WTXS31 PGTW 251500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 12.1S 40.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 40.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 12.3S 39.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 12.6S 39.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 12.9S 38.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 13.2S 38.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 251500Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 40.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST OF COMOROS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHEAST MOZAMBIQUE, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A 12NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE. A 251030Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT CORE SURROUNDING A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5/6.5 (102/127 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, AND A 6.0/6.5 (115/127 KNOTS) FROM FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS FORECAST TO ERODE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD DRIFT WITH RAPID WEAKENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK BACK OVER WATER AFTER TAU 72, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY THAT TIME. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AFTER TAU 24 AS REFLECTED IN THE LARGE SPREAD OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN