{"id":56411,"date":"2024-01-12T23:59:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-12T23:59:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/?p=56411"},"modified":"2024-01-17T21:57:03","modified_gmt":"2024-01-17T21:57:03","slug":"lightningcast-lead-time-with-a-winter-storm-affecting-the-midwest-and-great-lakes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/archives\/56411","title":{"rendered":"LightningCast lead time with a winter storm affecting the Midwest and Great Lakes"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><div style=\"width: 1725px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/01\/240112_goes16_infrared_glmFlashExtentDensity_IL_anim.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/01\/il_fed-20240112_090617.png\" width=\"1715\" height=\"830\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">GOES-16 &#8220;Clean&#8221; Infrared Window (10.3 \u00b5m) images centered over north-central Illinois, with an overlay of GLM Flash Extent Density and plots of 15-minute METAR surface reports from 0701 UTC to 1316 UTC [click to play animated GIF | <a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/01\/240112_goes16_infrared_glmFlashExtentDensity_IL_anim.mp4\"><strong>MP4<\/strong><\/a>]<\/p><\/div>GOES-16 <em>(GOES-East)<\/em> &#8220;Clean&#8221; Infrared Window (<a href=\"http:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/goes\/OCLOFactSheetPDFs\/ABIQuickGuide_Band13.pdf\"><strong>10.3 \u00b5m<\/strong><\/a>) images that included an overlay of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goes-r.gov\/spacesegment\/glm.html\"><strong>GLM<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/rammb.cira.colostate.edu\/training\/visit\/quick_guides\/GLM_Quick_Guide_Gridded_Products_June_2018.pdf\"><strong>Flash Extent Density<\/strong><\/a> <em><strong>(above)<\/strong><\/em> revealed intermittent clusters of lightning activity across parts of north-central Illinois &#8212; many of which occurred in the general vicinity of METAR sites that were reporting moderate to heavy snow &#8212; during the hours prior to and around sunrise on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/dailywxmap\/index_20240112.html\"><strong>12 January 2024<\/strong><\/a>. Near the end of the animation period, isolated lightning signatures were also seen along the Iowa\/Illinois border and in the Chicago area. Although a few METAR sites occasionally reported lightning in the distance, none of the sites explicitly reported thundersnow.<\/p>\n<p>GOES-16 Infrared + Flash Extent Density images that also included contours of <a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/severe_conv\/pltg.html\"><strong>LightningCast<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0Probability\u00a0<em><strong>(below)<\/strong><\/em> showed that the LightningCast tool generally performed fairly well, with probability values frequently in the 25-50% range in advance of many of the larger Flash Extent Density episodes across Illinois.<\/p>\n<p><div style=\"width: 1725px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/01\/240112_goes16_infrared_glmFlashExtentDensity_lightingCast_IL_anim.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/01\/il_lcast-20240112_095617.png\" width=\"1715\" height=\"830\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">GOES-16 &#8220;Clean&#8221; Infrared Window (10.3 \u00b5m) images centered over north-central Illinois, with an overlay of GLM Flash Extent Density, contours of LightningCast Probability\u00a0 and plots of 15-minute METAR surface reports [click to play animated GIF | <a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/01\/240112_goes16_infrared_glmFlashExtentDensity_lightingCast_IL_anim.mp4\"><strong>MP4<\/strong><\/a>]<\/p><\/div>A closer view of GOES-16 &#8220;Red&#8221; Visible (<a href=\"http:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/goes\/OCLOFactSheetPDFs\/ABIQuickGuide_Band02.pdf\"><strong>0.64 \u00b5m<\/strong><\/a>) and Infrared images centered over the Chicago area <em><strong>(below)<\/strong><\/em> showed the isolated GLM Flash Extent Density event that occurred around 1311 UTC (just before sunrise). Again, no nearby METAR sites explicitly reported thundersnow.<\/p>\n<p><div style=\"width: 1725px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/01\/240112_goes16_visible_infrared_glmFlashExtentDensity_Chicago_anim.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/01\/chi_2p-20240112_131117.png\" width=\"1715\" height=\"828\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">GOES-16 &#8220;Red&#8221; Visible (0.64 \u00b5m, top) and &#8220;Clean&#8221; Infrared Window (10.3 \u00b5m, bottom) images centered over the Chicago area, with an overlay of GLM Flash Extent Density and plots of 15-minute METAR surface reports [click to play animated GIF | <a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/01\/240112_goes16_visible_infrared_glmFlashExtentDensity_Chicago_anim.mp4\"><strong>MP4<\/strong><\/a>]<\/p><\/div>LightningCast Probability values in the Chicago area rose to around 50% at 1241 UTC <em><strong>(below)<\/strong><\/em>, 15 minutes prior to the observed GOES-16 GLM Flash Extent Density event.<\/p>\n<p><div style=\"width: 1725px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/01\/240112_goes16_visible_infrared_glmFlashExtentDensity_lightningcast_Chicago_anim.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/01\/chi_lcast_2p-20240112_124117.png\" width=\"1715\" height=\"828\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">GOES-16 &#8220;Red&#8221; Visible (0.64 \u00b5m, top) and &#8220;Clean&#8221; Infrared Window (10.3 \u00b5m, bottom) images centered over the Chicago area, with an overlay of GLM Flash Extent Density, contours of LightningCast Probability and plots of 15-minute METAR surface reports [click to play animated GIF | <a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/01\/240112_goes16_visible_infrared_glmFlashExtentDensity_lightningcast_Chicago_anim.mp4\"><strong>MP4<\/strong><\/a>]<\/p><\/div>Toward the end of the day, a few bursts of GLM Flash Extent Density were observed over the Detroit, Michigan area <em><strong>(below)<\/strong><\/em>.<\/p>\n<p><div style=\"width: 1725px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/01\/240112_goes16_infrared_glmFlashExtentDensity_MI_anim.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/01\/det_fed-20240112_234617.png\" width=\"1715\" height=\"830\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">GOES-16 &#8220;Clean&#8221; Infrared Window (10.3 \u00b5m) images centered over southeastern Lower Michigan, with an overlay of GLM Flash Extent Density and plots of 15-minute METAR surface reports [click to play animated GIF | <a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/01\/240112_goes16_infrared_glmFlashExtentDensity_MI_anim.mp4\"><strong>MP4<\/strong><\/a>]<\/p><\/div>In this case, thundersnow (TSSN) actually was reported at one METAR site: KDET (Coleman A. Young International Airport, located 6 miles northeast of downtown Detroit), as shown below.<\/p>\n<p><div style=\"width: 1926px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/01\/240112_2346utc_goes16_infrared_glmFlashExtentDensity_kdet_tssn.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/01\/240112_2346utc_goes16_infrared_glmFlashExtentDensity_kdet_tssn.png\" width=\"1916\" height=\"968\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">GOES-16 &#8220;Clean&#8221; Infrared Window (10.3 \u00b5m) image centered over southeastern Lower Michigan at 2346 UTC, with an overlay of GLM Flash Extent Density and a cursor sample of the KDET METAR surface report at 2351 UTC [click to enlarge]<\/p><\/div>However, LightningCast Probability values were lower for these Flash Extent Density events over the Detroit area &#8212; generally remaining at or below 10-25%.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 1725px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/01\/240112_goes16_infrared_glmFlashExtentDensity_lightningCast_MI_anim.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/01\/det_lcast-20240112_224117.png\" width=\"1715\" height=\"830\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">GOES-16 &#8220;Clean&#8221; Infrared Window (10.3 \u00b5m) images centered over southeastern Lower Michigan, with an overlay of GLM Flash Extent Density, contours of LightningCast Probability and plots of 15-minute METAR surface reports [click to play animated GIF | <a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/images\/2024\/01\/240112_goes16_infrared_glmFlashExtentDensity_lightningCast_MI_anim.mp4\"><strong>MP4<\/strong><\/a>]<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>GOES-16 (GOES-East) &#8220;Clean&#8221; Infrared Window (10.3 \u00b5m) images that included an overlay of GLM\u00a0Flash Extent Density (above) revealed intermittent clusters of lightning activity across parts of north-central Illinois &#8212; many of which occurred in the general vicinity of METAR sites that were reporting moderate to heavy snow &#8212; during the hours prior to and around [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":56501,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76,74,30,115,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-56411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-glm","category-goes-16","category-lightning","category-lightningcast","category-winter-weather"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56411","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56411"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56411\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":56500,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56411\/revisions\/56500"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56501"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56411"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56411"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56411"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}