher clouds
do not make it all the way across the area. An isolated shower or
storm may affect Madison this afternoon, though not enough
confidence to mention in TAFs at this time. Light east to
southeast winds are expected.

Small chances for showers/storms are forecast for tonight, with a
better chance Tuesday into Tuesday evening with a cold front
passing southeast through the area. Will carry mainly VFR category
ceilings and visibilities into Tuesday, with a possible vicinity
thunder mention Tuesday afternoon. Any storms should be scattered
in nature, with brief heavy rain and MVFR/IFR visibilities
possible. 

May see light fog later tonight into early Tuesday morning, with
light winds and a moist airmass lingering. Presence of middle to
high clouds may limit dense fog chances to low lying areas. Winds
will become southwest to west on Tuesday, remaining rather light.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...

Recent MODIS imagery from Sunday continued to show the effect of
recent upwelling of cooler waters in the nearshore waters. MODIS
estimated lake surface temperatures mostly in the low to mid 60s,
while mid-lake temperatures were measured in the low to mid 70s.

Light wind regime will continue through tonight. Onshore winds of
mostly 5 to 10 knots are expected today, becoming offshore
tonight. Lingering warm, humid air over cooler near shore waters
should continue to produce patchy fog and haze until cold front
passes through Tuesday night.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 300 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/ 

TODAY and TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

A moderate zonal upper flow extends across Wisconsin today with
a weak ridge trying to briefly build into the south toward evening.
Weak upper divergence this afternoon and into tonight. Little in the
way of any 700 mb upward motion until later tonight. Southern
Wisconsin in in the northern fringe of a mid level ridge with an 850
mb ridge across the southern Great Lakes. Weak 850/700 mb winds. 

700 mb RH remains low but does increase late tonight, especially
south.  850 mb dewpoints are around 15 Celsius south and west of
Madison but only around 3 Celsius near Lake Michigan.  As a result
there is a tight gradient of Zero to 1 km CAPE this afternoon from
around 1100 Joules/kg along the Illinois border and west of Madison
to less than 150 Joules/KG near Sheboygan.  

Patchy dense fog is possible, but more clouds and a weak wind
has limited a lot of the fog to mainly northeast areas. 

Any dense Fog should mix out by mid/late morning, which should give
mainly scattered cumulus, and a warm day. Light winds will become
easterly during the afternoon near Lake Michigan. However the GFS
has a cap around 20 Joules/kg just below 850 mb with fairly dry air
above. RAP soundings have the cap weakening. Surface based CAPE is
around 2200 Joules/kg, so an isolated thunderstorm is possible in
the high CAPE region, but lack of forcing will limit the
possibility.  

There will be a small chance of thunderstorms tonight as upper
forcing increases a little along with column moistening and elevated
CAPE is around 1000 Joules/kg. 

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - Confidence...Medium 
Warm and humid airmass will be in place ahead of frontal boundary
dropping in from the north. Mid level flow will be from the
northwest with no pronounced shortwave within the flow. However the
250 jet strengthens a bit just to our north with some divergence
noted with this jet segment that is proggd to be situated ahead of
the mid/upper level trough axis. Low level forcing will contribute
to a good deal of this lift with the absence of the mid level
shortwave. ECMWF MLCAPE progd to rise to near 1000 j/kg. 0-6km Bulk
shear and 700/500 lapse rates are not impressive. However the
instability combined with the surface/850 lift should be enough to
get some storms going with SPC having the CWA in a Marginal Risk at
this time. Still some uncertainty on convective evolution and timing
with various solutions in this regard. Quite the disparity in the
MOS POPs as well with the NAM showing a dry bias and the GFS a wet
one. Will use the Superblend approach for now in the handling of the
POPs. The cooler post-frontal airmass arrives later Tuesday night as
winds turn decidedly from the north and northeast with some
gustiness expected esp in the eastern CWA in closer proximity to
Lake Michigan. 

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY - Confidence...Medium
A cool pattern sets up with srn WI situated on western periphery of
large scale upper trough across the eastern Lakes/NE US. Low level
thermal trough showing some chilly temps at 850/925. In fact, seeing
some single digit celsius readings at 850 Wednesday night into
Thursday. Given the warm lake waters and the cooler 850 temps seeing
some delta t values into the teens so at least supportive of a bit
more cloud cover. For now will keep any mention of lake effect
sprinkles/shra out of forecast, but something to monitor for later
Wednesday night into Thursday when combo of favorable onshore traj
overlaps with peak min values within low level thermal trough. By
Friday the cool starts to ease with 588Dm mid level ridge sliding
across. 

SATURDAY - Confidence...Medium
Appears that the influence of the mid level ridge will hold with a
return flow setting up in the low levels. The progs are showing a
southerly flow that results in further modification of the low level
thermal profile. 

SUNDAY - Confidence...Low to Medium
Mid level ridge axis shifts to the east of WI with a southwest
regime taking hold. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a negative tilted
shortwave traversing western/northern WI with some DCVA affecting
the CWA. The 00z ECMWF keeps precip to our west with the wave while
the 00z GFS shows this spreading into the northwest CWA. Will retain
the Superblend approach which shows the better potential in the
northwest CWA. Southerly low level flow strengthens further with 925
temps rising to near 20c.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...With a bit more surface pressure gradient than 
last night, that is keeping surface winds in the 5 knot range in
the west, and some high clouds, widespread dense fog formation is
still uncertain. Some dense fog is beginning to develop in the
northeast with lesser surface winds. Should see IFR/LIFR conditions
in northeast areas and patchy LIFR in river valleys elsewhere
until 14-15Z. VFR conditions expected after the fog lifts through
the end of the forecast. Scattered cumulus around 4 thsd ft this
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon over
south central Wisconsin and across the forecast area tonight.

MARINE...Light easterly winds and a moist boundary layer brings 
prospects for fog back to the nearshore waters early this morning.
Web cams are not showing much fog at this time near shoreline.
Will keep mention of areas of fog but no marine fog advisory at
this time. Winds veer to the southeast...today...then south and
southwest late tonight with the approach of a surface trough. Wind
speeds and wave heights will remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through tonight.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wood/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...Collar


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 282037
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 
335 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium.

Mainly scattered diurnal cumulus should linger until sunset, with
light easterly winds. Any convection to the south and southwest of
the forecast area will remain in those areas into this evening.

High pressure will slide slowly to the east tonight into Monday.
Decoupling winds and dew points remaining in the 60s should lead to
another good chance for fog later tonight into Monday morning, with
dense fog possible. Went with areas of fog, with patchy dense fog,
in the forecast for later tonight into early Monday morning. 

More widespread dense fog is possible during this period, with not a
whole lot changing from last night. May see some low stratus
development with the fog as well. A headline may be needed by later
shifts for dense fog later tonight into early Monday morning. 

It may take awhile during the morning hours for the fog and any low
stratus to dissipate across portions of the area. Things should
become partly sunny by the afternoon, with some diurnal cumulus
development in the warm and humid airmass. Went with highs in the
mid 80s inland, with mid 70s to around 80 lakeside. 

Any convection Monday afternoon should remain south and southwest of
the area, as there is not much in the way of forcing for upward
vertical motion over the forecast area. Some uncertainty here, but
left the forecast dry for now.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium.

Focus of this period on small chance for convection developing ahead
and along cold front that will be moving through southern WI Tue
aftn/eve.  Column moisture will remain in place until the front
moves through, with precipitable water values remaining 1.25 to 1.5
inches.  Synoptic scale forcing remains weak Monday night through
Tuesday night.  Thinking best chance for convection will be Tuesday
into early Tue evening when some increase in upper level divergence
affects southern WI due to strengthening right entrance region of
upper jet.  0-6km bulk shear to remain weak, below 20 kts, however
Cape likely to increase to over 1500 j/kg. 

Some concern over weakly channeled vorticity spreading into southern
WI later Monday night at the same time as some weak low level
moisture flux convergence in the area.  Added schc pops west of
Madison for late in the night.  

Drier and less humid air will settle in late Tue night and Wed
behind departing cold front.  Cooler temperatures are expected
beginning Wednesday.  High temps likely to remain in the 70s on
Wednesday.  

.EXTENDED PERIOD...

WEDENSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium
to High.

Good consistency and agreement in Medium Range guidance showing more
amplified weather pattern developing mid-week and persisting into at
least the start of the holiday weekend.  Amplifying longwave
troffing over eastern Pacific and western CONUS will move slowly
eastward later in the week.  Downstream blocking ridge will expand
into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes which will result in
dry and comfortable conditions for much of this extended period.  A
reinforcing push of cooler air in strengthening northwest flow will
drop 925h temps into the 12 to 16C range on Thu and Fri. Pending
sunshine, daytime temps may only peak in the low to mid 70s both
days, with warmer temps returning over the weekend. A few low spots
may fall below 50 Thursday night.

Tropical system still expected to affect southeast CONUS slowing
down steering level pattern change across Upper Midwest over the
weekend.  Hence upstream ejection of mid-level short wave from long
wave trof delayed in helping to flatten ridge and may not bring a
chance for precipition to southern WI until Sat night or Sunday.
However, noticed 12z ECMWF not nearly as amplified with this feature
crossing FL late in the week. Will watch other medium range guidance
to see if this trend continues. Enjoy the great weather this
upcoming week!

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Scattered diurnal cumulus should dissipate by early evening across
TAF sites. VFR conditions should prevail for a time this evening,
with light winds.

Another round of fog, with dense fog possible, should occur by later
this evening into Monday morning. High pressure moving slowly east
of the area will bring light/calm winds once again, with a moist
airmass lingering. Visibilities below alternate minimums, down to
1/2 to 1 mile, seem reasonable between 06Z and 14Z Monday. It may
begin earlier than that. 

1/4 mile or less visibilities are possible with dense fog, but may
leave out of 00Z TAFs for now, until better handle on timing and
areal extent is attained. May also see low stratus develop with the
fog, with very low ceilings near airport minimums. Some uncertainty
here as well, so will keep any low clouds scattered for now.

Once the fog and low stratus mix out by late morning on Monday, the
rest of the day should be VFR category, with scattered to broken
diurnal cumulus cloud development. Light southeast to south winds
are expected.

&&

.MARINE...

Nearshore waters will remain in a light wind regime through Monday.
Moist air over the cool nearshore waters will result in periods of
fog, possibly into Monday night. Best shot will be later tonight
into Monday morning, and again Monday night. 

MODIS satellite imagery of sea surface temperatures still show mid
to upper 50s lake temperatures in the nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan along the Sheboygan and Ozaukee County shoreline, with
lower to mid 60s south of there. Given the mid 60s dew points
expected later tonight into Monday morning, there should be fog,
with patchy dense fog. More widespread dense fog may develop, and a
headline may be needed in later forecasts.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...None.
LM...None.

$$   
TONIGHT AND MONDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...Wood 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...Kavinsky


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 281554 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1054 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.UPDATE...

Area of low stratus and fog still hanging around from west to east
across the central portions of the forecast area. This should
continue to slowly erode and mix out into the early afternoon
hours, as daytime heating continues. May still see some scattered
to broken diurnal cumulus development, though not confident in
this occurring. 

High pressure will slide east across the area today, then slowly to
the east tonight into Monday. Decoupling winds and dew points
remaining in the 60s should lead to another good chance for fog
later tonight into Monday morning, with dense fog possible. Will
continue to evaluate potential, and the need for a headline.

Easterly winds are expected this afternoon near Lake Michigan,
which will keep temperatures there a little cooler than inland. As
long as low clouds mix out early this afternoon, highs should get
into the upper 70s to lower 80s inland, per 925 mb temperatures.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

Fog and low stratus clouds should gradually mix out by early
afternoon across Madison, Waukesha and Milwaukee, with VFR
conditions expected this afternoon. Winds will become easterly at
the eastern sites this afternoon, and southeast at Madison. May
see scattered to broken diurnal cumulus develop, but uncertainty
exists with this occurring. 

Another round of fog, with dense fog possible, should occur by
later this evening into Monday morning. High pressure moving
slowly east of the area will bring light/calm winds once again,
with a moist airmass lingering. Visibilities below alternate
minimums, down to 1/2 to 1 mile, seem reasonable between 06Z and
14Z Monday. It may begin earlier. 

1/4 mile or less visibilities are possible with dense fog, but
may leave out of 18Z TAFs for now, until better handle on timing
and areal extent is attained. May also see low stratus develop
with the fog, with very low ceilings near airport minimums.

Once the fog and low stratus mix out by middle to late morning on
Monday, the rest of the day should be VFR category with scattered
to broken diurnal cumulus cloud development.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...

Nearshore waters will remain in a light wind regime through
Monday. Moist air over the cool nearshore waters will result in
periods of fog, possibly into Monday night. 

Enough breaks in the clouds last night to get a MODIS snapshot of
the lake surface temps around 07z. Lake surface temps at the time
were mostly in the mid 50s to mid 60s, with a cool spot in the
lower 50s offshore of the Ozaukee/Sheboygan county line. Surface
dew points wl remain in the 60s, resulting in areas of fog.

Light and variable winds will turn light onshore late this
morning and early afternoon, and then veer back to predominantly
offshore tonight. The fog may become dense tonight.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/ 

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence is medium.

A strong shortwave just north of Lake Superior will move east
northeast with Southern Wisconsin in the right entrance region of
the weakening upper jet as it moves off into southeast Canada. 
Then a weak zonal flow extends across southern Wisconsin tonight. 
Little in the way of any 700 mb upward motion until towards
sunrise in areas northwest of Madison. 

700 mb west winds diminish this morning and remain light through
tonight as a weak 700/850 mb ridge builds back across southern
Wisconsin.  700 mb RH remains low but does increase a little north
areas late tonight. 

Dense Fog should mix out by mid/late morning, which should give
mainly scattered cumulus, and a warm day. Light winds will become
easterly during the afternoon near Lake Michigan. 

Forecast soundings show zero to 1 km CAPE increases to around 700
Joules/kg this afternoon, but has a cap around 850 mb, along with
dry air above the cap.  Therefore do not expect much potential for
showers.  limited moisture below the cap and this dries tonight.

As a result expect fog potential again tonight.

MONDAY - Confidence...Medium
Surface high shifts a bit to the east into the eastern Lakes. 850
high proggd vcnty of se WI or ne IL. Light wind regime likely to
allow for some morning fog. 591DM broad mid level ridging is
expected. So will keep POPS quiet...in the single digits per MOS.
925 temps rise just a smidge into the lower 20s celsius with a
better hint of a return flow. 

TUESDAY - Confidence...Medium
Surface/850 boundary expected to focus a chance of shra/tsra. Mid
level flow becomes more cyclonic from the northwest though better
vorticity resides to the northeast and southwest of the CWA. So
expect low level convergence acting upon instability axis ahead of
the front to be the primary focus mechanism for convection. Main
cool push arrives Tuesday night as 925 winds turn northwest and
eventually northeast.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY - Confidence...Medium
Shaping up to be a rather quiet with dominating surface high. Low
level thermal trough will be in place with 925 temps both Thursday
and Friday in the low to mid teens celsius. Surface high shifts east
on Saturday to allow for a return flow and a moderation in the 925
thermal pattern to the upper teens or lower 20s celsius.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Widespread IFR/LIFR in fog/stratus expected 
early this morning. Vsbys will improve to VFR with morning mix-out
by mid/late morning. Winds will be light through the period with
low-level moisture bringing another good chance for fog by
midnight tonight into Monday morning.

MARINE...Will see areas of fog as high low-level moisture moves 
over the cooler waters of the lake trough early morning. Expect
light east winds by afternoon.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wood/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz
Monday THROUGH Saturday...Collar


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 261709 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.UPDATE...

Extensive area of middle to high clouds continues to slide
northeast into the area. This should continue this afternoon into
this evening, with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected. There
may be some diurnal cumulus in the sunnier areas as well. Lake
breeze already occurring around Milwaukee and south, and will
continue this afternoon. 

Scattered showers continue to fall apart as they approach the
area from the southwest, as there is a good amount of dry air
below 10000 feet above ground level. Thus, any shower activity
should hold off this afternoon.

12Z model runs continue to differ somewhat with the location of
the low level jet nose and focused warm air advection tonight into
Saturday morning. The NAM is the furthest to the northwest of the
area, with the Canadian focused over the area, and the GFS
between them. All models do bring some QPF across the area later
tonight into Saturday morning. 

The mesoscale models are showing a similar trend with bringing a
round of showers and storms through the area later tonight into
early Saturday morning. Thus, will continue the higher end POPs
for this period, perhaps raising them up to categorical in at
least the western counties.

Precipitation chances Saturday afternoon are still rather murky,
as it will depend on clouds clearing the area after the warm front
moves to the north. There will be modest deep layer bulk shear
with weak to modest mean layer CAPE, assuming some clearing of the
clouds. 

There will still be some upper divergence from the right rear
quadrant of the 250 mb jet streak lingering, and some of the
mesoscale models develop isolated to scattered convection in or
west of the area later in the afternoon. Marginal severe risk and
marginal heavy rainfall risk exists in parts of the area Saturday.
For now, will continue chance POPs for the afternoon hours.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and evening across TAF
sites. Lake breeze this afternoon will turn winds east to
southeast at Milwaukee and Kenosha, probably reaching Waukesha as
well. Light and variable winds are expected at Madison. Some
diurnal cumulus is possible in the sunnier areas this afternoon.

Otherwise, middle to high clouds will gradually thicken through
the afternoon and evening. Should see a period of on and off
showers and thunderstorms later tonight into early Saturday
morning across TAF sites, as warm and moist air pushes north into
the area with a warm front. Should see MVFR ceilings and
visibilities at times, down to around 1000 feet and 3 miles. 

Winds will become easterly by later tonight, gradually veering
south to southeast on Saturday. Should see a lull in the
precipitation later Saturday morning into the afternoon. May see
more scattered showers and storms later Saturday afternoon into
the evening, but too uncertain at this time to mention in TAFs.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...

Light wind regime will result in northwest winds turning onshore
late this morning and early afternoon. Wind speeds will remain in
the 5 to 10 knot range, with lower wave heights. 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected to affect
the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan late tonight into Saturday
morning. Warm and more humid air will return to the region.

Recent offshore winds continued to reinforce colder upwelling
waters in the shallower nearshore waters. Atwater Beach buoy
measuring a lake surface temperature of 48 degrees, while recent
MODIS imagery measured lake surface temps in the 50s across the
nearshore waters, while mid-lake temps remain in the lower 70s.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/ 

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence is medium.

High pressure will move across WI today although scattered to broken
cirrus will occur due to swly flow aloft and the upstream
convection. The high clouds will probably keep temps down a degree
or two along with an afternoon lake breeze as well. Highs in the mid-
upper 70s for today. 

For tonight, a shortwave trough will track from NE to srn MN. A wave
of low pressure will follow into IA with a sly 30 kt LLJ moving into
srn WI. The models differ on the exact placement of the LLJ with
some focusing farther west than others. Confidence is such to go
with likely PoPs over south central WI with high chance PoPs in ern
WI. PWs will rise to 1.5-1.8 inches with the thetae advection while
elevated CAPE will be very minimal due to mid level lapse rates of
5.5-6.0 C/KM. The showers and storms that do occur should have
moderate to heavy rainfall rates but will likely be brief. 

SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Showers/storms will be likely across southern Wisconsin Saturday
as the first wave lifts northward. This first round may be limited
to the morning...with a break possible late morning into the
afternoon between waves. Another wave may then bring more storms
late afternoon into the evening. Overall, models not in great
agreement with timing and placement of convection. Though
confidence is on the higher end that there will be showers/storms
on Saturday, not nearly as confident in the timing at this point.

Should see near normal temps on Saturday. 

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast confidence...Medium

Deeper moisture will be south of the area on Sunday, so went
mainly dry. Should be a pleasant day. 

Near zonal flow Monday will transition to northwest flow between a
ridge building to the west and an upper low passing through well
to the northeast. Could see a couple weak waves move through the
forecast area...so kept some pops going into mid-week.

By Wednesday, the ECMWF and Canadian push the bulk of moisture
and instability south and west of the forecast area. The GFS
remains moist and unstable Wed and Thu. Kept some pops per the
GFS, but would be dry if the ECMWF/Canadian solutions pan out.

Should see temps a bit above normal through Tuesday. There is less
certainty beyond that due to the previously mentioned model
differences for Wed/Thu. Generally kept temps in between the
warmer GFS and cooler ECMWF/Canadian solutions. 

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions today and this evening with only sct-bkn cirrus today
with a mid level deck of clouds for the evening. After midnight,
scattered to numerous showers and tstorms are expected to develop as
a warm front approaches from the sw. Cigs will lower and may become
MVFR toward sunrise or afterward. Cigs and vsbys will be reduced
with any showers and storms. 

MARINE...

Relatively light winds and low wave heights are expected for today
and the weekend over the western shore of Lake MI. A lake breeze is
expected this afternoon with esely winds continuing tonight and
Saturday. 

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wood/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...DDV


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 220832
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
332 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is High.

A quiet period is expected through tonight. Low level ridge axis
will shift to the east this morning, allowing low level winds to
increase from the south. Plenty of sunshine and south winds will
result in a warmer day, with temperatures recovering back to
around seasonal normals for mid-August.

Winds will veer to the south to southeast by Lake Michigan this
afternoon, causing temperatures at the shore to stabilize, and
likely even slip a few degrees, due to cooler nearshore waters.

Low level jet will be focused to the west today, and to the north
tonight, as mid-level high pressure ridge builds briefly back
into the region. Possible some mid or high clouds may graze
southern WI this aftn and tonight, as warm air and mid-level
moisture surges in from the Central Plains.

Despite light boundary layer winds over western CWA, and low
dew point depressions, seeing very little fog development on
webcams and surface observations. Hence wl confine fog mention to
WI River valley, and far west closer to low level ridge axis
early this morning.

.TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models remain in good agreement with showing a 500 mb ridge
sliding northeast through the region on Tuesday. A tightening
pressure gradient should result in increasing south winds. High
pressure will remain to the southeast of the region. This should
continue to bring warmer air into the region. Area forecast
soundings are still fairly dry on Tuesday, so kept forecast dry.
May see winds back southeast along the lake in the afternoon.

Models then are in decent agreement with bringing a 500 mb
shortwave trough northeast into Wisconsin late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. In addition, a low level jet nose at 850 mb
points into eastern Iowa into northern Illinois later Tuesday
night, before weakening and shifting to the east Wednesday
morning. 

Area forecast soundings show a quick moistening of the air column
late Tuesday night, lingering into Wednesday morning. There is
some elevated CAPE with modest deep layer shear. Increased POPs
into likely category by Wednesday morning across most of the area.

Cold front then moves east through the region Wednesday afternoon
and evening, then off to the east by later Wednesday night.
Frontogenesis response with the front is fairly weak during this
time. Still, adjusted area forecast soundings show some mean
layer CAPE again, with modest deep layer shear. 

Continued likely POPs into the afternoon, with POPs lowering
Wednesday night. Precipitation during this time may be more
scattered in nature, with the weaker upward vertical motion
fields.

Storm Prediction Center has area in Marginal Risk for severe
storms on Wednesday/Wednesday night. Given the modest deep layer
shear and modest CAPE, this seems reasonable. However, any cloud
cover with the precipitation may limit CAPE values. 

In addition, heavy rainfall may be possible during this time, as
several parameters are favorable. Precipitable water values reach
2.00 inches on both NAM and GFS for Wednesday. A lot will depend
on how unstable it gets, as well as how strong the shear and
storm propagation gets. Warm and humid conditions are expected.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

GFS/ECMWF are showing cold air advection behind the front for
Thursday, with high pressure pushing east across the region
Thursday night and Friday. This should bring a period of quiet
weather, with less humid conditions. 

These models then bring a 500 mb shortwave trough northeastward
into Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Sunday, with southwest
flow across the region Friday night into Saturday night. Most of
the QPF with the warm air advection remains just west of the area
Friday night, then shifts into the area Saturday into Sunday. 

For now, will continue to have POPs for showers and storms for
most of this period. Friday night may end up dry, if the models
continue to trend westward with QPF and forcing for upward
vertical motion during that period. Warm and humid conditions
should prevail during this time.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions expected for the period. Some light fog may affect
TAF sites early this morning, but any visibility restriction will
be brief, not more than an hour or two. Better boundary layer
mixing should prevent significant fog later tonight, despite
slightly higher low level relative humidity.

&&

.MARINE...

A quiet period through Tuesday, with winds turning onshore late
this morning or early afternoon. With the backing winds, Lake
Michigan lake surface temperatures should rebound back into the
mid 60s to lower 70s, as the cooler upwelling waters currently in
the nearshore waters gradually warm. 

MODIS image from Sunday evening measured the lake surface
temperature anywhere from the mid 50s at the shore off of Ozaukee
and Sheboygan counties, to the upper 60s toward the open waters.

Tightening pressure gradient ahead of a cold front will cause
increasing south to southeast winds Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Gusts will approach Small Craft Advisory levels during this
period.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...Wood


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 210831
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
331 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Weak low pressure trof rotating around departing southern Canada
low pressure, and low level cold air surge, will bring a period
of lower clouds to southern WI this morning. A light shower or
sprinkle may affect northeast CWA. Weak forcing slides off to the
east late this morning. 

However, sct-bkn cumulus likely to redevelop in lingering moist,
cyclonic flow. May be just enough instability to set off a few
isold -shra over ern CWA in the early to mid aftn. Otherwise,
cyclonic flow flattens late today into tonight, as upper level
jet axis shifts east of the area, and thermal trof slides off to
the east as well. 

Hence, expect mostly clear skies for tonight. Boundary layer
winds will weaken enough to allow patchy fog to develop over far
western areas late tonight, with widespread fog in the WI river
valley. Clouds and cooler air in place will hold daytime temps
peaking in the low to mid 70s, with 50s tngt.

.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are in decent agreement with trends Monday into Tuesday.
Zonal flow at 500 mb transitions into a ridge during this period.
At the surface, high pressure southeast of the region allows for
south to southwest winds to develop, as the pressure gradient
tightens somewhat. This brings some warm air advection into the
region. Area forecast soundings remain fairly dry during this
period. Thus, quiet weather with warming temperatures and
increasing dew points are expected during this time.

Models show a little more uncertainty for Tuesday night, as they
differ on the timing with the next 500 mb shortwave trough sliding
northeast into the region. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF bring this feature
into southwest Wisconsin by 12Z Wednesday with light QPF in the
western counties. The Canadian is slower amd keeps the area dry.
Area forecast soundings show moisture advection into the region
helping bring a rather moist adiabatic lapse rate profile, with
some modest elevated CAPE. Continued to bring in chance POPs for
Tuesday night in forecast.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

The GFS/ECMWF bring the 500 mb shortwave trough northeast through
the region Wednesday morning, with the cold front sliding east
through the area later Wednesday into Wednesday night, exiting to
the east Thursday. GFS forecast soundings showing decent mean
layer CAPE at times, with steadily increasing deep layer shear as
the front approaches the area. 

Continued the consensus POPs for thunder Wednesday into Wednesday
night, then lowering Thursday with some lingering showers. Warm
and humid conditions are expected during this period.

High pressure should then build into the region Thursday night
into Friday night, bringing less humid conditions and a period of
quiet weather. Chances for precipitation return Saturday, with
next system shifting northeast into the region. More uncertainty
exists this far out in the forecast, so stayed close to consensus
POPs and temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Period of MVFR cigs likely to affect TAF sites this morning, as
low pressure short wave trof moves southeast through srn WI. Small
chance for a brief light shower or sprinkle, mainly north of TAF
sites. Expect sct-bkn cu to reform for several hours, after weak
short wave forcing slides southeast of the area later this
morning. Hence, not expecting significant clearing until mid
afternoon or later.

&&

.MARINE...

Will continue Small Craft Advisory through mid-morning. Still
receiving recent observations of west to northwest wind gusts of
20 to 25 knots just offshore, including Racine Reef Light and
Atwater Buoy. Gradually weakening pressure gradient will allow
wind gusts to fall below 22 knots later this morning into the
afternoon. 

Offshore winds will continue through tonight, with winds backing
to the south on Monday. Latest MODIS imagery shows that the
offshore winds have resulted in upwelling of cooler subsurface
water along the near shore waters. Lake surface temp has cooled
into the 50s.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Monday THROUGH Saturday...Wood


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 101455 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
955 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

.UPDATE...

Quiet weather will continue today under the western periphery of
high pressure. Temps and dewpoints will be a little warmer today,
with forecast values seeming to be on track.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

Scattered to broken ceilings around 4-5 kft continue toward the
Illinois border this morning. Elsewhere, diurnal cumulus will
likely develop by later this morning. 

It will remain quiet into tonight, with a few showers or storms
possible northwest of Madison later tonight as a low pressure
system approaches. A little fog is not of the question again
tonight, but not expecting widespread fog as high pressure
continues to shift eastward.

The chance for showers and storms will increase on Thursday,
especially in the northwest forecast area. Storms are then likely
Thursday evening/night as low moves into the area.

&&

.MARINE...

Latest MODIS imagery showed Lake MI surface temp has risen into the
low to mid 70s across the nearshore waters out to mid-lake. Little
upwelling expected until the weekend when winds turn predominately
west to northwest.  Hence water temperatures expected to remain mild
next several days.  Average Lake MI temperature running about two
degrees above the long-term average for early August. 

Land-based heating expected to result in a lake breeze developing
over the near shore and shore areas late this morning and early
afternoon.  Wind speeds expected to rise mostly to 8 to 10 knots
with a few gusts potentially of 13-15 knots.  Next chance for
precipitation Thursday night into Friday morning when weak cold
front moves through the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 316 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016/ 

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Light winds and dew points in the middle to upper 60s should allow
for light fog to form across the area early this morning, with more
concentrated fog in low lying areas. This fog should dissipate by
middle morning. 

Quiet weather is expected today, with warm and humid conditions.
Winds should shift onshore near Lake Michigan by late morning and
linger in the afternoon. This should keep temperatures there down a
bit. Inland areas should reach the upper 80s for highs today. Heat
index values should be in the lower to middle 90s inland. Scattered
to broken diurnal cumulus clouds should develop by afternoon inland. 

00Z model runs are now keeping the northwestern areas dry later
tonight. It seems like the best forcing for upward vertical motion
will remain to the west later tonight. Kept low POPs in the forecast
for now in the northwest, but these may need removal later on, if
dry look to models continues. 

There should be more light fog development later tonight across the
area, as winds become relatively light with dew points in the upper
60s to around 70. Lows tonight will be similar.

THURSDAY - Confidence...Medium
A very warm and very humid airmass will be in place and sustained by
a southerly lower level flow. 925 temps will be into the mid 20s
celsius and consensus of MOS numbers supports dew points in the
low to mid 70s. So rather uncomfortable. 591dm ridge axis
collapses somewhat as the day wears on with lower level forcing
tied to the surface/850 frontal boundaries will hold off to the
northwest of the cwa. With 850 LLJ starting to lean a bit more
into cwa and a slight indication of some dcva will keep mention of
tsra across mainly the western and northwest cwa as the day wears
on.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY - Confidence...Medium
Expecting an unsettled period as more vigorous shortwave activity
arrives along with the surface/850 millibar frontal boundaries. So
appears to be some decent lower level and mid/upper level forcing
working in concert. MLCAPE from the ecmwf shows values aoa 1000 j/kg.
250 millibar jet core progd to ride to our north with increasing
divergence noted in association with a the right rear quad of the
jet core. So will continue the trend of higher pops this period.
The slow movement of the front through the area into at least
Friday morning could result in some much needed rainfall across
srn WI.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY - Confidence...Medium
A cooler and drier air airmass will prevail in the wake of the
departed frontal boundary. The low level thermal trough will be
set up by Sunday and linger into Monday. Surface/850 ridging will
dominate while the mid level flow will be on the cyclonic side.
The ecmwf shows the strongest looking vort coming in late Saturday
night into Sunday morning with the GEM and GFS weaker with more of
an elongated/sheared appearance to this feature. Will stick with
the quiet Superblend pops at this time.

TUESDAY - Confidence...Medium
The GFS builds up a 588dm ridge while the ECMWF keeps the mid level
flow cyclonic with more weak waves passing through. Still the progs
keep the area dry with any precip more likely to our north or west.
Again, Superblend looks dry so will stick with it for now. With 925
flow likely to become either south or southwest, should see a little
bounce back in the low level thermal pattern so will likely
see temps nudge back into the 80s.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...May see light fog at TAF sites until middle 
morning, with light winds and humid conditions. Otherwise, expect
VFR conditions today into this evening. Light south winds are expected
at Madison, with east southeast winds at the eastern sites. Scattered
to broken diurnal cumulus clouds are expected by late morning,
lingering into the afternoon.

Light winds are expected tonight, with clearing skies. Should see
more light fog later tonight at TAF sites, with visibilities down to
around 3 miles possible. 

MARINE...East southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected today 
across the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan. Waves will remain
in the 1 to 2 foot range. May see light fog develop over the lake
later tonight, with light winds and a humid airmass in place.
Could see more light fog at times into Friday, with the warm and
humid airmass over the area. Winds should be high enough to
prevent dense fog formation.

A passing cold front Thursday night into Friday will likely bring
thunderstorms to the area. Winds and waves will remain below Small
Craft Advisory levels into Friday. 

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Wood
Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...Collar


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 071019
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
619 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across
Pennsylvania early next week, then move off the east coast during
the second half of next week. A slow-moving cold front will
likely push into the state by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early am MODIS imagery showing patchy in the valleys of western
Pa, the result of cool temps/calm wind and much warmer river/stream
water. Latest HRRR suggests any fog will burn off by 13Z.

Sfc high and assoc dry air mass building into Pa will bring mostly
sunny skies to the region today with blw avg humidity for August.
A weak shortwave approaching the area has produced a few shra
as it crossed the warm waters of Lk Erie early this morning, but
air mass across Pa is likely too dry to support any showers. 8h
temps nr 15C should translate to max temps from the u70s ovr the
Alleghenies, to the m80s across the Susq Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Center of sfc high will drift across upstate NY tonight, resulting
in another night of efficient radiational cooling, esp across the
n mtns. SREF and downscaled NAM both indicate patchy fog will form
in the deep river/stream valleys north of I-80 with lows in the
m50s. Mins btwn 60-65F expected across the southern half of the
state. 

All mdl data tracks a shortwave across Pa on Monday, but 0-3km lyr
will remain quite dry, so nothing more than some passing cirrus
expected. Ens mean 8h temps support seasonal high temps btwn
80-85F over most of Central Pa.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As sfc high drifts off the east coast on Tuesday, an increasingly
humid SE flow will result in a fair amt of aftn cu and perhaps an
isold pm tsra across the Allegheny Mtns. 00Z NAEFS/ECENS showing
a building subtropical ridge over the eastern CONUS by the middle
of next week with temps rising abv seasonal norms. 00Z GEFS shows
Pa lying within ribbon of higher PWATs on northern periphery of
upper ridge, likely supporting sct diurnally-driven pm convection
Wed-Fri. All med range guidance indicating a slow-moving cold
front will press se into the area by next weekend, so have gone
with somewhat higher Pops next Saturday.

ECENS/NAEFS mean 8h temps rebound to near 20C Wed-Sat, which
should support max temps above 90 in the valley locations.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high building in has dropped dewpoints into the 50s
areawide. So VFR conditions will continue overnight, though
isolated reductions possible just before sunrise - mainly in
locales that received rain over the past 24hrs. Winds will be
light.

The dry air should provide several days of excellent flying
weather with VFR dominating through at least Tuesday.

Outlook...

Sun-Tue...No sig wx expected.

Wed...Isold MVFR restrictions poss in afternoon shra/tsra.

Thu...Sct MVFR restrictions poss in afternoon shra/tsra.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...RXR


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KTFX 020329
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
928 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
No update necessary tonight. High pressure continues to provide dry
and stable conditions. MODIS satellite imagery continues to show
some smoke from Idaho wildfires making its way into southwest
Montana. Temperatures look good.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 2335Z.
High pressure aloft will continue to provide dry and stable
conditions. West to northwest winds have been gusty at some
locations but will decrease after 03z. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 336 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2016

Monday afternoon through Wednesday...The upper level low over
northern Saskatchewan will continue to lift NE into Hudson Bay
tonight allowing a s/w ridge to briefly build into Montana.
Outside of an isolated shower or storm near the Little Rockies
this afternoon, this should keep the forecast area precip-free
through Tuesday morning.

Late Tuesday into Wednesday, a potent upper level low will move
through the region. At the SFC, an area of low pressure and
associated cold front will move across the CWA Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Moisture with this low looks limited at this
time and mainly confined along and north of the low track (ie.
from the Hi-Line north into Canada). How much moisture can be
pulled into our northern counties remains uncertain and may
ultimately determine whether we can get much t-storm development
on this side of the International Border. That said, forecast
soundings indicate more than adequate shear in that area late
Tuesday into Tuesday evening, so any storm that can develop will
have the potential to become strong to severe with damaging winds
and large hail the main threats. Again, though, the threat may be
tampered by how much moisture can be pulled into the area.

The other issue with this front will be the wind. A lighter
south/SE wind will develop ahead of the low Tuesday afternoon,
then quickly shift to the west late Tuesday afternoon through
Tuesday night from west to east. Across the plains of north-
central Montana, wind gusts of 30-45 mph are likely. The strong
winds combined with drier air may lead to some elevated fire
concerns. However, at this time there is some uncertainty
regarding just how dry it will get and for this reason, will hold
off on any fire weather highlights for Wednesday afternoon.
Something to keep a close eye on, though. Temperatures will warm
to above normal Tuesday afternoon, then drop down below normal on
Wednesday behind the front. Martin

Wednesday night through Monday...Upper level low looks to move
east across southern Canada Wednesday night...ending breezy winds
and chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms from west to
east across the forecast area. Ridge of high pressure with weak
and dry flow moves across the region for Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures will warm each day back into the 80s...with the
mentioned dry air dropping afternoon RH values back into the teens
to low 20s. No precipitation is expected for Thursday. Friday will
see a switch to a more south southeasterly flow...possibly gusty
at times. This southerly flow will also bring with it a slight
increase of monsoonal moisture. Only southern parts of the CWA
will have enough to support chances for thunderstorms on
Friday...but this southerly flow could start to prime the
atmosphere for this weekend. A closed upper level low in western
Canada extends a large trough across the west coast for Saturday.
This will help bring more monsoonal moisture across the region.
Along with that...se flow continues at the sfc advecting more
moisture into the region. With low to moderate instability...the
upper level disturbance...and increased moisture...isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will be possible across much of the CWA on
Saturday. The upper level trough will then push across the region
on Sunday. A developing sfc low in southern MT could even tap into
some limited gulf moisture across eastern portions of the
CWA...possibly bringing dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s. Much like
Saturday...isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible
across much of the CWA. Exact timing and location of these weekend
storms is difficult to predict this far out...so put widespread
slight chance in across the area. With only moderate levels of
shear...a few isolated stronger storms may be possible this
weekend...and mainly confined to eastern portions of the CWA where
models are indicating higher dewpoints may enter into the CWA. The
trough will then move northeast through Montana on
Monday...keeping a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over
the forecast area. Similar temperatures to those previously
mentioned on Thursday and Friday will continue through the weekend
into Monday. Anglin/Coulston

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
On Tuesday, temperatures will become quite warm with continued very
dry air, especially in the central and southwest fire zones (117 and
118). However, a light easterly flow on the northern and eastern
plains (zones 112, 113, 115) should keep humidity values there a bit
higher. A cold front is then expected to sweep east across the
region Tuesday evening/overnight. Winds may increase some in the
deeper mixed pre-frontal environment late Tuesday afternoon, but at
this point the timing of the front is not optimal for gusty winds
during the peak afternoon heating period.
Gusty west winds will sweep east behind the front Tuesday night
through Wednesday. Temperatures cool and humidity improves Tuesday
night through Wednesday, though some locations across SW MT may
still see afternoon RH fall to near 20% Wednesday afternoon.
Because the driest conditions and strongest winds do not seem to
coincide at this time, am not anticipating a need for fire
weather highlights at this time, but will continue to monitor the
situation for possible timing adjustments. 
Hoenisch/Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  90  53  75 /   0   0  10  10 
CTB  46  85  52  68 /   0  10  20  20 
HLN  54  94  57  79 /   0  10  10   0 
BZN  48  92  49  80 /   0  10  10   0 
WEY  42  81  45  73 /  10  10  10   0 
DLN  48  88  48  78 /   0  10   0   0 
HVR  50  91  57  75 /   0   0  20  20 
LWT  53  87  54  75 /   0  10  10  10 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 180823
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
323 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT... Forecast confidence - Medium to High.

Weak frontal boundary has just about exited far southeast WI early
this morning.  Light surface winds have become mostly west to
northwest which are ushering in slightly lower humidity and
dewpoints.  Just above the surface, winds a bit more robust from the
northwest at 10 to 20 knots, lowering the humidity aloft as well.
Low level mixiness also helping to prevent significant fog
development early this morning despite Sunday rainfall.  A quiet
period is expected through tonight, but passing cloudiness can be
expected time to time.  Occasional passing high clouds due to cirrus
blowoff from upstream convection across northern IA/MN can be
expected into tonight.  Also enough lingering low level rh will
contribute to some cumulus development later this morning and
afternoon.  

With temperatures starting out mild, expect daytime temps to rebound
into the low to mid 80s.  A developing lake breeze will cool shore
areas in the afternoon.  

Expect elevated instability and baroclinic zone to remain upstream
across IA extending into central IL through tonight. Hence any
convection to remain to the west and south.  Lighter boundary level
winds tonight will allow patchy late night fog to develop.  Fog
should be more limited in parts of western CWA due to another bout
of cirrus blowoff affecting this area later tonight. 

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Surface high pressure will slide southeastward Tuesday, becoming
centered over the eastern Great Lakes by evening. The surface
high will continue to depart Wednesday, while an upper ridge
builds into the region. Will probably see a wave or two ride
through the top of the mid/upper ridge. Increasing moisture and
warm advection will combine with forcing from the waves to kick
off rounds of storms within the region. Models are coming into
better agreement wave timing/placement...suggesting Tuesday night
into Wednesday may be the best chance for storms.

Temps should be a couple/few degrees above normal Tue and Wed. 

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Could be another round or two of storms late in the week as
disturbances move through the northern periphery of the upper
ridge. Not great confidence in the low pops in the forecast, as it
could easily be dry Thursday and Friday due to capping under the
ridge. 

Higher confidence Thu/Fri remains with temps, as models are
generally in good agreement that it will turn hot and humid.
Timing of any clouds and precip with the weak waves could
certainly throw a wrench in forecast temps either day. Given that
it looks mainly dry for late week though, kept the hot temps
going. Looking increasingly likely that heat headlines may be
needed for both days, with forecast heat indices in the 100 to 105
range.

.SATURDAY and SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The trough and associated cold front are expected to finally move
through on Saturday. Kept some pops going, though not very
impressed with the forcing suggested by models. Looks mainly dry
then Sunday as high pressure builds into the area.

Bumped temps up a bit Saturday with the slower progression of the
trough/front compared to model solutions 24 hours ago. Should see
temps return to near normal Sunday behind the departing front. 

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Weak frontal boundary exiting far southeast WI has ushered somewhat
less humid air across the area overnight.  Light surface winds have
veered to the northwest most areas and surface dewpoints have
dropped a few degrees into the mid to upper 60s.  Just off surface,
northwest winds increase to 10 to 20 knots.  These conditions will
prevent significant fog from forming early this morning.  VFR
conditions expected for the forecast period with few-sct cumulus
developing later this morning and afternoon. Patchy fog more of a
threat late tonight due to lighter boundary layer winds. May put in
some light fog in eastern TAF sites late, but expected high clouds
over western CWA should help prevent fog in this area. 

&& 

.MARINE...

Much lighter winds are expected today.  West to northwest winds will
become onshore late this morning and afternoon due to a light
pressure gradient and shore temperatures warming into the 80s.
Breezy southwest winds on Sunday following morning thunderstorms
resulted in upwelling of cooler water temperatures.  The Atwater
Buoy located 1.25 miles off northern Milwaukee county continues to
measure water temperatures in the 40s early this morning, which
corresponds with MODIS satellite imagery from Sun aftn.  The lighter
winds expected next 48 hours will allow water temperature to recover
in the shallower near shore areas.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...DDV


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KHUN 170652
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
152 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A mostly clear sky combined with a moist near surface layer has
provided a favorable environment for valley fog development. IR
imagery (GOES and MODIS) are showing river valley fog in parts of
Jackson and DeKalb Counties in northeast AL and Franklin County in
TN. Observations at K4A9 and KMSL also indicate fog at this hour. The
fog should dissipate rather quickly after sunrise so will carry it
through ~13Z.

Water vapor imagery and stream flow vectors indicate a shortwave
trough has now pushed into central AL and GA, with slightly drier mid
and upper levels helping to clear the sky in the TN valley.
Nevertheless, forecast soundings indicate good potential for
convective instability to develop readily again today. The best
chance of thunderstorm development should take place along the higher
terrain in the southeast portion of our forecast area. Will go with a
chance POP in these areas, lowering to slight chance in our northwest
areas. Forecast CAPE values are not as high as Saturday, but given
some drier air in the mid and upper levels, some downdrafts could
produce gusty winds again today. Will go ahead and forecast patchy
fog again tonight given little change in atmospheric conditions
expected from what we see this morning.

Not much change in forecast thinking from yesterday with a broad
longitudinal ridge building across the southern U.S., which
strengthens into a well defined anti-cyclone over Kansas by Monday
into Tuesday. This places our area in an eastward extension of a ridge
axis. There will be considerable northwest flow bringing impulses
southeast through the Ohio Valley that may round the ridge to the
southwest and west into the deep South during the early part of this
week. This will help keep at least low chances of thunderstorms in
on Monday and Tuesday. The greater chance appears to be on Tuesday
when a "back door" cold front drops south or southwest from the Ohio
Valley with at least scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of it.
Will we see the considerably drier surface dew point air that the
GFS advects in behind this front on Thursday into Friday? The ECMWF
is less optimistic on lowering dew points as much as the GFS and
seems more reasonable. The 850 mb high position is also progged to
be right over middle TN and north AL on Thursday. So, it will
certainly be a hot weather period this week into next weekend. The
question will be the humidity and resulting heat index values. Those
will be highest in our NW Alabama counties which will flirt with 105
degrees, while other areas may experience mainly upper 90s to around
100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1231 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016)
For 06Z TAFs: Mostly clear skies continue at both TAF sites at this
time. Very light winds will continue and new model guidance shows
very little additional cloud cover developing. In fact, new guidance
suggests VSBYS dropping to between 1 and 3 miles after 17/08Z or
17/09Z. Skeptical that KHSV will drop that low, since they had very
little rain today at the terminal. Thus, VSBY values were dropped
into the MVFR category at KHSV and to IFR at KMSL. Although cigs
around 4000 feet will develop by 17/15Z, VFR conditions will
return/continue through the rest of the TAF period. An isolated tsra
is a possibility at both sites tomorrow afternoon, but left out due
to low confidence of development. If one affects the TAF sites, lower
CIGS and VSBYS are possible.

KTW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville    93  73  94  73 /  30  20  20  20 
Shoals        93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  20 
Vinemont      91  72  92  72 /  40  20  20  20 
Fayetteville  92  72  93  72 /  30  20  20  20 
Albertville   91  71  92  71 /  40  30  30  20 
Fort Payne    90  70  92  70 /  40  30  30  20 

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$ 

For more information please visit our website 
at weather.gov/huntsville.


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK68 PAFC 121756 CCA
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
956 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The closed upper level low continues to move eastward, and is
reflected at the surface as a weak low positioned over the lower
southwestern Gulf this morning. While, a 1008 mb low pressure
system is approaching the Southeast Panhandle near Sitka with a
100 knot southwesterly jet streaking just south of the Dixon
Entrance. The moisture from this system is streaming northward
bringing numerous showers into the northern Gulf coastal
communities, except for some moisture spilling over the mountains
with periods of light rain filtering into the Southcentral region.
While, another weak shortwave is over the Kuskokwim Delta, and is
reflected at the surface with a weak cyclonic circulation west of
Bethel. The radar imagery is picking this feature up well, and is
depicting the cyclonic circulation associated with this low. Plus,
numerous showers over the Kuskokwim Delta coastline from Kipnuk
northward, and scattered rain showers over the Kuskokwim
Mountains. The MODIS Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery is
picking up the low stratus along the southwest coastline from
Kipnuk eastward. This feature is being aided by the onshore flow
helping to transfer the stratus inland this morning. The Western
Aleutians have a comma cloud shield streaming from the Pacific
Ocean associated with the 1000 mb North Pacific Low located
southwest of Shemya.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement as the North Pacific Low
approaches Shemya, and as the ridge of high pressure builds into
the Bering Sea. Looks like the Southwest Alaska region will have a
nice warming trend as the high pressure builds, and begins to
extend into Southcentral Alaska area. Plus, the northwesterly
flow will result in drier conditions. The models in the Gulf keep
weak diffuse lows moving across the region keeping moisture mainly
along the coast. The forecast confidence is average as we head
into the early work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The surface flow will remain fairly weak through tonight with
surface ridging across the Bering and a trough along the eastern
Gulf. An upper level low currently centered near Kodiak drifts
slowly east across the southern gulf waters through the
afternoon. This system pinwheels easterly shortwaves across the
southern mainland and gulf bringing continued shower activity
until ridging builds in from the southwest which should diminish
rain activity by Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late
this afternoon and tonight along the Talkeetna Mountains during
peak heating, with the focus shifting to the mountains along the
Copper River on Monday as a thermal trough extends south from the
Yukon. Offshore flow develops across the Eastern Kenai on Monday
with gusty conditions developing early Tuesday. North to westerly
flow sets up across all of Southcentral by late Tuesday with
stronger gusts across channeled terrain and gap locations along
the coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A showery regime will hang around for one more day before a much
drier, and then a warmer air mass comes around on Tuesday. Today
the forecast starts out with a strong shortwave trough withing the
larger cyclonic circulation taking up most of southern Alaska. The
steady rain over the Kuskokwim Delta will continue this morning,
mainly west of Bethel before tapering off this afternoon. The rest
of the mainland will see afternoon showers and thunderstorms
associated with the cold air aloft. The best chance for thunder to
accompany showers will be in eastern portions of the Bristol Bay
zone. That system exits to the east tonight and will be replaced
with a northwesterly flow regime aloft. Monday night into Tuesday
a disturbance in this flow will bring a chance of rain to northern
areas of the mainland. High pressure builds in on Tuesday bringing
much drier and warmer conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
One front weakens over the Bering today, and another approaches.
The Eastern Aleutians will see spotty rain today as the front
overhead falls apart. Most of the Bering will see generally weak
westerly flow with some areas of fog. An east-west frontal
boundary will stretch across the north Pacific, and will spread
over the Western and Central Aleutians on Monday afternoon while
weakening. A triple point low pressure system will develop on this
front late Monday evening, affecting the Central and Eastern
Aleutians with steady moderate rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the long term period, a ridge over the Bering Sea will
be building ahead of a North Pacific low with a northerly
shortwave trough moving into the Gulf of Alaska. With the remnants
of the previous Gulf low moving southeast, this pattern will
promote strong offshore flow and rapid drying across southern
Alaska. Rapid warming will occur Tuesday with Wednesday and
Thursday looking to be the warmest days of the year thus far
across many locations as 850 hpa temperatures rise to 8 to 12C, 2
to 3 standard deviations above normal. By late Thursday into
Friday, uncertainty rises with respect the Bering low and how
quickly the front moves into southwest Alaska (and eventually
Southcentral). The ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian GDPS all differ with
respect to timing and how much phase interaction there is with the
subtropics, which impacts dramatically how quickly and how wet the
eventual front is as it moves eastward. For now, a WPC ensemble
approach was favored which features increasing trends for
precipitation and gradually moderating temps (back towards normal)
from the end of the week into the weekend.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...JA


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 110836
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
336 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence - Medium.

Eastern IA convection continues to dwindle and sag southeast early
this morning.  Hence expect widespread cirrus shield to thin and
dissipate.  A humid day lies ahead with the added moisture from
Friday's rainfall and the lighter west to southwest winds helping to
keep dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  925H temps rising to
around 25-26c and partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon should
help the mercury rise into the lower 90s most locations, even closer
to the lakeshore.  The west winds should keep the lake breeze held
close to the lakeshore this afternoon.  The combination of warm
temperatures and humidity will result in Heat Index values rising
into the mid to upper 90s, with a few southwest spots perhaps
briefly reaching 100.  Too isolated at this point to post Heat
Advisory, plus some uncertainty regarding upstream high clouds
perhaps keeping daytime temperatures 1-2 degrees cooler.  Both
Madison and Milwaukee will approach their record high temp for
today. 

0-6km bulk shear expected to be weaker today, around 20kts but CAPE
values should rise to 2-3k joules, once weak capping inversion is
eclipsed early this afternoon.  Will continue smaller chance for
thunderstorms in this afternoon due to expected instability and
passing weak boundary and potential weak lobe of mid-level vorticity
adding some synoptic lift. SPC has lowered severe threat to marginal
which seems reasonable considering lack of significant forcing and
shear.  

Low level cold air surge will follow vigorous back door cold front
which will pass through southern WI tonight.  3 hour pressure rises
behind this front of 3 to 5 mb will result in some gusty winds by
the lake shore.  However drier air settling into srn WI should
prevent convection from re-firing over most of the area as stronger
cold front sweeps through during the evening and overnight. Will
keep small pops in across the far southwest. Cooler, less humid
conditions return for Sunday, especially by the lake.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY... Forecast confidence is high.

Temperatures will be much cooler on Sunday in the wake of the cold
front. Lake-cooled air will lead to highs in the 60s lakeshore. The
ridging and warm temperatures will remain in place over the Midwest,
so highs are expected around 80 west of Madison. Dry air over
southern WI will keep the weather quiet for Sunday and Sunday
evening with decreasing clouds.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Dakotas and northern
MN on Sunday due to weak low pressure. The precip should track ESE
per the Corfidi vectors overnight into Monday. The weak cold front
with this system should slide south through the day and stall over
southern WI Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms could re-develop
along that boundary Monday afternoon/evening but forcing will be
very weak so confidence is not high.

Temperatures should climb back into the 80s Monday ahead of that
cold front.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

A mid level trough will close off over he upper Midwest later in the
week. This system will bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms to southern WI mainly Wednesday. Then clouds and
showers will linger through Thursday until the system can move out.
Ridging moves back in and the weekend looks fairly dry with
temperatures around normal for mid June.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

High clouds from persistent upstream convection over northeast IA
preventing fog from developing early this morning.  Lack of low
level convergence also keeping low cloud development at bay.  Hence
a mostly VFR period is expected.  A thunderstorm will be possible
this afternoon and evening.  A wind shift to the northeast will
accompany a cold front passing through this evening. 

&&

.MARINE...

Webcams not indicated any fog near the shore early this morning,
however threat for dense fog will persist today into this evening as
warm, humid air flows across cooler Lake MI.  Recent buoys and MODIS
imagery indicating Lake MI water temp in the low to mid 50s while
surface dewpoints rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s today.  

SW winds will likely back to the south to southeast over the near
shore waters later this morning and afternoon.  However the lake
breeze should be held close to the shore by the expected WSW breezes
over the land. 

Strong back door cold front will sweep rapidly south across the near
shore waters this evening, between 00z and 06z.  Burst of north to
northeast winds immediately behind front may gust as high as 35
knots, but should quickly settle down to 33 knots or less. Looks
like the gusty winds over 22 knots will persist through the late
night along with building waves. Hence will post Small Craft
Advisory tonight into early Sunday for lingering high waves.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday 
     for LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday 
     for LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Sunday THROUGH Friday...MRC


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 311830 RRA
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion...DELAYED
National Weather Service State College PA
230 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth tonight and 
Wednesday. Increasing moisture will flow northward into
Pennsylvania for Thursday and Friday...bringing a better chance
for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms...ahead of
another relatively weak cold front. Saturday is expected to be dry
again...but wet weather may arrive for the second half of the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Tiny shallow cumulus clouds are scattered about all of central PA 
at this hour as per GOES East and MODIS imagery. Strong inversion
at 675 Mb is squashing vertical development so no expecting any of
these to produce anything of consequence.

Aside from thin high clouds streaming NEWD from the Ohio and
Tennessee River Valleys...skies will clear this evening and it
will be a comfortable night with a light NE breeze. Lows will
vary from around 50F across the northern border...to near 60F in
the valleys of Southern PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
With sfc high pressure tracking north and northeast of region on
Wednesday...another mostly sunny...warm and dry day is in store. 
Comfortable dewpoints in the low 50s up north...and the mid and
upper 50s elsewhere...will combine with highs mostly in the lower
to middle 80s to bring another stellar day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridge of high pressure should bring a mostly sunny Wednesday with
warm amd dry conditions aided by comfortable dewpoints in the low
50s up north...and the mid and upper 50s elsewhere.

Latest 00-06Z Models and ensembles show cold front moving into
the area late Thursday into Friday. 12Z NAM is showing large scale
flow to be less amplified and more zonal in a sense...so front not
likely to slow down quite as much for late Friday into Sat.

For Sunday into Monday...another weak system swings across the
area. Adjusted parameters to fit in with others. A slow cool
down as one heads into next weekend. At this time range...too
far out for not having some spread in model solutions from day
to day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conds will prevail through tonight. Some patchy late night and early
morning fog is expected with mvfr restrictions. This will burn off
by 14z with VFR expected again throughout central PA.

OUTLOOK...

Wed...No sig wx. Local fog reductions poss around dawn.

Thu...A.M. cig reductions poss west. Chance of showers/tstms
west.

Fri...Cold front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms with
restrictions poss.

Sat...Mainly fair/VFR. Local fog reductions poss around dawn.

Sun...Reductions in widespread rain and low cigs.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir
NEAR TERM...DeVoir
SHORT TERM...DeVoir
LONG TERM...Lambert/Martin
AVIATION...DeVoir/RXR


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 270842 
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
342 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium 

Radar mosaic shows several weakening MCS's to the south. This
weakening has allowed surge of moisture advection to begin spreading
northward.  Short term guidance underestimating upstream low level
jet as vertical wind profiler network from WSR-88D showing 40-50kt
jet focused into central IA while IL on weaker eastern side of jet.
The combination of this surge and approaching mid-level jetlet
should carry at least scattered showers and storms across CWA this
morning.  Column precipitable water is expected to increase to
around 1.25 to 1.5 inches this morning as this moisture streams nwd. 

Low level jet re-energizes this aftn and eve ahead of low pressure
moving into the central plains and becoming slightly negatively
tilted.  With deeper moisture in place and MUCapes anywhere from 500-
1500 j/kg, expect scattered to numerous showers and storms to
redevelop, especially over ern CWA.  Mid level Lapse Rates only 5-6
degrees and bulk shear mostly in the 25-35kt range.  More cloud
cover today should limit instability somewhat but isold severe not
out of the question, mainly later today. Will continue likely
wording into tonight due to nearby low level jet and continuing
surges of low level moisture flux convergence and lingering
instability. 

Corfidi vectors show slow motion this afternoon and tonight as warm
cloud depth increases to 3-4km.  However the Flash Flood Factor
expected to be weak.  With PWAT values well above normal, expect
brief heavy rains to accompany t-storms but threat for flooding
looks low at this point.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

The weakening upper trough will slide from eastern NE to Lake
Superior during this period. High precipitable water values and weak
instability will persist over southern WI on Saturday. Multiple weak
shortwaves will ripple through the area as well, but timing of these
are very uncertain. All of these factors support continued chances
for showers and thunderstorms in southern WI Sat and Sat night.

The surface low will be tracking through IA and MN on Sat, which
will allow for a tighter pressure gradient in southern WI and lead
to breezy south to southwest winds. Max temps should be around 80,
as long as we see some breaks in the clouds.

By Sunday morning, the main mid level trough will be along the MN/WI
border. The final wave of vorticity advection will bring southern WI
the best chance for showers/thunderstorms Sunday morning, with
chances tapering off from west to east in the afternoon. Winds will
shift to the west in the afternoon. Max temps on Sunday should be
around 80 once again.

Sunday night is the only dry period in the forecast at this time.

MEMORIAL DAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

The mid level flow will become zonal for Monday with possible
ridging per the ECMWF. Several models are showing a weak shortwave
rippling through southern WI, which could produce a few showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder. Thus, kept the slight chance pops in
the forecast. Southern WI will still be in the mild air mass, so
expect temperatures in the lower 80s inland from the lake.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

A closed upper low will make its way across the northern Plains
Monday night through Thursday. The ECMWF is most progressive with
this low which leads to precip timing differences. The occluding
surface low will likely bring showers and thunderstorms to southern
WI Tue and Wed. Then the GFS stalls the precip axis over WI for Thu
and Fri which leads to the slight chance pops in the forecast. The
ECMWF keeps southern WI dry during this period. Temperatures should
be in the upper 70s for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today into
tonight as warm, more humid and unstable air surges northward into
the area. VFR cigs are expected for most of the period but will
briefly lower as some of these showers and storms affect taf
sites. Best chance for storms in eastern taf sites later today
into tonight. Mid-high clouds keeping fog at ba this morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Breezy west winds helped dissipate the dense fog over the
near shore waters Thursday afternoon.  However today the winds will
be more south to southeast as warmer dewpoints in the low to mid 60s
surge northward over Lake Michigan.  Hence expect more fog to
develop and likely to become dense for a time.  Most susceptible
area is offshore from Ozaukee and Sheboygan counties where MODIS
images from Thursday showed cooler waters in these areas.  Hence wl
be watching webcams of shore areas closely after sunrise.  

Mariners will need to watch for scattered thunderstorms, especially
later this afternoon and evening.  Gusty winds with these storms may
approach 35 kts, especially at the lakeshore.

Also, tighter pressure gradient south of warm front will allow gusty
south winds to affect lakeshore areas while winds remain less gusty
offshore due to steeper inversion beginning later tonight .  Wind
gusts at the shore look to approach Small Craft Advisory levels late
tonight into Saturday. 

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...MRC


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK68 PAFC 131326
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
526 AM AKDT FRI MAY 13 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper levels are depicting a closed high at 500 mb over the 
eastern Alaska Range. With an associated ridge extending through
the Southcentral region into the eastern Aleutians. This synoptic
feature is reflected at the surface with a 1030 mb high pressure
over the Yukon Territory and a 1031 mb high in the northern Gulf
of Alaska this morning. This coincides with the MODIS Nighttime
Microphysics satellite imagery showing low stratus and fog in the
Central Gulf. While the Southcentral region has some high cirrus
clouds spilling over the ridge into the AOR. At 300 mb there is a
strong 90 knot southerly jet stream extending through the eastern
Bering northward into the Y-K Delta region towards the North
Slope. The radar imagery is showing a steady onshore flow with
rain echoes through the aforementioned region. The rest of the
Bering Sea is under weak easterly to northeasterly flow, and high
pressure is positioned over the Bering Strait. The strongest winds
along the Aleutian Chain are over the Unalaska region with small
craft advisory winds on the Pacific side due to a gale force low
south of the Central Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models continue to remain in good agreement except for the
timing of an upper level trough that will be swinging through the
Western Gulf of Alaska into the Southwest Alaska region this
weekend. The ecmwf is slightly faster than the gfs/nam with this
feature. This synoptic feature combined with the thermal trough
will enhance the possiblities of producing isolated thunderstorms
over the Southwest region for Saturday afternoon/evening timeframe.
The forecast confidence remains high through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
With a strong ridge overhead expect a hot and dry day across
Southcentral Alaska. The main forecast challenge is timing and
strength of sea breezes. As the 850 mb ridge lifts northward into
interior Alaska today offshore flow of 5 to 10 knots will develop.
This will be enough to at least delay the onset of sea breezes,
especially along prince william sound and the north gulf coast.
therefore, have bumped up high temps at least a few degrees 
area-wide (and correspondingly lowered relative humidities).

Winds on Saturday look quite a bit different. As the upper level
ridge moves inland a well defined thermal trough will set up
beneath it. This will aid in development of the very typical east-
west oriented surface ridge along the north Gulf Coast which will
promote development of stronger sea breezes moving in earlier in
the day. Development of gusty gap winds is expected along
Turnagain Arm and into south to west Anchorage, and also along
the Knik River Valley into Palmer and along the Copper River. The
sea breezes and gap winds will help moderate temperatures, so forecast
highs have been lowered just a bit.

Meanwhile, an upper level trough will approach Southcentral
Saturday afternoon then move through Saturday night into Sunday.
The air mass out ahead of it will start out very dry and stable.
Surface-based stability parameters look favorable for
convection...mainly over the western Kenai Peninsula, Talkeetna
Mountains and northern Susitna Valley. Based on the limiting
factors of moisture and stability it seems convective initiation
is most likely to occur over the mountains where there is always
some moisture to work with (in the form of melting snow). Have
maintained a slight chance of thunderstorms for the western Kenai
Peninsula, but with warmer low level temps inland the best chance
for showers and thunderstorms will be over the Talkeetna
mountains. Southeasterly flow will advect whatever does form
across the northern Susitna Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A few lingering showers will be seen across the Kuskokwim Delta
and Lower Kuskokwim Valley this morning as the building upper
level ridge shifts the upper level trough anchored over the Bering
Sea and North pacific westward. By midday, the remaining lift
along the eastern periphery of the upper level trough will shift
into the Bering Sea and allow sky cover to quickly diminish.
Temperatures at 850 mb will warm 2 to 5 degrees Celsius over the
next 24 to 36 hours as the ridge moves overhead. These warmer
temperatures aloft coupled with developing offshore flow will
easily bring some of the warmest temperatures observed so far this
year. Temperatures today will warm into the mid 50s across the
Kuskokwim Delta to the lower to mid 60s across the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley and into the mid 60s to lower 70s across all of southwest
Alaska on Saturday. Thunderstorms look likely on Saturday but will
be isolated due to the lack of sufficient moisture. Thermal
profiles show lapse rates of 7 to 8 degrees C/km with sfc based
CAPE values upwards to 500 J/kg. An easterly wave will be pushing
across the northern Bristol Bay area and southern portions of the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley Saturday afternoon which will act as the
lifting mechanism that will help utilize the instability and what
little moisture is available.

On Sunday, a similar setup to Saturday will be in place once
again. However, there will be a few differences in the ingredients
in place Sunday afternoon. The biggest plus for thunderstorms
will be a stronger lifting mechanism on Sunday in the form of
another upper level easterly wave moving across southwest Alaska.
The negatives include somewhat less surface-based instability on
Sunday due to cooler temperatures resulting from more cloud cover,
and less moisture in place. Thermal lapse rates will be around 7
degrees C/km with forecast model soundings indicating CAPE values
of 200-300 J/kg. Dew points are expected to be in the 40s. Thus,
the fundamental question will be if the stronger wave will be able
to overcome a less favorable environment. The current thinking is
the best chance for storms will be along the Kilbuck and Ahklun
Mountains, extending north into parts of the Kuskokwim Valley as
the topography aids in lifting the moist, unstable air mass in
place. The timing of the upper level easterly wave is also such
that it will be moving into this region at the most favorable time
of day (late afternoon) when the greatest amount of heating can
occur prior to convective initiation.

If thunderstorms develop, an environment featuring weak steering-
level winds should mean the storms will move very little from
where they form. This means the storms will choke themselves off
from their source of warm, moist air as they create their own cold
pools.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure will be the main story across much of the Bering Sea
through the weekend. An area of low pressure in the North Pacific
will drive a front through the eastern and central Aleutians this
afternoon before stalling just west of Adak Saturday night as it
clashes with the high pressure over the Bering Sea. The front will
bring some decent rainfall to the eastern and central Aleutians as
well as small craft winds and seas. The front will help displace
the high pressure over the Bering Sea which will allow for broad
cyclonic flow to re-develop over the Bering Sea by the beginning
of next week and bring the return of isolated to scattered rain
showers. Fog will be possible across much of the Bering with high
pressure moving overhead but should decrease drastically in
coverage as the aforementioned front displaces the high pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

High pressure over the area will begin to diminish sunday night
with low pressure building back over the gulf and eastern
bering...causing increasing cloudiness along the coast and parts
of the southern mainland. By early to mid next week...models
continue to struggle with how they want to handle various systems
that will move through the area. This results in lower forecast confidence
moving into mid week with some models bringing in showers to the
area...especially during the afternoon with daytime heating.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC/JW
LONG TERM...TP


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK68 PAFC 101333
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
533 AM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE WESTERN BERING HAS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE
WITH A 991 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SOUTHERLY AND COINCIDES WITH A STRONG 110 KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM OVER THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH THE Y-K
DELTA REGION THIS MORNING. THE RADAR IS SHOWING A SWATH OF
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION THIS MORNING.

ON THE EAST SIDE AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF WITH AN ASSOCIATED AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF NORTHWARD INTO THE
BEAUFORT SEA. THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WIND IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE
WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE GULF AND WESTERLY WINDS FROM THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN GULF
THIS MORNING. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION. WHILE THE MODIS
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE MAT-SU VALLEYS AND THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE NAM WAS THE
PREFERRED MODEL OF CHOICE. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)...
PANC...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING
BEFORE WE START GETTING STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS COMING OFF THE
TURNAGAIN ARM BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE
EVENING TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA NORTH TO
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. AREAS WEST OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
WILL HOLD UNDER GENERALLY BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE FROM A WEAKENING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS AREAS WEST
OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE DYNAMICS ARE PRETTY WEAK...HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE KENAI AND
SUSITNA VALLEY TODAY THROUGH WED MORNING WITH SPRINKLES TOWARD THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL/MAT VALLEY TONIGHT AND WED. THE RIDGE BUILDS WEST
SOME WED NIGHT AND THU...SO ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE PUSHED
WEST.

LOCAL GAP FLOWS (TURNAGAIN ARM/PORTAGE VALLEY/COPPER RIVER/KNIK)
WILL PERSIST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WED...THOUGH THE TURNAGAIN WIND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...TUE AND WED)...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN PINCHED BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
BERING AND A RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. WITH SOME FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE SWEET
SPOT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF RAIN. THE FLOW WILL
FAVOR SOUTH FACING SLOPES WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THU EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS...RAIN SHOULD
COME AS STEADY PRECIPITATION AND NOT BE OVERLY HEAVY AT ANY ONE
TIME. THUS...HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME.
BUT THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY ESSENTIALLY STALLS OVER SW
ALASKA AND WAVE AFTER WAVE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL RIDE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG IT. EACH WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...TUE AND
WED)...BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL DOMINATE THE BERING. ON THE
EASTERN HALF...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE JET FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...FAVORING THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CHAIN. IT WILL ALSO PUMP UP
SOME WARMER AIR CREATING DECENT FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER
COOLER WATERS AND THE ICE PACK. ON THE WESTERN HALF...COOLER AND
CALMER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING DOWN
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
POSSIBLY ALLOWING A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THE
ANCHOR LOW WITHIN THE CIRCULATION WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY EAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY...HELPING TO BRING AN END TO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A CONSOLIDATED BLOCKING HIGH WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE STATE AND ELONGATE AND BUILD TO THE WEST LATE THURSDAY. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE SKIES AND RESULT IN WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOONS
THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
THIS YEAR ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...DK


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 090830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS ON INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SOUTHERN WI IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE CONTROL OF
DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HOWEVER LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH.  SURFACE WARM FRONT CUTS
ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL INTO TN VALLEY REGION WHERE
DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO 50-55F.  MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL IL BUT THIS AREA IS MOVING MOSTLY EAST.  ANOTHER MORE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN NE...MOVING NORTHWARD
AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD.  AN EASTWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS SECOND STRONGER SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY BRING -SHRA AND ISOLD
T TO SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MRNG.  RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SOME INCREASING
WEAK DBZ OVER SOUTHEAST IA. 

THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THIS WEAK WAVE DOES REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVES NORTH BY AFTN. HENCE EXPECT MUCH OF THE
MORNING TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS CWA.  THREAT FOR -SHRA INCREASES DURING
THE AFTN...AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS SHIFTING
NORTHWARD.  HOWEVER STRONGEST MOISTURE PUSH AND CONVERGENCE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN EXPECT INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO GRAZE
SOUTHERN WI.  SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE AND TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF LLJ. HOWEVER YET ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS ALL OF
SRN WI TNGT.  QPF MOSTLY IN THE TWO TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE
THIS AFTN AND TNGT.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NOT LINGER AND
CONTINUE MOVING NWD. 

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWARD LIFTING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING.
MODELS SHOW HEAVIEST QPF DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LIGHTER QPF
NOTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS THE AFTERNOON DRY WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW PRIMARY UPPER LOW/VORT MAX SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS SRN WI WHICH SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHRA GOING
AFTER THE MAIN SLUG OF PRECIP DEPARTS SRN WI. SURFACE WARM FRONT
WILL BE POSITIONED WELL SOUTH OF WI SO A CLOUDY AND COOL EASTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED WITH A LOWER CLOUD DECK/STRATUS LIKELY PERSISTING
ALL DAY.

.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
INITIAL 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ACROSS FAR ERN WI AT THE
OUTSET AND GETS A KICK FROM THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH HEADING EAST
FROM THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS.
PRIMARY SFC LOW HEADS NE INTO CANADA HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING A
SECONDARY LOW TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND THIS
HEADS NE FROM CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPR MIDWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH WAA PRECIP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SO
TRENDED POPS LOWER DURING THE DAY. HIGHEST 925 TEMPS IN THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING. SO EVENING HIGHS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ARRIVING CONVECTION. CWASP
NUMBERS ARE THE HIGHEST DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NAM DOES SHOW
ONE BATCH OF CONVECTION IN THE BETTER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH AND
ANOTHER RIDING TO OUR NORTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE
ECMWF/GEM/GFS SHOW MORE OF A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING THE WHOLE
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO WILL HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS FOR NOW GOING WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS AND WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER
ATTM. IN ADDITION THERE IS AN UPTICK IN 0-6KM SHEAR AND SOME DECENT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT EVOLVE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS
BUFKIT SHOWS CAPE VALUES ROOTED AROUND 900 MILLIBARS PUSHING
1000J/KG. MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SRN 1/2 OF FCST AREA SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SFC LOW PROGGD TO BE VCNTY NRN WI WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO SRN
WI. WL KEEP SOME MRNG POPS IN THE FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM 500
MILLIBAR FORCING AND FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN THOUGH 925 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO 10-13C AND WITH 925 WINDS OF 20-
30KNOTS FROM THE WEST WILL NEGATE ANY LAKE EFFECT AND STILL SEE
MILDER TEMPS.  

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
PROGS ARE STILL SHOWING A RATHER COOL PERIOD SETTLING IN. 500
MILLIBAR FLOW WILL BE STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE WITH A FEW WAVES WHICH ARE RESOLVED DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS
IN TERMS OF STRENGTH AND TIMING. THERE WILL BE SHRA POTENTIAL FROM
TIME TO TIME TIED TO THESE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED REINFORCING SHOTS OF
COOLER AIR. 925/850 THERMAL PROFILE STILL LIKELY TO GET QUITE
CHILLY. THE 925 WINDS REMAIN UP AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/CLOUD COVER AND MIXED LOW LEVELS HARD TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN
FROST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES THROUGH 
MOST OF TODAY. LOWER MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SRN WI AND TAF SITES
TONIGHT. MAY BE A FEW NON-SEVERE T-STORMS AFFECTING TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...GRADUALLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TAKE PLACE 
ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY IN THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES SLOWLY EWD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY ONSHORE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...NOT TURNING OFF SHORE UNTIL
LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

RECENT SATELLITE MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE MI SURFACE TEMP STILL
IN THE LOW 40S AWAY FROM SHORE. EXPECT LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO
INITIALLY PREVENT STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE
SURFACE TODAY INTO THIS EVE.  HOWEVER GUSTY ESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO EVENTUALLY REACH LAKE SURFACE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE MRNG...WHICH
WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS. HENCE PER COORD WITH LOT...WL POST SMALL
CRAFT ADVY BEGINNING AT 06Z FOR SRN ZONES AND 09Z FOR NRN
ZONES...LASTING THRU TUE MRNG. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK 
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 200834
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
334 AM CDT WED APR 20 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING LINGERING -SHRA OVER NORTHEAST CWA TO CONTINUE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z.  OTHERWISE...SHORT WAVE RIDGING SHOULD
BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO BULK OF CWA THIS MRNG INTO THE EARLY AFTN. 
MEANDERING UPSTREAM UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD NEXT
36 HOURS AS LONG WAVE TROF APPROACHES WEST COAST.  POTENT PIECE OF
MID-LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL/ERN
KS AND NE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND GRAZE SRN WI LATER THIS AFTN
AND EVE.  SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL JET REAMPLIFIES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW AND RESULTS IN SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE DURING THIS PERIOD.  ENOUGH AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM AND
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE TO WARRANT CONTINUING CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS
MOST OF CWA FOR ABOUT A SIX HOUR PERIOD.  WL KEEP FAR EASTERN CWA IN
LIKELY WORDING DUE TO STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINING JUST TO
THE WEST. 

MUCAPE INCREASES TO 200-500 J/KG DURING THE PEAK FORCING SO WL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION.  ENOUGH WEAK SHEAR AND
ELEVATED CAPE TO RESULT IN A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN STRONGER
STORMS BUT SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED.  

ENHANCED LIFT FROM SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SPEEDS TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.  DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT.  LIGHTER SFC WINDS
AND DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WL RESULT IN AREAS OF LATE NIGHT
FOG. 

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE UPPER CIRCULATION THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING OFF TO OUR WEST FOR
SOME TIME NOW WILL BE ACROSS IOWA EARLY IN THE DAY. 500 MILLIBAR LOW
PROGGD TO BE ACROSS IOWA AT THE. THE GEM IS THE ONLY MODEL TO KEEP
THE CIRCULATION INTACT AND SHIFT IT SOUTHEAST INTO MO. MEANWHILE THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION OPENS UP THE LOW INTO A POSITIVE TILT WAVE WHICH
CROSSES SRN AND ERN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE LOW LEVELS A
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING THROUGH SRN WI IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WITH SOME TALL SKINNY CAPE NOTED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL
KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS. MODELS SHOW A DRY WEDGE DURING
THE MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO FILL IN WITH THE APPROACHING
MID LEVEL WAVE AND LOWER LEVEL TROUGH. 

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD WITH SOME GUSTY NNE WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS THE COLDEST SOLUTION SHOWING 925
TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR ZERO 0C AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION IN THIS REGARD BETWEEN THE WARMER NAM AND COLDER
GFS. DAVA WORKS IN WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD. SURFACE HIGH
PROGGD TO BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND RIDGING SSW INTO THE MID MISS
VLY.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES
AREA. A RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH A NICE BOUNCE BACK OF THE 925 TEMPS
INTO THE 10-12C RANGE. SO EXPECT TEMPS TO GET BACK INTO THE 60S ESP
FOR INLAND LOCALES. 

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECT THIS TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A
TIGHTENING AND SOUTHWARD SAGGING 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BUT CONSENSUS OF
MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE FORCING DUE
TO THE POSITION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACRS WI DURING THIS PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE UPPER SUPPORT IN PLACE AS WELL BUT FOR NOW LATCHING
ONTO THE SFC/850 LOW TRAVERSING TO OUR WEST AND EVENTUALLY OUR SOUTH.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE ECMWF HANGS ONTO THE PRECIP A BIT LONGER WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
THE SURFACE HIGH IN FASTER AND SHOWS PRONOUNCED RIDGING INTO THE
AREA WITH A DRIER NE LLVL FLOW. AT THIS TIME THE SUPERBLEND POPS
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SHOWERS 
AND A FEW TSTORMS DURING THE AFTN AND EVE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TNGT
TO IFR AS LIGHTER WINDS AND DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEPS INTO SRN
WI...ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY
TO DEVELOP LATE TNGT AND LINGER INTO THU MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...WARM AIR ALOFT WILL CREATE STEEP INVERSION THAT WILL PREVENT 
GUSTY WINDS ABOUT 500 FT ABV SURFACE AND HIGHER FROM MIXING DOWN TO
LAKE SFC. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS THRU TONIGHT.
LIGHTER SFC WINDS AND WARM...MOIST AIR MAY BRING AREAS OF FOG TO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS THU INTO THU NGT. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND GLERL
ESTIMATED LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE LOWER 40S. THESE VALUES CONFIRMED
BY SOUTHERN LAKE MI BUOY 45007 WHICH STARTED TRANSMITTING FOR THE
SEASON TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK 
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 152030
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1230 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THEY ONLY DIVERGE
A BIT AS THEY MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THEY APPEAR TO HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ORIENTATION OVER THE
STATE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
SOLUTIONS TO NUDGE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DATABASE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS SET UP OVER THE STATE
AND WITH A 514 DAM LOW OVER HUSLIA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL SLOWLY
PULL OUT TO THE NORTH TO BE OVER DEADHORSE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LOW THEN ABSORBS A 520 DAM LOW THAT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE
HIGH ARCTIC...AND ROTATES SOUTH TO OVER MANLEY HOT SPRINGS BY
SATURDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA WITH A
549 DAM HIGH MOVING OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE
RIDGE SPLITS AS THE LOW OVER DEADHORSE MOVES SOUTH WITH A 540 DAM
HIGH OVER BRISTOL BAY WITH WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...THE GULF OF ANADYR...AND NORTH TO A 547 DAM
HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC. WEAK RIDGING WILL ALSO PERSIST OVER
THE YUKON TERRITORY AND NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. AT 850 HPA...NOT
MUCH CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A BIT COOLER AS TEMPERATURES
FALL TO AROUND 20 BELOW CELSIUS OVER FAIRBANKS AND AROUND 30 BELOW
OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN.

SATELLITE...SPORT 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMPOSITE OF VIIRS AT
15/1408Z AND MODIS AT 15/1422Z CLEARLY SHOWS A BAND OF STRATUS
EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. IT ALSO INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW. THE GOES PROBABILITY PRODUCT
AT 15/1500Z INDICATES MOST OF THE STRATUS IS OF THE MVFR
VARIETY...THOUGH THERE IS A PATCH OF IFR OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC
PLAINS.

SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AROUND A 999 MB LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN NEAR DAWSON YUKON TERRITORY
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT DISSIPATES. A SHARP RIDGE WITH A 1034
MB CENTER NEAR UMIAT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES WEST OVER THE AREA WITH A 1039 MB CENTER NEAR
BANKS ISLAND...AND A 1041 MB CENTER OVER WRANGEL ISLAND. INVERTED
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY THURSDAY.

ARCTIC SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...RELATIVELY QUIET...NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST OF DEADHORSE AND OVER
THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. SNOW
ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES ON THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE
TO THE EAST OF ANAKTUVUK PASS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO 25 MPH IN
THE PASSES THIS EVENING WILL TAPER DOWN TO VARIABLE AT 10
OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LESS
THAN 10 MPH. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES FOR 205 AND 206
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE BROOKS RANGE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...COOLER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW DRAGS COLD ARCTIC AIR SOUTH. MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE YUKON DELTA...SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUSLIA AND
THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME STRONG NORTH WINDS
IN AND NEAR THE BERING STRAIT THIS EVENING TO 30 MPH WILL TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT...THEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THIS EVENING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS NORTHEAST...TO
BE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...TANANA VALLEY...AND FLATS WEST OF DELTA
JUNCTION...WHITE MOUNTAINS...YUKON FLATS WEST OF FORT YUKON AND
THE UPPER KOYUKUK BASIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER THE VALLEYS WITH UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND BROOKS RANGE. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT...THE EXCEPTION IS THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WHERE
WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 35
MPH. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ205-AKZ206.

&&

$$

SDB MAR 16


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 031245
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
345 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 03/06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MID RANGE...AND
ARE EVEN TRENDING THE SAME DIRECTION IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
STILL NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM RUN TO RUN SO
AGAIN WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...533 DAM HIGH NEAR 80N 140W WILL SLIDE SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO BE 500 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND BY
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST TO MACKENZIE BAY BY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR AND YUKON TERRITORY. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A
515 DAM LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE AND LIES FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC. THE 515 DAM LOW WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWEST TO BRISTOL BAY BY LATE FRIDAY...THEN OVER THE WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY. A 534 DAM HIGH CENTER OVER
BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE PRIBILOFS THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A 538 DAM HIGH OVER SIBERIA
EARLY FRIDAY. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH TO THE NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE SUNDAY WHILE
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AT 850 HPA...GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL 
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 13 CELSIUS
BELOW OVER FAIRBANKS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR
STARTING SUNDAY.

SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE. A RATHER BENIGN
PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS CHANGING AS THE
1037 MB HIGH NEAR 78N 140W WOBBLES AROUND A BIT AND SLIPS
SOUTHWEST TO 77N 155W BY LATE FRIDAY...AND 966 MB LOW NEAR 48N
150W PERSISTS BUT SWINGS A 974 MB LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE
STATE WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS DEVELOPING IN MANY
AREAS OF THE STATE. A 1030 MB HIGH OVER SIBERIA WILL PERSIST WITH
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA TODAY SLOWLY
SLIDING TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO BE OVER THE WEST COAST
BY LATE SATURDAY.

SATELLITE...SPORT AVHRR NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 02/0655Z IS
AGAIN FILLING IN THE GAP TONIGHT BETWEEN THE VIIRS AND MODIS
IMAGES. USING THE AVHRR IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE GOES MVFR/IFR
PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 03/0900Z THEY INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER STRATUS THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTON SOUND ACROSS KOTZEBUE SOUND
THEN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST...PLAINS...AND BROOKS RANGE TO
MACKENZIE BAY...AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR NORTH OF
FORT YUKON.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NOT SEEING ANY REASON FOR THE
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES TO MOVE ON...SO WILL GO WITH
PERSISTENCE THE FIRST COUPLE PERIODS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHTER WINDS
INLAND. WINDS WILL START PICKING UP TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WINTER
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS WINDS KICK UP NEAR 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS FLOATING
AROUND THE COASTAL AREAS. A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING IN THE
BERING STRAIT AND KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION AND SOME DENSE FOG IN THE
BERING STRAIT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE INTERIOR AREAS. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE
GENERALLY OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LIGHTER
VARIABLE WINDS INLAND. COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AS THE COLD AIR IS PULLED SOUTH BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
IS DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDS TO THE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
YUKON FLATS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AS FAR AS
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. INCREASING WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ACROSS THE STATE. GUSTY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 50 MPH.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
WARMING A FEW DEGREES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB MAR 16


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 021130
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
230 AM AKST WED MAR 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AT 06Z AGAINST THE SURFACE ANALYSIS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MID RANGE. THE
SEMI PERSISTENT PATTERN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST TWO AND A
HALF MONTHS DOES TRANSITION A BIT WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE STATE THIS WEEKEND...BUT THEN IT TRANSITIONS RIGHT BACK EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN
SO WILL STICK TO JUST MAKING MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST DATABASE
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...536 DAM HIGH NEAR 80N 160W WILL SLIDE EAST A
BIT AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE STARTS DRIFTING BACK
SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. A 527 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MACKENZIE
BAY TODAY AND MOVE WEST IN THE TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BEFORE
MERGING WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY. A 537
DAM HIGH CENTER OVER YAKUTAT MOVES WEST OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE
THIS EVENING...THEN WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
WITH A 521 DAM LOW OVER KANTISHNA THURSDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH
WILL PERSIST WITH THE LOW MOVING SOUTH OVER BRISTOL BAY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD WEST OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS THE
LOW MOVES SOUTH. AT 850 HPA...GRADUAL COOLING TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK AND WILL SEE THE TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 15
CELSIUS BELOW OVER FAIRBANKS BY SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WEAK WARM WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR STARTING SUNDAY.

SURFACE...BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT
WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE 1042 MB
HIGH NEAR 78N 135W PERSISTS BUT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...A 1027 MB HIGH
OVER SIBERIA BUILDS TO 1036 MB BY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR WRANGEL
ISLAND...AND THE 970 MB LOW NEAR 45N 148W DRIFTS NORTH WITH A 984
MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 48N 135W THURSDAY AND
MOVING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE STATE. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE STATE TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST AS THE LOW IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES NORTH.

SATELLITE...SPORT AVHRR NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 02/0717Z IS
FILLING IN THE GAP TONIGHT BETWEEN THE VIIRS AND MODIS IMAGES AND
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS WITH THE LITTLE LOW SPINNING UP
AROUND MACKENZIE BAY AND SPREADING SOME SNOW TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST. STRATUS EXTENDS WEST TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND ALSO COVERS
MOST OF THE ARCTIC PLAIN...THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE...AND EVEN
THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR NORTH OF FORT YUKON.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE..STRATUS...PATCHY FOG...A FEW
FLURRIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHTER WINDS INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY. 

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES AROUND THE SEWARD
PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEARING OR MOSTLY CLEAR. SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND AREA WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING AS THAT WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LIGHTER VARIABLE
WINDS INLAND. COOLING TREND OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD AIR IS PULLED
SOUTH BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS TO
THE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND YUKON FLATS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...BUT
INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE ALASKA
RANGE PASSES LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 50 MPH. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WARMING A FEW DEGREES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB MAR 16


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 101130
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
230 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AS GOOD AGREEMENT
CONTINUES AND HAS IMPROVED IN THE 24 TO 60 HOUR RANGE. WILL USE
THE SAME FORECAST METHODOLOGY TODAY BY LEANING ON AN EVEN BLEND
FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE TIMING AS
IT MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE STATE
AS IT EXTENDS UP TH WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA OVER THE SOUTHERN
YUKON TERRITORY THEN WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND AND CHUKCHI SEA WITH
540 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE AS A 525 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE WEST TO THE UPPER KOBUK THURSDAY MORNING...AND OVER KOTZEBUE
SOUND FRIDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTH AND DRIFTING INTO THE CHUKCHI
SEA. A CHUNK OF THE RIDGE BROKE OFF AND A 540 DAM HIGH DEVELOPED
OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTH WITH A
SECOND CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC...WHILE
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. AT 850 HPA...WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE HERE SINCE YESTERDAY...A 1046 MB HIGH
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC AS THE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL ROTATE NORTH
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ALL OF THEM DISSIPATING AS THE MOVE OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE MAINLAND. AS THE LOWS MOVE NORTH THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE PINCHES A BIT AND SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER SUMMITS IN THE
INTERIOR.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE IS PRODUCING SOME
CLOUDS...AND IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING A BIT TO THE WINDS WHICH ARE
PRODUCING SOME LOCAL BLOWING SNOW THAT IS COMBINING WITH FOG TO
REDUCE VISIBILITY. GOES IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A NICE BAND OF
STRATUS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT IS MOVING
WEST. THE SPORT MODIS AND NPP VIIRS 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMBINED
IMAGE FROM 09/2023Z...08/2001Z SHOWS A WELL DEFINED STRIP OF
STRATUS THAT EXTENDS EAST SOUTHEAST WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
WINDS INCREASE A BIT TODAY AS THE RIDGE PINCHES SOUTH A BIT SO
EXPECT AND INCREASE IN THE BLOWING SNOW CONTRIBUTION TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A LITTLE INCREASED CLOUDINESS
OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA TODAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS A DECAYING WEATHER FRONT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MID DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.
NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...BUT LOCAL WINDS
GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR AROUND DELTA JUNCTION AND IN THE
ALASKA RANGE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OVER SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 16


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 091157
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
257 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND THEY REMAIN IN
RELATIVE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE MODELS REALLY
START TO DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF SOME OF THE MAJOR FEATURES.
WILL LEAN ON A PRETTY EVEN BLEND FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THEN
LEAN TOWARD NAM THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE
INTERIOR...THEN TOWARD THE GFS WHEN THE NAM RUN ENDS AS THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODELS SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR TO THE WEST. 

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE STATE
AS IT EXTENDS UP TH WEST COAST OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY
THEN WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND WITH 534 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE RIDGE WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE. A
525 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC PLAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN CUT OFF THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST
OVER THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE UPPER KOBUK EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVES WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND BY LATE THURSDAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS FALL TO 509 DAM. A
536 DAM CENTER WILL DEVELOP IN THE PART OF THE RIDGE THAT GETS CUT
OFF AND WILL MOVE OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE
NORTH IN OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE
ARCTIC...WHILE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.

SURFACE...A 1044 MB HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC
AS THE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL ROTATE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ALL OF THEM
DISSIPATING AS THE MOVE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN THIS
MORNING THAT IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS AS IT DRAWS MOISTURE
IN...AND IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING A BIT TO THE WINDS WHICH ARE
PRODUCING SOME BLOWING SNOW THAT IS COMBINING WITH FOG TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY. GOES IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE BAND OF STRATUS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT IS MOVING WEST. THE SPORT
MODIS AND NPP VIIRS 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMBINED IMAGE FROM
08/2159Z...08/2233Z SHOWS A WELL DEFINED STRIP OF STRATUS THAT
EXTENDS EAST WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT
TODAY WHICH WILL HELP DIMINISH THE BLOWING SNOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THE FOG TO CHANGE MUCH SO EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VISIBILITIES ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST LATER TODAY. DO NOT EXPECT
STRATUS TO MOVE TODAY. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING TOO MUCH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
WEATHER NEXT COUPLE DAYS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND. LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THE AREA COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN SOME SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVING INTO THE FAIRBANKS AREA
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A DECAYING FRONT SWINGS NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM TANANA EAST AND NORTH TO THE BROOKS
RANGE THURSDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE AN INCH OR LESS AT
THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...BUT
LOCAL WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR IN THE ALASKA RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 16


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 241630 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1030 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016

.UPDATE...

VISIBILITY SHOULD BE IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE TODAY WITH LIGHT
FOG/HAZE AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES WEST OF MADISON THIS MORNING. THERE WAS
A REPORT OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THE NWS LA CROSSE OFFICE. THIS
LIGHT PRECIP COULD SPREAD INTO MADISON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SHORTWAVE... BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING BASED ON
DRY AIR ABOVE 3000 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

IFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY EXPANDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING.
NOT SURE ABOUT HOW FAR EAST THEY WILL SPREAD... SO BROUGHT UES DOWN
TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT MKE OR ENW. VSBY SHOULD BE IN THE 3 TO
5SM RANGE TODAY WITH LIGHT FOG/HAZE AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES WEST OF
MADISON THIS MORNING. THIS LIGHT PRECIP COULD SPREAD INTO MADISON
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE... BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS HAPPENING BASED ON DRY AIR ABOVE 3000 FEET.

LOW CLOUDS WITH MAINLY IFR CIGS SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. 

&&

.MARINE...

ALLOWED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  

TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER ON LATEST HI RES MODIS IMAGE FROM SAT TO
EVALUATE ICE COVERAGE IN NEAR SHORE WATERS. THINKING THE WINDIER
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WARMER TEMPS HELPED TO
BREAK UP AND THIN THE ICE THAT WAS MORE EXTENSIVE ON THE 19TH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016/ 

TODAY AND TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING
WIDESPREAD STRATUS FIELD ACROSS SRN WI EARLY THIS MRNG.  QUITE A BIT
OF LIGHT FOG REPORTED UPSTREAM ACROSS IA AND SRN MN.  SEE NO REASON
WHY THIS LIGHT FOG WOULD NOT CARRY INTO WRN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG...AS
SFC DEWPTS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES.  MORE TROUBLESOME IS THAT WEAKLY
CHANNELED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY HAS JUST ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
IT TO SHAKE OUT SOME PATCHY FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE UPSTREAM
IN THE STRATUS SHIELD.  LATEST KARX RADAR IN VCP-31 SHOWING
INCREASING LIGHT RETURNS SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. FOR
NOW...WL INCLUDE SMALL CHANCE FOR -ZL AND FLURRIES IN WRN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING.  MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS FOR WRN AREAS IF LOWER
VISIBILITIES SPREAD INTO THIS AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SFC TEMPS
WL REMAIN IN THE MID 20S THRU THE EARLY MRNG.  WEAK LIFT SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA LATER TODAY AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO SRN WI
AHEAD OF MUCH MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE MOVING INTO
THE SRN PLAINS TNGT.  

EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO HANG ON THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PATCHY FOG
RETURNING LATER TNGT AS LIGHT WINDS ACCOMPANY A SURGE OF DEEPER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER MONDAY. 

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IA AND
IL WHILE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION. GREATEST DCVA FROM
THIS WAVE WILL BE FROM THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE SFC AND 850 LOW CENTERS MOVE INTO ERN OR SERN IA BY
LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECTING A SUSTAINED SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. WE WILL NOT BE DISPLACING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SO IT SHOULD
NOT TAKE MUCH TO GENEROUSLY MODIFY THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE
AS THE SFC/850 FLOW ADVECTS THE MILDER AIR AHEAD OF THE APPCH
SFC/850 LOW CENTERS. WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT GETTING UNDERWAY IN
THE MORNING WILL RETAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ZL- AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SYSTEM PRECIP IN THE AFTN. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY COINCIDE
WITH A WINDOW OF TIME WHERE SFC TEMPS AND LACK OF SATURATION
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WOULD WARRANT SOME CONCERN FOR
FREEZING PRECIP. SFC/850 LOW LIFTS NE FROM SRN/CNTRL WI MONDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLLAPSING THERMAL PROFILE AND A
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. APPEARS BEST OVERLAP OF THE COLDER AIR AND
DEF ZONE PRECIP WITH THE WAVE WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN CWA SO SOME
HIGHER AMOUNTS THERE...PUSHING A COUPLE INCHES WITH LESSER TOTALS
IN THE SOUTH WHERE LINGERING WARM LAYER WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS A
BIT.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
COLD ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW AND SECONDARY WAVES PRODUCING POCKETS OF DCVA. MODELS SHOWING
VRY LGT QPF SO CHANCES THERE FOR LIGHT ACCUM SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE
BOOSTED POPS OVER SUPERBLEND. EVENTUALLY WE MAY NEED TO TAKE THESE
POPS HIGHER WITH HIGH CONFIDENT SNOWING/LOW QPF IDEA BUT HAVE KEPT
POPS IN A COLLABORATIVE RANGE.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. MID
LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOK ESP ON THE GEM.
850 WAA MORE PRONOUNCED ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. 925 THERMAL
TROUGH LINGERS ON BOTH MODELS WITH RATHER SLUGGISH RECOVERY. GFS 2
METER TEMPS TOO COLD. TRENDED MORE WITH THE ECMWF/NAM/SUPERBLEND
TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES ON SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN LAKES THIS PERIOD. THE GFS
BRINGS A SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS WITH THE SFC/850 FORCING WHILE MID
LEVEL WAVE IS FURTHER EAST. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A MORE DIRECTLY
IMPACTING SHORTWAVE WITH NO QPF BEING GENERATED. WILL KEEP SMALL
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW. ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE WARMER AND SUGGESTS
MAYBE SOME RAIN MIXING IN WITH ANY PRECIP. GFS STAYS COLD ENOUGH
FOR MAINLY SNOW.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
PROGS ARE SHOWING A SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS WITH WNW 850 FLOW. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW 850 TEMPS PUSHING 10C WITH 925 TEMPS ON THE
WARM SIDE OF ZERO AS WELL. SO COULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S
WITH THIS REGIME AND AGAIN POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR READINGS TO BE
HIGHER THAN SUPERBLEND GUID.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
THERMAL RIDGE PROGGD TO REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO AT LEAST EARLY IN
THE DAY. SOME COLLAPSING OF 850/925 ISOTHERMS WITH SFC FRONT BEING
DRAGGED INTO THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MOISTURE AND 
WARM AIR RETURN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD REST OF SOUTHEAST WI
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY WEAK FORCING MAY SHAKE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR PATCHY -ZL OVER PARTS OF SRN WI...MAINLY THIS MRNG. THINKING
KMSN WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO VERY LIGHT PRECIP THIS MRNG.
THINKING LOW CLOUDS WL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND WL
LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATER TODAY OR TNGT. SOME LIGHT FOG
LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH
LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MID-MORNING 
DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS IN ICE FREE AREAS OF NEAR
SHORE WATERS. VESSEL IN MKE HARBOR REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
18KTS AT 08Z. SRN ZONE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SEVERAL HOURS BUT
WL LET DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE. TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER ON LATEST HI RES
MODIS IMAGE FROM SAT TO EVALUATE ICE COVERAGE IN NEAR SHORE
WATERS. THINKING THE WINDIER CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
AND WARMER TEMPS HELPED TO BREAK UP AND THIN THE ICE THAT WAS MORE
EXTENSIVE ON THE 19TH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 240918
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING
WIDESPREAD STRATUS FIELD ACROSS SRN WI EARLY THIS MRNG.  QUITE A BIT
OF LIGHT FOG REPORTED UPSTREAM ACROSS IA AND SRN MN.  SEE NO REASON
WHY THIS LIGHT FOG WOULD NOT CARRY INTO WRN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG...AS
SFC DEWPTS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES.  MORE TROUBLESOME IS THAT WEAKLY
CHANNELED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY HAS JUST ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
IT TO SHAKE OUT SOME PATCHY FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE UPSTREAM
IN THE STRATUS SHIELD.  LATEST KARX RADAR IN VCP-31 SHOWING
INCREASING LIGHT RETURNS SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. FOR
NOW...WL INCLUDE SMALL CHANCE FOR -ZL AND FLURRIES IN WRN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING.  MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS FOR WRN AREAS IF LOWER
VISIBILITIES SPREAD INTO THIS AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SFC TEMPS
WL REMAIN IN THE MID 20S THRU THE EARLY MRNG.  WEAK LIFT SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA LATER TODAY AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO SRN WI
AHEAD OF MUCH MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE MOVING INTO
THE SRN PLAINS TNGT.  

EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO HANG ON THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PATCHY FOG
RETURNING LATER TNGT AS LIGHT WINDS ACCOMPANY A SURGE OF DEEPER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER MONDAY. 

.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IA AND
IL WHILE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION. GREATEST DCVA FROM
THIS WAVE WILL BE FROM THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE SFC AND 850 LOW CENTERS MOVE INTO ERN OR SERN IA BY
LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECTING A SUSTAINED SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. WE WILL NOT BE DISPLACING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SO IT SHOULD
NOT TAKE MUCH TO GENEROUSLY MODIFY THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE
AS THE SFC/850 FLOW ADVECTS THE MILDER AIR AHEAD OF THE APPCH
SFC/850 LOW CENTERS. WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT GETTING UNDERWAY IN
THE MORNING WILL RETAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ZL- AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SYSTEM PRECIP IN THE AFTN. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY COINCIDE
WITH A WINDOW OF TIME WHERE SFC TEMPS AND LACK OF SATURATION
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WOULD WARRANT SOME CONCERN FOR
FREEZING PRECIP. SFC/850 LOW LIFTS NE FROM SRN/CNTRL WI MONDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLLAPSING THERMAL PROFILE AND A
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. APPEARS BEST OVERLAP OF THE COLDER AIR AND
DEF ZONE PRECIP WITH THE WAVE WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN CWA SO SOME
HIGHER AMOUNTS THERE...PUSHING A COUPLE INCHES WITH LESSER TOTALS
IN THE SOUTH WHERE LINGERING WARM LAYER WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS A
BIT.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
COLD ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW AND SECONDARY WAVES PRODUCING POCKETS OF DCVA. MODELS SHOWING
VRY LGT QPF SO CHANCES THERE FOR LIGHT ACCUM SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE
BOOSTED POPS OVER SUPERBLEND. EVENTUALLY WE MAY NEED TO TAKE THESE
POPS HIGHER WITH HIGH CONFIDENT SNOWING/LOW QPF IDEA BUT HAVE KEPT
POPS IN A COLLABORATIVE RANGE.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. MID
LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOK ESP ON THE GEM.
850 WAA MORE PRONOUNCED ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. 925 THERMAL
TROUGH LINGERS ON BOTH MODELS WITH RATHER SLUGGISH RECOVERY. GFS 2
METER TEMPS TOO COLD. TRENDED MORE WITH THE ECMWF/NAM/SUPERBLEND
TEMPS.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES ON SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN LAKES THIS PERIOD. THE GFS
BRINGS A SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS WITH THE SFC/850 FORCING WHILE MID
LEVEL WAVE IS FURTHER EAST. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A MORE DIRECTLY
IMPACTING SHORTWAVE WITH NO QPF BEING GENERATED. WILL KEEP SMALL
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW. ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE WARMER AND SUGGESTS
MAYBE SOME RAIN MIXING IN WITH ANY PRECIP. GFS STAYS COLD ENOUGH
FOR MAINLY SNOW.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
PROGS ARE SHOWING A SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS WITH WNW 850 FLOW. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW 850 TEMPS PUSHING 10C WITH 925 TEMPS ON THE
WARM SIDE OF ZERO AS WELL. SO COULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S
WITH THIS REGIME AND AGAIN POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR READINGS TO BE
HIGHER THAN SUPERBLEND GUID.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
THERMAL RIDGE PROGGD TO REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO AT LEAST EARLY IN
THE DAY. SOME COLLAPSING OF 850/925 ISOTHERMS WITH SFC FRONT BEING
DRAGGED INTO THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MOISTURE AND 
WARM AIR RETURN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD REST OF SOUTHEAST WI
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY WEAK FORCING MAY SHAKE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR PATCHY -ZL OVER PARTS OF SRN WI...MAINLY THIS MRNG. THINKING
KMSN WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO VERY LIGHT PRECIP THIS MRNG.
THINKING LOW CLOUDS WL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND WL
LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATER TODAY OR TNGT. SOME LIGHT FOG
LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH
LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MID-MORNING 
DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS IN ICE FREE AREAS OF NEAR
SHORE WATERS. VESSEL IN MKE HARBOR REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
18KTS AT 08Z. SRN ZONE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SEVERAL HOURS BUT
WL LET DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE. TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER ON LATEST HI RES
MODIS IMAGE FROM SAT TO EVALUATE ICE COVERAGE IN NEAR SHORE
WATERS. THINKING THE WINDIER CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
AND WARMER TEMPS HELPED TO BREAK UP AND THIN THE ICE THAT WAS MORE
EXTENSIVE ON THE 19TH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK 
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 192109
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
309 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SLIDE BY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS THAT THE BETTER FORCING WILL HAVE MOVED ON BY THE TIME
DECENT SATURATION OCCURS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER...WITH MAINLY
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. MOST PLACES WILL PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST A SHORT
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW GIVEN THAT SOUNDINGS DO EVENTUALLY SATURATE
WITH 300-400 MB OF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH LIFT AT ALL FOR SNOW GIVEN THIS SETUP. 

MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
CURRENTLY SEEING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TRAILING THE SHORTWAVE
UPSTREAM...SO WILL PROBABLY SEE CLOUDS LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. EVEN
SO...WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MILDER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM SRN WI TO OHIO FOR WED NT AND
THU. WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AROUND THE HIGH MAINLY IN THE
925-850 MB LAYER. THIS MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF MO CLOUDY
SKIES DURING THIS TIME BUT NO PCPN. 

FOR THU NT INTO FRI MORNING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BUT THE
STRONGEST PORTION OF IT WILL STAY TO THE WEST AS IT DIVES SWD AND
JOINS THE CIRCULATION OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING
SFC LOW THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY NEWD TO THE
EAST COAST. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
OF LGT SNOW THU NT AND MAY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING. ALSO THE LARGE
LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSING ACROSS THE SE USA WILL TURN THE WINDS TO
NELY FOR FRI AND FRI NT WITH LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCES OF
12-14C. THIS IS MARGINAL FOR LES BUT MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING
SOME LIGHT QPF AND OVERALL CONDITIONS APPEAR A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR LES THAN PRIOR DAYS. THUS INCREASED POPS SOME FOR
FRI AND FRI NT WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUM POSSIBLE. 

TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. 

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WI SAT WITH SLY FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION FOR SAT NT AND SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EWD AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN GREAT PLAINS. THE SFC LOW MAY THEN
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN PASS ACROSS
THE STATE MON NT AND TUE WITH THE MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING A SHORTWAVE TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
AREA TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE WI/IL BORDER. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AND
BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...WITH
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. MAY SEE SOME LOWER CIGS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...

STILL SEEING A GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS VIA THE
LATEST MODIS IMAGE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. WAVES IN
GENERAL WILL BE LIMITED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS...BUT WILL BE ESPECIALLY LIMITED IN THESE ICY AREAS. 



&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 181127
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
227 AM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...MUCH BETTER SOLUTION AGREEMENT THE LAST COUPLE DAYS FOR
THE SHORT TERM AND IMPROVED MID TERM AGREEMENT...AND EVEN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ARCTIC. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE WINDS WELL IN THE SHORT TERM SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A BLEND LEANING A BIT MORE TOWARD THE STRONGER NAM
OUTPUT. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE A PATCH OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW MOVING OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...EVENING
AND OVER THE YUKON FLATS TUESDAY...BUT NONE INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO HANDLE THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY...BUT NUDGE IT WITH THE SREF TO GET
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES THAN WE USUALLY GET FROM THE OTHER
MODELS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LARGE COL OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A 505 DAM LOW OVER
SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST OVER NUIQSUT
THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND A
522 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST BROOKS RANGE MONDAY NIGHT
AND MOVES WEST OVER THE PLAINS AT 521 DAM BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND
TO KOTZEBUE SOUND BY TUESDAY EVENING AT 519 DAM...THEN DISSIPATES
OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ORIGINAL LOW
MOVES TO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND IS
ABSORBED BY A 480 DAM LOW THAT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. A 543
DAM HIGH OVER SIBERIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TO BE OVER 75N
180 BY THURSDAY MORNING. RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA WILL PUSH NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT.
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN AND A 520 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA TUESDAY WHILE A 511 DAM LOW IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. AT 850 HPA...THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM
PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE ARCTIC AND NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE
THIS MORNING...AND EAST OF ANAKTUVUK PASS IT WILL MOVE OVER THE
UPPER YUKON FLATS TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THE AIRMASS MODERATES
PRETTY RAPIDLY WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF 20 BELOW LEFTOVER BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THAT NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION
INTO THE WEEKEND. 

SURFACE...RIDGING FROM A 1040 HIGH OVER SIBERIA REMAINS ACROSS
THE ARCTIC WITH A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON
TERRITORY. THE 1025 MB HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A 1013 MB LOW BANKS ISLAND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER
LOW INTO A 990 MB LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL SWING AROUND THE LOW TO
THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY DRAG EAST.
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO LIE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
WITH SEVERAL LOWS SPINNING AROUND. THE PRIMARY LOW IS A 975 MB LOW
NEAR 50N 155W. A 978 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. A 984 MB
LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO OFF THE COAST OF SITKA
BY TUESDAY MORNING AS IT WEAKENS TO 988 MB...THEN IS ABSORBED BY
THE MAIN LOW. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MAIN LOW WILL BE ABSORBED
BY A 969 MB LOW THAT IS MOVING NORTH AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AT 975 MB. WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND CHUKCHI SEA...THE BERING
STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND SEWARD PENINSULA. 

SATELLITE...MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS IMAGES FROM SPORT AT 18/0852Z
AND 18/0S35Z SHOW QUITE STRATUS OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST EAST OF NUIQSUT THIS MORNING. NO INDICATION
OF IT MOVING...IF ANYTHING IT IS JUST MOVING SOUTH AND WILL PUSH
UP AGAINST THE BROOKS RANGE. EXPECT IT TO STICK AROUND AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING AND TROUGHING
PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. THERE IS ALSO SOME STRATUS
OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EAST OF EAGLE
SUMMIT...AS WELL AS SOME ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA
RANGE.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...MORE OF THE WINTERTIME NORM HERE
WITH THE STRATUS FLOATING AROUND. MAYBE A LITTLE LESS OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS WEST OF NUIQSUT. OF COURSE ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG AND OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE EAST OF
KUPARUK WHERE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15
MPH...AND SOUTH OF POINT LAY ON THE NORTHWEST COAST AND IN THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL OCCUR. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40
BELOW RANGE IN THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20Z
BELOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A LITTLE LULL IN THE WINDS THIS
MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL RAMP BACK UP IN MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER YUKON DELTA
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OR BE
CLEARING TODAY. A FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TUESDAY
EVENING AND SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM GALENA
TO KALTAG. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES
THEY WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN NORMAL AND REMAIN GUSTY IN THE HILLS
NORTH OF GALENA AND OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. LOCALLY
BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES TUCKED INTO THE
UPPER TANANA VALLEY...BUT THEY ARE NOT MOVING...JUST STUCK IN THE
LEE OF THE ALASKA RANGE. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORTYMILE
COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL SPREAD PRIMARILY FLURRIES OVER
THE AREA AS IT MOVES TO THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS AS FAR WEST AS FAIRBANKS...BUT NO SNOW. UP TO
2 INCHES OF SNOW LOCALLY IN THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND THE YUKON
FLATS. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINING ABOUT
THE SAME AS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WINDS ON SUMMITS INCREASING
AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. WEAK TANANA JET CONTINUES WITH
WINDS AROUND DELTA GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217-
AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ230.

&&

$$

SDB JAN 16


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 171106
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
206 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE SHORT TERM THE LAST
FEW RUNS. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT INTO THE MID TERM...BUT MAINLY
BECAUSE THE WEATHER PATTERN IS PRETTY STAGNANT WITH A BIG COL OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. THEY HAVE DONE WELL WITH THE WINDS IN THE SHORT
TERM SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND LEANING A BIT MORE TOWARD THE
STRONGER NAM OUTPUT. 

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LOW OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON YESTERDAY CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AND HAS CONTINUED SOUTHWEST OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE OVER ADAK BY MONDAY MORNING. A LARGE COL
REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO MID
WEEK. A 517 DAM LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEAUFORT SEA THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BANKS
ISLAND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST TO BARROW.
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST TODAY WILL PULL BACK WEST A
BIT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES WEST. RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA WILL PUSH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT THEN
BUILD WEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY. AT 850 HPA...THE 20
BELOW ISOTHERM PUSHES SOUTH OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC AND THE
EASTERN INTERIOR NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER BY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE...NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. RIDGING FROM A 1046 MB HIGH IN SIBERIAN
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER ALASKAS ARCTIC COAST...WHILE A
968ISH MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...SOUTH OF SAND POINT
WOBBLES AROUND. A COUPLE WEAK LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THEN BE ABSORBED BY THE MAIN
LOW...BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME. THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE ARCTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH A 1030
MB CENTER DEVELOPING OVER MACKENZIE BAY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
RIDGING OVER THE ARCTIC WILL PUSH A BIT SOUTH WHILE THE LOW WILL
PUSH NORTH A BIT PINCHING THE GRADIENT OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND
IN AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER TO THE BROOKS RANGE.
EXPECT...STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE
AND CHUKCHI SEA...THE BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND
SEWARD PENINSULA. THE STRONG WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK
BEFORE LAYING DOWN A LITTLE. WITH THIS PATTERN THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND UPPER TANANA
VALLEY...AND UPPER YUKON FLATS TUESDAY.

SATELLITE...MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT AT 17/0808Z
SHOWS MUCH LESS STRATUS THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OVER MOST OF THE
STATE...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY FLOATING AROUND OVER THE ARCTIC
PLAINS AND COAST THIS MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...THE STRATUS CONTINUES...AND IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL CHANGE ANYTIME SOON. EXPECT A FEW
BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...SOME PATCHY FOG...SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...SOME FLURRIES...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS COLD
AIR OVER THE ICE COVERED ARCTIC WATERS MOVES SOUTH. A FEW AREAS IN
THE ARCTIC PLAINS COULD SEE 40 BELOW LOWS BEGINNING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK...ALONG THE COAST LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S BELOW WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS BELOW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTHWEST
WINDS EAST OF KUPARUK. 

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
OVER THE AREA AND HELPED TO MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES A BIT THIS
MORNING...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP THROUGH THE DAY SO EXCEPT
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT OVER THE AREA.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY STRONG NORTH OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND...AS WELL AS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. NO CHANGES IN THE
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE AREA AND WILL KEEP THEM GOING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NOW...BUT SOME WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED INTO MID WEEK. A FEW PLACES ARE REPORTING
FLURRIES...BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY JUST LOFTED SNOW BY THE STRONG
WINDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES TUCKED INTO THE
UPPER TANANA VALLEY...BUT THEY ARE NOT MOVING...JUST STUCK IN THE
LEE OF THE ALASKA RANGE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING...SO CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGER WINDS
TO MAKE IT TO THE VALLEY FLOOR TODAY...SO THE INVERSION WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FAIRBANKS AREA. THE TANANA JET CONTINUES
TO BLOW AROUND DELTA JUNCTION WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
OVER THE SUMMITS EXPECT THE WINDS TO CONTINUE AND BECOME MORE
EASTERLY TODAY. WINDS MUCH LIGHTER IN Z218 SO WILL GO AHEAD AND
DROP THAT FROM THE ADVISORIES. NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN
TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT WHERE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING IT WILL BE A BIT
COOLER.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ208-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200.

&&

$$

SDB JAN 16


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 161106
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
206 AM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE
SHORT TERM AND THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS THEY MOVE
INTO THE MID TERM...BUT THE PATTERN IS NOT DYNAMIC AT ALL AND THE
MODELS ARE MOSTLY SMOOTHING OUT THE RIPPLES IN THE PATTERN THAT
WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THEY ALL AGREE THAT
THERE WILL BE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE UPPER NOATAK
AND KOBUK...LOWER YUKON DELTA...THE CHUKCHI SEA AND THE BERING
STRAIT.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LOW IN THE MIDDLE YUKON THIS MORNING AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST TO OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING....AND
OVER ADAK BY MONDAY MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOW THIS MORNING TO A 523 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES COAST AND A COL WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN
BANKS ISLAND AS IT DEEPENS TO 508 DAM BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN
GETS ABSORBED BY A 492 DAM LOW 400 NM NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND. THE
WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN DIG IN AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY AS COLD AIR IS PULLED
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. THE 540 DAM HIGH THAT WAS OVER NORTON SOUND
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST. WEAK RIDGING WILL PUSH WEST OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE COL WILL EXPAND TO COVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. AT 850 HPA...SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC COASTAL AREAS AND LEAKING
INTO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. 

SURFACE...NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RIDGING FROM A 1043 MB HIGH IN THE SIBERIAN ARCTIC CONTINUES
TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST...WHILE A 974 MB LOW IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC...SOUTH OF SAND POINT...CONTINUES TO SPIN. AS
THE WEEKEND CONTINUE THE RIDGE WILL PUSH A BIT SOUTH WHILE THE LOW
WILL PUSH NORTH A BIT TIGHTENING UP THE GRADIENT FROM THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR WEST. WITH THE GRADIENT BEING PINCHED EXPECT...STRONGER
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE AND CHUKCHI SEA...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN INTERIOR. WINDS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND LAY DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND THE BROOKS RANGE COULD SEE
THE STRONGER GUSTY WINDS INTO MID WEEK AT THIS TIME. ONE THING
THIS PATTERN DOES GUARANTEE IS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID WEEK IF ANY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SATELLITE...MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT AT 16/0725Z
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WIDE SWATH OF STRATUS OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EXTENDING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY...AND THE GOES
IMAGES INDICATE IT IS MOVING TO THE WEST. 

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...LOTS OF STRATUS...PATCHY FOG AND
FLURRIES...RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. WINDS WILL NOT GENERALLY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LOFT THE SNOW AND BRING VISIBILITY DOWN...BUT IT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE SNOW AROUND AND CREATE ISSUES WITH
DRIFTING SNOW AND POTENTIAL SNOW LOADING PROBLEMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE OVER THE COAST
AND PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. WINDS WILL
BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND GUSTS TO
AROUND 55 MPH WILL OCCUR. TEMPERATURES ON A SLOW DOWNWARD SPIRAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NOT CHANGING MUCH FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT QUITE WELL DEVELOPING THE
WINDS. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND UP WITH THE WINDS AND WILL ADD
Z208 AND Z213 TO THE MIX OF WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND HEADLINES
AS WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CREATE PROBLEMS STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS NOT INDICATING THE WINDS ABATING UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY SO WILL PUSH OUT THE END TIMES FOR MOST OF THE HAZARDS.
OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED IN ANY OF THE ZONES. STRATUS WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR MOST
AREAS TODAY...BUT MAY MIX OUT AS THE WINDS PICK UP.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS...STRATUS...AND MORE
STRATUS FLOATING AROUND THE AREA. MOST OF IT MOVED INTO THE AREA
FROM THE YUKON TERRITORY AND GOES IMAGES INDICATE IT IS MOVING
WEST...JUST DO NOT SEE A BACK SIDE TO IT SO EXPECT ITS DEMISE
WILL COME WITH THE INCREASING WINDS ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN A
COOLING TREND FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. STILL DO NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH. SOME STRONGER
WINDS POSSIBLY TO 40 MPH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
SUMMITS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR NORTHWEST OF FAIRBANKS AS THEY
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
EXPECTED AT INDIAN MOUNTAIN...GOBBLERS KNOB AND FINGER MOUNTAIN AS
WELL AS OTHER SUMMITS IN THE RAY MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND AROUND EAGLE SUMMIT. TANANA JET HAS NOT KICKED IN
YET BUT EXPECT IT TO THIS MORNING WITH WINDS PICKING UP
SATURDAY...SO GUSTY WINDS IN DELTA JUNCTION TO 45 MPH AND NENANA
TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ208-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

$$

SDB JAN 16


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 151136
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
236 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAIN TODAY AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 24 HOURS BEFORE
WE SEE DIFFERENCES IN THE MAJOR FEATURES. STILL HAVING TROUBLE
HANDLING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BROOKS RANGE...BUT NOT AS
BAD AS THE SPAGHETTI YESTERDAY. THERE IS MUCH BETTER CONCENSUS ON
THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. PATTERN IS STILL PRETTY CONFUSED SO WILL CONTINUE
TO USE A BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS AND ONLY NUDGE THE CURRENT
FORECAST DATABASE A BIT.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A TROUGH WITH A 524 DAM LOW LIES OVER THE
CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS
MORNING. A RIDGE LIE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WITH 538 DAM
CENTERS OVER WESTERN COOK INLET AND SOUTHERN NORTON SOUND. THE
LOW WOBBLES AROUND A BIT AND MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWEST OVER THE
MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES OVER THE
PRIBILOF ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL GET PINCHED OFF
WITH A 541 DAM CENTER MOVING OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUING NORTHWEST INTO SIBERIA. THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CUTOFF RIDGE WILL START BUILDING BACK OVER THE INTERIOR
SATURDAY AND LIE FROM BURWASH LANDING YT TO KOTZEBUE SOUND BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT 850 HPA...SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES OVER
THE ARCTIC NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN MODELS ARE INDICATING A MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
FOR NOW. 

SURFACE...WEAK NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
1003 MB LOW LIES IN THE NORTHERN GULF. NO MAJOR FEATURES TO REALLY
PICK OUT OF THE GUIDANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME GRADIENT PINCHING AS
THE MAIN LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES NORTH A BIT...SO EXPECT
SOME STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND CHUKCHI SEA...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR. 

SATELLITE...MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT AT 15/0820Z SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS NORTH AND EAST OF TANANA IN THE
INTERIOR...OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND AND THE CHUKCHI SEA...AS WELL AS
THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. HARD TO DETERMINE THE MOVEMENT OF ANY OF
IT AT THIS TIME SINCE THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE IMAGES.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SATELLITE SHOWS THE STRATUS AND
THE GOES IR FROM 15/1030 SHOWS A BIG PATCH OF STRATUS OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC MOVING WEST...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT OR
THE STRATUS GOING AWAY ANYTIME SOON. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHWEST COAST FROM POINT LAY SOUTH TO PICK UP
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING TO NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 25 TO 40 MPH IN THOSE AREAS
WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH ELSEWHERE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM WHAT THE
MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BROOKS
RANGE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND MAY PRODUCE SOME
FLURRIES. WINDS IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA HAVE PICKED UP TO 15 TO
30 MPH GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH IN SOME AREAS EAST OF ANVIK AND WILL
DIMINISH A BIT SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE UPPER NOATAK AND KOBUK
NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY TO 20 TO 45
MPH AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WINDS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF ZONES 210...NORTHERN 212...AND NORTHERN
216 TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH SATURDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...BIGGEST ISSUE HERE IS WHERE IS ALL
THE STRATUS GOING TO GO. BIG PATCHES OF BLACK STRATUS DEVELOPED IN
THE AREA YESTERDAY AND THE 24HR MICROPHYSICS FROM 15/0820Z SHOWS
IT STILL FLOATING AROUND. HARD TO FIGURE ANY MOVEMENT ON IT AT
THIS TIME WITH ONLY A COUPLE IMAGES...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
MOVING ANYWHERE FAST SO EXPECT THAT IT WILL JUST DISSIPATE IN
PLACE EVENTUALLY. OF COURSE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE THIS TYPE OF
STRATUS AT ALL SO WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH IT. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TO 10 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. NO
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR WINDS OVER THE SUMMITS IN THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR NORTHWEST OF FAIRBANKS AS STILL EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE
LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH EXPECTED AT
INDIAN MOUNTAIN...GOBBLERS KNOB AND FINGER MOUNTAIN AS WELL AS
OTHER SUMMITS IN THE RAY MOUNTAINS...THE EXCEPTION HERE IS THEY
MAY NOT GET THAT GUSTY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND EAGLE
SUMMIT. EXPECT THE TANANA JET TO KICK IN LATE TONIGHT ALSO WITH
WINDS PICKING UP SATURDAY...SO GUSTY WINDS IN DELTA JUNCTION TO
45 MPH AND NENANA TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES AROUND FAIRBANKS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS NEAR 15 BELOW...BUT LOOK FOR WARMER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS
AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

$$

SDB JAN 16


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 141142
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
242 AM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 24 HOURS BEFORE WE SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MAJOR FEATURES. THE BIG ISSUE IS
THE HANDLING OF THE LOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND
ITS EVOLUTION AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWEST OVER THE PRIBILOFS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH THE CONFUSED PATTERN OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE MODELS AND NUDGE THE CURRENT FORECASTS A BIT.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A TROUGH WITH A 511 DAM LOW OVER THE BERING
STRAIT LIES SOUTHEAST TO SITKA AND WILL PULL BACK NORTHWEST AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 521 DAM
WITH THE TROUGH ONLY EXTENDING TO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY. THE LOW
WOBBLE AROUND A BIT AND DEPENDING ON THE MODEL WILL LIE SOMEWHERE
OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AT 524 DAM WITH A SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AT 528 DAM. TO THE SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST AND A 538
DAM CENTER WILL DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY OVER SLEETMUTE. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT BREAKS AWAY FROM THE MAIN RIDGE
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR
LATE FRIDAY. CONFUSION WITH THE LOWS OVER THE BROOKS RANGE CENTRAL
INTERIOR CONTINUES...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE LOWS CONSOLIDATING
OVER THE NORTON SOUND REGION AND MOVING SOUTHWEST OVER THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE...A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
WITH WEAK NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A 1003
MB LOW LIES IN THE NORTHERN GULF. A 992 MB LOW WILL DRIFT WEST
OVER KAMCHATKA. A 974 MB LOW LIES JUST SOUTH OF ATKA...A 993 MB
LOW LIES OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...ALL OF THESE LOWS WILL
BE ABSORBED INTO A LOW THAT MOVES FROM 42N 170W TO 48N 152W BY
FRIDAY MORNING...AND TO 51N 156W BY SATURDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSISTS NORTH OF 75N IN THE HIGH ARCTIC.

SATELLITE...MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT AT 14/0917Z
NOT MUCH HELP THIS TIME AROUND OVER THE ARCTIC AS HIGH CLOUDS
MASK MOST OF THE AREA. IT DOES INDICATE A PRETTY GOOD PATCH OF
STRATUS OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND PATCHES OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS
OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS...AS WELL AS
THE LOWER YUKON DELTA.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...PRETTY HARD TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY
WHAT WILL HAPPEN OVER THE AREA...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA...IT IS THE ARCTIC. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WITH SOME
PERIODS OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE AREA. A 1011 MB LOW WILL
MOVE OVER DEMARCATION POINT LATER TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE.
NORTHEAST WINDS PERSIST IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WEST OF KUPARUK.
WITH THE LOW MOVING TO DEMARCATION POINT THE WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY NORTHEAST...BUT WILL SWING AROUND THE DIAL AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST THEN RETURN TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING. 

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...998 MB LOW OVER THE BERING
STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE ENDING
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA AND
DISSIPATES BY FRIDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO MAJOR FEATURES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS ON THE COAST WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND. THE
EXCEPTION ON THE COAST WILL BE THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WHICH WILL
SEE WINDS PICK UP TO 15 TO 30 MPH EAST OF ANVIK LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. ANOTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE THE UPPER
NOATAK...KOBUK NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
THE WEEKEND TO 20 TO 45 MPH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WEAK BAROCLINIC AREA ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
PERSIST WITH IT. A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING AROUND
FAIRBANKS...WITH FLURRIES CONTINUING TO THE NORTH AND EAST WHILE
THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR TODAY...THEN SLOW CLEARING OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST TO 10 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THE
SUMMITS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR NORTHWEST OF FAIRBANKS WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH EXPECTED AT
INDIAN MOUNTAIN...GOBBLERS KNOB AND FINGER MOUNTAIN AS WELL AS
OTHER SUMMITS IN THE RAY MOUNTAINS AND ALL SUMMITS IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS INCLUDING EAGLE SUMMIT WILL SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TANANA JET PICKS UP LATE SATURDAY SO GUSTY
WINDS IN DELTA JUNCTION TO 45 MPH AND NENANA TO 25 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED WHEN THEY DO PICK UP. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS NEAR 15
BELOW... BUT LOOK FOR WARMER CONDITIONS ON THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

&&

$$

SDB JAN 16


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KPIH 110937
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
237 AM MST MON JAN 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SAT IMAGERY...INCLUDING
MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS...SHOWS EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS MORNING AND EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS UP TO THE WYOMING BORDER. OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS SHOW
GENERALLY IMPROVED VISIBILITY OVER LATE EVENING. STILL EXPECT TO
SEE POCKETS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN THIS
MORNING...SO KEEPING DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT TIL 16Z. NAM/GFS
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL COMING OUT OF THIS LOW CLOUD
DECK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DROP TEMPS TO -12C TO -15C WITHIN THE
MOIST LAYER...PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR ICE FORMATION...BUT
ATMOSPHERE LACKS ANY LARGE-SCALE LIFT TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION. MODELS TRACK A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE WEST. MEAN UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY WHILE MODELS PUSH IN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
WA/OR COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THAT NIGHT. HINSBERGER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS FINALLY COMING
TOGETHER ON THU...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ON THE SAME PAGE WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LINGERING INTO FRI. MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE ON SAT WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
ID WHILE THE GFS KNOCKS IT DOWN. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS SPREADING
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HRS
SLOWER. COMPARED TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS IS AN
IMPROVEMENT. PRECIP DIMINISHES SUN NIGHT PER ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
AGAIN FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND SPREADS SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. WILL JUST
KEEP LOW CHANCES IN THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND GO DRIER ON MON THRU MON
NIGHT WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. NOT SEEING ANY MAJOR
CHANGES IN TEMPS. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CIGS AGAIN PLAGUE THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY THIS MORN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED. MAY
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN...BUT WITH NOTHING TO SCOUR OUT THE
MOISTURE...LOW CIGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AGAIN TONIGHT. ONLY KSUN
SEEMS TO ESCAPE THE LOW CIGS...BUT SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE CLDS TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTH. KSUN COULD SEE THE LOW
CIGS EDGE IN BRIEFLY. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR IDZ019-020.

&&

$$


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KSEW 311606
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRINGING HOT TEMPERATURES 
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT 
WEEK...WHEN IT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES 
WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
 
&&

.SHORT TERM...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALMOST DIRECTLY 
OVERHEAD AND 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 590 DM OVER WESTERN WA...EXPECT 
TEMPS TODAY TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE BUNCH...WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 
HIGHS IN THE 90S SEATTLE SOUTHWARD. HIGHS AROUND THE REST OF THE 
AREA WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE SURFACE FLOW IS LIGHT 
NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY FALL AND 
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL 
HEIGHTS WILL DROP A FEW DMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP 
A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY AS WELL...BUT STILL REMAIN VERY WARM. LOWS 
EARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS IN THE PUGET SOUND AREA WILL 
REMAIN QUITE WARM TOO...IN THE MID 60S. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN 
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

RECENT MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING THAT A MARINE PUSH WILL DEVELOP 
SUNDAY EVENING...AROUND THE TIME THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRES. 
GALES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRAIT AND MARINE AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE 
INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THIS WILL START A TREND OF MODERATING 
TEMPERATURES.  JSMITH

.LONG TERM...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN MORE AND SHIFT EWD OVER THE 
ROCKIES BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS SE TOWARD THE PAC NW. 
LOWER HEIGHTS AND ONSHORE FLOW MEAN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 
LOW 80S AROUND PUGET SOUND...WITH 70S ACROSS THE N INTERIOR AND 
STRAIT. HIGHS AT THE COAST MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70. 

MODELS TAKE THE UPPER LOW SWD OFF THE PAC NW AND SRN B.C. COASTS ON 
TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONGER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL 
FINALLY FALL TO THE 70S OVER ALL THE LOWLANDS...NEAR OR EVEN 
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE LOW COULD MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST 
TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY. BY 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IF THE 
LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AS SOME MODELS INDICATE. HIGHS WILL BE 
NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MERCER/JSMITH

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION 
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE 
DRY AND STABLE. 

THERE IS A THIN LINE OF SHALLOW STRATUS ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST 
AND IN THE WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS MORNING...BRINGING 
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD RETREAT OFF THE COAST BY LATE 
MORNING...THEN RETURN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL 
CONTINUE. 

KSEA...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND MOSTLY 4-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOWER PRESSURE EAST 
OF THE CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENTS 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY 
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS EVENING. 
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...AND GALE FORCE WESTERLIES 
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A CRITICAL PERIOD FOR FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES OVER 
ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...WITH VERY DRY AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE 
DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN 
ADDITION...ELEVATED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE FEELING THE ADDED EFFECT 
OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY...WITH BOTH MID-LEVEL AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 
5 CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MODIS IMAGERY AND 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH INDICATE A PICKUP IN THE ACTIVITY 
LEVEL OF ONGOING FIRES IN BOTH OLYMPIC AND NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL 
PARKS SINCE YESTERDAY. WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING FOR 
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING CONSIDERING BOTH 
THE DRYNESS OF AIR MASS AND THE EFFECTS OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. 
THIS IS THE KIND OF WEATHER SETUP THAT HELPS SMALL FIRES GROW TO 
BECOME LARGE FIRES.		HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF	   
     THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

     RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
	 CASCADES AND OLYMPICS ABOVE 2000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT ZONE 150...CENTRAL
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 250838
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER ERN NEBRASKA AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND FASTER FLOW TO THE NORTH...CONTINUE TO
GENERATE LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS FEED OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  WHILE NEBRASKA UPPER
LOW FURTHER WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH...SECOND LOW CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHEAST CONUS IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AREA BY
LATE TONIGHT.  HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER SRN WI INTO TONIGHT BUT
MAY THIN AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS NE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER SWD.

UNDER PARTLY SUNNY TO M/CLDY SKIES AND ELY SFC FLOW...EXPECT SIMILAR
DAYTIME TEMPS TO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER READINGS BY LAKE MI. RECENT
MODIS IMAGERY AND BUOY OBS MEASURED LAKE MI SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.  

KBUU HAS BEEN REPORTING PERIODS OF DENSE FOG SINCE 06Z.  PASSING
SHERIFF REPORTS DENSE FOG VERY LOCALIZED IN THIS AREA WITH PATCHY
LIGHT FOG ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA.  ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
DEWPTS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HIGHER IN ERN CWA SO EXPECT MORE
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.  DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING JUST OFF
SURFACE...FOG MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED
THINNING OF CIRRUS. 

.SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES SATURDAY WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
EARLY SATURDAY WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW...SO NOT CONCERNED
ABOUT PRECIP AT THIS TIME. DID BUMP SKY COVER UP QUITE A BIT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF A LOW LEVEL
CLOUD DECK. LOOKS LIKE MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY
OUT A BIT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE
WARMEST DAY LIKELY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF BRINING IT THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE FRONT NOT REACH ILLINOIS UNTIL EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THE CANADIAN TIMING IS IN BETWEEN...THOUGH MORE
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO
MID/LATE WEEK WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE ARE A LOT OF DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
TEMPS...TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS...AND SO ON FOR THE TUE-THU TIME
FRAME. POPS ENDED UP SPREAD OUT QUITE A BIT GIVEN THE VARIOUS
MODEL SOLUTIONS. GENERALLY STUCK TOWARD THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF
MODELS FOR TEMPS. OVERALL THOUGH...WILL EVENTUALLY SEE COOLER
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... 

