TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015
500 AM HST TUE SEP 08 2015
 
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF JIMENA THINNED ENOUGH
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS TO OFFER GOOD VIEWS OF LOW CLOUD SWIRLS IN
ANIMATION WHICH...WHEN ADDED TO ANALYSIS OF LOW CLOUD SWIRLS ACROSS
THE WEST SEMICIRCLE...CONTRIBUTE TO OVERALL FIX CONFIDENCE FOR THE
1200 UTC ANALYSIS CYCLE. HOWEVER...AN 0700 UTC ASCAT PASS ACROSS
JIMENA...RECEIVED A BIT TOO LATE FOR THE LAST ADVISORY...SHOWED A
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SYSTEM AND PLACED THE LLCC FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST THAN ESTIMATED VIA SATELLITE ANALYSIS ALONE. A 1 KM RESOLUTION
VIIRS IMAGE AT 1146 UTC ALLOWED A VIEW OF ALMOST ALL OF THE LOW
CLOUD CIRCULATION...SHOWING THE LLCC WAS INDEED NOTICEABLY WEST OF
ANY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED BY THE SATELLITE CENTERS.
SINCE THE FINAL 1200 UTC POSITION AND STRENGTH WOULD HAVE RESULTED
IN UNREPRESENTATIVE MOTION AND INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS...WE
REANALYZED THE PREVIOUS 0600 UTC...0000 UTC AND 1800 UTC POSITIONS
AND INTENSITIES. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
WERE ONCE AGAIN ALL 2.5...35 KT FROM THE SATELLITE CENTERS...WHILE
UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATED 40 KT. A RESPECTABLE SWATH OF 45 KT WINDS WAS
NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT IN THE ASCAT PASS AND...AS A
RESULT OF THE REANALYSIS PROCESS...AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS
ASSIGNED FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT IS LIKELY THAT JIMENA ACTUALLY
MAINTAINED A STEADY 45 KT INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.