WTPN31 PGTW 252100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 024// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 14.9N 140.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 140.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 15.4N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 15.9N 135.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 16.5N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 17.2N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 18.9N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 20.1N 124.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 21.5N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 139.9E. 25MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052518Z IS 903 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 65 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.// NNNN WDPN31 PGTW 252100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 024// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.9N 140.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 155 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 266 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 65 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM THAT CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE COMPACT AS IT MAINTAINED A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 22-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 155KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPROVED EIR STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM SST, LOW VWS, AND STRONG RADIAL VENTILATION ALOFT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T7.5 - 155 KTS RJTD: T7.5 - 155 KTS KNES: T7.5 - 155 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 149 KTS AT 251604Z CIMSS ADT: 149 KTS AT 251730Z CIMSS D-MINT: 153 KTS AT 251631Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY MAWAR WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL IT BEGINS TO RECURVE AND ROUND THE STR AXIS AFTER TAU 72 AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 12. AFTERWARD, REDUCED MOISTURE INFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATER WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE THE INTENSITY TO 90KTS BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 120NM AT TAU 72 THEN OPENING UP MORE TO 250NM BY TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW AFTERWARD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN