{"id":55700,"date":"2023-11-27T10:41:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-27T10:41:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/?p=55700"},"modified":"2023-11-27T22:44:14","modified_gmt":"2023-11-27T22:44:14","slug":"lightningcast-probability-use-in-the-south-pacific","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/archives\/55700","title":{"rendered":"LightningCast Probability use in the South Pacific"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A series of LightningCast Probability plots from <a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/severe_conv\/pltg.html\">this RealEarth-powered website<\/a>, below, shows increasing probabilities of lightning over the South Pacific to the south of <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/American_Samoa#\/media\/File:Samoa_islands_2002.gif\">American Samoa&#8217;s Manu&#8217;a Islands<\/a>.  The 75% contour (magenta) appears at 0530 UTC; the first GLM observation is shown at 0620 UTC.  LightningCast is the probability that a GLM observation will occur within the next 60 minutes, so this is a good case showing its efficacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2023\/11\/RE_27Nov2023_0450_to_0630UTCstepanim.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1680\" height=\"860\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2023\/11\/RE_27Nov2023_0450_to_0630UTCstepanim.gif\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-55701\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">LightningCast Probability, 0450-0630 UTC on 27 November 2023 (click to enlarge)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The WSO forecast office in Pago Pago was using this product to advertise the danger from lightning, as shown in the screenshot below for their Facebook page (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/NWSPagoPago\/posts\/pfbid0254pueTdVSuNjWA9VKDZwRHA7JTsXSjMqFxMPh4oSiLoZbpwB6KRkpj7yNrTkZ9osl\">direct link to the image<\/a>).  The time of the image below (ca. 0826 UTC) is after the end of the animation above;  the lightning with this convective complex continued for several hours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2023\/11\/AmSamoa_LightningCastPost_27Nov2027.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"621\" height=\"563\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2023\/11\/AmSamoa_LightningCastPost_27Nov2027.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-55702\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2023\/11\/AmSamoa_LightningCastPost_27Nov2027.png 621w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2023\/11\/AmSamoa_LightningCastPost_27Nov2027-300x272.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 621px) 100vw, 621px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">WSO Pago Pago Facebook post from just past sunset on 26 November 2023 (Click to enlarge)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>GOES-18 Level 2 products below (Lifted Index, left, scaled from -5 to 10 and Total Precipitable Water, right, scaled from 1 to 2.5 inches) show that the convection developed in a region where TPW and instability were both increasing to the north.  Knowledge of the distribution of these level 2 products in concert with the development of LightningCast probabilities is a good indicator that convection will develop.  The convection that developed eventually overspread Tutuila;  the airport at Pago Pago received more than 0.5&#8243; of rain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2023\/11\/G18Band13LITPW_rescaled-20231127_0000_to_1000by30stepanim.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2456\" height=\"854\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2023\/11\/G18Band13LITPW_rescaled-20231127_0000_to_1000by30stepanim.gif\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-55709\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-18 Clean Window Infrared (Band 13, 10.3  \u00b5m) imagery overlain with Level 2 Products:  Lifted Index (left, scaled from -5 to 10) and Total Precipitable Water (right, scaled from 1 to 2.5 inches (Click to enlarge)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A series of LightningCast Probability plots from this RealEarth-powered website, below, shows increasing probabilities of lightning over the South Pacific to the south of American Samoa&#8217;s Manu&#8217;a Islands. The 75% contour (magenta) appears at 0530 UTC; the first GLM observation is shown at 0620 UTC. LightningCast is the probability that a GLM observation will occur [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":55704,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76,114,115],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-55700","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-glm","category-goes-18","category-lightningcast"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55700","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55700"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55700\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":55711,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55700\/revisions\/55711"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/55704"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55700"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55700"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55700"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}