WXTLIST APR=AFD WST=KBUF DAY=22357 TIM=00:00:59 23:59:59 NUM=12
FXUS61 KBUF 232352                                              2022357 2353
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
652 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will impact the region through the Christmas
weekend. A strong Arctic cold front will exit by early afternoon
with increasingly widespread strong winds. Very strong winds are
expected to continue through Saturday with wind-driven heavy lake
effect snows northeast of the Lakes creating blizzard conditions.
Heavy lake snows will last through at least Christmas Day, possibly
lingering into the first part of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
...LIFE THREATENING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY...
Crippling BLIZZARD well underway across the Niagara Frontier with a
prolonged period of zero visibility across much of the Buffalo metro
area. The Buffalo radar showing a single band of intense snowfall
with rates of 2+ inches per hour parked across the Buffalo metro
area extending into northwest Genesee, southwest Orleans and
southern Niagara counties. The expectation is that the lake band
will meander a bit to the north and south, but it appears that
it will remain parked across the Buffalo metro area tonight through
Saturday, and will not start to drift south until Saturday night.
As for the winds, surface pressure over southern Ontario will
continue to intensify to around 961mb tonight as it wobbles into
Quebec. Peak wind gusts have already exceeded 70 mph across parts of
western New York today and most guidance suggests that even stronger
winds are possible tonight, before starting to very gradually
subside during the day Saturday. The combination of the lake snows
and intense winds will maintain the blizzard conditions across the
Niagara Frontier through at least the day Saturday.
Heavy lake effect snow now underway across the eastern Lake Ontario
region. The heaviest lake band is expected to become nearly
stationary across most of Jefferson county tonight and through the
day Saturday. Very strong winds of up to 65 mph will also bring
crippling blizzard conditions to Jefferson county as well, including
the city of Watertown, lasting through Saturday night.
Travel will be impossible where the heaviest snow and strongest
winds are occurring concurrently. Power outages will become
increasingly widespread which continues to be a big concern,
especially with the cold temperature expected for the holiday
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect snow will continue Sunday...though reducing wind speeds
will end blizzard conditions...with lake effect snow warnings
likely.
Sunday a deep upper level closed low will be just east of James Bay,
with a filling, but still very deep surface low to the east of James
Bay as well. This filling low with a relaxing pressure gradient will
allow for wind speeds to fall back towards sustained 20 to 30 mph
...and gusts to 45 mph Sunday morning which will then further weaken
slowly through the day. Blowing snow will still occur, with heavy
bands of lake effect snow pushing southward towards the Buffalo
Southtowns and Tug Hill creating still difficult driving conditions
and very poor visibilities. Towards Buffalo and the Northtowns there
will likely be some improvement with the band of snow pushing
southward. A foot of fresh snow is likely Christmas day east of Lake
Erie, with a foot or two east of Lake Ontario where a favorable
fetch/lift over the Lake Ontario waters could focus upwards to 2
feet on the Northern Tug Hill, with a foot of snow near Watertown.
Lowering inversion heights and a drier air mass will cause lake
snows to diminish in intensity off Lake Erie Sunday night.
Meanwhile, a weakening band will move back northward as winds
shift back to the southwest. Fairly intense lake snows will
continue east of Lake Ontario. It's possible that winter
headlines may need to be extended into Oswego County with around
a foot of snow possible across far northern portions of the
county with upslope snow in this corner of the county.
Also, any power outages that last for a longer period will have a
bigger impact since very cold weather will last late into the
weekend and beginning of next week.
Monday lake snows will be in a weaker state with falling Lake
inversion heights. However a backing flow will bring the snow back
to the City of Buffalo with several inches of snow falling. Later in
the day the band of snow will be weakening over the North Country.
A shortwave digging into the large upper level trough Monday night
will bring additional synoptic moisture back over the Lakes. This
trough will reinvigorate the lake snows on a SW to SSW
flow...highlighting Niagara County and the Saint Lawrence Valley
Monday night before the bands shift southward. Several inches of
snow is again likely off Lake Erie, with additional half foot plus
east of Lake Ontario. While the focus of snow will be lake effect,
the passing shortwave may also generate a few light snow showers
outside of these bands.
Temperatures will be well below normal this period, with highs some
10 degrees or more below normal. Highs both Sunday and Monday will
be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Lows will be in the teens to
interior single digits. These temperatures and still gusty winds
will generate wind chill values in the single digits through much of
this time period.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A shortwave moving across the region Tuesday will provide some
moisture, allowing lake effect snows to continue east/northeast of
the lakes. Went well above model guidance for POPs, although
accumulations should be relatively light (ballpark of a few inches).
Lake snows will taper off Tuesday night with the departure of the
shortwave and lowering inversion heights.
After this, a ridge of high pressure will move across the area
Wednesday with fair weather, followed by a MUCH WELCOMED warming
trend for the end of the week. Highs on Friday will be in the upper
40s to lower 50s. A weak wave of low pressure will pass by to the
north, possibly producing a few light rain showers on Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For the 00Z TAFS two significant bands of lake effect snow off Lake
Erie and Ontario will bring prolonged VLIFR/LIFR flight conditions
with very strong winds that will produce severe blowing and
drifting. These bands will stay nearly stationary, with subtle
oscillations through the TAF cycle. Some narrowing to the band of
snow off Lake Erie may allow for some flight improvements at KIAG
later tonight, while snow at KROC will slowly ease through the TAF
period.
Outlook...
Saturday Night...Very windy with snow and severe blowing and
drifting snow. IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake effect
snow to the northeast and east of the lakes.
Sunday...Localized IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow. Lake effect snow settles south of Buffalo early Sunday,
and south of Watertown early Sunday evening.
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow lifting back
northward towards Buffalo and Watertown
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR early in lake snows. A return to VFR with lake
snows ending through the afternoon.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong and wide-reaching storm will bring intense winds across the
Great Lakes into the weekend. There will be high end gales with
frequent storm force gusts, or possibly even outright storm force
sustained winds, for which a Storm Warning for Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario remain in effect as outlined below. Wave heights may exceed
25 to 30 feet on both Lakes during this time. The strong winds and
plunging temperatures which will also pose a heavy freezing spray
hazard for this afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Thus, a Heavy
Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect for Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Intense southwest wind gusts to over 60 knots produced a seiche
event on Lake Erie this morning. The peak lake level at Buffalo
reached close to 9.7 feet above low water datum. A secondary
peak in the lake level occurred early this afternoon when the
lake level reached near 10.7 feet above low water datum, which
is close to 3 feet above the 8 foot flood stage
Sustained winds to at least 45 knots with frequent gusts over
storm force in the central and eastern basin will continue to
keep the lake level very high at Buffalo into tonight.
Significant lakeshore flooding is expected along the Lake Erie
shore, including Canalside, Buffalo Riverworks, the Hoover Beach
and Woodlawn areas of Hamburg, Dunkirk and Sunset Bay areas,
and Route 5 in Hamburg.
Flooding will also occur along the Niagara River. The elevated
Lake Erie water results in more water flowing down the Niagara
River, which can cause flooding along the riverside in locations
such as South Grand Island, and Cayuga Island in the city of
Niagara Falls.
Very strong southwest gales to 40-45 knots with storm force gusts
will also bring the potential for lakeshore flooding and shoreline
erosion to the eastern end of Lake Ontario through Sunday
morning. Lake levels are below normal, which will lower the
potential for lakeshore flooding, but with onshore winds this
strong along with expected considerable wave action the threat
is a bit more elevated for this event.
Temperatures in the teens and single digits will result in freezing
spray along the lakeshore areas, and water from lakeshore flooding
will likely freeze after the water levels subside.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001-002-010-011-
     019-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for NYZ001-010-
     019-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for NYZ004>006-
     013-014.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ006-007.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ021.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for LEZ020.
         Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...Thomas/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TMA
FXUS61 KBUF 232024                                              2022357 2024
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
324 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will impact the region through the Christmas
weekend. A strong Arctic cold front will exit by early afternoon
with increasingly widespread strong winds. Very strong winds are
expected to continue through Saturday with wind-driven heavy lake
effect snows northeast of the Lakes creating blizzard conditions.
Heavy lake snows will last through at least Christmas Day, possibly
lingering into the first part of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
...A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND...
Crippling BLIZZARD well underway across the Niagara Frontier with a
prolonged period of zero visibility across much of the Buffalo metro
area. The Buffalo radar showing a single band of intense snowfall
with rates of 2+ inches per hour parked across the Buffalo metro
area extending into northwest Genesee, southwest Orleans and
southern Niagara counties. The expectation is that the lake band
will meander a bit to the north and south, but it appears that
it will remain parked across the Buffalo metro area at least
through tonight and perhaps even through the day Saturday as
steering winds remain southwesterly. As for the winds, surface
pressure over southern Ontario will continue to intensify to
around 961mb tonight as it wobbles into Quebec. Peak wind gusts
have already exceeded 70 mph across parts of western New York
today and most guidance suggests that even stronger winds are
possible tonight, before starting to very gradually subside
during the day Saturday. The combination of the lake snows and
intense winds will maintain the blizzard conditions across the
Niagara Frontier through at least the day Saturday.
Heavy lake effect snow now just underway across the eastern Lake
Ontario region. The heaviest lake band is expected to drift
northward and become nearly stationary across most of Jefferson
county tonight and through the day Saturday. Very strong winds
of up to 65 mph will also bring crippling blizzard conditions to
Jefferson county as well, including the city of Watertown,
lasting through Saturday night.
Travel will be extremely difficult to impossible where the heaviest
snow and strongest winds are occurring concurrently. Power outages
will become increasingly widespread which continues to be a big
concern, especially with the cold temperature expected for the
holiday weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect snow will continue Sunday...though reducing wind speeds
will end blizzard conditions...with lake effect snow warnings
likely.
Sunday a deep upper level closed low will be just east of James Bay,
with a filling, but still very deep surface low to the east of James
Bay as well. This filling low with a relaxing pressure gradient will
allow for wind speeds to fall back towards sustained 20 to 30 mph
...and gusts to 45 mph Sunday morning which will then further weaken
slowly through the day. Blowing snow will still occur, with heavy
bands of lake effect snow pushing southward towards the Buffalo
Southtowns and Tug Hill creating still difficult driving conditions
and very poor visibilities. Towards Buffalo and the Northtowns there
will likely be some improvement with the band of snow pushing
southward. A foot of fresh snow is likely Christmas day east of Lake
Erie, with a foot or two east of Lake Ontario where a favorable
fetch/lift over the Lake Ontario waters could focus upwards to 2
feet on the Northern Tug Hill, with a foot of snow near Watertown.
Lowering inversion heights and a drier air mass will cause lake
snows to diminish in intensity off Lake Erie Sunday night.
Meanwhile, a weakening band will move back northward as winds
shift back to the southwest. Fairly intense lake snows will
continue east of Lake Ontario. It's possible that winter
headlines may need to be extended into Oswego County with around
a foot of snow possible across far northern portions of the
county with upslope snow in this corner of the county.
Also, any power outages that last for a longer period will have a
bigger impact since very cold weather will last late into the
weekend and beginning of next week.
Monday lake snows will be in a weaker state with falling Lake
inversion heights. However a backing flow will bring the snow back
to the City of Buffalo with several inches of snow falling. Later in
the day the band of snow will be weakening over the North Country.
A shortwave digging into the large upper level trough Monday night
will bring additional synoptic moisture back over the Lakes. This
trough will reinvigorate the lake snows on a SW to SSW
flow...highlighting Niagara County and the Saint Lawrence Valley
Monday night before the bands shift southward. Several inches of
snow is again likely off Lake Erie, with additional half foot plus
east of Lake Ontario. While the focus of snow will be lake effect,
the passing shortwave may also generate a few light snow showers
outside of these bands.
Temperatures will be well below normal this period, with highs some
10 degrees or more below normal. Highs both Sunday and Monday will
be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Lows will be in the teens to
interior single digits. These temperatures and still gusty winds
will generate wind chill values in the single digits through much of
this time period.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A shortwave moving across the region Tuesday will provide some
moisture, allowing lake effect snows to continue east/northeast of
the lakes. Went well above model guidance for POPs, although
accumulations should be relatively light (ballpark of a few inches).
Lake snows will taper off Tuesday night with the departure of the
shortwave and lowering inversion heights.
After this, a ridge of high pressure will move across the area
Wednesday with fair weather, followed by a MUCH WELCOMED warming
trend for the end of the week. Highs on Friday will be in the upper
40s to lower 50s. A weak wave of low pressure will pass by to the
north, possibly producing a few light rain showers on Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Heavy Lake effect snow northeast of Lake Erie will continue through
this afternoon and develop northeast of Lake Ontario. The
combination of snow and blowing snow will create very poor
visibility of LIFR or lower northeast of the Lakes. Winds will gust
into the 35-45 knot range areawide, and up to 65 knots northeast of
Lake Erie creating blizzard conditions in some areas.
Expect similar flight conditions to last through tonight. Wind-
driven heavy lake effect snow and blowing snow will continue
northeast of the Lakes through tonight with LIFR or lower
visibilities, with MVFR/IFR visibilities outside of lake bands in
much lighter snow but considerable blowing snow as SW'erly winds
gusting to 50-65 knots northeast of the Lakes, with 35 to 45 knots
elsewhere. Ceilings will be mainly IFR/LIFR in areas of lake effect,
with MVFR/low VFR elsewhere.
Outlook...
Saturday...Very windy with snow and severe blowing and drifting
snow. IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake effect snow to the
northeast and east of the lakes.
Sunday...Localized IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow to the northeast and east of the lakes.
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow east of the
lakes.
Tuesday...A return to VFR with lake snows ending.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong and wide-reaching storm will bring intense winds across the
Great Lakes into the weekend. There will be high end gales with
frequent storm force gusts, or possibly even outright storm force
sustained winds, for which a Storm Warning for Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario remain in effect as outlined below. Wave heights may exceed
25 to 30 feet on both Lakes during this time. The strong winds and
plunging temperatures which will also pose a heavy freezing spray
hazard for this afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Thus, a Heavy
Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect for Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Intense southwest wind gusts to over 60 knots produced a seiche
event on Lake Erie this morning. The peak lake level at Buffalo
reached close to 9.7 feet above low water datum. A secondary
peak in the lake level occurred early this afternoon when the
lake level reached near 10.7 feet above low water datum, which
is close to 3 feet above the 8 foot flood stage
Sustained winds to at least 45 knots with frequent gusts over
storm force in the central and eastern basin will continue to
keep the lake level very high at Buffalo into tonight.
Significant lakeshore flooding is expected along the Lake Erie
shore, including Canalside, Buffalo Riverworks, the Hoover Beach
and Woodlawn areas of Hamburg, Dunkirk and Sunset Bay areas,
and Route 5 in Hamburg.
Flooding will also occur along the Niagara River. The elevated
Lake Erie water results in more water flowing down the Niagara
River, which can cause flooding along the riverside in locations
such as South Grand Island, and Cayuga Island in the city of
Niagara Falls.
Very strong southwest gales to 40-45 knots with storm force gusts
will also bring the potential for lakeshore flooding and shoreline
erosion to the eastern end of Lake Ontario through Sunday
morning. Lake levels are below normal, which will lower the
potential for lakeshore flooding, but with onshore winds this
strong along with expected considerable wave action the threat
is a bit more elevated for this event.
Temperatures in the teens and single digits will result in freezing
spray along the lakeshore areas, and water from lakeshore flooding
will likely freeze after the water levels subside.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001-002-010-011-
     019-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for NYZ001-010-
     019-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for NYZ004>006-
     013-014.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ006-007.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ021.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for LEZ020.
         Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/TMA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TMA
FXUS61 KBUF 231802                                              2022357 1802
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
102 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will impact the region through the Christmas
weekend. A strong Arctic cold front will exit by early afternoon
with increasingly widespread strong winds. Very strong winds are
expected to continue through Saturday with wind-driven heavy lake
effect snows northeast of the Lakes creating blizzard conditions.
Heavy lake snows will last through at least Christmas Day, possibly
lingering into the first part of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
...A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND...
Arctic front just about ready to enter north central New York late
this morning. Steady rain across the North County will change
rapidly to snow as it did across western New York earlier this
morning.
High confidence continues for expected BLIZZARD conditions downwind
of both Lake Erie, including now added Chautauqua county, as well as
for Jefferson County off Lake Ontario. These areas will experience
the strongest southwest winds. The expectation is that the
combination of heavy lake effect snow and very strong winds will
produce blizzard conditions across the Niagara Frontier and
Chautauqua county into Saturday night, with these same blizzard
conditions starting in Jefferson County by this afternoon and
lasting into Sunday morning.
A deep trough will dig across eastern U.S., becoming negatively
tilted with an associated surface cyclone rapidly intensifying
across southern Ontario today. Surface pressure drops rapidly (20mb
or more in only 12 hours) to around 971mb as it moves into Quebec
this evening, with the 23/00Z GFS/ECMWF eventually intensifying the
low to around 964mb tonight. The low will continue to pivot across
southern Quebec as it becomes vertically stacked tonight and
Saturday. An Arctic cold front will plow across the region today as
this low rapidly intensifies.
Very strong gusty winds behind the front, with cold air advection
allowing winds aloft to readily mix to the surface. Peak wind gusts
have already exceeded 70 mph across parts of western New York this
morning. Expect wind gusts of 65 to 75 mph near Lake Erie, from the
Niagara Frontier to Monroe County, as well as Jefferson County, with
gusts to 50 mph inland through tonight.
It's important to note that multiple hazards are addressed in our
WSW product, including the flash freeze, strong winds, snow
accumulation and dangerously cold wind chills. Blowing snow will
quickly become an issue, due to the strong winds and very dry snow.
Moving into tonight through Saturday morning, this is when the worst
conditions in terms of a combined hazard from heavy snow, blowing
snow and localized blizzard conditions will occur. Travel will be
very difficult, but more likely impossible where the heaviest snow
and strongest winds are occurring concurrently. Winds will be very
strong tonight in the mixed layer that are even shown to exceed 65
kts at times. This is the period when wind damage will potentially
be the highest and power outages could become widespread. This is a
real concern especially with the cold temperature expected for the
holiday weekend.
A note about the coverage of snow tonight into Saturday morning.
Given such strong winds, do not anticipate a classic narrower plume
of heavy lake enhanced snow for this time frame. Instead a more
widespread footprint to the moderate to heavy snow is more likely as
the strong winds will spray the heaviest snow around and cause
locations of heaviest snow to vary based on where localized
convergence occurs which will be hard to tell given such strong
winds. That and lower SLRs due to such strong winds (dendrites will
be shattered to pieces leaving a more fine snow type) is not good
news though as even where snow is not heavy, there will be a more
widespread impact with blowing, drifting snow leading to whiteout
conditions. As mentioned expect a widespread 1-3 inches of snow with
the FROPA, however totals in lake effect snows northeast of the
Lakes will be in the 3-7 inch range by the end of the day. Although
the widespread winds continue into tonight there will be very little
in the way of additional synoptic snow. However, wind-driven heavy
lake effect snow will continue across areas northeast of the Lakes,
where an additional 6-12 inches will be possible by Saturday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME AREAS INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...
No changes to existing headlines, with latest model guidance in line
with the forecast.
On Saturday the storm will move northward, passing just east of
James Bay Saturday night. There still will be a tight surface
pressure gradient across the region, with 925mb winds of 40-50 kts.
This will continue to support southwesterly winds gusting in excess
of 50 mph across the lake plains, with gusts 40 to 50 mph inland
during the day Saturday. Lake effect snow will continue northeast of
the lakes, with the combination of snow and blowing snow producing
blizzard conditions. The strong winds are expected to produce quite
wide lake effect bands, with cold temperatures resulting in small
and fluffy snowflakes which are prone to blowing and drifting.
Storm impacts on Saturday will be less outside of the lake snow
bands, but the gusty winds will produce extensive blowing snow in
areas with any snow on the ground. It also will be very cold, with
daytime wind chills averaging 5 to 15 below zero.
As the storm moves further away, winds will diminish some Saturday
night. Winds will still be strong enough to produce blowing snow,
especially east/northeast of the lakes where there will continue to
be lake effect snow. Winds will be strongest near the lake shore
(including downtown Buffalo) where gusts to 50 mph will still be
possible. Also, winds off Lake Erie will shift from a mean 230 flow
to 250 which will push lake snows southward across the Buffalo
Southtowns and into the Western Southern Tier Saturday night. The
strong winds will also allow lake snows to extend quite far inland,
into Livingston/Monroe counties. More of a SSW flow off Lake Ontario
will shift to the SW late, with lake snows focusing across Northern
Jefferson county from Watertown northward during Saturday night.
Expect blizzard conditions to continue in lake effect bands, and in
areas where extensive snow has fallen.
On Christmas Day winds will continue to gradually diminish, but lake
effect snows will continue with the lower winds allowing for more of
a banded lake effect structure. Off Lake Erie, cold air aloft and
ample moisture will support a fairly intense lake effect band.
However, there will be less wind with blowing and drifting snow more
localized. WSW flow will direct lake snows across the more
traditional snow belts across northwestern Chautauqua/Cattaraugus
counties and Southern Erie county. Travel will still be difficult,
but there should be some improvement for the Buffalo metro area.
Meanwhile, off Lake Ontario bands of heavy snow will shift across
most of Jefferson County and northern Lewis County maintaining
blizzard conditions into the day. Heavy snow will focus near
Watertown, with over a foot of accumulation likely on Christmas Day
alone. Further inland Christmas Day will be breezy and cold with
highs ranging from the upper teens to mid 20s.
Lowering inversion heights and a drier air mass will cause lake
snows to diminish in intensity off Lake Erie Sunday night.
Meanwhile, a weakening band will move back northward as winds shift
back to the southwest. Fairly intense lake snows will continue east
of Lake Ontario. It's possible that winter headlines may need to be
extended into Oswego County with around a foot of snow possible
across far northern portions of the county.
Storm total snow amounts will be almost entirely from lake effect
snow, with 2 to 3 feet of snow expected northeast of Lake Erie and
perhaps as much as 4 feet off Ontario. Amounts will drop off
dramatically outside of the band, although lake snow will carry
quite far inland due to the strong winds, with some upslope
enhancement across higher terrain. Also, any power outages that last
for a longer period will have a bigger impact since very cold
weather will last through the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Shortwave trough rounding the base of the broader longwave trough
will provide one last shot of moisture on Monday. This will keep
lake effect snows going east and northeast of the lakes with
potential additional accumulations into Monday evening. After
that...lake effect snows will then begin to diminish significantly,
especially on Tuesday as environmental conditions becoming less
favorable with high pressure building into the region.
Wednesday and beyond...it looks like winter will take a break and
all but disappear from the lower 48 as we head towards the weekend.
That said...this might be it for the next week or so, at least in
terms of cold and winter weather. Highs by the weekend are forecast
to climb well into the 40s, we even could see some 50F readings or
higher. Looks like we are going to melt some or a lot of the snow
from this event. Stay tuned!
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Heavy Lake effect snow northeast of Lake Erie will continue through
this afternoon and develop northeast of Lake Ontario. The
combination of snow and blowing snow will create very poor
visibility of LIFR or lower northeast of the Lakes. Winds will gust
into the 35-45 knot range areawide, and up to 65 knots northeast of
Lake Erie creating blizzard conditions in some areas.
Expect similar flight conditions to last through tonight. Wind-
driven heavy lake effect snow and blowing snow will continue
northeast of the Lakes through tonight with LIFR or lower
visibilities, with MVFR/IFR visibilities outside of lake bands in
much lighter snow but considerable blowing snow as SW'erly winds
gusting to 50-65 knots northeast of the Lakes, with 35 to 45 knots
elsewhere. Ceilings will be mainly IFR/LIFR in areas of lake effect,
with MVFR/low VFR elsewhere.
Outlook...
Saturday...Very windy with snow and severe blowing and drifting
snow. IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake effect snow to the
northeast and east of the lakes.
Sunday...Localized IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow to the northeast and east of the lakes.
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow east of the
lakes.
Tuesday...A return to VFR with lake snows ending.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong and wide-reaching storm will bring intense winds across the
Great Lakes into the weekend. There will be high end gales with
frequent storm force gusts, or possibly even outright storm force
sustained winds, for which a Storm Warning for Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario remain in effect as outlined below. Wave heights may exceed
25 to 30 feet on both Lakes during this time. The strong winds and
plunging temperatures which will also pose a heavy freezing spray
hazard for this afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Thus, a Heavy
Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect for Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Intense southwest wind gusts to over 60 knots produced a seiche
event on Lake Erie this morning. The peak lake level at Buffalo
reached close to 9.7 feet above low water datum, which is close
to 2 feet above the 8 foot flood stage at 924 am this morning.
A secondary peak in the lake level is also expected through this
afternoon.
Sustained winds to at least 45 knots with frequent gusts over
storm force in the central and eastern basin will continue to
keep the lake level very high at Buffalo into tonight.
Significant lakeshore flooding is expected along the Lake Erie
shore, including Canalside, Buffalo Riverworks, the Hoover Beach
and Woodlawn areas of Hamburg, Dunkirk and Sunset Bay areas,
and Route 5 in Hamburg.
Flooding will also occur along the Niagara River. The elevated
Lake Erie water results in more water flowing down the Niagara
River, which can cause flooding along the riverside in locations
such as South Grand Island, and Cayuga Island in the city of
Niagara Falls.
Very strong southwest gales to 40-45 knots with storm force gusts
will also bring the potential for lakeshore flooding and shoreline
erosion to the eastern end of Lake Ontario through Sunday
morning. Lake levels are below normal, which will lower the
potential for lakeshore flooding, but with onshore winds this
strong along with expected considerable wave action the threat
is a bit more elevated for this event.
Temperatures in the teens and single digits will result in freezing
spray along the lakeshore areas, and water from lakeshore flooding
will likely freeze after the water levels subside.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001-002-010-011-
     019-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for NYZ001-010-
     019-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for NYZ004>006-
     013-014.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ006-007.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ021.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for LEZ020.
         Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/TMA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TMA
FXUS61 KBUF 231600                                              2022357 1600
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1100 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will impact the region through the Christmas
weekend. A strong Arctic cold front will exit by early afternoon
with increasingly widespread strong winds. Very strong winds are
expected to continue through Saturday with wind-driven heavy lake
effect snows northeast of the Lakes creating blizzard conditions.
Heavy lake snows will last through at least Christmas Day, possibly
lingering into the first part of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND...
Arctic front just about ready to enter north central New York late
this morning. Steady rain across the North County will change
rapidly to snow as it did across western New York earlier this
morning.
High confidence continues for expected BLIZZARD conditions downwind
of both Lake Erie, including now added Chautauqua county, as well as
for Jefferson County off Lake Ontario. These areas will experience
the strongest southwest winds. The expectation is that the
combination of heavy lake effect snow and very strong winds will
produce blizzard conditions across the Niagara Frontier and
Chautauqua county into Saturday night, with these same blizzard
conditions starting in Jefferson County by this afternoon and
lasting into Sunday morning.
A deep trough will dig across eastern U.S., becoming negatively
tilted with an associated surface cyclone rapidly intensifying
across southern Ontario today. Surface pressure drops rapidly (20mb
or more in only 12 hours) to around 971mb as it moves into Quebec
this evening, with the 23/00Z GFS/ECMWF eventually intensifying the
low to around 964mb tonight. The low will continue to pivot across
southern Quebec as it becomes vertically stacked tonight and
Saturday. An Arctic cold front will plow across the region today as
this low rapidly intensifies.
Very strong gusty winds behind the front, with cold air advection
allowing winds aloft to readily mix to the surface. Peak wind gusts
have already exceeded 70 mph across parts of western New York this
morning. Expect wind gusts of 65 to 75 mph near Lake Erie, from the
Niagara Frontier to Monroe County, as well as Jefferson County, with
gusts to 50 mph inland through tonight.
It's important to note that multiple hazards are addressed in our
WSW product, including the flash freeze, strong winds, snow
accumulation and dangerously cold wind chills. Blowing snow will
quickly become an issue, due to the strong winds and very dry snow.
Moving into tonight through Saturday morning, this is when the worst
conditions in terms of a combined hazard from heavy snow, blowing
snow and localized blizzard conditions will occur. Travel will be
very difficult, but more likely impossible where the heaviest snow
and strongest winds are occurring concurrently. Winds will be very
strong tonight in the mixed layer that are even shown to exceed 65
kts at times. This is the period when wind damage will potentially
be the highest and power outages could become widespread. This is a
real concern especially with the cold temperature expected for the
holiday weekend.
A note about the coverage of snow tonight into Saturday morning.
Given such strong winds, do not anticipate a classic narrower plume
of heavy lake enhanced snow for this time frame. Instead a more
widespread footprint to the moderate to heavy snow is more likely as
the strong winds will spray the heaviest snow around and cause
locations of heaviest snow to vary based on where localized
convergence occurs which will be hard to tell given such strong
winds. That and lower SLRs due to such strong winds (dendrites will
be shattered to pieces leaving a more fine snow type) is not good
news though as even where snow is not heavy, there will be a more
widespread impact with blowing, drifting snow leading to whiteout
conditions. As mentioned expect a widespread 1-3 inches of snow with
the FROPA, however totals in lake effect snows northeast of the
Lakes will be in the 3-7 inch range by the end of the day. Although
the widespread winds continue into tonight there will be very little
in the way of additional synoptic snow. However, wind-driven heavy
lake effect snow will continue across areas northeast of the Lakes,
where an additional 6-12 inches will be possible by Saturday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME AREAS INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...
No changes to existing headlines, with latest model guidance in line
with the forecast.
On Saturday the storm will move northward, passing just east of
James Bay Saturday night. There still will be a tight surface
pressure gradient across the region, with 925mb winds of 40-50 kts.
This will continue to support southwesterly winds gusting in excess
of 50 mph across the lake plains, with gusts 40 to 50 mph inland
during the day Saturday. Lake effect snow will continue northeast of
the lakes, with the combination of snow and blowing snow producing
blizzard conditions. The strong winds are expected to produce quite
wide lake effect bands, with cold temperatures resulting in small
and fluffy snowflakes which are prone to blowing and drifting.
Storm impacts on Saturday will be less outside of the lake snow
bands, but the gusty winds will produce extensive blowing snow in
areas with any snow on the ground. It also will be very cold, with
daytime wind chills averaging 5 to 15 below zero.
As the storm moves further away, winds will diminish some Saturday
night. Winds will still be strong enough to produce blowing snow,
especially east/northeast of the lakes where there will continue to
be lake effect snow. Winds will be strongest near the lake shore
(including downtown Buffalo) where gusts to 50 mph will still be
possible. Also, winds off Lake Erie will shift from a mean 230 flow
to 250 which will push lake snows southward across the Buffalo
Southtowns and into the Western Southern Tier Saturday night. The
strong winds will also allow lake snows to extend quite far inland,
into Livingston/Monroe counties. More of a SSW flow off Lake Ontario
will shift to the SW late, with lake snows focusing across Northern
Jefferson county from Watertown northward during Saturday night.
Expect blizzard conditions to continue in lake effect bands, and in
areas where extensive snow has fallen.
On Christmas Day winds will continue to gradually diminish, but lake
effect snows will continue with the lower winds allowing for more of
a banded lake effect structure. Off Lake Erie, cold air aloft and
ample moisture will support a fairly intense lake effect band.
However, there will be less wind with blowing and drifting snow more
localized. WSW flow will direct lake snows across the more
traditional snow belts across northwestern Chautauqua/Cattaraugus
counties and Southern Erie county. Travel will still be difficult,
but there should be some improvement for the Buffalo metro area.
Meanwhile, off Lake Ontario bands of heavy snow will shift across
most of Jefferson County and northern Lewis County maintaining
blizzard conditions into the day. Heavy snow will focus near
Watertown, with over a foot of accumulation likely on Christmas Day
alone. Further inland Christmas Day will be breezy and cold with
highs ranging from the upper teens to mid 20s.
Lowering inversion heights and a drier air mass will cause lake
snows to diminish in intensity off Lake Erie Sunday night.
Meanwhile, a weakening band will move back northward as winds shift
back to the southwest. Fairly intense lake snows will continue east
of Lake Ontario. It's possible that winter headlines may need to be
extended into Oswego County with around a foot of snow possible
across far northern portions of the county.
Storm total snow amounts will be almost entirely from lake effect
snow, with 2 to 3 feet of snow expected northeast of Lake Erie and
perhaps as much as 4 feet off Ontario. Amounts will drop off
dramatically outside of the band, although lake snow will carry
quite far inland due to the strong winds, with some upslope
enhancement across higher terrain. Also, any power outages that last
for a longer period will have a bigger impact since very cold
weather will last through the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shortwave trough rounding the base of the broader longwave trough
will provide one last shot of moisture on Monday. This will keep
lake effect snows going east and northeast of the lakes with
potential additional accumulations into Monday evening. After
that...lake effect snows will then begin to diminish significantly,
especially on Tuesday as environmental conditions becoming less
favorable with high pressure building into the region.
Wednesday and beyond...it looks like winter will take a break and
all but disappear from the lower 48 as we head towards the weekend.
That said...this might be it for the next week or so, at least in
terms of cold and winter weather. Highs by the weekend are forecast
to climb well into the 40s, we even could see some 50F readings or
higher. Looks like we are going to melt some or a lot of the snow
from this event. Stay tuned!
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lake effect snow will quickly develop northeast of Lake Erie behind
the cold front by midday, and during the afternoon northeast of Lake
Ontario. The combination of snow and blowing snow will create very
poor visibility of LIFR or lower northeast of the Lakes. Winds will
gust into the 35-45 knot range areawide, and up to 65 knots
northeast of Lake Erie creating blizzard conditions in some areas.
Expect similar flight conditions to last through tonight. Wind-
driven heavy lake effect snow and blowing snow will continue
northeast of the Lakes through tonight with LIFR or lower
visibilities, with unrestricted visibilities outside of lake bands.
Unfortunately, this affects most of our five main terminals. SW'erly
winds gusting to 50-60 knots northeast of the Lakes, with 35 to 45
knots elsewhere. Ceilings will be mainly MVFR in areas of lake
effect, with MVFR/low VFR elsewhere.
Outlook...
Saturday...Very windy with snow and severe blowing and drifting
snow. IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake effect snow to the
northeast and east of the lakes.
Sunday...Localized IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow to the northeast and east of the lakes.
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow east of the
lakes.
Tuesday...A return to VFR with lake snows ending.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong and wide-reaching storm will bring very strong winds across
the Great Lakes into the weekend. There will be high end gales with
frequent storm force gusts, or possibly even outright storm force
sustained winds, for which a Storm Warning for Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario remain in effect as outlined below. Wave heights may exceed
25 to 30 feet on both Lakes during this time. The strong winds and
plunging temperatures which will also pose a heavy freezing spray
hazard for this afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Thus, a Heavy
Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect for Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Intense southwest wind gusts to over 60 knots produced a seiche
event on Lake Erie this morning. The peak lake level at Buffalo
reached close to 9.7 feet above low water datum, which is close
to 2 feet above the 8 foot flood stage at 924 am this morning.
A secondary peak in the lake level is also expected through this
afternoon.
Sustained winds to at least 45 knots with frequent gusts over
storm force in the central and eastern basin will continue to
keep the lake level very high at Buffalo into tonight.
Significant lakeshore flooding is expected along the Lake Erie
shore, including Canalside, Buffalo Riverworks, the Hoover Beach
and Woodlawn areas of Hamburg, Dunkirk and Sunset Bay areas,
and Route 5 in Hamburg.
Flooding will also occur along the Niagara River. The elevated
Lake Erie water results in more water flowing down the Niagara
River, which can cause flooding along the riverside in locations
such as South Grand Island, and Cayuga Island in the city of
Niagara Falls.
Very strong southwest gales to 40-45 knots with storm force gusts
will also bring the potential for lakeshore flooding and shoreline
erosion to the eastern end of Lake Ontario this afternoon
through Sunday morning. Lake levels are below normal, which will
lower the potential for lakeshore flooding, but with onshore
winds this strong along with expected considerable wave action
the threat is a bit more elevated for this event.
Temperatures in the teens and single digits will result in freezing
spray along the lakeshore areas, and water from lakeshore flooding
will likely freeze after the water levels subside.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001-002-010-011-
     019-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for NYZ001-010-
     019-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for NYZ004>006-
     013-014.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ006-007.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ021.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for LEZ020.
         Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/TMA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TMA
FXUS61 KBUF 231211                                              2022357 1211
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
711 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will impact western and north central New
York right through the Christmas weekend. A strong Arctic cold front
arrives this morning which will change rain rapidly over to snow
with increasingly widespread strong winds developing. Very strong
winds are expected to continue tonight and Saturday with wind-driven
heavy lake effect snows northeast of the Lakes creating blizzard
conditions. Heavy lake snows will last through at least Christmas
Day, possibly lingering into the first part of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND...
Radar imagery early this morning showing back edge of steady rain
moving NNE across the North Country, while the leading edge of the
precip shield ahead of the approaching Arctic front just now getting
into the IAG Frontier. Rain/snow line currently has now made it to
Erie, PA and is quickly advancing NE. Between these two areas of
precip is a dry slot that is currently moving through the Genesee
Valley and Finger Lakes region has allowed steadier rain to
temporarily taper off. This dry slot will try to hold together as it
pivots toward central and northcentral NY through mid morning,
however feel this area may fill back in as we progress through the
morning as deeper moisture quickly advances north across NYS ahead
of the Arctic front.
High confidence continues for expected BLIZZARD conditions downwind
of both Lake Erie as well as for Jefferson County off Lake Ontario.
These areas will experience the strongest southwest winds.
The expectation is that the combination of heavy lake effect snow
and very strong winds will produce blizzard conditions across the
Niagara Frontier starting this afternoon and lasting into Saturday
night, with these same blizzard conditions starting in Jefferson
County by this afternoon and lasting into Sunday morning.
A deep trough will dig across eastern U.S., becoming negatively
tilted with an associated surface cyclone rapidly intensifying
across southern Ontario today. Surface pressure drops rapidly (20mb
or more in only 12 hours) to around 971mb as it moves into Quebec
this evening, with the 23/00Z GFS/ECMWF eventually intensifying the
low to around 964mb tonight. The low will continue to pivot across
southern Quebec as it becomes vertically stacked tonight and
Saturday. An Arctic cold front will plow across the region today as
this low rapidly intensifies.
The Arctic front tied to the intensifying low will be entering far
western New York around daybreak. The front will then quickly make
it to eastern Lake Ontario region by around midday. Along the front,
expect an abrupt change from rain to snow with intensity increased
due to frontogenesis along the front. One to three inches of snow
could occur with the FROPA, then conditions will rapidly worsen as
temperatures plummet some 20-25 degrees (possibly 30 degrees across
the southern Tier) into the teens by afternoon (single digits
Southern Tier), and eventually into the single digits higher terrain
east of Lake Ontario by early evening. Expect a rapid or 'flash'
freeze of the snow and any slush, leading to icy conditions. Strong
gusty winds will also arrive with the front, with cold air advection
allowing winds aloft to readily mix to the surface. Expect wind
gusts of 60 to 70 mph near Lake Erie, from the Niagara Frontier to
Monroe County, as well as Jefferson County, with gusts to 50 mph
inland today and tonight.
It's important to note that multiple hazards are addressed in our
WSW product, including the flash freeze, strong winds, snow
accumulation and dangerously cold wind chills. Blowing snow will
quickly become an issue, due to the strong winds and very dry snow.
Moving into tonight through Saturday morning, this is when the worst
conditions in terms of a combined hazard from heavy snow, blowing
snow and localized blizzard conditions will occur. Travel will be
very difficult, but more likely impossible where the heaviest snow
and strongest winds are occurring concurrently. Winds will be very
strong tonight in the mixed layer that are even shown to exceed 65
kts at times. This is the period when wind damage will potentially
be the highest and power outages could become widespread. This is a
real concern especially with the cold temperature expected for the
holiday weekend.
A note about the coverage of snow tonight into Saturday morning.
Given such strong winds, do not anticipate a classic narrower plume
of heavy lake enhanced snow for this time frame. Instead a more
widespread footprint to the moderate to heavy snow is more likely as
the strong winds will spray the heaviest snow around and cause
locations of heaviest snow to vary based on where localized
convergence occurs which will be hard to tell given such strong
winds. That and lower SLRs due to such strong winds (dendrites will
be shattered to pieces leaving a more fine snow type) is not good
news though as even where snow is not heavy, there will be a more
widespread impact with blowing, drifting snow leading to whiteout
conditions. As mentioned expect a widespread 1-3 inches of snow with
the FROPA, however totals in lake effect snows northeast of the
Lakes will be in the 3-7 inch range by the end of the day. Although
the widespread winds continue into tonight there will be very little
in the way of additional synoptic snow. However, wind-driven heavy
lake effect snow will continue across areas northeast of the Lakes,
where an additional 6-12 inches will be possible by Saturday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME AREAS INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...
No changes to existing headlines, with latest model guidance in line
with the forecast.
On Saturday the storm will move northward, passing just east of
James Bay Saturday night. There still will be a tight surface
pressure gradient across the region, with 925mb winds of 40-50 kts.
This will continue to support southwesterly winds gusting in excess
of 50 mph across the lake plains, with gusts 40 to 50 mph inland
during the day Saturday. Lake effect snow will continue northeast of
the lakes, with the combination of snow and blowing snow producing
blizzard conditions. The strong winds are expected to produce quite
wide lake effect bands, with cold temperatures resulting in small
and fluffy snowflakes which are prone to blowing and drifting.
Storm impacts on Saturday will be less outside of the lake snow
bands, but the gusty winds will produce extensive blowing snow in
areas with any snow on the ground. It also will be very cold, with
daytime wind chills averaging 5 to 15 below zero.
As the storm moves further away, winds will diminish some Saturday
night. Winds will still be strong enough to produce blowing snow,
especially east/northeast of the lakes where there will continue to
be lake effect snow. Winds will be strongest near the lake shore
(including downtown Buffalo) where gusts to 50 mph will still be
possible. Also, winds off Lake Erie will shift from a mean 230 flow
to 250 which will push lake snows southward across the Buffalo
Southtowns and into the Western Southern Tier Saturday night. The
strong winds will also allow lake snows to extend quite far inland,
into Livingston/Monroe counties. More of a SSW flow off Lake Ontario
will shift to the SW late, with lake snows focusing across Northern
Jefferson county from Watertown northward during Saturday night.
Expect blizzard conditions to continue in lake effect bands, and in
areas where extensive snow has fallen.
On Christmas Day winds will continue to gradually diminish, but lake
effect snows will continue with the lower winds allowing for more of
a banded lake effect structure. Off Lake Erie, cold air aloft and
ample moisture will support a fairly intense lake effect band.
However, there will be less wind with blowing and drifting snow more
localized. WSW flow will direct lake snows across the more
traditional snow belts across northwestern Chautauqua/Cattaraugus
counties and Southern Erie county. Travel will still be difficult,
but there should be some improvement for the Buffalo metro area.
Meanwhile, off Lake Ontario bands of heavy snow will shift across
most of Jefferson County and northern Lewis County maintaining
blizzard conditions into the day. Heavy snow will focus near
Watertown, with over a foot of accumulation likely on Christmas Day
alone. Further inland Christmas Day will be breezy and cold with
highs ranging from the upper teens to mid 20s.
Lowering inversion heights and a drier air mass will cause lake
snows to diminish in intensity off Lake Erie Sunday night.
Meanwhile, a weakening band will move back northward as winds shift
back to the southwest. Fairly intense lake snows will continue east
of Lake Ontario. It's possible that winter headlines may need to be
extended into Oswego County with around a foot of snow possible
across far northern portions of the county.
Storm total snow amounts will be almost entirely from lake effect
snow, with 2 to 3 feet of snow expected northeast of Lake Erie and
perhaps as much as 4 feet off Ontario. Amounts will drop off
dramatically outside of the band, although lake snow will carry
quite far inland due to the strong winds, with some upslope
enhancement across higher terrain. Also, any power outages that last
for a longer period will have a bigger impact since very cold
weather will last through the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shortwave trough rounding the base of the broader longwave trough
will provide one last shot of moisture on Monday. This will keep
lake effect snows going east and northeast of the lakes with
potential additional accumulations into Monday evening. After
that...lake effect snows will then begin to diminish significantly,
especially on Tuesday as environmental conditions becoming less
favorable with high pressure building into the region.
Wednesday and beyond...it looks like winter will take a break and
all but disappear from the lower 48 as we head towards the weekend.
That said...this might be it for the next week or so, at least in
terms of cold and winter weather. Highs by the weekend are forecast
to climb well into the 40s, we even could see some 50F readings or
higher. Looks like we are going to melt some or a lot of the snow
from this event. Stay tuned!
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expect IFR/LIFR ceilings this morning ahead of powerful cold front
that will plow across the area from southwest to northeast through
midday, with rain rapidly changing to snow as temperatures fall
sharply. One exception will be low VFR east of Lake Ontario through
mid morning before conditions deteriorate there as well. Otherwise,
lake effect snow will then quickly develop northeast of Lake Erie
behind the cold front by midday, and during the afternoon northeast
of Lake Ontario. The combination of snow and blowing snow will
create very poor visibility of LIFR or lower northeast of the Lakes.
Winds will gust into the 35-45 knot range areawide, and up to 55
knots northeast of Lake Erie creating blizzard conditions in some
areas.
Expect similar flight conditions to last through tonight. Wind-
driven heavy lake effect snow and blowing snow will continue
northeast of the Lakes through tonight with LIFR or lower
visibilities, with unrestricted visibilities outside of lake bands.
Unfortunately, this affects most of our five main terminals. SW'erly
winds gusting to 50-55 knots northeast of the Lakes, with 35 to 45
knots elsewhere. Ceilings will be mainly MVFR in areas of lake
effect, with MVFR/low VFR elsewhere.
Outlook...
Saturday...Very windy with snow and severe blowing and drifting
snow. IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake effect snow to the
northeast and east of the lakes.
Sunday...Localized IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow to the northeast and east of the lakes.
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow east of the
lakes.
Tuesday...A return to VFR with lake snows ending.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong and wide-reaching storm will bring very strong winds across
the Great Lakes today into the weekend. There will be high end gales
with frequent storm force gusts, or possibly even outright storm
force sustained winds, for which a Storm Warning for Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario remain in effect as outlined below. Wave heights may
exceed 25 to 30 feet on both Lakes during this time. The strong
winds and plunging temperatures which will also pose a heavy
freezing spray hazard for this afternoon through Sunday afternoon.
Thus, a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect for Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Intense winds behind the cold front today will produce a
SIGNIFICANT seiche event on Lake Erie which will rival the
highest lake levels ever experienced. Sustained winds to at
least 45 knots with frequent gusts over storm force in the
central and eastern basin will push the lake level well above
flood stage at Buffalo.
Once the winds start ramping up this morning there will be a
very rapid rise in the Lake Erie water level at the eastern end
of the basin. Lake Erie water levels at Buffalo are expected to
reach peak between 9 am today morning and 3 am Saturday
morning, with the potential for lakeshore flooding continuing
through Saturday.
Peak lake levels exceeding 11 feet above low water datum at Buffalo
are almost certain, with even the potential to exceed 12 feet
looking quite likely. If this were to happen it would be near
or even break the previous high lake level at Buffalo set back
on 12/2/1985 of 12.08 feet above of low water datum. For
historical perspective, peak winds for that event reached 66
mph, with this event we are looking at peak gusts at or
exceeding these speeds. Only question is the actual level of the
lake itself. The lake currently is at 2.5 feet above low water
datum at Buffalo which is just under a foot above the long term
monthly mean for December.
The two most recent highest events at Buffalo were 11.12 feet on
11/15/2020 and 10.6 feet on 11/1/2019.
Lake levels this high will result in significant and possibly
extensive lakeshore flooding and damage along the Lake Erie shore,
including Canalside, Buffalo Riverworks, the Hoover Beach and
Woodlawn areas of Hamburg, Dunkirk and Sunset Bay areas, and Route 5
in Hamburg.
Flooding will also occur along the Niagara River. The elevated
Lake Erie water results in more water flowing down the Niagara
River, which can cause flooding along the riverside in locations
such as South Grand Island, and Cayuga Island in the city of
Niagara Falls.
Very strong southwest gales to 40-45 knots with storm force gusts
will also bring the potential for lakeshore flooding and shoreline
erosion to the eastern end of Lake Ontario this afternoon
through Sunday morning. Lake levels are below normal, which will
lower the potential for lakeshore flooding, but with onshore
winds this strong along with expected considerable wave action
the threat is a bit more elevated for this event.
Temperatures in the teens and single digits will result in freezing
spray along the lakeshore areas, and water from lakeshore flooding
will likely freeze after the water levels subside.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001-002-010-011-
     085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for NYZ001-010-
     019-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for NYZ004>006-
     013-014.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Sunday for NYZ006-007.
     Blizzard Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Monday for NYZ008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ021.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for LEZ020.
         Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4
        PM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4
        PM EST Sunday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
         Saturday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
         Saturday for SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JM
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TMA
FXUS61 KBUF 231038                                              2022357 1039
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
538 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will impact western and north central New
York right through the Christmas weekend. A strong Arctic cold front
arrives this morning which will change rain rapidly over to snow
with increasingly widespread strong winds developing. Very strong
winds are expected to continue tonight and Saturday with wind-driven
heavy lake effect snows northeast of the Lakes creating blizzard
conditions. Heavy lake snows will last through at least Christmas
Day, possibly lingering into the first part of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND...
Radar imagery early this morning showing back edge of steady rain
near the Genesee Valley and moving NNE, while the leading edge of
the precip shield ahead of the approaching Arctic front just now
getting into southwestern NYS. Rain/snow line currently has now made
it to Erie, PA and is quickly advancing NE. Between these two areas
of precip is a dry slot that is currently moving into the Genesee
Valley and has allowed steadier rain to temporarily let up some
there. This dry slot will try to hold together as it pivots toward
central NY through mid morning, however feel this area may fill back
in as we progress through the morning as deeper moisture quickly
advances north across NYS ahead of the Arctic front.
High confidence continues for expected BLIZZARD conditions downwind
of both Lake Erie as well as for Jefferson County off Lake Ontario.
These areas will experience the strongest southwest winds.
The expectation is that the combination of heavy lake effect snow
and very strong winds will produce blizzard conditions across the
Niagara Frontier starting this afternoon and lasting into Saturday
night, with these same blizzard conditions starting in Jefferson
County by this afternoon and lasting into Sunday morning.
A deep trough will dig across eastern U.S., becoming negatively
tilted with an associated surface cyclone rapidly intensifying
across southern Ontario today. Surface pressure drops rapidly (20mb
or more in only 12 hours) to around 971mb as it moves into Quebec
this evening, with the 23/00Z GFS/ECMWF eventually intensifying the
low to around 964mb tonight. The low will continue to pivot across
southern Quebec as it becomes vertically stacked tonight and
Saturday. An Arctic cold front will plow across the region today as
this low rapidly intensifies.
The Arctic front tied to the intensifying low will be entering far
western New York around daybreak. The front will then quickly make
it to eastern Lake Ontario region by around midday. Along the front,
expect an abrupt change from rain to snow with intensity increased
due to frontogenesis along the front. One to three inches of snow
could occur with the FROPA, then conditions will rapidly worsen as
temperatures plummet some 20-25 degrees (possibly 30 degrees across
the southern Tier) into the teens by afternoon (single digits
Southern Tier), and eventually into the single digits higher terrain
east of Lake Ontario by early evening. Expect a rapid or 'flash'
freeze of the snow and any slush, leading to icy conditions. Strong
gusty winds will also arrive with the front, with cold air advection
allowing winds aloft to readily mix to the surface. Expect wind
gusts of 60 to 70 mph near Lake Erie, from the Niagara Frontier to
Monroe County, as well as Jefferson County, with gusts to 50 mph
inland today and tonight.
It's important to note that multiple hazards are addressed in our
WSW product, including the flash freeze, strong winds, snow
accumulation and dangerously cold wind chills. Blowing snow will
quickly become an issue, due to the strong winds and very dry snow.
Moving into tonight through Saturday morning, this is when the worst
conditions in terms of a combined hazard from heavy snow, blowing
snow and localized blizzard conditions will occur. Travel will be
very difficult, but more likely impossible where the heaviest snow
and strongest winds are occurring concurrently. Winds will be very
strong tonight in the mixed layer that are even shown to exceed 65
kts at times. This is the period when wind damage will potentially
be the highest and power outages could become widespread. This is a
real concern especially with the cold temperature expected for the
holiday weekend.
A note about the coverage of snow tonight into Saturday morning.
Given such strong winds, do not anticipate a classic narrower plume
of heavy lake enhanced snow for this time frame. Instead a more
widespread footprint to the moderate to heavy snow is more likely as
the strong winds will spray the heaviest snow around and cause
locations of heaviest snow to vary based on where localized
convergence occurs which will be hard to tell given such strong
winds. That and lower SLRs due to such strong winds (dendrites will
be shattered to pieces leaving a more fine snow type) is not good
news though as even where snow is not heavy, there will be a more
widespread impact with blowing, drifting snow leading to whiteout
conditions. As mentioned expect a widespread 1-3 inches of snow with
the FROPA, however totals in lake effect snows northeast of the
Lakes will be in the 3-7 inch range by the end of the day. Although
the widespread winds continue into tonight there will be very little
in the way of additional synoptic snow. However, wind-driven heavy
lake effect snow will continue across areas northeast of the Lakes,
where an additional 6-12 inches will be possible by Saturday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME AREAS INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...
No changes to existing headlines, with latest model guidance in line
with the forecast.
On Saturday the storm will move northward, passing just east of
James Bay Saturday night. There still will be a tight surface
pressure gradient across the region, with 925mb winds of 40-50 kts.
This will continue to support southwesterly winds gusting in excess
of 50 mph across the lake plains, with gusts 40 to 50 mph inland
during the day Saturday. Lake effect snow will continue northeast of
the lakes, with the combination of snow and blowing snow producing
blizzard conditions. The strong winds are expected to produce quite
wide lake effect bands, with cold temperatures resulting in small
and fluffy snowflakes which are prone to blowing and drifting.
Storm impacts on Saturday will be less outside of the lake snow
bands, but the gusty winds will produce extensive blowing snow in
areas with any snow on the ground. It also will be very cold, with
daytime wind chills averaging 5 to 15 below zero.
As the storm moves further away, winds will diminish some Saturday
night. Winds will still be strong enough to produce blowing snow,
especially east/northeast of the lakes where there will continue to
be lake effect snow. Winds will be strongest near the lake shore
(including downtown Buffalo) where gusts to 50 mph will still be
possible. Also, winds off Lake Erie will shift from a mean 230 flow
to 250 which will push lake snows southward across the Buffalo
Southtowns and into the Western Southern Tier Saturday night. The
strong winds will also allow lake snows to extend quite far inland,
into Livingston/Monroe counties. More of a SSW flow off Lake Ontario
will shift to the SW late, with lake snows focusing across Northern
Jefferson county from Watertown northward during Saturday night.
Expect blizzard conditions to continue in lake effect bands, and in
areas where extensive snow has fallen.
On Christmas Day winds will continue to gradually diminish, but lake
effect snows will continue with the lower winds allowing for more of
a banded lake effect structure. Off Lake Erie, cold air aloft and
ample moisture will support a fairly intense lake effect band.
However, there will be less wind with blowing and drifting snow more
localized. WSW flow will direct lake snows across the more
traditional snow belts across northwestern Chautauqua/Cattaraugus
counties and Southern Erie county. Travel will still be difficult,
but there should be some improvement for the Buffalo metro area.
Meanwhile, off Lake Ontario bands of heavy snow will shift across
most of Jefferson County and northern Lewis County maintaining
blizzard conditions into the day. Heavy snow will focus near
Watertown, with over a foot of accumulation likely on Christmas Day
alone. Further inland Christmas Day will be breezy and cold with
highs ranging from the upper teens to mid 20s.
Lowering inversion heights and a drier air mass will cause lake
snows to diminish in intensity off Lake Erie Sunday night.
Meanwhile, a weakening band will move back northward as winds shift
back to the southwest. Fairly intense lake snows will continue east
of Lake Ontario. It's possible that winter headlines may need to be
extended into Oswego County with around a foot of snow possible
across far northern portions of the county.
Storm total snow amounts will be almost entirely from lake effect
snow, with 2 to 3 feet of snow expected northeast of Lake Erie and
perhaps as much as 4 feet off Ontario. Amounts will drop off
dramatically outside of the band, although lake snow will carry
quite far inland due to the strong winds, with some upslope
enhancement across higher terrain. Also, any power outages that last
for a longer period will have a bigger impact since very cold
weather will last through the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shortwave trough rounding the base of the broader longwave trough
will provide one last shot of moisture on Monday. This will keep
lake effect snows going east and northeast of the lakes with
potential additional accumulations into Monday evening. After
that...lake effect snows will then begin to diminish significantly,
especially on Tuesday as environmental conditions becoming less
favorable with high pressure building into the region.
Wednesday and beyond...it looks like winter will take a break and
all but disappear from the lower 48 as we head towards the weekend.
That said...this might be it for the next week or so, at least in
terms of cold and winter weather. Highs by the weekend are forecast
to climb well into the 40s, we even could see some 50F readings or
higher. Looks like we are going to melt some or a lot of the snow
from this event. Stay tuned!
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A powerful cold front will plow cross the area from southwest
to northeast through midday, with rain rapidly changing to snow
as temperatures fall sharply. Lake effect snow will then quickly
develop northeast of Lake Erie behind the cold front by midday,
and during the afternoon northeast of Lake Ontario. The
combination of snow and blowing snow will create very poor
visibility of LIFR or lower northeast of the Lakes. Winds will
gust into the 35-45 knot range areawide, and up to 55 knots
northeast of Lake Erie creating blizzard conditions in some
areas. Otherwise, expect a mix of MVFR/IFR/LIFR ceilings this
morning ahead of the cold front. Ceilings will rise to MVFR in
the wake of the cold frontal passage and remain there through
the end of the period.
Outlook...
Saturday...Very windy with snow and severe blowing and drifting
snow. IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake effect snow to the
northeast and east of the lakes.
Sunday...Localized IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow to the northeast and east of the lakes.
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow east of the
lakes.
Tuesday...A return to VFR with lake snows ending.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong and wide-reaching storm will bring very strong winds across
the Great Lakes today into the weekend. There will be high end gales
with frequent storm force gusts, or possibly even outright storm
force sustained winds, for which a Storm Warning for Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario remain in effect as outlined below. Wave heights may
exceed 25 to 30 feet on both Lakes during this time. The strong
winds and plunging temperatures which will also pose a heavy
freezing spray hazard for this afternoon through Sunday afternoon.
Thus, a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect for Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Intense winds behind the cold front today will produce a
SIGNIFICANT seiche event on Lake Erie which will rival the
highest lake levels ever experienced. Sustained winds to at
least 45 knots with frequent gusts over storm force in the
central and eastern basin will push the lake level well above
flood stage at Buffalo.
Once the winds start ramping up this morning there will be a
very rapid rise in the Lake Erie water level at the eastern end
of the basin. Lake Erie water levels at Buffalo are expected to
reach peak between 9 am today morning and 3 am Saturday
morning, with the potential for lakeshore flooding continuing
through Saturday.
Peak lake levels exceeding 11 feet above low water datum at Buffalo
are almost certain, with even the potential to exceed 12 feet
looking quite likely. If this were to happen it would be near
or even break the previous high lake level at Buffalo set back
on 12/2/1985 of 12.08 feet above of low water datum. For
historical perspective, peak winds for that event reached 66
mph, with this event we are looking at peak gusts at or
exceeding these speeds. Only question is the actual level of the
lake itself. The lake currently is at 2.5 feet above low water
datum at Buffalo which is just under a foot above the long term
monthly mean for December.
The two most recent highest events at Buffalo were 11.12 feet on
11/15/2020 and 10.6 feet on 11/1/2019.
Lake levels this high will result in significant and possibly
extensive lakeshore flooding and damage along the Lake Erie shore,
including Canalside, Buffalo Riverworks, the Hoover Beach and
Woodlawn areas of Hamburg, Dunkirk and Sunset Bay areas, and Route 5
in Hamburg.
Flooding will also occur along the Niagara River. The elevated
Lake Erie water results in more water flowing down the Niagara
River, which can cause flooding along the riverside in locations
such as South Grand Island, and Cayuga Island in the city of
Niagara Falls.
Very strong southwest gales to 40-45 knots with storm force gusts
will also bring the potential for lakeshore flooding and shoreline
erosion to the eastern end of Lake Ontario this afternoon
through Sunday morning. Lake levels are below normal, which will
lower the potential for lakeshore flooding, but with onshore
winds this strong along with expected considerable wave action
the threat is a bit more elevated for this event.
Temperatures in the teens and single digits will result in freezing
spray along the lakeshore areas, and water from lakeshore flooding
will likely freeze after the water levels subside.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001-002-010-011-
     085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for NYZ001-010-
     019-085.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
     Sunday for NYZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     Saturday for NYZ004>006-013-014.
     High Wind Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ006>008.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Sunday for NYZ006-007.
     Blizzard Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Monday for NYZ008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     Sunday for NYZ021.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for LEZ020.
         Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4
        PM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4
        PM EST Sunday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
         Saturday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
         Saturday for SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JM
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Hitchcock/JM
MARINE...JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TMA
FXUS61 KBUF 230702                                              2022357 0703
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
202 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will impact western and north central New
York right through the Christmas weekend, starting with rain through
the remainder of the overnight. Strong localized downslope winds
will also impact areas east of Lake Ontario overnight. A strong cold
front arrives Friday morning which will change precipitation rapidly
over to snow with increasingly widespread strong winds developing.
Very strong winds are expected to continue Friday night and Saturday
with wind-driven heavy lake effect snows northeast of the Lakes
creating blizzard conditions. Heavy lake snows will last through at
least Christmas Day, possibly lingering into the first part of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
...Strong to Damaging Downslope Winds East of Lake Ontario
into Friday morning...
Radar imagery showing several waves of rain moving from south to
north across the region overnight in the warm advection and moisture
transport regime ahead of a rapidly strengthening system over the
midwest. Any wet snow found earlier east of Lake Ontario has now
changed over to a cold rain as well. A dry slot pinched towards far
WNY overnight may temporarily taper off some of this steadier rain
before a cold front reaches our doorsteps early Friday morning.
Average basin rainfall amounts will be 0.25-0.50 inches, with
localized amounts approaching an inch across the eastern Lake
Ontario region. Downslope areas may also see lighter rainfall
amounts.
The much larger concern for the remainder of the overnight continues
to be from dangerously strong downslope winds across the northern
and northwestern facing slopes of the Tug Hill plateau. An
impressive 80+ knot low level jet is currently passing directly over
the eastern Lake Ontario region. Normally within a warm advection
regime these winds would remain aloft above a pronounced inversion,
but in areas where the winds are perpendicular to surface barriers
such as ridges or plateaus, downsloping can mechanically
mix/transport these winds to the surface. This will be the case
north and northwest of the Tug Hill plateau, and in this particular
case, to a much lesser degree along the Chautauqua Ridge where there
will be much lower wind speeds just off the deck. The strong
southeasterly flow will also be funneled down the Black River
valley, enhancing winds in that area as well. Thus, a High Wind
Warning remains in effect for the eastern Lake Ontario region
through midday Friday for winds that could gust up to 65 mph.
However, the strongest winds should be over by mid morning as the .
strong LLJ moves north of the region.
A non-diurnal temperature trend through early Friday morning due to
the moderately strong warm advection found ahead of the approaching
cold front. Mercury readings will climb into the upper 30s to mid
40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND...
Thinking has changed little as BLIZZARD conditions are expected
downwind of both Lake Erie as well as for Jefferson county off Lake
Ontario. These areas will experience the strongest southwest winds.
The expectation is that the combination of lake effect snow and very
strong winds will produce blizzard conditions across the Niagara
Frontier starting Friday afternoon and lasting into Saturday night,
with these same blizzard conditions starting in Jefferson county by
Friday afternoon and lasting into Sunday morning.
A trough will dig across the Mississippi Valley, becoming negatively
tilted with a surface cyclone intensifying across Southern Ontario
Friday. Surface pressure drops rapidly (about 20 mb in only 12
hours) to around 972mb, with the 12Z GFS/ECMWF eventually
intensifying the low to around 962mb. The low will pivot across
southern Quebec as it becomes vertically stacked Friday night and
Saturday. An arctic cold front will plow across the region Friday as
this low rapidly intensifies.
Daybreak Friday, the Arctic front tied to the intensifying low will
be entering far western New York. The front will quickly make it to
eastern Lake Ontario region by around midday. Along the front,
expect an abrupt change from rain to snow with intensity increased
due to frontogenesis along the front. An inch or two of snow could
occur then conditions will worsen as temperatures plummet some 20-25
degrees into the teens by afternoon, then into the single digits
west and teens east by nightfall. Expect a rapid freeze of the snow
and any slush, leading to icy conditions. Strong gusty winds will
also arrive with the front, with cold air advection allowing winds
aloft to readily mix to the surface. Expect wind gusts of 60 to 70
mph near Lake Erie, from the Niagara Frontier to Monroe county, to
Jefferson County with gusts to 50 mph inland Friday and Friday night.
It's important to note that multiple hazards are addressed in our
WSW product, including the flash freeze, strong winds, snow
accumulation and dangerously cold wind chills. Blowing snow will
quickly become an issue, due to the strong winds and very dry snow.
Moving into Friday night through Saturday morning, this is when the
worst conditions in terms of a combined hazard from heavy snow,
blowing snow, and localized blizzard conditions will occur. Travel
will be very difficult, but more likely impossible where the
heaviest snow and strongest winds are occurring concurrently. Winds
will be very strong on Friday night in the mixed layer that are even
shown to exceed 65 kts at times. This is the period when wind damage
will potentially be the highest and power outages could become
widespread. This is a real concern especially with the cold
temperature expected for the holiday weekend.
A note about the coverage of snow Friday night into Saturday
morning. Given such strong winds, do not anticipate a classic
narrower plume of heavy lake enhanced snow for this time frame.
Instead a more widespread footprint to the moderate to heavy snow is
more likely as the strong winds will spray the heaviest snow around
and cause locations of heaviest snow to vary based on where
localized convergence occurs which will be hard to tell given such
strong winds. That and lower SLRs due to such strong winds
(dendrites will be shattered to pieces leaving a more fine snow
type) is not good news though as even where snow is not heavy, there
will be a more widespread impact with blowing, drifting snow leading
to whiteout conditions. Although storm totals will be significantly
more, expect amounts in the 6 to 15 inch range across the Niagara
Frontier through Saturday morning, although this will be more than
enough to result in significant issues.

A very tight surface pressure gradient will remain in place across
our forecast area on the day before Christmas, so while the winds
should diminish as bit by way of a weaker LLJ especially later in
the day, they will still be strong enough to possibly cause issues
and certainly to support continued at least areas of blowing snow.
The more efficient (fluffy) snowfall is expected Saturday through
Sunday. Winds will continue to gradually diminish through Sunday,
with the impacts of blowing snow also diminishing. Even through
blowing snow impacts will diminish the blizzard conditions Sunday
there still will be lake effect snow and other impacts lasting
through Sunday and into Sunday night off Lake Erie.
Storm total snow amounts will be almost entirely from lake effect
snow, with 1 to 3 feet of snow expected northeast of Lake Erie and
perhaps as much as 4 feet off Ontario. Amounts will drop off
dramatically outside of the band, although lake snow will carry
quite far inland due to the strong winds, with some upslope
enhancement across higher terrain.
It will be quite cold with Saturdays highs ranging from the single
digits over the Srn Tier to the teens and low 20s elsewhere
resulting wind chills falling to as low as 10 to 25 degrees below
zero. Again, this is why any power outages that last for longer
period of time could have bigger impact. Christmas Day will remain
cold with highs only in the teens to low 20s and winds to 30 mph
generating wind chills of 10 below to just a few degrees abv zero.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shortwave trough rounding the base of the broader longwave trough
will provide one last shot of moisture on Monday. This will keep
lake effect snows going east and northeast of the lakes with
potential additional accumulations into Monday evening. After
that...lake effect snows will then begin to diminish significantly,
especially on Tuesday as environmental conditions becoming less
favorable with high pressure building into the region.
Wednesday and beyond...it looks like winter will take a break and
all but disappear from the lower 48 as we head towards the weekend.
That said...this might be it for the next week or so, at least in
terms of cold and winter weather. Highs by the weekend are forecast
to climb well into the 40s, we even could see some 50F readings or
higher. Looks like we are going to melt some or a lot of the snow
from this event. Stay tuned!
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Periods of rain will continue to cross the region overnight as a
plume of deep moisture moves north ahead of a rapidly deepening
system over the midwest. Low VFR will be possible temporarily for
KBUF/KIAG late tonight as a transient dry slot works north into far
western NY. Same for KART, but these low VFR ceilings are due to
strong SE'erly downsloping winds. Otherwise, expect mainly MVFR
lower terrain and IFR/LIFR higher terrain through early Friday
morning. Outside of the stronger downslope winds across the eastern
Lake Ontario region (KART), winds are not expected to be an issue
through early Friday morning.
A powerful cold front will cross the area from west to east Friday
with rain changing to snow in a matter of minutes as temperatures
fall sharply. Lake effect snow will quickly develop northeast of
Lake Erie behind the cold front by midday, and during the afternoon
northeast of Lake Ontario. The combination of snow and blowing snow
will create very poor visibility of LIFR or lower northeast of the
Lakes. Winds will gust into the 35-45 knot range areawide, and up to
55 knots northeast of Lake Erie creating blizzard conditions in some
areas. Otherwise, IFR ceilings Friday morning ahead of the cold
front, will rise to MVFR in the wake of the cold frontal passage.
Outlook...
Saturday...Very windy with snow and severe blowing and drifting
snow. IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake effect snow to the
northeast and east of the lakes.
Sunday...Localized IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow to the northeast and east of the lakes.
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow east of the
lakes.
Tuesday...A return to VFR with lake snows ending.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate southeast winds will be found across central and eastern
Lake Ontario through early Friday morning as a rapidly deepening low
approaches from the southwest. Winds will not be an issue elsewhere
through late tonight.
A strong and wide-reaching storm will bring very strong winds across
the Great Lakes Friday into the weekend. There will be high end
gales with frequent storm force gusts, or possibly even outright
storm force sustained winds, for which a Storm Warning for Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario remain in effect as outlined below. Wave heights
may exceed 25 to 30 feet on both Lakes during this time. The strong
winds and plunging temperatures which will also pose a heavy
freezing spray hazard for Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.
Thus, a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect for Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Intense winds behind the cold front Friday will produce a
SIGNIFICANT seiche event on Lake Erie which will rival the highest
lake levels ever experienced. Sustained winds to at least 45 knots
with frequent gusts over storm force in the central and eastern
basin will push the lake level well above flood stage at Buffalo.
Once the winds start ramping up Friday morning there will be a very
rapid rise in the Lake Erie water level at the eastern end of the
basin. Lake Erie water levels at Buffalo are expected to reach peak
between 9 am Friday morning and 3 am Saturday morning, with the
potential for lakeshore flooding continuing through Saturday.
Peak lake levels exceeding 11 feet above low water datum at Buffalo
are almost certain, with even the potential to exceed 12 feet
looking quite likely. If this were to happen it would be near
or even break the previous high lake level at Buffalo set back
on 12/2/1985 of 12.08 feet above of low water datum. For
historical perspective, peak winds for that event reached 66
mph, with this event we are looking at peak gusts at or
exceeding these speeds. Only question is the actual level of the
lake itself. The lake currently is at 2.5 feet above low water
datum at Buffalo which is just under a foot above the long term
monthly mean for December.
The two most recent highest events at Buffalo were 11.12 feet on
11/15/2020 and 10.6 feet on 11/1/2019.
Lake levels this high will result in significant and possibly
extensive lakeshore flooding and damage along the Lake Erie shore,
including Canalside, Buffalo Riverworks, the Hoover Beach and
Woodlawn areas of Hamburg, Dunkirk and Sunset Bay areas, and Route 5
in Hamburg.
Flooding will also occur along the Niagara River. The elevated
Lake Erie water results in more water flowing down the Niagara
River, which can cause flooding along the riverside in locations
such as South Grand Island, and Cayuga Island in the city of
Niagara Falls.
Very strong southwest gales to 40-45 knots with storm force gusts
will also bring the potential for lakeshore flooding and shoreline
erosion to the eastern end of Lake Ontario Friday afternoon through
Sunday morning. Lake levels are below normal, which will lower the
potential for lakeshore flooding, but with onshore winds this strong
along with expected considerable wave action the threat is a bit
more elevated for this event.
Temperatures in the teens and single digits will result in freezing
spray along the lakeshore areas, and water from lakeshore flooding
will likely freeze after the water levels subside.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Blizzard Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     NYZ001-002-010-011-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     Saturday for NYZ001-010-019-085.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
     Sunday for NYZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     Saturday for NYZ004>006-013-014.
     High Wind Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ006>008.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Sunday for NYZ006-007.
     Blizzard Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Monday for NYZ008.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Monday
     for NYZ012-019-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     Sunday for NYZ021.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Saturday for
         LEZ020.
         Storm Warning from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Saturday
         for LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4
        PM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
         Saturday for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4
        PM EST Sunday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
         Saturday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
         Saturday for SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/Hitchcock/JM/Thomas
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JM/Thomas
SHORT TERM...Apffel/JLA/TMA
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Hitchcock/JM
MARINE...AR/JM/Thomas
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TMA
FXUS61 KBUF 230231                                              2022357 0232
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
931 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will impact western and north central New
York tonight right through the Christmas weekend. Rain and snow this
evening will become all rain through the overnight. Strong localized
downslope winds will then impact areas east of Lake Ontario tonight.
A strong cold front arrives Friday morning which will change
precipitation rapidly over to snow with increasingly widespread
strong winds developing. Very strong winds are expected to continue
Friday night and Saturday with wind-driven heavy lake effect snows
northeast of the Lakes creating blizzard conditions. Heavy lake
snows will last through at least Christmas Day, possibly lingering
into the first part of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
...Strong to Damaging Downslope Winds East of Lake Ontario
Tonight...
Radar imagery showing several waves of rain moving from south to
north across the region this evening in the warm advection and
moisture transport regime ahead of a rapidly strengthening system
over the midwest. A few areas of wet snow are still found east of
Lake Ontario where temperatures are near freezing, but this will
change to rain overnight as temperatures continue to rise. A dry
slot pinched towards WNY may taper off this rain before a cold front
reaches our doorsteps early tomorrow morning. Average basin rainfall
amounts will be 0.25-0.50 inches, with localized amounts approaching
an inch across the eastern Lake Ontario region. Downslope areas may
also see lighter rainfall amounts.
The much larger concern for tonight will come from dangerously
strong downslope winds across the northern and northwestern facing
slopes of the Tug Hill plateau. An impressive 80+ knot low level jet
passes directly over the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Normally
within a warm advection regime these winds would remain aloft above
a pronounced inversion, but in areas where the winds are
perpendicular to surface barriers such as ridges or plateaus,
downsloping can mechanically mix/transport these winds to the
surface. This will be the case north and northwest of the Tug Hill
plateau, and in this particular case, to a lesser degree along the
Chautauqua Ridge where there will be much lower wind speeds just off
the deck. The strong southeasterly flow will also be funneled down
the Black River valley, enhancing winds in that area as well. Thus,
a High Wind Warning has been issued for the eastern Lake Ontario
region from this evening through midday Friday for winds that could
gust up to 65 mph.
A non-diurnal temperature trend can be expected tonight due to the
moderately strong warm advection found ahead of the approaching cold
front. Mercury readings that begin the night in the upper 30s (low
to mid 30s higher terrain east of Lake Ontario), will climb at least
several degrees through the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND...
Thinking has changed little as BLIZZARD conditions are expected
downwind of both Lake Erie as well as for Jefferson county off Lake
Ontario. These areas will experience the strongest southwest winds.
The expectation is that the combination of lake effect snow and very
strong winds will produce blizzard conditions across the Niagara
Frontier starting Friday afternoon and lasting into Saturday night,
with these same blizzard conditions starting in Jefferson county by
Friday afternoon and lasting into Sunday morning.
A trough will dig across the Mississippi Valley, becoming negatively
tilted with a surface cyclone intensifying across Southern Ontario
Friday. Surface pressure drops rapidly (about 20 mb in only 12
hours) to around 972mb, with the 12Z GFS/ECMWF eventually
intensifying the low to around 962mb. The low will pivot across
southern Quebec as it becomes vertically stacked Friday night and
Saturday. An arctic cold front will plow across the region Friday as
this low rapidly intensifies.
Daybreak Friday, the Arctic front tied to the intensifying low will
be entering far western New York. The front will quickly make it to
eastern Lake Ontario region by around midday. Along the front,
expect an abrupt change from rain to snow with intensity increased
due to frontogenesis along the front. An inch or two of snow could
occur then conditions will worsen as temperatures plummet some 20-25
degrees into the teens by afternoon, then into the single digits
west and teens east by nightfall. Expect a rapid freeze of the snow
and any slush, leading to icy conditions. Strong gusty winds will
also arrive with the front, with cold air advection allowing winds
aloft to readily mix to the surface. Expect wind gusts of 60 to 70
mph near Lake Erie, from the Niagara Frontier to Monroe county, to
Jefferson County with gusts to 50 mph inland Friday and Friday night.
It's important to note that multiple hazards are addressed in our
WSW product, including the flash freeze, strong winds, snow
accumulation and dangerously cold wind chills. Blowing snow will
quickly become an issue, due to the strong winds and very dry snow.
Moving into Friday night through Saturday morning, this is when the
worst conditions in terms of a combined hazard from heavy snow,
blowing snow, and localized blizzard conditions will occur. Travel
will be very difficult, but more likely impossible where the
heaviest snow and strongest winds are occurring concurrently. Winds
will be very strong on Friday night in the mixed layer that are even
shown to exceed 65 kts at times. This is the period when wind damage
will potentially be the highest and power outages could become
widespread. This is a real concern especially with the cold
temperature expected for the holiday weekend.
A note about the coverage of snow Friday night into Saturday
morning. Given such strong winds, do not anticipate a classic
narrower plume of heavy lake enhanced snow for this time frame.
Instead a more widespread footprint to the moderate to heavy snow is
more likely as the strong winds will spray the heaviest snow around
and cause locations of heaviest snow to vary based on where
localized convergence occurs which will be hard to tell given such
strong winds. That and lower SLRs due to such strong winds
(dendrites will be shattered to pieces leaving a more fine snow
type) is not good news though as even where snow is not heavy, there
will be a more widespread impact with blowing, drifting snow leading
to whiteout conditions. Although storm totals will be significantly
more, expect amounts in the 6 to 15 inch range across the Niagara
Frontier through Saturday morning, although this will be more than
enough to result in significant issues.

A very tight surface pressure gradient will remain in place across
our forecast area on the day before Christmas, so while the winds
should diminish as bit by way of a weaker LLJ especially later in
the day, they will still be strong enough to possibly cause issues
and certainly to support continued at least areas of blowing snow.
The more efficient (fluffy) snowfall is expected Saturday through
Sunday. Winds will continue to gradually diminish through Sunday,
with the impacts of blowing snow also diminishing. Even through
blowing snow impacts will diminish the blizzard conditions Sunday
there still will be lake effect snow and other impacts lasting
through Sunday and into Sunday night off Lake Erie.
Storm total snow amounts will be almost entirely from lake effect
snow, with 1 to 3 feet of snow expected northeast of Lake Erie and
perhaps as much as 4 feet off Ontario. Amounts will drop off
dramatically outside of the band, although lake snow will carry
quite far inland due to the strong winds, with some upslope
enhancement across higher terrain.
It will be quite cold with Saturdays highs ranging from the single
digits over the Srn Tier to the teens and low 20s elsewhere
resulting wind chills falling to as low as 10 to 25 degrees below
zero. Again, this is why any power outages that last for longer
period of time could have bigger impact. Christmas Day will remain
cold with highs only in the teens to low 20s and winds to 30 mph
generating wind chills of 10 below to just a few degrees abv zero.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shortwave trough rounding the base of the broader longwave trough
will provide one last shot of moisture on Monday. This will keep
lake effect snows going east and northeast of the lakes with
potential additional accumulations into Monday evening. After
that...lake effect snows will then begin to diminish significantly,
especially on Tuesday as environmental conditions becoming less
favorable with high pressure building into the region.
Wednesday and beyond...it looks like winter will take a break and
all but disappear from the lower 48 as we head towards the weekend.
That said...this might be it for the next week or so, at least in
terms of cold and winter weather. Highs by the weekend are forecast
to climb well into the 40s, we even could see some 50F readings or
higher. Looks like we are going to melt some or a lot of the snow
from this event. Stay tuned!
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Periods of rain will continue to cross the region tonight from south
to north as a plume of deep moisture moves north ahead of a rapidly
deepening system over the midwest. CIGS will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR
overnight as moisture deepens. Winds will increase overnight, with
gusts of 25-35 knots areawide and locally over 50 knots across the
eastern Lake Ontario region, especially in downslope areas north of
the Tug Hill Plateau.
A powerful cold front will cross the area from west to east Friday
with rain changing to snow in a matter of minutes as temperatures
fall sharply. Lake effect snow will quickly develop northeast of
Lake Erie behind the cold front by midday, and during the afternoon
northeast of Lake Ontario. The combination of snow and blowing snow
will create very poor visibility of LIFR or lower northeast of the
lakes. Winds will gust into the 35-45 knot range areawide, and up to
55 knots northeast of Lake Erie creating blizzard conditions in some
areas.
Outlook...
Saturday...Very windy with snow and severe blowing and drifting
snow. IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake effect snow to the
northeast and east of the lakes.
Sunday...Localized IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow to the northeast and east of the lakes.
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow east of the
lakes.
Tuesday...A return to VFR with lake snows ending.
&&
.MARINE...
Southeast winds will increase tonight as a rapidly deepening low
approaches from the southwest, especially across central and eastern
Lake Ontario.
A strong and wide-reaching storm will bring very strong winds across
the Great Lakes Friday into the weekend. There will be high end
gales with frequent storm force gusts, or possibly even outright
storm force sustained winds, for which a Storm Warning for Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario remain in effect as outlined below. Wave heights
may exceed 20 feet on both Lakes during this time. The strong winds
and plunging temperatures which will also pose a potential heavy
freezing spray hazard for Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.
Thus, a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect for Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Intense winds behind the cold front Friday will produce a
SIGNIFICANT seiche event on Lake Erie which will rival the highest
lake levels ever experienced. Sustained winds to at least 45 knots
with frequent gusts over storm force in the central and eastern
basin will push the lake level well above flood stage at Buffalo.
Once the winds start ramping up Friday morning there will be a very
rapid rise in the Lake Erie water level at the eastern end of the
basin. Lake Erie water levels at Buffalo are expected to reach peak
between 9 am Friday morning and 3 am Saturday morning, with the
potential for lakeshore flooding continuing through Saturday.
Peak lake levels exceeding 11 feet above low water datum at Buffalo
are almost certain, with even the potential to exceed 12 feet
looking quite likely. If this were to happen it would be near
or even break the previous high lake level at Buffalo set back
on 12/2/1985 of 12.08 feet above of low water datum. For
historical perspective, peak winds for that event reached 66
mph, with this event we are looking at peak gusts at or
exceeding these speeds. Only question is the actual level of the
lake itself. The lake currently is at 2.5 feet above low water
datum at Buffalo which is just under a foot above the long term
monthly mean for December.
The two most recent highest events at Buffalo were 11.12 feet on
11/15/2020 and 10.6 feet on 11/1/2019.
Lake levels this high will result in significant and possibly
extensive lakeshore flooding and damage along the Lake Erie shore,
including Canalside, Buffalo Riverworks, the Hoover Beach and
Woodlawn areas of Hamburg, Dunkirk and Sunset Bay areas, and Route 5
in Hamburg.
Flooding will also occur along the Niagara River. The elevated
Lake Erie water results in more water flowing down the Niagara
River, which can cause flooding along the riverside in locations
such as South Grand Island, and Cayuga Island in the city of
Niagara Falls.
Very strong southwest gales to 40-45 knots with storm force gusts
will also bring the potential for lakeshore flooding and shoreline
erosion to the eastern end of Lake Ontario Friday afternoon through
Sunday morning. Lake levels are below normal, which will lower the
potential for lakeshore flooding, but with onshore winds this strong
along with expected considerable wave action the threat is a bit
more elevated for this event.
Temperatures in the teens and single digits will result in freezing
spray along the lakeshore areas, and water from lakeshore flooding
will likely freeze after the water levels subside.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Blizzard Warning from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     NYZ001-002-010-011-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning from 7 AM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday
     for NYZ001-010-019-085.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     NYZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday
     for NYZ004>006-013-014.
     High Wind Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for NYZ006>008.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for NYZ006-007.
     Blizzard Warning from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     NYZ008.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Monday for
     NYZ012-019-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 7 PM EST Sunday
     for NYZ021.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday for LEZ020.
         Storm Warning from 7 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 PM Friday to 4 PM EST
         Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning from 7 AM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday
         for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 PM Friday to 4 PM EST
         Sunday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Storm Warning from 1 PM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday
         for SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/Hitchcock/JM/Thomas
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JM/Thomas
SHORT TERM...Apffel/JLA/TMA
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...AR/JM/Thomas
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TMA
WXTLIST: done
WXTLIST APR=AFD WST=KBUF DAY=22358 TIM=00:00:59 23:59:59 NUM=12
FXUS61 KBUF 242346                                              2022358 2347
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
646 PM EST Sat Dec 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will continue to batter the region through
the Christmas weekend. Very strong winds will continue into this
evening with wind-driven heavy lake effect snows northeast of
the Lakes creating severe blizzard conditions. Heavy lake snows
will last through at least Christmas Day, possibly lingering
into the first part of next week. Following this storm, a
significant warming trend will develop later next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...LIFE THREATENING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY TONIGHT...
SEVERE BLIZZARD conditions will continue tonight across the Buffalo
Metro area and Niagara Frontier, and in Jefferson County with heavy
lake effect snow and near zero visibility as blowing snow is driven
by 50-55 mph wind gusts.
Very strong surface low pressure vertically stacked beneath a deep
mid level low will continue to spin near the southern end of James
Bay this evening, then move northeast across northern Quebec
Sunday and Sunday night, gradually weakening with time. This
will maintain a cyclonic flow of cold air and a favorable lake
effect snow setup through Sunday night.
Wind gusts will continue to run in the 50-55 mph range through
early evening, then gradually start to subside tonight and
Sunday. This will start to end the severe blizzard conditions by
Sunday, but winds will still be strong enough to produce
blowing and drifting snow through Sunday evening before
diminishing further.
Off Lake Erie...
The band of heavy lake effect snow is starting to drift south this
evening, now centered across the Buffalo Northtowns and from
downtown Buffalo to the airport. A notable wind shift is about to
arrive, with a shortwave crossing the lower Great Lakes this evening
marked by an area of cold cloud tops in IR satellite imagery. The
band of snow will reach the Buffalo Southtowns by around or shortly
after midnight, then should move further south into southern Erie
and Wyoming counties by daybreak. Snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour
will continue through this time frame.
Sunday morning the lake effect snow will continue to drift south,
centering on southern Erie and Wyoming counties by mid to late
morning, and also the far northern and western portions of
Chautauqua County and northwest Cattaraugus county. The band will
weaken in intensity by Sunday afternoon as fetch shortens and
convergence weakens over the lake. The weakened band of snow will
move back north into Buffalo late Sunday night and Monday morning,
but it will be in a much weaker state by then.
Additional accumulations of 1-3 feet are likely in the most
persistent bands, bringing storm totals into the 4-5 foot range in
the hardest hit areas.
Off Lake Ontario...
Lake effect snow will remain disorganized through this evening,
but with severe blowing snow roads will still be nearly
impassable. Boundary layer flow will begin to veer to the WSW
late tonight and Sunday morning, increasing fetch across Lake
Ontario and allowing for the lake effect snow to intensify
across northern Jefferson County, then drift south across
Watertown to southern Jefferson and northern/western Lewis
counties by late afternoon or early evening. The band of snow
will continue to intensify through this time frame, with 3-4
inch per hour snowfall rates possible.
The lake effect snow will continue across southern Jefferson and
Lewis counties through late Sunday night or early Monday morning. On
Monday the lake effect snow will move quickly back north across
Jefferson County and weaken with time as boundary layer flow veers
to the SSW.

Additional accumulations of 2-4 feet are possible in the most
persistent bands across southern Jefferson and northern/western
Lewis counties, and 1-2 feet for northern Jefferson County with
around a foot across far northern Oswego County.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday lake snows will be in a weaker state with falling Lake
inversion heights. However a backing flow will bring the snow
back to the City of Buffalo with an inch of snow falling late
Sunday night and Monday morning. Later in the day the band of
snow will be weakening over the North Country as it will lose
its upstream connection to now Lake Erie as well as having the
band oriented over a much smaller fetch of lake.
A shortwave digging around the large upper level trough Monday
night will bring additional synoptic moisture back over the
Lakes. This trough will reinvigorate the lake snows on a SW to
SSW flow...highlighting Niagara County and the Saint Lawrence
Valley Monday night before the bands shift southward. Several
inches of snow is again likely off Lake Erie, with additional
half foot plus east of Lake Ontario. While the focus of snow
will be lake effect, the passing shortwave may also generate a
few light snow showers outside of these bands.
Temperatures will be well below normal this period, with highs
some 10 degrees or more below normal. Highs both Sunday and
Monday will be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Lows will be in
the teens to interior single digits. These temperatures and
still gusty winds will generate wind chill values in the single
digits through much of this time period.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Anomalous upper ridge builds overhead during the mid to late week
period. High confidence in a gradual and welcome warming trend
through this period, with the next chance for precipitation in the
form of rain showers coming late in the week as the next trough
approaches. A lot of the area will sees high temperatures in the 50s
both Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tonight...lake snows off Lake Erie will continue to slowly drift
south impacting terminals east and southeast of the lake. Expect
IFR/LIFR flight conditions to continue in the band of lake effect
snow with significant blowing and drifting. Off Lake Ontario...the
southward drift of the lake band will likely not occur until early
Sunday morning. KART should expect to see a continuation of LIFR/IFR
through the day Sunday before the band settles south of the
terminal.
Outlook...
Sunday...Localized IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow. Lake effect snows will be south of KBUF, and south of
KART by late Sunday afternoon.
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow lifting back
northward towards Buffalo and Watertown
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR early in lake snows. A return to VFR with lake
snows ending through the afternoon.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong and wide-reaching storm will bring intense winds across the
Great Lakes into the weekend. Storm force winds have finally
ended, but high end gales will last well into Sunday across Lake
Ontario. The strong winds and plunging temperatures which will
also pose a heavy freezing spray hazard through Sunday
afternoon. Thus, a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in
effect for Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.
Winds will continue to diminish Sunday night, but will likely be
strong enough to require small craft headlines for some of the
waters through Monday night.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Levels on Lake Erie have dropped below 8 feet, allowing the
Lakeshore Flood Warning to be dropped for the Lake Erie
shorelines. Very strong southwest gales to 40-45 knots will
also bring the potential for lakeshore flooding and shoreline
erosion to the eastern end of Lake Ontario through Sunday
morning. Lake levels are near normal, which will lower the
potential for lakeshore flooding compared to past years, but
with onshore winds this strong along with expected considerable
wave action the threat is a bit more elevated for this event.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001-002-010-011-
     085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ003.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ006-007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ006-008.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for NYZ013-021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for LOZ042>044.
         Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for LOZ045-062>065.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...Hitchcock
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hitchcock/TMA
FXUS61 KBUF 242011                                              2022358 2011
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
311 PM EST Sat Dec 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will continue to batter the region through
the Christmas weekend. Very strong winds will continue into this
evening with wind-driven heavy lake effect snows northeast of
the Lakes creating severe blizzard conditions. Heavy lake snows
will last through at least Christmas Day, possibly lingering
into the first part of next week. Following this storm, a
significant warming trend will develop later next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...LIFE THREATENING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY TODAY...
SEVERE BLIZZARD conditions will continue today across the Buffalo
Metro area and Niagara Frontier, and in Jefferson County with heavy
lake effect snow and near zero visibility as blowing snow is driven
by 50-55 mph wind gusts.
Very strong surface low pressure vertically stacked beneath a deep
mid level low will continue to spin near the southern end of James
Bay this evening, then move northeast across northern Quebec
Sunday and Sunday night, gradually weakening with time. This
will maintain a cyclonic flow of cold air and a favorable lake
effect snow setup through Sunday night.
Wind gusts will continue to run in the 50-55 mph range through
early evening, then gradually start to subside tonight and
Sunday. This will start to end the severe blizzard conditions by
Sunday, but winds will still be strong enough to produce
blowing and drifting snow through Sunday evening before
diminishing further.
Off Lake Erie...
The band of heavy lake effect snow is quite far north this
afternoon, centered from Grand Island to southern and central
Niagara County. This band of snow will drift south late this
afternoon back to a downtown Buffalo to Airport line later this
afternoon and evening, then move south of the Airport and
downtown Buffalo around midnight, crossing the Buffalo
Southtowns through the wee hours of the morning. Snowfall rates
of 2-3" per hour will continue through this time frame.
Sunday morning the lake effect snow will continue to drift south,
centering on southern Erie and Wyoming counties by mid to late
morning, and also the far northern and western portions of
Chautauqua County and northwest Cattaraugus county. The band will
weaken in intensity by Sunday afternoon as fetch shortens and
convergence weakens over the lake. The weakened band of snow will
move back north into Buffalo late Sunday night and Monday morning,
but it will be in a much weaker state by then.
Additional accumulations of 1-3 feet are likely in the most
persistent bands, bringing storm totals into the 4-5 foot range in
the hardest hit areas.
Off Lake Ontario...
Lake effect snow will remain disorganized through this evening,
but with severe blowing snow roads will still be nearly
impassable. Boundary layer flow will begin to veer to the WSW
late tonight and Sunday morning, increasing fetch across Lake
Ontario and allowing for the lake effect snow to intensify
across northern Jefferson County, then drift south across
Watertown to southern Jefferson and northern/western Lewis
counties by late afternoon or early evening. The band of snow
will continue to intensify through this time frame, with 3-4
inch per hour snowfall rates possible.
The lake effect snow will continue across southern Jefferson and
Lewis counties through late Sunday night or early Monday morning. On
Monday the lake effect snow will move quickly back north across
Jefferson County and weaken with time as boundary layer flow veers
to the SSW.

Additional accumulations of 2-4 feet are possible in the most
persistent bands across southern Jefferson and northern/western
Lewis counties, and 1-2 feet for northern Jefferson County with
around a foot across far northern Oswego County.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday lake snows will be in a weaker state with falling Lake
inversion heights. However a backing flow will bring the snow
back to the City of Buffalo with an inch of snow falling late
Sunday night and Monday morning. Later in the day the band of
snow will be weakening over the North Country as it will lose
its upstream connection to now Lake Erie as well as having the
band oriented over a much smaller fetch of lake.
A shortwave digging around the large upper level trough Monday
night will bring additional synoptic moisture back over the
Lakes. This trough will reinvigorate the lake snows on a SW to
SSW flow...highlighting Niagara County and the Saint Lawrence
Valley Monday night before the bands shift southward. Several
inches of snow is again likely off Lake Erie, with additional
half foot plus east of Lake Ontario. While the focus of snow
will be lake effect, the passing shortwave may also generate a
few light snow showers outside of these bands.
Temperatures will be well below normal this period, with highs
some 10 degrees or more below normal. Highs both Sunday and
Monday will be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Lows will be in
the teens to interior single digits. These temperatures and
still gusty winds will generate wind chill values in the single
digits through much of this time period.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Anomalous upper ridge builds overhead during the mid to late week
period. High confidence in a gradual and welcome warming trend
through this period, with the next chance for precipitation in the
form of rain showers coming late in the week as the next trough
approaches. A lot of the area will sees high temperatures in the 50s
both Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Blizzard conditions will persist in the already hard hit areas
northeast of both lakes today, expect significant blowing and
drifting snow at KBUF, KIAG, and KART. The lake bands will stay
nearly stationary or possibly oscillate a bit through at least 21z
today. After that...the band off Lake Erie will begin to ever so
slowly drift south by late this evening. That said...this will take
time to occur, so no changes expected with LIFR/LIFR at the above
mentioned terminals.
Elsewhere...all terminals not impacted by the lake snows will likely
see a mix of MVFR to VFR conditions but winds will gust up to 45 mph
at times.
Tonight...lake snows off Lake Erie will continue to slowly drift
south impacting terminals east and southeast of the lake. Expect
IFR/LIFR flight conditions to continue in the band of lake effect
snow with significant blowing and drifting. off Lake Ontario... the
southward drift of the lake band will likely not occur until early
Sunday. KART should expect to see a continuation of LIFR/IFR through
the day Sunday before the band settles south of the terminal.
Outlook...
Sunday...Localized IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow. Lake effect snows will be south of KBUF, and south of
KART by late Sunday afternoon.
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow lifting back
northward towards Buffalo and Watertown
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR early in lake snows. A return to VFR with lake
snows ending through the afternoon.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong and wide-reaching storm will bring intense winds across the
Great Lakes into the weekend. Storm force winds have finally
ended, but high end gales will last well into Sunday across Lake
Ontario. The strong winds and plunging temperatures which will
also pose a heavy freezing spray hazard through Sunday
afternoon. Thus, a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in
effect for Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.
Winds will continue to diminish Sunday night, but will likely be
strong enough to require small craft headlines for some of the
waters through Monday night.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Levels on Lake Erie have dropped below 8 feet, allowing the
Lakeshore Flood Warning to be dropped for the Lake Erie
shorelines. Very strong southwest gales to 40-45 knots will
also bring the potential for lakeshore flooding and shoreline
erosion to the eastern end of Lake Ontario through Sunday
morning. Lake levels are near normal, which will lower the
potential for lakeshore flooding compared to past years, but
with onshore winds this strong along with expected considerable
wave action the threat is a bit more elevated for this event.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001-002-010-011-
     085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ004-
     005-013-014.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ006-007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ006-008.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ021.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for LOZ042>044.
         Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for LOZ045-062>065.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for SLZ022-
         024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...Hitchcock
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hitchcock/TMA
FXUS61 KBUF 241925                                              2022358 1925
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
225 PM EST Sat Dec 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will continue to batter the region through
the Christmas weekend. Very strong winds will continue today with
wind-driven heavy lake effect snows northeast of the Lakes creating
severe blizzard conditions. Heavy lake snows will last through at
least Christmas Day, possibly lingering into the first part of next
week. Following this storm, a significant warming trend will develop
later next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
...LIFE THREATENING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY TODAY...
SEVERE BLIZZARD conditions will continue today across the Buffalo
Metro area and Niagara Frontier, and in Jefferson County with heavy
lake effect snow and near zero visibility as blowing snow is driven
by 50-55 mph wind gusts.
Very strong surface low pressure vertically stacked beneath a deep
mid level low will continue to spin near the southern end of James
Bay today, then move northeast across northern Quebec Sunday and
Sunday night, gradually weakening with time. This will maintain a
cyclonic flow of cold air and a favorable lake effect snow setup
through Sunday night.
Wind gusts will continue to run in the 50-55 mph range today, then
gradually start to subside tonight and Sunday. This will start to
end the severe blizzard conditions by Sunday, but winds will
still be strong enough to produce blowing and drifting snow through
Sunday evening before diminishing further.
Off Lake Erie...
The band of heavy lake effect snow is quite far north early this
afternoon, centered from Grand Island to southern and central
Niagara County. This band of snow will begin to drift south this
afternoon back to a downtown Buffalo to Airport line later this
afternoon and evening, then move south of the Airport and downtown
Buffalo around midnight, crossing the Buffalo Southtowns through the
wee hours of the morning. Snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour will
continue through this time frame.
Sunday morning the lake effect snow will continue to drift south,
centering on southern Erie and Wyoming counties by mid to late
morning, and also the far northern and western portions of
Chautauqua County and northwest Cattaraugus county. The band will
weaken in intensity by Sunday afternoon as fetch shortens and
convergence weakens over the lake. The weakened band of snow will
move back north into Buffalo late Sunday night and Monday morning,
but it will be in a much weaker state by then.
Additional accumulations of 1-3 feet are likely in the most
persistent bands, bringing storm totals into the 4-5 foot range in
the hardest hit areas.
Off Lake Ontario...
Lake effect snow will remain disorganized through the rest of today,
but with severe blowing snow conditions will still be nearly
impassable. Boundary layer flow will begin to veer to the WSW late
tonight and Sunday morning, increasing fetch across Lake Ontario and
allowing for the lake effect snow to intensify across northern
Jefferson County, then drift south across Watertown to southern
Jefferson and northern/western Lewis counties by late afternoon or
early evening. The band of snow will continue to intensify through
this time frame, with 3-4 inch per hour snowfall rates possible.
The lake effect snow will continue across southern Jefferson and
Lewis counties through late Sunday night or early Monday morning. On
Monday the lake effect snow will move quickly back north across
Jefferson County and weaken with time as boundary layer flow veers
to the SSW.

Additional accumulations of 2-4 feet are possible in the most
persistent bands across southern Jefferson and northern/western
Lewis counties, and 1-2 feet for northern Jefferson County.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave digging southeast through the broader upper level trough
Monday night will bring additional synoptic moisture back over the
Lakes. This trough will reinvigorate lake snows on a SW to SSW
flow...highlighting Niagara County and the Saint Lawrence Valley
Monday night before the bands shift southward. Several inches of
snow is again likely off Lake Erie, with an additional half foot
plus east of Lake Ontario. While the focus of snows will be lake
effect, the passing shortwave may also generate a few light snow
showers outside of these bands as we head into Tuesday.
Tuesday...lake effect snows will significantly weaken as synoptic
moisture depletes and equilibrium levels fall below 5K feet. This
will first occur off Lake Erie in the morning, then occur off Lake
Ontario by days end. This will effectively limit accumulations off
both lakes, with additional snowfall of 1 to 2 inches in the most
persistent snows.
Tuesday night...any remaining lake effect snows should all but wrap
in the evening, this as mid-levels warm with southerly flow picking
up across the region. High pressure then takes over for the second
half of the night across the region with quiet and dry weather.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Anomalous upper ridge builds overhead during the mid to late week
period. High confidence in a gradual and welcome warming trend
through this period, with the next chance for precipitation in the
form of rain showers coming late in the week as the next trough
approaches. A lot of the area will sees high temperatures in the 50s
both Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Blizzard conditions will persist in the already hard hit areas
northeast of both lakes today, expect significant blowing and
drifting snow at KBUF, KIAG, and KART. The lake bands will stay
nearly stationary or possibly oscillate a bit through at least 21z
today. After that...the band off Lake Erie will begin to ever so
slowly drift south by late this evening. That said...this will take
time to occur, so no changes expected with LIFR/LIFR at the above
mentioned terminals.
Elsewhere...all terminals not impacted by the lake snows will likely
see a mix of MVFR to VFR conditions but winds will gust up to 45 mph
at times.
Tonight...lake snows off Lake Erie will continue to slowly drift
south impacting terminals east and southeast of the lake. Expect
IFR/LIFR flight conditions to continue in the band of lake effect
snow with significant blowing and drifting. off Lake Ontario... the
southward drift of the lake band will likely not occur until early
Sunday. KART should expect to see a continuation of LIFR/IFR through
the day Sunday before the band settles south of the terminal.
Outlook...
Sunday...Localized IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow. Lake effect snows will be south of KBUF, and south of
KART by late Sunday afternoon.
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow lifting back
northward towards Buffalo and Watertown
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR early in lake snows. A return to VFR with lake
snows ending through the afternoon.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong and wide-reaching storm will bring intense winds across the
Great Lakes into the weekend. There will be high end gales with
frequent storm force gusts, or possibly even outright storm force
sustained winds, for which a Storm Warning for Lake Ontario remains
in effect as outlined below. A Gale Warning is in effect on Lake
Erie. Wave heights may exceed 25 to 30 feet on both Lakes during
this time. The strong winds and plunging temperatures which will
also pose a heavy freezing spray hazard through Sunday afternoon.
Thus, a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect for Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Levels on Lake Erie have dropped below 8 feet, allowing the
Lakeshore Flood Warning to be dropped for the Lake Erie
shorelines. Very strong southwest gales to 40-45 knots with
storm force gusts will also bring the potential for lakeshore
flooding and shoreline erosion to the eastern end of Lake
Ontario through Sunday morning. Lake levels are near normal,
which will lower the potential for lakeshore flooding compared
to past years, but with onshore winds this strong along with
expected considerable wave action the threat is a bit more
elevated for this event.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001-002-010-011-
     085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ004-
     005-013-014.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ006-007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ006-008.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ021.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for LOZ042>044.
         Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for LOZ045-062>065.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for SLZ022-
         024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...Hitchcock
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hitchcock/TMA
FXUS61 KBUF 241804                                              2022358 1804
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
104 PM EST Sat Dec 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will continue to batter the region through
the Christmas weekend. Very strong winds will continue today with
wind-driven heavy lake effect snows northeast of the Lakes creating
severe blizzard conditions. Heavy lake snows will last through at
least Christmas Day, possibly lingering into the first part of next
week. Following this storm, a significant warming trend will develop
later next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
...LIFE THREATENING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY TODAY...
SEVERE BLIZZARD conditions will continue today across the Buffalo
Metro area and Niagara Frontier, and in Jefferson County with heavy
lake effect snow and near zero visibility as blowing snow is driven
by 50-55 mph wind gusts.
Very strong surface low pressure vertically stacked beneath a deep
mid level low will continue to spin near the southern end of James
Bay today, then move northeast across northern Quebec Sunday and
Sunday night, gradually weakening with time. This will maintain a
cyclonic flow of cold air and a favorable lake effect snow setup
through Sunday night.
Wind gusts will continue to run in the 50-55 mph range today, then
gradually start to subside tonight and Sunday. This will start to
end the severe blizzard conditions by Sunday, but winds will
still be strong enough to produce blowing and drifting snow through
Sunday evening before diminishing further.
Off Lake Erie...
The band of heavy lake effect snow is quite far north early this
afternoon, centered from Grand Island to southern and central
Niagara County. This band of snow will begin to drift south this
afternoon back to a downtown Buffalo to Airport line later this
afternoon and evening, then move south of the Airport and downtown
Buffalo around midnight, crossing the Buffalo Southtowns through the
wee hours of the morning. Snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour will
continue through this time frame.
Sunday morning the lake effect snow will continue to drift south,
centering on southern Erie and Wyoming counties by mid to late
morning, and also the far northern and western portions of
Chautauqua County and northwest Cattaraugus county. The band will
weaken in intensity by Sunday afternoon as fetch shortens and
convergence weakens over the lake. The weakened band of snow will
move back north into Buffalo late Sunday night and Monday morning,
but it will be in a much weaker state by then.
Additional accumulations of 1-3 feet are likely in the most
persistent bands, bringing storm totals into the 4-5 foot range in
the hardest hit areas.
Off Lake Ontario...
Lake effect snow will remain disorganized through the rest of today,
but with severe blowing snow conditions will still be nearly
impassable. Boundary layer flow will begin to veer to the WSW late
tonight and Sunday morning, increasing fetch across Lake Ontario and
allowing for the lake effect snow to intensify across northern
Jefferson County, then drift south across Watertown to southern
Jefferson and northern/western Lewis counties by late afternoon or
early evening. The band of snow will continue to intensify through
this time frame, with 3-4 inch per hour snowfall rates possible.
The lake effect snow will continue across southern Jefferson and
Lewis counties through late Sunday night or early Monday morning. On
Monday the lake effect snow will move quickly back north across
Jefferson County and weaken with time as boundary layer flow veers
to the SSW.

Additional accumulations of 2-4 feet are possible in the most
persistent bands across southern Jefferson and northern/western
Lewis counties, and 1-2 feet for northern Jefferson County.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave digging southeast through the broader upper level trough
Monday night will bring additional synoptic moisture back over the
Lakes. This trough will reinvigorate lake snows on a SW to SSW
flow...highlighting Niagara County and the Saint Lawrence Valley
Monday night before the bands shift southward. Several inches of
snow is again likely off Lake Erie, with an additional half foot
plus east of Lake Ontario. While the focus of snows will be lake
effect, the passing shortwave may also generate a few light snow
showers outside of these bands as we head into Tuesday.
Tuesday...lake effect snows will significantly weaken as synoptic
moisture depletes and equilibrium levels fall below 5K feet. This
will first occur off Lake Erie in the morning, then occur off Lake
Ontario by days end. This will effectively limit accumulations off
both lakes, with additional snowfall of 1 to 2 inches in the most
persistent snows.
Tuesday night...any remaining lake effect snows should all but wrap
in the evening, this as mid-levels warm with southerly flow picking
up across the region. High pressure then takes over for the second
half of the night across the region with quiet and dry weather.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ridge of high pressure will move across the area Wednesday with fair
weather lasting probably through Thursday, followed by a MUCH
WELCOMED warming trend for the end of the week. Highs on Friday will
be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.  There may be some showers leading
into the weekend with the continued warm air advection.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Blizzard conditions will persist in the already hard hit areas
northeast of both lakes today, expect significant blowing and
drifting snow at KBUF, KIAG, and KART. The lake bands will stay
nearly stationary or possibly oscillate a bit through at least 21z
today. After that...the band off Lake Erie will begin to ever so
slowly drift south by late this evening. That said...this will take
time to occur, so no changes expected with LIFR/LIFR at the above
mentioned terminals.
Elsewhere...all terminals not impacted by the lake snows will likely
see a mix of MVFR to VFR conditions but winds will gust up to 45 mph
at times.
Tonight...lake snows off Lake Erie will continue to slowly drift
south impacting terminals east and southeast of the lake. Expect
IFR/LIFR flight conditions to continue in the band of lake effect
snow with significant blowing and drifting. off Lake Ontario... the
southward drift of the lake band will likely not occur until early
Sunday. KART should expect to see a continuation of LIFR/IFR through
the day Sunday before the band settles south of the terminal.
Outlook...
Sunday...Localized IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow. Lake effect snows will be south of KBUF, and south of
KART by late Sunday afternoon.
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow lifting back
northward towards Buffalo and Watertown
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR early in lake snows. A return to VFR with lake
snows ending through the afternoon.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong and wide-reaching storm will bring intense winds across the
Great Lakes into the weekend. There will be high end gales with
frequent storm force gusts, or possibly even outright storm force
sustained winds, for which a Storm Warning for Lake Ontario remains
in effect as outlined below. A Gale Warning is in effect on Lake
Erie. Wave heights may exceed 25 to 30 feet on both Lakes during
this time. The strong winds and plunging temperatures which will
also pose a heavy freezing spray hazard through Sunday afternoon.
Thus, a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect for Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Levels on Lake Erie have dropped below 8 feet, allowing the
Lakeshore Flood Warning to be dropped for the Lake Erie
shorelines. Very strong southwest gales to 40-45 knots with
storm force gusts will also bring the potential for lakeshore
flooding and shoreline erosion to the eastern end of Lake
Ontario through Sunday morning. Lake levels are near normal,
which will lower the potential for lakeshore flooding compared
to past years, but with onshore winds this strong along with
expected considerable wave action the threat is a bit more
elevated for this event.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001-002-010-011-
     085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ004-
     005-013-014.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ006-007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ006-008.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ021.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for SLZ022-
         024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...Hitchcock
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hitchcock/TMA
FXUS61 KBUF 241537                                              2022358 1537
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1037 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will continue to batter the region through
the Christmas weekend. Very strong winds will continue today with
wind-driven heavy lake effect snows northeast of the Lakes creating
severe blizzard conditions. Heavy lake snows will last through at
least Christmas Day, possibly lingering into the first part of next
week. Following this storm, a significant warming trend will develop
later next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...LIFE THREATENING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY TODAY...
SEVERE BLIZZARD conditions will continue today across the Buffalo
Metro area and Niagara Frontier, and in Jefferson County with heavy
lake effect snow and near zero visibility as blowing snow is driven
by 50-55 mph wind gusts.
Very strong surface low pressure vertically stacked beneath a deep
mid level low will continue to spin near the southern end of James
Bay today, then move northeast across northern Quebec Sunday and
Sunday night, gradually weakening with time. This will maintain a
cyclonic flow of cold air and a favorable lake effect snow setup
through Sunday night.
Wind gusts will continue to run in the 50-55 mph range today, then
gradually start to subside tonight and Sunday. This will start to
end the severe blizzard conditions by Sunday, but winds will
still be strong enough to produce blowing and drifting snow through
Sunday evening before diminishing further.
Off Lake Erie...
The band of heavy lake effect snow is quite far north early this
afternoon, centered from Grand Island to southern and central
Niagara County. This band of snow will begin to drift south this
afternoon back to a downtown Buffalo to Airport line later this
afternoon and evening, then move south of the Airport and downtown
Buffalo around midnight, crossing the Buffalo Southtowns through the
wee hours of the morning. Snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour will
continue through this time frame.
Sunday morning the lake effect snow will continue to drift south,
centering on southern Erie and Wyoming counties by mid to late
morning, and also the far northern and western portions of
Chautauqua County and northwest Cattaraugus county. The band will
weaken in intensity by Sunday afternoon as fetch shortens and
convergence weakens over the lake. The weakened band of snow will
move back north into Buffalo late Sunday night and Monday morning,
but it will be in a much weaker state by then.
Additional accumulations of 1-3 feet are likely in the most
persistent bands, bringing storm totals into the 4-5 foot range in
the hardest hit areas.
Off Lake Ontario...
Lake effect snow will remain disorganized through the rest of today,
but with severe blowing snow conditions will still be nearly
impassable. Boundary layer flow will begin to veer to the WSW late
tonight and Sunday morning, increasing fetch across Lake Ontario and
allowing for the lake effect snow to intensify across northern
Jefferson County, then drift south across Watertown to southern
Jefferson and northern/western Lewis counties by late afternoon or
early evening. The band of snow will continue to intensify through
this time frame, with 3-4 inch per hour snowfall rates possible.
The lake effect snow will continue across southern Jefferson and
Lewis counties through late Sunday night or early Monday morning. On
Monday the lake effect snow will move quickly back north across
Jefferson County and weaken with time as boundary layer flow veers
to the SSW.

Additional accumulations of 2-4 feet are possible in the most
persistent bands across southern Jefferson and northern/western
Lewis counties, and 1-2 feet for northern Jefferson County.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Monday lake snows will be in a weaker state with falling Lake
inversion heights. However a backing flow will bring the snow
back to the City of Buffalo with an inch of snow falling late
Sunday night and Monday morning. Later in the day the band of
snow will be weakening over the North Country as it will lose
its upstream connection to now Lake Erie as well as having the
band oriented over a much smaller fetch of lake.
A shortwave digging around the large upper level trough Monday
night will bring additional synoptic moisture back over the
Lakes. This trough will reinvigorate the lake snows on a SW to
SSW flow...highlighting Niagara County and the Saint Lawrence
Valley Monday night before the bands shift southward. Several
inches of snow is again likely off Lake Erie, with additional
half foot plus east of Lake Ontario. While the focus of snow
will be lake effect, the passing shortwave may also generate a
few light snow showers outside of these bands.
Temperatures will be well below normal this period, with highs
some 10 degrees or more below normal. Highs both Sunday and
Monday will be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Lows will be in
the teens to interior single digits. These temperatures and
still gusty winds will generate wind chill values in the single
digits through much of this time period.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Another shortwave trough moving across the region Tuesday will
provide some moisture, allowing lake effect snows to continue
east/northeast of the lakes. Relative to the weekend however,
this should have minor impacts overall. Lake snows will taper
off Tuesday night with its departure and corresponding lowering
inversion heights.
After this, a ridge of high pressure will move across the area
Wednesday with fair weather lasting probably through Thursday,
followed by a MUCH WELCOMED warming trend for the end of the week.
Highs on Friday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.  There may be
some showers leading into the weekend with the continued warm air
advection.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Blizzard conditions will persist in the already hard hit areas
northeast of both lakes today, expect significant blowing and
drifting snow at KBUF, KIAG, and KART. The lake bands will stay
nearly stationary or possibly oscillate a bit through at least 21z
today. After that...the band off Lake Erie will begin to ever so
slowly drift south by late this evening. That said...this will take
time to occur, so no changes expected with LIFR/LIFR at the above
mentioned terminals.
Elsewhere...all terminals not impacted by the lake snows will likely
see a mix of MVFR to VFR conditions but winds will gust up to 45 mph
at times.
Tonight...lake snows off Lake Erie will continue to slowly drift
south impacting terminals east and southeast of the lake. Expect
IFR/LIFR flight conditions to continue in bands of lake effect snow
with significant blowing and drifting. At KBUF, the band should move
south of the airfield by around 06Z Sunday. Off Lake Ontario...
the southward drift of the lake band will likely not occur until
early Sunday. KART should expect to see a continuation of LIFR/IFR
through at least Sunday morning before the band settles south of
the terminal.
Outlook...
Sunday...Localized IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow. Lake effect snows will be south of KBUF and KIAG, but
still significantly impact KART.
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow lifting back
northward towards Buffalo and Watertown, but much weaker than over
the weekend.
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR early in lake snows. A return to VFR with lake
snows ending through the afternoon.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong and wide-reaching storm will bring intense winds across the
Great Lakes into the weekend. There will be high end gales with
frequent storm force gusts, or possibly even outright storm force
sustained winds, for which a Storm Warning for Lake Ontario remains
in effect as outlined below. A Gale Warning is in effect on Lake
Erie. Wave heights may exceed 25 to 30 feet on both Lakes during
this time. The strong winds and plunging temperatures which will
also pose a heavy freezing spray hazard through Sunday afternoon.
Thus, a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect for Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Levels on Lake Erie have dropped below 8 feet, allowing the
Lakeshore Flood Warning to be dropped for the Lake Erie
shorelines. Very strong southwest gales to 40-45 knots with
storm force gusts will also bring the potential for lakeshore
flooding and shoreline erosion to the eastern end of Lake
Ontario through Sunday morning. Lake levels are near normal,
which will lower the potential for lakeshore flooding compared
to past years, but with onshore winds this strong along with
expected considerable wave action the threat is a bit more
elevated for this event.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001-002-010-011-
     085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ004-
     005-013-014.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ006-007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ006-008.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ021.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for SLZ022-
         024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...Hitchcock
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hitchcock/TMA
FXUS61 KBUF 241138                                              2022358 1138
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
638 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will impact the region through the Christmas
weekend. Very strong winds will continue today with wind-driven
heavy lake effect snows northeast of the lakes creating
blizzard conditions. Heavy lake snows will last through at least
Christmas Day, possibly lingering into the first part of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...LIFE THREATENING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY TODAY...
BLIZZARD conditions continue across the Niagara Frontier and
Jefferson County with a prolonged period of zero visibility in
lake effect bands. Travel is impossible in these areas.
At 6 a.m. an intense lake effect band extends from Grand Island
across Lockport to Medina. This band should remain nearly
stationary near the Niagara/Erie county line into early
afternoon before moving slowly southward across downtown Buffalo
and the Buffalo Airport late this afternoon and early evening.
The band will continue to move southward tonight, moving across
the Buffalo southtowns and across the Boston Hills and
northwestern Chautauqua county late tonight. Snow will be
difficult to measure due to extensive drifting, but expect an
additional 1 to 2 feet from this band through tonight, with
snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour. Visibility will still be
extremely poor in the hardest hit areas due to blowing snow.
At 6 a.m. bands off Lake Ontario are weaker and not as
organized, but still are producing blizzard conditions. These
bands will continue to lift northward focusing more on the
northern half of the county today. The lake effect snow will
remain across northern Jefferson County for the first half of
tonight, and then will begin to sag southward late tonight. The
band will intensify and/or consolidate tonight, with snowfall
rates increasing to 2 inches/hour. This will also produce
widespread blizzard conditions with an additional 10 to 20
inches through tonight.
As for the winds, a 964 mb surface low across Quebec will
maintain a tight pressure gradient across the area. Peak wind
gusts have already exceeded 70 mph across parts of western New
York last night. Winds will gradually diminish today, but gusts
over 60 mph will still be possible across the lake plains.
Winds will diminish further tonight, with peak gusts around 50
mph across the lake plains, with gusts to 30 mph inland.
Elsewhere, there's still drifting snow and bitterly cold wind
chills. Wind chills early this morning will be 15 and 30 below.
Highs today will only be in the single digits to the teens.
Travel will continue to be impossible where the heaviest snow
and strongest winds are occurring concurrently. Power outages
will become increasingly widespread which continues to be a big
concern, especially with the cold temperature expected for the
holiday weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect snow will continue Sunday...though reducing wind speeds
will end blizzard conditions...with lake effect snow warnings
likely.
Sunday a deep upper level closed low will be just east of James Bay,
with a filling, but still very deep surface low to the east of James
Bay as well. This filling low with a relaxing pressure gradient will
allow for wind speeds to fall back towards sustained 20 to 30 mph
...and gusts to 45 mph Sunday morning which will then further weaken
slowly through the day. Blowing snow will still occur, with heavy
bands of lake effect snow pushing southward towards the Buffalo
Southtowns and Tug Hill creating still difficult driving conditions
and very poor visibilities. Towards Buffalo and the Northtowns there
will likely be some improvement with the band of snow pushing
southward. A foot of fresh snow is likely Christmas day east of Lake
Erie, with a foot or two east of Lake Ontario where a favorable
fetch/lift over the Lake Ontario waters could focus upwards to 2
feet on the Northern Tug Hill, with a foot of snow near Watertown.
Lowering inversion heights and a drier air mass will cause lake
snows to diminish in intensity off Lake Erie Sunday night.
Meanwhile, a weakening band will move back northward as winds
shift back to the southwest. Fairly intense lake snows will
continue east of Lake Ontario. A winter storm warning will be
issued, running through Sunday night for Oswego County where the far
northern portion of the county will be impacted by the lake effect
snowband, especially the upslope Tug Hill area.
Also, any power outages that last for a longer period will have a
bigger impact since very cold weather will last late into the
weekend and beginning of next week.
Monday lake snows will be in a weaker state with falling Lake
inversion heights. However a backing flow will bring the snow back
to the City of Buffalo with an inch of snow falling late Sunday night
and Monday morning. Later in the day the band of snow will be weakening
over the North Country as it will lose its upstream connection to now
Lake Erie as well as having the band oriented over a much smaller
fetch of lake.
A shortwave digging around the large upper level trough Monday
night will bring additional synoptic moisture back over the Lakes. This
trough will reinvigorate the lake snows on a SW to SSW
flow...highlighting Niagara County and the Saint Lawrence Valley
Monday night before the bands shift southward. Several inches of
snow is again likely off Lake Erie, with additional half foot plus
east of Lake Ontario. While the focus of snow will be lake effect,
the passing shortwave may also generate a few light snow showers
outside of these bands.
Temperatures will be well below normal this period, with highs some
10 degrees or more below normal. Highs both Sunday and Monday will
be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Lows will be in the teens to
interior single digits. These temperatures and still gusty winds
will generate wind chill values in the single digits through much of
this time period.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Another shortwave trough moving across the region Tuesday will
provide some moisture, allowing lake effect snows to continue
east/northeast of the lakes. Relative to the weekend however, this
should have minor impacts overall. Lake snows will taper off Tuesday
night with its departure and corresponding lowering inversion
heights.
After this, a ridge of high pressure will move across the area
Wednesday with fair weather lasting probably through Thursday,
followed by a MUCH WELCOMED warming trend for the end of the week.
Highs on Friday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.  There may be
some showers leading into the weekend with the continued warm air
advection.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cyclonic flow will continue to filter an Arctic air mass across the
Lower Lakes today. Crippling lake snows and blowing snow will
continue to produce VLIFR/LIFR at KBUF, KIAG and KART terminals.
These bands will stay nearly stationary, with only subtle
oscillations through the TAF cycle. Outside of the crippling
lake snows, all other terminals will only see some minor
improvements or adjustments in CIGS/VSBYS.
Continued windy tonight with snow and severe blowing and
drifting snow. IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow to the northeast and east of the lakes.
Outlook...
Sunday...Localized IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow. Lake effect snow settles south of Buffalo early Sunday,
and south of Watertown early Sunday evening.
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow lifting back
northward towards Buffalo and Watertown
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR early in lake snows. A return to VFR with lake
snows ending through the afternoon.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong and wide-reaching storm will bring intense winds across the
Great Lakes into the weekend. Winds have diminished some early
this morning, allowing the storms to be lowered to gales on Lake
Erie. There will continue to be storm force gusts on Lake
Ontario today. The strong winds and plunging temperatures which
will also pose a heavy freezing spray hazard for this afternoon
through Sunday afternoon. Thus, a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning
remains in effect for Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Levels on Lake Erie have dropped below 8 feet, allowing the
Lakeshore Flood Warning to be dropped for the Lake Erie
shorelines. Very strong southwest gales to 40-45 knots with
storm force gusts will also bring the potential for lakeshore
flooding and shoreline erosion to the eastern end of Lake
Ontario through Sunday morning. Lake levels are below normal,
which will lower the potential for lakeshore flooding, but with
onshore winds this strong along with expected considerable wave
action the threat is a bit more elevated for this event.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001-002-010-011-
     085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ004-
     005-013-014.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ006-007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ006-008.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ021.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for SLZ022-
         024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock/JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...AR/Thomas
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock/TMA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TMA
FXUS61 KBUF 241131                                              2022358 1131
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
631 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will impact the region through the Christmas
weekend. Very strong winds will continue today with wind-driven
heavy lake effect snows northeast of the Lakes creating
blizzard conditions. Heavy lake snows will last through at least
Christmas Day, possibly lingering into the first part of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...LIFE THREATENING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY TODAY...
BLIZZARD conditions continue across the Niagara Frontier and
Jefferson County with a prolonged period of zero visibility in
lake effect bands. Travel is impossible in these areas. The
lake effect band has exited Chautauqua county, so the Blizzard
Warning has been replaced by a Winter Storm Warning. Also,
upgraded Oswego County to a Winter Storm Warning, mainly for
when lake effect snow moves in on Sunday but also for strong
winds and blowing snow through tonight.
At 3 a.m. an intense lake effect band extends from Tonawanda to
Rapids to Medina. This band should remain nearly stationary near
the Niagara/Erie county line this morning before moving slowly
southward across downtown Buffalo and the Buffalo Airport this
afternoon. The band will continue to move southward tonight,
moving across the Buffalo southtowns and across the Boston Hills
and northwestern Chautauqua county late tonight. Snow will be
difficult to measure due to extensive drifting, but expect an
additional 1 to 2 feet from this band through tonight, with
snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour.
Early this morning there are multiple bands off Lake Ontario,
but these still are producing snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches
per hour. These will impact most of Jefferson County through
daybreak, then the snow bands will lift slightly north during
the day, focusing more on the northern half of the county. The
lake effect snow will remain across northern Jefferson County
for the first half of tonight, and then will begin to sag
southward late tonight. The band will intensify and/or
consolidate tonight, with snowfall rates increasing to 2
inches/hour.This will also produce widespread blizzard
conditions with an additional 1 to 2 feet through tonight.
As for the winds, a 964 mb surface low across Quebec will
maintain a tight pressure gradient across the area. Peak wind
gusts have already exceeded 70 mph across parts of western New
York. Winds will gradually diminish today, but gusts over 60
mph will still be possible across the lake plains. Winds will
diminish further tonight, with peak gusts around 50 mph across
the lake plains, with gusts to 30 mph inland.
Elsewhere, there's still drifting snow and bitterly cold wind
chills. Wind chills early this morning will be 15 and 30 below.
Highs today will only be in the single digits to the teens.
Travel will continue to be impossible where the heaviest snow
and strongest winds are occurring concurrently. Power outages
will become increasingly widespread which continues to be a big
concern, especially with the cold temperature expected for the
holiday weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect snow will continue Sunday...though reducing wind speeds
will end blizzard conditions...with lake effect snow warnings
likely.
Sunday a deep upper level closed low will be just east of James Bay,
with a filling, but still very deep surface low to the east of James
Bay as well. This filling low with a relaxing pressure gradient will
allow for wind speeds to fall back towards sustained 20 to 30 mph
...and gusts to 45 mph Sunday morning which will then further weaken
slowly through the day. Blowing snow will still occur, with heavy
bands of lake effect snow pushing southward towards the Buffalo
Southtowns and Tug Hill creating still difficult driving conditions
and very poor visibilities. Towards Buffalo and the Northtowns there
will likely be some improvement with the band of snow pushing
southward. A foot of fresh snow is likely Christmas day east of Lake
Erie, with a foot or two east of Lake Ontario where a favorable
fetch/lift over the Lake Ontario waters could focus upwards to 2
feet on the Northern Tug Hill, with a foot of snow near Watertown.
Lowering inversion heights and a drier air mass will cause lake
snows to diminish in intensity off Lake Erie Sunday night.
Meanwhile, a weakening band will move back northward as winds
shift back to the southwest. Fairly intense lake snows will
continue east of Lake Ontario. A winter storm warning will be
issued, running through Sunday night for Oswego County where the far
northern portion of the county will be impacted by the lake effect
snowband, especially the upslope Tug Hill area.
Also, any power outages that last for a longer period will have a
bigger impact since very cold weather will last late into the
weekend and beginning of next week.
Monday lake snows will be in a weaker state with falling Lake
inversion heights. However a backing flow will bring the snow back
to the City of Buffalo with an inch of snow falling late Sunday night
and Monday morning. Later in the day the band of snow will be weakening
over the North Country as it will lose its upstream connection to now
Lake Erie as well as having the band oriented over a much smaller
fetch of lake.
A shortwave digging around the large upper level trough Monday
night will bring additional synoptic moisture back over the Lakes. This
trough will reinvigorate the lake snows on a SW to SSW
flow...highlighting Niagara County and the Saint Lawrence Valley
Monday night before the bands shift southward. Several inches of
snow is again likely off Lake Erie, with additional half foot plus
east of Lake Ontario. While the focus of snow will be lake effect,
the passing shortwave may also generate a few light snow showers
outside of these bands.
Temperatures will be well below normal this period, with highs some
10 degrees or more below normal. Highs both Sunday and Monday will
be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Lows will be in the teens to
interior single digits. These temperatures and still gusty winds
will generate wind chill values in the single digits through much of
this time period.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Another shortwave trough moving across the region Tuesday will
provide some moisture, allowing lake effect snows to continue
east/northeast of the lakes. Relative to the weekend however, this
should have minor impacts overall. Lake snows will taper off Tuesday
night with its departure and corresponding lowering inversion
heights.
After this, a ridge of high pressure will move across the area
Wednesday with fair weather lasting probably through Thursday,
followed by a MUCH WELCOMED warming trend for the end of the week.
Highs on Friday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.  There may be
some showers leading into the weekend with the continued warm air
advection.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cyclonic flow will continue to filter an Arctic air mass across the
Lower Lakes today. Crippling lake snows and blowing snow will
continue to produce VLIFR/LIFR at KBUF, KIAG and KART terminals.
These bands will stay nearly stationary, with only subtle
oscillations through the TAF cycle. Outside of the crippling lake
snows, all other terminals will only see some improvements or
adjustments in CIGS/VSBYS which may allow at times for MVFR-VFR
conditions.
Tonight...lake snows continue with severe blowing and drifting of
snow. IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake effect snow to the
northeast and east of the lakes.
Outlook...
Sunday...Localized IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow. Lake effect snow settles south of Buffalo early Sunday,
and south of Watertown early Sunday evening.
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow lifting back
northward towards Buffalo and Watertown
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR early in lake snows. A return to VFR with lake
snows ending through the afternoon.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong and wide-reaching storm will bring intense winds across the
Great Lakes into the weekend. There will be high end gales with
frequent storm force gusts, or possibly even outright storm force
sustained winds, for which a Storm Warning for Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario remain in effect as outlined below. Wave heights may exceed
25 to 30 feet on both Lakes during this time. The strong winds and
plunging temperatures which will also pose a heavy freezing spray
hazard for this afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Thus, a Heavy
Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect for Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Intense southwest wind gusts to over 60 knots produced a seiche
event on Lake Erie, with a peak of 10.7 feet. This is close to
3 feet above the 8 foot flood stage. Winds will gradually
diminish today. However levels will remain near flood stage for
much of the day today, with continued lakeshore flooding.
Very strong southwest gales to 40-45 knots with storm force
gusts will also bring the potential for lakeshore flooding and
shoreline erosion to the eastern end of Lake Ontario through
Sunday morning. Lake levels are below normal, which will lower
the potential for lakeshore flooding, but with onshore winds
this strong along with expected considerable wave action the
threat is a bit more elevated for this event.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001-002-010-011-
     085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ004-
     005-013-014.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ006-007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ006-008.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ021.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for SLZ022-
         024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock/JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock/TMA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TMA
FXUS61 KBUF 240834                                              2022358 0834
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
334 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will impact the region through the Christmas
weekend. Very strong winds will continue today with wind-driven
heavy lake effect snows northeast of the Lakes creating
blizzard conditions. Heavy lake snows will last through at least
Christmas Day, possibly lingering into the first part of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...LIFE THREATENING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY TODAY...
BLIZZARD conditions continue across the Niagara Frontier and
Jefferson County with a prolonged period of zero visibility in
lake effect bands. Travel is impossible in these areas. The
lake effect band has exited Chautauqua county, so the Blizzard
Warning has been replaced by a Winter Storm Warning. Also,
upgraded Oswego County to a Winter Storm Warning, mainly for
when lake effect snow moves in on Sunday but also for strong
winds and blowing snow through tonight.
At 3 a.m. an intense lake effect band extends from Tonawanda to
Rapids to Medina. This band should remain nearly stationary near
the Niagara/Erie county line this morning before moving slowly
southward across downtown Buffalo and the Buffalo Airport this
afternoon. The band will continue to move southward tonight,
moving across the Buffalo southtowns and across the Boston Hills
and northwestern Chautauqua county late tonight. Snow will be
difficult to measure due to extensive drifting, but expect an
additional 1 to 2 feet from this band through tonight, with
snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour.
Early this morning there are multiple bands off Lake Ontario,
but these still are producing snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches
per hour. These will impact most of Jefferson County through
daybreak, then the snow bands will lift slightly north during
the day, focusing more on the northern half of the county. The
lake effect snow will remain across northern Jefferson County
for the first half of tonight, and then will begin to sag
southward late tonight. The band will intensify and/or
consolidate tonight, with snowfall rates increasing to 2
inches/hour.This will also produce widespread blizzard
conditions with an additional 1 to 2 feet through tonight.
As for the winds, a 964 mb surface low across Quebec will
maintain a tight pressure gradient across the area. Peak wind
gusts have already exceeded 70 mph across parts of western New
York. Winds will gradually diminish today, but gusts over 60
mph will still be possible across the lake plains. Winds will
diminish further tonight, with peak gusts around 50 mph across
the lake plains, with gusts to 30 mph inland.
Elsewhere, there's still drifting snow and bitterly cold wind
chills. Wind chills early this morning will be 15 and 30 below.
Highs today will only be in the single digits to the teens.
Travel will continue to be impossible where the heaviest snow
and strongest winds are occurring concurrently. Power outages
will become increasingly widespread which continues to be a big
concern, especially with the cold temperature expected for the
holiday weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect snow will continue Sunday...though reducing wind speeds
will end blizzard conditions...with lake effect snow warnings
likely.
Sunday a deep upper level closed low will be just east of James Bay,
with a filling, but still very deep surface low to the east of James
Bay as well. This filling low with a relaxing pressure gradient will
allow for wind speeds to fall back towards sustained 20 to 30 mph
...and gusts to 45 mph Sunday morning which will then further weaken
slowly through the day. Blowing snow will still occur, with heavy
bands of lake effect snow pushing southward towards the Buffalo
Southtowns and Tug Hill creating still difficult driving conditions
and very poor visibilities. Towards Buffalo and the Northtowns there
will likely be some improvement with the band of snow pushing
southward. A foot of fresh snow is likely Christmas day east of Lake
Erie, with a foot or two east of Lake Ontario where a favorable
fetch/lift over the Lake Ontario waters could focus upwards to 2
feet on the Northern Tug Hill, with a foot of snow near Watertown.
Lowering inversion heights and a drier air mass will cause lake
snows to diminish in intensity off Lake Erie Sunday night.
Meanwhile, a weakening band will move back northward as winds
shift back to the southwest. Fairly intense lake snows will
continue east of Lake Ontario. A winter storm warning will be
issued, running through Sunday night for Oswego County where the far
northern portion of the county will be impacted by the lake effect
snowband, especially the upslope Tug Hill area.
Also, any power outages that last for a longer period will have a
bigger impact since very cold weather will last late into the
weekend and beginning of next week.
Monday lake snows will be in a weaker state with falling Lake
inversion heights. However a backing flow will bring the snow back
to the City of Buffalo with an inch of snow falling late Sunday night
and Monday morning. Later in the day the band of snow will be weakening
over the North Country as it will lose its upstream connection to now
Lake Erie as well as having the band oriented over a much smaller
fetch of lake.
A shortwave digging around the large upper level trough Monday
night will bring additional synoptic moisture back over the Lakes. This
trough will reinvigorate the lake snows on a SW to SSW
flow...highlighting Niagara County and the Saint Lawrence Valley
Monday night before the bands shift southward. Several inches of
snow is again likely off Lake Erie, with additional half foot plus
east of Lake Ontario. While the focus of snow will be lake effect,
the passing shortwave may also generate a few light snow showers
outside of these bands.
Temperatures will be well below normal this period, with highs some
10 degrees or more below normal. Highs both Sunday and Monday will
be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Lows will be in the teens to
interior single digits. These temperatures and still gusty winds
will generate wind chill values in the single digits through much of
this time period.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Another shortwave trough moving across the region Tuesday will
provide some moisture, allowing lake effect snows to continue
east/northeast of the lakes. Relative to the weekend however, this
should have minor impacts overall. Lake snows will taper off Tuesday
night with its departure and corresponding lowering inversion
heights.
After this, a ridge of high pressure will move across the area
Wednesday with fair weather lasting probably through Thursday,
followed by a MUCH WELCOMED warming trend for the end of the week.
Highs on Friday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.  There may be
some showers leading into the weekend with the continued warm air
advection.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cyclonic flow will continue to filter an Arctic air mass across the
Lower Lakes today. Crippling lake snows and blowing snow will
continue to produce VLIFR/LIFR at KBUF, KIAG and KART terminals.
These bands will stay nearly stationary, with only subtle
oscillations through the TAF cycle. Outside of the crippling
lake snows, all other terminals will only see some minor
improvements or adjustments in CIGS/VSBYS.
Continued windy tonight with snow and severe blowing and
drifting snow. IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow to the northeast and east of the lakes.
Outlook...
Sunday...Localized IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow. Lake effect snow settles south of Buffalo early Sunday,
and south of Watertown early Sunday evening.
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow lifting back
northward towards Buffalo and Watertown
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR early in lake snows. A return to VFR with lake
snows ending through the afternoon.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong and wide-reaching storm will bring intense winds across the
Great Lakes into the weekend. There will be high end gales with
frequent storm force gusts, or possibly even outright storm force
sustained winds, for which a Storm Warning for Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario remain in effect as outlined below. Wave heights may exceed
25 to 30 feet on both Lakes during this time. The strong winds and
plunging temperatures which will also pose a heavy freezing spray
hazard for this afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Thus, a Heavy
Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect for Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Intense southwest wind gusts to over 60 knots produced a seiche
event on Lake Erie, with a peak of 10.7 feet. This is close to
3 feet above the 8 foot flood stage. Winds will gradually
diminish today. However levels will remain near flood stage for
much of the day today, with continued lakeshore flooding.
Very strong southwest gales to 40-45 knots with storm force
gusts will also bring the potential for lakeshore flooding and
shoreline erosion to the eastern end of Lake Ontario through
Sunday morning. Lake levels are below normal, which will lower
the potential for lakeshore flooding, but with onshore winds
this strong along with expected considerable wave action the
threat is a bit more elevated for this event.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001-002-010-011-
     085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ001-
     010-019-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ004-
     005-013-014.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ006-007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ006-008.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ021.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for SLZ022-
         024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Apffel/Zaff
AVIATION...AR/Thomas
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TMA
FXUS61 KBUF 240535                                              2022358 0535
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1235 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will impact the region through the Christmas
weekend. Very strong winds will continue through Saturday with
wind-driven heavy lake effect snows northeast of the Lakes
creating blizzard conditions. Heavy lake snows will last through
at least Christmas Day, possibly lingering into the first part
of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
...LIFE THREATENING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY...
BLIZZARD conditions continue across the Niagara Frontier and
Jefferson County with a prolonged period of zero visibility in
lake effect bands. Travel is literally impossible in these
areas. No change to headlines on this update.
At midnight, the band extends from the city of Buffalo to the
Airport to Akron. The band is expected to meander slightly
north through daybreak, spreading across more of the Buffalo
northtowns. The band should remain nearly stationary Saturday
morning before moving slowly southward back to its current
location during the afternoon. Snow will be difficult to measure
due to extensive drifting, but expect an additional 1 to 2 feet
from this band through sunset Saturday, with snowfall rates of
2 inches per hour.
There are multiple bands off Lake Ontario, but these still are
producing snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. These will
impact most of Jefferson County through daybreak, then the band
will lift slightly north during Saturday focusing more on the
northern half of the county. This will also produce widespread
blizzard conditions with an additional foot of snow through
sunset Saturday.
As for the winds, surface pressure over southern Ontario will
continue to intensify to around 961mb tonight as it wobbles into
Quebec. Peak wind gusts have already exceeded 70 mph across parts of
western New York. Winds will gradually diminish some late
tonight and Saturday, but gusts over 60 mph will still be
possible during this time across the lake plains.
Elsewhere, there's still drifting snow and bitterly cold wind
chills. Lows will range from around 5 below to the single digits
tonight, with wind chills dropping to 15 to 30 below. Highs
Saturday will only be in the single digits to the teens.
Travel will continue to be impossible where the heaviest snow
and strongest winds are occurring concurrently. Power outages
will become increasingly widespread which continues to be a big
concern, especially with the cold temperature expected for the
holiday weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect snow will continue Sunday...though reducing wind speeds
will end blizzard conditions...with lake effect snow warnings
likely.
Sunday a deep upper level closed low will be just east of James Bay,
with a filling, but still very deep surface low to the east of James
Bay as well. This filling low with a relaxing pressure gradient will
allow for wind speeds to fall back towards sustained 20 to 30 mph
...and gusts to 45 mph Sunday morning which will then further weaken
slowly through the day. Blowing snow will still occur, with heavy
bands of lake effect snow pushing southward towards the Buffalo
Southtowns and Tug Hill creating still difficult driving conditions
and very poor visibilities. Towards Buffalo and the Northtowns there
will likely be some improvement with the band of snow pushing
southward. A foot of fresh snow is likely Christmas day east of Lake
Erie, with a foot or two east of Lake Ontario where a favorable
fetch/lift over the Lake Ontario waters could focus upwards to 2
feet on the Northern Tug Hill, with a foot of snow near Watertown.
Lowering inversion heights and a drier air mass will cause lake
snows to diminish in intensity off Lake Erie Sunday night.
Meanwhile, a weakening band will move back northward as winds
shift back to the southwest. Fairly intense lake snows will
continue east of Lake Ontario. It's possible that winter
headlines may need to be extended into Oswego County with around
a foot of snow possible across far northern portions of the
county with upslope snow in this corner of the county.
Also, any power outages that last for a longer period will have a
bigger impact since very cold weather will last late into the
weekend and beginning of next week.
Monday lake snows will be in a weaker state with falling Lake
inversion heights. However a backing flow will bring the snow back
to the City of Buffalo with several inches of snow falling. Later in
the day the band of snow will be weakening over the North Country.
A shortwave digging into the large upper level trough Monday night
will bring additional synoptic moisture back over the Lakes. This
trough will reinvigorate the lake snows on a SW to SSW
flow...highlighting Niagara County and the Saint Lawrence Valley
Monday night before the bands shift southward. Several inches of
snow is again likely off Lake Erie, with additional half foot plus
east of Lake Ontario. While the focus of snow will be lake effect,
the passing shortwave may also generate a few light snow showers
outside of these bands.
Temperatures will be well below normal this period, with highs some
10 degrees or more below normal. Highs both Sunday and Monday will
be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Lows will be in the teens to
interior single digits. These temperatures and still gusty winds
will generate wind chill values in the single digits through much of
this time period.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A shortwave moving across the region Tuesday will provide some
moisture, allowing lake effect snows to continue east/northeast of
the lakes. Went well above model guidance for POPs, although
accumulations should be relatively light (ballpark of a few inches).
Lake snows will taper off Tuesday night with the departure of the
shortwave and lowering inversion heights.
After this, a ridge of high pressure will move across the area
Wednesday with fair weather, followed by a MUCH WELCOMED warming
trend for the end of the week. Highs on Friday will be in the upper
40s to lower 50s. A weak wave of low pressure will pass by to the
north, possibly producing a few light rain showers on Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cyclonic flow will continue to filter Arctic air across the
Lower Lakes tonight into Saturday. Crippling lake snows and
blowing snow will continue to produce VLIFR/LIFR at KBUF, KIAG
and KART terminals. These bands will stay nearly stationary,
with only subtle oscillations through the TAF cycle. Outside of
the crippling lake snows, all other terminals will only see some
minor improvements or adjustments in CIGS/VSBYS.
Outlook...
Saturday Night...Windy with snow and severe blowing and drifting of
snow. IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake effect snow to the
northeast and east of the lakes.
Sunday...Localized IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow. Lake effect snow settles south of Buffalo early Sunday,
and south of Watertown early Sunday evening.
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow lifting back
northward towards Buffalo and Watertown
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR early in lake snows. A return to VFR with lake
snows ending through the afternoon.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong and wide-reaching storm will bring intense winds across the
Great Lakes into the weekend. There will be high end gales with
frequent storm force gusts, or possibly even outright storm force
sustained winds, for which a Storm Warning for Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario remain in effect as outlined below. Wave heights may exceed
25 to 30 feet on both Lakes during this time. The strong winds and
plunging temperatures which will also pose a heavy freezing spray
hazard for this afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Thus, a Heavy
Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect for Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Intense southwest wind gusts to over 60 knots produced a seiche
event on Lake Erie, with a peak of 10.7 feet. This is close to
3 feet above the 8 foot flood stage. Winds will gradually
diminish through Saturday. As of midnight, levels were still
around 8.5 feet at Buffalo, causing lakeshore flooding at some
spots along Lake Erie and the Niagara River. Levels are expected
to gradually drop as winds subside during the day Saturday.
Very strong southwest gales to 40-45 knots with storm force
gusts will also bring the potential for lakeshore flooding and
shoreline erosion to the eastern end of Lake Ontario through
Sunday morning. Lake levels are below normal, which will lower
the potential for lakeshore flooding, but with onshore winds
this strong along with expected considerable wave action the
threat is a bit more elevated for this event.
Temperatures in the teens and single digits will result in freezing
spray along the lakeshore areas, and water from lakeshore flooding
will likely freeze after the water levels subside.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001-002-010-011-
     019-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ001-
     010-019-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ004>006-013-014.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ006-007.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ021.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for SLZ022-
         024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock/JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...AR/Thomas
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TMA
FXUS61 KBUF 240309                                              2022358 0309
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1009 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will impact the region through the Christmas
weekend. A strong Arctic cold front will exit by early afternoon
with increasingly widespread strong winds. Very strong winds are
expected to continue through Saturday with wind-driven heavy lake
effect snows northeast of the Lakes creating blizzard conditions.
Heavy lake snows will last through at least Christmas Day, possibly
lingering into the first part of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
...LIFE THREATENING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY...
Crippling BLIZZARD well underway across the Niagara Frontier with a
prolonged period of zero visibility across much of the Buffalo metro
area. The Buffalo radar showing a single band of intense snowfall
with rates of 2+ inches per hour parked across the Buffalo metro
area extending into northwest Genesee, southwest Orleans and
southern Niagara counties. The expectation is that the lake band
will meander a bit to the north and south, but it appears that
it will remain parked across the Buffalo metro area tonight through
Saturday, and will not start to drift south until Saturday night.
As for the winds, surface pressure over southern Ontario will
continue to intensify to around 961mb tonight as it wobbles into
Quebec. Peak wind gusts have already exceeded 70 mph across parts of
western New York today and most guidance suggests that even stronger
winds are possible tonight, before starting to very gradually
subside during the day Saturday. The combination of the lake snows
and intense winds will maintain the blizzard conditions across the
Niagara Frontier through at least the day Saturday.
Heavy lake effect snow now underway across the eastern Lake Ontario
region. The heaviest lake band is expected to become nearly
stationary across most of Jefferson county tonight and through the
day Saturday. Very strong winds of up to 65 mph will also bring
crippling blizzard conditions to Jefferson county as well, including
the city of Watertown, lasting through Saturday night.
Travel will be impossible where the heaviest snow and strongest
winds are occurring concurrently. Power outages will become
increasingly widespread which continues to be a big concern,
especially with the cold temperature expected for the holiday
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect snow will continue Sunday...though reducing wind speeds
will end blizzard conditions...with lake effect snow warnings
likely.
Sunday a deep upper level closed low will be just east of James Bay,
with a filling, but still very deep surface low to the east of James
Bay as well. This filling low with a relaxing pressure gradient will
allow for wind speeds to fall back towards sustained 20 to 30 mph
...and gusts to 45 mph Sunday morning which will then further weaken
slowly through the day. Blowing snow will still occur, with heavy
bands of lake effect snow pushing southward towards the Buffalo
Southtowns and Tug Hill creating still difficult driving conditions
and very poor visibilities. Towards Buffalo and the Northtowns there
will likely be some improvement with the band of snow pushing
southward. A foot of fresh snow is likely Christmas day east of Lake
Erie, with a foot or two east of Lake Ontario where a favorable
fetch/lift over the Lake Ontario waters could focus upwards to 2
feet on the Northern Tug Hill, with a foot of snow near Watertown.
Lowering inversion heights and a drier air mass will cause lake
snows to diminish in intensity off Lake Erie Sunday night.
Meanwhile, a weakening band will move back northward as winds
shift back to the southwest. Fairly intense lake snows will
continue east of Lake Ontario. It's possible that winter
headlines may need to be extended into Oswego County with around
a foot of snow possible across far northern portions of the
county with upslope snow in this corner of the county.
Also, any power outages that last for a longer period will have a
bigger impact since very cold weather will last late into the
weekend and beginning of next week.
Monday lake snows will be in a weaker state with falling Lake
inversion heights. However a backing flow will bring the snow back
to the City of Buffalo with several inches of snow falling. Later in
the day the band of snow will be weakening over the North Country.
A shortwave digging into the large upper level trough Monday night
will bring additional synoptic moisture back over the Lakes. This
trough will reinvigorate the lake snows on a SW to SSW
flow...highlighting Niagara County and the Saint Lawrence Valley
Monday night before the bands shift southward. Several inches of
snow is again likely off Lake Erie, with additional half foot plus
east of Lake Ontario. While the focus of snow will be lake effect,
the passing shortwave may also generate a few light snow showers
outside of these bands.
Temperatures will be well below normal this period, with highs some
10 degrees or more below normal. Highs both Sunday and Monday will
be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Lows will be in the teens to
interior single digits. These temperatures and still gusty winds
will generate wind chill values in the single digits through much of
this time period.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A shortwave moving across the region Tuesday will provide some
moisture, allowing lake effect snows to continue east/northeast of
the lakes. Went well above model guidance for POPs, although
accumulations should be relatively light (ballpark of a few inches).
Lake snows will taper off Tuesday night with the departure of the
shortwave and lowering inversion heights.
After this, a ridge of high pressure will move across the area
Wednesday with fair weather, followed by a MUCH WELCOMED warming
trend for the end of the week. Highs on Friday will be in the upper
40s to lower 50s. A weak wave of low pressure will pass by to the
north, possibly producing a few light rain showers on Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cyclonic flow will continue to filter Arctic air across the
Lower Lakes tonight into Saturday. Crippling lake snows and
blowing snow will continue to produce VLIFR/LIFR at KBUF, KIAG
and KART terminals. These bands will stay nearly stationary,
with only subtle oscillations through the TAF cycle. Outside of
the crippling lake snows, all other terminals will only see some
minor improvements or adjustments in CIGS/VSBYS.
Outlook...
Saturday Night...Windy with snow and severe blowing and drifting of
snow. IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake effect snow to the
northeast and east of the lakes.
Sunday...Localized IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow. Lake effect snow settles south of Buffalo early Sunday,
and south of Watertown early Sunday evening.
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow lifting back
northward towards Buffalo and Watertown
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR early in lake snows. A return to VFR with lake
snows ending through the afternoon.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong and wide-reaching storm will bring intense winds across the
Great Lakes into the weekend. There will be high end gales with
frequent storm force gusts, or possibly even outright storm force
sustained winds, for which a Storm Warning for Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario remain in effect as outlined below. Wave heights may exceed
25 to 30 feet on both Lakes during this time. The strong winds and
plunging temperatures which will also pose a heavy freezing spray
hazard for this afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Thus, a Heavy
Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect for Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Intense southwest wind gusts to over 60 knots produced a seiche
event on Lake Erie this morning. The peak lake level at Buffalo
reached close to 9.7 feet above low water datum. A secondary
peak in the lake level occurred early this afternoon when the
lake level reached near 10.7 feet above low water datum, which
is close to 3 feet above the 8 foot flood stage
Sustained winds to at least 45 knots with frequent gusts over
storm force in the central and eastern basin will continue to
keep the lake level very high at Buffalo into tonight.
Significant lakeshore flooding is expected along the Lake Erie
shore, including Canalside, Buffalo Riverworks, the Hoover Beach
and Woodlawn areas of Hamburg, Dunkirk and Sunset Bay areas,
and Route 5 in Hamburg.
Flooding will also occur along the Niagara River. The elevated
Lake Erie water results in more water flowing down the Niagara
River, which can cause flooding along the riverside in locations
such as South Grand Island, and Cayuga Island in the city of
Niagara Falls.
Very strong southwest gales to 40-45 knots with storm force gusts
will also bring the potential for lakeshore flooding and shoreline
erosion to the eastern end of Lake Ontario through Sunday
morning. Lake levels are below normal, which will lower the
potential for lakeshore flooding, but with onshore winds this
strong along with expected considerable wave action the threat
is a bit more elevated for this event.
Temperatures in the teens and single digits will result in freezing
spray along the lakeshore areas, and water from lakeshore flooding
will likely freeze after the water levels subside.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001-002-010-011-
     019-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for NYZ001-010-
     019-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for NYZ004>006-
     013-014.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ006-007.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ021.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for LEZ020.
         Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...AR/Thomas/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TMA
WXTLIST: done
WXTLIST APR=AFD WST=KBUF DAY=22359 TIM=00:00:59 23:59:59 NUM=12
FXUS61 KBUF 252245                                              2022359 2245
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
545 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy lake effect effect snow will continue east of Lake Ontario
tonight through Tuesday with several feet of additional accumulation
in the most intense bands. Lake effect snow will continue to drop
locally heavy snow east of Lake Erie through tonight over the
Buffalo Southtowns before the band weakens rapidly and moves north
across Buffalo Monday morning. One last period of lake effect snow
will develop Tuesday, then this storm will finally end by midweek
with a significant warming trend late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE LAKES...
The intense low which brought blizzard conditions the past few days
is weakening and moving slowly east across central and northern
Quebec. This will maintain a moist cyclonic flow of cold air over
the eastern Great Lakes and support lake effect snow through
Tuesday. A shortwave and weak secondary cold front will cross the
eastern Great Lakes late Monday night and Tuesday, allowing for a
brief intensification of lake effect snow.
Winds will remain strong enough through tonight to produce blowing
and drifting snow, but nothing like the past few days. Most of the
blowing snow will end by Monday morning.
Off Lake Erie...
A moderately strong band of snow continues late this afternoon to
the northeast of the lake, from the southwest corner of Erie County
into the Buffalo Southtowns. This band of snow will remain nearly in
place through the first half of tonight with minor north/south
oscillations. The band will also weaken through the evening hours.
Late tonight and Monday morning the weakening band will move north
across the Buffalo Metro area, but it will be in a much weakened
state with only minor impacts expected.
The weak lake snow will continue through Monday and Monday evening,
then intensify again Monday night and Tuesday morning over the
Buffalo Northtowns. The band will drift south to the Buffalo
Southtowns by early Tuesday, and continue through the morning before
gradually weakening. The lake effect snow will completely end by
late Tuesday afternoon or evening.
Total additional accumulations will still reach 1-2 feet across
southwest Erie County and the Buffalo Southtowns from a combination
of events tonight through Tuesday. The City of Buffalo will see 6-
12" in several different batches, greatest in South Buffalo and
lowest in North Buffalo.
Off Lake Ontario...
A strong band of snow continues late this afternoon over Central
Jefferson and northern Lewis counties. This band will drift very
slowly south into southern Jefferson and northern/western Lewis
County tonight, and likely clip far northern Oswego County as well.
This band should intensify further tonight with 3+"/hr snowfall
rates in the center of the band.
This band will remain in place through early Monday morning, and
then drift north across Jefferson County and weaken mid to late
morning Monday. The band may weaken to scattered light snow showers
briefly Monday afternoon, then the approach of the trough and
associated deeper moisture, improved convergence, and synoptic
support will allow the band to intensify again over northern
Jefferson County Monday evening, where it will remain much of the
night before drifting south and east across Jefferson and northern
Lewis counties Tuesday morning. The band will the weaken in the
afternoon.
Additional accumulations in the most persistent bands will be 2-3
feet, with a small area of 3+ feet possible in southern Jefferson
County and the northern Tug Hill.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak clipper looks to move across the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Ongoing southwest flow lake effect off Lake Ontario will
be weakening Tuesday night with little in the way of additional
accumulation expected as temperatures warm aloft and ridging starts
to work in, with a period of dry weather Wednesday night. Arctic
airmass starts to retreat Wednesday into Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This period will feature a ridge along the eastern seaboard and
a trough over the central CONUS leading to deep layer south-
southwesterly flow over the region. One wave of low pressure
will move from the Plains towards the Upper Midwest early in the
period. Sufficient moisture return for some rain showers is
expected, though the better forcing stays off to our
west/northwest, this should keep rainfall amounts fairly light.
Next more significant wave takes shape over the southern Plains
Friday and Friday night and lifts into the Great Lakes over the
weekend. This wave of low pressure will bring a better surge of
moisture and will track closer to the local area, meaning it will
bring greater rain chances. The main potential for rain appears to
be later Saturday into Sunday. Models have the typical differences
in track/timing of the low for 6-7 days out so expect better
specifics as we get closer but it'll be a mild system, but may .
still have hydrologic impacts with expected snowmelt and rainfall
amounts, but too early to deal with specifics.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Heavy lake snows will continue ENE of both Lakes tonight. Terminal
wise...KBUF has improved to VFR with the lake band just to the south
of the airport. However...gusty winds will still bring lower VSBYS
at times in blowing snow. KART is an entirely different story...the
lake band will bring LIFR conditions with near or zero visibility.
Both these lake bands will oscillate a bit today but should remain
fairly stationary E to NE of the Lakes. Otherwise...all other
terminals will see a mix of MVFR to VFR across the region.
Lakes snows will slowly drop south of KART this evening, with
improving VSBYS and CIGS. That said...lake snows will still continue
to produce localized LIFR/IFR conditions east of the lakes. Outside
of those bands...terminals will see MVFR to VFR at area airports.
Winds will also continue to relax with less blowing snow away from
the lake snows.
Tonight lake effect snow will move mainly south of KART with local
VLIFR conditions continuing. The lake effect snow will then move
back north Monday morning and weaken with time, crossing the KART
airfield with IFR VSBY. Off Lake Erie, the lake band will move north
Monday morning and bring some IFR to KBUF, but it will be much
weaker than the past few days.
Outlook...
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR early in lake snows. A return to VFR with lake
snows ending through the afternoon.
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds have come down below gales on Lake Ontario. An extended period
of moderate west to southwest winds will continue to bring Small
Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tonight
through the middle of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding next weekend, with any flooding
likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt
will start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather
will continue through at least the weekend with highs in the lower
50s at most locations. There is high confidence in this, however
snow melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a system will bring generally light
rainfall to the region next weekend, with rainfall amounts in the
quarter to half inch range. This would push some of the Buffalo
Creeks and Black River to action stage, but it should take around an
inch of rain from this sytem before flooding becomes a concern.
There's a small risk this will happen, but in general the flood risk
is low but non-zero.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ006.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ010-011-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...AR/Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 252041                                              2022359 2041
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
341 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy lake effect effect snow will continue east of Lake Ontario
tonight through Tuesday with several feet of additional accumulation
in the most intense bands. Lake effect snow will continue to drop
locally heavy snow east of Lake Erie through tonight over the
Buffalo Southtowns before the band weakens rapidly and moves north
across Buffalo Monday morning. One last period of lake effect snow
will develop Tuesday, then this storm will finally end by midweek
with a significant warming trend late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE LAKES...
The intense low which brought blizzard conditions the past few days
is weakening and moving slowly east across central and northern
Quebec. This will maintain a moist cyclonic flow of cold air over
the eastern Great Lakes and support lake effect snow through
Tuesday. A shortwave and weak secondary cold front will cross the
eastern Great Lakes late Monday night and Tuesday, allowing for a
brief intensification of lake effect snow.
Winds will remain strong enough through tonight to produce blowing
and drifting snow, but nothing like the past few days. Most of the
blowing snow will end by Monday morning.
Off Lake Erie...
A moderately strong band of snow continues late this afternoon to
the northeast of the lake, from the southwest corner of Erie County
into the Buffalo Southtowns. This band of snow will remain nearly in
place through the first half of tonight with minor north/south
oscillations. The band will also weaken through the evening hours.
Late tonight and Monday morning the weakening band will move north
across the Buffalo Metro area, but it will be in a much weakened
state with only minor impacts expected.
The weak lake snow will continue through Monday and Monday evening,
then intensify again Monday night and Tuesday morning over the
Buffalo Northtowns. The band will drift south to the Buffalo
Southtowns by early Tuesday, and continue through the morning before
gradually weakening. The lake effect snow will completely end by
late Tuesday afternoon or evening.
Total additional accumulations will still reach 1-2 feet across
southwest Erie County and the Buffalo Southtowns from a combination
of events tonight through Tuesday. The City of Buffalo will see 6-
12" in several different batches, greatest in South Buffalo and
lowest in North Buffalo.
Off Lake Ontario...
A strong band of snow continues late this afternoon over Central
Jefferson and northern Lewis counties. This band will drift very
slowly south into southern Jefferson and northern/western Lewis
County tonight, and likely clip far northern Oswego County as well.
This band should intensify further tonight with 3+"/hr snowfall
rates in the center of the band.
This band will remain in place through early Monday morning, and
then drift north across Jefferson County and weaken mid to late
morning Monday. The band may weaken to scattered light snow showers
briefly Monday afternoon, then the approach of the trough and
associated deeper moisture, improved convergence, and synoptic
support will allow the band to intensify again over northern
Jefferson County Tuesday evening, where it will remain much of
Tuesday night before drifting south and east across Jefferson and
northern Lewis counties Tuesday morning. The band will the weaken in
the afternoon.
Additional accumulations in the most persistent bands will be 2-3
feet, with a small area of 3+ feet possible in southern Jefferson
County and the northern Tug Hill.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak clipper looks to move across the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Ongoing southwest flow lake effect off Lake Ontario will
be weakening Tuesday night with little in the way of additional
accumulation expected as temperatures warm aloft and ridging starts
to work in, with a period of dry weather Wednesday night. Arctic
airmass starts to retreat Wednesday into Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This period will feature a ridge along the eastern seaboard and
a trough over the central CONUS leading to deep layer south-
southwesterly flow over the region. One wave of low pressure
will move from the Plains towards the Upper Midwest early in the
period. Sufficient moisture return for some rain showers is
expected, though the better forcing stays off to our
west/northwest, this should keep rainfall amounts fairly light.
Next more significant wave takes shape over the southern Plains
Friday and Friday night and lifts into the Great Lakes over the
weekend. This wave of low pressure will bring a better surge of
moisture and will track closer to the local area, meaning it will
bring greater rain chances. The main potential for rain appears to
be later Saturday into Sunday. Models have the typical differences
in track/timing of the low for 6-7 days out so expect better
specifics as we get closer but it'll be a mild system, but may .
still have hydrologic impacts with expected snowmelt and rainfall
amounts, but too early to deal with specifics.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Heavy lake snows will continue ENE of both Lakes tonight. Terminal
wise...KBUF has improved to VFR with the lake band just to the south
of the airport. However...gusty winds will still bring lower VSBYS
at times in blowing snow. KART is an entirely different story...the
lake band will bring LIFR conditions with near or zero visibility.
Both these lake bands will oscillate a bit today but should remain
fairly stationary E to NE of the Lakes. Otherwise...all other
terminals will see a mix of MVFR to VFR across the region.
Lakes snows will slowly drop south of KART this evening, with
improving VSBYS and CIGS. That said...lake snows will still continue
to produce localized LIFR/IFR conditions east of the lakes. Outside
of those bands...terminals will see MVFR to VFR at area airports.
Winds will also continue to relax with less blowing snow away from
the lake snows.
Tonight lake effect snow will move mainly south of KART with local
VLIFR conditions continuing. The lake effect snow will then move
back north Monday morning and weaken with time, crossing the KART
airfield with IFR VSBY. Off Lake Erie, the lake band will move north
Monday morning and bring some IFR to KBUF, but it will be much
weaker than the past few days.
Outlook...
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR early in lake snows. A return to VFR with lake
snows ending through the afternoon.
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds have come down below gales on Lake Ontario. An extended period
of moderate west to southwest winds will continue to bring Small
Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tonight
through the middle of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding next weekend, with any flooding
likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt
will start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather
will continue through at least the weekend with highs in the lower
50s at most locations. There is high confidence in this, however
snow melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a system will bring generally light
rainfall to the region next weekend, with rainfall amounts in the
quarter to half inch range. This would push some of the Buffalo
Creeks and Black River to action stage, but it should take around an
inch of rain from this sytem before flooding becomes a concern.
There's a small risk this will happen, but in general the flood risk
is low but non-zero.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ006.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ010-011-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...AR/Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 251753                                              2022359 1753
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1253 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will continue to bring lake effect snow
to the region through tonight, with lighter lake effect snows
lingering through Tuesday. Following this storm, a significant
warming trend will develop late in the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Winds have diminished considerably compared to yesterday,
although it still is quite windy with gusts of 40 to 45 mph in
some spots. Winds have diminished most across Western NY,
allowing the Blizzard Warning to be replaced with a Winter Storm
Warning for Erie and Genesee counties. This will be for a
combination of lake effect snow and blowing snow, which will
also continue to be a problem today. A Blizzard warning remains
in effect for Jefferson County through early this afternoon.
Off Lake Erie...
Diminishing winds have allowed a better defined convergence
band to develop across the snow belts east of Lake Erie. Radar
suggests snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour likely in
this band.
The forecast favors the RGEM and more northward high resolution
guidance which tends to handle the convergence which develops
on Lake Erie and its interaction with the Chautauqua Ridge.
Suspect that this band will lock into place and produce a
relatively narrow area with heavy accumulations around 2 feet.
This band should focus on the traditional snow belts, extending
along the Lake Erie shoreline to Silver Creek, Hamburg, and East
Aurora. This will be out of hardest hit areas, but still will
have significant impacts on travel, including Interstate 90.
The band will weaken this evening as fetch shortens and
convergence weakens over the lake. The weakened band of snow
will move back north into Buffalo late tonight and Monday
morning, but it will be in a much weaker state by then.
Off Lake Ontario...
Boundary layer flow will begin to veer to the WSW through early
this morning. The increasing fetch across Lake Ontario will
allow for the lake effect snow to intensify across northern
Jefferson County, then drift south across Watertown to southern
Jefferson and northern/western Lewis counties by late afternoon
or early evening. The band of snow will continue to intensify
through this time frame, with 3-4 inch per hour snowfall rates
possible.
The lake effect snow will continue across southern Jefferson and
Lewis counties through late tonight or early Monday morning. On
Monday the lake effect snow will move quickly back north across
Jefferson County and weaken with time as boundary layer flow
veers to the SSW.

Additional accumulations of 2-3 feet are possible in the most
persistent bands across southern Jefferson and northern/western
Lewis counties, and 1-2 feet for northern Jefferson County with
around a foot across far northern Oswego County.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday surface high pressure to our west will push towards our
region, backing the surface winds while also lowering inversion
heights and increasing the amount of dry air. This will lift lake
effect snow, in a weakened state, back northward across Buffalo and
Niagara Falls Monday morning with a fresh coating to an inch...and
later in the day back northward across Watertown with a fresh inch
across northern Jefferson County.
Monday night these weakened bands of lake effect snow on a SSW wind
will intensify as a mid level trough passes across the region.
This trough will enhance the ambient moisture around the lake bands
such that reinvigorated bands of snow will form across Niagara
county and the Saint Lawrence Valley. As the flow veers to SW'erly
the bands of snow will settle across metro Buffalo and Watertown.
The Lake Erie band with no upstream connection will bring an
additional 2-4 inches of snow Monday night through midday Tuesday,
while the Lake Ontario band of snow will range slightly higher with
a connection to Lake Erie...with amounts 3 to 6 inches.
Temperatures well below normal Tuesday will be not as cold
Wednesday, but still below normal as the arctic airmass continues to
retreat.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An anomalous upper ridge builds overhead during the mid to late week
period. This results in a high confidence forecast of a gradual and
welcome warming trend, with the next chance for precipitation in the
form of rain showers late in the week as the next trough approaches.
Showers should be likely by Saturday as moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico continues to surge northward across the region. Much of the
area will sees high temperatures in the 50s both Friday and
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Heavy lake snows will continue ENE of both Lakes today. Terminal
wise...KBUF has improved to briefly VFR with the lake band just to
the south of the airport. However...gusty winds will still bring
lower VSBYS at times. KART is an entirely different story...the lake
band will bring LIFR conditions with near or zero visibility. Both
these lake bands will oscillate a bit today but should remain fairly
stationary E to NE of the Lakes. Otherwise...all other terminals
will see a mix of MVFR to VFR across the region.
Lakes snows will slowly drop south of KART this evening, with
improving VSBYS and CIGS. That said...lake snows will still continue
to produce localized LIFR/IFR conditions east of the lakes. Outside
of those bands...terminals will see MVFR to VFR at area airports.
Winds will also continue to relax with less blowing snow away from
the lake snows.
Outlook...
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow lifting
back northward towards Buffalo and Watertown
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR early in lake snows. A return to VFR with lake
snows ending through the afternoon.
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong and wide-reaching storm near James Bay will maintain
gales on much of our waters through today. The strong winds and
cold temperatures will also maintain a risk for heavy freezing
spray.
Gales will gradually drop or transition to small craft headlines
as the low weakens and winds diminish. The diminishing winds
will also allow the Heavy Freezing Spray warnings to be dropped,
likely at the same time the gales are dropped.
After this a moderate flow will require small craft headlines
for at least some of our waters into the middle of the weak.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Southwest gales to 40 knots will bring the potential for
lakeshore flooding and shoreline erosion to the eastern end of
Lake Ontario through this morning. Lake levels are near normal,
which will lower the potential for lakeshore flooding compared
to past years, but with onshore winds this strong along with
expected considerable wave action the threat is a bit more
elevated for this event.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ001>003-013-021.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ006.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ010-011-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon
         for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for LOZ042>044.
         Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ045-
         062>065.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hitchcock/TMA
FXUS61 KBUF 251135                                              2022359 1136
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
635 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will continue to bring lake effect snow
to the region through tonight, with lighter lake effect snows
lingering through Tuesday. Following this storm, a significant
warming trend will develop late in the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Winds have diminished considerably compared to yesterday,
although it still is quite windy with gusts of 40 to 45 mph in
some spots. Winds have diminished most across Western NY,
allowing the Blizzard Warning to be replaced with a Winter Storm
Warning for Erie and Genesee counties. This will be for a
combination of lake effect snow and blowing snow, which will
also continue to be a problem today. A Blizzard warning remains
in effect for Jefferson County through early this afternoon.
Off Lake Erie...
Diminishing winds have allowed a better defined convergence
band to develop across the snow belts east of Lake Erie. Radar
suggests snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour likely in
this band.
The forecast favors the RGEM and more northward high resolution
guidance which tends to handle the convergence which develops
on Lake Erie and its interaction with the Chautauqua Ridge.
Suspect that this band will lock into place and produce a
relatively narrow area with heavy accumulations around 2 feet.
This band should focus on the traditional snow belts, extending
along the Lake Erie shoreline to Silver Creek, Hamburg, and East
Aurora. This will be out of hardest hit areas, but still will
have significant impacts on travel, including Interstate 90.
The band will weaken this evening as fetch shortens and
convergence weakens over the lake. The weakened band of snow
will move back north into Buffalo late tonight and Monday
morning, but it will be in a much weaker state by then.
Off Lake Ontario...
Boundary layer flow will begin to veer to the WSW through early
this morning. The increasing fetch across Lake Ontario will
allow for the lake effect snow to intensify across northern
Jefferson County, then drift south across Watertown to southern
Jefferson and northern/western Lewis counties by late afternoon
or early evening. The band of snow will continue to intensify
through this time frame, with 3-4 inch per hour snowfall rates
possible.
The lake effect snow will continue across southern Jefferson and
Lewis counties through late tonight or early Monday morning. On
Monday the lake effect snow will move quickly back north across
Jefferson County and weaken with time as boundary layer flow
veers to the SSW.

Additional accumulations of 2-3 feet are possible in the most
persistent bands across southern Jefferson and northern/western
Lewis counties, and 1-2 feet for northern Jefferson County with
around a foot across far northern Oswego County.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday surface high pressure to our west will push towards our
region, backing the surface winds while also lowering inversion
heights and increasing the amount of dry air. This will lift lake
effect snow, in a weakened state, back northward across Buffalo and
Niagara Falls Monday morning with a fresh coating to an inch...and
later in the day back northward across Watertown with a fresh inch
across northern Jefferson County.
Monday night these weakened bands of lake effect snow on a SSW wind
will intensify as a mid level trough passes across the region.
This trough will enhance the ambient moisture around the lake bands
such that reinvigorated bands of snow will form across Niagara
county and the Saint Lawrence Valley. As the flow veers to SW'erly
the bands of snow will settle across metro Buffalo and Watertown.
The Lake Erie band with no upstream connection will bring an
additional 2-4 inches of snow Monday night through midday Tuesday,
while the Lake Ontario band of snow will range slightly higher with
a connection to Lake Erie...with amounts 3 to 6 inches.
Temperatures well below normal Tuesday will be not as cold
Wednesday, but still below normal as the arctic airmass continues to
retreat.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An anomalous upper ridge builds overhead during the mid to late week
period. This results in a high confidence forecast of a gradual and
welcome warming trend, with the next chance for precipitation in the
form of rain showers late in the week as the next trough approaches.
Showers should be likely by Saturday as moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico continues to surge northward across the region. Much of the
area will sees high temperatures in the 50s both Friday and
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The band off Lake Erie will remain south of KBUF/KIAG for today
and well into tonight. However, gusty winds will continue to
produce blowing snow at these locations. Lake snows will bring
IFR conditions to KJHW for this morning before settling across
the snow belts which will not impact any of our TAF sites. The
band off Lake Erie will then move northward, reaching KBUF late
tonight. By this time it will be considerably weaker, with vsby
around 1SM expected as it moves across KBUF.
Heavy lake snow will remain across KART through most of the day
today, with improving conditions as the band drops south around
sunset today.
Outlook...
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow lifting
back northward towards Buffalo and Watertown
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR early in lake snows. A return to VFR with lake
snows ending through the afternoon.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong and wide-reaching storm near James Bay will maintain
gales on much of our waters through today. The strong winds and
cold temperatures will also maintain a risk for heavy freezing
spray.
Gales will gradually drop or transition to small craft headlines
as the low weakens and winds diminish. The diminishing winds
will also allow the Heavy Freezing Spray warnings to be dropped,
likely at the same time the gales are dropped.
After this a moderate flow will require small craft headlines
for at least some of our waters into the middle of the weak.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Southwest gales to 40 knots will bring the potential for
lakeshore flooding and shoreline erosion to the eastern end of
Lake Ontario through this morning. Lake levels are near normal,
which will lower the potential for lakeshore flooding compared
to past years, but with onshore winds this strong along with
expected considerable wave action the threat is a bit more
elevated for this event.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ001>003-013-021.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ006-008.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ010-011-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon
         for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for LOZ042>044.
         Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ045-
         062>065.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon
         for LOZ045-062>065.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...TMA/Zaff
AVIATION...AR/Apffel
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hitchcock/TMA
FXUS61 KBUF 250843                                              2022359 0843
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
343 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will continue to bring lake effect snow
to the region through tonight, with lighter lake effect snows
lingering through Tuesday. Following this storm, a significant
warming trend will develop late in the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Winds have diminished considerably during the early morning
hours, although there are still gusts to 45 mph which are
producing blowing and drifting snow within lake effect bands.
Based on this, have cancelled the blizzard warning for Niagara
and Orleans counties a bit early, and replaced it with a Winter
Weather Advisory. Also converted the Winter Storm Warning to an
advisory for Monroe County.
Off Lake Erie...
Diminishing winds has allowed a better defined convergence band
to develop across the snow belts east of Lake Erie. Radar
suggests intense snows with rates of 3 inches per hour likely
in this band. Winds have diminished, but still are concerned
about localized blizzard conditions in this band.
Forecast favors the RGEM and more northward high resolution
guidance which tends to handle the convergence which develops on
Lake Erie and its interaction with the Chautauqua Ridge.
Suspect that this band will lock into place and produce a
relatively narrow area with heavy accumulations around 2 feet.
This band should focus on the traditional snow belts, extending
along the Lake Erie shoreline to Silver Creek, Hamburg, and East
Aurora. This will move the band out of hardest hit areas, but
still will have significant impacts on travel in these area,
including Interstate 90. Blowing snow will be an issue, but with
winds diminishing expect that widespread blizzard conditions
will end around 7 a.m. when the Blizzard Warning is set to
expire.
The band will weaken this evening as fetch shortens and
convergence weakens over the lake. The weakened band of snow
will move back north into Buffalo late tonight and Monday
morning, but it will be in a much weaker state by then.
Off Lake Ontario...
Boundary layer flow will begin to veer to the WSW through early
this morning. The increasing fetch across Lake Ontario will
allow for the lake effect snow to intensify across northern
Jefferson County, then drift south across Watertown to southern
Jefferson and northern/western Lewis counties by late afternoon
or early evening. The band of snow will continue to intensify
through this time frame, with 3-4 inch per hour snowfall rates
possible.
The lake effect snow will continue across southern Jefferson and
Lewis counties through late tonight or early Monday morning. On
Monday the lake effect snow will move quickly back north across
Jefferson County and weaken with time as boundary layer flow
veers to the SSW.

Additional accumulations of 2-3 feet are possible in the most
persistent bands across southern Jefferson and northern/western
Lewis counties, and 1-2 feet for northern Jefferson County with
around a foot across far northern Oswego County.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday surface high pressure to our west will push towards our
region, backing the surface winds while also lowering inversion
heights and increasing the amount of dry air. This will lift lake
effect snow, in a weakened state, back northward across Buffalo and
Niagara Falls Monday morning with a fresh coating to an inch...and
later in the day back northward across Watertown with a fresh inch
across northern Jefferson County.
Monday night these weakened bands of lake effect snow on a SSW wind
will intensify as a mid level trough passes across the region.
This trough will enhance the ambient moisture around the lake bands
such that reinvigorated bands of snow will form across Niagara
county and the Saint Lawrence Valley. As the flow veers to SW'erly
the bands of snow will settle across metro Buffalo and Watertown.
The Lake Erie band with no upstream connection will bring an
additional 2-4 inches of snow Monday night through midday Tuesday,
while the Lake Ontario band of snow will range slightly higher with
a connection to Lake Erie...with amounts 3 to 6 inches.
Temperatures well below normal Tuesday will be not as cold
Wednesday, but still below normal as the arctic airmass continues to
retreat.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An anomalous upper ridge builds overhead during the mid to late week
period. This results in a high confidence forecast of a gradual and
welcome warming trend, with the next chance for precipitation in the
form of rain showers late in the week as the next trough approaches.
Showers should be likely by Saturday as moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico continues to surge northward across the region. Much of the
area will sees high temperatures in the 50s both Friday and
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The band off Lake Erie will drop slowly southward, JUST south of
KBUF. There will be some drifting snow but expect conditions to
improve during today as winds diminish. Drifting snow may also
impact KIAG, but expect vsby to improve to 3-6SM by this morning
at both terminals. The band will lift north back across KBUF
tonight, producing a couple hours of LIFR, but impacts will be
more typical lake effect without the strong winds.
A mix of IFR/MVFR in snow at KROC/KJHW as lake bands clip the
terminals through this morning. Then improving to VFR this
afternoon and tonight.
Conditions will worsen at KART early this morning as the band
intensifies and moves across the terminal. Expect vsby to 1/4 in
heavy snow and blowing snow, with improving conditions as the
band drops south around sunset today.
Outlook...
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow lifting
back northward towards Buffalo and Watertown
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR early in lake snows. A return to VFR with lake
snows ending through the afternoon.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong and wide-reaching storm near James Bay will maintain
gales on much of our waters through today. The strong winds and
cold temperatures will also maintain a risk for heavy freezing
spray.
Gales will gradually drop or transition to small craft headlines
as the low weakens and winds diminish. The diminishing winds
will also allow the Heavy Freezing Spray warnings to be dropped,
likely at the same time the gales are dropped.
After this a moderate flow will require small craft headlines
for at least some of our waters into the middle of the weak.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Southwest gales to 40 knots will bring the potential for
lakeshore flooding and shoreline erosion to the eastern end of
Lake Ontario through this morning. Lake levels are near normal,
which will lower the potential for lakeshore flooding compared
to past years, but with onshore winds this strong along with
expected considerable wave action the threat is a bit more
elevated for this event.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ001>003-013-021.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ006-
     007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ006-008.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ007.
     Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ010-011-
     085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon
         for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon
         for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon
         for LOZ045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for LOZ042>044.
         Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ045-
         062>065.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...TMA/Zaff
AVIATION...AR/Apffel
MARINE...Hitchcock
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hitchcock/TMA
FXUS61 KBUF 250626                                              2022359 0626
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
126 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will continue to bring lake effect snow
to the region today, and lingering into the first part of next
week. Following this storm, a significant warming trend will
develop later next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Winds have diminished considerably during the early morning
hours, although there are still gusts to 45 mph which are
producing blowing and drifting snow. However, at this point,
the blizzard conditions are mainly confined to lake effect bands
which extend east/northeast of the lakes.
Off Lake Erie...
The band of heavy lake effect snow continues to drift south, and
extends along the Lake Erie shoreline to the Buffalo southtowns
early this morning. A gradual southward trend will continue
overnight, but this will be slowed due to the weakening winds
which will result in a more typical convergence band developing
on Lake Erie. Based on this, will favor RGEM and northward high
resolution guidance for band placement. Have adjusted the peak
snowfall amounts slightly northward on the last update, with
the greatest amounts of additional snowfall for this event
extending from Silver Creek to the Boston Hills. Most persistent
lake snows could produce an additional two feet of snow at these
locations, but impacts will be a bit less due to the diminishing
winds today.
The band will weaken in intensity late this afternoon as fetch
shortens and convergence weakens over the lake. The weakened
band of snow will move back north into Buffalo late tonight and
Monday morning, but it will be in a much weaker state by then.
Off Lake Ontario...
Boundary layer flow will begin to veer to the WSW through early
this morning. The increasing fetch across Lake Ontario and
allowing for the lake effect snow to intensify across northern
Jefferson County, then drift south across Watertown to southern
Jefferson and northern/western Lewis counties by late afternoon
or early evening. The band of snow will continue to intensify
through this time frame, with 3-4 inch per hour snowfall rates
possible.
The lake effect snow will continue across southern Jefferson and
Lewis counties through late tonight or early Monday morning. On
Monday the lake effect snow will move quickly back north across
Jefferson County and weaken with time as boundary layer flow
veers to the SSW.

Additional accumulations of 2-3 feet are possible in the most
persistent bands across southern Jefferson and northern/western
Lewis counties, and 1-2 feet for northern Jefferson County with
around a foot across far northern Oswego County.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday lake snows will be in a weaker state with falling Lake
inversion heights. However a backing flow will bring the snow
back to the City of Buffalo with an inch of snow falling late
Sunday night and Monday morning. Later in the day the band of
snow will be weakening over the North Country as it will lose
its upstream connection to now Lake Erie as well as having the
band oriented over a much smaller fetch of lake.
A shortwave digging around the large upper level trough Monday
night will bring additional synoptic moisture back over the
Lakes. This trough will reinvigorate the lake snows on a SW to
SSW flow...highlighting Niagara County and the Saint Lawrence
Valley Monday night before the bands shift southward. Several
inches of snow is again likely off Lake Erie, with additional
half foot plus east of Lake Ontario. While the focus of snow
will be lake effect, the passing shortwave may also generate a
few light snow showers outside of these bands.
Temperatures will be well below normal this period, with highs
some 10 degrees or more below normal. Highs both Sunday and
Monday will be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Lows will be in
the teens to interior single digits. These temperatures and
still gusty winds will generate wind chill values in the single
digits through much of this time period.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Anomalous upper ridge builds overhead during the mid to late week
period. High confidence in a gradual and welcome warming trend
through this period, with the next chance for precipitation in the
form of rain showers coming late in the week as the next trough
approaches. A lot of the area will sees high temperatures in the 50s
both Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The band off Lake Erie will drop slowly southward, JUST south of
KBUF. There will be some drifting snow but expect conditions to
improve during today as winds diminish. Drifting snow may also
impact KIAG, but expect vsby to improve to 3-6SM by this morning
at both terminals. The band will lift north back across KBUF
tonight, producing a couple hours of LIFR, but impacts will be
more typical lake effect without the strong winds.
A mix of IFR/MVFR in snow at KROC/KJHW as lake bands clip the
terminals through this morning. Then improving to VFR this
afternoon and tonight.
Conditions will worsen at KART early this morning as the band
intensifies and moves across the terminal. Expect vsby to 1/4 in
heavy snow and blowing snow, with improving conditions as the
band drops south around sunset today.
Outlook...
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow lifting
back northward towards Buffalo and Watertown
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR early in lake snows. A return to VFR with lake
snows ending through the afternoon.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong and wide-reaching storm will bring intense winds across the
Great Lakes into the weekend. Storm force winds have finally
ended, but high end gales will last well into Sunday across Lake
Ontario. The strong winds and plunging temperatures which will
also pose a heavy freezing spray hazard through Sunday
afternoon. Thus, a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in
effect for Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.
Winds will continue to diminish tonight, but will likely be
strong enough to require small craft headlines for some of the
waters through Monday night.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Southwest gales to 40 knots will bring the potential for
lakeshore flooding and shoreline erosion to the eastern end of
Lake Ontario through this morning. Lake levels are near normal,
which will lower the potential for lakeshore flooding compared
to past years, but with onshore winds this strong along with
expected considerable wave action the threat is a bit more
elevated for this event.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ001-002-
     010-011-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ003.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ006-
     007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ006-008.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ013-021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon
         for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon
         for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon
         for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Gale Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for
         LOZ042>044.
         Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ045-
         062>065.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...AR/Apffel
MARINE...Hitchcock
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hitchcock/TMA
FXUS61 KBUF 250223                                              2022359 0223
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
923 PM EST Sat Dec 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will continue to batter the region through
the Christmas weekend. Very strong winds will continue into this
evening with wind-driven heavy lake effect snows northeast of
the Lakes creating severe blizzard conditions. Heavy lake snows
will last through at least Christmas Day, possibly lingering
into the first part of next week. Following this storm, a
significant warming trend will develop later next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...LIFE THREATENING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY TONIGHT...
SEVERE BLIZZARD conditions will continue tonight across the Buffalo
Metro area and Niagara Frontier, and in Jefferson County with heavy
lake effect snow and near zero visibility as blowing snow is driven
by 50-55 mph wind gusts.
Very strong surface low pressure vertically stacked beneath a deep
mid level low will continue to spin near the southern end of James
Bay this evening, then move northeast across northern Quebec
Sunday and Sunday night, gradually weakening with time. This
will maintain a cyclonic flow of cold air and a favorable lake
effect snow setup through Sunday night.
Wind gusts will continue to run in the 40-45 mph range this evening,
then gradually start to subside tonight and Sunday. This will start
to end the severe blizzard conditions by Sunday, but winds will
still be strong enough to produce blowing and drifting snow through
Sunday evening before diminishing further.
Off Lake Erie...
The band of heavy lake effect snow had drifted south 10-15 miles
from its northernmost position earlier today, but has now stalled
its southward drift. The band is focused on the City of Buffalo and
the immediate suburbs, still including the Northtowns. Radar imagery
is starting to show a bifurcated band structure, and its possible
the previously dominant convergence zone on the northern edge of the
band is starting to give way to a new convergence zone farther south
and east. Upstream radar, satellite, and surface observations
suggest the band will start another southward drift soon, and should
get just south of the Buffalo Airport shortly after midnight.
Sunday morning the lake effect snow will continue to drift south,
centering on southern Erie and Wyoming counties by mid to late
morning, and also the far northern and western portions of
Chautauqua County and northwest Cattaraugus county. The band will
weaken in intensity by Sunday afternoon as fetch shortens and
convergence weakens over the lake. The weakened band of snow will
move back north into Buffalo late Sunday night and Monday morning,
but it will be in a much weaker state by then.
Additional accumulations of 1-2 feet are likely in the most
persistent bands, bringing storm totals into the 4-5 foot range in
the hardest hit areas.
Off Lake Ontario...
Lake effect snow will remain disorganized through this evening,
but with severe blowing snow roads will still be nearly
impassable. Boundary layer flow will begin to veer to the WSW
late tonight and Sunday morning, increasing fetch across Lake
Ontario and allowing for the lake effect snow to intensify
across northern Jefferson County, then drift south across
Watertown to southern Jefferson and northern/western Lewis
counties by late afternoon or early evening. The band of snow
will continue to intensify through this time frame, with 3-4
inch per hour snowfall rates possible.
The lake effect snow will continue across southern Jefferson and
Lewis counties through late Sunday night or early Monday morning. On
Monday the lake effect snow will move quickly back north across
Jefferson County and weaken with time as boundary layer flow veers
to the SSW.

Additional accumulations of 2-4 feet are possible in the most
persistent bands across southern Jefferson and northern/western
Lewis counties, and 1-2 feet for northern Jefferson County with
around a foot across far northern Oswego County.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday lake snows will be in a weaker state with falling Lake
inversion heights. However a backing flow will bring the snow
back to the City of Buffalo with an inch of snow falling late
Sunday night and Monday morning. Later in the day the band of
snow will be weakening over the North Country as it will lose
its upstream connection to now Lake Erie as well as having the
band oriented over a much smaller fetch of lake.
A shortwave digging around the large upper level trough Monday
night will bring additional synoptic moisture back over the
Lakes. This trough will reinvigorate the lake snows on a SW to
SSW flow...highlighting Niagara County and the Saint Lawrence
Valley Monday night before the bands shift southward. Several
inches of snow is again likely off Lake Erie, with additional
half foot plus east of Lake Ontario. While the focus of snow
will be lake effect, the passing shortwave may also generate a
few light snow showers outside of these bands.
Temperatures will be well below normal this period, with highs
some 10 degrees or more below normal. Highs both Sunday and
Monday will be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Lows will be in
the teens to interior single digits. These temperatures and
still gusty winds will generate wind chill values in the single
digits through much of this time period.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Anomalous upper ridge builds overhead during the mid to late week
period. High confidence in a gradual and welcome warming trend
through this period, with the next chance for precipitation in the
form of rain showers coming late in the week as the next trough
approaches. A lot of the area will sees high temperatures in the 50s
both Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tonight...lake snows off Lake Erie will continue to slowly drift
south impacting terminals east and southeast of the lake. Expect
IFR/LIFR flight conditions to continue in the band of lake effect
snow with significant blowing and drifting. Off Lake Ontario...the
southward drift of the lake band will likely not occur until early
Sunday morning. KART should expect to see a continuation of LIFR/IFR
through the day Sunday before the band settles south of the
terminal.
Outlook...
Sunday...Localized IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow. Lake effect snows will be south of KBUF, and south of
KART by late Sunday afternoon.
Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow lifting back
northward towards Buffalo and Watertown
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR early in lake snows. A return to VFR with lake
snows ending through the afternoon.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong and wide-reaching storm will bring intense winds across the
Great Lakes into the weekend. Storm force winds have finally
ended, but high end gales will last well into Sunday across Lake
Ontario. The strong winds and plunging temperatures which will
also pose a heavy freezing spray hazard through Sunday
afternoon. Thus, a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in
effect for Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.
Winds will continue to diminish Sunday night, but will likely be
strong enough to require small craft headlines for some of the
waters through Monday night.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Levels on Lake Erie have dropped below 8 feet, allowing the
Lakeshore Flood Warning to be dropped for the Lake Erie
shorelines. Very strong southwest gales to 40-45 knots will
also bring the potential for lakeshore flooding and shoreline
erosion to the eastern end of Lake Ontario through Sunday
morning. Lake levels are near normal, which will lower the
potential for lakeshore flooding compared to past years, but
with onshore winds this strong along with expected considerable
wave action the threat is a bit more elevated for this event.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001-002-010-011-
     085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ003.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ006-007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ006-008.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for NYZ013-021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for LOZ042>044.
         Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for LOZ045-062>065.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...Hitchcock
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hitchcock/TMA
WXTLIST: done
WXTLIST APR=AFD WST=KBUF DAY=22360 TIM=00:00:59 23:59:59 NUM=12
FXUS61 KBUF 262350                                              2022360 2350
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
650 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering cold air will continue to support accumulating lake snows
east and northeast of both lakes tonight and Tuesday...then a marked
pattern change will result in significant day to day warming through
the remainder of the week. In fact...high temperatures for most
areas Friday through New Years Day will reach into the 50s.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
H85 temps in the vcnty of -14c will continue to support lake snows
through tonight...but the good news is that the snow will be very
fluffy in nature and should result in lower impacts. The bands
will be transitory in nature...so this should help with mitigating
further impacts as well.
As of early evening...very weak lake snows off Lake Erie are found
across Northern Erie and far southern Niagara counties...on a
general 230-240 degree flow. Meanwhile off Lake Ontario...a general
220 degree flow continues to broadcast weak/diffuse lake snows
across much of Jefferson county.
As we push through this evening...a shortwave trough will push east
and across our region. This will veer winds across Lake Erie a bit
to 240-250 degrees...with the somewhat increased fetch across the
lake and enhancement from the passing trough helping to reinvigorate
the lake snows some across Northern Erie county. Given the expected
very fluffy nature of the snow...this should result in another 3-6
inches across Northern Erie county...including the Buffalo metro
area. As the steering flow continues to back to around 250-260
degrees during the wee hours of Tuesday morning...the band will
settle across the Buffalo Southtowns. A Winter Weather Advisory will
remain in effect for all of Erie county through tonight to cover
this scenario.
A very similar scenario can be expected east of Lake Ontario tonight
with the initially broad/diffuse lake snows initially becoming more
concentrated across Watertown and points north...then shifting south
to areas between Watertown and the northern slopes of the Tug Hill
as winds veer in the wake of the passing shortwave trough. Nighttime
accumulations will generally range from 5 to 9 inches...with
these again being focused near/over Watertown.
On Tuesday...a large sfc high over the Southeast will encourage
winds to back more to the southwest. This will signal the start of a
healthy warm advective pattern...which will finally lend itself to
the end of the lake snows. Before that takes place though...lake
snows focused on the Buffalo Southtowns and in the near/immediately
south of Watertown in the morning will gradually weaken while
advancing back to the north as a result of the aforementioned
backing of the steering flow. Accumulations on Tuesday will range
from 1 to 3 inches near and south of Buffalo...with 4-7 inches
expected near Watertown.
A deepening southwest flow will push the last vestiges of the lake
snows well north of Buffalo and to the Thousand Islands region. A
crushingly low cap (<4kft) and marked decreases in lake driven
instability will bring an end to he lake snows overnight...but
another shortwave trough will pass north of Lake Ontario during the
wee hours of the morning...and this synoptic feature could touch off
some nuisance snow showers near and east of Lake Ontario.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures will surpass the freezing mark on Wednesday. A warm
front will move across north central NY. Snow showers will likely
skirt the Saint Lawrence Valley and northern Tug Hill region
Wednesday morning. Dry conditions are expected elsewhere. High
temperatures will reach the upper 30s to low 40s, low to mid 30s
across the Tug Hill. An upper level ridge will build overhead
Wednesday night through Thursday night. Mostly dry weather with day
to day warming through Thursday. Low temperatures will fall to the
low to mid 30s across western NY to the upper 20s east of Lake
Ontario Wednesday night. Then, temperatures will reach the upper 40s
to low 50s on Thursday. Clouds will increase Thursday through
Thursday night with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
This period will feature a pronounced warming trend with a ridge
along the eastern seaboard/western Atlantic and a trough over the
central CONUS leading to deep layer south-southwesterly flow over
the region.
Mild conditions will continue next weekend. A cold front will track
across the central Great Lakes Friday however it may dissolve into a
broad surface trough by the time it gets to the eastern Great Lakes
region. Rain showers will remain possible but it doesn't look
widespread. There will be progressively warmer air moving into the
region with daytime highs rising well into the mid and upper 50s
Friday. This will be around 20 degrees above average by the end of
the work week. The upper level ridge will move east of the region
and a trough across the Central Plains will move into the Great
Lakes region Friday night into the weekend. A surge of moisture is
expected to move northward and across the region resulting in high
confidence that widespread rain will encompass the region through at
least Saturday. Another wave of low pressure may move across the
region Sunday into Monday.
As mentioned above, it will remain on the mild side which may
eventually bring the potential for some hydrologic issues with
expected snowmelt and rainfall amounts. See the Hydrology section
below for more details. Putting this into perspective, the New Years
holiday timeframe will feel like a different season as compared to
the Christmas holiday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As winds veer to the west-southwest tonight...weak lake snows just
north of KBUF will become a bit better organized and move back
across the KBUF terminal...while producing IFR to LIFR conditions.
Meanwhile...general IFR to LIFR weather will remain in place for
KART and vicinity as weak/diffuse lake snows there also become
better organized and push a bit southward through the night. Outside
of the lake snows...mainly dry conditions and general MVFR/VFR
conditions will prevail.
On Tuesday...the lake snows will shift back northward across the
KBUF/KART terminals while gradually weakening. Expect general IFR
conditions to prevail within these...with some improvement expected
at KBUF later in the afternoon as the lake snows push mainly north
of the terminal. Outside of the lake snows...general MVFR to VFR
ceilings will continue to prevail.
Outlook...
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
Saturday...VFR to MVFR in rain.
&&
.MARINE...
An extended period of moderate west to southwest winds will continue
to bring Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario through the middle of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding during the upcoming weekend,
with any flooding likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt will
start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather will
continue through at least the weekend with highs in the lower 50s
at most locations. There is high confidence in this, however snow
melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a system will bring generally light
rainfall to the region next weekend, with rainfall amounts in the
quarter to half inch range. This would push some of the Buffalo
Creeks and Black River to action stage, but it should take around an
inch of rain from this system before flooding becomes a concern.
There's a small risk this will happen, but in general the flood
risk is low but non-zero.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ010-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for
         LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR/RSH
NEAR TERM...JJR/RSH
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK/JM
AVIATION...JJR/RSH
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock/JJR
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 262106                                              2022360 2106
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
406 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold air in place through Tuesday will continue to support
accumulating lake snows east and northeast of both lakes...then a
pattern change will result in significant day to day warming through
the remainder of the week. In fact...high temperatures for most
areas Friday through New Years Day will reach into the 50s.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
H85 temps in the vcnty of -14c will continue to support lake snows
through tonight...but the good news is that the snow will be very
fluffy in nature and should result in lower impacts. The bands
will be transitory in nature...so this should help with mitigating
further impacts as well.
A shortwave trough will approach the region this afternoon. Winds
ahead of this feature have already backed to 220 over Lake Erie with
the now very diffuse area of light lake snow north of Buffalo in
Niagara county. Additional snowfall from mid afternoon to nightfall
will generally be an inch or less.
Meanwhile...a 240 flow off Lake Ontario from midday has also
backed to 220. This has sent weak lake snows north of Watertown
across the Thousand Islands region. Little snow accumulations are
expected with this activity through the remaining daylight hours.
As the trough pushes through the region tonight though...winds over
Lake Erie will veer to 240-250 degrees during the first half of the
night. While the cap should remain around 5kft...the synoptic
feature will enhance the fluffy snow a bit to allow for another 3-6
inches across the northern half of the county...including the
Buffalo metro area. As the steering flow continues to back to around
250-260 deg during the wee hours of Tuesday morning...the band will
settle across the Buffalo Southtowns. A Winter Weather Advisory will
remain in effect for all of Erie county through tonight to cover
this scenario.
A very similar scenario can be expected east of Lake Ontario tonight
with lake snows initially being concentrated north of Watertown...
then as the steering flow veers in the wake of the passing shortwave
trough...the snows will push back to the south across Watertown and
stall between the metro area and the northern slopes of the Tug
Hill. Nighttime accumulations will generally range from 5 to 9
inches...again being focused near/over Watertown.
On Tuesday...a large sfc high over the Southeast will encourage
winds to back more to the southwest. This will signal the start of a
healthy warm advective pattern...which will finally lend itself to
the end of the lake snows. Before that takes place though...lake
snows focused on the Buffalo Southtowns and in the near/immediately
south of Watertown in the morning will gradually weaken while
advancing back to the north as a result of the aforementioned
backing of the steering flow. Accumulations on Tuesday will range
from 1 to 3 inches near and south of Buffalo...with 4-7 inches
expected near Watertown.
A deepening southwest flow will push the last vestiges of the lake
snows well north of Buffalo and to the Thousand Islands region. A
crushingly low cap (<4kft) and marked decreases in lake driven
instability will bring an end to he lake snows overnight...but
another shortwave trough will pass north of Lake Ontario during the
wee hours of the morning...and this synoptic feature could touch off
some nuisance snow showers near and east of Lake Ontario.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures will surpass the freezing mark on Wednesday. A warm
front will move across north central NY. Snow showers will likely
skirt the Saint Lawrence Valley and northern Tug Hill region
Wednesday morning. Dry conditions are expected elsewhere. High
temperatures will reach the upper 30s to low 40s, low to mid 30s
across the Tug Hill. An upper level ridge will build overhead
Wednesday night through Thursday night. Mostly dry weather with day
to day warming through Thursday. Low temperatures will fall to the
low to mid 30s across western NY to the upper 20s east of Lake
Ontario Wednesday night. Then, temperatures will reach the upper 40s
to low 50s on Thursday. Clouds will increase Thursday through
Thursday night with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
This period will feature a pronounced warming trend with a ridge
along the eastern seaboard/western Atlantic and a trough over the
central CONUS leading to deep layer south-southwesterly flow over
the region.
Mild conditions will continue next weekend. A cold front will track
across the central Great Lakes Friday however it may dissolve into a
broad surface trough by the time it gets to the eastern Great Lakes
region. Rain showers will remain possible but it doesn't look
widespread. There will be progressively warmer air moving into the
region with daytime highs rising well into the mid and upper 50s
Friday. This will be around 20 degrees above average by the end of
the work week. The upper level ridge will move east of the region
and a trough across the Central Plains will move into the Great
Lakes region Friday night into the weekend. A surge of moisture is
expected to move northward and across the region resulting in high
confidence that widespread rain will encompass the region through at
least Saturday. Another wave of low pressure may move across the
region Sunday into Monday.
As mentioned above, it will remain on the mild side which may
eventually bring the potential for some hydrologic issues with
expected snowmelt and rainfall amounts. See the Hydrology section
below for more details. Putting this into perspective, the New Years
holiday timeframe will feel like a different season as compared to
the Christmas holiday.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
While VFR to MVFR conditions will be in place across the region
through the afternoon. IFR cigs will persist at KBUF and KART.
As winds veer to the west-southwest tonight...the lake snows in the
vcnty of KIAG will move back across the KBUF terminal with IFR to
LIFR conditions. IFR to LIFR weather will remain in place for KART.
While most areas will experience VFR weather on Tuesday...IFR
conditions in lake snows will persist bit longer for KBUF and
KART...especially through midday.
Outlook...
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
Saturday...VFR to MVFR in rain.
&&
.MARINE...
There will be an extended period of moderate west to southwest winds
will continue to bring Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario through the middle of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding during the upcoming weekend,
with any flooding likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt will
start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather will
continue through at least the weekend with highs in the lower 50s
at most locations. There is high confidence in this, however snow
melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a system will bring generally light
rainfall to the region next weekend, with rainfall amounts in the
quarter to half inch range. This would push some of the Buffalo
Creeks and Black River to action stage, but it should take around an
inch of rain from this system before flooding becomes a concern.
There's a small risk this will happen, but in general the flood
risk is low but non-zero.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ010-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for
         LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK/JM
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 261850                                              2022360 1850
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
150 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold air in place through Tuesday will continue to support
accumulating lake snows east and northeast of both lakes...then a
pattern change will result in significant day to day warming through
the remainder of the week. In fact...high temperatures for most
areas Friday through New Years Day will reach into the 50s.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
H85 temps in the vcnty of -14c will continue to support lake snows
through tonight...but the good news is that the snow will be very
fluffy in nature and should result in lower impacts. The bands
will be transitory in nature...so this should help with mitigating
further impacts as well.
A shortwave trough will approach the region this afternoon. Winds
ahead of this feature have already backed to 220 over Lake Erie with
the now very diffuse area of light lake snow north of Buffalo in
Niagara county. Additional snowfall from mid afternoon to nightfall
will generally be an inch or less.
Meanwhile...a 240 flow off Lake Ontario from midday has also
backed to 220. This has sent weak lake snows north of Watertown
across the Thousand Islands region. Little snow accumulations are
expected with this activity through the remaining daylight hours.
As the trough pushes through the region tonight though...winds over
Lake Erie will veer to 240-250 degrees during the first half of the
night. While the cap should remain around 5kft...the synoptic
feature will enhance the fluffy snow a bit to allow for another 3-6
inches across the northern half of the county...including the
Buffalo metro area. As the steering flow continues to back to around
250-260 deg during the wee hours of Tuesday morning...the band will
settle across the Buffalo Southtowns. A Winter Weather Advisory will
remain in effect for all of Erie county through tonight to cover
this scenario.
A very similar scenario can be expected east of Lake Ontario tonight
with lake snows initially being concentrated north of Watertown...
then as the steering flow veers in the wake of the passing shortwave
trough...the snows will push back to the south across Watertown and
stall between the metro area and the northern slopes of the Tug
Hill. Nighttime accumulations will generally range from 5 to 9
inches...again being focused near/over Watertown.
On Tuesday...a large sfc high over the Southeast will encourage
winds to back more to the southwest. This will signal the start of a
healthy warm advective pattern...which will finally lend itself to
the end of the lake snows. Before that takes place though...lake
snows focused on the Buffalo Southtowns and in the near/immediately
south of Watertown in the morning will gradually weaken while
advancing back to the north as a result of the aforementioned
backing of the steering flow. Accumulations on Tuesday will range
from 1 to 3 inches near and south of Buffalo...with 4-7 inches
expected near Watertown.
A deepening southwest flow will push the last vestiges of the lake
snows well north of Buffalo and to the Thousand Islands region. A
crushingly low cap (<4kft) and marked decreases in lake driven
instability will bring an end to he lake snows overnight...but
another shortwave trough will pass north of Lake Ontario during the
wee hours of the morning...and this synoptic feature could touch off
some nuisance snow showers near and east of Lake Ontario.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front will slowly advance northeastward Wednesday with a few
more light snow showers possible across the North Country Wednesday
morning, with drier and warmer weather expected Wednesday afternoon
and Wednesday night as said warm front finally moves northeast of
the region, allowing progressively warmer air to work its' way into
western and northcentral NY. This will be reflected in our
temperatures as lows in the teens and 20s Tuesday night will
increase to the low and mid 30s (mid and upper 20s North Country)
Wednesday night. Daytime highs on Wednesday will be some 10 degrees
higher than the previous day, with highs ranging through the 30s,
and even a few 40 degree readings possible across portions of the
Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This period will feature a pronounced warming trend with a ridge
along the eastern seaboard/western Atlantic and a trough over the
central CONUS leading to deep layer south-southwesterly flow over
the region.
One wave of low pressure will move from the central Plains towards
the upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario during the first
half of the period. Deep southwesterly flow straight out of the
GOMEX will provide sufficient moisture return, however with the mid
and upper level ridge residing just to our east shunting the better
forcing off to our west/northwest, expect a good deal of dry time
with just the possibility for a few scattered light rain showers
(yes...RAIN showers) from time to time for our Thursday and Friday.
Of note will be the progressively warmer air moving into the region
with daytime highs mainly in the 40s (upper 30s Tug Hill/western
Dacks) on Thursday, further rising well into the mid and upper 40s
Friday, with low to mid 50s across the lake plains. This will be
some 15-20 degrees above average by the end of the work week.
Very mild conditions continue into next weekend. Meanwhile, the next
more significant wave takes shape over the southern Plains Friday
and Friday night and lifts into the Great Lakes over the weekend.
This wave of low pressure will bring a better surge of moisture and
will track closer to the local area as ridging presses further east
into the Atlantic. This will bring better precipitation chances,
with the best potential for rain appearing to be later Saturday into
Sunday. Models have the typical differences in track/timing of the
low almost a week out, so expect better specifics as we get closer.
As mentioned above, it will remain on the mild side which may
eventually bring the potential for some hydrologic issues with
expected snowmelt and rainfall amounts. That said, it's way too
early to deal with details. Putting this into perspective, the New
Years holiday timeframe will feel like a different season as
compared to the Christmas holiday.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
While VFR to MVFR conditions will be in place across the region
through the afternoon. IFR cigs will persist at KBUF and KART.
As winds veer to the west-southwest tonight...the lake snows in the
vcnty of KIAG will move back across the KBUF terminal with IFR to
LIFR conditions. IFR to LIFR weather will remain in place for KART.
While most areas will experience VFR weather on Tuesday...IFR
conditions in lake snows will persist bit longer for KBUF and
KART...especially through midday.
Outlook...
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
Saturday...VFR to MVFR in rain.
&&
.MARINE...
There will be an extended period of moderate west to southwest winds
will continue to bring Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario through the middle of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding during the upcoming weekend,
with any flooding likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt will
start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather will
continue through at least the weekend with highs in the lower 50s
at most locations. There is high confidence in this, however snow
melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a system will bring generally light
rainfall to the region next weekend, with rainfall amounts in the
quarter to half inch range. This would push some of the Buffalo
Creeks and Black River to action stage, but it should take around an
inch of rain from this system before flooding becomes a concern.
There's a small risk this will happen, but in general the flood
risk is low but non-zero.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ010-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for
         LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 261518                                              2022360 1518
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1018 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold air in place through Tuesday will continue to support
accumulating lake snows east and northeast of both lakes...then a
pattern change will result in significant day to day warming through
the remainder of the week. In fact...high temperatures for most
areas Friday through New Years Day will reach into the 50s.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
H85 temps in the vcnty of -14c will continue to support lake snows
this afternoon through tonight...but the good news is that the snow
will be very fluffy in nature and should result in lower impacts.
The bands will be transitory in nature...so this should help with
mitigating further impacts as well.
A shortwave trough will approach the region this afternoon. Winds
ahead of this feature have already backed to 220-230 over Lake Erie
with the now diffuse area of lake snow pushing north of Buffalo to
Niagara county. Additional snowfall from late morning through
nightfall will generally range from 2 to 4 inches in this area...but
again...it will be quite fluffy.
Meanwhile...a general 240 flow will persists off Lake Ontario
through the afternoon with a broad area of snow holding in place
across much of Jefferson and Lewis counties. While a lake snow
warning remains in effect for these counties...a cap around 6kft
should help to hold snowfall rates at about an inch to an inch and a
half/per hour...with the fluffy nature of the snow assisting in the
higher end of that range.
As the trough pushes through the region tonight...winds over Lake
Erie will back to 240-250 degrees during the first half of the
night. While the cap should remain around 5kft...the synoptic
feature should enhance the fluffy snow a bit to allow for another 3-
6 inches across the northern half of the county...including the
Buffalo metro area. As the steering flow continues to back to around
250-260 deg during the wee hours of Tuesday morning...the band will
settle across the Buffalo Southtowns. A Winter Weather Advisory will
remain in effect for all of Erie county through tonight to cover
this scenario.
A very similar can be expected east of Lake Ontario tonight with
lake snows initially being concentrated north of Watertown...then as
the steering flow veers in the wake of the passing shortwave
trough...the snows will push back to the south across Watertown and
stall between the metro area and the northern slopes of the Tug
Hill. Nighttime accumulations will generally range from 5 to 9
inches...again being focused near/over Watertown.
On Tuesday...a large sfc high over the Southeast will encourage
winds to back to the southwest. This will signal the start of a
healthy warm advective pattern...which will finally lend itself to
the end of the lake snows. Before that takes place though...lake
snows focused on the Buffalo Southtowns and in the near/immediately
south of Watertown in the morning will gradually weaken while
advancing back to the north as a result of the aforementioned
backing of the steering flow. Accumulations on Tuesday will range
from 1 to 3 inches near and south of Buffalo...with 4-7 inches
expected near Watertown.
A deepening southwest flow will push the last vestiges of the lake
snows well north of Buffalo and to the Thousand Islands region. A
crushingly low cap (<4kft) and marked decreases in lake driven
instability will bring an end to he lake snows overnight...but
another shortwave trough will pass north of Lake Ontario during the
wee hours of the morning...and this synoptic feature could touch off
some nuisance snow showers near and east of Lake Ontario.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front will slowly advance northeastward Wednesday with a few
more light snow showers possible across the North Country Wednesday
morning, with drier and warmer weather expected Wednesday afternoon
and Wednesday night as said warm front finally moves northeast of
the region, allowing progressively warmer air to work its' way into
western and northcentral NY. This will be reflected in our
temperatures as lows in the teens and 20s Tuesday night will
increase to the low and mid 30s (mid and upper 20s North Country)
Wednesday night. Daytime highs on Wednesday will be some 10 degrees
higher than the previous day, with highs ranging through the 30s,
and even a few 40 degree readings possible across portions of the
Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This period will feature a pronounced warming trend with a ridge
along the eastern seaboard/western Atlantic and a trough over the
central CONUS leading to deep layer south-southwesterly flow over
the region.
One wave of low pressure will move from the central Plains towards
the upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario during the first
half of the period. Deep southwesterly flow straight out of the
GOMEX will provide sufficient moisture return, however with the mid
and upper level ridge residing just to our east shunting the better
forcing off to our west/northwest, expect a good deal of dry time
with just the possibility for a few scattered light rain showers
(yes...RAIN showers) from time to time for our Thursday and Friday.
Of note will be the progressively warmer air moving into the region
with daytime highs mainly in the 40s (upper 30s Tug Hill/western
Dacks) on Thursday, further rising well into the mid and upper 40s
Friday, with low to mid 50s across the lake plains. This will be
some 15-20 degrees above average by the end of the work week.
Very mild conditions continue into next weekend. Meanwhile, the next
more significant wave takes shape over the southern Plains Friday
and Friday night and lifts into the Great Lakes over the weekend.
This wave of low pressure will bring a better surge of moisture and
will track closer to the local area as ridging presses further east
into the Atlantic. This will bring better precipitation chances,
with the best potential for rain appearing to be later Saturday into
Sunday. Models have the typical differences in track/timing of the
low almost a week out, so expect better specifics as we get closer.
As mentioned above, it will remain on the mild side which may
eventually bring the potential for some hydrologic issues with
expected snowmelt and rainfall amounts. That said, it's way too
early to deal with details. Putting this into perspective, the New
Years holiday timeframe will feel like a different season as
compared to the Christmas holiday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
While VFR to MVFR conditions will be in place across the region
through the afternoon...lake snows east-northeast of both lakes will
support IFR to LIFR conditions at KIAG and KART.
As winds veer to the west-southwest tonight...the lake snows in the
vcnty of KIAG will move back across the KBUF terminal with IFR to
LIFR conditions. IFR to LIFR weather will remain in place for KART.
Outlook...
Tuesday...Localized IFR in lake effect snow east/northeast of the
lakes at KBUF/KIAG/KART. Otherwise mainly VFR.
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
There will be an extended period of moderate west to southwest winds
will continue to bring Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario through the middle of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding next weekend, with any flooding
likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt
will start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather
will continue through at least the weekend with highs in the lower
50s at most locations. There is high confidence in this, however
snow melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a system will bring generally light
rainfall to the region next weekend, with rainfall amounts in the
quarter to half inch range. This would push some of the Buffalo
Creeks and Black River to action stage, but it should take around an
inch of rain from this system before flooding becomes a
concern. There's a small risk this will happen, but in general
the flood risk is low but non-zero.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ010-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for
         LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 261137                                              2022360 1137
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
637 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow will continue east of the lakes through Tuesday,
then this storm will finally end by midweek. Before it ends, it will
drop another one to two feet of snow east of Lake Ontario, with
lesser amounts off Lake Erie. After this, there will be a
significant warming trend late this week which will last through the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE LAKES...
This storm will continue to evolve into a more 'typical' lake effect
snow event. Bands will oscillate in location and intensity as a
shortwave passes through, but lake snows will continue to some
extent through Tuesday.
Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow off Lake Erie,
where warnings were set to expire. Meanwhile, will keep Winter Storm
Warnings in place off Lake Ontario where there's still a bit more
wind which is causing significant blowing and drifting snow.
Off Lake Erie...
A moderately strong band of snow continues northeast of Lake Erie,
across Buffalo, Cheektowaga, and Clarence. This band will
weaken as it lifts northward across the Buffalo Northtowns this
morning. It still will produce 3 to 6 inches of snow as it
moves northward across Erie County this morning.
The band will weaken further as it settles across Niagara County
this afternoon before it drops back southward across the Buffalo
metro area tonight. The band should strengthen as it moves back
across the Buffalo Southtowns late tonight before lifting back
north Tuesday morning and dissipating Tuesday afternoon. This
will result in another 3 to 6 inches. In total, this will bring
another 6 to 12 inches of fluffy lake snow to the Buffalo metro
area, however this will occur during a 36 hour period. Winds
will not be nearly as strong, so blowing and drifting snow will
be much less of an issue. The snow will mainly impact Erie
county, with bands not extending too far off the lake. Also,
snowfall rates will generally be more manageable, around an inch
per hour.
Off Lake Ontario...
A well defined plume of moderate to heavy snow remains in place over
central Jefferson, northern Lewis, and far northern Oswego
counties this morning. The band will remain nearly stationary
into this morning, producing heavy snowfall rates of 2"/hr. The
band will weaken some as it drifts north across Jefferson
County this morning, with only light disorganized snows expected
this afternoon.
The approach of a trough and associated deeper moisture, improved
convergence, and synoptic support will allow the band to intensify
again over northern Jefferson County this evening. It will meander
across northern Jefferson and far northern Lewis counties for much
of tonight and Tuesday before weakening late in the day Tuesday.
This will result in an additional 1-2 feet of snow in most
persistent bands which will be across Jefferson and far northern
Lewis counties.
Outside of the localized lake snows, the weather will be cold but
otherwise uneventful during the period. Some light snow showers are
possible tonight with the passage of the shortwave trough.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Elongated surface high pressure will reside along the Atlantic Coast
Tuesday night into Wednesday, while a weak clipper system quickly
moves east from the upper Great Lakes to southern Quebec Tuesday
night. An associated warm front will slowly move northeastward
through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. It will remain cold
enough for some lingering SW flow lake effect off Lake Ontario to
continue through the first half of Tuesday night, before strong warm
advection raises 850 temps enough to finally shut down the lake
effect machine off Lake Ontario later Tuesday night. That said,
associated weak mid level shortwave will just graze the northern
half of NYS. This feature combined with strong warm advection will
continue the chances for a bit more in the way of light synoptic
snow showers across areas north of I-90 for the second half of
Tuesday night. Total snow accumulations Tuesday night will be minor,
ranging from an additional inch or two across the North Country, to
no more than a coating or so for areas from the Thruway corridor to
the south shore of Lake Ontario. Dry weather expected south of the
Thruway.
Warm front will continue to slowly advance northeastward Wednesday
with a few more light snow showers possible across the North Country
Wednesday morning, with drier and warmer weather expected Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night as said warm front finally moves
northeast of the region, allowing progressively warmer air to work
its' way into western and northcentral NY. This will be reflected in
our temperatures as lows in the teens and 20s Tuesday night,
increase to the low and mid 30s (mid and upper 20s North Country)
Wednesday night. Daytime highs on Wednesday will be some 10 degrees
higher than the previous day, with highs ranging through the 30s,
and even a few 40 degree readings possible across portions of the
Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This period will feature a pronounced warming trend with a ridge
along the eastern seaboard/western Atlantic and a trough over the
central CONUS leading to deep layer south-southwesterly flow over
the region.
One wave of low pressure will move from the central Plains towards
the upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario during the first
half of the period. Deep southwesterly flow straight out of the
GOMEX will provide sufficient moisture return, however with the mid
and upper level ridge residing just to our east shunting the better
forcing off to our west/northwest, expect a good deal of dry time
with just the possibility for a few scattered light rain showers
(yes...RAIN showers) from time to time for our Thursday and Friday.
Of note will be the progressively warmer air moving into the region
with daytime highs mainly in the 40s (upper 30s Tug Hill/western
Dacks) on Thursday, further rising well into the mid and upper 40s
Friday, with low to mid 50s across the lake plains. This will be
some 15-20 degrees above average by the end of the work week.
Very mild conditions continue into next weekend. Meanwhile, the next
more significant wave takes shape over the southern Plains Friday
and Friday night and lifts into the Great Lakes over the weekend.
This wave of low pressure will bring a better surge of moisture and
will track closer to the local area as ridging presses further east
into the Atlantic. This will bring better precipitation chances,
with the best potential for rain appearing to be later Saturday into
Sunday. Models have the typical differences in track/timing of the
low almost a week out, so expect better specifics as we get closer.
As mentioned above, it will remain on the mild side which may
eventually bring the potential for some hydrologic issues with
expected snowmelt and rainfall amounts. That said, it's way too
early to deal with details. Putting this into perspective, the New
Years holiday timeframe will feel like a different season as
compared to the Christmas holiday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Moderate to heavy lake snows will continue east of both lakes
through tonight. Bands will oscillate in strength and location during
this time. However, winds will be much weaker than they have been,
with blowing and drifting snow less of an issue.
The band is across KBUF at 11Z and will briefly lower vsby to
1/4SM before it lifts north of KBUF around mid-morning. The
band will meander back south across KBUF this evening, bringing
another round of light to moderate snow and vsby of around
1/2SM.
The band off Lake Ontario will remain across or near the KART
terminal through Tuesday morning. The band will likely bring a
period of heavy snow and 1/4SM visibility at times today. The
band should briefly move north of the airport late this
afternoon, before sliding southward across it again late this
evening.
Otherwise...all other terminals will see a mix of MVFR to VFR
across the region today and tonight.
Outlook...
Tuesday...Localized IFR in lake effect snow east/northeast of the
lakes at KBUF/KIAG/KART. Otherwise mainly VFR.
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
There will be an extended period of moderate west to southwest winds
will continue to bring Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario through the middle of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding next weekend, with any flooding
likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt
will start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather
will continue through at least the weekend with highs in the lower
50s at most locations. There is high confidence in this, however
snow melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a system will bring generally light
rainfall to the region next weekend, with rainfall amounts in the
quarter to half inch range. This would push some of the Buffalo
Creeks and Black River to action stage, but it should take around an
inch of rain from this system before flooding becomes a
concern. There's a small risk this will happen, but in general
the flood risk is low but non-zero.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ010-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for
         LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 261000                                              2022360 1000
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
500 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow will continue east of the lakes through Tuesday,
then this storm will finally end by midweek. Before it ends, it will
drop another one to two feet of snow east of Lake Ontario, with
lesser amounts off Lake Erie. After this, there will be a
significant warming trend late this week which will last through the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE LAKES...
This storm will continue to evolve into a more 'typical' lake effect
snow event. Bands will oscillate in location and intensity as a
shortwave passes through, but lake snows will continue to some
extent through Tuesday.
Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow off Lake Erie,
where warnings were set to expire. Meanwhile, will keep Winter Storm
Warnings in place off Lake Ontario where there's still a bit more
wind which is causing significant blowing and drifting snow.
Off Lake Erie...
A moderately strong band of snow continues northeast of Lake Erie,
across the Buffalo Southtowns. This band will weaken as it lifts
northward across the Buffalo Metro area this morning. It still will
produce an additional 3 to 6 inches as it moves northward across
Erie County.
The band will weaken further as it settles across Niagara County
this afternoon before it drops back southward across the Buffalo
metro area tonight. The band should move back across the Buffalo
Southtowns late tonight before lifting back north Tuesday morning
and dissipating Tuesday afternoon. This will result in another 3 to
6 inches. In total, this will bring another 6 to 12 inches of fluffy
lake snow to the Buffalo metro area, however this will occur during
a 36 hour period. Winds will not be nearly as strong, so blowing and
drifting snow will be much less of an issue. The snow will mainly
impact Erie county, with bands not extending too far off the lake.
Also, snowfall rates will generally be more manageable, around an
inch per hour.
Off Lake Ontario...
A well defined plume of moderate to heavy snow remains in place over
c central Jefferson, northern Lewis, and far northern Oswego counties
early this morning. The band will remain nearly stationary into this
morning, producing very heavy snowfall rates of 3"/hr. The band will
weaken some as it drifts north across Jefferson County this morning,
with only light disorganized snows expected this afternoon.
The approach of a trough and associated deeper moisture, improved
convergence, and synoptic support will allow the band to intensify
again over northern Jefferson County this evening. It will meander
across northern Jefferson and far northern Lewis counties for much
of tonight and Tuesday before weakening late in the day Tuesday.
This will result in an additional 1-2 feet of snow in most
persistent bands which will be across Jefferson and far northern
Lewis counties.
Outside of the localized lake snows, the weather will be cold but
otherwise uneventful during the period. Some light snow showers are
possible tonight with the passage of the shortwave trough.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Elongated surface high pressure will reside along the Atlantic Coast
Tuesday night into Wednesday, while a weak clipper system quickly
moves east from the upper Great Lakes to southern Quebec Tuesday
night. An associated warm front will slowly move northeastward
through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. It will remain cold
enough for some lingering SW flow lake effect off Lake Ontario to
continue through the first half of Tuesday night, before strong warm
advection raises 850 temps enough to finally shut down the lake
effect machine off Lake Ontario later Tuesday night. That said,
associated weak mid level shortwave will just graze the northern
half of NYS. This feature combined with strong warm advection will
continue the chances for a bit more in the way of light synoptic
snow showers across areas north of I-90 for the second half of
Tuesday night. Total snow accumulations Tuesday night will be minor,
ranging from an additional inch or two across the North Country, to
no more than a coating or so for areas from the Thruway corridor to
the south shore of Lake Ontario. Dry weather expected south of the
Thruway.
Warm front will continue to slowly advance northeastward Wednesday
with a few more light snow showers possible across the North Country
Wednesday morning, with drier and warmer weather expected Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night as said warm front finally moves
northeast of the region, allowing progressively warmer air to work
its' way into western and northcentral NY. This will be reflected in
our temperatures as lows in the teens and 20s Tuesday night,
increase to the low and mid 30s (mid and upper 20s North Country)
Wednesday night. Daytime highs on Wednesday will be some 10 degrees
higher than the previous day, with highs ranging through the 30s,
and even a few 40 degree readings possible across portions of the
Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This period will feature a pronounced warming trend with a ridge
along the eastern seaboard/western Atlantic and a trough over the
central CONUS leading to deep layer south-southwesterly flow over
the region.
One wave of low pressure will move from the central Plains towards
the upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario during the first
half of the period. Deep southwesterly flow straight out of the
GOMEX will provide sufficient moisture return, however with the mid
and upper level ridge residing just to our east shunting the better
forcing off to our west/northwest, expect a good deal of dry time
with just the possibility for a few scattered light rain showers
(yes...RAIN showers) from time to time for our Thursday and Friday.
Of note will be the progressively warmer air moving into the region
with daytime highs mainly in the 40s (upper 30s Tug Hill/western
Dacks) on Thursday, further rising well into the mid and upper 40s
Friday, with low to mid 50s across the lake plains. This will be
some 15-20 degrees above average by the end of the work week.
Very mild conditions continue into next weekend. Meanwhile, the next
more significant wave takes shape over the southern Plains Friday
and Friday night and lifts into the Great Lakes over the weekend.
This wave of low pressure will bring a better surge of moisture and
will track closer to the local area as ridging presses further east
into the Atlantic. This will bring better precipitation chances,
with the best potential for rain appearing to be later Saturday into
Sunday. Models have the typical differences in track/timing of the
low almost a week out, so expect better specifics as we get closer.
As mentioned above, it will remain on the mild side which may
eventually bring the potential for some hydrologic issues with
expected snowmelt and rainfall amounts. That said, it's way too
early to deal with details. Putting this into perspective, the New
Years holiday timeframe will feel like a different season as
compared to the Christmas holiday.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Moderate to heavy lake snows will continue east of both lakes
through tonight. Bands will oscillate in strength and location during
this time. However, winds will be much weaker than they have been,
with blowing and drifting snow less of an issue.
The band will meander very close to KBUF through 10Z, before finally
lifting north across the airport this morning. This will lower vsby
to IFR or lower for a few hours it moves north of the airport. The
band will meander back south across KBUF this evening, bringing
another round of light to moderate snow.
The band off Lake Ontario will also move back north across KART this
morning, but the band is more intense and will likely bring a period
of heavy snow and 1/4SM visibility at times today. The band should
briefly move north of the airport late this afternoon, before
sliding southward across it again late this evening.
Otherwise...all other terminals will see a mix of MVFR to VFR
across the region today and tonight.
Outlook...
Tuesday...Localized IFR in lake effect snow east/northeast of the
lakes at KBUF/KIAG/KART. Otherwise mainly VFR.
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
There will be an extended period of moderate west to southwest winds
will continue to bring Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario through the middle of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding next weekend, with any flooding
likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt
will start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather
will continue through at least the weekend with highs in the lower
50s at most locations. There is high confidence in this, however
snow melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a system will bring generally light
rainfall to the region next weekend, with rainfall amounts in the
quarter to half inch range. This would push some of the Buffalo
Creeks and Black River to action stage, but it should take around an
inch of rain from this system before flooding becomes a
concern. There's a small risk this will happen, but in general
the flood risk is low but non-zero.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ006.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ010-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for
         LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 260956                                              2022360 0957
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
456 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow will continue east of the lakes through Tuesday,
then this storm will finally end by midweek. Before it ends, it will
drop another one to two feet of snow east of Lake Ontario, with
lesser amounts off Lake Erie. After this, there will be a
significant warming trend late this week which will last through the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE LAKES...
This storm will continue to evolve into a more 'typical' lake effect
snow event. Bands will oscillate in location and intensity as a
shortwave passes through, but lake snows will continue to some
extent through Tuesday.
Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow off Lake Erie,
where warnings were set to expire. Meanwhile, will keep Winter Storm
Warnings in place off Lake Ontario where there's still a bit more
wind which is causing significant blowing and drifting snow.
Off Lake Erie...
A moderately strong band of snow continues northeast of Lake Erie,
across the Buffalo Southtowns. This band will weaken as it lifts
northward across the Buffalo Metro area this morning. It still will
produce an additional 3 to 6 inches as it moves northward across
Erie County.
The band will weaken further as it settles across Niagara County
this afternoon before it drops back southward across the Buffalo
metro area tonight. The band should move back across the Buffalo
Southtowns late tonight before lifting back north Tuesday morning
and dissipating Tuesday afternoon. This will result in another 3 to
6 inches. In total, this will bring another 6 to 12 inches of fluffy
lake snow to the Buffalo metro area, however this will occur during
a 36 hour period. Winds will not be nearly as strong, so blowing and
drifting snow will be much less of an issue. The snow will mainly
impact Erie county, with bands not extending too far off the lake.
Also, snowfall rates will generally be more manageable, around an
inch per hour.
Off Lake Ontario...
A well defined plume of moderate to heavy snow remains in place over
c central Jefferson, northern Lewis, and far northern Oswego counties
early this morning. The band will remain nearly stationary into this
morning, producing very heavy snowfall rates of 3"/hr. The band will
weaken some as it drifts north across Jefferson County this morning,
with only light disorganized snows expected this afternoon.
The approach of a trough and associated deeper moisture, improved
convergence, and synoptic support will allow the band to intensify
again over northern Jefferson County this evening. It will meander
across northern Jefferson and far northern Lewis counties for much
of tonight and Tuesday before weakening late in the day Tuesday.
This will result in an additional 1-2 feet of snow in most
persistent bands which will be across Jefferson and far northern
Lewis counties.
Outside of the localized lake snows, the weather will be cold but
otherwise uneventful during the period. Some light snow showers are
possible tonight with the passage of the shortwave trough.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Elongated surface high pressure will reside along the Atlantic Coast
Tuesday night into Wednesday, while a weak clipper system quickly
moves east from the upper Great Lakes to southern Quebec Tuesday
night. An associated warm front will slowly move northeastward
through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. It will remain cold
enough for some lingering SW flow lake effect off Lake Ontario to
continue through the first half of Tuesday night, before strong warm
advection raises 850 temps enough to finally shut down the lake
effect machine off Lake Ontario later Tuesday night. That said,
associated weak mid level shortwave will just graze the northern
half of NYS. This feature combined with strong warm advection will
continue the chances for a bit more in the way of light synoptic
snow showers across areas north of I-90 for the second half of
Tuesday night. Total snow accumulations Tuesday night will be minor,
ranging from an additional inch or two across the North Country, to
no more than a coating or so for areas from the Thruway corridor to
the south shore of Lake Ontario. Dry weather expected south of the
Thruway.
Warm front will continue to slowly advance northeastward Wednesday
with a few more light snow showers possible across the North Country
Wednesday morning, with drier and warmer weather expected Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night as said warm front finally moves
northeast of the region, allowing progressively warmer air to work
its' way into western and northcentral NY. This will be reflected in
our temperatures as lows in the teens and 20s Tuesday night,
increase to the low and mid 30s (mid and upper 20s North Country)
Wednesday night. Daytime highs on Wednesday will be some 10 degrees
higher than the previous day, with highs ranging through the 30s,
and even a few 40 degree readings possible across portions of the
Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This period will feature a pronounced warming trend with a
ridge along the eastern seaboard/western Atlantic and a trough
over the central CONUS leading to deep layer south-southwesterly
flow over the region.
One wave of low pressure will move from the central Plains towards
the upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario during the first
half of the period. Deep southwesterly flow straight out of the
GOMEX will provide sufficient moisture return, however with the mid
and upper level ridge residing just to our east shunting the better
forcing off to our west/northwest, expect a good deal of dry time
with just the possibility for a few scattered light rain showers
(yes...RAIN showers) from time to time for our Thursday and Friday.
Of note will be the progressively warmer air moving into the region
with daytime highs mainly in the 40s (upper 30s Tug Hill/western
Dacks) on Thursday, further rising well into the mid and upper 40s
Friday, with low to mid 50s across the lake plains. This will be
some 15-20 degrees above average by the end of the work week.
Very mild conditions continue into next weekend. Meanwhile, the next
more significant wave takes shape over the southern Plains Friday
and Friday night and lifts into the Great Lakes over the weekend.
This wave of low pressure will bring a better surge of moisture and
will track closer to the local area as ridging presses further east
into the Atlantic. This will bring better precipitation chances,
with the best potential for rain appearing to be later Saturday into
Sunday. Models have the typical differences in track/timing of the
low almost a week out, so expect better specifics as we get closer.
As mentioned above, it will remain on the mild side which may
eventually bring the potential for some hydrologic issues with
expected snowmelt and rainfall amounts. That said, it's way too
early to deal with details. Putting this into perspective, the New
Years holiday timeframe will feel like a different season as
compared to the Christmas holiday.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Moderate to heavy lake snows will continue east of both lakes
through tonight. Bands will oscillate in strength and location during
this time. However, winds will be much weaker than they have been,
with blowing and drifting snow less of an issue.
The band will meander very close to KBUF through 10Z, before finally
lifting north across the airport this morning. This will lower vsby
to IFR or lower for a few hours it moves north of the airport. The
band will meander back south across KBUF this evening, bringing
another round of light to moderate snow.
The band off Lake Ontario will also move back north across KART this
morning, but the band is more intense and will likely bring a period
of heavy snow and 1/4SM visibility at times today. The band should
briefly move north of the airport late this afternoon, before
sliding southward across it again late this evening.
Otherwise...all other terminals will see a mix of MVFR to VFR
across the region today and tonight.
Outlook...
Tuesday...Localized IFR in lake effect snow east/northeast of the
lakes at KBUF/KIAG/KART. Otherwise mainly VFR.
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
There will be an extended period of moderate west to southwest winds
will continue to bring Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario through the middle of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding next weekend, with any flooding
likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt
will start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather
will continue through at least the weekend with highs in the lower
50s at most locations. There is high confidence in this, however
snow melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a system will bring generally light
rainfall to the region next weekend, with rainfall amounts in the
quarter to half inch range. This would push some of the Buffalo
Creeks and Black River to action stage, but it should take around an
inch of rain from this system before flooding becomes a
concern. There's a small risk this will happen, but in general
the flood risk is low but non-zero.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ006.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ010-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for
         LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 260846                                              2022360 0846
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
346 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow will continue east of the lakes through Tuesday,
then this storm will finally end by midweek. Before it ends, it will
drop another one to two feet of snow east of Lake Ontario, with
lesser amounts off Lake Erie. After this, there will be a
significant warming trend late this week which will last through the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE LAKES...
This storm will continue to evolve into a more 'typical' lake effect
snow event. Bands will oscillate in location and intensity as a
shortwave passes through, but lake snows will continue to some
extent through Tuesday.
Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow off Lake Erie,
where warnings were set to expire. Meanwhile, will keep Winter Storm
Warnings in place off Lake Ontario where there's still a bit more
wind which is causing significant blowing and drifting snow.
Off Lake Erie...
A moderately strong band of snow continues northeast of Lake Erie,
across the Buffalo Southtowns. This band will weaken as it lifts
northward across the Buffalo Metro area this morning. It still will
produce an additional 3 to 6 inches as it moves northward across
Erie County.
The band will weaken further as it settles across Niagara County
this afternoon before it drops back southward across the Buffalo
metro area tonight. The band should move back across the Buffalo
Southtowns late tonight before lifting back north Tuesday morning
and dissipating Tuesday afternoon. This will result in another 3 to
6 inches. In total, this will bring another 6 to 12 inches of fluffy
lake snow to the Buffalo metro area, however this will occur during
a 36 hour period. Winds will not be nearly as strong, so blowing and
drifting snow will be much less of an issue. The snow will mainly
impact Erie county, with bands not extending too far off the lake.
Also, snowfall rates will generally be more manageable, around an
inch per hour.
Off Lake Ontario...
A well defined plume of moderate to heavy snow remains in place over
c central Jefferson, northern Lewis, and far northern Oswego counties
early this morning. The band will remain nearly stationary into this
morning, producing very heavy snowfall rates of 3"/hr. The band will
weaken some as it drifts north across Jefferson County this morning,
with only light disorganized snows expected this afternoon.
The approach of a trough and associated deeper moisture, improved
convergence, and synoptic support will allow the band to intensify
again over northern Jefferson County this evening. It will meander
across northern Jefferson and far northern Lewis counties for much
of tonight and Tuesday before weakening late in the day Tuesday.
This will result in an additional 1-2 feet of snow in most
persistent bands which will be across Jefferson and far northern
Lewis counties.
Outside of the localized lake snows, the weather will be cold but
otherwise uneventful during the period. Some light snow showers are
possible tonight with the passage of the shortwave trough.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak clipper looks to move across the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Ongoing southwest flow lake effect off Lake Ontario will
be weakening Tuesday night with little in the way of additional
accumulation expected as temperatures warm aloft and ridging starts
to work in, with a period of dry weather Wednesday night. Arctic
airmass starts to retreat Wednesday into Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This period will feature a ridge along the eastern seaboard and
a trough over the central CONUS leading to deep layer south-
southwesterly flow over the region. One wave of low pressure
will move from the Plains towards the Upper Midwest early in the
period. Sufficient moisture return for some rain showers is
expected, though the better forcing stays off to our
west/northwest, this should keep rainfall amounts fairly light.
Next more significant wave takes shape over the southern Plains
Friday and Friday night and lifts into the Great Lakes over the
weekend. This wave of low pressure will bring a better surge of
moisture and will track closer to the local area, meaning it will
bring greater rain chances. The main potential for rain appears to
be later Saturday into Sunday. Models have the typical differences
in track/timing of the low for 6-7 days out so expect better
specifics as we get closer but it'll be a mild system, but may .
still have hydrologic impacts with expected snowmelt and rainfall
amounts, but too early to deal with specifics.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Moderate to heavy lake snows will continue east of both lakes
through tonight. Bands will oscillate in strength and location during
this time. However, winds will be much weaker than they have been,
with blowing and drifting snow less of an issue.
The band will meander very close to KBUF through 10Z, before finally
lifting north across the airport this morning. This will lower vsby
to IFR or lower for a few hours it moves north of the airport. The
band will meander back south across KBUF this evening, bringing
another round of light to moderate snow.
The band off Lake Ontario will also move back north across KART this
morning, but the band is more intense and will likely bring a period
of heavy snow and 1/4SM visibility at times today. The band should
briefly move north of the airport late this afternoon, before
sliding southward across it again late this evening.
Otherwise...all other terminals will see a mix of MVFR to VFR
across the region today and tonight.
Outlook...
Tuesday...Localized IFR in lake effect snow east/northeast of the
lakes at KBUF/KIAG/KART. Otherwise mainly VFR.
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
There will be an extended period of moderate west to southwest winds
will continue to bring Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario through the middle of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding next weekend, with any flooding
likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt
will start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather
will continue through at least the weekend with highs in the lower
50s at most locations. There is high confidence in this, however
snow melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a system will bring generally light
rainfall to the region next weekend, with rainfall amounts in the
quarter to half inch range. This would push some of the Buffalo
Creeks and Black River to action stage, but it should take around an
inch of rain from this system before flooding becomes a
concern. There's a small risk this will happen, but in general
the flood risk is low but non-zero.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ006.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ010-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for
         LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 260548                                              2022360 0549
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1248 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy lake effect effect snow will continue east of Lake Ontario
through Tuesday with several feet of additional accumulation in the
most intense bands. Lake effect snow will continue to drop locally
heavy snow east of Lake Erie overnight over the Buffalo
Southtowns before the band weakens rapidly and moves north
across Buffalo Monday morning. One last period of lake effect
snow will develop Tuesday, then this storm will finally end by
midweek with a significant warming trend late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE LAKES...
Off Lake Erie...
A moderately strong band of snow continues northeast of the lake,
across the Buffalo Southtowns. It's pretty much out of
Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Wyoming counties so will let the
Winter Storm Warning expire for these areas.
This band of snow will remain nearly in place through the early
morning hours with minor north/south oscillations. The band
will also weaken. Late tonight and Monday morning the weakening
band will move north across the Buffalo Metro area, but it will
be in a much weakened state with only minor impacts expected.
The weak lake snow will continue through Monday and Monday evening,
then intensify again Monday night and Tuesday morning over the
Buffalo Northtowns. The band will drift south to the Buffalo
Southtowns by early Tuesday, and continue through the morning before
gradually weakening. The lake effect snow will completely end by
late Tuesday afternoon or evening.
Off Lake Ontario...
As of 1230 AM...A well defined plume of moderate to heavy snow
remains in place over Central Jefferson, northern Lewis, and far
northern Oswego counties. This band will remain nearly
stationary overnight and into Monday morning. This band should
intensify further with 3+"/hr snowfall rates in the center of
the band. Monday morning the band will weaken some as it drifts
north across Jefferson County.
The band may weaken to scattered light snow showers briefly
Monday afternoon, then the approach of the trough and associated
deeper moisture, improved convergence, and synoptic support
will allow the band to intensify again over northern Jefferson
County Monday evening, where it will remain much of the night
before drifting south and east across Jefferson and northern
Lewis counties Tuesday morning. The band will the weaken in the
afternoon.
Additional accumulations in the most persistent bands will be 2-3
feet, with a small area of 3+ feet possible in southern Jefferson
County and the northern Tug Hill.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak clipper looks to move across the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Ongoing southwest flow lake effect off Lake Ontario will
be weakening Tuesday night with little in the way of additional
accumulation expected as temperatures warm aloft and ridging starts
to work in, with a period of dry weather Wednesday night. Arctic
airmass starts to retreat Wednesday into Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This period will feature a ridge along the eastern seaboard and
a trough over the central CONUS leading to deep layer south-
southwesterly flow over the region. One wave of low pressure
will move from the Plains towards the Upper Midwest early in the
period. Sufficient moisture return for some rain showers is
expected, though the better forcing stays off to our
west/northwest, this should keep rainfall amounts fairly light.
Next more significant wave takes shape over the southern Plains
Friday and Friday night and lifts into the Great Lakes over the
weekend. This wave of low pressure will bring a better surge of
moisture and will track closer to the local area, meaning it will
bring greater rain chances. The main potential for rain appears to
be later Saturday into Sunday. Models have the typical differences
in track/timing of the low for 6-7 days out so expect better
specifics as we get closer but it'll be a mild system, but may .
still have hydrologic impacts with expected snowmelt and rainfall
amounts, but too early to deal with specifics.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Moderate to heavy lake snows will continue east of both Lakes
overnight.
KBUF has improved to VFR with the lake band to the south of the
airport, but the band will lift back across the terminal early
this morning, lowering vsby to IFR lower for a few hours before
it moves north of the airport. The band will meander back south
across KBUF late today and into this evening.
KART is a different story...the lake band will support mainly
IFR conditions with near or zero visibility at times. The band
may briefly oscillate south of the terminal through around 12Z
this morning.
Otherwise...all other terminals will see a mix of MVFR to VFR
across the region overnight and Monday.
Outlook...
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds have come down below gales on Lake Ontario. An extended period
of moderate west to southwest winds will continue to bring Small
Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tonight
through the middle of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding next weekend, with any flooding
likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt
will start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather
will continue through at least the weekend with highs in the lower
50s at most locations. There is high confidence in this, however
snow melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a system will bring generally light
rainfall to the region next weekend, with rainfall amounts in the
quarter to half inch range. This would push some of the Buffalo
Creeks and Black River to action stage, but it should take around an
inch of rain from this system before flooding becomes a
concern. There's a small risk this will happen, but in general
the flood risk is low but non-zero.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ006.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     NYZ010-011-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 260308                                              2022360 0308
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1008 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy lake effect effect snow will continue east of Lake Ontario
through Tuesday with several feet of additional accumulation in the
most intense bands. Lake effect snow will continue to drop locally
heavy snow east of Lake Erie through tonight over the Buffalo
Southtowns before the band weakens rapidly and moves north across
Buffalo Monday morning. One last period of lake effect snow will
develop Tuesday, then this storm will finally end by midweek with a
significant warming trend late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE LAKES...
Off Lake Erie...
A moderately strong band of snow continues northeast of the lake,
from the southwest corner of Erie County into the Buffalo
Southtowns. This band of snow will remain nearly in place through
much of tonight with minor north/south oscillations. The band will
also weaken. Late tonight and Monday morning the weakening band will
move north across the Buffalo Metro area, but it will be in a much
weakened state with only minor impacts expected.
The weak lake snow will continue through Monday and Monday evening,
then intensify again Monday night and Tuesday morning over the
Buffalo Northtowns. The band will drift south to the Buffalo
Southtowns by early Tuesday, and continue through the morning before
gradually weakening. The lake effect snow will completely end by
late Tuesday afternoon or evening.
Total additional accumulations will still reach 1-2 feet across
southwest Erie County and the Buffalo Southtowns from a combination
of events tonight through Tuesday. The City of Buffalo will see 6-
12" in several different batches, greatest in South Buffalo and
lowest in North Buffalo.
Off Lake Ontario...
As of 10 PM...A well defined plume of moderate to heavy snow remains
in place over Central Jefferson and northern Lewis counties. This
band will drift very slowly south into southern Jefferson and
northern/western Lewis County overnight and likely clip far northern
Oswego County as well. This band should intensify further with
3+"/hr snowfall rates in the center of the band.
This band will remain in place through early Monday morning, and
then drift north across Jefferson County and weaken mid to late
morning Monday. The band may weaken to scattered light snow showers
briefly Monday afternoon, then the approach of the trough and
associated deeper moisture, improved convergence, and synoptic
support will allow the band to intensify again over northern
Jefferson County Monday evening, where it will remain much of the
night before drifting south and east across Jefferson and northern
Lewis counties Tuesday morning. The band will the weaken in the
afternoon.
Additional accumulations in the most persistent bands will be 2-3
feet, with a small area of 3+ feet possible in southern Jefferson
County and the northern Tug Hill.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak clipper looks to move across the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Ongoing southwest flow lake effect off Lake Ontario will
be weakening Tuesday night with little in the way of additional
accumulation expected as temperatures warm aloft and ridging starts
to work in, with a period of dry weather Wednesday night. Arctic
airmass starts to retreat Wednesday into Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This period will feature a ridge along the eastern seaboard and
a trough over the central CONUS leading to deep layer south-
southwesterly flow over the region. One wave of low pressure
will move from the Plains towards the Upper Midwest early in the
period. Sufficient moisture return for some rain showers is
expected, though the better forcing stays off to our
west/northwest, this should keep rainfall amounts fairly light.
Next more significant wave takes shape over the southern Plains
Friday and Friday night and lifts into the Great Lakes over the
weekend. This wave of low pressure will bring a better surge of
moisture and will track closer to the local area, meaning it will
bring greater rain chances. The main potential for rain appears to
be later Saturday into Sunday. Models have the typical differences
in track/timing of the low for 6-7 days out so expect better
specifics as we get closer but it'll be a mild system, but may .
still have hydrologic impacts with expected snowmelt and rainfall
amounts, but too early to deal with specifics.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Heavy lake snows will continue est of both Lakes overnight. Terminal
wise...KBUF has improved to VFR with the lake band to the south of
the airport. KART is a different story...the lake band will support
mainly IFR conditions with near or zero visibility. Both these lake
bands will oscillate a bit but should remain fairly stationary E to
NE of the Lakes. Otherwise...all other terminals will see a mix of
MVFR to VFR across the region.
Both bands will weaken somewhat on Monday while pushing back to the
north through both Buffalo and Watertown. Generally IFR vsbys can be
expected under the band as it makes its way back to the north.
Elsewhere...mainly VFR weather can be anticipated.
Outlook...
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds have come down below gales on Lake Ontario. An extended period
of moderate west to southwest winds will continue to bring Small
Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tonight
through the middle of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding next weekend, with any flooding
likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt
will start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather
will continue through at least the weekend with highs in the lower
50s at most locations. There is high confidence in this, however
snow melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a system will bring generally light
rainfall to the region next weekend, with rainfall amounts in the
quarter to half inch range. This would push some of the Buffalo
Creeks and Black River to action stage, but it should take around an
inch of rain from this sytem before flooding becomes a concern.
There's a small risk this will happen, but in general the flood risk
is low but non-zero.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ006.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ010-011-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...AR/Hitchcock/RSH
MARINE...Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 260001                                              2022360 0001
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
701 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy lake effect effect snow will continue east of Lake Ontario
tonight through Tuesday with several feet of additional accumulation
in the most intense bands. Lake effect snow will continue to drop
locally heavy snow east of Lake Erie through tonight over the
Buffalo Southtowns before the band weakens rapidly and moves north
across Buffalo Monday morning. One last period of lake effect snow
will develop Tuesday, then this storm will finally end by midweek
with a significant warming trend late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE LAKES...
The intense low which brought blizzard conditions the past few days
is weakening and moving slowly east across northern Quebec. This
will maintain a moist cyclonic flow of cold air over the eastern
Great Lakes and support lake effect snow through Tuesday. A
shortwave and weak secondary cold front will cross the eastern
Great Lakes late Monday night and Tuesday, allowing for a brief
intensification of lake effect snow.
Winds will remain strong enough through tonight to produce blowing
and drifting snow, but nothing like the past few days. Most of the
blowing snow will end by Monday morning.
Off Lake Erie...
A moderately strong band of snow continues this evening northeast of
the lake, from the southwest corner of Erie County into the Buffalo
Southtowns. This band of snow will remain nearly in place through
the first half of tonight with minor north/south oscillations. The
band will also weaken through the evening hours. Late tonight and
Monday morning the weakening band will move north across the Buffalo
Metro area, but it will be in a much weakened state with only minor
impacts expected.
The weak lake snow will continue through Monday and Monday evening,
then intensify again Monday night and Tuesday morning over the
Buffalo Northtowns. The band will drift south to the Buffalo
Southtowns by early Tuesday, and continue through the morning before
gradually weakening. The lake effect snow will completely end by
late Tuesday afternoon or evening.
Total additional accumulations will still reach 1-2 feet across
southwest Erie County and the Buffalo Southtowns from a combination
of events tonight through Tuesday. The City of Buffalo will see 6-
12" in several different batches, greatest in South Buffalo and
lowest in North Buffalo.
Off Lake Ontario...
A strong band of snow remains in place over Central Jefferson and
northern Lewis counties this evening. This band will drift very
slowly south into southern Jefferson and northern/western Lewis
County overnight and likely clip far northern Oswego County as well.
This band should intensify further with 3+"/hr snowfall rates in the
center of the band.
This band will remain in place through early Monday morning, and
then drift north across Jefferson County and weaken mid to late
morning Monday. The band may weaken to scattered light snow showers
briefly Monday afternoon, then the approach of the trough and
associated deeper moisture, improved convergence, and synoptic
support will allow the band to intensify again over northern
Jefferson County Monday evening, where it will remain much of the
night before drifting south and east across Jefferson and northern
Lewis counties Tuesday morning. The band will the weaken in the
afternoon.
Additional accumulations in the most persistent bands will be 2-3
feet, with a small area of 3+ feet possible in southern Jefferson
County and the northern Tug Hill.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak clipper looks to move across the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Ongoing southwest flow lake effect off Lake Ontario will
be weakening Tuesday night with little in the way of additional
accumulation expected as temperatures warm aloft and ridging starts
to work in, with a period of dry weather Wednesday night. Arctic
airmass starts to retreat Wednesday into Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This period will feature a ridge along the eastern seaboard and
a trough over the central CONUS leading to deep layer south-
southwesterly flow over the region. One wave of low pressure
will move from the Plains towards the Upper Midwest early in the
period. Sufficient moisture return for some rain showers is
expected, though the better forcing stays off to our
west/northwest, this should keep rainfall amounts fairly light.
Next more significant wave takes shape over the southern Plains
Friday and Friday night and lifts into the Great Lakes over the
weekend. This wave of low pressure will bring a better surge of
moisture and will track closer to the local area, meaning it will
bring greater rain chances. The main potential for rain appears to
be later Saturday into Sunday. Models have the typical differences
in track/timing of the low for 6-7 days out so expect better
specifics as we get closer but it'll be a mild system, but may .
still have hydrologic impacts with expected snowmelt and rainfall
amounts, but too early to deal with specifics.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Heavy lake snows will continue ENE of both Lakes tonight. Terminal
wise...KBUF has improved to VFR with the lake band to the south of
the airport. However...gusty winds will still bring lower VSBYS at
times in blowing snow. KART is an entirely different story...the
lake band will bring LIFR conditions with near or zero visibility.
Both these lake bands will oscillate a bit but should remain fairly
stationary E to NE of the Lakes. Otherwise...all other terminals
will see a mix of MVFR to VFR across the region.
Both bands will weaken somewhat on Monday while pushing back to the
north through both Buffalo and Watertown. Generally IFR vsbys can be
expected under the band as it makes its way back to the north.
Elsewhere...mainly VFR weather can be anticipated.
Outlook...
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds have come down below gales on Lake Ontario. An extended period
of moderate west to southwest winds will continue to bring Small
Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tonight
through the middle of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding next weekend, with any flooding
likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt
will start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather
will continue through at least the weekend with highs in the lower
50s at most locations. There is high confidence in this, however
snow melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a system will bring generally light
rainfall to the region next weekend, with rainfall amounts in the
quarter to half inch range. This would push some of the Buffalo
Creeks and Black River to action stage, but it should take around an
inch of rain from this sytem before flooding becomes a concern.
There's a small risk this will happen, but in general the flood risk
is low but non-zero.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ006.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ010-011-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...AR/Hitchcock/RSH
MARINE...Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
WXTLIST: done
WXTLIST APR=AFD WST=KBUF DAY=22361 TIM=00:00:59 23:59:59 NUM=12
FXUS61 KBUF 272335                                              2022361 2335
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
635 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
The extremely impactful lake snows have ended off of Lake Erie
and are near an end off Lake Ontario. A marked pattern change
will follow these snows and result in a significant day to day
warming trend through the remainder of the week. In fact, high
temperatures will reach into the 50s for most areas Friday and
Saturday. The mercury should then generally remain above normal
through the first week of the new year.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Lake snows have really fallen apart in the last hour off of
Lake Erie and are continuing to shift northward east of Lake
Ontario. Flow will continue to turn more southerly through the
evening hours with shear below the inversion heights increasing
even east of Lake Ontario. This will allow for lake snow
activity to continue to dwindle until it finally dies a
dithering death.
Warm advection will start in earnest across the area overnight
as isentropic ascent focuses warm advection lift generally north
of the area across southeastern Ontario overnight. Some of this
will cross Lake Ontario and the north country overnight yielding
some chance of light snow associated with it. Any accumulation
with this will be exceedingly minimal.
An amplifying ridge will progress across the Lower Great Lakes on
Wednesday...while strong sfc high pressure centered near the
Southeast coast will help to circulate milder air into our region
from the Ohio valley. H85 temps forecast to climb to an average of
5c will help our max temps to climb into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
The benign weather under the passing ridge will persist through
Wednesday night...with fair dry weather expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Generally quiet weather for the first half of the short term period,
with continued warming to around 20 degrees above normal by Friday.
Warming temperatures will result in melting of snow from this past
weekends snow event.
An area of high pressure off the Atlantic coast will continue a
southerly flow over the region. This will cause temperatures to warm
well above normal into the mid 40s to near 50 for Thursday and into
the upper 40s to mid 50s for Friday. As an area of low pressure
tracks across Ontario Province, Thursday night into Friday. A weak
warm front associated with the system will track north across the
area Thursday night, and may cause a few showers for the North
Country.