LIGHT SFC WINDS MAY ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER VSBYS FROM FOG
THRU EARLY MRNG.  HOWEVER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AFFECTING TAF SITES TONIGHT.  

&& 

.MARINE...

PERSISTENT NORTH TO EAST SFC WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY
BEFORE VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW
20KTS THRU THE WEEKEND.  WITH MOSTLY ONSHORE WINDS AND LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT UPWELLING...FOG...IF ANY DEVELOPS...SHOULD REMAIN
PATCHY. ATWATER BEACH BUOY CONTINUES TO REPORT WATER TEMP AROUND 60
AND LATEST AVAILABLE MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED WATER TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  SFC DEWPTS LIKELY TO REMAIN CLOSE TO LAKE
WATER TEMP REDUCING FOG THREAT. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 241923 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
223 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN REMAINS UNDER WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WITH A 100 KT
JET OVER QUEBEC. UPSTREAM UPPER AND SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO STALL
AND WEAKEN SO PLESANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER
THE REGION FROM UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION. EXPECT CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT IN REGARDS TO FOG. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 3 DEGREES OR LESS. MESO
MODELS ALSO SHOWING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN BRINGING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WELL INLAND SO LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS ALSO POSSBLE IN
THE EAST.

.SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH FROM NEW ENGLAND
BACK WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FLOW ALOFT IS VERY
WEAK AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY
/THURSDAY/ WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS TIME. WE COULD SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THAT DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPS STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. 

THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DISCUSSION MENTIONED THE THREAT OF MORE CLOUDS
FROM THAT SOUTHERN WAVE AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS MORE MODEL 
CONSENSUS WITH THAT APPROACH. THAT WEAK LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
MAKE IT TO ABOUT NORTHERN INDIANA/NE ILLINOIS BEFORE GETTING
PICKED UP BY THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UP HERE AND SHOVED OFF TO
THE EAST. SO WE GET A GLANCING BLOW AND IT SHOULD ONLY HAVE CLOUDS
AS THE MAIN CONCERN. ANY PRECIP...AT THIS POINT...LOOKS TO STAY
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THOSE CLOUDS COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH
MONDAY. TEMPS REMAIN VERY MILD.

.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. 

THE UPPER RIDGING/WEAK FLOW REGIME FINALLY COLLAPSES SOUTH IN
DEFERENCE TO A DIGGING BROAD CANADIAN TROF AND MUCH FASTER
WESTERLY FLOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN TIER OF THE U.S. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. PRECIP
AMOUNTS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANY DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SOME AREAS MAY EVEN STAY DRY WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD ARRIVE BY THIS PERIOD.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. 

THE GFS WANTS TO DRY US OUT THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG SHOT OF H8 WARM/MOIST
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AND IT TAKES ITS TIME
MOVING THROUGH. THUS...WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF IT ENDED UP BE DRY THIS
PERIOD. 

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CONDITIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. A COOL AND MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN FAR EASTERN WI
WILL LIKELY BRING IN FOG FROM THE LAKE ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN
STARTING THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT COULD SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AT MKE...UES...AND ENW AT TIMES DUE TO DENSE FOG. PATHCY
FOG LIKELY ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO UPSTREAM
PRECIPITATION.

&& 

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS 24 HOURS AS A COOL
AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT FOG IS LIKELY
AGAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODIS IMAGERY
SHOWS WATER TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST FROM MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN
SO THIS IS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FOG. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 241537 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1037 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
CONDITIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. A COOL AND MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN FAR EASTERN WI
WILL LIKELY BRING IN SOME FOG FROM THE LAKE ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IT MAY EVEN START
THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA DUE TO UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS 24 HOURS AS A COOL AND
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST FROM MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN SO THIS IS THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /327 AN CDT THU SEP 24 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW
AND BKN-OVC CIRRUS SHIELD LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO TNGT. MAJORITY OF
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY DUE TO DRIER LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW. HOWEVER
BOUTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION LIKELY TO SPEW MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS
ACROSS SRN WI THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT.  MORE WIDESPREAD CIRRUS AND
ELY FLOW WL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR ABV NORMAL FOR 9/24.  

SFC WINDS BRIEFLY TURNED NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KTS DURING WED EVENING
WHICH CARRIED AN AREA OF DENSE FOG AND 1/4SM VSBYS ACROSS THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.  THIS AREA OF DENSE FOG REMAINS TRANSIENT AND IS
MOVING W-NW DUE TO E-SE LOW LEVEL STEERING WINDS.  AREAS OF DENSE
FOG AT 08Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SBM TO JUST WEST OF ETB TO
JUST WEST OF UES TO BUU.  THE FOG HAS NOT YET REACHED MKX WHICH IS
IN FAR EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON CO.  UNFORTUNATELY...HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO OBSCURE WWD MOVEMENT OF FOG AREA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY FOG MENTION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN THE
EAST DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM MARINE LAYER
WHICH HAS PUSHED INLAND. 

SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ELY FLOW RESULTING IN
MOIST MARINE LAYER AFFECTING ERN AREAS.  HENCE WL ADD PATCHY FOG
MENTION AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EAST AND NORTH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH 
CONTINUED QUIET AND MILD WX CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL FLOW VERY WEAK.
IN THE LOW LEVELS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS WITH ESE WINDS. 925
TEMPS BOTH DAYS 16- 17C SO LOW/MID 70S STILL LOOK GOOD.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
SURFACE/850 FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. NOTED AN UPTICK
IN LOW LEVEL RH TO 80 PCT PLUS THIS PERIOD WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SSE. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS ENDS UP BEING A
STRATUS FIELD THAT GETS PULLED NORTH INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL
NOT MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO SKY/TEMPS BUT DID INCREASE A
CLOUDS A BIT MORE INTO THE EAST WHERE THE RH MAX IS FOCUSING.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE A BIT THOUGH THE
BEST FORCING PROGGD TO BE TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO THE THE STRONGEST
MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX. GFS AND NOW THE ECMWF SHOW 925 SW WIND
REGIME WITH WARM 925 TEMPS. DEPENDING ON THE MODELS VALUES RANGE
FROM 19-23C...SO WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PROGGD TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH...THIS LIKELY TO BE A RATHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW 
STILL A LOT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO SPEED OF COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FAST SOLUTION...BRINGING THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING A TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FROPA. ONE
THING THERE IS AGREEMENT ON IS THAT BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE POST-
FRONTAL IN NATURE. THE LARGE DISPARITY IN FRONTAL TIMING CARRIES
WITH IT A HUGE SPREAD IN THERMAL PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH THE GFS
PUSHING A PREFRONTAL 25C AND THE ECMWF WITH A COOLER POST FRONTAL
REGIME OF AROUND 12C. SO FOR NOW WILL BE GOING THE SUPERBLEND
ROUTE AND HOPE THIS TIMING GETS IRONED OUT IN FUTURE RUNS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND MOIST MARINE LAYER
CONTRIBUTED TO AREA OF DENSE FOG THAT MOVED THROUGH ERN TAF SITES
SINCE LATE WED EVE.  DENSE FOG AREA HAS REMAINED TRANSIENT AND IS
MOVING W-NW. DO NOT THINK IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER TO AFFECT KMSN.
08Z SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING MUCH FOG REDEVELOPMENT
YET...HOWEVER LIGHT E-NE FLOW TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MRNG. LATEST
RAP13 DOES SHOW WIND CONVERGENCE OVER SE WI AROUND 12Z. HENCE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE DAYTIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING TO ERN TAF SITES LATER TNGT.

MARINE...ATWATER BEACH BUOY MEASURING LAKE SFC TEMP AT 60F
OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY
IN LAKE SFC TEMP ON WED INTO EARLY THIS MRNG...DEPENDING ON SLIGHT
WIND DIRECTION VARIATIONS FROM NORTH TO EAST.  THE NORTH WINDS
APPEAR TO HAVE CAUSED A PERIOD OF UPWELLING AND COOLER WATER TO
REACH LAKE SFC OVERNIGHT. THESE COOLER LAKE TEMPS CONTRIBUTED TO
AN AREA OF FOG WHICH PUSHED INLAND WED EVE AS SFC WINDS VEERED TO
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TODAY REDUCING THE THREAT FOR MORE
UPWELLING. HOWEVER THE WINDS MAY BACK TO THE NORTH BRIEFLY AGAIN
THIS EVENING WHICH MAY ALLOW ANOTHER BATCH OF FOG TO FORM OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TNGT. OTHERWISE...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
ONSHORE AND LIGHT THRU SAT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 240827
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW
AND BKN-OVC CIRRUS SHIELD LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO TNGT. MAJORITY OF
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY DUE TO DRIER LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW. HOWEVER
BOUTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION LIKELY TO SPEW MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS
ACROSS SRN WI THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT.  MORE WIDESPREAD CIRRUS AND
ELY FLOW WL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR ABV NORMAL FOR 9/24.  

SFC WINDS BRIEFLY TURNED NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KTS DURING WED EVENING
WHICH CARRIED AN AREA OF DENSE FOG AND 1/4SM VSBYS ACROSS THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.  THIS AREA OF DENSE FOG REMAINS TRANSIENT AND IS
MOVING W-NW DUE TO E-SE LOW LEVEL STEERING WINDS.  AREAS OF DENSE
FOG AT 08Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SBM TO JUST WEST OF ETB TO
JUST WEST OF UES TO BUU.  THE FOG HAS NOT YET REACHED MKX WHICH IS
IN FAR EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON CO.  UNFORTUNATELY...HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO OBSCURE WWD MOVEMENT OF FOG AREA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY FOG MENTION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN THE
EAST DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM MARINE LAYER
WHICH HAS PUSHED INLAND. 

SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ELY FLOW RESULTING IN
MOIST MARINE LAYER AFFECTING ERN AREAS.  HENCE WL ADD PATCHY FOG
MENTION AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EAST AND NORTH.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH 
CONTINUED QUIET AND MILD WX CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL FLOW VERY WEAK.
IN THE LOW LEVELS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS WITH ESE WINDS. 925
TEMPS BOTH DAYS 16- 17C SO LOW/MID 70S STILL LOOK GOOD.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
SURFACE/850 FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. NOTED AN UPTICK
IN LOW LEVEL RH TO 80 PCT PLUS THIS PERIOD WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SSE. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS ENDS UP BEING A
STRATUS FIELD THAT GETS PULLED NORTH INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL
NOT MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO SKY/TEMPS BUT DID INCREASE A
CLOUDS A BIT MORE INTO THE EAST WHERE THE RH MAX IS FOCUSING.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE A BIT THOUGH THE
BEST FORCING PROGGD TO BE TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO THE THE STRONGEST
MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX. GFS AND NOW THE ECMWF SHOW 925 SW WIND
REGIME WITH WARM 925 TEMPS. DEPENDING ON THE MODELS VALUES RANGE
FROM 19-23C...SO WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PROGGD TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH...THIS LIKELY TO BE A RATHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW 
STILL A LOT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO SPEED OF COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FAST SOLUTION...BRINGING THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING A TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FROPA. ONE
THING THERE IS AGREEMENT ON IS THAT BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE POST-
FRONTAL IN NATURE. THE LARGE DISPARITY IN FRONTAL TIMING CARRIES
WITH IT A HUGE SPREAD IN THERMAL PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH THE GFS
PUSHING A PREFRONTAL 25C AND THE ECMWF WITH A COOLER POST FRONTAL
REGIME OF AROUND 12C. SO FOR NOW WILL BE GOING THE SUPERBLEND
ROUTE AND HOPE THIS TIMING GETS IRONED OUT IN FUTURE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND MOIST MARINE LAYER
CONTRIBUTED TO AREA OF DENSE FOG THAT MOVED THROUGH ERN TAF SITES
SINCE LATE WED EVE.  DENSE FOG AREA HAS REMAINED TRANSIENT AND IS
MOVING W-NW. DO NOT THINK IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER TO AFFECT KMSN.
08Z SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING MUCH FOG REDEVELOPMENT
YET...HOWEVER LIGHT E-NE FLOW TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MRNG. LATEST
RAP13 DOES SHOW WIND CONVERGENCE OVER SE WI AROUND 12Z. HENCE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE DAYTIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING TO ERN TAF SITES LATER TNGT.

&&

.MARINE...ATWATER BEACH BUOY MEASURING LAKE SFC TEMP AT 60F
OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY
IN LAKE SFC TEMP ON WED INTO EARLY THIS MRNG...DEPENDING ON SLIGHT
WIND DIRECTION VARIATIONS FROM NORTH TO EAST.  THE NORTH WINDS
APPEAR TO HAVE CAUSED A PERIOD OF UPWELLING AND COOLER WATER TO
REACH LAKE SFC OVERNIGHT. THESE COOLER LAKE TEMPS CONTRIBUTED TO
AN AREA OF FOG WHICH PUSHED INLAND WED EVE AS SFC WINDS VEERED TO
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TODAY REDUCING THE THREAT FOR MORE
UPWELLING. HOWEVER THE WINDS MAY BACK TO THE NORTH BRIEFLY AGAIN
THIS EVENING WHICH MAY ALLOW ANOTHER BATCH OF FOG TO FORM OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TNGT. OTHERWISE...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
ONSHORE AND LIGHT THRU SAT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK 
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 232025
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WEAK MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE REGION AS 100KT
JET SHIFTS EAST OVER EASTERN CANADA. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. CIRRUS
CLOUDS LIKELY MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST CWA DUE TO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING FOG TONIGHT COMING IN FROM THE
LAKE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENT OF ANY FOG DUE TO
THE INFLUX OF DRIER SOUTHEAST FLOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MENTION OF FOG
TO THE FAR NORTHEAST AREA WHERE THERE IS THE GREATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. DENSE FOG AGAIN LIKELY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

WEAK MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION/VORTICITY MAX OVER WESTERN IOWA SHEARS
OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. ARCING THE JET STREAM WELL NORTH INTO CANADA. WITH
THE STORM TRACK FOLLOWING THE UPPER JET WELL NORTH...WESTERN FLANK
OF BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
KEEPING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN UNDER A DRY SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW.

THIS DRY FLOW WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWARD SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION
SHIELD AROUND CUT-OFF CLOSED LOW DRIFTING NWWD FROM THE SE U.S. TO
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.  

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH FRIDAY 925 MB TEMPS ONLY A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...THEN BACK UP FOR SATURDAY. THIS
BRINGS MID-70 HIGHS INLAND ON FRIDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
SATURDAY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW...THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S BOTH DAYS. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL ALSO BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. 

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM 

MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AS A SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THAT INDUCES A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DIGS A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER NEUTRALLY-TILTED WAVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHARPER SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THAT DRAGS A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS SRN
WI WHILE THE OTHER MODELS KEEP PCPN LIMITED TO NORTHERN WI WHERE
BOUNDARY STALLS/WASHES OUT...AWAITING A NEGATIVELY-TILTED WAVE TO
SWING THROUGH...DROPPING THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE DIFFERING SCENARIOS ALSO
HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AS ECMWF DROPS THICKNESSES FROM 570
DM MONDAY TO BETWEEN 558 AND 561 DM BY TUESDAY AM...WHILE THE SLOWER
WARMER GFS KEEPS THICKNESSES AT OR ABOVE 570 DM UNTIL THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
 
WILL FOLLOW BLENDED SOLUTION THAT BRINGS SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN
MAINLY TO THE NE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE ENTIRE CWA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
SW WEDNESDAY ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WARM-AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN
PCPN IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE FASTER
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG TONIGHT IN
THE EAST COMING OFF THE LAKE MAINLY FROM MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRIER
SOUTHEAST FLOW. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WOULD AFFECT TAF SITES
AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST WI AND WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO CENTRAL WI ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE... SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING MAINLY MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND FORECAST DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED SOME FOG OR HAZE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SHEBOYGAN
COUNTY NEARSHORE AREA AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN THAT AREA SO FOR NOW DECIDED TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE SHEBOYGAN
COUNTY NEARSHORE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REM


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 231538 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1038 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG TONIGHT IN THE EAST COMING OFF THE
LAKE...HOWEVER THINKING IT IS NOT LIKELY SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO DRY. BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL WI BUT WILL THEY WILL BE LIMITED
TO SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WI DUE TO DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
THINKING IT IS NOT LIKELY SINCE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO DRY. MODIS
IMAGERY SHOWING WATER TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S NEAR THE SHORE TO MID
50S NEAR THE OPEN WATER WHICH IS WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF FORECAST DEW
POINTS...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / 

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS.  OTRW...WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG TRANSITIONING BOUNDARY/REMNANTS OF FRONT/
CONTRIBUTING TO SCT-BKN STRATOCU/ALTOCU OVER CENTRAL WI.  THESE MID
CLOUDS BRUSHING FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA.  SC MAY EXPAND NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT GENERAL DECREASING TREND OF 925-850RH EXPECTED
TODAY FROM BOTH HRRR AND RAP.  ENUF LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH TO ALLOW
CU DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH AND WEST. 
OTHER CONCERN IS UPSTREAM CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM PLAINS CONVECTION. 
LIKELY THAT FIRST BATCH OF CIRRUS KNOCKING ON DOOR OF WEST
CENTRAL WI WL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF SRN WI THIS MRNG BEFORE
COMPLETELY THINNING. MORE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER WRN IA/MN
EXPECTED LATER TODAY WHICH WILL GENERATE ANOTHER SWATH OF CIRRUS
LIKELY TO AFFECT PARTS OF SRN WI LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
POTENTIAL CLOUDS AND MORE SOUTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LEVELS REACHED ON TUE.

INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVANCING INTO SRN WI FOR TONIGHT. 
HENCE HELD BACK ON FOG MENTION TONIGHT DESPITE MOST MESO MODELS
SHOWING DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER ERN CWA AFT MIDNIGHT.  BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...AND AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
DRY WITH EACH WARM...MILD DRY DAY.  ONE FLY IN OINTMENT IS LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW POSSIBLY BRINGING IN MOISTER MARINE LAYER.
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE LOWER ON FOG THREAT IN ERN CWA LATER TNGT. 

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
500 MILLIBAR FLOW REGIME SHOWS A RATHER CHAOTIC VORT REGIME
WITHIN THE OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL IN ALL THE DRY
LOW LEVEL E-SE FLOW WITH SFC/850 ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY
LOOK. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO SHOWING A VRY DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS
SHOWS MORE MOISTURE AOA 15K FEET. NAM EVEN DRIER.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH 
QUIET AND MILD PATTERN PERSISTS. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY
SETTING UP MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO
BE SUNDAY AS 925 TEMPS GET CLOSE TO 20C.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW 
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN SLOWER THAN THE PRIOR RUN...AND KEEPS
SRN WI DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GEM LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE
ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL SPEED BUT THE 00Z GFS IS STILL ABOUT
A DAY BEHIND THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS ON
MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ALREADY SHOWING CAA THIS PERIOD. SO STILL SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES TO GET RESOLVED WITH RESPECT TO FROPA TIMING...BUT
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF
IS INDEED TRENDING SLOWER BUT STILL A WIDE GAP REMAINS. GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE
OUT THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SOME LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT TAF SITES EARLY 
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A VFR PERIOD EXPECTED WITH MORE
SE WINDS. SOME CONCERN OVER THREAT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG IN ERN
AREAS LATER TONIGHT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

MARINE...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ZONE /LMZ643/ DUE 
TO COOLER LAKE WATER LOCATED IN THIS AREA AS SHOWN BY MODIS IMAGERY
FROM AROUND 16Z/TUE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WNDS WL BECOME MORE E
TO NE AND MAY ALLOW THE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR A TIME THIS 
MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TONIGHT OVER MORE OF THE NEARSHORE
AREA.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 230821
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
321 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS.  OTRW...WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG TRANSITIONING BOUNDARY/REMNANTS OF FRONT/
CONTRIBUTING TO SCT-BKN STRATOCU/ALTOCU OVER CENTRAL WI.  THESE MID
CLOUDS BRUSHING FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA.  SC MAY EXPAND NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT GENERAL DECREASING TREND OF 925-850RH EXPECTED
TODAY FROM BOTH HRRR AND RAP.  ENUF LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH TO ALLOW
CU DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH AND WEST. 
OTHER CONCERN IS UPSTREAM CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM PLAINS CONVECTION. 
LIKELY THAT FIRST BATCH OF CIRRUS KNOCKING ON DOOR OF WEST
CENTRAL WI WL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF SRN WI THIS MRNG BEFORE
COMPLETELY THINNING. MORE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER WRN IA/MN
EXPECTED LATER TODAY WHICH WILL GENERATE ANOTHER SWATH OF CIRRUS
LIKELY TO AFFECT PARTS OF SRN WI LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
POTENTIAL CLOUDS AND MORE SOUTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LEVELS REACHED ON TUE.

INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVANCING INTO SRN WI FOR TONIGHT. 
HENCE HELD BACK ON FOG MENTION TONIGHT DESPITE MOST MESO MODELS
SHOWING DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER ERN CWA AFT MIDNIGHT.  BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...AND AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
DRY WITH EACH WARM...MILD DRY DAY.  ONE FLY IN OINTMENT IS LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW POSSIBLY BRINGING IN MOISTER MARINE LAYER.
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE LOWER ON FOG THREAT IN ERN CWA LATER TNGT. 

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
500 MILLIBAR FLOW REGIME SHOWS A RATHER CHAOTIC VORT REGIME
WITHIN THE OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL IN ALL THE DRY
LOW LEVEL E-SE FLOW WITH SFC/850 ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY
LOOK. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO SHOWING A VRY DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS
SHOWS MORE MOISTURE AOA 15K FEET. NAM EVEN DRIER.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH 
QUIET AND MILD PATTERN PERSISTS. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY
SETTING UP MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO
BE SUNDAY AS 925 TEMPS GET CLOSE TO 20C.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW 
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN SLOWER THAN THE PRIOR RUN...AND KEEPS
SRN WI DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GEM LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE
ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL SPEED BUT THE 00Z GFS IS STILL ABOUT
A DAY BEHIND THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS ON
MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ALREADY SHOWING CAA THIS PERIOD. SO STILL SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES TO GET RESOLVED WITH RESPECT TO FROPA TIMING...BUT
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF
IS INDEED TRENDING SLOWER BUT STILL A WIDE GAP REMAINS. GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE
OUT THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SOME LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT TAF SITES EARLY 
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A VFR PERIOD EXPECTED WITH MORE
SE WINDS. SOME CONCERN OVER THREAT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG IN ERN
AREAS LATER TONIGHT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

&&

.MARINE...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ZONE /LMZ643/ DUE 
TO COOLER LAKE WATER LOCATED IN THIS AREA AS SHOWN BY MODIS IMAGERY
FROM AROUND 16Z/TUE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WNDS WL BECOME MORE E
TO NE AND MAY ALLOW THE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR A TIME THIS 
MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TONIGHT OVER MORE OF THE NEARSHORE
AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK 
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 221609 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1109 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

.UPDATE...

AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WAS SLOWLY MIXING OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AS IT MOVED INTO
DRIER AIR TO THE EAST. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 850 MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS FROM MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR TO THE EAST SHOULD LIMIT
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT. 

HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TRACK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...GIVEN 925
MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS. LAKE BREEZE WILL COOL THINGS
OFF SOMEWHAT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER AT
MADISON AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP AT WAUKESHA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. VFR CATEGORY CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED. MILWAUKEE
AND KENOSHA MAY NOT SEE THIS DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL SEE SOUTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOP WITH LAKE BREEZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AT MADISON. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY. THE
EASTERN SITES MAY SEE THESE CLOUDS MOVE IN AS WELL TONIGHT AND
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.

LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT TAF SITES IN THE 08Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY PERIOD. MVFR
TO IFR CATEGORY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT MADISON AND KENOSHA...MORE
VFR/MVFR AT MILWAUKEE AND WAUKESHA. IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER THERE IS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. 

.MARINE...

SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...WITH SOME MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE WATER. DEW POINTS
DO NOT GET ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SO NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015/ 

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

LIGHT WINDS AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM MARINE LAYER CAUSING FOG IN SOME 
COUNTIES ALONG THE LAKESHORE.  HOWEVER WEBCAMS SHOW THE FOG REMAINS 
QUITE PATCHY.  FURTHER INLAND...ANY FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 
SUSCEPTIBLE LOW AREAS AND WI RIVER VALLEY.  MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY 
IS UPSTREAM STRATUS APPROACHING SOUTHWEST WI FROM ERN IA.  STRATUS 
WELL DEPICTED BY HIGHER RH IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ON ALL SHORT TERM 
GUIDANCE.  FLOW AT THIS LEVEL CONTINUES TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST 
THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN AND BACKING BACK TO THE 
SOUTH.  11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS RECENT THIN SPOTS/HOLES IN THE 
STRATUS FIELD FARTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL IA...BUT SCT-BKN STRATUS 
STILL EXPANDING EAST TOWARD SOUTHWEST WI/FAR NW IL.  ALL GUIDANCE 
CARRIES HIGHER RH INTO NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING...AND SOME ACROSS 
THE EAST THIS AFTN.  HIGHER RH WILL BE FIGHTING DRY AIR OVER THE 
AREA BUT THINK FAR NORTHWEST CWA WILL HAVE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN 
TODAY.  CUT MAX TEMP SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHWEST AS WELL DUE TO THE 
EXPECTED CLOUDS.  CONFIDENCE LOW ON HOW FAR EAST BKN CLOUDS WL TRACK 
TODAY...BUT COULD END UP FROM SBM TO JUST WEST OF MKE BEFORE 
THINNING.  

UPSTREAM WEAK CDFNT OVER MN WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES 
SLOWLY EWD TODAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL WI TNGT.  WEAK 
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THIS FRONT MAY 
RESULT IN MORE STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...OR 
STRATUS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.  LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 
SHOULD ALSO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS WITHOUT 
THICKER STRATUS.  DUE TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE ABV 5K FT AND 
EXTREMELY WEAK FORCING...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. 

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SAGS INTO SRN WI. MID LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES.
DRY SE FEED CONTINUES WITH SURFACE/850 ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. WILL GO
WITH THE DRY LOOK PER THE GFS/ECMWF.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
500 MILLIBAR FLOW REGIME SHOWS A RATHER CHAOTIC VORT REGIME
WITHIN THE OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL IN ALL THE DRY SE
FLOW WITH LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AND STARTS TO HEAD
INTO THE EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY. 00Z ECMWF A BIT QUICKER ON
APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR WEST...BUT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
WITH A LITTLE UPTICK IN 925 WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WITH A BIT OF A BOOST IN THE 925 TEMPS AS WELL.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW 
00Z ECMWF CONTINUES A QUICKER PACE TO APPCH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GENERATING SOME SHRA WITH FROPA. MEANWHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH FRONT HANGING BACK IN THE PLAINS AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WI WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
HAS IT INTO THE OH VLY. WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID FOR
NOW WHICH IS LEANING TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...UPSTREAM VFR STRATUS OVER IA MOVING TOWARD 
SOUTHERN WI...AND EXPECTING SCT-BKN ST TO AFFECT KMSN FOR A TIME
TODAY. POSSIBLE THAT STRATUS BEGINS TO AFFECT ERN TAF SITES THIS
AFTN AND EVENING. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KENW BUT WEBCAMS
SHOW THIS FOG TO BE VERY PATCHY. FOG SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFT 12Z BUT MORE PATCHY FOG LIKELY TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHTER
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
STRATUS MAY HANG ON OR EXPAND ACROSS SRN WI TNGT AS WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

MARINE...MODIS IMAGE FROM AROUND 17Z/21 SHOW NEARSHORE LAKE SFC 
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER EAST
OF SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. WL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVER NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS WEAK SFC FRONT BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF SHEBOYGAN TONIGHT AND SURFACE MOISTURE
INCREASES. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 220830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

LIGHT WINDS AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM MARINE LAYER CAUSING FOG IN SOME 
COUNTIES ALONG THE LAKESHORE.  HOWEVER WEBCAMS SHOW THE FOG REMAINS 
QUITE PATCHY.  FURTHER INLAND...ANY FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 
SUSCEPTIBLE LOW AREAS AND WI RIVER VALLEY.  MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY 
IS UPSTREAM STRATUS APPROACHING SOUTHWEST WI FROM ERN IA.  STRATUS 
WELL DEPICTED BY HIGHER RH IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ON ALL SHORT TERM 
GUIDANCE.  FLOW AT THIS LEVEL CONTINUES TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST 
THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN AND BACKING BACK TO THE 
SOUTH.  11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS RECENT THIN SPOTS/HOLES IN THE 
STRATUS FIELD FARTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL IA...BUT SCT-BKN STRATUS 
STILL EXPANDING EAST TOWARD SOUTHWEST WI/FAR NW IL.  ALL GUIDANCE 
CARRIES HIGHER RH INTO NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING...AND SOME ACROSS 
THE EAST THIS AFTN.  HIGHER RH WILL BE FIGHTING DRY AIR OVER THE 
AREA BUT THINK FAR NORTHWEST CWA WILL HAVE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN 
TODAY.  CUT MAX TEMP SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHWEST AS WELL DUE TO THE 
EXPECTED CLOUDS.  CONFIDENCE LOW ON HOW FAR EAST BKN CLOUDS WL TRACK 
TODAY...BUT COULD END UP FROM SBM TO JUST WEST OF MKE BEFORE 
THINNING.  

UPSTREAM WEAK CDFNT OVER MN WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES 
SLOWLY EWD TODAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL WI TNGT.  WEAK 
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THIS FRONT MAY 
RESULT IN MORE STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...OR 
STRATUS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.  LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 
SHOULD ALSO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS WITHOUT 
THICKER STRATUS.  DUE TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE ABV 5K FT AND 
EXTREMELY WEAK FORCING...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. 

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SAGS INTO SRN WI. MID LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES.
DRY SE FEED CONTINUES WITH SURFACE/850 ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. WILL GO
WITH THE DRY LOOK PER THE GFS/ECMWF.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
500 MILLIBAR FLOW REGIME SHOWS A RATHER CHAOTIC VORT REGIME
WITHIN THE OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL IN ALL THE DRY SE
FLOW WITH LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AND STARTS TO HEAD
INTO THE EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY. 00Z ECMWF A BIT QUICKER ON
APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR WEST...BUT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
WITH A LITTLE UPTICK IN 925 WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WITH A BIT OF A BOOST IN THE 925 TEMPS AS WELL.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW 
00Z ECMWF CONTINUES A QUICKER PACE TO APPCH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GENERATING SOME SHRA WITH FROPA. MEANWHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH FRONT HANGING BACK IN THE PLAINS AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WI WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
HAS IT INTO THE OH VLY. WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID FOR
NOW WHICH IS LEANING TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...UPSTREAM VFR STRATUS OVER IA MOVING TOWARD 
SOUTHERN WI...AND EXPECTING SCT-BKN ST TO AFFECT KMSN FOR A TIME
TODAY. POSSIBLE THAT STRATUS BEGINS TO AFFECT ERN TAF SITES THIS
AFTN AND EVENING. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KENW BUT WEBCAMS
SHOW THIS FOG TO BE VERY PATCHY. FOG SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFT 12Z BUT MORE PATCHY FOG LIKELY TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHTER
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
STRATUS MAY HANG ON OR EXPAND ACROSS SRN WI TNGT AS WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...MODIS IMAGE FROM AROUND 17Z/21 SHOW NEARSHORE LAKE SFC 
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER EAST
OF SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. WL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVER NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS WEAK SFC FRONT BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF SHEBOYGAN TONIGHT AND SURFACE MOISTURE
INCREASES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 181506 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1006 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.UPDATE...

A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON LEADING
EDGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT. NOT ANTICIPATING THESE CLOUDS TO BE
ENOUGH TO DISRUPT HIGH TEMPS THOUGH...SO LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN
CONCERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...LIKELY RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 30-40 KT
FROM SFC TO 2 KFT. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO INCLUDE THIS IN NEXT TAF
PACKAGE.

WINDS ALOFT WILL THEN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY...SO A PRETTY
GUSTY DAY IS EXPECTED. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH...THOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP GIVEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN LOWER
LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON.  DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TROF IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GTLAKES TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.  A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.  

MODIS IMAGERY FROM LATE SATURDAY MEASURED RATHER HOMOGENEOUS LAKE
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 50S...WHICH IS 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN
SEVERAL DAYS AGO.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS TO MIX DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE MONDAY
MORNING AS TEMPS WARM DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  CURRENTLY
HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVY IN EFFECT...BUT MAY NEED TO UPGRADE TO A GALE
WARNING AFTER EXAMINING NEW FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY.  GALE WARNING
ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR OPEN WATERS. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015/ 

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
AREA...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
WEST...AS THE UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT WHILE FLATTENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE.

700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TONIGHT...BUT IS STILL WEAK.
SEVERAL BANDS OF HIGHER 700 MB RH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
RH INCREASING TO AROUND 70 PCT IN THE BAND LATER TONIGHT. THE
LOWER LEVELS ARE DRY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY
CUMULUS POTENTIAL.

THE 850 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY...WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEY SHOW THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING MONDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS MIXING DOWN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS...WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITHIN THE PATTERN. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS ARE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA ABOVE 850 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING
IN THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE MOISTURE CONTENT THAN THE GFS. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA GET CLIPPED BY A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. 

NAM/ECMWF SHOW LIGHT QPF IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MORE WIDESPREAD. A
LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE IS SHOWING UP ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS...LITTLE
TO NONE ON THE GFS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE NORTH AND EAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND LEAVE
THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...LINGERING TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. SOME ELEVATED CAPE LINGERS ON
NAM SOUNDINGS...LESS SO ON GFS SOUNDINGS. FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE
FIELDS ARE MODEST ON NAM/GFS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
AREA. 

500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM DOES SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. CONTINUED POPS FOR SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED IN LATER
FORECASTS IF THIS WET LOOK TO THE MODELS CONTINUES. MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY PER GFS/ECMWF
OUTPUT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE THAN THE ECMWF. CONTINUED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THE EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS MAY
NEED TO BE REMOVED IN LATER FORECASTS...AS MODELS ARE NOW DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. 

GFS IS QUICKER WITH NEXT SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THAN THE ECMWF. USED CONSENSUS BLENDED MODEL POPS AND TEMPERATURES
THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. 

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH A LARGE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.

THE 850 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE MUCH FASTER AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 

THERE WILL BE A LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL BEGINNING JUST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AS WINDS AROUND 1500 FT INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY RISING LATE...THE WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL IS
MORE BORDERLINE.

MARINE...

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT...AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY 
     FOR LMZ646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY 
     FOR LMZ644-645.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY 
     FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 161824 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1224 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.UPDATE...

BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN UPSTREAM
SHOWERS. TEMPS HAVE LIKELY PEAKED AT THIS POINT...WITH CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MID-AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CIGS
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOWER CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST
PLACES LIKELY IFR BY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CIGS WILL THEN HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
DECREASE INTO THE EVENING...WITH A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY MORNING...PERSISTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

A 60 KNOTS LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT MIXING
THOUGH...LIKELY CAPPING THE HIGHER END GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AT THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY TO KEEP
MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OUT OF TAFS. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015/ 

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF UPSTREAM AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROF
WILL PULL INCREASING DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  COLUMN PWAT NEARLY DOUBLES
IN NEXT 24 HOURS TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTHWARD INTO IA/MN AHEAD OF STRONGER DAKOTAS WAVE. SEVERAL WEAKER
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF -SHRA TODAY.
THE FIRST HAS BEEN PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED -SHRA IN
THE SOUTHEAST CWA OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOULD END EARLY BUT EXPECT
UPSTREAM STRONGER WAVE OVER NRN MO/WRN IA AREA TO TRIGGER MORE -SHRA
OVER SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. SOUTH CENTRAL WI WILL BE
CLOSER TO DEEP MOISTURE FEED AND HAS BETTER CHANCE FOR -SHRA LATER
TODAY. LIKELY TO BE A BREAK IN THE -SHRA THREAT FROM LATE AFTN THRU
THE EVE BUT WITH PERSISTENT WEAK ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCE FOR -SHRA
IN THRU THE LATE NGT. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS INTO SRN WI LATE
TONIGHT RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD T.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES TUESDAY MORNING WILL
SWING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A SURGE OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE
OF A STRONG 50+ KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK... BUT THE STRONG LLJ FORCING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD AID
IN PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDER. THE INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BLUSTERY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH.
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. 

DRIER AND COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
IN SOUTHERN WI WED MORNING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW.
LOOK FOR RAIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY. BY WED AFTERNOON...
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO HIGHER MIXING AND THUS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. 

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL
BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI ON THU. THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW WED NIGHT AND
THU... BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR SNOW. IF IT SNOWS... A HALF INCH OR LESS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ON
GRASSY AREAS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. 

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DROPS OUT OF
PHASE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE ECMWF... BUT STAYS IN PHASE
WITH THE GFS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI NIGHT. THE
CANADIAN MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE LATTER TWO MODELS PRODUCE
A SWATH OF SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WI FRI NIGHT WHILE THE ECWMF KEEPS US
DRY. THE MODELS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO FLIP FLOP WITH THIS FORECAST A
COUPLE MORE TIMES BEFORE COMING INTO AGREEMENT DUE TO THE NATURE OF
THE WEAK UPPER LOW BEHAVIOR... SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE VERY LOW. 

THE GFS AND ECWMF BECOME COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE IN THE LATTER
PERIODS AND THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST DO NOT HOLD
ANY WEIGHT. THE ECWMF FAVORS A WARM SOLUTION WITH RAIN SHOWERS
WITHIN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
STATES. THE GFS HOLDS ONTO COLD AND FAIRLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DUE TO
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN AND
MAY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR.  THIS LOWER CIGS MAY NOT RECUPERATE DURING
THE LATE AFTN AND EVE AS -SHRA WANE BUT PERSISTENT SLY WINDS
MAINTAIN DEEPER MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE REGION. CIGS MAY DROP TO
IFR LEVELS LATE TNGT AS MORE WIDESPREAD -RA SPREADS TOWARD/INTO SRN
WI. 

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN TAKE A NORTHEAST TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SSE WINDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AND BUILDING WAVES.
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING
POSSIBLE GALE FORCE GUSTS.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED
FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A GALE WATCH THAT
WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS TURN TO THE
WEST AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.  

LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND PORT WASHINGTON INFOS MEASURING LAKE SFC
TEMP IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FARTHER
SOUTH.  SOME FOG MAY HAVE TIME TO DEVELOP BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
WARMER...MOIST AIR SURGES ACROSS LAKE MI AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE.  

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR 
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY 
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 161527
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1027 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...ADVANCING PRECIPITATION RUNNING INTO
LINGERING DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THIS RAIN AREA INTO SRN WI THIS
AFTN. CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LOWER BUT EXPECT MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR CIGS TO EVOLVE TONIGHT. MESO MODELS DO SHOW SOME SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT THAT TO BE LARGELY PREDICATED
ON ANY UPSTREAM CLEARING WHICH LOOKS QUESTIONABLE ATTM BASED ON
VSBL IMAGERY. SURFACE TROUGH PROGGD TO SWING THROUGH ON FRIDAY
THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING UPSTAIRS SO PRECIP POTENTIAL
LOOKS PRETTY LOW WITH ANY LINGERING MORNING STRATUS/FOG GIVING WAY
TO VFR CONDITIONS.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015/ 

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

DRY AIR WILL HOLD SWAY OVER ERN CWA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
CLOUDS WL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS
DRIER AIR GETS REPLACED BY RAPID SURGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION. PWAT VALUES CURRENTLY AROUND 0.75 INCH WL RAPIDLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES THIS AFTN AND EVE. COMBINATION OF
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN IA AND PIVOTING LOW LEVEL JET
TOWARD WI ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER SPREADING INTO S CENTRAL WI THIS MRNG. 

MORE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFN AND EVE AS SHORT WAVE AND
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS CROSS SRN WI. HENCE CONTINUED LIKELY OR HIGHER
POPS INTO THE EVE USING OCNL PHRASING. SFC WMFNT DRAPED ACROSS
IA/MO/IL REGION WL MOVE NWD BUT MAY HAVE TOUGH TIME CROSSING INTO
WI DUE TO EXPECTED CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY.

HOWEVER CONSIDERING OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS...CAN NOT RULE OUT
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO HIGH PWAT VALUES AND DEPTH OF
WARM CLOUD LAYER...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
925-850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALIGNED WITH 850-300 MB FLOW NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS OVER 2 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS...SO HELD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES DUE TO LARGE
UNCERTAINTY.

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 5 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE LATER TODAY.
CAPE VALUES MAY INCREASE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG AS SHEAR PROFILE
QUITE FAVORABLE SO CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED ROTATING SUPERCELL
LATE AFTN/EVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS SYNOPTIC FORCING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. LIGHTER WINDS AND
POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
MORNING. NO REAL SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SPEAK OF IS SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY...NOR ANY REAL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ALOFT. SOME MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
DESPITE THIS.

GIVEN LACK OF FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...REMOVED POPS
FOR FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LEFT IN LOW POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS MAY END UP DRY AS
WELL...AS ADJUSTED AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS SHOWING SOME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH HIGH LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION.

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH STEADY
WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LEFT IN LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN MAY END UP DRY WITH
LACK OF DECENT SURFACE BOUNDARY OR FEATURE ALOFT TO BRING UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS ALSO FAIRLY
CAPPED. HIGHER DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
LAKE FOG DEVELOPMENT...LINGERING INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY.

SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN SPOTS. POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE MAY KEEP LAKESHORE
AREAS COOLER.

SPC HAS PUT MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
FOR DAY 3...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS TIED TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. ADJUSTED GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER CAPE WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT LIKELY WORDING FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BE THE BEST
TIME PERIOD FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS SHOWING BROAD 500 MB TROUGH SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...EXITING IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT POPS FOR
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. 

COULD THEN SEE A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS
BLENDED POPS FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER/REMOVE THEM IN LATER
FORECASTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE MODELS. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WOULD ALSO BE ON TAP DURING THIS TIME.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN SHOWN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO AND
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDED LOW POPS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MAY NEED HIGHER POPS IN LATER FORECASTS
IF THIS TREND HOLDS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

OCCASIONAL SHRA WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN WI THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THIS EVENING WITH A FEW TSTORMS. DEEPENING MOISTURE NORTH OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WL RESULT IN LOWER CIGS TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

MARINE...

MODIS IMAGERY FROM WEDNESDAY MEASURED LAKE MI SFC TEMP IN THE
LOWER 60S. HENCE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TODAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE AND NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WNDS
OFF COOLER LAKE WATERS WL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL INVERSION PREVENTING
GUSTIER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SFC. 

WMFNT WL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MI THRU THIS EVE DUE TO
CONVECTION BUT WINDS MAY TURN OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WIND GUSTS WL REMAIN LESS THAN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD DUE TO WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT BUT MAY BE A WINDOW OF SEVERAL HOURS OF GUSTIER SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS EVE.

OTHERWISE...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT FOG/HAZE TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME
PREVALENT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY UNTIL
COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

BEACHES...

SOUTHEAST WINDS WL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY CAUSING WAVE
HEIGHTS TO INCREASE TO MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FEET. HENCE A MODERATE SWIM
RISK CAN BE ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING RESULTING IN
BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS. LATE DAY SWIMMERS SHOULD EXPECT TO
STAY AWAY FROM PIERS AND BREAKWALLS. THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT EASING THE SWIM RISK.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK 
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 161434 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
934 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.UPDATE...

OTHER THAN PASSING CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER. FORECAST HIGHS SEEM TO BE ON
TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TOMORROW AS THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY FROM LATE EVENING THURSDAY CONTINUED TO SHOW
LAKE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS.  LATEST ATWATER BUOY TEMP MEASURED 57 DEGREES CONFIRMING
MODIS INSTRUMENT MEASUREMENT.  COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.  THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CREATED BY THE MILDER LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS
WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TO REACH THE LAKE SURFACE TODAY.
DESPITE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THE REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...SOME MESOMODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS TO REACH 22-25 KNOTS LASTING INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING.
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LASTS THROUGH 6 PM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING...WITH NEW AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015/ 

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER WAVE WITH THE
FRONT AND IT MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FROM SOME OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT ARE OCCURRING. COLD ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEING DEPICTED ON FCST SOUNDINGS. THE
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER ERN
WI FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. 925 MB TEMPS AROUND
-2C YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

FOR TNT...THE POLAR HIGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL REACH THE MS RIVER
BY 12Z SAT. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TNT BUT BECOME WEAKER
WITH A WEAKENING WIND FIELD. THUS RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE A
FACTOR IN AN ALREADY COOL AIRMASS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
FREEZING AT THE LAKE TO MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WI. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH FROST ALREADY
FORMING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THEY SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. COOL
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED.

LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S OVER THE AREA...LOWER 30S
NEAR THE LAKE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES TIGHTER. QUIET WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. PER 925 MB
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S SUNDAY...WITH LOWER
TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LOWS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THEY SHOW THE 500 MB FLOW BECOMING ZONAL DURING THIS
TIME...WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. 

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH SHOULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
GFS ALSO SHOWS WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH GUSTS REACHING
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE
WINDS...SO LEANED TOWARD CONSENSUS BLENDED MODEL VALUES OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW THOSE FOR NOW.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN STALLS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS THEN BRINGS LOW
PRESSURE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS TIMING WITH THE
LOW...AND BRINGS IT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

KEPT CONSENSUS BLENDED MODEL POPS FOR MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...GIVEN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. 

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

SCT-BKN CLOUDS FROM 5-8 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH
SUNRISE. AFTERWARD DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN AT LEAST SCT035-050 BUT WITH PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER
ERN WI FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES
FOR TNT.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM DUE TO BRISK AND
GUSTY NWLY WINDS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE TODAY AND TNT AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR 
     WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 160933
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF UPSTREAM AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROF
WILL PULL INCREASING DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  COLUMN PWAT NEARLY DOUBLES
IN NEXT 24 HOURS TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTHWARD INTO IA/MN AHEAD OF STRONGER DAKOTAS WAVE. SEVERAL WEAKER
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF -SHRA TODAY.
THE FIRST HAS BEEN PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED -SHRA IN
THE SOUTHEAST CWA OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOULD END EARLY BUT EXPECT
UPSTREAM STRONGER WAVE OVER NRN MO/WRN IA AREA TO TRIGGER MORE -SHRA
OVER SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. SOUTH CENTRAL WI WILL BE
CLOSER TO DEEP MOISTURE FEED AND HAS BETTER CHANCE FOR -SHRA LATER
TODAY. LIKELY TO BE A BREAK IN THE -SHRA THREAT FROM LATE AFTN THRU
THE EVE BUT WITH PERSISTENT WEAK ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCE FOR -SHRA
IN THRU THE LATE NGT. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS INTO SRN WI LATE
TONIGHT RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD T.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES TUESDAY MORNING WILL
SWING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A SURGE OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE
OF A STRONG 50+ KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK... BUT THE STRONG LLJ FORCING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD AID
IN PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDER. THE INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BLUSTERY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH.
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. 

DRIER AND COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
IN SOUTHERN WI WED MORNING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW.
LOOK FOR RAIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY. BY WED AFTERNOON...
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO HIGHER MIXING AND THUS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. 

.LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL
BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI ON THU. THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW WED NIGHT AND
THU... BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR SNOW. IF IT SNOWS... A HALF INCH OR LESS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ON
GRASSY AREAS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. 

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DROPS OUT OF
PHASE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE ECMWF... BUT STAYS IN PHASE
WITH THE GFS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI NIGHT. THE
CANADIAN MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE LATTER TWO MODELS PRODUCE
A SWATH OF SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WI FRI NIGHT WHILE THE ECWMF KEEPS US
DRY. THE MODELS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO FLIP FLOP WITH THIS FORECAST A
COUPLE MORE TIMES BEFORE COMING INTO AGREEMENT DUE TO THE NATURE OF
THE WEAK UPPER LOW BEHAVIOR... SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE VERY LOW. 

THE GFS AND ECWMF BECOME COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE IN THE LATTER
PERIODS AND THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST DO NOT HOLD
ANY WEIGHT. THE ECWMF FAVORS A WARM SOLUTION WITH RAIN SHOWERS
WITHIN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
STATES. THE GFS HOLDS ONTO COLD AND FAIRLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DUE TO
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN AND
MAY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR.  THIS LOWER CIGS MAY NOT RECUPERATE DURING
THE LATE AFTN AND EVE AS -SHRA WANE BUT PERSISTENT SLY WINDS
MAINTAIN DEEPER MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE REGION. CIGS MAY DROP TO
IFR LEVELS LATE TNGT AS MORE WIDESPREAD -RA SPREADS TOWARD/INTO SRN
WI. 

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN TAKE A NORTHEAST TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SSE WINDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AND BUILDING WAVES.
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING
POSSIBLE GALE FORCE GUSTS.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED
FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A GALE WATCH THAT
WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS TURN TO THE
WEST AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.  

LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND PORT WASHINGTON INFOS MEASURING LAKE SFC
TEMP IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FARTHER
SOUTH.  SOME FOG MAY HAVE TIME TO DEVELOP BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
WARMER...MOIST AIR SURGES ACROSS LAKE MI AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE.  

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR 
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY 
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 160841
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

DRY AIR WILL HOLD SWAY OVER ERN CWA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
CLOUDS WL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS
DRIER AIR GETS REPLACED BY RAPID SURGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION. PWAT VALUES CURRENTLY AROUND 0.75 INCH WL RAPIDLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES THIS AFTN AND EVE. COMBINATION OF
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN IA AND PIVOTING LOW LEVEL JET
TOWARD WI ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER SPREADING INTO S CENTRAL WI THIS MRNG. 

MORE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFN AND EVE AS SHORT WAVE AND
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS CROSS SRN WI. HENCE CONTINUED LIKELY OR HIGHER
POPS INTO THE EVE USING OCNL PHRASING. SFC WMFNT DRAPED ACROSS
IA/MO/IL REGION WL MOVE NWD BUT MAY HAVE TOUGH TIME CROSSING INTO
WI DUE TO EXPECTED CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY.

HOWEVER CONSIDERING OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS...CAN NOT RULE OUT
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO HIGH PWAT VALUES AND DEPTH OF
WARM CLOUD LAYER...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
925-850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALIGNED WITH 850-300 MB FLOW NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS OVER 2 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS...SO HELD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES DUE TO LARGE
UNCERTAINTY.

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 5 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE LATER TODAY.
CAPE VALUES MAY INCREASE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG AS SHEAR PROFILE
QUITE FAVORABLE SO CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED ROTATING SUPERCELL
LATE AFTN/EVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS SYNOPTIC FORCING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. LIGHTER WINDS AND
POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
MORNING. NO REAL SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SPEAK OF IS SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY...NOR ANY REAL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ALOFT. SOME MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
DESPITE THIS.

GIVEN LACK OF FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...REMOVED POPS
FOR FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LEFT IN LOW POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS MAY END UP DRY AS
WELL...AS ADJUSTED AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS SHOWING SOME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH HIGH LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION.

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH STEADY
WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LEFT IN LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN MAY END UP DRY WITH
LACK OF DECENT SURFACE BOUNDARY OR FEATURE ALOFT TO BRING UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS ALSO FAIRLY
CAPPED. HIGHER DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
LAKE FOG DEVELOPMENT...LINGERING INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY.

SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN SPOTS. POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE MAY KEEP LAKESHORE
AREAS COOLER.

SPC HAS PUT MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
FOR DAY 3...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS TIED TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. ADJUSTED GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER CAPE WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT LIKELY WORDING FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BE THE BEST
TIME PERIOD FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS SHOWING BROAD 500 MB TROUGH SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...EXITING IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT POPS FOR
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. 

COULD THEN SEE A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS
BLENDED POPS FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER/REMOVE THEM IN LATER
FORECASTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE MODELS. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WOULD ALSO BE ON TAP DURING THIS TIME.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN SHOWN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO AND
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDED LOW POPS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MAY NEED HIGHER POPS IN LATER FORECASTS
IF THIS TREND HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

OCCASIONAL SHRA WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN WI THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THIS EVENING WITH A FEW TSTORMS. DEEPENING MOISTURE NORTH OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WL RESULT IN LOWER CIGS TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

MODIS IMAGERY FROM WEDNESDAY MEASURED LAKE MI SFC TEMP IN THE
LOWER 60S. HENCE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TODAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE AND NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WNDS
OFF COOLER LAKE WATERS WL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL INVERSION PREVENTING
GUSTIER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SFC. 

WMFNT WL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MI THRU THIS EVE DUE TO
CONVECTION BUT WINDS MAY TURN OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WIND GUSTS WL REMAIN LESS THAN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD DUE TO WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT BUT MAY BE A WINDOW OF SEVERAL HOURS OF GUSTIER SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS EVE.

OTHERWISE...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT FOG/HAZE TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME
PREVALENT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY UNTIL
COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...

SOUTHEAST WINDS WL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY CAUSING WAVE
HEIGHTS TO INCREASE TO MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FEET. HENCE A MODERATE SWIM
RISK CAN BE ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING RESULTING IN
BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS. LATE DAY SWIMMERS SHOULD EXPECT TO
STAY AWAY FROM PIERS AND BREAKWALLS. THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT EASING THE SWIM RISK.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 151946
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 
245 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKED SOUTHEAST THROUGH WI TODAY ALONG A
POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WIND GUSTS ARE PEAKING RIGHT NOW UP TO
35 MPH. DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH WE MIX... CANNOT RULE OUT EVEN HIGHER
WIND GUSTS AT TIMES. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY DARK... BUT EXPECT
OVERALL WINDS TO BE IN THE 7 TO 15 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THERE HAS EVEN BEEN SOME LIGHTNING/THUNDER IN THESE DUE TO
THE STEEP LAPSE RATES. THEY COULD CLIP THE NORTHERN MKX AREA
COUNTIES FROM GREEN LAKE TO SHEBOYGAN THROUGH SUNSET. A FEW LOW
CLOUDS COULD SPREAD INTO EAST CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT. THE STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION/CAA/ WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH 925MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 0C TO 2C. THIS YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT... COLDEST INLAND. KEPT FROST OUT OF
THE FORECAST BECAUSE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS DRY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS WILL BE
STEADY IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHEST
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FRI AM. PLAN ON PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S.

.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD ON TEMPERATURES...AS BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.  COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER WRN CONUS WILL HAVE USHERED COLD 925H TEMPS AROUND 0C
ACROSS SRN WI BY 00Z/SUN.  THE THERMAL TROF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO SUN MRNG WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATION DUE TO AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER SRN WI.  JET AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EWD LATER
SUNDAY ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. 

DESPITE THERMAL TROF LINGERING OVER EASTERN CWA FRI NIGHT...LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS SPARSE.  EXPECT A MODERATE INVERSION TO
SET UP...SO LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS OF 6 KTS OR LESS AND CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO
30 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA.  ONLY AREAS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN AROUND FREEZING.  HENCE WILL POST FREEZE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...LIKELY TO BE UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING
IN LATER FORECASTS.  

THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY END THE GROWING SEASON OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  

UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY.  EXPECT SCT-BKN CIRRUS TO SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DUE TO UPSTREAM STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. 

.EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST 
CONFIDECE...MEDIUM.

PROTECTIVE RIDGE AXIS WILL GET NUDGED EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL HAVE COMMENCED
ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ABATE ON MONDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE 850H TEMPS
WILL HAVE WARMED 12-14C.  APPEARS AIRMASS OVER SRN WI TO REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE TO REMAIN PINCHED OFF
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CONUS.  

SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WL
EVENTUALLY PULL DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUE.  GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LONG TERM GUIDANCE BRINGING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ACROSS WESTERN GTLAKES IN THE WED TIME
PERIOD.  HENCE WILL HAVE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS IN THE TUE NGT THRU WED
NGT TIME PERIODS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO FOR NOW WL NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER.  

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST AROUND THIS TIME
WL KEEP UPPER MIDWEST WAVE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA
BY THURSDAY.  

925H TEMPS WARM INTO THE 12 TO 17C RANGE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN MILD
THRU WED BEFORE COOLING.  EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER BUT
DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD MANAGE TO RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EVEN BY THE LAKESHORE. 

GFS 5 DAY 500MB MEANS SHOWING LARGE NEGATIVE ANOMOLY FORMING OVER
WRN CONUS BY 00Z/26TH WITH POSITIVE ANOMOLY OVER GREAT LAKES
DIMINISHING TO TENDING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.  NCEP CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM PLUME SHOWS TEMPS TEMPORARILY COOLING OFF FOR THE
LAST DAYS OF OCT BUT RECOVERING A BIT IN EARLY NOV. 
 
&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND 6-7 KFT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE UNTIL SUNSET. COLD ADVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. VFR STRATOCUMULUS WITH CIGS AROUND 5 KFT ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST OF MADISON AND KENOSHA. 

BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS... BUT NW WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AROUND 1500
FEET AGL. THIS IS MARGINAL LLWS SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

VERY GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE
SURFACE TEMP IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...CONFIRMED BY ATWATER BUOY
THIS MORNING. HENCE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER NEAR SHORE
WATERS WILL ALLOW HIGHER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS WELL...EVEN WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION...AS COLDER AIR
POURS ACROSS THE LAKE. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...FREEZE WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT FRIDAY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646. 
 

$$ 
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MBK


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 151555 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1055 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015

.UPDATE...

LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND FRONTOGENESIS IS SLIDING SOUTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR
THE BROKEN/OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN JUST SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL
BE AROUND.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ORIENTED SW TO NE
ACROSS CENTRAL WI LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY WNW WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL PEAK DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI
AND USHERS COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON... BUT DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH WE MIX... WIND
GUSTS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

BKN/OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE WI BORDER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. FEW-
SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5-6 KFT SHOULD THEN FORM FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG
AND BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS POSSIBLE LATE. 

BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z/1 PM AND VEER
NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KTS ARE EXPECTED. THE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS... BUT NW WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
ALOFT AROUND 1500 FEET AGL.

&&

.MARINE...

EXPECT SPRINKLES TO FURTHER DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA.  RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WEST WINDS MIXING DOWN TO LAND SURFACE.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY
MEASURED LAKE SURFACE TEMP IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...CONFIRMED BY
ATWATER BUOY THIS MORNING.  HENCE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL ALSO ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO
LAKE SURFACE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...EVEN WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION...AS
COLDER AIR POURS ACROSS THE LAKE. 

WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTING AT 16Z...BUT GUSTIER WINDS
MAY BE DELAYED AN HOUR OR TWO DUE TO SPRINKLES AND LINGERING MID-
CLOUDS ACROSS SRN MARINE ZONES.  

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/ 

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES CURRENTLY OVER SW WI AND ADJACENT
STATES WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS IS THE CATALYST FOR THE CLOUDS AND LGT PCPN. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT ONLY
FEW-SCT CUMULUS DUE TO DRY AIR ADVECTION. NWLY WINDS AND COLD
ADVECTION TO THEN PREVAIL THROUGH TNT. DID NOT MENTION FROST FOR TNT
AS WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY AND LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. 

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR IS EXPECTED
THOUGH...WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED MOST PLACES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP
AS THE HIGH HEADS EASTWARD. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THOUGH.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND THE
DEPARTING HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND...AS THE BLEND WAS SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. IF CURRENT MODEL TIMING
AND TEMPS ALOFT HOLD...COULD SEE TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S BY
TUESDAY. PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE THOUGH...SO DID NOT
GO QUITE THAT WARM.

HAVE KEPT SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...AS A WAVE OR TWO AHEAD
OF THE LOW AND THEN THE EVENTUAL LOW AND FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
PROBABLY BRING A COUPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A PERIOD OF BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS. SOME
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL OCCUR. FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND
5-6 KFT WILL THEN FORM FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TNT WITH FEW-
SCT STRATOCUMULUS POSSIBLE LATE. FOR WINDS...BREEZY AND GUSTY WLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND VEER NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE
TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED. 

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 16Z TODAY UNTIL
23Z ON FRI. BREEZY AND GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
AND VEER NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25
TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED. BRISK AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THU NT AND FRI. HIGH WAVES WILL OCCUR OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 150928
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A BEAUTIFUL DAY LIES AHEAD WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZES. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVENT LAKE
BREEZE FROM MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT PENETRATION INLAND. 925H TEMPS
IN THE 11-13C RANGE LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD MOST LOCATION...IN THE
40S TO LOW 50S. HENCE WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO CLIMB INTO THE
60S. MILDER START AND WARMER LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PROPEL TEMPS
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY 21Z SO BUMPED UP THE HIGH TEMP MOST
LOCATIONS. REMAINED MORE CONSERVATIVE RIGHT AT THE LAKESHORE
HOWEVER. SHOULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY.

AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM LONG WAVE TROF WILL NUDGE PROTECTIVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL
CARRY INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WEAK...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION ABV 4K FEET TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER CWA...WITH
BEST CHANCE IN THE WEST. COLUMN PWAT OVER WEST INCREASES AROUND
0.25 INCH BY 12Z.

.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES AND TIMING
DURING THIS PERIOD. A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...AS THE MAIN CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPS
IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850 MB REMAINS OVER
THE REGION...HELPING GRADUALLY TRANSPORT MORE COLUMN MOISTURE.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS GRADUAL SATURATION.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL APPEAR HIGHEST IN THE WEST MONDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS MORE MOISTURE
MOVES IN. THUS...KEPT TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THIS TIME. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY...WITH MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT...NEAR CONSENSUS BLEND OF
MODELS.

BEST SHOT FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB FLOW WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT/LOW LEVEL JET POINTS INTO THE AREA AND GETS ROBUST DURING
THIS TIME. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI/SOUTHWEST IOWA AREA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE MODEL VARIATION HERE WITH THE
EXACT TRACK. STILL...SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. 

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS WELL AND BEGIN TO
OCCLUDE...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS WITH SURFACE AND
500 MB LOW TRACKS...WHICH WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT VERSUS THE
SLOWER NAM.

ROBUST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS SEEN WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITHIN A DEEPLY SATURATED AIR COLUMN.
THUS...CONTINUED HIGH POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL...WITH SEVERAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. SOME LIGHT QPF SHOWS UP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE DRY SLOT ALSO PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. 

COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH BRISK WESTERLY WINDS.
THERE SHOULD BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AIR
OVER THE REGION.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MORE DIFFERENCES SHOW UP DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A 500 MB TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE REGION...AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THIS WOULD GIVE THE AREA A SHOT AT ACCUMULATING SNOW. 

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A
SIMILAR SYSTEM TO THE GFS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA. 

WILL USE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY FOR NOW...GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS THIS FAR
OUT. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND ITS TRACK COULD EASILY SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH. STAY
TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

RECENT TAMDAR DESCENT SOUNDING INTO KMKE VERIFYING STRONGER LOW
LEVEL WINDS SO BUMPED UP LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR VALUES IN TAFS FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE SURGE
OF MOISTURE...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KMSN OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR TNGT. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW LLWS THRESHOLD TNGT.

&&

.MARINE...

RECENT MODIS SATELLITE IMAGING EQUIPMENT MEASURED COOL LAKE
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 40-45 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. ALTHOUGH ATWATER BUOY HAS BEEN PULLED FOR THE
WINTER...INFOS EQUIPMENT AT PORT WASHINGTON MEASURED A LAKE SFC
TEMP OF 45F AT THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT EARLY THIS MRNG. SUNSHINE
AND LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THIS MRNG...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY LAKE BREEZE FROM
MAKING INROADS INLAND. 

HOWEVER TIGHT GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURE THIS AFTN APPROACHING 20F
AND WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP
RIGHT AT THE SHORE. HENCE WINDS MAY BE VARYING BETWEEN SW AND SSE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT SHORE LOCATIONS. WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY. 

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLE GALE WARNINGS LOOK LIKELY
FROM AROUND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 060840
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
340 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

EXPECT INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG 
EARLY THIS MORNING.  HENCE WILL CONFINE PATCHY LIGHT FOG MENTION TO 
EARLY MRNG AS PATCHY...THIN FOG WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z. 
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL 
RESULT IN WARM...SOUTH BREEZES TODAY.  LOW LEVEL MIXING AND 925H 
TEMPS AROUND 23-24C AND MORE UNIFORM SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN MORE 
WIDESPREAD WARM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 THIS AFTN.  THE 
WARM DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK IN THE MIDDLE 
TO UPPER 90S MOST AREAS.  BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD 
PREVENT LAKE BREEZE FROM PENETRATING VERY FAR INLAND THIS AFTN SO 
LAKESHORE AREAS WILL WARM AS WELL.  PLANNING ON KEEPING ANY POPS 
TODAY CONFINED TO FAR WEST AS CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE 
DAY.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON WEAKENING LOW 
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES 
PULLING COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE TONIGHT.  ALREADY DEEP 
COLUMN MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY PWAT VALUES 
FLIRTING WITH 2 INCHES LATER TONIGHT IN WRN CWA WHICH IS CLIMBING TO 
AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. PWAT VALUES AT THIS LEVEL MEASURING 2 
TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ACROSS SRN WI BY 12Z/7.  
FORTUNATELY...SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS 
IT COMES ACROSS SRN WI LATER TONIGHT INTO MON MRNG.  LOW LEVEL JET 
WEAKENING AND PIVOTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH MAIN MID-
LEVEL WAVE.  SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF WAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX 
CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP TO CARRY WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO 
SOUTH CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT SO WL CONTINUE HIGH POPS IN THIS AREA. 
BETTER CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST WI MAINLY AFT 12Z/7.  MARGINAL RISK 
FOR SEVERE WX AT BEST IN WEST.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 
5.5 TO 6 RANGE WITH WEAK BULK SHEAR AND DECREASING ELEVATED CAPE. 
FAR WESTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO SWING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING. THIS IN
COMBO WITH LINGERING INFLUENCE OF 850 SW JET WILL LIKELY KEEP BEST
RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING WITH THE HELP OF LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE 850 JET IS
EXITING AND THE SHORTWAVE IS OFF TO THE EAST. SO LESS FORCING IN
PLAY THOUGH SURFACE/850 BOUNDARIES STILL IN THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
POPS GOING ALL DAY IN CASE ANYTHING CAN GET GOING. HOWEVER
CONCERNED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP AIRMASS FROM DESTABILIZING TOO
MUCH. SO AFTERNOON COVERAGE DOESN/T LOOK GREAT AT THIS
POINT...HOWEVER 00Z ECMWF SHOWS MIDDAY LULL WITH BULLSEYE ACROSS
SE WI DURG THE AFTN. MEANWHILE THE NAM SHOWS BULK OF AFTN DVLPMT
ACRS NRN IL WITH THE GFS MORE OF A COMPROMISE SOLUTION.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND IS PROGGD TO MOVE NE ALONG
SURFACE/850 BOUNDARY. 850 WIND MAX COMES INTO PLAY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED RIGHT REAR QUAD DIVERGENCE
SIGNATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOUTHWEST 250 MILLIBAR JET MAX ON
EASTERN SIDE OF ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS. POTENTIAL
THERE FOR SOME HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE...DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING A QUICKER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
LOW WITH SYSTEM EXITING TO THE EAST FOR TUESDAY EVENING WHILE THE
GFS IS SLOWER AND KEEPS PRECIP LONGER THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
WITH THE FRONT AND LOW PUSHING OFF INTO THE EASTERN LAKES THE
PROGS SHOW A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD THIS PERIOD WITH
WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY NOTED. SO PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE
ELECTED TO GO DRY THIS PERIOD.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER FROM THE 12Z RUN AND IS NOW IN MORE
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ACTIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE GEM NOW THE ONLY MODEL TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS WI/IA FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS THERE IS STILL CONSENSUS FROM
THE GFS/ECMWF OF A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT WAVES RIDING THROUGH. THE
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THESE WAVES ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IN
PRIOR RUNS AS THEY ARE NOW SHOWING MORE OF A NORTHERN LOW POSITION
WITH LESS OVERALL QPF. MAIN STORY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING THE
COLD ADVECTION REGIME WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS CELSIUS WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME WEAK WAA IS THEN NOTED FOR SATURDAY
AS 850 WINDS START TO TURN A BIT MORE WESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...NOT EXPECTING CONVECTION TO AFFECT KMSN UNTIL 
THIS EVENING AT THE EARLIEST...AND LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MRNG ACROSS
THE EAST. MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS INTO KMSN WITH T THREAT TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...SHORELINE WEBCAMS REMAIN CLEAR OF DENSE FOG.  SOME LIGHT 
FOG SHOWING UP AT KENOSHA HARBOR. RECENT NEARSHORE LAKE SURFACE 
WATER TEMP AS MEASURED BY RECENT MODIS IMAGES AND ATWATER BEACH
BUOY SHOWS TEMP HAS WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...
MORE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THIS IS STILL RELATIVELY COOL 
COMPARED TO CURRENT SURFACE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA SO AREAS OF
FOG STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LOWER POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL 
RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY.  LOW LEVEL THERMAL 
INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGEST GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE 
SURFACE.  HOWEVER STRONGER WINDS MAY AFFECT SGNW3 THIS AFTN AND EVE 
WHERE ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IS ABOUT 60FT ABOVE SITE ELEVATION.  WILL 
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 22KTS IN THIS MARINE ZONE. 

&&

.BEACHES...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD 
FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
AFFECTING LAKE MI BEACHES. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE WAVE
HEIGHTS TO INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET FROM PORT WASHINGTON NORTH TO
SHEBOYGAN RESULTING IN A MODERATE SWIM RISK AT BEACHES IN THESE
AREAS. BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED SO STAY AWAY FROM
DANGEROUS AREAS LIKE PIERS AND BREAKWALLS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MBK 
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 052134
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
334 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING THAT FAR TONIGHT... WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 32 TO 35 IN MOST AREAS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL REACH IOWA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR
OVER SOUTHERN WI FOR THE VORTICITY ADVECTION TO OVERCOME ON
WEDNESDAY... SO KEPT A DRY FORECAST WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. 

.LONG TERM...

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE WEAKER OF
THE TWO PUSHING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE SECOND MORE
POTENT WAVE WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SURFACE
LOW. AS STRONG 850 FLOW PUMPS MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE SATURATED BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN SATURATED WELL INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC LIFT...EXPECT THE SEE PRECIP FROM EARLY
THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY.

AT THIS POINT THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS PRECIPITATION TYPE. WHEN THE
PRECIP MOVES IN THE PROFILE IN THE NORTH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW WHILE SLEET AND SNOW IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
BY MID DAY THURSDAY...ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA TO
SWITCH MOST OF THE CWA RAIN IN THE SOUTH. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC TEMPS WILL FLOAT VERY NEAR
FREEZING. HOWEVER...SUPERBLEND IS SHOWING TEMPS ELEVATING ABOVE
FREEZING BY 18Z...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO
WILL LEAVE THAT OUT. TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST...WHERE A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW IS MORE LIKELY. BY FRIDAY MORNING AFTERNOON...THE
LOW WILL BE ON TOP OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND COLD AIR WILL BEGIN
TO WRAP IN BEHIND THE LOW. THIS SLUG OF COLD AIR SHOULD SWITCH
MOST OF THE PRECIP TO SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
 

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

AS THE LOW MOVES OUT...A ROBUST COLD CORE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. SUPERBLEND BRINGS IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS...AND SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING
EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS. ANOTHER CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE WIND
CHILLS...WHICH MAY DROP AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TONIGHT SO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

RECENT MODIS IMAGERY FROM MONDAY MEASURED LAKE SURFACE TEMP IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. HENCE THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT.  GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE OPEN WATER.  HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 15Z WED. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BSH


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 051628 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1028 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SHOULD PREVENT FOG TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD TO INCLUDE IN TAF
ISSUANCE. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2016/ 

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

LOW CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT LAKESHORE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT EXPECT INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS TO CARRY
LAKE STRATUS AWAY FROM WESTERN LAKE MI SHORE THIS MRNG.  ALSO NEED
TO KEEP EYE ON LARGE STRATUS FIELD OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO
WEST CENTRAL WI.  THESE INCREASING WINDS MAY CARRY STRATUS TOWARD
NORTHWEST CWA THRU THE EARLY MRNG.  OTRW NOT SEEING MUCH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT TODAY.  EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.  925H TEMPS WARM TO
AROUND -5C.  WITH HIGH ALBEDO...THINKING DAYTIME TEMPS WL WARM INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.  BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF PLAINS
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING THAT FAR
TONIGHT.  COLUMN MOISTURE ACROSS SRN WI WL REMAIN DRY AND FAR ENOUGH
AWAY FROM UPSTREAM WEAK LIFT TO CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR TNGT. 

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. 

INCREASING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TO KICK OFF PRECIP CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD
IS WHAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. CONSENSUS OF MODELS WOULD SUGGEST
MAINLY SNOW NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM
LAYER DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARY DEEP AND IS MAXING OUT AT
1-2C...SO JUST WENT WITH MENTION OF SLEET ALONG WITH THE SNOW IN
THE SOUTH. MILDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
THURSDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW NORTH AND
ALL RAIN SOUTH BY AFTERNOON.

MILDER WEDGE OF AIR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAINLY
RAIN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHWEST.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA BY
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. A SLOW TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS
THUS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...SO GENERALLY LOW END
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. 

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL
ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES...BUT IT
MAINLY LOOKS DRY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 10 TO 15 RANGE ARE SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN SOME OF THE
COLDER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS STRUGGLING UP
TO AROUND 5 BY MONDAY. WIND CHILLS MIGHT BE A FACTOR TOO...WITH
CURRENT FORECAST VALUES OF 10 TO 20 BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT. 

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...KEEPING CLOSE EYE ON LAKE STRATUS THAT IS
TICKLING PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL LAKESHORE.  SO FAR IT HAS NOT MAKE
MUCH PROGRESS INLAND.  LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2.5-3K FT BUT WINDS AROUND
THIS LEVEL INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.  RECENT DESCENT
AMDAR SOUNDING INTO KMKE SHOWING S WINDS JUST ABV THE SURFACE
AROUND 10KTS.  HENCE THINKING THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BRING AN HOUR OR
TWO OF SCT-BKN CIGS AT KENW AND KMKE EARLY THIS MORNING...OTRW BULK
OF STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND START TO MOVE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. OTHER AREA OF STRATUS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO
NORTHWEST WI MOVING MOSTLY NWD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF
SITES. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG
TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLD TO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE. 

MARINE...RECENT MODIS IMAGERY FROM MONDAY MEASURED LAKE SURFACE TEMP
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HENCE EXPECT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.  GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS WL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE OPEN WATER.  HENCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 15Z WED.  MAY NEED TO EXTEND
SMALL CRAFT FURTHER INTO WED IN LATER SHIFTS DUE TO LINGERING HIGHER
WAVES TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 050946
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
346 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

LOW CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT LAKESHORE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT EXPECT INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS TO CARRY
LAKE STRATUS AWAY FROM WESTERN LAKE MI SHORE THIS MRNG.  ALSO NEED
TO KEEP EYE ON LARGE STRATUS FIELD OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO
WEST CENTRAL WI.  THESE INCREASING WINDS MAY CARRY STRATUS TOWARD
NORTHWEST CWA THRU THE EARLY MRNG.  OTRW NOT SEEING MUCH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT TODAY.  EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.  925H TEMPS WARM TO
AROUND -5C.  WITH HIGH ALBEDO...THINKING DAYTIME TEMPS WL WARM INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.  BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF PLAINS
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING THAT FAR
TONIGHT.  COLUMN MOISTURE ACROSS SRN WI WL REMAIN DRY AND FAR ENOUGH
AWAY FROM UPSTREAM WEAK LIFT TO CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR TNGT. 

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. 

INCREASING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TO KICK OFF PRECIP CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD
IS WHAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. CONSENSUS OF MODELS WOULD SUGGEST
MAINLY SNOW NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM
LAYER DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARY DEEP AND IS MAXING OUT AT
1-2C...SO JUST WENT WITH MENTION OF SLEET ALONG WITH THE SNOW IN
THE SOUTH. MILDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
THURSDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW NORTH AND
ALL RAIN SOUTH BY AFTERNOON.

MILDER WEDGE OF AIR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAINLY
RAIN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHWEST.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA BY
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. A SLOW TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS
THUS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...SO GENERALLY LOW END
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. 

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL
ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES...BUT IT
MAINLY LOOKS DRY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 10 TO 15 RANGE ARE SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN SOME OF THE
COLDER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS STRUGGLING UP
TO AROUND 5 BY MONDAY. WIND CHILLS MIGHT BE A FACTOR TOO...WITH
CURRENT FORECAST VALUES OF 10 TO 20 BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT. 

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...KEEPING CLOSE EYE ON LAKE STRATUS THAT IS
TICKLING PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL LAKESHORE.  SO FAR IT HAS NOT MAKE
MUCH PROGRESS INLAND.  LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2.5-3K FT BUT WINDS AROUND
THIS LEVEL INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.  RECENT DESCENT
AMDAR SOUNDING INTO KMKE SHOWING S WINDS JUST ABV THE SURFACE
AROUND 10KTS.  HENCE THINKING THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BRING AN HOUR OR
TWO OF SCT-BKN CIGS AT KENW AND KMKE EARLY THIS MORNING...OTRW BULK
OF STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND START TO MOVE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. OTHER AREA OF STRATUS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO
NORTHWEST WI MOVING MOSTLY NWD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF
SITES. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG
TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLD TO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE. 

&&

.MARINE...RECENT MODIS IMAGERY FROM MONDAY MEASURED LAKE SURFACE TEMP
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HENCE EXPECT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.  GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS WL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE OPEN WATER.  HENCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 15Z WED.  MAY NEED TO EXTEND
SMALL CRAFT FURTHER INTO WED IN LATER SHIFTS DUE TO LINGERING HIGHER
WAVES TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 030312
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
912 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016

.UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MARCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH. FEW FLURRIES NOTED ON KDLH RADAR MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WI
BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF CWA THRU THE NIGHT. SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS
MAY SLOW DOWN A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO
OVERSPREAD SRN WI THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES MAY GET
SHAKEN OUT OF THE CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AS WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS SRN WI. SFC WINDS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BELOW STEEP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...MAY BE ABLE TO
BUMP UP MIN TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK...CURRENTLY LOCATED 
OVER N WI...IS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS S WI ALONG AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. OVC MVFR AND IFR CIGS BEING REPORTED VIA ASOS METAR SITES
IN N WI. CIGS BETWEEN 2.0 TO 2.5KFT WERE REPORTED ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE...WITH LOWER CIGS FARTHER NORTH. EXPECTING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS STRATUS DECK TO ARRIVE AT ALL TAF SITES
BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER FROM THE WEST
TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH S
WI...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25KTS FOR THE MKE AND
ENW TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT THE WIND SPEEDS TO EVEN INCREASE A LITTLE
AS A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. TUG MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS EVENING HAS REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 22 KNOTS ON ITS JOURNEY. FOR NOW LEFT
ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUN THROUGH 15Z...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED A FEW HOURS FURTHER IN LATER SHIFTS DUE TO SLOWLY
DECREASING WINDS ON SUNDAY. RECENT MODIS IMAGE ESTIMATES THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SURFACE TEMP TO BE IN THE 35 TO 40 RANGE IN THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS

MAY NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS TROF
PASSAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016/ 

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS WERE
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MODELS HAVE THIS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT...REACHING THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. THEY
SHOULD THEN LINGER SUNDAY...BELOW THE STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION. 

THE CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE LOWS SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT. WENT WITH
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S TONIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND
THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ON
SUNDAY...NEAR BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES. 

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
LATER TONIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD THEN WEAKEN SUNDAY...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

THE GFS DIGS THE CANADIAN TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES RIDGE REACHING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BECOMING
DOWNWARD. 700 MB RH IS LOW. 850 MB RH IS HIGH INITIALLY...BUT
DRIES LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND BUILDS INTO WISCONSIN LATER
MONDAY. THIS CAUSES THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTH AND
BRINGS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CLOSE TO THE WESTERN SHORE ON THE 12Z
THEN WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS BRIEFLY BRINGS LOW CLOUDS AND WEAKENING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN MONDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT MILWAUKEE INDICATE AN
INVERSION AROUND 750 MB WITH MOISTURE INCREASING MONDAY MORNING AS
THE INVERSION LOWERS TO NEAR 850 MB. ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OR FLURRIES EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WEAKENS. THE 700 MB
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST LATER TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION BUT
THE MID LAYERS REMAIN DRY. 

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA LATER MONDAY BEGINNING A SOUTH LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THE GFS NAM AND ECMWF ARE DRY.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY.

A SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH JUST A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX ARE HAVE NO
PRECIPITATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM  

A WEAK MAINLY SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WEAKENING FURTHER OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A
SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW MOISTENS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SNOW TO
MIX TO RAIN SCENARIO. 

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA REGION FRIDAY AS IT TRACKS
TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING BY MONDAY. THE
PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE MORE MODERATE ON THE GFS. 

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AT MILWAUKEE AND
KENOSHA...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE GUSTS SHOULD
SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
WEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION.

EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TAF SITES UNTIL 03Z
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 45 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL DURING THIS TIME. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
TIMES.

AN AREA OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CATEGORY CEILINGS SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LOW THE CEILINGS WILL GO. FOR NOW...WILL
USE AROUND 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR LOWER
CEILINGS...SOME BELOW 1000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...TO OCCUR. 

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL 15Z SUNDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN
GUSTY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP BELOW 22 KNOTS AFTER 15Z SUNDAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW THIS THRESHOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR GUSTS NEAR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL THEN VEER
NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN. HIGH WAVES MAY OCCUR
MONDAY...AS THE WINDS TURN ONSHORE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE PUBLIC/MARINE...MBK
UPDATE AVIATION...JTS
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 010226
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
926 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...TEMPS DROPPED RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING SO LOWERED
MINIMUM SEVERAL DEGREES MOST AREAS. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY TO
DEVELOP...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG AT BAY. LIKELY TO BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST CLOSER TO RIDGELINE AND MOIST MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...FOG LIKELY TO AFFECT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
LAKESHORE FOR A TIME...HOWEVER LAKESHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...KEEPING MOST OF THE LAKE FOG AT/OFF
SHORE. DEWPTS ABOUT 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND HIGH
AFTERNOON CROSS OVER TEMPS AND CLEAR SKIES LIKELY TO ALLOW FOG TO
DROP VSBYS TO MVFR. WL CONTINUE IFR VSBYS AT KENW DUE TO HIGH
CROSS OVER TEMP AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO RIDGELINE. BETTER LOW
LEVEL MIXING LIKELY TO KEEP DENSE FOG AT BAY ELSEWHERE. RECENT
ASCENT KMKE TAMDAR SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG MIXING ABOUT 1K FEET OFF
SURFACE. 

&&

.MARINE...LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING DENSE FOG RAPIDLY
EXPANDED AND NOW COVERS MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...WHICH IS
CONFIRMED BY LAKESHORE WEBCAMS. MODIS IMAGERY ESTIMATED NEARSHORE
LAKE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S EARLY TODAY...BUT THEN WARMED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S DURING THE AFTN. RECENT UPWELLING
INCIDENT HAS CAUSED THE COOL WATER TO SURFACE AS OFF SHORE LAKE
SFC TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

WITH THE WARM...MOIST AIR STICKING AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK...BOUTS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE
WATER TEMP WARMS AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/ 

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
STRATUS DECK MORPHED INTO CU FIELD. EXPECT THIS TO DIURNALLY DISSIPATE. 
FOG POTENTIAL STILL THERE WITH OVERALL LIGHT WIND REGIME AND HIGH DEW 
POINTS. HOWEVER THERE IS A BIT MORE STIRRING OFF THE DECK SO NOT 
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO BE A CONCERN. MOS TEMPS APPEAR 
REASONABLE.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH 
AFTER ANY MORNING FOG ERODES 925/850 THERMAL RIDGE LEANS INTO THE CWA 
WITH 925 TEMPS REACHING THE MID 20S CELSIUS. SO EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH 
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING 90. EVOLVING ONSHORE 
COMPONENT WILL DROP TEMPS BACK A BIT LAKESIDE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. 

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU NT..

A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER WRN CANADA AND THE
PACIFIC NW WITH RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN USA
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EXIST
WITHIN THE RIDGING AREA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL OR SRN WI FOR LATE WED INTO THU. MLCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 1500-2000 J/KG FOR WED AFT WITH LITTLE
CAPPING...BUT ALSO LITTLE TO NO SFC CONVERGENCE. SOME MODELS DO
HAVE QPF AT TIMES ALTHOUGH MODEL AND MOS POP GUIDANCE IS VERY LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FOR WED NT
AND THU. 

HIGH TEMPS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN
FORECAST DUE TO STRATUS AND FOG AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THIS
OUT FOR THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL BELIEVE TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE
LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VERY WARM...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
WEEKEND. THUS SMALL CHANCES OF TSTORMS ARE FORECAST AT TIMES BUT
WILL INCREASE ON LABOR DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN AT
THIS TIME.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MVFR CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS 
OF DIURNAL HEATING. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND GUID STILL SUGGESTING 
FOG DEVELOPS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE 
METMOS ON VSBY TRENDS. 850/925 THERMAL RIDGE STARTS TO LEAN INTO THE 
AREA TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SW FLOW. NAM SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH 
CU POTENTIAL. 
  

MARINE...WEAK FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH DEW 
POINT AIRMASS OVER COOL WATERS OF THE LAKE. SOME UPTICK IN SOUTH 
THEN SOUTHEAST WINDS ON TUESDAY BUT TRAJ FAVORS KEEPING FOG...SOME 
DENSE...IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH POTENTIAL 
LINGERING LONGER IN NORTHERN ZONES INTO TUE NGT. WITH GRADIENT 
LOOKING OVERALL WEAK FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEAK MAY BE SEEING MORE 
OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HEADLINES AS THE WEEK MOVES ALONG.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KMFR 120934
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
234 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR 
40N 130W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BEFORE BEGINNING A JOG TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST.
DRY AIR EAST OF THE LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF ANY SMOKE...AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
THE LARGEST CURRENT IMPACT FROM THE SMOKE CENTERS NEAR THE
NATIONAL CREEK COMPLEX NEAR CRATER LAKE...WHERE HIGHWAY 230 IS
CLOSED NOW BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 12 AND 24...PER ODOT'S
TRIPCHECK.COM WEBSITE. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF RECENT
BURNING AT THAT FIRE...AND WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING EXPECT
SMOKE TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT HIGHWAY 230 THROUGH THE MORNING. BY
THIS AFTERNOON...WEST WINDS SHOULD PUSH SOME OF THE SMOKE AWAY
FROM THE HIGHWAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY PATCHY SMOKE
TODAY...MOSTLY ALOFT...IN SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND NORTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA.

TONIGHT...THE MARINE LAYER AT THE COAST WILL DEEPEN AND PATCHY 
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED MAINLY AT THE COAST AND JUST INLAND. ON THURSDAY 
THE UPPER LOW NUDGES CLOSER TO LAND AND USHERS IN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO 
BRING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS ALONG 
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. IT IS NOTABLE HOW DRY THE AIR MASS REMAINS 
ON THURSDAY IN THE UPPER LEVELS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES...AND EVEN DRIER EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS DRY AIR...AND
WEAK INSTABILITY...SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THIS VERY DRY
AIR WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT FALLS ANYWHERE...SO WE
ARE EXPECTING ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON THURSDAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. PLUS...STEERING FLOW IS FAST FROM THE SOUTH SO ANY SHOWERS
WON'T STAY IN ONE SPOT FOR VERY LONG. WE ARE TAKING A LITTLE
LIBERTY WITH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY DESPITE THE
WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW MIDLEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...GIVEN THE
STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THE ANOMALOUSLY
LOW 500MB TEMPERATURES.

ANOMALY TABLES SUGGEST THE SOUTH TO NORTH WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE 
LOW OVER THE EAST SIDE AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEY REPRESENT A TOP 5 TO 
10 PERCENT EVENT FOR MID AUGUST. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH THE 
DRY AIR MASS COULD CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND A 
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT RFWMFR HIGHLIGHTS THIS. ADDITIONALLY...WE 
EXPECT SOME BLOWING DUST IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM SOME OF THE DRIER 
AREAS OF NORTHEAST SISKIYOU...MODOC...AND LAKE COUNTIES.  

DRY AND STABLE AIR RUNS THE SHOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY THEN WARMING CONDITIONS SATURDAY 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/06Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG 
THE COAST WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN...PERHAPS AS FAR AS 
KRBG...BEFORE CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST BY 20Z. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS 
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME 
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS DURING THE EVENING. 
ELSEWHERE, INLAND AREAS WILL BE VFR THROUGH TODAY...EXCEPT THAT 
WILDFIRE SMOKE COULD CAUSE LIMITED VISIBILITY IN SOME AREAS. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 12 AUGUST 2015...A WEAK 
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS 
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT COULD BRING ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL 
DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING WITH 
IT STRONG NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER 
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. ALTHOUGH STILL TOO FAR OUT IN RANGE TO 
BE CERTAIN, GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO 
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     EVENING FOR ORZ624-625. 

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     EVENING FOR CAZ285. 
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR CAZ281. 
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     EVENING FOR CAZ281. 

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/NSK/CC


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KJAN 171948
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
248 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM
INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER AND TEMPS. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT
PLAYER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, WITH A COOL/DRY SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING IN ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS OFF THE COAST, BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY, BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP RATHER DRY CONDITIONS AROUND DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
RH'S DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
FORTUNATELY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS MEANING LESS GUSTY WIND. STILL, SUCH LOW HUMIDITY COUPLED WITH
ANY GUSTS DURING DAYTIME MIXING WILL STILL BE DANGEROUS GIVEN THE
VERY DRY VEGETATION ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AN
ELEVATED FIRE WX THREAT IN GRAPHICS/HWO THROUGH MONDAY.

WITH THE DRY AIRMASS WILL COME LARGER DIURNAL TEMP RANGES. WE SAW
THIS LAST NIGHT, WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE TONIGHT, WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA GETTING IN ON THE ACT AS WINDS
SHOULD BE A BIT LIGHTER. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND ON THE HIGHER END FOR HIGHS. /DL/

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK)...DEEP LAYER
RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE ARKLAMISS DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW ONE
INCH. BY TUESDAY A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY IS ANTICIPATED TO
INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ENOUGH TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM
FALLING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. 

DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER COULD
REDEVELOP AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK IF WINDS EMANATE FROM A MORE
INLAND TRAJECTORY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE DROUGHT TO ONLY WORSEN WITH
NO CHANCE FOR RAIN ANY TIME SOON. THE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDE DAILY TEMPERATURE RANGES
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS. 
/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS EVENING...BECOMING 
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DANGEROUS FIRE WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO EXIST TODAY
WITH RH'S RANGING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS GUSTY AS YESTERDAY,
THERE HAVE STILL BEEN GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. MODIS FIRE DETECTION WAS
ALREADY PINGING A FEW FIRES ACROSS THE AREA AND LATEST RADAR ALSO
APPEARED TO DETECT FIRES IN COVINGTON AND JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THOUGH WINDS SHOULD
SLACK OFF JUST A BIT MORE. BASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE AREA
FORESTRY AGENCIES, NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE EXISTING FIRE
WEATHER WATCH.

THANKS MEG/MOB/LIX FOR COORDINATION. /DL/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       42  73  41  76 /   0   0   0   0 
MERIDIAN      39  71  38  73 /   0   0   0   0 
VICKSBURG     41  75  40  77 /   0   0   0   0 
HATTIESBURG   43  74  42  76 /   0   0   0   0 
NATCHEZ       46  75  45  75 /   0   0   0   0 
GREENVILLE    41  73  42  75 /   0   0   0   0 
GREENWOOD     38  71  41  75 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/19/EC


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KHUN 240652
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
152 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 06Z, A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM JUST EAST OF LEXINGTON TO
JUST S OF NASHVILLE AND MEMPHIS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WAS FOUND FROM
SRN MIDDLE TN THRU NWRN AL INTO CENTRAL MS. DEW POINTS WERE QUITE
SOUPY THIS MORNING, SITTING IN THE L-M70S. AREAS OF CLOUDS WERE ON
THE INCREASE ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND THE COLD FRONT IN KY
AND TN. LOCAL RADARS INDICATE A SMALL TSTM HAS POPPED UP IN LAWRENCE
COUNTY DURING THE PAST HOUR AND WE COULD SEE MORE OF THESE THRU THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS LINES UP WITH NAM AND HRRR RUNS THAT SHOWS
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAT MAY PLAGUE A FEW AREAS THRU EARLY MONDAY
MORNING (~15Z) BEFORE THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION, PATCHY
THICK FOG HAS DEVELOPED, MAINLY IN SOME OF OUR RIVER VALLEYS IN SRN
TN AND NERN AL. THE 03Z MODIS IMAGE PICKED UP ON THIS WITHIN THE
PAINT ROCK VALLEY. FORT PAYNE (4A9) IS DOWN TO 1/2SM. WE HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FOG THRU 15Z TO GO ALONG WITH THE SCHC OF TSRA ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. FOR THE REST OF TODAY, WE WILL SEE DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE
U50S-L60S WITH A NWLY BREEZE DEVELOPING. LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD DROP INTO THE L-M50S IN SRN TN, AND U50S- L60S IN NRN AL.

FINE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THIS WEEK AS
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDS INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD ACTUALLY PENETRATE THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WEDNESDAY
MORNING COULD APPROACH 50 IN A FEW OF OUR SRN TN VALLEYS. AS THE SRN
EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROF BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE SERN U.S., A
SIMILAR PATTERN THAT OCCURRED A COUPLE WEEKS BACK, WE MAY SEE ANOTHER
INVERTED SFC TROF DEVELOP OVER GA/FL WHICH TRACKS WEST THRU AL AND TN
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW
TO RETURN WESTWARD, SO WE HAVE HELD OFF POPS ATTM. TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO SEASONAL OR JUST ABOVE BY THE WEEKEND IF NOT
SOONER.

AK


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1155 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CDFNT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS NW AL. LOCAL RADARS
SHOW THAT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA HAVE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER SCT/BKN CLOUDS
ARND 6000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR THE PATCHY
MVFR FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    87  59  83  58 /  10   0   0   0 
SHOALS        87  60  83  57 /  10   0   0   0 
VINEMONT      85  56  81  57 /  20   0   0   0 
FAYETTEVILLE  82  57  80  52 /  10   0   0   0 
ALBERTVILLE   84  59  81  55 /  20   0   0   0 
FORT PAYNE    85  56  81  53 /  20   0   0   0 

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$ 

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE 
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK67 PAJK 091354
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
554 AM AKDT SUN AUG 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AK GULF SHIFTS EASTWARD
AND FLATTENS AS TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE AK INTERIOR MOVES OVER.
SURFACE LOW UNDER THE TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR KODIAK THIS MORNING
THEN TRACKING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AK GULF. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY TRACKING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AK GULF. THIS WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON THEN EXTEND EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT
WITH SPREADING RAIN BANDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS.
6 HOUR QPF VALUES IN THE QUARTER INCH RANGE. UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW STILL ROTATING
CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THE CLEAR SKIES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY ARE NUMBERED WITH THE
ADVANCING FRONT. NIGHTTIME MODIS SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD/FOG BAND
OVER CROSS SOUND STILL IN PLACE. SO FAR THE OTHER TYPICAL FOG
LOCATIONS NOT SHOWING SAME FOG DEVELOPMENT AND VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AS SATURDAY. SOME PATCHY FOR NEAR PAYA AND PAKW BUT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WAS BIT MORE DRYING YESTERDAY SO EVEN WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT NOT AS MUCH RADIATIONAL FOG.

WINDS WERE PREVIOUS DRIVEN BY THERMAL GRADIENT AND THROUGH THE
DAY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MAIN DRIVER. BEFORE THE
DEVELOPING AND LOWERING CLOUD DECK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DAY TIME
HEADING, BRINGING TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO HAVE SOME WEAK SEA
BREEZE WINDS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE PANHANDLE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES WILL INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER N LYNN CANAL WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH OTHER INNER CHANNEL SOUTHERN WINDS PICKING UP TO
THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. COASTAL WATER WINDS WILL PICK UP TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WERE MINOR AND STILL IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST. LEANED MORE TOWARD ECMWF/NAM AS GFS WAS NOT HANDLING THE
PANHANDLE SURFACE RIDGE WELL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT. A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE N
GULF COAST MON AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER WRN INTERIOR AK. LIKELY
RAIN ACROSS THE N GULF COAST AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TUE AS THIS FIRST WAVE MOVES INLAND. THE BREAK
WILL BE BRIEF THOUGH...AS ANOTHER...STRONGER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
GULF WED. THE THREAT OF ISOLD TSTMS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY NEAR
THE LOW CENTER WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION
YET...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL. THIS STORM WILL
ALSO HAVE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PWATS 1-1.3" BEING PULLED
N. THIS STRENGTHENING LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SCA WINDS
OVER THE GULF WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF
CYCLOGENESIS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS STORM WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INLAND LEAVING A WEAKENING LOW DRIFTING TOWARDS THE COAST THU.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH THE EC TAKING
THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY THU...WHILE
GFS/GEM MOVE IT MORE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE LATER THU. WENT
WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...MOVING THE LOW INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MID THU. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THU INTO
FRI AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE INTO THE WEEKEND BUT IN GENERAL MAINTAIN ZONAL
FLOW TO BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF BEFORE ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
INHERITED FORECAST REPRESENTED THIS WELL AND MOST CHANGES WERE FOR
THE WEEKEND WHERE A GFS/EC BLEND WAS USED TO UPDATE. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
DROPPING TO AVERAGE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-042-043-051-052. 

&&

$$

PRB/BC

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 251153
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
253 AM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM SOLUTION
WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THEY CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MID RANGE AND BEYOND. MODEL
OUTPUT NUMBERS ARE MUCH MORE REASONABLE WITH THIS LATEST RUN SO IT
LOOKS LIKE THEY HAVE FINALLY CAUGHT UP. WILL USE A BLEND AGAIN
TODAY LEANING TOWARD CONTINUITY.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
TO SITKA TO TANANA TO KOTZEBUE AND OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIE FROM DEASE LAKE BC TO CHICKEN TO BETTLES TO
POINT HOPE LATE THIS EVENING...THEN FROM MAYO YT TO COLDFOOT TO
POINT LAY BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE BY LATE SATURDAY...AND OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. 500 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MERGE
WITH A LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC TO BE OVER COLD BAY
THIS MORNING AT 498 DAM...ROTATING TO NORTH OF UNIMAK ISLAND THIS
EVENING THEN BACK SOUTHEAST OVER PAVLOF BAY BY SATURDAY MORNING
AT 500 DAM...MOVING NORTHEAST OVER BRISTOL BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING
AS IT WEAKENS TO 510 DAM. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE NORTH AROUND THE
LOW AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY. AT 850
HPA...00Z UPPER AIR OUT OF FAIRBANKS HAD THE TEMPERATURE AT 17.2
CELSIUS BELOW SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARMING ALOFT HAS BEGUN. UPPER
AIR FROM MCGRATH SHOWED AN INCREASE OF AROUND 7 CELSIUS FROM 12Z
LAST NIGHT TO 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THE WARMING
SHOULD CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES OVER
FAIRBANKS NEAR 2 CELSIUS BELOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY
COOLING STARTS.

SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 951 MB LOW NEAR COLD BAY
THIS MORNING WITH RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR OLD CROW AND RIDGING EXTENDING TO
THE NORTHWEST TO A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR CAPE HALKETT AND RIDGING
EXTENDING TO WRANGEL ISLAND. THE RIDGING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW INFLUENCES THE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE. THE
LOW WILL MOVE TO 150 NM NORTH OF UNIMAK ISLAND AT 957 MB THIS
EVENING...THEN ROTATE SOUTH TO 100 NM NORTH OF COLD BAY BY
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EAST TO SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY BY SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO A LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING EAST
OVER THE ALEUTIANS. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER YUKON
FLATS AND THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE LATE SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY. LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE
AND BROOKS RANGE AS WELL AS OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN TODAY. TANANA
VALLEY JET KICKS IN TODAY ALONG WITH SOME GAP WINDS NEAR PASSES.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...PRETTY NICE FOR THE ARCTIC IN
DECEMBER. MOSTLY CLEAR FROM WHAT I CAN SEE FROM DEADHORSE WEST ON
THE GOES AT 25/1130Z AND THE SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT
25/0815Z. GOES MVFR DOES INDICATE SOME CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT
25/0815Z...BUT IT IS PRETTY NOISY SO NOT REAL RELIABLE. GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP A BIT OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST TONIGHT SO WILL ISSUE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR Z201. WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH AS THEY SWITCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. 

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MIX OF WEATHER CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. CONDITIONS HAVE
SETTLED A BIT OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND THE WORST CONDITIONS
HAVE PASSED SO WILL CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND ISSUE AN
ADVISORY FOR THE AREA THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GAMBELL
OBSERVATION STOPPED COMING IN YESTERDAY...BUT SAVOONGA
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUES TO INDICATE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SO
WILL KEEP THAT WARNING GOING. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE LOWER YUKON DELTA SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
30S TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COOLING A BIT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG NEAR THE COAST...AND SOME STRONGER
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER SUMMITS INLAND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING A BIT SATURDAY
NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE SOME
CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT
SOME GAP WINDS AND THE TANANA JET DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER SUMMITS THROUGH NOON SATURDAY.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ209.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ214.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

$$

SDB DEC 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 241148
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
248 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THE PAST FEW RUNS. THERE ARE SOME
ISSUES AS THEY MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN
SOLUTIONS. MODEL OUTPUT NUMBERS APPEAR TO HAVE CAUGHT UP WITH
REALITY SO THAT SHOULD MAKE THE FORECAST A BIT EASIER TODAY. WILL
LEAN ON CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
GFS RUN.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...499 DAM LOW OVER BARTER ISLAND THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LIES
FROM THE LOW TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO TANANA AND WILL MOVE EAST TO LIE
FROM OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY TO CHALKYITSIK TO HEALY LATE THIS
MORNING...AND MOVE OUT OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. RIDGING
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC TO KING SALMON TO EMMONAK AND
OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA THIS MORNING...MOVING EAST TO LIE
OVER WHITTIER TO ANVIK TO SHISHMAREF TO WRANGEL ISLAND THIS
EVENING...AND SITKA TO TANANA TO KOTZEBUE AND OVER THE CHUKCHI
SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND DEASE LAKE BC TO EAGLE TO CAPE
LISBURNE LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS IS AROUND 100 NM NORTH OF AMCHITKA THIS MORNING AT 500
DAM...MOVING TO 200 NM NORTH OF ADAK LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN
OVER UNIMAK ISLAND AT 494 DAM BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...00Z
UPPER AIR OUT OF FAIRBANKS HAD THE TEMPERATURE AT 16.7 CELSIUS
BELOW SO THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM IS TO THE NORTH BUT WILL MOVE
SOUTH AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH AND COLD AIR SINKS SOUTH. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 20 BELOW CELSIUS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER FAIRBANKS LATER THIS MORNING. THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM WILL
MOVE NORTH LATER TODAY TO LIE FROM DAWSON YT TO POINT HOPE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST EXITING THE STATE LATE
FRIDAY.

SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT THAT HAS BEEN
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. A 1027 MB HIGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS AND WILL MOVE EAST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF FAIRBANKS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
CANADA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR OLD CROW YT LATE
THIS EVENING WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST.
THE PATTERN WILL BE PRETTY DYNAMIC OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE
LOW IN THE BERING SEA MOVES EAST WITH AND OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING
NORTH TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATER
THIS MORNING. STRONG GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING WINDS TODAY AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...AS LOW OFFSHORE MOVES NORTH SOME
CLEARING IS ALREADY OCCURRING WEST OF NUIQSUT. THE 24/0718Z SPORT
MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB IS NOT SHOWING MUCH STRATUS AND
WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA...IT SHOULD STAY CLEARED OUT
FOR A WHILE...AND THE EASTERN AREAS WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW PATCHES OF ROUGE STRATUS THAT MOVE OVER
AREAS...BUT NOT SEEING IT RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE
TODAY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WARM NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE LOW IN
THE BERING SEA INFLUENCES THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE AND PUSHES
THE COLDEST AIR NORTHEAST. WINDS IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC DIMINISHING
LATER TODAY...BUT WINDS ON THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL PICK UP
FRIDAY AS THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...COLDER AIR TODAY WILL BE PUSHED
OUT LATER IN THE EVENING AND THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGER WINDS WORKING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
BY NOON TODAY. 

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLEARING WILL OCCUR PRETTY RAPIDLY
THIS MORNING IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA AS AREAS TO THE WEST ARE
ALREADY CLEAR OR CLEARING. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN ABOUT 15
DEGREES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE TODAY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WARMING OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WITH GAP WINDS AND TANANA JET
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AS THE WARM AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ214.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220.

&&

$$

SDB DEC 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 231317
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
417 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW MOVING TO THE
WEST COAST NEXT 24 HOURS...A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW
THAT WILL MOVE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK. COASTAL
SURGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. THERE IS
SOME CONFUSION IN THE MODELS AS TO WHAT EXACTLY WILL HAPPEN OVER
THE INTERIOR. WILL LEAN ON CONTINUITY AND ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES
TO THE EXISTING GRIDDED DATABASE FOR THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 499 DAM LOW 200 NM WEST OF ST MATTHEW
ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A RELATIVELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING...AND BY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA...THEN EAST ACROSS KOTZEBUE SOUND...THEN SOUTH
THROUGH THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AS IT PUSHES NORTHEAST OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ALCAN BORDER. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE COAST BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND LIE SOUTHEAST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...PUSHING OVER THE RIDGE AND THE ARCTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
WILL PUSH 530 DAM HEIGHTS AS FAR NORTH AS MACKENZIE BAY AND 540
HEIGHTS TO THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY.

SURFACE...BENIGN PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY WILL BE
PUSHED EAST AS 970 MB LOW IN THE BERING SEA MOVES TO ST MATTHEW
ISLAND BY LATE THIS EVENING. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE
LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN INTERIOR
THROUGH THE DAY. GAP FLOW/CHINOOK WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN
ALASKA RANGE THIS MORNING AND IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE...AND THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS LEE SIDE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS. LEESIDE
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT WITH GAP/CHINOOK
WINDS DEVELOPING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA AND
UPPER YUKON VALLEY DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL IS PUSHING SURGE VALUES UP A
BIT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE MAXING OUT AT AROUND 7 FEET IN
NORTON BAY AND 6 FEET IN NORTON SOUND SO WILL CANCEL THE COASTAL
FLOOD WATCHES AND ISSUE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS...AND
THE SCAMMON BAY AREA. THERE IS SOME SHOREFAST ICE IN THESE AREAS
AND THAT COULD LEAD TO PROBLEMS AS IT GETS SHOVED UP ON SHORE.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...GINA MODIS FOG PRODUCT...11-3.7UM
AT 23/0624Z NOT SHOWING A LOT ON THE ARCTIC COAST. THERE IS A
BAND OF STRATUS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ARCTIC OVER WAINWRIGHT AND
SOUTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE THAT IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST...AND SOME
STRATUS IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THAT IS JUST HANGING AROUND.
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH. IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
STRONG GAP FLOW WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT IN PASSES WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW MOVING INTO THE BROOKS RANGE
TONIGHT...BUT MINIMAL AMOUNTS FOR MOST AREAS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
TURN TO EASTERLY AS LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE COAST COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A LOT GOING ON HERE...WILL
CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE WILL BE CANCELING IN THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES AND ISSUING
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN THIS MORNING AND
TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NORTH. CAPE ROMANZOF
IS ALREADY GETTING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS AND THEY WILL
SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE CAPES
AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WHERE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL OCCUR.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR ZONES 209 AND 213 TODAY AND TONIGHT. HEAVY
SNOW FOR MOST OF THE OTHER ZONES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM
4 TO 18 INCHES. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE AS THE LOW BRING WARM AIR
NORTH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...JUST A GLANCING BLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR AS MOST OF THE SYSTEM IS PUSHED NORTHWEST OF THE
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY. PERIODS OF SNOW AND EVEN A PERIOD OF HEAVY
SNOW TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF FAIRBANKS AS THE SYSTEM RIDES UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS
FROM FAIRBANKS WEST AND NORTH FOR 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. STRONG
WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND AROUND DELTA JUNCTION AS
GAP/CHINOOK FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 70 MPH
NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH NEAR
DELTA JUNCTION. TEMPERATURES WARMER HERE ALSO AS THE CHINOOK WINDS
WARM THE AREA.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ209-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ227.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ222-
AKZ227.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB NOV 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 231108
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
308 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD AT 500 HPA. MODELS
ARE MAINTAINING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 84 HOURS BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES SHOW UP. AT THE SURFACE THEY HAVE COME
MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER AND ARE CONSISTENT THROUGH AROUND 84
HOURS ALSO. MOVING INTO THE MIDTERM THEY ARE SHOWING BETTER
AGREEMENT...BUT STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS.
WILL LEAN ON A BLEND AGAIN TODAY FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A NUDGE
TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER
THE ALCAN BORDER AREA WITH THE AXIS FROM KUPARUK TO CORDOVA THIS
MORNING. A 534 DAM CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA
VALLEY TODAY AND SLIDE EAST AND NORTH WITH THE LOW MOVING OVER
BARTER ISLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING AT 530 DAM WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE ALCAN BORDER. THE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY THE RIDGE
THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE AXIS LIES FROM OVER ADAK TO POINT LAY
AND INTO THE ARCTIC THIS MORNING...ROTATING TO LIE FROM ATKA TO
SLEETMUTE TO DEADHORSE BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND SLIDES EAST TO
LIE FROM CORDOVA TO EAGLE AND NORTH OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER WESTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO
150 NM SOUTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND AT 518 DAM THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAIN AT 516 DAM FRIDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE BERING STRAIT LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIE FROM THE LOW TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS
TO THE WEST SIDE OF COOK INLET BY FRIDAY MORNING CONTINUING EAST
INTO THE YUKON FRIDAY NIGHT. AT 850 HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM LIES FROM
POINT HOPE TO CAPE NEWENHAM THIS MORNING AND WILL LIE FROM POINT
LAY TO TO WESTERN KODIAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BREAK DOWN THE COLD AIR AND PUSH THE ZERO ISOTHERM
SOUTH TO LIE FROM CAPE ROMANZOF TO MCGRATH TO CORDOVA BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

SURFACE...1000 MB LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTH AS
A RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. THE RIDGE LIES FROM
COLD BAY TO MCGRATH TO BARTER ISLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEAST TO LIE FROM COLD BAY TO DENALI PARK TO BANKS ISLAND BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SLIDING INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM A LOW NEARING WRANGEL ISLAND THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THE
LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND LATER THIS EVENING WITH
THE FRONT WORKING INLAND TO LIE FROM POINT LAY TO UNALAKLEET AND
CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM BARROW TO MCGRATH BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE ARCTIC A SECONDARY LOW
WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR.

ARCTIC COAST...SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
EAST OF BARROW THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE ARCTIC TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN AREAS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST COAST
SOUTH OF POINT LAY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ON THE
NORTHWEST COAST WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55
MPH...ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH. RAIN MOVING OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ARCTIC AND BROOKS RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
CONTINUING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC AND BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO
EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN CHANGING TO RAIN IN MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRECIPITATION MOVING OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING MAY START OUT AS SNOW IN AREAS NORTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA...BUT CHANGE TO RAIN BY NOON IN MOST AREAS.
PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY WORK INLAND WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE
MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS OVER THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL SWING AROUND TO WEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND ON THE
NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST WITH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 45 MPH. THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE WINDS
IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. INLAND AREA WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME LINGERING FLURRIES UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF FAIRBANKS. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY
NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES RISING 3 TO 8 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. 

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME...BUT THE NOATAK RIVER BASIN COULD
SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SO WILL KEEP A
CLOSE WATCH OVER THAT AREA. 

&&

.SATELLITE...STRATUS IN THE ARCTIC AND IN THE INTERIOR STANDS OUT
PRETTY GOOD ON THE SPORT MODIS 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 23/0833Z
PRODUCT. NOT SEEING MUCH MOVEMENT IN EITHER AREA. STRATUS ON THE
WEST COAST IS MASKED BY THE HIGHER CLOUDS IN THE AREA. GOES MVFR
PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 23/0845Z AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VAST
AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE WITH A WIDE BAND OF STRATUS
INDICATED WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND
BERING STRAIT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.

&&

$$

SDB SEP 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 222050
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1250 PM AKDT WED JUL 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT ON POSITIONS OF
THE MAJOR FEATURES OUT TO 120 HOURS OR SO. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD
THE NAM FOR PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AGAIN TODAY. 

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...BIG COL OVER THE STATE YESTERDAY HAS DRIFTED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WITH A 564 DAM HIGH NORTH OF PRUDHOE
BAY AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA FROM A HIGH IN THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC...AND A 542 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WITH A 547 DAM LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY. THE PATTERN
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY MOVES TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THE HIGH OVER THE
ARCTIC MOVES OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN
BEAUFORT SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 552 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE GULF OF ANADYR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A LOW IN THE NORTHWEST
BERING SEA. 

SURFACE...PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE. 1003 MB LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A 995 MB LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA. THE LOW IN THE ALASKA RANGE CONTINUES EAST TO THE SOUTHERN
YUKON TERRITORY AND MERGES WITH A 997 MB LOW AS THE LOW IN THE
GULF MOVES SOUTHEAST. LATE THURSDAY EVENING THE THERMAL TROUGH
BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS AND WILL PERSIST OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC PERSISTS
WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC TODAY...AND WILL ROTATE WEST
TO THE DATELINE AND CHUKCHI SEA BY THURSDAY EVENING. A 1002 MB LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT PRODUCT AT
22/1637Z SHOW THE STRATUS ON THE ARCTIC HAS MOVED INLAND OFF THE
COAST BETWEEN BARROW AND PRUDHOE BAY AND THE CLEARING CORRELATES
QUITE WELL WITH THE POSITION OF THE 564 DAM HIGH AT 500 HPA.
EXPECT CLEARING NORTH OF POINT LAY THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES
WEST...WITH STRATUS FLOWING BACK OVER THE COAST AND PLAINS FROM
EAST TO WEST BEHIND THE RIDGE. THE CLEARING WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL SWING A FRONT TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS...BUT EXPECT
EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING TAPERING TO 5 TO 15 MPH BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SCATTERED SHOWERS TAPERING OFF
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS AND WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA TO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM THIS EVENING WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER
KUSKOKWIM AND AROUND MINCHUMINA.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS IN THE ALASKA RANGE THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THEN A REPEAT TOMORROW FOR THE ALASKA RANGE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AS THE THERMAL TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

SATELLITE...NO SPORT MODIS MICROPHYSICS SINCE 22/0918Z SO NO HELP
THERE...BUT THE NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT PRODUCT FROM 22/1637 CLEARLY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE ARCTIC CRUSHING THE STRATUS AS
IT MOVES WEST. 

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...MODELS STILL TRENDING TO A
SOLUTION WITH A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE
UPPER YUKON. STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHOWERY
REGIME OVER THE INTERIOR EAST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALASKA RANGE AND ADJACENT ZONES TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
INTERIOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING EVEN LOWER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT TO
REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER. OVERALL WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 30 TO 40
PERCENT TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MIN RH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S
AND 30S FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE BROOKS RANGE
AND FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ELEVATED RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 40 PERCENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS HAVE ALL LEVELED OFF AND WILL TREND DOWN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO NO ISSUES AT THIS TIME AND DO NOT EXPECT
ANY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB JUL 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 221217
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
317 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 60 HOURS OR SO...THEN
DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE MAJOR FEATURES SHOW UP BUT THEY
ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE BALLPARK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE OVER THE ARCTIC AND HOW THEY HANDLE THE UPPER LOW
AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. THEY DO AGREE THAT
THIS WILL BE A HIT AND RUN COLD SNAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
THEY DISAGREE ON JUST HOW COLD WITH SOME OF THE MODELS HANGING ON
TO CLOUDS WHILE OTHERS CLEAR US OUT RAPIDLY. THE TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE COULD BE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MODELS FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE NAM SINCE THEY
HAVE BEEN DOING A LITTLE BETTER JOB OF LATE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL
MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. 498 DAM LOW OVER BARROW WITH TROUGHING
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 495 DAM THEN MOVES EAST OVER
DEMARCATION POINT BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO CANADA. A
RIDGE WILL CUTOFF THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA WITH A SHORTWAVE
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER BARROW TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WEDNESDAY
MORNING THAT WILL ROTATE TO LIE FROM OVER NUIQSUT TO BETTLES TO
MCGRATH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN FROM BARTER ISLAND TO CHALKYITSIK
TO DOT LAKE THURSDAY MORNING...AND INTO CANADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE RIDGE THAT CUTS OFF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH THE RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR. THE RIDGE CONTINUES
BUILDING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND THE RIDGE WILL LIE FROM THE
WESTERN PACIFIC NORTH OVER KING SALMON TO EMMONAK TO THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING...MOVING EAST TO LIE OVER WHITTIER TO
ANVIK TO SHISHMAREF TO WRANGEL ISLAND THURSDAY EVENING...AND SITKA
TO TANANA TO POINT HOPE FRIDAY MORNING...AND DEASE LAKE BC TO
EAGLE TO POINT LAY LATE FRIDAY. A 531 DAM HIGH WILL BREAK OFF THE
RIDGE SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE UPPER KOYUKUK FLATS...THEN MOVE
SLOWLY EAST. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CUTOFF TROUGH WILL WILL
MERGE WITH A LOW MOVING OFF SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA AND DIG INTO THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
THURSDAY MORNING AT 502 DAM...THEN OVER UNIMAK ISLAND AT 498 DAM
FRIDAY MORNING...AND OVER SAND POINT SATURDAY MORNING AT 516 DAM.
AT 850 HPA...THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM LIES FROM CHALKYITSIK TO
AMBLER TO GAMBLE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS
SOUTH A BIT AND WILL LIE FROM EAGLE TO DELTA JUNCTION TO NENANA TO
TANANA TO KOTZEBUE BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING PUSHED BACK
NORTH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY RETURNING TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW.

SURFACE...RELATIVELY FLAT PATTERN OVER THE AREAS WITH WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW 991 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA. WEAK EAST TO WEST TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA.
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND THE ARCTIC. PATTERN A
BIT MORE ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECT
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUDY...THIS
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY HINDER THE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE INTERIOR THURSDAY WITH A 1028 MB HIGH OVER
AMBLER THURSDAY MORNING...MOVING TO FAIRBANKS AT 1031 MB THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO CANADA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT
WEAKENS. THE NEXT BIG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 964 MB...THEN OSCILLATE AROUND A
BIT OVER THE BERING SEA BEFORE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
AT 951 MB THURSDAY EVENING...AND OVER UNIMAK ISLAND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AT 962 MB.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE COAST AND
PLAINS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE ARCTIC ABOUT 150
MILES OFFSHORE THAT IS DRAGGING EAST. SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS AT 22/0731Z PRETTY MUCH TELLS THE STORY WITH
STRATUS...SOME PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OF THE PASSES THAT
HAVE COLD AIR RUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THEM. TEMPERATURES STEADY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME AREAS IN THE PLAINS FALLING TO AROUND 40
BELOW WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 20S BELOW RANGE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE BERING SEA
THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT SOME FLURRIES WITH THAT. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST SO WILL THE STRATUS AND FLURRIES SO ONLY EXPECTING
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD AIR DIGGING SOUTH BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
DOWN AS THE SKIES CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF
ANVIK WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A FEW OF THE INTERIOR AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES FALL
TO THE 40 BELOW RANGE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION AND THE BERING STRAIT WHICH
WILL SEE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WEDNESDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST PROBLEM
SINCE THE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER WITH THE CLOUDS STICKING AROUND. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE CLOUDY WITH FLURRIES...THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHEN
THE SHORTWAVE CLEARS OUT THE CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS HANG IN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE AROUND. THAT WOULD KEEP US MUCH WARMER THAN IF
WE CLEAR OUT IN THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN FACT
TEMPERATURES COULD BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES DIFFERENT IF THE CLOUDS
HANG AROUND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE ALASKA
RANGE SATURDAY.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ205.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220.

&&

$$

SDB DEC 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 221028
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
228 AM AKDT TUE SEP 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AT 500 HPA AS THEY CONTINUE
WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH AROUND 72 HOURS BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP. AT THE SURFACE SHORT TERM LOOKS
GOOD...BUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDTERM THE POSITION AND STRENGTH
OF FEATURES DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HANDLING OF
THE EXTRA TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE BERING
SEA. MODELS MAINTAIN SOME SIMILARITY EVEN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS WILL
USE A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ALCAN AREA
WITH 533 DAM LOW MOVING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE ALCAN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING THEN MOVES EAST
OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY. BUILDING RIDGE HAS MOVED OVER THE WEST
COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW THAT MOVES TO WRANGEL ISLAND BY THURSDAY
MORNING. RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND FLATTEN AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE
CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY EVENING THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVER
THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. AT 850 HPA...WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY...STRONGEST OVER THE WEST COAST. ZERO
ISOTHERM WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH ABOVE ZERO
TEMPERATURES REACHING NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE CHUKCHI
SEA BY LATE THURSDAY.

SURFACE...999 MB LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTH AS RIDGE
MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND LIES FROM ADAK TO ST PAUL
ISLAND TO NOME TO NUIQSUT TO BANKS ISLAND THIS MORNING. WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE RIDGE WILL LIE FROM COLD BAY TO SLEETMUTE TO BETTLES
TO BANKS ISLAND...AND BY THURSDAY MORNING FROM KING SALMON TO
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO OLD CROW THEN EAST. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO 200 NM WEST OF
WRANGEL ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. FRONT MOVES OVER THE COAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO 100 NM EAST OF WRANGEL
ISLAND...THE FRONT MOVES TO THE MIDDLE YUKON BY THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ARCTIC WITH A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HANG ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THURSDAY MORNING...AND BE
PUSHED INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY MORNING BY THE ADVANCING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

ARCTIC COAST...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE TODAY. NOT MUCH GOING ON TO THE
WEST AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. STRATUS CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST UNDER THE RIDGE. WINDS ARE TURNING TO OFFSHORE AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WEST OF THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCREASING WINDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH AROUND CAPE LISBURNE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
SPREADING UP THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...RIDGE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST AND SOUTH TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVING IN BEHIND THE
RIDGE WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS. WINDS WILL START TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE NORTHERN
CHUKCHI SEA COAST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA MEANS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH WILL START ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
LATE THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST OVER THE COASTAL AREAS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 0.75 INCH OVER THE
NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST AND THE NOATAK RIVER BASIN...WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND NORTON SOUND WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE FROM DENALI PARK WEST TODAY AND OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE...OTHERWISE CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL SWITCH AROUND
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTHEAST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. INCREASED SURF CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NORTON SOUND...KOTZEBUE SOUND...THE NORTHWEST
COAST...AND AROUND BARROW. MODELED COASTAL SURGE IN THOSE AREAS
IS CURRENTLY UP TO 2.5 FEET WHICH IS NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
BARROW...KOTZEBUE...AND SHISHMAREF.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE UPPER
NOATAK WITH THE INCOMING RAINFALL.

&&

.SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 22/0749Z SHOWS A
RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE ARCTIC NORTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AND NORTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA...THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...AND A BIG PATCH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE YUKON FLATS TO THE TANANA FLATS AND OVER THE
NORTH SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE. GOES MVFR PROBABILITY
PRODUCT AT 22/0930Z AND OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM IT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SDB SEP 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 212125 CCA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
125 PM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITIONS OF THE MAJOR FEATURES OUT TO
120 HOURS OR SO. AS IS GENERALLY THE CASE...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
A LITTLE OVER EXUBERANT WITH THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...SO WILL
LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM FOR COVERAGE. THE 850 TEMPERATURE
INITIALIZED ABOUT 0.5 DEGREE WARMER THAN THE 12Z UPPER AIR AT
MOST SITES...THE EXCEPTION WAS BARROW AND THEY INITIALIZED ABOUT
0.5 DEGREE TOO COLD.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...BIG COL OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
568 DAM HIGH OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA AND A 598 DAM HIGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC...AND A 542 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WITH A 544 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. COL
DEVELOPS INTO A TROUGH AS THE HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC MOVES WEST AND
WEAKENS TO 565 DAM...THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WEAKENS A
LITTLE...AND THE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA PUSHES EAST OVER THE
PRIBILOFS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO KODIAK ISLAND
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA.

SURFACE...RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND
STRENGTHEN A BIT WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP...THEN RELAX
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SWINGS TO THE WEST NEAR THE DATELINE. WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN YUKON TO COPPER RIVER
BASIN TO UPPER KUSKOKWIM TO BERING STRAIT TODAY AND WILL REMAIN
IN THAT GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 16 HOURS WHEN A 998 MB LOW
DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN ALASKA RANGE...THEN MOVES TO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 1002 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER BARREN ISLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST TO THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER YUKON THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...EAST OF POINT LAY OVER THE COAST
STRATUS...FOG...WINDS...NOT GOING TO SEE MUCH CHANGE HERE. MODIS
SPORT 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 21/1547Z SHOWS THE STRATUS REACHING
ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND OVER THE PLAINS...BUT EXPECT THAT TO BURN
OFF PRETTY QUICKLY INLAND DURING THE DAY OVER THE PLAINS.
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE AT TIMES...BUT FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
IN OFF THE ARCTIC AND WITH IT STRATUS. NOT SEEING ANY REASON FOR
THAT TO CHANGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY...THEN START TO DIMINISH. WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME AREAS GUSTING TO AROUND
35 MPH. INLAND AREAS ON THE PLAINS AND THE BROOKS RANGE AND SOUTH
OF POINT LAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER
WINDS THAN THE COASTAL AREAS.


WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO GALENA TO MINCHUMINA
AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF KALTAG AND OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.


CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST
AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE SOME SHOWERS MAY LEAK INTO DENALI NP AND
AROUND LAKE MINCHUMINA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF
THE RANGE...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS IN THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT THEM TO GET NORTH OF THE RANGE...THEN SOME OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY. AS THE THERMAL TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS MICROPHYSICS AT 21/1547Z SHOWS THE STRATUS
ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND PLAINS...AND DENSE FOG OVER THE YUKON
RIVER EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE FOG IN OVER THE YUKON RIVER IS
CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 21/1600Z.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
THE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR STARTING SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
EXTENDING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH SOME
DRYING IN THE CENTRAL...NORTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES DIPPING BACK BELOW 40 PERCENT. THERMAL
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WEST COAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS TO THE COAST. THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS RUNNING UP A BIT FROM THE LAST RAIN
EVENT...BUT NOT NEAR ANY ACTION STAGE. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS
TRENDING SLOWLY UP STILL BUT THEY WILL START TO TREND DOWN AS
WEEK GET INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB JUL 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 152233
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
133 PM AKST SUN NOV 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. NEAR
TERM THROUGH 36 HOURS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. BEYOND THAT
THEY START DIVERGING RAPIDLY ON POSITION OF THE MAJOR FEATURES
WITH THE GFS MOVING THINGS EAST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE EC AND
CANADIAN MODELS...AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE NAM. WILL LEAN ON
A BLEND OF THE CURRENT DATABASE AND MODELS FOR FIRST 36 TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY...AND LEAN TOWARD THE GFS WITH A BLEND FOR
THE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. EXTENDED PERIODS WILL GET
MORE INTERESTING AS THE MODELS SHOW BIGGER SPREADS AS WE MOVE
INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PERIOD WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...BROAD TROUGHY PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA. A 506 DAM LOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE YUKON. A 508 DAM LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE UPPER
KOBUK BY MONDAY EVENING. A 498 DAM LOW ON THE SIBERIAN ARCTIC
COAST WILL MOVE TO THE GULF OF ANADYR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
BECOME STATIONARY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
RANGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN BUILD NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BERING STRAIT DEEPENS. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM OVER
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO CHIGNIK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES
EAST AS I MASHES THE RIDGE DOWN A BIT AND WILL LIE FROM COLDFOOT
TO CORDOVA BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES INTO THE YUKON. THE
RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH AND COVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE AS TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
LATE IN THE WEEK. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES OVER THE INLAND AREAS
AND ARCTIC WILL REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...COASTAL AREAS A BIT WARMER. AS WE MOVE
INTO THE MID RANGE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL START OVER THE
WEST COAST SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT...AND EVENTUALLY OVER MOST
OF THE STATE.

SURFACE...996 MB LOW NEAR YAKUTAT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A 988 MB
LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS EVENING. THE 988 MB LOW WILL
MOVE TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN
INLAND OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. A 993 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE
GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY. A 994 MB LOW OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND
WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE LOW OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BERING STRAIT MONDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS EVENING WILL PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ARCTIC
WILL REMAIN WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR TUESDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS
IMAGERY AT 15/1519Z SHOWS SOME PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL
ARCTIC COAST AND OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN WITH MORE NORTH OF THE
COAST MOVING SOUTH. SO EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY WITH FLURRIES OVER
THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. MAINLY FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS SO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NO BIG CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP OVER
THE ARCTIC PLAIN WINDS WEST OF BARROW WILL BE EAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH WINDS EAST OF BARROW WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER
THE BERING STRAIT WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT OVERALL PRETTY QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. MID WEEK WILL BRING A
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL SEND SEVERAL WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOOKING
LIKE THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL ISSUES...BUT WILL WATCH
IT CLOSELY SINCE A SMALL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY THE LOWS COULD
BRING BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEST COAST. A FEW
FLURRIES OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL BE ABOUT IT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS ST LAWRENCE
AND TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA TUESDAY EVENING...THEN TO THE SEWARD
PENINSULA AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
LIGHT WITH GENERALLY NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS MONDAY
EVENING. CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
BREAKING UP. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE AND THOSE WILL MAINLY BE
INDUSTRIAL TYPE FLURRIES...BUT NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER IN THE CLOUDY AREAS.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE WEST COAST AS THE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS MOVE TO THE
AREA. MODELS STILL SHOWING QUIET A BIT OF SPREAD IN SPEED AND
LOCATION. AS IT STANDS IT LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEMS WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT IT SHOULD NOT CREATE MANY PROBLEMS FOR AREAS
NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...BUT IF THE LOWS END UP BEING FURTHER
NORTH THAT WOULD BRING MORE PROBLEMS TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE BERING
STRAIT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.

&&

$$

SDB NOV 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 142125
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
125 PM AKDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR...AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BREAKS AWAY FROM THE MAIN LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND MOVES SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEY ALSO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF MAJOR FEATURES OVER
THE ARCTIC AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MID AND EXTENDED PERIODS...PREFER
THE GFS SOLUTION A BIT MORE SINCE IS APPEARS TO BE MORE SEASONALLY
CORRECT SO IT WILL BE THE MAJORITY OF ANY BLEND. PRECIPITATION
WISE ALL THE MODELS ARE TRENDING THE SAME WAY SO WILL USE A BLEND
FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A LEAN ON THE SREF FOR PROBABILITIES.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A BRANCH OF THE RIDGE WITH 564 DAM HEIGHTS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR LIES OVER THE ALCAN BORDER TODAY AND
WILL MOVE EAST INTO CANADA. A SECOND BRANCH OF THE RIDGE LIES FROM
SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND TO EASTERN NORTON SOUND THEN NORTHWEST OVER
THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA...AND WILL SLIDE EAST TO LIE FROM YAKUTAT
TO LAKE MINCHUMINA TO POINT HOPE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH 564 DAM
HEIGHT REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...THEN FROM DAWSON TO
ATIGUN PASS TO POINT LAY BY SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY INTO
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN LOW
OVER THE BERING SEA TONIGHT AND LIE FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND TO
SOUTHWEST KODIAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM MCGRATH TO
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK TROUGHING
WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE LOW NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN A COOLING TREND. ZERO
ISOTHERM IS NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST AND WILL MOVE SOUTH TO LIE
FROM POINT LAY TO NUIQSUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME
STATIONARY...THEN SLIP SOUTH TO LIE FROM POINT LAY THEN ALONG THE
NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE TO BARTER ISLAND BY MONDAY
MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK.

SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE. WEAK RIDGING WILL SHIFT TO OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND UPPER
YUKON FLATS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND EXTEND EAST ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF
THE ALASKA RANGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS SATURDAY. TROUGH WILL LIE
FROM ST MATTHEW ISLAND TO KOTZEBUE SOUND THEN EAST TO BETTLES AND
SOUTHEAST TO DAWSON YUKON BY SUNDAY MORNING...REMAINING RELATIVELY
STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TROUGHING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH OVER
THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SHOWERS ENDING TONIGHT...BUT
STRATUS AND FOG PERSISTING OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A LITTLE
COOLER BUT NOT EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES UNTIL
MONDAY/TUESDAY FOR THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM ATQASUK TO
NUIQSUT. WINDS NORTHWEST TO NORTH BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST NEXT
24 HOURS. WINDS SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. 

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SURFACE LOW OVER THE PRIBILOFS
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SPREADING RAIN OR SHOWERS NORTH TO THE SEWARD
PENINSULA AND EAST OVER THE LOWER YUKON SOUTH OF GALENA WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THE NEXT 36 HOURS OF AROUND 0.50 INCH. WINDS ON
THE COAST GENERALLY OFFSHORE 5 TO 15 MPH AS THE LOW MOVES TO
NUNIVAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT INLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...DIRTY RIDGE WILL KEEP A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES SO WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY THEN A COOLING
TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EAST OF FAIRBANKS...SOUTH OF FORT YUKON...AND NORTH OF
CHICKEN SATURDAY EVENING. 

&&

.SATELLITE...QUITE A BIT OF MVFR ON THE GOES PROBABILITY PRODUCT
FROM 14/1745Z...MATCHES UP PRETTY WELL WITH THE SPORT MODIS 24HR
MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT...AND AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM IT. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN MOST OF THE ARCTIC EVEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SINCE IT WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE AREA. 

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...QUIET. SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE...IF NOT WELL ABOVE...30
PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EXCELLENT RECOVERY WILL
CONTINUE...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SOUTH
OF CHICKEN AND EAST OF THE TOK CUTOFF WHICH WILL SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

SDB AUG 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 132148
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1248 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH
VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES. AFTER 12 HOURS WILL PRIMARILY GO WITH A
BLEND OF THE NEW GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECASTS TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY. FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PERSISTENCE
FOR MOST AREAS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR. A SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM 497 DAM LOW 200 NM NORTH OF
BARTER ISLAND OVER ARCTIC VILLAGE TO DENALI PARK TO ILLIAMNA AND
WILL MOVE INTO CANADA LATE THIS EVENING...A SECOND SHORTWAVE
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SOUTHWEST OVER DEADHORSE TO AMBLER AND WILL
ROTATE EAST TO LIE FROM THE LOW TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MINCHUMINA
LATE THIS EVENING. THE LOW MOVES TO 100 NM NORTHEAST OF DEADHORSE
WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER HELMUT MOUNTAIN TO
CENTRAL TO TALKEETNA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOMING STATIONARY.
A 500 DAM LOW IN SOUTHERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO 200 NM
WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THEN MOVE SOUTH
AROUND 502 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT OVER TANANA. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST IN THE
20 TO 25 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...978 MB LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THEN BE ABSORBED BY A 985 MB LOW THAT DEVELOPS THIS
EVENING AND MOVES NEAR CORDOVA. THE LOW WILL THEN PERSIST OVER
THE YAKUTAT AREA THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A LOW
MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY. A LOW IN SOUTHERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE NEAR ST MATTHEW
ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN SOUTHEAST TO THE PRIBILOFS BY
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BE
ABSORBED BY THE LOW IN THE GULF. A BROAD CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP OVER MAINLAND ALASKA SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS
IMAGERY AT 12/1943Z SHOWS SOME PATCHY STRATUS IN THE ARCTIC AROUND
THE LOW NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND AS WELL AS OVER THE PLAINS AND
NORTHWEST COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME MOVEMENT TO THE EAST IN
THE STRATUS AROUND THE LOW...WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT OVER THE
PLAINS AND NORTHWEST COAST BUT IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING VERY
SLOWLY EAST. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE OVER THE EASTERN
ARCTIC...THE LOW IS NOT MOVING SOON...SO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
HANG AROUND. ON THE NORTHWEST COAST STRATUS WILL PERSIST...BUT
EXPECT IT TO MOVE EAST INTO BARROW THIS AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER
AND TO NUIQSUT THIS EVENING. SOME FLURRIES IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE
CLOUDS...BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IF ANY IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE CHANGING MUCH...BUT EXPECT COLDER IF IT
CLEARS OUT. WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
TO THE EAST OF DEADHORSE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ALL IN ALL PRETTY QUIET. WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS...BUT NOT MUCH
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IF ANY. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING...BUT NOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD...AND WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH EXCEPT ON
THE MOST WESTERN CAPES WHICH WILL SEE WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND COULD SEE ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL LOOKS TO BE ONLY 2 TO 4
INCHES AT MOST. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE MUCH HARDER TO
FIGURE OUT WITH THE BENIGN PATTERN NOT MUCH IS MOVING AROUND SO
AREAS MAY SEE FOG AND STRATUS HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...LOOKING LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS GOING TO HANG AROUND THE AREAS SO SPITTY FLURRIES AND PATCHY
FOG WITH CONTINUE. LOW THAT SLUNG SOME SNOW OVER THE UPPER TANANA
AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY IS MOVING OFF SO THAT WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
WITH WEAK HIGH BUILDING OVER THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SOME CLEARING
ON SATURDAY...BUT THE RIDGE IS PRETTY DIRTY SO WILL KEEP MOST
AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES UNLESS AN AREA
CLEARS OUT ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW
THEM TO BOTTOM OUT.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. A WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK COULD
PRESENT SOME PROBLEMS...BUT AT THIS TIME MODEL SPREAD IT TOO BIG
SO LITTLE CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-
PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

&&

$$

SDB NOV 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 122112
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1212 PM AKST THU NOV 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE ONLY REAL
DIFFERENCE IS IN THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE POSITIONS. WILL
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY USING A BLEND OF THE CURRENT DATABASE AND
MODELS. WILL NUDGE THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES UP A BIT
WITH THE SREF.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH A A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND BERING
STRAIT. A SHORTWAVE LIES FROM A 494 DAM LOW IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC
SOUTHWEST OVER BARTER ISLAND TO GALENA. AS THE ARCTIC LOW SLOWLY
MOVES WEST THE SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TO LIE FROM OVER
BARTER ISLAND TO DELTA JUNCTION FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 500 DAM LOW
DEVELOPING OVER DELTA JUNCTION. A SECOND SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW WHICH WILL BE JUST NORTH OF DEADHORSE WILL MOVE OVER THE
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST THIS EVENING AND LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO
KOTZEBUE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW OVER DELTA JUNCTION WILL MOVE
EAST INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY MORNING AT 504 DAM WHILE THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LIE FROM BARTER ISLAND TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO SLEETMUTE BY SATURDAY MORNING. A 499 DAM LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO YAKUTAT THIS EVENING SPINNING
MOISTURE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE LOW WILL BE ABSORBED
INTO THE LOW OVER DELTA JUNCTION FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL BE ENHANCED BY A TRANSITORY RIDGE THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN IS SHOVED SOUTH BY THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC SATURDAY. A 495 DAM
LOW OVER CENTRAL SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL BERING SEA
BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. AT 850 HPA...COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 20 BELOW BY LATE SATURDAY...THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL SEE THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

SURFACE...963 MB LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST OVER GUSTAVUS TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS TO 974 MB. THE LOW
THEN SPLITS WITH A 981 MB LOW REGRESSING BACK OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND A 981 MB LOW MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUKON
TERRITORY. A 987 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC WILL REMAIN
QUASI STATIONARY INTO SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
ARCTIC AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. MOISTURE WILL SWING NORTH AROUND THE
LOW SPREADING SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THIS EVENING AND
WEST OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND NORTH TO THE YUKON RIVER BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING. A ENHANCED BAND
OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND CHUKCHI
SEA AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN
WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A LOW OVER NORTHERN KAMCHATKA
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA THIS EVENING REMAINING OVER
THE AREA...THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER COLD BAY BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SPORT MODIS IMAGERY AT 12/1539Z
SHOWS A PRETTY DISTINCT CLEARING LINE OVER THE ARCTIC. BARROW HAS
CLEARED OUT AND IR SATELLITE INDICATES THE CLEARING LINE IS
CONTINUING SLOWLY SOUTH AND IT LOOKS PRETTY CLEAR OVER THE ARCTIC
WATERS FOR NOW...BUT THE NEXT WAVE WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE
COAST LATER THIS EVENING. EXPECT FLURRIES IN AREAS WITH CLOUDS
WITH NO ACCUMULATION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOR THE ARCTIC
COAST...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND BARTER ISLAND WHERE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TO 15 TO 25 MPH. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
SINCE THERE IS SOME CLEARING GOING ON AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE THE
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IF IT STAYS CLEAR.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...BAND OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA...THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA...AND LOWER YUKON DELTA. SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE AREAS SOUTH OF THE BERING
STRAIT MOVING EAST TOMORROW OVER THE NORTON SOUND REGION. ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND THE LOWER YUKON
DELTA COAST COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INLAND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER KOYUKUK RIVER IS
KICKING OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECT IN THE INLAND AREAS. NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE TREND NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WINDS ON THE COAST
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 25 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND LOWER YUKON DELTA COASTS.
INLAND AREAS WILL HAVE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...LOW IN THE GULF IS SPINNING
MOISTURE UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO
THE THE AREA THIS EVENING. SNOW IS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED IN THE
SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IT MOVING
NORTH AND WEST AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD YAKUTAT. SNOW WILL SPREAD
OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND UPPER TANANA THIS EVENING THEN
WEST OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY BY
FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY WILL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP A BIT
TO 2 TO 4 INCHES. FROM DELTA JUNCTION WEST SNOWFALL WILL TAPER
FROM AROUND AN INCH TO TRACE AMOUNTS IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE.
COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL HELP
KEEP THE TEMPERATURE UP A BIT...BUT WHEN IT CLEARS OUT AGAIN
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START FALLING AGAIN.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CURRENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS BECOME INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT A MORE ACTIVE AND
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A STORM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA OR ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN SIBERIA COAST. A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT COULD BEGIN
ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOW SPREADING TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY. A
MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR...BUT 1000-850 MB LAYER MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW IN THE INTERIOR AND MOST OR ALL OF THE
WEST COAST. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
EVOLUTION AND DETAILS OF THIS MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. RF

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

&&

$$

SDB NOV 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 072119
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1219 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS STARTING TO SHOW UP AS WE MOVE
PAST THE NEAR TERM. THEY CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
SHORT TERM AND ARE COMING IN LINE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. INITIALIZED WELL AT 18Z AGAINST THE SURFACE ANALYSIS.
WILL GO WITH A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM...BUT EVEN THAT WILL BE A
BIT PROBLEMATIC...WITH THE STRATUS FLOATING AROUND AS WELL AS
DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING PATCHES. THE MODELS JUST DO NOT HAVE
THE ABILITY TO FORECAST THE STRATUS AND THE DYNAMICS IT CREATES.
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE SINCE ANY CLEARING WILL ALLOW
FOR MAX COOLING.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...503 DAM LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA HAS MOVED
OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AT 500 DAM...AND WILL
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO BE OVER BARROW AT 499 DAM TUESDAY
MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TO 493 DAM AS IT SITS
OVER BARROW WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING AND CONNECTING UP WITH A 499
DAM LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE LIES FROM
WATSON LAKE TO YAKUTAT TO ANVIK AND SOUTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
AND WILL WEAKEN TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS AS THE AXIS MOVES TO LIE
FROM DAWSON TO GALENA TO OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL WORK
IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND LIE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. A
A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC. A 1002 MB LOW THAT
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT NEAR BARROW REMAINS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS TROUGHING EXPANDS TO THE EAST AND A 999 MB
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR MCKENZIE BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

SATELLITE...MODIS AND NPP VIIRS SPORT NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ESSENTIAL IN PINPOINTING THE STRATUS OVER THE
STATE THE LAST FEW DAYS. PRODUCT AT 07/1534Z CLEARLY SHOWS THE
STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR...NORTHWEST COAST...CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...AND MACKENZIE
BAY...AS WELL AS THE SHREDS THAT ARE JUST FLOATING AROUND. SPORT
PRODUCTS ARE GREAT TOOLS FOR TRACKING THE STRATUS.

ARCTIC COAST...WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND STRATUS HAS
DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF NUIQSUT SO FAR. EXPECT IT TO EXPAND TO
THE EAST...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN TO SAY THE LEAST. QUITE A BIT
OF STRATUS IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE CLOUDY BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES
FOR MOST AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS AS THE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES STEADY TONIGHT IN THE
WESTERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS PERSISTS AND STEADY OR RISING TO THE
EAST AS THE CLOUDS MOVE INTO...DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS...STRATUS REMAINS OVER
THE NORTHWEST AREAS BUT APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING ALONG THE EDGES
A BIT. EXPECT SOME CLEARING...BUT SHREDS OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OR FLOAT THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME FLURRIES. NOT
EXPECTING THE STRATUS TO REDEVELOP...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE
IT COULD. SOME WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER YUKON AND AROUND
NORTON SOUND WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH NEAR THE LOWER YUKON
COAST. TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER ON THE LOWER YUKON..INLAND AREAS
WITH STRATUS WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER TO FIGURE OUT AS TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY IN AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT...SO WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE COLDER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BE WARMER IF THEY
REMAIN OR BECOME CLOUD COVERED.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THE STRATUS REALLY DID A NUMBER ON
THE TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT WITH THE AREA MAINLY MUCH WARMER
SINCE THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE
FORECAST TODAY IS JUST A DIFFICULT SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SIGNIFICANTLY IF IT CLEARS OUT. THERE IS NO INDICATION ON
SATELLITE OR IN THE THE MODELS THAT IT WILL...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD
A WARMER FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220.

&&

$$

SDB DEC 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 062237
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
137 PM AKST SUN DEC 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUED QUIET OVER THE STATE BUT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
IS STARTING TO SHOW UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN THE NEAR TERM WITH SOME DEVIATION AS THEY GO INTO
THE MID TERM. THE 12Z RUN INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS. WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM THEN LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE
LAST FEW RUNS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...503 DAM LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST TO BE OVER BARROW AT 499 DAM TUESDAY MORNING. AN EAST
TO WEST RIDGE THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL MOVE NORTH TO LIE FROM WATSON LAKE TO
YAKUTAT TO ANVIK AND SOUTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS AS THE
AXIS MOVES TO LIE FROM DAWSON TO GALENA TO OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE RETREATS TO THE EAST A
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER BARROW WILL EXTEND SOUTH TO A
501 DAM LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. 

SURFACE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA. A 1014 MB HIGH NEAR BANKS ISLAND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ARCTIC.
A 974 MB LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST NEAR SITKA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH AND DISSIPATE NEAR CAPE SPENCER MONDAY AFTERNOON. A 968
MB LOW NEAR NIKOLSKI REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. A 964 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND MOVE
TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA BY TUESDAY MORNING AT 952
MB...THEN SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO BE NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

SATELLITE...MODIS SPORT NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 06/2055Z SHOWING
SOME LARGE PATCHES OF STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND
ARCTIC AS WELL AS THE MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF KALTAG. THERE IS
ALSO A LARGE PATCH THAT HAS MOVES WEST OVER THE YUKON FLATS AND A
PATCH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY. 

ARCTIC COAST...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THE
ONLY QUESTION WILL BE WHEN THE LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA. SOME PATCHY STRATUS IS ALREADY FLOATING AROUND BUT EXPECT
THAT TO EXPAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES ACROSS
THE AREA. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 20 MPH.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS...MAINLY NORTH OF
KALTAG AND NOT MOVING MUCH. EXPECT SOME FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL GENERALLY BE
OFFSHORE WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES UNLESS IT CLEARS OUT IN AREAS AND THEN THE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL PRETTY SHARPLY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
FAIRBANKS AREA...AND STRATUS HAS MOVED OVER THE YUKON FLATS. SEE
NO REASON FOR IT TO DISSIPATE. FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WITH CLEAR AREAS
SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP SHARPLY. 

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

&&

$$

SDB DEC 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 061100
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
300 AM AKDT THU AUG 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...FEW HOURS SLOW IN MOVING THE TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR
EAST ON INITIALIZATION AT 06Z...BUT OVERALL THEY HAVE BEEN PRETTY
GOOD THE LAST FEW RUNS. GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODELS AS THEY MOVE INTO
THE MID RANGE.

ALOFT...SHORTWAVE HAS COME INTO PHASE WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WILL MOVE EAST TO LIE FROM OVER KOMAKUK
BEACH YUKON TO GLENNALLEN BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND OUT OF THE
STATE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM BRISTOL
BAY TO NORTH OF BARROW THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TO LIE FROM
KODIAK ISLAND TO EAGLE TO BARTER ISLAND AND NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
INTO CANADA...WHILE WEAK RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SOUTHEAST
OF FAIRBANKS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE THURSDAY EVENING AS A 537 DAM LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST OVER WRANGEL ISLAND. THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS
IT MOVES NEAR THE NORTHWEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AT 532 DAM WITH
TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW MOVES TO 150 NM NORTH
OF BARROW AT 530 DAM WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER
KOTZEBUE AND NUNIVAK ISLAND. BY MONDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE 300
NM NORTH OF CAPE HALKETT WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER
AMBLER AND NUNIVAK ISLAND.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH BEING SHOVED INTO THE YUKON THIS MORNING.
RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE FROM A 1020 MB HIGH 100
NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY TO A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
LIE FROM THE UPPER YUKON FLATS TO NUNIVAK ISLAND TO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 998 MB 200 NM NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL
ISLAND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO BE 150 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT LAY
FRIDAY MORNING AT 1000 MB. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD EAST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE INTERIOR. 

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WITH HIGH NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY
OFFSHORE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST...FLOW TO THE WEST OF DEADHORSE AND
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST. AS HIGH MOVES EAST TODAY OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL SPREAD EAST AND STRENGTHEN A BIT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. NOT MUCH
PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF...BUT AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
CHUKCHI SEA TODAY IT WILL PUSH A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST
COAST SPREADING RAIN AS FAR EAST AS BARROW BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. THE LOW WILL ALSO BRING SOME
MODERATE SURF TO THE NORTHWEST COAST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT EROSION.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHOWERS
MOVING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BERING STRAIT TONIGHT IT LOOKS
QUIET TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER MOST
COASTAL AREAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST SLOWLY. WINDS TO
30 MPH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA...OTHERWISE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15
MPH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE
MOVED EAST OF A LINE FROM CHALKYITSIK TO BIRCH LAKE AND SOUTH.
EXPECT THEM TO SETTLE DOWN A LITTLE THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AND IN THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY SOUTH OF AMERICAN SUMMIT. REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH NO SHOWERS EXPECTED.
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN SPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES TODAY...THEN WARMING BACK UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY. 

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOST AREAS REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 MPH SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RED FLAG
CONDITIONS TODAY OR FRIDAY. EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. QUITE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...SO MAY SEE A FEW FIRES START UP
IN ZONES 220 AND 223. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SO RIVERS WILL REMAIN STEADY
OR FALLING SLOWLY.

&&

.SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS RGB NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT
06/0843Z IDENTIFYING A LOT OF STRATUS OVER THE ARCTIC AND IT IS
CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR PRODUCT. LOOKS LIKE THE LOWEST
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE...BUT STRATIFIED DECK OF CLOUDS REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. 

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

SDB AUG 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 052215
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
115 PM AKST SAT DEC 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
HANDLING THINGS WELL OF LATE AND INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIODS OVER THE ARCTIC SINCE THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY
BEYOND 132 HOURS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN INTO CANADA BY LATE
EVENING. 507 DAM LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST. A 501 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE
SOUTHWEST...THEN SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AN EAST TO WEST
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WITH THE AXIS LYING FROM WATSON LAKE TO
YAKUTAT TO BETHEL TO ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM WHITEHORSE TO ANCHORAGE TO ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN FROM DAWSON TO MANLEY HOT
SPRINGS AND OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY TUESDAY MORNING. A 513
DAM LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE TO OFF THE COAST NEAR SITKA
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER YAKUTAT BY
MONDAY MORNING. A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TODAY
WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST.
A 507 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MONDAY AND MOVE TO
THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.

SURFACE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA WITH A 1038 MB HIGH OVER THE SIBERIAN ARCTIC AND A 958 MB
LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. A LOW COMPLEX WITH SEVERAL CENTERS
WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. A 964 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
WILL MOVE TO OFF THE COAST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE UP THE COAST TO NEAR SITKA BY MONDAY
MORNING. A 964 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY TUESDAY MORNING AT 949
MB...AND TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO BARTER ISLAND.

ARCTIC COAST...THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS IF AND POSSIBLY WHEN THE
STRATUS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE COAST...WITH NO OPEN WATER IT IS
MORE LIKELY THAT THE STRATUS WILL HOLD OFF UNLESS THERE IS
SOMETHING THAT BRINGS IT INTO THE AREA. A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST...SHOWS UP FAIRLY WELL ON THE 05/0826Z MODIS SPORT 25HR
MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT...MAY BRING SOME STRATUS TO THE AREA...BUT
FOR NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANYTHING THAT WILL LAST FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO SOME STRATOCUMULUS THAT CAN BE
SEEN ON THE GOES13 IR THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE ARCTIC...BUT THAT
APPEARS TO BE PRETTY BROKEN UP AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL APART
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS UP A BIT. MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 5
TO 15 MPH...THOUGH SOME GUST WINDS IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE
WILL CONTINUE NEAR PASSES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS
FLOATING AROUND...BUT NOT MUCH ORGANIZED OVER THE AREA. A PRETTY
INTERESTING AREA OF BLACK STRATUS SHOWING UP THAT EXTENDS FROM
AROUND LAKE ILLIAMNA NORTH OVER MCGRATH AND TANANA HAS DEVELOPED
AND CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. NOT SURE WHAT IS CAUSING THIS...BUT
IT SHOWS UP PRETTY GOOD ON THE GOES13 IR AND LOOKS LIKE IT REALLY
STARTED DEVELOPING ON THE 05/1030Z IMAGE. NOT SURE WHAT THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STRATUS WILL BE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT CONTINUES TO
EXPAND SO WILL KEEP IT OVER THE MCGRATH AND VICINITY AND SOUTHERN
ZONE 216 FOR THE NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE ALONG
THE COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL.
THE STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THAT EXTENDS NORTH FROM
AROUND LAKE ILLIAMNA CONTINUES TO EXPAND...SO WILL MAINTAIN IT
OVER THE AREA TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS...BUT NOT SURE WHAT THE
EVOLUTION OF IT WILL BE SO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT AS IT COULD
MOVE OVER PART OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WITH CLOUDY AREAS
MUCH WARMER THAT CLEAR AREAS.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

$$

SDB DEC 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 050951
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
151 AM AKDT WED AUG 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...RUN TO RUN CONTINUES TO BE GOOD. 00Z RUN INITIALIZED
WELL AT 06Z. BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH AS IT DIGS IN OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE TODAY AS IT
CONTINUES MOVING EAST. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT IN
THE POSITION AND EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT WILL MOVE TO THE
CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY. WILL USE THE NAM AND SREF AGAIN TODAY FOR
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

ALOFT...LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO CONTINUES TO DIG IN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
A 553 DAM LOW 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE EAST TO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
THE RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR YESTERDAY GETS SQUEEZED OUT WITH
SOME WEAK RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST THE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH BACK OVER
THE AREA WITH 561 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY
MORNING AND THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE
THURSDAY EVENING AS A 537 DAM LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER WRANGEL
ISLAND. THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AT 533 DAM WITH TROUGHING
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
BY SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW MOVES OVER BARROW AT 533 DAM WITH THE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER KOTZEBUE AND ST MATTHEW ISLAND. BY
MONDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE 400 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT
WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER AMBLER AND NUNIVAK
ISLAND.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A 1006 MB LOW
OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO
THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AND ANOTHER EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FORTYMILE COUNTRY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH A 1029 MB CENTER
EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO A 1022 MB CENTER IN
THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE RIDGE WILL TILT MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND THE HIGH IN THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE TO 100 NM
NORTHEAST OF BARROW BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT 1021 MB. A 1004
MB LOW IN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO 200 NM NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND
THURSDAY MORNING AT 996 MB...THEN CONTINUE EAST TO BE 250 NM
NORTHWEST OF POINT LAY FRIDAY MORNING AT 1000 MB. WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR FRIDAY. A
CONVERGENT AREA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STATE FROM DEADHORSE TO
FAIRBANKS TO LAKE MINCHUMINA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
EAST OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY...THEN SOUTHEAST OF DELTA JUNCTION
THURSDAY. FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW IN CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO
AMBLER TO NOME BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND FROM BARTER ISLAND TO
TANANA TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE COAST WITH
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AS THE HIGH BREAKS OFF AND MOVES TO JUST
NORTHEAST OF BARROW. AS IT MOVES EAST WINDS WEST OF BARROW WILL
BECOME OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST EAST OF BARROW AS THE HIGH MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE HIGH
ARCTIC. SOME CLEARING TODAY WEST OF BARROW WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW. AS SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES EAST RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
EAST OF BARROW WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE BROOKS RANGE AS
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. WINDS 5 TO 15
MPH FOR MOST AREAS TODAY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE WHICH WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE THERMAL
TROUGH IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS. AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
CHUKCHI SEA LATE THURSDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF ON THE
NORTHWEST COAST SO WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT IT.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...LOTS OF STRATUS IN THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS OF THE BERING AND CHUKCHI SEAS...NORTON AND KOTZEBUE
SOUNDS...AND THE BERING STRAIT. ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD SO EXPECT STRATUS TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE ALONG THE
COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SPREADING
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE THURSDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH SURF NORTH OF KIVALINA ON THE COAST SO WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT IT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...INTERESTING FORECAST TODAY. MOST OF
IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE CONVERGENT ZONE AND THERMAL TROUGH
ARE WHEN THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TO BE EAST OF FAIRBANKS
TODAY...BUT THE AREA COULD SET UP OVER FAIRBANKS TO BEGIN
WITH. SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY BE EAST OF A LINE FROM COLDFOOT
TO FAIRBANKS TO LAKE MINCHUMINA TODAY...THEN SOUTHEAST OF DELTA
JUNCTION ON THURSDAY. HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE 70S TODAY...THEN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY AND THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRIDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING. WINDS REMAINING LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 25 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW AREAS MANAGED TO GET BELOW 30 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY YESTERDAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN
TODAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS KICKED OUT OF THE INTERIOR. SOME WINDS
IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT SO NO RED FLAG ISSUES. GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH RIDGE BUILDING BACK
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE FIRES TO KICK BACK UP. THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY WILL ALSO LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR NEW STARTS...MAINLY
EAST OF FAIRBANKS. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS STEADY OR FALLING SLOWLY...SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY ISSUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS RGB NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT
05/0750Z CLEARLY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS FLOATING AROUND IN
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE BERING AND CHUKCHI SEAS...NORTON AND
KOTZEBUE SOUNDS...AS WELL AS OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE
LOWER YUKON DELTA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

SDB AUG 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 041052
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
252 AM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...RUN TO RUN HAS BEEN GOOD WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
AROUND 48 HOURS THIS RUN. MODELS ARE REALLY HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME FIGURING OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE STATE
BEYOND THAT...BUT THERE ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN MOVING IT EAST IS
ONE FORM OR ANOTHER. GFS LOOKS A LITTLE OVER FORECAST WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AS USUAL AND THE ECMWF A LITTLE UNDER FORECAST...SO
WILL LEAN ON THE NAM AND SREF AGAIN TODAY.

ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ARCTIC THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA
AND BERING STRAIT BY LATE TONIGHT. 524 DAM LOW 400 NM NORTH OF
BANKS ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. THE
TROUGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG
SOUTH MERGING WITH A 549 DAM LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND.
THE WHOLE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE THE MARCH EAST TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE ALCAN BORDER
BY FRIDAY MORNING. RIDGING SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY WILL
BE PUSHED OUT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE AREA. A 534 DAM LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE...RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA AND CHUKCHI SEA WITH RIDGING BUILDING EAST OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST. THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS
AND SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN BE
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST AND TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY...RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG...AND WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS FRONT HANGS OVER THE AREA.
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL REACH NORTHWEST COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND
PUSH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH SO THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE IN AND NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY...BUT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY AS A HIGH OVER
THE ARCTIC BRINGS SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WEST OF DEADHORSE. 

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY BUT TURN NORTHERLY BY LATE TODAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM
THE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS AROUND NORTON SOUND.
THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE END OF IT THOUGH AS THE CHANGE IN WINDS
WILL JUST PUSH THE STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTON SOUND COAST
AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. WEST WINDS
BECOMING NORTH...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. INLAND AREAS WARMER TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID
60S FOR THE MOST PART. COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTH AND DRAGS SOME COOLER ARCTIC AIR WITH IT. 

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLEARING TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS OVER AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE CREST OF THE BROOKS
RANGE TODAY. WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
THEN COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ALMOST 15
DEGREES COOLER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN
THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY...THEN AS FRONT MOVES TO THE INTERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE ALCAN AND
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY. 

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PRETTY QUIET AT THE MOMENT...BUT THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY COULD BRING A FEW FIRES BACK TO LIFE. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF
THE YUKON RIVER. COOLER WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RISING
STARTING WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY COULD
LEAD TO SOME NEW STARTS. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOME SLIGHT RISES ON THE GAUGES ON THE ARCTIC
RIVERS...BUT NOT MUCH AND DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO RISE MUCH MORE IF
ANY. NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED IN ANY DRAINAGES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SATELLITE...STRATUS VISIBLE ON THE SPORT MODIS RGB PRODUCTS AT
04/0707Z ON THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE ARCTIC NORTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE AND IN THE UPPER KOBUK. SPOTTED A INTERESTING FEATURE ON THE
NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT BAND PRODUCT AT 04/0029Z JUST NORTHEAST OF ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND THERE IS A LOW LEVEL VORTEX IN THE STRATUS LEAVING
A LITTLE CLEAR HOLE. 

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

SDB AUG 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 031018
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
218 AM AKDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 60 HOURS BEFORE MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR. GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ON THE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH
OF THE BROOKS RANGE TO AROUND 577 DAM. FAST TRACKING ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE ARCTIC HAS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE THE CORRECT
TIMING FOR THEM SO WILL USE THE NAM AND SREF PRIMARILY FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND THE GFS FOR AMOUNTS.

ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC THAT
HAS A 526 DAM LOW 200NM NORTHWEST OF BANKS ISLAND CANADA AND A
542 DAM LOW 200 NM NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND. THE ZONAL FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WHEN A TROUGH STARTS DIGGING SOUTH
OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY TO THE CENTRAL
BROOKS RANGE WITH A 555 DAM LOW OVER ANAKTUVUK PASS WITH THE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO A 552 DAM LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND. RIDGING SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AS THE 579 DAM HIGH OVER ST MICHAEL MOVES EAST OVER
ANVIK THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVER LAKE MINCHUMINA BY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO A 577 DAM HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA AND AT 574 DAM HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES.

SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND A 1006 MB LOW 300 NM
NORTH OF DEADHORSE OVER THE ARCTIC TODAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING EAST FROM A 1028 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA TO A 1021 MB HIGH OVER DELTA JUNCTION THIS MORNING. THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY. A FRONT WILL LIE WEST TO EAST OVER THE
ARCTIC WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
RAIN TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING WILL
BUILD NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY THEN EAST OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF
FOG...AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL AREAS
TODAY WITH IT LETTING UP A BIT TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WEATHER FRONT LIES WEST TO EAST OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS IN THE BROOKS RANGE. ANOTHER SHOT
OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC INCLUDING THE BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH A
BIT THE WINDS OVER THE COAST AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY. 

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ONSHORE FLOW IN THE COASTAL
AREAS WILL BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...AND SOME
DRIZZLE AT TIMES...TO THE BERING STRAIT AND AREAS SOUTH. INLAND
AREAS AND AREAS NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT WILL BE CLEARING TO
PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS GENERALLY WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LIGHT
WINDS INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MOST AREAS IN THE 70S TODAY WITH
QUITE A FEW AREAS REACHING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTED THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE AND IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN THE INTERIOR WILL BE MUCH
DRIER AND WARMER...SO THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
FIRES TO MAKE A COMEBACK. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MID WEEK THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME NEW STARTS IN THE
INTERIOR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOME GOOD RAINS EXPECTED OVER THE ARCTIC...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY PROBLEMS IN ANY OF THE DRAINAGES.

&&

.SATELLITE...NOT ABLE TO SEE MUCH OVER THE ARCTIC ON THE SPORT
MODIS RGB PRODUCTS AT 03/0802Z AS HIGH CLOUDS MASK THE AREA...BUT
THE GOES MVFR/IFR SHOWING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MOST OF THE
COASTAL AREAS. SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME AND 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS RGB
PRODUCTS AT 03/0802Z SHOWING LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA AND SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND OVER
NORTON SOUTH AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA. SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR
MICROPHYSICS SHOWS LARGE AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE INTERIOR
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE ALASKA
RANGE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB AUG 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK68 PAFC 031406
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
506 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

.ANALYSIS...
THE UPPER LEVELS HAVE A WEAK NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH OVER THE
BRISTOL BAY INTERIOR EXTENDING ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE INTO
THE BARREN ISLANDS REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL AFFECT
ANCHORAGE BY TONIGHT AS THE WEAK RIDGE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL MOVES TO
THE NORTH. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THIS FEATURE WITH A
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTLINE WITH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE MODIS
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY IS SHOWING AREAS OF FOG ACCOMPANIED
BY LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE UPPER COOK INLET ALONG THE TURNAGAIN
ARM...THE LOWER SUSITNA VALLEY...THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THE
INTERIOR OF THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA THIS MORNING. WHILE THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OFFSHORE FLOW
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA HAS A RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND EXTENDING THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. FARTHER UPSTREAM IS A BROAD CLOSED LOW NEAR ADAK WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD NEAR 40N. ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM AT 300 MB THERE IS A STRONG 185 KNOT NORTHWESTERLY JET
STREAM DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. REFLECTED AT
THE SURFACE IS AN OCCLUDED 965 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF SHEMYA WITH
THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL BERING
SEA BEFORE EXTENDING THROUGH DUTCH HARBOR. THIS IS BRINGING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO THE CHAIN AND THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SHOWERY REGIME
BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REFLECTED
AT THE SURFACE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW
LOCATED SOUTH OF SHEMYA IN THE EARLY PERIOD...BUT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE MODELS TRANSITION THIS LOW INTO A COMPLEX LOW WITH
MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS JUST SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH PLACEMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW BECOMES A
BROAD COMPLEX LOW BY END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
ALL GUIDANCE IS QUICKLY TRENDING TOWARD A MINOR SNOWFALL OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A DEEP LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC EXTENDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD SPREADING MOISTURE NORTH AND WEST TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH BRISTOL BAY
AND BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS IT HITS THE OPPOSING FLOW OVER
THE GULF. THIS TROUGH WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE IN PLACE
AS WELL AS DEEP LAYER WEAK INSTABILITY (AS SEEN IN THE ANCHORAGE
SOUNDING) TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...IT DOES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
MESOSCALE BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW TO BRIEFLY SET UP SOMEWHERE OVER
THE WESTERN KENAI TO ANCHORAGE AREA. THUS THERE LIKELY WILL BE
SOME AREAS WHICH SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND DRIFT
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS LOW. ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
MOST PLACES...IT IS WARM ENOUGH IN THE CORDOVA AREA TO PRODUCE ALL
RAIN. ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER UPPER WAVE WILL FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL BRING
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF KING SALMON
TODAY. THAT WILL BE THE ONLY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. LOW STRATUS HAS FILTERED INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
AND DELTA WITHIN THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
HANG AROUND AS THE WEAK OUTFLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. 

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL SOUTH OF THE CHAIN TODAY AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH IT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE IN THESE PLACES...BEST CHANCES OVER SAINT GEORGE
ISLAND. ARCTIC AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL BERING WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS...WEAK FLOW AND NO MAJOR
FRONTS...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE JET STAYS
WELL SOUTH OF THE CHAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK IS CHARACTERIZED BY
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE GREATLY
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DOMINANT LOW CENTER WITHIN THE BROADER COMPLEX
LOW...HOWEVER 00Z GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE BY UPWARDS OF 400 MILES...MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT TO
NARROW DOWN ANY SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS. THERE IS ALSO GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A DEEP LOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST...BUT THIS
SYSTEM IS ALSO POORLY HANDLED BY THE MODELS AT THIS TIME.

THIS PATTERN IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO YIELD BENIGN CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF 50N AND
KEEPS THE STORM TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEREFORE REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
GULF COAST...WITH INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL STAYING MOSTLY DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. OUT WEST...THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COMPLEX LOW...WITH A MORE SHOWERY REGIME
OVER THE REST OF THE BERING BENEATH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE 
MARINE...GALE WARNING 178
		 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180 181

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PLD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...CB


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 130232
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
932 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

.UPDATE...STILL EXPECT UPSTREAM SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL MN TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ALONG INSTABILITY
GRADIENT DRAPED ACROSS SE MN/ERN IA/WRN WI. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER WRN MN AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM LEFT
EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET SHOULD CARRY CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
SRN WI LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THINKING HRRR AND NAMNEST HAVE
BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTION AS NAM HAD GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE
INTIATION LOCATION WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN LATE IN THE AFTN. WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM TOO FAR
NORTH WITH ON-GOING CONVECTION AND LIKELY TO BE TOO SLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON PERIOD FROM 09Z THROUGH 13Z. NOT RULING OUT
ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF MAIN LINE DUE TO
INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...INCREASING LOW LEVEL AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE LIKELY TO CAUSE AREAS OF STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN
WRN CWA. CIG HEIGHTS FLIRTING WITH 3K FEET SO WL LIKELY HAVE TO
HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS PRIOR TO UPSTREAM CONVECTION AFFECTING TAF
SITES...ESTIMATED MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST MODIS ESTIMATE OF LAKE SURFACE TEMP MEASURED
TEMPS IN THE 63 TO 66 RANGE OFFSHORE. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...EXPECTED PATCHY
FOG TO TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD FOG LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY.
EXPECTED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT LIKELY TO REDUCE THE FOG
FOR A TIME BUT MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015/ 

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ND/ WESTERN MN 
WILL EXPAND INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND EVENTUALLY CROSS SOUTHERN 
WI...PROBABLY BETWEEN 4 AM AND 8 AM. THERE IS STILL SOME MINOR MODEL 
VARIABILITY MEANING THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE THE 
STRONGEST STORMS WILL TRACK. SPC IS FAVORING THE TRACK WHERE THE 
STORMS DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND SOUTHWEST WI... 
CLOSEST TO THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THIS IS A MORE COMMON 
OCCURRENCE WITH STORMS. THE OTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE BULK OF 
THE STORMS COULD TRACK DUE EAST WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MID 
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND CROSS CENTRAL WI.

BOTH SCENARIOS IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI WITH 
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... SO INCREASED THE POPS 
AND KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND. 
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE OVER 4000 J/KG WITH MODERATE BULK SHEAR TO 
SUPPORT A PERSISTENT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. 

MANY OF THE MODELS DELAY THE SYSTEM REACHING SOUTHERN WI UNTIL 09Z 
OR LATER. THEY ARE ALSO SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE 
MAIN STORM COMPLEX DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. KEPT CHANCE 
OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE FOR THE FORECAST. THERE 
IS A HAIL THREAT FOR ANY ORGANIZED STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MONDAY AFTERNOON... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WE ARE KEEPING OUR EYES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY 
AFTERNOON IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE 
SHOWING HIGH CAPE WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY. IF 
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP... STORMS SHOULD BE SUPERCELLULAR AND QUICKLY 
EVOLVE INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS DEVELOP 
THE STORMS IN CENTRAL WI BUT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT IN 
SOUTHEAST WI.
 
SPC UPGRADED THE SOUTH HALF OF THE MKX AREA TO AN ENHANCED RISK FOR 
THIS EVENT. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THE 
CONVECTION EVOLVES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHEAST
EARLY DURING THE EVENING. MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE GFS WILL STILL
BE AROUND 2200 JOULES/KG WITH ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS.
THE NAM DIMINISHES THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOONER...BEING MAINLY
SOUTH OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MONDAY EVENING. 

THE MID LEVELS DRY BY MID EVENING AS LOW AND MID LEVELS WINDS
BECOME WEST. 

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AFTER A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH
A WEAKENING 85 KNOT 250 MB JET ACROSS ILLINOIS THAT SAGS A BIT
SOUTH.

THE GFS SHARPENS THE 700 MB MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AFTER IT EXITS THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE 700 MB RH DRIES TUESDAY BUT
850 MB LEVELS REMAIN MOIST WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 16 CELSIUS
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.  

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH EAST SECTIONS AND SPREAD INLAND
DUE TO THE COOLER AIR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. 

AFTERNOON CAPES RANGE FROM 1200 NORTHEAST TO 2000 JOULES/KG.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...AND THERE IS ONLY A MINIMAL
CAP. THE GFS NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. A STRONG TRIGGER IS LACKING...BUT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY. 

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE 700 MB FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT AS THE 850 MB
RIDGE MOVES TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW BEGINS
TOWARD EVENING. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVE TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...AND EVEN SOME MID 40S NORTH AREAS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE DURING THE AFTERNOON...OVER INLAND AREAS.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WITH ONE OR TWO
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN AS A STRONG TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. 

AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RECEDES TO
THE EAST...A RETURN FLOW RESULTS IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PUSH A MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE QUICKER WITH A
STRONGER DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE LINGERING NORTH OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.

A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE 00Z ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE GFS HAS MORE
OF A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS KEEPING CLOUD BASES IN THE MVFR RANGE 
FROM 2 TO 3 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. I AM EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY 
CLEAR SKIES IN SOUTHERN WI AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL STORMS ARRIVE AFTER ABOUT 08 OR 09Z 
MONDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING A LINE OF STRONG STORMS TO TRACK OUT OF MN 
AND HEAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS 
MAINLY A STRAIGHT-LINE WIND EVENT AND WE COULD SEE DAMAGING WIND 
WITH THE LINE. ANY OF THE HEAVIER STORMS WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR 
CONDITIONS AT LEAST FOR A TIME.  THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STORMS 
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY OUR ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER DURING THE DAY 
MONDAY... ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY 
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THESE COULD BE SEVERE.

MARINE...

AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS... 
APPARENT ON WEBCAMS AND SOMEWHAT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
VISIBILITY WILL BE 1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 122130
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
130 PM AKDT SUN JUL 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT AT 500 MB...THE 547 DAM LOW LOCATED OVER 75N AND 147W WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND DEVELOP A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
TO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOPING INTO A 548 DAM
LOW BY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS WITH THE ECMWF TRYING TO FORM AN UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF
BARTER ISLAND ALONG THE BEAUFORT COAST WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING SEEMS TO BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE AS
THE GFS DOES DEVELOP A LOW BUT ROUGHLY 12 HOURS LATER. IN EITHER
CASE THIS WILL BRING SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MARINE
AND OFF SHORES MARINE ZONES ON WEDNESDAY ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST.
FOR THE INTERIOR...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FROM A COUPLE EASTERLY
WAVES WHICH IS BASICALLY ROTATING ENERGY AROUND A DOUBLE BARREL
LOW THAT DEVELOPS BY MONDAY MORNING WITH ONE LOW SOUTH OF PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. WE ALREADY HAVE ONE
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY AS
THE WEAK RIDGE GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD. THE STRONGEST EASTERLY WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY WHERE WE SHOULD
SEE SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND INCREASED CHANCE OF
WETTING RAIN FOR FIRE SITUATIONS.

AT THE SURFACE...THE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR EXTENDING FROM EAGLE TO GALENA WITH THE SURFACE LOW 0F
998 MB LOCATED OVER THE TANANA BASIN THIS EVENING. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES 1002MB OVER FORTY MILE COUNTY BY MID MORNING. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY MORNING EXTENDING FROM
A LINE FROM CHALKYITSIK TOWARD HUSLIA AND THEN DEVELOP INTO A 999
MB LOW AROUND BETTLES. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHES
AS A 1001 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ARCTIC EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW WITH STRATUS AND DENSE FOG
REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HAVE PLACED DENSE FOG HEADLINES FOR AREAS
FROM BARROW EASTWARD ALONG THE BEAUFORT COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE
AREAS OF DRIZZLE THAT CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE. BY MONDAY THE WINDS WILL START TO SEE WIND SHIFT
ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM EASTERLY TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST
AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE BROAD AREA LOW NEAR BETTLES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE
BRINGING INCREASES PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO THE AREA LATER IN
WEEK.

WESTERN COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MISSING THE SATELLITE VIIRS
IMAGERY...BUT STILL ABLE TO UTILIZE THE 24HR MICROPHYSICS RGB
PRODUCT FROM MODIS IN THE LATE MORNING WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE
STRATUS CLOUDS THAT MOVED ALONG THE KOTZEBUE AREA. HOWEVER
AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE WITH GREATEST CHANCES
EXTENDING FROM ANVIK TO RUBY. DENSE SMOKE LINGERED ACROSS SMILIER
AREA AROUND RUBY THROUGH NOON TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE SMOKE HAS
FINALLY STARTED TO INCREASE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 2 MILES IN
MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO MIXING THROUGH THE DAY AND ADDED SHOWERS
WILL HELP...RUBY STILL REMAINS AT HALF MILE AS OF 1 PM. THUS HAVE
EXTENDED THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY
POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PEDRO DOME RADAR WITH LIGHTING
STRIKES WITH THE STORM JUST SOUTHEAST OF STEVENS VILLAGE AND SOME
WITH THE STORMS LOCATED BETWEEN MCGRATH AND GALENA. EXPECTED
COVERAGE TO EXPAND FROM ALASKA RANGE TO FAIRBANKS TO FORTY MILE
COUNTRY TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DEVELOP JUST NORTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS ON THE RADAR. THE
STORM LOCATED NEAR THE AGGIE WILDFIRE HAD SOME RAIN AND SMALL HAIL
WITH THE STORM CELL. WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE INCREASE
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM MCGRATH TO NORTHEAST OF CIRCLE
WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER INCH WITH HALF AN INCH
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE
EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE NAM MODEL SUGGEST HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH
UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE BUT OTHER MODELS ARE LESS. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS...EXPECT GENERAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES...WITHIN AREA FROM LAKE MINCHUMINA TO
CIRCLE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY AND
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AND CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN. THE THERMAL TROUGH
NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY. A STRONGER EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINING DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
WETTING RAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE
MODELS THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES
EXTENDING ACROSS AN AREA FROM LAKE MINCHUMINA TO CIRCLE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER POCKET AMOUNTS WITH STRONGER STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DO NOT EXPECT ANY RISE IN THE RIVERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER MAY SEE A SLIGHT RISE IN THE CREEKS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
EASTERLY WAVE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODELS GENERALLY EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY
HEAVIER POCKETS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS WERE
HINTING THAT THIS WOULD FALL IN THE UPPER PORTIONS KUSKOKWIM RIVER
BASINS AS WELL AS THE CHATANIKA...CHENA..AND SALCHA RIVER BASINS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ216-AKZ221-AKZ227.
&&

$$

MAK JUL 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 071055
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
255 AM AKDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZATION WELL VS 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE
CHANGED A BIT ON THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND NORTH OVER THE AREA TODAY. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IN ALL THE MODELS IS NOW OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE WITH MORE OF A SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. WILL USE THE NAM AS THE BASE FOR PRECIPITATION FORECAST
WITH A NUDGE TO THE SREF TO GET PROBABILITIES UP A BIT.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE LIES FROM HIGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
OVER SITKA TO BURWASH LANDING YUKON TO FORT YUKON TO BARROW AND
NORTH THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BUILD A LITTLE BACK TO THE WEST AND LIE FROM
YAKUTAT TO WAINWRIGHT BY LATE EVENING...THEN FROM CORDOVA TO
WAINWRIGHT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE COL WILL COVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THURSDAY. A 530 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL
REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
HAS MOVED OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE BROOKS RANGE
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A 532 DAM LOW JUST SOUTH OF
BANKS ISLAND CANADA SWINGS A SHORTWAVE SOUTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE.
AT 850 HPA...COOLING HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE STATE AND TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WET COAST WILL FALL AROUND 5 CELSIUS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE ON THE NORTH SLOPE TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL UP TO 10 CELSIUS.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH LIES NORTHWAY TO FAIRBANKS TO HUSLIA TO
TELLER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SHOVED NORTH TODAY BY THE WEATHER
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT LIES
FROM ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO UNALAKLEET TO MCGRATH TO ANCHORAGE THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIE FROM KOTZEBUE SOUND TO ALLAKAKET TO EAGLE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTH
SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING. FROM MANLEY HOT
SPRINGS WEST STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS ALONG THE BROOKS
RANGE SEEING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH NEAR AN INCH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FROM MANLEY WEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERY
WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AREAS
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE EAST OF THE PARK AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DELTA JUNCTION TO CHICKEN WILL BE MOSTLY SHADOWED OUT. SOME GAP
FLOW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SETTLING DOWN.

SATELLITE...SPORT MICROPHYSICS MODIS AT 06/821Z HAS SOME STRATUS
OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE...WHICH MAY BE SMOKE...AND THE LOWER
YUKON DELTA. THE GOES MVFR/IFR PRODUCTS CONFIRM THE STRATUS OVER
THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...BUT NOT INDICATING THE STRATUS OVER THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. MODIS TRUE COLOR FROM MONDAY SHOWS A LARGE
AREA OF SMOKE COVERING MOST OF NORTHWEST ALASKA...THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE ARCTIC...MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...AND
AREAS NORTHEAST OF DELTA JUNCTION IN THE INTERIOR. 

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...COOLING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE STRATUS AND FOG TO
MOST COASTAL AREAS. WINDS EAST OF WAINWRIGHT ON THE COAST
INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE
EAST. WINDS FROM POINT LAY SOUTH EAST THIS MORNING...THEN
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THEM.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ALONG THE COAST A RECURRING
THEME SETTING UP AS LOW OVER THE BERING SEA REMAINS QUASI
STATIONARY AND WAVE SPIN AROUND THE LOW AND OVER THE COAST. BANDS
OF RAIN WILL PROVIDE SOME WETTING RAINS OVER MOST OF THE COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAINS IN ZONES 208 AND 217 BUT
NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY FLOODING ISSUES. ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. 

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF
TANANA...RAIN FROM TANANA WEST...WITH SOME SHADOWING NEAR THE
ALASKA RANGE SOUTH OF DELTA JUNCTION. SOME GAP WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL TAPER DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT TODAY WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. SMOKE MOVING AROUND WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...NO CHANGE FROM WHAT IT WAS LOOKING
LIKE YESTERDAY...A RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR WITH THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. WEAK INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME WEAK COOLING ALOFT...THE
COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO A MORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEWPOINTS ON THE RISE TODAY IN THE INTERIOR AND
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE UP ABOVE 30 PERCENT. WINDS NEAR ALASKA
RANGE PASSES WILL TAPER DOWN TO LESS THAN 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THE ARCTIC SLOPE
THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL LET FIRE FOLKS KNOW ABOUT THAT THIS
MORNING. DEWPOINTS START FALLING TONIGHT BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 SO NOT MUCH POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...BIG CHANGE IN MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY IS NOW PLACING
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ALMOST AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED. DO NOT EXPECT A RESPONSE IN MOST RIVER AND
STREAMS...BUT SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS COULD BECOME BANKFULL
FOR A SHORT TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ221-
AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB JUL 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 061546
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1046 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LEAD ELONGATED BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE EASTERN CWA BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE
BEEN BEHAVING AND EXPECT THEM TO STAY THAT WAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM SO PROJECTED INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR ANY LATER DAY/EVENING PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES POOR AS WELL. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL
RH GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH
A TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS CIG HGT/SREF CIG PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING
HOLD WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY.

PC

&&

.MARINE...WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE.  
THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO TURN 
MORE MIXY REST OF THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN.  HOWEVER UPSTREAM 
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST WI MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT NEARSHORE 
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT 
AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SRN WI.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED 
LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE UPPER 50S.  WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 
60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO 
TONIGHT.  WL BE WATCHING SHORE WEBCAMS CLOSELY IN CASE FOG THICKENS. 
MAY NEED TO ISSUE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY AS WOULD EXPECT FOG TO 
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WHEN SHOWERS AND STORMS CLEANSE 
FOG FOR A TIME. 

MBK

&&

.BEACHES...WL CONTINUE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR OZAUKEE AND 
SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES THIS AFTN AND EVE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT 
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN 
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH A FEW GUSTS UP 
TO 25 MPH.  CURRENTLY THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD OVER SOUTHEAST WI 
SLOWING DOWN MIXING BUT SOME THINNING EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTN.  
HOWEVER BEACHGOERS WL NEED TO KEEP EYE ON RADAR AS THUNDERSTORMS 
OVER SOUTHWEST WI...MAY AFFECT LAKE MI SHORE DURING THE AFTN.  THERE 
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STORMS DURING THE EVE. 

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/ 

UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/ 

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT 
LAKES.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING 
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO 
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN 
TODAY.  AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND 
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. 

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN 
TOWARD EVENING.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS 
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN 
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO 
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERN 
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO 
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING. 

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER 
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB 
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6 
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY 
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY 
EVENING. 

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE 
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON.  ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE 
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL 
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD 
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT 
IN THE SOUTHEAST.  

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES.  THEREFORE THE 
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.  
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE 
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH. 

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE 
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA. 
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST 
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL 
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST. 

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY. 

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS 
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS 
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN 
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT 
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE 
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST 
TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR 
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR 
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.  

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL 
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING 
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND 
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT 
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. 

BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO 
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
     060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ 
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 061049
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
249 AM AKDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
THEY CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. RUN TO
RUN THEY HAVE SHOWN GREAT CONSISTENCY THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. MODELS
SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
MUCH BETTER TODAY...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NAM IS DOING A
BETTER JOB HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION AND THE RAIN SHADOWING IN
THE EASTERN INTERIOR BETTER. WILL LEAN ON THE NAM FOR AREAS EAST
OF TANANA...WITH A BLEND OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR. 

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
HALF OF THE STATE WITH THE AXIS LYING OVER CORDOVA TO BARROW THIS
MORNING WITH 576 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL ROTATE TO
THE EAST WITH THE AXIS MOVING TO LIE FROM THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE
ISLANDS TO DAWSON AND OVER DEADHORSE AND 570 DAM HEIGHTS
RETREATING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS. TWO 540 DAM LOWS OVER THE
BERING SEA WILL MERGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS
MORNING AND A SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO
LIE FROM THE LOW 533 DAM LOW SOUTHEAST OVER DUTCH HARBOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE TO LIE FROM THE LOW OVER
BRISTOL BAY AND SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN FROM THE LOW NOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA OVER
CAPE ROMANZOF AND EAST OVER THE COOPER RIVER BASIN TUESDAY
MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW TO
LIE OVER THE BERING STRAIT TO AMBLER BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST AND A 570 DAM HIGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC AND BUILD SOUTH OVER THE ARCTIC.
A 544 DAM LOW IN THE HIGH CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY LATE MONDAY EVENING...THEN OVER BANKS
ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING TO THE WEST
APPROACHES THE ARCTIC COAST...AND MOVES OVER THE COAST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE DRAGGING TO
THE EAST. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES PEAK LATE THIS EVENING OVER
THE INTERIOR AT AROUND 18 CELSIUS AND OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AT
AROUND 14 CELSIUS...THEN TREND DOWN TO AROUND 8 CELSIUS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AND AROUND 2 CELSIUS OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH LIES FROM GALENA TO EAGLE THIS MORNING
AND WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE YUKON FLATS BY TUESDAY MORNING. A
BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AROUND A
982 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ARCTIC WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. A DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING AND PUSH SOUTH TO THE UPPER
YUKON FLATS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS MORNING WILL LIE FROM ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
TO BETHEL TO COLD BAY MOVING TO LIE FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO
KALTAG TO SEWARD THIS EVENING...AND FROM POINT HOPE TO FAIRBANKS
TO CHISANA BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN FROM POINT LAY TO OLD CROW
YUKON AS THE FRONTS MERGE.

SATELLITE...SPORT MICROPHYSICS MODIS AT 06/0738Z HAS SOME STRATUS
IN THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA THAT IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST. ALSO SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS FLOATING AROUND IN THE
CHUKCHI SEA. DO NOT SEE THEM IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL FORECAST
AREAS...BUT WILL ADD IT INTO THE PUBLIC FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SUMMER WILL CONTINUE ON THE ARCTIC
COAST TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM...BUT THAT WILL
CHANGE PRETTY DRASTICALLY BY MID WEEK AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE. HIGHS
IN THE 60S ON THE COAST AND HIGHS ON THE ARCTIC PLAIN REACHING
THE 80S. MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN TODAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5
TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FRONT SPREADING RAIN OR SHOWERS
TO MOST AREAS SOUTH OF KOTZEBUE SOUND TODAY AND OVER THE WHOLE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. COASTAL WINDS WILL 10 TO 20 MPH FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH 15 TO 30 MPH WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND ON ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND. INLAND WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT. SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS...WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
PULLING SMOKE OUT OF THE INTERIOR TO COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...VERY WARM AND DRY WITH WINDS
INCREASING NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES. RED FLAGS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY AND THEY LOOK GOOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S FOR MOST AREAS. AREAS WITH HEAVIER SMOKE CONDITIONS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREE COOLER. NO SHOWERS TODAY WITH A GOOD CAP
STILL PRESENT AND PRETTY BENIGN CONVECTIVE INDICES. GUSTY WINDS
PICKING UP IN THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE ALREADY THIS MORNING AND
THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND SPREAD TO THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE AND THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PEAK
GUSTS STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 45 MPH. THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BUT EXPECT IT WILL SKIP OVER THE AREA
FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH AND REFORM NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. STILL SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE WEST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. WEAK INFLUX
OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME WEAK COOLING ALOFT...THE
COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO A MORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR. 

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARMER AND DRIER TODAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE IN ZONES
223...225 AND 226 AS WINDS GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH NEAR PASSES. A
LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL
SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE WEATHER FRONT MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY WITH THE FRONT OUT WEST
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE THERMAL TROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGHEST PRECIPITATION VALUES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
ARE IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM DRAINAGES AND ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA.
AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL IN THOSE AREAS...BUT RIVERS AND
STREAMS IN THOSE AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH RESPONSE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230.
&&

$$

SDB JUL 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KLOT 060809
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
309 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...
303 AM CDT

THROUGH TUESDAY...

NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY..THEN ON CONVECTIVE 
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING IN OUR 
NECK OF THE WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING HIGHER TONIGHT GIVEN A 
LIGHT SSE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. 
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE EXCEPT LOCALLY WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE OR IN
RIVER VALLEYS. ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH SOUTH AND EASTWARD...WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DEBRIS SHIELD HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD. 925 MB THERMAL
RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING TO AT
LEAST 925 MB AND LIKELY HIGHER TO 850 WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 25/19C RESPECTIVELY WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 90. QUESTION
HOLDS AS TO ANY LINGERING SMOKE...WHICH PER MODIS IMAGERY IS
LARGELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE AREA...AND ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM
CONVECTION TO THE WEST PLAYS OUT. HAVE LARGELY HELD ONTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER GIVEN THESE
UNCERTAINTIES AND THINK THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE MORE EXTENSIVE TO
SUGGEST THE HIGHER TEMPS WOULD BE HARDER TO REACH...WHICH COULD
EVEN SUGGEST SOME COOLER TEMPS IN OUR NORTH/WEST. STILL...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO OR INTO THE 90S IN MANY AREAS WITH
THE INCREASED HUMIDITY.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR JUST YET AS TO HOW THINGS PLAY 
OUT THROUGH TONIGHT BUT ARE COMING INTO BETTER GENERAL AGREEMENT
IN FRONTAL TIMING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AREA
TONIGHT. GFS/ECMWF/SREF STILL SUGGEST FRONT CLEARS THE CHICAGO
AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WHILE WRF-NAM AND NAM 4KM SUGGEST IT
WILL STILL BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THIS TIME. THERE ARE
SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MAY SLOW TINGS A TOUCH
AS THE UPPER JET DOES REMAIN FOCUSED TO THE NORTH...A SURFACE LOW
DOES LOOK TO TRACK ALONG FRONT FROM THE PLAINS AND NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR
TIMING...WHICH IS NOT A GREAT DIURNAL TIME TO MOVE THROUGH...AND
THERE IS NOTHING IN THE RAP RUNS TO SUPPORT THE WRF-NAM MODEL
SLOWER LOW PROGRESSION AND THEREFORE HOLD WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
FOR FRONTAL TIMING.

THEREFORE CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING 
DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT 
EAST AND RIDE ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCESS NORTHEASTWARD. 
SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT 
AS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO 
PROGRESS ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE THAT SOME 
CONVECTION MAY CLIP FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING 
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND 
SEVERAL HOPWRF-ARW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SEVERAL MEMBERS DO SUGGEST A 
WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTION WHICH WOULD 
KEEP A QUIET MORNING PERIOD...AND THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE 
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTED AT THE MOMENT 
WILL FOCUS NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 
THEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MOISTENING WOULD SUPPORT SOME 
REGENERATION IN WESTERN ILLINOIS AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN 
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY ANY OUTFLOW FROM 
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DEWPOINT POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL 
ALLOW PW VALUES TO NEAR 2 INCHES...MEANING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS 
WOULD BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD. 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES STILL 
SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AS WELL...WHICH IF THE STORMS
FORM INTO A LINE COULD ALSO POSE A WIND/MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS
WELL. CURRENT SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK AREAS FROM SPC HAVE CHANGED
VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPPING
INTO BETTER INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING IN NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND POINTS WEST.

THEN TONIGHT...STILL SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
OVERNIGHT THOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HOLD STRONG IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOWER 70S AND MAINTAIN SOME LEVEL OF 
INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE BETTER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE 
AREA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TIED TO THE COLD 
FRONT...AND NUMEROUS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF THE ACTIVITY 
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND 
NORTHWEST INDIANA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE COLD FRONTS SOUTH AND 
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER 
ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE DAY TUESDAY. 
WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE AND ONSHORE...USHERING A MUCH COOLER AND 
DRIER AIRMASS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE FRONT WILL BE 
ON THE EDGE OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MEANING A CHANCE FOR 
PRECIP LINGERS FOR SOUTH AND EAST AREAS AS THINGS FIRE UP AGAIN 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINGS COULD LARGELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 
THAT TIME. 

KMD

&&

.LONG TERM...
303 AM CDT

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF RESPITE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT GETS 
SHIFTED BACK NORTHWARD AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS 
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEEKS END. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO THE 
ATLANTIC...WITH A TROUGH JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE HIGH IN 
THE EAST WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AND SHIFT INLAND TO THE WEST WHILE 
THE TROUGH IN THE WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ONSHORE INTO THE GREAT 
BASIN. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN A SOMEWHAT MOIST WSW FLOW WITH 
MULTIPLE WAVES PROPAGATING NE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN AND INTERSECTING 
WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS PATTERN SUGGEST 
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FUTURE FORECASTS 
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REFINE THE TIMING OF THESE CHANCES...WHICH 
CURRENTLY LOOK TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY PM...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO 
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE EAST AS THE 
HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WHICH SHOULD 
EVENTUALLY LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA AT SOME 
POINT BUT NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND. 

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH READINGS 
BACK INTO THE 70S...WITH LAKESHORE AREAS STUCK IN THE 60S/NEAR 70 
BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD AND THE FRONT GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD. 
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT CONTINUE TO RECOVER BACK WELL INTO THE 
80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

KMD

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER THIS EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH ANY PRECIP
ACTIVITY STAYING WELL WEST OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. PATCHY
FOG WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OBSERVING A STEADY INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE TERMINALS IS PRECIP TRENDS
AND TIMING. AM MONITORING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MINNESOTA
AND FAR WESTERN IOWA...WHICH COULD FIRST IMPACT RFD BY LATE
MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH RFD...BUT SHOULD ALSO OBSERVE A
WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES. BEST FOCUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD
FOR ALL TERMINALS WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE VARIES TO THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF ANY PRECIP AS WELL AS TIMING AND DURATION. BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS HAVE INCLUDED PRECIP IN THE TAFS WITH RFD HAVING THE BETTER
CHANCE TO OBSERVE IT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE
REMAINING TERMINALS NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER AT THIS TIME...AS SOME GUIDANCE IS BRINGING THIS PRECIP IN
EARLIER. OTHER CHALLENGES WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION LIKELY
BECOMING PROBLEMATIC.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING/TODAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION TODAY.

* LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER AND TIMING/DURATION
  LATER THIS EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY...CHC MORNING TSRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS...TRENDING
TOWARDS VFR CONDS BY AFTN. 

WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. 

BEACHLER

&&

.MARINE...
220 PM CDT

WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING THE LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE 
TAKING SHAPE IN THE HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LAKE. ON THESE WINDS WILL COME HIGHER DEW 
POINT AIR. WEBCAM IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE LAKE INDICATES HAZE THAT 
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE THICKER ALREADY OVER THE WATER. CONCERNS WITH 
DENSE FOG WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ON MONDAY WHEN 
DEW POINTS OF 10-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES 
MOVE OVER THE LAKE.

THE OFFSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
LOOK TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE 
AND IT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE 
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THIS SHIFT FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORE. AS FOR 
THE OPEN WATERS...THE STABILITY WILL KEEP GUSTS FAR BELOW WHAT THEY 
COULD BE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK /WITHIN
700 FT/ ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE ARE FORECAST TO BE
40-50 KT. WILL MENTION A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THAT WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE FROM THE AREA OF THE
NORTH BUOY TO THE U.P. SHORE.

THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE OVERNIGHT 
MONDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS ON TUESDAY...IF A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST...COULD BRING WAVES TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG MAINLY THE INDIANA SHORE.

MTF

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...NOON MONDAY TO 10 
     PM MONDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 051522
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE 
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
AS SOUTH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
LIKELIHOOD MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT.

PC

&&

.MARINE...SHORELINE WEB CAMS INDICATE LIGHT HAZE OVER THE NEARSHORE 
WATERS EXTENDING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE.  WINDS HAVE 
ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN ONSHORE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SFC 
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO EXPECTED SFC DEWPTS 
TODAY.  HENCE PULLED FOG MENTION BUT THINK AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE WILL 
CONTINUE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD 
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO AFFECT NEAR 
SHORE AREA ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKING LIKELY. 

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/ 

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL 
SOUTH.  LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION. 

VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS 
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL 
WISCONSIN. 
 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN 
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE.  THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE 
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.  
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED. 
 
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE 
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND 
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP 
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. 

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.

STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM 
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. 

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN 
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED. 

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE 
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.

MARINE...

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE 
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE 
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.  

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ 
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 050926
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
126 AM AKDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
THEY ARE CLUSTERED WELL IN THE FIRST 84 HOURS OF THE MODEL RUN.
SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES BEYOND THAT IN THE HANDLING OF A LOW OVER
THE BEAUFORT SEA AND WHETHER OR NOT RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THEY HANDLE THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST SIMILAR TODAY...BUT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY IS NOT GETTING THE SAME TREATMENT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME SHADOWING OUT OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NONE...SO WILL LEAN MORE ON THE WAY THE NAM IS
HANDLING IT FOR NOW.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH
A 577 DAM HIGH OVER WAINWRIGHT AND A 590 DAM HIGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL BUILD A BIT TO EXTEND WEST OVER THE MIDDLE
YUKON VALLEY TODAY AS THE 577 DAM CENTER MERGES INTO THE RIDGE.
THE RIDGE WILL SLIP A LITTLE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS 2 LOWS OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA MERGE INTO A 531 DAM LOW AND SPIN A
SHORTWAVE OVER BRISTOL BAY MONDAY EVENING...THEN FROM THE LOW TO
OVER CAPE ROMANZOF TO TALKEETNA TO NORTHWAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING...AND FROM THE LOW TO GAMBELL TO OLD CROW BY LATE
TUESDAY. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ANOTHER 3
TO 6 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS A BIT. ANOTHER SURGE IN WARM AIR WITH THE SHORTWAVE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL PUSH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ABOVE
15 DEGREES CELSIUS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LOWER YUKON DELTA
AND NORTON SOUND REGION WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 10
CELSIUS RANGE.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR FROM GALENA TO DAWSON
YUKON THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT A LITTLE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL YUKON
RIVER AND FLATS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SURGES
NORTHWEST OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON RIVER VALLEY. WEATHER FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE ALASKA
RANGE MONDAY EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO BE OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD
BACK OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME GAP
WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE THIS MORNING WILL LAY DOWN BY LATE
MORNING...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE
FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GAP WINDS TO
THE RANGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO REACH 50 MPH...AND THEY WILL
TAPER DOWN BY AROUND NOON ON TUESDAY TO GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.

SATELLITE...SPORT MICROPHYSICS MODIS AT 04/0655Z SHOWING THE
CLEARLY DEFINED CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE BERING
SEA BUTTING UP AGAINST THE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THAT PRETTY QUIET
ACROSS THE REGION WITH NO STRATUS OR FOG DETECTED NEAR ANY OF THE
COASTAL AREAS.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...VERY NICE DAY AHEAD ACROSS THE
ARCTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE NO STRATUS TO CAUSE ANY HAVOC IN THE AREA. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST DRIFTS OFF INTO CANADA
AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST...OFFSHORE IN MOST AREAS...FLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY. SOME
INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST ON TUESDAY AS A DECAYING
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY AND MONDAY IN THE 60S ON
THE COAST WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S TO MID 80S.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WARMER AND DRIER OVER THE MIDDLE
YUKON...KOBUK...AND NOATAK VALLEYS TODAY. WEATHER FRONT MOVES TO
THE SOUTHWEST COAST TONIGHT AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER
YUKON DELTA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND TO THE MIDDLE YUKON AND MOST
OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET SOME
EMBEDDED AS THERE ARE SOME NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES SHOWING UP IN
THE MIDDLE YUKON AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM AREAS. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THEN TURN TO
SOUTHWEST IN THE INTERIOR AREAS AND SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST.
COASTAL WINDS WILL KICK UP A BIT TO 10 TO 20 MPH FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH 15 TO 30 MPH WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND ON ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...VERY WARM AND DRY TODAY AND MONDAY.
NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A PRETTY GOOD CAP ALOFT AND OTHER
CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE. SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THE RANGE THIS MORNING WITH GAP WINDS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY AROUND THE THERMAL TROUGH...TO AROUND 25 MPH. MOST AREAS
WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WIND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON WHICH SIDE OF THE
THERMAL TROUGH YOU ARE ON...SO AROUND FAIRBANKS EXPECT SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY AND THE NORMAL LIGHT NORTHEAST DIURNAL WINDS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF GAP WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE ON
MONDAY NIGHT...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE STRONGER THAN 50
MPH RIGHT NOW...WILL HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT LOOK AT IT. TOUGH CALL ON
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA SINCE SOME
OF IT WILL BE SHADOWED OUT BY THE ALASKA RANGE...THEN REFORM TO
THE NORTH OF TOWN. IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE FLOW DIRECTION MORE
SOUTH...NOT MUCH FOR SHOWERS...MORE WEST THEN MUCH BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...LOW OVER THE BERING SEA IS
PERSISTENT AND RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...SO
LOOKING FOR MORE OF WHAT WE HAVE NOW...WHICH IS A FEW DAYS OF
WARM THEN A DAY OF SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE INDICES LOOK GOOD IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS OF MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT THIS IS QUITE
A WAS OUT IN THE FORECAST CYCLE TO MAKE THAT CALL.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED DRYING WITH THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF THE WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY. SOME
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 25 MPH INTO THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT FUELS REMAIN A BIT TOO WET FOR
SIGNIFICANT BURNING. THAT COULD CHANGE MONDAY...SO WILL BE TAKING
A HARD LOOK AT FUEL CONDITIONS LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE INTERIOR AFTER LAST
WEEKS RAINS WITH MOST OF THEM LEVELING BACK TO NORMAL FLOW BY
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

&&

$$

SDB JUL 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 041513
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN 
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY
MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT. MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS
THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL
POPS. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING AT SOME PATCHY
MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.

PC

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT WEST WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE THROUGH 18Z AND 
REMAIN MOSTLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10KTS THRU THE AFTN.  SMOKE FROM 
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND THE 
NEARSHORE WATERS...ADDING A MILKY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY.  RECENT 
MODIS IMAGERY CONTINUED TO MEASURE THE LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE MID TO 
UPPER 50S SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS 
OVER THE WATER DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVE. 

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/ 

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH A 
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 
WITH WEAK 250 MB FLOW. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. 

VERY WEAK 700 MB COOLING THIS MORNING...THEN WEAK WARMING BY 
TONIGHT. 700 MB DRYING BY AFTERNOON.  FAIRLY NEUTRAL 700 MB UPWARD 
MOTION. 850 MB DEW POINTS ARE AROUND 11 CELSIUS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS 
HAVE A FAIRLY MOIST LAYER AROUND 800 MB.  GFS FORECAST SOUNDING HAVE 
STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SURFACE TO 3 KM VALUES OF 8 
CELSIUS/KM AND AROUND 9.7 FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB.  HOWEVER THE 
MID LEVELS ARE FAIRLY STABLE WITH 3-6KM LAPSE RATES OF 5.9 
CELSIUS/KM...WITH A RATHER HIGH MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON FROM 700 TO 600 MB.  
 
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A LARGE HIGH ACROSS 
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY.  A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
/COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BUT THAT WEAKENS WITH 
MAINLY A WEAK WEST FLOW INLAND AREAS...WITH A LAKE BREEZE PUSHING 
INLAND DURING THE DAY EAST.  
 
SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE SLOWLY TODAY.  WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL 
LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE RISES TO 
AROUND 800 JOULES/KG.  THE MESO MODELS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED 
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR AND GFS KEYING MORE ON THE 
LAKE BREEZE FRONT. WILL KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS 
NORTHERN AREAS. 

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

EXPECT DRY WEATHER SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS LIKELY A COUPLE TO FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ASIDE FROM THE QUICKER GFS...MODELS HAVE SLOWED A BIT WITH THE TIMING
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
SHOULD BE A GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
THE GFS INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING. SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS THOUGH...SO KEPT
HIGHER POPS GOING

SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING. MODEL 925 MB
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SO WENT WITH MID TO EVEN
UPPER 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE BEYOND THAT...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRINGING A RETURN
OF MOISTURE AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS
GOING AT TIMES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. 

SOMEWHAT OF A SPREAD IN MODEL TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH THE
ECMWF MAINTAINING COOLER TEMPS ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING MONDAY
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS OF COOL DOWN AND RECOVERS TEMPS
FASTER. STUCK NEAR CONSENSUS OF MODEL TEMPS DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...RESULTING IN FORECAST TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF NORMAL VALUES.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

PATCHY IFR FOG MAINLY IN LOW AREAS ENDING BY 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR. 

LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS 
OVER THE REGION.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL 
WISCONSIN AND WEAKEN...SO POTENTIAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STRAY 
THUNDERSTORM SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES. 
EXPECT ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER TO CONTINUE FROM THE CANADIAN/ALASKAN 
WILDFIRES. 

MARINE...

EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS BY AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS 
RISE SLOWLY SO FOG POTENTIAL INCREASES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY 
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ 
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 031526
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1026 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...ELONGATED AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES
FROM CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EASTERN LAKES. WATER VAPOR/RAP VORT 
ANIMATION SHOWS CIRCULATION ACRS NRN/ERN IL SHIFTING EAST WITH
HIGH CLOUDS ON NRN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THE DECREASE ACRS SE
WI. EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION FROM NRN WI WITH NRN ENERGY/FRONT TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. VERY WEAK TROUGH
AND WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL NECESSITATE VRY SML POPS FOR SATURDAY.
NAM AND GFS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF CAPE THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN
MAY NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH GIVEN WEAK FLOW AROUND UPPER MIDWEST. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE 12Z GFS BACKS OFF ON THE MORE ROBUST
6Z SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY.

PC

&&

.MARINE...MODIS LAKE SFC TEMPERATURE IMAGER MEASURED TEMPERATURES IN 
THE MID TO UPPER 50S LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND MID-LAKE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 50. LAKE TEMPERATURE REMAINED IN THE COOLER 40S FARTHER
NORTH OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHIPPEWA BASIN.
WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SFC
DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE SFC TEMPS...NOT EXPECTING
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG TO FORM THIS AFTN AND EVE. LATEST LAKESHORE
WEBCAMS SHOW SOME LIGHT HAZE WHICH SHOULD THIN AS THE WINDS START
TO STIR A BIT. HENCE EVENING FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE OBSCURED.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/ 

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN IL THAT IS BRINGING THE HIGH CLOUDS TO 
SRN WI WILL MOVE EAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 00Z. MOST OF THE 
HIGH CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE 
TO BE SOME SMOKE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER 
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TNT WITH ITS 
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TNT AND REACH CENTRAL WI BY 12Z SAT. PWS WILL 
INCREASE TO 1 INCH LATE TNT AND THERE MAY BE SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS 
MOVING INTO THE NRN CWA VIA CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM NRN WI. 

FORECASTED 925 MB TEMPS TODAY IN THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS SUPPORTS 
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY MID 
TO LATE MORNING WITH HIGHS NEAR 70F AT THE LAKEFRONT. FOR TNT TEMPS 
WILL BE WARMER THANKS TO THE WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS BUT ALSO DUE TO 
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING SOUTH WITH A LGT WLY FLOW EXPECTED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THINK THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH. MOST OF THE LIFT SATURDAY SEEMS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WITH VERY LITTLE LARGE SCALE
LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. DEWPOINTS ARE PROBABLY A BIT TOO
HIGH ON THE GFS AND NAM...LIKELY RESULTING IN OVERDONE
INSTABILITY. MORE CONSERVATIVE MODELS STILL SHOWING SURFACE BASED
CAPE PEAKING AT AROUND 1000 J/KG...SO SOME CONVECTION IS NOT
UNREASONABLE. FORTUNATELY...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AND WILL BE DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING...SO HOPEFULLY
THIS WILL BE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON FIREWORK SHOWS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE INSTABILITY SUNDAY...BUT LESS OF A LIFTING
MECHANISM...SO KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING.

LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE TO FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND MOST PLACES...ASIDE FROM NEAR NORMAL TEMPS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2 INCHES. CAPE
VALUES NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ONLY
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE THREAT AT THIS
TIME. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SUMMER STORMS THOUGH...SO INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL MONDAY.

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND
THAT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. 

SOMEWHAT OF A SPREAD IN MODEL TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH THE
ECMWF MAINTAINING COOLER TEMPS ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING MONDAY
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS OF COOL DOWN AND RECOVERS TEMPS
FASTER. STUCK NEAR CONSENSUS OF MODEL TEMPS DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...RESULTING IN FORECAST TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF NORMAL VALUES.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... 

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TNT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SRN WI 
TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TNT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR 
FOG. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING 
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK68 PAFC 031259
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
459 AM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS POSITIONED EAST OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WITH HAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA REGION AND SPILLOVER INTO THE MATSU VALLEY REGION. THE
RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND APPROACHING THE MCGRATH AREA THIS
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION HAS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND A 70 KNOT ZONAL JET STREAK THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY
INTERIOR. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING LOW STRATUS SITTING
OFFSHORE IN THE KUSKOKWIM BAY AND STARTING TO GRADUALLY MOVE
ONSHORE. WHILE...THE ALASKA PENINSULA REGION THROUGH THE GULF HAS
A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH ANOTHER SMALL RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION AT THE SURFACE HAS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
AND THE CENTRAL GULF HAS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SPORT MODIS
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS PICKING UP THE AREAS
OF FOG OVER THE KENAI AREA AND THE MATSU VALLEY REGION. THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS NEAR ADAK HAS A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND A
SECONDARY LOW SOUTH OF THE DUTCH HARBOR REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
IS RESULTING IN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS THROUGH
THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS EXTENDING INTO THE BERING SEA. THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION WITH STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG STREAMING INTO
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
EXCEPT FOR THE ECWMF BRINGING THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW FARTHER EAST
ALONG THE CHAIN THAN THE GFS/NAM MODELS. THE PREFERRED MODEL OF
CHOICE WAS THE NAM FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION AND THE GFS
FOR THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA REGION. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THE TWO NORTH PACIFIC LOWS BEGIN TO MERGE TOGETHER OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE KODIAK
ISLAND REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUHTWEST AND THE
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA INTERIOR BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF AND
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTHERN GULF MARINE AREAS. THE TURNAGAIN ARM
AND PORTAGE/WHITTIER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE SATURDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE COASTAL MARINE AREAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND.
THE EASTERN GULF WILL HAVE THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO
DIFFERENT AREAS OF OFFSHORE STRATUS BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE
THIS MORNING. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING AREAS FOG IN
THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. BY SATURDAY A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WETTING RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
SUNDAY. THE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE ANY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION WILL HAVE ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THESE WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THESE WET
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND BECOME
SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WILL KEEP THE HUMIDITIES FAIRLY LOW BUT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE WEATHER FRONT BY SATURDAY THE HUMIDITIES WILL
RECOVER. THE MARINE COASTAL HUMIDITIES WILL SEE THE LARGEST
RECOVERIES. THE INLAND AREAS WILL HAVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES JUST
NOT AS MUCH DUE TO MOUNTAINS KEEPING MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE COAST. THE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MINOR SHORT WAVES WILL PROVIDE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE POSITIONING OF THE THERMAL TROUGH...DRAPED
ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY...COMBINED WITH
FORCING FROM UPPER SHORT WAVES AND MARGINAL STABILITY INDICES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND
MAINLY MOUNTAINS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
MORE STABLE OVERALL AS COOLER AIR AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER FRONT.

A WEATHER FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF WILL BRING RAIN TO
KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND KENAI PEN SATURDAY. MINIMUM EASTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED
WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE GULF.
BRISK GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM/PORTAGE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE COPPER RIVER AND KNIK
ARM. GAP FLOWS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY AS
THE COASTAL RIDGE BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WET AND WINDY PATTERN WILL BE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
STARTING LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ALTHOUGH
PATCHY COASTAL FOG MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST. AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS...AREAS OF SMOKE ARE EXPECTED IN THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST SMOKE IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR ACTIVE FIRES.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE BRISTOL BAY REGION IN EARNEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE RAPIDLY MOVING NORTHWARD TO THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY/DELTA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND THE KILBUCK MOUNTAINS. 

AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR ADAK HAS PUSHED INTO
THE BERING SEA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NEXT FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY LATE
TONIGHT. RAIN AND WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW...RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND A RIDGE TRANSITS THE GULF AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SUPPRESSING RAIN EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF
THE SUSITNA AND AND COPPER RIVER VALLEYS WHERE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TO THE
WEST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN PULLS
A FRONT NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
STILL LACK AGREEMENT. THE ALASKA PENINSULA...KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
EASTERN KENAI WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO AGREE ON BRINGING A SWATH OF
RAIN ACROSS BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE KUSKOKWIM ON
SUNDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN TIME AS MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE USED TO
UPDATE THE WEEKEND FORECAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
BEYOND MONDAY. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL
DRY ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING FRONT LATE SUNDAY SPREADING RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AND BERING INTO MONDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
THE PATTERN TO WATCH NEXT WEEK AS IT MAY BECOME THE DOMINATING
SYSTEM THAT BRINGS A REGULAR PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 131 132 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PLD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...KH


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KGRR 021927
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER QUIET FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY 
WEEKEND FOR LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE AREA 
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND WILL MAX OUT IN THE 80S FOR 
MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN WILL 
BE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. 
THIS CHANCE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONT THAT WILL 
SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BEFORE WASHING OUT.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME NEXT WEEK LATE 
ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE ONLY CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING PCPN CHCS FOR 
SAT AS A FRONT THAT WILL BE WASHING OUT MOVES OVERHEAD.

SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAS 
DEVELOPED CUMULUS ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. THIS 
CUMULUS IS MIXING OUT AS DRIER AIR ALOFT IS MIXING DOWN...AND WE 
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING.

WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA. 
WE WILL SEE SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...SUPPORTING 
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC MOVING OVERHEAD. A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND 
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN THE DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES 
WILL MODERATE AS THE HEIGHTS BUILD.

THE ONLY CHC OF RAIN WILL COME ACROSS THE NRN THIRD INLAND PORTION 
OF THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE BY 
NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE U.P. AND TIP OF THE MITT ON SAT. AN 
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN THE AREA...BUT WILL BE WASHING 
OUT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY. MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING 
ISOLATED PCPN UP NORTH AS THE WEAKENING FRONT ENCOUNTERS SOME SLIGHT 
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. THE SHORELINE WILL LIKELY BE STABLE ENOUGH WITH 
A WIND OFF OF THE LAKE TO KEEP THEM DRY.

WE WILL DRY OUT ENTIRELY THEN SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND 
AS A LONGER WAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW. THIS WILL 
REINFORCE THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND REMAIN INTO THE LONG TERM. 
WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT...TEMPS WILL ONLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH 
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND ONLY WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

I AM BEGINNING TO BELIEVE THIS COMING WEEK WILL LIKELY BE THE 
WARMEST WEEK OF THE SUMMER SO FAR (NOT HARD TO DO GIVEN HOW COLD IT 
HAS BEEN). THERE IS STILL THE COLD FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH WITH 
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BUT IT IS LOOKING 
LIKE THAT FRONT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS I WAS THINKING EARLIER 
SINCE THE REALLY COLD AIR IS DELAYED BEHIND A SECOND UPPER AIR 
SYSTEM THAT LIKELY WILL NOT GET TO MICHIGAN UNTIL BEYOND THIS 
FORECAST PERIOD. 

WE STILL HAVE OUR REX BLOCK OVER THE AREA NEAR THE BERING SEA AND A 
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WAS OFF THE WEST COAST WHICH HAS MOVED INLAND 
TO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. IT IS THAT SYSTEM THAT BRINGS THE COLD 
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY. HERE IS THE ISSUE THROUGH...THERE IS A 
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT DIVES SOUTH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES MONDAY 
INTO TUESDAY. THAT DIGS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH... OVER MOST OF 
CANADA (CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY) SOUTHWESTWARD OVER WESTERN CANADA. 
THAT IN TURN INCREASED THE UPPER AIR HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN 
CANADA AND MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS IN 
TURN WEAKENS THE FRONT...STALLING IT JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THE 
REAL COLD AIR BEING TRAPPED NORTH OF THE POLAR JET...WHICH NEXT WEEK 
WILL BE NEAR NORTH OF 50N. THIS WILL CHANGE LATER IN THE WEEK OR 
EARLY IN FOLLOWING WEEK AS THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST...BUT UNTIL 
THEN... WE WILL HAVE A MORE WESTERLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. 
IN TURN WE GET TO HAVE MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. 

THE BOTTOM LINE TO THIS IS THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SEEMS LOWER TO 
ME EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT DRY WEATHER 
(EXCEPT FOR AROUND 18 HOURS LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY). I 
INCREASED THE FORECAST HIGHS TO THE MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. I AM 
THINKING WE MAY SEE LOWER TO MID 80S TUE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT I 
WENT CONVECTIVE YET THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT VFR CEILINGS WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH
A LARGELY EASTERLY WIND. TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. I DO NOT
THINK FOG SHOULD BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS THERE IS TOO MUCH MIXING
DUE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MARINE HEADLINES BEING NEEDED FOR THE 
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS AND WAVES 
REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN 
AND A DIURNAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 
BELOW 15 KNOTS...AND SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH 
SUNDAY. NEXT INCREASE IN WIND LOOKS TO OCCUR ON MON AHEAD OF THE 
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING AT THAT TIME.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SOME UPWELLING HAS OCCURRED AT THE SHORELINE WITH 
THE NNE WINDS OVER THE LAST DAY. SOME WATER TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO 
NEAR 40F ALONG THE SHORE PER LATEST WATER OBSERVATIONS FROM THE 
SITES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE KALAMAZOO RIVER NEAR COMSTOCK AND NEW RICHMOND IS FALLING BELOW 
BANKFULL THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA AND SYCAMORE CREEK 
NEAR HOLT ARE THE ONLY RIVERS THAT REMAIN ABOVE BANKFULL... AND 
LEVELS AT BOTH LOCATIONS ARE FALLING. ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE DAY... WEATHER WILL STAY DRY UNTIL THE 
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS 
MARINE...NJJ


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 091439 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
939 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.UPDATE...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS SMOKE COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTING EASTWARD
LATE THIS MORNING...SO STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR
TEMPS TO WARM UP QUITE A BIT. LATEST MODELS SHOWING 925 MB TEMPS
GETTING AS HIGH AS 24 TO 27 C IN THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
JUST A DEGREE OR SO COOLER EAST. GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE...TEMPS
SHOULD EASILY REACH FORECAST HIGHS. WOULD CONSIDER TEMPS A BIT
WARMER IF NOT FOR THE SMOKE AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. 

OTHERWISE...A COUPLE MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW A LITTLE CONVECTION
LATE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A LITTLE
LIFT MAINLY BELOW 700 MB IN MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH AROUND 1000
J/KG OF CAPE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON...BUT NOT SOLD ON THIS
QUITE YET. ANY ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
WAVE...BUT BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST WITH
THE FRONT. 

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/ 

SHORT TERM...

TODAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN 
SLOWLY FALLING TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT IN MANY AREAS.  WEBCAMS NOT 
SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG SO WL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO MORE 
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS.  THIS PATCHY LIGHT FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY 
AFTER 12Z.  

PAIR OF UPSTREAM WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL BE MOVING THRU WI TODAY.  
FIRST IS IN THE VICINITY OF NW WI/MN BORDER AND WILL PASS ACROSS
SRN WI THIS MRNG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND LACKING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RH SO WL CONTINUE DRY
MRNG FORECAST. SECOND UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IN NE NODAK PASSES
ACROSS NRN WI DURING THE AFTN...WITH WEAK SOUTHWARD EXTENSION
AFFECTING SRN WI. SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING 4KM WRF FROM
SPC SHOWING SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING NRN CWA BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH ELEVATED CAPE
RAISING TO AROUND 500 J. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL MIXING TO
LOWER SFC DEWPTS INTO THE LOWER 50S WHICH WOULD REDUCE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. FOR NOW LINGER DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT
ISOLD CONVECTION POSSIBLE.
 
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CWA AFTER 06Z.  A LITTLE BIT MORE 
LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AS THIS FRONT MOVES.  LAYER Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASES TO OVER 10 UNITS.  MOISTURE REMAINS 
QUESTIONABLE FACTOR OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE TO IMPRESSIVE LAYER 
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT...WL 
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.  MAY BE A PERIOD OF 
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE 
NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE SURFACE TO 850MB COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH 
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME ONGOING LIGHT SHOWERS IN 
SOUTHEAST WI WED MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER 
GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND 
OVERNIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL 
ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. THE WARM START TO THE 
DAY AND THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW 
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 80S IN SOUTHERN WI.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 
UPPER JET... WILL ROLL THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVE 
ACROSS WI ON FRIDAY. WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE IN 
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AND THETA-E ADVECTION 
WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH THU EVENING. 
DRY EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCES LIMITED. 

THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ WILL FOCUS ON SOUTHERN MN 
/NORTHERN IA ON THU AFTERNOON... AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI 
LATE THU NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR AN MCS THAT 
SHOULD ROLL ACROSS WI THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS. THE 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UP TO AROUND 1.75 WHICH IS AROUND 
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID JUNE. THIS MEANS THAT ANY CONVECTION 
THAT DEVELOPS WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. AMOUNTS 
SHOULD EXCEED ONE INCH. 

THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE 
WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT AND SHEARS IT OUT OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH 
SATURDAY. THE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THAT PRECIP WILL 
WIND DOWN FRI AFTERNOON. 

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MODELS DIVERGE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LOCATION OF THE 
850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING THE SHOWER AND 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD AND THERE IS A LOT OF 
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF 
THE WI/IL BORDER WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS KEEP IT RIGHT 
OVER THE BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THEY ALL BRING IT INTO NORTHERN WI 
FOR SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE.

A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE COUNTRY 
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ROUNDS OF 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS SHOWING A RAINIER PATTERN THAN 
THE ECWMF AT THIS TIME. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVES IS 
INHERENTLY VARIABLE BETWEEN MODELS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LIGHT FOG MAY YET DEVELOP AT INLAND TAF SITES 
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER PATCHY MID-CLOUDS PREVENTING TEMP FROM 
SINKING TO DEWPOINT LAST FEW HOURS.  OTRW...A VFR PERIOD WITH A 
SMALL CHANCE FOR T AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TNGT.  AN 
ISOLD SHOWER OR STORM MAY POP UP THIS AFTN BUT INSTABILITY AND MID-
LEVEL RH MINIMAL SO WL NOT ADD TO TAFS FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD LLWS 
REMARK TO TAFS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS 
SRN WI.

MARINE...MODIS LAKE SURFACE IMAGERY FROM AROUND 17Z MONDAY SHOWED 
SHALLOWER NEAR SHORE WATERS HAD WARMED INTO THE LOWER 50S.  BREEZY 
OFFSHORE WINDS MONDAY AFTN MAY HAVE PULLED SOME COOLER WATER TO THE 
SURFACE...HOWEVER LATEST ATWATER BUOY WATER TEMPERATURE AROUND 
49...WHICH IS ABOUT 2KM OFFSHORE OF ATWATER BEACH IN NRN MILWAUKEE 
CO.  SFC DEWPTS AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAKE TEMP IN NEARSHORE. 
MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS BUT WL WAIT FOR THE 
VSBL IMAGERY TO CONFIRM.  DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD DRY THE LOW LEVELS 
SLIGHTLY SO NOT CONFIDENT ENUF AT THIS POINT TO ADD FOG TO 
NEARSHORE. 

THERMAL GRADIENT AND WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW LAKE 
BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN.  HOWEVER LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE CONFINED 
TO LAKESHORE AREAS DUE TO SOUTHWEST AFTN WINDS.  LAKE BREEZE SHOULD 
BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO KSBM DUE TO SHORE ORIENTATION AND MAY BE ABLE 
TO MAKE IT TO KMKE BUT NOT MUCH FURTHER INLAND. 

BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF CDFNT 
THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TNGT AND EARLY 
WED.  OFFSHORE GUSTS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS 
BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 090853
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
353 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN 
SLOWLY FALLING TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT IN MANY AREAS.  WEBCAMS NOT 
SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG SO WL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO MORE 
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS.  THIS PATCHY LIGHT FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY 
AFTER 12Z.  

PAIR OF UPSTREAM WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL BE MOVING THRU WI TODAY.  
FIRST IS IN THE VICNITY OF NW WI/MN BORDER AND WILL PASS ACROSS SRN 
WI THIS MRNG.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL ELEVATED 
INSTABILITY AND LACKING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RH SO WL CONTINUE DRY MRNG 
FORECAST.  SECOND UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IN NE NODAK PASSES ACROSS NRN 
WI DURING THE AFTN...WITH WEAK SOUTHWARD EXTENSION AFFECTING SRN WI. 
SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING 4KM WRF FROM SPC SHOWING SCT 
CONVECTION AFFECTING NRN CWA BY LATE AFTN.  HOWEVER FORECAST 
SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH ELEVATED CAPE RAISING TO 
AROUND 500 J.  HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL MIXING TO LOWER SFC 
DEWPTS INTO THE LOWER 50S WHICH WOULD REDUCE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  
FOR NOW LINGER DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT ISOLD CONVECTION 
POSSIBLE. 
 
.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CWA AFTER 06Z.  A LITTLE BIT MORE 
LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AS THIS FRONT MOVES.  LAYER Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASES TO OVER 10 UNITS.  MOISTURE REMAINS 
QUESTIONABLE FACTOR OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE TO IMPRESSIVE LAYER 
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT...WL 
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.  MAY BE A PERIOD OF 
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE 
NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE SURFACE TO 850MB COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH 
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME ONGOING LIGHT SHOWERS IN 
SOUTHEAST WI WED MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER 
GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND 
OVERNIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL 
ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. THE WARM START TO THE 
DAY AND THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW 
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 80S IN SOUTHERN WI.

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 
UPPER JET... WILL ROLL THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVE 
ACROSS WI ON FRIDAY. WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE IN 
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AND THETA-E ADVECTION 
WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH THU EVENING. 
DRY EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCES LIMITED. 

THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ WILL FOCUS ON SOUTHERN MN 
/NORTHERN IA ON THU AFTERNOON... AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI 
LATE THU NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR AN MCS THAT 
SHOULD ROLL ACROSS WI THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS. THE 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UP TO AROUND 1.75 WHICH IS AROUND 
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID JUNE. THIS MEANS THAT ANY CONVECTION 
THAT DEVELOPS WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. AMOUNTS 
SHOULD EXCEED ONE INCH. 

THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE 
WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT AND SHEARS IT OUT OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH 
SATURDAY. THE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THAT PRECIP WILL 
WIND DOWN FRI AFTERNOON. 

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MODELS DIVERGE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LOCATION OF THE 
850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING THE SHOWER AND 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD AND THERE IS A LOT OF 
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF 
THE WI/IL BORDER WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS KEEP IT RIGHT 
OVER THE BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THEY ALL BRING IT INTO NORTHERN WI 
FOR SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE.

A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE COUNTRY 
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ROUNDS OF 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS SHOWING A RAINIER PATTERN THAN 
THE ECWMF AT THIS TIME. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVES IS 
INHERENTLY VARIABLE BETWEEN MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LIGHT FOG MAY YET DEVELOP AT INLAND TAF SITES 
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER PATCHY MID-CLOUDS PREVENTING TEMP FROM 
SINKING TO DEWPOINT LAST FEW HOURS.  OTRW...A VFR PERIOD WITH A 
SMALL CHANCE FOR T AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TNGT.  AN 
ISOLD SHOWER OR STORM MAY POP UP THIS AFTN BUT INSTABILITY AND MID-
LEVEL RH MINIMAL SO WL NOT ADD TO TAFS FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD LLWS 
REMARK TO TAFS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS 
SRN WI.

&&

.MARINE...MODIS LAKE SURFACE IMAGERY FROM AROUND 17Z MONDAY SHOWED 
SHALLOWER NEAR SHORE WATERS HAD WARMED INTO THE LOWER 50S.  BREEZY 
OFFSHORE WINDS MONDAY AFTN MAY HAVE PULLED SOME COOLER WATER TO THE 
SURFACE...HOWEVER LATEST ATWATER BUOY WATER TEMPERATURE AROUND 
49...WHICH IS ABOUT 2KM OFFSHORE OF ATWATER BEACH IN NRN MILWAUKEE 
CO.  SFC DEWPTS AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAKE TEMP IN NEARSHORE. 
MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS BUT WL WAIT FOR THE 
VSBL IMAGERY TO CONFIRM.  DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD DRY THE LOW LEVELS 
SLIGHTLY SO NOT CONFIDENT ENUF AT THIS POINT TO ADD FOG TO 
NEARSHORE. 

THERMAL GRADIENT AND WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW LAKE 
BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN.  HOWEVER LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE CONFINED 
TO LAKESHORE AREAS DUE TO SOUTHWEST AFTN WINDS.  LAKE BREEZE SHOULD 
BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO KSBM DUE TO SHORE ORIENTATION AND MAY BE ABLE 
TO MAKE IT TO KMKE BUT NOT MUCH FURTHER INLAND. 

BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF CDFNT 
THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TNGT AND EARLY 
WED.  OFFSHORE GUSTS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS 
BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 311459 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
959 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...

A FEW CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. FORECAST HIGHS LOOK TO
BE ON TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MAY SEE MVFR CIGS BRUSH FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 

&&

.MARINE...

BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO LINGERING 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT 
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  AS LOW 
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST...PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WHICH WILL 
ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH AND RESULTANT WAVES TO SUBSIDE LATER 
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  MODIS IMAGERY FROM AROUND 09Z THIS MORNING 
SHOWED MID-LAKE SFC TEMPS HOLDING AROUND 40F. 

&&

.BEACHES...

HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.  EXPECTED 
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES 
CREATING DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG PIERS AND BREAKWALLS.  DRIVING 
FORCE BEHIND DANGEROUS SWIM CONDITIONS IS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...UP 
TO 30 MPH.  THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND 
TONIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.  ONSHORE FLOW TO 
CONTINUE ON MONDAY...BUT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ 

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE STRONG JET ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WAS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK 500/250 MB TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
TONIGHT. NOT MUCH REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH EVEN AT 700 MB AS 700
MB RH ID DRY. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS. 850 MB RH
IS ALSO DRY. THERE IS SOME HIGHER RH AT 925 MB THIS MORNING IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST THAT DRYS MID TO LATE MORNING.

WITH SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE...BUT AN INVERSION AROUND
5 THSD FT WILL LIMIT THE MIXING. EVEN SO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
LOWER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND STAY RATHER LOW EAST. EVEN
WITH THE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MIXING...IT IS ENOUGH TO BRING GUSTS TO
20 TO 25 MPH WEST AREAS AND 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EAST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEY HAVE A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS INDICATE HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WELL INLAND ON MONDAY...AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S
TUESDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH MAIN FEATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THEY SHIFT THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST DURING THIS TIME. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGHS WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND RESULT IN
QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY.

KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES MAINLY THURSDAY...AS
500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHES THE AREA. HOWEVER...GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MEAGER WITH DEEP MOISTURE...SO COULD SEE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY END UP DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM DURING THIS TIME...WITH COOLER READINGS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

MODELS SHOWING SOME MORE DIFFERENCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
THEY DO BRING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTHWEST
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND HAS LESS QPF THAN THE GFS.

CONTINUED WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
PERIOD. DRY EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO REDUCE CHANCES FOR QPF FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS. GFS
ALSO SHOWING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE ECMWF WEST OF
THAT AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...COOLER
NEAR THE LAKE WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND KENOSHA INTO MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR. AN INVERSION AROUND 5 THSD FT WILL LIMIT THE AFTERNOON
MIXING. EVEN WITH THE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MIXING...IT IS ENOUGH TO
BRING GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WEST AREAS AND 20 TO 25 KNOT GUSTS
EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

WILL HAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SUNDAY AREAS
NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND TIL 9 PM FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. FEW WIND
GUSTS STILL REACHING GALE CRITERIA SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE BUT THESE
SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE SHORTLY. THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS DUE TO
LOW PRESSURE NEAR INDIANAPOLIS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.

BEACHES...

WILL EXTEND THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK UNTIL
6 PM THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AREAS...AND 9 PM THIS EVENING SOUTH
AREAS. WAVES NOT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET UNTIL THEN.
DANGEROUS...LIFE THREATENING SWIM CONDITIONS WILL THUS CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...LAKE MICHIGAN
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...CREATING A
HYPOTHERMIA RISK.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ066-
     071-072.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
     060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HENTZ 
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 062141
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
141 PM AKDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 72 HOURS. UNLIKE WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE COOLED A BIT A H850 FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE INTERIOR BY A FEW DEGREES CELSIUS. BESIDE FOR THAT CHANGE
AMONG THE MODELS...GOOD CONTINUITY BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE. 

ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH LATE FRIDAY BEFORE BEING PUSHED EAST AND OVER
CANADA THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW LOCATED 500 MILES SOUTH OF
UNALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA. FROM THIS
UPPER LOW...A SHORTWAVE WILL BE EJECTED NORTHWARD FROM THIS
EASTWARD MOVING LOW...MOVING OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
REACHING THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TREK...IT WILL SPLIT
INTO TWO CENTERS...ONE OVER BRISTOL BAY AND ANOTHER ROUGHLY 800
MILES SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE LOW SOUTH OF
KODIAK WILL ROTATE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN...AND APPROACH THE THE
GULF OF ALASKA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A LOW OVER SIBERIA
AND GRAZE THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER ON SATURDAY.

SURFACE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...STRETCHING
FROM THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY TO OVER FAIRBANKS...AND EAST TO EAGLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK 1003 MB SURFACE LOW OVER
THE YUKON DELTA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FORCING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A SURFACE HIGH STRETCHING
FROM EASTERN SIBERIA TO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WILL BE SPLIT BY
A SOUTHWARD MOVING LOW TONIGHT.

WESTERN ALASKA...MORNING IMAGES FROM THE MODIS SPORT MICROPHYSICS
RGB PRODUCT SHOW WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG FROM THE SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND VICINITY AND BERING STRAIT NORTH INTO THE CHUKCHI
SEA AND KOTZEBUE SOUND VICINITY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA HAVE REPORTED VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE
AT TIMES THIS MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED AROUND
KOTZEBUE SOUND. THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG WILL PERSIST. BOTH
THE BETHEL AND NOME RADARS HAVE PICKED UP ON SOME SHOWERS LATE
THIS MORNING. AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...THEN NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AS THE
MOISTURE IS FORCED NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS. SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN
TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER ZONES 216 AND 227 FOR THURSDAY
EVENING AND FRIDAY...BUT ITS NOT LIKELY GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND
CLOUD COVER.

NORTH SLOPE...IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST BEGINNING TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...CLEARING
SKIES AND FOG DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS STRATUS AND FOG WILL RETURN IN TIME FOR THE
WEEKEND. STRATUS AND FOG WILL LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AS A
SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. 

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...ANOTHER COUPLE OF BEAUTIFUL DAYS
ARE ON TAP AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S AND 60S OVER THE
AREA. WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE
AND A SOUTHERLY CHINOOK DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
THIS COMBINED WITH ALREADY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ADD TO THE CONCERN
FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF
FAIRBANKS THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD NORTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH TOWARDS THE
ARCTIC COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A THERMAL TROUGH WILL FORM JUST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY
THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THU. THIS WILL ALSO CREATE GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN ZONES 223 225 AND 226.

SOUTHERLY CHINOOK WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT 
AND THURSDAY WILL CAUSE THE WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THOSE SAME AREAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A QUIET BREAK UP CONTINUES. OPEN LEADS AND SHIFTING ICE NEAR
NATION RIVER ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT OPEN WATER NEAR CIRCLE
REPORTED FROM THE RIVER WATCH FLIGHT OVER THE UPPER YUKON LATE
THIS MORNING. REPORTS FROM OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS ALONG THE TANANA
AND YUKON RIVERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT WATER LEVELS ARE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/HYDRO...LTH 
FIRE WEATHER...JB/LTH 

MAY 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 051127
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
327 AM AKDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT TERM. INITIALIZED
WELL AGAIN TODAY AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH MAJOR
FEATURES WITHIN A COUPLE MB. A LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HANDLING OF
THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT MORE VIGOROUS THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED. SO WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
DATABASE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION FROM
FAIRBANKS NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ALOFT...SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THE RIDGE WILL
ROTATE BACK OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH 551 DAM CENTER OVER
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND MOVING OVER LAKE MINCHUMINA AS THE CENTER
MERGES WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. A 515 DAM LOW IN THE HIGH RUSSIAN ARCTIC WILL ROTATE
EAST TO NORTH OF BARROW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
518 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO 400
NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE NORTH OVER
KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE
RIDGE EAST OVER CANADA BY SUNDAY EVENING.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND WILL
ENTRENCH ITSELF NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY. A VIGOROUS LITTLE
1020 MB LOW NORTH BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST DRAGGING A FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE TODAY. RIDGING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND WILL HELP IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF GAP WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE.
DOWNSLOPE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. A 1030 MB
HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO BY THURSDAY EVENING. A 990 MB LOW SOUTH OF
ADAK WILL MOVE TO 500 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVE NORTH TO KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING. A
1008 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
MOVES TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRATUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE AREA. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AS WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...BUT EXPECT THE STRATUS TO REMAIN AND AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH
ON THE MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCTS...BUT THE GOES MVFR
PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 05/0715Z CLEARLY INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF
STRATUS OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
TRANSITION FROM NORTH TO EAST AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVE EAST INTO
CANADIAN WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
20 MPH...BUT MAY BE UP TO 30 MPH EAST OF DEADHORSE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...REMAINS QUIET TODAY...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS
SOME MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT A BETTER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATER IN
THE WEEK AS A STRONGER LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE COASTAL
AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 MPH NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS IN ZONE 227. WITH THAT EXCEPTION WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION FROM FAIRBANKS NORTHEAST TODAY AS
A VIGOROUS LITTLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHORTWAVE BRINGS GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS WITH IT. STILL
PRETTY DRY AT THE SURFACE SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TAPPING INTO
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THUNDERSTORMS...IF
THEY OCCUR WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. WITH IT BEING DRY AT THE
SURFACE NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION AT THE
SURFACE. TEMPERATURES TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE THERMAL
TROUGH SETS UP...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TODAY.
STRONGER WINDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEAR THE
ALASKA RANGE AS THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE STRENGTHENS.
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE RANGE WITH THE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SO VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN ZONES 223 225 AND 226.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 TO 8...PER NORMAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW
MUCH CONSENSUS. RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO CANADA AND A LOW DEVELOPS
AND MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SPREADING RAIN
FROM FAIRBANKS NORTH. MODELS NOW MAKING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A
LITTLE COOLER OVER THE INTERIOR. MODELS ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST
SUNDAY. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH STRENGTHENING OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST AREAS NEAR THE ALASKA
RANGE YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH
WINDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY ISSUE RED FLAG
WARNINGS SOMETIME TODAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY NORTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE VERY LEAST HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
VIRGA WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TO BE POOR TO FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...REPORTED THAT THE ICE MOVED AT EAGLE TODAY BUT
STOPPED NEAR THE OLD VILLAGE OF EAGLE. VIIRS APRFC RIVER ICE
AREAL EXTENT PRODUCT AT 04/2117Z INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THE
YUKON RIVER REMAINS MIXED ICE AND WATER DOWN TO AT LEAST TANANA.
REPORTS FROM OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS INDICATE THAT WATER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. RIVER WATCH
MISSION TODAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE UPPER YUKON BETWEEN THE FORT
YUKON AND EAGLE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 042255
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
255 PM AKDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS BY
MID WEEK...THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS/FOG ISSUES ON THE NORTH SLOPE...WARMING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR...AS WELL AS HIT AND MISS
FOG/STRATUS ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA COAST.

MODELS...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC
MODELS THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS...THEREAFTER THE TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MID/LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS BECOME APPARENT.
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...NUDGED A BLEND OF THE MODELS AGAINST
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ALOFT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND FILL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA THIS MORNING WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TOMORROW...SQUASHING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH AND EAST OF ITS CURRENT
POSITION. AS THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA...REMAINING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CLIP THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA
COAST WEDNESDAY.

REGARDING H850 TEMPERATURES...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER MAINLAND ALASKA...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT MUCH WARMER H850 TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
MAINLAND ALASKA. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BOTH THE 12Z
GFS/ECWMF ARE FORECASTING +7C TO +9C H850 TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE...THE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNDEFINED AS IT
REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH. A
SURFACE HIGH STRETCHES FROM THE NEW SIBERIAN ISLANDS EAST TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND WILL NOSE NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE ALASKA RANGE BY LATE TUESDAY. THE 986 LOW 250 NM SOUTH
OF ATKA SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WEAKEN THROUGH
THURSDAY.

WESTERN ALASKA...FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE WEST COAST. PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS IS STILL FLOATING OUT IN THE BERING STRAIT AND BERING SEA
PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING
STRAIT COAST AND THE MODIS/SPORT 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS RGB
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
LOWER YUKON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVERHEAD.

NORTH SLOPE...FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY ON THE NORTH
SLOPE. AS WAS PREVIOUSLY STATED IN THE MORNING
DISCUSSION...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE NORTH SLOPE SINCE THERE ARE NO STRONG FEATURES TO FORCE THE
DEPARTURE OF THE FOG/STRATUS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
CLIP THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST WEDNESDAY AND
WILL GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE NORTH.

EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE INTERIOR. THE POSSIBILITY
FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW OR EVEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WILL BE VERY LOW...AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN
LACKLUSTER. AS THE RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SETUP WARMING THE INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND WILL BE NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS
HELP ENHANCE GAP FLOW THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE. LOOKING AT
INDIVIDUAL CROSS SECTIONS FOR BROAD PASS...ISABEL PASS AND
MENTASTA PASS...USING THE 12Z NAM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE PASSES WEDNESDAY MORNING...TO 20 TO 30 KTS
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING...SUBSIDING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Q VECTOR ANALYSIS SHOWS VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ARRIVE IN THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY. DIVERGENCE IS SEEN ALOFT
WHICH ADDS CREDENCE TO THE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES. MANY
INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXCEPT FOR
MOISTURE. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO
BE LIFTED WHICH IS INDICATED BY THE THETA E ANALYSIS. ADDITIONALLY
THE CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

ON WED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND CONTINUED
DRYING WILL BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE WHICH WILL ENHANCE GAP
FLOW WINDS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY OVER
MANY AREAS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LATEST RIVER REPORT FROM EAGLE THIS MORNING...REPORTS THAT
THE ICE STARTED TO MOVE OVERNIGHT AND STOPPED ONE MILE UPSTREAM OF
EAGLE. RIVER WATCH MISSION IS STILL ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE UPPER YUKON...SO NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES YET. OTHERWISE...BREAK
UP REMAINS TO BE QUIET SO FAR THIS SEASON.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/HYDROLOGY...LTH FIRE WEATHER...CF

MAY 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KMTR 031555
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
855 AM PDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL MIX OUT THE MARINE
LAYER...BUT ALSO MAINTAIN RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF OUR AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:41 AM PDT SUNDAY...DEEP MARINE LAYER THIS
MORNING IS SLIGHTLY OVER 2000 FEET AT FORD ORD. LAST NIGHTS MODIS
AND EARLY MORNING GOES IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD THICKNESS AROUND 1000
FEET...DEEPER SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA AND SHALLOWER NORTH BAY.
IMPLICATION IS FOR EARLIER DISSIPATION NORTH BAY AND INLAND...BUT
STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS IN THE STRATUS
MUCH OF THE DAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MORNING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S CLIMBING TO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST TO 70S
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH EXTENSIVE PUSH OF
STRATUS INLAND NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. LATEST NAM STRENGTHENS ONSHORE
GRADIENT TO 3.7 MB SFO TO SAC MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL...THEN MARINE
LAYER MIXING INCREASES TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFING
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE COOLING TREND
THAT BEGAN ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE
OF TODAY'S COOLING IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WHAT OCCURRED
DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CA COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. BOTH THE NAM
AND WRF MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EVEN GREATER INLAND
SURGE OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TONIGHT...AS WELL AS CONTINUED COOL
CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY.

AFTER THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ON MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST...RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO CLEAR OUT
MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDINESS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS BRING
ABOUT SLIGHT WARMING ON TUESDAY. 

AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAC NW BY MIDWEEK.
THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE REASONABLY WELL IN DROPPING THAT LOW DUE
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN EJECTING THAT LOW
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS ALSO FORECAST SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
PROJECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES INLAND OVER
THE CENTRAL COAST.

THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS COOLING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND IN ALL AREAS
BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW NORMAL IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AND REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST BY LATE
FRIDAY...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DRY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND. BUT THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN...WITH ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
PROJECTED TO APPROACH CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:36 AM PDT SUNDAY...AS NOTED ABOVE DEEP MARINE
LAYER IN PLACE WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW POCKETS OF IFR
CONDITIONS. KSJC AND KLVK ARE ON THE EDGE AND LATEST TRENDS
SUGGEST STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE CLEARING
WILL BE MID MORNING FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT. CONF IS MEDIUM-HIGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS WITH CLEARING 17-18Z. BRIEF PERIOD OF
NE WINDS POSSIBLE. STRONGER WEST PUSH OF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
 
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 4:36 AM PDT SUNDAY...NO REAL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A SERIES OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL COAST TODAY. PT CONCEPTION BUOY IS ALREADY SHOWING 3.5 FT
AT 25 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
LONG PERIOD WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL...4 TO 6 FEET...THE
POWERFUL NATURE OF LONG PERIOD WAVES WILL RESULT IN EXCEPTIONALLY
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERLY FACING
BEACHES SUCH AS STINSON BEACH IN MARIN COUNTY AND THE BEACHES
ALONG THE MONTEREY BAY COAST OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.
ADDITIONALLY...THESE LONG PERIOD WAVES WILL ALSO RESULT IN LARGE
SHORE BREAK AT TWIN LAKES STATE BEACH AND THE SANTA CRUZ BOARDWALK
BEACH. LARGE SHORE BREAK CAN RESULT IN NECK AND BACK INJURIES. IF
YOU PLAN ON ENTERING THE WATER PLEASE DO SO NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND
ALWAYS KEEP AN EYE ON THE OCEAN WHEN VISITING THE BEACH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:31 AM PDT SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ELSEWHERE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 030932
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
132 AM AKDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 60 OURS. INITIALIZED
WELL AT 06Z. WILL JUST USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE
CURRENT DATABASE.

ALOFT...552 DAM HIGH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST TO
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND WEAKEN TO 552 DAM...THEN BE ABSORBED
BY A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A 542 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
EAST OVER THE BROOKS RANGE. A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
WILL SPIT WITH A 553 CENTER MOVING OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY
MONDAY MORNING...THEN SLIDES WEST. A 531 DAM LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO CANADA. A 520 DAM LOW OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO BE 400 NM SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS
TUESDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE COASTAL AREAS.

SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL DRIFT NORTH. A
1002 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST INTO CANADA.
A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA DRIVEN
BY WHERE THE THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT STRENGTHENS OVER THE INTERIOR
TUESDAY. A 983 MB LOW NEAR ADAK WILL BE QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CHASING STRATUS WILL BE THE
THEME...BUT WILL ONLY HAVE TO CHASE THE CHANGING HEIGHT...BECAUSE
IT IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNINGS
EAST OF BARROW WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE DEALT WITH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES TO THE EAST OF BARROW BY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY KICK OFF A
FEW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
MPH. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST TO THE WEST OF
PRUDHOE BAY AND SOUTHEAST TO EAST TO THE EAST OF PRUDHOE BAY.
MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT SHOWS A BAND OF STRATUS AND
FOG THAT HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...AS WELL AS
SOME STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON
DELTA WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND IS
ABSORBED BY SHORTWAVE OVER BROOKS RANGE MONDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY
OVER THE LOWER YUKON AND KUSKOKWIM DELTAS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. A RAPIDLY MOVING LOW IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER YUKON DELTA
INTO THE BERING STRAIT ON THURSDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE EXPECTED.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...DEVELOPMENT OF THE THERMAL TROUGH
AS WE GET INTO THE WEEK WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR WEATHER IN THE
INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AFTER ONE LAST DRY DAY
AND THIS WILL HELP INJECT MOISTURE INTO THE INTERIOR CREATING A
BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT EAST WINDS IN THE INTERIOR...HOWEVER
EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE THERMAL TROUGH
SETS UP.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 TO 8...RIDGING FROM CANADA WILL BE
PUSHED BACK TO THE EAST AND LINGER OVER THE ALCAN BORDER AREA. A
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND
NORTHWEST ARCTIC. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL PERSIST
IN SOME FORM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS A LITTLE TODAY AND
WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE RISE AS WELL AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INCREASES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STILL NOT UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR ANY TYPE OF CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED BY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
EXPECTED. FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY TONIGHT THEN GOOD RECOVERY THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SLOW BREAKUP CONTINUES...BUT THAT CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY.
OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS CONTINUE TO WATCH THE YUKON RIVER AND WILL
BE FLYING RIVER WATCH MISSIONS OVER THE UPPER YUKON AROUND EAGLE
AGAIN TODAY. 

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 021049
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
249 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH 2/00Z MODEL SUITE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z ECWMF AND
GFS IN THE EXTENDED...BUT THE ECWMF HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH THE 2/00Z MODEL RUN.

ALOFT...WEAK FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS ALASKA. WEAK UPPER LOW
NEAR ICY CAPE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW 225 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE WEST AND OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. 

SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND WESTERN
ALASKA COAST TODAY AND SUNDAY. OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR...A
THERMAL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY...ACROSS THE
ALASKA RANGE...TO NEAR CHICKEN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL
SHIFT SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTER DEVELOPS OVER
THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY SUNDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PERSISTS NORTH OF THE ARCTIC
COAST...STRATUS...FOG...AND SOME FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTH SLOPE THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

WESTERN ALASKA...MODIS SPORT NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB SATELLITE
IMAGES FROM THIS MORNING SHOW AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA...KOTZEBUE SOUND AND IN THE BERING STRAIT. DENSE FOG
HAS MANIFESTED IN KOTZEBUE SOUND...ALONG THE NORTHERN SEWARD
PENINSULA COAST THIS MORNING AND ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST.
EXPECTING THIS FOG TO THIN THIS MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED
YESTERDAY MORNING. OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEYS...MAY SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...NOT MUCH GOING ON OVER THE
AREA. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY. FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...A COUPLE OF BEAUTIFUL AND WARM SPRING DAYS ARE FORECAST.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL REMAIN NEAR 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY WHERE MIN RH
WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 22 PERCENT. DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. 

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

LTH MAY 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 261536 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1036 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE
REGION...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY LOOK TO AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE LAKE WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER NORTH WINDS INLAND.

TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WELL
INLAND...WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKE. GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH ONSHORE WINDS BRINGING
COOLER VALUES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN EACH DAY.

WOOD

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT THE EASTERN
SITES...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER NORTH WINDS AT MADISON.

LIGHT NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ON MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

WOOD

&&

.MARINE...

MODIS IMAGERY FROM FRIDAY REVEALED LAKE MI SFC TEMP AROUND 41
DEGREES. WEAK SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MI THIS AFTN AND EVE. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS SHOW LOW LEVEL INVERSION
PERSISTING. THIS SHOULD PREVENT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS
FROM REACHING LAKE SURFACE. 

HOWEVER...A FEW GUSTS MAY PUNCH THROUGH THIS INVERSION. WL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING SMALL CRAFT ADVY AT THIS POINT...DUE TO INFREQUENT
GUSTS EXPECTED. WL ADD EXERCISE CAUTION REMARK TO NSH FOR THIS
AFTN AND EVE.

MBK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. NORTH WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 8 TO 11 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 18 MPH IN
THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. 

THE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PERSIST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EACH DAY...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

WOOD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/ 

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. 

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CANADA EXTENDS BACK INTO 
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  THIS TROUGH DROPS SOUTH A LITTLE AND BUILDS 
BACK INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER 
DIVERGENCE OR 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.  THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN 700 
MB RH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST THAT REACHES THE LAKE MICHIGAN 
COUNTIES.  850 MB RH ALSO INCREASES...BUT MAINLY LATER TONIGHT. 
HOWEVER IT IS NOT SATURATED...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD 
SHIELD.  

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE INCREASE IN 700 MB WINDS THIS AFTERNOON... 
AND THE 850 MB WINDS MAINLY TONIGHT.  WHILE THE 700 MB WIND INCREASE 
OCCURS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THE 850 MB WIND INCREASE IS MAINLY 
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.  WITH SURFACE HEATING WIND GUSTS...WHILE NOT 
STRONG...WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT SUGGESTS. 
 
WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT TYPICAL 
SPRINGTIME COOLING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES WELL 
INLAND. 

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY AIR AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NOSE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES 
EARLY THIS WEEK AS A SPRAWLING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND 
SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE UPPER 
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING A PLEASANT 
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WI. THERE WILL BE A STEADY BREEZE OUT 
OF THE NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD... BUT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WE CAN EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. INLAND 
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR THIS PERIOD WHILE LAKESHORE TEMPS WILL 
BE STUCK IN THE 50S. 

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI TUE AFTERNOON/ 
EVENING. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR 
TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING AT LEAST A MID 
LEVEL CLOUD DECK... WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SPRINKLES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING OUR 
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDER IS DEBATABLE. THERE MAY 
BE SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER. LEFT 
IT OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THERE IS MORE CERTAINTY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE ON SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT UPPER LEVEL WEATHER 
PATTERNS LATER NEXT WEEKEND... BUT BOTH RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY 
COOLER THAN THE ECMWF DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME 
DIURNAL CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF 
THE FORECAST AREA AWAY FROM THE MORE STABLE EFFECTS NEAR LAKE 
MICHIGAN.  SOME CLOUDS IN THE 5 TO 8 THSD FT RANGE MAY AFFECT THE 
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM A WEAK TROUGH AXIS 
ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH CENTERED 
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE 
TO MAINLY SCATTERED.

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH MIXING BUT WITHOUT THE 
GUSTS LIKE SATURDAY. 

MARINE...

WINDS ARE EASING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS 
MORNING. A SURGE IN STRONGER NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS LATER THIS 
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD PUSH WINDS AND WAVES BACK TOWARDS SMALL 
CRAFT LEVELS. 

FIRE WEATHER...

MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PCT WELL INLAND AND ESPECIALLY 
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAYBE DOWN TOWARDS 20 PCT.   

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE INCREASE IN 700 MB WINDS THIS AFTERNOON... 
AND THE 850 MB WINDS MAINLY TONIGHT.  WHILE THE 700 MB WIND INCREASE 
OCCURS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THE 850 MB WIND INCREASE IS MAINLY 
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.  WITH SURFACE HEATING WIND GUSTS...WHILE NOT 
STRONG...WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT SUGGESTS. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...HENTZ 
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 252022
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 
320 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA 
BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH 700 MB DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS 
RESPONSE. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THE AREA FROM NORTH 
TO SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SUNSHINE 
IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AS DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE 
REGION. 

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING NORTH OF LAKE 
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...KEEPING THE DRIER FLOW OF AIR INTO THE 
REGION. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO 
THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY INTO THE 
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WELL INLAND. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP COOLER 40S 
NEAR THE LAKE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

WEAK PUSH OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL 
MOISTURE MAY BRING SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN CLOUDS TO ERN CWA SUN NGT AS 
LOBE OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATES AROUND ERN CONUS UPPER LOW.  ANY 
PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE TO REMAIN TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH 
PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT 
AND MONDAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER GTLAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS 
BEGINS TO SHRINK AND SPIN OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  LIGHTER 
WINDS AND NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WL RESULT IN WINDS 
REMAINING MOSTLY ONSHORE DURING THE DAYTIME NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.  
MODIS IMAGERY FROM FRIDAY REVEALED LAKE SEA SURFACE TEMP IN THE LOW 
40S.  LAKESHORE AREAS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S 
ON MONDAY BUT GET A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY DUE TO LIGHTER SFC 
WINDS...BEGINNING THE DAY NORTHWEST BEFORE VEERING ONSHORE. SUNSHINE 
AND WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW INLAND LOCATIONS TO REACH THE 
60S BOTH DAYS...PERHAPS NEARING 70 IN THE WEST ON TUESDAY.  

KEEPING AN EYE ON APPROACHING WEAK TROF IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  THIS 
TROF WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST WI ON TUESDAY AND SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WL 
LIKELY SPREAD INTO SRN WI LATER IN THE DAY FROM THIS FEATURE.  
QUESTIONABLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING SO WL CONTINUE DRY 
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF SHOW CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN CARRYING 
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS WI TUE AND WED.  ALL MEDIUM RANGE 
GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME FORM OF NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVE MOVING 
ACROSS WI DURING THIS PERIOD.  WHILE GFS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS 
FEATURE AND GEM KEEPS UPPER CIRCULATION SLIDING SOUTH INTO IA...ONLY 
ECMWF SHOWS THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAKE MI AREA TUE NGT 
INTO WED.  NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS SCENARIO AS ECMWF ALSO SHOWS 
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE KICKER ALREADY MOVING ACROSS SRN CAN NORTH OF 
THE PLAINS ON WED.  ALSO...GEM...GFS AND DGEX SHOWING MORE 
PROGRESSIVE...WEAKER SITUATION.  WL PROBABLY KEEP VERY SMALL CHANCES 
FOR -SHRA IN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR TUE NGT/WED TO ACKNOWLEDGE WEAK 
TROF PASSAGE.  SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BOTTLE UP DEEPER MOISTURE 
WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CONUS.  

THIS WEAK TROF DOES EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO 
RESULT IN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROF OVER ERN CONUS ON THU AND FRI.  
HOWEVER DESCREPANCY REMAINS AS SLOW GFS SHOWS DEEPENING UPPER LOW 
OVER ERN GTLAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE ECMWF 
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND TAKES SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW INTO WRN ATLANTIC BY 
FRI.  THESE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS HAVE A DIRECT AFFECT ON EXPECTED 
TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS.  MORE 
AMPLIFIED GFS SOLUTION KEEPS DEEPER RIDGING AND COLDER NORTHWEST 
FLOW LINGERING LONGER ACROSS WRN GTLAKES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  MORE 
PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SHOWS UPSTREAM RIDGING BREAKING DOWN FASTER...WITH 
MILDER MORE ZONAL FLOW SETTLING INTO WI ON SAT...WHILE GFS REMAINS 
COOLER.  DGEX AND WPC LEANING TOWARD MODEL BLEND.  EITHER 
WAY...WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  APPROACHING 
UPSTREAM TROF AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY RETURN THUNDER 
TO THE AREA AROUND MONDAY...MAY 4TH. CPC 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE 
OUTLOOK HAS GREATER LIKLIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SPREADING INTO 
WI FOR THE PERIOD MAY 2-8. 

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF KENOSHA BY LATE 
AFTERNOON...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
REGION. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNSET...WITH VFR 
CATEGORY CEILINGS.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS 
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 1500 
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL MAY LINGER AROUND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT...BUT NOT 
ENOUGH OF A WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE FROM THE SURFACE TO REQUIRE LOW 
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION IN TAFS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY 
AT THE EASTERN SITES AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES 
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME MIXING NEAR THE SHORELINE RESULTING 
IN NORTHEAST GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AT MARINE OBSERVATION 
SITES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND MIXING SUBSIDES. 

THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET FOR MOST 
OF TONIGHT. WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT...PERHAPS A COUPLE 
HOURS EARLIER THAN THE 12Z EXPIRATION TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE NEED FOR AN EARLIER ENDING 
TIME.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...  

WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LMZ643>646 UNTIL 12Z/26. 
 
$$ 
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 251551 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1051 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...

MESOSCALE MODELS AND UPDATED SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH...AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE...REMAINS IN
THIS AREA. 

SEEING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SO
WILL ADJUST POPS FOR THOSE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL LEAVE IN
GENERALLY LOWER END POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO MIDDLE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRENDING DRY TOWARD SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY
SEEING SOME BREAKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 

EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 40S LAKESIDE...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST...WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY
OCCUR LATER TODAY. MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGHS SOME MORE IN THE SOUTH
WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER.

WOOD

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MAY SEE LIGHT SHOWERS AT KENOSHA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LOWER CHANCES AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. GUSTY EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS WITH SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CATEGORY
CEILINGS.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 1500 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL MAY LINGER AROUND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE FROM THE SURFACE TO REQUIRE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION IN TAFS.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

WOOD

&&

.MARINE...

SEVERAL VESSELS PARKED IN MILWAUKEE AND RACINE HARBORS REPORTING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 18 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE ENE THIS MORNING.
FURTHER TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TODAY AS
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM MISSOURI E-SE TOWARD TN VALLEY REGION.

HOWEVER...BOTH RAP AND 12Z NAM12 SHOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING ALONG LAKE MI WEST COAST THIS AFTN WHICH COULD PARTIALLY
BE A RESULT OF COLD LAKE MI TEMPS. RETURN OF MODIS IMAGERY
MEASURED LAKE MI SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S ON FRI.

WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY WITH SRN ZONES LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 22KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT N TO NE FETCH WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET OVER ALL OF THE NEARSHORE. MAY BE ABLE TO
TRIM BACK END TIME OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY WITH NEW AFTN FORECAST AS
WINDS AND WAVES LIKELY TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/ 

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. 

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS...
REACHING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY EVENING. AS IT DOES THE UPPER
JET IS SUPPRESSED SOUTH...WHILE THE MAIN JET MAX MOVES OFF TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH AS 500 MB
PUSHES MAINLY EAST BEFORE THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND SOUTHEAST CANADA
TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHEAST.
MOST OF THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
ILLINOIS BORDER TODAY.
 
THE 700 MB RH IS SATURATED ALONG THE SOUTH TIER OF COUNTIES THIS 
MORNING...THEN DRIES FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY 
TONIGHT. THE 850 MB RH DRIES THIS MORNING NORTH AREAS...THEN ACROSS 
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB LOW WEAKENS AND ELONGATES AS IT 
MOVES EAST...THEN SAGGING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.  THE EAST 850 MB 
WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THEY TURN 
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THIS 
MORNING...BUT REMAIN MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND KENTUCKY REGION 
TODAY MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN.  THE NAM...HRRR AND 
THE ARW HIGH RES MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY SOUTH OF 
WISCONSIN...ALTHOUGH THE ARW NMN DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION 
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND A BIT MORE NORTH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  

THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE MODELS...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF A 
BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM.  WILL BE CUTTING BACK ON POP 
VALUES...ESPECIALLY NORTH HALF TODAY.  

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY AIR AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NOSE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES 
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SPRAWLING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND 
SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE UPPER 
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING A PLEASANT 
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WI. THERE WILL BE A STEADY BREEZE OUT 
OF THE NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD... BUT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WE CAN EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. INLAND 
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD WHILE LAKESHORE 
TEMPS WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S. 

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI TUE AFTERNOON/ 
EVENING. THE ECMWF ALLOWS THIS SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED 
UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT INTO 
THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON THE HEELS OF AN EXITING UPPER LOW. THE GFS 
IS MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT/WED WHILE THE ECMWF IS 
SHOWING LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN WI. THUS... KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN 
THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE ECWMF IS SHOWING A MORE ZONAL UPPER JET ALONG THE US/CANADIAN 
BORDER THU NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING A LARGER RIDGE 
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THE GFS IS QUICKEST TO DRAW 
VERY WARM AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS DELAYED 
WITH THE WARMING SINCE IT IS SHOWING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND AGAIN 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. IF 
THE GFS PANS OUT... MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR NEXT 
WEEKEND.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND KENTUCKY REGION 
TODAY MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN.  

MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH 
TOWARDS THE ILLINOIS BORDER...AND ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.  CIGS WILL 
RISE AND CLOUDS CLEAR FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST 
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. 

MARINE...

EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY INTO THIS 
EVENING.  RESULTING PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BRING WAVES 
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN 
EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ SUNDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 202129
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
129 PM AKDT MON APR 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE SHORT TERM AT TO AROUND 60 HOURS.
START SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS BEYOND 90 HOURS.
WILL LEAN ON A BLEND OF THE GFS...NAM...AND SREF FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...503 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL
MOVE NORTH OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE ALASKA
RANGE THIS EVENING...AND OVER THE BROOKS RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING
AS A 524 DAM LOW DEVELOPS...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN NORTH OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN OVER THE BROOKS RANGE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 519 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND TUESDAY EVENING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH THURSDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE
AROUND THE LOW OVER THE WEST COAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN
PROVINCES.

SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE STATE
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COMPLEX LOW SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL CENTERS
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
BEING ABSORBED BY A 974 MB LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING
SEA TUESDAY EVENING. A 1003 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE
TO 200NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT AT 985 MB...THEN
CONTINUE EAST TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
A 998 MB LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO BE OVER BARTER ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING AT
997 MB. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
PUSH NORTH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING AND OVER
THE EASTERN ARCTIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A 1017 MB HIGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER
YUKON WILL MAKE THINGS INTERESTING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON THE
EASTERN COAST. AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH OVER BARTER ISLAND BY
TUESDAY MORNING WINDS FROM BARROW EAST WILL SNAP AROUND TO
NORTHWEST FOR A TIME THEN SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH IN TO THE ARCTIC. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER
DEADHORSE AND KUPARUK AREAS WITH A COUPLE INCHES AS THE LOW MOVES
JUST EAST OF THERE. THE BROOKS RANGE WILL SEE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW
THAT COULD PILE UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT COOL OFF
EXPECTED. GOES MVFR PROBABILITY AT 20/1730Z CORRELATES WELL WITH
THE SPORT MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS AT 20/1529Z. BAND OF STRATUS
OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST NOT MOVING MUCH AND NOT EXPECTING IT TO. 

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WITH THE LOW COMPLEX REMAINING
OVER THE AREA...EXPECT BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS...BUT TIMING THEM WILL BE DIFFICULT. BROAD AREA OF
MVFR ON THE GOES PROBABILITY AT 20/1730Z CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON THE
SPORT MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS AT 20/1529Z. WITH THE LOW SYSTEM
QUASI STATIONARY...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
COASTAL AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE SOME CLEARING TODAY AS
SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES NORTH OVER THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY
OFFSHORE AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON THE COAST...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER YUKON
DELTA WINDS SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE VARIABLE
WINDS TO 10 MPH. SOME COOLING OVER THE AREA WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
DOWNS A FEW DEGREES...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
AREA.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MIGHT GET A LITTLE INTERESTING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THE MIDDLE YUKON
VALLEY HAD AROUND 100 LIGHTING STRIKES YESTERDAY AND THAT HAS
MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE DIFFERENCE IS SOME
MODIFICATION OF THAT AIRMASS COULD HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THE INTERIOR TONIGHT
WITH MOST OF THAT ENDING BY TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGING BUILDING
NORTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BRING CLEARING AND
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRIER CONDITIONS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE DAYS.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOR DAYS 5 TO 8...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVER THE STATE. RIDGING OVER CANADA WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY IN THE INTERIOR AS PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WEAK INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...THEN RIDGING OVER
THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE
HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT
SOME WINDS NEAR PASSES IN THE ALASKA RANGE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 20
TO 35 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BUT ABOVE 30 PERCENT
TUESDAY BUT EXPECT THEM TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

SDB APR 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 162106
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
106 PM AKDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. AT 500
HPA THEY ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 72 HOURS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 519 DAM LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL
DISSIPATE AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH AND DISSIPATES
IN THE BUILDING RIDGE. 510 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER CHUKOTKA WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AS A 508 DAM LOW
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH 544 HEIGHTS OVER THE
FAIRBANKS AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 120 KT JET DIVES INTO THE
BASE OF THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS TO
503 DAM AS IT MOVES OVER SAND POINT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW THEN MOVES OVER BRISTOL BAY BY SUNDAY MORNING AS BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE STATE. AT 850 HPA...NOT
MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR TO AROUND 4 CELSIUS ABOVE.
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ARCTIC COAST TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO 3
TO 6 BELOW CELSIUS.

SURFACE...WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE. A 999
MB LOW OVER COOK INLET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE MIDDLE KOYUKUK RIVER BASIN FRIDAY MORNING.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A 975 MB LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL
MOVE OVER THE STATE BEHIND THE DISSIPATING LOW. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK CHINOOK FLOW
DEVELOPING...FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE INTERIOR TODAY WILL SPREAD SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. NEXT FRONT WILL BE PRETTY DRY IN THE
INTERIOR WITH THE CHINOOK FLOW SO MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE WEST COAST WILL SEE SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH UP THE COAST.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...QUIET PERIOD WITH NOT MUCH WIND
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS AT 16/1416Z SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT BAND OF STRATUS THAT STRETCHES FROM BANKS ISLAND
CANADA TO THE CHUKCHI SEA. MOVEMENT IS FROM EAST TO WEST. LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BE BREAKING UP OVER MACKENZIE BAY SO BY TOMORROW
MORNING WE COULD SEE SOME CLEARING FROM THE EAST...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY BUYING INTO THAT SO WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE. WINDS
GENERALLY EAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURES.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...QUIET OUT HERE FOR NOW. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS IN THE MCGRATH AREA AND THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AS
THE FRONT AND LOW OVER COOK INLET MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEXT 24 HOURS. NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY BY FRIDAY EVENING SPREADING
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SNOW...TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN OVER NORTON SOUND AND ONTO THE SEWARD
PENINSULA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA WITH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME CHINOOK WINDS
NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS GUSTING
TO AROUND 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING MUCH NEXT 36
HOURS...THEN WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION.

INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR...MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLEARING
FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. CHINOOK SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH NEAR THE ALASKA
RANGE PASSES AND DELTA JUNCTION. WINDS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
INTERIOR WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH FROM THE SOUTH. 

&&

FIRE WEATHER...A FEW AREAS WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROP BELOW
30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOONS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE WILL CREATE NEAR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME FUELS ARE NOT CONSIDERED TO BE
BURNABLE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

&&

$$

SDB APR 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 150853
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
453 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS 
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  

PROMINENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PERSISTS 
INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. RETURN SSE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH 
PRES RDG AXIS AND MIXING AT OR ABOVE 850 MB WILL RESULT IN HIGHS 
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER 
THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. SSE WINDS MAY ALSO GUST CLOSE TO 20 MPH 
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. 
TODAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH/S AND THUS ELEVATED 
FIRE WX CONCERNS AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS 
FOR GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. COMBINATION OF SSE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING 
TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND 
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT OVER THE 
INTERIOR WEST HALF AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT INTERIOR EAST HALF WILL 
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. 

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP LOWER LEVELS A 
BIT MORE MIXED TONIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN WILL RESULT IN POOR RH 
RECOVERY AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 20S. UNDER CLEAR 
SKIES...EXPECT AREAS OF THE WEST TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 PERCENT MAX 
RH TONIGHT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE FAR WEST MAY NOT REACH 50 
PERCENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED 
EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. GIVEN EXPECTED LOW DEWPOINTS 
TONIGHT UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWATS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN .25 INCH 
FOR ALL BUT MAYBE FAR WEST TONIGHT) WENT WITH COOLER SIDE OF MODEL 
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS LEANING CLOSER TO HI RES CANADIAN MODEL WHICH 
HIGHLIGHTS MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER TYPICAL COLD SPOTS 
WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

PLETHORA OF SUBTLE FEATURES THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR 
ANY BIGGER IMPACT WEATHER WITH ANY OF THEM LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH. 
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH DEEP TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF OVER 
SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS SHEARING APART AS IT 
LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE AREA FIRST PART OF THE WEEK REMAINS DOMINANT SFC FEATURE
WITH DRY AIR PROHIBITING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CWA ON THURSDAY 
AS THE LEAD WAVE CROSSES SW-NE ACROSS MICHIGAN. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE 
IN SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE H8 WITH ENOUGH LIFT 
TO GENERATE QPF. MAINLY EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO STAY EAST 
THOUGH. COULD ALSO BE SHRA OVER FAR WEST CWA LATE ON THURSDAY OR 
THURSDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PROCESS OF 
WASHING OUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE H7 ADVECTS IN FM SW. 
MOST LIKELY IT WILL STAY DRY...SO WILL CARRY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT 
CHANCE. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRADUALLY WARM OVER PREVIOUS DAYS 
SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCE 
OF TEMPS THAT WARM ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTH AS THAT AREA WILL SEE 
LESS COOLING OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE TROUGH PASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET 
WEATHER SHOULD RESULT. TEMPS SATURDAY CHILLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH 
GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. USED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS 
FORECAST WITH MID 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE AND AS WARM 
AS 60 DEGREES NEAR WI BORDER. GIVEN THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MIN TEMPS 
COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND. 

BY LATE WEEKEND ATTN TURNS TO UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS 
AND POTENTIAL MERGER OF THIS LOW WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN 
STREAM. AT LEAST FOR NOW...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PHASING BUT 
RESULTING LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEVER REALLY WRAPS UP ENOUGH 
TO CAUSE STRONG SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER 
GREAT LAKES. CONSISTENCY WITH THAT SOLUTION IS POOR THOUGH SO ONLY 
MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO CONSENSUS FORECAST. BASICALLY WENT FOR THE IDEA 
THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE UNSETTLED WITH LARGE UPPER LOW 
VCNTY OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. BECOMES COLD ENOUGH BEHIND WHAT EVER SFC 
LOW FORMS TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY 
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT 
MORE SHOWERLY TYPE MODE TO RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY. TEMPS OVER HIGHER 
TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STAY IN THE 30S...WITH 
TEMPS ELSEWHERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS 
IN STORE SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS 
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL 
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015 

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO 
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK...MAINLY LOOKING AT A 
HANDFULL OF BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW-
END ADVSIORIES. AS OF THIS MORNING...ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE 
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES /AFFECTING THE GAGES 
NEAR ALSTON AND CHASSELL/...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY...AND THE 
STURGEON RIVER IN ALGER AND DELTA COUNTIES AFFECTING THE GAGE AT 
NAHMA JUNCTION. MODIS SATELLITE FM TUESDAY SHOWED SNOW STILL ON 
GROUND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FM PORCUPINE MTS OVER REST OF KEWEENAW 
PENINSULA. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MICHIGAMME 
HIGHLANDS IN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES AND STILL A LOT OF SNOW 
LEFT ON THE GROUND IN THE NW SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN CWA. BASED ON 
WHERE SNOW COVER IS LEFT AND MORE MELTING TO COME...RIVERS WILL 
REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...JLA


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 140929
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
529 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SLIDES 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER 
WILL RESULT. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS 
SPILLING IN LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON MIXING HEIGHTS ON MONDAY AND 
FORECAST MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY ALONG WITH ACTUAL OBSERVED TEMPS ON 
MONDAY...NUDGED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MAINLY EAST HALF OF CWA. HIGH 
OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN LATE MORNING/AFTN LAKE BREEZES...BUT TEMPS 
SHOULD SURGE QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE COOLING KICKS IN THIS 
AFTN. WARM TEMPS TODAY WILL WORK TO CONTINUE MELTING LINGERING
SNOWPACK/KEEP SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS AROUND BANKFULL /SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS/. WARM TEMPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE DRYING TREND
THAT STARTED ON MONDAY AFTN. RH VALUES THIS AFTN BOTTOM OUT WELL BLO
20 PCT OVER MUCH OF CWA...PERHAPS EVEN AS LOW AS 10 PCT. WINDS IN
THE MIXING LAYER STEADILY DIMINISH THOUGH BLO 15 MPH AS THE HIGH
DRAWS CLOSER. SO DESPITE THE DRYING CONDITIONS AND TEMPS UPWARD OF
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES 
SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK.

DESPITE A WEAK GRADIENT OVERHEAD NOW...TEMPS OVER INTERIOR WEST AND 
EAST EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY...AS LOW AS MID 20S IN 
ISOLD LOCATIONS OF THE WEST. EVEN LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT SO LOWERED 
TEMPS MORE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR EAST CLOSER TO DEPARTING 
LOW PWAT DOWN AROUND 0.10 INCH. WARMEST TEMPS TONIGHT OUT WEST CWA 
AS LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

MILD AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE 
WEEK BEFORE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE 
STREAKS ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA.  

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FM THE 
NRN PLAINS AND PERSISTS AT LEAST INTO WED NIGHT. RETURN SOUTHERLY 
FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ABOUT 3-5F WARMER ON WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY. 
GOOD MIXING INTO A DECENT INVERSION BTWN 800-850 MB SHOULD YIELD SSE 
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA 
IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...MODIS IMAGE INDICATES SNOWPACK IS 
BASICALLY GONE OVER SRN HALF OF UPPER MI AND IS MELTING FAST OVER 
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH GIVEN RECENT SPELL OF WARM WEATHER.  
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH/S AND THUS 
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICES REACH 
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. COMBINATION OF SSE WINDS 10 
TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 15F 
ABOVE AVERAGE...AND AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO 15 
TO 20 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS AS MANY 
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE ALREADY LOST THEIR SNOWPACK. 

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS MID-LVL RDG AXIS MOVES EAST ON THU 
MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SRN PLAINS WILL 
LIFT NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER 
WEAK SHORTWAVE STREAKING ACROSS NRN MANITOBA AND NRN ONTARIO. MOST 
MODELS INDICATE ASSOC SFC TROF WILL DRAW NEAR THE WRN FCST AREA THU 
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO SHOW BETTER GULF MOISTURE STAYING 
SOUTH OF THE UPPER LAKES BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARRIVE. 
ADDITIONALLY...THE BETTER FORCING FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN 
UPPER JET STREAK AND DEEPER MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV REMAINS NORTH OF THE 
FCST AREA. ALL THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE ANTECEDENT VERY DRY 
LOW LEVELS...WL LIMIT CHCS FOR RAIN THU INTO THU NIGHT SO 
HAVE ELECTED TO PULL SLIGHT CHC POPS FM FCST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS STILL SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE 
DIGGING DOWN FM SCNTRL CANADA FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. 
MODELS GENERALLY TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH SHORTWAVE 
TRACK AND ASSOC DYNAMICS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECMWF. 00Z GFS 
AND GEM-NH STILL SHOW ENOUGH WEAK DYNAMICS ACROSS AREA TO 
GENERATE LIGHT SHRA ALONG ASSOC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WL KEEP CHC 
POPS IN FCST. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 
WAKE OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC 
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD IN SAT AFTERNOON IN 
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE NRN ROCKY MTN REGION. 
TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH NW FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR BUT STILL EXPECT INLAND HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 50S.

MODELS SHOW NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARD THE WRN 
GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 
GFS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PHASED LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING 
OVER THE WRN LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS REMNANTS OF SRN 
PLAINS CLOSED LOW EJECT NORTH AND INTERACT WITH ADVANCING MID-LVL 
TROF/SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STILL SOME MODEL TIMING 
ISSUES AS THE 00Z GFS IS QUICKER THAN 00Z ECMWF WITH TROF ADVANCING 
FROM THE WEST. ALSO 00Z GEM-NH NOT SHOWING PHASING/INTERACTION OF 
SHORTWAVES AS ADVERTISED BY ECMWF AND GFS. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES 
AND UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN NIGHT 
INCREASING TO CHC POPS BY MONDAY WHEN MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW BETTER 
FORCING/DYNAMICS/MOISTURE INFLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING MID-LVL TROF. 
DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF PHASING WITH SYSTEM AND STRENGTH OF SFC 
LOW...THERE COULD BE PTYPE ISSUES AS COLDER AIR BEING DRWAN IN FM 
THE NORTH CHANGES RAIN OVER TO SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY NIGHT 
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL 
SITES WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. SAW GETS A LAKE BREEZE TO MOVE 
THROUGH BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SWITCH THEIR WIND TO THE 
NORTHEAST UNTIL SUNSET WITH LIGHT WINDS THEREAFTER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING WEST WINDS TO 25 KTS THIS MORNING...HIGH 
PRES CROSSING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. 
BEYOND TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH 
SATURDAY AS EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH...THE OVERALL 
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

IN LAST 12-18HRS...FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TRAP 
ROCK RIVER IN HOUGHTON COUNTY...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER IN HARVEY...AND 
THE STURGEON RIVER AT NAHMA JUNCTION FOR RIVER LEVELS REACHING ABOVE 
BANKFULL. THERE IS ALSO A HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT EFFECTIVE FOR THE 
STURGEON RIVER NEAR ALSTON FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS MAINLY IN BARAGA  
COUNTY FROM THE PRICKETT DAM DOWNSTREAM TO THE CONFLUENCE WITH 
OUTFLOW FROM OTTER LAKE DAM. AT THIS TIME...THE STURGEON RIVER LOOKS 
LIKE IT WILL REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL. 

ALONG WITH THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA AND HOUGHTON COUNTIES...THE 
ESCANABA RIVER WILL ALSO APPROACH BANKFULL STAGE IN SOME SPOTS MID-
WEEK...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT THE HEADWATERS OF THESE RIVER 
HAVE THE MOST SNOW. THE MICHIGAMME RIVER ALSO HAS GREATER SNOWPACK 
IN THE HEADWATERS REGION OF THE PESHEKEE RIVER...BUT IT SHOULD TAKE 
LONGER FOR THAT WATER TO REACH LOWER SECTIONS OF THE RIVER MORE 
PRONE TO FLOODING. STILL...NOT SEEING ANYTHING SUGGESTING MORE THAN 
ACTION STAGE POSSIBLE ON THE MICHIGAMME RIVER. OVERALL...NOT 
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...VOSS


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KGGW 202020
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
220 PM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
CAUGHT BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HAVE HAD A BAND OF LOWER
CLOUDS SNEAK IN FROM THE NORTH BUT THEY NOT HAD MUCH SOUTHWESTWARD
EXTENT TODAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THOSE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS
EVENING WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF LOWER TO MID CLOUDS COMING IN AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT.

WE HAVE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR NE CORNER.
OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ITS THE CALM
BEFORE THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY STORM.

OF INTEREST IS THE MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE ICE ROTTING
PRETTY QUICKLY ON FORT PECK LAKE. WITH TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER
50S AND 60S ALONG THE LAKE TOMORROW WE MAY SEE MOST OF THE ICE
GONE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL ON TOP OF ANY REMAINING ICE. FRANSEN


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... 
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES ON WITH A MORE NORTHWARD
SOLUTION FOR A SHORTWAVE...TRACKING NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LEADS TO A
WARMER SOLUTION AND MORE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY BE LOADED WITH WATER SO GETTING
PRECIPITATION TYPE RIGHT IS OF THE ESSENCE. NAM BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 0.75 INCHES
SATURDAY EVENING WHICH IS APPROACHING +3SD FROM CLIMO...INDICATIVE
OF A VERY MOIST COLUMN. DO BELIEVE THERMAL PROFILES ARE COLD
ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX OR EVEN SNOW OVER TOWARD PLENTYWOOD BUT
WITH A WARM GROUND ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO MIGHT THE BE
UPWARD EXTEND.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL OFFER A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRINGS SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION AND THUS DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. OF CONCERN IS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...AND EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY INTO
THE DAKOTAS. 

THERE EXISTS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM.
THE NEW GFS HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE...HAVING A NARROWER BAND
OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER QPF. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE IS FAR MORE
ROBUST WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY AMOUNTS OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THE MOST INTENSE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERMAL PROFILES
APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. TO THE NORTH THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX OR EVEN
ACCUMULATING SNOW. AS MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONTINUITY IMPROVES WITH
THIS SYSTEM CONFIDENCE WILL IMPROVE. FOR NOW TOO MANY QUESTIONS
REMAIN TO OFFER MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPECIFICS BUT THOSE WITH
INTERESTS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...INCLUDING THOSE INVOLVED WITH
CALVING...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST. 

GIVEN THE FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE
MIDWEEK...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST BEYOND
WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK THEREFORE STANDS
AND REMAINS AS DESCRIBED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXITS
NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ON MONDAY.

THE MOST IMPACTFUL PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE
MILES CITY...GLENDIVE...BAKER AREA ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE WITH SHOWING THIS TO BE AN ACTIVE AND WET SYSTEM
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AS DAILY
LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN THAWING AND
FREEZING LEVELS...THIS COULD BE A COMPLICATED MIXED-PRECIP EVENT.
SINCE GROUND TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY THAWED THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ANY SNOWFALL WOULD TAKE A WHILE TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING. THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE SHOWS THE MOST COMPLICATED PERIOD TO BE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...SNOW AND RAIN ALL POSSIBLE. USED THE POTENTIAL
WEATHER TOOLS TO TRY AND DEPICT THIS WITH SOME DETAIL...BUT GFS
IS THE ONLY MODEL TO USE THIS FAR OUT. WITH A VERY CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH TO PRECIP AMOUNTS AND SNOW RATIOS...SNOW UP TO 3 OR 4 INCHES
COULD ACCUMULATE FOR SOME OF OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS. FREEZING RAIN
AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN DURING THIS TIME AS
POTENTIAL TO PROCEDURES GENERATE 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH OF ICE ALSO
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...THIS ACTIVE TROUGH ALSO DROPS AN
ADDITIONAL LOBE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND KEEPS US IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN...ALBEIT WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. 

GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT IS IN PLACE FOR A CLEARING RIDGE TO MOVE
OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR-VFR

SYNOPSIS: LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ND WITH AN INVERTED TROF INTO
NE MONTANA IS BRINGING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST INCREASING FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
15 TO 25KT RANGE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A LOWER CLOUD DECK IS COMING ACROSS THE
BORDER AS WELL AND MOVING SOUTHWARD. THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING
THIS LOWER CLOUD DECK VERY WELL.  FRANSEN


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 201025
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
225 AM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS AND THEY HAVE BEEN
HANDLING THE SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT QUITE WELL OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS. NOT GOING TO CHANGE THE APPROACH TO THE FORECAST OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SO WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE
CURRENT DATABASE AND A 50/50 BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING EXTENDS WEST FROM OLD CROW YUKON TO
ANAKTUVUK PASS THEN SOUTHWEST TO NOME THEN OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL ROTATE NORTH OVER THE
NEAR SHORE ARCTIC WATERS THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE LIES FROM OVER
DILLINGHAM TO GALENA TO BETTLES THIS MORNING AND WILL SPLIT WITH
THE SOUTHERN HALF ROTATING INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND THE
NORTHERN HALF MOVING NORTHWEST TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST
THIS EVENING. A SECOND RIDGE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIE FROM
OVER OLD CROW TO CORDOVA THIS MORNING AND MOVE TO LIE FROM
KAKTOVIK TO LIVENGOOD TO HOMER BY THIS EVENING...THEN FROM
DEADHORSE TO RUBY TO ILIAMNA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN REMAINS
STATIONARY AND WEAKENS. A 536 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY TODAY AND MOVE TO THE ALCAN BORDER
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTH TO THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER THE ALCAN BORDER TO OVER KAKTOVIK BY SUNDAY
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS. A 513 DAM
STACKED LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY IS FINALLY ON THE MOVE AND WILL
CONTINUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE NORTH TO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA SATURDAY EVENING. A 525 DAM LOW IN THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST GULF THIS EVENING THEN MERGE
WITH THE LOW OVER THE YUKON FLATS. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SUNDAY. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT ZERO TO 5 BELOW AND DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY THEN SO SLIGHT COOLING
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.

SURFACE...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES UNDER THE BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST WITH WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC
PLAINS. THE PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE MUDDLED AS WE GET INTO THE
WEEKEND AND WEAK HIGHS AND LOWS DEVELOP OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.
A LITTLE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...BERING
STRAIT...AND CHUKCHI SEA. A 1010 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
ARCTIC PLAIN SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE TO 150 NM NORTH OF
WAINWRIGHT BY SUNDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST AS THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS PERSISTING
OVER MOST AREAS AT 10 TO 25 MPH THIS MORNING INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 30 MPH AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC
STRENGTHENS TODAY...THEN WEAKENS SATURDAY TO 10 TO 20 MPH. A FEW
FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW EXPECTED. THE
MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 20/0535Z IS SHOWING
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OR FOG OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND COAST THIS
MORNING AND GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM
IT IS MOSTLY MVFR CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 2000 FT.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...DECAYING FRONT REMAINS OVER
COASTAL AREA WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS. SOME CLEARING INLAND. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA WILL HELP KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND...BUT ONLY EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA
AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY...BUT
WEAK COOLING WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO AS WE
MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH MOST
AREAS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE BERING STRAIT...ON ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND NORTH OF KIVALINA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE
BERING STRAIT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CONTINUED WARM AND SUNNY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS AGAIN TODAY AS THEY ARE
BEING DRIVEN BY THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE MORE THAN THE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. SOME CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S FOR
MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH
ELSEWHERE.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...EXTENDED MODELS ARE
QUITE A MESS SO WILL LEAN ON THE WPC GUIDANCE AND USE A BLEND OF
MODELS. THE ONE THING THAT STANDS OUT IS THAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE SO WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

$$

SDB MAR 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 191006
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
206 AM AKDT THU MAR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS OR SO. CONTINUITY
REMAINS GOOD AND THE 00Z RUNS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE
CURRENT DATABASE AND A 50/50 BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING EXTENDS WEST FROM CANADA THE
INTERIOR THIS MORNING WITH A 544 DAM HIGH OVER YUKON
TERRITORY...THE RIDGING WILL SLIDE NORTH OVER THE BROOKS RANGE
TODAY AS A 544 DAM HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON
TERRITORY...THEN OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING AND OVER
THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OVER
THE CANADIAN ARCTIC COAST. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO LIE FROM OVER BUCKLAND
TO ANAKTUVUK PASS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN UP OVER THE ARCTIC BY LATE
FRIDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE A BRANCH OF THE RIDGE OVER
THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL ROTATE TO LIE OVER KAKTOVIK TO EIELSON
TO ANCHORAGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FROM DEADHORSE TO HUSLIA
TO ANVIK BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE. A 535 AM LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE
TO THE ALCAN BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTH OVER THE ALCAN
BORDER TO OVER KAKTOVIK BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS. A 510 DAM STACKED LOW
REMAINS ANCHORED SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ISLANDS THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST. A 523 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND
MOVE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY SATURDAY MORNING. AT 850
HPA...TEMPERATURES INITIALIZE AROUND 2 CELSIUS WARMER THAN THE
MODELS AT 00Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START COOLING TODAY AND
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING BY LATE
THURSDAY.

SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AROUND A 982 MB LOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SURFACE
PATTERN. WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC
PLAINS CONTINUES. 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
PERSISTS AND IS GETTING SOME HELP FROM A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ARCTIC AND CHUKCHI SEA. RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND TO
THE EAST TODAY WITH THE HIGH CENTER MOVING TO 77N 157W BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK TROUGHING AND EASTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
MPH...EXCEPT ON THE NORTHWEST COAST WHICH WILL SEE WINDS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH IN AREAS SOUTH OF WAINWRIGHT BEGINNING FRIDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE. THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 19/0629Z IS
SHOWING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG BASICALLY FROM THE DALTON HIGHWAY WEST.
THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE IT IS
MOSTLY MVFR CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FT.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE WEAK DECAYING FRONT HANGING AROUND THE AREA. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WITH IT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW FLURRIES...MAINLY SOUTH OF
NORTON SOUND. WINDS NORTHEAST TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...BUT OVER
THE BERING STRAIT...ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND NORTH OF
KIVALINA WINDS OF 20 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR AND SUNNY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALSO...CONTINUED WARM...BUT
NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. HIGHS STILL REACHING INTO THE 30S AND
40S SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER AND INTO THE 20S TO THE NORTH. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TANANA VALLEY...WITH
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH ELSEWHERE. 

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK ON THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
INDICATING A DRY PATTERN OVER THE INTERIOR WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. 

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

$$

SDB MAR 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 180941
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
141 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 60 HOURS OR SO.
RUN TO RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD AS WELL AND THE 00Z
RUNS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE TODAY
AND A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING EXTENDS WEST FROM CANADA OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE THIS MORNING AND WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE BY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A 544 DAM HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
YUKON TERRITORY...THEN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND. A 507 DAM STACKED
LOW CONTINUES TO ANCHOR ITSELF SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. A 521 DAM LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING.
AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES INITIALIZE FAIRLY WELL AT 00Z BEING
ONLY AROUND 1 DEGREE TOO COLD. EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO AROUND ZERO TODAY IN THE INTERIOR WITH
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE ARCTIC OR ON THE
WEST COAST.

SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AROUND A 976 MB LOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SURFACE
PATTERN. LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC PLAINS NOT
AS STRONG AS THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT IT WILL CONTINUE. 1025 MB HIGH
OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY WITH SOME
REENFORCEMENT FROM A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC AND
CHUKCHI SEA. 1014 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC TODAY. WEAK
CHINOOK FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE AREA AND
THE THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 17/0547Z IS SHOWING
A BIG PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE COAST. THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS
AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATING IT IS MOSTLY MVFR CLOUDS SINCE MOST
OBSERVATIONS SHOW NOT FOG IN THE AREA. EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES OVER
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH HANGS AROUND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 MPH NEXT 24 HOURS. 

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FRONTAL BAND WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY FROM THE NORTON SOUND REGION SOUTH THIS
MORNING...WILL SPREAD A PERIOD OF SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
AREA. ACCUMULATION WILL BE AT MOST AROUND 1 INCH. A FEW FLURRIES
NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA THIS MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL BE
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH
WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING NEAR THE BERING STRAIT...ON ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND...AND NORTH OF KIVALINA. WINDS IN THOSE AREAS WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 45 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WARMER AGAIN TODAY AS WE SEE
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE WHERE WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WITH THE WEAK CHINOOK FLOW.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...MODELS STILL INDICATING
DEVELOPMENT OF LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE STATE BY MIDWEEK AND THE
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS IS GETTING CLOSER. WILL AGAIN OPT ON USING
A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO AVERAGE THAT TIMING OUT AND SOFTEN THE
FEATURES A LITTLE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

&&

$$

SDB MAR 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 171011
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
211 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM. AND THERE
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THE 00Z RUNS
AGAIN INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER EXTENDS NORTH
OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY. A SHORTWAVE WORKING NORTH ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA THIS
MORNING LIES FROM NORTON SOUND TO ANAKTUVUK PASS TO EAGLE THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDS WEST FROM
CANADA AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SLIDE NORTH OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING...OVER THE ALASKA RANGE BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A 544
DAM HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY...THEN OVER
THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO
SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND. A 507 DAM STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO ANCHOR
ITSELF NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND WILL
PERSIST IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES
DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL AND WERE ABOUT 10 CELSIUS TOO COLD IN THE
INTERIOR AND AROUND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS TOO COOL ON THE WEST COAST.
MODELS DO WARM PRETTY RAPIDLY SO THEY SHOULD CATCH UP BUT EXPECT
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN REALITY TODAY. 

SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AROUND A 976 MB LOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK
RIDGING WILL NUDGE INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY...BUT WITH
LITTLE IMPACT. A 1025 MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA AND PERSIST. A 1008 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL
MOVE NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC TODAY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH
ARCTIC TONIGHT. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAK LEESIDE TROUGHING WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF THE RANGES AND WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL HANG ON. 

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...RIDGING OFFSHORE WITH WEAK
TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS AND COAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. A FEW FLURRIES OR EVEN A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW AS THE DECAYING FRONTS MOVE OVER THE AREA AND DISSIPATE. NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS
PRODUCT AT 17/0820Z NOT SHOWING SOME STRATIFIED CLOUDS MOVING OVER
THE AREA BUT THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS INDICATE THEY ARE
PRETTY HIGH BASED.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...TODAY WILL BRING A FEW MORE
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH NOT AS MUCH
AS YESTERDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE
HEAVIEST AREAS IN THE NULATO HILLS. SNOWFALL GENERALLY CONFINED TO
WEST AND NORTH OF RUBY TODAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA UP TO 20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS BUT SOME AREAS IN THE
NULATO HILLS COULD SEE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN
COOL TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CONTINUED WARMING TODAY WITH THE
WEAK CHINOOK FLOW ACROSS THE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST AREAS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
EXCEPT IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND ON THE TANANA FLATS WHERE GUSTY
WINDS TO 25 MPH WILL PERSIST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPRINKLE...BUT EXPECT SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...MODELS ARE MOVING THE
LOW NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SOUTHEAST WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WEST
COAST BY SUNDAY. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DOING THIS WITH
THE ECMWF LAGGING SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL OPT ON USING A BLEND OF THE
MODELS TO AVERAGE THAT TIMING OUT AND SOFTEN THE FEATURES A
LITTLE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB MAR 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 161146
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
346 AM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THEY ARE A LITTLE
FUZZY ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE 00Z RUNS
INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. 

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING RUNS SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE STATE AND WILL SLIDE NORTH AND EAST TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH A QUASI STATIONARY 508 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS PUSHES UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING TO LIE OVER
THE INTERIOR BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE A WEAK
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST BY NOON TUESDAY THEN
ROTATE NORTH OVER THE INTERIOR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A 545 DAM
HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE RIDGING OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL SLOWLY SLIDE NORTH TO BE OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING REMAINING NORTH OF THE ALASKA
RANGE. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 7 CELSIUS
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE AREA TO AROUND ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. THEN COOL SLIGHTLY TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WE GET ANOTHER SHOT OF WARM AIR WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO 2 TO 4 ABOVE CELSIUS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD ON...BUT THE END IS NEAR AS
THE 979 MB LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR CONTINUE TO SPIN FRONTAL BANDS
NORTH. LEESIDE TROUGHING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY WILL
PERSIST WITH WEAK LEESIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN NORTH OF THE ALASKA
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF A BIT...THE TROUGH
THEN STRENGTHENS UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP
STRENGTHEN THE GAP FLOW WINDS AS ANOTHER FRONT SPINS UP TO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL COAST BY MONDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MONDAY EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP UP THE WEST COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. A 1004 MB LOW
DEVELOPS OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES NORTH INTO
THE ARCTIC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR WILL PERSIST OVER THE STATE INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE AND LEESIDE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY. SOME LOCAL GAP
FLOW WINDS IN THE BROOKS RANGE BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE LESS THAN 25
MPH. ON THE COAST EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT AS THE WINDS COME UP A LITTLE THAT
WILL ALL BE PUSHED OFFSHORE. THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS
PRODUCT AT 16/0737Z NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG IN THE AREA AND THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS CONFIRM NO
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF LOW CONDITIONS. DO EXPECT THAT MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE CLOUDS ROLL OVER THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A FEW BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT THAT EACH BAND WILL BRING UP
TO 2 INCHES. ONE OF THE STRONGEST BANDS WILL BE THIS EVENING AND
IT WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE NULATO HILLS AND NORTON SOUND REGION. WITH
THE TROUGH HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE WEEK EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH AT LEAST OCCASIONAL FLURRIES. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF SNOW WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND IT MAY MIX WITH RAIN AS THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE AS THE LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR SLINGS WARM AIR NORTH AND
TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS GET INTO THE
MID 30S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS FROM NORTON SOUND
SOUTH WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO 5 TO 15 MPH...BUT THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET AND WARMING
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY AS HIGHS REACH THE 30S FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF
THE YUKON RIVER AS WEAK CHINOOK FLOW SENDS WARM AIR SURGING
NORTH. DO NOT EXPECT THE FIRST FRONT TO REDEVELOP IN THE BROOKS
RANGE TODAY...BUT THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
TONIGHT AND WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS
RANGE TUESDAY AND MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. CHINOOK WINDS IN
THE ALASKA RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH WITH EACH OF THE
FRONTS...EXPECT A LULL IN THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 225 AND 226 GOING THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALSO A LITTLE TANANA VALLEY JET HAS KICKED WINDS IN THE
FLATS UP TO GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH THIS MORNING AND EXPECT WINDS AT
NENANA TO KICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE DAY. NOT EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION AROUND FAIRBANKS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
GET A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE FRONTS MOVES OVER THE AREA.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...SOME CONSENSUS IN THE
MODELS ON DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE AREA WITH 546
HPA HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND 512 DAM
LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB MAR 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 092008
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
308 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. 

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO PULL 
AWAY TONIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. 
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE 
SHORTWAVE...WITH TEMPS ALOFT INCREASING TOMORROW AS THE WAVE DRAWS 
NEAR. 

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS 
WILL KEEP TEMPS MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH 
MIXING TO KEEP FOG AWAY...BUT SOMETHING TO AT LEAST KEEP AN EYE ON.  

WENT WARMER THAN MOST MODELS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW...AS EVEN THE MILD 
ECMWF IS UNDERCUTTING ACTUAL TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES THIS 
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. KEPT HIGHS COOLER IN THE SOUTH 
WITH THE DEEPER SNOW PACK. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD 
SNOW PACK IS ABOUT GONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST 
AREA. AFTER THE FIRST 50 DEGREE READINGS IN SOME TIME TODAY...COULD 
ALREADY SEE THE FIRST 60 DEGREE READINGS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN 
THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA. 


TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SRN WI WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE NRN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM THAT IS OVER SRN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD. A WEAK
CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TUE NT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR WED. THE COLD ADVECTION IS
WEAK...LEAVING A MILD AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE COLD
LAKE BREEZE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FOR WED NT
AND THU WITH SELY WINDS EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
DUE ELY FOR FRI AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
HAVE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE EASTERN ONE QUARTER OF THE AREA VIA
ONSHORE WINDS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE 50S. LOWER
60S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WI RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM. 

AN UPPER TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE SRN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOR FRI NT AND
SAT. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LGT RAIN CONTINUED TO BE FORECAST OVER FAR
SE WI AS THIS SYSTEM MAP CLIP THE AREA. WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FROM CANADA...NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT. POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST WITH A ROLL OVER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SUN NT WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED INTO MON. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MON...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO 
THIS COULD BE SOME FOG TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER 
TONIGHT...BUT SO WILL TEMPERATURES. ALSO...WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND 
ALOFT WILL BE HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. WILL THUS NOT MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR 
NOW. 


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GEHRING


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 072123
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
323 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING 
THROUGH ON SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE AND 
LIFT JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. COULD 
SEE SOME FLURRIES OR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER 
PER THE FARTHER NORTH ECMWF AND CANADIAN...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE 
THERE. THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE WITH A FARTHER SOUTH AND DRY 
SOLUTION. 

COULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS TOMORROW AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE A 
COUPLE DEGREES COLDER...SO EXPECTING HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER THAN 
TODAY. STILL...TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE MILDER ECMWF...AS THE GFS 
AND NAM CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL. 

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST SUN
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL...A SPLIT JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP
WITH THE NRN BRANCH MAINLY OVER SRN CANADA...AND THE SRN BRANCH
OVER THE SRN USA AND MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL IN THE
SRN BRANCH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME.

SWLY SFC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR MON-TUE WITH
PERSISTENT SFC-850 MB WARM ADVECTION. MOST TEMP GUIDANCE IS TOO
COLD. 925 MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO 2-3C FOR MON AFT AND 8-9C FOR TUE
AFT. THE LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY NOT EXTEND UPWARD TO 925 MB BUT
ADJUSTED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S MON TO 50S TUE. 


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM. 

A TRAILING CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER SRN WI TUE NT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR WED. THE AIRMASS REMAINS MILD BUT
FAR ERN WI WILL SEE A LAKE BREEZE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN
EJECT NEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES...REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FOR THU-FRI. FAR SE WI COULD GET CLIPPED BY LGT RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT ONLY VERY LOW PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THE TEMPERATURES FOR THU-SAT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRESSURE FIELD AND JUST HOW STRONG ANY ELY COMPONENT WINDS WILL
BE. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S OVER FAR ERN WI DURING THIS TIME
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. 

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER 
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT 
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES TOWARD THE ILLINOIS 
BORDER...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.  

&&

.MARINE...

VERY LITTLE ICE EVIDENT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON MODIS IMAGERY 
THIS AFTERNOON. MILDER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO 
LIMITED ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. 


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GEHRING


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 042008
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
308 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON 
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE 
EASTERN DAKOTAS. BENEATH THIS SHORTWAVE...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS 
ARE IN THE -23 TO -26C RANGE OVER THE CWA AND HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT 
SNOW IN THE AREAS DOWN WINDS OF THE GAPS IN OR SLUSHY AREAS OF ICE. 
BASED OFF TODAY/S VISIBLE AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOSE AREAS 
ARE OVER MUCH OF LSZ162 AND THEN AREA NORTHEAST OF ISLE ROYALE AND 
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AREAS WITH ENOUGH FETCH 
OVER THOSE PARTIALLY OPEN AREAS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT 
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. ELSEWHERE...THE 
INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO PARTLY TO 
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. THIS 
DIURNAL HEATING HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...HAVE 
SEEN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXPOSED 
LOCATIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE HIGHEST GUST REPORTED THUS 
FAR AT KCMX HAS BEEN 41MPH AND WHEN THE SNOW HAS MOVED THROUGH IT 
HAS DROPPED VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE. BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS 
THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...THOSE POOR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO 
BE VERY LOCALIZED RIGHT WITHIN THE STRONGER BANDS SEEN SLIDING NORTH 
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. NORTH OF THAT AREA OVER KEWEENAW 
COUNTY...WEBCAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AN 
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A VERY COLD AFTERNOON 
IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WITH 2PM TEMPERATURES AROUND 
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND WARMER HEADING 
TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES 
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL BE THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LAKE 
EFFECT AND COLD LOWS TONIGHT. FIRST FOR THE LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE 
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE LARGER 
SCALE SUPPORT TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THEN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE 
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH 
TTHURSDAYMORNING (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION 
HEIGHTS)...EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE 
EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO GET A BETTER ICE 
ANALYSIS AND THAT HAS FINALLY LED TO THEM STARTING TO SHOW SOME LAKE 
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWN WIND OF THE OPEN AREAS. WHILE THAT IS SOME 
HELP...OPTED TO FOCUS ICE OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE AND THEN FOLLOW 
THE MEAN 925-850MB FLOW FROM THE MODELS TO COME UP WITH THE LAKE 
EFFECT POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST 
POPS (LIKELIES) AROUND THE ONTONAGON/ALGER COUNTY AREAS THIS EVENING 
WITH THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS STILL IN PLACE. BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF 
WINDS BACKING TOWARDS A NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING 
AND EARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE 
RIDGE. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE BANDS INTO THOSE MORE NW WIND FAVORED 
AREAS FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE BACKING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT 
AND INTO TTHURSDAYMORNING. AS THE WINDS BACK...INVERSION HEIGHTS 
FALL BELOW 5KFT AND WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE TEMPS ALOFT AND 
DRIER AIR WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO 
TTHURSDAYMORNING. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO MAINLY AFFECT THE 
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HEADING INTO 
TTHURSDAYAFTERNOON. BUT THINK THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH WILL LIKELY 
LIMIT MUCH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AND ONLY MENTION SLIGHT 
CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN AREAS IN LSZ162. DID HAVE SOME 
CONCERNS ON THE REDUCED VISIBILTIES AT KCMX THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE 
GUSTY WINDS...BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW 
PENINSULA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST CONDITIONS OF 1/4-1/2MI ARE 
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE OPEN AREAS AROUND THE AIRPORT. 
OTHERWISE...WITH THE WINDS DYING DOWN THIS EVENING AND THE SMALL 
SNOWFLAKES LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS...SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH IMPACT WITH 
THE LAKE EFFECT. 

SHOULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP 
AFTER SUNSET AND CLEAR SKIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT 
AREAS...SHOULD SEE LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW AND EVEN 20S 
BELOW ZERO AT THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WITH THE DECOUPLING 
OOCCURRINGDURING THE EVENING AND LIMITED PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT 
WINDS TO FALL TO 5MPH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN WITH THE 
LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL PROBABLY NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY 
CRITERIA OVER SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS. BUT WITH BOTH WINDS AND WIND 
CHILL VALUES LOOKING TO BE VERY MARGINAL...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND 
CHILL ADVISORY. DEBATED AN SPS...BUT NOT SURE IF THE WINDS WOULD 
EVEN WARRANT IT AND OPTED TO STICK WITH THE MENTION IN THE HWO. 
HIGHS SHOULD START TO TREND WARMER TOMORROW UNDER INCREASING 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS 
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE 
DESERT SW AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z FRI. 
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z 
FRI. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST THU NIGHT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 

WILL GO DRY FOR THU NIGHT AND THEN HAVE FLURRIES FOR FRI FOR THE CWA 
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE FOR FRI. WILL GO 
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH 
ANOTHER FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES 
TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. HAVE TEMPERATURES 
RISING ON THU NIGHT WITH A NON DIURNAL CURVE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST 
COAST 12Z SUN WITH A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE 
U.S. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT 
LAKES. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS 
CLIPPER IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA 12Z MON ON THE MANUAL PROGS WITH 
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM 
MOVES THROUGH ON TUE WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL AGAIN FOR 
WED. WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING UP 
WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE 
CLIPPER SYSTEMS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY LITTLE COLD AIR TO 
WORK WITH AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH 
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ANY PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL 
HAVE LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE LIMITED GAPS IN THE ICE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE HEAVIEST BANDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
KIWD...BUT EXPECT THE DIURNAL/SHORTWAVE DRIVEN CLOUDS TO PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD AROUND TAF TIME. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO A
MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAVE
BROUGHT VISIBILITIES DOWN. WITH THE SMALL SNOWFLAKES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGEST
BANDS SINKING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST INTO KIWD WAS LOW AND LEFT
CEILINGS AT MVFR FOR NOW.

THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW AT KCMX WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING...THE FETCH OFF THE OPEN WATER WILL BE LIMITED AND
HAVE BROUGHT UP VISIBILITIES WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS. THE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING.

FINALLY AT KSAW...THE COMBINED DIURNAL AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN HAVE CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE SNOW GOES DOWN. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS
EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A SNOW SHOWER
SNEAKS INTO THE SITE (AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY)...BUT OPTED
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEST-NORTHWEST GALES TO 35KTS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. FEEL THE GOING ENDING
TIMES FOR THE GALE WARNING ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM
EXPIRE AS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS). FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEE A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING TROUGHS/RIDGES...THAT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND FREQUENTLY.
OVERALL...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 30KTS BEHIND THE TROUGHS.
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE LAST DAY...THE ICE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS BEEN SHIFTING AROUND AND BECOME BROKEN UP OVER LSZ162.
WHILE THE COLD TEMPERATURES HAS LED TO SOME GROWTH TODAY...EXPECT
THE QUICKLY SHIFTING WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO LEAD TO THAT ZONE TO BE MORE WATER THAN ICE AND OPTED TO
START ADDING WAVES BACK IN FOR THAT ZONE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 012123
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
423 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM 
HUDSON BAY INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WITHIN TROF...NEXT SHORTWAVE OF 
INTEREST IS NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN. CLOSER TO HOME...SOME 
-SHSH/FLURRIES HAVE SPREAD FROM WRN UPPER MI INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL 
UPPER MI TODAY IN VCNTY OF SFC TROF WHICH IS NOW ROUGHLY BISECTING 
UPPER MI. 

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SWING ACROSS THE WRN 
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AREA OF DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS 
SHIFTS ACROSS UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WITH ASSOCIATED 
BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE...850MB TEMPS AROUND -18C...AND A 
ROUGHLY 3KFT DGZ LAYER BTWN ROUGHLY 2K AND 5KFT...WOULD NORMALLY BE 
CONCERNED ABOUT SEEING SEVERAL HRS OF HEALTHY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IF 
THE LAKE WASN'T MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THAT SAID...THE BRISK SW TO W 
WINDS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE OPENED UP SOME NOTABLE GAPS IN 
THE ICE...SO THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCALIZED MORE 
PERSISTENT LES AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION. FROM TODAYS MODIS AND VIS 
SATELLITE IMAGERY...A COUPLE OF IMPORTANT GAPS IN THE ICE ARE NOTED 
FROM AROUND THE HURON ISLANDS DOWN PAST GRANITE ISLAND AND OVER TO N 
OF MUNISING...AND ALSO IN THE AREA E OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS WHICH 
HAS CERTAINLY HAD A TENDENCY TO OPEN UP OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS WHEN 
WINDS ARE SW. WILL THUS HIT HIGHEST POPS AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW 
DOWNWIND OF THESE OPEN WATER AREAS THIS EVENING (JUST N OF IRONWOOD 
TO THE PORCUPINE MTNS AND ALSO ALGER COUNTY). STRONG NEGATIVE 
DYNAMICS TAKE OVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT...SO LES INTENSITY WILL 
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AWAY FROM THESE AREAS... 
WNW/NW FLOW LES SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCT WITH ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 
1 INCH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME FLURRIES IN MOST AREAS AS SHORTWAVE 
PASSES. TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W TOWARD THE WI BORDER SHOULD FALL 
DOWN TOWARD ZERO WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MIN 
TEMPS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10F. 

ANY LINGERING LES TO THE E OF MARQUETTE WILL END BY MON AFTN UNDER 
WAA/BACKING WINDS WITH PASSAGE OF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE (BY MID AFTN 
850MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE AROUND -12C). WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME 
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT EVEN WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR TO START THE 
DAY...EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BECOME SUNNY DURING THE DAY WITH DRY AIR 
MASS AND DEPARTURE OF 850MB THERMAL TROF. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 
AROUND 20 TO THE UPPER 20S...COOLEST OVER THE FAR E...CLOSER TO 
DEPARTING THERMAL TROF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

...WIDESPREAD SNOW TUESDAY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE...

PRIMARY HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK IS LIMITED TO 
WIDESPREAD SNOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY 
EVENING. OTHERWISE...WARM UP EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY A 
COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. MAY 
BE SOME LAKE EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT CHANCES WILL 
BE HELD DOWN AS LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. TEMPS 
REBOUND AGAIN BY NEXT FRIDAY AND COULD STAY AT SIMILAR LEVELS INTO 
NEXT WEEKEND. 

HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST ON MONDAY EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING 
THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A TWO-PIECED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING 
TOWARD REGION. NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW SLIDES FM 
NORTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. 
MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS 
AS THE SFC LOW ARRIVES ALONG THE NEB/IOWA BORDER. MOISTURE ADVECTION 
AHEAD OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH MAXIMIZES OVERNIGHT BTWN H85 AND 
H5. LIFT IS PRETTY STRONG WITHIN THE MOIST ADVECTION...SO SHOULD SEE 
LGT SNOW BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD WI BORDER WITH 
LOWEST 100MB GRADUALLY SATURATING. HINTS ARE THERE THAT THE INITIAL 
SNOW COULD BE DRIVEN BY FGEN...BUT WHERE MAX RIBBON OF HEAVIER SNOW 
SETS UP IS NOT CERTAIN. 12Z NAM SHOWS IT MORE OVER WESTERN CWA...BUT 
THIS IS AT ODDS WITH NAM DOMINATED SREF OUTPUT AND SEEMS TOO FAR 
NORTH AS IT IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SFC LOW ON 
INTO TUESDAY. WILL KEEP WITH IDEA OF HEAVIER QPF/SNOW ON TUESDAY ON 
EDGE OF GREATER H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH MAINLY IS MAXIMIZED 
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF UPR MICHIGAN OUT AHEAD OF 
SOUTHERN STREAM SFC LOW CROSSING LOWER MICHIGAN. H7 MIXING RATIOS 
GFS/ECMWF STAY BLO 3G/KG THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. MIXING RATIOS INTO THE 
SYSTEM AND BLEND OF QPF FM GFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH SLR/S CENTERED ON 
15:1...SUGGEST ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL SCNTRL CWA INTO THE EASTERN CWA. 
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO/EHWO GRAPHICS. 

PHASING BTWN THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES 
NEVEN REALLY TAKES OFF SO THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY PROGRESSIVE ON 
TUESDAY NIGHT AS MAIN CORE OF UPPER JET ENERGY STAYS OUT AHEAD OF 
THE TROUGH. CHANCE POPS LINGER EARLY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE 
EAST...BUT OTHERWISE POPS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. 
INITIALLY LAKE EFFECT IN WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW ON TUESDAY 
EVENING PROBABLY STAYS ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO MARGINALLY COLD AIR 
/H85 TEMPS WARMER THAN -15C/ AND MAINLY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR. 
GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASE OF MOISTURE H8-H7 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT 
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING BLO 
-20C OVER LK SUPERIOR RESULTS IN INVERSIONS RISING UP TO A MAX OF 
8KFT WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. DESPITE THE HIGH 
ICE COVERAGE...SCT POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO 
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER LAND AREAS WITH SOME HELP FM DAYTIME HEATING 
AS THE HYBRID LAKE EFFECT SEASON IS UNDERWAY DUE TO HIGHER SUN 
ANGLE. WITH NW WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ALONG THE LK SUPERIOR 
SHORELINES...PROBABLY WILL HAVE BLSN/POOR VSBY IN THE SNOW BELTS 
NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MQT. EVEN MINUS BLSN...LES WILL BE GOOD AT 
REDUCING VSBY AS THE SNOWFLAKES WILL BE BECOMING SMALLER. H85 TEMPS 
CONTINUE TO FALL BLO -25C BY LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...SO TEMPS 
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY. 

ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WINDS BACKING W-WSW BY THURSDAY 
MORNING WILL DIMINISH ANY SNOW SHOWERS AS WINDS BECOME MORE 
OFFSHORE. TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD 
TANK WELL UNDER 10 BLO ZERO. MAY SEE MARGINALLY LOW WIND CHILLS ON 
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FARTHER INLAND WHERE TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST 
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE NEARLY CALM. STILL COLD ON THURSDAY AS CORE 
OF COLDER TEMPS ALOFT SLOWLY HEADS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  

WARM FRONT MOVES TOWARD UPPER LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY 
MORNING. WARMING FIRST OCCURS ALOFT THEN MAKES ITS WAY TO SFC BY 
FRIDAY AFTN. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SWEEPS 
ACROSS LEAVING SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS LATER ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND LIFT 
DOES NOT SYNC UP...SO NOT EXPECING MUCH IN WAY OF LGT SNOW. BETTER 
LINKING OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR 
AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. DECENT AGREEMENT IN THIS IDEA FM GFS AND 
ECMWF. COLD AIR NOT AS EMPHATIC FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH GFS AND ECMWF 
SHOWING H85 TEMPS MAINLY WARMER THAN -12C. GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN  
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AND DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL JUST 
RUN WITH CONSENSUS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RESULT IS DAYTIME TEMPS IN 
THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES AND ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF LGT SNOW MAINLY 
OVER THE NORTH AND EAST CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

SFC LOW PRES TROF AND ASSOCIATED -SHSN/MVFR CIGS WILL PASS ACROSS 
THE AREA THIS AFTN. AT KCMX...A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VIS APPEAR LIKELY 
THRU 19Z TO 20Z. OTHERWISE...ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND TROF SHOULD 
BRING A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW DURING THE MID TO 
LATE AFTN HRS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA THIS 
EVENING SHOULD GIVE A BOOST TO LAKE EFFECT -SHSN DESPITE A MOSTLY 
ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR. RECENT SW WINDS MAY HAVE OPENED UP AN 
AREA OF WATER E OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. IF SO...SOME PERIODS OF IFR 
CONDITIONS IN -SHSH MAY OCCUR AT KIWD THIS EVENING UNDER LOW-LEVEL 
WNW FLOW. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT 
KIWD/KCMX TONIGHT WITH OCNL -SHSN. BACKING WINDS MON MORNING WILL 
BRING A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD. AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR 
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING UNDER DOWNSLOPE WNW 
FLOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

SEEMS THAT POTENTIAL FOR GALES IS INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO 
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. 
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK TO BE 15 TO 25 KTS.   
LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LK SUPERIOR IS AROUND 95 PCT. 
EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK...EXPECT THE HIGHER ICE 
COVERAGE TO PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 012103
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1203 PM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE TO BE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT EVEN OUT
INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. JUST
GOING TO NUDGE THE CURRENT GRIDS WITH A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH A CENTER
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS WORKING EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HEIGHTS
AROUND 546 DAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL FALL A LITTLE AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE MAY
SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
ONE. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY WORK
ITS WAY EAST AND NORTH AS IT WORKS OVER AND THROUGH THE RIDGE. A
536 DAM LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC AND INJECT SOME
ENERGY INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT MERGES INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE WEST COAST MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN LIE FROM OVER POINT LAY TO UNALAKLEET TO
CAPE NEWENHAM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FROM BARROW TO HUSLIA TO
LIME VILLAGE LATE TUESDAY EVENING...AND FROM DEADHORSE TO BETTLES
TO SEWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN EXIT THE STATE INTO
CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL LOSE QUITE A BIT OF
ENERGY AS IT PUSHES INTO AND OVER THE RIDGE. ZONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE IS SQUASHED DOWN AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE ENERGY...AND
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE TRAIN OF WAVES THAT WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET
A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE WEEK GOES ON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY...AND WHAT MAY BE THE STRONGEST TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT 850
HPA...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ON
THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
ANOTHER 6 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS. ON THE WEST COAST SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINNING THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW KICKS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

SURFACE...1041 MB HIGH OVER NORTHEAST HALF OF THE MAINLAND WILL
WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL SET UP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE AS A 991 MB LOW IN
THE WESTERN BERING SEA MOVES TO THE GULF OF ANADYR MONDAY
MORNING...AND A 1000 MB LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEMS COMBINE
INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THAT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST MONDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW OVER THE
GULF OF ANADYR MOVES TO THE ARCTIC THE LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS
WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY LATE MONDAY EVENING AT 998
MB...THEN TO KOTZEBUE SOUND AT 999 MB BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
TROUGHING EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK OVER THE RIDGE WITH A COLD FRONT DRAGGING EAST.
THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO NOME TO NUNIVAK ISLAND
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN FROM BARROW TO AMBLER TO UNALAKLEET TO
BETHEL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND FROM DEADHORSE TO HUSLIA TO
DILLINGHAM TUESDAY EVENING...THEN MACKENZIE BAY CANADA TO A
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR BETTLES TO MCGRATH TO KING SALMON BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN DRAG ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
MOVE FROM THE EAST COAST OF JAPAN TO THE SEA OF OKHOTSK BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
THE EASTERN BERING SEA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...BLIZZARD CONTINUES FOR NOW IN
ZONES 204 AND 206...BUT WINDS WILL DROP OFF DRASTICALLY LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OFF INTO CANADA. RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL ALSO COVER THE NORTH SLOPE SO CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MILD NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP...WEST OF
BARROW...FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. TROUGH DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE BROOKS RANGE SO EXPECT SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BUT NOT SURE ON JUST HOW MUCH. NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET FOR NOW. WEATHER
FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW WILL
BEGIN ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE TONIGHT BECOMING HEAVY ON MONDAY
EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS...RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW FOR A FEW
HOURS MID DAY MONDAY. EXPECT SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OVER ZONES
214 AND 215 WHEN IT STARTS BUT THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATER IN
THE EVENING. BY TUESDAY MORNING SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER ALL THE
COASTAL AREAS AND START WORKING INTO THE INTERIOR AREAS. SNOWFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 10 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE NULATO HILLS...THE CENTRAL SEWARD
PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. COOLING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
MPH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...GOOD NIGHT TO VIEW THE AURORA AS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL TONIGHT. SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDY AND PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. 

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 6 AND 7...VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH
ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. THIS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN MUCH BETTER THAN NORMAL LATELY SO
SHOWING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE EVENT AT THIS
TIME.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 01/1357Z/NPP VIIRS AT 01/1438Z 24 HOUR
AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS CONFIRM THE MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS OVER THE STATE. AND THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS
PROVIDE EVEN MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THE ONLY STRATUS CURRENTLY
FLOATING AROUND THE AREA IS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
WITH THE EXITING LOW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB MAR 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 272223
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ALL WEEK IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE
WEATHER FRONT IN THE BERING SEA THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE WITH VERY MINOR PRESSURE
DIFFERENCES. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE...BUT WILL BUMP MOST OF THE POPS UP USING THE
SREF SO WE HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION
NUMBERS LOOK PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH AROUND ONE HALF INCH SO MOST
AREAS WILL SEE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
EXTENDS FROM A HIGH NEAR HAWAII. THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF IT THIS EVENING. A
SECOND...MUCH STRONGER...SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 499 DAM LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
WAINWRIGHT TO TANANA TO LIME VILLAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW FALLS 497 DAM AS IT MOVES TO THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE LOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO 78N 160W IN THE HIGH ARCTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO FORT YUKON TO
MCCARTHY BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...THEN EXITS THE STATE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN PRETTY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AS HEIGHTS CLIMB FROM AROUND 534 DAM SATURDAY EVENING TO
AROUND 550 DAM SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY STALLING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 532 DAM LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA DIGS IN OVER THE WEST COAST. AT 850 HPA...COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 12 TO 16 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AND RISE 12 TO 16 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE MONDAY...THEN BECOME PRETTY STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS KICK UP PRETTY GOOD WITH THE FRONT TO 40
TO 50 KTS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SURFACE...1029 MB HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND
EAST AS A RAPIDLY MOVING WEATHER FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS IT LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO NOME TO KIPNUK BY AROUND 3
AM...THEN FROM WAINWRIGHT TO KOTZEBUE TO MARSHALL BY 9AM SATURDAY.
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO BETTLES TO TANANA
TO LIME VILLAGE BY 3 PM...AND THEN FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO FORT
YUKON TO EIELSON TO PALMER BY 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE EAST EXITING THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A 1040 MB
HIGH BUILDS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND IT...WINDS WILL COME DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID DAY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER
THE INTERIOR. STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY EVENING AT 1045 MB...THEN
SLIDES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...IT IS GOING TO BE A MESS THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING
AROUND 20 CELSIUS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THAT COMBINED WITH
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY SIGNIFICANT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND WORK ACROSS THE ARCTIC. INITIALLY WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 MPH GUSTING AROUND 50
MPH...THAT WILL BE AS STRONG AS THE WIND GETS WEST OF
NUIQSUT...TO THE EAST OF NUIQSUT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINE TO PUSH
WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE OF 65 MPH GUSTING TO 80 MPH. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE BLOWN AROUND INTO
DRIFTS. VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
THEN REBOUND UP 10 TO 20 DEGREES FAIRLY RAPIDLY MONDAY. WILL
ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ZONES 203...204...AND 206 MAINLY EAST
OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MAINLY
BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS FOR ZONES 201...202...AND 205.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
COAST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. SOME AREAS
WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FIRST SHOT. THE NEXT
SHOT WILL COME WITH THE FRONT THAT GETS TO THE COAST SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CARRY A LITTLE PUNCH WITH IT SO EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST
TO EAST. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BEGIN CLEARING BY NOON WITH
INLAND AREAS CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG OUT HERE AS THEY WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN
THE INTERIOR AS THE COLD AIR HANGS BACK A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT
THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECT IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION
AND THE BERING STRAIT...BUT THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ROLLER COASTER AS THEY COOL RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM RAPIDLY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP FOR 207...208...213...AND 217. WILL
ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 209 AND 210 FOR NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WEATHER FRONT MARCHES
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING AROUND TANANA BY 10 AM SATURDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS TRENDING DOWN OVERNIGHT
FROM THE WEST. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HILLS WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH BUT EXPECT WINDS IN THE VALLEYS TO GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH. SNOWFALL WITH THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT MUCH OF THAT SNOW ON THE HILLS WILL BE BLOWN
AROUND INTO DRIFTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR THEM TO REBOUND MONDAY. WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 218...219...220...221...222...AND
224.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 27/2040Z/NPP VIIRS AT 27/2012Z 24 HOUR
AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS SHOW THE LARGE AREA OF STRATUS
MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR. A LITTLE HARDER TO SEE
IT ON THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS...BUT USING IN COMBINATION WITH
THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND THE GOES CLOUD PHASE PRODUCT
IT STANDS OUT REALLY WELL. 

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ218-AKZ219-
AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 251308
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
408 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THE LAST COUPLE RUNS.
THIS RUN INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL USE A BLEND
OF THE MODELS TO TWEAK THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OVER THE YUKON AND
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM LOW
OVER WRANGEL ISLAND IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE THIS MORNING AND WILL BE INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY NOON.
THE 494 DAM LOW OVER WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
HIGH CANADIAN ARCTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 546 DAM LOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP FROM
THE WESTERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT AND NORTHWEST ALASKA
TO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA TODAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
BEING SHUT OFF. A MAJOR SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA THURSDAY MORNING MOVING TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
FRIDAY EVENING AND CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE. THE SHORTWAVE THEN
MOVES TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY
LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE YUKON SUNDAY MORNING. A 564 DAM
HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC OVER KODIAK ISLAND
BY THURSDAY MORNING AND RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY
SATURDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION AS THE RIVER OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE
AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE EVENT. THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF WARMER AIR THAT THE MODELS CANNOT
DEFINE DUE TO THE SIZE OF THE GRID.

SURFACE...WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING
SPREADING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND THE AREA
MAINLY EAST OF FAIRBANKS. FRONT MOVES INTO YUKON BY AFTERNOON AS
1034 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING AND WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 998 MB LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTH
TO THE HIGH ARCTIC TONIGHT THEN MOVES EAST. A 1005 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST CHUKCHI SEA AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF BARROW
BY THURSDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE. A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
BERING STRAIT AND NORTHWEST ALASKA TO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA. A
991 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY MORNING AT 1001 MB THEN MOVE NORTH OVER
EASTERN SIBERIA. A 1005 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
ANADYR THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AT 1006 MB...THEN MOVE TO OVER BARROW BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN INTO MACKENZIE BAY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 1008 MB
LOW WILL SPIN UP INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AND MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING TO THE
NORTHWEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEST COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE
EXITING INTO THE YUKON SUNDAY MORNING AS A 1045 MB HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
AREA WITH SIGNIFICANTLY VARYING CONDITIONS AS EACH FRONT GETS
CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AND MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF FLURRIES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN
PERIODS WHEN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS HEAVIER SNOW
AND STRONGER WINDS MOVE THROUGH WITH THE FRONTS. WILL ISSUE
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONE 201 AND 205...BUT AS NOTED CONDITIONS
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. WINDS INCREASING TODAY TO 30 TO 50 MPH AS
ONE OF THE STRONGER FRONTS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. THE LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW IN THE ARCTIC...BUT AREAS IN THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL SEE SOME HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FAIRLY FLAT NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN WARM A LITTLE ON FRIDAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...THE RIVER OF MOISTURE WILL BRING
HEAVY SNOW TO ZONES 207...208...210...211...213 AND 217. THE WINDS
ARE LOOKING TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED
BY THE MODELS SO INSTEAD OF WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL THE AREAS
WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONE 213 AND UPGRADE THE REST TO
WARNINGS IF THEY HAVE NOT BEEN ALREADY. QPF IS STILL PRETTY HIGH
OVER THOSE AREAS...BUT GFS SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH SO WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE ECMWF FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOWFALL. WINDS ARE A
LITTLE MORE FRISKY THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED SO LOOK FOR WINDS
FROM NOME NORTH OF 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH...EXCEPT ON THE
BERING STRAIT COAST...ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND FROM KIVALINA
NORTH WINDS WILL BE IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE WINDS GUSTS NEAR 65
MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY FLAT THOUGH SOME WARM AIR WILL
BE PULLED NORTH AND MAY RESULT IN SOME RAIN MIXING WITH THE SNOW
ON THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA. 

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES FROM FAIRBANKS WEST
THIS MORNING AS THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
FLURRIES ENDING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SOME CLEARING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL RIDE
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE YUKON RIVER. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA WITH NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER
THE AREA. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE
BEGINNING SATURDAY...SPREADING SNOW FROM THE WEST OVER THE
INTERIOR BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY AT THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SOME STRONGER WINDS
OF 20 TO 35 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING THE
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS
AT 25/0845Z SHOW LARGE AREAS OF STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THE LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. NO VIIRS FOG PRODUCTS SO FAR THIS MORNING TO
COMPARE...BUT THE MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS WITH THE
SAME TIME STAMP INDICATE IT IS MOSTLY STRATUS AND NOT FOG.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213-
AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ205.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 250936 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 
336 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ADDED TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE SECTIONS

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. 

MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOWING UP ON THE VWP NETWORK IN NODAK AT 850H 
TAKES A SOUTHEAST TRACK ACROSS ERN SODAK AND WRN IA TO NEAR IA/MO 
BORDER BY 00Z. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NUDGING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER 
NORTHEAST AND 06Z NAM EVEN FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH MID-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION. THIS CIRCULATION IS TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ALONG A TIGHT 
BAROCLINIC RIBBON. THIS NORTHEAST NUDGE IS BRINGING A MUCH BETTER 
THREAT FOR -SN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WI FROM LATE MRNG 
INTO THE EVE. 285 ISENTROPIC OMEGA SHOWS BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER LIFT 
IN THE AFTN AFFECTING SOUTHWEST CWA WHICH TIES INTO WHERE BETTER 
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. MODERATE LOW LEVEL 
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALSO BRUSHES SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTN.  

THICKNESSES FAVOR SLR AROUND 20 TO 1 WITH QPF BETWEEN 0.05 TO 0.1.  
AT THIS TIME THINKING A COUPLE INCHES COULD OCCUR IN THE DARLINGTON 
AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING...TRAILING OFF TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE 
MADISON AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THE SOUTHWEST DURING 
THE AFTN. WL ADD MENTION TO THE HWO AS -SN WILL BE OCCURING DURING 
EVE RUSH. 

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. 

HUNG ONTO SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS 
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND LIFT WITH PASSING 850MB LOW SINKS TO THE 
SOUTH. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND 
FLOW MORE LIKELY TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO STRONGER SFC LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THRU THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.  
COLD AIR SINKING ACROSS LAKE MI WILL RESULT IN THE DELTA-T 
INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 20C. EXPECT DEEP RH UP TO 10K FEET 
FOR A TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES...WITH MUCH OF THE 
COLUMN IN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DURING THE LATE EVE TO AFT 
MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 20KTS RESULTING IN 
SEVERAL PERIODS OF FAVORABLE OMEGA ALONG THE LAKESHORE. 

HIGH RES MODIS IMAGE FROM TUE AFTN SHOWED ICE COVER REMAINING OVER 
MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT LAKE WATERS BEYOND 10 MILES 
REMAINED ICE FREE. HARD TO SAY WHAT AFFECT THE ICE COVER WILL 
HAVE...BUT ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO 
LIKELYS FROM SRN MKE COUNTY SOUTH TO IL BORDER WITH SCT WORDING 
FARTHER NORTH. LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLOW CHART RESULTS IN MODERATE SNOW 
ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT BUT WITH ICE COVER AND GRADUALLY BACKING 
WINDS...WL LIMIT SNOWFALL TO 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR NOW. 

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS LINGER LIGHT LAKE EFFECT QPF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING...AS 1000/850 MB CONVERGENCE SLOWLY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. VERY FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES REMAIN...THOUGH
AIR COLUMN ABOVE INVERSION DRIES OUT. THUS...CONTINUED TO MENTION
MODEST POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY MORNING. 

OTHERWISE...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 00Z SATURDAY...THEN TO
THE EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 

DRY AIRMASS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG NEAR SURFACE INVERSION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS WELL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. LOWS MAY GET SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER IF
WINDS FULLY DECOUPLE...WHICH IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND FRIDAY INTO THE MID TEENS...ARE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY 12Z
SATURDAY...AND GENERALLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY
CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH TRENDS FOR THE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 TO 9 HOURS QUICKER WITH BRINGING
INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION QPF INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THEY
BOTH BRING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. 

BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MORE MODEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT MAINLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT IN LATER FORECASTS IF QPF
CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SLIDES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW TRACK
TIMING...THOUGH BOTH DO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY IN LATER FORECASTS...AS THIS TRACK COULD BRING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. STAY
TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

BETTER THREAT FOR -SN TO SPREAD INTO KMSN THIS AFTN WITH CIGS AND 
VSBYS BRIEFLY LOWERING TO MVFR. LAKE EFFECT -SHSN LIKELY TO AFFECT 
KMKE AND KENW TNGT WITH POTENTIAL FOR CIGS AND VSBYS DROPPING AS LOW 
AS IFR. 

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS IMAGE FROM TUE AFTN HAD PARTIAL CLEARING OVER 
THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH REVEALED ICE COVER PERSISTING IN THOSE 
VSBL AREAS. WITH COLD AIR RETURNING AND SETTLING IN FOR THE REST OF 
THE WEEK...EXPECT WIDESPREAD ICE COVER TO CONTINUE. WIND GUSTS WL 
GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR A TIME TONIGHT AS PRESSURE 
GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE 
AREA.  

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 250748
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
348 AM AST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK LEADING TO STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS AND DRYING CONDITIONS.
RIDGE WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH ESTABLISHES OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN LEADING TO SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONE LAST DAY OF 'WET CONDITIONS' BEFORE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES FIRM CONTROL OF THE REGION LEADING TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. AN AREA OF HIGHER
TPW APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT THIS TIME WILL ADVECT WWD
TODAY LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...RIDGE EXPECTED TO TAKE FULL CONTROL OF
THE REGION LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SIGNIFICANT
DRYING ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALSO BE TIGHTENING WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 20-KT OVER
COASTAL AREAS AND OVER WATER INTO SUN MORNING.

RIDGE WEAKENS SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH PATTERN
BROADENS AND AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST-CNTRL ATLC INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN PROMOTING MOISTURE RECOVERY AND MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS MON AND TUE. TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ESTABLISHING LEADING TO DRYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA XCP SCT OVR NW PR IN AFT...YET VFR EVEN IN 
MOST SHRA THRU THU. FEW OBSCD MTNS THIS AFT. WIND BLO FL120 E-ESE 
12-20 KT INCR E 14-28 KT LATE TONITE-THU.


