WTPN31 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 11.2N 146.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 146.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 12.4N 146.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 13.2N 145.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 13.7N 144.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 14.2N 142.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 15.2N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 16.2N 133.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 18.3N 129.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 146.7E. 23MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052300Z IS 947 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.// NNNN WDPN31 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 11.2N 146.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 43 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TC MAWAR HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF FURTHER RI ALONG WITH AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS A RELATIVELY SMALL 14 NM DIAMETER EYE WITH BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANALYSIS OF THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAD A SLIGHT WOBBLE IN TRACK. THIS BEHAVIOR IS EXPECTED OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN ADDITION, A 222046Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEFINED SPIRAL BANDING IN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLES OF THE LLCC. RADAR IMAGERY FROM ANDERSEN AIR FORCE BASE (PGUA) SHOWS THE OUTER BANDS OF THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER GUAM, ROTA, AND THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS, AS WELL AS THE EYE OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING GUAM FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MOREOVER, RECENT SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM ANDERSEN AFB INDICATE CONSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ANALYSIS OF THE 222047Z CIMSS M-PERC EYEWALL REPLACEMENT TOOL INDICATES AN ERC IS TAKING PLACE. TC MAWAR IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, A PRONOUNCED 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES, AS WELL AS THE ABOVEMENTIONED RADAR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED OFF A BLEND OF MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 107 KTS AT 222047Z CIMSS ADT: 122 KTS AT 230130Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD OTHER FACTORS: RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AND EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC MAWAR HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF FURTHER RI ALONG WITH AN ERC. TC 02W IS RIDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST. DURING TAUS 12 THROUGH 24, TC MAWAR WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 125 KNOTS AS THE STORM CENTER MAKES ITS APPROACH TO THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF GUAM. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE HIGHER THAN 125 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME AS DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE ON A CLIMBING TREND. BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36, TC MAWAR WILL MAKE THE TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF GUAM AS THE STR TO THE EAST BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTH. THIS STR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING INTO A FAVORABLE AREA FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL LEND A HAND TO INCREASE INTENSIFICATION. AS A RESULT, TC MAWAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 135 KNOTS BY TAU 96. BY TAU 120, TC 02W WILL BEGIN TO MAKE THE APPROACH TO THE STR AXIS AND HEAD ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALL IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THAT TC MAWAR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, THEN MAKE THE TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY TAU 36. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A 15 NM SPREAD AT TAU 12 THAT GRADUALLY INCREASES TO 32 NM BY TAU 24, AND 50 NM BY TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, THE SPREAD INCREASE TO 109 NM BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE CLOSE TO CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS DUE TO THE SPREAD OF THE MODELS. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS DISPLAYS A 20 KNOT SPREAD THROUGH TAU 36, MORE THAN LIKELY DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, THE SPREAD INCREASES INTO THE LATER TAUS. HOWEVER, THEY DO AGREE WITH AN INCREASING SCENARIO THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN