WTPS31 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 13.8S 156.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 156.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 14.7S 156.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 15.4S 155.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 15.9S 154.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 16.2S 154.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 16.4S 152.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 16.4S 150.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 16.5S 148.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 156.6E. 07DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 657 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071800Z IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. // NNNN WDPS31 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.8S 156.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 657 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 37 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPROVING 15-20NM EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS AND PERSISTENT VIGOROUS OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH. THOUGH THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ITS VERTICAL ALIGNMENT, A SLIGHT TROCHOIDAL WOBBLE IS EVIDENT AS 03P GLIDES POLEWARD. A 071451Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A CLEARLY DEFINED EYE AND NEARLY COMPLETE EYE WALL WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR AND AMSR2 IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ALL DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATING 115KTS WHILE CIMSS AUTOMATED ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 102KTS-124KTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: ONGOING TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST TO A STRONGER STR TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS ABRF: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 102 KTS AT 071800Z CIMSS ADT: 124 KTS AT 071730Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P (JASPER) IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, 03P WILL BE FORCED INTO AN INCREASINGLY WESTWARD COURSE AS STEERING CONTROL IS TRANSFERRED TO THE STR TO THE SOUTH. AFTER REACHING ITS PEAK INTENSITY NEAR TAU 12 OF 110KTS AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DEGRADE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) INCREASES, COOL DRY AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BEGINS TO DWINDLE. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AND BY TAU 96, 03P WILL BARELY CLING TO TYPHOON STRENGTH. ALL IS NOT LOST HOWEVER, NEAR TAU 100, VWS IS FORECASTED TO ONCE AGAIN FALL TO SINGLE DIGITS. REDUCED VWS WHEN COUPLED WITH IMPROVING MOISTURE CONTENT WITHIN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM MAY ALLOW 03P TO SLIGHTLY RE-INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATING THE SAME GENERAL TRACK FORECAST WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. HWRF AND COAMPS-TC (NVGM VERSION) ARE SLIGHT SOUTHERLY OUTLIERS AS THE SYSTEM ALTERS COURSE TOWARD EASTERN AUSTRALIA. TRACK CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL CYCLE BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS MEDIUM. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INITIALLY WITH ALL MEMBERS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 12, AFTER WHICH GRADUAL DECLINE OCCURS THROUGH TAU 100. THE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS IS GREATEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST WHICH IS TYPICAL BUT WHEN COMPOUNDED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RE-INTENSIFICATION, THE SPREAD IS FURTHER EXACERBATED. AS A RESULT THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN