{"id":61515,"date":"2024-11-05T01:30:16","date_gmt":"2024-11-05T01:30:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/?p=61515"},"modified":"2024-11-06T04:42:08","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T04:42:08","slug":"rafael-in-the-caribbean","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/archives\/61515","title":{"rendered":"Rafael in the Caribbean"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"752\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1264 \/ 752;\" width=\"1264\" controls loop src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/11\/goeseast_abi_radm1_true_color_night_s20241104194425_e20241104212425_f101.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-East True Color imagery from the CSPP Geosphere site, 1944-2124 UTC on 4 November 2024<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The area of convection that has been percolating within the Caribbean has acquired sufficient organization and speed to be named Tropical Storm Rafael (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/archive\/2024\/al18\/al182024.discus.005.shtml?\">at 2100 UTC on 4 November<\/a>, near the end of the animation, above, created at the <a href=\"https:\/\/geosphere.ssec.wisc.edu\/#playing:true;coordinate:-209779,1710479;zoom:5;coverage:radm1;num_frames:101;start_time:2024-11-04T19:44:00Z;timeframe:Start%20Time;\">CSPP Geosphere site<\/a>). The storm is approaching the island of Jamaica where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.<\/p>\n\n\n<div style=\"width: 2702px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/11\/241104_g16_vis_ir_glm_TS_Rafael.mp4\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/11\/241104_1800utc_g16_vis_ir_glm_Rafael.png\" width=\"2692\" height=\"1676\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">1-minute GOES-16 Red Visible (0.64 \u00b5m, left) and Clean Infrared Window (10.3 \u00b5m, right) images with an overlay of GLM Flash Points, from 1654-2200 UTC on 4 November (courtesy Scott Bachmeier, CIMSS) [click to play MP4 animation]<\/p><\/div>\n<p>1-minute GOES-16 Visible and Infrared images (above) showed Rafael as it intensified from a Tropical Depression to a Tropical Storm by 2100 UTC. Near the center of Rafael&#8217;s circulation there were periodic convective bursts (exhibiting cloud-top infrared brightness temperatures as cold as -88\u00baC), but there was very little GLM-observed lightning activity near the core of the tropical cyclone. Rafael was located just to the west of Buoy 42058, where the Sea Surface Temperature was 86\u00baF.<\/p>\n\n\n<p>Rafael is currently in a region of warm sea-surface temperatures and <a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/11\/tcRafael_Shear_2300UTC_4Nov2024.png\">low shear<\/a> (imagery below is taken from <a href=\"https:\/\/tropic.ssec.wisc.edu\">SSEC\/CIMSS&#8217;s tropical weather website<\/a>), and slow strengthening is forecast as it moves between Jamaica and the Caymans en route to western Cuba.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/11\/tcRafael_SST_1800UTC_4Nov2024.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1074\" height=\"699\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/11\/tcRafael_SST_1800UTC_4Nov2024.gif\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-61531\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">SSTs over the western Caribbean late on 4 November 2024 (click to enlarge)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The area of rich moisture that is supporting Rafael&#8217;s convection has been over the western Caribbean since late October.  The animation for November of TPW from the <a href=\"https:\/\/tropic.ssec.wisc.edu\/real-time\/mtpw2\/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&amp;prod=natl&amp;timespan=24hrs&amp;anim=html5\">MIMIC site<\/a> (<a href=\"https:\/\/ftp.ssec.wisc.edu\/pub\/mtpw2\/images\/tpw_nrl_colors\/natl\/\">online archive<\/a>) is shown below.  Note, however, the relative dryness over the Gulf of Mexico, where Rafael is forecast to be by week&#8217;s end.  The storm would have to overcome a significant amount of dryness to remain intense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/11\/comp20241101.0000_to_1104.2300tpw_anim.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"470\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/11\/comp20241101.0000_to_1104.2300tpw_anim.gif\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-61518\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Total Precipitable Water, 0000 UTC 1 November 2024 &#8211; 2300 UTC 4 November 2024 (click to enlarge)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Advanced Clear-Sky Processor for Ocean (ACSPO) Sea Surface Temperatures from VIIRS, below, shown with I05 (11.45 \u00b5m) data (NOAA-20 data were downloaded at the CIMSS Direct Broadcast site and processed with <a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/cspp\/\">CSPP software<\/a>). Note the lack of convection over the Gulf of Mexico, and the water temperatures. Red in the SST enhancement below is approximately 80<sup>o<\/sup>F. Shelf waters are relatively cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/11\/VIIRS_I05_SST-20241104_1752_to_1937toggle.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1476\" height=\"919\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/11\/VIIRS_I05_SST-20241104_1752_to_1937toggle.gif\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-61521\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">NOAA-20 VIIRS I05 (11.45 \u00b5m) and ACSPO SSTs, 1752 and 1937 UTC on 4 November 2024 (Click to enlarge)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>GOES-East airmass RGB imagery, below, shows Rafael developing within a moist airmass &#8212; that is, a green region within the RGB.  As it moves northwestward, however, the environment becomes less favorable;  this is indicated by  regions with more orange.  (<a href=\"https:\/\/rammb.cira.colostate.edu\/training\/visit\/quick_guides\/QuickGuide_GOESR_AirMassRGB_final.pdf\">Here is a Quick Guide on airmass RGB<\/a>;  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jma.go.jp\/jma\/jma-eng\/satellite\/VLab\/QG\/RGB_QG_Airmass_en.pdf\">here is another one<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/11\/GOES-East_airmassRGB-20241104_1020_to_1105_0050anim.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"638\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/11\/GOES-East_airmassRGB-20241104_1020_to_1105_0050anim-1024x638.gif\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-61523\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/11\/GOES-East_airmassRGB-20241104_1020_to_1105_0050anim-1024x638.gif 1024w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/11\/GOES-East_airmassRGB-20241104_1020_to_1105_0050anim-300x187.gif 300w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/11\/GOES-East_airmassRGB-20241104_1020_to_1105_0050anim-768x478.gif 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-East airmass RGB, 1020 UTC 4 November 2024 &#8211; 0050 UTC 5 November 2024 (click to enlarge)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n<p>===== Late 5 November Update =====<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 2702px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/11\/241105_g16_ir_glm_Hur_Rafael.mp4\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/11\/241106_0020utc_g16_ir_glm_Hur_Rafael.png\" width=\"2692\" height=\"1676\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">1-minute GOES-16 Clean Infrared Window (10.3 \u00b5m) images with an overlay of GLM Flash Points, from 1630 UTC on 5 November to 0130 UTC on 6 November (courtesy Scott Bachmeier, CIMSS) [click to play MP4 animation]<\/p><\/div>\n<p>1-minute GOES-16 Infrared images (above) showed Tropical Storm Rafael as it intensified to a Category 1 Hurricane near the Cayman Islands at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/archive\/2024\/al18\/al182024.update.11060020.shtml?\">0020 UTC on 06 November<\/a>. Cloud-top infrared brightness temperatures associated with convective bursts near the center of Rafael were as cold as -91\u00baC; however, no GLM-detected lightning activity was seen with this convection during that 9-hour period.<\/p>\n<p>A GOES-16 Infrared\/Water Vapor Difference product (below) included an overlay of contours and streamlines of deep-layer wind shear. Rafael continued to remain in an environment of favorably low shear &#8212; and tropical overshooting tops that were likely penetrating the local tropopause were highlighted by increasingly negative values of the Infrared\/Water Vapor Difference product (<a href=\"https:\/\/journals.ametsoc.org\/view\/journals\/wefo\/24\/6\/2009waf2222284_1.xml\">reference<\/a>).<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 1064px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/11\/241105_g16_irWvDiff_shear_Rafael_anim.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/11\/241105_g16_irWvDiff_shear_Rafael_anim.gif\" width=\"1054\" height=\"704\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">GOES-16 Infrared\/Water Vapor Difference product from 2100 UTC on 5 November to 0230 UTC on 6 November, with an overlay of 0200 UTC contours and streamlines of deep-layer wind shear<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n<p>More information on Rafael is available from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\">National Hurricane Cente<\/a>r.  Interests in the northwest Caribbean and in the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this storm.<\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The area of convection that has been percolating within the Caribbean has acquired sufficient organization and speed to be named Tropical Storm Rafael (at 2100 UTC on 4 November, near the end of the animation, above, created at the CSPP Geosphere site). The storm is approaching the island of Jamaica where Tropical Storm Warnings are [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":61528,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76,74,30,78,2,48],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-61515","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-glm","category-goes-16","category-lightning","category-noaa-20","category-tropical-cyclones","category-viirs"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61515","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61515"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61515\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":61564,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61515\/revisions\/61564"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/61528"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61515"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61515"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61515"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}