WTXS31 PGTW 180300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 19.2S 121.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 121.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 20.1S 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 21.4S 122.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 23.0S 122.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 24.7S 123.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 121.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLOUD-FILLED EYE SURROUNDED BY A BROAD EYE WALL WITH DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROOME REVEALS A DEFINED LOW LEVEL INNER EYEWALL NOW POSITIONED OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 172219Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CYAN RING SURROUNDING THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE COMBINED WITH SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF EIR IMAGERY, AND SUPPORTED BY A 171913Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 82 KNOTS AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC 10S WITH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER THE TOP OF TC 10S AS WELL. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY FAVORABLE (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) VWS ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 10S IS NOW OVER LAND AND SO IS NO LONGER SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE SSTS. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COMPETING STEERING RIDGES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER INLAND AND THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE ASSUMES STEERING. DESPITE LAND INTERACTION, TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY THROUGH TAU 12 AS IS COMMONLY SEEN IN THIS REGION. TC 10S WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TURNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST AND STEADILY DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//