WTPN32 PGTW 071500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 9.8N 153.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 153.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 9.9N 152.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 10.3N 151.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 10.8N 150.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 11.7N 148.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 14.4N 144.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 18.2N 142.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 21.7N 142.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 153.0E. 07OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 541 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071200Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (KOINU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN WDPN32 PGTW 071500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 9.8N 153.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 541 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED, ALBEIT CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON CURRENT STORM MOTION AND LOW CLOUD TRACING IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM ALONG-TRACK SST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 071140Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 15W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL COME TO WITHIN 32NM OF ANDERSEN AFB AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA JUST BEFORE TAU 72. AFTERWARD, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EXITING JAPAN TO THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE NORTHWARD TOWARD IWO TO. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 80KTS AT TAU 72. AFTERWARD, INCREASE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE A RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AND BY TAU 120, REACHING 120 KTS. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD TO 265NM BY TAU 72 THEN TO 370NM BY TAU 120 WITH NAVGEM THE SOLE LEFT OF TRACK OUTLIER. GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN