AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
407 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER TODAY WITH 1031MB HIGH SITTING OVER MN. OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE COMING IN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS A DEEP TROUGH WORKS
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. OTHER THAN THAT...BIG CHALLENGE
FOR THE FORECAST THIS WEEK WAS HOW FRESH SNOW PACK WILL IMPACT
TEMPERATURES DURING THE BIG WARM UP THAT IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD
FOR THANKSGIVING.

SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US SNOW YESTERDAY ALREADY MOVING OFF INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW IS QUICKLY TAKING
CONTROL OF THE CONUS WITH A NICE BOWLING BALL LOW COMING INTO THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. STRICTLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS
PERIOD...WITH ONLY SYSTEM OF NOTE EXPECTED TO PASS OFF TO THE SE
OF THE MPX CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY /THIS IS THE CURRENT
CALIFORNIA LOW/. 20.12 RUNS OF THE MODELS DID PULL THIS LOW NW
QUITE A BIT TODAY...BUT ONLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO NOW BRING THE THREAT
OF MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES TO SE MN INTO WI TUESDAY. BIG PLAYER FOR THE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK WILL BE SNOW COVER IN PLACE FROM
YESTERDAYS STORM. HIGH RES /1 KM/ MODIS SATELLITE PASS TODAY
SHOWED THE SNOW PACK QUITE WELL...EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL SODAK
AND MOST OF THE CWA. SNOW PACK DEEPEST FROM WEST CENTRAL MN
THROUGH CENTRAL MN AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST IMPACT FROM THE
SNOW ON TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE COMING DAYS. WENT LOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS DEEPER SNOW PACK REGION FOR BOTH HIGHS
AND LOWS THROUGH THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY...BUT VERY WARM CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS LIKELY STAYING
ABOVE 30...SHOULD ALL BUT DO IN THIS SNOW PACK BY FRIDAY. MODEL OF
CHOICE FOR TEMPERATURES WAS THE NAM TODAY...AS IT APPEARED TO
INITIALIZE THE SNOW COVER THE BEST WHEN COMPARING FORECAST HIGHS
AND LOWS OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE ONLY AREA WHERE THE NAM WAS NOT
FOLLOWED AS CLOSELY IS SE OF THE DEEPER SNOW COVER...WHERE THE NAM
WAS LOOKING A LITTLE TOO WARM ON TEMPERATURES.