WTPS31 PGTW 102100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 146.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 146.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 14.4S 145.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 15.4S 144.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 16.7S 145.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 18.1S 146.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 20.3S 150.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 22.7S 155.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 23.8S 161.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 145.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (ITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM NORTHWARD OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED INTO A 16 NM EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 135 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 23P IS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER THE CORAL SEA. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ROUNDING THE STR AXIS LEADING TO A SOUTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR. AFTER TAU 36, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THEN BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. TC ITA IS BELIEVED TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY. A QUICK WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SLIGHTLY INLAND OVER THE EASTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST. INTERACTION WITH THE COASTLINE AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NORTH OF CAIRNS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BACK INTO THE CORAL SEA NEAR TAU 48 BUT WITH INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z. // NNNN