&&

.MARINE...ONE LAST DAY OF GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY BEFORE
WINDS STRENGTHEN THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND STEEP WAVES OF 6-8 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SUN AND LIKELY BEYOND THAT AS
WINDS DO NOT APPEAR WILL SLOW DOWN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY ACTIVE FIRE WX PATTERN EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH
THURSDAY AND HOLD THROUGH SUN UNDER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SFC
AND ALOFT LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE FUEL MOISTURE
AS RAINFALL HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE MONTH OF FEB IN MOST
PLACES. GREATEST RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE BEEN IN ST. CROIX...SOUTHWEST...
SOUTHEAST...AND NCNTRL PR BASED ON AHPS AND LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL DEFICITS THIS TIME AROUND ARE SIGNIFICANT LOWER
WHEN COMPARED TO THE WINTER OF 2013 AND 2014. WILL LIKELY ISSUE A
FIRE WX WATCH FOR ST. CROIX WHERE 30-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN
DISMAL AND MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY VEGETATION AND SUSCEPTIBLE
TO BURNING. WILL ALSO COORDINATE WITH PR FIRE CORPS AND FISH AND
WILDLIFE SERVICE ON FUEL CONDITIONS TO SEE WHETHER FIRE WX WATCHES
MAY BE NEEDED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  74  88  74 /  20  10  10  10 
STT  84  77  84  77 /  10  10  10  10 

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/64








----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KBUF 240905
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
405 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST 
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOWARD THE 20 
DEGREE MARK TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER 
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW 
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES 
AT LEAST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH 
MORE CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHARP SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LARGER MEAN TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY 
WILL DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND WILL ARRIVE ON 
WESTERN NEW YORKS DOOR STEP BY THIS EVENING. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL 
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND THE 
SHORTWAVE RIDGING PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WARM AIR 
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS WILL ALLOW 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO PUSH NEAR THE 20 DEGREE MARK BY THIS 
AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND 
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...SOUTHWESTERLY 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...AND COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY BY THIS 
AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE WARM AIR ADVECTION / LIFT AND INCREASING 
CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL HELP THE WINDS FROM REACHING 
THEIR FULL GUSTY POTENTIAL. THUS USING THE MIXED WINDS AS A STARTING 
POINT FOR THE WIND GUST FORECAST...HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE GUSTS BY 10 
TO 15 PERCENT. THIS LARGELY GIVES GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS 
POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN LAKES AND THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BY LATE 
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS THESE WINDS INCREASE...SOME AREAS OF 
BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE TOP LAYER OF SNOW REMAINS 
LOOSELY PACKED.

ALSO BY THIS EVENING...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING 
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO 
EAST. WINDS TURNING MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL 
HELP ENHANCE SNOWFALL IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE 
AND THE TUG HILL REGION WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY THERE. SOME 
DOWNSLOPING INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL HELP TO LIMIT SNOWFALL 
AMOUNTS...WITH GENERALLY A COATING TO AN INCH LIKELY THERE. OVERALL 
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH 
WINDS CONTINUING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW 
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THE FRESH LAYER OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE 
QUICKLY EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW SHOWERS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE 
ARCTIC FRONT WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING. 
BEHIND THE CLIPPER AT LEAST SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP EAST 
AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED 
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THIS 
MAY ALLOW A DECENT AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP 
ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE TUG HILL REGION. NOTE THAT THE LATEST 
MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A DECREASE IN ICE COVER OVER MUCH 
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER 
LAKE RESPONSE. 

LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS PEAK AROUND 10K FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING NEAR THE TIME OF THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE...THEN LOWER TO 
AROUND 5K FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW 
OF OPPORTUNITY TO SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS IN PERSISTENT 
BANDS EAST OF THE LAKE. HAVE INITIALLY GONE WITH AMOUNTS OF 3-5 
INCHES ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TUG HILL 
FOR WEDNESDAY. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY FOR 
THIS AREA AS CONFIDENCE GROWS ON PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. THE WESTERN 
END OF THE BAND MAY ALSO BRUSH THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM 
EASTERN NIAGARA TO NORTHWEST MONROE COUNTIES WITH AN INCH OR SO OF 
ACCUMULATION ON WEDNESDAY.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL FORCE TEMPERATURES TO 
FALL DURING THE DAY...WITH TEENS IN THE MORNING DROPPING TO SINGLE 
NUMBERS BY LATE AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AND 
EVENTUALLY NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ONSHORE 
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE WITH SNOW WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AS 
FETCH SHORTENS...INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER...AND LOW LEVELS CONTINUE 
TO DRY. ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS...WITH THE 
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE TYPICAL AREAS FROM NEAR IRONDEQUOIT BAY EAST 
TO OSWEGO COUNTY. SOME VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY 
LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE THROUGH THURSDAY.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE 
STRONGER WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC WAVE 
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND PA/NY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING AN 
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND MAY 
EVEN PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY AMOUNTS 
WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH. 
THE COLD CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN MOST 
AREAS...AND AROUND 10 ON THE LAKE PLAINS. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL 
HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FREE FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE VERY 
COLD AIRMASS WILL STILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD 
AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY TO 
THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC BY LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A 
PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND EVEN SOME 
SUNSHINE. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE 
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE 
HIGH MAY ALLOW AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO 
DEVELOP BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON 
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE HIGH SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER TEENS. THERE 
WILL BE SOME MODERATION ON SATURDAY...BUT A STEEP SUBSIDENCE 
INVERSION MAY RESULT IN A STRUGGLE TO WARM THE SURFACE DESPITE 
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. WITH THIS IN MIND EXPECT MANY AREAS TO SEE 
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN GROWS MORE COMPLEX AND INTERESTING BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SEND TWO SHORTWAVES 
TO THE EAST. THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL CAPTURE SOME 
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE DURING ITS TRIP ACROSS THE NATION...WHILE 
THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER 
WILL PROVIDE A FRESH SUPPLY OF COLD AIR. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO 
SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME INTERACTION AND PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO 
WAVES...RESULTING IN A WIDE SWATH OF INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM 
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THE LATEST 
00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED COLDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND ARE 
NOW COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL 
DYNAMICS THIS SYSTEM HAS TO WORK WITH...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO 
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...THE SAME BASIC PATTERN REMAINS IN 
PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WAVY BAROCLINIC ZONE 
DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL US TO THE MID ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WAVE MAY 
MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODEL 
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND 
FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH THIS FEATURE...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO OUR 
REGION. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP STAYING ALL 
SNOW AGAIN...AND THIS IS A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE DOMINANCE 
OF COLD AIR RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. KART WILL BE THE ONLY 
EXCEPTION THIS MORNING AS A WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND BRIEFLY 
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO 25 
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KIAG/KBUF. AREAS OF 
BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS 
EVENING...BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS 
ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THE LONGEST AT KJHW AS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY 
KEEP A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. BLOWING SNOW COULD 
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITHIN AND AFTER THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH A 
FRESH COATING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND.

OUTLOOK... 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FOCUS TODAY TURNS TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 
PUSHING 30 TO 35 KNOTS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN 
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE 
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO 
INCREASE INTO THE LOW 20S THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CANCELED THE HEAVY 
FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ON LAKE ONTARIO. HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORIES FOR OPEN WATER PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY 
THURSDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS REMAIN LAKE 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 
ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING SPRAY AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES ACROSS THE 
LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)    

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)    

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE 
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF 
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME 
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO 
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY'S ON RECORD. 
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR  

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  44.3        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  42.7        1910
            5  41.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21)



---IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE 
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978. 

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 7 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS 
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         8          1934
         7          1963
         7          1875
         7          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT 
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN 
1884-85.
   
---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 14 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN 
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        15          1993
        15          1979
        14          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ001>008-
     010-011-013-014.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST 
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST 
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH
CLIMATE...THOMAS






----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 222026
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
226 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO 
ILLINOIS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WILL EASE OVER SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT... AND THEN INCREASE 
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. 
THE HIGH WILL BRING A CORE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. 

925MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO -22 TO -24C WHICH TRANSLATES TO THE LOWER 
TO MID TEENS BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT. COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE TOWARD 
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WI... CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE HIGH. WINDS 
COULD DECOUPLE THERE WHICH WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN 
FORECAST... BUT WIND CHILL TEMPS WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS LOW. 
OVERALL... EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT 5 TO 10 
MPH... SO MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 BELOW 
RANGE FROM MID EVENING THROUGH MID MONDAY MORNING. A WIND CHILL 
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. 

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BY MONDAY 
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK OUT OF THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY 
BECOME SOUTHWEST LATE WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A NORTHERN TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHES THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH WEAK UPWARD 700 MB LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TUESDAY. MODERATE
925/850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEAKER COLD
AIR ADVECTION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 925/850/700 MB SWINGS DOWN
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRYING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH 925 MB RH REMAINS LONGER INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DRYING FROM THE NORTH LATE.  

THE SURFACE LOW IS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT REACHING THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NAM BRINGS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE BOTH DRIER...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF HAVING NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EXCEPT TOWARDS SHEBOYGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE THE LOW MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE BASE OF THE INITIAL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. WEDNESDAY....WITH A SECOND
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH MAINLY WEAK DOWNWARD
MOTION AT 700 MB. 700 MB RH IS LOW. THE 925/850 MB RH DRIES
TUESDAY EVENING WITH 925 MB RH INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS...
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH NORTH LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.


.LONG TERM...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE SPLIT FLOW BREAKS DOWN AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH BUILDS BACK
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS WISCONSIN
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE COLD SURFACE HIGH SAGS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WISCONSIN. AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON THE
REGION. WITH LIGHT WINDS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD IF
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH LIGHT WINDS...WINDS CHILLS WILL
NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL AS IT WEAKENS AND A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. 

THE CENTER OF THE COLD SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS WISCONSIN 
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES A LITTLE EAST FRIDAY CONTINUING THE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS...WINDS CHILLS WILL
NOT BE A FACTOR. 

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE REACHES THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS TO WISCONSIN.  

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY
EJECTING SHORTWAVES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TWO SHORTWAVES PUSHING
EAST NORTHEAST...THE FIRST WOULD MOVE WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN.
THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH ANY EJECTING SHORTWAVES. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS.

THE GFS BRINGS IN MORE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS WOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD ONLY BEGIN SOME LIGHT SNOW
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NEW 12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z
GFS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. 

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE 
SLIDES SOUTHEAST FROM MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. NORTHWEST 
WINDS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... THEN BECOME 
WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR STRONG AND GUSTY 
SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS LAKE 
SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL... 
WITH 40 TO 50 KNOT WSW WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE 
SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS LAKE 
SUPERIOR. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE 
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A LAYER OF ICE OVER 
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY 
     FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HENTZ


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 220847
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
347 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

NEXT QUICK HITTING PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR IS CURRENTLY SURGING INTO THE 
UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON 
HOURS TODAY WITH SUB -30C 85H AIR COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA. 
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR BELOW ZERO AND EXPECT MANY AREAS TO 
REMAIN BELOW ZERO TODAY. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH 
TODAY...WIND CHILLS WILL HOLD IN THE -20 TO -30 F RANGE THROUGH THE 
DAY TODAY. BIGGEST CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW.  YESTERDAYS MODIS IMAGERY SHOWED SOME OPEN WATER 
ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 
SHOVING AND COMPRESSING THE ICE PACK TO THE SOUTH.  IN 
ADDITION...ICE COVERAGE OVER THE DEEPEST PART OF THE LAKE IS STILL 
PRETTY THIN.  BASED ON HOW COLD THE AIR MOVING OVER THE LAKE TODAY 
WILL BE...EXPECT HEAT FLUXES THROUGH THE ICE TO BE SUFFICIENT TO 
GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDING FOR NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WIND 
FAVORED AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST.  LATEST IR IMAGERY IS 
HINTING AT SOME OF THESE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED OVER ICE BANDS. 
WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION EVEN WHERE THE BANDS DO OCCUR...OVERALL 
SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT...NOTHNG MORE THAN AN INCH OR 
TWO PER 12 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MANY TIMES 
RECENTLY...THE FINE SNOWFLAKES IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE 
EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VISIBILITY. 

CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. 
WINDS WILL DIMINSIH SOME TONIGHT...BUT AS THEY DO TEMPERATURES 
SHOULD FALL OFF INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO.  EVEN WITH WINDS 
OF 10 MPH OR LESS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 30 TO 40 
BELOW ZERO RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL 
KEEP WIND CHILL ADVISORY GOING THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY AND ADD 
MENOMINEE COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

PERSISTENT HI AMPLITUDE UPR RDG OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN 
NAMERICA/DEEP TROF OVER CENTRAL AND ERN NAMERICA WL PERSIST THRU 
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT 
THAT WL BRING ARCTIC SURGES INTO THE UPR LKS THRU MID WEEK. TOWARD 
THE END OF THE WEEK THOUGH...FALLING HGTS OVER THE W WL ALLOW FOR A 
MORE ZONAL FLOW AND SOME AIRMASS MODERATION. BUT WITH DRY HI PRES 
FCST TO BE DOMINATING...LO TEMPS MAY STILL BE QUITE COLD DESPITE THE 
MORE SEASONABLE H85 AND DAYTIME TEMPS.

SUN NGT/MON...SPRAWLING ARCTIC HI PRES CENTERED OVER SW MN AT 00Z 
MON IS FCST TO SLIDE SLOWLY S AND OVER THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY BY 
00Z TUE. FOR UPR MI...THIS TRACK WL RESULT IN A STEADILY BACKING NW 
TO SW WIND. SCATTERED LK EFFECT SN SHOWERS OFF BREAKS IN THE ICE 
INTO THE NW WIND SN BELTS ON SUN NGT...LIMITED GREATLY BY LARGER 
SCALE ACYC H925 FLOW AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE FM 3-4K FT 
TO 2K FT AGL AS WELL AS THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER...WL TEND TO SHIFT 
OFF INTO LK SUP ON MON. STEADY H925 WINDS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE ON 
SUN NGT/MON MRNG IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS MODERATING STEADILY 
DUE TO WAA/SUBSIDENCE FM ABOUT -30C AT 00Z MON TO -20C AT 18Z MON 
JUSTIFY GOING WIND CHILL HEADLINES. SINCE THE BACKING FLOW WL LIMIT 
LK MODERATION INTO THE E...AN AREA WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE CORE OF 
THE RETREATING ARCTIC AIR...OPTED TO EXTEND THE WIND CHILL ADVY 
HEADLINE FOR THE ERN CWA THRU MON MRNG EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE A 
BREAK IN THE ADVY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS ON SUN AFTN. ACTUAL AIR TEMPS 
ON SUN NGT COULD BE QUITE COLD AND UNDER -20F OVER THE INTERIOR W 
HALF...WHERE SFC WINDS MIGHT BE A BIT LIGHTER CLOSE TO THE HI CENTER 
PASSING TO THE SW. UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE HI 
SINKING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND NEXT SHRTWV/SFC LO DIGGING SEWD 
INTO NW ONTARIO ON MON...SW H925 WINDS ARE FCST TO INCRS TO 35-45KTS 
BY 00Z TUE. H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE TOWARD -10C OVER THE W TO
-15C OVER THE E BY 00Z TUE IN THE INCRSG WAA...ALLOWING TEMPS TO 
RECOVER INTO THE TEENS OVER THE W AND UP TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE 
E UNDER INCRSG HI/MID CLDS RELATED TO THE WAA.

MON NGT/TUE...SHRTWV AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LO MOVING INTO FAR NW 
ONTARIO ON MON EVNG ARE FCST TO SLIDE SEWD TO THE NE OF LK SUP 
DURING THIS TIME...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FROPA OVER UPR MI ON TUE 
MRNG. SOME LIGHT SN IN THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN AHEAD OF 
THIS DISTURBANCE WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI FM THE NW ON MON NGT AND 
PERSIST INTO TUE MRNG BEFORE THE COLD FROPA. SINCE THE MSTR INFLOW 
WL BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST IN THE 
1.0-1.5 G/KG RANGE...AND VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WL NEED TO BE 
OVERCOME...ACCOMPANYING SN ACCUMS SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED TO NO 
MORE THAN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HIER POPS/QPF WL BE OVER THE NE CWA 
CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK/LONGER DURATION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/AREA 
OF STRONGER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. ALTHOUGH THE DGZ IS FCST TO BE 
RATHER DEEP AND INCLUDE MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED UVV...STRONG WINDS 
MIGHT BREAK UP THE DENDRITES TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. BUT THE SMALLER 
FLAKES WOULD BE MORE EFFICIENTLY BLOWN ABOUT BY THE GUSTY VEERING 
WINDS THAT WL BE OCCURRING UNDER THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT FCST AND 
RESTRICT VSBY. WITH H85 THERMAL RDG OVER UPR MI ON MON NGT AND THE 
GUSTY WINDS...EXPECT RELATIVELY HI MIN TEMPS AND NO NEED FOR MORE 
WIND CHILL HEADLINES DESPITE THE GUSTY WINDS THAT WL MAKE THE AIR 
FEEL COLDER. WSHFT TO THE NW FOLLOWING THE TUE MRNG COLD FROPA WL 
DRAG ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS BACK INTO THE CWA IN THE AFTN... 
DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -20C AGAIN BY 00Z WED AND ALLOWING FOR AT 
LEAST SCATTERED LES.

TUE NGT/WED...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FCSTS H85 TEMPS TO FALL AS LO AS 
-28C TO -30C ARND 12Z WED IN COLD NNW FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT CNDN HI 
PRES MOVING TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. THERE MAY BE SOME LES OFF BREAKS 
IN THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER...BUT THE BIGGEST THREAT WL BE WIND 
CHILLS AT LEAST APRCHG ADVY CRITERIA AS H925 WINDS ARE FCST UP TO 30-
35 KTS DURING THE DESTABILIZING PERIOD OF CAA THAT WL DROP MIN TEMPS
BLO ZERO AGAIN.

EXTENDED...THE ARCTIC HI OVER SCENTRAL CANADA ON WED IS FCST TO 
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY ON THU... 
THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON FRI...AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES 
ON SAT UNDER SLOWLY RISING HGTS IN THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF 
TROFFING OVER WRN NAMERICA. THE RESULT WL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY 
WX. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LES MAINLY E OF MARQUETTE INTO THU 
WHILE THE LLVL FLOW IS STILL NW...BACKING WINDS TOWARD THE W AND 
THEN SW WL SHIFT ANY SN SHOWERS OUT INTO LK SUP. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST 
TO MODERATE TO ABOUT -15C BY FRI/SAT...SO THERE SHOULD BE WARMING 
DAYTIME TEMPS AT LEAST TOWARD 20F WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. BUT 
FCST PWAT AS LO AS 0.05 INCH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME VERY LO OVERNGT 
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IF THE MODELS SHOWING A FLATTER PRES GRADIENT/ 
LIGHTER WINDS ARE CORRECT. MORE CLDS MAY ARRIVE NEXT SAT IN ADVANCE 
OF AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY EVENING) 

EVEN WITH MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FROZEN OVER...THERE WAS STILL ENOUGH
HEAT COMING OFF THE LAKE TO LEAD TO SOME SCT LAKE EFFECT IN THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLIER TODAY. 
AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAINS FOR
SUNDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LIMITED
BREAKS IN THE LAKE ICE. WITH THE SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SMALLER
FLAKES AND THUS MORE EFFECTIVE VISIBILITY REDUCERS...THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR KIWD/KCMX TO SEE REDUCTIONS TO IFR CONDITIONS. BUT...IT
WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE WIND DIRECTION WITH THE ICE COVERAGE. DUE TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE...ALSO DUE TO MODELS OVERDOING UPSTREAM
MOISTURE...OPTED TO LEAVE VISIBILITIES AT THOSE SITES AT LOW END
MVFR. AT KSAW...A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE POTENTIAL MOISTURE AND WINDS
NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE...HAVE JUST BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT
TO PRIMARILY KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

THE NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR IS CURRENTLY SURGING ACROSS LAKE 
SUPERIOR. WITH THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT 
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-30KTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BUT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WINDS 
TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS 
MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF GALES TO 35-40KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT 
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES 
TOWARDS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST UP TO 
30KTS AND REMAIN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE 
SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW 
GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS ON TUESDAY. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL 
GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE STRONG HIGH MOVES 
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR 
     MIZ001>007-009>011-013-014-084-085.

  WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST MONDAY 
     FOR MIZ012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...MZ


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 220327
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
927 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

.UPDATE...WILL CONTINUE SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CWA
OVERNIGHT. SCT-BKN STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG ON ACROSS WEST IN
VICINITY OF ARCTIC FRONT. HOWEVER LOW LEVELS SUCCUMB TO STRONG
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. AREA OF FLURRIES AND ISOLD
-SHSN PICKING UP ALONG ARCTIC FRONT AND SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL AFFECT EASTERN AREAS
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 

OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK IN GOOD ORDER. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP
TO AROUND ZERO TO 2 BELOW IN THE WEST LATE TNGT RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS OF 15 TO 20 BELOW. THE RETURN OF THE BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL
KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUN ONLY IN THE 5 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE WITH
PERSISTENT COLD WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORY
STILL LOOKS LIKELY SUN NGT. 

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST WI TAF SITES IN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
MAIN ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS MAY BE BRIEFLY MVFR
WITH -SN BUT WL BE MOSTLY VFR WITH CLEARING TREND TNGT INTO EARLY
SUN.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF BITTERLY
COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH RES MODIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED ICE COVERING MUCH OF
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WOULD EXPECT SOME ICE GROWTH TO OCCUR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/ 

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVED IN SOUTHEAST 
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING ON LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS. THE 925MB 
COLD FRONT LAGS BEHIND IN CENTRAL WI AS OF 3 PM. THE 925MB FRONT AND 
STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES 
WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE /DGZ/ WITH JUST ENOUGH OMEGA/UPWARD 
MOTION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND 
CENTRAL WI FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS. ONLY A 
DUSTING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. 

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. THE NAM KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS CLOUDS IN PLACE 
OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON UPSTREAM 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS... THAT APPEARS OVERDONE AND I 
LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS AND OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND ZERO NEAR THE DELLS AND 10 
ABOVE NEAR KENOSHA BY 12Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER 
TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE TEMPS WILL STEADY OUT IN THE 
MORNING AND RISE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY... WITH HIGHS SUNDAY 
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. DESPITE STEADY NORTHWEST 
WINDS... WIND CHILL TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO TOWARD 
THE DELLS. NO WIND CHILL ADVISORY PLANNED FOR THE MKX FORECAST AREA 
TONIGHT.

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO 
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. CANNOT 
RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL RETURN BY MONDAY. VERY WEAK UPPER CONVERGENCE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH VERY WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE LATER MONDAY. WEAK 700 MB DOWNWARD
MOTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH VERY WEAK UPWARD MOTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 700 MB RH REMAINS DRY WITH SOME MOISTENING NORTH AREAS
MONDAY. LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY.

850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING...BUT
VERY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TOWARDS IOWA BUT THEN DROPS SOUTH. AS A RESULT
THE WINDS MAY NOT DECOUPLE COMPLETELY SO WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN
AT PLAY IN THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. 

THE HIGH DROPS SOUTH MONDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY. MUCH OF THE WARMING IS ALOFT WITH A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 1 THSD FT EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
MOIST LAYER BELOW THE INVERSION IS VERY SHALLOW...SO STRATUS NOT
EXPECTED...JUST INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A NORTHERN TROUGH
PUSHING INTO WISCONSIN TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS WITH THE STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITHOUT THE PRIOR LEAD CYCLONIC VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. 

A BAND OF HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 925/850/700 MB SWINGS DOWN
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW IS NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NAM BRINGS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE BOTH DRIER...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF HAVING NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE THE LOW MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER SURFACE COLD HIGH NORTH OF MONTANA AND THE DAKOTA...
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH NORTH LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL AS IT WEAKENS AND A
SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

THE SURFACE COLD HIGH SAGS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS...WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON THE REGION. WITH
LIGHT WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE GFS LIFTS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE INTO THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF WAS SLOWER...BUT THE
12Z ECMWF IS NOW QUICKER THAN THE GFS.

AS A RESULT THE GFS BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW CLOSE TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BUT THE MAJOR DIFFERENCES OCCUR TO OUR SOUTH AND ALSO
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THIS 
EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS LIFTING TO VFR TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND 
THEREAFTER AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. 
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE AN AREA 
OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. ONLY TRACE/DUSTING ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH 
SUNDAY EVENING. GUSTS TO AROUND 23 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE 
SETTLES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE 
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH 
SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF CENTRAL 
CANADA. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED 
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 212008
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
308 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

A GENERALLY QUIET MID-LATE FEBRUARY DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH 
SEVERAL SUBTLE FEATURES AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 
MAIN STORY IS THE CONSISTENTLY GROWING ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR. 
VISIBLE AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY GIVES A PRETTY GOOD VIEW OF THE 
ICE COVER TODAY...WHICH ALMOST COVERS THE ENTIRE LAKE. THERE ARE A 
FEW GAPS OR SLUSHY AREAS...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH-NORTHWEST 
SHORELINE...NEAR ISLE ROYALE...OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND FINALLY A 
GAP JUST TO THE EAST OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. WITH THE PROPER WIND 
DIRECTION (AROUND 340-350)...THERE WAS A STRONGER BAND THAT 
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUED INTO EARLY AFTERNOON 
BEFORE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTED TO BACK AND LIMIT THE FETCH OVER THE 
WATER. THAT STRONGER BAND DID LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF FLUFFY 
ACCUMULATION NEAR IRONWOOD...ALTHOUGH WEBCAMS INDICATED IT WAS VERY 
LOCALIZED. THESE VERY LOCALIZED AND NARROW BANDS ARE THE NORM WITH 
THE SMALL AREAS OF BREAKS IN THE ICE. THAT CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE 
PARTS OF THE KEWEENAW AND ESPECIALLY ALGER COUNTY WHERE THE WIND 
DIRECTION IS PARALLEL TO THE LONGER STRETCH OF SLUSHY ICE OVER THE 
SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE. WHERE THESE BANDS HAVE BEEN LOCATED...THEY HAVE 
BEEN PRODUCING UP TO AN HALF INCH AN HOUR ACCUMULATION...BUT ARE 
ONLY AROUND 2 MILES WIDE. ELSEWHERE...DIURNAL CU DEVELOPED AGAIN 
OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND HAS LED TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY 
AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...2PM TEMPERATURES 
HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 10 DEGREES AT KIWD/KCMX AND INTO THE LOWER 20S 
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 
FARTHER SOUTH INTO WISCONSIN...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH 
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW 
SHOWERS. AS THOSE PUSH EAST...THINK THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW 
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT 
CHANCES THROUGH MID EVENING. 

EXPECT THE NARROW BAND LAKE EFFECT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO STAY 
FAIRLY STEADY STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING (ALTHOUGH 
THE DIURNAL CU WITH DIMINISH)...AS THERE ARE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE 
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT. BUT AS MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO STREAM INTO 
THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT 
CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE LAKE EFFECT COVERAGE TO 
EXPAND. THIS IS DUE TO THE 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND -17C AT 
THE PRESENT TIME TO AROUND -26C AT 12Z SUNDAY. WITH THAT AMOUNT OF 
COLD AIR...EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH HEAT FLUX THROUGH THE THIN ICE 
AREAS AND ICE FREE GAPS TO PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING FOR LAKE EFFECT. 
THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS THOUGH. FIRST...MODELS SHOWING ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE BELOW 800MB DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT 
INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM 
SOUNDINGS FROM THIS MORNING...WONDERING IF THAT IS A LITTLE OVERDONE 
ON THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF. VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON ISN/T 
SHOWING MUCH OF ANYTHING FOR CLOUDS IN THAT AREA OF ONTARIO THIS 
AFTERNOON. THUS...WITH THE 12Z GEM HAVING THE BEST HANDLE ON THE 
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT IN THAT AREA...WITH TREND THAT DIRECTION 
FOR MOISTURE POTENTIAL. THIS KEEPS POPS GENERALLY IN THE ISOLATED-
SCATTERED REALM FOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS FOR TONIGHT 
AND SUNDAY MORNING...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF THE OPENINGS IN THE ICE OVER 
SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES OVER THE 
AREA...SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE 
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL LIMIT INVERSION HEIGHTS TO THE 3-5KFT RANGE. 
IF THERE WAS MORE OPEN WATER...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE 
STRONGER BANDS CAPABLE OF REACHING 7KFT...BUT THE LIMITED OVER THE 
LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY LOCALIZED BANDS IN CHECK. THAT 
COLD AIR WILL TRANSITION THE CLOUD FROM BEING WITHIN THE DGZ AND THE 
FLUFFIER FLAKES SEEN TODAY TO A SMALL/FINE FLAKE SNOW. WHILE THAT 
WILL KEEP THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK...IT WILL HELP TO REDUCE 
VISIBILITIES WITHIN THOSE NARROW BANDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY 
MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH 
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 
BUT AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN GUSTINESS ACROSS THE AREA 
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW BLOWING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. 
WITH THE CONCERNS IN THE MOISTURE AND EXPECTED VERY LOCALIZED NATURE 
OF THE BANDS...WILL KEEP TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY FROM 
A DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES IN THE FAVORED NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND 
LOCATIONS. 

AS THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES 
TO STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL PICKUP 
SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING LOWS FOR 
TONIGHT (TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO) AND WITH THE EXPECTED 
INCREASE IN WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE EXISTING WIND 
CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. THEN WITH THE BULK OF THE 
COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON...WILL SEE MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN AT OR BELOW ZERO FOR 
DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES...MAYBE REACHING 6 
DEGREES...WILL BE OVER FAR SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY. THE RECORD LOW 
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT OUR OFFICE FOR FEB 22 IS -5...WHICH IS THE 
FORECASTED HIGH FOR TOMORROW. BUT...WHEN FACTORING IN WHAT THE 
TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY BE AT MIDNIGHT (AROUND ZERO)...WE SHOULDN/T 
BREAK THAT RECORD. SINCE THE WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE 
DAY TOMORROW...WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE WEST STAY IN THE -20S AND 
FEEL CARRYING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY INTO MONDAY MORNING IS FINE 
OVER THE WEST. OVER THE EAST...STILL HAVE WIND CHILLS RISING 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SINCE 
THEY QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO CRITERIA DURING THE EVENING...OPTED TO 
EXTEND THOSE ADVISORIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TO SIMPLIFY THINGS 
AFTER DISCUSSING IT WITH THE LONG TERM SHIFT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

THE PERSISTENT 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A BRIEF 
RIDGE SETTING UP AROUND 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY OFF THE 
20/18Z GFS. THE 20/18Z AND 21/00Z ECMWF WERE LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH 
THE RIDGING...RESULTING IN MORE OF A GENERAL W-E FLOW.

INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH ANY SNOW 
SHOWERS WITH WINDS GREATER THAN 10-15KTS...TO INCORPORATE SOME OF 
THE SMALLER SNOW FLAKES THAT HAVE BEEN VERY AFFECTIVE AT REDUCING 
VIS. 

AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WILL START OUT THE PERIOD 
AT 12Z SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW 
ZERO...AND NW WINDS AROUND 5-10KTS PUSHING WIND CHILLS TO -25 TO -
30F CWA WIDE. WIND CHILL ADVISORY POSTED EARLIER THIS MORNING WILL 
GO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT MENOMINEE /WHICH MAY BE A BIT 
WARMER/. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE W HALF 
OF UPPER MI THROUGH SUNDAY AND ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LOOK FOR A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY 
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES ON WAA SW WINDS MONDAY NIGHT 
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY...AND TOP OUT TUESDAY IN THE 20S. 850MB TEMPS 
WILL BE ABLE TO WARM TO AROUND -10C AT 12Z TUESDAY. 

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF COLD WAVES WILL NOT BE TOO FAR 
BEHIND...HOVERING OVER ONTARIO TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE 
500MB LOW. WHILE THE LOW ITSELF SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC...EXPECT THE COLD 
AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -27C OVER UPPER MI WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST MORNINGS...THANKS TO 
RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WINDS AND ONLY A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR 
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR W LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE THE INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHLY 
DEPENDENT ON THE NEARLY FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR. CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS 
IN THE ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT 
E OF MARQUETTE THROUGH WHITEFISH POINT...WHICH WILL SEE THE LONGEST 
FETCH OFF ANY OPEN WATERS WITH THE N OR NW WINDS THAT WILL BE 
DOMINATING MUCH OF THIS FCST PERIOD.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARLY STACKED 
SFC-500MB LOW OVER N ONTARIO AT 06Z TUESDAY CROSSING JAMES BAY 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI 
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WHILE THE GFS IS PAINING 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW 
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THE ECMWF IS LESS IMPRESSIVE. DID NOT MAKE 
TOO MANY LARGE SCALE CHANGES FROM THE CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND AT THIS 
TIME...UNTIL A MORE STEADY SOLUTION IS ANTICIPATED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

EVEN WITH MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FROZEN OVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH 
HEAT COMING OFF THE LAKE TO LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT IN THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS SNOWBELTS. THE STRONGEST SNOW IS OCCURRING RIGHT AT 
KIWD THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A 
POCKET OF OPEN WATER OR SLUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE APOSTLE 
ISLANDS. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A FETCH 
TO LEAD TO VERY FLUFFY LAKE EFFECT OVER THE SITE. EXPECT THIS TO 
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS BACK MORE TO THE NW AND 
A LESS FAVORABLE FETCH FOR THE SITE. AT THE OTHER TWO SITES...THE 
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND LAKE INFLUENCES WILL 
LEAD TO PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS.

AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAINS FOR
SUNDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LIMITED
GAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT. WITH THE SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SMALLER
FLAKES AND BETTER VISIBILITY REDUCERS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
KIWD/KCMX TO SEE REDUCTIONS TO IFR CONDITIONS. BUT...IT WILL ALL
DEPEND ON THE WIND DIRECTION WITH THE ICE COVERAGE. DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE...ALSO DUE TO MODELS OVERDOING UPSTREAM
MOISTURE...OPTED TO LEAVE VISIBILITIES AT THOSE SITES AT LOW END
MVFR. AT KSAW...A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE POTENTIAL MOISTURE AND WINDS
NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE...HAVE JUST BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT TO PRIMARILY KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEPARTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS LEADING
TO ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BRUSH THE AREA AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE...EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-30KTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BUT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF GALES TO 35-40KTS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS
THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES TOWARDS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30KTS AND REMAIN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS ON
TUESDAY. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS THE STRONG HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ SUNDAY TO NOON EST 
     /11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ001>007-009>011-013-014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KDLH 200921
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS TODAY AND LAKE EFFECT ALONG 
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

SNOW WAS PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE NORTHLAND WITH SNOW REPORTED OVER 
THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OUR CWA. AN AREA OF WAA WAS DRIVING MOST OF 
THE LIFT THIS MORNING AND THAT WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION 
TODAY. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TODAY AND GENERALLY 
AGREE ON SNOWFALL FROM A HALF TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS. THE ECMWF 
CONTINUES TO BE THE LIGHTEST ON SNOWFALL. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DEEPER SATURATED LAYER IN THE MAX DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SPOTS. OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH VSBYS AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY AN OB OR TWO
REPORTING LESS THAN 2SM...AND SOME OF THAT MAY BE
BLOWING/DRIFTING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR
MOST AREAS TODAY. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE MOST OF THE SNOW FALL
THIS MORNING. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG A
PORTION OF THE NORTH SHORE WHERE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CAUSE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF ICE
PRESENT BUT IT WILL ONLY TAKE A LITTLE OPEN/THIN ICE TO ADD SOME
TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST...THEN 
COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH 
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE HAVE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT 
SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL 
CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO WRING OUT SOME SNOW. 
ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. WE DID INCREASE 
POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY 
FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT. WE ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO THE 
ICE COVERAGE.

EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES TODAY. 
IT WILL BE COLDER FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE 
DIGITS ABOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE 15 TO 20 OVER 
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

THE COLD WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 
NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHLAND WILL SEE LONG PERIODS IN WHICH HIGH 
PRESSURE DOMINATE THE REGION...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE DRY 
WEATHER PATTERN. THERE IS NO POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL 
OPPORTUNITY IN SIGHT.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN COLD AS ANOTHER NW FLOW 
BRINGS ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
OVER SOUTH SASKATCHEWAN ON EARLY SUNDAY...WILL MOVE INTO THE 
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE IOWA REGION 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA AREA MONDAY. TEMPERATURES 
WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PROLONGED 
PERIOD OF DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF -25 DEGREES OR COLDER DURING THIS 
TIME.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NORTHERN CANADA. THIS BRING WARMER AIR TO THE 
NORTHLAND...BUT TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL STILL BE 
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO 
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF 
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND ITS COLD 
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

THE NORTHLAND WILL GET ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW 
NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE 
NORTH CENTRAL US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE
REGION...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SOME IFR CIGS/VSBYS AS WELL FOR A
TIME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17   7  14 -18 /  90  20  10   0 
INL  17  -7   4 -27 /  90  20  10   0 
BRD  23   7  13 -19 /  80  20  10   0 
HYR  17   9  18 -15 /  90  30  10  10 
ASX  17   8  18 -13 /  90  30  20  20 

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP





----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KAKQ 182124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
424 PM EST WED FEB 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING... 
THEN OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. BAND OF SNOW SHWRS TO ACCOMPANY ITS 
PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY END BY MIDNIGHT. KEPT A 2-3 HR 
WINDOW OF LIKELY POPS WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA WITH AN AREA OF CHC POPS 
BEHIND IT. ANY QUICK BURST OF SNOW COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK 1/2 INCH 
OVER MOST OF THE FA...HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE ERN SHORE WHERE AN 
UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. TIMING APPEARS TO BE 4-6 PM WEST OF 
I95...5-7 PM I95 CORRIDOR...6-8 PM NRN NECK/MIDDLE PEN...7-9 PM ERN 
SHORE...SERN VA/NE NC.  

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP OFF INLAND BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. WIND 
CHILLS HAVE BEEN FINE TUNED WITH THIS PACKAGE. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY 
COLD AIRMASS AND FORECASTED WINDS...HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY 
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH 
NOON FRIDAY. DOING IT THIS WAY TO INDICATE THE IMPACT THE COLD WILL 
HAVE THURSDAY DESPITE WIND CHILLS GOING ABOVE ZERO FOR A FEW HOURS 
THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE PIEDMONT...TO MID TEENS SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THU/FRI. THIS WILL 
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FRIGID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. DANGEROUSLY 
COLD AIR IS ON THE WAY...QUITE POSSIBLY THE COLDEST WE'VE SEEN OVER 
OUR REGION IN QUITE SOME TIME (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). 12Z DATA 
EVEN SUGGESTING SOME POTOMAC RIVER...CHESAPEAKE BAY STREAMERS THU 
AFTERNOON. THINK IT WILL BE TOO DRY IN LOWER LVLS FOR ANY FLURRIES 
TO OCCUR. 

HIGHS THU IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS 
LATEST BRUTAL COLD AIR SURGE WILL COME THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING...AS 
SFC HIGH OVER KY SLOWLY BUILDS E. BEST CHC FOR WINDS TO DECOUPLE IS 
WEST OF I95 AFTER MIDNIGHT AS 1032+MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVRHD THU 
NGT/FRI MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE MOS GUID IS HAVING A HARD TIME 
WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK...SO FORECASTED MINS WILL REMAIN BLO EVEN 
THE COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF ZERO WEST
OF I-95 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST (AROUND 10 F AT SE 
VA/NE NC COAST).

SUNNY BUT CONTINUED COLD WITH LESS WIND FRI DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS AGAIN UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. 

RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. ANTHR VRY COLD NIGHT WITH 
INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES 
FROM THE SW. WINDS TURN SOUTH...BUT TMPS WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH 
TIME TO DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES BEFORE BEGINNING TO RISE 
LATE.   

CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR SAT EVEN AT THIS POINT. MODELS SOMEWHAT 
SLOWER AT BRINGING IN THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN SAT. (GFS THE FASTEST 
IN THE MORNING...NAM A BIT SLOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. 12Z/18 ECMWF IS 
THE OUTLIER WITH KEEPING SAT DRY ACROSS THE AREA AND MOST OF SAT 
NIGHT). WILL GO WITH A MODEL COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND BRING N SOME 
LIGHT WINTER PCPN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT MORN...AND OVERSPREADING 
THE NRN HALF OF THE FA SAT AFTERNOON. RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. EVEN 
AFTER THE COLD START...TMPS BY LATE IN THE DAY RISE INTO THE M-U30S. 
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SAT EVENING. KEPT CHC TO 
LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS TMPS REMAIN 
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER FLOW REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS WRN CONUS RIDGE 
THRU THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE 
ERN CONUS TROUGH THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEKEND...AND A RETURN TO 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE OH VALLEY 
INTO THE NE STATES SUN. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE NE 
STATES...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT. 
LOW LEVEL SWLY/RETURN  FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE SUN AFTERNOON. 
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE 
SUFFICIENT UVM FOR PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT SUN AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED 
LIKELY POPS. WAA/THICKNESS RISES WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS...BUT HAVE 
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE DUE TO LINGERING SNOW PACK. HIGHS GENERALLY 
LOW-MID 50S. FRONT CLEARS THE COAST SUN NIGHT...BUT STALLS OFF THE 
SE COAST AS WSW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER 
THE MIDWEST SUN NIGHT...AS COLD/DRY AIR SURGES INTO THE 
MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP TO PUSH OFFSHORE SUN 
NIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP OVER THE 
NE ZONES. THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THRU 
MID WEEK...WITH SUPPRESSING THE PRECIP OVER THE SE COAST/GULF 
STREAM. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...BUT KEEPS PRECIP 
ALONG THE SE COAST MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS 
ALONG THE COASTAL BOUNDARY TUES. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR 
UNCERTAINTY SE VA/NE NC MON NIGHT-TUES. AT THIS TIME...THERMAL 
PROFILES AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP WOULD BE 
FROZEN. SFC LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDS...BEFORE THE NEXT 
CLIPPER FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY 
WITH AN INCOMING SCT DECK AROUND 4000FT AGL BY LATE THIS AFTN.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY EARLY EVENING AND
WILL EXIT THE COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AROUND
2000FT AGL AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN -SHSN BTWN 18/2300Z AND
19/0300Z. A TEMPO GROUP FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR VSBYS (1/2SM)
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30-35KT WAS ADDED THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SKIES CLEAR
QUICKLY AND A COLD AIR SURGE WILL COMMENCE. NW WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED (GUSTS 25-30KT) LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON
SATURDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CIGS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT ARCTIC FRONT LOCATES OVER THE PIEDMONT. WINDS GENERALLY SELY
AOB 15 KT...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. THE ARCTIC FRONT
BLASTS OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH FLOW BECOMING W-NW POST
FRONTAL. STRONG/STREADY LOW LEVEL CAA IN TANDEM WITH A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN
A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE WATERS. STRONG SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT AND GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AND GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 KT. FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY
AT THE ONSET OF CAA. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WLY COMPONENT TO THE
WIND AND SHORT DURATION HAVE PREVENTED AN UPGRADE TO GALE
HEADLINES. HAVE OPTED TO MONITOR AND ISSUE SMW AS NEEDED. AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF W-NW WINDS 20-30 KT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
THRU THURS NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NE COAST AND
1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EWD. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS TO 5 TO 9 FT TONIGHT THRU THURS NIGHT.
WAVES 3-5 FT...UP TO 6 FT IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. IN ADDITION TO
STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WAVES/SEAS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...ALLOWING WINDS TO
FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
OFF FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SAT WITH SLY FLOW
RETURNING. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS SUN...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

GALE HEADLINES IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS IN EFFECT THRU THURS
MORNING...WITH THE NRN WATERS (NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND) RUNNING
THRU FRI MORNING. SCA HEADLINES NOW IN EFFECT THRU FRI MORNING.

LATEST MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS AN AREA OF ICE IN THE
POCOMOKE SOUND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW ICE CHUNKS BREAKING OFF
INTO THE NRN BAY. STRONG W-NW WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ICE IN
THE SOUND...BUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE TEENS MAY ENHANCE THE ICE FIELD THRU FRI. WILL MENTION WAVES
IN ICE FREE WATER IN CWF.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN BLOWOUT TIDES. WATER
LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO 1.0 FOOT OR MORE BELOW MLLW
DURING THE LOW TIDE CYCLES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN THE TEENS. AT
RICHMOND...THE LAST TIME THERE WERE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS WAS BACK ON JAN 29TH-30TH IN 1966...WHEN
BOTH DAYS HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGS F.

THERE WAS ONLY ONE TIME THAT RICHMOND HAD A MINIMUM BELOW ZERO
AFTER FEBRUARY 11TH. THIS WAS A READING OF MINUS 1 ON FEB 28 IN
1934. THE LAST TIME RICHMOND HAD A LOW TEMPERATURE BELOW ZERO WAS
ON JANUARY 28 IN 2000 WITH A READING OF MINUS 1.

THE LAST TIME RICHMOND HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE ONLY IN THE TEENS
WAS FEB 4 1996...18 DEGS F.

THE LAST TIME NORFOLK HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE ONLY IN THE TEENS 
WAS JAN 19 1994...13 DEGS F.

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES... 

     ...THU 2/19....FRI 2/20
RIC... 27 IN 1903   30 IN 1947 
ORF... 30 IN 1993   29 IN 1904 
SBY... 25 IN 1993   24 IN 1959

RECORD LOW MIN TEMPERATURES

     ...THU 2/19....FRI 2/20 
RIC... 10 IN 1979    3 IN 1979 
ORF... 14 IN 1903   13 IN 1896 
SBY...  9 IN 1936    3 IN 1979

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR 
     MDZ021>025.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY 
     FOR NCZ012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR 
     NCZ013>017-030>032-102.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY 
     FOR VAZ048-049-060>083-085-087>090-092.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR 
     VAZ095>100.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR 
     VAZ084-086-091-093-094.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...





----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KAPX 160845
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
345 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD WITH A VERY
DRY AND COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. 00Z APX SOUNDING PWAT WAS AN
ASTOUNDINGLY LOW 0.02"...AND EARLIER CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE -15 TO -30F RANGE. THERE WAS
LITTLE IF ANY WIND AT THE TIME...SO WIND CHILLS DID NOT FACTOR
INTO THE FRIGID EQUATION. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE WASN'T MUCH
OF AN ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL TROUGHING ACROSS NRN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO. THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN HUDSON BAY...WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW INTO THE DAKOTAS. PWATS WITH THIS COLD
FRONT WEREN'T VERY IMPRESSIVE...INCREASED ONLY TO AROUND 0.15" AND
WAA/DYNAMIC FORCING FAIRLY WEAK. THERE WAS ONLY SOME LIGHT 3-6SM
SNOWS SEEN IN SW ONTARIO AND MN....AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MORE
EXCITING WEATHER WAS DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...WHERE A MUCH MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...AND SPREADING IT
EASTWARD. 

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

NOT TOO MUCH EXCITEMENT FOR NRN MICHIGAN. LIGHT WIND SCENARIO
IS KEEPING LAKE INSTABILITY OUT OVER THE LAKES...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND A SW
WINDS DEVELOPS. THIS WILL WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO PULL SOME OF THE
LAKE CONVECTION (CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES) BACK INTO PARTS OF NW
LOWER...GENERALLY LEELANAU COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO MANISTEE COUNTY.
THIS CONVECTION MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE
COUNTIES...IMPACTING MAINLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE. THESE SNOWS WILL
PROGRESS UP THE AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL
HAVE TO TRAVERSE MORE ICE...PER YESTERDAY AFETRNOON'S LATEST HI
RES MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WILL HAVE A LIMITING FACTOR ON
THE INTENSITY AND INLAND EXTENT OF THOSE SNOWS. DO EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME FLURRIES MAKING IT INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY/STRAITS
REGION. WINDS DO INCREASE ENOUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND RIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING...WHEN HE SFC COLD FRONT STARTS
TO MAKE IT'S WAY INTO NRN MICHIGAN. SYNOPTICALLY...WITH FAIRLY
WEAK FORCING AND PWATS AT ONLY 0.15"...CANNOT SEE MORE THAN A HALF
AN INCH ANYWHERE. ADD IN THE LAKES...AND COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES
SPREADING INTO MAINLY NW LOWER...AND ESPECIALLY IN LEELANAU
COUNTY...AND COUNTIES SOUTH. THIS IS WHERE THERE IS LESS ICE AND A
LONGER DURATION OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TOO...AS WAA DOES ALLOW MORE FAVORABLE H8 TEMPS/DGZ AND
LIFT FOCUSED RIGHT ON IT.

SO...CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PULLS THROUGH. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE 9F-16F RANGE WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN CLOUDS 0F TO 10F.
AT LEAST IT'S MORE TOLERABLE. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015

ANYONE OUT THERE HAVE A "RETURN TO SENDER" STAMP I CAN APPLY FOR OUR 
MID/LATE WEEK WEATHER? I LIKE A GOOD COLD AIR OUTBREAK JUST AS MUCH 
AS THE NEXT WEATHER GEEK...BUT THIS PATTERN IS STARTING TO BECOME 
LESS THAN AMUSING. AT LEAST IT'S A FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST 
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...FEATURING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF 
YET ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY (JUST A 
SHADE SLOWER THAN EARLIER PROJECTIONS). THAT FEATURE WILL BE 
FOLLOWED BY DEEP UPPER TROUGHING EGREGIOUSLY TRESPASSING THROUGH THE 
GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME DOWNRIGHT AMUSING 500MB TEMPERATURES 
APPROACHING -50C INDICATIVE OF JUST HOW COLD THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE 
INTO MIDWEEK. OF COURSE...WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS SETUP IN 
PLACE...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE PRIMARILY TEMPERATURES...THOUGH 
WITH SOME REAL CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS - 
PRIMARILY DOWNSTATE AS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES ABUTTING OUR CWA HAS 
REALLY FROZEN UP OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF 
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST FOR A 
TIME. HAVING SAID THAT...MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND IT IS VERY 
INTERESTING TO SEE A HUGE HOLE IN QPF SIGNALS INTO NORTHWEST 
LOWER...LIKELY INDICATIVE OF EXPANSIVE ICE COVER IN THE MODELS...AND 
BACKED UP BY YESTERDAY'S HI-RES VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING LAKE 
MICHIGAN FROZEN DOWN TO SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT. STILL...WITH 
THAT SAID...SECONDARY TROUGH/LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH AXIS WORKING DOWN 
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY CONNECT 
US UP TO A BIT MORE OPEN (THOUGH NOT BY MUCH) LAKE SUPERIOR...AT 
LEAST SUGGESTIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BETTER PERIOD OF SNOW 
SHOWERS SLIDING DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER. HONESTLY NOT THAT 
IMPRESSED WITH THE SETUP GIVEN ALL THAT ICE AND TRANSIENT NATURE OF 
ANY LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE.

THE MORE INTERESTING WEATHER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO 
OCCUR PRIMARILY DOWNSTATE AS OUR DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVERHEAD. 
SHARP LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC NATURE OF THE FLOW COUPLED WITH A LIGHT 
WIND REGIME BELOW 900MB STRONGLY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOLOW 
DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY ONE OF SEVERAL LAKE-INDUCED SURFACE 
TROUGHS...WITH A VERY STABLE SIGNAL FOR FORCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE DOWN INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER WHERE A PERIOD OF 
INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS LOOKS QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUCKED 
BENEATH AN AXIS OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THAT SNOW BAND MAY JUST 
SKIRT FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (LOOKING AT YOU MANISTEE AND BENZIE) 
BUT WITH A TREND FOR LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO LIKELY WORK IN BOTH FROM 
ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN ICE COVER TO DICTATE LITTLE 
MORE THAN SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR 
MUCH OF THE CWA. IN SUCH A MESOSCALE-DOMINATE SETUP...CONFIDENCE IS 
NATURALLY LOW AND NEAR TERM UPDATES WILL BE REQUIRED...BUT HONESTLY 
BELIEVE MUCH OF THE ACTION WILL RESIDE OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. 
INSTEAD...WE WILL DEAL WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF VERY COLD AIR...AS H8 
TEMPS DIVE BACK TOWARD -30C BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...SUGGESTING HIGHS 
BACK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW ZERO BUT 
HIGHLY DICTATED BY HARD-TO-FORECAST CLOUD TRENDS. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015

INCREASINGLY QUIET WEATHER APPEARS ON TAP THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST THE 
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FIRMS UP ITS PRESENCE ACROSS 
THE AREA. THAT SETUP AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT WINDS SHOULD RID MANY 
AREAS OF ANY SNOW SHOWER THREAT WITH OFFSHORE CIRCULATIONS 
DOMINANT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME EXTREMELY COLD READINGS ONCE 
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD. ECMWF 2-METER 
GUIDANCE ALREADY INDICATING SUB-MINUS 20 READINGS IN MANY 
AREAS...AND PROVIDED CLOUD ISSUES DON'T CREEP UP...THIS LOOKS LIKE A 
GOOD GAMBLE. AFTER THAT...LOOKING A BIT MORE "MILD" INTO THE WEEKEND 
AS WE RELAX THE OVERALL DEPTH OF TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT 
LAKES...THOUGH WITH A GOOD DEAL OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM 
THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. AT THE MOMENT...THE MAJORITY 
OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN THE 
STREAMS FOR A MORE STRUNG OUT (BUT GULF MOISTURE-LOADED) SYSTEM 
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THIS PATTERN DOES HAVE BETTER PHASING 
POTENTIAL. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH IT ALL UNFOLD OVER THE COMING 
DAYS. AFTER ALL...WE HAVE PLENTY TO KEEP OURSELVES BUSY UP UNTIL 
THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015

VFR TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND SOME SHSN LIKELY AT PLN
MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXPANDING INTO TVC/MBL IN THE EVENING.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL
DRIFT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TO APPROACH LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN WI BY LATE MONDAY.
MID CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT. LOW-END VFR
STRATOCU WILL MOVE INTO MBL/TVC/PLN MONDAY...AS WEAK SW LOW-
LEVEL FLOW BEGINS. LAKE-EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE AT
PLN DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPANDING INTO TVC/MBL DURING THE
EVENING. 

CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KHUN 111008
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
408 AM CST WED FEB 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE 
NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL BE 
CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG THE WEST 
COAST AND TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE 
CENTRAL/EAST CONUS. THREE DISTINCT INTRUSIONS OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR 
ENTERING THE TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL RESULT IN A  
COLD PERIOD FOR THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE VERY 
LIMITED IN OUR AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST TWO FRONTS...HOWEVER A 
DIFFERENT SETUP AHEAD OF THE THIRD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY ALLOW 
FOR A HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EVENT. MORE DETAILS FOLLOW BELOW. 
 
CHANGES ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE NE PAC 
WHICH WILL FORCE A COLD PATTERN FOR THE TN VALLEY FOR THE UPCOMING 
PERIOD. THE LATEST MULTI-SPECTRAL SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL 
RIDGE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DEEP MOIST PLUME 
EXTENDING INTO WRN CANADA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THIS IS FORCING  
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES 
INTO THE UPR MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. GOES WATER 
VAPOR AND MODIS AIRMASS IMAGERY INDICATE AT LEAST TWO PRIMARY 
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PUSHING SWRD IN THIS REGION. THE LEADING EDGE IS 
LIKELY A MIX OF NE PAC AND CONTINENTAL/CANADIAN AIRMASSES...HOWEVER 
THE TRAILING AIRMASS IS MODIFIED ARCTIC. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL 
PUSH INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT...AROUND MIDNIGHT...WHILE THE 
SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES ABOUT SIX HOURS OR SO LATER 
EARLY THURS MORNING. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD DAY TODAY...TEMPS ON 
THURS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. 
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA IN ASSOC/W THE COLD 
AIRMASS AND CAN BE SEEN CURRENTLY IN SAT IMAGERY IN THE UPR 
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT 
INSOLATION...HELPING TO SUPPRESS TEMP RISES THURS...BUT SUFFICIENT 
MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES 
AND/OR LGT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW 
SHOWERS WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST...OVER PORTIONS OF EAST TENN AND 
THE SOUTHERN APPS. HOWEVER...LIFT ALONG THE PLATEAU WARRANTS AT 
LEAST A 20 POP MENTION FOR NOW. 

AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVHD THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING...LOW 
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID TEENS. A FEW OF OUR 
NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH GOOD COLD AIR DRAINAGE MAY 
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WHILE BELOW NORMAL...THESE TEMPS WILL 
BE ABOVE RECORD VALUES FOR THE 13TH (-11F FOR MUSCLE SHOALS AND 7F 
FOR HUNTSVILLE). 

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH YET 
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. SUCCESSIVE 
LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE TENDED TO DECREASE THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS 
RESULTING TROUGH AND THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN OUR 
AREA...PRIMARILY SHOVING THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. NEVERTHELESS...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ASSOC/W THIS 
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CROSS THE AREA PROBABLY BEGINNING SAT 
AFTERNOON. A NARROW LINE OF MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY EVEN WEAK 
ISENTROPIC ASCENT CENTERED ARND 850MB MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT 
CROSSES THE AREA. A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE 
QUESTION...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ALTITUDES. HOWEVER...DRY AIR 
ADVECTION AT/NEAR THE SFC MAY PREVENT ANY FLURRIES OR LGT SNOW 
SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE SFC. THUS...NO MENTION AT THIS TIME IN THE 
OFFICIAL FCST. TEMPS ON SUNDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW/MID 30S 
FOR MOST LOCATIONS DESPITE THE PROSPECT FOR GOOD INSOLATION FOR MOST 
OF THE DAY.  

FURTHER STEEPENING OF THE RIDGE IN THE NE PAC WILL LEAD TO 
REINFORCEMENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN 
CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT EVEN THE LARGE SCALE DETAILS YET ARE 
FAR FROM CERTAIN. 00Z LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A VERY SHORT 
WAVELENGTH RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PAC...WHICH WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO 
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE 
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SFC CYCLOGENESIS THEN TAKES PLACE IN THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND RESULTS IN SW-NE TILTING OF THE POLAR FRONT AND 
STRONGER WAA OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS 
OUT...THEN A RAPID WARMUP WOULD TAKE PLACE BEGINNING MONDAY INTO 
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AN INSPECTION OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWS A 
WIDE RANGE OF SCENARIOS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE 
POLAR FRONT AND THUS THE MOVEMENT/TRACK OF ANY SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW. 
SOME TRACKS ARE STILL TO OUR SOUTH. ALTHOUGH...SEVERAL ARE CLUSTERED 
WITH TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA OR TO OUR NORTH...INCLUDING THE 
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...THE MOST LIKELY 
SCENARIO AT THIS POINT PLACES THE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND 
TN VALLEY REGION. THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT THIS 
THINKING. AT THE ONSET OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION 
ALOFT ON MONDAY AFTN...TEMPS MAY BE BRIEFLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 
SOME SNOW FLAKES OR ICE PELLETS MIXING WITH RAIN. CHANCES APPEAR 
SLIM HOWEVER...AND THE DETAILS OF THE FCST FOR THIS PERIOD ARE STILL 
NOT CLEAR WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE. NEVERTHELESS...ROBUST 
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SUFFICIENT ELEVATED 
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER MAINLY FOR ABOUT THE 
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. 

AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND DEEP/COLD ADVECTION BEGINS AROUND THE 
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RA/-SN MIX 
COULD BE POSSIBLE AND WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST. 

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1119 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 2 KFT CONTINUES ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS HAVE MADE
IT INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHERE THEY MAY LINGER AROUND UNTIL
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. 

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    58  30  35  16 /   0  10  10   0 
SHOALS        59  29  36  15 /   0  10  10   0 
VINEMONT      58  31  36  14 /   0  10  10   0 
FAYETTEVILLE  55  29  32  13 /   0  10  10   0 
ALBERTVILLE   57  32  36  20 /   0  10  10   0 
FORT PAYNE    57  31  36  16 /   0  10  10   0 

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$ 

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE 
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 062223
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AKST FRI FEB 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS UNTIL THE MIDRANGE. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER YAKUTAT AND KODIAK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROUGH
IS BROADER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS. SINCE
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL RUNS IS JUST SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES...IN GENERAL WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE
THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. 

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...552 HPA BLOCKING RIDGE NEAR THE GULF OF
ANADYR IS SLOWLY BEING PUSHED TO THE WEST AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN
OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND RIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
A 501 DAM LOW MOVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MERGE
WITH THE 500 DAM LOW OVER YAKUTAT THAT FORMED IN THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OUT OF CANADA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT.
THE LOW OVER YAKUTAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON
TONIGHT AS A 497 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SHELIKOF STRAIT
TONIGHT. THE LOW OVER THE YUKON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. THE LOW OVER
THE SHELIKOF STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT OVER
SAND POINT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN LOOP BACK OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND MOVE TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARLY MONDAY. AS THE LOW
LOOPS BACK NORTH A 508 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVE WEST BEFORE MERGING WITH A LOW IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC. AT 850 HPA...20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM LIES FROM
POINT HOPE TO BETTLES TO DENALI AND BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIE
FROM BARROW TO KOTZEBUE TO BETHEL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
BELOW ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE 20 BELOW
ISOTHERM BEGINS MOVING BACK TO THE EAST AND WILL LIE FROM BARROW
TO RUBY TO HEALY AND BY MONDAY MORNING WILL LIE FROM BARROW TO
BETTLES TO TOK.

SURFACE...A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST FROM A
983MB LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE ARCTIC FROM A
1045MB RIDGE OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC COAST. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A 1042MB
CENTER MOVING TO JUST NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND AND A 1040MB CENTER
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ANADYR. A 1028MB CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH A 1026MB CENTER
DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS EARLY SATURDAY. A 965MB LOW
OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES WEST AND THE RIDGE OVER
RUSSIA BUILDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...AND THE RIDGE OVER THE YUKON
TERRITORY BUILDS...THE GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND WILL
STRENGTHEN. THE BUILDING RIDGES WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE WINDS OVER
THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AS A SECOND FRONT SWEEPS DOWN
FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC. 

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CANADA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH TO THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA SO EAST OF NUIQSUT WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONE 203 AND 206. WINDS
KICKED UP A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED AND VISIBILITY IS DOWN
NEAR ZERO SO WILL UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD FOR ZONE 204 THIS
EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
STRENGTHENING WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST...WILL NEED TO ISSUE
SOME WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 201...202...AND 205.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE SATURDAY WITH THE WINDS COMING
DOWN...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWN.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WINDS INCREASING IN GENERAL AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH AND THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND WEST IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWN WIND CHILL VALUES
ARE FALLING. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES FOR ZONES
207...209...AND 213.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOME WINDS OVER THE HILLS TO 25 MPH DEVELOPING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL
OCCUR ON SUMMITS. COLDEST AREAS WILL CONTINUE BE THE FORTYMILE
COUNTRY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S BELOW.

4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...STILL LOOKING LIKE RIDGING WEAKENS TUESDAY
AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE.
THIS WILL PUSH WARM AIR NORTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK UP
TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR SLIGHTLY WARMER.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 06/1535Z AND NPP
VIIRS AT 06/1511Z CLEARLY SHOW THE STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PATCHY
STRATUS IS ALSO SHOWING UP IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WEST OF FORT
YUKON AND AROUND INDIAN MOUNTAIN. OUT WEST THE STRATUS CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN BERING STRAIT AND WESTERN ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. A
QUICK LOOK AT THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 06/1845Z NOT
SHOWING INDICATING MUCH AS FAR AS POOR CONDITIONS. 

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ218-AKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-
PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 15


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 060305
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
905 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015

.UPDATE...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS A RESULT OF STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION...SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DUE TO
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTRIBUTING TO NEAR STEADY TEMPS THIS
EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MOVES FURTHER EAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW
DEGREES ONCE THE WIND SUBSIDES SO MAY LOWER A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
CURRENT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...RECENT DESCENT TAMDAR SOUNDING INTO KMKE
REPORTED 46KT WINDS AT 1.5KFT RESULTING IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER 06Z AS
UPSTREAM WEAK SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SRN WI. OTRW...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU FRI. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION OF
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION LATER FRI INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT MAY RESULT IN STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT FRI NGT AS HIGHER SFC DEWPTS MOVE INTO THE REGION. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE LOW CIGS AT THIS POINT. 

&&

.MARINE...STATUS QUO ON ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVY. LAKESHORE
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO REPORT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE TNGT WHICH WILL ALLOW GUSTINESS
TO SUBSIDE. 

HI RES MODIS AQUA IMAGE FROM TODAY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL ICE COVER
THROUGHOUT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING MAY
CAUSE SOME OF THE ICE TO THIN AND BREAK UP. WARMER TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD ALSO ERODE THE ICE COVER. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015/ 

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE OVER THE REGION SOUTH OF 
WISCONSIN TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS NORTHERN 
WISCONSIN. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST 
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO WEAKEN GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DUE 
TO A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE H5 SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN 
WISCONSIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE PROGGING ANY FORM OF 
PRECIPITATION TO STAY NORTH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT ENTIRELY 
IMPOSSIBLE FOR A FEW FLURRIES TO FALL IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF 
COUNTIES IN OUR CWA.

SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL A STRONG 
PUSH OF H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. 
BKN TO OVC SKIES SHOULD STICK AROUND OUR CWA TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES 
DO LOOK TO REACH NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES AROUND THE CWA DUE TO DECENT 
H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION. 12Z GFS MODEL IS PROGGING H85 TEMPERATURES 
TO REACH 4-5C IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE EITHER THROUGH THE CWA OR JUST 
EXITING AT 12Z SATURDAY. SREF PROB OF VSBY < 3 MILES JUMPS TO 80 PCT 
IN WEST 1/2 BY 06Z SAT AND CWA WIDE BY 12Z...BUT MOS GUIDANCE HOLDS 
VSBY IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE SO WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG FOR NOW.  
RELATIVELY SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTH BELOW INVERSION AND LACK OF OMEGA 
LEADS TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT REDUCED CHANCES FOR 
MEASURABLE SO LOWERED POPS. STILL COULD BE SLICK WHERE THE PATCHY 
DRIZZLE DOES FALL WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. 

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS ELEVATED 
STRENGTHENING THE INVERSION...WITH SOME DRYING SHRINKING CLOUD DEPTH 
SO CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE LOWERS EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN 
CWA. NO BIG JUMP IN SURFACE TEMPS DUE TO INVERSION BUT SHOULD SEE 
READINGS SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 30S. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG 
THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH COULD SEE VISIBILITIES IMPROVE FOR A TIME IN 
THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. 

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

VARIABILITY IN TRACK AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW HAVING A BIG IMPACT 
ON DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPES DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE 
VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE. FORCING FOCUSES BETTER CHANCES TO THE 
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SEE CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS 
SRN WISCONSIN AS LOW APPROACHES AND WITH DEFORMATION ZONE CROSSING 
AREA SUNDAY. CONSENSUS TEMPS BRINGS A WINTRY MIX...WITH MAINLY 
FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS 
IN THE NORTH WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM

COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WITH A PERIOD OF 
NE FLOW BEHIND LOW SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. 
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER WITH JUST BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE 
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST 
AND CWA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A MIX OF SNOW 
AND SLEET SOUTH...WITH ALL SNOW NORTH. MEAGER SNOW/LIQUID RATIONS 
UNDER 10:1 WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH AND 
UNDER AN INCH SOUTH WITH THE POSSIBLE MIX. QUIET BUT TURNING COLDER 
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO BELOW ZERO LOWS 
THURSDAY NIGHT. 

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 
15 TO 20 KTS TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND 
SHEAR NEAR 45 KTS WILL OCCUR AT 2000 METERS DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER 
DECOUPLING THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH 
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 
CONTINUES THROUGH 3 AM FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD GUST BETWEEN 15 
AND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER 3 AM 
FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD TURN TO A MORE SOUTHERLY 
DIRECTION BY LATER FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
UPDATE...MBK


----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 052232
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
132 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z RUNS. INITIALIZED WELL AT 18Z
AT THE SURFACE. NO SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS UNTIL 132
HOURS OR SO. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF TO NUDGE THE
TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. 

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...553 HPA BLOCKING RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF ANADYR WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ARCTIC.
RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY WITH THE ZONAL FLOW EXTENDING EAST TO THE
BEAUFORT SEA TODAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MAINLAND AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY WILL DIG SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH A
511 DAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER YAKUTAT AND BECOMING STATIONARY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENS AND IS ABSORBED BY A 497 DAM LOW
THAT DEVELOPS OVER KODIAK ISLAND. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
80N TONIGHT AND DIVE SOUTH TO THE ARCTIC COAST BEFORE NOON FRIDAY
WITH A 504 DAM LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PRUDHOE
BAY...THE LOW DISSIPATES RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS ABSORBED BY
THE LOW OVER YAKUTAT...AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE
WEST OVER SOUTHERN SIBERIA AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE. AT 850 HPA...20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM LIES
FROM BARROW TO YAKUTAT THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO
CELSIUS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM WILL
MOVE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING TO LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO BETTLES TO
DENALI AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT 20 BELOW OR COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
LIE OVER ALL BUT THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM WILL
LIE FROM BARROW T