WTPS31 PGTW 102100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 174.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 174.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 20.4S 174.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 22.0S 173.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 23.4S 173.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 25.0S 172.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 28.6S 170.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 21 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 34.1S 163.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 174.6W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 07P TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM TO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 07P. THE IR ANIMATION DEPICTS AN INTENSE, TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH AN 18 NM EYE FEATURE. A 101652Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SHARPLY DEFINED EYEWALL WITH SEVERAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING OUT FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE IR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115-127 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF TC 07P HAS CONTINUED TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL FURTHER SUPPORT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. BY TAU 72, TC 07P WILL BEGIN ENCOUNTERING STRONGER VWS AND COOLER SSTS, BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. IMPROVEMENTS IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND MODEL GUIDANCE LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.// NNNN