{"id":57799,"date":"2024-03-27T20:42:21","date_gmt":"2024-03-27T20:42:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/?p=57799"},"modified":"2024-05-01T14:04:00","modified_gmt":"2024-05-01T14:04:00","slug":"tools-for-forecasting-clouds-on-april-8th","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/archives\/57799","title":{"rendered":"Tools for Forecasting Clouds (on April 8th)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Depending on the needed lead time, there are many ways to estimate the cloud cover on a given day\/time. This includes climatology, long-range (global) models, shorter-range (regional) models and then satellite and other measurements.  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nesdis.noaa.gov\/events\/noaa-celebrates-the-light-and-embraces-the-dark\">April 8th<\/a> is a day of increased interest for cloud forecasts. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/fwd\/eclipse2024\">WFO at Fort Worth (TX) <\/a>will be providing cloud forecasts, starting on <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NWSFortWorth\/status\/1772676131453313331\">March 29th<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"720\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1280 \/ 720;\" width=\"1280\" autoplay controls loop src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/03\/band3EclipsewithCONUS.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-16 ABI band 3 loop from August of 2017 with meso and CONUS sectors. (Credit: J. Feltz, UW\/CIMSS).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Climatology<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>When one is weeks, months or years out, then climatology is the only option for a idea how cloudy a region might be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Solar eclipse 2024 weather prospects: Q&amp;A with an expert <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tZBSdefNBS\">https:\/\/t.co\/tZBSdefNBS<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/66lUQeQGip\">pic.twitter.com\/66lUQeQGip<\/a><\/p>&mdash; SPACE.com (@SPACEdotcom) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SPACEdotcom\/status\/1768971196341580245?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 16, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The above figure (from this <a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/archives\/57278\">UW\/CIMSS Satellite Blog<\/a> post) is apparently &#8220;&#8230; all over the internet, showing the cloud climatology (or the study of climate) over the past 28 years compiled from GOES&#8221;.  Or a <a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2023\/04\/SE_VIS_path_1979_2023_loop_slower.mp4\">loop of each April 8th geostationary image since 1979.<\/a> Of course these aren&#8217;t forecast, just what has happened in the past. There are several other similar climatologies, based on <a href=\"https:\/\/eclipsophile.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/April-NoAm-cloud.png\">MODIS<\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Climatologist49\/status\/1644705051846541314\">re-analyzed data<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Long-range (global) models<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Once the event is within a week or so, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aos.wisc.edu\/weather\/Models\">long-range global NWP<\/a> offer some guidance regarding locations of low pressure areas and some fronts, links of NOAA forecasts out to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aos.wisc.edu\/weather\/wx_models\/avn_12UTC_index.shtml\">5<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/tempest.aos.wisc.edu\/wxp_images\/gfs104_12UTC_python\/gfs104_crhli.html\">8 days<\/a>.  A page (by Tomer Burg) with <a href=\"http:\/\/arctic.som.ou.edu\/tburg\/products\/realtime\/eclipse\/\">ensembles of NWP cloud forecasts<\/a>. Cloud forecasts, by Fort Worth (TX) NWS will be starting on <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NWSFortWorth\/status\/1772676131453313331\">March 29th<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Shorter-range (regional) models <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Once the target date is within a few days, higher resolution regional models will offer guidance. Most numerical prediction models do not include the effect of the reduced solar radiation associated with a total solar eclipse, but we know that the reduced surface heating can decrease clouds such as fair-weather cumulus. NOAA&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/rapidrefresh.noaa.gov\/hrrr\/HRRR\/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_ncep_jet\">HRRR model<\/a> (&#8220;total cloud cover&#8221;) is one that apparently will take this eclipse into account. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Each NWS <a href=\"https:\/\/graphical.weather.gov\/sectors\/southplains.php?element=MaxT\">WFO<\/a> also offers a short-term cloud cover forecast (mouse over &#8220;sky cover&#8221; and then the times to the right). Or these <a href=\"https:\/\/graphical.mdl.nws.noaa.gov\/sectors\/sectorDay.php?view=public&amp;sector=conus&amp;element=Sky\">experimental pages<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Satellites<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The day of the event, one can look at many observations, those from satellite include NOAA&#8217;s GOES ABI, from many sources (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov\/GOES\/conus_band.php?sat=G16&amp;band=GEOCOLOR&amp;length=24\">NOAA<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/geosphere.ssec.wisc.edu\/#coordinate:432507,2883383;zoom:2.6;\">geosphere<\/a>, (<a href=\"https:\/\/rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu\/?sat=goes-16&amp;sec=mesoscale_01&amp;x=1001&amp;y=999.2666625976562&amp;z=0&amp;angle=0&amp;im=12&amp;ts=1&amp;st=0&amp;et=0&amp;speed=130&amp;motion=loop&amp;maps%5Bborders%5D=white&amp;p%5B0%5D=band_03&amp;opacity%5B0%5D=1&amp;pause=0&amp;slider=-1&amp;hide_controls=0&amp;mouse_draw=0&amp;follow_feature=0&amp;follow_hide=0&amp;s=rammb-slider&amp;draw_color=FFD700&amp;draw_width=6\">M1<\/a>), <a href=\"https:\/\/rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu\/?sat=goes-16&amp;sec=full_disk&amp;x=10848&amp;y=10848&amp;z=0&amp;angle=0&amp;im=12&amp;ts=1&amp;st=0&amp;et=0&amp;speed=130&amp;motion=loop&amp;maps%5Bborders%5D=white&amp;p%5B0%5D=geocolor&amp;opacity%5B0%5D=1&amp;pause=0&amp;slider=-1&amp;hide_controls=0&amp;mouse_draw=0&amp;follow_feature=0&amp;follow_hide=0&amp;s=rammb-slider&amp;draw_color=FFD700&amp;draw_width=6\">slider<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/re.ssec.wisc.edu\/?products=G16-ABI-CONUS-BAND13-GRAD.100&amp;center=39.89062156612945,-93.00837716482786&amp;zoom=5&amp;width=1120&amp;height=715&amp;basemap=bw&amp;labels=line&amp;view=leaflet&amp;collection=RealEarth&amp;timeproduct=G16-ABI-CONUS-BAND13-GRAD&amp;timespan=-6t&amp;animationspeed=50&amp;animate=true\">RealEarth<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/data\/geo\/#\/animation?satellite=goes-16&amp;end_datetime=latest&amp;n_images=4&amp;coverage=conus&amp;channel=13\">SSEC<\/a>). <a href=\"http:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/goes\/goesdata.html\">Many links can be found to GOES animations<\/a>. Which spectral bands or combinations to use depend on the time of day, etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course if one doesn&#8217;t see the Sun from the Earth during the eclipse due to heavy cloud cover, one can always see the <a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/archives\/category\/solar-eclipse-shadow\">moon&#8217;s shadow on the Earth<\/a> from GOES and other satellites. including the <a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2017\/08\/170821_goes16_truecolor_eclipse_anim.gif\">eclipse from 2017<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The SUVI on the GOES also allows for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/data\/geo\/#\/animation?satellite=suvi-goes-16\">routine images of the Sun<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;69dd96a65337f&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"69dd96a65337f\" class=\"wp-block-image size-large wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1024\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/03\/suvi-goes-16_2024079_2017_FE131FE195HE303_sun-1024x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-57825\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/03\/suvi-goes-16_2024079_2017_FE131FE195HE303_sun-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/03\/suvi-goes-16_2024079_2017_FE131FE195HE303_sun-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/03\/suvi-goes-16_2024079_2017_FE131FE195HE303_sun-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/03\/suvi-goes-16_2024079_2017_FE131FE195HE303_sun-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/03\/suvi-goes-16_2024079_2017_FE131FE195HE303_sun.jpg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A RGB composite of 3 SUVI spectral bands via the UW\/SSEC web page. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/science.nasa.gov\/resource\/2024-total-solar-eclipse-safety-sheet\/\">Be safe<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">H\/T<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks to the UW-Madison, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/\">SSEC<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/datacenter\/\">SSEC Data Services<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aos.wisc.edu\/weather\/\">UW\/AOS<\/a>. Thanks also for the <a href=\"https:\/\/eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov\/SEgoogle\/SEgoogle2001\/SE2024Apr08Tgoogle.html\">Eclipse Predictions<\/a> by Fred Espenak, NASA\u2019s GSFC. And thanks to those who have blogged regarding this 2024 event. Several of the images in this blog were made using <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/mcidas\/software\/x\/\">McIDAS-X<\/a>. Some models forecast out to <a href=\"https:\/\/tempest.aos.wisc.edu\/wxp_images\/gfs104_12h_12UTC_python\/gfs104_crhli.html\">16 days<\/a>, but the question is to what skill level for clouds. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/~tims\/\">T. Schmit<\/a> works for NOAA\/NESDIS\/STAR and is stationed in Madison, WI. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Depending on the needed lead time, there are many ways to estimate the cloud cover on a given day\/time. This includes climatology, long-range (global) models, shorter-range (regional) models and then satellite and other measurements. April 8th is a day of increased interest for cloud forecasts. The WFO at Fort Worth (TX) will be providing cloud [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":57970,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,74,114],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57799","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general-interpretation","category-goes-16","category-goes-18"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57799","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57799"}],"version-history":[{"count":22,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57799\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":58883,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57799\/revisions\/58883"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/57970"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57799"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57799"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57799"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}