WTPN31 PGTW 211500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 007 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 8.0N 148.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.0N 148.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 9.2N 147.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 10.5N 147.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 11.8N 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 13.0N 146.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 14.6N 143.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 15.6N 140.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 16.6N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 8.3N 148.1E. 21MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052112Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. // NNNN ===== WDPN31 PGTW 211500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 8.0N 148.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 385 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE THAT IS FULLY OBSCURING THE LLCC BENEATH. A RECENT 210821Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED CORE CONVECTION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE ALLOWING THE TIGHTLY WRAPPING LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES BELOW TO BE SEEN. WHILE EIR AND SSMIS IMAGERY IS HELPFUL, THEY PALE IN COMPARISON TO A RECENT 210813Z RADARSAT-2 SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR (SAR) PASS. THE SAR PASS INDICATED THAT THE LLCC IS STILL SLIGHTLY E-W ELONGATED WITH THE BULK OF THE HIGHEST WINDS (65-70KTS) EXISTING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY OBSCURED NATURE OF THE LLCC IN MSI AS WELL AS ITS ELONGATED CIRCULATION AT 0813Z PROVIDED BY THE SAR PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON SCALAR WIND DATA PROVIDED BY THE SAR PASS. IN THIS STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, AS SCENE TYPES CHANGE AND THE PATH IS CLEARED FOR AND EYE TO FORM, THE SUBJECTIVE NATURE OF THE DVORAK METHOD IS ON FULL DISPLAY. OUTLIERS IN FINAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE ARE COMMON, HOWEVER THEIR VERACITY SHOULD BE CLOSELY EXAMINED. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 210830Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: STRONG POLEWARD AND MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 02W (MAWAR) HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PICK UP SPEED UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER TO THE EAST, 02W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING 02W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE, CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SSTS AND ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT BOTH POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OVERWHELMING THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF LIMITED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND MODERATE MID-UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HAVING RECENTLY ACHIEVED TYPHOON STRENGTH, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS HOURS, FUELED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SSTS. NEAR TAU 72, THE NER TO THE EAST REORIENTS AND BUILDS FURTHER NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, FORCING IT TO STEADY UP ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE AFTER PASSING NORTH OF GUAM. BY TAU 120, NOW OVER THE WARM WATERS AND DEEP OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA, 02W WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115KTS AS IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFUM AND NVGM, WHICH ARE BOTH ONCE AGAIN THE OUTLIERS, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MAXIMUM CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 117NM BY TAU 72. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CARRY THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 AFTER WHICH EVERY MEMBERS ALTERS COURSE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 72, ALONG TRACK SPREADING DOES INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND EVENTUALLY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS AS WELL AS RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS INDICATING ROBUST AND PERSISTENT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 60. AS 02W ENTERS THE PHILIPPINE SEA IN THE EXTENDED TRACK, INTENSIFICATION CONTINUES, SIMPLY AT A REDUCED RATE. FOR THESE REASONS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND EVENTUALLY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO AN INCREASING DISCREPANCY IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN