GOES-R Proving Ground - Area Forecast Discussions

Area Forecast Discussions

These National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussions reference MODIS, which is provided as part of the GOES‑R Proving Ground.

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FXUS63 KDLH 280845
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
245 AM CST Thu Feb 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Thu Feb 28 2019

An upper low will move out of the Arctic into northern
Saskatchewan today then head south reaching the southern
Saskatchewan/Manitoba border by 00Z Saturday. A fast quasi-zonal
flow will occur across the Northland prior to this upper low
nearing the region with a shortwave arriving Friday bringing a
chance for light snow to much of the Northland.

Portions of northern Minnesota will be brushed by the southern
portions of an area of low pressure that will track through
Manitoba into Ontario today. Clouds will increase over northern
Minnesota into far northern Wisconsin through the day and there
may be some flurries over parts of far northern Minnesota. Highs
will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, generally from 20 to
25.

Light snow will spread southwest to northeast through much of the
Northland on Friday with snow likely over all but far northern
Minnesota by Friday afternoon. Snow amounts will vary from less
than an inch along the International Border to 1 to 3 inches
elsewhere Friday into Friday evening. Areas south of US Highway
2, including northern Wisconsin will have the best chance at
seeing the higher accumulation. Highs will again be below normal
and range from the upper teens to mid twenties.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Thu Feb 28 2019

Overall, the extended forecast period continues to show mostly dry
conditions, with temperatures continuing to be near to well-below
seasonal average. Dangerous wind chills will be likely this
upcoming weekend.

The remnants of a compact mid-level shortwave, progged to be
situated over the SE SD/NW IA/SW MN region, will continue to
translate eastward Friday night and Saturday morning, resulting in
some light accumulating snowfall, mainly over our eastern areas.
Generally between 0.5 to 1.5 inches of new snow accumulation is
expected Friday evening (on top of what falls Friday morning and
afternoon), with lighter amounts possible for adjacent areas of
northeast Minnesota. This could lead to some slick road conditions
for the Friday evening commute. As the compact wave shifts eastward,
a large-scale upper-level low will develop over Manitoba, and
continue over northern Ontario through the upcoming weekend. This
upper-level low should help to usher in some arctic air,
characterized by 850 mb temperatures in the -20 to -30 degree C
range. This, coupled with some gusty winds, will lead to dangerous
wind chill values between -25 to -40 degrees Saturday night/Sunday
morning, and again for Sunday night/Monday morning. Overnight lows
over the weekend will fall into the teens below zero. Highs on
Sunday will only warm into the single digits above zero.

The upper-level low will eventually move out of the region during
the early part of next week, but a few additional shortwaves will
move through the region Monday and Tuesday, which could bring some
cloud cover and chances of light snow. The main impact will most
likely be along the Lake Superior snowbelt region, where prolonged
chances of lake effect snow will be possible. However, the lake
effect snow potential will largely depend on how much lake ice there
is. The latest MODIS satellite imagery from yesterday shows most of
western Lake Superior is covered in lake ice, and with temperatures
not expected to warm to above freezing through the upcoming week,
lake ice coverage should remain quite dominant. However, by mid-
week, temperatures will rebound a bit, but remain below freezing, as
high pressure ridging builds in from the west. High temperatures
could make a return to the 20s above zero for Wednesday and
Thursday.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Wed Feb 27 2019

High pressure nearby has resulted in VFR for the first half of the
forecast. Some flurries may affect INL after 09Z and have a VCSH
mention due to low confidence in timing. By mid morning, MVFR
cigs will begin to push into the vicinity of INL/HIB/BRD ahead of
the next round of light snow/area of low pressure.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 21 3 21 2 / 0 10 80 30
INL 20 -4 19 -5 / 10 10 20 20
BRD 20 0 20 -2 / 0 10 80 10
HYR 23 2 24 2 / 0 10 80 50
ASX 24 6 23 6 / 0 0 80 60

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...JTS
AVIATION...GSF

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FXUS63 KGRR 240834
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
330 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

- Widespread strong and damaging winds expected today.

- Winter weather concerns this afternoon and tonight, with Blizzard
conditions possible across Central Lower MI.

- Turning colder tonight through Tuesday which is a concern for
those that will lose power, which is likely to be many.

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

The storm remains on track in the latest model runs and no big
changes were made to the forecast. The depth and track of the low
have been very consistent. Strong and damaging winds are almost
certain today with gusts in the middle of the night across portions
of MO and IL to in excess of 60 mph, and the low will only continue
to deepen today as it works northeast through the area. A concern is
the fact that this low will move on a track closer to our area than
the 1998 Fall Storm, the Fitzgerald Storm of 1975 or the Armistice
Day storm of 1940. All of those systems tracked further west across
Wisconsin. This storm will move across Lake Michigan today which
will put the rise/fall pressure couplet and therefore the strongest
winds right through our area. Model cross sections in BUFKIT
continue to show mixing depths tapping 65 knots around 4,000ft.
Winds in excess of 50 mph are a certainty, with 60 mph likely and
even higher values possible. We are looking at widespread power
outages some of which that will likely last days. This is especially
a concern with temperatures crashing into the teens tonight and
remaining there Monday. The strong winds will reach the far south
around daybreak this morning sweeping northeast through the day. By
mid afternoon the entire area will be experiencing high winds. The
worst of the winds look to occur from around noon through midnight
tonight.

As for the snow side of this system, we should flip precipitation
over to snow as we head toward midday. Lake effect will commence
later in the day as the cold air really pours in. Some model
guidance like the NAM is showing higher totals than we are
forecasting and may be the odd model out. The ECMWF and GFS remain
consistent with an inch or two possible in most areas and 3-5 inches
across portions of Central Lower Michigan. Have no issue with the
Blizzard warning given the strength of the wind and accumulating
snows. The worst of the blizzard conditions are likely this
afternoon and especially this evening for places like Baldwin, Evart
and Big Rapids.

The snow will taper off overnight into Monday morning and the winds
will finally begin to ease up some.

Two systems will affect longer range in the forecast, one on
Tues/Wed and another on Fri/Sat. The late in the week system is
trending stronger and could bring some additional accumulating snow.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1256 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

Very active period coming up for aviation interests over the next
24 hours. The first set of impacts this morning are LIFR-VLIFR
conditions with low clouds/rain/fog in place over the area, and
some thunder to go with it. This will all linger through much of
the night, except the thunder which should be out of the area by
10z or so. Winds will switch direction with the front coming
through, and start to increase a bit. Cigs and vsbys may improve a
little, but plenty of IFR expected to hold in.

Rain showers will change to snow showers, and winds will increase
markedly by late morning. Wind gusts around and possibly over 50
knots are expected by 17z. Snow showers will be going on, and the
wind will blow the falling snow. Drifting snow does not look
likely until later with temps above freezing for a bit. Blowing
and drifting will become more of a problem for the western sites
with lingering snow and lake effect. Wind gusts will remain up
through most of the remainder of the forecast, with maybe a slight
improvement right at the end of the period.

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

Very strong low pressure will move through the Great Lakes over the
next 24 hours, creating winds in of 50-60 mph out on Lake Michigan.
Sustained winds of this magnitude do not occur very often. And it
has been quite some time since we have seen this type of wind, for
the length of time that we will have it with high water levels.
Water levels were on the low side of normal on Lake Michigan from
roughly 1999 through 2013. So, we have not seen a storm/higher water
level combination like this probably since the November 1998 fall
storm.

Keep in mind that a water level rise will occur on our side of the
lake due to the strong push of west winds. Rises may be on the order
of a couple of feet above the already higher than normal water
levels. Our concerns at the shoreline and in river mouths are
multiple. First, we may see flooding in river mouths where water
will be forced between the pierheads and down the channels into
towns. Large rolling waves will be sweeping down the river channels
as well which will add to the issues. Second, shoreline ice based on
a MODIS satellite image from two days ago is not continuous. So, in
areas where there is no ice or limited ice the waves will be able to
carry their power to the beach and the dunes. The toe of the dune
(the base) may become unstable and allow the dune face to slump or
slide down into the water. Persons with shoreline interests should
be aware of this threat. Finally, what ice is in place will be moved
around by the large waves and we could see ice crashing into the
shoreline in spots where it can become mobile.

As for wave heights, the November 1998 storm had a peak wave at the
Southern Lake Michigan buoy of 20 feet. This storm looks to be no
different as the WaveWatch3 and the GLERL model are both indicating
peak waves occurring between Grand Haven and South Haven between 19
and 20 feet around 700pm. Stay away from the shoreline as water will
likely be pushed into places you have not seen it before. Pier decks
will be completely swamped by waves of this magnitude.

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

A significant warmup as well as rainfall expected this weekend
will start the process of river levels rising again. Anytime we
think about rapid warmups and rainfall this time of year leads to
the logical question about flooding potential. The good news is
that at this point it looks like the rain totals will be low
enough and the warmup will be brief enough to avoid widespread and
significant flooding across our area over the next week. However,
significant rises are very likely on virtually all of our rivers,
and by the first half of next week many of our rivers will again
be near bankfull. We will keep a close eye on forecast trends, but
right now it looks like our rivers should escape without major
issues.

The one fly in the ointment is the renewed threat of ice jams on
some of our rivers. The last big rise on our rivers a few weeks ago
destroyed a lot of the river ice, which will now work to our
advantage (you can't have an ice jam without ice). Limited amounts
of new ice have formed on parts of the rivers, but most of our
rivers remain mostly ice-free at this time. However, there are some
rivers that still have solid ice covering them, including parts of
the Grand River (Portland, Grand Rapids area, and
Eastmanville/Robinson Township). These areas will be the focus for
potential ice jam formation over the next week, and should be
watched closely.

Once the upcoming warm and windy weather passes, temperatures will
again plunge for next week, which will limit additional snowmelt and
start to give the rivers a chance to recover from all the new
water.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Monday for
MIZ046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

Blizzard Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Monday for
MIZ037>040-043>045.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM Monday
morning for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

SYNOPSIS...Duke
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...Duke
HYDROLOGY...AMD/63

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FXUS63 KGRR 230830
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
330 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

- Strong and Damaging winds likely on Sunday

- Burst of lake effect snow Sunday afternoon into Sunday night

- Chance for thunderstorms this evening

- Small chances for some freezing rain this morning

- Large waves and high water levels on Lake Michigan (see marine
section)

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Friday)
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

A strong low pressure system will move through the state of
Michigan over the course of the next 24 to 36 hours. The low will
reach depths rival some of the deepest lows to move through our
area. By Sunday evening the low will be northeast of Sault Ste.
Marie at a depth of around 971 MB's. This is rival any of the
deeper lows of historic fall storms like the 1998 storm, the
Fitzgerald storm of 1975 and the Armistice Day storm of 1940. Of
note is the fact that a 1040 mb high will be in place over the
plains states which will create a very strong pressure gradient
over the Great Lakes. A very strong rise fall surface pressure
couplet will swing across the forecast area, with the ECMWF
showing 6 hr pressure rises to our northeast in excess of 20mb's.
Bottom line, we have strong winds coming on Sunday. They should
sweep in right around daybreak and peak through the course of the
day. The strongest winds will occur between 700am and 700pm, but
strong winds will continue into Sunday night as well.

At this point based on coordination with APX, DTX and IWX have
decided to continue with the going watch. Decisions on the watch
transitioning into warnings or advisories will occur on the day
shift today. We do believe the biggest impacts will come from the
wind however, in terms of downed trees and tree limbs falling
onto power lines. Power outages can be expected.

In terms of winter impacts, it appears snowfall totals are going
to be on the lighter side. Lake effect snow is expected to develop
Sunday afternoon lasting into Sunday night. The deepest moisture
will be across Central Lower Michigan, where our highest snowfall
totals will occur. We will likely see 1-3, maybe 4 inches across
interior portions of Central Lower, tapering to an inch or less
elsewhere across the area. There will be some periods of whiteouts
up towards Big Rapids, Baldwin and Evart Sunday evening. For the
most part though this looks to be a wind producer. We are
expecting winds to increase into the 25-40 mph range with gusts of
50-60 mph. The highest gusts will likely occur towards Lake
Michigan.

We have a chance of thunderstorms this evening into the overnight
hours ahead of the cold front. 900pm to 400am will be the time
frame when we may see a storm or two embedded in a larger rain
shield. We are not expecting severe storms, but with a 50-60 knot
low level jet a few damaging wind gusts are not out of the
question tonight.

We cannot rule out a little bit of freezing rain this morning,
especially across Central Lower Michigan. Model consensus
continues to show a small chance but amounts have trended down
with each run. The ECMWF would indicate that the threat is minimal
with temps above freezing area wide by noon.

Otherwise, the flow turns zonal for the remainder of the forecast
period with some discrepancies between the ECMWF and the GFS. The
GFS has a couple of systems (Tues/Wed and Fri) next week, whereas
the ECWMF is fairly quiet. We will likely keep colder air in place
at least into mid week behind the this weekend's system.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1248 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

Impacts for aviation interests will be initially limited with VFR
conditions ruling. We will see a steady deterioration in
conditions after 16z-18z and through the end of the period. This
worsening trend will be the result of the storm system to our SW
approaching the area and bringing plenty of low level moisture and
shower activity. We expect to start going IFR after 18z and
beyond.

We are also bringing thunder into all the terminals, likely after
00z when the better elevated instability moves overhead. Winds
will also increase, but should not be too bad by the end of the
period with gusts up around 25 to 30 knots. An increase in gusts
will be possible right after this forecast period with the front.

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

With storm force winds out on the lake, waves will reach large
heights on Sunday. Waves of 12 to 18 feet are likely. I would not
be surprised to see a few of the peak waves hit 20 feet towards
Sunday evening. Water levels are higher than normal already and
with a sustained westerly wind we may see some lakeshore flooding.

The flooding potential is two fold. First, we may see some
flooding into port towns, as water is forced through the pier
heads and into town. The high water levels from current levels +
the storm rise, will combine with rollers coming down the
channels which could lead to some flooding. The second concern is
where shore ice is lower or limited. Large waves will be able to
carry some force to the beach in these areas and create erosion at
the toe of the dune. Yesterday's MODIS satellite shot showed some
ice up and down the shore, but it not wide. Ice in the open waters
will be tore up quickly by the wave action. Any headline issuance
will be considered on the dayshift.

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

A significant warmup as well as rainfall expected this weekend will
start the process of river levels rising again. Anytime we think
about rapid warmups and rainfall this time of year leads to the
logical question about flooding potential. The good news is that at
this point it looks like the rain totals will be low enough and the
warmup will be brief enough to avoid widespread and significant
flooding across our area over the next week. However, significant
rises are very likely on virtually all of our rivers, and by the
first half of next week many of our rivers will again be near
bankfull. We will keep a close eye on forecast trends, but right now
it looks like our rivers should escape without major issues.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
for MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

SYNOPSIS...Duke
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...Duke
HYDROLOGY...AMD

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FXUS63 KMKX 191202 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
602 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

.UPDATE...

No change to the forecast for today. There is still patchy
freezing fog out there that may cause some slick spots on roads.

.AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

There is patchy freezing ground fog out there early this morning.
VFR conditions are expected today and through much of tonight.
Look for snow to spread in quickly early Wednesday morning from
the southwest. There will probably be a period of moderate snow
with the main wave that moves through between 4 and 8 am,
especially toward Janesville and Madison and areas west. Snow will
transition to freezing rain or freezing drizzle and eventually
rain in southeast WI, and a wintry mix over south central and east
central WI midday Wednesday. It may remain all snow toward the
Dells. Temperatures will max out in the lower 30s, right around
freezing.

.MARINE...

Yesterday's MODIS satellite imagery shows that the nearshore areas
are largely ice covered. That may break apart as onshore winds
develop late tonight. Easterly wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots are
expected

Expect increasing easterly winds early Wednesday morning
as low pressure approaches from the Plains. Gusts of 25 to 30
knots are expected. Gale force gusts are possible, but should not
be frequent enough for a gale warning at this time. Winds will
shift to the west- southwest Wednesday night. Again, gale force
gusts are possible. Winds will diminish through Thursday. A Small
Craft Advisory was posted for the nearshore areas of southeast
WI. Yesterday's MODIS satellite imagery shows that the nearshore
areas are largely ice covered.

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 436 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019)

SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High.

There are pockets of very cold temps early this morning due to
efficient radiational cooling. There are even pockets of freezing
fog that developed. Freezing fog can cause slippery road
conditions. Thin high clouds are beginning to spread into southern
WI from the south. Expect quiet weather and light winds today with
filtered sunshine. Highs will be in the mid 20s.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with increasing clouds and
warm air advection ahead of low pressure approaching from the
Plains.

Wednesday... Forecast Confidence is Medium to High.

Look for snow to spread in quickly early Wednesday morning from
the southwest, right during the morning commute. There will
probably be a period of moderate snow with the main wave that
moves through between 4 and 8 am, especially toward Janesville and
Madison and areas west. Snow will transition to freezing rain or
freezing drizzle and eventually rain in southeast WI, and a wintry
mix over south central and east central WI midday Wednesday. It
may remain all snow toward the Dells.

Timing for the Winter Weather Advisory headlines was tricky, but
general thinking is that snow will spread into our south earlier
than the northern areas toward central WI. Far southeast WI will
likely rise above freezing by late afternoon which would help
precip transition to all rain, so that area has an earlier end
time of 3 pm. 6 pm is probably a little long to keep the advisory
going in the southern half of WI since the precip will be ending
from south to north, but this can account for if the system slows
down.

Temperatures will max out in the lower 30s, right around
freezing. This will allow salt and other road treatments to work
on diminishing snow/mixed precip during the afternoon.

The best forcing for precip will arrive during the morning hours
and impact the morning commute. This is associated with mainly
850mb frontogenesis, although strong 700mb warm air advection and
frontogenesis will help to saturate the column.

Behind that main snow band, dry air at 600-500mb RH spreads into
southeast WI and potentially south central WI from late Wed
morning through the afternoon. This will cut the moisture out of
the snow growth zone and leave us with a deep layer of sub-
freezing air with no ice crystals, thus freezing rain. If the dry
slot is deep enough, then we would get lighter precip which would
give us freezing drizzle instead. Either way, surface temperatures
will take their time warming above freezing so we could end up
with a glaze of ice or perhaps up to a tenth of an inch in a few
spots, enough to create travel headaches through much of the day.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Forecast confidence high.

The upper wave and occluded front will mostly be through srn WI by
Wed eve so any lingering mixed pcpn will be very light. Brisk wly
winds and cold advection will prevail the remainder of the night.
The wly winds will gradually lessen on Thu as high pressure
approaches. The high will settle over srn WI for Thu nt with
single digit temps inland. The high will then move to the lower
Great Lakes on Fri with an esely flow developing over srn WI.
High temps will be near seasonal normals for Thu-Fri.

LONG TERM...Friday night through Monday...Forecast confidence
medium.

Chances of mixed pcpn are forecast late Fri nt-Sat as warm
advection occurs well ahead of strong cyclogenesis over the srn
Great Plains. The deepening low will track from the srn Great
Plains to se WI by Sun AM. This would bring widespread pcpn for
Sat nt-Sun AM with more rain than snow over the se half of the
area, and more snow than rain north and northwest of Madison. A
period of windy conditions will likely occur as the low deepens
into the 980s mb. High pressure then returns for Mon.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...There is patchy freezing ground fog out
there early this morning. VFR conditions are expected today and
through much of tonight. Look for snow to spread in quickly early
Wednesday morning from the southwest. There will probably be a
period of moderate snow with the main wave that moves through
between 4 and 8 am, especially toward Janesville and Madison and
areas west. Snow will transition to freezing rain or freezing
drizzle and eventually rain in southeast WI, and a wintry mix over
south central and east central WI midday Wednesday. It may remain
all snow toward the Dells. Temperatures will max out in the lower
30s, right around freezing.

MARINE...Expect increasing easterly winds early Wednesday morning
as low pressure approaches from the Plains. Gale force gusts are
possible, but not expected to be frequent enough for a gale
warning at this time. Winds will shift to the west-southwest
Wednesday night. Again, gale force gusts are possible. A Small
Craft Advisory will be needed for the nearshore areas of southeast
WI.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for
WIZ056-062>065-067>070.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Wednesday for
WIZ066-071-072.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for
WIZ046-047-051-052-057>060.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to 9 AM CST Thursday
for LMZ643>646.

Update...Cronce
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Cronce
Wednesday THROUGH Monday...Gehring

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FXUS63 KDLH 170934
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
334 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Relatively quiet weather continues through the day Monday, with some
chances of light lake effect snow/flurries along the North Shore
south to the Twin Ports today and tonight.

An upper-level longwave trough will persist over the Intermountain
West states through the day Monday, along with a sub-tropical jet
rounding the base of the trough, over the southern United States. A
surface low pressure system will remain over the central Mississippi
River valley region today, well south of the Northland. However,
this will result in northeasterly flow over the Northland through
tonight, which will result in some chances of lake effect snowfall,
which should remain light in nature. Some of the models are hinting
at this lake effect snow, such as the NAMNest and WRF NMM models, as
well as the 17.00z GFS model. The latest MODIS satellite imagery
still shows a good bit of ice coverage over Lake Superior, with some
breaks along the North Shore, which should be sufficient enough for
some light snow to develop, along with 850mb-to-lake delta-T values
between 13 to 18 degrees C. The main limiting factor will be a lack
of deep-layer moisture, although some shallow saturation will be
available to promote ice crystal growth. For now, snow accumulation
will be light, with a coating to no more than a half inch
possible. This lake effect snow should continue into the evening
hours tonight, but will shift more southward due to a backing wind
profile in the low-levels, so some light snow/flurries could
linger near the Twin Ports and adjacent areas of the South Shore
this evening. Some flurries will also be possible over our far
southern counties due to forcing from the aforementioned large-
scale trough. Highs today will range from the upper teens to lower
20s.

Another chilly night is expected tonight, with some clearing skies
to the north, which will promote some radiational cooling. Overnight
lows will fall into the single digits to near zero south and lower
teens below zero north. Monday looks to be drier at the moment as
high pressure will slowly build back into the region, which will
push the mid-level wave to the east. Skies will be partly to mostly
sunny on Monday, with highs in the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Below to near seasonable temperatures this week with a chance for
measurable snowfall mid-week, then a prolonged chance for light
snow late week into the weekend.

On the synoptic scale, a fairly active pattern across North
America, but locally generally low sensible weather impacts as the
main storm track shifts to the south compared to earlier this
month. The week begins with a mid/upper level longwave trough over
the southwest with a few weak mid-level shortwave troughs across
the Great Plains. One of these waves located over the northern
Plains will track east towards the Great Lakes, leading to clouds
Monday night into early Tuesday, but a very low chance for any
precip. A broad area of high pressure builds across the Midwest on
Tuesday leading to decreasing clouds, with southerly low level
flow developing. The main longwave trough over the southwest
slowly ejects into the southern Plains and Mississippi River
Valley mid-week, leading to a broad area of large-scale lift
producing light snowfall over much of the Midwest. Guidance
continues to trend slightly east with the area of heaviest
precipitation, though the latest 00z ECMWF is a bit more
aggressive than the rest of the guidance suite. Generally around 1
to 3 inches of snowfall is possible, with the best chance for
snow in northwest Wisconsin. The greatest impacts from this snow
would likely be during the Wednesday morning commute, with snow
quickly ending towards Wednesday evening. Areas in north-central
Minnesota would be on the western edge of the snowfall, with
locations like Brainerd and International Falls possibly only
receiving a coating to an inch of snowfall.

Just as one mid/upper level longwave trough ejects out of the
southwest, another develops as a wave descends from the Pacific
Northwest into the southwest to replace it late-week. Like the
early/mid week pattern, this wave would also likely eject into the
southern Great Plains producing a broad area of precipitation,
though the track for this system would likely be a more southerly
track than the early/mid week storm. There is greater than usual
spread in terms of how far north/south the resultant precip may
develop along with the intensity, but the guidance consensus is
for a repeat of the mid-week snowfall, perhaps greater or less in
intensity - more likely to be the same or less in intensity. A
warming trend in temperatures with highs in the low 30s across
northwest Wisconsin by Saturday, which is near normal for this
time of year.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

VFR conditions prevail through the period for all TAF sites except
DLH. With east-northeasterly flow over Lake Superior, lake induced
lower ceilings with some flurries/light snow will move over the
North Shore and affect DLH tonight into the afternoon hours.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 18 0 15 -2 / 30 10 0 0
INL 18 -9 11 -12 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 21 -1 15 -7 / 10 10 0 0
HYR 22 2 18 -1 / 0 10 0 0
ASX 19 1 16 0 / 0 10 0 10

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...KC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 160926
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
330 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence - High.

Temperatures dropped into the single digits below zero from the
Wisconsin River Valley to Fond du Lac and northward early this
morning due to radiational cooling. There is thin cirrus streaming
into southern WI that is associated with a mid level wave
approaching. Aside from mid and high level clouds, there will be no
impacts for southern WI from this feature today.

Lake effect clouds coincident with high 925mb RH expanded from Green
Bay into the Sheboygan area around midnight and have remained fairly
stationary overnight. Another area of stratus lake clouds spread
into the Chicago area. With winds turning around to the east through
the morning, we can expect the low clouds to expand across the rest
of the lakeshore counties. Flurries are likely with these clouds as
they are right around
-10C.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence - Medium to High.

Short term guidance remains in good consistency and agreement
regarding weakening low level circulation tied to upper level jet
passing to the south of Wisconsin on Sunday. This low level
circulation will move along a baroclinic zone draped across the
region, however the tighter thermal low level boundary will be to
the south in IL/IA. The strongest synoptic lift with this system
across southern WI will be late tonight into Sunday morning as a
period of sloping frontogenetical forcing interacts the better
Dendritic Growth Zone. This synoptic scale forcing weakens during
the afternoon but lingering warm air advection and low level
convergence will continue to generate lift across the area. In
addition, lake enhancement will add to the synoptic lift during the
day as Delta-T increases to around 10-11C as the low level winds
gradually back from the east to the northeast. The synoptic lift
shifts to the east by Sunday evening, however the threat for pure
lake effect will increase as the low level winds remain northeast
for a period of time resulting in a longer fetch. The delta-T
increases to 13-14 degrees so expecting additional light
accumulations near the lakeshore Sunday night. Using Cobb,
thickness and climatology techniques, used Snow Liquid Ratio's of 15
to 19 to 1, which was lower then Superblend. Using average QPF
around 0.18, which was close to Model Certainty mean, ended up with
snowfall mostly in the 2 to 4" range with highest amounts in the
southwest and closer to Lake Michigan. However some 5" possible in
these areas per probabilities. A Winter Weather Advisory may be
needed for the south and east due to expected impacts on Sunday
travel, but wl let day shift make final decision.

Lingering lake effect Sunday night should taper off late in the
night into early Monday.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence - Medium.

The extended period should start out on a quiet and cold note with
amplifying short wave ridging and a large surface high pressure area
moving across the region. The quiet weather will be short-lived
however as an upstream long wave trof over the western CONUS will be
ejecting a stronger piece of short wave energy in the midwest
Tuesday night and Wednesday. This system will have a bit more
"kick" to it then the Sunday system and will likely bring another
round of light snow to the area beginning later Tuesday night and
possibly lingering through Wednesday night. There remains
considerable variation in the Medium Range ensembles the track and
strength of this low pressure area. However using a blend of the
GEM, GFS and ECMWF places southern WI squarely in a period of
synoptic scale lift during this period. Low level temperature
profile shows mostly -sn, however a wintery mix may push into
southeast areas on Wednesday. Once again, lake enhancement may
increase snowfall closer to the lake due to a persistent low level
easterly fetch over the mostly open waters of Lake Michigan. SLR
will likely be in the 13 to 18 to 1 range. Looking like a potential
for another 3 to 6" snowfall across the area. Possible that lake
effect snow showers linger through Wednesday night before the low
level winds turn NNW by Thursday.

The persistent upstream long wave trof keeps the active weather
going towards the weekend as well, with potentially another system
bringing a wintery mix to the area around Saturday.

While the mid-level steering winds remain from the WSW, cold air
will remain firmly entrenched in the low levels. So expect
temperatures to be below normal for most of this period.

.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

Stratus with MVFR ceilings around 2100 feet spread into the
Sheboygan area around midnight and have held steady for the time
being. Expect these low clouds to spread across the rest of the
lakeshore counties through mid morning as winds turn around to the
east. The top of the shallow saturated layer is right around
-10C, sufficient for flurries today. Clouds should continue to
expand inland through the afternoon.

Look for accumulating snow to spread into southern WI from the
southeast late tonight and persist through Sunday evening before
dissipating. Lake enhanced snow showers will likely contribute to
higher snowfall amounts for lakeshore areas on Sunday. Then a lake
effect snow band may brush southeast WI Sunday night into Monday
morning as well.

.MARINE...

We are not expecting gale force winds within the next week.
Increasing east to northeast winds will build high waves in the
nearshore from late tonight through Monday morning. We held off on a
headline at this time. The latest MODIS satellite image from
yesterday shows 50-70% ice cover over the nearshore areas but wide
open over the open waters, with the exception of the far north.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.

TODAY AND TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KDLH 160908
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
308 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

A generally quiet forecast through the day Sunday, with only
increasing cloud cover and small chances of light snow over the far
southern areas and along the North Shore of the forecast area on
Sunday.

For today, increasing cirrus clouds will be the main story as a weak
mid-level impulse moves through the region. At the surface, an area
of high pressure will translate across the Northland, which will
keep drier air in place and inhibit any chances of precipitation.
Overall, skies will be partly sunny, with highs a bit below seasonal
average, in the upper teens and lower 20s.

An upper-level low will build across the Intermountain West states
today, which will keep the sub-tropical jet stream over the southern
United States. Embedded lobes of vorticity in the large scale upper
trough will eventually eject eastward into the Midwest region
tonight. While the synoptic guidance keeps the bulk of the forcing
to the south of the Northland (closer to a surface low pressure,
progged to translate across the southern United States), the
vorticity should be close enough to at least increase our cloud
cover from the south late tonight and through the day Sunday. There
is also the small potential for some light snow, mainly near the
Brainerd area and points southeast towards Hinckley - only a limited
area. It's unclear at this point if this light snow will even
materialize as the models disagree on the amount of available
moisture for precipitation, with the NAM keeping things dry through
Sunday, as well as the hires guidance. Moreover, some small chances
of lake effect snow will be possible due to eastern flow off Lake
Superior. The latest MODIS satellite imagery does show less ice
coverage over Lake Superior compared to a few days ago, so
introduced some small chance pops along the North Shore during the
day Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 238 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

A fairly quiet weather period next week with temperatures slightly
below normal and a few chances for light snow, with the best chance
for snow on Wednesday when northwest Wisconsin and parts of
northeast Minnesota might see 1-3 inches.

On the synoptic scale, a persistent mid/upper level longwave
trough will develop over the southwest, resulting in southwesterly
flow at mid/upper levels through next week and into next weekend.
At low levels a weak cold front moves in from the northwest to
start off the week cooler with some clouds, but little to no
chance for precipitation outside a low chance for light lake
effect snow along the south shore (subject to western Lake
Superior ice coverage). High pressure builds in Tuesday leading to
the coldest lows Monday night into Tuesday morning as skies clear
out, with lows ranging from zero to 15 below zero, coldest in
north-central Minnesota. Tuesday will probably be the best day to
enjoy the great outdoors with mainly sunny skies, despite being
the coldest day with highs in the upper single digits to near 20
above zero. Some locations might even get into the mid/upper 20s
in northwest Wisconsin if skies are mostly sunny for the day as
currently forecast.

Mid-week, a widespread chance for snowfall arrives as a mid-level
longwave trough ejects out of the southwest into the central and
southern Great Plain and towards the Upper Great Lakes. The wave
will be fairly broad with broad-scale lift across a very large
area, without any significant surface low developing in response
to the wave. However, with warm air advection across a broad area
of low/mid level moisture ahead of the wave, there should be a
sufficient response to produce a broad area of light snowfall
across the Midwest. Precipitation chances will be best across
northwest Wisconsin, less so in northeast Minnesota, with areas
north and west of the Iron Range likely to receive less than an
inch of snow. Otherwise, a broad chance for 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall, beginning Wednesday afternoon and likely to be over well
before the Thursday morning commute. This might have some minor
impacts to the Wednesday evening commute in some spots.

Late-week temperatures trend slightly warmer back towards normal
values for this time of year, but guidance diverges a bit in terms
of specifics. There is likely to be another chance for light
precipitation late-Friday into Saturday, but timing and location
differences between guidance and their ensembles leads to low
confidence in any one time frame. However, given the forcing
mechanism will be another broad shortwave trough approaching from
the southwest, any precipitation amounts would be expected to be
light. Highs warm up to the 20s on Saturday with a few spots in
northwest Wisconsin near 30, which is right about normal for late
February.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

High pressure over the region will lead to mainly clear skies with
light winds for most of the period. However, conditions still seem
on track for potential early morning fog development over INL and
possibly HIB. IFR conditions, potentially lower, are possible over
INL.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 19 3 18 2 / 0 0 10 10
INL 17 -7 18 -8 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 19 4 20 3 / 0 10 10 10
HYR 23 4 21 3 / 0 10 10 10
ASX 21 1 18 3 / 0 10 10 10

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...KC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 280319
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
919 PM CST Sun Jan 27 2019

.UPDATE...Dry air in place over southern WI contributing to
eroding first push of lift associated with warm air advection
ahead of strengthening Dakotas low pressure. Hence 1-3 hour delay
in snow begin times.

00Z NAM initially takes a slightly more southward track of the low
across IA into northwest IL tonight into Monday morning, however
it then moves northeast to near Wind Lake by 18Z. This would keep
the enhanced lift from Lake Michigan from Milwaukee north, so
still thinking the heaviest accumulations would be in this area.
Never the less, still like total accumulations anywhere from 6 to
14 inches across southern WI, with the highest amounts in the
east. No changes to headlines at this time.

.MARINE...Tightening pressure gradient associated with approaching
low pressure from the Dakotas will result in gusty southeast winds
developing overnight, with potential gales reaching 35 to 40 knots
in the open waters. A few gales to 35 knots may affect the
nearshore waters late tonight into early Monday but not expected
to be frequent enough to warrant upgrading Small Craft Advisory to
Gale Warning at this time. Much of the nearshore waters ice
covered as well per latest hi resolution MODIS imagery from today.
No change to ongoing marine headlines at this time.

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 622 PM CST Sun Jan 27 2019)

UPDATE...Period of mostly clear skies late this afternoon and
early evening has allowed temperatures to fall off rapidly in the
eastern areas. Mid-high clouds have spread into western CWA and
will continue east the next 1-2 hours, causing temperatures to
level off. However needed to lower temps in eastern areas a few
degrees.

Leading edge of the snow spreading ESE across northeast IA and
southeast MN. This will continue to spread rapidly southeast and
spread across south central and southeast WI between 730 pm and
11 pm. Winter Storm Warning now in effect for western areas. The
heaviest snows is expected later tonight into Monday morning.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Snow will spread across southern Wisconsin
this evening with ceilings and vsbys quickly lowering to low MVFR
and IFR. Low level winds become southeast and increase late this
evening, increasing the chance for lake enhancement to the
incoming snow later tonight into Monday morning. Areas of blowing
snow are expected due to the more powdery nature of the snow and
wind gusts up to 30 mph.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 349 PM CST Sun Jan 27 2019)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Monday...Forecast Confidence is high.

Major winter storm on track to affect the region tonight and
Monday. Winter storm warning remains in effect.

Changes to the forecast include an hour or two later snow arrival
time this evening. Increased snowfall between 6 AM and Noon on
Monday.

Snow will gradually enter from west to east this evening and warm
advection aloft kicks into gear at the nose of a 45kt low level
jet. HRRR/RAP have come into line with GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM with the
surface low strengthening and track. With the majority of the area
north of the low track that goes across northern Illinois, we are
poised for significant snow accumulation.

QPF output remains robust, suggesting 1 to 2 inch per hour snow
rates overnight through the mid morning hours Monday. This will
cause significant travel impacts, with substantial impacts to the
Monday morning commute. All areas can expect at least 6 inches of
snowfall with a widespread 6-10 inches forecast. The axis of
highest snowfall, between 10 and 14 inches is focused on the
northeast portion of the forecast area, including areas in and
around Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, Port Washington, West Bend and
Juneau. It is entirely possible this band of higher snow shifts
just a bit to the south and includes the the I-94 corridor. Bottom
line, widespread heavy snow is expected.

Lake enhancement will likely add 2-4 inches for lake front
counties overnight through mid Monday morning. Right now,
Sheboygan, Ozaukee and Milwaukee are most prone to these higher
amounts. It is not out of reason to see storm total snowfall
around 18 inches where lake enhancement is maximized.

Snow will gradually taper off from west to east during the late
morning and afternoon hours. Winds will then shift to the
north/northwest and become gusty. This will result in considerable
blowing and drifting of the newly fallen snow. This will create
additional impacts to the evening commute.

It should be noted that forecast wind speeds and gusts fall short
of blizzard criteria (35kt for 3 hours or more). That said,
considerable blowing and drifting is expected, especially Monday
afternoon into Monday night.

LONG TERM...

Monday Night Through Thursday Night... Forecast Confidence is
High.

Arctic air will slide into the Upper Midwest late Monday night in
the wake of the winter storm. This is due to an upper low
barreling into the region. Southern WI will remain in a tight
pressure gradient as the surface low pressure system stalls over
the eastern Great Lakes and high pressure builds into the Northern
Plains and then eventually into the Midwest.

Low temperatures and wind chill values Monday night will be modest
as winds remain fairly light and clouds linger. Westerly winds
will begin to increase Tuesday morning with the leading edge of
the arctic front. We should at least see some flurries with this,
if not widespread light snow with a dusting of accumulation. The
powdery snow on the ground will have a good chance of blowing
around, so expect drifting snow across north-south oriented roads.

The heart of the cold air will arrive in southern WI late Tuesday
night. There is a discrepancy between the GFS and ECMWF about how
cold the 850mb temps will be (ECMWF is 10 degrees colder), but
they agree on the 925mb temps being in the 32 to 35 degree below
zero range. Low temps should be around -20 near the lakeshore and
-26 well inland Wednesday morning. With brisk westerly winds all
night and into the morning, wind chill values will be in the -40
to -50 degree range. These values are on par with records set in
1982 and 1985.

Winds will begin to diminish Wednesday evening. With clearing
skies, we have a pretty good chance at dropping into the 20s below
zero once again, with wind chill values around -40.

We held off with wind chill headlines to get through this winter
storm. We will probably need a wind chill advisory for Monday
night and then a wind chill watch that would roll into a warning
for Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Expect these to be issued
by tomorrow afternoon.

Friday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is Medium.

As high pressure shifts into the eastern US, expect temperatures
to rebound into the lower/mid 30s across southern Wisconsin by
this weekend. With this round of warm air advection, we can expect
some chances for mixed precipitation during this time.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

Major winter storm still on track to affect the region tonight and
Monday.

Only change to the forecast was to delay snow onset by an hour or
two. Confidence is high in impactful snow, with one to two inch
per hour rates overnight, and lasting into the mid morning hours
of Monday at MKE/UES/ENW. Winds will be light/variable late this
afternoon and early this evening before establishing a southerly
direction and becoming gusty at times overnight. IFR ceilings will
spread over the region with the heavy snow, with LIFR visibility
possible from time to time. IFR ceilings will persist into much of
Monday. Winds will gradually shift to the northwest on Monday,
becoming increasingly gusty during the afternoon and evening. Snow
will taper off from west to east from the late morning through the
afternoon hours. Flurries may linger into Monday evening.

MARINE...

Nearshore Waters...

Expect gusts of 25 to 30 knots later tonight through Monday. Winds
will be southeast tonight and north on Monday. A small craft
advisory remains in effect tonight into Thursday. Expect high waves
and freezing spray toward the open waters and ice free areas of the
near shore into Monday. West winds will remain gusty through much of
the week with gusts to 30 kts at times.

Open Waters...

A Gale Warning remain in effect for the open waters of Lake Michigan
from 06Z tonight until 06Z Tuesday. There will be a couple of
periods of gales to 35 knots during this time. The south half will
see this later tonight with southeast to east gales, and again
Monday afternoon and evening with north to northwest gales. The
north half will see east to northeast gales later tonight into
Monday. High waves are expected.

There will be somewhat of a lull in winds Tuesday morning. Then
gusty west to northwest winds are expected later Tuesday into
Thursday morning. Gales are possible at times, especially for the
central and southern part of the lake.

Gusty winds and very cold temperatures will combine to bring heavy
freezing spray through this week. A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for
the north half remains in effect into Thursday morning. Also added
a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for the south half.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Monday for WIZ046-047-051-
052-056>060-062>072.

LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 3 AM CST Friday for LMZ080-
261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-
872-874-876-878.

Gale Warning from midnight tonight to midnight CST Monday night
for LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-
779-868-870-872-874-876-878.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for LMZ643>646.

Update...MBK
Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Monday Night through Sunday...Cronce

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KFSD 160857
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
257 AM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

The uneventful and mild weather will continue across the region
today. Weak shortwave is passing overhead early this morning but not
producing anything more than some upper level clouds. Surface winds
have and will continue to be more westerly/northwesterly thru the
daytime hours although less breezy in nature than Saturday.

Latest NOHRSC snow depth analysis along with yesterday's MODIS
imagery show a shrinking snow pack across the region, although still
remaining across far southern South Dakota into NW Iowa and SW
Minnesota. Temperatures aloft at 925 mb have cooled a shade compared
to yesterday but still expect fairly efficient warming for areas
void of any snow cover. In general, expect mid to perhaps upper 40s
for areas without snowcover and upper 30s to lower 40s for areas
with.

Overnight, surface high pressure along with added snow melt boundary
layer moisture could allow for some patchy fog development with area
river valleys the most likely area for this to occur. Lows in the
mid teens to mid 20s look to be commonplace.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 226 AM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

Still not a whole lot to discuss in the extended portions of the
forecast. Upper level ridge axis will move overhead for Monday
before being flattened by a weak shortwave Tuesday. By mid week,
upper level trough and jet streak swing through the area allowing
for a somewhat healthier disturbance to pass through Wednesday.
Moisture profiles continue to look rather meager and thus have kept
POPs fairly minimal at this point. If any precip does occur, it
would be very light with operational and ensemble consensus only
spotty amounts of a hundredth of an inch or two. Also continued the
trend of nudging winds up Wednesday night and Thursday. This same
system phases and deepens more efficiently well to our east into a
closed low over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, upper level ridging
builds back in to our west late week.

Overall summary for the upcoming work week would be continued mostly
dry and mild conditions. As snow pack continues to shrink, warming
will become more equally distributed. Generally expect afternoon
high temperatures to run from the mid 30s to mid/upper 40s.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1046 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through this forecast period.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kalin
LONG TERM...Kalin
AVIATION...JH

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KABR 092045
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
345 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

A strong upper level low pressure trough and its associated surface
low pressure area to our south late this afternoon will be making
their way northeast through the night and Wednesday. Intense deep
layer lift with this system will result in rain overspreading the
entire cwa through the evening. The issue will be with the
temperature profiles along with the location of the dry slot surging
north into the eastern part of the region tonight. As a result, the
models vary on the change over to snowfall tonight into Wednesday.
The GFS was the warmest with the NAM the coolest with the thermal
profile through Wednesday. The EC and Canadian were in between these
two models. Believe the cooler models and the change over to snow
should occur by midnight west of the James Valley and to the east of
the James Valley after midnight into Wednesday morning.

The dry slot will lift into our far east and will affect snowfall
amounts. Otherwise, there are good indications of a good deformation
zone setting up northwest of the upper low along with some mid level
frontogenesis combined with some negative epv. Therefore, there
could be some banded snowfall with heavier amounts. The trowal
feature will be also be wrapping around the upper low pressure area.
Snowfall should be heavy enough during the nighttime to be able to
accumulate decently on the grassy surfaces. Roads will also see
slushy accumulations. At this time, 2 to 5 inches look good with
lesser amounts in the far east and southeast in the
Wheaton/Watertown areas. The winds will also be strong in the 20 to
35 mph range with blowing snow not expected to be an issue. Lowered
highs on Wednesday with the expected caa and snowfall occurring.
Expanded Winter Weather Advisory east from the James Valley to the
Sisseton Hills earlier today.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

Gusty winds and snow will continue into Wednesday evening across
the northeastern half of the forecast area. While the main 500mb low
exits our northeastern counties Wednesday night, the large trough
remains in place across the Northern Plains through Friday morning.

The sun looks to return Thursday, at least glimpses of it as high
pressure moves in at the surface. Looking back at the MODIS imagery,
this may be the first time of significant sunshine since September
28th. It will still be cool through, with temperatures topping out
in the 30s and 40s.

Even with the warmup later Friday and Saturday (40s and 50s),
temperatures will remain well below normal. While a brief 500mb
ridge slides overhead Friday, it will quickly be replaced by zonal
flow on Saturday as the next 500mb low (and surface low) shifts
across south central Canada. Gusty winds look to return for Friday
night (not quick mixing to the 35kt wind around 900mb) and Saturday
where 15-20kt winds should be common over the western half of the
forecast area. Light snow may clip the ND/SD border Sunday morning.

Reinforcing cold air will move in for Sunday, with highs in the mid
30s to near 40 degrees.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

Complex weather scenario shaping up in this forecast period as an
early season winter storm moves into the region. Anticipate cigs
will remain IFR through the period at all TAF sites. A more steady
type rain begins to move in late this afternoon and early evening.
Colder air drawn in overnight will change the rain to snow at KMBG
and provide for a mixture at KPIR and KABR. A more brief period of
all snow could be possible at KPIR and KABR early Wednesday morning.
Eventually the mix works into KATY Wednesday morning. Visibilities
will mostly be IFR but in heavier precip, LIFR vsbys will be
possible...especially at KMBG and KABR.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight to
1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Wednesday for SDZ003>005-009-010-
015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT
Wednesday for SDZ006>008-011-018-021.

MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Vipond

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 162045 AAA
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Marquette MI
445 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 421 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2018

Updated for note on wildfire smoke that will move across the area
on Fri.

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show zonal flow across much of
Canada. In the weaker flow to the s, a well-defined shortwave is
over nw IA/ne NE/se SD/sw MN. With daytime heating, sct shra/tsra
associated with the wave have been increasing across IA/southern MN
into sw WI. It appears a subtle wave ahead of the main feature has
also been aiding some shra/tsra development farther ne in WI. Closer
to home, quite a bit of cloud cover has helped slow build up of
instability. That said, latest SPC mesoanalysis shows mlcapes have
increased to 1000+j/kg from northern WI toward Marquette.

Aforementioned well-defined shortwave is fcst to shift ese and
weaken tonight/Fri. While it won't have any direct impact on the
weather here, avbl instability and subtle wave in WI should support
development of a few shra/possibly a tstm across the border into
portions of central Upper MI over the next several hrs. Vis
satellite imagery indicates CU are becoming more well-developed in
the area bounded roughly by Ironwood/Marquette/Iron Mtn, which
supports the idea that some shra may develop late aftn/early
evening. Very weak mean wind under 10kt will lead to little movement
of any shra that develop. Shra should end by midnight, though some
models hint that pcpn could linger overnight. Light/calm wind,
decrease in clouds overnight, and temps falling into 50s will likely
lead to some radiation fog development over the interior w half.

Fri looks like a quiet day. However, under a slightly more wnw mid-
level flow, models do show a weak shortwave approaching in the aftn.
There is some TCU developing ahead of the feature in southern
Manitoba/adjacent northern Ontario, so not out of the question that
there could be isold aftn shra. On the other hand, prevailing
gradient northerly flow will essentially eliminate lake breeze
convergence as a low-level forcing mechanism unless lake breeze off
Lake MI can develop. So for now, left any mention of pcpn out of
fcst. Expect highs ranging from around 70F along Lake Superior to
well into the 80s inland.

On another note, satellite imagery, especially MODIS/AQUA imagery,
shows a very thick layer of wildfire smoke extending from ND ne
into northern Ontario. Unfortunately, this band of smoke will
likely move across the area on Fri. The smoke will be much
thicker than anything experienced this summer.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2018

Rather quiet start to the extended forecast, with a weak mid-lvl
trough axis departing the Great Lakes region late Sat. Closer to the
surface an elongated surface ridge will continue to provide dry
condtiions to the area through Sat, but heading into the second half
of the weekend with the surface ridge departing to the east. Some of
the guidance is starting to slow the departing surface ridge until
later Sun, which could further delay clouds returning and precip
chances until Mon.

A frontal boundary continues to be progged by guidance for
approaching from the west/northwest early Mon, with a shortwave
developing across the Central Plains early in the week. This
shortwave is being progged to lift northeast towards Lower Michigan
Tue/Wed with a wide precip shield accompanying this low pressure
system. This should increase chances for showers/thunderstorms
Tue/Wed of next week.

Temperatures will steadily warm and become more humid over the
second half of the weekend, with highs in the upper 70s to middle
80s. Mild overnight temps are also expected as cloud cover is not
going to dissipate, keeping lows in the 60s for the bulk of the
extended. With the system arriving Tue/Wed, this should provide
cooler temps with rainfall with highs back into the upper 60s to
lower 70s for many areas then warming yet again later in the week.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 155 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2018

VFR conditions are likely to prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this
fcst period. Depending on how much clearing occurs tonight, could
see fog develop. Winds will be light thru this fcst period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 421 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2018

Winds across Lake Superior will be under 15kt thru Sun. However,
high pres building over northern Ontario on Fri may lead to ne wind
gusts of 15-20kt over western Lake Superior. A vigorous low pres
system for Aug is expected to track ne into the Great Lakes region
late Mon/Tue. This system will bring northerly winds of at least 15-
25kt with gusts to 30kt.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...Beachler
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...Rolfson

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KSTO 052203
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
303 PM PDT Thu Jul 5 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warming trend continues through the weekend into next week. Smoke
near wildfires and hazy conditions at times elsewhere.

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly clear skies prevail across interior northern California
today under dry southwest flow aloft. A slow moving low pressure
system off the Pacific Northwest coast continues to bring a weak
Delta Breeze ("Delta Trickle") today...not nearly as strong as
the last couple of days. MODIS and IR Satellite imagery suggests
that the County Fire hasn't burned as intensely today as the last
few days. As such, the density and coverage of smoke has
diminished a bit.

High pressure centered over the central US will begin to
retrograde westward today, bringing warmer temperatures to the
region. Look for highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the
Valley, with 80s for the foothills and 60s to 70s over the
mountains. These forecast highs are around to slightly cooler than
normal for this time of year.

High temperatures will be similar Friday compared to today, then
warm up a few degrees over the weekend as high pressure continues
to strengthen. We'll continue to see a Delta Breeze influence
through the weekend, which will keep temperatures moderated. Look
for highs in the 90s to 100 degrees across the Valley over the
weekend.

Dang

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

Warm and dry conditions anticipated across interior NorCal as
ridge of high pressure remains in control. High temperatures are
expected to be above normal early next week, but not excessively
hot with upper 90s to 100s across the Valley and mid 70s to 90s
over the foothills/mountains. Temperatures will gradually cool
down a few degrees closer to average by the end of the forecast
period. Some moisture may advect northward late next week leading
to thunderstorm activity over higher terrain.

IDM / Dang

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions next 24 hours. Local MVFR conditions possible due
to wildfire smoke mainly along the Coastal Range and the northern
Sacramento Valley. Local afternoon gusts to 20kts in the northern
Sacramento Valley through this evening.

Dang

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KSTO 051528
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
828 AM PDT Thu Jul 5 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warming trend begins today and continues into next week. Smoke
near wildfires and hazy conditions at times elsewhere.

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies prevail across interior northern California this
morning under dry southwest flow aloft. A slow moving low pressure
system off the Pacific Northwest coast continues to bring a modest
Delta Breeze today, albeit not as strong as the last couple of
days. The marine layer moved inland as far as Grizzly Bay in the
Delta this morning. MODIS and IR Satellite imagery suggests that
the County Fire didn't burn as intensely last night as the last
few. As such, the density and coverage of smoke has diminished a
bit.

Dang

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

Warm and dry conditions anticipated across interior NorCal as
ridge of high pressure remains in control. High temperatures are
expected to be above normal early next week, but not excessively
hot with upper 90s to 100s across the Valley and mid 70s to 90s
over the foothills/mountains. Therefore, long outdoor exposures
could increase chances for heat-related illness among sensitive
groups on Monday. Temperatures will gradually cool down a few
degrees closer to average by the end of the forecast period. Some
moisture may advect northward late next week leading to
thunderstorm activity over higher terrain.

.AVIATION...

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCAR 230141
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
941 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to dominate the region with clear
skies and a warming trend into Tuesday. The chance for rain
increases by Wednesday as a surface low tracks into the state
from the south.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
935 PM Update: Fcst hrly temps and dwpts were updated into the
late ngt hrs based on trends seen from mid eve obs with no
additional chgs to fcst ovrngt lows this update. Fcst min aftn
RHs on Mon were lowered based on obsvd min RHs across the Rgn
this past aftn and the xpctn that similar values will be obsvd
across the Rgn tomorrow aftn given WNW flow alf and WSW sfc
winds, which should allow some mixing of dry air alf from at
least 950 mb or so. This chg was made to facilitate a better
fire wx fcst outlook.

Orgnl Disc: Not much to talk about in the near term with high
1032mb surface high pressure building in across southern New
England tomorrow. Warming trend will begin under sunny skies and
light westerly winds. The day will start off the chilly side
though with a dry airmass in place and strong radiational
cooling. Temperatures will quickly rebound as the strong late
April sun warms most areas into the 50s. Enjoy the day.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tuesday will be a 'banner day' across the CWA, with partly to
mostly sunny skies and highs surging into the 60s almost
everywhere except the coast and higher elevations. Highs were
bumped up for central and northern areas, based on 850mb temps
of +1C to +3C and expectations of decent mixing. Temps for
Bangor and the the coast looked good and weren't changed
significantly. An increasing S'ly component to the winds Tue
afternoon will likely cap Bangor's temps in the mid 60s -
otherwise upper 60s would be possible. Some scattered clouds
will move into central and northern areas by later Tue afternoon
as the next system approaches.

As the upper low associated with this next system dives SE
across the eastern Great Lakes during the day Wed, overcast
skies will move during the morning. Rain looks likely to reach
southern and western edges of the CWA by midday, then spread
north and east during the afternoon hours. Rain totals through
Wed afternoon will likely be on the light side along the NB
border and in the St. John Valley. But by 00z Thu, over a
quarter inch is possible from Moosehead Lake down through
coastal Downeast, with heavier rain possible into the long-term.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An additional half inch or so of rain appears quite possible
Between later Wed evening and Thu afternoon. The GFS currently
has, by far, the deepest upper low and strongest surface low,
and consequently shows some more vigorous precip around the
surface low as it occludes over northern Maine. The most likely
chance for heavier rain totals will be central and eastern
areas, especially for Bangor and Downeast. How much rain falls
for northwestern zones will depend partly on how strong the
system is and how much moisture can wrap around the surface low
Thu and Thu night.

Some shallow shortwave upper ridging and a weak surface ridge
will likely bring a break in precip for later Thu night into
Fri, though clouds may not fully clear from the CWA. Another
broad upper trough should bring some precip to the state over
the weekend, but significant disagreement remains on the details
of the timing of the upper trough and when any surface system
will bring rain to the CWA. Thus, POPs were largely kept to
chance, except for some low-end likely POPs for the Central
Highlands and North Woods.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions with high pressure firmly in control.
No impacts to aviation operations expected through Monday.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions expected through Tue night, though a
mid-level deck may move in Tue night. Clouds will lower during
the day Wed, with MVFR to IFR CIGs expected Wed afternoon into
Thu eve, with locally MVFR vsby in areas of heavier rain.
Conditions clear back to MVFR and then VFR on Fri.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: High pressure will crest over the Gulf of Maine on
Monday bringing light winds and small waves. No issues expected
on the coastal waters.

SHORT TERM: Moderate SW'ly winds Mon night and Tue AM will turn
more S-SSW'ly and freshen a bit Tue afternoon and evening, but
gusts should remain below 25kts. Winds will diminish a bit and
turn S-SE'ly later Tue night into Wed. Seas will build up to
3-5 ft Tue eve and night, then drop again Wed AM.

.HYDROLOGY...
Ice out continues on the rivers of Northern Maine today with a
few minor ice jams on the Saint John, but no impacts due to
flooding at this time. Overall the Aroostook is almost flushed
of ice in most areas with limited threat of ice jams. MODIS
satellite shot this morning showed large areas of open river
even on the upper reaches of the Saint John and Allagash.
Overall the ice jam threat remains limited. Flood concerns will
quickly transition to open water flooding as spring is finally
coming with snowmelt rates expected to rapidly increase this
week with warm temperatures, rising dewpoints and rain by
Wednesday. Could have some localized flood issues of small
rivers and streams by Wednesday as the snow really starts to
melt rapidly. Mainstem rivers will continue to rise through the
week across the north and could start to approach action stage
by the weekend. We will see how things unfold this week, but
flood watches could still be possible.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Kredensor
Long Term...Kredensor
Aviation...VJN/Kredensor
Marine...VJN/Kredensor
Hydrology...VJN

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCAR 222004
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
404 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much to talk about in the near term with high 1032mb
surface high pressure building in across southern New England
tomorrow. Warming trend will begin under sunny skies and light
westerly winds. The day will start off the chilly side though
with a dry airmass in place and strong radiational cooling.
Temperatures will quickly rebound as the strong late April sun
warms most areas into the 50s. Enjoy the day.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An additional half inch or so of rain appears quite possible
Between later Wed evening and Thu afternoon. The GFS currently
has, by far, the deepest upper low and strongest surface low,
and consequently shows some more vigorous precip around the
surface low as it occludes over northern Maine. The most likely
chance for heavier rain totals will be central and eastern
areas, especially for Bangor and Downeast. How much rain falls
for northwestern zones will depend partly on how strong the
system is and how much moisture can wrap around the surface low
Thu and Thu night.

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions with high pressure firmly in control.
No impacts to aviation operations expected through Monday.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: High pressure will crest over the Gulf of Maine on
Monday bringing light winds and small waves. No issues expected
on the coastal waters.

.HYDROLOGY...
Ice out continues on the rivers of Northern Maine today with a
few minor ice jams on the Saint John, but no impacts due to
flooding at this time. Overall the Aroostook is almost flushed
of ice in most areas with limited threat of ice jams, with
Masardis still needing to flush out completely. MODIS satellite
shot this morning showed large areas of open river even on the
upper reaches of the Saint John and Allagash. Overall the ice
jam threat remains limited. Flood concerns will quickly
transition to open water flooding as spring is finally coming
with snowmelt rates expected to rapidly increase this week with
warm temperatures, rising dewpoints and rain by Wednesday. Could
have some localized flood issues of small rivers and streams by
Wednesday as the snow really starts to melt rapidly. Mainstem
rivers will continue to rise through the week across the north
and could start to approach action stage by the weekend. We will
see how things unfold this week, but flood watches could still
be possible.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

Near Term...Dumont
Short Term...Kredensor
Long Term...Kredensor
Aviation...Dumont/Kredensor
Marine...Dumont/Kredensor
Hydrology...Dumont

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KMTR 232158
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
158 PM PST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly sunny skies will prevail around the Bay Area
today. Another very cool night is forecast for Friday night. Dry
weather and slightly warmer temperatures are expected over the
weekend. Cooler, unsettled weather is expected to return by early
next week with another system bringing rain to the area later next
week.

.DISCUSSION...as of 01:58 PM PST Friday...Abundant sunshine
blankets the Bay Area this afternoon and most of the state for
that matter. Despite the afternoon sunshine temperatures are still
running several degrees below normal. Max temps will likely top
in the lower to mid 50s for most locations. The higher peaks in
the region a much colder: Diablo low 30s, Mt Hamilton and Chews
Ridge mid-upper 20s. Afternoon MODIS imagery still shows some
lingering snow over the higher peaks in Monterey/San Benito
Counties.

For tonight, clear skies will continue leading to another cold
night, especially away from the coast and major urban centers.
Lows tonight will be in the 20s to lower 30s across the interior
and inland valleys. Closer to the coast and major urban centers
will be mid 30s to lower 40s. Needless to say some frost will be
possible.

Dry weekend ahead as the Bay Area remains in a cold dry northwest
flow. There is a slight uptick in 500 mb heights and 850 mb temps,
especially on Sunday, leading to a slight warming trend. That
being said, temperatures will still be below normal for this time
of year, but interior locations may crack 60 degs by Sunday.
Overnight lows will still be cold and frost will be possible
again Saturday night.

Want to at least mention that embedded in the long wave trough a
weak short-wave trough slides through NE California on Saturday
afternoon/evening. Moisture seems limited to NE of the Bay Area.
Therefore, will not include any precip at this time.

Latest model guidance continues to bring another re-enforcing
upper trough late Sunday into Monday. Better dynamics and better
moisture will allow for an increased chance of precip. Current
forecast will bring showers into the North Bay early Monday and
then spread southward through the day and even into early Tuesday.
Rainfall amounts will generally be a few hundredths to a few
tenths over the higher peaks. Snow levels will initially be 2,500
feet and above and then gradually drop through the day. Similar to
the last few system minor snow accumulations will be possible
with the Santa Lucias receiving the most.

Brief break Tuesday into Wednesday with a short-wave ridge. If the
long are right, and they have been showing this solution for
several runs now, late next week could be interesting.
Deterministic and ensembles means bring one of the more "robust"
storm system into CA as of late. Lots of details will need to be
sorted out between now and then, but timing looks to be right at
the end of the month. Stay Tuned...

.AVIATION...as of 9:40 AM PST Friday...for 18Z TAFs. VFR
conditions through the period with mainly clear skies. Winds west
to northwest at 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions are expected to prevail with
mainly clear skies. West to northwest winds 10 to 20 kt before
decreasing in the evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the period with mainly clear
skies. Possibly FEW to SCT low clouds tonight into tomorrow
morning. Onshore winds this afternoon.

.MARINE...as of 08:15 AM PST Friday...Gale-force northerly winds
over the outer waters will subside later this morning. High
pressure over the eastern Pacific will continue to produce
moderate to strong winds over the coastal waters into the weekend.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 10 PM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 9 PM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: AS
MARINE: AS

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----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 140930
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
330 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...
.Today And Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Warm air advection is expected today across the area, which will
bring milder temperatures into the area. Given the snowpack over
the area, highs will be tempered somewhat, so went near short term
model blended values in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

There is the possibility of an area of thin low stratus clouds to
move into southern and eastern portions of the area this evening,
lingering later tonight. There also is fog potential as well, with
the warmer air moving over the snowpack. There is uncertainty here
with these occurring. There could be breaks in the thin low
stratus clouds, and gusty boundary layer winds and limited low
layer moisture may limit the extent of the fog.

For now, brought in the thin low stratus to the southern and
eastern portions of the area tonight. There should be some fog
development mainly later tonight, especially in the far south and
southwest, closest to where it should advect from. Lows tonight
should not drop a whole lot, especially if any thin low stratus
clouds lingers.

.LONG TERM...
Thursday - confidence medium

Soundings show a saturated shallow layer at the surface into
Thursday morning. There is a very dry air aloft and winds are
elevated off the deck. So will have mention of patchy fog and low
stratus. However, surface winds wind down during at this time,
especially in the southwest so will have to watch if advection
fog creates for more of a problem. Later Thursday winds become
northwest bringing in some drier air mitigating fog potential
later in the day. The upper jet strengthens over the region on
Thursday within southwest flow aloft. Low pressure passes by to
the south of the state and there is a small chance of light rain
clipping the southeast. There is a small chance for some light snow
showers Thursday night as a shortwave moves through. Little, if
any accumulation.

Friday through Wednesday- confidence high

Northwest winds ramps up on Friday as high pressure sinks into
the plains. An upper trough drops through bringing colder temps
Friday and Saturday. The highs slides across the region Friday
night and with clear skies lows will be in the single digits. A
surface and upper trough moves through on Saturday with a warm air
advection regime and a chance for light snow.

The GFS and ECMWF are showing an active pattern for early next
week. Temperatures bounce around the freezing mark depending on
the time of day so there are chances for rain and snow.

.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

Low level wind shear will continue into about the middle morning
hours across the area, with southwest winds at 2000 feet above
ground level around 40 knots. These winds will weaken as the
morning goes on.

Expect south southwest winds gusting up to 20 knots near Lake
Michigan today, with lower gusts inland. Clear skies this morning
should gradually give way to some thin low stratus clouds moving
into southern and eastern portions of the area early this evening
and into tonight. Some fog is expected as well, mainly later
tonight.

There is some uncertainty with how widespread any low ceilings
will be, as well as how low visibility values will get. There may
be some breaks in the thin low stratus as well. Could see
ceilings around 1000 feet with visibility values down to 1 to 2
miles, mainly in the southern and eastern portions of the area.

.MARINE...

Will cancel the Small Craft Advisory early, as winds are well
below criteria across the area. South southwest winds are expected
to gust to near 22 knots at times today into tonight, with higher
winds toward 1000 feet above the surface and still below the
inversion. However, think that this is a borderline situation for
a Small Craft Advisory. MODIS imagery from Tuesday shows that most
of the nearshore waters are covered in ice. Thus, any wave action
will be limited, given the offshore flow.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
LMZ643-644.

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Wood
Thursday through Tuesday...Marquardt

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KBUF 151934
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
234 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will cross the region tonight and tomorrow,
spreading light snow across the Eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures
will remain just below normal mid-week, with some limited lake
effect snow to the southeast and east of the Great Lakes.
Temperatures will begin to moderate to start next weekend, warming
above normal by the end of next weekend.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
This afternoon an area of low pressure is nearing the Central Great
Lakes, while arctic high pressure departs over southern Quebec. A
southerly wind and warm air advection aloft has allowed for surface
temperatures to moderate from the weekend cold with many places now
into the lower 20s.

For this late afternoon and evening light snow will spread across
WNY. Isentropic upglide will be weak, and convergence will diminish
around a weakening surface low...though with a nearing upper level
shortwave there will be ample lift for light snow to develop. As
such, and with an arctic source region to this system's moisture,
snowfall rates will be minimal...generally on the order of just a
few tenths of an inch per hour.

Light snow is expected to spread east of Lake Ontario after
midnight. The southerly winds may bring some downsloping effects,
limiting overall snow across the Lake Plain and Genesee Valley,
while some of the hills of SW NYS and the southern Tug Hill may have
orographic upslope enhancement.

Overall snow tonight and tomorrow will range from 1 to 4 inches.
Greatest totals will be SW NYS, and the southern Tug Hill...while
areas closer to the southern Lake Ontario shoreline and the Genesee
Valley will struggle to accumulate more than an inch. Within the
cold airmass snow is expected to be dry...and flake size may remain
small.

Tomorrow morning drying in the mid levels will end snow from west to
east. As the weakening surface low hangs up over Central New York,
light synoptic snow may linger well into the afternoon hours east of
Lake Ontario. Aloft temperatures at 850 hpa will lower to around -12
to -14C. Some limited lake effect snow may develop on a southwest to
westerly flow late tomorrow...though weak instability and still a
fair amount of wind shear should not result in any significant
bands.

Temperatures will not lower much tonight, and may increase a tick or
two as clouds thicken tonight. Lows will range through the teens to
lower 20s. Coldest spots will be interior locations east of Lake
Ontario where cirrus may remain thin enough this evening to allow
for overnight lows in the upper single digits. Highs on Tuesday will
be in the mid to upper 20s.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday evening the last of the synoptic snow will be exiting the
eastern portion of the area as a weak baroclinic leaf develops over
eastern PA and eastern NY, marking a weak wave along the frontal
boundary. Otherwise our attention turns back to the mesoscale, as a
relatively muted lake response begins. Lake induced equilibrium
levels will start Tuesday evening only around 5K feet, but then
improve to around 7K feet late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Off Lake Erie...

Obviously ice cover will be a major limiting factor with the
majority of the lake ice covered. Recent satellite images do show a
substantial area of open water between Dunkirk and Long Point, and
the ice west of that is not fast ice, with numerous leads and thin
spots apparent in MODIS imagery from yesterday. With this in mind,
there is still enough open water to provide some limited lake
response, and frictional convergence is always present with or
without ice.

Expect the most concentrated area of snow showers to be found from
Southern Erie and western Wyoming counties into the western Southern
Tier Tuesday night and Wednesday, with peak organization coming late
Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. There may also be a few
snow showers reaching the Buffalo Metro area at times, as a weak
band will often form from just east of Long Point and hugs the
northern shore into Buffalo when ice is present on the lake, which
alters where convergence sets up. Accumulations will be limited to 1-
2 inches Tuesday night, and another inch or so Wednesday. A few
flurries or light snow showers may linger into Wednesday night near
Buffalo, with little or no additional accumulation.

Off Lake Ontario...

Weak flow will initially keep much of the lake effect snow over the
lake Tuesday evening, although the eastern end may move onshore in
Oswego County. Later Tuesday night WSW flow becomes better
established across the lake, with lake effect snow showers
increasing across southern Jefferson County and the Tug Hill. This
band will settle south across Oswego County early Wednesday morning
as boundary layer flow veers briefly to west, and then heads back
north across the Tug Hill to Jefferson County again on Wednesday as
flow backs to the southwest.

The movement of the band and shallow inversion heights will keep
accumulations in check, with 1 to 3 inches Tuesday night and another
2 to 3 inches Wednesday in persistent bands. This should keep
amounts a little under advisory criteria. What remains of the lake
effect will diminish to scattered snow showers Wednesday night and
Thursday, although may not end completely with marginal lake induced
instability remaining. Any additional accumulations should be
minimal.

Outside of lake effect areas, Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly
dry for the rest of the region with variable amounts of clouds.
Expect highs Wednesday to be in the low to mid 20s in most areas,
with upper teens across the higher terrain. By Thursday highs will
recover into the mid to upper 20s.

Thursday night and Friday morning a fast moving and rather sharp mid
level trough will pass over or just north of Lake Ontario. This
system will bring an increase in clouds to much of the region, and
also provide a little better environment for lake effect snow again
east of Lake Ontario. This may produce some additional minor
accumulations centered on the Tug Hill region. This system will move
out quickly on Friday with any snow ending east of Lake Ontario.
Temperatures will continue their slow rise, with highs in the mid
30s by Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Zonal flow is expected through much of the weekend and southerly
flow will allow temperatures to climb into the 40s and potentially
50s by Sunday. A deep trough is expected across the Rockies Sunday
while ridging occurs across the east. A Colorado low is expected to
form Sunday-Monday and track northeastward into the Great Lakes
early next week. This will bring the chance of rain and snow showers.

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An area of low pressure nearing the Central Great Lakes region this
afternoon will spread a period of light snow across the TAF
sites...mainly between 23Z tonight and 12Z tomorrow. Snow may linger
through about 15Z east of Lake Ontario...including the KART
airfield.

Visibilities will diminish to IFR within the snow, with ceilings
lowering to MVFR. Winds will remain generally light within the snow,
with southeast flow this afternoon veering to southwesterly by TAF
closure behind the storm system.

Outlook...
Monday night...Light snow with areas of IFR.
Tuesday through Friday...A chance of snow showers with spotty MVFR
to IFR, especially east of the lakes with local lake effect snow.
Saturday...Mainly VFR.

.MARINE...
Southeast winds today will veer to southwest and eventually westerly
tomorrow as a weakening area of low pressure cross the Eastern Great
Lakes region.

Cooler air will build across the lakes mid-week...such that CAA and
westerly flow will bring waves over 4 feet Wednesday...with small
craft advisories becoming likely.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KOUN 132052
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
252 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Impactful weather over the next several days is centered around
fire weather. Although, the weather/fuel environment does not
currently seem to support significant fire weather concern (see
details in fire weather section below). Otherwise, temperatures
will be normal to occasionally above normal for mid-December. One
low-medium probability precipitation opportunity will occur for
mainly eastern portions of the area Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Changes to the previous forecast were minimal.

Within northwesterly flow across the middle part of the country, a
weak shortwave is passing through. A band of cirrus across northern
Oklahoma early this afternoon is coincident with weak ascent
associated with this shortwave. This wave has sent a cold front into
the area today resulting in an increase in gusty northerly winds as
it passes.

There have been a few reports from northwest Oklahoma of some smoke
and this doesn't appear to be due to any local wildfire activity,
rather MODIS satellite suggests it is probably from the Legion Lake
fire in the Black Hills of South Dakota.

A more intense shortwave trough will move through tomorrow forcing a
more significant cold surge into the area early in the day. High
temperatures are expected to be around 15 degrees colder.

Latest model runs show a persistent trough in the east and
diminishing Rex Block pattern with slowly deamplifying ridge in the
west through the end of the week. This will support a continuation
of dry northwesterly flow aloft across our region. Notable changes
on the synoptic scale occur by Saturday. A closed low, now over
northern Baja California, will open up and eject northeastward in
response to deepening longwave trough in the west. Despite PWAT
values being significantly below normal now across Texas into the
western Gulf, modest moisture return will occur quickly in
response to this lead shortwave and should be enough for some
showers across roughly the eastern two-thirds of the area Saturday
night through early Sunday. Instability will be very weak at
best, possibly supporting a few weak thunderstorms as well.

Eastward progression of this longwave is where uncertainties arise.
Deterministic guidance is as much as 24 hours out of phase.
Generally, ECMWF and its ensemble mean are much quicker than the GFS
and most of its ensembles. If the GFS/GEFS is right, this could
offer another low probability precipitation event for the eastern
portions of the area sometime around Monday, but we have kept the
forecast dry for now given significant uncertainty.

BRB

.FIRE WEATHER...
Some fire activity will remain possible through this afternoon.
Latest Oklahoma mesonet observations show relative humidity
values around or below 20 percent for most of the area, and around
10-15 mph northerly winds behind the southward moving cold front.
This is resulting in elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions.

As mentioned above, a smoke smell may occur behind the cold front
moving through the state now. This smoke seems to be originating
from the Legion Lake fire in the Black Hills.

Latest shortwave band satellite imagery reveals one hotspot and
probable fire in western Love County. Local media reports and KTLX
radar indicate a minor fire in south OKC. No other ongoing
activity is known at this time, but additional initial attack
activity is certainly possible through the afternoon.

Cooler temperatures and comparatively higher relative humidity
should limit fire concerns tomorrow, and although humidity will be
lower Friday, winds should remain fairly light. The next fire
weather day is expected to be Saturday when gusty southerly winds
begin before a surge of low level moisture arrives. Elevated fire
weather conditions may result. Latest ERC-G values in western
Oklahoma where near or slightly above the 90th percentile which
would tend to enhance fire activity even if only marginal
meteorological conditions are realized.

BRB

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 65 35 47 30 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 67 33 50 27 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 68 34 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 64 29 49 23 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 63 32 47 28 / 0 0 0 10
Durant OK 69 36 53 34 / 0 0 0 0

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

26/12

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KPIH 090907
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
207 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday. Blocking upper high continues
to be the dominant feature for the short-term period. Surface
weather will be most influenced by the surface inversion. Fog and
stratus will continue to be the norm under these conditions. MODIS
nighttime microphysics imagery very similar to 24 hours ago with
fog/stratus trapped in the Snake Plain and adjacent valleys.
Freezing fog is present at a couple observation sites, but road
conditions have not responded as yet. Thus holding off on any
headline issuance for freezing fog. Main strategy for temps/RH was
to incorporate some persistence and carry it through Tuesday.
Hinsberger

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Friday. High pressure ridge
will continue to support inversion conditions through next Thursday
night. Models are then showing support and agreement on finally
breaking down the ridge and letting disturbances come in off the
Pacific, the first being Friday afternoon or night. Until then, will
continue to favor colder temperatures in the Snake Plain and some
valley areas, with potential for some fog and low stratus. RS

.AVIATION...Inversions continue to be problematic with low stratus
and areas of fog. KBYI is still on the edge of the stratus and has
the best potential for clouds scattering out in the afternoon. The
other location where skies may well remain VFR is KDIJ. Confidence
in low stratus at KDIJ in the early morning hours is marginal. The
NAM12 model continues to support the development of easterly winds
at the surface and in the boundary layer tonight and Sunday morning.
The inversion has been pretty strong, but this could transport some
of the status towards the west side of the state. RS

AIR STAGNATION...Inversions continue to hold and reduce air quality,
particularly for Franklin County where and Air Stagnation Advisory
remains in effect. Saturday night and Sunday morning, looking for
development of more persistent easterly winds at the surface and
near the top of the low level stratus in the Snake Plain. Both the
NAM and GFS models have supported this idea the past two days. It
probably will not get rid of the inversion completely, but it can
transport some of the low stratus out of the Snake Plain and
towards the west side of the state. RS

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KGRB 180810
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
310 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Warm and quiet weather for the rest of the work week, though it
will be quite windy at times. Turning cooler by early next week.

A very energetic band of low-amplitude westerlies was across
Canada and the far northern CONUS. The pattern will undergo some
amplification during the remainder of the work week, with a trough
forming near the West Coast and increased ridging over the Great
Lakes region. Additional changes will quickly follows as a much
stronger trough develops out near 160W. That will flip the
downstream pattern to one with a ridge near the West Coast and
troughing over the Great Lakes region by early next week.

Temperatures 10 to 20 F degrees above normal are expected into
the upcoming weekend, then readings will drop back much closer to
seasonal normals by early next week. The best chance for rain
will be with a frontal system crossing the area this weekend, but
that system seems unlikely to bring substantial rains, so amounts
are likely to end up below normal for the period.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Thursday
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Quiet weather is expected throughout the period as a series of
strong cyclones track east across Canada. It will be windy at
times. The main forecast issue is temperatures. Guidance was too
cool yesterday and looks too cool the next couple days as well.
Went with maxes for today that were a couple degrees above
yesterdays observed values at most locations. Thursday won't be
quite as warm as a cool front trailing from one of the Canadian
cyclones will cross the area tonight. But highs are still expected
to be above normal. The forecast pressure gradient and some CAA
suggest it's less likely low-levels will decouple completely
tonight. So shaved a couple degrees off mins in the typical cool
spots, but don't expect the drop we've seen at some locations this
morning.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Unseasonably warm weather will continue on Friday and into
Saturday (not as warm due to cloud cover/chances of rain).
Highs on Friday will be around 20 degrees above normal
away from the bay and lake, but just shy of the record high
for the date at this point. Have raised high temperatures on
Friday per coordination with surrounding offices.

Still some timing differences among the models with arrival
of the rain and when the cold front will pass through the area
over the weekend. Latest GFS/WRF model depict precipitation
breaking out with the southerly flow on Saturday, with main
precipitation with the cold front Saturday night into early
Sunday morning. Yesterday, the ECMWF was the slowest model
with the passage of the cold front. The 00z run tonight
has sped up this system. Best available of capes were between
200 and 400 J/kg. Will continue the small chances of thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon and evening. Mid level lapse rates were pretty
steep. The cold front will move away from the area Sunday
afternoon, bringing drier conditions to the region. Next system
approaches from the northwest late Sunday night, bringing another
chance of showers Monday into Monday night.

A significant change in the weather pattern is expected by the
end of next week. Northwest flow will become established across
the area, bringing an end to the unusually mild October weather.
In reality, temperatures will return closer to normal next week,
which will be a shock due to the expected warm weather this week.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Gusty surface winds today will probably be the most significant
aviation weather issue during the next 24 hours. Still expect
mainly just cirrus for clouds, though model RH progs have some
moisture around 850 mb so it's possible some lower clouds could
form. Still expect bases to be VFR though. The ongoing LLWS will
ease this morning as mixing deepens and surface winds increase and
become gusty. LLWS will redevelop late this afternoon in the east
as the boundary layer decouples. But weakening wind aloft and CAA
should result in LLWS easing overnight.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Opted to keep the SC.Y rather than upgrade to a GL.W. Some gale
force gusts are still likely, but it does not look as though they
will be widespread/persistent enough to warrant a Gale Warning.
MODIS satellite imagery indicated water temperatures over the NSH
waters were in the middle to upper 50s, so low-levels will be
stable as the strongest winds move through aloft.

Persistent strong southwest winds are likely to result in high
waves on Lake Michigan Friday into Sunday morning.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Skowronski
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......Skowronski
MARINE.........Skowronski/Eckberg

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 260832
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
332 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium.

Initial surge of moisture advection producing scattered showers
across western CWA early this morning. Expect this initial
surge to weaken early this morning as it encounters drier air
farther east. However reinforcing push of moisture advection
ahead of approaching cold front should trigger more scattered
showers and a few t-storms later this morning and afternoon
across southern WI. Prefer GFS solution with location of
frontal boundary at 12Z, however all short term guidance carry
weak low pressure over the tri-state area northeast across northern
WI this morning and into southern Canada by this evening. This
track will carry a cold front across southern WI today, exiting the
far southeast early this evening. Deep moisture in place along with
the passing front and enhanced synoptic lift from southern
extent of mid-level short wave should generate at least scattered
showers and a few t-storms across CWA today. Showers may remain
more scattered or isolated over far southeast WI which will be
farther away from synoptic forcing. Milwaukee record high is 88
today and starting out the day in the upper 60s or low 70s. However
increasing mid-high level clouds should keep high temps just below
reaching record levels.

Showers will diminish from west to east during the afternoon and
early evening. Increasing low level cold air advection will
likely pull in a period of low clouds from MN/IA for a time tonight
as temperatures dip into the upper 40s and 50s.

Wednesday - Confidence...High
A much cooler airmass will be in place. The cooler air brought in
by northwest winds. High pressure will be ridging into the area.
in the wake of the frontal boundary.

Thursday - Confidence...Medium to High
A brief thermal ridge works in ahead of another front that will
be dropping south into northern WI associated with low pressure
moving east of Lake Superior. 925 temps bounce back to the mid
teens celsius with more of a westerly flow ahead of the front.
Showers associated with this feature are expected to remain in
northern WI. The cold front drops in Thursday evening. Models are
not doing much with this feature its passage thus pops are mostly
on the dry side.

Friday through Sunday - Confidence...Medium to High
High pressure regains control and the influence of this feature
dominates through the weekend. The high will shift off to the east
into the eastern Lakes for Saturday and the NE US for Sunday. A
return flow sets up for Sunday but at this time the progs suggest
all precip will remain to our west in the Plains in association
with a low pressure trough there. The coldest 925 temps are
expected Friday night into Saturday morning with a gradual rebound
for the balance of the weekend.

Monday - Confidence...Low
The ECMWF and to a lesser extent the GEM show a quicker advance of
the Plains trough into the Upper Midwest with a more progressive
mid level pattern. The GFS keeps Monday dry with a slower more
amplified 500 millibar trough. Looks like we should see a bump in
the 925 temps deeper into the teens celsius.

.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...A few showers may brush the Madison area
early this morning. Otherwise, expect scattered showers and
isolated t-storms to develop later this morning and afternoon
across southern WI as a cold front sweeps through southern WI.
Ceilings may drop to MVFR due to passing showers. Increasing
northwest winds behind front may pull in a period of low stratus
across the area tonight.

.MARINE...Light southwest winds will back to mostly a south
direction this morning and waver between south and southeast for the
afternoon due to inland heating. Wind gusts may reach 15 knots.
Recent MODIS imagery shows lake temperatures have rebounded back
into the upper 60s to around 70 well offshore while pockets of
cooler lake surface temps were located from offshore of Sheboygan
county south to Wind Point. A cold front is expected to pass across
the nearshore waters late this afternoon and evening turning winds
to the WNW. A tightening pressure gradient and the surge of cooler
air will result in increasing winds overnight, with gusts
approaching Small Craft Advisory levels into early Wednesday. For
now, looks like most gusts will remain below 22 knots so wl hold off
on issuing Small Craft Advisory, but mariners should be prepared for
gusty offshore winds developing tonight.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Wednesday through Monday...Collar

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 210840
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
340 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium to High.

Cirrus shield from IA/IL convection over southern WI preventing fog
from becoming more widespread and dense. GOES-16 night time
microphysics enhancement showing slight warming and thinning of the
cirrus shield in northenr IA, which makes sense as convection wanes
as Mesoscale convective vortex in vicinity of KDVN continues moving
southeast. Removed pops from early this morning in the southwest.
Due to cirrus shield thinning, will continue to mention patchy
fog due to light winds and high low level humidity.

Quasi-station boundary draped across southern IA and central IL will
begin moving northward today in response to upstream short wave trof
over eastern MT moving eastward through the northern Plains. Deep
moisture with precipitable water values approaching 2 inches is tied
to the warm front. Increasing warm air and moisture advection into
southwest and central WI wl likely trigger scattered thunderstorms
this afternoon. Influx of low 70 dewpoints will aid in MUCape
values increasing to 2-4000 j while bulk shear increases to 20-
40kts. Thinking a few severe storms may affect northwest CWA this
afternoon. Can not rule out an isolated tornado with approaching
boundary and low level shear increasing to 20 kts. SPC Storm scale
Ensemble of Opportunity shows higher updraft helicity and speeds
remaining just west of the area.

Strengthening low level jet will result in rapid convection
initiation upsteam over southeast MN/western WI during the evening.
This will transition to wind and hail event which will likely track
along the warm front which by that time should be draped across
southern Wisconsin. Low level jet pivots east and south carrying
strong convection across southern WI overnight. Axis of heavy
rainfall has shifted slightly northward more into southern WI so wl
expand Flash Flood Watch farther northeast to include Marquette,
Dodge, Waukesha and Milwaukee counties. Many areas could receive
overnight rainfall exceeding 2 inches. 3 hour flash flood guidance
in this area is less than 2 inches. Also these areas received heavy
rain in the recent past so antecendent conditions remain moist. For
more discussion on tonight's rainfall, check out below hydrology
section.

.LONG TERM...

Saturday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is Medium.

We will lose our stronger forcing Saturday morning, but the front
may take a few more hours to sag south of the WI/IL border after
the main round of storms exits. It's a small chance but there
could still be a few showers and weak storms that fire up along
any lingering outflow boundaries or the front through the
afternoon into the early evening. The rest of Saturday night
will be dry as a deeper layer of dry air tracks over the area.

A more amplified and robust upper trough is expected to roll
across Lake Superior on Sunday. The ECMWF is fastest with this
feature. The associated surface low should move across northern
WI that drags a cold front through southern WI midday Sunday.
There could be a few showers and storms associated with this
Sunday afternoon and early evening, but moisture and instability
are still questionable.

Monday through Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium.

High pressure will keep us dry and relatively cool for the first
part of next week. Cyclonic flow may push some low clouds into
southeast WI Monday morning along a secondary cold front. Thus
highs are only expected in the lower 70s.

Another upper low will roll through Ontario Tue night into
Wednesday and extend a surface frontal boundary into central WI.
This stalled boundary will be the focus for our next chance for
storms Wed through Fri morning as it wavers over the area.

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Cirrus shield from IA/IL convection over
southern Wisconsin preventing fog from becoming more widespread and
dense. GOES-16 nighttime microphysics enhancement showing slight
warming and thinning of the cirrus shield in northern IA. Expect
thinning to continue through the early morning as convection to the
south wanes. Hence light fog wl continue to affect southern WI
through the early morning with the fog becoming localized dense,
especially in the northern CWA. Scattered thunderstorms will
develop over south central WI this afternoon and transition to
heavy rain/wind event overnight.

.MARINE...

Light winds will allow patchy fog to develop closer to the shore
early this morning. The fog should be shallower and quickly
dissipate. Recent MODIS imagery measured Lake Michigan sea surface
temp has warmed into the upper 60s to lower 70s as recent winds have
remained light resulting in little upwelling. Mariners main concern
will be a period of thunderstorms tonight. These thunderstorms may
produce damaging downburst winds and large hail. Most favored time
is 03Z-10Z.

.HYDROLOGY...

Will continue Flash Flood Watch across southern WI and expand into a
few counties farther east including Marquette, Dodge, Waukesha and
Milwaukee. 3 hour Flash Flood Guidance is less than 2 inches in
these areas. Precipitable water will increase to around 2 inches
this afternoon and tonight, which is well above the normal for mid-
July. These values are causing the North American Ensemble Forecast
System standardized anomolies to close in on 3 units tonight. Return
Interval for these elevated PW is getting into the one day every 1-2
year. With strength of low level jet and passing right entrance
region of upper level jet, significant flooding event could occur
tonight somewhere in southern Wisconsin. Fortunately, Corfidi
vectors remain progressive most of the night, but hint at possible
back-building late, most likely after MCS has passed off to the
east. Biggest hydrology concern is for those areas in northwest CWA
which received heavy rainfall Wednesday night/Thursday morning
including Sauk, Iowa and Dane counties. Rock Springs on Baraboo
River already forecast to get close to Major flood. Will be
watching hydrographs closely in next 24 hours.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through Saturday morning
for WIZ056-057-062>064-067>072.

LM...None.
&&

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Saturday through Thursday...Cronce

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 191435
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
935 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.UPDATE...
An elongated stretch of low clouds exists from the Milwaukee
Metro area west towards Madison...and is about 30-50 miles wide
from north to south. As drier air works slowly into the region and
the day heats up with better mixing the low clouds will fade away
through the late morning and afternoon. Current dewpts are high
with most around 70...slightly drier but muggy in the upper 60s
north of the clouds. Rest of forecast looks to be in solid shape
with no other tweaks needed at this time.

.MARINE...
Recent MODIS imagery measured Lake Michigan surface temps in the
60s to around 70. Light winds continuing with some low clouds and
areas of fog along the nearshore. As drier air moves southward
later this morning and afternoon, the threat of low clouds and fog
will diminish. Dry conditions are expected most of today into
this evening as winds becoming north to northeast. A few wind
gusts to 15-18 knots will be possible later this morning. A period
of thunderstorms may sweep across the near shore waters after
midnight tonight, possibly producing strong wind gusts.

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 659 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017)

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...Patchy low clouds and stratus will continue
to affect southern WI this morning as surface wind shift and front
sag south through far southern WI. Expect the stratus to
eventually thin and become more few-sct later this morning and
aftn.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 348 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017)

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium.

The overnight showers and storms have diminished and pushed off to
the east and south. However weak frontal boundary remains over
southern WI along with some weak MUCape. Hence can not rule out an
isolated shower or storm redeveloping next several hours, mainly
across southern CWA. In addition, patchy fog may become briefly
dense due to the light winds and high low level moisture through the
early morning. The fog threat will diminish by mid-morning as winds
pickup from the north to northeast and slightly drier air moves in
from the north. A mostly dry day lies ahead for the area with some
reprieve from the humid conditions in the northern CWA. Humid
conditions wl linger across the southwest. Sunshine should help
temperatures recover into the 80s most area, but onshore flow wl
keep lakeshore temps a bit cooler in the mid 70s to around 80.

Stalled frontal boundary to the south of WI this afternoon will
begin moving back to the north tonight in response to strong
synoptic scale forcing moving across the upper midwest. Right
entrance region of upper jet passes across the northern Plains into
the western Great Lakes tonight, resulting in a period of strong
upper level divergence moving across portions of MN into WI and IA
tngt. All short term guidance in good agreement on vigorous low
level jet developing across southern MN this evening and then
spreading east or southeast overnight. ECMWF and GEM spread strong
low level convergence mainly eastward into central and northern WI,
while GFS and NAM farther south. Strong WNW winds at 700H and 500H
would typically carry the developing MCS southeast along the
strengthening quasi-stationary boundary that will extend from
southern MN across eastern IA into the vicinity of southern
WI/northern IL. Hence leaning more on southern solutions and wl
continue likely wording for thunder in the 06Z-12Z period. Not
impossible a bow echo/high wind event may occur and affect the area.
SPC higher risk category may spread farther east into southern WI
later today. Expect tonights convection to move at a higher rate of
speed southeast, and not expecting storms to repeatedly affect an
area resulting in flooding rains. However, some areas may still
receive an inch of rainfall overnight with high rainfall rates
resulting in ponding of water and minor street flooding.

LONG TERM...

Thursday... Forecast confidence is Medium.

Showers and storms will taper off across southern WI Thu morning.
It will take several hours for the atmosphere to recover, and we
will likely lack forcing for additional showers or storms the rest
of the day since the front/outflow will presumably be down in IL.
Still, I kept the slight chance in the fcst in case any weak
boundaries can trigger a shower or storm.

We will still be in a warm and humid air mass, so expect highs to
reach the mid 80s but is dependent upon cloud cover. The front
will begin to lift back northward Thu night, so there are
increasing chances for storms after midnight.

Friday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is Medium.

Heavy rainfall possible this period. Southern WI is in a prime
area for showers and storms over a fairly long period of time late
this week. There will be zonal flow aloft with a few
ripples/shortwaves, the right entrance region of the upper jet
tracking over central WI, warm air advection, and moisture
transport on the nose of the low level jet from Friday afternoon
through Saturday morning. Precipitable water values are expected
to be around 2 inches during this time, which is around 175% of
normal. Showers with isolated thunder should be very efficient
during this time and we will continue to monitor this period for a
flash flood potential.

Saturday night looks dry as high pressure briefly passes by.

Sunday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A more amplified upper trough is expected to roll across Lake
Superior on Sunday. The associated surface low should move across
northern WI that drags a cold front through southern WI midday
Sunday. There could be a few showers and storms associated with
this, but moisture and instability are still questionable.

High pressure will keep us dry and relatively cool for the first
part of next week. Our next chance for storms will arrive with a
warm front Tuesday night.

HYDROLOGY...

The round of thunderstorms tonight is expected to be progressive
with up to an inch of rain. Thus, this period does not look like a
flash flood threat or one that would exacerbate river flooding.

The time period to watch for excessive rainfall is Friday
afternoon through Saturday night. This active period of weather
has the potential for training of storms over the same areas to
bring the risk for heavy rainfall.

This would aggravate ongoing flooding across far southeast
Wisconsin, and create flooding issues elsewhere, especially in
urban areas. Once more confidence is gained with timing of these
rounds of storms, expected rainfall amounts will become more clear.
Keep up with the latest forecasts into this weekend.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Update...ABS
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...ABS
Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...ABS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 190848
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
348 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium.

.LONG TERM...

Thursday... Forecast confidence is Medium.

Friday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is Medium.

Saturday night looks dry as high pressure briefly passes by.

Sunday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

High pressure will keep us dry and relatively cool for the first
part of next week. Our next chance for storms will arrive with a
warm front Tuesday night.

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Light winds high low level moisture are
allowing patchy fog and low clouds to develop across the area. Would
expect this trend to continue for a few more hours until mid-morning
or so as winds become more northeasterly and increase. Hence patchy
IFR cigs and vsbys may affect TAF sites for a few hours. Otherwise,
a VFR day lies ahead. Still looking like a period of thunderstorms
will affect parts of southern WI after midnight tonight. Strong
winds may accompany the storms.

.MARINE...

Recent MODIS imagery measured Lake Michigan surface temps in the 60s
to around 70. Light winds for a time this morning along with high
surface moisture may result in areas of fog developing. As drier
air moves southward later this morning and afternoon, the threat of
fog will diminish. Dry conditions are expected most of today into
this evening as winds becoming north to northeast. A few wind gusts
to 15-18 knots will be possible later this morning. A period of
thunderstorms may sweep across the near shore waters after midnight
tonight, possibly producing strong wind gusts.

.HYDROLOGY...

The round of thunderstorms tonight is expected to be progressive
with up to an inch of rain. Thus, this period does not look like a
flash flood threat or one that would exacerbate river flooding.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Thursday through Tuesday...Cronce

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 150219
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
919 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.UPDATE...

Stratocumulus continues to erode due to building subsidence.
Temperatures will fall to/or below crossover temperature
overnight. With boundary layer winds less than 10 knots, and
mostly clear skies, expanded patchy fog farther east and lowered
overnight lows 1-3 degrees most areas.

.AVIATION (03Z TAFS)...

Stratocumulus continues to thin and dissipate across southern
Wisconsin. Should be clear by 03-04Z across the area. With
boundary layer winds less than 10 knots, and little drop in
dewpoints, wl continue to mention late night fog.

.MARINE...

Light winds to persist through tonight, becoming offshore. Recent
MODIS sea surface temperature imagery suggested some cooler waters
have risen to the surface due to upwelling. Water temperatures
have lowered into the 50s in some pockets of the near shore
waters. With light winds and area dewpoints about 5 to 10 degrees
warmer, added patchy fog mention to northern zones for late
tonight.

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 625 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017)

UPDATE...Widespread evening clearing may take several hours
longer than originally anticipated. Latest GOES-16 images showing
cu and stratocumulus thinning and dissipating over eastern areas
but still a large area of bkn-ovc sc north over south central WI.
Still expect clearing to take place in building subsidence
overnight with some patchy late night fog.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...BKN-OVC stratocumulus should continue to
thin and dissipate through the evening as subsidence builds into
the area. Late night fog may reduce visibilities to 2 to 4 miles,
possibly lower in more susceptible areas.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 336 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Saturday...Forecast Confidence is High.

These low clouds are finally breaking up and will gradually clear
later this evening as we lose daytime heating and some drier air
aloft reaches us. Radiational cooling and dewpoints sticking
around the upper 50s should allow for some patchy fog to develop
tonight as the surface high tracks over southern WI. The better
chance for fog is over south central WI.

I can't rule out early morning lakeshore fog because dewpoints
are right around the water temperature, but not enough confidence
to put in the forecast at this time.

We should be mostly sunny during the day Saturday. Warm air being
pumped into western WI out ahead of the approaching cold front on
southwesterly winds will help us to reach lower 80s for highs.

Saturday night and Sunday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

A broad upper trough forms over the Great Lakes with another
modest speed max pushing into southern Wisconsin late Saturday
night. Upper divergence increases with moderate 700 mb upward
motion Saturday evening. The 850 mb thermal ridge is across
southern Wisconsin during the evening, then dropping south into
illinois late. 850 mb dewpoints rise to 14 Celsius. 850 mb winds
are west northwest early evening, then northwest late, becoming
north later Sunday.

The cold front moves across the forecast area Saturday night,
exiting the far south just after sunrise. The cap weakens early
evening, as zero to 1 km mixed layer CAPE rises to almost 2000
Joules/kg. Showers/thunderstorms are expected with the cold front.
GFS forecast soundings are showing a bit more severe potential
with surface to 1 km shear around 22 knots.

Mid, then low level drying behind the front Sunday. A northeast
flow will cool areas, especially near Lake Michigan.

LONG TERM...

Monday through Friday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

An upper ridge extends into Wisconsin Monday before the upper
flow becomes more zonal Tuesday and Tuesday night. The zonal flow
continues through Wednesday and Thursday and a bit more northwest
Friday, as a broad trough forms near and then just east of the
Hudson Bay area.

Surface high pressure will be over the great Lakes Monday.

A warmer return flow sets up for Tuesday. As the upper flow
becomes more zonal, the chance of thunderstorms will return from
Tuesday evening into Friday with several periods of thunderstorms.
the best chances are Wednesday into Thursday with a heavy rain
potential.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Clouds with bases 2000 to 3000 ft range are gradually rising to
greater than 3000 ft and breaking up a little. Light west winds
and mostly clear skies are then expected tonight with high
pressure over the area. Radiational cooling could cause patchy
fog to develop, more likely in south central WI.

Mostly sunny skies Saturday. Then a cold front will track
southeast through WI and could kick up some storms Saturday
evening.

MARINE...

Light winds and waves tonight with high pressure spreading into
the area. Can't rule out early morning lakeshore fog because
dewpoints are right around the water temperature, but not enough
confidence to put in the forecast at this time. Increasing
southwest winds will move any lake fog offshore by late morning.

Gusty north to northeast winds are then expected for Sunday into
Sunday evening. Some gusts to 22 knots are possible at times.
Waves may build to 3 to 5 feet during this time. Thus, a Small
Craft Advisory may be needed for Sunday into Sunday night.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Update/Aviation/Marine...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 040209
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
909 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION (03Z TAFS)

VFR condition expected, except for IFR early morning fog mainly in
the Wisconsin River valley.

High pressure slowly moving to the east of Lake Superior tonight
into Tuesday will bring quiet weather to the area. A few middle to
high clouds may pass through overnight, though mostly clear skies
are expected. More diurnal cumulus clouds expected on Tuesday.
Winds will remain light out of the east on Tuesday.

.MARINE...

Lake surface temperatures via the latest MODIS satellite imagery
were showing values around 59 degrees Fahrenheit. Dewpoints are
expected to continue to slowly drop into the 50s this evening,
which should negate any redevelopment of fog.

Light northeast to east winds are expected tonight into Tuesday
night, with high pressure passing by to the northeast of the
region. This will bring quiet weather, with low wave heights.

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 256 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017)

TONIGHT AND INDEPENDENCE DAY...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

Area of showers and thunderstorms over east central Iowa into
northern Illinois will remain in that area into this evening. Area
of fog east of Milwaukee has finally dissipated, and this area
should remain clear into this evening.

Diurnal cumulus clouds will gradually dissipate early this
evening. There may be a few middle to high clouds overnight, but
most of the night should be clear. Light winds should allow for a
relatively cool night, with lows in the middle 50s in most areas.
It should be a little warmer near the lakeshore.

High pressure will continue to slowly slide east of Lake Superior
into Tuesday. The high will bring dry easterly flow and bring a
pleasant day. Mild temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s are
expected inland, with onshore winds keeping lower to middle 70s
near Lake Michigan.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

Shortwave energy will carve out a closed mid-level cyclone over the
lower Missouri valley on Tuesday. Models then project the closed
circulation to lift northeast on Wednesday, as moisture from this
system combines with that of a northern stream wave approaching
the western Great Lakes. Thereafter, look for the low to devolve
to an open-wave trough as it swings east into the Ohio Valley and
lower Great Lakes on Thursday.

Surface high pressure will be in control Tuesday evening, with dry
southeasterly flow preventing much intrusion of low-level moisture
into southern Wisconsin. This should keep us high and dry for the
evening's fireworks displays, with pleasant temperatures in the mid
60s to lower 70s. Cloud cover will be increasing however, especially
from around Madison west.

The surface high shifts east on Wednesday, allowing deeper moisture
to spread into western portions of our area. Column integrated
precipitable water values climb to around 1.6 inches by afternoon,
with dewpoints nearing 70 degrees west of Madison. Several model
solutions keep a west to east oriented dewpoint/low-level moisture
gradient in place through the afternoon and evening, suggesting we
may still be battling the high's residual influence. The best
focused moisture transport remains to our northwest (closer to the
mid-level wave) and south (near the deep layer low), but we do see
some slight increase by late afternoon, as warm cloud depths
thicken to around 3.5 km. Aforementioned moisture combined with
diabatic heating should lead to widely scattered shower and
thunderstorm development during Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Model forecast soundings suggest anywhere from 500 to 1200 J/kg of
MLCAPE is possible in our west, but our instability will
ultimately hinge on a) the amount of heating we receive, and b)
the speed and quality of our boundary layer moisture recovery.
Deep layer shear in the 0-6 km layer appears somewhat meager, with
magnitudes on the order of 20 to 25 knots. The Storm Prediction
Center's Day 3 thunderstorm outlook places our western areas in a
marginal risk for severe weather on Wednesday, and this seems
prudent, with a few storms possibly producing gusty winds and/or
hail.

Another shortwave drops down from the northwest on Thursday
afternoon and evening. The 03.12z deterministic GFS solution is both
stronger and deeper with the wave as compared to the 03.12z Canadian
and 03.00z ECMWF solutions. Both the GFS and Canadian solutions
bring shower/thunderstorm chances into southern Wisconsin from
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, while the ECMWF keeps us
dry. Will defer to the consensus PoPs during this time given the
uncertainty.

Temperatures during this period will be seasonal, with cooler
readings in the east due to periods of onshore flow.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

Most of the global models build high pressure into our area from the
northwest on Friday, with the 03.00z ECMWF being the lone outlier.
Its solution would keep the shower/thunderstorm chances going into
early Friday afternoon. For now, will stick with the dry
consensus.

High pressure and slightly cooler temperatures should prevail for
the weekend, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms possibly
returning for Sunday night and/or Monday.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

Any shower/storm activity will remain south of the Illinois
border into this evening. Scattered to broken diurnal cumulus
clouds should dissipate early this evening. Light northeast to
east winds are expected into tonight. The fog over the lake
east of Milwaukee has finally dissipated, and should remain fog
free into this evening.

MARINE...

Fog east of Milwaukee has finally dissipated, and this area should
remain fog free into this evening. Lake surface temperatures via
the latest MODIS satellite imagery were showing values around 59
degrees Fahrenheit. Dewpoints are expected to continue to slowly
drop into the 50s this evening, which should negate any
redevelopment of fog.

Light northeast to east winds are expected tonight into Tuesday
night, with high pressure passing by to the northeast of the
region. This will bring quiet weather, with low wave heights.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Update...Hentz
Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Wood
Tuesday Night through Monday...SPM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 031956
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
256 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.TONIGHT AND INDEPENDENCE DAY...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

Temperatures during this period will be seasonal, with cooler
readings in the east due to periods of onshore flow.

.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

High pressure and slightly cooler temperatures should prevail for
the weekend, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms possibly
returning for Sunday night and/or Monday.

.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

.MARINE...

Light northeast to east winds are expected tonight into Tuesday
night, with high pressure passing by to the northeast of the
region. This will bring quiet weather, with low wave heights.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Wood
Tuesday Night through Monday...SPM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 031528 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1028 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.UPDATE...

Area of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the far southern
counties should continue to gradually shift to the southeast of
the Illinois border by early this afternoon. These were being
driven by some low level frontogenesis and weak 925 mb to 850 mb
convergence.

In addition, some fog may affect areas along the lakeshore from
south of Sheboygan to around downtown Milwaukee until early
afternoon. Some diurnal cumulus clouds should develop by the
afternoon, with pleasant summer temperatures. Onshore winds will
keep lakeshore areas cooler than normal.

Wood

.MARINE...

Areas of fog will linger until early this afternoon across the
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan, mainly between Sheboygan and
McKinley Marina in Milwaukee. Latest visible satellite imagery
continues to show the fog across these areas, with a slow
decreasing trend.

This area has cool lake surface temperatures in the upper 40s
from the most recent MODIS satellite imagery, which combined with
dewpoints in the middle to upper 50s is allowing the fog to form.
Onshore winds into the afternoon should bring some downwelling
conditions, and allow lake temperatures to warm. This should help
the fog dissipate.

Wood

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 636 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017)

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Isolated showers and t-storms will continue to affect far southern
WI through the morning, but should end by late morning or early
afternoon as instability axis continues to shift farther south.
Patchy fog will linger several more hours near Lake Michigan in
parts of Ozaukee and Sheboygan counties before dissipating.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 305 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017)

DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium to High.

Drier, more stable air continues to slowly settle southward across
southern WI. However there remains a weak instability axis over the
far south, where MUCape is around 500 j/kg. Isolated showers and t-
storms have been moving along Cape gradient toward southwest WI from
south of Decorah IA last several hours. Possible this isolated
activity may carry into the Darlington, Mineral Point and Monroe
areas into the early morning. Eventually instability axis and
deeper column moisture will settle farther south into northern IL by
late morning or early afternoon. However an isolated early
afternoon t-storm may brush far southern Lafayette or Green
Counties. Otherwise, dry and less humid conditions are expected as
weak high pressure builds into the western Great Lakes.

Light winds and high low level moisture has allowed patchy fog to
develop over parts of northern and eastern CWA where skies have been
more clear to partly cloudy. Several observations reporting 3-5
miles in light fog while KSBM has fallen to 1/2 mile. However
nearby webcams show thicker fog remains quite patchy in the
Sheboygan area. Hence wl stick with patchy fog wording through the
early morning. Light winds expected again tonight but a bit more
mixing expected just above shallow inversion. With potential of
high clouds returning tonight, will hold off on adding fog mention
for tonight.

Tuesday - Confidence...Medium
Mid level ridging combined with a lower level anticyclone will
likely keep things dry. Bufkit soundings from both the NAM and GFS
show a decent amount of drier air in the lower levels with little
in the way of MUCAPE. The better return flow remains to our west
and though 850 dew points nudge up a bit into the southwest cwa
where a southerly flow picks up a bit more there.

Tuesday night and Wednesday - Confidence...Medium
A 500 millibar shortwave will approach the area Tuesday night with
some increase in DCVA and an eastward translation of better 850
moisture advection. The 00z GFS did scale things back precip-wise
from the prior 18z run and now actually holds things back quite a
bit during the overnight hours. The ECMWF is a compromise between
the more robust GEM solution and the slower GFS. Better consensus
between the GFS and ECMWF for SHRA/TSRA to overspread the area on
Wednesday as the 500 millibar shortwave enhances forcing across
the area.

Thursday - Confidence...Medium
The 500 millibar trough axis shifts east of srn WI with a
northwest flow taking hold. The progs show an increase WAA from
the west with the GFS showing additional precip development ahead
of low pressure and a cold front approaching from the northwest.
The ECMWF and GEM keep it dry in the afternoon with just lingering
morning chances associated with the exiting wave.

Thursday night and Friday - Confidence...Medium
A cold front is proggd to drop into the area with some SHRA/TSRA
expected. The GEM is the only dry model for area keeping this
precip to our north. the ECMWF has better precip coverage on
Friday morning versus the GFS which has the better potential
Thursday night. By Friday afternoon 850 cool advection gets
underway and this is more pronounced on the GFS.

Saturday and Sunday - Confidence...Medium
Surface/850 high pressure dominates this period with lingering
low level thermal trough in place. High drifts east on Sunday with
winds turning more to the southwest.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...Patchy MVFR cigs floating around far
southwest CWA last several hours, however expect these lower cigs
to erode or lift to VFR as drier air continues to settle into
southern WI. Can not rule out an isolated shower or t-storm into
the early morning over the far south as well. Patchy fog will also
lower visibilities for a few hours in the north and east until
12z or so this morning. Visibilities may drop to less than 1 mile
for an hour or two. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to persist
for much of the forecast period.

MARINE...Onshore winds are now expected for the next several days,
at least into Wednesday. Wind speeds will remain lighter as well.
Next chance for more widespread showers and storms will be
Wednesday into Wednesday night.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Update...Wood
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...Collar

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 011449
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
949 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017

.UPDATE...Near perfect day setting up over southern Wisconsin with
light winds, low humidity and temperatures rising into the 70s.
925H temps favor temps rising into the mid to upper 70s, with a
few western locations cracking 80. Developing lake breeze will
keep lakeshore locations hovering in the mid 60s to low 70s much
of the afternoon.

.MARINE...Light and variable winds over the nearshore waters will
be turning onshore in the next 1-3 hours as lake breeze develops.
Light pressure gradient due to nearby high pressure will result in
wind speeds remaining mostly less than 10 knots. Latest MODIS
imagery shows Lake Michigan surface temperatures have warmed into
the upper 40s to lower 50s in the near shore waters as well as to
mid-lake. Average Lake Michigan surface water temperature running
close to the long-term average for June 1st.

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 643 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017)

UPDATE...

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions for
today and tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High.

High pressure will prevail over the western Great Lakes and the
Ohio River Valley. Full sunshine will yield high temps in the
upper 70s well away from Lake MI. A lake breeze will develop by
late morning. Lows tnt in the 50s.

LONG TERM...

Friday through Sunday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

After a short run of mostly sunny skies and dry weather, an
active pattern will set up for the end of the week and weekend.
Expect increasing shower/storm chances Friday into Saturday as low
pressure approaches. The low is then progged to move through Sat
night.

There will be a pretty good moisture surge Friday night and
again Saturday as the low approaches, with precipitable water
values up around 1.5 inches and dewpoints as high as the mid/upper
60s. Could see a couple storms reach severe levels Fri night and
Saturday, with SPC highlighting a Marginal Risk across much of the
forecast area both Fri and Sat. Wind flow and shear not that
impressive, but plenty of instability.

It looks drier Sunday, though a shortwave rotating through on the
back side of the upper low may kick of a few showers/storms.

Models have come into better agreement with a warmer pattern Fri
through the weekend. Expect above normal temps each day, though
clouds and precip could throw a wrench in things on Saturday. If
there is a break in the action, Saturday has the potential to be
the warmest day, with highs in the 80 to 85 range.

Monday through Wednesday...Forecast confidence is medium:

Could see a shower or two Monday as another weak wave rotates
through the backside of the broad cyclonic flow centered to the
east. High pressure is then expected to bring dry weather for
Tue/Wed.

Temps look like they will be within a few degrees of normal for
the first half of next week.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions for
today and tonight.

MARINE...

Light winds and low wave heights for today and Fri. Lake breezes
will occur each day.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Update/Marine...MBK
Today/Tonight and Aviation...MG
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 200826
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
326 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium to High.

700H warm air advection which triggered strong storms over northeast
CWA Sunday evening has since pushed well to the east of the area.
Focus is now on low level warm air advection associated with 850H
jet. However LLJ has been focused across eastern IA and northern IL
where numerous thunderstorms are currently located. This activity
is tracking ESE and should continue through the early morning.
However wl carry small pops in far south through the early morning
as elevated instability lingers across northern IL as low level
trof axis passes through.

Latest IR imagery shows mid-level clouds progressing steadily
eastward last several hours with only high clouds over most of the
area. Not seeing much stratus developing near inverted trof/front
at this time, but could still develop as it progresses eastward
across srn WI this morning. Bit more low level moisture drawn into
the low levels from storms to the south could help low clouds form
for a time as well. Otherwise, expect a milder day but can't get
too excited due to the bkn-ovc cloud cover expected much of the day
and light winds becoming NE. Also, weak upstream 700H short wave
over Dakotas weakens as it progresses ESE but may bring a few light
showers to northern CWA later this afternoon, along with more mid-
level cloudiness. Increasing northeast winds will also cause
lakeshore areas to cool during the afternoon and evening as lake
surface temps are mostly in the 35 to 40 degree range. Benign
conditions to continue tonight with slightly colder temps.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

A cold front will drop through WI Tuesday in response to a shortwave
trough and surface low crossing Lake Superior. Gusty north-northeast
winds will accelerate down Lake Michigan faster than on land. Lake
temperatures are running 35-37F/2-3C range. 850mb temps are expected
to be in the -9 to -11C range and falling. The difference is
right in that preferred range for lake effect snow showers. Thus,
added a mention of flurries for now and increased sky cover
significantly when the anticipated lake band(s) affect southeast
WI (late Tue afternoon through overnight. Will continue to watch
for potential of measurable snow.

Wednesday should be a cold and clear day, with the exception of some
lake effect clouds due to easterly winds. Highs are expected in the
30s near the lakeshore and around 40 well inland.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

Southerly winds with return flow around the high will usher moisture
back into southern WI by Thu evening. A weak shortwave could bring
light precip (snow) to northern WI late Wed night, but this should
miss southern WI or just give us flurries.

Warm frontal precip is expected to arrive late Thu afternoon or
evening. Models are coming into better agreement now. The strong
warm air advection should allow for this precip to be in the form of
rain across southern WI. Went with non-diurnal temp trend Thu night.

The weather pattern favors thunderstorms over the Midwest ahead of
this mid level trough over the Plains. There is a small chance for
thunder Thu night with the warm front, but probably a better chance
Friday along the cold front. Too early and uncertain to discuss
severe potential for southern WI.

Models diverge for Saturday. WI weather will depend on where the
closed upper low tracks.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

It looks like a very active weather pattern for next week with a
series of shortwave troughs tracking into the Midwest from the
Plains. Temperatures appear warm enough for all rain.

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Skies are clearing across south central WI
although believe clouds at 3-4 kft will remain most of the night
and Mon AM near the IL border. Slight chances of showers and
tstorms will continue tonight into Mon AM especially near the IL
border. A weak cold front will pass Mon AM and moisture within the
frontal zone may lead to MVFR Vsbys around sunrise. Partly cloudy
skies are likely for much of Mon with mid level clouds possibly
increasing for late afternoon and evening.

LLWS may be possible into the early overnight via a swly 35-40 kt
LLJ.

.MARINE...

Gusts to 22 knots reported at SGNW3 at 07z. Thinking this may be
related to outflow from earlier convection so expect winds to settle
down early. Light onshore flow wl turn to the north to northeast
this afternoon after cold frontal passage. Gusts with these winds
may get close to Small Craft levels. Recent MODIS imagery estimates
lake surface temps in the mid to upper 30s. With mild air remaining
aloft, hoping that low level inversion wl prevent stronger wind
gusts from reaching lake surface. In addition, GFS showing weaker
winds in the low levels compared to NAM and RAP. This is a weak
excuse however as NAM/RAP solutions typically better in forecasting
gusts over near shore waters. Due to low level inversion and model
discrepancy, wl hold off on issuing Small Craft for now. Better
chance for stronger wind gusts Tuesday night into Wednesday as much
colder air sags south across the Great Lakes.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Tuesday through Sunday...Cronce

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KHUN 231025
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
425 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Moisture advection and shallow isentropic ascent has led to low
stratus development around 1.5 to 2.5 kft this morning in eastern
areas, generally from Franklin County (TN) southward through much of
Jackson and DeKalb Counties. Patchy fog had developed by late in the
evening as indicated by several observation sites, however
MODIS/VIIRS RGB satellite images have shown that the fog is very
limited in coverage and largely located in narrow valleys adjacent to
the plateau. Since the low stratus has developed and moved across
the area, some, if not most, of this valley fog has dissipated.
Elsewhere, patchy fog was present along/near the TN River channel
around Wheeler/Wilson Lakes and nearby low-lying communities.
Nevertheless, the fog does not appear to be sufficiently dense or
widespread to warrant a dense fog advisory at this time. Temperatures
have fallen into the mid to upper 50s at most locations early this
morning, and will remain near stationary until sunrise.

Any remaining fog will quickly dissipate after sunrise this morning.
The low stratus currently in the east and in areas to our south will
gradually spread farther westward, perhaps into the
Huntsville/Decatur metro area later this morning. However, this cloud
deck will tend to disperse during the afternoon. Temperatures this
afternoon are likely to reach the low/mid 70s for most locations.
The most likely adjustments made to the forecast later may be to
address issues with cloud cover and impacts to temps though, since
the timing of dissipation and extent of the low cloud deck remains a
little uncertain.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

A broad, partially closed upper low currently in the Western CONUS
will move into the Plains states as it phases with a northern stream
trough in central Canada tonight and Friday. In response, a surface
low will develop and briefly strengthen along the baroclinic boundary
stretching across the Plains and Upper Midwest while a surface cold
front moves into the Mississippi Valley region. In the warm sector
in advance of this front, temperatures may soar into the upper 70s
across many locations in the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures as high
as 80 degrees may occur particularly in NW Alabama closer to the main
axis of strong temperature advection from the SW. Record high
temperatures are likely to fall at some locations on Friday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the advancing
front on Friday, but a significant capping inversion centered around
700-800 mb will tend to keep development at bay in our area until
late in the day. To our north, where better instability and
dynamical forcing will be present, thunderstorm development is
expected to occur earlier. Showers and storms are expected to then
develop gradually southward along and ahead of the cold front as it
moves across the area Friday evening. So, the best chances for
shower/thunderstorm activity will be in the north. CAPE values may
reach ~1000 J/KG while deep layer shear in the vicinity of ~50 kts
suggests some storm organization will be possible. Sounding profiles
suggest "thin" CAPE up through 700 mb, with most of the CAPE above
700 mb to the EL, and dry mid-level conditions with a relatively
moist boundary layer. The threat for damaging winds and large hail
will be present, but is marginal. Looping hodographs, marginally
high effective inflow helicity, and LCLs around 1 km suggest a
slight tornado threat during the evening. The threat for strong to
severe storms will subside as the cold front moves across the area
quickly during the overnight period.

Much cooler, but sunny conditions will return for Saturday as a
modified Canadian airmass moves into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Medium range guidance from the global models is in agreement that a
zonal flow regime in place over the southern CONUS at the beginning
of the extended forecast period will become more amplified on Sunday
as a 500-mb trough digs southeastward into WA/OR. A shortwave
disturbance crossing the southern Rockies late Sunday is forecast to
weaken and eject east-northeastward into the upper OH valley by late
Monday afternoon, as prevailing flow downstream from the western
CONUS trough backs to the southwest.

At the surface, the center of a Canadian surface high will be
located across the TN valley on Sunday morning providing ingredients
for strong radiational cooling. After morning lows in the u20s/l30s,
highs will rebound into the u50s/l60s as the ridge shifts eastward
off the Atlantic coast and southeasterly winds strengthen. Return
flow will continue to increase Sunday evening, as the southern
Rockies disturbance ejects into the Plains and a weak surface low
forms near the Red River valley of OK/TX. Strong low-level
warm/moist advection east of the low will support widespread showers
from the southern Plains into the mid-South region early Monday
morning, with this regime expected to impact our forecast area
during the day. A few thunderstorms are possible based on amount of
elevated CAPE in forecast soundings, but overall instability should
be too meager to support a threat for severe convection even with
deep-layer shear around 60 knots.

The Red River valley surface low will likely begin to degenerate
into a baroclinic trough as the parent wave weakens and lifts
further into the OH valley late Monday. This boundary may serve as a
focal point for additional convection on Monday night/Tuesday, but
the influence of this feature should also dissipate with time as the
western CONUS longwave begins to push eastward and a new surface low
forms in the lee of the central Rockies. Due to uncertainties on
where the boundary may lie, we have maintained a chance POP both
periods. If clouds and precip are less than anticipated on Tuesday,
temperatures could easily be several degrees warmer than values in
the current forecast.

Convection will likely become fairly widespread to the north/west of
the region Tuesday night beneath an intense low-level jet attendant
to deepening cyclone ejecting through the Great Lakes and into
southern Ontario/Quebec. The trailing cold front is forecast to
cross our region Wednesday afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms
likely throughout the day. Although shear/instability parameters
appear favorable for severe storms both Tuesday night and Wednesday,
coverage/intensity of frontal convection will be dictated by
coverage of precipitation Tuesday night. A cooler/drier airmass of
north Pacific origin will be advected into the region in the wake of
this front and linger through the end of the forecast period.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Fog is expected to form during the overnight across the area,
courtesy of clear skies, light winds, and residual moisture from
recent rain. Although some of the fog could become locally dense -
especially late tonight, the lowest I went in the TAF was 3/4SM. VFR
weather should return shortly after daybreak Thu as an area of high
pressure moves east of the region, bringing a SE-S wind in the late
morning and afternoon.

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...RSB

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KABR 162331 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
531 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

The upper level ridge overhead this afternoon, stretching from NE
through north central Canada will shift eastward across MN by
daybreak Friday and continue east through the day. The 500mb trough
over the western states will be slowly taking its place by mid day
Friday, as a deep sfc low over Albert crosses into central
Manitoba. Still, dry weather will remain over our region.

Record highs for Friday range from the mid to upper 50s, with
most of them again from 1981. Sisseton is currently forecast to
tie the record of 58 degrees from 1981, while Aberdeen is forecast
to be 3 degrees shy of the 56 degree record from 1981. Continued
to use available MODIS false color satellite imagery, and snow
depth data to keep temperatures on the cool side where snow is the
deepest. As noted in the previous discussion, record sounding
data may also be reached over the next several days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

The weekend will be dominated by warmth and dry conditions. High
pressure departs to our south and east, and south/southeast low
level flow will develop in its wake, ahead of a lee low in the
northern Rockies. This is less than favorable mixing conditions,
however 850/925mb temperatures are 1 to 2 standard deviations above
climo, with a peak temperature of +10 to +14C at 850mb Sunday. End
result is that we may see widespread upper 50s/low 60s Sunday.
Sunday night, the surface gradient continues to increase with about
10mb across the state, not to mention increasing cloud cover and
1/2km winds of 30-40kts. This will keep temperatures from falling
very much overnight, with the potential for lows only in the 40s.

Monday, with the warm mild level temperatures overhead initially,
and a surface front passing through the area, mixing will again warm
us up into the 50s/60s, and blended guidance is just a few
degrees off records. Consensus for the surface low track is
shifting towards western South Dakota into northeast North Dakota.
The track favors more showery precipitation and with a few
hundred J/KG MUCAPE will keep in mention of thunder.

Cold advection overnight will actually keep us mixed and mild Monday
night, and by Tuesday we are back into a warm advection regime with
decent mixing as a low tracks across northern North Dakota.
850/925mb temperatures remain 1 to 2 standard deviations above climo
through the end of the forecast timeframe.

The previous shift has also brought to our attention a system
just outside the public forecast range. Models continue to show
good consensus for this far out, however there are always a lot of
changes between now and the 180+ hour timeframe, so will only
just mention the potential for a storm to track across the region
late next week.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Other than the potential for some patchy MVFR vsbys in fog at KATY
late tonight into early Friday morning, VFR conditions will
prevail across the area tonight through the day Friday. Look for
the possibility of some low level wind shear around the 2K foot
level over the western CWA on Friday morning, affecting KPIR and
KMBG.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Parkin

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KABR 162059
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
259 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Record highs for Friday range from the mid 50s to mid 50s, with most
of them are again from 1981. Sisseton is currently forecast to tie
the record of 58 degrees from 1981, while Aberdeen is forecast to be
3 degrees shy of the 56 degree record from 1981. Continued to use
available MODIS false color satellite imagery, and snow depth
data to keep temperatures on the cool side where snow is the
deepest. As noted in the previous discussion, record sounding data
may also be reached over the next several days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Monday, with the warm mild level temperatures overhead initially,
and a surface front passing through the area, mixing will again warm
us up into the 50s/60s - and blended guidance is just a few degrees
off records. Consensus for the surface low track is shifting towards
western South Dakota into northeast North Dakota. The track favors
more showery precipitation and with a few hundred j/kg MUCAPE will
keep in mention of thunder.

The previous shift has also brought to our attention to a system
just outside the public forecast range. Models continue to show good
consensus for this far out, however there are always a lot of
changes between now and the 180+ hour timeframe so will only just
mention the potential for a storm to track across the region late
next week.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR ceilings and vis are expected to remain through the period for
all locations but ATY. ATY has MVFR fog this morning, and could
get another bout tomorrow morning.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...KF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KABR 131136 CCA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
536 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Will start out this morning with a persistent 500mb trough
overhead, that will slide to our east Tuesday morning. The 500mb
cut off low just south of AZ will work across northern TX Tuesday
morning, and merge with the eastern Canadian/U.S. trough Tuesday
afternoon and evening. This will allow the ridge currently across
the Pacific Northwest up through much of western Canada to
propagate eastward across WY/MT by the end of the day Wednesday.

At the sfc, high pressure remained over KS, with the ridge that was
over our area at 00Z having shifted to WI. This is thanks to the low
over central Canada sliding a trough across the Northern Plains. The
trough will be set up overhead at 12Z, before shifting to our
eastern counties and across western MN by 12Z. Other than some high
clouds rolling across the region from the northwest, and a little
uptick in the winds behind the sfc trough, we will continue to
experience dry and mild conditions. The strongest winds will be
downslope areas favored by west-northwest winds from Roscoe through
Leola and Spring Creek Colony, and east of the Prairie Coteau
from Veblen through the Twin Brooks area. Even with the wind
direction, do not see any cold air sliding in anytime soon. 850mb
temps will rebound to 3-4C this afternoon. Highlighted areas west
and east of the Prairie Coteau, which seem to have been higher
than originally anticipated over the last couple of days, and
bumped them up a bit. These are also areas of limited to no snow
left, which shows up well on the MODIS imagery from yesterday.
Slightly cooler air does slide in for Tuesday, behind the exiting
sfc-500mb low over eastern Lake Superior, knocking afternoon
temperatures down 3-5F across the board. The coolest air. 850mb
temps of -5 to -9C will be over the eastern half of the forecast
area. Expect a sfc ridge to build overhead Tuesday night. Then
warm southerly winds will return for Wednesday, as the ridge exits
across MN. Highs will be back in the 40s to low 50s for most.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

The 00Z deterministic GFS/ECMWF solutions were generating qpf over
this cwa Sunday night (ECMWF), Feb 19, and Monday (GFS), Feb 20, in
deep southerly flow. However, the GFS ensemble output was much less
with qpf at the day 7-8 timeframe. "Likely" pops in Superblend for
that forecast period may be a little overdone at this point. Until
then, the extended is dry while an upper level ridge migrates from
the western conus to the central conus, and upper level longwave
troffing develops across the western conus.

When the period opens, Wednesday night, low level waa is in full
swing with steadily warming temperatures expected through the first
half of the weekend. If clouds and precipitation potential do start
to show up at the end of the extended forecast later today or
tomorrow, the impact to temperatures will likely be some cooling. At
this point, though, p-type would probably be rain from any system
working northward through the region within a much above normal
temperature regime like the one being forecast for later this week.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all locations through today and
tonight.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Dorn

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KABR 130918
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Will start out this morning will at persistent 500mb trough
overhead, that will slide to our east Tuesday morning. The 500mb cut
off low just south of AZ will work across northern TX Tuesday
morning, and merge with the eastern Canadian/U.S. trough Tuesday
afternoon and evening. This will allow the ridge currently across the
Pacific Northwest up through much of western Canada to propagate
eastward across WY/MT by the end of the day Wednesday.

At the sfc, high pressure remained over KS, with the ridge that was
over our area at 00Z having shifted to WI. This is thanks to the low
over central Canada sliding a trough across the Northern Plains. The
trough will be set up overhead at 12Z, before shifting to our
eastern counties and across western MN by 12Z. Other than some high
clouds rolling across the region from the northwest, and a little
uptick in the winds behind the sfc trough, we will continue to
experience dry and mild conditions. The strongest winds will be
downslope areas favored by west-northwest winds from Roscoe through
Leona and Spring Creek Colony, and east of the Prairie Coteau from
Veblen through the Twin Brooks area. Even with the wind direction,
do not see any cold air sliding in anytime soon. 850mb temps will
rebound to 3-4C this afternoon. Highlighted areas west and east of
the Prairie Coteau, which seem to have been higher than originally
anticipated over the last couple of days, and bumped them up a bit.
These are also areas of limited to no snow left, which shows up well
on the MODIS imagery from yesterday. Slightly cooler air does slide
in for Tuesday, behind the exiting sfc-500mb low over eastern Lake
Superior, knocking afternoon temperatures down 3-5F across the
board. The coolest air. 850mb temps of -5 to -9C will be over the
eastern half of the forecast area. Expect a sfc ridge to build
overhead Tuesday night. Then warm southerly winds will return for
Wednesday, as the ridge exits across MN. Highs will be back in the
40s to low 50s for most.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all locations through tonight and
Monday.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Mohr

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KOAX 090904
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
304 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017

Water vapor imagery this morning was showing a well amplified
upstream ridge situated over the western CONUS with hefty moisture
spilling over the top through the Pacific northwest. At the
surface...strong high pressure was in control across the central
Plains.

Initial concern is temperatures followed by possible precipitation
this weekend.

A quick glance at LSRs along with yesterday afternoon MODIS false
color imagery indicated that the vast majority of the CWA north of
the I-80 corridor had snow cover with amounts generally from 2-5"
inches reported.

For today...aforementioned Pacific moisture riding down the front
end the ridge will likely keep skies mostly cloudy. MET/MAV are
pretty similar giving highs around 30 within areas of snow
cover...with mid 30s to the south which seems reasonable for now. On
Friday...max temps are a bit more problematic. Increasing thkns
build in from the west with +15C 850mb temps/warm air advection
invading the central Plains. The bottom line is there will likely be
a large spread across the CWA with low 50s northeast and mid 60s
southwest. On Saturday....a weak cold front will bring highs down a
bit with mid 40s north and low 50s south.

Precipitation chances return Saturday night with the approach of
a stout Pacific northwest vort max. It appears that ample forcing
via 700-500mb QG frontogenesis will be on hand...but soundings
suggest moisture availability to be somewhat in question. Latest
NAM12/GFS20/SREF all suggest changes are slim at best. Meanwhile
both the CMC/ECM lay solid swath of QPF over the CWA. At any
rate...appears likely that the main precipitation type will be
liquid with a small mix of rain/snow here and there.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017

As for the extended periods...another anomalous upper ridge building
in will lead to dry conditions next week with above normal highs
generally in the mid 40s.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2017

VFR conditions through the TAF period with variable amounts of
higher clouds FL100-150. Light northwest winds 10kts or less will
become variable Thursday morning, however are forecast to increase
from the southeast 10 to 20kts Thursday afternoon. LLWS increases
at all three sites after 00Z Thursday night.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Zapotocny

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 091622 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1022 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

.UPDATE...

Snow is still expected to lift through the forecast area southwest
to northeast this afternoon into the evening. Forecast timing
seems to be in line with current trends. Will see a trace to half
an inch by evening...with additional light accumulations through
the evening and into tonight.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

Snow will arrive in the southwest this afternoon...lifting
northeast through late afternoon into the evening. Some light
precipitation will then linger tonight...with better development
again late tonight into Tuesday. Precip should remain mainly snow
through much of the night, but milder air will move in later
tonight into Tue morning. Still think there could be a brief mix
with or changeover to sleet and freezing rain before the precip
becomes all rain.

Total snow is forecast to range from around a trace far southwest
forecast area...to around 3 inches in the far northeast.

Colder temps will return later Tuesday and Tuesday night, though
most of the precip will have ended by then.

Lower ceilings and visibilities are likely at times with the
precipitation through Tuesday.

.MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect tonight into Tuesday night. Low
pressure will develop in the high plains later today, and move east
northeast into northern Wisconsin and Lake Superior on Tuesday. A
tight pressure gradient with the low will result in gusty south
winds redeveloping later today and continuing through tonight.

An extended period of gusty winds is then expected through Tuesday
night, as the low deepens as it moves northeast into southern Canada
Tuesday night. Building waves are expected tonight into Tuesday
toward the open waters, in ice free areas.

High resolution MODIS visible imagery continue to show ice regrowth
over near shore waters from around North Point Lighthouse south to
Winthrop Harbor and beyond. This may get broken up a bit with the
increasing winds and waves tonight into Tuesday night.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 615 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017/

UPDATE...Steady light snow has moved east of southeast Wisconsin
and ended with only a few lingering flurries.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Borderline low level wind shear scenario
tonight but did not include in 12z TAF issuance due to increasing
surface winds.

MARINE...Issued new Small Craft Advisory to cover expected gusty
south winds that will develop late this afternoon and tonight as
low pressure strengthens in the High Plains. A few gusts likely to
reach 30 knots. The gusty winds will linger into Tuesday night as
the low pressure area strengthens and moves across the western
Great Lakes into Canada.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017/

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence - Medium.

Steady light snow over eastern CWA will continue to diminish through
12z as 700mb warm air advection shifts off to the east. Seeing some
lighter returns upstream around La Crosse closer to weak sfc trof so
may be some flurries lingering into the early morning around the
area. Some areas received a couple tenths of an inch of snow
overnight so roadways may be slippery early this morning, especially
toward Fond du Lac, West Bend and Sheboygan.

Weak high pressure will result in generally quiet conditions for a
brief time this morning. However another batch of -sn should spread
into southern WI this aftn as another surge of low to mid level warm
air advection spreads rapidly across the area. Short term guidance
in good agreement on this light snow producing less than an inch of
snow accumulation by 00z with the heavier amounts in south central
WI. This warm air advection pivots northeast into central WI during
the evening with a lull in the light snow across the south. However
expect areas of precip to redevelop later tonight as renewed surge
of low level warm air and moisture advection spreads into srn WI
along with enhanced synoptic lift from left exit region of upper
jet. Hence wl continue likely wording for later tonight. Warm air
push will result in a wintery mix with a potential for a period of
-zr later tngt into Tue mrng. Concerned that pavement temps wl lag
several hours behind 2M temps in warming above freezing since the
arctic cold has persisted over the area for days now. ECMWF and GFS
warm sfc temps rapidly late tngt and early Tue while NAM holds onto
colder temps around freezing until 14-15z. May eventually need a
Winter Weather Advisory to address potential for mix and slippery
travel during the Tue mrng commute but too much uncertainty
regarding sfc temps to issue at this time. Will however post SPS to
add emphasis to concern for Tuesday.

TUESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

A low amplitude impulse will progress through the northern Plains
Tuesday morning before emerging in the upper Great Lakes region
Tuesday night. The upper level wave will escort a deepening surface
low as it tracks northeast through the region. Southern Wisconsin
will be within the warm sector on Tuesday, with temperatures
already near or above freezing by mid morning. This should limit
any mixed precipitation to our northern areas at this time, with
all rain expected by afternoon within the warm advection regime.
Precipitation amounts should be on the light side through the
afternoon, with less than one quarter inch expected.

The associated cold front should sweep through southern Wisconsin by
mid to late afternoon, bringing an end to the precipitation by
evening. We could see a brief period of mixed precipitation or
snow through early evening as temperatures fall, but impacts
should be minimal given the limited QPF.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

Models project the upper jet core to begin lifting north of the area
Wednesday morning, with a weak impulse passing through during the
early afternoon. It appears that any precipitation associated
with this wave should remain north of our forecast area.

Upper troughing will advance from the northern Rockies on Wednesday
and into the upper Mississippi valley on Thursday. Southern stream
energy will eject northeast from the central Plains, before phasing
with the larger scale wave over the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday.
This will initiate an elongated surface wave from the Great Plains
through the mid Mississippi valley on Wednesday, with a tendency for
northeastward expansion into the northern Ohio valley on Thursday.

As the surface wave develops to our south, light precipitation is
expected to begin Wednesday evening and continue into Thursday.
There is some concern for freezing rain with this system,
particularly in our southeast. Given the consensus surface low
track and timing (which could change), there should be sufficient
warm advection for warm layer temperatures to climb to around +3
to +5 Celsius for a time Thursday night in the southeast. This
suggests a relatively deep warm layer, capable of fully melting
any frozen precipitation before it's passed along to a subfreezing
surface layer. GFS and NAM forecast soundings for Kenosha also
illustrate a freezing rain profile during this time.

Forecast QPF is on the light side, with most areas receiving less
than one quarter of an inch of liquid. This would limit ice
accretion to under one tenth of an inch, given the current
consensus of models solution. Stay tuned, as this may be a period
to watch for potential travel impacts, depending upon how the
forecast evolves.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

Arctic high pressure arrives for Friday, with below normal
temperatures returning. The cold should be short lived, however,
with moderating temperatures into the weekend. Low pressure will
bring another chance for precipitation on Sunday and/or Monday.
Temperatures appear cold enough for this precipitation to be in
the form of snow.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Area of steady light snow will continue to diminish over eastern CWA
through 12Z as 700mb warm air advection slides off to the east.
Seeing some lighter returns upstream around La Crosse closer to
upstream weak surface trof so a few flurries may stick around into
the early morning. CIGS mostly VFR but may briefly drop to MVFR for
an hour or two this morning. Otherwise, areas of -sn will return
this afternoon and early evening with another period of lower cigs.
More widespread lower cigs are expected later tonight into Tuesday
along with a potential light wintery mix.

MARINE...

Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until 12z this morning.
Gusty south to southwest winds will continue next several hours
until pressure gradient further weakens as weak surface low
pressure trof approaches.

Period of lighter winds expected to be brief however as stronger low
pressure will develop in the high plains later today and move ENE
into WI on Tuesday. Pressure gradient between this system and east
coast high pressure will result in gusty south winds redeveloping
late today and continuing through tonight. An extended period of
gusty winds is then expected through Tuesday night as the low
deepens as it moves northeast from WI into srn Canada Tue ngt.

Will likely reissue a Small Craft Advisory later this morning once
ongoing advisory expires. Hi res MODIS visible imagery showing ice
regrowth over near shore waters from Milwaukee county south to
Winthrop Harbor and beyond due to lighter winds on Sunday and
continued cold temps.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM CST
Wednesday for LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...DDV/Wood
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...SPM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 090953
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
353 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence - Medium.

.TUESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

.MARINE...

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning for
LMZ643>646.

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...SPM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 082113
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
313 PM CST Sun Jan 8 2017

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence Is High.

A trough will approach the forecast area this evening, and then
move through overnight. Will probably see radar returns this
evening, as warm advection increases ahead of the trough, but
seeing quite a bit of dry air in the lower levels per models
soundings. Thus, not expecting much if any of this first round to
hit the ground.

Better chance for snow will come late evening into tonight, as
deeper saturation occurs. Not much liquid with this snow, but a
cold airmass and fairly deep dendrite growth zone should result in
pretty high snow to liquid ratios. New forecast has anywhere from
a trace in the southwest forecast area, to around a half an inch
in the north.

Temps will likely warm slightly this evening ahead of the trough,
then hold fairly steady overnight as the system moves through.

It will be dry Monday morning between systems, with more snow
moving in during the afternoon. Should see some light
accumulations by evening, especially in the northwest forecast
area.

High temps tomorrow are finally expected to be back around
normal.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are trying to focus the best QPF across central Wisconsin
Monday evening, with a push of drier air from the south trying to
dry things out across southwestern portions of the area. Focused
warm air advection pushes into the area during this time,
lingering into Tuesday morning before the cold front moves east
through the area.

Models taking surface low track from southern Minnesota to the
western Upper Peninsula of Michigan later Monday night into
Tuesday morning, then pushing northeast of there Tuesday
afternoon. There is not much in the way of frontogenesis response
with this system. 500 mb shortwave trough does cross east through
area later on Tuesday. However, strong cold air advection kicks in
behind the cold frontal passage, drying things out.

Forecast soundings are generally showing light snow for most of
Monday night, with a period of a mix of light snow, light sleet,
light freezing rain and light rain south to north late Monday
night into middle morning Tuesday. All light rain is then expected
for the rest of Tuesday morning, with PoPs trending downward
quickly in the afternoon with the drier air working in. NAM keeps
things cold into Tuesday, though is an outlier and sided with the
warmer look of the other models.

Continued likely PoPs for Monday evening in the north, then for
most of the area later Monday night into Tuesday morning. May need
higher PoPs if models remain consistent. Snowfall amounts should
range from under an inch in the south, to around 1 inch in Madison
and Milwaukee, to 2 to 3 inches toward Fond du lac and Sheboygan.
May need a winter weather headline eventually for parts of the
area for Monday night into Tuesday morning, as it will affect the
Tuesday morning commute.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are showing a generally quiet period for Tuesday night,
with some differences for Wednesday. Another cold front should
slide southeast through the area later Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. The Canadian model is the only one with QPF
with the front, but kept the dry forecast, following the other
models.

Main issue will be another round of precipitation for Wednesday
night into Thursday. The GFS and Canadian models are bringing low
pressure northeast across northeast Illinois into lower Michigan.
Decent low level frontogenesis response occurs across the area on
the GFS. Area forecast soundings from the GFS are showing
potential for a freezing rain event for the area, with some light
snow mixing in across the north Wednesday evening. The ECMWF is
quicker with the movement of the low and associated upward
vertical motion.

For now, left higher PoPs in there for Wednesday night, tapering
off on Thursday. Left precipitation types as light snow for
collaboration purposes at this time, but may have to add in
freezing rain in later forecasts. This would impact the Thursday
morning commute. High pressure would then bring another shot of
Arctic air for Friday into the weekend.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions will prevail into this evening, as high pressure
exits and a trough of low pressure approaches. Most places will
probably see a little snow late this evening and into tonight, as
the trough moves through. Accumulations are expected to range from
a dusting to a half inch or so. This will be a very dry snow, with
snow to liquid ratios of at least 20:1. Will probably see some
lower ceilings and visibilities as the snow moves through.

Dry weather is then expected Monday morning, as there will be a
brief break between systems. Snow will then move back in during
the afternoon, with more light accumulations likely into the
evening and overnight.

It still looks like a period of low level wind shear is possible
this evening into tonight, while the low level jet moves through
ahead of the trough.

.MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect this evening and overnight,
as south to southwest winds become gusty ahead of an approaching
trough.

Winds will likely return to advisory levels Monday night into
Tuesday night, as low pressure passes through the region.

New MODIS image shows a decent amount of ice south of Milwaukee,
so expect limited waves in these areas until there is a change in
the ice.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
for LMZ643>646.

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...Wood

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KLOT 270948
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
348 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...
347 AM CST

Today through Wednesday night...

Relatively tranquil period of late December weather is expected
into mid-week, as surface high pressure spreads across the Ohio
Valley into Wednesday. Main weather features today will be a
gradually diminishing but continued blustery west wind gusting
20-25 mph, closer to, but still slightly above average
temperatures, and a period or two of cloud cover brushing the
northern tier or two of Illinois counties through mid-day or early
afternoon. Despite modest but persistent low level cold advection,
model 925-950 mb thermal fields support temperatures generally in
the 35-40 degree range this afternoon, especially across the
southern 2/3 of the forecast area where MODIS-Terra satellite
imagery from yesterday afternoon shows no remaining snow cover.
Coolest temps, at or a little above freezing, are expected across
the northern tier of IL counties where some snow cover still
exists. Guidance in fairly decent agreement with temps, though
favored slightly cooler MET numbers over snow cover in north
central IL, and slightly warmer MAV farther south.

While high pressure passes largely south of the area tonight,
weaker ridging will extend north across the cwa beneath a region
of 70-80 meter 500 mb height rises which develop in the wake of a
mid-level short wave trough which passes across the region late in
the day. Winds will finally weaken substantially this evening as
the gradient weakens with the approach of the surface ridge. Temps
should fall off fairly quickly through the 20's this evening with
light winds and clear skies especially over those
north/northwesternsnow covered locations.

Looking to the west, a strong upper jet streak propagates across
the Pacific Northwest and central Rockies tonight into Wednesday,
leading to amplification of an upper trough across the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region through Wednesday night. Strong H5
height falls, on the order of 150+ meters, develops across the
region by Wednesday night in association with the deepening trough
and a 140 knot upper level jet streak which translates through the
base of the amplifying trough into the Ohio Valley overnight. Low
level winds back to the south and increase late tonight and
Wednesday, with warm advection and resulting isentropic ascent
eventually leading to development of a mid-level overcast by late
Wednesday afternoon. Low levels remain dry however, with large
temperature/dew point spreads persisting through Wednesday night
despite fairly vigorous forced ascent. Thus no precipitation is
expected prior to the associated surface trough/cold front which
moves through Wednesday night. South flow and warm advection would
support temperatures in the 40's Wednesday per low-level model
thermal fields. MAV/MET numbers pretty close up north, but prefer
the slightly warmer MET guidance across much of the central and
southern cwa where mid-upper 40's appear reasonable given lack of
snow cover. Quick tightening of the surface pressure gradient
should make for a fairly windy day however, with gusts around 30
mph from the south keeping wind chills in the 30's. The warm-up is
fairly brief, as the surface trough/cold front pushes through
Wednesday night with a return to colder west flow.

Ratzer

.LONG TERM...
204 PM CST

Tuesday night through Monday...

Not looking for a very active week weather-wise. Robust clipper
tracking well to our north should supply a quick shot of robust
warm air advection Wednesday. NAM continues to think there's snow
on the ground and is holding temps back as a result. Have
continued to trend highs warmer than the NAM tainted blended model
guidance and closer in line with the MAV which has highs well into
the 40s.

Cold front moves through with little fan fare Wednesday night with
breezy and much cooler conditions Thursday. Forecast soundings
suggest the potency of the CAA will be greater aloft resulting in
steepening lapse rates which still look like they could result in
flurries and perhaps some scattered snow showers Thursday
afternoon. Not looking like a measurable precip event at this
time.

Another clipper fast on the heels of the first will attempt to
moderate temps late Friday into early Saturday before another cold
front moves through likely cooling temps off a bit.

Later in the weekend into early next week forecast confidence is
MUCH below average. ECMWF and GFS both dig a vigorous shortwave
south down the California coast eventually closing off this
mid/upper level low, before ejecting the system eastward. This is
where the spread in solutions grow exponentially, with some models
(12z operational GFS) phasing this system with northern stream and
spinning up a powerful cyclone, while other guidance tracks a
weakening southern stream wave across the southern states missing
us altogether. Individual ensemble members run the gamut from
unseasonable warmth to potential snow storm by early next week, in
fact the ECMWF ensembles have high temps ranging from mid 50s
(warmest member) to barely 10 above (coldest member) by next
Tuesday. Needless to say, no big changes made to the blended
guidance in that time range except to lower pops from likelys
Monday given this uncertainty.

Izzi

.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs...

Easing but still gusty westerly winds along with a period of
MVFR clouds into early Tuesday morning are the two items of
interest in the aviation forecast.

Gusty westerly winds have started to slowly ease, though still
cannot rule out sporadic gusts to 30 kt through 09Z. The overall
cyclonic, cold advection weather pattern will keep regular gusts
through Tuesday morning, with direction between 250 and 280
degrees. The gust magnitude will ease gradually through Tuesday
afternoon and then more quickly at sundown.

Scattered to broken cold advection stratocumulus clouds will
move over the TAF sites through Tuesday morning. Confidence in
cloud bases remaining between 2000 and 3500 ft is high.

MTF

.MARINE...
205 AM CST

Low pressure continues to shift eastward into western Quebec
early this morning. Westerly winds continue to be in the 30 to 35
KT over the open waters of Lake Michigan as of this writing, with
slightly lighter flow of 25 to 30 KT in the Illinois and Indiana
near shore waters. The current gale headline is set to end at 3 AM
CST this morning. While the winds are expected to ease below gale
force this morning, a couple of lingering Gales may extend an hour
or two beyond this time, especially over Lake Michigan. I don't
anticipate needing to extend the warning end time, but I will make
a last minute decision on this prior to the 3 AM GLF issuance.
Otherwise, the gale warning will be transitioned to a small craft
advisory for today, especially for the Indiana waters where high
waves will linger through the day.

A period of lighter winds are expected tonight as a surface ridge
of high pressure shifts over the region. The winds will back to a
southerly direction by early Wednesday morning, then increase out
of the south Wednesday. These strengthening southerly winds on
Wednesday will be driven by a clipper system shifting eastward
into western Ontario by late Wednesday afternoon. Pressure falls
ahead of this low over the Upper Great Lakes will likely help
drive a period of 30 to perhaps 35 KT southerly winds over the
lake. While some low end gales are possible during the day, it
appears they will be somewhat short lived. Because of this, no
gale headline is planned at this time, but I will mention the
potential of gale force gusts in the GLF.

This same clipper system will push a cold front over Lake Michigan
Wednesday night, and this will set up another period of strong
west-northwesterly winds over the lake for Thursday and Thursday
night. It appears probable that 35 to 40 KT west-northwesterly
gales will develop during the day Thursday before abating Thursday
night. The strongest winds are expected over the southern half of
the lake (including the Illinois and Indiana near shore waters). A
gale headline will likely need to be issued for this period as we
get closer.

An active weather pattern is expected to continue this weekend and
into next week, with another clipper system forecast to shift
towards the western Lakes region by Saturday. This could result in
another period of southerly winds followed by a quick return to
northwesterly winds Saturday night. Following this, yet another
storm system may develop and shift northward into the lower Great
Lakes region by early next week. Depending on the strengthen, and
the track of this potential storm system, this could yet again
produce strong winds over the lake.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 6 AM Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 4 PM
Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM Tuesday.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 232108
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
308 PM CST Fri Dec 23 2016

TONIGHT... Forecast confidence is medium.

An area of 600-700mb frontogenesis, 850-700mb warm air advection,
and deep lift due to the 300mb jet circulation is currently along a
line from northeast Iowa to Green Bay and is associated with pockets
of moderate snow. This axis of heavier precip is in the area
highlighted by the winter wx advisory with 2 to 3 inches expected in
the MKX area, more toward central WI.

The radar returns are showing a more broken/spotty scenario than
what I had expected so far in this event. It is taking a long time
to saturate from the top down over southern WI, even though periods
of snow has made it to the ground here and there.

There should still be a period of steadier snow sliding across
southern WI during the late afternoon/evening, coincident with the
axis of 700mb frontogenesis, but lagging behind the 600mb
frontogenesis affecting more of central WI. This is the feature to
watch as it could produce moderate snowfall rates during the
afternoon/evening commute and peak travel time for this holiday
weekend.

No change to the advisory area or time. There is still the potential
for a quick burst of snow between 5 and 8 pm for southeast WI. Up to
an inch of snow would be possible with this feature.

SATURDAY...Forecast confidence is high.

Low clouds and potentially light fog will linger through Saturday
morning. The exception is near Lake Michigan where extra mixing
could allow for drier air from the upper levels to clear out the
clouds for a time. Low level moisture is expected to get trapped
below an inversion, so the clouds should linger all day at inland
areas. This will keep temperatures in the lower 30s, warming to just
above freezing during the afternoon.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...Forecast confidence is
high.

Nothing has really changed for this period. The powerful low
pressure system will still track well northwest of the area,
across northern Minnesota. This puts us well into the warm sector,
and rain. The initial moisture surge well out ahead of the low
could bring a period of freezing drizzle later Saturday night and
Sunday morning. This will be pretty light with impact on the
minimal side. We then warm up enough to keep it all rain until the
associated trough/cold front sweeps late Sunday night/Monday
morning. Fog is still a concern with the mild and moist airmass
flowing in across the existing snowpack for Saturday night into
Sunday, but the brisk winds will limit how dense it gets. There
is little or no elevated CAPE on the soundings, so decided to pull
the mention of thunder.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

High pressure should keep this period quiet. Temperatures will
fall in the wake of the departing low...but not too cold. Highs on
Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 20s, rising back
into the lower 30s on Wednesday. With the warmer temperatures on
Wednesday the European model does bring a surge of moisture and a
small chance of light snow to the area during the afternoon.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

The European model is a bit snowier looking than the GFS and the
Canadian for Wednesday night into early Thursday. They all have a
trough swinging through the Great Lakes, but the EC is a bit
deeper, more west and quicker with the returning moisture and
clips Wisconsin with snow before pushing quickly off to the east.
The GFS and Canadian keep the bulk of the snow east of Wisconsin
during the period. Given the uncertainty, there are small chances
of light snow during this period, but overall it looks pretty
quiet.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Moderate snow is ongoing over central WI, with the main area setting
up north and west of Madison. The back edge of the precip is over
eastern Iowa and this will translate east across southern WI with
stronger 700mb frontogenesis. Expect a period of steadier snow
between 4 and 7 pm in south central WI and 5 to 8 pm in southeast WI.
Visibilities should be down to less than a mile and a quick
additional inch of wet snow is possible. Snow will taper off from
west to east by midnight.

Expect cigs and vsbys to lower to IFR or lower during any steady,
moderate snow late this aftn and early evening. It looks like
ceilings are going to remain low overnight into Saturday morning due
to light winds and lingering low level moisture. Patchy fog is
likely which could be IFR visibility, but confidence is low on
coverage.

.MARINE...

Increasing south to southeast winds ahead of an approaching low
pressure trof will get close to Small Craft Advisory levels later
this evening. However expecting most gusts to remain at or below
22kts for now. Mariners can expect light snow...possibly mixed with
rain...to spread into the area during the afternoon, ending later
tonight. Recent MODIS lake surface temperature image continues to
show temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 30s. Hi res vsbl image
from Thursday not showing much ice buildup along the shore.

The next storm system to pass far to the northwest of the area on
Sunday will bring strong winds from Sunday afternoon through Monday
night. Gale force southwest then west gusts are possible on Monday.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ046-
056-057-062-063-067-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until midnight CST tonight for WIZ047-
051-052-058-059-064.

LM...None.
&&

TONIGHT/Saturday AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday...Davis

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 231643 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1043 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016

.UPDATE...

An area of 600-700mb frontogenesis, 850-700mb warm air advection,
and deep lift due to the 300mb jet circulation is currently over
central/northeast Iowa and associated with moderate snow. This
forcing will quickly spread n-ne through WI from late this morning
through early afternoon. The axis of heavier precip is still on
target for bisecting the state sw-ne, highlighted by the winter wx
advisory.

The latest mesoscale models are showing the area of high
reflectivity currently over central IA sliding across southern WI
during the late afternoon/evening, coincident with the axis of 700mb
frontogenesis, but lagging behind the 600mb frontogenesis affecting
more of central WI. This is the feature to watch as it could produce
high snowfall rates during the afternoon/evening commute and peak
travel time for this holiday weekend.

No change to the advisory area. We will highlight the potential for
a quick burst of snow between 5 and 8 pm for southeast WI.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

Snow will spread into southern WI from west to east late this
morning and likely will not start accumulating in MKE and the
lakeshore areas until 2 or 3 pm. The radar is showing returns over
the south half of WI this morning, but this is not reaching the
ground yet.

Moderate snow is expected toward central WI, possibly including
Madison, but likely north and west of there. This will be from mid
afternoon through early evening.

A quick burst of snow is now expected across southern WI near the IL
border between 2 and 7 pm and southeast WI between 5 and 8 pm
including MKE. Expect visibilities down to less than a mile and a
quick additional inch of wet snow.

Expect cigs and vsbys to lower to IFR and lower for a time most
areas this aftn and early evening before lifting. Possible some snow
grains or pellets mixed with snow at times.

.MARINE...

Increasing south to southeast winds ahead of an approaching low
pressure trof will get close to Small Craft Advisory levels later
today into tonight. However expecting most gusts to remain at or
below 22kts for now. Mariners should expect light snow...possibly
mixed with rain...to spread into the area during the afternoon,
ending later tonight. Recent MODIS lake surface temperature image
continues to show temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 30s. Hi
res vsbl image from Thursday not showing much ice buildup along the
shore.

The next storm system to pass far to the northwest of the area on
Sunday will bring strong winds from Sunday afternoon through Monday
night. Gale force southwest then west winds are possible on Monday.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium To High.

Will delay onset of mostly light snow spreading across southern
WI a few hours until late morning and afternoon. Short term
guidance remains in good agreement blending of lift from upstream
short wave trof and warm air advection, resulting in light snow
developing over srn WI later this morning and afternoon.

Despite initially warm, above freezing air aloft, elevated
maximum wet bulb expected to remain below freezing as
precipitation spreads in. Hence low levels will cool as they
moisten resulting in mostly snow event, however there could be
some snow grains or pellets mixed in at times. Even those areas
that will likely see surface temperatures rise into the mid 30s
should experience mostly -sn.

Still looking at snowfall amounts mostly in the 1 to 3 inch range,
with the heaviest amounts across the northwest CWA. Snow ratios
will be anywhere from 8 to 12 to 1, with QPF values in the 0.20 to
0.35 inch range. Will delay start times of Winter Weather Advisory
by several hours due to slower arrival. Also, will leave area from
Rock County northeast to Waukesha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee and rest of
southeast WI counties out of advisory for now, as amounts in these
areas should be mostly less than 2 inches.

Also, slightly warmer temperatures may allow a bit more melting
of the snow as it falls. Day crew will need to watch these areas
for high snowfall rates occuring during the afternoon drive time,
as more people likely to be traveling for the long holiday
weekend.

Lift from passing short wave exits southern WI fairly rapidly
during the evening. Loss of ice crystals falling into cloud
bearing layer lags lift by several hours so held off on
introducing any light freezing rain or drizzle toward the end of
the event.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Weak high pressure moving east across the area should bring a
brief period of quiet weather for Saturday. Lingering low level
moisture below the inversion should keep at least some of the low
clouds around through the afternoon into Saturday night. Mild
temperatures are expected.

Models are now in pretty good agreement with the trends with the
strong low for Saturday night into Monday. They have the low
undergoing cyclogenesis on Christmas Day as it shifts north
northeast from the central high Plains into the eastern South
Dakota area. The low then shifts into northern Minnesota Sunday
night, before the low weakens and moves to north of Lake Superior
Monday.

Southern Wisconsin continues to see focused warm air advection
push through on Christmas Day, along with some low level
frontogenesis response fields. It may take some time for the air
column to saturate Saturday night into Christmas morning, with no
ice crystals. Thus, continued to mention light freezing drizzle in
the forecast. Temperatures will warm enough for all rain by the
afternoon hours. May see a very light glazing on roads Saturday
night into Christmas morning.

The strong cold front then shifts northeast through the area
Sunday night, as the low occludes. This should continue to bring
rain to the area, before ending by 12Z Monday. Kept slight chances
for thunder in the south just for Sunday night, when weak elevated
CAPE values exist on NAM/GFS forecast soundings. Also kept fog
mention for later Saturday night into Christmas Day, with mild
temperatures moving over the snow covered ground.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

Strong downward momentum mixing is expected in the dry slot of
this system for later Sunday night into Monday, with a tight
pressure gradient. The result should be a period of strong west
southwest winds, with sustained winds and gusts approaching Wind
Advisory levels. Area forecast soundings support these wind
speeds. Certainly a period to watch for possible wind headlines,
as this period draws closer.

A period of quiet weather looks to be in store for Monday into
Wednesday morning, as high pressure slides by to the south of the
region. Temperatures look to remain near seasonal normals, except
Tuesday with some cooler temperatures.

Models differ quite a bit with the system for Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday, so will lean on consensus blended PoPs for
temperatures and precipitation.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Still expect a period of snow to affect southern WI, spreading in
later this morning and diminishing from west to east during the
evening. Expect cigs and vsbys to lower to IFR and lower for a
time in most areas this aftn and early evening, before lifting.
Possible some snow grains or pellets mixed with snow at times.

MARINE...

Southwest winds will back to the south to southeast this morning,
ahead of approaching low pressure trof. Tightening pressure
gradient ahead of system will result in increasing winds that will
get close to Small Craft Advisory levels today into tonight.

However, expecting most gusts to remain at or below 22kts for
now. Not enough confidence at this point that warrants posting
Small Craft Advisory at this time.

Mariners should expect light snow to spread into the area during
the afternoon, ending later tonight. Recent MODIS lake surface
temperature image continues to show temperatures mostly in the mid
to upper 30s. Hi res vsbl image from Thursday not showing much ice
buildup along the shore.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ046-
056-057-062-063-067-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight CST
tonight for WIZ047-051-052-058-059-064.

LM...None.
&&

UPDATE...MRC/DAVIS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...Wood

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 230943
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
343 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium To High.

.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

Models differ quite a bit with the system for Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday, so will lean on consensus blended PoPs for
temperatures and precipitation.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

.MARINE...

However, expecting most gusts to remain at or below 22kts for
now. Not enough confidence at this point that warrants posting
Small Craft Advisory at this time.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this
evening for WIZ046-056-057-062-063-067-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight CST
tonight for WIZ047-051-052-058-059-064.

LM...None.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...Wood

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 210949
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
349 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Strong push of warm air advection and isentropic omega will sweep
across southern WI today. Impressive layer Q-vector convergence of
20 to 30 units passes through the area later this morning through
mid-afternoon. However, all short term guidance keep lower levels
fairly dry below 5K ft across southwest CWA. Deeper moisture
lowers to below 5K ft in the northeast for several hours.

Hence wl have chance pops in the NE tapering off to a chance for
flurries farther southwest. Thinking strong lift may be able to
shake some flurries from mid-clouds that may reach the surface.
Forecast soundings show low levels warm 1-3 degrees above freezing
through a deep layer. However maximum wet bulb temperature aloft
remains several degrees below freezing.

With plenty of ice introduction aloft, most of the precip that
does reach the ground should be light snow or flurries but could
be some snow grains or pellets mixed in.

Strong lift moves off to the east late in the afternoon. Cold air
advection in wake of passing low pressure system should bring a
period of widespread low clouds to the area overnight. A few
flurries could get shaken out from these low clouds as well, but
not enough confidence to include in forecast package at this
point.

.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are in pretty good agreement with high pressure passing by
to the south of the area Thursday into Thursday night. This should
bring quiet weather to the area during this time. Area forecast
soundings were trying to hold onto some of the low clouds from
tonight into this period. However, think push of drier air into
the area should scour out these low clouds Thursday. Temperatures
should be near seasonal normals during this period.

Main issue will be precipitation types for Friday into Friday
evening, as 500 mb trough slides east through the region. First
push of differential cyclonic vorticity advection occurs Friday
afternoon, with another Friday evening. Area also sees some
modest warm air advection. GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models are showing a
fairly broad area of QPF pushing through the region Friday
afternoon, with the NAM starting to come on board with this trend.
They try to hold onto some QPF Friday evening in the east, before
moving out by later Friday night. Thus, increased PoPs to likely
Friday afternoon, with chances Friday evening.

Leaned toward GFS/ECMWF/Canadian trends, with GFS forecast
soundings supporting mainly light snow for most of Friday, before
deep saturated air column loses mid to upper level moisture late
Friday into Friday evening. This would bring a transition to some
light freezing rain or freezing drizzle during this period. Any
snow accumulations would be around 1/2 inch at most Friday, with
a light glazing possible Friday evening. This period will need to
be watched for possible impacts for holiday travel.

.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Main issue this period will be precipitation types with the strong
low for Saturday night into Sunday night across the area. A brief
period of quiet weather Saturday is expected.

Then, GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models show a strong low undergoing
cyclogenesis as it shifts from the central high Plains to central
Nebraska Christmas Day. It then shifts northeast into central or
northern Minnesota Sunday night, before occluding as it shifts
across Lake Superior Monday. Thus, some model differences still
exist with timing and placement of this strong low.

Moist conveyor belt pushes northward into the area on Christmas
Day, with plenty of upward vertical motion from focuses warm air
advection and low level frontogenesis response. Good differential
cyclonic vorticity advection also occurs Sunday night. Cold front
then pushes through the area Sunday night or Monday morning.

GFS forecast soundings suggest a period of light freezing rain
would be possible Saturday night into Christmas morning, before
all rain develops by afternoon into Sunday night. Went with this
general trend in the forecast for now, until models can get into
better agreement with timing and placement of low and related
features. Temperatures should be relatively mild for Christmas Day
into Monday. This will be another period to watch for holiday
travel impacts.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Small chance of light snow later this morning and afternoon
across northern and eastern CWA, as strong lift associated with
passing low pressure and warm air surge. Lower levels remain
fairly dry so kept pops low. Few flurries may get shaken out of
mid-clouds farther south.

Expect mostly VFR conditions today, but brief period of -sn may
lower cigs/vsbys briefly to MVFR. Cold air advection behind
passing low pressure will bring a period of lower cigs across srn
WI tonight.

.MARINE...

Gusty west winds will continue to diminish early this morning as
pressure gradient further weakens. Tug located several miles
southeast of Sheboygan at 08Z reported sustained winds of 18kts
and Racine Reef still reporting wind gusts around 20kts.

These off-shore winds will back to the south to southeast ahead
of an approaching low pressure trof and restrengthen this
afternoon and evening. Recent MODIS imagery showing lake surface
temp remaining mostly in the mid-upper 30s. Hi-Res MODIS vsbl
imagery from Tuesday also showing small areas of ice build up east
of Racine and Wind Point. Expect this ice to thin and melt as
winds pick up from the south today along with warmer daytime
temps.

Low level winds will start to gust to around 25 knots by late
afternoon and continue through tonight as low pressure passes by
to the north. Hence will post new Small Craft Advisory, beginning
late afternoon, and carrying into Thu morning.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
Thursday for LMZ643>646.

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Wood

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KCHS 172319
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
619 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through late week. A dry cold front will
advance through the area on Saturday, followed by much cooler high
pressure through the middle of next week. Another cold front will
move through next Thursday.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Thermal falls are beginning to accelerate this evening within a
decoupled boundary layer and prime radiational conditions are
expected to prevail once again. Opted to nudge temperatures down
a few degrees across the coastal corridor and introduce some
stronger mesoscale influences over some of the normally colder
areas such as the Francis Marion National Forest to account for
the expected radiational setup. Also nudged temperatures over
Lake Moultrie up by several degrees given trends noted at
Pinopolis over the past several mornings.

Conditions favor another night of shallow ground fog across the
area with the better fog parameters looking to align across
mainly the central and southern zones. Smoke generated by
wildfires burning over the Southern Appalachians and the
foothills of North Carolina will not be as much of an issue
tonight, but it will linger in many places as the nocturnal
inversion strengthens. A late afternoon MODIS image clearly
showed a large smoke plume in place across much of South
Carolina and Georgia, but it was certainly not as thick as
previous days given the more northerly steering trajectory.

The South Carolina DHEC has issued a CODE ORANGE Air Quality
Alert for Charleston and Beaufort Counties. As a reminder, the
Georgia Department of Natural Resources' Air Protection Branch
does not issue Air Quality Alerts for Southeast Georgia.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The large ridge will persist through Friday night before
shifting off the coast as a potent shortwave approaches.
Unseasonably warm temps expected Friday through Saturday, then a
cold front will sweep through late Saturday afternoon with much
colder air resulting. No rain expected with the front though
breezy conditions expected Saturday. By Sunday, high temps
will only peak in the upper 50s to lower 60s despite a full day
of sun. A decent gradient will produce 10-15 mph winds on
Sunday.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold/dry high pressure will build across the region behind a cold
front departing well offshore Sunday night, bringing some of the
coldest temps so far this season. The main issue will be overnight
temps as cold air continues to advect into the region aloft while
sfc winds become light. At this time, Sunday night lows should
approach the low/mid 30s away from the coast with a few areas
potentially hitting the freezing mark well inland and north of I-16.
Given the setup, a freeze watch/warning could be needed. Cooler
conditions will persist into Monday with high temps peaking in the
upper 50s north to low/mid 60s south, but temps should be a few
degrees warmer Monday night, keeping temps slightly above freezing.
Temps will gradually recover into the middle of next week under a
zonal flow. In general, temps will peak into the mid/upper 60s
Tuesday, then upper 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday. Another dry cold
front should then approach the region on Thursday.

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR for much of the period, although shallow ground fog could
reduce vsbys to high-end MVFR at KSAV 09-12z. Smoke/haze will
continue to impact both terminals for Friday.

Extended Aviation Outlook...VFR conditions are expected at both
KCHS and KSAV terminals. Breezy Saturday/Sunday with a passing
cold front.

.MARINE...
Tonight: Tranquil conditions expected with high pressure in
control. Could see some patchy smoke which could reduce
visibilities below 5 NM at times.

Friday through Tuesday: High pressure will dominate the coastal
waters through early Saturday with sub-advisory winds/seas. A
dry cold front will then move through the waters Saturday
evening with strong cold air advection and 25-35 kt low-level
winds resulting in Small Craft Advisory conditions across most
if not all of the waters. Conditions improve Monday into Tuesday
with high pressure settling over the waters.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor salt water flooding is expected around the times of the
morning high tide Friday and potentially into Saturday until a
cold front sweeps offshore. Coastal Flood Advisories are likely.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EST tonight for SCZ040-
042>045-047-049-051-052.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EST Friday night for SCZ048-
050.
MARINE...None.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KJKL 141827
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
127 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 127 PM EST MON NOV 14 2016

Latest MODIS data showing some light smoke is being seen across
the area from Eastern TN wildfires. Given the overall better
concentration based on the MODIS was in the far south and
therefore added patchy smoke in the grids. The areas nearer the
fire will have more issue related to VIS, but LOZ has improved
this afternoon. This as BL winds are expected to shift to a more
SW to W direction, but there could be a slight delay given some
smoke further downstream in portions of central KY and Middle TN.
Overall more minor changes made to deal with the latest obs and
trends.

UPDATE Issued at 1040 AM EST MON NOV 14 2016

We are once again dealing with some smoke across the region. The
BL winds are out of the south and this is pulling some smoke from
the TN Valley into mainly southern portions of the CWA. Several
sites in the south are dropping to 2 to 7 miles VIS. These winds
are expected to shift more southwest to west, and this should help
to decrease the smoke through the afternoon. The overall forecast
grids are in good shape but did update with latest obs.

UPDATE Issued at 644 AM EST MON NOV 14 2016

Freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points into the
diurnal rise to account for the latest trends in observations.
Otherwise, the forecast remains track.

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM EST MON NOV 14 2016

Broad surface high pressure is sprawled from southeast Texas to
the Tennessee Valley. A weak cold front is slowly shifting east
and southeast from the Midwest down to the southern Plains
states. Aloft, troughiness is culminating across the central to
eastern CONUS. A couple of weaker upper level lows are moving
through the flow, one currently near the Missouri/Arkansas border
headed east, and the other moving more northeast into North
Carolina. Meanwhile, a more substantial short wave is moving
towards the Midwest.

Eastern Kentucky remains under the influence of the surface high
pressure nearby, with another cold night, thanks to a dry column
and nearly calm winds once again. Valleys will likely not bottom
out quite as much as yesterday morning, but a few places may get
close.

Moisture will gradually be on the increase through the short term,
as the weak cold front approaches from the west. Today will
feature another mostly sunny day, with light and variable winds
picking up out of the west at 5 to 10 mph during peak mixing. This
trajectory should help keep the smoke in check besides localities
in the vicinity of any ongoing fires. Highs will generally be in
the lower 60s once again.

Tonight will feature mostly clear skies, with an increase in
cloud cover towards dawn. While dew points will not be as dry as
Sunday, still think that some of the eastern valleys will likely
dip below 30 degrees once again, while ridges stay up at around 40
degrees.

Tuesday will be a partly to mostly cloudy day, with the cold front
disintegrating as it attempts to make its way across our parched
region. Highs will be a touch cooler in most places thanks to the
clouds, with around 60 degrees more common.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 AM EST MON NOV 14 2016

The extended period will start off dry and warm, with near normal
temperatures expected on Wednesday, and well above normal
temperatures on tap for Thursday and Friday. Highs on those three
days are forecast to top out in the low to mid 60s, upper 60s to
around 70, and the lower 70s respectively. Scattered clouds are also
expected to move across the area on Wednesday, as a trough of low
pressure aloft exits the area. After that, a large ridge of high
pressure is progged to move slowly eastward across the eastern
CONUS, bringing unseasonable warmth to eastern Kentucky to end the
week.

A significant pattern change is then expected over the upcoming
weekend. The models are in agreement that a large trough of low
pressure aloft will sweep across the Rocky Mountains and across
the Plains and eventually the Great Lakes, and Ohio and Tennessee
valley regions Friday night through the weekend. This system is
expected to pull a good deal of cold air out of southern Canada
and into the eastern CONUS as it makes its way east. There are two
schools of thought with regard to this system. First, the ECMWF
model brings a strong cold front across our region Friday night
and Saturday, with widespread rain showers accompanying the front.
This model has rain lingering across eastern Kentucky through
early Sunday morning. The GFS, on the other hand, is about 6
hours slower with its eastward moving front than the ECMWF, and
has its front weakening significantly as it moves our way. In
fact, the GFS has very little if any rain actually affecting
eastern Kentucky this weekend and essentially is moving a dry
front across our area. That being said, the precipitation forecast
for the weekend will feature the timing of the ECWMF model, with
scaled down precipitation probabilities based on the amount of
uncertainty between the two models. Will go with a 20 to 30
percent chance of rain for the period Friday night through early
Sunday morning.

The cold air associated with the weekend trough looks like it will
be the real story. Saturday and Sunday should see below normal
temperatures, particularly Sunday, after the trough axis has moved
east of our area and winds have shifted to the northwest. Highs
on Saturday are expected to only max out in the 50s, with max
values in the 40s possible for Sunday. Overnight lows from
Wednesday through Friday night are expected to bottom out in the
30s and 40s. Saturday night and Sunday could be substantially
colder, with lows each of those nights in the lower 30s and mid to
upper 20s.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON NOV 14 2016

VFR remains the story with high pressure in control across the
region. We do see some mid to high clouds across the far SE
otherwise most our seeing mostly sunny skies. The only other
issue is smoke coming in from wildfire across the TN Valley. This
as BL winds have been out of the south and southeast this morning.
The smoke is expected to subside through the afternoon, as the BL
winds shift to a more SW to W direction. The only TAF site that
has seen issues this morning is LOZ and they have since returned
to VFR. We could begin to see a lower cloud deck, with dry cold
front toward the end of the TAF period.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KMRX 132011
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
311 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight and Monday)...
For this afternoon and early evening...removed any slight chance
POPs for extreme eastern areas. Upper low and associated pcpn SE
of the area continue to move E.

Biggest immediate concern is with the air quality in the lower and
middle East Tennessee Valley. Observations in Knoxville and
Chattanooga coupled with latest visible satellite imagery and MODIS
high resolution polar orbiter all indicate a very widespread area
of smoke and reduced visibilities extending from SE Tennessee up
the valley into NE Tennessee...although no observations in that
area are yet reporting lowered visby. With flow in the lowest 3000
feet remaining fairly weak over the next 24 hours...do not expect
this reduction to visby and poor air quality to even have a chance
to lessen until at least late Monday afternoon when winds in this
layer may begin to shift more uniformly out of the west. In the
meantime, decoupling overnight will certainly trap smoke near the
surface and could exacerbate already poor air quality.

As the upper low southeast of the area continues to push further
east into Monday, high pressure settle in across the area. A rather
vigorous shortwave moving over Arkansas today will slide NE across
the area tomorrow bringing nothing more than some enhanced
cloudiness over the upper third of the area. Expect near normal
temperatures with afternoon RH values dropping again toward 30
percent...further reinforcing the afternoon fire weather hazard
across the area.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Sunday)...
Unfortunately, much of the long term period will be dry even as a
long wave trough hangs around across the Eastern U.S. through mid
week. There just isn't enough moisture for the production of any
widespread showers when a weak cool front builds southeast through
the Southern Appalachians early on Wednesday. Another strong upper
level ridge builds east across the eastern states later Wednesday
through Friday keeping the dry forecast in place. Finally, late
Friday night into Saturday a cold front will move across the
forecast area generating some rainfall. Some uncertainty exists in
terms of the intensity of the precipitation with this frontal
system, but of course, any rainfall is welcome. There is a small
chance that there could be a few more showers on Sunday as
additional short wave energy drops southeast through the base of
the weekend long wave trough. It looks like another mild November
week ahead with high temperatures starting out about three to four
degrees ahead of normal on Tuesday. The warmth continues through
the work week with highs topping out a good ten to to twelve
degrees above normal by Friday. Cooler air building in over the
weekend with bring us back to normal or below with highs in the 50s
by Sunday.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 67 43 66 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 63 40 64 / 10 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 39 63 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 61 34 60 / 10 10 0 0

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KHUN 131848
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1248 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 1245 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016

Rather busy day here at the office as calls/tweets continue to roll
in about the smoke across the area. The low level flow remains east
to northeasterly, and visibilities have dropped to around 4-5 miles
in spots across northeast Alabama. Midday shortwave IR imagery from
MODIS shows several large fires/hotspots, with the largest being the
Rough Ridge/Cohutta fire across north central GA. At last report,
this fire has burned over 19k acres. Multiple fairly signficant fires
evident across eastern Tennessee into western NC, showing up even
through the midday cloud cover.

Aside from the smoky conditions, clouds have cleared out this
afternoon as the initial upper low ejects east (more on that in a
bit). Temps recovered quickly from a chilly start, currently running
in the low to middle 60s in most locations. Winds will decouple
quickly tonight making for a rather smoky night. Through the
smoke/haze, viewing of the super/mega/colossal moon should be decent
if not optimal across the area. For reference, the supermoon will
reach its closest point to earth tonight at 522 AM CST. Moon rise
this evening will be around 440 PM CST with moon set around 610 AM
CST.

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1245 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016

A messy split flow pattern will persit through the short term with a
series of southern stream systems passing across the region over the
next 48 hours. The first aforementioned upper tough/low will
continue to push east toward the southeast United States coastline
tonight. Although this feature did bring some cloudiness to the
region earlier today, the rainfall remained well east of the
Tennessee Valley.

The next wave will weaken significantly as it approaches the area on
Monday. Little in the way of low level moisture will be present with
this sytem, and only expect an increase in mid/high clouds
perhaps late Monday. One bit of good news, winds should slowly veer
to a more westerly direction and help somewhat with the smoke/haze
situation (at least temporarily). Refer to our recent social media
posts (over the past couple of days) along with today's Public
Information Statement on more details concerning the smoke/fires.

Despite some increase in cloud cover late on Monday, the warm air
advection and southerly flow should help temps reach a category or so
above today's readings for high temperatures. A secondary shortwave
trough will move across Monday night on the back edge of the larger
scale longwave trough. This system will have a bit more lift
associated with it, although moisture is still limited. The latest
high resolution model guidance produces very light QPF across
northern MS and northwest AL late Monday night into early Tuesday.
Will continue dry forecast for now given already dry thermal profiles
and little model continuity.

The upper level ridge will sharpen acros the central/southern plains
on Tuesday in response to some phasing of nrn/srn stream energy
along the eastern seaboard. This will help to push a weak dry front
across the Tennessee Valley. Really not much, if any, airmass change
with this feature as thickness values remain at or above
climatological norms. In fact, trends show a slightly less amplified
eastern CONUS flow pattern than previous runs.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016

To start this period, an upper ridge will be over the central
portion of country with the TN valley in nw flow. By Thursday the
upper ridge axis is progged to move over the sern US. This scenario
will keep dry conditions along with a slight warming trend across
the cwa. Aftn highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the low/mid
70s with mrng lows mainly in the mid 40s. These aftn/mrng temps will
also continue into Friday. However Friday looks to be the last day
of above normal temps as a fairly strong cdfnt will be approaching
the TN valley. For now will lean a little more with the GFS for the
timing of the cdfnt. As such the cdfnt should begin to affect the TN
valley by late Friday night and into Saturday mrng. If the GFS is
correct the cdfnt should be out of the cwa by the early evening
hours on Saturday. Behind the cdfnt much more colder temps will push
across the area on Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 50s
with a good chc of freezing temps by Sunday night/Monday mrng
)based on GFS model soundings).

As for any severe wx with this cdfnt, it looks to be a low cape/
high shear event, especially late Friday night and early Saturday
mrng. However overall it does not look like a widespread severe
event attm, due to speed of cdfnt and perhaps a lack of good
moisture return. Thus for now will maintain slight chc wording for
tsra on Friday night and just shra on Saturday. However may have to
add a slight chc of thunder on Saturday for locations east of
I65.This will all depend on the timing of the cdfnt.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2016

Weak ridging will persist across the Tennessee Valley through tonight
helping to maintain general VFR conditions at both KHSV and KMSL.
Light northeasterly flow does continue to advect in smoke from fires
in Northern Georgia, with the smoke layer extending up to around 8
kft. This obscuration may reduce visibilities in isolated spots to
around 5-6 statute miles. A weak system will approach the area on
Monday resulting in a wind shift to the south and eventually
southwest.

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...007
AVIATION...15

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KJKL 131742
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1242 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1242 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2016

The latest MODIS imagery suggests the heaviest smoke remains
across the TN Valley this afternoon. There are more localized
issues here in eastern Ky particularly near the I-75 region around
London and south/east. Given the more isolated nature will keep
out of the grids. However some VIS restrictions are being seen in
these areas based on webcams and ASOS. The 12Z HRRR Smoke product
does suggest some elevated light smoke issues through the
afternoon particular in the south, but this is not expected to be
like the smoke issues seen last week. Forecast grids are on track
but did update with latest obs.

UPDATE Issued at 1028 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016

Most sites have come above freezing this hour and therefore the
Freeze Warning has been allowed to expire. Given the widespread
hard freeze this will also put a end to the Frost/Freeze Program
until spring. In terms of the forecast, surface analysis shows a
high pressure generally center across northern KY and portions of
WV. Meanwhile a upper level low is centered across the TN Valley
and Northern GA, and this is bringing showers and clouds to
portions of GA/SC this AM. We will remain under the control of the
surface high and therefore another very dry day is on tap. We
could also see some light smoke across the region today in the
lower levels, but not confident that this will cause any
widespread surface VIS restrictions. Therefore will leave out of
the grids for now. However the localized sites near some of the
ongoing wildfire will continue see restrictions. Updated grids
with latest obs and trends, otherwise no major changes needed at
this time.

UPDATE Issued at 648 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016

Freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points, based on the
latest trends in observations. Temperatures look to rise to above
freezing at all locations by 10 am, so will let the current
headline run its course.

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016

High pressure is currently poised from the Arklatex region to
the Ohio Valley. Aloft, an upper level low is cutting off near the
Tennessee Valley, with another weaker cutoff low spiraling near
the Texas/Oklahoma border. In between these two features, resides
a ridge, currently centered across the Midwest.

Clear skies and calm winds has allowed for the coldest night thus
far this fall season across eastern Kentucky. Some valleys are
already in the lower 20s, with another 4 hours or so of cooling to
take place, yielding some upper teens in at least a few spots by
dawn.

Mainly clear skies will be seen today, as most of the cloud cover
associated with the Tennessee Valley cutoff will remain southeast.
Despite the cold start, highs will make it back into the lower 60s
for most locations today. The Midwest ridge will break down
tonight into Monday, with more troughiness culminating across the
Ohio and Tennessee valleys by the end of the short term. Tonight
will not be as cold, although with drier dew points likely mixing
down once again today, think that some valleys will make it into
the 20s once again.

Monday will feature a mostly sunny to partly cloudy day, with
highs similar to today, although readings will be just a touch
cooler in the east, where more clouds will reside.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 304 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016

The extended period should start off with a large trough of low
pressure aloft parked over the eastern third of the CONUS. Since
this system will be starved for moisture, we can expect nothing
more than scattered cloud cover across the area as the trough
pushes slowly off to the east Monday night and Tuesday. High
pressure, mainly aloft at first, should begin displacing the
aforementioned trough Tuesday night into Wednesday. As the ridge
moves over our area, we can expect continued dry weather and a few
clouds here and there through Friday. The next chance for rain
across eastern Kentucky may not arrive until as late as Friday
night, as a trough of low pressure and its associated surface cold
front approach the area. This issue with this part of the forecast
will be the timing of the weather system. As of now the GFS and
ECMWF models differ quite a bit in this regard, with the GFS
having a much slower solution than the ECMWF. Both models do,
however, depict a strong area of low pressure with plenty of
moisture for precipitation production, and a rather cold air mass
moving in behind it. Another feature of this area of low pressure
would be its somewhat slow eastward movement as it strengthens
during its eastward trek. This would allow any precipitation the
system produces to linger across the area through early Sunday
morning.

Temperatures across the area should start out around normal, with
highs on Tuesday and Wednesday expected to top out in the upper
50s and lower 60s. A gradual warm up is then expected for the end
of the week, as winds shift to the south and southwest ahead of an
approaching trough of low pressure. In fact, we could see high
temperatures topping out in the upper 60s and lower 70s Thursday
and Friday. The proof of the aforementioned cool down will likely
be revealed on Saturday, with highs only expected to make it into
the mid to upper 50s across the area, as a much colder air mass
settles over the area behind our departed trough. Nightly lows
should generally be in the 30s and 40s area wide during the period.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2016

VFR and light winds remains the story for most through the TAF
period. There is some isolated smoke across the southeast KY this
afternoon. Therefore will continue with a VIS restriction for
smoke at LOZ. There is quite a bit of uncertainty on if this will
clear out this evening. HRRR smoke product would show at least
some elevated light smoke issues lingering in that area through
the evening into the night. Right now will cutoff the MVFR VIS by
00Z, but this may need to be extended further particularly once
the inversion sets up.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KHUN 122056
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
256 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016

An upper level shear axis extending from NE TX to the Mid-Atlantic
states is in the process of becoming a cut-off low just to our west.
With the weak system to our west tonight models are all in agreement
in keeping winds out of the NE/E. MODIS satellite imagery this
afternoon was a good indicator of just how much smoke has made it
into the area from the wildfires across N GA/E TN/W NC. For tonight
one concern is the potential for reduced visibilities due to smoke
from the wildfires. Observations from this morning only indicated a
reduction down to 6-7 miles due to the smoke but this was only in
Jackson and DeKalb counties. Unless we start to see more easterly
winds in N GA/NE AL believe that the visibilities will be similar to
this morning of 6-7 miles.

Latest Air Quality forecast has portions of Jackson and DeKalb
counties in a "Unhealthy for sensitive groups". It is recommended
that people with asthma or are sensitive the reduced air quality limit
their time outdoors this evening.

Mostly clear skies tonight and generally light winds will allow for
temps to drop into the upper 30s.

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016

The system mentioned above begins to shift eastward into NW GA during
the day Sunday. The latest guidance continued to indicate that the
cut-off low would be able to advect some moisture back to the west up
through central GA and guidance still generates some light rain with
the moisture advection. Expect a gradual increase in cloud cover as
moisture in the mid-levels spreads into the eastern half of the
area. However, with the amount of dry air over the region and the
center of the upper level system over AL/GA any precip that does form
over central GA will remain well to our east. While we miss out on
any precip, the good news is that with winds becoming westerly will
help to clear out some of the smoke.

We will remain under a broad trough with a few shortwaves moving
across the region Monday and Tuesday. But dry air is forecast to
continue with PWATS less than 0.5 inches and dewpoints in the 30s.
So, the most we can expect with any of the shortwaves is a brief
increase in cloud cover.

Expect high temperatures to warm a degree or two from Sunday (upper
60s) to Monday (lower 70s). Overnight lows will be in the middle to
upper 30s each night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016

As the main trough axis deepens (trailing south from a surface/upper
low moving east into the great lakes region) Monday night into
Tuesday morning, an associated cool front will push east across the
area. New runs are showing some very light showers being produced in
southern/central Mississippi as the front pushes east Monday night.
However, northern Alabama will likely not see the moisture return
that may be seen further southwest, so not expecting any
precipitation.

Not much cooler air will follow behind the front. However, the
departing front should keep highs in the mid to upper 60s to lower
70s in most locations on Tuesday.

Longer range synoptic models continued to rebuild a strong upper
level ridge behind this front and quickly move it eastward Wednesday
into Thursday. This will lead to a warming trend both days.
Highs in the lower 70s look reasonable on Wednesday.

By Thursday, both models center this ridge over the Tennessee Valley
and further amplify the ridge over the area. This should allow the
925 mb/850 mb temps to rise to between 15 to 18 degrees. High
temperatures look to respond and jump into the mid 70s on Thursday.
Long range models continue to develop a strong storm system over the
midwestern U.S. Thursday night and into Friday. Latest GFS has
slowed this system down (closer to previous ECMWF model run timing),
as the upper ridge is stronger this run than previous runs with the
GFS. If the approaching system slows down more due to the strong
upper ridge, Friday's highs could climb into the mid 70s as well.

However, the ridge looks too strong for any precipitation ahead of
the front to affect the Tennessee Valley until Friday night into
Saturday. Although, a strong upper level jet and a 30 kt 850 mb jet
is progged by models, thunderstorms look very doubtful, as CAPE and
instability aloft is non-existent. Given the strong forcing with
this system, at least some isolated to scattered showers look
possible though. Unfortunately, unless the upper ridging slows this
system down more (allowing a longer period for moisture return),
rain amounts will be very paltry (less than one half of an inch).

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2016

An upper level trough has become centered over the area based on
latest satellite imagery. This has allowed a slight increase in wind
speeds along and south of the TN River but speeds should decrease
through the afternoon and into the evening hours. VFR conditions are
forecast but smoke from wildfires in N GA/E TN will cause some haze.

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...Stumpf
SHORT TERM...Stumpf
LONG TERM...KTW
AVIATION...Stumpf

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 110929
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
329 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT... Forecast confidence is high.

Early morning temperatures were in the lower 40s, and we will not
recover too much today due to steady cold air advection. Highs will
only reach the upper 40s, despite mostly sunny skies. These are
actually the normal high temperatures for this time of year.

It will be another breezy day, especially this morning. There are
strong winds ongoing right now around 500 to 1000 feet above the
ground. These winds will mix down to the surface as gusts of 25 to
possibly 30 mph starting mid morning. Winds and gusts will be
highest through noon and then gradually taper off through the
afternoon as high pressure noses into the area.

MODIS satellite imagery shows lake surface temperatures around 12C.
We need at least an 8C difference between the lake and 850mb to
start seeing lake effect clouds, along with a decent fetch. These
conditions will be met near southeast WI as winds turn to the north-
northeast later this morning. Expect lake effect clouds over far
southeast WI to linger through the evening before shifting farther
south and dissipating.

Tonight will be the coldest night in southern WI so far this season
and most areas will see a hard freeze. We are not issuing frost or
freeze headlines since we are well past the average time of year to
see the first freezing temperatures. High pressure sliding through
southwest and south central WI will help to create a strong
inversion, calm wind, clear skies, and strong radiational cooling
overnight. Lows will drop into the upper 20s for much of southern
WI. I wouldn't be surprised to see some mid 20s toward Baraboo, Lone
Rock, and areas toward central WI, close to the core of the high
and in this dry air mass.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - Confidence...High
Surface high south of WI will continue to shift southeast this
period which will result in a sustained mild wsw flow with gradual
warming of 850/925 temps. Bufkit column is parched so plenty of
sunshine though breezy at times with a decent pressure gradient in
place between the departed high and approaching Plains trough.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - Confidence...Medium
Shortwave trough swings in from the northwest. Surface/850 trough
also comes through with very little post frontal cooling. Some bump
in 850 dews noted ahead of the surface/850 forcing features though
overall column moistening not looking too impressive. If anything
the NAM and GFS try to moisten up the low levels suggesting that if
anything it would be a drizzle scenario, but overall depth of
moisture not supportive of any POPS at this time. Will leave a dry
forecast intact for now per Superblend guid.

.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - Confidence...Medium
The pattern remains energized with another mid level trough axis
swinging across the western Great Lakes region. The ECWMF shows
a slightly stronger lead wave than the GFS. Then both show an
elongated/sheared vort axis arriving later Tuesday or Tuesday
night with the GFS keeping any of this energy more north. The GFS
shows a dry scenario while the ECMWF shows shra potential. Will keep
the small Superblend POPS to account for the wetter look of the
ECMWF.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - Confidence...Medium
Mid level ridge bumps back up across ahead of next trough moving out
of the Rockies into the Plains. Surface ridge dominates Wednesday
into Wednesday night and then shifts to the east on Thursday which
sets up a return flow ahead of the developing Plains low pressure.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Winds are in the 30 to 40 knot range just above
the surface early this morning. These winds will be able to mix down
to the ground as gusts of 25 to 30 knots by mid morning. Highest
gusts will be closest to Lake Michigan. Winds and gusts will gradually
taper off during the early afternoon hours as high pressure noses
in.

Some lower VFR lake effect clouds should move into southeast WI by
mid morning as well. There could be some MVFR at times. The main
lake effect cloud band is expected to set up over northeast IL and
clip southeast WI through early evening. A few sprinkles are
possible. Inland areas should see some scattered VFR/MVFR clouds
this morning, but full sunshine will return this afternoon.

.MARINE...Small Craft Advisory continues through this evening across
the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan near southeast WI. Gusty north-
northeast winds will build high waves today. Winds will diminish
through the afternoon, and waves will subside from north to south
this evening. I extended the small craft advisory south of the
North Point Light until midnight based on expected lingering
higher waves.

Another Small Craft Advisory may be needed for Saturday night into
Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens once again across the area.
Gusts to 25 knots are possible during this period. Offshore winds
should keep high waves over the open waters.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight CST tonight for LMZ645-646.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening for LMZ643-644.

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...Collar

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 071615 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1015 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016

.UPDATE...

Deeper moisture arrives around midnight, so expect lower clouds to
fill in across southern WI. There could be a few sprinkles with
this, as the HRRR and NAMNest models are picking up on some light
pre-frontal precip.

The main round of rain will hold of until the front arrives from
northwest to southeast between 2 am and 5 am. This will be a quick
shot for rain and not amount to much. Models are trending a little
slower with the arrival of the front.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

South winds ahead of an approaching cold front will gradually
increase the moisture today, with the atmosphere saturating tonight.
This will result in lower VFR cigs from late evening through early
morning out ahead of the front, and then cigs down to IFR along and
just behind the cold front that will be moving through southern
Wisconsin late tonight. Expect a band of showers with the front. IFR
ceilings should persist until around noon Tuesday, and then we can
expect gradual improvement to MVFR and eventually VFR before
clearing from west to east Tuesday afternoon.

.MARINE...

Mostly southerly winds expected today as high pressure remains over
the NE CONUS and a cold front approaches from the northern Plains.
This cold front is expected to sweep across the near shore waters
late tonight and Tuesday morning. Colder air funneling southward
over the relatively warmer Lake MI waters will allow wind gusts to
likely reach 25 knots Tuesday afternoon and evening. A Small Craft
Advisory may be issued this afternoon for this period. Lake surface
temperature remains in the 50-55 degree range per recent MODIS
imagery.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 141 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016/

TODAY and TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence is high.

A shortwave moving across south central Canada, will drop southeast
across the Lake Superior and Wisconsin area early Tuesday morning.

Upper level divergence, and 700 mb upward motion begins this
afternoon and through the night.

850 mb temperatures cool a just a little today. As a result, expect
it to be warm, but temperatures should be a few degrees cooler,
especially as high clouds increase, along with a little increase in
low level/mid moisture. A cold front moves across southern
Wisconsin late tonight, with showers expected near the front. The
GFS does not have any elevated CAPE, so will not include any
thunderstorm mention in the forecast.

Patchy fog mainly in river valleys and low areas, should dissipate
rather quickly after sunrise. With a bit more of a gradient, expect
a little less fog than yesterday.

TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

The front will be exiting the southeast forecast area Tuesday
morning. Models are in decent agreement now with the front timing,
putting higher confidence in a few lingering showers early in the
day. It should be dry by mid-morning though as high pressure
begins to build in behind the departing system.

Models are within a couple degrees of each other for high temps,
but do differ for the afternoon. The GFS and NAM are quicker with
the colder air, showing a cooling trend during the afternoon
hours. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and Canadian hold off on the cooler
temps aloft until evening. Generally split the temp differences
for the afternoon hours.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

High pressure will move back in for Wednesday, then briefly give
way to a passing trough on Thursday, before returning for the end
of the week into the weekend. Still not seeing enough moisture
and forcing with the trough to warrant pops, so opted to keep the
forecast dry through the weekend.

Temps will remain above normal Wed/Thu, but should return to
around normal behind the trough Friday and Saturday. Southerly
winds between the departing high and an approaching trough should
push temps back to a few degrees above normal on Sunday.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Expect patchy IFR/LIFR ground fog, especially in river valleys and
low areas. With a little more of a pressure gradient, expect a
little less fog, that will dissipate rather quickly after sunrise.

South winds ahead of an approaching cold front, will gradually
increase the moisture today, with the atmosphere saturating tonight,
resulting in lower cigs to IFR near a cold front that will be moving
through southern Wisconsin late tonight. Expect a band of showers
with the front.

MARINE...

South to Southwest winds will increase today and tonight with a
tightening pressure gradient. A cold front will then push across
lake Michigan around sunrise Tuesday. Winds will become north and
gusty on Tuesday behind the cold front. North winds/waves will
likely reach Small Craft Advisory levels Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.

UPDATE...MRC/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 051952
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
255 PM CDT SAT NOV 5 2016

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY - Forecast Confidence...High.

The weather pattern will remain the same through Sunday, so only
expect subtle differences to the forecast when compared to the last
two days.

The high pressure ridge will drift toward southern WI a little more
tonight, which means lighter winds just off the surface, which
supports a stronger surface inversion and fog development.

Based on model visibility and a small dewpoint depression, there is
a pretty good chance for dense fog to develop across portions of
southern WI, especially inland from Lake Michigan. We may need a
dense fog advisory headline by later this evening.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - Forecast Confidence...High.

A quiet start to the period as a large high pressure ridge continues
to slide slowly east, away from the western Great Lakes. Upstream
warm air and moisture advection should result in an increase in
clouds on Monday. Primarily high clouds are expected so another
pleasant day lies ahead with mild temperatures. May be some ground
fog late Sunday night and early Monday but stronger boundary layer
mixing should keep fog more patchy and visibilities higher. Hence,
will hold off on introducing fog into this period.

Short term guidance continue to come into better agreement on
slightly more amplification to short wave trof passing across the
northern Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday. Southern extension
of passing wave will interact with a narrow swath of precipitable
water which increases to around 1 inch during the night. Brief
period of enhanced synoptic forcing tied to right entrance region
over southern WI. Hence enough moisture and lift in place to
warrant continuing chance pops for -shra overnight. Mid-level
drying returns quickly on brisk northwest winds on Tuesday, but
lingering cyclonic flow and low level moisture should result in bkn-
ovc cu field returning during the day.

.EXTENDED PERIOD...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY - Forecast Confidence...High.

Fairly quiet weather can be expected this period with a trend toward
colder, more seasonal temperatures by the weekend. Temperatures
should remain above the seasonal average Wednesday and Thursday as
upper level steering flow remains weakly northwest to zonal as large
high pressure area extends from southwest CONUS into the Upper
Midwest.

Strong piece of short wave energy ejected from eastern Pacific long-
wave trof will gain in strength and amplitude as it tracks east
across southern Canada early in the extended period. Increasing
amplitude will carry this short wave southeast across the GreatLakes
Thursday night and Friday...along with accompanying surface cold
front. Low to mid-level moisture appears sparse with this passing
disturbance. No showers expected at this time. A surge of colder
air will follow frontal passage across southern WI on Friday and
Friday night. Medium range guidance in agreement for colder air to
retreat east with some modification over the weekend. Never the
less, looking at a much better chance for more widespread near or
slightly below freezing temps Friday night and possibly Saturday
night.

Looking more likely that cooler, more seasonal conditions will be
here to stay beginning the week of the 13th, but still no
significant weather systems on the horizon.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...Expect areas of fog to develop tonight. There
is a good chance for dense fog, primarily for areas inland from Lake
Michigan.

.MARINE...Patchy inland fog is expected later tonight which may
drift over to parts of the nearshore areas by sunrise.

Recent MODIS imagery is showing lake surface temperatures in the
lower 50s. With inland temperatures expected to climb into the upper
60s Sunday, expect a lake breeze to develop late Sun morning and
afternoon over the near shore waters.

A small craft advisory may be needed on Tuesday in the wake of a
cold front.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...None.
LM...None.

$$
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 051559 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1059 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016

.UPDATE...

Forecast is on track for today, heading up to mid to upper 60s for
highs. Plan on sunny skies and light southwest winds.

Expect areas of fog tonight. There is a pretty good chance for dense
fog to develop, so we will probably need a dense fog advisory
headline by later this evening.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

Expect areas of fog to develop tonight. There is a good chance for
dense fog, primarily for areas inland from Lake Michigan.

.MARINE...

Recent MODIS imagery measuring lake surface temperature in the lower
50s. With inland temperatures expected to climb into the lower to
middle 60s, and decreasing boundary layer winds to less than 10
knots, expect a lake breeze to develop late this morning and
afternoon over the near shore waters. The winds should switch back
to the southwest tonight but back to the south to southeast again on
Sunday. Patchy inland fog is expected later tonight which may carry
over parts of the nearshore areas by sunrise.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 314 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... Forecast confidence is high.

High pressure centered over the Ohio valley. Light southwest
winds with a weak lake breeze by afternoon. Patchy dense fog early
this morning and again Late tonight as winds should be a little
lighter.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

High pressure centered to the east of the state will bring
continued pleasant weather Sunday and Monday. Above normal
temperatures will persist into early next week.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Low pressure is progged to drag a cold front through southern
Wisconsin Monday night into early Tuesday. Models in general have
come in with a bit deeper saturation as the front moves through,
so have somewhat higher pops than previously. There are still
uncertainties in timing of the front and strength of forcing
though, so highest pops are just low end chance for now.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

High pressure will be overhead Wednesday, briefly give way to a
passing trough on Thursday, then return behind the the trough on
Friday. Not seeing enough moisture and forcing with the trough to
warrant pops, so opted to keep the forecast dry through the second
half of the work week.

Temps will still be a bit above normal Wed/Thu...but should return
to around normal behind the trough on Friday.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Areas of ground fog early this morning with a few localized areas
of LIFR, especially in river valleys.

MARINE...

High pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley. Light
southwest winds with a weak lake breeze by afternoon.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

UPDATE...MRC/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz
Sunday THROUGH Friday...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KLWX 030755
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
355 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build southward into the region
tonight through early Friday. Hurricane Matthew may track along
or offshore the southeast U.S. and mid-Atlantic coasts Thursday
night through the end of the week.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...A few showers have been affecting
ncntrl and northeast MD during the past couple of hrs, but these
are now moving into the MD eastern shore and Delaware. Showers are
also developing now over Charles county MD. Low clouds and/or fog
have also been developing over eastern WV...nrn and cntrl VA. Fog
is evident over the Shenandoah valley on the latest MODIS- Aqua
nighttime microphysics product. Will monitor fog potential over
the next svrl hrs to see whether a dense fog advzy may be needed
or not.

After morning fog burns and/or low clouds mix out, light NW flow
will take place leading to mostly sunny skies east of the Blue
Ridge and partly cloudy skies west. Subsidence will build in
behind departing trof leading to a nice early fall day with temps
in the mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...High
pressure will begin to build southward into the area from
northern New England tonight. A stratus layer may develop over
southwest VA late tonight under a northeast flow. Increasing pres
gradient/winds will likely prevent fog from forming. Sfc flow
begins to turn more easterly Tue with low clouds possibly advecting
from the east in the afternoon. Onshore flow strengthens Tue night
into Wed which may result in low clouds and some drizzle along and
east of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge mtns.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...High pressure will be in place
across much of the Mid-Atlantic region and New England Thursday.
Onshore flow will persist and low clouds...drizzle and fog are
possible through Friday. Northeast flow and cloud cover will keep
conditions near normal with max temps in the U60s/L70s through
Saturday.

Hurricane Matthew is expected to be move across the Bahamas at the
end of the work week and continue northward this weekend. There is a
high level of uncertainty regarding the track of the hurricane as it
moves north of the Bahamas this weekend. Please consult the National
Hurricane Center for the most up to date forecasts regarding
Hurricane Matthew.

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...LIFR conditions possible
at KCHO and KMRB early this morning. Conditions improve to VFR
after 13Z. Stratus clouds possible again tonight in northeast
flow with some cigs restrictions. Higher probs of MVFR/IFR
conditions Tue night and early Wed as onshore flow deepens.

Flight restrictions possible late this week as onshore flow
persists.

.MARINE...Winds less than 10 kt through this evening, then begin
to strengthen late tonight through Wed with SCA conditions
possible beginning Tue afternoon which may persist through the end
of the week.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...No coastal flooding expected through
tonight. Increasing onshore flow Tue and Wed will likely result in
minor coastal flooding at Straits Pt and Annapolis Tue night and
Wed. Water levels may rise further at the end of the week as winds
strengthen as Matthew moves along or offshore the southeast U.S.
and mid-Atlc coasts.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...HSK/LFR
MARINE...HSK/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 250830
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
330 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence - Medium.

Will continue Flash Flood Watch across Sauk and Marquette counties
due to susceptibility to any additional rainfall today. Short term
guidance in good agreement on surge of column moisture this morning
across southern WI as precipitable water increases one quarter to
one half inch, approaching 2 inches by afternoon. Upstream front
now located in western MN expected to slowly progress ewd and move
into wrn CWA by late am, and exit ern CWA by early evening. Best
chance for more numerous showers and storms will be this afternoon
as front and low level frontogenetical forcing moves thru srn WI.
However wl keep in lower pops for more showers this morning as mid-
level moisture increases and upstream weak mid-level short wave
clips srn wi. Expect anywhere from a tenth to six tenths of an inch
as showers and storms expected to be more progressive over srn WI
compared to upstream overnight scenario, but may still be more
localized higher amounts so continuing Flash Flood Watch. Marginal
Risk warranted as bulk shear to increase to 35 to 40 kts ahead of
passing cold front while MUCape reaches around 1000 j/kg. Sfc
dewpoints likely to increase into the upper 60s this aftn, pooling
along cold front. Expect convection to end rapidly during the early
evening behind front as drier, more stable conditions spread across
srn WI.

.MONDAY - Confidence...Medium
The surface low is proggd to be situated north of Lake Superior. A
much cooler and drier airmass will be set up as 1000/500
millibar thicknesses drop to near 546DM. The 925 temps will be
are coldest on the GFS...dropping to 7-8C by days end with the NAM
and ECMWF around 10-11c. West winds will make it feel even cooler.
Some of the MOS guidance suggests some parts of the northern CWA
may be lucky to hit 60 for daytime highs. A strongly cyclonic 500
millibar flow will become set up. The first vort lobe passes
through in the morning with the overall circulation becoming
entrenched across the Upper Midwest. Given this regime expect
cloud cover to be fairly widespread with cyclonic flow aloft and
low level thermal trough. For now will keep any shra chances
across the northern CWA but may need to expand these POPS further
south but will keep it in the north at the moment.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - Confidence...Medium
The models are in pretty decent agreement on waffling this 500
millibar low/expansive circulation slowly south through Tuesday
evening and then eastward to the eastern Lakes region/Ohio Valley
on Wednesday. The low level thermal trough will continue to
amplify with 925 temps dropping to 5-8c this period. There will be
an increased chance of showers across mainly the northern and
eastern CWA as the surface/850 lows shift sse from Lake Superior.
This will set up lower level forcing in combination with the mid
level cyclonic flow. So the models are generating mainly light
precip amounts...mainly a tenth or two. The ECWMF shows a little
more enhanced low level troughing later Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.

.THURSDAY - Confidence...Low to Medium
The GFS and GEM solutions show the 500 millibar low across the
eastern Lakes and Ohio valley with the ECMWF showing much less
progression further south and west. In fact it would keep at least
our southern CWA on the northwest periphery of the expansive
circulation. Meanwhile the GFS and GEM has rising heights for us
with surface ridging dominating. Even the ECMWF solution still
keeps us dry though a bit more of a ne wind with a tighter pressure
gradient.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - Confidence...Low
The model divergence becomes more pronounced as it relates to the
positioning of the 500 millibar low. The ECMWF continues a trend
towards retrogression in contrast the more progressive scenario
of the GFS and GEM. The ECMWF drifts the low back towards lower
MI for Saturday and this results in shra being wrapped back into
srn WI. The GFS and GEM show the high dominating. At this time the
Superblend POPS are leaning towards the dry solutions, and will
stick with that route for the time being.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Thickening clouds likely to spread eastward
this morning with the best chance for showers and a few storms
affecting TAF sites from late morning through the afternoon. Cigs
should be mainly VFR however may drop to MVFR with any showers or
storms. Better chance for lower cigs late tonight and Monday as
core of coldest air settles over southern WI in tight cyclonic
flow.

.MARINE...Expect increasing south to southeast winds this morning as
pressure gradient tightens ahead of approaching cold front. Recent
MODIS imagery and nearby buoys measure near shore lake surface
water temperature in the upper 50s to lower 60s while warmer sfc
water in the lower 70s remain offshore. Will continue Small Craft
Advisory today and push start time to mid-morning from Port
Washington north as gusts exceeding 22 knots should start to be
felt at Sheboygan lakeshore later this morning along with building
waves. Counting on cooler lakeshore waters to prevent stronger
gusts from mixing to lake surface farther south today, so wl hold
off on expanding Small Craft Advisory south, however will be close
and caution is advised.

Breezy west to northwest winds will develop late tonight and
continue through Tuesday as much cooler air settles over the Great
Lakes behind passing cold front. Tight pressure gradient over Lake
Michigan as low pressure passes to the north wl result in the gusty
winds. Wind gusts will get close to Gale levels on Monday, however
confidence in persistent gusts exceeding 33 knots low at this point.
If confidence increases, the first Gale Watch of the season may be
issued later today for Monday into Monday night.

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening for WIZ046-056.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
evening for LMZ643.

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Monday THROUGH Saturday...Collar

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 180156
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
856 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.UPDATE...Stratocumulus deck over west central WI continued to
shrink and dissipate through the early evening as only a few
patches of sct-bkn around 4k feet remain. With a moderate
overnight inversion expected and temperatures falling a few
degreees below the crossover temperature, need to add at least
patchy fog mention to the late night. Lowered temperatures in a
few locations as well. Lingering thermal trof and weak passing
mid-level short wave may cause some cloud redevelopment but low
levels do dry out during the late night, adding to a better chance
of fog development.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...Stratocumulus deck continued to shrink and
dissipate through the early evening. Only a few patches of sct-bkn
around 4k feet remain in the vicinity. Thermal trof and weak 5H
wave does pass across srn WI late tonight into early Sunday which
may generate more patchy clouds during the late night. However,
low levels begin to dry out later in the night, so thinking some
patchy fog may develop and affect several taf sites late tonight.
For now due to uncertainty, wl keep the visibility restriction in
the MVFR category.

.MARINE...Recent MODIS imagery showed upwelling of colder sub-
surface water has taken place over the past day or so. Lake
surface temps have fallen into the 50s. A weak pressure gradient
is expected across southeast WI and lower Lake MI on Sunday. The
combination of the weak pressure gradient and a tighter thermal
gradient should result in a better chance for a lake breeze to
develop near the lake shore by Sunday afternoon. Hence went with
more SE winds.

.BEACHES...The 2016 Beach Hazard season on Lake Michigan will end
tomorrow, September 18th. The last Recreational Beach Forecast for
beaches along Lake Michigan from Sheboygan county to Kenosha
county will be issued around 5 pm September 18th. The National
Weather Service Beach Hazard Program will return in May 2017,
shortly before the Memorial Day weekend.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

The northern portion of high pressure will build into southern
Wisconsin tonight, then slide southeastward a bit on Sunday. Should
see skies eventually turn mostly clear this evening into tonight as
the high builds in and daytime heating is lost. Should see a lot of
sunshine then on Sunday.

Could see a little fog develop tonight, the best chance in low lying
areas such as the Wisconsin River valley. Seems like just enough
wind in the lower levels to keep widespread fog from forming.

Temps tonight and Wednesday will remain a few degrees above normal.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Forecast confidence medium.

Swly flow and low to middle level warm advection is expected Sun
nt into Mon. This is in response to a 120 kt wly jet stream
becoming established along the US and Canadian border. The nose of
the strong upper jet will drive a strong shortwave trough across
the nrn Plains and nrn Great Lakes. The strongest surge of thetae
advection will be Mon morning followed by the gradual passage of
the cold front for the afternoon and evening. Isolated to
scattered showers and tstorms will be possible with the thetae
advection but more favored storm organization will be along the
cold front. MLCAPEs are expected to climb to 500-1000 joules along
the cold front. Expect the initiation to be near the WI and IL
border with at least scattered coverage. The Marginal Risk by SPC
looks good given the deep layer shear of 40-45 kts. Above normal
temps will continue for the early week with lower to middle 80s on
Mon just ahead of the cold front.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...Forecast confidence
medium.

A low amplitude, but broad upper ridge will shift from the nrn
High Plains to the Great Lakes from Wed to Sat in response to a
large upper trough moving from the wrn USA to the nrn High Plains.
This results in a warm front nosing into srn WI on Wed and
becoming stalled for the remainder of the week. Thus relatively
warm and humid conditions along with good chances of showers and
thunderstorms each day. The cold frontal passage will be Sat or
Sat nt.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Could see MVFR ceilings try and sneak into the northwest this evening
into tonight. High pressure will build overhead tonight, so not out
of the question to see some fog develop later in the night.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will then prevail through Sunday under
high pressure.

MARINE...

Winds will be lighter under high pressure Sunday. Southwest winds
could approach Small Craft Advisory levels on Monday as the pressure
gradient tightens ahead of approaching low pressure.

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

UPDATE...MBK
TONIGHT/Sunday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday...Gehring

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KLWX 131430
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1030 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift east from the northern Mid-Atlantic coast
rest of today. A mainly dry cold front will cross the area
Wednesday night. High pressure returns to the area through Friday
before a cold front crosses the area Sunday night.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low level SWly flow will bring mid to upper teen 850mb temps today
with temperatures a few degrees higher than yesterday...maxima 85
to 90F. Less cloud cover expected tonight with valley/ground fog
possible. Warmer with lows 65 to 70 due to a strengthening Sly flow.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H85 temps rise to 18-20C and sfc winds become westerly ahead of
cdfnt moving through the eastern Great Lks and New England states.
MOS guidance looks too cool and have used a model trend for MaxT
Wed. Expecting temps to reach the mid 90s with record highs likely
at DCA and IAD. Cdfnt will be moving through the area during the
evening and have kept a slight chance (20% POP) for MD counties
along the Mason- Dixon line. High pressure builds Thu through Fri
with temperatures at least 10 degs cooler Thu. Low clouds expected
to develop behind front Thu and Thu night with some very light
precip over the Blue Ridge mountains due to upslope flow.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will be located over
New England on Friday, with upper ridging moving overhead. A
light onshore wind combined with the low level thermal trough axis
passing through may mean Friday is the coolest day of the week
(and dry), as highs may stay below 80F for a large portion of the
area.

The high will move farther east Saturday as a low pressure system
moves into the Great Lakes. Am thinking Saturday remains dry, with
the best chance for any storms over the western terrain where
heights will be lower and there will be a SE upslope component to
the low level flow. It's also possible pre-frontal convection from
the west approaches during the evening or overnight. Otherwise,
increasing temperatures can be expected.

For Sunday-Monday, model spread begins to increase significantly in
how to handle the approaching cold front, upper level energy, and
possible interaction with moisture along the southeast coast. The
00Z ECMWF is flatter with the upper flow and quicker with the front,
whereas the 00Z GFS develops a closed low at 500mb, a wave along the
front, and a slower passage on Monday. Therefore, the forecast will
call for chances of showers and storms through this time period.
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through Monday.

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through Wed night. Southerly flow around 10 kt rest of today.
Winds shift west Wednesday gusting around 15 kt ahead of a dry
cold front that crosses Wednesday night. NWly flow gusts around 20
knots Thursday.

MVFR/IFR cigs possible Thu and especially Thu night due to
onshore flow behind fropa.

There is potential for MVFR clouds due to onshore flow Friday and
Saturday mornings, mainly at IAD/MRB/CHO.

.MARINE...
South winds 10 to 15 kt through this evening with high pressure
offshore. Winds expected to strengthen Wed night with SCA
conditions likely Thu through Fri morning.

High pressure will move off the coast Friday into Saturday. Onshore
flow Friday will become southerly on Saturday. Winds may approach
small craft advisory levels by late in the day.

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODIS and VIIRS True color images from yesterday revealed that
significant drying has occurred across northern VA and north
central MD especially in Washington, Frederick and western Loudoun
counties. Record high temperatures likely Wed with Rh's dropping
into the low twenties as winds become westerly. Red flags
conditions are not expected since winds are expected to remain
below criteria, but an elevated fire weather threat will exist due
to low humidities and drying fuels.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Light south flow has raised water levels about one foot above
normal. No coastal flooding is expected with this lesser high tide
during the day today (though Straits Pt and Annapolis will be
close), but is expected for sensitive locations for the preferred
high tide cycle tonight.

.CLIMATE...
Unseasonably hot weather will return to the area briefly on
Wednesday. Here is a list of record daily high and warm low
temperatures for September 14th.

Washington DC area (Ronald Reagan National Airport, DCA)
Record daily high temperature: 94 (1981, 1980 and 1915)
Record daily high minimum temperature: 75 (2008 and 1961)

Baltimore MD area (Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood
Marshall Airport, BWI)
Record daily high temperature: 94 (1931)
Record daily high minimum temperature: 74 (1915)

Dulles International Airport VA (IAD)
Record daily high temperature: 95 (1998)
Record daily high minimum temperature: 71 (2008)

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ/LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/LFR
FIRE WEATHER...lfr/baj
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...baj
CLIMATE...lwx

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 301509 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1009 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.UPDATE...

Shower and thunderstorm activity over northern Illinois is
weakening and moving off to the east this morning. Our southern
forecast area looks to avoid any chances of rainfall this
morning, so removed chance PoPs for our southern counties through
this morning.

Current radar shows evidence of a pre-frontal boundary ahead of
the effective cold front expected to act as the mechanism for
shower and thunderstorm activity later this afternoon. For now,
kept slight chance PoPs in the forecast across our forecast area
due to this pre-frontal boundary. The 30.13z HRRR model isn't
progging any shower/thunderstorm activity until 17z today, so will
maintain chances of thunderstorms in the forecast for the
afternoon. This activity may be out of the area by the evening if
the current HRRR run holds.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

Mainly VFR conditions, with some low-end MVFR/IFR cigs,
especially from the MSN TAF site and points west. Any vsby
reductions from this morning should mix-out as the day goes on.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this afternoon as a
cold front sweeps through S WI. Confidence is not high that all
TAF sites will see TS, so will likely maintain VCTS through the
afternoon. Approximate timing for thunderstorms looks to be
between 17z and 00z today.

Look for a brief period of gusty north to northeast winds for
eastern locations as the cold front moves through, with a brief
period of 15 to 20 kt winds.

.MARINE...

Light wind flow regime to continue today, however less onshore winds
expected. West to southwest winds will turn more south to southeast
for a time as lake breeze develops today. However outflow
boundary from early morning convection continues to move southeast
and will affect Sheboygan to Port Washington marine zone, and
possible next marine zone southward for a few hours late this
morning and early afternoon. Besides possibly setting off a shower
or storm, the outflow boundary will result in an hour or two of
more west to northwest winds before becoming more south to
southeast once again.

Recent MODIS imagery measured lake surface temperatures in the mid
to upper 60s over most of the near shore waters, which is about 5 to
10 degrees warmer than over the weekend. Hence less threat for
dense fog. Main cold front over northern WI will sweep thru near
shore waters tonight. Winds will abruptly shift to the north to
northeast and increase. RAP and NAM now showing a 1-3 hour period
of gusty north to northeast winds exceeding 22 knots overnight
across northern Marine zones, while latest GFS soundings not as
windy. For now, planning on holding off on Small Craft Advy and
think Marine Weather Statements may be needed for the overnight
brief period of gusty winds.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Band of showers and storms sagging south through nw WI and east-
central MN ahead of pre-frontal surface trough in region of weak 925
and 850 mb frontogenesis and differential CVA ahead of a vorticity
maximum south of main short wave trough tracking east across nrn
Ontario. The strongest cells in east-central MN are riding the
outflow boundary south-southwest along corridor of richer lower-
level moisture pooling ahead of the 925 mb trough within a pocket of
modest mid-level lapse rates around 7C/km. The showers/storms to the
east are diminishing as outflow races out ahead with only an
isolated shower or storm quickly popping up and dying along the
boundary.

Other showers and storms are re-firing over northern Illinois ahead
of a weak vort max/MCV within region of nearly stationary moisture
convergence and moving east just south of the border. A few light
showers within region of differential CVA with this feature are
crossing western sections of the CWA.

Will have slight chance/low chance PoPs in the southern forecast
area this morning to account for the potential of the southern band
of showers/storms in IL slipping into southern WI. Then chance PoPs
this afternoon with the weak forcing along the cold front, tapering
off from northwest to southeast this evening as the front moves
through. Could see some gusty north-northeast winds along the lake
as hi-res models indicate the front moving a bit faster down the
lake versus inland, with a brief period of 15 to 20 knot winds
within 1k ft of the surface right behind the front.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY - Confidence...Medium to High
Cold advection regime sets up Wednesday into Thursday as low
level thermal trough becomes established across the area. We will
be situated on western side of evolving mid/upper level
trough across the NE US. The NAM and GEM are more pronounced with
a glancing shortwave riding sewd in this flow while the GFS and
ECMWF keep this wave further east. 925 temps will settle into the
low to mid teens celsius. So a much cooler and more comfortable/drier
airmass this period. The mid level ridge axis starts to slide
across WI on Friday.

SATURDAY - Confidence...Medium to High
The surface high shifts well to the east though the expansive
anticyclonic influence lingers into srn WI. So another quiet day in
the works. The mid level ridge shifts east as well so we start to
see a more southwest flow at 500 millibars. The 925 temps bounce
back a bit due to a switch to a more southerly low level
trajectory.

SUNDAY - Confidence...Medium
The southerly low level flow strengthens further with 925 temps
rising into the low 20s celsius. The 500 millibar flow remains
southwest with the GFS is a bit more robust on the shortwave
activity riding through. Other models are weaker with this feature
and with a track more to our northwest. Primary cyclogenesis and
frontal convergence remains well to our west. While core of
strongest 850 jet remains across IA/ern MN and nw WI there is an
eastward extension of this jet with some moist advection and the
wave that suggests the Superblend pops are onto something for our
western CWA so will leave them as is for now.

LABOR DAY - Confidence...Low
Differences arise with the GFS building ridge axis north keeping
things less progressive on the shortwave energy front. meanwhile the
ECMWF shows things moving along with frontal system and band of
convection. The GFS implies a more east/west oriented frontal
boundary laying across central WI with still some convective chances
here but this scenario would suggest more scattered activity while
the ECMWF solution shows more widespread shra/tsra with the cold
frontal passage. Given the range of solutions will stick with the
Superblend guidance for now.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Mid level cloud deck has limited extent of fog
coverage overnight and have adjusted TAFs for a more optimistic vsby
forecast in the near term. Mainly VFR conditions expected through
the forecast, though expect scattered showers and storms to develop
along a weak cold front this afternoon and evening, pushing southeast
of the forecast area between 09Z and 12Z Wednesday. Will keep pcpn
mention as vicinity for now, though MVFR cigs/vsbys with any
showers/storms that reach TAF sites. Looking for a brief period of
gusty north to northeast winds at far eastern locations with cold
front moving a bit faster down Lake Michigan versus inland, with a
brief period of 15 to 20 knot winds within 1k ft of the surface
right behind the front.

MARINE...Looking at potential of a few showers or thunderstorms
slipping north into the southern marine zones this morning, but
scattered showers and storms will hold off until this afternoon
and evening as a cold front drops through the region. Looking for
a brief period of gusty north to northeast winds with cold front
moving a bit faster down Lake Michigan versus inland, with a brief
period of 15 to 20 knot winds within 1k ft of the surface right
behind the front. This will build wave heights to 2 to 4 feet by
Wednesday morning. North winds and waves will approach Small Craft
Advisory levels Wednesday into Wednesday night.

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

UPDATE...JTS/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
Wednesday THROUGH Monday...Collar

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 291657 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1157 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.UPDATE...

Scattered showers with middle to high clouds continue to develop
to the southwest of the area, and push toward the far western
counties. Weak differential cyclonic vorticity advection and some
weak 850 mb moisture pooling helping generate these showers. These
may hold together enough to make it into the far western and
southwestern parts of the area into this afternoon. Added some
POPs to these areas during this period. Enough mean layer CAPE
should develop to bring a few thunderstorms as well.

Outflow boundary from storms to the north also pushing southward
toward the area. This was helping produce some showers to the
north, but not much development has been seen in the past hour.
Will watch this for additional isolated shower/storm development
into this afternoon in the northern counties.

Middle to high clouds may continue to push east across the
southern and central portions of the area this afternoon. Not much
confidence here with trends, though the 500 mb relative humidity
fields on models do show these clouds hanging around the southern
half of the area into tonight.

Will add more clouds to the south and central portions of the
area during this time. This may affect highs this afternoon in
those areas, so lowered temperatures a few degrees.

Wood

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

Middle to high clouds should spread across a good portion of the
area this afternoon into tonight. May see scattered to broken
diurnal cumulus development as well, in case the higher clouds
do not make it all the way across the area. An isolated shower or
storm may affect Madison this afternoon, though not enough
confidence to mention in TAFs at this time. Light east to
southeast winds are expected.

Small chances for showers/storms are forecast for tonight, with a
better chance Tuesday into Tuesday evening with a cold front
passing southeast through the area. Will carry mainly VFR category
ceilings and visibilities into Tuesday, with a possible vicinity
thunder mention Tuesday afternoon. Any storms should be scattered
in nature, with brief heavy rain and MVFR/IFR visibilities
possible.

May see light fog later tonight into early Tuesday morning, with
light winds and a moist airmass lingering. Presence of middle to
high clouds may limit dense fog chances to low lying areas. Winds
will become southwest to west on Tuesday, remaining rather light.

Wood

.MARINE...

Recent MODIS imagery from Sunday continued to show the effect of
recent upwelling of cooler waters in the nearshore waters. MODIS
estimated lake surface temperatures mostly in the low to mid 60s,
while mid-lake temperatures were measured in the low to mid 70s.

Light wind regime will continue through tonight. Onshore winds of
mostly 5 to 10 knots are expected today, becoming offshore
tonight. Lingering warm, humid air over cooler near shore waters
should continue to produce patchy fog and haze until cold front
passes through Tuesday night.

MBK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 300 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

TODAY and TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

A moderate zonal upper flow extends across Wisconsin today with
a weak ridge trying to briefly build into the south toward evening.
Weak upper divergence this afternoon and into tonight. Little in the
way of any 700 mb upward motion until later tonight. Southern
Wisconsin in in the northern fringe of a mid level ridge with an 850
mb ridge across the southern Great Lakes. Weak 850/700 mb winds.

700 mb RH remains low but does increase late tonight, especially
south. 850 mb dewpoints are around 15 Celsius south and west of
Madison but only around 3 Celsius near Lake Michigan. As a result
there is a tight gradient of Zero to 1 km CAPE this afternoon from
around 1100 Joules/kg along the Illinois border and west of Madison
to less than 150 Joules/KG near Sheboygan.

Patchy dense fog is possible, but more clouds and a weak wind
has limited a lot of the fog to mainly northeast areas.

Any dense Fog should mix out by mid/late morning, which should give
mainly scattered cumulus, and a warm day. Light winds will become
easterly during the afternoon near Lake Michigan. However the GFS
has a cap around 20 Joules/kg just below 850 mb with fairly dry air
above. RAP soundings have the cap weakening. Surface based CAPE is
around 2200 Joules/kg, so an isolated thunderstorm is possible in
the high CAPE region, but lack of forcing will limit the
possibility.

There will be a small chance of thunderstorms tonight as upper
forcing increases a little along with column moistening and elevated
CAPE is around 1000 Joules/kg.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - Confidence...Medium
Warm and humid airmass will be in place ahead of frontal boundary
dropping in from the north. Mid level flow will be from the
northwest with no pronounced shortwave within the flow. However the
250 jet strengthens a bit just to our north with some divergence
noted with this jet segment that is proggd to be situated ahead of
the mid/upper level trough axis. Low level forcing will contribute
to a good deal of this lift with the absence of the mid level
shortwave. ECMWF MLCAPE progd to rise to near 1000 j/kg. 0-6km Bulk
shear and 700/500 lapse rates are not impressive. However the
instability combined with the surface/850 lift should be enough to
get some storms going with SPC having the CWA in a Marginal Risk at
this time. Still some uncertainty on convective evolution and timing
with various solutions in this regard. Quite the disparity in the
MOS POPs as well with the NAM showing a dry bias and the GFS a wet
one. Will use the Superblend approach for now in the handling of the
POPs. The cooler post-frontal airmass arrives later Tuesday night as
winds turn decidedly from the north and northeast with some
gustiness expected esp in the eastern CWA in closer proximity to
Lake Michigan.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY - Confidence...Medium
A cool pattern sets up with srn WI situated on western periphery of
large scale upper trough across the eastern Lakes/NE US. Low level
thermal trough showing some chilly temps at 850/925. In fact, seeing
some single digit celsius readings at 850 Wednesday night into
Thursday. Given the warm lake waters and the cooler 850 temps seeing
some delta t values into the teens so at least supportive of a bit
more cloud cover. For now will keep any mention of lake effect
sprinkles/shra out of forecast, but something to monitor for later
Wednesday night into Thursday when combo of favorable onshore traj
overlaps with peak min values within low level thermal trough. By
Friday the cool starts to ease with 588Dm mid level ridge sliding
across.

SATURDAY - Confidence...Medium
Appears that the influence of the mid level ridge will hold with a
return flow setting up in the low levels. The progs are showing a
southerly flow that results in further modification of the low level
thermal profile.

SUNDAY - Confidence...Low to Medium
Mid level ridge axis shifts to the east of WI with a southwest
regime taking hold. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a negative tilted
shortwave traversing western/northern WI with some DCVA affecting
the CWA. The 00z ECMWF keeps precip to our west with the wave while
the 00z GFS shows this spreading into the northwest CWA. Will retain
the Superblend approach which shows the better potential in the
northwest CWA. Southerly low level flow strengthens further with 925
temps rising to near 20c.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...With a bit more surface pressure gradient than
last night, that is keeping surface winds in the 5 knot range in
the west, and some high clouds, widespread dense fog formation is
still uncertain. Some dense fog is beginning to develop in the
northeast with lesser surface winds. Should see IFR/LIFR conditions
in northeast areas and patchy LIFR in river valleys elsewhere
until 14-15Z. VFR conditions expected after the fog lifts through
the end of the forecast. Scattered cumulus around 4 thsd ft this
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon over
south central Wisconsin and across the forecast area tonight.

MARINE...Light easterly winds and a moist boundary layer brings
prospects for fog back to the nearshore waters early this morning.
Web cams are not showing much fog at this time near shoreline.
Will keep mention of areas of fog but no marine fog advisory at
this time. Winds veer to the southeast...today...then south and
southwest late tonight with the approach of a surface trough. Wind
speeds and wave heights will remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through tonight.

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Wood/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...Collar

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 282037
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
335 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium.

Mainly scattered diurnal cumulus should linger until sunset, with
light easterly winds. Any convection to the south and southwest of
the forecast area will remain in those areas into this evening.

High pressure will slide slowly to the east tonight into Monday.
Decoupling winds and dew points remaining in the 60s should lead to
another good chance for fog later tonight into Monday morning, with
dense fog possible. Went with areas of fog, with patchy dense fog,
in the forecast for later tonight into early Monday morning.

More widespread dense fog is possible during this period, with not a
whole lot changing from last night. May see some low stratus
development with the fog as well. A headline may be needed by later
shifts for dense fog later tonight into early Monday morning.

It may take awhile during the morning hours for the fog and any low
stratus to dissipate across portions of the area. Things should
become partly sunny by the afternoon, with some diurnal cumulus
development in the warm and humid airmass. Went with highs in the
mid 80s inland, with mid 70s to around 80 lakeside.

Any convection Monday afternoon should remain south and southwest of
the area, as there is not much in the way of forcing for upward
vertical motion over the forecast area. Some uncertainty here, but
left the forecast dry for now.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium.

Focus of this period on small chance for convection developing ahead
and along cold front that will be moving through southern WI Tue
aftn/eve. Column moisture will remain in place until the front
moves through, with precipitable water values remaining 1.25 to 1.5
inches. Synoptic scale forcing remains weak Monday night through
Tuesday night. Thinking best chance for convection will be Tuesday
into early Tue evening when some increase in upper level divergence
affects southern WI due to strengthening right entrance region of
upper jet. 0-6km bulk shear to remain weak, below 20 kts, however
Cape likely to increase to over 1500 j/kg.

Some concern over weakly channeled vorticity spreading into southern
WI later Monday night at the same time as some weak low level
moisture flux convergence in the area. Added schc pops west of
Madison for late in the night.

Drier and less humid air will settle in late Tue night and Wed
behind departing cold front. Cooler temperatures are expected
beginning Wednesday. High temps likely to remain in the 70s on
Wednesday.

.EXTENDED PERIOD...

WEDENSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium
to High.

Good consistency and agreement in Medium Range guidance showing more
amplified weather pattern developing mid-week and persisting into at
least the start of the holiday weekend. Amplifying longwave
troffing over eastern Pacific and western CONUS will move slowly
eastward later in the week. Downstream blocking ridge will expand
into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes which will result in
dry and comfortable conditions for much of this extended period. A
reinforcing push of cooler air in strengthening northwest flow will
drop 925h temps into the 12 to 16C range on Thu and Fri. Pending
sunshine, daytime temps may only peak in the low to mid 70s both
days, with warmer temps returning over the weekend. A few low spots
may fall below 50 Thursday night.

Tropical system still expected to affect southeast CONUS slowing
down steering level pattern change across Upper Midwest over the
weekend. Hence upstream ejection of mid-level short wave from long
wave trof delayed in helping to flatten ridge and may not bring a
chance for precipition to southern WI until Sat night or Sunday.
However, noticed 12z ECMWF not nearly as amplified with this feature
crossing FL late in the week. Will watch other medium range guidance
to see if this trend continues. Enjoy the great weather this
upcoming week!

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Scattered diurnal cumulus should dissipate by early evening across
TAF sites. VFR conditions should prevail for a time this evening,
with light winds.

Another round of fog, with dense fog possible, should occur by later
this evening into Monday morning. High pressure moving slowly east
of the area will bring light/calm winds once again, with a moist
airmass lingering. Visibilities below alternate minimums, down to
1/2 to 1 mile, seem reasonable between 06Z and 14Z Monday. It may
begin earlier than that.

1/4 mile or less visibilities are possible with dense fog, but may
leave out of 00Z TAFs for now, until better handle on timing and
areal extent is attained. May also see low stratus develop with the
fog, with very low ceilings near airport minimums. Some uncertainty
here as well, so will keep any low clouds scattered for now.

Once the fog and low stratus mix out by late morning on Monday, the
rest of the day should be VFR category, with scattered to broken
diurnal cumulus cloud development. Light southeast to south winds
are expected.

.MARINE...

Nearshore waters will remain in a light wind regime through Monday.
Moist air over the cool nearshore waters will result in periods of
fog, possibly into Monday night. Best shot will be later tonight
into Monday morning, and again Monday night.

MODIS satellite imagery of sea surface temperatures still show mid
to upper 50s lake temperatures in the nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan along the Sheboygan and Ozaukee County shoreline, with
lower to mid 60s south of there. Given the mid 60s dew points
expected later tonight into Monday morning, there should be fog,
with patchy dense fog. More widespread dense fog may develop, and a
headline may be needed in later forecasts.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...None.
LM...None.

$$
TONIGHT AND MONDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...Wood
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...Kavinsky

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 281554 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1054 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.UPDATE...

Area of low stratus and fog still hanging around from west to east
across the central portions of the forecast area. This should
continue to slowly erode and mix out into the early afternoon
hours, as daytime heating continues. May still see some scattered
to broken diurnal cumulus development, though not confident in
this occurring.

High pressure will slide east across the area today, then slowly to
the east tonight into Monday. Decoupling winds and dew points
remaining in the 60s should lead to another good chance for fog
later tonight into Monday morning, with dense fog possible. Will
continue to evaluate potential, and the need for a headline.

Easterly winds are expected this afternoon near Lake Michigan,
which will keep temperatures there a little cooler than inland. As
long as low clouds mix out early this afternoon, highs should get
into the upper 70s to lower 80s inland, per 925 mb temperatures.

Wood

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

Fog and low stratus clouds should gradually mix out by early
afternoon across Madison, Waukesha and Milwaukee, with VFR
conditions expected this afternoon. Winds will become easterly at
the eastern sites this afternoon, and southeast at Madison. May
see scattered to broken diurnal cumulus develop, but uncertainty
exists with this occurring.

Another round of fog, with dense fog possible, should occur by
later this evening into Monday morning. High pressure moving
slowly east of the area will bring light/calm winds once again,
with a moist airmass lingering. Visibilities below alternate
minimums, down to 1/2 to 1 mile, seem reasonable between 06Z and
14Z Monday. It may begin earlier.

1/4 mile or less visibilities are possible with dense fog, but
may leave out of 18Z TAFs for now, until better handle on timing
and areal extent is attained. May also see low stratus develop
with the fog, with very low ceilings near airport minimums.

Once the fog and low stratus mix out by middle to late morning on
Monday, the rest of the day should be VFR category with scattered
to broken diurnal cumulus cloud development.

Wood

.MARINE...

Nearshore waters will remain in a light wind regime through
Monday. Moist air over the cool nearshore waters will result in
periods of fog, possibly into Monday night.

Enough breaks in the clouds last night to get a MODIS snapshot of
the lake surface temps around 07z. Lake surface temps at the time
were mostly in the mid 50s to mid 60s, with a cool spot in the
lower 50s offshore of the Ozaukee/Sheboygan county line. Surface
dew points wl remain in the 60s, resulting in areas of fog.

Light and variable winds will turn light onshore late this
morning and early afternoon, and then veer back to predominantly
offshore tonight. The fog may become dense tonight.

MBK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence is medium.

A strong shortwave just north of Lake Superior will move east
northeast with Southern Wisconsin in the right entrance region of
the weakening upper jet as it moves off into southeast Canada.
Then a weak zonal flow extends across southern Wisconsin tonight.
Little in the way of any 700 mb upward motion until towards
sunrise in areas northwest of Madison.

700 mb west winds diminish this morning and remain light through
tonight as a weak 700/850 mb ridge builds back across southern
Wisconsin. 700 mb RH remains low but does increase a little north
areas late tonight.

Dense Fog should mix out by mid/late morning, which should give
mainly scattered cumulus, and a warm day. Light winds will become
easterly during the afternoon near Lake Michigan.

Forecast soundings show zero to 1 km CAPE increases to around 700
Joules/kg this afternoon, but has a cap around 850 mb, along with
dry air above the cap. Therefore do not expect much potential for
showers. limited moisture below the cap and this dries tonight.

As a result expect fog potential again tonight.

MONDAY - Confidence...Medium
Surface high shifts a bit to the east into the eastern Lakes. 850
high proggd vcnty of se WI or ne IL. Light wind regime likely to
allow for some morning fog. 591DM broad mid level ridging is
expected. So will keep POPS quiet...in the single digits per MOS.
925 temps rise just a smidge into the lower 20s celsius with a
better hint of a return flow.

TUESDAY - Confidence...Medium
Surface/850 boundary expected to focus a chance of shra/tsra. Mid
level flow becomes more cyclonic from the northwest though better
vorticity resides to the northeast and southwest of the CWA. So
expect low level convergence acting upon instability axis ahead of
the front to be the primary focus mechanism for convection. Main
cool push arrives Tuesday night as 925 winds turn northwest and
eventually northeast.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY - Confidence...Medium
Shaping up to be a rather quiet with dominating surface high. Low
level thermal trough will be in place with 925 temps both Thursday
and Friday in the low to mid teens celsius. Surface high shifts east
on Saturday to allow for a return flow and a moderation in the 925
thermal pattern to the upper teens or lower 20s celsius.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Widespread IFR/LIFR in fog/stratus expected
early this morning. Vsbys will improve to VFR with morning mix-out
by mid/late morning. Winds will be light through the period with
low-level moisture bringing another good chance for fog by
midnight tonight into Monday morning.

MARINE...Will see areas of fog as high low-level moisture moves
over the cooler waters of the lake trough early morning. Expect
light east winds by afternoon.

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Wood/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz
Monday THROUGH Saturday...Collar

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 261709 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.UPDATE...

Extensive area of middle to high clouds continues to slide
northeast into the area. This should continue this afternoon into
this evening, with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected. There
may be some diurnal cumulus in the sunnier areas as well. Lake
breeze already occurring around Milwaukee and south, and will
continue this afternoon.

Scattered showers continue to fall apart as they approach the
area from the southwest, as there is a good amount of dry air
below 10000 feet above ground level. Thus, any shower activity
should hold off this afternoon.

12Z model runs continue to differ somewhat with the location of
the low level jet nose and focused warm air advection tonight into
Saturday morning. The NAM is the furthest to the northwest of the
area, with the Canadian focused over the area, and the GFS
between them. All models do bring some QPF across the area later
tonight into Saturday morning.

The mesoscale models are showing a similar trend with bringing a
round of showers and storms through the area later tonight into
early Saturday morning. Thus, will continue the higher end POPs
for this period, perhaps raising them up to categorical in at
least the western counties.

Precipitation chances Saturday afternoon are still rather murky,
as it will depend on clouds clearing the area after the warm front
moves to the north. There will be modest deep layer bulk shear
with weak to modest mean layer CAPE, assuming some clearing of the
clouds.

There will still be some upper divergence from the right rear
quadrant of the 250 mb jet streak lingering, and some of the
mesoscale models develop isolated to scattered convection in or
west of the area later in the afternoon. Marginal severe risk and
marginal heavy rainfall risk exists in parts of the area Saturday.
For now, will continue chance POPs for the afternoon hours.

Wood

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and evening across TAF
sites. Lake breeze this afternoon will turn winds east to
southeast at Milwaukee and Kenosha, probably reaching Waukesha as
well. Light and variable winds are expected at Madison. Some
diurnal cumulus is possible in the sunnier areas this afternoon.

Otherwise, middle to high clouds will gradually thicken through
the afternoon and evening. Should see a period of on and off
showers and thunderstorms later tonight into early Saturday
morning across TAF sites, as warm and moist air pushes north into
the area with a warm front. Should see MVFR ceilings and
visibilities at times, down to around 1000 feet and 3 miles.

Winds will become easterly by later tonight, gradually veering
south to southeast on Saturday. Should see a lull in the
precipitation later Saturday morning into the afternoon. May see
more scattered showers and storms later Saturday afternoon into
the evening, but too uncertain at this time to mention in TAFs.

Wood

.MARINE...

Light wind regime will result in northwest winds turning onshore
late this morning and early afternoon. Wind speeds will remain in
the 5 to 10 knot range, with lower wave heights.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected to affect
the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan late tonight into Saturday
morning. Warm and more humid air will return to the region.

Recent offshore winds continued to reinforce colder upwelling
waters in the shallower nearshore waters. Atwater Beach buoy
measuring a lake surface temperature of 48 degrees, while recent
MODIS imagery measured lake surface temps in the 50s across the
nearshore waters, while mid-lake temps remain in the lower 70s.

MBK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence is medium.

High pressure will move across WI today although scattered to broken
cirrus will occur due to swly flow aloft and the upstream
convection. The high clouds will probably keep temps down a degree
or two along with an afternoon lake breeze as well. Highs in the mid-
upper 70s for today.

For tonight, a shortwave trough will track from NE to srn MN. A wave
of low pressure will follow into IA with a sly 30 kt LLJ moving into
srn WI. The models differ on the exact placement of the LLJ with
some focusing farther west than others. Confidence is such to go
with likely PoPs over south central WI with high chance PoPs in ern
WI. PWs will rise to 1.5-1.8 inches with the thetae advection while
elevated CAPE will be very minimal due to mid level lapse rates of
5.5-6.0 C/KM. The showers and storms that do occur should have
moderate to heavy rainfall rates but will likely be brief.

SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Showers/storms will be likely across southern Wisconsin Saturday
as the first wave lifts northward. This first round may be limited
to the morning...with a break possible late morning into the
afternoon between waves. Another wave may then bring more storms
late afternoon into the evening. Overall, models not in great
agreement with timing and placement of convection. Though
confidence is on the higher end that there will be showers/storms
on Saturday, not nearly as confident in the timing at this point.

Should see near normal temps on Saturday.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast confidence...Medium

Deeper moisture will be south of the area on Sunday, so went
mainly dry. Should be a pleasant day.

Near zonal flow Monday will transition to northwest flow between a
ridge building to the west and an upper low passing through well
to the northeast. Could see a couple weak waves move through the
forecast area...so kept some pops going into mid-week.

By Wednesday, the ECMWF and Canadian push the bulk of moisture
and instability south and west of the forecast area. The GFS
remains moist and unstable Wed and Thu. Kept some pops per the
GFS, but would be dry if the ECMWF/Canadian solutions pan out.

Should see temps a bit above normal through Tuesday. There is less
certainty beyond that due to the previously mentioned model
differences for Wed/Thu. Generally kept temps in between the
warmer GFS and cooler ECMWF/Canadian solutions.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions today and this evening with only sct-bkn cirrus today
with a mid level deck of clouds for the evening. After midnight,
scattered to numerous showers and tstorms are expected to develop as
a warm front approaches from the sw. Cigs will lower and may become
MVFR toward sunrise or afterward. Cigs and vsbys will be reduced
with any showers and storms.

MARINE...

Relatively light winds and low wave heights are expected for today
and the weekend over the western shore of Lake MI. A lake breeze is
expected this afternoon with esely winds continuing tonight and
Saturday.

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Wood/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 220832
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
332 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is High.

A quiet period is expected through tonight. Low level ridge axis
will shift to the east this morning, allowing low level winds to
increase from the south. Plenty of sunshine and south winds will
result in a warmer day, with temperatures recovering back to
around seasonal normals for mid-August.

Winds will veer to the south to southeast by Lake Michigan this
afternoon, causing temperatures at the shore to stabilize, and
likely even slip a few degrees, due to cooler nearshore waters.

Low level jet will be focused to the west today, and to the north
tonight, as mid-level high pressure ridge builds briefly back
into the region. Possible some mid or high clouds may graze
southern WI this aftn and tonight, as warm air and mid-level
moisture surges in from the Central Plains.

Despite light boundary layer winds over western CWA, and low
dew point depressions, seeing very little fog development on
webcams and surface observations. Hence wl confine fog mention to
WI River valley, and far west closer to low level ridge axis
early this morning.

.TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models remain in good agreement with showing a 500 mb ridge
sliding northeast through the region on Tuesday. A tightening
pressure gradient should result in increasing south winds. High
pressure will remain to the southeast of the region. This should
continue to bring warmer air into the region. Area forecast
soundings are still fairly dry on Tuesday, so kept forecast dry.
May see winds back southeast along the lake in the afternoon.

Models then are in decent agreement with bringing a 500 mb
shortwave trough northeast into Wisconsin late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. In addition, a low level jet nose at 850 mb
points into eastern Iowa into northern Illinois later Tuesday
night, before weakening and shifting to the east Wednesday
morning.

Area forecast soundings show a quick moistening of the air column
late Tuesday night, lingering into Wednesday morning. There is
some elevated CAPE with modest deep layer shear. Increased POPs
into likely category by Wednesday morning across most of the area.

Cold front then moves east through the region Wednesday afternoon
and evening, then off to the east by later Wednesday night.
Frontogenesis response with the front is fairly weak during this
time. Still, adjusted area forecast soundings show some mean
layer CAPE again, with modest deep layer shear.

Continued likely POPs into the afternoon, with POPs lowering
Wednesday night. Precipitation during this time may be more
scattered in nature, with the weaker upward vertical motion
fields.

Storm Prediction Center has area in Marginal Risk for severe
storms on Wednesday/Wednesday night. Given the modest deep layer
shear and modest CAPE, this seems reasonable. However, any cloud
cover with the precipitation may limit CAPE values.

In addition, heavy rainfall may be possible during this time, as
several parameters are favorable. Precipitable water values reach
2.00 inches on both NAM and GFS for Wednesday. A lot will depend
on how unstable it gets, as well as how strong the shear and
storm propagation gets. Warm and humid conditions are expected.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

GFS/ECMWF are showing cold air advection behind the front for
Thursday, with high pressure pushing east across the region
Thursday night and Friday. This should bring a period of quiet
weather, with less humid conditions.

These models then bring a 500 mb shortwave trough northeastward
into Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Sunday, with southwest
flow across the region Friday night into Saturday night. Most of
the QPF with the warm air advection remains just west of the area
Friday night, then shifts into the area Saturday into Sunday.

For now, will continue to have POPs for showers and storms for
most of this period. Friday night may end up dry, if the models
continue to trend westward with QPF and forcing for upward
vertical motion during that period. Warm and humid conditions
should prevail during this time.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions expected for the period. Some light fog may affect
TAF sites early this morning, but any visibility restriction will
be brief, not more than an hour or two. Better boundary layer
mixing should prevent significant fog later tonight, despite
slightly higher low level relative humidity.

.MARINE...

A quiet period through Tuesday, with winds turning onshore late
this morning or early afternoon. With the backing winds, Lake
Michigan lake surface temperatures should rebound back into the
mid 60s to lower 70s, as the cooler upwelling waters currently in
the nearshore waters gradually warm.

MODIS image from Sunday evening measured the lake surface
temperature anywhere from the mid 50s at the shore off of Ozaukee
and Sheboygan counties, to the upper 60s toward the open waters.

Tightening pressure gradient ahead of a cold front will cause
increasing south to southeast winds Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Gusts will approach Small Craft Advisory levels during this
period.

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...Wood

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 210831
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
331 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Weak low pressure trof rotating around departing southern Canada
low pressure, and low level cold air surge, will bring a period
of lower clouds to southern WI this morning. A light shower or
sprinkle may affect northeast CWA. Weak forcing slides off to the
east late this morning.

However, sct-bkn cumulus likely to redevelop in lingering moist,
cyclonic flow. May be just enough instability to set off a few
isold -shra over ern CWA in the early to mid aftn. Otherwise,
cyclonic flow flattens late today into tonight, as upper level
jet axis shifts east of the area, and thermal trof slides off to
the east as well.

Hence, expect mostly clear skies for tonight. Boundary layer
winds will weaken enough to allow patchy fog to develop over far
western areas late tonight, with widespread fog in the WI river
valley. Clouds and cooler air in place will hold daytime temps
peaking in the low to mid 70s, with 50s tngt.

.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are in decent agreement with trends Monday into Tuesday.
Zonal flow at 500 mb transitions into a ridge during this period.
At the surface, high pressure southeast of the region allows for
south to southwest winds to develop, as the pressure gradient
tightens somewhat. This brings some warm air advection into the
region. Area forecast soundings remain fairly dry during this
period. Thus, quiet weather with warming temperatures and
increasing dew points are expected during this time.

Models show a little more uncertainty for Tuesday night, as they
differ on the timing with the next 500 mb shortwave trough sliding
northeast into the region. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF bring this feature
into southwest Wisconsin by 12Z Wednesday with light QPF in the
western counties. The Canadian is slower amd keeps the area dry.
Area forecast soundings show moisture advection into the region
helping bring a rather moist adiabatic lapse rate profile, with
some modest elevated CAPE. Continued to bring in chance POPs for
Tuesday night in forecast.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

The GFS/ECMWF bring the 500 mb shortwave trough northeast through
the region Wednesday morning, with the cold front sliding east
through the area later Wednesday into Wednesday night, exiting to
the east Thursday. GFS forecast soundings showing decent mean
layer CAPE at times, with steadily increasing deep layer shear as
the front approaches the area.

Continued the consensus POPs for thunder Wednesday into Wednesday
night, then lowering Thursday with some lingering showers. Warm
and humid conditions are expected during this period.

High pressure should then build into the region Thursday night
into Friday night, bringing less humid conditions and a period of
quiet weather. Chances for precipitation return Saturday, with
next system shifting northeast into the region. More uncertainty
exists this far out in the forecast, so stayed close to consensus
POPs and temperatures.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Period of MVFR cigs likely to affect TAF sites this morning, as
low pressure short wave trof moves southeast through srn WI. Small
chance for a brief light shower or sprinkle, mainly north of TAF
sites. Expect sct-bkn cu to reform for several hours, after weak
short wave forcing slides southeast of the area later this
morning. Hence, not expecting significant clearing until mid
afternoon or later.

.MARINE...

Will continue Small Craft Advisory through mid-morning. Still
receiving recent observations of west to northwest wind gusts of
20 to 25 knots just offshore, including Racine Reef Light and
Atwater Buoy. Gradually weakening pressure gradient will allow
wind gusts to fall below 22 knots later this morning into the
afternoon.

Offshore winds will continue through tonight, with winds backing
to the south on Monday. Latest MODIS imagery shows that the
offshore winds have resulted in upwelling of cooler subsurface
water along the near shore waters. Lake surface temp has cooled
into the 50s.

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning for LMZ643>646.

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Monday THROUGH Saturday...Wood

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 101455 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
955 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

.UPDATE...

Quiet weather will continue today under the western periphery of
high pressure. Temps and dewpoints will be a little warmer today,
with forecast values seeming to be on track.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

Scattered to broken ceilings around 4-5 kft continue toward the
Illinois border this morning. Elsewhere, diurnal cumulus will
likely develop by later this morning.

It will remain quiet into tonight, with a few showers or storms
possible northwest of Madison later tonight as a low pressure
system approaches. A little fog is not of the question again
tonight, but not expecting widespread fog as high pressure
continues to shift eastward.

The chance for showers and storms will increase on Thursday,
especially in the northwest forecast area. Storms are then likely
Thursday evening/night as low moves into the area.

.MARINE...

Latest MODIS imagery showed Lake MI surface temp has risen into the
low to mid 70s across the nearshore waters out to mid-lake. Little
upwelling expected until the weekend when winds turn predominately
west to northwest. Hence water temperatures expected to remain mild
next several days. Average Lake MI temperature running about two
degrees above the long-term average for early August.

Land-based heating expected to result in a lake breeze developing
over the near shore and shore areas late this morning and early
afternoon. Wind speeds expected to rise mostly to 8 to 10 knots
with a few gusts potentially of 13-15 knots. Next chance for
precipitation Thursday night into Friday morning when weak cold
front moves through the area.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 316 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Light winds and dew points in the middle to upper 60s should allow
for light fog to form across the area early this morning, with more
concentrated fog in low lying areas. This fog should dissipate by
middle morning.

Quiet weather is expected today, with warm and humid conditions.
Winds should shift onshore near Lake Michigan by late morning and
linger in the afternoon. This should keep temperatures there down a
bit. Inland areas should reach the upper 80s for highs today. Heat
index values should be in the lower to middle 90s inland. Scattered
to broken diurnal cumulus clouds should develop by afternoon inland.

00Z model runs are now keeping the northwestern areas dry later
tonight. It seems like the best forcing for upward vertical motion
will remain to the west later tonight. Kept low POPs in the forecast
for now in the northwest, but these may need removal later on, if
dry look to models continues.

There should be more light fog development later tonight across the
area, as winds become relatively light with dew points in the upper
60s to around 70. Lows tonight will be similar.

THURSDAY - Confidence...Medium
A very warm and very humid airmass will be in place and sustained by
a southerly lower level flow. 925 temps will be into the mid 20s
celsius and consensus of MOS numbers supports dew points in the
low to mid 70s. So rather uncomfortable. 591dm ridge axis
collapses somewhat as the day wears on with lower level forcing
tied to the surface/850 frontal boundaries will hold off to the
northwest of the cwa. With 850 LLJ starting to lean a bit more
into cwa and a slight indication of some dcva will keep mention of
tsra across mainly the western and northwest cwa as the day wears
on.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY - Confidence...Medium
Expecting an unsettled period as more vigorous shortwave activity
arrives along with the surface/850 millibar frontal boundaries. So
appears to be some decent lower level and mid/upper level forcing
working in concert. MLCAPE from the ecmwf shows values aoa 1000 j/kg.
250 millibar jet core progd to ride to our north with increasing
divergence noted in association with a the right rear quad of the
jet core. So will continue the trend of higher pops this period.
The slow movement of the front through the area into at least
Friday morning could result in some much needed rainfall across
srn WI.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY - Confidence...Medium
A cooler and drier air airmass will prevail in the wake of the
departed frontal boundary. The low level thermal trough will be
set up by Sunday and linger into Monday. Surface/850 ridging will
dominate while the mid level flow will be on the cyclonic side.
The ecmwf shows the strongest looking vort coming in late Saturday
night into Sunday morning with the GEM and GFS weaker with more of
an elongated/sheared appearance to this feature. Will stick with
the quiet Superblend pops at this time.

TUESDAY - Confidence...Medium
The GFS builds up a 588dm ridge while the ECMWF keeps the mid level
flow cyclonic with more weak waves passing through. Still the progs
keep the area dry with any precip more likely to our north or west.
Again, Superblend looks dry so will stick with it for now. With 925
flow likely to become either south or southwest, should see a little
bounce back in the low level thermal pattern so will likely
see temps nudge back into the 80s.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...May see light fog at TAF sites until middle
morning, with light winds and humid conditions. Otherwise, expect
VFR conditions today into this evening. Light south winds are expected
at Madison, with east southeast winds at the eastern sites. Scattered
to broken diurnal cumulus clouds are expected by late morning,
lingering into the afternoon.

Light winds are expected tonight, with clearing skies. Should see
more light fog later tonight at TAF sites, with visibilities down to
around 3 miles possible.

MARINE...East southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected today
across the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan. Waves will remain
in the 1 to 2 foot range. May see light fog develop over the lake
later tonight, with light winds and a humid airmass in place.
Could see more light fog at times into Friday, with the warm and
humid airmass over the area. Winds should be high enough to
prevent dense fog formation.

A passing cold front Thursday night into Friday will likely bring
thunderstorms to the area. Winds and waves will remain below Small
Craft Advisory levels into Friday.

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

UPDATE...DDV/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Wood
Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...Collar

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 071019
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
619 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across
Pennsylvania early next week, then move off the east coast during
the second half of next week. A slow-moving cold front will
likely push into the state by next weekend.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early am MODIS imagery showing patchy in the valleys of western
Pa, the result of cool temps/calm wind and much warmer river/stream
water. Latest HRRR suggests any fog will burn off by 13Z.

Sfc high and assoc dry air mass building into Pa will bring mostly
sunny skies to the region today with blw avg humidity for August.
A weak shortwave approaching the area has produced a few shra
as it crossed the warm waters of Lk Erie early this morning, but
air mass across Pa is likely too dry to support any showers. 8h
temps nr 15C should translate to max temps from the u70s ovr the
Alleghenies, to the m80s across the Susq Valley.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Center of sfc high will drift across upstate NY tonight, resulting
in another night of efficient radiational cooling, esp across the
n mtns. SREF and downscaled NAM both indicate patchy fog will form
in the deep river/stream valleys north of I-80 with lows in the
m50s. Mins btwn 60-65F expected across the southern half of the
state.

All mdl data tracks a shortwave across Pa on Monday, but 0-3km lyr
will remain quite dry, so nothing more than some passing cirrus
expected. Ens mean 8h temps support seasonal high temps btwn
80-85F over most of Central Pa.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As sfc high drifts off the east coast on Tuesday, an increasingly
humid SE flow will result in a fair amt of aftn cu and perhaps an
isold pm tsra across the Allegheny Mtns. 00Z NAEFS/ECENS showing
a building subtropical ridge over the eastern CONUS by the middle
of next week with temps rising abv seasonal norms. 00Z GEFS shows
Pa lying within ribbon of higher PWATs on northern periphery of
upper ridge, likely supporting sct diurnally-driven pm convection
Wed-Fri. All med range guidance indicating a slow-moving cold
front will press se into the area by next weekend, so have gone
with somewhat higher Pops next Saturday.

ECENS/NAEFS mean 8h temps rebound to near 20C Wed-Sat, which
should support max temps above 90 in the valley locations.

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high building in has dropped dewpoints into the 50s
areawide. So VFR conditions will continue overnight, though
isolated reductions possible just before sunrise - mainly in
locales that received rain over the past 24hrs. Winds will be
light.

The dry air should provide several days of excellent flying
weather with VFR dominating through at least Tuesday.

Outlook...

Sun-Tue...No sig wx expected.

Wed...Isold MVFR restrictions poss in afternoon shra/tsra.

Thu...Sct MVFR restrictions poss in afternoon shra/tsra.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...RXR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KTFX 020329
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
928 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
No update necessary tonight. High pressure continues to provide dry
and stable conditions. MODIS satellite imagery continues to show
some smoke from Idaho wildfires making its way into southwest
Montana. Temperatures look good.

.AVIATION...
Updated 2335Z.
High pressure aloft will continue to provide dry and stable
conditions. West to northwest winds have been gusty at some
locations but will decrease after 03z. VFR conditions prevail.

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 336 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2016

Monday afternoon through Wednesday...The upper level low over
northern Saskatchewan will continue to lift NE into Hudson Bay
tonight allowing a s/w ridge to briefly build into Montana.
Outside of an isolated shower or storm near the Little Rockies
this afternoon, this should keep the forecast area precip-free
through Tuesday morning.

Late Tuesday into Wednesday, a potent upper level low will move
through the region. At the SFC, an area of low pressure and
associated cold front will move across the CWA Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Moisture with this low looks limited at this
time and mainly confined along and north of the low track (ie.
from the Hi-Line north into Canada). How much moisture can be
pulled into our northern counties remains uncertain and may
ultimately determine whether we can get much t-storm development
on this side of the International Border. That said, forecast
soundings indicate more than adequate shear in that area late
Tuesday into Tuesday evening, so any storm that can develop will
have the potential to become strong to severe with damaging winds
and large hail the main threats. Again, though, the threat may be
tampered by how much moisture can be pulled into the area.

The other issue with this front will be the wind. A lighter
south/SE wind will develop ahead of the low Tuesday afternoon,
then quickly shift to the west late Tuesday afternoon through
Tuesday night from west to east. Across the plains of north-
central Montana, wind gusts of 30-45 mph are likely. The strong
winds combined with drier air may lead to some elevated fire
concerns. However, at this time there is some uncertainty
regarding just how dry it will get and for this reason, will hold
off on any fire weather highlights for Wednesday afternoon.
Something to keep a close eye on, though. Temperatures will warm
to above normal Tuesday afternoon, then drop down below normal on
Wednesday behind the front. Martin

Wednesday night through Monday...Upper level low looks to move
east across southern Canada Wednesday night...ending breezy winds
and chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms from west to
east across the forecast area. Ridge of high pressure with weak
and dry flow moves across the region for Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures will warm each day back into the 80s...with the
mentioned dry air dropping afternoon RH values back into the teens
to low 20s. No precipitation is expected for Thursday. Friday will
see a switch to a more south southeasterly flow...possibly gusty
at times. This southerly flow will also bring with it a slight
increase of monsoonal moisture. Only southern parts of the CWA
will have enough to support chances for thunderstorms on
Friday...but this southerly flow could start to prime the
atmosphere for this weekend. A closed upper level low in western
Canada extends a large trough across the west coast for Saturday.
This will help bring more monsoonal moisture across the region.
Along with that...se flow continues at the sfc advecting more
moisture into the region. With low to moderate instability...the
upper level disturbance...and increased moisture...isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will be possible across much of the CWA on
Saturday. The upper level trough will then push across the region
on Sunday. A developing sfc low in southern MT could even tap into
some limited gulf moisture across eastern portions of the
CWA...possibly bringing dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s. Much like
Saturday...isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible
across much of the CWA. Exact timing and location of these weekend
storms is difficult to predict this far out...so put widespread
slight chance in across the area. With only moderate levels of
shear...a few isolated stronger storms may be possible this
weekend...and mainly confined to eastern portions of the CWA where
models are indicating higher dewpoints may enter into the CWA. The
trough will then move northeast through Montana on
Monday...keeping a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over
the forecast area. Similar temperatures to those previously
mentioned on Thursday and Friday will continue through the weekend
into Monday. Anglin/Coulston

.FIRE WEATHER...
On Tuesday, temperatures will become quite warm with continued very
dry air, especially in the central and southwest fire zones (117 and
118). However, a light easterly flow on the northern and eastern
plains (zones 112, 113, 115) should keep humidity values there a bit
higher. A cold front is then expected to sweep east across the
region Tuesday evening/overnight. Winds may increase some in the
deeper mixed pre-frontal environment late Tuesday afternoon, but at
this point the timing of the front is not optimal for gusty winds
during the peak afternoon heating period.
Gusty west winds will sweep east behind the front Tuesday night
through Wednesday. Temperatures cool and humidity improves Tuesday
night through Wednesday, though some locations across SW MT may
still see afternoon RH fall to near 20% Wednesday afternoon.
Because the driest conditions and strongest winds do not seem to
coincide at this time, am not anticipating a need for fire
weather highlights at this time, but will continue to monitor the
situation for possible timing adjustments.
Hoenisch/Coulston

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 51 90 53 75 / 0 0 10 10
CTB 46 85 52 68 / 0 10 20 20
HLN 54 94 57 79 / 0 10 10 0
BZN 48 92 49 80 / 0 10 10 0
WEY 42 81 45 73 / 10 10 10 0
DLN 48 88 48 78 / 0 10 0 0
HVR 50 91 57 75 / 0 0 20 20
LWT 53 87 54 75 / 0 10 10 10

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

weather.gov/greatfalls

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 180823
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
323 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT... Forecast confidence - Medium to High.

Weak frontal boundary has just about exited far southeast WI early
this morning. Light surface winds have become mostly west to
northwest which are ushering in slightly lower humidity and
dewpoints. Just above the surface, winds a bit more robust from the
northwest at 10 to 20 knots, lowering the humidity aloft as well.
Low level mixiness also helping to prevent significant fog
development early this morning despite Sunday rainfall. A quiet
period is expected through tonight, but passing cloudiness can be
expected time to time. Occasional passing high clouds due to cirrus
blowoff from upstream convection across northern IA/MN can be
expected into tonight. Also enough lingering low level rh will
contribute to some cumulus development later this morning and
afternoon.

With temperatures starting out mild, expect daytime temps to rebound
into the low to mid 80s. A developing lake breeze will cool shore
areas in the afternoon.

Expect elevated instability and baroclinic zone to remain upstream
across IA extending into central IL through tonight. Hence any
convection to remain to the west and south. Lighter boundary level
winds tonight will allow patchy late night fog to develop. Fog
should be more limited in parts of western CWA due to another bout
of cirrus blowoff affecting this area later tonight.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Surface high pressure will slide southeastward Tuesday, becoming
centered over the eastern Great Lakes by evening. The surface
high will continue to depart Wednesday, while an upper ridge
builds into the region. Will probably see a wave or two ride
through the top of the mid/upper ridge. Increasing moisture and
warm advection will combine with forcing from the waves to kick
off rounds of storms within the region. Models are coming into
better agreement wave timing/placement...suggesting Tuesday night
into Wednesday may be the best chance for storms.

Temps should be a couple/few degrees above normal Tue and Wed.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Could be another round or two of storms late in the week as
disturbances move through the northern periphery of the upper
ridge. Not great confidence in the low pops in the forecast, as it
could easily be dry Thursday and Friday due to capping under the
ridge.

Higher confidence Thu/Fri remains with temps, as models are
generally in good agreement that it will turn hot and humid.
Timing of any clouds and precip with the weak waves could
certainly throw a wrench in forecast temps either day. Given that
it looks mainly dry for late week though, kept the hot temps
going. Looking increasingly likely that heat headlines may be
needed for both days, with forecast heat indices in the 100 to 105
range.

.SATURDAY and SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The trough and associated cold front are expected to finally move
through on Saturday. Kept some pops going, though not very
impressed with the forcing suggested by models. Looks mainly dry
then Sunday as high pressure builds into the area.

Bumped temps up a bit Saturday with the slower progression of the
trough/front compared to model solutions 24 hours ago. Should see
temps return to near normal Sunday behind the departing front.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Weak frontal boundary exiting far southeast WI has ushered somewhat
less humid air across the area overnight. Light surface winds have
veered to the northwest most areas and surface dewpoints have
dropped a few degrees into the mid to upper 60s. Just off surface,
northwest winds increase to 10 to 20 knots. These conditions will
prevent significant fog from forming early this morning. VFR
conditions expected for the forecast period with few-sct cumulus
developing later this morning and afternoon. Patchy fog more of a
threat late tonight due to lighter boundary layer winds. May put in
some light fog in eastern TAF sites late, but expected high clouds
over western CWA should help prevent fog in this area.

.MARINE...

Much lighter winds are expected today. West to northwest winds will
become onshore late this morning and afternoon due to a light
pressure gradient and shore temperatures warming into the 80s.
Breezy southwest winds on Sunday following morning thunderstorms
resulted in upwelling of cooler water temperatures. The Atwater
Buoy located 1.25 miles off northern Milwaukee county continues to
measure water temperatures in the 40s early this morning, which
corresponds with MODIS satellite imagery from Sun aftn. The lighter
winds expected next 48 hours will allow water temperature to recover
in the shallower near shore areas.

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KHUN 170652
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
152 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A mostly clear sky combined with a moist near surface layer has
provided a favorable environment for valley fog development. IR
imagery (GOES and MODIS) are showing river valley fog in parts of
Jackson and DeKalb Counties in northeast AL and Franklin County in
TN. Observations at K4A9 and KMSL also indicate fog at this hour. The
fog should dissipate rather quickly after sunrise so will carry it
through ~13Z.

Water vapor imagery and stream flow vectors indicate a shortwave
trough has now pushed into central AL and GA, with slightly drier mid
and upper levels helping to clear the sky in the TN valley.
Nevertheless, forecast soundings indicate good potential for
convective instability to develop readily again today. The best
chance of thunderstorm development should take place along the higher
terrain in the southeast portion of our forecast area. Will go with a
chance POP in these areas, lowering to slight chance in our northwest
areas. Forecast CAPE values are not as high as Saturday, but given
some drier air in the mid and upper levels, some downdrafts could
produce gusty winds again today. Will go ahead and forecast patchy
fog again tonight given little change in atmospheric conditions
expected from what we see this morning.

Not much change in forecast thinking from yesterday with a broad
longitudinal ridge building across the southern U.S., which
strengthens into a well defined anti-cyclone over Kansas by Monday
into Tuesday. This places our area in an eastward extension of a ridge
axis. There will be considerable northwest flow bringing impulses
southeast through the Ohio Valley that may round the ridge to the
southwest and west into the deep South during the early part of this
week. This will help keep at least low chances of thunderstorms in
on Monday and Tuesday. The greater chance appears to be on Tuesday
when a "back door" cold front drops south or southwest from the Ohio
Valley with at least scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of it.
Will we see the considerably drier surface dew point air that the
GFS advects in behind this front on Thursday into Friday? The ECMWF
is less optimistic on lowering dew points as much as the GFS and
seems more reasonable. The 850 mb high position is also progged to
be right over middle TN and north AL on Thursday. So, it will
certainly be a hot weather period this week into next weekend. The
question will be the humidity and resulting heat index values. Those
will be highest in our NW Alabama counties which will flirt with 105
degrees, while other areas may experience mainly upper 90s to around
100 degrees.

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1231 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016)
For 06Z TAFs: Mostly clear skies continue at both TAF sites at this
time. Very light winds will continue and new model guidance shows
very little additional cloud cover developing. In fact, new guidance
suggests VSBYS dropping to between 1 and 3 miles after 17/08Z or
17/09Z. Skeptical that KHSV will drop that low, since they had very
little rain today at the terminal. Thus, VSBY values were dropped
into the MVFR category at KHSV and to IFR at KMSL. Although cigs
around 4000 feet will develop by 17/15Z, VFR conditions will
return/continue through the rest of the TAF period. An isolated tsra
is a possibility at both sites tomorrow afternoon, but left out due
to low confidence of development. If one affects the TAF sites, lower
CIGS and VSBYS are possible.

KTW

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville 93 73 94 73 / 30 20 20 20
Shoals 93 73 94 73 / 20 20 20 20
Vinemont 91 72 92 72 / 40 20 20 20
Fayetteville 92 72 93 72 / 30 20 20 20
Albertville 91 71 92 71 / 40 30 30 20
Fort Payne 90 70 92 70 / 40 30 30 20

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK68 PAFC 121756 CCA
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
956 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The closed upper level low continues to move eastward, and is
reflected at the surface as a weak low positioned over the lower
southwestern Gulf this morning. While, a 1008 mb low pressure
system is approaching the Southeast Panhandle near Sitka with a
100 knot southwesterly jet streaking just south of the Dixon
Entrance. The moisture from this system is streaming northward
bringing numerous showers into the northern Gulf coastal
communities, except for some moisture spilling over the mountains
with periods of light rain filtering into the Southcentral region.
While, another weak shortwave is over the Kuskokwim Delta, and is
reflected at the surface with a weak cyclonic circulation west of
Bethel. The radar imagery is picking this feature up well, and is
depicting the cyclonic circulation associated with this low. Plus,
numerous showers over the Kuskokwim Delta coastline from Kipnuk
northward, and scattered rain showers over the Kuskokwim
Mountains. The MODIS Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery is
picking up the low stratus along the southwest coastline from
Kipnuk eastward. This feature is being aided by the onshore flow
helping to transfer the stratus inland this morning. The Western
Aleutians have a comma cloud shield streaming from the Pacific
Ocean associated with the 1000 mb North Pacific Low located
southwest of Shemya.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement as the North Pacific Low
approaches Shemya, and as the ridge of high pressure builds into
the Bering Sea. Looks like the Southwest Alaska region will have a
nice warming trend as the high pressure builds, and begins to
extend into Southcentral Alaska area. Plus, the northwesterly
flow will result in drier conditions. The models in the Gulf keep
weak diffuse lows moving across the region keeping moisture mainly
along the coast. The forecast confidence is average as we head
into the early work week.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The surface flow will remain fairly weak through tonight with
surface ridging across the Bering and a trough along the eastern
Gulf. An upper level low currently centered near Kodiak drifts
slowly east across the southern gulf waters through the
afternoon. This system pinwheels easterly shortwaves across the
southern mainland and gulf bringing continued shower activity
until ridging builds in from the southwest which should diminish
rain activity by Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late
this afternoon and tonight along the Talkeetna Mountains during
peak heating, with the focus shifting to the mountains along the
Copper River on Monday as a thermal trough extends south from the
Yukon. Offshore flow develops across the Eastern Kenai on Monday
with gusty conditions developing early Tuesday. North to westerly
flow sets up across all of Southcentral by late Tuesday with
stronger gusts across channeled terrain and gap locations along
the coastal areas.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A showery regime will hang around for one more day before a much
drier, and then a warmer air mass comes around on Tuesday. Today
the forecast starts out with a strong shortwave trough withing the
larger cyclonic circulation taking up most of southern Alaska. The
steady rain over the Kuskokwim Delta will continue this morning,
mainly west of Bethel before tapering off this afternoon. The rest
of the mainland will see afternoon showers and thunderstorms
associated with the cold air aloft. The best chance for thunder to
accompany showers will be in eastern portions of the Bristol Bay
zone. That system exits to the east tonight and will be replaced
with a northwesterly flow regime aloft. Monday night into Tuesday
a disturbance in this flow will bring a chance of rain to northern
areas of the mainland. High pressure builds in on Tuesday bringing
much drier and warmer conditions.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
One front weakens over the Bering today, and another approaches.
The Eastern Aleutians will see spotty rain today as the front
overhead falls apart. Most of the Bering will see generally weak
westerly flow with some areas of fog. An east-west frontal
boundary will stretch across the north Pacific, and will spread
over the Western and Central Aleutians on Monday afternoon while
weakening. A triple point low pressure system will develop on this
front late Monday evening, affecting the Central and Eastern
Aleutians with steady moderate rainfall.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the long term period, a ridge over the Bering Sea will
be building ahead of a North Pacific low with a northerly
shortwave trough moving into the Gulf of Alaska. With the remnants
of the previous Gulf low moving southeast, this pattern will
promote strong offshore flow and rapid drying across southern
Alaska. Rapid warming will occur Tuesday with Wednesday and
Thursday looking to be the warmest days of the year thus far
across many locations as 850 hpa temperatures rise to 8 to 12C, 2
to 3 standard deviations above normal. By late Thursday into
Friday, uncertainty rises with respect the Bering low and how
quickly the front moves into southwest Alaska (and eventually
Southcentral). The ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian GDPS all differ with
respect to timing and how much phase interaction there is with the
subtropics, which impacts dramatically how quickly and how wet the
eventual front is as it moves eastward. For now, a WPC ensemble
approach was favored which features increasing trends for
precipitation and gradually moderating temps (back towards normal)
from the end of the week into the weekend.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...JA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 110836
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
336 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence - Medium.

Eastern IA convection continues to dwindle and sag southeast early
this morning. Hence expect widespread cirrus shield to thin and
dissipate. A humid day lies ahead with the added moisture from
Friday's rainfall and the lighter west to southwest winds helping to
keep dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. 925H temps rising to
around 25-26c and partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon should
help the mercury rise into the lower 90s most locations, even closer
to the lakeshore. The west winds should keep the lake breeze held
close to the lakeshore this afternoon. The combination of warm
temperatures and humidity will result in Heat Index values rising
into the mid to upper 90s, with a few southwest spots perhaps
briefly reaching 100. Too isolated at this point to post Heat
Advisory, plus some uncertainty regarding upstream high clouds
perhaps keeping daytime temperatures 1-2 degrees cooler. Both
Madison and Milwaukee will approach their record high temp for
today.

0-6km bulk shear expected to be weaker today, around 20kts but CAPE
values should rise to 2-3k joules, once weak capping inversion is
eclipsed early this afternoon. Will continue smaller chance for
thunderstorms in this afternoon due to expected instability and
passing weak boundary and potential weak lobe of mid-level vorticity
adding some synoptic lift. SPC has lowered severe threat to marginal
which seems reasonable considering lack of significant forcing and
shear.

Low level cold air surge will follow vigorous back door cold front
which will pass through southern WI tonight. 3 hour pressure rises
behind this front of 3 to 5 mb will result in some gusty winds by
the lake shore. However drier air settling into srn WI should
prevent convection from re-firing over most of the area as stronger
cold front sweeps through during the evening and overnight. Will
keep small pops in across the far southwest. Cooler, less humid
conditions return for Sunday, especially by the lake.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY... Forecast confidence is high.

Temperatures will be much cooler on Sunday in the wake of the cold
front. Lake-cooled air will lead to highs in the 60s lakeshore. The
ridging and warm temperatures will remain in place over the Midwest,
so highs are expected around 80 west of Madison. Dry air over
southern WI will keep the weather quiet for Sunday and Sunday
evening with decreasing clouds.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Dakotas and northern
MN on Sunday due to weak low pressure. The precip should track ESE
per the Corfidi vectors overnight into Monday. The weak cold front
with this system should slide south through the day and stall over
southern WI Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms could re-develop
along that boundary Monday afternoon/evening but forcing will be
very weak so confidence is not high.

Temperatures should climb back into the 80s Monday ahead of that
cold front.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

A mid level trough will close off over he upper Midwest later in the
week. This system will bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms to southern WI mainly Wednesday. Then clouds and
showers will linger through Thursday until the system can move out.
Ridging moves back in and the weekend looks fairly dry with
temperatures around normal for mid June.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

High clouds from persistent upstream convection over northeast IA
preventing fog from developing early this morning. Lack of low
level convergence also keeping low cloud development at bay. Hence
a mostly VFR period is expected. A thunderstorm will be possible
this afternoon and evening. A wind shift to the northeast will
accompany a cold front passing through this evening.

.MARINE...

Webcams not indicated any fog near the shore early this morning,
however threat for dense fog will persist today into this evening as
warm, humid air flows across cooler Lake MI. Recent buoys and MODIS
imagery indicating Lake MI water temp in the low to mid 50s while
surface dewpoints rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s today.

SW winds will likely back to the south to southeast over the near
shore waters later this morning and afternoon. However the lake
breeze should be held close to the shore by the expected WSW breezes
over the land.

Strong back door cold front will sweep rapidly south across the near
shore waters this evening, between 00z and 06z. Burst of north to
northeast winds immediately behind front may gust as high as 35
knots, but should quickly settle down to 33 knots or less. Looks
like the gusty winds over 22 knots will persist through the late
night along with building waves. Hence will post Small Craft
Advisory tonight into early Sunday for lingering high waves.

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday
for LMZ645-646.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday
for LMZ643-644.

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Sunday THROUGH Friday...MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 311830 RRA
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion...DELAYED
National Weather Service State College PA
230 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth tonight and
Wednesday. Increasing moisture will flow northward into
Pennsylvania for Thursday and Friday...bringing a better chance
for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms...ahead of
another relatively weak cold front. Saturday is expected to be dry
again...but wet weather may arrive for the second half of the
upcoming weekend.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Tiny shallow cumulus clouds are scattered about all of central PA
at this hour as per GOES East and MODIS imagery. Strong inversion
at 675 Mb is squashing vertical development so no expecting any of
these to produce anything of consequence.

Aside from thin high clouds streaming NEWD from the Ohio and
Tennessee River Valleys...skies will clear this evening and it
will be a comfortable night with a light NE breeze. Lows will
vary from around 50F across the northern border...to near 60F in
the valleys of Southern PA.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
With sfc high pressure tracking north and northeast of region on
Wednesday...another mostly sunny...warm and dry day is in store.
Comfortable dewpoints in the low 50s up north...and the mid and
upper 50s elsewhere...will combine with highs mostly in the lower
to middle 80s to bring another stellar day.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridge of high pressure should bring a mostly sunny Wednesday with
warm amd dry conditions aided by comfortable dewpoints in the low
50s up north...and the mid and upper 50s elsewhere.

Latest 00-06Z Models and ensembles show cold front moving into
the area late Thursday into Friday. 12Z NAM is showing large scale
flow to be less amplified and more zonal in a sense...so front not
likely to slow down quite as much for late Friday into Sat.

For Sunday into Monday...another weak system swings across the
area. Adjusted parameters to fit in with others. A slow cool
down as one heads into next weekend. At this time range...too
far out for not having some spread in model solutions from day
to day.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conds will prevail through tonight. Some patchy late night and early
morning fog is expected with mvfr restrictions. This will burn off
by 14z with VFR expected again throughout central PA.

OUTLOOK...

Wed...No sig wx. Local fog reductions poss around dawn.

Thu...A.M. cig reductions poss west. Chance of showers/tstms
west.

Fri...Cold front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms with
restrictions poss.

Sat...Mainly fair/VFR. Local fog reductions poss around dawn.

Sun...Reductions in widespread rain and low cigs.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir
NEAR TERM...DeVoir
SHORT TERM...DeVoir
LONG TERM...Lambert/Martin
AVIATION...DeVoir/RXR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 270842
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
342 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium

Radar mosaic shows several weakening MCS's to the south. This
weakening has allowed surge of moisture advection to begin spreading
northward. Short term guidance underestimating upstream low level
jet as vertical wind profiler network from WSR-88D showing 40-50kt
jet focused into central IA while IL on weaker eastern side of jet.
The combination of this surge and approaching mid-level jetlet
should carry at least scattered showers and storms across CWA this
morning. Column precipitable water is expected to increase to
around 1.25 to 1.5 inches this morning as this moisture streams nwd.

Low level jet re-energizes this aftn and eve ahead of low pressure
moving into the central plains and becoming slightly negatively
tilted. With deeper moisture in place and MUCapes anywhere from 500-
1500 j/kg, expect scattered to numerous showers and storms to
redevelop, especially over ern CWA. Mid level Lapse Rates only 5-6
degrees and bulk shear mostly in the 25-35kt range. More cloud
cover today should limit instability somewhat but isold severe not
out of the question, mainly later today. Will continue likely
wording into tonight due to nearby low level jet and continuing
surges of low level moisture flux convergence and lingering
instability.

Corfidi vectors show slow motion this afternoon and tonight as warm
cloud depth increases to 3-4km. However the Flash Flood Factor
expected to be weak. With PWAT values well above normal, expect
brief heavy rains to accompany t-storms but threat for flooding
looks low at this point.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

The weakening upper trough will slide from eastern NE to Lake
Superior during this period. High precipitable water values and weak
instability will persist over southern WI on Saturday. Multiple weak
shortwaves will ripple through the area as well, but timing of these
are very uncertain. All of these factors support continued chances
for showers and thunderstorms in southern WI Sat and Sat night.

The surface low will be tracking through IA and MN on Sat, which
will allow for a tighter pressure gradient in southern WI and lead
to breezy south to southwest winds. Max temps should be around 80,
as long as we see some breaks in the clouds.

By Sunday morning, the main mid level trough will be along the MN/WI
border. The final wave of vorticity advection will bring southern WI
the best chance for showers/thunderstorms Sunday morning, with
chances tapering off from west to east in the afternoon. Winds will
shift to the west in the afternoon. Max temps on Sunday should be
around 80 once again.

Sunday night is the only dry period in the forecast at this time.

MEMORIAL DAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

The mid level flow will become zonal for Monday with possible
ridging per the ECMWF. Several models are showing a weak shortwave
rippling through southern WI, which could produce a few showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder. Thus, kept the slight chance pops in
the forecast. Southern WI will still be in the mild air mass, so
expect temperatures in the lower 80s inland from the lake.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

A closed upper low will make its way across the northern Plains
Monday night through Thursday. The ECMWF is most progressive with
this low which leads to precip timing differences. The occluding
surface low will likely bring showers and thunderstorms to southern
WI Tue and Wed. Then the GFS stalls the precip axis over WI for Thu
and Fri which leads to the slight chance pops in the forecast. The
ECMWF keeps southern WI dry during this period. Temperatures should
be in the upper 70s for much of next week.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today into
tonight as warm, more humid and unstable air surges northward into
the area. VFR cigs are expected for most of the period but will
briefly lower as some of these showers and storms affect taf
sites. Best chance for storms in eastern taf sites later today
into tonight. Mid-high clouds keeping fog at ba this morning.

.MARINE...

Breezy west winds helped dissipate the dense fog over the
near shore waters Thursday afternoon. However today the winds will
be more south to southeast as warmer dewpoints in the low to mid 60s
surge northward over Lake Michigan. Hence expect more fog to
develop and likely to become dense for a time. Most susceptible
area is offshore from Ozaukee and Sheboygan counties where MODIS
images from Thursday showed cooler waters in these areas. Hence wl
be watching webcams of shore areas closely after sunrise.

Mariners will need to watch for scattered thunderstorms, especially
later this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds with these storms may
approach 35 kts, especially at the lakeshore.

Also, tighter pressure gradient south of warm front will allow gusty
south winds to affect lakeshore areas while winds remain less gusty
offshore due to steeper inversion beginning later tonight . Wind
gusts at the shore look to approach Small Craft Advisory levels late
tonight into Saturday.

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK68 PAFC 131326
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
526 AM AKDT FRI MAY 13 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper levels are depicting a closed high at 500 mb over the
eastern Alaska Range. With an associated ridge extending through
the Southcentral region into the eastern Aleutians. This synoptic
feature is reflected at the surface with a 1030 mb high pressure
over the Yukon Territory and a 1031 mb high in the northern Gulf
of Alaska this morning. This coincides with the MODIS Nighttime
Microphysics satellite imagery showing low stratus and fog in the
Central Gulf. While the Southcentral region has some high cirrus
clouds spilling over the ridge into the AOR. At 300 mb there is a
strong 90 knot southerly jet stream extending through the eastern
Bering northward into the Y-K Delta region towards the North
Slope. The radar imagery is showing a steady onshore flow with
rain echoes through the aforementioned region. The rest of the
Bering Sea is under weak easterly to northeasterly flow, and high
pressure is positioned over the Bering Strait. The strongest winds
along the Aleutian Chain are over the Unalaska region with small
craft advisory winds on the Pacific side due to a gale force low
south of the Central Aleutians.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models continue to remain in good agreement except for the
timing of an upper level trough that will be swinging through the
Western Gulf of Alaska into the Southwest Alaska region this
weekend. The ecmwf is slightly faster than the gfs/nam with this
feature. This synoptic feature combined with the thermal trough
will enhance the possiblities of producing isolated thunderstorms
over the Southwest region for Saturday afternoon/evening timeframe.
The forecast confidence remains high through the weekend.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
With a strong ridge overhead expect a hot and dry day across
Southcentral Alaska. The main forecast challenge is timing and
strength of sea breezes. As the 850 mb ridge lifts northward into
interior Alaska today offshore flow of 5 to 10 knots will develop.
This will be enough to at least delay the onset of sea breezes,
especially along prince william sound and the north gulf coast.
therefore, have bumped up high temps at least a few degrees
area-wide (and correspondingly lowered relative humidities).

Winds on Saturday look quite a bit different. As the upper level
ridge moves inland a well defined thermal trough will set up
beneath it. This will aid in development of the very typical east-
west oriented surface ridge along the north Gulf Coast which will
promote development of stronger sea breezes moving in earlier in
the day. Development of gusty gap winds is expected along
Turnagain Arm and into south to west Anchorage, and also along
the Knik River Valley into Palmer and along the Copper River. The
sea breezes and gap winds will help moderate temperatures, so forecast
highs have been lowered just a bit.

Meanwhile, an upper level trough will approach Southcentral
Saturday afternoon then move through Saturday night into Sunday.
The air mass out ahead of it will start out very dry and stable.
Surface-based stability parameters look favorable for
convection...mainly over the western Kenai Peninsula, Talkeetna
Mountains and northern Susitna Valley. Based on the limiting
factors of moisture and stability it seems convective initiation
is most likely to occur over the mountains where there is always
some moisture to work with (in the form of melting snow). Have
maintained a slight chance of thunderstorms for the western Kenai
Peninsula, but with warmer low level temps inland the best chance
for showers and thunderstorms will be over the Talkeetna
mountains. Southeasterly flow will advect whatever does form
across the northern Susitna Valley.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A few lingering showers will be seen across the Kuskokwim Delta
and Lower Kuskokwim Valley this morning as the building upper
level ridge shifts the upper level trough anchored over the Bering
Sea and North pacific westward. By midday, the remaining lift
along the eastern periphery of the upper level trough will shift
into the Bering Sea and allow sky cover to quickly diminish.
Temperatures at 850 mb will warm 2 to 5 degrees Celsius over the
next 24 to 36 hours as the ridge moves overhead. These warmer
temperatures aloft coupled with developing offshore flow will
easily bring some of the warmest temperatures observed so far this
year. Temperatures today will warm into the mid 50s across the
Kuskokwim Delta to the lower to mid 60s across the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley and into the mid 60s to lower 70s across all of southwest
Alaska on Saturday. Thunderstorms look likely on Saturday but will
be isolated due to the lack of sufficient moisture. Thermal
profiles show lapse rates of 7 to 8 degrees C/km with sfc based
CAPE values upwards to 500 J/kg. An easterly wave will be pushing
across the northern Bristol Bay area and southern portions of the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley Saturday afternoon which will act as the
lifting mechanism that will help utilize the instability and what
little moisture is available.

On Sunday, a similar setup to Saturday will be in place once
again. However, there will be a few differences in the ingredients
in place Sunday afternoon. The biggest plus for thunderstorms
will be a stronger lifting mechanism on Sunday in the form of
another upper level easterly wave moving across southwest Alaska.
The negatives include somewhat less surface-based instability on
Sunday due to cooler temperatures resulting from more cloud cover,
and less moisture in place. Thermal lapse rates will be around 7
degrees C/km with forecast model soundings indicating CAPE values
of 200-300 J/kg. Dew points are expected to be in the 40s. Thus,
the fundamental question will be if the stronger wave will be able
to overcome a less favorable environment. The current thinking is
the best chance for storms will be along the Kilbuck and Ahklun
Mountains, extending north into parts of the Kuskokwim Valley as
the topography aids in lifting the moist, unstable air mass in
place. The timing of the upper level easterly wave is also such
that it will be moving into this region at the most favorable time
of day (late afternoon) when the greatest amount of heating can
occur prior to convective initiation.

If thunderstorms develop, an environment featuring weak steering-
level winds should mean the storms will move very little from
where they form. This means the storms will choke themselves off
from their source of warm, moist air as they create their own cold
pools.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure will be the main story across much of the Bering Sea
through the weekend. An area of low pressure in the North Pacific
will drive a front through the eastern and central Aleutians this
afternoon before stalling just west of Adak Saturday night as it
clashes with the high pressure over the Bering Sea. The front will
bring some decent rainfall to the eastern and central Aleutians as
well as small craft winds and seas. The front will help displace
the high pressure over the Bering Sea which will allow for broad
cyclonic flow to re-develop over the Bering Sea by the beginning
of next week and bring the return of isolated to scattered rain
showers. Fog will be possible across much of the Bering with high
pressure moving overhead but should decrease drastically in
coverage as the aforementioned front displaces the high pressure.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

High pressure over the area will begin to diminish sunday night
with low pressure building back over the gulf and eastern
bering...causing increasing cloudiness along the coast and parts
of the southern mainland. By early to mid next week...models
continue to struggle with how they want to handle various systems
that will move through the area. This results in lower forecast confidence
moving into mid week with some models bringing in showers to the
area...especially during the afternoon with daytime heating.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC/JW
LONG TERM...TP

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK68 PAFC 101333
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
533 AM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE WESTERN BERING HAS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE
WITH A 991 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SOUTHERLY AND COINCIDES WITH A STRONG 110 KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM OVER THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH THE Y-K
DELTA REGION THIS MORNING. THE RADAR IS SHOWING A SWATH OF
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION THIS MORNING.

ON THE EAST SIDE AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF WITH AN ASSOCIATED AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF NORTHWARD INTO THE
BEAUFORT SEA. THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WIND IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE
WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE GULF AND WESTERLY WINDS FROM THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN GULF
THIS MORNING. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION. WHILE THE MODIS
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE MAT-SU VALLEYS AND THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE NAM WAS THE
PREFERRED MODEL OF CHOICE. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)...
PANC...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING
BEFORE WE START GETTING STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS COMING OFF THE
TURNAGAIN ARM BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE
EVENING TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA NORTH TO
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. AREAS WEST OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
WILL HOLD UNDER GENERALLY BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE FROM A WEAKENING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS AREAS WEST
OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE DYNAMICS ARE PRETTY WEAK...HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE KENAI AND
SUSITNA VALLEY TODAY THROUGH WED MORNING WITH SPRINKLES TOWARD THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL/MAT VALLEY TONIGHT AND WED. THE RIDGE BUILDS WEST
SOME WED NIGHT AND THU...SO ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE PUSHED
WEST.

LOCAL GAP FLOWS (TURNAGAIN ARM/PORTAGE VALLEY/COPPER RIVER/KNIK)
WILL PERSIST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WED...THOUGH THE TURNAGAIN WIND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...TUE AND WED)...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN PINCHED BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
BERING AND A RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. WITH SOME FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE SWEET
SPOT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF RAIN. THE FLOW WILL
FAVOR SOUTH FACING SLOPES WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THU EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS...RAIN SHOULD
COME AS STEADY PRECIPITATION AND NOT BE OVERLY HEAVY AT ANY ONE
TIME. THUS...HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME.
BUT THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY ESSENTIALLY STALLS OVER SW
ALASKA AND WAVE AFTER WAVE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL RIDE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG IT. EACH WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...TUE AND
WED)...BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL DOMINATE THE BERING. ON THE
EASTERN HALF...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE JET FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...FAVORING THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CHAIN. IT WILL ALSO PUMP UP
SOME WARMER AIR CREATING DECENT FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER
COOLER WATERS AND THE ICE PACK. ON THE WESTERN HALF...COOLER AND
CALMER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING DOWN
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
POSSIBLY ALLOWING A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THE
ANCHOR LOW WITHIN THE CIRCULATION WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY EAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY...HELPING TO BRING AN END TO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A CONSOLIDATED BLOCKING HIGH WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE STATE AND ELONGATE AND BUILD TO THE WEST LATE THURSDAY. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE SKIES AND RESULT IN WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOONS
THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
THIS YEAR ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...DK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 090830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS ON INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERN WI IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE CONTROL OF
DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HOWEVER LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH. SURFACE WARM FRONT CUTS
ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL INTO TN VALLEY REGION WHERE
DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO 50-55F. MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL IL BUT THIS AREA IS MOVING MOSTLY EAST. ANOTHER MORE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN NE...MOVING NORTHWARD
AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD. AN EASTWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS SECOND STRONGER SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY BRING -SHRA AND ISOLD
T TO SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MRNG. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SOME INCREASING
WEAK DBZ OVER SOUTHEAST IA.

THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THIS WEAK WAVE DOES REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVES NORTH BY AFTN. HENCE EXPECT MUCH OF THE
MORNING TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS CWA. THREAT FOR -SHRA INCREASES DURING
THE AFTN...AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS SHIFTING
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER STRONGEST MOISTURE PUSH AND CONVERGENCE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN EXPECT INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO GRAZE
SOUTHERN WI. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE AND TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF LLJ. HOWEVER YET ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS ALL OF
SRN WI TNGT. QPF MOSTLY IN THE TWO TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE
THIS AFTN AND TNGT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NOT LINGER AND
CONTINUE MOVING NWD.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWARD LIFTING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING.
MODELS SHOW HEAVIEST QPF DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LIGHTER QPF
NOTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS THE AFTERNOON DRY WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW PRIMARY UPPER LOW/VORT MAX SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS SRN WI WHICH SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHRA GOING
AFTER THE MAIN SLUG OF PRECIP DEPARTS SRN WI. SURFACE WARM FRONT
WILL BE POSITIONED WELL SOUTH OF WI SO A CLOUDY AND COOL EASTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED WITH A LOWER CLOUD DECK/STRATUS LIKELY PERSISTING
ALL DAY.

.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
INITIAL 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ACROSS FAR ERN WI AT THE
OUTSET AND GETS A KICK FROM THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH HEADING EAST
FROM THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS.
PRIMARY SFC LOW HEADS NE INTO CANADA HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING A
SECONDARY LOW TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND THIS
HEADS NE FROM CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPR MIDWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH WAA PRECIP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SO
TRENDED POPS LOWER DURING THE DAY. HIGHEST 925 TEMPS IN THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING. SO EVENING HIGHS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ARRIVING CONVECTION. CWASP
NUMBERS ARE THE HIGHEST DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NAM DOES SHOW
ONE BATCH OF CONVECTION IN THE BETTER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH AND
ANOTHER RIDING TO OUR NORTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE
ECMWF/GEM/GFS SHOW MORE OF A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING THE WHOLE
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO WILL HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS FOR NOW GOING WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS AND WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER
ATTM. IN ADDITION THERE IS AN UPTICK IN 0-6KM SHEAR AND SOME DECENT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT EVOLVE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS
BUFKIT SHOWS CAPE VALUES ROOTED AROUND 900 MILLIBARS PUSHING
1000J/KG. MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SRN 1/2 OF FCST AREA SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SFC LOW PROGGD TO BE VCNTY NRN WI WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO SRN
WI. WL KEEP SOME MRNG POPS IN THE FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM 500
MILLIBAR FORCING AND FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN THOUGH 925 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO 10-13C AND WITH 925 WINDS OF 20-
30KNOTS FROM THE WEST WILL NEGATE ANY LAKE EFFECT AND STILL SEE
MILDER TEMPS.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
PROGS ARE STILL SHOWING A RATHER COOL PERIOD SETTLING IN. 500
MILLIBAR FLOW WILL BE STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE WITH A FEW WAVES WHICH ARE RESOLVED DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS
IN TERMS OF STRENGTH AND TIMING. THERE WILL BE SHRA POTENTIAL FROM
TIME TO TIME TIED TO THESE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED REINFORCING SHOTS OF
COOLER AIR. 925/850 THERMAL PROFILE STILL LIKELY TO GET QUITE
CHILLY. THE 925 WINDS REMAIN UP AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/CLOUD COVER AND MIXED LOW LEVELS HARD TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN
FROST AT THIS TIME.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY. LOWER MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SRN WI AND TAF SITES
TONIGHT. MAY BE A FEW NON-SEVERE T-STORMS AFFECTING TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

.MARINE...GRADUALLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY IN THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES SLOWLY EWD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY ONSHORE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...NOT TURNING OFF SHORE UNTIL
LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

RECENT SATELLITE MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE MI SURFACE TEMP STILL
IN THE LOW 40S AWAY FROM SHORE. EXPECT LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO
INITIALLY PREVENT STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE
SURFACE TODAY INTO THIS EVE. HOWEVER GUSTY ESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO EVENTUALLY REACH LAKE SURFACE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE MRNG...WHICH
WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS. HENCE PER COORD WITH LOT...WL POST SMALL
CRAFT ADVY BEGINNING AT 06Z FOR SRN ZONES AND 09Z FOR NRN
ZONES...LASTING THRU TUE MRNG.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ645-
646.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643-
644.

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 200834
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
334 AM CDT WED APR 20 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING LINGERING -SHRA OVER NORTHEAST CWA TO CONTINUE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...SHORT WAVE RIDGING SHOULD
BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO BULK OF CWA THIS MRNG INTO THE EARLY AFTN.
MEANDERING UPSTREAM UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD NEXT
36 HOURS AS LONG WAVE TROF APPROACHES WEST COAST. POTENT PIECE OF
MID-LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL/ERN
KS AND NE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND GRAZE SRN WI LATER THIS AFTN
AND EVE. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL JET REAMPLIFIES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW AND RESULTS IN SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE DURING THIS PERIOD. ENOUGH AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM AND
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE TO WARRANT CONTINUING CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS
MOST OF CWA FOR ABOUT A SIX HOUR PERIOD. WL KEEP FAR EASTERN CWA IN
LIKELY WORDING DUE TO STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINING JUST TO
THE WEST.

MUCAPE INCREASES TO 200-500 J/KG DURING THE PEAK FORCING SO WL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION. ENOUGH WEAK SHEAR AND
ELEVATED CAPE TO RESULT IN A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN STRONGER
STORMS BUT SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED.

ENHANCED LIFT FROM SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SPEEDS TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT. LIGHTER SFC WINDS
AND DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WL RESULT IN AREAS OF LATE NIGHT
FOG.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE UPPER CIRCULATION THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING OFF TO OUR WEST FOR
SOME TIME NOW WILL BE ACROSS IOWA EARLY IN THE DAY. 500 MILLIBAR LOW
PROGGD TO BE ACROSS IOWA AT THE. THE GEM IS THE ONLY MODEL TO KEEP
THE CIRCULATION INTACT AND SHIFT IT SOUTHEAST INTO MO. MEANWHILE THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION OPENS UP THE LOW INTO A POSITIVE TILT WAVE WHICH
CROSSES SRN AND ERN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE LOW LEVELS A
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING THROUGH SRN WI IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WITH SOME TALL SKINNY CAPE NOTED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL
KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS. MODELS SHOW A DRY WEDGE DURING
THE MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO FILL IN WITH THE APPROACHING
MID LEVEL WAVE AND LOWER LEVEL TROUGH.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD WITH SOME GUSTY NNE WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS THE COLDEST SOLUTION SHOWING 925
TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR ZERO 0C AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION IN THIS REGARD BETWEEN THE WARMER NAM AND COLDER
GFS. DAVA WORKS IN WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD. SURFACE HIGH
PROGGD TO BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND RIDGING SSW INTO THE MID MISS
VLY.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES
AREA. A RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH A NICE BOUNCE BACK OF THE 925 TEMPS
INTO THE 10-12C RANGE. SO EXPECT TEMPS TO GET BACK INTO THE 60S ESP
FOR INLAND LOCALES.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECT THIS TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A
TIGHTENING AND SOUTHWARD SAGGING 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BUT CONSENSUS OF
MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE FORCING DUE
TO THE POSITION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACRS WI DURING THIS PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE UPPER SUPPORT IN PLACE AS WELL BUT FOR NOW LATCHING
ONTO THE SFC/850 LOW TRAVERSING TO OUR WEST AND EVENTUALLY OUR SOUTH.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE ECMWF HANGS ONTO THE PRECIP A BIT LONGER WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
THE SURFACE HIGH IN FASTER AND SHOWS PRONOUNCED RIDGING INTO THE
AREA WITH A DRIER NE LLVL FLOW. AT THIS TIME THE SUPERBLEND POPS
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTORMS DURING THE AFTN AND EVE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TNGT
TO IFR AS LIGHTER WINDS AND DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEPS INTO SRN
WI...ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY
TO DEVELOP LATE TNGT AND LINGER INTO THU MRNG.

.MARINE...WARM AIR ALOFT WILL CREATE STEEP INVERSION THAT WILL PREVENT
GUSTY WINDS ABOUT 500 FT ABV SURFACE AND HIGHER FROM MIXING DOWN TO
LAKE SFC. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS THRU TONIGHT.
LIGHTER SFC WINDS AND WARM...MOIST AIR MAY BRING AREAS OF FOG TO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS THU INTO THU NGT. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND GLERL
ESTIMATED LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE LOWER 40S. THESE VALUES CONFIRMED
BY SOUTHERN LAKE MI BUOY 45007 WHICH STARTED TRANSMITTING FOR THE
SEASON TUESDAY EVENING.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 152030
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1230 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THEY ONLY DIVERGE
A BIT AS THEY MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THEY APPEAR TO HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ORIENTATION OVER THE
STATE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
SOLUTIONS TO NUDGE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DATABASE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS SET UP OVER THE STATE
AND WITH A 514 DAM LOW OVER HUSLIA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL SLOWLY
PULL OUT TO THE NORTH TO BE OVER DEADHORSE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LOW THEN ABSORBS A 520 DAM LOW THAT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE
HIGH ARCTIC...AND ROTATES SOUTH TO OVER MANLEY HOT SPRINGS BY
SATURDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA WITH A
549 DAM HIGH MOVING OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE
RIDGE SPLITS AS THE LOW OVER DEADHORSE MOVES SOUTH WITH A 540 DAM
HIGH OVER BRISTOL BAY WITH WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...THE GULF OF ANADYR...AND NORTH TO A 547 DAM
HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC. WEAK RIDGING WILL ALSO PERSIST OVER
THE YUKON TERRITORY AND NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. AT 850 HPA...NOT
MUCH CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A BIT COOLER AS TEMPERATURES
FALL TO AROUND 20 BELOW CELSIUS OVER FAIRBANKS AND AROUND 30 BELOW
OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN.

SATELLITE...SPORT 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMPOSITE OF VIIRS AT
15/1408Z AND MODIS AT 15/1422Z CLEARLY SHOWS A BAND OF STRATUS
EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. IT ALSO INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW. THE GOES PROBABILITY PRODUCT
AT 15/1500Z INDICATES MOST OF THE STRATUS IS OF THE MVFR
VARIETY...THOUGH THERE IS A PATCH OF IFR OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC
PLAINS.

SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AROUND A 999 MB LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN NEAR DAWSON YUKON TERRITORY
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT DISSIPATES. A SHARP RIDGE WITH A 1034
MB CENTER NEAR UMIAT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES WEST OVER THE AREA WITH A 1039 MB CENTER NEAR
BANKS ISLAND...AND A 1041 MB CENTER OVER WRANGEL ISLAND. INVERTED
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY THURSDAY.

ARCTIC SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...RELATIVELY QUIET...NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST OF DEADHORSE AND OVER
THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. SNOW
ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES ON THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE
TO THE EAST OF ANAKTUVUK PASS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO 25 MPH IN
THE PASSES THIS EVENING WILL TAPER DOWN TO VARIABLE AT 10
OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LESS
THAN 10 MPH. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES FOR 205 AND 206
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE BROOKS RANGE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...COOLER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW DRAGS COLD ARCTIC AIR SOUTH. MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE YUKON DELTA...SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUSLIA AND
THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME STRONG NORTH WINDS
IN AND NEAR THE BERING STRAIT THIS EVENING TO 30 MPH WILL TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT...THEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THIS EVENING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS NORTHEAST...TO
BE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...TANANA VALLEY...AND FLATS WEST OF DELTA
JUNCTION...WHITE MOUNTAINS...YUKON FLATS WEST OF FORT YUKON AND
THE UPPER KOYUKUK BASIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER THE VALLEYS WITH UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND BROOKS RANGE. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT...THE EXCEPTION IS THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WHERE
WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 35
MPH. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
THIS WEEKEND.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ205-AKZ206.

SDB MAR 16

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 031245
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
345 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 03/06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MID RANGE...AND
ARE EVEN TRENDING THE SAME DIRECTION IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
STILL NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM RUN TO RUN SO
AGAIN WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...533 DAM HIGH NEAR 80N 140W WILL SLIDE SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO BE 500 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND BY
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST TO MACKENZIE BAY BY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR AND YUKON TERRITORY. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A
515 DAM LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE AND LIES FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC. THE 515 DAM LOW WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWEST TO BRISTOL BAY BY LATE FRIDAY...THEN OVER THE WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY. A 534 DAM HIGH CENTER OVER
BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE PRIBILOFS THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A 538 DAM HIGH OVER SIBERIA
EARLY FRIDAY. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH TO THE NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE SUNDAY WHILE
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AT 850 HPA...GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 13 CELSIUS
BELOW OVER FAIRBANKS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR
STARTING SUNDAY.

SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE. A RATHER BENIGN
PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS CHANGING AS THE
1037 MB HIGH NEAR 78N 140W WOBBLES AROUND A BIT AND SLIPS
SOUTHWEST TO 77N 155W BY LATE FRIDAY...AND 966 MB LOW NEAR 48N
150W PERSISTS BUT SWINGS A 974 MB LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE
STATE WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS DEVELOPING IN MANY
AREAS OF THE STATE. A 1030 MB HIGH OVER SIBERIA WILL PERSIST WITH
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA TODAY SLOWLY
SLIDING TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO BE OVER THE WEST COAST
BY LATE SATURDAY.

SATELLITE...SPORT AVHRR NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 02/0655Z IS
AGAIN FILLING IN THE GAP TONIGHT BETWEEN THE VIIRS AND MODIS
IMAGES. USING THE AVHRR IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE GOES MVFR/IFR
PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 03/0900Z THEY INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER STRATUS THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTON SOUND ACROSS KOTZEBUE SOUND
THEN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST...PLAINS...AND BROOKS RANGE TO
MACKENZIE BAY...AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR NORTH OF
FORT YUKON.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NOT SEEING ANY REASON FOR THE
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES TO MOVE ON...SO WILL GO WITH
PERSISTENCE THE FIRST COUPLE PERIODS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHTER WINDS
INLAND. WINDS WILL START PICKING UP TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WINTER
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS WINDS KICK UP NEAR 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS FLOATING
AROUND THE COASTAL AREAS. A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING IN THE
BERING STRAIT AND KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION AND SOME DENSE FOG IN THE
BERING STRAIT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE INTERIOR AREAS. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE
GENERALLY OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LIGHTER
VARIABLE WINDS INLAND. COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AS THE COLD AIR IS PULLED SOUTH BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
IS DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDS TO THE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
YUKON FLATS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AS FAR AS
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. INCREASING WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ACROSS THE STATE. GUSTY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 50 MPH.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
WARMING A FEW DEGREES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SDB MAR 16

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 021130
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
230 AM AKST WED MAR 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AT 06Z AGAINST THE SURFACE ANALYSIS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MID RANGE. THE
SEMI PERSISTENT PATTERN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST TWO AND A
HALF MONTHS DOES TRANSITION A BIT WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE STATE THIS WEEKEND...BUT THEN IT TRANSITIONS RIGHT BACK EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN
SO WILL STICK TO JUST MAKING MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST DATABASE
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...536 DAM HIGH NEAR 80N 160W WILL SLIDE EAST A
BIT AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE STARTS DRIFTING BACK
SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. A 527 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MACKENZIE
BAY TODAY AND MOVE WEST IN THE TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BEFORE
MERGING WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY. A 537
DAM HIGH CENTER OVER YAKUTAT MOVES WEST OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE
THIS EVENING...THEN WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
WITH A 521 DAM LOW OVER KANTISHNA THURSDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH
WILL PERSIST WITH THE LOW MOVING SOUTH OVER BRISTOL BAY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD WEST OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS THE
LOW MOVES SOUTH. AT 850 HPA...GRADUAL COOLING TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK AND WILL SEE THE TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 15
CELSIUS BELOW OVER FAIRBANKS BY SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WEAK WARM WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR STARTING SUNDAY.

SURFACE...BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT
WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE 1042 MB
HIGH NEAR 78N 135W PERSISTS BUT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...A 1027 MB HIGH
OVER SIBERIA BUILDS TO 1036 MB BY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR WRANGEL
ISLAND...AND THE 970 MB LOW NEAR 45N 148W DRIFTS NORTH WITH A 984
MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 48N 135W THURSDAY AND
MOVING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE STATE. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE STATE TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST AS THE LOW IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES NORTH.

SATELLITE...SPORT AVHRR NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 02/0717Z IS
FILLING IN THE GAP TONIGHT BETWEEN THE VIIRS AND MODIS IMAGES AND
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS WITH THE LITTLE LOW SPINNING UP
AROUND MACKENZIE BAY AND SPREADING SOME SNOW TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST. STRATUS EXTENDS WEST TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND ALSO COVERS
MOST OF THE ARCTIC PLAIN...THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE...AND EVEN
THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR NORTH OF FORT YUKON.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE..STRATUS...PATCHY FOG...A FEW
FLURRIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHTER WINDS INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES AROUND THE SEWARD
PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEARING OR MOSTLY CLEAR. SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND AREA WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING AS THAT WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LIGHTER VARIABLE
WINDS INLAND. COOLING TREND OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD AIR IS PULLED
SOUTH BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS TO
THE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND YUKON FLATS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...BUT
INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE ALASKA
RANGE PASSES LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 50 MPH. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WARMING A FEW DEGREES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.

SDB MAR 16

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 101130
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
230 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AS GOOD AGREEMENT
CONTINUES AND HAS IMPROVED IN THE 24 TO 60 HOUR RANGE. WILL USE
THE SAME FORECAST METHODOLOGY TODAY BY LEANING ON AN EVEN BLEND
FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE TIMING AS
IT MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE STATE
AS IT EXTENDS UP TH WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA OVER THE SOUTHERN
YUKON TERRITORY THEN WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND AND CHUKCHI SEA WITH
540 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE AS A 525 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE WEST TO THE UPPER KOBUK THURSDAY MORNING...AND OVER KOTZEBUE
SOUND FRIDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTH AND DRIFTING INTO THE CHUKCHI
SEA. A CHUNK OF THE RIDGE BROKE OFF AND A 540 DAM HIGH DEVELOPED
OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTH WITH A
SECOND CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC...WHILE
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. AT 850 HPA...WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE HERE SINCE YESTERDAY...A 1046 MB HIGH
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC AS THE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL ROTATE NORTH
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ALL OF THEM DISSIPATING AS THE MOVE OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE MAINLAND. AS THE LOWS MOVE NORTH THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE PINCHES A BIT AND SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER SUMMITS IN THE
INTERIOR.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE IS PRODUCING SOME
CLOUDS...AND IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING A BIT TO THE WINDS WHICH ARE
PRODUCING SOME LOCAL BLOWING SNOW THAT IS COMBINING WITH FOG TO
REDUCE VISIBILITY. GOES IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A NICE BAND OF
STRATUS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT IS MOVING
WEST. THE SPORT MODIS AND NPP VIIRS 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMBINED
IMAGE FROM 09/2023Z...08/2001Z SHOWS A WELL DEFINED STRIP OF
STRATUS THAT EXTENDS EAST SOUTHEAST WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
WINDS INCREASE A BIT TODAY AS THE RIDGE PINCHES SOUTH A BIT SO
EXPECT AND INCREASE IN THE BLOWING SNOW CONTRIBUTION TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A LITTLE INCREASED CLOUDINESS
OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA TODAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS A DECAYING WEATHER FRONT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MID DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.
NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...BUT LOCAL WINDS
GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR AROUND DELTA JUNCTION AND IN THE
ALASKA RANGE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OVER SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

SDB FEB 16

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 091157
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
257 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND THEY REMAIN IN
RELATIVE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE MODELS REALLY
START TO DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF SOME OF THE MAJOR FEATURES.
WILL LEAN ON A PRETTY EVEN BLEND FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THEN
LEAN TOWARD NAM THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE
INTERIOR...THEN TOWARD THE GFS WHEN THE NAM RUN ENDS AS THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODELS SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR TO THE WEST.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE STATE
AS IT EXTENDS UP TH WEST COAST OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY
THEN WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND WITH 534 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE RIDGE WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE. A
525 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC PLAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN CUT OFF THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST
OVER THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE UPPER KOBUK EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVES WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND BY LATE THURSDAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS FALL TO 509 DAM. A
536 DAM CENTER WILL DEVELOP IN THE PART OF THE RIDGE THAT GETS CUT
OFF AND WILL MOVE OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE
NORTH IN OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE
ARCTIC...WHILE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.

SURFACE...A 1044 MB HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC
AS THE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL ROTATE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ALL OF THEM
DISSIPATING AS THE MOVE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN THIS
MORNING THAT IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS AS IT DRAWS MOISTURE
IN...AND IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING A BIT TO THE WINDS WHICH ARE
PRODUCING SOME BLOWING SNOW THAT IS COMBINING WITH FOG TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY. GOES IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE BAND OF STRATUS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT IS MOVING WEST. THE SPORT
MODIS AND NPP VIIRS 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMBINED IMAGE FROM
08/2159Z...08/2233Z SHOWS A WELL DEFINED STRIP OF STRATUS THAT
EXTENDS EAST WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT
TODAY WHICH WILL HELP DIMINISH THE BLOWING SNOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THE FOG TO CHANGE MUCH SO EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VISIBILITIES ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST LATER TODAY. DO NOT EXPECT
STRATUS TO MOVE TODAY. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING TOO MUCH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
WEATHER NEXT COUPLE DAYS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND. LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THE AREA COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN SOME SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVING INTO THE FAIRBANKS AREA
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A DECAYING FRONT SWINGS NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM TANANA EAST AND NORTH TO THE BROOKS
RANGE THURSDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE AN INCH OR LESS AT
THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...BUT
LOCAL WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR IN THE ALASKA RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SDB FEB 16

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 241630 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1030 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016

.UPDATE...

VISIBILITY SHOULD BE IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE TODAY WITH LIGHT
FOG/HAZE AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES WEST OF MADISON THIS MORNING. THERE WAS
A REPORT OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THE NWS LA CROSSE OFFICE. THIS
LIGHT PRECIP COULD SPREAD INTO MADISON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SHORTWAVE... BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING BASED ON
DRY AIR ABOVE 3000 FEET.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

IFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY EXPANDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING.
NOT SURE ABOUT HOW FAR EAST THEY WILL SPREAD... SO BROUGHT UES DOWN
TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT MKE OR ENW. VSBY SHOULD BE IN THE 3 TO
5SM RANGE TODAY WITH LIGHT FOG/HAZE AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES WEST OF
MADISON THIS MORNING. THIS LIGHT PRECIP COULD SPREAD INTO MADISON
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE... BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS HAPPENING BASED ON DRY AIR ABOVE 3000 FEET.

LOW CLOUDS WITH MAINLY IFR CIGS SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

.MARINE...

ALLOWED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER ON LATEST HI RES MODIS IMAGE FROM SAT TO
EVALUATE ICE COVERAGE IN NEAR SHORE WATERS. THINKING THE WINDIER
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WARMER TEMPS HELPED TO
BREAK UP AND THIN THE ICE THAT WAS MORE EXTENSIVE ON THE 19TH.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING
WIDESPREAD STRATUS FIELD ACROSS SRN WI EARLY THIS MRNG. QUITE A BIT
OF LIGHT FOG REPORTED UPSTREAM ACROSS IA AND SRN MN. SEE NO REASON
WHY THIS LIGHT FOG WOULD NOT CARRY INTO WRN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG...AS
SFC DEWPTS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES. MORE TROUBLESOME IS THAT WEAKLY
CHANNELED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY HAS JUST ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
IT TO SHAKE OUT SOME PATCHY FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE UPSTREAM
IN THE STRATUS SHIELD. LATEST KARX RADAR IN VCP-31 SHOWING
INCREASING LIGHT RETURNS SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. FOR
NOW...WL INCLUDE SMALL CHANCE FOR -ZL AND FLURRIES IN WRN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS FOR WRN AREAS IF LOWER
VISIBILITIES SPREAD INTO THIS AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SFC TEMPS
WL REMAIN IN THE MID 20S THRU THE EARLY MRNG. WEAK LIFT SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA LATER TODAY AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO SRN WI
AHEAD OF MUCH MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE MOVING INTO
THE SRN PLAINS TNGT.

EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO HANG ON THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PATCHY FOG
RETURNING LATER TNGT AS LIGHT WINDS ACCOMPANY A SURGE OF DEEPER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER MONDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IA AND
IL WHILE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION. GREATEST DCVA FROM
THIS WAVE WILL BE FROM THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE SFC AND 850 LOW CENTERS MOVE INTO ERN OR SERN IA BY
LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECTING A SUSTAINED SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. WE WILL NOT BE DISPLACING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SO IT SHOULD
NOT TAKE MUCH TO GENEROUSLY MODIFY THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE
AS THE SFC/850 FLOW ADVECTS THE MILDER AIR AHEAD OF THE APPCH
SFC/850 LOW CENTERS. WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT GETTING UNDERWAY IN
THE MORNING WILL RETAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ZL- AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SYSTEM PRECIP IN THE AFTN. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY COINCIDE
WITH A WINDOW OF TIME WHERE SFC TEMPS AND LACK OF SATURATION
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WOULD WARRANT SOME CONCERN FOR
FREEZING PRECIP. SFC/850 LOW LIFTS NE FROM SRN/CNTRL WI MONDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLLAPSING THERMAL PROFILE AND A
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. APPEARS BEST OVERLAP OF THE COLDER AIR AND
DEF ZONE PRECIP WITH THE WAVE WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN CWA SO SOME
HIGHER AMOUNTS THERE...PUSHING A COUPLE INCHES WITH LESSER TOTALS
IN THE SOUTH WHERE LINGERING WARM LAYER WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS A
BIT.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COLD ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW AND SECONDARY WAVES PRODUCING POCKETS OF DCVA. MODELS SHOWING
VRY LGT QPF SO CHANCES THERE FOR LIGHT ACCUM SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE
BOOSTED POPS OVER SUPERBLEND. EVENTUALLY WE MAY NEED TO TAKE THESE
POPS HIGHER WITH HIGH CONFIDENT SNOWING/LOW QPF IDEA BUT HAVE KEPT
POPS IN A COLLABORATIVE RANGE.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. MID
LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOK ESP ON THE GEM.
850 WAA MORE PRONOUNCED ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. 925 THERMAL
TROUGH LINGERS ON BOTH MODELS WITH RATHER SLUGGISH RECOVERY. GFS 2
METER TEMPS TOO COLD. TRENDED MORE WITH THE ECMWF/NAM/SUPERBLEND
TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES ON SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN LAKES THIS PERIOD. THE GFS
BRINGS A SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS WITH THE SFC/850 FORCING WHILE MID
LEVEL WAVE IS FURTHER EAST. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A MORE DIRECTLY
IMPACTING SHORTWAVE WITH NO QPF BEING GENERATED. WILL KEEP SMALL
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW. ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE WARMER AND SUGGESTS
MAYBE SOME RAIN MIXING IN WITH ANY PRECIP. GFS STAYS COLD ENOUGH
FOR MAINLY SNOW.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PROGS ARE SHOWING A SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS WITH WNW 850 FLOW. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW 850 TEMPS PUSHING 10C WITH 925 TEMPS ON THE
WARM SIDE OF ZERO AS WELL. SO COULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S
WITH THIS REGIME AND AGAIN POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR READINGS TO BE
HIGHER THAN SUPERBLEND GUID.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THERMAL RIDGE PROGGD TO REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO AT LEAST EARLY IN
THE DAY. SOME COLLAPSING OF 850/925 ISOTHERMS WITH SFC FRONT BEING
DRAGGED INTO THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR RETURN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD REST OF SOUTHEAST WI
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY WEAK FORCING MAY SHAKE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR PATCHY -ZL OVER PARTS OF SRN WI...MAINLY THIS MRNG. THINKING
KMSN WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO VERY LIGHT PRECIP THIS MRNG.
THINKING LOW CLOUDS WL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND WL
LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATER TODAY OR TNGT. SOME LIGHT FOG
LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH
LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MID-MORNING
DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS IN ICE FREE AREAS OF NEAR
SHORE WATERS. VESSEL IN MKE HARBOR REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
18KTS AT 08Z. SRN ZONE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SEVERAL HOURS BUT
WL LET DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE. TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER ON LATEST HI RES
MODIS IMAGE FROM SAT TO EVALUATE ICE COVERAGE IN NEAR SHORE
WATERS. THINKING THE WINDIER CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
AND WARMER TEMPS HELPED TO BREAK UP AND THIN THE ICE THAT WAS MORE
EXTENSIVE ON THE 19TH.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 240918
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IA AND
IL WHILE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION. GREATEST DCVA FROM
THIS WAVE WILL BE FROM THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE SFC AND 850 LOW CENTERS MOVE INTO ERN OR SERN IA BY
LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECTING A SUSTAINED SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. WE WILL NOT BE DISPLACING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SO IT SHOULD
NOT TAKE MUCH TO GENEROUSLY MODIFY THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE
AS THE SFC/850 FLOW ADVECTS THE MILDER AIR AHEAD OF THE APPCH
SFC/850 LOW CENTERS. WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT GETTING UNDERWAY IN
THE MORNING WILL RETAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ZL- AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SYSTEM PRECIP IN THE AFTN. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY COINCIDE
WITH A WINDOW OF TIME WHERE SFC TEMPS AND LACK OF SATURATION
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WOULD WARRANT SOME CONCERN FOR
FREEZING PRECIP. SFC/850 LOW LIFTS NE FROM SRN/CNTRL WI MONDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLLAPSING THERMAL PROFILE AND A
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. APPEARS BEST OVERLAP OF THE COLDER AIR AND
DEF ZONE PRECIP WITH THE WAVE WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN CWA SO SOME
HIGHER AMOUNTS THERE...PUSHING A COUPLE INCHES WITH LESSER TOTALS
IN THE SOUTH WHERE LINGERING WARM LAYER WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS A
BIT.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COLD ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW AND SECONDARY WAVES PRODUCING POCKETS OF DCVA. MODELS SHOWING
VRY LGT QPF SO CHANCES THERE FOR LIGHT ACCUM SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE
BOOSTED POPS OVER SUPERBLEND. EVENTUALLY WE MAY NEED TO TAKE THESE
POPS HIGHER WITH HIGH CONFIDENT SNOWING/LOW QPF IDEA BUT HAVE KEPT
POPS IN A COLLABORATIVE RANGE.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. MID
LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOK ESP ON THE GEM.
850 WAA MORE PRONOUNCED ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. 925 THERMAL
TROUGH LINGERS ON BOTH MODELS WITH RATHER SLUGGISH RECOVERY. GFS 2
METER TEMPS TOO COLD. TRENDED MORE WITH THE ECMWF/NAM/SUPERBLEND
TEMPS.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES ON SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN LAKES THIS PERIOD. THE GFS
BRINGS A SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS WITH THE SFC/850 FORCING WHILE MID
LEVEL WAVE IS FURTHER EAST. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A MORE DIRECTLY
IMPACTING SHORTWAVE WITH NO QPF BEING GENERATED. WILL KEEP SMALL
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW. ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE WARMER AND SUGGESTS
MAYBE SOME RAIN MIXING IN WITH ANY PRECIP. GFS STAYS COLD ENOUGH
FOR MAINLY SNOW.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PROGS ARE SHOWING A SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS WITH WNW 850 FLOW. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW 850 TEMPS PUSHING 10C WITH 925 TEMPS ON THE
WARM SIDE OF ZERO AS WELL. SO COULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S
WITH THIS REGIME AND AGAIN POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR READINGS TO BE
HIGHER THAN SUPERBLEND GUID.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THERMAL RIDGE PROGGD TO REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO AT LEAST EARLY IN
THE DAY. SOME COLLAPSING OF 850/925 ISOTHERMS WITH SFC FRONT BEING
DRAGGED INTO THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR RETURN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD REST OF SOUTHEAST WI
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY WEAK FORCING MAY SHAKE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR PATCHY -ZL OVER PARTS OF SRN WI...MAINLY THIS MRNG. THINKING
KMSN WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO VERY LIGHT PRECIP THIS MRNG.
THINKING LOW CLOUDS WL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND WL
LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATER TODAY OR TNGT. SOME LIGHT FOG
LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH
LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MID-MORNING
DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS IN ICE FREE AREAS OF NEAR
SHORE WATERS. VESSEL IN MKE HARBOR REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
18KTS AT 08Z. SRN ZONE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SEVERAL HOURS BUT
WL LET DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE. TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER ON LATEST HI RES
MODIS IMAGE FROM SAT TO EVALUATE ICE COVERAGE IN NEAR SHORE
WATERS. THINKING THE WINDIER CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
AND WARMER TEMPS HELPED TO BREAK UP AND THIN THE ICE THAT WAS MORE
EXTENSIVE ON THE 19TH.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 192109
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
309 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SLIDE BY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS THAT THE BETTER FORCING WILL HAVE MOVED ON BY THE TIME
DECENT SATURATION OCCURS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER...WITH MAINLY
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. MOST PLACES WILL PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST A SHORT
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW GIVEN THAT SOUNDINGS DO EVENTUALLY SATURATE
WITH 300-400 MB OF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH LIFT AT ALL FOR SNOW GIVEN THIS SETUP.

MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
CURRENTLY SEEING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TRAILING THE SHORTWAVE
UPSTREAM...SO WILL PROBABLY SEE CLOUDS LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. EVEN
SO...WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MILDER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM SRN WI TO OHIO FOR WED NT AND
THU. WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AROUND THE HIGH MAINLY IN THE
925-850 MB LAYER. THIS MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF MO CLOUDY
SKIES DURING THIS TIME BUT NO PCPN.

FOR THU NT INTO FRI MORNING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BUT THE
STRONGEST PORTION OF IT WILL STAY TO THE WEST AS IT DIVES SWD AND
JOINS THE CIRCULATION OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING
SFC LOW THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY NEWD TO THE
EAST COAST. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
OF LGT SNOW THU NT AND MAY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING. ALSO THE LARGE
LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSING ACROSS THE SE USA WILL TURN THE WINDS TO
NELY FOR FRI AND FRI NT WITH LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCES OF
12-14C. THIS IS MARGINAL FOR LES BUT MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING
SOME LIGHT QPF AND OVERALL CONDITIONS APPEAR A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR LES THAN PRIOR DAYS. THUS INCREASED POPS SOME FOR
FRI AND FRI NT WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUM POSSIBLE.

TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WI SAT WITH SLY FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION FOR SAT NT AND SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EWD AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN GREAT PLAINS. THE SFC LOW MAY THEN
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN PASS ACROSS
THE STATE MON NT AND TUE WITH THE MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING A SHORTWAVE TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
AREA TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE WI/IL BORDER. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AND
BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...WITH
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. MAY SEE SOME LOWER CIGS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

.MARINE...

STILL SEEING A GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS VIA THE
LATEST MODIS IMAGE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. WAVES IN
GENERAL WILL BE LIMITED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS...BUT WILL BE ESPECIALLY LIMITED IN THESE ICY AREAS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 181127
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
227 AM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...MUCH BETTER SOLUTION AGREEMENT THE LAST COUPLE DAYS FOR
THE SHORT TERM AND IMPROVED MID TERM AGREEMENT...AND EVEN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ARCTIC. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE WINDS WELL IN THE SHORT TERM SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A BLEND LEANING A BIT MORE TOWARD THE STRONGER NAM
OUTPUT. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE A PATCH OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW MOVING OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...EVENING
AND OVER THE YUKON FLATS TUESDAY...BUT NONE INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO HANDLE THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY...BUT NUDGE IT WITH THE SREF TO GET
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES THAN WE USUALLY GET FROM THE OTHER
MODELS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LARGE COL OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A 505 DAM LOW OVER
SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST OVER NUIQSUT
THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND A
522 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST BROOKS RANGE MONDAY NIGHT
AND MOVES WEST OVER THE PLAINS AT 521 DAM BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND
TO KOTZEBUE SOUND BY TUESDAY EVENING AT 519 DAM...THEN DISSIPATES
OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ORIGINAL LOW
MOVES TO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND IS
ABSORBED BY A 480 DAM LOW THAT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. A 543
DAM HIGH OVER SIBERIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TO BE OVER 75N
180 BY THURSDAY MORNING. RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA WILL PUSH NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT.
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN AND A 520 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA TUESDAY WHILE A 511 DAM LOW IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. AT 850 HPA...THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM
PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE ARCTIC AND NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE
THIS MORNING...AND EAST OF ANAKTUVUK PASS IT WILL MOVE OVER THE
UPPER YUKON FLATS TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THE AIRMASS MODERATES
PRETTY RAPIDLY WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF 20 BELOW LEFTOVER BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THAT NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION
INTO THE WEEKEND.

SURFACE...RIDGING FROM A 1040 HIGH OVER SIBERIA REMAINS ACROSS
THE ARCTIC WITH A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON
TERRITORY. THE 1025 MB HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A 1013 MB LOW BANKS ISLAND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER
LOW INTO A 990 MB LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL SWING AROUND THE LOW TO
THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY DRAG EAST.
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO LIE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
WITH SEVERAL LOWS SPINNING AROUND. THE PRIMARY LOW IS A 975 MB LOW
NEAR 50N 155W. A 978 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. A 984 MB
LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO OFF THE COAST OF SITKA
BY TUESDAY MORNING AS IT WEAKENS TO 988 MB...THEN IS ABSORBED BY
THE MAIN LOW. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MAIN LOW WILL BE ABSORBED
BY A 969 MB LOW THAT IS MOVING NORTH AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AT 975 MB. WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND CHUKCHI SEA...THE BERING
STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND SEWARD PENINSULA.

SATELLITE...MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS IMAGES FROM SPORT AT 18/0852Z
AND 18/0S35Z SHOW QUITE STRATUS OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST EAST OF NUIQSUT THIS MORNING. NO INDICATION
OF IT MOVING...IF ANYTHING IT IS JUST MOVING SOUTH AND WILL PUSH
UP AGAINST THE BROOKS RANGE. EXPECT IT TO STICK AROUND AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING AND TROUGHING
PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. THERE IS ALSO SOME STRATUS
OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EAST OF EAGLE
SUMMIT...AS WELL AS SOME ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA
RANGE.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...MORE OF THE WINTERTIME NORM HERE
WITH THE STRATUS FLOATING AROUND. MAYBE A LITTLE LESS OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS WEST OF NUIQSUT. OF COURSE ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG AND OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE EAST OF
KUPARUK WHERE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15
MPH...AND SOUTH OF POINT LAY ON THE NORTHWEST COAST AND IN THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL OCCUR. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40
BELOW RANGE IN THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20Z
BELOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A LITTLE LULL IN THE WINDS THIS
MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL RAMP BACK UP IN MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER YUKON DELTA
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OR BE
CLEARING TODAY. A FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TUESDAY
EVENING AND SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM GALENA
TO KALTAG. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES
THEY WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN NORMAL AND REMAIN GUSTY IN THE HILLS
NORTH OF GALENA AND OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. LOCALLY
BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES TUCKED INTO THE
UPPER TANANA VALLEY...BUT THEY ARE NOT MOVING...JUST STUCK IN THE
LEE OF THE ALASKA RANGE. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORTYMILE
COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL SPREAD PRIMARILY FLURRIES OVER
THE AREA AS IT MOVES TO THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS AS FAR WEST AS FAIRBANKS...BUT NO SNOW. UP TO
2 INCHES OF SNOW LOCALLY IN THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND THE YUKON
FLATS. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINING ABOUT
THE SAME AS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WINDS ON SUMMITS INCREASING
AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. WEAK TANANA JET CONTINUES WITH
WINDS AROUND DELTA GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217-
AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ230.

SDB JAN 16

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 171106
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
206 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE SHORT TERM THE LAST
FEW RUNS. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT INTO THE MID TERM...BUT MAINLY
BECAUSE THE WEATHER PATTERN IS PRETTY STAGNANT WITH A BIG COL OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. THEY HAVE DONE WELL WITH THE WINDS IN THE SHORT
TERM SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND LEANING A BIT MORE TOWARD THE
STRONGER NAM OUTPUT.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LOW OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON YESTERDAY CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AND HAS CONTINUED SOUTHWEST OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE OVER ADAK BY MONDAY MORNING. A LARGE COL
REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO MID
WEEK. A 517 DAM LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEAUFORT SEA THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BANKS
ISLAND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST TO BARROW.
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST TODAY WILL PULL BACK WEST A
BIT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES WEST. RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA WILL PUSH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT THEN
BUILD WEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY. AT 850 HPA...THE 20
BELOW ISOTHERM PUSHES SOUTH OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC AND THE
EASTERN INTERIOR NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER BY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE...NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. RIDGING FROM A 1046 MB HIGH IN SIBERIAN
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER ALASKAS ARCTIC COAST...WHILE A
968ISH MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...SOUTH OF SAND POINT
WOBBLES AROUND. A COUPLE WEAK LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THEN BE ABSORBED BY THE MAIN
LOW...BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME. THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE ARCTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH A 1030
MB CENTER DEVELOPING OVER MACKENZIE BAY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
RIDGING OVER THE ARCTIC WILL PUSH A BIT SOUTH WHILE THE LOW WILL
PUSH NORTH A BIT PINCHING THE GRADIENT OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND
IN AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER TO THE BROOKS RANGE.
EXPECT...STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE
AND CHUKCHI SEA...THE BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND
SEWARD PENINSULA. THE STRONG WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK
BEFORE LAYING DOWN A LITTLE. WITH THIS PATTERN THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND UPPER TANANA
VALLEY...AND UPPER YUKON FLATS TUESDAY.

SATELLITE...MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT AT 17/0808Z
SHOWS MUCH LESS STRATUS THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OVER MOST OF THE
STATE...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY FLOATING AROUND OVER THE ARCTIC
PLAINS AND COAST THIS MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...THE STRATUS CONTINUES...AND IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL CHANGE ANYTIME SOON. EXPECT A FEW
BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...SOME PATCHY FOG...SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...SOME FLURRIES...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS COLD
AIR OVER THE ICE COVERED ARCTIC WATERS MOVES SOUTH. A FEW AREAS IN
THE ARCTIC PLAINS COULD SEE 40 BELOW LOWS BEGINNING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK...ALONG THE COAST LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S BELOW WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS BELOW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTHWEST
WINDS EAST OF KUPARUK.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
OVER THE AREA AND HELPED TO MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES A BIT THIS
MORNING...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP THROUGH THE DAY SO EXCEPT
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT OVER THE AREA.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY STRONG NORTH OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND...AS WELL AS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. NO CHANGES IN THE
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE AREA AND WILL KEEP THEM GOING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NOW...BUT SOME WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED INTO MID WEEK. A FEW PLACES ARE REPORTING
FLURRIES...BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY JUST LOFTED SNOW BY THE STRONG
WINDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES TUCKED INTO THE
UPPER TANANA VALLEY...BUT THEY ARE NOT MOVING...JUST STUCK IN THE
LEE OF THE ALASKA RANGE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING...SO CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGER WINDS
TO MAKE IT TO THE VALLEY FLOOR TODAY...SO THE INVERSION WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FAIRBANKS AREA. THE TANANA JET CONTINUES
TO BLOW AROUND DELTA JUNCTION WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
OVER THE SUMMITS EXPECT THE WINDS TO CONTINUE AND BECOME MORE
EASTERLY TODAY. WINDS MUCH LIGHTER IN Z218 SO WILL GO AHEAD AND
DROP THAT FROM THE ADVISORIES. NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN
TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT WHERE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING IT WILL BE A BIT
COOLER.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ208-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200.

SDB JAN 16

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 161106
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
206 AM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE
SHORT TERM AND THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS THEY MOVE
INTO THE MID TERM...BUT THE PATTERN IS NOT DYNAMIC AT ALL AND THE
MODELS ARE MOSTLY SMOOTHING OUT THE RIPPLES IN THE PATTERN THAT
WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THEY ALL AGREE THAT
THERE WILL BE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE UPPER NOATAK
AND KOBUK...LOWER YUKON DELTA...THE CHUKCHI SEA AND THE BERING
STRAIT.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LOW IN THE MIDDLE YUKON THIS MORNING AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST TO OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING....AND
OVER ADAK BY MONDAY MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOW THIS MORNING TO A 523 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES COAST AND A COL WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN
BANKS ISLAND AS IT DEEPENS TO 508 DAM BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN
GETS ABSORBED BY A 492 DAM LOW 400 NM NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND. THE
WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN DIG IN AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY AS COLD AIR IS PULLED
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. THE 540 DAM HIGH THAT WAS OVER NORTON SOUND
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST. WEAK RIDGING WILL PUSH WEST OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE COL WILL EXPAND TO COVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. AT 850 HPA...SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC COASTAL AREAS AND LEAKING
INTO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

SURFACE...NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RIDGING FROM A 1043 MB HIGH IN THE SIBERIAN ARCTIC CONTINUES
TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST...WHILE A 974 MB LOW IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC...SOUTH OF SAND POINT...CONTINUES TO SPIN. AS
THE WEEKEND CONTINUE THE RIDGE WILL PUSH A BIT SOUTH WHILE THE LOW
WILL PUSH NORTH A BIT TIGHTENING UP THE GRADIENT FROM THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR WEST. WITH THE GRADIENT BEING PINCHED EXPECT...STRONGER
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE AND CHUKCHI SEA...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN INTERIOR. WINDS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND LAY DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND THE BROOKS RANGE COULD SEE
THE STRONGER GUSTY WINDS INTO MID WEEK AT THIS TIME. ONE THING
THIS PATTERN DOES GUARANTEE IS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID WEEK IF ANY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SATELLITE...MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT AT 16/0725Z
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WIDE SWATH OF STRATUS OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EXTENDING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY...AND THE GOES
IMAGES INDICATE IT IS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...LOTS OF STRATUS...PATCHY FOG AND
FLURRIES...RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. WINDS WILL NOT GENERALLY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LOFT THE SNOW AND BRING VISIBILITY DOWN...BUT IT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE SNOW AROUND AND CREATE ISSUES WITH
DRIFTING SNOW AND POTENTIAL SNOW LOADING PROBLEMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE OVER THE COAST
AND PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. WINDS WILL
BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND GUSTS TO
AROUND 55 MPH WILL OCCUR. TEMPERATURES ON A SLOW DOWNWARD SPIRAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NOT CHANGING MUCH FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT QUITE WELL DEVELOPING THE
WINDS. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND UP WITH THE WINDS AND WILL ADD
Z208 AND Z213 TO THE MIX OF WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND HEADLINES
AS WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CREATE PROBLEMS STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS NOT INDICATING THE WINDS ABATING UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY SO WILL PUSH OUT THE END TIMES FOR MOST OF THE HAZARDS.
OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED IN ANY OF THE ZONES. STRATUS WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR MOST
AREAS TODAY...BUT MAY MIX OUT AS THE WINDS PICK UP.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS...STRATUS...AND MORE
STRATUS FLOATING AROUND THE AREA. MOST OF IT MOVED INTO THE AREA
FROM THE YUKON TERRITORY AND GOES IMAGES INDICATE IT IS MOVING
WEST...JUST DO NOT SEE A BACK SIDE TO IT SO EXPECT ITS DEMISE
WILL COME WITH THE INCREASING WINDS ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN A
COOLING TREND FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. STILL DO NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH. SOME STRONGER
WINDS POSSIBLY TO 40 MPH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
SUMMITS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR NORTHWEST OF FAIRBANKS AS THEY
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
EXPECTED AT INDIAN MOUNTAIN...GOBBLERS KNOB AND FINGER MOUNTAIN AS
WELL AS OTHER SUMMITS IN THE RAY MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND AROUND EAGLE SUMMIT. TANANA JET HAS NOT KICKED IN
YET BUT EXPECT IT TO THIS MORNING WITH WINDS PICKING UP
SATURDAY...SO GUSTY WINDS IN DELTA JUNCTION TO 45 MPH AND NENANA
TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ208-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

SDB JAN 16

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 151136
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
236 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAIN TODAY AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 24 HOURS BEFORE
WE SEE DIFFERENCES IN THE MAJOR FEATURES. STILL HAVING TROUBLE
HANDLING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BROOKS RANGE...BUT NOT AS
BAD AS THE SPAGHETTI YESTERDAY. THERE IS MUCH BETTER CONCENSUS ON
THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. PATTERN IS STILL PRETTY CONFUSED SO WILL CONTINUE
TO USE A BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS AND ONLY NUDGE THE CURRENT
FORECAST DATABASE A BIT.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A TROUGH WITH A 524 DAM LOW LIES OVER THE
CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS
MORNING. A RIDGE LIE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WITH 538 DAM
CENTERS OVER WESTERN COOK INLET AND SOUTHERN NORTON SOUND. THE
LOW WOBBLES AROUND A BIT AND MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWEST OVER THE
MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES OVER THE
PRIBILOF ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL GET PINCHED OFF
WITH A 541 DAM CENTER MOVING OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUING NORTHWEST INTO SIBERIA. THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CUTOFF RIDGE WILL START BUILDING BACK OVER THE INTERIOR
SATURDAY AND LIE FROM BURWASH LANDING YT TO KOTZEBUE SOUND BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT 850 HPA...SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES OVER
THE ARCTIC NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN MODELS ARE INDICATING A MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
FOR NOW.

SURFACE...WEAK NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
1003 MB LOW LIES IN THE NORTHERN GULF. NO MAJOR FEATURES TO REALLY
PICK OUT OF THE GUIDANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME GRADIENT PINCHING AS
THE MAIN LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES NORTH A BIT...SO EXPECT
SOME STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND CHUKCHI SEA...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR.

SATELLITE...MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT AT 15/0820Z SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS NORTH AND EAST OF TANANA IN THE
INTERIOR...OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND AND THE CHUKCHI SEA...AS WELL AS
THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. HARD TO DETERMINE THE MOVEMENT OF ANY OF
IT AT THIS TIME SINCE THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE IMAGES.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SATELLITE SHOWS THE STRATUS AND
THE GOES IR FROM 15/1030 SHOWS A BIG PATCH OF STRATUS OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC MOVING WEST...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT OR
THE STRATUS GOING AWAY ANYTIME SOON. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHWEST COAST FROM POINT LAY SOUTH TO PICK UP
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING TO NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 25 TO 40 MPH IN THOSE AREAS
WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH ELSEWHERE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM WHAT THE
MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BROOKS
RANGE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND MAY PRODUCE SOME
FLURRIES. WINDS IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA HAVE PICKED UP TO 15 TO
30 MPH GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH IN SOME AREAS EAST OF ANVIK AND WILL
DIMINISH A BIT SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE UPPER NOATAK AND KOBUK
NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY TO 20 TO 45
MPH AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WINDS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF ZONES 210...NORTHERN 212...AND NORTHERN
216 TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH SATURDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...BIGGEST ISSUE HERE IS WHERE IS ALL
THE STRATUS GOING TO GO. BIG PATCHES OF BLACK STRATUS DEVELOPED IN
THE AREA YESTERDAY AND THE 24HR MICROPHYSICS FROM 15/0820Z SHOWS
IT STILL FLOATING AROUND. HARD TO FIGURE ANY MOVEMENT ON IT AT
THIS TIME WITH ONLY A COUPLE IMAGES...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
MOVING ANYWHERE FAST SO EXPECT THAT IT WILL JUST DISSIPATE IN
PLACE EVENTUALLY. OF COURSE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE THIS TYPE OF
STRATUS AT ALL SO WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH IT. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TO 10 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. NO
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR WINDS OVER THE SUMMITS IN THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR NORTHWEST OF FAIRBANKS AS STILL EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE
LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH EXPECTED AT
INDIAN MOUNTAIN...GOBBLERS KNOB AND FINGER MOUNTAIN AS WELL AS
OTHER SUMMITS IN THE RAY MOUNTAINS...THE EXCEPTION HERE IS THEY
MAY NOT GET THAT GUSTY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND EAGLE
SUMMIT. EXPECT THE TANANA JET TO KICK IN LATE TONIGHT ALSO WITH
WINDS PICKING UP SATURDAY...SO GUSTY WINDS IN DELTA JUNCTION TO
45 MPH AND NENANA TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES AROUND FAIRBANKS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS NEAR 15 BELOW...BUT LOOK FOR WARMER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS
AROUND ZERO.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SDB JAN 16

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 141142
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
242 AM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 24 HOURS BEFORE WE SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MAJOR FEATURES. THE BIG ISSUE IS
THE HANDLING OF THE LOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND
ITS EVOLUTION AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWEST OVER THE PRIBILOFS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH THE CONFUSED PATTERN OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE MODELS AND NUDGE THE CURRENT FORECASTS A BIT.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A TROUGH WITH A 511 DAM LOW OVER THE BERING
STRAIT LIES SOUTHEAST TO SITKA AND WILL PULL BACK NORTHWEST AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 521 DAM
WITH THE TROUGH ONLY EXTENDING TO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY. THE LOW
WOBBLE AROUND A BIT AND DEPENDING ON THE MODEL WILL LIE SOMEWHERE
OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AT 524 DAM WITH A SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AT 528 DAM. TO THE SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST AND A 538
DAM CENTER WILL DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY OVER SLEETMUTE. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT BREAKS AWAY FROM THE MAIN RIDGE
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR
LATE FRIDAY. CONFUSION WITH THE LOWS OVER THE BROOKS RANGE CENTRAL
INTERIOR CONTINUES...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE LOWS CONSOLIDATING
OVER THE NORTON SOUND REGION AND MOVING SOUTHWEST OVER THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE...A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
WITH WEAK NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A 1003
MB LOW LIES IN THE NORTHERN GULF. A 992 MB LOW WILL DRIFT WEST
OVER KAMCHATKA. A 974 MB LOW LIES JUST SOUTH OF ATKA...A 993 MB
LOW LIES OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...ALL OF THESE LOWS WILL
BE ABSORBED INTO A LOW THAT MOVES FROM 42N 170W TO 48N 152W BY
FRIDAY MORNING...AND TO 51N 156W BY SATURDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSISTS NORTH OF 75N IN THE HIGH ARCTIC.

SATELLITE...MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT AT 14/0917Z
NOT MUCH HELP THIS TIME AROUND OVER THE ARCTIC AS HIGH CLOUDS
MASK MOST OF THE AREA. IT DOES INDICATE A PRETTY GOOD PATCH OF
STRATUS OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND PATCHES OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS
OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS...AS WELL AS
THE LOWER YUKON DELTA.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...PRETTY HARD TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY
WHAT WILL HAPPEN OVER THE AREA...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA...IT IS THE ARCTIC. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WITH SOME
PERIODS OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE AREA. A 1011 MB LOW WILL
MOVE OVER DEMARCATION POINT LATER TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE.
NORTHEAST WINDS PERSIST IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WEST OF KUPARUK.
WITH THE LOW MOVING TO DEMARCATION POINT THE WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY NORTHEAST...BUT WILL SWING AROUND THE DIAL AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST THEN RETURN TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...998 MB LOW OVER THE BERING
STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE ENDING
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA AND
DISSIPATES BY FRIDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO MAJOR FEATURES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS ON THE COAST WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND. THE
EXCEPTION ON THE COAST WILL BE THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WHICH WILL
SEE WINDS PICK UP TO 15 TO 30 MPH EAST OF ANVIK LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. ANOTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE THE UPPER
NOATAK...KOBUK NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
THE WEEKEND TO 20 TO 45 MPH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WEAK BAROCLINIC AREA ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
PERSIST WITH IT. A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING AROUND
FAIRBANKS...WITH FLURRIES CONTINUING TO THE NORTH AND EAST WHILE
THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR TODAY...THEN SLOW CLEARING OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST TO 10 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THE
SUMMITS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR NORTHWEST OF FAIRBANKS WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH EXPECTED AT
INDIAN MOUNTAIN...GOBBLERS KNOB AND FINGER MOUNTAIN AS WELL AS
OTHER SUMMITS IN THE RAY MOUNTAINS AND ALL SUMMITS IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS INCLUDING EAGLE SUMMIT WILL SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TANANA JET PICKS UP LATE SATURDAY SO GUSTY
WINDS IN DELTA JUNCTION TO 45 MPH AND NENANA TO 25 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED WHEN THEY DO PICK UP. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS NEAR 15
BELOW... BUT LOOK FOR WARMER CONDITIONS ON THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

SDB JAN 16

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KPIH 110937
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
237 AM MST MON JAN 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SAT IMAGERY...INCLUDING
MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS...SHOWS EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS MORNING AND EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS UP TO THE WYOMING BORDER. OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS SHOW
GENERALLY IMPROVED VISIBILITY OVER LATE EVENING. STILL EXPECT TO
SEE POCKETS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN THIS
MORNING...SO KEEPING DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT TIL 16Z. NAM/GFS
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL COMING OUT OF THIS LOW CLOUD
DECK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DROP TEMPS TO -12C TO -15C WITHIN THE
MOIST LAYER...PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR ICE FORMATION...BUT
ATMOSPHERE LACKS ANY LARGE-SCALE LIFT TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION. MODELS TRACK A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE WEST. MEAN UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY WHILE MODELS PUSH IN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
WA/OR COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THAT NIGHT. HINSBERGER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS FINALLY COMING
TOGETHER ON THU...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ON THE SAME PAGE WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LINGERING INTO FRI. MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE ON SAT WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
ID WHILE THE GFS KNOCKS IT DOWN. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS SPREADING
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HRS
SLOWER. COMPARED TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS IS AN
IMPROVEMENT. PRECIP DIMINISHES SUN NIGHT PER ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
AGAIN FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND SPREADS SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. WILL JUST
KEEP LOW CHANCES IN THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND GO DRIER ON MON THRU MON
NIGHT WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. NOT SEEING ANY MAJOR
CHANGES IN TEMPS. HEDGES

.AVIATION...LOW CIGS AGAIN PLAGUE THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY THIS MORN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED. MAY
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN...BUT WITH NOTHING TO SCOUR OUT THE
MOISTURE...LOW CIGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AGAIN TONIGHT. ONLY KSUN
SEEMS TO ESCAPE THE LOW CIGS...BUT SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE CLDS TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTH. KSUN COULD SEE THE LOW
CIGS EDGE IN BRIEFLY. HEDGES

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR IDZ019-020.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KSEW 311606
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRINGING HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHEN IT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 590 DM OVER WESTERN WA...EXPECT
TEMPS TODAY TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE BUNCH...WITH A LARGE SWATH OF
HIGHS IN THE 90S SEATTLE SOUTHWARD. HIGHS AROUND THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE SURFACE FLOW IS LIGHT
NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY FALL AND
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL DROP A FEW DMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY AS WELL...BUT STILL REMAIN VERY WARM. LOWS
EARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS IN THE PUGET SOUND AREA WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM TOO...IN THE MID 60S. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

RECENT MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING THAT A MARINE PUSH WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY EVENING...AROUND THE TIME THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRES.
GALES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRAIT AND MARINE AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THIS WILL START A TREND OF MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. JSMITH

.LONG TERM...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN MORE AND SHIFT EWD OVER THE
ROCKIES BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS SE TOWARD THE PAC NW.
LOWER HEIGHTS AND ONSHORE FLOW MEAN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
LOW 80S AROUND PUGET SOUND...WITH 70S ACROSS THE N INTERIOR AND
STRAIT. HIGHS AT THE COAST MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70.

MODELS TAKE THE UPPER LOW SWD OFF THE PAC NW AND SRN B.C. COASTS ON
TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONGER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY FALL TO THE 70S OVER ALL THE LOWLANDS...NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE LOW COULD MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IF THE
LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AS SOME MODELS INDICATE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MERCER/JSMITH

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
DRY AND STABLE.

THERE IS A THIN LINE OF SHALLOW STRATUS ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST
AND IN THE WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS MORNING...BRINGING
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD RETREAT OFF THE COAST BY LATE
MORNING...THEN RETURN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE.

KSEA...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND MOSTLY 4-10 KT.

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOWER PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS EVENING.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...AND GALE FORCE WESTERLIES
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER...A CRITICAL PERIOD FOR FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES OVER
ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...WITH VERY DRY AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE
DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...ELEVATED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE FEELING THE ADDED EFFECT
OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY...WITH BOTH MID-LEVEL AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES
5 CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MODIS IMAGERY AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH INDICATE A PICKUP IN THE ACTIVITY
LEVEL OF ONGOING FIRES IN BOTH OLYMPIC AND NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL
PARKS SINCE YESTERDAY. WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING CONSIDERING BOTH
THE DRYNESS OF AIR MASS AND THE EFFECTS OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY.
THIS IS THE KIND OF WEATHER SETUP THAT HELPS SMALL FIRES GROW TO
BECOME LARGE FIRES. HANER

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF
THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
CASCADES AND OLYMPICS ABOVE 2000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT ZONE 150...CENTRAL
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 250838
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER ERN NEBRASKA AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND FASTER FLOW TO THE NORTH...CONTINUE TO
GENERATE LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS FEED OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE NEBRASKA UPPER
LOW FURTHER WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH...SECOND LOW CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHEAST CONUS IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AREA BY
LATE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER SRN WI INTO TONIGHT BUT
MAY THIN AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS NE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER SWD.

UNDER PARTLY SUNNY TO M/CLDY SKIES AND ELY SFC FLOW...EXPECT SIMILAR
DAYTIME TEMPS TO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER READINGS BY LAKE MI. RECENT
MODIS IMAGERY AND BUOY OBS MEASURED LAKE MI SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

KBUU HAS BEEN REPORTING PERIODS OF DENSE FOG SINCE 06Z. PASSING
SHERIFF REPORTS DENSE FOG VERY LOCALIZED IN THIS AREA WITH PATCHY
LIGHT FOG ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
DEWPTS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HIGHER IN ERN CWA SO EXPECT MORE
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING JUST OFF
SURFACE...FOG MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED
THINNING OF CIRRUS.

.SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES SATURDAY WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
EARLY SATURDAY WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW...SO NOT CONCERNED
ABOUT PRECIP AT THIS TIME. DID BUMP SKY COVER UP QUITE A BIT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF A LOW LEVEL
CLOUD DECK. LOOKS LIKE MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY
OUT A BIT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE
WARMEST DAY LIKELY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF BRINING IT THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE FRONT NOT REACH ILLINOIS UNTIL EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THE CANADIAN TIMING IS IN BETWEEN...THOUGH MORE
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO
MID/LATE WEEK WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE ARE A LOT OF DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
TEMPS...TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS...AND SO ON FOR THE TUE-THU TIME
FRAME. POPS ENDED UP SPREAD OUT QUITE A BIT GIVEN THE VARIOUS
MODEL SOLUTIONS. GENERALLY STUCK TOWARD THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF
MODELS FOR TEMPS. OVERALL THOUGH...WILL EVENTUALLY SEE COOLER
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LIGHT SFC WINDS MAY ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER VSBYS FROM FOG
THRU EARLY MRNG. HOWEVER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AFFECTING TAF SITES TONIGHT.

.MARINE...

PERSISTENT NORTH TO EAST SFC WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY
BEFORE VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW
20KTS THRU THE WEEKEND. WITH MOSTLY ONSHORE WINDS AND LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT UPWELLING...FOG...IF ANY DEVELOPS...SHOULD REMAIN
PATCHY. ATWATER BEACH BUOY CONTINUES TO REPORT WATER TEMP AROUND 60
AND LATEST AVAILABLE MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED WATER TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SFC DEWPTS LIKELY TO REMAIN CLOSE TO LAKE
WATER TEMP REDUCING FOG THREAT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 241923 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
223 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN REMAINS UNDER WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WITH A 100 KT
JET OVER QUEBEC. UPSTREAM UPPER AND SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO STALL
AND WEAKEN SO PLESANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER
THE REGION FROM UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION. EXPECT CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT IN REGARDS TO FOG. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 3 DEGREES OR LESS. MESO
MODELS ALSO SHOWING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN BRINGING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WELL INLAND SO LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS ALSO POSSBLE IN
THE EAST.

.SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH FROM NEW ENGLAND
BACK WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FLOW ALOFT IS VERY
WEAK AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY
/THURSDAY/ WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS TIME. WE COULD SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THAT DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPS STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DISCUSSION MENTIONED THE THREAT OF MORE CLOUDS
FROM THAT SOUTHERN WAVE AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS MORE MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH THAT APPROACH. THAT WEAK LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
MAKE IT TO ABOUT NORTHERN INDIANA/NE ILLINOIS BEFORE GETTING
PICKED UP BY THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UP HERE AND SHOVED OFF TO
THE EAST. SO WE GET A GLANCING BLOW AND IT SHOULD ONLY HAVE CLOUDS
AS THE MAIN CONCERN. ANY PRECIP...AT THIS POINT...LOOKS TO STAY
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THOSE CLOUDS COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH
MONDAY. TEMPS REMAIN VERY MILD.

.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE UPPER RIDGING/WEAK FLOW REGIME FINALLY COLLAPSES SOUTH IN
DEFERENCE TO A DIGGING BROAD CANADIAN TROF AND MUCH FASTER
WESTERLY FLOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN TIER OF THE U.S. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. PRECIP
AMOUNTS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANY DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SOME AREAS MAY EVEN STAY DRY WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD ARRIVE BY THIS PERIOD.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THE GFS WANTS TO DRY US OUT THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG SHOT OF H8 WARM/MOIST
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AND IT TAKES ITS TIME
MOVING THROUGH. THUS...WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF IT ENDED UP BE DRY THIS
PERIOD.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CONDITIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. A COOL AND MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN FAR EASTERN WI
WILL LIKELY BRING IN FOG FROM THE LAKE ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN
STARTING THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT COULD SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AT MKE...UES...AND ENW AT TIMES DUE TO DENSE FOG. PATHCY
FOG LIKELY ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO UPSTREAM
PRECIPITATION.

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS 24 HOURS AS A COOL
AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT FOG IS LIKELY
AGAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODIS IMAGERY
SHOWS WATER TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST FROM MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN
SO THIS IS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FOG. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 241537 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1037 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
CONDITIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. A COOL AND MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN FAR EASTERN WI
WILL LIKELY BRING IN SOME FOG FROM THE LAKE ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IT MAY EVEN START
THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA DUE TO UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY MORNING.

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS 24 HOURS AS A COOL AND
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST FROM MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN SO THIS IS THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FOG.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /327 AN CDT THU SEP 24 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW
AND BKN-OVC CIRRUS SHIELD LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO TNGT. MAJORITY OF
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY DUE TO DRIER LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW. HOWEVER
BOUTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION LIKELY TO SPEW MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS
ACROSS SRN WI THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT. MORE WIDESPREAD CIRRUS AND
ELY FLOW WL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR ABV NORMAL FOR 9/24.

SFC WINDS BRIEFLY TURNED NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KTS DURING WED EVENING
WHICH CARRIED AN AREA OF DENSE FOG AND 1/4SM VSBYS ACROSS THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES. THIS AREA OF DENSE FOG REMAINS TRANSIENT AND IS
MOVING W-NW DUE TO E-SE LOW LEVEL STEERING WINDS. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG AT 08Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SBM TO JUST WEST OF ETB TO
JUST WEST OF UES TO BUU. THE FOG HAS NOT YET REACHED MKX WHICH IS
IN FAR EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON CO. UNFORTUNATELY...HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO OBSCURE WWD MOVEMENT OF FOG AREA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY FOG MENTION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN THE
EAST DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM MARINE LAYER
WHICH HAS PUSHED INLAND.

SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ELY FLOW RESULTING IN
MOIST MARINE LAYER AFFECTING ERN AREAS. HENCE WL ADD PATCHY FOG
MENTION AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EAST AND NORTH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
CONTINUED QUIET AND MILD WX CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL FLOW VERY WEAK.
IN THE LOW LEVELS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS WITH ESE WINDS. 925
TEMPS BOTH DAYS 16- 17C SO LOW/MID 70S STILL LOOK GOOD.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. NOTED AN UPTICK
IN LOW LEVEL RH TO 80 PCT PLUS THIS PERIOD WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SSE. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS ENDS UP BEING A
STRATUS FIELD THAT GETS PULLED NORTH INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL
NOT MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO SKY/TEMPS BUT DID INCREASE A
CLOUDS A BIT MORE INTO THE EAST WHERE THE RH MAX IS FOCUSING.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE A BIT THOUGH THE
BEST FORCING PROGGD TO BE TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO THE THE STRONGEST
MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX. GFS AND NOW THE ECMWF SHOW 925 SW WIND
REGIME WITH WARM 925 TEMPS. DEPENDING ON THE MODELS VALUES RANGE
FROM 19-23C...SO WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PROGGD TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH...THIS LIKELY TO BE A RATHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
STILL A LOT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO SPEED OF COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FAST SOLUTION...BRINGING THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING A TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FROPA. ONE
THING THERE IS AGREEMENT ON IS THAT BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE POST-
FRONTAL IN NATURE. THE LARGE DISPARITY IN FRONTAL TIMING CARRIES
WITH IT A HUGE SPREAD IN THERMAL PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH THE GFS
PUSHING A PREFRONTAL 25C AND THE ECMWF WITH A COOLER POST FRONTAL
REGIME OF AROUND 12C. SO FOR NOW WILL BE GOING THE SUPERBLEND
ROUTE AND HOPE THIS TIMING GETS IRONED OUT IN FUTURE RUNS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND MOIST MARINE LAYER
CONTRIBUTED TO AREA OF DENSE FOG THAT MOVED THROUGH ERN TAF SITES
SINCE LATE WED EVE. DENSE FOG AREA HAS REMAINED TRANSIENT AND IS
MOVING W-NW. DO NOT THINK IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER TO AFFECT KMSN.
08Z SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING MUCH FOG REDEVELOPMENT
YET...HOWEVER LIGHT E-NE FLOW TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MRNG. LATEST
RAP13 DOES SHOW WIND CONVERGENCE OVER SE WI AROUND 12Z. HENCE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE DAYTIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING TO ERN TAF SITES LATER TNGT.

MARINE...ATWATER BEACH BUOY MEASURING LAKE SFC TEMP AT 60F
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY
IN LAKE SFC TEMP ON WED INTO EARLY THIS MRNG...DEPENDING ON SLIGHT
WIND DIRECTION VARIATIONS FROM NORTH TO EAST. THE NORTH WINDS
APPEAR TO HAVE CAUSED A PERIOD OF UPWELLING AND COOLER WATER TO
REACH LAKE SFC OVERNIGHT. THESE COOLER LAKE TEMPS CONTRIBUTED TO
AN AREA OF FOG WHICH PUSHED INLAND WED EVE AS SFC WINDS VEERED TO
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TODAY REDUCING THE THREAT FOR MORE
UPWELLING. HOWEVER THE WINDS MAY BACK TO THE NORTH BRIEFLY AGAIN
THIS EVENING WHICH MAY ALLOW ANOTHER BATCH OF FOG TO FORM OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TNGT. OTHERWISE...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
ONSHORE AND LIGHT THRU SAT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 240827
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY FOG MENTION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN THE
EAST DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM MARINE LAYER
WHICH HAS PUSHED INLAND.

SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ELY FLOW RESULTING IN
MOIST MARINE LAYER AFFECTING ERN AREAS. HENCE WL ADD PATCHY FOG
MENTION AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EAST AND NORTH.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
CONTINUED QUIET AND MILD WX CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL FLOW VERY WEAK.
IN THE LOW LEVELS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS WITH ESE WINDS. 925
TEMPS BOTH DAYS 16- 17C SO LOW/MID 70S STILL LOOK GOOD.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. NOTED AN UPTICK
IN LOW LEVEL RH TO 80 PCT PLUS THIS PERIOD WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SSE. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS ENDS UP BEING A
STRATUS FIELD THAT GETS PULLED NORTH INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL
NOT MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO SKY/TEMPS BUT DID INCREASE A
CLOUDS A BIT MORE INTO THE EAST WHERE THE RH MAX IS FOCUSING.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE A BIT THOUGH THE
BEST FORCING PROGGD TO BE TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO THE THE STRONGEST
MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX. GFS AND NOW THE ECMWF SHOW 925 SW WIND
REGIME WITH WARM 925 TEMPS. DEPENDING ON THE MODELS VALUES RANGE
FROM 19-23C...SO WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PROGGD TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH...THIS LIKELY TO BE A RATHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
STILL A LOT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO SPEED OF COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FAST SOLUTION...BRINGING THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING A TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FROPA. ONE
THING THERE IS AGREEMENT ON IS THAT BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE POST-
FRONTAL IN NATURE. THE LARGE DISPARITY IN FRONTAL TIMING CARRIES
WITH IT A HUGE SPREAD IN THERMAL PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH THE GFS
PUSHING A PREFRONTAL 25C AND THE ECMWF WITH A COOLER POST FRONTAL
REGIME OF AROUND 12C. SO FOR NOW WILL BE GOING THE SUPERBLEND
ROUTE AND HOPE THIS TIMING GETS IRONED OUT IN FUTURE RUNS.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND MOIST MARINE LAYER
CONTRIBUTED TO AREA OF DENSE FOG THAT MOVED THROUGH ERN TAF SITES
SINCE LATE WED EVE. DENSE FOG AREA HAS REMAINED TRANSIENT AND IS
MOVING W-NW. DO NOT THINK IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER TO AFFECT KMSN.
08Z SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING MUCH FOG REDEVELOPMENT
YET...HOWEVER LIGHT E-NE FLOW TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MRNG. LATEST
RAP13 DOES SHOW WIND CONVERGENCE OVER SE WI AROUND 12Z. HENCE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE DAYTIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING TO ERN TAF SITES LATER TNGT.

.MARINE...ATWATER BEACH BUOY MEASURING LAKE SFC TEMP AT 60F
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY
IN LAKE SFC TEMP ON WED INTO EARLY THIS MRNG...DEPENDING ON SLIGHT
WIND DIRECTION VARIATIONS FROM NORTH TO EAST. THE NORTH WINDS
APPEAR TO HAVE CAUSED A PERIOD OF UPWELLING AND COOLER WATER TO
REACH LAKE SFC OVERNIGHT. THESE COOLER LAKE TEMPS CONTRIBUTED TO
AN AREA OF FOG WHICH PUSHED INLAND WED EVE AS SFC WINDS VEERED TO
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TODAY REDUCING THE THREAT FOR MORE
UPWELLING. HOWEVER THE WINDS MAY BACK TO THE NORTH BRIEFLY AGAIN
THIS EVENING WHICH MAY ALLOW ANOTHER BATCH OF FOG TO FORM OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TNGT. OTHERWISE...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
ONSHORE AND LIGHT THRU SAT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 232025
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WEAK MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE REGION AS 100KT
JET SHIFTS EAST OVER EASTERN CANADA. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. CIRRUS
CLOUDS LIKELY MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST CWA DUE TO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING FOG TONIGHT COMING IN FROM THE
LAKE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENT OF ANY FOG DUE TO
THE INFLUX OF DRIER SOUTHEAST FLOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MENTION OF FOG
TO THE FAR NORTHEAST AREA WHERE THERE IS THE GREATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. DENSE FOG AGAIN LIKELY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

WEAK MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION/VORTICITY MAX OVER WESTERN IOWA SHEARS
OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. ARCING THE JET STREAM WELL NORTH INTO CANADA. WITH
THE STORM TRACK FOLLOWING THE UPPER JET WELL NORTH...WESTERN FLANK
OF BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
KEEPING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN UNDER A DRY SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW.

THIS DRY FLOW WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWARD SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION
SHIELD AROUND CUT-OFF CLOSED LOW DRIFTING NWWD FROM THE SE U.S. TO
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH FRIDAY 925 MB TEMPS ONLY A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...THEN BACK UP FOR SATURDAY. THIS
BRINGS MID-70 HIGHS INLAND ON FRIDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
SATURDAY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW...THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S BOTH DAYS. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL ALSO BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM

MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AS A SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THAT INDUCES A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DIGS A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER NEUTRALLY-TILTED WAVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHARPER SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THAT DRAGS A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS SRN
WI WHILE THE OTHER MODELS KEEP PCPN LIMITED TO NORTHERN WI WHERE
BOUNDARY STALLS/WASHES OUT...AWAITING A NEGATIVELY-TILTED WAVE TO
SWING THROUGH...DROPPING THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE DIFFERING SCENARIOS ALSO
HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AS ECMWF DROPS THICKNESSES FROM 570
DM MONDAY TO BETWEEN 558 AND 561 DM BY TUESDAY AM...WHILE THE SLOWER
WARMER GFS KEEPS THICKNESSES AT OR ABOVE 570 DM UNTIL THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL FOLLOW BLENDED SOLUTION THAT BRINGS SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN
MAINLY TO THE NE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE ENTIRE CWA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
SW WEDNESDAY ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WARM-AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN
PCPN IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE FASTER
ECMWF.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG TONIGHT IN
THE EAST COMING OFF THE LAKE MAINLY FROM MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRIER
SOUTHEAST FLOW. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WOULD AFFECT TAF SITES
AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST WI AND WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO CENTRAL WI ON THURSDAY.

.MARINE... SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING MAINLY MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND FORECAST DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED SOME FOG OR HAZE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SHEBOYGAN
COUNTY NEARSHORE AREA AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN THAT AREA SO FOR NOW DECIDED TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE SHEBOYGAN
COUNTY NEARSHORE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 231538 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1038 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG TONIGHT IN THE EAST COMING OFF THE
LAKE...HOWEVER THINKING IT IS NOT LIKELY SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO DRY. BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL WI BUT WILL THEY WILL BE LIMITED
TO SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WI DUE TO DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW.

.MARINE...
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
THINKING IT IS NOT LIKELY SINCE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO DRY. MODIS
IMAGERY SHOWING WATER TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S NEAR THE SHORE TO MID
50S NEAR THE OPEN WATER WHICH IS WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF FORECAST DEW
POINTS...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS. OTRW...WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG TRANSITIONING BOUNDARY/REMNANTS OF FRONT/
CONTRIBUTING TO SCT-BKN STRATOCU/ALTOCU OVER CENTRAL WI. THESE MID
CLOUDS BRUSHING FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA. SC MAY EXPAND NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT GENERAL DECREASING TREND OF 925-850RH EXPECTED
TODAY FROM BOTH HRRR AND RAP. ENUF LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH TO ALLOW
CU DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH AND WEST.
OTHER CONCERN IS UPSTREAM CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM PLAINS CONVECTION.
LIKELY THAT FIRST BATCH OF CIRRUS KNOCKING ON DOOR OF WEST
CENTRAL WI WL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF SRN WI THIS MRNG BEFORE
COMPLETELY THINNING. MORE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER WRN IA/MN
EXPECTED LATER TODAY WHICH WILL GENERATE ANOTHER SWATH OF CIRRUS
LIKELY TO AFFECT PARTS OF SRN WI LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
POTENTIAL CLOUDS AND MORE SOUTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LEVELS REACHED ON TUE.

INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVANCING INTO SRN WI FOR TONIGHT.
HENCE HELD BACK ON FOG MENTION TONIGHT DESPITE MOST MESO MODELS
SHOWING DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER ERN CWA AFT MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...AND AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
DRY WITH EACH WARM...MILD DRY DAY. ONE FLY IN OINTMENT IS LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW POSSIBLY BRINGING IN MOISTER MARINE LAYER.
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE LOWER ON FOG THREAT IN ERN CWA LATER TNGT.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW REGIME SHOWS A RATHER CHAOTIC VORT REGIME
WITHIN THE OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL IN ALL THE DRY
LOW LEVEL E-SE FLOW WITH SFC/850 ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY
LOOK. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO SHOWING A VRY DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS
SHOWS MORE MOISTURE AOA 15K FEET. NAM EVEN DRIER.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
QUIET AND MILD PATTERN PERSISTS. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY
SETTING UP MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO
BE SUNDAY AS 925 TEMPS GET CLOSE TO 20C.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN SLOWER THAN THE PRIOR RUN...AND KEEPS
SRN WI DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GEM LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE
ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL SPEED BUT THE 00Z GFS IS STILL ABOUT
A DAY BEHIND THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS ON
MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ALREADY SHOWING CAA THIS PERIOD. SO STILL SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES TO GET RESOLVED WITH RESPECT TO FROPA TIMING...BUT
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF
IS INDEED TRENDING SLOWER BUT STILL A WIDE GAP REMAINS. GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE
OUT THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SOME LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT TAF SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A VFR PERIOD EXPECTED WITH MORE
SE WINDS. SOME CONCERN OVER THREAT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG IN ERN
AREAS LATER TONIGHT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

MARINE...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ZONE /LMZ643/ DUE
TO COOLER LAKE WATER LOCATED IN THIS AREA AS SHOWN BY MODIS IMAGERY
FROM AROUND 16Z/TUE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WNDS WL BECOME MORE E
TO NE AND MAY ALLOW THE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TONIGHT OVER MORE OF THE NEARSHORE
AREA.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 230821
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
321 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW REGIME SHOWS A RATHER CHAOTIC VORT REGIME
WITHIN THE OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL IN ALL THE DRY
LOW LEVEL E-SE FLOW WITH SFC/850 ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY
LOOK. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO SHOWING A VRY DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS
SHOWS MORE MOISTURE AOA 15K FEET. NAM EVEN DRIER.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
QUIET AND MILD PATTERN PERSISTS. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY
SETTING UP MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO
BE SUNDAY AS 925 TEMPS GET CLOSE TO 20C.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN SLOWER THAN THE PRIOR RUN...AND KEEPS
SRN WI DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GEM LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE
ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL SPEED BUT THE 00Z GFS IS STILL ABOUT
A DAY BEHIND THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS ON
MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ALREADY SHOWING CAA THIS PERIOD. SO STILL SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES TO GET RESOLVED WITH RESPECT TO FROPA TIMING...BUT
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF
IS INDEED TRENDING SLOWER BUT STILL A WIDE GAP REMAINS. GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE
OUT THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SOME LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT TAF SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A VFR PERIOD EXPECTED WITH MORE
SE WINDS. SOME CONCERN OVER THREAT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG IN ERN
AREAS LATER TONIGHT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

.MARINE...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ZONE /LMZ643/ DUE
TO COOLER LAKE WATER LOCATED IN THIS AREA AS SHOWN BY MODIS IMAGERY
FROM AROUND 16Z/TUE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WNDS WL BECOME MORE E
TO NE AND MAY ALLOW THE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TONIGHT OVER MORE OF THE NEARSHORE
AREA.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 221609 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1109 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

.UPDATE...

AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WAS SLOWLY MIXING OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AS IT MOVED INTO
DRIER AIR TO THE EAST. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 850 MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS FROM MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR TO THE EAST SHOULD LIMIT
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT.

HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TRACK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...GIVEN 925
MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS. LAKE BREEZE WILL COOL THINGS
OFF SOMEWHAT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER AT
MADISON AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP AT WAUKESHA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. VFR CATEGORY CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED. MILWAUKEE
AND KENOSHA MAY NOT SEE THIS DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL SEE SOUTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOP WITH LAKE BREEZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AT MADISON. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY. THE
EASTERN SITES MAY SEE THESE CLOUDS MOVE IN AS WELL TONIGHT AND
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.

LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT TAF SITES IN THE 08Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY PERIOD. MVFR
TO IFR CATEGORY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT MADISON AND KENOSHA...MORE
VFR/MVFR AT MILWAUKEE AND WAUKESHA. IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER THERE IS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

.MARINE...

SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...WITH SOME MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE WATER. DEW POINTS
DO NOT GET ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SO NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

LIGHT WINDS AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM MARINE LAYER CAUSING FOG IN SOME
COUNTIES ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HOWEVER WEBCAMS SHOW THE FOG REMAINS
QUITE PATCHY. FURTHER INLAND...ANY FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
SUSCEPTIBLE LOW AREAS AND WI RIVER VALLEY. MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY
IS UPSTREAM STRATUS APPROACHING SOUTHWEST WI FROM ERN IA. STRATUS
WELL DEPICTED BY HIGHER RH IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ON ALL SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. FLOW AT THIS LEVEL CONTINUES TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN AND BACKING BACK TO THE
SOUTH. 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS RECENT THIN SPOTS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS FIELD FARTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL IA...BUT SCT-BKN STRATUS
STILL EXPANDING EAST TOWARD SOUTHWEST WI/FAR NW IL. ALL GUIDANCE
CARRIES HIGHER RH INTO NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING...AND SOME ACROSS
THE EAST THIS AFTN. HIGHER RH WILL BE FIGHTING DRY AIR OVER THE
AREA BUT THINK FAR NORTHWEST CWA WILL HAVE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN
TODAY. CUT MAX TEMP SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHWEST AS WELL DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON HOW FAR EAST BKN CLOUDS WL TRACK
TODAY...BUT COULD END UP FROM SBM TO JUST WEST OF MKE BEFORE
THINNING.

UPSTREAM WEAK CDFNT OVER MN WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EWD TODAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL WI TNGT. WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THIS FRONT MAY
RESULT IN MORE STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...OR
STRATUS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHOULD ALSO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS WITHOUT
THICKER STRATUS. DUE TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE ABV 5K FT AND
EXTREMELY WEAK FORCING...NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SAGS INTO SRN WI. MID LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES.
DRY SE FEED CONTINUES WITH SURFACE/850 ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. WILL GO
WITH THE DRY LOOK PER THE GFS/ECMWF.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW REGIME SHOWS A RATHER CHAOTIC VORT REGIME
WITHIN THE OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL IN ALL THE DRY SE
FLOW WITH LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AND STARTS TO HEAD
INTO THE EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY. 00Z ECMWF A BIT QUICKER ON
APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR WEST...BUT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
WITH A LITTLE UPTICK IN 925 WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WITH A BIT OF A BOOST IN THE 925 TEMPS AS WELL.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
00Z ECMWF CONTINUES A QUICKER PACE TO APPCH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GENERATING SOME SHRA WITH FROPA. MEANWHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH FRONT HANGING BACK IN THE PLAINS AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WI WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
HAS IT INTO THE OH VLY. WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID FOR
NOW WHICH IS LEANING TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...UPSTREAM VFR STRATUS OVER IA MOVING TOWARD
SOUTHERN WI...AND EXPECTING SCT-BKN ST TO AFFECT KMSN FOR A TIME
TODAY. POSSIBLE THAT STRATUS BEGINS TO AFFECT ERN TAF SITES THIS
AFTN AND EVENING. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KENW BUT WEBCAMS
SHOW THIS FOG TO BE VERY PATCHY. FOG SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFT 12Z BUT MORE PATCHY FOG LIKELY TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHTER
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
STRATUS MAY HANG ON OR EXPAND ACROSS SRN WI TNGT AS WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

MARINE...MODIS IMAGE FROM AROUND 17Z/21 SHOW NEARSHORE LAKE SFC
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER EAST
OF SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. WL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVER NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS WEAK SFC FRONT BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF SHEBOYGAN TONIGHT AND SURFACE MOISTURE
INCREASES.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 220830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SAGS INTO SRN WI. MID LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES.
DRY SE FEED CONTINUES WITH SURFACE/850 ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. WILL GO
WITH THE DRY LOOK PER THE GFS/ECMWF.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW REGIME SHOWS A RATHER CHAOTIC VORT REGIME
WITHIN THE OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL IN ALL THE DRY SE
FLOW WITH LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AND STARTS TO HEAD
INTO THE EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY. 00Z ECMWF A BIT QUICKER ON
APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR WEST...BUT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
WITH A LITTLE UPTICK IN 925 WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WITH A BIT OF A BOOST IN THE 925 TEMPS AS WELL.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
00Z ECMWF CONTINUES A QUICKER PACE TO APPCH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GENERATING SOME SHRA WITH FROPA. MEANWHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH FRONT HANGING BACK IN THE PLAINS AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WI WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
HAS IT INTO THE OH VLY. WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID FOR
NOW WHICH IS LEANING TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...UPSTREAM VFR STRATUS OVER IA MOVING TOWARD
SOUTHERN WI...AND EXPECTING SCT-BKN ST TO AFFECT KMSN FOR A TIME
TODAY. POSSIBLE THAT STRATUS BEGINS TO AFFECT ERN TAF SITES THIS
AFTN AND EVENING. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KENW BUT WEBCAMS
SHOW THIS FOG TO BE VERY PATCHY. FOG SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFT 12Z BUT MORE PATCHY FOG LIKELY TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHTER
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
STRATUS MAY HANG ON OR EXPAND ACROSS SRN WI TNGT AS WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

.MARINE...MODIS IMAGE FROM AROUND 17Z/21 SHOW NEARSHORE LAKE SFC
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER EAST
OF SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. WL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVER NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS WEAK SFC FRONT BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF SHEBOYGAN TONIGHT AND SURFACE MOISTURE
INCREASES.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 181506 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1006 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.UPDATE...

A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON LEADING
EDGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT. NOT ANTICIPATING THESE CLOUDS TO BE
ENOUGH TO DISRUPT HIGH TEMPS THOUGH...SO LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN
CONCERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...LIKELY RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 30-40 KT
FROM SFC TO 2 KFT. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO INCLUDE THIS IN NEXT TAF
PACKAGE.

WINDS ALOFT WILL THEN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY...SO A PRETTY
GUSTY DAY IS EXPECTED. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH...THOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP GIVEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN LOWER
LEVELS.

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TROF IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GTLAKES TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

MODIS IMAGERY FROM LATE SATURDAY MEASURED RATHER HOMOGENEOUS LAKE
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 50S...WHICH IS 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN
SEVERAL DAYS AGO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS TO MIX DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE MONDAY
MORNING AS TEMPS WARM DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CURRENTLY
HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVY IN EFFECT...BUT MAY NEED TO UPGRADE TO A GALE
WARNING AFTER EXAMINING NEW FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY. GALE WARNING
ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR OPEN WATERS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
AREA...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
WEST...AS THE UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT WHILE FLATTENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE.

700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TONIGHT...BUT IS STILL WEAK.
SEVERAL BANDS OF HIGHER 700 MB RH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
RH INCREASING TO AROUND 70 PCT IN THE BAND LATER TONIGHT. THE
LOWER LEVELS ARE DRY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY
CUMULUS POTENTIAL.

THE 850 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY...WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEY SHOW THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING MONDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS MIXING DOWN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS...WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITHIN THE PATTERN. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS ARE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA ABOVE 850 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING
IN THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE MOISTURE CONTENT THAN THE GFS. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA GET CLIPPED BY A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

NAM/ECMWF SHOW LIGHT QPF IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MORE WIDESPREAD. A
LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE IS SHOWING UP ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS...LITTLE
TO NONE ON THE GFS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE NORTH AND EAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND LEAVE
THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...LINGERING TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. SOME ELEVATED CAPE LINGERS ON
NAM SOUNDINGS...LESS SO ON GFS SOUNDINGS. FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE
FIELDS ARE MODEST ON NAM/GFS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
AREA.

500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM DOES SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. CONTINUED POPS FOR SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED IN LATER
FORECASTS IF THIS WET LOOK TO THE MODELS CONTINUES. MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY PER GFS/ECMWF
OUTPUT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE THAN THE ECMWF. CONTINUED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THE EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS MAY
NEED TO BE REMOVED IN LATER FORECASTS...AS MODELS ARE NOW DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

GFS IS QUICKER WITH NEXT SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THAN THE ECMWF. USED CONSENSUS BLENDED MODEL POPS AND TEMPERATURES
THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH A LARGE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.

THE 850 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE MUCH FASTER AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

THERE WILL BE A LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL BEGINNING JUST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AS WINDS AROUND 1500 FT INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY RISING LATE...THE WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL IS
MORE BORDERLINE.

MARINE...

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT...AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY
FOR LMZ646.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY
FOR LMZ644-645.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY
FOR LMZ643.

UPDATE...DDV/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 161824 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1224 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.UPDATE...

BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN UPSTREAM
SHOWERS. TEMPS HAVE LIKELY PEAKED AT THIS POINT...WITH CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MID-AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CIGS
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOWER CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST
PLACES LIKELY IFR BY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CIGS WILL THEN HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
DECREASE INTO THE EVENING...WITH A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY MORNING...PERSISTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

A 60 KNOTS LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT MIXING
THOUGH...LIKELY CAPPING THE HIGHER END GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AT THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY TO KEEP
MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OUT OF TAFS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF UPSTREAM AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROF
WILL PULL INCREASING DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COLUMN PWAT NEARLY DOUBLES
IN NEXT 24 HOURS TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTHWARD INTO IA/MN AHEAD OF STRONGER DAKOTAS WAVE. SEVERAL WEAKER
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF -SHRA TODAY.
THE FIRST HAS BEEN PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED -SHRA IN
THE SOUTHEAST CWA OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOULD END EARLY BUT EXPECT
UPSTREAM STRONGER WAVE OVER NRN MO/WRN IA AREA TO TRIGGER MORE -SHRA
OVER SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. SOUTH CENTRAL WI WILL BE
CLOSER TO DEEP MOISTURE FEED AND HAS BETTER CHANCE FOR -SHRA LATER
TODAY. LIKELY TO BE A BREAK IN THE -SHRA THREAT FROM LATE AFTN THRU
THE EVE BUT WITH PERSISTENT WEAK ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCE FOR -SHRA
IN THRU THE LATE NGT. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS INTO SRN WI LATE
TONIGHT RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD T.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES TUESDAY MORNING WILL
SWING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A SURGE OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE
OF A STRONG 50+ KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK... BUT THE STRONG LLJ FORCING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD AID
IN PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDER. THE INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BLUSTERY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH.
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

DRIER AND COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
IN SOUTHERN WI WED MORNING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW.
LOOK FOR RAIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY. BY WED AFTERNOON...
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO HIGHER MIXING AND THUS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL
BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI ON THU. THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW WED NIGHT AND
THU... BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR SNOW. IF IT SNOWS... A HALF INCH OR LESS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ON
GRASSY AREAS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DROPS OUT OF
PHASE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE ECMWF... BUT STAYS IN PHASE
WITH THE GFS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI NIGHT. THE
CANADIAN MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE LATTER TWO MODELS PRODUCE
A SWATH OF SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WI FRI NIGHT WHILE THE ECWMF KEEPS US
DRY. THE MODELS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO FLIP FLOP WITH THIS FORECAST A
COUPLE MORE TIMES BEFORE COMING INTO AGREEMENT DUE TO THE NATURE OF
THE WEAK UPPER LOW BEHAVIOR... SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

THE GFS AND ECWMF BECOME COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE IN THE LATTER
PERIODS AND THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST DO NOT HOLD
ANY WEIGHT. THE ECWMF FAVORS A WARM SOLUTION WITH RAIN SHOWERS
WITHIN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
STATES. THE GFS HOLDS ONTO COLD AND FAIRLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DUE TO
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN AND
MAY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR. THIS LOWER CIGS MAY NOT RECUPERATE DURING
THE LATE AFTN AND EVE AS -SHRA WANE BUT PERSISTENT SLY WINDS
MAINTAIN DEEPER MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE REGION. CIGS MAY DROP TO
IFR LEVELS LATE TNGT AS MORE WIDESPREAD -RA SPREADS TOWARD/INTO SRN
WI.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN TAKE A NORTHEAST TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SSE WINDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AND BUILDING WAVES.
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING
POSSIBLE GALE FORCE GUSTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED
FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A GALE WATCH THAT
WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS TURN TO THE
WEST AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND PORT WASHINGTON INFOS MEASURING LAKE SFC
TEMP IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FARTHER
SOUTH. SOME FOG MAY HAVE TIME TO DEVELOP BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
WARMER...MOIST AIR SURGES ACROSS LAKE MI AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
LMZ643>646.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 161527
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1027 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...ADVANCING PRECIPITATION RUNNING INTO
LINGERING DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THIS RAIN AREA INTO SRN WI THIS
AFTN. CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LOWER BUT EXPECT MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR CIGS TO EVOLVE TONIGHT. MESO MODELS DO SHOW SOME SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT THAT TO BE LARGELY PREDICATED
ON ANY UPSTREAM CLEARING WHICH LOOKS QUESTIONABLE ATTM BASED ON
VSBL IMAGERY. SURFACE TROUGH PROGGD TO SWING THROUGH ON FRIDAY
THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING UPSTAIRS SO PRECIP POTENTIAL
LOOKS PRETTY LOW WITH ANY LINGERING MORNING STRATUS/FOG GIVING WAY
TO VFR CONDITIONS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

DRY AIR WILL HOLD SWAY OVER ERN CWA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
CLOUDS WL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS
DRIER AIR GETS REPLACED BY RAPID SURGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION. PWAT VALUES CURRENTLY AROUND 0.75 INCH WL RAPIDLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES THIS AFTN AND EVE. COMBINATION OF
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN IA AND PIVOTING LOW LEVEL JET
TOWARD WI ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER SPREADING INTO S CENTRAL WI THIS MRNG.

MORE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFN AND EVE AS SHORT WAVE AND
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS CROSS SRN WI. HENCE CONTINUED LIKELY OR HIGHER
POPS INTO THE EVE USING OCNL PHRASING. SFC WMFNT DRAPED ACROSS
IA/MO/IL REGION WL MOVE NWD BUT MAY HAVE TOUGH TIME CROSSING INTO
WI DUE TO EXPECTED CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY.

HOWEVER CONSIDERING OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS...CAN NOT RULE OUT
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO HIGH PWAT VALUES AND DEPTH OF
WARM CLOUD LAYER...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
925-850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALIGNED WITH 850-300 MB FLOW NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS OVER 2 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS...SO HELD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES DUE TO LARGE
UNCERTAINTY.

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 5 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE LATER TODAY.
CAPE VALUES MAY INCREASE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG AS SHEAR PROFILE
QUITE FAVORABLE SO CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED ROTATING SUPERCELL
LATE AFTN/EVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS SYNOPTIC FORCING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. LIGHTER WINDS AND
POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
MORNING. NO REAL SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SPEAK OF IS SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY...NOR ANY REAL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ALOFT. SOME MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
DESPITE THIS.

GIVEN LACK OF FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...REMOVED POPS
FOR FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LEFT IN LOW POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS MAY END UP DRY AS
WELL...AS ADJUSTED AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS SHOWING SOME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH HIGH LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION.

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH STEADY
WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LEFT IN LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN MAY END UP DRY WITH
LACK OF DECENT SURFACE BOUNDARY OR FEATURE ALOFT TO BRING UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS ALSO FAIRLY
CAPPED. HIGHER DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
LAKE FOG DEVELOPMENT...LINGERING INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY.

SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN SPOTS. POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE MAY KEEP LAKESHORE
AREAS COOLER.

SPC HAS PUT MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
FOR DAY 3...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS TIED TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. ADJUSTED GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER CAPE WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT LIKELY WORDING FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BE THE BEST
TIME PERIOD FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS SHOWING BROAD 500 MB TROUGH SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...EXITING IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT POPS FOR
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

COULD THEN SEE A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS
BLENDED POPS FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER/REMOVE THEM IN LATER
FORECASTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE MODELS. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WOULD ALSO BE ON TAP DURING THIS TIME.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN SHOWN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO AND
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDED LOW POPS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MAY NEED HIGHER POPS IN LATER FORECASTS
IF THIS TREND HOLDS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

OCCASIONAL SHRA WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN WI THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THIS EVENING WITH A FEW TSTORMS. DEEPENING MOISTURE NORTH OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WL RESULT IN LOWER CIGS TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

MARINE...

MODIS IMAGERY FROM WEDNESDAY MEASURED LAKE MI SFC TEMP IN THE
LOWER 60S. HENCE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TODAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE AND NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WNDS
OFF COOLER LAKE WATERS WL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL INVERSION PREVENTING
GUSTIER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SFC.

WMFNT WL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MI THRU THIS EVE DUE TO
CONVECTION BUT WINDS MAY TURN OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WIND GUSTS WL REMAIN LESS THAN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD DUE TO WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT BUT MAY BE A WINDOW OF SEVERAL HOURS OF GUSTIER SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS EVE.

OTHERWISE...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT FOG/HAZE TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME
PREVALENT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY UNTIL
COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

BEACHES...

SOUTHEAST WINDS WL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY CAUSING WAVE
HEIGHTS TO INCREASE TO MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FEET. HENCE A MODERATE SWIM
RISK CAN BE ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING RESULTING IN
BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS. LATE DAY SWIMMERS SHOULD EXPECT TO
STAY AWAY FROM PIERS AND BREAKWALLS. THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT EASING THE SWIM RISK.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 161434 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
934 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.UPDATE...

OTHER THAN PASSING CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER. FORECAST HIGHS SEEM TO BE ON
TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TOMORROW AS THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD.

.MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY FROM LATE EVENING THURSDAY CONTINUED TO SHOW
LAKE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS. LATEST ATWATER BUOY TEMP MEASURED 57 DEGREES CONFIRMING
MODIS INSTRUMENT MEASUREMENT. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CREATED BY THE MILDER LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS
WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TO REACH THE LAKE SURFACE TODAY.
DESPITE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THE REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...SOME MESOMODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS TO REACH 22-25 KNOTS LASTING INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING.
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LASTS THROUGH 6 PM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING...WITH NEW AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER WAVE WITH THE
FRONT AND IT MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FROM SOME OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT ARE OCCURRING. COLD ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEING DEPICTED ON FCST SOUNDINGS. THE
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER ERN
WI FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. 925 MB TEMPS AROUND
-2C YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

FOR TNT...THE POLAR HIGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL REACH THE MS RIVER
BY 12Z SAT. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TNT BUT BECOME WEAKER
WITH A WEAKENING WIND FIELD. THUS RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE A
FACTOR IN AN ALREADY COOL AIRMASS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
FREEZING AT THE LAKE TO MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WI. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH FROST ALREADY
FORMING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THEY SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. COOL
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED.

LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S OVER THE AREA...LOWER 30S
NEAR THE LAKE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES TIGHTER. QUIET WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. PER 925 MB
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S SUNDAY...WITH LOWER
TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LOWS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THEY SHOW THE 500 MB FLOW BECOMING ZONAL DURING THIS
TIME...WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH SHOULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
GFS ALSO SHOWS WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH GUSTS REACHING
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE
WINDS...SO LEANED TOWARD CONSENSUS BLENDED MODEL VALUES OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW THOSE FOR NOW.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN STALLS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS THEN BRINGS LOW
PRESSURE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS TIMING WITH THE
LOW...AND BRINGS IT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

KEPT CONSENSUS BLENDED MODEL POPS FOR MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...GIVEN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

SCT-BKN CLOUDS FROM 5-8 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH
SUNRISE. AFTERWARD DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN AT LEAST SCT035-050 BUT WITH PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER
ERN WI FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES
FOR TNT.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM DUE TO BRISK AND
GUSTY NWLY WINDS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE TODAY AND TNT AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...DDV/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 160933
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

.LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

.MARINE...

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
LMZ643>646.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR LMZ643>646.

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 160841
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

.MARINE...

OTHERWISE...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT FOG/HAZE TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME
PREVALENT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY UNTIL
COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

.BEACHES...

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 151946
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
245 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKED SOUTHEAST THROUGH WI TODAY ALONG A
POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WIND GUSTS ARE PEAKING RIGHT NOW UP TO
35 MPH. DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH WE MIX... CANNOT RULE OUT EVEN HIGHER
WIND GUSTS AT TIMES. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY DARK... BUT EXPECT
OVERALL WINDS TO BE IN THE 7 TO 15 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THERE HAS EVEN BEEN SOME LIGHTNING/THUNDER IN THESE DUE TO
THE STEEP LAPSE RATES. THEY COULD CLIP THE NORTHERN MKX AREA
COUNTIES FROM GREEN LAKE TO SHEBOYGAN THROUGH SUNSET. A FEW LOW
CLOUDS COULD SPREAD INTO EAST CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT. THE STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION/CAA/ WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH 925MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 0C TO 2C. THIS YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT... COLDEST INLAND. KEPT FROST OUT OF
THE FORECAST BECAUSE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS DRY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS WILL BE
STEADY IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHEST
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FRI AM. PLAN ON PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S.

.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD ON TEMPERATURES...AS BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER WRN CONUS WILL HAVE USHERED COLD 925H TEMPS AROUND 0C
ACROSS SRN WI BY 00Z/SUN. THE THERMAL TROF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO SUN MRNG WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATION DUE TO AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER SRN WI. JET AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EWD LATER
SUNDAY ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.

DESPITE THERMAL TROF LINGERING OVER EASTERN CWA FRI NIGHT...LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS SPARSE. EXPECT A MODERATE INVERSION TO
SET UP...SO LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS OF 6 KTS OR LESS AND CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO
30 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA. ONLY AREAS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN AROUND FREEZING. HENCE WILL POST FREEZE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...LIKELY TO BE UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING
IN LATER FORECASTS.

THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY END THE GROWING SEASON OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. EXPECT SCT-BKN CIRRUS TO SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DUE TO UPSTREAM STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDECE...MEDIUM.

PROTECTIVE RIDGE AXIS WILL GET NUDGED EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL HAVE COMMENCED
ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ABATE ON MONDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE 850H TEMPS
WILL HAVE WARMED 12-14C. APPEARS AIRMASS OVER SRN WI TO REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE TO REMAIN PINCHED OFF
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CONUS.

SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WL
EVENTUALLY PULL DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUE. GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LONG TERM GUIDANCE BRINGING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ACROSS WESTERN GTLAKES IN THE WED TIME
PERIOD. HENCE WILL HAVE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS IN THE TUE NGT THRU WED
NGT TIME PERIODS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO FOR NOW WL NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST AROUND THIS TIME
WL KEEP UPPER MIDWEST WAVE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA
BY THURSDAY.

925H TEMPS WARM INTO THE 12 TO 17C RANGE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN MILD
THRU WED BEFORE COOLING. EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER BUT
DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD MANAGE TO RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EVEN BY THE LAKESHORE.

GFS 5 DAY 500MB MEANS SHOWING LARGE NEGATIVE ANOMOLY FORMING OVER
WRN CONUS BY 00Z/26TH WITH POSITIVE ANOMOLY OVER GREAT LAKES
DIMINISHING TO TENDING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. NCEP CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM PLUME SHOWS TEMPS TEMPORARILY COOLING OFF FOR THE
LAST DAYS OF OCT BUT RECOVERING A BIT IN EARLY NOV.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND 6-7 KFT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE UNTIL SUNSET. COLD ADVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. VFR STRATOCUMULUS WITH CIGS AROUND 5 KFT ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST OF MADISON AND KENOSHA.

BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS... BUT NW WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AROUND 1500
FEET AGL. THIS IS MARGINAL LLWS SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS
TIME.

.MARINE...

VERY GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE
SURFACE TEMP IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...CONFIRMED BY ATWATER BUOY
THIS MORNING. HENCE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER NEAR SHORE
WATERS WILL ALLOW HIGHER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS WELL...EVEN WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION...AS COLDER AIR
POURS ACROSS THE LAKE. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...FREEZE WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT FRIDAY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 151555 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1055 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015

.UPDATE...

LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND FRONTOGENESIS IS SLIDING SOUTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR
THE BROKEN/OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN JUST SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL
BE AROUND.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ORIENTED SW TO NE
ACROSS CENTRAL WI LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY WNW WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL PEAK DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI
AND USHERS COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON... BUT DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH WE MIX... WIND
GUSTS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER AT TIMES.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

BKN/OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE WI BORDER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. FEW-
SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5-6 KFT SHOULD THEN FORM FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG
AND BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS POSSIBLE LATE.

BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z/1 PM AND VEER
NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KTS ARE EXPECTED. THE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS... BUT NW WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
ALOFT AROUND 1500 FEET AGL.

.MARINE...

EXPECT SPRINKLES TO FURTHER DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WEST WINDS MIXING DOWN TO LAND SURFACE. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY
MEASURED LAKE SURFACE TEMP IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...CONFIRMED BY
ATWATER BUOY THIS MORNING. HENCE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL ALSO ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO
LAKE SURFACE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...EVEN WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION...AS
COLDER AIR POURS ACROSS THE LAKE.

WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTING AT 16Z...BUT GUSTIER WINDS
MAY BE DELAYED AN HOUR OR TWO DUE TO SPRINKLES AND LINGERING MID-
CLOUDS ACROSS SRN MARINE ZONES.

MBK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES CURRENTLY OVER SW WI AND ADJACENT
STATES WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS IS THE CATALYST FOR THE CLOUDS AND LGT PCPN. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT ONLY
FEW-SCT CUMULUS DUE TO DRY AIR ADVECTION. NWLY WINDS AND COLD
ADVECTION TO THEN PREVAIL THROUGH TNT. DID NOT MENTION FROST FOR TNT
AS WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY AND LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR IS EXPECTED
THOUGH...WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED MOST PLACES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP
AS THE HIGH HEADS EASTWARD. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THOUGH.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND THE
DEPARTING HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND...AS THE BLEND WAS SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. IF CURRENT MODEL TIMING
AND TEMPS ALOFT HOLD...COULD SEE TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S BY
TUESDAY. PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE THOUGH...SO DID NOT
GO QUITE THAT WARM.

HAVE KEPT SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...AS A WAVE OR TWO AHEAD
OF THE LOW AND THEN THE EVENTUAL LOW AND FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
PROBABLY BRING A COUPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A PERIOD OF BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS. SOME
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL OCCUR. FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND
5-6 KFT WILL THEN FORM FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TNT WITH FEW-
SCT STRATOCUMULUS POSSIBLE LATE. FOR WINDS...BREEZY AND GUSTY WLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND VEER NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE
TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 16Z TODAY UNTIL
23Z ON FRI. BREEZY AND GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
AND VEER NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25
TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED. BRISK AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THU NT AND FRI. HIGH WAVES WILL OCCUR OVER THE OPEN
WATERS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...MRC/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 150928
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A BEAUTIFUL DAY LIES AHEAD WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZES. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVENT LAKE
BREEZE FROM MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT PENETRATION INLAND. 925H TEMPS
IN THE 11-13C RANGE LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD MOST LOCATION...IN THE
40S TO LOW 50S. HENCE WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO CLIMB INTO THE
60S. MILDER START AND WARMER LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PROPEL TEMPS
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY 21Z SO BUMPED UP THE HIGH TEMP MOST
LOCATIONS. REMAINED MORE CONSERVATIVE RIGHT AT THE LAKESHORE
HOWEVER. SHOULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY.

AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM LONG WAVE TROF WILL NUDGE PROTECTIVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL
CARRY INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WEAK...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION ABV 4K FEET TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER CWA...WITH
BEST CHANCE IN THE WEST. COLUMN PWAT OVER WEST INCREASES AROUND
0.25 INCH BY 12Z.

.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES AND TIMING
DURING THIS PERIOD. A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...AS THE MAIN CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPS
IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850 MB REMAINS OVER
THE REGION...HELPING GRADUALLY TRANSPORT MORE COLUMN MOISTURE.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS GRADUAL SATURATION.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL APPEAR HIGHEST IN THE WEST MONDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS MORE MOISTURE
MOVES IN. THUS...KEPT TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THIS TIME. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY...WITH MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT...NEAR CONSENSUS BLEND OF
MODELS.

BEST SHOT FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB FLOW WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT/LOW LEVEL JET POINTS INTO THE AREA AND GETS ROBUST DURING
THIS TIME. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI/SOUTHWEST IOWA AREA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE MODEL VARIATION HERE WITH THE
EXACT TRACK. STILL...SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS WELL AND BEGIN TO
OCCLUDE...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS WITH SURFACE AND
500 MB LOW TRACKS...WHICH WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT VERSUS THE
SLOWER NAM.

ROBUST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS SEEN WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITHIN A DEEPLY SATURATED AIR COLUMN.
THUS...CONTINUED HIGH POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL...WITH SEVERAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. SOME LIGHT QPF SHOWS UP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE DRY SLOT ALSO PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH BRISK WESTERLY WINDS.
THERE SHOULD BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AIR
OVER THE REGION.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MORE DIFFERENCES SHOW UP DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A 500 MB TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE REGION...AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THIS WOULD GIVE THE AREA A SHOT AT ACCUMULATING SNOW.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A
SIMILAR SYSTEM TO THE GFS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA.

WILL USE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY FOR NOW...GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS THIS FAR
OUT. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND ITS TRACK COULD EASILY SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH. STAY
TUNED.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

RECENT TAMDAR DESCENT SOUNDING INTO KMKE VERIFYING STRONGER LOW
LEVEL WINDS SO BUMPED UP LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR VALUES IN TAFS FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE SURGE
OF MOISTURE...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KMSN OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR TNGT. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW LLWS THRESHOLD TNGT.

.MARINE...

RECENT MODIS SATELLITE IMAGING EQUIPMENT MEASURED COOL LAKE
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 40-45 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. ALTHOUGH ATWATER BUOY HAS BEEN PULLED FOR THE
WINTER...INFOS EQUIPMENT AT PORT WASHINGTON MEASURED A LAKE SFC
TEMP OF 45F AT THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT EARLY THIS MRNG. SUNSHINE
AND LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THIS MRNG...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY LAKE BREEZE FROM
MAKING INROADS INLAND.

HOWEVER TIGHT GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURE THIS AFTN APPROACHING 20F
AND WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP
RIGHT AT THE SHORE. HENCE WINDS MAY BE VARYING BETWEEN SW AND SSE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT SHORE LOCATIONS. WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLE GALE WARNINGS LOOK LIKELY
FROM AROUND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 060840
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
340 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

EXPECT INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING. HENCE WILL CONFINE PATCHY LIGHT FOG MENTION TO
EARLY MRNG AS PATCHY...THIN FOG WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN WARM...SOUTH BREEZES TODAY. LOW LEVEL MIXING AND 925H
TEMPS AROUND 23-24C AND MORE UNIFORM SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD WARM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 THIS AFTN. THE
WARM DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S MOST AREAS. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT LAKE BREEZE FROM PENETRATING VERY FAR INLAND THIS AFTN SO
LAKESHORE AREAS WILL WARM AS WELL. PLANNING ON KEEPING ANY POPS
TODAY CONFINED TO FAR WEST AS CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE
DAY.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
PULLING COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE TONIGHT. ALREADY DEEP
COLUMN MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY PWAT VALUES
FLIRTING WITH 2 INCHES LATER TONIGHT IN WRN CWA WHICH IS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. PWAT VALUES AT THIS LEVEL MEASURING 2
TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ACROSS SRN WI BY 12Z/7.
FORTUNATELY...SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT COMES ACROSS SRN WI LATER TONIGHT INTO MON MRNG. LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENING AND PIVOTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH MAIN MID-
LEVEL WAVE. SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF WAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP TO CARRY WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT SO WL CONTINUE HIGH POPS IN THIS AREA.
BETTER CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST WI MAINLY AFT 12Z/7. MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WX AT BEST IN WEST. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
5.5 TO 6 RANGE WITH WEAK BULK SHEAR AND DECREASING ELEVATED CAPE.
FAR WESTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO SWING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING. THIS IN
COMBO WITH LINGERING INFLUENCE OF 850 SW JET WILL LIKELY KEEP BEST
RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING WITH THE HELP OF LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE 850 JET IS
EXITING AND THE SHORTWAVE IS OFF TO THE EAST. SO LESS FORCING IN
PLAY THOUGH SURFACE/850 BOUNDARIES STILL IN THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
POPS GOING ALL DAY IN CASE ANYTHING CAN GET GOING. HOWEVER
CONCERNED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP AIRMASS FROM DESTABILIZING TOO
MUCH. SO AFTERNOON COVERAGE DOESN/T LOOK GREAT AT THIS
POINT...HOWEVER 00Z ECMWF SHOWS MIDDAY LULL WITH BULLSEYE ACROSS
SE WI DURG THE AFTN. MEANWHILE THE NAM SHOWS BULK OF AFTN DVLPMT
ACRS NRN IL WITH THE GFS MORE OF A COMPROMISE SOLUTION.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND IS PROGGD TO MOVE NE ALONG
SURFACE/850 BOUNDARY. 850 WIND MAX COMES INTO PLAY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED RIGHT REAR QUAD DIVERGENCE
SIGNATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOUTHWEST 250 MILLIBAR JET MAX ON
EASTERN SIDE OF ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS. POTENTIAL
THERE FOR SOME HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE...DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING A QUICKER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
LOW WITH SYSTEM EXITING TO THE EAST FOR TUESDAY EVENING WHILE THE
GFS IS SLOWER AND KEEPS PRECIP LONGER THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WITH THE FRONT AND LOW PUSHING OFF INTO THE EASTERN LAKES THE
PROGS SHOW A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD THIS PERIOD WITH
WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY NOTED. SO PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE
ELECTED TO GO DRY THIS PERIOD.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER FROM THE 12Z RUN AND IS NOW IN MORE
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ACTIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE GEM NOW THE ONLY MODEL TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS WI/IA FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS THERE IS STILL CONSENSUS FROM
THE GFS/ECMWF OF A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT WAVES RIDING THROUGH. THE
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THESE WAVES ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IN
PRIOR RUNS AS THEY ARE NOW SHOWING MORE OF A NORTHERN LOW POSITION
WITH LESS OVERALL QPF. MAIN STORY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING THE
COLD ADVECTION REGIME WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS CELSIUS WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME WEAK WAA IS THEN NOTED FOR SATURDAY
AS 850 WINDS START TO TURN A BIT MORE WESTERLY.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...NOT EXPECTING CONVECTION TO AFFECT KMSN UNTIL
THIS EVENING AT THE EARLIEST...AND LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MRNG ACROSS
THE EAST. MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS INTO KMSN WITH T THREAT TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING.

.MARINE...SHORELINE WEBCAMS REMAIN CLEAR OF DENSE FOG. SOME LIGHT
FOG SHOWING UP AT KENOSHA HARBOR. RECENT NEARSHORE LAKE SURFACE
WATER TEMP AS MEASURED BY RECENT MODIS IMAGES AND ATWATER BEACH
BUOY SHOWS TEMP HAS WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...
MORE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THIS IS STILL RELATIVELY COOL
COMPARED TO CURRENT SURFACE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA SO AREAS OF
FOG STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LOWER POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGEST GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE
SURFACE. HOWEVER STRONGER WINDS MAY AFFECT SGNW3 THIS AFTN AND EVE
WHERE ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IS ABOUT 60FT ABOVE SITE ELEVATION. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 22KTS IN THIS MARINE ZONE.

.BEACHES...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
AFFECTING LAKE MI BEACHES. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE WAVE
HEIGHTS TO INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET FROM PORT WASHINGTON NORTH TO
SHEBOYGAN RESULTING IN A MODERATE SWIM RISK AT BEACHES IN THESE
AREAS. BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED SO STAY AWAY FROM
DANGEROUS AREAS LIKE PIERS AND BREAKWALLS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 052134
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
334 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING THAT FAR TONIGHT... WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 32 TO 35 IN MOST AREAS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL REACH IOWA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR
OVER SOUTHERN WI FOR THE VORTICITY ADVECTION TO OVERCOME ON
WEDNESDAY... SO KEPT A DRY FORECAST WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE WEAKER OF
THE TWO PUSHING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE SECOND MORE
POTENT WAVE WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SURFACE
LOW. AS STRONG 850 FLOW PUMPS MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE SATURATED BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN SATURATED WELL INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC LIFT...EXPECT THE SEE PRECIP FROM EARLY
THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY.

AT THIS POINT THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS PRECIPITATION TYPE. WHEN THE
PRECIP MOVES IN THE PROFILE IN THE NORTH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW WHILE SLEET AND SNOW IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
BY MID DAY THURSDAY...ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA TO
SWITCH MOST OF THE CWA RAIN IN THE SOUTH. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC TEMPS WILL FLOAT VERY NEAR
FREEZING. HOWEVER...SUPERBLEND IS SHOWING TEMPS ELEVATING ABOVE
FREEZING BY 18Z...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO
WILL LEAVE THAT OUT. TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST...WHERE A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW IS MORE LIKELY. BY FRIDAY MORNING AFTERNOON...THE
LOW WILL BE ON TOP OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND COLD AIR WILL BEGIN
TO WRAP IN BEHIND THE LOW. THIS SLUG OF COLD AIR SHOULD SWITCH
MOST OF THE PRECIP TO SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

AS THE LOW MOVES OUT...A ROBUST COLD CORE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. SUPERBLEND BRINGS IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS...AND SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING
EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS. ANOTHER CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE WIND
CHILLS...WHICH MAY DROP AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TONIGHT SO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT.

.MARINE...

RECENT MODIS IMAGERY FROM MONDAY MEASURED LAKE SURFACE TEMP IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. HENCE THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE OPEN WATER. HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 15Z WED.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BSH

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 051628 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1028 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SHOULD PREVENT FOG TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD TO INCLUDE IN TAF
ISSUANCE. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

LOW CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT LAKESHORE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT EXPECT INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS TO CARRY
LAKE STRATUS AWAY FROM WESTERN LAKE MI SHORE THIS MRNG. ALSO NEED
TO KEEP EYE ON LARGE STRATUS FIELD OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO
WEST CENTRAL WI. THESE INCREASING WINDS MAY CARRY STRATUS TOWARD
NORTHWEST CWA THRU THE EARLY MRNG. OTRW NOT SEEING MUCH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. 925H TEMPS WARM TO
AROUND -5C. WITH HIGH ALBEDO...THINKING DAYTIME TEMPS WL WARM INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF PLAINS
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING THAT FAR
TONIGHT. COLUMN MOISTURE ACROSS SRN WI WL REMAIN DRY AND FAR ENOUGH
AWAY FROM UPSTREAM WEAK LIFT TO CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR TNGT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

INCREASING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TO KICK OFF PRECIP CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD
IS WHAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. CONSENSUS OF MODELS WOULD SUGGEST
MAINLY SNOW NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM
LAYER DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARY DEEP AND IS MAXING OUT AT
1-2C...SO JUST WENT WITH MENTION OF SLEET ALONG WITH THE SNOW IN
THE SOUTH. MILDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
THURSDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW NORTH AND
ALL RAIN SOUTH BY AFTERNOON.

MILDER WEDGE OF AIR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAINLY
RAIN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHWEST.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA BY
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. A SLOW TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS
THUS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...SO GENERALLY LOW END
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL
ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES...BUT IT
MAINLY LOOKS DRY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 10 TO 15 RANGE ARE SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN SOME OF THE
COLDER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS STRUGGLING UP
TO AROUND 5 BY MONDAY. WIND CHILLS MIGHT BE A FACTOR TOO...WITH
CURRENT FORECAST VALUES OF 10 TO 20 BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...KEEPING CLOSE EYE ON LAKE STRATUS THAT IS
TICKLING PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL LAKESHORE. SO FAR IT HAS NOT MAKE
MUCH PROGRESS INLAND. LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2.5-3K FT BUT WINDS AROUND
THIS LEVEL INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. RECENT DESCENT
AMDAR SOUNDING INTO KMKE SHOWING S WINDS JUST ABV THE SURFACE
AROUND 10KTS. HENCE THINKING THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BRING AN HOUR OR
TWO OF SCT-BKN CIGS AT KENW AND KMKE EARLY THIS MORNING...OTRW BULK
OF STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND START TO MOVE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. OTHER AREA OF STRATUS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO
NORTHWEST WI MOVING MOSTLY NWD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF
SITES. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLD TO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE.

MARINE...RECENT MODIS IMAGERY FROM MONDAY MEASURED LAKE SURFACE TEMP
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HENCE EXPECT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS WL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE OPEN WATER. HENCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 15Z WED. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
SMALL CRAFT FURTHER INTO WED IN LATER SHIFTS DUE TO LINGERING HIGHER
WAVES TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 050946
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
346 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...KEEPING CLOSE EYE ON LAKE STRATUS THAT IS
TICKLING PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL LAKESHORE. SO FAR IT HAS NOT MAKE
MUCH PROGRESS INLAND. LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2.5-3K FT BUT WINDS AROUND
THIS LEVEL INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. RECENT DESCENT
AMDAR SOUNDING INTO KMKE SHOWING S WINDS JUST ABV THE SURFACE
AROUND 10KTS. HENCE THINKING THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BRING AN HOUR OR
TWO OF SCT-BKN CIGS AT KENW AND KMKE EARLY THIS MORNING...OTRW BULK
OF STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND START TO MOVE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. OTHER AREA OF STRATUS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO
NORTHWEST WI MOVING MOSTLY NWD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF
SITES. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLD TO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE.

.MARINE...RECENT MODIS IMAGERY FROM MONDAY MEASURED LAKE SURFACE TEMP
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HENCE EXPECT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS WL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE OPEN WATER. HENCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 15Z WED. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
SMALL CRAFT FURTHER INTO WED IN LATER SHIFTS DUE TO LINGERING HIGHER
WAVES TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 030312
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
912 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016

.UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MARCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH. FEW FLURRIES NOTED ON KDLH RADAR MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WI
BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF CWA THRU THE NIGHT. SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS
MAY SLOW DOWN A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO
OVERSPREAD SRN WI THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES MAY GET
SHAKEN OUT OF THE CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AS WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS SRN WI. SFC WINDS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BELOW STEEP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...MAY BE ABLE TO
BUMP UP MIN TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK...CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER N WI...IS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS S WI ALONG AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. OVC MVFR AND IFR CIGS BEING REPORTED VIA ASOS METAR SITES
IN N WI. CIGS BETWEEN 2.0 TO 2.5KFT WERE REPORTED ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE...WITH LOWER CIGS FARTHER NORTH. EXPECTING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS STRATUS DECK TO ARRIVE AT ALL TAF SITES
BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER FROM THE WEST
TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH S
WI...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25KTS FOR THE MKE AND
ENW TAF SITES.

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT THE WIND SPEEDS TO EVEN INCREASE A LITTLE
AS A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. TUG MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS EVENING HAS REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 22 KNOTS ON ITS JOURNEY. FOR NOW LEFT
ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUN THROUGH 15Z...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED A FEW HOURS FURTHER IN LATER SHIFTS DUE TO SLOWLY
DECREASING WINDS ON SUNDAY. RECENT MODIS IMAGE ESTIMATES THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SURFACE TEMP TO BE IN THE 35 TO 40 RANGE IN THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS

MAY NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS TROF
PASSAGE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS WERE
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MODELS HAVE THIS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT...REACHING THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. THEY
SHOULD THEN LINGER SUNDAY...BELOW THE STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE LOWS SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT. WENT WITH
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S TONIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND
THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ON
SUNDAY...NEAR BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
LATER TONIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD THEN WEAKEN SUNDAY...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

THE GFS DIGS THE CANADIAN TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES RIDGE REACHING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BECOMING
DOWNWARD. 700 MB RH IS LOW. 850 MB RH IS HIGH INITIALLY...BUT
DRIES LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND BUILDS INTO WISCONSIN LATER
MONDAY. THIS CAUSES THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTH AND
BRINGS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CLOSE TO THE WESTERN SHORE ON THE 12Z
THEN WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS BRIEFLY BRINGS LOW CLOUDS AND WEAKENING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN MONDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT MILWAUKEE INDICATE AN
INVERSION AROUND 750 MB WITH MOISTURE INCREASING MONDAY MORNING AS
THE INVERSION LOWERS TO NEAR 850 MB. ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OR FLURRIES EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WEAKENS. THE 700 MB
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST LATER TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION BUT
THE MID LAYERS REMAIN DRY.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA LATER MONDAY BEGINNING A SOUTH LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THE GFS NAM AND ECMWF ARE DRY.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY.

A SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH JUST A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX ARE HAVE NO
PRECIPITATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

A WEAK MAINLY SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WEAKENING FURTHER OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A
SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW MOISTENS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SNOW TO
MIX TO RAIN SCENARIO.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA REGION FRIDAY AS IT TRACKS
TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING BY MONDAY. THE
PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE MORE MODERATE ON THE GFS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AT MILWAUKEE AND
KENOSHA...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE GUSTS SHOULD
SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
WEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION.

EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TAF SITES UNTIL 03Z
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 45 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL DURING THIS TIME. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
TIMES.

AN AREA OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CATEGORY CEILINGS SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LOW THE CEILINGS WILL GO. FOR NOW...WILL
USE AROUND 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR LOWER
CEILINGS...SOME BELOW 1000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...TO OCCUR.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL 15Z SUNDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN
GUSTY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP BELOW 22 KNOTS AFTER 15Z SUNDAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW THIS THRESHOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR GUSTS NEAR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL THEN VEER
NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN. HIGH WAVES MAY OCCUR
MONDAY...AS THE WINDS TURN ONSHORE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

UPDATE PUBLIC/MARINE...MBK
UPDATE AVIATION...JTS
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 010226
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
926 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...TEMPS DROPPED RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING SO LOWERED
MINIMUM SEVERAL DEGREES MOST AREAS. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY TO
DEVELOP...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG AT BAY. LIKELY TO BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST CLOSER TO RIDGELINE AND MOIST MARINE LAYER.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...FOG LIKELY TO AFFECT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
LAKESHORE FOR A TIME...HOWEVER LAKESHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...KEEPING MOST OF THE LAKE FOG AT/OFF
SHORE. DEWPTS ABOUT 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND HIGH
AFTERNOON CROSS OVER TEMPS AND CLEAR SKIES LIKELY TO ALLOW FOG TO
DROP VSBYS TO MVFR. WL CONTINUE IFR VSBYS AT KENW DUE TO HIGH
CROSS OVER TEMP AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO RIDGELINE. BETTER LOW
LEVEL MIXING LIKELY TO KEEP DENSE FOG AT BAY ELSEWHERE. RECENT
ASCENT KMKE TAMDAR SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG MIXING ABOUT 1K FEET OFF
SURFACE.

.MARINE...LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING DENSE FOG RAPIDLY
EXPANDED AND NOW COVERS MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...WHICH IS
CONFIRMED BY LAKESHORE WEBCAMS. MODIS IMAGERY ESTIMATED NEARSHORE
LAKE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S EARLY TODAY...BUT THEN WARMED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S DURING THE AFTN. RECENT UPWELLING
INCIDENT HAS CAUSED THE COOL WATER TO SURFACE AS OFF SHORE LAKE
SFC TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

WITH THE WARM...MOIST AIR STICKING AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK...BOUTS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE
WATER TEMP WARMS AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRATUS DECK MORPHED INTO CU FIELD. EXPECT THIS TO DIURNALLY DISSIPATE.
FOG POTENTIAL STILL THERE WITH OVERALL LIGHT WIND REGIME AND HIGH DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THERE IS A BIT MORE STIRRING OFF THE DECK SO NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO BE A CONCERN. MOS TEMPS APPEAR
REASONABLE.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
AFTER ANY MORNING FOG ERODES 925/850 THERMAL RIDGE LEANS INTO THE CWA
WITH 925 TEMPS REACHING THE MID 20S CELSIUS. SO EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING 90. EVOLVING ONSHORE
COMPONENT WILL DROP TEMPS BACK A BIT LAKESIDE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU NT..

A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER WRN CANADA AND THE
PACIFIC NW WITH RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN USA
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EXIST
WITHIN THE RIDGING AREA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL OR SRN WI FOR LATE WED INTO THU. MLCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 1500-2000 J/KG FOR WED AFT WITH LITTLE
CAPPING...BUT ALSO LITTLE TO NO SFC CONVERGENCE. SOME MODELS DO
HAVE QPF AT TIMES ALTHOUGH MODEL AND MOS POP GUIDANCE IS VERY LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FOR WED NT
AND THU.

HIGH TEMPS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN
FORECAST DUE TO STRATUS AND FOG AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THIS
OUT FOR THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL BELIEVE TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE
LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VERY WARM...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
WEEKEND. THUS SMALL CHANCES OF TSTORMS ARE FORECAST AT TIMES BUT
WILL INCREASE ON LABOR DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN AT
THIS TIME.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MVFR CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND GUID STILL SUGGESTING
FOG DEVELOPS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
METMOS ON VSBY TRENDS. 850/925 THERMAL RIDGE STARTS TO LEAN INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SW FLOW. NAM SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH
CU POTENTIAL.

MARINE...WEAK FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH DEW
POINT AIRMASS OVER COOL WATERS OF THE LAKE. SOME UPTICK IN SOUTH
THEN SOUTHEAST WINDS ON TUESDAY BUT TRAJ FAVORS KEEPING FOG...SOME
DENSE...IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH POTENTIAL
LINGERING LONGER IN NORTHERN ZONES INTO TUE NGT. WITH GRADIENT
LOOKING OVERALL WEAK FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEAK MAY BE SEEING MORE
OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HEADLINES AS THE WEEK MOVES ALONG.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643.

UPDATE...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KMFR 120934
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
234 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR
40N 130W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BEFORE BEGINNING A JOG TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST.
DRY AIR EAST OF THE LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF ANY SMOKE...AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
THE LARGEST CURRENT IMPACT FROM THE SMOKE CENTERS NEAR THE
NATIONAL CREEK COMPLEX NEAR CRATER LAKE...WHERE HIGHWAY 230 IS
CLOSED NOW BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 12 AND 24...PER ODOT'S
TRIPCHECK.COM WEBSITE. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF RECENT
BURNING AT THAT FIRE...AND WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING EXPECT
SMOKE TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT HIGHWAY 230 THROUGH THE MORNING. BY
THIS AFTERNOON...WEST WINDS SHOULD PUSH SOME OF THE SMOKE AWAY
FROM THE HIGHWAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY PATCHY SMOKE
TODAY...MOSTLY ALOFT...IN SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND NORTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA.

TONIGHT...THE MARINE LAYER AT THE COAST WILL DEEPEN AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED MAINLY AT THE COAST AND JUST INLAND. ON THURSDAY
THE UPPER LOW NUDGES CLOSER TO LAND AND USHERS IN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
BRING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. IT IS NOTABLE HOW DRY THE AIR MASS REMAINS
ON THURSDAY IN THE UPPER LEVELS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES...AND EVEN DRIER EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS DRY AIR...AND
WEAK INSTABILITY...SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THIS VERY DRY
AIR WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT FALLS ANYWHERE...SO WE
ARE EXPECTING ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON THURSDAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. PLUS...STEERING FLOW IS FAST FROM THE SOUTH SO ANY SHOWERS
WON'T STAY IN ONE SPOT FOR VERY LONG. WE ARE TAKING A LITTLE
LIBERTY WITH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY DESPITE THE
WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW MIDLEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...GIVEN THE
STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THE ANOMALOUSLY
LOW 500MB TEMPERATURES.

ANOMALY TABLES SUGGEST THE SOUTH TO NORTH WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW OVER THE EAST SIDE AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEY REPRESENT A TOP 5 TO
10 PERCENT EVENT FOR MID AUGUST. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS COULD CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT RFWMFR HIGHLIGHTS THIS. ADDITIONALLY...WE
EXPECT SOME BLOWING DUST IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM SOME OF THE DRIER
AREAS OF NORTHEAST SISKIYOU...MODOC...AND LAKE COUNTIES.

DRY AND STABLE AIR RUNS THE SHOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY THEN WARMING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/06Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG
THE COAST WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN...PERHAPS AS FAR AS
KRBG...BEFORE CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST BY 20Z. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS DURING THE EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, INLAND AREAS WILL BE VFR THROUGH TODAY...EXCEPT THAT
WILDFIRE SMOKE COULD CAUSE LIMITED VISIBILITY IN SOME AREAS. /CC

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 12 AUGUST 2015...A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT COULD BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING WITH
IT STRONG NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. ALTHOUGH STILL TOO FAR OUT IN RANGE TO
BE CERTAIN, GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /CC

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ285.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ281.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

NSK/NSK/CC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KJAN 171948
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
248 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM
INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER AND TEMPS. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT
PLAYER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, WITH A COOL/DRY SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING IN ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS OFF THE COAST, BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY, BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP RATHER DRY CONDITIONS AROUND DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
RH'S DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
FORTUNATELY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS MEANING LESS GUSTY WIND. STILL, SUCH LOW HUMIDITY COUPLED WITH
ANY GUSTS DURING DAYTIME MIXING WILL STILL BE DANGEROUS GIVEN THE
VERY DRY VEGETATION ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AN
ELEVATED FIRE WX THREAT IN GRAPHICS/HWO THROUGH MONDAY.

WITH THE DRY AIRMASS WILL COME LARGER DIURNAL TEMP RANGES. WE SAW
THIS LAST NIGHT, WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE TONIGHT, WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA GETTING IN ON THE ACT AS WINDS
SHOULD BE A BIT LIGHTER. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND ON THE HIGHER END FOR HIGHS. /DL/

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK)...DEEP LAYER
RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE ARKLAMISS DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW ONE
INCH. BY TUESDAY A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY IS ANTICIPATED TO
INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ENOUGH TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM
FALLING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER COULD
REDEVELOP AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK IF WINDS EMANATE FROM A MORE
INLAND TRAJECTORY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE DROUGHT TO ONLY WORSEN WITH
NO CHANCE FOR RAIN ANY TIME SOON. THE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDE DAILY TEMPERATURE RANGES
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS.
/EC/

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS EVENING...BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. /19/

.FIRE WEATHER...DANGEROUS FIRE WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO EXIST TODAY
WITH RH'S RANGING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS GUSTY AS YESTERDAY,
THERE HAVE STILL BEEN GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. MODIS FIRE DETECTION WAS
ALREADY PINGING A FEW FIRES ACROSS THE AREA AND LATEST RADAR ALSO
APPEARED TO DETECT FIRES IN COVINGTON AND JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THOUGH WINDS SHOULD
SLACK OFF JUST A BIT MORE. BASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE AREA
FORESTRY AGENCIES, NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE EXISTING FIRE
WEATHER WATCH.

THANKS MEG/MOB/LIX FOR COORDINATION. /DL/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 42 73 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 39 71 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 41 75 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 43 74 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 46 75 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 41 73 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 38 71 41 75 / 0 0 0 0

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
072>074.

LA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.

AR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

DL/19/EC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KHUN 240652
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
152 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 06Z, A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM JUST EAST OF LEXINGTON TO
JUST S OF NASHVILLE AND MEMPHIS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WAS FOUND FROM
SRN MIDDLE TN THRU NWRN AL INTO CENTRAL MS. DEW POINTS WERE QUITE
SOUPY THIS MORNING, SITTING IN THE L-M70S. AREAS OF CLOUDS WERE ON
THE INCREASE ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND THE COLD FRONT IN KY
AND TN. LOCAL RADARS INDICATE A SMALL TSTM HAS POPPED UP IN LAWRENCE
COUNTY DURING THE PAST HOUR AND WE COULD SEE MORE OF THESE THRU THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS LINES UP WITH NAM AND HRRR RUNS THAT SHOWS
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAT MAY PLAGUE A FEW AREAS THRU EARLY MONDAY
MORNING (~15Z) BEFORE THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION, PATCHY
THICK FOG HAS DEVELOPED, MAINLY IN SOME OF OUR RIVER VALLEYS IN SRN
TN AND NERN AL. THE 03Z MODIS IMAGE PICKED UP ON THIS WITHIN THE
PAINT ROCK VALLEY. FORT PAYNE (4A9) IS DOWN TO 1/2SM. WE HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FOG THRU 15Z TO GO ALONG WITH THE SCHC OF TSRA ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. FOR THE REST OF TODAY, WE WILL SEE DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE
U50S-L60S WITH A NWLY BREEZE DEVELOPING. LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD DROP INTO THE L-M50S IN SRN TN, AND U50S- L60S IN NRN AL.

FINE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THIS WEEK AS
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDS INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD ACTUALLY PENETRATE THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WEDNESDAY
MORNING COULD APPROACH 50 IN A FEW OF OUR SRN TN VALLEYS. AS THE SRN
EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROF BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE SERN U.S., A
SIMILAR PATTERN THAT OCCURRED A COUPLE WEEKS BACK, WE MAY SEE ANOTHER
INVERTED SFC TROF DEVELOP OVER GA/FL WHICH TRACKS WEST THRU AL AND TN
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW
TO RETURN WESTWARD, SO WE HAVE HELD OFF POPS ATTM. TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO SEASONAL OR JUST ABOVE BY THE WEEKEND IF NOT
SOONER.

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1155 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CDFNT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS NW AL. LOCAL RADARS
SHOW THAT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA HAVE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER SCT/BKN CLOUDS
ARND 6000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR THE PATCHY
MVFR FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 87 59 83 58 / 10 0 0 0
SHOALS 87 60 83 57 / 10 0 0 0
VINEMONT 85 56 81 57 / 20 0 0 0
FAYETTEVILLE 82 57 80 52 / 10 0 0 0
ALBERTVILLE 84 59 81 55 / 20 0 0 0
FORT PAYNE 85 56 81 53 / 20 0 0 0

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK67 PAJK 091354
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
554 AM AKDT SUN AUG 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AK GULF SHIFTS EASTWARD
AND FLATTENS AS TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE AK INTERIOR MOVES OVER.
SURFACE LOW UNDER THE TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR KODIAK THIS MORNING
THEN TRACKING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AK GULF. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY TRACKING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AK GULF. THIS WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON THEN EXTEND EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT
WITH SPREADING RAIN BANDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS.
6 HOUR QPF VALUES IN THE QUARTER INCH RANGE. UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW STILL ROTATING
CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THE CLEAR SKIES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY ARE NUMBERED WITH THE
ADVANCING FRONT. NIGHTTIME MODIS SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD/FOG BAND
OVER CROSS SOUND STILL IN PLACE. SO FAR THE OTHER TYPICAL FOG
LOCATIONS NOT SHOWING SAME FOG DEVELOPMENT AND VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AS SATURDAY. SOME PATCHY FOR NEAR PAYA AND PAKW BUT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WAS BIT MORE DRYING YESTERDAY SO EVEN WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT NOT AS MUCH RADIATIONAL FOG.

WINDS WERE PREVIOUS DRIVEN BY THERMAL GRADIENT AND THROUGH THE
DAY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MAIN DRIVER. BEFORE THE
DEVELOPING AND LOWERING CLOUD DECK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DAY TIME
HEADING, BRINGING TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO HAVE SOME WEAK SEA
BREEZE WINDS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE PANHANDLE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES WILL INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER N LYNN CANAL WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH OTHER INNER CHANNEL SOUTHERN WINDS PICKING UP TO
THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. COASTAL WATER WINDS WILL PICK UP TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WERE MINOR AND STILL IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST. LEANED MORE TOWARD ECMWF/NAM AS GFS WAS NOT HANDLING THE
PANHANDLE SURFACE RIDGE WELL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT. A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE N
GULF COAST MON AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER WRN INTERIOR AK. LIKELY
RAIN ACROSS THE N GULF COAST AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TUE AS THIS FIRST WAVE MOVES INLAND. THE BREAK
WILL BE BRIEF THOUGH...AS ANOTHER...STRONGER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
GULF WED. THE THREAT OF ISOLD TSTMS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY NEAR
THE LOW CENTER WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION
YET...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL. THIS STORM WILL
ALSO HAVE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PWATS 1-1.3" BEING PULLED
N. THIS STRENGTHENING LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SCA WINDS
OVER THE GULF WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF
CYCLOGENESIS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS STORM WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INLAND LEAVING A WEAKENING LOW DRIFTING TOWARDS THE COAST THU.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH THE EC TAKING
THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY THU...WHILE
GFS/GEM MOVE IT MORE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE LATER THU. WENT
WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...MOVING THE LOW INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MID THU. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THU INTO
FRI AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE INTO THE WEEKEND BUT IN GENERAL MAINTAIN ZONAL
FLOW TO BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF BEFORE ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
INHERITED FORECAST REPRESENTED THIS WELL AND MOST CHANGES WERE FOR
THE WEEKEND WHERE A GFS/EC BLEND WAS USED TO UPDATE. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
DROPPING TO AVERAGE NEXT WEEKEND.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-042-043-051-052.

PRB/BC

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 251153
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
253 AM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM SOLUTION
WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THEY CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MID RANGE AND BEYOND. MODEL
OUTPUT NUMBERS ARE MUCH MORE REASONABLE WITH THIS LATEST RUN SO IT
LOOKS LIKE THEY HAVE FINALLY CAUGHT UP. WILL USE A BLEND AGAIN
TODAY LEANING TOWARD CONTINUITY.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
TO SITKA TO TANANA TO KOTZEBUE AND OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIE FROM DEASE LAKE BC TO CHICKEN TO BETTLES TO
POINT HOPE LATE THIS EVENING...THEN FROM MAYO YT TO COLDFOOT TO
POINT LAY BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE BY LATE SATURDAY...AND OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. 500 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MERGE
WITH A LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC TO BE OVER COLD BAY
THIS MORNING AT 498 DAM...ROTATING TO NORTH OF UNIMAK ISLAND THIS
EVENING THEN BACK SOUTHEAST OVER PAVLOF BAY BY SATURDAY MORNING
AT 500 DAM...MOVING NORTHEAST OVER BRISTOL BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING
AS IT WEAKENS TO 510 DAM. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE NORTH AROUND THE
LOW AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY. AT 850
HPA...00Z UPPER AIR OUT OF FAIRBANKS HAD THE TEMPERATURE AT 17.2
CELSIUS BELOW SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARMING ALOFT HAS BEGUN. UPPER
AIR FROM MCGRATH SHOWED AN INCREASE OF AROUND 7 CELSIUS FROM 12Z
LAST NIGHT TO 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THE WARMING
SHOULD CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES OVER
FAIRBANKS NEAR 2 CELSIUS BELOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY
COOLING STARTS.

SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 951 MB LOW NEAR COLD BAY
THIS MORNING WITH RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR OLD CROW AND RIDGING EXTENDING TO
THE NORTHWEST TO A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR CAPE HALKETT AND RIDGING
EXTENDING TO WRANGEL ISLAND. THE RIDGING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW INFLUENCES THE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE. THE
LOW WILL MOVE TO 150 NM NORTH OF UNIMAK ISLAND AT 957 MB THIS
EVENING...THEN ROTATE SOUTH TO 100 NM NORTH OF COLD BAY BY
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EAST TO SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY BY SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO A LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING EAST
OVER THE ALEUTIANS. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER YUKON
FLATS AND THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE LATE SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY. LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE
AND BROOKS RANGE AS WELL AS OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN TODAY. TANANA
VALLEY JET KICKS IN TODAY ALONG WITH SOME GAP WINDS NEAR PASSES.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...PRETTY NICE FOR THE ARCTIC IN
DECEMBER. MOSTLY CLEAR FROM WHAT I CAN SEE FROM DEADHORSE WEST ON
THE GOES AT 25/1130Z AND THE SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT
25/0815Z. GOES MVFR DOES INDICATE SOME CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT
25/0815Z...BUT IT IS PRETTY NOISY SO NOT REAL RELIABLE. GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP A BIT OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST TONIGHT SO WILL ISSUE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR Z201. WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH AS THEY SWITCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MIX OF WEATHER CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. CONDITIONS HAVE
SETTLED A BIT OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND THE WORST CONDITIONS
HAVE PASSED SO WILL CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND ISSUE AN
ADVISORY FOR THE AREA THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GAMBELL
OBSERVATION STOPPED COMING IN YESTERDAY...BUT SAVOONGA
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUES TO INDICATE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SO
WILL KEEP THAT WARNING GOING. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE LOWER YUKON DELTA SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
30S TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COOLING A BIT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG NEAR THE COAST...AND SOME STRONGER
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER SUMMITS INLAND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING A BIT SATURDAY
NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE SOME
CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT
SOME GAP WINDS AND THE TANANA JET DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER SUMMITS THROUGH NOON SATURDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ209.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ214.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

SDB DEC 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 241148
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
248 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THE PAST FEW RUNS. THERE ARE SOME
ISSUES AS THEY MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN
SOLUTIONS. MODEL OUTPUT NUMBERS APPEAR TO HAVE CAUGHT UP WITH
REALITY SO THAT SHOULD MAKE THE FORECAST A BIT EASIER TODAY. WILL
LEAN ON CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
GFS RUN.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...499 DAM LOW OVER BARTER ISLAND THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LIES
FROM THE LOW TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO TANANA AND WILL MOVE EAST TO LIE
FROM OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY TO CHALKYITSIK TO HEALY LATE THIS
MORNING...AND MOVE OUT OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. RIDGING
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC TO KING SALMON TO EMMONAK AND
OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA THIS MORNING...MOVING EAST TO LIE
OVER WHITTIER TO ANVIK TO SHISHMAREF TO WRANGEL ISLAND THIS
EVENING...AND SITKA TO TANANA TO KOTZEBUE AND OVER THE CHUKCHI
SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND DEASE LAKE BC TO EAGLE TO CAPE
LISBURNE LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS IS AROUND 100 NM NORTH OF AMCHITKA THIS MORNING AT 500
DAM...MOVING TO 200 NM NORTH OF ADAK LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN
OVER UNIMAK ISLAND AT 494 DAM BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...00Z
UPPER AIR OUT OF FAIRBANKS HAD THE TEMPERATURE AT 16.7 CELSIUS
BELOW SO THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM IS TO THE NORTH BUT WILL MOVE
SOUTH AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH AND COLD AIR SINKS SOUTH. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 20 BELOW CELSIUS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER FAIRBANKS LATER THIS MORNING. THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM WILL
MOVE NORTH LATER TODAY TO LIE FROM DAWSON YT TO POINT HOPE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST EXITING THE STATE LATE
FRIDAY.

SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT THAT HAS BEEN
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. A 1027 MB HIGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS AND WILL MOVE EAST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF FAIRBANKS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
CANADA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR OLD CROW YT LATE
THIS EVENING WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST.
THE PATTERN WILL BE PRETTY DYNAMIC OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE
LOW IN THE BERING SEA MOVES EAST WITH AND OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING
NORTH TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATER
THIS MORNING. STRONG GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING WINDS TODAY AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...AS LOW OFFSHORE MOVES NORTH SOME
CLEARING IS ALREADY OCCURRING WEST OF NUIQSUT. THE 24/0718Z SPORT
MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB IS NOT SHOWING MUCH STRATUS AND
WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA...IT SHOULD STAY CLEARED OUT
FOR A WHILE...AND THE EASTERN AREAS WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW PATCHES OF ROUGE STRATUS THAT MOVE OVER
AREAS...BUT NOT SEEING IT RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE
TODAY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WARM NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE LOW IN
THE BERING SEA INFLUENCES THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE AND PUSHES
THE COLDEST AIR NORTHEAST. WINDS IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC DIMINISHING
LATER TODAY...BUT WINDS ON THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL PICK UP
FRIDAY AS THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...COLDER AIR TODAY WILL BE PUSHED
OUT LATER IN THE EVENING AND THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGER WINDS WORKING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
BY NOON TODAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLEARING WILL OCCUR PRETTY RAPIDLY
THIS MORNING IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA AS AREAS TO THE WEST ARE
ALREADY CLEAR OR CLEARING. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN ABOUT 15
DEGREES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE TODAY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WARMING OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WITH GAP WINDS AND TANANA JET
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AS THE WARM AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ214.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220.

SDB DEC 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 231317
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
417 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW MOVING TO THE
WEST COAST NEXT 24 HOURS...A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW
THAT WILL MOVE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK. COASTAL
SURGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. THERE IS
SOME CONFUSION IN THE MODELS AS TO WHAT EXACTLY WILL HAPPEN OVER
THE INTERIOR. WILL LEAN ON CONTINUITY AND ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES
TO THE EXISTING GRIDDED DATABASE FOR THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 499 DAM LOW 200 NM WEST OF ST MATTHEW
ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A RELATIVELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING...AND BY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA...THEN EAST ACROSS KOTZEBUE SOUND...THEN SOUTH
THROUGH THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AS IT PUSHES NORTHEAST OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ALCAN BORDER. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE COAST BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND LIE SOUTHEAST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...PUSHING OVER THE RIDGE AND THE ARCTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
WILL PUSH 530 DAM HEIGHTS AS FAR NORTH AS MACKENZIE BAY AND 540
HEIGHTS TO THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY.

SURFACE...BENIGN PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY WILL BE
PUSHED EAST AS 970 MB LOW IN THE BERING SEA MOVES TO ST MATTHEW
ISLAND BY LATE THIS EVENING. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE
LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN INTERIOR
THROUGH THE DAY. GAP FLOW/CHINOOK WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN
ALASKA RANGE THIS MORNING AND IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE...AND THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS LEE SIDE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS. LEESIDE
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT WITH GAP/CHINOOK
WINDS DEVELOPING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA AND
UPPER YUKON VALLEY DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL IS PUSHING SURGE VALUES UP A
BIT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE MAXING OUT AT AROUND 7 FEET IN
NORTON BAY AND 6 FEET IN NORTON SOUND SO WILL CANCEL THE COASTAL
FLOOD WATCHES AND ISSUE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS...AND
THE SCAMMON BAY AREA. THERE IS SOME SHOREFAST ICE IN THESE AREAS
AND THAT COULD LEAD TO PROBLEMS AS IT GETS SHOVED UP ON SHORE.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...GINA MODIS FOG PRODUCT...11-3.7UM
AT 23/0624Z NOT SHOWING A LOT ON THE ARCTIC COAST. THERE IS A
BAND OF STRATUS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ARCTIC OVER WAINWRIGHT AND
SOUTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE THAT IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST...AND SOME
STRATUS IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THAT IS JUST HANGING AROUND.
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH. IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
STRONG GAP FLOW WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT IN PASSES WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW MOVING INTO THE BROOKS RANGE
TONIGHT...BUT MINIMAL AMOUNTS FOR MOST AREAS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
TURN TO EASTERLY AS LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE COAST COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A LOT GOING ON HERE...WILL
CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE WILL BE CANCELING IN THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES AND ISSUING
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN THIS MORNING AND
TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NORTH. CAPE ROMANZOF
IS ALREADY GETTING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS AND THEY WILL
SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE CAPES
AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WHERE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL OCCUR.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR ZONES 209 AND 213 TODAY AND TONIGHT. HEAVY
SNOW FOR MOST OF THE OTHER ZONES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM
4 TO 18 INCHES. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE AS THE LOW BRING WARM AIR
NORTH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...JUST A GLANCING BLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR AS MOST OF THE SYSTEM IS PUSHED NORTHWEST OF THE
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY. PERIODS OF SNOW AND EVEN A PERIOD OF HEAVY
SNOW TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF FAIRBANKS AS THE SYSTEM RIDES UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS
FROM FAIRBANKS WEST AND NORTH FOR 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. STRONG
WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND AROUND DELTA JUNCTION AS
GAP/CHINOOK FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 70 MPH
NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH NEAR
DELTA JUNCTION. TEMPERATURES WARMER HERE ALSO AS THE CHINOOK WINDS
WARM THE AREA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ209-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ227.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ222-
AKZ227.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SDB NOV 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 231108
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
308 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD AT 500 HPA. MODELS
ARE MAINTAINING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 84 HOURS BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES SHOW UP. AT THE SURFACE THEY HAVE COME
MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER AND ARE CONSISTENT THROUGH AROUND 84
HOURS ALSO. MOVING INTO THE MIDTERM THEY ARE SHOWING BETTER
AGREEMENT...BUT STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS.
WILL LEAN ON A BLEND AGAIN TODAY FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A NUDGE
TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER
THE ALCAN BORDER AREA WITH THE AXIS FROM KUPARUK TO CORDOVA THIS
MORNING. A 534 DAM CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA
VALLEY TODAY AND SLIDE EAST AND NORTH WITH THE LOW MOVING OVER
BARTER ISLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING AT 530 DAM WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE ALCAN BORDER. THE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY THE RIDGE
THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE AXIS LIES FROM OVER ADAK TO POINT LAY
AND INTO THE ARCTIC THIS MORNING...ROTATING TO LIE FROM ATKA TO
SLEETMUTE TO DEADHORSE BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND SLIDES EAST TO
LIE FROM CORDOVA TO EAGLE AND NORTH OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER WESTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO
150 NM SOUTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND AT 518 DAM THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAIN AT 516 DAM FRIDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE BERING STRAIT LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIE FROM THE LOW TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS
TO THE WEST SIDE OF COOK INLET BY FRIDAY MORNING CONTINUING EAST
INTO THE YUKON FRIDAY NIGHT. AT 850 HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM LIES FROM
POINT HOPE TO CAPE NEWENHAM THIS MORNING AND WILL LIE FROM POINT
LAY TO TO WESTERN KODIAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BREAK DOWN THE COLD AIR AND PUSH THE ZERO ISOTHERM
SOUTH TO LIE FROM CAPE ROMANZOF TO MCGRATH TO CORDOVA BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

SURFACE...1000 MB LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTH AS
A RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. THE RIDGE LIES FROM
COLD BAY TO MCGRATH TO BARTER ISLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEAST TO LIE FROM COLD BAY TO DENALI PARK TO BANKS ISLAND BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SLIDING INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM A LOW NEARING WRANGEL ISLAND THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THE
LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND LATER THIS EVENING WITH
THE FRONT WORKING INLAND TO LIE FROM POINT LAY TO UNALAKLEET AND
CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM BARROW TO MCGRATH BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE ARCTIC A SECONDARY LOW
WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR.

ARCTIC COAST...SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
EAST OF BARROW THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE ARCTIC TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN AREAS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST COAST
SOUTH OF POINT LAY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ON THE
NORTHWEST COAST WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55
MPH...ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH. RAIN MOVING OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ARCTIC AND BROOKS RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
CONTINUING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC AND BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO
EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN CHANGING TO RAIN IN MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRECIPITATION MOVING OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING MAY START OUT AS SNOW IN AREAS NORTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA...BUT CHANGE TO RAIN BY NOON IN MOST AREAS.
PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY WORK INLAND WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE
MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS OVER THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL SWING AROUND TO WEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND ON THE
NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST WITH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 45 MPH. THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE WINDS
IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. INLAND AREA WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME LINGERING FLURRIES UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF FAIRBANKS. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY
NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES RISING 3 TO 8 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE FOR THE WEEKEND.

.HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME...BUT THE NOATAK RIVER BASIN COULD
SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SO WILL KEEP A
CLOSE WATCH OVER THAT AREA.

.SATELLITE...STRATUS IN THE ARCTIC AND IN THE INTERIOR STANDS OUT
PRETTY GOOD ON THE SPORT MODIS 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 23/0833Z
PRODUCT. NOT SEEING MUCH MOVEMENT IN EITHER AREA. STRATUS ON THE
WEST COAST IS MASKED BY THE HIGHER CLOUDS IN THE AREA. GOES MVFR
PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 23/0845Z AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VAST
AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE WITH A WIDE BAND OF STRATUS
INDICATED WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND
BERING STRAIT.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.

SDB SEP 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 222050
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1250 PM AKDT WED JUL 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT ON POSITIONS OF
THE MAJOR FEATURES OUT TO 120 HOURS OR SO. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD
THE NAM FOR PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AGAIN TODAY.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...BIG COL OVER THE STATE YESTERDAY HAS DRIFTED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WITH A 564 DAM HIGH NORTH OF PRUDHOE
BAY AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA FROM A HIGH IN THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC...AND A 542 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WITH A 547 DAM LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY. THE PATTERN
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY MOVES TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THE HIGH OVER THE
ARCTIC MOVES OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN
BEAUFORT SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 552 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE GULF OF ANADYR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A LOW IN THE NORTHWEST
BERING SEA.

SURFACE...PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE. 1003 MB LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A 995 MB LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA. THE LOW IN THE ALASKA RANGE CONTINUES EAST TO THE SOUTHERN
YUKON TERRITORY AND MERGES WITH A 997 MB LOW AS THE LOW IN THE
GULF MOVES SOUTHEAST. LATE THURSDAY EVENING THE THERMAL TROUGH
BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS AND WILL PERSIST OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC PERSISTS
WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC TODAY...AND WILL ROTATE WEST
TO THE DATELINE AND CHUKCHI SEA BY THURSDAY EVENING. A 1002 MB LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT PRODUCT AT
22/1637Z SHOW THE STRATUS ON THE ARCTIC HAS MOVED INLAND OFF THE
COAST BETWEEN BARROW AND PRUDHOE BAY AND THE CLEARING CORRELATES
QUITE WELL WITH THE POSITION OF THE 564 DAM HIGH AT 500 HPA.
EXPECT CLEARING NORTH OF POINT LAY THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES
WEST...WITH STRATUS FLOWING BACK OVER THE COAST AND PLAINS FROM
EAST TO WEST BEHIND THE RIDGE. THE CLEARING WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL SWING A FRONT TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS...BUT EXPECT
EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING TAPERING TO 5 TO 15 MPH BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SCATTERED SHOWERS TAPERING OFF
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS AND WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA TO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM THIS EVENING WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER
KUSKOKWIM AND AROUND MINCHUMINA.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS IN THE ALASKA RANGE THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THEN A REPEAT TOMORROW FOR THE ALASKA RANGE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AS THE THERMAL TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

SATELLITE...NO SPORT MODIS MICROPHYSICS SINCE 22/0918Z SO NO HELP
THERE...BUT THE NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT PRODUCT FROM 22/1637 CLEARLY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE ARCTIC CRUSHING THE STRATUS AS
IT MOVES WEST.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...MODELS STILL TRENDING TO A
SOLUTION WITH A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE
UPPER YUKON. STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHOWERY
REGIME OVER THE INTERIOR EAST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.FIRE WEATHER...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALASKA RANGE AND ADJACENT ZONES TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
INTERIOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING EVEN LOWER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT TO
REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER. OVERALL WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 30 TO 40
PERCENT TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MIN RH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S
AND 30S FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE BROOKS RANGE
AND FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ELEVATED RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 40 PERCENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS HAVE ALL LEVELED OFF AND WILL TREND DOWN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO NO ISSUES AT THIS TIME AND DO NOT EXPECT
ANY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

SDB JUL 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 221217
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
317 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 60 HOURS OR SO...THEN
DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE MAJOR FEATURES SHOW UP BUT THEY
ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE BALLPARK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE OVER THE ARCTIC AND HOW THEY HANDLE THE UPPER LOW
AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. THEY DO AGREE THAT
THIS WILL BE A HIT AND RUN COLD SNAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
THEY DISAGREE ON JUST HOW COLD WITH SOME OF THE MODELS HANGING ON
TO CLOUDS WHILE OTHERS CLEAR US OUT RAPIDLY. THE TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE COULD BE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MODELS FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE NAM SINCE THEY
HAVE BEEN DOING A LITTLE BETTER JOB OF LATE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL
MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. 498 DAM LOW OVER BARROW WITH TROUGHING
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 495 DAM THEN MOVES EAST OVER
DEMARCATION POINT BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO CANADA. A
RIDGE WILL CUTOFF THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA WITH A SHORTWAVE
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER BARROW TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WEDNESDAY
MORNING THAT WILL ROTATE TO LIE FROM OVER NUIQSUT TO BETTLES TO
MCGRATH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN FROM BARTER ISLAND TO CHALKYITSIK
TO DOT LAKE THURSDAY MORNING...AND INTO CANADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE RIDGE THAT CUTS OFF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH THE RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR. THE RIDGE CONTINUES
BUILDING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND THE RIDGE WILL LIE FROM THE
WESTERN PACIFIC NORTH OVER KING SALMON TO EMMONAK TO THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING...MOVING EAST TO LIE OVER WHITTIER TO
ANVIK TO SHISHMAREF TO WRANGEL ISLAND THURSDAY EVENING...AND SITKA
TO TANANA TO POINT HOPE FRIDAY MORNING...AND DEASE LAKE BC TO
EAGLE TO POINT LAY LATE FRIDAY. A 531 DAM HIGH WILL BREAK OFF THE
RIDGE SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE UPPER KOYUKUK FLATS...THEN MOVE
SLOWLY EAST. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CUTOFF TROUGH WILL WILL
MERGE WITH A LOW MOVING OFF SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA AND DIG INTO THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
THURSDAY MORNING AT 502 DAM...THEN OVER UNIMAK ISLAND AT 498 DAM
FRIDAY MORNING...AND OVER SAND POINT SATURDAY MORNING AT 516 DAM.
AT 850 HPA...THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM LIES FROM CHALKYITSIK TO
AMBLER TO GAMBLE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS
SOUTH A BIT AND WILL LIE FROM EAGLE TO DELTA JUNCTION TO NENANA TO
TANANA TO KOTZEBUE BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING PUSHED BACK
NORTH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY RETURNING TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW.

SURFACE...RELATIVELY FLAT PATTERN OVER THE AREAS WITH WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW 991 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA. WEAK EAST TO WEST TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA.
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND THE ARCTIC. PATTERN A
BIT MORE ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECT
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUDY...THIS
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY HINDER THE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE INTERIOR THURSDAY WITH A 1028 MB HIGH OVER
AMBLER THURSDAY MORNING...MOVING TO FAIRBANKS AT 1031 MB THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO CANADA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT
WEAKENS. THE NEXT BIG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 964 MB...THEN OSCILLATE AROUND A
BIT OVER THE BERING SEA BEFORE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
AT 951 MB THURSDAY EVENING...AND OVER UNIMAK ISLAND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AT 962 MB.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE COAST AND
PLAINS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE ARCTIC ABOUT 150
MILES OFFSHORE THAT IS DRAGGING EAST. SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS AT 22/0731Z PRETTY MUCH TELLS THE STORY WITH
STRATUS...SOME PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OF THE PASSES THAT
HAVE COLD AIR RUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THEM. TEMPERATURES STEADY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME AREAS IN THE PLAINS FALLING TO AROUND 40
BELOW WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 20S BELOW RANGE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE BERING SEA
THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT SOME FLURRIES WITH THAT. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST SO WILL THE STRATUS AND FLURRIES SO ONLY EXPECTING
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD AIR DIGGING SOUTH BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
DOWN AS THE SKIES CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF
ANVIK WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A FEW OF THE INTERIOR AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES FALL
TO THE 40 BELOW RANGE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION AND THE BERING STRAIT WHICH
WILL SEE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WEDNESDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST PROBLEM
SINCE THE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER WITH THE CLOUDS STICKING AROUND. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE CLOUDY WITH FLURRIES...THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHEN
THE SHORTWAVE CLEARS OUT THE CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS HANG IN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE AROUND. THAT WOULD KEEP US MUCH WARMER THAN IF
WE CLEAR OUT IN THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN FACT
TEMPERATURES COULD BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES DIFFERENT IF THE CLOUDS
HANG AROUND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE ALASKA
RANGE SATURDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ205.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220.

SDB DEC 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 221028
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
228 AM AKDT TUE SEP 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AT 500 HPA AS THEY CONTINUE
WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH AROUND 72 HOURS BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP. AT THE SURFACE SHORT TERM LOOKS
GOOD...BUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDTERM THE POSITION AND STRENGTH
OF FEATURES DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HANDLING OF
THE EXTRA TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE BERING
SEA. MODELS MAINTAIN SOME SIMILARITY EVEN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS WILL
USE A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ALCAN AREA
WITH 533 DAM LOW MOVING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE ALCAN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING THEN MOVES EAST
OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY. BUILDING RIDGE HAS MOVED OVER THE WEST
COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW THAT MOVES TO WRANGEL ISLAND BY THURSDAY
MORNING. RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND FLATTEN AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE
CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY EVENING THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVER
THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. AT 850 HPA...WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY...STRONGEST OVER THE WEST COAST. ZERO
ISOTHERM WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH ABOVE ZERO
TEMPERATURES REACHING NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE CHUKCHI
SEA BY LATE THURSDAY.

SURFACE...999 MB LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTH AS RIDGE
MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND LIES FROM ADAK TO ST PAUL
ISLAND TO NOME TO NUIQSUT TO BANKS ISLAND THIS MORNING. WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE RIDGE WILL LIE FROM COLD BAY TO SLEETMUTE TO BETTLES
TO BANKS ISLAND...AND BY THURSDAY MORNING FROM KING SALMON TO
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO OLD CROW THEN EAST. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO 200 NM WEST OF
WRANGEL ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. FRONT MOVES OVER THE COAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO 100 NM EAST OF WRANGEL
ISLAND...THE FRONT MOVES TO THE MIDDLE YUKON BY THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ARCTIC WITH A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HANG ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THURSDAY MORNING...AND BE
PUSHED INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY MORNING BY THE ADVANCING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

ARCTIC COAST...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE TODAY. NOT MUCH GOING ON TO THE
WEST AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. STRATUS CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST UNDER THE RIDGE. WINDS ARE TURNING TO OFFSHORE AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WEST OF THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCREASING WINDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH AROUND CAPE LISBURNE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
SPREADING UP THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...RIDGE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST AND SOUTH TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVING IN BEHIND THE
RIDGE WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS. WINDS WILL START TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE NORTHERN
CHUKCHI SEA COAST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA MEANS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH WILL START ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
LATE THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST OVER THE COASTAL AREAS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 0.75 INCH OVER THE
NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST AND THE NOATAK RIVER BASIN...WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND NORTON SOUND WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE FROM DENALI PARK WEST TODAY AND OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE...OTHERWISE CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL SWITCH AROUND
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTHEAST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS.

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. INCREASED SURF CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NORTON SOUND...KOTZEBUE SOUND...THE NORTHWEST
COAST...AND AROUND BARROW. MODELED COASTAL SURGE IN THOSE AREAS
IS CURRENTLY UP TO 2.5 FEET WHICH IS NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
BARROW...KOTZEBUE...AND SHISHMAREF.

.HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE UPPER
NOATAK WITH THE INCOMING RAINFALL.

.SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 22/0749Z SHOWS A
RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE ARCTIC NORTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AND NORTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA...THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...AND A BIG PATCH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE YUKON FLATS TO THE TANANA FLATS AND OVER THE
NORTH SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE. GOES MVFR PROBABILITY
PRODUCT AT 22/0930Z AND OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM IT.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SDB SEP 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 212125 CCA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
125 PM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITIONS OF THE MAJOR FEATURES OUT TO
120 HOURS OR SO. AS IS GENERALLY THE CASE...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
A LITTLE OVER EXUBERANT WITH THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...SO WILL
LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM FOR COVERAGE. THE 850 TEMPERATURE
INITIALIZED ABOUT 0.5 DEGREE WARMER THAN THE 12Z UPPER AIR AT
MOST SITES...THE EXCEPTION WAS BARROW AND THEY INITIALIZED ABOUT
0.5 DEGREE TOO COLD.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...BIG COL OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
568 DAM HIGH OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA AND A 598 DAM HIGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC...AND A 542 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WITH A 544 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. COL
DEVELOPS INTO A TROUGH AS THE HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC MOVES WEST AND
WEAKENS TO 565 DAM...THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WEAKENS A
LITTLE...AND THE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA PUSHES EAST OVER THE
PRIBILOFS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO KODIAK ISLAND
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA.

SURFACE...RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND
STRENGTHEN A BIT WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP...THEN RELAX
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SWINGS TO THE WEST NEAR THE DATELINE. WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN YUKON TO COPPER RIVER
BASIN TO UPPER KUSKOKWIM TO BERING STRAIT TODAY AND WILL REMAIN
IN THAT GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 16 HOURS WHEN A 998 MB LOW
DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN ALASKA RANGE...THEN MOVES TO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 1002 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER BARREN ISLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST TO THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER YUKON THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...EAST OF POINT LAY OVER THE COAST
STRATUS...FOG...WINDS...NOT GOING TO SEE MUCH CHANGE HERE. MODIS
SPORT 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 21/1547Z SHOWS THE STRATUS REACHING
ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND OVER THE PLAINS...BUT EXPECT THAT TO BURN
OFF PRETTY QUICKLY INLAND DURING THE DAY OVER THE PLAINS.
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE AT TIMES...BUT FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
IN OFF THE ARCTIC AND WITH IT STRATUS. NOT SEEING ANY REASON FOR
THAT TO CHANGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY...THEN START TO DIMINISH. WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME AREAS GUSTING TO AROUND
35 MPH. INLAND AREAS ON THE PLAINS AND THE BROOKS RANGE AND SOUTH
OF POINT LAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER
WINDS THAN THE COASTAL AREAS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO GALENA TO MINCHUMINA
AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF KALTAG AND OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST
AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE SOME SHOWERS MAY LEAK INTO DENALI NP AND
AROUND LAKE MINCHUMINA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF
THE RANGE...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS IN THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT THEM TO GET NORTH OF THE RANGE...THEN SOME OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY. AS THE THERMAL TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS MICROPHYSICS AT 21/1547Z SHOWS THE STRATUS
ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND PLAINS...AND DENSE FOG OVER THE YUKON
RIVER EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE FOG IN OVER THE YUKON RIVER IS
CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 21/1600Z.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
THE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR STARTING SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
EXTENDING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH SOME
DRYING IN THE CENTRAL...NORTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES DIPPING BACK BELOW 40 PERCENT. THERMAL
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WEST COAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS TO THE COAST. THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS RUNNING UP A BIT FROM THE LAST RAIN
EVENT...BUT NOT NEAR ANY ACTION STAGE. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS
TRENDING SLOWLY UP STILL BUT THEY WILL START TO TREND DOWN AS
WEEK GET INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SDB JUL 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 152233
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
133 PM AKST SUN NOV 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. NEAR
TERM THROUGH 36 HOURS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. BEYOND THAT
THEY START DIVERGING RAPIDLY ON POSITION OF THE MAJOR FEATURES
WITH THE GFS MOVING THINGS EAST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE EC AND
CANADIAN MODELS...AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE NAM. WILL LEAN ON
A BLEND OF THE CURRENT DATABASE AND MODELS FOR FIRST 36 TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY...AND LEAN TOWARD THE GFS WITH A BLEND FOR
THE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. EXTENDED PERIODS WILL GET
MORE INTERESTING AS THE MODELS SHOW BIGGER SPREADS AS WE MOVE
INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PERIOD WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...BROAD TROUGHY PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA. A 506 DAM LOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE YUKON. A 508 DAM LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE UPPER
KOBUK BY MONDAY EVENING. A 498 DAM LOW ON THE SIBERIAN ARCTIC
COAST WILL MOVE TO THE GULF OF ANADYR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
BECOME STATIONARY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
RANGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN BUILD NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BERING STRAIT DEEPENS. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM OVER
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO CHIGNIK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES
EAST AS I MASHES THE RIDGE DOWN A BIT AND WILL LIE FROM COLDFOOT
TO CORDOVA BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES INTO THE YUKON. THE
RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH AND COVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE AS TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
LATE IN THE WEEK. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES OVER THE INLAND AREAS
AND ARCTIC WILL REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...COASTAL AREAS A BIT WARMER. AS WE MOVE
INTO THE MID RANGE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL START OVER THE
WEST COAST SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT...AND EVENTUALLY OVER MOST
OF THE STATE.

SURFACE...996 MB LOW NEAR YAKUTAT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A 988 MB
LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS EVENING. THE 988 MB LOW WILL
MOVE TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN
INLAND OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. A 993 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE
GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY. A 994 MB LOW OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND
WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE LOW OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BERING STRAIT MONDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS EVENING WILL PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ARCTIC
WILL REMAIN WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR TUESDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS
IMAGERY AT 15/1519Z SHOWS SOME PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL
ARCTIC COAST AND OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN WITH MORE NORTH OF THE
COAST MOVING SOUTH. SO EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY WITH FLURRIES OVER
THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. MAINLY FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS SO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NO BIG CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP OVER
THE ARCTIC PLAIN WINDS WEST OF BARROW WILL BE EAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH WINDS EAST OF BARROW WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER
THE BERING STRAIT WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT OVERALL PRETTY QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. MID WEEK WILL BRING A
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL SEND SEVERAL WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOOKING
LIKE THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL ISSUES...BUT WILL WATCH
IT CLOSELY SINCE A SMALL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY THE LOWS COULD
BRING BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEST COAST. A FEW
FLURRIES OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL BE ABOUT IT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS ST LAWRENCE
AND TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA TUESDAY EVENING...THEN TO THE SEWARD
PENINSULA AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
LIGHT WITH GENERALLY NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS MONDAY
EVENING. CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
BREAKING UP. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE AND THOSE WILL MAINLY BE
INDUSTRIAL TYPE FLURRIES...BUT NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER IN THE CLOUDY AREAS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE WEST COAST AS THE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS MOVE TO THE
AREA. MODELS STILL SHOWING QUIET A BIT OF SPREAD IN SPEED AND
LOCATION. AS IT STANDS IT LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEMS WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT IT SHOULD NOT CREATE MANY PROBLEMS FOR AREAS
NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...BUT IF THE LOWS END UP BEING FURTHER
NORTH THAT WOULD BRING MORE PROBLEMS TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE BERING
STRAIT.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.

SDB NOV 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 142125
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
125 PM AKDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR...AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BREAKS AWAY FROM THE MAIN LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND MOVES SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEY ALSO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF MAJOR FEATURES OVER
THE ARCTIC AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MID AND EXTENDED PERIODS...PREFER
THE GFS SOLUTION A BIT MORE SINCE IS APPEARS TO BE MORE SEASONALLY
CORRECT SO IT WILL BE THE MAJORITY OF ANY BLEND. PRECIPITATION
WISE ALL THE MODELS ARE TRENDING THE SAME WAY SO WILL USE A BLEND
FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A LEAN ON THE SREF FOR PROBABILITIES.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A BRANCH OF THE RIDGE WITH 564 DAM HEIGHTS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR LIES OVER THE ALCAN BORDER TODAY AND
WILL MOVE EAST INTO CANADA. A SECOND BRANCH OF THE RIDGE LIES FROM
SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND TO EASTERN NORTON SOUND THEN NORTHWEST OVER
THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA...AND WILL SLIDE EAST TO LIE FROM YAKUTAT
TO LAKE MINCHUMINA TO POINT HOPE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH 564 DAM
HEIGHT REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...THEN FROM DAWSON TO
ATIGUN PASS TO POINT LAY BY SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY INTO
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN LOW
OVER THE BERING SEA TONIGHT AND LIE FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND TO
SOUTHWEST KODIAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM MCGRATH TO
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK TROUGHING
WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE LOW NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN A COOLING TREND. ZERO
ISOTHERM IS NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST AND WILL MOVE SOUTH TO LIE
FROM POINT LAY TO NUIQSUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME
STATIONARY...THEN SLIP SOUTH TO LIE FROM POINT LAY THEN ALONG THE
NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE TO BARTER ISLAND BY MONDAY
MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK.

SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE. WEAK RIDGING WILL SHIFT TO OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND UPPER
YUKON FLATS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND EXTEND EAST ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF
THE ALASKA RANGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS SATURDAY. TROUGH WILL LIE
FROM ST MATTHEW ISLAND TO KOTZEBUE SOUND THEN EAST TO BETTLES AND
SOUTHEAST TO DAWSON YUKON BY SUNDAY MORNING...REMAINING RELATIVELY
STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TROUGHING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH OVER
THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SHOWERS ENDING TONIGHT...BUT
STRATUS AND FOG PERSISTING OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A LITTLE
COOLER BUT NOT EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES UNTIL
MONDAY/TUESDAY FOR THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM ATQASUK TO
NUIQSUT. WINDS NORTHWEST TO NORTH BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST NEXT
24 HOURS. WINDS SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SURFACE LOW OVER THE PRIBILOFS
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SPREADING RAIN OR SHOWERS NORTH TO THE SEWARD
PENINSULA AND EAST OVER THE LOWER YUKON SOUTH OF GALENA WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THE NEXT 36 HOURS OF AROUND 0.50 INCH. WINDS ON
THE COAST GENERALLY OFFSHORE 5 TO 15 MPH AS THE LOW MOVES TO
NUNIVAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT INLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...DIRTY RIDGE WILL KEEP A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES SO WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY THEN A COOLING
TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EAST OF FAIRBANKS...SOUTH OF FORT YUKON...AND NORTH OF
CHICKEN SATURDAY EVENING.

.SATELLITE...QUITE A BIT OF MVFR ON THE GOES PROBABILITY PRODUCT
FROM 14/1745Z...MATCHES UP PRETTY WELL WITH THE SPORT MODIS 24HR
MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT...AND AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM IT. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN MOST OF THE ARCTIC EVEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SINCE IT WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE AREA.

.HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.FIRE WEATHER...QUIET. SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE...IF NOT WELL ABOVE...30
PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EXCELLENT RECOVERY WILL
CONTINUE...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SOUTH
OF CHICKEN AND EAST OF THE TOK CUTOFF WHICH WILL SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

SDB AUG 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 132148
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1248 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH
VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES. AFTER 12 HOURS WILL PRIMARILY GO WITH A
BLEND OF THE NEW GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECASTS TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY. FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PERSISTENCE
FOR MOST AREAS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR. A SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM 497 DAM LOW 200 NM NORTH OF
BARTER ISLAND OVER ARCTIC VILLAGE TO DENALI PARK TO ILLIAMNA AND
WILL MOVE INTO CANADA LATE THIS EVENING...A SECOND SHORTWAVE
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SOUTHWEST OVER DEADHORSE TO AMBLER AND WILL
ROTATE EAST TO LIE FROM THE LOW TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MINCHUMINA
LATE THIS EVENING. THE LOW MOVES TO 100 NM NORTHEAST OF DEADHORSE
WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER HELMUT MOUNTAIN TO
CENTRAL TO TALKEETNA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOMING STATIONARY.
A 500 DAM LOW IN SOUTHERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO 200 NM
WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THEN MOVE SOUTH
AROUND 502 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT OVER TANANA. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST IN THE
20 TO 25 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...978 MB LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THEN BE ABSORBED BY A 985 MB LOW THAT DEVELOPS THIS
EVENING AND MOVES NEAR CORDOVA. THE LOW WILL THEN PERSIST OVER
THE YAKUTAT AREA THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A LOW
MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY. A LOW IN SOUTHERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE NEAR ST MATTHEW
ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN SOUTHEAST TO THE PRIBILOFS BY
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BE
ABSORBED BY THE LOW IN THE GULF. A BROAD CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP OVER MAINLAND ALASKA SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS
IMAGERY AT 12/1943Z SHOWS SOME PATCHY STRATUS IN THE ARCTIC AROUND
THE LOW NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND AS WELL AS OVER THE PLAINS AND
NORTHWEST COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME MOVEMENT TO THE EAST IN
THE STRATUS AROUND THE LOW...WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT OVER THE
PLAINS AND NORTHWEST COAST BUT IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING VERY
SLOWLY EAST. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE OVER THE EASTERN
ARCTIC...THE LOW IS NOT MOVING SOON...SO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
HANG AROUND. ON THE NORTHWEST COAST STRATUS WILL PERSIST...BUT
EXPECT IT TO MOVE EAST INTO BARROW THIS AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER
AND TO NUIQSUT THIS EVENING. SOME FLURRIES IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE
CLOUDS...BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IF ANY IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE CHANGING MUCH...BUT EXPECT COLDER IF IT
CLEARS OUT. WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
TO THE EAST OF DEADHORSE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ALL IN ALL PRETTY QUIET. WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS...BUT NOT MUCH
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IF ANY. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING...BUT NOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD...AND WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH EXCEPT ON
THE MOST WESTERN CAPES WHICH WILL SEE WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND COULD SEE ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL LOOKS TO BE ONLY 2 TO 4
INCHES AT MOST. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE MUCH HARDER TO
FIGURE OUT WITH THE BENIGN PATTERN NOT MUCH IS MOVING AROUND SO
AREAS MAY SEE FOG AND STRATUS HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...LOOKING LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS GOING TO HANG AROUND THE AREAS SO SPITTY FLURRIES AND PATCHY
FOG WITH CONTINUE. LOW THAT SLUNG SOME SNOW OVER THE UPPER TANANA
AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY IS MOVING OFF SO THAT WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
WITH WEAK HIGH BUILDING OVER THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SOME CLEARING
ON SATURDAY...BUT THE RIDGE IS PRETTY DIRTY SO WILL KEEP MOST
AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES UNLESS AN AREA
CLEARS OUT ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW
THEM TO BOTTOM OUT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. A WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK COULD
PRESENT SOME PROBLEMS...BUT AT THIS TIME MODEL SPREAD IT TOO BIG
SO LITTLE CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-
PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SDB NOV 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 122112
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1212 PM AKST THU NOV 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE ONLY REAL
DIFFERENCE IS IN THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE POSITIONS. WILL
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY USING A BLEND OF THE CURRENT DATABASE AND
MODELS. WILL NUDGE THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES UP A BIT
WITH THE SREF.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH A A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND BERING
STRAIT. A SHORTWAVE LIES FROM A 494 DAM LOW IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC
SOUTHWEST OVER BARTER ISLAND TO GALENA. AS THE ARCTIC LOW SLOWLY
MOVES WEST THE SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TO LIE FROM OVER
BARTER ISLAND TO DELTA JUNCTION FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 500 DAM LOW
DEVELOPING OVER DELTA JUNCTION. A SECOND SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW WHICH WILL BE JUST NORTH OF DEADHORSE WILL MOVE OVER THE
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST THIS EVENING AND LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO
KOTZEBUE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW OVER DELTA JUNCTION WILL MOVE
EAST INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY MORNING AT 504 DAM WHILE THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LIE FROM BARTER ISLAND TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO SLEETMUTE BY SATURDAY MORNING. A 499 DAM LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO YAKUTAT THIS EVENING SPINNING
MOISTURE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE LOW WILL BE ABSORBED
INTO THE LOW OVER DELTA JUNCTION FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL BE ENHANCED BY A TRANSITORY RIDGE THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN IS SHOVED SOUTH BY THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC SATURDAY. A 495 DAM
LOW OVER CENTRAL SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL BERING SEA
BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. AT 850 HPA...COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 20 BELOW BY LATE SATURDAY...THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL SEE THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

SURFACE...963 MB LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST OVER GUSTAVUS TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS TO 974 MB. THE LOW
THEN SPLITS WITH A 981 MB LOW REGRESSING BACK OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND A 981 MB LOW MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUKON
TERRITORY. A 987 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC WILL REMAIN
QUASI STATIONARY INTO SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
ARCTIC AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. MOISTURE WILL SWING NORTH AROUND THE
LOW SPREADING SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THIS EVENING AND
WEST OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND NORTH TO THE YUKON RIVER BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING. A ENHANCED BAND
OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND CHUKCHI
SEA AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN
WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A LOW OVER NORTHERN KAMCHATKA
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA THIS EVENING REMAINING OVER
THE AREA...THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER COLD BAY BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SPORT MODIS IMAGERY AT 12/1539Z
SHOWS A PRETTY DISTINCT CLEARING LINE OVER THE ARCTIC. BARROW HAS
CLEARED OUT AND IR SATELLITE INDICATES THE CLEARING LINE IS
CONTINUING SLOWLY SOUTH AND IT LOOKS PRETTY CLEAR OVER THE ARCTIC
WATERS FOR NOW...BUT THE NEXT WAVE WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE
COAST LATER THIS EVENING. EXPECT FLURRIES IN AREAS WITH CLOUDS
WITH NO ACCUMULATION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOR THE ARCTIC
COAST...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND BARTER ISLAND WHERE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TO 15 TO 25 MPH. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
SINCE THERE IS SOME CLEARING GOING ON AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE THE
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IF IT STAYS CLEAR.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...BAND OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA...THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA...AND LOWER YUKON DELTA. SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE AREAS SOUTH OF THE BERING
STRAIT MOVING EAST TOMORROW OVER THE NORTON SOUND REGION. ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND THE LOWER YUKON
DELTA COAST COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INLAND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER KOYUKUK RIVER IS
KICKING OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECT IN THE INLAND AREAS. NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE TREND NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WINDS ON THE COAST
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 25 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND LOWER YUKON DELTA COASTS.
INLAND AREAS WILL HAVE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...LOW IN THE GULF IS SPINNING
MOISTURE UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO
THE THE AREA THIS EVENING. SNOW IS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED IN THE
SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IT MOVING
NORTH AND WEST AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD YAKUTAT. SNOW WILL SPREAD
OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND UPPER TANANA THIS EVENING THEN
WEST OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY BY
FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY WILL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP A BIT
TO 2 TO 4 INCHES. FROM DELTA JUNCTION WEST SNOWFALL WILL TAPER
FROM AROUND AN INCH TO TRACE AMOUNTS IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE.
COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL HELP
KEEP THE TEMPERATURE UP A BIT...BUT WHEN IT CLEARS OUT AGAIN
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START FALLING AGAIN.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CURRENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS BECOME INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT A MORE ACTIVE AND
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A STORM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA OR ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN SIBERIA COAST. A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT COULD BEGIN
ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOW SPREADING TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY. A
MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR...BUT 1000-850 MB LAYER MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW IN THE INTERIOR AND MOST OR ALL OF THE
WEST COAST. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
EVOLUTION AND DETAILS OF THIS MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. RF

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

SDB NOV 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 072119
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1219 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS STARTING TO SHOW UP AS WE MOVE
PAST THE NEAR TERM. THEY CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
SHORT TERM AND ARE COMING IN LINE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. INITIALIZED WELL AT 18Z AGAINST THE SURFACE ANALYSIS.
WILL GO WITH A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM...BUT EVEN THAT WILL BE A
BIT PROBLEMATIC...WITH THE STRATUS FLOATING AROUND AS WELL AS
DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING PATCHES. THE MODELS JUST DO NOT HAVE
THE ABILITY TO FORECAST THE STRATUS AND THE DYNAMICS IT CREATES.
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE SINCE ANY CLEARING WILL ALLOW
FOR MAX COOLING.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...503 DAM LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA HAS MOVED
OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AT 500 DAM...AND WILL
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO BE OVER BARROW AT 499 DAM TUESDAY
MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TO 493 DAM AS IT SITS
OVER BARROW WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING AND CONNECTING UP WITH A 499
DAM LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE LIES FROM
WATSON LAKE TO YAKUTAT TO ANVIK AND SOUTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
AND WILL WEAKEN TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS AS THE AXIS MOVES TO LIE
FROM DAWSON TO GALENA TO OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL WORK
IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND LIE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. A
A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC. A 1002 MB LOW THAT
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT NEAR BARROW REMAINS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS TROUGHING EXPANDS TO THE EAST AND A 999 MB
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR MCKENZIE BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

SATELLITE...MODIS AND NPP VIIRS SPORT NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ESSENTIAL IN PINPOINTING THE STRATUS OVER THE
STATE THE LAST FEW DAYS. PRODUCT AT 07/1534Z CLEARLY SHOWS THE
STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR...NORTHWEST COAST...CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...AND MACKENZIE
BAY...AS WELL AS THE SHREDS THAT ARE JUST FLOATING AROUND. SPORT
PRODUCTS ARE GREAT TOOLS FOR TRACKING THE STRATUS.

ARCTIC COAST...WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND STRATUS HAS
DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF NUIQSUT SO FAR. EXPECT IT TO EXPAND TO
THE EAST...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN TO SAY THE LEAST. QUITE A BIT
OF STRATUS IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE CLOUDY BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES
FOR MOST AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS AS THE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES STEADY TONIGHT IN THE
WESTERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS PERSISTS AND STEADY OR RISING TO THE
EAST AS THE CLOUDS MOVE INTO...DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS...STRATUS REMAINS OVER
THE NORTHWEST AREAS BUT APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING ALONG THE EDGES
A BIT. EXPECT SOME CLEARING...BUT SHREDS OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OR FLOAT THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME FLURRIES. NOT
EXPECTING THE STRATUS TO REDEVELOP...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE
IT COULD. SOME WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER YUKON AND AROUND
NORTON SOUND WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH NEAR THE LOWER YUKON
COAST. TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER ON THE LOWER YUKON..INLAND AREAS
WITH STRATUS WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER TO FIGURE OUT AS TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY IN AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT...SO WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE COLDER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BE WARMER IF THEY
REMAIN OR BECOME CLOUD COVERED.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THE STRATUS REALLY DID A NUMBER ON
THE TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT WITH THE AREA MAINLY MUCH WARMER
SINCE THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE
FORECAST TODAY IS JUST A DIFFICULT SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SIGNIFICANTLY IF IT CLEARS OUT. THERE IS NO INDICATION ON
SATELLITE OR IN THE THE MODELS THAT IT WILL...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD
A WARMER FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220.

SDB DEC 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 062237
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
137 PM AKST SUN DEC 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUED QUIET OVER THE STATE BUT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
IS STARTING TO SHOW UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN THE NEAR TERM WITH SOME DEVIATION AS THEY GO INTO
THE MID TERM. THE 12Z RUN INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS. WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM THEN LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE
LAST FEW RUNS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...503 DAM LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST TO BE OVER BARROW AT 499 DAM TUESDAY MORNING. AN EAST
TO WEST RIDGE THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL MOVE NORTH TO LIE FROM WATSON LAKE TO
YAKUTAT TO ANVIK AND SOUTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS AS THE
AXIS MOVES TO LIE FROM DAWSON TO GALENA TO OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE RETREATS TO THE EAST A
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER BARROW WILL EXTEND SOUTH TO A
501 DAM LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

SURFACE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA. A 1014 MB HIGH NEAR BANKS ISLAND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ARCTIC.
A 974 MB LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST NEAR SITKA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH AND DISSIPATE NEAR CAPE SPENCER MONDAY AFTERNOON. A 968
MB LOW NEAR NIKOLSKI REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. A 964 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND MOVE
TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA BY TUESDAY MORNING AT 952
MB...THEN SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO BE NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

SATELLITE...MODIS SPORT NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 06/2055Z SHOWING
SOME LARGE PATCHES OF STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND
ARCTIC AS WELL AS THE MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF KALTAG. THERE IS
ALSO A LARGE PATCH THAT HAS MOVES WEST OVER THE YUKON FLATS AND A
PATCH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY.

ARCTIC COAST...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THE
ONLY QUESTION WILL BE WHEN THE LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA. SOME PATCHY STRATUS IS ALREADY FLOATING AROUND BUT EXPECT
THAT TO EXPAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES ACROSS
THE AREA. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 20 MPH.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS...MAINLY NORTH OF
KALTAG AND NOT MOVING MUCH. EXPECT SOME FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL GENERALLY BE
OFFSHORE WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES UNLESS IT CLEARS OUT IN AREAS AND THEN THE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL PRETTY SHARPLY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
FAIRBANKS AREA...AND STRATUS HAS MOVED OVER THE YUKON FLATS. SEE
NO REASON FOR IT TO DISSIPATE. FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WITH CLEAR AREAS
SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP SHARPLY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SDB DEC 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 061100
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
300 AM AKDT THU AUG 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...FEW HOURS SLOW IN MOVING THE TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR
EAST ON INITIALIZATION AT 06Z...BUT OVERALL THEY HAVE BEEN PRETTY
GOOD THE LAST FEW RUNS. GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODELS AS THEY MOVE INTO
THE MID RANGE.

ALOFT...SHORTWAVE HAS COME INTO PHASE WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WILL MOVE EAST TO LIE FROM OVER KOMAKUK
BEACH YUKON TO GLENNALLEN BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND OUT OF THE
STATE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM BRISTOL
BAY TO NORTH OF BARROW THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TO LIE FROM
KODIAK ISLAND TO EAGLE TO BARTER ISLAND AND NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
INTO CANADA...WHILE WEAK RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SOUTHEAST
OF FAIRBANKS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE THURSDAY EVENING AS A 537 DAM LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST OVER WRANGEL ISLAND. THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS
IT MOVES NEAR THE NORTHWEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AT 532 DAM WITH
TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW MOVES TO 150 NM NORTH
OF BARROW AT 530 DAM WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER
KOTZEBUE AND NUNIVAK ISLAND. BY MONDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE 300
NM NORTH OF CAPE HALKETT WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER
AMBLER AND NUNIVAK ISLAND.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH BEING SHOVED INTO THE YUKON THIS MORNING.
RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE FROM A 1020 MB HIGH 100
NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY TO A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
LIE FROM THE UPPER YUKON FLATS TO NUNIVAK ISLAND TO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 998 MB 200 NM NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL
ISLAND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO BE 150 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT LAY
FRIDAY MORNING AT 1000 MB. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD EAST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE INTERIOR.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WITH HIGH NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY
OFFSHORE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST...FLOW TO THE WEST OF DEADHORSE AND
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST. AS HIGH MOVES EAST TODAY OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL SPREAD EAST AND STRENGTHEN A BIT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. NOT MUCH
PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF...BUT AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
CHUKCHI SEA TODAY IT WILL PUSH A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST
COAST SPREADING RAIN AS FAR EAST AS BARROW BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. THE LOW WILL ALSO BRING SOME
MODERATE SURF TO THE NORTHWEST COAST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT EROSION.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHOWERS
MOVING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BERING STRAIT TONIGHT IT LOOKS
QUIET TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER MOST
COASTAL AREAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST SLOWLY. WINDS TO
30 MPH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA...OTHERWISE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15
MPH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE
MOVED EAST OF A LINE FROM CHALKYITSIK TO BIRCH LAKE AND SOUTH.
EXPECT THEM TO SETTLE DOWN A LITTLE THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AND IN THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY SOUTH OF AMERICAN SUMMIT. REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH NO SHOWERS EXPECTED.
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN SPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES TODAY...THEN WARMING BACK UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY.

.HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.FIRE WEATHER...MOST AREAS REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 MPH SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RED FLAG
CONDITIONS TODAY OR FRIDAY. EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. QUITE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...SO MAY SEE A FEW FIRES START UP
IN ZONES 220 AND 223.

.HYDROLOGY...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SO RIVERS WILL REMAIN STEADY
OR FALLING SLOWLY.

.SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS RGB NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT
06/0843Z IDENTIFYING A LOT OF STRATUS OVER THE ARCTIC AND IT IS
CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR PRODUCT. LOOKS LIKE THE LOWEST
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE...BUT STRATIFIED DECK OF CLOUDS REMAINS
OVER THE AREA.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

SDB AUG 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 052215
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
115 PM AKST SAT DEC 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
HANDLING THINGS WELL OF LATE AND INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIODS OVER THE ARCTIC SINCE THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY
BEYOND 132 HOURS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN INTO CANADA BY LATE
EVENING. 507 DAM LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST. A 501 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE
SOUTHWEST...THEN SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AN EAST TO WEST
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WITH THE AXIS LYING FROM WATSON LAKE TO
YAKUTAT TO BETHEL TO ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM WHITEHORSE TO ANCHORAGE TO ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN FROM DAWSON TO MANLEY HOT
SPRINGS AND OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY TUESDAY MORNING. A 513
DAM LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE TO OFF THE COAST NEAR SITKA
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER YAKUTAT BY
MONDAY MORNING. A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TODAY
WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST.
A 507 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MONDAY AND MOVE TO
THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.

SURFACE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA WITH A 1038 MB HIGH OVER THE SIBERIAN ARCTIC AND A 958 MB
LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. A LOW COMPLEX WITH SEVERAL CENTERS
WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. A 964 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
WILL MOVE TO OFF THE COAST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE UP THE COAST TO NEAR SITKA BY MONDAY
MORNING. A 964 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY TUESDAY MORNING AT 949
MB...AND TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO BARTER ISLAND.

ARCTIC COAST...THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS IF AND POSSIBLY WHEN THE
STRATUS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE COAST...WITH NO OPEN WATER IT IS
MORE LIKELY THAT THE STRATUS WILL HOLD OFF UNLESS THERE IS
SOMETHING THAT BRINGS IT INTO THE AREA. A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST...SHOWS UP FAIRLY WELL ON THE 05/0826Z MODIS SPORT 25HR
MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT...MAY BRING SOME STRATUS TO THE AREA...BUT
FOR NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANYTHING THAT WILL LAST FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO SOME STRATOCUMULUS THAT CAN BE
SEEN ON THE GOES13 IR THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE ARCTIC...BUT THAT
APPEARS TO BE PRETTY BROKEN UP AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL APART
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS UP A BIT. MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 5
TO 15 MPH...THOUGH SOME GUST WINDS IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE
WILL CONTINUE NEAR PASSES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS
FLOATING AROUND...BUT NOT MUCH ORGANIZED OVER THE AREA. A PRETTY
INTERESTING AREA OF BLACK STRATUS SHOWING UP THAT EXTENDS FROM
AROUND LAKE ILLIAMNA NORTH OVER MCGRATH AND TANANA HAS DEVELOPED
AND CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. NOT SURE WHAT IS CAUSING THIS...BUT
IT SHOWS UP PRETTY GOOD ON THE GOES13 IR AND LOOKS LIKE IT REALLY
STARTED DEVELOPING ON THE 05/1030Z IMAGE. NOT SURE WHAT THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STRATUS WILL BE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT CONTINUES TO
EXPAND SO WILL KEEP IT OVER THE MCGRATH AND VICINITY AND SOUTHERN
ZONE 216 FOR THE NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE ALONG
THE COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL.
THE STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THAT EXTENDS NORTH FROM
AROUND LAKE ILLIAMNA CONTINUES TO EXPAND...SO WILL MAINTAIN IT
OVER THE AREA TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS...BUT NOT SURE WHAT THE
EVOLUTION OF IT WILL BE SO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT AS IT COULD
MOVE OVER PART OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WITH CLOUDY AREAS
MUCH WARMER THAT CLEAR AREAS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

SDB DEC 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 050951
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
151 AM AKDT WED AUG 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...RUN TO RUN CONTINUES TO BE GOOD. 00Z RUN INITIALIZED
WELL AT 06Z. BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH AS IT DIGS IN OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE TODAY AS IT
CONTINUES MOVING EAST. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT IN
THE POSITION AND EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT WILL MOVE TO THE
CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY. WILL USE THE NAM AND SREF AGAIN TODAY FOR
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

ALOFT...LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO CONTINUES TO DIG IN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
A 553 DAM LOW 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE EAST TO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
THE RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR YESTERDAY GETS SQUEEZED OUT WITH
SOME WEAK RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST THE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH BACK OVER
THE AREA WITH 561 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY
MORNING AND THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE
THURSDAY EVENING AS A 537 DAM LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER WRANGEL
ISLAND. THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AT 533 DAM WITH TROUGHING
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
BY SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW MOVES OVER BARROW AT 533 DAM WITH THE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER KOTZEBUE AND ST MATTHEW ISLAND. BY
MONDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE 400 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT
WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER AMBLER AND NUNIVAK
ISLAND.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A 1006 MB LOW
OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO
THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AND ANOTHER EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FORTYMILE COUNTRY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH A 1029 MB CENTER
EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO A 1022 MB CENTER IN
THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE RIDGE WILL TILT MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND THE HIGH IN THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE TO 100 NM
NORTHEAST OF BARROW BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT 1021 MB. A 1004
MB LOW IN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO 200 NM NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND
THURSDAY MORNING AT 996 MB...THEN CONTINUE EAST TO BE 250 NM
NORTHWEST OF POINT LAY FRIDAY MORNING AT 1000 MB. WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR FRIDAY. A
CONVERGENT AREA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STATE FROM DEADHORSE TO
FAIRBANKS TO LAKE MINCHUMINA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
EAST OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY...THEN SOUTHEAST OF DELTA JUNCTION
THURSDAY. FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW IN CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO
AMBLER TO NOME BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND FROM BARTER ISLAND TO
TANANA TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE COAST WITH
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AS THE HIGH BREAKS OFF AND MOVES TO JUST
NORTHEAST OF BARROW. AS IT MOVES EAST WINDS WEST OF BARROW WILL
BECOME OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST EAST OF BARROW AS THE HIGH MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE HIGH
ARCTIC. SOME CLEARING TODAY WEST OF BARROW WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW. AS SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES EAST RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
EAST OF BARROW WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE BROOKS RANGE AS
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. WINDS 5 TO 15
MPH FOR MOST AREAS TODAY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE WHICH WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE THERMAL
TROUGH IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS. AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
CHUKCHI SEA LATE THURSDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF ON THE
NORTHWEST COAST SO WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT IT.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...LOTS OF STRATUS IN THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS OF THE BERING AND CHUKCHI SEAS...NORTON AND KOTZEBUE
SOUNDS...AND THE BERING STRAIT. ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD SO EXPECT STRATUS TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE ALONG THE
COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SPREADING
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE THURSDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH SURF NORTH OF KIVALINA ON THE COAST SO WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT IT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...INTERESTING FORECAST TODAY. MOST OF
IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE CONVERGENT ZONE AND THERMAL TROUGH
ARE WHEN THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TO BE EAST OF FAIRBANKS
TODAY...BUT THE AREA COULD SET UP OVER FAIRBANKS TO BEGIN
WITH. SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY BE EAST OF A LINE FROM COLDFOOT
TO FAIRBANKS TO LAKE MINCHUMINA TODAY...THEN SOUTHEAST OF DELTA
JUNCTION ON THURSDAY. HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE 70S TODAY...THEN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY AND THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRIDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING. WINDS REMAINING LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 25 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.

.HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW AREAS MANAGED TO GET BELOW 30 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY YESTERDAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN
TODAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS KICKED OUT OF THE INTERIOR. SOME WINDS
IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT SO NO RED FLAG ISSUES. GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH RIDGE BUILDING BACK
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE FIRES TO KICK BACK UP. THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY WILL ALSO LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR NEW STARTS...MAINLY
EAST OF FAIRBANKS.

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS STEADY OR FALLING SLOWLY...SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY ISSUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS RGB NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT
05/0750Z CLEARLY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS FLOATING AROUND IN
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE BERING AND CHUKCHI SEAS...NORTON AND
KOTZEBUE SOUNDS...AS WELL AS OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE
LOWER YUKON DELTA.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

SDB AUG 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 041052
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
252 AM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...RUN TO RUN HAS BEEN GOOD WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
AROUND 48 HOURS THIS RUN. MODELS ARE REALLY HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME FIGURING OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE STATE
BEYOND THAT...BUT THERE ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN MOVING IT EAST IS
ONE FORM OR ANOTHER. GFS LOOKS A LITTLE OVER FORECAST WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AS USUAL AND THE ECMWF A LITTLE UNDER FORECAST...SO
WILL LEAN ON THE NAM AND SREF AGAIN TODAY.

ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ARCTIC THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA
AND BERING STRAIT BY LATE TONIGHT. 524 DAM LOW 400 NM NORTH OF
BANKS ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. THE
TROUGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG
SOUTH MERGING WITH A 549 DAM LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND.
THE WHOLE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE THE MARCH EAST TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE ALCAN BORDER
BY FRIDAY MORNING. RIDGING SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY WILL
BE PUSHED OUT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE AREA. A 534 DAM LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE...RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA AND CHUKCHI SEA WITH RIDGING BUILDING EAST OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST. THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS
AND SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN BE
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST AND TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY...RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG...AND WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS FRONT HANGS OVER THE AREA.
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL REACH NORTHWEST COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND
PUSH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH SO THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE IN AND NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY...BUT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY AS A HIGH OVER
THE ARCTIC BRINGS SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WEST OF DEADHORSE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY BUT TURN NORTHERLY BY LATE TODAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM
THE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS AROUND NORTON SOUND.
THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE END OF IT THOUGH AS THE CHANGE IN WINDS
WILL JUST PUSH THE STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTON SOUND COAST
AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. WEST WINDS
BECOMING NORTH...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. INLAND AREAS WARMER TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID
60S FOR THE MOST PART. COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTH AND DRAGS SOME COOLER ARCTIC AIR WITH IT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLEARING TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS OVER AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE CREST OF THE BROOKS
RANGE TODAY. WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
THEN COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ALMOST 15
DEGREES COOLER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN
THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY...THEN AS FRONT MOVES TO THE INTERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE ALCAN AND
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY.

.HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.FIRE WEATHER...PRETTY QUIET AT THE MOMENT...BUT THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY COULD BRING A FEW FIRES BACK TO LIFE. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF
THE YUKON RIVER. COOLER WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RISING
STARTING WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY COULD
LEAD TO SOME NEW STARTS.

.HYDROLOGY...SOME SLIGHT RISES ON THE GAUGES ON THE ARCTIC
RIVERS...BUT NOT MUCH AND DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO RISE MUCH MORE IF
ANY. NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED IN ANY DRAINAGES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

.SATELLITE...STRATUS VISIBLE ON THE SPORT MODIS RGB PRODUCTS AT
04/0707Z ON THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE ARCTIC NORTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE AND IN THE UPPER KOBUK. SPOTTED A INTERESTING FEATURE ON THE
NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT BAND PRODUCT AT 04/0029Z JUST NORTHEAST OF ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND THERE IS A LOW LEVEL VORTEX IN THE STRATUS LEAVING
A LITTLE CLEAR HOLE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

SDB AUG 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 031018
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
218 AM AKDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 60 HOURS BEFORE MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR. GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ON THE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH
OF THE BROOKS RANGE TO AROUND 577 DAM. FAST TRACKING ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE ARCTIC HAS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE THE CORRECT
TIMING FOR THEM SO WILL USE THE NAM AND SREF PRIMARILY FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND THE GFS FOR AMOUNTS.

ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC THAT
HAS A 526 DAM LOW 200NM NORTHWEST OF BANKS ISLAND CANADA AND A
542 DAM LOW 200 NM NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND. THE ZONAL FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WHEN A TROUGH STARTS DIGGING SOUTH
OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY TO THE CENTRAL
BROOKS RANGE WITH A 555 DAM LOW OVER ANAKTUVUK PASS WITH THE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO A 552 DAM LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND. RIDGING SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AS THE 579 DAM HIGH OVER ST MICHAEL MOVES EAST OVER
ANVIK THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVER LAKE MINCHUMINA BY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO A 577 DAM HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA AND AT 574 DAM HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES.

SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND A 1006 MB LOW 300 NM
NORTH OF DEADHORSE OVER THE ARCTIC TODAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING EAST FROM A 1028 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA TO A 1021 MB HIGH OVER DELTA JUNCTION THIS MORNING. THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY. A FRONT WILL LIE WEST TO EAST OVER THE
ARCTIC WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
RAIN TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING WILL
BUILD NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY THEN EAST OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF
FOG...AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL AREAS
TODAY WITH IT LETTING UP A BIT TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WEATHER FRONT LIES WEST TO EAST OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS IN THE BROOKS RANGE. ANOTHER SHOT
OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC INCLUDING THE BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH A
BIT THE WINDS OVER THE COAST AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ONSHORE FLOW IN THE COASTAL
AREAS WILL BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...AND SOME
DRIZZLE AT TIMES...TO THE BERING STRAIT AND AREAS SOUTH. INLAND
AREAS AND AREAS NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT WILL BE CLEARING TO
PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS GENERALLY WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LIGHT
WINDS INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MOST AREAS IN THE 70S TODAY WITH
QUITE A FEW AREAS REACHING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY.

.HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.FIRE WEATHER...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTED THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE AND IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN THE INTERIOR WILL BE MUCH
DRIER AND WARMER...SO THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
FIRES TO MAKE A COMEBACK. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MID WEEK THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME NEW STARTS IN THE
INTERIOR.

.HYDROLOGY...SOME GOOD RAINS EXPECTED OVER THE ARCTIC...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY PROBLEMS IN ANY OF THE DRAINAGES.

.SATELLITE...NOT ABLE TO SEE MUCH OVER THE ARCTIC ON THE SPORT
MODIS RGB PRODUCTS AT 03/0802Z AS HIGH CLOUDS MASK THE AREA...BUT
THE GOES MVFR/IFR SHOWING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MOST OF THE
COASTAL AREAS. SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME AND 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS RGB
PRODUCTS AT 03/0802Z SHOWING LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA AND SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND OVER
NORTON SOUTH AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA. SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR
MICROPHYSICS SHOWS LARGE AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE INTERIOR
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE ALASKA
RANGE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.

SDB AUG 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK68 PAFC 031406
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
506 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

.ANALYSIS...
THE UPPER LEVELS HAVE A WEAK NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH OVER THE
BRISTOL BAY INTERIOR EXTENDING ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE INTO
THE BARREN ISLANDS REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL AFFECT
ANCHORAGE BY TONIGHT AS THE WEAK RIDGE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL MOVES TO
THE NORTH. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THIS FEATURE WITH A
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTLINE WITH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE MODIS
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY IS SHOWING AREAS OF FOG ACCOMPANIED
BY LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE UPPER COOK INLET ALONG THE TURNAGAIN
ARM...THE LOWER SUSITNA VALLEY...THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THE
INTERIOR OF THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA THIS MORNING. WHILE THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OFFSHORE FLOW
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA HAS A RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND EXTENDING THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. FARTHER UPSTREAM IS A BROAD CLOSED LOW NEAR ADAK WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD NEAR 40N. ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM AT 300 MB THERE IS A STRONG 185 KNOT NORTHWESTERLY JET
STREAM DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. REFLECTED AT
THE SURFACE IS AN OCCLUDED 965 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF SHEMYA WITH
THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL BERING
SEA BEFORE EXTENDING THROUGH DUTCH HARBOR. THIS IS BRINGING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO THE CHAIN AND THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SHOWERY REGIME
BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REFLECTED
AT THE SURFACE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW
LOCATED SOUTH OF SHEMYA IN THE EARLY PERIOD...BUT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE MODELS TRANSITION THIS LOW INTO A COMPLEX LOW WITH
MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS JUST SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH PLACEMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW BECOMES A
BROAD COMPLEX LOW BY END OF THE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
ALL GUIDANCE IS QUICKLY TRENDING TOWARD A MINOR SNOWFALL OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A DEEP LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC EXTENDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD SPREADING MOISTURE NORTH AND WEST TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH BRISTOL BAY
AND BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS IT HITS THE OPPOSING FLOW OVER
THE GULF. THIS TROUGH WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE IN PLACE
AS WELL AS DEEP LAYER WEAK INSTABILITY (AS SEEN IN THE ANCHORAGE
SOUNDING) TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...IT DOES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
MESOSCALE BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW TO BRIEFLY SET UP SOMEWHERE OVER
THE WESTERN KENAI TO ANCHORAGE AREA. THUS THERE LIKELY WILL BE
SOME AREAS WHICH SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND DRIFT
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS LOW. ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
MOST PLACES...IT IS WARM ENOUGH IN THE CORDOVA AREA TO PRODUCE ALL
RAIN. ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER UPPER WAVE WILL FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL BRING
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF KING SALMON
TODAY. THAT WILL BE THE ONLY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. LOW STRATUS HAS FILTERED INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
AND DELTA WITHIN THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
HANG AROUND AS THE WEAK OUTFLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL SOUTH OF THE CHAIN TODAY AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH IT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE IN THESE PLACES...BEST CHANCES OVER SAINT GEORGE
ISLAND. ARCTIC AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL BERING WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS...WEAK FLOW AND NO MAJOR
FRONTS...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE JET STAYS
WELL SOUTH OF THE CHAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK IS CHARACTERIZED BY
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE GREATLY
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DOMINANT LOW CENTER WITHIN THE BROADER COMPLEX
LOW...HOWEVER 00Z GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE BY UPWARDS OF 400 MILES...MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT TO
NARROW DOWN ANY SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS. THERE IS ALSO GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A DEEP LOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST...BUT THIS
SYSTEM IS ALSO POORLY HANDLED BY THE MODELS AT THIS TIME.

THIS PATTERN IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO YIELD BENIGN CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF 50N AND
KEEPS THE STORM TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEREFORE REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
GULF COAST...WITH INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL STAYING MOSTLY DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. OUT WEST...THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COMPLEX LOW...WITH A MORE SHOWERY REGIME
OVER THE REST OF THE BERING BENEATH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 178
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180 181

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PLD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...CB

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 130232
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
932 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

.UPDATE...STILL EXPECT UPSTREAM SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL MN TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ALONG INSTABILITY
GRADIENT DRAPED ACROSS SE MN/ERN IA/WRN WI. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER WRN MN AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM LEFT
EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET SHOULD CARRY CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
SRN WI LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THINKING HRRR AND NAMNEST HAVE
BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTION AS NAM HAD GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE
INTIATION LOCATION WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN LATE IN THE AFTN. WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM TOO FAR
NORTH WITH ON-GOING CONVECTION AND LIKELY TO BE TOO SLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON PERIOD FROM 09Z THROUGH 13Z. NOT RULING OUT
ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF MAIN LINE DUE TO
INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...INCREASING LOW LEVEL AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE LIKELY TO CAUSE AREAS OF STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN
WRN CWA. CIG HEIGHTS FLIRTING WITH 3K FEET SO WL LIKELY HAVE TO
HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS PRIOR TO UPSTREAM CONVECTION AFFECTING TAF
SITES...ESTIMATED MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z.

.MARINE...LATEST MODIS ESTIMATE OF LAKE SURFACE TEMP MEASURED
TEMPS IN THE 63 TO 66 RANGE OFFSHORE. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...EXPECTED PATCHY
FOG TO TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD FOG LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY.
EXPECTED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT LIKELY TO REDUCE THE FOG
FOR A TIME BUT MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ND/ WESTERN MN
WILL EXPAND INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND EVENTUALLY CROSS SOUTHERN
WI...PROBABLY BETWEEN 4 AM AND 8 AM. THERE IS STILL SOME MINOR MODEL
VARIABILITY MEANING THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL TRACK. SPC IS FAVORING THE TRACK WHERE THE
STORMS DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND SOUTHWEST WI...
CLOSEST TO THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THIS IS A MORE COMMON
OCCURRENCE WITH STORMS. THE OTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE BULK OF
THE STORMS COULD TRACK DUE EAST WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND CROSS CENTRAL WI.

BOTH SCENARIOS IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI WITH
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... SO INCREASED THE POPS
AND KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND.
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE OVER 4000 J/KG WITH MODERATE BULK SHEAR TO
SUPPORT A PERSISTENT DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

MANY OF THE MODELS DELAY THE SYSTEM REACHING SOUTHERN WI UNTIL 09Z
OR LATER. THEY ARE ALSO SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
MAIN STORM COMPLEX DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. KEPT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE FOR THE FORECAST. THERE
IS A HAIL THREAT FOR ANY ORGANIZED STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MONDAY AFTERNOON... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WE ARE KEEPING OUR EYES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE
SHOWING HIGH CAPE WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY. IF
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP... STORMS SHOULD BE SUPERCELLULAR AND QUICKLY
EVOLVE INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS DEVELOP
THE STORMS IN CENTRAL WI BUT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT IN
SOUTHEAST WI.

SPC UPGRADED THE SOUTH HALF OF THE MKX AREA TO AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
THIS EVENT. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THE
CONVECTION EVOLVES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHEAST
EARLY DURING THE EVENING. MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE GFS WILL STILL
BE AROUND 2200 JOULES/KG WITH ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS.
THE NAM DIMINISHES THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOONER...BEING MAINLY
SOUTH OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MONDAY EVENING.

THE MID LEVELS DRY BY MID EVENING AS LOW AND MID LEVELS WINDS
BECOME WEST.

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AFTER A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH
A WEAKENING 85 KNOT 250 MB JET ACROSS ILLINOIS THAT SAGS A BIT
SOUTH.

THE GFS SHARPENS THE 700 MB MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AFTER IT EXITS THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE 700 MB RH DRIES TUESDAY BUT
850 MB LEVELS REMAIN MOIST WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 16 CELSIUS
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH EAST SECTIONS AND SPREAD INLAND
DUE TO THE COOLER AIR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.

AFTERNOON CAPES RANGE FROM 1200 NORTHEAST TO 2000 JOULES/KG.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...AND THERE IS ONLY A MINIMAL
CAP. THE GFS NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. A STRONG TRIGGER IS LACKING...BUT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE 700 MB FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT AS THE 850 MB
RIDGE MOVES TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW BEGINS
TOWARD EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVE TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...AND EVEN SOME MID 40S NORTH AREAS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE DURING THE AFTERNOON...OVER INLAND AREAS.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WITH ONE OR TWO
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN AS A STRONG TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RECEDES TO
THE EAST...A RETURN FLOW RESULTS IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PUSH A MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE QUICKER WITH A
STRONGER DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE LINGERING NORTH OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.

A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE 00Z ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE GFS HAS MORE
OF A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS KEEPING CLOUD BASES IN THE MVFR RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. I AM EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN SOUTHERN WI AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL STORMS ARRIVE AFTER ABOUT 08 OR 09Z
MONDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING A LINE OF STRONG STORMS TO TRACK OUT OF MN
AND HEAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
MAINLY A STRAIGHT-LINE WIND EVENT AND WE COULD SEE DAMAGING WIND
WITH THE LINE. ANY OF THE HEAVIER STORMS WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS AT LEAST FOR A TIME. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STORMS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY OUR ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER DURING THE DAY
MONDAY... ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THESE COULD BE SEVERE.

MARINE...

AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...
APPARENT ON WEBCAMS AND SOMEWHAT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
VISIBILITY WILL BE 1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 122130
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
130 PM AKDT SUN JUL 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT AT 500 MB...THE 547 DAM LOW LOCATED OVER 75N AND 147W WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND DEVELOP A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
TO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOPING INTO A 548 DAM
LOW BY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS WITH THE ECMWF TRYING TO FORM AN UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF
BARTER ISLAND ALONG THE BEAUFORT COAST WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING SEEMS TO BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE AS
THE GFS DOES DEVELOP A LOW BUT ROUGHLY 12 HOURS LATER. IN EITHER
CASE THIS WILL BRING SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MARINE
AND OFF SHORES MARINE ZONES ON WEDNESDAY ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST.
FOR THE INTERIOR...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FROM A COUPLE EASTERLY
WAVES WHICH IS BASICALLY ROTATING ENERGY AROUND A DOUBLE BARREL
LOW THAT DEVELOPS BY MONDAY MORNING WITH ONE LOW SOUTH OF PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. WE ALREADY HAVE ONE
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY AS
THE WEAK RIDGE GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD. THE STRONGEST EASTERLY WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY WHERE WE SHOULD
SEE SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND INCREASED CHANCE OF
WETTING RAIN FOR FIRE SITUATIONS.

AT THE SURFACE...THE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR EXTENDING FROM EAGLE TO GALENA WITH THE SURFACE LOW 0F
998 MB LOCATED OVER THE TANANA BASIN THIS EVENING. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES 1002MB OVER FORTY MILE COUNTY BY MID MORNING. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY MORNING EXTENDING FROM
A LINE FROM CHALKYITSIK TOWARD HUSLIA AND THEN DEVELOP INTO A 999
MB LOW AROUND BETTLES. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHES
AS A 1001 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ARCTIC EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW WITH STRATUS AND DENSE FOG
REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HAVE PLACED DENSE FOG HEADLINES FOR AREAS
FROM BARROW EASTWARD ALONG THE BEAUFORT COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE
AREAS OF DRIZZLE THAT CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE. BY MONDAY THE WINDS WILL START TO SEE WIND SHIFT
ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM EASTERLY TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST
AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE BROAD AREA LOW NEAR BETTLES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE
BRINGING INCREASES PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO THE AREA LATER IN
WEEK.

WESTERN COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MISSING THE SATELLITE VIIRS
IMAGERY...BUT STILL ABLE TO UTILIZE THE 24HR MICROPHYSICS RGB
PRODUCT FROM MODIS IN THE LATE MORNING WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE
STRATUS CLOUDS THAT MOVED ALONG THE KOTZEBUE AREA. HOWEVER
AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE WITH GREATEST CHANCES
EXTENDING FROM ANVIK TO RUBY. DENSE SMOKE LINGERED ACROSS SMILIER
AREA AROUND RUBY THROUGH NOON TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE SMOKE HAS
FINALLY STARTED TO INCREASE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 2 MILES IN
MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO MIXING THROUGH THE DAY AND ADDED SHOWERS
WILL HELP...RUBY STILL REMAINS AT HALF MILE AS OF 1 PM. THUS HAVE
EXTENDED THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY
POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PEDRO DOME RADAR WITH LIGHTING
STRIKES WITH THE STORM JUST SOUTHEAST OF STEVENS VILLAGE AND SOME
WITH THE STORMS LOCATED BETWEEN MCGRATH AND GALENA. EXPECTED
COVERAGE TO EXPAND FROM ALASKA RANGE TO FAIRBANKS TO FORTY MILE
COUNTRY TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DEVELOP JUST NORTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS ON THE RADAR. THE
STORM LOCATED NEAR THE AGGIE WILDFIRE HAD SOME RAIN AND SMALL HAIL
WITH THE STORM CELL. WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE INCREASE
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM MCGRATH TO NORTHEAST OF CIRCLE
WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER INCH WITH HALF AN INCH
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE
EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE NAM MODEL SUGGEST HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH
UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE BUT OTHER MODELS ARE LESS. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS...EXPECT GENERAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES...WITHIN AREA FROM LAKE MINCHUMINA TO
CIRCLE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY AND
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AND CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN. THE THERMAL TROUGH
NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY. A STRONGER EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINING DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
WETTING RAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE
MODELS THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES
EXTENDING ACROSS AN AREA FROM LAKE MINCHUMINA TO CIRCLE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER POCKET AMOUNTS WITH STRONGER STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

.HYDROLOGY...
DO NOT EXPECT ANY RISE IN THE RIVERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER MAY SEE A SLIGHT RISE IN THE CREEKS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
EASTERLY WAVE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODELS GENERALLY EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY
HEAVIER POCKETS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS WERE
HINTING THAT THIS WOULD FALL IN THE UPPER PORTIONS KUSKOKWIM RIVER
BASINS AS WELL AS THE CHATANIKA...CHENA..AND SALCHA RIVER BASINS.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ216-AKZ221-AKZ227.
&&

MAK JUL 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 071055
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
255 AM AKDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZATION WELL VS 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE
CHANGED A BIT ON THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND NORTH OVER THE AREA TODAY. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IN ALL THE MODELS IS NOW OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE WITH MORE OF A SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. WILL USE THE NAM AS THE BASE FOR PRECIPITATION FORECAST
WITH A NUDGE TO THE SREF TO GET PROBABILITIES UP A BIT.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE LIES FROM HIGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
OVER SITKA TO BURWASH LANDING YUKON TO FORT YUKON TO BARROW AND
NORTH THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BUILD A LITTLE BACK TO THE WEST AND LIE FROM
YAKUTAT TO WAINWRIGHT BY LATE EVENING...THEN FROM CORDOVA TO
WAINWRIGHT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE COL WILL COVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THURSDAY. A 530 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL
REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
HAS MOVED OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE BROOKS RANGE
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A 532 DAM LOW JUST SOUTH OF
BANKS ISLAND CANADA SWINGS A SHORTWAVE SOUTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE.
AT 850 HPA...COOLING HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE STATE AND TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WET COAST WILL FALL AROUND 5 CELSIUS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE ON THE NORTH SLOPE TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL UP TO 10 CELSIUS.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH LIES NORTHWAY TO FAIRBANKS TO HUSLIA TO
TELLER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SHOVED NORTH TODAY BY THE WEATHER
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT LIES
FROM ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO UNALAKLEET TO MCGRATH TO ANCHORAGE THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIE FROM KOTZEBUE SOUND TO ALLAKAKET TO EAGLE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTH
SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING. FROM MANLEY HOT
SPRINGS WEST STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS ALONG THE BROOKS
RANGE SEEING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH NEAR AN INCH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FROM MANLEY WEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERY
WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AREAS
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE EAST OF THE PARK AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DELTA JUNCTION TO CHICKEN WILL BE MOSTLY SHADOWED OUT. SOME GAP
FLOW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SETTLING DOWN.

SATELLITE...SPORT MICROPHYSICS MODIS AT 06/821Z HAS SOME STRATUS
OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE...WHICH MAY BE SMOKE...AND THE LOWER
YUKON DELTA. THE GOES MVFR/IFR PRODUCTS CONFIRM THE STRATUS OVER
THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...BUT NOT INDICATING THE STRATUS OVER THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. MODIS TRUE COLOR FROM MONDAY SHOWS A LARGE
AREA OF SMOKE COVERING MOST OF NORTHWEST ALASKA...THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE ARCTIC...MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...AND
AREAS NORTHEAST OF DELTA JUNCTION IN THE INTERIOR.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...COOLING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE STRATUS AND FOG TO
MOST COASTAL AREAS. WINDS EAST OF WAINWRIGHT ON THE COAST
INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE
EAST. WINDS FROM POINT LAY SOUTH EAST THIS MORNING...THEN
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THEM.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ALONG THE COAST A RECURRING
THEME SETTING UP AS LOW OVER THE BERING SEA REMAINS QUASI
STATIONARY AND WAVE SPIN AROUND THE LOW AND OVER THE COAST. BANDS
OF RAIN WILL PROVIDE SOME WETTING RAINS OVER MOST OF THE COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAINS IN ZONES 208 AND 217 BUT
NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY FLOODING ISSUES. ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF
TANANA...RAIN FROM TANANA WEST...WITH SOME SHADOWING NEAR THE
ALASKA RANGE SOUTH OF DELTA JUNCTION. SOME GAP WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL TAPER DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT TODAY WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. SMOKE MOVING AROUND WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...NO CHANGE FROM WHAT IT WAS LOOKING
LIKE YESTERDAY...A RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR WITH THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. WEAK INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME WEAK COOLING ALOFT...THE
COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO A MORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.FIRE WEATHER...DEWPOINTS ON THE RISE TODAY IN THE INTERIOR AND
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE UP ABOVE 30 PERCENT. WINDS NEAR ALASKA
RANGE PASSES WILL TAPER DOWN TO LESS THAN 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THE ARCTIC SLOPE
THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL LET FIRE FOLKS KNOW ABOUT THAT THIS
MORNING. DEWPOINTS START FALLING TONIGHT BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 SO NOT MUCH POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...BIG CHANGE IN MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY IS NOW PLACING
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ALMOST AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED. DO NOT EXPECT A RESPONSE IN MOST RIVER AND
STREAMS...BUT SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS COULD BECOME BANKFULL
FOR A SHORT TIME.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ221-
AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SDB JUL 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 061546
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1046 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LEAD ELONGATED BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE EASTERN CWA BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE
BEEN BEHAVING AND EXPECT THEM TO STAY THAT WAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM SO PROJECTED INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR ANY LATER DAY/EVENING PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES POOR AS WELL. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL
RH GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH
A TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS CIG HGT/SREF CIG PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING
HOLD WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY.

.MARINE...WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE.
THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO TURN
MORE MIXY REST OF THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER UPSTREAM
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST WI MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT NEARSHORE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SRN WI. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED
LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE UPPER 50S. WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO
TONIGHT. WL BE WATCHING SHORE WEBCAMS CLOSELY IN CASE FOG THICKENS.
MAY NEED TO ISSUE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY AS WOULD EXPECT FOG TO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WHEN SHOWERS AND STORMS CLEANSE
FOG FOR A TIME.

MBK

.BEACHES...WL CONTINUE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR OZAUKEE AND
SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES THIS AFTN AND EVE. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH. CURRENTLY THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD OVER SOUTHEAST WI
SLOWING DOWN MIXING BUT SOME THINNING EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTN.
HOWEVER BEACHGOERS WL NEED TO KEEP EYE ON RADAR AS THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST WI...MAY AFFECT LAKE MI SHORE DURING THE AFTN. THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STORMS DURING THE EVE.

MBK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY. AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES. THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 061049
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
249 AM AKDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
THEY CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. RUN TO
RUN THEY HAVE SHOWN GREAT CONSISTENCY THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. MODELS
SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
MUCH BETTER TODAY...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NAM IS DOING A
BETTER JOB HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION AND THE RAIN SHADOWING IN
THE EASTERN INTERIOR BETTER. WILL LEAN ON THE NAM FOR AREAS EAST
OF TANANA...WITH A BLEND OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
HALF OF THE STATE WITH THE AXIS LYING OVER CORDOVA TO BARROW THIS
MORNING WITH 576 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL ROTATE TO
THE EAST WITH THE AXIS MOVING TO LIE FROM THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE
ISLANDS TO DAWSON AND OVER DEADHORSE AND 570 DAM HEIGHTS
RETREATING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS. TWO 540 DAM LOWS OVER THE
BERING SEA WILL MERGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS
MORNING AND A SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO
LIE FROM THE LOW 533 DAM LOW SOUTHEAST OVER DUTCH HARBOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE TO LIE FROM THE LOW OVER
BRISTOL BAY AND SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN FROM THE LOW NOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA OVER
CAPE ROMANZOF AND EAST OVER THE COOPER RIVER BASIN TUESDAY
MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW TO
LIE OVER THE BERING STRAIT TO AMBLER BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST AND A 570 DAM HIGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC AND BUILD SOUTH OVER THE ARCTIC.
A 544 DAM LOW IN THE HIGH CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY LATE MONDAY EVENING...THEN OVER BANKS
ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING TO THE WEST
APPROACHES THE ARCTIC COAST...AND MOVES OVER THE COAST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE DRAGGING TO
THE EAST. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES PEAK LATE THIS EVENING OVER
THE INTERIOR AT AROUND 18 CELSIUS AND OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AT
AROUND 14 CELSIUS...THEN TREND DOWN TO AROUND 8 CELSIUS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AND AROUND 2 CELSIUS OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH LIES FROM GALENA TO EAGLE THIS MORNING
AND WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE YUKON FLATS BY TUESDAY MORNING. A
BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AROUND A
982 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ARCTIC WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. A DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING AND PUSH SOUTH TO THE UPPER
YUKON FLATS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS MORNING WILL LIE FROM ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
TO BETHEL TO COLD BAY MOVING TO LIE FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO
KALTAG TO SEWARD THIS EVENING...AND FROM POINT HOPE TO FAIRBANKS
TO CHISANA BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN FROM POINT LAY TO OLD CROW
YUKON AS THE FRONTS MERGE.

SATELLITE...SPORT MICROPHYSICS MODIS AT 06/0738Z HAS SOME STRATUS
IN THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA THAT IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST. ALSO SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS FLOATING AROUND IN THE
CHUKCHI SEA. DO NOT SEE THEM IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL FORECAST
AREAS...BUT WILL ADD IT INTO THE PUBLIC FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SUMMER WILL CONTINUE ON THE ARCTIC
COAST TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM...BUT THAT WILL
CHANGE PRETTY DRASTICALLY BY MID WEEK AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE. HIGHS
IN THE 60S ON THE COAST AND HIGHS ON THE ARCTIC PLAIN REACHING
THE 80S. MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN TODAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5
TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FRONT SPREADING RAIN OR SHOWERS
TO MOST AREAS SOUTH OF KOTZEBUE SOUND TODAY AND OVER THE WHOLE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. COASTAL WINDS WILL 10 TO 20 MPH FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH 15 TO 30 MPH WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND ON ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND. INLAND WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT. SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS...WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
PULLING SMOKE OUT OF THE INTERIOR TO COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...VERY WARM AND DRY WITH WINDS
INCREASING NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES. RED FLAGS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY AND THEY LOOK GOOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S FOR MOST AREAS. AREAS WITH HEAVIER SMOKE CONDITIONS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREE COOLER. NO SHOWERS TODAY WITH A GOOD CAP
STILL PRESENT AND PRETTY BENIGN CONVECTIVE INDICES. GUSTY WINDS
PICKING UP IN THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE ALREADY THIS MORNING AND
THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND SPREAD TO THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE AND THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PEAK
GUSTS STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 45 MPH. THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BUT EXPECT IT WILL SKIP OVER THE AREA
FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH AND REFORM NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. STILL SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE WEST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. WEAK INFLUX
OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME WEAK COOLING ALOFT...THE
COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO A MORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.FIRE WEATHER...WARMER AND DRIER TODAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE IN ZONES
223...225 AND 226 AS WINDS GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH NEAR PASSES. A
LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL
SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE WEATHER FRONT MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY WITH THE FRONT OUT WEST
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE THERMAL TROUGH.

.HYDROLOGY...HIGHEST PRECIPITATION VALUES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
ARE IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM DRAINAGES AND ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA.
AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL IN THOSE AREAS...BUT RIVERS AND
STREAMS IN THOSE AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH RESPONSE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230.
&&

SDB JUL 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KLOT 060809
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
309 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...
303 AM CDT

THROUGH TUESDAY...

NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY..THEN ON CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING IN OUR
NECK OF THE WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING HIGHER TONIGHT GIVEN A
LIGHT SSE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE EXCEPT LOCALLY WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE OR IN
RIVER VALLEYS. ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH SOUTH AND EASTWARD...WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DEBRIS SHIELD HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD. 925 MB THERMAL
RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING TO AT
LEAST 925 MB AND LIKELY HIGHER TO 850 WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 25/19C RESPECTIVELY WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 90. QUESTION
HOLDS AS TO ANY LINGERING SMOKE...WHICH PER MODIS IMAGERY IS
LARGELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE AREA...AND ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM
CONVECTION TO THE WEST PLAYS OUT. HAVE LARGELY HELD ONTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER GIVEN THESE
UNCERTAINTIES AND THINK THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE MORE EXTENSIVE TO
SUGGEST THE HIGHER TEMPS WOULD BE HARDER TO REACH...WHICH COULD
EVEN SUGGEST SOME COOLER TEMPS IN OUR NORTH/WEST. STILL...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO OR INTO THE 90S IN MANY AREAS WITH
THE INCREASED HUMIDITY.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR JUST YET AS TO HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT THROUGH TONIGHT BUT ARE COMING INTO BETTER GENERAL AGREEMENT
IN FRONTAL TIMING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AREA
TONIGHT. GFS/ECMWF/SREF STILL SUGGEST FRONT CLEARS THE CHICAGO
AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WHILE WRF-NAM AND NAM 4KM SUGGEST IT
WILL STILL BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THIS TIME. THERE ARE
SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MAY SLOW TINGS A TOUCH
AS THE UPPER JET DOES REMAIN FOCUSED TO THE NORTH...A SURFACE LOW
DOES LOOK TO TRACK ALONG FRONT FROM THE PLAINS AND NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR
TIMING...WHICH IS NOT A GREAT DIURNAL TIME TO MOVE THROUGH...AND
THERE IS NOTHING IN THE RAP RUNS TO SUPPORT THE WRF-NAM MODEL
SLOWER LOW PROGRESSION AND THEREFORE HOLD WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
FOR FRONTAL TIMING.

THEREFORE CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING
DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST AND RIDE ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCESS NORTHEASTWARD.
SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE THAT SOME
CONVECTION MAY CLIP FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND
SEVERAL HOPWRF-ARW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SEVERAL MEMBERS DO SUGGEST A
WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTION WHICH WOULD
KEEP A QUIET MORNING PERIOD...AND THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTED AT THE MOMENT
WILL FOCUS NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MOISTENING WOULD SUPPORT SOME
REGENERATION IN WESTERN ILLINOIS AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY ANY OUTFLOW FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DEWPOINT POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW PW VALUES TO NEAR 2 INCHES...MEANING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WOULD BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD. 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES STILL
SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AS WELL...WHICH IF THE STORMS
FORM INTO A LINE COULD ALSO POSE A WIND/MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS
WELL. CURRENT SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK AREAS FROM SPC HAVE CHANGED
VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPPING
INTO BETTER INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING IN NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND POINTS WEST.

THEN TONIGHT...STILL SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HOLD STRONG IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOWER 70S AND MAINTAIN SOME LEVEL OF
INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE BETTER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE
AREA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TIED TO THE COLD
FRONT...AND NUMEROUS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF THE ACTIVITY
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE COLD FRONTS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE AND ONSHORE...USHERING A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE FRONT WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MEANING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP LINGERS FOR SOUTH AND EAST AREAS AS THINGS FIRE UP AGAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINGS COULD LARGELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
THAT TIME.

KMD

.LONG TERM...
303 AM CDT

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF RESPITE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT GETS
SHIFTED BACK NORTHWARD AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEEKS END. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO THE
ATLANTIC...WITH A TROUGH JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE HIGH IN
THE EAST WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AND SHIFT INLAND TO THE WEST WHILE
THE TROUGH IN THE WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ONSHORE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN A SOMEWHAT MOIST WSW FLOW WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES PROPAGATING NE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN AND INTERSECTING
WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS PATTERN SUGGEST
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FUTURE FORECASTS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REFINE THE TIMING OF THESE CHANCES...WHICH
CURRENTLY LOOK TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY PM...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE EAST AS THE
HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA AT SOME
POINT BUT NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH READINGS
BACK INTO THE 70S...WITH LAKESHORE AREAS STUCK IN THE 60S/NEAR 70
BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD AND THE FRONT GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT CONTINUE TO RECOVER BACK WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

KMD

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER THIS EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH ANY PRECIP
ACTIVITY STAYING WELL WEST OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. PATCHY
FOG WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OBSERVING A STEADY INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE TERMINALS IS PRECIP TRENDS
AND TIMING. AM MONITORING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MINNESOTA
AND FAR WESTERN IOWA...WHICH COULD FIRST IMPACT RFD BY LATE
MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH RFD...BUT SHOULD ALSO OBSERVE A
WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES. BEST FOCUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD
FOR ALL TERMINALS WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE VARIES TO THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF ANY PRECIP AS WELL AS TIMING AND DURATION. BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS HAVE INCLUDED PRECIP IN THE TAFS WITH RFD HAVING THE BETTER
CHANCE TO OBSERVE IT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE
REMAINING TERMINALS NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER AT THIS TIME...AS SOME GUIDANCE IS BRINGING THIS PRECIP IN
EARLIER. OTHER CHALLENGES WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION LIKELY
BECOMING PROBLEMATIC.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING/TODAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION TODAY.

* LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER AND TIMING/DURATION
LATER THIS EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY...CHC MORNING TSRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS...TRENDING
TOWARDS VFR CONDS BY AFTN.

WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

BEACHLER

.MARINE...
220 PM CDT

WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING THE LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE
TAKING SHAPE IN THE HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LAKE. ON THESE WINDS WILL COME HIGHER DEW
POINT AIR. WEBCAM IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE LAKE INDICATES HAZE THAT
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE THICKER ALREADY OVER THE WATER. CONCERNS WITH
DENSE FOG WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ON MONDAY WHEN
DEW POINTS OF 10-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES
MOVE OVER THE LAKE.

THE OFFSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
LOOK TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE
AND IT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THIS SHIFT FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORE. AS FOR
THE OPEN WATERS...THE STABILITY WILL KEEP GUSTS FAR BELOW WHAT THEY
COULD BE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK /WITHIN
700 FT/ ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE ARE FORECAST TO BE
40-50 KT. WILL MENTION A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THAT WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE FROM THE AREA OF THE
NORTH BUOY TO THE U.P. SHORE.

THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS ON TUESDAY...IF A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST...COULD BRING WAVES TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG MAINLY THE INDIANA SHORE.

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...NOON MONDAY TO 10
PM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 051522
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
AS SOUTH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
LIKELIHOOD MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT.

.MARINE...SHORELINE WEB CAMS INDICATE LIGHT HAZE OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS EXTENDING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN ONSHORE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO EXPECTED SFC DEWPTS
TODAY. HENCE PULLED FOG MENTION BUT THINK AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE WILL
CONTINUE. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO AFFECT NEAR
SHORE AREA ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MBK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL
SOUTH. LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.

VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.

STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

MARINE...

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 050926
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
126 AM AKDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
THEY ARE CLUSTERED WELL IN THE FIRST 84 HOURS OF THE MODEL RUN.
SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES BEYOND THAT IN THE HANDLING OF A LOW OVER
THE BEAUFORT SEA AND WHETHER OR NOT RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THEY HANDLE THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST SIMILAR TODAY...BUT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY IS NOT GETTING THE SAME TREATMENT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME SHADOWING OUT OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NONE...SO WILL LEAN MORE ON THE WAY THE NAM IS
HANDLING IT FOR NOW.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH
A 577 DAM HIGH OVER WAINWRIGHT AND A 590 DAM HIGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL BUILD A BIT TO EXTEND WEST OVER THE MIDDLE
YUKON VALLEY TODAY AS THE 577 DAM CENTER MERGES INTO THE RIDGE.
THE RIDGE WILL SLIP A LITTLE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS 2 LOWS OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA MERGE INTO A 531 DAM LOW AND SPIN A
SHORTWAVE OVER BRISTOL BAY MONDAY EVENING...THEN FROM THE LOW TO
OVER CAPE ROMANZOF TO TALKEETNA TO NORTHWAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING...AND FROM THE LOW TO GAMBELL TO OLD CROW BY LATE
TUESDAY. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ANOTHER 3
TO 6 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS A BIT. ANOTHER SURGE IN WARM AIR WITH THE SHORTWAVE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL PUSH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ABOVE
15 DEGREES CELSIUS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LOWER YUKON DELTA
AND NORTON SOUND REGION WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 10
CELSIUS RANGE.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR FROM GALENA TO DAWSON
YUKON THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT A LITTLE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL YUKON
RIVER AND FLATS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SURGES
NORTHWEST OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON RIVER VALLEY. WEATHER FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE ALASKA
RANGE MONDAY EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO BE OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD
BACK OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME GAP
WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE THIS MORNING WILL LAY DOWN BY LATE
MORNING...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE
FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GAP WINDS TO
THE RANGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO REACH 50 MPH...AND THEY WILL
TAPER DOWN BY AROUND NOON ON TUESDAY TO GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.

SATELLITE...SPORT MICROPHYSICS MODIS AT 04/0655Z SHOWING THE
CLEARLY DEFINED CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE BERING
SEA BUTTING UP AGAINST THE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THAT PRETTY QUIET
ACROSS THE REGION WITH NO STRATUS OR FOG DETECTED NEAR ANY OF THE
COASTAL AREAS.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...VERY NICE DAY AHEAD ACROSS THE
ARCTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE NO STRATUS TO CAUSE ANY HAVOC IN THE AREA. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST DRIFTS OFF INTO CANADA
AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST...OFFSHORE IN MOST AREAS...FLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY. SOME
INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST ON TUESDAY AS A DECAYING
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY AND MONDAY IN THE 60S ON
THE COAST WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S TO MID 80S.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WARMER AND DRIER OVER THE MIDDLE
YUKON...KOBUK...AND NOATAK VALLEYS TODAY. WEATHER FRONT MOVES TO
THE SOUTHWEST COAST TONIGHT AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER
YUKON DELTA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND TO THE MIDDLE YUKON AND MOST
OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET SOME
EMBEDDED AS THERE ARE SOME NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES SHOWING UP IN
THE MIDDLE YUKON AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM AREAS. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THEN TURN TO
SOUTHWEST IN THE INTERIOR AREAS AND SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST.
COASTAL WINDS WILL KICK UP A BIT TO 10 TO 20 MPH FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH 15 TO 30 MPH WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND ON ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...VERY WARM AND DRY TODAY AND MONDAY.
NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A PRETTY GOOD CAP ALOFT AND OTHER
CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE. SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THE RANGE THIS MORNING WITH GAP WINDS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY AROUND THE THERMAL TROUGH...TO AROUND 25 MPH. MOST AREAS
WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WIND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON WHICH SIDE OF THE
THERMAL TROUGH YOU ARE ON...SO AROUND FAIRBANKS EXPECT SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY AND THE NORMAL LIGHT NORTHEAST DIURNAL WINDS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF GAP WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE ON
MONDAY NIGHT...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE STRONGER THAN 50
MPH RIGHT NOW...WILL HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT LOOK AT IT. TOUGH CALL ON
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA SINCE SOME
OF IT WILL BE SHADOWED OUT BY THE ALASKA RANGE...THEN REFORM TO
THE NORTH OF TOWN. IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE FLOW DIRECTION MORE
SOUTH...NOT MUCH FOR SHOWERS...MORE WEST THEN MUCH BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...LOW OVER THE BERING SEA IS
PERSISTENT AND RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...SO
LOOKING FOR MORE OF WHAT WE HAVE NOW...WHICH IS A FEW DAYS OF
WARM THEN A DAY OF SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE INDICES LOOK GOOD IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS OF MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT THIS IS QUITE
A WAS OUT IN THE FORECAST CYCLE TO MAKE THAT CALL.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED DRYING WITH THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF THE WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY. SOME
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 25 MPH INTO THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT FUELS REMAIN A BIT TOO WET FOR
SIGNIFICANT BURNING. THAT COULD CHANGE MONDAY...SO WILL BE TAKING
A HARD LOOK AT FUEL CONDITIONS LATER TODAY.

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE INTERIOR AFTER LAST
WEEKS RAINS WITH MOST OF THEM LEVELING BACK TO NORMAL FLOW BY
MONDAY MORNING.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

SDB JUL 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 041513
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY
MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT. MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS
THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL
POPS. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING AT SOME PATCHY
MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.

.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT WEST WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE THROUGH 18Z AND
REMAIN MOSTLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10KTS THRU THE AFTN. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...ADDING A MILKY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY. RECENT
MODIS IMAGERY CONTINUED TO MEASURE THE LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS
OVER THE WATER DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVE.

MBK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH WEAK 250 MB FLOW. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

VERY WEAK 700 MB COOLING THIS MORNING...THEN WEAK WARMING BY
TONIGHT. 700 MB DRYING BY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY NEUTRAL 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION. 850 MB DEW POINTS ARE AROUND 11 CELSIUS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE A FAIRLY MOIST LAYER AROUND 800 MB. GFS FORECAST SOUNDING HAVE
STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SURFACE TO 3 KM VALUES OF 8
CELSIUS/KM AND AROUND 9.7 FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB. HOWEVER THE
MID LEVELS ARE FAIRLY STABLE WITH 3-6KM LAPSE RATES OF 5.9
CELSIUS/KM...WITH A RATHER HIGH MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM 700 TO 600 MB.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A LARGE HIGH ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
/COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BUT THAT WEAKENS WITH
MAINLY A WEAK WEST FLOW INLAND AREAS...WITH A LAKE BREEZE PUSHING
INLAND DURING THE DAY EAST.

SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE SLOWLY TODAY. WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE RISES TO
AROUND 800 JOULES/KG. THE MESO MODELS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR AND GFS KEYING MORE ON THE
LAKE BREEZE FRONT. WILL KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

EXPECT DRY WEATHER SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS LIKELY A COUPLE TO FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ASIDE FROM THE QUICKER GFS...MODELS HAVE SLOWED A BIT WITH THE TIMING
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
SHOULD BE A GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
THE GFS INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING. SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS THOUGH...SO KEPT
HIGHER POPS GOING

SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING. MODEL 925 MB
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SO WENT WITH MID TO EVEN
UPPER 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE BEYOND THAT...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRINGING A RETURN
OF MOISTURE AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS
GOING AT TIMES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS.

SOMEWHAT OF A SPREAD IN MODEL TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH THE
ECMWF MAINTAINING COOLER TEMPS ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING MONDAY
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS OF COOL DOWN AND RECOVERS TEMPS
FASTER. STUCK NEAR CONSENSUS OF MODEL TEMPS DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...RESULTING IN FORECAST TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF NORMAL VALUES.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

PATCHY IFR FOG MAINLY IN LOW AREAS ENDING BY 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR.

LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OVER THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND WEAKEN...SO POTENTIAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STRAY
THUNDERSTORM SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES.
EXPECT ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER TO CONTINUE FROM THE CANADIAN/ALASKAN
WILDFIRES.

MARINE...

EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS BY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS
RISE SLOWLY SO FOG POTENTIAL INCREASES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 031526
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1026 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...ELONGATED AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES
FROM CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EASTERN LAKES. WATER VAPOR/RAP VORT
ANIMATION SHOWS CIRCULATION ACRS NRN/ERN IL SHIFTING EAST WITH
HIGH CLOUDS ON NRN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THE DECREASE ACRS SE
WI. EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION FROM NRN WI WITH NRN ENERGY/FRONT TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. VERY WEAK TROUGH
AND WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL NECESSITATE VRY SML POPS FOR SATURDAY.
NAM AND GFS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF CAPE THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN
MAY NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH GIVEN WEAK FLOW AROUND UPPER MIDWEST. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE 12Z GFS BACKS OFF ON THE MORE ROBUST
6Z SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY.

.MARINE...MODIS LAKE SFC TEMPERATURE IMAGER MEASURED TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND MID-LAKE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 50. LAKE TEMPERATURE REMAINED IN THE COOLER 40S FARTHER
NORTH OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHIPPEWA BASIN.
WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SFC
DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE SFC TEMPS...NOT EXPECTING
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG TO FORM THIS AFTN AND EVE. LATEST LAKESHORE
WEBCAMS SHOW SOME LIGHT HAZE WHICH SHOULD THIN AS THE WINDS START
TO STIR A BIT. HENCE EVENING FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE OBSCURED.

MBK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN IL THAT IS BRINGING THE HIGH CLOUDS TO
SRN WI WILL MOVE EAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 00Z. MOST OF THE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOME SMOKE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TNT WITH ITS
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TNT AND REACH CENTRAL WI BY 12Z SAT. PWS WILL
INCREASE TO 1 INCH LATE TNT AND THERE MAY BE SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE NRN CWA VIA CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM NRN WI.

FORECASTED 925 MB TEMPS TODAY IN THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY MID
TO LATE MORNING WITH HIGHS NEAR 70F AT THE LAKEFRONT. FOR TNT TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER THANKS TO THE WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS BUT ALSO DUE TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING SOUTH WITH A LGT WLY FLOW EXPECTED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THINK THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH. MOST OF THE LIFT SATURDAY SEEMS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WITH VERY LITTLE LARGE SCALE
LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. DEWPOINTS ARE PROBABLY A BIT TOO
HIGH ON THE GFS AND NAM...LIKELY RESULTING IN OVERDONE
INSTABILITY. MORE CONSERVATIVE MODELS STILL SHOWING SURFACE BASED
CAPE PEAKING AT AROUND 1000 J/KG...SO SOME CONVECTION IS NOT
UNREASONABLE. FORTUNATELY...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AND WILL BE DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING...SO HOPEFULLY
THIS WILL BE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON FIREWORK SHOWS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE INSTABILITY SUNDAY...BUT LESS OF A LIFTING
MECHANISM...SO KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING.

LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE TO FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND MOST PLACES...ASIDE FROM NEAR NORMAL TEMPS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2 INCHES. CAPE
VALUES NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ONLY
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE THREAT AT THIS
TIME. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SUMMER STORMS THOUGH...SO INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL MONDAY.

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND
THAT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TNT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SRN WI
TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TNT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR
FOG.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK68 PAFC 031259
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
459 AM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS POSITIONED EAST OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WITH HAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA REGION AND SPILLOVER INTO THE MATSU VALLEY REGION. THE
RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND APPROACHING THE MCGRATH AREA THIS
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION HAS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND A 70 KNOT ZONAL JET STREAK THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY
INTERIOR. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING LOW STRATUS SITTING
OFFSHORE IN THE KUSKOKWIM BAY AND STARTING TO GRADUALLY MOVE
ONSHORE. WHILE...THE ALASKA PENINSULA REGION THROUGH THE GULF HAS
A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH ANOTHER SMALL RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION AT THE SURFACE HAS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
AND THE CENTRAL GULF HAS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SPORT MODIS
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS PICKING UP THE AREAS
OF FOG OVER THE KENAI AREA AND THE MATSU VALLEY REGION. THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS NEAR ADAK HAS A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND A
SECONDARY LOW SOUTH OF THE DUTCH HARBOR REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
IS RESULTING IN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS THROUGH
THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS EXTENDING INTO THE BERING SEA. THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION WITH STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG STREAMING INTO
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
EXCEPT FOR THE ECWMF BRINGING THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW FARTHER EAST
ALONG THE CHAIN THAN THE GFS/NAM MODELS. THE PREFERRED MODEL OF
CHOICE WAS THE NAM FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION AND THE GFS
FOR THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA REGION. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THE TWO NORTH PACIFIC LOWS BEGIN TO MERGE TOGETHER OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE KODIAK
ISLAND REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUHTWEST AND THE
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA INTERIOR BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF AND
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTHERN GULF MARINE AREAS. THE TURNAGAIN ARM
AND PORTAGE/WHITTIER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE SATURDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE COASTAL MARINE AREAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND.
THE EASTERN GULF WILL HAVE THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO
DIFFERENT AREAS OF OFFSHORE STRATUS BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE
THIS MORNING. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING AREAS FOG IN
THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. BY SATURDAY A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WETTING RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
SUNDAY. THE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE ANY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION WILL HAVE ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THESE WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THESE WET
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND BECOME
SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WILL KEEP THE HUMIDITIES FAIRLY LOW BUT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE WEATHER FRONT BY SATURDAY THE HUMIDITIES WILL
RECOVER. THE MARINE COASTAL HUMIDITIES WILL SEE THE LARGEST
RECOVERIES. THE INLAND AREAS WILL HAVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES JUST
NOT AS MUCH DUE TO MOUNTAINS KEEPING MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE COAST. THE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MINOR SHORT WAVES WILL PROVIDE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE POSITIONING OF THE THERMAL TROUGH...DRAPED
ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY...COMBINED WITH
FORCING FROM UPPER SHORT WAVES AND MARGINAL STABILITY INDICES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND
MAINLY MOUNTAINS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
MORE STABLE OVERALL AS COOLER AIR AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER FRONT.

A WEATHER FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF WILL BRING RAIN TO
KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND KENAI PEN SATURDAY. MINIMUM EASTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED
WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE GULF.
BRISK GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM/PORTAGE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE COPPER RIVER AND KNIK
ARM. GAP FLOWS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY AS
THE COASTAL RIDGE BUILDS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WET AND WINDY PATTERN WILL BE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
STARTING LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ALTHOUGH
PATCHY COASTAL FOG MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST. AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS...AREAS OF SMOKE ARE EXPECTED IN THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST SMOKE IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR ACTIVE FIRES.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE BRISTOL BAY REGION IN EARNEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE RAPIDLY MOVING NORTHWARD TO THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY/DELTA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND THE KILBUCK MOUNTAINS.

AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR ADAK HAS PUSHED INTO
THE BERING SEA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NEXT FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY LATE
TONIGHT. RAIN AND WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW...RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND A RIDGE TRANSITS THE GULF AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SUPPRESSING RAIN EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF
THE SUSITNA AND AND COPPER RIVER VALLEYS WHERE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TO THE
WEST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN PULLS
A FRONT NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
STILL LACK AGREEMENT. THE ALASKA PENINSULA...KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
EASTERN KENAI WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS
FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO AGREE ON BRINGING A SWATH OF
RAIN ACROSS BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE KUSKOKWIM ON
SUNDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN TIME AS MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE USED TO
UPDATE THE WEEKEND FORECAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
BEYOND MONDAY. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL
DRY ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING FRONT LATE SUNDAY SPREADING RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AND BERING INTO MONDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
THE PATTERN TO WATCH NEXT WEEK AS IT MAY BECOME THE DOMINATING
SYSTEM THAT BRINGS A REGULAR PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 131 132 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PLD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...KH

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KGRR 021927
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER QUIET FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND FOR LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND WILL MAX OUT IN THE 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY.
THIS CHANCE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONT THAT WILL
SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BEFORE WASHING OUT.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME NEXT WEEK LATE
ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE ONLY CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING PCPN CHCS FOR
SAT AS A FRONT THAT WILL BE WASHING OUT MOVES OVERHEAD.

SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAS
DEVELOPED CUMULUS ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. THIS
CUMULUS IS MIXING OUT AS DRIER AIR ALOFT IS MIXING DOWN...AND WE
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING.

WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA.
WE WILL SEE SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...SUPPORTING
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC MOVING OVERHEAD. A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN THE DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE AS THE HEIGHTS BUILD.

THE ONLY CHC OF RAIN WILL COME ACROSS THE NRN THIRD INLAND PORTION
OF THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE BY
NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE U.P. AND TIP OF THE MITT ON SAT. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN THE AREA...BUT WILL BE WASHING
OUT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY. MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING
ISOLATED PCPN UP NORTH AS THE WEAKENING FRONT ENCOUNTERS SOME SLIGHT
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. THE SHORELINE WILL LIKELY BE STABLE ENOUGH WITH
A WIND OFF OF THE LAKE TO KEEP THEM DRY.

WE WILL DRY OUT ENTIRELY THEN SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND
AS A LONGER WAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW. THIS WILL
REINFORCE THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND REMAIN INTO THE LONG TERM.
WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT...TEMPS WILL ONLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND ONLY WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

I AM BEGINNING TO BELIEVE THIS COMING WEEK WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST WEEK OF THE SUMMER SO FAR (NOT HARD TO DO GIVEN HOW COLD IT
HAS BEEN). THERE IS STILL THE COLD FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BUT IT IS LOOKING
LIKE THAT FRONT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS I WAS THINKING EARLIER
SINCE THE REALLY COLD AIR IS DELAYED BEHIND A SECOND UPPER AIR
SYSTEM THAT LIKELY WILL NOT GET TO MICHIGAN UNTIL BEYOND THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

WE STILL HAVE OUR REX BLOCK OVER THE AREA NEAR THE BERING SEA AND A
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WAS OFF THE WEST COAST WHICH HAS MOVED INLAND
TO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. IT IS THAT SYSTEM THAT BRINGS THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY. HERE IS THE ISSUE THROUGH...THERE IS A
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT DIVES SOUTH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THAT DIGS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH... OVER MOST OF
CANADA (CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY) SOUTHWESTWARD OVER WESTERN CANADA.
THAT IN TURN INCREASED THE UPPER AIR HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA AND MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS IN
TURN WEAKENS THE FRONT...STALLING IT JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THE
REAL COLD AIR BEING TRAPPED NORTH OF THE POLAR JET...WHICH NEXT WEEK
WILL BE NEAR NORTH OF 50N. THIS WILL CHANGE LATER IN THE WEEK OR
EARLY IN FOLLOWING WEEK AS THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST...BUT UNTIL
THEN... WE WILL HAVE A MORE WESTERLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
IN TURN WE GET TO HAVE MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES.

THE BOTTOM LINE TO THIS IS THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SEEMS LOWER TO
ME EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT DRY WEATHER
(EXCEPT FOR AROUND 18 HOURS LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY). I
INCREASED THE FORECAST HIGHS TO THE MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. I AM
THINKING WE MAY SEE LOWER TO MID 80S TUE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT I
WENT CONVECTIVE YET THERE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT VFR CEILINGS WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH
A LARGELY EASTERLY WIND. TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. I DO NOT
THINK FOG SHOULD BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS THERE IS TOO MUCH MIXING
DUE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ON FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MARINE HEADLINES BEING NEEDED FOR THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS AND WAVES
REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND A DIURNAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO
BELOW 15 KNOTS...AND SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH
SUNDAY. NEXT INCREASE IN WIND LOOKS TO OCCUR ON MON AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING AT THAT TIME.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SOME UPWELLING HAS OCCURRED AT THE SHORELINE WITH
THE NNE WINDS OVER THE LAST DAY. SOME WATER TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR 40F ALONG THE SHORE PER LATEST WATER OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
SITES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE KALAMAZOO RIVER NEAR COMSTOCK AND NEW RICHMOND IS FALLING BELOW
BANKFULL THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA AND SYCAMORE CREEK
NEAR HOLT ARE THE ONLY RIVERS THAT REMAIN ABOVE BANKFULL... AND
LEVELS AT BOTH LOCATIONS ARE FALLING. ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE DAY... WEATHER WILL STAY DRY UNTIL THE
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 091439 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
939 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.UPDATE...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS SMOKE COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTING EASTWARD
LATE THIS MORNING...SO STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR
TEMPS TO WARM UP QUITE A BIT. LATEST MODELS SHOWING 925 MB TEMPS
GETTING AS HIGH AS 24 TO 27 C IN THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
JUST A DEGREE OR SO COOLER EAST. GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE...TEMPS
SHOULD EASILY REACH FORECAST HIGHS. WOULD CONSIDER TEMPS A BIT
WARMER IF NOT FOR THE SMOKE AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

OTHERWISE...A COUPLE MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW A LITTLE CONVECTION
LATE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A LITTLE
LIFT MAINLY BELOW 700 MB IN MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH AROUND 1000
J/KG OF CAPE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON...BUT NOT SOLD ON THIS
QUITE YET. ANY ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
WAVE...BUT BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST WITH
THE FRONT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY FALLING TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT IN MANY AREAS. WEBCAMS NOT
SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG SO WL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS. THIS PATCHY LIGHT FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z.

PAIR OF UPSTREAM WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL BE MOVING THRU WI TODAY.
FIRST IS IN THE VICINITY OF NW WI/MN BORDER AND WILL PASS ACROSS
SRN WI THIS MRNG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND LACKING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RH SO WL CONTINUE DRY
MRNG FORECAST. SECOND UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IN NE NODAK PASSES
ACROSS NRN WI DURING THE AFTN...WITH WEAK SOUTHWARD EXTENSION
AFFECTING SRN WI. SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING 4KM WRF FROM
SPC SHOWING SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING NRN CWA BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH ELEVATED CAPE
RAISING TO AROUND 500 J. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL MIXING TO
LOWER SFC DEWPTS INTO THE LOWER 50S WHICH WOULD REDUCE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. FOR NOW LINGER DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT
ISOLD CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CWA AFTER 06Z. A LITTLE BIT MORE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AS THIS FRONT MOVES. LAYER Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASES TO OVER 10 UNITS. MOISTURE REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE FACTOR OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE TO IMPRESSIVE LAYER
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT...WL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. MAY BE A PERIOD OF
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE
NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE SURFACE TO 850MB COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME ONGOING LIGHT SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST WI WED MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL
ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. THE WARM START TO THE
DAY AND THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 80S IN SOUTHERN WI.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER JET... WILL ROLL THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS WI ON FRIDAY. WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH THU EVENING.
DRY EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCES LIMITED.

THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ WILL FOCUS ON SOUTHERN MN
/NORTHERN IA ON THU AFTERNOON... AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
LATE THU NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR AN MCS THAT
SHOULD ROLL ACROSS WI THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UP TO AROUND 1.75 WHICH IS AROUND
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID JUNE. THIS MEANS THAT ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. AMOUNTS
SHOULD EXCEED ONE INCH.

THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT AND SHEARS IT OUT OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THAT PRECIP WILL
WIND DOWN FRI AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MODELS DIVERGE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LOCATION OF THE
850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD AND THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF
THE WI/IL BORDER WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS KEEP IT RIGHT
OVER THE BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THEY ALL BRING IT INTO NORTHERN WI
FOR SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE.

A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE COUNTRY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS SHOWING A RAINIER PATTERN THAN
THE ECWMF AT THIS TIME. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVES IS
INHERENTLY VARIABLE BETWEEN MODELS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LIGHT FOG MAY YET DEVELOP AT INLAND TAF SITES
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER PATCHY MID-CLOUDS PREVENTING TEMP FROM
SINKING TO DEWPOINT LAST FEW HOURS. OTRW...A VFR PERIOD WITH A
SMALL CHANCE FOR T AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TNGT. AN
ISOLD SHOWER OR STORM MAY POP UP THIS AFTN BUT INSTABILITY AND MID-
LEVEL RH MINIMAL SO WL NOT ADD TO TAFS FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD LLWS
REMARK TO TAFS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS
SRN WI.

MARINE...MODIS LAKE SURFACE IMAGERY FROM AROUND 17Z MONDAY SHOWED
SHALLOWER NEAR SHORE WATERS HAD WARMED INTO THE LOWER 50S. BREEZY
OFFSHORE WINDS MONDAY AFTN MAY HAVE PULLED SOME COOLER WATER TO THE
SURFACE...HOWEVER LATEST ATWATER BUOY WATER TEMPERATURE AROUND
49...WHICH IS ABOUT 2KM OFFSHORE OF ATWATER BEACH IN NRN MILWAUKEE
CO. SFC DEWPTS AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAKE TEMP IN NEARSHORE.
MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS BUT WL WAIT FOR THE
VSBL IMAGERY TO CONFIRM. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD DRY THE LOW LEVELS
SLIGHTLY SO NOT CONFIDENT ENUF AT THIS POINT TO ADD FOG TO
NEARSHORE.

THERMAL GRADIENT AND WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW LAKE
BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. HOWEVER LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO LAKESHORE AREAS DUE TO SOUTHWEST AFTN WINDS. LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO KSBM DUE TO SHORE ORIENTATION AND MAY BE ABLE
TO MAKE IT TO KMKE BUT NOT MUCH FURTHER INLAND.

BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF CDFNT
THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TNGT AND EARLY
WED. OFFSHORE GUSTS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS
BTWN 06Z AND 12Z.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 090853
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
353 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

PAIR OF UPSTREAM WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL BE MOVING THRU WI TODAY.
FIRST IS IN THE VICNITY OF NW WI/MN BORDER AND WILL PASS ACROSS SRN
WI THIS MRNG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND LACKING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RH SO WL CONTINUE DRY MRNG
FORECAST. SECOND UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IN NE NODAK PASSES ACROSS NRN
WI DURING THE AFTN...WITH WEAK SOUTHWARD EXTENSION AFFECTING SRN WI.
SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING 4KM WRF FROM SPC SHOWING SCT
CONVECTION AFFECTING NRN CWA BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH ELEVATED CAPE RAISING TO
AROUND 500 J. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL MIXING TO LOWER SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE LOWER 50S WHICH WOULD REDUCE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
FOR NOW LINGER DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT ISOLD CONVECTION
POSSIBLE.

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LIGHT FOG MAY YET DEVELOP AT INLAND TAF SITES
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER PATCHY MID-CLOUDS PREVENTING TEMP FROM
SINKING TO DEWPOINT LAST FEW HOURS. OTRW...A VFR PERIOD WITH A
SMALL CHANCE FOR T AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TNGT. AN
ISOLD SHOWER OR STORM MAY POP UP THIS AFTN BUT INSTABILITY AND MID-
LEVEL RH MINIMAL SO WL NOT ADD TO TAFS FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD LLWS
REMARK TO TAFS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS
SRN WI.

.MARINE...MODIS LAKE SURFACE IMAGERY FROM AROUND 17Z MONDAY SHOWED
SHALLOWER NEAR SHORE WATERS HAD WARMED INTO THE LOWER 50S. BREEZY
OFFSHORE WINDS MONDAY AFTN MAY HAVE PULLED SOME COOLER WATER TO THE
SURFACE...HOWEVER LATEST ATWATER BUOY WATER TEMPERATURE AROUND
49...WHICH IS ABOUT 2KM OFFSHORE OF ATWATER BEACH IN NRN MILWAUKEE
CO. SFC DEWPTS AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAKE TEMP IN NEARSHORE.
MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS BUT WL WAIT FOR THE
VSBL IMAGERY TO CONFIRM. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD DRY THE LOW LEVELS
SLIGHTLY SO NOT CONFIDENT ENUF AT THIS POINT TO ADD FOG TO
NEARSHORE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 311459 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
959 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...

A FEW CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. FORECAST HIGHS LOOK TO
BE ON TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MAY SEE MVFR CIGS BRUSH FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

.MARINE...

BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO LINGERING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST...PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH AND RESULTANT WAVES TO SUBSIDE LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MODIS IMAGERY FROM AROUND 09Z THIS MORNING
SHOWED MID-LAKE SFC TEMPS HOLDING AROUND 40F.

.BEACHES...

HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECTED
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES
CREATING DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG PIERS AND BREAKWALLS. DRIVING
FORCE BEHIND DANGEROUS SWIM CONDITIONS IS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...UP
TO 30 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. ONSHORE FLOW TO
CONTINUE ON MONDAY...BUT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE STRONG JET ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WAS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK 500/250 MB TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
TONIGHT. NOT MUCH REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH EVEN AT 700 MB AS 700
MB RH ID DRY. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS. 850 MB RH
IS ALSO DRY. THERE IS SOME HIGHER RH AT 925 MB THIS MORNING IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST THAT DRYS MID TO LATE MORNING.

WITH SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE...BUT AN INVERSION AROUND
5 THSD FT WILL LIMIT THE MIXING. EVEN SO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
LOWER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND STAY RATHER LOW EAST. EVEN
WITH THE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MIXING...IT IS ENOUGH TO BRING GUSTS TO
20 TO 25 MPH WEST AREAS AND 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EAST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEY HAVE A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS INDICATE HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WELL INLAND ON MONDAY...AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S
TUESDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH MAIN FEATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THEY SHIFT THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST DURING THIS TIME. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGHS WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND RESULT IN
QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY.

KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES MAINLY THURSDAY...AS
500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHES THE AREA. HOWEVER...GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MEAGER WITH DEEP MOISTURE...SO COULD SEE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY END UP DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM DURING THIS TIME...WITH COOLER READINGS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

MODELS SHOWING SOME MORE DIFFERENCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
THEY DO BRING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTHWEST
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND HAS LESS QPF THAN THE GFS.

CONTINUED WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
PERIOD. DRY EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO REDUCE CHANCES FOR QPF FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS. GFS
ALSO SHOWING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE ECMWF WEST OF
THAT AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...COOLER
NEAR THE LAKE WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND KENOSHA INTO MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR. AN INVERSION AROUND 5 THSD FT WILL LIMIT THE AFTERNOON
MIXING. EVEN WITH THE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MIXING...IT IS ENOUGH TO
BRING GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WEST AREAS AND 20 TO 25 KNOT GUSTS
EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

WILL HAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SUNDAY AREAS
NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND TIL 9 PM FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. FEW WIND
GUSTS STILL REACHING GALE CRITERIA SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE BUT THESE
SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE SHORTLY. THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS DUE TO
LOW PRESSURE NEAR INDIANAPOLIS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.

BEACHES...

WILL EXTEND THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK UNTIL
6 PM THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AREAS...AND 9 PM THIS EVENING SOUTH
AREAS. WAVES NOT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET UNTIL THEN.
DANGEROUS...LIFE THREATENING SWIM CONDITIONS WILL THUS CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...LAKE MICHIGAN
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...CREATING A
HYPOTHERMIA RISK.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ066-
071-072.

BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643-644.

UPDATE...DDV/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 062141
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
141 PM AKDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 72 HOURS. UNLIKE WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE COOLED A BIT A H850 FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE INTERIOR BY A FEW DEGREES CELSIUS. BESIDE FOR THAT CHANGE
AMONG THE MODELS...GOOD CONTINUITY BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE.

ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH LATE FRIDAY BEFORE BEING PUSHED EAST AND OVER
CANADA THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW LOCATED 500 MILES SOUTH OF
UNALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA. FROM THIS
UPPER LOW...A SHORTWAVE WILL BE EJECTED NORTHWARD FROM THIS
EASTWARD MOVING LOW...MOVING OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
REACHING THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TREK...IT WILL SPLIT
INTO TWO CENTERS...ONE OVER BRISTOL BAY AND ANOTHER ROUGHLY 800
MILES SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE LOW SOUTH OF
KODIAK WILL ROTATE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN...AND APPROACH THE THE
GULF OF ALASKA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A LOW OVER SIBERIA
AND GRAZE THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER ON SATURDAY.

SURFACE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...STRETCHING
FROM THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY TO OVER FAIRBANKS...AND EAST TO EAGLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK 1003 MB SURFACE LOW OVER
THE YUKON DELTA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FORCING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A SURFACE HIGH STRETCHING
FROM EASTERN SIBERIA TO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WILL BE SPLIT BY
A SOUTHWARD MOVING LOW TONIGHT.

WESTERN ALASKA...MORNING IMAGES FROM THE MODIS SPORT MICROPHYSICS
RGB PRODUCT SHOW WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG FROM THE SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND VICINITY AND BERING STRAIT NORTH INTO THE CHUKCHI
SEA AND KOTZEBUE SOUND VICINITY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA HAVE REPORTED VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE
AT TIMES THIS MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED AROUND
KOTZEBUE SOUND. THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG WILL PERSIST. BOTH
THE BETHEL AND NOME RADARS HAVE PICKED UP ON SOME SHOWERS LATE
THIS MORNING. AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...THEN NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AS THE
MOISTURE IS FORCED NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS. SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN
TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER ZONES 216 AND 227 FOR THURSDAY
EVENING AND FRIDAY...BUT ITS NOT LIKELY GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND
CLOUD COVER.

NORTH SLOPE...IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST BEGINNING TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...CLEARING
SKIES AND FOG DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS STRATUS AND FOG WILL RETURN IN TIME FOR THE
WEEKEND. STRATUS AND FOG WILL LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AS A
SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...ANOTHER COUPLE OF BEAUTIFUL DAYS
ARE ON TAP AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S AND 60S OVER THE
AREA. WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE
AND A SOUTHERLY CHINOOK DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
THIS COMBINED WITH ALREADY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ADD TO THE CONCERN
FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF
FAIRBANKS THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD NORTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH TOWARDS THE
ARCTIC COAST.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A THERMAL TROUGH WILL FORM JUST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY
THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THU. THIS WILL ALSO CREATE GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN ZONES 223 225 AND 226.

SOUTHERLY CHINOOK WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL CAUSE THE WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THOSE SAME AREAS.

.HYDROLOGY...
A QUIET BREAK UP CONTINUES. OPEN LEADS AND SHIFTING ICE NEAR
NATION RIVER ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT OPEN WATER NEAR CIRCLE
REPORTED FROM THE RIVER WATCH FLIGHT OVER THE UPPER YUKON LATE
THIS MORNING. REPORTS FROM OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS ALONG THE TANANA
AND YUKON RIVERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT WATER LEVELS ARE BELOW
NORMAL.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.
&&

DISCUSSION/HYDRO...LTH
FIRE WEATHER...JB/LTH

MAY 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 051127
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
327 AM AKDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT TERM. INITIALIZED
WELL AGAIN TODAY AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH MAJOR
FEATURES WITHIN A COUPLE MB. A LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HANDLING OF
THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT MORE VIGOROUS THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED. SO WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
DATABASE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION FROM
FAIRBANKS NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ALOFT...SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THE RIDGE WILL
ROTATE BACK OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH 551 DAM CENTER OVER
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND MOVING OVER LAKE MINCHUMINA AS THE CENTER
MERGES WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. A 515 DAM LOW IN THE HIGH RUSSIAN ARCTIC WILL ROTATE
EAST TO NORTH OF BARROW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
518 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO 400
NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE NORTH OVER
KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE
RIDGE EAST OVER CANADA BY SUNDAY EVENING.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND WILL
ENTRENCH ITSELF NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY. A VIGOROUS LITTLE
1020 MB LOW NORTH BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST DRAGGING A FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE TODAY. RIDGING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND WILL HELP IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF GAP WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE.
DOWNSLOPE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. A 1030 MB
HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO BY THURSDAY EVENING. A 990 MB LOW SOUTH OF
ADAK WILL MOVE TO 500 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVE NORTH TO KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING. A
1008 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
MOVES TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRATUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE AREA. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AS WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...BUT EXPECT THE STRATUS TO REMAIN AND AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH
ON THE MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCTS...BUT THE GOES MVFR
PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 05/0715Z CLEARLY INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF
STRATUS OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
TRANSITION FROM NORTH TO EAST AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVE EAST INTO
CANADIAN WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
20 MPH...BUT MAY BE UP TO 30 MPH EAST OF DEADHORSE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...REMAINS QUIET TODAY...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS
SOME MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT A BETTER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATER IN
THE WEEK AS A STRONGER LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE COASTAL
AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 MPH NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS IN ZONE 227. WITH THAT EXCEPTION WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION FROM FAIRBANKS NORTHEAST TODAY AS
A VIGOROUS LITTLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHORTWAVE BRINGS GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS WITH IT. STILL
PRETTY DRY AT THE SURFACE SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TAPPING INTO
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THUNDERSTORMS...IF
THEY OCCUR WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. WITH IT BEING DRY AT THE
SURFACE NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION AT THE
SURFACE. TEMPERATURES TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE THERMAL
TROUGH SETS UP...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TODAY.
STRONGER WINDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEAR THE
ALASKA RANGE AS THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE STRENGTHENS.
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE RANGE WITH THE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SO VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN ZONES 223 225 AND 226.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 TO 8...PER NORMAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW
MUCH CONSENSUS. RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO CANADA AND A LOW DEVELOPS
AND MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SPREADING RAIN
FROM FAIRBANKS NORTH. MODELS NOW MAKING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A
LITTLE COOLER OVER THE INTERIOR. MODELS ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST
SUNDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH STRENGTHENING OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST AREAS NEAR THE ALASKA
RANGE YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH
WINDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY ISSUE RED FLAG
WARNINGS SOMETIME TODAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY NORTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE VERY LEAST HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
VIRGA WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TO BE POOR TO FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...REPORTED THAT THE ICE MOVED AT EAGLE TODAY BUT
STOPPED NEAR THE OLD VILLAGE OF EAGLE. VIIRS APRFC RIVER ICE
AREAL EXTENT PRODUCT AT 04/2117Z INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THE
YUKON RIVER REMAINS MIXED ICE AND WATER DOWN TO AT LEAST TANANA.
REPORTS FROM OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS INDICATE THAT WATER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. RIVER WATCH
MISSION TODAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE UPPER YUKON BETWEEN THE FORT
YUKON AND EAGLE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

SDB MAY 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 042255
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
255 PM AKDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS BY
MID WEEK...THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS/FOG ISSUES ON THE NORTH SLOPE...WARMING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR...AS WELL AS HIT AND MISS
FOG/STRATUS ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA COAST.

MODELS...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC
MODELS THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS...THEREAFTER THE TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MID/LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS BECOME APPARENT.
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...NUDGED A BLEND OF THE MODELS AGAINST
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ALOFT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND FILL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA THIS MORNING WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TOMORROW...SQUASHING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH AND EAST OF ITS CURRENT
POSITION. AS THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA...REMAINING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CLIP THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA
COAST WEDNESDAY.

REGARDING H850 TEMPERATURES...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER MAINLAND ALASKA...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT MUCH WARMER H850 TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
MAINLAND ALASKA. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BOTH THE 12Z
GFS/ECWMF ARE FORECASTING +7C TO +9C H850 TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE...THE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNDEFINED AS IT
REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH. A
SURFACE HIGH STRETCHES FROM THE NEW SIBERIAN ISLANDS EAST TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND WILL NOSE NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE ALASKA RANGE BY LATE TUESDAY. THE 986 LOW 250 NM SOUTH
OF ATKA SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WEAKEN THROUGH
THURSDAY.

WESTERN ALASKA...FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE WEST COAST. PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS IS STILL FLOATING OUT IN THE BERING STRAIT AND BERING SEA
PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING
STRAIT COAST AND THE MODIS/SPORT 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS RGB
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
LOWER YUKON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVERHEAD.

NORTH SLOPE...FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY ON THE NORTH
SLOPE. AS WAS PREVIOUSLY STATED IN THE MORNING
DISCUSSION...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE NORTH SLOPE SINCE THERE ARE NO STRONG FEATURES TO FORCE THE
DEPARTURE OF THE FOG/STRATUS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
CLIP THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST WEDNESDAY AND
WILL GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE NORTH.

EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE INTERIOR. THE POSSIBILITY
FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW OR EVEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WILL BE VERY LOW...AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN
LACKLUSTER. AS THE RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SETUP WARMING THE INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND WILL BE NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS
HELP ENHANCE GAP FLOW THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE. LOOKING AT
INDIVIDUAL CROSS SECTIONS FOR BROAD PASS...ISABEL PASS AND
MENTASTA PASS...USING THE 12Z NAM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE PASSES WEDNESDAY MORNING...TO 20 TO 30 KTS
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING...SUBSIDING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Q VECTOR ANALYSIS SHOWS VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ARRIVE IN THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY. DIVERGENCE IS SEEN ALOFT
WHICH ADDS CREDENCE TO THE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES. MANY
INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXCEPT FOR
MOISTURE. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO
BE LIFTED WHICH IS INDICATED BY THE THETA E ANALYSIS. ADDITIONALLY
THE CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

ON WED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND CONTINUED
DRYING WILL BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE WHICH WILL ENHANCE GAP
FLOW WINDS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY OVER
MANY AREAS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LATEST RIVER REPORT FROM EAGLE THIS MORNING...REPORTS THAT
THE ICE STARTED TO MOVE OVERNIGHT AND STOPPED ONE MILE UPSTREAM OF
EAGLE. RIVER WATCH MISSION IS STILL ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE UPPER YUKON...SO NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES YET. OTHERWISE...BREAK
UP REMAINS TO BE QUIET SO FAR THIS SEASON.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

DISCUSSION/HYDROLOGY...LTH FIRE WEATHER...CF

MAY 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KMTR 031555
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
855 AM PDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL MIX OUT THE MARINE
LAYER...BUT ALSO MAINTAIN RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF OUR AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:41 AM PDT SUNDAY...DEEP MARINE LAYER THIS
MORNING IS SLIGHTLY OVER 2000 FEET AT FORD ORD. LAST NIGHTS MODIS
AND EARLY MORNING GOES IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD THICKNESS AROUND 1000
FEET...DEEPER SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA AND SHALLOWER NORTH BAY.
IMPLICATION IS FOR EARLIER DISSIPATION NORTH BAY AND INLAND...BUT
STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS IN THE STRATUS
MUCH OF THE DAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MORNING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S CLIMBING TO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST TO 70S
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH EXTENSIVE PUSH OF
STRATUS INLAND NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. LATEST NAM STRENGTHENS ONSHORE
GRADIENT TO 3.7 MB SFO TO SAC MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL...THEN MARINE
LAYER MIXING INCREASES TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFING
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE COOLING TREND
THAT BEGAN ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE
OF TODAY'S COOLING IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WHAT OCCURRED
DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CA COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. BOTH THE NAM
AND WRF MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EVEN GREATER INLAND
SURGE OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TONIGHT...AS WELL AS CONTINUED COOL
CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY.

AFTER THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ON MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST...RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO CLEAR OUT
MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDINESS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS BRING
ABOUT SLIGHT WARMING ON TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAC NW BY MIDWEEK.
THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE REASONABLY WELL IN DROPPING THAT LOW DUE
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN EJECTING THAT LOW
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS ALSO FORECAST SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
PROJECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES INLAND OVER
THE CENTRAL COAST.

THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS COOLING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND IN ALL AREAS
BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW NORMAL IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AND REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST BY LATE
FRIDAY...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DRY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND. BUT THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN...WITH ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
PROJECTED TO APPROACH CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:36 AM PDT SUNDAY...AS NOTED ABOVE DEEP MARINE
LAYER IN PLACE WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW POCKETS OF IFR
CONDITIONS. KSJC AND KLVK ARE ON THE EDGE AND LATEST TRENDS
SUGGEST STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE CLEARING
WILL BE MID MORNING FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT. CONF IS MEDIUM-HIGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS WITH CLEARING 17-18Z. BRIEF PERIOD OF
NE WINDS POSSIBLE. STRONGER WEST PUSH OF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

.BEACHES...AS OF 4:36 AM PDT SUNDAY...NO REAL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A SERIES OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL COAST TODAY. PT CONCEPTION BUOY IS ALREADY SHOWING 3.5 FT
AT 25 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
LONG PERIOD WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL...4 TO 6 FEET...THE
POWERFUL NATURE OF LONG PERIOD WAVES WILL RESULT IN EXCEPTIONALLY
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERLY FACING
BEACHES SUCH AS STINSON BEACH IN MARIN COUNTY AND THE BEACHES
ALONG THE MONTEREY BAY COAST OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.
ADDITIONALLY...THESE LONG PERIOD WAVES WILL ALSO RESULT IN LARGE
SHORE BREAK AT TWIN LAKES STATE BEACH AND THE SANTA CRUZ BOARDWALK
BEACH. LARGE SHORE BREAK CAN RESULT IN NECK AND BACK INJURIES. IF
YOU PLAN ON ENTERING THE WATER PLEASE DO SO NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND
ALWAYS KEEP AN EYE ON THE OCEAN WHEN VISITING THE BEACH.

.MARINE...AS OF 04:31 AM PDT SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ELSEWHERE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 030932
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
132 AM AKDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 60 OURS. INITIALIZED
WELL AT 06Z. WILL JUST USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE
CURRENT DATABASE.

ALOFT...552 DAM HIGH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST TO
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND WEAKEN TO 552 DAM...THEN BE ABSORBED
BY A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A 542 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
EAST OVER THE BROOKS RANGE. A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
WILL SPIT WITH A 553 CENTER MOVING OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY
MONDAY MORNING...THEN SLIDES WEST. A 531 DAM LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO CANADA. A 520 DAM LOW OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO BE 400 NM SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS
TUESDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE COASTAL AREAS.

SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL DRIFT NORTH. A
1002 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST INTO CANADA.
A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA DRIVEN
BY WHERE THE THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT STRENGTHENS OVER THE INTERIOR
TUESDAY. A 983 MB LOW NEAR ADAK WILL BE QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CHASING STRATUS WILL BE THE
THEME...BUT WILL ONLY HAVE TO CHASE THE CHANGING HEIGHT...BECAUSE
IT IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNINGS
EAST OF BARROW WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE DEALT WITH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES TO THE EAST OF BARROW BY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY KICK OFF A
FEW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
MPH. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST TO THE WEST OF
PRUDHOE BAY AND SOUTHEAST TO EAST TO THE EAST OF PRUDHOE BAY.
MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT SHOWS A BAND OF STRATUS AND
FOG THAT HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...AS WELL AS
SOME STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON
DELTA WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND IS
ABSORBED BY SHORTWAVE OVER BROOKS RANGE MONDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY
OVER THE LOWER YUKON AND KUSKOKWIM DELTAS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. A RAPIDLY MOVING LOW IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER YUKON DELTA
INTO THE BERING STRAIT ON THURSDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE EXPECTED.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...DEVELOPMENT OF THE THERMAL TROUGH
AS WE GET INTO THE WEEK WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR WEATHER IN THE
INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AFTER ONE LAST DRY DAY
AND THIS WILL HELP INJECT MOISTURE INTO THE INTERIOR CREATING A
BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT EAST WINDS IN THE INTERIOR...HOWEVER
EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE THERMAL TROUGH
SETS UP.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 TO 8...RIDGING FROM CANADA WILL BE
PUSHED BACK TO THE EAST AND LINGER OVER THE ALCAN BORDER AREA. A
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND
NORTHWEST ARCTIC. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL PERSIST
IN SOME FORM.

.FIRE WEATHER...THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS A LITTLE TODAY AND
WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE RISE AS WELL AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INCREASES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STILL NOT UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR ANY TYPE OF CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED BY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
EXPECTED. FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY TONIGHT THEN GOOD RECOVERY THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...SLOW BREAKUP CONTINUES...BUT THAT CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY.
OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS CONTINUE TO WATCH THE YUKON RIVER AND WILL
BE FLYING RIVER WATCH MISSIONS OVER THE UPPER YUKON AROUND EAGLE
AGAIN TODAY.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

SDB MAY 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 021049
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
249 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH 2/00Z MODEL SUITE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z ECWMF AND
GFS IN THE EXTENDED...BUT THE ECWMF HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH THE 2/00Z MODEL RUN.

ALOFT...WEAK FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS ALASKA. WEAK UPPER LOW
NEAR ICY CAPE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW 225 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE WEST AND OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND WESTERN
ALASKA COAST TODAY AND SUNDAY. OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR...A
THERMAL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY...ACROSS THE
ALASKA RANGE...TO NEAR CHICKEN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL
SHIFT SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTER DEVELOPS OVER
THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY SUNDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PERSISTS NORTH OF THE ARCTIC
COAST...STRATUS...FOG...AND SOME FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTH SLOPE THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WESTERN ALASKA...MODIS SPORT NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB SATELLITE
IMAGES FROM THIS MORNING SHOW AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA...KOTZEBUE SOUND AND IN THE BERING STRAIT. DENSE FOG
HAS MANIFESTED IN KOTZEBUE SOUND...ALONG THE NORTHERN SEWARD
PENINSULA COAST THIS MORNING AND ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST.
EXPECTING THIS FOG TO THIN THIS MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED
YESTERDAY MORNING. OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEYS...MAY SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...NOT MUCH GOING ON OVER THE
AREA. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY. FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...A COUPLE OF BEAUTIFUL AND WARM SPRING DAYS ARE FORECAST.

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL REMAIN NEAR 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY WHERE MIN RH
WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 22 PERCENT. DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

LTH MAY 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 261536 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1036 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE
REGION...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY LOOK TO AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE LAKE WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER NORTH WINDS INLAND.

TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WELL
INLAND...WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKE. GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH ONSHORE WINDS BRINGING
COOLER VALUES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN EACH DAY.

WOOD

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT THE EASTERN
SITES...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER NORTH WINDS AT MADISON.

LIGHT NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ON MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

WOOD

.MARINE...

MODIS IMAGERY FROM FRIDAY REVEALED LAKE MI SFC TEMP AROUND 41
DEGREES. WEAK SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MI THIS AFTN AND EVE. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS SHOW LOW LEVEL INVERSION
PERSISTING. THIS SHOULD PREVENT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS
FROM REACHING LAKE SURFACE.

HOWEVER...A FEW GUSTS MAY PUNCH THROUGH THIS INVERSION. WL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING SMALL CRAFT ADVY AT THIS POINT...DUE TO INFREQUENT
GUSTS EXPECTED. WL ADD EXERCISE CAUTION REMARK TO NSH FOR THIS
AFTN AND EVE.

MBK

.FIRE WEATHER...

VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. NORTH WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 8 TO 11 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 18 MPH IN
THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

THE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PERSIST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EACH DAY...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

WOOD

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CANADA EXTENDS BACK INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH DROPS SOUTH A LITTLE AND BUILDS
BACK INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE OR 700 MB UPWARD MOTION. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN 700
MB RH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST THAT REACHES THE LAKE MICHIGAN
COUNTIES. 850 MB RH ALSO INCREASES...BUT MAINLY LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER IT IS NOT SATURATED...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE INCREASE IN 700 MB WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...
AND THE 850 MB WINDS MAINLY TONIGHT. WHILE THE 700 MB WIND INCREASE
OCCURS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THE 850 MB WIND INCREASE IS MAINLY
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH SURFACE HEATING WIND GUSTS...WHILE NOT
STRONG...WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SUGGESTS.

WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME COOLING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES WELL
INLAND.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY AIR AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NOSE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS WEEK AS A SPRAWLING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING A PLEASANT
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WI. THERE WILL BE A STEADY BREEZE OUT
OF THE NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD... BUT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WE CAN EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. INLAND
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR THIS PERIOD WHILE LAKESHORE TEMPS WILL
BE STUCK IN THE 50S.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI TUE AFTERNOON/
EVENING. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR
TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING AT LEAST A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK... WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SPRINKLES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDER IS DEBATABLE. THERE MAY
BE SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER. LEFT
IT OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THERE IS MORE CERTAINTY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE ON SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
PATTERNS LATER NEXT WEEKEND... BUT BOTH RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THE ECMWF DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AWAY FROM THE MORE STABLE EFFECTS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. SOME CLOUDS IN THE 5 TO 8 THSD FT RANGE MAY AFFECT THE
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE
TO MAINLY SCATTERED.

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH MIXING BUT WITHOUT THE
GUSTS LIKE SATURDAY.

MARINE...

WINDS ARE EASING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING. A SURGE IN STRONGER NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD PUSH WINDS AND WAVES BACK TOWARDS SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

FIRE WEATHER...

MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PCT WELL INLAND AND ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAYBE DOWN TOWARDS 20 PCT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WOOD/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 252022
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH 700 MB DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS
RESPONSE. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THE AREA FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SUNSHINE
IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AS DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...KEEPING THE DRIER FLOW OF AIR INTO THE
REGION. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WELL INLAND. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP COOLER 40S
NEAR THE LAKE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

WEAK PUSH OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BRING SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN CLOUDS TO ERN CWA SUN NGT AS
LOBE OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATES AROUND ERN CONUS UPPER LOW. ANY
PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE TO REMAIN TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER GTLAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS
BEGINS TO SHRINK AND SPIN OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. LIGHTER
WINDS AND NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WL RESULT IN WINDS
REMAINING MOSTLY ONSHORE DURING THE DAYTIME NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
MODIS IMAGERY FROM FRIDAY REVEALED LAKE SEA SURFACE TEMP IN THE LOW
40S. LAKESHORE AREAS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
ON MONDAY BUT GET A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY DUE TO LIGHTER SFC
WINDS...BEGINNING THE DAY NORTHWEST BEFORE VEERING ONSHORE. SUNSHINE
AND WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW INLAND LOCATIONS TO REACH THE
60S BOTH DAYS...PERHAPS NEARING 70 IN THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

KEEPING AN EYE ON APPROACHING WEAK TROF IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS
TROF WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST WI ON TUESDAY AND SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO SRN WI LATER IN THE DAY FROM THIS FEATURE.
QUESTIONABLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING SO WL CONTINUE DRY
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF SHOW CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN CARRYING
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS WI TUE AND WED. ALL MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME FORM OF NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS WI DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE GFS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS
FEATURE AND GEM KEEPS UPPER CIRCULATION SLIDING SOUTH INTO IA...ONLY
ECMWF SHOWS THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAKE MI AREA TUE NGT
INTO WED. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS SCENARIO AS ECMWF ALSO SHOWS
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE KICKER ALREADY MOVING ACROSS SRN CAN NORTH OF
THE PLAINS ON WED. ALSO...GEM...GFS AND DGEX SHOWING MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WEAKER SITUATION. WL PROBABLY KEEP VERY SMALL CHANCES
FOR -SHRA IN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR TUE NGT/WED TO ACKNOWLEDGE WEAK
TROF PASSAGE. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BOTTLE UP DEEPER MOISTURE
WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CONUS.

THIS WEAK TROF DOES EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO
RESULT IN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROF OVER ERN CONUS ON THU AND FRI.
HOWEVER DESCREPANCY REMAINS AS SLOW GFS SHOWS DEEPENING UPPER LOW
OVER ERN GTLAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE ECMWF
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND TAKES SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW INTO WRN ATLANTIC BY
FRI. THESE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS HAVE A DIRECT AFFECT ON EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. MORE
AMPLIFIED GFS SOLUTION KEEPS DEEPER RIDGING AND COLDER NORTHWEST
FLOW LINGERING LONGER ACROSS WRN GTLAKES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MORE
PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SHOWS UPSTREAM RIDGING BREAKING DOWN FASTER...WITH
MILDER MORE ZONAL FLOW SETTLING INTO WI ON SAT...WHILE GFS REMAINS
COOLER. DGEX AND WPC LEANING TOWARD MODEL BLEND. EITHER
WAY...WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY RETURN THUNDER
TO THE AREA AROUND MONDAY...MAY 4TH. CPC 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOK HAS GREATER LIKLIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SPREADING INTO
WI FOR THE PERIOD MAY 2-8.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF KENOSHA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNSET...WITH VFR
CATEGORY CEILINGS.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 1500
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL MAY LINGER AROUND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE FROM THE SURFACE TO REQUIRE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION IN TAFS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
AT THE EASTERN SITES AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.MARINE...

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME MIXING NEAR THE SHORELINE RESULTING
IN NORTHEAST GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AT MARINE OBSERVATION
SITES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND MIXING SUBSIDES.

THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET FOR MOST
OF TONIGHT. WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT...PERHAPS A COUPLE
HOURS EARLIER THAN THE 12Z EXPIRATION TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE NEED FOR AN EARLIER ENDING
TIME.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LMZ643>646 UNTIL 12Z/26.

$$
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 251551 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1051 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...

MESOSCALE MODELS AND UPDATED SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH...AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE...REMAINS IN
THIS AREA.

SEEING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SO
WILL ADJUST POPS FOR THOSE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL LEAVE IN
GENERALLY LOWER END POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO MIDDLE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRENDING DRY TOWARD SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY
SEEING SOME BREAKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 40S LAKESIDE...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST...WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY
OCCUR LATER TODAY. MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGHS SOME MORE IN THE SOUTH
WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER.

WOOD

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MAY SEE LIGHT SHOWERS AT KENOSHA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LOWER CHANCES AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. GUSTY EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS WITH SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CATEGORY
CEILINGS.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 1500 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL MAY LINGER AROUND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE FROM THE SURFACE TO REQUIRE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION IN TAFS.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

WOOD

.MARINE...

SEVERAL VESSELS PARKED IN MILWAUKEE AND RACINE HARBORS REPORTING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 18 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE ENE THIS MORNING.
FURTHER TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TODAY AS
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM MISSOURI E-SE TOWARD TN VALLEY REGION.

HOWEVER...BOTH RAP AND 12Z NAM12 SHOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING ALONG LAKE MI WEST COAST THIS AFTN WHICH COULD PARTIALLY
BE A RESULT OF COLD LAKE MI TEMPS. RETURN OF MODIS IMAGERY
MEASURED LAKE MI SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S ON FRI.

WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY WITH SRN ZONES LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 22KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT N TO NE FETCH WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET OVER ALL OF THE NEARSHORE. MAY BE ABLE TO
TRIM BACK END TIME OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY WITH NEW AFTN FORECAST AS
WINDS AND WAVES LIKELY TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT.

MBK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS...
REACHING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY EVENING. AS IT DOES THE UPPER
JET IS SUPPRESSED SOUTH...WHILE THE MAIN JET MAX MOVES OFF TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH AS 500 MB
PUSHES MAINLY EAST BEFORE THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND SOUTHEAST CANADA
TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHEAST.
MOST OF THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
ILLINOIS BORDER TODAY.

THE 700 MB RH IS SATURATED ALONG THE SOUTH TIER OF COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...THEN DRIES FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. THE 850 MB RH DRIES THIS MORNING NORTH AREAS...THEN ACROSS
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB LOW WEAKENS AND ELONGATES AS IT
MOVES EAST...THEN SAGGING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST 850 MB
WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THEY TURN
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THIS
MORNING...BUT REMAIN MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND KENTUCKY REGION
TODAY MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN. THE NAM...HRRR AND
THE ARW HIGH RES MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY SOUTH OF
WISCONSIN...ALTHOUGH THE ARW NMN DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND A BIT MORE NORTH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE MODELS...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF A
BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM. WILL BE CUTTING BACK ON POP
VALUES...ESPECIALLY NORTH HALF TODAY.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY AIR AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NOSE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SPRAWLING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING A PLEASANT
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WI. THERE WILL BE A STEADY BREEZE OUT
OF THE NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD... BUT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WE CAN EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. INLAND
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD WHILE LAKESHORE
TEMPS WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI TUE AFTERNOON/
EVENING. THE ECMWF ALLOWS THIS SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON THE HEELS OF AN EXITING UPPER LOW. THE GFS
IS MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT/WED WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SHOWING LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN WI. THUS... KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE ECWMF IS SHOWING A MORE ZONAL UPPER JET ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THU NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING A LARGER RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THE GFS IS QUICKEST TO DRAW
VERY WARM AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS DELAYED
WITH THE WARMING SINCE IT IS SHOWING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. IF
THE GFS PANS OUT... MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND KENTUCKY REGION
TODAY MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN.

MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH
TOWARDS THE ILLINOIS BORDER...AND ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. CIGS WILL
RISE AND CLOUDS CLEAR FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.

MARINE...

EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. RESULTING PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BRING WAVES
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...WOOD/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ SUNDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 202129
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
129 PM AKDT MON APR 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE SHORT TERM AT TO AROUND 60 HOURS.
START SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS BEYOND 90 HOURS.
WILL LEAN ON A BLEND OF THE GFS...NAM...AND SREF FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...503 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL
MOVE NORTH OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE ALASKA
RANGE THIS EVENING...AND OVER THE BROOKS RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING
AS A 524 DAM LOW DEVELOPS...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN NORTH OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN OVER THE BROOKS RANGE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 519 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND TUESDAY EVENING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH THURSDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE
AROUND THE LOW OVER THE WEST COAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN
PROVINCES.

SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE STATE
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COMPLEX LOW SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL CENTERS
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
BEING ABSORBED BY A 974 MB LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING
SEA TUESDAY EVENING. A 1003 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE
TO 200NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT AT 985 MB...THEN
CONTINUE EAST TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
A 998 MB LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO BE OVER BARTER ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING AT
997 MB. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
PUSH NORTH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING AND OVER
THE EASTERN ARCTIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A 1017 MB HIGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER
YUKON WILL MAKE THINGS INTERESTING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON THE
EASTERN COAST. AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH OVER BARTER ISLAND BY
TUESDAY MORNING WINDS FROM BARROW EAST WILL SNAP AROUND TO
NORTHWEST FOR A TIME THEN SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH IN TO THE ARCTIC. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER
DEADHORSE AND KUPARUK AREAS WITH A COUPLE INCHES AS THE LOW MOVES
JUST EAST OF THERE. THE BROOKS RANGE WILL SEE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW
THAT COULD PILE UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT COOL OFF
EXPECTED. GOES MVFR PROBABILITY AT 20/1730Z CORRELATES WELL WITH
THE SPORT MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS AT 20/1529Z. BAND OF STRATUS
OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST NOT MOVING MUCH AND NOT EXPECTING IT TO.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WITH THE LOW COMPLEX REMAINING
OVER THE AREA...EXPECT BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS...BUT TIMING THEM WILL BE DIFFICULT. BROAD AREA OF
MVFR ON THE GOES PROBABILITY AT 20/1730Z CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON THE
SPORT MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS AT 20/1529Z. WITH THE LOW SYSTEM
QUASI STATIONARY...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
COASTAL AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE SOME CLEARING TODAY AS
SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES NORTH OVER THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY
OFFSHORE AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON THE COAST...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER YUKON
DELTA WINDS SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE VARIABLE
WINDS TO 10 MPH. SOME COOLING OVER THE AREA WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
DOWNS A FEW DEGREES...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
AREA.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MIGHT GET A LITTLE INTERESTING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THE MIDDLE YUKON
VALLEY HAD AROUND 100 LIGHTING STRIKES YESTERDAY AND THAT HAS
MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE DIFFERENCE IS SOME
MODIFICATION OF THAT AIRMASS COULD HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THE INTERIOR TONIGHT
WITH MOST OF THAT ENDING BY TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGING BUILDING
NORTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BRING CLEARING AND
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRIER CONDITIONS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOR DAYS 5 TO 8...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVER THE STATE. RIDGING OVER CANADA WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY IN THE INTERIOR AS PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES.

.FIRE WEATHER...WEAK INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...THEN RIDGING OVER
THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE
HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT
SOME WINDS NEAR PASSES IN THE ALASKA RANGE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 20
TO 35 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BUT ABOVE 30 PERCENT
TUESDAY BUT EXPECT THEM TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

SDB APR 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 162106
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
106 PM AKDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. AT 500
HPA THEY ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 72 HOURS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 519 DAM LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL
DISSIPATE AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH AND DISSIPATES
IN THE BUILDING RIDGE. 510 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER CHUKOTKA WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AS A 508 DAM LOW
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH 544 HEIGHTS OVER THE
FAIRBANKS AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 120 KT JET DIVES INTO THE
BASE OF THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS TO
503 DAM AS IT MOVES OVER SAND POINT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW THEN MOVES OVER BRISTOL BAY BY SUNDAY MORNING AS BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE STATE. AT 850 HPA...NOT
MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR TO AROUND 4 CELSIUS ABOVE.
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ARCTIC COAST TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO 3
TO 6 BELOW CELSIUS.

SURFACE...WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE. A 999
MB LOW OVER COOK INLET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE MIDDLE KOYUKUK RIVER BASIN FRIDAY MORNING.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A 975 MB LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL
MOVE OVER THE STATE BEHIND THE DISSIPATING LOW. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK CHINOOK FLOW
DEVELOPING...FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE INTERIOR TODAY WILL SPREAD SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. NEXT FRONT WILL BE PRETTY DRY IN THE
INTERIOR WITH THE CHINOOK FLOW SO MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE WEST COAST WILL SEE SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH UP THE COAST.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...QUIET PERIOD WITH NOT MUCH WIND
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS AT 16/1416Z SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT BAND OF STRATUS THAT STRETCHES FROM BANKS ISLAND
CANADA TO THE CHUKCHI SEA. MOVEMENT IS FROM EAST TO WEST. LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BE BREAKING UP OVER MACKENZIE BAY SO BY TOMORROW
MORNING WE COULD SEE SOME CLEARING FROM THE EAST...BUT NOT
COMPLETELY BUYING INTO THAT SO WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE. WINDS
GENERALLY EAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURES.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...QUIET OUT HERE FOR NOW. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS IN THE MCGRATH AREA AND THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AS
THE FRONT AND LOW OVER COOK INLET MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEXT 24 HOURS. NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY BY FRIDAY EVENING SPREADING
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SNOW...TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN OVER NORTON SOUND AND ONTO THE SEWARD
PENINSULA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA WITH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME CHINOOK WINDS
NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS GUSTING
TO AROUND 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING MUCH NEXT 36
HOURS...THEN WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION.

INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR...MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLEARING
FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. CHINOOK SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH NEAR THE ALASKA
RANGE PASSES AND DELTA JUNCTION. WINDS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
INTERIOR WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH FROM THE SOUTH.

FIRE WEATHER...A FEW AREAS WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROP BELOW
30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOONS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE WILL CREATE NEAR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME FUELS ARE NOT CONSIDERED TO BE
BURNABLE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

SDB APR 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 150853
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
453 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

PROMINENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PERSISTS
INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. RETURN SSE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH
PRES RDG AXIS AND MIXING AT OR ABOVE 850 MB WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER
THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. SSE WINDS MAY ALSO GUST CLOSE TO 20 MPH
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH/S AND THUS ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. COMBINATION OF SSE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING
TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT INTERIOR EAST HALF WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP LOWER LEVELS A
BIT MORE MIXED TONIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN WILL RESULT IN POOR RH
RECOVERY AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 20S. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT AREAS OF THE WEST TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 PERCENT MAX
RH TONIGHT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE FAR WEST MAY NOT REACH 50
PERCENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED
EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. GIVEN EXPECTED LOW DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWATS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN .25 INCH
FOR ALL BUT MAYBE FAR WEST TONIGHT) WENT WITH COOLER SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS LEANING CLOSER TO HI RES CANADIAN MODEL WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

PLETHORA OF SUBTLE FEATURES THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR
ANY BIGGER IMPACT WEATHER WITH ANY OF THEM LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH.
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH DEEP TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF OVER
SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS SHEARING APART AS IT
LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE AREA FIRST PART OF THE WEEK REMAINS DOMINANT SFC FEATURE
WITH DRY AIR PROHIBITING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CWA ON THURSDAY
AS THE LEAD WAVE CROSSES SW-NE ACROSS MICHIGAN. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE H8 WITH ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE QPF. MAINLY EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO STAY EAST
THOUGH. COULD ALSO BE SHRA OVER FAR WEST CWA LATE ON THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE H7 ADVECTS IN FM SW.
MOST LIKELY IT WILL STAY DRY...SO WILL CARRY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRADUALLY WARM OVER PREVIOUS DAYS
SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCE
OF TEMPS THAT WARM ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTH AS THAT AREA WILL SEE
LESS COOLING OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE TROUGH PASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD RESULT. TEMPS SATURDAY CHILLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. USED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MID 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE AND AS WARM
AS 60 DEGREES NEAR WI BORDER. GIVEN THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MIN TEMPS
COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND.

BY LATE WEEKEND ATTN TURNS TO UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS
AND POTENTIAL MERGER OF THIS LOW WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AT LEAST FOR NOW...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PHASING BUT
RESULTING LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEVER REALLY WRAPS UP ENOUGH
TO CAUSE STRONG SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CONSISTENCY WITH THAT SOLUTION IS POOR THOUGH SO ONLY
MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO CONSENSUS FORECAST. BASICALLY WENT FOR THE IDEA
THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE UNSETTLED WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
VCNTY OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. BECOMES COLD ENOUGH BEHIND WHAT EVER SFC
LOW FORMS TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT
MORE SHOWERLY TYPE MODE TO RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY. TEMPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STAY IN THE 30S...WITH
TEMPS ELSEWHERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
IN STORE SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK...MAINLY LOOKING AT A
HANDFULL OF BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW-
END ADVSIORIES. AS OF THIS MORNING...ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES /AFFECTING THE GAGES
NEAR ALSTON AND CHASSELL/...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY...AND THE
STURGEON RIVER IN ALGER AND DELTA COUNTIES AFFECTING THE GAGE AT
NAHMA JUNCTION. MODIS SATELLITE FM TUESDAY SHOWED SNOW STILL ON
GROUND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FM PORCUPINE MTS OVER REST OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MICHIGAMME
HIGHLANDS IN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES AND STILL A LOT OF SNOW
LEFT ON THE GROUND IN THE NW SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN CWA. BASED ON
WHERE SNOW COVER IS LEFT AND MORE MELTING TO COME...RIVERS WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...JLA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 140929
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
529 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SLIDES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
WILL RESULT. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING IN LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON MIXING HEIGHTS ON MONDAY AND
FORECAST MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY ALONG WITH ACTUAL OBSERVED TEMPS ON
MONDAY...NUDGED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MAINLY EAST HALF OF CWA. HIGH
OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN LATE MORNING/AFTN LAKE BREEZES...BUT TEMPS
SHOULD SURGE QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE COOLING KICKS IN THIS
AFTN. WARM TEMPS TODAY WILL WORK TO CONTINUE MELTING LINGERING
SNOWPACK/KEEP SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS AROUND BANKFULL /SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS/. WARM TEMPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE DRYING TREND
THAT STARTED ON MONDAY AFTN. RH VALUES THIS AFTN BOTTOM OUT WELL BLO
20 PCT OVER MUCH OF CWA...PERHAPS EVEN AS LOW AS 10 PCT. WINDS IN
THE MIXING LAYER STEADILY DIMINISH THOUGH BLO 15 MPH AS THE HIGH
DRAWS CLOSER. SO DESPITE THE DRYING CONDITIONS AND TEMPS UPWARD OF
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK.

DESPITE A WEAK GRADIENT OVERHEAD NOW...TEMPS OVER INTERIOR WEST AND
EAST EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY...AS LOW AS MID 20S IN
ISOLD LOCATIONS OF THE WEST. EVEN LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT SO LOWERED
TEMPS MORE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR EAST CLOSER TO DEPARTING
LOW PWAT DOWN AROUND 0.10 INCH. WARMEST TEMPS TONIGHT OUT WEST CWA
AS LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

MILD AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK BEFORE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
STREAKS ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA.

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FM THE
NRN PLAINS AND PERSISTS AT LEAST INTO WED NIGHT. RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ABOUT 3-5F WARMER ON WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY.
GOOD MIXING INTO A DECENT INVERSION BTWN 800-850 MB SHOULD YIELD SSE
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...MODIS IMAGE INDICATES SNOWPACK IS
BASICALLY GONE OVER SRN HALF OF UPPER MI AND IS MELTING FAST OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH GIVEN RECENT SPELL OF WARM WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH/S AND THUS
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICES REACH
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. COMBINATION OF SSE WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 15F
ABOVE AVERAGE...AND AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO 15
TO 20 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS AS MANY
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE ALREADY LOST THEIR SNOWPACK.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS MID-LVL RDG AXIS MOVES EAST ON THU
MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SRN PLAINS WILL
LIFT NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE STREAKING ACROSS NRN MANITOBA AND NRN ONTARIO. MOST
MODELS INDICATE ASSOC SFC TROF WILL DRAW NEAR THE WRN FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO SHOW BETTER GULF MOISTURE STAYING
SOUTH OF THE UPPER LAKES BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARRIVE.
ADDITIONALLY...THE BETTER FORCING FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK AND DEEPER MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV REMAINS NORTH OF THE
FCST AREA. ALL THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE ANTECEDENT VERY DRY
LOW LEVELS...WL LIMIT CHCS FOR RAIN THU INTO THU NIGHT SO
HAVE ELECTED TO PULL SLIGHT CHC POPS FM FCST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS STILL SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
DIGGING DOWN FM SCNTRL CANADA FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
MODELS GENERALLY TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH SHORTWAVE
TRACK AND ASSOC DYNAMICS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECMWF. 00Z GFS
AND GEM-NH STILL SHOW ENOUGH WEAK DYNAMICS ACROSS AREA TO
GENERATE LIGHT SHRA ALONG ASSOC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WL KEEP CHC
POPS IN FCST. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD IN SAT AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE NRN ROCKY MTN REGION.
TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH NW FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR BUT STILL EXPECT INLAND HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 50S.

MODELS SHOW NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARD THE WRN
GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND
GFS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PHASED LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE WRN LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS REMNANTS OF SRN
PLAINS CLOSED LOW EJECT NORTH AND INTERACT WITH ADVANCING MID-LVL
TROF/SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STILL SOME MODEL TIMING
ISSUES AS THE 00Z GFS IS QUICKER THAN 00Z ECMWF WITH TROF ADVANCING
FROM THE WEST. ALSO 00Z GEM-NH NOT SHOWING PHASING/INTERACTION OF
SHORTWAVES AS ADVERTISED BY ECMWF AND GFS. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN NIGHT
INCREASING TO CHC POPS BY MONDAY WHEN MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW BETTER
FORCING/DYNAMICS/MOISTURE INFLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING MID-LVL TROF.
DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF PHASING WITH SYSTEM AND STRENGTH OF SFC
LOW...THERE COULD BE PTYPE ISSUES AS COLDER AIR BEING DRWAN IN FM
THE NORTH CHANGES RAIN OVER TO SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
SITES WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. SAW GETS A LAKE BREEZE TO MOVE
THROUGH BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SWITCH THEIR WIND TO THE
NORTHEAST UNTIL SUNSET WITH LIGHT WINDS THEREAFTER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING WEST WINDS TO 25 KTS THIS MORNING...HIGH
PRES CROSSING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS.
BEYOND TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH
SATURDAY AS EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH...THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

IN LAST 12-18HRS...FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TRAP
ROCK RIVER IN HOUGHTON COUNTY...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER IN HARVEY...AND
THE STURGEON RIVER AT NAHMA JUNCTION FOR RIVER LEVELS REACHING ABOVE
BANKFULL. THERE IS ALSO A HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT EFFECTIVE FOR THE
STURGEON RIVER NEAR ALSTON FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS MAINLY IN BARAGA
COUNTY FROM THE PRICKETT DAM DOWNSTREAM TO THE CONFLUENCE WITH
OUTFLOW FROM OTTER LAKE DAM. AT THIS TIME...THE STURGEON RIVER LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL.

ALONG WITH THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA AND HOUGHTON COUNTIES...THE
ESCANABA RIVER WILL ALSO APPROACH BANKFULL STAGE IN SOME SPOTS MID-
WEEK...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT THE HEADWATERS OF THESE RIVER
HAVE THE MOST SNOW. THE MICHIGAMME RIVER ALSO HAS GREATER SNOWPACK
IN THE HEADWATERS REGION OF THE PESHEKEE RIVER...BUT IT SHOULD TAKE
LONGER FOR THAT WATER TO REACH LOWER SECTIONS OF THE RIVER MORE
PRONE TO FLOODING. STILL...NOT SEEING ANYTHING SUGGESTING MORE THAN
ACTION STAGE POSSIBLE ON THE MICHIGAMME RIVER. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...VOSS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KGGW 202020
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
220 PM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
CAUGHT BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HAVE HAD A BAND OF LOWER
CLOUDS SNEAK IN FROM THE NORTH BUT THEY NOT HAD MUCH SOUTHWESTWARD
EXTENT TODAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THOSE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS
EVENING WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF LOWER TO MID CLOUDS COMING IN AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT.

WE HAVE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR NE CORNER.
OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ITS THE CALM
BEFORE THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY STORM.

OF INTEREST IS THE MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE ICE ROTTING
PRETTY QUICKLY ON FORT PECK LAKE. WITH TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER
50S AND 60S ALONG THE LAKE TOMORROW WE MAY SEE MOST OF THE ICE
GONE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL ON TOP OF ANY REMAINING ICE. FRANSEN

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES ON WITH A MORE NORTHWARD
SOLUTION FOR A SHORTWAVE...TRACKING NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LEADS TO A
WARMER SOLUTION AND MORE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY BE LOADED WITH WATER SO GETTING
PRECIPITATION TYPE RIGHT IS OF THE ESSENCE. NAM BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 0.75 INCHES
SATURDAY EVENING WHICH IS APPROACHING +3SD FROM CLIMO...INDICATIVE
OF A VERY MOIST COLUMN. DO BELIEVE THERMAL PROFILES ARE COLD
ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX OR EVEN SNOW OVER TOWARD PLENTYWOOD BUT
WITH A WARM GROUND ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO MIGHT THE BE
UPWARD EXTEND.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL OFFER A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRINGS SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION AND THUS DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. OF CONCERN IS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...AND EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY INTO
THE DAKOTAS.

THERE EXISTS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM.
THE NEW GFS HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE...HAVING A NARROWER BAND
OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER QPF. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE IS FAR MORE
ROBUST WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY AMOUNTS OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THE MOST INTENSE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERMAL PROFILES
APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. TO THE NORTH THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX OR EVEN
ACCUMULATING SNOW. AS MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONTINUITY IMPROVES WITH
THIS SYSTEM CONFIDENCE WILL IMPROVE. FOR NOW TOO MANY QUESTIONS
REMAIN TO OFFER MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPECIFICS BUT THOSE WITH
INTERESTS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...INCLUDING THOSE INVOLVED WITH
CALVING...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST.

GIVEN THE FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE
MIDWEEK...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST BEYOND
WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK THEREFORE STANDS
AND REMAINS AS DESCRIBED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXITS
NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ON MONDAY.

THE MOST IMPACTFUL PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE
MILES CITY...GLENDIVE...BAKER AREA ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE WITH SHOWING THIS TO BE AN ACTIVE AND WET SYSTEM
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AS DAILY
LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN THAWING AND
FREEZING LEVELS...THIS COULD BE A COMPLICATED MIXED-PRECIP EVENT.
SINCE GROUND TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY THAWED THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ANY SNOWFALL WOULD TAKE A WHILE TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING. THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE SHOWS THE MOST COMPLICATED PERIOD TO BE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...SNOW AND RAIN ALL POSSIBLE. USED THE POTENTIAL
WEATHER TOOLS TO TRY AND DEPICT THIS WITH SOME DETAIL...BUT GFS
IS THE ONLY MODEL TO USE THIS FAR OUT. WITH A VERY CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH TO PRECIP AMOUNTS AND SNOW RATIOS...SNOW UP TO 3 OR 4 INCHES
COULD ACCUMULATE FOR SOME OF OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS. FREEZING RAIN
AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN DURING THIS TIME AS
POTENTIAL TO PROCEDURES GENERATE 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH OF ICE ALSO
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...THIS ACTIVE TROUGH ALSO DROPS AN
ADDITIONAL LOBE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND KEEPS US IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN...ALBEIT WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS
EXPECTED.

GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT IS IN PLACE FOR A CLEARING RIDGE TO MOVE
OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BMICKELSON

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR-VFR

SYNOPSIS: LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ND WITH AN INVERTED TROF INTO
NE MONTANA IS BRINGING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST INCREASING FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
15 TO 25KT RANGE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LOWER CLOUD DECK IS COMING ACROSS THE
BORDER AS WELL AND MOVING SOUTHWARD. THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING
THIS LOWER CLOUD DECK VERY WELL. FRANSEN

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 201025
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
225 AM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS AND THEY HAVE BEEN
HANDLING THE SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT QUITE WELL OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS. NOT GOING TO CHANGE THE APPROACH TO THE FORECAST OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SO WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE
CURRENT DATABASE AND A 50/50 BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING EXTENDS WEST FROM OLD CROW YUKON TO
ANAKTUVUK PASS THEN SOUTHWEST TO NOME THEN OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL ROTATE NORTH OVER THE
NEAR SHORE ARCTIC WATERS THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE LIES FROM OVER
DILLINGHAM TO GALENA TO BETTLES THIS MORNING AND WILL SPLIT WITH
THE SOUTHERN HALF ROTATING INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND THE
NORTHERN HALF MOVING NORTHWEST TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST
THIS EVENING. A SECOND RIDGE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIE FROM
OVER OLD CROW TO CORDOVA THIS MORNING AND MOVE TO LIE FROM
KAKTOVIK TO LIVENGOOD TO HOMER BY THIS EVENING...THEN FROM
DEADHORSE TO RUBY TO ILIAMNA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN REMAINS
STATIONARY AND WEAKENS. A 536 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY TODAY AND MOVE TO THE ALCAN BORDER
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTH TO THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER THE ALCAN BORDER TO OVER KAKTOVIK BY SUNDAY
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS. A 513 DAM
STACKED LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY IS FINALLY ON THE MOVE AND WILL
CONTINUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE NORTH TO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA SATURDAY EVENING. A 525 DAM LOW IN THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST GULF THIS EVENING THEN MERGE
WITH THE LOW OVER THE YUKON FLATS. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SUNDAY. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT ZERO TO 5 BELOW AND DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY THEN SO SLIGHT COOLING
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.

SURFACE...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES UNDER THE BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST WITH WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC
PLAINS. THE PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE MUDDLED AS WE GET INTO THE
WEEKEND AND WEAK HIGHS AND LOWS DEVELOP OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.
A LITTLE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...BERING
STRAIT...AND CHUKCHI SEA. A 1010 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
ARCTIC PLAIN SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE TO 150 NM NORTH OF
WAINWRIGHT BY SUNDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST AS THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS PERSISTING
OVER MOST AREAS AT 10 TO 25 MPH THIS MORNING INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 30 MPH AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC
STRENGTHENS TODAY...THEN WEAKENS SATURDAY TO 10 TO 20 MPH. A FEW
FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW EXPECTED. THE
MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 20/0535Z IS SHOWING
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OR FOG OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND COAST THIS
MORNING AND GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM
IT IS MOSTLY MVFR CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 2000 FT.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...DECAYING FRONT REMAINS OVER
COASTAL AREA WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS. SOME CLEARING INLAND. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA WILL HELP KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND...BUT ONLY EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA
AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY...BUT
WEAK COOLING WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO AS WE
MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH MOST
AREAS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE BERING STRAIT...ON ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND NORTH OF KIVALINA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE
BERING STRAIT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CONTINUED WARM AND SUNNY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS AGAIN TODAY AS THEY ARE
BEING DRIVEN BY THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE MORE THAN THE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. SOME CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S FOR
MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH
ELSEWHERE.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...EXTENDED MODELS ARE
QUITE A MESS SO WILL LEAN ON THE WPC GUIDANCE AND USE A BLEND OF
MODELS. THE ONE THING THAT STANDS OUT IS THAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE SO WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

SDB MAR 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 191006
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
206 AM AKDT THU MAR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS OR SO. CONTINUITY
REMAINS GOOD AND THE 00Z RUNS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE
CURRENT DATABASE AND A 50/50 BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING EXTENDS WEST FROM CANADA THE
INTERIOR THIS MORNING WITH A 544 DAM HIGH OVER YUKON
TERRITORY...THE RIDGING WILL SLIDE NORTH OVER THE BROOKS RANGE
TODAY AS A 544 DAM HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON
TERRITORY...THEN OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING AND OVER
THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OVER
THE CANADIAN ARCTIC COAST. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO LIE FROM OVER BUCKLAND
TO ANAKTUVUK PASS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN UP OVER THE ARCTIC BY LATE
FRIDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE A BRANCH OF THE RIDGE OVER
THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL ROTATE TO LIE OVER KAKTOVIK TO EIELSON
TO ANCHORAGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FROM DEADHORSE TO HUSLIA
TO ANVIK BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE. A 535 AM LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE
TO THE ALCAN BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTH OVER THE ALCAN
BORDER TO OVER KAKTOVIK BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS. A 510 DAM STACKED LOW
REMAINS ANCHORED SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ISLANDS THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST. A 523 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND
MOVE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY SATURDAY MORNING. AT 850
HPA...TEMPERATURES INITIALIZE AROUND 2 CELSIUS WARMER THAN THE
MODELS AT 00Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START COOLING TODAY AND
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING BY LATE
THURSDAY.

SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AROUND A 982 MB LOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SURFACE
PATTERN. WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC
PLAINS CONTINUES. 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
PERSISTS AND IS GETTING SOME HELP FROM A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ARCTIC AND CHUKCHI SEA. RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND TO
THE EAST TODAY WITH THE HIGH CENTER MOVING TO 77N 157W BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK TROUGHING AND EASTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
MPH...EXCEPT ON THE NORTHWEST COAST WHICH WILL SEE WINDS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH IN AREAS SOUTH OF WAINWRIGHT BEGINNING FRIDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE. THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 19/0629Z IS
SHOWING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG BASICALLY FROM THE DALTON HIGHWAY WEST.
THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE IT IS
MOSTLY MVFR CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FT.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE WEAK DECAYING FRONT HANGING AROUND THE AREA. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WITH IT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW FLURRIES...MAINLY SOUTH OF
NORTON SOUND. WINDS NORTHEAST TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...BUT OVER
THE BERING STRAIT...ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND NORTH OF
KIVALINA WINDS OF 20 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR AND SUNNY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALSO...CONTINUED WARM...BUT
NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. HIGHS STILL REACHING INTO THE 30S AND
40S SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER AND INTO THE 20S TO THE NORTH. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TANANA VALLEY...WITH
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH ELSEWHERE.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK ON THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
INDICATING A DRY PATTERN OVER THE INTERIOR WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SDB MAR 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 180941
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
141 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 60 HOURS OR SO.
RUN TO RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD AS WELL AND THE 00Z
RUNS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE TODAY
AND A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING EXTENDS WEST FROM CANADA OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE THIS MORNING AND WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE BY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A 544 DAM HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
YUKON TERRITORY...THEN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND. A 507 DAM STACKED
LOW CONTINUES TO ANCHOR ITSELF SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. A 521 DAM LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING.
AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES INITIALIZE FAIRLY WELL AT 00Z BEING
ONLY AROUND 1 DEGREE TOO COLD. EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO AROUND ZERO TODAY IN THE INTERIOR WITH
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE ARCTIC OR ON THE
WEST COAST.

SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AROUND A 976 MB LOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SURFACE
PATTERN. LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC PLAINS NOT
AS STRONG AS THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT IT WILL CONTINUE. 1025 MB HIGH
OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY WITH SOME
REENFORCEMENT FROM A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC AND
CHUKCHI SEA. 1014 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC TODAY. WEAK
CHINOOK FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE AREA AND
THE THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 17/0547Z IS SHOWING
A BIG PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE COAST. THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS
AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATING IT IS MOSTLY MVFR CLOUDS SINCE MOST
OBSERVATIONS SHOW NOT FOG IN THE AREA. EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES OVER
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH HANGS AROUND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 MPH NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FRONTAL BAND WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY FROM THE NORTON SOUND REGION SOUTH THIS
MORNING...WILL SPREAD A PERIOD OF SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
AREA. ACCUMULATION WILL BE AT MOST AROUND 1 INCH. A FEW FLURRIES
NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA THIS MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL BE
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH
WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING NEAR THE BERING STRAIT...ON ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND...AND NORTH OF KIVALINA. WINDS IN THOSE AREAS WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 45 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WARMER AGAIN TODAY AS WE SEE
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE WHERE WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WITH THE WEAK CHINOOK FLOW.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...MODELS STILL INDICATING
DEVELOPMENT OF LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE STATE BY MIDWEEK AND THE
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS IS GETTING CLOSER. WILL AGAIN OPT ON USING
A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO AVERAGE THAT TIMING OUT AND SOFTEN THE
FEATURES A LITTLE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

SDB MAR 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 171011
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
211 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM. AND THERE
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THE 00Z RUNS
AGAIN INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER EXTENDS NORTH
OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY. A SHORTWAVE WORKING NORTH ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA THIS
MORNING LIES FROM NORTON SOUND TO ANAKTUVUK PASS TO EAGLE THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDS WEST FROM
CANADA AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SLIDE NORTH OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING...OVER THE ALASKA RANGE BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A 544
DAM HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY...THEN OVER
THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO
SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND. A 507 DAM STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO ANCHOR
ITSELF NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND WILL
PERSIST IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES
DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL AND WERE ABOUT 10 CELSIUS TOO COLD IN THE
INTERIOR AND AROUND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS TOO COOL ON THE WEST COAST.
MODELS DO WARM PRETTY RAPIDLY SO THEY SHOULD CATCH UP BUT EXPECT
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN REALITY TODAY.

SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AROUND A 976 MB LOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK
RIDGING WILL NUDGE INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY...BUT WITH
LITTLE IMPACT. A 1025 MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA AND PERSIST. A 1008 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL
MOVE NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC TODAY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH
ARCTIC TONIGHT. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAK LEESIDE TROUGHING WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF THE RANGES AND WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL HANG ON.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...RIDGING OFFSHORE WITH WEAK
TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS AND COAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. A FEW FLURRIES OR EVEN A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW AS THE DECAYING FRONTS MOVE OVER THE AREA AND DISSIPATE. NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS
PRODUCT AT 17/0820Z NOT SHOWING SOME STRATIFIED CLOUDS MOVING OVER
THE AREA BUT THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS INDICATE THEY ARE
PRETTY HIGH BASED.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...TODAY WILL BRING A FEW MORE
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH NOT AS MUCH
AS YESTERDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE
HEAVIEST AREAS IN THE NULATO HILLS. SNOWFALL GENERALLY CONFINED TO
WEST AND NORTH OF RUBY TODAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA UP TO 20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS BUT SOME AREAS IN THE
NULATO HILLS COULD SEE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN
COOL TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CONTINUED WARMING TODAY WITH THE
WEAK CHINOOK FLOW ACROSS THE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST AREAS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
EXCEPT IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND ON THE TANANA FLATS WHERE GUSTY
WINDS TO 25 MPH WILL PERSIST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPRINKLE...BUT EXPECT SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...MODELS ARE MOVING THE
LOW NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SOUTHEAST WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WEST
COAST BY SUNDAY. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DOING THIS WITH
THE ECMWF LAGGING SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL OPT ON USING A BLEND OF THE
MODELS TO AVERAGE THAT TIMING OUT AND SOFTEN THE FEATURES A
LITTLE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.

SDB MAR 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 161146
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
346 AM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THEY ARE A LITTLE
FUZZY ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE 00Z RUNS
INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING RUNS SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE STATE AND WILL SLIDE NORTH AND EAST TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH A QUASI STATIONARY 508 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS PUSHES UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING TO LIE OVER
THE INTERIOR BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE A WEAK
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST BY NOON TUESDAY THEN
ROTATE NORTH OVER THE INTERIOR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A 545 DAM
HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE RIDGING OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL SLOWLY SLIDE NORTH TO BE OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING REMAINING NORTH OF THE ALASKA
RANGE. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 7 CELSIUS
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE AREA TO AROUND ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. THEN COOL SLIGHTLY TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WE GET ANOTHER SHOT OF WARM AIR WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO 2 TO 4 ABOVE CELSIUS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD ON...BUT THE END IS NEAR AS
THE 979 MB LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR CONTINUE TO SPIN FRONTAL BANDS
NORTH. LEESIDE TROUGHING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY WILL
PERSIST WITH WEAK LEESIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN NORTH OF THE ALASKA
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF A BIT...THE TROUGH
THEN STRENGTHENS UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP
STRENGTHEN THE GAP FLOW WINDS AS ANOTHER FRONT SPINS UP TO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL COAST BY MONDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MONDAY EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP UP THE WEST COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. A 1004 MB LOW
DEVELOPS OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES NORTH INTO
THE ARCTIC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR WILL PERSIST OVER THE STATE INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE AND LEESIDE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY. SOME LOCAL GAP
FLOW WINDS IN THE BROOKS RANGE BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE LESS THAN 25
MPH. ON THE COAST EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT AS THE WINDS COME UP A LITTLE THAT
WILL ALL BE PUSHED OFFSHORE. THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS
PRODUCT AT 16/0737Z NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG IN THE AREA AND THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS CONFIRM NO
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF LOW CONDITIONS. DO EXPECT THAT MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE CLOUDS ROLL OVER THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A FEW BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT THAT EACH BAND WILL BRING UP
TO 2 INCHES. ONE OF THE STRONGEST BANDS WILL BE THIS EVENING AND
IT WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE NULATO HILLS AND NORTON SOUND REGION. WITH
THE TROUGH HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE WEEK EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH AT LEAST OCCASIONAL FLURRIES. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF SNOW WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND IT MAY MIX WITH RAIN AS THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE AS THE LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR SLINGS WARM AIR NORTH AND
TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS GET INTO THE
MID 30S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS FROM NORTON SOUND
SOUTH WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO 5 TO 15 MPH...BUT THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET AND WARMING
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY AS HIGHS REACH THE 30S FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF
THE YUKON RIVER AS WEAK CHINOOK FLOW SENDS WARM AIR SURGING
NORTH. DO NOT EXPECT THE FIRST FRONT TO REDEVELOP IN THE BROOKS
RANGE TODAY...BUT THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
TONIGHT AND WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS
RANGE TUESDAY AND MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. CHINOOK WINDS IN
THE ALASKA RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH WITH EACH OF THE
FRONTS...EXPECT A LULL IN THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 225 AND 226 GOING THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALSO A LITTLE TANANA VALLEY JET HAS KICKED WINDS IN THE
FLATS UP TO GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH THIS MORNING AND EXPECT WINDS AT
NENANA TO KICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE DAY. NOT EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION AROUND FAIRBANKS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
GET A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE FRONTS MOVES OVER THE AREA.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...SOME CONSENSUS IN THE
MODELS ON DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE AREA WITH 546
HPA HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND 512 DAM
LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SDB MAR 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 092008
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
308 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE...WITH TEMPS ALOFT INCREASING TOMORROW AS THE WAVE DRAWS
NEAR.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS
WILL KEEP TEMPS MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MIXING TO KEEP FOG AWAY...BUT SOMETHING TO AT LEAST KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT WARMER THAN MOST MODELS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW...AS EVEN THE MILD
ECMWF IS UNDERCUTTING ACTUAL TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. KEPT HIGHS COOLER IN THE SOUTH
WITH THE DEEPER SNOW PACK. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD
SNOW PACK IS ABOUT GONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTER THE FIRST 50 DEGREE READINGS IN SOME TIME TODAY...COULD
ALREADY SEE THE FIRST 60 DEGREE READINGS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SRN WI WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE NRN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM THAT IS OVER SRN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD. A WEAK
CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TUE NT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR WED. THE COLD ADVECTION IS
WEAK...LEAVING A MILD AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE COLD
LAKE BREEZE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FOR WED NT
AND THU WITH SELY WINDS EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
DUE ELY FOR FRI AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
HAVE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE EASTERN ONE QUARTER OF THE AREA VIA
ONSHORE WINDS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE 50S. LOWER
60S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WI RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE SRN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOR FRI NT AND
SAT. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LGT RAIN CONTINUED TO BE FORECAST OVER FAR
SE WI AS THIS SYSTEM MAP CLIP THE AREA. WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FROM CANADA...NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT. POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST WITH A ROLL OVER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SUN NT WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED INTO MON. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MON...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THIS COULD BE SOME FOG TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER
TONIGHT...BUT SO WILL TEMPERATURES. ALSO...WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. WILL THUS NOT MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GEHRING

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 072123
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
323 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. COULD
SEE SOME FLURRIES OR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER
PER THE FARTHER NORTH ECMWF AND CANADIAN...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
THERE. THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE WITH A FARTHER SOUTH AND DRY
SOLUTION.

COULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS TOMORROW AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES COLDER...SO EXPECTING HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY. STILL...TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE MILDER ECMWF...AS THE GFS
AND NAM CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST SUN
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL...A SPLIT JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP
WITH THE NRN BRANCH MAINLY OVER SRN CANADA...AND THE SRN BRANCH
OVER THE SRN USA AND MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL IN THE
SRN BRANCH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME.

SWLY SFC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR MON-TUE WITH
PERSISTENT SFC-850 MB WARM ADVECTION. MOST TEMP GUIDANCE IS TOO
COLD. 925 MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO 2-3C FOR MON AFT AND 8-9C FOR TUE
AFT. THE LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY NOT EXTEND UPWARD TO 925 MB BUT
ADJUSTED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S MON TO 50S TUE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

A TRAILING CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER SRN WI TUE NT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR WED. THE AIRMASS REMAINS MILD BUT
FAR ERN WI WILL SEE A LAKE BREEZE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN
EJECT NEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES...REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FOR THU-FRI. FAR SE WI COULD GET CLIPPED BY LGT RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT ONLY VERY LOW PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THE TEMPERATURES FOR THU-SAT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRESSURE FIELD AND JUST HOW STRONG ANY ELY COMPONENT WINDS WILL
BE. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S OVER FAR ERN WI DURING THIS TIME
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES TOWARD THE ILLINOIS
BORDER...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.MARINE...

VERY LITTLE ICE EVIDENT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON MODIS IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON. MILDER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO
LIMITED ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GEHRING

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 042008
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
308 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. BENEATH THIS SHORTWAVE...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS
ARE IN THE -23 TO -26C RANGE OVER THE CWA AND HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN THE AREAS DOWN WINDS OF THE GAPS IN OR SLUSHY AREAS OF ICE.
BASED OFF TODAY/S VISIBLE AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOSE AREAS
ARE OVER MUCH OF LSZ162 AND THEN AREA NORTHEAST OF ISLE ROYALE AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AREAS WITH ENOUGH FETCH
OVER THOSE PARTIALLY OPEN AREAS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. ELSEWHERE...THE
INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. THIS
DIURNAL HEATING HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...HAVE
SEEN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXPOSED
LOCATIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE HIGHEST GUST REPORTED THUS
FAR AT KCMX HAS BEEN 41MPH AND WHEN THE SNOW HAS MOVED THROUGH IT
HAS DROPPED VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE. BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...THOSE POOR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE VERY LOCALIZED RIGHT WITHIN THE STRONGER BANDS SEEN SLIDING NORTH
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. NORTH OF THAT AREA OVER KEWEENAW
COUNTY...WEBCAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AN
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A VERY COLD AFTERNOON
IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WITH 2PM TEMPERATURES AROUND
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND WARMER HEADING
TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL BE THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LAKE
EFFECT AND COLD LOWS TONIGHT. FIRST FOR THE LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE LARGER
SCALE SUPPORT TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THEN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH
TTHURSDAYMORNING (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS)...EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO GET A BETTER ICE
ANALYSIS AND THAT HAS FINALLY LED TO THEM STARTING TO SHOW SOME LAKE
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWN WIND OF THE OPEN AREAS. WHILE THAT IS SOME
HELP...OPTED TO FOCUS ICE OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE AND THEN FOLLOW
THE MEAN 925-850MB FLOW FROM THE MODELS TO COME UP WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS (LIKELIES) AROUND THE ONTONAGON/ALGER COUNTY AREAS THIS EVENING
WITH THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS STILL IN PLACE. BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF
WINDS BACKING TOWARDS A NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE BANDS INTO THOSE MORE NW WIND FAVORED
AREAS FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE BACKING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO TTHURSDAYMORNING. AS THE WINDS BACK...INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALL BELOW 5KFT AND WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE TEMPS ALOFT AND
DRIER AIR WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
TTHURSDAYMORNING. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HEADING INTO
TTHURSDAYAFTERNOON. BUT THINK THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MUCH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AND ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN AREAS IN LSZ162. DID HAVE SOME
CONCERNS ON THE REDUCED VISIBILTIES AT KCMX THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST CONDITIONS OF 1/4-1/2MI ARE
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE OPEN AREAS AROUND THE AIRPORT.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE WINDS DYING DOWN THIS EVENING AND THE SMALL
SNOWFLAKES LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS...SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH IMPACT WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT.

SHOULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP
AFTER SUNSET AND CLEAR SKIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT
AREAS...SHOULD SEE LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW AND EVEN 20S
BELOW ZERO AT THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WITH THE DECOUPLING
OOCCURRINGDURING THE EVENING AND LIMITED PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT
WINDS TO FALL TO 5MPH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL PROBABLY NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS. BUT WITH BOTH WINDS AND WIND
CHILL VALUES LOOKING TO BE VERY MARGINAL...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. DEBATED AN SPS...BUT NOT SURE IF THE WINDS WOULD
EVEN WARRANT IT AND OPTED TO STICK WITH THE MENTION IN THE HWO.
HIGHS SHOULD START TO TREND WARMER TOMORROW UNDER INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SW AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z FRI.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z
FRI. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST THU NIGHT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

WILL GO DRY FOR THU NIGHT AND THEN HAVE FLURRIES FOR FRI FOR THE CWA
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE FOR FRI. WILL GO
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH
ANOTHER FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. HAVE TEMPERATURES
RISING ON THU NIGHT WITH A NON DIURNAL CURVE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST
COAST 12Z SUN WITH A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE
U.S. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS
CLIPPER IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA 12Z MON ON THE MANUAL PROGS WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON TUE WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL AGAIN FOR
WED. WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING UP
WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEMS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY LITTLE COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ANY PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL
HAVE LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE LIMITED GAPS IN THE ICE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE HEAVIEST BANDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
KIWD...BUT EXPECT THE DIURNAL/SHORTWAVE DRIVEN CLOUDS TO PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD AROUND TAF TIME. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO A
MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAVE
BROUGHT VISIBILITIES DOWN. WITH THE SMALL SNOWFLAKES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGEST
BANDS SINKING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST INTO KIWD WAS LOW AND LEFT
CEILINGS AT MVFR FOR NOW.

THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW AT KCMX WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING...THE FETCH OFF THE OPEN WATER WILL BE LIMITED AND
HAVE BROUGHT UP VISIBILITIES WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS. THE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING.

FINALLY AT KSAW...THE COMBINED DIURNAL AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN HAVE CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE SNOW GOES DOWN. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS
EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A SNOW SHOWER
SNEAKS INTO THE SITE (AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY)...BUT OPTED
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEST-NORTHWEST GALES TO 35KTS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. FEEL THE GOING ENDING
TIMES FOR THE GALE WARNING ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM
EXPIRE AS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS). FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEE A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING TROUGHS/RIDGES...THAT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND FREQUENTLY.
OVERALL...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 30KTS BEHIND THE TROUGHS.
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE LAST DAY...THE ICE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS BEEN SHIFTING AROUND AND BECOME BROKEN UP OVER LSZ162.
WHILE THE COLD TEMPERATURES HAS LED TO SOME GROWTH TODAY...EXPECT
THE QUICKLY SHIFTING WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO LEAD TO THAT ZONE TO BE MORE WATER THAN ICE AND OPTED TO
START ADDING WAVES BACK IN FOR THAT ZONE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 012123
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
423 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
HUDSON BAY INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WITHIN TROF...NEXT SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST IS NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN. CLOSER TO HOME...SOME
-SHSH/FLURRIES HAVE SPREAD FROM WRN UPPER MI INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL
UPPER MI TODAY IN VCNTY OF SFC TROF WHICH IS NOW ROUGHLY BISECTING
UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SWING ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AREA OF DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS
SHIFTS ACROSS UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WITH ASSOCIATED
BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE...850MB TEMPS AROUND -18C...AND A
ROUGHLY 3KFT DGZ LAYER BTWN ROUGHLY 2K AND 5KFT...WOULD NORMALLY BE
CONCERNED ABOUT SEEING SEVERAL HRS OF HEALTHY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IF
THE LAKE WASN'T MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THAT SAID...THE BRISK SW TO W
WINDS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE OPENED UP SOME NOTABLE GAPS IN
THE ICE...SO THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCALIZED MORE
PERSISTENT LES AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION. FROM TODAYS MODIS AND VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY...A COUPLE OF IMPORTANT GAPS IN THE ICE ARE NOTED
FROM AROUND THE HURON ISLANDS DOWN PAST GRANITE ISLAND AND OVER TO N
OF MUNISING...AND ALSO IN THE AREA E OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS WHICH
HAS CERTAINLY HAD A TENDENCY TO OPEN UP OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS WHEN
WINDS ARE SW. WILL THUS HIT HIGHEST POPS AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
DOWNWIND OF THESE OPEN WATER AREAS THIS EVENING (JUST N OF IRONWOOD
TO THE PORCUPINE MTNS AND ALSO ALGER COUNTY). STRONG NEGATIVE
DYNAMICS TAKE OVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT...SO LES INTENSITY WILL
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AWAY FROM THESE AREAS...
WNW/NW FLOW LES SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCT WITH ACCUMULATIONS UNDER
1 INCH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME FLURRIES IN MOST AREAS AS SHORTWAVE
PASSES. TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W TOWARD THE WI BORDER SHOULD FALL
DOWN TOWARD ZERO WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10F.

ANY LINGERING LES TO THE E OF MARQUETTE WILL END BY MON AFTN UNDER
WAA/BACKING WINDS WITH PASSAGE OF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE (BY MID AFTN
850MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE AROUND -12C). WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT EVEN WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR TO START THE
DAY...EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BECOME SUNNY DURING THE DAY WITH DRY AIR
MASS AND DEPARTURE OF 850MB THERMAL TROF. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 TO THE UPPER 20S...COOLEST OVER THE FAR E...CLOSER TO
DEPARTING THERMAL TROF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

...WIDESPREAD SNOW TUESDAY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE...

PRIMARY HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK IS LIMITED TO
WIDESPREAD SNOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...WARM UP EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY A
COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. MAY
BE SOME LAKE EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT CHANCES WILL
BE HELD DOWN AS LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. TEMPS
REBOUND AGAIN BY NEXT FRIDAY AND COULD STAY AT SIMILAR LEVELS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST ON MONDAY EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A TWO-PIECED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING
TOWARD REGION. NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW SLIDES FM
NORTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS THE SFC LOW ARRIVES ALONG THE NEB/IOWA BORDER. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH MAXIMIZES OVERNIGHT BTWN H85 AND
H5. LIFT IS PRETTY STRONG WITHIN THE MOIST ADVECTION...SO SHOULD SEE
LGT SNOW BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD WI BORDER WITH
LOWEST 100MB GRADUALLY SATURATING. HINTS ARE THERE THAT THE INITIAL
SNOW COULD BE DRIVEN BY FGEN...BUT WHERE MAX RIBBON OF HEAVIER SNOW
SETS UP IS NOT CERTAIN. 12Z NAM SHOWS IT MORE OVER WESTERN CWA...BUT
THIS IS AT ODDS WITH NAM DOMINATED SREF OUTPUT AND SEEMS TOO FAR
NORTH AS IT IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SFC LOW ON
INTO TUESDAY. WILL KEEP WITH IDEA OF HEAVIER QPF/SNOW ON TUESDAY ON
EDGE OF GREATER H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH MAINLY IS MAXIMIZED
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF UPR MICHIGAN OUT AHEAD OF
SOUTHERN STREAM SFC LOW CROSSING LOWER MICHIGAN. H7 MIXING RATIOS
GFS/ECMWF STAY BLO 3G/KG THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. MIXING RATIOS INTO THE
SYSTEM AND BLEND OF QPF FM GFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH SLR/S CENTERED ON
15:1...SUGGEST ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL SCNTRL CWA INTO THE EASTERN CWA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO/EHWO GRAPHICS.

PHASING BTWN THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES
NEVEN REALLY TAKES OFF SO THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY PROGRESSIVE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AS MAIN CORE OF UPPER JET ENERGY STAYS OUT AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH. CHANCE POPS LINGER EARLY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE
EAST...BUT OTHERWISE POPS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.
INITIALLY LAKE EFFECT IN WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW ON TUESDAY
EVENING PROBABLY STAYS ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO MARGINALLY COLD AIR
/H85 TEMPS WARMER THAN -15C/ AND MAINLY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR.
GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASE OF MOISTURE H8-H7 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING BLO
-20C OVER LK SUPERIOR RESULTS IN INVERSIONS RISING UP TO A MAX OF
8KFT WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. DESPITE THE HIGH
ICE COVERAGE...SCT POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER LAND AREAS WITH SOME HELP FM DAYTIME HEATING
AS THE HYBRID LAKE EFFECT SEASON IS UNDERWAY DUE TO HIGHER SUN
ANGLE. WITH NW WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ALONG THE LK SUPERIOR
SHORELINES...PROBABLY WILL HAVE BLSN/POOR VSBY IN THE SNOW BELTS
NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MQT. EVEN MINUS BLSN...LES WILL BE GOOD AT
REDUCING VSBY AS THE SNOWFLAKES WILL BE BECOMING SMALLER. H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO FALL BLO -25C BY LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...SO TEMPS
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.

ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WINDS BACKING W-WSW BY THURSDAY
MORNING WILL DIMINISH ANY SNOW SHOWERS AS WINDS BECOME MORE
OFFSHORE. TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD
TANK WELL UNDER 10 BLO ZERO. MAY SEE MARGINALLY LOW WIND CHILLS ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FARTHER INLAND WHERE TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE NEARLY CALM. STILL COLD ON THURSDAY AS CORE
OF COLDER TEMPS ALOFT SLOWLY HEADS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

WARM FRONT MOVES TOWARD UPPER LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WARMING FIRST OCCURS ALOFT THEN MAKES ITS WAY TO SFC BY
FRIDAY AFTN. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SWEEPS
ACROSS LEAVING SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS LATER ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND LIFT
DOES NOT SYNC UP...SO NOT EXPECING MUCH IN WAY OF LGT SNOW. BETTER
LINKING OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR
AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. DECENT AGREEMENT IN THIS IDEA FM GFS AND
ECMWF. COLD AIR NOT AS EMPHATIC FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING H85 TEMPS MAINLY WARMER THAN -12C. GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AND DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL JUST
RUN WITH CONSENSUS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RESULT IS DAYTIME TEMPS IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES AND ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF LGT SNOW MAINLY
OVER THE NORTH AND EAST CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

SFC LOW PRES TROF AND ASSOCIATED -SHSN/MVFR CIGS WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTN. AT KCMX...A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VIS APPEAR LIKELY
THRU 19Z TO 20Z. OTHERWISE...ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND TROF SHOULD
BRING A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTN HRS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING SHOULD GIVE A BOOST TO LAKE EFFECT -SHSN DESPITE A MOSTLY
ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR. RECENT SW WINDS MAY HAVE OPENED UP AN
AREA OF WATER E OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. IF SO...SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN -SHSH MAY OCCUR AT KIWD THIS EVENING UNDER LOW-LEVEL
WNW FLOW. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT
KIWD/KCMX TONIGHT WITH OCNL -SHSN. BACKING WINDS MON MORNING WILL
BRING A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD. AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING UNDER DOWNSLOPE WNW
FLOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

SEEMS THAT POTENTIAL FOR GALES IS INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK TO BE 15 TO 25 KTS.
LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LK SUPERIOR IS AROUND 95 PCT.
EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK...EXPECT THE HIGHER ICE
COVERAGE TO PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 012103
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1203 PM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE TO BE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT EVEN OUT
INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. JUST
GOING TO NUDGE THE CURRENT GRIDS WITH A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH A CENTER
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS WORKING EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HEIGHTS
AROUND 546 DAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL FALL A LITTLE AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE MAY
SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
ONE. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY WORK
ITS WAY EAST AND NORTH AS IT WORKS OVER AND THROUGH THE RIDGE. A
536 DAM LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC AND INJECT SOME
ENERGY INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT MERGES INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE WEST COAST MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN LIE FROM OVER POINT LAY TO UNALAKLEET TO
CAPE NEWENHAM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FROM BARROW TO HUSLIA TO
LIME VILLAGE LATE TUESDAY EVENING...AND FROM DEADHORSE TO BETTLES
TO SEWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN EXIT THE STATE INTO
CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL LOSE QUITE A BIT OF
ENERGY AS IT PUSHES INTO AND OVER THE RIDGE. ZONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE IS SQUASHED DOWN AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE ENERGY...AND
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE TRAIN OF WAVES THAT WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET
A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE WEEK GOES ON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY...AND WHAT MAY BE THE STRONGEST TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT 850
HPA...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ON
THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
ANOTHER 6 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS. ON THE WEST COAST SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINNING THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW KICKS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

SURFACE...1041 MB HIGH OVER NORTHEAST HALF OF THE MAINLAND WILL
WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL SET UP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE AS A 991 MB LOW IN
THE WESTERN BERING SEA MOVES TO THE GULF OF ANADYR MONDAY
MORNING...AND A 1000 MB LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEMS COMBINE
INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THAT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST MONDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW OVER THE
GULF OF ANADYR MOVES TO THE ARCTIC THE LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS
WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY LATE MONDAY EVENING AT 998
MB...THEN TO KOTZEBUE SOUND AT 999 MB BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
TROUGHING EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK OVER THE RIDGE WITH A COLD FRONT DRAGGING EAST.
THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO NOME TO NUNIVAK ISLAND
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN FROM BARROW TO AMBLER TO UNALAKLEET TO
BETHEL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND FROM DEADHORSE TO HUSLIA TO
DILLINGHAM TUESDAY EVENING...THEN MACKENZIE BAY CANADA TO A
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR BETTLES TO MCGRATH TO KING SALMON BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN DRAG ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
MOVE FROM THE EAST COAST OF JAPAN TO THE SEA OF OKHOTSK BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
THE EASTERN BERING SEA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...BLIZZARD CONTINUES FOR NOW IN
ZONES 204 AND 206...BUT WINDS WILL DROP OFF DRASTICALLY LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OFF INTO CANADA. RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL ALSO COVER THE NORTH SLOPE SO CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MILD NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP...WEST OF
BARROW...FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. TROUGH DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE BROOKS RANGE SO EXPECT SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BUT NOT SURE ON JUST HOW MUCH. NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET FOR NOW. WEATHER
FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW WILL
BEGIN ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE TONIGHT BECOMING HEAVY ON MONDAY
EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS...RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW FOR A FEW
HOURS MID DAY MONDAY. EXPECT SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OVER ZONES
214 AND 215 WHEN IT STARTS BUT THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATER IN
THE EVENING. BY TUESDAY MORNING SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER ALL THE
COASTAL AREAS AND START WORKING INTO THE INTERIOR AREAS. SNOWFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 10 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE NULATO HILLS...THE CENTRAL SEWARD
PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. COOLING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
MPH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...GOOD NIGHT TO VIEW THE AURORA AS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL TONIGHT. SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDY AND PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 6 AND 7...VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH
ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. THIS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN MUCH BETTER THAN NORMAL LATELY SO
SHOWING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE EVENT AT THIS
TIME.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 01/1357Z/NPP VIIRS AT 01/1438Z 24 HOUR
AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS CONFIRM THE MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS OVER THE STATE. AND THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS
PROVIDE EVEN MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THE ONLY STRATUS CURRENTLY
FLOATING AROUND THE AREA IS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
WITH THE EXITING LOW.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SDB MAR 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 272223
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ALL WEEK IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE
WEATHER FRONT IN THE BERING SEA THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE WITH VERY MINOR PRESSURE
DIFFERENCES. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE...BUT WILL BUMP MOST OF THE POPS UP USING THE
SREF SO WE HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION
NUMBERS LOOK PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH AROUND ONE HALF INCH SO MOST
AREAS WILL SEE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
EXTENDS FROM A HIGH NEAR HAWAII. THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF IT THIS EVENING. A
SECOND...MUCH STRONGER...SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 499 DAM LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM
WAINWRIGHT TO TANANA TO LIME VILLAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW FALLS 497 DAM AS IT MOVES TO THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE LOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO 78N 160W IN THE HIGH ARCTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO FORT YUKON TO
MCCARTHY BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...THEN EXITS THE STATE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN PRETTY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AS HEIGHTS CLIMB FROM AROUND 534 DAM SATURDAY EVENING TO
AROUND 550 DAM SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY STALLING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 532 DAM LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA DIGS IN OVER THE WEST COAST. AT 850 HPA...COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 12 TO 16 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AND RISE 12 TO 16 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE MONDAY...THEN BECOME PRETTY STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS KICK UP PRETTY GOOD WITH THE FRONT TO 40
TO 50 KTS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SURFACE...1029 MB HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND
EAST AS A RAPIDLY MOVING WEATHER FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS IT LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO NOME TO KIPNUK BY AROUND 3
AM...THEN FROM WAINWRIGHT TO KOTZEBUE TO MARSHALL BY 9AM SATURDAY.
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO BETTLES TO TANANA
TO LIME VILLAGE BY 3 PM...AND THEN FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO FORT
YUKON TO EIELSON TO PALMER BY 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE EAST EXITING THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A 1040 MB
HIGH BUILDS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND IT...WINDS WILL COME DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID DAY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER
THE INTERIOR. STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY EVENING AT 1045 MB...THEN
SLIDES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...IT IS GOING TO BE A MESS THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING
AROUND 20 CELSIUS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THAT COMBINED WITH
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY SIGNIFICANT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND WORK ACROSS THE ARCTIC. INITIALLY WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 MPH GUSTING AROUND 50
MPH...THAT WILL BE AS STRONG AS THE WIND GETS WEST OF
NUIQSUT...TO THE EAST OF NUIQSUT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINE TO PUSH
WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE OF 65 MPH GUSTING TO 80 MPH. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE BLOWN AROUND INTO
DRIFTS. VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
THEN REBOUND UP 10 TO 20 DEGREES FAIRLY RAPIDLY MONDAY. WILL
ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ZONES 203...204...AND 206 MAINLY EAST
OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MAINLY
BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS FOR ZONES 201...202...AND 205.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
COAST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. SOME AREAS
WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FIRST SHOT. THE NEXT
SHOT WILL COME WITH THE FRONT THAT GETS TO THE COAST SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CARRY A LITTLE PUNCH WITH IT SO EXPECT 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST
TO EAST. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BEGIN CLEARING BY NOON WITH
INLAND AREAS CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG OUT HERE AS THEY WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN
THE INTERIOR AS THE COLD AIR HANGS BACK A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT
THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECT IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION
AND THE BERING STRAIT...BUT THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ROLLER COASTER AS THEY COOL RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM RAPIDLY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP FOR 207...208...213...AND 217. WILL
ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 209 AND 210 FOR NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WEATHER FRONT MARCHES
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING AROUND TANANA BY 10 AM SATURDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS TRENDING DOWN OVERNIGHT
FROM THE WEST. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HILLS WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH BUT EXPECT WINDS IN THE VALLEYS TO GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH. SNOWFALL WITH THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT MUCH OF THAT SNOW ON THE HILLS WILL BE BLOWN
AROUND INTO DRIFTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR THEM TO REBOUND MONDAY. WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 218...219...220...221...222...AND
224.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 27/2040Z/NPP VIIRS AT 27/2012Z 24 HOUR
AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS SHOW THE LARGE AREA OF STRATUS
MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR. A LITTLE HARDER TO SEE
IT ON THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS...BUT USING IN COMBINATION WITH
THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND THE GOES CLOUD PHASE PRODUCT
IT STANDS OUT REALLY WELL.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ218-AKZ219-
AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ235.

SDB FEB 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 251308
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
408 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THE LAST COUPLE RUNS.
THIS RUN INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL USE A BLEND
OF THE MODELS TO TWEAK THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OVER THE YUKON AND
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM LOW
OVER WRANGEL ISLAND IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE THIS MORNING AND WILL BE INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY NOON.
THE 494 DAM LOW OVER WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
HIGH CANADIAN ARCTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 546 DAM LOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP FROM
THE WESTERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT AND NORTHWEST ALASKA
TO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA TODAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
BEING SHUT OFF. A MAJOR SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA THURSDAY MORNING MOVING TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
FRIDAY EVENING AND CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE. THE SHORTWAVE THEN
MOVES TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY
LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE YUKON SUNDAY MORNING. A 564 DAM
HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC OVER KODIAK ISLAND
BY THURSDAY MORNING AND RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY
SATURDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION AS THE RIVER OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE
AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE EVENT. THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF WARMER AIR THAT THE MODELS CANNOT
DEFINE DUE TO THE SIZE OF THE GRID.

SURFACE...WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING
SPREADING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND THE AREA
MAINLY EAST OF FAIRBANKS. FRONT MOVES INTO YUKON BY AFTERNOON AS
1034 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING AND WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 998 MB LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTH
TO THE HIGH ARCTIC TONIGHT THEN MOVES EAST. A 1005 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST CHUKCHI SEA AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF BARROW
BY THURSDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE. A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
BERING STRAIT AND NORTHWEST ALASKA TO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA. A
991 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY MORNING AT 1001 MB THEN MOVE NORTH OVER
EASTERN SIBERIA. A 1005 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
ANADYR THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AT 1006 MB...THEN MOVE TO OVER BARROW BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN INTO MACKENZIE BAY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 1008 MB
LOW WILL SPIN UP INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AND MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING TO THE
NORTHWEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEST COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE
EXITING INTO THE YUKON SUNDAY MORNING AS A 1045 MB HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
AREA WITH SIGNIFICANTLY VARYING CONDITIONS AS EACH FRONT GETS
CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AND MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF FLURRIES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN
PERIODS WHEN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS HEAVIER SNOW
AND STRONGER WINDS MOVE THROUGH WITH THE FRONTS. WILL ISSUE
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONE 201 AND 205...BUT AS NOTED CONDITIONS
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. WINDS INCREASING TODAY TO 30 TO 50 MPH AS
ONE OF THE STRONGER FRONTS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. THE LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW IN THE ARCTIC...BUT AREAS IN THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL SEE SOME HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FAIRLY FLAT NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN WARM A LITTLE ON FRIDAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...THE RIVER OF MOISTURE WILL BRING
HEAVY SNOW TO ZONES 207...208...210...211...213 AND 217. THE WINDS
ARE LOOKING TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED
BY THE MODELS SO INSTEAD OF WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL THE AREAS
WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONE 213 AND UPGRADE THE REST TO
WARNINGS IF THEY HAVE NOT BEEN ALREADY. QPF IS STILL PRETTY HIGH
OVER THOSE AREAS...BUT GFS SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH SO WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE ECMWF FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOWFALL. WINDS ARE A
LITTLE MORE FRISKY THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED SO LOOK FOR WINDS
FROM NOME NORTH OF 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH...EXCEPT ON THE
BERING STRAIT COAST...ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND FROM KIVALINA
NORTH WINDS WILL BE IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE WINDS GUSTS NEAR 65
MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY FLAT THOUGH SOME WARM AIR WILL
BE PULLED NORTH AND MAY RESULT IN SOME RAIN MIXING WITH THE SNOW
ON THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES FROM FAIRBANKS WEST
THIS MORNING AS THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
FLURRIES ENDING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SOME CLEARING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL RIDE
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE YUKON RIVER. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA WITH NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER
THE AREA. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE
BEGINNING SATURDAY...SPREADING SNOW FROM THE WEST OVER THE
INTERIOR BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY AT THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SOME STRONGER WINDS
OF 20 TO 35 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING THE
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS
AT 25/0845Z SHOW LARGE AREAS OF STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THE LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. NO VIIRS FOG PRODUCTS SO FAR THIS MORNING TO
COMPARE...BUT THE MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS WITH THE
SAME TIME STAMP INDICATE IT IS MOSTLY STRATUS AND NOT FOG.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213-
AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ205.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

SDB FEB 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 250936 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ADDED TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE SECTIONS

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOWING UP ON THE VWP NETWORK IN NODAK AT 850H
TAKES A SOUTHEAST TRACK ACROSS ERN SODAK AND WRN IA TO NEAR IA/MO
BORDER BY 00Z. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NUDGING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND 06Z NAM EVEN FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THIS CIRCULATION IS TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ALONG A TIGHT
BAROCLINIC RIBBON. THIS NORTHEAST NUDGE IS BRINGING A MUCH BETTER
THREAT FOR -SN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WI FROM LATE MRNG
INTO THE EVE. 285 ISENTROPIC OMEGA SHOWS BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER LIFT
IN THE AFTN AFFECTING SOUTHWEST CWA WHICH TIES INTO WHERE BETTER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. MODERATE LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALSO BRUSHES SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTN.

THICKNESSES FAVOR SLR AROUND 20 TO 1 WITH QPF BETWEEN 0.05 TO 0.1.
AT THIS TIME THINKING A COUPLE INCHES COULD OCCUR IN THE DARLINGTON
AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING...TRAILING OFF TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE
MADISON AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTN. WL ADD MENTION TO THE HWO AS -SN WILL BE OCCURING DURING
EVE RUSH.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HUNG ONTO SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND LIFT WITH PASSING 850MB LOW SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW MORE LIKELY TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO STRONGER SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THRU THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
COLD AIR SINKING ACROSS LAKE MI WILL RESULT IN THE DELTA-T
INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 20C. EXPECT DEEP RH UP TO 10K FEET
FOR A TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES...WITH MUCH OF THE
COLUMN IN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DURING THE LATE EVE TO AFT
MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 20KTS RESULTING IN
SEVERAL PERIODS OF FAVORABLE OMEGA ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

HIGH RES MODIS IMAGE FROM TUE AFTN SHOWED ICE COVER REMAINING OVER
MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT LAKE WATERS BEYOND 10 MILES
REMAINED ICE FREE. HARD TO SAY WHAT AFFECT THE ICE COVER WILL
HAVE...BUT ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO
LIKELYS FROM SRN MKE COUNTY SOUTH TO IL BORDER WITH SCT WORDING
FARTHER NORTH. LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLOW CHART RESULTS IN MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT BUT WITH ICE COVER AND GRADUALLY BACKING
WINDS...WL LIMIT SNOWFALL TO 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR NOW.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS LINGER LIGHT LAKE EFFECT QPF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING...AS 1000/850 MB CONVERGENCE SLOWLY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. VERY FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES REMAIN...THOUGH
AIR COLUMN ABOVE INVERSION DRIES OUT. THUS...CONTINUED TO MENTION
MODEST POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 00Z SATURDAY...THEN TO
THE EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY AIRMASS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG NEAR SURFACE INVERSION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS WELL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. LOWS MAY GET SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER IF
WINDS FULLY DECOUPLE...WHICH IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND FRIDAY INTO THE MID TEENS...ARE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY 12Z
SATURDAY...AND GENERALLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY
CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH TRENDS FOR THE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 TO 9 HOURS QUICKER WITH BRINGING
INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION QPF INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THEY
BOTH BRING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MORE MODEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT MAINLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT IN LATER FORECASTS IF QPF
CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SLIDES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW TRACK
TIMING...THOUGH BOTH DO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY IN LATER FORECASTS...AS THIS TRACK COULD BRING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. STAY
TUNED...

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

BETTER THREAT FOR -SN TO SPREAD INTO KMSN THIS AFTN WITH CIGS AND
VSBYS BRIEFLY LOWERING TO MVFR. LAKE EFFECT -SHSN LIKELY TO AFFECT
KMKE AND KENW TNGT WITH POTENTIAL FOR CIGS AND VSBYS DROPPING AS LOW
AS IFR.

.MARINE...

HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS IMAGE FROM TUE AFTN HAD PARTIAL CLEARING OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH REVEALED ICE COVER PERSISTING IN THOSE
VSBL AREAS. WITH COLD AIR RETURNING AND SETTLING IN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK...EXPECT WIDESPREAD ICE COVER TO CONTINUE. WIND GUSTS WL
GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR A TIME TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 250748
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
348 AM AST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK LEADING TO STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS AND DRYING CONDITIONS.
RIDGE WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH ESTABLISHES OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN LEADING TO SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY.

.DISCUSSION...ONE LAST DAY OF 'WET CONDITIONS' BEFORE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES FIRM CONTROL OF THE REGION LEADING TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. AN AREA OF HIGHER
TPW APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT THIS TIME WILL ADVECT WWD
TODAY LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...RIDGE EXPECTED TO TAKE FULL CONTROL OF
THE REGION LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SIGNIFICANT
DRYING ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALSO BE TIGHTENING WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 20-KT OVER
COASTAL AREAS AND OVER WATER INTO SUN MORNING.

RIDGE WEAKENS SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH PATTERN
BROADENS AND AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST-CNTRL ATLC INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN PROMOTING MOISTURE RECOVERY AND MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS MON AND TUE. TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ESTABLISHING LEADING TO DRYING CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA XCP SCT OVR NW PR IN AFT...YET VFR EVEN IN
MOST SHRA THRU THU. FEW OBSCD MTNS THIS AFT. WIND BLO FL120 E-ESE
12-20 KT INCR E 14-28 KT LATE TONITE-THU.

.MARINE...ONE LAST DAY OF GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY BEFORE
WINDS STRENGTHEN THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND STEEP WAVES OF 6-8 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SUN AND LIKELY BEYOND THAT AS
WINDS DO NOT APPEAR WILL SLOW DOWN.

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY ACTIVE FIRE WX PATTERN EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH
THURSDAY AND HOLD THROUGH SUN UNDER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SFC
AND ALOFT LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE FUEL MOISTURE
AS RAINFALL HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE MONTH OF FEB IN MOST
PLACES. GREATEST RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE BEEN IN ST. CROIX...SOUTHWEST...
SOUTHEAST...AND NCNTRL PR BASED ON AHPS AND LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL DEFICITS THIS TIME AROUND ARE SIGNIFICANT LOWER
WHEN COMPARED TO THE WINTER OF 2013 AND 2014. WILL LIKELY ISSUE A
FIRE WX WATCH FOR ST. CROIX WHERE 30-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN
DISMAL AND MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY VEGETATION AND SUSCEPTIBLE
TO BURNING. WILL ALSO COORDINATE WITH PR FIRE CORPS AND FISH AND
WILDLIFE SERVICE ON FUEL CONDITIONS TO SEE WHETHER FIRE WX WATCHES
MAY BE NEEDED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 88 74 / 20 10 10 10
STT 84 77 84 77 / 10 10 10 10

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

54/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KBUF 240905
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
405 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOWARD THE 20
DEGREE MARK TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES
AT LEAST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
MORE CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHARP SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LARGER MEAN TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY
WILL DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND WILL ARRIVE ON
WESTERN NEW YORKS DOOR STEP BY THIS EVENING. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO PUSH NEAR THE 20 DEGREE MARK BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...AND COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE WARM AIR ADVECTION / LIFT AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL HELP THE WINDS FROM REACHING
THEIR FULL GUSTY POTENTIAL. THUS USING THE MIXED WINDS AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE WIND GUST FORECAST...HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE GUSTS BY 10
TO 15 PERCENT. THIS LARGELY GIVES GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN LAKES AND THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS THESE WINDS INCREASE...SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE TOP LAYER OF SNOW REMAINS
LOOSELY PACKED.

ALSO BY THIS EVENING...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST. WINDS TURNING MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
HELP ENHANCE SNOWFALL IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE
AND THE TUG HILL REGION WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY THERE. SOME
DOWNSLOPING INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL HELP TO LIMIT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...WITH GENERALLY A COATING TO AN INCH LIKELY THERE. OVERALL
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH
WINDS CONTINUING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THE FRESH LAYER OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE
QUICKLY EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER AT LEAST SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THIS
MAY ALLOW A DECENT AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE TUG HILL REGION. NOTE THAT THE LATEST
MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A DECREASE IN ICE COVER OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
LAKE RESPONSE.

LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS PEAK AROUND 10K FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING NEAR THE TIME OF THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE...THEN LOWER TO
AROUND 5K FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY TO SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS IN PERSISTENT
BANDS EAST OF THE LAKE. HAVE INITIALLY GONE WITH AMOUNTS OF 3-5
INCHES ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TUG HILL
FOR WEDNESDAY. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY FOR
THIS AREA AS CONFIDENCE GROWS ON PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. THE WESTERN
END OF THE BAND MAY ALSO BRUSH THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM
EASTERN NIAGARA TO NORTHWEST MONROE COUNTIES WITH AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION ON WEDNESDAY.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL FORCE TEMPERATURES TO
FALL DURING THE DAY...WITH TEENS IN THE MORNING DROPPING TO SINGLE
NUMBERS BY LATE AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ONSHORE
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE WITH SNOW WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AS
FETCH SHORTENS...INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER...AND LOW LEVELS CONTINUE
TO DRY. ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE TYPICAL AREAS FROM NEAR IRONDEQUOIT BAY EAST
TO OSWEGO COUNTY. SOME VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE THROUGH THURSDAY.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE
STRONGER WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND PA/NY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND MAY
EVEN PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH.
THE COLD CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN MOST
AREAS...AND AROUND 10 ON THE LAKE PLAINS. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FREE FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE VERY
COLD AIRMASS WILL STILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC BY LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND EVEN SOME
SUNSHINE. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
HIGH MAY ALLOW AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE HIGH SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER TEENS. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODERATION ON SATURDAY...BUT A STEEP SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION MAY RESULT IN A STRUGGLE TO WARM THE SURFACE DESPITE
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. WITH THIS IN MIND EXPECT MANY AREAS TO SEE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN GROWS MORE COMPLEX AND INTERESTING BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SEND TWO SHORTWAVES
TO THE EAST. THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL CAPTURE SOME
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE DURING ITS TRIP ACROSS THE NATION...WHILE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
WILL PROVIDE A FRESH SUPPLY OF COLD AIR. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME INTERACTION AND PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO
WAVES...RESULTING IN A WIDE SWATH OF INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED COLDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND ARE
NOW COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS THIS SYSTEM HAS TO WORK WITH...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...THE SAME BASIC PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WAVY BAROCLINIC ZONE
DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL US TO THE MID ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WAVE MAY
MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND
FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH THIS FEATURE...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO OUR
REGION. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP STAYING ALL
SNOW AGAIN...AND THIS IS A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE DOMINANCE
OF COLD AIR RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE CONUS.

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. KART WILL BE THE ONLY
EXCEPTION THIS MORNING AS A WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND BRIEFLY
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KIAG/KBUF. AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THE LONGEST AT KJHW AS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY
KEEP A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. BLOWING SNOW COULD
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITHIN AND AFTER THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
FRESH COATING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

.MARINE...
THE FOCUS TODAY TURNS TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS
PUSHING 30 TO 35 KNOTS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
INCREASE INTO THE LOW 20S THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CANCELED THE HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ON LAKE ONTARIO. HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR OPEN WATER PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS REMAIN LAKE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING SPRAY AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKES.

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.

STATION: VALUE (F) MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO 11.6 FEB (1934)
13.4 FEB (1875)
13.8 JAN (1977)
14.1 JAN (1918)
14.6 FEB (1885)
14.9 FEB (1979)
15.5 FEB (1978)
15.6 JAN (1920)
15.6 JAN (1912)
16.2 JAN (1945)

ROCHESTER 12.6 FEB (1934)
13.7 FEB (1979)
14.4 FEB (1875)
14.5 FEB (1885)
14.8 JAN (1918)
14.9 JAN (1994)
15.2 JAN (1945)
15.5 JAN (1977)
15.7 JAN (1981)
16.1 JAN (1920)

WATERTOWN 6.4 DEC (1989)
6.5 JAN (1970)
6.9 JAN (1994)
7.9 FEB (1978)
8.0 JAN (1981)
8.1 JAN (2004)
8.4 FEB (1979)
10.0 JAN (2003)
10.1 JAN (1977)
10.3 JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.

---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY'S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION: SNOW (IN) YEAR

BUFFALO 1 54.2 1958
2 49.5 1960
3 44.3 2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21)

ROCHESTER 1 64.8 1958
2 58.3 1960
3 46.5 2007
4 42.7 1910
5 41.7 2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21)

---IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 7 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

NUMBER YEAR

10 1979
8 1934
7 1963
7 1875
7 2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 14 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

NUMBER YEAR

16 1978
15 1993
15 1979
14 2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21)

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ001>008-
010-011-013-014.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ012-
019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH
CLIMATE...THOMAS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 222026
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
226 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO
ILLINOIS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EASE OVER SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT... AND THEN INCREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE HIGH WILL BRING A CORE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION.

925MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO -22 TO -24C WHICH TRANSLATES TO THE LOWER
TO MID TEENS BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT. COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE TOWARD
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WI... CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE HIGH. WINDS
COULD DECOUPLE THERE WHICH WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN
FORECAST... BUT WIND CHILL TEMPS WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS LOW.
OVERALL... EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT 5 TO 10
MPH... SO MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 BELOW
RANGE FROM MID EVENING THROUGH MID MONDAY MORNING. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK OUT OF THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME SOUTHWEST LATE WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A NORTHERN TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHES THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH WEAK UPWARD 700 MB LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TUESDAY. MODERATE
925/850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEAKER COLD
AIR ADVECTION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 925/850/700 MB SWINGS DOWN
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRYING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH 925 MB RH REMAINS LONGER INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DRYING FROM THE NORTH LATE.

THE SURFACE LOW IS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT REACHING THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NAM BRINGS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE BOTH DRIER...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF HAVING NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EXCEPT TOWARDS SHEBOYGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE THE LOW MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE BASE OF THE INITIAL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. WEDNESDAY....WITH A SECOND
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH MAINLY WEAK DOWNWARD
MOTION AT 700 MB. 700 MB RH IS LOW. THE 925/850 MB RH DRIES
TUESDAY EVENING WITH 925 MB RH INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS...
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH NORTH LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE SPLIT FLOW BREAKS DOWN AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH BUILDS BACK
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS WISCONSIN
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE COLD SURFACE HIGH SAGS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WISCONSIN. AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON THE
REGION. WITH LIGHT WINDS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD IF
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH LIGHT WINDS...WINDS CHILLS WILL
NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL AS IT WEAKENS AND A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.

THE CENTER OF THE COLD SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS WISCONSIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES A LITTLE EAST FRIDAY CONTINUING THE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS...WINDS CHILLS WILL
NOT BE A FACTOR.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE REACHES THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS TO WISCONSIN.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY
EJECTING SHORTWAVES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TWO SHORTWAVES PUSHING
EAST NORTHEAST...THE FIRST WOULD MOVE WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN.
THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH ANY EJECTING SHORTWAVES. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS.

THE GFS BRINGS IN MORE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS WOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD ONLY BEGIN SOME LIGHT SNOW
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NEW 12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z
GFS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTHEAST FROM MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... THEN BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR STRONG AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL...
WITH 40 TO 50 KNOT WSW WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL.

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A LAYER OF ICE OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 220847
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
347 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

NEXT QUICK HITTING PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR IS CURRENTLY SURGING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY WITH SUB -30C 85H AIR COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR BELOW ZERO AND EXPECT MANY AREAS TO
REMAIN BELOW ZERO TODAY. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...WIND CHILLS WILL HOLD IN THE -20 TO -30 F RANGE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. BIGGEST CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. YESTERDAYS MODIS IMAGERY SHOWED SOME OPEN WATER
ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
SHOVING AND COMPRESSING THE ICE PACK TO THE SOUTH. IN
ADDITION...ICE COVERAGE OVER THE DEEPEST PART OF THE LAKE IS STILL
PRETTY THIN. BASED ON HOW COLD THE AIR MOVING OVER THE LAKE TODAY
WILL BE...EXPECT HEAT FLUXES THROUGH THE ICE TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDING FOR NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FAVORED AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST. LATEST IR IMAGERY IS
HINTING AT SOME OF THESE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED OVER ICE BANDS.
WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION EVEN WHERE THE BANDS DO OCCUR...OVERALL
SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT...NOTHNG MORE THAN AN INCH OR
TWO PER 12 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MANY TIMES
RECENTLY...THE FINE SNOWFLAKES IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE
EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VISIBILITY.

CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINSIH SOME TONIGHT...BUT AS THEY DO TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL OFF INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO. EVEN WITH WINDS
OF 10 MPH OR LESS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 30 TO 40
BELOW ZERO RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL
KEEP WIND CHILL ADVISORY GOING THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY AND ADD
MENOMINEE COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

PERSISTENT HI AMPLITUDE UPR RDG OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN
NAMERICA/DEEP TROF OVER CENTRAL AND ERN NAMERICA WL PERSIST THRU
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WL BRING ARCTIC SURGES INTO THE UPR LKS THRU MID WEEK. TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK THOUGH...FALLING HGTS OVER THE W WL ALLOW FOR A
MORE ZONAL FLOW AND SOME AIRMASS MODERATION. BUT WITH DRY HI PRES
FCST TO BE DOMINATING...LO TEMPS MAY STILL BE QUITE COLD DESPITE THE
MORE SEASONABLE H85 AND DAYTIME TEMPS.

SUN NGT/MON...SPRAWLING ARCTIC HI PRES CENTERED OVER SW MN AT 00Z
MON IS FCST TO SLIDE SLOWLY S AND OVER THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY BY
00Z TUE. FOR UPR MI...THIS TRACK WL RESULT IN A STEADILY BACKING NW
TO SW WIND. SCATTERED LK EFFECT SN SHOWERS OFF BREAKS IN THE ICE
INTO THE NW WIND SN BELTS ON SUN NGT...LIMITED GREATLY BY LARGER
SCALE ACYC H925 FLOW AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE FM 3-4K FT
TO 2K FT AGL AS WELL AS THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER...WL TEND TO SHIFT
OFF INTO LK SUP ON MON. STEADY H925 WINDS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE ON
SUN NGT/MON MRNG IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS MODERATING STEADILY
DUE TO WAA/SUBSIDENCE FM ABOUT -30C AT 00Z MON TO -20C AT 18Z MON
JUSTIFY GOING WIND CHILL HEADLINES. SINCE THE BACKING FLOW WL LIMIT
LK MODERATION INTO THE E...AN AREA WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE CORE OF
THE RETREATING ARCTIC AIR...OPTED TO EXTEND THE WIND CHILL ADVY
HEADLINE FOR THE ERN CWA THRU MON MRNG EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN THE ADVY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS ON SUN AFTN. ACTUAL AIR TEMPS
ON SUN NGT COULD BE QUITE COLD AND UNDER -20F OVER THE INTERIOR W
HALF...WHERE SFC WINDS MIGHT BE A BIT LIGHTER CLOSE TO THE HI CENTER
PASSING TO THE SW. UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE HI
SINKING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND NEXT SHRTWV/SFC LO DIGGING SEWD
INTO NW ONTARIO ON MON...SW H925 WINDS ARE FCST TO INCRS TO 35-45KTS
BY 00Z TUE. H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE TOWARD -10C OVER THE W TO
-15C OVER THE E BY 00Z TUE IN THE INCRSG WAA...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RECOVER INTO THE TEENS OVER THE W AND UP TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE
E UNDER INCRSG HI/MID CLDS RELATED TO THE WAA.

MON NGT/TUE...SHRTWV AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LO MOVING INTO FAR NW
ONTARIO ON MON EVNG ARE FCST TO SLIDE SEWD TO THE NE OF LK SUP
DURING THIS TIME...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FROPA OVER UPR MI ON TUE
MRNG. SOME LIGHT SN IN THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN AHEAD OF
THIS DISTURBANCE WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI FM THE NW ON MON NGT AND
PERSIST INTO TUE MRNG BEFORE THE COLD FROPA. SINCE THE MSTR INFLOW
WL BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST IN THE
1.0-1.5 G/KG RANGE...AND VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WL NEED TO BE
OVERCOME...ACCOMPANYING SN ACCUMS SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED TO NO
MORE THAN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HIER POPS/QPF WL BE OVER THE NE CWA
CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK/LONGER DURATION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/AREA
OF STRONGER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. ALTHOUGH THE DGZ IS FCST TO BE
RATHER DEEP AND INCLUDE MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED UVV...STRONG WINDS
MIGHT BREAK UP THE DENDRITES TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. BUT THE SMALLER
FLAKES WOULD BE MORE EFFICIENTLY BLOWN ABOUT BY THE GUSTY VEERING
WINDS THAT WL BE OCCURRING UNDER THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT FCST AND
RESTRICT VSBY. WITH H85 THERMAL RDG OVER UPR MI ON MON NGT AND THE
GUSTY WINDS...EXPECT RELATIVELY HI MIN TEMPS AND NO NEED FOR MORE
WIND CHILL HEADLINES DESPITE THE GUSTY WINDS THAT WL MAKE THE AIR
FEEL COLDER. WSHFT TO THE NW FOLLOWING THE TUE MRNG COLD FROPA WL
DRAG ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS BACK INTO THE CWA IN THE AFTN...
DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -20C AGAIN BY 00Z WED AND ALLOWING FOR AT
LEAST SCATTERED LES.

TUE NGT/WED...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FCSTS H85 TEMPS TO FALL AS LO AS
-28C TO -30C ARND 12Z WED IN COLD NNW FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT CNDN HI
PRES MOVING TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. THERE MAY BE SOME LES OFF BREAKS
IN THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER...BUT THE BIGGEST THREAT WL BE WIND
CHILLS AT LEAST APRCHG ADVY CRITERIA AS H925 WINDS ARE FCST UP TO 30-
35 KTS DURING THE DESTABILIZING PERIOD OF CAA THAT WL DROP MIN TEMPS
BLO ZERO AGAIN.

EXTENDED...THE ARCTIC HI OVER SCENTRAL CANADA ON WED IS FCST TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY ON THU...
THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON FRI...AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
ON SAT UNDER SLOWLY RISING HGTS IN THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF
TROFFING OVER WRN NAMERICA. THE RESULT WL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY
WX. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LES MAINLY E OF MARQUETTE INTO THU
WHILE THE LLVL FLOW IS STILL NW...BACKING WINDS TOWARD THE W AND
THEN SW WL SHIFT ANY SN SHOWERS OUT INTO LK SUP. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST
TO MODERATE TO ABOUT -15C BY FRI/SAT...SO THERE SHOULD BE WARMING
DAYTIME TEMPS AT LEAST TOWARD 20F WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. BUT
FCST PWAT AS LO AS 0.05 INCH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME VERY LO OVERNGT
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IF THE MODELS SHOWING A FLATTER PRES GRADIENT/
LIGHTER WINDS ARE CORRECT. MORE CLDS MAY ARRIVE NEXT SAT IN ADVANCE
OF AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY EVENING)

EVEN WITH MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FROZEN OVER...THERE WAS STILL ENOUGH
HEAT COMING OFF THE LAKE TO LEAD TO SOME SCT LAKE EFFECT IN THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLIER TODAY.
AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAINS FOR
SUNDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LIMITED
BREAKS IN THE LAKE ICE. WITH THE SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SMALLER
FLAKES AND THUS MORE EFFECTIVE VISIBILITY REDUCERS...THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR KIWD/KCMX TO SEE REDUCTIONS TO IFR CONDITIONS. BUT...IT
WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE WIND DIRECTION WITH THE ICE COVERAGE. DUE TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE...ALSO DUE TO MODELS OVERDOING UPSTREAM
MOISTURE...OPTED TO LEAVE VISIBILITIES AT THOSE SITES AT LOW END
MVFR. AT KSAW...A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE POTENTIAL MOISTURE AND WINDS
NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE...HAVE JUST BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT
TO PRIMARILY KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

THE NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR IS CURRENTLY SURGING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WITH THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-30KTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BUT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WINDS
TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS
MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF GALES TO 35-40KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES
TOWARDS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST UP TO
30KTS AND REMAIN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS ON TUESDAY. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE STRONG HIGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR
MIZ001>007-009>011-013-014-084-085.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST MONDAY
FOR MIZ012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...MZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 220327
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
927 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

.UPDATE...WILL CONTINUE SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CWA
OVERNIGHT. SCT-BKN STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG ON ACROSS WEST IN
VICINITY OF ARCTIC FRONT. HOWEVER LOW LEVELS SUCCUMB TO STRONG
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. AREA OF FLURRIES AND ISOLD
-SHSN PICKING UP ALONG ARCTIC FRONT AND SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL AFFECT EASTERN AREAS
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK IN GOOD ORDER. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP
TO AROUND ZERO TO 2 BELOW IN THE WEST LATE TNGT RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS OF 15 TO 20 BELOW. THE RETURN OF THE BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL
KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUN ONLY IN THE 5 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE WITH
PERSISTENT COLD WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORY
STILL LOOKS LIKELY SUN NGT.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST WI TAF SITES IN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
MAIN ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS MAY BE BRIEFLY MVFR
WITH -SN BUT WL BE MOSTLY VFR WITH CLEARING TREND TNGT INTO EARLY
SUN.

.MARINE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF BITTERLY
COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH RES MODIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED ICE COVERING MUCH OF
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WOULD EXPECT SOME ICE GROWTH TO OCCUR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVED IN SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING ON LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS. THE 925MB
COLD FRONT LAGS BEHIND IN CENTRAL WI AS OF 3 PM. THE 925MB FRONT AND
STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE /DGZ/ WITH JUST ENOUGH OMEGA/UPWARD
MOTION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WI FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS. ONLY A
DUSTING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE NAM KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS CLOUDS IN PLACE
OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON UPSTREAM
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS... THAT APPEARS OVERDONE AND I
LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS AND OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND ZERO NEAR THE DELLS AND 10
ABOVE NEAR KENOSHA BY 12Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE TEMPS WILL STEADY OUT IN THE
MORNING AND RISE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY... WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. DESPITE STEADY NORTHWEST
WINDS... WIND CHILL TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO TOWARD
THE DELLS. NO WIND CHILL ADVISORY PLANNED FOR THE MKX FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL RETURN BY MONDAY. VERY WEAK UPPER CONVERGENCE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH VERY WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE LATER MONDAY. WEAK 700 MB DOWNWARD
MOTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH VERY WEAK UPWARD MOTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 700 MB RH REMAINS DRY WITH SOME MOISTENING NORTH AREAS
MONDAY. LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY.

850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING...BUT
VERY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TOWARDS IOWA BUT THEN DROPS SOUTH. AS A RESULT
THE WINDS MAY NOT DECOUPLE COMPLETELY SO WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN
AT PLAY IN THE ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE HIGH DROPS SOUTH MONDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY. MUCH OF THE WARMING IS ALOFT WITH A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 1 THSD FT EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
MOIST LAYER BELOW THE INVERSION IS VERY SHALLOW...SO STRATUS NOT
EXPECTED...JUST INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A NORTHERN TROUGH
PUSHING INTO WISCONSIN TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS WITH THE STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITHOUT THE PRIOR LEAD CYCLONIC VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

A BAND OF HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 925/850/700 MB SWINGS DOWN
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW IS NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NAM BRINGS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE BOTH DRIER...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF HAVING NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE THE LOW MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER SURFACE COLD HIGH NORTH OF MONTANA AND THE DAKOTA...
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH NORTH LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL AS IT WEAKENS AND A
SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

THE SURFACE COLD HIGH SAGS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS...WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON THE REGION. WITH
LIGHT WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE GFS LIFTS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE INTO THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF WAS SLOWER...BUT THE
12Z ECMWF IS NOW QUICKER THAN THE GFS.

AS A RESULT THE GFS BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW CLOSE TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BUT THE MAJOR DIFFERENCES OCCUR TO OUR SOUTH AND ALSO
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS LIFTING TO VFR TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND
THEREAFTER AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE AN AREA
OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONLY TRACE/DUSTING ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. GUSTS TO AROUND 23 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 212008
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
308 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

A GENERALLY QUIET MID-LATE FEBRUARY DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH
SEVERAL SUBTLE FEATURES AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MAIN STORY IS THE CONSISTENTLY GROWING ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR.
VISIBLE AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY GIVES A PRETTY GOOD VIEW OF THE
ICE COVER TODAY...WHICH ALMOST COVERS THE ENTIRE LAKE. THERE ARE A
FEW GAPS OR SLUSHY AREAS...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
SHORELINE...NEAR ISLE ROYALE...OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND FINALLY A
GAP JUST TO THE EAST OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. WITH THE PROPER WIND
DIRECTION (AROUND 340-350)...THERE WAS A STRONGER BAND THAT
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUED INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTED TO BACK AND LIMIT THE FETCH OVER THE
WATER. THAT STRONGER BAND DID LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF FLUFFY
ACCUMULATION NEAR IRONWOOD...ALTHOUGH WEBCAMS INDICATED IT WAS VERY
LOCALIZED. THESE VERY LOCALIZED AND NARROW BANDS ARE THE NORM WITH
THE SMALL AREAS OF BREAKS IN THE ICE. THAT CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE
PARTS OF THE KEWEENAW AND ESPECIALLY ALGER COUNTY WHERE THE WIND
DIRECTION IS PARALLEL TO THE LONGER STRETCH OF SLUSHY ICE OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE. WHERE THESE BANDS HAVE BEEN LOCATED...THEY HAVE
BEEN PRODUCING UP TO AN HALF INCH AN HOUR ACCUMULATION...BUT ARE
ONLY AROUND 2 MILES WIDE. ELSEWHERE...DIURNAL CU DEVELOPED AGAIN
OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND HAS LED TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...2PM TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 10 DEGREES AT KIWD/KCMX AND INTO THE LOWER 20S
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FARTHER SOUTH INTO WISCONSIN...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. AS THOSE PUSH EAST...THINK THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCES THROUGH MID EVENING.

EXPECT THE NARROW BAND LAKE EFFECT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO STAY
FAIRLY STEADY STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING (ALTHOUGH
THE DIURNAL CU WITH DIMINISH)...AS THERE ARE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT. BUT AS MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE LAKE EFFECT COVERAGE TO
EXPAND. THIS IS DUE TO THE 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND -17C AT
THE PRESENT TIME TO AROUND -26C AT 12Z SUNDAY. WITH THAT AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR...EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH HEAT FLUX THROUGH THE THIN ICE
AREAS AND ICE FREE GAPS TO PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING FOR LAKE EFFECT.
THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS THOUGH. FIRST...MODELS SHOWING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE BELOW 800MB DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS FROM THIS MORNING...WONDERING IF THAT IS A LITTLE OVERDONE
ON THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF. VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON ISN/T
SHOWING MUCH OF ANYTHING FOR CLOUDS IN THAT AREA OF ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS...WITH THE 12Z GEM HAVING THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT IN THAT AREA...WITH TREND THAT DIRECTION
FOR MOISTURE POTENTIAL. THIS KEEPS POPS GENERALLY IN THE ISOLATED-
SCATTERED REALM FOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS FOR TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF THE OPENINGS IN THE ICE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES OVER THE
AREA...SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL LIMIT INVERSION HEIGHTS TO THE 3-5KFT RANGE.
IF THERE WAS MORE OPEN WATER...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
STRONGER BANDS CAPABLE OF REACHING 7KFT...BUT THE LIMITED OVER THE
LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY LOCALIZED BANDS IN CHECK. THAT
COLD AIR WILL TRANSITION THE CLOUD FROM BEING WITHIN THE DGZ AND THE
FLUFFIER FLAKES SEEN TODAY TO A SMALL/FINE FLAKE SNOW. WHILE THAT
WILL KEEP THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK...IT WILL HELP TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES WITHIN THOSE NARROW BANDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BUT AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN GUSTINESS ACROSS THE AREA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW BLOWING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WITH THE CONCERNS IN THE MOISTURE AND EXPECTED VERY LOCALIZED NATURE
OF THE BANDS...WILL KEEP TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY FROM
A DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES IN THE FAVORED NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND
LOCATIONS.

AS THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL PICKUP
SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING LOWS FOR
TONIGHT (TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO) AND WITH THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE EXISTING WIND
CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. THEN WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WILL SEE MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN AT OR BELOW ZERO FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES...MAYBE REACHING 6
DEGREES...WILL BE OVER FAR SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY. THE RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT OUR OFFICE FOR FEB 22 IS -5...WHICH IS THE
FORECASTED HIGH FOR TOMORROW. BUT...WHEN FACTORING IN WHAT THE
TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY BE AT MIDNIGHT (AROUND ZERO)...WE SHOULDN/T
BREAK THAT RECORD. SINCE THE WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY TOMORROW...WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE WEST STAY IN THE -20S AND
FEEL CARRYING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY INTO MONDAY MORNING IS FINE
OVER THE WEST. OVER THE EAST...STILL HAVE WIND CHILLS RISING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SINCE
THEY QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO CRITERIA DURING THE EVENING...OPTED TO
EXTEND THOSE ADVISORIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TO SIMPLIFY THINGS
AFTER DISCUSSING IT WITH THE LONG TERM SHIFT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

THE PERSISTENT 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A BRIEF
RIDGE SETTING UP AROUND 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY OFF THE
20/18Z GFS. THE 20/18Z AND 21/00Z ECMWF WERE LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH
THE RIDGING...RESULTING IN MORE OF A GENERAL W-E FLOW.

INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS WITH WINDS GREATER THAN 10-15KTS...TO INCORPORATE SOME OF
THE SMALLER SNOW FLAKES THAT HAVE BEEN VERY AFFECTIVE AT REDUCING
VIS.

AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WILL START OUT THE PERIOD
AT 12Z SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW
ZERO...AND NW WINDS AROUND 5-10KTS PUSHING WIND CHILLS TO -25 TO -
30F CWA WIDE. WIND CHILL ADVISORY POSTED EARLIER THIS MORNING WILL
GO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT MENOMINEE /WHICH MAY BE A BIT
WARMER/. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE W HALF
OF UPPER MI THROUGH SUNDAY AND ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LOOK FOR A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES ON WAA SW WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY...AND TOP OUT TUESDAY IN THE 20S. 850MB TEMPS
WILL BE ABLE TO WARM TO AROUND -10C AT 12Z TUESDAY.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF COLD WAVES WILL NOT BE TOO FAR
BEHIND...HOVERING OVER ONTARIO TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE
500MB LOW. WHILE THE LOW ITSELF SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC...EXPECT THE COLD
AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -27C OVER UPPER MI WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST MORNINGS...THANKS TO
RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WINDS AND ONLY A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR W LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE THE INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE NEARLY FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR. CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS
IN THE ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
E OF MARQUETTE THROUGH WHITEFISH POINT...WHICH WILL SEE THE LONGEST
FETCH OFF ANY OPEN WATERS WITH THE N OR NW WINDS THAT WILL BE
DOMINATING MUCH OF THIS FCST PERIOD.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARLY STACKED
SFC-500MB LOW OVER N ONTARIO AT 06Z TUESDAY CROSSING JAMES BAY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WHILE THE GFS IS PAINING 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THE ECMWF IS LESS IMPRESSIVE. DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY LARGE SCALE CHANGES FROM THE CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND AT THIS
TIME...UNTIL A MORE STEADY SOLUTION IS ANTICIPATED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

EVEN WITH MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FROZEN OVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
HEAT COMING OFF THE LAKE TO LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT IN THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS SNOWBELTS. THE STRONGEST SNOW IS OCCURRING RIGHT AT
KIWD THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A
POCKET OF OPEN WATER OR SLUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE APOSTLE
ISLANDS. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A FETCH
TO LEAD TO VERY FLUFFY LAKE EFFECT OVER THE SITE. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS BACK MORE TO THE NW AND
A LESS FAVORABLE FETCH FOR THE SITE. AT THE OTHER TWO SITES...THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND LAKE INFLUENCES WILL
LEAD TO PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS.

AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAINS FOR
SUNDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LIMITED
GAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT. WITH THE SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SMALLER
FLAKES AND BETTER VISIBILITY REDUCERS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
KIWD/KCMX TO SEE REDUCTIONS TO IFR CONDITIONS. BUT...IT WILL ALL
DEPEND ON THE WIND DIRECTION WITH THE ICE COVERAGE. DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE...ALSO DUE TO MODELS OVERDOING UPSTREAM
MOISTURE...OPTED TO LEAVE VISIBILITIES AT THOSE SITES AT LOW END
MVFR. AT KSAW...A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE POTENTIAL MOISTURE AND WINDS
NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE...HAVE JUST BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT TO PRIMARILY KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEPARTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS LEADING
TO ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BRUSH THE AREA AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE...EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-30KTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BUT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF GALES TO 35-40KTS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS
THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES TOWARDS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30KTS AND REMAIN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS ON
TUESDAY. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS THE STRONG HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ SUNDAY TO NOON EST
/11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ001>007-009>011-013-014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KDLH 200921
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS TODAY AND LAKE EFFECT ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

SNOW WAS PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE NORTHLAND WITH SNOW REPORTED OVER
THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OUR CWA. AN AREA OF WAA WAS DRIVING MOST OF
THE LIFT THIS MORNING AND THAT WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TODAY AND GENERALLY
AGREE ON SNOWFALL FROM A HALF TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE THE LIGHTEST ON SNOWFALL. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DEEPER SATURATED LAYER IN THE MAX DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SPOTS. OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH VSBYS AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY AN OB OR TWO
REPORTING LESS THAN 2SM...AND SOME OF THAT MAY BE
BLOWING/DRIFTING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR
MOST AREAS TODAY. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE MOST OF THE SNOW FALL
THIS MORNING. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG A
PORTION OF THE NORTH SHORE WHERE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CAUSE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF ICE
PRESENT BUT IT WILL ONLY TAKE A LITTLE OPEN/THIN ICE TO ADD SOME
TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST...THEN
COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE HAVE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO WRING OUT SOME SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. WE DID INCREASE
POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT. WE ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO THE
ICE COVERAGE.

EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES TODAY.
IT WILL BE COLDER FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE 15 TO 20 OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

THE COLD WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHLAND WILL SEE LONG PERIODS IN WHICH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATE THE REGION...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. THERE IS NO POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
OPPORTUNITY IN SIGHT.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN COLD AS ANOTHER NW FLOW
BRINGS ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTH SASKATCHEWAN ON EARLY SUNDAY...WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE IOWA REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA AREA MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF -25 DEGREES OR COLDER DURING THIS
TIME.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NORTHERN CANADA. THIS BRING WARMER AIR TO THE
NORTHLAND...BUT TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL STILL BE
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND ITS COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

THE NORTHLAND WILL GET ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE
REGION...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SOME IFR CIGS/VSBYS AS WELL FOR A
TIME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 17 7 14 -18 / 90 20 10 0
INL 17 -7 4 -27 / 90 20 10 0
BRD 23 7 13 -19 / 80 20 10 0
HYR 17 9 18 -15 / 90 30 10 10
ASX 17 8 18 -13 / 90 30 20 20

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KAKQ 182124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
424 PM EST WED FEB 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING...
THEN OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. BAND OF SNOW SHWRS TO ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY END BY MIDNIGHT. KEPT A 2-3 HR
WINDOW OF LIKELY POPS WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA WITH AN AREA OF CHC POPS
BEHIND IT. ANY QUICK BURST OF SNOW COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK 1/2 INCH
OVER MOST OF THE FA...HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE ERN SHORE WHERE AN
UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. TIMING APPEARS TO BE 4-6 PM WEST OF
I95...5-7 PM I95 CORRIDOR...6-8 PM NRN NECK/MIDDLE PEN...7-9 PM ERN
SHORE...SERN VA/NE NC.

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP OFF INLAND BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. WIND
CHILLS HAVE BEEN FINE TUNED WITH THIS PACKAGE. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY
COLD AIRMASS AND FORECASTED WINDS...HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH
NOON FRIDAY. DOING IT THIS WAY TO INDICATE THE IMPACT THE COLD WILL
HAVE THURSDAY DESPITE WIND CHILLS GOING ABOVE ZERO FOR A FEW HOURS
THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE PIEDMONT...TO MID TEENS SE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THU/FRI. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FRIGID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. DANGEROUSLY
COLD AIR IS ON THE WAY...QUITE POSSIBLY THE COLDEST WE'VE SEEN OVER
OUR REGION IN QUITE SOME TIME (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). 12Z DATA
EVEN SUGGESTING SOME POTOMAC RIVER...CHESAPEAKE BAY STREAMERS THU
AFTERNOON. THINK IT WILL BE TOO DRY IN LOWER LVLS FOR ANY FLURRIES
TO OCCUR.

HIGHS THU IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS
LATEST BRUTAL COLD AIR SURGE WILL COME THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING...AS
SFC HIGH OVER KY SLOWLY BUILDS E. BEST CHC FOR WINDS TO DECOUPLE IS
WEST OF I95 AFTER MIDNIGHT AS 1032+MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVRHD THU
NGT/FRI MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE MOS GUID IS HAVING A HARD TIME
WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK...SO FORECASTED MINS WILL REMAIN BLO EVEN
THE COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF ZERO WEST
OF I-95 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST (AROUND 10 F AT SE
VA/NE NC COAST).

SUNNY BUT CONTINUED COLD WITH LESS WIND FRI DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS AGAIN UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. ANTHR VRY COLD NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SW. WINDS TURN SOUTH...BUT TMPS WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH
TIME TO DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES BEFORE BEGINNING TO RISE
LATE.

CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR SAT EVEN AT THIS POINT. MODELS SOMEWHAT
SLOWER AT BRINGING IN THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN SAT. (GFS THE FASTEST
IN THE MORNING...NAM A BIT SLOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. 12Z/18 ECMWF IS
THE OUTLIER WITH KEEPING SAT DRY ACROSS THE AREA AND MOST OF SAT
NIGHT). WILL GO WITH A MODEL COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND BRING N SOME
LIGHT WINTER PCPN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT MORN...AND OVERSPREADING
THE NRN HALF OF THE FA SAT AFTERNOON. RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. EVEN
AFTER THE COLD START...TMPS BY LATE IN THE DAY RISE INTO THE M-U30S.
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SAT EVENING. KEPT CHC TO
LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS TMPS REMAIN
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER FLOW REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS WRN CONUS RIDGE
THRU THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE
ERN CONUS TROUGH THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEKEND...AND A RETURN TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE OH VALLEY
INTO THE NE STATES SUN. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE NE
STATES...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL SWLY/RETURN FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE SUN AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT UVM FOR PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT SUN AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED
LIKELY POPS. WAA/THICKNESS RISES WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS...BUT HAVE
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE DUE TO LINGERING SNOW PACK. HIGHS GENERALLY
LOW-MID 50S. FRONT CLEARS THE COAST SUN NIGHT...BUT STALLS OFF THE
SE COAST AS WSW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE MIDWEST SUN NIGHT...AS COLD/DRY AIR SURGES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP TO PUSH OFFSHORE SUN
NIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP OVER THE
NE ZONES. THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THRU
MID WEEK...WITH SUPPRESSING THE PRECIP OVER THE SE COAST/GULF
STREAM. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...BUT KEEPS PRECIP
ALONG THE SE COAST MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE COASTAL BOUNDARY TUES. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR
UNCERTAINTY SE VA/NE NC MON NIGHT-TUES. AT THIS TIME...THERMAL
PROFILES AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP WOULD BE
FROZEN. SFC LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDS...BEFORE THE NEXT
CLIPPER FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDS.

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY
WITH AN INCOMING SCT DECK AROUND 4000FT AGL BY LATE THIS AFTN.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY EARLY EVENING AND
WILL EXIT THE COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AROUND
2000FT AGL AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN -SHSN BTWN 18/2300Z AND
19/0300Z. A TEMPO GROUP FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR VSBYS (1/2SM)
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30-35KT WAS ADDED THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SKIES CLEAR
QUICKLY AND A COLD AIR SURGE WILL COMMENCE. NW WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED (GUSTS 25-30KT) LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON
SATURDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CIGS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION.

.MARINE...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT ARCTIC FRONT LOCATES OVER THE PIEDMONT. WINDS GENERALLY SELY
AOB 15 KT...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. THE ARCTIC FRONT
BLASTS OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH FLOW BECOMING W-NW POST
FRONTAL. STRONG/STREADY LOW LEVEL CAA IN TANDEM WITH A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN
A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE WATERS. STRONG SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT AND GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AND GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 KT. FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY
AT THE ONSET OF CAA. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WLY COMPONENT TO THE
WIND AND SHORT DURATION HAVE PREVENTED AN UPGRADE TO GALE
HEADLINES. HAVE OPTED TO MONITOR AND ISSUE SMW AS NEEDED. AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF W-NW WINDS 20-30 KT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
THRU THURS NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NE COAST AND
1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EWD. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS TO 5 TO 9 FT TONIGHT THRU THURS NIGHT.
WAVES 3-5 FT...UP TO 6 FT IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. IN ADDITION TO
STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WAVES/SEAS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...ALLOWING WINDS TO
FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
OFF FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SAT WITH SLY FLOW
RETURNING. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS SUN...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

GALE HEADLINES IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS IN EFFECT THRU THURS
MORNING...WITH THE NRN WATERS (NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND) RUNNING
THRU FRI MORNING. SCA HEADLINES NOW IN EFFECT THRU FRI MORNING.

LATEST MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS AN AREA OF ICE IN THE
POCOMOKE SOUND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW ICE CHUNKS BREAKING OFF
INTO THE NRN BAY. STRONG W-NW WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ICE IN
THE SOUND...BUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE TEENS MAY ENHANCE THE ICE FIELD THRU FRI. WILL MENTION WAVES
IN ICE FREE WATER IN CWF.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN BLOWOUT TIDES. WATER
LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO 1.0 FOOT OR MORE BELOW MLLW
DURING THE LOW TIDE CYCLES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

.CLIMATE...
ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN THE TEENS. AT
RICHMOND...THE LAST TIME THERE WERE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS WAS BACK ON JAN 29TH-30TH IN 1966...WHEN
BOTH DAYS HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGS F.

THERE WAS ONLY ONE TIME THAT RICHMOND HAD A MINIMUM BELOW ZERO
AFTER FEBRUARY 11TH. THIS WAS A READING OF MINUS 1 ON FEB 28 IN
1934. THE LAST TIME RICHMOND HAD A LOW TEMPERATURE BELOW ZERO WAS
ON JANUARY 28 IN 2000 WITH A READING OF MINUS 1.

THE LAST TIME RICHMOND HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE ONLY IN THE TEENS
WAS FEB 4 1996...18 DEGS F.

THE LAST TIME NORFOLK HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE ONLY IN THE TEENS
WAS JAN 19 1994...13 DEGS F.

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES...

...THU 2/19....FRI 2/20
RIC... 27 IN 1903 30 IN 1947
ORF... 30 IN 1993 29 IN 1904
SBY... 25 IN 1993 24 IN 1959

RECORD LOW MIN TEMPERATURES

...THU 2/19....FRI 2/20
RIC... 10 IN 1979 3 IN 1979
ORF... 14 IN 1903 13 IN 1896
SBY... 9 IN 1936 3 IN 1979

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
MDZ021>025.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY
FOR NCZ012.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
NCZ013>017-030>032-102.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY
FOR VAZ048-049-060>083-085-087>090-092.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
VAZ095>100.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
VAZ084-086-091-093-094.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ654.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634-650-652-654-656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>638.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KAPX 160845
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
345 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD WITH A VERY
DRY AND COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. 00Z APX SOUNDING PWAT WAS AN
ASTOUNDINGLY LOW 0.02"...AND EARLIER CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE -15 TO -30F RANGE. THERE WAS
LITTLE IF ANY WIND AT THE TIME...SO WIND CHILLS DID NOT FACTOR
INTO THE FRIGID EQUATION. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE WASN'T MUCH
OF AN ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL TROUGHING ACROSS NRN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO. THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN HUDSON BAY...WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW INTO THE DAKOTAS. PWATS WITH THIS COLD
FRONT WEREN'T VERY IMPRESSIVE...INCREASED ONLY TO AROUND 0.15" AND
WAA/DYNAMIC FORCING FAIRLY WEAK. THERE WAS ONLY SOME LIGHT 3-6SM
SNOWS SEEN IN SW ONTARIO AND MN....AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MORE
EXCITING WEATHER WAS DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...WHERE A MUCH MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...AND SPREADING IT
EASTWARD.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

NOT TOO MUCH EXCITEMENT FOR NRN MICHIGAN. LIGHT WIND SCENARIO
IS KEEPING LAKE INSTABILITY OUT OVER THE LAKES...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND A SW
WINDS DEVELOPS. THIS WILL WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO PULL SOME OF THE
LAKE CONVECTION (CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES) BACK INTO PARTS OF NW
LOWER...GENERALLY LEELANAU COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO MANISTEE COUNTY.
THIS CONVECTION MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE
COUNTIES...IMPACTING MAINLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE. THESE SNOWS WILL
PROGRESS UP THE AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL
HAVE TO TRAVERSE MORE ICE...PER YESTERDAY AFETRNOON'S LATEST HI
RES MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WILL HAVE A LIMITING FACTOR ON
THE INTENSITY AND INLAND EXTENT OF THOSE SNOWS. DO EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME FLURRIES MAKING IT INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY/STRAITS
REGION. WINDS DO INCREASE ENOUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND RIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING...WHEN HE SFC COLD FRONT STARTS
TO MAKE IT'S WAY INTO NRN MICHIGAN. SYNOPTICALLY...WITH FAIRLY
WEAK FORCING AND PWATS AT ONLY 0.15"...CANNOT SEE MORE THAN A HALF
AN INCH ANYWHERE. ADD IN THE LAKES...AND COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES
SPREADING INTO MAINLY NW LOWER...AND ESPECIALLY IN LEELANAU
COUNTY...AND COUNTIES SOUTH. THIS IS WHERE THERE IS LESS ICE AND A
LONGER DURATION OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TOO...AS WAA DOES ALLOW MORE FAVORABLE H8 TEMPS/DGZ AND
LIFT FOCUSED RIGHT ON IT.

SO...CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PULLS THROUGH. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE 9F-16F RANGE WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN CLOUDS 0F TO 10F.
AT LEAST IT'S MORE TOLERABLE.

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015

ANYONE OUT THERE HAVE A "RETURN TO SENDER" STAMP I CAN APPLY FOR OUR
MID/LATE WEEK WEATHER? I LIKE A GOOD COLD AIR OUTBREAK JUST AS MUCH
AS THE NEXT WEATHER GEEK...BUT THIS PATTERN IS STARTING TO BECOME
LESS THAN AMUSING. AT LEAST IT'S A FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...FEATURING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
YET ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY (JUST A
SHADE SLOWER THAN EARLIER PROJECTIONS). THAT FEATURE WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY DEEP UPPER TROUGHING EGREGIOUSLY TRESPASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME DOWNRIGHT AMUSING 500MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING -50C INDICATIVE OF JUST HOW COLD THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
INTO MIDWEEK. OF COURSE...WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS SETUP IN
PLACE...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE PRIMARILY TEMPERATURES...THOUGH
WITH SOME REAL CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS -
PRIMARILY DOWNSTATE AS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES ABUTTING OUR CWA HAS
REALLY FROZEN UP OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST FOR A
TIME. HAVING SAID THAT...MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND IT IS VERY
INTERESTING TO SEE A HUGE HOLE IN QPF SIGNALS INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER...LIKELY INDICATIVE OF EXPANSIVE ICE COVER IN THE MODELS...AND
BACKED UP BY YESTERDAY'S HI-RES VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING LAKE
MICHIGAN FROZEN DOWN TO SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT. STILL...WITH
THAT SAID...SECONDARY TROUGH/LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH AXIS WORKING DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY CONNECT
US UP TO A BIT MORE OPEN (THOUGH NOT BY MUCH) LAKE SUPERIOR...AT
LEAST SUGGESTIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BETTER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS SLIDING DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER. HONESTLY NOT THAT
IMPRESSED WITH THE SETUP GIVEN ALL THAT ICE AND TRANSIENT NATURE OF
ANY LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE.

THE MORE INTERESTING WEATHER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
OCCUR PRIMARILY DOWNSTATE AS OUR DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVERHEAD.
SHARP LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC NATURE OF THE FLOW COUPLED WITH A LIGHT
WIND REGIME BELOW 900MB STRONGLY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOLOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY ONE OF SEVERAL LAKE-INDUCED SURFACE
TROUGHS...WITH A VERY STABLE SIGNAL FOR FORCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE DOWN INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER WHERE A PERIOD OF
INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS LOOKS QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUCKED
BENEATH AN AXIS OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THAT SNOW BAND MAY JUST
SKIRT FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (LOOKING AT YOU MANISTEE AND BENZIE)
BUT WITH A TREND FOR LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO LIKELY WORK IN BOTH FROM
ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN ICE COVER TO DICTATE LITTLE
MORE THAN SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. IN SUCH A MESOSCALE-DOMINATE SETUP...CONFIDENCE IS
NATURALLY LOW AND NEAR TERM UPDATES WILL BE REQUIRED...BUT HONESTLY
BELIEVE MUCH OF THE ACTION WILL RESIDE OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.
INSTEAD...WE WILL DEAL WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF VERY COLD AIR...AS H8
TEMPS DIVE BACK TOWARD -30C BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...SUGGESTING HIGHS
BACK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW ZERO BUT
HIGHLY DICTATED BY HARD-TO-FORECAST CLOUD TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015

INCREASINGLY QUIET WEATHER APPEARS ON TAP THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FIRMS UP ITS PRESENCE ACROSS
THE AREA. THAT SETUP AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT WINDS SHOULD RID MANY
AREAS OF ANY SNOW SHOWER THREAT WITH OFFSHORE CIRCULATIONS
DOMINANT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME EXTREMELY COLD READINGS ONCE
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD. ECMWF 2-METER
GUIDANCE ALREADY INDICATING SUB-MINUS 20 READINGS IN MANY
AREAS...AND PROVIDED CLOUD ISSUES DON'T CREEP UP...THIS LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD GAMBLE. AFTER THAT...LOOKING A BIT MORE "MILD" INTO THE WEEKEND
AS WE RELAX THE OVERALL DEPTH OF TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...THOUGH WITH A GOOD DEAL OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. AT THE MOMENT...THE MAJORITY
OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN THE
STREAMS FOR A MORE STRUNG OUT (BUT GULF MOISTURE-LOADED) SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THIS PATTERN DOES HAVE BETTER PHASING
POTENTIAL. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH IT ALL UNFOLD OVER THE COMING
DAYS. AFTER ALL...WE HAVE PLENTY TO KEEP OURSELVES BUSY UP UNTIL
THEN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015

VFR TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND SOME SHSN LIKELY AT PLN
MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXPANDING INTO TVC/MBL IN THE EVENING.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL
DRIFT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TO APPROACH LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN WI BY LATE MONDAY.
MID CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT. LOW-END VFR
STRATOCU WILL MOVE INTO MBL/TVC/PLN MONDAY...AS WEAK SW LOW-
LEVEL FLOW BEGINS. LAKE-EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE AT
PLN DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPANDING INTO TVC/MBL DURING THE
EVENING.

CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES MONDAY.

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KHUN 111008
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
408 AM CST WED FEB 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/EAST CONUS. THREE DISTINCT INTRUSIONS OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
ENTERING THE TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL RESULT IN A
COLD PERIOD FOR THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE VERY
LIMITED IN OUR AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST TWO FRONTS...HOWEVER A
DIFFERENT SETUP AHEAD OF THE THIRD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY ALLOW
FOR A HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EVENT. MORE DETAILS FOLLOW BELOW.

CHANGES ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE NE PAC
WHICH WILL FORCE A COLD PATTERN FOR THE TN VALLEY FOR THE UPCOMING
PERIOD. THE LATEST MULTI-SPECTRAL SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DEEP MOIST PLUME
EXTENDING INTO WRN CANADA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THIS IS FORCING
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
INTO THE UPR MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. GOES WATER
VAPOR AND MODIS AIRMASS IMAGERY INDICATE AT LEAST TWO PRIMARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PUSHING SWRD IN THIS REGION. THE LEADING EDGE IS
LIKELY A MIX OF NE PAC AND CONTINENTAL/CANADIAN AIRMASSES...HOWEVER
THE TRAILING AIRMASS IS MODIFIED ARCTIC. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
PUSH INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT...AROUND MIDNIGHT...WHILE THE
SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES ABOUT SIX HOURS OR SO LATER
EARLY THURS MORNING. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD DAY TODAY...TEMPS ON
THURS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA IN ASSOC/W THE COLD
AIRMASS AND CAN BE SEEN CURRENTLY IN SAT IMAGERY IN THE UPR
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
INSOLATION...HELPING TO SUPPRESS TEMP RISES THURS...BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES
AND/OR LGT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST...OVER PORTIONS OF EAST TENN AND
THE SOUTHERN APPS. HOWEVER...LIFT ALONG THE PLATEAU WARRANTS AT
LEAST A 20 POP MENTION FOR NOW.

AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVHD THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING...LOW
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID TEENS. A FEW OF OUR
NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH GOOD COLD AIR DRAINAGE MAY
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WHILE BELOW NORMAL...THESE TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE RECORD VALUES FOR THE 13TH (-11F FOR MUSCLE SHOALS AND 7F
FOR HUNTSVILLE).

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH YET
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. SUCCESSIVE
LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE TENDED TO DECREASE THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS
RESULTING TROUGH AND THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN OUR
AREA...PRIMARILY SHOVING THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. NEVERTHELESS...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ASSOC/W THIS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CROSS THE AREA PROBABLY BEGINNING SAT
AFTERNOON. A NARROW LINE OF MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY EVEN WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT CENTERED ARND 850MB MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA. A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ALTITUDES. HOWEVER...DRY AIR
ADVECTION AT/NEAR THE SFC MAY PREVENT ANY FLURRIES OR LGT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE SFC. THUS...NO MENTION AT THIS TIME IN THE
OFFICIAL FCST. TEMPS ON SUNDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW/MID 30S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS DESPITE THE PROSPECT FOR GOOD INSOLATION FOR MOST
OF THE DAY.

FURTHER STEEPENING OF THE RIDGE IN THE NE PAC WILL LEAD TO
REINFORCEMENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT EVEN THE LARGE SCALE DETAILS YET ARE
FAR FROM CERTAIN. 00Z LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A VERY SHORT
WAVELENGTH RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PAC...WHICH WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SFC CYCLOGENESIS THEN TAKES PLACE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND RESULTS IN SW-NE TILTING OF THE POLAR FRONT AND
STRONGER WAA OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS
OUT...THEN A RAPID WARMUP WOULD TAKE PLACE BEGINNING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AN INSPECTION OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWS A
WIDE RANGE OF SCENARIOS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
POLAR FRONT AND THUS THE MOVEMENT/TRACK OF ANY SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW.
SOME TRACKS ARE STILL TO OUR SOUTH. ALTHOUGH...SEVERAL ARE CLUSTERED
WITH TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA OR TO OUR NORTH...INCLUDING THE
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO AT THIS POINT PLACES THE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND
TN VALLEY REGION. THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT THIS
THINKING. AT THE ONSET OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALOFT ON MONDAY AFTN...TEMPS MAY BE BRIEFLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SOME SNOW FLAKES OR ICE PELLETS MIXING WITH RAIN. CHANCES APPEAR
SLIM HOWEVER...AND THE DETAILS OF THE FCST FOR THIS PERIOD ARE STILL
NOT CLEAR WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE. NEVERTHELESS...ROBUST
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER MAINLY FOR ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND DEEP/COLD ADVECTION BEGINS AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RA/-SN MIX
COULD BE POSSIBLE AND WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

KDW

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1119 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 2 KFT CONTINUES ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS HAVE MADE
IT INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHERE THEY MAY LINGER AROUND UNTIL
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.

STUMPF

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 58 30 35 16 / 0 10 10 0
SHOALS 59 29 36 15 / 0 10 10 0
VINEMONT 58 31 36 14 / 0 10 10 0
FAYETTEVILLE 55 29 32 13 / 0 10 10 0
ALBERTVILLE 57 32 36 20 / 0 10 10 0
FORT PAYNE 57 31 36 16 / 0 10 10 0

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 062223
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AKST FRI FEB 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS UNTIL THE MIDRANGE. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER YAKUTAT AND KODIAK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROUGH
IS BROADER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS. SINCE
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL RUNS IS JUST SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES...IN GENERAL WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE
THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...552 HPA BLOCKING RIDGE NEAR THE GULF OF
ANADYR IS SLOWLY BEING PUSHED TO THE WEST AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN
OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND RIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
A 501 DAM LOW MOVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MERGE
WITH THE 500 DAM LOW OVER YAKUTAT THAT FORMED IN THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OUT OF CANADA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT.
THE LOW OVER YAKUTAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON
TONIGHT AS A 497 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SHELIKOF STRAIT
TONIGHT. THE LOW OVER THE YUKON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. THE LOW OVER
THE SHELIKOF STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT OVER
SAND POINT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN LOOP BACK OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND MOVE TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARLY MONDAY. AS THE LOW
LOOPS BACK NORTH A 508 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVE WEST BEFORE MERGING WITH A LOW IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC. AT 850 HPA...20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM LIES FROM
POINT HOPE TO BETTLES TO DENALI AND BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIE
FROM BARROW TO KOTZEBUE TO BETHEL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
BELOW ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE 20 BELOW
ISOTHERM BEGINS MOVING BACK TO THE EAST AND WILL LIE FROM BARROW
TO RUBY TO HEALY AND BY MONDAY MORNING WILL LIE FROM BARROW TO
BETTLES TO TOK.

SURFACE...A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST FROM A
983MB LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE ARCTIC FROM A
1045MB RIDGE OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC COAST. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A 1042MB
CENTER MOVING TO JUST NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND AND A 1040MB CENTER
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ANADYR. A 1028MB CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH A 1026MB CENTER
DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS EARLY SATURDAY. A 965MB LOW
OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES WEST AND THE RIDGE OVER
RUSSIA BUILDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...AND THE RIDGE OVER THE YUKON
TERRITORY BUILDS...THE GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND WILL
STRENGTHEN. THE BUILDING RIDGES WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE WINDS OVER
THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AS A SECOND FRONT SWEEPS DOWN
FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CANADA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH TO THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA SO EAST OF NUIQSUT WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONE 203 AND 206. WINDS
KICKED UP A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED AND VISIBILITY IS DOWN
NEAR ZERO SO WILL UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD FOR ZONE 204 THIS
EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
STRENGTHENING WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST...WILL NEED TO ISSUE
SOME WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 201...202...AND 205.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE SATURDAY WITH THE WINDS COMING
DOWN...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWN.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WINDS INCREASING IN GENERAL AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH AND THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND WEST IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWN WIND CHILL VALUES
ARE FALLING. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES FOR ZONES
207...209...AND 213.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOME WINDS OVER THE HILLS TO 25 MPH DEVELOPING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL
OCCUR ON SUMMITS. COLDEST AREAS WILL CONTINUE BE THE FORTYMILE
COUNTRY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S BELOW.

4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...STILL LOOKING LIKE RIDGING WEAKENS TUESDAY
AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE.
THIS WILL PUSH WARM AIR NORTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK UP
TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR SLIGHTLY WARMER.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 06/1535Z AND NPP
VIIRS AT 06/1511Z CLEARLY SHOW THE STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PATCHY
STRATUS IS ALSO SHOWING UP IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WEST OF FORT
YUKON AND AROUND INDIAN MOUNTAIN. OUT WEST THE STRATUS CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN BERING STRAIT AND WESTERN ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. A
QUICK LOOK AT THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 06/1845Z NOT
SHOWING INDICATING MUCH AS FAR AS POOR CONDITIONS.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ218-AKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-
PKZ245.

SDB FEB 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 060305
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
905 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015

.UPDATE...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS A RESULT OF STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION...SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DUE TO
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTRIBUTING TO NEAR STEADY TEMPS THIS
EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MOVES FURTHER EAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW
DEGREES ONCE THE WIND SUBSIDES SO MAY LOWER A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
CURRENT LOWS.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...RECENT DESCENT TAMDAR SOUNDING INTO KMKE
REPORTED 46KT WINDS AT 1.5KFT RESULTING IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER 06Z AS
UPSTREAM WEAK SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SRN WI. OTRW...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU FRI. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION OF
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION LATER FRI INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT MAY RESULT IN STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT FRI NGT AS HIGHER SFC DEWPTS MOVE INTO THE REGION. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE LOW CIGS AT THIS POINT.

.MARINE...STATUS QUO ON ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVY. LAKESHORE
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO REPORT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE TNGT WHICH WILL ALLOW GUSTINESS
TO SUBSIDE.

HI RES MODIS AQUA IMAGE FROM TODAY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL ICE COVER
THROUGHOUT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING MAY
CAUSE SOME OF THE ICE TO THIN AND BREAK UP. WARMER TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD ALSO ERODE THE ICE COVER.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE OVER THE REGION SOUTH OF
WISCONSIN TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO WEAKEN GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DUE
TO A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE H5 SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE PROGGING ANY FORM OF
PRECIPITATION TO STAY NORTH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT ENTIRELY
IMPOSSIBLE FOR A FEW FLURRIES TO FALL IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IN OUR CWA.

SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL A STRONG
PUSH OF H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
BKN TO OVC SKIES SHOULD STICK AROUND OUR CWA TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES
DO LOOK TO REACH NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES AROUND THE CWA DUE TO DECENT
H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION. 12Z GFS MODEL IS PROGGING H85 TEMPERATURES
TO REACH 4-5C IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE EITHER THROUGH THE CWA OR JUST
EXITING AT 12Z SATURDAY. SREF PROB OF VSBY < 3 MILES JUMPS TO 80 PCT
IN WEST 1/2 BY 06Z SAT AND CWA WIDE BY 12Z...BUT MOS GUIDANCE HOLDS
VSBY IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE SO WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG FOR NOW.
RELATIVELY SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTH BELOW INVERSION AND LACK OF OMEGA
LEADS TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT REDUCED CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE SO LOWERED POPS. STILL COULD BE SLICK WHERE THE PATCHY
DRIZZLE DOES FALL WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS ELEVATED
STRENGTHENING THE INVERSION...WITH SOME DRYING SHRINKING CLOUD DEPTH
SO CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE LOWERS EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA. NO BIG JUMP IN SURFACE TEMPS DUE TO INVERSION BUT SHOULD SEE
READINGS SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 30S. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG
THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH COULD SEE VISIBILITIES IMPROVE FOR A TIME IN
THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

VARIABILITY IN TRACK AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW HAVING A BIG IMPACT
ON DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPES DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE
VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE. FORCING FOCUSES BETTER CHANCES TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SEE CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS
SRN WISCONSIN AS LOW APPROACHES AND WITH DEFORMATION ZONE CROSSING
AREA SUNDAY. CONSENSUS TEMPS BRINGS A WINTRY MIX...WITH MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS
IN THE NORTH WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM

COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WITH A PERIOD OF
NE FLOW BEHIND LOW SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER WITH JUST BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
AND CWA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A MIX OF SNOW
AND SLEET SOUTH...WITH ALL SNOW NORTH. MEAGER SNOW/LIQUID RATIONS
UNDER 10:1 WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH AND
UNDER AN INCH SOUTH WITH THE POSSIBLE MIX. QUIET BUT TURNING COLDER
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO BELOW ZERO LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KTS TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR NEAR 45 KTS WILL OCCUR AT 2000 METERS DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 3 AM FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD GUST BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER 3 AM
FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD TURN TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY LATER FRIDAY MORNING.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
UPDATE...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 052232
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
132 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z RUNS. INITIALIZED WELL AT 18Z
AT THE SURFACE. NO SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS UNTIL 132
HOURS OR SO. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF TO NUDGE THE
TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...553 HPA BLOCKING RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF ANADYR WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ARCTIC.
RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY WITH THE ZONAL FLOW EXTENDING EAST TO THE
BEAUFORT SEA TODAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MAINLAND AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY WILL DIG SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH A
511 DAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER YAKUTAT AND BECOMING STATIONARY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENS AND IS ABSORBED BY A 497 DAM LOW
THAT DEVELOPS OVER KODIAK ISLAND. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
80N TONIGHT AND DIVE SOUTH TO THE ARCTIC COAST BEFORE NOON FRIDAY
WITH A 504 DAM LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PRUDHOE
BAY...THE LOW DISSIPATES RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS ABSORBED BY
THE LOW OVER YAKUTAT...AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE
WEST OVER SOUTHERN SIBERIA AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE. AT 850 HPA...20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM LIES
FROM BARROW TO YAKUTAT THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO
CELSIUS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM WILL
MOVE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING TO LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO BETTLES TO
DENALI AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT 20 BELOW OR COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
LIE OVER ALL BUT THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM WILL
LIE FROM BARROW TO TOKSOOK BAY BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH 30 BELOW
OR COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND FORTYMILE
COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING SUNDAY.

SURFACE...1038MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY EXTENDS
NORTHWEST TO A 1035MB HIGH OVER PRUDHOE BAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
EAST WITH RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER YUKON FLATS. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH TO THE BERING STRAIT AND WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SECOND FRONT NEAR 80 NORTH FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE
ARCTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY...THEN SLOWLY DRAG EAST AND SOUTH
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING OVER YUKON TERRITORY. RIDGING FROM A 1041MB
HIGH OVER NORTHERN SIBERIA WILL EXTEND EAST OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA
AND SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY EARLY FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SUNDAY. A 1038MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN
SUNDAY MORNING. A 967MB LOW NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL
MOVE NORTH TO PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN
MERGE WITH A 976MB LOW THAT DEVELOPS NEAR YAKUTAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL DRIFT TO SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY
SATURDAY EVENING...THEN MOVES BACK TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND DISSIPATES. A STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SECOND FRONT DROPS
SOUTH AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE HILLS WILL PICK UP AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY AND THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...MOST ACTIVE AREA IN THE FORECAST
AREA. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE HAZARDS OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST AND
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AS THE SECOND FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
HIGH ARCTIC AND WINDS INCREASE. NOT MUCH SNOW WITH THE FRONT SO
BLIZZARD POTENTIAL IS PRETTY LOW AND WINDS WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL.
WILL GO WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 203 AND 206.
KEEPING THE WIND CHILL FOR ZONE 203 BUT THAT MAY HAVE TO BE
MORPHED INTO SOMETHING ELSE LATER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SATURDAY. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...THEN COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS THE FRONT DIVES SOUTH.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLING TEMPERATURES AS THE
NORTHERLY FLOW KICKS. SOME PATCHY STRATUS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT
AND OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CEILINGS TO ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND AND MAY CREEP EAST OVER THE BERING STRAIT COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLDER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOME WINDS OVER THE HILLS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLDEST AREAS WILL BE IN THE
FORTYMILE COUNTRY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S BELOW.

4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY AND BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. WARMING
TREND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 05/1308Z SHOWS
SOME STRATUS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST...WITH SOME EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING STRAIT AND OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND
WEST OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH MOVEMENT BUT
IT MAY DRIFT OVER THE BERING STRAIT COAST. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY
ALSO BE SOME STRATUS OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS TO THE WEST OF
FORT YUKON. THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THERE IS SOMETHING IN THOSE AREAS.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ207.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ218.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SDB FEB 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KLOT 041955
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
155 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015

.UPDATE...
1032 AM CST

GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN VERY GOOD SHAPE...WITH BANDED SNOW
AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING. SURFACE OBS INDICATE MODERATE SNOW WITHIN THE BANDS OF
MORE REFLECTIVE RADAR RETURNS...WITH VISIBILITY 1/2-3/4 MILE
NOTED IN SEVERAL SFC OBS FROM THE IA/MO BORDER REGION THROUGH THE
PONTIAC AREA RECENTLY.

ANALYSIS OF MORNING RAOB AND MODEL DATA INDICATES FORCING IS
LIKELY BEING MAXIMIZED THIS MORNING...WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
PROVIDED BY MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS
AS WELL AS ANOTHER DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
STREAK TO OUR WEST...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING IN 600-700 MB LAYER AND THE RESULTING VERTICAL AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION...WAS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE STRONGER BANDING SEEN IN
RADAR RETURNS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA.

GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GRADUAL WEAKENING OF F-GEN
SUPPORT INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SHIFTING IT MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE STRONGER UPPER MIDWEST SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST
AND AMPLIFIES THE LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH EARLIER FORECAST THINKING...SO OTHER THAN
EXPANDING HIGHER POPS INTO AREAS WHERE LIGHTER SNOW IS FALLING...
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST OR SNOW AMOUNTS WHICH
APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND AFOREMENTIONED VISIBILITY
OBSERVATIONS.

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
336 AM CST

THROUGH THURSDAY...

FAST MOVING BUT POTENTIALLY HARD HITTING SNOW EXPECTED TODAY
FOLLOWED BY BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AWAY
FROM THE NORTHWEST INDIANA AND THE CHICAGO URBAN CORRIDOR.

FIRST ON THE DOCKET IS SNOW. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 120KT+
300MB JET STEAK OVER THE DAKOTAS IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF
THE SLIGHTLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN LAKES TODAY WITH JET
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO NEARLY 140KT AS IT EXITS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE JETLET IS PROGGED TO EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN WI TO UPSTATE
NY BY 18Z PLACING OUR CWA IN THE SWEET SPOT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION.
DEEP TROPOSPHERIC THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
JET STEAK AND DEVELOPING DEEP F-GEN FIELD SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID
EASTWARD DEVELOP OF THE SNOW OVER NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.

COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS SYSTEM...GUIDANCE IS MUCH STRONGER AND DEEPER
WITH THE F-GEN. MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY ARE JUST A TICK WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL SEE
POCKETS OF NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV WITH THE WARM SIDE OF THE F-GEN
CIRCULATION...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A FAIRLY STRONG AND SOMEWHAT NARROW
BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP. OMEGA IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAY AND PEAK OMEGA VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY CLOSELY
COLLOCATED WITH THE PRIME DGZ TEMP ZONE...WHICH RAISES THE THREAT OF
MORE EFFICIENT HIGHER RATIO SNOWFALL WITHIN THE BAND. LEANED HEAVILY
ON HIGHER RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION OF MESOSCALE BANDING TO DEVELOP...WHICH THESE MODELS
SHOULD TEND TO RESOLVE BETTER.

GIVEN WE SAW BRIEF SNOWFALL RATES >1IN/HOUR YESTERDAY WITH 1/4SM
SNOWS AND THE SETUP LOOKS EVEN BETTER TODAY...SEE NO REASON THAT WE
WONT HAVE A REPEAT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES DEVELOP WITH THE BANDING
AGAIN TODAY WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY...THE MESOSCALE BANDING LOOKS TO ALIGN A BIT BETTER WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIP WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LONGER RESIDENCE TIME UNDER THE HEAVY SNOW BAND FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW ACCUMS IN THE GRIDS TO 2-5" RANGE SOUTH OF I-80
AND HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER WX ADV. WHILE AMOUNTS ARE ON THE LOWER
THRESHOLD OR JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD...FELT THE POTENTIAL FOR
+SN AND RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR MADE IT EASY TO JUSTIFY THE HEADLINE.
NOT EXPLICITLY FORECASTING THIS TO OCCUR...BUT IF THE HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST THEN IT WOULD NOT TAKE
TERRIBLY LONG FOR THE BAND TO STALL OUT TO HAVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
PILE UP TO LOCALLY AROUND 6 INCHES WHICH IS REASONING FOR INCLUSION
OF LOCALLY HEAVIER WORDING IN WSW.

THE SNOWS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE CWA BY 23-00Z WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND T/H X-SECTIONS SHOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
RAPID CLEARING TAKING PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG 1038MB ARCTIC
HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE CORN BELT THIS EVENING WITH MODEST NW WINDS
USHERING IN BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS...AIDED BY THE DEEP AND IN
MANY CASES REFRESHED SNOW PACK. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO BUILD EAST TOWARD N IL AND AM CONCERNED THAT WINDS COULD
LARGELY DECOUPLE...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TANKING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE TYPICALLY COLD DRAINAGE AREAS LIKE THE FOX AND ROCK RIVER
VALLEYS. HAVE CONTINUED TREND FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF UNDERCUTTING
LOW TEMP GUIDANCE TONIGHT WITH DOUBLE DIGIT SUB ZERO LOWS FORECAST.
IT WOULD TAKE VERY LITTLE WIND TO RESULT IN ADVISORY WORTHY WIND
CHILLS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPS/WIND SPEEDS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO JUMP ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW...WOULD RATHER LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS MAKE FINAL CALL ON.

IZZI

.LONG TERM...
336 AM CST

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIR ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA LATER THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MILDER ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEP SNOWPACK WILL UNDOUBTEDLY RETARD
OUR WARM UP LOCALLY...THOUGH TEMPS DO LOOK TO EVENTUALLY CLIMB TO
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING BEGINNING THE VERY SLOW MELTING
PROCESS OF THE FOOT TO FOOT AND A HALF OF SNOW THAT IS ON THE GROUND
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHER THAN SMALL CHANCE OF SOME FZG
DRIZZLE/FOG FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH THE WARMER AIR MOVING INTO LOOK
FOR DRY WX THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD SIDESWIPE US LATER
IN THE WEEKEND WITH SOME LIGHTER PRECIP WHICH COULD TAKE ABOUT ANY
FORM GIVEN THE SPREAD IN FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES THAT FAR OUT.
AFTER TONIGHT/THURSDAY'S COLD SNAP LOOK FOR A RETURN TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (DRIVEN ALMOST
ENTIRELY BY THE MUCH ABOVE AVG NIGHTTIME LOWS).

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES REDUCING VSBY TO IFR.
* NNW/NW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

BAND OF HEAVY SNOW HAS SET UP SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...STRETCHING FROM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA. MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CHICAGO
TERMINALS REDUCING VISIBILITY GENERALLY INTO THE 1-2SM
FRAME...THOUGH A FEW BANDS HAVE RESULTED IN VSBY BRIEFLY 1/2 TO 3/4
SM. THE BETTER FORCING IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE BETTER SNOW TO AS WELL...WITH CONDITIONS
STARTING TO IMPROVE AFTER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SNOW SHOULD END
ALTOGETHER AROUND MID AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO HIGHER
END MVFR IF NOT VFR. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY IN THE 320-340
RANGE REST OF TODAY WITH GUSTS PUSHING 20KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY THIS EVENING
TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK
AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN THIS EVENING.

BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TIMING/VSBY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS STAYING AT OR BELOW 20 KT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS.

BMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/WX NIL. SW WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR/WX NIL. SW WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR/WX NIL DURING THE DAY. CHANCE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E WINDS.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. NE WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL. NE WINDS.

TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL. S WINDS.

KREIN

.MARINE...
154 PM CST

MAIN MARINE CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWEST/WEST GALES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF MORE MODEST NORTHEAST-EAST
FLOW ALSO APPEARS ON THE HORIZON THIS WEEKEND.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND
HELPING TO SLOWLY INCREASE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. A
PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WILL AFFECT
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OR SO OF THE LAKE...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HIGH CENTER OVER THE PLAINS MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES THURSDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
UP AGAIN QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...AS THE HIGH SPREADS SOUTH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKES
ACROSS ONTARIO. THE RAPID PRESSURE FALLS WILL LEAD TO A QUICK
INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS DURING THE DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW-END GALES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH AND
FAR SOUTH ENDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THIS TREND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS...THUS HAVE ELECTED TO HOIST A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS
FROM 3 PM CST THURSDAY THROUGH 3 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN
DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
CROSSES THE LAKE.

LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SAGGING TO THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER LOW THEN LOOKS TO TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SET
UP A PERIOD OF MODESTLY STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW...DEPENDING UPON
THE ULTIMATE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER ONTARIO.

FOR THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS...CURRENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR IL...EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR IND. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ICE SEEN IN MODIS POLAR
ORBITER SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY IT MAY NOT MATTER MUCH...
BUT WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER SCA FOR WINDS BY THURSDAY EVENING. WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ALLOW CURRENT ONE TO PLAY OUT AND ALLOW
MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO ASSESS THE DURATION OF LESS THAN SCA CRITERIA
THURSDAY.

RATZER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023 UNTIL 3 PM
WEDNESDAY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 5 PM
WEDNESDAY.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 5 PM
WEDNESDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL NOON THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 040928
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
428 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015

EXACT DETAILS WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN
EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT. NW WIND LES IS BEING IMPACTED
BY SHEETS OF ICE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. LOOKING AT MODIS IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS MADE THAT DIFFICULT...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS EXTENSIVE
ICE COVER S-SSE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THIS LOOKS TO DECREASE
LES AMOUNTS/COVERAGE BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING.
ADDITIONALLY...ICE COVER OVER THE ERN LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG
LAND BREEZE/CONVERGENCE ZONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MUNISING AND
WHITEFISH POINT...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

THAT COVERS SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY...AS FOR WHAT IS GOING ON NOW WE
ARE SEEING LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIP FORCED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA AND NW WIND LES RAMPING UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAS
CROSSED LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS RESULTING IN LITTLE CONTRIBUTION TO ACCUMULATIONS.
MEANWHILE...LES WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS 850MB TEMPS DECREASE
FROM AROUND -20C CURRENTLY TO AROUND -27C BY 00Z THU. AS THE COLDER
AIR COMES IN...THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE LESS IN THE DGZ SO SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 20 TO 1 BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BOOSTING LES AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS INCREASE
TO AROUND 11KFT. WITH MORE LIMITED SNOW RATIOS...THINK THAT VIS
REDUCTION FROM THE SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND BLOWING SNOW /GUSTS TO 35MPH
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR/ WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD DURING THE EVENT. HAVE
GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ROCKLAND AND HOUGHTON UP TO 7
INCHES TODAY AND NEAR GRAND MARAIS UP TO 6 INCHES. OF COURSE...THESE
AMOUNTS /ESPECIALLY OVER THE E/ ARE VERY DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG AND
WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE SETS UP SO AMOUNTS COULD EASILY BE
GREATER...MAINLY OVER THE E. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
HEADLINES.

SHOULD SEE A STEADY DIMINISHING TREND TO LES FROM W TO E TONIGHT AS
A SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...LEADING TO REDUCED
INVERSIONS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRIER AIR. HAVE KEPT SNOWFALL IN
THE FORECAST ALL NIGHT FOR THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW AND E OF
MUNISING AS WINDS WILL ARC ENOUGH ACROSS THE LAKE TO FAVOR SNOW IN
THESE AREAS. AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3-4 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR GRAND MARAIS AND 1-2
INCHES BETWEEN ONTONAGON/ROCKLAND AND HOUGHTON TONIGHT.

TEMPS WILL DROP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 0C /LAKE SHORE/ TO -15C /INTERIOR W/ RANGE TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
WIND CHILLS READINGS OF -20 TO -25...BUT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND VALUES WILL BE BORDER AT WORST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL LIKELY BE FALLING MODERATELY IN SOME
LOCATIONS WITH THE FAVORABLE INVERSION HEIGHTS (RISING TO 10KFT).
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS)
MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION QUICKLY LOWERING AND WINDS BACKING...LEADING TO LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...COULD SEE
A COUPLE INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
WIND LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING. OVER THE EAST...MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO AND THE ICE ALONG THE EASTERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AIDING IN INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE DOMINATE BAND DEVELOPING BETWEEN GRAND MARAIS
AND WHITEFISH POINT. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON PINNING DOWN THE
EXACT LOCATION...BUT WILL SHOW SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS (TOWARDS 3
INCHES) DURING THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR TO LARGER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
LAYER LOCATED ABOVE THE DGZ AND PRODUCING SMALL FLAKES. WHILE THIS
WILL BE EFFECT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES IN THE BAND...THE WEAKENING
WINDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE IMPACT OF THE BLOWING SNOW OUTSIDE OF
THE BAND. WITH THOSE BACKING WINDS AND LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL PROVIDE GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THAT AREA (TEENS BELOW ZERO). WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT...DON/T EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH WIND TO SUPPORT
WIND CHILL HEADLINES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO.

MUCH OF THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DEPARTS THE AREA. THIS WILL SHIFT OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT
NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THAT QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (AND
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH) DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WILL SHOW LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THAT AREA...BUT AT LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA. THE QUICK DEPARTURE OF THE
WAVE WILL GIVE A VERY QUICK BREAK OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN TURN
THE LOCATION OF THE BEST MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOVING
ACROSS PART OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...SHOULD SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTH AND ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT (TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT
ON SATURDAY). MODELS ARE STILL VARYING ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY (FROM A HIGH IN
CENTRAL CANADA)...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT
COVERAGE HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH KEEPING
INVERSION HEIGHTS BELOW 4-5KFT...DON/T EXPECT THE AMOUNTS TO BE TOO
MUCH BUT WILL STILL SHOW HIGH CHANCE AND LOW LIKELY VALUES FOR THE
FAVORED NORTHERLY WIND AREA (ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS).

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT (MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY
LAKE EFFECT OCCURRING UNDER THE VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
SUNDAY. THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC AND THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLOWLY SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE
WINDS TO VEER ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO PUSH ANY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
OFFSHORE. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL JUST HAVE SILENT POPS FOR
THAT PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015

AT KCMX...APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH WED EVENING. INCREASING WINDS WED MORNING WILL
ALSO FURTHER REDUCE VIS DUE TO BLSN.

AT KIWD/KSAW...AS WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THIS
WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME OVERLAKE WIND TRAJECTORIES. EXPECT -
SHSN TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD WHERE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FALL TO IFR. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT KSAW. WED EVENING...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KIWD AND KSAW WITH DRIER AIR COMING IN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015

NW WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN BACK SW AND
STRENGTHEN ON THU AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH THAT PASSES LATE THU NIGHT
AND FRI. THE SW WINDS MAY GUST TO GALE FORCE AT TIMES THU
AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO 15-25KT
OUT OF THE N FOR SAT. WINDS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE
INTO SUN AS THEY VEER EASTERLY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-
003-006-007.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ266-267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KRLX 030605
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
105 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CONTINUING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA AS SEEN ON RADAR
AND SFC OBS. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO INTRODUCE SOME CLEARING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND WV TO OUR NORTHEAST SECTIONS. REST
OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
625 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. WILL EXPERIENCE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WINDS
ACROSS PARTS OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT...SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND NOT COUNTY AVERAGE. THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH SHSN CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
UPPER TROF AXIS WAS MOVING THRU THE MOUNTAINS AT 18Z. THIS HAS
BEEN SERVING TO ENHANCE THE SNOW...WITH A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN
INTENSITY ONCE THE TROF AXIS PASSES. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS AND THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS FROM HERE ON OUT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP ADVISORY FOR THE N MOUNTAINS
GOING. ELSEWHERE...THE SHSN WILL BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE BEFORE
ENDING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WORKING
STEADILY THRU OH AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING WITH MANY PLACES SCT OUT OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT
THE SHSN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO WIND DOWN AFTER 06Z. THE STRATOCU
MAY TRY TO REFORM ACROSS SE OH LATE.

THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE W OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH RESULTED IN LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FOR TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RELAX WITH MODEST WAA
ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF INTO NC WITH A
LIGHT SW WIND DEVELOPING. TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED. OVERALL...EXPECT
A GOOD RECOVERY S ZONES...BUT REMAINING COLD ACROSS THE N.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OFF TO THE E RIGHT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ALLOWING A SWRLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO TAKE OVER. WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...SHOULD SLIP BY JUST TO THE N OF
THE FCST AREA TUE NT INTO WED.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW GETS DRAGGED THROUGH THE
AREA WED NT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS STILL BACK NEAR
CHICAGO AS THE SFC FRONT IS CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SPELLS THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR SNOW LATE WED NT INTO THU. AT THIS POINT...AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE LIGHT GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF A WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT
TO OUR S...BUT THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE N.

WE DRY OUT THU MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE ARCTIC AIR TAKES OVER.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED VERSIONS OF THU MET AND MAV FOR LOWS TUE
NT...WHICH MAY OCCUR EARLY IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW. BLENDED IN
THE MET FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER HIGHS IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ON WED...THE MAV WAS HIGHER STILL. FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE
COLD ADVECTION WED NT INTO THU...USED A RAW NAM/GFS BLEND WITH GFS
BASED MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND THEN DERIVED LOWS WED NT AND
HIGHS THU FROM THERE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON COLD AIR BEHIND A SYSTEM
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO A SYSTEM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
TIMING AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR BEHIND EACH SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...USED A BLEND OF THE GEFS/NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
FOR THE FORECAST.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW STRATO CU...EVIDENT IN MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES...CONTINUING TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. SOME CLEARING IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGES AND SFC OBS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO INCLUDING PKB.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THIS AREA
FROM THE WEST. CODED MVFR CEILINGS UNDER LIGHT SNOW AT
BKW...HTS...AND CRW. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH 09Z...PERHAPS PERSISTING OVER EKN AND BKW THROUGH 12Z.
VERY LIGHT OR LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH THESE SNOW
SHOWERS.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE VFR SOONER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE TUE 02/03/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M H H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 021241
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
341 AM AKST MON FEB 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
INITIALIZED VERY WELL AT 06Z. ALL AGREE ON A WARMING TREND
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY THEN A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT WEEKEND BUT
ARE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF IT COOLING BEGINNING
TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL
USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE SCARCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
ARCTIC SO WILL LEAN ON THE NAM FOR COVERAGE AND NUDGE WITH THE
OTHER MODELS TO GET PROBABILITIES.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...558 HPA RIDGE EXTENDS WEST TO BRISTOL BAY
THEN NORTHEAST OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE IS
SPLIT AS A 530 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE BERING STRAIT THIS
MORNING AND DROPS SOUTH OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION TONIGHT THEN
DISSIPATES EARLY TUESDAY. THE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE ARCTIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER THE
MAINLAND WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING TO EAST
OF BARROW THIS AFTERNOON...TO MACKENZIE BAY BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AS RIDGING FROM THE
559 DAM HIGH IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BUILDS BACK OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. A SECOND MAJOR SHORTWAVE OVER
WESTERN SIBERIA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN JUST EAST OF BARROW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND TO MACKENZIE BAY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT 850
HPA...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ZERO TO 12 BELOW CELSIUS BELOW WILL
BEGIN TO COOL WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE TO 12 TO 30 BELOW CELSIUS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THEN WARM SLIGHTLY BEFORE WHAT MAY BE A MAJOR COOLING
TREND OVER THE WEEKEND THOUGH MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON JUST HOW
COLD.

SURFACE...1038MB HIGH LIES OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS
MORNING ...AND A 1043MB HIGH LIES OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON
TERRITORY...RIDGING EXTENDS WEST TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO CANADA LATER TODAY. A 1010MB LOW IN THE
CHUKCHI SEA IS MOVING EAST THIS MORNING...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER PRUDHOE BAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 1015MB LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO BRISTOL BAY AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE
GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND
THE LOW AS A 1035MB HIGH OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC MOVES OVER THE
ARCTIC PLAIN LATE TUESDAY...THE HIGH THEN MOVES EAST.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
SPREADING EAST AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE ARCTIC. HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. CLEARING BEGINS IN THE WEST
EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE DROPS INTO THE ARCTIC PLAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES BETWEEN TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW WITH THE
LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH THE SNOW ENDING
FROM THE NORTH AS THE LOW MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY AND DISSIPATES.
SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH AND BE CONFINED TO
AREAS WEST OF THE NULATO HILLS. INLAND AREAS WILL BE CLEARING
THIS MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME CLOUDS TRANSITING THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR.
MOSTLY CLEAR BY TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS AROUND DELTA JUNCTION
AND ALONG THE TANANA RIVER AS THE TANANA JET HAS KICKED IN...BUT
WINDS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND. SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE EAGLE
AREA AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR SOME OF THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES ARE ALSO
ON A DOWNWARD TREND. TEMPERATURES START A COOLING TREND AND WILL
FALL 15 TO 35 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS

4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEPARATION...BUT
THEY ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME CONCENSUS TEMPERATURES GOING DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND STAYING COLD INTO NEXT
WEEK. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE TO THE ARCTIC COAST EVERY
COUPLE DAYS SPREADING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE EVENTS. WEST COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WILL REMAIN QUIET.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 02/0839Z SHOWS
A LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA
SOUTH TO NUNIVAK ISLAND AND EXTENDING WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
IT IS CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS
FROM 02/0930Z. NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT IN THE STRATUS.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SDB FEB 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 011236
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
336 AM AKST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 48 HOURS...THEN THE
CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 90 HOURS ON THE MAJOR
FEATURES. ALL AGREE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY THEN
A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER A LOT ON WHAT
WILL HAPPEN NEXT WEEKEND AS THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED AGAIN AND ARE
KEEPING IT COLD AND MAKING IT COLDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING THE COLD AIR OVER THE
AREA...SO WILL LEAN QUITE A BIT ON THE OTHER MODELS AS THEY SEEM
MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LOW MOVING NORTH IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. FOR TEMPERATURES WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND JUST
NUDGE THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECASTS. A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH
NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION WISE IN THE SHORT TERM SO WILL JUST USE A
BLEND TO COME UP WITH A CONCENSUS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE STATE WITH 556 DAM
CENTER OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH
CENTER WILL WEAKEN TO 549 DAM AS IT MOVES OVER KING SALMON BY
MONDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES EAST OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AT 545
DAM BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A 561 DAM RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER
THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA. A SHORTWAVE OVER SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO
THE BERING STRAIT BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A 529 DAM CENTER
DEVELOPING OVER THE BERING STRAIT. THE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTON SOUND IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...THEN TO BRISTOL BAY MONDAY
NIGHT AS IT DISSIPATES. RIDGING FROM THE BERING SEA WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY NIGHT THEN ROTATE SOUTH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST BEGINNING MONDAY
MORNING. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SIBERIA
TODAY AND MOVE TO WRANGEL ISLAND BY MONDAY EVENING...THEN OVER
BARROW BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND TO BANKS ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ZERO TO 16 BELOW
CELSIUS BELOW WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...THEN BEGIN A COOLING TREND.

SURFACE...1046MB HIGH OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS MORNING
EXTENDS WEST TO A 1034MB HIGH IN THE BERING STRAIT. THE RIDGE
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT. THE TROUGH
WILL SPLIT WITH 1010MB LOW AND FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC
COAST...AND A WEAKER FRONT WITH A 1014MB LOW DROPPING INTO THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION AND DISSIPATING. THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ARCTIC WILL STRENGTHEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
BEGINNING TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO
THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO AND THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN. A 1041MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
SPREADING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST BEGINNING OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH. AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE EASTERN COAST...WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO ISSUE SOME
HAZARD PRODUCTS FOR THE AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL NOT BE UNTIL TUESDAY. WARMER NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...THEN THE COOLING BEGINS IN EARNEST. WINDS NEXT 24 HOURS
GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH AND WILL SWING FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
BIG PATCH OF STRATUS WILL BE WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...AND THAT WILL BRING LOW
CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES TO MOST OF THE AREA.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS FROM THE SEWARD
PENINSULA NORTH THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO HANG OVER
THE AREA. WILL BE BOOTED OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT IF IT DOES NOT
DISSIPATE BEFORE THAT. WEAK LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE BERING STRAIT
TONIGHT WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE
COASTAL AND ADJACENT AREAS...BUT IT WILL IN MOST CASES NOT BE
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PRIESTS INLAND WITH WINDS
ALONG THE COAST BECOMING NORTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR
MOST AREAS. A LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
UPPER YUKON FLATS AND STRETCHES TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY WILL
BE A PROBLEM. WILL KEEP THE STRATUS AROUND AS IT DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE EXPANDING AT THIS TIME AND THERE APPEARS TO BE NO REASON FOR
IT TO DISSIPATE.

4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...COOLER THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE STATE AS COLD AIR SINKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEYOND THAT NOT MUCH
FAITH IN THE MODELS AS THEY CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON WHETHER IT
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL OR WELL BELOW NORMAL COLD MOVING IN TO THE
AREA.

SATELLITE...LARGE AREAS OF STRATUS FROM THE YUKON RIVER NORTH AND
WEST CAN BE SEEN ON THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 01/0755Z AND
IS CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS FROM
01/1030Z. NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT IN THE STRATUS.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.

SDB FEB 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 311342
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
442 AM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAIN TODAY OUT TO AROUND 120 HOURS.
SHORT TERM IS VERY GOOD WITH STRONG CONCENSUS ON MAJOR FEATURES
AND POSITIONS OVER THE FIRST 60 HOURS. ALL AGREE ON A WARMING
TREND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY THEN A COOLING TREND. MODELS DIFFER A
LITTLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THEY HAVE FLIP
FLOPPED AGAIN AND ARE PUSHING A WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY ON
AGAIN. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND JUST NUDGE THE CURRENT
SHORT TERM FORECASTS. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION WISE IN THE SHORT
TERM SO WILL JUST USE A BLEND TO COME UP WITH A CONCENSUS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND WITH A 561 DAM HIGH
OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDDLE
YUKON VALLEY AT 557 DAM SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
COOK INLET MONDAY MORNING AT 551 DAM. 502 DAM LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE RAPIDLY EAST IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL SHARPEN UP
AND MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT BY MONDAY MORNING AS IT EXTENDS FROM
AROUND 75N TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY ZERO TO 16 BELOW CELSIUS BELOW WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
AND BE IN THE ZERO TO 8 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE ALCAN BORDER AND WEST COAST.

SURFACE...1054MB HIGH OVER THE UPPER YUKON RIVER WITH RIDGE
EXTENDING WEST TO A 1046MB HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AND
A 1040MB HIGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER
MUCH OF THE STATE BUT WILL BEGIN TO TILT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN MOVE TO LIE OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY
MONDAY MONDAY MORNING WITH A 1040MB CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON
TERRITORY AND A 1032MB CENTER OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS. A 1004MB
LOW NEAR 76N 140W WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS MORNING TO BANKS ISLAND
BY LATE EVENING. A 1004MB LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE
TO WRANGEL ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE EAST TO THE
CHUKCHI SEA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST
ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND SLOWLY DRAG ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CONDITIONS HAVE CALMED A BIT BUT
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ON OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST
UNTIL LATE EVENING. COLD FRONT IS STALL DRAGGING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY SO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING AND ENHANCE SOME SNOWFALL
OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHWEST COAST. STILL SEEING
SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SO TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED WEST OF BARTER ISLAND SO WILL
CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN ZONE 206.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...EVERYTHING HAS SETTLED DOWN AND
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AROUND UNTIL MONDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO FALL ON MONDAY.

4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...WARMER THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD
SPELL ON THE WAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO FLIP FLOP SO IT IS POSSIBLE IT MAY CHANGE AGAIN.

SATELLITE...LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AROUND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
THE ARCTIC COAST IS EASILY SEEN ON THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS
AT 31/0852Z AND IS CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY
PRODUCTS FROM 31/1030Z. THE STRATUS OVER NORTON SOUND AND THE
BERING STRAIT CAN ALSO BE CLEARLY SEEN ON BOTH PRODUCTS.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240.

SDB JAN 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 301217
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
317 AM AKST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION OF THE 00Z MODEL RUN. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAJOR FEATURES IN THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY MINOR DEPARTURES AS WE GET INTO THE
MIDRANGE. MODELS ALL AGREE ON THE TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO WILL USE A BLEND AND NUDGE THE CURRENT SHORT
TERM FORECASTS. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS...LEANING ON THE
NAM AND SREF FOR PRECIPITATION.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
FROM A 561 DAM CENTER OVER THE BERING SEA WILL FLATTEN OUT WITH
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THE FAST FLOW WILL ALLOW A
499 DAM LOW TO ZIP EAST OVER THE ARCTIC WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER BANKS ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH
CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL BERING SEA OVER NORTON SOUND BY
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AT 555 DAM BY
SUNDAY MORNING...AND OVER COOK INLET BY MONDAY MORNING AT 548 DAM.
A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE TO
THE BERING STRAIT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY 8 TO 18 BELOW CELSIUS BELOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE RISE
AND BE IN THE ZERO TO 16 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE BY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE.

SURFACE...1045MB HIGH HAS SETTLED IN OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS
WITH A 1040MB HIGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A 997MB LOW 250NM
NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO BE NEAR 77N
150W BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM
THE LOW IS ON THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY REACHING THE BARROW AREA LATE THIS MORNING...THE
PRUDHOE BAY AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXITING THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DRAG IN BEHIND THE LOW AND HANG UP
IN THE BROOKS RANGE. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE WARM
FRONT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING 30 TO 50 MPH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
COAST...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST...BUT STILL BE IN THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TAPERING DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE
NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF AS THE FRONT PUSHES
TO THE EAST. EXPECT SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES TO THE EAST SO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED LOOK GOOD. WINDS COME UP SHARPLY
IN ZONE 204 LATER TONIGHT SO WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THAT AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...NORTHWEST FACING UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
WILL SEE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW COOLING TREND.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FROM KIVALINA NORTH AND THROUGH
THE BERING STRAIT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG TODAY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH. WINDS TAPERING DOWN LATER THIS EVENING
AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING. SNOW ON THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS
RANGE IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS TODAY INTO MID DAY SATURDAY WILL TAPER
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN ZONE 208 AND 2
TO 4 INCHES IN ZONE 217. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE
BERING STRAIT. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM
THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SNOW SOUTH OF CHICKEN IN THE UPPER
TANANA VALLEY AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD WILL HANG ON THROUGH TODAY THEN
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS.

4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...CONTINUED WARMER THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD SPELL ON THE WAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. MODELS
HAVE CHANGED THINGS UP A BIT AND IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE COLD
WILL HANG ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

SATELLITE...A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE WEATHER SYSTEMS
IN THE AREA SO THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS AT
30/1000Z AND MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 30/0950Z NOT MUCH
HELP...BUT SOME OF THE STRATUS IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY CAN BE
SEEN AS FAR WEST AS THE DOT LAKE AREA USING THE PRODUCTS IN
COMBINATION.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ205.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ207-
AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

SDB JAN 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 291215
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
315 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...00Z RUN INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS. THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 72 HOURS
BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP. WILL USE A BLEND
OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE BASED ON THE NAM WITH A NUDGE
FROM THE SREF.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A TROUGH OVER THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST AS
RIDGING PUSHES BACK ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE WEST WITH A 559 DAM
CENTER OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
CENTER WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 DAM LOW NEAR THE SEA
OF OKHOTSK THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST BY NOON FRIDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC TO BANKS ISLAND
BY SATURDAY NOON. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE BERING
STRAIT SUNDAY NIGHT. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE FROM
THE CURRENT 12 TO 22 BELOW CELSIUS BELOW. EXPECT THEM TO BE IN THE
ZERO TO 16 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE.

SURFACE...1005MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST BUT
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. 1043MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON
FLATS THIS MORNING WITH A 1040MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.
A 985MB LOW IN SIBERIA WILL MOVE INTO THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC THIS
EVENING WITH A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO THE BERING
STRAIT TONIGHT AND MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY EAST TO BANKS ISLAND BY
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA AND PERSISTING FOR AROUND 12 HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUE EAST. WINDS INCREASING OVER
THEN NORTHWEST COAST TO 30 TO 50 MPH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY.
NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS. WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONE 201 AND 205
STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE ANYTHING
FOR AREAS FURTHER EAST SO WILL LEAVE THAT TO THE NEXT SHIFT. SNOW
AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT BUT SOME AREAS
COULD SEE AROUND 2 INCHES...THOUGH IT WILL BE HARD TO TELL WITH
ALL THE WIND. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BE
15 TO 30 DEGREES WARMER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA
FROM KIVALINA NORTH IT WILL BE REALLY QUIET. EXPECT SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS IN THAT AREA SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THAT AREA OF ZONE 207. ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...NOT MUCH HERE SOME FLURRIES EAST
OF THE TOK CUTOFF IN ZONE 226...OTHERWISE NO PRECIPITATION OR
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS. WARMING TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS.

4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...WARMER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
ANOTHER COLD SPELL ON THE WAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WE
SEE SOME NEAR 40 BELOW CELSIUS AIR AT 850 HPA MOVE OVER THE WEST
COAST. THIS SPELL LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SHORT WITH WARMER AIR AND
WEAK CHINOOK FLOW BEYOND THAT.

SATELLITE...A LITTLE STRATUS SHOWING UP ON THE MODIS 24 HOUR
MICROPHYSICS AT 29/0904Z IS CONFIRMED BY THE BARROW OBSERVATION
IS MOVING EAST. A FEW MORE PATCHES EARLIER JUST NORTH OF PRUDHOE
BAY AND BARTER ISLAND LOOK TO BE MOVING EAST AS WELL. THERE IS
ALSO SOME STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AT 29/0725Z
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ205.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

SDB JAN 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KGRR 140819
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
319 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO THE MID 30S BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE
TURNING COLDER NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING.

A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. NEITHER FRONT WILL BRING ANY SUBSTANTIAL SNOW WITH
IT.

LATEST IR LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS ENCROACHING ON THE CWA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND WEST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE PRODUCED SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS FROM LAKE ERIE AND THOSE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY MOVING OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA. ADDITIONALLY WINDS HAVE BECOME SWLY OVER WESTERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AND THAT HAS PUSHED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FROM THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LAKE TO THE WESTERN CWA. FLURRIES AND EVEN A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW CWA... OUT OF
THESE CLOUD LAYERS TODAY.

TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER AFTER WHICH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY.
BUFKIT RH PROFILES REVEAL A VERY SHALLOW LAYER WITH NOT MUCH LIFT
WITHIN IT. THUS NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT DRY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015

NO BIG STORMS IN THE EXTENDED BUT A COUPLE CLIPPERS WILL BRING SOME
SNOW FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE FIRST CLIPPER ROLLS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SFC LOW CENTER PASSES WELL NORTH OF
LOWER MICHIGAN SO ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT. KEPT IT ALL SNOW FOR
NOW BUT THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME MIX WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
EVENING.

SFC RIDGING SHOULD BRING FAIR AND COLD WEATHER MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT THEN ANOTHER CLIPPER ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2015

PATCHY IFR HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. ONE AREA WAS SOUTHEAST
KJXN...AND TRACKING NORTHWEST. THUS I FEATURED THE IFR THERE
FIRST. ELSEWHERE THE FORECAST LOOKS MORE CHALLENGING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
LOW CLOUDS. STILL ENOUGH POTENTIAL THERE TO INCLUDE KBTL IN THE
IFR RANGE...WITH KAZO EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE LOW CLOUDS.
AVIATORS SHOULD CHECK THE LATEST CONDITIONS IF FLYING TONIGHT.

CLOUDS OVER LAKE MI...WILL LIKELY CLIP KMKG BY 12Z...BUT LESS
CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL REACH KGRR AND KLAN EXISTS.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015

MODIS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM TUESDAY REVEALED A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE NSH TO BE COVERED IN ICE. WHAT WAVES EXIST IN OPEN
AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TONIGHT WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SCA CRITERIA.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015

WE WILL BE CONTINUING THE ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR SCOTTVILLE AND
SMYRNA TODAY. THESE LOCATIONS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE ADVISORY
LEVELS BUT THE GOOD NEWS HERE IS THAT BOTH LOOK TO HAVE
STABILIZED. SMYRNA HAS SLIGHTLY FALLEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE SCOTTVILLE HAS LEVELED OFF. THIS MAY BE A SIGNAL THAT
SCOTTVILLE MAY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT LEVEL AND POSSIBLY BEGIN A
SLOW FALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COLD THROUGH MID
WEEK BEFORE BEGINNING A GRADUAL UPWARD CLIMB THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY TOUCH 40 BY SATURDAY WHICH WOULD HELP TO MELT
SOME OF THE ICE BUILD UP. THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS COLDER
AIR IS POISED TO MOVE BACK IN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL THE RECENT STABILITY IN RIVERS IS A GOOD SIGN...BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS FOR ANY FLUCTUATION AS WE
GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...93

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 172252
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
152 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN AND INITIALIZED WELL AT 12Z AGAINST THE
SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH THE LOW PLUS/MINUS 1MB. NAM HAS HANDLED THE
PRECIPITATION WELL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SO WILL STICK WITH THAT
FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE HANDLED
TEMPERATURES WELL SO WILL COBBLE TOGETHER SOME BLEND OF THE
MODELS AND CURRENT TRENDS THIS GO AROUND. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MODELS FOR THE WINDS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE STATE BUT WILL BREAK DOWN AND FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE 493 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA WILL SLIDE
NORTH ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO BE OVER KOLYUCHIN BAY BY
MONDAY MORNING...THEN REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE BERING STRAIT WEDNESDAY. A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER THE
RIDGE TONIGHT TO BE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON THIS EVENING...THEN THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUES EAST AS IT
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. A 523 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE SITKA AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AT 850 HPA...MODELS
CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP AROUND ON WHETHER OR NOT WE ARE GOING TO SEE
ANY GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS WEEK IN THE INTERIOR...WILL GO
WITH NO AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GOOD COOLING OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS MIDWEEK.

SURFACE...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A
975 MB LOW OVER NORTON SOUND THIS MORNING AND A 981 MB LOW OVER
BRISTOL BAY WILL MORPH INTO A SINGLE LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT
THIS EVENING AT 978 MB...THEN PINBALLS AROUND A LITTLE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT
TO A DEVELOPING 999 MB LOW NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. A FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST THIS
EVENING TO LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO RUBY TO RAINY PASS...THEN FROM
POINT LAY TO ALLAKAKET TO KANTISHNA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AS IT CONTINUES EAST SUNDAY EVENING. A
1004 MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOVE OVER THE
MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY SUNDAY...THE OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE BY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER THE
BEAUFORT SEA MONDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND NORTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY FALL OFF AND
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL END ADVISORIES HERE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ZONE 201 WHICH WILL HOLD ON TILL LATER THIS
EVENING. VISIBILITIES MAY STILL GO BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES...BUT
NOT FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIODS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE ARCTIC THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AT BEST
WILL NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY
TONIGHT. SNOW TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND
TONIGHT AND ENDING BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE
LOW BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE BERING STRAIT/CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA...EXPECT BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE BERING STRAIT
AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND IN THE COOL AIR BEING PULLED SOUTH BEHIND
THE LOW. TEMPERATURES OVER THE COASTAL AREAS DOWN A FEW DEGREES
WITH THE COOL AIR ADVECTION...INLAND AREAS COOLER STILL AS THE
BUBBLE HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES
ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT INLAND WITH WINDS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS DIMINISHING TO
TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE HERE...WITH THE
DECAYING FRONT MOVING THROUGH EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS AND NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER...MAYBE SOME
FLURRIES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THERE...BUT NOT GOING TO PUT
ANY IN THE FORECAST SINCE PROBABILITY IS SO LOW. SOME COOLING OF
TEMPERATURES BUT NOTHING TOO DRAMATIC. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT.

SATELLITE...SPORT NPP VIIRS/MODIS 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 17/1804Z
AND 17/1849Z CONFIRMS THE BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH THE DECAYING
OCCLUDED FRONT THAT IS MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC THIS MORNING. THE
GOES MVFR PROBABILITY AT 17/2030Z SHOWS A PATCH OF LOWER
CONDITIONS AROUND COLVILLE RIVER AND PRUDHOE BAY THAT IS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH BLOWING SNOW AND SNOW. OUT WEST THE VAST AREAS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FOR LOW CLOUDS...SNOW AND FOG.

COASTAL HAZARDS DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SDB JAN 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 152230
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
130 PM AKST THU JAN 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CONTINUES WITH ALL THE MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. NAM WILL AGAIN BE THE
PREFERRED MODEL FOR THE SHORT TERM FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE CONTINUES TO LIE UP THE INTERIOR WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA TO THE YUKON TERRITORY THEN WEST TO THE
GULF OF ANADYR THEN NORTHWEST TO A 540 DAM RIDGE OVER SIBERIA. THE
RIDGE IS SPLITTING OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA TONIGHT AS 503 DAM
LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWEST AND A 507 DAM LOW OVER
THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. BY
FRIDAY MORNING A TROUGH WILL LIE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WITH
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN INTERIOR EAST. THE
LOWS OVER THE BERING SEA WILL COMBINE BY LATE FRIDAY INTO A 497
DAM LOW OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE NORTHWEST TO THE BERING STRAIT
AND BECOME QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE UP THE WESTERN FACE OF THE RIDGE AND OVER
THE TOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IMPACTING THE WEST COAST.
THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT BEGINNING SUNDAY AND MAY ALLOW THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR. AT 850 HPA...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM AIR OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE RIDGE
PERSISTS. COLDER AIR MOVES TO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BERING SEA AND AS THE RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR.

SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE AROUND 958 MB
LOW 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS
THE LOW MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING WITH TROUGH OF LOWER
PRESSURE DEVELOPING UP THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA. WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN THE INTERIOR WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE ALL OVER THE MAP
TODAY NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE AS THEY RISE AND FALL WITH THE CHANGE
OF THE WINDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED 20 TO 30 DEGREES IN SOME
AREAS AS THE SOUTH WINDS KICK IN THEN FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES WHEN
THE WINDS TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR DIE DOWN. TROUGH UP THE WEST
COAST WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK
TROUGHING OVER THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC COAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
INTERIOR...OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE WEST COAST AND BROOKS RANGE/ARCTIC COAST. STRONG
GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH TO NORTON SOUND AND THE BERING
STRAIT PUSHING THE STRONGER GRADIENT NORTH INTO THE THE CHUKCHI
SEA...OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AND CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. CHINOOK
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT NOT TOO STRONG...AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE IT FALLS APART.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA WILL KEEP WINDS UP. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING SO
TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE...HOWEVER WITH THE WIND COMES BLOWING
SNOW THAT WILL VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...AND EVEN LOWER IN OTHERS...SO WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ALL ZONES STARTING THIS EVENING. 20 TO 40
MPH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL TAPER DOWN
TO THE AROUND 15 MPH BY SUNDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STRONG WINDS...BLOWING
SNOW...SNOW...CHANCE OF RAIN...A MIXED BAG FOR SURE ON THE WEST
COAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS EVENING IN
THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...OTHERWISE WEAK COOLING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL MAKE IT ALL SNOW. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE BERING
STRAIT COAST AS WELL AS NORTH OF KIVALINA AS THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER THOSE AREAS. STRONG WINDS AROUND NORTON
SOUND SOUTH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION WISE. AS THE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE COAST ON FRIDAY
EVENING EXPECT MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE YUKON
DELTA...NULATO HILLS...NORTON SOUND...AND THE SEWARD PENINSULA
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND...THE KOBUK AND NOATAK
VALLEYS. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SOUTH OF KOTZEBUE SOUND WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CHINOOK FLOW ACROSS THE RANGE WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WEAKEN SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS NEAR
THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND AROUND DELTA JUNCTION WILL GUST TO
AROUND 45 MPH AT TIMES. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE
INTERIOR...SOME FLURRIES IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS...FORTYMILE
COUNTRY AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTH OF
THE YUKON RIVER WHICH WILL SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALL OVER...NEAR THE
ALASKA RANGE IN WINDY AREAS THEY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO NEAR 50
DEGREES...WHILE NORTH OF THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND FREEZING.

COASTAL HAZARDS DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

SATELLITE...GOES PROBABILITY PRODUCTS AT 15/2030Z SHOW A VAST AREA
OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA...BERING STRAIT...AND MUCH
OF THE BERING SEA. IFR AND LIFR PRODUCTS ONLY SHOWING SOME POOR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. SPORT NPP VIIRS 24 HOUR
MICROPHYSICS AT 15/1841Z CONFIRMS THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG NEAR THE
NORTHWEST COAST. SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 15/2037 SHOWS
SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OBSCURING THE ARCTIC COAST...SO NOT MUCH HELP UP THERE RIGHT NOW.
LATEST PASSES DO NOT COVER THE BERING SEA SO NO DATA AT THIS TIME
OVER THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ213.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ207.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-
AKZ206.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SDB JAN 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 142148
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1248 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. MODELS INITIALIZED WELL
AGAINST THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. A LITTLE SKEPTICAL IN USING THE
GFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE SO WILL LEAN MAINLY ON THE
NAM FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

ALOFT...575 DAM RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE WEST COAST FROM OREGON TO
THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY TO A 541 DAM HIGH OVER THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA TODAY AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS
IT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. A COL WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA AS
THE RIDGE STRETCHES OUT AND A 507 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE
ARCTIC THURSDAY EVENING WILL MOVE OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA THROUGH SUNDAY THEN DRIFTS NORTHWEST OVER THE BERING
STRAIT BY MONDAY MORNING. A 506 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC TODAY AND MOVES OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY
MORNING BECOMING STATIONARY...THEN DISSIPATES BY SATURDAY MORNING.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE NORTH IN THE FLOW OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BUT THEY ARE BEING DAMPENED OUT BY THE RIDGE. AT 850
MB...POOL OF ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS AIR WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE TODAY AND SLOSHES OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN
THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY FLAT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE AROUND A 962MB LOW
SOUTH OF SAND POINT TODAY WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY MORNING AT
967MB. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO 975MB WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING UP THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE INTERIOR AND STRENGTHEN A BIT TONIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES
TO THE ALASKA RANGE AND LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE WINDS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN AS THE SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE RANGE AND THE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AND WEAKENS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR...BUT GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TODAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE ARCTIC
AS LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC PUSHES NORTH A LITTLE AND THE HIGH
OVER THE ARCTIC REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY. EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT EVENTUALLY PEAKING ON
FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING DOWN. THIS WILL BRING SOME VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW TO AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND MAY
WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THOSE DAYS. NOT MUCH ELSE GOING
ON TODAY...GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 14/1715Z AND
THE SPORT MODIS MICROPHYSICS RGB PRODUCT AT 14/1523Z NOT
INDICATING ANYTHING IMMINENT. THERE IS A PATCH OF STRATUS OVER THE
BEAUFORT SEA THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AND MAY IMPACT THE AREA FROM
PRUDHOE BAY EAST TONIGHT IF IT STAYS TOGETHER. TEMPERATURES ON THE
RISE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...QUIET TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT.
BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE RAIN...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
LOWER YUKON DELTA...PRIMARILY ZONE 214 AND 215...FRIDAY MORNING
AS THEY GET SOME 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO CELSIUS BEFORE
COOLING BEGINS. EXPECT WINDS OVER THE BERING SEA AND STRAIT TO
CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. STRONG WINDS ON ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST MAY BE GUSTING TO
AROUND 60 MPH WITH BLOWING SNOW CREATING VISIBILITY ISSUES BY
LATE THURSDAY SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE AREA.
ALSO...EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE STRAIT ALL THE WAY
TO POINT HOPE AND POOR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW SO WILL ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF KIVALINA.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. A
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL PUSH
NORTH...BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH IN THE
FORM OF PRECIPITATION AS IT IS CHINOOKED OUT. NORTH OF FAIRBANKS
SOME AREAS WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE VERY
PATCHY. WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT AND IN
THE DELTA AREA...EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 40S THURSDAY.

COASTAL HAZARDS DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ213.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

SDB JAN 15

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK68 PAFC 191425
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
525 AM AKST MON JAN 19 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER THE BERING
STRAIT WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS IS REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE WITH A WEAK LOW JUST SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND A
SECOND WEAK LOW JUST NORTH OF SHEMYA. THE 300 MB IS SHOWING A 90
KNOT ZONAL JET STREAK LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL BERING
SEA THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION EXTENDING SOUTH
IN THE WESTERN GULF IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY
IS SHOWING MOSTLY STRATUS IN THE GULF. THE SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY WAS PICKING UP THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. THE EASTERN GULF AT 500 MB IS
SHOWING A CLOSED LOW LOCATED OFF THE COAST NEAR SITKA. THE
SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A WEAK LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF SITKA
WITH THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS SHOWING UPPER END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE OTHER KEY FEATURE IS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR COLD BAY. THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH AND THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE HAS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE TROUGH JUST EAST OF COLD BAY THIS MORNING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A NORTH PACIFIC LOW ENTERING
THE GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM/GFS MODELS TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER EAST IN THE EASTERN GULF. WHILE...THE GEM-REG/EC MODELS
TRACK THE LOW MORE TOWARDS THE WEST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE GULF.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN MOVES INLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE COMPLEX NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE EC MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE HAD
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANGES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS COOK INLET...MAT-
SU...AND THE KENAI PEN WITH A MIXTURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.
GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE
ON TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS...HOWEVER SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG MAY REFORM OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TUE NIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALSO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AND
GIVE RISE TO BRISK OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND EASTERN
KENAI PENINSULA TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP
MOST LOCATIONS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A WEAK
SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES OVER KODIAK ISLAND
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN
RANGES THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
THROUGH MID WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
INTO THE NORTHERN BERING AND DISSIPATE TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...RATHER
QUIESCENT WEATHER FOR THE BERING SEA WILL BE THE DOMINANT MODE AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE BERING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. NEAR GALE FORCE EASTERLY WINDS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TUESDAY AS A NORTH PACIFIC
FRONT MOVES APPROACHES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MAJOR PLAYERS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAIN MUCH THE SAME. A
LARGE COMPLEX STACKED LOW CENTER SITS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF.
THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE COMING
WEEK. LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL HANG
AROUND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SWING OVER THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND PUSH ONTO THE MAINLAND ON THURSDAY. BEYOND
THAT TIME PERIOD MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW TO HANDLE THESE
FEATURES AS WELL AS A LINGERING UPPER LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
IT APPEARS HOWEVER THAT A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME WILL SET UP
AND CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
GALE 155 172 173 174 175 176 177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...MTL

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK68 PAFC 161358
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
458 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVELS HAVE TWO CLOSED LOWS WITH THE FIRST OVER THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION AND THE SECOND LOW OVER THE EASTERN SIBERIA
AREA. THERE IS GALE FORCE LOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE NEAR
DILLINGHAM THIS MORNING WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PIN-WHEELING
AROUND THIS LOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE BRISTOL BAY REGION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY CONTINUE
WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS BRINGING IN
COOLER AIR THE AREA AND COINCIDES WITH THE SHORTWAVES PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL FORM A LOW AT THE SURFACE
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE SOUTH
TO NORTH MERIDIONAL 70 KNOT JET STREAK OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
HELP TO TRACK THE LOW INTO THE GULF BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF BEFORE SPREADING INLAND. THE COPPER RIVER BASIN HAS STRATUS
AND FOG WITH THE SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE
PICKING UP THE IFR FOG THIS MORNING. THE EASTERN KENAI EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO KODIAK WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MORE PERIODS OF RAIN AS
SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE SURFACE LOW NEAR CHIGNIK TODAY. THE
BERING SEA WILL PREDOMINANTLY HAVE NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS WESTWARD WITH THE LOW IN THE BRISTOL BAY BECOMING
ELONGATED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
THE BERING STRAIT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING WILL
REMAIN GUSTY AS MORE COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW OVER
BRISTOL BAY REGION. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ELONGATED BY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH A LOW FORMING TO THE NORTH OF BETHEL BEFORE
TRACKING NORTH INTO THE BERING STRAIT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL HAVE THE REMNANTS OF A TROUGH HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING OVER THE GULF WITH THE GFS
BEING THE OUTLIER WITH KEEPING ONLY ONE LOW IN THE GULF...WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS ARE DEPICTING TWO LOWS FORMING BY FRIDAY EVENING
OVER THE GULF. THE PREFERRED MODELS OF CHOICE WERE THE ECMWF AND
THE NAM. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE EVEN THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOWS FORMING IN THE GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THE
DAY WITH LEEWARD SIDES OF THE MOUNTAINS MISSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION. A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF WILL MOVE
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND BRING SNOW TO THAT AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THAT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL THEN TRANSITION TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW KEEPING
AREAS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ALEUTIAN/ALASKA RANGE DOWNSLOPED
AND DRIER WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SATURDAY...ALLOWING SOME SHOWERS
TO FILL IN OVER AREAS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. GENERALLY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST.
FREEZING RAIN REMAINS A CONCERN FOR INLAND AREAS OF THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY...WITH
MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT KEEPING RAIN THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE KEEPING SURFACE
TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE COASTAL REGIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW AS A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OVER THE DELTA TONIGHT. THIS MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND THROUGH SUNDAY...CHANGING THE
PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO SNOW...AND ELIMINATING THE THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILLS OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA OVER THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT AND IN THE LOWER TEENS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY A STOUT
NORTHERLY WIND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS ORIGINATING OVER SIBERIA HAS PUSHED INTO
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THIS AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND BRING MUCH COOLER
WEATHER TO THE BERING SEA ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
THE COLDER AIR MASS WILL CREATE DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT
WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BERING SEA BY THIS EVENING. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THIS AIR MASS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
COOLED TO 32 DEGREES WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE NORTH OF
58N AS GALE FORCE WINDS MIX WITH COLDER AMBIENT TEMPERATURES.
WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY...HELPING TO
MODIFY TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISH THE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ONE CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT STATE IS THAT THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE A BIT BETTER THAN THE CURRENT
SITUATION OVER THE COOK INLET REGION. LATE THIS WEEKEND THE LAST
GASP OF THE CURRENT ALASKA PENINSULA TROUGH WILL BE LINGERING IN
THE AREA KEEPING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM THE
BERING SEA WILL BRING THE NEXT THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
MAINLAND. WHILE THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM
THE CURRENT VARIATION A BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ALEUTIANS
IS CAUSING SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONG GUIDANCE AS TO HOW THE FLOW
WILL LOOK OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. HOWEVER...SOME COMMON
FEATURES CAN BE SEEN. IT APPEARS AS IF A TROUGH WILL SET UP JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS ALONG WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING
INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF. THE TAKE AWAY IS A CONTINUATION OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 181 185
GALE 173 174 179 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...MTL

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 200159
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
859 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...BKN HIGH CLOUDS CAUSED BY PASSING WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HENCE BUMPED UP
CLOUD WORDING FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MAY BE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.
LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THOSE SUSCEPTIBLE ERN AREAS AS
WELL.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. MAY BE SOME
LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KENW AND POSSIBLY KUES AFTER BKN HIGH
CLOUDS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST.

.MARINE...REMOVED PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
MODIS IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TODAY HAD LAKE SURFACE TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S SO CONDITIONS OVER THE WATER DO NOT
APPEAR CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG THAT
MAY DEVELOP INLAND LATE TONIGHT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE SHORE AREAS
BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR
REMAINING OVER THE REGION.

MAY SEE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AS WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PUSHES THROUGH. DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MORE DIURNAL CUMULUS IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST
AREAS PER 925 MB MODEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND...UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SOME MODELS SHOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF COUNTY WARNING AREA. LIKELY LEFT OVER SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTION
OR MCS ROLLING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF UPPER LEVER
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST
THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY NORTHWEST PORTION OF CWA...THEN CLEARING
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
MIDDLE 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DURING MAX HEATING TIME OF DAY
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO BE VERY EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...SO MANY AREAS
COULD SEE 1 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AREA WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS TAF SITES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME...WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA
UNTIL AROUND 02Z SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MILWAUKEE
AND KENOSHA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER
AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA AS WELL UNTIL AROUND 02Z SUNDAY.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY AFFECT TAF SITES THIS EVENING...BEFORE SOME
CLEARING MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE
LIGHT FOG AT KENOSHA BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z SUNDAY...POSSIBLY IFR
AT TIMES LIKE LAST NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE LOCALIZED.

MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 121712 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1212 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.UPDATE...

IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN WI IS
OUR MAIN THREAT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC STILL HAS
SOUTHERN WI IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THAT IS MAINLY FOR
WIND.

THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IS HELPING TO KEEP THE
SURFACE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE 850MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SNEAK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND THEN DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN IL THIS EVENING AS THE LLJ VEERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHERN WI DUE TO THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THUS SEVERE HAIL IS NO
LONGER LIKELY. THE ONLY THING LEFT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STORM
ORGANIZATION DUE TO INCREASING BULK SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO ALLOW FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 5 PM AND 11 PM. THE AREA WITH GREATEST
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE I-94 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH. INCLUDING
DELLS...MADISON AND MILWAUKEE AREAS AND SOUTH. TWO TO THREE INCHES
COULD FALL WITHIN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. URBAN AREAS AND
CONSTRUCTION AREAS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.

WE ARE WEIGHING THE SHORT TERM PRECIP FORECAST HEAVILY ON THE HRRR
GIVEN ITS GOOD PERFORMANCE SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE HRRR AND NEW 12Z
WRF MODELS HAVE A SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE MAIN BATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING IN SOUTHERN WI THAN THE RAP. THE 12Z NAM DID
NOT CAPTURE THE MORNING PRECIP VERY WELL AND SEEMS LIKE A SOUTHERN
OUTLIER AND LIGHT ON THE QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...SO WILL LEAN AWAY
FROM THIS MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS BOTH
BULLSEYE THE PRECIP MAX OVER SOUTHERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING.

GIVEN THE SHORT NATURE OF THIS EXPECTED EVENING HEAVY RAIN EVENT...
WE ARE STILL NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SOUTHERN
WI MISSED OUT ON THE EARLY MORNING RAIN THAT HIT THE CHICAGO AREA SO
WE ARE NOT PRE-CONDITIONED FOR FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS DEFINITELY
AN URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING CONCERN...AND WE PLAN TO HANDLE THE
RAIN WITH AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY HEADLINE AT THIS
TIME. OF COURSE...THAT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LEADING TO PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING KDLL AND
KMSN. THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS...BUT EXPECT THE
LOWERING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE THE AREA PRIMED FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THERE IS LESS OF A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT WITH STRONG WINDS STILL POSSIBLE. LIKELY MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY
LOWER.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - LOW.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FOCUSED INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS MRNG MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN WI...HOWEVER BETTER CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. SEEING
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND FORCING. HENCE FORCED TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE TO LOW FOR TODAY. LEANING TOWARD MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
IN THE SHORT TERM AS CANADIAN HAVING ISSUES WITH QPF VERIFICATION
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT CARE FOR NAM HANDLING OF UPSTREAM VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE SO WL USE MORE OF A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF.

BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE BEEN
PRODUCING SCT-BKN STRATUS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN WI...HOWEVER INCREASE
IN STRATUS NOTED ON 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY OVER WESTERN HALF OF CWA
SINCE 05Z. INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY ALSO BE AIDED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AS WELL. HENCE EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS FOR A
TIME THIS MRNG. LOW CLOUDS WL LIKELY THIN LATER THIS MRNG AND
AFTN...BUT BY THEN MORE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM CONVECTION.

HERE ARE THE FACTORS WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT ON...PWAT VALUES LIKELY
TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES BY MID-LATE AFTN AS UPSTREAM DEWPTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER SRN WI. THIS WILL REACH THE 75TH
PERCENTILE AT GRB WITH DVN HISTORICAL PWAT VALUES NEARING TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. HENCE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE. OTHER FACTOR IS THAT ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET TO AFFECT SRN WI
FROM MID-AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE. DURING THIS TIME...VIGOROUS MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER SD/NE BORDER SHOULD BE PASSING ACROSS SRN WI
REGION. HENCE ENUF CONFIDENCE IN THESE FEATURES TO CONTINUE HIGH
MID-RANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AFTN INTO THE EVE. THINKING BEST
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA. CONSIDERED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AS THETA-E RIDGE SPREADS ACROSS SRN CWA AROUND 00Z AND 925-850MB
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ALIGNED WITH 850-300MB FLOW FOR A
PERIOD. HOWEVER THESE FACTORS ONLY AFFECTING SRN WI FOR A 3-6 HOUR
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ABOVE 2 INCHES
MOST AREAS AND CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND MOSTLY ABOVE
15KTS. HENCE HELD OFF ON WATCH AND WL MENTION IN HWO POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. WL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL TRAINING AFFECTING URBAN
AREAS.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

EXPECT NUMEROUS TO CATEGORICAL CONVECTION TO AFFECT SRN WI DURING
THE EVENING AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET BRUSHES THE AREA. BULK
SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE DAY TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS. UNSURE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER BUT CAPE
SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH 1000-2000 J. ABOUT HALF OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS USED IN THE SPC SSEO PAINT OUT AREAS OF STRONG
UPDRAFT HELICITY AND UPDRAFT SPEED DURING THE LATE AFTN WHILE 10M
WIND SPEED NOT AS IMPRESSIVE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS WEAK SO FOCUS
WOULD BE ON HAIL AND WINDS FROM LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE
BIGGEST FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL.

LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE EVENING AS UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. HENCE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING IN THE WEST TO THE EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WILL KEEP LINGERING SMALL POPS IN FOR AFTN MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST NW WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER 850
TEMPS. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A DRY SOLUTION WHILE THE GFS
HAS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY. UPPER FLOW IS
BROADLY CYCLONIC WITH ANY VORT...MAINLY THE SHEAR/ELONGATED
VARIETY...ACROSS NORTHERN WI. WITH THE GFS BEING THE ONLY MODEL TO
GENERATE PRECIP WILL GO WI THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND GO WITH THE
DRY LOOK. 850 COLD ADVECTION WILL PICK UP A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER 925 TEMPS STILL IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S LOOK REASONABLE.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MORE PRONOUNCED INTRUSION OF VORTICITY AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DECENT
LAPSE RATES AND SOME CAPE SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA. 850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO TAKE A TUMBLE TO UNDER 10C. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE COLD ADVECTION. 925
TEMPS DROP AS WELL AND SUPPORT COOL FOR JULY HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SLOWER ON
THE PROGRESS AND THE NAM/GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF
SHOWS AN 850 TEMP JUST A SMIDGE UNDER 3C AT 12Z ACROSS SC WI. IN
EITHER CASE EXPECT A STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SHRA CHANCES
GOING WITHIN THIS VERY COOL AIRMASS. 925 TEMPS ONLY MODIFY TO
10-13C IN THE AFTN HRS...WHICH TRANSLATES TO HIGHS FOR MOST NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE MID 60S. TAKING A COMPROMISE APPROACH WITH THE
925 TEMPS...WITH A NOD TO THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF SHOWS HIGHS
FOR MOST AREAS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE MID 60S.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW STILL SHOWING A CYCLONIC CURVATURE THOUGH SURFACE HIGH
DRAWS CLOSER AND AIRMASS DRIES OUT. MAY NEED A SMALL CHANCE OR
SPRINKLES ESP IN ERN AND NE CWA AS WE GET CLOSER BUT FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH THE DRY COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FAIRLY BENIGN NW FLOW. CHILLY TEMPS SLOWLY MODIFY. NOT READY TO
BUY INTO THE LIGHT...SPOTTY AND RANDOM NATURE OF QPF BEING THROWN
AROUND BY THE MODELS WITH LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND ANY
WAVES QUITE WEAK. SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY POPS AT THIS POINT.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...STRATUS LOWERING TO MVFR WEST OF MADISON LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST SO FOR NOW
WL CONTINUE A PERIOD OF LOWER MVFR CIGS RISING TO VFR LATER THIS MRNG.
HIGH HUMIDITY AND DEWPTS RETURNING TODAY HELPING TO FUEL SCT TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION FROM MID-AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING. LIKELY MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LOWER. MOST FAVORABLE
TIMES FOR CONVECTION WL BE LISTED IN TAFS.

MARINE...PATCHY OVERNIGHT CLEARING HAS ALLOWED THE MODIS IMAGER TO
CATCH SOME SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS FROM THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MI. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S...WITH THE COOLEST
READINGS NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT TO SHEBOYGAN. WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70 LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TO DEVELOP.
WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING MORE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ATTM DUE TO SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TONIGHT. WILL
MENTION THREAT IN HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 120831
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - LOW.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST NW WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER 850
TEMPS. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A DRY SOLUTION WHILE THE GFS
HAS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY. UPPER FLOW IS
BROADLY CYCLONIC WITH ANY VORT...MAINLY THE SHEAR/ELONGATED
VARIETY...ACROSS NORTHERN WI. WITH THE GFS BEING THE ONLY MODEL TO
GENERATE PRECIP WILL GO WI THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND GO WITH THE
DRY LOOK. 850 COLD ADVECTION WILL PICK UP A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER 925 TEMPS STILL IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S LOOK REASONABLE.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MORE PRONOUNCED INTRUSION OF VORTICITY AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DECENT
LAPSE RATES AND SOME CAPE SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA. 850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO TAKE A TUMBLE TO UNDER 10C. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE COLD ADVECTION. 925
TEMPS DROP AS WELL AND SUPPORT COOL FOR JULY HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SLOWER ON
THE PROGRESS AND THE NAM/GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF
SHOWS AN 850 TEMP JUST A SMIDGE UNDER 3C AT 12Z ACROSS SC WI. IN
EITHER CASE EXPECT A STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SHRA CHANCES
GOING WITHIN THIS VERY COOL AIRMASS. 925 TEMPS ONLY MODIFY TO
10-13C IN THE AFTN HRS...WHICH TRANSLATES TO HIGHS FOR MOST NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE MID 60S. TAKING A COMPROMISE APPROACH WITH THE
925 TEMPS...WITH A NOD TO THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF SHOWS HIGHS
FOR MOST AREAS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE MID 60S.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW STILL SHOWING A CYCLONIC CURVATURE THOUGH SURFACE HIGH
DRAWS CLOSER AND AIRMASS DRIES OUT. MAY NEED A SMALL CHANCE OR
SPRINKLES ESP IN ERN AND NE CWA AS WE GET CLOSER BUT FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH THE DRY COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FAIRLY BENIGN NW FLOW. CHILLY TEMPS SLOWLY MODIFY. NOT READY TO
BUY INTO THE LIGHT...SPOTTY AND RANDOM NATURE OF QPF BEING THROWN
AROUND BY THE MODELS WITH LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND ANY
WAVES QUITE WEAK. SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY POPS AT THIS POINT.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...STRATUS LOWERING TO MVFR WEST OF MADISON LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST SO FOR NOW
WL CONTINUE A PERIOD OF LOWER MVFR CIGS RISING TO VFR LATER THIS MRNG.
HIGH HUMIDITY AND DEWPTS RETURNING TODAY HELPING TO FUEL SCT TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION FROM MID-AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING. LIKELY MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LOWER. MOST FAVORABLE
TIMES FOR CONVECTION WL BE LISTED IN TAFS.

.MARINE...PATCHY OVERNIGHT CLEARING HAS ALLOWED THE MODIS IMAGER TO
CATCH SOME SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS FROM THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MI. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S...WITH THE COOLEST
READINGS NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT TO SHEBOYGAN. WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70 LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TO DEVELOP.
WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING MORE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ATTM DUE TO SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TONIGHT. WILL
MENTION THREAT IN HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 050140 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
940 PM AST FRI JUL 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MON
THEN WEAKEN AS TUTT BECOMES THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE. TROPICAL WAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT WITH SAL ESTABLISHING THEREAFTER.

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z AS WAVE
APPROACHES. WAVE IS MOVING RATHER FAST AT 25 KT AND IS SURROUNDED
BY SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY SAL AIR. DESPITE THAT...HI-RES WRF
NMM AND WRF-ARW DEVELOP STRONG CONVECTION OVER WRN PR SAT AFTERNOON.
THE MOISTURE SEEMS TO PEAK AROUND 06Z SUN WELL PAST THE DIURNAL
MAXIMUM SO NOT TOO CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT. BELIEVE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO WAVES ONLY LIGHT
RAINFALL AND OF SHORT-DURATION.

DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN SUN WITH SKIES BECOMING INCREASINGLY HAZY
AS SAL ESTABLISHES. SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED MON AND TUE WITH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY BOTH DAYS. NEXT WAVE FCST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA FRI WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH.
OVERALL...HOT WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO REACH LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS
AROUND 06Z SAT AND USVI TERMINALS BY 12Z SAT AND SPREAD WWD ACROSS
PR THEREAFTER. T-STORMS EXPECTED AT TJMZ WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
SOME LIGHT HAZE SAT BECOMING INCREASINGLY HAZY SUN AND ESPECIALLY
MON. COULD SEE MARGINAL MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY.

.MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20 KT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER MON. SEAS
4-6 FT THROUGH MON DIMINISHING 3-FT AFTER THAT.

.FIRE WEATHER...LIGHT RAINFALL SATURDAY WITH WAVE PASSAGE BUT THE RAIN
WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION AND LIKELY NOT RESULT IN ANY INCREASE IN
FUEL MOISTURE. SIGNIFICANT RED FLAG EVENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY MON AND TUE AS HOT AND VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
EPISODE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVES IN. THE MODIS AQUA RGB AND
THE CIRA LPW PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT THE AIR MASS TRAILING WAVE IS
RATHER WARM AND DRY AND THE MORE EXTREME SOLUTION OF THE ECWMF IS
MORE LIKELY TO VERIFY. SO...A VERY SIGNIFICANT RED FLAG EVENT
APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 80 89 / 50 50 50 40
STT 80 89 80 90 / 50 50 50 30

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

05/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KBRO 200859
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
359 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE 500 MB TROFFING JUST TO OUR
WEST WILL LINGER THERE THROUGHOUT TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT GRADUALLY NORTH THROUGHOUT SATURDAY. THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO REMAIN CONCENTRATED
JUST WEST OF DEEP SOUTH TX AS 500 MB RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX AND THE TX COASTLINE. DAYTIME HEATING LATER
TODAY WILL ALSO LIKELY HELP ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL CONV OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS IS NOT A
GREAT SET UP FOR RAINFALL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM. HOWEVER ISOLD CONV CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY TODAY DUE
TO THE FAIRLY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE 500 MB TROFFING. THE NAM
GUIDANCE DOES NOT REFLECT ANY DECENT POPS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING A LITTLE
WETTER SCENARIO FOR TODAY AND WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE SOME MENTION
OF ISOLD CONV TODAY.

FOR TEMPS TODAY WILL GO A LITTLE COOLER FOR HIGHS AS WITH THE CONV
FIRING TO OUR WEST LATER TODAY EXPECT PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLD COVER TO
SPREAD OVER THE RGV WHICH COULD LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. WILL GO A
LITTLE WARMER HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AS THE 500 MB TROFFING PULLS
FURTHER AWAY FROM US AND ALLOWS THE MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD A
LITTLE FURTHER WEST INCREASING THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES A BIT.
WILL STILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. THE
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MINS TONIGHT AND
WILL GO WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS HERE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND HOT WITH OVERALL
COLUMN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING. MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL LOOK TO CONTINUE AS WELL.

NOTABLE MODEL DISCREPANCY THOUGH BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GULF AND THEN STALLING. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
TROUGH IS FURTHER REINFORCED WHEN ANOTHER WAVE DIGS INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LEAVES THE MAIN WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND A SFC SHEAR ZONE SETS UP
AND PREVENTS A SURGE OF CARRIBEAN SOURCED LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES FROM
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE INITIAL
TROUGH AND DOES NOT PROVIDE IT WITH A REINFORCING SURGE...PLACING
THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS MORE OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. THIS ALLOWS A
SURGE OF DEEP EASTERLIES...WHICH HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE
CARRIBEAN AND ARE VISIBLE ON THE 20.01 ASCAT PASS OF THAT AREA...TO
PUMP DEEP AND RICH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND THE ECMWF INCREASES PRECIP CHANCES AND QPF
ACCORDINGLY.

BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THIS EVOLVES INTO A DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. THE GFS PRODUCES SHARP
TROUGHING OVER LOUISIANA AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WITH A 594 DM
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TO OUR WEST AND A WEAKER
BERMUDA HIGH OVER FLORIDA AND CUBA. THE ECMWF SLOWLY CLOSES OFF
RIDGING OVER FLORIDA EMBEDDED IN A MUCH LARGER SCALE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH RIDGING OVER THE SONORAN DESERT REGION OF MEXICO AND
ARIZONA AND PERSISTENT RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS OVER TEXAS. THE ECMWF
PATTERN WOULD BRING A MUCH WETTER/SHOWERY REGIME TO THE AREA WITH
MORE MODERATED TEMPERATURES WHEREAS THE GFS WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
A CONTINUATION OF THE COPY PASTE HOT AND BREEZY WEATHER OF THE LAST
WEEK OR SO. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WHERE THE
ECMWFS WETTER PICTURE HAS ONLY BEGUN DEVELOPING IN THE LAST 2 TO 4
RUNS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS EMERGING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

FOR THE FORECAST BASED IT AROUND A SCENARIO WHERE THE GULF
TROUGHINESS IS NOT QUITE AS PRONOUNCED...BUT THE DEEP 30 KNOT
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 850/700MB LAYER DO NOT GET QUITE AS CARRIED
AWAY EITHER. THE WAVES IN QUESTION ARE CLEARLY PRETTY PRONOUNCED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT NOT ASSOCIATED WITH MUCH PRECIP AT THE MOMENT
AND AMSU/SSMI AND MODIS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY APPEAR TO
SUGGEST THERE IS NOT AS MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THE ECMWF
INITIALIZED. EVEN IF THE SYNOPTIC ECMWF SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY THE
40 AND 50 PCT POPS PRESENTED BY ECX MOS APPEAR FAR TOO HIGH AND
THUNDER WOULD BE DIFFICULT/IMPOSSIBLE IN A ZONE WITH LAPSE RATES AS
POOR AS SHOULD BE IN PLACE. SO PAINTED LOW GRADE POPS/SHOWERS
STARTING IN THE MORNING ALONG THE COAST WORKING INLAND THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO THE MORE FAVORED SEABREEZE ZONES BY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND HUGGED BACK TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION ON FRIDAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES WARMER IN LINE WITH A DRIER OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
BUT MODERATED SOMEWHAT BY THE FACT THE WIND DIRECTION IS MORE
EASTERLY AND ONSHORE. SPEEDS ARE ALSO MORE MODERATE AND A SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY MAY BE ABLE TO SET UP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER IS
UP FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST 4 OR 5 DAYS. /68-JGG/

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STEADY AND
MODERATE S-SE SURFACE FLOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING MARINE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MARINE CONDITIONS MAY PUSH UP CLOSE TO
SCEC/POSSIBLY BORDERLINE SCA LEVELS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE. BUT NO STRONG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE MOST PART.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SUNDAY MAY APPROACH EXERCISE CAUTION OR MARGINAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON THE LAGUNA MADRE BUT MORE FAVORABLE MARINE WEATHER IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 79 92 80 / 20 10 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 93 78 94 78 / 20 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 96 77 97 77 / 20 10 10 10
MCALLEN 98 78 99 79 / 20 20 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 98 77 100 77 / 20 20 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 80 88 82 / 20 10 10 10

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/68/CAMPBELL

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KMFR 130339
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
839 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...JUST MADE AN UPDATE TO ADJUST MANY OF THE HEADLINES.
IN SUMMARY, EXPIRED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE EAST SIDE,
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WEST SIDE, AND EXTENDED THE
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR AREAS DOWNWIND (EAST) OF SUMMER LAKE
UNTIL 11 PM. THE FROST/FREEZE AND MARINE HEADLINES FOR TOMORROW
AND BEYOND WERE NOT CHANGED.

IT GOT PRETTY WINDY WEST OF THE CASCADES TODAY, AT LEAST IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS. WE RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS
OF TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES. WHILE THE DROUGHT MAY HAVE HAD
SOMETHING TO DO WITH THE STABILITY OF THESE TREES, IT WAS PRETTY
WINDY, NONETHELESS, AS EVIDENCED BY A PEAK GUST OF 36 MPH AT THE
MEDFORD AIRPORT. IT WAS WINDY AND ALSO VERY DRY EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA TODAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WERE OBSERVED ALMOST ALL DAY TODAY IN SOME AREAS, SUCH AS MODOC
COUNTY. WHILE HUMIDITIES HAVE CREPT UP ENOUGH TO GET US OUT OF RED
FLAG CRITERIA, IT IS STILL QUITE WINDY IN SPOTS EVEN AT THIS HOUR.
FOR EXAMPLE, ENHANCED VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MODIS IMAGERY STILL
CLEARLY SHOWS BLOWING DUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WHICH EXTENDS ALL
THE WAY TO HIGHWAY 395 AND BEYOND. HAVEN'T HAD ANY REPORTS OF
IMPACTS, BUT THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE, SO THE
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS (UNTIL 11
PM). AFTER THAT, WINDS SHOULD DECREASE ENOUGH FOR DUST TO SETTLE
DOWN.

ALSO ADJUSTED SKY AND WIND GRIDS, BUT THOSE EDITS WERE MINOR. NO
OTHER UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING. -WRIGHT

.AVIATION...BASED ON 13/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SETTLE DOWN FOR THE MOST PART BY LATE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN LEADING TO
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT THAT
CLOUDS WILL GET TO THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS TO INCLUDE MOST OF
JACKSON COUNTY BY SUNRISE, BUT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO REMAIN VFR IN
THE MEDFORD AREA. MVFR IN THE UMPQUA AND ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BECOME VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL ALSO BE MUCH LIGHTER. IT WILL
STILL BE A BIT GUSTY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS
MAINLY THE EAST SIDE. BTL

.MARINE...UPDATED UPDATED 12/8PM PDT...
SOUTH WINDS WILL LINGER ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO, TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AND THEN WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND STEEPENING SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO...AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS PERSISTENT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE LOW END,
BUT ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WHERE SOME
WARNING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WITH SEAS. BTL

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AT MOST LOCATIONS. ITS
BECOMING WINDY EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT
THIS HOUR...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE
CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
OVER NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH
COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING AT RFWMFR
CONTINUES FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA FOR
RAINFALL...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
AS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH TRANSITS THE FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
INITIALLY...CREEPING UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EAST OF
THE CASCADES. A HOST OF FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED AT NPWMFR. A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT...WITH A HINT OF JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH...IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES
WITH LIGHT WINDS...CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR COLD
TEMPERATURES. MOST POPULATION CENTERS LIKE KLAMATH FALLS AND ALTURAS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...BUT PLENTY OF MORE RURAL AREAS WILL
DIP WELL BELOW FREEZING.

ON MONDAY MODELS START TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. GFS SUGGESTS
RIDGING...THE ECMWF DEEP TROUGHING JUST TO OUR EAST...AND THE
CANADIAN IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. WE ARE FAVORING THE EC SOLUTION
BASED ON EXPECTED UPSTREAM BLOCKING...AND THE IDEA THAT THE GFS IS
TOO PROGRESSIVE...FOLLOWING THE THINKING OF MY COLLEAGUE ON LAST
NIGHT'S SHIFT. SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH BASICALLY
MEANS KEEPING TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL THROUGH TUESDAY.
THEN...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A WARMUP.

FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LAKE...KLAMATH
AND MODOC COUNTIES INDICATE GUSTY WINDS OF OVER 20 MPH...WITH
HUMIDITIES DROPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT. THEE CONDITIONS ARE
RESULTING FROM A DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...AND
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE PRODUCING 700 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TODAY...THESE SHOULD EASILY MIX TOT HE
SURFACE...AND THIS HAS PROMPTED THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM PDT TONIGHT. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY...AND OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES SHOULD BE GOOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN DRY.

THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...BUT SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT CONVECTION
COULD BE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST IS MUCH TOO LOW FOR ANY DETAILS ON
PROBABILITIES...TIMING...OR LOCATION...BUT USERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHTNING DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST TERM. -BPN

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ030.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ031.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ031.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ031.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ029.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ029.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ084.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
2 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM
PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK67 PAJK 111327
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
527 AM AKDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING
OVER NORTHERN B.C. AND ANOTHER LOW PASSING TO THE DISTANT SOUTH.
NEITHER OF THESE FEATURES WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN
CAUSING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM OVERHEAD. WHAT IT IS CAUSING IS
A GENERALLY WEAK NWLY FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE. THIS NWLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS TENDS TO BE A DRY PATTERN
FOR US SO HAVE NO PRECIP MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WAS CLOUD COVER. THERE IS A MARINE
LAYER OVER THE GULF BUT WITH SOME BREAKS IN IT EVIDENT WITH THE
SPORT MODIS NIGHT BAND AS WELL AS 3.9 IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHIPS
IN THE GULF UNDER THIS DECK HAVE REPORTED CEILINGS OF AROUND
2500FT AND COASTAL LAND AREAS HAVE REPORTED CLOUDS AS LOW AS
1000FT. CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT WERE AROUND LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
STRATIFIED OVERNIGHT MAKING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING WHILE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAS
REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR. EXPECT BREAKS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH BEST CLEARING IN THE LEE OF THE NWLY
FLOW ALOFT AND OVER THE INNER CHANNELS. SOME AFTERNOON CU MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN HOWEVER MODEL BASED CAPE IS FORECASTED TO BE A BIT
LESS THAN YESTERDAY...DESPITE BETTER HEATING AT THE SURFACE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYER AS A WHOLE.

HAVE SET HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
EXPECT AROUND 60F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT THE MID 60S FOR
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREA WITH HYDER PEAKING AT 70F. IF CLOUDS STICK
AROUND LONGER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET QUITE AS WARM...OR ON THE OTHER HAND IF
THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT EARLIER THEN SOME INLAND AREAS SUCH AS THE
MENDENHALL VALLEY COULD GET A COULD GET A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
AND REACH THE MID 60S. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT HOW STRONG OF A SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BASED ON
EXPECTED SUNSHINE/SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE...UNLIKE WHAT HAPPENED
YESTERDAY.

PREFERRED THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM FOR THEIR GOOD INITIALIZATION OF
THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND WAS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE
INHERITED PRESSURE FORECAST. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS BASED ON
LOCAL SEA BREEZE EFFECTS AND STREAM LINES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE OVERALL...BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT TO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF ALASKA PERSISTS AND KEEPS A NOSE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE OUTER COAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY A DEVELOPING WAVE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PAST KODIAK ISLAND
THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTING THE FRONTAL BAND WILL ARC OUT TO THE OUTER COAST BY
FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN CURVING WEST QUICKLY AROUND 50N AND
RUNNING BACK TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. SO WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE GULF PRECIPITATION GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE INITIAL BATCH
OF MOISTURE WITH THE WAVE. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
PANHANDLE DURING FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
BAND LOOK TO BE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL RIGHT NOW OF 25 TO 30 KT. MAIN
BURST OF RAIN SHOULD BE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES. DO EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND ANOTHER RIDGE
BUILDS IN ALONG THE OUTSIDE COASTAL AREA OF THE PANHANDLE.

THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVING ISSUES WITH POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENTS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC HEADING TOWARDS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE GULF OF ALASKA - SO WILL BE CONTINUING THE TREND OF
USING WPC GUIDANCE IN THE LATER TIME STAGES OF THE FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TO INTO SATURDAY WITH THE WEATHER FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND THEN LOWER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

FERRIN/BEZENEK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KRLX 301014
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
614 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH ON TODAY. WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT OR DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING.

AN OLD COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO OUR SOUTH EARLY...WHILE FRESHER AIR
MASS FILTERS FROM THE NORTH. THEREFORE...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE AT H50 WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE MS VALLEY
FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
WV FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A VORT MAX SINKS
SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES...ACROSS PA...INTO NORTHERN WV BY
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD ENHANCE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND PRODUCE SOME PCPN SATURDAY.

WENT CLOSER TO THE ALL BLEND CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. HAVE DRY NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR EAST WINDS WILL
TURN MORE EAST THEN SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE BACK INTO SW VIRGINIA COUNTIES TO YIELD SHOWER OR
STORM. ALSO HAVE A WEAK 500MB RIPPLE CROSSING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MAINLY DICKENSON COUNTY VA. ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGH AND LOWS. BLENDED BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF
INTO HIGHS AND BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY WENT WITH WPC THINKING. HOWEVER...CHANGES WERE MADE TO
GRIDS LATER IN THE PERIOD...BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY BASED ON MODEL
DIFFERENCES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING A FRONT TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL
GIVE WAY TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW DIURNAL NATURE OF STORMS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL NOT GO FAR.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WPC TEMPS LOOK GOOD...BUT MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO MATCH UP BETTER
WITH THE NEIGHBORS.

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODIS 1KM SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WV OVERNIGHT. SFC OBS SHOWS IFR FOG AT MOST
PLACES...IMPROVING AT BKW TO MVFR BY 12Z.

RELATIVELY DRIER AIR FILTERS FROM THE NORTH TODAY...AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13-15Z AREA WIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS COULD PRODUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT FOR IFR FOG DEVELOPING OVER PROTECTED RIVER
VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...EXPECT LESS FOG
COVERAGE AND DURATION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET AND INTENSITY OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
OVER RIVER VALLEYS.

UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L H M M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M M M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ARJ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 220800
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST THU MAY 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 80W WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE
WRN CARIB DURING THE WEEKEND THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD TO THE ERN
CARIB BY MID NEXT WEEK. SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO DOMINATE AT LOW TO
MID LEVELS.

.DISCUSSION...AMPLIFLYING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE WRN CARIB
WILL LEAD TO HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ERN CARIB THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WWD FROM THE TROP ATLC. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUN. AIR
MASS BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST IS ALSO OF SAHARAN ORIGIN (SAL) BUT
ANIMATION OF VIS IMAGERY FROM YDAY AND MODIS AEROSOL PRODUCTS SHOW
THIS AIR MASS IS NOT ACCOMPANIED WITH SAHARAN DUST JUST DRY AND
STABLE. JET CIRRUS ON THE EAST SIDE OF WRN CARIB UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE NE CARIB TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CIRRUS MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY GIVE
A FALSE SENSE OF HAZE OR DUST IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

SOME WEAKENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION APPEARS LIKELY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WRN CARIB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD LEADING TO
MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BUT IT APPEARS AIR MASS OF SAHARAN ORIGIN
WILL NOT ALLOW ANY SIG MOISTENING FOR ANYTHING OUT OF THE
ORDINARY. OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS AWFUL DRY FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. AFT 22/16Z...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ. EXPECT
SCT-BKN LOW-MID LVL CLD LYRS FL020-120...WITH BKN-OVC HIGH LVL. LOW
LEVEL WNDS FM SE 10-15 KNOTS BCMG FL SW AND INCR W/HT ABV TO MAX OF
AROUND 75 KTS NR FL450.

.MARINE...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 3-5 FT. NO SIG CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.FIRE WEATHER...AS WINDS AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHEN
DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS EXPECT THE FIRE DANGER TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY FRI AND SAT. FUELS ON THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAIN AND ESPECIALLY VIEQUES REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO BURNING BASED
ON A TERRA MODIS NDVI IMAGE FROM YESTERDAY AND KBDI INDICES AND
COULD SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR RFW
APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE CIRRUS/UPPER LEVEL MOIST PLUME THAT
COULD BLOCK SOLAR RADIATION SUBSTANTIALLY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 77 91 78 / 20 20 20 0
STT 82 78 82 78 / 20 10 10 10

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

02/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 040830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MOST OF UPSTREAM LIGHT DBZ OVER SRN ND/NRN SD NOT REACHING
GROUND...HOWEVER A FEW -SHRA WITH DBZ EXCEEDING 35 LIKELY REACHING
SFC. WEAK ISENTROPIC OMEGA WITH THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED TO
FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES ACROSS SRN MN TOWARD SRN WI THIS MRNG.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND FEED OF DRIER AIR OVER SRN WI EXPECTED TO
DRY UP MOST OF THESE SHRA AS THEY PROGRESS INTO SRN WI. HENCE WL
DROP POPS TO SCHC WITH A FEW SPRINKLES LIKELY IN THE SW CWA LATER
THIS MRNG. DESPITE WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TODAY...SFC DEWPTS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S DURING THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN. EXPECT
WINDS TO TURN NORTHEAST AT THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AFTER 16Z WHICH
WILL HALT DIURNAL TEMP RISE. MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMP IMAGERY FROM
SATURDAY MEASURED LAKE MI WATER TEMP REMAINING IN THE LOW 40S.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE NORHERN GTLAKES. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD. BOTH GFS AND NAM 300 THETA SURFACE SHOWS INCREASING
LATE NIGHT ISENTROPIC OMEGA WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10MB. ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND MOISTURE
RETURN TO WARRANT ADDING SMALL POPS TO MOST AREAS LATER TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

KEPT LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...WITH PASSING SHEARED 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY...SO COULD END UP BEING SPRINKLES.
NAM/ECMWF MODELS SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY
INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COOL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND.

PATTERN SHIFT THEN OCCURS...AS 500 MB RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE AREA. FOCUSED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN MOVES
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AIDED BY SOUTHERLY 850 MB LOW LEVEL
JET POINTING INTO THE REGION.

THESE FEATURES WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AT 850
MB...AND RESULT IN INCREASING POPS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED AND RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING SIMILAR TRENDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY...THEN DIFFER AFTERWARDS. THEY PUSH THE WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTH OF THE AREA BY
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AS 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET AND CONVERGENCE FOCUSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A STRONG CAP DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT
THE 850 MB LEVEL. THIS MAY LIMIT SHOWERS AND STORMS QUITE A
BIT...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS
NORTHWARD. WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE
FORECAST WELL INLAND...WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING LAKESHORE AREAS
COOLER.

SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 12Z
THURSDAY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA OR SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 00Z
FRIDAY. WARM FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE COLD
FRONT STILL WEST OF THE AREA. MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA AS WELL. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING...AS CAP SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. WARM TEMPERATURES MAY CRACK 80 DEGREES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

SURFACE LOW THEN SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN
ONTARIO CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA...THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE ECMWF...AND
FRIDAY ON THE GFS. MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA ON THE GFS...WITH THE ECMWF MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHEST POPS ARE THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES LEAD TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SHOWN ON GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD MEAN LAYER CAPES
THURSDAY. CIPS ANALOGS AND GFS CWASP PRODUCT SUGGEST THAT SEVERE
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. MAIN ISSUES WILL BE TIMING OF
FRONT...IF CAP WILL ERODE ENOUGH...AND WHERE THE MAIN 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMUM GOES. SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS DO NOT SEEM TO PAN
OUT UNLESS THE 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS THROUGH OR CLOSE TO
THE AREA.

GFS/ECMWF THEN DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF NEXT
SYSTEM TOWARD OR INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. THUS...USED CONSENSUS
POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

A VFR PERIOD EXPECTED WITH PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. MAY BE
A FEW -SHRA IN THE AREA AFT 06Z/MON. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL TURN EAST TO NORTHEAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATE THIS
MRNG AND AFTN.

.MARINE...

WL LIKELY BE A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING IN
NORTHERN ZONES BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT WITH STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
REMAINING IN NORTHERN ZONES. DUE TO BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 22 KNOTS EXPECTED...WILL HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT ADVY
THIS MRNG BUT ANY SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE AFTER 16Z AND THEN REMAIN
E TO NE THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES TO THE NORTH.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 021136
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
336 AM AKDT FRI MAY 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THE LAST FEW RUNS. MODELS IN
GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 90 HOURS BEFORE THEY REALLY
DIVERGE. GFS IS OVERDOING THE QPF NUMBERS AS USUAL SO WILL LEAN ON
A BLEND OF ECMWF AND NAM. SURFACE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES. WILL NUDGE TO THE BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...BROAD AREA OF RIDGING AROUND A 576 DAM HIGH
OVER FAIRBANKS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS THE CENTER
MOVES OVER DOT LAKE BY SATURDAY MORNING AT 569 DAM...THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AS THE CENTER DROPS SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS 568 DAM. A SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT
BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUE TO OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
SATURDAY EVENING. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SATURDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE BERING STRAIT BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS IT EXTEND SOUTH FROM A 525 DAM CLOSED LOW THAT
DEVELOPS AND MOVE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA...THE LOW DEEPENS TO 511
DAM AS IT MOVES INTO THE ARCTIC WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
OVER BARROW TO BUCKLAND TO CAPE ROMANZOF BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
THE TROUGH MOVES TO LIE FROM OVER DEADHORSE TO GALENA TO NUNIVAK
ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...TODAY WILL BE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR AT AROUND 6 CELSIUS. GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING TO THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW CELSIUS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST TEMPERATURES NOT SO COLD BUT EXPECT THEM TO FALL AS THE ZERO
CELSIUS ISOTHERM WILL LIE FROM KOMAKUK BEACH CANADA TO FAIRBANKS
TO KING SALMON.

SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EAST. WEAK THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE
ALASKA RANGE TODAY. SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL MOVE TO
THE BERING STRAIT THIS EVENING ENHANCING CLOUDS AND MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN THE
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE MIDDLE YUKON RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND THEN PUSH TO THE WEST CENTRAL INTERIOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY...AND TANANA VALLEY WILL BOTTOM OUT
TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES THEM UP A LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ARCTIC COAST...MODIS 11 UM SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0724Z SHOWS
PATCHY CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AT SEVERAL LEVELS. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE AREA. CEILING WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG ISSUES FOR A
CHANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY
THEN DIP INTO THE 20S TONIGHT. DO EXPECT SOME DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MODIS 11 UM SATELLITE IMAGERY
AT 0724Z SHOWS A BAND OF CLOUDS RUNNING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
BERING STRAIT. CLOUDY WITH SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS NEAR THE BERING
STRAIT...ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND POINT HOPE...AND VICINITY TODAY
AND TONIGHT. CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL AREAS. MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE INLAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ALONG THE COAST...INLAND AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
AND 70S. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH ALL THOSE TEMPERATURES
DOWN 10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MODIS 11 UM SATELLITE IMAGERY AT
0724Z SHOWS NICE BIG AREA OF CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR. DRY
AND WARM TODAY AND TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND 70S SOUTH OF FORT YUKON AND IN THE 40S AND 50S TO
THE NORTH. SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY AS THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND IS ENHANCED BY A WEAK PULSE THAT MOVES NORTH FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA.

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THE
INTERIOR ZONES TODAY...THOUGH WIND CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL.
EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO BOTTOM OUT TODAY WITH LESS WIND
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED INTO MID
WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...ICE STARTED MOVING AT EAGLE LATE LAST NIGHT SO
BREAKUP ON THE YUKON HAS BEGUN. STILL NO MOVEMENT AT DAWSON
CANADA. REMAINDER OF RIVERS CONTINUE SLOW BREAKUP THOUGH THAT
COULD CHANGE AS FREEZING LEVELS IN THE INTERIOR TODAY WILL RISE TO
NEARLY 10000 FEET. REMAINDER OF THE RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS AND THE ICE CONTINUES TO DEGRADE IN PLACE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ227.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

SDB MAY 14

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK67 PAJK 221314
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
514 AM AKDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...RATHER QUIET ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ARE FROM A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
DROPPING SW OUT OF THE YUKON WHILE THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH
ARE FROM THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BE LIFTING NW OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGES FROM MODIS AND VIIRS REVEAL SOME
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AROUND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND
YAKUTAT. THE FOG AROUND PRINCE OF WALES HAS PROVED TO BE DENSE IN
SOME PLACES AS HYDABURG AND KLAWOCK BOTH HAVE HAD VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES THIS MORNING. AS SUCH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR HYDABURG AND KLAWOCK AREAS UNTIL 8 AM
WHEN THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF AS THE SUN RISES.

THE WEATHER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER NICE FOR MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGH INTO THE UPPER 40 TO MID 50S FOR MOST PLACES. WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THOUGH SOME HIGHER WINDS FROM SEA BREEZES
COULD CROP UP THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA STARTS TO MOVE IN.

INTO TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR MOST AREAS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES NW. SHOWERS WILL ALSO START TO BECOME A THREAT FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE THE NORTH
WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE THIS EVENING INTO THE LATE NIGHT. IT WILL
NOT QUITE GET TO YAKUTAT BY LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OBSERVED THE CLOSER TO THE COAST
MOUNTAINS YOU ARE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
MAY START CLEARING AND DRYING OUT LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FOG FORMATION AGAIN THERE. AS SUCH I HAVE INSERTED SOME PATCHY
FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THERE WERE SOME
DETAIL DIFFERENCES FOR THE INCOMING TROUGH. PRIMARILY WENT WITH
THE NAM AND SOME ECMWF FOR OVERALL UPDATES AS BOTH LOOKED TO HAVE
MORE OF THE CURRENT DETAILS. OVERALL CHANGES WERE MINOR.

.LONG TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND AMPLITUDE OF A COMPACT MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING N ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WED MORNING
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. MODEST ASCENT/MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A COLD MIDLEVEL AIRMASS /-30 TO -35C
AT H5/ WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE CWA...THEN BECOMING ISOLATED ON THU. MEANWHILE...A
DRY MIDLEVEL AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
THE CWA THU MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
DISTURBANCE EXITS N. THE COMBINATION OF DECREASING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMPTED A BUMP UP IN THU DAYTIME
HIGHS FOR SRN AREAS...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SMALL-SCALE UPPER WAVES IS THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE N INTO THE CWA FRI AND SAT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE
EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT FEATURE...BUT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. NUDGED FRI HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM THOSE EXPECTED ON THU DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. IN FACT...LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE IS FORECAST FRI
THROUGH TUE. THUS...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE
30S ARE MAINTAINED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM.
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SYNOPTIC-SCALE
TROUGH WILL BECOME POSITIONED OVER THE GULF AND NERN PAC BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THOUGH PREDICTABILITY IS FAIRLY HIGH
WITH THIS LARGE TROUGH...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO EMBEDDED
IMPULSES PINWHEELING NWD FROM THE TROUGH INTO SE AK. FOR THIS
REASON...WPC GUIDANCE BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE ECMWF WAS PRIMARILY
USED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE EXTENDED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ027.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051.

EAL/GARNER

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KLCH 210819
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
319 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AREAWIDE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING UP AGAIN FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT EAST TO
SHORT OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. GOES-E/MODIS MVFR PRODUCT SHOWING
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF LOW VISIBILITY FOR DEVELOPING IN THE
BPT AREA WHICH LATEST OBSERVATION CONFIRM THAT TREND...AND ANOTHER
AREA FROM LAKE CHARLES TO NEAR LAFAYETTE. THEREFORE...ASKING FOLKS
TO DRIVE CAREFULLY THIS MORNING IF YOUR DRIVING IN THESE AREAS.

NOW...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION DESPITE SOME
MORNING FOG. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STABLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWESTERLY UNSTABLE FLOW TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS AND INTO TUESDAY AREAWIDE AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SAGS
DOWN INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK FRONT MAY GET DOWN TO THE I-10
CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING AND WASHING OUT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE
DYNAMICS ARE BEST WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNAFFECTED DUE
TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN...AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. SO...MORE OR LESS...WE ARE JUST TALKING A BRIEF
WINDSHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW OR NON EXISTENT DUE TO WEAK DYNAMICS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL TRIGGER.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT MORE PROMISING AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGIN TO
RIDE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL STAY OUT
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...GUIDANCE DOES AT LEAST SHOW POPS
INCREASING.

TO SUM UP THINGS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
WARM WITH LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WE MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LETHARGIC AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
STUBBORNLY OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN SEAS WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 81 62 81 63 / 10 20 20 10
KBPT 80 63 81 63 / 10 20 20 10
KAEX 83 60 81 60 / 10 30 30 10
KLFT 81 61 81 63 / 10 20 20 10

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...06

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KMTR 061127
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
427 AM PDT SUN APR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEK...AND IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA. THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE A
CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG
130W...BUILDING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER CALIFORNIA. SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THIS RIDGE IS WARMING THE AIRMASS ALOFT AND GENERATING GREATER
LOW LEVEL STABILITY. THE RESULT IS DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY ALONG THE SAN MATEO COUNTY COAST.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK.
BUT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR RELATIVELY
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE VEERS MORE
TO THE NORTH AND BEGINS TO ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF
AFTERNOON SUN...EVEN AT THE OCEAN.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER CALIFORNIA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
OUT OF THE NORTH. BY MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 70S NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE 80S INLAND. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INLAND ON TUESDAY WHEN 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT CLOSE TO 18 DEG C ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ARE LIKELY BY
TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTY. COASTAL TEMPERATURES ARE A MORE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT ON
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS TO THE SOUTH. COASTAL
TEMPS LIKELY WON'T WARM ANY FURTHER ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS WEEK...RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT ALL
THAT LIKELY (SEE RECORD HIGHS IN CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFF TO OUR EAST BY
MIDWEEK AND A CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL TRIGGER A RETURN TO
ONSHORE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AND A COOLING TREND DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. COOLING ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR THE
COAST AND IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS...WITH COOLER AIR THEN SPREADING
FARTHER INLAND BY THURSDAY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER LOW
WILL LOSE MOST OF ITS MOISTURE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN
CA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THUS...THERE APPEARS LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:15 AM PDT SUNDAY...MAJOR OVERHAUL TO FORECAST
PACKAGE. WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS. LATEST SPORT MODIS/VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
STRATUS REMAINS OFF THE COAST WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT INLAND. LATEST
HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS STRATUS OUT OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY.
VFR TONIGHT AS WELL. CONF IS MED-HIGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. GUSTY ONSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

.MARINE AND BEACH...AS OF 4:17 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE MUCH TALKED
ABOUT LONG PERIOD SWELL IS TAKING ITS TIME ARRIVING ON THE CENTRAL
COAST. HOWEVER...LATEST BUOY REPORTS TO THE N ARE STARTING TO PICK
UP ON THE 17-18 SECOND PERIOD. ONCE THE LONGER PERIOD MOVES IN
LATER THIS MORNING...IT WILL NOT BE LARGE BUT WILL BE FAST MOVING
AND CAPABLE OF WASHING PEOPLE FROM BEACHES AND FISHERMEN FROM
ROCKS AND JETTIES IN THE FORM OF SNEAKER WAVES. THEREFORE A BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 6TH THROUGH 8TH.
AT FIRST GLANCE IT APPEARS THAT 1989 FEATURED A MULTI-DAY HEAT
SPELL.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION................APRIL 6TH APRIL 7TH APRIL 8TH
KENTFIELD...............94/1924 91/1989 91/1989
SAN RAFAEL..............87/1989 88/1989 91/1989
NAPA....................91/1939 89/1989 91/1989
SAN FRANCISCO...........91/1989 92/1989 94/1989
SFO AIRPORT.............89/1989 89/1989 92/1989
OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......86/1989 87/1989 88/1989
RICHMOND................89/1989 90/1989 93/1989
LIVERMORE...............89/1939 89/1989 90/1989
SAN JOSE................93/1989 93/1989 94/1989
GILROY..................91/1989 94/1989 96/1989

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION...............APRIL 6TH APRIL 7TH APRIL 8TH
MONTEREY...............90/1989 92/1989 92/1989
SANTA CRUZ.............93/1989 94/1989 90/1989
SALINAS................97/1989 98/1989 78/1980
SALINAS AIRPORT........97/1989 98/1989 95/1989
KING CITY..............98/1989 98/1989 100/1989

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 AM

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: RWW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 060820
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST SUN APR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
PRES NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS THRU TUE
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT MID WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG TODAY YET
TO COMPLETELY INHIBIT AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY SO WILL
MAINTAIN SCT POPS FOR NW PR WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF A T-STORM THERE.
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS SIGNIFICANTLY MON-WED LEADING TO
RAPID EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
BECOMING ALMOST NIL.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN FRI BUT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS
RIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
SIG MOISTURE RECOVERY UNTIL NEXT SUN APR 13. SO A VERY DRY WEEK
IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH HOT TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15-25 KTS BLO FL100
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT ISOLD-SCT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLDS WITH
FEW EMBEDDED -SHRA/SHRA ACROSS LOCAL FLYING AREA BTW ERN PR AND NRN
LEEWARDS DURG PRD FM 06/8Z-06/12Z...BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR MAINLY OVR
ERN PR FM 06/08Z-06/12Z. BRIEF SFC WND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING PASSING
SHOWERS AT LOCAL TAF SITES MAINLY TJSJ...TIST AND TISX. NO OTHER SIG
OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. AFTER 17Z...SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONSOF PUERTO RICO...THESE SHOWERS
COULD AFFECT THE TJMZ THROUGH 22Z.

.MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20 KT THRU TUE THEN DIMINISHING. NNE SWELLS
WILL PEAK EARLY THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE.

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO RAPID DRYING OF FUELS
TODAY THROUGH TUE IN AREAS THAT HAD SOME RAIN LAST WEEK. BOTH CAMP
SANTIAGO AND CABO ROJO MISSED MOST OF THE RAIN WITH ONLY 0.20 AND
0.10 INCHES FALLING THERE RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST KBDI AT CABO
ROJO REMAINS AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE WHILE AT CAMP SANTIAGO IS
AN ALL TIME HIGH USING A CLIMATOLOGY SINCE 2004. VIEQUES RAWS
LOCATED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ISLAND HAS HAD 1.40 INCHES SO FAR IN
APRIL BUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF VIEQUES MISSED ALMOST ALL THE
RAIN. COTTON VALLEY RAWS IN ST. CROIX HAS HAD 1.28 INCHES SO FAR
IN APRIL WHILE CHRISTIANSTED ARPT HAS HAD 1.77 INCHES.
HOWEVER...LONG TERM (30-DAY) DEFICITS INDICATE BOTH THE EASTERN
PORTION OF VIEQUES AND SAINT CROIX ARE HAVING SIG RAINFALL
DEFICITS. IN ADDITION...RECENT VIIRS TRUE COLOR AND MODIS NDVI
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THESE TWO ISLANDS
REMAIN BROWN WITH HIGH FUEL LOADING SUGGESTING FUELS ARE READY FOR
FIRE WITH HIGH SUSCEPTIBILITY TO BURNING. BASED ON LATEST GFS...RED
FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY BOTH MON AND TUE WITH FIRE WX
CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOMEWHAT WED AS WINDS DIMINISH.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 87 75 / 10 10 10 0
STT 85 76 86 76 / 20 10 10 0

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR VIEQUES-SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT
FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

10/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 041106
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
306 AM AKDT FRI APR 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE FRONT DEVELOPING
OVER THE WEST COAST AND MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CONSENSUS ON BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN
INTERIOR BY SATURDAY MORNING AND THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY SATURDAY
EVENING.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...COL OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS MORNING
DROPS SOUTH OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. 506 DAM LOW
200NM NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT WILL MOVE TO 250NM NORTH OF BARROW BY
EARLY SATURDAY...THEN BE ABSORBED BY A 497 DAM LOW NEAR 77N 170E.
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN
BERING STRAIT THIS MORNING MOVING EAST TO LIE FROM OVER BARROW TO
OVER MARSHALL AND SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM OVER
BARTER ISLAND TO OVER MCGRATH AND SOUTH BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE WEST COAST TO OVER THE
INTERIOR BY SUNDAY MORNING AND STALL AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH.
MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND WILL
PERSIST AS THE LONGWAVE REORIENTS NORTH SOUTH OVER THE STATE. AT
850 HPA...SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE FRONT AND ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP 5 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS FOR A COUPLE DAYS ONCE THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH EACH AREA.

SURFACE...INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR
WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH AS WELL AS COLD AIR DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE WEST
COAST. 984MB LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO 300NM
SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY SATURDAY MORNING. A 989MB LOW DEVELOPING
NEAR KODIAK WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. A LEESIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE ALASKA
RANGE TODAY. THE LEESIDE LOW WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE LOW MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY EVENING WITH A 995MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE TANANA FLATS NEAR DELTA JUNCTION. THIS WILL ENHANCE
OVERRUNNING NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
INTERIOR. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY
SUNDAY EVENING THEN LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR INTO
TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENTUALLY EXITING THE STATE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS HIGH OVER
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA MOVES WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
ARCTIC COAST.

ARCTIC...MODIS 11UM BT AT 0839Z SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS IS PATCHY. WEAK FRONT WILL DEVELOP NEAR BARROW TODAY AND
MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT. QPF VALUES ARE SMALL SO EXPECT JUST A
DUSTING OF SNOW FOR AREAS FROM BARROW EAST TO DEADHORSE TODAY. AS
THE FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEADHORSE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
1 TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS...AND UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE BROOKS
RANGE THROUGH THE LIFE OF THE SYSTEM. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR A COUPLE DAYS WITH LOW REACHING 15 TO 25
BELOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW STAYING BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH...THE EXCEPTION BEING AROUND BARTER
ISLAND WHICH WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH FLURRIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MODIS 11UM BT AT 0839Z SHOWING
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND A GOOD SIZED PATCH OF
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT DEVELOPING IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARM
OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. MOST OBSERVATIONS ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S AT 0900Z. MAINLY CLEAR FROM NORTON SOUND NORTH ON
THE COAST AND NORTH OF ANVIK OVER THE INTERIOR AT 0900Z. FOR AREAS
EAST OF NOME LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY AND FLURRIES FROM
SHAKTOOLIK SOUTH...SPREADING NORTH AND EAST BEGINNING THIS
EVENING. CLOD AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING TODAY FROM NORTON SOUND
NORTH WILL BEGIN PUSHING TEMPERATURES DOWN RESULTING IN THOSE
AREAS BEING AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. QPF VALUES WITH THE SNOW ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO
ONLY EXPECT UP TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM.

INTERIOR...LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND LOW PUSHING TO THE
NORTH GULF WILL HELP SPREAD CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW SPREADING INTO MINCHUMINA AND WESTERN
DENALI PARK TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY EAST SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INTERIOR. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW ACROSS THE ALASKA
RANGE WILL HELP ENHANCE THE LEESIDE TROUGH. WINDS IN GENERAL WILL
BE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH. 995MB LOW
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY EVENING WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA BUT STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE
LESS THAN 2 INCHES...THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE UPSLOPE AREAS LIKE THE
WHITE AND RAY MOUNTAINS THAT COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF FRESH
SNOW. WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE FRONT TEMPERATURES HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
COLDER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY BUT NOT UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK WHEN THEY WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ245.

SDB APR 14

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 031130
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
330 AM AKDT THU APR 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST RUNS ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST AND MARCHING EAST ACROSS
THE STATE. GFS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION OVER THE
INTERIOR TODAY SO WILL AGAIN CLEAN ALL OF IT OUT OF THE GRIDS.
TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE GETTING BETTER...NOT SURE IF IT IS TIED TO
THE APRIL CHANGE TO A WARM SEASON FORMULA OR JUST THE CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...COL OVER THE BERING STRAIT WILL DRIFT OVER
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BRISTOL BAY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 511 DAM LOW OVER74N 175W WILL MOVE OVER BARROW
BY FRIDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST
COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST TO EXTEND FROM OVER
NUIQSUT SOUTHWEST TO OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
517 DAM LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COMPLEX OVER THE BERING SEA
WILL MOVE EAST TO 300NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. AT
850 HPA...TEMPERATURES STEADY THROUGH FRIDAY...SLIGHT WARMING IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN COOLING
TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH 980MB LOW IN THE
SOUTHCENTRAL BERING SEA DEVELOPS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. LOW MOVES
TO JUST NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 985 MB BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN
MOVES SOUTH. 993MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC MOVES TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST
AND NULATO HILLS TODAY AND STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES TO THE WESTERN
INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING AND OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO
MONDAY. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION IN
OUR FORECAST AREA TO BE SNOW AT THIS TIME.

ARCTIC...SOME CHANGE EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. MODIS
11UM BT AT 0755Z SHOWS THE LARGE LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS THAT WAS
THERE YESTERDAY IS HANGING ON. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NO CHANGE
OVER THE AREA...THOUGH A FEW SITES DID SHOW IT CLEARING FOR A
SHORT PERIOD TODAY. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW OVER THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MAINLAND
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH A LITTLE SO EXPECT SOME CLEARING
IN THE PLAINS AREAS. COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE SOME BREAKS BUT IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY. SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST
OF BARROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MODIS 11UM BT AT 0755Z SHOWS
SOME CIRRUS STREAKING OVER THE AREA OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH
TROUGH AND FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED
NORTH SO INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA TODAY WITH
SOME FLURRIES BY EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS NORTON SOUND
NORTH TODAY. WINDS ON THE MAINLAND FROM THE MOUTH OF THE YUKON
RIVER NORTH AND NOME EAST GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH...REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL SEE WINDS 10 TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FLAT
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN 5 TO 15 DEGREES.

INTERIOR...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT WILL STICK WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS
FRIDAY. AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR BEGINNING SATURDAY A
CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. NO
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY THEN SOME COLD AIR PUSHES
IN AS THE FRONT PASSES.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

SDB APR 14

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KDLH 030925
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
425 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

OUR NEXT MAJOR SPRING STORM IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE
ROCKIES...WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ROCKIES WITH TWO SEPARATE
SHORTWAVES WITHIN...ONE OVER MONTANA AND ANOTHER IN THE
COLORADO/UTAH AREA. A JET IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH A
100KT STREAK ACROSS ARIZONA. AT LOWER LEVELS...THERE IS A LARGE MCS
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI...RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM KANSAS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND ON
EAST FROM THERE. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS ALREADY PRODUCING SNOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
PARTS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA...AS THIS INITIAL WAVE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVES NORTH ACROSS THESE AREAS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SWEEP EAST OUT OVER THE PLAINS.
THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TAKES OVER SOMEWHAT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE NORTHERN ONE WEAKENING. THE SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI TODAY...TO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DEVELOP A VERY NICE
AREA OF SNOW FROM NEBRASKA NORTHEAST UP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SLOWLY ROTATING FROM A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST BAND TO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION BEFORE
SWEEPING EAST ON FRIDAY...A FAIRLY CLASSIC DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW
PATTERN. ON TOP OF IT ALL...AM EXPECTING A NICE DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE FOR AT LEAST THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.
THUS...WE ARE LOOKING AT A GOOD 24-36 HOURS OF SNOW...WITH AT LEAST
SOME OF THAT HEAVY SNOW. FOR NOW AM LOOKING AT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...NOT TO MENTION FRIDAY. THE CURRENT AREA OF
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THIS MORNING...WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THIS AFTERNOON THE MAIN AREA
OF SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY IN THE BAND OF
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 700MB...GRADUALLY LOWERING CLOSER TO
850MB TONIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING STRONGLY TODAY...WE
WILL HAVE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PRODUCING
INCREASING WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH THE FETCH ACROSS OPEN WATER
AS CAN BE SEEN IN YESTERDAYS MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR THE HEAD OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING FARTHER NORTHWEST...WITH AN ADVISORY NORTHWEST OF
THAT. ALL BUT KOOCHICHING COUNTY IS IN A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

STORM WILL PULLING OUT ON FRIDAY AND MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
CURRENT TIMING. BY FRI AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHERE
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN..ALTHOUGH NAM IS SLOWER AND ECMWF IS FASTER. THIS
MOVEMENT WILL GRADUALLY END THE SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. STRONG NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL PULL DOWN SOME COLD AIR FROM CANADA BUT
8H TEMPS DOWN TO -10C. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL GIVE A COLD
NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COOL
SATURDAY. THE COOL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE SFC RIDGE BEHIND THE
STORM DRIFTS EAST AND A QUICK CANADIAN SYSTEM SLIPS BY TO THE
NORTH...BUT SETTING UP SOME GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AND INTO
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE CANADIAN SYSTEM ON SUNDAY THE A CHANCE OF SOME MORE FROM A
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ON MONDAY. BUT ANYTHING THAT DOES
FALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. ANOTHER CANADIAN LOW WILL
AFFECT THE NORTHLAND LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

VFR UNTIL THE LIGHT SNOW BEGINS...THEN CIGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR
RANGE AS THE SNOW SPREADS INTO BRD AND HYR AROUND 18Z. SNOW
REACHES DLH BY 21Z...HIB BY 22Z AND INL BY 01Z/04. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WITH ISOLD LIFR
PRIMARILY AT DLH/BRD/HYR. DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE BANDS AND
LOCATION AND NOT LISTED IN THE FORECAST. ADDED A MENTION OF
-SNPL AT HYR BEGINNING AT 01Z.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 24 33 18 / 90 100 100 10
INL 37 21 37 14 / 30 60 40 0
BRD 35 24 38 19 / 100 100 80 0
HYR 37 27 34 18 / 100 100 100 40
ASX 35 26 33 18 / 90 100 100 40

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR MNZ012-019>021-033>038.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR MNZ011-018-025-026.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ121-144>148.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LSZ140>143.

SYNOPSIS...LE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 021022
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
222 AM AKDT WED APR 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT BEYOND THE SHORT TERM WITH THIS
LATEST RUN. GFS/NAM CONTINUE THEIR POOR PERFORMANCE BY TRYING TO
CREATE SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DRY INTERIOR SO WILL REMOVE
IT AGAIN TODAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A REGIME
CHANGE OVER ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE UNDER FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR SO
WILL LEAN ON BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...543 DAM HIGH OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
WILL WEAKEN AS 517 DAM LOW OVER THE HIGH HIGH ARCTIC DROPS TO
NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMPLEX LOW OVER THE
BERING SEA MOVES EAST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA ACROSS NORTON SOUND AND SOUTH OVER COOK INLET
AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 520 DAM LOW OVER THE
EASTERN ALASKA ARCTIC COAST WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE
ALCAN BORDER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER OLD CROW TONIGHT. RIDGE
GETS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AS 514 DAM LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND MOVES
EAST TO OVER BARROW BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SHORTWAVE EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AND BERING STRAIT. 513 DAM LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC THURSDAY MORNING TO OVER DUTCH HARBOR BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

SURFACE...WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
BERING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA. A 983MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON STRENGTHENING THE GRADIENT OVER THE WEST COAST
AND BERING STRAIT. AS WE GET TO THE WEEKEND A BROAD AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WITH AND INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST OVER THE INTERIOR.

ARCTIC...MODIS 11UM BT AT 0712Z SHOWS A LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
HIGH ARCTIC TO THE ARCTIC PLAIN. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE
STRATUS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH PATCHY FOG AND OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND LOWS INTO THE TEENS BELOW.
WINDS VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 MPH.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MODIS 11UM BT AT 0712Z SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE WEST COAST. GENERALLY OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP IT THAT WAY TODAY. WINDS ON THE MAINLAND FROM THE
MOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER NORTH AND NOME EAST GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH...REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE WINDS 10 TO 25 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FLAT NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN 5
TO 15 DEGREES.

INTERIOR...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL NOT
STICK AROUND SO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SUNNY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. RELYING ON PERSISTENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK THEN SOME COOLING ON THE
WEEKEND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

SDB APR 14

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 011128
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
328 AM AKDT TUE APR 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD WITH GOOD
INITIALIZATION AGAINST THE 00Z ANALYSIS. GFS/NAM CONTINUE THEIR
POOR PERFORMANCE BY TRYING TO CREATE SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE DRY INTERIOR SO WILL REMOVE IT AGAIN TODAY. GFS STILL SEEMS
TOO AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING SYSTEMS SO WILL LEAN ON THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN FOR GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...538 DAM HIGH OVER ARCTIC VILLAGE WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE THEN BE ABSORBED BY THE 544
DAM HIGH OVER THE BERING STRAIT. THE 544 DAM HIGH WILL REMAIN
QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING AT 531 DAM. A 522DAM LOW OVER 76N 160W
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO 100 NM NORTH OF DEADHORSE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN CONTINUE TO OVER NORTH CENTRAL YUKON TERRITORY BY
THURSDAY MORNING AT 514 DAM. TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
EXTEND SOUTH OVER ANAKTUVUK PASS THIS MORNING...DRIFTING EAST TO
EXTEND SOUTH OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS TONIGHT...AND THEN EXTEND
SOUTH ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXITING
THE STATE.

SURFACE...WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK EAST
ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
ARCTIC WILL REMAIN STATIONARY. LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC NEAR 76N
160W WILL SLIP SOUTH TODAY TO BE JUST NORTHEAST OF BARROW BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND WILL PERSIST. A
982 MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST TO ATKA ISLAND BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND NEAR DUTCH HARBOR BY FRIDAY MORNING AT 982
MB. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

ARCTIC...STILL SOME STRATUS AND FOG PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AS
SEEN ON MODIS 11UM BT AT 0807Z. WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED TO JUST WEST
OF BARROW THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TO SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...BUT WINDS
WILL STILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
THIS WILL DO MUCH FOR KICKING THE STRATUS OUT OF THE AREA SO WILL
KEEP IT IN THE AREA WITH SOME BREAK IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.
A SLIGHT COOLING OF TEMPERATURES WEST OF BARTER ISLAND NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NICE MODIS 11UM BT AT 0807Z
STILL SHOWS STATUS HANGING AROUND THE COASTAL AREAS FROM THE
BERING STRAIT NORTH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KOTZEBUE SOUND. MOSTLY
CLEAR INLAND AND OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND NORTON SOUND
REGIONS. GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST...WITH LIGHT
WINDS INLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES.

INTERIOR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT SUNNY DURING THE DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT
NIGHT. CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
SINCE MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRY AND MAKE TEMPERATURES COLDER
FOR NO APPARENT REASON. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GUSTY WINDS IN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED VALLEYS DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OF THE HILLSIDES.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

SDB MAR 14

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 311122
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
322 AM AKDT MON MAR 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. INITIALIZED WELL AT 00Z.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN TOO COLD SO WILL CONTINUE
TO USE THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. GFS STILL TRYING TO CREATE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE VERY DRY INTERIOR OF ALASKA SO WILL REMOVE
THEM FROM THE EQUATION FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT TERM. GFS
SEEMS TO AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING SYSTEMS SO WILL LEAN ON THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN FOR GENERAL PATTERN.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...531 DAM LOW OVER AMBLER CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TODAY TO BE OVER YAKUTAT BY TUESDAY MORNING. 537 DAM
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIP SOUTH TO BE OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD UP THE WEST COAST WITH A 548 DAM CLOSED
HIGH BEING PINCHED OFF OVER THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT AND BECOMING
QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. 506 DAM LOW OVER ATKA
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA BY TUESDAY MORNING
THEN DRIFT NORTHWEST.

SURFACE...NOT MUCH OF A FLOW PATTERN OVER THE STATE AGAIN TODAY.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING UP THE WEST COAST WILL IMPROVE
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE AREA KEEPING THE
STRATUS AND FOG BACKED UP AGAINST THE BROOKS RANGE. A 1019MB LOW
NEAR 75N 175E WILL MOVE TO 78N 175W BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE ARCTIC COAST. A 976MB LOW
NEAR AMCHITKA WILL MOVE EAST TO JUST NORTH OF NIKOLSKI BY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN NORTH AS IT DISSIPATES. A 1003MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR
SAND POINT BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES EAST TO NEAR SITKA BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC...STRATUS AND FOG PERSISTING OVER THE AREA SHOWING NOT
SHOWING ANY MOVEMENT. DOES APPEAR TO BE ERODING AT THE EDGES ON
SATELLITE BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO MOVE OUT OR LIFT UNTIL WEAK
FRONT REACHES THE AREA TUESDAY. STICKING WITH PERSISTENCE OF LOW
STRATUS...OCCASIONAL FLURRIES...AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. WILL
CONTINUE THE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT SINCE THERE ARE NO SIGNS
OF IT CLEARING UNTIL THE WEAK FRONT PROVIDES THE DYNAMICS TO MAKE
IT GO AWAY. WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO 15 MPH TODAY SWITCHING TO
SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOLING BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MODIS 11UM BT SHOWS QUITE A BIT
OF LOW STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND SEWARD PENINSULA AND
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE INLAND AREAS. MORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH THE LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS...BUT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE IT WILL PUSH THE STRATUS OUT OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP IT
HANGING AROUND. NO PRECIPITATION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
FLURRIES OUT OF THE STRATUS. CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF Z214
WHICH WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE LATER TODAY TO 15 TO 30 MPH. NO
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

INTERIOR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT SUNNY DURING THE DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT
NIGHT. WILL PUSH PERSISTENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SINCE
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRY AND MAKE TEMPERATURES COLDER FOR NO
APPARENT REASON. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
EAST TO WEST ORIENTED VALLEYS DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OF THE
HILLSIDES.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

SDB MAR 14

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KDLH 242020
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014

A QUIET BUT CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS CLOUDS/FLURRIES
CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS ARE OCCURRING AS
MIXING LAYER DEEPENS TO 6K TO 8K FT THIS AFTERNOON AND LATEST VWP
SHOWS AVG OF 25KTS THROUGH THE SFC/6K LAYER. MOST PERSISTENT AREA
OF CLOUDS/FLURRIES HAS BEEN OVER THE SRN TIER OF ZONES. VERY
LITTLE/NO PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN TIER CLOSER TO APPROACHING FNTL
BDRY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014

LATE TODAY/TONIGHT...MID LVL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER GT LAKES INCREASING
THE DEPTH OF NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. A COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL
BE IN PLACE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
TIME/HEIGHT XSECTS SHOW SOME INCREASING SATURATION IN DGZ LAYER SO
HAVE KEPT FLURRIES IN FCST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MORE PROBABLE
LOCATION FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES. BUFKIT LES TECHNIQUE INDICATES A
QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW MID EVENING AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND A MDT/STRONG DGZ/OMEGA SIGNATURE DEVELOPS. MODIS
IMAGERY TODAY SHOWED A SOMEWHAT LARGER AREA OF OPEN WATER ALONG WRN
EDGE OF SUPERIOR IN ADDITION TO NUMEROUS FISSURES. LIMITING FACTOR
IS THE FCST WIND DIRECTION AS IT MAY BE TOO WESTERLY AT THE TIME OF
MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY. MAY SEE A QUICK COUPLE OF
INCHES ALONG THE GOGEBIC OVERNIGHT. LOWERED MIN TEMPS SOMEWHAT FROM
PREVIOUS FCST USING A BLEND OF COLDER EC/MAV MOS.

TOMORROW...SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
GENERALLY A SUBSIDENT FLOW ALOFT. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH ACTIVITY IN THE HYDROMETEOR DEPARTMENT. MAX TEMPS
REMAIN WELL BLO CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON WHAT COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SYSTEM FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
THAT A HIGH PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THEN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY...BUT THE MODELS STILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...INCLUDING THE
GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF/FIM...GENERALLY INDICATE THE LOW WILL EITHER MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS...OR AS FAR NORTH AS WELL NORTH AS THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THE GEM AND NAM HAVE THE MOST NORTHERN
TRACKS...THE ECMWF AND FIM THE MOST SOUTHERN TRACKS...AND THE GFS IS
IN BETWEEN. I LEANED ON THE GFS.

THE STORM SYSTEM TRACK WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH PCPN THE NORTHLAND WILL
GET...AS PCPN TYPE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIXTURE
OF RAIN AND SNOW CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM IN THE 30S. THIS COULD BE THE
CASE IN AT LEAST OUR SE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN PCPN
TYPE LOOKS TO BE SNOW WITH DEEP SATURATION ALOFT.

I INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES...PCPN AMOUNTS...AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
QUITE A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
AFFECT THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY...THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EAST TO SE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD TAP
INTO THE AREAS OF OPEN WATER TO RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE SNOW INTENSITY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY INCREASE AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE IOWA OR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA REGION. THE WINDS OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY BECOME NE AND THIS WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE TWIN PORTS AREA AND
NW WISCONSIN. THE SNOW AND PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT IT COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THIS LATEST FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD 6 TO 10 INCREASE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH THE MOST FROM DULUTH AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY GET ABOUT 3 TO 6 INCHES. WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND CONSIDER A ISSUING
A WATCH AT SOME POINT TOMORROW.

BESIDES THE FOCUS ON THIS POTENTIAL STORM...TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
MOSTLY BE BELOW ZERO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH. IT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER OR
WARMER THANT THIS FORECAST. IT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF A COLD
FRONT THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
PCPN...EITHER SNOW AND/OR RAIN...OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING MVFR AND
VFR CIGS IN THE 2 TO 4 KFT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE CIGS
COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR
OR IFR VSBYS. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25
KNOTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

I AM NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
MAYBE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE NW WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
LATE TONIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -2 17 0 28 / 10 10 0 40
INL -9 15 -6 28 / 10 10 0 60
BRD 0 20 2 35 / 10 10 0 10
HYR 0 18 -7 34 / 20 20 10 30
ASX 2 17 -2 31 / 30 10 0 30

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KDLH 230724
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
224 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

VERY QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

DOMINANT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST TODAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
TRAILING TO THE NW. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN CYCLONIC AND COLD
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT S/W DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL
TRACK FROM THE NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES TODAY AND MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE AREA FREE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP. THE WAVES WILL GRADUALLY PHASE TOGETHER LATER
IN THE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER ERN
CANADA LIFTS EWD. ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT OR TRACE AMTS OF QPF/SNOW
BEFORE MONDAY EVENING AS THE MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE FAIRLY DRY.

THE COLD NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20.
THE BREEZY NW WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE JANUARY
INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 0 TO 10. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE S/W DROPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECTING
TO SEE HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...THEN
UNDERGO GRADUAL WARMING. A MID-LATE WEEK SYSTEM COULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND.

A SHORTWAVE AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MODIS IMAGERY FROM
YESTERDAY CONTINUES SHOW A LOT OF ICE COVER OVER THE LAKE...WITH
OPEN WATER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...BUT THE ICE COVER SHOULD LIMIT
SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 24. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL START TO IMPACT THE REGION AS SOON AS
WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT FORCING LOOKS
WEAK. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL OCCUR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL HANDLE THE LOW DIFFERENTLY
WITH VARYING IMPACTS FOR THE NORTHLAND. WE INCREASED POPS THURSDAY
CLOSER TO WHAT THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION ALL POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO HIT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE NORTHLAND THE HARDEST.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW APPROACHES...AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE THIRTIES BY THURSDAY. STAY TUNED TO LATER
FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM.

WE WENT DRY FOR FRIDAY...BUT IF THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...WE
WILL NEED TO ADD A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO AT LEAST THE EAST HALF OF THE
NORTHLAND. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS MINNESOTA THROUGH THE
MORNING...PUSHING EAST OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 17 -1 23 3 / 0 0 20 20
INL 15 -6 20 -5 / 0 0 30 20
BRD 21 5 28 3 / 10 0 20 10
HYR 18 -1 26 3 / 0 0 20 30
ASX 18 0 25 5 / 0 0 20 30

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GRANING

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXHW60 PHFO 221358
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
358 AM HST SAT MAR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WILL TAKE OVER STATEWIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.DISCUSSION...
AN 1142Z MODIS PASS SHOWS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS LINGERING NEAR
THE BIG ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT DUE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ISLANDS...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO A JET STREAK TO
OUR NE...IS KEEPING MAINLY THE BIG ISLAND IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS. NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE WINDWARD SIDES...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BIG ISLAND INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE COULD BRIEFLY SPREAD TO OAHU THIS
WEEKEND...SO RAIN CHANCES WERE INCREASED A BIT PRIMARILY FOR
WINDWARD SECTIONS.

THE AIRMASS WILL DEFINITIVELY STABILIZE AND DRY OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A RETURN TO DRIER TRADEWIND WEATHER STATEWIDE WITH
QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 31N WILL SHIFT S OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A NEW HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE W. THE
TRADES WILL RELAX JUST A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE NEW HIGH
PASSES N OF THE ISLANDS MON NIGHT...WHEN WE EXPECT A BUMP IN THE
TRADES ONCE AGAIN.

AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA CONTINUES FOR TEMPO MTN OBSC FOR MOLOKAI...LANAI...MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO CLD AND SHRA. TEMPO MTN OBSC IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN THESE AREAS. COULD SEE
MORE AREAS OF LOCAL MTN OBSC SHOW UP ON SATURDAY FROM LOCAL
AFTERNOON UPSLOPE SHRA/+TSRA OVER THE BIG ISLAND. AIRMET TANGO
CONTINUES TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS ON KAUAI AND OAHU...AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.

.MARINE...
THE BUOYS AT WAIMEA AND HANALEI SUGGEST THAT THE NW SWELL IS STILL
LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SURF. THUS WILL EXTEND THE
ADVISORY A LITTLE LONGER...THROUGH 10 AM. THE MORNING SURF
OBSERVATIONS WILL HELP TO DETERMINE WHETHER IT NEEDS TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY
AREAS TODAY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL
RELAX ENOUGH TO ALLOW IT TO BE DROPPED THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE SCA
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEW HIGH BUILDS
IN TO THE N.

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM HST THIS MORNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

R BALLARD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KMFR 211141 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
441 AM PDT FRI MAR 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. THIS IS BRINGING VERY GUSTY WINDS TO THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND TO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, ALOFT NORTHWEST FLOW IS
BRINGING A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE AREA TODAY BUT EXPECT
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THEN ON THE WEEKEND , A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AS
WELL AS CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT EAST WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANGE TO A WETTER AND COOLER
REGIME.

THIS MORNING SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE AREA. ALSO
LIGHT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED IN MANY INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS. AS A
RESULT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT
AREAS OF FREEZING AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN WEST SIDE
VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING AREAS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY, THE
APPLEGATE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY. GIVEN
DEW POINTS IN THESE AREAS RANGING FROM 22 TO 30 DEGREES F EARLY
THIS MORNING, EXPECT LOCATIONS THAT ARE PROTECTED FROM WIND TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT ISOLATED PRECIPITATION OVER
MODOC COUNTY AND OVER AREAS FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHILE THE NAM AND RUC KEEP THE AREA DRY. GIVEN THE LACK OF
GOOD MOISTURE EXPECT MAINLY JUST SOME CLOUD COVER WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE, ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING, INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING.

THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN
SOME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY FOR SOME COASTAL AREAS AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVES INLAND OVER THE REGION, THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
INLAND AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL WEAKEN. MEANWHILE INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR
INLAND ON MONDAY.

THEN MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MOIST AND COOL
PATTERN DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW SETS
UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SERIES OF
FRONTS INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE IS A MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH MODELS SHOW APPROACHING THE COAST MONDAY
EVENING AND MOVING INLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH,
MAINLY ABOVE 7000 FEET, AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN LOWER BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 5000 FEET. /CC

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/12Z TAF CYCLE.

LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPED IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO.
THIS WILL BRING MVFR TO KRBG FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
BEFORE BURNING OFF BY AROUND 17Z. PATCHY IFR FOG IS ALSO EVIDENT IN
THE MODIS-VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE COQUILLE VALLEY AND THE LOWER UMPQUA BASIN NEAR
REEDSPORT. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THOUGH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO AROUND 30KT WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST NEAR KOTH. SPILDE

.MARINE...NORTH GALES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO TODAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. GALES WILL NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER ZONE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING STEEP TO
VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 40 NM
OFFSHORE. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL EXIST OVER THE
ENTIRE WATERS. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT, SO WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD EASE SOMEWHAT INTO SATURDAY. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WETTER AND WINDIER PATTERN WITH
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL FRONTS MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. SPILDE

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ024-026.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
CAZ081.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ350-356.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR PZZ356.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-356-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PZZ370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

MAS/CC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KDLH 160858
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
358 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

LARGE SFC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS ALLOWING
TEMPS TO PLUMMET ALONG BORDERLAND. -22F AT KCDD AND -21F AT ASH
LAKE SO FAR WITH A FEW HRS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING REMAINING. A
MESOSCALE AREA OF CLOUDS/FLURRIES HAS DEVELOPED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR
THE TWIN PORTS IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WIND CIRCULATING AROUND
LARGE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH. YESTERDAY MODIS SHOWED PLENTY OF OPEN
WATER UPSTREAM OF THE ICE COVERED HEAD OF THE LAKE. 88D RETURNS OF
APPROX 15/20 DBZ WITH 10SM -SN REPORTED AT KDYT. THERE IS A CORE
OF 30 DBZ OVER THE LAKE SO WE MAY SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW
BETWEEN DULUTH AND TWO HARBORS IN NEXT FEW HRS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL ADVECT ALONG NORTH SHORE COASTAL
ZONES THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD EARLY
THIS MORNING MAY TEMPORARILY ALLOW SUBSIDENCE TO ELIMINATE THIS
POTENTIAL. SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RETURN FLOW INCREASING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WRN CWA AS AN
APPROACHING SFC/MID LVL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. SNOW
WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AS SATURATION OCCURS FROM
TOP DOWN. HIGHEST PROB OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 2 IN MN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THE THERMAL
FORCING...FRONTOGENESIS..ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME
WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER TOTALS
IN ELEVATED TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT
CONTRIBUTES ADDITIONAL ASCENT. THE LATEST GEM IS INDICATING MUCH
HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE ARROWHEAD BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS AN
OUTLIER. LATEST GUESSTIMATES SUGGEST 24HR TOTAL OF ABOUT 2 TO 4
INCHES NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN PORTS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. PTYPE ISSUES MAY ARISE OVER SWRN AND EXTREME WRN CWA
DURING THE DAY AS THE SREF PTYPES AND SOME OF THE NWP SNDGS SUGGEST.
MDL THERMAL FIELDS COMPLICATED BY THE COLLAPSING HEIGHTS THROUGH
THE DAY WITH FOCUS FOR SFC LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEST
INTO THE CTRL PLAINS. BY LATE MONDAY MID LVL FLOW IS FCST TO
FEATURE SOMEWHAT OF A CONFLUENT NATURE BETWEEN HUDSON BAY TROF AND
NRN ROCKIES SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THIS
STORM WITH INCREASING INTEREST FOR A FEW DAYS NOW. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT...THOUGH NEARER TERMS GETTING A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT...BUT HAS BEEN DRIFTING THE SURFACE LOW TRACK SOUTHEAST
ON THE LAST 3 RUNS...BRINGING THE TRACK OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST AS WELL. IN GENERAL PREFER A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE NAM APPEARS TOO FAR
NORTHWEST...AND THE GEM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO FAR SOUTHEAST AS
COMPARED TO THE BLEND. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NEGATIVE TILT IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IS NO LONGER AS APPARENT...WITH
MODELS A BIT MORE CONSISTENT IN THIS TRACK. THE SURFACE LOW NOW
MOVES ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DIPPING ACROSS IOWA TUESDAY AND THEN MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD TRACK FOR BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME
HEADLINES...PERHAPS EVEN WARNINGS. HOWEVER...FOR NOW AM KEEPING TO
A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND THIS DISCUSSION FOR
NOW...AND WE CAN CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AWHILE LONGER.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE MUCH QUIETER...WITH ONLY A
SHORTWAVE GOING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW MOST
OF THIS WAVE SHOULD MISS US TO THE SOUTH...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT WE HAVE ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL...BUT COOLING OFF AGAIN
FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE MN/NW WI
OVERNIGHT..RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE OR LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. A SMALL AREA OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS COULD
AFFECT KDLH AND/OR KHYR FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE 10Z..BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION IN EITHER TAF AT THIS TIME.

RAPID RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED 14-17Z SUNDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT RAPIDLY TIGHTENS IN STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO RAPIDLY THICKEN..WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING TO
AFFECT KINL AROUND 00Z MONDAY..AND KHIB/KDLH BY THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 23 14 28 21 / 10 60 50 50
INL 24 15 34 21 / 10 60 40 30
BRD 25 18 34 26 / 0 60 30 70
HYR 23 11 29 22 / 0 60 60 20
ASX 23 11 29 22 / 10 40 60 30

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...MILLER

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 140820
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST FRI MAR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CDFNT TO THE WEST OF 60W EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG 20N
SAT THEN DISSIPATE BY MON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVR THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AS
PREFRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL FOCUS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH COAST TODAY. CDFNT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE AREA ON SAT STALLING ALONG 20N WITH BEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP BETWEEN 19N AND 20N. SHOWERS
EXPECTED AGAIN MAINLY ON THE SOUTH COAST SAT DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUN LEADING TO GRADUAL
DRYING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS QUICKLY MON THRU TUE LEADING
TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SHARP DRYING. RED FLAG CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY ON THE SOUTH COAST MON-TUE AS WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN
IN RESPONSE TO STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH OVR THE ECNTRL ATLC.
EVEN AS RIDGE WEAKENS LATER IN THE WEEK...THE LOCAL AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC KEEPING
CONDITIONS VERY WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER NOT ONLY ON THE SOUTH
COAST BUT ALSO ON THE NORTH COAST WHERE FUELS HAVE CURED.

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA AT TIMES THRU TONITE WI CHC OF MVFR IN THE
SHRA...OTHW VFR. SCT SHRA OVR S/SW PR ON SAT AFT WI SOME OBSCD MTNS.
WIND BLO FL100 E-NE 5-15 KT THRU SAT.

.MARINE...LOCAL AREA UNDER A COL THIS MORNING YIELDING LIGHT WINDS
AND NEAR FLAT SEAS. NNW SWELLS EXPECTED TO BUILD RAPIDLY FRI NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8 FT SAT ACCORDING TO LATEST WW3. SCA MAY
BECOME NECESSARY FOR AMZ710.

.FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE GOOD RAINS SO FAR THIS MONTH AT CABO ROJO
AND GUANICA WITH 0.82 AND 1.41 INCHES RESPECTIVELY...SIG LONG TERM
RAINFALL DEFICITS REMAIN AT THESE TWO STATIONS PER LATEST KBDI
READINGS NEAR 600. THE LATEST ERC AND KBDI INDICES STILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILES USING THE CLIMATOLOGY AVAILABLE SINCE
2004. THE OVERALL VEGETATIVE HEALTH ACROSS THE SOUTH REMAINS POOR
AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO BURNING WITH HUGE AMOUNTS OF FUEL LOADING BASED
ON RECENT MODIS NDVI IMAGERY. FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY MON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND TIGHT PRES GRADIENT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 73 / 0 10 20 20
STT 83 76 84 76 / 0 20 20 10

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

54/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KAPX 140659
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
259 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THIS EVENING...BRINGING IN A SURGE OF WARMER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN
MICHIGAN TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MAKE
ITS APPROACH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BRINGING THE CHANCE
FOR JUST A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH
DRIER BUT QUITE COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLE SOMETIME TOWARD MIDWEEK OF NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

...DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BUT GETTING COLD TONIGHT...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE.

CONFIDENCE:

PRETTY DECENT FOR BOTH DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND FOR
MINIMAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT.

CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND EVOLUTION:

A VERY WAVY...YET NOT TOO AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH TROUGHING
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND WORKING INTO THE DAKOTAS...WITH RIDGING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE WEST COAST. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IN
THE DAKOTAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH NICE SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT IS WORKING
INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT HAS ALREADY SHOVED EAST
OF US...ALONG WITH A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH ONLY SOME
LEFTOVER LOW CLOUD IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER. THIS
RESULTING FROM LAST VESTIGES OF SHALLOW OVERLAKE INSTABILITY...WHICH
IS GETTING ERODED/SQUASHED FROM CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA IN FAIRLY
BREEZY S/SW FLOW. MODELS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME WITH MOISTURE.
THE AIR MASS IS PRETTY DRY...AND THE WARM ADVECTION IS NOT ALLOWING
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SUGGESTED DRIZZLE FROM SAID
MODELS (WHICH WE WERE HIGHLY SKEPTICAL OF YESTERDAY). RATHER...JUST
SOME SCATTERED-BKN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD IS SEEN IN STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT IN WARM SECTOR OVER NRN MICHIGAN. THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT
(AT LEAST THE INITIAL COLD FRONT) IS DRAPED ACROSS MN AND THE BORDER
OF IA/SD..AND IS COMPLETELY MOISTURE-STARVED WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER
FORCING OVER IT. THE FORCING ARRIVES OVER NRN MICHIGAN TODAY ALONG
WITH THIS FRONT...WITH WAA AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING TO USHER IN DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR. DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE
SEEMINGLY THE KEY FEATURES FOR WHETHER PRECIP CAN FALL...BUT
CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT IS...SERIOUSLY DOUBTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
IN COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP. A SECONDARY/STRONGER PUSH OF COLDER AIR
ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN UPPER AND TONIGHT FOR NRN
LOWER. CONVERGENCE WANES WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH NW
WINDS SETTING UP AND DEEPENING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY...BUT
AGAIN...WITH MOSTLY ICE COVERED WATERS OUTSIDE OF SOME OPEN AREAS
OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN LAKE HURON.

WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:

LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS WILL ERODE THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH ONLY
SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS ABOVE THAT THROUGH MID MORNING.
THEN...SCATTERED HIGHER LEVEL CU AND BKN MID CLOUDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (MAYBE
A SKIFF OF SNOW AT THE ONSET?). TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
40S...WARMEST IN DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF NE LOWER. S/SW WINDS A TOUCH
BREEZY SHIFTING WEST. LOWER CLOUD ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN UPPER AND TONIGHT FOR NRN LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
NOTICEABLY. MAYBE SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS MAINLY NW LOWER AND
THE ROGERS CITY-ALPENA AREAS. LOWS BOTTOMING OUT FROM 10 TO 15F IN
EASTERN UPPER...TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER HALF OF THE 20S IN NRN
LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

WELL...ENJOY TODAY'S EXPECTED WARMTH...BECAUSE UNFORTUNATELY IT
APPEARS THE FREEZER DOOR IS ONCE AGAIN ABOUT TO OPEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND PARTS OF NEXT WEEK (THOUGH THIS FORECASTER PERSONALLY
WISHES SOMEONE WOULD WELD THAT DOOR SHUT). PER MULTI-MODEL TRENDS
OVER MANY DAYS NOW...THERE REALLY APPEARS TO BE NO DISCERNIBLE
SHIFT IN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN ON THE HORIZON AS PERSISTENT
TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF ALASKA HELPS MAINTAIN DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...THUS SENDING
HEIGHTS FALLING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM AS THE SEEMING PERMANENT TROUGH
FEATURE OF THE PAST 4 MONTHS HANGS TOUGH. THE GOOD NEWS IN THIS
WHOLE SETUP IS THAT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL... SO THOUGH IT WILL BE COLD...AT LEAST THERE ARE SOME
PROSPECTS FOR THAT EVER-HIGHER IN THE SKY MARCH SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE MURKY HEADING INTO
MIDWEEK...WITH AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESSY STORM SYSTEM.
THAT POTENTIAL AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FORECAST ISSUES AS WE PUSH INTO THE 3RD WEEK OF MARCH.

COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE STRIPS OUT THROUGH
THE MORNING. INCOMING AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO FEATURE H8 TEMPS
SOMEWHERE AROUND -18C...WHICH IS PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO GET INTO LAKE
CONCERNS...THOUGH THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF ICE COVER ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS (THOUGH IT HAS MOVED AROUND THE PAST WEEK OR
SO). BASED ON OUR LAST AVAILABLE CLEAR MODIS IMAGERY...IT WOULD
APPEAR THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS ON NORTHERN LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON
TO PROVIDE AT THE VERY LEAST SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...THOUGH THE
FETCH LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 20 MILES AT BEST...ALL WHILE EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR IS JUST SOCKED IN WITH THICK ICE. GIVEN THE UNKNOWN ABOUT
JUST WHERE ICE HAS MOVED AND/OR REDEVELOPED...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
LOW REGARDING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE...BUT HAVE TO BELIEVE
THE LAKES WILL FIND A WAY TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE SOMETHING ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER. AFTER ALL...JUST LOOK AT WEDNESDAY WHEN NORTHEAST
FLOW OFF HURON WAS ABLE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. POPS WILL BE INTENTIONALLY KEPT LOW AND CLOUD COVER
INCREASED...PARTICULARLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

MOISTURE FURTHER THINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN WORKS THROUGH THE REGION (STOP ME IF YOU'VE HEARD
THAT SETUP BEFORE). AIRMASS LOOKS RIDICULOUSLY DRY WITH PWAT VALUES
DOWN AROUND 0.04 INCHES/H8 DEW POINTS PUSHING -40C...AND BASED ON
SIMILAR SETUPS THE PAST MONTH OR TWO AND EXPECTED SHIFTING OF WINDS
TO THE NORTH...HAVE TO BELIEVE ANY RESIDUAL LAKE CLOUDS/FLURRIES
WILL GET SHUT DOWN QUICKLY. THAT SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
BUT DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT WINDS MAY STAY COUPLED FOR AT LEAST A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE HIGH DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL
AFTER 09Z. STILL...LOWS BELOW ZERO PROBABLY A GOOD BET FOR THOSE
USUAL COLD SPOTS...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY STRUGGLING THROUGH THE
TEENS...THOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD WORK ITS MAGIC AND PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE.

PROBABLY ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE RIDGE AXIS LAYS OVERHEAD...BUT UPSTREAM WARM ADVECTION ASCENT
WILL BE UNDERWAY INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS AN AXIS OF HEIGHT FALLS
WORKS ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HELPING INCITE CYCLOGENESIS
SOMEWHERE TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY INVOLVING
THIS PIECE OF ENERGY AND THE SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF ITS SURFACE
RESPONSE INTO MIDWEEK...WITH RECENT MODEL TRENDS NOT EXACTLY
OFFERING INCREASED CONFIDENCE. WHILE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS WE GET
CLOSER...THE BASIC GIST DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY
BUT WITH LOADS OF DRY AIR DOWN LOW HINDERING ANY PRECIP CHANCES UP
THIS WAY. INSTEAD...IT APPEARS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE
LATE TUESDAY INTO ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
SOMEWHERE NEARBY. THAT EXACT TRACK WILL OF COURSE HAVE HUGE
IMPLICATIONS ON WHAT TYPE OR TYPES OF PRECIP WE END UP SEEING HERE
IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT AT THE MOMENT...ALL TYPES ARE ON THE
TABLE. GIVEN THIS IS MANY DAYS OUT WITH LOTS OF ROOM FOR
CHANGES...WILL JUST KEEP THE GENERIC RAIN OR SNOW MENTION
GOING...BUT NO DOUBT THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASINGLY BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FOCUS AFTER WE CLEAR THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

...FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...

AIR MASS IS MUCH DRIER THAN ALL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. SHALLOW
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY IS ALLOWING MVFR CIGS TO EXPAND INTO APN AND
BACK TOWARD MBL. WARM ADVECTION INTO THIS CLOUD LAYER THROUGH THE
NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY EAT AWAY AT IT...LEAVING SCATTERED MID CLOUD
IN STEEP LAPSE RATES REGIME AHEAD OF INCOMING LOW PRESSURE AND A
COLD FRONT FOR TODAY. MOISTURE IS LACKING ALONG THIS FRONT...AND
AS IT ROLLS THROUGH TODAY...EXPECTING LITTLE TO HAPPEN...ALTHOUGH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL ROAM THE
AIRPORTS. A SECONDARY TROUGH/SURGE OF COLD AIR BLOWS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND AM EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CIGS...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH MAYBE SOME FLURRIES AROUND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR
TVC/MBL.

WIND WILL GUST 15-20KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING AOB 10KTS
OVERNIGHT AS THEY SHIFT MORE WESTERLY.

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 122055
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
455 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH CHILLY AIR MOVING TOWARD LOWER GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN
WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. FOR OUR AREA...NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS LIMITED OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR /MAINLY
NEAR ISLE ROYALE AND JUST EAST OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA/ LED TO CLOUDS
AND FLURRIES EARLIER TODAY MAINLY OVER NCNTRL CWA AND NEAR KEWEENAW
BAY...BUT SFC HIGH WITH VERY DRY AIR PUT END TO THAT BY EARLY AFTN.
SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...WHICH ALLOWED FOR CRYSTAL
CLEAR MODIS SATELLITE IMAGE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES
ACROSS UPR LAKES TONIGHT LEADING TO VERY COLD NIGHT OVER THE CWA.
LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING BENEATH THE RIDGE WERE BLO 30 BLO OVER MUCH
OF NORTHERN ONTARIO. THOUGH H95 TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EVEN ON PERIFERY OF BITTER
COLD AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS AT FAVORED COLD SPOTS FALLING
TO LESS THAN 20 BLO. LATER TONIGHT...AFT 06Z...HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE H7
SPILLING OUT OF MANITOBA THIS AFTN BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER WEST HALF
OF CWA WHICH ALONG WITH A LGT SOUTH WIND MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BEGIN
RISE...ESPECIALLY WEST. COLDEST TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE OVER EAST CWA
WHERE THERE IS LESS IMPACT FM THE CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING RETURN
SOUTH WINDS.

SHORTWAVE CROSSING FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
RESULTS IN H7-H5/H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER ONTARIO BUT THAT
STAYS MOSTLY NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. THUS...OVERALL BETTER CHANCES FOR
SNOW REMAIN OUT OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. YET...CANNOT COUNT OUT SOME
LGT SNOW OR PROBABLY FLURRIES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SIGNIFICANT
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OF SHORTWAVE OVER CWA /H85 TEMPS RISE FM -17C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN TONIGHT TO -2C BY THURSDAY EVENING/. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE BEST MERGER OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ OF
TEMPS BLO -10C AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL RH WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY AFTN
OVER THE EASTERN CWA. MAYBE A BIT OF HELP OFF LK MICHIGAN TOO THOUGH
ICE COVERAGE IS PRETTY EXTENSIVE. KEPT POPS LOW FOR ALL AREAS THOUGH
AS PRIMARY FORCING FOR SNOW STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL SHOW A LARGE RANGE. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 925-850MB
OCCURRING EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW READINGS OVER FAR WEST TO
BE AROUND 40 DEGREES. COOLER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH FLOW
OFF LK MICHIGAN RESULTS IN READINGS ONLY AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
FAR EAST CWA. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 30S. IF NOT FOR THE EXPECTED BKN
CLOUD COVER...WOULD FORECAST EVEN WARMER TEMPS FOR THE WESTERN CWA
SIMILAR TO REGIONAL GEM AND ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

THRU THE LONG TERM...THE OVERALL PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN THE THEME OF
THE COLD SEASON WILL CONTINUE. WITH VARYING DEGREES OF WRN NAMERICA
RIDGING OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...A MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN OVER ERN
NAMERICA. EVEN LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...GFS RUNS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF CANADIAN ENSEMBLES POINT TOWARD
CONTINUED PERSISTENCE OF ERN TROFFING DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGING ALONG OR
NEAR THE W COAST. SO...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON MOST DAYS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. THAT SAID...WITH A NUMBER OF PROGRESSIVE
FEATURES TRANSLATING THRU THE MEAN BACKGROUND PATTERN...TEMPS WILL
FLUCTUATE A FAIR AMOUNT RATHER THAN BEING PERSISTENTLY WAY BLO
NORMAL. THIS PATTERN DOESN'T FAVOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR UPPER MI
THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LAKES WILL ONLY BE
AFFECTED BY CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVES PERIODICALLY. PLUS...MOSTLY ICE
COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
LES.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ESE THRU THE
DAKOTAS AND REACHING ERN MN/NW WI FRI MORNING WHILE ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW MOVES FROM VCNTY OF LAKE WINNIPEG TO VCNTY OF CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE...PCPN WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY
ALONG AND N OF SFC LOW TRACK WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER
FORCING COMBINE TO OVERCOME DRY AIR. THUS...SNOW SHOULD MISS MOST OF
UPPER MI TO THE N AND E. HOWEVER...WITH MID LEVELS REMAINING MOSTLY
DRY...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER -FZDZ WHERE S TO SW WINDS UPSLOPE...BUT
HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE NAM/GFS OVER-FORECASTING SHALLOW
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS THEY OFTEN DO. IF SOME -FZDZ DOES OCCUR...BEST
CHC WOULD BE IN 2 AREAS. FIRST IS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WHERE S TO
SW WINDS UP LAKE MICHIGAN ADVECT SOME MOISTURE N OVER ICE COVER
WHICH WILL PACK BACK INTO THE N END OF THE LAKE UNDER S/SW WINDS.
SECOND IS OVER THE NW FCST AREA WHERE WINDS VEER TO AN UPSLOPE W
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FRI MORNING. WILL
INCLUDE LOW POPS...MOSTLY SCHC...IN BOTH AREAS.

DEEP MOISTURE WRAPS THRU THE FCST AREA AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS E ACROSS
NRN WI/UPPER MI FRI...FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF WAVES SWINGING THRU
THE UPPER LAKES FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. EXPECT SOME -SHSN ACROSS MOST
OF THE FCST AREA FRI-FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N. MIGHT SEE
SOME RAIN MIXED IN AS WELL FRI BEFORE COOLER AIR ARRIVES. IF THE
SHARPER WIND SHIFT ALONG TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT BEHIND SFC LOW
MATERIALIZES AS THE NAM SHOWS...THEN THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF FAIRLY
DECENT SNOW ACROSS THE W AND NW AS THE FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA FRI
AFTN/EVENING. IF THERE WASN'T SO MUCH ICE ON THE LAKE...THERE WOULD
BE A PERIOD OF HVY SNOW FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST MDT LES INTO SAT
MORNING. EVEN AS IT IS...THE NAM GENERATES PCPN AMOUNTS OF 0.2 TO
0.4 INCHES ACROSS THE KEWEEENAW FRI AND SPREADING S ACROSS FAR WRN
UPPER MI FRI NIGHT ALONG COLD FRONT. WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
FOR NOW...WILL ONLY INCLUDE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES. ANY
LINGERING -SHSN SHOULD GRADUALLY END OR DIMINISH TO FLURRIES DURING
THE DAY SAT AS DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 FRI...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS FRI NIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD THEN RISE VERY LITTLE SAT AS ARCTIC AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA
ON NORTHERLY WINDS. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY FALL A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE N AS THE ARCTIC CHILL IS MAINTAINED AS THE AIR FLOWS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ALBEDO ICE/SNOW COVERED LAKE. TEMPS MAY END UP IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SAT AFTN.

WITH DRYING AIR MASS AND ANY OPEN WATER AREAS OR BKN ICE FREEZING UP
AS WINDS DIMINISH...SKIES SHOULD TREND TO MAINLY CLEAR SAT NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A BITTERLY COLD NIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST 15PCT OF
NORMAL). SFC HIGH CENTER WILL STILL BE OFF TO THE NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO IT WON'T BE A PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
HOWEVER...TRENDS ARE FOR HIGH TO RIDGE INTO UPPER MI A LITTLE
QUICKER...OR IN THE CASE OF THE GEM...THE HIGH DOES REACH UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. WILL OPT FOR MINS IN MANY CASES WELL BLO THE LOWEST
GUIDANCE...WITH THE LOWEST TEMPS OVER THE W...CLOSER TO APPROACHING
SFC HIGH. EXPECT MINS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO E AND
TEENS BLO ZERO W WITH TRADITIONAL COLDS SPOTS OVER THE INTERIOR W
WELL DOWN INTO THE -20S...POTENTIALLY -30F. IF SFC HIGH PRES ARRIVES
QUICKER...TEMPS WILL BE COLDER ACROSS THE BOARD WITH MORE INTERIOR
COLD SPOTS REACHING -30F OR LOWER.

SUNDAY WILL START SUNNY...AND THEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE W DURING THE AFTN. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
MID MAR AS MORNING 850MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -18 TO -21C. WITH SFC HIGH
DRIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES...IT WILL BE COLDEST NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL BE OFF THE ICE COVER THRU THE DAY. HIGHS
PROBABLY WON'T GET MUCH ABOVE 10F ALONG THE LAKE...AND MAY EVEN STAY
BLO 10F AT SOME LOCATIONS. IN THE INTERIOR...SUNSHINE WORKING ON THE
LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN SHOULD HELP TEMPS RISE TO AROUND
20. MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST SFC
HIGH MOVES AWAY AND HOW FAST HIGH/MID CLOUDS INCREASE. TEMPS OVER
THE E HAVE THE BEST CHC TO PLUMMET IN THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
STEADY. WILL INCLUDE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO IN THAT AREA WITH
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO W. IT IS NOTED THAT THE ECWMF IS
TRENDING TO HOLD MORE HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER LAKES SUN NIGHT...A
TREND THAT CONTINUES ON INTO MON/TUE/WED AS WELL. IF SO...SUN NIGHT
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN REFLECTED IN THIS FCST.

MON THRU WED...AS JUST MENTIONED...THE ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD
MAINTAINING MORE SFC HIGH PRES INTO THE UPPER LAKES MON THRU WED AS
IT KEEPS DEEPER TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA INTO THE NE CONUS. THIS
RESULTS IN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC TO BE
SHUNTED FARTHER S...MISSING THE UPPER LAKES. SINCE THE GEM HAS A
SIMILAR LOOK...WILL TEND TO FAVOR THESE SOLUTIONS AND KEEP ANY
EXPLICIT MENTION OF SNOW OUT OF THE FCST MON-WED. IF THE ECMWF IDEA
IS CORRECT...TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE LOWER THAN REFLECTED IN THIS
FCST...ESPECIALLY SO AT NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT KSAW WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT WINDS BY THIS
EVENING. MID CLOUDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AT ALL THE TAF SITES
AND THESE WILL GRADUALLY LOWER ON THURSDAY. LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY
OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES...BUT DID NOT MENTION ATTM.
NO REAL REDUCTION TO VSBY IS EXPECTED FROM ANY SNOW THAT WOULD OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 453 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

AFTER LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25
KTS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SETTLE
DOWN BRIEFLY BELOW 20 KTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WINDS DECREASE
TO LESS THAN 20 KTS BY SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KDLH 121456
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
956 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM ABOUT SILVER BAY TO THE
TWIN PORTS...EAST TO ASHLAND. THE STRONGEST ECHOES/LOWEST VSBYS
WERE OCCURRING FROM TWO HARBORS TO THE TWIN PORTS. SATELLITE SHOWS
THE TWO MAIN BANDS IMPACTING OUR CWA HAVE SOURCE REGIONS FROM OPEN
WATER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WITH A SECOND AREA OF OPEN WATER ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE. THE DLH WRF SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BACK SOME THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND THAT SHOULD START
TO LIMIT THE RESIDENCE TIME OVER OPEN WATER. MODIS IMAGERY FROM
THE 10TH/11TH SHOWED THE ICE HAD THINNED OVER PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
SO WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE.

WE UPDATED GRIDS TO INCREASE POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS THIS MORNING.
WE PUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 1-2 INCHES IN THE TWIN PORTS AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 744 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE DULUTH AREA. KDLH
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOW SHOWERS STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST...BUT REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED DRAMATICALLY.
THINK SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE
BUT THE HEAVIEST HAS MOVED OFF. WE SAW UP TO 7 INCHES OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKES. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ZERO
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. SHOULD DEFINITELY BE A
COLDER DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

AT 330 AM...A NARROW BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUED ACROSS FAR
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WE HAD RECEIVED 2 1/2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AT
THE AIRPORT,..AND A LOCAL METEOROLOGIST JUST SOUTHEAST OF HEAR IN
THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND REPORTED 4 1/4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. THE BAND
WAS VERY NARROW...AS IT WAS LARGELY PERPETUATED BY A NARROW AREA
OF OPEN WATER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. HOWEVER IT HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE IT WAS
LARGELY CLEAR ACROSS THE REST OF NE MN...WITH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH
OF NW WI. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WERE FOUND ACROSS NW WI.

HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR ZONE 37...WHICH
IS SOUTHERN SAINT LOUIS AND CARLTON COUNTIES. WHILE THE SNOWFALL
WAS HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE ZONE WILL NOT SEE THE
HEAVY AMOUNTS...IT WILL CAUSE QUITE AN IMPACT FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE IN THE GREATER DULUTH AREA. THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR A 5 TO
7 INCH TOTAL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THINK THERE COULD BE SOME
FURTHER SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH SHORE THIS AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR.

STRONG WAA AND FGEN WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND INTO
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. SNOWFALL TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR TWO BUT COULD BE A BIT
MORE IN SPOTS. TEMPS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT DUE TO THE
STRONG WAA AND CLOUDS/SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR THE
MOST PART ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

SPLIT FLOW REMAINS IN THE WESTERLIES THIS PERIOD WITH NRN BRANCH
ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS AND NRN PLAINS MOST OF THIS PERIOD. AS A
RESULT A CONTINUATION OF FLUCTUATING TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. PTYPE ISSUES WILL BE EVIDENT AT TIMES AS LOW LVL THERMAL
FIELDS CONTINUE TO MODIFY UNDER AN INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING OF BDRY LAYER. A SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND THUR NIGHT WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY IN MN ZONES...MAY STILL BE A MIX OVER WISC
ZONES. A DEEP CYCLONIC AND RELATIVELY MOIST CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY OVER THE CWA. A RESIDUAL BDRY LAYER TROUGH MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NRN CWA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO HIGHER POPS. WILL USE MAINLY SNOW
OVER NRN ZONES...RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO
EAST WILL COMMENCE SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP MAY
OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. PATTERN WILL THEN SHIFT TO
A WARM ADVECTION REGIME SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW POSSIBLE. MID LVL
TROF WILL AMPLIFY OVER NRN PLAINS MON/TUESDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT
OF INITIAL NRN PLAINS SFC LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. THIS KEEPS THE
CWA IN A PROLONGED PATTERN OF WARM ADVECTION WITH A POTENTIAL
INCREASE IN LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE POPS REMAIN IN FCST
INTO AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE AOA CLIMO FRIDAY BEFORE
LOWERING TO BELOW CLIMO DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

AREA OF SNOW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR TWIN PORTS IS DECREASING IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO VFR BY MID
MORNING AT BOTH KHYR/KDLH. OTHERWISE SOUTHWARD BUILDING RIDGE OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
APPROACHING WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LOWERING CEILINGS
EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT WITH -SN POSSIBLE AT KINL/KBRD/KHIB.
CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL MAKE IT TO ERN TERMINALS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 20 9 43 28 / 80 60 10 20
INL 19 12 44 26 / 30 60 10 40
BRD 23 16 47 27 / 10 50 10 10
HYR 19 5 44 28 / 30 60 10 20
ASX 13 1 46 28 / 60 60 30 20

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 112028
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA PER RADAR IMAGERY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN BAND OF 850
MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET STREAK ALSO HELPING OUT.

LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS AND 12Z SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH TAKING THIS BAND OF LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THIS BAND
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD...COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW THROUGH
00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS MAY AFFECT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENING RUSH
HOUR PERIOD IN MILWAUKEE AND MADISON.

THIS BAND BECOMES ALL LIGHT SNOW AS IT LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES BY MID EVENING...AND IN KENOSHA COUNTY THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION...CAUSING THE FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE TO
BECOME ORIENTED MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS
INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

12Z MODELS SUGGESTING THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
KENOSHA COUNTY TONIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOT MORE QPF IN THE SOUTHEAST
THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN...WITH THE NAM SHOWING LITTLE TO NONE.
LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AMOUNTS...WHICH SHOULD BRING A 1 TO
2 INCH ACCUMULATION IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...LOWER TO THE
NORTHWEST.

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT...CAUSING
SOME BLOWING SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT
ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME...AS
WET NATURE OF SNOW SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 6
MILES AT WORST.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
THURSDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN BEHIND THE TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE 12Z NAM
SATURATES AT 700 MB LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO EXPECT MIDNIGHT
LOWS AND THEN A SLOW RISE.

MOST MODELS BRING A FEW HUNDRETHS OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
MORNING BUT LASTS A BIT LONGER OVER THE FAR EAST. THE 285 KELVIN
LAYER SHOWS MODERATE LIFT AND SATURATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OF
ZERO. TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BEFORE THICKNESS AND
850 TEMPERATURES WARM.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD START MILD AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. THEN COLD ADVECTION BEGINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON.

.LONG TERM...

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DROPS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 850 MB RH IS HIGH AND EXPECT A STRATOCUMULUS
SHIELD WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A MORE EAST WEST STRUCTURE...WHILE THE 12Z GFS
STILL HAS THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

EITHER WAY BOTH MODELS HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND A SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING ON MONDAY.

.TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

ON TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION ON
THE GFS...BUT FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN ON THE 00Z ECMWF.
THICKNESS VALUES SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN OVER THE SOUTH.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES INTO
EARLY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EVENTUALLY
EXPECTED WITH THE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE
LIGHT SNOW MIX IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN 00Z AND
03Z WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME ALL LIGHT SNOW.

THE LIGHT SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WILL
LINGER UNTIL AROUND 04Z TO 05Z WEDNESDAY AT MADISON...AROUND 07Z AT
WAUKESHA/MILWAUKEE...AND UNTIL AROUND 10Z WEDNESDAY AT KENOSHA.
LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE
EXPECTED...WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE EASTERN SITES...AND
UNDER 1 INCH AT MADISON.

NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
EVENING...BECOMING NORTH AND REMAINING GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO
30 TO 33 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE EASTERN SITES LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT MADISON. NOT
EXPECTING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BELOW 6 MILES FROM ANY BLOWING
SNOW...AS THE SNOW WILL BE THE WET AND HEAVY TYPE.

.MARINE...

GALE WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM 03Z TO 17Z
WEDNESDAY. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES
BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTH NORTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE GALE WARNING PERIOD.

ICE COVER HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE MILD
TEMPERATURES THE PAST FEW DAYS PER RECENT MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SO...EXPECT HIGH WAVES UP TO 5 TO 10 FEET TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS REMAIN. HIGH WAVES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THIS TIME.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 111708 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1208 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.UPDATE...AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA PER RADAR IMAGERY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MAIN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN BAND OF 850 MB TO 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF JET STREAK ALSO HELPING OUT.

LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS AND 12Z SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH TAKING THIS BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS BAND SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL STILL AFFECT THE EVENING RUSH HOUR
PERIOD IN MILWAUKEE AND MADISON.

THIS BAND BECOMES ALL LIGHT SNOW AS IT LINGERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE EVENING...AND IN KENOSHA COUNTY THROUGH
MOST OF TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION...CAUSING THE FRONTOGENESIS
RESPONSE TO BECOME ORIENTED MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

12Z MODELS SUGGESTING THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
KENOSHA COUNTY TONIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOT MORE QPF IN THE SOUTHEAST
THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN...WITH THE NAM SHOWING LITTLE TO NONE.
LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AMOUNTS...WHICH SHOULD BRING A 1
TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATION IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...LOWER TO THE
NORTHWEST.

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LEANING TOWARD NOT ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR RACINE AND
KENOSHA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME...AS WET NATURE OF SNOW SHOULD
LIMIT BLOWING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
LIGHT RAIN MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN BY 20Z TO
21Z TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN BY
00Z WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME ALL LIGHT SNOW BY 02Z TO 03Z
WEDNESDAY.

THE LIGHT SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WILL
LINGER UNTIL AROUND 04Z TO 05Z WEDNESDAY AT MADISON...AROUND 07Z
AT WAUKESHA/MILWAUKEE...AND UNTIL AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY AT KENOSHA.
LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE
EXPECTED...WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE EASTERN SITES...AND
UNDER 1 INCH AT MADISON.

NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
EVENING...BECOMING NORTH AND REMAINING GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE EASTERN SITES LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT MADISON. NOT
EXPECTING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM ANY BLOWING SNOW...AS THE
SNOW WILL BE THE WET AND HEAVY TYPE.

.MARINE...GALE WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
03Z TO 17Z WEDNESDAY. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE
GUSTY NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE GALE WARNING
PERIOD.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS REMAIN. HIGH WAVES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THIS TIME.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

WILL FOLLOW CONSENSUS OF 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND CANADIAN IN KEEPING
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO THE SOUTH OF WI TONIGHT. 00Z NAM
STRONG OUTLIER DUE TO ITS MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING AND
SLOWER EWD MOVEMENT. THIS HAS OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE WINTER AS
WELL WITH NAM GUIDANCE. 00Z NAM ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH COUPLED JET
OVER SOUTHERN WI LATER TONIGHT WHILE ECMWF AND GFS SOUTH IN
CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL. FORTUNATELY 06Z NAM APPEARS TO HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OTHER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.

STRONG AREA OF LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SPREADS INTO SOUTHERN
WI LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN...IN COMBINATION WITH ENHANCED SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. HENCE WL
CONTINUE HIGH POPS TODAY. COLDER...DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO
SOUTHERN WI ON INCREASING NORTH WINDS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. TOP-
DOWN METHOD AND CRITICAL THICKNESS FAVOR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY
BECOMING MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTN. NOT IMPOSSIBLE AN
ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SOME SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTH BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW TO MELT
DURING THE DAY. BY THIS EVENING...THE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING WITH THE EMPHASIS SHIFTING TO THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHERN WI LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM. MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING BEFORE SN SPREADS BACK INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WI LATER TONIGHT.
FAR SOUTHEAST MAY END UP GETTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS DUE TO TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE NOW OPEN WATERS OF
THE NEARSHORE WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH TO AFFECT
LAKESHORE AREAS AFT 05Z. DAY SHIFT WL NEED TO CONTEMPLATE WHETHER A
WINTER WX ADVY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE TNGT INTO EARLY WED.COMING
SOON.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BLUSTERY DAY SHAPING UP WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MODELS KEYING
MORE ON LINGERING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW. MAIN CONCERN WILL FOCUS ON
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. 850 TEMPS DROP TO - 16C TO -18C CREATING
MORE THAN FAVORABLE DELTA-T. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER
FETCH...NNE IN THE LOW LAYERS IN THE MORNING BUT INVERSION HEIGHT
QUITE LOW AND MORE BORDERLINE DELTA-T THEN. DURING THE AFTERNOON
WINDS SHIFT A BIT MORE NNW THOUGH DELTA-T BECOMES EXTREMELY
FAVORABLE THEN WITH HIGHER INVERSION HEIGHTS. FOR NOW WILL LIKELY
KEY THE POP FORECAST ON LINGERING SYNOPTIC SNOWS AND NOT JUMP ON
LAKE EFFECT JUST YET. TEMPS IN MOST AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
PAST 20 SO WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS QUITE LIKELY.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW BECOMES BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC WITH DECENT WARM
ADVECTION SETTING UP ONCE AGAIN. 12Z ECMWF MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
925 TEMPS WARMING BACK ABV 0C...WHILE THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOWING
925 TEMPS AOB 0C. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST
CWA WHERE BETTER ADIABATIC OMEGA COINCIDES WITH LOWERING OF
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE AT 12Z. WITH 850 FRONT PASSING THROUGH
COLD ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY. SHORTWAVE RIDES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MOISTURE BETTER TO THE NORTH SO WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST
INTACT. GFS SHOWS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED COOLING THAN THE GFS...SO
A BLENDED 925 TEMP APPROACH STILL SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID
40S.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
CYCLONIC 500 MILLIBAR FLOW. LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. TIMING OF WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NE WILL BE A KEY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHSN LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE ONSHORE
FLOW. 850 TEMPS DROP OFF INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE. HOWEVER UPPER FLOW IS CYCLONIC. ECMWF
SHOWS A BETTER SHORTWAVE SOUTHWEST OF WI KEEPING PRECIP JUST
SOUTH. WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. KEPT THE ALLBLEND SLIGHT POPS IN
PLACE FOR NOW.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
WARM ADVECTION SIGNAL ONCE AGAIN. ECMWF ABOUT 4-5C WARMER THAN
THE GFS. PATTERN SUGGESTS DRY WX FOR SRN WI. ECMWF SHOWS WAA
INDUCED PCPN ACRS PARTS OF NRN WI...WHILE THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY...SO QUIET ALLBLEND POPS LOOK OK AT THIS POINT.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MVFR
AND LIKELY LOWER FOR A TIME. AREA OF -RA WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
WI TODAY AND TRANSITION TO PERIODS OF -SN TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF
-SN AND STRONG WINDS WL LIKELY CREATE LOW VSBYS AT KENW TNGT.

MARINE...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TODAY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INCREASE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. LATEST HIGH RES VISIBLE
IMAGE FROM TUE SHOWS MUCH OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS HAVE BEEN CLEARED
OF ICE DUE TO THE RECENT STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. HENCE OPEN WATERS WILL CREATE MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS TO MIX DOWN TO
SURFACE LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MRNG. HENCE WL POST GALE WARNING
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST WED AFTN AND EVE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KDLH 111746
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1246 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

AT 345AM/0845Z...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED BAND OF PCPN NORTH OF THE
LOW...STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST...WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
DAKOTA. MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS HAD BKN/OVC
CLOUD COVER...MOSTLY FROM MID/HIGH CLOUDS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED WESTWARD
FROM THE QUEBEC LOW TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THERE
WAS CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR...AIR OF ARCTIC ORIGINS...BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. MUCH OF ONTARIO...MANITOBA...AND SASKATCHEWAN HAD
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE NORTHLAND HAD TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TO
THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERE WERE WNW TO
NW WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH.

TODAY...THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST TO
MISSOURI. ITS BAND OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO COVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THEN
BEGIN TO SCATTER AND SHIFT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WE WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO DITCH THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS....THE LOW CLOUDS IN
CANADA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT
MOVES GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD
BE SOME SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...SO I INCREASED THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SINCE THOSE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. THE HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE NORTHLAND.
THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STRENGTHEN
AND BECOME NNE TO ENE. CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A LOT MORE OPEN
WATER NOW DUE TO THE RECENT WARM WEATHER...THE COLD FLOW OVER THE
LAKE WILL RESULT IN SOME DECENT CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. I
INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS NW WISCONSIN...THE TWIN PORTS
AREA...AND FOR THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY AREA. MOST OF THE MODELS
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE PICKING UP ON THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
THREAT...BUT THE NAM12 AND SREF ARE DOING MUCH BETTER HANDLING
THIS. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY GET ABOUT A HALF TO A FULL INCH. MORE
IS POSSIBLE...BUT I THINK WE WILL GET A BETTER IDEA OF THE THREAT
WHEN THIS TIMEFRAME COMES INTO VIEW FOR MORE OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. THE BEST PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW APPEARS TO
BE FROM ABOUT 9 PM TO 3 AM. THIS IS WHEN OVERALL MOISTURE IN THE
FLOW OVER THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE BEST...AND THEN DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION VERY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL
BE CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND
DECREASING WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
FALL AROUND AND SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. I DECREASED THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST NOW HAS A RANGE OF MID TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...TO THE MID TO UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL CUT OFF THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LIGHTEN. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THIS
WILL HELP BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES...BUT I DID LOWER THE HIGHS A
BIT BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS BEING MUCH COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT WARM AND
MORE MOIST AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGINS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PCPN
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE ONLY THE GFS WAS THIS QUICK AT BRINGING IN
THE PCPN...I DECIDED TO KEEP THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

HAVE INCREASED TO BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT/THURS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT/MID LEVEL OMEGA TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND...TRIGGERING A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY A HALF TO ONE INCH.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AS THE
WARM SECTOR PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME 50S.

LATEST MODELS SHOW SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND TIMING...BUT
ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE WITH CLOSED
H85/SFC LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND TRACKS ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS
SUGGEST THERE IS A LACK OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW NEAR THE LOW CENTER ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER/MN
ARROWHEAD ZONES. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON
IN THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY...SETTLING
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE
EAST MONDAY...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FOUND AHEAD OF AN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THIS
ORGANIZED SYSTEM DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS AND TRACKS OVER THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR TODAY/TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH AS WELL TONIGHT. STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO. WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 2500-3500 TO MOVE INTO MOST TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. THE RAP HAS DONE AN OK JOB DEPICTING THE CLOUDS...BUT
DOES SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE COVERAGE. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST-NORTHEAST. THERE IS MORE
OPEN WATER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER MODIS IMAGERY...AND THAT SHOULD
ALLOW MORE LAKE CLOUDS/SNOW TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR
MOVING IN. AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT...A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SOME LES/CLOUDS WILL OCCUR IN KDLH.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 34 4 19 10 / 10 30 10 50
INL 27 -9 19 15 / 20 10 0 50
BRD 36 7 23 15 / 10 10 10 40
HYR 36 3 17 8 / 10 20 10 40
ASX 37 3 13 4 / 10 30 20 40

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 101036
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
236 AM AKDT MON MAR 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. MODEL INITIALIZED WELL ON
THE MAJOR FEATURES. PATTERN CHANGE IS ONGOING AND ALL THE MODELS
ARE HANDLING IT SIMILARLY.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...CLOSED 501 DAM LOW OVER NORTHWEST MAINLAND
MOVING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE BERING STRAIT
BY TUESDAY MORNING. 499 DAM CLOSE LOW 300NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH OVER ILIAMNA THIS EVENING THEN BE
ABSORBED INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING STRAIT. THE
FIRST MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TONIGHT. A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL FOLLOW WITH THE NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE BROOKS RANGE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT 850 HPA...20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM LIES
FROM NOME TO EAGLE THIS MORNING. THE ISOTHERM WILL PIVOT ON A
POINT OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WITH WARMER AIR PUSHING NORTH OVER
THE MAINLAND AND COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST AS THE
500 HPA LOW DIGS SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BERING SEA.

SURFACE...EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND WILL BREAK DOWN AS
962MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES NORTH TO BE OVER KODIAK
ISLAND TONIGHT...AND CONTINUES NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AT
988MB THEN DISSIPATES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE 200NM SOUTH OVER
SAND POINT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER KODIAK
ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING AT 973MB. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE DEVELOPING TODAY AS FIRST LOW MOVES NORTH...STRONGER
CHINOOK FLOW WITH THE SECOND LOW ON THURSDAY. BAND OF SNOW TO
REACH THE LOWER YUKON DELTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON EXTENDING EAST OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE...PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING. EAST OF
TANANA AND SOUTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THE INTERIOR WILL MOSTLY
BE SHADOWED OUT OF THE SNOW...THOUGH SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL
SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. EXPECT A MESSY WEATHER SITUATION OUT WEST
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AS THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BRING MORE
LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

ARCTIC COAST...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST
COAST THIS MORNING. MODIS 11 UM BT AT 10/0706Z SHOWS STRATUS JUST
OFFSHORE OF BARROW MOVING SOUTHWEST. BARROW SHOULD CLEAR LATER
THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THAT Z201 WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO BOTTOM OUT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE PLAINS...SO EXPECT LOWS
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE 20 TO 40 BELOW TONIGHT WITH SOME 50 BELOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE PLAINS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...GETTING PRETTY COMPLICATED OUT
WEST. SNOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AROUND NOON TODAY
THEN SPREADING NORTH OVERNIGHT. SEWARD PENINSULA AND CHUKCHI SEA
COAST WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT...BUT THE SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THOSE
AREAS AS THE FRONT ROTATES OVER THE AREA. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL
BE IN THE LOWER YUKON AND NULATO HILLS UPSLOPE AREAS WITH UP TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE. SNOW ENDING OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. NEXT FRONT SPREADS FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE LOWER
YUKON BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES INLAND BEGIN WARMING
TODAY WHILE THE COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALL AS COLD
AIR IS PULLED DOWN THE COAST. WINDS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE BEGINNING LATE TODAY.

INTERIOR...SUNNY EARLY TODAY THEN INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME FLURRIES IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR BY LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS MOST AREAS
WILL BE SHADOWED OUT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TODAY
WITH WARMING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGHS LATER IN THE WEEK
WILL REACH INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR. NEXT
FRONT MOVING OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF
SNOW SIMILAR TO TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK CHINOOK WILL PRODUCE WINDS
NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES GUSTING TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITH THE FIRST
EVENT AND SLIGHT STRONGER WINDS WITH THURSDAYS FRONT.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.

SDB MAR 14

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 091133
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
333 AM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZE WELL. ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE CHANGE IN
PATTERN AS RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER EASTERN INTERIOR AND TROUGH DIGS
DOWN OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING UP THE FACE OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING
MONDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING BACK OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM LOW OVER THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. CLOSED
500 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER BEAVER THIS MORNING THEN MOVES NORTHWEST
OVER ANAKTUVUK PASS THIS EVENING...AND OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY
EVENING. RIDGE PUSHES NORTH AS LOW PULLS OUT WITH RIDGE AXIS LYING
EAST TO WEST OVER THE ALASKA RANGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVER
THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FIRST MAJOR SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST BY MONDAY EVENING AND
OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...MODELS
ARE STILL PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PULLING THE 20 BELOW CELSIUS
ISOTHERM SOUTH TO LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO MCGRATH AND THEN EAST
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY...THEN FROM NOME TO EAGLE MONDAY
MORNING. THE ISOTHERM THEN PUSHES NORTH IN THE EAST AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN AND GETS PULLED SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST AS THE LOW
ALOFT DROPS SOUTH.

SURFACE...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE STATE...BUT THAT WILL
BE CHANGING AS THE WEEK GOES ON. 980MB LOW NEAR YAKUTAT THIS
MORNING WILL PINBALL WEST TO COOK INLET THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING. A 964MB LOW NEAR 47N 169W THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
300NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN TO KODIAK
ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING NORTH TO BE OVER COOK
INLET WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE ALASKA RANGE MONDAY NIGHT. WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE
ALASKA RANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE BROOKS RANGE BY TUESDAY
MORNING. EASTERN INTERIOR LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH THE
CHINOOK FLOW...BUT EXPECT SNOW OUT WEST AND OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH ANYWHERE AT THIS TIME.

ARCTIC COAST...MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING...BUT MORE STRATUS JUST
OFFSHORE CAN BE SEEN ON THE MODIS 11 UM BT AT 09/0801Z MOVING
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THE STRATUS AND FLURRIES TO MOVE OVER THE COAST
LATER THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WAINWRIGHT
EAST. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH DIRECTION DEPENDENT ON THE
LOCATION OF THE BUBBLE HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY EXCEPT ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND. STRONG WINDS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT WILL LET UP A LITTLE
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD TODAY BUT COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY ALONG THE COAST AS THE WEEK GOES ON.
INCREASING CLOUDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SPREADING TO THE
INLAND AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

INTERIOR...CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WHICH WILL SEE CLOUDS AND SOME
FLURRIES TODAY THAT ARE BEING FLUNG NORTH BY THE LOW NEAR
YAKUTAT. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AROUND THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING
WILL TAPER DOWN AS THE DAY GOES ON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE ALASKA RANGE. AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER FAIRBANKS SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT THAT MOST SNOW WILL BE WEST AND
NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220.

SDB MAR 14

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 081157
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
257 AM AKST SAT MAR 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR IN THE NEAR TERM. GOOD
INITIALIZATION WITH THE 00Z RUN. WILL USE A MEAN TO ELIMINATE THE
NOISE BETWEEN THE MODELS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH EAST TO WEST OVER THE ALASKA
RANGE THIS MORNING DRIFTS SOUTH AND DISSIPATES. SHORT WAVE OVER
THE BROOKS RANGE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH AS 504 DAM CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE TROUGH OVER VENETIE THIS EVENING THEN DRIFTS OVER
LIVENGOOD TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH OVER ANAKTUVUK PASS SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWEST RIDGE PUSHES NORTH AND WEST
OVER THE INTERIOR WITH 520 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY
TUESDAY MORNING. A 507 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
SUNDAY MORNING MOVES OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN
MERGES WITH THE LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT 850
HPA...COLD AIR WITH IT AND THE 20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM PUSHES
SOUTH TO LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO MCGRATH AND THEN EAST ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN FROM NOME TO EAGLE BY MONDAY
MORNING...THEN RETREATS NORTH AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTH OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.

SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE STATE. 974MB
LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 100NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT
THIS MORNING THEN PINBALL WEST TO OVER COOK INLET BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. A 985MB LOW NEAR 40N 180 THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE TO 300NM SOUTH OF ADAK BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
TO 300NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN TO KODIAK
ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING NORTH TO BE OVER COOK
INLET WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE ALASKA RANGE MID WEEK.

ARCTIC COAST...STRATUS AND FLURRIES STILL CAUSING HAVOC. 08/0718Z
MODIS 11UM BT SHOWS STRATUS OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND ALSO JUST
OFF THE COAST MOVING SOUTH. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THE EXCEPTION BEING CLOUDY WITH FLURRIES NEAR
THE BERING STRAIT AND ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH DIURNAL RANGES OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES.
WINDS GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.

INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. EXPECT SOME FLURRIES
DEVELOPING IN FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR BY SUNDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
IS FLUNG NORTH BY THE LOW NEAR YAKUTAT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MILD WITH FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL
RANGES.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

SDB MAR 14

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 071051
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
151 AM AKST FRI MAR 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...HAVE BEEN PRETTY GOOD IN THE NEAR TERM LATELY...AND THIS
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR SO THIS RUN. BECOMES PRETTY
MUDDLED AS TIME GOES ON SO WILL USE THE MEAN BEYOND THAT.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING CONTINUES ITS DOMINANCE OVER THE
AREA WITH WEAK TROUGH RUNNING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR. 516 DAM CLOSED LOW THAT WAS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA
HAS MOVES TO OVER ST MATTHEW ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO THE
SOUTHWEST. SHORTWAVE IN THE HIGH ARCTIC THIS MORNING WILL DIVE
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AS CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS. 504 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
SATURDAY NIGHT WORKS SOUTHWEST OVER TANANA BY SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVES NORTH OVER THE UPPER NOATAK EARLY MONDAY
MORNING CONTINUING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PUSHES 522 HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A 507 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC SUNDAY MORNING MOVES OVER COLD BAY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AT 850 HPA...AS UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN FROM THE HIGH
ARCTIC IT BRINGS SOME COLD AIR WITH IT AND THE 20 BELOW CELSIUS
ISOTHERM PUSHES SOUTH TO LIE FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA EXTENDING
EAST ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE YUKON TERRITORY.

SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE STATE.
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN WILL PERSIST. 976MB
LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA SOUTH OF YAKUTAT ON SATURDAY MORNING THEN PINBALL ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 980MB LOW NEAR 40N 180 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 300NM SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND TO 250NM SOUTH OF KODIAK BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO COOK
INLET AT 980MB BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ARCTIC COAST...MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF
STRATUS FLOATING AROUND CAUSING HAVOC WITH THE TAFS. AS THE UPPER
LOW DROPS SOUTH A LARGE BAND OF STRATUS...SHOWS UP ON THE 1347Z
NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT...THAT MAY DROPS SOUTH ALSO...WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON ITS PROGRESSION SOUTH. IF IT DOES MARCH SOUTH...EXPECT SOME
FLURRIES OR PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH IT BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS AND THE STRATUS WILL HELP MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES FOR MOST
OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES. 07/0814Z MODIS 11 UM BT SHOWS
SOME STRATUS IN THE LOWER YUKON. EXPECT FLURRIES IN THE LOWER
YUKON TO TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON
THE MILD SIDE WITH DIURNAL RANGES OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES. WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS MORNING THEN GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS BUT AT
TIMES MAY KICK UP AROUND 20 MPH AS THE GRADIENT SQUEEZES A LITTLE.

INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S BELOW AT VALLEY LEVEL FOR MOST AREA WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE. NORTH WINDS PERSISTING
AND MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY NEAR ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGE PASSES.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

SDB MAR 14

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 032018
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH TROF EXTENDING W INTO WRN CANADA...
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO COVER A VAST AREA OF CANADA INTO THE NRN
CONUS. HOWEVER...THE COLD IS MODERATING AS 00Z RAOBS SHOWED 850MB
TEMPS OF -21C/-17C/-21C AT KINL/KGRB/KAPX RESPECTIVELY...ALL SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. COLD WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS PACIFIC AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD E IN LOW AMPLITUDE
FLOW. SFC TROF THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT BROUGHT A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A LONE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD/-SHSN
BAND EMANATING FROM A PATCH OF OPEN WATER/BKN ICE NEAR ISLE ROYALE
WAS EXTENDING SSE AND COMBINING WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM SOME
OPEN WATER/BKN ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW TO BRING
FLURRIES/-SHSN TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES/MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO -10 TO -25F IN
GENERAL.

TODAY WILL BE A QUIET DAY WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. MODERATING ARCTIC AIR MASS AND SUNSHINE
WORKING ON LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS MAY STILL FAIL TO GET ABOVE 10F OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND THE NE FCST AREA AS WINDS OFF THE FROZEN LAKE LIMIT
MIXING DEPTH. NAM/GEM SHOW A LAKE BREEZE OR MAYBE MORE
APPROPRIATE...ICE BREEZE...DEVELOPING INTO THE MARQUETTE AREA THIS
AFTN. IF SO...TEMPS MAY FALL BACK SEVERAL DEGREES AFTER RISING INTO
THE TEENS.

ALTHOUGH TIMING IS NOT WELL AGREED UPON YET...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF -SN WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI AT SOME
POINT TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NRN
PORTION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/DEEP LAYER FORCING AS WELL AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO. THUS...POPS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE S
(LIKELY) WITH CHC TO THE N. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG AVBL PER
280K SFC (ROUGHLY 700-725MB) AND 6HRS OR SO OF -SN...EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH N TO PERHAPS 1-2INCHES FAR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS...TEMPS
AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BLO 0F TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODIS IMAGERY
OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS INDICATES LAKE SUPERIOR IS NEARLY ICED
OVER...SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL
DON/T EXPECT MUCH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.

TUESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK SHORTWAVES...WITH THE
ONE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST AND THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE DAKOTAS. THIS
SECOND WAVE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
TRAJECTORY AS THE TUESDAY MORNING WAVE...BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PULL DRIER AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MICHIGAN AND LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATING IT BEING
SHALLOW...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST AND MAINLY INDICATE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH
INFLUENCE WITH THIS WAVE...ESPECIALLY WITH A MOSTLY FROZEN LAKE
SUPERIOR.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN EASTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO VARY ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE
EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING...SHOULD SEE A
QUICK FALL IN TEMPS BEFORE RETURN FLOW TRIES TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
SINCE PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE
EVENING...DID LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BASED OFF THE CONSISTENCY
IN THE MODELS ON HAVING LOWS IN THE -5 TO -10 DEGREE RANGE.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASUREABLE SNOW IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THERE IS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE THAT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AND ACROSS
THE U.P. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SNOW. WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS...WILL
TREND POPS UP IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND THINK SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY (FROM A HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS) AND
WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH LAKE SUPERIOR PRETTY MUCH
FROZEN OVER. THERE ARE HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY DRY...WOULDN/T
EXPECT MORE THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT)
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA.

AS FOR HIGHS...VALUES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD BUT WARMER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY. 850MB TEMPS
STAY IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO MOST OF THE WEEK AND LIMITS HIGHS FROM
RISING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 20S LATE IN THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. SOME OF THE THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (AROUND 40
PERCENT) DO SHOW TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME FOR
MOST OF THE CWA SINCE FEB 21ST. 12Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS AROUND FREEZING ON MONDAY...SO WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND NEAR COMPLETE ICE
COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
-SN WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT VIS COULD DROP TO IFR FOR A
TIME AT KIWD/KSAW. LOOK FOR SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN THRU 18Z
TUE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
15-25KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SFC TROF THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TUE...BRINGING A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT.
AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU TUE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE
ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W.
TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 280957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
457 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014

WILL CONTINUE THE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE COLD MORNING TEMPERATURES.
COLDEST NOTED SO FAR HAS BEEN -36 AT THE SPINCICH LAKE RAWS...AND
-35 AT DOE LAKE. AT THE NWS OFFICE...THE COLDEST WAS -28 WHICH
OCCURRED PRIOR TO 4AM /TEMPS WHERE NEARLY STEADY STATE BETWEEN -26
AND -28 FROM MIDNIGHT TO 345AM/. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISRUPT THE
EXTREME COLD OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED
TO -11 AT CMX ALREADY THIS MORNING.

STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPS IN THE SINGLE TO LOW DOUBLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF S WINDS AROUND 8-12KTS.
OTHER THAN TEMPS THIS MORNING THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SNOW S AND SE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLOWED DOWN
INCOMING SYSTEM FROM WHAT WE PREVIOUSLY HAD IN THE FCST. STILL
EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW TO FALL PRIOR TO 06Z SATURDAY.
LOOKING AT SOME OF THE MORE RAPIDLY UPDATING FCST MODELS...ANOTHER
SLOW-DOWN MAY BE NEEDED. SLR ON THE ORDER 20-23:1 IN THE POTENTIAL
LAKE ENHANCED BAND MOVING INTO DELTA AND S SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD 2-4IN OF SNOW...OR MORE. HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE SHORELINE...WHEREVER ONSHORE FLOW FOCUSES
THE EXPECTED MAIN BAND. TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST SATELLITE/MODIS
IMAGERY IT SEEMS THAT THE STRONG WINDS OF LATE HAVE RESULTED IN MUCH
MORE OPEN WATER OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE MI. CONCERNS REMAIN
THROUGH...AS FRIGID TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWS
FOR QUICK THIN ICE TO FORM. WAS IMPRESSED TO ALREADY SEE A S-N
ORIENTED BAND OFF THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 2-4AM ALONG THE E
SHORE OF LAKE MI UP TO THE GARDEN PENINSULA AND WASHINGTON INLAND.
OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE SHORES OF LOWER
MI /FRANKFORT/. IN OUR LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING IT HAS MOVED AROUND
QUITE A BIT ACROSS N LAKE MI. SMALL SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE THREAT OF 0.2 TO NEARLY 0.4IN QPF /HIGHEST OFF THE
HIRESWRF/. POSTED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO HANDLE BOTH THE LES AND
SYSTEM SNOW FROM 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY. THE SFC TROUGH OVER
W-CENTRAL ND AT 10Z WILL BE OVER CENTRAL MN AT 18Z...AND OVER E
UPPER MI AT 06Z. EXPECT SNOW TO QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE LOW.

INCREASED SFC TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. WIND CHILL VALUES PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN -25F...RESULTING IN NO WIND CHILL RELATED
HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST THU FEB 27 2014

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES UPR MI WL REMAIN DOMINATED
BY VERY COLD AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IN CANADA
THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SIGNS THERE WL BE AT LEAST SOME
TEMPORARY MODERATION TOWARD WED/THU AS THE FLOW DEAMPLIFIES A BIT.
BUT PRESENCE OF MEAN UPR RDG IN LONGER RANGE MODELS OVER WRN
NAMERICA INTO 3/10 INDICATES BLO NORMAL TEMPS WL BE THE RULE FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE WEEKS. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONGER TERM FOCUS
ON SN AMOUNTS ON FRI NGT/POTENTIAL ADVY WIND CHILLS LATE FRI NGT
INTO EARLY SAT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LO FCST TO TRACK FM LK SUP INTO
SE ONTARIO. FOCUS FOR LATER SHIFTS MAINLY TO TEMPS AND WHETHER OR
NOT THERE WL BE ANY LES WITH EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP. NO LARGE
SCALE STORM SYSTEMS LOOK TO IMPACT UPR MI ON SAT THRU THU.

FRI NIGHT...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE VIGOROUS NRN BRANCH
WAVE WITH SFC LO OVER NCENTRAL LK SUP AT 00Z SAT HEADING E INTO SE
ONTARIO OVERNGT. LARGER SCALE WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOWN ON THE
270-290K SFCS /H85 THRU H65/ AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS SOME
UPR DVGC ASSOCIATED WITH RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET STREAK PASSING OVER NRN
LK SUP/ADJOINING ONTARIO WL SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MAINLY THE
E 2/3 OF THE CWA 00Z-06Z SAT BEFORE DRY SLOTTING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC AHEAD OF STRONGER JET MAX END THE PCPN W-E THRU THE NGT. MODELS
INDICATE H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY RISING NEAR 2 G/KG AT MNM AT 00Z
SAT...WITH S FLOW UP THE LENGTH OF LK MI ADDING MORE MSTR DEPENDING
ON EXTENT OF ICE COVER. FCST SDNGS SHOW A DEEP DGZ...UP TO 10K FT
DEEP AT MNM... SO EXPECT SN/WATER RATIOS MAY REACH 25-30:1. THESE
NUMBERS INDICATE 2-3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL FLUFFY SN MAY FALL OVER
THE SE CWA AFT 00Z SAT BEFORE THE SN ENDS THERE IN THE EARLY MRNGS
HRS ON SAT. ANOTHER CONCERN LATER WL BE POTENTIAL FOR ADVY LVL WIND
CHILLS OVER AT LEAST THE WRN CWA LATER AT NGT. SINCE THE SFC LO HAS
TRENDED TO BE A BIT STRONGER...THE PRES GRADIENT/NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE
MAY BE STRONG ENUF TO MAINTAIN STEADIER NW WINDS OVER THE
LAND...ESPECIALLY SINCE H925 WINDS UP TO 25-30KT ARE PRESENT UNDER
SHARP H85 CAD THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -26 TO
-27C OVER THE NW BY 12Z SAT. SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE INDICATES
SFC TEMPS WL DIP AS LO AS -15F OR SO OVER THE W BY SUNRISE ON SAT.
IF WINDS ARE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG... AT LEAST A MARGINAL WIND CHILL
ADVY MAY BE NECESARRY FOR THE WRN CWA. EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER LK
SUP WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LES OF SIGNFICANCE.

SAT...CWA WL BE DOMINATED BY COLD NW FLOW BTWN ARCTIC HI PRES BLDG
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND DEPARTING SFC LO MOVING INTO QUEBEC. GENERAL
ACYC NATURE OF THE LLVL FLOW AND EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER LK SUP
SHOULD LIMIT LES COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS...BUT GUSTY SFC NW WINDS WITH
H925 WINDS UP TO 25 KTS COULD CAUSE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH BLSN
IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LK SUP THAT HAVE BEEN PLAGUED BY SIMILAR WX
RECENTLY AS WELL AS ADVY WIND CHILLS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MRNG BEFORE
THE H925 WINDS DIMINISH A BIT LATER. H85 TEMPS ON SAT...THE FIRST
DAY OF MARCH...ARE FCST IN THE -25 TO -30C RANGE...SO TEMPS WL
CONTINUE WELL BLO NORMAL...PROBABLY AOB RECORD LO DAILY MAXES MAINLY
IN THE 5 TO 10 ABV RANGE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PCPN ON NRN
FRINGES OF DISTURBANCE FCST TO IMPACT THE LOWER LKS WITH SOME -SN
MIGHT BRUSH THE FAR SCENTRAL AS THIS AREA WL BE UNDER SOME UPR DVGC
IN RRQ OF H3 JET MAX STREAKING ACRS LK SUP AND ON WARM SIDE OF MID
LVL FGEN BAND...BUT OVERALL ACYC FLOW/DRYNESS OF THE LLVL AIR
ADVECTING INTO THIS AREA WOULD LIMIT PCPN AMOUNTS. MAINTAINED GOING
SCHC POPS.

SAT NGT/SUN...SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM HI CENTER IN THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPR LKS UNDER UPR CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN ARCTIC AND
POLAR BRANCHES WL BRING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY DRY...BUT STILL VERY
COLD WX. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY SOME LES/CLDS NEAR LK SUP YET ON SAT
EVNG...INCRSG ACYC FLOW/LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN WITH EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER SHOULD TEND TO END THIS WX. DEPENDING ON HI CLDS ON NRN
FRINGES OF DISTURBANCE BRINGING SOME SN TO THE LOWER LKS...SAT NGT
COULD BE QUITE FRIGID AGAIN WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS/PWAT UNDER 0.10
INCH. SINCE THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD SUPPRESSING THIS CLD
FARTHER S OVERNGT WITH H3 JET AXIS...TENDED TOWARD LO END OF
GUIDANCE REFLECTED BY THE GOING FCST. INCRSG MARCH SUN ANGLE/
DAYLIGHT SHOULD ALLOW A HEALTHY REBOUND DURING THE DAY ON SUN...BUT
TEMPS SHOULD STILL REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL WITH FCST H85 TEMPS STILL
HOVERING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF -20C AT 00Z MON.

SUN NGT/MON...SUN NGT LOOKS TO BE QUITE CHILLY WITH HI PRES/DRY
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE AREA. LOWERED TEMPS BLO MODEL CONSENSUS ON
SUN NGT GIVEN LGT WINDS/LO PWAT/MOCLR SKIES THAT WOULD BE FVRBL FOR
LARGE DIURNAL TEMP DROP. SUSPECT THERE WL BE A NUMBER OF -20F TO
PERHAPS -30F LO TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WL ALLOW
A LARGE DIURNAL RECOVERY ON MON...BUT LIKE SUN MAX TEMPS WL BE STILL
BE WELL BLO NORMAL.

EXTENDED...SPRAWLING HI PRES MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WL
DOMINATE AT LEAST ON TUE INTO WED...BUT THERE ARE SGNFT DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODEL FCSTS ON HOW QUICKLY WAD CLDS AND PCPN WL RETURN TO THE
UPR LKS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DEPARTING HI TO THE E AND AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL CANADA. SO HELD ON TO
THE CONSENSUS FCST. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF
THE CLDS/POPS...TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER AT LEAST CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRI MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING MID CLOUDS
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH
WILL BRING IN SOME LIGHT SNOW TO UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP FROM MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON TO IFR VSBY AND MVFR
CIGS LATE AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE SNOW DIMINISHES
BY LATE EVENING...VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014

MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND PLENTY OF VERY COLD AIR WILL LIKELY ACT TO
QUICKLY FORM ANOTHER ROUND OF THIN ICE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LINGERING
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR /AS SEEN ON THE LAST FEW VIS SATELLITE
IMAGES YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE THIS
MORNING/TODAY. THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THIS EVENING. A
LOW/TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE
N PLAINS AND S CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW/TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MIZ013-014.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KBUF 260905
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
405 AM EST WED FEB 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEHIND AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN
FORM TODAY AS A COLD WESTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO DRIVES LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INLAND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE SNOW BAND WILL THEN
LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA THIS WEEK WHICH WILL BRING A CONTINUED PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS WILL FORM FROM TIME TO TIME OSCILLATING DOWNING OF LAKE
ONTARIO. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...PASSING DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING DISPLAY A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG
A COLD FRONT...WITH THIS BATCH OF SNOW STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH
COUNTRY DOWN THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE HILLS OF SW NYS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL LAKES.

FOR THIS MORNING EXPECT THE SNOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO TRANSITION
TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS A WESTERLY WIND ALIGNS AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL LIKELY INITIALLY START THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION...THEN BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY AND PUSH THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND SOUTHWARD...LARGELY ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY
CLIP NE WAYNE COUNTY AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY
LIGHT HOURS...FOR WHICH THE LATTER COUNTY WILL HAVE A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN LEWIS
COUNTY TODAY AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HERE
AS WELL.

LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS REMAIN EXCELLENT AND SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR UNDER THIS BAND OF SNOW TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA LOWER TO AROUND -25C WHICH WILL CREATE
EXTREME LAKE INSTABILITY. WITHIN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE TO OVER 10K FEET WITH DEEP MOISTURE
FOUND THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND UP THROUGH 6-8K FEET. THOUGH WE
ARE GETTING TOWARDS THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN DIURNAL EFFECTS COULD
BRING THE BAND TO MORE OF A CELLULAR LOOK...LAND CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 J/KG SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND TO REMAIN STEADY.

OUTSIDE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE LOW CHANCES POPS...BUT HIGHER CHANCES POPS ACROSS
THE HILLS FOR TODAY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS...LINGERING LONGEST ACROSS THE HILLS OF SW
NYS WHERE LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK WHICH WILL LIFT THIS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND BACK NORTHWARD. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL FALL
SOME...DOWN TO AROUND 7-8K FEET AND WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE
AND WITH A SLIGHT DEPLETION IN THE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WE
SHOULD SEE A MINOR WEAKENING TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND. THAT SAID
WE COULD STILL SEE 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOW FALL RATES AS THIS BAND
LIFTS NORTHWARD WHICH WILL REQUIRE A REVISIT TO ANY ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES LATER THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL FALL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND ONLY RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON BACK TO ABOUT THEIR
INITIAL EARLY MORNING READINGS. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND LOCALLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A SOUTHWEST WIND COMBINED WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES MAY
BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN CLOSE TO THE -15F ADVISORY LEVEL THRESHOLD
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE TWO
MAIN FEATURES...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE AND A
CONSPICUOUSLY OUT OF PLACE POLAR VORTEX PARKED OVER MANITOBA AND
NORTHERN ONTARIO...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARDS
TO THE LOWER 48. THIS UNUSUALLY PERSISTENT +PNA PATTERN HAS BEEN
DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THIS WINTER AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO FOR AT
LEAST ANOTHER WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL THUS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST LATE FEBRUARY WEATHER THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED IN DECADES. MORE ON THAT IN MOMENT.

THE COLD WEATHER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL CERTAINLY
BE THE CASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT FIRST THE REGION WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWS FROM A PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM.

A VERY ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY WITH ITS ATTENDANT CLIPPER SFC LOW TRACKING BY TO THE NORTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL SWEEP YET ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID AIR TO FOLLOW.
THE FRONT WILL GENERATE A BURST OF SNOW ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY
AVERAGING 2 INCHES OR LESS. AS THE CLIPPER EXITS ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON...THE TABLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SET
FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. THERE WILL NOT
BE AS MUCH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE RECENT EVENTS
THOUGH...SO THIS SHOULD WORK AGAINST SNOW ACCUMS OFF LAKE ERIE...
WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY EFFICIENT OF LATE IN PRODUCING SNOW OFF A
NEARLY COMPLETELY ICE COVERED LAKE. NEVERTHELESS...WILL GO WITH HIGH
LIKELY POPS FOR SITES SOUTHEAST OF LK ERIE FOR THE THURS AFTERNOON.

FOR LAKE ONTARIO...THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL VEER FROM ABOUT
250 AT MIDDAY TO 290 BY EVENING. THE ENSUING LAKE RESPONSE WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS NORTH OF THE TUG
HILL THAT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO OSWEGO COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO BE PRIMED OFF GEORGIAN BAY...WHICH ACCORDING TO TUESDAYS
MODIS IMAGERY IS SURPRISINGLY 50 PERCENT 'OPEN'. WHILE DIURNAL
PROCESSES WILL LIMIT THE ORGANIZATION OF THE BAND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE CAP WILL BE RATHER HIGH
AT ABOUT 13K FT. WHILE THERE IS ALREADY A LES WARNING IN EFFECT
SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO...HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO HOIST A LES WATCH
WITH THIS PACKAGE.

ALONG WITH THE SYNOPTIC AND LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...
IT WILL WINDY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS PROMOTING FACE NUMBING WIND CHILLS AVERAGING 10 BELOW ZERO.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE COLDEST
NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE MERCURY DROPPING TO WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF ZERO (MOST AREAS BELOW ZERO). WHILE THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL SLACKEN WITH THE REDUCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OF
20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS HAZARD WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE HWO
PRODUCT...AND IF THE FORECAST HOLDS TRUE...WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. IN REGARDS TO THE LAKE
EFFECT...A BAND OF LAKE SNOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF OSWEGO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

ON FRIDAY...THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE WEAKENING LAKE SNOWS
WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OSWEGO COUNTY TO THE TUG
HILL. THE MOST IMPORTANT THING TO NOTE ABOUT THIS LAST DAY OF
FEBRUARY IS THAT IT WILL BE BRUTALLY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. IN FACT...THE FORECAST
MAX TEMPS AT BUF AND ROC WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMP
RECORDS (11 BUF/12 ROC)...ESTABLISHED WAY BACK IN 1875.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MID
WESTERN STATES. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH FAIRLY
STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KILL OFF THE
RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT IN THE VCNTY OF THE TUG HILL SO THAT THE BULK
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE PCPN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY CHC FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS.

AN AREA OF ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE INVERTED
SATURDAY MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM NORTH OF LAKE HURON
TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...
THIS FIRST DAY OF MARCH WILL FEEL MORE TOLERABLE AS THE MERCURY WILL
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND SOME OF THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER MAY EVEN BREAK THE 30
DEGREE MARK. THESE READINGS WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F HIGHER THAN
THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS.

SEVERAL HOURS OF STEADY SNOW WILL THEN BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
ANABATIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL INCREASE CHC POPS IN
CONTINUITY TO LIKELY WITH THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CANADA DURING
THIS PERIOD...A STRONG PACIFIC JET WILL EXTEND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE RESULTING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48
WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR JUST TO OUR NORTH
WHILE ALSO ALLOWING A LITTLE MODIFICATION OF OUR AIRMASS. DO NOT BE
FOOLED INTO THINKING THAT WE SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING THOUGH. DAILY
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY MARCH VALUES...ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE.

THE SWATH OF STEADY SNOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH ONLY NEGLIGIBLE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS EXPECTED. THE BREAK IN THE SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH
AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WINTER
STORM THAT WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WHILE WE MAY EXPERIENCE SOME
STEADY SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM (ESP SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES)
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR
THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR OUR REGION INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO RE-INTENSIFY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT NEAR KART...THEN MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH TO OSWEGO
COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL IFR. THE LAKE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL IFR EAST OF THE LAKE...
ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF KART AND NORTH
OF KSYR.

OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS EXPECT MAINLY VFR ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR. CIGS
WILL BE MVFR MOST OF THE TIME...WITH SOME MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER PLUMES OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...AND LOCALIZED IFR
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

.MARINE...
A CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY OVER BOTH LAKES WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO. GREATEST WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 9 FEET WILL BE FOUND ON THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE
WITH THE WESTERLY WIND. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF WIND IS LIKELY TO COME THURSDAY WHEN A
STRONGER CLIPPER PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. THIS MAY
RESULT IN LOW END GALES ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION
OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...AND WAVE ACTION
MAY RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON LAKE ONTARIO DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS WELL.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ006-008.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ005-008.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LEZ040-041.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LOZ042-043-062-063.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR LOZ044-045-064-065.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042-
043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ044-
045.

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...THOMAS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 242122
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
322 PM CST MON FEB 24 2014

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING DUE TO THE
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN 03Z TO 09Z
WHICH WILL HELP TO MOISTEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. BY THE TIME LOW LEVELS SATURATE...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING IN. THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW
FOR LIGHT SNOW AND IT COULD END UP BEING JUST FLURRIES OR NOTHING AT
ALL. THUS...DID NOT INCREASE POPS BEYOND CHANCE CATEGORY IN FAR
SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT. IF THE SNOW DOES ACCUMULATE...IT WILL ONLY BE
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...
BUT STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT...SO MINIMUM WIND CHILLS WILL HOVER AROUND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVERNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL DROP INTO SOUTHERN WI BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT
CLIPPER. EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE A NOTCH LOWER THAN TODAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BRISK WEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW THROUGH
THE DAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND EXTENDS DEEP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE
SHOULD STILL BE IN SOME GRADIENT FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE SO WE WON/T SEE AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO WITH
THE ELEVATED WINDS. THE GFS IS LOOKING TOO COLD...AND HAS BEEN
RUNNING COLD LATELY...DROPPING LOWS TO -15 AT KMSN FOR WED
MORNING. THE BULK OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS A GOOD 5 TO 8
DEGREES WARMER. SO WILL USE MORE OF A CONSENSUS HERE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WIND EXPECTED...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY DROP
TO 20 TO 30 BELOW AND IF THIS HOLDS...WE/LL BE ISSUING WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A DECENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA...THAT LOW REACHES NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR BY EVENING.
THIS WILL PUT US IN AN EVEN TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW THAT BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. WE COULD SEE WINDS GUST TO NEAR 30
MPH. THE RESULTANT WARM ADVECTION IS RATHER STRONG. THIS COUPLED
WITH LATE FEBRUARY SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON TO
RISE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE...BUT PRETTY DARN COLD
STILL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WIND CHILL. HIGHS GENERALLY HOVERING
AROUND 10 ABOVE...GIVE OR TAKE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. MOISTURE WILL BE
LOW...BUT ISENTROPIC CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST WE
COULD GET SOME FLURRIES GIVEN THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE QUICK...JUST DURING THE EVENING. THEN COLD ADVECTION
KICKS IN...BUT TEMPS WON/T BE QUITE AS COLD AS WED MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT WINDS AND WIND CHILLS WILL
AGAIN DROP TO 15 TO 25 BELOW...MAYBE A TOUCH COLDER.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THIS MIGHT BE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIOD OF THE WEEK
AHEAD...MAINLY FOR WHAT THE GFS THINKS LOWS WILL DO FRIDAY
MORNING. IT HAS LATCHED ON HARD TO A CLASSIC RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIO WITH LOWS DROPPING TO 28 BELOW AT MADISON AND 36 BELOW
ZERO AT LONE ROCK. WE SHOULD HAVE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVERHEAD
BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS START TO ROLL IN TOWARD MORNING AS WARM ADVECTION FLOW
TAKES SHAPE UPSTREAM. THE GFS IS ALONE ON THIS EXTREME COLD
SOLUTION AND IT WOULD ECLIPSE ANYTHING WE/VE SEEN SO FAR THIS
WINTER. SO...HAVE MOSTLY DISCARDED IT AND WILL STICK CLOSER TO A
CONSENSUS OF THE MORE MODERATE MODELS.

THE WARM ADVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE IS UP AROUND 850-700MB AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROF CLIPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN IS WEAK AND NONDESCRIPT WITH MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY CLIP SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE COLD CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF WISCONSIN AGAIN ON SUNDAY COULD
BRING THE AREA MORE LIGHT SNOW...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TONIGHT...
WITH A CHANCE OF BRUSHING FAR SOUTHERN WI MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 6 AM. SNOW WILL BE BATTLING DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF MSN AND MKE. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE SNOW IS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING AS DRIER AND COLDER
AIR MOVES IN ON BRISK WEST WINDS.

.MARINE...

THE HI RES MODIS VISIBLE IMAGE FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS ICE
OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM JUST NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO KENOSHA. MORE AREAS OF ICE WERE NOTED AROUND
SHEBOYGAN.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 241740 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1140 AM CST MON FEB 24 2014

.UPDATE...

FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. LIGHT SNOW IS STILL PROBABLE FOR
TONIGHT...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM...AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. BEST CHANCE OF THE LIGHT SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR TODAY. LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST TONIGHT...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM. BEST CHANCE
FOR THE LIGHT SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION IS SOUTH OF MSN AND MKE.
A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR WITH THE SNOW IS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT.

.MARINE...

WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT NOON SINCE WIND
GUSTS ARE BELOW 25 KNOTS.

THE HI RES MODIS VISIBLE IMAGE FROM SUNDAY SHOWS ICE REFORMING AND
THICKENING OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO KENOSHA. MORE AREAS OF ICE WERE NOTED AROUND
SHEBOYGAN. LIGHTER WINDS AND COLD TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN
AND REFORM TODAY.

ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CST MON FEB 24 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR HAS SETTLED OVER SOUTHERN WI IN THE PAST 12
HOURS. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
WARMER OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 10 DEGREE
RANGE. HENCE STARTING OUT SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN EXPECTED WITH
SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY LESS SFC WIND MIXING. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS ON THREAT FOR -SN. UPSTREAM WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MT.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CARRIES THIS FEATURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
IA/NRN IL/SRN WI REGION TONIGHT. STRONGEST FORCING OVER SOUTHERN WI
OCCURS IN THE 03Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER INITIAL SURGE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT GOES INTO MOISTENING MID LEVELS. BY THE TIME
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN...BETTER FORCING HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST.
HENCE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE QPF DUE TO THIS
DISJOINTEDNESS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS WITH BEST
CHANCE IN THE SOUTH CLOSER TO DEEPER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND LAYER
RH. SNOW LIQUID RATIOS REMAIN AROUND 20 TO 1 SO TRACE QPF MAY END
UP PRODUCING UP TO ONE HALF INCH SNOWFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
WITH TROUGH SHIFTING EAST...COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN. DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. 925 TEMPS DROP THROUGH THE MINUS TEENS CELSIUS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STEADY WNW WIND WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILLY TEMPS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BITTER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO POUR IN. 925 TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 20-23C
WITH 925 WINDS 20-30 KNOTS. SO EXPECTING SOME PRETTY DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS SETTING UP...ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS COMBINED
WITH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT QUITE BITTER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH
DROPS TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SO WINDS WON/T REST MUCH AT ALL AS THE
SOUTHWEST REGIME AND WAA SETS UP AHEAD OF A 998MB OR SO LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. SURFACE TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO GET
TOO MUCH OF A KICK WITH MUCH OF THE WARMING ALOFT AND MIXED LAYER
REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. NORTHWEST
WINDS AND 925 TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW -20C ARRIVE. GRADIENT REMAINS
FAIRLY TIGHT FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP TO
CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN. AN ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY.

THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RADIATIONAL SETUP OF THE WEEK FOR RECORDS TO FALL.
MEXMOS/GFS THE COLDEST OF ALL THE SOLUTIONS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
-20 TO -25 IN WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA. WILL LOWER TEMPS FROM THE ALLBLEND
BUT NOT GOING THAT LOW...AT LEAST NOT YET ANYWAYS. SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES
CLOSER AND WINDS ARE PROGGD TO BE LIGHTER THAN THE PRIOR TWO NIGHTS...
SO COLDEST AIR TEMPS LIKELY WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY MORE QUESTIONABLE.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX PUTS SRN WI IN A FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT
POSITION. 500 MILLIBAR FLOW IS BROADLY CYCLONIC WITH BEST VORT ACTION
NORTH. LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MORE PRONOUNCED ON ECMWF. WHILE
SOUNDINGS START OF QUITE DRY THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTENING VIA WEAK TO
MODERATE ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO MOISTEN THINGS UP ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES. 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN LINE WITH GFS TO BRING QPF INTO SRN
WI FOR PARTS OF FRI/FRI EVE. SO WENT WITH ALLBLEND POPS ON THIS.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. ECMWF COLDER ON THE 925 TEMPS WITH
READINGS OF -21 TO -26C. GFS ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES WARMER. 500 MILLIBAR
CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ACROSS NRN WI OR U.P. WENT WITH A DRY DAY WITH
ALLBLEND POPS LOOKING GOOD IN THIS REGARD.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE TRENDING A LOW WELL SOUTH OF HERE THOUGH
THE CWA IS BRUSHED WITH SOME LIGHT QPF AT TIMES. SURFACE HIGH STILL
LOOKS IN CONTROL. ALTHOUGH A RENEWED STRONG JET CORE APPROACHES AND
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT RETURNS. AGAIN...WILL GO WITH THE FAIRLY SMALL
ALLBLEND POPS AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR TODAY WITH PATCHY -SN AND FLURRIES
SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT...AFT 03Z THROUGH 12Z. ANY
ACCUMULATION WOULD REMAIN LIGHT BUT ENOUGH WEAK FORCING TO LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR
LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AWAY FROM SHORE IN ICE FREE AREAS.
NEW HI RES MODIS VISIBLE IMAGE FROM SUNDAY SHOWS ICE REFORMING AND
THICKENING OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO KENOSHA. MORE AREAS OF ICE WERE NOTED AROUND
SHEBOYGAN. LIGHTER WINDS AND COLD TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN
AND REFORM TODAY.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KGRR 241656
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1156 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014

A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY/EARLY
MARCH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE AREA WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES THAT COULD APPROACH RECORD COLD TERRITORY FOR LOWS AND
MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES ON A COUPLE OF OCCASIONS. THE COLD
TEMPERATURES COMING IN OVER THE LIMITED ICE COVERED LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN OVER MOST OF
THE NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT LOOKS LIMITED
HOWEVER.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THINGS ARE ON
TRACK. FAIRLY STEADY STATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS ONGOING WITH
DELTA T/S BETWEEN THE LAKE SURFACE AND 850MB/S ON THE ORDER OF 15
TO 17 DEGREES C. MOISTURE PER OUR VAD WIND PROFILE IS UP THROUGH
ABOUT 5000FT SO RIGHT ABOUT AVERAGE FOR LAKE SNOWS. EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE TRACE AMOUNTS INLAND TOWARDS U.S. 127 TO A
HALF INCH OR SO IN SPOTS WEST OF HIGHWAY 131.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TONIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED
BOOST IN MOISTURE AND LIFT. ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS LIKELY TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL FINE TUNE THIS
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

ON A SIDE NOTE IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE MODIS SAT PIC
FROM TODAY AS THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THIN ICE AGAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE LAKE AND UP THE WESTERN SHORE
TOWARDS MILWAUKEE. THIS WILL HAVE SOME AFFECT ON FETCH LENGTH IN A
SOUTHWEST FLOW. OBVIOUSLY THE LAKE IS MUCH MORE OPEN THAN IT WAS A
WEEK OR SO AGO. THE MODIS PASSES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AT 1710Z TODAY
OR IN ABOUT 15 MINS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS ON
DETERMINING LAKE EFFECT TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FCST WILL
FEATURE FAIRLY HIGH PCPN CHCS FOR THE FAVORED AREAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WE ARE EXPECTING THESE HIGH CHCS TO YIELD LOW
AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE PCPN WITH SOME EMBEDDED ENHANCED TIME FRAMES.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FINALLY GOT GOING
ACROSS THE CWFA LAST EVENING. IT TOOK THE UPPER JET CORE DIVING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS ALOFT COOLING OFF ENOUGH TO
GENERATE THE LAKE EFFECT. THE LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN LIGHT THUS FAR
ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH BETTER LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF
LOWER MI.

WE EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND INCREASE A
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WE WILL
SEE TEMPS ALOFT DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO C...ONLY ADDING TO THE
INSTABILITY. EVEN WITH THE JET CORE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...INVERSION HTS ARE RELATIVELY LOW AROUND 5K FT OR SO.
LIMITING FACTORS FOR LAKE EFFECT TODAY ARE WEAK CONVERGENCE FIELDS
AND THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE. WE WILL SEE A WEAKENING TREND
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE JET CORE LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING WAVE.

THE BEST PERIOD FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL DIVE SE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE INVERSION HTS ABOVE
10K FT LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUE. WE WILL HAVE THE MOISTURE IN THAT
LAYER TO ASSIST IN THE SNOW SHOWERS...IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC
LIFT. THE AREA OF FOCUS WILL BE THE WNW FLOW FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK SO WE DO
NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT TO FALL.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS WE SEE COLDER
AIR START TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO ALMOST -25C TO -28C BY 12Z WED. INVERSION HTS WILL COME DOWN
A BIT BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE FROM LATE TONIGHT/TUE...HOWEVER THE
UPPER JET WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO WED AT 12Z WHICH WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL FAVORABLE. THE FLOW WILL START OUT FROM
THE WEST ON TUE AND SHIFT TO THE NW TUE EVENING. WE ACTUALLY SEE
SOME BETTER CONVERGENCE START TO SHOW UP TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE SW
WITH THE NW FLOW. THE PROBLEM BECOMES THAT THE DGZ BECOMES SO LOW
WITH THE ARCTIC AIR...THAT FLAKE SIZE WILL BECOME QUITE SMALL. THIS
WILL BECOME THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR AT THAT TIME.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON WED...HOWEVER WE EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO BECOME EVEN MORE LIMITED. EVEN WITH THE CORE OF THE
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE REGION AT THAT TIME...THE FLOW ALOFT
ACTUALLY BECOMES SOMEWHAT ANTI-CYCLONIC AS THE UPPER JET LIFTS
NORTH. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY JUST NORTH OF
THE CWFA. INVERSION HTS WILL LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 2-3K FT WITH A DGZ
THAT IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT AND BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER.

WED WILL BE OUR COLDEST DAY IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS THAT WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. OUR RECORD MINIMUM HIGH IS
10 DEGREES IN GRR WHICH COULD BE IN JEOPARDY. THE RECORD MINIMUM
HIGH FOR LAN IS 7 ABOVE, AND 12 ABOVE FOR MKG COULD ALSO BE IN
JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014

BITTER COLD WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH RECORD COLD
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS BOTH THE EURO AND GFS AGREE IN
BRINGING IN MINUS 25C AT 850 MB. THE SFC HIGH IS IN PLACE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SKIES COULD CLEAR...ALLOWING MINS TO PLUNGE WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE. THIS COULD BE THE COLDEST PERIOD RELATIVE TO NORMAL
OF THE ENTIRE WINTER.

NO BIG STORMS ARE IN THE OFFING BUT LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
PROVIDED BY THE ARCTIC FRONT. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT COULD LINGER
INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
APPARENTLY REMAINING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THIS USHERS IN YET ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH WHICH SHOULD BRING SUBZERO READINGS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SNOW
SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS,
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST TODAY AROUND WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014

BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
FAIRLY STABLE. INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND LESS CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK COULD RESULT IN SOME LESSENING OF THE SNOW/ICE PACK...BUT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXISTING SNOW/ICE PACK OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 240927
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 AM CST MON FEB 24 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
WITH TROUGH SHIFTING EAST...COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN. DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. 925 TEMPS DROP THROUGH THE MINUS TEENS CELSIUS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STEADY WNW WIND WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILLY TEMPS.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BITTER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO POUR IN. 925 TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 20-23C
WITH 925 WINDS 20-30 KNOTS. SO EXPECTING SOME PRETTY DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS SETTING UP...ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS COMBINED
WITH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT QUITE BITTER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH
DROPS TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SO WINDS WON/T REST MUCH AT ALL AS THE
SOUTHWEST REGIME AND WAA SETS UP AHEAD OF A 998MB OR SO LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. SURFACE TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO GET
TOO MUCH OF A KICK WITH MUCH OF THE WARMING ALOFT AND MIXED LAYER
REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. NORTHWEST
WINDS AND 925 TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW -20C ARRIVE. GRADIENT REMAINS
FAIRLY TIGHT FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP TO
CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN. AN ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY.

.THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RADIATIONAL SETUP OF THE WEEK FOR RECORDS TO FALL.
MEXMOS/GFS THE COLDEST OF ALL THE SOLUTIONS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
-20 TO -25 IN WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA. WILL LOWER TEMPS FROM THE ALLBLEND
BUT NOT GOING THAT LOW...AT LEAST NOT YET ANYWAYS. SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES
CLOSER AND WINDS ARE PROGGD TO BE LIGHTER THAN THE PRIOR TWO NIGHTS...
SO COLDEST AIR TEMPS LIKELY WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY MORE QUESTIONABLE.

.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX PUTS SRN WI IN A FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT
POSITION. 500 MILLIBAR FLOW IS BROADLY CYCLONIC WITH BEST VORT ACTION
NORTH. LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MORE PRONOUNCED ON ECMWF. WHILE
SOUNDINGS START OF QUITE DRY THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTENING VIA WEAK TO
MODERATE ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO MOISTEN THINGS UP ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES. 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN LINE WITH GFS TO BRING QPF INTO SRN
WI FOR PARTS OF FRI/FRI EVE. SO WENT WITH ALLBLEND POPS ON THIS.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. ECMWF COLDER ON THE 925 TEMPS WITH
READINGS OF -21 TO -26C. GFS ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES WARMER. 500 MILLIBAR
CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ACROSS NRN WI OR U.P. WENT WITH A DRY DAY WITH
ALLBLEND POPS LOOKING GOOD IN THIS REGARD.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE TRENDING A LOW WELL SOUTH OF HERE THOUGH
THE CWA IS BRUSHED WITH SOME LIGHT QPF AT TIMES. SURFACE HIGH STILL
LOOKS IN CONTROL. ALTHOUGH A RENEWED STRONG JET CORE APPROACHES AND
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT RETURNS. AGAIN...WILL GO WITH THE FAIRLY SMALL
ALLBLEND POPS AT THIS TIME.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR TODAY WITH PATCHY -SN AND FLURRIES
SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT...AFT 03Z THROUGH 12Z. ANY
ACCUMULATION WOULD REMAIN LIGHT BUT ENOUGH WEAK FORCING TO LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT.

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR
LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AWAY FROM SHORE IN ICE FREE AREAS.
NEW HI RES MODIS VISIBLE IMAGE FROM SUNDAY SHOWS ICE REFORMING AND
THICKENING OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO KENOSHA. MORE AREAS OF ICE WERE NOTED AROUND
SHEBOYGAN. LIGHTER WINDS AND COLD TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN
AND REFORM TODAY.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 232139
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
439 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A UPPER
LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AT THIS TIME. THIS UPPER LOW HAS
BEEN ROTATING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REPRESENTED ON THE 12Z KINL
SOUNDING. WITH THE OPEN WATER OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LOW...AND RAP ANALYZED 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -22C...HAVE BEEN SEEING LAKE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ON WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE OVER NORTHERN ONTONAGON...HOUGHTON
AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES. THERE WAS ONE STRONGER BAND THAT STRETCHED
FROM NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY TO JUST NORTH OF GRAND MARAIS. WHERE
THE RADAR CAN SAMPLE IT IT WAS INDICATING SNOWFALL RATES AROUND
0.5-1 INCH AN HOUR SOUTH EAST OF STANNARD ROCK WHERE IT HAS BEEN
AIDED BY ANOTHER AREA OF OPEN WATER. AS WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST...THIS BAND HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT DID GET A REPORT FROM WHITEFISH POINT OF AN
ESTIMATED 6-8 INCHES OF SNOW. WOULD EXPECT AMOUNTS THAT HIGH IN
NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY WITH THE MOVEMENT BUT THINK AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3
INCH RANGE ARE REASONABLE SINCE THIS MORNING.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...IT WILL
SWEEP A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SFC-850MB TROUGH SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. THESE TROUGHS WILL ACT TO PROVIDE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND TURN THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. 850MB TEMPS OF -23C WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF
OVER THE LAKE INSTABILITY WHERE THERE IS OPEN WATER (INVERSION
HEIGHTS TO 6-7KFT). THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF AN UNCERTAINTY ON
THE ICE COVERAGE...BUT BASED OFF YESTERDAY/S MODIS IMAGE AND
LOCATION OF LAKE CLOUDS TODAY...IT APPEARS THERE IS DECENT OPEN
WATER FROM TWO HARBORS MINNESOTA TO ISLE ROYALE...THEN
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ISLE ROYALE TO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALSO TO
THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW AND TOWARDS MARQUETTE. WHERE ICE CAN BE
MADE OUT...THERE HAS BEEN DECENT MOVEMENT WITH THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20-30KTS. WITH WEAKENING WINDS INCREASING THE RESIDENCE
TIME OVER THE 20-30MI AREA OF OPEN WATER OVER THE WEST
TONIGHT...THINK THAT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO OCCUR FROM CALUMET SOUTHWEST TO
IRONWOOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY AND LOW DEFINITE POPS
FOR THOSE AREAS TONIGHT. NORTH OF CALUMET IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN ONCE
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO MORE ICE BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND
THUNDER BAY AND SMALLER GAPS IN THE FIRST 10-15MI SOUTHEAST FROM
ISLE ROYALE. THEREFORE...WILL HAVE THE POPS LOWER INTO THE LOW END
LIKELY CATEGORY ONCE THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.
OVERALL...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE 1-4 INCH
RANGE. GUSTY THIS EVENING (TO 35MPH)...BUT WITH THE LOW WEAKENING
AND SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND
TO THE WINDS. THIS WILL LEADING TO IMPROVING VISIBILITIES FROM THE
BLOWING SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. SINCE WE ARE STILL
GETTING REPORTS FROM OBS/WEBCAMS/SPOTTERS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW
1/2MI AT TIMES...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL COVER THE EVENING TRAVEL PERIOD BEFORE THE WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER EAST...THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
LUCE AND THEN TRANSITIONING INTO ALGER COUNTY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
FETCH ACROSS THE OPEN WATER THAT LIKELY COVERS A DECENT PORTION OF
LSZ265. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND PROBABLY SOME LAND BREEZE
INFLUENCE...WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE SOME ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT
BAND AFFECTING THE COUNTY AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONED THE BAND
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING TO AROUND AND JUST EAST OF MUNISING AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH A POTENTIAL FETCH OF 80MI AND SOME UPSTREAM
MOISTENING OVER THE WESTERN LAKE...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
ARE SOME LOCALIZED 4 INCH AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IF THE BAND STALLS IN
AN AREA FOR A FEW HOURS. EAST OF THERE...THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY LIMIT AMOUNTS AND ONLY HAVE VALUES IN THE 1 TO MAYBE 2
INCH RANGE.

WILL START TO SEE THE AFFECT OF RIDGING UPSTREAM THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
850MB TEMPERATURES (ALONG WITH SOME DRYING AND BACKING WINDS) FROM
WEST TO EAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS...WILL FOLLOW THAT
TREND FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014

THE CWA WILL BE DOMINATED BY LOW WIND CHILLS...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
LES FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF W TO NW FLOW OVER GAPS IN THE CONSIDERABLE
LAKE ICE COVER.

MON NIGHT...THE STRONGEST 850-500 MB QVECTOR CONV AND
LOWER LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
IA INTO SRN WI AND NRN IL. WRLY FLOW LES BANDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY AS
WINDS VEER TO WNW BEHIND A WEAK SFC TROUGH. WITH CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT OF OPEN WATER AND INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY
AROUND 5K FT...MENTIONED LIKELY POPS BUT WITH FCST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ONLY OF AROUND AN INCH OR TWO.

TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHRTWV WITH AN ARCTIC
FRONT BRINGING IN EVEN COLDER AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE TUE INTO
TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW PUSHING THE LIGHT LES OVER A
GRATER PORTION OF THE ERN CWA. WITH MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -4F
TO -14F RANGE...WIND CHILLS SHOULD ALSO FALL INTO THE -20 TO -30
RANGE.

WED-FRI...A STRONGER SHRTWV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AS THE
POLAR TROUGH MOVES INTO NRN ONTARIO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO
THE NW TO NNW BEHIND THIS FEATURE AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND
-31C THU. WITH THE STRONGER NW WINDS...THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED THU MORNING INTO THE -25 TO -35 RANGE EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
SOME MODIFICATION OVER THE MOSTLY FROZEN LAKE. WITH LIGHTER WINDS
AND FEW CLOUDS BY FRI AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
AREA...TEMPS SHOULD DROP AT LEAST INTO THE -15 TO -25 RANGE OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME -30S EVEN POSSIBLE FOR TRADITIONAL COLD
SPOTS.

SAT-SUN...THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS
BUT WITH THE POLAR TROUGH LINGERING NEAR JAMES BAY...ANOTHER BOUT OF
LOWER 850 MB TEMPS AND HIGHER WINDS MAY MOVE IN BY SAT WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND CONTINUED COLD ON SUN WITH THE ARCTIC RIDGE
DOMINATING THE NRN LAKES. BY THE WEEKEND...THE ICE COVER IS LIKELY
TO SOLIDIFY...REDUCING LES CHANCES/AMOUNTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014

COLD AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME OPEN WATER OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN THE WEST
WIND SNOW BELTS AND LARGELY AFFECTING KCMX FOR MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND DURING THE EVENING...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT AT KIWD AND HAVE LOWER VISIBILITIES. BUT THIS TURN IN
THE WINDS COULD INFLUENCE KCMX SNOWFALL...AS THERE WILL BE MORE OF
AN ICE SHADOW DUE TO THE INCREASED ICE NEAR ISLE ROYALE. MAINLY
IMPROVED VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE WEAKENING WINDS AND IF ICE
COVERAGE IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...VISIBILITIES MAY BE LOWER THAN
EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAY LEAD TO AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD.

AT KSAW...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ISN/T TOO FAVORABLE FOR LESS THAN
VFR CONDITIONS FROM LAKE EFFECT BUT WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH DID LOWER TO MVFR CEILINGS AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. HAVE A FEELING THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LEAD TO
VALUES RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF VFR/MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014

THE WEAKENING LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL COMBINE WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO LEAD TO GRADUALLY DECREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE BEEN SEEING THE GALES
PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE STANNARD
ROCK AND GRANITE ISLAND OBS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UPSTREAM OBS
GENERALLY IN THE 30KT RANGE...WOULD EXPECT THE EASTERN SITES TO
COME DOWN SHORTLY. THUS...WILL ALLOW THE GALE WARNING OVER THE
EASTERN LAKE TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AND HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED THE
WESTERN LAKE. EVEN WITH THIS DIMINISHMENT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30KT RANGE FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ001-
003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 231606 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1006 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2014

.UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO TODAY\S FORECAST. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LATEST MODELS STILL INDICATE HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

HIGH CLOUDS BRUSHING FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD PUSH OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MRNG AS WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET SAGS SOUTH. COLD...DRY AIR
IN PLACE TODAY WITH 85H TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY. EXPECTING DAYTIME TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE PERSISTENT WESTERLY BREEZES
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW.

SLIGHT INCREASE IN CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WESTERN GTLAKES TONIGHT AS
SHORT WAVE SPOKE ROTATES AROUND HUDSON BAY AREA UPPER LOW. WEAK
PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI AND CLIPS NORTHEAST
WI OVERNIGHT. WEAK FORCING AND SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY CAUSE SOME CLOUD INCREASE INTO NORTHEAST CWA OVERNIGHT
WHICH WOULD AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. HOWEVER PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL MIXINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE ZERO TO 5 ABOVE RANGE MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
ELONGATED CYCLONIC VORT SHEAR ZONE LIFTS NORTHEAST. VORTICITY
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE REMAINS TO
OUR WEST. ALL THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON KEEPING PRECIP WITH
THIS FEATURE TO OUR WEST. SO THE DRY FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK. CORE OF COLDEST 850 TEMPS NUDGE NORTHEAST AS WELL WITH 850
RIDGE NUDGING CLOSER. SURFACE HIGH DRAWS CLOSER WHICH SLACKENS
GRADIENT. WINDS EASE A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 925 TEMPS
AROUND -12 TO -15C WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.

MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH THE VORTICITY ADVECTION. WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. GFS HAS TRENDED PRECIP TO
OUR SOUTH...WHILE NAM IS SLOWER AND ECMWF HAS DROPPED QPF FROM
EARLIER RUNS. QPF NUMBERS VARY FROM TRACE/NEAR NIL ON THE NAM AND
GFS TO NEAR 0.02 ON THE ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER.
SO CAME UP WITH ANYWHERE FROM 0.2 IN THE NORTHEAST TO UP TO 0.8 IN
IN THE PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTH...THOUGH THAT MAY BE TOO ROBUST
GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WITH TROUGH SHIFTING EAST...COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN. DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. 925 TEMPS DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY DAYS END. STEADY WNW WIND
WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILLY TEMPS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BITTER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO POUR IN. 925 TEMPS DROP TO 20-23C
WITH 925 WINDS 20-30 KNOTS. SO EXPECTING SOME PRETTY DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS SETTING UP. WHILE SOME EASING OF GRADIENT TOWARDS
MORNING...STILL LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A 10 KNOT WIND IN THE WESTERN
CWA WITH A BIT HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE EAST. TEMPS WON/T DROP LIKE IN
AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL SETUP...BUT THE PURE ADVECTION OF THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT QUITE BITTER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE HIGH DROPS TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SO WINDS WON/T
REST MUCH AT ALL AS THE SOUTHWEST REGIME AND WAA SETS UP AHEAD OF
A SYSTEM DROPS IN TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPS
NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO MUCH OF A KICK WITH MUCH OF THE WARMING
ALOFT AND MIXED LAYER REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
NORTHWEST WINDS AND 925 TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW -20C ARRIVE.
GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ONCE
AGAIN. TRENDED TEMPS COLDER THAN GUIDANCE LEARNING MORE TOWARDS A
MIX OF ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED AND ALLBLEND.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. THINK THE
DRIER AND COLDER ECMWF IS PREFERRED THOUGH GFS STILL SHOWING A
WEAK TROUGH WITH MODIFIED TEMPS AND LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVE. WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT
FOR NOW STUCK WITH ALLBLEND. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS LOOK LESS OF
A FACTOR THIS PERIOD...SO WHILE LIKELY STILL QUITE CHILLY...NOT AS
BAD AS PRIOR WITH CORE OF HIGH DRAWING CLOSER.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW CU
MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTN BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVE.

MARINE...LATEST HI RES MODIS IMAGE FROM SATURDAY SHOWS ALL OF THE
THICKER ICE OVER THE NEARSHORE AND MID-LAKE WATERS HAS BROKEN UP DUE
TO THE RECENT WARMER TEMPS AND HIGH WINDS. HOWEVER SOME THIN ICE
HAS REFORMED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NEAR SHORE AND OPEN
WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM KENOSHA NORTH TO EAST OF MILWAUKEE AND
AROUND PORT WASHINGTON AND SHEBOYGAN. WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING
TO GET REINFORCED...EXPECT MORE ICE DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEK.

WEST WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED MOSTLY BELOW 22 KNOTS HENCE WL
CANCEL ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM SHORE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS AND IN
NORTHERN MARINE ZONE /LMZ643/. HOWEVER BORDERLINE SITUATION WITH
LIMITED CRAFT ON WATER DUE TO PATCHY ICE...SO WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WL MENTION OCNL
G25KTS IN NSH HOWEVER.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SM/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 231005
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
505 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2014

STRONG GUSTY WINDS REMAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS THE REGION REMAINS STUCK BETWEEN
THE SFC LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEARING FROM
SW/SCENTRAL CANADA. STILL HAVING 30 TO NEAR 35KT WINDS BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND 40KT WIND GUSTS STILL
AT STANNARD ROCK AT 09Z.

LATEST MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON DID SHOW
PLENTY OF OPEN WATER...OR NEARLY OPEN WATER OVER FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR
/NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN UP TO ISLE ROYALE...AND JUST E OF THE
APOSTLE ISLANDS/. ANOTHER POCKET OF LIKELY CLEARING IS E OF THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WITH WINDS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
DIMINISHING...WILL KEEP BLOWING SNOW AND LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FCST FOR THE TYPICAL W TO WNW FLOW AREAS TODAY. CMX HAS BEEN
INDICATING LESS THAN 1SM SINCE 23/02Z...WITH NO REAL SIGNS OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE KEWEENAW
SLIGHTLY AFTER LOOKING AT THE PRIOR 6HR PRECIP AMOUNTS...WHICH
LOOKED A BIT HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...STILL EXPECT LES TO PERSIST...AIDED BY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH AND THE MORE BROAD 500MB SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN
FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPECT WNW WINDS TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE NW TONIGHT...WITH LES
SNOW BANDS MOVING MORE ONSHORE E OF MARQUETTE AS STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCHES
CLOSER TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2IN OF SNOW
FROM IWD UP THROUGH THE SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND NE OF
LINE FROM MARQUETTE TO ERY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2014

BIGGEST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE WITH THE RETURN OF EXTREMELY
COLD AIR AND LIGHT-MODERATE LES.

FOR LES CONSIDERATIONS...SOME BREAK UP OF LAKE SUPERIOR ICE HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE STRONG WLY WINDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED LES ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

MON WILL SEE DIMINISHING NW FLOW LES POPS AS A RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD
AND 850MB TEMPS DECREASE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID TEENS BELOW ZERO.
WILL SEE SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...EACH ONE PULLING DOWN MORE COLD AIR UNTIL A POLAR LOW
MOVES TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY 12Z THU. 850MB TEMPS AOB -30C MOVE INTO
THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES YET AGAIN. THU LOOKS TO SEE THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE COLDEST. WILL LIKELY BREAK
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...AND POSSIBLY SOME DAILY
RECORD LOWS.

SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK...BUT GREATER OF THE CONFIDENCE VERY UNCERTAIN SO DID NOT
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014

WITH WEAKENING LOW PRES REMAINING IN THE VCNTY OF FAR NRN
ONTARIO/JAMES BAY AND HIGH PRES CONTINUING TO RIDGE SE FROM THE SRN
CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BLUSTERY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW...BUT ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX SITE. WITH
WINDS GUSTING OVER 30KT AT KCMX OVERNIGHT THRU THE AFTN...BLSN WILL
LIKELY KEEP PREVAILING VIS IN THE LIFR CATEGORY. EXPECT SOME
FLUCTUATION WITH VIS IMPROVING TO IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS AS WELL AS
FALLING TO VLIFR. WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS AND SOME GAPS IN THE ICE
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE WILL BE OCNL -SHSN AT
KCMX...WHICH WILL ASSIST THE LOWER VISIBILITIES. DISTURBANCE SHOULD
INCREASE -SHSN FREQUENCY TODAY...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN VIS FALLING
MORE FREQUENTLY TO BLO 1/2SM. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
IFR THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER MORE TO THE NW AND DIMINISH SOME...
RESULTING IN LESS BLSN.

AT KIWD/KSAW...SRN EDGE OF STRATOCU/MVFR CIGS WILL BE NEAR KIWD
OVERNIGHT WHILE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW. DEEPER MOISTURE/DISTURBANCE ROTATING INTO THE
AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY SHOULD PRODUCE A MORE SOLID MVFR CLOUD
DECK AS WELL AS SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES. AFTER THE STRONG WINDS OF
RECENT DAYS...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT OPEN WATER OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR TO SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS IN -SHSN AT KIWD THIS EVENING AS
WINDS VEER MORE TO THE NW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY WILL EXIT INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN TODAY TO SINK ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO
PASS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. W GALES 35-40KTS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY CENTRAL AND E LAKE
SUPERIOR IN BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW...AND NEARING HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE NW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MANITOBA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SWING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE EXITING TO THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND ND
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BROADEN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001-
003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ240>246-263>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 230922
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
322 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
ELONGATED CYCLONIC VORT SHEAR ZONE LIFTS NORTHEAST. VORTICITY
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE REMAINS TO
OUR WEST. ALL THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON KEEPING PRECIP WITH
THIS FEATURE TO OUR WEST. SO THE DRY FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK. CORE OF COLDEST 850 TEMPS NUDGE NORTHEAST AS WELL WITH 850
RIDGE NUDGING CLOSER. SURFACE HIGH DRAWS CLOSER WHICH SLACKENS
GRADIENT. WINDS EASE A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 925 TEMPS
AROUND -12 TO -15C WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.

.MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH THE VORTICITY ADVECTION. WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. GFS HAS TRENDED PRECIP TO
OUR SOUTH...WHILE NAM IS SLOWER AND ECMWF HAS DROPPED QPF FROM
EARLIER RUNS. QPF NUMBERS VARY FROM TRACE/NEAR NIL ON THE NAM AND
GFS TO NEAR 0.02 ON THE ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER.
SO CAME UP WITH ANYWHERE FROM 0.2 IN THE NORTHEAST TO UP TO 0.8 IN
IN THE PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTH...THOUGH THAT MAY BE TOO ROBUST
GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WITH TROUGH SHIFTING EAST...COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN. DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. 925 TEMPS DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY DAYS END. STEADY WNW WIND
WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILLY TEMPS.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BITTER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO POUR IN. 925 TEMPS DROP TO 20-23C
WITH 925 WINDS 20-30 KNOTS. SO EXPECTING SOME PRETTY DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS SETTING UP. WHILE SOME EASING OF GRADIENT TOWARDS
MORNING...STILL LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A 10 KNOT WIND IN THE WESTERN
CWA WITH A BIT HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE EAST. TEMPS WON/T DROP LIKE IN
AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL SETUP...BUT THE PURE ADVECTION OF THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT QUITE BITTER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE HIGH DROPS TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SO WINDS WON/T
REST MUCH AT ALL AS THE SOUTHWEST REGIME AND WAA SETS UP AHEAD OF
A SYSTEM DROPS IN TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPS
NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO MUCH OF A KICK WITH MUCH OF THE WARMING
ALOFT AND MIXED LAYER REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
NORTHWEST WINDS AND 925 TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW -20C ARRIVE.
GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ONCE
AGAIN. TRENDED TEMPS COLDER THAN GUIDANCE LEARNING MORE TOWARDS A
MIX OF ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED AND ALLBLEND.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. THINK THE
DRIER AND COLDER ECMWF IS PREFERRED THOUGH GFS STILL SHOWING A
WEAK TROUGH WITH MODIFIED TEMPS AND LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVE. WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT
FOR NOW STUCK WITH ALLBLEND. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS LOOK LESS OF
A FACTOR THIS PERIOD...SO WHILE LIKELY STILL QUITE CHILLY...NOT AS
BAD AS PRIOR WITH CORE OF HIGH DRAWING CLOSER.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW CU
MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTN BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVE.

.MARINE...LATEST HI RES MODIS IMAGE FROM SATURDAY SHOWS ALL OF THE
THICKER ICE OVER THE NEARSHORE AND MID-LAKE WATERS HAS BROKEN UP DUE
TO THE RECENT WARMER TEMPS AND HIGH WINDS. HOWEVER SOME THIN ICE
HAS REFORMED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NEAR SHORE AND OPEN
WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM KENOSHA NORTH TO EAST OF MILWAUKEE AND
AROUND PORT WASHINGTON AND SHEBOYGAN. WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING
TO GET REINFORCED...EXPECT MORE ICE DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEK.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 222111
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014

THE LOW THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY HAS BECOME STATIONARY NEAR CAPE
HENRIETTA MARIA BETWEEN HUDSON BAY AND JAMES BAY. THIS NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW WILL COMBINE WITH A 1028MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM A HIGH IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO CREATE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AND
PART OF SUNDAY. THUS...THE WINDS AND RESULTING BLOWING SNOW (MAINLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW) WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

WITH THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AND COLDER AIR ALOFT SPILLING INTO THE REGION...WOULD
EXPECT THE GUSTY CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. EVEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WINDS AT
KCMX HAVE FALLEN TO ONLY 35-40MPH. UPSTREAM AT ISLE ROYALE...WINDS
ARE STILL GUSTING TO SIMILAR VALUES AND WITH MODELS SHOWING GUSTS
TO 35KTS THROUGH BETWEEN 06-12Z...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE
KEWEENAW TONIGHT. SINCE MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS DIMINISHED AT
KCMX...SEEING MORE OF A SPOTTY NATURE TO THE WORST VISIBILITIES ON
WEBCAMS AND THE KCMX OBS. THUS...THINKING THAT THE GOING ENDING
TIME FOR THE BLIZZARD WARNING IS REASONABLE AND THE EVENING SHIFT
WILL BE ABLE TO LET IT EXPIRE. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER A ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED TO COVER THE LINGERING BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OR IF
IT COULD BE COVERED BY AN SPS. ALMOST LEANING TOWARDS AN SPS...BUT
WILL ALLOW EVENING SHIFT TO SEE HOW VISIBILITIES ARE DOING OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN DECIDE. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LITTLE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON WEBCAMS IN GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES...HAVE
CANCELLED THE EXISTING WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THERE.

OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...A SHORTWAVE THAT WAS OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED EAST-SOUTHEAST AND IS MOVING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THIS TRACK...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CWA UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...THINK
MUCH OF THE CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON LAKE EFFECT. WITH RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -17C AND MODELS SHOWING THAT FALLING TO -23C BY 00Z
MONDAY...THERE IS PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY IF WATER IS
PRESENT ON LAKE SUPERIOR. TODAY/S MODIS IMAGE SHOWS SOME OPEN WATER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA AND ALSO TO THE
EAST OF THE KEWEENAW. THEREFORE...WITH THE WESTERLY 925MB WINDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...HAVE FOCUSED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THOSE PATCHES OF OPEN WATER.
THIS MAINLY AFFECTS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WITH WINDS SHIFTING A
LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE SLOWLY
TRANSITIONED POPS TOWARDS THAT DIRECTION. DIDN/T PUT MUCH FOR
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO) INTO THE FORECAST DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS LIKELY LIMITING FETCH ACROSS THE OPEN
WATER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW CLOSE TO LAKE
SUPERIOR. WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING ACROSS HUDSON
BAY...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE WED-FRI WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO ONCE AGAIN.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL SUNDAY NIGHT THEN FINALLY MOVE EAST BY MONDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A UPPER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PBL WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS VEERING OF WIND COMBINED WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
PERHAPS TO THE ALGER/MARQUETTE COUNTY BORDER. IN ADDITION...LES
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BUT THIS
IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FLUXES OVER THE SEMI-OPEN AREAS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. ONE WOULD THINK THAT WITH THE WIND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
THAT THE ICE ON THE LAKE HAS BROKEN UP SOME. IN FACT...TODAY/S MODIS
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SEVERAL LARGER BREAKS HAVE OPENED ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKE AS WELL AS EAST OF THE KEWEENAW. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A LITTLE MINI BAND OF ENHANCED LES JUST EAST OF THE
KEWEENAW ORIENTED INTO FAR WESTERN ALGER COUNTY...ESPECIALLY IF WE
CAN SEE ENHANCED LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AS THE WINDS VEER TO NW.
FOR NOW...WILL RAISE POPS TO 50 PCT ACROSS ALL OF ALGER INTO LUCE
COUNTIES AND RAISE POPS TO CHC CATEGORY IN ERN MQT COUNTY. BEHIND
THIS SHORT WAVE...LIGHT LES WILL CONTINUE IN THE KEWEENAW AND INTO
ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW. ONCE
AGAIN...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR IF FLUXES WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE LES OFF THE LAKE. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST CHANCE
POPS. WINDS BACK TO WNW TUE AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW ANY LES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EXCEPT FOR THE KEWEENAW.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WED-SAT...CONTINUES TO LOOK EXTREMELY COLD.
THE 12Z NWP CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE
ARCTIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...OPENING THE DOOR FOR ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MODELS STILL SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -30 TO -34C BY THU EVENING
WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO DURING THE
DAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FCST TO QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THU
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIVE COOLING...THUS
DROPPING SFC TEMPS TO -20F OR LOWER. IF THE SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS GO
LIGHT...THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS SIMILAR TO EARLY MARCH
2003 WHERE NWS MQT SAW A MIN TEMP OF -31F. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
LOWS FRIDAY MORNING -20 TO -25 BELOW. PERHAPS SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPS BY SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT 850MB WARMING...BUT THE WINDS WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING AS THE ARCTIC HIGH STRENGTHENS LEADING TO A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH...APPARENT TEMPS
WILL NOT FEEL MUCH DIFFERENT INTO THE WEEKEND. JUST TO NOTE...THE
LATEST CFS /CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM/ GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH OF MARCH
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUSTS AT KCMX...TO 35-40KTS...THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND THEN A SLIGHT DECREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING SNOW AND
VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER MILE. AS THE WINDS
DIMINISH...VISIBILITIES MAY TRY TO COME UP SLIGHTLY...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE IN THE 1/2SM RANGE. WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS AND SOME GAPS
IN THE ICE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AT KCMX TOO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL ASSIST THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES.

FOR KIWD/KSAW...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SCATTERED/BROKEN CU FIELD BUT EXPECT THAT TO
DIMINISH ONCE DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. THEN THE WESTERLY WINDS
WON/T BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT AND KEPT CLOUDS SCATTERED.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ROTATE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AND COULD PRODUCE A MORE SOLID MVFR CLOUD DECK.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE WESTERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35-40KTS TONIGHT. AS THE
LOW WEAKENS ON SUNDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND LEAD TO WINDS
DROPPING TO 30KTS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ240>246-
263>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 220956
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
456 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014

THE OCCLUDED LOW THAT MOVED ACROSS THE CWA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER
JAMES BAY WITH A SFC PRESSURE OF 978MB. THE LOW WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING TO AROUND 992MB. THIS
PLACES THE CWA BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS
STATES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WHILE
THE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS...THE RIDGE TO THE SW WILL BE BUILDING SO
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA ONLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS LEADS TO CONDITIONS BE NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH SLIGHT AND GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF WINDS AND PRECIP.

AT THE PRESENT...WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 45MPH AT CMX AND 30MPH
AT IWD...WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. VISIBILITIES
ARE STILL LOW OVER THE WRN CWA FROM THE BLOWING SNOW...AND WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY QUITE GUSTY TODAY DECIDED TO EXTEND THE
BLIZZARD WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES UNTIL 00Z SUN.
BLOWING SNOW WILL ULTIMATELY CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM OVER THE WRN
U.P. TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY TO A LESSER DEGREE AS WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH...SO DID NOT EXTEND HAZARDS BEYOND TODAY. THINK THAT PRECIP
WILL BE MINOR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED OVER WRN
UPPER MI...BUT THAT WILL ONLY ADD TO THE BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014

NO LARGE CHANGE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT A RETURN TO THE DEEP FREEZE
IS COMING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER ALASKA AND CANADIAN YUKON BUILDING WHILE ANOTHER
RIDGE EXPANDS OVER SKANDINAVIA AND NORTHWEST RUSSIA. RESULT IS UPPER
LEVEL VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH POLE DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARD
HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN
ACROSS GREAT LAKES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. COLD AIR ARRIVES ON
WEDNESDAY BUT CORE OF COLDEST TEMPS SLATED FOR NEXT THURSDAY WHEN
H85 TEMPS DROP BLO -30C. LIKELY THAT BOTH THESE DAYS WILL NOT
FEATURE SOME SORT OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES OVER CWA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DEEP TROUGH ALOFT FINALLY RELAXES GRIP
ALLOWING WRAPPED UP SFC LOW TO UNRAVEL AS IT MOVES INTO QUEBEC.
WINDS SHOULD FINALLY COME DOWN TO MORE MANAGEABLE LEVELS. WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WILL SWING A SFC TROUGH VEERING WINDS
FROM WNW TO NW...WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT REARRANGE THE ONGOING LGT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET BOOST ON SUNDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND ALSO AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
TO H7 WORKS THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND INVERSIONS RISE UP ABOVE
5KFT. MOST RECENT ANALYSIS AND MODIS IMAGE FOR ICE COVER INDICATED
DECENT AREA OF OPEN WATER OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE NORTH OF
MQT/P53 AND TO NW OF WHITEFISH POINT. RADAR SHOWING HIGHER ECHOES
WITH THE LAKE EFFECT BAND THERE CURRENTLY SO THAT OPEN WATER MAY
STILL BE THERE. LOW-LEVEL WIND FM WNW WILL TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF
SUCH AN ORIENTED FETCH OF OPEN WATER...SO AN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
BAND COULD TRY TO FORM LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. 925-850MB TEMPS AT OR BLO
-18C LEAD TO MINIMAL DGZ WITHIN THAT LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER SO SMALL
FLAKES AND LOW VSBY COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF MUNISING AND TO THE NORTH OF NEWBERRY. SCT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
MOST OF LK SUPERIOR SEEM REASONBALE WITH SOME PATCHY BLSN AS WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MAIN IMPACT FARTHER INLAND WILL
BE CLOUDS WITH FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR AND/OR THE MID CLOUDS FM THE
SHORTWAVE. CLOUDS WILL HOLD UP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT FAR
WEST AND SW/SCNTRL MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP OFF
ENOUGH TO HAVE WIND CHILLS NEARING ADVY CRITERIA. WINDS BACK ENOUGH
MONDAY AFTN TO PUSH LAKE EFFECT BACK TOWARD THE SHORE.

MID CLOUDS WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. ECMWF
FARTHER NORTH WITH SOME LGT QPF FM THE WAVE WHILE THE GFS AND GEM
SHUNT THEIR QPF FARTHER SOUTH. GFS SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UVM FAR ENOUGH DOWN IN THE SOUNDING TO GENERATE
AT LEAST SOME LGT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE QUALITY IS UNCERTAIN
THOUGH. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE FLOW WILL
ALREADY BE ONSHORE. INVERSIONS CHANGE LITTLE THOUGH SO EVEN WHERE
WINDS WILL BE FLOWING ACROSS OPEN WATER AREAS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. YET ANOTHER SFC TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH LATER TUESDAY WITH WHAT IS THE FIRST PUSH OF THE VERY COLD
AIR SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA. H85 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -28C BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO SHIFT AROUND TO MORE NW FAVORED
SNOWBELTS AND SHOW AN UPTICK TO THE INTENSITY WITH BEST SHOT AT SOME
ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN SNOWBELTS DUE TO THE UPSTREAM OPEN WATER.
INVERSIONS RESPOND WITH THIS WAVE...POSSIBLY UP TO 7KFT IN THE EAST.
AGAIN...GIVEN THE ABSCENT DGZ FROM LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER...MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE LOW VSBY DUE TO THE SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS AND
BLSN. ARRIVAL OF THIS FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR ALSO RESULTS IN LOWER
WIND CHILL READINGS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.

WINDS BACK MORE W/SW ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE
THAT BRINGS IN PRIMARY COLD ADVECTION. GFS/GEM-NH INDICATE SFC
TROUGH AND BITTER COLD ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF
IS DELAYED TIL LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LIKELY EITHER
SCNEARIO WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL HEADLINE ISSUES THURSDAY MORNING
AND PROBABLY FRIDAY MORNING TOO. LAKE EFFECT RESURGES TOO IN WAKE OF
THE TROUGH PASSAGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED...BUT DOES APPEAR THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
KIND OF WIDESPREAD SNOW SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH...YOU GUESSED
IT...MORE COLD IN ITS WAKE TO START THE NEW MONTH. HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW THAT ALL WORKS OUT BUT IT CERTAINLY FITS THE PERSISTENCE
IDEA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014

AS DEEP LO PRES CONTINUES SLOWLY TO THE NE THRU ONTARIO THIS FCST
PERIOD...THE GUSTY W WINDS BUFFETING UPR MI WL SLOWLY DIMINISH.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/VLIFR CONDITIONS BLO LANDING MINIMUMS WL PLAGUE
CMX THRU 12Z SAT BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LIFR AS THE WINDS AND
ACCOMPANYING BLSN SLOWLY SUBSIDE. AT IWD...THE SLOWLY WEAKENING CYC
FLOW/SHSN AND BLSN WL ALLOW IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD
TO IMPROVE TO MVFR. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES AT
SAW...DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF FLOW AT THAT SITE SHOULD RESULT IN
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS AT THAT SITE THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014

LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER JAMES BAY
AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT W GALES OVER OVER MUCH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
LAKE SLOWLY WEAKENS. AFTER THIS TIME...NO GALES ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ240>251-
263>267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 220928
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

TODAYS FORECAST CONCERN FOCUSES ON THREAT OF --SN OVER FAR SOUTH.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WIND PROFILER NETWORK SHOWS WEAK UPSTREAM
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER SD/NE/IA AREA MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
KFSD 88D HAS SMALL AREAS OF DBZ EXCEEDING 30 JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE RADAR...LIKELY ASSOCD WITH -SN REACHING GROUND. 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE DOES LIE ACROSS SRN WI AND THE REGION...HOWEVER WEAK
ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON 285
THETA SURFACE REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE IL BORDER THIS MRNG AND
EARLY AFTN. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ALSO STAYS JUST TO THE SOUTH. FEW
FLURRIES COULD BRUSH THE FAR SOUTH...BUT FOR NOW WL CONTINUE DRY
FORECAST AND BEEF UP THE CLOUDS FOR A TIME OVER THE SOUTH. EXPECT
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S. GUSTINESS TO PERSIST TODAY MOST
AREAS DUE TO LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL MIXINESS.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME MIXINESS IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE. WIND CHILLS
TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO AROUND 13 BELOW.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW PERSISTS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A PRONOUNCED ELONGATED VORT AXIS.
COLDER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE REINFORCED WITH PERSISTENT WNW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. STILL SHOWING 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 925 MILLIBARS. WITH
RIDGE AXIS STILL IN THE PLAINS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING
GRADIENT TO KEEP A STEADY WEST BREEZE IN PLACE.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE SHIFTS NORTHEAST
WITH BRIEF AND BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING INTO THE AREA.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST SO LIGHTER WIND REGIME.
MODELS HAVE PULLED BACK FURTHER ON PRECIP INTO SW CWA. THE 00Z ECMWF
THE LATEST TO GO THE SLOWER ROUTE. SO WILL GO DRY CWA WIDE.

.MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 500 MILLIBAR VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE
PROGGD TO MOVE ACROSS SRN WI WITH MODERATE UPTICK IN 700-300
MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. ISENTROPIC FORCING DOES NOT LOOK VERY
FAVORABLE AND UPPER JET CORE POSITIONED WITH MORE OF A LEFT REAR
PLACEMENT FOR SRN WI. MOISTURE INFLUX NOT GREAT EITHER...SO WILL
KEEP AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FAVORING MORE THE GEM/GFS QPF
NUMBERS. NAM LOOKS TOO DRY...IN FACT NAM IS COMPLETELY DRY AT THIS
POINT. ECMWF LOOKS TOO GENEROUS ON QPF. EXPECTING A HALF INCH FOR
MOST LOCALES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM COLD ADVECTION
DOMINATES WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO -20 TO -25C THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONCERNED ABOUT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY SCENARIO TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH 925 TEMPS DROPPING TO -22 TO -24C WILL
TREND TOWARDS THE COLDER GUIDANCE BUT ENVIRONMENT LOOKS FAIRLY MIXED
WITH 925 WINDS RUNNING 20-30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOULD SEE
SUBZERO LOWS CWA WIDE WITH WIND CHILLS POTENTIALLY DROPPING BELOW
THE -20F THRESHOLD TUE NGT/WED MRNG. SHORTWAVE RIDES TO OUR NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. BRIEF 850 WAA WITH STG 50 KNOT SIGNAL SHOWING UP. TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 10 ABOVE. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SO
BRISK WITH BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW MODELS DIVERGE THIS PERIOD.
GFS BRINGS A QUICK REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THURSDAY
BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO A WAA REGIME WITH PRECIP CHANCES
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE COLD BLAST UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT KEEPS THE DRY LOOK. WILL STICK WITH THE ALLBLEND
APPROACH AT THIS TIME.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/....AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
WL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING AT
TAF SITES AS WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH BUT
ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEST WINDS WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG TODAY...BUT STILL SOME GUSTINESS WILL CONTINUE.

.MARINE...LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS LIKELY TO
EXCEED 22 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN MARINE ZONES. HENCE WL
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY.

HI RES MODIS IMAGE FROM FRIDAY SHOWS THE RECENT WARMER TEMPS AND
STRONG WINDS HAVE CAUSED THE THICKER ICE AREAS OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND MELT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE RETURN OF COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST AREAS
OF THIN ICE TO REFORM. WILL ADD SOME FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS TO THIS
NEARSHORE FORECAST BUT WILL TEMPER HEIGHTS DUE TO LIKELY AREAS OF
THIN ICE.

REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY CAUSE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVY MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 220959
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
459 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL MOISTURE STARVED
DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE NEW WEEK. THE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
AND SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY COLDER NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCH OF MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN WELL-CHANNELLED FLOW IS ADVANCING
IN FROM NRN OH. HOWEVER...THE LIFT CAUSED BY THIS FEATURE IS
EXTREMELY WEAK. THE MOISTURE IS AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-FEB.
THE LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS MOVING ALONG VERY QUICKLY AND THE SIGN
OF ADVECTION SHOULD FLIP AROUND NOON AND THE THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD SCOOT TO THE EAST. THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A 20-30 POP OF -SHSN THIS
MORNING IN THE NW...AND JUST A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN IN THE NRN MTS. EVEN THAT MAY BE OVERDONE WITH THE SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS...AND TEMPS RISING RAPIDLY THRU THE DAY TO
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. BUT CONTINUITY AND NOD TO THE SREF
POPS/QPF KEEP IT IN THE FCST. WINDS MAY STILL GUST INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NRN TIER AND WRN HIGHLANDS TODAY. BUT...THE WORRY FOR A
WIND ADVY IS LOW.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER VERY FAST-MOVING WAVE MOVES IN EARLY TONIGHT...FOLLOWING
THE SAME PATH AS THE PREV STREAK. THIS ONE SEEMS MORE LIKE A REAL
FRONT...BUT ALOFT. THERE IS A LOWERED PRESSURE/TROUGH AT THE SFC
DOWN OVER THE OHIO RIVER. BUT THE LIGHT AND MOSTLY-FROZEN
OVERNIGHT PRECIP REMAINS 100-200 SM TO THE NORTH. THE 8H TEMP
ISOPLETHS DO BUCKLE NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY
AS THE STREAK MOVES BY. PRECIP IS MORE-PRONOUNCED ON THE SREF AND
GFS SOLNS THAN THE NAM. BUT THE DIFFERENCES ARE VERY MINOR. THE
TEMPS AT NIGHT AND THE ANTICIPATED FORCING IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT
WITH PRIOR PROGS AND FCST. SO...WILL BUMP POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATG FOR THE NW MTS FOR TONIGHT. BUT THE WAVE PASSES QUICKLY...AND
SUPPORT OTHER THAN THE UPSLOPE OF THE MTS WANES QUICKLY. SUNDAY
COULD HOLD LIGHT/MIXED PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EVEN IN THE
SRN TIER LATE...BUT MORE THAN 30 POPS NOT ADVISABLE IN SUCH A
WEAKLY FORCED EVENT. ANY MEASURABLE ACCUMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE WRN MTS. AN INCH OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE THERE. THE REST OF THE AREA COULD SEE A DUSTING...BUT
TEMPS ARE MARGINAL IN THE CENTRAL MTS/POCONOS AND MILD OVER THE
LOWER SUSQ.

TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S IN THE S...BUT HOLD
IN THE M30S N AFTER A SUB-FREEZING START TO THE DAY. THE PASSAGE
OF THAT WAVE/TROUGH ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE FIRST ATTEMPT - OF
MANY TO COME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS - BY THE ATMOSPHERE TO PULL THE
COLDER AIR BACK IN. THE MILD TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MELT THE SNOW PACK
AND KEEP THE WATERWAYS HIGH...BUT NOT NEAR FLOOD ANYWHERE. THE ICE
ON THE WATERWAYS WILL ALSO BE MELTING SOME...AND THE POSSIBILITY
FOR ICE JAMS DOES EXIST. BUT THE WATER LEVELS ARE LOW ENOUGH ON
THE BIG RIVERS/CREEKS TO MAKE WORRY FOR FLOODING LOW ON THEM. IT
WILL BE THE SMALL STREAMS WHICH WOULD HAVE THE HIGHER THREAT FOR
ICE JAMS. THE THREAT IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH NOR WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR ANY KIND OF FLOOD WATCH.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE LONG-TERM...AS A RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE FAR WESTERN UNITED STATES...ALLOWING
COLDER AIR TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES.

A SERIES OF REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE REGION
IN THE LONG-TERM...THE FIRST OF WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GEFS
DROPS 850 TEMPS TO -1SD ON MONDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A SECOND SYSTEM COULD SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE REGION
TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...AS CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND
DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS IS LOW AT THIS RANGE.

THE 12Z GEFS SHOWS 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO -2SD FOR THU AND FRI...SO
IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD END TO NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE.

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS OF 09Z. EARLIER
FOG CONCERNS AT KLNS HAVE DIMINISHED...AS DWPT DEPRESSION NOW AT
8F AND 08Z MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWS NO FOG IN THE VICINITY.
MAIN AVAITION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE LLWS. A CORE OF STRONG
WINDS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LGT WINDS AT THE SFC...WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO LLWS CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING...ESP THE W MTNS.

MDL DATA SUPPORTS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS FOR
THE REST OF TODAY. DIURNAL HEATING WILL BREAK UP THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION BY LATE MORNING...ENDING THE THREAT OF LLWS BUT ALLOWING
GUSTY WSW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SFC DURING THE AFTN. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO ARND 25KTS ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
30-35KTS ACROSS THE W MTNS.

OCNL LIGHT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW MTNS
/KBFD/ TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONT STALLING OVER THE
AIRSPACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...AM LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED...AM LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...ESP SOUTH.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
HYDROLOGY...

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 210954
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
454 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

MAIN POINTS THROUGH TODAY...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER THAT. STRONG W-SW WINDS BEHIND THE SFC
LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE STRONG SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY JUST SW OF IRON MOUNTAIN AND AT
LEAST 976MB DEEP...WHICH IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVATION WITH THE
SYSTEM AT IMT. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE KEWEENAW BY 12Z
TODAY WHILE DEEPENING SOME...TO FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z TODAY
AND INTO ONTARIO BY 00Z SAT.

MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS NOW OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND W OF
UPPER MI WHERE THE TROWAL FEATURE IS LOCATED. MOSTLY SEEING MODERATE
SNOW OVER WRN UPPER MI...WITH BLOWING SNOW LEADING TO REDUCED VIS
FROM ELY WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30MPH. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
UPPER MI HAS MAINLY SEEN LIGHT SNOW...BUT LOWER TERRAIN AREAS AND
MUCH OF ERN UPPER MI HAS SEEN MIXED PRECIP IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. AT THIS TIME...THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP IN THE CWA IS SNOW AND ALL PRECIP SHOULD
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHORTLY AS WARMER MID LEVEL AIRMASS EXITS TO THE
E AND DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE SYSTEM.

EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH SOME OVER WRN AND ERN UPPER MI TODAY WHILE
CENTRAL UPPER MI SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE END OF THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE DISCUSSED IN THE WSW. WINDS NEAR THE
NRN BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SFC LOW PASSES AND
A PRESSURE RISE CENTER MOVES INTO CENTRAL WI. EXPECT WINDS FROM NEAR
GARDEN CORNER TO THE E TO GUST UP TO 55MPH TODAY...AND GIVEN LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP AND LIMITED BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL /DUE TO
THE SNOW PACK GETTING WARM OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND MIXED
PRECIP LAST NIGHT/ TODAY DECIDED TO CONVERT WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. ELSEWHERE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND E...CONVERTED WINTER STORM WARNINGS TO WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES GIVEN LIMITED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TODAY BUT
STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING. KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WARNINGS AND BLIZZARD WARNING OVER WRN UPPER MI THE SAME...BUT
LONG TERM FORECASTER DID EXTEND THE BLIZZARD. THE BLIZZARD STILL
LOOKS GOOD AS E WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 25 MPH COMBINED LIGHT
SNOW IS REDUCING VIS TO 1/4SM AT TIMES...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE W BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 50MPH EXPECTED. WITH
CONTINUED SNOWFALL AND INCREASING WLY WINDS...BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE AROUND 975MB LIFTS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR TOWARD
JAMES BAY BY 12Z SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
DIMINISH FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA. DID EXTEND BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THOUGH AS FREQUENT GUSTS REMAIN OVER 40 MPH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW FROM THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL BE DIMINSIHING...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND -16C TO LEAD TO WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MODIS
IMAGE FROM THURSDAY AFTN SHOWED SOME GAPS IN THE ICE OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND EXPECT MORE OPEN WATER TO DEVELOP WITH THE STRONG WEST
WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP BY BKN CLOUD COVER
WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

PERSISTENT FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE SPINS VICINITY OF OVER HUDSON BAY AND JAMES BAY. WINDS IN
THE MIXED LAYER STAY FROM THE WEST. SOUNDINGS FOR AREAS FAVORED BY
WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT INDICATE INVERSION HEIGHTS UP TO 5KFT AND
THIS REALLY DOES NOT CHANGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INVERSION
DOES LOWER SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN INCREASES AGAIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AS PUSH OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN BLO -20C.
NOT MUCH IN WAY OF SUPPLEMENTAL MOISTURE ADD TO THE LAKE EFFECT
THOUGH SO EVEN THOUGH CONVERGENT WEST WINDS MAY BE HIGHER...LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT OPEN WATER AND ENHANCING MOISTURE/FORCING SHOULD
KEEP IT IN CHECK. GIVEN THE WNW-W WINDS MAIN AREAS THAT WILL SEE
LAKE EFFECT ARE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN /WHITE PINE TO ROCKLAND AND TWIN LAKES/ AND ALSO THE SNOW
BELTS OF EASTERN CWA TO THE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS. AS IT IS TO START
THE WEEKEND...MAIN ISSUE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE POOR VSBY AT
TIMES DURING GUSTY WINDS. ALSO WITH TIME...DGZ BECOMES LESS A FACTOR
SO SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SMALLER WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO REDUCE VSBY.
DO NOT FORSEE HAVING TO EXTEND THE BLIZZARD WARNING ANY MORE BEYOND
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MIGHT NEED AN ADVY FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE
LOWER VSBY AND IF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPAND WITH THE OPENINGS
IN THE ICE COVER. TOUGH TO SAY EXACTLY HOW THAT PLAYS OUT RIGHT NOW.
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS DURING THE
DAY...AND POSSIBLY BLO ZERO AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WI BORDER
AWAY FM LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.

APPEARS WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT IS ONGOING SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PERSIST
INTO MONDAY FOR WNW AND MAYBE EVEN NW FLOW AREAS. CONTINUE TO DRAG
THE CHANCY POPS INTO MORE OF THE NORTHERN U.P. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AGAIN...LARGER SCALE NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF THE LAKE EFFECT
SO AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. WINDS ALSO START TO COME
DOWN REDUCING THE BLSN HAZARD.

CORE OF COLDEST AIR DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HINTS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF DISTURBANCE SLIDING
THROUGH IN ADVANCE OF STRONG COLD FRONT. H85 TEMPS FALL OFF BLO -30C
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONLY SLOWLY MODERATING BY FRIDAY. STRONGER NW
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ISSUES NEXT THURSDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE BLO ZERO IN MANY AREAS OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

DEEPENING SFC LO WL TRACK THRU WCENTRAL UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO LK SUP AFT 12Z FRI AND THEN INTO ONTARIO LATE
TDAY AND TNGT. THE HEAVIEST SN WL CONT AT CMX/IWD TO THE W OF THE
SFC LO TRACK THRU MUCH OF THE MRNG...SO EXPECT IFR/LIFR TO OCNL
VLIFR CONDITIONS AT THOSE LOCATIONS. ONCE THE SFC LO PASSES TO THE N
OF THOSE LOCATIONS...VERY GUSTY NW BACKING W WINDS WL OCCUR AT IWD
AND CMX. ALTHOUGH THE SN WL TEND TO DIMINISH WITH TIME...THE BLSN
ACCOMPANYING WIND GUSTS AS HI AS 40 KTS AT CMX WL RESULT IN VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT THAT SITE THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD. SINCE SAW WL BE
TO THE E SIDE OF THE SFC LO TRACK...DRYING ALF WL RESULT IN LIGHTER
PCPN. BUT LINGERING LLVL MSTR WL STILL SUPPORT PREDOMINANT IFR
CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST MID MRNG. AFTER THAT TIME...DVLPG GUSTY...
DOWNSLOPE WSW FLOW WL BRING PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS WITH VERY LTL VSBY
RESTRICTION THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM WEST CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING EASTERLY GALES TO 35-45KTS OVER MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CENTER CROSSES THE LAKE...THEN
BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST GALES AT 35-45 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW WILL MOVE OVER JAMES BAY SATURDAY MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES TO
35 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ002-009-084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ004>007-010>012-085.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ013-014.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ244>248-264>267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ249>251.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ162-
240>243-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248-250.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221.

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 202247
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
147 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE WELL WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY IN THE NEAR TERM. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE
BUILDING BLOCKING HIGH THAT SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. THEY ARE NOT DOING SO WELL WITH THE SHORTWAVES THAT MOVES UP
THE WESTERN FACE OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...505 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA
WILL CONTINUE TO NORTHEAST AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY DRAG OUT OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO
BUILD NORTH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY WITH A 537 DAM HIGH OVER
SIBERIA NEAR 66N 162E MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE
FRIDAY...THEN MERGING WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. A CLOSED HIGH WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY
SET UP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY WITH A 558 DAM CENTER. A
518 DAM LOW CENTER 600NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE OVER ATKA ISLAND
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY
SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE EAST. A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT...TO NUNIVAK
ISLAND BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST.

SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ALASKA
RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY THEN ANCHOR OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR INTO
NEXT WEEK. LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO ATKA ISLAND BY
FRIDAY MORNING AT 974MB...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT STRENGTHENS TO 964MB...MOVING TO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING AT 970MB. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY MORNING...TO ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE LOWER YUKON DELTA BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO DRAG UP THE COAST INTO SATURDAY AS IT
STALLS ALONG THE COAST FROM POINT HOPE EXTENDING SOUTH AS THE LOW
MOVES OVER CHUKOTKA. A WEAK LEESIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY AS CHINOOK FLOW DEVELOPS...STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN RANGE.

ARCTIC COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. BIG PATCH OF
STRATUS THAT WAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS YESTERDAY...THAT WAS
SHOWING UP ON THE NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT SHOWS UP WELL AGAIN
TODAY...HAS MOVED SOUTH TO THE COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTH TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRATUS
BUT A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. THE STRATUS WILL MOVE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND WILL HELP MODERATE THE
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT...SO EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS. 850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW WARM UP FOR THE
AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND THE
COMMUNITIES.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT. NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION IT TO
START OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGE TO MIXED RAIN AND SNOW BY LATE
SATURDAY SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH
FRIDAY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE GALE FORCE WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE SNOW WILL CREATE NEAR WINTER STORM
CONDITIONS...SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
Z211...Z212...Z213 AND Z214. A BAND OF STRATUS AND FOG SEEN IN THE
NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT IS ERODING...BUT CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
BERING STRAIT COAST AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH STRATUS AND
FLURRIES. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS IT MOVE TO THE WEST
OUT OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. GEOCAT MODIS SHOWS SOME
IFR AND LIFR BUT IT IS OFFSHORE AROUND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND WILL
NOT IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA.

INTERIOR...PATCHES OF STRATUS FLOATING AROUND UNDER THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN ON THE NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT. EXPECT IT
TO CONTINUE TO FLOAT AROUND AS IT SLOWLY ERODES. THE GEOCAT MODIS
IMAGERY SHOWS NO AREAS OF LIFR OR IFR IN THE INTERIOR. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
FOR MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT COOLING AND DAYTIME WARMING. CHINOOK FLOW
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS
NEAR PASSES BUT NOT TO WARNING LEVELS.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

SDB FEB 14

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 200936
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
436 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SLIDE EAST AND MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE
A STRONG COLD FRONT RACES EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH EARLY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING COLDER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE VALLEY FOG AND
STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWEST PA...THE RESULT OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WIND UNDER HIGH PRES SYSTEM. LAMP AND RAP DATA BOTH INDICATE AREAS
OF FOG WILL LIFT BTWN 12Z-14Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON BAND OF SHRA
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING THIS DEVELOPING BAND
OF RAIN ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA...WHERE NOSE OF LL JET INTERSECTS
RETREATING 8H BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALL NEAR TERM MDL DATA TIMES THIS
FEATURE THRU CENTRAL PA BTWN 17Z-23Z. ENSEMBLE MFLUX VALUES AND
QPF PROBS SUPPORT NEAR 100 PCT CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER CHC OF SHOWERS FURTHER SE.

EARLY SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER
TODAY. HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY...COMBINED
WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WEST OF RETREATING HIGH PRES SHOULD
PUSH READINGS INTO THE 40S BY AFTN.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A STRONG MID-LVL TROUGH ENTERING THE PLAINS STATES THIS AM IS
FCST TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES THE UPPER GRT LKS
AND MS/OH VLYS TNGT. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL
BE THE SHARP/TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE CROSSING THE
APPLCHNS AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE A FOCUS FOR
A THIN LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WHICH COULD REACH THE WRN
ALLEGHENIES EARLY FRI MORNING.

SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS PLACE THE AREA IN GENERAL RISK...AND
MENTIONED THIS POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOPPED SQUALL LINE WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN HWO ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS /AS VERY
POTENT LLJET DEVELOPS/. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT
HVY RAIN POTNL/FLOOD THREAT...HOWEVER ICE JAM EFFECTS COULD BE A
CONCERN. ATTM DO NOT ANTICIPATE RAPID SNOW-MELT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS ON FRI...PRECIP WILL PUSH EASTWARD
AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION. GFS/ECMWF NOW IN
QUITE GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES AS THIS SYSTEM
EVOLVES...WITH PRECIP ENDING BY LUNCHTIME FRI.

AFTER THAT...BROAD TROUGH BECOMES MORE AND MORE ENTRENCHED ACROSS
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF U.S. THROUGH NEXT MIDWEEK...GIVING US A SLOW
AND STEADY RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THAT MAY BRING LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SNOW. OTHERWISE...NO BIG SYSTEMS THROUGH TUE AS
PERSISTENT NW FLOW CONTINUES WHILE HUDSON BAY LOW GRADUALLY
DEEPENS AND PUSHES COLDER AIR FURTHER SOUTHWARD. SNOWFLAKES WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

NOTABLE WAVE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE TROUGH NEXT MIDWEEK...AND
LONG RANGE MODELS /BOTH ECMWF AND GFS/ BEGINNING TO HINT AT
POTENTIAL LOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST. BUT THAT
REMAINS A LONG WAY OFF FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS THE SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...WARMING TREND LATE THIS
WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED...SO MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE WILL
REMAIN GRADUAL...WHICH SHOULD KEEP POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS LOW.

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WIND UNDERNEATH HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
CONDS FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY RADIATION FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON 06Z DWPT DEPRESSIONS...KBFD APPEARS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO A
PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS EARLY THIS AM. HOWEVER...THICKENING CIRRUS
APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN OHIO COMPLICATES MATTERS AND COULD
MITIGATE THE FOG THREAT. ELSEWHERE...SREF AND OPER MDL SFC RH
FIELDS SUGGEST A DIMINISHING WIND COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FOG ARND KMDT/KLNS ARND 12Z.

ANY PATCHY FOG SHOULD LIFT BTWN 12Z-14Z...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. A BAND OF SHRA ASSOC WITH A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT
THRU THE AREA DURING THE AFTN...AFFECTING MAINLY NW PA WHERE MVFR
REDUCTIONS ARE LIKELY AT KBFD.

A STRONG CORE OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO LLWS CRITERIA...ESP ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD MVFR /POSS IFR/ CIGS
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A SURGE OF MOISTURE WORKING
INTO THE STATE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...WINDY. AM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS.

SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KCHS 200933
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
433 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...STALLING JUST OFFSHORE
UNTIL STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN STREAMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THIS MORNING.
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION
AND LAYERED LOW CLOUDS WERE BLOSSOMING INTO SW GEORGIA. THE HIGH
CLOUDS APPEARED TO BE KEEPING WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL FOG AT BAY
THIS MORNING WITH BEST SETUP FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY TO THE S OF
I-16. THE HIGH CLOUDS WERE SHIELDING US FROM ACCESSING BREADTH OF
MARINE STRATUS AND FOG ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING BUT SOME
OF THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS S OF CHARLESTON COULD SEE
SPORADIC DENSE SEA FOG DEVELOPING. LATEST COASTAL OBSERVATIONS
HAVE INDICATED STEADILY RISING SURFACE DEW POINTS ALONG COASTAL
BEAUFORT AND CHATHAM COUNTIES.

TODAY...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL AND THUS A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. MODELS INDICATE COPIOUS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
200-400 MB LAYER WILL SHIFT NORTH TODAY AND PROVIDE THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS INLAND FROM THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS. GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND THE MODEL FORECAST TREND FOR THINNING
HIGH CLOUD COVER WE SHOW TEMPS SOARING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S
INLAND AREAS. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING DEW POINTS...
WEATHER ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE DICTATED BY THE AMOUNT OF
MARINE STRATUS AND FOG OVER COOLER SHELF WATERS AND A SENSITIVE
ADVECTION ENVIRONMENT EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH EXTREMELY TIGHT
TEMP GRADIENT EXPECTED GIVEN THE CHILLY WATER TEMPS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL VSBY AND CIG PROGS ARE VERY ERRATIC THIS MORNING
AND HAVE OPTED TO MENTION SOME FOG AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT
UNTIL WE CAN GET SOME MORNING VISUALS ON SATELLITE WITH LESS
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE AND DAYTIME WEB CAMS...NO DENSE FOG MENTIONS
IN THE COASTAL ZONES JUST YET.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE LIKELY WILL BE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING IN A STRENGTHENING MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN IN THE LOW
LEVELS. SEVERAL MODELS DO BREAK OUT A FEW SHOWERS AT THE NOSE OF
THE 850 MB THETA-E MAXIMA AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95 CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ANY PRE-DAWN SHOWER POTENTIAL IS
LIKELY TO BE SPOTTY AND BRIEF GIVEN LARGE CONDENSATION PRES
DEFICITS FORECAST PRIOR TO 12Z. WE RAISED LOW TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. MANY AREAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
60 DEGREES. FOG POTENTIAL LOOKS TRICKY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET LIKELY
TO BOUNCE STRATUS CIGS AROUND..ESPECIALLY LATE. AT THIS POINT...WE
ONLY MENTION PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL BUT COULD CERTAIN IMAGINE THAT
FOG MAY BE DENSE IN PARTS OF SE GEORGIA FOR PARTS OF THE NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY PLACE A STRONG COLD
FRONT JUST ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK...THEN RAPIDLY SHIFT THE FEATURE TOWARD THE COASTLINE BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL HAVE
SURGED TO 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH STRONG UPPER
FORCING AND A DECENT TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT AN ONGOING
LINE OF CONVECTION TO STEADILY PUSH INTO THE AREA. HAVE RAISED
RAIN CHANCES INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE...PEAKING AROUND NOON TO 1
PM EST. HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO RAISE POPS EVEN HIGHER WITH CONTINUED MODEL CONSISTENCY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING FRONTAL FORCING
OFFSHORE.

THE MAIN CONCERN ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION
TO BE ORGANIZED AND/OR SEVERE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 60S INLAND...WHERE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL OFFSET
DIURNAL WARMING TRENDS EARLIEST. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA COULD REACH THE LOWER 70S...AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEN IN DEWPOINT VALUES OF THE LOWER 60S...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHT DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A NARROW WINDOW
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...MODELS SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATE AN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...THE CORE OF STRONG JETTING APPEARS
DISPLACED JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH...WITH THE 40 TO 50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION ONCE THE FRONT
ACTUALLY PRESSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO ADDS SOME UNCERTAINTY
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...AS A DELAY OF JUST A FEW HOURS INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DESTABILIZATION AND
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION A
CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
FRIDAY...YET PREFER TO HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS IN CASE CONDITIONS DO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
STALL JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE ZONES ON SATURDAY AS THE FEATURE
RUNS INTO ATLANTIC RIDGING. THE BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL STRETCH BACK TOWARD THE FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COASTLINE...AND HAVE THUS HELD ON TO A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOR THESE GEORGIA COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL JUST INLAND...THUS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
60S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT UNDER INCREASING INSULATING CLOUD COVER...RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKING BETWEEN A DAMPENED
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND FLAT RIDGING OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. THE BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NORTHWARD
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THESE WAVES...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOLID SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN...AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FAR TO THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE PATTERN THEN BECOMES
COMPLEX BY TUESDAY...WITH NUMERICAL MODELS SOLUTIONS STILL SHOWING
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONT/WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. EVENTUALLY MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE WAVE WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE EARLY WEDNESDAY...RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
FARTHER INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND TRACKS OF SURFACE
FEATURES...PREFER TO CAP RAIN CHANCES AT SLIGHT CHANCE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL ADVERTISE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY
THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV
THROUGH MID MORNING TO 06Z FRIDAY BUT KSAV RECENTLY REPORTING SOME
FOG AT 09Z. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...AS HIGHER DEW
POINTS ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...RELUCTANT TO
SHOW ANY REDUCTIONS BELOW VFR LEVELS AT EITHER TERMINAL GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR LOWER CIGS
FROM THE PROXIMITY OF SEA FOG TO DRIFT INTO THE TERMINALS LATE BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY INCLUSIONS AT THIS TIME.

GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH ARE LIKELY TO RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS
BY 17Z TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR IFR CONDITIONS FROM STRATUS
CIGS MOVING ONSHORE OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING. WE
MENTIONED ON SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT TO MID
MORNING FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
WITH FOG. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.MARINE...
MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IMAGERY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED
THE 50-53 DEGREE READINGS OUT 20 NM FROM BOTH THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WHILE MID 60S 40-60 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND WARM
EDDY NEAR 70 AROUND BUOY 41004. MARINE STABILITY PLAYS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AS WELL AS AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG
AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY PLUS LOWER WIND GUST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT OVER COOLEST SHELF WATERS. WE ISSUED MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES OVERNIGHT FROM AROUND THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE
SOUTH. WE HAVE SEEN FOG ON WEB CAMS AND NOTED VSBYS AT KSSI HAVE
BEEN BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES AS WELL. THERE IS EXCELLENT POTENTIAL FOR
FOG TO MAKE IT UP INTO THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. UNTIL TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED...WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON EXPANDING ANY FOG ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH FOR NOW.

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS LATER TONIGHT BUT GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
DECENT SEA SURFACE STABILITY...WE HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA MENTIONS
FOR NOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST LATE BUT STRONGEST FLOW WILL BE OVER WARMER WATERS. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS EXPECTED TONIGHT...3-4 FT NEAR SHORE AND
4-6 FT WELL OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEA FOG WILL LIKELY BE LINGERING IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY ONSHORE...THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS INTO THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINTS DECREASING IN ITS WAKE.
THIS DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
LOSS OF THE IDEAL FETCH OFF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS...SUGGESTS FOG
WILL DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY LATE FRIDAY.

A BRIEF SURGE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND A 30 TO 40 KT
LOW LEVEL JET RAPIDLY LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. A BRIEF WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE LINGERING FRONT
OFFSHORE.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMP TODAY AT CHARLESTON IS 82 SET IN 1991 AND 84 AT
SAVANNAH...ALSO SET IN 1991.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ352-354.

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...WMS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 190316
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
916 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2014

.UPDATE...CALM WINDS AND TEMPORARY CLEARING HAS ALLOWED KSBM TO
PLUMMET TO 20F THIS EVENING. AS WINDS AND CLOUDS INCREASE BEHIND
WEAK TROUGH...TEMPS SHOULD BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. ALSO REPORTING
DENSE FOG AT KSBM BUT WEBCAMS SHOW IT IS VERY LOCALIZED. HENCE
WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALONG WITH CLOUDS...WL HOLD
OFF ON FOG MENTION.

DESPITE ONLY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ENHANCED FORCING FROM LEFT EXIT
REGION OF UPPER JET PRODUCING SMALL AREA OF -RA OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
MN/IA BORDER AREA. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST SO BROUGHT A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES INTO THE
WEST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. IF DBZ AREA HOLDS
TOGETHER WL BUMP UP TO ISOLD -SHSN/-SHRA MENTION IN NEXT HOUR OR
SO.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOWER VFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

.MARINE...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH ALLOWED WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HENCE CANCELLED SMALL CRAFT ADVY EARLY.

CONCERN INCREASES IN REGARDS TO STRONG LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT. EXTREMELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
GETTING CLOSE TO STORM FORCE /48 KNOTS/FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z/FRI.

HI RES MODIS IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF ICE
REDEVELOPMENT/THICKENING OVER NEARSHORE WATERS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

OVERALL...QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED. QUICK MOVING SFC TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SAID SFC TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVERHEAD BY 00Z WED. MSLP
PRESSURE RISES BEGIN SOON AFTER IN THE MID/LATE EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR SOUTH AND BY
18Z IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER E MO/SW IL...AND WILL
CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SFC WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE IN WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE TROUGH
MOVES IN THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS AND RH
MODEL LAYERS SHOW DECENT SATURATION...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 700-500
HPA. SO INCREASING CLOUDINESS LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK/SHORTLY THEREAFTER. FLURRIES MAY
BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
LOW-LEVELS...DON\T ANTICIPATE ANYTHING REACHING THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE...QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING AS WARM OF
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS WE SAW TODAY GIVEN 925 HPA
TEMPERATURES...THOUGH INSOLATION WILL BE DECENT. HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE UPPER 30S THOUGH FEW READINGS MAY REACH AROUND 40 F.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WED NT WITH CYCLOGENESIS OVER THAT REGION. THE UPPER WAVE
WILL THEN LIFT NEWD WITH STRONG DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NNEWD ACROSS
IL AND ERN WI. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN FROM 993 MB TO NEARLY 970 MB AS
IT OCCLUDES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG WSWLY WIND GUSTS OF
40-50 MPH...POSSIBLY HIGHER...WILL LIKELY RESULT THU NT AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH OF SRN WI.

THE INITIAL ROUND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING
PCPN INTO FAR SRN WI LATE WED NT INTO THU AM. SFC TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND FREEZING AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM. FROST HOWEVER IS DEEP IN
THE GROUND AND FREEZING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. THUS
SOME ICING IS EXPECTED THU AM. AS THE LOW AND STRONG UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FOR THE AFTERNOON...MDT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH ANY
ICING OVER WITH. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER THE FAR
WRN CWA WHERE TEMPS ARE COLDER ALOFT. THE DRY SLOT WILL ARRIVE BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW VIA
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAY THEN OCCUR THU NT. THE LIGHT SNOW WITH
40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS WOULD CERTAINLY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSSIBLY NEEDED.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ON FRIDAY BUT A CLIPPER LOW WILL
PASS FROM IA INTO IL THROUGH FRI NT. THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW MAY
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW FRI NT.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE OCCLUDED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN ONTARIO CANADA
MAINTAINING NWLY WINDS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW MON NT AND TUE.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. GIVEN RH PROFILES AND PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE
INCREASING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NO
PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE
IA AND AS IT PUSHES EAST WILL SEE WINDS AT TAF SITES DECREASE.
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST POTENTIAL OF NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON. THOUGH REMOVED LLWS AT KMSN...LLWS STILL PRESENT IN THE
OTHER THREE TAF SITES GIVEN SUPPORT...BASED OFF PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
AND LOW-LEVEL HI-RES WIND FIELDS.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
04Z WED/10 PM CST TONIGHT. VIS SAT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD ICE
STILL IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AND VEER FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES AWAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KTS TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE STATE...WINDS WILL
BEGIN SHIFTING FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MBK
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...99
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...99

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 150334
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
934 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2014

.UPDATE...WEAK WIND SHIFT JUST TO THE NORTH OF SHEBOYGAN AND FOND
DU LAC WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO BRING A PERIOD OF
SCT-BKN CLOUDS TO FAR EASTERN AREAS. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW REMAINS
PREDOMINANTLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST SO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES IF THAT...
EXPECTED IN THE FAR EAST. KGRB VCP-31 SHOWING WEAK RETURNS NOW
SAGGING INTO SHEBOYGAN COUNTY.

AS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST INTO SRN WI
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS DECOUPLE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET SO
WL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FAR EAST.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...IN GENERAL A VFR PERIOD UNTIL LATER
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING WHEN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT
TAF SITES. WEAK WIND SHIFT MOVING DOWN LAKESHORE AREA OVERNIGHT
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS TO ERN TAF SITES THROUGH 09Z OR SO.

.MARINE...HI RES VISIBLE MODIS IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWS
THE THICKER ICE THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS HAS
AT LEAST PARTIALLY MELTED DUE TO THE STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER STILL LIKELY TO
BE SOME LINGERING THIN ICE WITH COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
CAUSE SOME ICE REFORMATION. HENCE WL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY HIGHER
WAVE HEIGHTS FOR NOW.

WEAK WIND SHIFT ABOUT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NEAR SHORE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH FOR A
TIME OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SURFACE/850 TROUGH LOSES INFLUENCE IN ERN WI WITH SURFACE HIGH
GRADUALLY TAKING HOLD. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO SC WI BY
12Z. 925 TEMPS DROP INTO THE -11 TO -15C RANGE. LOWS IN MANY
LOCALES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

UNEVENTFUL MORNING WITH LINGERING INFLUENCE OF ANTICYCLONIC
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE/850 RIDGING. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AS SURFACE/850
TROUGH APPROACHES SRN WI. 500 MILLIBAR DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION INCREASES INTO SW WI DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AXIS OF 250 MILLIBAR JET CORE WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST THOUGH SOME
HINTS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTH. MODELS
AGREE ON SPREADING SNOW INTO MUCH OF THE SW 1/2 OF THE CWA. 925
TEMPS MODIFY TO -9 TO -11C. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A SMIDGE COOLER
THAN THE 925 TECHNIQUE WITH FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING AND INCREASING
CLOUDS. SO UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S LOOK MORE LIKELY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

A 1010 MB SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
IA AT 00Z SUN WILL WEAKEN AND TRACK TO THE WRN PORTION OF THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUN. THE LGT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH
OF THE EVENING AND DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE FROM THE LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS FOR SAT AND SAT NT WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 1/2 INCH OVER EAST CENTRAL WI TO NEARLY 2 INCHES
SW OF MADISON. SOME CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT OR TOWARD SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF SRN WI. A SFC RIDGE AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO PREVAIL ON SUNDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY OR EVENING.

FOR SUN NT...AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SET TO TRACK FROM
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH THAT IS ALREADY PRESENT.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM MO TO NRN IN WITH THE
STENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM CENTRAL IL TO NEAR
LAKE ERIE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PHASED WITH ANOTHER MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND NRN GRTLKS DURING THIS PERIOD.
IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION INCLUDING AT THE JET LEVEL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REGION WHILE THE MOST FOCUSED FRONTOGENESIS AND HIGHER
QPF REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF WI. MOSTLY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED WITH A
CHANCE OF SLEET IN FAR SRN WI. GENERAL SNOW ACCUMS AT THIS TIME
RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES. IF GREATER DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW CAN
OCCUR...THEN HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. CONVERSELY...IF THE
GFS IS MORE CORRECT ON KEEPING THE SHORTWAVE MORE NWD AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...THEN LESS SNOW WOULD OCCUR.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

ZONAL FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE MONDAY SYSTEM AND THEN TRANSITION TO
SWLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WRN USA. SWLY
WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S FOR TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 30S WITH SOME 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TUE NT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO QUICKLY FOLLOW...BUT SLY WINDS WILL RETURN FOR WED
AFT.

CYCLOGENESIS...POSSIBLY STRONG...IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE WRN
USA UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG DEEPENING LOW TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO NRN WI ON THU. SOME MIXED PCPN MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN WED NT BUT RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINANT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 50S FOR THU. QUIET WX
WITHIN A COL FOR FRI.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
DAKOTAS. QUIET AND VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH SURFACE/850 RIDGING
DOMINATING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING SNOW TO
OUR WEST THROUGH 18Z. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SC WI EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW ARRIVING INTO SE WI LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SNOW WILL WRAP UP BY 6Z OR SO. LOOKS LIKE AROUND AN INCH
IN THE EAST WITH UP TO 2 INCHES SW OF KMSN.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 141342
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
442 AM AKST FRI FEB 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...AT 500 HPA THEY REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH 78 HOURS OR SO AS
A LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA PINBALLS AROUND. AT THE SURFACE THEY
ARE SIMILAR THROUGH AROUND 60 HOURS AS LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA SLOWLY DEEPENS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 483 DAM CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER KODIAK WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH BACK OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY THEN
BECOME QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. A RIDGE UP THE WEST COAST
WILL PUSH OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STRENGTHEN
THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. AT 850 HPA...COLD AIR IS BEING MIXED
OUT BY THE WARM AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW IN THE GULF. MODELS DO
CONTINUE TO SHOW A POOL OF COLD OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS THAT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...977 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA REMAINS
QUASI STATIONARY AS IT DEEPENS TO 968 MB SATURDAY MORNING NEAR
CORDOVA. BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE HANGS AROUND
INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY
TO THE ARCTIC COAST...GRADIENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL STRENGTHEN
TODAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH OVER THE
BROOKS RANGE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES MOVING IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW BRING BANDS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE
INTERIOR. A BAND WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND TO
OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME
OF THAT ENERGY WORKING UP INTO THE KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS AND
OUT TO THE WEST COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE ARCTIC. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED THOUGH A FEW
FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA. 0755Z MODIS 11UM SHOWS A
PATCH OF STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE ARCTIC
COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED BUT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WILL
DEVELOP WEST OF DEADHORSE TODAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WIND CHILL
FALLING TO AROUND 55 BELOW...SO WILL ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR THOSE
AREAS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...COLD TEMPERATURES HANGING ON
OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MODERATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. NOT MUCH FOR
CLOUDS AS EASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
LOOKING FOR INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY WITH SOME SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE YUKON
VALLEY...KOBUK VALLEY...AND NOATAK VALLEY AT THIS TIME.

INTERIOR...WITH THE LOW OVER THE GULF SWINGING BANDS OF MOISTURE
NORTH EXPECT SNOW TO DE3VELOP OVER ZONE 226 THIS EVENING WORKING
NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR SATURDAY MORNING AND TO THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR BY SATURDAY EVENING. GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR TODAY WITH WINDS OVER SUMMITS BLOWING AROUND 25
MPH WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS. THE BAND OF STRONGER WINDS WILL
MIGRATE NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
THE COLD IS REINFORCED NEXT WEEK.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-
AKZ227.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ206-AKZ218.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

SDB FEB 14

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXHW60 PHFO 112002
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1002 AM HST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARBY WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT
WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE ISLANDS...AND
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT VOG. THE RIDGE WILL RESTRENGTHEN
FRIDAY NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...ALLOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES TO
BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AND TURN SOUTHEAST.

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE UNDERNEATH THE INFLUENCE OF A NEARBY
COL...OR WEAKNESS IN BOTH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL KEEP THE BACKGROUND FLOW LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY. THE LATEST MODIS TPW IMAGE SHOWS
A GRADIENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...AND INCREASING MOISTURE TOWARD KAUAI. THE
WEAK FLOW AND ABUNDANT AM SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON CLOUDS
AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE 12Z PHLI SOUNDING
PW OF 1.79 INCHES WAS INFLUENCED BY RAIN AND IS NOT CONSIDERED
REPRESENTATIVE...AS THE GPS-MET SENSOR AT PHNL IS SHOWING ABOUT
1.1 INCH OF PW WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODIS. ALSO...AMDAR
DATA IS SHOWING A QUASI-ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 800-900 MB SO
ANY SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD NOT BE TOO HEFTY.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT VERY SLOWLY N OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING THE ISLANDS IN A WEAK FLOW REGIME.
EXPECTING A CYCLE OF NIGHTTIME CLEARING WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND
HIT OR MISS SHOWERS...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
COOLER AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT DEEPER.

ON FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH N AND
STRENGTHENED ENOUGH TO RETURN LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW
OVER THE STATE. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WEST END OF THE
STATE...THE TRADES WILL BE ON THE WETTER SIDE FOR KAUAI AND OAHU...
LESS SO AS YOU HEAD TOWARD MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THIS SHOULD
DEFINITIVELY CLEAR THE VOG AWAY FROM THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING CYCLOGENESIS 500-600 MILES WEST
OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND NEAR 21N170W. THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO
FAR AWAY TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. MODERATE TRADES ON
SATURDAY WILL SHIFT TO ESE ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN...WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INTERIOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE
WESTERN ISLANDS AGAIN SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...
VFR COND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS HAWAII TODAY. SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
OVER THE ISLANDS WILL RESULT IN CLOUD BUILDUPS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLEARING OUT TONIGHT. ISOL MTN OBSC AND MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR
WITH THE CLOUD BUILD UPS OVER ISLAND INTERIORS.

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CRITERIA
UNTIL AT LEAST FRI. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE STRENGTHENING
TRADES COULD BE ENOUGH TO RETURN SCA WINDS TO SOME SPOTS ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY NEAR KAUAI...BUT THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS.

A SERIES OF SMALL TO MODERATE N AND NW SWELLS THIS WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SURF ADVISORY LEVELS. A RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED FETCH
OF LOW-END GALE FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO SEND A SLIGHTLY LARGER BUMP TO OUR N SHORES ON FRI.

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE...R BALLARD
AVIATION...FOSTER

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 092057
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

LAKE SUPERIOR IS MAINLY ICE COVERED...SEE THE LATEST FALSE COLOR
MODIS IMAGE. THE MAIN HOLES ARE OVER THE FAR W...ALONG THE COAST OF
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...E OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. STILL THERE HAVE
BEEN ENOUGH LIGHT WINDS TURNING TO A MOSTLY WNW DIRECTION TODAY TO
CAUSE SOME CONVERGENCE WITH THE ADDED AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE LOOK TO
THE SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER. FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME PICKING UP ON THE COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS...AND HAVE TO RELY HEAVILY ON THE GFS/ECMWF FOR AREAL
COVERAGE WITH SIGNIFICANT EDITING TO ALIGN MORE WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION WIND FIELDS. THIS HAS NOT WORKED OUT TOO WELL
TODAY...AS N WINDS REMAINED MOST OF THE DAY OVER N CENTRAL UPPER
MI...KEEPING THE FOCUS FOR LIGHT SNOW FROM BIG BAY THROUGH MARQUETTE
AND W ALGER COUNTY. AN ESTIMATED 2IN HAS ALREADY BEEN CALLED IN FROM
MARQUETTE...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE RADAR ESTIMATE WITH A 18:1
SLR. HAVE ALREADY SEEN LESS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OF ADDITIONAL LES
OVER FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND
OVERALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
IS UPSTREAM...WITH THE NEXT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER S MANITOBA AND
ONTARIO. IT HAS BROUGHT HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS TO KCDD AND SW
ONTARIO. LOOK FOR THIS TO PUSH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN MORE OUT OF THE NW AS WELL...LEADING US TO
WONDER HOW MUCH LES CAN BE PRODUCED OFF THE BREAKS NEAR ISLE ROYALE.
WILL KEEP MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW...AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT EXPECTING
MORE THAN AN INCH OVERNIGHT IN THESE LOCATIONS. COLDER AIR PUSHING
INTO THE AREA /850MB TEMPS FALLING AROUND 2C/ WILL HELP WITH
LES...AND CLOUDS. STILL...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO W AND CENTRAL INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 8MPH...WIND CHILL READINGS ONLY BOTTOM OUT AT
-25 FOR A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE
ISSUANCE OF A COUNTY-WIDE SPS OR WIND CHILL ADVISORY. EXPECT WINDS
TO TURN MORE OUT OF THE WNW AGAIN MONDAY...WITH LES CONTINUING IN
THE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS. ONCE AGAIN...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

AFTER STARTING THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER A COLD NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH...IT/S DEPARTURE ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WARMER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH COLD 850MB TEMPS (-24C) UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ON
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE OPEN WATER. BUT MODIS SATELLITE FROM
TODAY SHOWS THAT THOSE AREAS ARE VERY LIMITED...BUT THERE WERE
STILL PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OVER THE LAST DAY.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW PREVIOUS SHIFTS OF SLIGHT AND CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR PRESENT...ALONG WITH LIMITED
OPEN WATER...DON/T THINK SNOW WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH...UNLESS SOME
WATER OPENS UP MORE THAN CURRENTLY SEEN. SINCE THERE WILL BE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE CWA (CURRENTLY BETWEEN
LAKE WINNIPEG AND HUDSON BAY)...WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MONDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDER DAYS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEST IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND MID-UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE
SURFACE RIDGE...FROM THE HIGH SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR...WARMING ALOFT...AND
WEAKENING/BACKING WINDS WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE SNOW CHANCES FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE
DRY RIDGE MOVING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE INLAND
TEMPERATURES REALLY FALL WERE SKIES CLEAR OUT. GOING FORECAST HAS
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER NEAR -20F AND THAT SEEMS
FAIRLY REASONABLE. DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THOSE VALUES...SINCE
SOME OF THE COLDER MODELS EVEN HAVE VALUES AROUND -24F AND BASED
OFF SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS IT DOESN/T SEEM
TOO UNREASONABLE. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD...IT WON/T TAKE MUCH
FOR WIND CHILLS TO NOSE INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT WITH WINDS
LOOKING TO BE WELL BELOW 10MPH...SHOULD NOT NEED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AND LEAD TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
START A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER...BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL...FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS ON THE WHERE THE PIECES OF ENERGY
TRACK...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR SOME ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY TO SWEEP THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA
FOR A WEST TO EAST PUSH OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE CWA.
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS ON
THURSDAY AND ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THIS
TIME...THE GFS/GEM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE
INTENSIFYING THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
TRACKING IT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND TRACKS A WEAKER LOW FARTHER
SOUTH AND SLOWER THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ALL IN ALL...IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE AREA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE TRADITIONAL FASTER
GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS USUALLY MERGING AND SPLITTING THE
DIFFERENCES...THINK THE AREA WILL POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCE NEAR
ADVISORY SNOWFALL AROUND THE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
WILL KEEP POPS AT THE CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE...MODELS SHOW A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND PRODUCE A DRY FRIDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

NW FLOW WILL LINGER AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHTLY MORE WNW PUSH OF WIND TOWARD IWD SHOULD ALLOW
MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDS TO PUSH N OF THE SITE WITH MVFR CEILINGS
REMAINING DOMINANT. CMX WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS AND
LOWER VIS WITH -SHSN AS SAW IS IN A MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME WITH
THIS WIND DIRECTION. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL STILL KEEP VFR TO
HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS OFF AND ON AT BOTH IWD AND SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS DUE TO THE WINDS
LINGERING AROUND 25KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD /EXCLUDING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...AND MAINLY DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE
ICE COVER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND SEABOARD TONIGHT...A HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SE. EXPECT A RIDGE TO SET UP ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN
HIGH SINKS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TUESDAY...AND EXITS ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES ON WEDNESDAY. S GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT NE TO S HUDSON BAY WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO MOVE FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GALES TO 35KTS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY OUT OF THE N/NNE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 090803
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
303 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014

STEADY MID CLOUDS ARE SW OF A LINE FROM JUST SW OF DLH TO GRB. THIS
LINE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER NE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HRS. WHILE ALL THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN S OF THE
CWA...ACROSS WI/LOWER MI...WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. EXPECT
LOW TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS
THANKS TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS. THE WEAK SFC TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL
SHIFT WILL SINK ACROSS THE E CWA AND LOWER BY BY 12Z
SUNDAY...ALLOWING INCREASED NW FLOW AND COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN
DURING THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM A CWA AVG OF -16C THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND -21C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AS WAS EVIDENT BY THE RADAR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT AND 1IN SNOWFALL
REPORTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR GRAND
MARAIS...EVEN WITH A MAINLY FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR THERE ARE STILL
ENOUGH OPEN AREAS AND OVERALL FLUXES TO CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN DOWNWIND LOCATIONS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE THE
FCST OF SLIGHT-CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE OUT OF THE NNW BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE W AREAS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014

EXPECT VFR CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES AS VARIABLE WINDS
SHIFT NW BTWN 08-14Z THIS MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN EXTENSIVE ICE COVERAGE...IT IS HARD TO FCST VSBY
LOWER THAN VFR AS NW WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG AND SHOULDN/T
CONTRIBUTE TO MUCH BLOWING SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014

GIVEN THE MAINLY FROZEN LAKE...FREEZING SPRAY IS BECOMING LESS OF A
CONCERN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
EXIT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...AS A STRONG HIGH SINKS
FROM ALBERTA TO THE N PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...AND EXIT ACROSS THE NE SEABOARD
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
MONDAY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE NEARING FROM THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 080839
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
339 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014

THE PERIOD OF GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH THAT STRETCHES NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC MOVED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE YESTERDAY EVENING AND
SHIFTED THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WIND DIRECTION...ALONG
WITH MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY SHOWING SOME GAPS IN THE ICE
NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...WAS
ENOUGH TO LEAD TO LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND STRETCHING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST ALGER AND NORTHERN
LUCE COUNTIES. THE UPTICK IN INTENSITY SEEN ON RADAR WAS FAIRLY
SHORT LIVED AND HAS BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST HOUR AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN
LAKE AND WITH LAND BREEZES OVER NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. CLEAR
SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE CWA...AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHES
NORTHWEST THROUGH WISCONSIN FROM A HIGH IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS BELOW ZERO RANGE...BUT LIGHT WINDS HAVE LIMITED THE
WIND CHILL READINGS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA
SHIFTS EAST TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
THE REST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE STAYING SOUTH OF
THE CWA (NEARLY BRUSHING THE CITY OF MENOMINEE) AND THE ONLY
INFLUENCE BEING HIGH CIRRUS SLIDING OVER THE CWA. THUS...MUCH OF THE
FORECAST POPS WILL DEPEND ON THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WHAT WILL
HAPPEN TO THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING.

GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL KEEPING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE THAT IS DUE TO IT HAVING
MUCH MORE OPEN WATER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY
OCCURRING. THUS...WILL STICK TOWARDS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWN
BY THE NAM/GEM-REG AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW WHICH ALL SHOW THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WANING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS. IN
ADDITION...THE WEAKENING TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE WEST (AND EVEN A LITTLE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON). THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
OVER ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA DUE TO THE FAVORED WIND
DIRECTION AND THE OPEN WATER NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA...BUT
DON/T THINK ACCUMULATIONS WILL AMOUNT AN MUCH.

ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH THIS EVENING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. MODELS
ARE ALSO SHOWING A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING WITH
THIS WAVE. WITH THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER...WON/T GO WITH MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH THE 850MB TEMPS OF -22C WOULD
SUPPORT GOOD INSTABILITY WHERE POCKETS OF OPEN WATER ARE PRESENT.

DID TREND HIGHS UP A LITTLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR
CENTRAL/WEST LOCATIONS SINCE THE INITIAL SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY
WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOWER ALBEDO OF THE FORESTS TO PRODUCE HIGHS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT (MID-UPPER TEENS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014

EXPECT RELATIVELY DRY...BUT COLD WX TO IMPACT UPR MI THRU AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF THIS COMING WEEK AS NW FLOW BTWN PERSISTENT VORTEX
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AND UPR RDG OVER THE W CONTINUES TO FUNNEL
CNDN AIR INTO THE UPR LKS OVER ICE COVERED LK SUP. BUT LONGER RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THIS BASIC WRN RDG/ERN TROF UPR PATTERN WILL WEAKEN
AND GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL REGIME TOWARD MID WEEK AND ALLOW SOME
MODERATION OF TEMPS AT LEAST CLOSER TO NORMAL. THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW
WL ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME LARGER SCALE SN EVENTS.

SUN THRU MON...LATEST MODELS RUN HINT THAT A PAIR OF SHRTWVS
EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW WL PASS THRU THE UPR MIDWEST/UPR LKS DURING THIS
TIME. THE MORE SGNFT OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS FCST TO IMPACT UPR MI
ON SUN...BUT TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THIS SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/MID LVL MOISTENING TO BE WEAKER. CONSIDERING THE
ABSENCE OF ANY MSTR INFLOW IN LLVL NW FLOW WITH FCST PWAT NO HIER
THAN 0.10-0.15 INCH...ABOUT 50 PCT OF NORMAL...WL TEND TO CUT BACK
POPS OVER THE INTERIOR. EVEN IN THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF LK SUP...
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER THE LK...RELATIVELY HI H925-85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS NEAR 3C AND ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL CYC FLOW WL LIMIT
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY SHSN EVEN WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENTLY COLD
H85 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -23C. ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV WL PASS LATE
SUN NGT/MON MRNG...BUT THE SAME LIMITS WL STILL BE IN PLAY. TEMPS WL
REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL. EVEN THOUGH SOME CLDS ON SUN NGT ASSOCIATED
WITH PASSING SHRTWVS MAY LIMIT THE DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP...TEMPS OVER
THE INTERIOR SHOULD STILL FALL WELL BLO ZERO. IF THE STRONGER WINDS
SHOWN BY THE GFS VERIFY...WIND SPEED THRESHOLDS/WIND CHILLS AT SOME
PLACES COULD AT LEAST APRCH ADVY LIMITS. BUT MORE ILL DEFINED
SHRTWVS INDICATE THE WEAKER WINDS FCST BY OTHER MODELS ARE PROBABLY
ON TRACK.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD TOWARD THE UPR LKS
UNDER RISING HGTS/DNVA...WITH SFC WINDS SLOWLY BACKING TO THE W BY
12Z TUE AND THEN TO SW ON TUE. ANY LES IN THE W WIND SNOW BELTS WL
BECOME CONFINED TO THE KEWEENAW ON TUE AND END LATER IN THE DAY AS
THE WINDS BACK SW. TEMPS COULD GET QUITE COLD MON NGT WITH PWAT
AROUND 0.1 INCH AND LIGHTER WINDS WITH APPROACH OF SFC RDG AXIS.
TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MON NGT MIN TEMPS...WITH
EXPECTATION THE MERCURY COULD DIP AS LO AS -20F NEAR THE WI BORDER.

EXTENDED...AS UPR FLOW TRENDS MORE ZONAL AT MID WEEK...MORE MODERATE
MARITIME POLAR AIR WL IMPACT UPR MI. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW WL BE ABLE TO TAP MORE MSTR AND BRING THE CHC OF MORE
WDSPRD SN. WAD IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST OF THESE SHRTWVS MAY CAUSE
SOME SN AS EARLY AS TUE NGT INTO WED AS H85 TEMPS RECOVER TO -5 TO
-10C. BUT THE TRACK OF THE SHRTWV TO THE N THRU ONTARIO INDICATES
PCPN SHOULD BE NOT TOO GREAT. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY REACH THE
AREA LATER ON WED/THU...BUT THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BTWN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. SOME LES MAY FOLLOW WITH
THE RETURN OF SOME COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE ON FRI...BUT THAT AIRMASS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT THE AREA HAS
EXPERIENCED RECENTLY. THE VERY LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS TEMPS MAY
ACTUALLY RECOVER TO ABV NORMAL THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH FALLING PRES
IN CANADA SUPPORTING A STRONGER ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014

UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KSAW
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AT KCMX...MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS/-SHSN. SOME LARGER OPENINGS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE ICE
COVER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS DEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN WATER AREAS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT CIGS HOVERING AROUND 3000 TO 3500FT AND PERHAPS
SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING AT KCMX. CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING MID TO LATE MORNING
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND BACK A LITTLE. LIGHT WINDS MAY VEER AGAIN
THIS EVENING...BRINGING A HIGH MVFR CIG AND A FEW FLURRIES TO KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014

A WEAK TROUGH MOVED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND LED
TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS AT TIMES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LAKE. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND ALLOW
WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 15KTS BY EVENING. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A
STRONG HIGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE MOVES OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 25KTS. FINALLY...WITH MUCH OF THE LAKE
ICE COVERED...THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY CONCERNS WITH HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KLOT 080840
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
240 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...
856 PM CST

NO BIG CHANGES THIS EVENING...MAINLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL
STRATUS CONTINUING TO EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SEVERAL LARGE SCALE
FEATURES APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IT DOES APPEAR AS A SMALLER
IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
EAST THROUGH MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. WAA OUT
AHEAD OF IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH MOST GUIDANCE DEVELOPING
SNOW OUT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.
ALTHOUGH THIS AREA OF SNOW SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA...DO THINK IT HAS A CHANCE TO CLIP THE SOUTHERN CWA MORE
TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. SO HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
SATURDAY MORNINGS POP GRID...BRINGING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT SNOW. ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING WERE SOME MINOR
CHANGES TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT AS IT APPEARS AS IF LOW TEMPS MAY
HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED WITH EITHER A STEADY OR SLIGHT WARMING
TREND EXPECTED.

RODRIGUEZ

//PREV DISCUSSION...
313 PM CST

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL THE ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SUB ZERO LOWS IN MOST AREAS WILL BE THIS
EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY RISING BACK ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT THE FAST QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS EVOLVED. A
RATHER STOUT PV ANOMALY...CURRENTLY BEING EJECTED EASTWARD ACROSS
IDAHO...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE
MORNING...WITH SNOW LIKELY ONSETTING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY
MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AROUND MIDDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE QUIET IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 DEGREES C PER KM. THIS
COMBINED WITH GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING PV
ANOMALY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS EVEN
A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL BUFFER SOUNDINGS
ALSO INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A VERY DEEP DGZ...POSSIBLY 200 MB
DEEP AT TIMES...DURING THE PERIOD OF BEST SNOWFALL. WITH THIS IN
MIND...I WENT WITH A 16 TO 18 TO 1 RATIO FOR THE SNOW TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...AND THIS SHOULD YIELD 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP AROUND 4 INCHES GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW.

AREAS ACROSS MY SOUTHERN CWA...SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE AND ILLINOIS
RIVERS...LOOK TO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...POSSIBLY ONLY AN INCH OR TWO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS
THAT AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA. IT
APPEARS THAT MY SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE BETTER FAVORED FOR THE SECOND
ROUND OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND HENCE THE BETTER AREAS OF
FGEN. IN ADDITION...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE AREAS WILL
ALSO BE WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS...I HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...THOUGH
AREAS NORTH COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES DURING THIS
PERIOD. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH OF MY AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...WITH THE
END OF THE SNOW...WILL COME MORE COLD. A COLDER AIR MASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AGAIN LATER SUNDAY AS A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SETUP
SUB ZERO LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS COULD EVEN BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO AGAIN IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH POSSIBLY
MOVING RIGHT OVERHEAD.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT...THERE IS SOME LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL. IT
APPEARS THAT WE MAY SEE AT LEAST A FEW DAYS WITH NO NEW SNOWFALL.
MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW SETS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND
SPEED OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK...WE COULD GET
TEMPERATURES TO POSSIBLY CRACK THE FREEZING MARK IN SOME AREAS BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW AS THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK
OF THE CONTINUED SMALLER SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES LIKELY
TO EJECT OUT OF THE ACTIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

KJB

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* A PERIOD OF SNOW/IFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

RATZER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

VFR OVERCAST WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM MID-LEVEL TO 4000-5000 FT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW THEN
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITIES QUICKLY
DETERIORATING TO IFR. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES BY EARLY EVENING AS INITIAL DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...THOUGH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN SOME FASHION WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AT LEAST INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT AS A SECOND MID-
LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACH. SOME
INDICATION IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND SOME
FOG MAY LINGER/DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AT THIS TIME. WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BRING A
SHIFT FROM LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO NORTHWEST DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MORE SOLID IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO
MVFR LIKELY ALONG WITH RAPIDLY DIMINISHING SNOW POTENTIAL.

RATZER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TIMING/INTENSITY...AND MVFR CIG/VIS
DETAILS SATURDAY NIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

RATZER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.

IZZI

.MARINE...
240 AM CST

WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND REACHES THE WESTERN LAKES AS
AN ELONGATED LOW/TROUGH THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE LAKE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS WHICH HAD DIMINISHED
AND BACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER A BIT WITH HOW QUICKLY COLDER AIR
SPREADS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH SUNDAY...AND THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SPRAWLING AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.

WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES MODEL WIND SPEEDS...HAVE GENERALLY USED
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR TIMING...WHICH BRINGS NORTHWEST
WINDS UP INTO THE 15-25 KT RANGE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE LAKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 25 KT EAST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS THE RIDGE DRAWS NEAR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

FOR OUR ILLINOIS/INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS...BEAUTIFUL MODIS POLAR
ORBITER SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE LAST TWO SUNNY DAYS INDICATES
MUCH OF THE INDIANA WATERS ARE SOLIDLY ICE-COVERED...WHILE THICKER
ICE HAD PUSHED EAST OFF THE ILLINOIS SHORE WITH THE STRONGER WEST
WINDS OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...WEB CAMS SUGGEST THAT OUR
SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS HAVE ALLOWED AT LEAST SOME ICE TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE AND THUS WILL OMIT WAVE HEIGHTS IN
THE NEARSHORE FORECAST AS LIKELY LITTLE WAVE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN LARGE
AMOUNT OF ICE.

RATZER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 072136
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 PM CST FRI FEB 7 2014

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER THIS
EVENING...COMBINING WITH THE CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
FAIRLY QUICKLY. HOW FAR TEMPS FALL DEPENDS ON HOW LONG THE CLOUDS
STAY AWAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR BELOW ZERO TEMPS ACROSS
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LIGHTER
WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY MAINLY STAY ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR SATURDAY. A
DECENT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH PRETTY GOOD
SATURATION AND DECENT LIFT VIA SOME WARM ADVECTION AND Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. MODELS NOT PAINTING OUT A LOT OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT EXPECTING A PRETTY EFFICIENT SNOW MAKER
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE FROM
THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 12 KFT. THICKNESS VALUES AND TEMPS SUGGEST
LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS OF ABOUT 25 TO 1...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE 30 TO 1 GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DENDRITE GROWTH
ZONE. OVERALL...EXPECTING AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH AND
A HALF IN THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...TO ABOUT TWO AND HALF
INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST. SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE MID TO LATE
MORNING...EXITING LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL PROBABLY
SEE SNOW COVERED ROADS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL STILL BE HANGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AT THE START OF THE EVENING WITH SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
LINGERING OVER THE EAST. MOISTURE IS STILL PREVALENT...SO WILL
KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING ACROSS THE EAST HALF AT THE START OF THE
EVENING...BUT DIMINISHING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...MORE
WELL BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE HEADED OUR WAY...ON THE ORDER OF -2 TO
-15 MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. ADD THE WIND AND WE/LL SEE WIND
CHILLS OF 15 TO 25 BELOW...SO MORE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE DRY UNDER THE HIGH...SO WE HAVE THAT...

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

BETTER NEWS AS HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 20S. THE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE EAST WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FINALLY GETTING IN HERE.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 20S...AND
UPPER 20S FOR THURSDAY. THE PATTERN LOOKS A BIT MORE UNSETTLED
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A WEAK LOOKING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION...SO A CHANCE FOR SNOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED. THE SNOW EVENT FOR SATURDAY IS STILL ON
TRACK...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES...PARTICULARY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR
WHEN THE SNOW ARRIVES.

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL EARLY EVENING...WHEN WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY
SHOWS NEARSHORE WATERS PRETTY MUCH COVERED IN ICE...WITH A SMALL
GAP OF WATER POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHORE AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
PUSH THE ICE A BIT OFFSHORE. BASICALLY...LITTLE TO NO WAVES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 070936
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

PATCHY MID-CLOUDS FROM WEAK SHEAR ZONE AND LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE SHOULD DECREASE AND PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. HENCE STILL TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL 5 DEGREES
OR SO. WIND CHILLS SO FAR OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
15 AND 25 BELOW MOST LOCATIONS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. HENCE WL CONTINUE ONGOING WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND WARMER START SHOULD ALLOW
AFTERNOON READINGS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES OVER THURSDAY TMAX.
CLOUDS SLOWER TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT DUE TO SLOWER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
FALL OFF TO BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS. WENT LOWER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS MAY LOWER TO 20 TO
25 BELOW LATE TONIGHT IN SOME NORTHERN AREAS WITH WINDS AROUND 4-
5KTS.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SYSTEM AND SNOW TO THE SOUTH. CROSS
SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP AND SATURATED DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE...BUT WEAK OMEGA WITHIN THE ZONE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT...REFLECTED IN THE LOW LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MAX OVER IL...PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. THE STRONGEST
OMEGA...ON THE ORDER OF 8 TO 10 MICROBARS/SEC...IS ABOVE THE DGZ
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DCVA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

EVEN THE NAM...WITH THE MOST GENEROUS QPF ONLY ABLE TO GENERATE A
SNOWFALL MAX OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA
...WITH 1 INCH IN THE FAR NORTH. USING A CONSENSUS/WPC BLEND YIELDS
1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
1.5 TO 2.2 ACROSS THE SRN HALF.

NOT ONLY A LATER START TO SNOW SATURDAY BUT A LATER END SO WILL KEEP
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR EAST FOR THE EARLY EVENING...THEN TAPER
OFF RAPIDLY BY 06Z WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WAVE. A BIT OF A NON-
DIURNAL TREND WITH TEMPS WARMING A DEGREE OR TWO BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z
THEN FALLING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE...WITH A FEW SPOTS GOING BELOW ZERO BY 12Z SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

GFS LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH AMOUNT OF COLD AIR FOR SUNDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE
DAY. WILL OPT FOR BLENDED TEMPERATURES THAT ALLOW HIGHS OF 15 TO
NEAR 20...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME CONTINUES AS BROAD ARCTIC HIGH
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT BACKING OF
THE UPPER FLOW TO THE WNW. LOWS FALLING INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURE MODERATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING A BIT
MORE ZONAL...WITH 850/925MB TEMPS RISING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE NRN STATES.

THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE IS A RELATIVELY PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM INDICATING NO
SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN THE BLENDED SOLUTION KEEPING
WEDNESDAY DRY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL WI LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE KMSN MAY EXPERIENCE 1-2 HOUR
PERIOD. FARTHER SOUTH...EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHEAR ZONE TO EXIT SOUTHEAST WI EARLY THIS MRNG. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WITH CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBY
LOWERING AT KMKE LATER SAT MRNG DUE TO APPROACHING -SN.

.MARINE...

WILL EXPAND ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVY TO INCLUDE ENTIRE NEARSHORE
WATERS. ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY TO ALLOW
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH THE MID-LATE AFTN.
HI RES MODIS IMAGERY FROM THURSDAY SHOWED WIDESPREAD THICKER ICE
JUST OFFSHORE. LIKELY THIS ICE HAD BEEN BLOWN OFFSHORE DUE TO THE
WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT AREAS OF THINNER ICE
LIKELY TO REMAIN OR REFORM TOWARDS SHORE DUE TO THE COLD
TEMPERATURES. HENCE STILL EXPECT ICE TO LIMIT WAVE ACTION AND
FREEZING SPRAY THREAT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-
051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...REM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 060929
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CST THU FEB 6 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

CORE OF COLDEST AIR SETTLING INTO SOUTHERN WI ATTM. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR SURGE CAUSING INCREASING STRATUS FIELD
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES...PER LATEST 11-
3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. TRAJECTORY TAKES THIS STRATUS FIELD OVER
MILWAUKEE METRO AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT STRATUS TO THIN AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS COLD AIR SETTLES INTO SOUTHERN WI
AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FROM MID-LEVEL SHEAR ZONE ALSO SHIFTS OFF
TO THE EAST. HENCE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

SUBSIDENCE FROM LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL ALSO HELP
RETARD CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THIS SCENARIO ALSO SUPPORTED
BY DECREASING TOTAL COLUMN CONDENSATE.

CLEAR SKIES SHOULD THEN REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR TONIGHT...HOWEVER
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER DUE TO EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH AND RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

WL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI
WITH MANY WIND CHILLS FALLING TO BELOW 20 BELOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TONIGHT...COLDER START AND LACK OF
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO FALL TO BETWEEN 3 AND 10 BELOW.
THESE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS
TO FALL TO 20 TO 30 BELOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND WILL BE ISSUED ONCE ONGOING WIND
CHILL EXPIRES.

.FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE BY TO THE
SOUTH FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT HIGHS STILL ONLY
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP BACK
BELOW ZERO AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING...BUT WARM BACK TO AROUND
ZERO BY LATE IN THE NIGHT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

.SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

POPS WERE RAISED A BIT FOR FOR SATURDAY...AS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW.
THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING...STRENGTH...AND FEATURE PLACEMENT
ISSUES AMONG MODELS...BUT THE OVERALL PICTURE SEEMS TO BE COMING
TOGETHER. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD...HIGH SNOW RATIO EVENT...WITH
AVERAGE MODEL LIQUID OF A TENTH OF AN INCH SUGGESTING ABOUT 2
INCHES OF SNOW.

.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY...LOOKS LIKE MORE
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION CAUSING PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THINS THROUGH THE DAY SO AFTER THIS MRNG...CONFIDENCE
INCREASES ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TNGT.

.MARINE...WL CONTINUE TO LIMIT WAVE FORECASTS DUE TO LIKELY AREAS OF
ICE LINGERING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. NOT SURE WHAT STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY MAY HAVE DONE TO THE ICE COVER BUT MORE
CLEARING TODAY SHOULD ALLOW UPDATED VIEW FROM NEW HI RES MODIS
IMAGERY. WEST WIND GUSTS WL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THIS AFTN AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTN AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-
056>058-062>064-067>070.

LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 040934
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
334 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

EXPECT THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS WEAK
ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM WEAK SHEAR
ZONE FROM WESTERN KS INTO IA. THIS WEAK FORCING CAUSING AREAS OF
-SN OVER IOWA. CROSS SECTIONS HAVE PERSISTENT DRIER AREA IN THE LOW
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT FEW FLURRIES MAY GET SHAKEN OUT OF
THE MID CLOUDS LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW PRODUCED BY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WATER
VAPOR CURRENTLY SHOWING WAVE OVER WEST TX. EXPECT THIS WAVE TO TAKE
NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS MO AND CENTRAL IL NEXT 24 HOURS. NAM REMAINS
OUTLIER IN ITS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK. HOWEVER IMPRESSIVE
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DOES PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
TONIGHT...FOCUSED ON FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FROM BOTH NAM AND GFS.
500-300MB LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TOUCHING 50 UNITS WHILE 10 TO
20 UNITS IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. IN ADDITION...MID-LAYER
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CROSSES FAR SOUTHEAST WI OVERNIGHT WITH DEEP
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HENCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS LAKE ENHANCEMENT. DELTA-T OVERNIGHT
INCREASES TO 15-16 DEGREES WITH INVERSION HEIGHT INCREASING TO
AROUND 4K FEET. WIND DIRECTION IN THE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER SLOWLY
BACKS OVERNIGHT BUT WL LINGER FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z RESULTING IN MODERATE OMEGA AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING OVER THE AREA...THINKING LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ADD SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM PARTS OF MILWAUKEE COUNTY TO EASTERN PARTS
OF KENOSHA AND RACINE COUNTIES. THIN ICE COVER MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT OPEN WATER STARTS AT ABOUT 10 MILES OFF SHORE
TO MID LAKE. WOULD THINK THIS WOULD CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON SNOWFALL
BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO HOIST WINTER WX ADVY FOR 3 TO
5 INCH SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS LATEST
MODELS SUGGEST BOTH SYNOPTIC SCALE AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE
ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. BEST CHANCE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE TO
A COUPLE TENTHS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL BE FOCUSED UNDER A MEAN NORTHEAST FLOW FROM 1000
TO 850 MB. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...CUTTING OFF THE LAKE SNOW. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE MAINLY EAST BY AFTERNOON AS
WELL...SO EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SLOWLY SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND LESS CLOUDS...BUT AT THE COST OF
COLDER TEMPS. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IF MODELS REMAIN THIS COLD...WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTING WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. HIGHS WILL THEN STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY...ONLY RECOVERING TO THE TEENS ON FRIDAY.

.SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN FORECAST FOR SAT/SUN BASED ON
THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRINGING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WITH A
SHORTWAVE. UNFORTUNATELY...LOOKS LIKE MORE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY. MAY GET A FEW FLURRIES
SHAKEN OUT OF THE THICKENING CLOUDS BUT EXPECT MAIN PERIOD OF SNOW
TO MOVE IN LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING. CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY TO FALL
TO LIFR LEVELS CLOSER TO LAKE MI WITH IFR FARTHER INLAND FOR A TIME.

.MARINE...

HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS IMAGERY FROM MONDAY SHOWED THIN ICE COVERING
ALMOST ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OUT BEYOND 5 NM...WITH THICKER
ICE 5 TO 10 MILES EAST OF MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO KENOSHA...EXTENDING TO
NORTHERN IL/IN NEARSHORE AREAS. WIDESPREAD ICE WILL LIMIT WAVE
ACTION AND RESULTANT FREEZING SPRAY.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
RESULT IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVY GOES INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING THRU WED AFTN. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THESE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS DO TO THE
WIDESPREAD ICE COVER OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ066-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 031943
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
243 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED WELL
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND A FEW
LOWER 20S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
HAS ICE COVERAGE...THERE IS ENOUGH OPEN WATER OVER THE EAST (EAST OF
A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO MICHIPICOTEN ISLAND) TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE CLOUDS IN THAT AREA. UPSTREAM...A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN SOUTHERN HUDSON
BAY) HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BOTH
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CLOUDS ARE MORE
SCATTERED AND HAVE EVEN SEEN SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING IN THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND ALSO FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH PUTTING OUT ANY
QPF...THINK MENTIONING FLURRIES SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBS IN MINNESOTA AND CANADA. HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTIONING THE
FLURRIES UNTIL THE LATTER PART OF THE EVENING AND CONTINUED INTO A
PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THE MODELS WERE SHOWING THE
BEST MOISTURE. SINCE THE ICE COVERAGE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE SOLID
OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AND WINDS DO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
TROUGH...THERE COULD BE SOME HEAT FLUXES OFF THE LAKE TO PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD AND FLURRY SUPPORT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT...AREA WILL COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY (FROM A STRONG HIGH OF 1054MB CENTERED IN THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES). SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN THE
INVERSION AROUND 875MB AND POTENTIALLY TRAP ANY LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS SEEM TO THINK THE
950-900MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TOMORROW AND SINCE THE COVERAGE IS LARGER BEHIND THE FRONT IN
CANADA...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA AT THIS POINT AND ALLOW THE UPCOMING
SHIFTS TO FINE TUNE AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS. SINCE THE CLOUD DEPTH
WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW...WILL LIMIT ANY SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TO THE
FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE
BLOWING OFF THE POCKET OF OPEN WATER IN THE EASTERN QUARTER OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. BASED OFF THE EXPECTED WIND DIRECTIONS IN THE 950-900MB
LAYER LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE SNOW CHANCES TO
SLIDE SOUTH INTO NE LUCE COUNTY TOMORROW MORNING AND POTENTIALLY
WEST TO THE GRAND MARAIS AREA. DID PUT SOME FLURRIES OVER WESTERN
ALGER COUNTY SINCE LATEST MODIS IMAGE SHOWS AN AREA OF OPEN WATER IN
THE NEARSHORE AREAS FROM THE HURON ISLANDS TO SHOT POINT. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR ENOUGH HEATING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST (A
40MI FETCH) WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE COMPLICATED WITH THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVAL AND HOW
LOW THEY REMAIN. IF SKIES STAY CLOUDY...EXPECT LOWS TO STAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE...WHILE IF CLEARING OCCURS IT WILL WILL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE (ALTHOUGH WITH A
TREND TOWARDS MORE CLOUDS) AND HAVE LOW AROUND ZERO. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. WITH
TODAY STAYING AT OR BELOW FREEZING...IT MARKS THE 60TH DAY IN A ROW
THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THAT...WHICH PUTS US AT 3RD IN THE ALL-TIME
LIST. WITH ONLY 12 MORE DAYS TO GO TO TIE...WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPS
NEXT WEEK TO SEE IF WE WILL BE ABLE TO APPROACH THE RECORD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014

BENIGN WEATHER PATTER IS EXPECTED FROM TUE THROUGH SUN AS FLOW IS
MOSTLY ZONAL AND EXTENT OF ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR LIMITS LES
COVERAGE/CHANCES.

REALLY...NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC ON PRECIP CHANCES IN ANY PART OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH JUST LOW 30 POPS BEING THE HIGHEST
POP IN THE LONG TERM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS. THU LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS W TO THE LOW TEENS E. MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME BLOW SNOW TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THU AND
FRI. W-WSW WINDS LOOK TO GUST TO AROUND 25KTS AT THAT TIME...AND
WITH ICE COVERING MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THE KEWEENAW IS ESPECIALLY
EXPOSED TO BLOWING SNOW. USED CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG
TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TO START THE PERIOD...BUT AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING
CEILINGS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE QUESTION IS HOW LOW THEY
WILL GO. LOOKING UPSTREAM IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...AND NORTH DAKOTA...MOST SITES ARE AT VFR WITH AN
OCCASIONAL HIGH END MVFR WITH A SNOW SHOWER. THUS...HAVE FOLLOWED
THAT IDEA FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION -SHSN FOR KIWD/KCMX DUE
TO THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. SINCE MUCH OF THE WESTERN LAKE IS ICE
COVERED...HELD OFF ON VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE LIMITED
INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON LAKE SUEPRIOR AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES EAST INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND WHEN A LOW MOVES THROUGH HUDSON BAY...COULD SEE WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 30KTS ON THURSDAY. WITH MUCH OF THE LAKE ICE
COVERED...SHOULDN/T BE MUCH CONCERN FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A
POCKET OF OPEN WATER NORTH AND EAST OF GRAND MARAIS MICHIGAN WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 282113
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS PERSISTENT PATTERN OF A
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST OF N AMERICA WITH A
BROAD DEEP TROF DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN NAMERICA. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN
THE AROUND -25C...LES CONTINUES OFF MAINLY NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH A W-WSW WIND FLOW WHERE VIS SATELLITE LOOP AND LATEST
MODIS IMAGE SHOWS THE GREATEST AREA OF OPEN WATER. MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE ICE-COVERED EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A
NARROW PORTION JUST WEST OF THE KEWEENAW ALTHOUGH WAA MID-HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM NORTH OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING
DOWN FM NRN ONTARIO MAKING IT HARDER TO DISCERN ICE COVERAGE OVER
WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH KCMX HAS
REPORTED OCCASIONAL VSBY OF 1/2SM OR LOWER...VSBY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE KEWEENAW BASED ON WEBCAMS. THUS...DECIDED TO CANCEL LAKE
EFFECT ADVISORY ON MORNING UPDATE. AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE RISEN UP TO
NEAR ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BLO ZERO AS NOTED ON LATEST SFC OBS. WIND
CHILLS AT KCMX ARE STILL SOLIDLY INTO ADVISORY CATEGORY (-30F OR
LOWER) WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA IS JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -25F
HEADING INTO THE EVENING HRS.

AS FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WILL KEEP
CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE WRN COUNTIES WHILE
ADDING BARAGA AND SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES...SO COUNTIES FROM BARAGA
AND IRON WESTWARD WILL BE IN ADVISORIES THROUGH 16Z WED. PORTIONS OF
WRN MQT COUNTY COULD REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT
BUT MOST OF THE COUNTY SHOULD STAY ABV -25F SO DECIDED AGAINST
HEADLINE THERE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...WIND CHILLS WILL LOWER
INTO THE -20F TO -25F RANGE OR JUST ABV ADVISORY CRITERIA.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT A BIG FALL
IN TEMPS TONIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SW CWA NEAR THE WI BDR WHERE LOWS COULD
APPROACH -12F IN A FEW SPOTS.

RELATIVELY WARMER AIR ARRIVING WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE IN
THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT MAY FEEL LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FROM THE RECENT BELOW ZERO HIGHS...NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF JANUARY
AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD
BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST AND WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SETUP WILL PLACE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN
CANADA...BUT OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF
SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

OUR STREAK OF DAYS AT OR BELOW FREEZING CONTINUES...WITH TODAY BEING
THE 54TH DAY IN A ROW. LOOKING AT LONG TERM ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA...NONE OF THE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND ONLY A RUN OR TWO NEAR DAY 15. THUS...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL WE WILL BE NEARING THE RECORD OF 72 DAYS (SET IN
1978-1979) WHEN WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE FIRST FEATURE OF NOTE FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
CLIPPER WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG AT 00Z THURSDAY AND
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO JAMES BAY BY 18Z THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...IT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT AND DEPART THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
FRONT (WHICH AFFECTS MUCH OF THE U.P.) WILL BE A LITTLE MOISTURE
STARVED AND WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...EXPECT THE QPF AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THEY NEAR EACH OTHER THERE COULD
BE AN INCREASE IN QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND EAST TOWARDS
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD ONLY BE A DUSTING
OVER THE WEST HALF...BUT IF THE INTENSITY INCREASES OVER THE EASTERN
CWA...AMOUNTS THERE COULD BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (MUCH OF THE
FORCING/CLOUD IN THE DGZ).

BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P.
AS A 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -16C. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW (ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ) BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6KFT. IN
ADDITION...WITH ICE COVER BUILDING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
CONFIDENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT THAT ACTUALLY OCCURS IS
UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY AND LOW
END DEFINITE POPS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS AND
SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT OFF SHORE FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW IN
THE PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. 12Z
ECMWF/GEM DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE GFS IS STARTING TO COME AROUND
TO IT. THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR
TO A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT
IDEA. THUS...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
AND WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE
SLIGHT POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE.

BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT IN THE WESTERLY WIND BELTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW...DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH ICE WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

VERY COLD AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KCMX...FAVORED BY WESTERLY WINDS.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT
INTENSITY OF -SHSN. WILL INCLUDE PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS AT 1SM FOR
VSBY WITH A TEMPO FOR 1/2SM THIS AFTERNOON FOR SHSN AND BLSN. WITH A
PASSING DISTURBANCE...WINDS MAY VEER SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...AND THIS
WILL BRING -SHSN/BLSN BACK TO KCMX THIS EVENING IF -SHSN DO IN FACT
END TODAY. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
DISTURBANCE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.

AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MIGHT BE A FEW FLURRIES
THIS EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP BLO VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS
ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OFF AND ON. EXPECT WSW GALES TO
40 KTS OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
AS WINDS AGAIN SHIFT TO THE W LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF
S GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE E.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>004-009-010-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263-
264.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-264.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 252040
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
340 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

A DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT MUCH COLDER AIR TO UPPER
MICHIGAN TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 0 DEGREES AND
ABOUT 5-18 DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT (RAP ANALYSIS OF 850MB TEMPS OF -27C) HAS
LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE IT IS ICE
FREE. MODIS IMAGE FROM THURSDAY/TODAY AND A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AROUND MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT SHOWS A
DECENT AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE ICE
MAINLY CONFINED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE APOSTLE ISLANDS TO THE TIP
OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR GENERALLY OPEN
OTHER THAN SOME ICE NEAR THE SHORELINES. SINCE MOST MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE WESTERN LAKE BEING COMPLETELY ICED OVER...IT IS WREAKING
HAVOC ON THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND LAKE EFFECT QPF OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA. OVER THE WEST...IT HAS COMPLETELY REMOVED LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION WHICH ISN/T THE CASE BASED OFF WHAT OCCURRED LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY. THUS...NOT SURE ABOUT THE USABILITY OF MOST MODEL
DATA FOR LAKE EFFECT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BACK TO THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OF 1013MB OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA IS
NOSING EAST AND ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THESE WEAKENING WINDS AND DRIER AIR AND LOWER INVERSION
HEIGHTS (3-4KFT ON 12Z KINL SOUNDING) HAS PRODUCED WEAKENING BANDS
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND IMPROVING VISIBILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEBCAMS. OVER THE EAST...WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING TO 20-35KTS AND WITH STRONGER MULTIBAND LES LOCATED FROM
MUNISING EASTWARD...SPOTTER/WEBCAMS INDICATE VISIBILITIES ARE STILL
POOR.

THE SURGE OF COLD AIR THAT MOVED INTO UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OUT OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH THE AXIS LOCATED
OVER FAR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z SUNDAY. FIRST FOR THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH SHOULD LEAD TO
STEADY DIMINISHMENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH IT
BEING LAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE EAST. THIS STEADY DIMINISHMENT SHOULD
KEEP ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM THE FINE FLAKES AND BLOWING
SNOW. THEREFORE...WITH THE WINDS STARTING TO COME DOWN OVER THE
WEST...WILL ALLOW THE LES ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 22Z AND HAVE THE
LES WARNING OVER THE EAST REMAIN UNTIL 6Z. WITH MODELS MISHANDLING
OF ICE OVER THE WESTERN LAKE...HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW MORE CLIMATOLOGY
FOR THE LES THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WINDS BACK.

NOW FOR THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INITIAL
WAVE MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS. THE STRONG/MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...TAKING A 998MB LOW FROM NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA AT 12Z SUNDAY TO NEAR THE MACKINAC STRAITS AT 00Z MONDAY.
THIS WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -20C
SUNDAY...DON/T THINK THERE WILL MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE 850MB TROUGH. THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL BE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THEN TOWARDS EVENING OVER
THE WEST AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE FAVORABLE PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE EAST WILL BE
SHORT LIVED (3-6HRS) AND MAINLY AFFECT FAR SOUTHEST SCHOOLCRAFT AND
SOUTHERN LUCE COUNTIES. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.11IN AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT
IDEA. WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE CLOUD AND FORCING WELL
ABOVE THE DGZ (GENERALLY FROM -25 TO -30C) THINK THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE FINER FLAKES AND LOWER SNOW RATIOS TOMORROW.
COBB OUTPUT FROM ALL OF THE MODELS HOVER AROUND 13-1 VALUES AND
THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS END UP AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE
FINE FLAKES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

STRONG RIDGE CURRENTLY ALONG THE W COAST OF NAMERICA (POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF +3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
THIS MORNING) WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 7-10
DAYS AT LEAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
FLUCTUATION IN STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF RIDGE AXIS AND GREATEST
POSITIVE ANOMALY...BUT OVERALL THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.
DOWNSTREAM...A TROF WILL DOMINATE CNTRL AND ERN NAMERICA...RESULTING
IN SOLIDLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS HERE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND BEYOND.
GREATEST HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE RIDGE AND TROF WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT 3-4 DAYS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A PERIOD OF BITTER COLD
WEATHER THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AS FOR PCPN...
PATTERN IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD -SN. THE FIRST ONE OCCURS SUN/SUN NIGHT AT THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLDEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AND
A SECOND ONE WILL AFFECT THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU. WITH THE COLD...LES
WILL BE THE RULE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...
ICE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LES SINCE IT WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND/THICKEN ON LAKE SUPERIOR. FREQUENT PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AREAS OF OPEN WATER ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
WHICH HAS CONSIDERABLE ICE COVER NOW. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT IR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST 24HRS MAY HAVE OPENED
UP A LARGE AREA OF OPEN WATER ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TODAY. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH THE VERY COLD AIR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RAPID ICE
GROWTH WILL CONTINUE TO BATTLE WINDS. WOULD EXPECT THAT OVER TIME
OPEN WATER AREAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SMALLER AND CONFINED TO
THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE LAKE ALONG THE MN NORTH SHORE AS ICE PILES UP
DOWNWIND. AS USUAL...ICE COVERAGE ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE
SLOWER TO EXPAND SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRONG WINDS THAT WILL BE OCCURRING ON A REGULAR BASIS. IN THE
END...WHILE LES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN
UPPER MI...IT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE COLD PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE MAY
NOT YET BE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN LES INTO NE UPPER MI. IN FACT
WITH THE OPEN WATER AREA BECOMING MORE OVAL SHAPED...IT MAY TEND TO
SUPPORT STRONGER DOMINANT LES BANDS...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS SEEN OFF
LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE WHEN WINDS ARE ALIGNED WITH THE LONG AXIS OF
THOSE LAKES.

BEGINNING SUN...ATTENTION WILL BE ON POTENT SHORTWAVE SWINGING FROM
THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WAVE ORIGINATES FROM THE
HIGH ARCTIC AND IS CURRENTLY OVER VICTORIA ISLAND IN THE CANADIAN
ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO. WEAKER SHORTWAVE JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE
WILL SPREAD -SN ACROSS WI/NRN IL/NRN IN INTO LWR MI IN THE MORNING.
NRN FRINGE OF THAT -SN WILL LIKELY BRUSH THE COUNTIES BORDERING WI.
THE POTENT MAIN WAVE WILL THEN SWING INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
DAY. 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE AROUND 150M...AND MODELS INDICATE
VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH AXIS OF CORE FORCING PASSING
SQUARELY ACROSS UPPER MI SUN. IF ANYTHING...MODELS HAVE TRENDED EVEN
STRONGER WITH THE FORCING OVER THE LAST 24HRS OF RUNS. LACK OF
MOISTURE IS A BIG NEGATIVE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS IS LOW SNOW TO
WATER RATIOS WITH DGZ NEAR THE SFC. MIXING RATIOS IN THE 700-750MB
LAYER ARE ONLY 0.5 TO 1G/KG. EXPECT A GENERAL 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL
SUN...THOUGH GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF FORCING...WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED
IF THERE IS A LITTLE MORE. AS WINDS BECOME NRLY AS SHORTWAVE
PASSES...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR SUN EVENING. HOWEVER...ONE OF THE IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF THIS
SYSTEM IS WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE OPEN WATER OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH
GOOD OPEN WATER COVERAGE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN LAKE
MI...THE STRONG FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WAVE SUN SHOULD TRIGGER A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOSCALE RESPONSE OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATER...ESPECIALLY SINCE LAKE TO 850MB DELTA-T WILL BE 20+ C. HIGH
RES MODELS ALL SHOW MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THAT
DROPS S TOWARD ALGER COUNTY. THUS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF HVY SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW INLAND...PROBABLY NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM THE BLIZZARD EVENT THAT HAPPENED ON THE KEWEENAW WITH
A MESOLOW A FEW DAYS AGO. PREFER THE LOOK OF THE 4KM HIRES NAM
WINDOW AND LOCAL REGIONAL WRF THAT SHOW 950MB WINDS UP TO 45KT OVER
SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND.
GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED THE MAIN IMPACT TOWARD ALGER COUNTY
AND AWAY FROM MARQUETTE COUNTY. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IN A VERY
HIGH IMPACT SNOW/BLSN EVENT IS SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A BLIZZARD
WATCH FOR ALGER COUNTY FOR SUN NIGHT. WILL CARRY WATCH INTO MON
MORNING...THOUGH WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE SUN NIGHT.

BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE...EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE
AREA SUN NIGHT/MON. CONSENSUS IS FOR 850MB TEMPS IN THE -27 TO -32C
RANGE BY MON MORNING. MON MORNING TEMPS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 0 TO
-5F OVER THE E TO -15 TO -20F OVER THE W. COMBINED WITH BRISK
WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE DRIVEN DOWN TO -35 TO -45F OVER MUCH OF
W AND CNTRL UPPER MI. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR MON AS THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR PASSES. AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS...HIGH TEMPS
MON MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR...EVEN COLDER THAN THE
EARLY JAN ARCTIC BLAST AS INCREASED ICE COVER COMPARED TO EARLY JAN
WILL LIMIT MODERATION FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPS OVER MUCH OF WRN UPPER MI MAY NOT MAKE
IT ABOVE -10F MON. AS A RESULT...WIND CHILLS WON'T MODERATE MUCH
THRU THE DAY. DOWNWIND OF STILL MOSTLY WIDE OPEN ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...TEMPS OVER ERN UPPER MI WILL HOVER AROUND 0F MON.
GROWING ICE COVER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT SNOW
INTENSITY/COVERAGE INTO WRN UPPER MI. TO THE E...THE EXTREMELY COLD
AIR WILL STILL ELIMINATE THE DGZ DESPITE LARGER OPEN WATER
AREA/MODERATION. SO...THE AIR WILL BE FILLED WITH TINY SNOWFLAKES
THAT ARE HIGHLY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS...BUT PRODUCE MOSTLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BRISK WINDS LEADING TO BLSN
WILL LIKELY CAUSE WHITEOUTS AT TIMES.

CORE OF THE COLD AIR SHIFTS E MON NIGHT/TUE...BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ON THE BRISK SIDE...KEEPING WIND CHILLS MOSTLY IN THE -30 TO
-45F RANGE INTO TUE MORNING. THE EXPANSIVE NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIR
SUGGESTS SFC TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO RESPOND EVEN AS 850MB TEMPS
MODERATE. OVER THE W HALF...TEMPS TUE WILL LIKELY STILL NOT BREAK 0F
AT MANY LOCATIONS. LES/BLSN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SNOWBELTS FAVORED
BY WNW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY HAVE
SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER BY THIS TIME...SO LES MAY STRUGGLE.

SLOW MODERATION CONTINUES WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT
OF NRN CANADA. SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD -SN WED NIGHT
INTO EARLY THU. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS WINDS MAY BACK
SUFFICIENTLY TO PROVIDE YET ANOTHER LAKE ENHANCED SNOW/BLSN EVENT
FOR ERN UPPER MI DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WED NIGHT. WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND LES OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL FOLLOW THU...BUT THE AIR MASS WON'T BE NEARLY AS COLD
AS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND ALSO THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO
PASS BY TO THE N. SOME LES MAY LINGER THRU FRI UNDER WESTERLY WINDS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

COLD AIR SURGING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIGHT...THE FINE FLAKES HAVE BEEN
EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 20-30MPH...VISIBILITIES HAVE FREQUENTLY BEEN REDUCED
BELOW 1 MILE AT KCMX/KIWD. AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT ALL
THREE SITES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO TREND TOWARDS VFR AT KIWD/KSAW
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH WINDS STILL BEING FAVORABLE AT KCMX...HAVE
HELD ONTO MVFR CEILINGS. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT....EXPECT
THE FINE FLAKES TO AGAIN BE GOOD AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND HAVE
LOWERED VALUES TO IFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

SEVERAL PERIODS OF GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY /WHERE OPEN WATER
REMAINS/ WILL OCCUR ON LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COUPLE OF
SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.

LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY TO W QUEBEC AND N LAKE HURON
WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER E QUEBEC TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS WILL SINK TO THE MS
VALLEY TODAY...WHILE BRINGING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS
THIS EVENING TO SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO S QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THEN...AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER HUDSON BAY...EXPECT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN MONDAY TO SINK ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES TUESDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON
WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE N PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>005-009>013-084.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SUNDAY FOR
MIZ001>004-009-010-084.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
085.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MIZ006.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ005-
011.

WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ014.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR
MIZ012>014.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ264>267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ249-250-266.

GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ245-248-265.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248-265.

GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>244-263-264.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ263.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...KF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 251440 AAA
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
940 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

BASED OFF SPOTTER REPORTS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUED WINDS GUSTING
TO 20-30MPH...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM
GOGEBIC COUNTY THROUGH THE KEWEENAW. MOST MODELS HAVE SHOWN WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE FROZEN OVER...BUT THAT ISN/T THE CASE BASED OFF
SATELLITE IMAGERY LAST NIGHT AND MODIS FROM THURSDAY. ALSO...SEEING
NUMEROUS LES BANDS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULDN/T BE TOO MUCH (GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES)
DUE TO LOWERING INVERSIONS (3-4KFT ON 12Z KINL SOUNDING) AND DRIER
AIR FROM APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. BUT FELT THAT THE BLOWING
SNOW AND SPOTTER REPORTS OF SUB 1/2MI VISIBILITIES IN OPEN AREAS
WARRENTED AN ADVISORY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 552 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

LOTS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM. BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...THERE WAS A
THIN BY SIGNIFICANT LINE OF SHOWERS THAT SLID ACROSS THE CWA. NOW
WITH NW FLOW A DOMINANT BAND OF LES TEMPORARILY SET UP FROM/ACROSS
THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH E MARQUETTE COUNTY
/MARQUETTE AND HARVEY...DOWN ALONG M-28/. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2IN/HR
WERE SHOWN OF THE 88-D/RADAR.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO TODAY. NNW WINDS WILL TURN MORE OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-35KTS OVER ALGER CO. WILL KEEP
ONGOING HEADLINES GOING AS IS. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
OVER ALGER COUNTY AND E ALONG LS...AS WINDS WRAP AROUND A DEVELOPING
MESO-LOW ACROSS E LAKE SUPERIOR. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WITH
VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL BE COMMON. WILL LEAVE ONGOING HEADLINES GOING
AS IS FOR THE SHORT TERM. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES IS WIND CHILLS. EXPANDED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
FARTHER E...EVEN THOUGH LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

AS FOR ICE COVERAGE...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT
BREAKING OF THE ICE ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE INCREASED POPS/SNOW
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE AVAILABLE LES
PRODUCING AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE QUICKLY FADES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HRS AS WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE OUT OF THE WNW...IN RESPONSE
TO THE SFC RIDGE PUSHING IN FROM THE PLAINS STATES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

SEVERAL PERIODS OF GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY /WHERE OPEN WATER
REMAINS/ WILL OCCUR ON LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COUPLE OF
SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SUNDAY FOR
MIZ001>004-009-010-084.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
085.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MIZ006.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ005-
011.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7
AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ012>014.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ264>267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248-265.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ240>245-263-264.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KDLH 222132
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
332 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014

DEEPLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CTRL GREAT LAKES HAS SWEPT A POOL OF
VERY COLD AIR SOUTH INTO THE CWA. SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED THIS
AFTN OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS
NW WISC. LES HAS BEEN OCCURRING TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE SNOWBELTS
HOWEVER SO FAR AMOUNTS HAVE REPORTED TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. MODIS
IMAGERY TODAY SHOWED MUCH MORE OPEN WATER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. GUSTY NW WINDS WORKED ON INITIALLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF ICE
FREE WATER OFF NORTH SHORE AND CREATED A LARGER OPENING. VIS
IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A FAIRLY EVEN AMOUNT OF PLUME DEVELOPMENT IN
LAKE BDRY LYR SO LATENT HEAT EXCHANGE HAS BEEN OCCURRING. MID LVL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW IS WRAPPING WEST TOWARDS ERN WISC
ZONES AS OF MID AFTN. GUSTY NW WINDS...LOCALLY 35 MPH+...HAVE
OCCURED FROM THE BRD LAKES REGION TO TWIN PORTS THIS AFTN.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014

DEEP LOW OVER CTRL GT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO ERN GT LAKES BY
EARLY THURSDAY. A FAVORABLY MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP LES
GOING OVER SOUTH SHORE THROUGH THE EVENING/EARLY MORNING. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR RADAR/GROUND REPORTS TO DETERMINE NECESSITY OF AN
UPGRADE TO WARNING. GIVEN HOW LITTLE HAS FALLEN SO FAR WILL LET
ADDITIONAL 5 INCH POTENTIAL BE HANDLED BY THE EXISTING ADVISORY.
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE EVENING AND ENOUGH GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO HAVE WIND CHILL ISSUES ONCE AGAIN. WIND CHILL WARNING
LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS THE NE MN AND WRN WISC ZONES WITH AN ADVISORY
FARTHER EAST.

TOMORROW...SFC HIGH OVER DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS
SO WE MAINTAIN SOME PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SFC. THIS WILL ALLOW
NASTY WIND CHILLS TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. LES WILL SHUT DOWN
WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE DEEP LAYER AND INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING DOWN TO ABOUT 2K FT. TEMPS REMAIN
WELL BLO CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING TO THE EAST THUR NIGHT
AS AN UPPER S/W DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
S/W WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY FROM THE NW
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS THUR NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMTS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
AND INTO PARTS OF NW WI. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVES ON SATURDAY...AND
BRING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SWD FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN
THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS AND INTO S-CENTRAL MN LATE SAT NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE SERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. ANOTHER DOMINATE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT FAIRLY MILD THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 20S. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
ON SATURDAY AS THE ARCTIC DOOR OPENS UPON THE NORTHLAND AND MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AREA ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS AROUND ZERO OR
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO. BRISK WINDS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE 30S
AND 40S BELOW ZERO.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND BLSN OVER NE MN WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND HYR...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BECOMING VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS
TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND BACK TO THE W/SW TONIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -21 -3 -6 27 / 10 0 70 60
INL -29 -1 -5 25 / 10 0 70 60
BRD -22 -1 -7 31 / 0 0 40 60
HYR -21 -1 -10 28 / 40 0 60 70
ASX -15 -2 -8 27 / 90 10 60 60

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>037.

WI...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001-006-007.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ002>004-008-
009.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

LS...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KMFR 221652
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
852 AM PST WED JAN 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE INTO EASTERN OREGON AND IDAHO. THEN ON THURSDAY THE STRONG
RIDGE PERSISTS TO THE NORTH WITH AN UPPER LOW SETTING UP TO THE
SOUTH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN THE VALLEYS EXPECT
A DECREASE IN FOG BY THURSDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE
ROSEBURG AND GRANTS PASS AREAS. ON THE RIDGES, THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WITH THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND DRY AIR.

UPDATED THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY OF FOG AND SKY COVER BASED
ON THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA.

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/12Z TAF CYCLE.
FOG IS PRESENT THROUGH MANY OF THE VALLEYS IN SW OREGON AND WILL
AFFECT KRBG AND KMFR WITH IFR TO LIFR VIS AND CIGS THIS MORNING. THIS
FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TO AT LEAST MVFR IN ALL AREAS LATE
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON
AND BUILD AGAIN LATE THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND BECOME GUSTY WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER
ZONE. HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WINDS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM PST WED JAN 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...MODIS-VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB SATELLITE
IMAGERY VIA NASA/SPORT REVEALS PRETTY MUCH THE STATUS QUO THIS
MORNING. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S SATELLITE IMAGE AT ABOUT THE SAME
TIME, IT APPEARS NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE...JUST PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER FOG IN
PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES (NPWMFR) ARE UP
FOR THE UMPQUA/ROGUE VALLEYS UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. COULD ALSO
BE SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS ON AREA ROADS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN BELOW FREEZING. MOST AREAS BROKE OUT YESTERDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GRANTS PASS. EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO TODAY. AS A
RESULT, HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS HIGHER IN MEDFORD...UP INTO THE LOW
50S...WHILE KEEPING GRANTS PASS DOWN CLOSER TO THE MID 40S.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY BRINGING SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT TO AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THOSE AREAS SHOULD HAVE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO UTAH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH OREGON INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A STRONG RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SHORT WAVE TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED
LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OFFSHORE IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE WITH IT, SO WE'RE NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND
PEAKS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG WEST-EAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL CAUSE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
EAST SIDE AND OVER THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND EXPECTED MIXING, HAVE
DECIDED TO END THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY EAST OF THE CASCADES
A BIT SOONER...THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS,
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE TO MIX OUT
THE INVERSION, SO HAVE CONTINUED THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY
THERE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR RE-
ISSUED AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AND
OFFSHORE FLOW EASES. THE RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY,
THEN A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM, BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS APPEAR WEAK. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
GOING FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST ON THE
COAST. SPILDE

FIRE WEATHER...A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE TODAY INCREASING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THEN
PEAKING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO TWO
STRONG SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE FIRST WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT WHILE
THE SECOND TAKES A MORE WESTERLY TRAJECTORY THROUGH OREGON INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE TO MOVE WESTWARD DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW AS
IT MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE BROAD EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG WEST-EAST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MID
SLOPE AND RIDGE WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN CHANNELED AREAS. IT HAS BEEN
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY SINCE OCTOBER AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN VERY DRY
FUELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE WINDS, COMBINED WITH RH
RECOVERIES ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE COULD RESULT IN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH (RFWMFR) DETAILS THIS
POTENTIAL HAZARD. SPILDE

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR ORZ615>617-619>624.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ORZ023-024-026.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
ORZ021-023-024-026.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CAZ280>282-284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM
PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM
PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KMFR 221145
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
345 AM PST WED JAN 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...MODIS-VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB SATELLITE
IMAGERY VIA NASA/SPORT REVEALS PRETTY MUCH THE STATUS QUO THIS
MORNING. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S SATELLITE IMAGE AT ABOUT THE SAME
TIME, IT APPEARS NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE...JUST PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER FOG IN
PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES (NPWMFR) ARE UP
FOR THE UMPQUA/ROGUE VALLEYS UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. COULD ALSO
BE SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS ON AREA ROADS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN BELOW FREEZING. MOST AREAS BROKE OUT YESTERDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GRANTS PASS. EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO TODAY. AS A
RESULT, HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS HIGHER IN MEDFORD...UP INTO THE LOW
50S...WHILE KEEPING GRANTS PASS DOWN CLOSER TO THE MID 40S.

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS REMAINS LOCKED IN ALONG
THE NORTH COAST FROM ABOUT BANDON NORTHWARD. INLAND...FOG/LOW
CLOUDS ARE IN NEARLY IDENTICAL LOCATIONS THAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND COASTAL VALLEYS. LIFR/IFR CIG AND VIS
WILL IMPACT KMFR AND KRBG THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHOULD BURN OFF
TO AT LEAST MVFR IN ALL AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. -WRIGHT/SPILDE

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDS TONIGHT...SUBSIDE
LATE WEDNESDAY...AND BUILD AGAIN LATE THURSDAY. BEHIND A VERY WEAK
FRONT THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS IN
THE SOUTHERN OUTER ZONE. HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE SOUTH AT MAINLY LIGHT SPEEDS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT NO MAJOR STORMS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SK

.FIRE WEATHER...A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE TODAY INCREASING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THEN
PEAKING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO TWO
STRONG SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE FIRST WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT WHILE
THE SECOND TAKES A MORE WESTERLY TRAJECTORY THROUGH OREGON INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE TO MOVE WESTWARD DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW AS
IT MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE BROAD EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG WEST-EAST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MID
SLOPE AND RIDGE WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN CHANNELED AREAS. IT HAS BEEN
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY SINCE OCTOBER AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN VERY DRY
FUELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE WINDS, COMBINED WITH RH
RECOVERIES ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE COULD RESULT IN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH (RFWMFR) DETAILS THIS
POTENTIAL HAZARD. SPILDE

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CAZ280>282-284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 1 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

MAS/TRW/FJB/SK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 212203
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
503 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM
AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST. ONE SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER
THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE A STRONGER CLIPPER SHRTWV WAS MOVING SE
THROUGH NRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE LINGERING LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WAS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT OFFSHORE AS WINDS BACK TO THE
WEST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW
HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN MN WITH THE STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN AND
ASSOCIATED 280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LES INTO THE KEWEENAW HAS
BEEN LIMITED BY ADDITIONAL ICE BUILD UP OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
VIS/MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT MOST
OF THE WRN LAKE ICE COVERED EXCEPT A PORTION BETWEEN SILVER
CITY/ROCK OF AGES(ISLE ROYALE)/AND THE PORTAGE CANAL.
HOWEVER...SINCE MUCH OF THE ICE HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IT IS THIN
AND COULD BE BROKEN UP AGAIN BY STRONG WINDS.

TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA
THIS EVENING AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV MOVES IN AHEAD
OF THE SHRTWV. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL DROP THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND TEMPS SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONV DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LES
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY AROUND 18Z AND INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED....THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WOULD
MAINLY IMPACT N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE HEAVIER LES WOULD MOVE INTO THE
HURON MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO MARQUETTE BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR THE EVENING. OVER THE WEST...THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN
ICE COVER. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NEWER ICE MAY BREAK UP WITH THE
ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX IS STILL
EXPECTED...THE EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF ICE IS LIKELY TO LIMIT OVERALL
SNOW TOTALS. SO...THE FCST CUTS BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FCST WITH MAX AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH
RANGE...GREATEST NEAR ROCKLAND AND TWIN LAKES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF KEWEENAW COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL INCREASING
INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO THE SFC
TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.
SO...SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH POOR VSBY AND SNOW
COVERED ROADS IS STILL POSSIBLE THE WATCH WAS LEFT INTACT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM FCST WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE
OF ICE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG N WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME BREAKING OF THE ICE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OTHER TIMES OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE WINDS AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...TO SEE WHAT WINS OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING IN THE W WHERE SOME FLUXES REMAIN...AND
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND E AREAS WHERE MORE OPEN WATER
REMAINS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST AS CHANGING
ICE COVERAGE DEMANDS CHANGES IN AREAS AND STRENGTH OF LES.

THE OVERALL 500MB RIDGE W/TROUGH E WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN. THE NEAREST 500MB LOW STRETCHING FROM LAKE MI
THROUGH E LAKE SUPERIOR AND S QUEBEC AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY
SLIP E...BEING REPLACED BY N FLOW ALOFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON THURSDAY.
WITH SEVERAL SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES...EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER /MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/.

AS FOR THE ONGOING NEAR-TERM WEATHER...THE ONSET OF N WINDS OVER
CENTRAL UPPER MI WERE SLOWED DOWN BY APPROX 3 HRS. THE RESULT WILL
LIKELY BE LESS HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CITY OF MQT UNTIL AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY. CUT BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE W DUE TO THE CONCERN OF
ICE REMAINING OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH STILL 2-5IN FOR MARQUETTE
COUNTY AND THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY. A LES ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ALGER COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TO MID MORNING
THURSDAY AS E MARQUETTE AND W ALGER COUNTY LOOK TO BE THE AREA OF
BEST CONVERGENT FLOW NEAR THE SFC.

WAA WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF ICE CRUSHING WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY COME OUT OF THE SW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE ONLY REAL RIDGING ALOFT
TEMPORARILY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. 850MB WINDS OF 40-60KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 06Z FRIDAY ON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO -10 TO
-12C. INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY...INTO THE LOW 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL STILL BE AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A FAIRLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER S HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW BACK TO THE REGION FRIDAY...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF
COLDER AIR. THE 12Z ECMWF PUTS 850MB TEMPS OF -26 TO -30C AIR BACK
OVER THE CWA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL LINGER AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AS THE LOW
LINGERS ACROSS S QUEBEC. SIGNIFICANT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE W
EDGE OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TIMING OF
THESE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AT THAT DISTANCE IS NOT TOO CERTAIN...SO WILL
GO WITH A MORE GENERAL CONSENSUS TYPE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ON A SIDE NOTE...LOWER
TEMPERATURES ARE FIGURED EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NW WINDS AROUND
10MPH...AND CLOSER TO 15MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WIND CHILL VALUES
OF 20 TO NEAR 35 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

LINGERING LES INTO CMX WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR VSBY WITH MVFR
CIGS UNTIL WINDS BACK SW BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING MVFR
CLOUDS AT SAW WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...PER SATELLITE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGS -SN AND IFR CONDITIONS TO
KIWD AND KCMX WITH MVFR BY WED MORNING AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL COME TO AN END TODAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AS WINDS DIE DOWN. NEXT GALE EVENTS ALONG WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
LOOK TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER EVENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE
FOR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH
MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS COLD
AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266.

GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ263>265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KDLH 212113
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
313 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC RIDGE
AXIS MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH OVER NRN PLAINS
HAS SPREAD LIGHT SNOW INTO WRN EDGE OF CWA. VIS HAVE LOWERED TO
BETWEEN 1 1/2 TO 3 MILES WITHIN SNOW BAND. TEMPS REMAIN CHILLY BY
NORTHLAND STANDARDS WITH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE REGION.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...ELONGATED SFC LOW/TROUGH WITH PRIMARY CENTER
MORE LIKELY TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS BORDERLAND AND INTO THE
KEEWENAW PENINSULA BY 12Z WED. WEAK OMEGA STILL FCST WITHIN THE
SATURATED DGZ SO WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH
SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW.
WINDCHILL VALUES WILL LOWER TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS
EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE WRN PART OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY MENTION
IN ZFP FOR NOW AND CONCENTRATE ON SNOW/WIND OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SWRN
AND SRN CWA IN THE MORNING AS ISALLOBARIC PRESS RISE CENTER MOVES
SOUTH OF CWA. SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW AND
UNFORTUNATELY THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS WOULD BE PREFERRED.
THE FCST SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG SOUTH SHORE AND GRAVITY...OR STANDING...WAVE FROM SOUTH
SHORE TO SE CARLTON/NE PINE COUNTY. STANDING WAVE WOULD SUPPORT AN
ARE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY...POSSIBLY THE EVENING. OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL. MODIS IMAGERY AND EMC ICE SERVICE CHARTS SHOW A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF NEW ICE HAS FORMED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
HUGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS WHETHER THIS ICE COVERAGE CAN
OFFSET SOME OF THE BL LATENT HEAT EXCHANGE. TOUGH TO DETERMINE
AHEAD OF TIME BUT AFTER MUCH CONSTERNATION HAVE OPTED FOR A LES
ADVISORY WITH WORDING THAT AN EVENTUAL UPGRADE TO WARNING MAY BE
NECESSARY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW EQL INCREASING TO 10K TO 13K FT
TOMORROW AFTN WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES NEAR 750 J/KG...HOWEVER HI-
RES MDLS SHOWING LITTLE/NO DEVELOPMENT OF PLUMES. HAVING SAID THAT
THE SNOWFALL PLUMES FOR KIWD RANGE FROM A MIN OF 2 INCHES TO A MAX
OF 12 INCHES.

TOMORROW NIGHT...LES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS THE
SOUTH SHORE. AS EXPRESSED BEFORE...WE WILL NEED TO WAIT TO SEE HOW
INITIAL PLUME DEVELOPMENT OCCURS BEFORE WE CAN GET MORE CONFIDENCE
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LES EVENT. MEANWHILE WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL BEGIN LOWERING OVER MOST OF THE CWA SO A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AND WARNING WILL BE MOST LIKELY ISSUED OVER JUST ABOUT
ALL OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

A VERY COLD ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON THURSDAY WITH EARLY
MORNING LOWS IN THE -20 TO -35 DEG RANGE...AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
REACHING TO AROUND ZERO. MORNING WIND CHILLS -30 TO -45 WILL REMAIN
STEADY AROUND -20 OR SO THROUGH THE DAY. WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE NEXT S/W EXPECTED TO DROP SWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN
GREAT LAKES AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEAK WAA AND
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER THUR NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ONLY FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO. RELATIVELY STRONG WAA DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER AIR...AND BUMP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT REALLY FEEL THAT
WARM WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS...CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER TEENS. AFTER THIS WAVE
MOVES THROUGH YET ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL INTRUDE UPON THE
NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS SAT THROUGH MON WILL RANGE
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO. WILL ALSO
SEE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LES...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMT OF ICE COVERAGE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY BECOME MVFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVE IN
FROM THE NW. LOW-END MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH-END MVFR INTO LATE WED MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO THE WEST THIS EVENING AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH BY WED MORNING...BECOMING GUSTY...UP TO
20-30 KT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -7 1 -19 -1 / 80 40 10 0
INL -10 -3 -28 1 / 70 30 10 0
BRD -7 1 -21 1 / 80 10 10 0
HYR -6 4 -18 1 / 80 50 30 0
ASX -4 4 -14 0 / 70 80 60 0

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KMFR 211635
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
835 AM PST TUE JAN 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A WEAK FRONT, SOUTH WINDS OFFSHORE AND ALONG
THE COAST HAVE BROUGHT A SURGE OF LOW STRATUS TO THE COAST THIS
MORNING. INLAND, MORNING VALLEY FOG IS PRESENT IN THE WEST SIDE
VALLEYS. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH LIMITED VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
PRESENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS IN DOUGLAS, JACKSON AND
JOSEPHINE COUNTIES. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AROUND 10
AM PST THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST WITH VALLEY FOG REDEVELOPING
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/12Z TAF CYCLE.
A SURGE OF FOG AND STRATUS HAS MOVED UP THE COAST TO AROUND FLORENCE
OREGON WITH KOTH HAVING COME BELOW IFR EARLIER THIS MORNING. LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS PREVAIL IN THE STRATUS. AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBYS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE UMPQUA...ILLINOIS...APPLEGATE AND ROGUE
VALLEYS AS WELL...INCLUDING KRBG AND KMFR. EXPECT ALL THESE AREAS
TO CLEAR TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE.
THEN EXPECT THE LOWER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE SAME WEST SIDE
VALLEYS ALONG WITH THE ENTIRE COAST THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD FALL BELOW 10 FEET BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER INTERIOR BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL RECENTER INLAND OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TODAY CONTINUING
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TONIGHT. THE RETURN
OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO STRONGER NORTH WINDS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND. /FB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM PST TUE JAN 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...THIS MORNING'S SPORT MODIS-VIIRS MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY
DEPICTS VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH
FOG/LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ARE
EVIDENT WITH LESS COVERAGE OF FOG THROUGH THE SOUTH END OF THE
ROGUE VALLEY NEAR TALENT AND ASHLAND. BUT, ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE
IS THE SURGE OF FOG/STRATUS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS IS BEING INDUCED BY A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING 130 W AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
SOUTHERLIES AHEAD OF IT. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z KMFR SOUNDING
INDICATED THE MOIST LAYER DEPTH AT ABOUT 1000FT WITH RAPID DRYING
ABOVE ABOUT 945MB. OVERALL, NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS A TAD EARLIER BREAK OUT TIMES. THE
DEEPER "BOWLS" LIKE GRANTS PASS MAY TAKE THE LONGEST. IT APPEARS
THICKEST THERE CURRENTLY. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE SUNNY AND MILD
AGAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP BY TO OUR NORTH THIS
EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF THIS FEATURE...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST...BUT THAT'S ALL IT
IS...A SLIGHT CHANCE. BY WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD ALONG 130 W.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
OFFSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL BE 15-25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THE MID SLOPES
AND RIDGES WITH RH RECOVERIES 30-35% IN SW OREGON AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. A SECOND SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA AND RETROGRADE OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED
SO PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY...BUT IT WILL KEEP THE OFFSHORE
FLOW EVENT GOING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAY NOT
BE THAT NOTABLE IN A NORMAL YEAR, BUT SINCE WE HAVE BEEN VERY DRY
SO FAR THIS SEASON, THIS MAY RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE
TO THE WINDS AND LOW RHS.

BEYOND THAT, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL EASE THIS WEEKEND AND WE'LL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE, RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED DRY PATTERN. IT WON'T BE UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK WHERE
A PACIFIC SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE BREAK THROUGH AND BRING SOME RAIN TO
THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SPILDE

CLIMATE...THE 3 PRIMARY OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW, FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN THE LAST WEEK, INDICATE A BREAK DOWN IN THE BLOCKING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AROUND DAY 10, JANUARY 28TH.
MODELS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONSISTENT IN TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, AND THERE IS GOOD REASON TO BELIEVE IN
THIS TREND. A STRONG AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION IN AND
AROUND INDONESIA HAS BEEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND IS
EVER SO SLOWLY REFOCUSING EASTWARD TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE. THIS FEATURE IS REFLECTED IN FORECAST MJO INDICES. THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH A DIP IN THE JET STREAM COMING OFF OF THE COAST
OF ASIA ARE EXPECTED TO SEND FORTH ENOUGH ENHANCED JET STREAM
ENERGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO WEAKEN AND BUMP THE RIDGE ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DO INDICATE A BREAKDOWN
IN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE, THEY DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON
RELATED DETAILS- PRIMARILY HOW FAST THIS BREAKDOWN OCCURS AND HOW
FAST WE GET WET. THE CFS INDICATES THE WET PART WON'T BEGIN UNTIL
THE WEEK THAT BEGINS FEBRUARY 2ND, WHEREAS THE FASTER OPERATIONAL
ECMWF MODEL INDICATES A NOTABLE STORM ARRIVING ON THE 28TH OF
JANUARY. BTL

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-023.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ORZ023-024-026.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
FOR PZZ370-376.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KMFR 211210
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
410 AM PST TUE JAN 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS MORNING'S SPORT MODIS-VIIRS MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY
DEPICTS VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH
FOG/LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ARE
EVIDENT WITH LESS COVERAGE OF FOG THROUGH THE SOUTH END OF THE
ROGUE VALLEY NEAR TALENT AND ASHLAND. BUT, ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE
IS THE SURGE OF FOG/STRATUS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS IS BEING INDUCED BY A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING 130 W AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
SOUTHERLIES AHEAD OF IT. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z KMFR SOUNDING
INDICATED THE MOIST LAYER DEPTH AT ABOUT 1000FT WITH RAPID DRYING
ABOVE ABOUT 945MB. OVERALL, NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS A TAD EARLIER BREAK OUT TIMES. THE
DEEPER "BOWLS" LIKE GRANTS PASS MAY TAKE THE LONGEST. IT APPEARS
THICKEST THERE CURRENTLY. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE SUNNY AND MILD
AGAIN.

.AVIATION...A SURGE OF FOG AND STRATUS HAS MOVED ONSHORE FROM
CHARLESTON SOUTHWARD BUT REMAINS OFFSHORE NORTH OF COOS BAY. KOTH
REMAINS VFR AT THIS TIME...BUT STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS PREVAIL IN THE STRATUS. AREAS OF
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE UMPQUA...ILLINOIS...AND
ROGUE VALLEYS AS WELL...INCLUDING KRBG AND KMFR. EXPECT ALL THESE
AREAS TO CLEAR TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT UNDER THE STRATUS
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE LOWER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE SAME WEST
SIDE VALLEYS ALONG WITH THE ENTIRE COAST TUESDAY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
STOCKTON

.MARINE...ANOTHER ROUND OF LONG PERIOD MODERATE WEST SWELL IS NOW
PEAKING AND WILL SUBSIDE INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER INTERIOR BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL RECENTER INLAND OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUING SOUTHERLY
WINDS. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RETURN OF
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO STRONGER NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND. BTL/STOCKTON

.CLIMATE...THE 3 PRIMARY OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW, FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN THE LAST WEEK, INDICATE A BREAK DOWN IN THE BLOCKING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AROUND DAY 10, JANUARY 28TH.
MODELS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONSISTENT IN TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, AND THERE IS GOOD REASON TO BELIEVE IN
THIS TREND. A STRONG AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION IN AND
AROUND INDONESIA HAS BEEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND IS
EVER SO SLOWLY REFOCUSING EASTWARD TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE. THIS FEATURE IS REFLECTED IN FORECAST MJO INDICES. THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH A DIP IN THE JET STREAM COMING OFF OF THE COAST
OF ASIA ARE EXPECTED TO SEND FORTH ENOUGH ENHANCED JET STREAM
ENERGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO WEAKEN AND BUMP THE RIDGE ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DO INDICATE A BREAKDOWN
IN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE, THEY DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON
RELATED DETAILS- PRIMARILY HOW FAST THIS BREAKDOWN OCCURS AND HOW
FAST WE GET WET. THE CFS INDICATES THE WET PART WON'T BEGIN UNTIL
THE WEEK THAT BEGINS FEBRUARY 2ND, WHEREAS THE FASTER OPERATIONAL
ECMWF MODEL INDICATES A NOTABLE STORM ARRIVING ON THE 28TH OF
JANUARY. BTL

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
FOR PZZ370-376.

MAS/JRS/BTL/FJB

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 210940
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
440 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND A DEEP AND BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE REST OF THE U.S. THE NAM
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE COMING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA ON WED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. NAM
BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE
TONIGHT. NAM ALSO BRINGS IN SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON THE
I270K-I285K SURFACES TONIGHT.

GOING FORECAST HAD THINGS WELL IN HAND AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO IT EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P. WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND TO HAVE DRY
AIR OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS HEAD NORTH WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SW. CONTINUED
TREND OF HAVING LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS COMING IN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE WITH SW WINDS. WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY FOR THE ERN CWA
FOR TODAY WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE ACROSS
ALGER...NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT AND WESTERN LUCE COUNTIES AND COULD SEE
UP TO 6 INCHES MORE OF SNOW TODAY. AS FOR WIND CHILLS...WILL LET
ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 16Z AS WIND CHILLS ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. HAVE GOTTEN DOWN TO -25F. COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH
OF SNOW TONIGHT WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

STILL APPEARS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF
UPR MICHIGAN. NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS DUE TO RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND TROUGH OVER EAST TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA. STRONG
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH IMPACT
SNOW AND WIND WEDNESDAY AFTN AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO MOST OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...LAKE
EFFECT CONTINUES FOR NW FLOW AREAS ON THURSDAY...THOUGH IT WILL
DIMINISH BY AFTN/EVENING AS WINDS BACK STEADILY MORE NW AND
INVERSIONS FALL OFF TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS IN THIS TYPE OF ARCTIC
AIRMASS. AFTER SOME MODERATION IN THE CHILL LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR DIVES INTO THE AREA THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND LEADING TO MORE LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NW FLOW AREAS
OF ESPECIALLY EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LARGER SCALE CLIPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH. SHORTWAVE
WITH BATCH OF MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOULD BRING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS TO MOST OF CWA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LINGERING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE WILL SUPPORT LGT
SNOW THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY EVEN ALONG THE WI BORDER
AND LK MICHIGAN. BIGGER STORY BY FAR ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE INCREASING
SETUP FOR HIGH IMPACT WIND AND SNOW EVENT IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.
RIGHT FROM THE GET GO...STILL THINK BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL FM THIS EVENT WILL BE OVER MARQUETTE AND EASTERN BARAGA
COUNTY WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING CYCLONIC NNE-NE FLOW 25-35 KTS...H85
TEMPS AROUND -20C...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS/EQL/S PUSHING TOWARD
15KFT. RESULTING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY IS IN A WORD...EXTREME.
UPSLOPE LIFTING ONLY ADDS TO THE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL. SETUP SEEMS
FAVORABLE FOR SEEING INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES FOR MANY HOURS LATE
AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING AS MESOLOW THAT FORMS OVER EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR TONIGHT PUSHES ONSHORE. TWO INCHES PER HOUR NOT OUT OF
QUESTION. THIS IS THE SNOW ASPECT. BLYR WINDS OVER 30 KTS SUGGEST
CONSIDERABLE BLSN/DRSN WITH FREQUENT WHITEOUTS MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONFIDENT WARNING CONDITIONS WILL VERIFY IN THESE AREAS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.

HOWEVER...REALLY DO NOT THINK THIS IS WHERE THE ONLY HAZARD WILL BE
DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SETUP IS NOT AS IDEAL FOR
AREAS FARTHER NORTHWEST /KEWEENAW PENINSULA/ AND INTO WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN /GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES/ IT IS STILL FAVORABLE FOR
A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND AGAIN LIKE BARAGA AND
MARQUETTE COUNTIES...VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH BLSN/DRSN AS
PRESSURE RISE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. ALSO...SINCE THE
GREATEST HAZARD FOR THOSE AREAS WILL SLIGHTLY EARLIER...DURING THE
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING PUTTING THIS RIGHT DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE
HOME FROM WORK AND SCHOOL...FELT STRONGLY ENOUGH TO PUT OUT A WATCH
FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. OF ALL THESE ADDITIONAL AREAS...BEST CHANCE
TO SEE CLOSE TO WARNING SNOWFALL WILL BE TOWARD IWD AND WHITE PINE
AS SOUNDINGS SHOW CYCLONIC NNE FLOW WITH INVERSIONS 7-10KFT. ICE
COVERAGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IS A CONCERN BUT MODIS SATELLITE
IMAGE FROM MONDAY AFTN INDICATED OPEN WATER NORTH OF KIWD TOWARD
ISLE ROYALE...WHICH IS THE WHERE THIS NNE FLOW WOULD BENEFIT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN LOOK INTO THINGS FURTHER AND DECIDE WHETHER A HIGH END
ADVY OR WARNING IS NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. WOULD HAVE JUST DONE AN
SPS ON THIS SHIFT IF IT WAS NOT FOR THE STRONG WINDS/BLSN/DRSN AND
POTENTIAL WHITEOUTS/REDUCED VSBY THAT MAY OCCUR DURING THE PEAK AFTN
TRAVEL TIME.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHER POTENTIAL HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER WOULD
BE OVER THE KEWEENAW LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DURING THIS
TIME WEST WINDS OVER 30 KTS COMBINE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND/OR LGT
SNOW FM SFC LOW CROSSING ONTARIO TO RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF POOR
VSBY AND IMPACTS ON TRAVEL.

WEEKEND FEATURES ANOTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR AS H85 TEMPS FALL
BACK BLO -28C. LOWEST TEMPS LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING
OVER SNOWBELTS OF THE EAST. DGZ WILL BE NON-EXISTANT SO MAIN IMPACT
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE REDUCED VSBY DUE TO SMALL SNOWFLAKES.
DEEP WINTER MARCHES ON.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014

A COLD N WIND BRINGING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN TO UPPER MI WILL SLOWLY
BACK SW OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...BRINGING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TEMPORARILY. THE COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN SMALL
SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS. THUS...CONDITIONS MAY
VARY SIGNIFICANTLY AS IS USUALLY THE CASE DURING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
KCMX WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY -SHSN...AND CONDITIONS THERE WILL
LIKELY VARY BTWN MVFR AND IFR FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE BRIEF LIFR AS WELL. -SHSN AT KCMX WON'T END
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS BACK TO THE SW. KIWD WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH -SHSN AT TIMES REDUCING VIS TO IFR.
BACKING WINDS COMBINED WITH ICE COVER OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING.
WHILE THERE MAY BE AN OCNL MVFR CIG OVERNIGHT...KSAW WILL LIKELY
REMAIN VFR WITH MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT THRU THE PERIOD.
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THIS EVENING MAY BRING -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS
TO KIWD NEAR THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009-084.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ002-004-005-009>013-084.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
007-085.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ249-250-266.

GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ249-250-266.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ244-245-264-265.

GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ240>248-263>265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 122058
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2014

STEADY S WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP UP WARMER AIR INTO UPPER MI. WAS A
BIT SURPRISED TO SEE IWD JUMP UP TO 37F THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ENDED
UP BEING A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...ONCE THE LOW
CLOUDS AND MIXED PRECIP MOVED N INTO LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

TRICKY FCST THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HRS AS SFC/NEAR SFC TEMPS FLIRT WITH
THE FREEZING MARK. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE COUNTIES NEAR
LAKE MI...WHERE A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR AND
ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGING IN FROM W UPPER MI /CURRENTLY SET
UP OVER CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON/. BETTER FGEN/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z MONDAY DOWNSTREAM FROM
LAKE MI. GIVEN THE SURGE OF WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED AIR THIS
AFTERNOON...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED FCST LOWS FOR TONIGHT. THE
RESULT IS A MIX OF MAINLY RAIN AND SNOW FOR NEAR LAKE MI.
STILL...EVEN IF THE THERMOMETERS ARE REPORTING 32 OR 34F...SURFACES
THEMSELVES MAY STILL BE QUITE COOL. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO ALERT OF
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING NEAR LAKE MI THIS EVENING. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT THE PRECIP WILL MAINLY FALL E INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO WILL NOT HAVE THE SPS GOING PAST 04Z FOR NOW.

MODEL MIN TEMP SPREAD FOR TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS BIG AS THIS
MORNING...WHERE FCST LOWS RANGED FROM 10-27F...WITH THE MEDIAN AND
MEAN BEING 22F. WILL GO MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TONIGHT...WENT NEAR 30F
OVER THE E THIRD OF THE CWA...AND THEN INCREASED THEM A BIT AS NOTED
ABOVE.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WEAK SECONDARY BOUNDARY LES WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP OVER THE W. ALREADY HAVE REPORTS OF SNOW BEHIND THE LOW
OVER S SASKATCHEWAN. ADDING LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE MIX WILL ONLY
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. DID
NOT CHANGE POPS MUCH FOR MONDAY. LES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FIGURE
OVER GOGEBIC COUNTY...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HAS BEEN ABLE TO
SET UP OVER SW LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD VIEW /MODIS IMG/
SINCE THE 8TH OF JANUARY. WHILE TEMPS HAVE BEEN COLD...WINDS HAVE
BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME BREAKING OF QUICK FORMING ICE.
EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS W OF IWD TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE LES GOING
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE NEAR-SFC WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT TOO
WESTERLY OR OUT OF THE W-SW FROM MID AFTERNOON ON TO KEEP MUCH
GOING. OTHERWISE...WITH RATIOS NEARING 17:1...COULD HAVE 1 TO NEAR
2IN OF SNOW ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST SUN JAN 12 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA.
LOOKING AT THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES...THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS ARE ALL IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND ONLY VARY ON THE
SMALLER SCALE SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

MONDAY...SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA OVER THE
NEXT 24HRS WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMES BAY AT 12Z MONDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND LEADING
TO PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND WAVE
WHEN THEY COINCIDE WHICH LEADS TO DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION
LOCATION. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR THE VERY FIRST PART OF MONDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT...COLDER 850MB AIR WILL SURGE IN ALONG WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AROUND MID
DAY AND THEN THE EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF IS VERY MINIMAL/BLOTCHY OVER THE WEST AND HAVE
TO WONDER IF THAT IS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVERAGE THEY HAVE
OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. UNFORTUNATELY...CLOUDY SKIES HAVE LIMITED
ABILITY TO SEE COVERAGE OF ICE OVER THE WESTERN LAKE...BUT WOULD
HAVE TO BELIEVE IT IS LESS THAN INDICATED BY THE NAM/GEM-REGIONAL
DUE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE ICE SEEN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THIS PAST
WEEK. THEREFORE...AFTER A DRIER START TO THE DAY WILL TREND THE WEST
UP TOWARDS LIKELY VALUES AND HAVE QPF AMOUNTS A TOUCH HIGHER THAN
MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING. SINCE MUCH OF THE CLOUD WILL BE WITHIN THE
DGZ ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...HAVE TRENDED SNOW RATIOS UP THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE LOW 20S TO 1. EXPECT THIS LAKE EFFECT TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER IN THE
LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND INCREASE UNCERTAINTY.

THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS COME FROM THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...AN LOW
DEVELOPS IN ALBERTA AND MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH THE WAVE. MODELS AGREE
THAT THIS LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. BUT WHERE THEY DIFFER IS IN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS WAVE AND HOW COLD THE 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE. FIRST FOR THE WAVE...MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH
THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER AND THE RESULTING QPF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE LOW. THUS...WILL TREND POPS UP OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA TO
CHANCE VALUES. THE FARTHER NORTH TRACK LEADS TO LESS CONCERN ON
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT AND SINCE 850MB TEMPS SHOULD BE
BETWEEN -16C AND -18C...SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN LOW ALSO AFFECT THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND IN TURN THE LAKE EFFECT LOCATION. THE GENERAL
IDEA IS FOR THE 925-850MB WINDS TO BE IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
DIRECTION...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS IN THOSE
FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS (5-6KFT RANGE) WILL LIKELY COUNTERACT THE MORE
FAVORABLE SNOW RATIOS WITH MOST OF THE CLOUD WITHIN THE DGZ...SO
HAVE LIMITED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO A COUPLE INCHES FOR THE
FAVORED LOCATIONS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND
THEN CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL
FOCUS ON HIGHER POPS IN THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY AND THEN DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS
WINDS QUICKLY BACK SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...GEM/ECMWF/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WHERE THEY DIFFER THOUGH IS WITH THE TRACK/INTENSITY
OF THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERAL IDEA
FROM THE 00Z MODEL RUNS IS FOR THE LOW TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY AND THEN SLIDE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH...SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC (POSSIBLY LOW END
ADVISORY) SNOW AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN A TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT ON THE
BACKSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO AT LEAST -20C BY
12Z FRIDAY UNDER STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. THESE STRONG WINDS
(BL WINDS 25-35KTS) WILL LIKELY BREAK UP THE DENDRITES AND LEAD TO
SMALLER FLAKES AND LOWER ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ALSO BE EFFICIENT AT
REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CREATING POOR CONDITIONS IN THE FAVORED
SNOW BELTS THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEIGHTENED
WORDING/LEVELS IN THE HWO/EHWO...ALONG WITH AT LEAST LIKELY POPS.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH THE HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS RIGHT AWAY MONDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT BELOW
NORMAL BEFORE RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY. BUT THE
CLIPPER ON THURSDAY WILL BRING TUMBLING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER TEENS. AT THIS
POINT...THAT COLD SHOT OF AIR LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AND WE SHOULD
SEE THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFT EAST THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2014

QUICK MOVING REDUCTION IN VIS THAT BROUGHT A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TO
ALL 3 SITES THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS EXITED ACROSS
N KEWEENAW COUNTY AND OFF INTO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER BAND
OF MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE S...BUT IS MUCH LIGHTER
AND WILL RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL IMPACT AT THE AIRPORTS.
AFTER THE EXIT OF THE MVFR TO IFR MIXED PRECIP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE THE RULE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AT IWD AND CMX AS UPSLOPE WINDS AND COOLER AIR RESULT IN A
GOOD CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. THE FCST IS A BIT TRICKIER AT SAW...WHERE MAINLY
DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL EXPECT A BRIEF
RETURN TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK AS
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLIDES IN ON THE W WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2014

A FEW S GUSTS NEAR 30KTS WILL LINGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER FAR E LAKE SUPERIOR. A LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL
MOVE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL BRING A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS
FOR GUSTS AROUND 30KTS OVER MAINLY S CENTRAL/E LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW 35KT GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WILL GET RID OF
THE GALE WATCH...AND JUST GO WITH THE MENTION OF A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A QUICK MOVING LOW WILL THEN SINK FROM SASKATCHEWAN MONDAY AFTERNOON
TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAKENING
TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
LOW CROSSING LAKE WINNIPEG LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SINK ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. EXPECT SW GALES OF 35-40KTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...STRONGEST EAST. THEN N-NW GALES 35-NEAR 45KTS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...STRONGEST CENTRAL AND E. THE LOW
WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY...WHILE KEEPING A WEAK TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ263>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KKEY 090910
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
410 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
300 AM CONTINUES TO DEPICT A ROBUST BROADLY CYCLONIC MID AND UPPER
FLOW PATTERN ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE CONUS...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
OLD MEXICO THE GULF OF MEXICO...CUBA AND MOST OF THE BAHAMAS. AS A
RESULT...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE EVIDENT OVERHEAD OF THE KEYS ABOVE
650 MB....WITH 50 TO 75 KNOTS AT 250 MB.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY
OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS
OF 300 AM DETAIL THE MAIN AXIS OF A 1033-1035 MB ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE
OF ARCTIC ORIGINS PRESENTLY ORIENTED FROM NEW JERSEY SOUTH SOUTHWEST
TO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT. CLOSER TO THE KEYS...THERE A WARM SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED FROM ANDROS ISLANDS SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS
CUBA...BUT IT IS NOW SLOWLY APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. LAST EVENINGS 00Z SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED THAT A FRONTAL
INVERSION WAS ALOFT ONLY AT ABOUT 700 FEET AGL LAST EVENING...BUT
ATTM STRATUS BASES HAVE FALLEN EVEN LOWER OVER THE KEYS...WITH SOLID
OVERCAST NOW AT 300-400 FEET AGL AT BOTH KEY WEST AND MARATHON
AIRPORTS. LAST EVENINGS 00Z SOUNDING ALSO ILLUSTRATED THAT VERY GOOD
LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REMAINED IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INCREASE FROM NEAR 15 KNOTS RIGHT AT THE
SURFACE...BECOMING MAINLY EASTERLY AND INCREASING UP TO AROUND 25
KNOTS FROM 500 TO 3000 FEET AGL.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 300 AM...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL DETECT
PATCHY LIGHT RAINFALL AND DRIZZLE RIGHT ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. MORE
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IS JUST OFFSHORE...WITH MOST OF IT
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES OVER
THE ISLANDS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S. GIVEN THE LOWER LEVEL FRONTAL INVERSION MENTIONED ABOVE
AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...LOW CLOUD COVER SURROUNDS THE
ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE SHALLOW WATERS...AND IT CAN BE INFERRED THERE
IS LIKELY A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK WITH BASES AOA 400 FEET
AGL...AND THERE IS ANOTHER CLOUD DECK ABOVE THAT WITH BASES AOA
FL030-050. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE STILL RECORDING
SUSTAINED EAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY...WITH SMITH SHOAL
LIGHT CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ATTM.

.FORECAST...TODAY THRU THIS EVENING...THE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE KEYS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE OF EXACT TIMING IS SOMEWHAT ELUSIVE. UNTIL THAT TIME...A
SOLID LOW CLOUD/STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN OVER THE ISLANDS UNTIL THAT
BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE NORTH. LATEST AVAILABLE MODIS SEA SURFACE
ANALYSIS ILLUSTRATED THAT ALL SHALLOW WATERS AR AROUND 70 DEGREES OR
HIGHER...SO ANY THREAT FOR FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL ATTM...A FEW
PATCHES OF SEA FOG COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SHALLOWER WATERS INSIDE
THE FIVE FATHOM LINE...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM.
THEREAFTER BY THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUD BASES SHOULD LIFT...BUT GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...COMBINED WITH JUST SOME WEAK
IMPULSES ALOFT BETWEEN 500-200 MB...WILL STILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDY SKIES WILL ONLY GIVE WAY TO A FEW
BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN COVERAGES OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. IN TERMS
OF RAIN CHANCES...WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF THE STRONG ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...MOVING FROM
NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS AFTERNOON TO ABOUT 40 NORTH 60 WEST DURING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. SO WOULD
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO END THIS MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT
CLOSE BY. DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER IN SOMETIME AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER BIT OF A SURGE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM SURFACE FRONT DISSIPATES...AND THE LOCAL
GRADIENT IS INFLUENCED PRIMARILY BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
THEN ON SATURDAY THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES RAPIDLY OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY...REACHING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY BUT STALLING
ON MONDAY. LOCAL WINDS SHOULD BOX AROUND TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ON
SATURDAY AND LIGHTEN UP...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY...THEN CLOCKING
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE LOWEST ON
SATURDAY GIVEN THE DRIER AIR...BUT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY. SO RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE HELD AT 20 PERCENT FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT ON
SATURDAY. HI AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITY.

EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE NOT THAT
SUPPORTIVE OF ANOTHER GOOD FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT DO SUGGEST THAT 1025
MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA SOUTHWARD DURING TUESDAY MORNING...SO BREEZY
CONDITIONS WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HI AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS IF THIS SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION. SINCE ITS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THRU TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE REST
OF THIS MORNING FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS...HAWK CHANNEL...THE WATERS
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND REBECCA SHOAL AND THE DRY
TORTUGAS...AND THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTY. ITS POSSIBLE THAT CAUTIONARY HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR ELEVATED SEAS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON.
HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES MAY BE INSERTED FRIDAY NIGHT IN HAWK
CHANNEL...THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW HEADLINE OR ADVISORY
STATUS OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE A PERIODIC OCCURRENCE AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BEFORE BREAKING OUT AGAIN AROUND
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THOUGH SURFACE OBS WILL BE LIGHTER...STRONGER
AND GUSTY ENE WINDS WILL BE SEEN JUST OFF THE SURFACE THROUGH 3KFT.

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN 1953, A RARE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED
TWO MINUTES OF HAIL AND A 73 MPH GUST IN KEY WEST. THE RAINFALL FOR
THE DAY WAS RECORDED AS 3.38 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL TOTAL STILL
STANDS AS A DAILY RECORD FOR JANUARY 9TH. RAINFALL RECORDS IN KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ033&042>044-052>055-072>075 THRU 16Z

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 77 73 78 75 / 50 40 20 20
MARATHON 79 74 82 75 / 50 40 20 20

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.............DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.......MSB

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.KEYWEST.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 011238
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
338 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS. WILL
USE A BLEND AFTER THAT TO SMOOTH OUT THE DIFFERENCES.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...537 DAM HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH
ARCTIC. A 505 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER ILLIAMNA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER
THE KOBUK BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A LOW
OVER SOUTHERN NUNAVUT. A 508 DAM LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC TO OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AT 509 DAM BY THURSDAY
MORNING MOVING NORTH TO OVER THE MOUTH OF NORTON SOUND BY FRIDAY
MORNING. A SHARP RIDGE WILL PUSH 537 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT..THE RIDGE THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

SURFACE...1035MB HIGH NEAR 80N 155W WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A 979MB LOW OVER COOK INLET WILL MOVE OVER PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND BY THURSDAY MORNING AS IT WEAKENS TO 1004MB. A
WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL WORK NORTH AS IT DISSIPATES OVER THE
INTERIOR TONIGHT. A 1013MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR
THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE EAST TO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY FRIDAY
MORNING. A 977 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO ADAK THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE
NORTHEAST TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST TO A LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
MOVES EAST IT WILL SPIN SOME MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ARCTIC...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THEY START DIMINISHING FROM THE EAST. BLOWING SNOW MAY BE AN
ISSUE IN THE COASTAL AREAS REDUCING VISIBILITY...BUT SINCE THE
WINDS HAVE BEEN UP FOR SO LONG MOST OF THE SNOW IS ALREADY BLOWN
AWAY. MODIS 11 MICRON SATELLITE AT 0730Z SHOWS THE STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE AS A WARM PLUME EXTENDING FROM EAST
TO WEST. STRONG WINDS IN THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES CAN ALSO SHOW UP
AS MUCH WARMER THAN THE SURROUNDING AREA. CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THOUGH SOME STRATUS FLOATING AROUND AS USUAL.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES SOUTH OF AMBLER TODAY...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH
ACCUMULATION...MAY AN INCH FOR MOST PLACES. BEST CHANCE FOR
HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AROUND MCGRATH. SNOW
IS ALREADY FALLING IN THE YUKON DELTA AND WILL SPREAD NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH THIS
MORNING WILL TAPER DOWN LATER IN THE DAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS.

INTERIOR...CLOUDY TODAY OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR...LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
YUKON RIVER FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS ARE CHINOOKING OUT MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION IN THE INTERIOR SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH...HOWEVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY COULD
SEE UP TO 4 INCHES AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DISSIPATES OVER THE
AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE TODAY
WITH HIGHS 15 TO 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. STRONG
WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AND IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235.

SDB DEC 13

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 311327
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
427 AM AKST TUE DEC 31 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD CONTINUITY CONTINUES BUT ONLY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS
OR SO. MODELS STAY FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE MAJOR ELEMENTS...BUT
START SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN POSITIONING AND EVOLUTION.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...537 DAM HIGH REMAINS OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC
NEAR 78N 155W EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE BORDER BETWEEN THE YUKON
AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. OVER THE ARCTIC THE RIDGE BE QUASI
STATIONARY. WHILE THE RIDGE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY AS A
BRANCH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC ROTATES INTO THE AREA. A 505 DAM
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OVER KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT...THEN BE LOCATED
ANYWHERE FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE WEST
COAST TODAY AND TRANSITION TO EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. OVER THE INTERIOR...LIGHT FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT 850 HPA...MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO SATURDAY.

SURFACE...1035MB HIGH NEAR 79N 149W EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO A 1038MB
CENTER OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA. THE 1035MB HIGH WILL MOVE NORTH
ABOUT 200 NM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING SO WINDY CONDITION WILL
PERSIST. WITH THE LOW MOVING NORTH THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW WILL PUSH A DECAYING FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE INTERIOR AND UP THE WEST COAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WISE...MAYBE AN
INCH OF SNOW FOR PLACES THAT GET PRECIPITATION.

ARCTIC...WINDS CONTINUE AND WILL PICK UP ALONG THE COAST FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OF SO. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE IN THE COASTAL
AREAS REDUCING VISIBILITY. MODIS 11 MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS SOME
STRATUS UP OVER THE COAST WHICH WILL ALSO BE PROBLEMATIC. INLAND
CLEAR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. IN THE BROOKS RANGE STRONG SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE GUSTING TO 45 MPH IN
PASSES.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
NONDESCRIPT FLOW NEXT 12 HOURS AS LOW PUSHES NORTH. PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE YUKON RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER
KUSKOKWIM RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF KOTZEBUE SOUND. NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE
THURSDAY OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA.

INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE INTERIOR...THOUGH MODIS DOES SHOW
STRATUS HANGING OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND IN THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE. EXPECT JUST A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS.
WINDS OVER SUMMITS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM NORTH OF FAIRBANKS SO
WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES INTO THE EVENING AND HAVE WORDING
CONCERNING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE ELLIOTT HIGHWAY. TANANA VALLEY JET
CONTINUES AND WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT. WILL ALSO ADD WORDING ABOUT
STRONG WINDS THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SDB DEC 13

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 301258
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
358 AM AKST MON DEC 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD CONTINUITY CONTINUES OUT TO AROUND 60 HOURS OR SO
IN ALL THE MODELS. THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC IS THE
MAIN FOCUS OF DIFFERENCES AS YOU GET FURTHER INTO THE MODEL RUN.
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME PROBLEMS AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY WINDS
ON THE ARCTIC COAST. WILL USE A BLEND FOR WINDS SPEEDS OVER THE
AREA AS NAM IS TOO HIGH AND GFS IS TOO LOW.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...539 DAM HIGH REMAINS OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC
NEAR 75N 143W EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE BORDER BETWEEN THE YUKON
AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. OVER THE ARCTIC THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT
NORTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WHILE THE RIDGE OVER CANADA
REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY. WEAK FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK. OVER THE WEST COAST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST. A 507 DAM CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF SAND POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING
NORTH TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT 850
HPA...NO SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION UNTIL WE SEE SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION UP THE WEST COAST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT PUSHES
NORTH.

SURFACE...1037MB HIGH NEAR 77N 140W EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO A 1038MB
CENTER OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI
STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH TUESDAY. DECAYING OCCLUSION OVER THE WEST COAST THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE NRTHWEST OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST FROM ST MATTHEW
ISLAND TO YAKUTAT BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND FROM ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND TO EAGLE BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
TH ARCTIC PLAIN CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST CREATING STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS. THIS PATTERN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK.

ARCTIC...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRONG EAST WINDS OVER
THE COAST EAST OF PRUDHOE BAY AND OVER THE MARINE AREAS EAST OF
BARROW...ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN WEDNESDAY. BLOWING
SNOW ALONG THE COAST EAST OF PRUDHOE BAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE
BROOKS RANGE PASSES AGAIN TODAY...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO AROUND
35KT SO EXPECT PASS WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH LOCALLY...WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS OVER THE
WESTERN ARCTIC PLAIN AND COAST WILL MOVE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ARCTIC TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MODIS 11 MICRON IMAGERY AT
0743Z SHOWS STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT IS MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE SIBERIAN
COAST...WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST AND EXIT THE WEST COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
WHICH WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH. EAST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH AROUND UNALAKLEET WILL TAPER OFF
THIS MORNING TO AROUND 20 MPH. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA AFTER THE STRATUS MOVES OUT.

INTERIOR...MODIS SHOW STRATUS HANGING OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW. STRATUS AND FLURRIES WILL MOVE
NORTHWEST OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS TODAY AND DISSIPATE.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WARMING OR COOLING NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS SO EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE HIGH IN THE ZERO TO 15 BELOW
RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 5 TO 25 BELOW RANGE. WINDS OVER SUMMITS
CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES FOR
TODAY AND HAVE WORDING CONCERNING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE ELLIOTT
HIGHWAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ219-AKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

SDB DEC 13

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KMFR 291657
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
857 AM PST SUN DEC 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS STRATUS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS THE
MOISTURE LAYER AROUND 1700 FEET WITH RAPID DRYING ABOVE THAT. THIS
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONS OVER THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES
WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE LOW. THE FOG IN THE ROGUE VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD LIFT TO
A LOW OVERCAST BRIEFLY BEFORE FOG RETURNS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT SOME MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE
OR NO EFFECT FOR US. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE WE SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER. -PETRUCELLI

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE

A PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA BRINGING INLAND VALLEY FOG AND FREEZING FOG WEST OF
THE CASCADES. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE UMPQUA, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE AND ROGUE VALLEYS
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FOG MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND CIGS MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY, BUT CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE LOWEST AND
ALSO SLOWEST TO IMPROVE THE ROGUE VALLEY. ANY IMPROVEMENT AT KMFR
MAY ONLY BE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FOG
RETURNS EARLY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD VALLEY IFR/LIFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES RETURNS IN FOR FOR THESE AREAS ONCE AGAIN THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...WHICH INCLUDES THE COAST, SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE AREA
EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM PST SUN DEC 29 2013/

DISCUSSION...HI RESOLUTION SPORT MODIS-VIIRS NIGHTTIME
MICRO-PHYSICS RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A DEEPER MOIST LAYER
NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. AS A RESULT, THE CLOUD LAYER IS MORE STRATUS THAN FOG NEAR
ROSEBURG THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY THAT DENSE FOG WILL
BE ENCOUNTERED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS SURROUNDING
ROSEBURG...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAMAS MOUNTAIN AND ALSO THE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE CITY NEAR CANYONVILLE. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE
MAINTAINED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING.

A SHALLOWER MOIST LAYER IS EVIDENT IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WITH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WEB CAMS INDICATING WIDESPREAD
FREEZING FOG FROM GRANTS PASS TO MEDFORD. A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY
IS OUT FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE SOUTH ENDS OF BOTH THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY AND ROGUE VALLEY HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THIS EARLY HOUR IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WITH THE
RIDGE AT ITS STRONGEST TODAY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH MIXING OUT OF THE
MOIST LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS, SO WE'LL REMAIN COLD IN THE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HERE IN MEDFORD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. ASHLAND
THOUGH SHOULD GET SOME SOUTHEAST WIND TODAY TO WARM INTO THE 40S.
MEANWHILE, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES AROUND THE AREA.
THE BROOKINGS EFFECT WILL BE IN FULL FORCE TODAY AND IS ALREADY
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S AT 3AM! MODEL 975 TEMPS ARE INDICATING
AROUND 17C THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS THERE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AND THE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON MONDAY. EVEN SO, THERE IS STILL NO APPRECIABLE
MIXING TO SCOUR OUT THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG. SO, EXPECT ANOTHER
DISMAL DAY AROUND MEDFORD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL
DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE SURROUNDING HILLS. IT WILL ALSO BE A
COOLER DAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY AND MORE MARINE AIR RETURNS.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL ZIP OFF TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AT BEST WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT THERE MAY BE A
LITTLE LIGHT RAIN IN COOS OR DOUGLAS COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
CAUSE MORE MIXING AND WEAKEN THE INVERSION TUESDAY. FOR NOW, HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
REMAINING IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY. SHORT WAVE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED NEW YEARS EVE INTO NEW YEARS DAY, SO IT'LL BE
DRY.

OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE THE RIDGE
PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY, BUT ALL INDICATE A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE
FRIDAY WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAN WE'VE SEEN IN
AWHILE. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY IF THIS IS A TREND TOWARD A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND OR IF THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SO
PERSISTENT REBUILDS OFFSHORE AGAIN. WE'LL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK
AT THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SPILDE

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ORZ023>026.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ023.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ022.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
ORZ024-026.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ORZ029>031.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
FOR PZZ370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ370-376.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 291315
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
415 AM AKST SUN DEC 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH MODELS PRETTY SIMILAR OUT TO AROUND 72 HOURS OR SO.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...PATTERN IS PRETTY FLAT OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE FAR WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. 517 DAM
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL MEANDER OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST. A 530 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY WILL
SLIP OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY TONIGHT...THE LOW
WILL WEAKEN THEN REFORM ON MONDAY AND BACK ITS WAY OVER THE UPPER
YUKON AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER BRISTOL
BAY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH TO OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND
NORTON SOUND BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE NORTHWEST TO
OVER WRANGEL ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A 511 DAM CLOSED LOW
WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUESDAY MORNING THEN BE
ABSORBED INTO A 504 DAM CLOSED LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER SAND POINT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES OVER BRISTOL BAY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AT 508 DAM...THE LOW WILL BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR ST MATTHEW
ISLAND AT 514 DAM BY THURSDAY MORNING AND SPIN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT 850
HPA...NOT MUCH ADVECTION GOING ON. ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE...1042MB HIGH NEAR 78N 145W EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO A 1036MB
CENTER OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI
STATIONARY...BUT IT DOES WEAKEN AS TIME PASSES. UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE FORTYMILE WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES UNTIL IT MOVES EAST...THEN PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES WHEN IT BACK OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MIDDAY. SNOW ON THE WEST COAST WILL WORK ITS WAY WEST OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH SNOW ENDING IN THE MIDDLE
YUKON BY THIS EVENING AND SOME LINGERING SNOW FROM THE SEWARD
PENINSULA SOUTH ENDING MONDAY EVENING. 966MB LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OVER SAND POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SPIN ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE ONGOING EVENT WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL IN THE MIDDLE YUKON AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM THURSDAY.

ARCTIC...RIDGE OFFSHORE AND TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS WILL
PRODUCE RELATIVELY STRONG EAST WINDS OVER THE COAST AND MARINE
AREAS NORTH OF POINT LAY. SOME LOCAL ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW
ALONG THE COAST. ARCTIC HAZE AND PATCHY FOG INLAND WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY FLAT NEXT 24 HOURS.
ONLY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA SO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES FROM POINT LAY SOUTH
IF ANYTHING. SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES PICKING
UP TODAY...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30KTS SO EXPECT
PASS WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH LOCALLY...WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE YUKON RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER YUKON
DELTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THOSE AREAS OF UP
TO 3 INCHES BEFORE THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE WEST
TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE
BERING STRAIT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF THE BERING
STRAIT. MODIS 11 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS
EAST OF SHISHMAREF AT 0839Z THAT WILL PROBABLY HANG AROUND MOST
OF THE DAY SO WILL ADD SOME CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO THAT AREA. LOW
MOVING UP THE WEST COAST MIDWEEK WILL CREATE SIMILAR ISSUES TO THE
ONGOING SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW RISE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH PUSHES UP IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW MOVING NORTH.

INTERIOR...FRONTAL SYSTEM IS GENERALLY FALLING APART OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING AS IT DRAGS TO THE EAST. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW CAN BE SEEN ON
THE PEDRO DOME NEXRAD OVERHEAD OF FAIRBANKS. SOUTH AND WEST OF
LIVENGOOD TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE OR BELOW ZERO AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW. NORTHEAST OF THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 25 TO 45 BELOW INTO
WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS IN THE VALLEYS...HOWEVER MODELS DO
SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE ADVISORIES FOR BLOWING SNOW OVER SUMMITS TODAY AND
EXTEND THEM INTO MONDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ219-AKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

SDB DEC 13

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KMFR 291200
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
400 AM PST SUN DEC 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...HI RESOLUTION SPORT MODIS-VIIRS NIGHTTIME
MICRO-PHYSICS RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A DEEPER MOIST LAYER
NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. AS A RESULT, THE CLOUD LAYER IS MORE STRATUS THAN FOG NEAR
ROSEBURG THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY THAT DENSE FOG WILL
BE ENCOUNTERED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS SURROUNDING
ROSEBURG...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAMAS MOUNTAIN AND ALSO THE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE CITY NEAR CANYONVILLE. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE
MAINTAINED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING.

.AVIATION...A PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BRINGING INLAND VALLEY
FOG AND FREEZING FOG WEST OF THE CASCADES. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CIGS AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UMPQUA,
ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE AND ROGUE VALLEYS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOG
MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CIGS MAY LIFT
SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE LOWEST AND ALSO SLOWEST
TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. ANY IMPROVEMENT AT KMFR
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE DUE TO FOG SEEDING. LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE WILL BE
PARTIAL IMPROVEMENT. HOWEVER AREAS OF VALLEY IFR/MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA, ROGUE, ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE
VALLEYS. THEN SUNDAY EVENING EXPECT A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD VALLEY
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOR FOR THESE AREAS ONCE AGAIN.
ELSEWHERE...WHICH INCLUDES THE COAST, SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE AREA
EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. CC

CA...NONE.

MAS/FJB/CC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KPIH 251547
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
847 AM MST WED DEC 25 2013

.UPDATE...SAT IMAGERY/AREA WEBCAMS PUT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS/FOG THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND STRETCHING
INTO THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER HUMIDITY AT SURFACE UNDER INVERSION LAYER 750-700MB THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME BREAKUP/EROSION OF THE LAYER EXPECTED FROM
THE EDGES THROUGH THE MORNING THOUGH NEW 12Z NAM GUIDANCE KEEPING
UPPER SNAKE PLAIN IN THE SOUP THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS WELL. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WX/SKY
GRIDS TO MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG AND HIGHER CLOUD PERCENTAGE THROUGH
THAT REGION. NO OTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED. DMH

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 AM MST WED DEC 25 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODIS FOG/LOW CLOUD IMAGERY
DOING A FAIR JOB THIS MORNING AT PICKING UP THE STRATUS IN THE UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND EXTENDING DOWN TO REXBURG. NAM LOW LEVEL RH
SHOWING THIS AREA SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN THROUGH ABOUT
SUNRISE. WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND COLD TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG...SO HAVE KEPT THAT IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN LOW UNDER THIS
PATTERN. THE MAIN STREAM OF MOISTURE ALONG THE UPPER JET AXIS
REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE RIDGE SHOWS
SIGNS OF SHIFTING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN
ALONG THE WA/OR COAST. GFS/NAM KEEPING THINGS RATHER DRY WITH THIS
TROUGH AS IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO. HINSBERGER

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS MAINTAIN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A DISTURBANCE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
SATURDAY...BRUSHING THE LOST RIVER RANGE AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS.
MOISTURE AT THIS TIME LOOKS MOSTLY LIKE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE
TRIMMED POPS IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN BACK SOME...FAVORING THE
HIGHER PEAKS. THERE IS A SECOND DISTURBANCE DROPPING ALONG THE
DIVIDE ABOUT NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN
MODELS IS THE ECMWF KEEPS A BIT MORE MOISTURE ON THE DOWN STREAM
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EACH DAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...COLD DRAINAGE OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP THE
ARCO DESERT AREA IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE AT NIGHT. RS

AVIATION...LOW STRATUS TRIES TO REDEVELOP OVER NIGHT IN THE UPPER
SNAKE PLAIN NEAR OR NORTH OF KIDA. THE DOWN PLAIN NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE ACTING TO THIN OUT THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WITH
TIME...SO THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A 2000-3000 FT AGL DECK SHOWING
UP. KPIH...KSUN....AND KBYI SHOULD BE LARGELY VFR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. RS

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KPIH 250939
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
239 AM MST WED DEC 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODIS FOG/LOW CLOUD IMAGERY
DOING A FAIR JOB THIS MORNING AT PICKING UP THE STRATUS IN THE UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND EXTENDING DOWN TO REXBURG. NAM LOW LEVEL RH
SHOWING THIS AREA SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN THROUGH ABOUT
SUNRISE. WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND COLD TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG...SO HAVE KEPT THAT IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN LOW UNDER THIS
PATTERN. THE MAIN STREAM OF MOISTURE ALONG THE UPPER JET AXIS
REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE RIDGE SHOWS
SIGNS OF SHIFTING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN
ALONG THE WA/OR COAST. GFS/NAM KEEPING THINGS RATHER DRY WITH THIS
TROUGH AS IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO. HINSBERGER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS MAINTAIN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A DISTURBANCE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
SATURDAY...BRUSHING THE LOST RIVER RANGE AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS.
MOISTURE AT THIS TIME LOOKS MOSTLY LIKE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE
TRIMMED POPS IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN BACK SOME...FAVORING THE
HIGHER PEAKS. THERE IS A SECOND DISTURBANCE DROPPING ALONG THE
DIVIDE ABOUT NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN
MODELS IS THE ECMWF KEEPS A BIT MORE MOISTURE ON THE DOWN STREAM
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EACH DAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...COLD DRAINAGE OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP THE
ARCO DESERT AREA IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE AT NIGHT. RS
&&

.AVIATION...LOW STRATUS TRIES TO REDEVELOP OVER NIGHT IN THE UPPER
SNAKE PLAIN NEAR OR NORTH OF KIDA. THE DOWN PLAIN NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE ACTING TO THIN OUT THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WITH
TIME...SO THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A 2000-3000 FT AGL DECK SHOWING
UP. KPIH...KSUN....AND KBYI SHOULD BE LARGELY VFR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. RS
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 200443 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1043 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...SEA FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS AS
ANTICIPATED PER METARS/SPORT HYBRID MODIS-VIIRS-GOES 11-3.9 MICRON
IMAGERY. NAM DETERMINISTIC MAINTAINS VISIBILITIES ABOVE 1 NM. SREF
PROBABILITIES LOW WITH REGARD TO VSBYS BELOW 1 NM. LOCAL WRF-ARW
DOES NOT LOWER VSBYS UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU. THUS WL NOT ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVSY. LOWER WIND OVER LAND OWING TO RECENT
METARS/EXPECTED CONDITIONS WHEN CONSIDERING 0-1KM NAM LAPSE RATES.
MAINTAINED SCA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SCEC OVER THE
NEARSHORE WHEN CONSIDERING SPORT SST COMPOSITE VALUES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE.

AVIATION...NLLJ ONCE AGAIN THE FOCUS OF AVIATION CONCERNS AS ITS
STRENGTH INCREASES LLWS AND FOCUSES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CIG
RESTRICTIONS RATHER THAN VIS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO OCNLY BECOME IFR
TOWARD DAYBREAK...THEN SLOWLY LIFT AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME
GUSTY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LOW
OVER S CA AND NRN BAJA CA THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGD TO MOV ACROSS NRN
MEXICO THROUGH FRI. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
CONTINUE TO USHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO S TX. EXPECTING A MIX OF
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH AREAS
OF FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE W CWA WHERE THE LLJ IS NOT AS STRONG. AM
NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH...IF ANY...DENSE FOG ACROSS S TX AS SFC WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED TO KEEP THE AIRMASS SLIGHTLY MIXED. THAT
BEING SAID...SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DVLP TONIGHT AND COULD ADVECT
INLAND AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. THE LLJ WILL ONCE AGAIN MIX TO
THE SFC ON FRI...HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW MUCH WEAKER LAPSE RATES
WHICH WILL INHIBIT THE MIXING. AM EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN
ON FRIDAY BUT WITH SPEEDS A COUPLE OF KNOTS LOWER THAN TODAY. MODELS
SHOW THE LLJ SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENING FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE TX
COAST AND OVER THE TX COASTAL WATERS BUT WITH MUCH LESS
MIXING...MAKING FOR A TRICKY WIND FCST. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN
CHCS TONIGHT OR FRI AS LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN A
CAPPING INVERSION. KEPT 5-10 POPS WITH THE MENTION OF -SHRA'S FRI
MORNING. RAIN CHCS THEN INCREASE FRI NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE
CWA WHERE THE CAP IS PROGD TO WEAKEN AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. KEPT THE 30 POP ACROSS THE NE BUT LOWERED TO 20 PERCENT FOR
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. FEEL RAIN CHCS WILL BE EVEN LOWER FOR THE
WESTERN CWA FRI NIGHT DUE TO LARGE CIN VALUES...BUT MODELS SHOW SOME
PRECIP ACROSS MEX AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE AREA. THUS KEPT THE 20
FOR THE WEST AS WELL. HAVE INTRODUCED -TSRA FOR THE NE CWA FOR LATE
FRI NIGHT DUE TO MODERATE CAPE...LEAST AMOUNT OF CIN/CAP...DEEPER
MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER RRQ OF APPROACHING JET.

MARINE...A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM MOD TO
STRONG THROUGH FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA'S
FRI MORNING AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT. MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN WILL BE
DEVELOPING SEA FOG TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME DENSE
AT TIMES. THIS POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THE REGION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE
DUG DEEP TO THE SOUTH...INTO CHIHUAHUA MEXICO...EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE WILL
EJECT NORTHEAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD THROUGH
THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE LINED ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...AS LOW LEVEL WIND
VEERS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE IN ADVANCE
OF COLD FRONT. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS SATURDAY MORNING...
TAPERING OFF TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
CWA. DESPITE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING SOUTHWEST...HAVE NOT COMPLETELY
REMOVED POPS OUT WEST IN THE MORNING...WITH THE THINKING OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FORCING MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE SITUATED IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF 135KT JET STREAK. DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MODEST INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE THESE
PARAMETERS RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SPC DAY THREE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT
RISK. THE CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND
TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ACTUALLY LAGS BEHIND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...DOWNSLOPING WEST-NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...BRUSH COUNTRY...AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND...LEADING TO DRY...WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN
SOME AREAS. FIRST DAY OF WINTER IS SATURDAY...AND WE MAY BE WITHIN
A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPS AT CRP/LRD/VCT.

MILD CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND GLANCING BLOW OF MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR.
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WIND DROPS OFF INLAND
TUESDAY MORNING WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY...LEADING TO
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INLAND. LIGHT FREEZE
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS
TUESDAY MORNING.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS AND MILD
CONDITIONS RETURNING CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ECMWF AND GFS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING.

FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BRUSH COUNTRY
MIDDAY SATURDAY AND TO THE COAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
AIR ACTUALLY LAGS BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...DOWNSLOPING
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...BRUSH
COUNTRY...AND SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...LEADING TO DRY...WARM
CONDITIONS. RH VALUES WILL DIP TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE...AND WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 MPH. WITH
FUELS NOW CURED FROM RECENT FREEZE AND FROST...THIS COULD RESULT IN
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY BEFORE THE SECOND
COLD FRONT ARRIVES...BUT WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ELEVATED AND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 68 79 68 83 52 / 10 10 20 30 0
VICTORIA 64 78 67 79 48 / 10 10 30 70 10
LAREDO 62 86 67 83 50 / 0 10 20 20 0
ALICE 64 84 68 85 51 / 10 10 20 20 0
ROCKPORT 65 73 68 78 51 / 10 10 30 50 10
COTULLA 58 82 64 79 46 / 0 10 20 30 0
KINGSVILLE 66 83 69 86 53 / 10 10 20 20 0
NAVY CORPUS 66 75 70 79 54 / 10 10 20 30 0

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

WC/87...SHORT TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KOAX 162123
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
323 PM CST MON DEC 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

MORNING MODIS IMAGERY WAS STILL SHOWING AREA OF SNOW COVER OVER THE
NRN FRINGE OF THE CWA WELL AS EXTREME SW IA AND EXTREME E-CNTRL NEB.
MODERATING TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS THOUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT MELTING BEFORE THE NEXT ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES...WHICH
IS THE MAIN ISSUE WITHIN THE NEAR TERM PDS.

PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE FLOW IS PROGGED OVER THE CONUS THRU MIDWEEK
AS AMPLIFIES RIDGE OVER THE ERN PAC BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE AND IS
REPLACED WITH POS TILT LONGWAVE TROF ENVELOPING THE WRN CONUS. GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SRN PORTION WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER
SRN CA BY THURSDAY WHILE NRN STREAM ENERGY RACES ACROSS CANADA/NRN
TIER STATES.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BEGIN ITS PLUNGE SWD INTO
THE LOWER 48 WED NIGHT THEN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY. TIME-
SERIES/METEOGRAM SFC TEMP/WIND ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE BNDRY SHOULD BE PUSHING THRU THE OMAHA METRO SOMETIME
AROUND NOON WITH THE BRUNT OF CAA SHORTLY AFTER. AS A MATTER OF
FACT...NON-DIURNAL SITUATION A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH FALLING
TEMPS ALLOWING FOR POTENTIAL MIX OF FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN.
FORTUNATELY ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW...THUS NO
REAL THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WHERE SN ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS.

DEE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

...A COUPLE OF SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...A 1029MB HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS IN. HAVE
SOME FREEZING PRECIP/SLEET/SNOW. AGAIN...ANY AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE
LIGHT. COLD HIGHS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...BUT
LOOK TO BE BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
WEAKENS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
COUNTIES WITH FLURRIES FARTHER NORTH. ANOTHER 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY...RETREATING TO THE EAST MONDAY.

ZAPOTOCNY

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KOFK THROUGH
ABOUT 20Z.

DEWALD

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

99/99

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KBUF 070255
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
955 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT.
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES REGION...WITH NO SNOW OR ONLY FLURRIES TOWARD THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. MEAGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING AS HIGH PRESSURE
PROVIDES THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
DISPLAY THE NORTHWARD EXTEND OF THE SHIELD OF SNOW NOW REACHING THE
HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO...AND INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER
LAKES REGION. THE HEAVIEST OF SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GENESEE VALLEY...WITH LIGHTER SNOW FARTHER WEST INTO OHIO. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE GREATEST ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
UPWARDS TO 3-4 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY.

ELSEWHERE EXPECT LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA
FRONTIER...AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TO AROUND -13C BY MORNING. HERE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
GREATER AND 2 TO 3 INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE WNW
ALOFT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT...LIMITING OR EVEN ELIMINATING ANY CHANCE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ERIE.

LATER OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE ALOFT
LATER AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
FROM ABOUT KFZY INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL. A SPECIAL
12Z 1.3KM RUN OF THE NAM FIRE WX NESTED RUN ALONG WITH OTHER HIGH
RES RUNS SHOW THIS IDEA NICELY...WITH SOME STREAMERS LATE IN THE DAY
IN ROUGHLY THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. ANY CONNECTION TO THE GEORGIAN
BAY REMAINS JUST OUT OF REACH AND NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER BY THE END OF THE DAY. IT IS WORTHY OF NOTING THAT THE MODIS
ESTIMATED LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 5C WARMER OVER THE EASTERN END
OF THE LAKE COMPARED TO THE WESTERN END. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE JUST A BIT MORE LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND EVENTUAL LIFT
OVER THE EASTERN SHORELINE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH STRONG SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER
AIR BUILDING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE A LINGERING
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...THESE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED AND FAIRLY MINIMAL IN SCOPE GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION
HEIGHTS OF 5-6 KFT...AND A RATHER LIMITED SNOW GROWTH REGION/LESS
THAN IDEAL MOISTURE BELOW THE CAPPING INVERSION. DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...AN EVEN LESS FAVORABLE SETUP SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES AT
WORST...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA JUST QUIET...DRY...AND COLD.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM 10-15 ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY...TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.

ON SUNDAY...ANY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD GET QUICKLY SQUELCHED DURING THE MORNING THANKS TO A FURTHER
LOWERING OF THE CAP AND THE WEAKENING/INCREASINGLY SHEARED LOW LEVEL
FLOW. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...ALBEIT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN SATURDAY/S...AND
GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 30 AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A COMPLEX AND DOUBLE-BARRELED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...
WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO
JAMES BAY...AND A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW LIFTING FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST TO JUST OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD. WHILE ALL GUIDANCE PACKAGES
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE BEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING/
MOISTURE AND CONSEQUENTLY THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHEAST AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
TRACKS...THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CONNECTING SURFACE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD HELP FORCE A ROUND OF MUCH
LIGHTER BUT STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
AREA...WITH THE BULK OF THIS COMING BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS
A SURGE OF DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...A
MODEL QPF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A TOTAL OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF PRECIP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL TENTH
OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
PLAN VIEWS SUGGEST THE PRECIP STARTING OFF AS ALL SNOW SUNDAY
EVENING...BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND THEN TO
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING. GIVEN THAT PRECIP
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ALSO THAT THE WINDOW FOR
FREEZING PRECIP LOOKS TO BE RATHER BRIEF...FEEL THAT IT/S BEST TO
JUST CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTING THIS POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HWO AND HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY...THOUGH ONE MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED
FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT SUNDAY NIGHT/S LOWS TO COME FAIRLY EARLY IN
THE NIGHT...WITH STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN FORCING READINGS TO
RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...HIGHS SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40
BETWEEN LATE MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
FALLING BACK SOME DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

BY MONDAY EVENING...OUR AIRMASS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
LAKE RESPONSE NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND WILL CONTINUE TO GET EVEN
COLDER THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER A STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
THIS STATED...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL BE
SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND WILL
PRODUCE BOTH A FAIRLY LOW CAP OF AROUND 4-5 KFT AND NOTABLE DRYING
BELOW THE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
LIMITED IN NATURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CONFINED POPS NORTHEAST
OF THE LAKES TO THE LOW-MID CHANCE RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
REST OF THE AREA REMAINING MAINLY DRY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP BACK TO THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTING FROM HUDSON BAY TO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -15C TUESDAY AND TO -18C/-20C BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SUCH
A PATTERN IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE LOOKS TO
BECOME MOST FAVORABLE SOMETIME FROM LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPTICK IN BACKGROUND
SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE.

AT THIS STILL-DISTANT JUNCTURE...DEPICTING THE EXACT LOCATION AND
INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AT ANY GIVEN POINT IN TIME
REMAINS A HIGHLY DIFFICULT EXERCISE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF NUMEROUS
SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...
WHICH WILL PRODUCE UNDULATIONS IN THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW THAT
SUBSEQUENTLY AFFECT BOTH BAND PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY. THIS
STATED...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT ON
DEPICTING THE MOST NOTEWORTHY OF THESE PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SUGGESTIONS OF A MORE
STEADY-STATE WESTERLY FLOW POTENTIALLY SETTING UP AFTER THAT TIME.
STAY TUNED!

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...THE PERIOD SHOULD BE LARGELY
CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY DRY AND COLDER WEATHER...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
SETTLING INTO THE LOWER-MID 20S FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALLING OFF INTO THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE.
WHILE SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT...EXPECT THAT READINGS
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION TO START
THE TAF CYCLE...HOWEVER EXPECT CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DROP TO IFR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE COMING HOURS. LIGHT...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OVERNIGHT...WHILE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE STORM...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BRUSH BY THE
KBUF/KIAG/KROC AIRFIELDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE SHIELD
OF SNOW WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF THE KART AIRFIELD. THE WIDESPREAD
SNOW WILL END IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND LIKELY TO THE EAST OF ROCHESTER AND SOUTH OF
WATERTOWN.

THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE 5 TAF SITES EXPECT MAINLY VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS...WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. THESE WINDS
AT TIMES MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND
NEIGHBORING TAF SITES JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT IFR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EAST OF THE LAKES.

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN WAVES THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AS
WINDS BECOME NEAR 20 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO WAVES WILL CREST OVER 4
FEET...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AND
REMAINING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW WAVES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE ERIE.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ012>014-
019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR LOZ045.

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS/ZAFF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KBUF 062039
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
339 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CAN BE FOUND OVER THE MOST OF NORTH AMERICA
WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET LIFTING MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US. THERE ARE SEVERAL EMBEDDED
JET STREAKS WITHIN THE LARGE JET. THE ONE OF INTEREST FOR THIS
EVENING IS CENTERED OVER MO...AND WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. WESTERN NY WILL BE ON THE NW
FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF
SNOW OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES
REGION. A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS
EDGING INTO THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES...WITH SNOW RANGING BETWEEN
NIL OVER NIAGARA AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...UP TO 6 INCHES OR SO OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST ALLEGANY COUNTY CLOSEST TO BETTER LIFT. A REALLY
QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST MODELS...THE 15Z SREF AND LATEST
HRRR...SHOWS A DECREASING TREND IN QPF...SO CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE
A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE. ON THE OTHER HAND...SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND FLUFFY...SO EXPECT FAIRLY HIGH SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS DESPITE A QPF
OF ABOUT .3 OR LESS.

THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED...WITH LIGHT SNOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING...INCREASING IN INTENSITY TO ABOUT AN
INCH/HR FOR 2 OR 3 HOURS...THEN TAPERING OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST WILL BEFORE DAWN SATURDAY. JUST TO
REITERATE...THE MAJOR METRO AREAS /KBUF-KROC/ ARE EXPECTED TO GET
ONLY A GLANCING BLOW WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION.

ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
AS COLDER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE FLOW
WILL BE WNW ALOFT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT...LIMITING OR EVEN ELIMINATING
ANY CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ERIE.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK STREAMERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER ANY LOCATION DURING THE DAY. THERE MAY BE A
BIT MORE MOISTURE ALOFT LATER AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BETTER CHANCES
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM ABOUT KFZY INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
TUG HILL. A SPECIAL 12Z 1.3KM RUN OF THE NAM FIRE WX NESTED RUN
ALONG WITH OTHER HIGH RES RUNS SHOW THIS IDEA NICELY...WITH SOME
STREAMERS LATE IN THE DAY IN ROUGHLY THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. ANY
CONNECTION TO THE GEORGIAN BAY REMAINS JUST OUT OF REACH AND NEAR
THE MOUTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER BY THE END OF THE DAY. IT IS
WORTHY OF NOTING THE THE MODIS ESTIMATED LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT
5C WARMER OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE COMPARED TO THE WESTERN
END. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST A BIT MORE LAND BREEZE
CONVERGENCE AND EVENTUAL LIFT OVER THE EASTERN SHORELINE. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOW THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NY WILL SPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER TO
WESTERN FINGER LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT AN AREA FROM
ABOUT KJHW TO ABOUT OR SOUTH OF KFZY. THEN EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT ON A NW FLOW FOR SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT IFR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EAST OF THE LAKES.

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS ONLY A WEAK TO MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ012>014-
019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KGRB 052044 CCA
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
240 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

REMAINING CLOUDS OVER NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
SHOULD COME TO AN END. ASOS UNITS AT AIRPORTS IN WAUSAU AND
RHINELANDER HAVE BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB REPORTING BLOWING SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS WHILE THE AWOS UNITS AT EAGLE
RIVER...ARBORVITAE AND MANITOWISH WATERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING HAZE
AS THEY DO NOT HAVE THE ABILITY TO REPORT BLOWING SNOW. THE GUSTY
WEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO BLOWING
SNOW IN THE NORTH...BUT A STEADY BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE AND HELP
PRODUCE BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET NEAR OR BELOW ZERO WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER
WITH LOWS OF ZERO TO 10 ABOVE WHERE THERE IS BARE GROUND. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. A
VERY NICE PICTURE OF THE SNOW COVER OVER WISCONSIN CAN BE OBTAINED
AT GE.SSEC.WISC.EDU/MODIS-TODAY/ (USE SMALL LETTERS).

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE NOT AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO INCREASING
CLOUDS.

THINGS TURN VERY INTERESTING ON SUNDAY AN SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AREA WILL BE IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET STREAK. ALSO...WEAK 850MB WARM
ADVECTION NOTED ON THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MAIN
CONCERN IS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAKE
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB
TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE -12 C TO -14 C...WHILE LAKE TEMPERATURES
ARE AROUND +3C. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW BAND TO
MOVE NORTHWEST OFF THE LAKE INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. EVEN IF HEAVY
SNOW BAND DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE LAKESHORE. PINPOINTING
WHERE HEAVIEST TOTALS ALONG THE LAKE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR
OUT. THINKING AT LEAST 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LAKE...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS RECEIVED A FOOT IF HEAVY SNOW
BAND SETS UP. DID INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE
LAKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD COME
TO AN END BY 12Z MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
ONGOING. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...THUS SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH/SOUTH
ROADS.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK. ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME MODERATION OF THE ARCTIC
AIR BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES
LOOKED REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND
THERE. &&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

MVFR CIGS NORTHWEST OF A WAUSAU TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND DRIFTING
SNOW. MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE WITH GUSTY WEST SURFACE WINDS. GOOD
FLYING WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND ONLY SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
WIZ005-010-011-018-019-030.
&&

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KGRB 052040
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
240 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

REMAINING CLOUDS OVER NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
SHOULD COME TO AN END. ASOS UNITS AT AIRPORTS IN WAUSAU AND
RHINELANDER HAVE BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB REPORTING BLOWING SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS WHILE THE AWOS UNITS AT EAGLE
RIVER...ARBORVITAE AND MANITOWISH WATERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING HAZE
AS THEY DO NOT HAVE THE ABILITY TO REPORT BLOWING SNOW. THE GUSTY
WEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO BLOWING
SNOW IN THE NORTH...BUT A STEADY BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE AND HELP PRODUCE
BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET NEAR OR BELOW ZERO WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER WITH LOWS
OF ZERO TO 10 ABOVE WHERE THERE IS BARE GROUND. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. A VERY NICE
PICTURE OF THE SNOW COVER OVER WISCONSIN CAN BE OBTAINED AT
GE.SSEC.WISC.EDU/MODIS-TODAY/.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

THINGS TURN VERY INTERESTING ON SUNDAY AN SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AREA WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET STREAK. ALSO...WEAK 850MB WARM ADVECTION NOTED ON THE
MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN IS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAKE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE -12 C TO
-14 C...WHILE LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND +3C. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW BAND TO MOVE NORTHWEST OFF THE LAKE INTO
EASTERN WISCONSIN. EVEN IF HEAVY SNOW BAND DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOWFALL TOTALS
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. PINPOINTING WHERE HEAVIEST TOTALS ALONG THE
LAKE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT. THINKING AT LEAST 4 TO 8
INCHES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LAKE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW SPOTS RECEIVED A FOOT IF HEAVY SNOW BAND SETS UP. DID INCLUDE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 12Z MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...THUS SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY ON NORTH/SOUTH ROADS.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK. ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME MODERATION OF THE ARCTIC
AIR BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOKED
REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
WIZ005-010-011-018-019-030.
&&

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK67 PAJK 051426
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
526 AM AKST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
GULF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER
THE YUKON THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO WEST
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA BY TONIGHT. THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL WEAKEN AS THIS OCCURS.

THE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY GRADIENT RESULTED IN A RAPID INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL OVERNIGHT. AS THE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING THE STRONG
NORTHERLIES ARE PUSHING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS. STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE SKAGWAY AND HAINES AREAS.
30 TO 35 KTS OF CROSS BARRIER FLOW IN THE JUNEAU AREA WILL RESULT
IN SOME GUSTY WINDS DOWNTOWN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A LITTLE
SKEPTICAL THAT WE WILL SEE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 MPH BUT DO FEEL
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH DURING THE DAY
SO KEPT THE INHERITED STRONG WIND HEADLINE. AS THE HIGH SLIDES
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE ON
THE DIMINISHING TREND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
NORTHEASTERLY OUTFLOW WIND INCREASING THROUGH THE CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT PROBLEMATIC THIS MORNING AS WARMER AIR
ALOFT IS CAUSING SOME WILD FLUCTUATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. THE HAINES AIRPORT HAS BEEN RISING INTO THE LOW 30S
WHEN THE WIND GETS GUSTY AND THE WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN THEN
FALLING BACK INTO THE MID 20S AS THE WIND LIGHTENS UP. SAME HAS
BEEN THE CASE IN JUNEAU WHERE TEMPERATURES DOWNTOWN HAVE JUMPED
FROM THE MID 20S INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THESE
FLUCTUATIONS SHOULD LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS HAS CAUSED FOR SOME WIDE RANGES IN
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN SOME ZONES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS LOWS TONIGHT WILL HAVE WIDE RANGES WITH WIND SHELTERED
AREAS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ARE SHOWING UP IN MORNING OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY
MODIS RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY AND APPEARS VERY LOCALIZED. THE LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS SHARPENED AND TURNED FLOW MORE NORTHERLY
INSTEAD OF THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION YESTERDAY. ALSO CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER WESTERN BC HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

USED THE ECMWF AND LOCAL WRF MODEL FOR UPDATES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. ECMWF WAS USED MAINLY FOR THE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE
INNER CHANNELS AS IT BEST INITIALIZED PRESSURE GRADIENTS. USED THE
LOCAL WRF TO UPDATE WINDS IN THE GULF AS ITS SUPERIOR RESOLUTION
ALLOWED FOR OUTFLOW WINDS TO BE CAPTURED. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE ON STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA STILL A MAJOR PLAYER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COMBINATION
OF LOWS AND TROUGH WEAKEN THE HIGH DOWN TO BIT PLAYER THAT CAN BE
MANEUVERED ABOUT BY THE LOWS/STORMS IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO HAVE ENDED BY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE IS MORE CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLE AREAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY TO
TUESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SITUATION VARY SOME WITH THIS
MINOR FEATURE MAKING TRACKING AND PREDICTION DIFFICULT.

THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT
THERE WILL BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER EVEN THESE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENT
THAT MOST OF MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
ENSEMBLE MEANS. SINCE THERE WAS NOT A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
THAT WILL REMOVE THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS IS
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL OF A HEAVIER SNOW EVENT OR A MIX FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE. WILL BE KEEPING AN WATCH ON THIS
SYSTEM THE REST OF MY SHIFTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-025.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-034-035.

TPS/BEZENEK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KMFR 031226
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
426 AM PST TUE DEC 3 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, ROAD CAMERAS, AND SPORT MODIS-VIRRS
NIGHTTIME RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES
AND SNOW FLURRIES ARE STILL FALLING, AT MOST, ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WERE SLOW TO FALL BELOW THE 5000
FOOT ELEVATION LEVEL YESTERDAY, SO MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION
WAS ABOVE THAT LEVEL. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR THAT MANY AREAS THAT
USUALLY SHOULD BE GETTING SNOW BY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR SUCH AS
HIGHWAY 140 NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS LIKELY RECEIVED UP TO A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW LAST EVENING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY STILL COLDER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AS A 500MB TEMPERATURE OF -24C ON THE MEDFORD SOUNDING THIS
MORNING DROPS TO AROUND -31C. A TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS THIS COLD AIR MOVES IN WILL PACK
MOST OF WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE IT HAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SIDE. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS CENTERED IN THE WARNER MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ALSO SOME POSSIBLE IN THE CASCADES. A
FEW FLURRIES COULD REACH TO WEST SIDE VALLEY FLOORS, BUT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE NO PRECIPITATION.

WITH FRESH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A DRY AIR MASS ARRIVING FROM
THE NORTHEAST, TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
FOR WEST SIDE VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS MEDFORD IT COULD BE AS WARM
AS THE LOW 20S THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS TO AS COLD AS THE LOWER
TEENS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE HANGS AROUND AND WHETHER OR
NOT WE FOG IN. AT THIS POINT EXPECT SOME FOG AND TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 17F THURSDAY MORNING, COLDER IN OUTLYING
AREAS. ALL ACROSS THE AREA IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE SORT OF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR DAILY RECORD VALUES AND CAPABLE OF
FREEZING PIPES.

EXTENDED COLD WEATHER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
WHAT COULD BE A VERY MESSY FRIDAY FOR THE WEST SIDE. AT THIS POINT
THE NAM12 IS THE ODD MODEL OUT IN NOT DEPICTING A PRECIPITATING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE REMAINED
QUITE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD SYSTEM INTO THE AREA. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THIS HIGH CLOUD WILL
MODULATE HOW COLD THE VALLEYS ARE WHEN THE FRIDAY SYSTEM ARRIVES.
SIMILAR PAST SITUATIONS HAVE RESULTED IN COLD AIR REMAINING IN
PLACE AND WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO VALLEY FLOORS. HOWEVER, SOME
GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT A BRIEF SURGE IN SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUCH THAT MANY VALLEYS WOULD WARM ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LIKELY ABOVE
2000 FEET AND POSSIBLE BELOW THIS LEVEL. STAY TUNED AS WE DO OUR
BEST TO PROVIDE WHAT DETAILS CAN BE SURMISED.

THEREAFTER, THERE IS GROWING CONSENSUS AND REASONING IN THE LONGER
RANGE IN EXPECTING THAT WET SYSTEMS WITH SNOW LEVELS AT OR BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS SHOULD ARRIVE DURING WEEK TWO. THUS, IT
APPEARS WINTER HAS ARRIVED AND IS PLANNING ON STICKING AROUND IN
TERMS OF THE WEATHER, NOT JUST ON THE CALENDER! BTL

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 03/06Z TAF CYCLE.

A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. FREEZING LEVELS HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND AS A RESULT...THE SHOWERS HAVE TURNED TO MOSTLY
SNOW...EVEN ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...SHOWERS WILL END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOG/STRATUS TO FORM BRIEFLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE UMPQUA AND
ROGUE VALLEYS. IT WILL STAY MIXED LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT THIS
POSSIBILITY FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. AFTER ANY MORNING STRATUS/FOG
DISSIPATES...VFR AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT VIRTUALLY
ALL LOCATIONS. BPN

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR ORZ021-022.
FREEZE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ021-022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING ABOVE
2000 FEET FOR FOR ORZ025.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ370.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ376.

BTL/BTL/SBN

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXHW60 PHFO 290150
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
350 PM HST THU NOV 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP FAIR
SKIES LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE ISLANDS...TURNING OUR WINDS SOUTHERLY AND
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...BRINGING
A THREAT FOR HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS TO THOSE ISLANDS OVER
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACKGROUND FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS HAS ALREADY TURNED SSE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND SE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. THE 00Z PHLI
SOUNDING SHOWS THE MID-LEVELS ALREADY BEGINNING TO COOL AND THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STARTING TO LIFT AND WEAKEN. NEVERTHELESS...
THE LATEST MODIS PASS SHOWS THE AIRMASS OVER THE ISLANDS REMAINS
QUITE DRY WITH PW RANGING FROM 0.75-1 INCH...SO ALL 4 RADARS ARE
VIRTUALLY PPINE THIS HOUR.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ABOUT 400 MILES TO THE NW OF KAUAI WILL
GET AN EASTWARD NUDGE TOWARD THE ISLANDS AS A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT ON FRI. THE FRONT WILL HAVE STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FROM A SHARP TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH EASTWARD...SPREADING
INCREASINGLY COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL HELP TO
SPARK SOME HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS BOTH ALONG THE
FRONT...AND IN PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BANDS. THE TIMING ON THIS
LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR KAUAI.

INITIALLY THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
STARTING LATER SAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOW ENOUGH SO THAT THE KONA WINDS AHEAD OF IT BEGIN TO TAP INTO
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE ITCZ AND SURGE IT NORTH ALONG THE
FRONT. IN ADDITION...A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
THE ISLANDS SAT NIGHT...WITH NEW DEEP CONVECTION BLOWING UP OVER
THE ISLANDS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL STILL APPEARS TO BE
NEAR THE GARDEN ISLE...THOUGH IF THE FRONT SURGES FARTHER TO THE E
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OAHU MIGHT SEE HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS
SAT OR SUN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST.
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR
KAUAI...BUT MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT LATER TO OAHU. THE REMAINING
ISLANDS SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS...BUT WILL BE LARGELY
REMOVED FROM THE DESTABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LOW.

THE MODEL SHOW A HEALTHY DOSE OF KONA WINDS AS WELL JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...PICKING UP TO 15-20 KT SURFACE BACKGROUND FLOW. THE
UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS 925 MB WINDS OF
35-40 KT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ON THE N SHORE OF KAUAI AND 30-35 KT
ON OAHU STARTING FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ADJUSTED WIND GUST
GRIDS EARLIER IN THESE AREAS TO BE CLOSER TO THESE VALUES. LOOKS
A BIT SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THOSE SPOTS BUT WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT THE STRONGER KONA
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THE VOG FROM BECOMING TOO CONCENTRATED OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT GRADUALLY WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPING TO SUPPORT THE FRONT MOVES AWAY. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING REBUILDS NEAR THE ISLANDS AND SO EXPECTING THINGS TO
STABILIZE DURING THAT TIME.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH LIGHT SE FLOW. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SOME OVER
KAUAI AND OAHU TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED MVFR AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. NO AIRMETS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST 10Z.

.MARINE...
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT BUOY 51101 HAS RISEN TO 11 FEET. SURF
AND SEAS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD ON N AND W FACING SHORES...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES /SCA/ IN WATERS EXPOSED TO THE LARGE NW SWELL. AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS
SUCH AS THE KAULAKAHI CHANNEL DUE TO THE INCREASING KONA WINDS.
THE COMBINATION OF KONA WINDS AND LINGERING NW SWELL WILL MAKE FOR
ROUGH AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR BOATERS.

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH
SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST FRIDAY
FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD
WATERS.

$$
R BALLARD...DISCUSSION/MARINE
M BALLARD...AVIATION

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXHW60 PHFO 282028
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1025 AM HST THU NOV 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT
TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
ISLANDS...TURNING OUR WINDS SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...BRINGING A THREAT FOR HEAVY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSHOWERS TO THOSE ISLANDS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP...BUT THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AND 1153Z MODIS PASS SHOWED THE
AIRMASS WAS ON THE DRY SIDE OF NORMAL OVER THE STATE...ALONG WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION SLOPING FROM NEAR 5500 FEET NEAR PHLI TO 7000 FEET
NEAR PHTO. EXPECTING PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OWING TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE NATURE OF THE CURRENT
AIRMASS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ON
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE LEE OF MOLOKAI AND PUSH NW TOWARD OAHU
THIS AFTERNOON...A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE.

THE BACKGROUND FLOW FROM THE SE WILL BRING VOG UP OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS STARTING TODAY...AND THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO FRI.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...AND THE
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS WILL HELP TO DISPERSE THE VOG SOMEWHAT ON
FRIDAY.

AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY START TO INCREASE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
START TO FORM IN THE MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ZONES TO THE LEE OF THE
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS IN ANY PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND A FEW OF
THESE COULD MOVE UP OVER THE WESTERN MAIN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO FRI.

STARTING LATER FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC SCALE CONVERGENCE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE ISLANDS...WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR
BEGINNING TO NUDGE IN FROM THE W. AS WAS DISCUSSED OVERNIGHT...THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SO WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BACK
OFF ON THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR OAHU...BUT THIS STILL LOOKS OK FOR KAUAI.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WEAKENS AT FIRST AFTER IT ARRIVES...THE 00Z RUNS
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...INCLUDING GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND
NAVEGEM ALL SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE...SHOWING THE STALLED FRONT
BEING REINVIGORATED BY A RATHER STRONG UPPER LOW TO THE NW OF THE
ISLANDS BY SUNDAY WITH A SIZABLE NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND KAUAI AND OAHU. THIS SCENARIO HAS
NOT BACKED OFF MUCH IN THE 12Z RUNS...AND SO ALTHOUGH THIS HEAVY
RAIN EVENT FOR KAUAI AND POSSIBLY OAHU NOW LOOKS TO START LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ENVISIONED...IT MIGHT STILL PAN OUT. LARGE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT NECESSITATE WAITING A
LITTLE LONGER FOR THE GUIDANCE TO LOCK IN BEFORE ISSUING A WATCH. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUCH OF A THREAT
AT ALL TO MAUI COUNTY OR THE BIG ISLAND AT THIS POINT.

THE MODEL SHOW A HEALTHY DOSE OF KONA WINDS AS WELL JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...PICKING UP TO 15-20 KT SURFACE BACKGROUND FLOW. THE
UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS 925 MB WINDS OF
35-40 KT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ON THE N SHORE OF KAUAI AND 30-35 KT
ON OAHU STARTING FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE WIND
GUST GRIDS IN THESE AREAS TO BE CLOSER TO THESE VALUES. LOOKS A BIT
SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THOSE SPOTS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW. CLOUDS WILL BUILD UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TODAY...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITY. NO AIRMETS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z.

.MARINE...
THE LARGE 310 DEGREE SWELL JUST ARRIVED AT BUOY 51101 AS OF 20Z.
SURF IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER END OF SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN SOME SPOTS FOR N AND W FACING SHORES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA NEAR KAUAI IN ANTICIPATION OF SEAS AT THE
10 FT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. WILL WATCH THE BUOY CAREFULLY TO SEE IF
ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE TO EITHER ADVISORY.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KONA WINDS WILL APPROACH THE
25 KT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY WINDY AREAS AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...PARTICULARLY IN THE KAULAKAHI CHANNEL. EVEN
THOUGH THE SWELL WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL LIKELY NEED
TO EXPAND/EXTEND THE SCA TO COVER THESE AREAS. THE COMBINATION OF
KONA WINDS AND LINGERING NW SWELL WILL MAKE FOR ROUGH CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR N AND W FACING SHORES OF
NIIHAU...KAUAI...AND OAHU...AND FOR N FACING SHORES OF MOLOKAI AND
MAUI.

$$
R BALLARD...DISCUSSION/MARINE
M BALLARD...AVIATION

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KBRO 262038
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
238 PM CST TUE NOV 26 2013

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A MID LEVEL TROUGH
SLIDING EAST IS NOW ALL BUT HISTORY FOR THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS IN FRONT OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH
SOME UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER ON TAP...WITH NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE VERY BORDERLINE...AND OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON PULLING THE TRIGGER FOR NOW. NEXT SHIFT CAN WATCH WIND AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS TONIGHT. STUCK WITH
THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...WHICH MIRRORED GUIDANCE.

TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A VERY
NICE DAY OTHERWISE IN STORE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO BE UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH VERY LITTLE THAT WILL BE
MUCH DIFFERENT IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN TONIGHT THOUGH...AND THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF A FREEZE IN THE
RURAL AREAS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW FREEZING
FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL HELP STRETCH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. CONVERGENCE ALOFT WILL COUPLE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHEAST WINDS TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY...BOTH FROM A HUMIDITY AND
A PRECIP STANDPOINT. SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AND THE ONGOING COOLER AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THAT SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE AND EASTERLY. THE GULF AIRMASS IS
PRETTY WORKED OVER SO DEWPOINT/MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL TAKE A WHILE
BUT EXPECT DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE STARTED AN UPWARD TREND BY LATER IN
THE DAY AND A FEW CU WILL PROBABLY START TO BUBBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S.

DATA FROM A RECENT MODIS POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE PASS AND NEARSHORE
TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FRONT AND PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS
HAVE DRASTICALLY REDUCED THE TEMPERATURE OF THE NEARSHORE GULF OF
MEXICO DUE TO UPWELLING. THE SATELLITE SUGGESTS THE MORE DRASTIC
DEPARTURE IS WITHIN 5 TO 15 MILES OF THE COASTLINE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL. WITH EASTERLY WINDS PROJECTED TO FLOW OVER THE GRADIENT OF
RELATIVELY WARM...76F ACCORDING TO BUOY 20...OFFSHORE WATER...TO THE
RELATIVELY COLD NEARSHORE WATER...A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR SEA
ADVECTION FOG EXISTS. ADDED FOG TO THE OVERNIGHT GROUP THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT IN LOCALIZED AREAS THE TIME OF DAY MAY NOT
MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE REGARDING FOG FORMATION WITH PARTS OF
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING
FOG FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND OUR LOW LAYER FLOW RESPONDS BY BECOMING MORE DUE
SOUTHERLY. THIS HELPS FURTHER A GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING. NOTED AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
THE TROUGH PASSES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL. THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
LOW LAYER REFLECTION IS ALSO APPARENT AND KEPT THE WINDS COMING OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST AS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL GULF INTENSIFIES
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOWS ANOTHER FAIRLY
STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BUT THE ONLY
IMPACT BY TUESDAY ARE PERHAPS SOME INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS. BY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON THE GULF
THROUGH 6 PM...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS VERIFYING AT THE OFFSHORE BUOY.
THE GALE WARNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS
EVENING AT SOME POINT AS WINDS DECREASE. CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
OVER THE AREA. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
BY EARLY THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
PERIODS OF SEA FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR FOG WILL BE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MARINERS. MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 41 57 40 61 / 0 0 0 10
BROWNSVILLE 38 58 38 63 / 0 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 36 59 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 40 60 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 36 60 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 47 58 44 61 / 0 0 0 10

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
135.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...68-GIBBS
UPPER AIR/GRAPHICAST...MARTINEZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KCHS 122332
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
632 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK WHILE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST. GULF MOISTURE
AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA IN
PIECES...A TYPICAL CHARACTERISTIC AS COLD AIR MASSES INTERACT
WITH THE HIGHEST HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
WIND SHIFT IS MOVING STEADILY SOUTH AND HAS CLEARED THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AREA AS OF 12/23Z WHILE THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD...
ARCTIC AIR IS RUNNING ABOUT 1-2 HOURS BEHIND. THERMAL DECLINES
WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
AND INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION INITIATES. ALREADY SEEING
IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC RISES IN EXCESS OF 5MB/3HRS OVER NORTH
CAROLINA--A TESTAMENT TO THE POTENCY OF THE POST FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
AT THE BEACHES. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A BRIEF FREEZE COULD
OCCUR ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS MUCH AS NORTHERN BERKELEY COUNTY AS
WELL AS PARTS OF JENKINS-SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO HOIST A FREEZE
WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING...HOWEVER.

A VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING A BROAD
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND
PARTS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PUSH THIS
ACTIVITY STEADILY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS
NORTH OF I-26 FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT. RAP THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SLEET COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN FROM
ROUGHLY 03-06Z...BUT THIS REALLY SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO TOO MUCH
SHOULD IT OCCUR. THE RAIN HAS MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW WEST OF
RALEIGH/DURHAM THIS EVENING WITHIN CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION RATES...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE THE
MAIN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL SCOUR OUT THIS FAR SOUTH SO LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH A LITTLE SLEET MIXED IN IS FAVORED OVER A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SLEET FOR
AREAS NORTH OF I-26 WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. POPS WILL BE
CAPPED AT 20 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
GOING WIND ADVISORY LOOKS FINE FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS
BERKELEY COUNTY WHERE NORTH WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40-45
MPH ARE LIKELY.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BLAST UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE 20 PLUS DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. DESPITE SUNNY
SKIES...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. IN ADDITION...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR LAKE MOULTRIE.
THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR BERKELEY AND
COASTAL COUNTIES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER OFFSHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE ABNORMALLY COLD TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT DEVELOPS. COLD ADVECTION WILL INITIALLY
PERSIST EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT COASTAL GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT SEASONAL NORMALS...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES AND LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF STATES SPREADS
NORTHWARD. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AS INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PROVIDE SOME INSULATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND CLEARER SKIES
PERSIST ACROSS TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE...SHOWCASE THIS TEMPERATURE
TREND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN AND INLAND LOCATIONS
AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES FURTHER SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST.
ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION...A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO NUDGE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP SHOP TO OUR WEST WITH A SERIES OF
VORTS MOVING THROUGH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHICH IS A
TYPICAL COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO FOR US. WE EXPECT SOMEWHAT COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
GULF MOISTURE MOVING IN ALOFT. AT A MINIMUM WE ARE LOOKING AT
PROLONGED CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH MODELS ARE
SPITTING OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER LAND FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
BUMPED UP POPS A TAD THOUGH ARE NOT GOING WHOLE HOG UNTIL THERE IS
MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY SINCE THE TIMING OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IS
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. A STRONG WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
OR TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED KCHS AND WILL MOVE THROUGH KSAV
SHORTLY. WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY 02Z AT KCHS AND 04Z
AT KSAV WITH GUSTS NEARING 30 KT. CIGS WILL LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY
WITH MARGINAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BRIEFLY FROM 04-07Z AT KCHS AS AN
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION PIVOTS NORTH OF THE TERMINAL. WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH GUSTY WINDS LINGERING
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE
TO A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING.

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE SET FOR A DANGEROUS AND WIDESPREAD GALE
EVENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE ARCTIC
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. SOLID
GALES APPEAR LIKELY FOR ALL MARINE LEGS WITH WINDS TOPPING 30-35
KT WITH GUSTS 40-45 KT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 35-40 KT WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG. ALREADY SEEING WINDS GUSTING
OVER 40 KT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. GALE WARNINGS ARE
IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS AND WILL WILL BE MAINTAINED. THERE IS
CONCERN THAT FREQUENT GUSTS TO STORM FORCE COULD OCCUR ALONG THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE 1KM MODIS
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA SHOWED THE WESTERN WALL STREAM IS
LURKING. RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AS MUCH AS 45-50 KT OF WIND WILL
RESIDE WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER AND GIVEN THE COUNTER FLOW
CONDITIONS THAT WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE GULF STREAM...MUCH OF THIS
WIND COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A STORM WARNING FOR THIS CYCLE. PREFER TO MONITOR UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS OFF NORTH CAROLINA THAT RESIDE WITHIN/NEAR THE
WESTERN WALL TO SEE HOW WINDS RESPOND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WEDNESDAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND
DANGEROUS SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL SLOWLY NUDGE FURTHER OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING GALES TO
END IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...GALES ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE HARBOR WILL EASILY LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA BEFORE SLIPPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS COULD STILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW.

.CLIMATE...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE
REGION. SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES COULD END UP WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD LOW FOR
THE DATE. A SUMMARY OF MIDWEEK RECORDS FOLLOWS.

WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 13 RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
CHS 52F...1977
SAV 50F...1920
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON 49F...1920

THURSDAY NOVEMBER 14 RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES...
CHS 27F...1981
SAV 28F...1968
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON 36F...1963

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ045-048>052.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ330.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KRLX 060526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1226 AM EST WED NOV 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A
WARMER AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TWEAKED SKY AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO BE CLOSER TO LATEST
SFC OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGES. INCREASED CLOUDS MAINLY OVER
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES AS LOW STRATUS HAVE FORMED PER
MODIS 1KM REMOTE SENSING. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
930 PM UPDATE...
COOLED THE VALLEYS PER CURRENT TRENDS IN PART VIA BLENDING IN
BIAS CORRECTED VERSIONS OF THE ADJMAV AND THE ECMWF. ALSO ALLOWED
LOW CLOUDS TO ENCROACH A BIT FARTHER WWD IN SE WV TOWARD DAWN.
FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

630 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH WINDS
TONIGHT...WILL GO ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. LATE WEDNESDAY...MODELS
SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL INCREASE POPS A
BIT IN THE WEST DUE TO THE FASTER TIMING IN THE 12Z MODELS. WITH THE
FAST FLOW...FASTER TIMING SEEMS REASONABLE.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WITH EVERYTHING
INDICATING MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAIN...HAVE
MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.

INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER.

WITH MODELS INDICATING 925MB WINDS FROM 30-40KT AND 850MB WINDS FROM
40-50KT...STILL APPEARS WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THESE
SHOWERS...WITH 25-40KT GUSTS COMMON. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SVR WIND GUSTS IN THE HWO.

OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS...WILL BE A BREEZY NIGHT. AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...THE GUSTY 925MB-850MB WINDS MAY RESULT IN A WIND
HIGHLIGHT BEING NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COMING TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN END IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 00 UTC
FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY COULD BE QUITE TRICKY.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WIND AND CLOUDS SUGGEST MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE VALUES MAY BE TOO COOL...SO HAVE LEANED ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE BOTH PERIODS.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
AND THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.
TEMP GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND ARE BELIEVABLE. SO...HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z RUN OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS STARTED TO EXHIBIT SIGNS OF BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THAT...COUPLED WITH WPC AND CPC SHOWING GOOD CHANCES FOR A DRY
PERIOD OF WEATHER LEADS TO NO WEATHER FROM 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOST DIFFICULT ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IS THE
CLOUD COVER...AS THE MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY THAT MIGHT KICK UP THE CLOUD COVER SOME...SO THE TIMING
AND CONSISTENCY OF THESE SYSTEMS IS A PROBLEM. WITH THAT SAID...MUCH
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ON THE CLEARER SIDE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS QUICK TO ASSUME CONTROL.

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS RIDING ALONG AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE WITH
FEW POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. PBL WINDS HAVE INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS TO ACT AS A SUPPRESSOR FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
EVEN CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS EKN UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD REMAINS
VFR OR MVFR AT THE WORST. THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS EARLY
THURSDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. FIRST SITES TO EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
HTS...PKB....AND CRW. THEN...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN.
VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE THERE WILL BE ICE IN THE COLUMN
SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING WITH DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE TO MIX DOWN H85 FLOW
OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS.

RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATE 25 KNOTS AT 3 KFT. EVEN IF
ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...BELIEVE WONT REACH LLWS CRITERIA IN TERMS
OF A SPEED CHANGE WITHIN A NARROW LAYER LATE OVERNIGHT / NEAR DAWN
WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW MVFR CIGS MAY CREEP INTO BKW LATE OVERNIGHT
/ AROUND DAWN WED. WINDS AND WIND GUSTS MAY VARY FROM FCST. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD DEVELOP AROUND THESE TIMES ESPECIALLY IF /
WHERE SFC WINDS BECOME EITHER CALM OR VERY LIGHT.

DATE WED 11/06/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/RPY
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...ARJ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KHUN 180755
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
255 AM CDT FRI OCT 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS-
TRANSITIONING FROM A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TO A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
PATTERN. FOR NOW, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE WEST
COAST NORTHWARD TO NORTH ALASKA/YUKON TERRITORIES. MEANWHILE, A
SUBTROPICAL JET STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO NE TOWARDS THE OHIO
RIVER AND FINALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS SUBTROPICAL JET KEEPS
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST.

CONCURRENTLY, WITH THE FROPA THAT OCCURRED EARLIER YESTERDAY AND
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT, RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
LIGHT WINDS HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE
RADIATION FOG. OBS INDICATE VISIBILITIES HAVE ONLY BRIEFLY RISEN
ABOVE 1/4 SM. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE NASA-SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY (0423Z IMAGE) CONFIRMS THE DEVELOPMENT AND
SPREADING OF VALLEY/RIVER FOG. THUS, WILL KEEP THE ONGOING DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 9AM. WITH SUNRISE, FOG WILL GRADUALLY
EVAPORATE WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES. MADE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DAYTIME
HIGHS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COOLER START TO THE MORNING AND DELAY IN
WARMING FROM FOG.

DURING THE DAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENVELOPED IN THE BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
SWING DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. AS
THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, IT WILL PUSH A SFC
REINFORCING COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE CORN BELT REGION SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. A DRY COLUMN AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ADVECTION PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL SHOULD YIELD
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO INDICATES A
GENERALLY DRY FORECAST AS WELL. HOWEVER, CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODERATED (ALONG WITH CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT)
THROUGH THE DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THEN, TEMPS SHOULD NOSEDIVE
QUICKLY AS COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S. HAVE ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE
VALLEYS/RIVERS/LAKES, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
WITH A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BTWN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND CROSSOVER TEMPS.
IN ADDITION, SHELTERED LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NORTHEAST
ALABAMA MAY DROP CLOSE TO THE MID-UPPER 30S SUNDAY MORNING YIELDING
A POSSIBILITY FOR FROST.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THIS CHANGE IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL MEAN A PLUNGE OF
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HEARTLAND INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. IN PARTICULAR, OVER THE TN VALLEY, TEMPS MAY BE 5-
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND LOWS, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

AN INITIAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SEND ANOTHER REINFORCING
COLD FRONT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT SENDING VERY
COLD AIR FROM OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES SOUTHEAST. SOME
MODIFICATION OF THIS AIRMASS IS LIKELY, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. THEN, ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF ANOTHER
MID-LEVEL VORTEX ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN
BELT REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE ARE
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BTWN THE MODELS (AND MODEL RUNS) ON THE
THIRD SURGE OF COLD AIR. THUS, HAVE MAINLY INCORPORATED A TREND
DOWNWARD RATHER THAN UTILIZING MODEL GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TEMPS.
NEVERTHELESS, OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP LOW ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF FROST ON THE MORNINGS OF TUE-THU WITH PERHAPS SHELTERED LOCATIONS
DROPPING CLOSE TO FREEZING ON 1 OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS (MOST LIKELY
THURSDAY).

SL.77

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1203 AM CDT FRI OCT 18 2013/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LINGER AT BOTH TERMINALS THRU 14Z THIS
MORNING, WITH CONDS HOVERING NEAR AIRPORT MINIMUMS (200FT CEILINGS
AND 1/2SM VSBYS). CONDS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE WHEN MVFR CONDS
ARE LIKELY, WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING TO BOTH SITES AFTER 18/14-15Z.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 70 49 70 42 / 0 10 10 0
SHOALS 70 48 68 41 / 0 10 10 0
VINEMONT 68 50 68 42 / 0 10 10 0
FAYETTEVILLE 70 47 68 40 / 0 10 10 0
ALBERTVILLE 69 49 68 43 / 0 10 10 0
FORT PAYNE 72 48 69 40 / 0 10 10 0

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK67 PAJK 171407
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
607 AM AKDT THU OCT 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE SKIRTS ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY, RIDING UP OVER THE
TOP AND ONCE IT DOES WILL FLATTEN IT AND CAUSE SKIES TO BE A
LITTLE DIRTIER AS WE SAY IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE. DESPITE THIS, WE
STILL ARE FORECASTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
NORTH...EMPHASIZING MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, BUT THINK FOLKS WILL
SEE THEIR SHADOWS AT SOME TIME TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE SHADOWS MAY
BE LESS EASILY SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN.
THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT FOR SURE AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DIRECTS MORE SOLID MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. YAKUTAT WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE CLEARING TODAY AND EVEN
AS THE MID- LEVEL STRATUS BREAKS UP THIS MORNING, CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN ALOFT AND BECOME LADEN WITH RAIN LATE TONIGHT AS RAIN
DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST. THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE FROM PELICAN
EAST TO GUSTAVUS AND NORTH TO HAINES WILL SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN
LATE. A FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF TONIGHT WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION AND STRENGTHEN NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER YAKUTAT BAY AS WELL AS CROSS SOUND LATE. THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS WILL SEE GALE FORCE WINDS LATE TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION, LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE YUKON WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO
20 KT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND SKAGWAY. NAM IS
DISAGREEING WITH THE ECMWF ON THIS ONE. EVEN THOUGH THE NAM
SEEMED TO BE HANDLING THE LIGHT NORTHERLIES THIS MORNING OVER THE
CANAL...HAVE BEEN FAVORING THE ECMWF WHILE LOOKING AT THIS TIME
PERIOD THE LAST FEW DAYS, AND AM STICKING TO MY FORECAST OF A
SLOW RISE IN WINDS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH OF LYNN CANAL, WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT NORTHWEST TODAY
WITH SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLIES BUILDING TOMORROW OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

FOG IS ANOTHER ISSUE. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND WRANGELL
AND PETERSBURG, AND THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
UNTIL 10 AM. GIVEN LOWER SUN ANGLES...FOG WILL LIKELY TAKE ITS
TIME TO DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER, BUT THE HOPE IS BY NOON. FOG WILL
LIKELY REFORM AGAIN TONIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF JUNEAU, BUT WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE, THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE LESS OF
AN ISSUE, AND DOUBT ANY WILL BE DENSE. THE SPORT MODIS-VIIRS NIGHT
MICROPHYSICS IMAGE HAS PROVIDED EXCELLENT IMAGES DEPICTING THE
LOCATION OF FOG...IN LOCAL DRAINAGE AREAS LIKE THE CHILKAT VALLEY
TO THE BACKSIDE OF DOUGLAS AND SOUTH TO EASTERN FREDERICK SOUND.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE, OTHER THAN COOLING THE SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS FOR TONIGHT TO NEAR 40...FEEL THAT THEY WILL HAVE
ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
TEMPERATURES LOOKED ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OVERALL LIKED THE NAM FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS BUT USING MORE ECMWF
FOR TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
GULF TO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE FRI MORNING, AND THE SECOND ON SATURDAY.
THE LARGEST CHANGES TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PACKAGE ARE DUE
TO RAISING THE POPS AND QPF FOR THE FIRST FRONT.

AT 12Z FRI A 500H TROUGH ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM OVER KODIAK
AND TO THE ESE MOST OF THE WAY ACROSS THE GULF. THIS TROUGH
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND REACH THE PANHANDLE FRI
MORNING. THE SOURCE REGION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS A SPLIT IN ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE CHAIN, WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH THAT FLOWS NNE THROUGH
THE TROUGH ALOFT.

THE FIRST OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE ABOUT 200 NM OFFSHORE OF A
YAKUTAT-SITKA LINE AT 12Z FRI. THE LANDFALL OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING DAYTIME FRIDAY HAS BEEN GIVEN RAISED POP AND QPF VALUES.
YAKUTAT IS FORECAST TO HAVE RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES FRI. POPS WERE
RAISED 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE EXCEPT
ZONES 28 AND 29.

THE CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED BY A LARGE-SCALE LOW IN THE NW PACIFIC
THAT HAS A STRONG TROPICAL ORIGIN. A LOOP OF THE GOES IR ON A
PACIFIC MERCATOR PROJECTION HAS BEEN USEFUL FOR SEEING THE RAPID
TRANSITION FROM A TYPHOON THAT WAS ABOUT 600 NM S OF JAPAN ON TUE,
TO A NEW LOW THAT WAS ROUGHLY 600 NM SW OF SHEMYA ABOUT 06Z THU.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD FOR THE LOW TO DEEPEN TO ABOUT 962 MB
IN THE VICINITY OF SHEMYA AT 00Z FRI. THIS LARGE AND DEEP SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP THE SECOND OCCLUSION, AND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PASS THE YAKUTAT TO SITKA LINE ABOUT 21Z SAT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ026.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ043-051.

JWA/JBT

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK67 PAJK 151412
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
612 AM AKDT TUE OCT 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
PATCHY FOG WITH THE DEPARTING FRONT OVER CANADA. THERE IS A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY OUT FOR WESTERN POW AND OVER THE CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS OUT UNTIL 9 AM. THERE IS SOME FOG OVER THE AREA AS SEEN
BY MODIS- VIIRS NIGHT MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY BUT IT IS NOT REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1/4 OF A MILE AT THIS TIME. THE FOG MAY
BE THICKER IN PLACES THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE LAND AREAS ALSO AS
THE SUN RISES THE FOG MAY THICKEN UP. SO DID NOT CHANGE THAT
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WILL WAIT TO SEE SOME VISUAL
CONFIRMATION THEN DECIDE IF TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY.

THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE AK ARE SEEING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED FROM A WEAK UPPER TROF THAT WILL MOVE INTO CANADA
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SEE THE SHOWERS
INCREASE THROUGH TODAY FROM THE WEST BUT THEN DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE PRECIP RETREATS TO THE WEST.

A UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE GULF AND
PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE UPPER AND MID-
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP OVER MOST AREA OVER THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING.

THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH THIS
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME INCREASED WINDS NEAR
SKAGWAY BUT BY TONIGHT THEY TOO WILL DIMINISH. THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS FROM
THE BUILDING RIDGE WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. LYNN CANAL
CONTINUES TO BLOW MIN SMALL CRAFT FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
WITH 15 KT OVER SOUTHERN LYNN. THESE WINDS WILL VERY SLOW
DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 15 KT OVER NORTHERN LYNN AND TO 10 KT
OVER SOUTHERN LYNN.

OVERALL THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
THAT THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. USED A BLEND
OF THE EC AND NAM FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA MIDWEEK, THEN NUDGING TO THE EAST AS A SOUTHERN
BERING SEA LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE IS EXITS
INTO WESTERN CANADA, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING RAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF ON FRIDAY AND LIKELY INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE BIGGEST ISSUES FOR TONIGHT'S SHIFT WAS FOG PLACEMENT AND SKY
COVER. SURE, WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH COMPLEX TERRAIN UNDERNEATH A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALWAYS BE A CHALLENGE. ASIDE FROM LYNN CANAL
AND CLARENCE STRAIT, MOST PLACES WILL ENJOY LIGHT WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS. A GREAT DAY TO SAIL. A THERMAL TROUGH BACKING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP MOST SPOTS
NORTH AND WEST HERE, WHILE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS MAINLY
SOUTHERLY WITH WINDS BLOWING AWAY FROM THE RIDGE CENTER OVER THE
EASTERN GULF.

WITH SATURATED GROUND FROM LAST NIGHT'S FRONT EXITING THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO BC, EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS UNDERNEATH THE
SURFACE RIDGE, AS WELL AS A STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS AND THUS CLEARING SKIES, WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AND YES, EVEN THURSDAY MORNING ARE GOOD SET-UPS FOR FOG
OVER THE INNER CHANNELS. KEPT MUCH OF THE IDEAS OF LAST SHIFT,
ALTHOUGH REMOVED YAKUTAT AS GUIDANCE NOT HINTING AT IT HERE. IN
COORDINATION WITH SHORT-TERM, DID INTRODUCE SOME FOG FORMATION IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
IF/WHEN THIS FORMS WHETHER THIS FOG EVENTUALLY REACHES ELFIN
COVE, SITKA, AND CRAIG. AT THIS POINT, DO BRING THE MARINE
STRATUS ONSHROE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BUT CHOSE NOT
TO CARRY FOG AS THIS FOG LAYER HAS YET TO DEVELOP.

THE AFOREMENTIONED ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY WILL CLEAR THE SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTH. DID USE GEM AS A CLOUD COVER GUIDE, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN ANY OF THE MODELS IS NOT GREAT. KEPT NORTHERN PANHANDLE AT
PARTLY CLOUDY GIVEN THE RISK OF CLOUDS INVADING OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER, DID LOWER TEMPERATURES TO
FREEZING IN THE MENDENHALL VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING AND TO UPPER
30S DOWNTOWN JUNEAU/DOUGLAS. OTHER SPOTS WILL FLIRT/REACH THE
FREEZING POINT: YAKUTAT, GUSTAVUS, HAINES CUSTOMS, HOONAH IN
PARTICULAR. AS THE DATE GETS CLOSER AND WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS
COME IN, THE HOPE IS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS.

ALL SIGNS POINT TO ANOTHER WET WEEKEND. RAIN IN YAKUTAT IS
DEFINITE FOR FRIDAY, AND CONFIDENCE MOUNTING FOR RAIN INTO THE
PANHANDLE FOR SATURDAY, BUT KEPT LIKELY WORDING FOR NOW. LIKE THE
LAST FRONT, THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE A TROPICAL CONNECTION, SO QPF
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. GIVEN THE DRY MID WEEK, RIVERS SHOULD
HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO LOWER BEFORE THIS NEXT ROUND.

KEPT GFS/ECMWF/WPC INFLUENCED FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
PATTERN GOOD. LESS SO ON THE DETAILS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ026-027.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

ABJ/JWA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 090956
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 AM EDT WED OCT 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL WORK UP
THE EAST COAST TODAY...THEN STALL ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW OVR NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT MAINLY THE SE HALF OF PA EARLY THIS AM. MEANWHILE...CLEAR
SKIES AND A CALM WIND HAVE ALLOWED VALLEY FOG TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHERN PA...AS SEEN IN MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY. FROST ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE THRU 8 AM FOR THE N TIER COUNTIES...WHERE GROWING
SEASON STILL GOING. OBS SHOW SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS UP THERE
HAVE DROPPED TO THE L/M30S AS OF 09Z.

ALL NEAR TERM MDL DATA DRIFTING UPPER LOW AND ASSOC CIRRUS SHIELD
NORTHWARD TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME THIN SPOTS ARE LIKELY...SOUTHERN PA
SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WHILE THE NW COUNTIES SQUEAK OUT
ONE MORE MSUNNY DAY. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY...AS SFC RIDGE AND LOW PWAT AIR WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION.

GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS INDICATE MAX TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM...IN
THE M60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS LOW CRAWLS NORTHWARD...ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET AND PWATS WORK
INTO SOUTHEAST PA TONIGHT...LIKELY SPREADING RAIN INTO THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY. THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NR 40F NORTH TO NR 50F ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES.

POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES OF 1-2SD AND EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES OF
2-3SD BECOME FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST PA ON THURSDAY IN BOTH
GEFS/SREF DATA...IMPLYING A VERY HIGH CHC OF RAIN ACROSS OUR SE
COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON THURSDAY IN THIS
AREA AND INTRODUCED THE CHC OF LIGHTER RAIN REACHING THE I-80
CORRIDOR. A STEADY RAIN OVR THE SE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING
PAST ABOUT 60F...WHILE DRY WX AND FILTERED SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW
READINGS TO APPROACH 70F ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MASS FIELDS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALL
MED RANGE GUIDANCE STALLING UPPER LOW OVR VIRGINIA ON FRIDAY...THEN
VERY SLOW WEAKENING IS INDICATED AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY EDGES
EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...EVEN
THOUGH UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA...GEFS AND EC
ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH SUGGEST LINGERING EASTERLY LOW LVL JET AND
ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL PA
THRU THE WEEKEND. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED THE CHC OF LINGERING
SHOWERS OR SPOTTY DZ THRU THE WEEKEND. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD RESULT IN MILD NIGHTS...AND HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

A BLEND MDL QPF SUGGESTS THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SE PA...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN OUR RECENT DRY SPELL AND THAT THE RAIN WILL BE
SPREAD OUT OVER A FEW DAYS...DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

00Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE DATA IMPLY BRIGHTER AND DRIER CONDS
ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN WE FINALLY LOSE THE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOC
COLD FRONT COULD THEN BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS ARND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES
FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GULF COAST STATES. DRY AIR AT THE SFC SHOULD
PREVENT ANY SIG FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE STATE ON WED. THUS
WINDS MAY PICK UP AT LNS LATE IN THE AFT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE THERE.

GIVEN THE EASTERLY FLOW...FLYING CONDS MAY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE EASTERLY FLOW REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...
AND MOISTURE INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-SATURDAY...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.

SUN...PATCHY MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY...THEN VFR.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-010-037.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GARTNER

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 081004
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
604 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN PARK
ITSELF OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL CRAWL SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS
FORMED EARLY THIS AM ACROSS WESTERN PA. HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE
BOTH INDICATE ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BTWN 13Z-14Z.

LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOC WITH SFC HIGH SHOULD ENSURE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOC WITH CUTOFF LOW OVR THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY.

GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM THE L60S OVR
THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE U60S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA WILL ENSURE A DRY/TRANQUIL NIGHT. NORTHERN
EDGE OF CIRRUS SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN
PA. CLEAR SKIES AND A CALM WIND ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG/FROST.

UPPER LOW AND ASSOC SFC WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO CRAWL NORTH ALONG
THE E COAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY SPREADING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO
CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...ALL MDL DATA INDICATE ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS
REMAIN OVR THE AREA...ENSURING ANOTHER DRY DAY. BRIGHTEST SKIES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE N MTNS AND THE MOST CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN UNIFORM HIGH TEMPS IN THE M60S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUT OFF UPPER LOW AND ASSOC MOIST EASTERLY LL JET LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY BRING A CLOUDY AND DAMP END TO THE WORK
WEEK. GFS/GEFS MEAN BOTH INDICATING A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY TRACK
THAN OTHER MDL DATA...RESULTING IN LIGHTER QPF THAN ECMWF
MEAN/CMC/NAM SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...HAVE RAMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY...BASED ON ALL MDL DATA INDICATING ARRIVAL OF
ANOMALOUS EASTERLY FLOW AND PWATS...FOCUSED ESP ACROSS SE PA.
BLENDED MDL QPF YIELDS 2 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS THU-FRI RANGING FROM
ALMOST NOTHING ACROSS WARREN CO...TO ARND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. HIGH FFG NUMBERS INDICATE THIS WOULD BE
A BENEFICIAL RAIN...RATHER THAN A FLOOD THREAT.

UPPER LOW INDICATED BY ALL MDL DATA TO SLOWLY PASS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER WX. LG
SCALE RIDGE OVR THE E COAST SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL RETURN TO SLIGHTLY
ABV NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE BENEFIT OF A BIT OF
SUNSHINE.

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN MTNS /KBFD
AND KJST/ OVERNIGHT IN THE CHILLY WNW FLOW.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT AS
WELL. THE WET GROUND COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SLACKENING
WINDS COULD SUPPORT FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN FALLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
ADDITIONALLY...JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE MAY PERSIST IN SOME
LOCATIONS TO DISCOURAGE FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...JUST HINTED AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VSBYS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE TAFS.

CONDS WILL IMPROVE ON TUES...AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD.
ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUES NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
VFR CONDS WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...FLYING CONDS MAY BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...
WED...PATCHY AM FOG. OTHERWISE VFR.
WED NIGHT-SATURDAY...EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GARTNER/EVANEGO

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 031118
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
718 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. KEEPING THE
REGION UNSEASONABLY WARM AND EVEN A BIT HUMID AT LEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE
REGION. OTHERWISE IT'S ANOTHER FAIR EARLY AUTUMN NIGHT. A SLIGHT
DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY FROM NW PA SE INTO THE MID SUSQ VALLEY
SUGGEST THE GHOST OF THE OLD FRONT THAT WEAKENED AS IT MOVED INTO
PA A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO IS STILL HANGING AROUND...AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FOCUS TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. SREF AND GFS WANT TO COOK UP SOME WEAK
CAPE AS PWATS RISE TO 1-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD BE OVER THE NW...CLOSEST TO THE BEST FRONTAL
FORCING AND PW SURGE.

IT WILL BE YET ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S OVER
THE NORTH...TO THE LOW AND MID 80S ALONG THE MD BORDER.

THE FRONT IS MADE TO SNAKE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AN UP ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE SFC BASED LI'S SHOW THIS
NICELY AND THIS SHOULD BE ONCE AGAIN THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER DURING THE SECOND PERIOD.

WITH MORE CLOUDS...THE OVERNIGHT WILL STAY QUITE WARM WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF PA
FRIDAY IMPLYING A WARM AND EVEN MUGGY DAY. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOW A SMATTERING OF LIGHT QPF...AND MOS POPS ARE FAIRLY
HIGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING REMOVED
FROM THE FCST AREA...IT SEEMS SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE MAY BE LATCHING
ONTO SOME SORT OF UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GEFS/SREF SHOW THIS POTENTIAL BY ALSO GENERATING SOME WEAK
CAPE OVER ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA. HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM
VERY LOW CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH TO LOW LIKELY NUMBERS ALONG THE NY
BORDER...BUT KEEPING ACTUAL PRECIP AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE
BARRING HINTS OF STRONGER AND WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEEKEND SHOULD FEATURE A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST...A WARM
FRONT OVER NY AND A WARM FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE
FCST AREA. MODELS ONCE AGAIN SPLASH AROUND SOME LIGHT QPF WHICH
SEEMS MAINLY DIURNALLY FAVORED...BUT THINKING IS IT SHOULD BE A
MAINLY NICE-DRY WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE TIME OVER MOST OF THE
AREA.

THE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ARE CENTERED ON COLD FRONTAL TIMING
AND HANDLING OF WHATEVER TROPICAL MOISTURE ENDS UP MOVING INTO THE
GULF STATES. THE GEFS/GFS SUGGEST POTENTIAL STORM KAREN MAKES A
LANDFALL OVER THE FL PANHANDLE BEFORE TRACKING UP ALONG OR EAST
OF A FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND THEN OFF
THE MID ALTL COAST...NOT BEING A THREAT TO PA. THE ECMWF TAKES
THE STORM TO LOUISIANA BEFORE ABSORBING IT INTO A SLOWER MOVING
FRONT...BRINGING SIG RAINS UP INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL PA.

AT THIS RANGE WITH SUCH GREAT UNCERTAINTY...I DIDN'T MAKE ANY SIG
CHANGES TO THE END OF THE EXTENDED...BASICALLY NOT DRYING THINGS
OUT UNTIL TUESDAY...RATHER THAN LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE FASTER GEFS/GFS WOULD HAVE.

QUIET AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL ULTIMATELY RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WITH THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS ADVERTISING A RESURGENCE IN THE EASTERN RIDGE...WARMER AIR
SHOULD MAKE A RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
ECMWF ADVERTISING 500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 590DM BY FRIDAY!

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWS DENSE VALLEY FOG OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL PA. BASED ON HRRR AND NAMPARA...FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY
ARND 14Z...LEAVING WIDESPREAD VFR FLYING CONDS FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF A LATE DAY
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OLD BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. A MOIST SW FLOW ASCENDING THE NW
MTNS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOW CIGS/FOG AT BFD LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS BFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
SAT...AM FOG POSSIBLE.
SUN...AM FOG POSSIBLE EAST. PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 030243
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
943 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013

.UPDATE...NEED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN ERN
AREAS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RAPIDLY
FALL DURING THE EARLY EVENING. MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THESE
AREAS BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN LATER IN THE NIGHT AS STRONG PUSH OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN IL WARM FRONT. WL CONTINUE SMALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION LATER IN THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AS WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN IL SHIFTS
NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT...SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA SHOULD RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS. LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS AROUND KMSN. MAY BE
SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND ERN TAF SITES BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN.
OTRW...SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR T-STORM TO AFFECT TAF SITES
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MRNG...WITH BETTER CHANCE LATER THU AS
WARM FRONT SETTLES OVER CENTRAL WI.

.MARINE...MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IMAGE FROM EARLIER TODAY
SHOWS LINGERING COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE
TO RECENT UPWELLING AND OFFSHORE WINDS. SHEBOYGAN LAKESHORE
CONTINUES TO REPORT WATER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S. WITH UPSTREAM
DEWPTS IN THE 60S EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTHWARD...ADDED FOG TO
FORECAST. MAY BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN ZONE WHERE WATER TEMPS REMAIN COOLEST.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD
WISCONSIN. THE WARM FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AROUND 09Z AND REACH AROUND CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 12Z OR
15Z AND LINGER THERE. LEANED A BIT TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE AS WE
SHOULD COOL OFF QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS ROLL IN.

NOT THE BEST SET UP TONIGHT WITH THE MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET AND Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE TO OUR NORTHWEST...BUT WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH CHANCE POPS SEEM FITTING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THURSDAY
MORNING ARE NEAR 2SD AND BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEY ARE NEAR
THE 99TH PERCENTILE...SO WE/LL LIKELY SEE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES.

BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
A MID LEVEL VORT MAX SLIDING THROUGH...UPPER DIVERGENCE....A LLJ
FORMING TO THE SOUTHWEST. CAPE VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON RANGE FROM
1500 J/KG IN THE WEST TO 1000 J/KG IN THE EAST...WITH A LITTLE CAP.
SHEAR LOOKS TO BE AROUND 20KTS. SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD GET
FEISTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FFORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES AS THE ASSOCIATED JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH
MODERATE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.

THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FRIDAY EVENING AND TO AROUND 35 KNOTS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. 850 MB WINDS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
850/700 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT. LIFTING
ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION RESULTS IN ELEVATED CAPE AROUND
300/600 JOULES/KG. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE HIGHER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY AS ZERO TO 1 KM
CAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 1600 J/KG. THE FAR SOUTH MAY GET FAR
ENOUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON FOR DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO
REDUCE THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A LOW LEVEL CAP DEVELOPS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ON THE NAM THE 12Z NAM MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF WITH A
LOW MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA AREA BEFORE
REACHING WESTERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY. THE 250 MB UPPER JET
INCREASES TO AROUND 115 KNOTS AS IT LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE OCCURS
FRIDAY EVENING.

EXPECT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY REACH SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AS THE
OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM IOWA BACK TOWARDS EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THE 12Z NAM...AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SWEEP ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS IT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS SOUTH CENTRAL WESTERN WISCONSIN IN
THE DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE NAM KEEPS A FAIRLY STRONG
CAP AND DOES NOT GENERATE ANY STORMS. ELEVATED CAPE IS RATHER STRONG
AT 1200 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 TO 45 KNOTS. HAIL AND WIND
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SATURDAY
MORNING ON THE NAM WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S.

THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW...AND HAS THE COLD FRONT AROUND 18 HOURS SLOWER.
THEREFORE THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS
QUESTIONABLE.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF EVENTUALLY BRING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WISCONSIN...WITH THIS
OCCURRING SUNDAY ON THE 12Z GFS AND SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE 00Z ECMWF.
THEREFORE ANY DRY SLOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY A
STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE 00Z ECMWF STILL HAS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION FROM THE UPPER LOW EXITING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE 12Z GFS PUSHES IT WELL INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA.
DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...BOTH MODELS BRING A SOUTHWEST FLOW BACK
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THIS WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.
BIGGEST PROBLEM WOULD BE ANY FROST POTENTIAL BUT IT APPEARS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALREADY START TO MODERATE.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. WE COULD SEE MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 13Z...AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH. SOUNDINGS STILL HINT AT THIS BEING MORE LIKELY IN THE
WESTERN SITES...NEAR MSN AND POSSIBLY UES. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING ISN/T TOO HIGH.

WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE ENTIRE
DAY THURSDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT LINGERS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
INGREDIENTS BEGIN TO COME TOGETHER.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KHUN 020209 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
909 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2013

.UPDATE...
ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE LATE NIGHT...AND MINOR TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
CHANGES.

.DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER TENNESSEE
VALLEY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONTROLLED THE WEATHER. WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SKIES HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA AS OF THIS WRITING. HOWEVER...AREAS OF SOME
LOW CLOUDS/FOG AS SEEN IN THE FOG/LOW CLOUD LOOP...A 115Z MODIS
PASS...AND OBSERVATIONS...WERE AFFECTING PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THE LOWER CLOUDS WERE MOVING IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...WITH NW-N
WINDS NOTED VIA DOPPLER RADAR VAD WIND PRODUCT.

WITH THE ABOVE NOTED FOG AND MORE OF THIS PHENOMENA NOTED ON
SATELLITE...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS FOR THE LATE NIGHT.
FOR THIS UPDATE...RESTRICTED FOG TO LOCATIONS NEAR MOST MAJOR BODIES
OF WATER AND WIND SHELTERED VALLEYS. 300-305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
FROM THE RAP WAS FORECAST TO OCCUR MORE OVER NW ALABAMA...WHICH HINTS
THAT FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM OVER THE NE...DUE TO FEWER CLOUDS.

OTHERWISE...HIGHER ALTITUDE CLOUDS EMANATING FROM A WEAK GULF/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SYSTEM SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. SINCE THOSE CLOUDS WERE CIRRUS...STAYED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
RATHER THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING. NIGHT TIME LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN CLOSE TO FORECAST VALUES. MADE A FEW MINOR (MAINLY DOWNWARD)
ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME OF OUR HIGHER ELEVATED SPOTS...ALONG WITH
DEWPOINT TWEAKS.

UPDATED TEXT/GRID FORECASTS HAVE BEEN SENT. GRAPHICAST WILL BE
FRESHENED SOON.

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2013/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE LATE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
SATELLITE VIEW AND SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT WAS SUGGESTING A DECK OF
MOSTLY VFR STRATUS FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
MORE OVER KHSV THAN KMSL. THUS THE KMSL TERMINAL WILL BE MORE SUBJECT
TO MVFR FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK WED. DESPITE A CHANCE FOR MORE CLOUDS
OVER KHSV...HAVE LEFT A TEMPO IN FOR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...
VFR SHOULD RETURN BY 14-15Z TIMEFRAME WED AM. DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NW
AL COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WED AFTERNOON.
DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE 00Z TAF...PENDING REVIEW OF NEXT MODEL RUN.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2013/
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA TODAY WITH
A WEAK LOW OVER E TX/LA SPREADING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE GULF
COAST. IN ADDITION, THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A DIGGING TROUGH JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA, A WEAK
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

BROKEN CLOUD COVER MAINLY ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF LOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRETCHING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE OH RIVER VALLEY
WILL REMAIN TONIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN LAST NIGHT.
DUE TO THE WARMER DAY TODAY AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS (WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER), TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
TONIGHT, AS WELL.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN CENTERS ON THE
GULF LOW MOVING NNE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
NAM/RAP MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE A SHEARING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND A SLIGHT WOBBLE WEST. DUE TO ITS WEAK
NATURE AND OVERALL STABLE FEATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, HAVE
PULLED BACK POPS FOR TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THE SKY COVER FORECAST AS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW HAS BEEN CHALLENGING TO INTERPRET IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AS
THE LOW WEAKENS. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A RIBBON OF UPGLIDE
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS WHY ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REFLECT MORE
CLOUD COVER FURTHER WEST OVER NW AL THAN AREAS EAST. SIMILAR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE FOR THURSDAY WITH THE BREAKDOWN AND
LIFTING OF THE WEAK "GULF" LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. BY FRIDAY, IT
APPEARS LITTLE (IF ANY) EFFECT FROM THE GULF LOW IS NOTED AS IT MOVES
OFF TO THE NE WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMOVED COMPLETELY FROM FRIDAY'S
FORECAST DUE TO THE LACK OF A LIFTING MECHANISM. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
80S.

MEANWHILE, ON THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE
WEST COAST OF THE U.S. IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EFFECT FROM THIS VIGOROUS
TROUGH WILL BE SPREADING WHAT COULD BE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OF THE
SEASON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKIES. BY FRIDAY, SFC
CYCLOGENESIS WILL HAVE OCCURRED OVER E CO, TRACKING NE ACROSS THE
UPPER MS/MO RIVER VALLEYS BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PARENT TROUGH
MOVING NE ACROSS WI/ONTARIO. THE ACCOMPANYING STRONG NW WILL PUSH A
CP AIR MASS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS STATES.

ALSO, THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA MAY
BE PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST OF FL INTO GA/AL BY THE
ONCOMING TROUGH. IT LOOKS TO THEN MERGE WITH THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD.

AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST, THE BULK OF THE PVA LIFTS TO THE
NORTH LEAVING A SLOW MOVING FRONT AND CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY. THE LATEST MED RANGE
MODEL OUTPUT DOES ACTUALLY SHOW AN OVERALL SLOW PROGRESSION--LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION, WHETHER IT
IS BELIEVABLE OR NOT, THE MODELS DEPICT THAT THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE TROUGH BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THEREFORE,
BEGAN SCALING BACK POPS ON SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
LEFT SUNDAY POPS INTACT. HOWEVER, DID RETAIN POPS FOR A LONGER TIME
PERIOD ON MONDAY GIVEN THIS TREND. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
IF THE SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWING OF THE
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED IN THE LONG TERM TO REFLECT
A SLOWER PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. THIS INCLUDES
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS THAN GUIDANCE.

SL.77

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KRLX 291057
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
657 AM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TODAY. COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR DRY WEATHER THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DESPITE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COOL
FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF RELATIVELY LARGER DEFORMATION IN THE MID LEVELS
AND SATURATED AIR SEEMS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MID LEVEL DECK.
OTHERWISE...POCKETS OF SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCES FOR
PCPN ARE VERY LOW.

HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT ENTERS
SOUTHEAST OH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...KEPT
LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH DELAYED THE ONSET
PER LATEST MODEL RUNS INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

USED A BLEND OF MET AND MAV GUIDANCE...TWEAKING UP COUPLE OF
DEGREES FOR THE PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z MON...ROUGHLY
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO FROM NE TO SW. ASSOC 500MB S/W TROUGH PROGGED
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE NOW KEEPING THE
FRONT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED
S/SW WIND. UPPER S/W TROUGH HOWEVER DOES CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL OH BY 18Z MON AND CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER INTO WV BY 00Z
TUE. THE LLVL MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO THE NW ZONES BTWN 12Z-18Z MON
AWAY FROM THE STALLED FRONT. VORT MAX ASSOC WITH S/W TROUGH PUSHES
INTO WESTERN ZONES BY 18Z MON BUT FLOW IS VERY WEAK THROUGH IT AND
THUS LIFT ASSOC WITH PVA OUT AHEAD OF IT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WELL.
DYNAMICS/FLOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL LEAVE PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE LOW/MID CHANCE RANGE WITH A SLIGHT WEIGHT TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ALONG
WITH SOME SFC CONVERGENCE NOTED IN LATEST NAM12. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT AND NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. AMOUNTS OF PERHAPS A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR TWO EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. INHERITED MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR THE
LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.

MONDAY NIGHT THE S/W TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD...CLEARING THE
FORECAST AREA BY 06Z TUE. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM CRW
TO CKB AND POINTS EASTWARD AT 00Z TUE SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR ALL
LOCATIONS BY 06Z TUE IF NOT SOONER. WILL HANG ONTO SOME SKY COVER
OVERNIGHT WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. THE USUAL RIVER
VALLEY FOG IS A GOOD BET AS WELL...PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS THAT DO
RECEIVE SOME PRECIP MONDAY. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW 50S IN THE SE OHIO
ZONES...WHICH PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON.

BY TUESDAY HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS S/W RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD...WITH AXIS OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
INSISTENT UPON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME TRAPPED LLVL MOISTURE IS NOTED WITH A
CONVECTIVE DEPTH OF AROUND 5KFT. HOWEVER...WITH AFOREMENTIONED LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA WITH UPPER RIDGING AS
WELL AS NO REAL CONVERGENCE SEEN ON THE RIDGE TOPS...AM GOING TO
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
REVISITED. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER VERSUS
MONDAY...WITH READINGS GENERALLY MID/UPPER 70S EXPECTED FOR THE
LOWLANDS. TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOOK FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN
BY EARLY WED MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 50S LOWLANDS...AND WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TEMPS HERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER VERSUS MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EASTWARD MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SOME INCREASED MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY GENERATE SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOWERS
IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT THE CWA BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AGAIN STAY CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID LEVEL DECK ABOUT 5000 FEET EVIDENT IN SFC OBS AND MODIS
SATELLITE IMAGES MANDATED AN UPDATE TO SKIES GRIDS. THESE CLOUDS
PREVENTED FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...REMOVED FOG FROM
FORECAST THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATER TODAY.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS FORMING
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DISSIPATION SUN MORNING MAY VARY.

UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
PATCHY IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE MON MORNING. IFR CIGS ALSO
POSSIBLE NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER MON MORNING.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...ARJ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KRLX 280608
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
208 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES
IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR DRY WEATHER THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS FEW SITES WERE OFF BY FEW
DEGREES.AS A RESULT...LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE TWO TO THREE DEGREES
COLDER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.

ALSO...ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS ADDING LOW STRATUS OVER POCAHONTAS AND
PORTIONS OF RANDOLPH COUNTIES. SMALL AREAS OF FOG EVIDENT IN
MODIS SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL AT 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH 13Z. THEN...GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING BY 15Z.

800 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH RIVER VALLY
FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEING THE MAIN IMPACT
EVENT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SOME CU ACROSS MAINLY WV...AND IN PARTICULAR THE MORE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES WHERE EASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL DRIVE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE
CLOUDS. USED BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...AND WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR SATURDAYS HIGHS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLOW THE APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE
AND COOL FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND...COMING UP AGAINST A RATHER
STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THAT WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT OUT.
MOISTURE DECREASES WITH ITS APPROACH AS SOUTHERLY INFLOW WEAKENS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE FLATTENS OUT. THE
END RESULT WILL BE TO DELAY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
STAYING WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ON THE OTHER
HAND...WILL LINGER SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT
WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE AREA...AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT IS SLOW TO MOVE AS IT WAITS FOR THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER
LOW TO LIFT OUT. IN ANY CASE...QPF WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH AT BEST. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY AS IT IS
UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP
DAY TIME TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH
MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH COLD ADVECTION
AS HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
THUS...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER MAINLY DUE TO
DECREASING CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EWD MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT RULES THE ROOST THIS PERIOD
WITH DRY WEATHER. DAY 7 FINDS THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE E
COAST...SO TEMPERATURES MODERATE THIS PERIOD AFTER...A SEASONABLY
COOL START.

MODELS DIVERGE LATE IN THE PERIOD ON TIMING OF YIELDING OF UPPER
RIDGE TO NEXT S/W TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W. THIS IS THE
BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE TO LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE EASTERN CONUS
BEYOND DAY 7...AND OF INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND
EXTENT OF THIS TRANSITION.

FCST FOLLOWS WPC TIMING ON FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES...WHICH STIFF-ARMS POPS THROUGH DAY 7 NT...12Z
SAT. 12Z GUIDANCE WAS FASTER...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT
THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON / FRI NT. THE SLOWER GFS PUSHED IT
THROUGH LATE FRI NT...THE 18Z RUN MUCH SLOWER AGAIN...HOLDING THE
FRONT BACK TO THE W UNTIL SAT / DAY 8...IN SUPPORT OF THE WPC SOLN.

HIGHS CLOSE TO MEXBC/WPC AND LOWS BELOW MEX/WPC EARLY ON THEN CLOSE
TO MEXBC/WPC EVOLVING TO WPC WHICH IS ABOVE MEX/MEXBC LATE IN THE PD.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 07Z...AND TO IFR/LIFR
ON DENSE FOG ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AROUND 09Z. DENSE FOG MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. BKW WILL BE THE
EXCEPTION...WITH GENTLE WINDS ABLE TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

LINGERED FOG/LOW CIGS THROUGH 13Z- 15Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL. FLOW BECOMES LIGHT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AS THE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. LIGHT NE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME LIGHT S TO SE OVERNIGHT AND THEN REMAIN SO ON SAT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS FORMING
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DISSIPATION SAT MORNING MAY VARY.

DATE SAT 09/28/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L L L H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L L M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M L L L L H H H H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KHUN 270709
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
209 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL REMAIN INTACT OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. WITH TIME, RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL SPILL EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS AND INTO OUR REGION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ENABLE LOWERING DEW POINTS AND MOSTLY
CLOUD FREE DAYS AFTER COMFORTABLY COOL MORNINGS. VALLEY FOG IS
BECOMING PREVALENT THIS MORNING PER GOES AND MODIS IMAGERY, BUT MAY
BE LESS OF CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS. WILL STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO
GFS MOS GUIDANCE +/- A DEGREE OR TWO DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AND/OR DISSIPATE OVER THE MS VALLEY AND WILL NOT REACH OUR
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NONETHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SEGMENT OF VORTICITY THAT BREAKS OFF FROM THE DEPARTING
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAINTAINS AN 850
MB (LOW LEVEL) LOW AND CIRCULATION OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION WHICH
GENERATES VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND LOWER MS
VALLEY. THIS TENDS TO FOCUS MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SW. INITIALLY,
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN COASTAL AREAS WILL
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION AND MAY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
FROM OCCURRING IN OUR AREA THRU SUNDAY. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY,
HAVE NOT CHANGED THE LOW POPS WE HAVE GOING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY UP FOR ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER FORECASTS.

AK
&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1207 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
WITH AN EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 6SM BR/HZ BEFORE
DAYBREAK...VFR FLYING WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD BECOME ESE A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS AGAIN WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AFTER DUSK FRI PM.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 83 57 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
SHOALS 85 56 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
VINEMONT 81 54 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
FAYETTEVILLE 84 55 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBERTVILLE 82 53 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
FORT PAYNE 83 55 83 54 / 0 0 0 0

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 200940
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
540 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN
ITS GRIP ON THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE STATE SATURDAY. AN OMEGA BLOCK AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES WILL
LIKELY BE PARKED OVR THE AREA THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES...A CALM WIND AND INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS AM. MODIS 11-3.7UM SATL
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MOST EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS/FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. LEANING TOWARD AN SPS RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY
TO COVER LOCALLY DENSE FOG THIS AM.

VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z-14Z ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
BASED ON 3KM HRRR SFC RH AND WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...STRATUS
DECK...WHICH HAS WORKED INTO SOMERSET AND WARREN COUNTIES...MAY
TAKE UNTIL ALMOST NOON TO LIFT/BREAK UP INTO SCT-BKN CU FIELD.

HIGHER PWAT AIR ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN PA AND LEAD TO A MIX OF SUN AND CU THIS AFTN...WHILE DRIER
AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. CAN/T
RULE OUT A VERY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA IN THE MORE HUMID AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE W MTNS. HOWEVER...UPPER
LVL RIDGING AND ASSOC WARM MID LVL TEMPS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY DAY
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

GEFS 925TEMPS BTWN 16C-21C FROM SE TO NW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS
THIS AFTN IN THE M/U70S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO
NORMAL ACROSS THE W MTNS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT RANGE MDLS IN AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD
FRONT....WHICH SHOULD ENTER THE NW MTNS LATE SAT AM AND EXIT
EASTERN PA DURING THE EVENING HRS. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ASSOC
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF ANOMALOUS PWATS WILL PRECEDE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING A DECENT RAINFALL TO MOST OF CENTRAL PA. LATEST
SREF AND GEFS OUTPUT INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TOTALS NR 1
INCH OVR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOCAL TOTALS ARND 2 INCHES MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...DUE TO POSSIBLE WEAK
WAVE AND SLOWING OF FRONT SAT EVENING. MDL CAPES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE...THE
RESULT OF ABUNDANT PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN
SLGHT CHC OF EMBEDDED TSRA.

GEFS AND SREF OUTPUT BOTH SUPPORT POPS NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY. CURRENT MDL TIMING SUGGESTS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES MAY REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE AFTN HRS...WHILE RAIN IS LIKELY
TO BEGIN BEFORE DAWN ACROSS THE NW MTNS. BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE OVR THE W MTNS ARND 21Z AND THE EASTERN COUNTIES BY
ARND MIDNIGHT.

CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS IN THE M/U60S SAT
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHILE THE SUSQ VALLEY IS LIKELY TO
GET INTO THE L/70S BEFORE THE RAIN STARTS IN THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LVL TROF AND ASSOC COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL PASS THRU PA ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF DIURNAL CU. CAN/T RULE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE N MTNS. HOWEVER...LOW PWAT AIR MASS IS
UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAIN IN MANY SPOTS. ENS MEAN
925TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM JUST THE U50S ACROSS THE W
MTNS...TO THE U60S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. A RATHER TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING CDFRONT AND HIGH PRES OVR THE WESTERN
LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE NW WIND ON SUNDAY...ADDING
TO THE FALL-LIKE FEEL.

FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE FOR NEXT
WEEK...MOST OF WHICH INDICATE PA WILL BE UNDER RIDGE PORTION OF
OMEGA BLOCK...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER.
GEFS 925/850 TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AND PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SOME COOL MORNINGS.

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST HAS BROUGHT LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO CENTRAL PA...GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS NOW MAINLY IN THE 50S. WITH TEMPS COOLING TO NEAR THESE
DEWPOINTS...AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED WITH SOME AREAS /ESP IN THE
NORTHWEST MTNS/ DROPPING TO VLIFR WITH CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE QUITE
VARIABLE. ALL TAF SITES...IF IT HASN/T BEGUN ALREADY...SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SEE RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH
AROUND 14Z. RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST IN THE WEST WHERE
A LOW CLOUD DECK IS SPREADING OVER TOP OF THE FOG.

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS RETURNING TO THE VFR RANGE FOR ALL BY LATE MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN LOWER CIGS FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST AFTER 09Z.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT CROSSES REGION. RAIN AND SCT TSTMS WILL
BRING RESTRICTIONS AREA-WIDE.

SUN...MVFR CONTINUES IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESP IN THE MORNING ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS...AND SE PA AIRFIELDS.

MON AND TUE...NO SIG WX.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 191256
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
847 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL SLIDE
OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SLOW MOVING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND STRATO CU COVERING ABOUT
THE WRN 40 PERCENT OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.

SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE
ONLY SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSOLVING FROM
THE EDGES AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON.

EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND EXCELLENT VSBY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WRN MTNS INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE
LOWS CLOUDS TO LIFT AND BREAK UP TO A BKN CU FIELD DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE W MTNS. CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WILL
SEE SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME THIN... HIGH-BASED STRATO CU.

WHERE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES OCCURRED...MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY...AND
THE FIRST FEW VSBL SHOTS SHOW FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTH CENTRAL PA
AND THE MID SUSQ VALLEY.

THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 13-14Z.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN IN THE
L/M70S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE W MTNS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE ON A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO A MILDER NIGHT WITH MINS FROM THE U40S TO L50S
MOST LOCATIONS.

AN INCREASING SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE GRT LKS
WILL PUSH PWATS AND 8H TEMPS WELL ABV SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
WESTERN PA FRIDAY. DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE W MTNS BY LATE IN THE
DAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW PM TSRA ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. SKIES SHOULD RANGE FROM PTSUNNY ACROSS THE W
MTNS...TO SUNNY E OF THE SUSQ RIVER...WHERE LOWER PWAT AIR WILL
LINGER. GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS RISE ABOUT 2C FROM THOSE OF
TDY...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS BTWN 75-80F.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY MINOR TIMING DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO FROPA SAT/SAT NIGHT.
LATEST GEFS/SREF AND OPER RUNS SUPPORT RAINFALL BTWN 0.5 AND ONE
INCH OVR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSS...AS PLUME
OF ANOMALOUS PWATS WITH GULF OF MEX CONNECTION WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF CDFRONT. ABUNDANT PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER INDICATED
BY MDL 850-500RH FIELDS AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY PRETTY MEAGER
CAPES SAT AFTN...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA FOR NOW.

BY SUNDAY...A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS NOW INDICATED
THAN A DAY AGO...WITH BULK OF MDL DATA PUSHING CDFRONT EAST OF THE
REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BUT KEPT SLIGHT CHC IN
THE FCST FOR SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR HANDFUL OF GEFS MEMBERS WHICH
STILL DEVELOP WAVE ON FRONT AND KEEP SHRA GOING ACROSS EASTERN PA
SUNDAY.

A TRANQUIL WX PATTERN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL PA NEXT
WEEK...AS NEARLY ALL MED RANGE MDL DATA KEEP CENTRAL PA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. 925-850MB TEMPS
INDICATE DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPT...ALTHOUGH SOME COOL NIGHTS APPEAR LIKELY DUE TO DRY AIR AND
PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH.

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING AN AREA OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS W PA. AN AREA OF IFR-MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BLANKET KJST-KAOO-KFIG-KBFD TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED VALLEY
FOG TIL 14Z.

LOWER CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN
16-18Z.

CIG RESTRICTIONS AGAIN LIKELY EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OCNL MVFR CIGS ALSO POSS AT KJST-KBFD
IN SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR.

FRI NIGHT...PATCHY FOG. LOWERING CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT CROSSES REGION. RAIN AND SCT TSTMS WILL
BRING RESTRICTIONS AREAWIDE.

SUN...MVFR CONTINUES IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESP SE.

MON...NO SIG WX.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 191007
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
607 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2013

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF STRATOCU ACROSS WESTERN PA
EARLY THIS AM...THE RESULT OF COOLING/MOISTENING BLYR BENEATH A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. SATL TRENDS SUGGEST ROUGHLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL BE COVERED BY THIS DECK OF LOW
CLOUDS BY 12Z. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR...MODIS 11-3.7UM
IMAGERY SHOWS FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTH CENTRAL
PA.

THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD BURN
OFF BY ARND 13Z BASED ON LATEST 3KM HRRR SFC RH. FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL
OF MUCH HIGHER DWPTS WILL RESULT IN ONLY SLOW CLEARING FROM EARLY
AM STRATOCU. EXPECT THE LOWS CLOUDS TO LIFT AND BREAK UP TO A BKN
CU FIELD BY AFTN ACROSS THE W MTNS.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN IN THE L/M70S...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE W MTNS.

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING AN AREA OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS W PA. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL WORK INTO KJST-KAOO-KFIG-KBFD DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...WITH CIGS DIPPING TO IFR AT KJST FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE IN UPSLOPE FLOW. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG.

LOWER CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS LAYER MIXES...LEAVING A VFR DAY AREAWIDE.

CIG RESTRICTIONS AGAIN LIKELY EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OCNL MVFR CIGS ALSO POSS AT KJST-KBFD
IN SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR.

FRI NIGHT...PATCHY FOG. LOWERING CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT CROSSES REGION. RAIN AND SCT TSTMS WILL
BRING RESTRICTIONS AREAWIDE.

SUN...MVFR CONTINUES IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESP SE.

MON...NO SIG WX.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU

----------------------------------------------------------------------

ATHW40 PHFO 081831
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC SUN SEP 08 2013

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC SEPTEMBER 08 2013

AS OF 8 AM HST...THE TRAILING SIDE OF A 130 MILE WIDE BAND OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN SHOWERY CUMULUS WAS JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR THE BIG
ISLAND AS IT HEADED WEST. THIS BAND OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS WAS
CENTERED ON A LINE FROM 280 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIIHAU TO 450
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND.
MIMIC...MODIS...AND BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWED
THIS BAND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE RIDING ON
TRADE WINDS. THERE WERE STILL SOME LINGERING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERY
CUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND BRUSHING THE KAU AND PUNA
DISTRICTS...AND SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND.

OVER AND UPSTREAM FROM THE ISLANDS FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES...
MAINLY JUST FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE NOTED. LOW CLOUD MOTION
WAS TOWARD JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 20 MILES AN HOUR. ON
LAND...MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS WERE BANKED AGAINST WINDWARD FACING
SLOPES...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER ISLAND INTERIORS AND LEEWARD
SECTIONS.

A WEAK TROUGH IN THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS WITHIN 75 MILES OF A LINE FROM 9N 170W TO 14N
164W. THIS IS ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NIIHAU AND 350 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND. HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA WERE
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 49000 FEET. THIS AREA IS MOVING WEST AT ABOUT
10 MPH.

THE NEARLY STATIONARY REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT WERE LOCATED
ABOUT 550 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERY
CUMULUS...ALONG WITH SOME VERY ISOLATED CUMULONIMBUS WITH TOPS TO
39000 FEET...WERE ALONG A LINE THROUGH 30N163W 26N175W.

R BALLARD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 080834
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
434 AM AST SUN SEP 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH EARLY MON THEN
YIELD TO RETROGRESSING TUTT OVR THE CNTRL ATLC. TUTT WILL REACH PR
TUE. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD THU. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRES WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...MCS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING WITH STRATIFORM
LIGHT RAIN AFFECTING MAINLAND PR AND OUTFLOW BDRY MOVING EWD OVR
THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE. FOR
TODAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONION-SHAPED
LOW LEVEL TEMP/DEWPOINT PROFILES INDICATIVE OF DOWNDRAFTS FROM MCS
AND WARMING AND DRYING EFFECTS OF SUBSIDENCE.

MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST
TONIGHT AS SAL ARRIVES. 08/0145Z MODIS TERRA DUST RGB PRODUCT
(12-11 MICRON CHANNEL DIFFERENCING) SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF SAHARAN
DUST APPROACHING BARBADOS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THAT SHOULD
BE OVER PR BY MON. OVERALL...VERY DRY CONDITIONS ON MON.

UNUSUALLY DEEP TUTT OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL AMPLIFY AND RETROGRESS
TOWARD PR BY TUE. MODELS INDICATE THIS BEING A PRETTY DEEP FEATURE
AS IT REFLECTS TO 500 MB WITH 200 MB HEIGHTS BELOW THE 25TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND COOL MID-LEVEL H5 TEMPS
CLOSE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. WHILE MOISTURE
SEEMS SOMEWHAT LIMITED VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD COMPENSATE
AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG CONVECTION AS IT INTERACTS
WITH SAL. BETTER MOISTURE IS FCST BEGINNING THU AS SAL DEPARTS.

ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FORMER INVEST 98L LOCATED NEAR
16.4N AND 36.5W. MODELS SHOW THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING WNW AND
THEN DIVING WSW REACHING PR OVR THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MID-UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR AHEAD OF IT MODELS SHOW FEATURE HOLDING TOGETHER AND
ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING SOME AS IT REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES FRI.
EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO BRING SOME ACTIVE WX NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...AREAS MVFR CIG LEFT OVER FM OVERNIGHT SHRA/TSRA WL GRDLY
IMPRV BEFORE SUNRISE. TIST/TISX MIGHT STILL GET MVFR IN TSRA OR BRF
IFR THIS MRNG IF CONVECTION CONT MOVG E FM VIEQUES/CULEBRA. WL
INCLUDE PDS MVFR ACCORDINGLY. OTHW SHRA/TSRA TO BE ISOLD TDY XCPT
SCT NW PR. SAHARAN AIR WL BGN TO AFFECT AREA LATE TDY...PSBL FALSE
CIGS FOR TIST/TISX ASOS ON SAT. WINDS SFC-FL100 S TO SE 10-18 KT
BCMG ESE NR 10 KT BY SAT AFT.

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT AND WINDS UP 20 KT. SCT TSRA MAINLY ERN
WATERS. SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IN
ENE SWELLS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 90 79 / 10 10 20 0
STT 82 78 89 81 / 20 10 10 10

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

54/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK67 PAJK 031351
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
551 AM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

.SHORT TERM...TWO STORIES FOR THIS SHIFT, THE SURFACE RIDGE
FIRMLY PLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN, CENTRAL, AND INTERIOR PANHANDLE
ALLOWING THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER TO SATURATE INTO RADIATIONAL
FOG. THIS OCCURRED SOMEWHAT LATER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
METEOROLOGY ASSOCIATED WITH FOG SEEMED SOUND OVER THE SOUTH WITH
NE'ER A CLOUD IN THE SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND THE DYNAMICS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT MILES AWAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS
MODIS-VIIRS MICROPHYSICS IMAGE AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS WERE
CLEARLY INDICATING AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS WERE A TOUGHER CALL. THE ORIGINAL FEELING THAT
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AREA AND HIGHER CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SURFACE
RADIATION. YET WITH STILL SOME MOISTURE IN THE AIR CONTRIBUTED
FROM A LOW TIDE SITUATION AS WELL AS RESIDUAL LEFT ON THE GROUND
FROM THIS WEEKEND'S RAIN TOTALS, AND AN APPARENT MORE BROKEN
LAYER OF STRATOCU ABOVE, AREAS NEAR JUNEAU, WRANGELL, PETERSBURG,
AND POSSIBLY KAKE ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DENSE FOG. AN EXPANDED
AREA OF DENSE FOG WAS JUST ISSUED TO COVER THESE AREAS THROUGH
10 AM. STILL INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN ZONES, AS THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING EAST AND
SOUTH.

THE SECOND STORY IS THE APPROACHING FRONT MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF. YAKUTAT IS ALREADY RAINING AND THEIR WINDS HAVE
SLOWLY BEGUN TO COME UP FROM THE EAST. WINDS AT BUOY 82 ARE
APPROACHING GALE FORCE AND THESE WINDS WILL STRETCH INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE WEAKENING TO SMALL
CRAFT THIS AFTERNOON. YAKUTAT BAY WILL ALSO GO TO SMALL CRAFT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
HEALTHY WIND SHEAR AT 2000 FEET WITH THIS FRONT LASTING ALMOST
12 HOURS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING A WALL OF
RAIN TO REACH YAKUTAT WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION TODAY WITH AN ADDITION INCH OR INCH AND A HALF
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. TIMING SKETCHY, BUT FEEL MOST LIKELY IT WILL BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR JUNEAU AND NORTHERN BARANOF ISLAND...BEGINNING
EARLIER FROM SKAGWAY DOWN TO CROSS SOUND. REGARDING INSIDE WATER
WINDS, DID GO SMALL CRAFT LATE TONIGHT FOR CROSS SOUND AND FEEL
NORTHERN LYNN WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ONLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST
AND LEESIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE YUKON.

MODELS OF CHOICE WAS ECMWF/GFS WITH SREF USED FOR POP FIELDS.
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST HIGHER THAN AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MAIN FOCUS FOR LONGER RANGE WAS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM
MOVING N INTO THE GULF. MODELS AGREE IN GENERAL THAT A LOW WILL
TRACK N TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. FLOW ALOFT LOOKS SLY AND UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO BE
FURTHER W THAN IT WILL BE WITH THE MIDWEEK FRONT...SO THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST. MAIN FORECAST
CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WINDS FOR FRI-FRI NIGHT PERIODS OVER THE
GULF. USED BLEND OF 00Z GFS AND ECMWF FOR WED-FRI NIGHT...THEN
BASICALLY KEPT IN OR ADJUSTED TO WPC FOR SAT ONWARD...DEPENDING ON
WHAT WAS THERE PREVIOUSLY.

FIRST FRONT SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST LATE WED...THEN
STALL THERE WHILE WEAKENING. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DISSIPATE BY
LATE THU AFTERNOON. ONE TRICKY ASPECT WITH THIS FRONT IS HOW FAST
PRECIP AHEAD OF IT DIMINISHES AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. THE MODEL
BLEND WAS A MIDDLE GROUND COMPROMISE ON THIS...DIMINISHING THE
PRECIP DURING THE DAY THU. PRECIP WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE NE
GULF COAST WED MORNING...BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SOME PRECIP
GOING INTO WED NIGHT. THE FAR SERN AREA STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN DRY...MAINLY FROM PAKT/PANT EWD WED INTO THU. LYNN CANAL
WILL SEE THE MOST WIND OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GALES EXPECTED
OVER NRN LYNN CANAL WED AFTERNOON. PAGY MAY NEED STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR WED INTO WED EVENING AS WELL...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW AS THAT IS A 3RD-4TH PERIOD EVENT.

LOOKS LIKE GALES FOR A GOOD PART OF THE GULF FOR FRI AS NEXT
SYSTEM ROLLS IN. ENDED UP LOWERING SEAS FROM INITIAL GUIDANCE
FROM AKWAVE AND OUTSIDE WATERS TOOL AS WFO PAFC DID NOT WANT TO
JUMP THE SEAS UP AS MUCH AS I HAD INITIALLY...UP TO 20-22 FT IN
THE CENTRAL GULF...BUT IF MODELS CONTINUE HANDLING SYSTEM LIKE
THEY ARE...LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RAISE SEAS DUE TO THE FAIRLY
LONG SLY FETCH.

AFTER SAT MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT SO GOING THE WPC ROUTE WAS THE
BEST WAY TO GO FOR NOW.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ025>029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-042-043-051-053.

JWA/RWT

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 300221
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
921 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013

.UPDATE...WHILE BULK OF FORCING REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SOME INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THETA-E ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AS MID-LEVEL CAPPING WEAKENS. MID-
LEVEL STEERING WINDS NORTHWEST FOR A TIME BEFORE BACKING TO MORE
WESTERLY. HENCE ENOUGH TO WARRENT KEEPING IN SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDER OVER NORTHEAST CWA LATER TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCE LATER
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SOUTHERN
WI. EXPECT MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONT WITH CAPES EXCEEDING 2500
J. ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO CAUSE SOME AFTERNOON SUPERCELLS
OVER CWA AS FRONT SAGS THROUGH.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...LIKELY TO BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOW AREAS
BUT COUNTING ON MORE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND EVENTUAL INCREASE
IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE NORTH TO PREVENT
EXTENDED PERIOD OF FOG WITH LOWER VSBYS. BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION LATER FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS CDFNT MOVES
ACROSS SRN WI. ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OVER ERN TAF SITES FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN SHALLOW SO NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT TO INTRODUCE CIGS.

.MARINE...MODIS IMAGE FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED THAT THE STRONG
LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT HAD WEAKENED. THE BULK OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS HAD WARMED INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...LESSENING
THE COOLING EFFECT ON HUMID AIR OVER THE LAKE. HENCE LESS OF A
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. LATEST
VISIBLE WEBCAM IMAGES WAS SHOWING SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE EAST OF
SGNW3. MORE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD ALSO HELP PREVENT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013/

VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MAIN ISSUES FOR THIS PERIOD ARE HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL FRIDAY...AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT...REACHING AN IRON MOUNTAIN MICHIGAN TO WINONA
MINNESOTA LINE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH 850MB LOW LEVEL JET/FOCUSED WARM
AIR ADVECTION REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
MESOSCALE/SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOWING A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA AS WELL...OR RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
AS THEY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT LOWER END POPS
FOR TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...IN CASE ANY LEFTOVER
PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THAT AREA. WARM AND MUGGY AGAIN WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S INTO MOST OF THE AREA...WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL BRING HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE 95 TO 99 RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY REACHING 100 OR HIGHER. WILL MENTION THIS IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR
A HEAT ADVISORY.

COLD FRONT THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MEAN LAYER CAPES
OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH LITTLE CIN AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO
30 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC MODELS GENERATING PRECIPITATION BY 00Z
SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM QUICKER WITH ITS MOVEMENT THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. WRF/NMM 4KM MODEL FROM SPC DOES NOT GENERATE A LOT OF
CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE IS FAIRLY ROBUST...THOUGH 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MISSES AREA TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUTPACES THE
FRONT. NO JET DYNAMICS TO SPEAK OF EITHER. THUS...LEFT CHANCE POPS
GOING FOR FRIDAY. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...COULD NOT RULE OUT A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO. SEE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

850MB THERMAL RIDGE AND CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG
MID-LEVEL TROUGH NOT QUITE OUT OF CWA BY 06Z FRIDAY...WITH NAM AND
GFS SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG SURFACE FRONT SO WILL
LEAVE A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE WEST BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.

COOL AIR STREAMING IN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES COOLING 6C TO 8C
BETWEEN 00Z SATURDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. GFS AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION TRAPPING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO VARYING
DEGREES. WILL ACKNOWLEDGE FOG POTENTIAL WITH PATCHY EVERYWHERE AND
AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

WILL SEE 925 MB TEMPS RECOVER ENOUGH FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 WELL
INLAND SATURDAY...BUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL BE COOLED BY
NORTHEAST WINDS WITH MID 70S NEAR THE LAKE AND A FEW UPPER 70S ALONG
AND WEST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE.

TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA
DROPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. WILL HAVE COLLABORATIVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AS STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MOVES IN WEST
OF MADISON WITH THE FRONT BY 18Z...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER ON SUNDAY EVENING...THEN COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH NNW UPPER FLOW KEEPING THE EXTENDED
DRY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE EARLY
EXTENDED CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AT MADISON AND KENOSHA.

SOUTH WINDS AT MADISON...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE EASTERN
SITES...ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY SCATTERED
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND VEER
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG POTENTIAL TO MADISON
AND KENOSHA IN THE 09Z TO 14Z FRIDAY PERIOD. WENT JUST VFR FOG IN
TAFS FOR NOW. SOME SOUTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO TAF SITES AROUND OR A LITTLE
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY AFTER 21Z FRIDAY UNTIL AROUND 03Z TO 05Z SATURDAY. USING
VICINITY WORDING IN TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS.

MARINE...SOME HAZINESS/PATCHY FOG SEEN ON AREA WEB CAMERAS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN...MAINLY OUT BEYOND THE BREAKWATER. ADDED PATCHY FOG
FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...GIVEN EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S OVER THE COOL LAKE WATERS. DESPITE WINDS GRADUALLY
INCREASING DURING THIS TIME...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE FORECAST IF
NEEDED.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK67 PAJK 291344
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
545 AM AKDT THU AUG 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...FOG IS ONCE AGAIN A PLAYER IN THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING THOUGH IT IS NOT AS WIDE SPREAD AS IT WAS YESTERDAY
MORNING. IMAGES FROM MODIS AND NPP SHOW SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
AROUND GLACIER BAY, YAKUTAT BAY, AND HAINES. THE DENSEST FOG THIS
MORNING IS AROUND YAKUTAT WHERE VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THOUGH THE OBSERVER THERE REPORTS THAT THE FOG
IS ONLY A FEW HUNDRED FEET THICK VERTICALLY. DECIDED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR YAKUTAT UNTIL 8 AM THROUGH THE VERY LOW
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT LAST LONG WITH HOW SHALLOW THE FOG IS. SOME
VERY PATCHY AND SHALLOW FOG HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED AT PETERSBURG,
AND JUNEAU THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE, WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA IS RATHER QUIET FOR THE MOST
PART. SKIES, WHERE THE FOG DOES NOT OBSCURE IT, ARE PARTLY CLOUDY
OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE EXCEPTION IS
HAINES AND SKAGWAY WHERE A BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID TO HIGH LAYER OF
CLOUDS STILL LINGERS FROM THE WEAK FRONT FROM YESTERDAY. FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS THE FIRST OF A FEW
SHORT WAVES MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. NO PRECIP HAS BEEN
OBSERVED FROM THESE CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE YET BUT
SOME CANADIAN OBS FARTHER SOUTH HAVE REPORTED SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVERNIGHT.

THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS TO MOST AREAS. THE LIGHT RAIN
WILL MAINLY BE CONFOUNDED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IF IT
DOES RAIN AT ALL. AS SUCH HAVE MAINLY CHANCE POPS UP FOR THOSE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS FARTHER NORTH WILL MOST LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY RAIN AS THE SE FLOW WITH A SLIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO IT
WILL CAUSE THE CLOUDS TO DROP WHATEVER MOISTURE THEY HAVE ON THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE MIGHT SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THERE
STILL MIGHT BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW ENOUGH COOLING
FOR IT TO FORM.

WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM OVER THE PANHANDLE AS MOST
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF ARE A DIFFERENT STORY. THERE A
STRENGTHENING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL CAUSE SOME SE WINDS UP
TO 25 KT IN THE OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF TODAY. WITH THE LOW DIVING TO
THE SE TONIGHT THOSE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY CALM DOWN OVERNIGHT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS TODAY WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THOUGH IT LOOKED
LIKE NAM AND GFS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT FEATURES. DECIDED
ON UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND A BIT OF NAM.
&&

.LONG TERM...ALL 29/00Z OPS MODELS INSIST ON SPLIT FLOW ALOFT ON
FRIDAY AS A RELATIVELY STRONG PLANETARY SCALE UPR LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE TOWARD THE SE TO ARRIVE OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SPLIT WILL BE WESTERLIES ALONG
60N OR SO WHICH OPENS THE WAY FOR UPR SHORTWAVES AND SOME WET. THIS
PATTERN WAS ACCEPTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AND CONTINUED IN THIS
MORNINGS FORECASTS. THIS PATTERN KEEPS REAL WIND MAKERS AWAY...BUT
DOES ALLOW FOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION SAT & SAT NITE DUE TO A VERY
LONG FETCH FROM THE WSW. NEW MODEL RUNS TAKE UNTIL 12Z MONDAY TO
BUILD A POSITIVE TILTED UPPER RIDGE INTO 140W BUT THIS WILL BE A
DIRTY RIDGE - ONE WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SO FORECASTS IN THE
LONGER RANGE REMAIN UNCHANGED. IT INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT DAILY
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK THE TIMING ON THE EVENTUAL
SET UP FOR A MODERATE STRENGTH SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PANHANDLE FOR
A WETTER REGIME. CONFIDENCE MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY THEN LOOK FOR
TIMING ADJUSTS...MOST LIKELY A DELAY ON SW FLOW ALOFT IF A STORM IN
THE BERING IS DEEPER ON TUE THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED. THAT STORM
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR AND ITS EARLY FOR THAT. KEEP
WATCHING FOR OLD TYPHOON REMNANTS TO GET INTO OUR FLOW. SAT & SAT
NITE WILL BE A TASTE OF SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE GETTING INTO THE
WESTERLIES ALOFT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ZONE ADVISORY ZONE 17.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ052.

EAL/JC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 290251
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
951 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2013

.UPDATE...VSBY QUICKLY DROPPED TO 1/4SM AT KENW JUST AFTER LOW
STRATUS AREA PASSED BY. HOWEVER KENW WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN
HIGHER AND LOWER VSBYS THROUGH 08-09Z DUE TO AREA OF MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST CWA ATTM. POSTED
DENSE FOG ADVY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST HOWEVER AS EXPECT VSBYS TO FALL
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FARTHER NORTH...AT LEAST UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH KEFT/KMRJ AREAS MORE CLOSELY DUE
TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LESS EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG IN NON-ADVY AREAS.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS FAVOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOG TONIGHT. HOWEVER PERIOD OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY PASS
ACROSS MUCH OF SRN WI THROUGH 08-09Z. HENCE WL LIMIT PERIOD OF
LOWER VSBYS TO LATE TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN KENW WHICH HAS ALREADY
FALLEN TO 1/4SM VSBY. LIKELY WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME AS CLOUDS
MOVE ACROSS BUT WL LIKELY DROP BACK TO IFR OR LOWER LATE TONIGHT.

.MARINE...LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND RECENT SGNW3 SUGGEST RECENT
OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS IN
PORTIONS OF NEAR SHORE WATERS. THESE COOLER WATERS IN THE 50S WERE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHICH DEVELOPED EARLIER
TODAY. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...MORE
OF A ADVECTION VERSUS RADIATION SCENARIO OVER LAKE MI. HENCE WL
CONTINUE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY THROUGH THU MRNG.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2013/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
SHORELINE AREAS FROM MILWAUKEE TO KENOSHA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE MOVING/MIXING OUT.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE HIGH
WILL BRING LIGHT/CALM WINDS...BUT DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

ONLY THING PREVENTING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUANCE LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY IS THE EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT. IF
THESE DO NOT MATERIALIZE AS ANTICIPATED...DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. STILL...WENT WITH AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY
DENSE FOG FROM 09Z TO 14Z THURSDAY...WITH PATCHY FOG LEADING UP TO
THAT PERIOD.

FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRINGING ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY TO THE AREA. 925MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND...WITH LOWER 80S LAKESIDE. THIS IS RELIANT ON FOG MIXING OUT
BY LATE MORNING.

ADDED LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREAS LATE THURSDAY...AS FOCUSED
850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CLIPS THAT AREA WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE.
MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH

MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR/U.P. AREA.
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE STAYS TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. TWO PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ONE WITH THE MODERATE 35 KNOT 850 KNOT JET
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY AREAS TO OUR NORTH
BUT THAT COULD AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN AS ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE RAISES TO 1200 J/KG.

THEN THE INCREASED 850 MB WINDS SAG INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CROSSES SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE 925/850 MB THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE INCREASES TO 3000 J/KG FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EHI VALUES RISE TO 2 TO 4 WITH ZERO TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 35 KNOTS. THE LOCAL SEVERE CWASP PARAMETER INCREASES TO
AROUND 65 PCT. AS A RESULT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.
CIPS ANALOG HAS QUITE A FEW SEVERE REPORTS INDICATED ESPECIALLY WIND
BUT THERE IS ALSO A FEW HAIL AND TORNADOES REPORTS. SPC HAS A 5 PCT
SEVERE RISK AT THIS MOMENT...AND COULD BE UPGRADED. THE NAM KEEPS
THE FORECAST AREA DRY UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXITS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AROUND MIDNIGHT WHICH SHOULD THEN END THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...;WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...

LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A MID/UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION
ON NORTH LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE TROUGH. A
SECOND COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, THEN A
SECONDARY SURGE OF VERY COOL AIR MOVES IN ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE GFS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...EXCEPT SOME CEILINGS
NEAR ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA. VISIBILITIES BELOW
ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AND PERHAPS DOWN TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH FOG AT ALL SITES. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER ON
THURSDAY.

LOW CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD MIX OUT EARLY THIS
EVENING ELSEWHERE. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 03Z THURSDAY AND LINGER
UNTIL AROUND 15Z THURSDAY.

POTENTIAL THERE FOR DENSE FOG BELOW 1/4 MILE DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW THICK THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BE DURING THAT TIME. FOR NOW...WILL GO BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS BUT
ABOVE AIRPORT MINIMUMS FROM 09Z TO 14Z THURSDAY. FOG SHOULD MIX OUT
BY LATE MORNING...WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN UNTIL 18Z THURSDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S OVER THE COOL LAKE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DENSE
FOG...CONFIRMED BY AREA WEB CAMERAS NEAR THE LAKE. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DENSE FOG OVER THE
WATERS. THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ070>072.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KCHS 270734
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
334 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD AND MODIFYING THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT COULD AFFECT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ATOP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL INDUCE LEE
SIDE TROUGHING BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND A
TIMELY MODIS TOTAL PRECIPITATION WATER IMAGE SHOW THAT THE
TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH MOISTURE ONLY SHOWING
UP AROUND 825 MB. THIS DRY AIRMASS COUPLED WITH BROAD SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL GENERALLY SUPPRESS SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
GEORGIA COAST WHERE A FEW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS H3R AND
THE NSSL 4KM WRF DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITHIN A SMALL AREA OF MID-LEVEL THETA POOLING. WILL
HIGHLIGHT A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH GEORGIA
COAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING
BY SUNSET. DRY WEATHER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE REMAINING
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED THE REGION AS
THE LEE SIDE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS
AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL
NIGHT...BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE PAST FEW. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S INLAND TO 70-75 AT THE BEACHES.

WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DOWN THE
EAST COAST BY MID WEEK...WHILE THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES RETREATS SLIGHTLY.
A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE ABLE TO SLIP ALONG THE
WEAKENING SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND SHIFT INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EMBEDDED IN THE
SURFACE TROUGH MAKES STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. SUFFICIENT
SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE PRESENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...ALONG WITH INCREASING
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE...COULD ALLOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT INTO THE FAR INLAND/NORTHERN ZONES
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SINCE DETAILS OF RAIN POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE MORE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...PREFER TO CAP RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15
PERCENT AT THIS POINT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS...AND IF BETTER CONSISTENCY BECOMES EVIDENT...SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE MAJORITY OF WEDNESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE RATHER QUIET...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS AROUND 90 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY...THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY...SUPPORTING THE ORGANIZATION OF A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE DESCENDING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH.
ALTHOUGH SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE STILL EVIDENT IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS...GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH SHOULD STILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES CLOSEST TO THE APPROACHING FRONT. SINCE
THE FRONT WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WARM DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...REACHING THE LOW TO PERHAPS EVEN MID 90S INLAND.

FRIDAY...THE WEAKENING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
DIMINISHES UPON APPROACH. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE WEAK ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE PROMINENT WESTERN
RIDGE...YET LINGERING CONVERGENCE FROM THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING
THE FAVORED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT...A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL INITIALLY
BE WEAKER AND ILL-DEFINED...WITH REMNANTS OF THE FRONT LINGERING
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY.
THE NEXT NOTABLE SURFACE FEATURE WILL BE A DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE REGION BY TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT AND
SUBSEQUENT STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THUS PREFER TO
REMAIN GENERIC WITH FORECAST DETAILS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL
MODEL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES. WILL INDICATE A SEASONAL PRECIPITATION
PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE BEST CONVERGENCE/
INSTABILITY TRANSITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT. HAVE
ADVERTISED HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF AVERAGE FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER...PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
TUESDAY...WHEN PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION COULD ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 90S.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A PASSING COLD FRONT.

.MARINE...
TODAY...QUITE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR TODAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2
FT NEARSHORE WATERS...2-3 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS LEE SIDE
TROUGHING IS MAINTAINED INLAND. WINDS WILL PICK UP JUST A BIT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOME NOCTURNAL SURGING TAKES HOLD...BUT WINDS
LOOK TO GO NO HIGHER THAN 10 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS...2-3 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STEADILY
EXPAND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST MID WEEK...WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT AND SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
KT. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL DESCEND INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AND LINGER SATURDAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS DIMINISHING AND
DIRECTIONS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

ST/WMS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 221445 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1045 AM AST THU AUG 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT WILL REMAIN OVER PR THROUGH
FRI. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUN AND HOLD
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE.
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION OVR PR TODAY AND
12Z RAOB SHOWS COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -9C AT 500 MB SO ANY
POCKETS OF STRONG HEATING COULD YIELD A STRONG TSTM OR TWO WITH
SMALL HAIL. NEGATIVE FACTOR APPEARS TO BE UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
GOES SOUNDER PRODUCT. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SEEM SOMEWHAT NEUTRAL
FOR AN ACTIVE DAY.

AFTER TODAY...LOW-MID LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE AREA. SOME DUST HAZE WAS NOTED ON
THE MODIS AQUA DUST RGB PRODUCT FROM LAST NIGHT AND PSEUDO-NATURAL
COLOR METEOSAT IMAGES FROM THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING THAT WE HAVEN'T SEEN
SO FAR THIS SUMMER. ANYWAY...IT SHOULDN'T CAUSE ANY REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY OR AIR QUALITY ISSUES.

.AVIATION...SCT SHOWERS MAY AFFECT PR TERMINALS WITH A TSTM LIKELY
AT JMZ LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DRYING EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE. TSTMS OVER
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 80 89 81 / 30 30 30 10
STT 82 79 90 81 / 20 50 50 20

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

64/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 201001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
601 AM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
ACROSS PA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG ACROSS
CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM. MANY LOCATIONS AOB 1/4SM VSBY AT
09Z...SO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU 13Z. 3KM HRRR SFC
RH SUGGESTS THE FOG WILL BURN OFF IN MANY LOCATIONS BY ARND
12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER IN A FEW LOCATIONS UNTIL 14Z.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ENSURE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE LATER TODAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS.
ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 16C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND A CALM WIND UNDER SFC HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RH/S WILL BE MUCH LOWER
GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS...SO EXPECT THE DENSE FOG TO BE ISOLATED
TO THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

SFC HIGH WILL RETREAT OFF THE E COAST ON WED AND CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY OVR ILLINOIS...WILL BE LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARD PA. LG SCALE FORCING AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPS/HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP...WITH AFTN READINGS LIKELY RANGING FROM THE L80S OVR THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE U80S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE SPREAD NOTED AMONG 00Z MED RANGE GUIDANCE...ALL OF WHICH
SHOW UPPER LOW OPENING UP AS IT LIFTS INTO PA WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEAKENING SHORTWAVE THEN MERGES WITH MAIN BRANCH OF
JET AS IT AND ASSOC COLD FRONT DIVE SE INTO PA LATE THURSDAY. BASED
ON THIS SCENARIO...HAVE INTRODUCED A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WED NITE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THE ENTIRE AREA BY THU PM.

WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE THAT CENTRAL PA WILL
SEE A RETURN TO COOLER/LESS HUMID CONDS FRI-SUN...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES AND ASSOC NEGATIVE PWAT ANOMALIES BUILD SE INTO PA. HAVE
REDUCED MIN TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF RAD COOLING.
HOWEVER...ECMWF ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 12C SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME
HIGHS NR LATE AUGUST NORMALS. BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY...SFC HIGH
WILL LIKELY PASS SOUTH OF PA...BRINGING RETURN SW FLOW OF
WARMER/MORE HUMID CONDS AND THE CHC OF CONVECTION ON EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE OVR THE MIDWEST.

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
ACROSS PA THIS MIDWEEK.

DWPT DEPRESSIONS RUNNING BTWN 0-3F ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND
ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG WILL BE DENSE...ESP IN THE DEEP
VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND WHERE THERE WAS RAINFALL YESTERDAY.

THE FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BURN-OFF SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. THOUGH MVFR MAY LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING...THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR.

FOG RETURNS FOR LATE TUE NIGHT...THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AND
THICK AS THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...VFR.

FRI...MVFR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 151427
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1027 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013

.UPDATE...VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE TO AFTERNOON GRIDS OTHERWISE
LEFT THEM AS IS.

.DISCUSSION...FEW TINY SHOWERS ARE PASSING BY THE ISLANDS OFFSHORE
BUT ANYTHING MORE SUBSTANTIAL IS NOTED BY GUDADELOUPE RADAR
(METEO-FRANCE) CURRENTLY 60W-61W AT THE LEADING PART OF THE WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE THERE...BUT CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE HAS BEEN LIMITED
SO FAR. WILL NEED TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS AS IT ARRIVES FOR
HOW THIS WAVE WILL EVOLVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SURE TO INCREASE
BUT PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH TO SUGGEST VERY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
TOMORROW.

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA BY AFT AND ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA SOUTHWEST
PR. TAFS TO REMAINS VFR THROUGH AFT XCP PERHAPS MVFR AT TJMZ.
LOOKING FOR SHRA/TSRA TO ARRIVE AT TNCM/TKPK IN EVE AND TIST/TISX
BY 06Z. WINDS BLO FL150 ENE 16-27 KT BCMG E ON FRI.

.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN RATHER UNEVENTFUL AS THEY STAY AT OR
BELOW 20 KT/6 FT EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN THUNDERSTORMS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS OVR PR WILL MOVE WWD INTO HISPANIOLA FRI.
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TUTT WILL ESTABLISH NORTH OF PR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...MODIS AQUA AOD PRODUCT FROM WED SHOWED SAHARAN DUST
OVR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THIS SHOULD BE OVR PR TODAY. TUTT
AXIS OVR PR TODAY WITH ISOLD LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW PR
UNDER A NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW.

FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION ALONG 56W.
THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE LEEWARDS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST
PR AND USVI AFTER 06Z. MODELS SHOW A SHARP INCREASE IN PW AFTER
06Z TONIGHT WITH VALUES INCREASING MORE THAN HALF INCH IN LESS
THAN 6 HRS WITH PRETTY DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVR NORTHEAST PR. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
SQUALLS/THUNDERSTORMS FRI WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
MAINLY NORTHEAST PR WHERE SIG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY.

MID-LEVELS DRY OUT SAT AND SUN UNDER BUILDING SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE
BUT EXPECT TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVR NORTHWEST PR UNDER A
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW.

SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W EXPECTED TO
REACH THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH
ANOTHER TUTT FCST TO ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO BRING A TWO-DAY PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH SIG RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

TD FIVE IS VERY FAR AWAY MORE THAN 2000 MILES FROM THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN AND IS FCST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL WAVE BEYOND DAY 5
TUE ACCORDING TO NHC/WPC OFFICIAL MEDIUM RANGE FCST. EVEN IF IT
WERE TO IMPACT THE AREA IT WOULD NOT BE UNTIL NEXT FRI AUG 23.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES DURNG THE NEXT 24 HRS. SHRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW
SECTIONS OF PR BTWN 15/18Z-21Z. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING
SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TNCM/TKPK AFTER 16/00Z. ATTM...VCTS WERE
INCLUDED IN TNCM AND TKPK AFTER 15/23Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST UP TO 2 KT...THEN AFT 15/13Z AT AROUND 10
TO 20KTS...WITH GUSTS AT AROUND 20 TO 25KTS AT TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TISX.

MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT. POSSIBLE SQUALLS FRI
ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT INDUCED SFC TROUGH. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD OVR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 82 89 81 / 10 70 80 50
STT 90 82 90 82 / 10 70 70 30

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

54/71

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 150830
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS OVR PR WILL MOVE WWD INTO HISPANIOLA FRI.
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TUTT WILL ESTABLISH NORTH OF PR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...MODIS AQUA AOD PRODUCT FROM WED SHOWED SAHARAN DUST
OVR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THIS SHOULD BE OVR PR TODAY. TUTT
AXIS OVR PR TODAY WITH ISOLD LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW PR
UNDER A NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW.

MID-LEVELS DRY OUT SAT AND SUN UNDER BUILDING SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE
BUT EXPECT TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVR NORTHWEST PR UNDER A
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES DURNG THE NEXT 24 HRS. SHRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW
SECTIONS OF PR BTWN 15/18Z-21Z. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING
SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TNCM/TKPK AFTER 16/00Z. ATTM...VCTS WERE
INCLUDED IN TNCM AND TKPK AFTER 15/23Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST UP TO 2 KT...THEN AFT 15/13Z AT AROUND 10
TO 20KTS...WITH GUSTS AT AROUND 20 TO 25KTS AT TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TISX.

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT. POSSIBLE SQUALLS FRI
ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT INDUCED SFC TROUGH. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD OVR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 82 89 81 / 10 70 80 50
STT 90 82 90 82 / 10 70 70 30

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

27/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 140834
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
434 AM AST WED AUG 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BUILD OVR
PR LATER TODAY THEN MOVE WWD INTO HISPANIOLA THU. TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 40W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI. ANOTHER TUTT WILL
ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY QUIET TODAY AND THU UNDER UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE ON WEST SIDE OF TUTT. STILL HOWEVER CAN'T
RULE OUT A TSTM OR TWO ACROSS NORTHWEST PR TODAY AND SOUTHWEST PR
THU AS STEERING WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. MODIS AQUA AOD
PRODUCT FROM YESTERDAY SHOWS SOME SAHARAN DUST HAZE ACROSS THE
CNTRL ATLC ATTM AHEAD OF FRIDAY'S WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THIS WAVE
IS ACCOMPANIED BY DECENT AMOUNT OF 850 MB VORTICITY AND HIGH PW
AIR AS ANALYZED BY GFS AND AS SEEN BY BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL START REACHING ERN PR AND THE USVI
FRI MORNING AND COULD GENERATE SOME SQUALLY WX AS IT ENTERS SAL
OVER PR. WAVE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE HEAVY RAINS FRI
ESPECIALLY OVR NORTHEAST PR AND THE USVI.

THINGS QUIET DOWN A BIT SAT-SUN BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE AND UNDER
BUILDING SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE THEN TURNING WETTER LATE MON AND TUE
AS ANOTHER WAVE (INVEST 93L) INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER TUTT. WHILE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE BECOMING A TC IN THE NEXT 48 HRS THEY
ALSO SHOW WAVE WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE DUE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
AND STRONG SHEAR AS IT INTERACTS WITH TUTT. ANOTHER WAVE STILL OVR
THE AFRICAN CONTINENT HAS A LOT MORE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT TO BECOME A
STRONGER TC IN THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING WITH INVEST 93L BUT OVERALL
TREND IS FOR MORE ACTIVE WETTER PATTERN EARLY MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR POSBL WED AFT BTWN 14
/17Z-21Z AT TJMZ/TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS. EAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE VRB UP TO 6 KT AT TJSJ/TJPS/TJMZ AND TJBQ...THEN
AFT 14/12Z E-ESE WINDS AT AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS BLO 2KFT.

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SQUALLY WX
POSSIBLE FRI WITH ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL WAVE. SCEC'S IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 81 83 81 / 20 10 10 70
STT 83 82 82 81 / 10 10 10 70

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

27/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 110716
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
316 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

CU FIELD IN PLACE EXCEPT OVER AND JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS SOME CLOUDS...BUT A SFC HIGH MOVING IN
FROM THE W WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN IS SET TO MOVE
OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SUN. QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SURROUNDING CONVECTION. AS WITH MOST SHORTWAVES...MODELS DO NOT
HANDLE TO TIMING/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM UNIFORMLY...SO IT IS HARD TO
SAY EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL TRACK. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME CONVECTION. THE OTHER QUESTION
IS WITH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURROUNDING CONVECTION. THE NAM
HAS THE MOST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OF MOST OF THE MODELS...BUT IT
HAS SEEMED TO HAVE TOO MUCH MOISTURE FOR A WHILE NOW...SO IT WAS
SOMEWHAT DISCARDED FOR THIS FORECAST. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY OVER S
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL ADD
ADDITIONAL FORCING/...WHICH IS WHAT IS IN THE GRIDS. DID NOT CHANGE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SUBSTANTIALLY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

A QUIET WEEK IS IN THE MAKING FOR UPPER MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD BE THE RULE...THOUGH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES COULD BE A
BIT PESKY WITH CLOUDS AROUND MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM
TO NEAR NORMAL...WITH SEVERAL CHILLY NIGHTS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN AXIS OF AN EASTERN CANADIAN
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH MAINTAINING A STEADY APPROACH TO
THE STRUCTURE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. THERE ARE SEVERAL DISTINCT AXES
EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN TROUGH...AND EACH SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE CWA
IN ABOUT 12 HOUR INTERVALS STARTING MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN PLAYER
IN THIS SERIES IS CURRENTLY MOVING SSW INTO FAR NORTHWEST HUDSON BAY
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN IMPRESSIVE VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL
HUDSON BAY. BOTH ARE CLEARLY APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SAT...SO SEE NO
REASON TO QUESTION MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH TIMING. THE TROUGH SHOULD
BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z MONDAY...AND EASTERN UPPER MI
AT 00Z TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE PRESENT WITH MODEST H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND H7 FRONTOGENESIS. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND 600MB BEHIND SUNDAYS SYSTEM AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT WILL LIMIT PCPN COVERAGE. LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL ASSIST
PCPN DEVELOPMENT...BUT STABILIZING NW GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD CONFINE
BEST COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND ALONG LAKE MI. THUNDER
POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MUCAPE STRUGGLING TO REACH 500 J/KG
NORTH OF GRB. MOST OF THIS CAPE WILL BE BELOW THE 0C LEVEL...SO KEPT
THUNDER AT SLIGHT CHANCE OVER JUST THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ANY PRECIP WILL DIMINISH WITH THE PASSAGE
OF AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY
EVENING. A SECOND MID-LEVEL WAVE CLOSER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CROSSING THE CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE NAM AND
ECMWF ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS TROUGH AND ACTUALLY KICK OFF SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST TUESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE QUITE DEPLETED OF MOISTURE AS NOTED BY
PWATS OF ONLY 0.7 INCHES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. THIS DOES MAKE MIN
TEMPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT A LITTLE HARDER TO PIN DOWN. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN MID-CLOUD COVER...OPTED NOT TO CHANGE MUCH AND LEAVE
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S INTERIOR WEST TO THE LOW 50S ALONG
THE SHORE. QUITE A COOL TUESDAY WILL FOLLOW UNDER H8 TEMPS OF ONLY 4
TO 7C...COOLEST EAST. MIXING SHOULD REACH THE H8 LEVEL...SO TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70F SOUTH CENTRAL. AN EXCELLENT MODIS SST
CAPTURE TODAY SHOWS LAKE TEMPS AROUND 50F IN THE NORTHERN OPEN
WATERS...AND MID 50S IN THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS. SO EVEN
WITH A NORTH WIND...THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK INTO
THE LOW 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
WESTERN UPPER MI TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. LOW PWAT UNDER 0.5 INCHES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
CONTINUED USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THAT HAS PERFORMED WELL ON
SIMILAR NIGHTS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. EXPECT 40S FOR ALL BUT THE
IMMEDIATE SHORE. SOME TYPICAL INTERIOR WEST COLD SPOTS COULD EVEN
SEE UPPER 30S.

A THIRD WAVE WILL SKIM THE NE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LITTLE MOISTURE
AND MINIMAL LIFT WILL BRING ONLY SCATTERED MID-CLOUDS. ANOTHER WAVE
WILL FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL SUCCUMB TO THE
SAME LIMITING FACTORS. CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE AS LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS ON THE BACKSIDE THE SFC RIDGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A TROUGH DROPPING SE
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THOUGH GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING MORE CONSISTENCY...WILL CONTINUE CONSENSUS APPROACH TO
PRECIP CHANCES FOR NOW...WHICH SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

EXCEPT FOR SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT IWD EARLY THIS MRNG...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. A PASSING
DISTURBANCE MAY CAUSE SOME -SHRA THIS AFTN IN THE PRESENCE OF
DAYTIME HEATING AT SAW AND PERHAPS IWD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LO TO
INCLUDE MORE THAN VCSH IN THE TAFS ATTM. ANY -SHRA WL END BY SUNSET
WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...BUT AGAIN...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESUME CONTROL OF THE
WRN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO KEEP WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KHUN 110732
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
232 AM CDT SUN AUG 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
ARE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE (LESS HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS) FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDER SPREAD FOG THIS MORNING, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
GOES/MODIS SATELLITE TRENDS AND OBS. THUS FAR, NO OB SITES ARE
REPORTING DENSE FOG SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

PWS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 0.10-0.20 INCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT HAVE
VERY LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE WE SHOULD NOT SEE A SIMILAR OCCURRENCE
OF NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY BE
GREATER WITH THE LACK OF MORNING HIGH CLOUDS. A RIBBON OF HIGHER
VORTICITY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN AR EWD THRU TN AND KY. SO
WE MAY SEE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH PRODUCE POSSIBLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT PUSH SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AS WELL, INSTIGATING MORE
CONVECTION INTO TONIGHT.

THE THREAT OF MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF VORTICITY IMPULSES TRACK
ESEWD. THE REPETITIVE NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO THE DEEP MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE WILL BE BRISKER MOVEMENT OF
ACTIVITY WITH THE INCREASED MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HAVE CONTINUED A
MORE OR LESS SPLIT ON TEMPS FOR TODAY (ALTHOUGH THAT HINGES ON
PRECIP/CLOUD DEVELOPMENT). KMSL HIT 93F YESTERDAY AFTER ALL. WE
GRADUALLY LEAN CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET NUMBERS MON-WED GIVEN THE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WIDER SPREAD PRECIP.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST JUST BECAME LESS CONFIDENT WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF. BOTH LET GO OF THE IDEA WE'LL SEE MUCH OF A DRIER PUSH OF AIR
IN OUR AREA THIS WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS. THIS TROF IS PROGGED TO MORE OR LESS PARK ITSELF SOMEWHERE OVER
THE SE U.S. NEXT WEEKEND. WHETHER THE AXIS SHIFTS JUST FAR ENOUGH SE
TO DRY US OUT IS STILL VERY DEBATABLE.

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 AM CDT SUN AUG 11 2013/
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST REASONING.
GENERALLY QUIET WX CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED AROUND HSV/MSL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST NOCTURNAL
CONCENTRATION OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
THAT SAID...THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT
BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED -- BUT CHANCES ARE TOO REMOTE TO INCLUDE IN
TAF. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE REGION...WITH TEMPO
INCLUDED FOR IFR VSBY BTWN 11/10-13Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
INVOF TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN BTWN 11/14-15Z AND WILL CARRY VCTS/TSRA THRU
12/01Z. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SW AT 5-10 KNOTS.

70/DD

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 88 69 87 71 / 70 20 70 60
SHOALS 89 70 89 71 / 70 20 70 60
VINEMONT 86 68 85 70 / 70 20 70 60
FAYETTEVILLE 88 68 84 71 / 70 20 70 60
ALBERTVILLE 86 68 86 70 / 70 20 70 60
FORT PAYNE 85 69 85 69 / 70 20 70 60

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 100900
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST SAT AUG 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS
ELONGATES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

.DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED TUTT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH JUST AREAS OF LOCALLY INDUCED ACTIVITY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE FORECAST AREA
BECOMES UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT SIDE OF RETROGRESSING TUTT.
ALTHOUGH...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT BULK OF MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOCAL EFFECT TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST BY MIDWEEK...WITH STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TUTT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BETTER MOISTURE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCT PASSING SHRA
EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...VCSH WRITTEN ON
TAF. SHRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCT TODAY WHILE TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER 10/17Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS IN AND AROUND TJMZ...TEMPO
NOT INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY...VCTS WRITTEN INSTEAD.
SFC WIND TO REMAIN FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND
10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS.

.MARINE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.FIRE WEATHER...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FUELS ACROSS THE SOUTH
ARE EXTREMELY DRY AS SEEN ON RECENT TRENDS ON MODIS/VIIRS IMAGERY
AND KBDI ANALYSIS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE QUICKLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY UNDER INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL...VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PR SAT AND
SUN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AT NEARLY 20 MPH.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 89 78 / 20 0 0 30
STT 89 81 90 81 / 20 0 0 40

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

25/23

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 100131 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
931 PM AST FRI AUG 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL RETROGRESS TO
THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SECONDARY WEAK TUTT AXIS
MOVING FROM THE TROP ATLC TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL WORK INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND
SAT UNDER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON WEST SIDE OF TUTT
LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN AREAL CVRG OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND SAT. WILL LOWER
POPS GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT AND JUST ISOLD SAT AS PW GETS PRETTY LOW
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. TUTT THEN MOVES TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA SUN AND QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR NORTH WILL DEEP
MOISTURE WILL GET DRAWN NORTHWARD. RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE TO KEEP BEST MOISTURE SOUTH
OVR CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. LATEST BLENDED TPW
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TEND TO SUGGEST THAT BEST WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT OVERALL EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN NIGHT AND MON ESPECIALLY OVER CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTHEAST PR.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TUE WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WED-THU OF WEST SIDE OF ANOTHER TUTT. SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND BUT OVERALL WX CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RATHER TRANQUIL MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TROP ATLC AWFUL QUIET AT THIS
TIME.

.AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT SHRA TONITE BUT IS A STRETCH TO INCLUDE MVFR
IN ANY TAF. SCT SHRA/TSRA WESTERN PR SAT AFT WI SOME OBSCD MTNS.
WINDS BLO FL150 E 15-25 KT THRU SAT.

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION.

.FIRE WEATHER...FUELS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE EXTREMELY DRY AS SEEN
ON RECENT TRENDS ON MODIS/VIIRS IMAGERY AND KBDI ANALYSIS. MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO ERODE QUICKLY TOMORROW UNDER INCREASING LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTH
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PR SAT AND SUN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AT
NEARLY 20 MPH.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 88 80 89 / 20 30 40 50
STT 81 89 81 90 / 30 30 40 40

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

54/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 021856
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST FRI AUG 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL RELOCATE OVER
HISPANIOLA BY TUE. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE AREA MID
NEXT WEEK. SAL WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SUN.

.DISCUSSION...DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST OVER PR ATTM PER VISUAL
OBS...GOES VIS AND MODIS AOD AND DUST PRODUCTS. SAL WILL CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH SAT WITH H85 TEMPS EXPECTED TO SOAR TO 22C
RESULTING IN VERY HOT AND/OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES SAT. TEMPS
LIKELY TO REACH MID 90S.

ON SUN...SKIES EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEARER AS SAL BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. BY MON...IT APPEARS SAL AND ASSOCIATED INVERSION WILL
WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN PR. HOWEVER...STILL LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT AREAL CVRG OF SHOWERS.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE AREA WED AND GIVE US THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THIS IS ABOUT A DAY
FASTER THAN YDAY ATTM. GRADUAL DRYING EXPECTED THU THRU FRI.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA LOWERING VSBYS. LVL WINDS ESE
15 TO 25 KT.

.MARINE...DUST HAZE WILL BE THE ONLY THING SIGNIFICANT TODAY AND
SAT WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEARER SUN. SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT AND
WINDS 15-20 KT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 89 / 0 0 0 0
STT 82 91 82 91 / 10 0 10 0

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

23/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 011919
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST THU AUG 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT WX FEATURE OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS AND MOVE INTO
HISPANIOLA NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION
MID NEXT WEEK. SAL WILL ESTABLISH OVR THE REGION OVR THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...SAL ALREADY APPROACHING 60W THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
ON CONVENTIONAL VIS IMAGERY AND MODIS AOD PRODUCTS. AREA WILL ALSO
BECOME UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT SIDE OF TUTT ACROSS THE CNTRL
ATLC LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. IN ADDITION...AREA
IS UNDER DOWNWARD PHASE OF MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND HOT TEMPERATURES
OVR THE NEXT 3-6 DAYS. NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL WAVE
OVR THE ERN ATLC. THIS WAVE HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION AND IS
EMBBEDED IN VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE.
MODELS HAVE TRIED PAST FEW DAYS TO DEVELOP THIS WAVE BUT
APPARENTLY THE STRONG SAL LAYER AND DOWNWARD PHASE OF THE MJO WILL
BE BIG INHIBITING FACTORS. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE INTO OUR
AREA WED NIGH-THU AND BE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

.AVIATION...MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH AN INDUCE TROUGH
THAT MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY DISSIPATED OR MOVED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT SHWR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER
THE ISLANDS. THEREFORE...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...A DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED LATE
FRIDAY THAN COULD LOWER THE VSBYS.

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT. DUST HAZE WILL BE
MAIN DOMINANT WX

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 88 82 90 / 10 10 10 10
STT 82 90 82 91 / 20 20 10 10

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

11/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 250941
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
541 AM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO QUEBEC WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LIKELY ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE AN INTERMISSION FROM THE TYPICAL LATE
JULY SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES AND ASSOC COOL/DRY CANADIAN AIR MASS IS SITTING OVR
CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS
SINCE MID-JUNE. 09Z READINGS RANGE FROM THE L/M40S IN THE VALLEYS OF
THE NORTH...TO THE M50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. MODIS 11-3.7UM
IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF DENSE FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS
NORTH OF I-80...A RESULT OF THE COOL TEMPS AND WARM RIVER/STREAM
WATERS. BASED ON A MODIS CLOUD THICKNESS OF ARND 800FT...FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY ARND 2HRS AFTER SUNRISE...OR 12Z.

EARLY AM WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DEVELOP SFC LOW OFF THE NC
COAST...WHICH WILL PASS WELL EAST OF PA LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE LG
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...DRY AIR ASSOC WITH SFC RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OH VLY WILL
PROVIDE CENTRAL PA WITH FAIR WX TODAY AND TONIGHT. CAN/T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A LATE DAY SHRA ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE PWATS A BIT
HIGHER. HOWEVER...ODDS OF ANY SPOT SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN IS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE FCST.

IR LOOP SHOWS CIRRUS BEGINNING TO BE DRAWN NORTH TOWARD EASTERN PA
AHEAD OF DEEPENING TROF. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE
MOST CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES...WHILE AREAS TO THE NW ENJOY
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. GEFS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
70S THIS AFTN WITH THE COOLEST READINGS RELATIVE TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE NERLY FLOW OFF ATLANTIC SHOULD HOLD
READINGS IN THE M70S TODAY...A GOOD 10F BLW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

ANOTHER REFRESHINGLY COOL NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES TO NR 60F ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST. THE COOL TEMPS...CALM WIND AND WARM RIVER/STREAM WATER
SHOULD RESULT IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC LOW LOCATED OFF THE NRN-MID ATLC COAST AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL GET PULLED NWWD ACROSS CAPE COD AND DOWNEAST MAINE BY
EARLY SATURDAY...IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS/DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTING FROM THE UPPER MS VLY INTO THE UPPER/WRN GREAT
LAKES. ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES 500MB HEIGHT ANOMS WILL FALL -3SD
BELOW THE MEAN FOR LATE JULY ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
MIDWEST.

THE DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY ACRS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON DAY 3/SATURDAY...WITH A MODERATELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU THE OH VLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST STATES.
THE SFC LOW WILL BECOME OCCLUDED/VERTICALLY STACKED COINCIDENT
WITH THE UPPER LOW...WITH A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SLOWING ITS
FORWARD ADVANCE AS IT CROSSES THE OH VLY. THE COMBINATION OF
MULTIPLE LEAD SHORTWAVES/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND NWD MSTR ADVECTION
OF 1-1.5 INCH PWATS SHOULD LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THRU THE
DAY. SPC OUTLOOKS SUGGESTS LIMITED SVR POTENTIAL GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND UNFAVORABLE WIND PROFILES.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROFFING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH WHAT
IT OTHERWISE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S.

THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES LOOK TO SUPPORT SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES
AT THIS POINT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND AND
THE FROPAS...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITIES WILL BE SLOWLY
INCREASING...BRINGING INCREASING POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVES/FRONTS MEET THE HIER TEMPS AND MOISTURE.

BEHIND THE FRONTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL AND POPS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...POSSIBLY MORE NOTICEABLY
COOLER AND DRIER THAN THESE RECENT DAYS. A RETURN TO SHOWERS/TSTMS
COULD COME AS QUICKLY AS NEXT WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE AREA.

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
SWRD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL PROVIDE THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL PA WITH VFR CONDS AND LGT WINDS THIS MORNING. THE ONLY
POTENTIAL CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF
NORTHWEST PA. 11-3.9UM SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE VALLEYS
SURROUNDING BFD SOCKED IN WITH FOG AT 09Z...WHILE BFD REMAIN VFR.
STILL CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF VSBY DIP AT BFD BTWN 09Z-11Z. AFTER
THAT...ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ENSURE VFR
CONDS AND A LIGHT NNE WIND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT-SUN...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 241638
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1238 PM AST WED JUL 24 2013

.UPDATE...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. SHOWER COVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS TUTT APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL PR AND USVI TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND TJMZ THROUGH ABOUT 24/22Z. SHRA MAY AFFECT TNCM AND
TKPK THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MVFR CONDS.

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 18 KNOTS OR LESS. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS TOMORROW...AS TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM AST WED JUL 24 2013/

SYNOPSIS...DEEP TUTT WILL BECOME DOMINANT WX FEATURE OVR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. TUTT THEN WILL BEGIN TO FILL/WEAKEN SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIGDE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. INVEST 98L LIKELY TO
BECOME TD4 LATER THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...MODIS AQUA AOD PRODUCT FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED ANOTHER
BATCH OF SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. OVERALL...STILL
DRY TODAY UNDER WITH VERY LIMITED IF ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS
THEN BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THU-FRI UNDER
INFLUENCE OF TUTT WITH NMRS SHRA/TSRA OVER WRN HALF OF PR. SOME
DRYING SAT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS
WITH THE DRYING. TUTT ALSO WILL BEGIN TO FILL WITH LESS INFLUENCE
OVR THE AREA.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS NOW FCST FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT UNDER
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WELL AHEAD OF WHAT IS LIKELY TO
BECOME TD4. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE AREA
MON BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL
MON NIGHT AND TUE. WHILE THE SYSTEM LOOKS PRETTY GOOD THIS MORNING
ONLY THE 00Z GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM SURVIVING OVR THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS. MAIN INHIBITING FACTORS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
LOOK TO BE COOL WATERS IN THE SHORT TERM AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
DAYS 3-5. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH AS GFS SUGGESTS
SOME HEAVY RAINS APPEAR POSSIBLE NOW MAINLY MON NIGHT-TUE TIME FRAME.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC FOR MORE DETAILS INTO THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TJMZ...FROM 24/16Z TO 24/21Z. LLVL WINDS
EASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 KT.

MARINE...SCT TSTMS THU-SAT UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT. INVEST 98L
LIKELY TO BECOME TD4 LATER TODAY AND BRING SQUALLY WX TO ATLC
OFFSHORE WATERS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 79 / 10 20 20 20
STT 88 80 89 80 / 10 20 20 30

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

23/25

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 240816
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
416 AM AST WED JUL 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP TUTT WILL BECOME DOMINANT WX FEATURE OVR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. TUTT THEN WILL BEGIN TO FILL/WEAKEN SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIGDE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. INVEST 98L LIKELY TO
BECOME TD4 LATER THIS MORNING.

.DISCUSSION...MODIS AQUA AOD PRODUCT FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED ANOTHER
BATCH OF SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. OVERALL...STILL
DRY TODAY UNDER WITH VERY LIMITED WITH ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS
THEN BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR MOIST DEEP CONVECTION THU-FRI UNDER
INFLUENCE OF TUTT WITH NMRS CONVECTION OVER WRN HALF OF PR. SOME
DRYING SAT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS
WITH THE DRYING. TUTT ALSO WILL BEGIN TO FILL WITH LESS INFLUENCE
OVR THE AREA.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS NOW FCST FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT UNDER
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WELL AHEAD OF WHAT IS LIKELY TO
BECOME TD4. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE AREA
MON BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL
MON NIGHT AND TUE. WHILE THE SYSTEM LOOKS PRETTY GOOD THIS MORNING
ONLY THE 00Z GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM SURVIVING OVR THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS. MAIN INHIBITING FACTORS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
LOOK TO BE COOL WATERS IN THE SHORT TERM AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
DAYS 3-5. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH AS GFS SUGGESTS
SOME HEAVY RAINS APPEAR POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT-TUE. PLEASE
REFER TO NHC FOR MORE DETAILS INTO THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN PR...MAINLY TJMZ...FROM 24/16Z TO
24/21Z. LLVL WINDS EASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 KT.

.MARINE...SCT TSTMS THU-SAT UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT. INVEST 98L
LIKELY TO BECOME TD4 LATER TODAY AND BRING SQUALLY WX TO ATLC
OFFSHORE WATERS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 79 / 10 20 20 20
STT 88 80 89 80 / 10 20 20 30

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

05/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 231541 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1141 AM AST TUE JUL 23 2013

.UPDATE...FORECAST INTACT WITH TRACES OF SHOWERS FORMING
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EASTERN ISLANDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
PUERTO RICO. 23/12Z SOUNDING WAS DRY...LESS THAN 33 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BETWEEN 6 AND 13 KFT. STILL LOOK FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS AFTERNOON HEATING PROGRESSES...BUT THESE SHOULD
DIE OUT AFTER 6 PM AST.

.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY...BUT CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY REFLECTS THIS. NEXT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
NOW SEEN NEAR 23 WEST.

.AVIATION...VISIBILITIES ARE 8 MILES OR BETTER IN A SAHARAN DUST
EPISODE. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOMORROW. LLVL WINDS
EAST AT 10 TO 20 KT.

.MARINE...SEAS BELOW CAUTION LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAZY...
BUT VISIBILITIES ARE ABOVE 7 MILES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM AST TUE JUL 23 2013/

SYNOPSIS...SUB-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU TODAY THEN TUTT
WILL BECOME DOMINANT WX FEATURE WED-FRI. RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO DOMINATE TODAY AND WED.

DISCUSSION...VERY QUIET TODAY UNDER SAHARAN AIR LAYER. MODIS AQUA
AOD IMAGE FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DUST HAZE OVR THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THAT SHOULD BE OVER US TODAY. WEAKENING SAL
AND LESS HAZY WED. ON THU...CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS WRN PR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RETROGRESSING
TUTT WITH BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI.

WX IMPROVES SAT-SUN UNDER WEAKENING TUTT AND BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 98L WILL REACH THE
AREA NEXT MON AND TUE. ALTHOUGH NHC CURRENTLY SHOWS 40% CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TC IN THE NEXT 48 HRS NONE OF THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A TC WITH INCREASING
HOSTILE CONDITIONS BEGINNING THU NIGHT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DO NOT SHOW ANY SIG POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WITH THIS
WAVE AT THIS TIME EITHER.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME HZ PRESENT DUE TO SAL ENTERING THE REGION TODAY.
VCTS/SHRA MAY CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TJMZ...STARTING AT AROUND 23/16Z. LATEST TJSJ 23/00Z SOUNDING
SHOWED LLVL WINDS FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-20 KTS.

MARINE...SEAS 3-5 KT AND WINDS 15 KT. DUST HAZE WILL RESTRICT
VSBYS BETWEEN 7-9SM.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 80 89 80 / 0 20 20 10
STT 89 80 89 80 / 0 20 20 20

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

12/10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 230754
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
354 AM AST TUE JUL 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU TODAY THEN TUTT
WILL BECOME DOMINANT WX FEATURE WED-FRI. RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO DOMINATE TODAY AND WED.

.DISCUSSION...VERY QUIET TODAY UNDER SAHARAN AIR LAYER. MODIS AQUA
AOD IMAGE FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DUST HAZE OVR THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THAT SHOULD BE OVER US TODAY. WEAKENING SAL
AND LESS HAZY WED. ON THU...CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS WRN PR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RETROGRESSING
TUTT WITH BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME HZ PRESENT DUE TO SAL ENTERING THE REGION TODAY.
VCTS/SHRA MAY CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TJMZ...STARTING AT AROUND 23/16Z. LATEST TJSJ 23/00Z SOUNDING
SHOWED LLVL WINDS FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-20 KTS.

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 KT AND WINDS 15 KT. DUST HAZE WILL RESTRICT
VSBYS BETWEEN 7-9SM.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 80 89 80 / 0 20 20 10
STT 89 80 89 80 / 0 20 20 20

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

05/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 200201 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1001 PM AST FRI JUL 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TUTT LOW WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON.

.DISCUSSION...QUIET WX OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING HAZE AND
DUST BASED ON MODIS AOD PRODUCT. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT
AROUND 10-20 KTS.

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS 15-20 KT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 89 / 10 10 20 20
STT 80 90 80 90 / 10 10 20 20

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

11/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 120008
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
808 PM AST THU JUL 11 2013

.UPDATE...ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EASTERN AREAS FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT OTHERWISE LITTLE TO ADJUST.

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PR ENDED AS QUICKLY AS THEY
STARTED AND REMNANT CLOUDS ARE NOW GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. LOW
LEVEL THETA-E AND ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
LATER AS A BIT OF MOISTURE IS APPROACHING FROM NORTHEAST. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WELL EAST AND NORTH OF USVI AND SOME STREAMERS OVER
CARIBBEAN WATERS INDICATE WE WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY WITHOUT
SHOWERS.

SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AND MODELS SHOW SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT ON FRI.

.AVIATION...ALL LOCAL FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER A DRIER AIR MASS. HOWEVER A
DENSE SAHARAN DUST LAYER WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AS LOW
AS 7 TO 10 MILES AT THE SFC FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE
TO HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF BAHAMAS RELAXING AND LIFTING TOWARDS
NORTHEAST. RESULTING SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 132 PM AST THU JUL 11 2013/

SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU FRI. TUTT ACROSS
THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BY SUN.
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD TUE.

DISCUSSION...MODIS TERRA AOD PRODUCT FROM THE NEXTSAT WEBSITE
SHOWS SAHARAN DUST AT ITS PEAK OVR THE AREA TODAY WITH CLEARER
SKIES TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. SO EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE OVER 10SM FRI. OVERALL...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRI WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
ON SAT...THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE UNSTABLE AS AREA BECOMES UNDER
INFLUENCE OF TUTT SO I EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO POP UP.
MORE NUMEROUS AND DEEPER CONVECTION IS LIKELY SUN AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AND AREA BECOMES UNDER FVRBL EAST SIDE OF TUTT.
TUTT BEGINS TO FILL MON AND MOVE FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS
SO EXPECT A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION MON. ON TUE AND
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...VERY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA LIKELY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA THU NIGHT BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
MODEL TRENDS ARE SHOWING LESS CURVATURE WITH THIS WAVE THAN PAST
FEW DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE WIND SURGE.

AVIATION...ALL LOCAL FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER A DRIER AIR MASS. HOWEVER A DENSE SAHARAN DUST LAYER
WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AS LOW AS 7 TO 10 MILES AT THE
SFC FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT THROUGH THE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.
SCT-NMRS SAT AND SUN.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 87 79 87 / 0 0 30 20
STT 79 88 79 86 / 10 10 30 10

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

05/54

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 111732
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
132 PM AST THU JUL 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU FRI. TUTT ACROSS
THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BY SUN.
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD TUE.

.DISCUSSION...MODIS TERRA AOD PRODUCT FROM THE NEXTSAT WEBSITE
SHOWS SAHARAN DUST AT ITS PEAK OVR THE AREA TODAY WITH CLEARER
SKIES TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. SO EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE OVER 10SM FRI. OVERALL...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRI WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
ON SAT...THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE UNSTABLE AS AREA BECOMES UNDER
INFLUENCE OF TUTT SO I EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO POP UP.
MORE NUMEROUS AND DEEPER CONVECTION IS LIKELY SUN AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AND AREA BECOMES UNDER FVRBL EAST SIDE OF TUTT.
TUTT BEGINS TO FILL MON AND MOVE FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS
SO EXPECT A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION MON. ON TUE AND
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...VERY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA LIKELY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA THU NIGHT BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
MODEL TRENDS ARE SHOWING LESS CURVATURE WITH THIS WAVE THAN PAST
FEW DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE WIND SURGE.

.AVIATION...ALL LOCAL FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER A DRIER AIR MASS. HOWEVER A DENSE SAHARAN DUST LAYER
WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AS LOW AS 7 TO 10 MILES AT THE
SFC FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT THROUGH THE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.
SCT-NMRS SAT AND SUN.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 87 79 87 / 10 0 30 20
STT 79 88 79 86 / 10 0 30 10

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

72/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 261324
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
524 AM AKDT WED JUN 26 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CERTAIN UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE NEXT 70 HOURS. HOWEVER...AS
OBSERVED IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE ECMWF TENDS TO BE COOLER
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND NAM. IN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ALL THE
MODELS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA WITH
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND AND MOVING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TODAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD EXTEND FROM ALASKAN RANGE TOWARDS MCGRATH THEN NORTHWARD
TOWARDS HUSLIA AND CURVE TOWARD UMIAT. LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS AND
NAM MODEL FOR THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ALL
MODELS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING AND GETTING PUSHED EASTWARD
BACK INTO CANADA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
BERING STRAIT AND MOVES ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
GFS AND NAM THEN BRING THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE MOVING
TOWARDS MACKENZIE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTH IS BRINGS GENERATES SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. AGAIN
LEANING TOWARDS THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE NAM AND GFS WITH THE
ECMWF SEEMING TO BE A BIT OVERDONE AND AGGRESSIVE THE THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXTENDING FROM THE ARCTIC COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

NORTH SLOPE...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA. IT WAS ANTICIPATED THAT THE WINDS
WOULD HAVE SHIFTED BY NOW WITH MORE OFFSHORE FLOW AND BREAKING UP
OF THE FOG AND STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...IT CONTINUES TO LINGER AND
MODELS AND GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING LATER THIS MORNING AROUND 18Z.
UNTIL THEN THERE IS DENSE FOG ACROSS BARTER ISLAND WITH RAIN AND
DRIZZLE EXTENDING FROM BARROW TOWARDS BARTER ISLAND. AGAIN THIS
SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE ON FRIDAY.

WEST COAST...YESTERDAYS EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUED
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PARTICULARLY EXTENDING FROM MCGRATH
NORTHWARD WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UP THROUGH AREAS
NORTH OF SHAKTOOLIK AND INTO BUCKLAND. THE HYBRID SATELLITE IR
IMAGERY THAT COMBINES GOES IMAGES WITH THE MODIS OR VIIRS POLAR
ORBITAL IMAGES SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -45C WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF KOYUK AND -44C WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF HAYCOCK. THUS DECENT THUNDERSTORMS THAT
CONTINUED OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING
FURTHER EAST EXTENDING FROM MCGRATH TOWARD GALENA AND HUSLIA.
ALONG THE COASTLINE THERE WILL BE THE TYPICAL STRATUS WITH AREAS
OF FOG...IN PARTICULAR SOME AREAS OF VISIBILITY DROPPING TO BELOW
ONE MILE AT TIME OVER WHALES AND NEAR CAPE ROMANZOFF AND
SCAMMONS BAY. THIS FOG SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

CENTRAL AND INTERIOR...AS MENTIONED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
THERE WILL BE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HEAT ON WEDNESDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SOUNDING AT FAIRBANKS INDICATED 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
18.2C COMPARED TO THE 16.1C YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT ONLY EXPECTING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO BE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
BUT ANTICIPATE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT SINCE THE
RECORD MAXIMUM LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 76F DEGREES SET IN
1915...WHICH WAS SUSPICIOUS. IN ANY CASE...THE AIRPORT IS
CURRENTLY AT 69F DEGREES EVEN WITH THE STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH
THE TEMPERATURES DROP DOWN BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE WARMER AIR GETS PUSHED EAST. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTERIOR
ALASKA THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. THIS VOLATILE SITUATION IS A
RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES...GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS OF 20 MPH... AND TINDER DRY FUELS.

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ216-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-
AKZ224.
&&

MAK JUN 13

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 200939
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
539 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SUMMERTIME PATTERN. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SHOULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CHILLY MORNING IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA...THE RESULT OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC COOL/DRY AIR MASS. 08Z SFC OBS SHOW SOME OF
THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS HAVE FALLEN TO THE L40S. AS OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AM...EXPECT THE COOL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY WARM
RIVER/STREAM WATERS TO RESULT IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE DEEP
VALLEYS NORTH OF I-80.

AS SFC HIGH SLIPS OFF THE NJ COAST...A RETURN SSE FLOW SHOULD DRAW
LOW LVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIR AMT OF
CU BY AFTN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. THE LATEST NAM/RUC AND HI-RES
WRF DEPICT ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING INVOF THE LAUREL MTNS AND
S-CNTRL RIDGES WITHIN NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
PROBABLY DOESN/T WARRANT AN EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE FCST...WILL
INCREASE POPS TO ARND 10 PCT DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA.

UNDER PT-MOSUNNY SKIES...TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEG WARMER
THAN WED BASED ON SREF 8H TEMPS WARMING ARND 2C.

GIVEN LACK OF ANY LG SCALE FORCING...ANY ISOLD EVENING SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES SHOULD DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...ONLY CONCERN MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG. LIGHTEST
WIND AND BEST POTENTIAL OF FOG APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE W MTNS.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE REGION
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED LOW
ROTATING NEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA.
THIS WILL MARK THE START OF A VERY WARM/HUMID STRETCH OF WEATHER
FOR THE LOCAL AREA - WHICH IS ARRIVING ON SCHEDULE WITH THE
OFFICIAL START OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER ON FRIDAY /SEE CLIMATE
SECTION/.

APPRECIABLE RNFL WILL BE HARD TO COME BY IN THIS LATE-SUMMERTIME
PATTERN...WITH MDL DATA SHOWING AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. CAPPING INVERSION/WARM 700MB TEMPS AND OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING SHOULD KEEP AIRMASS CONVECTION TO MINIMAL CVRG. CONSENSUS
OF MDL DATA FOCUSES PCPN TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA - ALONG WEST-
EAST FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES EXTENDING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD THRU THE GRT LKS INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES. OVERALL EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL MAX/MINS...LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL AND SOME FOG IN THE MORNINGS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDS WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH THE DAILY CHC FOR
AFTN SHOWER OR TSTM. GLOBAL MDL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADING /MOVG WWD/ INTO THE FOUR CORNERS DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD ACRS THE
REGION AROUND DAY 7-8. THE 20/00Z GEFS AND ECENS SHOW A WRN
RIDGE/ERN TROUGH 500MB CONFIGURATION HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
DEEP RIVER VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN 5SM
VSBYS AT UNV AND LNS...ALL AIRFIELDS ARE VFR AT 09Z AND EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDS AFTER 10Z WITH SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OFF THE NJ COAST SHOULD SUPPLY VFR CONDS AND
LGT WINDS TO THE AREA LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLD PM TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM
JST AND AOO NORTH THRU UNV.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE W MTNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN-MON...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

.CLIMATE...
ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER BEGINS AT 104 AM EDT ON FRIDAY JUNE 21ST.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 142029
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT 12Z NAM SOLUTION WHICH CARRIES MCS ACROSS SRN
WI AFT MIDNIGHT. NOT DOING A VERY GOOD JOB WITH WEAKENING
CONVECTION OVER SRN IA/NRN MO ATTM. ANY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MCV
FROM THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF SRN WI THIS EVENING.

MORE CONCERNED ABOUT ACTIVITY UPSTREAM OVER NW IA. MCV FROM THIS
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT SOUTHWEST WI LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SAT. STILL
EXPECT STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TO AFFECT SRN WI
OVERNIGHT AS PWAT VALUES DOUBLE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON PIVOTING WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS SRN WI LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WL LIKELY CARRY WEAKENING
CONVECTION ACROSS TRI-STATE AREA AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WI.

EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION TO REFIRE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MOVES ACROSS SRN WI
IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. BY THIS
TIME...DEWPTS WL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S RESULTING IN SFC
BASED CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. SHEAR NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MULTI-CELLS AND ISOLD
SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED CLOUDS FROM MORNING MCS CLEAR DURING THE
LATE MRNG AND AFTN.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH QPF PLACEMENT AND
SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS NOW
KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE QPF JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL BRING A BLOB OF
QPF THROUGH PORTIONS OR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING...THEN
TAPER OFF LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO 850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE POINTING INTO THE
AREA AT 00Z SUNDAY PER ECMWF/CANADIAN...THOUGH NAM/GFS HAVE IT
POINTING FURTHER TO THE EAST. ALL MODELS SHOW RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF 250MB JET STREAK PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH THE 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSING EAST THROUGH
THE AREA.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM SHOWING MODEST MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS...WITH THE GFS SOUNDINGS MORE MOIST. ELEVATED CAPES OF
500 TO 900 J/KG WITH DECENT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR ON GFS...LESS SO
ON ADJUSTED NAM SOUNDINGS. SEVERE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE LINEAR MCS
MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING...PER SPC DAY
1 OUTLOOK.

LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AND KEPT HIGH END CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING...TAPERING OFF LATER IN THE NIGHT...LINGERING IN THE FAR
SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH
WHERE EXACTLY ANY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH...SO
KEEP UP WITH LATER FORECASTS.

NICE DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LAKE
BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THERE.

NEXT SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPES WITH MODEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST WERE ADDED...WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY. MAY HAVE TO RAISE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS
GIVEN STRONG SHORTWAVE AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. A
SEVERE RISK IS POSSIBLE MONDAY IF BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER SMALL CHANCES FOR
LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AND
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A
STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH ONSHORE WINDS EACH DAY KEEPING LAKESHORE
AREAS SOMEWHAT COOLER.

THESE MODELS THEN DIFFER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A WARMER SOLUTION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING THE REGION NORTHEAST OF THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. USED
CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. INCREASING THREAT OF
CONVECTION AFFECTING KMSN AROUND AND AFTER 06Z THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. ISOLD CONVECTION MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT ERN TAF
SITES EARLY SAT. CIGS MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR FOR A TIME SAT MRNG AS
WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER SAT AFTN AND EVE.

.MARINE...

SOME CONCERN REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN LIGHTER LOW LEVEL WIND REGIME AND INCREASING SFC DEWPTS
INTO THE 60S. LATEST CLOSEUP SEA SURFACE MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. OTHERWISE NO
PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN SRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT EVE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 090937
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
537 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST LATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GRT LKS ARND NEXT THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF DENSE FOG
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES THIS AM...THE RESULT OF A CALM
WIND AND RELATIVELY WARM RIVER/STREAM WATERS. LATEST 3KM HRRR SFC
RH SUGGESTS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 12Z. WAA DEVELOPING ON WEST SIDE
OF RETREATING RIDGE IS PRODUCING BKN MID LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS
OHIO AND SW PA AT 09Z. THE LATEST RAP OUTPUT...WHICH IS PICKING UP
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LYR OF MOISTURE NR 700MB...SUGGESTS THIS
BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP A BIT AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PA LATER THIS AM. HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING LOW LVL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN SOME LATE DAY INSTABILITY
AND THE POTENTIAL OF SCT LATE DAY CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SC MTNS.

8H TEMPS SURGING TO NR 15C SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GO SLIGHTLY ABV
SEASONAL NORMS UNDER PTSUNNY SKIES.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD APPROACHING UPPER LOW
OVR THE MIDWEST. VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG MDL GUIDANCE THRU LATE
MONDAY...ALL OF WHICH TRACK UPPER LOW EASTWARD TOWARD PA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY LL JET/PWATS WILL
SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA MONDAY AM. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASED POPS TO NR 100 PCT BY LATE IN
THE DAY BASED ON GEFS/SREF OUTPUT.

HAVE PLAYED DOWN THE CHC OF THUNDER MONDAY...AS OVERCAST SKIES AND
ONGOING RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD LIMIT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.
00Z GEFS MEAN CAPES AOB 500 J/KG. A BLEND OF OPER AND ENSEMBLE
QPF SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL MDL RUNS PRODUCE
LOCAL AMTS ARND 2 INCHES...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN PWATS
2-3SD ABV NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS SHOULD BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
AREA MON EVENING...CAUSING HEAVY SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST. HOWEVER...SCT ADDITIONAL SHRA AND POSS TSRA SHOULD BE IN
STORE FOR CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY...AS 5H TROF AXIS SWINGS THRU.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ARND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH NORMAL TIMING ISSUES REMAIN...BULK OF MDLS TRACK SFC LOW
SOUTH OF PA THURSDAY...SO HAVE RAMPED UP THE CHC OF RAIN/SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE MDL DATA TO SUPPORT DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDS ARRIVING FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS SE INTO THE REGION.

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT WIND AND MCLEAR SKIES UNDER SFC RIDGE IS RESULTING IN EARLY
AM FOG IN THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES...
MAINLY ACROSS NW PA WHERE PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING.
ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSS THROUGH 13Z.

WAA ON WEST SIDE OF RIDGE IS PRODUCING BKN MID LVL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS OHIO AND SW PA AT 06Z...AND SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN PA BEFORE DAWN. THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO DRAW INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...
RESULTING IN SOME LATE DAY INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL OF SCT
LATE DAY CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS...BUT HELD MENTION
TO VCSH IN TAFS FOR THAT AREA DUE TO LOW COVERAGE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS CENTRAL PA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR WITH SCATTERED PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS MAINLY IN THE SW.

SUN NIGHT-TUES...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS /ESP MON-MON NIGHT/. SCT PM
TSRA. LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.

WED-THU...SCT SHOWERS...BUT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 080829 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST SAT JUN 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS IT RELOCATES TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUN. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI.

.DISCUSSION...TUTT AXIS HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE MON PASSAGE AND AS
TUTT DEEPENS AND RETROGRESSES TOWARD HISPANIOLA LARGE SCALE ASCENT
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVR PR LATER TODAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EXPLOSIVE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR AND MODEST MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

NEXT IS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE ISLAND CHAIN LATER THIS
MORNING. WHILE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PR ON SUN...BULK OF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH PR BEING ON DRY SIDE.
I WOULD EXPECT A DECREASE IN AREAL CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS
SUN. MOIST TROPICAL AIR THEN ENVELOPS THE AREA MON AND TUE WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND NMRS CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY TUE DUE TO ABNORMALLY HIGH
TPW AIR AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT.

TUTT WILL THEN BEGIN TO FILL WED WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKING
IN FROM THE EAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TAKES OVER THU
AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OFF OF THE AFRICAN
COAST. MODELS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE IN TERMS OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALTHOUGH AM SOMEWHAT
SKEPTICAL OF IT THIS FAR OUT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR OVR
THE TROP ATLC CURRENTLY SEEN ON CIMSS SAL PRODUCT AND PER HIGH
VALUES OF AOD OVR THE ERN ATLC SEEN ON MODIS TERRA AND AQUA FROM
YESTERDAY. THEN ANOTHER SIG SAL EPISODE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FRI NIGHT - SAT WITH STRONG WARMING AT H85 AND VERY DRY LOW TO MID
LEVEL RH'S.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES TIL ABOUT 08/16Z WHEN
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN PR AND MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING
MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS TO/AROUND TJMZ. WINDS ARE EAST 10 TO
15 KT AND 20 KTS BTWN 0 AND 2 KFT.

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO 20 KT. TSTMS WILL BE MAIN HAZARD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 88 78 / 40 30 30 30
STT 86 78 88 78 / 40 40 40 50

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

02/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 080820
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST SAT JUN 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS IT RELOCATES TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUN. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI.

.DISCUSSION...TUTT AXIS HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE MON PASSAGE AND AS
TUTT DEEPENS AND RETROGRESSES TOWARD HISPANIOLA LARGE SCALE ASCENT
FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVR PR LATER TODAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EXPLOSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODEST
MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING.

NEXT IS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE ISLAND CHAIN LATER THIS
MORNING. WHILE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PR ON SUN...BULK OF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH PR BEING ON DRY SIDE.
I WOULD EXPECT A DECREASE IN CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS SUN.
MOIST TROPICAL AIR THEN ENVELOPS THE AREA MON AND THU WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND NMRS CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY TUE DUE TO ABNORMALLY HIGH
TPW AIR AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT.

TUTT WILL THEN BEGIN TO FILL WED WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKING
IN FROM THE EAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TAKES OVER THU
AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. MODELS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALTHOUGH
AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF IT THIS FAR OUT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR OVR THE TROP ATLC CURRENTLY SEEN ON CIMSS SAL PRODUCT AND
PER HIGH VALUES OF AOD OFF OF AFRICA ON MODIS TERRA AND AQUA FROM
YESTERDAY. THEN ANOTHER SIG SAL EPISODE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FRI NIGHT - SAT WITH STRONG WARMING AT H85 AND VERY DRY LOW TO MID
LEVEL RH'S.

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO 20 KT. TSTMS WILL BE MAIN HAZARD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 88 78 / 40 30 30 30
STT 86 78 88 78 / 40 40 40 50

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

02/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 071547
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1147 AM AST FRI JUN 7 2013

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS MORNING
DEPICTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO INDUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
TUTT LOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA BY THE WEEKEND. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGES AND SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING...DEPICTED A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 50 WEST. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD PASSING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS BY MONDAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37 WEST THIS
MORNING WILL REACH THE REGION BY TUESDAY INDUCING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS EXCEPT...AFT 07/17Z
BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AS ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN
INTERIOR PR AND SOME MAY SPREAD OVER TJMZ. MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT
07/16Z...MAINLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY EASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO
AROUND 2 KFT.

.MARINE...SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS
OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM AST FRI JUN 7 2013/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA WILL EVOLVE INTO A
TUTT BY SAT AS IT RETROGRESSES TOWARD HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 52W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN.

DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF UPPER
LEVEL TROF AXIS THAT EXTENDS NE OF THE LEEWARDS THROUGH THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS SEEN ON HI-RES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY FROM MODIS TERRA AVAILABLE FROM THE NRL MRY NEXSAT
WEBSITE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WET SOILS AND CLEAR SKIES IS
RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS ERN INTERIOR AS SEEN ON HI-RES
MODIS LOW CLOUD/FOG PRODUCT AND GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. AS
LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING SAL AM
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS THEN EVOLVES INTO A TUTT BY SAT AS IT
RELOCATES TO THE NORTH HISPANIOLA. AT THE SAME TIME...AREA OF
SOMEWHAT HIGHER TPW AIR EAST OF 60W AS SEEN ON BLENDED TPW
PRODUCT WILL INCH CLOSER TO OUR AREA SAT AND INTERACT FAVORABLY
WITH TUTT TO YIELD SCT-NMRS STRONG POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION SAT
AFTERNOON. GFS 200 MB DIVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW VERY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT OVR PR.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN OVER THE AREA SUN AHEAD OF WAVE
AXIS NOW LOCATED ALONG 52W. LOWERED POPS TO ISOLD NW SUN GIVEN
DEGREE OF SUBSIDENCE. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SUN WITH DEEP MOIST TROPICAL AIR ENVELOPING THE AREA
MON AND TUE. AS MOIST TROPICAL AIR INTERACTS WITH DEEP TUTT NORTH
OF HISPANIOLA EXPECT NMRS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
ABNORMALLY HIGH TPW AIR AND LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
EAST SIDE OF TUTT.

SIG IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WED-THU AS TUTT FILLS AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FCST FOR NEXT
FRI FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS LIKE A TRADE WIND SURGE AND ANOTHER SIG
EPISODE OF SAL.

AVIATION...-SHRA WERE OBSERVED ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LAST UNTIL 07/10Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS EXCEPT...AFT
07/17Z BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AS ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER WRN INTERIOR PR AND SOME MAY SPREAD OVER TJMZ. MTN
OBSCURATIONS AFT 07/16Z...MAINLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FROM
THE SURFACE TO AROUND 2 KFT.

MARINE...A SURGE IN WINDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT ACROSS OFFSHORE ATLC
WATERS AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 88 78 / 10 40 40 20
STT 87 78 87 78 / 10 40 40 20

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

72/71

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 070819 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
417 AM AST FRI JUN 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA WILL EVOLVE INTO A
TUTT BY SAT AS IT RETROGRESSES TOWARD HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 52W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN.

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF UPPER
LEVEL TROF AXIS THAT EXTENDS NE OF THE LEEWARDS THROUGH THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS SEEN ON HI-RES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY FROM MODIS TERRA AVAILABLE FROM THE NRL MRY NEXSAT
WEBSITE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WET SOILS AND CLEAR SKIES IS
RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS ERN INTERIOR AS SEEN ON HI-RES
MODIS LOW CLOUD/FOG PRODUCT AND GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. AS
LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING SAL AM
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION...-SHRA WERE OBSERVED ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LAST UNTIL 07/10Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS EXCEPT...AFT
07/17Z BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AS ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER WRN INTERIOR PR AND SOME MAY SPREAD OVER TJMZ. MTN
OBSCURATIONS AFT 07/16Z...MAINLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FROM
THE SURFACE TO AROUND 2 KFT.

.MARINE...A SURGE IN WINDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT ACROSS OFFSHORE ATLC
WATERS AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 88 78 / 10 40 40 20
STT 87 78 87 78 / 10 40 40 20

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

02/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 070811
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
411 AM AST FRI JUN 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA WILL EVOLVE INTO A
TUTT BY SAT AS IT RETROGRESSES TOWARD HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 52W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN.

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF UPPER
LEVEL TROF AXIS THAT EXTENDS NE OF THE LEEWARDS THROUGH THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS SEEN ON HI-RES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY FROM MODIS TERRA AVAILABLE FROM THE NRL MRY NEXSAT
WEBSITE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WET SOILS AND CLEAR SKIES IS
RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS ERN INTERIOR AS SEEN HI-RES MODIS
LOW CLOUD/FOG PRODUCT AND GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. AS LOCAL
AREA REMAINS IN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING SAL AM
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...A SURGE IN WINDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT ACROSS OFFSHORE ATLC
WATERS AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 88 78 / 10 40 40 20
STT 87 78 87 78 / 10 40 40 20

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

02/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 060830
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST THU JUN 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE ISLANDS TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEP TUTT.
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN.

.DISCUSSION...COMBINATION OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THROUGH SUN. AQUA MODIS AOD PRODUCT
FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT THE THICKEST DUST HAZE WAS
LOCATED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA WITH CLEARER AIR EAST OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN. WHILE SOME HAZE WILL STILL LINGER TODAY EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME LESS HAZY AND CLEARER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W IS STRUGGLING WITH LOW-MID LEVEL DRY AIR
PER LOW CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS SEEN EMANATING FROM
ASSOCIATED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES. MODELS SHOW BULK OF MOISTURE
WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUN WITH CURRENT AIR MASS NOT
MODIFYING COMPLETELY UNTIL MON. BY THEN...UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED
TO EVOLVE INTO A VERY DEEP TUTT LOW AND BE LOCATED NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT AND
MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS TO INTERACT FAVORABLY AND GREATLY ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AND TUE. TUTT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
MID NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FCST TO REACH THE AREA
THU ACCORDING TO THE 00Z ECMWF. OVERALL...IT APPEARS WILL SEE
ENHANCE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION NEXT WEEK DUE TO
FAVORABLE POSITION OF TUTT. THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE REDUCED DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VCSH POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AFTER AROUND 06/17Z. HAZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SAHARAN DUST MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA. WINDS BLO FL100 WILL BE FM E AT 10-15 KT.

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SOME HAZE BUT SKIES
EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEARER WITH TIME.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 88 77 / 20 0 10 20
STT 88 78 88 78 / 20 10 10 30

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

02/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 050815
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
415 AM AST WED JUN 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
INTO THE ERN CARIB WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP TUTT OVR THE WEEKEND
WHILE IT SLOWLY RETROGRADES. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT.

.DISCUSSION...MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY IS IMPRESSIVE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER FOR SO EARLY IN THE SUMMER BRINGING FIRST SIG DUST HAZE
EVENT OF THE YEAR. MODIS AOD PRODUCT FROM YESTERDAY AND NRL
AEROSOL LOOPER SHOW HAZY SKIES TODAY BUT BECOMING CLEARER AFTER
TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS OVR
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING OF SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND GRADUAL EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SAT.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 41.5W.
THIS WAVE IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SFC LOW PRES AND HAS
PLENTY OF CONVECTION AT THE H7 WAVE TROUGH AND ALSO ACCOMPANIED
BY SIG AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE. IF WE WERE IN AUG I WOULD BE
EXCITED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS WAVE BUT IT IS
JUNE AND THE WAVE IS FORECAT TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE
NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES INTO HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT THIS WAVE
WILL BRING STRONG CONVECTION TO OUR AREA SUN AS IT INTERACTS
FAVORABLY ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT FCST TO BE LOCATED OVR HISPANIOLA.
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL SITES. VCTS POSSIBLE
AFTER AROUND 05/17Z FOR TJMZ AND 05/19Z FOR TJBQ. WINDS BLO FL100
WILL REMAIN FM THE SE AT 15-20 KT. HAZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST OVER THE REGION.

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO 20 KT. HAZY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO 6-8SM.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 87 78 / 20 20 20 0
STT 87 78 88 78 / 20 20 20 10

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

02/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 030157 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
957 PM AST SUN JUN 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW NEAR 35N 67W WILL MAINTAIN A
TROF INTO HISPANIOLA AND PR THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUE. SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO IMPACT THE AREA MID WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...MODIS AOD PRODUCT...CIMSS SAL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE
IMAGERY AT SUNSET INDICATED LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SAL LAYER OVR THE
SRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PR MON WITH
DUST HAZE GREATLY INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER WRN PR.
HOWEVER...SQUALLS AND CONVECTIVE LINES CAN BE EXPECTED TO START
ENTERING THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND EASTERN PR TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW ALONG 57W. THIS SQUALLY WX IS
SUGGESTED ON SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT FROM LATEST WRF-NMM.
BEST MOISTURE AND H85 THETAE ADVECTION IS FORECAST FOR MON NIGHT.
MODELS CONITNUE TO SHOW MOISTURE AND VORTICITY FIELDS SPLITTING AS
WAVE ENCOUNTERS STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW. I CONTINUE TO
BE SKEPTICAL ABOUT PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR TUE. WHAT LOOKS CERTAIN IS
A DENSE LAYER OF CIRRUS KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TUE.
BEHIND WAVE...LARGE AREA OF SAHARAND DUST HAZE WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA WITH HOT HAZY CONDITIONS. AREA WILL BECOME UNDER STRENGTHENING
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OF BACKSIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS AND
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST.

.AVIATION...SOME DUST HAZE TOMORROW BUT SHOULD NOT RESTRICT
VISIBILITIES. TSTMS AND SQUALLS WILL START APPROACHING FROM THE
EAST TOMORROW AND IMPACT LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI AND JSJ FROM
MIDDAY ON.

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO 20 KT. SQUALLS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND WATERS SURROUNDING ERN PR AND THE USVI
WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KT AND REQUIRE
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 87 / 10 40 70 70
STT 78 87 78 88 / 10 50 60 60

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

64/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KMTR 021126
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
426 AM PDT SUN JUN 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:31 AM PDT SUNDAY...COOLING TREND IS UNDERWAY
WITH STRATUS RETURNING TO THE COAST AND NOW STARTING TO PUSH A FEW
MILES INLAND. STILL A ROBUST 8.5 MB NORTHERLY GRADIENT BUT THE
ONSHORE IS 3.1 MB FROM SFO-SAC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL
WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN THE COAST BETWEEN SAN FRANCISCO AND
130W. NAM MODEL VORTICITY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS DEPICT THESE
FIELDS AS WELL WHICH WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
MARINE LAYER DEPTH. THIS IS ALREADY STARTING TO SHOW UP ON THE
FORT ORD PROFILER AND SAN CARLOS SODAR WITH THE INVERSION LAYER
INCREASING TO AROUND 1500 FEET. TEMPERATURES WONT COOL TOO MUCH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE MOST DRAMATIC COOLING ABOUT
10-20 MILES INLAND. THEN TONIGHT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD FURTHER
DEEPEN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SPREADING WELL INLAND BY MONDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS WILL FEEL COOLING ON
MONDAY AS PLACES LIKE CONCORD AND LIVERMORE STRUGGLE TO REACH 80
AFTER A WEEKEND OF TEMPS IN THE 90S.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE A WEAK 500 MB CIRCULATION OFF
THE CENTRAL COAST AT LEAST THROUGH WEDS OR POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN OF
EXTENSIVE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY SUNNY AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN THE 60S COAST...70S INSIDE THE BAY AND
80S INLAND.

BIG WEATHER STORY WILL THEN ONCE AGAIN TURN TO WARMING TREND BY
FRIDAY. MODEL RUNS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN BUILDING A 590-593 DM
HIGH OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. 850 MB TEMPS TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO GET PRETTY OUT OF HAND
FROM 25-30 CELSIUS NEXT WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD RIGHT
OVER HEAD SO GRADIENTS BECOME NEUTRAL BUT WITH THE RIDGE SO STRONG
THE HEAT SHOULD BUILD PRETTY CLOSE TO THE COAST. STILL ALMOST A
WEEK OUT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY OUTLOOKS BUT AS CONFIDENCE GROWS
WILL NEED TO CONSIDER POSSIBLE HEAT HEADLINES.

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:24 AM PDT SUNDAY...COMPARE TO 24 HOURS
AGO...WIDESPREAD STRATUS BLANKETS THE COASTLINE. SODARS/PROFILERS PUT
THE INVERSION AROUND 1000-1500 FEET LATEST MODIS- VIIRS IMAGERY
ACTUALLY SHOWS A FINGER OF STRATUS SLIDING THROUGH THE GAP JUST
NORTH OF KSFO. FARTHER SOUTH...STRATUS HAS MADE IT INTO MONTEREY
MORE EASILY. THAT BEING SAID...TOUGH CALL FOR SF BAY REGARDING
STRATUS THIS MORNING. WILL ALLOW FOR POSS CIGS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS THEN CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. MRY BAY CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN POSSIBLE CLEARING. CIGS RETURN EVERYWHERE TONIGHT
WITH A BETTER DEFINED MARINE LAYER.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PREVAILING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL BE
VFR...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 16Z FOR CIGS UNDER
1K FEET. VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW. CIGS
RETURN TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...AS OF NOW IT APPEAR THAT CIGS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY AROUND SFO. A FEW CIGS MAY IMPACT NORTH END OF APPROACH.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND MONTEREY
BAY THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
A FEW HOURS OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS RETURN
EARLY TONIGHT.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON
SCA...MRY BAY FROM NOON

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 020050 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
850 PM AST SAT JUN 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW NEAR NEAR 33N 69W WILL SUPPORT A
TROF INTO HISPANIOLA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE.

.DISCUSSION...COMPARISON OF VIS IMAGERY FROM THREE DIFFERENT
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITES (GOES-14, GOES-12 SOUTH AMERICA AND
METEOSAT) CONFIRMED A LAYER OF DUST HAZE WAS APPROACHING THE
LESSER ANTILLES AT SUNSET. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY MODIS IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOWED HIGHER AEROSOL CONCENTRATIONS JUST EAST
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. BLENDED TPW ALSO SHOWS SUBSTANTIALLY DRYER
AIR NOW OVER THE USVI AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT
DUST HAZE TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE OVER OUR SKIES. ALSO EXPECT TSTM AREAL
COVERAGE TO BE GREATLY REDUCED FROM TODAY SO WILL ADJUST POPS
DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO PERSIST THROUGH MON AS
UPPER TROF AXIS PULLS EAST AND LOCAL AREA BECOMES UNDER SUBSIDENT
SIDE PRECEDING TROPICAL WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W THIS EVENING WILL ENTER THE ERN CARIBBEAN
SEA MON AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL START WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASINGLY UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST SPLITTING OF
MOISTURE FIELD WILL OCCUR WITH THIS WAVE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
GOING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND H85 THETAE
ADVECTION WITH THIS WAVE IS ACTUALLY MON NIGHT WITH DRYING
EXPECTED OVER THE USVI BY TUE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS WAVE...FIRST
SIGNIFICANT SAHARAN DUST EVENT OF THE SUMMER WILL FOLLOW ACCORDING
TO NRL AEROSOL LOOPER WITH SIG IMPACTS TO AIR QUALITY AND
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. REST OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS PRETTY DRY AND
STABLE UNDER MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SAHARAN AIR LAYER. TIME
SERIES PLOT OF 950...850...700 MB TEMPS AND H1000-850 THICKNESSES
ALL SHOW A SHARP RISE STARTING MON AND PEAKING ON WED WITH TEMPS
LIKELY TO BE WELL INTO THE 90S. OVERALL...HAZY...HOT BUT DRY AFTER
TUE UNDER SAHARAN AIR LAYER.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYER OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJSJ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS WITH LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS.

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO 20 KT. SQUALLY WX WITH NMRS
TSTMS APPEARS LIKELY MON NIGHT. SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS APPEAR
POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER SAHARAN AIR LAYER.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 78 86 / 10 10 20 20
STT 78 88 79 88 / 10 10 20 20

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

13/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 010126 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
926 PM AST FRI MAY 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N 70W WILL SUPPORT A TROF INTO
THE CARIB THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROF WILL THEN FILL AND MERGE
WITH POLAR TROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUE.

.DISCUSSION...BLENDED TPW PRODUCT AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT A
A DECREASE IN TSTM AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR COULD ENHANCE TSTM
INTENSITY. THEN AREA BECOMES UNDER SUBSIDENT SIDE OF APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 46W. WHILE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE
IN TPW VALUES WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME UNDER INCREASINGLY UPPER
CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SO RIGHT NOW NOT OVERLY
CONFIDENT ON PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS WAVE TUE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE WEST MID NEXT WEEK LEADING
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AS
SEEN ON MODIS ATLC AOD...MODIS AND VIIRS DUST PRODUCTS OVER THE
ERN ATLC OCEAN ON THE NRL MRY WEBSITE WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA
ACCORDING TO NRL AEROSOL LOOPER. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE FIRST SIG
SAHARAN DUST EVENT OF THE SUMMER WITH SIG IMPACTS IN AIR QUALITY
AND VISIBILITY POSSIBLE.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYER OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJSJ AND TISX. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10
TO 15 KTS.

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT. TSTMS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.

.CLIMATE...MAY 2013 WILL END AS THE THIRD WETTEST MAY ON RECORD AT
THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT WITH 14.54 INCHES OF RAIN. THE WETTEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS IN 1936 WHEN 16.88 INCHES OF RAIN WERE RECORDED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 87 / 10 10 10 10
STT 78 88 78 89 / 0 0 10 10

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

13/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 240240
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...

WITH THE LAKE BREEZE...TEMPERATURES COOLED WELL INLAND AND WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE WEST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
STAY UP TO PREVENT FROST IN THE MILWAUKEE TO KENOSHA METRO AREAS.
HOWEVER THIS IS NOT LIKE FALL WITH A WARM LAKE...SO THE LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS INLAND WILL GIVE MUCH PROTECTION. MODIS LAKE
MICHIGAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 41.

TEMPERATURES ALREADY AROUND 40 IN THE KETTLE MORAINE AREA.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY IFR/LIFR GROUND FOG POSSIBLE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW AREAS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRAVERSE TO WRN WI BY 12Z
FRIDAY. MOS GUIDANCE AND 2 METER TEMPS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL BE MID
TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. GOING FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD WITH NO FROST ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER
WINDS. 925 TEMPS PLAY OUT WITH 7C IN THE EAST AND AROUND 10C IN THE
WEST. GOING WITH MID 50S LAKESIDE AND MID 60S AT INLAND LOCALES.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LINGERING RIDGE WL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF QUICKLY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN FROM
UPSTREAM WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS...COOLER
TEMPERATURES WL DEVELOP OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID-UPPER 30S. MORE CLOUDINESS IN
WESTERN CWA SHOULD PRECLUDE COOLER TEMPS. WL ADD PATCHY FROST
MENTION TO INLAND EASTERN AREA FOR LATER FRI NIGHT.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE MORE RIDGING PERSISTING OVER
SRN WI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES
ON SRN MN/NRN IA FRI NGT AND PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST IA LATE
IN THE NIGHT. DESPITE LOW LEVELS REMAINING DRY...WESTERN CWA MAY
GET CLIPPED BY MCS THAT WL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SAT MRNG.
BAROCLINIC ZONE THEN LINGERS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEED FROM THE EAST AND NEARBY RIDGING SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO EASTERN AREAS REMAINING DRY FOR MOST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WEAK RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH EXPANDING RIDGE WL THREATEN
WESTERN AREAS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

DIFFERENCES PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BETWEEN THE GFS AND
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
PIECES OF ENERGY BEING EJECTED FROM DEEPENING UPSTREAM TROFING OVER
WRN CONUS. GFS ALSO HAD BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN WEAKENING DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CONUS BUT WITH 12Z RUN...HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWER ECMWF. HENCE WL BE LEANING TOWARD DRIER
AND ULTIMATELY WARMER SCENARIO /ECMWF/ FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
WITH THIS SOLUTION...MORE AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS MORE OF
WRN GTLAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND AGAIN WED INTO THU.

BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TUE INTO WED WHEN
PUSH OF WARM AIR COINCIDES WITH PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE. WARM
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FOR WED AND THU WITH LIMITED COLUMN
MOISTURE. CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS WARMING TO SUMMER LEVELS BY
THU. HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL NEED TO CARRY TOKEN SCHC POPS
IN OTHER PERIODS WITH REGARD TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AT THIS POINT.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE
NORTH...BECOMING SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY MID EVENING CWA
WIDE. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS TONIGHT EASING THE NORTH
WINDS..THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE EAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH LIGHTER WIND
REGIME AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MARINE...PERSISTENT AND GUSTY NNE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN HIGH
WAVES. GRADIENT EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY RELAX A BIT INTO THE EVENING
BUT THE WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO EASE. PONDERED AN EXTENSION TO THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT REASSESS TRENDS WITH
RESPECT TO WAVE CESSATION BASED ON WINDS FINALLY ABTE SOME. FOR
NOW...GOING END TIMES ARE PLAUSIBLE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
052-058>060-064-065-070.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 212155
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
155 PM AKDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR IS PROGGED TO
BREAK DOWN INTO A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY.
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN REBUILDING OVER THE
INTERIOR FRIDAY AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ALASKA
FROM THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY. THIS TREND
IS INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT NEAR THE PRIBILOFS WILL MOVE
TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE
GULF OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT MERGES WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. GFS/ECMWF SIMILAR ON THE FORECAST
POSITION FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING THE LOW CENTER
TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...A 998 MB LOW JUST WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS WILL
MOVE TO ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...FILLING TO AROUND 1002 MB. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM THE LOW WEST SOUTHWESTWARD TO A WEAK LOW EAST OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THE TWO LOW CENTERS ARE EXPECTED
TO COMBINE INTO A SINGLE 1008 MB CENTER OVER THE GULF OF
ANADYR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE WEST COAST TONIGHT...BECOMING
MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
THURSDAY NIGHT. OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC
SLOPE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW.

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS
OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LIKELY TO
EXCEED 70 DEGREES. LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES...BELOW 30
PERCENT IN MANY PARTS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR...LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. SOME SITES WILL HAVE
MIN RH BELOW 20 PERCENT. EASTERN INTERIOR WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...SO NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE YUKON RIVER AT FORT YUKON
AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT DOWNSTREAM TO TANANA
AS BREAKUP ON THE YUKON RIVER PROGRESSES. A NASA/GSFC RAPID
RESPONSE MODIS IMAGE TAKEN MAY 20 SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE FLOODED
AREA ON THE YUKON RIVER EXTENDING FROM UPSTREAM OF THE ICE JAM
ALMOST TO CIRCLE. AT ITS WIDEST POINT...ABOUT 12 TO 20 MILES
UPSTREAM FROM FORT YUKON...THE FLOODED AREA APPEARS TO BE AS
MUCH AS 7 OR 8 MILES WIDE.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ220.
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ221.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

RF MAY 13

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KHGX 201252
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
752 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING LIFTING/MIXING QUICKLY. EXPECT TO SEE VFR
CONDITIONS BY 14-15Z ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD GUST
TO 20-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SSE-SE. SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG
WAS REPORTED THIS MORNING WITH THE WIND AND LOOKING AT MODIS FROM
YESTERDAY AND VIS THIS MORNING THINK THAT SMOKE FROM YUCATAN FIRES
MAY HAMPER VISIBILITIES TODAY AND TOMORROW. WON'T ADD ANY AS TEMPO
CONDITIONS YET BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
45

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS AGAIN PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS LITTLE
HAS CHANGED SYNOPTICALLY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
NEAR THE TEXAS- OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF BRISK WINDS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
AGAIN BE LIMITED AS A STOUT CAP WILL BE PRESENT AROUND 850MB.
AMDAR SOUNDING FOR KHOU REVEALED 800MB TEMPERATURES OF 20C.

ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM
NEW MEXICO. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES SHORTWAVES WILL
RIPPLE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND BEGIN TO ERODE THE CAP
ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE CAP WILL PROBABLY WIN
OUT SOUTH OF IH-10. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS POSITIVE VORTICITY MOVES
OVERHEAD. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE NORTH OF IH-10 WITH A
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BREAK THE CAP AT KCLL WHILE HOLDING ON TO IT
AT KIAH AND OTHER SOUTHWARD SITES. AT KCLL CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND
2500 J/KG WITH LI'S OF -8. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HOLDS ONTO
THE CAP ACROSS THE AREA. HAIL AND WIND LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THIS EVENT IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA AND OFF
TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE HOT AND HUMID. 23

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AND WILL PUT UP A SCEC
FOR TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 12-18 KNOTS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE RANGE OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SUBTROPICAL JET
TRANSITS THE STATE. SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES BEYOND WEDNESDAY THOUGH
LIGHTER AND MAY EVEN BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT SATURDAY WITH
RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 73 90 71 88 / 10 10 30 40 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 90 75 90 73 88 / 10 10 20 30 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 73 80 74 81 / 10 10 10 20 20

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

DISCUSSION...23

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KHUN 161009
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
509 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE TN
VALLEY OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EITHER DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPR LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WAS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
INCLUDING TORNADOES JUST WEST OF THE DFW METRO YESTERDAY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TN VALLEY. SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES LOOK RATHER SMALL FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD BEYOND WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING FOR ANOTHER TROUGH AND PERHAPS A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. MORE DETAILS FOLLOW
BELOW.

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAIN BELT OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES
CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN/CONUS BORDER...WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL JET
EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GOM. IN
BETWEEN...A CLOSED UPR-LOW WAS MOVING SLOWLY EWRD ACROSS THE OK/TX
BORDER REGION...WITH THE CENTER VERY NEAR OK CITY. STANDARD WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A REGION OF DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW...WHICH WAS CORROBORATED BY 00Z SOUNDINGS
AND OTHER MULTI-SPECTRAL MODIS/VIIRS AND RGB IMAGERY. REGIONAL
RADARS AT 330 AM CDT SHOWED HEAVIER CONVECTION WAS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF AR AND TX...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS WERE LOCATED
IN THE MEMPHIS METRO AND ALONG A NARROW LINE STRETCHING FROM THE
MISS DELTA INTO SW ALABAMA. THESE SHOWERS...IN ASSOC/WITH AN AREA OF
SHEARED UPR VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWRD THROUGH THE
MORNING. WHILE SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE REACHING THE SFC...SOME OF
THE LIGHTER SHOWERS ALOFT LIKELY ARE NOT REACHING THE SFC DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A SUBSTANTIALLY DRY MID-LAYER. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAIN UPR LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHEARED W-E AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH WEAK UPR VORT
MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE PATTERN WITH THE SUITE OF
GUIDANCE IS TOO CHAOTIC TO DISCERN A COHERENT FEATURE...BUT SUFFICE
IT TO SAY THAT LIFT ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE WILL BE PRESENT BUT LIKELY
WEAK. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE LARGELY DIFFLUENT IN
NATURE. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE CLOUD TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MORE CLEARING AND INSOLATION MAY BE
REALIZED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO GREATER DESTABILIZATION AND PRESENT A HIGHER THREAT OF
SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
ATTM GIVEN THE OTHER COMPETING FACTORS.

ALTHOUGH THE PARENT UPR LOW IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...IT WILL KEEP A STEADY ADVANCE TO THE EAST. BY LATER
TONIGHT...THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPR LOW WILL PROBABLY PUSH INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY. CONTINUING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE MID-MISS VALLEY LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW. ALTHOUGH
STEERING FLOW WILL BE SW-W...CONVECTION MAY BE PARTIALLY COLD-POOL
DRIVEN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT INCREASING IN OUR AREA
TONIGHT. POPS WERE RAISED A LITTLE MAINLY IN THE NW TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SCENARIO...BUT WERE KEPT AT CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL A CLEARER
PICTURE EMERGES. CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOK RATHER SMALL FOR NOW
WITH VERY LOW SHEAR AND MARGINAL CAPE.

ON FRIDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES ALBEIT UNDER A DENSER CLOUD
CANOPY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. POPS WERE
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC
LIFT AVAILABLE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW WITH THIS FEATURE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS ALONG THE SE FLANK OF THE UPR LOW. WHILE
BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION IS MORE LIKELY TO OUR WEST OVER THE MID-
MISS VALLEY OR THE WESTERN TN VALLEY...STORMS MAY MAINTAIN
ORGANIZATION AS THEY MOVE EWRD INTO PORTIONS OF NW ALABAMA LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCTD STRONG STORMS WILL PROBABLY PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CONTINUED
STORM ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

KEPT POPS FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM UPR-WAVE MOVES SWRD INTO
THE REGION...PERHAPS MERGING WITH THE PRE-EXISTING UPR TROUGH.
INSTABILITY MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHEST ON THIS DAY...WITH CLOUD COVER
THE OBVIOUS CAVEAT. NEVERTHELESS...FORECAST CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
2000 J/KG SUGGEST STRONG UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS
GENERALLY WEAK...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD STILL OCCUR.

THE EFFECTS OF THE COMBINED UPR-LVL SYSTEMS COULD IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY IN THE EAST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVENTUAL
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WAS INTRODUCED IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

FOR MON-TUES...A RIDGE WILL BUILD QUICKLY IN THE EASTERN CONUS AS
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED. GENERALLY
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY RESULT FOR THE REGION.
CURRENTLY...HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S ARE FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON MON AND TUES. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW 90S ARE
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH TYPICAL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING
THAT A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY REGION BY
ABOUT WED. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA
AND A CHANCE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS.

KDW

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
FOR 06Z TAFS...EVEN AS MORE HIGH/MID LVL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THRU TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD. SCT/ISOL -RA MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS AL/TN
BTWN 14-18Z BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT FLT CATEGORIES. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR W PUSHES CLOSER LATE IN THE PERIOD...CIGS SHOULD START TO DROP
BUT CAT DROPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z TOMORROW.

CCC

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 84 65 82 67 / 20 30 50 40
SHOALS 85 62 79 68 / 20 30 50 40
VINEMONT 82 62 81 67 / 20 20 40 40
FAYETTEVILLE 82 59 81 65 / 20 30 50 40
ALBERTVILLE 82 63 81 66 / 20 20 40 40
FORT PAYNE 83 59 80 63 / 20 20 40 40

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 070819
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
419 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW W-E ORIENTED UPR
RDG STRETCHING ALONG THE US/CNDN BORDER TO THE N OF CLOSED UPR LOWS
OVER THE SE CONUS AND ANOTHER JUST OFF THE CA COAST. AT THE SFC...
HI PRES IS CENTERED OVER LK SUP...AND WINDS ARE NEAR CALM UNDER
SLACK PRES GRADIENT. WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB
RAOB...WHERE PWAT WAS ONLY 0.15 INCH OR 27 PCT OF NORMAL...QUIET WX
DOMINATES THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS OVER THE SCENTRAL...BUT
OTRW SKIES ARE CLR.

DRY HI PRES IS FCST TO DOMINATE THE UPR LKS TDAY/TNGT...SO QUIET
WX/MOCLR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE. MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE TEMPS/HOW LO
MIN RH WL FALL THIS AFTN. ANY SHALLOW GROUND FOG THAT FORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR W EARLY THIS MRNG WL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFT SUNRISE. WITH H85
TEMPS THIS AFTN IN THE 10-11C RANGE...ABOUT THE SAME OR 1C HIER THAN
YDAY...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON MON. DEEP
MIXING TO H75 ON FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S
AWAY FM LK MODERATION. ONE DIFFERENCE IS THE H925 FLOW IS FCST TO BE
A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE S-SE THAN YDAY AND UP TO 10 KTS WITH HI
CENTER SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E. AS A RESULT...LK MODERATION OFF LK
SUP SHOULD NOT PENETRATE AS FAR INLAND AS ON MON. ON THE OTHER
HAND...MODERATION OFF LK MI WL BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE. AWAY FM LK
COOLING/ MOISTENING...THE DEEP MIXING WL ALLOW SFC DEWPTS TO FALL TO
ARND 30 THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN MIN RH ARND 20 PCT. SINCE WINDS
SHOULD BE NO HIER THAN ABOUT 10 MPH...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES ARE
NECESSARY.

CONTINUED AIRMASS MODERATION...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER S WIND...AND THE
ARRIVAL OF MOISTER AIR ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...WHERE THE PWAT IS
FCST TO RISE TO NEAR 0.75 INCH BY 12Z WED...WL CONSPIRE TO KEEP MIN
TEMPS TNGT HIER THAN THIS MRNG. THE DIFFERENCE SHOULD BE MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER THE W CLOSER TO THE INCOMING MOISTER AIR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013

LIMITED CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FROM 24HRS AGO. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE THAT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY UNDER WILL BEGIN TO
LOOSEN IT/S GRIP ON THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE
PROVIDING ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR MUCH OF UPPER
MICHIGAN. MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...BUT LAKE
BREEZES WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION FROM THE DIURNAL CU
OVER THE WESTERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE
BASED OFF THE MOISTURE BEING FOCUSED ABOVE 6-7KFT. WITH THE HIGH
BASED CLOUDS AND THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...IT MAY BE TOUGH
TO GET PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...LOOKING AT
MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE VERY LOW LEVELS ARE TRYING TO OVER MOISTEN
THE SURFACE...WHICH INCREASES THE SFC BASED CAPE TOWARDS 500-750
J/KG. LOOKING AT MLCAPE...THAT DRY AIR CUTS BACK CAPE VALUES TO
50-250 J/KG AND WITH THE OTHER NEGATIVE VALUES...WILL CUT BACK
POPS TO SLIGHTS OVER THE FAR WEST. ALSO FOR WEDNESDAY...LOWERED
DEWPOINTS BASED OFF DRIER AIR HOLDING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER DAY OF RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND
EAST. FORTUNATELY...THE WINDS WILL AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT AND BE THE
STRONGEST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LAKE BREEZES.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FOCUS TURNS TO THE WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PUSHING EAST FROM
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MOISTURE
FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THE COLD FRONT...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE AND CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE ENERGY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WEST...WITH LOW END
LIKELY AND HIGH END CHANCE VALUES FOR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE /LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH/ UNLESS THE SHORTWAVE IS FARTHER TO THE NORTH...WHICH ALLOW
FOR GREATER INTERACTION BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE FRONT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY WEATHER...BUT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /850MB TEMPS AROUND 2-4C/ WOULD EXPECT HIGHS TO
BE IN THE 50S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS.

STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT...WOULD EXPECT A NICE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE SPEED OF THE FRONT WILL
LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THE BACK SIDE OF THIS PRECIPITATION
COULD TURN OVER TO SNOW AND WILL CONTINUE THAT MENTION. WITH THE
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WOULD
EXPECT DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...DUE
TO THE SFC-700MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-8.5 C/KM. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL START AS SNOW ALOFT AND P-TYPE AT THE SURFACE DEPENDS ON LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING
WARMER...BUT WITH THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND INVERTED V LOOK TO THE
SOUNDING...OPTED TO UTILIZE THE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHT FOR RAIN/SNOW
LINE. THIS PLACES A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTH AND RAIN OVER THE
SOUTH. WITH THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...IT MAY END UP BEING SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN TOWARDS RAW MODEL
DATA...SINCE MOS TREND TOWARDS NORMAL IS BIASING THE COLD TEMPS.
THIS PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA AND UPPER 40S OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF. THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...25-30KTS...IT WILL NOT
FEEL LIKE A MID MAY DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. COULD EVEN BE A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST. DECENT
SFC-775MB DELTA-T VALUES...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS
POINT WITH AN INVERTED V LOOK BELOW THE CLOUD BASE AND WILL ONLY
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES.

UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY AND PULL THE
MOISTURE WITH IT. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND A DRY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S OVER
THE EAST AND MID 40S OVER THE WEST DUE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SWEEP A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO ON MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD BRUSH THE CWA. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013

EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THIS TAF PERIOD WITH DRY HIGH
PRES DOMINATING. SOME FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP AT KIWD AND
KCMX EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT BRIEF IFR COULD
OCCUR AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WILL LEAD TO INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
PEAKING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
DIMINISH THE WINDS. BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 20-30KTS ON
SATURDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013

HYDROLOGY CONCERNS REMAIN FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY
ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH WITH THE DWINDLING SNOW PACK OVER
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MODIS IMAGERY
YESTERDAY STILL SHOWS SNOW REMAINING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS
OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE LATEST SNOW
DEPTH OBSERVATIONS /FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING AROUND 8AM/ STILL HAVE
AROUND 3IN AT IRONWOOD...AND 7IN AT ATLANTIC MINE. A FEW POCKETS OF
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. DID SEE RISES AT SOME
OF THE SITES OVER THE WEST /ESPECIALLY TRRM4 AND BESM4/ WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY. BUT THE TRAP ROCK RIVER LEVELED OFF
MUCH FASTER OVERNIGHT AND THAT MAY BE A SIGN OF THE LACK OF SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT LEFT IN THE BASIN. WITH THE SOLID RISE YESTERDAY OF
BESM4 AND DECENT SNOW COVER...WOULD THINK IT WOULD MAKE ANOTHER PUSH
TODAY. AT THIS TIME...AN EDUCATED GUESS WOULD PUT IT BETWEEN 8 AND 9
FEET THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE THE LAST MAJOR
PUSH.

THE ONGOING FLOODING ON THE MICHIGAMME RIVER AROUND WITCH LAKE WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL THE SNOW WATER
MAKES IT OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST MARQUETTE COUNTY.
THE STURGEON RIVER AT ALSTON AND CHASSELL CONTINUES TO HOVER BETWEEN
ADVISORY AND WARNING LEVELS AND WOULD EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE BASED
ON THE STEADY FLOW THROUGH THE STURGEON RIVER AT SIDNAW UPSTREAM.
OTHERWISE...THE REST RIVER LEVELS ARE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS WEEK.

FOR COMPLETE DETAILS...SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF
HYDROLOGY...SRF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 060756
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
356 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG STRETCHING
FM THE NE CONUS W INTO THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE N OF CUTOFF LO OVER
THE SE CONUS. VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS...
WHICH SHOW A PWAT ARND 0.25 INCH OR 50 PCT OF NORMAL...DOMINATES THE
CWA. SO SKIES ARE MOCLR EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLDS. SFC HI PRES IS
CENTERED NEAR WRN LK SUP...AND SOME LO CLDS/FOG ARE APRNT OVER WRN
LK SUP NEAR THE W COAST OF UPR MI CLOSER TO MOISTER AIRMASS SHOWN ON
THE 00Z INL RAOB. DESPITE THE LGT WINDS AND TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 30
CLOSER TO THIS MSTR...NO FOG HAS YET FORMED OVER WRN UPR MI AS OF
FCST ISSUANCE.

TODAY/TNGT...UPR RDG IS FCST TO REMAIN DOMINANT THRU THIS TIME WITH
SFC HI PRES REMAINING NEARLY STNRY OVER LK SUP. WITH DRY AIRMASS
ALSO LINGERING...THE ONLY MAJOR CONCERNS ARE TEMPS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG THIS MRNG/TNGT...AND POTENTIAL LOW RH THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE E HALF CLOSER TO CORE OF DRY AIRMASS. BEST CHC FOR FOG
EARLY THIS MRNG WL BE OVER THE INTERIOR W...CLOSER TO AREA OF FOG/
LO CLD STRETCHING FM THE W SHORE OF THE KEWEENAW DOWN TOWARD
IWD/ASX. ANY FOG THAT DOES DVLP SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH
THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 9-10C AGAIN TODAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND W NEAR LK SUP...WHERE A WEAKER
SYNOPTIC FLOW THAN YDAY WL LIMIT THE INLAND EXTENT OF LK MODERATION.
SO ALTHOUGH TEMPS NEAR THE SHORE IN THIS AREA MIGHT HAVE A HARD TIME
TOPPING 50...MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL AND W WL BE WARMER THAN YDAY.
MIXING TO H8-85 ON NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS UP TO 70-75
OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LOCAL LK BREEZE MODERATION. PREFER THE
DRIER LOOK TO THE NAM FCST SDNGS GIVEN BONE DRY GRB/APX RAOBS. DEEP
MIXING ON THESE FCST SDNGS SUG DEWPTS WL MIX OUT AS LO AS 30 TO 35
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING PEAK HEATING...LOWERING MIN RH AS LO AS
20-25 PCT. THE BEST CHC FOR THE LOWER DEWPTS WL BE OVER THE E WHERE
THE GROUND IS QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN OVER THE W/CENTRAL. FORTUNATELY
WINDS WL BE LGT...SO NO FIRE WX HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

FOR TNGT...WITH LGT WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS LINGERING...EXPECT A
HEALTHY DROP OF TEMP. PREFER TO TEND TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...BUT MODERATING AIRMASS SUGGESTS TEMPS TNGT
WL NOT BE AS CHILLY AS EARLY THIS MRNG. SINCE FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO
FORM THIS MRNG AND THE LLVLS TNGT WL LIKELY TO BE AS DRY...OPTED TO
REMOVE FOG FM THE FCST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

THE QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...AS DUAL CUTOFF LOWS /ONE OVER THE SE CONUS AND THE OTHER
NEAR CALIFORNIA/ KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM JET RUNNING WEST-EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR LOCKED UP TO THE
NORTH FOR THE TIME BEING.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL HINTS OF SOME HIGH-BASED
DIURNAL CU OVER THE WESTERN CWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. WITH THE DEEP MIXING...EXPECT
ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY OVER THE CWA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
EXCEPT WHERE LAKE BREEZES KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MAY KEEP THE WEST
HALF A LITTLE COOLER. DID TREND DEWPOINTS DOWN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST BASED OFF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH
THE GOOD MIXING THOSE DAYS...RH VALUES FELL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND
20S AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND WOULD EXPECT THE SAME FOR
TUESDAY. THAT IDEA MATCHES MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE MODELS AND
TRENDED THAT DIRECTION.

THE FIRST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
COME LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE
TO A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PRODUCING A LOW THAT
SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
THEN TRY TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST IMPACT IS
WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE MOISTURE AND SMALL CLOSED PIECE OF ENERGY
THAT TRIES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST AND INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THIS INTERACTION AND
PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS POP/QPF DURING THIS PERIOD AND HAVE SLIGHTS
OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...EXPECT DRIER AIR
TO DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DROPS OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND LEAD TO DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

A MUCH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND BRING MUCH COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE WAVE...QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS
RAIN...AS THE COLDEST AIR DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MOST OF THE
DEEP MOISTURE EXITS. WITH THE BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS FOR
THIS WAVE...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S
FOR SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERNS THE EAST COULD SEE
WARMER HIGHS AROUND DAYBREAK AND THEN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY
AND ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT COOL BUT
THEN WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA HAS LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
DESPITE DECENT ANTECEDENT MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE SNOWMELT AND
RECENT PRECIPITATION. WHILE FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...VISIBILITIES
WILL NOT BE RESTRICTED BELOW MVFR...EXCEPT AT IWD WHERE IFR
CONDITIONS MAY RESULT CLOSER TO FOG ALREADY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE LEAVING THE
THREE TAF SITES UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 0Z TUESDAY. LATEST NAM
ON BUFKIT SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REDEVELOPING AT
KCMX AFTER 0Z TUESDAY...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
WINDS LIKELY STAYING BELOW 25KTS. HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS SETUP OVER
THE AREA WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LEAD TO LIGHT
WINDS. THEN...A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT BUT ONLY 10-20KT
WINDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AND DIMINISH THE WINDS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

HYDROLOGY CONCERNS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COMING DAYS...UNTIL THE
REMAINING SNOW PACK MELTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF UPPER
MICHIGAN. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MODIS IMAGERY YESTERDAY STILL SHOWS
SNOW REMAINING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE HURON
MOUNTAINS AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. DID SEE RISES AT SOME OF THE
SITES OVER THE WEST /ESPECIALLY TRRM4/ WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
YESTERDAY AND WOULD EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE REMAINING
SNOW IS GONE. AT THIS TIME...WOULD THINK TRRM4 WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT FOR REACHING ADVISORY OR FLOOD STAGE FROM THIS ADDITIONAL
MELT.

OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FLOODING ON THE STURGEON RIVER AT ALSTON AND
CHASSELL...THE MICHIGAMME RIVER AROUND WITCH LAKE...AND THE PAINT
RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE REST RIVER LEVELS ARE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS WEEK.

FOR COMPLETE DETAILS...SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT/KC
MARINE...SRF
HYDROLOGY...SRF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 050804
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
404 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG STRETCHING
FM SE CANADA INTO THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE N OF CLOSED LO OVER THE SRN
MS RIVER VALLEY THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTER WX THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 00Z GRB RAOB AND ESPECIALLY THE APX RAOB SHOW A
VERY DRY AIRMASS UNDER THIS RDG...WITH THE 00Z H85 DEWPT DEPRESSION
AS HI AS 24C/PWAT JUST 0.24 INCH OR 49 PCT OF NORMAL AT APX. BUT
THERE IS STILL A RIBBON OF DEEPER MSTR SOME -SHRA EXTENDING NNWWD
FM THE CLOSED LO TO THE S INTO MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO. THE 00Z INL
RAOB SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE AND 00Z PWAT OF 0.83
INCH...188 PCT OF NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS OVER THE
E...THAT AREA IS DOMINATED BY THE DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE APX RAOB.
WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO 10C...MAX TEMPS YDAY REACHED THE 70S OVER THE
SCENTRAL AND ERN CWA WHERE THE DRY AIR ALLOWED FOR QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE AND LAKE COOLING WAS ABSENT IN THE NLY FLOW S OF HI PRES
CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR ALF HAS PUSHED INTO
THE WRN CWA PER THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SDNGS...ENUF LLVL MSTR
LINGERS THERE UNDER SHARP INVRN AT H9 TO SUPPORT LO CLDS/FOG OVER
THE WRN CWA FM THE KEWEENAW THRU GOGEBIC COUNTY. SINCE THE 00Z YPL
RAOB SHOWS SOME MSTR BTWN H9-825 EVEN CLOSE TO THE ONTARIO HI
CENTER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD EXTENDING WELL N OF LK SUP
TO THE HI PRES RDG AXIS.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE LO CLD TRENDS/IMPACT ON
TEMPS. POTENTIAL FOR LOW RH OVER THE E/IMPACT ON FIRE WX CONCERNS
THIS AFTN IS THE FOCUS THERE.

TODAY...UPR RDG AXIS/MID LVL DRY AIR WL REMAIN DOMINANT. ALTHOUGH
SFC HI PRES OVER NW ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY S TOWARD LK
SUP...THE NNW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS HI...ALBEIT LGT...WL LIKELY
ACT TO HOLD LO CLDS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE NW HALF OF THE CWA
DESPITE THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING THAT WOULD NORMALLY MIX OUT
THIS LLVL MSTR. IN FACT...COOL ADVECTION OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK
SUP WL TEND TO OFFSET THE DIURNAL HEATING AND MAINTAIN A LLVL
INVRN/POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT LO CLDS IN THIS AREA AS HI TEMPS
HOLD IN THE 40S NEAR THE SHORE. OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...A LGT S
FLOW WL PREVAIL ARND SFC HI PRES OVER SE ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE MODERATION NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY/ LK MI WITH A LK
BREEZE...H85 TEMPS NEAR 10C/MIXING TO H8-85 ON NAM/ GFS FCST SDNGS
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SUPPORT HI TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S
AWAY FM THE LK COOLING. WITH SFC DEWPTS MIXING OUT TOWARD 35 OVER
THE INTERIOR...MIN RH WL LIKELY FALL AS LO AS ABOUT 25 PCT.
FORTUNATELY...THE WINDS WL BE LGT...SO NO FIRE WX HEADLINES ARE
NECESSARY.

TONIGHT...WITH HI PRES FCST TO SHIFT OVHD AND LGT WINDS...EXPECT
TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S...FALLING MOST SHARPLY OVER THE E AND
SCENTRAL...WHERE MUCH DRIER AIR /PWAT NEAR 0.5 INCH/ WL LINGER.
SINCE MORE LLVL MSTR WL BE LINGERNING OVER THE W/NCENTRAL...
RETAINED A MENTION OF FOG IN THIS AREA OVERNGT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013

WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THE
NORTHERN JET STREAM WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN CANADA...A
QUIET START TO THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH BASED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST DUE TO A POCKET OF 800-750MB MOISTURE. A FEW MODELS
HINT AT SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH THE HIGH BASES AND
LIMITED MOISTURE KEEPING MLCAPE VALUES BELOW 150 J/KG...THINK IT
WILL JUST BE CU. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE MIXING...TO
800-775MB...AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. LAKE BREEZES ON BOTH DAYS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES. DID TRY TO MIX OUT DEWPOINTS A LITTLE MORE THAN
THE MODELS HAVE INDICATED BASED OFF WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY.
FORTUNATELY...WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE HIGH...IT WILL LIMIT FIRE
WX CONCERNS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST EVEN THOUGH FFMC VALUES
ARE ON THE INCREASE AND ARE OR BECOMING HIGH.

PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW AND INTERIOR WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW LEVEL COOLING BY LINGERING
SNOW COVER. FARTHER EAST...DRIER AIR IN PLACE WILL LIMIT THE FOG
POTENTIAL. OVER THE GREAT LAKES...MODELS ARE HINTING AT FOG
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS ON MONDAY. BUT DEWPOINTS AREN/T
EXTREMELY HIGH AND WITH DRY AIR ALOFT IT WON/T GET MUCH HELP FROM
THE LAND. WITH THAT BEING SAID...IF IT DOES DEVELOP...THE LIGHT
WINDS WOULD LEAD TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND IT LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG OVER THE FAR WEST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD AT THIS POINT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE
SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND PRODUCES A SURFACE LOW THAT
MOVES INTO NORTHWEST QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW WILL TRY TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS...IT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS.
BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. THE 12Z ECMWF/GEM KEEP THE MOISTURE FARTHER
TO THE WEST...WHILE THE 18Z GFS PULLS IT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LATEST 00Z GFS/GEM RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF IDEA. BASED
ON THE EXISTING DRY AIR MASS AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...WOULD
TEND TO SIDE WITH THE DRIER IDEA AND WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHTS OR LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MAY AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND BRING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. BUT AGAIN...MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE THE CONCERN FOR THAT PERIOD UNLESS THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MOVES FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WED INTO SATURDAY LOOK TO BE COOLER THAN THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT STILL NORMAL OR VERY SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013

EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK
TODAY WITH LIFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE
AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS IN FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO...AND
RESIDES OVER THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT AT
ALL THE TAF SITES BY THE AFTN. LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL LEAD TO LAKE
BREEZES AT ALL SITES. LIGHT WINDS AND CONTINUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ALLOWS POTENTIAL FOR LGT FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013

A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
WINDS LIKELY STAYING BELOW 25KTS. HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS SETUP OVER
THE AREA WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND
LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS. THEN...A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
A WIND SHIFT BUT ONLY 10-20KT WINDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
DIMINISH THE WINDS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013

HYDROLOGY CONCERNS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COMING DAYS...UNTIL THE
REMAINING SNOW PACK MELTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF UPPER
MICHIGAN. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MODIS IMAGERY TODAY STILL SHOWS SNOW
REMAINING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. FARTHER WEST...THE 10 PLUS INCHES OF WET
SNOW WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF RISING RIVER LEVELS IN
PLACE. DID SEE RISES AT SOME OF THE SITES OVER THE WEST /RKLM4 AND
ESPECIALLY TRRM4/ WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY AND WOULD
EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE STURGEON RIVER AT ALSTON AND CHASSELL...THE MICHIGAMME RIVER
AROUND WITCH LAKE...AND THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS WILL
REMAIN CONCERNS INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IN THE CASE OF
THE MICHIGAMME RIVER PERHAPS WELL INTO THE COMING WEEK. BUT
OTHERWISE RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN DESPITE SOME RECENT
HEAVY PRECIP THAT IMPACTED MAINLY THE W HALF OF UPR MI.

FOR COMPLETE DETAILS...SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...SRF
HYDROLOGY...SRF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 280216
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
916 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

.UPDATE...WILL BEEF UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF THE MISSOURI UPPER LOW
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. AFTERNOON CU FIELD HAS DISSIPATED
FOR THE MOST PART OVER THE WESTERN CWA. HENCE NORTHWEST AREA HAS
BEST CHANCE FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. MAY ADD
SOME PATCHY FOG IN WI RIVER VALLEY AND LOW AREAS OF NORTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL BUMP FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST
A COUPLE DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MID CLOUDS NORTH OF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
MO WL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WI
OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG
LATER TONIGHT WILL BE AT KMSN WHICH WILL BE ON EDGE OF THICKER
CLOUDS. POSSIBLE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT KMKE AND KENW
DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO THIN ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

.MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY FROM 1930Z SHOW LAKE MICHIGAN WATER
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHERN LAKE MI
BUOY 45007 WENT BACK ONLINE FOR THE SEASON YESTERDAY EVENING. 45007
CURRENTLY REPORTING A WATER TEMP OF 40. EXPECT DEWPTS TO REMAIN
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW WATER TEMPS REDUCING CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ALSO...CLOUDS WILL BE CONTINUING TO INCREASE ACROSS
MOST OF THE NEARSHORE AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HENCE WL BE
REMOVING FOG THREAT FOR TONIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013/

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

BROKEN TO OVERCAST DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER UNTIL SUNSET
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG IT WILL
TAKE FOR DISSIPATION GIVEN BROKEN TO OVERCAST NATURE. THESE MAY
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
SHIFT NORTHEAST AND CLIP THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MAY LIMIT ANY
LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA...DESPITE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY SEE LIGHT FOG DEVELOP...BUT LEFT
OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S SEEM REASONABLE.

LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY NEAR THE
LAKE...AND KEEP TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE 50S. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 13 TO 15 DEGREE CELSIUS
RANGE SHOULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S WELL INLAND...MAYBE A
BIT HIGHER. ALL IN ALL...ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ARRIVING IN THE
NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SHOULD THEN BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL CAPE
VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH LIKELY
OVERDONE DUE TO TOO HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES. WILL ALSO PROBABLY
STRUGGLE FOR GOOD DAYTIME HEATING WITH ALL THE CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TOO MILD IF PRECIP DOES LINGER FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY...THOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
IF CURRENT MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...THE BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY MORNING...WITH VERY MILD AIR PUMPING UP INTO THE
AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST WINDS. WENT WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ONE POSSIBLE ISSUE COULD SLOWER EXITING PRECIP
WITH THE MONDAY SHORTWAVE...OR AN EARLIER COLD FRONT ARRIVAL
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ALSO...IF WINDS END UP BEING MORE
SOUTHERLY...WOULD LIKE SEE MORE OF A LAKE INFLUENCE THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. KEPT IT MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY...AS MOST MODELS KEEP
THE COLD FRONT FAR ENOUGH WEST.

THE GFS AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO BE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. SEEMED LIKE ENOUGH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS STILL HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH FOR MILD TEMPS IN AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO EXPANDED AREA OF 70S A BIT
MORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

BIG UPPER LOW WILL SETUP SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY...DEEPENING
AND REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG MODELS WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN
TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH PRECIP. OVERALL THOUGH...LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA
UNTIL SUNSET...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THESE MAY
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT MADISON. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER AT THE EASTERN SITES INTO EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT MADISON WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS WELL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

VFR CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST AND CLIP THE
EASTERN TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION. MADISON MAY SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP
BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z SUNDAY...BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AT MADISON. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT
THE EASTERN TAF SITES SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT MADISON.

MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS AROUND 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE SURFACE
WATER TEMPERATURES OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND PUSHES A
WARM AIRMASS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH WOULD CREATE HIGH WAVES INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 022020
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 PM CDT TUE APR 2 2013

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS A 500MB
CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE SOUTHERN WI WITH A CLEAR
NIGHT...MODERATE INVERSION...LIGHT WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES. WITH
LOW DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
925MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -6C TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20. THESE VALUES ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND
MANY OTHER MODELS...SO USED A BLEND OF RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS AND
BIAS-CORRECTED REGIONAL CANADIAN FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE TOO DRY ANY MORE THAN A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP.

A 16Z MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IMAGE SHOWED NEARSHORE LAKE
TEMPS RANGING FROM 37F NEAR SHEBOYGAN TO 40F NEAR KENOSHA. LAND
TEMPS WILL WARM UP PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH LAKESHORE
AREAS INTO THE UPPER 30S/40. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...LIGHT WINDS
AND COOL LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING. EXPECT THE LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND TO KENOSHA...WAUKESHA
AND SHEBOYGAN BY THE MID AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN.

ONCE THE LAKE BREEZE HITS...DAYTIME HEATING WILL END AND TEMPS WILL
BE STUCK IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. INLAND TEMPS WILL HAVE MORE
TIME TO WARM INTO THE MID 40S.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WE SHOULD HEAD INTO WED EVENING WITH LOW DEWPOINTS FROM THE DRY
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS LIKELY TO BE REACHED BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND...THEN TEMPS SHOULD
SLOWLY RISE TOWARD MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO THE HIGH SLIDING OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND WE GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT.

.THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

STILL LOOKING AT LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
WISCONSIN...IT SHOULD REACH THE WI/IL BORDER BY 7PM THURSDAY. BY
THE TIME THE FRONT GETS DOWN HERE...THE PARENT LOW WILL BE WELL
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THEREFORE IT WILL BE LOSING IT/S DEFINITION
AND MOISTURE...GETTING PINCHED BY RIDGING. ONLY POPS WILL BE IN
THE FAR NORTH DURING THE MORNING...SLIGHT CHC.

.FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER
TO THE AREA COMPARED TO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE
THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL REFRIGERATE.

.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LEADING WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH THE INITIAL PRECIP INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE NORTHERN
SOLUTION WITH THE LOW TRACK...WHILE THE GEM AND THE GFS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...LIKELY BRINGING THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS OF WISCONSIN. IT/S NOT A PARTICULARLY STRONG
SYSTEM...SO NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL PRECIP AMOUNTS.
THE LOW WILL BE EXITING SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

THE TEMP PROFILE IS COLD ENOUGH TO BRING A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT TO AREAS NORTH OF A MILWAUKEE TO
MADISON LINE...BUT WARMING TEMPS SHOULD TURN IT TO ALL RAIN ON
SATURDAY.

.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

IT APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF
WISCONSIN. KEPT LOW POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
IN CASE THE SYSTEM DECIDES TO COME BACK NORTH. GIVEN THE SOUTHERN
TRACK OF THE LOW...THAT PUTS US IN A MORE NORTHERLY/EASTERLY
FLOW...THUS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS...AGAIN DUE TO
LAKE MICHIGAN.

.TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

THERE APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF THAT
THE NEXT LOW WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY OR OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.
THERE ARE A FEW MORE LOWS THAT MOVE THROUGH INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...SO THE PATTERN DOES GET PRETTY ACTIVE...AT LEAST FOR
RAIN.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE MORNING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND PUSH INLAND TO KENOSHA...
WAUKESHA AND SHEBOYGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WINDS AND
WAVES WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN BRINGING NORTH WINDS TO THE MKX
NEARSHORE WATERS THU EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 021221
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
421 AM AKDT TUE APR 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER WESTERN ALASKA
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER EASTERN
ALASKA FROM CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CLOSE OVER
CENTRAL ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE TOWARDS NORTON SOUND
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARDS NORTON
SOUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED WEST. A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN AND INTERIOR ALASKA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AND HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THIS WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW WEST OF ST MATHEWS ISLAND WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CHUCKCHI SEA THROUGH BEAUFORT SEA.

GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE GOING FOR NEARLY 10F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FAIRBANKS AREA AND ECMWF MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE NEARLY 10F DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...BOTH MODELS ARE PREDICTING 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C
FOR THE GREATER FAIRBANKS AREA AND MUCH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES
OF -30C FOR AREAS OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE BY
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PAST COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR FROM CANADA HAVE MODERATED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND NOT BEEN AS COLD AS PREDICTED. FOR NOW WE ARE
LEANING TOWARDS A COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN STARTING
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE ECMWF IS
SUGGESTING.

WESTERN ALASKA...AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE WESTERN COAST AND IN
PARTICULAR THE YUKON DELTA REGION. BOTH THE MODIS AND GOES WEST
FOG AND LOW CLOUD PRODUCT INDICATING HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF LIFR
CONDITIONS FROM ST MICHAELS SOUTH TO EMMONAK. THE SURFACE LOW WEST
OF ST MATHEWS ISLAND HAS INCREASED THE WINDS WITH THE TIGHTENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE BERING STRAIT. THE
WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN.

NORTH SLOPE...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ARCTIC BEGINS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST THROUGH
THE WEEK. IN PARTICULAR...THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FROM ICY CAPE SOUTH THROUGH POINT HOPE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. PATCHY FOG AND POOR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE ARCTIC COAST.

CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA...AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...PARTICULARLY POCKETS WITHIN THE YUKON
FLATS AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
INTO A CLOSED LOW LATER TODAY AND MOVES WEST...AREAS OF FLURRIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO HAVE FLURRIES IN THE MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUBLIC ZONE 224 AND 223 MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF TOK...WHICH WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN PASSES AND ON
SUMMITS...PERHAPS LOWER THRESHOLD OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
FEW LOCATIONS WITH 40 TO 45 MPH.

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

.HYDROLOGY...
MEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
LIMITING SNOW PACK RIPENING BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR AND SPREADING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

MAK APR 13

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 282005
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
305 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS
PROGD TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE GFS/NAM PROG A VERY
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE GFS PROGS PWAT VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1 INCH
AREAWIDE LATE FRIDAY IN PHASE WITH THE FOREGOING DISTURBANCE...
CONFIDENCE IN PCPN REMAINS LOW WHEN CONSIDERING NIL GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN PCPN AMOUNTS OVER THE CWA/MSA. FROM THE ISENTROPIC
PERSPECTIVE...THE GFS PROGS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DRG THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER THE GFS PROGS LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT
295/300K FOR THIS AFTN YET NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN CURRENTLY FALLING.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FOREGOING CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICIT MAGNITUDES PROGD. THUS EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE YET
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT PCPN. CLOUDS WL LIMIT THE GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. THUS...DOWNWARD VERTICAL MIXING OF MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT DRG
THE AFTN LIMITED AND THUS WL MAINTAIN MAX WIND OVER LAND NEAR
BREEZY RATHER THAN WINDY.

.MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN PSBL OVER THE SRN BAYS LATE THIS
AFTN OWING TO LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING DRG THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WL
MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR THE SRN BAYS UNTIL 23Z. NAM PROG 925MB
20-25KT ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT/FRIDAY ALONG WITH NEAR DRY ADIABATIC
0-1KM LAPSE RATES. YET...FEEL THAT SST VALUES (MODIS SST
COMPOSITE) WL MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER LAPSE RATES AND THUS
LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING. THUS WL KEEP WIND BELOW SCEC
TONIGHT/FRIDAY. SMALLER WIND MAGNITUDES PROGD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DIMINISHING EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY
PESSIMISTIC FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
TEXAS ON SATURDAY NOW LOOKS TO HAVE A STRONGER CAP TO OVERCOME THAN
IN PREVIOUS RUNS. CLOUDY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EASTER MONDAY.

LONGWAVE PATTERN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A LARGE POLAR LOW DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
TRAILS FROM THAT VORTEX IN A WIDE SWEEPING ARC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING SOUTH TEXAS WHERE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
APPEARS UNLIKELY...BUT OVERRUNNING STRATIFORM RAIN COULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AS GULF AIR IS LIFTED UP OVER THE SHALLOW
SURFACE BOUNDARY. GFS APPEARS OVERDONE IN BOTH EXTENT OF COOL AIR
AND STRENGTH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT LOW CHANCE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW EARLY APRIL NORMALS APPEAR WARRANTED. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MARINE HEADLINES POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS STILL HINTING AT COASTAL LOW GENERATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE EASTERN VORTEX TOWARD
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
EFFECTS OF THIS WILL MAINLY BE FELT EAST OF THE COASTAL BEND...BUT
THE PATTERN CERTAINLY WARRANTS SCRUTINY IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 63 77 65 80 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 59 75 62 78 63 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 63 83 64 86 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 62 79 63 82 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 64 72 66 74 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 59 81 63 84 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 63 78 64 80 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 65 72 66 74 68 / 10 10 10 10 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT ARANSAS.

WC/87...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 271952
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
252 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRG THE PERIOD (GFS
DETERMINISTIC) AND IS CONSISTENT WITH ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
CWA/MSA. THE GFS PROGS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES YET MUCH
OF THIS INCREASE LIKELY FROM UPPER LEVEL MSTR (PER SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MIXING RATIO AT THE GFS 320K/325K ISENTROPIC LEVELS.)
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO CONTINUE YET CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT PCPN (PER GFS 300K LEVEL
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT.) THUS WL MAINTAIN AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVER THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED (WITH CLOUD COVER AS A LIMITING
FACTOR.)

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH THE NAM PROGS 20-25K WIND ONSHORE FLOW AT 925MB
ALONG WITH NEAR DRY ADIABATIC 0-1KM LAPSE RATES...CONFIDENT THAT
COOL SST VALUES IN THE 60S/NEAR 70 (MODIS SST COMPOSITE) OVER THE
WATERS WL LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING. THUS WL FCST WIND NO GREATER THAN
THE SCEC CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH
WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTH TEXAS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT
DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...BUT MODERATE CAP REMAINS IN PLACE
AND WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT PRECIPITATION APPEARS UNLIKELY. SOME
UPPER SUPPORT APPEARS BY SATURDAY AS JET STREAK SETS UP AND IMPLIES
SOME MIDLVL CAP EROSION. WILL LEAVE IN LOW CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTEMPLATING A VERY LOW QPF EVENT.

BEYOND SUNDAY MODELS ARE IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT. GENERAL IDEA
IS FOR A LARGE ARCTIC UPPER LOW TO SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES IN SPLIT FLOW WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THROUGH THIS BROAD TROF AS THE LOW CENTER DRIFTS TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN A CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS...GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE AND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF...REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW
WILL PAINT LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOSER TO THE
EC SOLN...AND AWAIT A LESS DISSONANT SET OF MODEL RUNS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AFTER WHICH TRENDS BECOME LESS CLEAR.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 59 78 64 82 66 / 10 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 53 74 58 78 63 / 10 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 60 79 63 84 67 / 10 10 10 10 20
ALICE 58 79 62 82 65 / 10 10 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 61 71 65 77 67 / 10 10 10 10 20
COTULLA 56 78 60 81 64 / 10 10 10 10 20
KINGSVILLE 57 78 63 82 65 / 10 10 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 62 72 66 79 68 / 10 10 10 10 20

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

WC/87...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KMTR 241620
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
920 AM PDT SUN MAR 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVE EAST TOWARD THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FELL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED LAST NIGHT. SOME OF THE COOLEST
SPOTS...IN THE NORTH BAY AND SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES...FELL INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO WARM A FEW DEGREES
INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS IN THE 60S
ALONG THE COAST...TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S INLAND. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY...WHERE 850 MB ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 12 DEGREES C...LEADING TO SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES!

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN MIDWEEK AND THE MORE PROMISING STORM SYSTEM
NEXT WEEKEND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...AS WAS
MENTIONED IN LAST EVENINGS DISCUSSION WINDS HAVE DECREASED...AND
WITH LESS MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW PTS ARE HIGHER THIS
MORNING. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD SKIES ARE
FOR THE MOST PART MOSTLY CLEAR. THERE IS A LITTLE PATCHY
FOG...WITH HALF MOON BAY BEING THE USUAL CULPRIT ALONG WITH NAPA.
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE VERY SHALLOW...WITH THE 10Z MODIS IMAGERY INDC
THE TOP OF THE STRATUS BETWEEN 500-600 FEET.

OFF TO THE BIGGER PICTURE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LOW NEAR 37/145...WITH THE GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS
INDC THAT THE RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 130W. TODAY LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH MILD/WARM TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS
WILL TURN THE FLOW ONSHORE...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO THE COAST SO ALL RAIN WILL STAY
TO THE NORTH OF THE DISTRICT.

HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE DISTRICT
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF WEAK
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL
WILL BE LIGHT.

THE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO BE WETTER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONGER UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE
UPPER LOW...WITH THE GFS BRINGING IT TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
SATURDAY AFTN AND THE ECMWF ON SUNDAY MORNING. CUT OFF ,LOWS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS IT APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...COULD BE WET. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS POPS WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP. ANY RAIN
WE GET WILL BE VERY WELCOME.

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY VFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING/DAY. THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT IS 4 MB AND
SLOWLY WEAKENING. ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE WEAK BUT WILL PICK UP A
LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVE AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE PER THE
LATEST NAM MODEL...WITH SFO-SAC PREDICTED TO BE 3 MB EACH DAY.
AREA DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING AND ADDITIONAL
INCREASES ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE TONIGHT AS A VERY WEAK AND DRY
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND
CENTRAL COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS COOLING TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
ASSIST WITH COASTAL STRATUS/FOG REDEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK-MODERATE
ONSHORE BREEZES BRINGING IN SOME STRATUS/FOG INLAND LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS 23Z-04Z AS
LOCAL ONSHORE GRADIENTS PICK UP A LITTLE. MVFR STRATUS CIG POSSIBLE
BY 16Z MONDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR. AREAS MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY MORNING.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. IFR POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
03Z-07Z TONIGHT WITH IFR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.

PUBLIC FORECAST: RILEY/STROBIN
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KMTR 241154
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
454 AM PDT SUN MAR 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...AS WAS MENTIONED IN LAST
EVENINGS DISCUSSION WINDS HAVE DECREASED...AND WITH LESS MIXING IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW PTS ARE HIGHER THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD SKIES ARE FOR THE MOST PART
MOSTLY CLEAR. THERE IS A LITTLE PATCHY FOG...WITH HALF MOON BAY
BEING THE USUAL CULPRIT ALONG WITH NAPA. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE VERY
SHALLOW...WITH THE 10Z MODIS IMAGERY INDC THE TOP OF THE STRATUS
BETWEEN 500-600 FEET.

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SATURDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 8 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 8 AM

PUBLIC FORECAST: STROBIN
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 210934
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
434 AM CDT THU MAR 21 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS WHICH
DEPICTS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN CONUS/ROCKIES DRG
THE PERIOD AND APPROACHING THE PLAINS/TX AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
CWA/MSA. ANTICIPATE BREEZY/WINDY OVER AT LEAST THE COASTAL
BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGIONS TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROGD TO ENTER AT LEAST CNTRL TX FRIDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
DOES NOT DEPICT PCPN ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CWA. THE NAM
DETERMINISTIC DOES GENERATE PCPN JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. HWR...
DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT THE FRONT WL MOVE AS FAR SOUTH
AS DEPICTED WHEN CONSIDERING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THUS WL NOT
INTRODUCE PCPN FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
DRG THE PERIOD (PER CONDITIONS AT 300K LEVEL OF THE GFS) WL
CONTRIBUTE TO CLOUD COVER DRG THE PERIOD...YET GFS SOUNDING
PROFILE NOT CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THUS EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD COVER YET NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN DRG THE PERIOD. MUCH WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

.MARINE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL BE CONDUCIVE TO INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW ALOFT DRG THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE PREDOMINATE SCEC CONDITIONS
TODAY OWING TO VERTICAL MIXING OF INCREASING MOMENTUM ALOFT.
(NAM/LOCAL ARW SUGGEST BARELY SCA THIS AFTN YET FEEL THAT MID/UPPER
60S SST VALUES PER MODIS SST COMPOSITE WL LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING.)
EXPECT WIND NEAR THE SCEC/SCA BOUNDARY TNGT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN INCREASING WIND ALOFT AND DECREASING 0-1KM
LAPSE RATES. AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG EXPECTED DRG THE 06-15Z
FRIDAY PERIOD BASED ON EXPECTED SFC DEW POINT/SST VALUES.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A DRY LINE/PRE-FRONTAL TROF MOVE E ACROSS S TX ON
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN HOW FAR E THE BDRY GOES. THE
GFS IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED HOT TEMPS ACROSS
THE W CWA...A SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON AND BRING THE
DRY LINE TO A HALT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE E CWA. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN
BACK AND FORTH ON PRECIP CHCS ON SATURDAY...WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ALL SHOWING PRECIP ACROSS AT LEAST THE E-NE CWA. HAVE KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA'S AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME SAT
MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA'S/TSRA'S ACROSS THE
NE FROM 12-18Z. THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE UPPER JET
SHIFTING FARTHER S...A SHORT WAVE PROGD BY ALL THE MODELS TO MV NE
ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING CAPE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE AND PW'S
PROGD TO BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NE DUE TO THE COLLISION OF
THE DRY LINE AND THE SEA BREEZE. THE CIN WILL BE HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF
S TX...BUT IS PROGD TO BE THE LOWEST ACROSS THE NE AND DECREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO HIGHER THAN 20
PERCENT FOR THE NE DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE DRY LINE
WILL STALL IN THE AFTERNOON...IF IT EVEN DOES STALL. HAVE DECREASED
HIGHS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY FOR THE VCT AREA GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP. ALSO SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE HIGHS FARTHER
DOWN THE COAST BUT LEFT THE VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THE W CWA DUE TO A
W-NW FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE DRY LINE. DUE TO VERY LOW
RH VALUES AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE W ON SATURDAY...FIRE
WEATHER DANGER THREAT MAY BE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL. A COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY BUT SHOULD BE DRY AS THE DRY
LINE WILL HAVE PUSHED ANY MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA OUT INTO THE
GULF. COOLER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO S TX THRU SUNDAY
WITH MUCH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
LOWS ARE PROGD TO BE BELOW NORM WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL. A GENERALLY
E TO NE FLOW WILL DVLP SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
ACROSS MARINE AREAS. THE FLOW WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN MOD
ACROSS THE GULF THRU EARLY WED. WINDS ARE PROGD TO VEER TO THE SE BY
WED AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO S TX ON
TUE...BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH SILENT 10 POPS FOR NOW.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 66 83 69 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 76 64 82 66 85 / 10 10 10 20 20
LAREDO 87 66 95 70 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 82 66 88 68 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 72 66 74 68 83 / 10 10 10 20 20
COTULLA 85 62 93 67 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 81 66 86 68 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 73 67 75 69 83 / 10 10 10 10 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 181211
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
411 AM AKDT MON MAR 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AS ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA AS COLD AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TERRITORIES IN CANADA.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA
TODAY WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS WRANGLE ISLAND. AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA BY THIS EVENING...BRINGING SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST AND FLURRIES TO EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS KOTZEBUE SOUND BY FRIDAY MORNING.
BOTH OF THE LONGER TERM MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THE LOCATION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AFTER FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR THIS FEATURE TO PULL IN MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH MAY BRING SNOW TO THE CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR ALASKA BY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CHUKOTKA PENINSULA WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAKER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CHUCKCHI SEA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY AND THEN OVER
THE YUKON DELTA BY THURSDAY. THE MUCH STRONGER SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL IMPACT THE NORTH SLOPE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST AND
LOCATED NEAR BARROW ON WEDNESDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN
BEAUFORT COAST THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ALLOWING FOR STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. NOT ONLY WILL THIS
SYSTEM BRING IN COLDER AIR WITH WIND CHILLS OF 50 BELOW TUESDAY
MORNING AND SNOW OF AN INCH...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF WIND SPEEDS AND
SNOW WILL CAUSE FOR BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES OF A MILE TO
HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES ACROSS THE EASTERN BEAUFORT COAST AND A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL
BE POOR FOR AREAS WEST OF BARTER ISLAND AS THE SURFACE FEATURE
MOVES WEST ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WESTERN ALASKA...OBSERVATIONS OF FOG COMPARE WELL WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF THE MODIS IFR CONDITIONS AT 230 AM AKDT ACROSS
THE YUKON DELTA. EXPECT THIS LOW CLOUD/FOG FEATURES AND REMAINING
FLURRIES TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA EXPECT INCREASED WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE BERING
STRAIT TODAY...ALONG COASTAL ZONES 210 AND 220.

CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT WEEK AS COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGING SOME
FLURRIES TO THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ245.
&&

MAK MAR 13

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 171205
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
405 AM AKDT SUN MAR 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BEAUFORT SEA DOMINATING WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA. THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CHUCKCHI SEA BY
MONDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST TERRITORIES IN
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER IN THE AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA COOLER ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME THE
DOMINANT SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS BARROW BY WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A DISSIPATING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTON SOUND THAT
CAUSED STRONG WINDS AND LOW VISIBILITIES FROM WALES THROUGH TELLER
OVERNIGHT HAS WEAKENED. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER 60
MILES NORTHWEST OF ST MATHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE YUKON
DELTA TODAY AND WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA BEHIND IT AND STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE ALONG THE
BEAUFORT SEA A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE ARCTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

WESTERN ALASKA...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. AT 130 AKST...SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM MODIS INDICATED STRATUS DECK AND HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA. AS THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS YUKON
DELTA...CAN ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND LOCALLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF FOG.

NORTH SLOPE... NOT MUCH CHANGE TODAY BUT A COOLER AND WINDY PERIOD
COMING EARLY TO MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW FEATURE BRINGING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH
SLOPE...THERE IS SOME VARIATION IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. IN ANY MODEL SCENARIO...EXPECT THE
SYSTEM TO BRING SNOW AND STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO THE BLOWING SNOW ACROSS STARTING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY ON
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SLOPE AND SPREADING WEST ON
WEDNESDAY.

CENTRAL AND INTERIOR...SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GET COOLER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO INTO EASTERN PORTIONS
OF ALASKA. SOME VARIATIONS WITHIN THE MODELS REGARDING CHANCES OF
SNOW IN THE ALONG THE ALASKAN RANGE ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. PERHAPS FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

MAK MAR 13

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KMTR 161626
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
926 AM PDT SAT MAR 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...POCKETS OF DENSE FOG
AROUND OUR AREA THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL OBSERVATION POINTS
INDICATING VISIBILITIES AROUND A QUARTER OF A MILE. SATELLITE
SHOWS AN INTERESTING SETUP WITH CLOUDS RIGHT AT THE
COAST...BAYS...AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WHILE SPOTS MORE OFFSHORE ARE
CLEAR. WITH 5 MB FROM THE NORTH AND JUST 1.5 FROM THE WEST STILL
EXPECT THAT MOST SPOTS WILL CLEAR OUT BEFORE NOON. HIGHS IN MOST
SPOTS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S INLAND.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN JUST IN CONTINUES TO BRING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SO FEEL FAIRLY GOOD ABOUT THE CURRENT
PACKAGE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ARE INDC AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE VALLEYS. THE
10Z MODIS IMAGERY IS INDC THAT THE DEPTH OF THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS IS
LESS THAN 1000 FEET.

A SHORTWAVE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE
ISLANDS...WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...AND THEN
DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. THE MAIN EFFECT FOR THE
DISTRICT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...MAINLY INLAND. WEAK
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE DISTRICT DRY RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE DISTRICT TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM
NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS MOVES TO THE COAST. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY AFTN...WITH
RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TO THE COAST...SO WHEREAS RAIN IS LIKELY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
HALF INCH. RAIN WILL BECOME SHOWERY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE COAST. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END
WEDNESDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MOVE
THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA.

AS HAS BEEN THE COMMON REFRAIN SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR
RIDGING WILL BUILD RIGHT BACK ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL. MOS GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
TEMPS REACHING THE MID 70S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS NEXT SATURDAY...
WITH 80S POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.

.AVIATION...AS OF 6:56 AM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN
OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND MONTEREY BAY AREA AFFECTING LOCAL
TERMINALS. THE LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW THEREFORE CIGS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO LINGER TOO LONG. IFR CIGS AROUND 500 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF AROUND 17Z-18Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING THEN STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS WILL BURN OFF AROUND 17Z-18Z THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 15 KT AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS WILL BURN OFF AROUND 17Z
THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTS TO 20 KT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 2 PM

PUBLIC FORECAST: STROBIN
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KMTR 161145
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
445 AM PDT SAT MAR 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY AND
SFC OBS ARE INDC AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND IN THE VALLEYS. THE 10Z MODIS IMAGERY IS INDC THAT THE
DEPTH OF THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS IS LESS THAN 1000 FEET.

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:48 PM PDT FRIDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. FOG IMAGERY
IS SHOWING STRATUS LAYER MAKING A RETURN TO THE COAST WITH HALF
MOON BAY REPORTING 800 FOOT CIGS AND 5 MINUTE DATA OUT OF KSFO
SHOWING OVERCAST 700 FEET ALREADY. GIVING ONSHORE TRENDS EXPECT
CIGS TO FILTER INTO SF BAY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LATEST PACKAGE WILL SHOW A BURN OFF
AROUND 17Z GIVEN SYNOPTIC PATTERN THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON WHY
THE LOW CIGS SHOULD STAY AROUND TOO MUCH LONGER. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LATEST OBS ALREADY SHOW OVERCAST 700 AT KSFO.
EXPECT CIGS TO STAY IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 17Z SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...GIVEN SHALLOW NATURE NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
CIGS OVER SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAY SATURDAY MORNING.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS AT HALF MOON BAY FORECAST
TO REACH KMRY AND KSNS OVERNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MIX OUT BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING.

PUBLIC FORECAST: STROBIN
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXAK69 PAFG 112058
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1258 PM AKDT MON MAR 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE
BERING STRAIT AND MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE CHUCKCHI SEA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SPLIT OFF
AND MOVE ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO EASTERN ALASKA...BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE IT WEST
ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS AFTER FRIDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...THE SUOMI NPP VIIRS SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT WAS
INDICATING A DECENT LAYER OF STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE.
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY INDICATED 1 TO 2 MILES IN
VISIBILITY WITH FLURRIES AND FOG. THE IFR CONDITIONS ALIGN VERY
WELL WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF MODIS IFR PRODUCT. THERE ARE
SOME VERY ISOLATED POCKETS OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF THE MODIS
LIFR CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING OR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
WITHIN THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN...PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND
PERHAPS A BREAK IN SOME OF THE FOG.

OTHERWISE...ONLY UPCOMING WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE COLDER
AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BROOKS
RANGE...PUBLIC ZONE 206 ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COLDER AIR AND
POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD WEST INTO MUCH OF
THE BROOKS RANGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS INCREASE ALONG
THE HILLS.

WESTERN ALASKA...SOMEWHAT QUIET ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA THIS
MORNING EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS LIKE ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND...SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTON SOUND INCLUDING THE ST MICHAELS AREA. THE VIIRS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A DECENT POCKET OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD
PENINSULA INCLUDING NOME AREA AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD ST
MICHAEL. OTHER AREAS OF THE NORTON SOUND AND NULATO HILLS WERE
MOSTLY SUNNY AS FORECASTED AND SEEN IN AREA WEB CAMERAS AND
OBSERVATIONS. THUS UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INDICATE FOG OR PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO REFLECT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
AS EXPECTING TO CLEAR LATER IN THE EVENING. GAMBLE WILL ALSO HAVE
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES UP TO A MILE DUE TO LOW STRATUS IN THE
AREA AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA...FLURRIES EARLIER THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN INTERIOR ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT BIG WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE MUCH
COLDER AIR THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 21 BELOW TO 28 BELOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF ?? TO ??
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN...MANY AREAS ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO HAVE INCREASED WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
STRONGER WINDS AND COLD AIR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR WIND CHILL
CONDITIONS OF 45 BELOW TO 60 BELOW...DEPENDING ON LOCATION...THROUGH
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MAK MAR 13

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KCHS 110154
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
954 PM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. EARLY EVENING
SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST MARINE BASED STRATOCUMULUS IS HAVING A HARD
TIME MOVING MUCH NORTH OF SAINT CATHERINES SOUND WHERE WATER
TEMPERATURES DROP OFF INTO THE LOWER 50S. ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND
HOURLY TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE FORECAST IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL SHIFT OFF
THE U.S. EAST COAST TONIGHT AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE TONIGHT.

THE LOW- LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY VEER MORE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS MARINE
INFLUENCES INCREASE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. MODELS SHOW A SLUG OF
925MB MOISTURE SURGING NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. A LOOK AT LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS EXISTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL WITH 925MB MOISTURE FIELDS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER FAR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND NEAR THE SAINT
SIMMONS AREA SUGGEST SOME OF THIS CLOUD CANOPY IS MOVING ONSHORE.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS...THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TURN
MORE NORTHWEST AND MAKE A RUN FOR NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW MUCH
OF THE STRATOCUMULUS WILL SURVIVE AT IS PROPAGATES OVER THE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER SHELF WATER ENVIRONMENT THAT IS IN PLACE FROM
ROUGHLY SAINT CATHERINES SOUND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER ENTRANCE. 1KM MODIS SEA SURFACE DATA INDICATE WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING THE LOWER 50S WITHIN THE ABOVE CORRIDOR
UNLIKE NEAR SAINT SIMMONS AND JACKSONVILLE WHERE WATER
TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 5-8 DEGREES WARMER.

GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...PLAN TO TAKE A FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE
SKYCAST FOR TONIGHT SHOWING SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY...MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. FARTHER INLAND...SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ONCE A BAND OF CIRRUS
PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND MORE DIURNALLY BASED CUMULUS
DISSIPATES WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES WILL SUPPORT STRONG RADIATIVE PROCESSES...SO WILL LOWER
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY SEVERAL DEGREES INLAND...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS
THE 18Z COOP GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND A PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. DESPITE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INCREASING THICKNESS
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. SE WINDS WILL PRODUCE COOLER TEMPS ON AREA BEACHES. GUIDANCE
DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND PUSHING
ONSHORE...BUT DEPICTION OF CONVECTION/QPF IS LIKELY OVERDONE...THUS
MAINTAINED LOW POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS/ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT...DEEP LAYER WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE
FEATURING PWATS 1.25-1.5 INCH AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCLUDING UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN A BAND OF SHOWERS. PER LATEST GUIDANCE
RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALL AREAS...AND ADDED FORECAST DETAILS
FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION TIMING. SHOWERS WILL ENTER WESTERN COUNTIES
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME AND WILL ADVANCE
STEADILY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...LASTING
4-8 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME
PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM INLAND COUNTIES AND INTO
COASTAL COUNTIES.

TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AVERAGE 0.10 TO 0.25
INCH. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...LOCALLY
GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...GUIDANCE
HINTS AT A SUBTLE DECREASE AND PERHAPS A N/S SPLIT IN PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THUS TAPERED QPF
CLOSER TO 0.10 INCH TOWARD THE COAST.

TUESDAY MORNING...SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EARLY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...WITH CLEARING
ADVANCING INTO INLAND/WESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT PERHAPS
DELAYED ACROSS COASTAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE...SIGNIFICANT
COLD ADVECTION WILL LAG BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FROPA TUESDAY...THUS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS 68-72F.

COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER TO MID
40S MOST AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S POSSIBLE
WELL INLAND AND AROUND 50F LIKELY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE OFFSET OF DEEP LAYER NW FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION...THUS TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
PATTERN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. INITIALLY...THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY.
THEN...RISING HEIGHTS AND AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND. THE 10/12Z EUROPEAN
DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SE THROUGH THE REGION WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SHALLOW LAYER OF GROUND FOG
BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT EXPECT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO PROHIBIT
FORMATION CLOSE TO THE COAST. SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS AFTER SUNRISE...BUT HOLDING OFF ON THOSE UNTIL WE SEE THE
INCREASED MOISTURE ON SATELLITE. WINDS WILL INCREASE MID MORNING AS
THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE
AREA...MAINTAINING AN ONSHORE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. A
SIGNIFICANT 14-15 SECOND LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL...ORIGINATING
FROM A DEEP LOW WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE WATERS TONIGHT. COMBINED SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-4 FT
RANGE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS BUT AS HIGH AS 5-8 FT OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...EXPECT ELEVATED WINDS AND COMBINED SEAS
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. SE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING
WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SW AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. 6-8 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WATERS BEYOND
20 NM...AND 6 FT SEAS COULD PUSH TO WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. AS OF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
PER 10/12Z WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...EXTENDED THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AMZ374 INTO THURSDAY...BUT DID NOT YET ISSUE ADDITIONAL
SCAS FOR NEARSHORE WATERS.

IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA TUESDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE
W/NW...THEN COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A SURGE OF STRONGER NW WINDS
PROBABLY ATTAINING SCA STRENGTH MOST AREAS FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN...WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND WILL
PROBABLY AVERAGE LESS THAN 15 KT THURSDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL ALSO SUBSIDE INTO THE 1-3 FT
RANGE BY LATE WEEK.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.

ST/BDC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KCHS 102322
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
722 PM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER RIDGE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL SHIFT OFF
THE U.S. EAST COAST TONIGHT AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE TONIGHT.

SOME CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY VEER MORE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SLOW INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS MARINE INFLUENCES INCREASE
FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. MODELS SHOW A SLUG OF 925MB MOISTURE
SURGING NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ATOP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. A
LOOK AT LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS EXISTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL WITH 925MB MOISTURE FIELDS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS OVER FAR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND NEAR THE SAINT SIMMONS
AREA SUGGEST SOME OF THIS CLOUD CANOPY IS MOVING ONSHORE. AS THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS...THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE
NORTHWEST AND MAKE A RUN FOR NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW MUCH
OF THE STRATOCUMULUS WILL SURVIVE AT IS PROPAGATES OVER THE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER SHELF WATER ENVIRONMENT THAT IS IN PLACE
FROM ROUGHLY SAINT CATHERINES SOUND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. 1KM MODIS IMAGERY SEA SURFACE DATA
INDICATE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING THE LOWER 50S WITHIN THE
ABOVE CORRIDOR UNLIKE NEAR SAINT SIMMONS AND JACKSONVILLE WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 5-8 DEGREES WARMER.

COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER TO MID
40S MOST AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S POSSIBLE
WELL INLAND AND AROUND 50F LIKELY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SHALLOW LAYER OF GROUND FOG
BEFRE SUNRISE...BUT EXPECT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO PROHIBIT
FORMATION CLOSE TO THE COAST. SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS AFTER SUNRISE...BUT HOLDING OFF ON THOSE UNTIL WE SEE THE
INCREASED MOISTURE ON SATELLITE. WINDS WILL INCREASE MID MORNING AS
THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.

ST/BDC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 032145
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
345 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE WEST COAST (WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA) PROGD TO ENTER THE CNTRL CONUS EARLY
MONDAY THEN MERGE INTO A STG UPPER LOW WITH AXIS MOVG EAST OF THE
PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE CWA/MSA WITH STG WIND AT 925MB OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL MIXING
MONDAY WL CONTRIBUTE TO BREEZY/WINDY SOUTH WIND MONDAY AFTN
PRIMARILY OVER THE ERN CWA. OWING TO SOUTH WIND COMPONENT...DRY
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL. THE COMBINATION OF DRY
AIR/SOUTH WIND WL CONTRIBUTE TO HOT CONDITIONS OVER THE WRN CWA
WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S OVER THE FAR WEST. AS THE FOREGOING
UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST...THE GFS/NAM PROG A FRONT TO APPROACH THE
NRN CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM.
THE PSN OF THE UPPER SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND THUS MORE CONFIDENT IN THE SLOWER NAM.

.MARINE...VERTICAL MIXING OF THE INCREASING MOMENTUM ALOFT
(30-40KT FROM NAM 925MB AT 12Z MONDAY) MENTIONED ABOVE WL
CONTRIBUTE TO SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
WHEN CONSIDERING NAM 0-1KM LAPSE RATES/MODIS SST VALUES.
ANTICIPATE THAT LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING WL RESULT IN SCEC OVER THE
BAYS TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY MONDAY MID
MORNING. ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
THE PERIOD BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND FOR THE BAY WATERS BEGINNING
14Z MONDAY. EXTENDED SCA ONLY TO 00Z TUESDAY OWING TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING SCA OVER THE BAYS BY THEN.

.FIRE WEATHER...THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WARRANTS AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITION
OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND FOR MONDAY AFTN.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME EXPECT IT TO BE ALONG THE COAST BY AROUND 15Z. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING WINDS TO 20 TO
30 MPH LEADING TO A FIRE WEATHER RISK. WILL HOLD ON TO THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW...BUT AN UPGRADE TO RED FLAG WARNING IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW. THE RIDGE WILL THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD BY
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FLOW LOOKS TO BE MORE
EFFICIENT AT INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THAN ANYTHING WE/VE
SEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. SOME POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD
START SEEING SOME STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
THINGS ARE LOOKING SOMEWHAT PROMISING FOR SOME MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT REALLY DECIDED ON A
SOLUTION...BUT GENERAL IDEA IS THAT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL OR
SOUTH TEXAS BY SUNDAY. WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER FARTHER TO
THE NORTH...WOULD EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER A FEW DAYS OF MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME HOPE AT PRECIP. GOING TO HOLD WITH
JUST 20 POPS FOR NOW UNTIL THINGS GET MORE CLEAR.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...NOTHING TOO OUT OF THE ORDINARY. AFTER THE
WARMTH ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK
COOL...BUT THEN TEMPS MODERATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 58 84 60 74 42 / 0 0 0 10 0
VICTORIA 54 78 57 69 37 / 0 0 0 10 0
LAREDO 55 93 54 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 53 90 55 74 41 / 0 0 0 10 0
ROCKPORT 60 73 61 70 44 / 0 0 0 10 0
COTULLA 51 91 51 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 54 88 59 74 39 / 0 0 0 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 61 76 62 73 48 / 0 0 0 10 0

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...
GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...
MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...
WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O'CONNOR.

WC/87...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KABQ 261020
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 AM MST TUE FEB 26 2013

.DISCUSSION...
TRICKY FORECAST DETAILS WILL INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TODAY
AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ALOFT QUICKLY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A PRONOUNCED JET WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THIS OPEN WAVE TROUGH AND DRAG ITS WAY THROUGH NM. THE
SYNOPTIC COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SAG INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
STATE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASED SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO ORIENT ITSELF FROM NW-SE OVER THE STATE. WILL HOIST WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS DOWN TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST H7 WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SKIM THIS HIGHER COUNTRY. MANY ADJACENT AREAS WILL LIKELY COME
VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...MAYBE EVEN HITTING FOR AN OB
OR TWO...BUT FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY IN THE EAST CENTRAL AREAS. MODIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED A PATCHWORK OF
SNOW PACK WITH SEVERAL HOLES OF BARE GROUND SHOWING...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE PECOS VALLEY. THIS WILL CREATE AND COMPLICATE MESOSCALE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS OVER RELATIVELY SHORT SPATIAL DISTANCES.
WHILE WINDS WOULD BE DOWNSLOPING IN MUCH OF THIS AREA...SOME COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE AT WORK AND MUCH OF THE WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE ORIGINATING OR FLOWING OVER A DENSER SNOW
PACK. HAVE TRIED TO HEDGE BELOW GUIDANCE AGAIN WHERE SNOW PACK WAS
REVEALED ON SATELLITE...BUT AGAIN THIS IS A TOUGH ONE TO PINPOINT.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NM TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY ONLY 1 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. THUS...NO ADVISORIES FOR SNOW WILL BE ISSUED.

SOME LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN THE SANGRES/RATON
RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY...JUST TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
SNEAKY LEFTOVER FORCING/OROGRAPHICS IN THE PESKY NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY...SO WINDS WILL SEE A
WELCOME DECLINE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY...10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW LATE FEBRUARY NORMALS.

ON THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMES OUR WAY...AND ACTUALLY
MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING MORE DISTINCT ENERGY GOING FARTHER
SOUTH...AN ARTIFACT OF THE SOUTHERN OR SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF THE
JET HANGING NEARBY. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LACKING FOR ANY
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION WITH THIS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
UNABLE TO START ANY KIND OF REBOUND. DRY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP ON THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT BY SATURDAY A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
BUILDS IN...FINALLY PROVIDING A PERSUASIVE UPWARD NUDGE TO
TEMPERATURES.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...BUT THE FLOW WILL
ALREADY BEGIN TO TURN MORE ZONAL IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL
FAVOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE INTO MONDAY AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION GOES...AND NOTHING TOO ROBUST IS IN THE WORKS YET.

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS BY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO POTENTIALLY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DISTURBANCE TO DIVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY...SWEEPING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
STATE. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS. PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE RGV...AND
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/SOUTH CENTRAL MTS...WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 50 OR 55
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. RH HAS TRENDED UP A
BIT SINCE 24 HOURS AGO THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE IN THE MIDDLE/LOWER
RGV. VENTILATION WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVER THE MAJORITY OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND FAR NORTHEAST. THEREFORE VENTILATION WILL
BE FAIR TO POOR EAST AND CENTRAL AND GOOD EAST.

ANOTHER BUT WEAKER TROUGH TO PASS OVER NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY. WINDS MAY TURN OUT TO BE
STRONGER FRIDAY AS A BRISK NORTH FLOW ALOFT MORPHS INTO THE RIDGE
ALOFT BY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN VENTILATION
RATES IS NOTED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. VENT RATES WORSEN SATURDAY
BUT IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME WESTERLY AND
STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF AN INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WHILE A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM TO NEAR AVERAGE SATURDAY AND EVEN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CANT RULE OUT
PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BETWEEN
07Z AND 14Z ACROSS SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN IS AROUND CLOVIS. STRONG WINDS RETURN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 22 TO 32 KTS AND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KTS
FROM ROUGHLY FARMINGTON TO SANTA ROSA. SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TOWARDS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TUESDAY
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MT OBSCURATIONS. 40

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 37 13 38 12 / 5 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 33 4 35 -3 / 20 10 5 0
CUBA............................ 36 7 37 11 / 10 5 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 40 5 40 7 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 35 10 36 10 / 5 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 42 6 41 14 / 5 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 46 9 39 9 / 5 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 54 20 52 21 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 31 2 32 1 / 30 20 10 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 36 18 36 19 / 10 5 5 5
PECOS........................... 40 13 41 16 / 10 5 10 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 31 5 32 4 / 30 20 10 0
RED RIVER....................... 28 -1 28 -2 / 40 40 20 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 31 -3 30 -4 / 30 30 20 5
TAOS............................ 34 7 34 8 / 30 20 10 0
MORA............................ 37 12 37 11 / 10 20 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 42 18 38 13 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 38 15 36 17 / 10 5 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 40 16 39 17 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 42 22 40 21 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 44 24 42 24 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 46 19 44 18 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 46 20 44 21 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 51 19 47 19 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 45 22 44 24 / 5 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 49 21 49 24 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 37 12 36 13 / 5 5 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 41 19 39 16 / 5 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 43 16 41 13 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 37 10 38 17 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 44 17 43 21 / 5 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 52 23 48 25 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 45 22 40 22 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 37 11 35 11 / 40 40 20 5
RATON........................... 39 13 37 12 / 30 30 20 5
SPRINGER........................ 39 17 39 13 / 20 20 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 39 11 37 12 / 5 10 5 5
CLAYTON......................... 42 18 44 19 / 10 20 10 5
ROY............................. 41 17 42 17 / 10 20 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 46 22 47 21 / 5 10 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 48 21 47 18 / 5 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 46 20 46 17 / 5 10 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 43 18 44 20 / 5 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 43 17 43 18 / 5 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 49 20 48 21 / 5 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 67 29 52 31 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 50 22 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 57 19 46 21 / 5 0 0 0

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ521>524-526-529-533-539.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 241024
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
424 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE FOG IS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE COASTAL BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY...IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS...INCLUDING THE CITY OF CORPUS CHRISTI HAVE ONLY
OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...NOTED VIA WEB CAMS AND 11-3.9
MICRON SATELLITE PRODUCT. FOG CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING FURTHER. THIS MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
A SHALLOW SURFACE LAYER MAINLY BELOW 900-850 MB. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR STREAMER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER PROGGED MID LEVEL TEMPS COULD ALLOW
FOR AN ERODING CAP THIS AFTERNOON. THINK WE SHOULD JUST HAVE
SHOWERS...IF ANYTHING TODAY...BUT A THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH. ONLY A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE MODELS
GO OUT THROUGH TONIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT THE TTU WRF DOES BRING A
VERY THIN LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA.
WILL HAVE THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER JET PUSHING WITH GOOD TIMING
TONIGHT. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY THE JET LINES UP AND
WHICH QUAD WE WILL BE IN. SOME VARIATION IN MODELS...BUT MOST
SUGGEST THE BEST DYNAMICS/TIMING TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY INTO THE VICTORIA AREA. HAVE LEFT THE
20/30 POPS GOING FROM YESTERDAY WITH PLENTY OF DOUBT STILL IN PLAY
WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND THE CAP POTENTIALLY BEING
REINFORCED BEFORE THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES IN.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING. 850 AND 925 MB WINDS
AS STRONG AS 50 TO 60 KNOTS ARE INDICATED IN ALL GUIDANCE...AND
SHOULD SEE A PORTION OF THAT MIX DOWN. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ABOVE 40 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
THESE WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY PRETTY CLEAR WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE TOUGH HOWEVER. DESPITE GUIDANCE
INDICATING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 70S...HAVE A TOUGH TIME BELIEVING
THIS TO BE POSSIBLE WITH A 30 KT NORTHWESTERLY WIND AND THICKNESS
VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 550 AND 560 DURING THE DAY. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE FAR EAST INDICATED AROUND 70...BUT THAT WOULD LIKELY BE
PRE-FRONTAL. THINK DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST
EVERYONE...AND WILL FEEL COOLER THAN THAT WITH THE BRISK WIND.

.LONG TERM...DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF PROG THE STRONG UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER TX/SRN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO
LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM MERGES WITH IT
FROM THE WEST. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT (PER 1000-500MB THICKNESS) WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EARLY TUESDAY. (CONSIDERING BOTH THE
EXPECTED COLDER AIR MONDAY NIGHT AND THE CURRENT MODIS SST VALUES
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...STRONG SCA
LIKELY/GALE PBL MONDAY EVENING.) IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER PATTERN
AFTER THE FOREGOING MERGER...ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACRS THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT (OWING TO DRYING IN RESPONSE TO THE MONDAY FRONT.) SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES NOTWITHSTANDING...THE GFS/ECMWF PROG AN UPPER PATTERN
WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE (MEAN TROUGH WEST COAST AND MEAN TROUGH ERN
CONUS) DEVELOPS LATE IN THE PERIOD. SUCH WL BE CONDUCIVE TO A
REINFORCING SURGE OF MSLP OVER THER REGION FRIDAY. THUS...DRY
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE PERIOD WITH BELOW AVERAGE
MIN TEMPS.

.MARINE...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OPEN WATER AREAS ON
MONDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE QUICKLY
AND CURRENT FORECAST IS RIGHT AROUND GALE FORCE. A GALE WARNING
WOULD BE NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY FOR THE BAYS.

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL RESULT IN
EXTREME FIRE RISK FOR MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS
OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET MONDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 63 71 41 74 / 10 20 20 0 0
VICTORIA 72 60 68 39 71 / 10 30 30 0 0
LAREDO 80 57 70 40 78 / 10 10 10 0 0
ALICE 78 61 70 40 76 / 10 20 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 71 64 71 45 69 / 20 30 20 0 0
COTULLA 78 56 66 37 74 / 10 20 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 77 63 71 39 76 / 10 20 20 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 71 66 72 47 70 / 20 20 20 0 0

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 180305
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
905 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2013

.UPDATE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY OR EVEN RISING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH
THE LATE NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS WHERE SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE TO OVER 35 F. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM RAPIDLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MRNG SO THAT IT EVENTUALLY INTERACTS WITH SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI TO PRODUCE AREAS OF -RA FROM LATE MRNG
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE -RA MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO -SN IN
THE LATE AFTN IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE EVENING IN
THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING FOR A TIME.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE
TIME THE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN MAY BRIEFLY MIX
WITH OR TURN TO LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AT KMSN AND IN THE
EVENING FARTHER EAST. LLWS STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS ABOVE 1K AGL.

.MARINE...HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS IMAGERY FROM TODAY SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT ICE GROWTH IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM OAK CREEK SOUTH
TO WINTHROP HARBOR AND BEYOND. ICE MORE PATCHY AND THINNER FARTHER
NORTH TO PORT WASHINGTON AND SHEBOYGAN. LIGHTER WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND CONTRIBUTED TO THE ICE DEVELOPMENT.
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND STRONGER WINDS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY BREAK THE ICE UP.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE PLAINS. BLUSTERY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
KAVINSKY

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KBUF 120003
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
703 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC
TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWING SEVERAL BANDS OF PRECIP
CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THESE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY WET SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP WILL FOLLOW THIS ACTIVITY...
FOLLOWED BY MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING
LAKE ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE LAKES...ESPECIALLY ONTARIO IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO COLDER AIR ALOFT AND DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND INTO QUEBEC OVER THE NEXT 12HRS...THEN TO NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY MOVED
INTO WESTERN NY...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO AND
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

UPSTREAM IN THE COLD POOL...A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
PRECIP CAN BE FOUND OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT /USING 500MB AS A PROXY/ WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY COLD AIR MAKING IT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH FOR AT LEAST SOME MINOR LAKE RESPONSE...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.

LAKE EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...850MB TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY
DROP TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. LAKE ONTARIO IS
ABOUT 3-4C BASED OFF OF MODIS AND OBSERVATIONS...MAKING FOR
MARGINALLY INTERESTING LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. THERE MAY ALSO BE
TOO MUCH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE LAKE FOR A SINGLE LAKE BAND.
HOWEVER...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DECENT FETCH TOGETHER WITH
FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE AT THE EAST END OF THE LAKE AS WINDS SLOW
DOWN AND PILE UP...THIS SHOULD ALL FAVOR PERSISTENT SNOW EAST OF THE
LAKE. THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW RATHER THAN LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES. THIS
WILL CONFINE THE ADVISORY CRITERIA AMOUNTS TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU
AND PERHAPS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. EVEN THOUGH
THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT PURELY LAKE EFFECT...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY IS STILL THE BEST MEANS TO CONVEY THE MESSAGE THAT THE
HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE...ONLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT TOTALS TO REACH THE 5-9 INCH RANGE IN A FEW
SPOTS ON THE TUG HILL...WITH GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

LAKE EFFECT FOR EAST OF LAKE ERIE...COLD AIR MOVES IN MORE QUICKLY
HERE...BUT ALSO A CAP AROUND 4000 FT DEVELOPS EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS...PLUS LESS FETCH...WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN TYPICAL UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...
CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES MORE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE
THAN LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES...WITH SCATTERED LIGHT OR
NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

WIND...EXPECT A SLOW INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING...WITH
TYPICALLY FAVORED EXPOSED AREAS/SHORELINE LOCATIONS FEELING THE
HIGHEST GUSTS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIND GUSTS IN THE 45-50
RANGE...AND WILL KEEP THIS UNCHANGED IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...MAINLY FINGER LAKES WEST COINCIDING WITH MIXING WITH
HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. SOME OF THESE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WERE ALREADY
CREEPING INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT 3PM.

ON TUESDAY...ASIDE FROM CONTINUING LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAINLY EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND TO A LESSER EXTENT EAST OF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT ANY
LINGERING FLURRY ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND CONTINUED MID LEVEL DRYING WILL WEAKEN THE
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTICUALRLY EAST
OF LK ERIE WHERE THE DRYING WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED. FRESH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH EAST OF ERIE AND ONE TO TWO
INCHES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE TUG. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING BY TO OUR SOUTH WILL PROVIDE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH TEMPERATURES SETTLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25.

ON WEDNESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN A DIGGING SHORTWAVE
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GENERAL SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL PRODUCE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH
ANY REMAINING NUISANCE LAKE SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO AN END.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
NEAR 40. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING WILL
CARVE ITS WAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHILE ITS ATTENDENT SFC LOW WILL BE FOUND IN THE VCNTY OF THE SOO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

THE AFORMENTIONED SFC LOW WILL CROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND SWEEP ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
ALOFT FROM PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES (PRONOUNCED CHANNELLED VORT)
TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE BULK OF THIS
PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA WILL PRODUCE A FEED OF CANADIAN ARCTIC AIR ACROSS OUR
REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL STORM (AS PER THE GFS)...ANY SUCH STORM WOULD HAVE A LIMITED
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. IN FACT...LOW IMPACT WEATHER CAN BE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE ACCUMULATIONS.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A
FEW AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION
WITH SPOTTY MVFR VSBY...AND EVEN SOME IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE TUG HILL WHERE PRECIP BECOMES ALL SNOW. BY LATE EVENING THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARDS MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO SPREADS EAST. A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE VSBY WILL TREND DOWN TO IFR OVERNIGHT. EAST OF
LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER EXPECT MVFR VSBY TO
BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER ABOUT 03Z WITH SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT MAINLY VFR VSBY OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY IFR VSBY WILL LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. MVFR VSBY WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT MAINLY VFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS IN THE 35-45
KNOT RANGE...STRONGEST NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE FROM KBUF-KIAG OVER TO
KROC. WINDS WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
GUSTS WILL STILL RUN IN THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS

.MARINE...
WESTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM WEST
TO EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>004-010>014-
019>021-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ006-
008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043-
062-063.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ044-045-064-065.

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...ZAFF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KBUF 112034
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
334 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND INTO QUEBEC OVER THE NEXT 12HRS...THEN TO NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY MOVED
INTO WESTERN NY...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO AND
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

LAKE EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...850MB TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY
DROP TO -10C BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. LAKE ONTARIO IS ABOUT 3-4C BASED
OFF OF MODIS AND OBSERVATIONS...MAKING FOR MARGINALLY INTERESTING
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. THERE MAY ALSO BE TOO MUCH DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR OVER THE LAKE FOR A SINGLE LAKE BAND. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND DECENT FETCH TOGETHER WITH FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE LAKE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SNOWFALL TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THE MAIN AREA OF INTEREST WILL AS USUAL BE THE
TRIPLE POINT OF LEWIS...JEFFERSON...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES...IE TUG
HILL...THEN SOUTHERN TUG HILL ON TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT
MORE ORIENTED TO THE WNW.

LAKE EFFECT FOR EAST OF LAKE ERIE...COLD AIR MOVES IN MORE QUICKLY
HERE...BUT ALSO A CAP AROUND 4000 FT DEVELOPS EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS...PLUS LESS FETCH...WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN TYPICAL UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN ERIE...WESTERN CHAUTAUQUA
AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES...WITH WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT OR
NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY...ASIDE FROM CONTINUING LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAINLY EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND TO A LESSER EXTENT EAST OF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT ANY
LINGERING FLURRY ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF.

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILING ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS A COLD AIRMASS WORKS IT WAY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS IN
BETWEEN STANDARD TAF LOCATIONS...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
KJHW. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER WESTERN NY AREAS...WITH SOME BLOWING
SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE EFFECT BANDS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MORE
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>003-010>012-
019-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ006-008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-013-014-020-
021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043-
062-063.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LOZ045.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ044-045-064-065.

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KBUF 111801
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
101 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY TODAY...WITH SOME FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND A WINTRY MIX EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. AFTER THIS WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...CAUSING RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STACKED LOW SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
WNY...WITH A NARROW BOUNDARY PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 30S...WITH
GUSTY WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING UPSTREAM. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

FOR WINDS...ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY...EXPECT WINDS TO
SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH
GUSTS IN THE 45-50 MPH RANGE /ADVISORY/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ALOFT ARE PRIMARILY
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...SO WINDS WILL
SLACKEN OFF TOWARD THE EAST...SO CURRENT ADVISORY CUTOFF OF CAYUGA
COUNTY LOOKING GOOD AT THIS TIME. EXPECT HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ALONG
THE LAKESHORES. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

FOR SNOW...TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL TO ABOUT -10C AT 850MB IN THE
WEST TONIGHT...AND ONLY -6 TO -8C OR SO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ALBEIT
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. WHILE THIS IS BARELY ENOUGH
FOR A GOOD LAKE RESPONSE GIVEN LAKE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 0-1C IN
LAKE ERIE AND 3-4C OVER LAKE ONTARIO BASED OFF OF LATEST MODIS
GUIDANCE AND POINT OBSERVATIONS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FETCH OFF
THE LAKE TO WARRANT A LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SNOW
WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TUG HILL
AND WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS
OF OSWEGO AND LEWIS COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY /T-3
INCHES/ ACCUMULATIONS IN UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF LAKE ERIE...WITH
T-1 INCHES ELSEWHERE.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...YET THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN
THESE SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THE
FLOW VEERING A LITTLE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION WILL BE MORE FOCUSED UPON OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS
COUNTIES.

WEDNESDAY FURTHER DRYING ALOFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING AN
END TO THE WEAK LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
EXPECT JUST A CHANCE FOR MORNING LAKE EFFECT SNOW...CARRYING
NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING TO FLURRIES JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS OUR REGION...CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH...AND WITH
THE AXIS OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WE SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO THICKEN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WELL
AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST. A PRIMARY SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK TO ABOUT WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW THAT
WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MISS OUR
AREA...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BRUSH BY
THE UPPER GENESEE RIVER VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH A SPOT 40 POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...GFS/ECMWF FEATURE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A LARGE BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S FROM THE COLORADO ROCKIES TO
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. INITIALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND THEN ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TREND
COLDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND SATURDAY TO SUNDAY.

A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SET THE STAGE...IT IS
FORECAST TO TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PICK UP
ACROSS THE REGION..THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH TIMING AND THE GENERAL STRENGTH OF THE
CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NY WILL SEE A
GRADUAL RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL TAF LOCATIONS FREE OF PRECIPITATION AS OF 15Z BUT WITH SOME
RESIDUAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS IN THE WEST AND 30KTS IN THE
EAST. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH MORE
CONCENTRATED SNOW IN BETWEEN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE
ERIE...AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT OCCASIONALLY MIX DOWN. AFTER
THIS...EXPECT A BIT OF LULL...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
AROUND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CAUSE AN
INCREASE TO 35 KNOT GALES BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT GALES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH NO
HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>003-010>012-
019-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ006-008.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ004-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
041.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043-
062-063.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LOZ045.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR LOZ044-045-064-065.

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KBUF 111449
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
949 AM EST MON FEB 11 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STACKED LOW SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING. A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM LAKE HURON SOUTH
THROUGH OH. AHEAD OF THIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT
MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND WILL DROP MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED ADVISORIES FROM THE FORECAST.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVE...THE DRY SLOT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN NY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
COOLING AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IT A
PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS.../GUSTING 45-50 MPH FOR THIS EVENT/
LASTING INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
LAKESHORES. AS WIND VEERS FROM SW TO W...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
INLAND AS WELL. WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONGER OVER FAR WESTERN NY THAN
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE...SO CURRENT ADVISORY CUTOFF
OF CAYUGA COUNTY LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

LATER TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL TO ABOUT -10C AT 850MB IN
THE WEST...AND ONLY -6 OR SO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ALBEIT WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. THIS IS HARDLY ENOUGH FOR A GOOD LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN LAKE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 0-1C IN LAKE ERIE AND 3-4C
OVER LAKE ONTARIO BASED OFF OF LATEST MODIS GUIDANCE AND POINT
OBSERVATIONS. WILL WAIT FOR NEW GUIDANCE TO DETERMINE IF ADVISORIES
ARE NEEDED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY /T-3
INCHES/ ACCUMULATIONS IN UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF LAKE ERIE...WITH T-1
INCHES ELSEWHERE.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE A
MARGINAL SET UP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...WITH THE MAIN FORCING
MECHANISM BEING MORE THE UPSLOPE FLOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
BOTH GREAT LAKES.

TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL DROP TO AROUND -10C THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WHICH CREATES VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY OFF LAKE ERIE...AND
ONLY MINOR LAKE INSTABILITY OFF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...DRIER AIR BEHIND AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LOWER THIS MOISTURE TO JUST BELOW THE SNOW
CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE...AND WITH WEAK UPWARD OMEGA FORCING THERE WILL
NOT BE GOOD SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO...AND CATEGORICAL POPS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS WNY TUESDAY AND THIS WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR A SNOW SHOWER EVEN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO CAUSE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO BE TRANSITORY THROUGH
THE DAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS SNOW EVENT
FOR THE TUG HILL REGION CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER WITH A CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE WILL
JUST MENTION THE PROSPECTS FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS IN THE HWO.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL NOT CLIMB TOO MUCH FROM THEIR MORNING
LOWS...WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY LARGELY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT
AS THE SURFACE LOW CARRIES FARTHER EASTWARD THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA
AND WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN THE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...YET THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN THESE
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THE FLOW VEERING
A LITTLE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
WILL BE MORE FOCUSED UPON OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL TAF LOCATIONS FREE OF PRECIPITATION AS OF 15Z BUT WITH SOME
RESIDUAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS IN THE WEST AND 30KTS IN THE
EAST. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH MORE
CONCENTRATED SNOW IN BETWEEN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ004-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
041.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR LEZ020-040-041.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043-062-063.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LOZ045.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR LOZ044-045-064-065.

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 092146
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
346 PM CST SAT FEB 9 2013

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/
STREAMLINE DATA REVEAL AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TX/SRN PLAINS.
THE GFS PROGS THIS SYSTEM TO LIFT NORTHEAST DRG THE PERIOD WHILE
THE ASSOCIATED STRONG JET DYNAMICS MOVES ACRS CNTRL TX OVERNIGHT/
EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY. YET...THIS FRONT IS
PROGD TO STALL NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH IS
REASONABLE SINCE THE FOREGOING UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS AWAY. IN
RESPONSE TO THE JET...THE 0-6KM VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE CWA/MSA
SHOULD INCREASE. BASED ON GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS...EXPECT BRN VALUES IN
THE SUPERCELLULAR RANGE OVER THE CWA. YET...CIN VALUES ARE PROGD
TO BE HIGH OVERNIGHT YET INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS MAY RESULT IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION (ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWA.) NEVERTHELESS...THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT PARCELS TO
THEIR LFC VALUES. THUS...ANTICIPATE MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
WITH THUNDER OVER THE NRN CWA SINCE CLOSER TO THE FRONT/UPPER
DYNAMICS. THE GREATEST POPS WL BE CONFINED TO THE NERN CWA FOR
TNGT/EARLY SUNDAY. GFS/NAM PROG ISENTROPIC DESCENT/DRYING OVER THE
CWA SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN.
SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF THE STALLED FRONT/WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES/MSTR TO GENERATE PCPN. (THE GFS ALSO PROGS
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.)

.MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT (NAM 925KT 40-45KT WIND) AND
SIGNIFICANT (YET NOT DRY ADIABATIC) NAM 0-1KM LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT. NAM/GFS/LOCAL WRF-ARW
CONSISTENT WITH 20KT+ SFC WIND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. YET...
BASED ON COMPARISON OF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT WITH BUOY DATA AND
ANALYSIS OF 2-KM MODIS SST...EXPECT SCA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT
LEAST UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY. YET...DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL AROUND 06Z SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK FRONTAL BDRY IS PROGD
TO DRIFT S ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY
AND LIGHT. THE BDRY IS PROGD TO STALL ALONG THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT
THEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON TUE.
MODELS HAVE VARIED ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT. THE LATEST
RUNS WERE ALL WEAKER WITH THE WIND SPEEDS...HOWEVER 35-40KT NW FLOW
AT 925MB SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX BY TUE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. THEREFORE KEPT WINDS STRONGER THAN WHAT MODELS SUGGESTED
BUT DID LOWER THEM SOMEWHAT GIVEN THIS IS DAY 4 AND MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT. AS FOR PRECIP...KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ON MONDAY
WITH THE STALLING BDRY AND OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS SETTING UP ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS MAY NEED TO BE CHANGED TO STRATIFORM RAIN DURING
LATER UPDATES IF THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES. SHRA/TSRA CHCS INCREASE ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AS THE STRONGER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODELS SHOW INCREASING CAPE AND LI ALONG WITH THE RRQ OF A
140KT UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASING HELICITY VALUES NEAR 300 AND PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES BY
TUE 12Z. IF THESE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE...THEN STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SVR WX WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE CAVEAT IS A STRONG SW LOW LEVEL FLOW
WITH A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH TYPICALLY WINS OUT ACROSS S TX.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER...DRIER AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DVLP BY TUE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FROPA...THE THREAT
OF FIRE WEATHER MAY BECOME ELEVATED TO CRITICAL ON TUE. COOLER TEMPS
WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE BY WED/WED NIGHT. THEN WARMER THU AHD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SOMETIME FRI OR SATURDAY...THE ECMWF BEING THE
SLOWER MODEL. THERE ARE ALSO DISCREPANCIES AS TO PRECIP WITH THE
LATE WEEK FRONT. FOR NOW KEPT THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THIS
LATER FRONT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 68 85 61 76 62 / 20 20 30 20 30
VICTORIA 66 79 51 73 53 / 30 30 20 20 30
LAREDO 67 83 63 78 63 / 20 10 20 20 20
ALICE 68 87 60 77 63 / 20 20 30 20 30
ROCKPORT 66 76 58 72 60 / 20 20 30 20 30
COTULLA 65 80 54 75 56 / 30 10 20 20 20
KINGSVILLE 68 87 62 77 64 / 20 10 30 20 30
NAVY CORPUS 67 77 63 74 64 / 20 20 30 20 30

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KCHS 190233
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
933 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK...PROVIDING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS HOW MUCH
STRATOCUMULUS WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND HOW FAR INLAND WILL IT
PROGRESS. SATELLITE SHOWS STRATOCUMULUS STEADILY EXPANDING OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND MOVING WEST. USUALLY THE COLD JANUARY SHELF
WATERS TEND TO DISSIPATE OR AT LEAST DISRUPT STRATOCUMULUS MOVING
ONSHORE...BUT GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL--UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S PER 1KM MODIS SEA SURFACE
DATA--IT APPEARS A GOOD BIT OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE ONSHORE
AND AFFECT AT LEAST THE COASTAL COUNTIES. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDDED
AND TEXT FORECASTS TO SHOW SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY
CLEAR FARTHER TO THE WEST. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INLAND
THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WILL ADVECT...BUT GIVEN THE COOL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO PUSH
MUCH BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH THE DOMINATING SKY
CHARACTER WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS OF
THICKER SKY COVER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY.

THERE WILL BE A FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER-MID 40S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER
THIS EVENING TO HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SINCE QUITE A
BIT OF POLLEN AND SOME BLOOMING PLANTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED GIVEN
THE NEARLY 10 DAYS OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW JUST
OFFSHORE COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. WHILE SOME HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS
APPROACHING THE GEORGIA COAST...THEY APPEAR OVERDONE GIVEN THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. THEREFORE PLAN
TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR ALL LAND AREAS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ADVECTED ONSHORE DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THE TRAJECTORIES
HAVE MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT...AND EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS TO RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THESE
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME...BUT PREFER TO LEAN
TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS VALUES WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH
FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH A FEW MID 60S POSSIBLE TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE
AREA...CAUSING THE EXISTING HIGH OVER THE REGION TO WEAKEN AND
ANOTHER HIGH TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS...ANY
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS OFFSHORE WILL DISSIPATE AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S WELL
INLAND AND IN OTHER SHELTERED LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE
AWAY FROM THE WARMER COAST.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING UPPER
LEVEL JET COULD PROVIDE FOR SOME CIRRUS...BUT OVERALL LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A DOWNSLOPE/WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S WELL INLAND WITH LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE
MAY INDUCE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ACCORDING TO THE NAM...BUT ANY IMPACTS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA EVEN IF IT DOES DEVELOP. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN-FREE. SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A DEVELOPING WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF SOME...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL MAKE WAY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH ADVANCES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH TUESDAY...LEADING TO COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE LOW 50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO A
WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...TEMPS WILL APPROACH 60
DEGREES THURSDAY...THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD INCREASE BY EARLY WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT MARINE
BASED STRATOCUMULUS COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE ONSHORE AFTER 09Z AS
ISENTROPIC ASSENT INITIATES OFFSHORE. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS
NO PROBABILITIES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE. OPTED NOT TO INTRODUCE SUB-VFR CIGS WITH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...BUT THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
MVFR CIGS COULD BECOME ESTABLISHED AT EITHER KSAV OR KCHS BETWEEN
09-15Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SHIFTED EAST AND
SOUTH. REPORTS FROM 41008 SUGGEST THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE CANCELLED. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN FLAGS FOR THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER ALL
COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WATERS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE LINGERING 6 FEET SEAS OVER THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING...AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A RESULT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO THEN
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS BETWEEN 1-3
FEET...SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT TIMES OVER THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM FROM
THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS STRONG/COLD REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WINDS APPROACH 25 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS
BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 170942
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
442 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

RUC ANALYZED H850 TEMPS OF -23C ARE COMBINING WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPS IN THE 2-4C RANGE TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THE
NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS EARLY THIS MORNING. BANDS OVER THE WEST
EARLIER LAST NIGHT WERE VERY LIMITED ON SATELLITE...DUE
TO THE DRIER LOW LEVEL UPSTREAM AIR SEEM ON THE 00Z KINL SOUNDING.
THE SOUNDING AND IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING STARTING TO SHOW SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH HAS HELPED
INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT ON SATELLITE. IN ADDITION...WITH WINDS
STARTING TO BACK TO THE WEST AT H850...STARTING TO SEE SOME SHIFT
TO THE EAST WITH THE CLOUD BANDS ON SATELLITE AND ALSO WITH THE
STRONGER BAND NEAR DEERTON. IN ADDITION TO THE BAND SEEN ON RADAR
NEAR DEERTON...THERE ARE HINTS ON BOTH THE KMQT AND CANADIAN RADAR
OF A STRONGER BAND AFFECTING LOCATIONS FROM JUST EAST OF GRAND
MARAIS TO NEAR NEWBERRY. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH CLOUD TEMPS
OF -30C ON GOES/MODIS IR IMAGERY.

WITH THE COLD H850 TEMPS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE. THE LINGERING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY
AND ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL
TRANSITION THE WINDS AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THE LAKE EFFECT WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WITH THIS
BACKING WIND FIELD...EXPECT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LAKE EFFECT
BANDS TO SEE THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND A STRONGER WNW-ESE
ORIENTATED BAND SETTING UP NEAR MUNISING AND THEN THROUGH NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT AND TOWARDS SENEY. THE OTHER TWO BANDS THAT ARE HINTED
AT ON RADAR/SATELLITE WILL ALSO SHIFT TO A SIMILAR SETUP THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WILL TIME OUT WELL WITH
THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FROM JUST AFTER DAYBREAK
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE WITH
LAKE INDUCED EQL RISING TO 8-10KFT. THE LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THE CLOUD ABOVE THE DGZ...SO DON/T EXPECT DENDRITES AND EXPECT
THE SNOW RATIOS TO BE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE THE TRADITIONAL 20-1
VALUES FOR LAKE EFFECT. ALSO EXPECT THERE TO BE AN UPTICK IN THE
LIMITED SNOWFALL THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH
THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THE SHORTER FETCH AND LOWER INVERSION
HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP THINGS LIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER BAND OF SNOW BETWEEN THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS AND
MASS CITY TODAY WITH THE INCREASED CONVERGENCE. DUE TO THIS EXPECTED
INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE...WILL LEAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN
PLACE EVEN THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL THUS FAR HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN LAKE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
THE SNOW TO TRANSITION BACK TO A NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT ...WITH
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THE LAST 6-12HRS. THIS WILL JUST PRODUCE LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT OVER THE WEST AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVER THE
EAST. THEN AS WINDS BACK AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM...EXPECT THE MULTI-BAND LAKE EFFECT TO SLIDE TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR THE CLIPPER...THE FAR WESTERN CWA WILL COME UNDER THE
RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER JET AND STRONG H850-700 WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A
H850 TROUGH STRETCHING FROM ALBERTA THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN AT
12Z FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT LOCATION
OF THE BEST WAA AND MOISTURE AS IT/S NEARING THE CWA TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THUS...WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING
TOWARDS HIGH END CHANCE VALUES OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR
KIWD FROM 09-12Z.

TEMPERATURES ARE ONE OF THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT STORIES. HIGHS TODAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE WEST...AND TO
THE LOW-MID TEENS OVER THE EAST WITH THE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. IF
OUR GOING HIGH FORECAST OF 8 IS CORRECT FOR OUR OFFICE...ALTHOUGH WE
DID HIT 9 JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE THE FIRST SUB 10 DEGREE
HIGH TEMPERATURE SINCE JANUARY 20 2012. THAT WAS THE ONLY SUB 10
DEGREE HIGH LAST WINTER SEASON AND WAS THE CASE FOR MANY WESTERN CWA
SITES. IN ADDITION...IF THE HIGH OF 7 IS CORRECT FOR KCMX...THAT
WILL BE THEIR COLDEST HIGH SINCE FEBRUARY 11 2011. WITH THE COLD
DAY TODAY...TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY COLD...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE OR
BELOW ZERO. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
SHIFTING NORTHEAST AND THE HIGH CLOUDS COMING FROM THE
CLIPPER...COULD SEE SOME VALUES APPROACHING -10F OVER THE INTERIOR
CENTRAL CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING FRI MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A
CLIPPER TYPE LOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO -2C ALONG WI BORDER BY
FRI EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BRIEF PERIOD /2-4 HR/ OF
MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. NAM HAS HEAVIEST PCPN
DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH AND WEST COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT GIVEN THAT
THE BEST WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS UPPER
MI FRI MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...TEND TO LIKE THE GFS IDEA OF THE
MODERATE PCPN MOVING RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE SREF AND REG GEM SUGGEST. THE GFS AND SREF MEAN SUGGEST
AROUND 0.15 INCH OF PCPN FRI /PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER/...MUCH OF WHICH WILL
OCCUR IN A SEVERAL HOUR BURST DURING THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILE IN THE BEING NEARLY ISOTHERMAL AROUND -13C IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...AM THINKING THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE CLOSE TO 25:1.
SO...A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WOULD NOT BE
SURPISING FRIDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO RAISE POPS TO THE
CATEGORICAL CATEGORY FOR THE REGION FRI. THE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH FRI
AFTN AS THE BEST WARM ADVECTION MOVES N OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST
THERMAL GRADIENT STAYS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A
MIXTURE FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER FRI AFTN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS BEST
MOISTURE STAYS N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE CLOUD LAYER STAYS
ABOVE -10C. BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE
WI BORDER AND LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EVEN BE
TOUGHER TO COME BY...BUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS A CHANCE.

THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
BEING FASTEST AND FURTHER SOUTH. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. BEST MOISTURE
STAYS LOCKED NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL KEEP THE SNOW ON
THE LIGHT SIDE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW WILL LIKELY PICK UP BRIEFLY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD SATURDAY AFTN. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS CLIPPER IS THAT IT
WILL OPEN THE GATES FOR THE ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -23C ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO DEVELOP IN EARNEST
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT /AND MOST
LIKELY THROUGH MID WEEK/. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN PBL WIND
DIRECTIONS SAT NIGHT AS THE NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST A MORE N-NW WIND
DIRECTION DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE UPPER
LAKES. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT SNOW WILL AFFECT EASTERN MARQUETTE
COUNTY MORE SO THAN THE MORE NW PBL FLOW FROM THE GFS. WITH THE
EXTREME COLD AIR ALOFT...TEND TO BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE A LAKE
INDUCED/ENHANCED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING TO KEEP THE WINDS
MORE NNW. WILL THEREFORE RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY SAT NIGHT ACROSS
MARQUETTE COUNTY...BUT OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
THE REST OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELTS. DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE IN PLACE...COULD SEE HEAVIER SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE MORE TEXTBOOK LAKE EFFECT REGIME TAKES HOLD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

IN THE EXTENDED /SUNDAY-NEXT WEDNESDAY/...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
PLANNED TO THE GOING FORECAST. WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT...IT WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD
AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN BELOW -20C THROUGH THE PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
SOME PLACES FAVORED BY NW FLOW WILL LIKELY SEE CONSIDERABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION NEXT WEEK. FLOW MAY GRADUALLY TURN MORE W-NW BY TUE/WED
WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS MORE SNOW INTO THE KEWEENAW. THE 00Z GFS
SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD AIR MAY RELENT SLIGHTLY BY WED...BUT THE
ECWMF AND GEM ACTUALLY SHOW A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TUE INTO
WED. WILL LIKELY TREND COLDER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE ON WED.
REGARDLESS...THE PERIOD OF COLD FOR SUN-TUE WILL LIKELY BE THE
COLDEST THE AREA HAS SEEN FOR A FEW YEARS WITH SOME INTERIOR WEST
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO SEE HIGHS ABOVE ZERO ON MONDAY. IN
FACT...CIPS ANALOG PROBABILITIES OF SFC TEMPS BELOW -10F EARLY NEXT
WEEK IS GREATER THAN 70 PCT ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND PROBABILITY WIND CHILL VALUES LESS THAN -30F IS ALSO
GREATER THAN 60 PCT. AS DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS SHIFTS...WITH THE LACK
OF SNOW ESPECIALLY INLAND WE COULD SEE SOME PROBLEMS WITH BURST
PIPES ETC.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

KIWD...MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES WILL PREVAIL IN A NW TO W FLOW. MVFR
CIGS COULD SCT OUT THU EVENING.

KCMX...MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS
BY LATE THU MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER NW WINDS KICK UP
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO REDUCE VSBY. EXPECT VSBY TO IMPROVE AGAIN
TO MVFR LATE THU AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS THE AREA.

KSAW...BEST VIS AND CIGS SHOULD BE AT SAW WHERE NW WINDS WILL KEEP
THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AWAY. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS STRONGER WNW WINDS ALLOW LAKE CLOUDS AND
FLURRIES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THU
EVENING AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND BEGIN TO BACK MORE WRLY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30KTS WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE
THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH WINDS
TONIGHT AND THEY WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW 25KTS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVE THROUGH. BEHIND THE
SECOND LOW...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALES TO
35KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KTS WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

WITH THE COLD AIR TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ263>266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 151748 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1148 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2013

.UPDATE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SITS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY CLIP THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 LOOK
ON TRACK...GIVEN MIXING UP TO 925MB...WITH TEMPERATURES THERE OF
AROUND 7 DEGREES BELOW ZERO CELSIUS.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS TAF SITES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH MAY SEE A GUST TO TWO
TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 16Z WEDNESDAY...AS
EASTWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
GUSTS UP TO 28 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME INDICATIONS
OF MVFR CEILINGS BY 21Z WEDNESDAY. LEFT CEILINGS VFR FOR NOW DUE
TO MODEST CONFIDENCE IN ITS DEVELOPMENT.

SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY...BUT
WILL NOT ACCUMULATE OR CAUSE ANY CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

.MARINE...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10Z TO 21Z
WEDNESDAY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN SO ON WEDNESDAY...AS
EASTWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HIGH WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED
TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS WEDNESDAY...GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW. SOME
FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND REMAIN BRISK THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET
ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WINDS...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES
THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY.

PASSING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING BRISK WINDS AND HIGH WAVES TO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING SPRAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2013/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH

GOES SOUNDER SHOWING VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GTLAKES WITH PWAT VALUES BELOW TWO TENTHS INCH.
MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
WEAK SHEAR VORT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH VERY
WEAK...THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCT-BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR A
TIME TODAY...WITH THINNING OF THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN. PARTIAL SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE
UPPER 20S MOST AREAS.

UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY GETS NUDGED EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET SPREADS INTO
NORTHWEST WI AFT MIDNIGHT. SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF APPROACHING
FORCING AND DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS LINGERING THRU LATE TNGT...SO WL
REMOVE SMALL POPS IN FAR NORTHWEST. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHOULD PREVENT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO LEVELS AS COLD
AS THIS MRNG.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH...WITH 850 THERMAL
RIDGE INTO THE CWA MIDDAY...THEN COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN THAT
LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEAD WAVE/WAA COMBO GENERATE LIGHT QPF
ACROSS NRN CWA...GLANCING SHOT WITH BETTER POPS TO THE NORTH. WILL
HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FAR NORTH. THAT EXITS TO THE EAST MIDDAY
OR SO...THEN SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY EVENING. NAM DRY
WITH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF. GUIDANCE POPS QUITE LOW.
MOISTURE PROFILES VARY WITH GFS LOOKING TOO MOIST. NAM SHOWS ONLY
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NO QPF. WILL MENTION FLURRIES FOR
NOW DURING THE EVENING WITHIN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUIET DAY WITH INCREASING NVA AND SURFACE RIDGING WORKING IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF SWATH WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM KEEP PRECIP WELL NORTHWEST.
MAY JUST RIDE WITH THE ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY.
DECENT MODERATION IN 925 TEMPS FRIDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND
REGIME.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THIS AND ALSO MIXED SIGNALS ON PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF POTENT CLIPPERS. 00Z ECMWF SHOWING ONE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SUNDAY NIGHT...BOTH SERVING TO OPEN THE
GATES TO THE ARCTIC INFLUX. A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.
EVENTUALLY WILL BE SEEING SOME 925 TEMPS DOWN IN THE MINUS MID 20S.
MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A VFR PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH PASSING MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY. EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE AGAIN
AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SFC CDFNT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST WI. TAF SITES WILL APPROACH LLWS CRITERIA BY
12Z/16.

MARINE...RECENT MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S BY THE SHORE TO THE LOWER 40S AT THE
EDGE OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MI AND THE WESTERN GTLAKES. BLUSTERY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU
WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE MI SFC TEMPS WILL RESULT IN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 33 KTS
LOOK MORE LIKELY WED MRNG...SO WL UPGRADE GALE WATCH TO A GALE
WARNING AND EXTEND INTO THE MID AFTN. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WL BE
AWAY FROM 2 TO 5 MILES FROM SHORE...AND BEYOND. SMALL CRAFT ADVY
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO WED EVE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 150924
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
324 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2013

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUIET DAY WITH INCREASING NVA AND SURFACE RIDGING WORKING IN.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A VFR PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH PASSING MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY. EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE AGAIN
AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SFC CDFNT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST WI. TAF SITES WILL APPROACH LLWS CRITERIA BY
12Z/16.

.MARINE...RECENT MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S BY THE SHORE TO THE LOWER 40S AT THE
EDGE OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MI AND THE WESTERN GTLAKES. BLUSTERY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU
WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE MI SFC TEMPS WILL RESULT IN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 33 KTS
LOOK MORE LIKELY WED MRNG...SO WL UPGRADE GALE WATCH TO A GALE
WARNING AND EXTEND INTO THE MID AFTN. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WL BE
AWAY FROM 2 TO 5 MILES FROM SHORE...AND BEYOND. SMALL CRAFT ADVY
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO WED EVE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXCA62 TJSJ 021431 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1031 AM AST WED JAN 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
INTO NEXT WEEK KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT INCREASING THE
FIRE DANGER.

.DISCUSSION...LATEST BLENDED TPW IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA INDICATE
VERY DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY WITH PWAT
DROPPING LESS THAN AN INCH AND H85 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE
ORDER OF 20-25C. DO NOT SEE ANY CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS TODAY BASED
ON THIS AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FOR TODAY SAVED FOR THE
MONA PASSAGE AND ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO SIG WX NEXT FIVE DAYS.

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS HAVE PEAKED AND ARE NOW ON THEIR WAY DOWN
BUT STILL REMAIN AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS. BY 00Z TONIGHT...SWELL
HEIGHT AND PERIOD SHOULD COME DOWN SUFFICIENTLY TO REDUCE THE RISK
OF SIG BREAKING WAVE ACTION AND RIP CURRENT.

.FIRE WEATHER...FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW IN A LOT OF PLACES
TO POSE A FIRE RISK BASED ON AHPS DEFICITS...KBDI VALUES AND MODIS IMAGERY.
VERY LOW HUMIDITIES AND MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS WILL POSE A FIRE RISK
TODAY. SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THU AND FRI BUT THINGS
DRY OUT AGAIN SAT AND THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WINDS
STRENGTHEN AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DRY OUT FUELS FURTHER.

.CLIMATE...AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT...2012 ENDED AS THE FOURTH
WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 81.6F DEGS. THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE WAS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE OF 76.0F
DEGS. THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD WAS IN 1983 WITH AN AVG TEMP OF
82.4F DEGS. DEC 2012 ALSO ENDED AS THE NINTH WARMEST ON RECORD
WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 79.4F DEGS. THE WARMEST DEC ON RECORD WAS IN
1980 WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 80.7F DEGS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 83 73 / 0 20 30 20
STT 85 74 85 75 / 0 20 20 30

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CULEBRA-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN
JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CARIBBEAN
WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN
USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI
VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

64/64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KCHS 292321
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
621 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2012

...GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS...

.SYNOPSIS...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND
PERSIST IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF HUDSON BAY CANADA WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING...USHERING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR OVER SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ALREADY SEEING SIGNIFICANT
PRESSURE RISES OCCUR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...THE SOUTH
CAROLINA UPSTATE AS WELL AS NORTHERN GEORGIA WHERE A SECONDARY
SURGE OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS INITIATING IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE
TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES
OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL IN TURN EXPEDITE THE CLEARING PROCESS. EARLY
EVENING SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW A RATHER
LARGE CLEARING AREA STEADILY EXPANDING ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS. ADJUSTED THE
SKY FORECAST TO MATCH EXPECTED TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS
FROM AROUND 30 WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S AT THE COAST LOOK
REASONABLE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL
CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING WELL INTO THE 20S BY
EARLY SUNDAY.

LAKE WINDS...EXTENDED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM SUNDAY.
WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 20 KT LATER THIS
EVENING AS A STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE WATERS. WAVES OF 1-2 FT WILL OCCUR...
HIGHEST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LARGE AND PROMINENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
DEEP DRY AIR AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND
CLEAR DAY/NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
RESULTING IN COOL HIGH TEMPS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW 50S. WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE OH VALLEY. AS A RESULT A STRENGTHENING 150
KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE OUR THE
DOORSTEP OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MONDAY TO
BE DRY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO FEATURE A DRY MORNING AND POPS INCREASING INTO
THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO OUR WEST THROUGH
THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK FAIRLY ACTIVE DUE TO A
PLETHORA OF UPPER DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE BROAD EASTERN
UNITED STATES TROUGH. A WEAK FRONT SHOULD REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH NUMEROUS SURFACE WAVES RIDING ALONG IT. WE KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF THURSDAY
NIGHT. COOL...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING YIELDING CLEAR SKIES.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGHEST WITH WINDS
GUSTING 25-30 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THROUGH 06Z. ALTHOUGH WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING...IT APPEARS SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA.

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND INTERACTS WITH THE
RELATIVE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOKS WELL
PLACED...BUT OPTED TO UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM ARE LOCATED. YESTERDAY/S 1KM
MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA INDICATED WATER TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARM FROM THE LOWER-MID 50S AROUND 20 NM TO THE LOWER 70S
BEYOND 40 NM. RUC AND H3R BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FORECAST SUGGEST
WINDS COULD EASILY REACH SOLID GALES OF 30-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT IN THE OUTER HALF OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE ZONES WHERE THE
WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR MORE INTENSE VERTICAL MIXING.
OBSERVATIONS FROM 41004 WERE ALREADY GUSTING NEAR 35 KT AT 29/22Z
SO THINK A GALE WARNING IS CERTAINLY WARRANTED ATTM AS WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER. WILL WORD THE HIGHEST WINDS BEYOND 40 NM IN
BOTH THE GALE WARNING ITSELF AND THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. SEAS
WILL BUILD AS HIGH 9 FT OFFSHORE...BUT WILL ACTUALLY SUBSIDE A
BIT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW INTENSIFIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ELEVATED SEAS AND STRONG NW
WINDS AS THE WATERS ARE CAUGHT IN THE PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING HIGH AND DEPARTING LOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
QUICKLY INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
TO COME DOWN. THINGS WILL THEN BE QUIET THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH
PASSES OVER THE AREA. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT MAY PUSH WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WITH SEAS REACHING 5 FT
OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS BY TUESDAY. A STRONGER SURGE WILL OCCUR LATE
NEXT WEEK WHEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ330-350-352-
354.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ST
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ST
MARINE...ST

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KCHS 282011
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
311 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

...MORE BENEFICIAL RAINS TO FALL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...PUSH OFFSHORE
SATURDAY MORNING AND BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MONDAY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD LATE NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OVERVIEW...MID-AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
BAROCLINIC LEAF EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...1006MB LOW PRESSURE WAS SLOWLY
DEEPENING OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA UNDERNEATH THE SAID BAROCLINIC
LEAF. MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
TAKING PLACE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST--MORE TYPICAL OF A CLASSIC
MILLER TYPE-B SYNOPTIC PATTERN. MARINE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SHOW A COASTAL TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ALONG
THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
FORMING ALONG THE GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO LINK UP WITH THE
COASTAL TROUGH LATER THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR
TONIGHT CENTER AROUND RAIN CHANCES AND PINNING DOWN LOW
TEMPERATURES.

RAIN CHANCES...IT LOOKS TO BE A WET LATE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OPENS
UP AND EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. DEEP LAYERED OMEGA WITHIN A VERY
MOIST COLUMN FEATURING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAINS MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINS SETTING UP
WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COINCIDENT WITH A RIBBON OF
STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS
TO SETUP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...QUITE A BIT OF RAIN WILL
STILL FALL OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT AS HEAVY. IT DOES APPEAR MUCH OF THE
EVENING HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE SURGE OF STRONGEST LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. WILL SHOW POPS ONLY 20-30 PERCENT THROUGH
SUNRISE...INCREASING RAPIDLY TO 80-100 PERCENT AFTER 2-3
AM...HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED...EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS RAIN OVERSPREADS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL
BE LACKING...NAM/GFS AND ECWMF ALL SHOW SHOWALTER VALUES GOING
NEGATIVE AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WHERE FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING IS THE GREATEST. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT ON. GIVEN THE ELEVATED WIND
FIELDS ALOFT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT DO
FORM COULD BRING SOME BRIEF/GUSTY WINDS NEAR 40 MPH.

TEMPERATURES...PINNING DOWN LOW TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TONIGHT. SATELLITE
SHOWS SOME CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS WILL LIKELY LINGER...COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS DROP OFF.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO STEADY OUT AND EVEN
RISE BY LATE EVENING AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH. LOWS LOOKS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S INLAND WITH LOWER-MID 50S COAST. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS
THAT AFTER RISING OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL THEN LIKELY FALL
SOME AS RAIN BEGINS TO FALL. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR ALL OF THIS
IN THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...HOWEVER ADJUSTMENTS--SOME
POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT--MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING ONCE CLOUDS
AND THERMAL TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DEEPENING AND TRACKING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND COASTLINES. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING QUICKLY
BEHIND THE LOW AND ACCUMULATING RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING BY MID
MORNING ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER NEAR THE COAST. A
WARMING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL MEAN BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. IT WILL BE
CLEAR...BRISK AND CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
MOVES INTO THE AREA. MANY INLAND LOCALES SHOULD HIT THE FREEZING
MARK BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUN BUT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE COLD START
AND LINGERING CHILLY AIRMASS. SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH MANY INLAND LOCALES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. MONDAY WILL BE MILDER WITH TEMPERATURES
GETTING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO COASTAL AREAS.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL PICK UP ON LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND AN ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FAVOR A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH SEVERAL
PERTURBATIONS RIPPLING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES INEVITABLY ABOUND...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY AND DRIFT OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY. THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES WILL LIFT FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WE GENERALLY HAVE SOLID CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING EARLY
SATURDAY. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH A 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET INITIATING LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR /LLWS/ AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 08-09Z. THE RISK FOR LLWS
WILL LINGER UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE ROUGHLY 14-15Z. A WELL DEFINED
RAIN BAND WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH RAIN REACHING THE
TERMINALS AS EARLY AS 09Z. LIMITED CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR FOR NOW
GIVEN THE SPACIAL/TEMPORAL UNKNOWNS THIS FAR OUT...BUT IFR
CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. EXPECT RAPID CLEARING TO
ENSUE ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES
TAKE HOLD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS
TODAY...BUT HAVE RECENTLY BECOME MORE SOLIDLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS ALONG
THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY AND RAPIDLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
LINKS UP WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH THE MARINE AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL JETTING BECOMES
QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 950MB WINDS REACHING 50 KT BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY...WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL LIMIT MIXING
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE WARMER WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND. WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
FACT...HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS WATER TEMPERATURE DATA INDICATE THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM FEATURING 70+ DEGREE WATER
TEMPERATURES IMPINGES IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE ZONE TO WITHIN
45-50 NM FROM SHORE. EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY MORE VIGOROUS MIXING TO
OCCUR IN THIS AREA WITH DATA SUPPORTING MARGINAL GALES. GIVEN
THESE MORE FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL ONLY AFFECT ABOUT 10 NM
OF THE MUCH LARGER ZONE...WILL LIMIT CONDITIONS TO JUST BELOW GALE
FORCE FOR NOW. WILL CALL FOR WINDS 20-25 KT...EXCEPT 25-30 KT
BEYOND 40 NM. WW4 OUTPUT LOOKS A BIT HIGH WITH THE GFS BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS NOT TAKING THE POOR MIXING PROFILES INTO ACCOUNT.
EXPECT SEAS TO MAX OUT 3-5 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER
OR JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH LATER SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT LEAST OVER THE OUTER
WATERS BEYOND 20 NM...POSSIBLY REACHING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED/GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT
DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL JET. EXPECT SOLID
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OFFSHORE WITH EVEN A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. ADVISORIES MAY END UP BEING NEEDED FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AS WELL. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY HEADLINES THROUGH THEN.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR AMZ374.

ST/RJB

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KGSP 221949
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 PM EST SAT DEC 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL
SETTLE IN ON FRIDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM...TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MTNS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE MORE
THAN EXPECTED...WITH VALUES COMMON IN THE 50S EAST OF THE MTNS.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...RESULTING IN RH
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO L20S. I WILL KEEP A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT FOR THE NC PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND EAST FACING SLOPES
UNTIL 6 PM.

RECENT GOES...AND ONE MODIS...VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED A
THIN SNOWPACK ACROSS THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NC MTNS. AREA
WEB CAMS THAT INSOLATION HAS MELTED THE SNOW ON ROADS...PARKING
LOTS...AND SIDEWALKS. CLEAR SKY COVER...DECREASING WINDS...AND A DRY
AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY COOLING AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...H85
TEMPS RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING A WEAK INVERSE LAPSE
RATES. BY MORNING...TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM THE L20S WITHIN THE
MTNS VALLEYS TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE RIDGES...FOOTHILLS...AND
PIEDMONT. THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHES OF
BLACK ICE WHERE MELT WATER REMAINS ON THE ROAD. I WILL ISSUE A SPS
TO HIGHLIGHT THE SLICK CONDITIONS FOR THE AREAS WITH SNOW COVER.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE ARKLATX
REGION...SUPPORTING RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
MILD LLVL THICKNESSES AND MORNING INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN
STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNRISE. A BLEND OF MOS
INDICATES THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 50S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO U50S EAST. DEWPOINTS MAY RISE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SW WINDS...BUT RH VALUES MAY REMAIN AROUND
CRITICAL VALUES DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST WILL FEATURE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATING FROM THE
ARKLATX LOW.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE IN
THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL LIFT
WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE REGION WILL BE UNDER STRONG
LLVL WARM ADVECTION. THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND UKMET ALL HAVE
WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAIN AMOUNTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
CHRISTMAS EVE. THE NAM IS A LITTLE DRIER...THOUGH THE SREF ALSO HAS
CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH OF I-40. I/VE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH AN AREA OF
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SRN ESCARPMENT OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS
IS AN INCREASE FROM WHAT WE HAD BEFORE...BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
I/D IMAGINE IT/S STILL A LITTLE TOO LOW. THERE MAY BE SOME COOL AND
DRY AIR TRAPPED IN THE NC MTN VALLEYS AT THE START OF THE PCPN EVENT
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARM H8 TEMPS AND SKIES CLOUDING UP EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING...I DON/T SEE WET-BULBS BEING LOW ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THAN RAIN ON MONDAY. THE MAV MOS IS COOLER ON MONDAY OWING TO
THE HEAVIER PCPN IN THAT MODEL...AND THAT/S WHAT I USED IN THE
GRIDS...ALBEIT WITH A FEW TWEAKS.

THE SFC FRONT IS LIKELY TO HANG UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. I/M NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLEARING WE/LL ACTUALLY
SEE...ESPECIALLY DOWN ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND NE GA. I DID GO WITH A
PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS CLEARING IS NOT HIGH. ON TUESDAY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM LOOKS TOO WEAK
WITH THIS FEATURE AND I/VE SIDED WITH THE GFS/ECWMF WHICH ARE ABOUT
10 MB DEEPER WITH THE SFC LOW THAN THE NAM. PARTIAL THICKNESSES ARE
MUCH TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN. THERE IS SOME MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS THAT CROSSES THE FA WELL AHEAD OF THE WAVE TUE AFTN.
THIS IS CAUSING QUITE A SPREAD IN THE ONSET TIME OF PCPN IN THE
MODELS. I/VE GONE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN SOME OF THE NEIGHBORS...BUT
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WE CAN EEK OUT
A DRY CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH THIS PATTERN. EVEN WITH A MILD
AIRMASS...THE CLOUDY SKIES WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS AROUND NORMAL LEVEL
FOR THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE EVOLUTION OF A MILLER B SCENARIO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEGINNING CHRISTMAS EVENING. WITH THE PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW TRACKING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND SYNOPTIC SURFACE
HIGH IN AN UNFAVORABLE LOCATION FOR CLASSICAL COLD AIR DAMMING...
WINTRY WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWERING
THICKNESS VALUES IN RESPONSE TO IN SITU CAD DEVELOPMENT TUE NIGHT.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT TEMPS COULD DROP TO/BELOW
FREEZING ALONG THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT AFTER PRECIP ONSET...AND
BECOME LOCKED THERE FOR A FEW HOURS...AS IS SOMETIMES THE CASE WITH
IN SITU EVENTS. A MENTION OF -FZRA WILL BE CARRIED ACROSS A VERY
SMALL PORTION OF THE CWFA WED MORNING (MAINLY THE NRN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS). PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS THE AREA BY WED
EVENING...THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE TENN BORDER
COUNTIES...WHERE SCT/NUMEROUS ACCUMULATING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

A TRANSITION TO A MORE PHASED/HIGH AMPLIFIED FLOW IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A MAJOR/PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN AFFECTING THE EASTERN STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND...AND SMALL POPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED ACROSS OUR AREA BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THERMAL PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...IF LIGHT PRECIP BEGINS AS EARLY AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE 18Z TAFS. THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT A LEE TROF WAS LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT OF THE
CAROLINAS. THE TROF WILL LIKELY SUPPORT WSW WINDS EAST OF THE
MTNS...WITH NNW WINDS AT KAVL AND KHKY. KHKY SHOULD BACK TO WSW
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD FAVOR VALUES
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. KAVL MAY REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL WINDS DECOUPLE
TOWARD SUNSET. OVERNIGHT...A BROAD PRESSURE FIELD IS EXPECTED WITHIN
THE LEE TROF...WINDS WILL BECOME AND REMAIN LIGHT TO VARIABLE TO
CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
EXPECTED SUNDAY...SPEEDS WILL FAVOR VALUES NEAR 5 KTS. A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...AN ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE NEXT
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A QUICK SHOT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP ON MONDAY.
THEN ANOTHER...STRONGER...SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

.FIRE WEATHER...
OWING TO THE LACK OF WIND ON SUNDAY WE ARE NOT PLANNING TO ISSUE A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ANY PARTS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS OR
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. AND IN THE CASE OF NE GA...WHERE A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT CAN BE ISSUED JUST BASED ON MINIMUM RH AND FUELS...THE RH
VALUES ARE NOT PREDICTED TO FALL TO CRITICAL LEVELS.

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...NED
FIRE WEATHER...MCAVOY

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 181050
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
450 AM CST TUE DEC 18 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE H5 RIDGE WILL EXIT THE
REGION TODAY AS THE NEXT MIDLEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL KICK OFF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE PANHANDLE WITH
WINDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INCREASING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...PEAKING AROUND 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER FOR TODAY...A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS
ALOFT...AND WITH WARM H85 TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OFF OF THE SIERRA MADRE...WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ONCE
MORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION REMAINS FOR TONIGHT WITH ANY FOG
ISSUES. PROFILE SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT THE
SURFACE WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR ALOFT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY IN THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 35-40 MPH WITH SOME MIXING MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT. AM THINKING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR LATE IN THE NIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH ALSO BEGINS TO
INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE...LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING CAP. ANY PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY END BY
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CAPPING. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WILL BE IN
STORE FOR WEDNESDAY. AS FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT H85 WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH AND POSSIBLY EVEN
EXCEED RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.

.MARINE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOP SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY IN COMBINATION WITH THE
DRY AIRMASS ALOFT AS WELL AS MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS FROM
BEEVILLE TO REFUGIO WESTWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC SOLNS PROG AN UPPER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS/TX
WED NGT/EARLY THU. IN RESPONSE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACRS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. ANTICIPATE
LIMITED MSTR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT (GFS DETERMINISTIC) AND WILL
NOT FCST PCPN (GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PCPN.) EXPECT AT LEAST SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT. THE 00Z
TUE CYCLE OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF PROG 30-35KT/30KT/25KT MAX SFC WIND
OVER THE WATERS EARLY THU. THE NAM 40-50KT 925MB WIND/NEAR DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS (LAPSE RATES NOT
UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE AT LEAST 75F SST VALUES OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS PER MODIS SST COMPOSITE) ADDS CREDENCE TO THE 30-35KT SOLN.
YET WILL FCST 25-30KT SUSTAINED WIND BASED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SFC WIND. WIND/RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINATIONS SUGGEST THAT A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTN. NEAR FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE PSBL OVR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY OWING TO EXPECTATION OF LIMITED
CLOUD COVER/LGT WIND/VERY LOW SFC DEW POINTS. DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT
DEPICTS A TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL/WEAK AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN
OVER THE CONUS BY SATURDAY...CONDUSIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN
FLOW/WARMING TREND. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS PROG ISENTROPIC LIFT/
DECREASING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE CWA/MSA DURING
THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD...SUGGESTIVE OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS...NOT YET PCPN. (THE ECMWF/GFS PROG THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM
TO APPROACH THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTION
JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.)

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 85 66 86 54 61 / 0 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 80 61 80 47 59 / 0 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 86 66 92 51 62 / 0 10 10 10 10
ALICE 86 66 87 52 63 / 0 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 77 67 78 52 59 / 0 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 86 61 86 45 61 / 0 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 84 67 86 54 63 / 0 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 78 68 79 55 60 / 0 10 10 10 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

CB/85...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 161035
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
435 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. A 500MB TROUGH
EXITING NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST AND BE THE DRIVING
FORCE TO FINALLY PUSH THE STALLED BOUNDARY OFFSHORE BY LATE THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL APPROACH
THE REGION AND COMBINE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE...HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST WEST OF HIGHWAY 16 WHERE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR FIRST. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LIMITED AS MOISTURE AND BEST UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT APPEAR TO LINE UP JUST RIGHT. WITH THAT
SAID...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST OUT OVER
THE WATERS BY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS SKIES CLEAR MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE ECMWF/GFS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE WEST COAST
TUESDAY...MOVING ACRS THE SRN ROCKIES/SWRN CONUS WEDNESDAY...ACRS
THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE THURSDAY/
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING ONSHORE MOMENTUM
TUESDAY (SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS) AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THURSDAY OVER THE
CWA/MSA. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW NOTWITHSTANDING IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...MSTR IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED (CONSISTENT WITH GFS AND
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES/SOUNDING PROFILES) AND THUS NO PCPN
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE CWA...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AFTN...ESP OVER
THE ERN CWA. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE... ANTICIPATE SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (GFS 1000-500MB 546DAM THICKNESS
INTO CNTRL TX BY EARLY THURSDAY/RECENT SST VALUES ABOVE 70F OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BASED ON 2-KM MODIS SST COMPOSITE.) EXPECT MIN TEMP
READINGS IN THE 30S FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO COMMENCE
SATURDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 60 80 48 79 / 40 20 10 10 0
VICTORIA 79 52 77 43 77 / 60 20 10 10 0
LAREDO 77 54 77 49 80 / 10 0 0 10 0
ALICE 81 58 80 47 81 / 30 10 10 10 0
ROCKPORT 76 60 75 52 72 / 60 20 10 10 0
COTULLA 75 48 76 42 80 / 10 0 0 10 0
KINGSVILLE 81 59 80 49 80 / 30 20 10 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 74 63 75 54 73 / 40 20 10 10 0

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

RG/82...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 151016
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
416 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS
EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. TODAY...IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF TX...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER SRN TX AND STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ANTICIPATED
THIS AFTN OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA OWING TO INSTABILITY/SUFFICIENT
MSTR/PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY. TONIGHT...BASED ON ISENTROPIC
LIFT/LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT THE 300K LEVEL (GFS
DETERMINISTIC)...WL FCST ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE ERN
CWA/MSA. FURTHER...THE NAM DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE ERN CWA. THIS
COMBINED WITH LGT SFC WIND MAY RESULT IN FOG. SUNDAY...THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY/MSTR SUGGESTS
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION YET CONFINED TO THE ERN CWA/MSA. NAM
DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG/SEVERE SUNDAY AFTN (BASED ON LOW BRN VALUES.)

.MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL
WATERS OWING TO SEAS NEAR 7FT. (SFC WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SCEC
CATEGORY TODAY.) ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ANTICIPATED OVER THE WATERS
DRG MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NAM DETERMINISTIC DEW POINTS MAY EXCEED
SST VALUES OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS (MODIS SST COMPOSITE)
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AREAS OF SEA FOG TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. YET
UNSURE WHETHER VISIBILITIES WILL APPROACH DENSE FOG ADVSY
CRITERION.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS LATE TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
SURFACE LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE WEST COAST
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND HELP BRING A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND BRING A STRONGER FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING.
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AS ENOUGH RETURN MOISTURE LOOKS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MUCH DIRER AND COOLER AIR
WILL FILTER DOWN INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 68 82 56 79 / 30 20 30 30 10
VICTORIA 78 64 79 49 75 / 30 30 50 20 10
LAREDO 80 64 81 54 77 / 10 10 10 10 0
ALICE 81 65 83 54 78 / 20 20 30 20 10
ROCKPORT 73 67 76 57 75 / 30 20 40 30 10
COTULLA 78 62 79 48 77 / 20 10 10 10 0
KINGSVILLE 81 65 83 54 78 / 20 20 30 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 74 69 76 60 75 / 30 20 30 30 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

WC/87...SHORT TERM
RG/82...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 032159
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
359 PM CST MON DEC 3 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...OVERALL DRY COLUMN OF
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH PWATS LESS THAN 1 INCH...VIA THE GOES
SOUNDER IMAGERY AS A S/SW FLOW AT H85 CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THE
MIDLEVELS. MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED AT THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S. WITH CLEARING SKIES...THE REST OF THE EVENING SHOULD
BE QUIET. THE MAIN DISCUSSION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE FOG
POSSIBILITY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE AREA
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A
MOIST SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...WITH
POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS. DID ADD IN
MENTION OF SEA FOG FOR THE NORTHERN BAYS WERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD
REACH WATERS TEMPS SIMILAR AS THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW A BULK OF
MOISTURE TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...OVER THE WATERS...TUESDAY
MORNING. AND WITH INSTABILITY AND DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AM
STILL EXPECTING STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY AREAS EAST OF PORT ARANSAS. DIDBACK OFF ON
GOING FURTHER INLAND WITH POPS AS DEEP MOISTURE DOES NOT EXIST
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO THE AFTERNOON...H85 WINDS CONTINUE
TO COME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CREATING A CAP. BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...MIDLEVEL WINDS WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH WITH
MOISTURE POOLING SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING
THE PWATS TO NEAR 1.4 INCHES. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER
THE CWA...REACHING AND STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUES...AND EXITING THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WED. WITH THE
CAPPING...THINKING THAT MOST DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED...AND AM
EXPECTING THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. A
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
SHOWERS ENDING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
PROG A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...CONDUCIVE TO
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW/INCREASING NEAR SFC MSTR. GFS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT SIGNIFICANT NEAR SFC MSTR WL RETURN TO THE CWA/MSA BY
EARLY THURSDAY. ANTICIAPTE AT LEAST PATCHY RADIATION FOG OVER THE
CWA DRG THE APROXIMATELY 06-14Z PERIOD COMMENCING FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE GFS/ECMWF PROG SFC DEW POINTS TO APPROACH/EXCEED SST
VALUES (2-KM MODIS SST COMPOSITE) OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS FOR
SAT/SUN. WL INTRODUCE PATCHY ADVECTION FOG FOR THE (ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN) BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS FOR SAT/SUN. GFS PWAT VALUES OVER
THE CWA INCREASE TO NEAR 1.2IN BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
GFS MSTR/CIN/CAPE PATTERNS SUGGEST NOCTURAL ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY YET NO SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE
CWA. AFTER FRIDAY...THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS DIVERGE WITH REGARD TO
THE TIMING/PSN OF THE TRANSITION TO A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN.
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE. WL DEFER TO THE ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH
MOVES A COLD FRONT ACRS THE CWA MONDAY. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT YET RESRICTED TO THE ERN CWA/MSA. FURTHER...FCSTG MUCH
COOLER HIGH TEMPS MONDAY THAN THE GFS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 65 83 61 78 59 / 10 20 20 10 10
VICTORIA 63 81 57 76 56 / 10 30 20 10 10
LAREDO 65 85 63 78 59 / 10 10 20 10 10
ALICE 63 85 60 79 58 / 10 20 20 10 10
ROCKPORT 67 77 61 74 62 / 10 20 20 10 10
COTULLA 63 83 59 76 55 / 10 10 20 10 10
KINGSVILLE 63 84 60 78 59 / 10 20 20 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 70 80 62 73 62 / 10 20 20 10 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

CB/85...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 012151
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
351 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
MAINLY THE CNTRL CWA. THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED AS QUASI-ZONAL (WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES MOVG
ACRS THE TX REGION.) THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE CWA/MSA (IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES.) ANTICIPATE PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WHEN
CONSIDERING THE NAM SOUNDINGS. DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS SUGGEST DRIER
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND THUS WL NOT INTRODUCE PCPN. HWR...GREATER
MSTR EXPECTED TO ADVECT OVER THE MSA SUNDAY NIGHT SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLD NOCTURAL SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AFTER 06Z MONDAY. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT OVER
THE CWA.

.MARINE...NAM 0-1KM LAPSE RATES/925MB WIND/MODIS 2-KM SST COMPOSITE
SUGGEST THAT SFC WIND COULD APPROACH SCA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. YET WILL RESTRICT TO SCEC OWING TO UNCERTAINTY/
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN BEST CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA INCLUDING
THE GULF WATERS. DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR STREAMER SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
GULF WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BEND
COUNTIES. PATCHY FOG THAT MORNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A S/SW FLOW
AT H85 WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER AND WARMER AIR TO THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN REACH ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. DID ADD IN AN ADDITIONAL NIGHT FOR PATCHY FOG FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AS MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED AT THE SURFACE WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REACH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT. WITH MOISTURE DEPTH
LIMITED TO THE SURFACE...AM ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP...WITH MOST DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE HIGH
QUICKLY PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION. DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ATTRIBUTE TO LOW- AND MID-LEVELS WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN...BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK CONCERNING
WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE COLD FRONT. THE PAST RUN
FINALLY HAD THE EUROPEAN PICKING UP ON A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS WHAT PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAD BEEN DOING. HOWEVER FOR
THE LATEST RUN...THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE FRONT WHILE THE
EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO BRING THE FRONT THROUGH. FOR NOW...WITH BOTH
MODELS SHOWING AT A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDLEVELS WHICH SHOULD
BE BETTER FOR PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD
THE EUROPEAN FOR THE EXTENDED WITH THE FRONT ENTERING THE REGION
SATURDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 65 82 64 83 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 64 80 61 83 62 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 69 84 63 85 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 64 84 61 84 63 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 66 77 65 77 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 65 83 60 83 61 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 65 84 63 84 63 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 67 77 67 79 66 / 10 10 10 10 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

WC/87...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 302139
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
339 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...ISOLD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED DRG THE 00-03Z SAT OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND
CWA OWING TO WEAK SEA BREEZE/LIMITED CIN/SUFFICIENT CAPE/RECENT
TREND IN PCPN. CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC THAT A QUASI-
ZONAL UPPER PATTERN (500MB) WILL OCCUR DRG THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...
ANTICIPATE SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OWING
TO SIGNIFICANT NAM 0-1KM LAPSE RATES/20KT 925MB WIND. (SCEC NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHEN CONSIDERING COOLER SST
VALUES PER 2-KM MODIS SST COMPOSITE.) ANTICIPATE NOCTURAL ISOLD
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL COUNTIES TONIGHT
(CONSISTENT WITH LOCAL WRF-ARW/GFS AND REASONABLE CONSIDERING
PWAT VALUES/NAM CIN AND CAPE PATTERNS.) NAM/GFS TIME-HEIGHT/
SOUNDING/PWAT OUTPUT INDICATE SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS SAT. YET...
WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SAT AFTN OVER THE ERN CWA (CONSISTENT WITH
GFS OUTPUT.)

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AN OVERALL QUIET START TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AS A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.
AT THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AND BRING SCT/BKN CLOUDS
TO THE REGION AND AN INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 80S FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THE CANADIAN IS THE STRONGEST WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE
AND ONLY BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SOUTH TEXAS. WILL FOLLOW THE
LATTER SOLUTIONS AND BRING JUST A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WOULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF IT EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WILL ONLY BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH
ONSHORE FLOW BACK FOR THURSDAY. COULD SEE OUR NEXT FRONT TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 67 81 65 83 63 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 63 79 60 82 59 / 20 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 67 84 66 83 64 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 66 84 63 85 60 / 20 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 66 77 66 80 64 / 20 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 63 82 63 82 60 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 66 83 63 84 60 / 20 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 68 77 68 78 65 / 10 10 10 10 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

WC/87...SHORT TERM
RG/82...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 292126
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
326 PM CST THU NOV 29 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS/DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ALSO...A CLOUD DECK AROUND
4-5KFT REMAINS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT MOISTENING TREND TO CONTINUE AND
WILL MAINTAIN A SIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST AND
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. ONCE THE 500MB DISTURBANCES PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THUS...RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED FRIDAY
NIGHT. BACK TO TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG ACROSS
INLAND AREAS WITH THE INCREASING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT COOL AS MUCH TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND
THUS...A SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...GREATER MSTR EXPECTED
SATURDAY (AS OPPOSED TO TODAY) MAY RESULT IN ISOLD NOCTURNAL COASTAL
AND DIURNAL SEA BREEZE (BAYS/NEARSHORE SST VALUES 68-70F PER 2-KM
MODIS SST COMPOSITE VERSUS 80S EXPECTED OVER LAND NEAR THE COAST)
CONVECTION SAT. THE GFS/ECMWF PROG A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN
EXCEPT FOR A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACRS THE NRN CONUS
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY TO FORCE A COLD FRONT
INTO TX. HWR...THE ECMWF/GFS PROG A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE (SOUTH OF
THE MAIN TROUGH) TO MOVE ACRS TX/SRN PLAINS LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY
(THIS FEATURE STILL APPEARS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.) YET...THE
CORRESPONDING SFC BOUNDARY WL LIKELY STALL NORTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
AFTN (IN CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT.) NEVERTHELESS...
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FRONT IN ADDITION TO INCREASING
MSTR/INSTABILITY...WL FCST ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA FOR
TUESDAY. WL NOT FCST PCPN WED CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE. WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 63 82 64 83 64 / 20 20 10 20 10
VICTORIA 57 79 60 81 59 / 20 20 20 20 10
LAREDO 63 83 66 83 66 / 10 10 0 10 10
ALICE 61 83 62 85 63 / 10 10 10 20 10
ROCKPORT 64 77 64 79 64 / 20 20 20 20 10
COTULLA 60 82 62 82 62 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 61 82 62 83 62 / 20 10 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 66 77 66 79 65 / 20 20 10 10 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

RG/82...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 252129
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
329 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BIGGEST IMPACT FROM
AREA WEATHER WILL BE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT
CLOUDS TODAY SHOULD MIX OUT THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. SW FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE
MAY AID IN PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. A
WEAK WARM FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTH ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE COASTAL WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE INFLUX TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 60S ACROSS
EASTERN HALF OF CWA AND APPROACH 60S ALONG RIO GRANDE. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS IF SKIES CLEAR OUT ENOUGH
AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. PROGD SOUNDINGS ARE NOT OVERLY CONDUCIVE
FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY
FOG FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED PATCHY SEA FOG FOR
NORTHERN BAYS AND WATERWAYS AS SHELF WATERS HAVE COOLED TO 66 TO
68 DEGREES F /PER MODIS IMAGERY/ AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS...PATCHY SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEA FOG IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...HOWEVER. SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE MARINE
AREAS TONIGHT BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY AS WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE
SKIRTS THROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS /MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY BECOME THICK
IN THE AFTERNOON/. WARM H9 TO H8 TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL MIX TO THE
SURFACE DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS RESULTING IN MAX
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLE APPROACHING 90 ACROSS SOME
INLAND LOCATIONS IF WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE. A SURFACE
TROUGH/QUASIDRYLINE MAY MOVE EAST OUT OF MEXICO DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SAID LOCALE.

BY LATE IN THE DAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME DPVA WILL BE INCREASING DUE TO A
STRONG VORT MAX IN THE H5 LAYER MOVING EAST AS A S/W TROUGH. H25
LEVEL PLACES CWA IN FAVORABLE EXIT REGION OF A 90 KT JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH. INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNSET.
THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE PROG TO
EXIST. HAVE INCREASED POPS NEARLY AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY NIGHT. CAPE
VALUES ARE PROG TO BE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO
-8 AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR VALUES MAY ALLOW FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. ACTIVITY
SHOULD END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH. FRONT SHOULD ENTER NORTHERN ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE. ONLY CAVEAT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
WOULD BE IF LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MORE SWRLY RATHER THAN BACKING
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE IMMEDIATE COAST AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY ENDING MUCH OF THE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE TERRESTRIAL AREAS...WITH LINGERING ISOLD TO
SCT PRECIPITATION OVER THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SFC HIGH AND
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S NORTH AND STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 70S SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE CWA. RETURN FLOW WILL QUICKLY RE-ESTABLISH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH INCREASED
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOISTURE IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE
IN CONCERT WITH ATTENDING COASTAL TROUGH...WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 THURSDAY...WITH
MOISTURE AND SFC CONVERGENCE MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED WEST OF HIGHWAY
281 ON WEST SIDE OF COASTAL TROF. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WITH LINGERING COASTAL TROF AND ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 63 85 60 72 50 / 10 10 50 20 10
VICTORIA 61 84 55 68 43 / 10 10 50 10 10
LAREDO 61 89 59 71 52 / 0 10 10 10 0
ALICE 63 87 59 71 47 / 10 10 50 10 0
ROCKPORT 67 82 60 69 51 / 10 10 60 20 10
COTULLA 58 84 54 69 46 / 0 10 10 10 0
KINGSVILLE 62 86 61 72 50 / 10 10 50 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 67 81 63 71 55 / 10 10 60 20 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

HART/79...SHORT TERM
CORDERO/70...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 241031
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
431 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK UPGLIDE LEADING TO LIGHT
RAIN THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION...WITH ADDITIONAL LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. ALL THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND DOWNGLIDE
COMMENCE. A LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SCATTERING OUT
THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. WITH
THE CLOUDS AND CAA...KEPT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...NEARING 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. AS
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...THE TRAPPED MOISTURE MAY HINDER LOWS FROM
DROPPING TOO MUCH OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A BETTER POSSIBILITY OF COOLING OVER THE NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S. DEVELOPING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD RELAX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. GRADUAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL REACH INTO
THE MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
WESTERN BRUSH AS SOUTHWEST H85 FLOW DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH REGARD TO THE DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT
OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACRS THE PLAINS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
QUASI-ZONAL/LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN (IGNORING THE WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE THAT APPEARS IN THE EMCWF/GFS THURSDAY OVER THE TX
REGION AS THE 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLE MEAN BARELY REVEALS IT.) IN
ADVANCE OF THE PLAINS SYSTEM...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW/MSTR EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE FOR NOCTURAL ISOLD SHOWERS
OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AND AFTN ISOLD SHOWERS
OVER THE ERN CWA. FURTHER...INCREASING ONSHORE MOMENTUM ALOFT/NEAR
DRY ADIABATIC 0-1KM LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. (SCA
CONDITIONS PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OWING TO COOLER
NEAR 70F SST VALUES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS BASED ON MODIS 2-KM
SST COMPOSITE.) IN RESPONSE TO THE PLAINS SYSTEM...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. MSTR CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT
IN ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...AT LEAST MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (AT LEAST SCEC WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE). AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL...
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESUME BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO PROG SOMEWHAT
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY. ANTICIPATE
NOCTURAL AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
DIURNAL ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA THURSDAY/FRIDAY. (ANTICIPATE
PREDOMINATELY SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THUNDER FRIDAY AFTN WHEN
CONSIDERING GFS CAPE MAGNITUDES.)

.MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP THIS EARLY
MORNING...WITH THE INCREASED WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MID
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE AREA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 67 50 77 61 79 / 10 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 66 45 75 58 80 / 10 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 69 56 79 57 82 / 10 0 10 10 10
ALICE 68 51 79 59 83 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 67 52 74 64 76 / 10 10 10 20 20
COTULLA 68 49 76 56 81 / 10 0 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 68 50 78 60 83 / 10 10 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 67 56 74 64 76 / 10 10 10 20 20

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O'CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

CB/85...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KGGW 162110
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
210 PM MST FRI NOV 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SEASONALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT EITHER ZONAL OR TURNED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST. AN
UPPER TROUGH NUDGING UP TO THE PAC-NW COAST WILL SEND RAIN INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT A
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EAST WHICH WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER THE
DIVIDE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL REGION ON
SUNDAY...NOT QUITE MAKING IT INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA UNTIL AFTER
SUNDAY.

THE THURSDAY 18Z MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS THE SNOW-PACK TO BE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE CWA. THE ONLY AREA WERE BARE GROUND IS
APPEARING IS SOUTHERN PATCHES OF PETROLEUM AND JORDAN COUNTIES.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODIFIED BY THE ALBEDO
OF THE SNOW.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW UNDERCUTS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WAVE IS DRY. HOWEVER THE MAIN AFFECT
WILL BE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE USUAL COLD AIR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LIMIT FOG FORMATION.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...850MB AND 700MB WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL TWEAK UP THICKNESS HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. THE WARMER START AND PARTIAL CLEARING WILL
NUDGE TMAX A BIT WARMER.

SUNDAY...A LEE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH IT BY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES AGAIN
INCREASE SLIGHTLY. SCT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR CWA WILL FIND ITSELF IN ZONAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE 12Z GFS HAS
BACKED OFF ON QPF BUT THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS CONSISTENCY BRINGING IN
SOME PRECIPITATION TO OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION IN
PLACE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT SOME CLEARING ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS OUR CWA. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE CWA AND WITH CONTINUING SNOW MELT
ANTICIPATE THAT A WARM UP IS IN ORDER. SOME SNOW COVER LINGERING
IN THE NORTH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE. EXPECT HIGHS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THE 40S IN THE NORTH WITH 50S
BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE
HIGHEST 850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. IN
FACT...850MB TEMPS REACH AS HIGH AS 11 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM NEAR SIDNEY TO SCOBEY. EVEN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES APPROACH 10 DEGREES AT 850MB BUT DUE TO SNOW COVER IT WILL
BE HARDER TO WARM UP AS MUCH THERE. SO HAVE KEPT WARMEST HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE MID 50S ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE KEPT NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN THE MID
40S IN AREAS SUCH AS PLENTYWOOD AND POPLAR. MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND WITH A SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE CWA
THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION AND SO HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE HERE WILL
NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING PRECIPITATION PART OF THE
FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE 12Z GFS DGEX AND GEM ALL ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND USHERING IN SOME
ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND
USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE HAVE
COOLED TEMPERATURES SOME THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY DURING THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TRENDS. REGARDLESS...
EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND MEANING ANY COOL DOWN WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED.
MALIAWCO/GILCHRIST

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. A MID AND HIGH LEVEL BKN-OVC CEILING CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT KGDV
AND KSDY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE AROUND SUNSET. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 06 KTS. SOME PATCHY
IFR FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE RIVER BOTTOMS...BUT AT THIS TIME
IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
GILCHRIST/MALIAWCO

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KGGW 160321
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
821 PM MST THU NOV 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH A LITTLE
AND DECREASE THEM TO THE NORTH A LITTLE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE
SHOWING TEMPERATURES ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS
PROBABLY CAUSED BY DIFFERENTIAL SNOW COVER. MODIS SATELLITE SHOWS
THAT MOST OF THE SNOW HAS MELTED IN SOUTHERN ZONES...WHILE SNOW
COVER IS STILL SIGNIFICANT TO THE NORTH.

ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AS SOME LOCAL AREAS HAVE
OBSERVED VISIBILITY BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE. MARTIN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...MAIN FORECAST CHANGE HAS BEEN TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THE VALLEYS BELOW 2500 FEET. THE 12Z
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THE NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG SHALLOW INVERSION HOLDING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...THINK THAT MOST OF THE WARMING WILL RIDE RIGHT OVER
THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR...KEEPING THE COLD AIR TRAPPED AT
THE SURFACE. THUS UPDATED THE FORECAST TO COOL VALLEY
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MILK AND MISSOURI RIVERS. WITH
SNOW COVER IN PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECT
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG...MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TO BECOME FILTERED BY SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE CWA
ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. SINCE CLOUD COVER WILL
NOT BE A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL
REBOUND NICELY AND EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 40 DEGREES IN THE NORTH. THE
12Z NAM BRINGS THE 850MB 8 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM AS FAR NORTH AS
A LINE EXTENDING FROM WINNETT TO CIRCLE. AS A RESULT OF THIS
POSSIBLE WARMING IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME OF THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES EXPERIENCE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
50S...EVEN WITH THE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP SO HAVE KEPT LOWS HIGHER AND FEEL
THAT FOG WILL NOT BE A CONCERN.

ON SATURDAY THE SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE CWA LATE IN THE
DAY SO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO MORE SUNSHINE
AND A HIGH TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT TAKING PLACE BY THIS TIME
AND SOME INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FEEL THAT THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE. MALIAWCO/GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA
UNDER A RIDGE. A PERSISTENT LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SENDS A
PACIFIC STORM AND COLD FRONT NUDGING INTO THE PAC-NW. THE STORM
SENDS A TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE DIVIDE AROUND SUNDAY
EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE BECOMES WEAKENED BY THE TIME IT GETS OVER
THE PRAIRIE. THE GFS AND EC DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN TIMING AND
LOCATION. THE GFS DOES BRING IN A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE GULF LOW ROTATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE PAC-NW
AROUND MID-WEEK. THE GFS AND EC ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH TIMING.
BUT SOMETIME AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THE NEXT FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION TO BRING A BETTER SHOT OF MOISTURE.
WITH THE DROPPING TEMPERATURES THE AREA CAN EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO BEGIN WITH RAIN THAT COULD TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE
WEEKEND. HOLIDAY TRAVEL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE INTERFERED WITH
IF THERE IS A WINTRY MIX.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH
COOL NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES BEGIN NEAR NORMAL THEN TREND WARMER
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AROUND MID-WEEK. THEN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND LOWER AROUND THE WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. MAIN CHANGES WERE MADE TO
UPDATE POPS/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE 12Z
GFS AND EC MODELS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA DOWN
TO THE WASHINGTON OREGON COASTLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL FLOW AROUND THE BASE
OF THIS FEATURE AND INTO WESTERN MONTANA WHERE IT WILL BE RUNG OUT
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME OF THE
MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN MONTANA.

SOME THIS MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ON
SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND MIGHT POSSIBLE MAKE IT TO OUR
SW ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIQUID. EVERYONE ELSE ACROSS
THE CWA WILL JUST SEE CLOUD COVER AS THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES A DRY
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF AND SEEMS TO PUSH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE A BIT FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. DECIDED TO ADD
POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS ALL MODELS ARE
SHOWING DIFFERING LEVELS OF QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN MONTANA.

THERE IS A HINT OF SOMETHING COMING UP DAY 8 AND DAY 8 NIGHT WITH
THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF. THEY ARE ALL HINTING AT THE
UPPER TROUGH BEING PUSHED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE SHALLOW
TROUGH LIKE FEATURE WHEN IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SUB
ZERO 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THE GFS/GEM HAVE THE TROUGH MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AS IT
CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN WYOMING. SO WITH THIS IN MIND I SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AND PUT IN A WINTRY MIX FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. RSMITH

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH ROUGHLY 1000Z THEN FREEZING FOG WILL GENERATE IFR
VISIBILITIES FOR KGGW AND KOLF.

AN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MOISTURE CLOSE TO THE GROUND FROM MELTING SNOW COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL FREEZING FOG LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THEN A
WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING IN CLOUD COVER
BY FRIDAY EVENING...MINIMIZING THE CHANCE FOR FOG.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT SWITCHING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW. GAH/SCT

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 160318
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
918 PM CST THU NOV 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE TO BE REINFORCED SOMEWHAT OVER
THE CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACRS THE PLAINS. DECIDED TO UPGRADE TO SCEC CONDITIONS FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS BASED ON NAM/GFS/LOCAL ARW DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT/NAM 0-1KM LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925MB WIND/2-KM MODIS
SST COMPOSITE. NAM/GFS 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT/CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS/NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRATIFORM
RAINFALL WL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE SRN CWA/MSA AND THUS WL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT PCPN FCST.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST THU NOV 15 2012/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

AVIATION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TERMINAL FORECAST FOR SOUTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED -RA TO KALI AND KCRP
BETWEEN 08Z-12Z (GIVE OR TAKE A FEW HOURS). WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KLRD...MOST LOCATION SHOULD CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH 06Z
BEFORE CLOUD DECK LOWERS SOME. FOR KLRD...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
ARE MORE LIKELY AND HAVE THAT AS PREVAILING AFTER 06Z. WITH ALL
THAT SAID...GENERALLY LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS LIFT AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN TAPPER OFF AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE EAST THEN ENDING AROUND 15Z
OUT WEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST THU NOV 15 2012/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...THE STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO HOLD ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP THIS ALL NIGHT...HOWEVER THE VICTORIA
AREA WILL BE A CHALLENGE ONCE AGAIN AS THE CLEARING LINE MAY PUSH
BACK INTO THAT AREA AS IT DID LAST NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY THERE WITH TEMPS DECREASING A BIT...ALTHOUGH NOT
AS FAR AS LAST NIGHT. THERE IS DEFINITELY THE POTENTIAL THOUGH
THAT THIS AREA CLEARS AND TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S.
NOT GOING TO GO THAT EXTREME THOUGH. THE SECOND ISSUE WITH THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS THE PRECIP POTENTIAL...MAINLY WEST. PRETTY
GOOD UPGLIDE SETS UP ON THE 300K SFC AND EVEN MORE ON THE 295K
SFC...THIS BEING BETWEEN 800 AND 900 MB...LINING UP WITH THE MAIN
MOISTURE REGION. CURRENTLY THOUGH...DPT DEPRESSIONS WEST ARE STILL
AROUND 20 DEGREES...SO WILL NEED TO OVERCOME THIS. WITH SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING LIKELY IN THE LAYER EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 50S DESPITE THE HEAVY CLOUD COVER. WAS TEMPTED TO INCREASE
POPS A BIT AROUND LAREDO...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL GUIDANCE (GFS UNDER 20...NAM 40 TO 50)...AND QPF NUMBERS
ONLY EXPECTED AT A FEW HUNDREDTHS AS IT IS...WILL STICK WITH THE 30
POPS SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME. ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...COULD SEE A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN LINGER FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT THINK EVERYONE WILL BE DRY BY THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TEMPS FRIDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST IN
THE LOWER 70S WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE MOST LIKELY. WESTERN
AREAS PROBABLY WONT WARM ABOVE THE MID 60S (SIMILAR TO TODAY). BY
FRIDAY NIGHT STRATUS DECK SHOULD BE THINNING AND WOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO DECREASE MORE THAN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN AN
EXTENDED PACKAGE OFTEN DECREASES WITH THE INCREASE IN TIME WHEN THE
FORECAST ACTUALLY OCCURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER NOW...AS
MODELS ARE FLIPPING/CHANGING WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE AND TIMING OR
STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEMS. SURFACE HIGH FINALLY MOVES EAST SATURDAY
AND MOISTURE/ONSHORE FLOW RESUME. DO NOT THINK MUCH FOR RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN MODELS ARE SHOWING A JET STREAK
IMPACTING AREA LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY (MAY END
BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT SINCE POPS ALREADY THERE WILL MAINTAIN).
WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY (NO RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY)...THEN MODELS DIFFER WITH HANDLING OF MOISTURE AND UPPER
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY. ECMWF KEEPS MORE MORE TO THE WEST (WETTER ON
00Z RUN)...GFS VERY WET. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS AND SLIGHT CHANCE WEST...WITH THE NOTION THAT
SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WILL NOT GO AS HIGH AS
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...GENERALLY A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN
TEMPERATURES MOVE LITTLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 TO MID 80S AND LOWS
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BY MID WEEK. NOT MUCH IN WINDS INITIALLY...THEN
WINDS INCREASE A BIT LATE IN THE FORECAST AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS
IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 57 69 51 72 59 / 20 20 10 10 10
VICTORIA 49 69 42 70 46 / 10 10 10 0 10
LAREDO 56 63 55 69 61 / 30 30 10 10 10
ALICE 55 67 48 72 57 / 20 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 58 70 55 71 58 / 10 10 10 0 10
COTULLA 54 65 48 67 55 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 56 67 49 72 57 / 20 20 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 60 69 57 70 61 / 10 10 10 10 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

WC/87...SHORT TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 152053
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
253 PM CST THU NOV 15 2012

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND
SORT OF WASH OUT. A WEAK COLD FRONT...APPARENT IN THE 925MB
TEMPERATURE CONTOURS...WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THEN
INCREASE A LITTLE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH THIS FRONT.

THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT THE MODELS ARE
OVERDOING THIS LAYER OF HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND 4000 FEET. 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 0 TO -1C NEAR
THE LAKE WITH THE COLD FRONT FRI MORNING. 19Z MODIS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE SHOWS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S OR 9C. THE LAKE-AIR TEMP
DIFFERENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IF
THERE IS ANY MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THIS LAYER WITHIN THE WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPPING DOWN. ONE DISCOURAGING FACT FOR THIS
QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE IS THE VERY CLEAR SKIES IN MN AND NORTHERN WI
THIS AFTERNOON.

NONETHELESS...OPTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WHOLE
FORECAST AREA BUT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CLOUD LAYER TO BE ABOUT 2KFT TO 3KFT
THICK...SO EXPECT IT TO SCATTER AWAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
MIXING AS THE FRONT GETS INTO NORTHERN IL AND WASHES OUT.

CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT MAX TEMPS FRIDAY...SO KEPT THEM CLOSE TO MOS
GUIDANCE IN THE MID 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND UPPER 40S WELL INLAND.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC SOUTHWEST 500
MILLIBAR FLOW IN PLACE. 925 TEMPS WILL REACH 5-6C SATURDAY AND WARM
TO NEAR 8C ON SUNDAY. AIRMASS QUITE DRY.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE INTO
THE AREA. QPF LOOKS LIGHT. WILL GO WITH HIGHER END CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW. GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER WITH RESULTING TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN
OVER THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS QUICKER WITH SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF WI WITH
WEST WINDS BRINGING IN DRIER AIR. MEANWHILE ECMWF SHOWS PRECIP TO
THE EAST THOUGH LINGERING 925/850 RH DUE TO SLOWER AND WEAKER LOOK
TO SURFACE TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SWIFT WEST/EAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FROM THE ECMWF WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE OF A RIDGE LOOK TO THE GFS. BEST ENERGY/MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A FROPA THOUGH IT LOOKS DRY AND
FAIRLY WEAK.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
CONTINUED ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS. ANY
DISTURBANCES ARE NORTH OR TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT PRECIP ESPECIALLY
GIVEN DRY ATMOSPHERE/LACK OF ANY MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE SOUTH.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. THEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ZIP DOWN THE LAKE AND IT IS
LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR IFR/FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS NORTHEAST WINDS BRING MOISTURE INLAND TO
AT LEAST SHEBOYGAN AND WAUKESHA AND SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
LAKESHORE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FRIDAY. CEILINGS AT
EASTERN TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER IN THE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY LATE FRI
AFTERNOON...AS THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE VERY THICK.

MADISON SHOULD SEE THESE LOW CLOUDS SPREAD INLAND BY MID FRI MORNING
AND THEN SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ON CEILING
HEIGHTS...BUT EXPECTING MVFR RATHER THAN IFR.

.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NNE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE LAKE. MAX WINDS SHOULD
BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. WAVES EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 4
FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KABQ 121022
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
322 AM MST MON NOV 12 2012

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ARE
PROVIDING TWO KEY INGREDIENTS FOR COLD TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER AS OF
3 AM WINDS STILL HAVE NOT DECOUPLED ENOUGH IN MANY AREAS. SOME
RECORDS ARE LIKELY FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SITES HOWEVER UNLESS
THE THIRD CRITICAL ELEMENT OF LIGHT WINDS TAKES SHAPE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN ABOVE RECORD TERRITORY.
THE E PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY AS MUCH AS 10F HIGHER THAN EXPECTED FOR
THIS HOUR SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH. DESPITE THESE FACTORS IT
IS STILL VERY COLD FOR MID NOVEMBER.

THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPS...PERIODIC
CLOUD COVER...AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITHIN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION EFFECTS WILL MAKE FOR SOME INTERESTING TEMPERATURE
PATTERNS AS VALLEY LOCALES MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN MID
SLOPE AREAS FOR MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY TODAY AND TUESDAY. AN AREA OF
SNOW COVER VISIBLE ON THE 1741Z MODIS RGB SNOW PRODUCT SUNDAY WILL
CORRESPOND TO THE COLDEST TEMPS THRU THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TIL SNOW
MELTS.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY IS LOW. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A VERY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ADVANCING NE OUT OF THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC
TOWARD THE SW CONUS. GOES HIGH DENSITY WIND DATA SHOWS A 130-150 KT
SUBTROPICAL JET WITHIN THIS CLOUD COVER. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THAT THE WAVE TRAIN IS BECOMING VERY ACTIVE OVER THE OPEN
PACIFIC AND QUITE AMPLIFIED AS WELL. OPERATIONAL FORECAST GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN UNSTABLE WITH RESPECT TO SEVERAL OF THESE
FEATURES SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CHALLENGES AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE JUST
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN.

GUYER

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS N AND CENTRAL NM FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING SNEAKS IN. AFTN
HIGH TEMPERATURES THOUGH WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND TODAY AND
ACCELERATING SOME TUE AS NM WILL BE UNDER A WEAK RIDGE/ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS TODAY THOUGH STILL A GOOD 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE...EVEN A BIT MORE ACROSS REMAINING LOWER TERRAIN SNOW
COVERED AREAS IN THE WEST...BUT CLIMB TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS TUE EXCEPT IN THE LATTER MENTIONED AREA. VENTILATION
POOR FOR THE MOST PART TODAY DUE TO MUCH LIGHTER WINDS SFC AND ALOFT
AND MORN INVERSIONS BEING SLOWER TO BREAK. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY FROM E TO W TUE AND WED WITH SOME
SFC LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...VENTILATION IN THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY INVERSIONS AND THUS WILL REMAIN POOR TO
LOCALLY FAIR MOST AREAS. LOCALES IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THAT
RECEIVED DECENT WEEKEND SNOW WILL SEE LOCALLY GOOD TO VERY GOOD RH
RECOVERIES AGAIN TONIGHT IF AT LEAST SOME PATCHY SNOW MANAGES TO
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE SE TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA WILL EXPERIENCE POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...WITH MIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM 7 TO 15 PERCENT BOTH OF THE
NEXT 2 AFTNS.

WED TEMPERATURES FINALLY WARM TO NEAR AND A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY DROP BACK A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN E AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM BY FRI
DUE TO WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT. VENTILATION FINALLY IMPROVES TO FAIR OR
BETTER ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST FRI...BUT NOT SO GREAT IN EAST BEHIND
THE WEAK FRONT. RIGHT NOW...MOST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY FRI OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
DRAINAGE OR CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST INTO NORTHERN
TEXAS. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL REMAIN THE RULE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 33

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 42 18 48 21 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 39 7 47 14 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 48 13 51 14 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 38 8 46 12 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 35 -1 41 5 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 39 15 49 16 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 39 16 45 21 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 58 16 63 19 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 39 17 43 21 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 44 27 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 45 22 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 45 15 50 20 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 38 18 41 17 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 19 44 17 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 44 12 50 14 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 47 18 52 21 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 44 14 53 17 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 47 24 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 45 20 53 23 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 47 29 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 46 27 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 45 24 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 23 56 25 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 45 19 56 22 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 47 23 55 25 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 54 22 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 46 24 48 29 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 45 22 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 47 12 55 16 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 47 22 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 49 24 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 53 22 58 25 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 49 27 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 43 24 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 46 15 57 18 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 47 16 58 20 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 46 20 57 23 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 47 28 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 44 21 57 23 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 52 25 64 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 52 24 65 26 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 54 27 63 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 52 27 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 53 26 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 51 25 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 56 27 62 30 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 55 27 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 52 28 59 32 / 0 0 0 0

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 102136
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
336 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE
GFS/NAM/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC THAT THE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE...
CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN CONUS (STREAMLINE DATA/WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY)...TO ENTER THE PLAINS SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED
DYNAMICS IS PROGD TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA/MSA. YET...UPPER JET
DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY. CONCUR
WITH THE FOREGOING DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THE CORRESPONDING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT THEN OFFSHORE. LOW
CIN AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES BELOW 1000J/KG SUNDAY
MORNING RESTRICTED TO THE NERN CWA SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD
SHOWER ACTIVTIY THERE. INCREASING MSTR CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASING JET DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION YET CONFINED
PRIMARILY TO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. NAM BRN VALUES IN THE
SUPERCELLULAR RANGE SUNDAY AFTN/NGT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST STRONG STORMS DRG THAT TIME
PRIMARILY OVR THE ERN CWA.

.MARINE...EXPECT PREDOMINATE SCA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE WIND CONDITIONS IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...AFTER THE FROPA AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL RESUME...CONSISTENT WITH DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT
(AND ALSO WHEN CONSIDERING 80F SST VALUES OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS PER 2-KM MODIS COMPOSITE SST COMBINED WITH CAA.)

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ONLY CONVECTION MONDAY
MORNING...IF ANY...WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY. ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A MORE POTENT
WAVE (AND ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE)...WHILE GFS AND NAM ARE
WEAKER. MEAN 1000-500MB MOISTURE FIELDS ARE 50 PERCENT OR HIGHER
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWFA. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA. AFTER THAT...SHOULD BE DRY AS WEAK WAVES STAY NORTH OF THE
AREA AND UPPER PATTERN IS RATHER ZONAL. MOISTURE COMES BACK ENOUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD WHERE EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS COULD SEE
SOME CONVECTION BY FRIDAY AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND
SOME COASTAL SHOWERS COULD MOVE ONSHORE. FOR NOW...ONLY INCLUDED THE
GULF WATERS AND THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS. OTHER THAN
THAT...MUCH COOLER MONDAY...CONTINUED COOL TUESDAY...THEN A GRADUAL
WARM UP STARTING MID WEEK. SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY MONDAY...LESS WIND TUESDAY WITH ONSHORE
(EAST TO SOUTHEAST) FLOW NOT OCCURRING TIL THURSDAY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS BEHIND FRONT MONDAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY TO BE CONTINUED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 83 59 74 52 / 10 20 50 0 0
VICTORIA 67 83 54 72 41 / 10 30 60 0 0
LAREDO 70 88 54 73 51 / 10 10 10 0 0
ALICE 68 85 57 74 47 / 10 20 40 0 0
ROCKPORT 72 81 59 75 52 / 10 30 50 0 0
COTULLA 65 86 50 70 46 / 10 10 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 68 84 59 73 51 / 10 20 50 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 72 81 62 74 56 / 10 20 50 0 0

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O'CONNOR.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

WC/87...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 091708 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1108 AM CST FRI NOV 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (EXCEPT SCEC OVER
THE NRN BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS WHEN CONSIDERING THE 2-KM MODIS
COMPOSITE SST PATTERN) THROUGH 00Z SAT OWING TO CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND NAM DETERMINISTIC 0-1KM LAPSE RATES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
NOT FAR FROM DRY ADIABATIC COMBINED WITH NAM 20-25KT 925MB ONSHORE
WIND. UNSURE WHETHER THE WIND ADVISORY OVER THE SRN CWA WL
VERIFY...YET STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN 25KT SUSTAINED 925MB WIND (NAM
DETERMINISTIC) COUPLED WITH VERTICAL MIXING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAF'S.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE LLWS THIS MORNING. THE WINDS UP TO AROUND 2K FT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 45 KNOTS OVER LRD TO AROUND 35 KNOTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS. AT THE SFC...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 5 TO 12
KNOTS. BY MID MORNING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SFC WITH
SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT GUSTING TO 35KT. SFC WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER SUNSET WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS ONCE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND BREEZY/WINDY. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT E TODAY AND SAT AS A POTENT LOW DIGS INTO THE SW U.S. WINDS
ACROSS S TX WILL BE STRONGER IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LOW. AM
EXPECTING WINDS ACROSS THE SRN CWA TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
TODAY AND COULD BE A REPEAT ON SATURDAY. NO PRECIP ANTICIPATED THRU
SAT AS MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLY THIS MORNING OR
TONIGHT...HOWEVER A STRONG LLJ WILL SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS AND
INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE FOR TODAY'S AND SAT'S
HIGHS. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS.

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVG
TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND TX PANHANDLE. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO THE
SRN NEARSHORE AND SRN BAYS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL NOON AND AN SCA
WILL BE IN EFFECT BY 9 AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND BAYS S OF PORT ARANSAS. THIS PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO
REPEAT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG SLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS S TX TODAY. THE
LOWEST MN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WITH RH BETWEEN 30-35 PERCENT. THE MN RH...STRONG
WINDS AND DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT
TODAY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS...GENERALLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED BE NEAR 40 PERCENT E OF
HIGHWAY 281 TO AROUND 60 PERCENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...ONE LAST WARM AND
BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STREAMER
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND NORTHEAST CWA.

MODELS AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TO SWEEP THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY SPED UP THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT...WITH THE FRONT NOW
ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND REACHING THE COAST
AROUND 3 AM. CAP DOES WEAKEN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND ALONG
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF JET STREAK THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
AND MARINE ZONES. IN ADDITION...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THIS REGION. BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-37. ACROSS THE FAR WEST CWA...LIMITED MOISTURE
AND DRY SLOTTING MAY PREVENT CHANCES FOR PRECIP. PRECIP SHOULD
QUICKLY END WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...
AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER 12Z
(EXCEPT OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND FAR NORTHERN COASTAL BEND). BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY
MONDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SCA CONDITIONS OVER MARINES ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S MONDAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PREVIOUS RUN OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAD BEEN INDICATING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES RETURNING TO SOUTH TEXAS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. 00Z GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS...HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF CUTS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM OFF FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND IS SLOWER CARRYING IT EASTWARD. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SUPPORT SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE
00Z GFS. SO FOR NOW WILL INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 68 88 72 88 / 10 10 10 20 10
VICTORIA 85 64 84 68 84 / 10 10 10 20 30
LAREDO 90 68 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 89 66 89 70 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 81 70 84 74 84 / 10 10 10 30 20
COTULLA 87 64 88 68 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 88 67 88 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 83 72 83 74 84 / 10 10 10 20 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DUVAL...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
PATRICIO...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

WC/87...SHORT TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 082120
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
320 PM CST THU NOV 8 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WEST COAST (BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND ON NAM/GFS 500MB STREAMLINE OUTPUT/MODEL INITIALIZATIONS) IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD
(GFS DETERMINISTIC). A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE ACRS THE
CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD. YET NO PCPN EXPECTED OVER THE CWA OWING TO
THE SOMEWHAT DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN (MOST RECENT GOES SOUNDER PWAT
OUTPUT AND PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS/GFS DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS.)
GREATER ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA IN RESPONSE TO THE
FOREGOING UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANTICIPATE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AFTN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA OWING IN PART TO VERTICAL MIXING
OF GREATER MOMENTUM. WL USE PERSISTENCE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD OWING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NEAR SFC
MSTR DRG THE PERIOD.

.MARINE...THE DETERMINISTIC NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW/GFS/WAVEWATCH INDICATE
THAT SFC WIND WILL APPROACH 20KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
NOT SURPRISING WHEN CONSIDERING THE NAM 0-1KM LAPSE NOT FAR FROM DRY
ADIABATIC WITH 20-25KT 925MB ONSHORE WIND. YET...THE 2-KM MODIS SST
COMPOSITE DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT SST GRADIENT WITH READINGS AROUND
75F OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AROUND 80F OFFSHORE. THUS WL
FCST 15-20KT WIND OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 20KT OFFSHORE.
THUS WL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...THE COMBINATION OF FCST WIND/MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES/FUEL DRYNESS MAP MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN. YET WL DEFER TO OVERNIGHT SHIFT
OWING TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WIND.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY WARM AND WINDY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO
DIG INTO THE NORTHWEST CONS AND THEN APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THUS...THE
WINDY CONDITIONS THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ADVERT INTO THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO STREAMER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EASTERN INLAND AREAS ON
SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND PUSH OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...MOISTURE WILL POOL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
GIVEN THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AREAS OUT WEST COULD BECOME
DRY SLOTTED ALOFT AND SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL.

BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THIS...AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS FILTERING INTO THE
REGION...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL WILD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR ALL OF SOUTH
TEXAS WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK ONLY
WARMING INTO THE 60S AND 70S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AHEAD OF POSSIBLY OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 68 84 68 88 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 62 84 64 84 68 / 10 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 67 90 68 89 70 / 0 10 10 10 10
ALICE 64 88 65 89 69 / 0 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 70 80 70 84 73 / 10 10 10 10 20
COTULLA 63 87 64 87 67 / 0 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 66 87 66 88 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 71 81 72 83 74 / 10 10 10 10 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

WC/87...SHORT TERM
RG/82...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KMLB 040749
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...CLEAR SKIES AND NARROWING T/TD SPREADS HAS ALLOWED SOME
MIST TO FORM ACROSS ECFL. MAIN CONCERN IS AREA OF THICKER STRATUS
AND DENSE FOG COVERING A GOOK CHUNK OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHERN/WESTERN PENINSULA. 3.9UM IMAGERY SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THIS DECK LURKING JUST WEST OF THE CWA. THIS ALSO SHOWS UP NICELY
ON SOME TIMELY 0358 AND 0633 UTC HIGH-RES MODIS IMAGES FURNISHED BY
NASA/SPORT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AREA CLOSELY AS IT LOOKS LIKE IT
COULD SPREAD EAST/SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. AT THE VERY LEAST WILL LIKELY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR LAKE AND POSSIBLY ADJACENT COUNTIES BEFORE
SUNRISE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM MORNING FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL...TODAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER SUNNY/DRY DAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES
AND A LITTLE WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS - L80S EVERY BUT THE BARRIER
ISLANDS WITH LIGHT WINDS GIVING WAY TO AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
CLEAR WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG (AND MAYBE A BETTER CHANCE FOR LOW
CLOUDS) AGAIN TONIGHT. MINS IN THE U50S/L60S.

MON-TUE...RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS THE FIRST
OF TWO SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC...GENERATING A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. LOW QUICKLY PUSHES OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND BRINGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON
MONDAY...FORECAST TO STALL OUT DURING THE DAY. A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.

A RATHER POTENT MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUES...SPINNING UP A STRONGER SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NE
GULF TUE MORNING AND EJECTING THIS FEATURE UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY TUESDAY EVENING. SLIGHT TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF...WITH THE GFS BEING THE QUICKER/WEAKER OF THE TWO WITH
THE FEATURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE
MAIN EFFECT OF THIS ON LOCAL WEATHER WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND PERHAPS RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUES AFTERNOON WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND KEPT THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUES NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ELECTION DAY. HAVE
KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT...BUT MODELS
ARE HINTING THAT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS N FL/S
GEORGIA.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S MONDAY NIGHT. TUES NIGHT LOWS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE LOW-MID
50S.

WED-FRI...DRY AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...DIPPING INTO THE LOW-MID 70S WED-THURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
POST FRONTAL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW UPPER
40S POSSIBLE IN COOLER INLAND LOCATIONS.

.AVIATION...THRU 13Z WE'LL PROBABLY DEALING WITH LIFR-VLIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS IN FG/ST AT KLEE...AND PERHAPS FARTHER EAST TO KISM-KMCO-KSFB
IF CLOUD BANK SPREADS EAST. OTHERWISE VFR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z SUN NIGHT.

.MARINE...SUN-MON...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALL OVER THE REGION WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

TUE-THU...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NE GULF AND MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OF THE STATE. SPEEDS AROUND 15KTS...PERHAPS CLOSER
TO 20KTS IF THE STRONGER AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. LATEST
MODEL RUNS DO NOT HAVE THE POST FRONTAL WINDS QUITE AS STRONG WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20KTS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUES NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF THE LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVE AND SWELL
COMING IN FROM THE DEVELOPING GALE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BUILD SEAS
TO 5-6FT OFFSHORE AND 3-5FT NEARSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15KTS ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH VALUES OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON. DURATION/WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE A
CONCERN AS FAR AS RFW ISSUANCE GOES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 81 60 78 59 / 0 10 20 30
MCO 83 60 81 59 / 0 10 20 20
MLB 80 61 79 61 / 0 10 10 20
VRB 80 59 80 60 / 0 0 10 10
LEE 83 61 81 59 / 0 10 20 30
SFB 82 61 81 60 / 0 10 20 30
ORL 83 62 81 61 / 0 10 20 20
FPR 79 59 79 59 / 0 0 10 10

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....MOSES

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 262017
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT FRI OCT 26 2012

.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAIN ISSUE IS PROGRESSION OF AND ANTICIPATED DISSIPATION OF LARGE
CLOUD MASS FROM NRN IA THROUGH MN INTO NW WI. THIS CLOUD AREA HAS AN
INCREASINGLY DIURNAL LOOK. SO NOT EXPECTING THIS TO LAST LONG OR
MAKE MUCH HEADWAY INTO SRN WI. UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTH AND
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE CRUISING NE FROM KS
AND NE. CHILLY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF INLAND MID 20S WITH L-M30S
LAKESIDE/IN THE CITY.

VORT TRACKS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND EAST WITH BROAD 500 MILLIBAR
CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING. A WEAK WAVE OR TWO ENCROACHES ON SRN WI
THOUGH AIRMASS PROGGD TO BE QUITE PARCHED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL. 925 TEMPS OF AROUND 0C SUGGEST HIGHS OF 43-46.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FOR A TIME. MODIS MEASUREMENT FROM 16Z SHOWS AVERAGE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AROUND 11-12C ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MI. HENCE EXPECT
DELTA-T TO INCREASE TO AROUND 16C. 1000-850MB FLOW DOES TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR A TIME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALL SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE DOES SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH. HOWEVER RH REMAINS
SHALLOW AND MOSTLY BELOW 3K. FOR THIS REASON...WL HOLD OFF ON ADDING
ANY POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME...BUT A BRIEF
SPRINKLE OR FLURRY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY SUN MRNG DURING
TIME OF BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKESHORE. FOR NOW WL
GO WITH P/CLDY WORDING...BUT A PERIOD OF M/CLDY SKIES POSSIBLE SUN
MRNG.

OTHERWISE...MAY EXPERIENCE SOME PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
WEAKENING UPSTREAM SYSTEMS AS THEY BUMP UP INTO INCREASING RIDGING
OVER WI AND WESTERN GTLAKES. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN POTENTIAL FOR FULL NIGHT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE FORECAST ISSUE FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE TRACK OF
EXTRA-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY. DETERMINISTIC ECMWF
REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH A FASTER AND MORE WESTERLY TRACK...PUSHING
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE UKMT...GEMNH AND GFS90
REMAIN FARTHER EAST INITIALLY...WITH THE CENTER PUSHING ASHORE
FARTHER NORTH ON TUE. DGEX CLOSER TO ECMWF BUT A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST AS WELL. GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWING ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER.

HPC LEANING MORE ON ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH TAKES EXTRA-TROPICAL
SYSTEM ON FASTER AND FARTHER WEST TRACK TOWARD THE WESTERN GTLAKES
LATER TUE AND WED. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. 85H TEMPERATURES AT
THIS TIME RANGING FROM -2 TO -5C WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW.
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AS INDICATED BY ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AND POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL WINDS FLIRTING WITH
NORTHEAST FOR A TIME. WITH DELTA-T RANGING FROM 12 TO 16C DURING
THIS TIME...POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MAY CARRY SOME LOW POPS IN THE EAST FOR MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TIME PERIOD
FROM TUE INTO WED...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. FARTHER WEST TRACK
INDICATED BY ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WOULD ALSO CARRY STRONGER MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ACROSS WI DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...BUT DUE TO
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...WL CONTAIN LOW POPS TO EASTERN AREAS FOR
NOW. COLD AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...LARGE AREA OF VFR STRATOCUMULUS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS INTO SOUTHERN WI. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS AND BUFKIT
SUGGEST IT WILL NOT MAKE IT AS WELL. CIRRUS RIDING NORTHEAST FROM
MO/SE IA WITH JET STREAK ROUNDING BROAD CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH.
OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

.CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MEDIUM.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MEDIUM.

$$
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PC
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KGRB 241413
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
913 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012

.UPDATE...
DENSE FOG WAS GRADUALLY RELEASING ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE HEADLINE WILL EXPIRE AT 10
AM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.

TDH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012...

SYNOPSIS...WARM AND VERY MOIST TDA AND TNGT...THEN TURNING
COLDER.

LNGWV TROF OVER WRN NOAM WL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT E THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. BUT WITH VERY BLOCKY PATTERN DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ATL...THE
RIDGE OVER ERN NOAM WL SHARPEN SIGNIFICANTLY BUT BASICALLY REMAIN
LOCKED IN PLACE. THEN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...A
BROAD LOW-AMPLITUE RIDGE WL BUILD NR THE WEST COAST...WHILE THE
TROF/RIDGE COMBINATION OVER ERN NOAM BASICALLY EVOLVE INTO THE WRN
LEG OF THE ATL BLOCK.

WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR WL REMAIN ACRS THE AREA INTO THU...THEN
TEMPS WL DROP BACK TO A LITTLE BLO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE FCST
PERIOD. STG COLD FRONT DRIVING INTO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WL
SUPPORT A SIG PCPN EVENT TNGT INTO THU...WITH ONLY SCT LGT PCPN AT
MOST AFTER THAT.

SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/THU. OVERALL...GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE. WL TWEAK THE POPS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE INCOMING
DYNAMICS...IT/S NOT AN AUTOMATIC THAT WE CAN DISMISS THE SVR
THREAT JUST BECAUSE THIS IS LATE OCTOBER. THE NAM FCST SOUNDINGS
FOR CENTRAL WI FOR LATE THIS AFTN WERE VERY IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS
OF SVR POTENTIAL...WITH CONSIDERABLE CAPE AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR.
HODOGRAPH WAS SOMEWHAT LOOPED...THOUGH NOT AS SWEPT OUT AS IDEAL
FOR TORNADIC STORMS. BUT THE NAM SOUNDINGS SEEMED TO BE A WORST-
CASE OUTLIER. PROGGED SFC TEMPS WERE PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO WARM.
MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SREF MEMBERS HAD
WARMER TEMPS IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE
INSTABILITY. THAT CAP WAS TOTALLY ABSENT ON THE NAM. GIVEN SOME
ISENT LIFT AND ADDED CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT
LIFTG INTO THE AREA...SOME CAPPING COULD BE OVERCOME. IT/S JUST
NOT CLEAR IF THERE WL BE ENOUGH FORCING. PLUS...BACKING OF THE
UPR FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF WL LIKELY CARRY CONVECTION THAT
FIRES BACK OVER THE FRONTAL SFC NEWD MORE TOWARD N-C WI...WHERE
THE ATM WON/T BE AS UNSTABLE. WL DETAIL CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE
SVR RISK IN THE HWO.

THE OVERALL SITN DESCRIBED ABV WL CONT INTO TNGT. STORMS WL SPREAD
FARTHER N AND E OVERNIGHT. BUT THE ATM WL BE MORE STABLE THERE...SO
SVR THREAT WL GENERALLY DECR TO THE N AND E...AND WITH TIME.
STORMS MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO E-C WI UNTIL MID-DAY THU. CARRIED LOW
POPS UP UNTIL THEN JUST IN CASE SOMETHING GETS GOING A LITTLE
FARTHER E.

SECOND SIG FCST ISSUE IS THE FG. DON/T QUITE HAVE THE WIDESPREAD
VERY LOW VSBYS WE WERE EXPECTING. BUT STILL PLENTY OF OB SITES BLO
1SM. AND SINCE VSBYS TYPICALLY EDGE DOWN ARND DAYBREAK...WL LET
THE ADVISORY RUN INTACT.

LARGE SCALE ADVECTION WL DOMINATE TEMPERATURE CHGS THE NEXT 36
HRS. BUILT 3-HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BASED ON ROBUST BLEND OF GUID
PRODUCTS...THEN TOOK MAX/MIN GRIDS FM THOSE.

LONG TERM...THU NGT THRU NEXT TUE. MAIN FCST ISSUE THRU THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WL BE THE MOVEMENT OF AN UPR TROF FROM THE NRN/
CNTRL PLAINS NEWD THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING
OFF TO AN UPR LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF TO BE
LEFT ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WHICH WL PROVIDE COOL/DRY AIR TO NE
WI. THE MEAN FLOW IS FCST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL AND BRING THE NEXT CHC
OF PCPN AROUND TUE.

SINCE THE CDFNT TO STILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE REGION
THU EVENING...WL NEED TO LINGER POPS PRIMARILY IN THE EAST. THAT
BEING SAID...CLEARING SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATER THU EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. THE THING THAT WL GET PEOPLE'S
ATTENTION BY FRI MORNING IS THE COOL TEMPS AS 8H TEMPS DROPO TO
AROUND -5C BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT TO SEE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR
20S N-CNTRL WI...MID 30S E-CNTRL WI.

AN AREA OF HI PRES OVER THE PLAINS IS FCST TO EDGE EWD THRU THE
UPR MIDWEST TOWARD WI ON FRI. PLENTY OF CAA IN PLAY WITH 8H TEMPS
IN THE -4 TO -8C RANGE. THIS COOL AIR ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD CREATE ENUF INSTABILITY (STEEPENING MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES) TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPEMENT OF FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS. TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO DEVELOP...BUT MORE CLOUDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MAX TEMPS TO BE MORE NOVEMBER-LIKE WITH READINGS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 40 DEGS NORTH...GENERALLY LWR TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE.

THE HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI NGT
WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY AIR ON NW WINDS. MOST OF NE WI SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU THE NIGHT WITH TWO POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS.
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC MAY VEER ENUF TO THE NORTH TO POSSIBLY
BRING LK EFFECT CLOUDS INTO N-CNTRL WI AS WELL AS ALONG THE LK MI
SHORELINE. EVEN WITH SOME LK CLOUDS AROUND...IT WL STILL BE A COOL
NGT OVER NE WI WITH MIN TEMPS SETTLING INTO THE MID 20S N-CNTRL...
MID TO UPR 20S CNTRL...TO THE MID 30S NEAR LK MI. MDLS CONT TO SHOW
AS THE HI PRES FINALLY REACHES THE GREAT LKS...IT IS FCST TO START
WEAKENING DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE DEVELOPING CNTRL
CONUS LONGWAVE TROF. STILL EXPECT TO SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
ON SAT WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO RUN 5 TO 10 DEGS BLO NORMAL.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...THIS UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO HAVE
REACHED THE GREAT LKS WITH A PREDOMINANT NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WI.
TYPICALLY...THERE WOULD BE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SOMEWHERE WITHIN
THIS NW FLOW...BUT THE MDLS HINT AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. DO EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...BUT
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER NEARBY...HAVE KEPT SUNDAY DRY WITH
TEMPS COMPERABLE TO SAT. ANOTHER AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD
SWD FROM WRN ONTARIO INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS SUNDAY NGT INTO MON.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RDG SETS UP...WL NEED TO WATCH LK EFFECT
ALONG LK MI AS WINDS COULD TURN N-NE. IF THIS LK EFFECT DOES NOT
OCCUR...DO NOT SEE ANY OTHER FEATURE THAT COULD TRIGGER ANY PCPN
AS THE NEXT PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROF TO STILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE NRN PLAINS.

PLENTY OF QUESTIONS REMAIN BEYOND NEXT MON WITH REGARDS TO THE
MDLS GETTING A HANDLE ON THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM 'SANDY'. IF
THIS SYSTEM GETS PULLED TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...IT WL SLOW THE
PROGRESS OF OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS INCLUDING THE
SHORTWAVE/ACCOMPANIED CDFNT HEADED TOWARD WI MON NGT/TUE. FOR
NOW...HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A SLGT
CHC OF SHWRS INTO THE FCST AREA ALTHO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MARINE...GLERL SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURE ANALYSES AND MODIS STLT
PASSES FM A COUPLE DAYS AGO INDICATED THAT COLDER WATER HAD
UPWELLED JUST OFF THE KEWAUNEE/MANITOWOC COUNTY SHORELINE AREAS.
WITH A SLY FLOW OF AIR WITH SFC DWPTS AOA 60F CONTG INTO THU...
WOULD EXPECT DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE BAY...AT
LEAST AT TIMES. SO WL RUN THE MARINE FG ADVISORY UNTIL THE
SCHEDULED FROPA THU AFTN. SLY WINDS WL INCR TNGT. WAVES OVER THE
LAKE SHOULD EASILY REACH SC.Y CRITERIA...AND WINDS MAY REACH AS
WELL. WL HOLD OFF ON ADDING THAT HEADLINE NOW TO KEEP FOCUS ON THE
MORE IMMEDIATE THREAT OF THE DENSE FOG...BUT WL PROBABLY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO POST SC.Y.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. VSYBS NOT QUITE AS UNIFORMLY
LOW AS EXPECTED...BUT STILL PRETTY MUCH IFR AND BLO ACRS THE AREA.
WL PROBABLY GET FOG TO THICKEN SOME ARND DAYBREAK. CONDITONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FM S-N DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH IT WL BE A SLOW
PROCESS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018>021-030-031-035>039-045-048-049-073-074.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR WIZ022-040-050.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KGRB 240856
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
356 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND VERY MOIST TDA AND TNGT...THEN TURNING
COLDER.

.SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/THU. OVERALL...GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE. WL TWEAK THE POPS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

LARGE SCALE ADVECTION WL DOMINATE TEMPERATURE CHGS THE NEXT 36
HRS. BUILT 3-HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BASED ON ROBUST BLEND OF GUID
PRODUCTS...THEN TOOK MAX/MIN GRIDS FM THOSE.

.LONG TERM...THU NGT THRU NEXT TUE. MAIN FCST ISSUE THRU THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WL BE THE MOVEMENT OF AN UPR TROF FROM THE NRN/
CNTRL PLAINS NEWD THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING
OFF TO AN UPR LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF TO BE
LEFT ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WHICH WL PROVIDE COOL/DRY AIR TO NE
WI. THE MEAN FLOW IS FCST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL AND BRING THE NEXT CHC
OF PCPN AROUND TUE.

.MARINE...GLERL SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURE ANALYSES AND MODIS STLT
PASSES FM A COUPLE DAYS AGO INDICATED THAT COLDER WATER HAD
UPWELLED JUST OFF THE KEWAUNEE/MANITOWOC COUNTY SHORELINE AREAS.
WITH A SLY FLOW OF AIR WITH SFC DWPTS AOA 60F CONTG INTO THU...
WOULD EXPECT DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE BAY...AT
LEAST AT TIMES. SO WL RUN THE MARINE FG ADVISORY UNTIL THE
SCHEDULED FROPA THU AFTN. SLY WINDS WL INCR TNGT. WAVES OVER THE
LAKE SHOULD EASILY REACH SC.Y CRITERIA...AND WINDS MAY REACH AS
WELL. WL HOLD OFF ON ADDING THAT HEADLINE NOW TO KEEP FOCUS ON THE
MORE IMMEDIATE THREAT OF THE DENSE FOG...BUT WL PROBABLY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO POST SC.Y.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

$$
SKOWRONSKI/KALLAS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KABQ 232114
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
314 PM MDT TUE OCT 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE WARM DAY ON WED THEN MUCH COOLER...COLDER THU AND FRI.
STRONG WINDS LATER TON THROUGH WED NIGHT OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL
MOUNTAINS ONTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.

MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT HELPING TO GENERATE DECENT SURFACE WINDS
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SANGRES TO LAS VEGAS AND RATON...AS
WELL AS FROM MORIARTY TO TUCUMCARI. MODIS RGB AIRMASS WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION CONTINUING OVER NE NM.
MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 70S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...ALL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A FEW RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN...WITH A RECORD HIGH ALREADY
IN RATON.

WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP EARLY TONIGHT ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN TOPS AND PLOW DOWN THE
E SLOPES ONTO THE NE HIGHLANDS EARLY WED. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
WILL ALSO SEE STRONG WINDS WED. WE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN TOP ZONES AND E SLOPES...RATON
RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA FOR LATE TON THROUGH WED AND FOR THE CNTRL...
NE AND FAR NE HIGHLANDS WED AM THROUGH WED PM. THE OTHER WEATHER
STORY WED WILL BE THE EXCEPTIONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MANY
NEAR RECORD OR RECORD BREAKING HIGHS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE SANGRES WED NIGHT AND
INCREASE OVER THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS TO LIKELY ADVISORY LEVELS.
MEANWHILE A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING TO OUR N
WED NIGHT WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT RACING ACROSS WRN NM AND
A POLAR FRONT SLAMMING INTO THE NE PART OF THE STATE. THE TWO
WILL COMBINE TO BRING MUCH COOLER...COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE
FORECAST AREA THU...INCLUDING NEARLY 40 DEGREES COLDER AT CLAYTON.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY THU.

CHILLY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE STATE THU NIGHT WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NE. ENOUGH TO PERHAPS CREATE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND THE FAR
NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. IT WILL BE CHILLY
ON FRI WITH HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT IN
THE SW. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE...HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRI NIGHT.

THE WEEKEND WILL START CHILLY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
ESPECIALLY ON SUN. IT WILL BE DRY AREA WIDE WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND NOT TOO MUCH WIND. CHJ

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOCALIZED AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND SANDIAS
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOME RED FLAG CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LOW HUMIDITY. THE CONDITIONS WILL LESSEN AS THE SUN GOES DOWN BUT
RETURN AND EXPAND WEDNESDAY. THIS IS IN RESULT OF AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW AND MOST LIKELY PROVIDE A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.

THE UPPER WIND FLOW IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND BUFFET
THE HIGHER PEAKS...ESPECIALLY WITH WESTERLY EXPOSURE. AT THE SAME
TIME...A MODERATE TO STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE DRAPED OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. THIS MEANS THAT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE MODEST
AT BEST EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE GOOD RECOVERIES
ARE EXPECTED. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTRUSION. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HUMIDITIES
FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT FORECAST FROM THE MODEL
AS WELL AS INCREASED MECHANICAL MIXING...LOWERED DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE LEVELS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. THIS IS WHERE HUMIDITY READINGS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. THESE LOWER HUMIDITIES COUPLED WITH STRONG
WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A FAIRLY
EXPANSIVE AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF. THIS WILL BE
COMBINED WITH WELL ABOVE TO NEAR RECORD LEVEL TEMPERATURES. HAINES
VALUES WILL BE A SMATTERING OF 4 TO 5/S SO NOT A CLASSIC SPRING CASE
BY ANY MEANS. REGARDLESS...UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE
FOUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE ACTUAL MOUNTAIN
AREAS FOUND WITHIN THE SANDIA/MANZANOS AS WELL AS SANGRES. MODELS DO
SHOW THE PEAK WINDS ALOFT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE FLOW TURNS FROM A WEST/SOUTHWEST TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST AND ULTIMATELY NORTHWESTERLY. THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN WIND ENVELOPE WILL THEN
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND AFFECT THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS AND AREAS TO
THE EAST AS STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION IS SURE TO MATERIALIZE. A
VERY STRONG TROUGH INDUCED PACIFIC MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ALSO
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE AND CONSIDERABLY DROP DEWPOINTS. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS AND AREAS TO THE LEE OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I40. RECOVERIES
AS A RESULT WILL BE PRETTY POOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MODERATE TO POOR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE WE ARE LOOKING AT SOME GOOD
RECOVERIES AS THE WIND SHIFTS DIRECTION THERE.

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. PERHAPS MORE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. THE PACIFIC DRY SLOT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME AND SAG SOUTHWARD
BASED ON LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS BUT NOT BEFORE DROPPING HUMIDITY
READINGS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIRD. MUCH
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO
THE MORE EASTERLY WIND THERE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER GROWTH
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY. ESPECIALLY AS MIXING
HEIGHTS DROP PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY. MUCH MORE STABLE AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS ALOFT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STRONG.

THE WIND GRADIENT RELAXES SOME FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY ALL OF THE MODELS. GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE BUT WILL BE SLOWER DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR. SUN ANGLE IS
CERTAINLY LESSENING. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING AS A RESULT OF CLEARER SKIES...DECREASING WIND AND THE VERY
LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. VENTILATION WILL CERTAINLY
TAKE A HIT DURING THIS PERIOD BUT SHOULD IMPROVE SOME ON SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND.

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS PROMISING FOR RX
BURNS BASED ON THE FLOW PATTERN PROJECTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF.
FAIRLY MODEST WIND ALOFT UNDER A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. VENTILATION
SHOULD BE DECENT ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY AS IT CONCERNS MAX RATES. ALL
EYES WILL BE ON THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH IS PROJECTED FOR LATER
IN THE WEEK. WINDS WOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF IT SIMILAR TO THIS LAST
ONE. MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND ON THE INTENSITY AND TIMING SO
CONFIDENCE CERTAINLY DEGRADES THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 50

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOKING FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KT AT GUP...LVS AND TCC AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONGER WIND FLOW EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN
PORTION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS IS WHEN ALL
TERMINAL SITES SHOULD SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KT AND MOST LIKELY
HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF. SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN THE
MOS GUIDANCE AT ABQ/SAF ON WEDNESDAY SO HOPE TO GET A CLEARER
PICTURE AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 41 69 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 28 67 25 53 / 0 5 5 5
CUBA............................ 37 70 30 57 / 0 0 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 34 68 24 58 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 33 68 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 37 71 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 40 72 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 39 77 32 71 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 31 63 28 49 / 0 5 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 45 70 40 56 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 44 68 38 53 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 38 68 34 54 / 0 5 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 34 60 27 44 / 0 5 5 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 35 64 26 47 / 0 0 5 5
TAOS............................ 35 68 29 56 / 0 0 5 5
MORA............................ 44 69 37 52 / 0 0 5 5
ESPANOLA........................ 38 74 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 42 71 36 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 41 74 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 47 74 43 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 76 45 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 45 78 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 78 43 64 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 42 79 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 47 77 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 48 84 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 46 72 40 62 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 46 73 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 38 74 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 45 74 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 46 77 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 47 80 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 47 75 44 65 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 42 77 33 43 / 0 0 5 5
RATON........................... 40 80 35 46 / 0 0 5 5
SPRINGER........................ 43 80 35 52 / 0 0 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 46 78 38 57 / 0 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 50 86 37 48 / 0 0 5 5
ROY............................. 48 82 39 48 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 51 87 42 57 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 50 85 44 63 / 0 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 53 92 45 59 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 51 89 47 63 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 50 89 47 66 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 51 91 47 68 / 0 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 51 94 50 76 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 49 86 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 50 79 46 70 / 0 0 0 0

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ523-528-529.

40/50

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KABQ 230936
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
336 AM MDT TUE OCT 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH NEAR RECORD AND SOME RECORD BREAKING
HIGHS...PARTICULARLY EAST..AND INCREASING WIND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THEN A BIG CHANGE TO COOLER/COLDER WEATHER. PRECIPITATION WILL
STILL BE VERY PALTRY THOUGH AND LIMITED MAINLY TO THE NE QUARTER...
THAT MAINLY DURING THE THU NIGHT TO FRI PERIOD.

WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH A FEW NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
EAST. SFC WINDS WILL BE UP A GOOD 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10 MPH ACROSS N
CENTRAL AND NE NM. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE MOUNTAINTOPS
TONIGHT. EVEN WARMER IN THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH A NUMBER OF
RECORD HIGHS LIKELY. WINDS TO BE HIGHER STILL WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST. STILL MAY BE SOME
PATCHY ADVISORY LEVEL...OR NEARLY SO...WIND SPEEDS ACROSS NE THIRD
OR SO OF NM...BUT STILL TOO CLOSE TO THE MARGINAL RANGE TO
CONSIDER MORE THAN 24 HRS OUT. LOOKING AT MODIS RGB AIR MASS H2O
VAPOR IMAGERY...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE MTN WAVE ACTIVITY
GOING ON OVER TO A SLIGHT DISTANCE E OF SANGRES...BUT WHILE ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FOR NOW...NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE TOO MUCH OF A PROB. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OR TWO MOVING THROUGH A LONG WAVE
TROUGH...AND THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC AND POLAR FRONTS...WILL THEN
IMPACT NM WED NIGHT AND THU. TEMPERATURES THU WILL BE BE 10 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST AND ROUGHLY 5 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER IN THE NW. A REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR THU NIGHT AND
FRI WILL BRING EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA.
SADLY...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH PRECIPITATION COMBINING WITH
THE COLDER AIR. A LITTLE SNOW IS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NE...LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS
LOWER TERRAIN. THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH A CHILLY SATURDAY
FOLLOWED SOME WARMING FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS THEREAFTER.

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...A FEW HOURS OF LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
ADJACENT NORTHEAST PLAINS ACROSS SAN MIGUEL AND MORA COUNTIES.
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST TO THE TEXAS LINE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES EMERGING IN PATTERN
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD PATTERN
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. CIRCULATION ABOUT SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO...AS
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST AND SHEAR RAPIDLY EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH FLOW ALOFT VEERING TO NORTHWEST TO
WIND UP THE WORK WEEK. WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGING IN
BRINGING NEXT SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INTO NEW
MEXICO. GFS MODEL FASTER TO BRING WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST ON TUESDAY...WITH ECMWF RUNNING ABOUT 36 HOURS LATER FOR
TROUGH PUSH ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP EYE ON RUNS TO FOLLOW
AND SEEK BETTER CONSENSUS.

FOR TODAY...WARMING AND DRYING CONTINUING WITH HUMIDITIES FALLING TO
NEAR 10 PCT IN THE EAST. DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN
COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE AFTERNOON WIND
SPEEDS OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND PRODUCE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST
HUMIDITIES OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR ACROSS SAN MIGUEL AND
MORA COUNTIES...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER SUNSET AS HUMIDITIES
RECOVER. TEMPERATURES RUNNING UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE LATE OCTOBER
NORMALS OVER THE EAST...WITH TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TYPICAL FOR
THE WEST. NO VENTILATION ISSUES WITH ONLY FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW DEEPENING RAPIDLY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS AS BASE OF DIGGING TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
DAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SUMMITS AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS TO THE TEXAS BORDER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DROPPING ONCE AGAIN
TO NEAR 10 PCT OVER THE AREA...AND BROAD AREA OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING GENERALLY FROM INTERSTATE 25
EASTWARD...AND INTERSTATE 40 NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OF NEW MEXICO. WILL HOIST FIRE WEATHER WATCH WITH THE MORNING
PACKAGE TO COVER. LITTLE CHANGE TO NEAR RECORD SETTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST...RUNNING TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS...WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE WEST. NO VENTILATION PROBLEMS. MAINLY FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...COLD FRONT SWINGING RAPIDLY EAST AND SOUTH IN THE
WAKE OF FAST MOVING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A 20 TO 30 DEGREE DROP OVER THE EAST...WITH
MORE MODEST DECREASES IN THE WEST. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BOOST
EASTERN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S PCT...WHILE
THE WEST REMAINS IN THE TEENS PCT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH WILL
MAKE MAJOR SWING FROM THE HEAT TO 8 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW LATE OCTOBER
NORMALS...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
DETERIORATING VENTILATION CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH MODEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE SUMMITS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR IN PLACE WILL SET UP FREEZES OVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH SUBFREEZING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT OVER
THE EAST...FAIR TO GOOD OVER THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...BROAD WARMING TREND THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD LATE OCTOBER
NORMALS. A VERY CHILLY FRIDAY OVERNIGHT SHOULD DELIVER HARD FREEZES
TO MOST ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. LAST OF THE RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRETTY MODEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SUMMITS AND SLOPES OF THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS...AND SOME SNOW WORKING OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. GENERAL DRYING TREND UNDERWAY WILL DROP MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES BACK INTO THE 20S PCT OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL...WITH
TEENS PCT OVER THE WEST. MARGINAL VENTILATION CONDITIONS FRIDAY
IMPROVING SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
POOR OVER THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

SHY

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE BASE
OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT BASIN...WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE HIGHER PEAKS AND IN
THE LEE OF THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. LCL GUSTS TO 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM
NEAR KRTN SOUTH TO NEAR KLVS. GUSTY W TO SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR KGUP AND FROM KLVS...KCQC TO KTCC...WHERE
GUSTS TO 35KTS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 73 39 70 32 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 68 28 67 26 / 0 0 5 5
CUBA............................ 70 37 69 31 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 71 36 68 28 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 69 34 67 26 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 73 38 71 31 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 72 41 71 35 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 78 39 77 34 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 64 31 62 29 / 5 0 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 69 46 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 68 43 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 68 38 67 34 / 0 0 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 61 34 59 29 / 0 0 5 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 64 35 63 28 / 0 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 69 34 68 30 / 0 0 0 5
MORA............................ 70 43 69 37 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 74 39 73 33 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 71 42 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 73 43 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 73 48 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 75 51 75 45 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 78 46 78 42 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 77 48 77 43 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 78 45 78 41 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 76 48 76 42 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 82 49 83 44 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 70 46 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 72 47 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 74 40 73 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 74 44 73 38 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 76 47 76 42 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 79 48 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 73 49 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 77 42 77 35 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 80 39 80 35 / 0 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 81 42 79 35 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 77 43 78 38 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 85 49 83 36 / 0 0 0 5
ROY............................. 81 47 80 39 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 86 50 85 42 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 84 50 84 44 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 88 52 89 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 86 51 87 47 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 86 50 87 47 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 87 51 89 47 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 90 53 93 50 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 86 50 85 46 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 79 52 78 47 / 0 0 0 0

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 220830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GOES SOUNDER INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE ALREADY
DOUBLED IN LAST 24 HOURS TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER SOUTHERN WI.
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS OVER CENTRAL CONUS AHEAD OF LONG WAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OUT WEST CONTINUE TO PULL DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE
50S TO AROUND 60 AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL IA...AHEAD OF APPROACHING
WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS ADDED MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET PRODUCING INCREASING CONVECTION OVER SW IA/NRN MO.
UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CAUGHT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO
CONTRIBUTING LIFT TO CONVECTION. PER IR IMAGERY SHORT WAVE
UPSTREAM FROM CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST NE AREA. DESPITE WEAKENING
OF LOW LEVEL JET TO THE SOUTH OF WI THIS MORNING...WAVE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL AREA LATER THIS MRNG
AND AFTN. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...WL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL
POPS FROM MID-MRNG THRU THE AFTN. WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL
EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO SRN WI...WL CONTINUE T MENTION. MUCAPES MAY
REACH 1000 J IN THE SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TRICKY TODAY DUE TO
THICKENING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AND COOL NEARSHORE LAKE MI WATERS.

SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVE. HOWEVER LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA SHOULD STILL TRIGGER SCT TO
NUMEROUS -SHRA FOR A TIME...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE LATER IN THE
NIGHT. WL CONTINUE SMALL THREAT FOR THUNDER IN SOUTH LATER TNGT AS
LOW LEVEL JET GETS REENERGIZED JUST TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN FOG AND MAYBE DENSE
FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT.

.TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS SHOW WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS
IN MOVING THE FRONT TO THE NORTH. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE AGAIN
SHOWING A LOT OF ELEVATED AND MEAN LAYER CAPE VERSUS THE GFS
SOUNDINGS.

GIVEN THE STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION...WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARD THE LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES OF
THE GFS SOUNDINGS...WHICH HAVE A MORE REALISTIC TEMPERATURE
STRUCTURE. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...WITHIN WARM
AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME. WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH SOUTH WINDS.

THE WARM FRONT THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND LINGERS THERE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR AIRMASS. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPPING OF SURFACE
BASED AIR PARCELS DURING THIS TIME...WITH NAM SOUNDINGS AGAIN
SHOWING A LOT OF MEAN LAYER AND ELEVATED CAPE. LEANED TOWARD THE
GFS SOUNDINGS FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

WILL TRY TO GO WITH LOWER END POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...AS WARM
SECTOR SHOULD BE CAPPED. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
IN NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA...WHERE THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET NOSE FOCUSES...WITH SOME FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION. IT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE CAP WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WHOLE AREA AS WELL.

ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH 70S FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN.
MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...SOME POSSIBLY DENSE...TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH TIMING OF STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH
THE FRONT SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF
IT TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...AS
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS IN PLACE. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS
STILL IN QUESTION...AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS
ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING OF FRONT DURING THE DAY ALSO HELPS WITH
SEVERE CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POTENTIAL IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

TRAILING VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...STRONGER ON THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF WITH THIS FEATURE DURING THIS
TIME...WITH THE ECMWF DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO USE CONSENSUS OF
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL POPS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WENT
WITH CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...MOIST LOW LEVELS AND
LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL RESULT IN LOW CIGS OF IFR OR
LOWER FOR MOST OF TNGT. DENSE FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

.MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHTER THROUGH TUESDAY AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN WI AND LOWER LAKE MI. MAIN
PROBLEM WILL BE DENSE FOG THREAT. WARM...MOIST AIR EXPECTED TO
SURGE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND BUOY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
DATA HAS THE LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
IN THE MID LAKE TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN PORTIONS OF THE NEAR SHORE
SHALLOWER WATERS. DEWPOINTS WL LIKELY RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOWER 60S IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. HENCE THIS MILD MOIST AIR WOULD
BE COOLED OVER THE LAKE POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ADVECTION DENSE FOG.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PULL THE 50-55 DEGREE WATER INTO THE
NEARSHORE AREAS...REDUCING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SO FOR NOW WL
MENTION AREAS OF DENSE FOG LATE TNGT BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVY.
COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS MAY RESULT IN MORE ELY SFC WINDS FOR A
TIME LATER TODAY AND TNGT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 090620
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
220 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH REINFORCING COLD FRONTS THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY AM RADAR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW BAND OF -SHRA TRAINING OVR
LANCASTER CO...COINCIDENT WITH AXIS OF MDL 8-7H FGEN
FORCING...WHICH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE BY ARND 12Z. WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER POPS ACROSS THE SE ZONES BTWN 06Z-12Z.

WAA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING...HOLDING TEMPS UP. WHERE
SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO ARND FREEZING
ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES AT 05Z. PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ARND
DAWN SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...IT/S
A CLOSE CALL AS TO HOW COLD TEMPS GET. CURRENTLY BELIEVE PATCHY
FROST WITH MINS IN THE M30S SHOULD DO IT ACROSS THE LAURELS.
FURTHER EAST...LITTLE RISK OF FROST...AS SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY CLOUDY. WHERE SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE W MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM. MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY
SHOWS VALLEY FOG HAS ALREADY FORMED ACROSS WARREN CO AT 04Z.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY -SHRA ACROSS LANCASTER CO SHOULD BE ENDING BY ARND 12Z...AS
SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE. CLEARING SKIES WILL
SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TODAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN PA.
DON/T EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPS...AS SUNSHINE
HELPS WARM THE NORMALLY COOLER W MTNS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE U50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXCELLENT MDL AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING BASE OF GRT LKS TROF ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE-STARVED
SYSTEM AND ASSOC COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HRS...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVR
THE N MTNS.

WED NIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AGAIN...MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
WIND TO KEEP MOST AREAS ABOVE FREEZING.

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUNNY/DRY WX THURSDAY...WHEN ALL MDL DATA
TRACKS SFC RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA.

THU NIGHT MAY FEATURE FROST...FREEZE ISSUES...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM NW PA...IF THE GRADIENT AND CLD COVER IS SLOW
TO INCREASE.

ANOTHER MOISTURE- STARVED COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY...WITH
FAIRLY LOW POPS.

FRI NITE COULD BE ANOTHER COLD ONE AS HIGH PRES WITH LOW PW AT
AIR DRIFTS OVR THE STATE.

MODELS HINT AT A PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
WARMER WX APPEARS LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE COAST AND RETURN SW FLOW DEVELOPS. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FADE AND DISSIPATE AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES. A BRIEF LINE HAS FORMED ALONG A BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTH WEST OVER RENOVO. THIS WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. THIS IS INDICATIVE
OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE FORMATION AND CONTINUATION OF LOW STRATOCU OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS LIKELY FROM SEG SOUTH AND EAST.
HAVE BROUGHT ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR BY LATE EVENING.
BFD...WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD. BFD SHOULD SEE REDUCING CIGS AND VSBYS BY 06Z THROUGH
15Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY AS THE WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR...BUT MVFR POSS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.

THU...VFR.

FRI...VFR...BUT MVFR POSS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.

SAT...NO SIG WX.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-037.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 051026
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
626 AM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT AS IT ENTERS NORTHWEST PA TODAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT THROUGH
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...DRAGGING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING SOME VALLEY FOG THIS
MORNING...MOST PREVALENT ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. LAMP GUIDANCE
AND NAM SFC RH FIELDS SUGGEST THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BTWN 13Z-15Z.

A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR IS PUSHING A
DYING COLD FRONT TOWARD PA EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST MDL DATA
INDICATES THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA LATER
TODAY...PERHAPS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR A FEW AFTN SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE N MTNS.

SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...WHILE MOST OF NORTHERN PA WILL SEE
MORNING SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH APPROACH OF DYING FRONT. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM THE M60S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE
LIMITED...TO ARND 80F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASED OF UPPER TROF WILL CAUSE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG STALLED FRONT OVR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED BY ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA TONIGHT...BRINGING OUR NW COUNTIES A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONGEST FORCING AND RIBBON OF MDL 8-7H
FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SAT AM. DURING THIS TIME...BLEND OF OPER AND ENS MEAN QPF SUGGESTS
UP TO 0.75 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS WARREN CO...WITH RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING AMTS FURTHER SE.

MOST OF CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN IN THE RELATIVELY QUIET /DRY/ WARM
SECTOR SOUTH OF LOW TRACK TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT AM...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA.
THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS TONIGHT ON THE MILD SIDE...AND IN THE
50-55F RANGE FOR LOWS SE OF THE MTNS...WHILE THE NW MTNS AND
LAURELS COOL OFF TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S BEHIND FRONT.

MDLS INDICATE AN ANAFRONT STRUCTURE WITH BULK OF CLOUDS/SHRA
BEHIND COLD FRONT...ASSOC WITH THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION OF JET
ENTRANCE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THIS POST-FRONTAL REGIME
SHOULD TEND TO DRY UP SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS. WILL PLACE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS THRU LATE MORNING...BUT ONLY ARND 25
PCT CHC ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. BY AFTN...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS
TO BE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION AND SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY
CLEAR...AS LOW PWAT AIR FLOWS INTO THE STATE ON WESTERLY FLOW.

TEMPS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE L50S OVR THE NW
MTNS...TO ARND 70F OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TIMING DIFFS HAVE BECOME MINIMAL WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
UPPER LVL WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY SPREAD INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND
DIURNAL HEATING SUN AFTN. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...STRONG LG SCALE FORCING...AS IMPLIED BY MDL
500-300MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
MEASURABLE RAIN IN MOST SPOTS ON SUNDAY. TEMPS ACTUALLY BECOME
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED WITH THE SHRA SUNDAY
EVENING OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ALLEGHENIES...AS UPPER SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THRU.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG OPER MDLS AND ENSEMBLES
THRU NEXT WEEK...ALL OF WHICH PLACE MEAN UPPER TROF AXIS OVR THE
GRT LKS. NOTABLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING ARND THIS FEATURE SHOULD
AFFECT PA WED AND THU NITE/FRIDAY.

SFC ANTICYCLONE/LOW PWAT AIR PASSING OVR THE STATE SHOULD ENSURE
FAIR AND COOL WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PASSAGE
OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT ON WED...WILL BRING A CHC OF
SHOWERS. AFTER THAT...NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WITH
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THU NITE OR FRIDAY. WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY...TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE BLW NORMAL THRU NEXT
WEEK...AS WE REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROF AND BLW
NORMAL 850 TEMPS.

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY VFR. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE MAINLY AT THE
EASTERN THREE TAF SITES /KIPT-KLNS-KMDT/. ALL HAVE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AT 2 DEGREES OR LESS...SO EXPECT MVFR VSBY WITH IFR
CIGS AT KIPT AFTER 06Z...AND MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING AT KLNS-KMDT WITH
BRIEF IFR POSS TOWARD SUNRISE. SHORT-LIVED MVFR VSBY MAY DEVELOP
AT KBFD AFTER 08Z AS WELL.

FRI AFTERNOON...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NW PA...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEFORE 00Z SAT TO
KBFD...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TAP FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN WILL COVER THE NW THIRD OF
THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT /MAINLY IMPACTING KBFD/...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONTINUING ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE CWA. CONDITIONS MAY
DROP TO MVFR ALONG THE KJST-KUNV-KIPT LINE DURING THE MID-LATE
MORNING SAT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT BFD AND JST. VFR TO
PERIODS OF MVFR ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION MAY TURN
TO A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND WET SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT INVOF OF KBFD.

MON AND TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
SCATTERED SHRA ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN PENN.
OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 010712
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
312 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION TODAY. WET WEATHER
WILL RETURN TO THE KEYSTONE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FOG PRODUCT SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING RAPIDLY IN THE
REGIONAL VALLEYS WHILE THIN HIGH CLOUDS MAKE SLOW INROADS OVER
SWRN PA. IF THE HIGH CLOUDS HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH...THE FIRST
VISUALS OF THE DAY SHOULD REVEAL A PRETTY MUCH CLASSIC DENDRITIC
FOG PATTERN IN CENTRAL PA.

EXPECTED LOWS IN THE M30S IN THE COLDER VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FROST BY
DAWN.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS...SFC RIDGE WILL
BISECT THE STATE...IN BETWEEN DEPARTING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW
LIFTING NWD ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND DEVELOPING SRN STREAM WAVE OVR
MS/AL. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN
SYSTEM LATE IN THE DAY...AS IT MOVES NWD INTO THE TN VLY BY 00Z
TUE. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTH TO
SOUTH.

MDLS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVG THE SFC WAVE INTO TN/KY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. ANOMALOUS SLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT ROBUST NWD MSTR
FLUX INTO THE AREA MON NGT...WITH PWATS SURGING TO +2-3SD BY 12Z
TUE. ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS PERHAPS A DUEL MSTR FEED FM
THE GOMEX AND ATM RIVER EMANATING FM THE BAHAMAS. THE LATTER
SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN SOURCE OF HI PWATS INTO TUES. THE 12Z
MODELS STILL DISPLAY SOME DETAIL DIFFS WITH THIS SYS AND THEREFORE
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SHORT TERM FCST FOR THE DY2 FINALS.
HOWEVER WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z GEFS/09Z SREF...STILL FEEL THAT
HIGHER POPS ARE JUSTIFIED /ESPECIALLY FROM 06-12Z TUES/ GIVEN THE
STG WAA/ISENT LIFT AND MSTR TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY TUES...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR MISSOURI. SFC LOW WILL BE LIFTING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DRAGGING AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH PA LATER
TUE OR TUE NIGHT. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS ERODING
STABILITY AND SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION AS THE
FRONT GETS CLOSER TUES...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. QPF ON
TUE LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.25 ON AVERAGE...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSS.

SOAKING RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT RIDES OVER THE SFC LOW...AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES AROUND
BASE OF TROUGH BEFORE EJECTING INTO OHIO VALLEY WED. MODELS STILL
HINTING AT WEAK SECONDARY SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SE...WHICH
MAY PEEL POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH QPFS AWAY FROM PA RESULTING IN A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...AND A MINIMAL FLOOD THREAT AT
THIS TIME.

AFTER THE SFC LOW/FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN
PUSH THROUGH WED/WED NIGHT...KEEPING MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST - MAINLY IN THE WEST AS DRY SLOT APPEARS TO WORK IN WITH
RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

THU AND FRI WILL SEE SFC RIDGING AND W/SW UPPER FLOW...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DIVERGING FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE GEFS/GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW AN APPROACHING ALBEIT FADING
FRONT LATER FRIDAY WITH THE PARENT UPPER SHORTWAVE WANTING TO
SHEAR OUT WELL NORTH AND WEST OF HERE. THE ECMWF /UNUSUALLY/
CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER...HOLDING ITS UPPER ENERGY BACK
RESULTING IN A BROAD WSW FLOW EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING OVER THE GR
LAKES AND NERN US. THIS RESULTS IN THE MODEL DEVELOPING A SLOW
MOVING WAVY ANA-FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
TOUGH TO EVEN LEAN FORECAST ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WITH SUCH
DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE...SO HAD TO KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS SEVERAL
PERIODS...THOUGH PAINTED HIGHEST POPS ON SAT. FOR
TEMPS...GRADUALLY OOZED COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION FROM
SAT INTO MON.

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY MORNING MODIS 11-3.7UM SATL IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE
VALLEY FOG AND LOWER CLDS AT THE CURRENT TIME. SOME SPOTS WILL
BE IFR OR LIFR...WHILE OTHERS WILL REMAIN MAINLY MVFR AND VFR.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...BUT HI CLDS
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE VFR.

CLDS AND SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY WORK TO THE NE LATE TODAY...
AS VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS UP.

MUCH OF TUE INTO WED WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE WEST OF THE MTS...STILL
THINK A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY...
GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NE FROM WESTERN NC.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT
TIMING NOT CLEAR CUT...AS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...AND MODELS
SHOW A LOT OF VARIATION. SUSPECT FRONT WILL COME IN SLOWER
THAN EXPECTED...AS A RATHER STRONG RIDGE IS FCST TO BE
JUST OFF THE SE COAST.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS.
WED...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS.
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 010359
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1159 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE
REGION ON MONDAY. WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE KEYSTONE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTS
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF STATES.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AND SKIES CLEARED LATE THIS EVENING...AS BLYR
COOLS AND SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST. 11-3.9U
SATL IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE S
TIER...WHERE GROUND IS WET FROM TODAY/S RAINFALL. BASED ON 02Z
DWPT DEPRESSIONS AND LATEST MDL RH FCST...WILL EXPAND THE PATCHY
FOG TO THE REST OF CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SC
MTNS...WHERE 18Z GEFS INDICATES THE WEAKEST GRADIENT AND DRIEST
AIR /PWATS 1SD BLW NORMAL/. EXPECTED LOWS IN THE M30S IN THE
COLDER VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME
PATCHY FROST BY DAWN...MAINLY ACROSS CAMBRIA/SOMERSET CO.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS...SFC RIDGE WILL
BISECT THE STATE...IN BETWEEN DEPARTING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW
LIFTING NWD ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND DEVELOPING SRN STREAM WAVE OVR
MS/AL. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN
SYSTEM LATE IN THE DAY...AS IT MOVES NWD INTO THE TN VLY BY 00Z
TUE. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTH TO
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY TUES...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR MISSOURI. SFC LOW WILL BE LIFTING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DRAGGING AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH PA LATER
TUE OR TUE NIGHT. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS ERODING
STABILITY AND SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION AS THE
FRONT GETS CLOSER TUES...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. QPF ON
TUE LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.25 ON AVERAGE...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSS.

THU AND FRI WILL SEE SFC RIDGING AND W/SW UPPER FLOW...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATE EVENING MODIS 11-3.7UM SATL IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE VALLEY
FOG HAS ALREADY FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE MCLEAR SKY AND LGT WIND
NECESSARY FOR CONTINUED COOLING AND EXPANSION OF THE FOG
OVERNIGHT. IPT ALREADY HAS A 400FT CIG AT 0330Z AND SEE NO REASON
FOR IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT DWPT
DEPRESSIONS AND CLIMATOLOGY...IT APPEARS MOST AIRFIELDS WILL
EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN FOG BEFORE THE NIGHT IS
THROUGH. UNFAVORABLE CLIMATOLOGY AT MDT WOULD SUGGEST THAT
AIRFIELD MAY ESCAPE SIG VIS RESTRICTIONS.

ANY EARLY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BTWN 12Z-14Z. FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...A NEAR CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WINDS...AS SFC HIGH
REMAINS OVR THE REGION. LOW PRES LIFTING NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING LOWERING CLOUDS AND CHC OF RAIN MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE.
WED...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE.
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 300306
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1006 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

.UPDATE...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON OBSERVATIONS...AS MAY NEED TO ADD
SOME PATCHY FOG TO EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN RAPIDLY
IN EASTERN AREAS WHERE EARLIER INFLUX OF MARINE LAYER HAS PUSHED
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S. BREEZY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD PREVENT
THICKER FOG HOWEVER.

STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF LAKE CLOUDS TO MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING MARINE LAYER MAY
ALSO HELP CAUSE SOME STRATUS OVER SOUTHEAST WI FOR A TIME. DRIER
AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERWHELM LAKE MOISTURE ALLOWING MORE
SUNSHINE TO RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS MOSTLY IN GOOD SHAPE. WL NEED TO LOWER FEW SPOTS
IN THE EAST.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW BRIEF PERIOD OF
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE TIED TO SURGE OF COLD AIR ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL RH
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. DELTA-T INCREASES TO AROUND
10-11C AT THIS TIME. LAST SEVERAL IR SHOW SOME INCREASE IN LAKE
CLOUDS OVER NORTH PART OF LAKE. WL BRING A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF BKN
MVFR INTO ERN TAF SITES EARLY SUN MRNG. OTHERWISE...EXPC VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

.MARINE...NEPHANALYSIS REVEALS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR HAS MOVED OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STILL EXPECT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO FORM OVER THE LAKE WHICH WILL
ALLOW STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS TO MIX TO SURFACE LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LATEST MODIS IMAGES HAS UNIFORM LAKE SFC TEMPS AROUND 16C
FROM THE SHORE OUT TO MID-LAKE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
FAVOR WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY BELOW 20 KNOTS...BUT PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD TO AROUND 3
FEET OR HIGHER. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES...HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
646.

$$
MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KABQ 271148
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT THU SEP 27 2012

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
ACTIVE DAY AGAIN TODAY WITH LOCALLY STRONG SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND MAINLY DRY GUSTY -SHRA/TSRA FROM
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WESTWARD. MODIS RGB IMAGERY AND OBS VERIFY
SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR NE PLAINS FROM KRTN EAST TO KCAO.
EXPECT THIS AREA TO BURN OFF QUICKLY AFT SUNRISE. CURRENTLY SOME
-TSRA EXITING EAST ALONG THE TX STATE LINE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THRU 15Z...BUT THEN QUICKLY REDEVELOP AFT 19Z WHERE REMNANT
BOUNDARIES WILL FOCUS INSTABILITY. CARRIED ONLY VCTS AT KTCC AND
KROW SINCE CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT ANY SPECIFIC SITE WILL
ACTUALLY BE IMPACTED. FARTHER WEST MAINLY DEALING WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS AND A COUPLE VCSH BY LATE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NE PLAINS TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS. GUYER

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT THU SEP 27 2012...
THE EAST HALF OF THE STATE...ROUGHLY...WILL BE WHERE MUCH OF THE
ACTION...ESPEC PCPN AND STORM INTENSITY...WILL BE OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS AS A FAIRLY DECENT COMBO OF JET RELATED DYNAMICS...
EFFECTS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IMPACT
NE AND PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL NM AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER AND PARTIALLY
TROPICAL MOISTURE AFFECTS THE SE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. FIRST
OFF THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS ACROSS NE AND FAR E
CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO AT LEAST MID EVE. THOSE AREAS
LOOKING AT SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT OF WINDS WITH SOME INCREASE IN
SPEEDS GOING UP AS WELL...THE SFC BOUNDARY WHICH COULD MIX BACK NE
A BIT...BUT LIKELY STILL STAY SOMEWHERE IN NE NM...AS WELL AS
DECENT LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA. THUS FEEL SPC OUTLOOK LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD AND THUS ADDED THE SEVERE MENTION IN WX GRIDS FOR
ROUGHLY RATON TO TUCUMCARI AND EASTWARD. KEPT APPROX SAME AREA IN
THE RISK AREA INTO MID EVE...THEN ELIMINATED IT. BUT THAT WILL HAVE
TO BE REEVALUATED LATER TODAY AS TO EXACT COVERAGE AREA AND HOW
LONG IT WILL LINGER INTO/THRU THE EVE. IN THE SE WITH SOME
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE...WITH SOME TROPICAL INPUT...WILL SEE
PERHAPS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH
MORE LOCALIZED INSTANCES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN NE NM AS WELL WITH
THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MODEST TO MODERATE UPSLOPE FLOW THERE.
AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE...ACTIVITY INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH SOME
LATER TONIGHT...BUT FRONT MAY ADVANCE SOME TO S AND W AND THAT MAY
ACTUALLY INCREASE COVERAGE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE E. HOWEVER THE VERY
LATEST NAM MODEL DATA IS MUCH LESS BULLISH ON BACK DOOR ADVANCEMENT
FOR TONIGHT SO ANY MOISTURE REPLENISHMENT TO AND ESPECIALLY W OF
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN NOW LOOKS MORE PROBLEMATIC. THUS LATER SHIFTS
WILL WANT TO SEE IF THIS NEW TREND CONTINUES AND MAKE ANY NEEDED
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND QPF ETC ESPEC W OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FOR
THE FRI TO SAT PERIOD.

WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE GETTING SHUNTED MORE TO THE SE AND E OF
THE STATE AS NW MID AND UPPER FLOW TAKES OVER...DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA WILL BE JUST A MEMORY FOR THE WEEKEND AND
GRADUALLY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OR SO WEAK RIPPLES
ALOFT IN THE NW TO INCREASINGLY N FLOW OVER WEEKEND...THERE WILL
BE A DRYING TENDENCY ACROSS THE STATE WITH EVENTUALLY SOME DAYTIME
SLIGHT TO MODERATE WARMING. AS EARLY AS MON THEN THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD STATEWIDE AS DEWPOINTS
PLUMMET AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. DID GO A
LITTLE BELOW MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MINIMUMS FROM MON ON
TO ALLOW FOR THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LENGTHENING
NIGHTS. 43

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BATTLE BETWEEN TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NE OUT OF OLD MEXICO
AND DRY AIR OOZING SE INTO THE NW HALF OF NM WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A CHALLENGING WIND AND RH FORECAST THRU THE WEEKEND. DAILY ROUNDS OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING NE ACROSS THE REGION WILL WAFFLE
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARIES OVER THE REGION COMPLICATING
WHERE THE GRADIENT FOR WETTING RAINFALL SETS UP.

CURRENTLY HEAVIER STORMS OVER THE E PLAINS ARE BRINGING SIGNIFICANT
WETTING RAIN WITH RATHER LARGE FOOTPRINTS FOR QUAY...CURRY...AND
ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. RECOVERIES RANGE FROM EXCELLENT ACROSS THE
PLAINS TO GOOD ALONG THE AZ BORDER...WHICH WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. LIKEWISE MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS AND
20S ALONG THE AZ BORDER TO THE 40S ALONG THE TX STATE LINE. THE BEST
CHANCE AT THIS TIME FOR GOOD WETTING RAINFALL FOOTPRINTS WILL BE OVER
THE SE HALF...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOIST OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO
OOZE WEST INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY FOR BETTER STORM CHANCES.
VENT RATES WILL BE NEAR POOR ACROSS THE EAST AND GOOD OUT WEST AS
HAINES VALUES FOLLOW SUIT WITH LOW VALUES OUT EAST AND MODERATE OUT
WEST.

A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN INCREASING DRY NW FLOW OVER WESTERN NM SUNDAY THEN INTO
THE EASTERN HALF BY MONDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL BRING ONE FINAL SHOT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS ON A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. MODELS
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE
UPPER HIGH...THUS DRYING OUT THE ENTIRE REGION CONSIDERABLY. MIN RH
VALUES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER
RECOVERIES WILL STILL BE FAIR TO VERY GOOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION WILL FAVOR CHILLY MIN TEMPS WITH MILD AFTERNOON
HIGHS. STRONG MID SLOPE INVERSIONS WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE PICTURE
IN THIS SCENARIO. VENT RATES AS A RESULT FALL TO POOR FOR THE WEST
AND REMAIN FAIR ACROSS THE EAST. GUYER

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

GUYER/43

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 232008
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
310 PM CDT SUN SEP 22 2012

.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...SLIDING SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT
ALSO...THOUGH WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES BEFORE
WINDS/CLOUDS LEVEL THINGS OFF TOWARD MORNING. OPTED TO GO WITH A
FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT MILWAUKEE AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES...WHERE IT
WILL LIKELY STAY MILDER AGAIN.

A NICE DAY EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP NICELY UNDER BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET BACK TO NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY
FALL.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
WEAKENING COOL FRONT SLIPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT REMAINS WEAK SO FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIP INTO NORTHERN IL RATHER QUIETLY...WITH A FEW-SCT CU
AND WIND SHIFT MARKING ITS PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TURNING TO THE NNE ON
WED. COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN WI AND OVER LAKE MI DURING
THIS TIME.

LOW LEVEL WINDS FLIRT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME ON WED. BOTH
ECMWF AND NAM SHOWING INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB
WITH PARCHED AIR MASS ABOVE 700. MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMP IMAGE FROM
SAT EVE AND BUOY/CMAN OBS HAVE MID-LAKE TEMPS STILL IN THE MID 60S
WHILE RECENT OFF SHORE WINDS HAVE COOLED SST INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S. DELTA-T EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 14-15C ON WED. SOME CONCERN
FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT -SHRA...BUT WITH FLUCTUATING LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND QUESTIONABLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE BELOW INVERSION...WL HOLD
OFF ON ADDING -SHRA AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL COOL 5 TO 12
DEGREES FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF AREA TO START OFF THE PERIOD. GFS HAS BEEN OUTLIER
LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN SHOWING STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY INTO WISCONSIN AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHILE
ECMWF...GEM AND UKMT CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKER WAVE MOVING MORE ELY
ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL MS VALLEY TOWARD EAST COAST.
SINCE LATEST GFS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH...AND CONCENSUS OF OTHER
LONG TERM GUIDANCE...WL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR THU AND REMOVE
SMALL POPS FROM IL BORDER AREA THU NGT AND FRI.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY DUE TO WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
BEGINS TO DIVERGE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ECMWF BRINGS
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THRU SRN WI SAT
NGT INTO SUN AND PHASES IT WITH SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE. ACTUALLY
PREFER GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS SLOWER PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM
SYSTEMS. HPC ALSO LEANING ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND PRODUCING THEIR
BLENDED FIELDS VALID AT 12Z/30. HENCE WL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR
DAY 7. SUNSHINE BUT WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN
SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATER TONIGHT...BUT GENERALLY APPEARS
THAT WINDS ALOFT WILL ONLY INCREASE TO HIGH ENOUGH VALUES BY
MORNING...WHEN WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL START COMING UP ALSO.
UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES...LOOKS FAR TOO MARGINAL AND FOR TOO SHORT
OF A TIME TO PUT IN TAFS.

.MARINE...

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL SEE GUSTS OF 25 OR 30 KNOTS
FROM MID-LATE MORNING AND INTO THE NIGHT. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON TOWARD SHEBOYGAN...POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH GALE WARNING
CRITERIA FOR A TIME. SEEMED TOO BORDERLINE FOR A WARNING...SO OPTED
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES FROM 14Z SAT
MORNING...TO 09Z SAT NIGHT. WAVES WILL NOT GET OUT OF HAND DUE TO
OFFSHORE NATURE OF WINDS...PEAKING AT 3 TO 5 FEET IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATERS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
WIZ046-047-051-052-056>059-062>065-067>072.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY
FOR LMZ643>646.

.CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM.

VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 200958
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
558 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GRT LKS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL PA LATE SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF FOG
IN THE VALLEYS...THE RESULT OF A COOL...CALM MORNING AND RELATIVELY
WARM RIVER/STREAM WATERS. LATEST 3KM HRRR SFC RH FIELDS SUGGEST
THE MOST PERSISTENT FOG WILL BE UNDER SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE PATCHES COULD LINGER UNTIL 14Z-15Z.

LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE LATER TODAY. GEFS 8H
TEMPS SHOW MODERATION OF THIS ONCE CHILLY AIR MASS WITH MEAN 8H
TEMPS NR 9C BY AFTN...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE U60S AND L70S.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DYING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVR MICHIGAN...WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN
PA TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIP. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO ARND 15 PCT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
W MTNS WITH ARRIVAL OF THIS WEAK FRONT. HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL THE LG
SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEST OF PA ASSOC WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH...SO
THE CHANCE OF ANY -SHRA WILL BE MINIMAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL DRAW HIGHER HUMIDITY BACK INTO THE REGION...RESULTING
IN A MUCH MILDER NIGHT...WITH MINS MOSTLY ARND 50F.

DYING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVR CENTRAL PA ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR SCT AFTN -SHRA. WILL PLACE AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS
/ARND 30 PCT/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...WHERE MDL DATA SHOWS
TONGUE OF HIGHER SFC-8H THTE.

DESPITE A PT-MOCLDY SKY...TEMPS SHOULD REACH NR SEASONAL NORMS
FRI AFTN DUE TO WARMER RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS SFC RIDGE PASSES
OFF THE COAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE SPREAD AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE LG
SCALE PATTERN OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATING UPPER LOW OVR ONTARIO GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA LATER SAT OR SAT NIGHT. AS MDL DATA HAS
COME INTO LINE W/REGARDS TO TIMING OF FRONT...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO LIKELY FOR SAT PM. MDL DATA HINTING THAT ENOUGH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF FROPA FOR MENTION OF THUNDER IN ADDITION TO
THE SHOWERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY W/REGARDS TO AMT OF PRE-FRONTAL
CLOUD COVER AND RESULTING CAPES. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LYR
SHEAR...COMBINED WITH EVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY...COULD POSE THE
THREAT OF SVR WX OVR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE SAT
AFTN.

AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS.
A RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY W WIND ACROSS THE
REGION...ACCENTUATING THE POST-FRONT CHILL. GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE M50S NW MTNS TO THE U60S SE.

FAIR BUT STILL COOL WEATHER APPEAR LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AND SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. GEFS AND ECMWF MEAN 8H TEMPS REMAIN BLW
SEASONAL NORMS BOTH MON AND TUE. SFC HIGH PRES SYS WILL PASS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MID WEEK...ALLOWING A MILDER SW FLOW TO
DEVELOP.

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS...
WITH SOME VALLEY FOG IMPACTING KIPT-KSEG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNRISE. DID NOT MENTION FOR KBFD AS WIND GRADIENT PICKS
UP A LITTLE HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. SURFACE WINDS DO PICK UP FROM
THE SOUTH...INCREASING TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN LIKELY SHOWERS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR BUT MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER MTNS.
MON...VFR...AS HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-010-
011.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 110356
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1056 PM CDT MON SEP 10 2012

.UPDATE...FEW IF ANY CHANGES NEEDED. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT COOLING. WEAK
UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CAUSING FEW PASSING CS.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MINOR LLWS EVENT WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS
REACHING 35 KTS BELOW 2K FEET. OTHERWISE A VFR PERIOD WITH GUSTY
WINDS ON TUESDAY. POSSIBLY STRONGER LLWS EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS AND WEAKENS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI.

.MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL MIXING
ENCROACHING ON THE VERY LOW LEVELS TO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MARINE ZONES.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED AT THE SHORE...MORE FREQUENT
AWAY FROM THE SHORE DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE
LAKE SURFACE. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS THE LAKE TEMP IN THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AROUND 20C.

HENCE PUSHED UP START TIME OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN
TWO ZONES TO PRESENT TIME...AND ALSO EXPANDED ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ZONE WHICH BEGINS TUESDAY MORNING.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ645-646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643-644.

$$
MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 070830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TEAM WITH INCREASING
BAROCLINICITY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO BRING NMRS SHRA TO THE
AREA TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIVE LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE REACHING 30 UNITS SPREADS INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS MRNG AND
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THE EAST THIS EVENING. LAYER FN
VECTOR RESPONSE TO 2D FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS ALSO SPREADS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. IN ADDITION...STRONG
ISENTROPIC OMEGA ON 305 THETA SFC SPREADS ACROSS SRN WI LATER THIS
MRNG THRU MID-AFTN.

SRN WI WL REMAIN ON NRN FRINGE OF PIVOTING AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL
JET FOCUSING CONVECTION OVER IA ATTM. SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD T FROM
THIS FORCING EXPD EARLY THIS MRNG. SHRA ALREADY BEGINNING TO
INCREASE TO THE NORTH AROUND KRST AND KONA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
FRONTOGENESIS. THINKING MORE SCT -SHRA EARLY THIS MRNG WL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE MRNG AND AFTERNOON...AND THEN DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CLOUDS TONIGHT AS THEY MAY HANG ON A BIT LONGER DUE TO BUILDING
THICKNESS TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN WI...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. WILL
CARRY T MENTION IN SOUTH DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED WEAK INSTABILITY
INTO THE AFTN.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ON WESTERN SIDE
OF ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. WINDOW FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL IS MID
AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DRY
AND STABLE SOUNDING WITH THE NAM ITSELF NOT PAINTING ANY QPF.
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW LIGHT PRECIP IN THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.
WEAK THERMAL RIDGE POKES ACROSS SRN/CNTRL WI BEFORE COLD ADVECTION
KICKS IN DURING THE EVENING.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STEADY NNW UPPER FLOW AS TROUGH AXIS PULLS FURTHER AWAY. 850
MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO IOWA WITH SURFACE HIGH BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS WI. 925 TEMPS AVERAGING 12-14C YIELDS HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD 500 MILLIBAR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE CWA THIS PERIOD.
SURFACE/850 HIGHS TO THE EAST. A WARMER SOUTHERLY REGIME KICKS IN.
925 TEMPS SLOW TO RESPOND MONDAY...BUT A SLIGHT WARMING NOTED. A
MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING ON TUESDAY WITH 925 TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOW 20S CELSIUS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MAIN QUESTION IS HANDLING POPS WITH MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
WITH FRONT. GEMNH AND GFS SUGGEST PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT WHILE 00Z
ECMWF FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THINGS DRY. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE FAVORABLE FOR RIPPLES TO RIDE ALONG BOUNDARY AND GENERATE SOME
PRECIP THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN IS A CONCERN. 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS
SUPPORTED DECENT POPS FOR THURSDAY WHILE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A
LOT DRIER LOOKING. CONSENSUS WAS REACHED TO TRIM THE POPS DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD YIELD TO
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRA THIS AFTN. LOW CLOUDS
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND INTO THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION. DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO ERODE LOW CLOUDS LATER
IN THE NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ISOLD T EXPCD WITH STRONG DYNAMICS
TODAY.

.MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE
MICHIGAN ALONG WITH A STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN
THE NEARSHORE WATERS 68-70F. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE DELTA-T OVER THE LAKE TO 12-13 DEGREES THIS
EVENING WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH INCREASING TO 15 TO 20K.
WATERSPOUT INDEX INCREASES TO 8 TO 10 UNITS. WL ADD MENTION OF
WATERSPOUTS TO HWO FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED
SHRA THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO OCNL SHRA THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY
FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 310839
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE..MEDIUM

WEAK UPSTREAM PRESSURE RISES AND SOUTHEAST CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TODAY. LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND LINGERING WARM AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS WL ACT AS CAP PREVENTING ISOLD PRECIP. HENCE WL CONTINUE
DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. TEMPS TRICKY AS HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR RAPID
COOLING IN EAST AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. UPWELLING OF
COOLER WATERS OVER THE NEARSHORE AREAS ON THURSDAY WL CONTRIBUTE TO
SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP ALONG SHORE AREAS THIS AFTN. TEMPS MAY FALL
20-30F IN SEVERAL HOURS FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. LARGE GRADIENT OF MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS CWA TODAY...FROM THE LOWER 80S FAR NORTHEAST
TO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTH.

FRONT SAGS JUST SOUTH OF WI/IL BORDER TONIGHT...WITH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING IN SOUTHERN CWA. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF ISAAC REMNANTS MAY BRING SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

..SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

DID NOT MAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL
EXPECTING REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAAC TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF
WISCONSIN. KEPT SOME LOW POPS TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER...AS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK NORTH INTO THE STATE.
EXPECTING SUNSHINE AT TIMES SAT AND SUN...SO KEPT HIGHS JUST A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS NEAR
THE LAKE UNDER EASTERLY WINDS.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WEAK FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE/LIFT FIELDS
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. 925 MB TEMPS
EVEN WARMER MONDAY...SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE.

LOOKS MAINLY DRY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES THROUGH.
MODELS DO TRY AND BRING SOME SHOWERS/STORMS IN FROM THE WEST LATER
IN THE DAY AS A WEAK WAVE APPROACHES...SO THREW SOME LOW POPS INTO
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. NO BIG PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND MONDAY
FRONT...SO KEPT 80S GOING FOR TUESDAY.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

KEPT POPS GOING FOR WED AND THU...AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. NEITHER SYSTEM LOOKS PROMISING FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL...BUT STRONGER LOW AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY AT LEAST
SUGGESTING SOME COOLER AIR MIGHT FINALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EARLY MORNING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKENS OVER SRN
WI. SFC WINDS WL ALSO INCREASE WITH INSOLATION THIS MRNG BEFORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS SFC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH SRN WI.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WL REMAIN TIGHTEST OVER KENW...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WINDS INTO THE EARLY AFTN. RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NNE ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KMKE AND KENW BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHWARD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED AS FRONT SLIPS THROUGH WITH CAPPING INVERSION. HENCE HELD
OFF ON ANY ISOLD PRECIP. INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ISAAC
REMNANTS APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRING SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD.

.MARINE...LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT MAY RESULT IN WIND GUSTS BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY
LEVELS OVER SHORE AREAS FROM WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR FOR 1-3
HOURS LATER THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
AND EXPECTED BRIEF PERIOD...WL HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR
LMZ646 AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONT WL RESULT IN WINDS RAPIDLY TURNING
TO THE NE LATER TODAY. TIME FRAME FOR WIND SHIFT FROM SGNW3 TO
PWAW3 BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z...AND MLWW3 TO KNSW3 FROM 18Z TO 21Z.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY RESULTED IN UPWELLING EVENT OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS WATER TEMPS HAVE
COOLED INTO THE 50S FROM SHEBOYGAN SOUTH TO MILWAUKEE. AS WINDS
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...THESE COOL WATER TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY
SOMEWHAT...BUT WL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW FAR LAKESHORE TEMPS
DROP IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. UPSTREAM
DEWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S COULD PRODUCE SOME HAZE OR LIGHT FOG AS
IT CROSSES COOLER UPWELLING WATERS AS WELL...BUT TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 311026
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
626 AM EDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE
SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH A COLD
FRONT AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING TYPICAL DENDRITIC PATTERN
OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS NORTH OF I-80. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BTWN
12Z-14Z.

THE PEAK OF THIS BOUT OF LATE SUMMER WARMTH WILL OCCUR TODAY AS
THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. TIGHTENING LLVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE
WITH DEEP VERTICAL MIXING /UP TO 5-6 KFT AGL/ TO CREATE A GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND OF 10-20 KTS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.

ALTHOUGH WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS TO THE MID 50S TO NEAR
60F FRIDAY...THEY SHOULD DECREASE A FEW DEG F DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS AS THE VERTICAL MIXING DEEPENS...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL PWAT AIR OF LESS THAN ONE INCH PERSISTS.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH GEFS MEAN 850 MB TEMPS NR 20C
/OR PLUS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS/ WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
M80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 90F
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. THESE READINGS ARE A SOLID +10-15F ABV
LATE AUG NORMALS BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGS SHY OF HISTORICAL RECORDS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE PA/NY BORDER THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...TIME OF ARRIVAL AFTER SUNSET...COMBINED WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT NOTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGH BASED...SCT-
BKN STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN TIER THIS EVENING WITH A LONE
SPRINKLE POSSIBLE.

AS FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE
OUT A LATE NIGHT SHRA ACROSS EXTREME SW PA...WHERE PWATS PROGGED
TO BE MUCH HIGHER. INCREASING DWPTS...A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND A
BREEZE WILL RESULT IN A MILDER NIGHT THAN THOSE RECENTLY WITH LOWS
FROM THE M50S N MTNS...TO U60S S TIER.

COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WORKING IN NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD SUPPLY MOST OF CENTRAL PA WITH MSUNNY AND STILL WARM WX.
HOWEVER...THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY SEE LINGERING CLOUDS IN
VICINITY OF FRONT ALONG WITH THE CHC OF A SHRA OR TSRA.

GEFS MEAN 850MB TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM
NEAR 80F OVR THE N MTNS...TO NR 90F IN THE VALLEYS NR THE MASON
DIXON LINE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE DRAW REMNANTS OF ISSAC EASTWARD THRU
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND...THEN THRU PA EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS IT MERGES WITH COLD FRONT PRESSING SOUTH FROM THE GRT LKS. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL
INTO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE MOST LIKELY DAY OF FROPA. ENSEMBLE DATA AND ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS A LOW
PROBABILITY.

MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVES
CROSSING S-CENTRAL CANADA IN THE LOW AMPLITUDE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THE NCEP GFS/GEFS DATA REMAINS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF HGT FALLS/PCPN THRU THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON A NEAR EVEN
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GMOS/HPC GRIDS WHICH FOCUSES THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL/HIGHEST POPS ON TUE.

BY NEXT WED-THUR...THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT IN A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GRT LKS/MISS VALLEY. MOIST SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE CHC OF SHOWERS LATE WEEK.

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA INTO SAT
NIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT /YET MOIST/
SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME PATCHY MVFR
FOG - MAINLY IN THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN MTNS - TOWARD
MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IS POSS IN THE LOWER SUSQ JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE.

ANY FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY...LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS DO PICK
UP FROM THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH
GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH.

OUTLOOK...
FRI/FRI NIGHT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT...AM FOG POSS W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTHWESTERN
PENN...NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF KAOO AND KJST.

SUN...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTH.

MON AND TUE...SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA. PERIODS OF
LOW CIGS POSS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 291634 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1134 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012

.UPDATE...

A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE IN THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO HIGH TEMPS
AND SKY COVER. OVERALL...A BENIGN WX DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH SFC
HIGH OVER MICHIGAN AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING OCCURRING TODAY. SKY COVER
WAS DECREASED A BIT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...AND ADJUSTED FOR
DIURNAL CU POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED ALTOCU ARE OBSERVED
ON VIS SAT AT AROUND 80-100 HFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER GIVEN SOUNDINGS AND WEAK
WAA. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES GIVEN THIS AND DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW DIURNAL CU.

HIGHS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL DUE TO RECENT CHANGES IN SKY AND 925
HPA TEMPS. 925 HPA TEMPS RANGED GENERALLY FROM 26 C FAR WEST TO 22 C
FAR EAST...WHICH CORRESPOND TO 90 F TO 84 F. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE
ADEQUATE MIXING UP TO AT LEAST 900 HPA GIVEN SOUNDINGS...THERE WILL
BE AN ON-SHORE FLOW. AS SUCH...WITH LAKE TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S AS
SEEN FROM MODIS 8-DAY SST...DIDN\T GO THAT HIGH IN THE FAR EAST.
TEMPS OVER CENTRAL CWA WERE RAISED THOUGH...2-4 DEGREES F.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THEN...MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER OVERNIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...PREVENTING FOG FORMATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT MSN TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET FORMS. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR WOULD BE MARGINAL...AS THE NAM IS
SHOWING CLOSE TO OR JUST UNDER 30 KTS OF WIND DIFFERENCE AND ABOUT
A 20 DEGREE DIRECTION CHANGE. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM

WARM AIR ADVECTION FOCUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF CWA EARLY
THIS MRNG. LOW LEVELS...BELOW 10K FEET EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRIER.
ALSO...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON 310 THETA SURFACE REMAIN
OVER 200MB OVER WESTERN CWA THIS MRNG WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
FLOW. PREDOMINANCE OF MESO-SCALE MODELS KEEP ANY ACTIVITY WEST OF
CWA. NOT IMPOSSIBLE AN ISOLD -SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR WEST...BUT
WL ROLL DICE AND REMOVE SMALL POPS IN WEST. OTHERWISE EXPECT PATCHY
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PUSH SOUTH OF AREA
LATER TODAY. BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TEMPS WARMER THAN
TUESDAY. FEW WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY CLIMB TO NEAR 90F.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT AS REMNANTS OF
ISAAC PUSHES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TIGHTENING
GRADIENT WL RESULT IN MORE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD WITH LESS THREAT FOR FOG.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD 591-594DM UPPER RIDGE WITH WARM SOUTHWEST 850/925 WINDS. 850
TEMPS 23-24C. TAKING ECMWF AS COMPROMISE ON 925 THERMAL FIELD YIELDS
26C IN THE FAR SE TO NEAR 29C IN THE FAR NW CWA. SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ADEQUATE MIXING. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 90S. IN SOME CASES THE GFS MOS DEW POINTS
ARE 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NAM MOS. GIVEN THE PARCHED LOOK TO
THE SOUNDINGS WILL CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER LOOK OF THE NAM.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. 925 THERMAL FIELD SUPPRESSES
HIGHEST TEMPS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA WITH A MIN IN THE NE
CWA...THANKS TO A WEAK FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL
VERY TOASTY WITH 90 PLUS INLAND TEMPS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
EYES WILL BE ON THE TRACK AND SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ISAAC. 00Z GEM AND 00Z GFS KEEP
IT SOUTH. 12Z ECMWF WAS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE PUSH
INTO SRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE 00Z RUN HAS TRENDED TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP OUT
OF SOUTHERN WI. BLENDED POPS TO MESH WITH DVN AND LOT. IF MODELS
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY IN THIS SOUTHERN SOLUTION LATER FORECASTS MAY
BE ABLE TO GO DRY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST/EAST WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
AROUND MONDAY. APPEARS UPPER FLOW MAY GO ANTICYCLONIC TUESDAY WITH
A SURFACE HIGH IN THE MIX TOO...SO A TREND TOWARDS DRY FOR TUESDAY
APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. WILL RIDE WITH THE ALLBLEND POPS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF FOG PERIOD AT KENW
AND KUES EARLY THIS MRNG DUE TO LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS BELOW INVERSION. ANY FOG SHOULD THIN QUICKLY AFTER 12Z.
OTHERWISE...A VFR PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. PATCHY
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MRNG FROM WEAK UPSTREAM WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD THIN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS. INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.

MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG LOW LEVEL
MIXING OVER INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIND GUSTS REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL
SOME SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NAM AND GFS PERTAINING TO
STRENGTH OF PRESSURE GRADIENT. HENCE PER COORD WITH GRB...WL LET
NEXT SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK AT EXPECTED WIND GUSTS ON THURSDAY
BEFORE PULLING TRIGGER ON SMALL CRAFT ADVY.

FIRE WEATHER...WEATHER CRITERIA FOR DETERMINING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED ON THURSDAY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH 15 MPH OR HIGHER. AFTERNOON RH
WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OR LOWER AND TEMPS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 90S. HOWEVER CFFDRS BUILD-UP INDEX REMAINS WELL BELOW 100
WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AFTER GREEN-UP.
WI-DNR WILL BE REASSESSING FUEL MOISTURE THIS MRNG FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI FOR THU.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ET/MEB
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KGRB 271955
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
255 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK...WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.

PRETTY TYPICAL UPPER PATTERN FOR LATE SUMMER...WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES PULLED WAY N ACRS SRN CANADA. UPR RIDGE OUT NR THE WEST
COAST WL BUILD/EXPAND EWD ACRS THE AREA DURING THE WEEK. NOT
GETTING A REAL CLEAR PICTURE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN LATE
IN THE FCST PERIOD AND BEYOND...BUT IT SEEMS LIKELY WESTERLIES WL
SAG SWD INTO THE CONUS AGAIN...WITH LNGWV TROF POSSIBLY TRYING TO
GET RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE E.

THE PATTERN WL BE A VERY WARM AND DRY ONE FOR MOST OF THE FCST
PERIOD...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE PROSPECT
FOR SIG PCPN. PCPN CHCS MAY START TO INCR LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
COOL FRONT SAGS SWD INTO THE AREA...THOUGH THAT DOES NOT REALLY
HAVE THE LOOK OF A GOOD PCPN PRODUCER EITHER.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TNGT/TUE. QUIET WX EXPECTED. SOME FG WL PROBABLY
FORM AGAIN TNGT. BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS
MORNING...AND THE DENSE FG WL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO LOCALIZED FOG
BANKS IN LOW-LYING AREAS AND NR STREAMS AND RIVERS. WL CARRY AS
PATCHY FG IN THE FCST.

CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS SUPPORTED TAKING TEMPS A LITTLE BLO THE
LOWER GUID VALUES...ESP IN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL COOL SPOTS. 850 MB
TEMPS TUE WL BE SIMILAR TO TDA...SO STAYED CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE
FOR MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WL BE THE LAKESHORE. SINCE
WE WON/T MIX INTO NWLY FLOW ALOFT TOMORROW...LAKE BREEZE WL WORK
INLAND DURING THE AFTN. SO EDGED TEMPS DOWN LAKESIDE...ESP FM MTW-
JUST N OF SUE WHERE MODIS STLT IMAGERY INDICATED LAKE SURFACE
TEMPS HAD FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S DUE TO UPWELLING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME LOCATIONS SEE NEW RECORD
HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE BEST UPPER
DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE. A COOLING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS FALLING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES DUE TO THE UNKNOWN PATH OF
ISAAC.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACRS THE
AREA NOW AND WL CONT INTO TNGT. STILL LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MIFG TO FORM LATE TNGT. COVERAGE OF THE FG
SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT AS IT WAS THIS MORNING...BUT VSBYS WL
PROBABLY BE AFFECTED ENOUGH IN SOME AREAS TO WARRANT INCLUSION AS
TEMPO GROUP IN RHI/CWA/GRB/AUW TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
SKOWRONSKI/MG

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 270237
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
937 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.UPDATE...PUSH OF DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE
RESULTING IN THINNING LOW-MID CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. UPSTREAM
SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOT CHANGING MUCH BEHIND WEAK SURFACE
FRONT...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME OF DAY. HOWEVER STILL
EXPECT INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. QUITE A BIT OF DRIER AIR
AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN...HENCE WL HOLD OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVY AND
KEEP MENTION OF DENSE FOG MORE PATCHY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. HOWEVER
ENOUGH CONCERN FOR DENSE FOG TO ISSUE SPS.

ALSO THINKING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF DRIER AIR WILL PRECLUDE
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS WITH FOG THE MAIN THREAT.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...WL
BRING VSBY IN TAF SITES CLOSE TO ALTERNATE LANDING MINIMUMS IN
EXPECTED FOG LATER TONIGHT. MAY EVEN TAKE VSBYS DOWN TO AIRFIELD
LANDING MINIMUMS AT KENW FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

.MARINE...SHEBOYGAN WEBCAMS SHOWED AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAD
DEVELOPED OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. INTERESTING SINCE RECENT
MODIS IMAGERY SHOWED LAKE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S...OFF
SHORE. PERHAPS THE RECENT SOUTH WINDS RESULTED IN SOME UPWELLING
OF COOLER WATERS CLOSE TO SHORE. THERE WERE A FEW PIXELS OF LOW
60S IN THE MODIS SST PASS FROM 0709Z/SUN. WOULD THINK AREAS OF
DENSE FOG WOULD CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS TURN MORE OFFSHORE DURING THE
NIGHT...WITH WINDS MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS. FOR THIS REASON...HELD
OFF ON MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY FOR NOW.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KEKA 241648
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
948 AM PDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NIGHT
AND MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH.

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO ADD
AREAS OF SMOKE TO MUCH OF INTERIOR HUMBOLDT...DEL NORTE AND
TRINITY COUNTIES. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON WESTERLIES WILL PUSH THE
SMOKE BACK TO THE EAST. TONIGHT EXPECT SMOKE WILL RETURN IN A
FAIRLY SIMILAR FASHION. ALSO MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CLOUD
COVER. MKK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM PDT FRI AUG 24 2012/

DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
ATTM WITH UPPER RIDGE PREVAILING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SEASONAL TEMPS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E SAT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE NE PAC. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THIS TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NW U.S. THROUGH WED BEFORE SHIFTING INLAND. HOWEVER...
MODELS SHOW ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A GENERAL MODEL BLEND TO ACCOUNT
FOR DIFFERENCES. ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN ATTM...A
COOLER WX PATTERN WITH GREATER COASTAL FG/STRATUS COVERAGE IS IN
STORE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST PACKAGE.
EARLIER WINDSAT PASS VERIFIES WELL AGAINST GRIDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND SAT. DID EXTEND THE N OFFSHORE GALE
WARNING 3 HOURS WHICH BLENDS BETTER WITH MFR AND FORECAST WIND
GUSTS. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KT ARE POSSIBLE THRU TODAY OVER THE
EXTREME N PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS LESS
THAN 5 FT ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
/SEC

AVIATION...06Z MODIS PASS SHOWED SOME FG IN THE VAN DUZEN RIVER
VALLEY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS REST OF CWA. EXPECT
PERSISTENCE TO RULE THE DAY AS UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME PATCHY FG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AROUND
SUNRISE BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME MVFR VSBY AROUND ROUND VALLEY
DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE N PASS FIRE.

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY PZZ450-455.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ470.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON PZZ475.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KEKA 241033
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
333 AM PDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
ATTM WITH UPPER RIDGE PREVAILING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SEASONAL TEMPS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E SAT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE NE PAC. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THIS TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NW U.S. THROUGH WED BEFORE SHIFTING INLAND. HOWEVER...
MODELS SHOW ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A GENERAL MODEL BLEND TO ACCOUNT
FOR DIFFERENCES. ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN ATTM...A
COOLER WX PATTERN WITH GREATER COASTAL FG/STRATUS COVERAGE IS IN
STORE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST PACKAGE.
EARLIER WINDSAT PASS VERIFIES WELL AGAINST GRIDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND SAT. DID EXTEND THE N OFFSHORE GALE
WARNING 3 HOURS WHICH BLENDS BETTER WITH MFR AND FORECAST WIND
GUSTS. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KT ARE POSSIBLE THRU TODAY OVER THE
EXTREME N PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS LESS
THAN 5 FT ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
/SEC
&&

.AVIATION...06Z MODIS PASS SHOWED SOME FG IN THE VAN DUZEN RIVER
VALLEY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS REST OF CWA. EXPECT
PERSISTENCE TO RULE THE DAY AS UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME PATCHY FG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AROUND
SUNRISE BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME MVFR VSBY AROUND ROUND VALLEY
DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE N PASS FIRE.
&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY PZZ450-455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON PZZ475.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 241012
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
612 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AN
UPPER LOW OVR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVR THE WEEKEND. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A DEEP
TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST AND RESULTING NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ISAAC
WELL TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENTRITIC PATTERN OF
VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BTWN
12Z-14Z. IR SATL TRENDS AND MDL DATA SUGGEST CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM NORTHWARD UP EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER TROF AXIS...AFFECTING
THE EASTERN HALF OF PA TODAY. VARYING OPACITY OF HIGH CLOUD SHIELD
WILL CAUSE SKIES TO RANGE FROM MCLDY TO MSUNNY TODAY ACROSS THE SE
HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE THE NW HALF REMAINS MAINLY SUNNY.

SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVR CENTRAL PA...ENSURING DRY WX OVR MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED PM SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE PWATS A BIT
HIGHER. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS BLW 10PCT. TODAY SHOULD BE
ANOTHER FAIRLY WARM DAY FOR LATE AUGUST. MDL 8H TEMPS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAXES IN THE L/M80S.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LGT WIND AND A MCLEAR SKY ACROSS THE W MTNS WILL LIKELY YIELD MORE
PATCHY VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...BACKING UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW MAY
CAUSE CIRRUS TO WORK WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...DAMPENING
THE RAD COOLING AND POTENTIAL OF FOG.

AS UPPER LOW CREEPS UP THE APPALACHIANS...EXPECT INCREASINGLY
MOIST SERLY FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH. THE FACE OF
1-2.5SIGMA 850 HPA WINDS IMPLIES INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASED
CHANCE SHOWERS IN SERN AREAS. TEMP FCST PROBLEMATIC...AS MDLS
DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO ARRIVAL OF CLOUD/SHRA. FOR NOW GONE WITH
HIGHS BTWN THE M70S-L80S. HOWEVER...COULD EASILY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER OR COOLER.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE...ALL TRACKING UPPER LOW
UP THE APPALACHIANS SAT NIGHT TO NR THE MASON DIXON LINE ON
SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
CENTRAL PA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS ASSOCIATED MOIST...EASTERLY
LL JET LIFTS THRU. LATEST GEFS DATA DRAWS BAND OF LL EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES AND ASSOC POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES INTO SOUTHERN PA SAT
NIGHT...THEN THE REST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED POPS
UPWARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OTHER CHANGE TO FCST WAS TO LOWER
MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY DUE TO EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS AND
SHRA.

RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS BULK OF MDL
DATA PUSH REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST MONDAY...THEN TRACK NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY.
SHRA/TSRA COULD ACCOMPANY THE FROPA...THEN DRY WX APPEARS LIKELY
FOR WED-THU WHEN ENSEMBLE AND OPER MDL DATA INDICATE STRONG
RIDGE AND LOW PWATS OVERSPREADING THE STATE.

MOST MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST...BRING
ISAAC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT...THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. HOWEVER THE BULK OF SOLUTIONS
SLOW REMNANTS DOWN AND TRACK THEM INTO THE MISS VALLEY. WHICHEVER
TRACK IT EVENTUALLY TAKES...WE/LL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE ON WHERE
THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM FINALLY ENDS UP.

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VALLEY FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS AT MOST AIRFIELDS TO MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME SPOTTY IFR/LIFR AT KIPT AND KBFD. KLNS MAY
ALSO BRIEFLY DIP TO IFR CONTITIONS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FOG
IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH MORE MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR
CONDITIONS.

EASTERLY FLOW MAY BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SOME LOWER STRATUS BUILDING
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR EXCEPT AM VALLEY FOG.
SAT NIGHT...SHRA/STRATUS POSS SE...LATE NIGHT FOG NRN VALLEYS.
SUN...SHRA/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST.
MON...SHRA/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY...MAINLY EAST.
MON NIGHT-TUE...CFRONT APPCHS FM NW. SHRA/TSRA POSS. MAINLY VFR.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...JUNG

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 230840
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
440 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL WEAKEN AND A RIDGE WILL FORM
TO OUR NORTHEAST. A GRADUAL WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND UNTIL A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES A FRONT INTO PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY OR
TUESDAY...OUR BEST CHANCE AT RAIN...THE TROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH TS ISAAC
ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND LIKELY KEEP IT AND MOST OF THE
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF FOG
IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PA WHILE A PATCH OF CIRRUS
STREAMS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA IN ASSOC WITH SHORTWAVE
LIFTING UP THE E COAST.

VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BTWN 12Z-14Z...LEAVING A MSUNNY SKY FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. SFC HIGH PRES OVR THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
VERY LGT WINDS. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS ARND 15C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPS BTWN 80-85F.

TRANQUIL...SEASONABLE WX WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TOWARD DAWN...MAINLY IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS NORTH OF I-80.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH
NEWFOUNDLAND BRINGING A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE AREA...PROVIDING
MOSTLY FAIR WX.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING FAIR
WEATHER. AN H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FAVORING A GRADUAL WARM TREND.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WITH SIGNIFICANT HEATING AND
POSSIBLE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN
FACTOR IS HOW EAST THE MOISTURE ADVECTS. THE MODELS ARE IN
ALIGNMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH IS WHEN THE EC BEGINS TO OUTRUN
THE GFS. THE EC MOVES IT'S UPPER LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH...WHERE
THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH EXTENDED THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

GEFS AND CMCEFS SUGGEST A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MONDAY-
TUESDAY WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY.

THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE SHOULD INTERACT WITH TC ISAAC
IN THE TUES-WED TIME-FRAME. AT THIS TIME THE PW PLUME IS FORECAST
TO BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS WE ARE PROJECTED TO BE
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PERHAPS WE WILL BE SAVED BY THE FRONT.

THE TROUGHS MERGE AND WE ARE IN A MEAN TROUGH. IMPRESSIVE
FEATURES AROUND MID-WEEK WILL INCLUDE THE PW PLUME AND
CIRCULATION WITH ISAAC...LIKELY TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...AND A
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE 5940M CLOSED 500 HPA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
USA. GOING TO BE VERY HOT UNDER THAT RIDGE AND WET IN THE MOISTURE
PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC. ALAS WE WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF BEING RELATIVELY DRY AND LOCALLY BORING.

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
11-3.9U SATL IMAGERY SHOWS FOG/LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING THRU THE DEEP
RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF NORTH CENTRAL PA AT 08Z. CONTINUED
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM EXTENT OF THE FOG
BTWN 10Z-11Z. THE RIDGETOP LOCATION AT JST SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
FOG ISSUES THERE AND PATCH OF HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS PASSING OVR THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SIG VIS RESTRICTIONS AT
MDT/LNS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF DIP TO IFR CONDS REMAINS POSSIBLE AT
THE REMAINING CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS BTWN 09Z-12Z.

ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BTWN 12Z-13Z. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVR THE
REGION...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF VFR CONDS AND LGT
WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT
TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE ARND DAWN.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
SUN...SHRA/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE LATE...MAINLY EAST.
MON...SHRA/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY...MAINLY EAST.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KABQ 120930
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MDT SUN AUG 12 2012

.DISCUSSION...
AT 09Z THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM NEAR CLINES
CORNERS EAST TO SOUTH OF TUCUMCARI. THERE IS SOME DECENT MOMENTUM
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH NEAR 20 KTS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
RISING ABOUT 5F BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT EXTENDS UP TO ABOUT
700MB PER 00Z NAM BUFKIT AT KTCC AND KLVS. LATEST MODIS NIGHT-TIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS LINING UP WITH
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF NM. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH AND WEST
THRU THIS AFTERNOON AND LINE UP WELL WITH THE MID LEVEL MOIST
INSTABILITY AXIS TO PRODUCE SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
CENTRAL NM. RAISED POPS EVEN FURTHER FOR THE EAST SLOPES. TEMPS
WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER AFTER SATURDAYS RECORD HIGHS ACROSS THE
NE AND E CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE BIG CHALLENGE WILL BE TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY WITH PLACEMENT OF
HIGHEST POPS AND QPF. THE GFS DEPICTS LARGE AREAS OF QPF ALONG THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN MOVING SOUTH EACH EVENING WHERE OTHER MODELS ARE
LESS BULLISH WITH AMOUNTS. HPC 12HR QPF LINES UP WELL WITH GFS SO
HAVE RAISED POPS ANOTHER FEW POINTS FOR AREAS IN VCNTY OF CENTRAL
MT CHAIN THRU TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN 5 TO 10F AREAWIDE
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO
PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFIC AREA THAT WOULD RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT...SO WILL LEAVE OUT HEAVY WORDING FROM
ZONES FOR NOW.

CONFIDENCE ON THE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THRU THE WEEKEND IS
BEGINNING TO CREEP INTO THE MODERATE CATEGORY AS MODELS ARE GETTING
A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TROUGH PASSAGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. THE H5 RIDGE WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO ABOUT 588DM AND
SHIFTED SW INTO SW NM/SE AZ BY WEDNESDAY. RECYCLE MODE WILL TAKE
OVER IN THIS PATTERN WITH NW FLOW OVER THE STATE. GUIDANCE SHOWS
ANOTHER DECENT BACK DOOR FRONT PLOWING SOUTH INTO THE E PLAINS
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BECOME ANOTHER FOCUS FOR INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE. THE
BIG QUESTION IS STILL WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL END UP OVER
NM AS A DEEP TROPICAL WAVE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE NORTH ACROSS MEXICO.
GUYER

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...INCREASING HUMIDITIES SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS MORN AND COOLING
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NE AND PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL NM. AFTN
HIGH TEMPS THOUGH STILL EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY E CENTRAL NM WHERE MAXIMUMS STILL
LIKELY TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. WITH FRONT COZIED UP TO
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THIS AFTN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...AND WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL...WILL INCREASE FROM THERE
EAST THIS AFTN AND EVE. FRONT WILL MOVE WEST THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TOWARD THE ARIZONA BORDER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REPLENISHMENT SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE A BIT MORE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON MON COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS FOR MOST OF N
AND CENTRAL NM AND WITH LARGER WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS. MOST
CERTAINLY BETTER NIGHTTIME RH RECOVERIES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF FCST
AREA TONIGHT AND MORE SO MON NIGHT.

RECYCLING OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP TUE WITH THAT TREND CONTINUING THROUGH WED...THOUGH
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WED. EVEN STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MARCHES INTO NE NM ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS ONE MAY BE
STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT E NM FRONT. ANOTHER MOISTURE INTRUSION
BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD KICK UP THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN AND COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST 5 TO 15
DEGREES OF FURTHER COOLING...IF NOT MORE. 43

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A ESE LOW LEVEL
FLOW LATER SUNDAY AT BOTH KABQ AND KSAF...WITH AN EAST GAP WIND
FORECAST AT KABQ SUNDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH AWW CRITERIA WIND GUSTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED SUNDAY EVENING AT KABQ...GUSTS NEAR 30KTS ARE
LIKELY. 11

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 96 65 93 64 / 10 30 20 30
DULCE........................... 89 52 87 52 / 20 40 40 30
CUBA............................ 94 53 88 53 / 20 60 50 40
GALLUP.......................... 92 58 88 58 / 20 30 20 30
EL MORRO........................ 86 53 80 54 / 30 30 50 40
GRANTS.......................... 91 54 85 53 / 30 30 50 40
QUEMADO......................... 90 56 91 54 / 30 30 30 30
GLENWOOD........................ 95 58 92 57 / 10 20 20 20
CHAMA........................... 82 52 78 52 / 40 50 60 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 86 59 83 57 / 30 60 60 40
PECOS........................... 80 58 78 58 / 60 60 50 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 76 54 75 51 / 50 50 50 40
RED RIVER....................... 72 49 68 49 / 60 60 60 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 74 47 71 47 / 60 60 60 50
TAOS............................ 86 53 83 53 / 30 50 50 40
MORA............................ 76 55 73 56 / 60 50 60 40
ESPANOLA........................ 92 59 88 58 / 10 40 40 40
SANTA FE........................ 88 58 83 57 / 30 50 40 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 92 61 85 60 / 30 50 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 92 63 89 62 / 10 50 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 95 67 91 65 / 5 40 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 97 65 92 62 / 5 40 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 96 65 92 65 / 5 50 30 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 95 65 91 64 / 5 40 30 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 95 65 91 64 / 5 50 40 40
SOCORRO......................... 98 65 96 63 / 5 30 40 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 89 56 86 58 / 50 60 50 40
TIJERAS......................... 92 59 89 58 / 30 50 40 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 89 59 84 59 / 50 60 50 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 87 57 82 58 / 60 60 60 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 91 59 86 59 / 50 50 50 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 95 63 90 63 / 30 40 40 30
RUIDOSO......................... 86 57 80 58 / 50 40 60 30
CAPULIN......................... 82 56 83 56 / 30 20 40 40
RATON........................... 88 58 90 60 / 40 30 30 40
SPRINGER........................ 87 61 86 62 / 40 30 30 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 83 57 82 58 / 60 50 60 40
CLAYTON......................... 90 62 89 64 / 20 20 20 30
ROY............................. 85 65 87 65 / 20 20 30 30
CONCHAS......................... 93 69 92 70 / 20 30 20 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 96 67 94 68 / 20 40 20 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 98 70 96 72 / 20 20 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 96 67 92 69 / 20 20 20 20
PORTALES........................ 98 68 94 69 / 20 20 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 97 69 93 71 / 20 40 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 101 71 96 71 / 20 30 20 20
PICACHO......................... 96 61 90 61 / 20 40 30 20
ELK............................. 92 58 85 58 / 40 40 30 20

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

GUYER/43/11

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KABQ 090918
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
318 AM MDT THU AUG 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION THAT PUSHED SOUTH
ACROSS THE E PLAINS WILL EXPAND SOUTHWEST AND ENVELOP NEARLY THE
ENTIRE STATE TODAY. CIRA BLENDED PERCENT OF NORMAL PWAT IMAGERY
INDICATES VALUES NEAR 75PCT OF NORMAL ACROSS A VAST AREA OF THE
FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THE 00Z RAOB AT KAMA SHOWS EXTREMELY
DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE 600MB WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT KABQ ABOVE
500MB. EXPERIMENTAL MODIS RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY FROM NASA SPORT THIS
MORNING SHOWS THIS VERY WELL. THE BULK OF 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE PICKS
UP ON THIS FEATURE AS WELL AND WAS TEMPTED TO REMOVE JUST ABOUT ALL
POPS FROM THE FORECAST TODAY...HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ALONG THE AZ BORDER AND THE NW MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL TREND
UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVER WEDNESDAYS HIGHS STATEWIDE.

THE CURRENT 597DM H5 HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL WEAKEN TO
594DM FRIDAY AND SAG SLIGHTLY SOUTH. THE UPPER DRY WEDGE WILL
ROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH INTO AZ WHILE A WEAK
VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE SALT LAKE AREA DIVES SE ACROSS
COLORADO AND NE NM ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE NAM IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE WHEREAS MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS ON THE DRIER SIDE. CONTINUED TREND
FROM DAY SHIFT TO BACK OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
WEAKENING THE H5 RIDGE EVEN FURTHER TO 592DM. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN NW FLOW OVER THE NE PLAINS SO FOCUS FOR
GREATEST STORM COVERAGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH DOWN THE FRONT RANGE BEHIND THIS EXITING
UPPER TROUGH WILL FORCE A FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY.
THIS FRONT IS TRENDING MORE VIGOROUS OVER THE PAST COUPLE MODEL
RUNS AND APPEARS TO BE WETTER THAN OUR LAST FRONT OVER THIS PAST
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE WEST COAST FORCING THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EAST TOWARD TX. THIS MAY POTENTIALLY FORCE A PERIOD OF BETTER
STORM CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVING WEST INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE THEN SLIDES NORTH AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. A DRY SLOT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL
MONSOON BURST PATTERN TO FINISH OFF NEXT WEEK. GUYER

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS...AND A PRONOUNCED REGION OF VARY DRY MID AND LOW LEVEL AIR
SPREADING AROUND THE HIGH FROM EASTERN NM TO SOUTHWESTERN NM...THERE
IS A MEAGER CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION TODAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME RECYCLED MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH COULD RESULT IN A TENTH
OR TWO OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION FROM A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILAR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...EXCEPT THE DRIEST MID LEVEL AIR WILL
SHIFT OVER SE AZ BY THEN...AND THE POCKET OF RECYCLED MOISTURE COULD
SPREAD TO INCLUDE NE NM WITH A MIX OF WET AND RELATIVELY DRY STORMS.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CRATER TO THE LOW TEENS AT MANY LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE NOTED
ACROSS THE NE PLAINS FRIDAY...WHERE READINGS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO THE
UPPER TEENS. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND DRY
AIR...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL VARY FROM A FEW
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ELONGATE ALONG AN AXIS FROM
N CENTRAL AZ TO S CENTRAL NM. THE RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT OVER NE
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO CROSS WITH AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION SATURDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AIDING THE
CONVECTION WILL BE A MOISTER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT MAY DROP INTO
THE FAR NE PLAINS AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WONT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS UNTIL SUNDAY...WHEN AIDED BY OUTFLOWS FROM
ANOTHER UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...IT WILL PUSH INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WITH A MODESTLY GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
KEEP THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ACTIVE WITH
WETTING THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY...PARTS OF THE PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS AROUND
12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. READINGS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
LOCATIONS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BOOST
MIN HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

GFS AND ECMWF NOW INDICATE THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER SOUTHERN NM...THEN OVER TX...DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. AS MOISTURE RECYCLES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED AND SOMEWHAT WETTING STORMS. DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK...MONSOON MOISTURE MAY WORK ITS WAY
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WITH AN
EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. THIS WOULD CAUSE GREATER WETTING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. 44

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
RIDGE DOMINATING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SITTING OVER CENTRAL COLORADO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM 19Z ONWARD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN HALF OF NM...AND CARRIED IN TAFS AT
FMN...GUP...AND SAF. EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL REDUCE THUNDER COVERAGE NEAR ABQ
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS AND VIZ THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SHY

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 97 68 96 65 / 5 10 10 10
DULCE........................... 90 54 89 53 / 10 10 20 20
CUBA............................ 91 56 91 56 / 5 5 10 10
GALLUP.......................... 92 59 89 60 / 10 10 5 5
EL MORRO........................ 83 55 81 57 / 20 20 10 5
GRANTS.......................... 90 56 90 59 / 5 5 5 5
QUEMADO......................... 91 55 90 56 / 20 20 10 5
GLENWOOD........................ 92 56 90 56 / 10 10 0 0
CHAMA........................... 84 52 83 51 / 30 30 30 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 87 60 87 59 / 5 5 10 10
PECOS........................... 84 60 82 60 / 5 5 10 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 83 55 81 53 / 20 20 20 30
RED RIVER....................... 76 50 76 50 / 20 20 30 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 80 50 78 50 / 20 20 30 30
TAOS............................ 88 55 85 54 / 10 10 20 20
MORA............................ 81 57 79 57 / 10 10 10 20
ESPANOLA........................ 94 59 93 59 / 5 5 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 88 61 87 61 / 5 5 10 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 94 63 91 63 / 5 5 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 93 65 92 66 / 0 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 95 67 94 67 / 0 5 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 97 63 97 64 / 0 5 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 97 65 97 66 / 0 5 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 95 63 94 64 / 0 5 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 98 65 96 66 / 0 5 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 99 65 99 67 / 0 5 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 90 60 90 60 / 5 5 5 10
TIJERAS......................... 93 60 93 60 / 5 5 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 88 58 86 58 / 0 5 5 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 89 60 88 60 / 5 5 5 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 92 60 91 62 / 0 5 5 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 92 64 92 64 / 0 5 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 83 57 83 58 / 5 5 10 10
CAPULIN......................... 89 58 88 60 / 10 10 20 20
RATON........................... 98 62 96 63 / 10 10 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 95 63 93 64 / 5 10 10 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 90 59 88 59 / 5 10 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 94 63 94 68 / 0 5 10 20
ROY............................. 92 64 91 66 / 0 10 10 20
CONCHAS......................... 98 69 97 71 / 0 0 5 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 99 68 98 69 / 0 0 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 100 71 98 72 / 0 0 5 10
CLOVIS.......................... 97 66 95 67 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 98 66 96 68 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 98 71 97 71 / 0 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 99 72 98 70 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 94 62 94 63 / 0 0 0 5
ELK............................. 88 58 88 59 / 0 0 5 5

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

GUYER/44/SHY

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 300943
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
543 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE
LATE THIS WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF VALLEY FOG
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THE RESULT OF A CALM
WIND AND TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN THE RIVER/STREAM WATER. ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PA...A MOIST SERLY FLOW...COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL
COOLING...IS CAUSING LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO DEVELOP. LATEST MESOSCALE
MDL DATA INDICATES THE ALLEGHENY VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY ARND
13Z. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES WILL LIFT INTO A SCT-BKN CU LYR BY LATE AM.

AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY...RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPTS BACK INTO THE REGION. LG
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF LOW AMPLITUDE H5 SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPING
EWD THRU THE OHIO VALLEY...COMBINED WITH WEAK SSELY LLVL UPSLOPE
FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS BY LATE AFTN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/S-CENTRAL MTNS.
00Z MDL QPFS ARE GENERALLY FAVORING THIS AREA INDICATING A
RELATIVE MAXIMUM FROM THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU/WV-MD PNHDLS NWD
INTO S-CENTRAL PA. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS
TDY IN THE L/M80S.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT...AS REGION REMAINS
UNDER AREA OF LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER TROF. ECMWF/GEFS/NAM
ALL PLACE AXIS OF HIGHEST PWATS ALONG SPINE OF APPALACHIANS...SO
WILL PLACE BEST CHC OF OVERNIGHT RAINFALL THERE. MOIST SSERLY
FLOW...COMBINED WITH RAD COOLING...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
DEVELOPING STRATUS DECK LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE SPINE
OF THE ALLEGHENIES. PERSISTENT SSERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN VERY
SLOW CLEARING ON TUESDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BECOMING PTSUNNY BY
AFTN.

INCREASING FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA
BY TUE AFTN...ESP ACROSS THE WEST. 03Z SREF AND 00Z GEFS BOTH
SUPPORT LIKELY POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THE EARLY CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN ON TUESDAY...WITH
MAXES MOSTLY IN THE U70S AND L80S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL MED RANGE MDL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE PASSAGE OF SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LVL TROF OCCURS TUES NIGHT AND WED. DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF TROF WILL SUPPLY ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA.
HOWEVER...DO EXPECT A OVERALL DECREASE IN CONVECTION TUE
NIGHT...THEN DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CAUSE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN PA ON WED. ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF
BTWN TUE-WED RUNNING ARND ONE HALF AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL PA.

BEST CHANCE FOR A COMPLETELY DRY DAY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE
THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS
OVR THE AREA. GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATE A WARMING
TREND THU-SAT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SYS PASSES OFF THE E COAST AND
8H TEMPS RISE A BIT ABV NORMAL. RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
MED RANGE GUIDANCE THAT POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU CENTRAL PA ARND NEXT SUNDAY. DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH WILL
LIKELY BRING INCREASING HEAT/HUMIDITY/DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN...CULMINATING
IN THE BEST CHC OF RAINFALL WITH PASSAGE OF CDFRONT.

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES ONE WILL HIT A TAF SITE ARE VERY LOW SO
DID NOT MENTION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLIP TO MVFR AS
FOG DEVELOPS TOWARD MORNING /IFR POSS IN A FEW DEEPER VALLEYS/.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z...WITH VFR DAY IN STORE. LOW
AMPLITUDE H5 SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM OHIO VALLEY...
COMBINED WITH WEAK SSELY LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING
WILL RESULT IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/S-CENTRAL MTNS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...VFR-MVFR WITH OCNL SHRA AND SCTD TSRA.
THU...FOG POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...VFR.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 070825
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING /EH.W/ HEADLINES FOR
TODAY. SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS REST OF
SOUTHERN WI THRU MID-MRNG...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. COOLER...LESS HUMID AIR GRADUALLY SETTLES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT WL TAKE ITS TIME ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS IN THE SOUTHWEST TO
REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S MOST AREAS BY LATE MRNG...WHILE INCREASING
CLOUDS...THE COOLER AIR AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
RESULT IN IN COOLER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. HENCE WL LET EH.W EXPIRE
ACROSS THE NORTH AT 12Z AND IN THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTN.
THIS AREA MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER THIS AFTN. 925H TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MRNG BEFORE SLIDING
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

WEAK LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH SRN WI FROM LATE
MRNG INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL RH. THIS
TEAMS UP WITH SOME 850-700MB FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO FULL WIND
FRONTOGENESIS TO ADD SOME ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO BREAK THROUGH THE ELEVATED CAP AND PRODUCE ISOLD TO
SCT CONVECTION FROM LATE MRNG INTO THE EARLY EVE. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE IN THE NORTH...CLOSER TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL
JET. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT...SO WL CONFINE
SMALL CONVECTION THREAT IN SOUTH TO EVENING.

.SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW TO BRING A NEEDED BREAK TO
THE HEAT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 80S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH ONSHORE WINDS LIKELY
HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 70S NEAR THE LAKE MOST DAYS. THOUGH MUCH NICER
TEMPS EXPECTED...NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR RAIN CHANCES. MODELS NOT
SHOWING A CONSISTENT SUBSTANTIAL WAVE IN THE FLOW...SO KEPT DRY
FORECAST GOING.

UPPER RIDGING TO EVENTUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS WARMING UP A BIT...POSSIBLY BACK TOWARD THE 90S BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...WL NEED TO WATCH FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION
LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN AS MID LEVEL FORCING SLIDES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SRN WI. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS WL ACCOMPANY ANY
CONVECTION. CONVECTION THREAT ENDS OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTS SWD.
SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE DUE TO
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT TO PUT INTO TAFS.

.MARINE...FAVORING SHORT TERM NAM GUIDANCE WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL
WINDS. NORTHERN LAKE MI BUOY GUSTING OVER 20KTS SINCE 04Z. LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE MI THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN...CREATING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY FROM 03Z/07 HAD MID-LAKE TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER SRN LAKE MI AND AROUND 70 FARTHER NORTH. WITH
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO REACH 25KTS AT
TIMES BEGINNING LATER THIS MRNG. HENCE WL BE ISSUING SMALL CRAFT
ADVY WITH STAGGERED START TIMES...BEGINNING MID-MRNG IN THE NORTH
AND LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN IN THE SOUTH. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WL
CONTINUE ON SUN...BUT THINKING WINDS AND WAVES WL HOLD BELOW ADVY
LEVELS FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION LATER THIS
MRNG AND AFTN.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ062-
063-067>069.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-
047-051-052-056>060-066.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ064-
065-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR LMZ645-646.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR LMZ643-644.

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KSGX 051026
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BETTER DAYTIME CLEARING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN
TODAY...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

STRATUS COVERED MOST AREAS W OF THE MTNS...WITH CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. MODIS TPW IMAGE SHOWED THE 1-INCH PRECIP WATER VALUES
RETREATED TO CENTRAL/EASTERN IMPERIAL COUNTY AND FAR EAST SAN
BERN/RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE MODERATE DROP IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF NEAR-ZERO 850MB COMPUTED LI AND
A CAP JUST ABOVE 600 MB...WILL KEEP TSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...BUT SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS. STRATUS WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR AGAIN...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING SLIGHTLY LESS RH IN
THE COASTAL MARINE LAYER...SO AREAS 3-10 MILES INLAND THAT DID NOT
CLEAR WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON.
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NE PACIFIC...BUT
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE BIG RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALSO RETROGRADE WEST AS
A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NE US. THUS...EXPECT A WARMING
TREND...ESPECIALLY INLAND...FRIDAY/SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
8-15 DEG F BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT MTN/DESERT TEMPS WILL BE 1-5 DEG
F ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW DUE TO THE HEIGHT RISES AND THE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COASTAL
EDDY...SO STRATUS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE.

THE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER UTAH...SO THE SOUTHWESTERN US WILL
HAVE GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. ECM/GFS HAVE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF TSTORMS OVER
THE MTNS BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE FURTHER INCREASING
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. THE MOISTURE
WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 600 MB THOUGH...SO TSTORMS WILL TEND TO BE MORE
ISOLATED...BUT WITH A THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE TSTORM
THREAT COULD CONTINUE THROUGH WED OR THU OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MORE
TROUGHING OFF THE PAC NW COAST COULD WEAKEN THE WESTERN US RIDGE AND
HENCE WEAKEN THE MOIST SE FLOW THU/FRI.

.AVIATION...
050808Z...THROUGH 1800 UTC OVC STRATUS OVR WATER TO 30SM INLAND WITH
BASES 1200-1600 FT MSL AND TOPS 2500-3000 FT MSL OTRW SKC.
BTWN 1800-2000 UTC BKN-SCT STRATUS RETREATING W TO COAST...AND
FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVR MTNS IN THE 8000-15000 FT MSL LAYER.
BTWN 06/0200-0400 UTC OVC STRATUS MOVING INLAND 25-30SM WITH BASES
1000-1500 FT MSL AND TOPS 2000 FT MSL...AND CUMULUS OVR MTNS ENDING.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION...BALFOUR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KLOT 050227 AAA
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
927 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
925 PM CDT

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH CONDITIONS
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH THE FORECAST. THE HOT TEMPERATURES OF
TODAY ARE SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS INCHING
UP A FEW DEGREES AS THE MIXING OF THE DAY SUBSIDED. HEAT INDEX
READINGS IN CHICAGO REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 100 AT 9 PM...WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S
IN CHICAGO WITH LOW TO MID 70S IN OUTLYING AREAS ARE STILL
FAVORED. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME SHALLOW LIGHT FOG TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE THERMAL INVERSION IN OUTLYING AREAS...AS 9 PM
OBSERVATIONS AT RPJ OF 80 OVER 76 AND PNT OF 82 OVER 77 HINT AT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY...A LAKE BREEZE REMAINS FAVORED IN
LATEST GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT WITH WIND FLOW IN THE MIXED LAYER
AROUND 5-8 KT LESS THAN TODAY. SIMILAR TO SE WI TODAY WHERE THE
SYNOPTIC WINDS WERE SLIGHTLY LESS...THE LAKE BREEZE IS FAVORED TO
INCH VERY SLOWLY INLAND AGAINST THE WEST SOUTHWEST WIND. MUCH OF
THE LAKE COUNTIES STILL WILL BE SEEING HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR
110 DUE TO BOTH THE LIMITED INLAND IMPINGEMENT AND THE FACT THE WIND
SHIFT MAY BE LATE ENOUGH AFTER THE HIGHS ARE REACHED /HIGH AT ORD
TODAY WAS EARLY AT 133 PM/. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE ARE SMALL...BUT ARE NON-ZERO. THERE IS SLIGHT COOLING IN
THE MID-LEVELS FORECAST FROM THIS EVES RAOB READINGS. FORECAST
MLCIN IS NEAR ZERO IN NORTHEAST IL. THE 04.18 NAM HAD THE CENTRAL
MN SHORT WAVE IMPULSE TONIGHT DRIFTING OVER THAT AREA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE MOST RECENT NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
FASTER. IF THAT SLIGHT IMPULSE CAN INTERACT OVER THE LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE...IT MAY NEGATE ANY CIN FOR WIDELY SCATTERED BUT
PROBABLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ALSO OF NOTE...ON THE MODIS AND GOES VISIBLE IMAGES TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WAS QUITE A BIT OF SMOKE IN THE DAKOTAS...NE...MN...AND
IA. NAM PARCEL TRAJECTORIES FROM 20000 FT AND HIGHER INDICATE THIS
AREA SHOULD DRIFT OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MORE
DISPERSED. THERE WERE NO INDICATIONS OF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN
THOSE UPSTREAM AREAS TODAY AND THIS EVE...BUT IF THAT WERE TO
SETTLE CLOSER TO THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY
MORE HAZE AND POTENTIALLY WORSE AIR QUALITY COULD DEVELOP.

MTF

.PREV DISCUSSION...
445 PM CDT

FORECAST FOCUS SQUARELY ON CONTINUATION OF INTENSE HEAT THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 10 PM CDT FRIDAY.

AIR TEMPERATURES CLIMBED TO 95 TO 102 ACROSS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX NUMBERS UP TO 103 TO 108. NORTHEASTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE 850KPA THERMAL RIDGE THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE
MID MO VALLEY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY IS TO BE SUPPRESSED A
BIT TO THE S ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL FOR THU AND FRI
AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN ONTARIO
GETS FLATTENED BY THE UPPER LOW TRACKING E OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON THU THAT ARE A DEG OR TWO ABOVE
TODAY/S...AND THEN FOR FRI AN ADDITIONAL DEG HIGHER OVER THU AT
MOST LOCATIONS.

WHILE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN MARGINALLY INLAND
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SO ANY RELIEF WILL
BE VERY LIMITED AND SHORT LIVED AS LIGHT SW LOW LEVEL FLOW PUSHES
THE HOT AIR RIGHT BACK OUT OVER THE SHORE LINE BY LATER THU
EVENING.

TIMING OF COOL FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE DURING FRI COMPLICATES THINGS
A BIT BUT FEEL THAT THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL REACH NORTHERN IL UNTIL
VERY LATE FRI OR MORE LIKELY FRI NIGHT. WEAK W TO SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW DURING FRI WILL LIKELY ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND BUT
NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING SO
FRI WILL BE ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
FA WITH THE FAR NE CORNER OF IL LIKELY THE ONLY PART OF THE FA TO
GET ANY REAL RELIEF UNTIL THE ACTUAL COOL FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE
AREA.

WITH MAX TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE THU AND
FRI THE LOWERING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS BACK UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S PER GUIDANCE WILL KEEP HI NUMBERS UP IN THE 105-115 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THU AND FRI AFTERNOONS. WITH OVERNIGHT HEAT
INDEX NUMBERS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 75 TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA FOR ALL OTHER COUNTIES
SURROUNDING COOK WHICH HAS IT/S OWN SET FOR THE CITY WILL BE
REACHED SO ADVISORY EXPANDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY RESULT IN LARGE VALUES OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
BUT LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND MID-UPPER DISTURBANCES LACKING THUS ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES OF ISOLATED TS IF ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT
THE RIGHT TIME AT A PARTICULAR SPOT. THUS...POP NUMBERS TOO LOW
FOR ANY MENTION OF EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL FRI NIGHT WITH THE
COOL FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN IL. MODELS NOT BULLISH WITH
PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER S SAT OR SUN SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING ALL OR PARTS OF THE FA FOR
SAT THROUGH MON UNTIL BOUNDARY FINALLY GETS SHOVED ACROSS CENTRAL
TO SOUTHERN IL TAKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED ON EITHER SIDE OF
IT OUT OF THE LOCAL FA.

TRS

.CLIMATE...
925 PM CDT

RECORDS...

CHICAGO
THU JUL 5 MAX 102 1911 MIN 82 1911
FRI JUL 6 MAX 99 1988 MIN 80 1977

ROCKFORD
THU JUL 5 MAX 100 1911 MIN 77 1911
FRI JUL 6 MAX 102 1936 MIN 73 1948

THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 ON JULY 24 1934...
AND FOR ROCKFORD IS 112 ON JULY 14 1936.

FOR CHICAGO THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
THREE...JULY 3RD THROUGH 5TH OF 1911...AND ALSO AUGUST 4TH
THROUGH 6TH OF 1947.

FOR ROCKFORD THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS
NINE...JULY 6TH THROUGH 14TH OF 1936.

IZZI/TRS

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT THE AREA TO CONTINUE TO SIT BETWEEN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS LEAVES NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. GRADIENT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WEAKER THURSDAY
LEADING TO SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A LAKE
BREEZE TO DEVELOP...THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND
IT WILL PUSH GIVEN THE OPPOSING WINDS. SHOULD IT MAKE IT ACROSS THE
CHICAGO TERMINALS...WINDS WOULD SWITCH AROUND TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. ALSO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE CHANCES ALONG THE
LAKE BREEZE. THERE SHOULD BE DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST. BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE REACHING TERMINALS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR. CHANCE TSRA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

BMD

.MARINE...
250 PM CDT

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES LIFTS TOWARD
HUDSON BAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES REGION AND SLIDING SOUTH DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SETTLING
ACROSS THE SOUTH END BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW BRIEFLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE RIPPLES EAST ALONG THE FRONT...
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW THEN STRENGTHENING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN THE TIGHTENING NORTHERLY
GRADIENT AND PUSH OF SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR RESULTS IN NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE PERHAPS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

RATZER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.

IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 240943
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
543 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD INTO PENNSYLVANIA BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING A BIT OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES EARLY THIS AM. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY ARND 12Z.
AS SFC HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...A RETURN
SW FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER/MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. INCREASING MID LVL CLOUDINESS APPEARS LIKELY TODAY...ESP
THIS AFTN...THE RESULT OF WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...COULD PRODUCE ISOLD LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AND WARREN CO. SATL DERIVED PWATS SHOW A RIBBON OF
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...WHICH MDL DATA SUGGESTS WILL
KEEP THE CENTRAL MTNS DRY TODAY. MDL 800MB TEMPS CLOSE TO 11C
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE L/M80S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION TODAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SPC PLACING THE NW MTNS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX THIS EVENING
FROM STORMS PRECEDING ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT. LG SCALE FORCING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF SHOULD SUSTAIN TSRA AFTER DARK AS THEY
CROSS LK ERIE INTO NW PA. SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...AS
REMNANTS OF STORMS MOVE INTO LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS.

LINGERING SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AM ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA WITH
FROPA...THEN MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE STATE BY
AFTN. COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIR AMT OF CU BY
AFTN...ESP ACROSS THE N MTNS. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF
HIGHS FROM JUST THE M60S OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE U70S ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A GUSTY NW WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL BE FREQUENT GUSTS BTWN
20-25KTS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE...LEADING TO HIGHER
THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALL DATA
INDICATING AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROF WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS...BRINGING A PERIOD OF COOL...BUT MAINLY DRY...WX TO CENTRAL
PA THRU MIDWEEK. POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STEEP
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LPS RTS DURING TUE AFTN...BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL OF A FEW PM SHOWERS OVR THE NE MTNS.

MODEL DATA INDICATING A QUICK WARM UP LATE WEEK...AS UPPER TROF
LIFTS OUT...ALLOWING BUILDING HEAT OVR THE MIDWEST TO PUSH TOWARD
PA. ECMWF MEAN 850 TEMPS BY FRIDAY CLOSE TO 20C...INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL OF HIGHS EXCEEDING 90F IN THE VALLEYS. WILL KEEP CHC OF
PM TSRA IN THE FCST THU-SAT...AS PA WILL BE WITHIN RING OF FIRE ON
PERIPHERY OF LARGE UPPER LVL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE MISS VALLEY.

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS -
THOUGH PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL FORM SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE.

THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES - PASSING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY...OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED
RESTRICTIONS IN VERY ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUN NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD...BRINGING SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO THE N AND W
AFTER 04Z MON. BUT OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VFR TO MVFR...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA BRINGING LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS.
MON...VFR...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA BRINGING LOCAL RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
N AND E EARLY.
TUE-THU...VFR.

.EQUIPMENT...
OIL PUMP ON KCCX PEDESTAL HAS FAILED AND THE PART IS BEING RUSHED
IN. AT THIS POINT...RETURN TO SERVICE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUN AFTN.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR
EQUIPMENT...

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 230938
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
538 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AM WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSSING LK
ERIE. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH
LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PA...HAS RESULTED IN A LONE SHOWER E OF IPT AT 09Z. A
STRAY SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER BTWN 09Z-
11Z. HOWEVER...PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL
END THE RISK OF SHOWERS BY ARND 12Z. MODIS 11-3.7UM PRODUCT
SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS NORTH OF I-80.

ANY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z. HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY
AIR MASS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL THEN BRING MSUNNY SKIES
AND MUCH LESS HUMID WX FOR THE REST OF TODAY. MDL 800MB TEMPS
APPROACHING 10C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE U70S OVR
THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...TO THE M80S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES...A CALM WIND AND DRY AIR MASS UNDER SFC HIGH WILL
ALLOW FOR SIG RAD COOLING TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND THE 50S ELSEWHERE. THE COOL
TEMPS...COMBINED WITH WARM RIVER/STREAM WATER AND A CALM
WIND...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AM FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES.

HIGH PRES WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY...ALLOWING
OF RETURN SW FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER/MORE HUMID AIR TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. SOME MID LVL CLOUDINESS APPEARS LIKELY...ESP
LATE...THE RESULT OF WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. LG SCALE
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...COULD PRODUCE ISOLD LATE DAY TSRA.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE...LEADING TO HIGHER
THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FCST. ALL DATA INDICATING
A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE OCCURS SUN NITE OR EARLY MON
AM...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA/TSRA. IN THE WAKE OF COLD
FRONT...ANOMALOUS UPPER TROF WILL SET UP OVR THE NORTHEAST
CONUS...BRINGING A PERIOD OF COOL...BUT MAINLY DRY...WX TO CENTRAL
PA DURING THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LPS RTS DURING THE
AFTN...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW PM SHOWERS OVR THE N MTNS
THRU MID WEEK.

ALL MDL DATA NOW POINTING TOWARD A QUICK WARM UP LATE WEEK...AS
UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT...ALLOWING BUILDING HEAT OVR THE MIDWEST TO
PUSH TOWARD PA. ECMWF MEAN 850 TEMPS BY FRIDAY CLOSE TO
20C...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHS EXCEEDING 90F.

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOW SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION...WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER SAT INTO SUN.

IFR FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT LNS /WHERE SIG RAIN FELL FRI
EVENING/ AND KBFD. ADDITIONAL PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL FORM
ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA TOWARD SUNRISE...FALLING MAINLY INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NW.

FOG DISSIPATES QUICKLY SAT MORNING...WITH A VFR DAY AND GREAT FLYING
CONDITIONS IN STORE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW/W AROUND 10 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 14-18MPH.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. ISOLD LATE AFT TSTM W LOCAL RESTRICTION POSS NORTH.
SUN NIGHT...VFR TO MVFR...WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS BRINGING LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS.
MON...VFR TO MVFR...WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS BRINGING LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS MAINLY N AND E.
TUE-WED...PRIMARILY VFR.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...ROSS/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KCHS 280718
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
318 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

...PRELIMINARY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL MADE LANDFALL IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA BEFORE MOVING BACK UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST COULD IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL MADE LANDFALL NEAR JACKSONVILLE BEACH FLORIDA
AT 1210 AM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 MPH. THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST AND REMAINS WELL DEFINED
PER SATELLITE AND KJAX REFLECTIVITY DATA. NUMEROUS FEEDER BANDS
ARE STILL WRAPPING AROUND ITS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STREAMING INLAND FROM OFF
THE ATLANTIC ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY CENTER ON THE
CONTINUED RISK FOR LINGERING LOW-END TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE PLACEMENT/EXTENT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH BERYL NOW INLAND...STEADILY WEAKENING WILL ENSUE. MARINE
OBSERVATIONS OFF THE COAST ALREADY INDICATE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
WINDS IS OCCURRING AND WOULD EXPECT THE RISK FOR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...MAINLY IN GUSTS...TO BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH
GEORGIA ZONES THROUGH MID-MORNING AT THE LATEST. THE RISK FOR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAS GENERALLY ENDED FOR JASPER-BEAUFORT
AND COLLETON COUNTIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY OCCURRING WITHIN TRANSIENT SHOWER ACTIVITY...
SO WILL COORDINATE WITH NHC SHORTLY TO POSSIBLY CANCEL THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS WITH THE NEXT ADVISORY.
ANTICIPATE ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL BE DISCONTINUED BY
THIS AFTERNOON IF NOT LATER THIS MORNING AS BERYL MOVES FARTHER
INLAND AND WEAKENS.

THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PWATS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS BERYL BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...
WITH MODIS TPW PRODUCTS SHOWING PWATS IN THE 2 INCH RANGE AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THE RISK FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR EVEN ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA.
POPS WILL RANGE FROM 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S WITH LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE
BEACHES.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TO BE ISSUED.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO BE ISSUED.

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...IT IS LIKELY THAT MOISTURE/SPEED CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LOWER CIGS AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT. ON MON...AWAY FROM THE MAIN PCPN SHIELD OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM...A DEEP MOIST PROFILE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS AND A RISK OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH
SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS TO WIND SPEEDS...HOWEVER GUSTS A GOOD
BIT BELOW SUNDAY/S SPEEDS.

KSAV...AN INITIAL BAND OF RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL PRODUCED GUSTS
TO NEAR 40 MPH BRIEFLY AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS NEAR
30 KT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ON TAP THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE AS MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP AND SHOWER RISKS CONTINUE.
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE CLOSER TO BERYL NEAR THE
SWAMPS OF SOUTH GEORGIA. PREVAILING RAINS AFTER LATE MORNING HAVE
BEEN KEPT OUT OF PICTURE UNTIL RADAR TRENDS DICTATE LATER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS TS BERYL OR REMNANTS IMPACT THE REGION. GUSTY CONDITIONS
ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...
CANCELLED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COASTAL WATERS AND ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

RIP CURRENTS...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FETCH AND LINGERING LARGE
SURF/SWELL WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES
TODAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
TO BE ISSUED.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GAZ116>119-137>141.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GAZ114>119-
137>141.
SC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SCZ047>049-051.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ352-354-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ330.

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KCHS 240812
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
412 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS. BY
SUNDAY...THE ATLANTIC LOW WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TO THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD FLORIDA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHILE THE HIGH NEAR THE AREA GRADUALLY WEAKENS BY TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WELL TOT HE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
DURING THIS PERIOD NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF A BAHAMAS.

AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED
TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE YESTERDAYS VALUES...MAINLY FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT WITH LIFTED INDICES PROGGED BY VARIOUS
MODELS FROM -3 TO -5 AND CAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 1500
J/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES. THE HRRR
AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS OCCURRING WHILE BOTH THE
00Z/24 NAM AND GFS KEEP THINGS DRY. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEAS BREEZE IN MOST AREAS.

ANY EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES SHOULD MAINLY BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG TO FORM. FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO ADDED BY
LATER SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT GET RAIN TODAY.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL CAUSE SOME WARMING...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE AT
MID LEVELS...SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS DESPITE SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH TEMPS INTO THE
LOW 90S INLAND. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE BELOW 20 PERCENT EACH DAY.

THE FORECAST GETS MUCH TRICKIER ON SATURDAY AS THE MODELS GIVE A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EVOLVE. THEY ALL RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARD THE COAST AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...TRAPPING THE LOW AND
PREVENTING IT FROM MOVING NORTH AND EASTWARD OUT TO SEA. AT THIS
TIME...I PREFER A GFS SOLUTION BRINGING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. THAT WOULD PUT US ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ON SUNDAY... AS WELL AS AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS AND MORE
CLOUDS WOULD ALSO MEAN LOWER TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO I ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

MY MAIN REASONING FOR PREFERRING THE GFS IS THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION
CURRENTLY SHOWN ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. FOR THE NAM SOLUTION TO
WORK OUT...THERE WOULD ALREADY HAVE TO BE A DISTINCT SURFACE LOW
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND I DO NOT SEE THAT
HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. ALSO...THE LATEST ECMWF IS JUST COMING IN...AND
SO FAR IT LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GFS THAN THE NAM.

THE OTHER FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM MAY WELL DEVELOP A WARM CORE AS IT
MOVES BACK TOWARD THE COAST...AND THE LATEST MODIS SST IMAGES SHOW
WATER TEMPS IN THE EXPECTED PATH AROUND 80F...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE
SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWING THROUGH WITH THE DISCUSSION ABOVE...THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BRING THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE OUR WINDS TO SWITCH
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH...BRINGING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE CWA AND GIVING US A MORE TYPICAL THREAT FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION. OF COURSE...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE
AS THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE ATLANTIC LOW WILL PLAY A MAJOR
FACTOR IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IT POSSIBLE
THE LOW COULD STALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...THEN WAIT FOR THE RIDGE
TO BREAK DOWN AND START MOVING NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD...AS THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS.

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR LIKELY AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS SO HAVE INTRODUCED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR 5SM BR FROM 08Z TO 12Z. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITY IN GROUND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT FEEL
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. ALSO SOME MVFR
CIGS OBSERVED AT KGGE AND EARLIER AT KMYR...BUT THINK THAT MVFG
CIGS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF KCHS. POPS TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A LITTLE MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE A LITTLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY DEPENDING ON
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD. WINDS WILL GET A BIT GUSTIER...AND THERE WILL BE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS IN CONVECTION.

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
AOB 15 KNOTS AND SEAS AOB 4 FEET.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RULE THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS THE REGION WILL SIT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS BY
SATURDAY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT BELIEF THAT THE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST ON SUNDAY...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WATERS. THE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL STAY UP SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE COMING DOWN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...ALSHEIMER
LONG TERM...ALSHEIMER
AVIATION...SPR/MTE
MARINE...ALSHEIMER/MTE

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 180940
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
540 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A CHILLY MORNING IN PROGRESS...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS HAVE
ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE 30S AT 08Z WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
COOLING YET TO GO. THE LARGE TEMP DIFF BTWN WATER/AIR WILL LEAD TO
FOG IN THE DEEP RIVER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH...MUCH AS OCCURRED
YESTERDAY. MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING PATCHY FOG
FORMING AT 0730Z.

AFTER THE CHILLY START...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM THINGS UP
QUICKLY. MDL 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S. SINKING AIR
ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES AT SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD CAUSE APPROACHING
CLOUDS OVR THE GRT LKS TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL PA
TDY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER CLEAR AND TRANQUIL NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES
OVR THE STATE. MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
MILDER NIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD 40S STILL EXPECTED.

ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 TEMPS WARM TO ARND 14C SATURDAY...SUPPORTIVE OF
MAX TEMPS IN THE L80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AGAIN SEEMS LIKELY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH PRES RIDGE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MED RANGE MDL GUIDANCE NOW CONVERGING ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH
RESPECT TO CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. EXPECT THIS
SYSTEM TO LIFT NORTH UP THE EAST COAST LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ASSOCIATED MOIST...EASTERLY LL JET AND UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE
PRECEDING THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY BRING SCT SHOWERS TO CENTRAL
PA BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. GEFS DATA
SHOWING HIGHEST PWATS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA...WHERE THE BEST CHC OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUN NITE/MONDAY.

OPER AND ENSEMBLE MDL DATA ALL INDICATE THAT AS UPPER LOW OPENS
UP AND LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
DEEPEN AND CUT OFF OVR THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE ARE UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT...ENOUGH SUPPORT IN THE MDL DATA TO MENTION THE CHC OF
DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHRA/TSRA TUES-THURS.

SUNDAY LIKELY TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHWEST PA. CLOUDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS...BUT WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A DRY AIR MASS WHICH WILL RESULT IN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG
WILL FORM ACROSS NRN PENN LATE TONIGHT...AND DISSIPATE BY 13Z
FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG/STRATUS AFTER 07Z AT KBFD.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE...MORE WIDESPREAD REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND LOW PRESSURE CREEPING SLOWLY
NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-037-041-042.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 151747 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.UPDATE...SFC COLD FRONT IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. VIS SAT SHOWS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO
WORK INTO THE CWA...THOUGH SHOULD NOT INHIBIT TODAY\S HIGHS.
INHERITED TEMPS AND SKIES ARE ON TRACK. THE MAIN CONCERN IS IN
REGARD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER
18 UTC. CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
LACK OF MOISTURE...AS SEEN BY LOW PWAT VALUES AND MODEL FCST/12Z
SOUNDINGS...AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
FURTHERMORE...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...SPECIFICALLY NAM AND RAP...AND HOW THEY MIX DEWPOINTS.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IS POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. PRETTY DRY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS THOUGH...WITH MODELS ALL GENERALLY OVERDOING
DEWPOINTS. THUS STILL NOT EXCITED AT THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS...SO OPTED TO JUST MAINTAIN VCTS IN TAFS.
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

GOES SOUNDER SHOWS PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.6 INCH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
UPSTREAM...PWATS DROP TO AROUND 0.25 INCH BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT.
ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CARRYING SFC COLD FRONT
ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING FAR SOUTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING.
PWAT AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND OVER LAST SEVERAL HOURS...HAVE BEGUN TO SEE 45 TO 50 DEGREE
DEWPTS IN THE PLAINS MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD WI. MODEL
FORECASTED DEWPTS FOR TODAY CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES TOO
WARM...HOWEVER AGREE WITH SPC THAT SFC DEWPTS COULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOW 50S THIS AFTN. EXAMINATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES REVEAL POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2000
J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOT GREAT DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER SRN WI DOES GET CLIPPED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
CAUSED BY SECOND VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR SRN
END OF LAKE WINNIPEG. AXIS OF 10 UNIT LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
SWEEPS THRU SRN WI DURING THE AFTN...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL FN VECTOR
RESPONSE TO FRONTOGENESIS. BEST THREAT WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTN
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA...SO WENT WITH SCT WORDING.

BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KTS AND INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW THE TSTORMS
THAT DUE DEVELOP POSSIBLY TAKE ON SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS.
HIGH LCL SHOULD PREVENT TORNADO FORMATION...AS DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL WOULD BE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. SVR THREAT WOULD BE BRIEF.

DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
MOST AREAS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WL PREVENT LAKE BREEZE...SO WL
BE WARM AT THE SHORE AS WELL. HOWEVER LAKE MI BEACH GOERS WL NEED
TO WATCH FOR RAPID COOLING EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER STRONGLY
TO THE NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER ON WED IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. A LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE LOWER
60S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND VERY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW INLAND
TEMPS TO APPROACH 70 BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPS EXPECTED TO
MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S.

WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WILL BEGIN WED NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS WI
THROUGH THU NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOW TO MID 70S ON THU. EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS A LITTLE COOLER. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME MID CLOUDS WITH THE WAA AS WELL.

THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO SOUTHERN WI GIVEN
THE SPRAWLING HIGH IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND MODELS SEEM TO KEEP
OVERESTIMATING THE DEWPOINT TEMPS BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES. THE MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT IN GENERATING PRECIP WITH THE WAA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
AND GFS FOCUS IT IN NORTHERN WI WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE TOWARD
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FCST
FOR NOW BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING FURTHER NORTH.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THERE COULD BE A SHORTWAVE OR TWO ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI WHICH COULD GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THUS
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRI AS WELL. BY FRI
AFTERNOON...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WE SHOULD BE CAPPED...WARM AND DRY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

THE GFS HAS COOLER TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT SO TRENDED TOWARD THE
WARMER ECMWF AND CANADIAN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND
FROM THE LAKE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE COLD FRONT COULD MAKE IT INTO WI AS EARLY AS LATE SAT NIGHT SO
THEREFORE MENTIONED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER. HOWEVER...THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS QUICKEST AND THE
ECMWF IS SLOWEST. THIS FAR OUT THE TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE SO WILL
HAVE TO SPREAD THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESE TWO
DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL DURATION WOULD BE LESS THAN A 12 HOUR
WINDOW.

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SIMILAR TO THE
TEMP DIFFERENCE EXPECTED BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS TO
25KTS BY LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT NOW
ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SWEEPS THROUGH THE SOUTH. EXPC THE
WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z AT THE TAF
SITES. ISOLD TO SCT THUNDER MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. WL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND GUSTS
POTENTIALLY REACHING 40-50KTS NEAR THOSE STORMS LATE THIS AFTN. LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRY SO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINE...LATEST MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON REVEALED LARGE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MI. FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE HAD SST IN THE MID 60S WHILE LARGE EXPANSE OF
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS REMAINED IN THE MID 40S. SUNSHINE
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW LEVEL
MIXING LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25KTS OVER THE SHORE AREAS DUE TO THE
LOW LEVEL MIXING...HENCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVY WL BE POSTED. GUSTINESS
WL DIMINISH FARTHER OUT INTO THE LAKE...WHERE COOLER LAKE WATERS WL
RESULT IN LOW LEVEL INVERSION. COLD FRONT WL SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z...WITH WINDS TURNING
RAPIDLY TO THE NNE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE WILL CAUSE THIS COLD FRONT TO ACT AS A PNEUMONIA
FRONT...AND WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID WIND SHIFT...SIGNIFICANT DROP
IN SFC TEMP...RISE IN PRESSURE AND POTENTIALLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTS TO 30KTS DURING THIS FOUR HOUR PERIOD. HENCE WL CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVY INTO THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGEABLE
CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WL SETTLE DOWN BY LATE EVENING AS THE FRONT
PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...ET/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 150846
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
346 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE GFS HAS COOLER TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT SO TRENDED TOWARD THE
WARMER ECMWF AND CANADIAN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND
FROM THE LAKE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SIMILAR TO THE
TEMP DIFFERENCE EXPECTED BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS TO
25KTS BY LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT NOW
ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SWEEPS THROUGH THE SOUTH. EXPC THE
WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z AT THE TAF
SITES. ISOLD TO SCT THUNDER MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. WL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND GUSTS
POTENTIALLY REACHING 40-50KTS NEAR THOSE STORMS LATE THIS AFTN. LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRY SO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.MARINE...LATEST MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON REVEALED LARGE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MI. FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE HAD SST IN THE MID 60S WHILE LARGE EXPANSE OF
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS REMAINED IN THE MID 40S. SUNSHINE
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW LEVEL
MIXING LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25KTS OVER THE SHORE AREAS DUE TO THE
LOW LEVEL MIXING...HENCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVY WL BE POSTED. GUSTINESS
WL DIMINISH FARTHER OUT INTO THE LAKE...WHERE COOLER LAKE WATERS WL
RESULT IN LOW LEVEL INVERSION. COLD FRONT WL SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z...WITH WINDS TURNING
RAPIDLY TO THE NNE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE WILL CAUSE THIS COLD FRONT TO ACT AS A PNEUMONIA
FRONT...AND WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID WIND SHIFT...SIGNIFICANT DROP
IN SFC TEMP...RISE IN PRESSURE AND POTENTIALLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTS TO 30KTS DURING THIS FOUR HOUR PERIOD. HENCE WL CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVY INTO THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGEABLE
CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WL SETTLE DOWN BY LATE EVENING AS THE FRONT
PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CDT
TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 290846
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
346 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2012

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DRIER AIR RIDING NORTHEAST BREEZES HAS RESULTED IN SCOURING OUT LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE PUSHED FAR AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WL BE REMAINING SOUTHERLY
JUST TO THE SOUTH IN SRN IA INTO NRN IL. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN
AROUND AN INCH IN THESE AREAS. ALREADY SOME SCT -SHRA FORMING IN
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN SE IOWA...BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD ERODE
THESE -SHRA BEFORE MAKING INROADS INTO SRN WI. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
VCNTY OF SOUTHEAST CO WL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY AND ACROSS ERN IA AND WI TNGT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL PULL THIS DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
WI. IN FACT BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION COMMENCING THIS AFTERNOON...PEAKING OVER SRN WI THIS
EVENING BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

WL LEAN A LITTLE MORE ON CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS
LATEST NAM TRENDING TOWARD SLIGHTLY FASTER SCENARIO IN CARRYING MID
LEVEL WAVE INTO VCNTY OF NERN IA BY 00Z/MON. ALL SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CARRYING ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL FACTORS COME TOGETHER
DURING THE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE
ENHANCED FORCING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z. WL BUMP UP POPS TO
CATEGORICAL ALL AREAS...WITH FAVORED PERIOD OF PRECIP IN THE WESTERN
CWA DURING THE EVENING...AND SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE EASTERN CWA.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED T
DUE TO STRENGTH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND OMEGA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...STILL EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WL CUT BACK A FEW DEGREES ON MAX T.
ONSHORE FLOW WL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER AS WELL.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FORCING WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF WI BY
12Z MON...BUT KEPT LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WI THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN TAPERED
OFF THE CHANCES TO DRY IN THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN
ENDING...MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN INTO MON NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL 500MB
SHORTWAVES ROLL ACROSS SOUTHERN WI IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW. THE
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT NEAR THE LAKE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN
COOLER IN THE EAST. EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE BELOW GUIDANCE...
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE LAKESHORE TO THE LOWER 60S WELL
INLAND.

WEAK RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET WILL KEEP THINGS DRY MON NIGHT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT CLOUDS
WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

FLOW BACKS TO THE SW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING BROAD...LOW
AMPLITUDE WESTERN TROUGH. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
NOW HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE EVENING. THERE IS REALLY NOT STRONG FORCING
FOR THIS NEXT CHANCE...SO BACKED OFF ON POPS TO CHANCE INSTEAD OF
LIKELY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE PROBABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NOSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ POINTS INTO SOUTHERN WI TUE NIGHT...WEAK
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROLL ACROSS WI...AND SOUTHERN WI IS VAGUELY
WITHIN A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE UPPER 70S ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WEDNESDAY. CAPE INCREASES BY 00Z THU TO ALMOST 1500 J/KG...WITH
LIFTED INDEX AROUND -7...DECENT SHEAR AND A BULK RICHARDSON NUMBER
AROUND 40 PER THE GFS MODEL. THE CIPS WARM SEASON ANALOG SHOWS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND BASED ON PREVIOUS SEVERE
WEATHER REPORTS FROM PAST SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERNS...AS WELL AS A
CHANCE FOR TORNADOES. SPC HAD SOUTHEAST WI MARKED IN A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IN THEIR SAT MORNING EXTENDED CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. THE
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER PRODUCT /CWASP/ IN OUR OFFICE SHOWS MUCH OF
WI IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

SOUTHERN WI WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL CONTINUE ITS
TRACK OVERHEAD...THUS ALLOWING FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR WED/WED
NIGHT AND ALSO FOR THU. STAY TUNED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS THEN SHIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH
OF WI THU NIGHT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI SO THERE
IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE TO CARRY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN RESULTING IN SCOURING LOW CLOUDS. EXPC VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH BKN-OVC MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SHRA EXPCD TO OVERSPREAD SRN WI TONIGHT RESULTING IN LOWERING CIGS
AND VSBYS. EXPC CIGS TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR TNGT...AND POSSIBLY
LOWER BY MON MRNG.

.MARINE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE MI TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONSHORE RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL INVERSION. LATEST
MODIS IMAGERY AND MID LAKE BUOY CONTINUE TO SHOW SRN LAKE MI SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. EXPC INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGER
WINDS FROM REACHING LAKE SURFACE TNGT. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 20KTS MAY BE FELT AT SGNW3 AND KNSW3 WHERE ANEMOMETER
HEIGHTS ARE 60FT ABV LAKE SFC.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 192040
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
340 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA DEPICT THE UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
TX/SRN PLAINS FROM THE WEST. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CWA/MSA FRIDAY THEN
EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT IS PROGD TO ENTER
THE CWA FRIDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PROG THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST
AROUND 00Z SAT. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER/SFC FORCING APPEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE-BASED
PARCELS...CIN APPEARS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR EXCEPT FOR THE NERN
SECTIONS (NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT.) THUS WILL ISSUE GREATEST POPS
FOR THE NERN SECTIONS. THE NAM/GFS BRN IS PROGD TO DECREASE TOWARD
THE SUPERCELLULAR RANGE DRG THE 21Z FRI-00Z SAT PERIOD (ESPECIALLY
FOR THE NERN CWA) CONCOMITANT WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT AND UPPER FORCING. CONCUR WITH SPC REGARDING THE SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE OVER THE NERN SECTIONS (DRG THE NARROW 21Z FRI-00Z
SAT WINDOW.) WILL INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING IN THE FCST FOR THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION FOR FRIDAY AFTN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 00Z SAT. THE NAM PROGS ONLY WEAK/MODERATE MSLP
RISES AFTER FROPA. THUS DO NOT EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER LAND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

.MARINE...IN RESPONSE TO THE FOREGOING UPPER DISTURBANCE...EXPECT
ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE
NAM/LOCAL ARW/GFS SUGGEST BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS DRG THE 06Z-
12Z FRIDAY PERIOD. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ONLY FOR SCEC
CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TNGT. WIND WILL DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY AFTN AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CWA.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY EVENING...
EXPECT STRONG SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHEN
CONSIDERING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS COMBINED WITH WARM SSTS
(MODIS ENHANCED SST COMPOSITE.) ANTICIPATE AT LEAST GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE DRG THE 06-12Z SAT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN
THE EXTENDED WILL BE STRENGTH OF WINDS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH POSSIBILITY OF FIRE DANGER THREAT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW
925 MB WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT 35 KNOTS AT 12Z SATURDAY FROM THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS THAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO SOUTH TEXAS. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES SATURDAY ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
NEAR 30 PERCENT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY SO ONLY EXPECT FIRE WEATHER
THREAT TO BECOME ELEVATED WHILE PREVIOUS RAINS FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND GALE FORCE SATURDAY MORNING. FROM SUNDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY. VERY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 67 81 58 78 53 / 10 40 40 0 0
VICTORIA 63 79 54 76 50 / 10 50 40 0 0
LAREDO 69 91 61 88 58 / 0 20 10 0 0
ALICE 65 84 58 82 52 / 10 30 30 0 0
ROCKPORT 69 78 60 76 57 / 10 40 40 0 0
COTULLA 64 86 56 84 50 / 0 20 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 66 83 58 80 52 / 10 30 30 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 70 78 62 76 61 / 10 40 40 0 0

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TT/89...LONG TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 130830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

PULLED TRIGGER ON DENSE FOG ADVY FOR SHEBOYGAN AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. EVENING CLEARING ALLOWED TEMPS TO RAPIDLY COOL IN THESE
AREAS TO DEWPTS. COLD SFC TEMPS AMPLIFIED LOW LEVEL INVERSION WHICH
SHOULD PREVENT INCREASING WINDS DUE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO AFFECT SFC IN THESE AREAS UNTIL AFT SUNRISE. DOT WEBCAMS SHOW
DENSE FOG IS SPREADING IN HIGHWAY 43 AREA...AND SHERIFFS DISPATCH
FOR SHEBOYGAN COUNTY REPORTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. NRN PART OF
WASHINGTON COUNTY ALSO EXPERIENCE AREAS OF DENSE FOG. EXPECT DENSE
FOG TO QUICKLY THIN AFTER 12-13Z.

WL LEAN MORE ON CONSISTENT ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY...AS
LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING TO THESE
SOLUTIONS. MID-LEVEL PROTECTIVE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY
AS WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SPREADS INTO
WISCONSIN. MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL NE REMAINS WELL WEST OF SRN
WI TODAY...HOWEVER WIND PROFILER NETWORK PICKS UP WEAKER SHORT WAVE
FARTHER EAST OVER ERN KS WHICH TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN WI LATER
TODAY. SRN WI GETS BRUSHED WITH MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH IS TIED TO IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION. PWAT VALUES INCREASE ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS
INCH TODAY. STRONGEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OF -10 TO -20 UNITS FROM
GFS BRUSHES WESTERN CWA LATER TODAY...SO WILL HANG ONTO LIKELY
WORDING IN THIS AREA...AND KEEP CHANCE GRADIENT FARTHER EAST.

DESPITE WARMER START TO DAY MOST AREAS...CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS SOMEWHAT IN CHECK...WITH EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS AROUND
YESTERDAYS READINGS. SHEBOYGAN AND PORT WASHINGTON WILL LIKELY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN...SO
WL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH SURGE OF
THETA-E ADVECTION.

WL HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING AS WEAKENING SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI. WL TREND DOWNWARD WITH POPS FOR
LATER TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS SWEEPS IN FROM THE
WEST. INCREASING SLY FLOW HOWEVER WL PULL DEEPER LOW LEVEL RH INTO
THE AREA FOR TNGT...RESULTING IN THICKENING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

VERY ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF
MINNESOTA SAT MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEEPENS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAY BE
RELATIVELY QUIET DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT
WARM ADVECTION MAY BRING A SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH 925 MB TEMPS IN THE 15-16C RANGE...SHOULD GET INTO THE LOW
70S MOST PLACES...ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN COMES OUT AT ALL.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET PUSHES INTO THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR EXPECTED TO GO ALONG
WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THUS THINK SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH SPC NOSING THE SLIGHT RISK
JUST INTO THE SW FORECAST AREA.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW BRINGING SFC LOW TO AROUND THE BORDER
OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY EVENING.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO NOSE RIGHT INTO SRN WI...WITH
MODELS GENERALLY ALL KEEPING SFC WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CAPE VALUES GET BACK UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG DURING THE
DAY...WITH A TON OF SHEAR AGAIN...ON THE ORDER OF 50-70 KNOTS OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR. CERTAINLY A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...AND SPC HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK. WILL BE MILD AGAIN SUNDAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR. AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND TIMING OF PRECIP WILL DETERMINE HOW
WARM IT GETS...BUT LOW OR EVEN MID 70S SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH UPPER
70S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP WINDING
DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

KEPT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING PRECIP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW...ALONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS. COLD AIR
WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO 30S
MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS STRUGGLING TO HIT 50 TUESDAY. SHOULD BE DRY
TUESDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM

HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR MID WEEK...AS MODELS ALL GENERALLY SHOW
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THOUGH THE AREA AT SOME POINT.
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS RESULTING INTO LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN POPS FOR INDIVIDUAL PERIODS...THOUGH PRECIP AT SOME
POINT MID WEEK SEEMS REASONABLE. SHOULD SEE TEMPS BACK TOWARD
NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...GRADUALLY THICKENING CLOUDS TODAY BUT DRY
SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP CIGS VFR DESPITE INCREASING -SHRA THREAT
LATE MRNG AND AFTN. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS MINIMAL THIS AFTN
SO WL HOLD OFF FROM INTRODUCING THUNDER IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.
CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM SLY WINDS WL USHER DEEPER RH
IN TNGT...WITH LIKELY MVFR CIGS.

.MARINE...DESPITE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...WINDS REMAIN SOUTHEAST. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY FROM AROUND
18Z/12 SHOW LAKE SFC TEMPS BEYOND THE NEARSHORE WATERS REMAIN AROUND
5-6C. HENCE EXPC LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVER LAKE MI TODAY...WHICH
SHOULD PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SFC. WIND
GUSTS WL EXCEED 22KTS HIGHER THAN 1K FEET OFF LAKE.

SECOND STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THRU UPPER MIDWEST ON SUN
WL RESULT IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH EXPCD WMFNT TO BE
NORTH OF SRN LAKE MI...GUSTY SW WINDS WL LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVY LEVELS FROM SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT. BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ052-060.

LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 100831
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.VERY SHORT TERM....TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW
TO MEDIUM.

MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING WEAK FORCING FROM MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CAUSED MID CLOUDS TO EXPAND OVER SOUTHEAST WI
OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUC CARRIES THIS WEAK WAVE ACROSS SRN WI EARLY
THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SECOND WEAK WAVE OVER FAR
NORTH CENTRAL MN WHICH MOVES ON A SIMILAR TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 11-3.9
MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING
BOTH OF THESE WAVES. WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS...AND LINGERING THERMAL TROF...EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN OVER ERN CWA...WITH MORE OF A BALANCE IN THE WEST. FOR NOW
WL HOLD OFF ON M/CLDY WORDING AS EXPECTING SEVERAL PERIODS OF AT
LEAST P/SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY.

WL DROP DODGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES FROM FREEZE WARNING EARLY THIS
MRNG AS BKN-OVC SHOULD LINGER IN THESE AREAS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. WITH KBUU AND KJVL IN THE LOW 30S...WL
CONTINUE FREEZE WARNING IN WALWORTH COUNTY AND POINTS WEST UNTIL
14Z. CLOUDS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WL ONLY ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS
TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY.

INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM PASSING LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
SHOULD HELP TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI BUT SCT-BKN
CLOUDS MAY HANG ON IN THE EAST AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ROTATES AROUND
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA. ALSO...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVER THE LAKESHORE AREAS WITH THE DELTA-T AROUND
12C. HENCE WITH CLEARING IN THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY LIGHTER
WINDS...TEMPS LIKELY TO FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLOUDS AND TEMPS FALLING TO 28F OR LOWER
LATER TONIGHT...HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR LATE
TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKE. ALSO...REMOVED FROST WORDING TONIGHT DUE
TO TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAINING HIGH.

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE FOCUS AS CURRENT RELATIVELY COLD TREND
CONTINUES WITH WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EASTERN
TROUGH AND PLAINS RIDGE. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT 925MB TEMPERATURES MODIFY A BIT UPWARD WITH DRY
ADIABATIC MIXING TO THAT LEVEL BRINGING HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S INLAND...WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE STRATOCUMULUS HOLDING READINGS IN THE 40S.

WEAK...SHEARED VORTICITY ON PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND
WEST OF STATE SHIFTS BACK EAST ACROSS STATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
ECMWF AN OUTLIER...BRINGING A STRONG VORT SOUTHEAST FROM NWRN
MN...REACHING SW WI/NW IL AROUND 06Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER COLUMN
REMAINS DRY ON ECMWF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO NO POP...AND LITTLE TO NO
CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING SUB-FREEZING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS. WILL HAVE
PATCHY FROST...AND AREAS OF FROST WHERE LOW TEMPS FALL BELOW 30F.

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THURSDAY AS 850-700 MB RIDGE AXES
SHIFT EAST. SURFACE HIGH ALSO CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN LAKES BY 00Z
FRIDAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON WEST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
ALL DAY IN THE EAST. BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
WEST...WITH LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

NAM AND GFS BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z FRIDAY WITH 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
WILL TIME PRECIPITATION ACROSS CWA WITH BEST ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC
OMEGA AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. LOWS BETWEEN 06Z AND
09Z FRIDAY...THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY WARM WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WET END OF THE WEEK/BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EJECT FROM WESTERN TROUGH. SOME PLACEMENT/TIMING DIFFERENCES
WHICH MAY IMPACT TEMPERATURES AND STORM MODE...BUT CONSENSUS BLEND
BRINGS SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH WAA
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...
BECOMING LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING WITH SHORT
WAVE...TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COOLER AIR
DROPPING SOUTH BEHIND WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MAINLY DRY
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SECONDARY WAVE ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BRUSH
THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PERIODS OF MOSTLY VFR CLOUDS EXPCD TODAY AND
MOSTLY ERN AREAS TONIGHT. SCT CLOUDS MAY APPROACH 3K FEET FOR A
TIME TODAY AND IN THE EAST TNGT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
NLY. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY ANTICIPATED...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS LATER THIS MRNG AND
AFTN.

.MARINE...COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MODIS IMAGERY FROM 17Z/09 MEASURED LAKE SURFACE
TEMPS 4-5C AWAY FROM THE SHALLOWER NEARSHORE WATERS...CONFIRMED BY
SOUTH LAKE BUOY TEMP. RESULTANT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE
AS WELL AS OVER THE LAKESHORE AREAS...WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO
AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVE.
WL EXTEND ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVY SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE EVE TO
ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING GUSTINESS. WINDS WL REMAIN GUSTY TNGT...BUT
SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW ADVY CRITERIA.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-056-
057-062-063-067>070.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...REM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 070235
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
935 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012

.UPDATE...NEEDED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN SOME
EASTERN SITES. WITH DRY DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOW TO MID
20S IN THOSE AREAS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S LATE
TONIGHT...THINK FROST POTENTIAL IS SMALL AND WL BE CONFINED TO LOW
AREAS. HENCE CHANGED AREAS OF FROST WORDING TO PATCHY.

EXPECT ISOBARS TO BE ALIGNED 30 DEGREES OR LESS WITH THE LAKE MI
SHORE ON SAT. MODIS IMAGERY FROM 18Z FRIDAY SHOWS LAKE SFC TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. HENCE EXPECTED THERMAL GRADIENT AND
BAGGIER PRESSURE GRADIENT...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WL RESULT IN
A MORE SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. HENCE WL NEED TO REEVALUATE WHETHER LAKESHORE MAX TEMPS
FOR SAT NEED TO BE LOWERED SLIGHTLY WITH NEW FORECAST. OTRW NO
CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SCT
-SHRA WILL AFFECT TAF SITES SAT AFTN...BUT CIGS WL REMAIN VFR. MAY
BE A BRIEF PD OF SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND CDFNT LATE
SUN AFTN AND/OR EVE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

$$
MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KPBZ 311727
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS BREAK UP TONIGHT IN TIME FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY THEN ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
PASSES ON TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1KM MODIS PIC AT 1522Z REVEALS THE SHALLOWEST CU OVER NRN WV
WHICH LEADS TO STRATUS BECOMING OPEN CELLULAR THERE FIRST THEN
SPREADING N INTO SWRN PA. DELAYED CLEARING BY SEVERAL HOURS AS
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOISTURE STAYING TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AT H9.
ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVNG THEN RETURN A
LAYER OF STRATUS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER I-80 AND NRN WV.
KEPT MINT TONIGHT AOA WARMEST GUIDANCE TEMPERATURE AS RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL NOT BE THAT SIGNIFICANT.

NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS IN NW FLOW ALOFT TRAVERSES THE
AREA SUN AFTN. INCREASED POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TO
LKLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SREF PLUMES INDICATE
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF. THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY IS NIL
SO CONTINUE TO LEAVE THUNDER MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVR THE MS VALLEY WILL STEEPEN THE NW FLOW OVER
THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONT TO INDICATE VARYING DEGREES
OF QPF AS THAT FEATURE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE USED A
GUIDANCE BLEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WRN STATES TROF IS FORECAST TO DVLP TWD THE PLAINS/WRN LAKES BY
MONDAY NGT...PUSHING THE RIDGE ACRS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
BEFORE DIGGING AN EAST COAST TROF BY THE END OF THE PD. GIVEN MDL
DIFFERENCES...HAVE GENLY PERSISTED WITH THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
FORECAST...BUT A BRIEF TEMPERATURE MODERATION AND MID WEEK CDFNT
CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR THE LONG TERM PD.

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 2Z. A BRIEF PD OF
CLEARING WILL OCCUR BEFORE STRATOCU RE-DEVELOPS AFT 7Z ESP AT FKL
AND DUJ. FOR AIRPORTS THAT DO NOT SEE OVERNIGHT MVFR
CLOUDS...EXPECT MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR WEATHER EXPECTED.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

.SYNOPSIS...98
.NEAR TERM...98
.AVIATION...98

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KABQ 252047
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
247 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTENING WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z KEPZ AND MMCU
SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING...THOUGH NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE OVERALL.
REGARDLESS...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTHWARD. HIGH BASED
CU HAS DEVELOPED FROM KSRR NORTHWARD TO KCQC...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG/EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. RADAR DATA
INDICATES SOME PRECIP IS FALLING...BUT GIVEN VERY LOW SURFACE
DEWPOINTS...ITS NOT LIKELY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND.
ADDITIONALLY...THUS FAR...ITS NOT BEEN VIGOROUS ENOUGH FOR ANY
LIGHTNING PRODUCTION EITHER. STRUGGLED WITH WHAT TO DO WITH POPS/WX
FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON
PRODUCING ANY QPF ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...GFS HAS AS
WELL...THOUGH STILL PRODUCES SOME. OPTED TO KEEP 10-POPS/DRY T/GUSTY
WIND MENTION FROM KCQC SOUTH...WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE
EXISTS WITH LARGE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. REMOVED POPS NORTH OF THIS
AREA THOUGH KEPT DRY T AND SPRINKLES MENTION FOR THE EVENING HOURS.
AFTER SUNSET...SUSPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE SOME...THUS REMOVED
POPS BUT AGAIN LEFT DRY T/SPRINKLES MENTION. NOT TERRIBLY CONVINCED
THERE WILL BE THUNDER...HOWEVER.

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MODERATED TEMPS A BIT ACROSS THE WEST TODAY...
HOWEVER...THE OTHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA..
SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY TIED OR BROKEN THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR
THE DATE...INCLUDING THE ABQ SUNPORT...SANTA FE...RATON...LAS
VEGAS...CLAYTON...AND TUCUMCARI.

AS SHORTWAVE GLANCES THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON MONDAY...WINDS WILL
PICK UP AND SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE IN THE EAST THAT CONTINUES TO
ADVECT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED TSTM NEAR THE
TEXAS BORDER BEFORE THE PSUEDO-DRYLINE PUSHES INTO TEXAS.
OTHERWISE...MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WIND. WILL LIKELY NEED A FEW WIND
ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE SFC GRADIENT IS THE STRONGEST.

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THE GULF MOISTURE WILL SLOSH BACK INTO OUR SE ZONES
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THOUGH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. IT
MAY SPARK A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WHERE BETTER GULF MOISTURE RESIDES
THURSDAY AFTN/EVE ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER. OTHERWISE...
TUESDAY-FRIDAY WILL FEATURE CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR LATE MARCH.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TRACK INTO GREAT BASIN/COLORADO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL AS
A WEAK MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME MAY SPARK ISOLD -TSRA G40KT. MVFR
CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TONIGHT BUT MAY NOT
REACH THE MAJORITY OF CHAVES OR ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. MOISTURE TO BE
SWEPT EASTWARD MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS STRENGTHEN.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AS
UPPER TROUGH/LOW TRACKS INTO THE GREAT BASIN/COLORADO
TONIGHT/MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MIN RH VALUES OF LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON WON/T RECOVER TONIGHT IN THE WEST AND
CENTRAL...WHERE ONLY FAIR TO POOR RECOVERIES AREA EXPECTED. IN THE
EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PLAINS RECOVERIES WILL BE BETTER AS AT
LEAST ONE MODEL SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BACK TO NEAR THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS STILL INSISTING A WEAK PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THIS IS NOT VERY OBVIOUS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
BUT THE MODIS AIRMASS RGB/GOES H20 IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
SOMETHING ORIGINATING FROM WHERE MODELS INDICATE THE SOURCE REGION
IS LOCATED. MORNING MMCU SOUNDING DOES SHOW LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. WITH A FEW BUILDUPS OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AS OF THIS WRITING...POTENTIAL FOR DRY
CONVECTION TO REMAIN IN FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.

MOISTURE IS SWEPT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER...DRY OTHERWISE...AND WINDY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER...WHICH SHOULD BOOST MIN RH VALUES A FEW PERCENT IN
THE WEST. HAINES WILL STILL BE 5 TO 6 SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND
OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS. CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY OVER THE
CURRENT WARNED AREA MONDAY.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE
MARCH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY MAKE SHORT
APPEARANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS BUT ELSEWHERE IT
WILL BE DRY WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND AT BEST FAIR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION
ALTHOUGH A FEW POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR ARE POSSIBLE NORTHWEST.

FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH THE FRIDAY WEATHER
PATTERN...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN...NO
FOOLING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 40 64 31 68 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 36 64 25 65 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 36 66 31 69 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 29 61 23 66 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 27 60 24 64 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 31 67 23 70 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 34 65 29 68 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 27 69 27 73 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 31 58 24 59 / 5 5 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 67 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 43 66 36 66 / 5 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 38 66 28 67 / 5 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 36 56 27 56 / 5 5 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 30 59 24 59 / 5 5 0 0
TAOS............................ 34 66 26 66 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 43 66 33 67 / 5 5 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 36 75 27 74 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 46 66 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 41 70 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 47 71 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 49 72 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 45 73 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 73 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 44 75 36 75 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 48 72 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 42 81 39 80 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 40 68 36 68 / 5 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 43 71 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 42 70 35 69 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 43 68 36 68 / 10 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 42 71 38 72 / 5 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 38 73 36 75 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 43 66 41 68 / 10 5 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 50 71 36 71 / 5 5 0 0
RATON........................... 42 77 33 76 / 5 5 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 47 77 37 75 / 5 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 43 70 37 70 / 5 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 50 79 44 77 / 5 5 0 0
ROY............................. 50 76 41 75 / 5 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 56 82 40 80 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 52 80 43 79 / 5 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 55 84 45 85 / 5 5 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 50 80 43 82 / 5 10 5 0
PORTALES........................ 54 81 43 83 / 5 10 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 49 86 41 87 / 5 5 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 53 86 42 87 / 5 5 5 0
PICACHO......................... 50 81 44 83 / 5 5 0 0
ELK............................. 46 74 41 77 / 5 5 0 0

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103.

34/99

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 210239
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
939 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.UPDATE...EXPECT UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THINNING AS THEY
PUSH EAST INTO BETTER RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE. LOW LEVELS REMAIN
DRY...AND WITH DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS SRN WI. WL LOWER
TEMPS IN SOME NRN AND ERN LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES. ALSO BUMPED UP
WINDS ON TUESDAY AS DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUH 850H ARE
EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN
ALLOWING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS...DESPITE PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDINESS. MORE RECORDS LIKELY TO TUMBLE ON WED.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...EXPCD DRY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR
THIS TAF PD. LOW LEVEL MIXING WL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS LATER WED
MRNG AND AFTN ONCE AGAIN.

.MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY FROM AROUND 18Z/20 SHOWS LAKE SFC TEMP HAS
WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OUT TO
MID-LAKE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
AIR FLOWING FROM THE SOUTHEAST PREVENTING FOG FORMATION DESPITE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION EXPCD TO ONCE AGAIN PREVENT
STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE ON WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FOUND JUST INLAND FROM THE LAKE DUE TO MUCH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL MIXING.

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG AFTN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RESULTED IN DRY
AIR MIXING TO THE SFC. DEWPTS TUMBLED INTO THE MIDDLE 40S DURING
THE AFTN AT SOME LOCATIONS RESULTING IN RH VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND
30 PERCENT. ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS
ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO USHER IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS FROM THE
CENTRAL GTLAKES AND NRN OH VALLEY FOR WED. HENCE NOT EXPCNG AS LOW
RH WED AFTN...BUT MAY DROP AS LOW AS 30 TO 35 PERCENT. ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENT FOR RAWS SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 40
ON WED SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHED...BUT NOT REACHED AT THIS TIME.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 202340
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

ANOTHER INCREDIBLY WARM DAY FOR MARCH IS UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 70S/AROUND 80F OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W...NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LOCALLY ALONG THE SHORES AROUND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. ONE MORE
SUMMERLIKE DAY IS ON THE WAY FOR WED...THOUGH IT WILL BE COOLER
AGAIN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND ALSO OVER THE W WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND SOME PCPN.

NRN PORTION OF THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BE SUPPRESSED
A BIT BY SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THRU MANITOBA AND THE FOLLOWING WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA/SRN ALBERTA. HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SEND SFC COLD FRONT SE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AND WED. ALTHOUGH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHRA COVERAGE WILL
BE INVOLVED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING FROM WRN TX TO OK...
MOISTURE FEED ALREADY PRESENT ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT WILL SUPPORT
SHRA. PER MORNING SOUNDINGS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING
300-400PCT OF NORMAL OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WRN GREAT
LAKES. FORTUNATELY...STRONG/PERSISTENT FORCING WON'T BE PRESENT TO
MAKE THE MOST OF THE AVBL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...HVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING WOULD BE AN ISSUE. MAIN FORCING FOR PCPN WILL COME
FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING THE SHORTWAVES
PASSING BY TO THE N ALONG WITH LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. EXPECT
SHRA TO BE CONFINED CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PROBABLY
WITH A PREFERENCE FOR THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT. GIVEN SLOW
MOVEMENT...FCST WILL SHOW A VERY SLOW SE PROGRESS OF CHC/LIKELY POPS
FROM W TO E TONIGHT/WED...AND ONLY AFFECTING THE W TONIGHT AND ONLY
REACHING THE E LATE WED AFTN. GIVEN THE AVBL MOISTURE...WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL...BUT AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...FORCING
IS NOT STRONG/SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD HVY PCPN. WITH RAINFALL
OCCURRING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND BECOME
POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD OVER THE LAKE. IF SO...FOG COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE NEAR THE LAKE ONCE WINDS SHIFT ONSHORE WHERE FRONTAL PASSAGE
OCCURS WED.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM/SUMMERLIKE NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN MOST
PLACES ONLY FALLING INTO THE 50S...15-20 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 40S WILL BE THE RULE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY/CLOUDS AND PCPN OVER THE W...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER THERE WED. EXACT TIMING OF FRONT AND COVERAGE OF SHRA
WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN TEMPS. FOR NOW...KEPT MAX TEMPS DOWN INTO
THE 50S/60S CLOSE TO THE LAKE. TO THE E...SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN FOR
TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S AGAIN OVER CNTRL UPPER MI...TRENDING
DOWN TO THE 50S ALONG THE SHORE E OF KESC.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

CLOUDY WILL DESCRIBE MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCLUDING SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WHERE DRY WEATHER AND A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD
DOMINATE THE FORECAST.

INCREASED POPS FROM THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH BIG BAY...WITH A
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED /OVER 0.10IN/ DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LOOK
FOR INCREASING SFC PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEHIND A
WEAKENING AND EXITING COLD FRONT SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA.

THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD INTO ONTARIO LATE
THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM THE SW THANKS TO THE 500MB CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES OF OK AND KS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT
WILL SHIFT TO MO BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HEDGE THE ONGOING FORECAST
CLOSER TO THE STRAIGHT MODEL DATA TEMP WISE FOR THIS PERIOD. EXPECT
THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FINALLY EXITING EASTWARD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE SFC LOW SHOULD LINGER OVER SE MN AND S WI FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING SE. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN TO W HALF OF UPPER MI FRIDAY...AND THE EAST HALF FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE 20/06Z RUN OF THE GFS HAS PUSHED THE 500MB ABOUT 50MI NW OF
WHERE IT WAS ON THE 20/00Z RUN...WHICH WAS CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS
OF THE CANADIAN/ECMWF CONSENSUS. EITHER WAY...THESE MORE MID TO
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS DO COME BACK INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
BETWEEN OH AND NC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS TO PUSH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FROM SATURDAY ON. WHILE A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL ONTARIO MAY IMPACT OUR WEATHER SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO BE ONLY A TEMPORARY SUPPRESSION ON THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WHICH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOK
TRICKY...WITH A COLDER BLAST OF AIR BOTTOMING OUT TO AN AVERAGING
-1C BY 18Z MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE GFS IS ALREADY BEING
INFLUENCED BY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 4C
/LOWEST AROUND 1.5C AT 12Z SUNDAY/. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A RETURN
OF COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ROLL IN FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...IT SHOULD BE UNLIKE OUR CURRENT WARM SPELL. STILL...850MB
TEMPS AROUND 8 TO 10C TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD BRING ABOUT A BRIEF
WARMUP. A STRONG MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF...AND SFC LOW CROSSING
MN TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE FORECAST THEN INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE IFR CIGS AT KIWD AND
KCMX. ARRIVAL OF PCPN TO BE DELAYED UNTIL VERY CLOSE TO FRONT BUT
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING WILL SEE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WITH STILL
A LITTLE SNOW COVER LEFT AT KCMX PER LATEST MODIS IMAGERY...EXPECT
IFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP THERE OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG TO ALSO DEVELOP AT
KIWD AND KSAW AS WELL BUT SHOULD STAY IN MVFR CATEGORY.

AS SHALLOW COOL AIR ENHANCED BY MARINE LAYER ADVECTS INLAND WILL SEE
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT KIWD ABOUT THE TIME THE PCPN ARRIVES EARLY
WED MORNING. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AT KCMX/KIWD BY MIDDAY AS FORCING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS. AT KSAW...EXPECT LLWS AS LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
THERE OVERNIGHT BUT WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP VSBYS MVFR OR
BETTER. OTHERWISE KSAW WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GIVE WAY TO A LIGHT AND
GENERALLY VARIABLE WIND REGIME AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SETTLES OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ON
HIGHER OBSERVING PLATFORMS...SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING MAY GUST
TO AROUND 25KT OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH TYPICALLY HAS
STRONGER WINDS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. CLOSER TO THE WATER SURFACE AND
DEEPER IN THE CHILLY STABLE MARINE LAYER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.
SOME AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...ARE LIKELY OVER THE LAKE THRU
WED...THOUGH THE FOG COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AND DENSE LATER
TONIGHT/WED AS RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THE LAKE AND FRONT PROVIDES
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AS STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E ACROSS
HUDSON BAY TO QUEBEC THU/FRI AND LOW PRES DRIFTS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TO 15-25KT. WINDS
MAY END UP STRONGEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE COASTAL
CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING WILL ENHANCE WINDS TO THE W OF THE APOSTLE
ISLANDS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO 20KT OR LESS SAT INTO SUN AS
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...ROLFSON

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 161012
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
612 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

A BROAD MID-LVL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING GENERALLY DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY FILTERED THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. INCREASING
925-900MB MOISTURE FM THE SOUTH COULD LEAD TO SCT OR BKN HIGHER
BASED CU AS IS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF WI AND LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTN. MIXING AOA 900MB SUPPORTS HIGHS INLAND FM THE GREAT LAKES
PUSHING WELL INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER 70S OVER THE FAR
WRN U.P. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK MICHIGAN AS LAKE BREEZE WILL BE ENHANCED
BY ALREADY PRESENT GRADIENT S/SE WIND ON FLANK OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE.

INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH
THE 40S COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI WHICH COULD RECEIVE ADDED MOISTURE IN S-SE
FLOW OFF LAKE MI. WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE UP
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER
MAINLY THE ERN COUNTIES...BUT DRY AND WELL CAPPED MID-LVLS FROM FCST
SNDGS SUGGEST DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR INITIATING SHOWERS.

GIVEN THAT MODELS HAVE THE WARM FRONT HANGING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA LATE SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ERN
COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS SHOW MLCAPES INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT AGAIN MLCIN VALUES INDICATE A
FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE SO NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS
WARRANTED AT THIS POINT.

WITH WAA IN MODERATE SSW FLOW EXPECTED...DECIDED TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS
ON SATURDAY CLOSER TO REG GEM VALUES WHICH SUGGEST THAT MIXING TO
875 MB SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
CWA AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE LOWER 80S FAR WEST IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
SSW OFF LAKE MI WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS EAST HALF...FROM LOWER
50S ALONG LAKE MI TO MID 60S WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AT
THE SFC...WARM FRONT PUSHING N OF THE AREA THROUGH SRN CANADA. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY SLIGHT PCPN CHANCES THAT WOULD BE LINGERING
OVER THE AREA ON SAT NIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO BE GETTING A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE LLVL MOISTURE. SO OTHER THAN MAYBE A FEW CU DEVELOPING
BELOW THE STRENGTHENING H850 INVERSION...EXPECT A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS NEAR LK MI AND E...AS THE
FOG BURNS OFF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MIXING TO NEAR H850 WOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S OUT WEST AND HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP
TOWARDS THAT. WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER OVER THE E WITH THE SRLY
FLOW OFF LK MI AND HAVE TEMPS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
AREA REMAINS UNDER SRLY WINDS WITH THE LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS. MAIN
ITEM OF CONCERN IS FOG OVER LK MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR AND HOW FAR INLAND
IT WILL PUSH WITH THE SSE WINDS. HAVE TRENDED THEM A LITTLE FARTHER
INLAND...BUT OTHERWISE DIDN/T MAKE MANY OTHER TWEAKS. PERSISTANT
GRADIENT WIND WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS AND LOWS UP. HAVE TRENDED
TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH MID 40S OVER THE E AND LOWER 50S OVER THE
WEST.

EXTENDED /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ANOMALOUS H500 HEIGHTS...AROUND 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID-LATE MARCH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
TROUGH OVER AMPLIFYING AND MOVING OVER THE SW CONUS WILL AMPLIFY THE
RIDGE UPSTREAM AND LEAD TO CONTINUED WARMING UNDER SRLY FLOW KEEPING
WARM AIR IN PLACE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PUSH N INTO CANADA ON
MON AND START THE SLOW EASTWARD TRANSITION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MISS VALLEY MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES NIGHT.
WITH THE AREA UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND SRLY FLOW...STRONG H850
CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE AND KEEP THE AREA DRY. EXTENDED MODELS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BACKING AWAY FROM THE COPIOUS LLVL MOISTURE OVER
THE LAST COUPLE RUNS...SO EXPECT DAYTIME PERIODS TO BE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS FLOWING OVER LK
MI/SUPERIOR...EXPECT FOG POTENTIAL TO BE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HAVE SPREAD THIS A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND OFF LK MI
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND TAPERED BACK IN THE DAY DUE TO
INCREASED MIXING.

CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON DEPTH OF MIXING...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR HIGHS IN
THE 60S OR LOWER 70S OVER THE WEST AND 50S OVER THE EAST WITH THE
COOLER FLOW OFF LK MICHIGAN.

AS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...00Z GFS ENS MEAN MERGES
THE UPPER LOW BACK INTO THE FLOW AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE UPPER MISS
VALLEY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z GEM/ECMWF ENS MEANS DO THE SAME
THING...BUT ARE SOME HINTS OF IT REMAINING CUTOFF A LITTLE LONGER.
EITHER WAY...THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARDS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE...EXPECT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN TO IN ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCES FOR THE
WED INTO WED NIGHT...AS THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER
THE NRN PLAINS FINALLY MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. PCPN
CHANCES FOR THURS WILL DEPEND ON IF THIS BOUNDARY DROPS SE OF THE
AREA...AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z ECMWF...OR HANGS UP AS SHOWN ON THE 00Z
GFS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY BUT THEN
THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRATUS/FOG FORMATION LATER THIS EVENING AS DEW
POINTS BEGIN TO SURGE OVER THE AREA. THE BEST CHC OF LOW MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KSAW IN AN UPSLOPE SSE FLOW.

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

EXPECT WINDS LESS THAN 25 KTS INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES REGION. VARIABLE WINDS INITIALLY
WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE OF A S/SE WIND THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO
RESULT IN PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER/STRONG STABILITY OVER THE LAKE. AT
SOME POINT...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF SOME RAINFALL
OCCURS OVER THE LAKE. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE
THE RULE...KEEPING FOG POTENTIAL LIMITED.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO
MELT THE REMAINING SNOW ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. MODIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY YESTERDAY SHOWED THAT MUCH OF THE REMAINING SNOW IN WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SOUTH
CENTRAL IS WITHOUT SNOW...BUT MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
STILL HAS SNOW COVER DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.

RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE SHOWN SLOW AND STEADY RISES THIS
WEEK...BUT SO FAR NONE HAVE EXCEEDED SPECIFIED BANKFULL VALUES.
WITH THE REMAINING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN...STILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SITES REACHING BANK FULL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

WITH THE VERY ANOMALOUS WARM SPELL WE HAVE BEEN IN...THOUGH IT
WOULD BE GOOD TO SHOW WHERE THE NWS MARQUETTE OFFICE STANDS ON
SEVERAL MARCH RECORDS.

YESTERDAY/S HIGH OF 51 HAS KEPT THE 50 DEGREE DAY STREAK
ALIVE...WHICH HAS NOW REACHED 6 DAYS. THE CURRENT RECORD FOR 50
DEGREE DAYS IN A ROW DURING MARCH STANDS AT 7...WHICH RAN FROM
3/24/1993 TO 3/30/1993. THIS SHOULD EASILY BE BROKEN WITH THE
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD REACH
DOUBLE DIGITS.

WE HAVE HAD SEVEN 50 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH THUS FAR. THE CURRENT
RECORD FOR 50 DEGREE DAYS OR WARMER IN MARCH IS 13 AND SET IN 2010.
WITH THE WARM WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE BROKEN. BUMPING UP TO 60 DEGREE OR WARMER DAYS IN
MARCH...5 IS OUR ALL TIME RECORD FROM 2000 AND WE ARE CURRENTLY
SITTING AT 2 DAYS...THE 11TH AND 14TH. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 60 AT NWS MARQUETTE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

MOVING ON TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WE ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT
21.9 DEGREES FOR THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE...WHICH CURRENTLY
RANKS 4TH FOR MARCH AS A WHOLE. THE ALL TIME RECORD IS 25.9 SET IN
1973...SECOND IS 22.4 IN 2010...AND THIRD IS 22.2 IN 2000. LOOKING
AT AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES...THROUGH YESTERDAY WE ARE CURRENTLY
TIED FOR THIRD WITH 1987 AT 40.6 DEGREES. THE ALL TIME WARMEST
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH IS 47.1
DEGREES FROM 2010...WITH THE NEXT VALUE OF 43.5 IN 2000. WITH THE
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...WE WILL LIKELY
REACH 2ND ON THE LIST. TO MATCH THE ALL TIME RECORD...WE WOULD NEED
TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER 53 DEGREES FOR A HIGH EACH DAY THE REST OF
THE MONTH. THIS MARCH WILL LIKELY GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST
EVER.

FINALLY...THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT NWS MARQUETTE
IN MARCH IS 44 DEGREES...SET ON 3/31/2010 AND 3/13/1995. THE WARM AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRY TO KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THIS RECORD TO BE BROKEN.

WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE MARQUETTE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
LOCATED IN NEGAUNEE TOWNSHIP DATE BACK TO 1961.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...SRF
CLIMATE...SRF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 142041
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
340 PM CST WED MAR 14 2012

.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE...FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...AND THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES.

WARM AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMED INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE STRATUS IN NORTHEAST
IOWA AND FAR WESTERN WI STAYED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON...PROVING THAT WE WERE UNDER A WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT.

CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET AGL. THE CU
ARE VERY SHALLOW DUE TO THE CAP. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BUT VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING. THE HRRR AND SPC 4 KM WRF NMM SHOW A
FEW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OVER 1000
J/KG...KEPT WITH THE TSTORM THINKING. HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS VERY
LOW. THERE IS VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND NO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE NEXT CHALLENGE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT
IT IS HARD TO IGNORE THE PERSISTENT MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING DENSE
FOG. GIVEN DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON
/CROSSOVER TEMPS/ AND FORECAST TEMPS TO COOL LATE TONIGHT AS
THE TROUGH/WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT COMES OVERHEAD...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOME DENSE. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PICTURE THIS SCENARIO SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SO
DRY AND TEMPS ARE SO WARM TODAY THAT THEY MAY NOT DROP BELOW THE
CROSSOVER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...DID NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT MENTIONED AREAS
OF FOG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THUR
MORNING.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ZIP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN MID THU MORNING.
THE CANADIAN MODEL IS QUICKER WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST THAN THE NAM. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE LAKESHORE
WITH THE FRONT...THEN REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AROUND 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS
COLD FRONT SCENARIO PAINTS A DREARY PICTURE FOR MILWAUKEE ON
THURSDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT DRIZZLE WITH LOW CLOUDS...GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS FOR A TIME AND COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAKE. LAKE MICHIGAN
TEMPS WERE BETWEEN 37 AND 40 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT PER MODIS IMAGERY
YESTERDAY EVENING.

UNCERTAIN HOW FAR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT ON
THU. THE CANADIAN BRINGS IT ALL THE WAY TO MSN AND THE NAM DOES NOT.
TRIED TO BLEND THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPS AND WINDS.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

WL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE ON HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM SOLUTION FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NUDGED FARTHER SOUTH DEEPER
INTO NRN IL AT START OF PERIOD. WITH MOIST LIGHT LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW INVERSION EXPCD TO CONTINUE...WL CARRY FOG
MENTION THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONFINE TO THE EAST...CLOSER TO
COOL LAKE MI ON FRI. MAY BE UNDERDOING AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER NORTH
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BUT
CONCERNED ABOUT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH THU NGT INTO
FRI. DEWPTS FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NRN
PLAINS. FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP AS BOUNDARY LAYER GETS BETTER
MIXED FRIDAY MRNG.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW. CAPPING DOES
DECREASE FRI AFTN BUT LACK OF ANY TRIGGER PRECLUDES ADDING ANY POPS
FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCE APPEARS FRI NIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES ALONG WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE. COINCIDENTALLY...
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CAUGHT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES THRU SRN
WI. WEAK LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BRUSHES SRN WI AS WELL...SO
ENUF EVIDENCE TO WARRENT ADDING SCHC POPS FRI NGT...CARRYING INTO
SAT. BULK OF SAT SHOULD BE DRY HOWEVER AS WK FORCING WL HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY. SAT EXPCD TO BE WARMER MOST
LOCATIONS WITH BETTER SLY SFC WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS PERIOD. APPEARS
AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM LONG-WAVE TROFFING WL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULTING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO MOST
OF SRN WI FOR THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD. RIGHT THROUGH 00Z/22...GFS
500H 5 DAY MEAN HEIGHTS REMAIN 100 TO 200 METERS ABV NORMAL ACRS SRN
WI. HOWEVER...GFS DIVERGING FROM OTHER LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LATER IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN MID-WEEK WITH UPSTREAM PIECE OF ENERGY DIGGING
INTO BACK SIDE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN LONG
WAVE TROUGH EDGING SLOWLY EWD THRU CENTRAL CONUS...WITH SFC FRONT
MOVING THRU AREA LATE TUE NGT AND WED.

MEANWHILE...LAST SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD PERSISTENT BLOCKING HIGH OVER ERN CONUS CONTINUING THROUGH
MID-WEEK...PREVENTING EWD PROGRESSION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. AS A
RESULT...GFS TRENDING TOWARD CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SRN PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW WOULD EVENTUALLY GET NUDGED NORTHEAST
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER IN THE WEEK BY UPSTREAM KICKER PUSHING
TOWARD WEST COAST WED NGT AND THU. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORING
CUTOFF LOW...BUT SEVERAL MEMBERS LEAN TOWARD MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION. HPC LEANING TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT SLOWER EWD
PROGRESSION...WHICH WOULD BE REASONABLE CONSIDERING BLOCKING RIDGE
TO THE EAST. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE WL BE LOWEST IN THE LATE PERIODS
OF THE EXTENDED.

TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD
HIGHS INLAND...WHILE LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPS LAKESHORE TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY COOLER. LATEST MODIS IMAGES SHOW LAKE MI LAKE SFC
TEMPERATURE REMAINING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT AND LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ANOMOLIES BETWEEN 3 AND 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS.

IN THE EARLIER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED...WL CONTINUE LOW POPS FOR
THUNDER SAT NGT INTO SUN AS PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WARM MID-LEVEL AIR OVERSPREADS SRN WI
AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE. CAPPING INVERSION PREVENTS ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRPN THREAT EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...

ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM EXISTS THIS EVENING...DUE
TO THE LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP THE TAF FORECASTS DRY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...AND WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE SOME FOG POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIFR FOG OR IFR CEILINGS. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG
POTENTIAL...BUT IT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD ENOUGH CHANCE TO PUT INTO TAFS.
WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING DENSE FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP UNTIL BETTER
CONFIDENCE DEVELOPS.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ZIP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN MID THU MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE ALONG THE LAKESHORE
WITH THE FRONT...THEN REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AROUND 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS
COLD FRONT SCENARIO PAINTS A DREARY PICTURE FOR MILWAUKEE ON
THURSDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT DRIZZLE WITH LOW CLOUDS...GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS FOR A TIME AND COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAKE.

.MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN A
NORTHEAST FLOW AND LAKE COOLING EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS
MOIST AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.

.CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MEDIUM.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MEDIUM.
WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KEKA 021128
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
328 AM PST FRI MAR 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN COMES IN THE FORM OF A STORM
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...COLD AIR OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST. SINCE GROWING SEASON HAS JUST
STARTED FOR THE COAST, ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE REDWOOD
COAST. ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE MENDOCINO COAST BECAUSE
TEMPERATURES THERE ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
WARM UP BY LATE MORNING, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A NICE DAY. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT
PASSING TO OUR NORTH TODAY MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO DEL NORTE
COUNTY, BUT OTHER THAN THAT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN
THE MODERATING AIR MASS, THOUGH PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR AGAIN. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS GREAT, MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME INLAND TEMPERATURES
HITTING THE 70 DEGREE MARK. EVEN PORTIONS OF THE COAST MIGHT HIT
60 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. ENJOY THE GOOD WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS.
THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN COMES IN THE FORM OF A STORM SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING RAIN LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. BUMPED UP POPS TO REFLECT THIS. IT'S STILL TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE QPF AMOUNTS, BUT SNOW LEVELS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
MOSTLY ABOVE PASS LEVELS. BEYOND THAT THE MODELS DIVERGE IN
SOLUTIONS, SO STAYED WITH MOSTLY CLIMO POPS IN THE LONG TERM.

.AVIATION...05Z MODIS 11-4U IMAGERY SHOWED FG ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS WITH OBS AT FOT AND O54 REPORTING VLIFR ATTM. EXPECT FG TO
DISSIPATE BY 17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT FG TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT MAY INHIBIT FG DEVELOPMENT TO THE
COAST.

.MARINE...NLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE
WATERS TODAY. HOWEVER...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO
THIS EVENING OFFSHORE S OF CAPE MENDO. LGT TO MDT NLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE WATERS.

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...

FREEZE WARNING FOR CAZ001.
FROST ADVISORY FOR CAZ002.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 282146
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
346 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE
GFS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (DEPICTED VIA WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA) WILL EXIT THE SWRN CONUS AND ENTER THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER TEXAS. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
SYSTEM...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGD BY DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT
TO ENTER THE HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT THEN STALL OVER THE CWA WED.
ISSUED LOW POPS FOR ISOLD SHOWERS FOR THE NERN CWA WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY NGT YET MAY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE NERN CWA. WARM TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE CNTRL/WRN SECTIONS WED AFTN OWING TO
PERSISTENCE. OWING TO STRONG WIND EXPECTED ALOFT...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG OVER LAND...DECOUPLING NOTHWITHSTANDING.

.MARINE...IN RESPONSE TO THE FOREGOING UPPER DISTURBANCE...
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE THAT
WARMER SSTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL COMBINE WITH MOMENTUM
ALOFT TO GENERATE NEAR 20KT WIND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TNGT
(VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WHICH EXPLAINS 20KT FCST RATHER
THAN 25-30KT SINCE 925MB WIND EXPECTED TO EXCEED 35KT)...GENERALLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM/GFS (LOCAL WRF SFC WIND SEEMS A LITTLE
HIGH.) WHEN CONSIDERING SST VALUES (SPORT MODIS SST COMPOSITE)...
SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND WIND
DIRECTIONS...EXPECT SEA FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE
THAT DENSE SEA FOG WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS AS
WIND MAY PARALLEL THE SRN COAST.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEEPEN ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE
ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY WARM DUE TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ONGOING SEA FOG FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM EJECT EASTWARD...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO
SOUTH TEXAS SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS GENERALLY PLACE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER A CAP IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE
PROFILE WILL LIMIT OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 66 79 65 80 67 / 10 10 10 20 10
VICTORIA 65 76 64 77 65 / 20 20 20 20 10
LAREDO 68 84 65 86 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 66 83 65 83 67 / 10 10 10 20 10
ROCKPORT 66 72 65 73 64 / 10 20 20 20 10
COTULLA 64 81 62 85 63 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 67 83 66 83 67 / 10 10 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 66 73 65 76 67 / 10 10 10 20 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT
ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

WC/87...SHORT TERM
RG/82...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 241039
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
439 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVG ACRS THE PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACRS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ISOLD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT. THE NAM PROGS AND MSAS ANALYSES REVEAL...
STRONG PRESSURE RISES TO THE N/NW BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT
SUSTAINED SFC WIND TO REACH AS HIGH AS DEPICTED BY THE
DETERMINSITIC NAM AND LOCAL ARW. WL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVSY AS
SUSTAINED WIND OR FREQUENT GUSTS SHOULD REACH CRITERION. (CAVEAT...
WIND MAY FALL BELOW ADSY CRITERION A FEW HOURS BEFORE EXPIRATION.)
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...NAM SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN MID/UPPER MOIST
CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATE ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY AFTN
MAINLY OVER THE SRN CWA. CONCUR WITH THE NAM WITH REGARD TO THE
TEMP TREND AFTER FROPA TODAY WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE 50S BY
MID MORNING YET RISING TO THE LOWER 60S BY AFTN. CONCUR WITH THE
NAM/GFS THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY SW OF TEXAS AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA) WILL ENTER THE CWA/MSA AFTER 00Z SAT THEN
EXIT BY 18Z SAT. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO GENERATE SCT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TNGT/SAT. ANTICIPATE
LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NAM MOS OWING TO CLOUD
COVER/DECREASING CCA. YET...COLDER WITH READINGS IN THE 40S. FCSTG
HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NAM MOS YET COOL WITH READINGS IN THE
50S WHICH IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING CLOUD COVER/AIRMASS.

.MARINE...COLD FRONT ENTERING THE COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT SEA FOG TO DISSIPATE AND WL ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVSY TO
EXPIRE AT 12Z. WILL MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNINGS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SCA OVER THE BAYS WHEN CONSIDERING STRONG MSLP RISES
AND RECENT OBSERVATIONS OVER LAND (ALSO CONSIDERING THE SST VALUES
BASED ON THE MODIS ENHANCED SST COMPOSITE PRODUCT.) SCA CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT YET WILL
DEFER TO NEXT SHFIT FOR TIMING.

.FIRE WEATHER...BASED ON EXPECTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND
TRENDS TODAY...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN ISSUES ARE HOW
TO HANDLE POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT COOL...WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY. WARM UP BEGINS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES AT LEAST UNTIL TUESDAY. MODELS THEN
DISAGREE ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO BRING UPPER TROUGH AND CONSEQUENTLY...
HOW FAR SOUTH TO BRING THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES MONDAY MORNING...BUT
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE HIGH SO DO NOT THINK TOO MUCH OF
RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY.
ECMWF...WHICH IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH...IS BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN
ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN...WHICH IS SLOWER AND NOT AS
FAR SOUTH WITH TROUGH...GENERALLY KEEPS FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWFA. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EASTERN 2/3RDS OF AREA
FOR TUESDAY DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AND POSSIBLE LIFT FROM UPPER
TROUGH...AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL ENTRANCE INTO
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE THAT THE
ECMWF IS TOO FAR SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY...GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
FETCH...SO WILL MAINTAIN A WARM FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY (MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS) AND ALSO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY (PROBABLY TOO CAPPED FOR THUNDER). WITH
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...COULD SEE SOME
STREAMER SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH
THUNDER POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OVER THE SAME AREAS...AND FOLLOW THE
GFS MOS MORE FOR TEMPERATURES. THUS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST AFTER SUNDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH MID WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 62 45 55 44 68 / 20 30 50 10 10
VICTORIA 60 43 55 38 67 / 10 20 40 10 10
LAREDO 65 43 57 46 71 / 20 50 30 10 0
ALICE 62 44 54 41 70 / 20 40 50 10 10
ROCKPORT 61 48 55 43 66 / 20 20 50 10 10
COTULLA 66 43 56 40 68 / 10 30 30 10 0
KINGSVILLE 64 45 55 41 69 / 20 40 50 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 62 49 55 49 65 / 20 30 60 10 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...
DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE
OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
VICTORIA...WEBB.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O'CONNOR.

WC/87...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 200941
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A BIT MORE WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LOWER MI AND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO
THRU KS BY 00Z/TUE. QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE LOW
SPREADING NORTH AND EAST IN THE INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT. FORTUNATELY THE MID-LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WL REMAIN DRY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ONCE AGAIN WARM TO ABV NORMAL BY
MID-AFTN. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE LAKE WL KEEP LAKESHORE LOCATIONS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER...AS LAKE SFC TEMPS MOSTLY 36 TO 39 DEGREES.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CARRYING NEGATIVELY-TILTED
MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO FAR WRN WI AND ERN IA
BY 12Z/TUE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z TO
AROUND 0.5 INCH DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO 40-50KTS AHEAD
OF TROUGH. RAPID LOWERING OF CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO LESS
THAN 10MB WITH 15 TO 25KT UPGLIDE ON 290 THETA SFC. DESPITE LAYER
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE NOT BEING ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...ALL GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT ON CARRYING PERIOD OF ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
ASSOCD WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF 3H JET ACROSS SRN WI BTWN 06Z AND
15Z/TUE.

THERMODYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS AIR MASS MOISTENS WHICH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN WI. ALL TECHNIQUES INCLUDING
ROEBBER AND COBB FAVOR AROUND A 12-13 TO 1 SLR. HEAVIEST QPF OVER
0.10 LIKELY TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST SO SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH 2
INCHES IN THIS AREA BY 12Z. WL BUMP UP POPS MOST LOCATIONS. NOT
SEEING MUCH FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO FWF SO WL KEEP QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS
CLOSER TO GUIDANCE VALUES.

.TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

CURRENT MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS
SRN WI AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WENT WITH HIGH EARLY MORNING POPS...BUT
TAPERED THEM OFF TO MAINLY CHANCE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE MID LEVELS. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOWING
ENOUGH LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL SATURATION TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING
IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF MADISON. BETWEEN THE DRIER AIR
POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT...WAA ALOFT...AND A
MILD SW FLOW AT THE SFC...WENT WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW THOUGH...OCCURRING
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING.

THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...ABOVE MENTIONED
TEMPERATURE SETUP SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO SNEAK BACK TO AROUND
40. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT NEW SNOW WILL HAVE ON TEMPS. WITH
HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 40S...LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW
30S...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THE SNOW TO MELT AFTER IT STOPS
SNOWING. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE LACK OF SUNSHINE...SO DID NOT GO
WITH WARMEST GUIDANCE.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM

STILL A BIT OF A MESS MID WEEK WITH MODEL AGREEMENT AND GENERAL
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. OVERALL PICTURE IS A
PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE SECOND ONE
STRONGER THAN THE FIRST. BIG ISSUES WITH WHERE MODELS DEVELOP THE
SFC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. HARD TO PIN DOWN A LOT OF THE
DETAILS...BUT DOES LOOK LIKE CONTINUED MILD PATTERN...SO WENT WITH
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WENT WITH CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH RIGHT OVERHEAD...THEN DRY SATURDAY.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE GFS BRINGS A
SFC LOW THROUGH SUNDAY JUST SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER...WHILE THE
ECMWF HOLDS OFF ON THE LOW UNTIL MONDAY...PUSHING IT THROUGH NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. OBVIOUS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TEMPS AND
PRECIP TYPES...SO JUST WENT WITH CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY UNTIL
THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERSPREAD SRN WI AFT 06Z TNGT.
WINDS TNGT WL EXCEED 40KTS AT 2K FEET SO WL INTRODUCE LLWS REMARK.

.MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER LWR MI PUSHES FARTHER TO THE
EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC WNDS WL ALLOW GUSTS TO 25 KTS TO DEVELOP BY
THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING THRU TONIGHT. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS
LAKE SFC TEMP 2-4C FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS TO MID-LAKE. WL ALLOW
SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE TUE MRNG...BUT MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED TUE
AFTN INTO TUE NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RETIGHTENS AND WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS LAKE MI TUE MRNG RESULTING IN THE TEMPORARY LULL IN
WIND SPEEDS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR LMZ643>646.

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 180907
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
307 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

FLURRIES ASSOCD WITH INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC FRONT SHOULD END EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WEAK FORCING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAVE PUSHED TO THE EAST OF KSBM CWA
AS WELL. APPEARS NAM OVERDOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AS
MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM. WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING RIDGING AND SHORT WAVE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST...WL
CONTINUE TREND OF DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING WITH FEW-SCT
CU THIS AFTN MOST AREAS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. SUNSHINE AND A LACK OF
SNOW COVER SHOULD HELP TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID 30S MOST AREAS
DESPITE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THERMAL TROUGH LINGERING OVER
THE EAST.

LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S MOST AREAS. AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SETS UP TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW MAY HAVE JUST
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CAUSE SOME LAKE CLOUDS TO PUSH ASHORE
FROM KMKE SOUTH TO KENW AFT MIDNIGHT TNGT. NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE TO EXPC FLURRIES AT THIS POINT.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY...MAY SEE LAKE CLOUDS
IN THE SOUTHEAST...PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MID 30S ANTICIPATED.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST. INCREASED POPS JUST
A BIT MORE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH ENOUGH OVERLAP IN
MODEL TIMING OF THE LOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MODELS HAVE NOT COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH VARYING TIMING AND TRACKS
OF THE LOW. THUS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE POPS THAT MUCH
FOR NOW.

ENOUGH OF A WARM LAYER IN THE NAM SOUNDINGS AND SOMEWHAT IN GFS
SOUNDINGS TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SLEET TO GO WITH SNOW FOR
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY RAIN/SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY.

WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING MONDAY...AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY
MORNING...WILL LIKELY SEE EVEN MILDER TEMPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM

A PAIR OF SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SIZABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF TO JUST GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW WED/THU AND SNOW
FRI. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SPOTTY MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH FLURRIES AND LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND CDFNT EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
RAPIDLY THIN AND PUSH TO THE EAST LEAVING VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PD. SOME CU MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN...BUT COUNTING ON
STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP CU MVFR AND SCT-BKN. HENCE WL BE MORE
OPTIMISTIC WRT SKY CONDITIONS WITH 12Z ISSUANCE. MVFR LAKE CLOUDS
MAY AFFECT ERN TAF SITES AFT MID TNGT.

.MARINE...COLD FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MRNG. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TURNED TO THE NORTH
UPON FROPA AND INCREASED TO 10 TO 20KTS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS
MID-LAKE TEMPS AROUND 4C SO ESTIMATE NEARSHORE LAKE TEMPS AROUND
1-2C. ENOUGH STEEPNESS TO THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE A
FEW GUSTS TO 22-25 KNOTS THROUGH 15Z...BUT NOT EXPCD TO BE FREQUENT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVY. NORTH WINDS WL BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AND DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
WRN GTLAKES FROM THE NRN PLAINS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 111039
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
439 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

.SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...OWING TO UPPER CONVERGENCE OVER
THE SRN PLAINS/NRN TEXAS TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE CWA/MSA. CONCUR WITH THE NAM/LOCAL ARW DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT THAT MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHEAST
TO NEAR 60S SW. CONCUR WITH THE GFS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY APROACHING WEST CNTRL MEXICO...WILL ENTER
THE CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT. THE GFS PROGS ISENTROPIC LIFT TO COMMENCE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. BASED ON GFS CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS AT THE 295K AND 300K ISENTROPIC LEVELS...
ANTICIPATE LIGHT RAIN TO COMMENCE OVER THE CWA AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
WITH REGARD TO TEMPS TONIGHT...SFC DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING. YET...WEAK CAA AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULT IN MIN TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.
EXPECT LOWEST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL/NE
CWA. SUNDAY...COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS AS EXPECT PCPN TO INCREASE
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA/MSA. ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO RANGE IN
THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 NW TO MID/UPPER 50S SE...CLOSE TO THE NAM
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT. GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRATIFORM RAIN.
DESPITE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...NOT EVEN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED WHEN CONSIDERING THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE.

.MARINE...AS CAA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...
EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
DETERMINISTIC NAM SUGGEST AT LEAST SCA WIND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
YET SCEC LIKELY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. CONCUR WITH THIS SOLN
ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING 50S/NEAR 60S SST VALUES NEAR THE COAST
(BUOYS/SPORT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE) TO THE MID/UPPER 60S SST
VALUES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS (MODIS SST). RETAINED THE SCA FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND EXTENDED SUCH TO 00Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
SCEC OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THINK RAIN IS STILL
LIKELY...ALTHOUGH QPF HAS DECREASED A BIT FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS.
HAVE ALSO NOTICED THAT LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA SEEMS A BIT
WEAKER...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS IS LIKELY A FACTOR IN THE LOWER PROGEGD QPF. HAVE NOT MADE
TOO MANY CHANGES IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...STILL GOING
LIKELY POPS WITH SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION STILL FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP. A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD QUICKLY END PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...WITH LOWER 70S BY
MONDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO INCREASE. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST LOW
EJECTS FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
MIDWEST BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT PWAT VALUES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1 INCH FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHEAST. WITH
CONTINUED CHANGES IN TIMING OF THE FRONT...CONTINUING TO GO
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS WITH 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE
AND PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS WILL BRING MORE RAIN
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 57 46 57 56 72 / 0 10 50 60 40
VICTORIA 53 37 51 48 68 / 0 10 40 60 50
LAREDO 62 43 53 48 70 / 0 20 60 60 20
ALICE 58 43 55 53 71 / 0 10 60 70 30
ROCKPORT 56 45 55 54 70 / 0 10 50 60 40
COTULLA 57 40 47 45 68 / 0 10 60 60 20
KINGSVILLE 58 46 57 56 72 / 0 10 50 60 30
NAVY CORPUS 57 49 58 58 72 / 0 10 50 60 40

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

WC/87...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 082124
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 PM CST WED FEB 8 2012

.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS WILL STAY
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER OR CLOUDS. DRY AIR IN THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AND SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS MAY SEEP INTO
SOUTHERN WI LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BY OUT OF THE WEST TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SFC LOW OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL BRING
INCREASING WINDS TO SOUTHERN WI BY LATE THU MORNING. A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS/23 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THU AFTERNOON.

DESPITE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WE COULD STILL RADIATE OUT FAIRLY
WELL TONIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. SUNSHINE AND
CONTINUED WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING MAX TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN TODAY...IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 37 NEAR THE LAKESHORE.
THOUGH TEMPS MAY FEEL A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO THE WIND.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CARRYING VIGOROUS CDFNT NOW
ADVANCING INTO SRN CANADA...FM 06Z-13Z FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...LINGERING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH
PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SCT -SHSN OVER
SRN WI INTO THE EARLY AFTN BFR DIMINISHING. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
WL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY STRONG DOWNWARD OMEGA ASSOCD WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION. HENCE WL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE
HALF INCH MOST LOCATIONS.

HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF-NAM ALONG WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW A
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED FORCING OVER THE NEARSHORE AREAS
FRIDAY MRNG...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN. LAKE SNOW PARAMETER REACHS
1-2 UNITS ON FRIDAY INDICATING MDT POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES. NEW MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE MI SEA SFC TEMP AROUND 3.5C.
THIS RESULTS IN THE DELTA-T INCREASING TO AROUND 17 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY AS 85H TEMPS PLUMMET TO BTWN 10 AND 18C BLO ZERO. 850-700H RH
INITIALLY AROUND 90 PERCENT DECREASES TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTN
WITH THE INVERSION HEIGHT ABV 6K FT. LAKE INDUCED CAPE OVER 200
J/KG. HWVR SEVERAL NEGATIVES FOR PRODUCING AN ENHANCED SNOW BAND
INCLUDED BEST FETCH REMAINING 010-020 DEGREES AND FLUCTUATING WIND
DIRECTION IN THE 1000-850H LEVEL. WINDS TURN TO 010-020 DEGREES BY
15Z FRIDAY...BUT THEN BACK TO 360 DEGREES BY THE EARLY AFTN. HENCE
THIS FETCH WOULD FAVOR THE AREA FROM MILWAUKEE COUNTY SOUTH TO THE
IL BORDER FOR A PERIOD OF -SHSN ENHANCED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE. GFS MEANWHILE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH LAKE EFFECT
THREAT WITH WINDS REMAINING MORE NLY FRI AND FRI NGT. FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT BTWN LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPCD FOR A TIME ON FRIDAY.
FOR NOW WL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH BY THE LAKE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

WL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE CLOSE TO THE LAKE INTO FRI NGT DUE TO THE
LINGERING N WINDS...BUT REMOVE THE THREAT ON SAT AS WINDS BACK TO
THE WEST. COLD AIR REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SRN WI ON SATURDAY...BUT
LACK OF SNOW COVER AND SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND 10 TO
15 DEGREES ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

APPEARS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WL TAKE PLACE
LATER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT FIRST...QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER OVER SRN WI THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPS
WL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

LARGE RIDGE WL CONTINUE TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM NRN PACIFIC LONG WAVE
TROUGH ADVANCE ACROSS WRN CONUS. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN BRINGING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST AND WRN GTLAKES MON NGT. STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE PWAT
VALUES TO OVER 0.5 INCH. FOR NOW WL BUMP UP POPS TO BETTER CHANCE
VALUES FOR -SN WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOW.

ABOVE SHORT WAVE WL CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF WI BY TUESDAY...LIKELY
RESULTING IN A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. WHILE MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME AGREEMENT WITH MONDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE...THEY
RAPIDLY DIVERGE BY MID-WEEK AS EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS HAVING
DIFFICULTY WITH TRACK AND TIMING OF NEXT STRONGER SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TO
ADVANCE INTO THE SRN PLAINS TUE AND WED. MILDER AIR WL SETTLE OVER
SRN WI BY MID-WEEK...SO THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF MIXED PRECIP OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE TIME PRECIP CHANCES RETURN ON WED.

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THU WITH AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
WI. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT LATE THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.MARINE...

INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WOULD CREATE HIGH WAVES FRIDAY...LASTING INTO
SATURDAY.

.CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MEDIUM.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MEDIUM.
WEDNESDAY...LOW.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KCHS 302151
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
451 PM EST MON JAN 30 2012

...FIRES PRODUCING SMOKEY CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE NORTH...WITH
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
KCLX RADAR DATA AS WELL AS 1KM MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
NUMEROUS FIRES HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND
EASTERN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE LOW HUMIDITY REGIME.
THE FIRES ARE PRODUCING SMOKEY CONDITIONS WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS 3-5
MILES AT TIMES. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS OF FIRES ARE GENERALLY
CONFINED WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 SO HAVE UPDATED OUR TEXT AND
GRIDDED FORECASTS TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF SMOKE IN THIS REGION
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE AIR QUALITY ASPECT OF THE FIRES AS EPA
GUIDANCE INDICATES VSBYS OF 3-5 MILES ARE UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE
GROUPS.

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILING ALOFT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AFTER MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN JUST A
FEW TO SCATTERED CIRRUS NEAR DAYBREAK. THUS...UNDER A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
30S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOCATIONS NEAR
THE COASTLINE WILL LIKELY BE MODERATED AROUND 40 DEGREES DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
WITH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE NORMAL PAST 70 FOR
MOST LOCALES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY BY
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST BY LATER
WEDNESDAY BUT KEPT IT RAIN-FREE FOR NOW. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE AREA ALONG WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND POSSIBLY EVEN PUSHES
THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE KNOCKED BACK A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY BUT
LIKELY NOT MUCH DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A VERY COMPLEX PATTERN WILL UNFOLD DURING THE LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT WE DO SEE SOME CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS INTO A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INTO SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY FORM DURING THIS TIME...WHILE A
FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. AS THAT SYSTEM
MOVES EAST AND WE REMAIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL
TROUGH...WE/LL SEE OUR RAIN CHANCES CLIMB FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SINCE THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS WILL
ACTUALLY EVOLVE...WE ARE HESITANT TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY...AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...BUT IF THE WEDGE DOES INDEED FORM...TEMPS
SATURDAY MIGHT BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN NOW IN THE FORECAST
AND/OR THERE COULD BE A MUCH LARGER RANGE THAN WE CAN DEPICT
SEVERAL DAYS IN ADVANCE.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHEN THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND NW MOVES
THROUGH...AT PRESENT IT LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY MONDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS TRUE...THEN RAIN CHANCES
WILL DROP OUT OF THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FORECAST
SCENARIO IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...BUT WE DO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THOUGH ON TEMPS...WHICH WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXCEPT FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR GROUND FOG
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY SHIFTS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT IS
EXPECTED...WITH SEAS GENERALLY DOWN TO 1 TO 2 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE COMMUNITY
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE FROM THE
NORTH FRIDAY. WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE IN THIS PATTERN LATE IN
THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IF A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER/NEAR THE WATERS. THUS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
DURING THIS PERIOD.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 301551
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
951 AM CST MON JAN 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...CONSIDERING THE NAM AND GFS DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT AND
SST VALUES (SPORT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE)...INCREASED
OFFSHORE WIND TO THE SCEC CATEGORY. BASED ON GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELIHOOD IS LOW. YET...WILL RETAIN ISOLD
THUNDER FOR THIS AFTN OWING TO SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER DISTURANCE. THE LOCAL ARW AND
THE NAM PROG MAX TEMPS GREATER THAN CURRENT FCST FOR THE WEST...
YET RAINFALL (LRD CURRENTLY REPORTING LIGHT RAIN)/CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT TEMP RISE. WL RETAIN CURRENT TEMPS FOR NOW.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CST MON JAN 30 2012/

DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...CIGS WILL FALL TODAY AS RAIN WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
HELP TO LOWER CIGS. EXPECTING CIGS TO FALL TO IFR AROUND 18Z AT
KLRD...MVFR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT KCRP AND KALI...AND
NOT TIL LATE AT KVCT. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER SUNSET JUST
FOR A SHORT TIME (MAINLY TAFS EAST OF KLRD)...BUT CIGS WILL GO
DOWN AGAIN IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KCRP
AND KVCT AND LIFR AT KALI AND KLRD BEFORE THE FORECAST PERIOD
ENDS. FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE...COULD BECOME DENSE RIGHT AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD KALI AND KLRD BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST GO
WITH MVFR BR AT ALL BUT KALI WHERE WILL GO IFR. WINDS NOT TOO BAD
TODAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY BUT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
AND NOT MUCH IN GUSTS DUE TO LIMITED MIXING. LITTLE THUNDER
EXPECTED SO NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST MON JAN 30 2012/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...SATELLITE VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST...WITH MOISTURE
ENHANCEMENT/THICKEST MID HIGH CLOUDS MISSING AREA (MAINLY SOUTH
AND NORTHWEST OF CWFA). NEVERTHELESS...ENERGY FROM SYSTEM (Q/G
FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE) ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE (MAINLY 300K-305K) WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT. GIVEN STABILITY THROUGH 850MB...THINK MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL BE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...AND SOME OF IT MAY BE VIRGA
AT LEAST INITIALLY. HOWEVER...COULD GET SOME THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT. MOST OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE/SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTY
THEN SLIDE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD
SEE A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS INSTABILITY
RETURNS AND MOISTURE REMAINS (CONVERGENCE SHOWERS). WILL MAINTAIN
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON TUESDAY NORTHEAST WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE
ABSENT. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE OVER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT FOR
NOW KEPT RAIN IN. CLOUDS/MOISTURE RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH TODAY WITH MANY AREAS NOT
GETTING TO 70F. MILD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST
LIKELY REMAINING STEADY IF NOT RISING OVERNIGHT. FOG COULD BE AN
ISSUE MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING (MAYBE SOME SEA FOG TOO BUT IT
MAY BE A BIT EARLY FOR SEA FOG FORMATION). WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH
SOME CLEARING OUT TO THE WEST...WITH SOME 80S EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR RAIN/SHOWERS TODAY WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER LATE...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS ACTIVITY (IF ANY) BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...EXTENDED FORECAST
REMAINS A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
WITH EACH MODEL RUN AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WED SHOULD
FEATURE THE APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT FROM THE NORTH WHICH SHOULD
DRIFT INTO THE AREA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
ACROSS ENE COUNTIES WHERE BEST MOISTURE DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED. GFS WANTS TO STALL THE BOUNDARY ALONG CRP/BRO CWA LINE WED
NIGHT BEFORE WORKING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURS WHILE THE
NAM AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH STALLING OF THE FRONT.
THE LATTER MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE OF RAIN CHANCES FOR WED NIGHT
AND THURS WITH A FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE GFS IS LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND MOVES THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH FASTER. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS ON THURS WITH LOW END CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND PRECIP
CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.
GULF MOISTURE THEN POURS BACK INTO THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THURS/THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT WHICH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BRINGS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
FRIDAY WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
BEND. FOR NOW WILL AGAIN BE CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES GIVEN LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN DRYING CONDITIONS.
VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEEKEND MAY TRY TO
SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BE LACKING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MAX AND MINS. A RETURN TO NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES THEN EXPECTED AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS
WEEK AND WEEKEND. HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS AT
NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES DURING MIDWEEK NIGHT TIME
HOURS WITH PATCHY SEA FOG ALSO POSSIBLE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 68 61 79 63 81 / 40 40 10 10 10
VICTORIA 69 57 76 62 79 / 20 40 20 10 20
LAREDO 67 61 81 62 82 / 50 20 10 10 10
ALICE 68 59 81 62 82 / 50 30 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 68 61 70 62 75 / 30 40 20 10 20
COTULLA 63 55 78 59 81 / 40 30 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 70 59 80 63 83 / 50 30 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 69 63 74 64 76 / 40 40 20 10 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

WC/87...SHORT TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 300335
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
935 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012

.UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW FROM BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN MN.
STRENGTH OF FORCING OVERWHELMING DRY LOW LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION SWEEPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. IMPRESSIVE LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO FWF IN THE LOW LEVELS SWEEPS
THROUGH SRN WI WITH THE WAA. AT THIS TIME...THINKING STRONGEST
FORCING ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL WI WL BE ABLE TO SATURATE LOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN LIGHT SNOWFALL...UP TO AN INCH. CENTRAL AREAS FROM
MADISON TO MILWAUKEE WILL PROBABLY SEE A PERIOD OF -SN BUT
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS REMAINS MUCH LESS...HENCE WL
CONTINUE CHANCE WORDING FOR THESE AREAS. LIGHT SNOW THREAT PUSHES
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST WITH WAA BY 18Z. STILL A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
PD OF -ZL AS THE WARM AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO SRN WI MONDAY
MRNG.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...THICKENING CLOUDS WL OCCUR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 5-6K FT. BRIEF BURST OF STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TNGT
AND MONDAY MRNG. POSSIBLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SN OR -ZL COULD
AFFECT TAF SITES WITH CIGS BRIEFLY LOWERING TO MVFR FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z MONDAY. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OR FOG.

.MARINE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS THE LAKE SFC TEMPERATURE
AROUND 2C. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY
MORNING SHOW A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 2K FEET...HOWEVER WINDS
BELOW THE INVERSION STRENGTH TO AROUND 25 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
DUE TO BRIEF NATURE OF STRONGER WINDS...WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
SMALL CRAFT ADVY AT THIS TIME...AND LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE ONE
MORE LOOK AT TIMING. THE WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE MI LATE MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 211028
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
428 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO SWING A H5
TROUGH THROUGH OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH TEXAS.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
TEXAS BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WASHING OUT. IN
THE MEANTIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS.
THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHICH HAVE PRETTY MUCH HINDERED
MUCH OF DROP IN VISIBILITY. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VICTORIA AND
CALHOUN. EXPECTING LAREDO TO BE LATE IN DEVELOPING FOG...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES STILL DROPPING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER...SHOULD
SEE FOG BECOMING DENSE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH DRIER
AIR REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THE FOG MAY LINGER WELL
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED BY THE LOW CLOUD AND DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...WHICH WOULD HINDER MUCH HEATING.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
BUT WILL QUICKLY BECOME ONSHORE FLOW LATE TONIGHT. A BIT OF DRYING
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AFTER THE PASSAGE. PATCHY FOG
WILL IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER NOT
THINKING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DENSE. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT
MORE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE
LIFT AND LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS EXIST. HOWEVER...DUE
TO LACK OF HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WILL ONLY CARRY A LESS
THAN 20 POPS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN LIFT AN UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE SRN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE MOVG THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGD
BY ALL OF THE FOREGOING MODELS TO ENTER TEXAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY. THUS...CONCUR WITH THE ECMWF/GFS GENERATING ONSHORE SFC
WIND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPROACHING THE SCA WIND CRITERION OF
20KT (PROBABLY 15-20KT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 20-25KT OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHEN CONSIDERING SST VALUES PER THE SPORT
ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE PRODUCT. THE AFTER EARLY WEDNESDAY...
MODELS DIVERGE REGARDING TIMING WITH THE SLOWER CANADIAN/GFS
DEPICTING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS/LOW CENTER STILL WEST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE AXIS EAST OF THE CWA/MSA (STRONG
Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE THURSDAY OVER THE CWA/MSA THURSDAY.)
NEVERTHELESS...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGD BY THESE THREE
MODELS TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA WEDNESDAY THEN OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. THUS...THE COUPLING BETWEEN SURFACE AND UPPER
FORCING EXPECTED TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY. (GFS
PROGS STRONGLY NEGATIVE LI VALUES/CAPES ABOVE 1500 J/KG/LIMITED
CIN.) THE GFS SOUNDINGS DEPICT BRN VALUES IN THE MULTICELL AND
SUPERCELL RANGES. FOR THURSDAY...THE ISSUE IS WHETHER SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA/MSA OR SHIFT EAST. CONFIDENCE IN ECMWF
GREATER THAN THAT OF THE GFS. NEVERTHELESS... WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF UPPER FORCING. FRIDAY...THE
GFS/ECMWF PROG SYNOPTIC SCALE DESCENT. THE CANADIAN OUTPUT (ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY) SUGGESTS A SLOWER SOLUTION. NEVERTHELESS...CONCUR
WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DESCENT SCENARIO. THUS...DRY FRIDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 58 79 55 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 70 53 76 50 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 79 61 83 54 77 / 0 0 10 10 10
ALICE 78 58 82 55 74 / 0 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 69 58 75 56 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 76 53 81 48 74 / 0 0 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 79 58 81 56 73 / 0 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 72 58 75 58 67 / 10 10 10 10 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

CB/85...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KABQ 132145
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
245 PM MST FRI JAN 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE TEMPS AND THE PAIR OF
SYSTEMS SCOOTING ACROSS NM SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
BEING VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS READINGS. TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUS...WITH
CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING...HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST FOR TOMORROW. WESTERN
AREAS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS WELL...THANKS TO SHORTWAVE
RIDGING.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT...KICKER SYSTEM WILL HELP EJECT THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC EASTWARD. AS IT MOVES EAST...IT WILL WEAKEN AND
OPEN INTO A WAVE. AS IT APPROACHES THE STATE ON SUNDAY...THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS WILL THE GRADIENT ALOFT.
THUS...TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WEST SLOPES SHOULD BENEFIT MOST FROM THIS
SYSTEM...THOUGH ATTM...ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. KICKER
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS COLORADO MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY WEST
SLOPES...THRU LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO SYSTEMS
MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL MUCH DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO HOW MUCH
QPF WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM. PERHAPS THE BIGGER STORY
WILL BE THE WIND ON MONDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BOASTING
700 MB WIND SPEEDS OF 50 TO 60KT...LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO
7 DEG C/KM...AND A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS
ALL POINTS TO A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AS WELL AS ALONG THE
I-40 CORRIDOR. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY START QUITE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGETOPS. AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER...WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES.

SYSTEM NUMBER TWO MOVES OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING AND AN ASSOCIATED
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS...COOLING TUESDAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES FROM MONDAYS READINGS. QUIETER
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 50

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE BIT
MORE AND MODELS SHOW A VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT REMAINS A CONCERN AND HAS
DRIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN TODAY.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND A POOR TO MODERATE RECOVERIES ACROSS MOST MID
SLOPE AND UPPER RIDGE AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE STATE INTO
SATURDAY. QUITE A FEW AREAS WILL SEE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS
ALTHOUGH THE SNOW FIELD AREAS NEAR GRANTS AND WITHIN THE ESTANCIA
VALLEY /AS INDICATED BY MODIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY/ WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE MORE MOIST.

WEATHER MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING THE FLOW ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THAT TREND IN MONDAY. MADE VERY
FEW TWEAKS TO THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WIND GRIDS. THE STRONGEST BREEZES
SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHER RIDGES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BASED ON THE MIN RH FORECAST LOCALIZED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER GROWTH CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
SANTA ROSA AND THE TEXAS STATE LINE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX FORECAST IS DEPICTED TO BE A 5 AND MAX
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THAT AREA SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THERE. ALTHOUGH
SNOW IN DECEMBER HAS HELPED TO FLATTEN SOME OF THE GRASSIER AREAS
LEFT OVER FROM THE SHORTENED GROWING SEASON IN 2011. VENTILATION
WOULD CERTAINLY IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AND MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE
LAPSE RATES FOR THAT DAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S RUN.

MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BIG WIND DAY AS MODELS FAVOR A 50 TO 60 MPH
10000 FOOT AIRFLOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY.
THIS WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE VENTILATION AREAWIDE INTO THE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT CATEGORY. MODELS ARE ALSO CONSISTENT WITH RAPIDLY PUSHING
OUT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INITIALLY STARTING THE DAY OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WILL STILL
BE TANGLING WITH CLOUDS THANKS TO THE MAIN TROUGH PASSAGE UP THAT
WAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND 5 TO 10 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WOULD MAKE FOR A NEAR CRITICAL DAY DURING
THE AFTERNOON PERIOD ONCE THE CIRRUS SHOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
DEWPOINT AND SUBSEQUENT RH FORECASTING WILL BE TRICKY FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. CURRENTLY HAVE MIN RH VALUES
ABOVE 20 PCT BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME UPPER TEENS WHICH WOULD MAKE
CONDITIONS A BIT MORE CRITICAL THERE. DID RAISE WIND SPEED VALUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TREND FOR
MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN...LOOK TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BASED ON BLOCKING FLOW AND LAPSE
RATE CONSIDERATIONS /AKA UPSLOPE/. MODELS ARE NOW DEPICTING A DOUBLE
PERIOD FOR THE PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY STARTING OUT WITH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OF THE MEAN JET STREAM OR TROUGH PASSAGE
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...WETTING PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR NORTHWEST AREAS...ESPECIALLY
THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHTER SHOWERS WOULD BE FOUND ELSEWHERE ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE EASTERN PLAINS WOULD BE TOO SHADOWED
WITH MAINLY VIRGA OR HIGH BASED PASSING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DRYING OUT THE FLOW FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT IS DEPICTED TO BE MODERATELY
STRONG SO THIS WOULD FAVOR VENTILATION A LITTLE BETTER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING. CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST SHOWS QUITE A FEW FAIR/S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOME GOOD TO VERY GOOD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WHERE SURFACE WINDS WOULD BE A BIT STRONGER.
TEMPERATURES WOULD START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY BUT WARM TO
NEAR AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

A SIMILAR FLOW PATTERN...ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY...MENTIONED
ABOVE IS DEPICTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. ONCE
AGAIN...SUSPECT THE FLOW WOULD LARGELY BE DRY WITH JUST A FEW WEAK
WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. VENTILATION WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE POOR WITHIN THE VALLEYS
BUT A TAD BETTER ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WOULD GRADUALLY WARM
AND ALLOW FOR SOME ABOVE NORMAL READINGS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN PLAINS.

THE UPCOMING PATTERN AND PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LATE DECEMBER IS
LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN WE OBSERVED IN JANUARY OF 2011.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 8 44 13 49 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... -1 45 5 47 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 8 48 13 48 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 0 50 7 50 / 0 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 10 48 14 47 / 0 0 0 5
GRANTS.......................... -6 34 -1 34 / 0 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 13 50 17 51 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 20 58 20 59 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 1 42 9 42 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 18 45 22 46 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 18 48 22 45 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... -3 37 2 35 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 12 39 14 40 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... -3 39 4 42 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 2 44 7 43 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 16 49 20 48 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 14 50 18 51 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 16 47 21 46 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 15 48 18 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 21 47 24 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 22 48 25 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 18 49 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 19 48 21 52 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 13 49 18 54 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 18 48 21 50 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 21 51 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 14 45 20 51 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 16 45 20 51 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 14 42 17 44 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 13 41 20 43 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 17 47 21 48 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 15 54 20 55 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 21 54 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 14 49 20 50 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 10 58 16 60 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 16 53 18 54 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 17 55 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 23 60 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 21 54 24 58 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 23 59 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 21 58 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 19 61 26 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 24 60 25 63 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 22 61 25 64 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 19 63 24 67 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 19 59 21 66 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 19 62 24 64 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 21 56 26 57 / 0 0 0 0

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

34/50

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 110335
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
935 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

.UPDATE...WL NEED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS MOST LOCATIONS AS
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET EARLY
THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE FROST THAN FOG BUT
WL ADD FOG MENTION INTO WI RVR VALLEY. 00Z NAM CONTINUES SLIGHT
SWD TREND OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LOWER MI THU AFTN
AND NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND GUSTIER WINDS OVER SRN WI DURING THIS PD. HEADLINES LIKELY TO
BE ISSUED EARLY WED.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW THE SFC
DEWPT. OTRW...EXPC VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WL NEED TO BRING LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCD WITH -SN INTO KMSN AFT
06Z/12...AND INTO KMKE AFT 14Z/12 AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE CENTRAL GTLAKES.

.MARINE...00Z NAM CONTINUES TREND OF INTENSIFYING SFC LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER SOUTH OF LOWER MI THU AFTN AND THU NIGHT RESULTING IN
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MI INTO FRI. BUMPED UP WIND
SPEEDS TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME WIND GUSTS MAY
REACH GALE WARNING LEVELS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI DUE TO STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
MODIS IMAGES FROM TODAY SHOW LAKE SFC TEMPS STILL AROUND 5-6C
FROM THE EDGE OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TO MID-LAKE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2012/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

QUIET WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING BEFORE
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE LOW REACH SOUTHERN WI WED
AFTERNOON. TRIED TO CUT BACK IN FCST CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY... SINCE
SATELLITE SHOWS VERY FEW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM UPSTREAM.

WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL COME A SHALLOW COLD LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH RADIATIVE COOLING. WENT WITH CLOSE TO GFS
MOS GUIDANCE...ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...SINCE THE PAST
SEVERAL NIGHTS HAVE DECOUPLED AND HAD MIN TEMPS LOWER THAN EXPECTED.
TEMPS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AGAIN WED MORNING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT AND SFC COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH THE AREA ON WED...WITH THE GFS QUICKEST...MAKING IT
INTO OUR NW FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z... AND THE ECMWF/REGIONAL
CANADIAN REACHING THE NW FORECAST AREA AROUND 00Z. WENT WITH
COMPROMISE.

EITHER WAY...THE MUCH COLDER AIR WITH THE PRECIP WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THE LEADING 500MB VORT MAX AND FRONTOGENESIS GETS IN HERE WED
NIGHT. THEREFORE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE ONLY SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN
THEY WERE TODAY...RANGING FROM MID 40S IN NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA TO
AROUND 50 IN MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA.

VERY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE COLL BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING LOW AND THE OTHER SFC LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE LIGHT WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR TEMPS AND COOL
LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S...A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. IF THIS HAPPENS TOO QUICKLY...THE FCST MAX
TEMPS ARE TOO HIGH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE DYNAMIC AND SNOWY SYSTEM FOR
LATE WED NT THROUGH THU NT. A LARGE DIGGING POLAR TROUGH WILL MOVE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO A LINE EXTENDING FROM MN TO OK BY 12Z THU.
THE POLAR TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT NEWD...BECOMING NEGATIVE TILT AND
CLOSED OFF WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS IL/IN TO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES BY 12Z FRI. THE ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A CONSENSUS OF MODELS PLACING THE LOW OVER
LAKE HURON BY 00Z FRI.

COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR WED NT WITH 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
PVA TO FOLLOW LATE WED NT INTO THU NT. THERE ALSO WILL BE SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE COLD
ADVECTION INCREASES. OVERALL...OMEGA AND LIFT IS CATEGORIZED AS
MODERATE. THIS IS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM AND A CONSENSUS OF QPF
GIVES AROUND 0.30 INCHES IN THE FAR WRN CWA TO 0.40 INCHES IN THE
EAST AND NORTH. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES...COBB TECHNIQUE...AND
ROEBBERS NEURAL NETWORK ALL GIVE LIGHT SNOW RATIOS EVEN WITH 15 KT
SFC WINDS...AS TROPOSPHERIC TEMPS BECOME VERY COLD. THIS YIELDS
5-6 INCHES OF SNOW OVER A 30 HOUR PERIOD. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
WIND FOR DRIFTING SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT WIND
GUSTS ARE TOO LOW FOR WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA FOR THIS SNOW EVENT. A WORST CASE SCENARIO IS IF THE
NAM IS CORRECT IN PLACING THE CYCLOGENESIS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN OR
IN WRN LOWER MI. WINDS WOULD THEN GUST TO NEARLY 30 KTS OR MORE
AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. THIS HOWEVER
IS AN OUTLIER FOR NOW.

THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY FOR FRI WITH
VERY LGT SNOW POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE EAST. HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY
REACH THE TEENS AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOW PROJECTED TO
TRACK SEWD ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY FOR SAT. THE LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO CHANGE BUT IT CURRENTLY IS TOO
WEAK TO FORECAST SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
REGION FOR SAT NT INTO SUN AM. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
THEN ENSUE SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON WITH A RETURN OF NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR LGT SNOW MON NT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE THE
CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FOR TUE WITH A RETURN OF COLD
TEMPS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED. A LAKE BREEZE IS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON AT MKE AND
MAYBE EVEN ENW.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI BEGINNING WED
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM MANITOBA. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS
EXPECTED OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SEE THE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY STORY ON OUR
WEBSITE FOR A BREAK-DOWN IN SNOW AMOUNTS AND TIMING.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY...
THEN INTENSIFY ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 092358
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
558 PM CST MON JAN 9 2012

.UPDATE...NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME.

.MARINE...EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVY UNTIL 02Z. CHII2 GUSTING TO
37KTS WHICH LIES AT THE EDGE OF THE NEARSHORE ZONES. ALTHOUGH THE
ANEMOMETER IS AROUND 60FT OFF THE LAKE SURFACE...THINK SOME
STRONGER GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS STILL MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
TOWARDS THE OPEN WATERS. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE SURFACE TEMP
AROUND 5C 3-5 MILES FROM SHORE. LINGERING STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
LOW LEVELS WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST MON JAN 9 2012/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING...AS LOW PASSING
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION MOVES AWAY. THUS...THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SUNSET...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING
LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS...BUT LEFT OUT OF FORECAST DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS SOMEWHAT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS IN THE MID 20S INLAND
WITH UPPER 20S NEAR THE LAKE SEEM REASONABLE...THOUGH IT COULD BE A
BIT COOLER IN LOW LYING AREAS.

NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION BOOSTING 925MB TEMPERATURES TO 4 TO 6 DEGREES
CELSIUS ALONG WITH MO SUNNY SKIES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

A LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUE NT AND
WED WHILE THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SEWD FROM
MANITOBA CANADA TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL AFTERNOON AND MOVE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA. SINCE IT
WILL BE AN ANAFRONT...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP PROVIDE ANOTHER
MILD DAY FOR WED...LOWER 50S ARE FORECAST IN SE WI.

BRISK NWLY WINDS AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO PREVAIL WED NT INTO THU.
A WEAK NARROW BAND OF 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AFTER
FROPA AND AHEAD OF THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LGT SNOW...MAINLY WED NT WITH BEST CHANCES IN ERN WI.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. TEMPS WILL
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM

THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NEWD ON FRI
WITH DECREASING NW WINDS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF A POTENTIAL ALBERTA CLIPPER FOR SAT...BUT IT WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY WEAK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LGT SNOW CURRENTLY
ONLY FORECAST OVER EAST CENTRAL WI. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE JET
STREAM WILL RETURN TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINGER UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS TAF SITES...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS GRAZING THE TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY...WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS OR SO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF VFR TO BORDERLINE MVFR FOG AT MADISON AND KENOSHA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE WITHIN DRY AIRMASS.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING
OF WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING FREQUENT SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS. HIGHEST WAVES WOULD BE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS GIVEN
THE OFFSHORE FLOW. CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE BORDERLINE AT BEST...SO
LEFT THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 00Z TUESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON WEDNESDAY. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ENSUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGH WAVES ARE EXPECTED TOWARD
THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KTAE 081011
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
511 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...At the surface, a ridge of high pressure remained in
place from the Florida Peninsula extending back through the Bahamas.
Meanwhile, a cold front had stalled to the north of this area of
high pressure, from northern Louisiana into the Carolinas. Other
than a few isolated showers, there was no notable precipitation
across the southeast corner of the country including our local
forecast area. However, the calm winds and (relatively) clear skies
associated with the high pressure were contributing to yet another
night of fog. The fog was dense in spots, but the expansion of the
dense fog was less uniform than in past nights, complicated by a
smattering of mid-level clouds slowly traversing north Florida and
southern Georgia. The stalled front is likely to remain locked in
place over the next several days, and thus persistence will play a
large role in the forecast. The focus over the first four days of
the forecast is related to a strong upper level closed low that will
be ejecting out of the southern Plains, and affecting our forecast
area Tuesday and Wednesday. The feature that will eventually develop
into this low is in the form of a digging trough currently over the
desert Southwest.

.NEAR TERM [through Tonight]...Compared to the past several nights,
the development and expansion of dense fog has been more complex
early this morning. This is largely because of a few isolated
showers in our southwestern areas, and some altostratus that has
been slowly moving east across our area. The mid-level clouds have
limited fog development across most of southwest Georgia, but it is
finally beginning to set in across the rest of the area. We have
expanded the Dense Fog Advisory several times, and this will be done
once more with the forecast updates recently sent out. The gap in
the advisory area from Panama City NNE to Marianna and around the
Dothan and Bainbridge areas will be filled in. KECP and KBIJ have
already dipped down occasionally to near 1/4SM. Despite a few
showers approaching Panama City right now that may cause the fog to
temporarily lift, the thinking is that it should set in once more
closer to daybreak. This will give us a more uniform advisory area.
With forecast soundings for the NAM and local 4km WRF-ARW indicating
that the radiation inversion won't break until around 15z, the
expiration time of the advisory has been extended an additional hour.

After the fog burns off, the focus turns to the possibility of some
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Although the primary surface
front will remain north of the area, there should be some increase
in low-level moisture advection with the southern edge of a ribbon
of stronger 0-2km moisture transport vectors clipping through the
northwest third of our forecast area. There is about a 0.3" increase
in PWATs through the course of the day over this area. The 4km-WRF
runs have been consistent across various flavors of the model in
generating some scattered showers in the afternoon. In fact, there
appears to be enough instability for some thunderstorms as well. The
WRF models, RUC, and NAM forecast soundings all show about 300-500
j/kg of SBCAPE extending up to about the -30C level, so there could
be vigorous enough updrafts for some lightning. It looks like
another warm day, and with negligible low-level advection the high
temperature forecast was a blend of the MAV, MET, and persistence.
Highs in the mid-70s should be about 10-15 degrees above normal.

.SHORT TERM [Monday through Tuesday]...Monday is expected to be a
quieter day comparatively to Tuesday. Slight shortwave ridging
ahead of the approaching trough, and the stalled front remaining
north of our area, are expected to keep precipitation chances low.
Other than immediately along our northern row of counties, the
forecast was kept dry with PoPs generally 5-10%. Partly cloudy
skies and a similar low-level temperature profile to what we are
experiencing this weekend should support another day with highs in
the mid-70s. For Tuesday, the closed upper level low will kick out
from the southern Plains and begin migrating east across the Gulf
Coast states. During the day, there should be a slow ramp-up in
cloud cover and precipitation chances from west to east. By 00z
Wednesday the majority of the models have the 500mb low centered
near Shreveport, LA, and thus the bulk of the deeper layer QG
convergence will still be focused to the west of our area. As
such, PoPs were kept on the low end of the guidance envelope.
However, we are still expecting some scattered showers to develop
over most of the area by Tuesday afternoon as low-level WAA
increases. Models are very reluctant to show much instability
prior to 00z Wednesday, and this makes sense as the colder core of
the mid-upper level low will remain west of our area. Therefore,
we were slow to introduce thunder during the day time. It looks
like most of the thunderstorm threat would be after dark, and that
is discussed in more detail below.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night through next Sunday]...Guidance has come
into good agreement for the early portion of the extended
forecast period. Upper low/sfc low will begin the period situated
near the Arklatex, with a cold front reaching southeast to the
Mississippi coast and into the Gulf. As the system moves eastward
through the overnight hours, good divergent pattern aloft will aid
in maintaining broad area of large scale lift and resulting
precipitation. Guidance also shows a 60-70kt mid-level jet moving
into the panhandle and reaching the Big Bend by sunrise on
Wednesday. This jet, along with significant low-level directional
and speed shear, will create a very favorable kinematic
environment for rotating storms. The weak parameter for severe
weather continues to be the amount of instability available. 00Z
GFS and Canadian are a bit more aggressive than the 00Z Euro with
respect to low-level instability, each showing up to around
500j/kg of BL CAPE right along the front. With the favorable shear
parameters, this would likely be sufficient to maintain a few
severe thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the
front sweeps across the forecast area. Will continue to monitor
this potential severe weather event closely over the coming days.

Much drier air will push in behind the front during the day on
Wednesday. However, without much in the way of cold air in waiting,
temperatures will only modestly cool off.

Significant uncertaintly exists as Friday and the weekend
approaches. Guidance has reversed itself over the past few days,
with the GFS now indicating a wet Gulf low by the end of the week,
while the Euro maintains a dry frontal passage. The guidance was
roughly reversed with the scenario 48 hours ago. Since the GFS has
maintained this solution for a couple of runs, and has some support
from the 00z Canadian, will begin to nudge PoP up for Thursday night
through Friday as low pressure develops over the western Gulf and
lifts east-northeastward. A colder airmass is expected to follow
this system into the area for next weekend.

.MARINE...The main marine concern over the first 48-60 hours of
the forecast is related to fog. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory was
hoisted through 16z for our coastal zones within 20 NM of the
shoreline. MODIS 1km 11-3.9u satellite image from 0703z showed
some hints of fog over the waters, especially over protected bays
and waterways. Another prominent area of fog was located between
Alligator Point and the mouth of the Aucilla River along the
northern rim of Apalachee Bay. It is uncertain if or when this fog
will dissipate, and that is something the subsequent shift will
have to examine in greater detail. As moist southeasterly flow
continues over the next several days and dewpoints steadily climb,
sea fog will likely be a continued concern over various parts of
the waters. The predictability of this is low, but the extended
potential for fog will be highlighted in the HWO and the synopsis
section of the CWF. Advisory-level winds still look like a good
bet around the cold front passage later Tuesday and very early
Wednesday. The other concern would be related to surf heights on
the Panhandle beaches Tuesday-Wednesday. The latest 06z run of the
SWAN yields 3-4 foot surf along Walton County Tuesday, and around
2 feet elsewhere. This increases to 4-5 feet on most Panhandle
beaches for Wednesday. This doesn't quite hit Surf Advisory
criteria, but nonetheless stronger and more frequent rips should
become likely by Tuesday afternoon.

.AVIATION [through 06z Monday]...Dense fog and conditions near
airport minimums will continue to plague area terminals through
the morning hours. An area of mid-level clouds is currently moving
across southwest Georgia and the western Big Bend. This cloud deck
will limit poor conditions at KABY and possibly result in some
improvement at KTLH by 08-09Z. The lingering clouds at KECP should
also keep conditions generally above airport minimums. VFR
conditions are anticipated at all terminals by late morning as the
fog burns off. However, fog will once again be an issue Sunday
night.

.FIRE WEATHER...A moist low-level airmass will remain in place
across the region into the middle of next week, with RH values
remaining well above critical levels.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 75 48 76 50 73 / 20 10 10 10 30
Panama City 70 57 73 58 69 / 20 10 10 20 50
Dothan 74 53 74 54 71 / 40 30 10 20 50
Albany 73 52 75 51 72 / 30 30 10 10 40
Valdosta 75 48 76 49 74 / 10 10 10 10 30
Cross City 76 47 76 48 74 / 0 10 10 10 20
Apalachicola 69 55 71 58 68 / 10 10 10 10 40

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Brooks-
Decatur-Early-Grady-Lowndes-Miller-Seminole-Thomas.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
Madison-South Walton-Washington.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for Apalachee
Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
to Destin FL out 20 NM.

Synopsis & Near Term...Lamers
Short Term...Lamers
Long Term...Camp
Marine...Lamers/Camp
Aviation & Fire Wx...Camp

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 010959
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
359 AM CST SUN JAN 1 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS WITH REGARD
TO THE UPPER PATTERN WHICH PROGS AN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA...TO
MOVE EWD AND OVER THE ERN CONUS BY MONDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
WITH AXIS ENTERING THE ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTH BASED ON MSAS DATA...IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA TODAY. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST ISOLD
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA ALONG THE FRONT (NAM/GFS QPF). THE FOG
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERING THE NAM WIND/NAM
MSLP FALLS/LOCAL WRF-ARW WIND OUTPUT/GFS WIND OUTPUT...EXPECT
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE YET BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THICKNESS VALUES REVEAL THAT THE MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. NEVERTHELESS...COLDER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY TO REMAIN IN THE
60S. WL DEFER TO THE DETERMINISTIC NAM (WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS) WITH
REGARD TO TEMPS TNGT/ MONDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
TONIGHT...AND THE LOWER 60S MONDAY. DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT/MONDAY.

.MARINE...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE AND SCA CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WHEN CONSIDERING WARM SST VALUES BASED ON SPORT
ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE.) AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS ENTERS THE CWA
FROM THE NW...WIND WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW SCA OVER
THE BAYS BY 00Z MONDAY...NEARSHORE BY 03Z MONDAY...YET CONTINUE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH 23Z MONDAY WHEN CONSIDERING SEA HEIGHTS
FROM WAVEWATCH OUTPUT.

.FIRE WEATHER...BASED ON EXPECTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY/WIND...WILL
ISSUE AN RFD FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS DRG THE 18Z-00Z
MONDAY PERIOD. NOT SUFFICIENTLY CONFIDENT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY
AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING WILL ALLOW MN TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DROP
TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA. MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED FARTHER S ACROSS THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND TO NEAR 40 ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE AND ALONG THE COAST. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. THIS WILL BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO S TX THROUGHOUT THE DAY LEADING
TO GRADUAL WARMING INTO WED. ALSO WITH THE INCREASING
DEWPOINTS...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WED NITE/TUE MORN. MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED/WED NIGHT AHD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT IS TRICKY AS MODELS
DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND POSITION OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS...BUT THEY
DO ALL SHOW A BAGGY TROUGH MOVG ACROSS S TX SOMETIME THU. MODELS ARE
SHOWING NO TO VERY LOW PRECIP AMOUNTS AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLNS...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SILENT 10 POPS BEGINNING ON WED AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EXTENDED
DUE TO YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT. AS FOR
TEMPS...DESPITE A COLD FRONT ON THU...MX TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
ARE PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART WITH MN TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL AT TIMES BUT GENERALLY ABOVE AS WELL.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 67 41 62 35 67 / 30 0 0 0 10
VICTORIA 64 35 61 31 64 / 20 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 66 39 63 39 69 / 20 0 0 0 10
ALICE 66 39 63 35 66 / 30 0 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 65 43 60 38 63 / 20 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 64 34 62 31 66 / 10 0 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 67 40 63 32 67 / 30 0 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 65 46 59 43 66 / 30 0 0 0 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT
ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN
BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 300958
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
358 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2011

.SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS VERY SHALLOW AND
MAINLY GROUND FOG AND SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY WITH THE SUNRISE. AN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ALOFT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TX WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS S TX THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BRING A WEAK SFC HIGH AND A ILL DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO S TX
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS PROG A COASTAL TROF TO DVLP AND THE
FRONTAL BDRY TO STALL AND WASH OUT. GIVEN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE DIRECTION VARYING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH GENERALLY A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAA WITH
THE WEAK FRONT AND DUE TO A DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED SUN...AM
EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. DUE TO THE MORE SLY
COMPONENT OVER THE WATERS...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PUSH INTO S TX. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE VISIBILITY AS
LOW AS 1/4 OF A MILE AT TIMES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE MN TEMP FCST A BIT TRICKY. MN TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE FOG COULD PROVIDE EVAPORITIVE
COOLING. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS. A MORE SELY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DVLP BY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DVLPS ACROSS N TX AHD
OF A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT. MX TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

.MARINE...
SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST AND BAYS WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEA FOG AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A MOD SLY FLOW HAS DVLPD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND BAYS. SLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS
ALL MARINE ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BECOME WEAK TO MOD BY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF/
CANADIAN CONTINUE TO PROG AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO DEVELOP/MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST/NERN CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...A COLDER AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE CWA/MSA. IN
PARTICULAR...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING NEAR SFC MSTR/LGT WIND WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF FOG SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
ANTICIPATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT (EXPECT MAINLY
SHOWERS RATHER THAN THUNDER OWING IN PART TO LIMITED CAPE.) STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW/SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA. EXPECT WIND GUSTS
TO REACH GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WHEN CONSIDERING THE SST VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
BASED ON SPORT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE OUTPUT (CAVEAT...10 DAY
SST LATENCY). OFFSHORE WIND WILL THEN DISSIPATE LATE MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ENTERS SOUTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF LOW
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND WIND WL LIKELY RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITION MONDAY AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THE
COLD AIRMASS/PROXIMITY OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS/LIMITED CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FREEZING CONDITIONS OF MANY LOCATIONS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. AFTERWARD...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED.
THE GFS/ECMWF PROG AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA/MSA
WED...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. YET...EXPECT MSTR TO BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR PCPN OVER THE CWA/MSA (RTN FLOW NOT EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE UNTIL TUESDAY AFTN.) THUS...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY-THURSDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 54 76 58 68 / 0 10 10 20 30
VICTORIA 73 49 73 54 66 / 0 10 10 20 20
LAREDO 77 51 79 54 67 / 0 0 10 10 20
ALICE 77 49 77 56 68 / 0 10 10 10 30
ROCKPORT 69 55 70 58 66 / 0 10 10 20 20
COTULLA 76 46 76 50 65 / 0 0 10 20 10
KINGSVILLE 78 52 79 57 69 / 0 10 10 10 30
NAVY CORPUS 72 56 72 60 66 / 0 10 10 20 30

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

TE/81...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 182015
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
315 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

TAKING AT LOOK AT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AT 19Z...THE NEARING SFC
LOW LOOKED TO BE LOCATED OVER FAR NW MN. PRESSURE CHANGES OVER THE
PAST 3 HOURS HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF -5MB ACROSS NORTHERN WI
THROUGH WESTERN LS AND UPPER MI THANKS TO THE EXITING AREA OF STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
KEEPING ON THE THEME OF PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE CORE OF THE 40 TO
50KT 950-850MB LLJ WILL BE OVERHEAD AT 00Z...BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING
TO SE ONTARIO. STILL...THE WIND WILL REMAIN OVER 30KTS AT THESE
LEVELS THROUGH 06Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR STRONGER
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
06Z...BEFORE LIGHTER WINDS TAKE HOLD.

WITH ASSISTANCE FROM THE STRONG S TO SW FLOW...850MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO REBOUND TO ABOVE 0C READINGS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM TO A MAX OF 6C INTERIOR WEST TO 1C
FAR EAST. WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEARING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT...PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOME DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.
LIMITED COLD AIR AND SFC TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY
DAYBREAK WEST HALF WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
MIX IN WITH LIGHT SNOW. A FEW POCKETS OF SLEET WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT AS LIKELY. THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...AROUND
700MB...IS WAY ABOVE THE MOISTURE LAYER...WHICH IS CONFINED AT OR
BELOW 850MB. CONTINUED A NON DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
MID 30S MOST PLACES. THE WARMEST AIR SHOULD REMAIN NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...AS COLD AIR DIVES IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE EXITING COLD
FRONT. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO -10 TO -3C BY 15Z MONDAY /WARMEST
S CENTRAL...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.

THE SMALLER SCALE WRF RUNS ARE PICKING UP ON A STREAM OF MOISTURE
HAILING FROM LAKE NIPIGON. GIVEN THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODIS IMAGE
WHERE LAKE NIPIGON IS NOT CONCEALED BY CLOUDS...THE DEC 16TH IMAGE
DID SHOW A FEW STREAMS OF LES SLIDING OFF THE LAKE...WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ICE COVER. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE THEME OF HIGHER CLOUDS CENTRAL AND PARTICULARLY EAST
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WSW
SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...WITH ONLY FLURRIES
MENTIONED FOR AREAS NEAR LS FAVORED BY THE NNW WINDS. OTHER THAN
SMALL TWEAKS...FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION /MON NGT THROUGH SUN/...

MON NGT...ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE E WL END IN THE EVNG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SFC RDG AXIS/SHARPLY ACYC LLVL FLOW UNDER RISING HGTS
ALF. ALTHOUGH A STRONGER WSW FLOW WL DVLP LATE AS THE W-E ORIENTED
RDG AXIS SHIFTS TO THE S...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATION CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH LGT WINDS UNDER THE RDG MOST OF THE NGT/MOCLR SKIES
WITH PWAT NEAR 0.10 INCH OR 40 PCT OF NORMAL WARRANT A MIN TEMPS
FCST AOB THE LO END OF GUIDANCE. THE LOWEST TEMPS ARE MOST LIKELY
OVER THE INTERIOR SCNTRL...WHERE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CALM THRU
THE NGT CLOSER TO THE SLOWLY DEPARTING RDG AXIS.

TUE...W-E ORIENTED SFC RDG AXIS WL REMAIN JUST S OF UPR MI AND UNDER
UPR CONFLUENCE BTWN NRN BRANCH FLOW THRU ONTARIO AND THE SRN BRANCH
FLOW OVER THE LOWER LKS. AS ANOTHER NRN BRANCH SHRTWV/SFC LO/AREA OF
SHARP PRES FALLS TRACK ACRS NW ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY...SHARPENING PRES
GRADIENT WL BRING INCRSG WSW H925 WINDS UP TO 35-40KTS OVER THE N
HALF OF THE CWA. OVER THE SRN TIER CLOSER TO THE HI PRES RDG AXIS...
WINDS WL REMAIN LIGHTER.

TUE NGT...CWA WL REMAIN UNDER THE CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN THE NRN BRANCH
IN CAN AND SRN BRANCH FLOW/SFC LO IMPACTING THE LOWER LKS. ALTHOUGH
COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE PASSING THRU ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC WL APRCH NRN LK SUP LATE AND SFC LO PRES WL LIFT INTO LWR
MI...THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ON TUE AFTN OVER AT LEAST THE NRN
TIER WL DIMINISH AS MODELS SHOW PRES RISES OVER ONTARIO IN THE WAKE
OF SHRTWV AND PRES FALLS TO THE SE CLOSE TO THE SFC LO WEAKENING THE
PRES GRADIENT OVER UPR MI. SOME MODELS BRUSH THE SE CWA WITH PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN BRANCH LO...BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND PASSAGE OF SHARPER DYNAMICS TO THE SE SUG GOING DRY FCST IS IN
ORDER. WITH WEAKENING WINDS AND RESILIENT DRY AIRMASS...EXPECT MIN
TEMPS TO FALL SHARPLY TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.

WED...AS ANOTHER SHRTWV IN THE NRN BRANCH MOVES ACRS SCNTRL CAN
TOWARD NW MN LATE IN THE DAY...ASSOCIATED COLD FNT WL ARPCH NW LK
SUP. SPREAD CLDS/POPS INTO THIS AREA PER 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...BUT
DRYNESS OF ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...LACK OF ANY MSTR INFLOW THAT WOULD
SUPPORT MOST PCPN ON THE COLD SIDE OF BNDRY...AND SLOWER SPEED
EXHIBITED BY 12Z NAM/CNDN AND 09Z/15Z SREF SUG ONLY SCHC POPS ARE
APPROPRIATE ATTM.

IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WL PERSIST WITH
CONTINUED POSITIVE NAO CONTRIBUTING TO ZONAL NRN BRANCH FLOW ACRS
CAN. THIS FLOW PATTERN WL ALLOW MAINLY MARITIME POLAR PACIFIC
AIRMASSES TO DOMINATE THE UPR GRT LKS...WITH TEMPS TENDING ABV
NORMAL AND PCPN BLO NORMAL AS THE MSTR LADEN SRN BRANCH LO PRES
SYSTEMS REMAIN TO THE S IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF EL NINO THAN
THE ONGOING LA NINA. ONE OPPORTUNITY FOR A NRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE TO
BRING SOME PCPN TO UPR MI WL BE WED NGT/THU. ALTHOUGH SOME LES MAY
FOLLOW ON THU NGT INTO EARLY FRI AS ARCTIC AIR WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN
TO -15C BRIEFLY SURGES INTO THE UPR LKS...A WARMER PACIFIC AIRMASS
WL RETURN ON FRI/SAT UNDER RDGING IN THE NRN BRANCH. LOOKING TOWARD
XMAS DAY...ANOTHER AMPLIFYING NRN BRANCH TROF/COLD FROPA MAY BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF SHSN NEXT SUN...ESPECIALLY IF THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS DISTURBANCE CAN LIFT SOME SRN BRANCH MSTR FARTHER N AS
INDICATED BY 00Z ECMWF.

COORDINATED WITH GRB.

.AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

INCREASING SW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WHEN WINDS DECOUPLE/INVERSION TAKES HOLD AND THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN ALOFT. THESE STRONG WINDS AROUND 50KTS AROUND 2KFT
ABOVE THE SFC WILL GREATLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 25KTS BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z MONDAY /WEST TO EAST/. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP LLWS AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. A TROUGH/COLD FRONT SWINGING
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH WINDS TO A MORE NW DIRECTION...AS
WELL AS INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF COLD AIR. EXPECT
MVFR TO HIGH END IFR CEIGS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT /LOWEST AT
CMX AND IWD GIVEN THE FAVORABLE NW UPSLOPE WINDS OFF LS/...WITH ONLY
MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT BY 18Z MONDAY PRIMARILY WEST AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN.
&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL EXIT INTO QUEBEC
MONDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH ACROSS LS THIS EVENING.
IN BETWEEN THIS NEARING LOW...AND EXITING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SE...STRONG S TO SW GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS WILL SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE
NW MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTER LS. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MONTANA
MONDAY MORNING WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...AS IT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE ENTIRE
GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE TOWARD
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND OFF SHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY. SW GALES TO 40KTS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND N CENTRAL LS. A TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LS TUESDAY NIGHT..BEFORE
DEEPENING WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER HIGH TO BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...BEFORE SLIDING TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ266-267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ264.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ263.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ250-251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KMOB 140542
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2011

.AVIATION UPDATE (14/06Z ISSUANCE)...LOW CIG AND VSBY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE. FOES IMAGER 11-3.9 AND MODIS POLAR ORBITER CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A LOW STRATUS DECK WITH LOW VISIBILITY IN A LAYER WHOSE
EDGE OVERLAYS A LINE FROM NEAR FOLEY TO BAY MINETTE AND ON UP TO
CAMDEN. POINTS WEST OF SAID LINE ARE PRETTY WELL SOCKED IN AND
PRETTY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT REDUCED PREVAILING GROUP
TO A QUARTER MILE AND VV001 FOR BFM AND MOB.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2011/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A SHARP UPPER RIDGE
AXIS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
QUEBEC. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES MOVES
LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN ALSO MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH SETS UP AN EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THEN SOUTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
RETURNS GULF MOISTURE ACROSS COOL NEAR SHORE WATERS. WILL HAVE
PATCHY FOG AREA WIDE TONIGHT THEN PATCHY DENSE FOG WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ULTIMATELY TURN OUT TO BE A DENSE FOG
EVENT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM BRINGS A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
DECELERATES WHILE MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT TO NEAR A LCH/JAN/HSV LINE BY 12Z FRIDAY THEN THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY NEAR 06Z SATURDAY. INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED
MEANWHILE AND HAVE STAYED WITH SHOWERS AS THE PRECIP TYPE EXCEPT FOR
SOME EMBEDDED STORMS ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN HAVE SMALL POPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY. POPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
GOOD CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH SIMILAR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID SEVENTIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER FIFTIES INLAND TO UPPER FIFTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY BUT DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL JUST HAVE
SMALL POPS FOR PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. A DRY FORECAST FOLLOWS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WHILE A PREVIOUSLY CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES ADVANCES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IS LIMITED AND SUPPORTS JUST SMALL POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE RETURNED TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS FOR SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY MODERATES TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY TUESDAY. /29

AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)..STUBBORN LIFR CIGS/LIFR TO IFR VISBYS ARE
ERODING AT A PRETTY PREDICTABLE RATE...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE
STRATUS DECK ERODING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 6-7KNOTS. HAVE ADJUSTED
TIMING FOR THIS AFTERNOON USING THIS. TONIGHT...GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT ANOTHER FOG/STRATUS EVENT...AND WITH A SWITCH IN THE SFC WINDS TO
SE WEDNESDAY...A PROLONGED EVENT IS POSSIBLE. WITH WATER TEMPS
RANGING FROM AROUND 60 OFF THE MISS COAST TO UPPER 60S OFF THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE...AND LOWER 70S DEGREE AIR MOVING OVER THIS
WATER...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE AL/MS STATE
LINE TONIGHT...AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PERSISTENT
IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VISBYS ARE LIKELY. /16

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL MEANDER
EAST TO THE NJ TO NC ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN GET SHOVED SOUTH AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA...TO OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGELINE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST BY FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT
IN THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FOLLOWING. /16

FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY
LATE NIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. /29

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 53 72 58 73 / 05 05 10 10
PENSACOLA 52 70 57 72 / 05 05 10 10
DESTIN 54 68 58 70 / 05 05 10 10
EVERGREEN 44 71 52 74 / 05 05 10 10
WAYNESBORO 46 71 55 75 / 05 05 10 20
CAMDEN 45 70 53 74 / 05 05 10 20
CRESTVIEW 45 73 50 75 / 05 05 10 10

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KLIX 130452
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1052 PM CST MON DEC 12 2011

.UPDATE...
11 MINUS 3.9 MICRON MODIS-GOES HYBRID SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG
WITH GROUND REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS...KHDC AWOS...AND
TRAFFIC CAMERAS INDICATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE OCCURRING FROM
NEAR HAMMOND TO JUST EAST OF BATON ROUGE TO NEAR DONALDSONVILLE
AND CONVENT. THIS FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST THROUGH METRO
BATON ROUGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS
GENERALLY WEST OF I-55 TO CONVENT THROUGH 9 AM TUESDAY. TO THE
EAST...A STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ABOVE 1000 FEET SHOULD INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION ACROSS COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS...AND POSSIBLY AREAS TO THE WEST NEAR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AS
THE CLOUDS TRY TO SPREAD WEST. 22/TD

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 45 66 50 71 / 10 10 10 10
BTR 47 69 53 74 / 10 10 10 10
ASD 48 67 52 73 / 10 10 10 10
MSY 53 68 56 74 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 49 67 52 70 / 10 10 10 10
PQL 47 67 50 70 / 10 10 10 10

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN
TANGIPAHOA...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...WEST BATON
ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.

GM...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...PIKE...AND WILKINSON.

GM...NONE.
&&

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 101812 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1212 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

.UPDATE...TWO AREAS OF CLOUDS PUSHING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. ONE AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PUSHING SOUTHEAST...WITH ANOTHER LOW CLOUD
AREA WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTING EAST. NORTHERN CLOUD LAYER
SOMEWHAT THIN...BUT STILL BRINGING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES.

SOME MIXING OF THESE CLOUD LAYERS POSSIBLE AS THEY SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT
MIXING...THOUGH MIXING IS QUITE SHALLOW. WILL ADJUST SKY FORECAST
TO TIME THESE CLOUDS THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK
GOOD FOR TODAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT CLIMB OF TEMPERATURES IN
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH CLOUD DECK FROM
THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME MIXING OUT OF THIS DECK AT
TIMES. HOWEVER...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS THINK BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY FOR A 2 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW FROM WEST TO EAST. BROKEN VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO CLIP TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES UNTIL
SUNSET AS WELL.

CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
TAF SITES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. IF
CURRENT MVFR DECK DOES NOT MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNSET...THIS
AREA COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BRING MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS. NOT CONFIDENT IN THESE SCENARIOS HAPPENING YET...SO LEFT
TAFS VFR FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

ALSO...LOW LEVEL JET CORE STAYS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
STILL...WINDS AT 1500 TO 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL MAY REACH
UP TO 40 KNOTS. THIS WOULD BE BORDERLINE FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CRITERIA. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS OCCURRING AT THIS LEVEL.

CLEAR SKIES RETURN TO THE AREA BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY...LASTING
THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN.

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...AND WILL COMBINE WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE TO
HELP BRING FREQUENT SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. THESE GUSTS WILL
GENERATE HIGH WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET...MAINLY TOWARD THE OPEN
WATERS. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS WAVES REMAIN HIGH TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH TODAY. MEDIUM
TONIGHT.

FOCUS TODAY AND TONIGHT ON CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. STRONG
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY ACROSS WRN GTLAKES. 85H
TEMPS WARM OVER 10C TODAY...STARTING OUT THIS MRNG AROUND -14. LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PARCHED WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.1 AND SFC
DEWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. STRONGEST PUSH OF WAA OVER NRN WI.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABV 10K FT. IR
IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF MID CLOUDS OVER NRN MN...MOVING RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. AREA OF LOWER CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ON 285 THETA SFC AROUND 600MB PUSHES THRU SRN WI
LATER THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN. HENCE EXPC AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
THIS MRNG...WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTN. CLOUDS WL ALSO KEEP TEMPS
SLIGHTLY IN CHECK DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS TODAY.

MID LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES IN TONIGHT. SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
TRYING TO INDICATE POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPING VCNTY OF UPSTREAM
SNOWFIELD THIS EVENING AND ADVECTING INTO SRN WI LATE TNGT. SOME
MELTING WL TAKE PLACE OVER NE SNOWFIELD...BUT AT THIS POINT
EXPECTING INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. WL CONTINUE
WITH M/CLR WORDING FOR TNGT. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPS LIKELY
TO DROP OFF A FEW DEGREES IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT THEN
SHOULD LEVEL OFF AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST COAST WILL BRING
WELCOMED WARMER TEMPS TO SOUTHERN WI. 925MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO
+4C...ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT BE MIXING THAT HIGH TO REACH THAT HIGHER
TEMP POTENTIAL. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MORNING
STRATUS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO LEAVING IT OUT OF FCST AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE EXITING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS...SO
SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 25MPH AT TIMES SUN AFTERNOON.

A FEW CLOUDS MAY BUILD INTO THE WEST EARLY MON MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT INVERSION
SUN NIGHT...SO MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAIN SUN NIGHT COULD BRING LIGHT
PRECIP TO EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST WI LATE SUN NIGHT...AND THE PRECIP
COULD SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI ON MON. ECMWF SPREADS THE QPF
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GFS AND NAM KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST DRY. ALL MODELS AGREE LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.

AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...FCST SNDGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP MOIST LAYER
SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE DAY ON MON. THE PROBLEM IS
THAT THE MOIST LAYER BARELY REACHES INTO THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE...MEANING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGER
THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA RATHER THAN SNOW. SNOW IS MORE
POSSIBLE TOWARD CENTRAL WI...SO SAUK/MARQUETTE/GREEN LAKE/COLUMBIA
COUNTIES HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW RATHER THAN JUST DRIZZLE.
PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUESTIONABLE MON NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVELS LOOK DRIER SO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...THUS
THE UNCERTAINTY IN PTYPE.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LIGHT PRECIP COULD CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S...SO VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY TUE NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL PUSH AN
850MB WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN WI TUE NIGHT. THEN SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND CROSS IOWA/WI OR
ILLINOIS WED NIGHT. 00Z GFS TOOK LOW ACROSS CHICAGO...A MUCH MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND AN OUTLIER FROM THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MODELS. THEREFORE...TRENDED FCST TOWARD THE
WARMER...NORTHERLY...MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE TUE
NIGHT...THEN TURN TO ALL RAIN ON WED AND RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA WED EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD TURN BACK TO ALL
RAIN WITH THE NEXT BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE AND MAIN LOW PRESSURE BY
LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

COLD AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION ANY LINGERING RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BY
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PERIOD OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY TO
AFFECT SRN WI FOR A TIME TODAY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPCD
INTO THIS EVENING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT POTENTIAL AREA OF LOW STRATUS
MOVING INTO SRN WI LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY PATCHY STRATUS OVER SRN
NE OVER DEEPER SNOWCOVER. AT THIS POINT...WL LEAVE ST OUT OF TAFS AS
EXPC LOW LEVEL MIXING OF DRIER AIR TO ERODE INITIAL PUSH OF HIGHER
SFC RH...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.

MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY FROM FRIDAY AFTN SHOWS LAKE SFC TEMP REMAINS
A MILD 6-7C. THESE WARMER TEMPS CONTINUE TO CREATE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE. SHIP REPORTS FROM THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING WINDS OF 20-25KTS SINCE FRI
EVE. DELTA-T CURRENTLY AROUND 20C DROPS TO 14C BY 00Z...AND
CONTINUES TO DECREASE TONIGHT. HOWEVER TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER SRN LAKE MI EXPCD LATER TODAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO S CENTRAL CAN. AS A RESULT...INCREASING LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND LINGERING INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE WILL ALLOW WIND
GUSTS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY.
OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW FETCH LENGTH WL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS LOWER.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 100929
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH TODAY. MEDIUM
TONIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A FEW CLOUDS MAY BUILD INTO THE WEST EARLY MON MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT INVERSION
SUN NIGHT...SO MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PERIOD OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY TO
AFFECT SRN WI FOR A TIME TODAY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPCD
INTO THIS EVENING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT POTENTIAL AREA OF LOW STRATUS
MOVING INTO SRN WI LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY PATCHY STRATUS OVER SRN
NE OVER DEEPER SNOWCOVER. AT THIS POINT...WL LEAVE ST OUT OF TAFS AS
EXPC LOW LEVEL MIXING OF DRIER AIR TO ERODE INITIAL PUSH OF HIGHER
SFC RH...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.

.MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY FROM FRIDAY AFTN SHOWS LAKE SFC TEMP REMAINS
A MILD 6-7C. THESE WARMER TEMPS CONTINUE TO CREATE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE. SHIP REPORTS FROM THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING WINDS OF 20-25KTS SINCE FRI
EVE. DELTA-T CURRENTLY AROUND 20C DROPS TO 14C BY 00Z...AND
CONTINUES TO DECREASE TONIGHT. HOWEVER TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER SRN LAKE MI EXPCD LATER TODAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO S CENTRAL CAN. AS A RESULT...INCREASING LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND LINGERING INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE WILL ALLOW WIND
GUSTS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY.
OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW FETCH LENGTH WL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS LOWER.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR LMZ643>646.

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 081012
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
412 AM CST THU DEC 8 2011

.SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGD
(GFS/NAM) TO MOVE SEWD ACRS THE NRN/CNTRL CONUS DRG THE PERIOD. THE
GFS/NAM SUGGEST LIMITED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE CWA BY FRIDAY. THE GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC PROG A
COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP DRG THE PERIOD ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED PCPN
LATE TNGT/FRIDAY. THESE MODELS ALSO PROG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH LOWEST
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT 295/300K OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA
FRIDAY. THUS...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY MAINLY OVER THE
ERN CWA/MSA IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVEOPING COASTAL TROUGH. LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT STRATIFORM
RAINFALL (GFS/NAM POSITIVE LI VALUES) NEAR THE COAST/OFFSHORE OWING
TO THE COASTAL TROUGH. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OWING TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. (MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT NEARLY SATURATED
CONDITIONS FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 850MB WHICH WL LIKELY DECREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR RADIATIONAL FOG. FURTHER...BASED ON SPORT ENHANCED
MODIS SST COMPOSITE...SST VALUES ALONG/NEAR THE COAST ARE IN THE 60S
AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN SFC DEW POINTS OVER THE SAME
REGION. THUS ADVECTION FOG NOT ANTICIPATED.) FRIDAY AFTN...EXPECT
LIGHT RAINFALL TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OWING TO BOTH THE COASTAL
TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA...AND
ALSO CONSIDERING FOREGOING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. FURTHER...AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INLAND...INCREASING SFC WIND
ANTICIPATED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY APPROACH SCEC
CRITERION. REGARDING TEMPS...WILL UTILIZE NAM MOS WITH SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WHILE ALL MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE MIDDLE AND SOUTH
TEXAS COAST...THEY DO DIFFER IN THE FINER DETAILS OF THIS TROUGH.
MAINLY...DEPTH AND POSITION. HAVE NOTICED SOME WAVERING BACK AND
FORTH RUN TO RUN ON HOUR STRONG THE TROUGH WILL BE. PREVIOUS RUNS
HAD A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP...BUT NOT REALLY SEEING THIS IN LATEST
RUNS. INSTEAD...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED THE TROUGH A BIT
FARTHER WEST. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO POPS AT THIS TIME. STILL
LOOKS LIKE CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT HARD TO REALLY PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE. AN SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN COOL...WITH SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE IN THE LOW 50S FOR SUNDAY. MAY SEE A BIT WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE EXITS.

BY MID-WEEK THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER
THE ECMWF HAS NO INDICATION OF THIS FRONT AT ALL. BECAUSE THE
FEATURE IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW UP IN THE GFS...WOULD LIKE TO SEE
ANOTHER RUN OR TWO THAT KEEP THE FRONT BEFORE PUTTING IT INTO THE
FORECAST. HAVE GONE MORE WITH THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME...KEEPING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 70S.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 50 66 48 57 / 10 20 30 40 40
VICTORIA 60 42 63 42 56 / 10 10 30 30 30
LAREDO 68 50 68 49 53 / 0 10 20 30 30
ALICE 67 48 67 47 55 / 0 10 20 40 40
ROCKPORT 60 51 66 48 57 / 10 20 30 40 50
COTULLA 67 43 62 45 54 / 0 10 20 30 30
KINGSVILLE 67 49 68 48 57 / 0 10 20 40 40
NAVY CORPUS 61 52 66 51 59 / 10 20 30 40 50

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

WC/87...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KCHS 050754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
254 AM EST MON DEC 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING MID WEEK
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WEDGE
IN PLACE WITH A SHARP COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY THE
SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE TO JUST OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST TO
VERY NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. ISENTROPIC ASSENT ABOVE THE
TROUGH AND INLAND WEDGE IS SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE THE HIGHEST. SCATTERED SPRINKLES AN PERHAPS A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT RADAR INDICATES ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES AS IT
MOVES WEST OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MORE
MOIST MARINE ENVIRONMENT. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG MAINLY THE UPPER GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO AT BEST FOR AREAS THAT ARE LUCKY
ENOUGH TO SEE A BRIEF SHOWER.

SATELLITE SHOWS CIRRUS GRADUALLY THINNING WITH TIME. THIS COUPLED
WITH INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP
AND GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN...POTENTIALLY EVOLVING INTO AREAS OF FOG.
IT STILL APPEARS THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG
WILL REMAIN CONFINED ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HAMPTON COUNTY
TO LONG COUNTY...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THIS
WILL PLAY OUT. GOES-EAST FOG PRODUCTS ALREADY SUGGEST STRATUS IS
FORMING OVER CANDLER COUNTY AS OF 05/0731Z AND SLOWLY EXPANDING.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG IN THAT AREA WITH PATCHY
FOG ELSEWHERE.

THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WASHOUT TODAY AS THE WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THE PARENT HIGH
SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE A BIT SLOWER TO DISSIPATE THAN WHAT IS BEING
DEPICTED IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE MEMBERS...BUT WE DO
ANTICIPATE IT DISSIPATING COMPLETELY BY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE ISENTROPIC PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN AND WITH THE AREA STILL LOCATED ALONG THE FAR
NORTHWEST FRINGES OF A MODEST SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER
RIDGE...THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOK TOO SMALL TO
MENTION TODAY EXCEPT OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS CLOSER TO
THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. MORNING CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST SOME BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
PERIOD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.
THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AGAIN TODAY
WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.
BEACH LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES TRAVERSING THE COOL NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 PER
1 KM MODIS SST DATA.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE LOCATED WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT...POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FRINGES OF LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
A DEEP SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH ANY ISOLATE SHOWER
LIKELY REMAINING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM.
RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN LOOK TOO SMALL TO A MENTION IN OUR GRIDDED
AND TEXT FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE OR TWO COULD CERTAINLY
MOVE ONSHORE AND AFFECT MAINLY COASTAL LOCATIONS. INCREASING
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING 925-700MB FLOW WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS TONIGHT WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY
EXHIBIT BUILD DOWN CHARACTERISTICS AND YIELDING AREAS OF FOG ONCE
AGAIN. MOST OF THE TABULAR GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT DENSE FOG IN
PLACES... BUT NOT READY TO BIT OFF ON THAT JUST YET. WILL
INTRODUCE FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...BUT WITHHOLD ANY
MENTION OF DENSE FOG GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 AT THE
BEACHES.

ON TUESDAY...THE FIRST PUSH EASTWARD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING THE FRONT INTO UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA BY AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT SLOWS DOWN A LITTLE WAITING
FOR THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE MID 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ASSUMING THE
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DONT BECOME TOO STUBBORN AND HANG AROUND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT I CANT RULE OUT A SHOWER BY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 16 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
95.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE BOTH SPED
UP THE FRONT...WITH THE ECMWF NOW BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 TO 9 HOURS
SLOWER. SINCE BOTH MODELS ARE FASTER...I HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION...BUT I AM STILL CLOSER TO THE GFS
THAN ECMWF...MEANING I HOLD ON TO ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOULD THE ECMWF TURN OUT TO BE MORE
CORRECT...THE MAX TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED WITH
FUTURE FORECASTS.

SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING...I AM RUNNING
JUST CHANCE SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE
OVERALL FEELING FOR THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED WAVE DEVELOPING
LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH OF THE CWA.

AS THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT DEEPENS...THE COLD FRONT WILL
START TO ACCELERATE INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN NOTICEABLY ON THURSDAY. I HAVE LEFT OUT THE CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
ALL BUT THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP CLOUDS IN FOR A WHILE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
SKIES START TO CLEAR UP FROM WEST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
ON SATURDAY. FOR A CHANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS DO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY
OF A WAVE DEVELOPING SUNDAY IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THROW A FEW SHOWERS BACK TOWARD THE COAST...SO I HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
TAKE PLACE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST. PARAMETERS FOR LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG LOOK TO BECOME BETTER ALIGNED WEST OF THE TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUIDANCE DOES NOT HIT CONDITIONS ANY
LOWER THAN MVFR AT EITHER SITE WHICH MATCHES GOING TRENDS WELL.
WILL INTRODUCE MORE OPTIMISTIC CONDITIONS FOR THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE...BUT STILL SHOW A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR AT KCHS AND A
PREVAILING GROUP FOR MVFR AT KSAV. THERE IS STILL A MODEST
CHANCE...30-40 PERCENT...THAT LOWER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY AT KSAV. KSAV WILL BE MORE PRONE TO SEE FOG/STRATUS
OOZE IN FROM THE WEST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WILL ISSUE AMENDMENTS AS
NEEDED. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FOR BOTH THERMALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WE COULD DEFINITELY SEE SOME IFR
CIGS/VSBYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...BREAKING OUT BY LATE MORNING. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES. SEAS REMAINS
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW...BUT ANY OCCURRENCES OF 6
FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. PATCHES OF FOG
COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR LATER TONIGHT.

STUBBORN 6 FOOT SEAS IN OUTER GEORGIA WATERS SHOULD FINALLY COME
DOWN WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THEN WILL COME BACK UP FOR ABOUT 24
HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD ADVECTION PATTERN ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY GET SOME SEA
FOG...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO GET UP INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AFTER THE COLD
FRONT GOES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BUT RIGHT NOW IF KEEP THEM BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

ONCE WE GET TO SATURDAY...WE MAY START HAVING TO WATCH FOR A PINCHED
GRADIENT/WEDGE SCENARIO...BUT IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO TRY AND PIN
DOWN DETAILS.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ374.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 012106
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
306 PM CST THU DEC 1 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...AS EXPECTED THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL BEND WHERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL ONGOING. AS
THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS OVERNIGHT...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 09Z AS THE
RICHER MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL HOLD INTO THE
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES. THE
SHOULD LIMIT HEATING ON FRIDAY WITH READINGS STOPPING A FEW
DEGREES SHORT OF WHAT WE SAW TODAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE GFS AND ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC APPEAR TO CONVERGE WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER PATTERN.
THE SOLNS PROG THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY SATURDAY-MONDAY...THEN BECOME PROGRESSIVE AND MERGE
WITH A DEVELOPING NRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THE COMPOSITE THEN MOVES
EAST...WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER HOWEVER. THE FOREGOING NRN SYSTEM WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF
THE COLD AIR ENTERING THE CWA/MSA MONDAY/TUESDAY (ALTHOUGH FROPA
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING) THUS...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED SATURDAY OVER THE CWA/MSA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW TO
THE WEST. FROM BOTH AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSPECTIVE AND UPPER JET
DYNAMICS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE...AT LEAST ISOLD LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...EXPECT THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT AND UPPER DYNAMICS TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLD THUNDER ALONG AND
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WHILE COLDER AIR ENTERS THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES (THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS
STILL TO THE WEST) AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS
LIKELY TO PERSIST BASED ON GFS ISENTROPIC LIFT/LOW CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS AT 300K...YET GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST. RECALL HWR THAT THE GFS IS FASTER. THE SLOWER ECMWF SUGGEST
PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY. HWR WILL FCST THE PCPN TO END OVER THE CWA BY
12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS PROGS 06-12Z TUESDAY 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES CLOSE TO A FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CNTRL/WRN CWA. WL FCST MIN TEMPS TUESDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
HWR WET BULB TEMPS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF ICE PELLETS.
THE CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME AND
THUS WILL NOT FCST SUCH. IN RESPONSE TO ARCTIC AIR...AND CONSIDERING
WARM SST VALUES OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS (SPORT MODIS
ENHANCED COMPOSITE SST 1-KM)...GALE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY. HWR FOR NOW...WILL SIMPLY FCST
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. DRY AND FREEZING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OWING TO STG RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT TEMPS TO MODIFY SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AFTN-
THURSDAY. CONCUR WITH GFS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE
WED/THURSDAY (BASED ON THE DEVELOPING UPPER PATTERN AFTER THE
FOREGOING UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVES EAST.) WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN FOR THE ERN CWA/MSA THURSDAY BASED ON GFS
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT 300K.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 62 78 68 82 63 / 20 20 10 20 30
VICTORIA 60 75 63 80 58 / 20 30 10 30 40
LAREDO 62 79 65 84 58 / 10 20 10 20 30
ALICE 60 79 65 82 60 / 20 20 10 20 30
ROCKPORT 64 74 67 79 64 / 20 20 10 20 40
COTULLA 59 77 63 82 55 / 10 30 20 20 40
KINGSVILLE 62 79 66 82 63 / 20 20 10 20 30
NAVY CORPUS 64 76 68 80 65 / 20 20 10 20 30

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MLG/77...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 302128
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CST WED NOV 30 2011

.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THOUGH WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE...HIGHER WINDS ALOFT AND THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS COLD
AS LAST NIGHT. ONLY CONCERN IS TOWARD MORNING WHEN WINDS ALOFT BACK
OFF A BIT. WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...TEMPS COULD LOCALLY
DROP A FEW DEGREES QUICKLY IN POCKETS OF CLEARING. OVERALL
THOUGH...LOOKS AROUND 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MILDEST TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS LIKELY BACK INTO THE LOW
40S. STILL EXPECTING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS
SOUNDINGS PRETTY SATURATED FOR A TIME...WITH SOME OK OMEGA WITHIN
THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A LOT OF SNOW...MAYBE
UP TO A HALF INCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM LONE ROCK TO WEST
BEND. STILL...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

WEAKENING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN WI BY 06Z/FRI. HIGHER COLUMN RH WITH PWAT
VALUES JUST OVER ONE HALF INCH. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO BE USED BY LOW-MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION TO RESULT IN AREAS OF MOSTLY -SN OVER SRN WI FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY EVE. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING LAKE SFC TEMPS
HOLDING IN THE MID 40S...SO AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE THU NGT...WL
NEED TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SOME -RA MIXED IN THE WITH THE SNOW.
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCD WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z/FRI.
HOWEVER...LINGERING COLUMN MOISTURE AND ONSHORE COMPONENT CONTINUES
FROM 06Z-12Z AS THE DELTA-T INCREASES TO AROUND 13 DEGREES. DESPITE
ONSHORE WINDS ONLY EXTENDING FROM 1 TO 3K FEET...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO POSSIBLY TRIGGER LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKESHORE COUNTIES.
DRIER AIR INTRUSION REDUCES THREAT TO FLURRIES/SPRINKLES FARTHER
NORTH TOWARD PORT WASH AND SHEBOYGAN. ONSHORE COMPONENT WEAKENS BY
12Z AS LOW LEVELS DRY OUT. DUE TO WEAKER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...FOR NOW.

EXPECT A LARGE GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO LINGERING LAKE EFFECT AND CLOUDS IN
THE FAR EAST AND CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE WEST.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TAPPING INTO WARMER AND MOISTER AIR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THESE INCREASING WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
PHASING OF A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
FRIDAY. INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PWAT VALUES OF THREE
QUARTERS INCH SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN WI ON SAT. THICKENING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT
MRNG...REDUCING THREAT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. LATEST GFS REMAINS
IN AGREEMENT WITH NAM AND ECMWF IN STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMING
LOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MOSTLY -RA ON SATURDAY...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MIXTURE IN NORTHWEST CWA IN THE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE SHOW UP RIGHT AWAY FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AGREEMENT
BETWEEN ECWMF AND GFS BRINGING PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE WESTERN
GTLAKES SAT NGT AND SUN. THIS ENERGY WAS KICKED NORTHEAST BY
REINTENSIFICATION OF CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS ON SAT. IN
ADDITION...SECONDARY CLOSED LOW SIMULTANEOUSLY SETTLES INTO NRN
PLAINS/SRN CANADA AREA AT THE SAME TIME. BOTH SYSTEMS RESULT IN
INCREASING S-SW FLOW OVER CENTRAL CONUS WHICH IS ABLE TO PULL
WARMER...MOIST CONDITIONS NWD INTO SRN WI.

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WL LEAN MORE ON ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WHICH TREND TOWARD FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY REMAINING POSITIVELY TILTED
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SAT NGT AND EARLY SUN WHICH MAKES SENSE
CONSIDERING UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS. WITH MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...LOW LEVELS COOL OFF MORE RAPIDLY SAT NGT INTO
EARLY SUN RESULTING IN QUICKER CHANGEOVER FROM RA TO SN. GFS
SOLUTION WOULD HOLD OFF ON CHANGEOVER UNTIL SUN. HOWEVER...DESPITE
FAVORING QUICKER CHANGEOVER...THINKING QPF AND RESULTANT SNOWFALL
WOULD BE LIGHTER DUE TO FASTER SOLUTION AND STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING REMAINING NORTH AND SOUTH OF SRN WI.

COLD AIR FUNNELS INTO SRN WI BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH 85H
TEMPS FALLING TO -6 TO -8C. BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON
SUNDAY REDUCES PRECIP THREAT. -SN/-SHSN THREAT INCREASES AGAIN SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AS NORTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH WRN
GTLAKES. ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK TO FEED LIGHT SNOW. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF
SHOWING REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE. THIS UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT TIMING MAY BE SLOWED DUE TO
EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OVER NORTHEAST CONUS.

THE COLDER CONDITIONS REMAIN ANCHORED OVER WI ON TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHT MODIFICATION EXPECTED ON WED AHEAD OF NEXT WEAKER SHORT WAVE
AND SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WED NGT OR THU.

LATEST GFS 5H ANOMOLY 5DAY MEANS SHOW INCREASINGLY COLD PATTERN
SETTING UP OVER WRN GTLAKES THROUGH FIRST 1.5 WEEKS OF DEC. LARGE
POSITIVE ANOMOLIES EXPECTED TO FORM IN BOTH WRN ATLANTIC AND NRN
PACIFIC WITH NEGATIVE ANOMOLY AND BROADSCALE TROFFING SETTING UP
OVER CENTRAL CONUS.

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS THURSDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EVENTUALLY POSSIBLY LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS
TO MVFR FOR A TIME. ONSET OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
THE DELLS TO FOND DU LAC...THEN LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM
LONE ROCK TO MILWAUKEE AND SOUTH. TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY UP TO ONE HALF INCH.

&&
CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KCHS 240253
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
953 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS FOR THE
LATE EVENING UPDATE. A PRONOUNCED WIND SURGE IS MOVING STEADILY
SOUTH AND WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDNIGHT. BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING QUICKLY
IN ITS WAKE. LOWS FROM THE LOWER 40S WELL INLAND TO UPPER 40S AT
THE BEACHES SEEM QUITE REASONABLE.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS AT BOTH PINEVILLE AND PINOPOLIS INDICATE WINDS
ARE SOLIDLY WITHIN LAKE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD PEAK WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT WILL TAKE SOMETIME FOR
SPEEDS TO DIMINISH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR LAKE
MOULTRIE UNTIL 6 AM.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY
AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO FRIDAY.
THEN...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE HIGH...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A BLOCKING
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS THEN SHOW A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY
IN THE WEEK...BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH
RESPECT TO THE LOCATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...WITH THE 23/00Z GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 23/00Z ECMWF AND
CANADIAN. THIS LEADS TO A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...BUT WILL
FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS IN LINE WITH HPC THINKING. AS A
RESULT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. A GOOD MOISTURE FEED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING
THE FRONT ITSELF. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL FALL
BELOW NORMAL IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV. THE MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE WHETHER GUSTY CONDITIONS
PERSIST AT KCHS...OR WHETHER SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 10
KNOTS RESULTING IN LLWS. UPSTREAM OBS CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20
KNOTS...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION ACROSS KCHS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS INITIALLY THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH AND WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING VEERING 35 KT WINDS
ALOFT...MARGINAL LLWS WOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS KSAV PRIOR
TO 03Z...BUT EXPECT OVERALL WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE TO REMAIN 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND
INITIALIZED KSAV WITH LLWS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN/MON IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR ALL MARINE LEGS. BUOY
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE INITIAL WIND SURGE
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH. A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING LEDGE TO COVER GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
FOR LESS THAN 2 HOURS. INCOMING RUC DATA SUGGEST MARGINAL GALES
MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE WIND SURGE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AT 35 KNOTS. MODIS WATER
TEMPERATURE DATA INDICATE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEYOND 40 NM...SO GALES COULD CERTAINLY
OCCUR IN THE WARMER WATERS WERE MORE VIGOROUS MIXING WILL OCCUR.
HOWEVER...PER COORDINATION WITH WFO JAX...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD WINDS
AT 25-30 KT FOR NOW SINCE THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AND HANDLE
WITH A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A GALE WARNING MAY STILL BE
NEEDED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT ATTM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS BY THE END OF THE DAY
THURSDAY...BUT A FAVORABLE FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
GIVEN THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE
MORNING HIGH TIDES THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. WITH THE
ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTED VALUES RIGHT AT 7.0 FT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNINGS...ONLY A NEUTRAL OR HIGHER
ANOMALY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THIS APPEARS
QUITE LIKELY GIVEN THE VEERING WIND PROFILE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ330-352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMPX 202207
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
407 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER TODAY WITH 1031MB HIGH SITTING OVER MN. OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE COMING IN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS A DEEP TROUGH WORKS
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. OTHER THAN THAT...BIG CHALLENGE
FOR THE FORECAST THIS WEEK WAS HOW FRESH SNOW PACK WILL IMPACT
TEMPERATURES DURING THE BIG WARM UP THAT IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD
FOR THANKSGIVING.

SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US SNOW YESTERDAY ALREADY MOVING OFF INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW IS QUICKLY TAKING
CONTROL OF THE CONUS WITH A NICE BOWLING BALL LOW COMING INTO THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. STRICTLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS
PERIOD...WITH ONLY SYSTEM OF NOTE EXPECTED TO PASS OFF TO THE SE
OF THE MPX CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY /THIS IS THE CURRENT
CALIFORNIA LOW/. 20.12 RUNS OF THE MODELS DID PULL THIS LOW NW
QUITE A BIT TODAY...BUT ONLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO NOW BRING THE THREAT
OF MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES TO SE MN INTO WI TUESDAY. BIG PLAYER FOR THE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK WILL BE SNOW COVER IN PLACE FROM
YESTERDAYS STORM. HIGH RES /1 KM/ MODIS SATELLITE PASS TODAY
SHOWED THE SNOW PACK QUITE WELL...EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL SODAK
AND MOST OF THE CWA. SNOW PACK DEEPEST FROM WEST CENTRAL MN
THROUGH CENTRAL MN AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST IMPACT FROM THE
SNOW ON TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE COMING DAYS. WENT LOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS DEEPER SNOW PACK REGION FOR BOTH HIGHS
AND LOWS THROUGH THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY...BUT VERY WARM CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS LIKELY STAYING
ABOVE 30...SHOULD ALL BUT DO IN THIS SNOW PACK BY FRIDAY. MODEL OF
CHOICE FOR TEMPERATURES WAS THE NAM TODAY...AS IT APPEARED TO
INITIALIZE THE SNOW COVER THE BEST WHEN COMPARING FORECAST HIGHS
AND LOWS OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE ONLY AREA WHERE THE NAM WAS NOT
FOLLOWED AS CLOSELY IS SE OF THE DEEPER SNOW COVER...WHERE THE NAM
WAS LOOKING A LITTLE TOO WARM ON TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DURING THE COURSE OF THE
WEEK...WARM H5 RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE IN TO WRN NOAM.
THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING ON TO THE HIGH
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO HEAD OUT
ACROSS THE PLAINS. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ARE RATHER
LARGE TODAY IN TERMS OF HANDLING THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS SENDS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TAKING PLACE ON
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND STRONGER...SENDING A SFC
LOW INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP
COMING SATURDAY AND THE COOL DOWN HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY AND LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS...STUCK WITH THE
CENTRAL REGION MODEL BLEND FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST. NO MATTER
WHAT HAPPENS...LOOKS WARM ENOUGH THAT WHATEVER WERE TO FALL WILL
COME DOWN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS /MVFR/ CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. AS THE SFC RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAKUP AND
DISSIPATE OVER MN...AND NOT UNTIL THIS EVENING OR LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN. MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TDA...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS BY NOON MONDAY.

KMSP...PESKY LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAKUP THIS AFTERNOON.
REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING. MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

MPG/JVM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 171048
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
448 AM CST THU NOV 17 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GFS/NAM PROG THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO MOVE EAST
FOLLOWED BY QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS FRIDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VEERING WIND DRG THE PERIOD. CONCUR WITH THE GFS
THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP TNGT/FRIDAY. THUS...BREEZY NORTH
WIND EARLY TODAY OVER THE ERN CWA WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES SOUTH TEXAS. 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY REVEALS CLOUD
COVER TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION APPROACHING THE CWA FROM
THE NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TODAY (NAM CROSS-SECTIONAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT.)
WILL FCST MAX TEMPS TODAY SIMILAR TO NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT.
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT/FRIDAY. HIGHER MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED FRIDAY OWING TO MODIFICATION OF AIRMASS DESPITE MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS AT 300K STILL TO HIGH FOR PCPN FRIDAY.

.MARINE...CAA AND WARM SST (ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE BASED ON SPORT
ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE OUTPUT)...925MB WIND/0-1KM NAM LAPSE
RATE OUTPUT...AND MSLP GRADIENT SUGGEST THAT SCA CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AREAWIDE AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z-20Z FOLLOWED BY DECREASING
WIND FROM WEST TO EAST. WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS (SUSTAINED WIND 25-30KT THUS NO GALE WARNING.)

.FIRE WEATHER...WIND EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW RED FLAG CRITERION
BEFORE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO CRITICAL LEVELS. YET...
DRG THE 18-21Z PERIOD TODAY...THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD WARRANT AN RFD FOR THE NERN SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED DUE TO H5 HIGH SITUATED ACROSS
THE GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL PROVIDE CONTINUOUS ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING
THE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES OVER THE WATERS AND EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MORNING STREAMER SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. PAST MODEL RUNS
KEPT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRUSHING THE CWA. HOWEVER...
NEW RUNS ARE SLOWLY BRINGING A MORE AGGRESSIVE TROUGH THROUGH
FURTHER SOUTH. TIMING OF THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA RANGES BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER TIMING
COULD STILL CHANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
ALL ZONES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BETTER CONVERGENCE COMES IN.
UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH NEAR 90 TEMPS OUT WEST.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 68 54 75 67 83 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 66 45 74 62 82 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 69 53 79 67 88 / 0 10 10 10 10
ALICE 68 51 76 65 86 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 67 55 71 68 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 65 49 76 63 85 / 0 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 68 54 76 66 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 68 57 72 70 81 / 10 10 10 10 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O'CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

WC/87...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 161033
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
433 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE NAM/GFS
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY/TNGT FOLLOWED BY QUASI-ZONAL
PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THURSDAY. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA/MSA
TNGT. OWING TO LIMITED MSTR (LESS THAN 0.80 INCH PW VALUES PER THE
GFS) DO NOT EXPECT PCPN ALONG THE FRONT. NAM CROSS-SECTIONS
SUGGEST THAT A CLOUD DECK WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL
INVERSION AND WILL ADVECT OVER THE CWA/MSA. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WILL FCST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER
FROPA TNGT. UTILIZED THE NAM DETERMINISTIC...WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS...FOR MIN/MAX TEMPS THU. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE COLD
AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH (POLAR JET/VERY LOW 1000-500MB
THICKNESS VALUES NORTH OF TEXAS)...WILL FCST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THE DETERMINISTIC NAM WHEN CONSIDERING TEMP READINGS JUST NORTH OF
THE FRONT NOW (MODIFICATIONS NOTWITHSTANDING)...AND WL FCST COOLER
MAX TEMPS THURSDAY THAN NAM DETERMINISITIC AS CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPS EVEN LOWER.

.MARINE...EXPECT STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER FROPA TONIGHT/THURSDAY
WHEN CONSIDERING WARM SST VALUES (NEAR 70F NEARSHORE/75-80F
OFFSHORE BASED ON SPORT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE) AND
DETERMINISTIC NAM OUTPUT. WILL DEFER TO SUBSEQUENT FCSTRS TO ISSUE
SCA FOR THE SECOND PERIOD TO BETTER DETERMINE TIMING OF ONSET.

.FIRE WEATHER...THE NAM/LOCAL ARW SUGGESTS 15KT SFC WIND OVER THE
CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE NERN SECTION...THIS AFTN...WHICH COMBINED
WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER CONDITION. WILL ISSUE AN RFD FOR ALL BUT THE NERN CWA
FOR THIS AFTN.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
RESUME IN THE EXTENDED AS HIGHER PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY AS PWATS WILL STILL AVERAGE LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH MORNING BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...AND EXTENDED FURTHER INLAND...DUE
TO AN INCREASE IN PWATS AND CAPE VALUES AS WELL AS DECENT LAPSE
RATES EXISTING OVER THESE AREAS. GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTING PRECIP ACROSS
THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST...DUE TO A
FEW SHORTWAVES RIDING THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE H5 HIGH. AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST H85 FLOW CREATING A STRONG CAP ACROSS THE
AREA...THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE
WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREAS MAY SUGGEST
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO OCCUR...HOWEVER AM THINKING THAT EVAPORATION
WOULD OCCUR GIVEN THE WARM MIDLEVELS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA IS TO ARRIVE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL. IT SEEMS LIKE A
SIMILAR SETUP FROM THIS PREVIOUS SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH...WITH A
TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES TRYING TO ABSORB A LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT IT IS TRACKING
A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SILENT POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MORNING SHOWERS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 88 55 67 58 79 / 0 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 85 52 68 50 76 / 0 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 91 51 71 59 81 / 0 10 10 10 10
ALICE 90 54 68 55 80 / 0 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 81 57 67 60 76 / 0 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 88 50 67 53 76 / 0 10 0 10 10
KINGSVILLE 90 54 68 55 80 / 0 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 81 58 66 63 78 / 0 10 10 10 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

WC/87...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 131155
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
555 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING (MVFR VISIBILITIES EXCEPT
FOR IFR/LIFR OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST)...ALONG WITH NON-
CONVECTIVE LLWS EAST OF STATE ROAD 16...WILL TRANSITION TO VFR
CEILINGS/NO LLWS BY MID MORNING/EARLY AFTN. ISOLD SHOWERS NEAR THE
COAST (GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF US 77) ANTICIPATED YET WITH MINIMAL
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. MODERATE/BREEZY WIND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY THIS AFTN...THEN
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 00Z MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2011/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE GFS PROGS A QUASI- ZONAL
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DRG THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACRS NRN MEXICO/SWRN CONUS.
THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CWA/MSA AND
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. BASED ON GFS
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT THE 300K ISENTROPIC LEVEL...
ANTICIPATE ISOLD LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EXTREME ERN
CWA/MSA TODAY/TONIGHT...AND AREAWIDE MONDAY. THE GFS DETERMINISTIC
SOLN DEPICTS PCPN OVER MAINLY THE NRN CWA MONDAY. WL FCST PCPN
AREAWIDE MONDAY YET WITH 20 POP OVER THE NRN CWA AND LESS THAN 20
POP OVER THE SRN SECTIONS (SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FOREGOING DISTURBANCE NOT EXPECTED INFLUENCE THE CWA/MSA UNTIL
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.)

MARINE...BASED ON 25KT+ 925MB ONSHORE FLOW AND SST VALUES (MODIS
SST) ASSESSMENT...ANTICIPATE 15-20KT WIND OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE
WATERS AND 20KT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT 4-6FT SEAS OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 7-8FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL MAINTAIN
THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY WITH SCEC ELSEWHERE. EXTENDED
THE SCA TO 06Z MONDAY BASED ON CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS WILL REMAIN AT
LEAST AT 7FT EVEN IF WIND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS DROPS TO 15-20KT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH
THE FORECAST MODELS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THE MAIN FRONT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN
CONTINUE TO HAVE A LONGWAVE TROUGH PICK UP A LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA...AND DRAG IT SLOWLY TO THE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BY MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION NOW APPEAR TO EXIST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WEATHER INGREDIENTS ARE LINING UP
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. POSITIVE VORTICITY EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS MEXICO TRACKS EAST. IN
ADDITION...THE AREA CONTINUES TO REMAIN WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE
RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. CAPE VALUES REMAIN DECENT...WITH HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE WATERS AND THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. THE STRONG CAP
THAT HAS BEEN HINDERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE PAST
(ESPECIALLY OUT WEST) IS EXPECTED TO ERODE. LI VALUES REACHING NEAR
-5C. THIS IS BECOMING A GREAT SET UP FOR SOME STORMS TO POSSIBLY
BECOME EVEN STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
ALL OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOOKED AT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF WETTING RAINS IS INCREASING. THIS IS
ALL EXPECTED TO LEAVE THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXPECTED TO ENTER IN BY WEDNESDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE
80S...WITH A SLIGHT DROP INTO THE MID 70S DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 50S MIDWEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 68 82 70 85 / 20 20 10 40 30
VICTORIA 82 66 81 66 81 / 20 20 20 50 50
LAREDO 86 64 86 69 87 / 10 10 10 30 20
ALICE 83 65 84 69 85 / 10 10 10 40 30
ROCKPORT 78 70 78 72 84 / 20 20 20 40 40
COTULLA 83 63 82 65 85 / 10 10 20 40 30
KINGSVILLE 82 67 84 71 86 / 10 10 10 30 30
NAVY CORPUS 78 70 78 71 85 / 20 20 10 40 30

WC/87...SHORT TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 131048
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
448 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE GFS PROGS A QUASI- ZONAL
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DRG THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACRS NRN MEXICO/SWRN CONUS.
THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CWA/MSA AND
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. BASED ON GFS
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT THE 300K ISENTROPIC LEVEL...
ANTICIPATE ISOLD LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EXTREME ERN
CWA/MSA TODAY/TONIGHT...AND AREAWIDE MONDAY. THE GFS DETERMINISTIC
SOLN DEPICTS PCPN OVER MAINLY THE NRN CWA MONDAY. WL FCST PCPN
AREAWIDE MONDAY YET WITH 20 POP OVER THE NRN CWA AND LESS THAN 20
POP OVER THE SRN SECTIONS (SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FOREGOING DISTURBANCE NOT EXPECTED INFLUENCE THE CWA/MSA UNTIL
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.)

.MARINE...BASED ON 25KT+ 925MB ONSHORE FLOW AND SST VALUES (MODIS
SST) ASSESSMENT...ANTICIPATE 15-20KT WIND OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE
WATERS AND 20KT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT 4-6FT SEAS OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 7-8FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL MAINTAIN
THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY WITH SCEC ELSEWHERE. EXTENDED
THE SCA TO 06Z MONDAY BASED ON CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS WILL REMAIN AT
LEAST AT 7FT EVEN IF WIND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS DROPS TO 15-20KT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH
THE FORECAST MODELS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THE MAIN FRONT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN
CONTINUE TO HAVE A LONGWAVE TROUGH PICK UP A LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA...AND DRAG IT SLOWLY TO THE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BY MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION NOW APPEAR TO EXIST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WEATHER INGREDIENTS ARE LINING UP
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. POSITIVE VORTICITY EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS MEXICO TRACKS EAST. IN
ADDITION...THE AREA CONTINUES TO REMAIN WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE
RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. CAPE VALUES REMAIN DECENT...WITH HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE WATERS AND THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. THE STRONG CAP
THAT HAS BEEN HINDERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE PAST
(ESPECIALLY OUT WEST) IS EXPECTED TO ERODE. LI VALUES REACHING NEAR
-5C. THIS IS BECOMING A GREAT SET UP FOR SOME STORMS TO POSSIBLY
BECOME EVEN STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
ALL OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOOKED AT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF WETTING RAINS IS INCREASING. THIS IS
ALL EXPECTED TO LEAVE THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXPECTED TO ENTER IN BY WEDNESDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE
80S...WITH A SLIGHT DROP INTO THE MID 70S DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 50S MIDWEEK.

WC/87...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KCRP 121018
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
418 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS THAT THE
UPPER PATTERN WILL BE CONDUSIVE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...AND
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...DURING THE PERIOD. FURTHER...THE GFS
PROGS ISENTROPIC LIFT TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA/MSA. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY OWING TO COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS (IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST) AND
INCEREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER (OWING TO ISENTROPIC LIFT.) GFS
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT 295/300K SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST
LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL COMMENCE OVER THE WATERS TNGT AND OVER
THE ERN CWA/MSA BY SUNDAY AFTN. FCSTG AFTN TEMPS TODAY/SUNDAY
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE GFS DETERMINISTIC.

.MARINE...NAM PROGS NEAR DRY ADIABATIC 0-1KM LAPSE RATES OVER THE
WATERS TODAY WHICH COMBINED WITH 25KT 925MB WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST 15-20KT WIND OVER WATERS TODAY. NAM/GFS PROG 20KT SFC WIND
OVER THE WATERS. YET WHEN CONSIDERING MODIS SST...ANTICIAPTE 15-20KT
OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS AND AROUND 20KT OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. THUS ISSUED A SCA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR TODAY.
WAVEWATCH OUTPUT INDICATES THAT SEA HEIGHTS WILL APPROACH 6-7 FT
TNGT/EARLY SUNDAY. YET...WILL ONLY EXTEND THE SCA TO 00Z SUNDAY
OWING IN PART TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER NAM 0-1KM LAPSE RATES OVER THE
WATERS BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS TODAY BASED IN PART ON 8 SECOND PERIOD SWELL PROGD BY THE
WAVEWATCH TO APPROACH THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...FORECAST MODELS ARE
COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT TROUGH TO
MOVE THROUGH TEXAS. BEFOREHAND...ONGOING SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGS GULF
MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING UP TO NEAR 800MB...
WITH PWATS VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. WARM MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...HOWEVER DECENT LAPSE
RATES BELOW THE CAP WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING
STREAMER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF EDGING NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND COUNTIES. WEAKENING IN THE CAP BEGINS LATE
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING
EAST. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR THE MENTION OF THUNDER LATE IN THE MORNING.
THE BEST DYNAMICS STILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER...MAY
CLIP THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CAPE VALUES INCREASE
TO 1500-1700 J/KG WHILE CIN VALUES DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. MODELS WANT TO PLACE THE CWA WITHIN
THE RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WOULD AIDE IN LIFT. HOWEVER...
AREAS ACROSS THE WEST WILL REMAIN UNDER A DECENT CAP DUE TO
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 85H FLOW. THEREFORE...KEPT BEST POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY AS
DECREASING TEMPERATURES WITH THIS NEXT FRONT. EXPECTING TO REMAIN
WITHIN THE 80S THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL BE
FILTERING IN ALLOWING FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME COOLER.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK UNTIL THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH IS STILL FAR OUT IN
TIME.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 67 78 69 84 / 10 10 20 10 20
VICTORIA 75 65 79 68 84 / 10 10 20 10 30
LAREDO 80 62 81 69 86 / 0 10 10 10 10
ALICE 79 64 80 67 86 / 10 10 20 10 20
ROCKPORT 76 70 75 72 83 / 10 10 20 10 20
COTULLA 76 61 80 67 84 / 0 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 79 66 79 68 86 / 10 10 20 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 77 69 75 72 83 / 10 10 20 10 20

WC/87...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 290220
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
920 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

.UPDATE...
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE EAST BY AROUND 11 PM AS MAIN MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF MOVE EAST. SKIES
CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS. TEMPS DROPPING
QUICKLY WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. THERE COULD BE
SOME LOCALIZED FOG IN LOW SPOTS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FLOW
TO KEEP IT FROM GETTING ANY MORE PREVELANT. OTHERWISE NO REAL
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THIS BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ALREADY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
STILL VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS BROUGHT EVEN DRIER AIR TO
THE SFC AS DEWPTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN PARTS OF
THE EAST. THE LOW LEVELS /BELOW 5K FT/ REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WRN WI MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER ENOUGH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
WITH THIS FEATURE TO WARRANT KEEPING LOW POPS IN FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA AND IN THE EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK DESPITE COLD MID-LEVELS...
DECREASING THREAT OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL.

DRY LOW LEVELS EXPCD TO PREVENT ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN WI
LATER TONIGHT IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER WL NEED TO
WATCH STRATUS FIELD TO THE NORTH...WHICH MAY CLIP PARTS OF THE NORTH
LATE TONIGHT.

WL CONFINE MENTION OF FROST TONIGHT TO EXTREME LAKESHORE AREAS FROM
PORT WASHINGTON SOUTH TO MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA. DUE TO
SMALL AREA OF CONCERN...WL HOLD OFF ON FROST ADVY.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING BUT INCREASING RIDGING SHOULD RESULT
IN M/CLR CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE AFTN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

500MB TROUGH WITH A POTENT VORTICITY MAX AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW
WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...REACHING WI
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MOST MODELS HANDLING THE LOW VERY
SIMILARLY...BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH-END LIKELY. WITH THE STRONG VORT
MAX AND GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ON
SUN...THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN MEASURING ACROSS ALL OF
THE AREA...WITH PROBABLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR BETTER IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE START TIME...HOW EARLY SUN MORNING...AND
HOW QUICKLY IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHEAST
WI SUN MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE DECENT 850-700MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD HELP THE AREA FILL IN WITH
PRECIP FAIRLY EARLY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY
EVENING OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH
MOVING THE UPPER LOW OUT OF THE AREA THAN THE 12Z GFS.

THE CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIP OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN...SO
WENT LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING
OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT...WITH COLDER TEMPS IN THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA DUE TO CLEARING SKIES.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENSUE OVER SOUTHERN WI
THROUGH TUE. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUE. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S BY TUE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE
COUNTRY WED INTO THU...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER FORCING AND
MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTHERN WI. HIGH-END CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY BUMP THEM UP TO
LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT ONE OR TWO FORECAST ISSUANCES IF THIS TREND
IN MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES.

TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE MID 40S BY THU AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE ECMWF BREAKS OFF THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF 500MB TROUGH INTO A
CLOSED LOW THAT SCOOTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT AND
FRI...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH CONNECTED AND CAUSES A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST. BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW BRING HIGH
PRESSURE INTO SOUTHERN WI. WILL LIKELY DROP ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH
THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE IF THESE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

JUST-BELOW-SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING
IN EASTERN CWA AS SFC TROUGH AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT PUSHES TO THE
EAST. LOW LEVELS BLO 5K FT REMAIN DRY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THRU SO
STILL EXPCG VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING. MID CLOUDS CLEAR
FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVE...AND PARCHED LOW LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT
STRATUS FROM REFORMING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. WL HOLD OFF
ON ANY FOG MENTION DUE TO LATE NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND DRY
AIR.

MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY REVEALS LAKE SFC TEMPS AROUND 11C. PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK THROUGH SATURDAY AS WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE.
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WILL TURN THE
WINDS MORE ONSHORE WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY
LEVELS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 282028
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

WL CONFINE MENTION OF FROST TONIGHT TO EXTREME LAKESHORE AREAS FROM
PORT WASHINGTON SOUTH TO MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA. DUE TO
SMALL AREA OF CONCERN...WL HOLD OFF ON FROST ADVY.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING BUT INCREASING RIDGING SHOULD RESULT
IN M/CLR CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE AFTN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE MID 40S BY THU AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

JUST-BELOW-SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING
IN EASTERN CWA AS SFC TROUGH AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT PUSHES TO THE
EAST. LOW LEVELS BLO 5K FT REMAIN DRY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THRU SO
STILL EXPCG VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING. MID CLOUDS CLEAR
FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVE...AND PARCHED LOW LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT
STRATUS FROM REFORMING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. WL HOLD OFF
ON ANY FOG MENTION DUE TO LATE NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND DRY

.MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY REVEALS LAKE SFC TEMPS AROUND 11C. PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK THROUGH SATURDAY AS WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE.
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WILL TURN THE
WINDS MORE ONSHORE WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY
LEVELS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KBUF 281104
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
704 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST
OVERNIGHT AND CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
US WITH A WINDOW OF FAIR BUT CHILLY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
VERY EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL THEN PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR A RARE BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LATE OCTOBER SNOW TO THE EAST
COAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR
AREA.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPERIMENTAL MODIS IMAGERY AT 08Z SHOWS DENDRITIC FOG OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING...A GOOD INDICATION OF VALLEY FOG. KJHW
IS WITHIN THE FOG AND HAS BEEN DOWN BELOW 1/4 MI SINCE 10Z. SO
HAVE ADDED MORNING FOG TO THE FORECAST IN TYPICAL INLAND VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. A SPS IS ALSO OUT NOTING BLACK ICE
AS ONLY A FEW AREAS HAVE HAD MUCH DEICING WINTER ROAD TREATMENT.

WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...IT
SHOULD FEEL MARKEDLY BETTER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN MANY SAW THEIR FIRST
FLAKES OF THE SEASON.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW YORK STATE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...AND
THIS WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND VERY LIGHT
WINDS. DESPITE H85 TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF -4C...SUN FILLED SKIES
WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

FAIR WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY CIRCULATE SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING.

THE ONE INTERESTING FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT PCPN OFF LK ERIE. WHILE IT CERTAINLY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...A HIGHLY SHEARED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE. THE GENERAL FLOW WILL VARY FROM
200-240 DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT WITH SFC-10K FT WINDS LIKELY
TOO SHEARED TO ALLOW FOR ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WILL THUS COVER
THIS POTENTIAL WITH SLGT-LOW CHC POPS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FOUND
OVER THE LAKE OR ALONG ITS NORTHERN CANADIAN SHORES.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/CAROLINAS AND
WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE OFF OF THE
CAROLINA COAST. THIS DEVELOPING NOREASTER WILL RAPIDLY TRACK UP THE
EAST COAST CREATING NUMEROUS FORECAST PROBLEMS FARTHER TO THE EAST.
WESTERN NEW YORK HOWEVER WILL FIND ITSELF FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST
THAT IT SHOULD AVOID MOST OF THE ACTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS TRY TO
WRAP SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY...HOWEVER AM THINKING THAT
THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS THE LOW TRACK IS JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MISS US. THAT SAID...IT WILL STILL
LIKELY BE A RATHER DISMAL DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HANGING
AROUND AND TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL COURTESY OF THE COLD
UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD. EXPECT HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 40S NEAR THE LAKES WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND LAGGING
IN THE 30S. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF OF
LAKE ERIE...A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
INDICATED IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND GIVEN THAT FACT IT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY THAT ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE VERY
LIMITED...MOSTLY TO THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES IF AT ALL.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...DRYING THINGS OUT FURTHER AND RESULTING IN A SUNNIER SECOND
HALF TO THE WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY KEEP A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN ACROSS THE SKIES OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING TO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKES
WITH UPPER 20S INLAND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MODERATE DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND GREATER INSOLATION
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE REGION.

LOOK FOR CLOUD COVER TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER/WEAK WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS
COMPARED TO SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DIPS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY. AS WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED AND THE BULK OF THE ENERGY ALOFT WILL
ONCE AGAIN MISS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW DIVES UNDERNEATH OUR
REGION LEAVING US UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PASS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY SEE JUST GENERAL CLOUDINESS. GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH TO NEAR 50 IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR THE LAKE
WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE 40S.

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WESTERN NEW YORK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR GRADUAL MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS CREEP CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM TO MARCH
OUT OF THE MIDWEST BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND AT THIS POINT IT MAY BE JUST AS
LIKELY THAT HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ASIDE FROM TYPICAL LIFR CONDITIONS WITH INLAND VALLEY FOG IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS REGION-
WIDE. THIS WILL INCLUDE CLR-SCT CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SFC WINDS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...DESPITE EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AND WILL CONSIST OF VFR CIGS OF 5-10K FT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN NEW
YORK TODAY...THEN WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES OVER BOTH LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO.

LIGHT TO GENTLE WAVES WITHIN AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN BE FOUND
OVER THE LOWER LAKES ON SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ001>006-010-
011-013-014-019-085.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...RSH/ZAFF
MARINE...RSH

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 230941
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
541 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. A FAST
MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK NORTH OF PA ON MONDAY. A
DEEPENING TROUGH COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP A MOISTURE LADEN EAST
COAST STORM TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
08Z OBS SUGGEST MOST OF CENTRAL PA WILL SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST
THIS AM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF URBAN LOCATIONS AND AREAS EAST OF
THE SUSQ RIVER. MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM...ESP OVR THE NW MTNS.
HRRR SFC RH SUGGESTS THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BTWN 13Z-14Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AFTER THE CHILLY START...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND TO NR NORMAL READINGS BY THIS AFTN. ENSEMBLE MEAN 850
TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M50S OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE ALLEGHENIES...TO L60S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW...ENTERING W ONTARIO
THIS MORNING...WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS INTO PA TONIGHT WITH
THE CHC OF A FEW -SHRA TOWARD DAWN. AS SFC LOW PASSES NORTH OF PA
MONDAY...A ROUND OF SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN
MOST SPOTS. ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF RANGES FROM ARND 0.2 INCHES NORTH TO
A FEW HUNDREDTHS SOUTH. MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MDL DATA
SUGGESTS A TSRA IS EVEN POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS WITH FROPA MON
AFTN. ALTHOUGH MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY...SURGE OF
WAA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
WITH HIGHS FROM THE M50S NW MTNS...TO M60S OVR THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MDL DATA INDICATES RIDGING AT SFC AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO PA
MON NIGHT/TUESDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF FAIR AND MILD WX.

BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM A DEEP TROUGH OVR
THE EASTERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK TOWARD A FLATTER...MORE
PROGRESSIVE WAVE SCENARIO. DESPITE TIMING DIFFS...THERE APPEARS
TO BE A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG MDL DATA THAT ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD THRU PA BY LATE WED. AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...PRODUCING
A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP JUST NORTH OF SFC BOUNDARY. DEPENDING
ON EXACT TRACK OF WAVE...MDL THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR A BIT OF WET SNOW OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL PA THURS NIGHT.

COLD/DRY NW FLOW PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY BY FRI/SAT...AS TROUGH
SHIFTS OFF THE E COAST. SOME INDICATION THAT A CLIPPER LOW COULD
PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS OF EITHER RAIN OR SNOW ON SATURDAY.

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HEADLINING A QUIET PERIOD FOR WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
PA. LIGHT WINDS AND COLD TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL BRING PATCHY
MIST/FOG THAT WILL RESTRICT VSBYS MAINLY IN VALLEYS...BRINGING SCT
IFR CONDITIONS TO LOWER SUSQ AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. AFTER 13Z ALL
FOG/MIST SHOULD HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER ALL AREAS
FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY. FOG COVERAGE MON MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN
THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON...CHC -SHRA...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSS.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED-THU...CHC -SHRA. AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056-
058-063>065.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 180829
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

EARLY MORNING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CU/SC
TODAY. WEAK SURFACE FRONT WL PUSH THROUGH SRN WI EARLY THIS
MORNING...USHERING IN WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
INCREASING MOISTURE RESULTING IN THE THICKENING CLOUDS. CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SPREADING IN FROM
EAST.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK WAVE OVER NORTHWEST WI EARLY THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. AN ISOLATED -SHRA MAY
SPREAD INTO NRN CWA LATER THIS MRNG FROM THIS FEATURE. A SMALL
THREAT LINGERS FOR A BRIEF -SHRA OR PATCHY -DZ THIS AFTN AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE FUNNELS IN FROM THE NORTH.

ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOING
CYCLOGENESIS OVER TN AND OH VALLEYS TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE NOW EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER GUIDANCE HAD
SUGGESTED...RESULTING IN MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FROM THIS
SYSTEM REACHING SOUTHERN WI BEGINNING TONIGHT. INITIAL SURGE OF
ENHANCED LIFT ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS INTO SOUTHEAST WI
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE...RESULTING IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ENHANCED LIFT SPREADING OVER THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
LIFT AFFECTING SEVERAL INLAND TIERS. LAKE INDUCED CAPE EXCEEDS 300
J AS DELTA-T RISES TO 16C. COMBINATION OF FORCING SHOULD
RESULT IN SHRA OVER THE LAKE ZONES...WITH SCT -SHRA FARTHER INLAND.
HELD OFF ON MENTIONING THUNDER AT THIS POINT DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL ROTATE A BIT WEST OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST
OH BY WED EVENING...REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE OVERALL SHIFTED WESTWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW.
CURRENT MODELS NOW INDICATE SOME OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WILL PUSH INTO IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE PARTICULARLY WET FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...INCLUDING AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR SO IN THE EAST. WITH THIS SHIFT IN MODELS...BUMPED POPS
UP QUITE A BIT. WAS NOT READY TO GO ALL IN WITH THIS QUITE YET...AS
MODELS MAY NOT HAVE SETTLED ON A SOLUTION. IF MODELS KEEP THIS TREND
THOUGH...POPS WILL LIKELY BE GOING UP EVEN MORE.

THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THE APPROACHING STORM IS THE WIND. MODELS
SHOWING A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATER DUE TO RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE
TEMPS...STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE. COULD SEE NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THERE...WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER BUT STILL BREEZY
WINDS FARTHER INLAND. IF NAM SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY...WIND WOULD
BE FAIRLY WINDY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS WELL. OTHER MODELS
BACK OFF THE WINDS A BIT FROM WEDNESDAY...THOUGH STILL REMAIN
BREEZY THURSDAY.

WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH. IF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN ROLL IN A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...OR LINGER A BIT LATER ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT
BE COOL ENOUGH. SHOULD SEE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE MORE PROBABLE.

.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS REMAINING A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. AFTER THAT...MODELS GENERALLY SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A
COUPLE WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NOT MUCH
AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...AND NONE
LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE...SO OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HIGH THIN CLOUDS EARLY SHOULD SUCCUMB TO
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SC/CU AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SAGS
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION. CU RULES FAVOR BKN CIGS DVLPNG BUT LINGERING DRY
AIR BELOW 3K FEET AND MIXING MAY CAUSE MAINLY VFR CIGS THIS AFTN.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL RESULT IN CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR INLAND AND IFR NEAR THE LAKE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
SHRA DEVELOPING IN THE EAST.

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING OVER TN AND OH
VALLEYS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FARTHER WEST MOVEMENT COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS PROGS...RESULTS IN VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THU MRNG
BEFORE LOOSENING. THE INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL RESULT
IN STRONG WINDS REACHING THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WED NGT
INTO THU. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY REVEALS LAKE SFC TEMPERATURE REMAINS
AROUND 14C. WITH COLD AIR FEEDING INTO THIS STORM SYSTEM...UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL ALLOW STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO REACH LAKE
SURFACE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE RAMP UP SITUATION WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVY GOING INTO AFFECT TONIGHT...RAMPING UP TO GALE WATCH BY WED
AFTN. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL POTENTIAL FOR 50KT WIND
GUSTS REACHING LAKE SURFACE WED NGT INTO EARLY THU. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES TODAY...MAY POSSIBLY UPGRADE TO STORM WATCH OR WARNING.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT LAKESHORE AREA FOR A TIME WED EVE BEFORE
BACKING TO THE NORTH LATER WED NGT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ643>646.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LMZ643>646.

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 170816
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
316 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF A KENOSHA TO WISCONSIN DELLS LINE. THE CULPRIT IS THE
PERSISTENT STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA STRETCHING ITS
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH INTO OUR AREA.

THE AIR TODAY IS VERY DRY OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT EASILY THIS AFTERNOON...
DROPPING TO THE MID 20S MOST PLACES. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
DUE TO THE COMBO OF STABILIZING DIURNAL TRENDS AND THE CANADIAN LOW
FINALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. A CHILLY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A LARGE 500MB TROUGH WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
UNITED STATES BY TUE MORNING...AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER INDIANA ON WED. A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS CENTRAL WI ON TUE. IN
ADDITION...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
CROSSING OVERHEAD WILL MAKE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY
SHOWERS. MODEL SNDGS SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT LAYER OF SATURATION...SO
INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR STORY IS EXPECTED FOR WED WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL. A BAND
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THEN DRIFT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WI AND NORTHEAST IL
TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE WINDS BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -2C AND MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPS AROUND
11C MID LAKE GIVES DELTA-T AROUND 13C...IDEAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THU MORNING...DIMINISHING THE
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...
WITH THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN WI LATE THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE THIS WEEK TO DECOUPLE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER 30S. PATCHY FROST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI EXPECTED...WITH
LAKESHORE AREAS STAYING SLIGHTLY WARMER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG A SFC TROUGH ACROSS WI LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING. MODELS BACKED OFF FOR POPS...AS THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF FORCING AND MOISTURE IS MEAGER...BUT THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN 700MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND 850MB TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ON SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
STRENGTH...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF THE LOW SAT NIGHT THROUGH
MON...SO SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAIN MENTIONED...HOWEVER IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO RAIN FOR THAT LONG OF A PERIOD.

AFTER TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECT A SLIGHT WARM-UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEKEND.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID MORNING...UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS WIPED OUT WITH
MIXING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE
DAY...FINALLY DIMINISHING AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&

.MARINE...

THE GALE WARNING FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT HOUSE NORTH TO SHEBOYGAN HAS
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA CONTINUES THROUGH 7 PM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN AREA ONCE THE GALE WARNING
EXPIRES.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERLY WINDS AND LARGE WAVES
WILL LIKELY BE MET AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643-644.

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 080935
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
535 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. TWO AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODIS 11-3.7 IR SATL IMAGERY CONFIRMS DENDRITIC FOG IN THE RIVER
AND STREAM VALLEYS. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE BY
13-14Z.

HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IN PA THROUGH TONIGHT. +14-15C 850MB TEMPS
WILL SUPPORT AFTN HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S OR 10-15F ABOVE EARLY
OCTOBER CLIMO. CLR/CALM CONDS EXPECTED AGAIN OVRNGT WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND PATCHY RIVER/STREAM VLY FOG DEVELOPING TWD DAWN SUNDAY.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY CLEAR
WITH LIGHT WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN...AND IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MTNS /OR 13-18F ABOVE NORMAL/.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M40S OVER THE
NORTH...TO LOWER 50S THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH.

PATCHY FOG WILL BE COMMON IN THE RVR VLYS BOTH MORNINGS AND SOME OF
IT WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY. MUCH THANKS TO THIS HIGH FOR PROVIDING US WITH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NEARLY CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPS.

AN INCREASING EAST TO SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN THIS
RETREATING HIGH...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING NORTH FROM
THE SE STATES WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY
DAMP CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

A BELT OF SERLY 850 MB WINDS WITH U-ANOMALIES BETWEEN -2 AND -3 ST
DEVIATIONS WILL BE DIRECTED RIGHT INTO THE FCST AREA WED THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EASTERLY...925 MB U-ANOMALY IS EVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
ACROSS SERN PENN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY
TO THE HIGH CHC AND LOW LIKELY CATEGORY FOR ABOUT THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA WEDNESDAY...THEN RAISED BY A LITTLE MORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS THE AREA OF BEST LLVL MOISTURE FLUX
MIGRATES NORTH ACROSS THE STATE.

EC...GFS AND GEFS CONTAIN STRONG DIFFS IN THE LOCATION OF THE
995-1000 MB SFC LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GEFS
IS THE WEAKEST AND TAKES TWO...APPROXIMATELY 1005 MB CENTERS NE OF
THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY AND ALLOWS A SLIGHTLY DRIER/
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST AND IN THE MIDDLE WITH RESPECT TO THE
INTENSITY OF THE LOW...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ABOUT 200 MI ESE OF
NYC AT 12Z THURS. THE EC IS THE SLOWEST OF ALL MODELS AND DISPLAYS A
DOUBLE-BARRELED SFC LOW JUST EAST OF KORF AND SE OF KILM WITH THE
STRONGER EAST/NE FLOW ACROSS PENN BECOMING ESTABLISHED DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS NOTABLE TIMING/LOCATION
UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY WITH FAIRLY HIGH CHC POPS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

BY FRI...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DEEPENING...500 MB
TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GLAKES REGION. EC IS THE MOST OMINOUS
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY STRONGER...FURTHER SOUTH...AND
SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM. THE EC'S MORE DEFINED RIDGING TO ITS NORTH
HINTS AT SOMEWHAT OF A REX BLOCK FORMING.

POPS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT/OROGRAPHIC RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPS WILL DROP STEADILY BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE
WEST...AND THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ELSEWHERE...WITH THE GEFS
INDICATING 850 MB TEMPS OF ONLY ABOUT PLUS 1-2C FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SAT FOR ALL OF THE CWA.

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
09Z UPDATE...
IR SATL LOOP SHOWS FOG IN THE RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS ACRS CNTRL PA.
VIS AT AOO HAS DETERIORATED TO IFR WITH 2SM BR REPORTED AT APPROX
0915Z. BASED ON VIS TRENDS FROM YESTERDAY MORNING...A 2-4HR PD OF
LIFR/VLIFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BTWN 10-14Z. IPT SHOULD BE THE
NEXT SITE TO GO DOWN...WITH SEG USUALLY A REASONABLY PROXY. UNV
MAY ALSO SEE SOME LCL VIS RESTRICTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS
LOWER HERE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AT 06Z WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO
PATCHY VLY FOG DEVELOPMENT. PERSISTENCE FAVORS IFR/LIFR
RESTRICTIONS AT KIPT AND KAOO. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 12-14Z
WITH CONDS RETURNING TO VFR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING
FOG/RESTRICTIONS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE VFR FLYING IN
CNTRL PA THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT-WED...BCMG MVFR/IFR WITH PDS OF RAIN DEVELOPING.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 061122
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
722 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IN PENNSYLVANIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
DAYBREAK READINGS ARE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW 30S IN THE NRN
TIER...WITH THE NORMALLY COLDER RURAL VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 20S. THE MESONET DATA IS ALSO SHOWING READINGS IN THE MID
30S ACRS PTNS OF THE CNTRL MTNS AND MID SUSQ VLY...WITH SOME
PATCHY FROST LKLY IN THE OUTLYING AREAS SURROUNDING STATE COLLEGE.
THE FROST ADVY FOR THE NRN MTNS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTL 9AM.

THE LATEST HI RES MODIS IR SATL SHOWS FOG PATTERN IN THE N-CNTRL
RVR/STREAM VLYS WITH 20+ DEGREE AIR-WATER SPREAD. EXPECT ANY FOG
OR LOW CEILINGS TO BURN OFF THROUGH MID MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY CLR SKIES AND LGT/VRB WNDS.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT AFTN HIGHS TO REBOUND
NICELY - INTO THE MID 60S TO 70F - BUT END UP A FEW DEGS COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR FROPA. ANOTHER
CLR/CALM NGT SHOULD SUPPORT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH GUID
FAVORING THE ERN VLYS WITH THE COLDEST OVRNGT READINGS. WILL
MENTION FROST BUT LET THE DAYSHIFT DECIDE IF ANOTHER HEADLINE IS
NEEDED.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PROVIDE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY AIR MASS
ACCOMPANYING THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RESULT IN ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...LGT WINDS AND WARM TEMPS BY DAY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL
NIGHTS. DESPITE THE DRY AIR...AM PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEANS KEEP ANOMALOUS RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD AFFORD A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
/ESP MAX TEMPS/ WITH NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TOUCH IN LOW 80S IN THE SE.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ALL INDICATE THE STRONG UPPER
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CONNECTION MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE CURRENT MDL TIMING SUGGESTS OUR THREAT OF RAIN WOULD BE
WED-THU. A DEEPER TROUGH LOOKS TO DEEPEN WITH ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
EASTERLY FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EVENTUALLY CARVING OUT A
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVR THE E-CNTRL CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IR SATL SHOWS SHALLOW RVR VLY FOG OVR N-CNTRL PA...NOW IMPACTING
IPT WITH 500' CIGS. THE IFR CIGS WILL BE BRIEF WITH CONDS
RETURNING TO VFR BY 13-14Z. WILL ADD A 500' CLOUD GROUP AT IPT FOR
THE 12Z ISSUANCE /10-12 FRI/ WITH A VERY SIMILAR RADIATIONAL FOG
SET-UP EXPECTED TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR FLYING IN
CNTRL PA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF/PATCHY A.M. VALLEY FOG
WITH LCL RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE...BUT VFR WILL BE THE RULE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...A.M. VLY FOG - OTHERWISE VFR.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-011-
012-037-041-042.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 060946
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
546 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IN
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
09Z MESONET OBS SHOW TEMPS ACRS THE NRN TIER MCKEAN/POTTER/TIOGA
CNTYS BTWN 32-36F...WITH COUDERSPORT THE LOW SPOT AT 30F. THE
USUALLY COLDER LOCATIONS WILL LKLY TOUCH THE UPPER 20S. THE
MESONET DATA IS ALSO SHOWING READINGS IN THE MID 30S ACRS THE
RURAL VALLEYS OF THE CNTRL MTNS AND MID SUSQ VLY...WITH SOME
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE OUTLYING AREAS SURROUNDING STATE
COLLEGE. THE FROST ADVY FOR THE NRN MTNS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTL
9AM. LATEST HI RES MODIS IR SATL SHOWS FOG PATTERN IN THE N-CNTRL
RVR/STREAM VLYS WITH 20+ DEGREE AIR-WATER SPREAD.

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY CLR SKIES AND LGT/VRB WNDS.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT AFTN HIGHS TO REBOUND
NICELY - INTO THE MID 60S TO 70F - BUT END UP A FEW DEGS COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR FROPA. ANOTHER
CLR/CALM NGT SHOULD SUPPORT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH GUID
FAVORING THE ERN VLYS WITH THE COLDEST OVRNGT READINGS. WILL
MENTION FROST BUT LET THE DAYSHIFT DECIDE IF ANOTHER HEADLINE IS
NEEDED.

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...09Z UPDATE...
IR SATL SHOWS SHALLOW RVR VLY FOG OVR N-CNTRL PA. THERE IS A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY THAT THIS WOULD IMPACT LCL TERMINALS OVR THE NEXT
3 HOURS. THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS 06Z
SCHEDULED TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...VFR NO SIG WX.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-011-
012-037-041-042.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KTAE 050901
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
415 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AT UPPER LEVELS...
THE LARGE SCALE LONGWAVE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY TROUGH OVER WRN STATES WITH LOW
JUST OFFSHORE FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...SHARP RIDGE EWD TO EAST
COAST WITH A WEAKNESS OVER CNTRL GULF COAST...AND A TROUGH JUST OFF
ERN SEABOARD WITH 555DM JUST SE OF NEW ENGLAND COAST.

DURING THE NEXT 24HRS...WRN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXPAND ACROSS
THE WRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE WAVE SHIFTING
NEWD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND THEN DAMPENING ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH RIDGE EWD WITH AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
MIDWEST TO UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM...STRONG CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH ERN TROUGH THAT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
ASSOCD LOW SHIFTS NEWD INTO FAR NE CANADA THEN OFFSHORE. LOCALLY...
THIS RESULTS IN RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS. WITH LOCAL AREA BETWEEN
DEPARTING TROUGH AND ADVANCING RIDGE...DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL REMAIN
INTACT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR
RAIN. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS IN WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE FORMING WEAK
TROUGHING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON LATE THURSDAY...WEAKENS IT
EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE REDEVELOPING IT IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
LATE FRIDAY INTO WEEKEND. SATELLITE SHOWS THAT DEEP MOISTURE IS
ALREADY IN SITU JUST S OF FL WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO
LIFT NWD ALONG THE E COAST OF FL...WHILE ALSO ADVECTING WWD FM THE
WRN ATLC. (SEE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DETAILS).

AT LOWER LEVELS...
MAIN FEATURE ARE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...A
1026MB HIGH LOCATED OVER UPR OH VALLEY AND A DEEP LOW OFF OF NEW
ENGLAND. LOCALLY THIS COMBINATION HAS FAVORED CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE
...LOW DEW POINTS AND CLEAR SKIES.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS...AS LOW SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...CANADIAN WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST BECOMING CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND BE REINFORCED BY OH VALLEY HIGH ALSO
SHIFTING ESE AND THEN BUILD DOWN EAST COAST ON FRI AND OFFSHORE BY
FRI NIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOCAL GRADIENT WILL INCREASINGLY TIGHTEN
THRU SHORT TERM...AND LONG FETCH OF ENE THEN E WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE NE GULF REGION ESPECIALLY IMPACTING ESPECIALLY THE MARINE
AREA AND ERN COUNTIES. THIS HIGH BUILDING SWD WILL ALSO FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EWD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT.
THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH INVERTED TROUGH WILL ADVECT ADDITIONAL LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WWD TO THE CWA THURS INTO FRO AS INVERTED
TROUGH STRENGTHENS. WDLY SCT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI
SE THIRD OF CWA OTHERWISE...ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER FL PENINSULA ON
FRIDAY BUT AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING A SURFACE
REFLECTION LEAVING A LARGE AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE TO
DOMINATE THE EASTERN STATES AND FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

TODAY...NO POPS. HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 COAST TO MID 80S INLAND.

TONIGHT...NO POPS. LOWS FROM MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 AT COAST.

THURSDAY...20 PCT POPS AT NIGHT SE THIRD OF AREA. HIGHS MID 80S.
LOWS MID-UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S COAST.

FRIDAY...ISOLD-WDLY SCT POPS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM ATLC.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS BEGINNING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
FOCUS AS MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONVERGING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION REGARDING THE SUBTROPICAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP.
THE 04.12Z AND 05.00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
PRODUCING A WEAK CLOSED SURFACE LOW (AROUND 1007 MB) NEAR THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THEN SLOWLY
DEEPENING THE LOW AS IT PUSHES NORTH TO NEAR APALACHICOLA BY LATE
TUESDAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WAS PLACED IN THE ECMWF THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS DUE TO ITS BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THAT
CONTINUES TO BE THE CASE. THEREFORE...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS
WEIGHTED ABOUT TWO-THIRDS 00Z ECMWF...AND ONE-THIRD 00Z GFS WHICH
HAS MOVED MUCH CLOSER TO THAT SOLUTION. THE FACT THAT THE 05.00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL LENDS MORE
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS.

OBVIOUSLY...THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST 24-48
HOURS PLACES THE TAE CWA MORE IN LINE FOR THE HEAVIER AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION WITH ANY SUCH LOW THAT WOULD BE TRACKING NORTH. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PLACES NEARLY 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN JUST SOUTH OF
APALACHICOLA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST. WITH INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN...POPS WERE NUDGED
UP ANOTHER 5 TO 10 PERCENT BEYOND THIS WEEKEND.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW IS STILL VERY INTERESTING. AS THE PRESSURE
AND HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE AROUND THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE
WEEKEND...THAT AREA WILL BE IN SOMEWHAT OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
AND CERTAINLY IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60-70 KT UPPER LEVEL
JET. THERE WILL BE HORIZONTAL TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS GRADIENT
FROM NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE DEVELOPING LOW. THEREFORE ITS ORIGINS
WILL NOT BE TROPICAL IN NATURE. AND YET...AS THE LOW DEVELOPS...THE
ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW INCREASING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
BY MONDAY-TUESDAY THEY INDICATE MORE OF A WARM CORE STRUCTURE...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1000-500MB THK AT THE CENTER OF THE VERTICALLY
STACKED CIRCULATION...AND THERMAL WIND VECTORS IN THE SAME LAYER
WRAP AROUND THE LOW IN A CLOCKWISE FASHION. THE LOW WILL BE PASSING
OVER WATER THAT HAS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL 29-30C...AND
850-300MB BULK SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF DROPS TO AROUND
5-10 KNOTS BY MONDAY. BOTH ARE INDICATIVE OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. CERTAINLY...THIS LOW WILL BE ONE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON...EVEN IF IT ONLY ATTAINS SUBTROPICAL STATUS. AT THE VERY
LEAST IT SHOULD BE A BREEZY AND WET START TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

.MARINE...AN EASTERLY WIND SURGE OVERNIGHT HAS CAUSED WINDS AND SEAS
TO INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST. CAUTIONARY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED OVER
APALACHEE BAY AND NEARBY OFFSHORE WATERS. AS THE EASTERLY SURGE
DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL
BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ANOTHER EASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED ON
TONIGHT. HOWEVER... AS THE SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...CAUTIONARY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
FOR THE DURATION OF THE AFTERNOON. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL FIVE TERMINALS. SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WSW-ENE AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME (05Z) AND
CLOUD HEIGHT SAMPLING TOOLS SUGGEST THESE AROUND AROUND 12000 FT
AGL. A LAYER AROUND THIS HEIGHT WAS INCLUDED PRIOR TO 13Z AT THE
THREE EASTERN TERMINALS (TLH...VLD...ABY). LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
EASTERLY TODAY...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY BRING IN SOME INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT
VLD AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TLH. ANY CU SHOULD REMAIN SCT AROUND
4000-5000 FT. ONE VSBY CONCERN IS RELATED TO A SMOLDERING WILDFIRE
THAT FLARED UP AGAIN TODAY ABOUT 40 MILES ENE OF VLD. THE SMOKE
PLUME ON SATELLITE SEEMED SMALL AND RAGGED...SO NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS
WERE INCLUDED. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME
4-7SM VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HAZE IF WINDS ORIENT CORRECTLY.

.FIRE WEATHER... WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RH TODAY
ALTHOUGH THE DURATION OF RH BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WILL BE LESS
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. MODIS SATELLITE PASS FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
REVEALED MANY SMOKE PLUMES ACROSS ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND NW FLORIDA
SO IT SEEMS THAT CONDITIONS WERE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A FEW
WILDFIRES TO BREAK OUT ACROSS OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONES. DISPERSIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BE MUCH HIGHER ACROSS THE FLORIDA FIRE WX ZONES
TODAY (75 TO 90). SUCH VALUES ONLY NEED TO COINCIDE WITH ONE HOURLY
OBSERVATION OF RH OF 35 PERCENT OR LOWER FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO
BE MET...SO A MORE EXPANSIVE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR TODAY.
DISPERSIONS REMAIN HIGH FOR THURSDAY...AND ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS
EXPANDED TO COVER THE SAME AREA AS TODAYS WARNING FOR SIMPLICITY.
DATA FROM SACC SUGGESTS ERC VALUES RUNNING AROUND 90TH PERCENTILE
EVEN IN OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES. WITH THIS IN MIND...AND ONGOING
DROUGHT...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN IF EXACT RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE NOT MET...THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE QUITE HIGH AREAWIDE THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND PARTICULARLY TODAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 85 55 85 61 84 / 0 0 0 20 10
PANAMA CITY 80 62 86 63 82 / 0 0 0 10 10
DOTHAN 84 54 84 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 85 54 84 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 10
VALDOSTA 85 56 84 60 82 / 0 0 0 20 10
CROSS CITY 84 59 85 63 83 / 0 0 10 20 20
APALACHICOLA 82 61 83 65 81 / 0 0 0 20 10

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
CALHOUN...CENTRAL WALTON...COASTAL BAY...COASTAL
JEFFERSON...COASTAL WAKULLA...GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND
BAY...INLAND FRANKLIN...INLAND GULF...INLAND JEFFERSON...INLAND
WAKULLA...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...LEON...LIBERTY...WASHINGTON.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...CENTRAL WALTON...
COASTAL BAY...COASTAL JEFFERSON...COASTAL WAKULLA...
GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND BAY...INLAND FRANKLIN...INLAND
GULF...INLAND JEFFERSON...INLAND WAKULLA...INLAND WALTON...
JACKSON...LEON...LIBERTY...WASHINGTON.

GM...NONE.

BLOCK/LAMERS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KSLC 202154
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
350 PM MDT TUE SEP 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING.

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN TODAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS COVERS UTAH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A REGION OF 250-550 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL UTAH AND EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING BEFORE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
AROUND SUNSET.

RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FURTHER DRYING
ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...STILL SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED MENTION OF CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH. REMAINDER OF THE STATE WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MOUNTAIN/VALLEY CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING THE WINDS
ACROSS THE STATE.

RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A SLOW...AND MODEST...WARMING TREND. AIRMASS SHOULD BE
QUITE DRY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE NO MENTION OF
CONVECTION....EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE EVOLUTION OF A
TROUGH OFF OF THE WEST COAST. THE OPERATIONAL GFS EJECTS A WEAK
WAVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. ECMWF ON
THE OTHER HAND BRINGS THE WEAKENING WAVE THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER AND
INDICATES THAT IT WILL HAVE MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AND THERE
ARE CERTAINLY GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH SUPPORT IT. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE WITH SOME LOW POPS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 03 TO 04Z THEN SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST.

.FIRE WEATHER....LINGERING MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED A FEW AFTERNOON
BUILDUPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE
THERE WILL BE A ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH
CENTRAL UTAH AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...GRAHAM
FIRE WEATHER...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 190944
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
544 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TRACK THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. A DIGGING TROF AND ASSOCIATED...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWS STRATOCU BANKED AGAINST THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...THE RESULT OF MOIST UPSLOPING SERLY
FLOW. ELSEWHERE...MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN
ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG...MAINLY IN THE DEEP
RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. AS OCCURRED SUN
AM...EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE BY ARND 13Z. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE
MDL DATA SUGGESTS STRATOCU ACROSS THE SC MTNS WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT...LIKELY NOT BREAKING UP BEFORE CLOUD SHIELD FROM
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ARRIVES THIS AFTN. BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR
TRENDS HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO SREF POPS...WHICH SUGGEST SHRA
REACH THE NW MTNS DURING THE AFTN...BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS.

RETREATING SFC RIDGE WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LGT ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY TDY. ACROSS THE NW MTNS...BUKKIT INDICATES GUSTS NR 20KTS
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY ASSOC WITH ARRIVAL OF LL JET.

WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE BALANCED BY INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TDY...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO THE THOSE OF SUNDAY
/MAINLY IN THE 60S/.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LL JET PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHRA. ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF RANGES FROM
BTWN 0.2 AND 0.4 INCHES. GEFS LL JET AND PWAT ANOMALIES SUGGESTS
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT OVR
THE NW MTNS...AND EARLY TUE AM ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. CLOUD
COVER AND SURGE OF HIGHER DWPTS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT
IN A MUCH MILDER NIGHT THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

WEAKENING SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUES...LEAVING
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO DIE OUT ACROSS SE PA ON TUESDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL -SHRA TUE AFTN
ACROSS THE SE. HOWEVER...WANING LG SCALE FORCING SUGGEST MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL BE OVER BY MIDDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE LINGERING POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL PA
ON TUES...SO DESPITE 850 TEMPS NR 12C...TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO RISE
HIGHER THAN THE U60S/L70S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST THRU SAT...AS MED RANGE GUIDANCE
HANDLING EVOLUTION OF DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW IN A SIMILAR MANNER.
BULK OF ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL RUNS TRACK UPPER LOW SLOWLY SEWRD
TO ARND MICHIGAN BY FRI/SAT...AS ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS PA. LATEST GEFS PLUMES SUGGEST THURSDAY AS THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FRAME FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN PA...AND
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN PA. GEFS...AS WELL AS OPER EC
AND CMC...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL
FROM THIS SYSTEM...ESP EASTERN PA. TEMPS WED-FRI ARE LIKELY TO
AVERAGE ABV NORMAL...MAINLY DUE TO MILD NIGHTS ASSOC WITH CLOUD
COVER AND HIGH DWPTS.

MDL DIVERGENCE BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT BY SAT NITE/SUN.
HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL MDL DATA STILL SHOWING UPPER TROF LOCATED
OVER OR JUST WEST OF PA. SO...ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE MAY HAVE
SHIFTED EAST...STILL NEED TO MENTION CHC OF SHRA THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COMBINATION OF LOW PRES OFF THE EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND KEEP A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THIS FLOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY BY MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LESS UPSLOPE FLOW BUT A GREATER AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AT THE SURFACE. CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT SOME
MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ISOLD IFR AND BRIEF LIFR CIGS AT
JST...UNV...AOO AND IPT. ANY LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL FORM AROUND
09Z...AND DISSIPATING OR LIFTING BY 15Z. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAER TONIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY...EARLY TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MMON NIGHT-TUE...MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS.
WED...VFR.
THU-FRI...MVFR POSS IN SCT SHOWERS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...ROSS/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...CERU/RXR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 180934
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
534 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A DYING COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A DIGGING TROF AND ASSOCIATED...SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING STRATOCU BANKED AGAINST
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AND VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PA. SHORT
RANGE MDL DATA STRONGLY SUGGESTS THIS LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL MIX
OUT TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE AM. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
LANCASTER/YORK COUNTIES...WHERE STRATOCU COULD BACK IN FROM THE MOIST
EASTERLY FETCH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES OFF THE COAST.

THE SUNSHINE TODAY SHOULD HELP MODIFY OUR COOL AIR MASS...WITH
AFTN READINGS A COUPLE DEGS HIGHER THAN THOSE OF SATURDAY. 850
TEMPS NR 6C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE M/U60S.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL PA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRATOCU TONIGHT AS BLYR COOLS AND PERSISTENT SERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO ASCEND THE MTNS. ELSEWHERE...CALM WIND AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG. TONIGHT WILL
BE ANOTHER CHILLY ONE...AS DRY AIR MASS RESULTS IN CONDS FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. CAN/T RULE OUT A TOUCH OF FROST OVR THE N
MTNS...WHERE TEMPS LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE 30S.

STAGNANT WX PATTERN BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY...AS WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GRT LKS...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE E COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE WITH A CHC OF LATE DAY SHRA OVR THE W MTNS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD MDL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF EARLY WEEK
SHORTWAVE...SIGNALING THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA WILL OCCUR
MON NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. ENS MEAN QPF RANGES FROM NR 0.5 INCHES
OVR THE NW MTNS...TO LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE SE ZONES.
THE DYING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL
STRETCH OUT SW/NE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...POSSIBLY PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION TUE AFTN.

ALL MDL DATA INDICATING A DEEP TROUGH WILL FORM OVR THE GRT
LKS/MIDWEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...BRINGING SW FLOW
AND MILDER...MORE HUMID AIR TO CENTRAL PA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TIMING OF ASSOC COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...LATEST GEFS PLUMES
SUGGEST THURSDAY AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ASSOC WITH FROPA. GEFS...AS WELL AS OPER EC AND CMC...INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL LATE NEXT WEEK. EVEN
AFTER SFC FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE AREA...UNSETTLED...SHOWERY WX
IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS BULK OF MDL GUIDANCE
SHOWS UPPER TROF REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.

A WARMER PATTERN OVERALL FOR PA NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BIGGEST
CHANGE WILL BE WARMER NIGHTS DUE TO MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMBINATION OF LOW PRES OFF THE EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CAUSE
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER PRIMARILY THE SC MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ANY CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...SCT LIGHT AM VALLEY FOG POSS...LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING MVFR
CIGS.
MON NIGHT-TUE...MVFR POSS IN SCT SHOWERS.
WED...VFR.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...ROSS/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 160926
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
526 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A DYING COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. A
DIGGING TROF AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT COULD AFFECT
THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF FOG
IN THE DEEP RIVER VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS NORTH OF I-80 COULD ACTUALLY SEE A FREEZE THIS AM
/JOHNSONBURG 31F AT 08Z/. HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT OBS...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE VAST MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
THE M30S AND L40S.

TODAY WILL DAWN MSUNNY OVER ALL BUT THE NW MTNS..WHERE STRATOCU
CONTINUE TO BLOW OFF LK ERIE. HOWEVER...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THICKENING
CIRRUS UPSTREAM IN ADVANCE OF MIDWEST SHORTWAVE. AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES EAST...EXPECT GRADUALLY THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA TDY...WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPS A BIT UNDER WHAT THE 850
TEMPS COULD SUPPORT. MAX READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U50S
MTNS...TO M60S SUSQ VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE SLIDING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT...HELPING TO GENERATE AN AREA OF BKN TO POSSIBLY OVC MID
CLOUDS. SHOULD THIS EVENT NOT UNFOLD AS ADVERTISED BY THE
MODELS...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT POSSIBLE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS
THE TYPICALLY COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTH...AS PWATS WILL REMAIN
LOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PARKED DIRECTLY OVR PA.

MDL DATA TRACKS SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN
OVR THE REGION...SO FCST REMAINS DRY. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN SUGGEST A
BRIGHTENING TREND BY SAT AFTN...AS LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF TROF
SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THE ADDED SUNSHINE COULD PUSH TEMPS A BIT
HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH MOST SPOTS WELL INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALL MDL DATA INDICATING LG SFC HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
OVER NEW ENG SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THRU CENTRAL PA. THUS...OUR STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WX SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GEFS PWATS REMAIN IN THE -1 TO -2SD
RANGE...INDICATING THE CHILLY MORNINGS WILL LAST INTO MONDAY AM.

FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE NEXT WEEK...ALL OF
WHICH INDICATE A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING AND INCREASE
IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PENN.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL
WEAKEN AND STRETCH OUT SW/NE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
A POSSIBLE...BRIEF 12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD WITH LOWER POPS INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SECOND...AND STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED TO SCTD AFTERNOON TSRA FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. GEFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS NEXT
WEEK...AS SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH DRAWS WARMER AIR
INTO THE STATE. NIGHTTIME TEMPS SHOULD BE MUCH MILDER NEXT WEEK
DUE TO AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
PERSIST ACROSS PA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING EXTENDED
PERIOD OF PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS. CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS. THOUGH WINDS MAY STAY UP JUST
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION IN MOST PLACES.

VFR CONTINUES FRIDAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND LIGHT NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...AM VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-010-
011.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KSLC 272201
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
355 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL DRIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO UTAH. WESTERLY FLOW WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS UTAH. GPS-MET SENSOR CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT
COLUMN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS HOVERING AROUND 1.20 INCHES IN SALT
LAKE CITY. AFTERNOON MODIS IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES STATEWIDE. AIRMASS
QUICKLY DESTABILIZED IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AND MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE
IN THE NORTHWEST. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AROUND 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE AT 2100 UTC. ANALYSIS
STILL SHOWS DECENT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS
WHAT HAS BEEN HOLDING BACK THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTH. ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL ERODE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ENABLING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED STATEWIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST ON SUNDAY CUTTING OFF FEED OF DEEP
MOISTURE. AIRMASS WHICH IS IN PLACE WILL MODIFY A BIT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL LOWER FROM TODAYS VALUES. DECENT
INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE...
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WITH WEAK SHEAR...THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED.

SLOW DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FIRST DECENT TROUGH OF THE LATE SUMMER. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE
A SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND A LARGELY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...A WINDY DAY CAN BE ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
MOVES THE UPPER FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND QUICKLY WEAKENS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AS A
SECOND AND STRONGER WAVE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION ON FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION SHOW A DRY AND
COOLER PERIOD FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK INTO THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL BETWEEN 02 AND
03Z WHEN A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED. THIS WIND SHIFT TIMING
MAY OCCUR EARLIER DUE TO OUTFLOW WINDS FROM CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SLC VALLEY. BEST THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WILL BE BETWEEN 01
AND 05Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS LED TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE THROUGH TODAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF UTAH...AND GUSTY WINDS MORE LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN HALF.

THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY...WITH GRADUAL DRYING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THIS WILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON
FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

PUBLIC...GRAHAM
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOENING
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KSLC 271647
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1030 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS TODAY THEN START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINS CENTERED NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. THE KSLC SOUNDING INDICATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AT 1.05 INCHES AND THE SALT LAKE CITY
GPS-MET SENSOR INDICATES THAT THIS HAS RISEN TO NEAR 1.20 INCHES
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MODIS IMAGERY FROM OVERNIGHT SATELLITE
PASS INDICATES THAT SIMILAR VALUES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH.

WEAK SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO LIFTING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
MORNING AND BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AS IT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATER TODAY. SO
ANTICIPATE SOME POTENTIAL SUPPRESSION ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
STATE...FOR A BIT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AIRMASS WILL
RECOVER ENOUGH FOR TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THERE IS ALREADY 500-100 J/KG OF
SURFACE-BASE CAPE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS STILL 75-150 J/KG OVER MUCH OF
THE SAME AREA. EXPECT THIS INHIBITION TO ERODE BY 1900 UTC WITH
TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION SOON FOLLOWING. NORTH WILL DESTABILIZE
OVER THE SAME PERIOD AND EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTH ALONG LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE. WITH THE
STATE UNDER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS THE FLOW ALOFT IS VERY WEAK. THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS VERY
LITTLE SHEAR OVER THE REGION THAT WOULD LEAD TO BETTER STORM
ORGANIZATION...THEREFORE ANTICIPATE LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWER THAN TYPICAL LFC HEIGHTS FOR THE GREAT BASIN
...PERHAPS AS LOW AS 2000M AGL...COMBINED WITH WEAK FLOW AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. ANTICIPATE SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND BOUNDARY MERGERS.
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE BEHIND WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH IS PRIMARY REASON THAT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT ISSUED.
HOWEVER...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPERATURE AND POP GRIDS THIS MORNING.

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE SLC TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE
MOST LIKELY IMPACTS. AWAY FROM STORMS...SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z...WITH A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE...WITH HEAVY RAIN MORE LIKELY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH...AND GUSTY WINDS MORE LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF.

THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY...WITH GRADUAL DRYING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...THIS WILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON AS FAR AS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS GO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE.

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

PUBLIC...GRAHAM
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOENING
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 270835 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2011

ADDED TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE SECIONS

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

WEAK SFC COOL FRONT WL EXIT SOUTHEAST WI EARLY THIS MRNG. LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE VCNTY OF FRONT INTERACTING WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER JET TO CAUSE AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS EXPCD TO
ALSO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF WI THIS MRNG BUT MAY LINGER FOR A TIME
BEYOND 12Z.

INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BEHIND SFC
FRONT HELPING TO MINIMIZE WIDESPREAD FOG THREAT THIS MRNG AS WELL.
ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS TO
RESULT IN FEW-SCT CU REDEVELOPING LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. DRY AIR
AND MIXING SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CEILINGS WITH M/S CONDITIONS
EXPCD FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY. WINDS TURNING ONSHORE WL KEEP
LAKESHORE AREAS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER WRN
CWA TNGT WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG
LATE...HOWEVER SOME CONCERN OVER AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS ENCROACHING
FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW WL LIMIT FOG MENTION TO WI RIVER VALLEY AND
LOW AREAS OF WEST.

PER MODIS IMAGERY...LAKE SFC TEMP AROUND 21.5C. LOW LEVEL COOL AIR
ADVECTION OVER LAKE TONIGHT CAUSES DELTA T TO APPROACH 12 DEGREES.
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT
IN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEARSHORE AREA LATE
TNGT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. FOR NOW WL CONT M/CLR WORDING.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ON NAM...WITH GFS
SHOWING SOME CLOUDS SHIFTING THROUGH. 00Z NAM/GFS RUNS NOW DO NOT
HAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...REDUCING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.

ONSHORE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS ON SUNDAY NEAR THE
SHORE...COMBINED WITH DELTA T VALUES IN THE 10 TO 12 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE...BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN 1000/850MB LAYER FAIRLY DRY ON
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS...WITH NAM SHOWING MORE MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WILL LEAVE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR NEAR LAKE GIVEN LACK OF
MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS.

OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
QUIET WEATHER. COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE
70S SUNDAY.

THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION RETURNING. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH AIRMASS REMAINING FAIRLY DRY OTHERWISE. WENT WITH
DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS A RESULT. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF KEEPING IT NORTH OF THE AREA.
NAM DOES NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS MONDAY NIGHT
DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING IN. THUS...WILL KEEP MONDAY NIGHT DRY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOW ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE REGION. GFS TAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH THE AREA. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME...SO LEFT
LOW POPS IN FOR TUESDAY. STILL SOME EFFECTS OF VORTICITY MAXIMA
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT TO LEAVE LOW POPS IN
FORECAST.

GFS/ECMWF THEN SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THEN OCCURS UPSTREAM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE
SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS ONLY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...SLOWER ON THE ECMWF. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR LATER IN
THE WEEK...ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

.AVIATION...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
AND DRIER AIR PUSH BEHIND SFC COOL FRONT MINIMIZING WIDESPREAD FOG
THREAT EARLY THIS MRNG. EXPC FEW-SCT CU REDEVELOPING THIS MRNG AFTER
MID CLOUDS FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SLIDE SOUTH OF AREA. PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI DEPENDING ON AMOUNT
OF HIGH CLOUDS ENCROACHING FROM WEST.

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND EXITING SFC FRONT WL
RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 22 KNOTS AND
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WL CAUSE WAVES TO EXCEED 4 FEET. STRONGEST
WINDS EXPCD OVER THE SOUTH...SO WL POST SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR SRN
THREE ZONES FOR THIS AFTN THRU TNGT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
LMZ644>646.

SHORT/LONG TERM...08/WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...11/MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 260845
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
445 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE
IRENE WILL TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
LIKELY MAKE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE HARDLY ANY EFFECTS FROM THE STORM. FAIR
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE HURRICANE.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT AIR IS GETTING DRIER AT
THE SAME TIME. WINDS OFF THE LAKE ARE CREATING LOW CLOUDS AND MAY
EVEN MAKE A SPOT OF DZ ACROSS THE N VERY EARLY THIS AM. IN
GENERAL...THOUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE A REALLY NICE DAY.
TOWERING CU POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND
ELEVATED HEATING SURFACES COMBINE FORCES. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMAL. EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN THOSE CLOUDS...AND HIGHS
TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT MILDER THAN NORMS.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE TO SPEAK OF FOR WX ON THE PERIPHERY OF EYE-RENE.
BUT...THERE MAY BE AN ADVANCE BAND OF CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THE
STORM WHICH MAY TRY TO POKE INTO THE SERN COS LATER AT NIGHT.
QUITE A DEWPOINT/PWAT/THETA-E GRADIENT FROM E TO WEST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE IRENE AS WELL
AS POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THE HWRF IS CLOSEST TO THE OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK FORECAST...WHILE THE MAJORITY OF REGIONAL AND GLOBAL
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY SLOWER...WITH THE GFS 2ND CLOSEST
FOLLOWED BY THE NAM...THE ECMWF/UKMET TO THE LEFT OF THE NHC TRACK
BUT SIMILAR IN SPEED TO THE NAM...AND THE CANADIAN WHICH IS CLOSE
TO THE GFS EXCEPT A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT. THE GFS HAS
MADE A JOG TO THE WEST TOWARD THE CONSISTENTLY-LEFT ECMWF...WHILE
ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAINS OFFSHORE. A SIMILAR TREND IS NOTED IN
THE MAJORITY OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK HAS FOLLOWED ALONG AS WELL. OVERALL THE SPREAD IS RELATIVELY
NARROW BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF TROPICAL RNFL ON THE WRN SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM STILL MAKES THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT/UNCERTAIN. ON
A LARGER SCALE...SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIANCES IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF A COMPLICATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVOLVING OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPEARS TO PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE IN THE PATH
OF IRENE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO USE A MULTI-MODEL BLEND OR
ENSEMBLE APPROACH FOR GRIDDED POPS AND QPF. EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
STILL HAS THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF BEING NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY
HEAVY TROPICAL RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HAVE CONTINUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS IN THE HWO.

IRENE IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED INTO A LG SCALE TROUGH PROGRESSING
EWD THROUGH SERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY NWLY
CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE AND REBOUNDING HEIGHTS ALOFT
IN THE WAKE OF IRENE SHOULD AFFORD A SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY
DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING PATCHY VALLEY FOG ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL PA. LATEST SREF AND HRRR DATA BOTH SUPPORT IFR
CONDS THRU ARND 13Z AT IPT...MDT AND LNS. OTHER PROBLEM AREA IS THE
NW MTNS /BFD/...WHERE BKN STRATOCU HAS KEPT FOG A BAY SO FAR.
HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS LOW CIGS OR DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY AT BFD FOR A COUPLE HOURS SURROUNDING DAWN. GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...WHERE DRIER AIR HAS
WORKED IN AND GROUND NOT AS WET. A BRIEF DIP TO IFR VSBYS IS
POSSIBLE AT AOO AND UNV BTWN 10Z-12Z.

LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL MOST STUBBORN ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE
MIXING WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE. 03Z SREF
DATA INDICATES IFR CONDS COULD PERSIST AT BFD UNTIL ARND NOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF TO VFR CONDS MOST SPOTS DURING
THE LATE AM HOURS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH
SCT-BKN CU. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED PM TSRA ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA
IN VICINITY OF A REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...PROBABILITY OF ANY
IMPACTS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...AM FOG POSSIBLE.
SAT...ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS.
SUN...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE...MAINLY EASTERN PA.
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
HYDROLOGY...

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 132035 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011

.UPDATE...

ADDED FIRST 24 HOUR DISCUSSION ALONG WITH AVIATION AND MARINE
SECTIONS

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

UPPER LOW OVER NW IOWA/SW WI/NW IL WILL SCOOT ACROSS NORTHERN IL
THIS EVENING. WITH IT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL...WITH CAPE VALUES A
LITTLE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND 6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SUB SEVERE.

STORMS WILL DIE DOWN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON THAT ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRAILING VORT MAX BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THESE STORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA. FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND THE USUAL
LOW LYING AREAS WITH THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS TODAY
AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI.

HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
ACTUALLY POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW. 22C LAKE SFC
TEMP PER MODIS 8-DAY AVERAGE...AND 10-11C 850MB AIR COMING DOWN THE
LAKE...GIVES ALMOST A 13C DIFFERENCE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BEING
GENERATED DUE TO THIS FEATURE. THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE QPF
WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT A MINIMUM...WE CAN EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE LAKESHORE WITH A MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR THE LAKE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

BY SUN AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BE PRETTY GUSTY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
LOW...ESPECIALLY SUN MORNING. THEY WILL ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

ALL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVER IA/WI LATE AT NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY RADIATION FOG. HAVE FOG IN THE WISCONSIN
RIVER AND MUCH HIGHER CLOUD COVER FOR LIKELY STRATUS AS WELL. MAY
HAVE FOG ELSEWHERE TOO SO MAY HAVE TO EXPAND MENTION OF FOG IN
LATER FORECASTS.

MONDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SURFACE HIGH OVER IL/WI/MI AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. GFS DEVELOPS ODD
LOOKING NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF LIGHT PRECIP FROM NORTHEAST IL INTO
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. GUESSING IT IS TRYING TO DEVELOP LAKE
BREEZE STORMS BUT IT IS THE OUTLIER AND SEEMS LIKE A MAJOR
STRETCH.

TUESDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE RIDGE IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM MICHIGAN AND
RETURN FLOW REMAINS WELL WEST OF ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
DURING THE DAY.

MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS FRONT INTO CENTRAL OR WESTERN
WISCONSIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

LOOKS LIKE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH RATHER FAST AND BE EAST OF
WISCONSIN BY THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIP CHANCE LOOKS MAINLY FROM
EARLY REMNANT ACTIVITY AND ANY NEW DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST.

THURSDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

WEAK SURFACE HIGH IN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT AND
RETURN FLOW WELL WEST OF WI. ECMWF DOES HAVE SPOTTY WARM ADVECTION
ACTIVITY BUT THAT SEEMS LIKE A LONG SHOT.

SATURDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

USUAL TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT ARE PRIMARY PROBLEM. GFS IS
FASTER AND STRONGER WITH NEXT FRONT AND MUCH WETTER, WHILE ECMWF
IS A TAD SLOWER AND MUCH DRIER. SMALL POPS SEEM WARRANTED.

.AVIATION...

UPPER LOW CROSSING THE WI/IL BORDER THIS EVENING WILL
CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
STORMS WILL NOT BE MOVING QUICKLY. VERY HEAVY RAIN CAUSING LIFR
VSBYS...PEA SIZE HAIL AND A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY DARK OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...WITH COOLER AIR FLOWING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
LAKE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW...IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

.MARINE...

WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AIR ON
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FLOWS DOWN THE LAKE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUN AFTERNOON...BUT WAVES WILL BE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVY CRITERIA BY EARLY SUN EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVY IN EFFECT THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUN EVENING.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-646.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY
FOR LMZ643-644.

SHORT/LONG TERM...CRAVEN/02
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC/13

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 122024
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
324 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OUT
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER MAIN WAVE. THESE FACTORS BRING INHERENT
DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTHERN WI.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /PWATS/ 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES...HIGHEST IN
SOUTHWEST WI. 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SFC AND 300-310K THETA-E
ADVECTION INTO SW WI AS WELL. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 30 TO 40
KNOTS...AIDED BY 20+ KNOT SW 850MB WINDS. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES
LESS THAN 500J/KG DO NOT SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO SPC REMOVED SOUTHERN WI FROM THE SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING 500MB VORT MAX OVER
SOUTHERN MN WITH DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION INTO WESTERN WI
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SHOWERS WITH PROBABLY A LITTLE THUNDER /NOT
DETECTED WITH THE CLOUD TO GROUND NLDN/ POPPING UP ALONG THIS AREA
OF VORTICITY ADVECTION...THETA-E ADVECTION...WIND SHEAR...LLJ...AND
HIGHER PWATS THIS AFTERNOON. 16Z HRRR PICKS UP ON THIS WEAK
CONVECTION...BUT GENERATES MORE WIDESPREAD REFLECTIVITY ALONG THE
MAIN VORT ADVECTION AREA A COUPLE HOURS LATER. THIS AREA CAN BE
TIMED BY THE BACK EDGE OF THE HIGHER WATER VAPOR VALUES IN THE WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING A
COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WITH MAX DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN WI.

THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP FROM APPROX MIDNIGHT FOR AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS...UNTIL THE MAIN VORT MAX CAN APPROACH WI. THE
MAIN VORT MAX IS IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE. HOWEVER...12Z ECMWF AND REGIONAL CANADIAN MODELS...AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS...GENERATE A BLOB OF QPF OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z SAT. THIS MAY BE DUE TO AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE
UPPER JET SPEED OR JUST THE PLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY ADVECTION.
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THE BREAK IN PRECIP WILL
LAST...SO JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FCST FOR 06Z TO 12Z INSTEAD OF
LIKELY.

THEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH THE
MAIN 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX. MOST OF THE MODELS TIME THE
HIGHEST QPF OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AROUND 15Z SAT AND KEEP IT HANGING
AROUND MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. LIKELY
POPS IN FCST...NOT QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BUMP THEM UP TO
DEFINITE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000J/KG
WITH WEAK BULK SHEAR...SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THIS PERIOD FEATURES THE FIRST OF MANY SALVOS ACROSS OUR BOW
SUGGESTING THAT THE TRANSITION SEASON IS FAST APPROACHING. THE SFC
LOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST BY THIS TIME WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROF FOLLOWING IN SHORT ORDER. HOWEVER...THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS
DOMINANTLY CYCLONIC WITH SOME SECONDARY SPOKES ROLLING THROUGH
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE SFC LOW IS ENOUGH TO GET DELTA T/S OVER THE LAKE LARGE
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR MESOSCALE METEOROLOGICAL
STUDIES /CIMSS/ MODIS 8 DAY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN SHOWS WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR OR AT THEIR SEASONAL PEAK
OF 71 TO 73F. H8 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT 12C...BRINGING A DELTA T OF
10. NOT EXCESSIVE...BUT COUPLED WITH THE FORCING FROM THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED LLV CONVERGENCE...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CONTRAST AND FORCING QUICKLY DIMINISH.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH
VERY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COULD LEAD TO SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED LOW LYING TERRAIN.

.TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING AND RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS WILL
TREK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME. NOT A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY AND PLEASANT YET AGAIN.

.AVIATION...AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...DAVIS
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...CRONCE

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 120923
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
523 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD
PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN AND INTENSIFY
AS IT REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS PRODUCING A NEARLY
CLOUDLESS MORNING OVER CENTRAL PA. 07Z MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY
SHOWS FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN PA...WHERE COOL
AIR IN CONTACT WITH RELATIVELY WARMER RIVER/STREAM WATER. ANY FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 8-9AM.

RETURN FLOW WAA PRODUCING PATCHY CLOUDINESS ACROSS S ONTARIO THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY GRAZE NORTHERN PA LATER TODAY.
ALTHOUGH NOTHING ON RADAR NOW...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA
ACROSS THE N TIER LATER TODAY...AS ATMOS WARMS/DESTABILIZES.

FURTHER SOUTH...ANOMALOUS PWATS PROGGED BY THE GEFS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA SHOULD ENSURE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THAT
PORTION OF THE STATE. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS NR 14C SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO HIGH TEMPS FROM THE U70S MTNS...TO L/M80S IN THE VALLEYS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT...AS PATTERN
REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR RAD COOLING...WITH SFC HIGH OVR THE AREA
AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS REMAINING. MOST PLACES LIKELY TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S...ALTHOUGH NORMAL COOL SPOTS OF THE NORTH
COULD DIP TO THE U40S.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE E COAST ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE STATE.
RISING DWPTS...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD RESULT IN
SCT AFTN CONVECTION...CONCENTRATED MAINLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN PA SHOULD
HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S. HOWEVER...A BIT MORE SUN EXPECTED
OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY...LIKELY PUSHING TEMPS THERE INTO THE L/M80S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE SPREAD AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO
EVOLUTION OF DIGGING TROF OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS
WEEKEND...ALL OF WHICH SHOW TROF EVOLVING INTO A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...AS
SFC LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE STATE AND GEFS PWAT/SOUTHERLY LOW LVL
WIND ANOMALIES ARE MOST IMPRESSIVE. 00Z GEFS INDICATING MEAN
RAINFALL OF BTWN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS
OVER 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE REMAIN QUITE HIGH...SO NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD
FLOODING ATTM.

RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE CUTOFF WILL TRY TO NUDGE THE DECAYING
CLOSED LOW OFF OF THE COAST LATER TUESDAY...BUT DAMP CONDITIONS
MAY LINGER FOR A PART OF THE DAY BEFORE THIS HAPPENS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH RISING HEIGHTS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE
MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WARY OF ADDITIONAL
CANADIAN ENERGY CRESTING THE UPPER MIDWESTERN RIDGE FOR WED-THU
WHICH MAY PREVENT WHOLESALE UPPER RIDGING FROM BUILDING EAST OF
THE GLAKS REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THINGS MAINLY DRY FOR WED-
THU WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE EARLY WEEK CLOSED LOW. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP UNDER THE CLOSED LOW WILL TRANSITION TO
NEAR NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK.

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH DECENT INVERSIONS SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF PA...EXPECT LOCAL PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO AGAIN FORM
TOWARD SUNRISE...AFFECTING IPT AND POSS BFD. ANY FOG WILL LIFT BY
13Z. VFR FLYING WILL RESUME AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR BCMG MVFR WITH RAIN LKLY IN MOST AREAS BY SAT NGT.
SUN-MON...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND ISOLD TSTMS.
TUE...VFR.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...CERU/RXR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KPSR 050936
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 AM MST FRI AUG 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MOISTURE...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
...WILL RETURN TO MOST OF ARIZONA MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEK. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN TREND DOWN THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS TEMPORARILY PUSHED
INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY DRY AIR WAS
NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
NEVADA...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS FELLS INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN
SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY. 05.00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THIS DRY
AIR NICELY...WITH THE MODIFIED KVEF RAOB DEPICTING A PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF JUST 0.3 INCHES. PHOENIX RAOB AND MODIS DATA BOTH HAD ABOUT
1.2 INCHES. THE 05.00Z GFS APPEARED TO INITIALIZE MOISTURE LEVELS
THE BEST WITH THE ECMWF A CLOSE SECOND - THE NAM WAS NOTABLY MORE
MOIST. FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WAS WEIGHTED TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF/SREF
BLEND.

THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST. ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WAS
CONTAINED TO THE FAR EASTERN TIP OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST TODAY THEN TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY...
REMAINING JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PUSH BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF ARIZONA...IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH RETREATING/MID-LEVEL
ANTI-CYCLONE REPOSITIONING WESTWARD/A BROAD LOW EJECTING OUT OF
MAINLAND MEXICO AND TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA/POSSIBLE CONVECTION
ACROSS SONORA AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW. IN PARTICULAR...THE GFS HAS
BEEN TRENDING UPWARD WITH MOISTURE VALUES HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY.
BASED ON THIS SCENARIO...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE INCREASED A BIT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING /BUT STILL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/ AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE WAS LEFT FOR SUNDAY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE ONGOING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

BEGINNING MONDAY...AND CONTINUING RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY...LITTLE
CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE WEATHER PATTERN
BECOMES VERY STABLE ACROSS THE LOWER 48. MID-LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE WILL
BE CENTERED NEAR TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON DURING THIS PERIOD...LEAVING
OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN AREA OF VERY WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE BACK UP TO TYPICAL LEVELS RESULTING
IN NEAR-AVERAGE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT
SEEING ANY SIGNS OF ANYTHING THAT COULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTION
DURING THIS PERIOD /LIKE THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF A SHORT WAVE IN THE
WESTERLIES OR AN INCOMING EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS MEXICO/...THUS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON THE TYPICAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FORCING AND COLLISIONS
EACH DAY. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THIS PERIOD
AS THE MOISTURE DOESN/T GET TOO ENTRENCHED THERE AND WARMER
MID-LEVELS INHIBIT MUCH INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES
CWA-WIDE WILL SHOW LITTLE VARIATION GIVEN THE STAGNANT PATTERN.

.AVIATION...
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRI ACROSS MUCH OF AZ. WINDS WILL FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS...GENERALLY REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW 10 KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A SLOW RETURN TO THE AREA BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING A RETURN OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES. WHILE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL PICK-UP...WIDESPREAD
AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...INIGUEZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KSLC 270426
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1020 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
UTAH TONIGHT. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH...FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BIT OF A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO
UTAH DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH A TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF UTAH. LATEST MODIS PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE IS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM THE CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT TO NEAR ELY NV.
THIS IS SAME AXIS ALONG WHICH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS TENDED TO BE LOW CENTROID IN NATURE AND WITH LOW
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION HEIGHTS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE...
THIS RESULTED IN VERY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.

ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED DRAMATICALLY SINCE 0200 UTC AS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION HAS DEVELOPED. STILL SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE STATE...PRIMARILY FROM WEST CENTRAL UT
THROUGH NORTHEAST UT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS
DIMINISHED GREATLY AND HAVE ALLOWED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT
0400 UTC. AREA OF CURRENT ACTIVITY MATCHES UP WELL WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300 HPA JET
STREAK AND MODEST MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AT 700 HPA. ANTICIPATE
BOTH OF THESE LARGER SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO LINGER OVER EASTERN UTAH THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS MODEST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS AVAILABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS TO INCREASE LATE EVENING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL UTAH.

HAVE ALSO MODIFIED WIND ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS WHERE BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. OTHERWISE....ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER.

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL. CEILINGS OVER TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FEET AGL.

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME DRYING HAS SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. WETTING RAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO
THIS EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS. MODEST DRYING IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
DISTRICT FROM THE WEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BUT THEY WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS AND THE THREAT OF WETTING
RAINS WILL BE LOWER. MOISTURE WILL START TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
DISTRICT FRIDAY WITH A DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION BY SUNDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF WETTING
RAINS AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES.

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

PUBLIC...GRAHAM
FIRE WEATHER...WILENSKY
AVIATION...GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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VISIT...
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----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KSLC 251624
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1024 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY. A PACIFIC TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUESDAY WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BUILD AS A TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS IS ALLOWING AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONE INCH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE
BY THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER WEST CENTRAL UTAH THAT WILL MAKE ITS
WAY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED POPS
AND SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING.

BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH...WHICH WILL ACT TO LIMIT WARMING A BIT TODAY AND
MAY ALSO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL...FEEL THAT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...SCATTERED POPS SEEM TO COVER THE THREAT WELL. COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE A BIT GREATER OVER THE SOUTH...AS CLEARING IS
ALREADY OCCURRING.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS INDICATING PW VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.4
INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW WILL ACT AS FOCI FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW. WILL
SUCH LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE QUITE NUMEROUS.

FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A DRIER AIRMASS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...MODIS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING ONE INCH HAVE PUSHED AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT THIS MORNING. THIS SURGE OF
MOISTURE IS ALSO BRINGING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS CERTAINLY LIMITING INSTABILITY TO THIS
POINT AND A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING NORTH
BELIEVE THAT RISK FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS IS LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SURGE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...ALTHOUGH
FEEL COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL DRY STORMS WOULD BE LIMITED. COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN ON TUESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LIKELY A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY.

WITH MOISTURE SURGING NORTH AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NEW MEXICO...MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE UP QUITE A BIT TODAY AND TUESDAY. DRYING
TREND WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z...BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS
SHIFT WILL OCCUR LATER THAN EXPECTED OR SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
NEARBY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF GUSTY
AND/OR ERRATIC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL.

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...

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VISIT...
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----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KSLC 162156
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
350 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ALLOWING MONSOON MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE ON SUNDAY. THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE
REST OF THE STATE MONDAY AND LINGER OVER THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY. THIS RIDGE IS EXPANDING SLOWLY WESTWARD
ALLOWING MONSOON MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH TOWARD UTAH. EARLY
AFTERNOON MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ACROSS FAR EASTERN UTAH WITH VALUES AROUND AN INCH EAST OF
THE GREEN RIVER RAPIDLY DROPPING OFF TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RETURNING MOISTURE HAS STAYED EAST OF THE CWA
WITH SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE WEST.

MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS STATE ON
SUNDAY. IN THE NAM...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND
THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH IN SOUTHEAST UTAH. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RAPID RETURN WE HAVE SEEN TODAY.
HOWEVER...NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND POSITIVE SURFACE-BASED CAPE
STRUGGLE TO SPREAD WEST OF THE WASATCH AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY A RESULT OF LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...EVEN AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ON THE RISE. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE WITH A MUCH LOWER THREAT WEST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH WITH WEAK FORCING AND
ORGANIZATION IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT AT ALL.
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ACROSS WESTERN UTAH WINDS WILL AGAIN
BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.

MONDAY...COVERAGE OF POSITIVE SURFACE-BASED CAPE...ALBEIT
MODEST...SPREADS STATEWIDE. BEST SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT. ALTHOUGH SBCAPE WILL BE MODEST...0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
30-35 KNOTS INDICATE THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO NEAR AN INCH STATEWIDE...EXCEPT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE WHERE VALUES MAY APPROACH AN INCH
AND A QUARTER. THIS WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH.

REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...ECMWF AND GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT MORE ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO SLIDE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THAN DOES THE GFS. WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND A SUPPRESSION OF 7H TEMPERATURES BELIEVE MAX TEMPS
WILL TREND DOWN FOR TUESDAY...BUT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE ECMWF IN THIS REGARD. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS WAVE...MOISTURE
SLOWLY BEGINS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...BUT
BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED COVERAGE WEST AND SCATTERED COVERAGE EAST. A DRYING
TREND IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

ECMWF AND GFS REALLY BEGIN TO DEVIATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF PLACES THE GREAT BASIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BAGGY TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST ALLOWING MONSOON MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO UTAH.
THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...KEEPS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN MORE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST KEEPING DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW INTO THE REGION. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DURING THIS PERIOD AND HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARD
CLIMATOLOGY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY.

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH
MID EVENING...WITH GUSTS LIKELY NEAR 30 MPH UNTIL AROUND 03Z. A 10
PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS FOR A BRIEF SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND A 50
PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS FOR GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS
VFR WILL PREVAIL UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS WITH LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN UTAH SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING ANOTHER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SURGE TO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN TO MANY LOCATIONS. THE NEXT REAL DRY PERIOD APPEARS TO BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1000 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW 7500
FEET FOR UTZ435-440.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 900 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE UTZ439.

WY...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...GRAHAM
AVIATION...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE

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VISIT...
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----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KSLC 161622
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1015 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL EXPAND SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS ALLOWS DEEP MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
UTAH. MODIS IMAGERY DEPICTED SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST UTAH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF THREE-QUARTERS OF INCH BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/VIRGA
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE SURGE WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH POSITIVE MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO REMAIN MINIMAL AS INSTABILITY IS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. STILL...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST CWA
THIS AFTERNOON....PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRONGER FLOW ACROSS WESTERN UTAH WILL RESULT DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF UTAH.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY COVER IN FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA THIS MORNING.

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATER THAN A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT AN AWW FOR
STRONG WINDS WILL BE REQUIRED.

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FIRE DISTRICT TODAY...PRODUCING AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH.

THE AIRMASS OVER THE DISTRICT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST SUNDAY
AS A TROUGH DIGS OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF WETTING RAINS TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISTRICT SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS MOISTURE SURGE SHOULD BE
PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN UTAH SUNDAY.

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW 7500
FEET FOR UTZ435-440.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ439.

WY...NONE.
&&

GRAHAM/KRUSE

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----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KSLC 101037
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
420 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
INTO MONDAY BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAIN. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST BY MID WEEK
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRYING TREND.

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE
LEAVING MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. MODIS
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
THE STATE WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND HIGHER VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM INDICATE THAT REMNANT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF ARIZONA
HELPING TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL BE DECENT WITH NAM INDICATING THAT A LARGE PORTION
OF NORTHERN UTAH WILL SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 750
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON
SUPPORTS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN. FURTHER
SOUTH HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGER THREAT WITH VERY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND MODEST STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER...ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY...AND
THE WAVE LIFTING NORTH OUT YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION ON THE MOGOLLON
RIM...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOISTURE LARGELY REMAINS IN PLACE INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL
ONSET OF THE DRYING TREND BEGINS TO IMPACT EXTREME WESTERN UTAH.
HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER MOST THE STATE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED STORMS FROM THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

BY TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIG DOWN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS ALLOWS FOR A DRYING TREND OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN. GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DRYING THE
AIRMASS OUT THAN THE NAM...WITH THE ECMWF SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE.
GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED COVERAGE
ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.

BY MID WEEK DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED AS WEST
COAST TROUGH BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED. ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION AND EXPECT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. MAY BEGIN TO SEE A LITTLE
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LARGELY BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THIS
REGARD.

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH SLOPES
OF THE UINTA MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A DOWNWARD TREND IN
FLOWS WILL CONTINUE ON AREA RIVERS NEXT WEEK AS THE SNOW PACK
CONTINUES TO DECREASE. HOWEVER...RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW VERY
FAST AND VERY COLD WELL THROUGH JULY. EXTREME CAUTION IS URGED NEAR
ANY NORTHERN UTAH WATERWAYS.

OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN EXISTS TODAY AND MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH...AS THE AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST AS A RESULT.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
IN THE VICINITY OF THESE SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE TERMINAL WILL DIRECTLY BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM.

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF
THE STATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN. HOWEVER...IN
THE VICINITY OF ANY STORMS THAT FORM...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLOW DRYING TREND AREAWIDE. BY MID-WEEK BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY.

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...GRAHAM
HYDROLOGY...GRAHAM
AVIATION...HOSENFELD
FIRE WEATHER...HOSENFELD

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----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KSLC 032142
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
342 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND
THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO RAPIDLY STREAM IN
FROM ARIZONA. SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES ARE APPROACHING 1 INCH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH...AND THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL SPREAD CROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE
UINTAS...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT AT LEAST THE
EVENING HOURS.

ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A WARMER
AND DRIER AIRMASS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY.
SALT LAKE CITY AIRPORT HAS REACHED 101F THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING
THIS THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR AND THE FIRST WITH A HIGH
TEMPERATURE CROSSING THE CENTURY MARK. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
WARMING A BIT OVER SOUTHERN UTAH...WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS VALUES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
BY MIDWEEK.

OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE
WEEK...WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
RIDGE...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EACH AFTERNOON WITH SOME DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS. NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A WAVE MOVING UP FROM ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THEY DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS...BUT EITHER WAY THIS SHOULD ACT TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION AND HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT FOR THAT PERIOD
ACROSS THE CWA. GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT A DRYING TREND NEAR THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO HAVE TAPERED POPS SLIGHTLY BY DAY 7.

.HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE COTTONWOOD
CREEK...SPRING CREEK...LOGAN RIVER...THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
UINTAS...AND THE UPPER WEBER RIVER. RAPID MELTING OF THE REMAINING
HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THESE RIVERS
NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE HIGH FLOWS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD LEVELS.
EXTREME CAUTION IS URGED NEAR ANY OF THESE RIVERS AS THEY ARE
FLOWING VERY FAST AND VERY COLD.

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS EVENING AS CUMULUS CLOUDS INCH NORTHWARD.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL
PERIODICALLY TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY
DUE TO STORMS PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD.

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TODAY KEEPING A VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTH INTO UTAH ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. LATEST MODIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF
THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH HAVE SURGED NORTH ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL
UTAH. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING...
PARTICULARLY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE SURGE IN CENTRAL
UTAH AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OCCURRING IN AREAS WHERE
FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL. HOWEVER...VERY ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER TERRAIN ANYWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS EVENING.

DESPITE THE INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
STATE HAVE ISSUES A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 435 BELOW 7000 FEET
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO ALL OF UTAH ON
MONDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT
WITH THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS STORMS WILL BE OF THE WET VARIETY ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO BRING MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES UP AS WELL.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR
UTZ435.

WY...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC/HYDROLOGY...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KSLC 031605
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1005 AM MDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER THIS
MORNING...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS
ALLOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH. SATELLITE DERIVED PWS ARE ALREADY RUNNING IN THE
0.65 TO 0.75 RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...AND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
THE GFS INDICATING 1 INCH OR GREATER PWS REACHING FAR SOUTHWEST
UTAH BY THIS EVENING.

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER
SOUTHWEST UTAH...HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS A BIT FOR THAT AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE...RESULTING IN HIGH BASED CONVECTION.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE REMOVED SHOWER WORDING FOR THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAXES STEADY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER...WHILE NORTHERN UTAH WARMS
FURTHER WITH A DRIER AIRMASS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOME WASATCH
FRONT LOCATIONS COULD EVEN SEE MAXES ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK.

THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
FLATTENS...LOWERING HEIGHTS A BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
COOLING TOMORROW...WITH MAXES APPROACHING CLIMO BY TUESDAY WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.

NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST A BIT LATER THAN USUAL...BETWEEN 21Z AND
23Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY IS FOR POTENTIAL OF HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DRY LIGHTNING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
BELIEVE THAT GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL...BUT ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE VALLEYS OF SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH WEST CENTRAL
UTAH. GOES SATELLITE DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MODIS
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BOTH INDICATE THAT VALUES IN EXCESS
OF THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE UTAH-ARIZONA
BORDER. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION TO WET
THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY BUT WILL BE ON THE RISE TOMORROW AS DEEPER MOISTURE SURGES
NORTH INTO UTAH. BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS SPREADING INTO NORTHERN
UTAH. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
YIELD PRIMARILY WET STORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

TRAPHAGAN/GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 192030
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DAYTIME HEATING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DEEPER INSTABILITY AREAS WITH
THE WEAK CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING SUNSET.

HRRR DEVELOPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SFC CONVERGENCE AREA AND
POSSIBLE AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN NE IOWA AND SPREADS
IT INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA FOR THE EARLY EVENING. RUC SNDGS AND LAPS SHOW
SOME STRETCHING POTENTIAL ALONG WITH CAPE INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN
CWA...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT GET A WEAK UPDRAFT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPIN UP A FUNNEL CLOUD. WILL WATCH CLOSELY.

SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET. ANY STORMS WOULD RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT MON MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM
IS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS. CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SCENARIO.

DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM AT LEAST RACINE
TO PORT WASHINGTON. IT IS DEPICTABLE FROM ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND WEB CAMS. WEB CAMS OVER PARTS OF MILWAUKEE ALSO SHOW
VERY LOW CLOUDS...THESE CLOUDS COULD POTENTIALLY DROP TO THE SFC
WHEN DAYTIME HEATING ENDS AROUND SUNSET AND CREATE DENSE FOG OVER
THE CITY. IN ADDITION...ANY FOG FROM THE NEARSHORE COULD ADVECT
ONSHORE THIS EVENING AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

UNCERTAINTY LIES IN WHERE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND 850 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE SET UP AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
IN THE NORTH AND WEST CWA WITH FORCING DUE TO CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF
INCREASING 850MB WINDS FOCUSING MORE TO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NORTH...THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY PER
850-700MB LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FORECASTS. LIFT AIDED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF JET MAX FOCUSED OVER SRN
MN/NERN IA AT 06Z TUESDAY THAT SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS REGION
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH PERSISTENT
EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF SURFACE WARM FRONT...DEVELOPS A DEEP WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 900MB AND 600MB THAT CAPS EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION IN
THE SOUTHEAST...SO CHANCE POPS THERE FOR NOW. HIGHER POPS MAY BE
NEEDED IF SFC FRONT/850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH. MCS
COULD RUMBLE THROUGH LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY IN THE MORNING.

INVERSION WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG OFF THE
LAKE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE...SO WILL KEEP PREVIOUS
SHIFT/S ADDITION OF AREAS OF FOG FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES. COOLER
LAKESHORE LOW TEMPERATURES...WITH WESTERN LOCATIONS SEEING LOWS
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING.

.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER COMES AS APPROACHING UPPER LOW COOLS
MID LAYERS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
TO 40-50 KTS WITH SPEED MAX MOVING UP ERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW. EXTRA
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT COMES WITH DIFFERENTIAL CVA AS ALL MODELS
SHOW A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING THROUGH SRN WI TUESDAY EVENING. IF
MCS DOES DEVELOP AND MOVES ACROSS SRN WI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...IT WILL STABILIZE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A LIKELY POP FOR THE DAY...THOUGH

.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

INSTABILITY WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
WISCONSIN...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE
OVER MUCH OF SRN WI AS SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS FROM E CENTRAL MN
TO EITHER NW WI OR UPPER PENINSULA DEPENDING ON MODEL SOLUTION.
EITHER WAY LOOKS AS IF ENOUGH CAPE FOR PRECIPITATION MODE TO BE
THUNDERSTORMS. IN SPITE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMTH UP TO THE LAKE SHORE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...BUT A BIT COOLER IN THE FAR WEST WHERE
COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND AND UNDER SURFACE LOW WILL REACH FIRST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO
MEDIUM.

IN SPITE OF FASTER PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW VS GFS...ECMWF AND
CANADIAN DROP A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH WISCONSIN THURSDAY...SO
WILL KEEP POPS FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW STILL
CLIPPING EASTERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY...WITH A SHORT WAVE SLIDING
THRU SO HAVE TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR FRIDAY...THOUGH
MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST CWA. DRY WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER WESTERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. MODELS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE SUNDAY...MAINLY
EARLY BUT WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FEED OF DRY AIR AND DRY LOOK TO
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL NOT BRING IN ANY PRECIPITATION. 850 TEMPS
ON THE ECMWF FALL TO +5 TO +6C THURSDAY...BUT CANADIAN ONLY DIPS
TO +9C AT 12Z FRIDAY. A SLOW UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND. WILL USE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH AN OVERALL EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. AT
LEAST IFR FOG WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOWER CIGS. DENSE FOG OVER LAKE
MI NEAR MILWAUKEE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD INLAND AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING...SO MITCHELL FIELD COULD HAVE DENSE FOG FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A
SHORTWAVE AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET AND CONVERGENCE SPREADS INTO
NRN IL/SRN WI AREA. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IT IN TAFS YET.

.MARINE...DENSE FOG TO ABOUT 10 MILES OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN OZAUKEE
COUNTY TO RACINE COUNTY...DEDUCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION AND
MILWAUKEE HARBOR WEBCAMS. DENSE FOG ADVY WILL BE EXPANDED UP TO
SHEBOYGAN...ALTHOUGH SHEBOYGAN WEBCAMS ARE CLEAR FOR NOW...AND ADVY
WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH 9 PM. I DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR HOW
LONG THIS FOG WILL STICK AROUND. THE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DENSE FOG ANYWHERE ON THE LAKE WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FLOWING INTO
THE AREA.

LATEST COAST WATCH AND MODIS IMAGERY HAS LAKE MI SFC TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...CONFIRMED BY SRN LK MI BUOY.
STRONG WARM FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS INCREASING THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT INTO TUE. CONVECTION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THE WARM
FRONT APPROACHES.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

SHORT/LONG TERM...09/REM
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...13/MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 190829
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

COMPACT SHORT WAVE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST WI COMBINING WITH HIGH PWAT TO
PRODUCE SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE
WEST OF CWA. KLNR RECEIVED 0.44 INCHES IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR. SHORT
WAVE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THIS MRNG SO EXPC AT LEAST SCT WEAKER
TSTORMS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LIKELY TO REMAIN
DRY AS STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCD WITH WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL WI...HOWEVER WDLY SCT WEAKER CONVECTION MAY YET
FORM IN THIS AREA. CORFIDI VECTORS INCREASE SLIGHTLY THRU MID-MRNG
BUT WL NEED TO WATCH WEST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL /ESPECIALLY SAUK CO/.

ENHANCED FORCING WITH WAVE SPREADS TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS
MRNG...HWVR LINGERING MUCAPES INCREASES TO OVER 2K J IN WRN CWA THIS
AFTN. WL KEEP SMALL POP LINGERING THIS AFTN FOR POTENTIAL AIR MASS
THUNDER.

EXPC QUIET EVE BEFORE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT. BEST CONVERGENCE REMAINS SOUTH OF AREA...HOWEVER WL BE ON
NORTHERN FRINGE OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY AND SPREAD SCHC FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION GRADIENT SPREADS INTO
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS WELL.

MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO BE NEAR OR ACROSS WI AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. THIS SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST QUICKLY WITH
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING UP QUICKLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INCREASING 850
LOW LEVEL JET DRIVES MCS DEVELOPMENT...NAM AND GFS SHOWING THIS TO
OUR SOUTH WHILE CANADIAN/ECMWF AND HPC TEND TO FAVOR A MORE
NORTHERN FOCUS IN SRN/CENTRAL WI. THE CORE OF THE 850 JET TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND THIS PLACEMENT WOULD TEND TO FAVOR AT
LEAST SOME MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE INTO SRN WI. SKINNY CAPE IN
THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN LOWER LEVEL CIN REALLY
TAKES HOLD. ELEVATED CAPE...ABOVE 600 MILLIBARS REMAINS
IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY OFF THE GFS. BAND OF DECENT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DEPICTED BY MODELS. WILL REALLY HAVE TO
WATCH THE SOUTHWEST CORNER WHERE SURFACE WARM FRONT MAY GET CLOSE
AND BETTER PROXIMITY TO IOWA MODERATE RISK AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES QUITE IMPRESSIVE OVER 9C AND GFS SURFACE BASED LI/S APPROACH
-10.

TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NEARLY STACKED LOW LIFTS FROM ERN NEB TO SW MN. WARM FRONT LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTH AND CWA IS MOSTLY IN VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
850 JET LEANS MORE TOWARDS CWA AND DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION STARTS TO INCREASE A BIT MORE ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO WESTERN CWA. 0-1KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 25 TO
30 KNOTS. 0-6KM SHEAR PEAKS AT NEAR 40 KNOTS AT 18Z THEN DROPS A BIT
BY 00Z. 250 MILLIBAR WIND MAX ROUNDS TROUGH AND RIDES ABOVE THE 850
MB 35 KNOT JET MAX. BUFKIT SHOWING CAPE VALUES REACHING 2500 J/KG
WITH LI/S AROUND -8. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
MONDAY BUT STILL OVER 7C. MORNING CONVECTION LIKELY FOCUSED TO OUR
NORTH CLOSER TO 850 WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT FURTHER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE/850
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE WARM FRONT SETS UP IN THE NORTHERN
CWA PER THE NAM WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE IT FURTHER NORTH.
MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION COULD END UP SUPPRESSING THE BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTH...MORE LIKE THE NAM POSITION. AS SPC POINTED OUT
SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE A POSSIBLE FOCUS AREA FOR STORMS
EXHIBITING TORNADOGENESIS...SO PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND RENEWED CONVECTION
INITIATES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER LOW WILL PLOD ALONG THIS PERIOD AND KEEP PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER GOING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTER TUESDAY NIGTH DRY
SLOT. 00Z CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE ON UPPER LOW POSITION BETWEEN 00Z
GFS AND 12Z ECMWF. THIS WOULD STILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES ALIVE
THURSDAY...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE DEEP THROES OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION
AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
WILL GO DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND INCREASING RIDGING
ALOFT...ALTHOUGH PATTERN LOOKS MORE BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC...NO BIG
BUILDUP OF A UPPER RIDGE. 00Z ECMWF EXTENDING LIGHT QPF INTO THE SW
CWA FRIDAY WITH A WEAK IMPULSE THOUGH FIRST TIME SHOWING THIS AND
MAIN FOCUS LOOKS SOUTHWEST OF HERE SO WILL LEAVE DRY AT THIS TIME.

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING
WL LINGER OVER WRN CWA FOR A TIME THIS MRNG BEFORE THINNING. MVFR
CLOUDS WL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR FEED FROM THE EAST...BUT MAY AFFECT
KMSN FOR A TIME ALONG WITH A FEW TSTORMS. OTRW MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WL AFFECT SRN WI THIS MRNG...THINNING BY AFTN. MAY BE A FEW
TSTORMS THIS AFTN DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY BUT SHOULD BE MUCH
MORE ISOLD. THREAT FOR CONVECTION INCREASES LATE TNGT AND MON MRNG
AS WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET AND CONVERGENCE SPREADS INTO NRN IL/SRN
WI AREA.

.MARINE...LATEST COAST WATCH AND MODIS IMAGERY HAS LAKE MI SFC TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...CONFIRMED BY SRN LK MI BUOY.
STRONG WARM FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS INCREASING THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUE. CONVECTIONS CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR
TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KABQ 112127
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
327 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES OVER COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES...
...SMOKE PLUME BILLOWING NEAR THE WALLOW FIRE AND WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE ABQ AND SAF METRO AREAS THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH # 462 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z FOR
COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SURFACE
ANALYSIS AS OF 21Z CONTINUED TO SHOW BACKED FLOW AT CLAYTON WITH
DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. STRONG SINGLE CELL
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED NEAR MAXWELL HAS SINCE BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR AS IT CROSSES INTO UNION COUNTY. WE EXPECT THIS
CELL TO BE LONG TRACKED AS IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT PERHAPS ALL THE WAY INTO THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD STILL UTILIZE THE REMAINING DAYTIME HEATING AND DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THE
WATCH UNTIL 01Z.

ELSEWHERE...THE OTHER TOP STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE SMOKE PLUME
FROM THE WALLOW AND HORSESHOE TWO FIRES. MODIS AND GOES VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH SHOW PYRO CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE FIRE
IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. SOUTHWEST
FLOW HAS INCREASED ALOFT WITH SMOKE PLUMES EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA.
HYSPLIT 12Z RUN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A SUBSTANTIAL SWATH OF
SMOKE WILL INFILTRATE THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH VSBYS LIKELY
LOWERING INTO THE 2 TO 4SM RANGE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SMOKE IS
EXPECTED ALONG I-40 TO GRANTS AND GALLUP. WE WILL CONTINUE ALL AIR
QUALITY ALERTS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
SHARPENS UP OVER THE WEST COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WEST ACROSS TEXAS. MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR 30 TO 35 KTS OF FLOW WHICH WOULD LIKELY SEND SIGNIFICANT SMOKE
INTO THE ABQ AND SAF METRO AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN
ADDITION...WES EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PLEASE REVIEW THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE PERSISTENTLY DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING TO AID IN SMOKE TRANSPORT FROM
THE WALLOW AND HORSESHOE TWO FIRES INTO THE CENTRAL...WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO NUDGE
INTO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS. THERE SIMPLY REMAINS VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE 7 TO 10 DAY
UPCOMING PERIOD.

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NE QUADRANT OF THE CWFA...
MAINLY OVER ERN COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 02Z/SUN. ACTIVITY
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND COULD PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER HAZARD FOCUSES
ON SMOKE PLUME. IT IS CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CATRON COUNTY. EXPECT THIS TO MIGRATE NORTH AND
EAST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS SUGGEST KABQ/KSAF TAFS WILL BE MOST IMPACTED. BASED ON
HISTORIC EVENTS...WILL COVER WITH 2SM AND 3SM FU RESPECTIVELY FROM
00-04Z/SUN. EVENING CREW WILL MONITOR/ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES
WITH TIME.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. DPORTER

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS OF NM WILL BE A THING OF
THE PAST AS POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY CURRY/ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. CONVECTION IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE
TO MIGRATE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...LIKELY DEPARTING
BY 02Z/SUN. APPEARS WETTING FOOTPRINT IS LIKELY FAIRLY SMALL WITH A
FEW ANVIL LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. THIS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR LOCAL
GRASS FIRES. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT FOR
SUNDAY AS SINGLE DIGIT...POSSIBLY LOWER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPAND
FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THIS WILL ALLOW
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES TO SIGNIFICANTLY DROP INTO SINGLE DIGIT RANGE. A
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN ZONES
AS WELL AS ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HAVE OPTED TO
GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MET GUIDANCE BASED ON LATEST PERFORMANCE...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS AND INTO THE CLINES CORNERS AREA. CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS ACTIVITY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM SANTA ROSA TO
TUCUMCARI...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THREE HOURS MAY BE QUESTIONABLE ATTM.
WILL UPGRADE NMZ107 TO A WARNING BUT LEAVE NMZ108 A WATCH DUE TO A
LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE. DUE TO THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...ONE MAY
FORESEE UPGRADING DUE TO ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH A
HIGH HAINES AND EXCELLENT VENTILATION. THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED
TO MONITOR WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS ONE TO THREE HOURS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER NIGHT OF POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES ARE PROGGED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...EXCEPT THE FAR EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.

WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WAS TEMPTED TO POST A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE HIGHER SPEEDS
AT 700MB. FOR COMPARISION...700MB WINDS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS ON SUN
WHILE ONLY 20KTS PER THE NAM40 FOR MONDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH HAINES COUPLED WITH EXCELLENT VENTILATION.

WINDS WILL START TO RETARD FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE UPR LEVEL
WESTERLIES SUBSIDE COMPLIMENTS OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. IT
APPEARS A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL IMPACT THE ERN PLAINS FOR TUES/
TUES NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME LIMITED RELIEF IN THE HUMIDITY RANGE.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A
VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
START TO RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WHICH MAY INCREASE WINDS...
ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ONCE AGAIN. MAY NEED TO
INCREASE SPEEDS ACCORDINGLY IN THE GRIDS IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT.

DPORTER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 49 88 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 36 82 36 80 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 43 86 42 83 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 38 85 41 84 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 37 82 37 79 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 41 87 42 85 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 42 84 44 85 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 48 90 49 91 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 35 76 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 51 85 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 81 46 79 / 5 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 36 71 41 70 / 5 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 36 76 39 75 / 5 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 41 84 42 83 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 47 80 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 49 92 49 91 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 52 87 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 50 89 52 88 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 59 93 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 61 92 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 94 55 94 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 55 93 56 93 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 52 96 54 95 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 52 93 55 93 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 57 96 57 96 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 56 91 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 55 93 53 91 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 47 90 47 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 87 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 90 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 93 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 59 83 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 52 88 56 87 / 20 0 0 0
RATON........................... 50 92 51 90 / 20 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 48 93 51 91 / 20 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 51 89 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 55 95 59 96 / 20 0 0 0
ROY............................. 54 92 57 91 / 20 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 61 100 63 98 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 60 97 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 59 101 62 100 / 5 0 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 60 99 65 99 / 5 0 5 0
PORTALES........................ 61 100 65 101 / 5 0 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 61 99 66 100 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 63 103 65 103 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 57 98 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 57 90 60 88 / 0 0 0 0

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ108.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107.

17/46

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 060659
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
259 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP PENNSYLVANIA IN A DRY NW FLOW EARLY
THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...THE BLOCK SHOULD BREAK DOWN BY MID
WEEK...ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE TO OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN STATES. A
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE VICINITY
OF COLUMBIA AND SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES...WHERE RAIN FELL LAST
EVENING. OTHERWISE...A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT IN PROGRESS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVR THE REGION.

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ON MONDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONTINUES. H5 RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND
WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AS 850 T WARMS TO +14C TO +16C BY
00Z TUESDAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LGT AND
VARIABLE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVR THE STATE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME RISK OF AN MCS AFFECTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS BULK OF
MDL DATA PICKING UP ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG NORTHERN
PERIPHERY UPPER RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLE SITES ON CENTRAL PA AS EARLY
AS TUES MORNING. THE WARM UP WILL BE ON BY TUESDAY...AS SFC HIGH
SLIPS SOUTH OF PA...ALLOWING WARMER RETURN SW FLOW TO TAKE HOLD.
850 TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE L/M80S...ALONG WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY. LEFT POPS IN THE LOW RANGE...BUT DID
CUT AREA BACK TO EXCLUDE THE SE SOME.

BLOCKING PATTERN OVR THE ATLANTIC BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY
MIDWEEK...ALLOWING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO EXPAND NEWRD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT A TERRAIN INDUCED TSRA WED AFTN.
HOWEVER...WARM TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVR MOST OF
THE AREA. GEFS ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS ARND 20C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS
FROM U80S MT NS AND 90-95F IN THE VALLEYS. DID EDGE TEMPS UP SOME...
MAINLY AT NIGHT.

ANOTHER HOT DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHC OF PM TSRA AS
HGTS FALL AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVR THE GRT LKS.

RELATIVELY LITTLE SPREAD AMONGST MDL GUIDANCE THRU SAT...ALL OF
WHICH INDICATE A DYING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THRU PA
FRIDAY.

WENT WITH A DRY FCST AFTER 00Z SAT.

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO PATCHY MVFR FOG TOWARD 12Z.
KLNS WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE AT TEMPORARY IFR FOG CONDITIONS SINCE
THEY HAD RAIN EARLIER TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. VFR
RETURNS AFT 13Z AREAWIDE WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING
FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PRIMARILY VFR WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
CHANCE OF AN AFTN OR EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/RXR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 020841 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

UPDATED TO ADD TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM

FORECAST EMPHASIS ON THREAT OF CONVECTION INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WI CURRENTLY ON EDGE OF WEAK MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 600MB
FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS. WITH UPSTREAM PWAT
APPROACHING 1 INCH OVER ERN IA...WIDELY SCT -SHRA/-TSRA HAVE BEEN
FORMING OVER NE IA AND MOVING SE AFFECTING SMALL PARTS OF SRN CWA.
FWF WEAKENS THIS MRNG AS LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH 85H JET
REFOCUSES TO THE WEST. EVIDENCE OF THIS ALREADY SHOWING UP AS SCT
CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS NRN IA INTO SRN WI. MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS OVER WI AGAIN LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN.
DESPITE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST...DEEPER
MOISTURE PUSHES INTO SRN WI TODAY WITH PWATS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEAR
1.5 INCHES. UPSTREAM NE SHORT WAVE/MESOSCALE INDUCED EDDY EXPCD TO
MOVE ENE ACROSS IA INTO NRN IL THIS AFTN. THINKING TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST...ONE ASSOCIATED WITH PIVOTING LLJ
AND OTHER WITH THIS FEATURE. SRN WI CAUGHT IN BETWEEN BUT ENOUGH
DIFFERENTIAL VORT ADVEC AND WEAK ENHANCED FORCING FROM RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET...THAT WL NEED TO CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR
T MOST AREAS INTO THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT DIMINISHING TREND FROM
THE WEST AS WARM MID LEVEL CAPPING SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST.

DRIER ELY FLOW SHOULD INITIALLY MINIMIZE PRECIP THREAT IN THE EAST
THIS MRNG. LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW WL ALSO KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET NUMBERS MOST AREAS. CLEAR
MODIS IMAGE FROM WED AFTN SHOWED LAKE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S. LINGERING DRIER AIR AT THE SFC AND LOW LEVEL MIXING
SHOULD KEEP FOG IN CHECK TNGT.

.FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HAVING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA
BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A WARM AND CAPPED AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE
DAY. A LITTLE SPREAD CONTINUES IN HIGH TEMP POTENTIAL...WITH THE GFS
SHOWING 925 MB TEMPS 24-25C AND THE NAM/ECMWF 26-27C. CONTINUED TO
GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE RESULTING IN HIGHS AROUND 90. BIGGEST
CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS THAT MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A BIT OF AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND NEAR THE LAKE. COULD NOT IGNORE
THIS...SO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES THERE.

COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST UPPER DYNAMICS
TO THE NORTH AND FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WELL AFTER DAYTIME HEATING.
EVEN SO...STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. MODELS
SHOWING LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 35 KNOTS POINTING INTO SRN WI ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF
1000-2000 J/K SUGGESTS THAT STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. SPC HIGHLIGHTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

CONSENSUS OF MODELS HAS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. FRONT NOT VERY STRONG THOUGH...AND WARMER AIR WILL
LINGER...WITH 925 MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S SUGGESTING LOW 80S FOR
HIGHS. MODELS KEEP THE FRONT NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH...SO WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE ILLINOIS BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM

OVERALL PICTURE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE AREA...WITH SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKEST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE BY
MONDAY. THE GFS HAS THIS BY TUESDAY. WITH THE WARM FRONT NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NORTH AND UNCERTAINTY WITH MODEL TIMING...LINGERED LOW
POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

.AVIATION...LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE EAST
KEEPING CIGS/VSBYS MOSTLY VFR FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING TAF SITE COULD BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS THRU THE
EVE...ESPECIALLY AT KMSN IN DEEPER MOISTURE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T
DURING SPECIFIC PDS TODAY INTO THIS EVE SO WL CONT TO USE VCNTY
REMARK.

.MARINE...BACKDOOR FRONT SWITCHED WINDS OVER TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WL REMAIN ONSHORE TODAY...GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE
SSE LATE TONIGHT AND FRI. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT WL CAUSE WINDS TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS ON
FRI.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV/07
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK/11

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 310838 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

UPDATED TO ADD TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE SECTIONS

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF MN WL CARRY COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT
ACROSS WI TODAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRONT
KNOCKING ON WRN WI DOOR AT 12Z AND MOVING ACROSS SRN WI THROUGH
MID-AFTN AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WRN ONT. STRONG
THETA-E ADVECTION ONGOING AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES THIS MRNG DUE TO PIVOTING LOW LEVEL JET. BLUE RIVER PROFILER
SHOWING WINDS OF 50KTS IN LOWEST GATES...AROUND 1KM. DEEP CAPPING
INVERSION CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH OVER 500 J OF CIN. NEVER THE
LESS...WEAK ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR MOSAIC OVER FAR EASTERN IA
INTO SW WI. POTENT SHORT WAVE NOW OVER WRN KS/ERN CO AREA EXPCD TO
ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS NRN IA/SRN MN BY LATE MRNG AND
ACROSS SW INTO CENTRAL WI IN THE EARLY AFTN. FORCING FROM THIS
FEATURE WL COINCIDE WITH PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET. CAP IS EXPECTED
TO ERODE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AROUND MID MRNG AND IN THE EARLY AFTN
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HENCE...EXPC SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI AND POSSIBLY EXPAND TO LINEAR MCS OVER SE WI IN THE EARLY AFTN.
DUE TO ENHANCED FORCING FROM NEARBY WAVE...WL CONT LIKELY WORDING IN
THE NORTH AND EAST FOR TODAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO OVER
60KTS EARLY IN THE AFTN WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. 0-3KM VGP
INCREASES TO AROUND 0.3. CAPE EXPCD TO INCREASE TO 2-3K JOULES BY
EARLY AFTN...SO FEW SUPERCELLS LIKELY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ARE MAIN WEATHER THREATS...BUT ISOLD TORNADO IS POSSIBLE DUE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

STRONG MIXING EXPCD TO DEVELOP BY MID MRNG...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 35KTS. LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO DMSH LATER IN THE MRNG
AS CLOUDS THICKEN...SO VERY BRIEF WINDOW FOR WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH
WIND ADVY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. DRY AIR SURGES IN BEHIND
FRONT DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE AND SETTLES OVER THE REGION TNGT
WITH DECREASING WINDS.

.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY JUST TO THE SOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE 70S.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED OVERALL...SO TAPERED BACK POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALSO NOW KEEPING THE NORTHEAST DRY.

SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. MODELS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW...SO KEPT LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE SW CWA. EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP
LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE COOLER...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE
WELL INLAND. A BIT TRICKY WITH THE WARM FRONT GETTING CLOSER. SOME
MODELS TRY TO PUSH THE FAR SW INTO THE LOW 80S...AND WENT WITH THE
HIGHER TEMPS THERE PER THIS POSSIBILITY.

KEPT SOME POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE
CAP WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE LAST. SIMILAR TO THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME FOG OVER THE LAKE AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OVER THE COOLER WATERS. ADDED AREAS OF FOG OVER THE LAKE
FOR THU/THU NIGHT...AND MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY ADD INLAND NEAR THE
LAKE AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION INCREASES.

.FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HAVING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA
BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A WARM AND CAPPED AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE
DAY. A LITTLE SPREAD IN HIGH TEMP POTENTIAL...WITH THE GFS SHOWING
925 MB TEMPS 24-25C AND THE ECMWF A VERY WARM 27-28C. GENERALLY
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE RESULTING IN UPPER 80S. BROUGHT WARM AIR ALL
THE WAY TO THE LAKE WITH WINDS SOUTHERLY...OR JUST WEST OF SOUTH
BY AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT FORCING WEAK
AND MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH. WENT DRY
WITH THE FRONT PASSAGE...AS A WIND SHIFT AND DROP IN TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
LOOK TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT.

.SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM

ECMWF AND CANADIAN IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE GFS KEEPS A FLATTER UPPER LEVEL FLOW THOUGH...RESULTING
IN A FEW DISTURBANCES PUSHING THROUGH. KEPT A FEW ROUNDS OF LOW
POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD PER THE GFS...BUT CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY
OF A DRY WEEKEND IF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN VERIFY.
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...AS EVEN THE GFS
IS SHOWING A VERSION OF RIDGING IN THE REGION BY MONDAY.

.AVIATION...SCT CONVECTION EXPCD TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WI AS SFC OCCLUSION AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACH.
CONVECTION EXPCD TO SPREAD RAPIDLY EWD INTO SE WI IN THE EARLY
AFTN. A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE CRITERIA. VSBY/CIGS WL LOWER
TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR SHOULD ONE OF THESE STORMS MAKE A DIRECT
HIT AT A TAF SITE. DRIER AIR AND VEERING WINDS TO THE WEST WILL END
THE CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY MID AFTN...AND BY 00Z IN THE
SOUTHEAST. VFR TNGT. WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS ONCE SFC MIXING
COMMENCES BY MID-MRNG.

.MARINE...CLEAR MODIS IMAGE FROM MONDAY EARLY AFTN SHOWED SHALLOWER
NEAR SHORE WATERS HAD WARMED INTO THE LOWER 50S...WHILE MID LAKE
TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MID 40S DUE TO OVERTURNING. TIGHTENING PRESS
GRADIENT THIS MORNING AND SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN STRONG MIXING
EARLY THIS MRNG. HENCE WL BUMP UP START OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY SEVERAL
HOURS...AND RUN INTO THE EVE. FEW GUSTS NEAR THE SHORE MAY REACH
30-35 KNOTS LATER THIS MRNG/EARLY AFTN. EXPC SCT CONVECTION TO
AFFECT NEARSHORE WATERS BTWN 18Z AND 22Z. FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO BE SEVERE WITH WINDS EXCEEDING 33 KTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV/07
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK/11

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 231958
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND THE 500MB LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST AS WELL
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT WILL DROP DOWN
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA /CWA/
FROM 05Z TO 08Z. EXPECTING SOME LOWER CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...THEN
THEY SHOULD SCATTER OUT DURING THE TUE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
DAYTIME MIXING. WINDS WILL BE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY A
BIT GUSTY...THEN THEY WILL DIE DOWN A BIT AND VEER NORTHEAST BY 12Z
TUE...THEN VEER EASTERLY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 23MPH TUE AFTERNOON
WITH THE DAYTIME MIXING.

THE 850MB FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRAIL WELL BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT...NOT DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN WI UNTIL TUE AFTERNOON. THE 10C
LINE ACTUALLY STAYS FAIRLY STATIONARY FROM NOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE LAKE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE FRONT DOWN THE LAKE...BUT SOUTHWEST WI SHOULD ONLY DROP
INTO THE LOW 50S.

THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUE AFTERNOON FOR TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL
STAY MUCH COOLER NEAR THE LAKE WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS...IN THE LOW
50S. LATEST MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE /SST/ IMAGE FROM SUN
AFTERNOON SHOWED MID LAKE SST OF AROUND 45F...AND TEMPS ALONG THE
SHORELINE IN THE LOW 50S. THE SOUTH MID LAKE BUOY SHOWED AN AIR
TEMPERATURE OF 47F THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

GFS SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AT 18Z WED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. NAM AND
NEW ECMWF NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOCATION. PWAT VALUES
INCREASE TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ON THURSDAY. LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO...STILL SPREADS INTO
SRN WI LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF 3H JET ALSO SPREADS ACROSS SRN
WI ON WED. PREFER SLOWER ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTION WHICH LINGERS MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION OVER SRN WI WED NGT INTO THU. WL CONTINUE HIGH
POPS FOR FORCING AND HIGH COLUMN RH FOR WED INTO WED NGT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY CARRY OVER INTO
THE EARLY EXTENDED PERIOD. ECMWF SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH MID-WEEK
SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL MS VALLEY REGION...WHILE GFS REMAINS MORE
PROGRESSIVE. GEM MORE IN LINE WITH SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.
GEM/ECMWF SHOW MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FARTHER NORTH IN CENTRAL IL AT
00Z/FRI. HENCE WL EXPAND CHANCE POPS OVER MORE OF SOUTHEAST WI ON
THU AND BEEF UP POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE POPS
SHOW A DECREASING TREND DURING THE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THU.

UPSTREAM KICKER PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THE WAVE EAST OF SRN WI. BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING AND DRIER AIR SETTLES IN THU NGT INTO FRI. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR BUT LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DO HAVE AGREEMENT
ON HAVING WEAK WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPR MS VALLEY REGION ON SAT. ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE POPS.

LARGE DIFFERENCES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SUN AND
MON. GFS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH LONG WAVE TROFFING UPSTEAM OVER PAC NW.
MEANWHILE...ECMWF SHOWING FLATTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE AND COOLER
SOLUTION. WITH AGREEMENT FROM 144HR UKMT...WL TREND TOWARD COOLER
ECMWF AT THIS POINT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW. THIS
INDICATES LESS CREDIBILITY IN GFS 5DAY MEANS...WHICH STILL HAS
WARMER LOOK FOR GTLAKES AND ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCATTERED EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...WITH THE END OF DIURNAL HEATING. THEN A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WI TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY
SHIFT NORTH JUST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN QUICKLY VEER
NORTHEAST BY 12Z TUE MORNING...THEN EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT TONIGHT...THEN AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF GUSTS IS LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
MIXING.

CLOUDS MAY BECOME MVFR ALONG THE FRONT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.MARINE...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIE DOWN QUICKLY AROUND DUSK WITH
THE END OF THE DAYTIME MIXING...THEREFORE WILL KEEP END TIME OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OF 00Z/24.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER WINDS AND WIND SHIFT MAY RUSH DOWN THE LAKE A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THEY WILL ON LAND. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH
AND A LITTLE GUSTY...SHORT-LIVED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THEN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEAST AND BE SUSTAINED
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET
WITH THE FAVORABLE NORTH NORTHEAST FETCH ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF THE
LAKE. WAVES MAY REACH 5 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN NSH ZONES...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A 1000-1005 MB LOW INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND 1020-1025 MB HIGH OVER ONTARIO TO PRODUCE BRISK
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WAVES BUILD INTO 4 TO
6 FOOT RANGE SO THIS LOOKS LIKE A MORE SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
OPPORTUNITY.

.CONFIDENCE...
.TONIGHT...HIGH.
.TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM.
.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MEDIUM.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MEDIUM.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VERY LOW.
&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVY LMZ643>646 TIL 00Z/24.

$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KKEY 201449
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1049 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE KEY WEST MORNING RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION REVEALED A VERY UNSTABLE
VERTICAL PROFILE WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENERGY.
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW UP NEAR 73-74F AT MOST PLATFORMS.
THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED AS SURFACE BREEZES HAVE FRESHENED...RESULTING
IN MORE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING/TURBULENCE AND ASSOCIATED UPWARD FLUXES
OF HEAT/MOISTURE FROM THE SURROUNDING WARM OCEAN. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AVERAGE 80-82F ACCORDING
TO A RECENT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE COURTESY OF THE SHORT-TERM
PREDICTION RESEARCH AND TRANSITION CENTER. DATA FROM THE SAME VENUE
REVEAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 82-84F OVER MOST OF FLORIDA
BAY...HAWK CHANNEL...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THESE VALUES ARE ACTUALLY JUST ABOUT ON TARGET FOR THE THIRD WEEK IN
MAY. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR CUMULUS CONVECTION THIS MORNING
IS DRY AIR ALOFT...AND IN PARTICULAR...DRY AIR WITHIN THE 925-700MB
LAYER. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXCEEDING 10C EXTEND DOWNWARD AS LOW AS
900MB...OR ABOUT 3400FT ABOVE GROUND...NOT TOO FAR ABOVE CUMULUS
CLOUD BASES. AS A CONSEQUENCE...YOUNG CUMULUS CLOUDS AND THEIR
UPDRAFTS WILL FIGHT A MOSTLY LOSING BATTLE. THOSE WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF GROWING INTO SHOWERS MOST PROBABLY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE ZONE. INDEED...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS
EVIDENT AT PRESENT PER DOPPLER RADAR SCANS AND SATELLITE IMAGES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUD LINES IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...DESPITE A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. LOWER-
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER FROM SOUTHEAST AT 10KT TO EAST.
CURRENT FORECASTS HANDLE THE SITUATION WELL...AND NO UPDATES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...
SHORT-LIVED...30 MINUTES OR LESS...MVFR CEILINGS ARE A POSSIBILITY
AT EYW AND MTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE
BRIEF NATURE OF POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS...ONLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
ADVERTISED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 7 KFT WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST TO EAST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1875...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS ONLY 76 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY
RECORD FOR COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MAY
20TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 136 YEARS LATER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 87 78 87 78 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 89 78 89 78 / 10 10 10 10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......FUENTES

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMQT 130907
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
507 AM EDT WED APR 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE PIEDMONT
REGION WITH A TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA THAT IS HEADING EAST AND THIS WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW WILL COME ASHORE AND
MOVE EAST AND WILL FORM A CLOSED 500 MB LOW. THIS LOW WILL HEAD EAST
AND BE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER FOR THE AREA ON FRI
INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SAT MORNING.

NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH TODAY WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG IT.
MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THEN RETURN FRI NIGHT. GFS SHOWS
THE SAME THING AS WELL.

FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND KEPT POPS AS SCATTERED
AS THE NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE WORKS THROUGH. KGRB 00Z SOUNDING IS
PRETTY DRY AND THIS DRY AIR HAS TO BE OVERCOME FIRST BEFORE PCPN
WILL HIT THE GROUND. CHANCE POPS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

CHANGE I MADE TONIGHT WAS TO REMOVE POPS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH
AS FRONT GETS HUNG UP A BIT. LOOKS DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...SO REMOVED DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
MENTION. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LOOK MARGINAL AS WELL AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES GET DOWN TO -6C OR SO. LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE
FROM 0C TO 2C...SO THERE COULD BE A FEW LAKE CLOUDS ONLY TONIGHT.

LOOKS DRY THEN FOR THU THROUGH FRI BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
COMES IN. FOLLOWED THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST. WENT A BIT WARMER
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY AS DRY WEATHER AND LESS CLOUD COVER EARLIER WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP MORE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. STILL IS
TRICKY FOR PCPN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT...BUT LATEST 00Z ECMWF LOOKS
WARMER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DID AND IS MUCH CLOSER TO GFS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WHICH ARE DOWN TO -4C OVER THE WEST HALF SAT.
THINK PCPN WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE WEST HALF ON SAT WITH SOME
RAIN MIXED IN. FOR THE EAST HALF...THERE WILL BE SNOW WITH RAIN
MIXED IN AS WELL. THE RAIN WILL CUT DOWN A BIT ON SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT COULD STILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 0.50 INCH TO 1.00
INCH QPF FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT EVENING OVER THE CWA. WITH A 10 TO 1
SNOW RATIO WITH WET HEAVY SNOW...THIS WOULD BE A 5-10 INCH SNOWFALL
WITH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEFINITELY WORTH WATCHING AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS A
BIT HARDER IN THE HWO PRODUCT NOW. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR NOW FOR
THIS STORM SYSTEM. ECMWF DEPARTS THE SYSTEM A BIT QUICKER SAT NIGHT
AND MOVED ITS EXIT UP QUICKER. WRAPAROUND THEN COMES IN FOR SUN
MORNING AND DEPARTS QUICKLY FOR SUN AFTERNOON.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO WARM
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FOR HIGHS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

PER KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE...LLWS IS ONGOING (35KT AT 500FT AGL). IT
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT AS
LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY. -SHRA ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST BEHIND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN NE MN...AND SCT -SHRA/SPRINKLES SHOULD
ARRIVE AT KCMX AFTER SUNRISE AND AT KSAW LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL VFR WHERE PCPN IS OCCURRING...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BY THE TIME PCPN AREA
REACHES KCMX/KSAW. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT EARLY AFTN AT KCMX AND
MID/LATE AFTN AT KSAW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THRU THE
END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LOWER
MVFR CIGS WELL TO THE NW IN MANITOBA/FAR NRN ONTARIO. DEVELOPING
NRLY FLOW TONIGHT MAY ALLOW THESE CLOUDS TO MAKE A RUN S INTO UPPER
MI AT SOME POINT DURING THE NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

A FEW STRONGER GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE ERN LAKE AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...THEN INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING UP TO 30KTS
AS A SURGE OF COLDER AIR DROPS S FROM CANADA. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER ONTARIO ON THURSDAY...EXPECT A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE ACROSS THE
LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT...EXPECT GALES TO AT LEAST
35KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALES ON SAT NIGHT WITH THE LOW
MOVING TOWARDS JAMES BAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY /FOR THE 4AM ISSUANCE/...

DRY WEATHER YESTERDAY AND LIMITED REMAINING SNOW PACK HAS CAUSED
MOST RIVERS TO LEVEL OFF OR GRADUALLY FALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
MODIS SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS SNOW REMAINING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE PORKIES...KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND THE HURON MOUNTAINS. THIS
LINGERING SNOW PACK...COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...HAS CAUSED THE TRAP ROCK RIVER TO RISE AGAIN AND NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS. CURRENTLY TRENDS HAVE IT REACHING THAT STAGE THIS
MORNING...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE. EXPECT THE
REST OF THE RIVERS WILL GRADUALLY FALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW THIS WEEKEND...WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL RISES IN THE AREA RIVERS. RESIDENTS LIVING
ALONG RIVERS IN UPPER MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RISING WATERS
AND EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVERBANKS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KLUB 112015
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
315 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

.SHORT TERM...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS 12Z UPA ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE REGION IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEEP...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
TRYING TO DRIFT IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
ALSO HELP COOL THINGS DOWN ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MIN
TEMPS TOMORROW MORNING.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RAPIDLY SWING TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE GLIDES OVER THE REGION. THIS QUICK
TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE LEE SURFACE
TROF TO REESTABLISH A POSITION ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE.
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE TROF AND THE RESULTANT INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...SPEEDS SHOULD MAX OUT BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25
TO 30 MPH. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE A BIT WARMER THANKS TO
THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND CONTINUED AMPLE
INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY.

JORDAN

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS PRECIP CHANCES
REMAIN SLIM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

UA RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...AS A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL ENSUE BY THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE DRYLINE BEING SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. HENCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DROP
BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS /AOA 20 PERCENT
ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/ BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION. IF THE FRONT
BEHAVES AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM SOLUTION...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST FOR A LIMITED PERIOD OF TIME AS THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL OTHER SOLUTIONS ON THE
OTHER-HAND STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE/FAR NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH BY THU
MORNING AS THE DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE. THUS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE ELEVATED. FURTHERMORE...THE NAM SOLUTION HINTS AT PRECIP
ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS THE FAR NERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM AS THE NAM IS THE
ONLY SOLUTION SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY.

THE NEXT IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE/CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY WITH FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND
SOUNDINGS HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS EARLY THU MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WITH LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
NERN ZONES. SYNOPTIC LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT AND THUS
INCREASING CLOUDS APPEARS MORE PROBABLE ATTM. BY THE AFTERNOON...THE
DRYLINE WILL SURGE EASTWARD AND BE SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS...WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS APPEAR RATHER BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY /AOA 30 KTS PER MOS
GUIDANCE/ AND THUS DUE TO RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY...CRITICALLY DRY
FUELS AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS...WILL ONCE AGAIN CREATE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ENSUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE EVOLVES
INTO A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THUS
INDUCE A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THEREAFTER...SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO A SFC HIGH EAST OF THE CWA. NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FRI THROUGH SUN AS THE TRANSPORT OF DEEP GULF
MOISTURE COMMENCES ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. PER THE ECMWF AND GFS...AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...THUS DRIVING DOWN A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. BEST PRECIP IS DEPICTED
EAST OF THE REGION NEAREST THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOES 3.9 MICRON AND MODIS/POES 3.7 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ONLY
ONE FIRE START SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE KENT/SCURRY COUNTY
LINE. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THEY ARE NOT SHOWING ANY LARGE FLARE-UPS ON
THE SWENSON/STONEWALL AND KING COUNTY FIRE. DECREASING WIND SPEEDS
WILL ALSO HELP WITH ANY CONTINUED FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MARGINAL TOMORROW FOR MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT SOUTH WIND OF
15 TO 25 MPH AND RH VALUES BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN
AT LEAST AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER OVER THE REGION. WILL HOLD ONTO
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF SHIFTS TO MAKE SURE THE
FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE COMPUTER MODELS FOR TOMORROW.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES EAST NORTH OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS. THE DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WILL INDUCE A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AND PROMOTE BREEZY WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. COMPUTER MODELS STRUGGLE WITH A COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS STALL THE FRONT
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BEFORE RETREATING IT NORTH BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ONE SOLUTION HOWEVER DRIVES THE FROPA
ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD
LESSEN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE A POINT
IN TIME WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 10 PERCENT
/EXCEPT AOA 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/. WITH
SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS COMBINED WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AND
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST. THE BEST DAY IN REGARDS TO WIND SPEEDS APPEARS TO BE ON
THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH NEAREST THE REGION. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT CWA-WIDE...WITH 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS RANGING
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH /VERSUS 15 TO 20 MPH ON WED/.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 38 78 41 77 39 / 0 0 0 10 10
TULIA 36 80 43 78 41 / 0 0 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 39 80 44 82 44 / 0 0 0 10 10
LEVELLAND 39 80 46 84 46 / 0 0 0 10 10
LUBBOCK 44 81 48 85 47 / 0 0 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 38 80 46 88 48 / 0 0 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 38 80 46 88 47 / 0 0 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 44 82 48 85 50 / 0 0 10 10 10
SPUR 44 82 48 86 50 / 0 0 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 44 83 49 87 52 / 0 0 10 10 10

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.

14/29

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KGGW 102058
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
258 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2011

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS SPILLING OVER INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THEREFORE... ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. DUE
TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SNOW MELT ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
FROM OVERFLOWING RIVERS ALSO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY VALLEY FOG
DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN LOW LYING AREAS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
IS ANTICIPATED TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY JOIN IN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ALONG WITH SLIGHT UPSLOPE TO FORM A FEW
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. BIG THING WORKING AGAINST THESE THUNDERSTORMS
IS A LACK OF A THICK LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY NOT BE
ABLE TO FIRM UP DURING THE DAY TIME. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS INITIALLY
FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER... AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AFTER 6PM IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH VERTICAL
CONVECTION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND CREATE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

TUESDAY... WITH THE COLD FRONTS PASSAGE... TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS.
SEMI-STABLE CONDITIONS AND A NEWLY FORMING WEAK RIDGE WILL HELP
TO KEEP THIS DAY DRY AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WARMING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS SNOW PACK ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
AND MODIS IMAGERY WHICH IS FAR MORE EXTENSIVE THAN NOHRSC MODELS
SHOW IS ANTICIPATED TO ENCOURAGE A RAPID SNOW MELT IN THE REGION
DURING THESE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHOULD INCUR FURTHER FLOODING
CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GAH

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS SOME ISSUES WITH TEMPERATURES AS THE
MODEL SPECTRUM OF TEMPERATURES IS VERY WIDE FROM THE GFS TO THE EC
WHICH ARE ON OPPOSITE ENDS. ALSO THE TIMING OF FEATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD ARE VERY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

CONFIDENCE IS FAIR GOOD ON THURSDAY FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE
REGION AS A FRONT CROSS THE AREA. THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST AT
BRINGING THE FEATURE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND EC IS SLOWER. KEPT
WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION. HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE TIMING
WILL BE THE LOWER CONFIDENCE VALUE.

AFTER THAT CLIMO WAS THE BEST CALL WITH THE MODELS ALL OVER THE
BOARD FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ONLY PROBLEM NOTICED WITH THAT IS
PROBABLY IN TEMPERATURES WHERE A WARM UP IS SHOWN WITH MORE CLIMO
VALUES. FOR NOW WITH THE WIDE RANGE OF FORECAST OPTIONS IT/S THE
BEST CALL. PROTON

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG VALLEYS
AND LOW LYING REGIONS TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD BRING
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR OR NEAR IFR BRIEFLY BEFORE SUNUP. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
THEN BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND TAPER OFF TO 5 TO 10 KTS. GAH

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEK WHICH WILL
ACCELERATE THE SNOW MELT.

CONSEQUENTLY... THE SPRING THAWING AND RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AND PROBABLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEK. IT WILL BE AT LEAST
2 WEEKS BEFORE FLOOD ISSUES BEGIN TO SUBSIDE PERMANENTLY...THOUGH
RIVER LEVELS MAY FLUCTUATE SOME.

A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY AS BIG MUDDY CREEK
AND LAKE CREEK WERE RUNNING OUT OF THEIR BANKS CAUSING SOME NEARBY
ROADS TO BE INUNDATED.

THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN PHILLIPS AND MUCH
OF VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... FOR FLOODING ALONG THE
FOLLOWING STREAMS... BRAZIL CREEK... BUFFALO CREEK... WILLOW
CREEK... BEAVER CREEK AND LARB CREEK... AS WELL AS ALONG THE MILK
RIVER. ANTELOPE CREEK ALSO CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH AND FLOODING MAY
OCCUR BY EARLY THIS WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RISE.

A MAIN STEM FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TAMPICO...
GLASGOW... SACO ... AND NASHUA FORECAST POINTS ON THE MILK RIVER.
TAMPICO IS EXPECTED TO REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
GLASGOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. NASHUA REACHED FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE INCREASES AND MINOR FLOODING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

CREEKS WERE RUNNING HIGH IN NORTHERN MCCONE AND RICHLAND COUNTIES
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO BEGINNING TO OCCUR IN ROOSEVELT COUNTY WITH
ICE STILL IMPACTING FLOWS ON STREAMS ACROSS THE COUNTY.

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 090830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...COMING SHORTLY...

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
TO HIGH.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY LINGER BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST.

WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING AREA
INTO THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. BRISK SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING AND AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR HIGHS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 19C
925MB TEMPERATURES ON THE GFS...WITH LOWER 20S ON THE
NAM...SUPPORTED THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S SHOULD ALSO SHIFT INTO THE AREA...MAKING FOR A SOMEWHAT
HUMID DAY.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
NAM AND GFS INDICATED A DECENT CAP IN PLACE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
PEAK HEATING AND INCREASING 850MB LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP WEAKEN
CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING...AND SHOULD
COMBINE WITH WEAKENING CAP TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE COLD FRONT CATCHES UP
TO THE EASTWARD MOVING PRE FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE. STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH MEAN LAYER CAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...STRONG
DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 70 KNOTS...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KNOTS...SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC DAY 2
MODERATE RISK WITH HATCHED AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE LOOKS
GOOD...AND MAY BE UPGRADED TO HIGH RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ALL IN
ALL...A POTENTIAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. STAY TUNED...

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MONDAY...AS SECONDARY VORTICITY
MAXIMUM SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALSO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION. DRIER AIR THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE. QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE
WEEK.

.AVIATION...MOIST ELY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS
OR LWR FOR MUCH OF THE PD. MODEL GUIDANCE TRYING TO BUMP UP CIGS
TO VFR THIS AFTN...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ON SE
WINDS...COULD SEE CIGS REMAINING LWR UNTIL STRONG WMFNT MOVES THRU
LATER TNGT AND WNDS VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH. FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF
STRATUS NORTH OF WMFNT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MS VLY. ALSO
CONCERN FOR DENSE ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPING IN EAST DUE TO
INCREASING WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER COOLER LAKE MI WATERS. WL
LIKELY REMAIN MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH 12Z TAFS.

.MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY FROM SEVERAL DAYS REVEALED SEA SURFACE
TEMPS AROUND 3.5C. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO A MORE SE
DIRECTION...DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS LAKE MI. HENCE WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF ADVECTION FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE TODAY...POSSIBLY TURNING DENSE TNGT AS SFC
DEWPTS APPROACH 50. LOW LEVEL INVERSION WL PREVENT STRONGER E WNDS
FROM MIXING TO LAKE SFC UNTIL WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND SUN MRNG. BETTER MIXING OVER THE SHORE AREAS MAY ALLOW
WIND GUSTS TO REACH 25 KTS ON SUN AND SUN EVE. TIGHTENING PRES
GRAD AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH WL LIKELY RESULT IN
SMALL CRAFT ADVY CONDITIONS SUN NGT INTO MON.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...08/WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...11/MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMPX 290922
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
422 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 1-5 DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
INCREASED POPS ON THURSDAY AND PROBABLY COULD HAVE GONE A LITTLE
HIGHER TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH FOR A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IN MANY
LOCATIONS. SLOW WARMING TREND THIS WEEK ON TRACK...LATEST 29.00Z
GUIDANCE MIGHT BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER WITH THE TEMPERATURES IN
THE WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY
FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DISCUSSIONS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
ARE PROBABLY SOUNDING A LITTLE LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT COOL AND DRY AIR MASS OVERHEAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT SNOW ONCE AGAIN BLOSSOMED EARLY THIS
MORNING ON THE FRINGE OF THE HIGH IN AREAS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST...AIDED BY 800-600MB CONVERGENCE AND A LITTLE KICK FROM
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
TOO DRY TO SEE SNOW THIS MORNING...AT MOST FLURRIES IN FAR
SOUTHWEST MN...BUT PORTIONS OF MN MIGHT ACTUALLY SEE A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER TODAY. THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS AIR MASS HAS BEEN
IMPRESSIVE...THE DAILY 24-HR TEMPERATURE CHANGE HAS LOOKED
REMARKABLY SIMILAR OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND WITH TIME. THE KMPX SOUNDINGS TAKEN HERE IN
CHANHASSEN SINCE FRIDAY EVENING HAVE REFLECTED NEARLY IDENTICAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES:
0.10...0.11...0.12...0.12...0.12...0.12...0.10. THE PATTERN BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AS 250MB JET JUST TO OUR SOUTH BUCKLES
AND WEST COASTING RIDGING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED...SHOULD HELP TO
ADVECT SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO MN AND WI. TEMPERATURES LOOK CLOSE
TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH WARMTH AND RIDGING TO OUR WEST...SURFACE
TROUGH BECOMES MORE DEFINED AND SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE FIRST
PUSH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN WESTERN MN. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER ENOUGH FOR UPPER 30S AND 40S BY THE
TIME THE PRECIPITATION EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS MN AND WI. MOST OF
THE LIQUID...LIKELY LESS THAN A TENTH OF INCH...APPEARS TO FALL AS
RAIN. EVEN WHEN THICKNESS VALUES FALL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CRYSTALS
BELOW 850-925MB THURSDAY EVENING...CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE FROM FALLING TOO QUICKLY AND THE BEST
CHANCE OF A RETURN TO SNOW WOULD BE BETWEEN 06-12Z FRIDAY. SEE
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH THIS EVENT. 29.00Z GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...ONE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THE OTHER FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...HARD TO
CLEAR THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION BEFORE FRIDAY EVENING.

EXTENDED...THE 28.12Z GUIDANCE SHOWED MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN TERMS OF TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE 29.00Z RUNS ARE ACTUALLY STILL IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE LOW EJECTING
OUT IN THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THAT IS WHERE THE
SIMILARITIES END...BECAUSE THERE ARE STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. NOT THAT THE DETAILS REALLY MEAN MUCH AT
THIS POINT...BUT THE 29.00Z GFS DEVELOPS A POTENT LOW AND TRACKS
IT ACROSS IA AND SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND GRADUALLY LOSES PACE WITH THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFS. ALSO ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE LACK OF RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WHEN LOOKING AT DP/DT OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS. ALL WE CAN SAY FOR CERTAIN IS THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG
SPRING CYCLONE AFFECTING THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST...WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER INTO IOWA DURING THE
PERIOD. LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND EXCELLENT
FLYING CONDITIONS OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
EXCEPTION...WHERE CLOUDS AND CEILING HEIGHTS COULD LOWER UNDER 5000
FEET AGL...IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MN NEAR KRWF TAF SITE.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10
THOUSAND FEET AGL.

.MSP...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS.

.HYDROLOGY...

MODIS SATELLITE PASSES OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SHOW LITTLE SNOW
COVER IN SOUTHERN MN...SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER. THE EXCEPTION
IS IN THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NEW ULM TO
PIPESTONE...WHERE THE EFFECT OF LAST WEEKS SNOWFALL IS STILL
QUITE EVIDENT. LATEST NOHRSC 48-HR CHANGE IN SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
SHOWS BETWEEN A TRACE AND 0.20 INCH LOSS SINCE SATURDAY ACROSS ALL
OF MN AND WI...DESPITE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES - THE LATE
MARCH SUNSHINE IS PLAYING A ROLE IN THIS SLOW MELT. STILL EXPECT
AREAS NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY TO SEE THE MELT
ACCELERATE FOR THE SECOND OF THIS WEEK GIVEN THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY WILL HAVE NO AFFECT ON
THE CURRENT FLOODING OR POTENTIAL SECOND CREST IN APRIL. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

CLF/MPG

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 270842
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
442 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE...COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO WILL RIDGE SOUTHEAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY EARLY TODAY
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PASS
SOUTH OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE IMPORTANT COASTAL STORM IS
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NORTHERN EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOC
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE GRAZING SOUTHERN PA. MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME LIGHT ACCUMS OF ARND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
OVR SOMERSET CO SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE. WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF
OROGRAPHIC FORCING...AREAS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE NO ACCUM. 3KM HRRR INDICATES ANY SNOW
ACROSS THE S TIER WILL END BY ARND 9 AM.

SATL DERIVED PWATS SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR MASS OVR THE GRT
LKS POISED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA LATER TODAY...AS SHORTWAVE
EXITS THE E COAST. THUS...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TO WORK SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH SUNNY SKIES EVEN ACROSS
THE SOUTH BY AFTN.

DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS BTWN -8C AND -12C WILL SUPPORT
AFTN MAXES FROM JUST THE U20S NW MTNS TO THE L/M 40S ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANOTHER VERY CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH MINS ARND
15F BLW NORMAL. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE CLEAR
SKIES...LGT WINDS AND DRY AIR TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SNOW
COVERED N MTNS /MODIS BAND 7 IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENT OF SNOW COVER
BEAUTIFULLY/...TO ARND 20F IN THE SOUTH.

LITTLE CHANGE FOR MONDAY...OTHER THAN A SUBTLE BACKING OF THE BLYR
FLOW...WHICH COULD DRAW A BIT OF LAKE EFFECT STRATO CU INTO THE NW
MTNS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH NW WINDS A BIT
GUSTIER THAN TODAY...WHICH COULD HAVE FIRE WX IMPLICATIONS OVR THE
SOUTH. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS REMAIN IN THE -8C TO -12C RANGE...SO
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKING
DOWN NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN RIDING ACROSS THE NATION. A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE FIRST SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH SREF AND GEFS DATA SUGGEST A
SFC LOW TRACK WELL SOUTH OF PA WITH A POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX ON
WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL LIKELY CARVE OUT A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL OF AN EAST
COAST STORM. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF SPREAD AMONGST MDLS AND
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AMT OF PHASING ALONG THE E COAST.
THUS...HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY ARND 30 PCT LATE NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...READINGS LIKELY
TO REMAIN A BIT BLW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
OVERNIGHT THRU SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL SKIRT THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF
PA AS THIS STORM SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF PA...WITH ANY PRECIP
FALLING IN EXTREME SOUTHERN PA BETWEEN 09-12Z. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY. BY 15Z VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL RTES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT THRU WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED...EXCEPT POSS OCNL MVFR AT KBFD.
THU...MVFR POSS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 250809
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
309 AM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD PERTAIN TO SMALL LAKE EFFECT THREAT.
SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT LESS THAN TWO TENTHS INCH HOWEVER SOME
INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIES TO THE NORTH AS DEPICTED
BY 00Z GRB SOUNDING. GRB RADAR SHOWING WEAK CIRCULATION OVER LAKE
MI NE OF KMTW PRODUCING SCT DBZ OVER 20. BOTH NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW 1000-850MB FLOW VEERING ONSHORE THIS MRNG AND
INCREASING SLIGHTLY. MODIS SEA SFC TEMP IMAGE FROM THU EVE HAS LAKE
TEMP AROUND 2-3C. HENCE DELTA-T INCREASES TO 13-15 DEGREES LATER
THIS MRNG AS BRIEF SURGE OF HIGHER RH SLIDES SWWD INTO SE WI. LAKE
INDUCED CAPE INCREASES TO 150J. LOW LEVELS DRY OUT A BIT THIS AFTN
AND EVE...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE. HENCE WL BUMP UP
TO LOW POPS ALONG LAKESHORE FOR TODAY...WITH LINGERING FLURRIES FOR
TNGT.

EXPC MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO LINGER THIS MRNG IN SOUTH AS STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM UPPER JET PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTN SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN THESE CLOUDS. CAN NOT GO
TOO LOW WITH TNGTS TEMPS DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF LAKE CLOUDS SPREADING
WWD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AN OVERALL DRY COLUMN. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A BIT BETTER MOISTURE 3-4K FEET WHILE THE GFS IS LESS MOIST
AT THAT LAYER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
PERSISTENT ENE FLOW. 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SE FROM
U.P. TO LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING THOUGH INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE
LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL ESPECIALLY WITH DRY COLUMN. DELTA T AND
TRAJECTORIES BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. DELTA T REACHES 15-16C WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
5-6K FEET. THE NAM AND GFS ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR SHOWING LIGHT QPF
MOVING ONSHORE AND AFFECTING THE LAKESHORE AREAS 6Z-18Z SUNDAY. WILL
PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE LAKESIDE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS GO DRY AFTER
18Z SUNDAY THOUGH NAM SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.

MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN LOOSENING THE
GRIP OF WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING APPROACHING.
GFS BREAKS DOWN THIS RIDGE PRETTY QUICK AND SHOOTS A VORT INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH MAIN ENERGY ALSO QUICKER TO APPROACH. VORT
PATTERN LOOKS MORE REASONABLE ON THE ECMWF/CANADIAN KEEPING THINGS
BACK IN THE PLAINS A BIT LONGER.

TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS WITH THE ECMWF A BIT
SLOWER AND PREFERRED WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. 00Z ECMWF HAS AMPLIFIED
THIS FEATURE AND ACTUALLY HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE GFS. MEANWHILE THE CANADIAN SOLUTION HAS THE HIGH DOMINATING
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH NO PRECIP. WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SCALING BACK ON THE CONSALL POPS WHICH
HAD POPS CWA WIDE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO BE DOMINANT WITH DECENT CONSENSUS AMONGST THE
GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN. WILL GO WITH THE DRY AND CLEANER QPF LOOK OF
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN.

.AVIATION...MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD
THIN LATER TODAY AND THIS EVE. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAY AFFECT
ERN TAF SITES LATER THIS MRNG DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. LAYER RH THINS AGAIN THIS
AFTN AND EVE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY BUT INCREASES AGAIN
LATER TNGT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KHUN 190836
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
335 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY...
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE HUN CWFA THIS
MORNING...STRETCHING ROUGHLY ALONG THE TN RIVER. REGIONAL MODIS/GOES
SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS DO NOT INDICATE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
IMMEDIATELY AROUND THE FRONT...BUT THAT CHANGES NORTH OF I-40. MOST
PCPN IS CONFINED EVEN FURTHER N ACROSS KY...THOUGH A FEW REMOTE SHRA
HAVE BEEN HANGING AROUND IN NRN GA/SERN TN.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE HUN CWFA TODAY...
RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT NOT TERRIBLY WET DAY. DESPITE
DECENT MOISTURE /PWATS ARND 1 INCH/...SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE WILL BE LACKING. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
SHRA...SO HAVE MAINTAINED 15-20 POPS AREAWIDE...BUT EXPECT TODAY TO
BE FAR FROM A WASHOUT. AND DESPITE THE BROAD POSTFRONTAL NORTHERLY
FLOW...LITTLE IF ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS /ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY/.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NWD TONIGHT AS SWLY FLOW RESUMES ALOFT...
BUT AGAIN NEGLIGIBLE LIFT EXISTS...LEADING TO A MOSTLY DRY BUT MILD
FCST.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP...SUCH AS IT WILL BE...IS
LIKELY TO COME SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UPPER FORCING
AND INCREASED LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEDGE/BACKDOOR
FRONT. FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...AND MOS POPS ARE STILL
BELOW 10 PCT...SO WILL STICK WITH ONLY 20 POPS ATTM. THE WEDGE FRONT
MAY INTRODUCE A FAIRLY LARGE W-TO-E TEMP GRADIENT AS STRONG SWLY
FLOW DEVELOPS FOR NW AL...AND E/SE FLOW IMPINGES FURTHER EAST. FOR
NOW HAVE STUCK WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 WEST...NEAR 70 EAST...BUT THIS MAY
BE TOO SUBTLE.

RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...PLACING THE ENTIRE
REGION UNDER ROBUST S/SW FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES. MILD OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND HIGHS MONDAY MAY RIVAL THOSE SEEN ON
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID-WEEK...WHEN THE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING ASHORE ALONG THE W COAST ERODES THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY
TO THE N...SO THE THREATS FOR HVY RAIN AND/OR SEVERE WX DO NOT LOOK
HIGH ATTM. BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING CONSENSUS ON A CHANCE
OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE WED-THURS TIMEFRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND NW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED...RESULTING IN COOLER IF NOT COLDER CONDITIONS. WHILE
PREFRONTAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...POSTFRONTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...UNCHANGED FROM 06Z...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...ARRIVING JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR NOW.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 75 56 76 55 79 / 20 10 20 10 10
SHOALS 74 54 78 56 80 / 20 10 20 10 10
VINEMONT 72 54 72 53 76 / 20 10 20 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 71 52 72 53 75 / 20 10 20 10 10
ALBERTVILLE 73 54 73 52 77 / 20 10 20 10 10
FORT PAYNE 73 54 71 50 76 / 20 10 20 10 10
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$

DISCUSSION...BCC
AVIATION...12

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 130803
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
403 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
TWO COMPACT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE BRINGS THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

WELCOME TO DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME.

WV STLT LOOP SHOWS COMPACT CYC CIRCULATION MOVG INTO WESTERN NY
EARLY THIS MORNING..WITH WEAK SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NEWD THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VLY STRADDLING THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW HAS PUSHED EWD ACRS PA WITH LLVL CAA AND
RELATIVELY MOIST OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORY SPREADING BKN-OVC STRATOCU
SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VLY REGION. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SOME LGT -SHSN SKIRTING THE NRN TIER COUNTIES ON THE SRN FRINGE OF
THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME PATCHY -FZDZ
IS PSBL GIVEN LACK OF ICE INTRODUCTION ALOFT AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS
BTWN -6 TO -8C.

THE NW MTNS WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO AN OCNL BRIEF -SHSN TDY AS
SECONDARY COLD FNT/SFC TROUGH DROPS SWD FM SRN ONTARIO. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCT AT BEST AS THE BEST LL CAA AND OVER-LAKE
FLOW IS COUNTERED BY S/W RIDGING ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNG
H5 SYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MUCH OF LAKE ERIE IS FROZEN PER
HI RES MODIS STLT IMAGE FROM 3/8. THE PERSISTENT LL CAA AND DENSE
STRATOCU CVRG WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 30S OVR THE WESTERN
HIGHLANDS AND NRN MTNS..WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGS BLW SEASONAL AVGS.
MEANWHILE GUSTY WNWLY DOWNSLOPE SHOULD AFFORD A FEW MORE BREAKS IN
CLOUDS E OF THE MTNS ESP INTO THE LWR SUSQ VLY WHERE AFTN READINGS
WILL CLIMB TO WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO /MID 40S CENTRAL MTNS TO
NEAR 50F IN THE SE/.

THE LAST IN WHAT HAS BEEN A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULES EMBEDDED WITHIN
A LARGER SCALE CYC FLOW OVR THE GRT LKS REGION WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PD. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A DECENT AMT
OF CLOUDS OVER THE N/W COUNTIES..BEFORE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN UPSTREAM LEADS TO MORE SUNSHINE
TO START THE WORK WEEK.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ON
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A TAD ON THE COOL SIDE BUT STILL VERY
SEASONABLE FOR MID MARCH.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FAIRLY ZONAL BUT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE
CONUS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW
WILL DOMINATE CHANCES FOR PCPN...OPPOSED TO MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROFFING/SURFACE PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK.

A LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...PROVIDING ESSENTIALLY NIL POPS AND
DECREASING CLOUDS.

GUIDANCE FOLLOWS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH ASSCD WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SFC FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TUESDAY INTO
THROUGH PA AND INTO NEW ENG BY 12Z THURSDAY. BOTH THE EC AND NOW
THE GFS SPREAD A CHILLY RAIN OF 1 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH/12 HR
INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LEFTOVER DRY...AND SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS COULD GREATLY IMPACT FCST
TEMPS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD /BY 10F OR MORE/ SHOULD THE PRECIP
SHIELD SPREAD FURTHER NORTH /PER THE EC AND SVRL WETTER GEFS
MEMBERS/ - AND COOL TO THE CHILLY WET BULB TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

A COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS TRICKY/SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE...AND
EMBEDDED IN THE NRN STREAM WILL...TO PASS AND BE EAST OF PA BY
EARLY THURSDAY...RETURNING FAIR WX TO THE AREA INTO AT LEAST EARLY
FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

TEMPS COULD AVERAGE 10-12F ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR A TASTE OF SPRING.

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TWO COMPACT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD FROM
THE GRT LKS INTO THE NE STATES THIS PD. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTN. MOIST CYC WNWLY
FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO BFD/JST WITH AN OCNL -SHSN AT BFD.
MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER SHALLOW MSTR OVR THE MTNS THUS SOME
PATCHY FZDZ WILL BE PSBL EARLY THIS MRNG BUT NOT WORTH MENTION IN
06Z TAFS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROB FOR IFR CIGS INVOF BFD. MAINLY
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL E/SE OF THE MTNS WITH SCT-BKN CIGS IN THE
035-060 RANGE. CANT RULE OUT A TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT AOO/UNV/IPT. WNW
SFC WNDS 8-15KTS GUSTING BTWN 20-25KTS. HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY WITH RETURN TO VFR FLYING THRU TUE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...CHC OF RAIN/LOW CIGS LATE...MAINLY SOUTH.
WED...CHC OF RAIN/LOW CIGS.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

.HYDROLOGY...
SUNBURY IS NOW RIGHT AT FS/24FT AND WILL CANCEL ONCE THE NEXT OB
COMES IN BLW FS. REMAINING MAIN STEM PTS STILL IN FLOOD ARE
FORECAST TO FALL BLW FS THIS AFTN...WITH MARIETTA THE LAST PT
FALLING BLW FS BY LATE TONIGHT.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
HYDROLOGY...STEINBUGL

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS64 KHGX 220306
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
906 PM CST MON FEB 21 2011

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.

.DISCUSSION...
MODIS SST COMPOSITE SHOWS THE COOLER SHELF WATERS IN THE GULF
JUST OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THESE
COOLER WATERS WITH A MOIST/WARM AIRMASS RIDING OVER IT. SEA FOG
SEEMS TO BE IMPACTING AREAS FROM GAL IS...GAL BAY AND AREAS
EASTWARD ALONG THE TX/LA GULF COAST. KGLS AND KLBX CONTINUE TO
SHOW LOWER VSBY AND LOW CLOUD DECKS BUT NO DENSE FOG. WILL STILL
KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS BUT NOT EXPECTING
DENSE FOG INLAND.

THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SE TX. AT
03Z...FRONT WAS BASICALLY LOCATED FROM KCLL TO KOCH. FRONT HAS
BEEN SLOWING DOWN IN SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. THE 12Z WRF AND THE
00Z/22 NAM RUN SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE FRONTAL
PUSH. BOTH SHOW THE FRONT GETTING TO KIAH BY 11-12Z AND IT BARELY
REACHING KHOU/KSGR BY 15Z. FRONT LOOS TO STALL FROM A LIBERTY TO
HOUSTON TO VICTORIA LINE TUE MORNING. MAIN UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS INCREASE MIN
TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF WHERE THE FRONT STALLS. EVEN
THEN... MIN TEMPS MAY STILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAT
WHAT COULD OCCUR. FRONT PUSHES NORTH TOMORROW WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOW 70S DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. FORECAST PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CST MON FEB 21 2011/

UPDATE...
UPDATED MARINE HAZARD GRIDS.

DISCUSSION...
SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND VISIBILITY IS DOWN TO A HALF MILE AT
JAMAICA BEACH...SCHOLES FIELD IS AT 3 MILES AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOW
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3 AND 5 MILES. FEEL VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP SO WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVIOSRY FOR GALVESTON BAY AND
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. NEW MARINE ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST MON FEB 21 2011/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED NEAR PSX AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION BENEATH A STRONG CAP...BUT FEEL WITH THE
FRONT IN THE AREA...SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN COULD GET SQUEEZED OUT
OVERNIGHT. SEA FOG ALONG THE COAST WILL WORK INLAND AND EXPECT
CIGS/VSBY TO BE IMPACTED AT GLS/LBX AND MAYBE AS FAR INLAND AS
HOU. LOW CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST MON FEB 21 2011/

DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY TOWARD SE
TX THIS AFTN WITH ITS ARRIVAL INTO OUR NRN BORDERS LATER TONIGHT.
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH STALLING THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THIS LOCATION BEFORE IT MOVES BACK NORTH LATE TUES. HOWEVER WHILE
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...THE MAIN
ISSUE LOOKS TO BE THE WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE RETURN/DEV-
ELOPMENT OF FOG/SEA FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA FOR
TONIGHT... THEN LASTING INTO EARLY TUES. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
KEEP A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST THROUGH THURS. AT THAT TIME...A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL S/W TROF IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS WITH CAP STRENGTH...
MODELS DO LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE S/WV AS WELL AS UPPER JET DYNAMICS. AT ANY RATE...
THE CHC POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW. 41

MARINE...
WINDS AT THE BUOYS ARE STEADILY DECREASING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO RELAX. WILL KEEP SCEC GOING UNTIL 00Z FOR THE 20-60 NM
WATERS WITH SEAS STILL 6 FT AT BUOY 020. COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TX
WILL REACH THE UPPER TX COAST AND STALL LATER TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACHING FRONT WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION AND BECOME VERY LIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH DENSE FOG LIKELY. THE FRONT
RETREATS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH SEA FOG LIKELY
AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. INCREASING WINDS COULD IMPROVE
CONDITIONS THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF FOG WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND STRENGTHEN THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM. CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS THU/THU NIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. 35

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 50 68 58 73 61 / 10 20 20 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 71 58 74 61 / 20 20 20 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 67 59 67 60 / 20 20 20 20 20

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
OUT 20 NM.

DISCUSSION...39

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KLOT 190928
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
328 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
310 PM CST

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE DEAL WITH PRECIP
AMOUNT AND PRECIP TYPE OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY
SOME ON TRACK OF LOW...BUT STILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP
EVENT OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT
WILL ADD TO FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS NOSING INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT TRICKY. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER THE RIDGE WITH MID DECK ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT AS
WELL AS THE STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALL HELP TO
DELAY/PREVENT DECOUPLING TONIGHT. QUITE A BIT OF RANGE IN THE
GUIDANCE...BUT DECIDED TO GO SOMEWHAT ON THE WARM SIDE...A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS TEMPS.

THIS WEEKEND...DIGGING TROF EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE GRADUALLY SATURATES ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
WITH PRECIP BEGINNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AGAIN...IMPORTANT DISCREPANCIES IN THE LOW TRACK CONTINUE BUT MODELS
DID SHIFT BACK SOUTH FROM YESTERDAYS TRACK. GFS/NAM/ECWMF COMING
INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF ILLINOIS WHILE SREF TAKES A WORST CASE TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. BASED ON CURRENT NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ANTICIPATED
POSITION OF WARM FRONT...LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. THE EXCEPTION/MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW WILL BE THE
NORTHERN COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP COLD LAYER BELOW ELEVATED WARM LAYER THAT WILL
REFREEZE FALLING PRECIP. PER THIS SOLUTION...SLEET WOULD BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING ALL
RAIN. SHOULD SREF SOLUTION PAN OUT...MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FREEZING
RAIN WHICH WOULD FALL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. RIGHT NOW...SREF
SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER.

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALSO A BIG CONCERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS QUITE LIKELY THAT A SWATH OF HALF INCH COULD FALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR OVER AN INCH. EVEN IF THE HIGHER 1+ INCH VALUES FALL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...THIS COULD STILL
TRIGGER PROBLEMS DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE FOX...DES PLAINES...AND ROCK
RIVER VALLEYS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL REACH ACTION STAGE OR FLOOD STAGE
FROM SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH SATURDAY AND ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY BECOME RUNOFF ATOP THE SATURATED/FROZEN
GROUND.

NEXT WEEK...WILL SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER BUT
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A GRADUAL WARMUP BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

BMD

.HYDROLOGY...

500 AM CST

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. RUNOFF
FROM SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN INCREASING FLOWS ON AREA
RIVERS. THE COMBINATION OF THE RELATIVELY GRADUAL MELT AND LOW
INITIAL FLOW CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD BE NO SIGNIFICANT
IMMEDIATE PROBLEMS.

HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ON AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL AS MILDER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
STREAM FLOW WILL RESULT IN BREAK UP OF ANY REMAINING ICE ON AREA
RIVERS. THE ICE BREAKUP CAN POSSIBLY RESULT IN LOCALIZED ICE JAM
FLOODING.

ALSO...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW EPISODES OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS ON THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT THAT COULD RESULT IN OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID
FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LATER NEXT WEEK YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE DECENT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

THESE EPISODES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KREIN/KJB

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* DECEASING NORTHWEST WIND BECOMING NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

A LARGE HIGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO FLORIDA TONIGHT
THIS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA TO SOUTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT 9 TO 12 KNOTS AND WILL BECOME NORTH BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME NORTHEAST AT 7 TO
9 KNOTS LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER COLORADO
THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS AND VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OUTLOOK FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWS
IFR CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECASTS.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE VFR FORECASTS.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

SUNDAY...IFR/LIFR. SLEET AND RAIN IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...IFR. CHANCE OF SNOW.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...MVFR. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

.MARINE...
317 AM CST

MAIN MARINE FORECAST ISSUES ARE DEALING WITH ENDING OF CURRENT
GALE WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES THIS MORNING
THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...THEN POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEASTERLY GALES
MAINLY ON NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AGAIN FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS EAST FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STILL A FEW OBS
INDICATING GUSTS OF GALE FORCE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
AT 09Z/3 AM CST...SO HAVE EXTENDED GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH 15Z/9 AM CST DURING WHICH TIME WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS DIMINISHING
BELOW 20 KTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WILL ALLOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR IL NEARSHORE WATERS AT 4 AM
CST. WILL BE EXTENDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY HOWEVER
FOR NEARSHORE WATERS EAST OF GARY INDIANA HOWEVER...AS WAVES OF 4
FT OR HIGHER EXPECTED TO ONLY GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THERE AFTER LONG
PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST FETCH. HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS POLAR
ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY INDICATES LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER IN IL/IND NEARSHORE WATERS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKE LATER
TODAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND THEN MOVES EAST INTO IL/IND AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF
THE LAKE ON SUNDAY. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PASSES...
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST GALES UP TO 40 KTS
OR SO ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY
BEFORE THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF
STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES ESPECIALLY ALONG IL NEARSHORE AREAS
AS EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS SUNDAY AHEAD OF LOW...AND AGAIN
MONDAY AS NORTHEAST/NORTH FLOW STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHICH WILL LIKELY STRETCH INTO TUESDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE.

RATZER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006...3 AM SUNDAY
TO 6 PM SUNDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868 UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 4 AM
SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 132129
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2011

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IMPRESSIVELY MILD THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND. NAM AND GFS 2 METER TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES TOO WARM...WHILE
CANADIAN AND ECMWF DOING FAIRLY WELL. ONLY SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER DECK POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH CAA. WITH TEMPS STARTING OFF IN THE
40S...WINDS STAYING UP ALL NIGHT...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATER
ON...LEANED TOWARD THE MILDER SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. WENT WITH TEMPS
SIMILAR TO CANADIAN AND ECMWF...WHICH HAVE PERFORMED WELL THE LAST
24 HOURS. MOISTURE DEEPER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT...BUT A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SO LEFT OUT ANY PRECIP MENTION.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TOMORROW IS INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT...AND
WHETHER OR NOT GUSTS WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. ISSUE IS
WHAT LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 KFT. GFS HAS MORE OF A MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILE...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO REALIZE HIGHER
WINDS TO THE SFC. NAM AND SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE STEEPER LAPSE
RATES AND WARRANT A BIT MORE CONCERN. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SNOW PACK
WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER NEAR THE SFC TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
HELP INHIBIT REALLY GOOD LAPSE RATES. IN THE END...OPTED TO NOT GO
WITH AN ADVISORY...AS NOT CONVINCED ON THE BEST MIXING OVERNIGHT
WITH A LOT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. STILL THINK GUSTS COULD GET UP TO
40 MPH THOUGH...THE BEST CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WILL CONTINUE TO COLD ADVECT ON MONDAY...BUT SKIES WILL TURN SUNNY
AND THINK ENOUGH MILDER AIR WILL LINGER EARLY TO SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID 30S.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE MID LEVEL BECOMES MORE ZONAL AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES REACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS WISCONSIN EARLY MONDAY
EVENING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOWER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE STILL DEEP SNOW COVER AND NEAR
CALM WINDS EARLY SETTING UP A STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT WILL
KEEP SURFACE WINDS RATHER LIGHT TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING EVEN WEST
OF MADISON WHERE 950 MB WINDS INCREASE TO TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT
CONTINUED STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS INTO TUESDAY SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO WARM DESPITE THE LACK OF DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW OR MID LEVEL CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH EXPECT A
THICKENING CIRRUS CLOUD COVER BY TUESDAY EVENING. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION BELOW 950 MB...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AS TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE WEST COAST REGION OF THE U.S.

DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AT 850
MB BUT THIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. DEEPER SURFACE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH FROM EAST TEXAS AS RIDGE ACROSS THE
GULF MOVES TO THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. HOWEVER THIS DEEPER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ONLY REACHES MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ON
WEDNESDAY.

NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME DRY AIR REMAINING IN THE MID
LEVELS...WITH SATURATION IN THE LOWEST 4 THSD FT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN A DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST DRIZZLE OR VERY
LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. NAM SOUNDINGS
THEN DECREASE THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION AS INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AND LOWERS...AND THE 850 MB MOISTURE PLUME MOVES EAST
AS THE 850 MB WINDS DECREASES AND BECOME MORE WEST.

.LONG TERM...

.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND BOTH EJECT AN SHORTWAVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY...REACHING MINNESOTA OR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS A LITTLE
QUICKER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW STRONGER.

BOTH 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF DEVELOP A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA
THURSDAY THEN MOVE IT ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT ON
THE GFS WITH THE ECMWF MORE TOWARDS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...WITH
BOTH TAKING IT NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY.

THEREFORE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY...WITH THE
FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BOTH MODELS BRING MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN...BUT 12Z ECMWF HAS INCREASED THE AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE DELLS TO SHEBOYGAN. THEREFORE ANY RIVER RISES WOULD
BE MAINLY FROM MELTING SNOW COVER. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.

GFS SHOWS SATURATED LOWER LEVELS THURSDAY BELOW 5 THSD FT BUT MID
LEVEL DRY PUNCH MOVES IN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SATURATED LOW
LEVELS CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE OCCLUDED/COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE GFS. ECMWF IS JUST A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND IS
PREFERRED. THEREFORE WILL DELAY COLD AIR ADVECTION UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING.

BY THE TIME WE NEED TO DECIDE ON A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT ON GFS VS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON ECMWF...THE LOW IS NEAR OR
EXITING THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION AND THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LOW.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

GFS TAKES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS A STRONGER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. GFS MOVES THIS
OFF RATHER QUICKLY EAST...REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER ECMWF IS SLOWER...STILL BUILDING THE
HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY GFS BEGINS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SURFACE HIGH AS...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER ECMWF ONLY WEAKENS THE HIGH SOMEWHAT OVER
WISCONSIN...WHILE THE MAIN LOW IS STILL ORGANIZING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...BUT SOES HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WEAK
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS.

.AVIATION...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME BKN MVFR
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN BEHIND
SFC TROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPSTREAM OBS THOUGH...AS THE MAV
SUGGESTS CIGS STAY VFR...THOUGH GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING
SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ANY MVFR CIGS THAT DO FORM SHOULD
BREAK UP MONDAY MORNING...WITH SKIES TURNING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POSSIBLE HIGHER WINDS.
BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE AND STILL THINK THESE
GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG JUST ABOVE THE SFC...AND WILL
KEEP LLVL SHEAR GOING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW GOOD MIXING
WILL BE IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KFT. GFS LESS IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD
PROBABLY RESULT IN GUSTS A BIT LOWER THAN IN TAFS. LEANED TOWARD
HIGHER GUST POTENTIAL REFLECTED IN NAM AND SREF SOUNDINGS. WINDS
WILL THEN DECREASE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY. MORE LIKELY TO GET GALE GUSTS TOWARD OPEN WATERS THIS
EVENING...WITH A PRETTY GOOD BET THROUGH THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.

DECREASED ICE COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR CURRENT TIME FRAME...DUE TO
WEB CAMS AND LATEST MODIS IMAGERY. WITH MILD TEMPS AND CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW...DROPPED ICE COVERAGE ALL THE WAY TO ZERO FOR TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. THUS EXPECTING WAVES TO INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET WITH
STRONG WINDS...THE HIGHEST WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATERS DUE TO OFFSHORE
NATURE OF WINDS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...07/DDV

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 100922
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
322 AM CST THU FEB 10 2011

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

COLDEST AIR SETTLING IN OVER REGION THIS MORNING UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. RIDGE HAS CALMED WINDS IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN
FORECAST AREA...SO WIND CHILLS NOT BEING REPORTED BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT THE OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF 5 MPH WIND WILL MEET
OR EXCEED CRITERIA. PATCH OF THIN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MN WILL CLEAR SRN WISCONSIN AROUND
DAWN SO STILL ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING
AFTER SUNRISE. WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS IS.

WINDS WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST TODAY BEHIND RIDGE AXIS WITH SOME
MINOR MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH COLD
START...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY.

WITH LATER START TO STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM
WESTERN CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL TEMPER TEMPERATURE FALL
TONIGHT...BUT WITH SLOWER WAA LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE.

.FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH SRN WI ON FRIDAY.
MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...BUT DECENT SATURATION.
THINK MOST PLACES WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW FLAKES...BUT THINK CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. KEPT SCATTERED FLURRIES IN
THE EAST IN THE EVENING AS THE WAVES EXITS.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN SRN CANADA NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS ON
SATURDAY...THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. THE
GFS IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE LOW...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT SNOW
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE NRN CWA. PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH FORECAST AREA PER THE GFS...THOUGH CANADIAN AND ECMWF SUGGEST
DRY FORECAST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BECOMING WESTERLY SUNDAY. THIS LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP PULL UP A MILDER AIRMASS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ECMWF AND CANADIAN 2 METER TEMPS SUGGESTING LOW 40S BY
SUNDAY...BUT NOT BITING ON THESE DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE LATEST SNOW COVER ANALYSIS SHOWS SNOW ON THE
GROUND AS FAR SOUTH AS A THE TX/OK PANHANDLES EAST INTO KY AND TN.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI MONDAY WILL SLIDE EAST TO
THE KY/TN BORDER TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS SRN
WI FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
ALONG WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN AND TYPICALLY MILD WESTERLY SFC
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE MID
30S.

DECENT WAA THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE AREA. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SATURATION CONFINED TO
THE LOWEST 5 KFT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MORE LIKELY RESULT IN A DRIZZLE
THAN ANYTHING ELSE. WITH COOLER TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH TEMPS THEN WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST
DRIZZLE OR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
ALTOCUMULUS/CIRRUS THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING CIRRUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...LOWERING TO AC OVERNIGHT
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
BEFORE 18Z FRIDAY AT KMKE...WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF TROUGH
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING
UP TO 20-25 KNOT WINDS. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING ICE COVER
BEYOND THE 5 NAUTICAL MILE MARK SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT...AND AT
LEAST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS COVERED TO THE NORTH...SO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY PREDICATED ON WINDS ONLY AS WAVES WILL BE SUPPRESSED
WITH ICE AND OFFSHORE FLOW.

CURRENT GUST FORECASTS AT 20 KNOTS...WHICH MEANS A FEW GUSTS COULD
REACH/EXCEED 22 KNOTS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A HEADLINE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-
051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...NONE.
&&

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV/07
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM/09

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 092129
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CST WED FEB 9 2011

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TEMPS AND WIND CHILL TEMPS WITHIN
ARCTIC AIR MASS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST WI. WINDS WILL
DIE DOWN QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WI AS THE SFC DECOUPLES FROM
UPPER LEVELS AND MIXING CEASES. WINDS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE WILL
BE SLOWER TO DECOUPLE...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO DIE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY IN THE WEST WITH THE DECOUPLED WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN THE
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE -10F AND LOWER TEMPS FOR MINS WILL BE WEST OF A
LINE APPROX FROM FOND DU LAC TO JUNEAU TO WATERTOWN TO BURLINGTON.

COLDEST WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA /CWA/ WHERE THE WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME COLD SPOTS IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN
CWA...BUT CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD OR LONG ENOUGH DURATION
TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVY AT THIS TIME. ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVY FOR
THE EASTERN CWA...WITH THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BEGINNING JUST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THE REST OF THE COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WILL BEGIN THU AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE. A FEW HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID CLOUDS COULD
MAKE THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
WAA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAY...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FCST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NW FLOW ALOFT BUT SWLY SFC WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL DURING
THIS PERIOD. AT THE ONSET THOUGH...THU NT WILL BE COLD DUE TO LGT
WINDS AND SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS. FOR FRI...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...SFC TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS DO SATURATE ATMOSPHERE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS BUT VERY WEAK LIFT SO KEPT POPS LOW. WEAK SFC
RIDGING WILL FOLLOW THE SFC TROUGH FRI NT WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH COOLING TEMPS. SWLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION TO
DEVELOP ON SAT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
ALBERTA CANADA TO LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MOVES ACROSS THAT SAME AREA. GOOD 850 MB WARM ADVECTION TO BRING
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA BUT WARM ADVECTION IS WEAKER
ALOFT. MODELS STILL HANGING ONTO DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS SO
KEPT OUT MENTION OF PCPN BUT IF WAA INCREASES THROUGH A DEEPER
LAYER...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE NEEDED. WARM ADVECTION TO BOOST 850
MB TEMPS FROM -8C ON FRI TO +2-4C ON SAT WITH SFC HIGH TEMPS
REACHING AT LEAST THE MID 30S ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...FCST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN GRTLKS ON SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER SRN WI. HIGH TEMPS TO REACH UPPER 30S.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUN NT AND MON AM AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK
COLD ADVECTION. POLAR HIGH OVER CENTRAL USA TO THEN SHIFT EWD WITH
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA CANADA DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN/USA GREAT PLAINS ON WED. SWLY WINDS AND WARM
ADVECTION TO PREVAIL WITH HIGH TEMPS FROM MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
WARM ADVECTION MAY GENERATE SOME VERY LGT PCPN.

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...AND THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD INTO
SOUTHWEST WI. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WI AS
THE SFC DECOUPLES FROM UPPER LEVELS AND MIXING CEASES. WINDS CLOSER
TO THE LAKESHORE WILL BE SLOWER TO DIE DOWN...BUT EXPECT THEM TO
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THU AFTERNOON AND
BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT.

.MARINE...WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY EASE INTO THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES RELAXES. WINDS WILL
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVY CRITERIA UNTIL AT LEAST FRI AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS ICE FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE WIDTH OF THE
NEARSHORE FROM WINTRHOP HARBOR UP TO NORTH POINT LIGHT...AND ABOUT
HALF THE WIDTH FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO SHHEBOYGAN...AND EVEN UP TO
MANITOWOC.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
WIZ058>060-064>066-070>072.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR WIZ047-051-052.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...20
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...13

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 082113
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
313 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS DURING
THIS PERIOD.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING ACROSS MONTANA...THE DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA
AND IOWA WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO
KANSAS...IOWA AND MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND PLAINS...AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY...A
FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS WI. GRADIENT WINDS
WERE CONSISTENTLY IN THE 7 TO 13 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND THE GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL EASE UP MUCH
TONIGHT...BUT WILL EASE A BIT IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
/CWA/ BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. JUST ABOVE THE SFC...WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 20 TO 35KT RANGE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A STEEP
INVERSION SO THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL NOT BE REALIZED IN THE GUSTS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR AVIATION.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY FOR TONIGHT. THERE WAS SOME WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION AT 925MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE 925MB TEMPS
WILL LEVEL OUT THIS EVENING...AND THEN COLD ADVECT AGAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE STEEP INVERSION AND LOW DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER DARK WITH THE CLEAR
SKIES. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AGAIN BY WED
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE FCST MINS...WHICH ARE
0 TO -11 BELOW ZERO...WITH LONE ROCK THE COLD SPOT AND MKE/PORT
WASHINGTON THE WARM SPOT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT WINDS
TO GENERATE WIND CHILL VALUES LESS THAN -20F IN ALL OF THE COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON WED...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FROM 03Z THROUGH 18Z.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IN THE BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW....AFFECTING
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CLEARLY SHOW THE PARCHED LOOK TO SOUNDINGS. LOW LEVEL RH
PROGS ALSO SHOWING ANY DECENT MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE WEST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THINK THE COLDER 2 METER TEMPS FROM
THE ECMWF AND GFS LOOK BETTER THAN THE WARMER NAM NUMBERS. WILL THUS
LEAN TOWARDS THE FORMER. THE WAVE ALOFT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH SWING
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES AS SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW LOWER LEVELS MOISTENING UP A BIT...BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE QUITE
SHALLOW. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS ALL SHOWING ANOTHER WAVE...THIS ONE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
THE LAST....SWINGING THROUGH LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A
LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE...WEAK 700 OMEGA NOTED. THE UPPER JET CORE IS
DISPLACED PRETTY FAR NORTH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH OF THE FAVORED
DIVERGENCE REGIONS ACROSS THE CWA. WILL GO WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
PER CONSENSUS POPS.

SATURDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
IMPRESSIVE 850 MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. GFS SATURATES
MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF. 0.01 PAINTED BY THE GFS IN THE NORTHERN CWA
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS QPF IN THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN. IN FACT 850 WINDS
PROGGS WELL OVER 50 KNOTS RIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN
THE GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY MID LEVELS. FOR NOW WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE DRY LOOK OF THE ECMWF/OLD GEM AND GFS
ENSEMBLES...KEEPING PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
SURFACE LOW VICINITY OF EASTERN UP PROGGD TO SHIFT EAST WITH ECMWF
SHOWING STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY 00Z MONDAY 850 TEMPS
FROMECMWF ARE 4-6C WHILE GFS SHOWING -5 TO -7C WRAPPING IN BEHIND
THE LOW. STEERED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE MILDER ECMWF WHICH
APPEARS TO BE WHAT THE CONSENSUS NUMBERS ARE GRAVITATING TOWARDS.
EVEN THE MORE CYCLONIC LOOKING GFS IS NOT ROBUST ON THE QPF.

MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A VERY SHARP 850 TROUGH.
AGAIN...SUFRACE LOW IS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. SOME UPPER JET
ACTION...THOUGH BY AND LARGE LOOKS PRETTY WEAK. SURFACE/850 RIDGE
SLIDES IN PRETTY QUICK LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 RIDGE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST.
WARMING MORE PRONOUNCED ON GFS THAN ECMWF. PRECIP STAYS WEST OF THE
CWA. MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL/PERHAPS JUST RAIN...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A CONCERN TONIGHT AS 1000-2000
FT WNW WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

.MARINE...LATEST MODIS IMAGE SHOWED ICE COVER FOR MOST OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY MILWAUKEE AND SOUTH. WITH A LITTLE
DEEPER MIXING OVER THE NSH WATERS THROUGH WED EVENING...WINDS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY CRITERIA AT TIMES...MAINLY IN THE WIND
GUSTS. FEEL THAT THE SITUATION IS TOO MARGINAL AT THE TIME TO ISSUE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE JUST
NORTH OF SHEBOYGAN THROUGH WED EVENING.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...CRONCE

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 050930
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CST SAT FEB 5 2011

.VERY SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE AREA APPEAR OVERDONE WITH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS MORNING. WILL TREND TOWARDS LESS
CLOUD COVER DURING THIS TIME AS SATELLITE SHOWS JUST A LITTLE
SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT WITH EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME INCREASE IN
STRATUS MAY ALSO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LNR...MSN AND MKE.
PREFER MAV MOS OVER NAM MOS FOR CEILING HEIGHTS.

.SHORT TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BRING CONTINUED SNOW CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN WI THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. SINCE THE SIGNAL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS FOR A POTENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO CROSS IOWA AND
SOUTHERN WI...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS SUNDAY MORNING TO
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA /CWA/. SNOW
TOTAL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE 1.5 TO JUST
OVER 2 INCHES AT THIS TIME.

AS THE STRONGEST WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST SUN AFTERNOON...DRIER AND
COLDER AIR WILL FUNNEL DOWN INTO SOUTHERN WI. THERE WILL BE WEAKER
UPPER WAVES CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH SUN NIGHT...SO KEPT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FCST...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE OF ANYTHING MORE THAN
FLURRIES IS LOW. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO BACK FROM NORTH TO
NORTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OR LIGHT
SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EAST. DELTA TS WILL NOT BE VERY
LARGE...MAINLY LESS THAN 13C DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ECMWF
ESPECIALLY FAVORS THIS SCENARIO OVER THE GFS. MODELS KEEP TRENDING
IN THE DIRECTION OF NO LAKE EFFECT...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP THIS IDEA
IN MIND.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SETS
UP ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. COLD AIR WILL SURGE DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN WI MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND -16C
OVER THE AREA BY TUE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD
AIR IS EXPECTED BY THU MORNING...AND BY THU NIGHT...A CORE OF -20C
925MB TEMPS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL WI. THE PREVIOUS 12Z RUN
OF THE ECMWF WAS MUCH WARMER...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF CAME IN VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS NOW...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT WE WILL
SEE THIS PROLONGED COLD AIR OVER THE REGION THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A STRONG WARM-UP NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER.

.AVIATION...
NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE AREA APPEAR OVERDONE WITH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS MORNING. WILL TREND TOWARDS LESS
CLOUD COVER DURING THIS TIME AS SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE SOUTHERLY
MOVEMENT WITH EXTENSIVE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. PREFER MAV MOS
OVER NAM MOS FOR CEILING HEIGHTS.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT BUT LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS SATURATION OCCURRING TOWARD MORNING BUT NAM
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE RATHER LOW. THUS
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR
CONDITIONS. VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR IN FOG WITH SOME
IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LIGHT SNOW LATE.

.MARINE...WEST WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN REGION.
FALSE COLOR MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS WHICH SHOWS ICE/SNOW VS WATER
INDICATES ICE COVERAGE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IS NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS THE
VISIBLE IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST. SOME OF THIS COULD BE SLUSHY ICE OR
POSSIBLY MORE OF A TURBIDITY DIFFERENCE WITH THE PRIOR BRISK
WINDS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...13/MRC
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...06/HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 310931
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

FORECAST EMPHASIS ON SNOW AND AMOUNTS FROM INCOMING ROUND ONE OF
SNOW. PERIOD OF ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 300MB JET RESULTS IN SATURATION OF LOW LAYERS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH BEST PERIOD OF ENHANCED LIFT TONIGHT WITH PERIOD OF UPPER
LEVEL JET COUPLING. LIGHT SNOW SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI WL
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOST OF WESTERN CWA THIS MRNG...
EVENTUALLY SATURATING DRY LOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTN.
-SN REPORTS LINE UP WELL WITH LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
ON 285 THETA SFC. THESE LWR CPD WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
OVERSPREAD SRN WI THROUGH THE DAY.

COBB AND THICKNESS TECHNIQUES FAVOR SNOW LIQUID RATIOS OF AROUND 18
TO 1 FOR THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE AREA WITH 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL THROUGH 12Z/TUE.
LAYER FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO 2D FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS PUSHES INTO
WESTERN CWA THIS EVE WHICH FALLS IN MODERATE OMEGA IN FAVORABLE
DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. THIS ENHANCED SNOWFALL FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL TOTALS. NEXT
SHIFT WL NEED TO REEVALUATE WHETHER WINTER STORM WARNING WOULD BE
MORE APPROPRIATE. ALSO BEEFED UP AMOUNTS SEVERAL INCHES IN EAST DUE
TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT CONTRIBUTION. DELTA-T INCREASES TO 17 DEGREES
LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO A MORE FAVORABLE FETCH. LAKE INDUCED
CAPE NEAR 300 J BY LATE TNGT AT KSBM. WL NEED TO WATCH LAKESHORE
AND NEXT TIER INLAND AS WELL FOR BEEFIER HEADLINES FOR LATE TNGT
INTO TUE.

SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WEAKENS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS JET PULLS OFF AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD. INCREASING SHORT
WAVE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE WL ALSO DMSH
FORCING AWAY FROM LAKE TUE MRNG AS WEAKENING 500MB PORT VORT SHIFTS EWD.

WL POSTPONE WINTER WX ADVY FOR SHEBOYGAN COUNTY UNTIL LATER THIS
MRNG. SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN
LOOKING FAIRLY WEAK ATTM.

TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COULD SEE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FROM THE SYNOPTIC EVENT...PERHAPS
ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN THE MORNING. ADVISORY MAY BE ABLE TO BE
DROPPED EARLY...AT LEAST FOR INLAND LOCALES AWAY FROM ANY INFLUENCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. THEN A BIT OF A LULL...BUT VERY SMALL AT
THAT...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE/700 TROUGH SHIFT EAST WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DOWNWARD MOTION. QYUICK SHOT OF 500 RIDGING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MAJOR STORM SYSTEM. MAIN CONCERN BEFORE THE BIG STORM
MOVES IN WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT TRENDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
THE MOST FAVORED AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE SHEBOYGAN AREA WHERE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS BETWEEN THE LAKE AND AIR AT AROUND 5000
FEET FORECASTED TO BE AS COLD AS 19C...WHICH IS VERY FAVORABLE
INSTABILTY. FETCH LOOKS VERY GOOD AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETER
SHOWS FAVORABLE VALUES AS WELL. NAM AND WRF20 BOTH SHOW A NE/SW
ORIENTED BAND EXTENDING INTO SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. MAY NEED AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING FOR THIS SPECIFIC LAKE EFFECT EVENT DEPENDING ON WHERE
BAND SETS UP AND HOW THE BAND WOULD ADD TO THE TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM
THE PRIOR EVENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
BLIZZARD POTENTIAL LOOKING VERY HIGH FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST CWA.
CANT RULE OUT MODELS LOCKED ONTO STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WITH COUPLED
JET STRUCTURE. NAM AND GFS BOTH EXPLODE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS SE
WI AROUND MIDNIGHT. NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW 850 MILLIBAR FRONTOGENESIS
PEAKING SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT HAVE IMPRESSIVE VALUES OF 700-500
MILLIBAR FRONTOGENESIS IN SOUTHERN WI...THUS STRONG SLOPING
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE VERY STRONG...700-300
MILLIBAR VALUES OVER 50 UNITS AT MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A SUBTLE
WEAKENING IN VALUES BY 6 AM WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPICALLY...280-290K
PLOTS SHOW MIXING RATIOS PUSHING 3 G/KG IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
INGREDIENTS PLOTS FROM BOTH NAM SHOW BEST PVU...OVERLAP OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND SATURATED EQUIVELANT POTENTIAL VORTICITY...TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER AT THIS POINT. EVENING SHIFT
FORECASTER ADJUSTED SNOW RATIOS AFTER ASSESSING ROEBBER TECHNIQUE
AND WILL USE THIS AND APPLY AN AVERAGE QPF TO COME UP WITH
TOTALS...IN MANY PERIODS...HPC IS A NICE BLEND...BUT WILL ACCOUNT
FOR SOME HIGHER NUMBERS IN THE EAST DUE TO THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
NORTHEAST 50-60 KNOT 850 MILLIBAR JET CORE...WITH 45-55 KNOTS AT 925
MILLIBARS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE SETUP FOR
MIXING DOWN GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE BEEN TOYING WITH THE IDEA OF EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WATCH ANOTHER SET OF COUNTIES WEST...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF AT THE
MOMENT. HOWEVER...WILL ADD GREEN LAKE AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES TO THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND 3-5/3-6 TYPE SNOWS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES TO
CONTEND WITH...ONE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER ONE FOR SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...COMBINATION OF INCREASING LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WL RESULT IN IFR OR LWR CIGS AND VSBYS SPREADING ACROSS SRN
WI TODAY...LASTING THRU TNGT.

.MARINE...SOUTHERN LAKESHORE SITES FLIRTING WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WIND GUSTS LAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT EXPECTING WINDS TO
SLACKEN OFF A BIT THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHT WEAKENING OF
LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. WL HOLD OFF ON EXPANDING SMALL
CRAFT FOR NOW. STILL EXPECT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MI TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER
SRN PLAINS. WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY TNGT INTO TUE WITH GALE WATCH
FROM TUE AFTN INTO WED AFTN. GALE FORCE WINDS MAY APPROACH STORM
FORCE LEVEL WIND GUSTS...SO GALE WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED TO STORM
WATCH IN LATER SHIFTS.

AVERAGE LAKE TEMP 2-3C. HI RES MODIS IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY SHOWS
MINIMAL NEARSHORE ICE FROM MKE NWD...WITH A BIT MORE ICE COVERAGE
SOUTH OF MKE IN THE SHALLOWER WATERS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM CST
TUESDAY FOR WIZ064>066-068>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ046-047-051-056>058-062-063-067-068.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ052-059-060-064-065-069-070.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ066-071-072.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST
TUESDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062-063-067.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LMZ643>646.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR
TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KLOT 310937
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
337 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...MULTIFACETED...DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING WINTER
STORM TAKING AIM ON REGION...

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)....

THE HEADLINER OF WINTER EVENTS DOESNT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER FIRST WE GET TO DEAL WITH AN OPENING ACT
TONIGHT...

LEAD SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING WESTERN KS/PANHANDLE REGION.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE RIDES SW FLOW INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LOOK FOR
SNOW TO BREAK OUT AS IT BEGINS TO TAP INTO BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY AS
A RESULT OF 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET. BROAD REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND LACK OF WELL DEFINED FOCUS MAKES QPF FORECAST TONIGHT
TRICKY...HOWEVER MODELS DO SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON ZONE OF
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN CWA FOR SOMEWHAT
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. SOUTHERN CWA WILL ALSO HAVE WARMER TEMP PROFILE
AND WITH MODELS FREQUENTLY UNDERESTIMATING MAGNITUDE OF WARMING IN
STRONG WAA REGIMES HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE CHC OF SLEET WITH THE
SNOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT.

WARMER THERMAL PROFILE AND POTENTIAL FOR SLEET BOTH ARGUE FOR LOWER
SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS SOUTH WHERE HIGHER QPF OCCURS. WHILE LOWER QPF
AND HIGHER SLR'S FARTHER NORTH SUPPORT SIMILAR SNOWFALL TOTALS AND
GENERALLY STICKING WITH A 1-3 INCH FORECAST TONIGHT...THOUGH LOCAL 4
INCH AMOUNTS WOULDNT BE AT ALL SURPRISING. LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF/ENDING
AND POSSIBLY EVEN TRANSITIONING TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

HOPEFULLY ANY FRDZ WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ROAD
CREWS A CHANCE TO CATCH A FEW HOURS OF SLEEP EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
THE BIG HULLABALOO STARTS TUESDAY. OVERALL AGREEMENT IN MODELS ON
SYNOPTIC DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXCELLENT...WITH
JUST THE 00Z NAM A LITTLE WEAKER/FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM AND LARGELY
BEING DISCOUNTED.

I CANNOT STRESS THIS POINT ENOUGH:
MODEL ACCURACY AT THIS DISTANCE IS NOT SUCH THAT ITS WISE TO OFFER
ANY DEGREE OF CERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL TOTALS. STRONG
SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...SUCH AS THIS ONE...MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSIONS
TYPICALLY RESULT IN VERY TIGHT GRADIENTS IN SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG
THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND. EVEN WITH VERY STRONG MODEL
AGREEMENT...IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO SEE FORECAST STORM TRACKS IN
MODELS SHIFT BY 100 MILES OR MORE IN AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS FROM
THE ARRIVAL OF THE STORM WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING/OCCLUDING LOWS.
SUCH A SHIFT IN STORM TRACK COULD RESULT IN AREAS FORECAST TO GET
1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ENDING UP DRY SLOTTED WITH DRASTICALLY LIGHTER
ACCUMULATIONS. GIVEN THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...NO PLANS TO MAKE
UPGRADE ANY OF THE WATCH AT THIS TIME. HAVING SAID ALL THIS...HERE
ARE THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE STORM AS THEY APPEAR NOW...

SNOWFALL:
INTENSE 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT IN TRANSPORTING
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SUPPLYING THE CYCLONE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
BOTH WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
TROWAL/DEFORMATION ZONE. QPF IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
VARIOUS MODELS AND USING A REASONABLY CONSERVATIVE 10-12:1 SLR
RESULTS IN SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8-14 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT ALONE.
PROBABLY WORTH NOTING THAT CALCULATING/MEASURING THE ACTUAL
SNOW:LIQUID RATIO THAT OCCURS MAY WELL BE DIFFICULT OR NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF BLOWING/DRIFTING EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...VERY STRONG WINDS COULD RIP DENDRITES APART...FURTHER
LOWERING THE EFFECTIVE SNOW:LIQUID RATIO.

SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
HEAVIEST TOTALS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN NE IL AS IMPROVING
THERMAL PROFILES RESULT IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT SET
UP. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD SHIFT EAST INTO NW INDIANA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION
RESULTING IN INTENSIFYING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
ALONE COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN NE IL
AND PROBABLY MORE THAN THAT IN NW INDIANA. AS MENTIONED EARLIER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH SNOWFALL GRADIENT AND WITH GFS
/WRF-NAM BOTH SUGGESTING DRY INTRUSION MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA
LATE TUES NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN TOTALS OVER A FOOT CWA-WIDE IS
MODERATE.

WIND:
DEEPENING LOW SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT KICKS IN WITH QUICK DEPARTURE AND FILLING OF
THE LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO POSSIBLY 50 MPH COMMON.
HOWEVER...NEAR THE LAKE WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER...PROBABLY
30-40 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS:
VERY HIGH QPF TOTALS RAISE DOUBTS ABOUT THE BLOW-ABILITY OF THE SNOW
THAT FALLS. HOWEVER SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR APPEAR
LIKELY FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO
KNOCK VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1/4SM SATISFYING THE BLIZZARD
WARNING CRITERIA. FURTHER INCREASING THE THREAT OF NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITIES IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSNOW. WILL BE A VERY
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WITH INTENSE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES AS
INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS WORKS IN CONCERT WITH TREMENDOUS UPWARD MOTION
RESULTING FROM FAST MOVING...RAPIDLY DEEPENING/CLOSING OFF MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WITHIN
THE DRY INTRUSION WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 7 AND 8C/KM...WITH SOME OF
THAT INSTABILITY LIKELY GETTING TAPPED INTO AND PROBABLY RESULTING
IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

LAKESHORE FLOODING:
NORTHEAST WINDS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50-60
MPH MAKES LAKESHORE FLOODING A BIG CONCERN. HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM JAN 28TH SHOWED THAT ICE THAT HAD
ACCUMULATED NEAR THE IL SHORE HAD BEEN BLOWN WELL OFFSHORE...AND
APPEARED SOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED IN NATURE EAST OF THE ILLINOIS SHORE.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH THAT ICE WILL
RETARD WAVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SHORE...BUT WITH 14-18FT
SIGNIFICANT WAVES AND OCCASIONAL WAVES OVER 25FT OFFSHORE
POTENTIALLY TAKING A TOLL ON ICE HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND HOIST A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH. ITS POSSIBLE THAT ICE
COULD MITIGATE THE COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL...BUT HARD TO SAY FOR
SURE AND IF ICE ISNT A BIG DETERRENT THEN THE COASTAL FLOODING COULD
BE VERY SIGNIFICANT.

IZZI

TEMPERATURES AND LONG TERM...

MONDAY... THE 850 MB PROFILER DATA AT 07 UTC SHOWS THE
WIND BECOMING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS BEGINNING AND WE EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN 20 TO 25 RANGE TODAY AND TUESDAY. A
SMALL 500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
TODAY. THE FORECAST FRONTOGENESIS VECTORS AT 850 MB SHOW A FRONT
DEVELOPING ALOFT LATER TODAY. THIS IS SEEN USING OUR LOCAL WRF.
THIS LOCAL WRF IS FORECASTING SNOW TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
IN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. HEIGHT FALLS WERE LARGE OVER ARIZONA
AT 00 UTC. A 70 KNOT JET STREAK WAS SEEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST AT 00 UTC. SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOPS THIS JET
IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE. WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO EXTENDS
INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BY 07 UTC. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF
KINETIC ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE AND A CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER TEXAS. THE 07 UTC SURFACE MAP SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH WEST
VIRGINIA. VERY COLD AIR IS SEEN MOVING INTO MONTANA AND THE
DAKOTAS. THIS CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME INTENSE OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS OR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 300 MB JET
STREAK IS EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH THE POLAR JET OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LOCATION OF THE TWO JET MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS MAY PLACE
THE MAXIMUM UPPER AIR DIVERGENCE IN A BAND OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TO NORTHERN INDIANA. SOME CONVEYOR BELT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
ALSO. THIS IS SEEN IN THE FORECAST FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
ISENTROPIC SURFACE FORECASTS AND WIND FORECAST AT 300 MB. THE 200
MB ANALYSIS SHOW COLD AIR OVER THE REGION FROM NORTHERN COLORADO
TO NORTHERN OHIO AT 00 UTC. THERE IS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ALL OF
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IS MORE
EVIDENCE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING 500 MB LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE LOW TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WITH THE SNOW
OCCURRING WE EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S
WEDNESDAY. BUT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE TEMPERATUES
MAY FALL TO BELOW ZERO IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO NORTHWEST
INDIANA. SINGLE DIGITS ARE FORECAST FOR ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. THE
NORTHWEST WIND WILL SET UP A LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST
INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL SET UP A SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY
THURSDAY. A LARGE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN TEXAS.
THIS HIGH WAS A VERY COLD CONTINENTAL ARCTIC AIR MASS IN MANITOBA
AND SASKATCHEWAN AT 07 UTC TODAY. AS THIS AIR MASS MOVES SOUTH IT
WILL MODIFY A LITTLE...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE OVER A LARGE AND
DEEP SNOW PACK. WE WILL FORECAST SINGLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...A WEST WIND IS FORECAST OVER IOWA AND
ILLINOIS. THE TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN THE 20S FRIDAY. THE 500 MB
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA. WE USED THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST.
A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER IOWA AND MINNESOTA WHICH IS A
REFLECTION OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE TO 700 MB. WE
WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 08Z...

* MVFR CIGS ABV015 THRU PREDAWN HRS...RETURN BY EARLY EVE.

* GRADUALLY INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

* LIGHT SNOW SPREADING W TO E ACROSS REGION...REACHING CHI AREA BY
EARLY EVE.

TRS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 08Z...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST EXCEPT TO TWEAK NEXT FEW HRS TO
MESH WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS CONTINUING
TO STREAM WWD/SWWD INTO SERN WI...NERN IL. PERSISTENT ENELY LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE HELPING TO ERODE LOWER MVFR CLOUD DECK. AT
05Z...THE BACK EDGE OF LOWER CLOUDS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN...TO JUST E OF GYY...TO NEAR PNT. THIS BACK EDGE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CLEARING WWD...MOVING THROUGH NERN IL BY 09Z.
OVERLYING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSD WITH A DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL BE THICKENING AND LOWERING
ACROSS AREA BY 12Z. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE MONDAY.

ON MONDAY...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
ALOFT OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS IS FORECAST TO ALLOW AN AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OR MONDAY EVENING...WITH CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR BY
03Z TUE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN ENELY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING AFTER 15Z MON...TO FQT GUSTS AOA 20 KT.

MERZLOCK

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 08Z...

* MEDIUM ON TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND ON RETURN OF MVFR AND
IFR THIS EVE.

* HIGH ON WINDS.

* MEDIUM ON ONSET OF -SN LATER AFTERNOON-EARLY EVE.

TRS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING. HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING BY
TUESDAY EVENING WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WINDS GUSTING
AS HIGH AS 35 KT TUESDAY EVENING/TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO VLIFR BY 00Z WED.

WEDNESDAY...SNOW ENDING MIDDAY. BLOWING SNOW. WINDS DIMINISHING
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VLIFR-IFR...IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE.

THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

MERZLOCK

.MARINE...

335 AM...HIGH END GALES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES MAINLY DEALING WITH STRONG WINTER STORM
THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEK. MAIN VORT ASSOCD WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST US. SFC LOW WILL EMERGE OVER TEXAS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND TRACK NORTHEAST...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...STRONG
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SETTING
UP TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL LEAD TO GALES ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. HEAVY SNOW...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO BE PART OF
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. AREA OF WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS.
STRONG FORCING WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF MODERATE AND HEAVY SNOWFALL.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GALES BEGINNING OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 45 KTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL APPROACH STORM
FORCE CRITERIA. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE ACTUALLY BACKED OFF A COUPLE
KNOTS WHILE GFS WENT STRONGER SHOWING STORM FORCE WINDS FOR ABOUT 6
HRS OR SO AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND ON THE TRACK OF LOW...SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON UPGRADE TO
STORM WATCH. COLD AIR ADVECTING OVER THE LAKE DURING THIS TIME WILL
LEAD TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

ICE...WHICH MOVED FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND...SHOULD BE PUSHED
BACK INTO THE NEARSHORE ZONES AS WINDSPEEDS INCREASE. THIS SHOULD
PROHIBIT WAVE ACTION IN THE NEARSHORES DURING THE PERIOD OF
STRONGEST WINDS.

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BLIZZARD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM
WEDNESDAY.

IN...BLIZZARD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...NOON
TUESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-
LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM
WEDNESDAY.

GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...6 PM
TUESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...3 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KLWX 292015
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
315 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

A SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK EAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARD THE AREA LATER MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

IN A FLASHBACK - WHAT A DIFFERENCE A HALF-YEAR MAKES. I WAS THINKING
AB HOW HOT IT WAS AT THE END OF JUL 2010 SO I DID SOME SEARCHING.
JUL 29 - ALL 3 MAJOR AIRPORTS HAD HIGH TEMPS OF 92-94 W/ LOWS OF
73-76. THERE WERE STRONG TSTMS THAT AFTN - IAD GUSTED TO 45 MPH. SIX
MONTHS HENCE WL WE BE THINKING ABT THE SNOWS OF THIS PAST WED?

BACK TO TDA - SFC ANLYS SHOWS AN ARCTIC BNDRY ACROSS SRN
QUEBEC/ONTARIO. CLRG SKIES ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL SHEN
VLLY...DENSER CLD CVR CLOSER TO THE PA BRDR. THESE CLDS ARE
CAUGHT UP IN A JET RUNNING FM THE UPR MIDWEST TO PA. A SHRT WV IS
PROGRESSING THRU THIS FLOW BRINGING SNOW TO PA. S OF THE MASON-
DIXON LN HAS HAD A FEW OBS OF LGT SNOW...AND MAY CONT TO DO SO
THRU ERLY EVE...BUT NO APPRECIABLE SNOW IS XPCTD.

AFTR THAT SKIES XPCTD TO RMN GNRLY CLDY AS THAT UPR LVL FLOW
PERSISTS OVR THE MID ATLC RGN. THERE SHOULD BE LTL DIURNAL TEMP
VARIATION TNGT - LOWEST TEMPS IN THE HIGHLANDS IN M20S...BUT
MAJORITY OF THE CWA WL ONLY FALL TO 25-30.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

ON SUNDAY THE CD FNT THAT IS IN ASSO W/ THE SHRT WV OVR OH WL BE
MOVING THRU THE MID ATLC. BLV THAT SUNDAY MRNG WL STILL SEE A FAIR AMT
OF CLD CVR...BUT THEN BRKS WL DVLP DURG THE AFTN. MDLS ARE FCSTG
U40S IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY...I'M GOING TO HOLD AT THE M40S.
FURTHER N TEMPS WL TOP OUT IN THE U30S AND L40S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A VERY DEEP LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
WILL DRIFT TOWARD LABRADOR AS A BROAD RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...BRINGING A ZONAL SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. AN EASTERLY FLOW/CAD WILL
SETUP MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

THE COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL MAKE
FOR A VERY COMPLEX PRECIPITATION SCENARIO MONDAY INTO MID WEEK. AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
SATURATION EARLY MONDAY WOULD RESULT IN FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE
BLUE RIDGE AND WEST WITH TEMPS 0 TO -5C GENERALLY NOT COLD ENOUGH
FOR ICE CRYSTALS...WENT WITH LOW CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN SINCE
ACCRETION IS POSSIBLE. AS THE SATURATION DEPTH INCREASES WITH MID
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
EAST FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH A MOISTURE PLUME RIDING A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. WITH THE WARMING MID
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...ISENTROPIC FLOW INCREASES...AND THE
PRECIP LIKELIHOOD WILL BECOME LIQUID /RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN/ AS
SOLID PRECIP /SNOW AND SLEET/ ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
LIGHT PRECIP RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE PICKING UP
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHETHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...IT WILL BE UP TO THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHETHER
THE WARMER AIR CAN MIX OR RADIATE DOWN. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST FOR EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW WILL CROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION RAPIDLY ENTERING THE REGION
WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IS LIKELY
LATE WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WHILE THERE WL BE XTNSV CLD CVR OVR THE MID ATLC RGN TNGT BLV CIGS
WL RMN IN THE VFR REALM. BRKS IN THE CLDS SHOULD DVLP DURG THE AFTN
AS A CD FNT PUSHES S ACROSS THE RGN.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION INCREASING ACROSS THE TERMINALS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR OR LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. FREEZING RAIN...PARTICULARLY EAST OF I-95 IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD OF LOW CIGS. STRONG WLY/NWLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED AFTER A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS
THE AREA.

.MARINE...

NO PROBS ON THE WATERS TNGT. A WEAK CD FNT WL PUSH THRU THE WATERS
ON SUNDAY BUT WIND GUSTS WL BE CAPPED AT 15 KT. WALKING ACROSS THE
MEMORIAL BRIDGE BTWN ARLINGTON AND DC LAST WWK I SAW PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE UPR PTMC. MODIS IMGRY SHOWS CHES BAY ABV BALTIMORE AND ITS
ERN TRIBUTARIES ARE ALSO ICE CLOGGED.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION MONDAY...MARGINAL SCA CONDS MAY BE MET. STRONG WLY/NWLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY GALES...AFTER A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS
COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/BAJ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KTAE 250851
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
351 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND THIS
AFTERNOON...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH THE AREA...PROVIDING RAIN AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MEXICO BEACH TO
TALLAHASSEE TO VALDOSTA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. TWO POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FOR THE POSSIBLE
EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION ARE DISCUSSED BELOW. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. DRY WX IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE COME TO A CONSENSUS ON
THE MAIN LOW TRACKING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME INTERESTING THINGS WILL HAPPEN SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO TODAY THAT COULD INFLUENCE THE FORECAST LOCALLY.
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...A SUBTLE BUT PERHAPS IMPORTANT ~100
KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK AT 250 MB IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THIS JET AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LATITUDE JET
WILL BE ALIGNED IN A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION FOR RISING MOTION OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THIS WILL BE HAPPENING
NEAR AND OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE LOOP CURRENT WHERE MORE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS EXIST. THE END RESULT WILL LIKELY BE VERY ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN THE FORM
OF A SQUALL LINE AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THESE VERY INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THEY MAY ACT TO LOWER PRESSURES AND
DEVELOP A MESO-LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SQUALL LINE THAT MAY
DISRUPT OUR LOCAL MOISTURE INFLUX TO SOME EXTENT. IN THIS FIRST
SCENARIO...THE END RESULT WOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AND A REDUCED CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS LOCALLY SINCE ALL OF THE
THERMODYNAMICS AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE WOULD
BE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

HOWEVER...IF THAT DEVELOPMENT IS DELAYED SLIGHTLY...THEN
FAVORABLE LIFT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LATITUDE
JET LOCALLY COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
LOW COULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP FURTHER NORTHWARD INITIALLY. IN
FACT...OUR LOCAL 4 KM WRF IS SHOWING A RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOOKING
QLCS SQUALL LINE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH FLOW OFF THE COOL SHELF
WATERS OF APALACHEE BAY. THE LOCAL WRF...WHICH ASSIMILATES THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODIS SST DATA...DOES NOT SHOW ANY SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND REGION...THE LOCAL
HIGH RES WRF ACTUALLY MANAGES TO DEVELOP UPWARDS OF 500-800 J/KG OF
SBCAPE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS HAPPENS IN THE MODEL
BECAUSE IT HAS THE SURFACE WINDS IN THAT AREA MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
THAN DUE SOUTHERLY...WHICH KEEPS THE SURFACE FLOW TRAJECTORY MORE
AWAY FROM APALACHEE BAY AND ALLOWS A RICHER INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM
THE FL PENINSULA. THIS IS A MUCH MORE THREATENING SCENARIO WHERE WE
END UP WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS THAT COULD
LOCALLY ENHANCE HELICITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING QLCS SQUALL LINE.

AS WITH MOST CONVECTIVE SITUATIONS...IT IS HARD TO SAY WHICH
SCENARIO WILL HAPPEN DUE TO THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES OF EXPLICITLY
FORECASTING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING
THE MORE THREATENING SCENARIO...DO NOT WANT TO DOWNPLAY THE SEVERE
THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND TOO MUCH AND HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS IN THE AREAS THAT SPC
HAS HIGHLIGHTED UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...AS WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING DURING THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...THE AIR MASS BUILDING
IN BEHIND TODAY'S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OF CONTINENTAL
ORIGIN AND NOT ARCTIC LIKE SO MANY OF THE PRECEDING SFC RIDGES SO
FAR THIS WINTER. THEREFORE...AFTER A COUPLE OF COOL DAYS IN THE
SHORT TERM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ONLY LIGHT FREEZES
EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS...A VERY WELCOME MODERATING TREND IS NOW EXPECTED FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THIS PERIOD...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE FROM THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY...TO THE
BALMY MID TO UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE 00 UTC GFS AND
THE OLDER 12 UTC ECMWF... BUT MAINLY JUST IN THE POP
CATEGORY...WITH THE MILD WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE. THE ECMWF HAS
A VERY WET SOLUTION FOR TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS WOULD ARGUE FOR
HIGHER POPS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE POPS
TO THE FCST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW END
POPS IN THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED.
AS FOR THE NEXT POTENTIAL ARCTIC OUTBREAK WE HAVE BEEN KEEPING AN
EYE ON...IT STILL COULD VERY WELL BE IN THE CARDS FOR NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS PLENTY OF ARCTIC AIR IN NW CANADA IS
STILL WAITING FOR AN OPPORTUNITY TO PLUNGE SE BACK INTO THE SE
U.S.

.AVIATION...
IT WILL CERTAINLY BE A MUCH MORE CHALLENGING AVIATION FCST TONIGHT
THAN IT WAS AT THIS SAME TIME ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS NOW GETTING ORGANIZED JUST OFF THE SW
COAST OF LA MOVES E-NE THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY. AS THIS LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE
WEST...A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL OUT IN
ITS ADVANCE DUE TO A PERIOD OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT.
INITIALLY...THIS RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AT TIMES
AND SHOULD FALL FROM MAINLY VFR LEVEL CIGS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS SHOULD
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS
THE HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
(WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER AT TLH AND VLD) ACCELERATE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE RAIN
LINGERING AFTER 00 UTC WED IN MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN AFTER THE RAIN
ENDS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG
AFTER THE LOW MOVES THROUGH...SO TIMING THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ON WED. SHOULD BE QUITE CHALLENGING AS WELL.

.MARINE...
AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...AND ABOVE
NORMAL TIDES TO THE MARINE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN WILL LIKELY END
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH...LIKELY AT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE SURF
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME. THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST
TIDES 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON COASTAL RESIDENTS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN POSSIBLY LINGERING WELL INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE...THE NEXT AIR MASS BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS
LOW WILL LIKELY ONLY BE DRY ENOUGH TO POSE A THREAT TO THE FL BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE...AS THE CRITERIA OF SUB 35 PERCENT RH OVER FL
WILL BE EASIER TO REACH THAN THE MORE DIFFICULT SUB 25 PERCENT
REQUIREMENT FOR OUR AL AND GA ZONES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 63 48 56 30 56 / 100 40 10 0 0
PANAMA CITY 62 46 54 34 54 / 100 40 10 0 0
DOTHAN 51 41 52 31 54 / 100 40 10 0 0
ALBANY 50 42 51 29 54 / 100 40 10 0 0
VALDOSTA 61 50 57 34 57 / 100 60 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 68 52 62 32 58 / 100 80 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 64 49 57 35 55 / 100 50 10 0 0

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL
WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA
FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO
KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA
TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO
APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA
TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...DVD
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...GOULD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KLOT 220914
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
314 AM CST SAT JAN 22 2011

.DISCUSSION...
853 PM CST

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO UP POPS TO LOWER
END LIKELY NUMBERS MUCH OF THE FA AS FEEL WILL BE STILL BE A
MINOR...NUISANCE EVENT BUT WITH ENOUGH LOWER AND MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND RESULTING LIFT OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROF TO LIKELY LEAVE BEHIND AT LEAST A
TENTH OF AND INCH SF AND A HUNDREDTH LIQUID EQUIVALENT. NOT A
WHOLE LOT MORE EXPECTED WITH GRIDDED SNOWFALL FORECAST TOTALS
RANGING FROM 0.1-0.2 ACROSS THE IND COUNTIES OF THE FA UP TO
0.6-0.8 ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

INITIALLY CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM OR NEAR CALM WINDS
ALLOWED SOME LOCATIONS TO DIP BACK BELOW ZERO BUT WITH CLOUDS
SPREADING W TO E ACROSS MOST ALL OF NORTHERN IL AS 9 PM CST AND
SURFACE FLOW STARTING TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY TEMPS
ALREADY REBOUNDING.

TRS

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
310 PM CST

THE WEATHER SITUATION WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS SHAPING UP TO BE
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CONUS...WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
ERN PACIFIC AND WEST COAST...AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS...AN NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE PATTERN WILL BRING
PERIOD CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
AS A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND APPROACHES THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING IL/IN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF WHILE
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO TO THE
MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVE TO THE EAST...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY SETTING
UP A PATTERN OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WHILE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP AGAIN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE RESULTANT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY DURING THE FIRST
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR
AROUND 03Z AND HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO ARND -3F WEST OF THE FOX
VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. WITH WINDS BECOMING
VERY LIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO DROP MUCH LOWER THAN -10
TO -15F AT THE TIME MIN TEMP. SO...HAVE NO PLANS FOR ANOTHER WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

THE NEXT WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN LESS ORGANIZED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH IS ACTUALLY 2 SEPARATE SHORTWAVES...ONE TRACKING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER TRACKING INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. THESE 2 SHORTWAVES ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN
UNPHASED...WITH THE NRN WAVE LOOKING TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA REMAINING CUT OFF FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
TO WRN GULF COAST...ANY PCPN WILL BE THE RESULT OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FORCING SQUEEZING OUT THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO REACH THE I-39 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN
STEADILY SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO A COUPLE
TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...INDUCING A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUNDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE SFC LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WEAK ELY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN FORCING FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FOR NERN ILLINOIS...PARTICULARLY LAKE COUNTY AND NRN COOK COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND...THOUGH REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO ARND 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS. BY MONDAY...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 20S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE A NEAR BALMY UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SHOULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
EARLY NEXT WEAK...BUT AGAIN...ANY ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT.

KREIN

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* ONCL -SN THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR VSBYS
* MVFR CIGS DEVELOP THIS AM AND CONTINUE INTO AFTERNOON

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLIDE SE AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A WEAK ELEVATED LOW PRESSURE PUSHING EAST FROM THE
DAKOTAS. AS THE HIGH PRES DEPARTS THE REGION...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK FROM THE SW TO S. CIGS WILL STEADILY LWR AS ADDTL
MOISTURE POOLS EAST FROM APPROACHING UPPER LVL LOW PRES. LGT SN
HAS CONTINUED TO FALL ACROSS MANY UPSTREAM LOCATIONS IN
IA/SOUTHERN MN/FAR NW ILLINOIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION. EXPECT LGT SN TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN IL
AIRFIELDS...WITH PSBLY A 08-12Z WINDOW OF STEADIER SN. IT
CURRENTLY DOESN/T APPEAR VSBYS WILL REDUCE TO 3SM...SO HAVE HELD
VSBYS AT 4SM WITH THE STEADIER SN BTWN 10-12Z. WITH HOW DRY THE
ATMOS CURRENTLY IS...SN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN POWDER FORM OR
FLUFFY SN. CIGS WITH THIS AREA OF SN SHUD REDUCE TO ARND 2KFT AGL.
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWLY BACKED OFF ON A QUICK EROSION OR PROGRESSIVE
DRY AIR ARRIVAL...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR A
RETURN TO VFR CIGS. HAVE HELD ONTO REDUCED CIGS OR MVFR THRU 16Z
FOR MOST AIRFIELDS. WINDS THEN TURN W/NW AFT DAYBREAK SAT.

BEACHLER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/BRIEF IFR VSBY IN -SN THRU EARLY AM
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS THIS AM
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 06Z...

SUNDAY...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH LGT SN.
MONDAY...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH LGT SN.
TUESDAY...EARLY LGT SN AND MVFR TRENDING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.

BEACHLER

.MARINE...
314 AM CST

NO GALES CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH 1ST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A FRESH
SW WIND THIS MORNING WILL VEER NW TODAY WITH WEAK FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND VEER AROUND THE COMPASS
SUNDAY AS NEXT LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL
CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO FRESHEN UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE
WINDS SUBSIDE AND BECOME WESTERLY IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE MODIS IMAGERY FROM UNIV OF
WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE WAVES FROM NSH
FORECAST AS MAJORITY OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE NOW ICE COVERED.

IZZI

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KRAH 290804
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EST WED DEC 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM / THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

THIN CIRRUS AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVERHEAD TODAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE THE REGION. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD LIE DIRECT OVER THE CWA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING..THEN SHIFT TO THE COAST TONIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED TO
CAPTURE THE DEPTH OF MIXING WITH RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT...AND
THUS MOST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS VERIFIED TOO COOL RECENTLY.
HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE A WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH SLIDING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LIMIT WARMING TO ONLY A
COUPLE DEGREES OVER TUESDAYS VALUES. BASED ON MODIS VISIBLE
IMAGERY...SNOW COVER REMAINS GREATEST ALONG I-95 AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...WITH LESS COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TRIANGLE. HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS TO BE
RELATIVELY COOLER IN WHATS LEFT OF THE SNOW COVER...WITH HIGHS OF
45-52.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MS VALLEY REGION...DEAMPLIFYING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SE. WHILE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...THE LOWEST 10-12K FT
LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE DRY. QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...SO HAVE GONE CLOSER TO WARMER MET GUIDANCE WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST...25-29 EAST TO WEST.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TOP THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND CROSS
VA THURSDAY. WITH A CONTINUED LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MODEL
QPF MOST ROBUST OVER NORTHERN VA...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ON FRIDAY....AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND THEN EJECTS NE INTO THE MIDWEST. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WITH THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOIST
WARM ADVECTION AND STRATUS LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND AND DEEPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST TO THE TN
VALLEY REGION.. IN THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY FRIDAY...WITH LOWS AROUND
30...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT (NEW YEARS EVE):
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY AS AN H5 TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SOUTH/SE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES THU NIGHT...
PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY FRI/FRI NIGHT. THIS
WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON
FRIDAY...WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES REBOUNDING TO ~1340 METERS 12Z
FRI...FURTHER INCREASING TO ~1350 METERS FRI EVENING. THIS SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...DEPENDING
ON CLOUD COVER...WHICH SHOULD BE INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY FRI IN
ASSOC/W INCREASINGLY SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL ZONE MOVING
INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WILL FCST HIGHS RANGING FROM 56-61F (5-10F
ABOVE NORMAL). EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY FRI NIGHT IN
ASSOC/W STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM PRECIP ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILL BE IN
THE TN/OH VALLEY BY 12Z SAT. EXPECT RELATIVELY BALMY LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S...WARMEST WEST/SW AND COOLEST EAST/NE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IN THE TN/OH VALLEY 12Z SAT IS PROGGED
TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SAT EVENING
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE
LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS...THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
20-40 METER 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS SAT INTO SUN.
THIS...ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ASSOC/W
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF THE NECESSARY
'INGREDIENTS' FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AS IT
PUSHES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW
0.10-0.25" OF QPF OVER CENTRAL NC...PRIMARILY SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NO CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK
DYNAMICS AND POOR LAPSE RATES. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO AHEAD AND
INCREASE POPS ON SAT NIGHT/SUN TO 50%. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST CONDITIONS ON BOTH SAT/SUN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS 10-15F ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. LOCATIONS IN THE
SANDHILLS/SE COASTAL PLAIN COULD SEE TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
DESPITE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA...LOWS SAT NIGHT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 50S OWING TO A RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGHS SUNDAY SOMEWHAT TRICKY...DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME...WILL SHOW HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S N/NW AND LOWER 60S S/SE FOR SUN. EXPECT A COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
WILL TREND TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL RUN FOR THE FORECAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA MON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON TUE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO GEN UP A WEAK COASTAL LOW MON/TUE...HOWEVER...
THIS IS A PRETTY WEAK/SUBTLE FEATURE TO EXPECT THE MODEL TO HANDLE
EVEN REMOTELY WELL AT THAT TIME RANGE. EXPECT TEMPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY
ON MON/TUE...WITH HIGHS NEAR 50F AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. -VINCENT

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS
TODAY WILL BE THICKENING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. CEILINGS WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 THOUSAND
FEET ON THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE PREDAWN THURSDAY MORNING.

IFR/LIFR VISBYS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MORE
LIKELY ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...MLM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KABQ 011020
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 AM MST WED DEC 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUDINESS TO PASS OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COLORADO
BORDER. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OVER THE PEAKS NEAR THE BORDER
BUT CHANCES PRETTY SLIM...GIVEN THE LOW DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD START A MORE VIGOROUS WARMING TREND
TODAY...AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HELP. EXPECT SOME BREEZINESS IN
THE USUAL EAST SLOPE LOCATIONS TODAY. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE LESS
CLOUDS AND MORE WARMING AS THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT OVER
THE STATE. THIS TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES MURKIER DAY BY DAY. THE RIDGE
RULES SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE TRACKING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST LEAVES BEHIND A VIGOROUS COLD
FRONT...WHICH OOZES SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
A COOLDOWN COULD OCCUR AS SOON AS SATURDAY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER
BUT WESTERLY WINDS MAY ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO ERODE A BIT. THE REAL
PLUNGE IN TEMPERATURES MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
STUCK WITH THE GFS FOR THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PLENTY OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE. THE GFS TRACKS A
DISTURBANCE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY...WHICH MIGHT HELP
DRAW AN EASTERLY WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND SPREAD THE
COLDER AIR MASS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS FARTHER WEST. THE DGEX IN
PARTICULAR HAS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...SOME OF WHICH REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. IN ANY
EVENT...TEMPERATURES MODIFY BY WEDNESDAY UNDER WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALL AIRPORTS. NO AVIATION WEATHER
HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A 1016MB LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS HAS ALLOWED WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO DOMINATE THE AREA...THUS TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER
AND WINDS SLIGHTLY BREEZIER. AN ISOLATED AREA OF MARGINAL CRITICAL
FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BTWN CLINES CORNERS...VAUGHN...SANTA
ROSA...AND LAS VEGAS BY LATE THIS MORNING HOWEVER NO FIRE WX
HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE ISSUED. MELTING SNOWPACK EVIDENT ON THE 2013Z
MODIS 1KM VISIBLE IMAGERY TUESDAY IN NEARLY THE EXACT SAME AREA WILL
MITIGATE SURFACE FUEL DRYNESS. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 20-25
PCT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO 10-15 PCT ACROSS THE SOUTH. VENT
RATES TODAY WILL BE POOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
WHERE FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED.

THE UPR LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE FROM NW FLOW TODAY TO WESTERLY
THURSDAY AND LIGHT SW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MAINLY PERSISTENT PATTERN OF LIGHTER WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS
AND MIDSLOPE TEMPERATURE INVERSION PATTERNS AT NIGHT. VENT RATES WILL
BE POOR MOST AREAS AND NEAR FAIR ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. MIN RH VALUES
WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE AND RANGE FROM NEAR 25 PCT ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER TO 10 PCT ACROSS THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD
OVER THE NW HALF AND FAIR FOR THE SE HALF.

BY SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED AGAIN WITH THE GFS THE FASTER
SOLUTION AND THE EUROPEAN MUCH SLOWER. BIG DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT
WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RESPECT
TO A SURFACE FRONT OVER THE EAST. IT DOES APPEAR THE NORTHERN MTS DO
STAND THE CHANCE FOR SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT ATTM.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 43 18 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 42 14 46 16 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 44 15 49 16 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 48 13 54 17 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 48 15 51 16 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 48 14 54 20 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 47 15 56 20 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 59 22 65 26 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 40 12 43 13 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 25 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 50 22 54 24 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 12 48 18 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 36 10 40 11 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 40 14 44 14 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 45 11 50 15 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 50 20 54 22 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 50 16 57 19 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 49 22 53 24 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 49 21 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 50 25 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 28 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 51 21 56 24 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 22 56 25 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 52 19 57 22 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 24 55 25 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 54 24 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 47 21 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 49 20 52 25 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 48 19 55 23 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 49 25 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 51 24 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 56 23 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 53 20 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 49 15 52 21 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 53 19 56 21 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 54 20 58 23 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 25 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 56 28 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 55 25 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 59 23 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 60 24 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 60 26 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 59 25 60 27 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 61 26 62 28 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 26 66 27 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 65 26 72 26 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 59 24 66 27 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 57 24 64 27 / 0 0 0 0

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 080919
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
319 AM CST MON NOV 8 2010

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
INITIAL SURGE OF ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN SCT-
BKN CS ACROSS WI OVERNIGHT. MORE SCT CS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM CLOSER
TO STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN ERN SODAK. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DOES SHOW WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RH OVR ERN NE INTO WRN IA.
LOW LEVELS REMAIN PARCHED THIS PERIOD...BUT ENUF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND ELEVATED MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT FEW-SCT CS AND
PERHAPS SOME HIGHER AC TODAY AS SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
WRN WI/MN. SHOULD STILL MANAGE M/S CONDITIONS HOWEVER WITH WARM
AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING MIXING TO 925H. EXPC TEMPS TO STILL CLIMB A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ON SUN MOST AREAS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL COOL LAKESHORE AREAS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN
THE AFTN AS LATEST MODIS/AVHRR IMAGERY HAS SST IN NEARSHORE IN THE
6 TO 10 C RANGE. QUIET TNGT WITH TEMPS SLIPPING BACK TO CLOSER TO
COOLER MAV NUMBERS MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN REPSONSE TO UPPER
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPANNING THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
MILD FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY WILL OFFER SOME
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CWA. BETTER INLAND
MIXING AND LESS LAKE INFLUENCE. WENT WITH ECMWF COMPROMISE APPROACH
ON THE 925 TEMP STRUCTURE WITH NAM LOOKING TOO WARM AND GFS TOO
COLD.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRONGLY NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE DRAWS CLOSER ON EASTERN SIDE OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL TO THE WEST. 850 MILLIBAR LOW LEVEL JET
AXIS WELL WEST OF WISCONSIN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS QUITE PARCHED. WILL GO
WITH THE DRY LOOK FOR WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DEPICTED TO AFFECT AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH NAM
MORE AGGRSSIVE WITH DCVA. NAM ALSO SHOWING MORE COLUMN MOISTURE THAN
THE GFS. EVEN STILL NAM HAS QPF JUST GRAZING THE NORTHERN CWA. FOR
NOW THE SMALLISH POPS ARE STILL OK.

THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM ILLINOIS INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN...INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. 850 RIDGING POKES ACROSS WITH
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY AFFECTING MN INTO NW WI BUT NOT MUCH TO LATCH
ONTO HERE IN SRN WI. ECMWF THROWING OUT LIGHT AND SEEMINGLY RANDOM
QPF INTO SRN WI THOUGH WILL SIDE WITH OTHER MODELS AND KEEP THE DRY
LOOK.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
MODELS SHOW CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER JET AND 850 MILLIBAR
BAROCLINIC ZONE BEING THE MAIN PLAYERS FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO THE 500 MILLIBAR
PATTERN. GFS AND CANADIAN EVOLVE A CLOSED LOW RIGHT ON WI/IL BORDER
12Z SATURDAY WHILE ECMWF SHOWING A NORTHENR STREAM UPPER LOW BEING
DOMINANT WHILE WHISKING A WEAKER REFLECTION OF THE SOUTHERN
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. HPC TENDS TO FAVOR THE LATTER AND
THE ENSEMBLES.

SATURDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW
AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR
THAT ENDS UP GETTING WRAPPED BACK IN. ECMWF IS ACTUALLY COLDER
THOUGH BULK OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY SHIFTED EAST. 850 TEMPS DROP TO
-3 TO -5C BY 00Z SUNDAY BUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS LEFTOVER. MAY
NOT GET THROUGH THIS SYSTEM WITHOUT SEEING SOME FLAKES.

SUNDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW
GFS SHOWS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DUMBBELLING AROUND THE FIRST
WAVE WHILE ECMWF SHOWING A SEPERATE PIECE OF ENERGY HEADING
NORTHEAST IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE
WARMER ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE.

.AVIATION...PASSING CI ASSOCD WITH SHORT WAVE WL CONT TO AFFECT WI TODAY
WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS TNGT AS NRN PLAINS SHORT WAVE PUSHES TO THE
NORTHEAST. LOWER LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY DURING THE PD. VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONT WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE BY AFTN IN EAST.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR
TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 040821
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
321 AM CDT THU NOV 4 2010

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST ON ONSET OF COLDER CONDITIONS AND THREAT OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PICKING UP SHORT WAVE
CIRCULATION NORTH OF MN ARROWHEAD WHICH TRACKS SSE ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN WI TODAY. PWATS AROUND 0.30 INCH AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...HOWEVER FORCING STRONG ENUF TO MAKE USE OF LIMITED MOISTURE
TO ALREADY BE GENERATING -SHRA IN MN ARROWHEAD. STRONGEST FORCING
WITH WAVE WL AFFECT CWA BTWN 15Z AND 21Z TODAY. DURING THIS
TIME...CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WL BE SWEEPING THRU WI.
INCREASING NLY WINDS WL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SWD FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE DELTA-T WL BE INCREASING TO 18 DEGREES. HENCE
LOOKING FOR RAPIDLY INCRNG CLOUDS LATER THIS MRNG. LINGER THERMAL
TROF AND NLY WINDS WL LIKELY RESULT IN CLOUDS LINGERING OVER
PORTIONS OF SRN WI THRU TNGT. 1000-850MB LAYER WINDS REMAIN
NORTHERLY OVER LAKE MI THIS AFTN AND TNGT WHICH WILL KEEP BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHRA OVER LAKE MI AND AREAS DOWNWIND. CAN NOT RULE OUT
-SHRA AFFECTING ERN AREAS OF RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES THIS BEFORE
WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.

CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND THERMAL PROFILE STILL INDICATE POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW MIXED IN WITH POTENTIAL RAIN IN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTN. 3 HOUR PRES RISES OF 2-3MB THIS AFTN AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WL RESULT IN BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION ON
FRIDAY. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI FRI AND FRI NIGHT. ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE
LAKESHORE WILL BE QUICKLY HEADING OFFSHORE DUE TO GENERAL OFFSHORE
WIND DIRECTION EXPECTED. MODEL SNDGS ARE LOOKING MUCH DRIER FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...MEANING ONLY A FEW DIURNAL CU WOULD
BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL
MIXING...AND WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED BEFORE THE CORE OF THE SFC
HIGH GETS IN...SO IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

850MB TEMPS WILL REACH A MIN OF AROUND -8C TO -10C OVER THE CENTER
OF THE CWA RIGHT AROUND 12Z FRI...AND THEN THE CORE WILL SHIFT TO
THE EASTERN CWA BY 18Z. 925MB TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING AROUND -4C IN
THE MORNING...THEN WARMING TO AROUND -2C IN THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOL...IN THE LOW 40S.

THE WARMER AIR DOES NOT START SHIFTING INTO THE CWA UNTIL LATE FRI
NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE WEST.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...BUT BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE STEADY AT THE MID LEVELS. 925MB TEMPS WILL BE A BIT SLOWER
TO WARM...GETTING UP TO AROUND 3C TO 5C BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. MODEL
SNDGS SHOW SOME POSSIBLE HIGH CLOUDS...BUT SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART. AFTER A COLD MORNING START...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT UP TO THE MID 40S EAST AND AROUND 50 WEST.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ON SUN.
925MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO 8C TO 10C /00Z GFS/ OR 10C TO 12C /12Z
ECMWF/ BY SUN AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD GET UP TO 13C TO 16C.
BECAUSE OF THE STRONG INVERSION...MIXING IS ONLY PROGGED UP TO
AROUND 925MB AT THE MOST. WENT WITH THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
MAX TEMPS...UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. THE FCST TEMPS ARE PROBABLY
UNDERDONE...ESPECIALLY IF ECMWF VERIFIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE TOO STRONG...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE.

MODELS SHOW A POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST SUN AND SUN NIGHT. SFC PROGS SHOW A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND QUICKLY MOVING UP INTO MANITOBA AND ONTARIO.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP SOUTHERN WI DRY WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. MAINTAINED DRY FCST FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHERN WI AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR FAIRLY GUSTY SSW WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS SCENARIO
PANS OUT. THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER WINDS ON SUN AND THEN RELAXES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON MON.

TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM ON MON...PROBABLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY.
WENT WITH MIDDLE GROUND OF GUIDANCE...WITH MAX T OF LOW 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TUE-WED FCST. THE 00Z GFS
IS QUICKER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF TO BRING A HIGH AMPLITUTE 500MB
LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO THE MIDWEST. THE GFS SHOWS A STRONG LEADING
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CWA ON TUE...WHICH SPREADS SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS AT LEAST A DAY SLOWER AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE...AND DOES NOT GENERATE PRECIP. CHOSE TO HINT AT PRECIP
POTENTIAL ON TUE WITH SCHC POPS IN FCST. CONFIDENCE LOW.

CONTINUED CHC/SCHC POPS THROUGH WED WITH THE POSSIBLE SFC LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MILD...MAX T EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S.

.AVIATION...EXPC CIGS TO RETURN TO SRN WI THIS MRNG...EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RIDING ON BRISK NORTH WINDS WL
MOVE ACROSS RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...PICKING UP
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO
TNGT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST IN STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROF. FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT TAF SITES BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO GO BEYOND VCNTY REMARK AT THIS TIME.

.MARINE...INITIAL SURGE OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION NOW OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...WL SAG SWD OVER LAKE MI LTR THIS MRNG...SETTING UP STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST MODIS SST IMAGERY VERIFY MID LAKE
BUOY TEMPS AROUND 10 C WITH TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND 6-7 C IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN INCRG WINDS TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS THIS MRNG AND CONTINUE BLUSTERY THROUGH FRI
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR SETTLES OVER
GTLAKES. GRADIENT FINALLY LOOSENS FRI EVE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FARTHER NWD FROM NE CONUS INTO SE CAN. STATUS QUO ON CURRENT SMALL
CRAFT ADVY. FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
OPEN WATERS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

SHORT/LONG TERM...13/MRC
AVIATION/MARINE...11/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT...11/MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS62 KRAH 222336
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
735 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE AND RESULT IN A WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WIND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIR MASS
THROUGH THE AIR COLUMN. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALLS NEAR TO IN EXCESS
OF 30 DEGREES... WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MID 30S MOST AREAS... AND
NEAR 40 MORE URBAN AND SOUTH MOST LOCATIONS. FROST ISOLATED AT BEST
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LESS THAN 85 PERCENT AT SUNRISE.

WARMING CONTINUES WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RISING TO 1375 METERS
OR HIGHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZES AS SURFACE
HIGH EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
BREEZES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INFLUX OF NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE AS
WELL... BUT PERHAPS NOT SIGNIFICANT UNTIL TOWARD DAWN. WE ARE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALLS... AND ON
THE LOW SIDE OF THICKNESS CLIMATOLOGY. LOW TEMPERATURES 45 TO 50...
WITH A RISK OF BEING COOL IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE.

WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST BREEZE NEAR TEN
MPH. ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO REACH FULL SUN POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S... SLIGHTLY COOLER
NORTHWEST.

GOOD WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING LOW STRATUS
AND FOG MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE MIDNIGHT... WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD AT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AIR MASS MOISTENS IN
THE MID LAYERS WITH TIME...BUT CONTINUED OMISSION OF RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT STILL JUSTIFIED.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

OVERVIEW:
ABOVE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST...DUE TO A COMPLICATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PROGGED OVER
THE LOWER 48 NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT:
ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC ON SUN/SUN NIGHT...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS ON MON/MON NIGHT...
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS W/REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO APPROACH THE CAROLINAS OR MID-ATLANTIC
MON/MON NIGHT. AT PRESENT...IT APPEARS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST ON SAT WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
BACKSIDE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT
NIGHT/SUN...THEN TRACK EAST THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OR TN VALLEY SUN
NIGHT/MON MORNING. THERE ARE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS W/REGARD TO THE
TRACK AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS NO SURPRISE
CONSIDERING A PATTERN OF SPLIT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CONUS THIS
WEEKEND...WITH IMPORTANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES (THAT WILL AFFECT THE
EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE) NOT MOVING ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC COAST (BEING SAMPLED BY THE RAOB NETWORK) UNTIL SAT. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST FOR MON/MON NIGHT SHOULD COME INTO BETTER FOCUS
BY SAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS (30-40%) FOR
MON/MON NIGHT. GIVEN A SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST...EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARM ADVECTION
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON/MON NIGHT. HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL HIGHLY
DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. A BLEND OF GFS/NAM/ECMWF 1000-850
MB THICKNESSES GIVES 1390-1395 METERS MON AFT...SUGGESTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. HOWEVER...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF PERVASIVE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP...WILL FCST HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A 10-15 KT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE MON
AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON MIXING...GIVEN A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSLP
GRADIENT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
UNCERTAINTY FURTHER INCREASES IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE
OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CAROLINAS...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARM ADVECTION
DUE TO A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD
INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MODULATED PRIMARILY BY CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP) WITH PRECIP CHANCES TIED TO ANY SHORTWAVES IN SW FLOW
ALOFT AND PERHAPS DIURNAL SHOWERS ASSOC/W AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST
AIRMASS AND WARM ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE (20%) OF SHOWERS TUE THROUGH FRIDAY. W/REGARD TO TEMPS...WILL
FCST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THICKNESSES
REACHING UP TO ~1410 METERS ON WED/THU...WHICH COULD YIELD
RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS PRECIP. THE CURRENT RECORD
HIGH FOR RDU IS 82F ON BOTH WED/27TH AND THU/28TH. -VINCENT

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST
WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
WINDS. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.... A FEW RIPPLES IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY FROM A MODIS SATELLITE PASS SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT CLEAR
AIR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE...BUT OTHERWISE GOOD AVIATION WEATHER IN
STORE. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY...LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP...BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.

MOISTURE RETURN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY LEAD TO MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE
MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...BLS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 160754
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
254 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM...MOSTLY
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY...AND THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
SHEBOYGAN TO WEST BEND TO LAKE GENEVA WHERE THE WINDS ARE WEAKER.
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3/4 TO 2 MILES EXPECTED...BUT NOT DENSE FOG
WHICH STARTS AT 1/4 MILE.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF OHIO RIVER VALLEY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PULL WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI TODAY...IN THE
RANGE OF 12C TO +14C 925 MB TEMPERATURES IN THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF
DRY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH WARMER
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO THE LAKESHORE ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. NO
PCPN EXPECTED WITH FRONT AS MOISTURE LIMITED...WITH BETTER FORCING
STAYING WELL NORTH CLOSER TO SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SUNDAY...SO LOWS AND HIGHS A FEW POINTS LOWER
THAN ON SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST ON
SUNDAY DUE TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

.SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET AIDING ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SHEARED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITH
SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...BUT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN STILL GETTING SOME DIFF/L
VORTICITY ADVECTION. INITIAL PCPN WILL BE VIRGA UNTIL VERTICAL COLUMN
BECOME MOIST. FRONTO-FORCING AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE STILL PRESENT
AS SHORT WAVE SWINGS THRU...WITH LINGERING EFFECTS INTO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

COLD AIR ADVECTION SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. ON TUESDAY A 3RD WEAK
SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH MN INTO IA AND THEN IL...KEEPING
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED LIFT AWAY FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MAYBE SOME
BANDS OF CLOUDS AT MOST FOR SOUTHERN WI.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.

AS WE GO FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MODELS DIFFER ON
AMPLITUDE AND DIGGING STRENGTH OF UPPER TROF OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. GFS IS DEEPER WHILE THE ECMWF IS FLATTER...SLOWER..AND MORE
EAST WITH THE TROF. IF GFS PANS OUT WE WILL HAVE CHANCES OF PCPN AND
MORE CLOUDS WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROF. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN AND NEAR FOND DU LAC AND
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY TO BE CONSISTENT WITH MY NEIGHBORS. OTHERWISE WILL
KEEP PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH THE MAX NUMBERS SLOWLY
WARMING THRU THE 60S FROM WED INTO FRI.

.AVIATION...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY DVLP THIS MRNG IN BRIEF SURGE
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LINGER INTO THE AFTN. FEW-SCT CU MAY ALSO
DEVELOP AS SFC FRONT PASSES THRU THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE...HWVR VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. ONLY PROBLEM IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT KENW
WITH MVFR FOG. EXPC PATCHY FOG AT KENW TO THIN AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THIS MRNG AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASES.

.MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAK
FRONT AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WINDS LTR THIS MRNG...VEERING FROM MOSTLY THE SOUTH TO THE SW.
WINDSPEEDS WILL REMAIN BLO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY. AFTER FROPA
THIS EVE...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR
WARM LAKE SURFACE MAY ALLOW FEW GUSTS TO EXCEED 20KTS...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM SHORE. LAKE SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 14-15C PER LATEST
AVHRR/MODIS IMAGERY. FOR NOW...WL HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT FOR TNGT
AND LET LATER SHIFTS REEVALUATE. PRES GRADIENT LOOSENS SUN MRNG AS
LOW LEVEL ADVECTION BECOMES NEUTRAL.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...34
AVIATION/MARINE...11

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 122007
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
307 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A POTENT 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS WI
TONIGHT. JUST AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH...AND RIGHT ALONG THE SFC
WIND SHIFT...THERE IS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE THAT MAY SQUEEZE SOME MOISTURE OUT OF THE OVERALL
GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. 1930Z VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT FROM LA CROSSE
TO DES MOINES...WITH A STROKE OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING INDICATED
BY THE NLDN JUST WEST OF DES MOINES. THE RUC SHOWS SOME CAPE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY OVERALL LOOK TO THE
FRONT...REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER AND CUT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.
PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY BEHIND THE SFC WIND SHIFT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
TIMING WOULD PUT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN MOVE THEM ACROSS THE CWA UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. UPDATES WILL BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING AS THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHERN
WI ON WED. 850MB TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5C
RANGE...AND 925MB TEMPS ARE EXECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 9 OR 10C.
SNDGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT A VERY DRY PROFILE.
THERE LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLITY FOR AT LEAST STRATOCU AROUND 5000 FT
ACROSS THE CWA ON WED AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WOULD
BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW...PROBABLY IN NORTHEASTERN WI.
THEREFORE...REMOVED POPS FOR WED. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE HERE AND THERE. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
MIN TEMPS EXPECTED AROUND 40.

THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY
MAXIMUM SHIFTING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN ONTARIO...UPPER MI...AND
LOWER MI THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GFS AND NAM KEEP THE VORT MAX
WELL TO THE EAST OF WI...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS A SOLUTION
THAT CLIPS THE WESTERN CWA. WINDS SHOULD STAY WESTERLY NEAR THE LAKE
WITH THE NAM/GFS...SO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE. KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP
REASSESSING WITH EACH MODEL RUN TO SEE WHICH SCENARIO WILL PAN OUT.
MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WED. MIN TEMPS
EXPECTED AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRI...KEEPING FLOW GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH. THE GFS SHOWS
850MB TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND NAM
DELAY THE WARMING UNTIL FRI NIGHT. THEY KEEP THE CORE OF THE HIGH
OVERHEAD FRI AFTERNOON WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C. SNDGS SHOW A VERY
DRY COLUMN...SO SUNNY SKIES WILL BRING TEMPS IN THE LOWER
60S...WARMER IF GFS SOLN PANS OUT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING 850MB TEMPS OF 11 TO 13C INTO
FAR SOUTHERN WI BY SAT AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A SFC AND UPPER LOW NEAR
HUDSON BAY WILL CROSS WI SAT NIGHT...AND THEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE CWA ON SUN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SCOOTS ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO THE 8 TO 10C RANGE ON SUN...AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD THEN
BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

MODIS SHOWED LAKE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 TODAY. IF
THESE TEMPS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKE...THEN LAKE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN
WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS OFF THE LAKE.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE GFS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
MON...WHICH DEVELOPS A SFC LOW IN THE PLAINS AND TRACKS IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI. THE 00Z ECWMF ALSO SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT IT TOOK ON A DIFFERENT SFC SOLN. THE ECMWF
STALLED AN 850MB FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL
SUN NIGHT...PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS... AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTED IT
SOUTH ACROSS IL ON MON. NOW THE 12Z ECMWF SOLN CAME MORE INLINE WITH
THE GFS...TRACKING PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SFC LOW ON MON.
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FOR MON AND MON NIGHT.

THEN THERE WILL BE A COOLING TREND FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH FCST
850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 0 OR -2C AND DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL REACH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT A SHOWER CAN/T BE RULED OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH FROPA...BUT WITH A
BKN DECK AT THAT TIME. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT
COLUMN QUITE DRY.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...13/MRC
AVIATION/MARINE...10/PC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 100945
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
545 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAINS OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE NEXT THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS ALREADY NR 32F OVR THE N MTNS AS OF 09Z WITH ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GO. IN ADDITION TO AREAS OF FROST
ACROSS THE N MTNS THIS AM...MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY NICELY SHOWING
VALLEY FOG IN THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BURN OFF BY ARND 13Z BASED ON LATEST 3KM HRRR.

UPSTREAM SATL IMAGERY SUGGESTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS IN STORE
FOR THE REGION TODAY...HELPING TEMPS REBOUND FROM THE COOL
MORNING. SREF MEAN 850 TEMPS NR 13C SUPPORT HIGHS FROM NR 70F
NORTH...TO THE U70S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTH.

CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHRA OR TSRA IN THE VICINITY
OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL PA. 03Z SREF
INDICATING CAPES BTWN 500-1000J/KG BY AFTN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES.
HOWEVER...THE LG SCALE FORCING LOOKS WEAK WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
BUILDING EAST INTO THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY CHC OF AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVR THE W MTNS SHOULD FADE AFTER
SUNSET AND LOSS OF SFC HEATING. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
UNEVENTFUL AND MILDER THAN SAT NIGHT...AS HIGHER DWPTS PUSH BACK INTO
THE REGION ON LIGHT SW FLOW.

QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVR CENTRAL PA MONDAY...PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVR THE
GRT LKS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH LG SCALE FORCING TO RESULT IN
A BETTER CHC OF SHRA/TSRA THAN TODAY. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS OF
NR 40PCT ACROSS THE N TIER BASED ON EXPECTED POSITION OF FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED LOW LVL CONVERGENCE. STEEP LPS RTS AND INCREASING MID
LVL FLOW SUPPORT THE SLIGHT CHC OF SVR WX ISSUED BY SPC FOR MONDAY
AFTN. A FAIR AMT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MIDDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S /PERHAPS L80S SOUTHERN
VALLEYS/.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO SPEED OF GRT LKS SHORTWAVE
MON NITE AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...BULK OF ENSEMBLE DATA SEEM TO
SUGGEST THE 00Z GFS IS A SLOW OUTLIER. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD
A SREF/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH PUSHES FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MON NITE AND EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK WAVE RIDING ALONG FRONT WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN PA MON NITE.
FOCUS OF SHRA THEN SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN PA EARLY TUESDAY WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT REACHING THE MASON DIXON BY AFTN.

LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND CAA BEHIND FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A MUCH COOLER TUESDAY...ESP NORTHERN PA WHERE READINGS NOT LIKELY
TO GET OUT OF THE 50S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS WILL BUILD OVR CENTRAL
PA ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY SUPPLYING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS. HOWEVER...COOLER AND CLOUDIER CONDS APPEAR ON
THE HORIZON FOR LATE WEEK AS LONG WAVE PATTERN FEATURES RISING
HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND A CORRESPONDING FALL
IN HEIGHTS OVER THE ERN CONUS.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES...BUT ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIGGING TROF
OVR THE GRT LKS THURS/FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHC OF SHRA BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO DROPPED DAYTIME TEMPS TO BLW NORMAL
READINGS FOR LATE WEEK. A RETURN TO MILDER AND MORE SETTLED CONDS
APPEARS LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT.

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD LAYER IN THE LOWER FEW THOUSAND FEET TODAY...WITH JUST
A FEW HI CLDS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...A NICE EARLY FALL DAY.

THERE COULD BE SOME FOG BTWN 9 AND 13Z ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
LOOK THIS OVER BEFORE I SEND THE 12Z PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE...MID AND HI CLDS INCREASE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY...
AS COLD FRONT TRIES TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH...AND A SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER ON MONDDAY...THEN
MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ON WED.

OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR TODAY. MVFR CONDS IN WIDESPREAD SHWRS LATE MON
NITE...ESP WRN SXNS.
TUE...MVFR/VFR CONDS EARLY TUE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE.
WED...VFR.
THU...MVFR/VFR CONDS IN SHOWERS EARLY...IMPROVING TO
VFR LATE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-037-
041-042.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...MARTIN

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 020917
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
517 AM EDT SAT OCT 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEKEND...BECOMING
A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OF PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HI PRES RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN PA PROVIDING THE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS CONDUCIVE FOR RADIATION FOG THIS MORNING. LATEST
MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF DENSE FOG
IN THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. LATEST LAV
GUIDANCE AND HRRR SFC RH SUGGEST FOG BURNS OFF BY ARND 13Z. BFD
CURRENTLY DOWN TO 34F. HOWEVER...MESONET OBS GENERALLY WARMER...SO
ANY FROST WILL SHOULD BE PATCHY AT BEST.

UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE WORKING ACROSS THE GRT LKS
ARE CURRENTLY PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHRA FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
WESTWARD THRU ILLINOIS. INCREASING ISENT LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO A QUICKLY THICKENING CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE
NW HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS...LIKELY
HOLDING TEMPS IN THE 50S. BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT...HAVE INTRODUCED
A CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. IN CONTRAST...MSUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE SE PENN ZONES SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS NR NORMAL
WITH AFTN MAXES IN THE U60S.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHRA SHOULD GRIND TO A HALT TONIGHT...AS
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH AND BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVR OHIO.
ALL MDL DATA SHOWING ASSOCIATED LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS
TRAINED OVR WESTERN PA TONIGHT...SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVR
WARREN CO. WEAKENING SFC RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL PA SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY TONIGHT. COOLEST TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS
THE MTNS N OF IPT...WHERE SKIES REMAIN PTCLDY AND DRY AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE. CAN/T RULE OUT A TOUCH OF FROST UP THERE WITH
MINS IN THE M30S.

AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVR THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...SECONDARY
COASTAL LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS...DRAWING INCREASINGLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW INTO SOUTHERN
PA. ANY SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AN
INCREASING CHC OF SHRA ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BY LATE SUNDAY. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT COOLER
THAN TDY WITH MAXES FROM L50S NW MTNS TO M60S SUSQ VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN SYNC WITH EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW OVR
THE OHIO VALLEY...ONLY GRADUALLY LIFTING THIS SYSTEM NORTHEAST OF
PA BY THURSDAY. OPER GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN LIFTING
UPPER LOW OUT TOO EARLY. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD A WETTER AND
COOLER FCST MON-WED. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF UPPER LOW SHOULD
PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN OVR THE STATE. ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM WON/T LIKELY HAVE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED OF THURSDAY/S
SYSTEM...THE LONG DURATION COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. LATEST GEM/EC BLEND SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES IS
QUITE POSSIBLE. WARMER AND DRIER CONDS APPEAR LIKELY TO RETURN BY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT.

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER SHORT WAVE DIGGING SE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS WE HEAD INTO SAT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE TONIGHT THOUGH...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG MAINLY IN THE NW
AND CENT MTNS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE W/NW.

AS S/W APPROACHES...VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS NW MTNS WILL QUICKLY
THICKEN DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE SE WILL SEE
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...AND TREND TOWARD AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIFT INTO THE NW MTNS SAT EVE AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES A BIT...BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR TO MVFR. SCT SHOWERS...ACROSS WESTERN HALF.
MON...VFR CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
TUE-WED...MVFR...IFR POSS EAST. SCT SHOWERS MAINLY EAST.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...CERU/RXR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 122027
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

POCKET OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN NORTHEAST IOWA MARKING VORTICITY
MAXIMUM THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER BETWEEN
21Z AND 03Z MONDAY. SOME MODELS CARRYING LIGHT QPF INTO FAR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTION OF WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION REFLECTED
IN ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 305K SURFACE. CAPE AROUND 400 J/KG ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE ORDER OF 100MB...HIGH BASES TO
THE CLOUDS AND LACK OF RADAR RETURNS OR GROUND REPORTS DEPTH OF DRY
AIR FROM SURFACE TO 10K FT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY THIS EVENING.

NEUTRAL TO WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN CONFLUENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP MONDAY DRY. MIXING UP TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
AROUND +9C IN THE NORTH AND +11C SOUTH WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S NORTH...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NEXT SHORT WAVE BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
REACHES WESTERN CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY...THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY. DRY EASTERLY FEED AROUND SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIMIT SHOWERS TO
THE FAR SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE BEST LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MAX. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP
MONDAY NIGHT...AND AMOUNT OF WARMING ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AGAIN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND TUESDAY WAVE
LIMITING MIXING UP TO 925MB TEMPS OF 12C TO 13C SO MID 60S HIGHS
REASONABLE. EAST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY INCREASE IN
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
LOW.

UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LITTLE TO NO ELEVATED
CAPE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 6C OR LESS...BUT WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDER TO ACKNOWLEDGE DYNAMIC LIFT AND POSSIBLE STEEPER
LAPSE RATES WITH VORTICITY MAX PASSING OVER REGION. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE IN FOR THURSDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT ON
ECMWF. MODELS AGREE THAT A 850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP
OVER SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL FOR THE THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS ABOUT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND VORTEX CROSSING ONTARIO...AND TIMING OF
BACKED FLOW OVER NEARLY STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE IN RESPONSE TO
EACH WAVE. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...AND
THEN CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR STALLED BOUNDARY
BEING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A
SUBTLE LOW PRES TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS WOULD CROSS THE CWA FROM 22Z TO
02Z. HOWEVER...DOUBTING THAT ANY SHOWER/TSTORMS WILL COME OUT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE MORNING.
A FEW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BEHIND A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LATER TNGT INTO MON. HOWEVER...THE ADVECTION
WILL NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUNCH THROUGH THE STABLE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION DUE TO COLDER NEARSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
SHORE. WITH SEA SFC TEMPS JUST BEYOND 5NM IN THE WARMER LOW TO MID
60S PER RECENT AVHRR/MODIS IMAGERY...GUSTS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVY LEVELS MON AFTN TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
PORT WASHINGTON.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...09
AVIATION/MARINE...13

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 120825
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWER CHANCE TONIGHT THEN HANDLING
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH MIDWEEK SYSTEM.

TODAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
WATER VAPOR/RUC SHOW STRONG NW UPPER FLOW WITH MAIN VORTICITY ACTION
MOVING SE FROM CANADA TO THE U.P. BY 00Z MONDAY. 850 WARM AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN. 925 TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 20C DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH FULL SUN WILL LEAN TOWARDS WARMER MAV GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH NAM SHOWING HIGHER CAPE
DUE TO INFLATED PROGGD SURFACE DEW POINTS. NAM ALSO SHOWING A BETTER
SURGE OF 850 DEW POINTS REACHING INTO SOUTHERN WI WITH CLOSER
PROXIMITY OF 850 THERMAL RIDGE. GFS/ECWMF HAVE BETTER MOISTURE AND
THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF WI. WILL GO WITH VERY SMALL POPS NEAR
THE ILLINOIS BORDER THIS EVENING.

MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BENIGN NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES DRAWAING
CLOSER FROM MINNESOTA AND IOWA. OVERALL NEUTRAL ADVECTION.

TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
EXPECTING THE DRY LOOK TO PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
DOMINATE. WAA PRECIP GETS GOING TO OUR WEST. ALL MODELS FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IOWA. NAM/ECMWF MOST AGGRESSIVE ON ADVANCING THIS
INTO EXTREME SW WI BY 00Z WEDNESDAY BUT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER
LOOK OF THE GFS/CANADIAN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
00Z ECMWF HAS PULLED BACK SLIGHTLY ON EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING
LOW FROM THE PLAINS. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLY QUICKER WITH
BRINGING IN THE ISENTROPIC INDUCED PRECIP. THERE ARE ALSO FURTHER
EAST WITH LOW CENTER. GFS QUITE A BIT SLOWER. CANADIAN A COMPRMISE
SOLUTION. WILL NEED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE VARYING
SOLUTIONS. GREATEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIP COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AS THE GFS CATCHES UP THE ECMWF SOLUTION. CONSISTENCY
THERE TOO. WILL STOP JUST SHORT OF GOING LIKELY FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LAPSE
RATES NOT GREAT...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF GRIDS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. LOW PASSES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY WITH PRECIP
LINGERING. MORE SOUTHERN POSITION OF ECMWF LOW CENTER WOULD FAVOR A
LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE. SO HIGHEST POPS THURSDAY MORNING THEN
GRADUALLY TRIMMING THEM INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PD. FEW-SCT CU THIS AFTN.
THINKING NAM OVERDOING AMOUNT OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LATER
THIS EVE ASSOCD WITH BRIEF BURST OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. MAY BE PD
OF MID LEVEL CLDS ASSOCD WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF WK
LOW PRES TROF BUT THINKING BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLD -SHRA WL BE SOUTH
OF TAF SITES.

.MARINE...W-SW SFC WNDS GUSTING TO 13 TO 18KTS THIS AFTN SHOULD BE
STRONG ENUF TO PREVENT LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING.. .WITH ABOUT 4MB
ISOBAR SPACING ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR TO THE SHORE FROM IL/WI
BORDER TO GRB. WEAK SFC TROF PUSHES ACRS LAKE MI THIS EVE AS SFC
WNDS VEER TO NW. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION INCRS BEHIND THIS
TROF LATER TNGT INTO MON...HWVR ADVECTION NOT STRONG ENUF TO PUNCH
THRU STABLE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO COLDER NEARSHORE WATERS...
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO SHORE. WITH SST TEMPS JUST BEYOND 5NM IN THE
WARMER LOW TO MID 60S PER RECENT AVHRR/MODIS IMAGERY...GUSTS WL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS MON AFTN TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR
AVIATION/MARINE...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 070139
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
840 PM CDT MON SEP 6 2010

.DISCUSSION...STRONGEST FORCING REMAINS JUST NORTHWEST OF
CWA...HOWEVER MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG NEGATIVELY TILTED COLD
FRONT TO ALLOW SEVERAL STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS TO AFFECT WEST NEXT
FEW HOURS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COMING TOGETHER AT LEAST BRIEFLY
IN WEST AND WITH WMFNT IN VCNTY...WL NEED TO WATCH FOR ISOLD TORNADO
THREAT. OTRW...WIND ADVY STILL A GO. ONE SNAG WL BE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS THAT ROTATES AROUND LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLY REDUCING
MIXING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

.MARINE...PEAKS AT MODIS IMAGERY OF SST OVER NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN REVEALING STRONG UPWELLING HAS TAKEN PLACE IN THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH LAKE MI TEMPS POSSIBLY IN THE 50S. HENCE STRONGER
INVERSION NOT ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF SURFACE TO MIX DOWN.
HOWEVER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN MN. HENCE WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY AS
WINDS EXPCD TO INCREASE LATER TNGT. NO CHANGE TO START TIME OF GALE
WARNING AT THIS POINT AS WELL.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
052-056>060-062>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 280821
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
421 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS
WEEKEND WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. AT TIMES
A 5940 M CONTOUR...INDICATIVE OF A HEAT WAVE...WILL BE OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY SWEEP THRU THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11-3.7U MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF FOG FORMING IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON OBS FROM
YESTERDAY AND LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE...EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF BY
14Z. SINKING AIR BENEATH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES LATER TODAY. SREF MEAN 850 HPA TEMPS NEAR 15C
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS BTWN 80-85F...ACCOMPANIED BY LOW HUMIDITY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HI PRES AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A
COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY DENDRITIC FOG PATTERN IN THE DEEP STREAM/RIVER
VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVR PA ON SUNDAY. SREF
MEAN 850 HPA TEMPS RISE TO ARND 18C...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS BTWN
85-90F UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG AND PERSISTENT RIDGE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TO BEGIN THIS
PERIOD WITH GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST BY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...TO BE SUPPLANTED BY DRY AND COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW. FOR MUCH
OF THE TIME...IT APPEARS THIS WARM SPELL WILL FEATURE UNCHARACTERISTICALLY
LOW HUMIDITY AND VERY LIGHT WINDS.

LATEST MED RANGE MDL DATA ALL SEEM TO INDICATE EARL WILL RE-CURVE
AWAY FROM E COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE
ENTERING THE GRT LKS. FURTHER WEST...GEFS KEEPING PA FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN ANOMALOUSLY LOW PW OF LESS THAN 1 INCH UNDER THE 594
DM 500 MB CENTER. HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
NW MTNS LATE WED AND THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH "RING OF FIRE" ON
PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE.

RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY LATE WEEK...ALLOWING A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE PICTURE BY LATE THU OR FRIDAY. GEFS PLUME DATA
INDICATES MOST OF CENTRAL PA WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THIS FROPA FOR
IT/S NEXT CHC OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER...UNIMPRESSIVE PWATS SUGGEST
SIG RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY.

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.

ONLY PROBLEM FOR AVIATION WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CIGS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN PA LATE TONIGHT...WITH
KBFD/KIPT THE TWO LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. AT BFD...
EXPECT VSBY AND CEILING TO DROP TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD JUST BEFORE 12Z. AT IPT...VSBYS MAY NOT DROP BELOW MVFR...
BUT EXPECT A LOW /IFR/ CIG TO DEVELOP BRIEFLY TOWARDS SUNRISE.

ONCE ANY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF...EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

AFTER A RETURN OF SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SAT NIGHT...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /SUN-WED/ LOOKS RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG/LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS.
MON-WED...GENERALLY VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR/EVANEGO

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 271058
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
658 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE NORMALS FOR THE WHOLE WORK WEEK. VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE COOL EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG ENHANCEMENT OF THE IR SHOWS FOG STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE NORTH. DEWPOINT PUSHING STEADILY DOWN AT
KBFD...WITH AIR TEMP DOWN TO 43F ALREADY. WITH MORNING DEWPOINTS
IN THE 40S-L50S AND RAPID MIXING...THE FOG SHOULD BURN AWAY IN A
HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE. THEN...SUNNY. SFC ANTICYCLONE CENTERS
ITSELF OVERHEAD TODAY. 8H TEMPS DO NOT MOVE MUCH UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...AND WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THUR. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THUR AND TODAY WILL BE THE LACK OF CLOUDS TODAY AND A
DEEPER MIXED LAYER - PERHAPS UP TO 800MB TODAY. THIS SHOULD HELP
MOST SPOTS TO GET A FEW DEGS WARMER TODAY THAN THUR...ESP THE HILL
TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. BUT DRY ADIABATIC MIXING UP
TO 800MB ONLY GIVES THEM LOWER 70S AT BEST.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER TERRIFIC RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. NO
CLOUDS...NIL WIND AND EVER-LESSENING SOLAR TIME. UPPER 30S
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE NRN MTS. NOT QUITE COOL ENUF TO SWEAT
ABOUT A FROST ADVY...BUT 10-12F BELOW NORMS. 8H TEMPS DO RISE A
FEW DEGS OVERNIGHT...BUT DECOUPLING WILL HAVE ALREADY TAKEN PLACE.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SFC WILL STAY IN IT/S SPOT OVER THE ERN US...AND THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL JOIN IT BY SAT NIGHT/SUN. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY...AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND.

VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN FORM IN THE NRN AND CENT MTS EARLY SAT WITH
A LARGE SPREAD IN STREAM WATER TEMPS AND AIR TEMP. .

8H TEMPS CONTINUE TO NUDGE UPWARD...REACHING +16C LOCALLY BY SAT
AFTN. BEST WARMING WILL BE TO OUR W AND N AS RIDGE DIRECTS WARMEST
AIR INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ERN CANADA. MAXES WILL GET ABOUT 5F
ABOVE NORMS SAT AND ANOTHER 5 OR 6F HIGHER ON SUN. MUCH OF THE SE
WILL HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT 90F WITH 8H TEMPS UP TO +20C. MIN TEMPS
SUN AM SHOULD ALSO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SAT AM. THIS AND THE
FACT THAT THE AIR IS JUST SO PARCHED SHOULD LEAD TO LESS OF THE
VALLEY AREAS GETTING FOGGED IN ON SUN AM.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
HOT WEATHER FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MID-WEEK. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE LATE AUGUST
CLIMATOLOGY...RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 80S OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS
AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE WEST-COAST TROUGH FCST TO EJECT NEWD
INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BY WED-THUR. HPC
MANUAL PROGS SHOW AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TUE-WED AND APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA THUR-FRI. THIS
TIMING IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE 12Z GFS/GEFS
AND OP ECMWF/CANADIAN.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING...THEN
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRING OF NEARLY CLOUDLESS DAYS AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN
OFF BY ARND 14Z.

DRYING GROUND AND MILDER NIGHTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS
WIDESPREAD FOG THIS WEEKEND WITH CENTRAL PA TERMINALS LIKELY
REMAINING FOG FREE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 251928
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
228 PM CDT WED AUG 25 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WEATHER QUIET AS UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS REGION.

THICKER BAND OF CU TO THE NORTH MARKING SECONDARY COLD FRONT/DEW
POINT FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE I-94 CORRIDOR AROUND 21Z AND CLEAR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AROUND 23Z...A TREND HANDLED WELL BY NAM
1000-850MB RH FORECASTS.

TONIGHT...WILL HAVE A CLEAR COOL NIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S INLAND...AND
N-NE GRADIENT WINDS OFF THE UPPER 60 LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES
INDICATED BY THE MODIS SEA SFC TEMPERATURE IMAGERY HOLDING LAKESHORE
TEMPS UP. LOWER DEW POINTS ADVECTING IN OFF-SET BY WARM GROUND TO
KEEP TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT ANY FOG TO
RIVER VALLEYS AND LAKES.

THURSDAY...DRY AIR AND SUNNY SKIES WILL LEAD TO A QUICK REBOUND OF
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO THE DEPTH OF
MIXING...BUT 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN 16 AND 17C WILL YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW OFF THE LAKE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEGINNINGS OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL
RAISE TEMPS/DEW POINTS. ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND GRADIENT WIND OVERNIGHT...GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE MID
50S REASONABLE. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FRIDAY AS 925 TEMPS WARM TO
20-21C WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND BACK OF SFC HIGH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

ONLY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED ARE FOR TEMPERATURES AND TIMING OF THE
NEXT RAIN CHANCE. UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND THEN AMPLIFY AND
EXPAND OVER THE WEEKEND IN BLOCKY PATTERN AS WESTERN TROUGH DEEPENS
AND TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC PHASES WITH SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING 925/850MB TEMPS
SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S HIGHS FROM SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. FORCING STAYS OFF TO THE WEST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHORT WAVE FLATTENS RIDGE WITH A SURFACE
LOW TRACKING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO HUDSON BAY THAT BRINGS COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. GFS MUCH FASTER WITH AN INITIAL WAVE...AND
THEN BRINGS SECOND LOW THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WILL TREND
TOWARDS ECMWF/HPC TIMING THAT BRINGS PCPN CHANCE INTO FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT WILL LINGER A SLIGHT CHANCE
ON WEDNESDAY TO ACKNOWLEDGE GFS POTENTIAL.

.AVIATION...SCT CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH
SKIES CLEARING THIS EVE AND REMAINING CLEAR THROUGH THU. NWLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW GUSTS
OF UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS
AFTER SUNSET AS AN INVERSION SETS IN. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THU.
LAKE BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MKE AND ENW THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE LAKE WILL LEAD TO
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...PRODUCING NWLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS
LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL SHIFT NLY AS A SECONDARY SURGE
OF LOW LEVEL COOL AIR ADVECTION CROSSES LOWER LAKE MI TONIGHT. A
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION WILL BEGIN DECREASING THE
WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO THU...THOUGH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR THE OPEN WATERS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...09/REM
AVIATION/MARINE...22/ASEARS/MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS63 KMKX 250728
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
228 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2010

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...ALONG
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR...NOT EXPECTING MUCH THAN A FEW
AFTERNOON CU WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT. SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY
TODAY WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF 15-16C HOLDING HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL KEEP FOG
LIMITED MAINLY TO RIVER VALLEYS AWAY FROM THE LAKE. LEANED TOWARD
THE MET FOR LOW TEMPS...AS MAV NUMBERS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AMOUNT
OF COOLING DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS.

ANOTHER GREAT DAY IN STORE THURSDAY...AS SFC HIGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD...WHILE UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE EAST DUE
TO EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE...AND A BIT WARMER IN THE WEST WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS. KEPT AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS THURSDAY
NIGHT..WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN.

THE SFC HIGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST ON FRIDAY...BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH
INCREASED HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO SRLY FLOW ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE
HIGH...SHOULD SEE A GOOD JUMP IN HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY...CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EXTENDED...KEEPING UPPER
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. PERSISTENT
SRLY FLOW AND HIGH HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
WARM...AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS TO CREEP BACK UP. WENT HIGHER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND...AS MODEL 925 MB TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS NEAR 90 ON SUNDAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE...AS WAVES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL RIDE UP OVER STUBBORN
RIDGE.

.AVIATION...

.AVIATION...SCT VFR CU EXPCD LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN AS COOLER AIR
CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO SRN WI. MAY BE BRIEFLY BKN BUT TOO MUCH DRY
AIR ALOFT TO ENTRAIN FOR CIGS TO LAST FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. DRY
ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP LATER THIS MRNG AS WELL
WHICH WILL ALLOW NW GUSTS TO REACH 20 KNOTS FOR A TIME. WIND SPEEDS
WL SETTLE TO BLO 10KTS THIS EVE AS SHALLOW INVERSION DVLPS.

.MARINE...LATEST MODIS AND AVHRR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW NEARSHORE
SST IN THE 66 TO 71 DEGREE RANGE...WITH MID 70S AT MID-LAKE. LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WL
ALLOW NW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTN. A FEW GUSTS
INTO THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTH TNGT WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COOL AIR ADVECTION
CLIPPING LOWER LAKE MI. GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE TOWARD
THE OPEN WATERS WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE SHORE. WIND SPEEDS
SETTLE DOWN ON THU AS SFC HIGH PRES APPROACHES.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

SHORT/LONG TERM...DDV/07
AVIATION/MARINE...MBK/11

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 200927
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
527 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
COMING WEEK. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH PA OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
CUTTING OFF AS A CLOSED LOW OVR THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ARRIVE AROUND
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING DWINDLING CONVECTION ALONG WEAKENING COLD
FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE NY/PA BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING SHORTWAVE ROTATING ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WHICH HAS BEEN
PROVIDING THE LG SCALE FORCING TO SUPPORT THE CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL PASS INTO NEW ENG...LEAVING
THE DYING COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO CENTRAL PA WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP. BASED ON RUC13 DATA AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WILL MENTION
JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHRA ARND DAWN OVR THE MTNS N OF IPT.

SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY. HOWEVER...LATEST MODIS
IMAGERY AND 3KM HRRR DATA SUGGEST THE FOG WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY MORNING.

LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY DAY. GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF CU SHOULD BE ALONG DYING FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA...WHILE
NORTHEAST PA IS LIKELY TO BECOME MSUNNY WITH ARRIVAL OF NEG PWAT
ANOMALIES LATER TDY. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS FROM U70S
N MTNS...TO NR 90F S TIER VALLEYS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TRANQUIL WX SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PASSES TO OUR
NORTH. THE LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST PA WITH MIN TEMPS IN
THE U40S LIKELY NORTH OF IPT.

SFC HIGH BUILDS SE ACROSS NEW ENG ON SATURDAY...LIKELY KEEPING
MOST OF CENTRAL PA DRY...BUT RESULTING LOW LVL SERLY FLOW SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE MDL 850S TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST.
IN ADDITION...A VEIL OF CIRRUS COULD HOLD TEMPS EVEN LOWER. HAVE
THEREFORE HELD HIGHS NR THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO
OUTPERFORM THE GFS MOS IN COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIOS.

INCREASING LG SCALE FORCING AND LOW LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY TOUCH OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR FAR WEST TOWARDS SAT EVENING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA THE WET WEATHER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT
NITE OR SUNDAY AS A SLOWLY DIGGING UPPER TROF INTERACTS WITH THE
DEEPER RETURNING MOISTURE. THIS IS WHEN WE GET THE PW TO SURGE TO
1 TO 1.5 SDS ABOVE NORMAL TOO.

SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE SUNDAY WITH A
DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME SOAKING RAINFALL GIVEN ANOMALOUS PW OVER
1.5 INCHES. BULK OF MED RANGE MDL DATA NOW COMING IN LINE WITH THE
IDEA OF UPPER TROF CUTTING OFF OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AND CHC OF
SHRA...WHILE LOWERING THE DAYTIME TEMPS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER LOW SHOULD FINALLY BE ABSORBED BY NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF
WORKING INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED THE CHC OF A TSRA
WED WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO BLEND WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES. HOWEVER...LOW PWATS FROM LATEST GEFS SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST.

DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION IN WAKE OF WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONT. LATEST GEFS 850 TEMPS OF
12-14C SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE 70S AND L80S LATE NEXT WEEK WITH LOW
HUMIDITY.

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NY BORDER
EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT BFD.

THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT SINCE TEMPS ARE
NOT DROPPING MUCH...AND FRONT MAY KICK UP A SLIGHT BREEZE
AT TIMES...THINK FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN
YESTERDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS INTO SAT.

IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HOLD OFF TO
SUNDAY. FROM SUNDAY INTO LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUE...LOOKING
AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS...AS SYSTEM TRIES TO CUT
OFF.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...AM FOG...THEN VFR. SCT TSRA PSBL SAT EVENING/NIGHT.
SUN-TUE...MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...MARTIN

----------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS61 KCTP 190922
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
522 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COLD FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND AGAIN AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING MODIS 11-3.78UM IMAGERY SHOWING PATCHY VALLEY FOG
ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WHILE FOG A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE S
TIER...WHERE RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. LATEST 3KM HRRR AND LAMP
GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST FOG WILL BURN OFF IN MOST LOCATIONS BY
13-14Z.

LINE OF BKN CU NOTED OVR NW PA AND S TIER OF NY STATE MARKS THE
LOCATION OF A WEAK TROUGH...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA LATER TODAY ACROSS MTNS OF NE PA. NO SVR WX THREAT
INDICATED...AS MDL CAPES BLW 1000 J/KG AND SHEAR WEAK. ON BALANCE
MSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH A FEW EXTRA CU ACROSS
THE N MTNS. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS NR 17C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
80S.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE NR LK SUPERIOR WILL TRACK ENE RATHER THAN
SE...SO AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES PA TONIGHT IT WILL BE
WITH WANING LG SCALE SUPPORT. 03Z SREF DATA SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHC
POPS AT BEST ALONG THE N MTNS...WITH A DRY FCST FURTHER SOUTH.

SFC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS ARE PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION
WITH A STRETCH OF DRY WX. DESPITE THE EXPECTATION OF A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FRIDAY BASED ON MDL 850 TEMPS...WHICH ONLY
SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE M70S N MTNS...TO M80S LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI NITE LOOKING QUITE COOL ACROSS NORTHERN PA...WHERE GEFS
NEGATIVE PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY...RESULTING LOW LVL SERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER MAX TEMPS THAN 850 TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST. HAVE
THEREFORE LOWERED THE HIGHS TOWARD MET GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO
OUTPERFORM THE GFS MOS IN COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIOS.

AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY/MONDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GRT LKS
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA. OPER AND ENSEMBLE MDL DATA FAIRLY
SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...LENDING INCREASED
CONFIDENCE THAT CENTRAL PA WILL SEE A ROUND OF SHOWERS WORKING
THRU BTWN SAT NITE AND SUN NITE. BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY
COME SUN AFTN WITH BENEFIT OF DIURNAL HEATING.

MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ECMWF ENS MEAN
500 PATTERN SHOWING UPPER TROF SLOWING DOWN OR CUTTING OFF ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE GEFS MORE PROGRESSIVE. HAVE TRIED
TO STRIKE A BALANCE BTWN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...KEEPING A LOW CHC OF
SHRA IN THE FCST ACROSS THE SE ZONES THRU TUESDAY. ARRIVAL OF NEXT
COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY ARND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT THE
NEXT CHC OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE
NR NORMAL.

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY. SOME MID LVL CLDS WILL WORK INTO THE NW MTS
LATER THIS AFT. SOME CLDS MAY GET AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 80.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER AS FAR SOUTH AT ROUTE 6...BUT THE
AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY.

OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING FOG FOR FRI AND SAT...HARD TO SEE
ANYTHING GOING ON. AS I WAS THINKING LAST NIGHT...SHOWERS NOT
REAL LIKELY ON SAT...MORE OF A SUNDAY INTO MONDAY EVENT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
SUN-MON...MVFR AND IFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...MARTIN