WDXS32 PGTW 101500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.1S 50.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 156 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (GEZANI). CONVECTIVE BANDING FORMING A NEARLY UNIFORM CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) HAS TRANSITIONED INTO AN EYE FEATURE SCENE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS INDICATING CONTINUOUS INTENSIFICATION. THE EYE HAS WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY (TO 18C AT 101200Z), WHILE THE CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO REMAIN COLD (NEAR -78C). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE EYE, WHILE THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE OBJECTIVE AIDS AND SUBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. AS TC GEZANI APPROACHES MADAGASCAR AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND, IT IS CURRENTLY REACHING PEAK INTENSITY, UTILIZING THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LEADING UP TO THIS MOMENT AND CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), MOIST ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, AND SUPPORTIVE, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS DEMS: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 108 KTS AT 101200Z CIMSS ADT: 112 KTS AT 101200Z CIMSS AIDT: 113 KTS AT 101200Z CIMSS D-MINT: 110 KTS AT 101200Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 101 KTS AT 101200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC GEZANI IS QUICKLY APPROACHING LANDFALL OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DRIVEN BY HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK OF 115-120 KTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT OVER THE ISLAND, WHILE INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAIN RANGE AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE TERRAIN WILL RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING AS REFLECTED BY INTENSITY DROP TO 30 KTS. THE TRANSIT IS EXPECTED TO LAST ABOUT 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY RECONSOLIDATION OCCURRING WITHIN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ENCOUNTERED BY THE SYSTEM ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE ISLAND WILL RESULT IN STEADY INTENSIFICATION. A STEERING PATTERN SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 48, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST TO RETROGRESS SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR AND ATTENUATE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR CONCURRENTLY WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH, A COMBINATION OF FACTORS THAT WILL INDUCE A POLEWARD DEFLECTION OF TC 21S. IN REGARD TO INTENSITY, MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS REFLECTS THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON WEAKENING OVER LAND, FOLLOWED BY RECONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION AFTERWARDS. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN REACHING 65-70 KTS WIND SPEEDS. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME TO A BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, WITH SOME MODELS (NAVGEM, ECMWF) STILL INDICATING LESS OF AN IMPACT FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND POTENTIAL FOR THE CYCLONE TO CLOSELY APPROACH THE COASTAL MOZAMBIQUE. THIS LATTER SCENARIO RESULTS IN A FAILURE OF THE CYCLONE TO PHASE WITH THE ADVANCING BAROCLINIC TROUGH, THEREBY PERMITTING TC GEZANI TO MAINTAIN A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST ADHERES TO THE CONSENSUS RECURVATURE SCENARIO, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS ASSESSED AS MEDIUM. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AMONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS IS ONLY 40 NM AROUND TAU 24, EXPANDING TO 120 NM AT TAU 72. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, A LARGE INTENSIFICATION SPREAD (10-50 KTS) UPON THE RECONSOLIDATION WITHIN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL RESULTS IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE INTENSITY PROJECTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN ===== WTXS32 PGTW 101500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 18.1S 50.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 50.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.3S 47.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 18.9S 45.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 19.7S 42.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.5S 40.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 22.4S 37.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 25.1S 36.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 26.8S 38.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 49.5E. 10FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101200Z IS 956 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z.// NNNN