{"id":59367,"date":"2024-05-20T23:59:00","date_gmt":"2024-05-20T23:59:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/?p=59367"},"modified":"2024-05-21T14:24:52","modified_gmt":"2024-05-21T14:24:52","slug":"phs-model-output-during-day-1-of-week-2-at-hwt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/archives\/59367","title":{"rendered":"PHS model output during Day 1 of Week 2 at HWT"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A WRF model run that includes assimilated Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) satellite sounder data (fused with ABI data) is being evaluated at the Hazardous Weather Testbed (Blog posts from forecasters at HWT are here<\/a>). On 20 May 2024, the PHS model output included convective development over the eastern Plains of Colorado, as shown in the animation below of model Composite Reflectivity at hourly time-steps. The screenshots below are from AWIPS; model output is also available here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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PHS model output of Composite Reflectivity, hourly from 20 UTC 20 May through 00 UTC 21 May 2024 (Click to enlarge)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The PHS model accurately predicted convective initiation, as shown in the (hourly) animation below of GOES-East visible imagery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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GOES-East Band 2 (0.64 \u00b5m) Visible Imagery, 20-23 UTC on 20 May 2024 (Click to enlarge)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The three toggles below compare the forecasts of Composite Reflectivity and Visible Imagery at 2000, 2100 and 2200 UTC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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PHS 3-h forecast of Composite Reflectivity and GOES-East Band 2 (0.64 \u00b5m) Visible Imagery, 2000 UTC on 20 May 2024<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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PHS 3-h forecast of Composite Reflectivity and GOES-East Band 2 (0.64 \u00b5m) Visible Imagery, 2100 UTC on 20 May 2024<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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PHS 4-h forecast of Composite Reflectivity and GOES-East Band 2 (0.64 \u00b5m) Visible Imagery, 2200 UTC on 20 May 2024<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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Based on the forecast, a LightningCast monitoring point was created where the model forecast initiation (approximately 39.7o<\/sup>N, 104.7o<\/sup>W; National Weather Service forecasters have the ability to request monitoring points to supplement the airports\/stadiums that are done routinely and are available at this website<\/a>). That LightningCast probabilities are shown below for the point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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GOES-East and GOES-West LightningCast Probabilities for a point in eastern CO where the 17z and 18z PHS model runs predicted Convective Initiation (Click to enlarge)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The animation below shows the Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB and the LightningCast Probability contours over eastern CO (figure above and animation below courtesy John Cintineo, NSSL).<\/p>\n\n\n\n