{"id":53030,"date":"2023-06-22T06:07:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-22T06:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/?p=53030"},"modified":"2023-06-23T15:36:08","modified_gmt":"2023-06-23T15:36:08","slug":"probsevere-with-large-hail-at-a-red-rocks-amphitheater-concert","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/archives\/53030","title":{"rendered":"ProbSevere with Large Hail at a Red Rocks Amphitheater Concert"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/a>
NOAA\/CIMSS ProbSevere (v3) in RealEarth, 0230-0400 UTC on 22 June 2023 (Click to enlarge)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Large hail caused multiple injuries at the Red Rocks Amphitheater to the west of Denver on 21 June 2023 (News story 1<\/a>, 2<\/a>, 3<\/a>; see also this tweet from the NWS in Boulder<\/a> at 0326 UTC). This occurred in a region that the Storm Prediction Center flagged<\/a> as in an atmosphere with an Enhanced Risk of severe weather. The principal severe threat was hail<\/a>. The animation above shows the RealEarth display of ProbSevere (version 3) and it shows the approach of the radar object that produced the hail; a severe thunderstorm warning was in place. The image below shows the probSevere readout at 0330 UTC; the yellow ‘X’ approximates the location of Red Rocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
RealEarth ProbSevere (version 3) display, 0330 UTC on 22 June 2023. The yellow X approximates the location of Red Rocks.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

ProbSevere allows a readout of the components used in the probability computations. The Radar Object nearing Red Rocks in the image above is #344797 — and time series of the parameters are shown below (available in interactive form here<\/a> for a few days). Hail has much larger probabilities than either wind or tornado in this case. Maximum Expected Hail Size at 0330 UTC was 2.46″.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
ProbSevere Readout, Radar Object 344797 (click to enlarge)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Shortly after 0330 UTC, the radar object associated with the large hail over Red Rocks merged with the radar object to its east, radar object #345162<\/a>, and its time series is shown below. Note the peak in ProbHail probabilities around 0330 UTC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
ProbSevere Readout, Radar Object 345162 (click to enlarge)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

ProbSevere LightningCast Probabilities also showed an enhanced threat of lightning for the hours surrounding the hail event, as shown below. The LightningCast contours shown below are not parallax-corrected (the ABI data are not parallax-corrected either). Thus the features are displayed farther from the sub-satellite point (at 0o<\/sup>N, 75.2o<\/sup>W) than in reality (as discussed here<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
GOES-16 Band 13 Infrared (10.3 \u00b5m) imagery and LightningCast Probability contours, 0011 – 0401 UTC on 22 June 2023 (Click to enlarge)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

This tweet <\/a>describes the ground-based lightning observations near Red Rocks in the hours surrounding the hail event.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Large hail caused multiple injuries at the Red Rocks Amphitheater to the west of Denver on 21 June 2023 (News story 1, 2, 3; see also this tweet from the NWS in Boulder at 0326 UTC). This occurred in a region that the Storm Prediction Center flagged as in an atmosphere with an Enhanced Risk […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":53035,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[115,59,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53030","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lightningcast","category-probsevere","category-severe-convection"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53030","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53030"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53030\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":53089,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53030\/revisions\/53089"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/53035"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53030"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53030"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53030"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}