{"id":56837,"date":"2024-02-05T16:24:16","date_gmt":"2024-02-05T16:24:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/?p=56837"},"modified":"2024-02-06T19:02:53","modified_gmt":"2024-02-06T19:02:53","slug":"tropical-cyclone-in-the-south-pacific-ocean","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/archives\/56837","title":{"rendered":"Tropical Cyclone Nat in the South Pacific Ocean"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/a>
GOES-178 Clean Window (Band 13, 10.3 \u00b5m) infrared imagery, hourly from 2000 UTC on 4 February 2024 – 1500 UTC on 5 February 2024 (Click to enlarge)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Abundant convection over the southern Pacific Ocean<\/a> has organized into a tropical cyclone (named Nat) as the system moved to the east of the Samoan Islands. GOES-18 infrared imagery, above, shows the strong convection that developed just east of Olosega; by 0700 UTC on 5 February 2024, very cold cloud tops (brightness temperatures cooler than -90o<\/sup>C) appeared near 14o<\/sup>S, 165o<\/sup>W (shown here<\/a>) as the system moved steadily to the east.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The tropical cyclone developed in a narrow ribbon of low shear values that have persisted for at least the 24 hours ending at 1200 UTC on 5 February, as shown in the analysis below from the CIMSS Tropical Cyclone<\/a> page (direct link to product<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
Computed 850-200 mb shear values, every 3 hours from 1200 UTC 4 February 2024 to 1200 UTC 5 February 2024 (Click to enlarge)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sea-surface temperatures under the system are very warm, around 30o<\/sup>C. The projected path, however, take the storm poleward towards cooler SSTs. In addition, the path takes the storm where observed shear values at present quite high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
SST Analysis, 2234 UTC on 4 February 2024, along with the forecast path of the Tropical Storm (Click to enlarge)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

MIMIC Total Precipitable Water fields (from this site<\/a>), below, show a cyclonic spin developing just east of the Samoan Islands as the storm develops. A second invest area exists near 150 W, to the east of the Tropical Cyclone, and another tropical invest is near Vanautu at 160 E. (Click here<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
MIMIC Total Precipitable Water fields, 1600 UTC 4 February 2024 – 1500 UTC 5 February 2024 (Click to enlarge)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Regional Specialized Meteorology Center (RSMC) in Fiji (link<\/a>) is issuing advisories on this storm, as shown below. The forecast path is towards the east-southeast towards 20o<\/sup>S latitude. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (link<\/a>) is also issuing advisories (here is the 1500 UTC 5 February 2024 graphic<\/a>). Some strengthening is forecast for 5-6 February, with slow weakening after that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
Screen capture from the Fiji RSMC, ca. 1330 UTC on 5 February 2024 (Click to enlarge)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

More information on this Cyclone is available at the CIMSS Tropical Website<\/a>, at the JTWC<\/a> and at the RSMC in Fiji<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Abundant convection over the southern Pacific Ocean has organized into a tropical cyclone (named Nat) as the system moved to the east of the Samoan Islands. GOES-18 infrared imagery, above, shows the strong convection that developed just east of Olosega; by 0700 UTC on 5 February 2024, very cold cloud tops (brightness temperatures cooler than […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":56840,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,114,79,2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-56837","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general-interpretation","category-goes-18","category-microwave","category-tropical-cyclones"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56837","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56837"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56837\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":56934,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56837\/revisions\/56934"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56840"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56837"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56837"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56837"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}