The trailing cold front from the Ontario system will slowly track
toward WNY causing increased chances for showers on Friday afternoon
into the evening. The best chance for showers will be across far WNY
and over the lakes.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The front approaching from the west will cross the area increasing
the chance for showers from west to east. Model discrepancy still
among guidance for the weekend for speed of frontal passage and if a
secondary wave/low will track northeast along the front, causing
more steady and widespread rainfall for the forecast area.
A narrow ridge and area of high pressure will move across the Great
Lakes and to the forecast area for the start of next week, providing
dry weather on Monday. Another cold front approaches the region for
Tuesday with widespread precipitation expected.
Temperatures during the long term will be a bit cooler behind the
passing cold front, with highs in the low to mid 40s for Saturday
through Monday. Temperatures for Tuesday will briefly warm up for
Tuesday in the warm sector of the approaching low, and ahead of the
cold front to the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lake effect snow has generally weakened to simple flurries over
KBUF and even KART as of 00z. This will yield widespread MVFR
conditions over all the sites overnight as a weak system
transits southern Ontario. Some light snow will be possible
around KART overnight with this, however certainty of visibility
restrictions is not very high. Stronger southerly winds arrive
on Wednesday and VFR conditions will spread over all sites
through the afternoon.
Outlook...
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...Areas of IFR/MFR possible in stratus and fog.
Friday and Saturday...Areas of MVFR in stratus and fog. A chance of
showers.
Sunday...MVFR conditions in showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds continue to diminish on the waters, enough so that all of
the small craft headlines have been dropped.
SSW winds pick up a bit tonight and Wednesday, which will be
marginal but may require small craft headlines for eastern portions
of the Lake Erie and Ontario waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding during the upcoming weekend, with
any flooding likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt will
start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather will
continue through the weekend and into next week with highs in the
lower 50s at most locations. There is high confidence in this,
however snow melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a couple weak systems will bring
generally light rainfall to the region during the weekend, with
rainfall amounts generally around a half inch. This is likely to
push many of the Buffalo area Creeks and the Black River to action
stage, but it should take around an inch of rain from this system
before flooding becomes a concern. There's a small risk this will
happen, but in general the flood risk is low but non- zero.
Outside of creek flooding, there could be issues with flooded
basements in urban areas as the extensive snow pack gradually melts
this weekend and into next week. Typically, this would not prompt
a flood warning, but this still could be an impact.
One other thing to note, is that there are some ice jams frozen in
place on some creeks. For example, the gauge at Ebenezer on Cazenovia
Creek is reading erroneously high due to an ice jam, and there's
likely a freeze up ice jam on Sandy Creek. Ice thickness is marginal
to support ice jams, but these will have to be monitored as the
warmer weather moves in.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ007-008.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...Fries/RSH
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Fries/RSH
MARINE...Apffel/Fries
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 272103                                              2022361 2103
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
403 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
The extremely impactful lake snows of the past several days will
continue to wind down today and this evening...although several more
inches can be anticipated near the Tug Hill. A marked pattern change
will follow these snows and result in a significant day to day
warming trend through the remainder of the week. In fact, high
temperatures will reach into the 50s for most areas Friday and
Saturday. The mercury should then generally remain above normal
through the first week of the new year.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
While accumulating lake snows will persist east of both lakes
through the afternoon (esp off lk Ontario)...the lake effect will
continue to weaken as the deep cold air of the past several days
will start to lose its grip on our region. This will bring an end to
the lake effect and set the stage for a considerable moderation in
temperature that carry us through the first half of the new year.
In terms of the lake effect...a cap at 5kft and a moderately sheared
260 flow over Lake Erie is really doing a good job at keeping the
residual lake snows to a minimum early this afternoon. Most areas
south of Buffalo will pick up a half to one additional inch of
fluffy snow by mid afternoon...then as ridging starts to build east
from the plains...the continually weakening lake snows will push
north one last time across the BUF metro area this afternoon before
dissipating to flurries over Niagara county late this afternoon and
evening.
Meanwhile...a well organized plume of moderately heavy snow over
southern Jefferson county and Lewis county will slowly lift north
and weaken during the course of the afternoon. The snows will pass
across the Watertown metro area in the process...but in a much
weakened state. Additional snowfall from this band will generally
range from 2 to 5 inches...most of which will fall by early
afternoon in areas south of Watertown.
Elsewhere today...an increasingly shallow cyclonic will support a
wealth of clouds early but some breaks of sun will be possible over
the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region late.
Leftover nuisance light snow showers and flurries north of Buffalo
and Watertown this evening will taper off and end as flurries as the
cap will drop even lower from 5kft. Otherwise...well established
warm advection over the region will promote a fair amount of cloud
cover. There may even be some synoptically driven light snow near
and east of the lake. The aforementioned warm advection will be
strong enough to encourage a non-diurnal temp trend...with most
areas experiencing their low temps before midnight.
An amplifying ridge will progress across the Lower Great Lakes on
Wednesday...while strong sfc high pressure centered near the
Southeast coast will help to circulate milder air into our region
from the Ohio valley. H85 temps forecast to climb to an average of
5c will help our max temps to climb into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
The benign weather under the passing ridge will persist through
Wednesday night...with fair dry weather expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Generally quiet weather for the first half of the short term period,
with continued warming to around 20 degrees above normal by Friday.
Warming temperatures will result in melting of snow from this past
weekends snow event.
An area of high pressure off the Atlantic coast will continue a
southerly flow over the region. This will cause temperatures to warm
well above normal into the mid 40s to near 50 for Thursday and into
the upper 40s to mid 50s for Friday. As an area of low pressure
tracks across Ontario Province, Thursday night into Friday. A weak
warm front associated with the system will track north across the
area Thursday night, and may cause a few showers for the North
Country.
The trailing cold front from the Ontario system will slowly track
toward WNY causing increased chances for showers on Friday afternoon
into the evening. The best chance for showers will be across far WNY
and over the lakes.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The front approaching from the west will cross the area increasing
the chance for showers from west to east. Model discrepancy still
among guidance for the weekend for speed of frontal passage and if a
secondary wave/low will track northeast along the front, causing
more steady and widespread rainfall for the forecast area.
A narrow ridge and area of high pressure will move across the Great
Lakes and to the forecast area for the start of next week, providing
dry weather on Monday. Another cold front approaches the region for
Tuesday with widespread precipitation expected.
Temperatures during the long term will be a bit cooler behind the
passing cold front, with highs in the low to mid 40s for Saturday
through Monday. Temperatures for Tuesday will briefly warm up for
Tuesday in the warm sector of the approaching low, and ahead of the
cold front to the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lake effect snow will continue to be the main concern for aviation.
Outside of lake effect bands there will be a mix of VFR/MVFR flight
conditions with cigs 2-4k ft and scattered snow showers or flurries.
KBUF...Lake effect band just to the south of the airport will lift
northward, bringing some light snow to KBUF during the mid and
late afternoon. The lake snows will be notably less impressive,
so expect vsby to mainly remain 1-3SM as the band moves through.
KART...Heavy lake effect snow just south of the terminal will weaken
this afternoon while it will push north. Vsby should average between
1/2SM and 2SM as the band moves through, then will improve as the
band lifts further to the north this evening.
Outlook...
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...Areas of IFR/MFR possible in stratus and fog.
Friday and Saturday...Areas of MVFR in stratus and fog. A chance of
showers.
Sunday...MVFR conditions in showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds continue to diminish on the waters, enough so that most of the
small craft headlines have been dropped early. The exception is
eastern Lake Ontario, where a moderate southwesterly flow will
continue to meet criteria through today.
SSW winds pick up a bit tonight and Wednesday, which will be
marginal but may require small craft headlines for eastern portions
of the Lake Erie and Ontario waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding during the upcoming weekend, with
any flooding likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt will
start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather will
continue through the weekend and into next week with highs in the
lower 50s at most locations. There is high confidence in this,
however snow melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a couple weak systems will bring
generally light rainfall to the region during the weekend, with
rainfall amounts generally around a half inch. This is likely to
push many of the Buffalo area Creeks and the Black River to action
stage, but it should take around an inch of rain from this system
before flooding becomes a concern. There's a small risk this will
happen, but in general the flood risk is low but non- zero.
Outside of creek flooding, there could be issues with flooded
basements in urban areas as the extensive snow pack gradually melts
this weekend and into next week. Typically, this would not prompt
a flood warning, but this still could be an impact.
One other thing to note, is that there are some ice jams frozen in
place on some creeks. For example, the gauge at Ebenezer on Cazenovia
Creek is reading erroneously high due to an ice jam, and there's
likely a freeze up ice jam on Sandy Creek. Ice thickness is marginal
to support ice jams, but these will have to be monitored as the
warmer weather moves in.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Apffel/RSH
MARINE...Apffel
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 271811                                              2022361 1812
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
111 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
The extremely impactful lake snows of the past several days will
continue to wind down today and this evening...although several more
inches can be anticipated near the Tug Hill. A marked pattern change
will follow these snows and result in a significant day to day
warming trend through the remainder of the week. In fact, high
temperatures will reach into the 50s for most areas Friday and
Saturday. The mercury should then generally remain above normal
through the first week of the new year.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
While accumulating lake snows will persist east of both lakes
through the afternoon (esp off lk Ontario)...the lake effect will
continue to weaken as the deep cold air of the past several days
will start to lose its grip on our region. This will bring an end to
the lake effect and set the stage for a considerable moderation in
temperature that carry us through the first half of the new year.
In terms of the lake effect...a cap at 5kft and a moderately sheared
260 flow over Lake Erie is really doing a good job at keeping the
residual lake snows to a minimum early this afternoon. Most areas
south of Buffalo will pick up a half to one additional inch of
fluffy snow by mid afternoon...then as ridging starts to build east
from the plains...the continually weakening lake snows will push
north one last time across the BUF metro area this afternoon before
dissipating to flurries over Niagara county late this afternoon and
evening.
Meanwhile...a well organized plume of moderately heavy snow over
southern Jefferson county and Lewis county will slowly lift north
and weaken during the course of the afternoon. The snows will pass
across the Watertown metro area in the process...but in a much
weakened state. Additional snowfall from this band will generally
range from 2 to 5 inches...most of which will fall by early
afternoon in areas south of Watertown.
Elsewhere today...an increasingly shallow cyclonic will support a
wealth of clouds early but some breaks of sun will be possible over
the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region late.
Leftover nuisance light snow showers and flurries north of Buffalo
and Watertown this evening will taper off and end as flurries as the
cap will drop even lower from 5kft. Otherwise...well established
warm advection over the region will promote a fair amount of cloud
cover. There may even be some synoptically driven light snow near
and east of the lake. The aforementioned warm advection will be
strong enough to encourage a non-diurnal temp trend...with most
areas experiencing their low temps before midnight.
An amplifying ridge will progress across the Lower Great Lakes on
Wednesday...while strong sfc high pressure centered near the
Southeast coast will help to circulate milder air into our region
from the Ohio valley. H85 temps forecast to climb to an average of
5c will help our max temps to climb into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
The benign weather under the passing ridge will persist through
Wednesday night...with fair dry weather expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday and Thursday night the warmup continues and snowmelt will
become more efficient as dewpoints later Thursday through Thursday
night remain well above freezing and southwest winds remain up. More
clouds than Wednesday are expected, both from higher clouds streaming
across and possible lower clouds due to the increased low-level
moisture from the snowmelt. May see patchy fog due to the snowmelt
as dewpoints climb toward 40. Highs on Thursday will reach into the
40s all areas while lows on Thursday night stay above freezing all
areas, with low to mid 40s across western NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
What a difference one week will make as we prepare to ring in 2023.
Mild conditions will continue through the weekend with favorable
weather to melt snow as a deep southwesterly flow remains entrenched
across the region between trough over the central CONUS and ridge
along the eastern seaboard. On Friday, sfc low 995-1000mb will be
centered over northern Ontario to the north of Lake Superior. Cold
front tied to the low will be tracking across the Great Lakes but as
the main upper level trough supporting the low lifts into northern
Quebec, sfc front diminishes rather abruptly and we are left with a
weak trough sliding across the lower Great Lakes awash in warmer air
in low-levels. Some rain is expected to form ahead of the decaying
cold front across the lower Great Lakes Friday into Friday night,
but overall amounts look quite light with mainly less than 0.25
inch. Higher-end amounts could reach 0.5 inch.
Greater chances for rain occur later Saturday into Saturday night as
a sfc wave lifts along the decaying trough in response to another
shortwave trough emerging from the southern plains. Some jet energy
will be involved as well. Overall this time has a better potential
for widespread rain of 0.25 to 0.50 inch with higher-end forecasts
eclipsing 0.75 inch. Again, all rain as there is widespread warm air
with no cold air to be found. Rain chances taper from west to east
on Sunday with dry conditions found for the first Monday of 2023.
Temperatures through the weekend will remain well above normal with
highs in the 50s Friday and Saturday and mid to upper 40s on Sunday.
It cools slightly for Monday, but still at least mostly in the lower
40s. Nighttime lows Friday night and Saturday night will be in the
40s with some mid to upper 30s east of Lake Ontario and over the
Southern Tier. Lows a bit cooler on Sunday night but still mainly
above freezing with exception of eastern Lake Ontario region.
The mild conditions along with equally high dewpoints will result in
a very good setup for efficiently melting snow. Any rain added to
these conditions could result in hydrologic issues. See the
Hydrology section for more details.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lake effect snow will continue to be the main concern for aviation.
Outside of lake effect bands there will be a mix of VFR/MVFR flight
conditions with cigs 2-4k ft and scattered snow showers or flurries.
KBUF...Lake effect band just to the south of the airport will lift
northward, bringing some light snow to KBUF during the mid and
late afternoon. The lake snows will be notably less impressive,
so expect vsby to mainly remain 1-3SM as the band moves through.
KART...Heavy lake effect snow just south of the terminal will weaken
this afternoon while it will push north. Vsby should average between
1/2SM and 2SM as the band moves through, then will improve as the
band lifts further to the north this evening.
Outlook...
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...Areas of IFR/MFR possible in stratus and fog.
Friday and Saturday...Areas of MVFR in stratus and fog. A chance of
showers.
Sunday...MVFR conditions in showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds continue to diminish on the waters, enough so that most of the
small craft headlines have been dropped early. The exception is
eastern Lake Ontario, where a moderate southwesterly flow will
continue to meet criteria through today.
SSW winds pick up a bit tonight and Wednesday, which will be
marginal but may require small craft headlines for eastern portions
of the Lake Erie and Ontario waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding during the upcoming weekend, with
any flooding likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt will
start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather will
continue through the weekend and into next week with highs in the
lower 50s at most locations. There is high confidence in this,
however snow melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a couple weak systems will bring
generally light rainfall to the region during the weekend, with
rainfall amounts generally around a half inch. This is likely to
push many of the Buffalo area Creeks and the Black River to action
stage, but it should take around an inch of rain from this system
before flooding becomes a concern. There's a small risk this will
happen, but in general the flood risk is low but non- zero.
Outside of creek flooding, there could be issues with flooded
basements in urban areas as the extensive snow pack gradually melts
this weekend and into next week. Typically, this would not prompt
a flood warning, but this still could be an impact.
One other thing to note, is that there are some ice jams frozen in
place on some creeks. For example, the gauge at Ebenezer on Cazenovia
Creek is reading erroneously high due to an ice jam, and there's
likely a freeze up ice jam on Sandy Creek. Ice thickness is marginal
to support ice jams, but these will have to be monitored as the
warmer weather moves in.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...Apffel/RSH
MARINE...Apffel
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 271446                                              2022361 1446
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
946 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
The extremely impactful lake snows of the past several days will
continue to wind down today and this evening...although several more
inches can be anticipated near the Tug Hill. A marked pattern change
will follow these snows and result in a significant day to day
warming trend through the remainder of the week. In fact, high
temperatures will reach into the 50s for most areas Friday and
Saturday. The mercury should then generally remain above normal
through the first week of the new year.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
While accumulating lake snows will persist east of both lakes through
midday (esp off lk Ontario)...the lake effect will continue to
weaken as the deep cold air of the past several days will start to
lose its grip on our region. This will bring an end to the lake
effect and set the stage for a considerable moderation in temperature
that carry us through the first half of the new year.
In terms of the lake effect...a cap at 5kft and a moderately sheared
260 flow over Lake Erie is really doing a good job at keeping the
residual lake snows to a minimum this morning. Most areas south of
Buffalo will pick up a half to one additional inch of fluffy snow by
early afternoon...then as ridging starts to build east from the
plains...the continually weakening lake snows will push north one
last time across the BUF metro area in the afternoon before
dissipating to flurries over Niagara county late this afternoon and
evening.
Meanwhile...a well organized plume of moderately heavy snow over
southern Jefferson county and Lewis county at mid morning will
generally remain in place through lunchtime. Like the activity off
Lk Erie...the lake snows over the northern part of the Tug will then
lift north and weaken during the course of the afternoon. The snows
will pass across the Watertown metro area in the process...but in a
much weakened state. Additional snowfall from this band will
generally range from 4 to 7 inches...most of which will fall by
early afternoon in areas south of Watertown.
Elsewhere today...an increasingly shallow cyclonic will support a
wealth of clouds early but some breaks of sun will be possible over
the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region late.
Leftover nuisance light snow showers and flurries north of Buffalo
and Watertown this evening will taper off and end as flurries as the
cap will drop even lower from 5kft. Otherwise...well established
warm advection over the region will promote a fair amount of cloud
cover. There may even be some synoptically driven light snow near
and east of the lake. The aforementioned warm advection will be
strong enough to encourage a non-diurnal temp trend...with most
areas experiencing their low temps before midnight.
An amplifying ridge will progress across the Lower Great Lakes on
Wednesday...while strong sfc high pressure centered near the
Southeast coast will help to circulate milder air into our region
from the Ohio valley. H85 temps forecast to climb to an average of
5c will help our max temps to climb into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
The benign weather under the passing ridge will persist through
Wednesday night...with fair dry weather expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday and Thursday night the warmup continues and snowmelt will
become more efficient as dewpoints later Thursday through Thursday
night remain well above freezing and southwest winds remain up. More
clouds than Wednesday are expected, both from higher clouds streaming
across and possible lower clouds due to the increased low-level
moisture from the snowmelt. May see patchy fog due to the snowmelt
as dewpoints climb toward 40. Highs on Thursday will reach into the
40s all areas while lows on Thursday night stay above freezing all
areas, with low to mid 40s across western NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
What a difference one week will make as we prepare to ring in 2023.
Mild conditions will continue through the weekend with favorable
weather to melt snow as a deep southwesterly flow remains entrenched
across the region between trough over the central CONUS and ridge
along the eastern seaboard. On Friday, sfc low 995-1000mb will be
centered over northern Ontario to the north of Lake Superior. Cold
front tied to the low will be tracking across the Great Lakes but as
the main upper level trough supporting the low lifts into northern
Quebec, sfc front diminishes rather abruptly and we are left with a
weak trough sliding across the lower Great Lakes awash in warmer air
in low-levels. Some rain is expected to form ahead of the decaying
cold front across the lower Great Lakes Friday into Friday night,
but overall amounts look quite light with mainly less than 0.25
inch. Higher-end amounts could reach 0.5 inch.
Greater chances for rain occur later Saturday into Saturday night as
a sfc wave lifts along the decaying trough in response to another
shortwave trough emerging from the southern plains. Some jet energy
will be involved as well. Overall this time has a better potential
for widespread rain of 0.25 to 0.50 inch with higher-end forecasts
eclipsing 0.75 inch. Again, all rain as there is widespread warm air
with no cold air to be found. Rain chances taper from west to east
on Sunday with dry conditions found for the first Monday of 2023.
Temperatures through the weekend will remain well above normal with
highs in the 50s Friday and Saturday and mid to upper 40s on Sunday.
It cools slightly for Monday, but still at least mostly in the lower
40s. Nighttime lows Friday night and Saturday night will be in the
40s with some mid to upper 30s east of Lake Ontario and over the
Southern Tier. Lows a bit cooler on Sunday night but still mainly
above freezing with exception of eastern Lake Ontario region.
The mild conditions along with equally high dewpoints will result in
a very good setup for efficiently melting snow. Any rain added to
these conditions could result in hydrologic issues. See the
Hydrology section for more details.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect snow will continue to be the main concern for aviation.
Outside of lake effect bands there will be a mix of VFR/MVFR flight
conditions with cigs 2-4k ft and scattered snow showers or flurries.
KBUF...Lake effect band just to the south of the airport will lift
northward today, bringing some snow to KBUF late this morning
through mid-afternoon. The lake snows will be notably less
impressive, so expect vsby to mainly remain 1-3SM as the band moves
through.
KART...Heavy lake effect snow just south of the terminal will
weaken this morning before lifting north this afternoon. Vsby should
average between 1/2SM and 2SM through late afternoon,then will
improve as the band lifts further to the north late this afternoon.
Outlook...
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...Areas of IFR/MFR possible in stratus and fog.
Friday and Saturday...Areas of IFR/MVFR in stratus and fog. A
chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds continue to diminish on the waters, enough so that most of the
small craft headlines have been dropped early. The exception is
eastern Lake Ontario, where a moderate southwesterly flow will
continue to meet criteria through today.
SSW winds pick up a bit tonight and Wednesday, which will be
marginal but may require small craft headlines for eastern portions
of the Lake Erie and Ontario waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding during the upcoming weekend, with
any flooding likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt will
start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather will
continue through the weekend and into next week with highs in the
lower 50s at most locations. There is high confidence in this,
however snow melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a couple weak systems will bring
generally light rainfall to the region during the weekend, with
rainfall amounts generally around a half inch. This is likely to
push many of the Buffalo area Creeks and the Black River to action
stage, but it should take around an inch of rain from this system
before flooding becomes a concern. There's a small risk this will
happen, but in general the flood risk is low but non- zero.
Outside of creek flooding, there could be issues with flooded
basements in urban areas as the extensive snow pack gradually melts
this weekend and into next week. Typically, this would not prompt
a flood warning, but this still could be an impact.
One other thing to note, is that there are some ice jams frozen in
place on some creeks. For example, the gauge at Ebenezer on Cazenovia
Creek is reading erroneously high due to an ice jam, and there's
likely a freeze up ice jam on Sandy Creek. Ice thickness is marginal
to support ice jams, but these will have to be monitored as the
warmer weather moves in.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ007-
     008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ010-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...Apffel/RSH
MARINE...Apffel
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 271345                                              2022361 1345
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
845 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
The extremely impactful lake snows of the past several days will
continue to wind down today and this evening...although several more
inches can be anticipated near the Tug Hill. A marked pattern change
will follow these snows and result in a significant day to day trend
through the remainder of the week. In fact, high temperatures will
reach into the 50s for most areas Friday and Saturday. The mercury
should then generally remain above normal through the first week of
the new year.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
While accumulating lake snows will persist east of both lakes
through midday (esp off lk Ontario)...the lake effect will continue
to weaken as the deep cold air of the past several days will start
to lose its grip on our region. This will bring an end to the lake
effect and set the stage for a considerable moderation in
temperature that carry us through the first half of the new year.
In terms of the lake effect...a cap at 5kft and a moderately sheared
260 flow over Lake Erie is really doing a good job at keeping the
residual lake snows to a minimum this morning. Most areas south of
Buffalo will pick up a half to one additional inch of fluffy snow by
early afternoon...then as ridging starts to build east from the
plains...the continually weakening lake snows will push north one
last time across the BUF metro area in the afternoon before
dissipating to flurries over Niagara county late this afternoon and
evening.
Meanwhile...a well organized plume of moderately heavy snow over
southern Jefferson county and Lewis county at mid morning will
generally remain in place through lunchtime. Like the activity off
Lk Erie...the lake snows over the northern part of the Tug will then
lift north and weaken during the course of the afternoon. The snows
will pass across the Watertown metro area in the process...but in a
much weakened state. Additional snowfall from this band will
generally range from 4 to 7 inches...most of which will fall by
early afternoon in areas south of Watertown.
Elsewhere today...an increasingly shallow cyclonic will support a
wealth of clouds early but some breaks of sun will be possible over
the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region late.
Leftover nuisance light snow showers and flurries north of Buffalo
and Watertown this evening will taper off and end as flurries as the
cap will drop even lower from 5kft. Otherwise...well established
warm advection over the region will promote a fair amount of cloud
cover. There may even be some synoptically driven light snow near
and east of the lake. The aforementioned warm advection will be
strong enough to encourage a non-diurnal temp trend...with most
areas experiencing their low temps before midnight.
An amplifying ridge will progress across the Lower Great Lakes on
Wednesday...while strong sfc high pressure centered near the
Southeast coast will help to circulate milder air into our region
from the Ohio valley. H85 temps forecast to climb to an average of
5c will help our max temps to climb into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
The benign weather under the passing ridge will persist through
Wednesday night...with fair dry weather expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday and Thursday night the warmup continues and snowmelt will
become more efficient as dewpoints later Thursday through Thursday
night remain well above freezing and southwest winds remain up. More
clouds than Wednesday are expected, both from higher clouds streaming
across and possible lower clouds due to the increased low-level
moisture from the snowmelt. May see patchy fog due to the snowmelt
as dewpoints climb toward 40. Highs on Thursday will reach into the
40s all areas while lows on Thursday night stay above freezing all
areas, with low to mid 40s across western NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
What a difference one week will make as we prepare to ring in 2023.
Mild conditions will continue through the weekend with favorable
weather to melt snow as a deep southwesterly flow remains entrenched
across the region between trough over the central CONUS and ridge
along the eastern seaboard. On Friday, sfc low 995-1000mb will be
centered over northern Ontario to the north of Lake Superior. Cold
front tied to the low will be tracking across the Great Lakes but as
the main upper level trough supporting the low lifts into northern
Quebec, sfc front diminishes rather abruptly and we are left with a
weak trough sliding across the lower Great Lakes awash in warmer air
in low-levels. Some rain is expected to form ahead of the decaying
cold front across the lower Great Lakes Friday into Friday night,
but overall amounts look quite light with mainly less than 0.25
inch. Higher-end amounts could reach 0.5 inch.
Greater chances for rain occur later Saturday into Saturday night as
a sfc wave lifts along the decaying trough in response to another
shortwave trough emerging from the southern plains. Some jet energy
will be involved as well. Overall this time has a better potential
for widespread rain of 0.25 to 0.50 inch with higher-end forecasts
eclipsing 0.75 inch. Again, all rain as there is widespread warm air
with no cold air to be found. Rain chances taper from west to east
on Sunday with dry conditions found for the first Monday of 2023.
Temperatures through the weekend will remain well above normal with
highs in the 50s Friday and Saturday and mid to upper 40s on Sunday.
It cools slightly for Monday, but still at least mostly in the lower
40s. Nighttime lows Friday night and Saturday night will be in the
40s with some mid to upper 30s east of Lake Ontario and over the
Southern Tier. Lows a bit cooler on Sunday night but still mainly
above freezing with exception of eastern Lake Ontario region.
The mild conditions along with equally high dewpoints will result in
a very good setup for efficiently melting snow. Any rain added to
these conditions could result in hydrologic issues. See the
Hydrology section for more details.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect snow will continue to be the main concern for aviation.
Outside of lake effect bands there will be a mix of VFR/MVFR flight
conditions with cigs 2-4k ft and scattered snow showers or flurries.
KBUF...Lake effect band just to the south of the airport will lift
northward today, bringing some snow to KBUF late this morning
through mid-afternoon. The lake snows will be notably less
impressive, so expect vsby to mainly remain 1-3SM as the band moves
through.
KART...Heavy lake effect snow just south of the terminal will
weaken this morning before lifting north this afternoon. Vsby should
average between 1/2SM and 2SM through late afternoon,then will
improve as the band lifts further to the north late this afternoon.
Outlook...
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...Areas of IFR/MFR possible in stratus and fog.
Friday and Saturday...Areas of IFR/MVFR in stratus and fog. A
chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds continue to diminish on the waters, enough so that most of the
small craft headlines have been dropped early. The exception is
eastern Lake Ontario, where a moderate southwesterly flow will
continue to meet criteria through today.
SSW winds pick up a bit tonight and Wednesday, which will be
marginal but may require small craft headlines for eastern portions
of the Lake Erie and Ontario waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding during the upcoming weekend, with
any flooding likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt will
start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather will
continue through the weekend and into next week with highs in the
lower 50s at most locations. There is high confidence in this,
however snow melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a couple weak systems will bring
generally light rainfall to the region during the weekend, with
rainfall amounts generally around a half inch. This is likely to
push many of the Buffalo area Creeks and the Black River to action
stage, but it should take around an inch of rain from this system
before flooding becomes a concern. There's a small risk this will
happen, but in general the flood risk is low but non- zero.
Outside of creek flooding, there could be issues with flooded
basements in urban areas as the extensive snow pack gradually melts
this weekend and into next week. Typically, this would not prompt
a flood warning, but this still could be an impact.
One other thing to note, is that there are some ice jams frozen in
place on some creeks. For example, the gauge at Ebenezer on Cazenovia
Creek is reading erroneously high due to an ice jam, and there's
likely a freeze up ice jam on Sandy Creek. Ice thickness is marginal
to support ice jams, but these will have to be monitored as the
warmer weather moves in.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ007-
     008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ010-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...Apffel/RSH
MARINE...Apffel
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 271138                                              2022361 1139
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
638 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering cold air will continue to support accumulating lake snows
east and northeast of both lakes today, then a marked pattern change
will result in significant day to day warming through the remainder
of the week. In fact, high temperatures will reach into the 50s for
most areas Friday through New Years Day.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lake effect snow will continue today, but it will finally taper off
tonight bringing an end to this once in a generation storm.
850mb temperatures will be around -14c, but it will be the
moisture from a shortwave passing by to our north early this
morning that results in the heaviest lake effect snows. Bands
will lift northward today and eventually dissipate late today
as winds shift to the SSW in the wake of the shortwave.
Off Lake Erie...
At 6 a.m. the band has weakened considerably with the loss of
the deeper moisture from the shortwave. The band may redevelop
some as it lifts across Buffalo metro, with an additional 1 to
3 inches of fluffy snow possible before dissipating as it exits
across Niagara County late this afternoon. A Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect through 1 p.m. this afternoon,
however this may be expired early if the band does not
redevelop this morning.
Off Lake Ontario...
At 6 a.m. the band remains strong with snowfall rates of 2
in/hr across southern Jefferson County. Similar to Lake Erie,
the band will weaken considerably this morning, with steadier
snows across higher terrain due to orographic enhancement. The
band will lift back northward across Watertown this afternoon,
finally exiting into Canada early this evening. With less
moisture and lower inversion heights the band will be weaker as
it lifts northward, with most of the snow accumulation through
this morning. Expecting an additional 3 to 5 inches today across
Jefferson and far northern portions of Lewis County. A Winter
Storm Warning remains in place through 1 p.m.
Tonight, mid-level warm air advection will lower inversion heights
with the last of the lake snows across Jefferson County ending. This
combined with a passing shortwave may bring some light synoptic snow
to the North Country late tonight, but compared to recent snows any
accumulation will be negligible (an inch or less). Elsewhere, expect
quiet weather with gradually rising temperatures overnight with a
southerly flow developing.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc warm front that starts day nearby continues to lift across
Quebec and New England. One last shortwave trough and area of DPVA
riding along the warm front may spur on some widespread, albeit,
light snow mainly across the eastern Lake Ontario region toward the
St. Lawrence River. Otherwise, as the warm front lifts farther north
and high pressure centers off the east coast, a southwest return
flow will result in temperatures rising above freezing in the mid
30s at the coldest and the lower 40s at the warmest on the lake
plains. Snow melt will begin, though it will be slower as dewpoints
still stay below freezing for another day. Wednesday night the warm
front will be well to the north and the warming trend will be well
underway. Nighttime lows remain above freezing over far western
NY including the Buffalo Metro but will drop below freezing
elsewhere, especially east of Lake Ontario.
Thursday and Thursday night the warmup continues and snowmelt will
become more efficient as dewpoints later Thursday through Thursday
night remain well above freezing and southwest winds remain up. More
clouds than Wednesday are expected, both from higher clouds
streaming across and possible lower clouds due to the increased low-
level moisture from the snowmelt. May see patchy fog due to the
snowmelt as dewpoints climb toward 40. Highs on Thursday will reach
into the 40s all areas while lows on Thursday night stay above
freezing all areas, with low to mid 40s across western NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
What a difference one week will make as we prepare to ring in 2023.
Mild conditions will continue through the weekend with favorable
weather to melt snow as a deep southwesterly flow remains entrenched
across the region between trough over the central CONUS and ridge
along the eastern seaboard. On Friday, sfc low 995-1000mb will be
centered over northern Ontario to the north of Lake Superior. Cold
front tied to the low will be tracking across the Great Lakes but as
the main upper level trough supporting the low lifts into northern
Quebec, sfc front diminishes rather abruptly and we are left with a
weak trough sliding across the lower Great Lakes awash in warmer air
in low-levels. Some rain is expected to form ahead of the decaying
cold front across the lower Great Lakes Friday into Friday night,
but overall amounts look quite light with mainly less than 0.25
inch. Higher-end amounts could reach 0.5 inch.
Greater chances for rain occur later Saturday into Saturday night as
a sfc wave lifts along the decaying trough in response to another
shortwave trough emerging from the southern plains. Some jet energy
will be involved as well. Overall this time has a better potential
for widespread rain of 0.25 to 0.50 inch with higher-end forecasts
eclipsing 0.75 inch. Again, all rain as there is widespread warm air
with no cold air to be found. Rain chances taper from west to east
on Sunday with dry conditions found for the first Monday of 2023.
Temperatures through the weekend will remain well above normal with
highs in the 50s Friday and Saturday and mid to upper 40s on Sunday.
It cools slightly for Monday, but still at least mostly in the lower
40s. Nighttime lows Friday night and Saturday night will be in
the 40s with some mid to upper 30s east of Lake Ontario and over
the Southern Tier. Lows a bit cooler on Sunday night but still
mainly above freezing with exception of eastern Lake Ontario
region.
The mild conditions along with equally high dewpoints will result in
a very good setup for efficiently melting snow. Any rain added to
these conditions could result in hydrologic issues. See the
Hydrology section for more details.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect snow will continue to be the main concern for
aviation. Outside of lake effect bands there will be a mix of
VFR/MVFR flight conditions with cigs 2-4k ft and scattered snow
showers or flurries.
KBUF...Lake effect band just to the south of the airport will
lift northward today, bringing some snow to KBUF late this
morning through mid-afternoon. The band is a bit weaker, so
expect vsby to mainly remain 1-3SM as the band moves through.
KART...Heavy lake effect snow just south of the terminal will
weaken this morning before lifting north this afternoon. Vsby
should average between 1/2SM and 2SM through late afternoon,
then will improve as the band lifts further to the north late
this afternoon.
Outlook...
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...Areas of IFR/MFR possible in stratus and fog.
Friday and Saturday...Areas of IFR/MVFR in stratus and fog. A
chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds continue to diminish on the waters, enough so that most of the
small craft headlines have been dropped early. The exception is
eastern Lake Ontario, where a moderate southwesterly flow will
continue to meet criteria through today.
SSW winds pick up a bit tonight and Wednesday, which will be
marginal but may require small craft headlines for eastern portions
of the Lake Erie and Ontario waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding during the upcoming weekend,
with any flooding likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt will
start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather will
continue through the weekend and into next week with highs in
the lower 50s at most locations. There is high confidence in
this, however snow melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a couple weak systems will bring
generally light rainfall to the region during the weekend, with
rainfall amounts generally around a half inch. This is likely
to push many of the Buffalo area Creeks and the Black River to
action stage, but it should take around an inch of rain from
this system before flooding becomes a concern. There's a small
risk this will happen, but in general the flood risk is low but
non- zero.
Outside of creek flooding, there could be issues with flooded
basements in urban areas as the extensive snow pack gradually
melts this weekend and into next week. Typically, this would not
prompt a flood warning, but this still could be an impact.
One other thing to note, is that there are some ice jams frozen
in place on some creeks. For example, the gauge at Ebenezer on Cazenovia
Creek is reading erroneously high due to an ice jam, and there's
likely a freeze up ice jam on Sandy Creek. Ice thickness is
marginal to support ice jams, but these will have to be
monitored as the warmer weather moves in.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ007-
     008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ010-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Apffel/RSH
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 270828                                              2022361 0828
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
328 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering cold air will continue to support accumulating lake snows
east and northeast of both lakes today, then a marked pattern change
will result in significant day to day warming through the remainder
of the week. In fact, high temperatures will reach into the 50s for
most areas Friday through New Years Day.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lake effect snow will continue today, but it will finally taper off
tonight bringing an end to this once in a generation storm.
850mb temperatures will be around -14c, but it will be the
moisture from a shortwave passing by to our north early this
morning that results in the heaviest lake effect snows. Bands
will meander slightly south through daybreak, then will lift
northward and eventually dissipate late today as winds shift to
the SSW in the wake of the shortwave.
Off Lake Erie...
At 3 a.m. the band is focused across the near Buffalo Southtowns
(i.e. West Seneca) with a weak flow not pushing snows very far
inland off of the lake. The should meander slightly southward
through daybreak, then it will weaken as it moves northward across
the rest of the Buffalo metro area today. Greatest additional
amounts in the 3 to 5 inch range will be across the Southtowns
across Angola, Hamburg, Lackawanna, and West Seneca. Adjacent to
this area including downtown Buffalo and the northtowns
expecting an additional 1 to 3 inches. The snow will be fluffy,
which will mitigate its impact somewhat. By late afternoon,
expect the band will finally dissipate for good as it exits
across Niagara County. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect through 1 p.m. this afternoon.
Off Lake Ontario...
At 3 a.m. the band has intensified due to moisture enhancement from
the passing shortwave. This will be temporary, but expecting
snowfall rates of 2 in/hr to last through about daybreak. After
this, the band will meander south with its center just south of
Watertown. The band will weaken through this morning, with steadier
snows across higher terrain due to orographic enhancement. The band
will lift back northward across Watertown this afternoon, finally
exiting into Canada early this evening. With less moisture and lower
inversion heights the band will be weaker as it lifts northward,
with most of the snow accumulation through this morning. Expecting
an additional 4 to 8 inches through early afternoon, with greatest
amounts near and just south of Watertown. Snows will also extend
into northwestern Lewis County. A Winter Storm Warning remains in
place through 1 p.m.
Tonight, mid-level warm air advection will lower inversion heights
with the last of the lake snows across Jefferson County ending. This
combined with a passing shortwave may bring some light synoptic snow
to the North Country late tonight, but compared to recent snows any
accumulation will be negligible (an inch or less). Elsewhere, expect
quiet weather with gradually rising temperatures overnight with a
southerly flow developing.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc warm front that starts day nearby continues to lift across
Quebec and New England. One last shortwave trough and area of DPVA
riding along the warm front may spur on some widespread, albeit,
light snow mainly across the eastern Lake Ontario region toward the
St. Lawrence River. Otherwise, as the warm front lifts farther north
and high pressure centers off the east coast, a southwest return
flow will result in temperatures rising above freezing in the mid
30s at the coldest and the lower 40s at the warmest on the lake
plains. Snow melt will begin, though it will be slower as dewpoints
still stay below freezing for another day. Wednesday night the warm
front will be well to the north and the warming trend will be well
underway. Nighttime lows remain above freezing over far western
NY including the Buffalo Metro but will drop below freezing
elsewhere, especially east of Lake Ontario.
Thursday and Thursday night the warmup continues and snowmelt will
become more efficient as dewpoints later Thursday through Thursday
night remain well above freezing and southwest winds remain up. More
clouds than Wednesday are expected, both from higher clouds
streaming across and possible lower clouds due to the increased low-
level moisture from the snowmelt. May see patchy fog due to the
snowmelt as dewpoints climb toward 40. Highs on Thursday will reach
into the 40s all areas while lows on Thursday night stay above
freezing all areas, with low to mid 40s across western NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
What a difference one week will make as we prepare to ring in 2023.
Mild conditions will continue through the weekend with favorable
weather to melt snow as a deep southwesterly flow remains entrenched
across the region between trough over the central CONUS and ridge
along the eastern seaboard. On Friday, sfc low 995-1000mb will be
centered over northern Ontario to the north of Lake Superior. Cold
front tied to the low will be tracking across the Great Lakes but as
the main upper level trough supporting the low lifts into northern
Quebec, sfc front diminishes rather abruptly and we are left with a
weak trough sliding across the lower Great Lakes awash in warmer air
in low-levels. Some rain is expected to form ahead of the decaying
cold front across the lower Great Lakes Friday into Friday night,
but overall amounts look quite light with mainly less than 0.25
inch. Higher-end amounts could reach 0.5 inch.
Greater chances for rain occur later Saturday into Saturday night as
a sfc wave lifts along the decaying trough in response to another
shortwave trough emerging from the southern plains. Some jet energy
will be involved as well. Overall this time has a better potential
for widespread rain of 0.25 to 0.50 inch with higher-end forecasts
eclipsing 0.75 inch. Again, all rain as there is widespread warm air
with no cold air to be found. Rain chances taper from west to east
on Sunday with dry conditions found for the first Monday of 2023.
Temperatures through the weekend will remain well above normal with
highs in the 50s Friday and Saturday and mid to upper 40s on Sunday.
It cools slightly for Monday, but still at least mostly in the lower
40s. Nighttime lows Friday night and Saturday night will be in
the 40s with some mid to upper 30s east of Lake Ontario and over
the Southern Tier. Lows a bit cooler on Sunday night but still
mainly above freezing with exception of eastern Lake Ontario
region.
The mild conditions along with equally high dewpoints will result in
a very good setup for efficiently melting snow. Any rain added to
these conditions could result in hydrologic issues. See the
Hydrology section for more details.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect snow will continue to be the main concern for
aviation. Outside of lake effect bands there will be a mix of
VFR/MVFR flight conditions with cigs 2-4k ft and scattered snow
showers or flurries.
KBUF...Lake effect band expected to settle 'just' south of the
airfield through around mid-morning. The band will then move back
across KBUF roughly from mid-morning through early afternoon. Lake
effect band will be moderate in strength, with vsby to around 1/2SM
at times, even though the prevailing vsby will be a bit higher.
KART...Heavy lake effect band will near the terminal through 00Z
Wednesday, then the band will lift north with improving
conditions. Expect poor visibility 1/4SM to 1/2SM in moderate
to heavy snow to be common, although the band is expected to take a
slight jog south this morning which may allow for a brief
improvement in conditions.
Outlook...
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...Areas of IFR/MFR possible in stratus and fog.
Friday and Saturday...Areas of IFR/MVFR in stratus and fog. A
chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds continue to diminish on the waters, enough so that most of the
small craft headlines have been dropped early. The exception is
eastern Lake Ontario, where a moderate southwesterly flow will
continue to meet criteria through today.
SSW winds pick up a bit tonight and Wednesday, which will be
marginal but may require small craft headlines for eastern portions
of the Lake Erie and Ontario waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding during the upcoming weekend,
with any flooding likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt will
start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather will
continue through the weekend and into next week with highs in
the lower 50s at most locations. There is high confidence in
this, however snow melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a couple weak systems will bring
generally light rainfall to the region during the weekend, with
rainfall amounts generally around a half inch. This is likely
to push many of the Buffalo area Creeks and the Black River to
action stage, but it should take around an inch of rain from
this system before flooding becomes a concern. There's a small
risk this will happen, but in general the flood risk is low but
non- zero.
Outside of creek flooding, there could be issues with flooded
basements in urban areas as the extensive snow pack gradually
melts this weekend and into next week. Typically, this would not
prompt a flood warning, but this still could be an impact.
One other thing to note, is that there are some ice jams frozen
in place on some creeks. For example, the gauge at Ebenezer on Cazenovia
Creek is reading erroneously high due to an ice jam, and there's
likely a freeze up ice jam on Sandy Creek. Ice thickness is
marginal to support ice jams, but these will have to be
monitored as the warmer weather moves in.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ007-
     008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ010-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Apffel/RSH
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 270609                                              2022361 0609
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
109 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering cold air will continue to support accumulating lake snows
east and northeast of both lakes overnight and Tuesday...then a
marked pattern change will result in significant day to day warming
through the remainder of the week. In fact...high temperatures for
most areas Friday through New Years Day will reach into the 50s.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL TUESDAY/...
H85 temps in the vcnty of -14c will continue to support lake
snows overnight...but the good news is that the snow will be
very fluffy in nature and should result in lower impacts. The
bands will be transitory in nature...so this should help with
mitigating further impacts as well.
After sputtering for awhile earlier this evening...lake snows
are finally starting to get a bit better organized off both
lakes. Off Lake Erie a general 230- 240 degree flow off Lake
Erie is supporting a broad area of light snow with some embedded
areas of moderate snow across Erie across Buffalo and its nearby
southtowns. Off Lake Ontario, a 220-230 degree flow continues
to generate a broad area of lake effect snow across Jefferson
county with an embedded heavier band near Watertown.
As we push through the early overnight hours...a shortwave trough
will push east and across our region. This will veer winds across
Lake Erie to 240-250 degrees...with the somewhat increased fetch
across the lake and enhancement from the passing trough continuing
to help reinvigorate the lake snows across Northern Erie county.
Given the expected very fluffy nature of the snow...this should
result in another 3-5 inches across the Buffalo Southtowns, with
less from downtown Buffalo northward to the Niagara County line.
As the steering flow continues to back to around 250-260
degrees during the wee hours of Tuesday morning...the band will
then settle across the Buffalo Southtowns. A Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect for all of Erie county through
tonight to cover this scenario.
A very similar scenario can be expected east of Lake Ontario
overnight with the lake snows initially becoming more concentrated
across Watertown and points north...then shifting south to areas
between Watertown and the northern slopes of the Tug Hill as winds
veer in the wake of the passing shortwave trough. Nighttime
accumulations there will generally range from 5 to 9 inches...with
these again being focused near/over Watertown.
On Tuesday...a large sfc high over the Southeast will encourage
winds to back more to the southwest. This will signal the start of a
healthy warm advective pattern...which will finally lend itself to
the end of the lake snows. Before that takes place though...lake
snows focused on the Buffalo Southtowns and in the near/immediately
south of Watertown in the morning will gradually weaken while
advancing back to the north as a result of the aforementioned
backing of the steering flow. Accumulations on Tuesday will range
from 1 to 3 inches near and south of Buffalo...with 4-7 inches
expected near Watertown.
A deepening southwest flow will push the last vestiges of the lake
snows well north of Buffalo and to the Thousand Islands region. A
crushingly low cap (<4kft) and marked decreases in lake driven
instability will bring an end to he lake snows overnight...but
another shortwave trough will pass north of Lake Ontario during the
wee hours of the morning...and this synoptic feature could touch off
some nuisance snow showers near and east of Lake Ontario.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures will surpass the freezing mark on Wednesday. A warm
front will move across north central NY. Snow showers will
likely skirt the Saint Lawrence Valley and northern Tug Hill
region Wednesday morning. Dry conditions are expected elsewhere.
High temperatures will reach the upper 30s to low 40s, low to
mid 30s across the Tug Hill. An upper level ridge will build
overhead Wednesday night through Thursday night. Mostly dry
weather with day to day warming through Thursday. Low
temperatures will fall to the low to mid 30s across western NY
to the upper 20s east of Lake Ontario Wednesday night. Then,
temperatures will reach the upper 40s to low 50s on Thursday.
Clouds will increase Thursday through Thursday night with lows
in the upper 30s to low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
This period will feature a pronounced warming trend with a ridge
along the eastern seaboard/western Atlantic and a trough over the
central CONUS leading to deep layer south-southwesterly flow over
the region.
Mild conditions will continue next weekend. A cold front will track
across the central Great Lakes Friday however it may dissolve into a
broad surface trough by the time it gets to the eastern Great Lakes
region. Rain showers will remain possible but it doesn't look
widespread. There will be progressively warmer air moving into the
region with daytime highs rising well into the mid and upper 50s
Friday. This will be around 20 degrees above average by the end of
the work week. The upper level ridge will move east of the region
and a trough across the Central Plains will move into the Great
Lakes region Friday night into the weekend. A surge of moisture is
expected to move northward and across the region resulting in high
confidence that widespread rain will encompass the region through at
least Saturday. Another wave of low pressure may move across the
region Sunday into Monday.
As mentioned above, it will remain on the mild side which may
eventually bring the potential for some hydrologic issues with
expected snowmelt and rainfall amounts. See the Hydrology section
below for more details. Putting this into perspective, the New Years
holiday timeframe will feel like a different season as compared to
the Christmas holiday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect snow will continue to be the main concern for
aviation. Outside of lake effect bands there will be a mix of
VFR/MVFR flight conditions with cigs 2-4k ft and scattered snow
showers or flurries.
KBUF...lake effect band across the terminal will drift south
overnight, settling just south of the airfield through around
mid-morning. The band will then move back northward during the
day Tuesday, north of KBUF late Tuesday afternoon. Lake effect
band will be moderate in strength, with vsby to around 1/2SM at
times, even though the prevailing vsby will be higher.
KART...Heavy lake effect band will near the terminal through 00Z
Wednesday, then the band will lift north with improving
conditions. Expect poor visibility 1/4SM to 1/2SM in moderate
to heavy snow to be common, although the band is expected to
take a slight jog south this mornign which may allow for a brief
improvement in conditions.
Outlook...
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
Saturday...VFR to MVFR in rain.
&&
.MARINE...
An extended period of moderate west to southwest winds will continue
to bring Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario through the middle of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding during the upcoming weekend,
with any flooding likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt will
start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather will
continue through at least the weekend with highs in the lower 50s
at most locations. There is high confidence in this, however snow
melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a system will bring generally light
rainfall to the region next weekend, with rainfall amounts in the
quarter to half inch range. This is likely to push many of the
Buffalo area Creeks and the Black River to action stage, but it
should take around an inch of rain from this system before
flooding becomes a concern. There's a small risk this will
happen, but in general the flood risk is low but non-zero.
Outside of creek flooding, there could be issues with flooded
basements in urban areas as the extensive snow pack gradually
melts this weekend and into next week. Typically, this would not
prompt a flood warning, but still could be an impact.
One other thing to note, is that there are some ice jams frozen
in place on some creeks. For example, the gauge at Ebenezer on Cazenovia
Creek is reading erroneously high due to an ice jam, and there's
likely a freeze up ice jam on Sandy Creek. These will also have
to be monitored as we head into the weekend warm-up.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ007-
     008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ010-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR/RSH
NEAR TERM...Apffel/JJR/RSH
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK/JM
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock/JJR
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 270249                                              2022361 0250
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
949 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering cold air will continue to support accumulating lake snows
east and northeast of both lakes overnight and Tuesday...then a
marked pattern change will result in significant day to day warming
through the remainder of the week. In fact...high temperatures for
most areas Friday through New Years Day will reach into the 50s.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
H85 temps in the vcnty of -14c will continue to support lake snows
through tonight...but the good news is that the snow will be very
fluffy in nature and should result in lower impacts. The bands
will be transitory in nature...so this should help with mitigating
further impacts as well.
After sputtering for awhile earlier this evening...lake snows
are finally starting to get a bit better organized off both
lakes. Off Lake Erie a general 230- 240 degree flow off Lake
Erie is supporting a broad area of light snow with some embedded
areas of moderate snow across Niagara and Northern Erie
counties...while a 220-230 degree flow off Lake Ontario
continues to generate a broad area of lake effect snow across
Jefferson county.
As we push through the early overnight hours...a shortwave trough
will push east and across our region. This will veer winds across
Lake Erie to 240-250 degrees...with the somewhat increased fetch
across the lake and enhancement from the passing trough continuing
to help reinvigorate the lake snows across Northern Erie county.
Given the expected very fluffy nature of the snow...this should
result in another 3-5 inches across the Buffalo metro area. As the
steering flow continues to back to around 250-260 degrees during the
wee hours of Tuesday morning...the band will then settle across the
Buffalo Southtowns. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for
all of Erie county through tonight to cover this scenario.
A very similar scenario can be expected east of Lake Ontario
overnight with the lake snows initially becoming more concentrated
across Watertown and points north...then shifting south to areas
between Watertown and the northern slopes of the Tug Hill as winds
veer in the wake of the passing shortwave trough. Nighttime
accumulations there will generally range from 5 to 9 inches...with
these again being focused near/over Watertown.
On Tuesday...a large sfc high over the Southeast will encourage
winds to back more to the southwest. This will signal the start of a
healthy warm advective pattern...which will finally lend itself to
the end of the lake snows. Before that takes place though...lake
snows focused on the Buffalo Southtowns and in the near/immediately
south of Watertown in the morning will gradually weaken while
advancing back to the north as a result of the aforementioned
backing of the steering flow. Accumulations on Tuesday will range
from 1 to 3 inches near and south of Buffalo...with 4-7 inches
expected near Watertown.
A deepening southwest flow will push the last vestiges of the lake
snows well north of Buffalo and to the Thousand Islands region. A
crushingly low cap (<4kft) and marked decreases in lake driven
instability will bring an end to he lake snows overnight...but
another shortwave trough will pass north of Lake Ontario during the
wee hours of the morning...and this synoptic feature could touch off
some nuisance snow showers near and east of Lake Ontario.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures will surpass the freezing mark on Wednesday. A warm
front will move across north central NY. Snow showers will likely
skirt the Saint Lawrence Valley and northern Tug Hill region
Wednesday morning. Dry conditions are expected elsewhere. High
temperatures will reach the upper 30s to low 40s, low to mid 30s
across the Tug Hill. An upper level ridge will build overhead
Wednesday night through Thursday night. Mostly dry weather with day
to day warming through Thursday. Low temperatures will fall to the
low to mid 30s across western NY to the upper 20s east of Lake
Ontario Wednesday night. Then, temperatures will reach the upper 40s
to low 50s on Thursday. Clouds will increase Thursday through
Thursday night with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
This period will feature a pronounced warming trend with a ridge
along the eastern seaboard/western Atlantic and a trough over the
central CONUS leading to deep layer south-southwesterly flow over
the region.
Mild conditions will continue next weekend. A cold front will track
across the central Great Lakes Friday however it may dissolve into a
broad surface trough by the time it gets to the eastern Great Lakes
region. Rain showers will remain possible but it doesn't look
widespread. There will be progressively warmer air moving into the
region with daytime highs rising well into the mid and upper 50s
Friday. This will be around 20 degrees above average by the end of
the work week. The upper level ridge will move east of the region
and a trough across the Central Plains will move into the Great
Lakes region Friday night into the weekend. A surge of moisture is
expected to move northward and across the region resulting in high
confidence that widespread rain will encompass the region through at
least Saturday. Another wave of low pressure may move across the
region Sunday into Monday.
As mentioned above, it will remain on the mild side which may
eventually bring the potential for some hydrologic issues with
expected snowmelt and rainfall amounts. See the Hydrology section
below for more details. Putting this into perspective, the New Years
holiday timeframe will feel like a different season as compared to
the Christmas holiday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As winds veer to the west-southwest overnight...lake snows off Lake
Erie will become a bit better organized and move back across the
KBUF terminal...while producing IFR to LIFR conditions. Meanwhile...
general IFR to LIFR weather will remain in place for KART and
vicinity as weak/diffuse lake snows there also become better
organized and push a bit southward through the night. Outside of the
lake snows...mainly dry conditions and general MVFR/VFR conditions
will prevail.
On Tuesday...the lake snows will shift back northward across the
KBUF/KART terminals while gradually weakening. Expect general IFR
conditions to prevail within these...with some improvement expected
at KBUF later in the afternoon as the lake snows push mainly north
of the terminal. Outside of the lake snows...general MVFR to VFR
ceilings will continue to prevail.
Outlook...
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
Saturday...VFR to MVFR in rain.
&&
.MARINE...
An extended period of moderate west to southwest winds will continue
to bring Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario through the middle of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding during the upcoming weekend,
with any flooding likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt will
start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather will
continue through at least the weekend with highs in the lower 50s
at most locations. There is high confidence in this, however snow
melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a system will bring generally light
rainfall to the region next weekend, with rainfall amounts in the
quarter to half inch range. This would push some of the Buffalo
Creeks and Black River to action stage, but it should take around an
inch of rain from this system before flooding becomes a concern.
There's a small risk this will happen, but in general the flood
risk is low but non-zero.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ010-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for
         LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR/RSH
NEAR TERM...JJR/RSH
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK/JM
AVIATION...JJR/RSH
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock/JJR
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
WXTLIST: done
WXTLIST APR=AFD WST=KBUF DAY=22362 TIM=00:00:59 23:59:59 NUM=12
FXUS61 KBUF 282341                                              2022362 2341
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
641 PM EST Wed Dec 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A distinct change in the overall weather pattern will now support
for a prolonged period of above normal temperatures for our region.
The mercury will climb into the 40s for most areas on Thursday with
50s anticipated over the western counties on Friday. This will
result in a significant meltdown for areas with a snowpack...but
with only minor rainfall forecast...any issues should be minimized.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An amplifying mid level ridge will pass over our forecast area
tonight while strong high pressure will be situated near the
Southeast coast. This will support a deepening southerly flow of
increasingly mild air that will keep overnight temperature falls
in check and likewise send temperatures into the mid and upper
40s on Thursday. The warm up will be accompany be fair dry
weather with many areas experiencing a little sunshine for at
least part of the day.
A weak warm front will push northwards across the Lower Great Lakes
Thursday night. This could touch off some sprinkles of very light
rain showers.
Temperatures tonight will fall back to around freezing...but will
struggle to fall any lower than the lower 40s Thursday night. This
will lead to a ripening of the snowpack for those that have received
snow the past several days...then as dew points climb above freezing
Thursday afternoon...the beginning of a subsequent meltdown.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
On Friday, a frontal boundary will stall over the western fringe of
the area. Showers will increase, especially over the western
portions of the area, as moisture increase ahead of the front from
the south. Showers, generally light, will continue to slowly expand
in coverage eastward through the day. Showers will also start a bit
earlier for the North Country as a warm front tracks north. Friday
will be around 20 degrees above normal for most locations with highs
ranging from near 50 to the low 60s.
Friday night, showers will continue to increase in coverage across
the area through the night as the frontal boundary slowly tracks
east into WNY. Showers over WNY will fill in to a steadier light
rain regime toward daybreak as a wave of low pressure tracks
northeast along the frontal boundary and out of the Ohio Valley. Low
temperatures on Friday night will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Saturday and Saturday night, as the area of low pressure continues
to track toward the forecast area from the Ohio Valley, steadier
light rain will continue to spread east. The area of low pressure
should be centered over Lake Erie by Saturday evening before
continuing to track northeast on Saturday night, reaching the St.
Lawrence Valley by Sunday morning. There is still some uncertainty
with guidance where the heavier rain is expected. Heavier rain is
expected either to the NW of the forecast area in Canada with a
stronger deformation zone, or over coastal S. New England with the
digging trough and secondary low forming. So this will need some
fine tuning as the scenario develops. Current expectation is that
rainfall shouldn't exceed a half inch for Saturday into Saturday
night. The cold front should go through late Saturday night/early
Sunday morning, but this too is also causing some timing
disagreement in the model guidance. High temperatures on Saturday
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Saturday night, low temperatures
will drop to the mid 30s to near 40, depending on the frontal
passage timing.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Sunday the axis of a mid-level trough will push across New York
State and New England...with its associated surface low tracking
from eastern New York/New England into the Canadian Maritimes.
Lingering cyclonic flow and moisture on the backside of the surface
low will keep the risk of some rain showers across the area Sunday
morning (with this greatest across the North Country)...before high
pressure and drier air noses northeastward from the Ohio Valley and
brings a drying trend during the afternoon. While conditions will
not be as mild as those of the preceding few days...temps will still
easily be above average with highs ranging through the 40s.
Sunday night and Monday the aforementioned surface ridge will build
across New York State and New England...while developing upper level
troughing over the High Plains encourages a flat zonal flow across
the central/eastern CONUS to slowly give way to building ridging
aloft. The end result of all this will be a quiet and dry period for
our region...along with continued above normal temperatures. Lows
Sunday night will range from around 30 east of Lake Ontario to the
lower to mid 30s elsewhere...with highs on Monday then ranging from
the lower 40s across the North Country to the mid and upper 40s
across far western New York.
As we push deeper into this period...the aforementioned upper level
trough will slowly make its way across the Plains States and into
the Mississippi Valley...with multiple attendant waves of low
pressure rippling northeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley Tuesday through Wednesday. A deepening south-southwesterly
flow out ahead of the first such system will advect notably warmer
air back into our region Tuesday when highs will range through the
50s...with temps then remaining rather mild right through midweek.
With such a mild airmass in place...the vast majority of any
precipitation from the passing surface waves will be in the form of
just plain rain...with the greatest potential for such currently
looking to come between Tuesday and Tuesday evening.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tonight...sfc high to our east will provide VFR conditions at all
area terminals. LLWS will be possible overnight as a +45 knot low
level jet will be found at 2K feet. Have added that to all of our
western TAF sites, KBUF, KIAG, KJHW, and KROC after 02Z. Sfc winds
will be 14 knots or less overnight.
VFR conditions will remain in place on Thursday...but the risk for
LLWS will diminish as winds should at least partially mix to the sfc
after 14z.
Outlook...
Friday and Saturday...Areas of MVFR in stratus and fog. A chance of
showers.
Sunday...MVFR conditions in showers.
Monday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh southerlies will be found throughout the Lower
Great Lakes region through Thursday. While this will push conditions
towards small craft advisory levels...the choppy conditions
associated with the SCAs should be limited to the offshore waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a minimal chance for flooding during the upcoming weekend
and early next week, but any flooding likely to be of the minor/
nuisance variety and would be confined to the immediate Buffalo
area and tributaries flowing near the Tug Hill Plateau.
Warmer weather has already started to set in, with highs in the
40s and 50s Thursday through Tuesday of next week. This will result
in a prolonged and GRADUAL snow melt. Snow water equivalent values
in the Buffalo Creeks basin average 2 to 4 inches in the hardest
hit areas with 3 to 6 inches on the Tug Hill in the Black River
Basin. These will be the areas of concern during the next week
with ensembles showing little if any risk for flooding on our other
basins.
Snowmelt alone RARELY causes river/creek flooding. There will be
two systems of note during the period...one on Saturday and one on
Tuesday. Each should bring around a half inch of rain, with the
potential for a bit more.
In the Buffalo area, snowpack is highly variable since nearly all of
the snow is from lake effect snow from the blizzard. The greatest
amounts are in the Ellicott creek basin (Williamsville forecast
point), so this is where the greatest risk for flooding will be
found. Cayuga Creek, Buffalo Creek, Cazenovia Creek, and Tonawanda
Creek (at Rapids) are forecast to likely to reach action stage,
but unlikely to reach flood stage (ensembles show less than 20
percent chance). For these creeks, any flooding would likely be
with or just following the first system on Saturday.
Outside of creek flooding, there could also be issues with ponding
water and flooded basements in Buffalo due to the extensive snow
pack which will gradually melt into next week. Typically, this
would not prompt a flood warning, but this still could be an impact.
For the Black River basin, the greatest risk for flooding will
follow the second system which will move through on Tuesday. This is
because there's a deeper snowpack in place which will not completely
melt by early next week. Ensembles show forecast points are likely
to reach at least action stage, with a chance for flooding at
Boonville, McKeever, and Watertown.
Finally, there is a limited potential for ice jams. The combination
of cold and snow resulted in a rapid slush freeze up on some creeks.
The Ebenezer gauge is erroneously high due to ice frozen in place.
The ice in place is marginally thick enough to cause ice jams, and
will likely break up with the warm weather on Friday. This will have
to be monitored as well, with a risk for a few ice jams which would
likely be relatively quick to flush out.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...Fries/RSH
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...AR/RSH
MARINE...RSH
HYDROLOGY...Apffel/RSH
FXUS61 KBUF 282305                                              2022362 2305
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
605 PM EST Wed Dec 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A distinct change in the overall weather pattern will now support
for a prolonged period of above normal temperatures for our region.
The mercury will climb into the 40s for most areas on Thursday with
50s anticipated over the western counties on Friday. This will
result in a significant meltdown for areas with a snowpack...but
with only minor rainfall forecast...any issues should be minimized.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An amplifying mid level ridge will pass over our forecast area this
tonight...while strong high pressure will be situated near the
Southeast coast. This will support a deepening southerly flow of
increasingly mild air that will send temperatures into the mid and
upper 40s on Thursday. The warm up will be accompany be fair dry
weather with many areas experiencing a little sunshine for at least
part of the day.
A weak warm front will push northwards across the Lower Great Lakes
Thursday night. This could touch off some sprinkles of very light
rain showers.
Temperatures tonight will fall back to around freezing...but will
struggle to fall any lower than the lower 40s Thursday night. This
will lead to a ripening of the snowpack for those that have received
snow the past several days...then as dew points climb above freezing
Thursday afternoon...the beginning of a subsequent meltdown.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
On Friday, a frontal boundary will stall over the western fringe of
the area. Showers will increase, especially over the western
portions of the area, as moisture increase ahead of the front from
the south. Showers, generally light, will continue to slowly expand
in coverage eastward through the day. Showers will also start a bit
earlier for the North Country as a warm front tracks north. Friday
will be around 20 degrees above normal for most locations with highs
ranging from near 50 to the low 60s.
Friday night, showers will continue to increase in coverage across
the area through the night as the frontal boundary slowly tracks
east into WNY. Showers over WNY will fill in to a steadier light
rain regime toward daybreak as a wave of low pressure tracks
northeast along the frontal boundary and out of the Ohio Valley. Low
temperatures on Friday night will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Saturday and Saturday night, as the area of low pressure continues
to track toward the forecast area from the Ohio Valley, steadier
light rain will continue to spread east. The area of low pressure
should be centered over Lake Erie by Saturday evening before
continuing to track northeast on Saturday night, reaching the St.
Lawrence Valley by Sunday morning. There is still some uncertainty
with guidance where the heavier rain is expected. Heavier rain is
expected either to the NW of the forecast area in Canada with a
stronger deformation zone, or over coastal S. New England with the
digging trough and secondary low forming. So this will need some
fine tuning as the scenario develops. Current expectation is that
rainfall shouldn't exceed a half inch for Saturday into Saturday
night. The cold front should go through late Saturday night/early
Sunday morning, but this too is also causing some timing
disagreement in the model guidance. High temperatures on Saturday
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Saturday night, low temperatures
will drop to the mid 30s to near 40, depending on the frontal
passage timing.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Sunday the axis of a mid-level trough will push across New York
State and New England...with its associated surface low tracking
from eastern New York/New England into the Canadian Maritimes.
Lingering cyclonic flow and moisture on the backside of the surface
low will keep the risk of some rain showers across the area Sunday
morning (with this greatest across the North Country)...before high
pressure and drier air noses northeastward from the Ohio Valley and
brings a drying trend during the afternoon. While conditions will
not be as mild as those of the preceding few days...temps will still
easily be above average with highs ranging through the 40s.
Sunday night and Monday the aforementioned surface ridge will build
across New York State and New England...while developing upper level
troughing over the High Plains encourages a flat zonal flow across
the central/eastern CONUS to slowly give way to building ridging
aloft. The end result of all this will be a quiet and dry period for
our region...along with continued above normal temperatures. Lows
Sunday night will range from around 30 east of Lake Ontario to the
lower to mid 30s elsewhere...with highs on Monday then ranging from
the lower 40s across the North Country to the mid and upper 40s
across far western New York.
As we push deeper into this period...the aforementioned upper level
trough will slowly make its way across the Plains States and into
the Mississippi Valley...with multiple attendant waves of low
pressure rippling northeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley Tuesday through Wednesday. A deepening south-southwesterly
flow out ahead of the first such system will advect notably warmer
air back into our region Tuesday when highs will range through the
50s...with temps then remaining rather mild right through midweek.
With such a mild airmass in place...the vast majority of any
precipitation from the passing surface waves will be in the form of
just plain rain...with the greatest potential for such currently
looking to come between Tuesday and Tuesday evening.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tonight...sfc high to our east will provide VFR conditions at all
area terminals. LLWS will be possible overnight as a +45 knot low
level jet will be found at 2K feet. Have added that to all of our
western TAF sites, KBUF, KIAG, KJHW, and KROC after 02Z. Sfc winds
will be 14 knots or less overnight.
VFR conditions will remain in place on Thursday...but the risk for
LLWS will diminish as winds should at least partially mix to the sfc
after 14z.
Outlook...
Friday and Saturday...Areas of MVFR in stratus and fog. A chance of
showers.
Sunday...MVFR conditions in showers.
Monday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh southerlies will be found throughout the Lower
Great Lakes region through Thursday. While this will push conditions
towards small craft advisory levels...the choppy conditions
associated with the SCAs should be limited to the offshore waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a minimal chance for flooding during the upcoming weekend
and early next week, but any flooding likely to be of the minor/
nuisance variety and would be confined to the immediate Buffalo
area and tributaries flowing near the Tug Hill Plateau.
Warmer weather has already started to set in, with highs in the
40s and 50s Thursday through Tuesday of next week. This will result
in a prolonged and GRADUAL snow melt. Snow water equivalent values
in the Buffalo Creeks basin average 2 to 4 inches in the hardest
hit areas with 3 to 6 inches on the Tug Hill in the Black River
Basin. These will be the areas of concern during the next week
with ensembles showing little if any risk for flooding on our other
basins.
Snowmelt alone RARELY causes river/creek flooding. There will be
two systems of note during the period...one on Saturday and one on
Tuesday. Each should bring around a half inch of rain, with the
potential for a bit more.
In the Buffalo area, snowpack is highly variable since nearly all of
the snow is from lake effect snow from the blizzard. The greatest
amounts are in the Ellicott creek basin (Williamsville forecast
point), so this is where the greatest risk for flooding will be
found. Cayuga Creek, Buffalo Creek, Cazenovia Creek, and Tonawanda
Creek (at Rapids) are forecast to likely to reach action stage,
but unlikely to reach flood stage (ensembles show less than 20
percent chance). For these creeks, any flooding would likely be
with or just following the first system on Saturday.
Outside of creek flooding, there could also be issues with ponding
water and flooded basements in Buffalo due to the extensive snow
pack which will gradually melt into next week. Typically, this
would not prompt a flood warning, but this still could be an impact.
For the Black River basin, the greatest risk for flooding will
follow the second system which will move through on Tuesday. This is
because there's a deeper snowpack in place which will not completely
melt by early next week. Ensembles show forecast points are likely
to reach at least action stage, with a chance for flooding at
Boonville, McKeever, and Watertown.
Finally, there is a limited potential for ice jams. The combination
of cold and snow resulted in a rapid slush freeze up on some creeks.
The Ebenezer gauge is erroneously high due to ice frozen in place.
The ice in place is marginally thick enough to cause ice jams, and
will likely break up with the warm weather on Friday. This will have
to be monitored as well, with a risk for a few ice jams which would
likely be relatively quick to flush out.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...AR/RSH
MARINE...RSH
HYDROLOGY...Apffel/RSH
FXUS61 KBUF 282047                                              2022362 2047
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
347 PM EST Wed Dec 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A distinct change in the overall weather pattern will now support
for a prolonged period of above normal temperatures for our region.
The mercury will climb into the 40s for most areas on Thursday with
50s anticipated over the western counties on Friday. This will
result in a significant meltdown for areas with a snowpack...but
with only minor rainfall forecast...any issues should be minimized.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An amplifying mid level ridge will pass over our forecast area this
tonight...while strong high pressure will be situated near the
Southeast coast. This will support a deepening southerly flow of
increasingly mild air that will send temperatures into the mid and
upper 40s on Thursday. The warm up will be accompany be fair dry
weather with many areas experiencing a little sunshine for at least
part of the day.
A weak warm front will push northwards across the Lower Great Lakes
Thursday night. This could touch off some sprinkles of very light
rain showers.
Temperatures tonight will fall back to around freezing...but will
struggle to fall any lower than the lower 40s Thursday night. This
will lead to a ripening of the snowpack for those that have received
snow the past several days...then as dew points climb above freezing
Thursday afternoon...the beginning of a subsequent meltdown.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
On Friday, a frontal boundary will stall over the western fringe of
the area. Showers will increase, especially over the western
portions of the area, as moisture increase ahead of the front from
the south. Showers, generally light, will continue to slowly expand
in coverage eastward through the day. Showers will also start a bit
earlier for the North Country as a warm front tracks north. Friday
will be around 20 degrees above normal for most locations with highs
ranging from near 50 to the low 60s.
Friday night, showers will continue to increase in coverage across
the area through the night as the frontal boundary slowly tracks
east into WNY. Showers over WNY will fill in to a steadier light
rain regime toward daybreak as a wave of low pressure tracks
northeast along the frontal boundary and out of the Ohio Valley. Low
temperatures on Friday night will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Saturday and Saturday night, as the area of low pressure continues
to track toward the forecast area from the Ohio Valley, steadier
light rain will continue to spread east. The area of low pressure
should be centered over Lake Erie by Saturday evening before
continuing to track northeast on Saturday night, reaching the St.
Lawrence Valley by Sunday morning. There is still some uncertainty
with guidance where the heavier rain is expected. Heavier rain is
expected either to the NW of the forecast area in Canada with a
stronger deformation zone, or over coastal S. New England with the
digging trough and secondary low forming. So this will need some
fine tuning as the scenario develops. Current expectation is that
rainfall shouldn't exceed a half inch for Saturday into Saturday
night. The cold front should go through late Saturday night/early
Sunday morning, but this too is also causing some timing
disagreement in the model guidance. High temperatures on Saturday
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Saturday night, low temperatures
will drop to the mid 30s to near 40, depending on the frontal
passage timing.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Sunday the axis of a mid-level trough will push across New York
State and New England...with its associated surface low tracking
from eastern New York/New England into the Canadian Maritimes.
Lingering cyclonic flow and moisture on the backside of the surface
low will keep the risk of some rain showers across the area Sunday
morning (with this greatest across the North Country)...before high
pressure and drier air noses northeastward from the Ohio Valley and
brings a drying trend during the afternoon. While conditions will
not be as mild as those of the preceding few days...temps will still
easily be above average with highs ranging through the 40s.
Sunday night and Monday the aforementioned surface ridge will build
across New York State and New England...while developing upper level
troughing over the High Plains encourages a flat zonal flow across
the central/eastern CONUS to slowly give way to building ridging
aloft. The end result of all this will be a quiet and dry period for
our region...along with continued above normal temperatures. Lows
Sunday night will range from around 30 east of Lake Ontario to the
lower to mid 30s elsewhere...with highs on Monday then ranging from
the lower 40s across the North Country to the mid and upper 40s
across far western New York.
As we push deeper into this period...the aforementioned upper level
trough will slowly make its way across the Plains States and into
the Mississippi Valley...with multiple attendant waves of low
pressure rippling northeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley Tuesday through Wednesday. A deepening south-southwesterly
flow out ahead of the first such system will advect notably warmer
air back into our region Tuesday when highs will range through the
50s...with temps then remaining rather mild right through midweek.
With such a mild airmass in place...the vast majority of any
precipitation from the passing surface waves will be in the form of
just plain rain...with the greatest potential for such currently
looking to come between Tuesday and Tuesday evening.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Southerly sfc flow picks up today but sfc high pressure will promote
VFR conditions at all terminals.
Tonight...sfc high to our east will provide VFR conditions at all
area terminals. LLWS will be possible overnight as a +45 knot low
level jet will be found at 2K feet. Have added that to all of our
western TAF sites, KBUF, KIAG, KJHW, and KROC after 02Z. Sfc winds
will be 14 knots or less overnight.
VFR conditions will remain in place on Thursday...but the risk for
LLWS will diminish as winds should at least partially mix to the sfc
after 14z.
Outlook...
Friday and Saturday...Areas of MVFR in stratus and fog. A chance of
showers.
Sunday...MVFR conditions in showers.
Monday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh southerlies will be found throughout the Lower
Great Lakes region through Thursday. While this will push conditions
towards small craft advisory levels...the choppy conditions
associated with the SCAs should be limited to the offshore waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a minimal chance for flooding during the upcoming weekend
and early next week, but any flooding likely to be of the minor/
nuisance variety and would be confined to the immediate Buffalo
area and tributaries flowing near the Tug Hill Plateau.
Warmer weather has already started to set in, with highs in the
40s and 50s Thursday through Tuesday of next week. This will result
in a prolonged and GRADUAL snow melt. Snow water equivalent values
in the Buffalo Creeks basin average 2 to 4 inches in the hardest
hit areas with 3 to 6 inches on the Tug Hill in the Black River
Basin. These will be the areas of concern during the next week
with ensembles showing little if any risk for flooding on our other
basins.
Snowmelt alone RARELY causes river/creek flooding. There will be
two systems of note during the period...one on Saturday and one on
Tuesday. Each should bring around a half inch of rain, with the
potential for a bit more.
In the Buffalo area, snowpack is highly variable since nearly all of
the snow is from lake effect snow from the blizzard. The greatest
amounts are in the Ellicott creek basin (Williamsville forecast
point), so this is where the greatest risk for flooding will be
found. Cayuga Creek, Buffalo Creek, Cazenovia Creek, and Tonawanda
Creek (at Rapids) are forecast to likely to reach action stage,
but unlikely to reach flood stage (ensembles show less than 20
percent chance). For these creeks, any flooding would likely be
with or just following the first system on Saturday.
Outside of creek flooding, there could also be issues with ponding
water and flooded basements in Buffalo due to the extensive snow
pack which will gradually melt into next week. Typically, this
would not prompt a flood warning, but this still could be an impact.
For the Black River basin, the greatest risk for flooding will
follow the second system which will move through on Tuesday. This is
because there's a deeper snowpack in place which will not completely
melt by early next week. Ensembles show forecast points are likely
to reach at least action stage, with a chance for flooding at
Boonville, McKeever, and Watertown.
Finally, there is a limited potential for ice jams. The combination
of cold and snow resulted in a rapid slush freeze up on some creeks.
The Ebenezer gauge is erroneously high due to ice frozen in place.
The ice in place is marginally thick enough to cause ice jams, and
will likely break up with the warm weather on Friday. This will have
to be monitored as well, with a risk for a few ice jams which would
likely be relatively quick to flush out.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...AR/RSH
MARINE...RSH
HYDROLOGY...Apffel/RSH
FXUS61 KBUF 281939                                              2022362 1939
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
239 PM EST Wed Dec 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A distinct change in the overall weather pattern will now support
for a prolonged period of above normal temperatures for our region.
The mercury will climb into the 40s for most areas on Thursday with
50s anticipated over the western counties on Friday. This will
result in a significant meltdown for areas with a snowpack...but
with only minor rainfall forecast...any issues should be minimized.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An amplifying mid level ridge will pass over our forecast area this
tonight...while strong high pressure will be situated near the
Southeast coast. This will support a deepening southerly flow of
increasingly mild air that will send temperatures into the mid and
upper 40s on Thursday. The warm up will be accompany be fair dry
weather with many areas experiencing a little sunshine for at least
part of the day.
A weak warm front will push northwards across the Lower Great Lakes
Thursday night. This could touch off some sprinkles of very light
rain showers.
Temperatures tonight will fall back to around freezing...but will
struggle to fall any lower than the lower 40s Thursday night. This
will lead to a ripening of the snowpack for those that have received
snow the past several days...then as dew points climb above freezing
Thursday afternoon...the beginning of a subsequent meltdown.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Moisture trapped beneath an inversion will keep clouds in place
on Friday. There's a higher chance for showers Friday as a mid-
level trough will dig across the nations mid-section. Any showers
will be on the light side with rainfall amounts less than a tenth
of an inch through Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Above normal temperatures throughout the period will continue to
gradually melt away the snow. Outside of dry weather on Monday,
there will be a persistent risk of rain or showers during the period.
While model guidance agrees on the general pattern, there remains
considerable differences in the specifics. In general a trough
across the Mississippi Valley Friday night will move northeastward
across New England through Sunday. An associated surface low or
trough will move across the region around Saturday, bringing the
best chance for rain. A coastal low will eventually develop near
Nova Scotia, but models disagree how quickly the transition will
take place. It's still uncertain whether the surface low will track
to our north or south, which will impact temperatures particularly
on Sunday. Either way temperatures will remain above normal and
precipitation will be rain. Highs will be mainly in the 40s, and
overnight lows Friday and Saturday night will remain well above
freezing. Rainfall amounts over the weekend will be on the light
side, generally around a half an inch although some models bring
around an inch.
A narrow ridge and area of high pressure will move across the Great
Lakes and to the forecast area for the start of next week, providing
dry weather on Monday. Low pressure will approach the Western Great
Lakes on Tuesday, with a stronger SSW bringing even warmer weather
for Tuesday with highs in the 50s. This system is likely to also
bring another round of light to moderate rain.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Southerly sfc flow picks up today but sfc high pressure will promote
VFR conditions at all terminals.
Tonight...sfc high to our east will provide VFR conditions at all
area terminals. LLWS will be possible overnight as a +45 knot low
level jet will be found at 2K feet. Have added that to all of our
western TAF sites, KBUF, KIAG, KJHW, and KROC after 02Z. Sfc winds
will be 14 knots or less overnight.
VFR conditions will remain in place on Thursday...but the risk for
LLWS will diminish as winds should at least partially mix to the sfc
after 14z.
Outlook...
Friday and Saturday...Areas of MVFR in stratus and fog. A chance of
showers.
Sunday...MVFR conditions in showers.
Monday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh southerlies will be found throughout the Lower
Great Lakes region through Thursday. While this will push conditions
towards small craft advisory levels...the choppy conditions
associated with the SCAs should be limited to the offshore waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a minimal chance for flooding during the upcoming weekend
and early next week, but any flooding likely to be of the minor/
nuisance variety and would be confined to the immediate Buffalo
area and tributaries flowing near the Tug Hill Plateau.
Warmer weather has already started to set in, with highs in the
40s and 50s Thursday through Tuesday of next week. This will result
in a prolonged and GRADUAL snow melt. Snow water equivalent values
in the Buffalo Creeks basin average 2 to 4 inches in the hardest
hit areas with 3 to 6 inches on the Tug Hill in the Black River
Basin. These will be the areas of concern during the next week
with ensembles showing little if any risk for flooding on our other
basins.
Snowmelt alone RARELY causes river/creek flooding. There will be
two systems of note during the period...one on Saturday and one on
Tuesday. Each should bring around a half inch of rain, with the
potential for a bit more.
In the Buffalo area, snowpack is highly variable since nearly all of
the snow is from lake effect snow from the blizzard. The greatest
amounts are in the Ellicott creek basin (Williamsville forecast
point), so this is where the greatest risk for flooding will be
found. Cayuga Creek, Buffalo Creek, Cazenovia Creek, and Tonawanda
Creek (at Rapids) are forecast to likely to reach action stage,
but unlikely to reach flood stage (ensembles show less than 20
percent chance). For these creeks, any flooding would likely be
with or just following the first system on Saturday.
Outside of creek flooding, there could also be issues with ponding
water and flooded basements in Buffalo due to the extensive snow
pack which will gradually melt into next week. Typically, this
would not prompt a flood warning, but this still could be an impact.
For the Black River basin, the greatest risk for flooding will
follow the second system which will move through on Tuesday. This is
because there's a deeper snowpack in place which will not completely
melt by early next week. Ensembles show forecast points are likely
to reach at least action stage, with a chance for flooding at
Boonville, McKeever, and Watertown.
Finally, there is a limited potential for ice jams. The combination
of cold and snow resulted in a rapid slush freeze up on some creeks.
The Ebenezer gauge is erroneously high due to ice frozen in place.
The ice in place is marginally thick enough to cause ice jams, and
will likely break up with the warm weather on Friday. This will have
to be monitored as well, with a risk for a few ice jams which would
likely be relatively quick to flush out.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...AR/RSH
MARINE...RSH
HYDROLOGY...Apffel/RSH
FXUS61 KBUF 281757                                              2022362 1758
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1257 PM EST Wed Dec 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A distinct change in the overall weather pattern will now support
for a prolonged period of above normal temperatures for our region.
The mercury will climb into the 40s for most areas today and
Thursday with 50s anticipated over the western counties on Friday.
This will result in a significant meltdown for areas with a
snowpack...but with only minor rainfall forecast...any issues should
be minimized.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An amplifying mid level ridge will pass over our forecast area this
afternoon and tonight...while strong high pressure will be situated
near the Southeast coast. This will support a deepening southerly
flow of increasingly mild air that will send temperatures into the
40s in most this afternoon and into the mid and upper 40s on
Thursday. The warm up will be accompany be fair dry weather with
many areas experiencing a little sunshine today and for at least
part of the day Thursday.
A weak warm front will push northwards across the Lower Great Lakes
Thursday night. This could touch off some sprinkles of very light
rain showers.
Temperatures tonight will fall back to around freezing...but will
struggle to fall any lower than the lower 40s Thursday night. This
will lead to a ripening of the snowpack for those that have received
snow the past several days...then as dew points climb above freezing
Thursday afternoon...the beginning of a subsequent meltdown.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Moisture trapped beneath an inversion will keep clouds in place
on Friday. There's a higher chance for showers Friday as a mid-
level trough will dig across the nations mid-section. Any showers
will be on the light side with rainfall amounts less than a tenth
of an inch through Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Above normal temperatures throughout the period will continue to
gradually melt away the snow. Outside of dry weather on Monday,
there will be a persistent risk of rain or showers during the period.
While model guidance agrees on the general pattern, there remains
considerable differences in the specifics. In general a trough
across the Mississippi Valley Friday night will move northeastward
across New England through Sunday. An associated surface low or
trough will move across the region around Saturday, bringing the
best chance for rain. A coastal low will eventually develop near
Nova Scotia, but models disagree how quickly the transition will
take place. It's still uncertain whether the surface low will track
to our north or south, which will impact temperatures particularly
on Sunday. Either way temperatures will remain above normal and
precipitation will be rain. Highs will be mainly in the 40s, and
overnight lows Friday and Saturday night will remain well above
freezing. Rainfall amounts over the weekend will be on the light
side, generally around a half an inch although some models bring
around an inch.
A narrow ridge and area of high pressure will move across the Great
Lakes and to the forecast area for the start of next week, providing
dry weather on Monday. Low pressure will approach the Western Great
Lakes on Tuesday, with a stronger SSW bringing even warmer weather
for Tuesday with highs in the 50s. This system is likely to also
bring another round of light to moderate rain.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Southerly sfc flow picks up today but sfc high pressure will promote
VFR conditions at all terminals.
Tonight...sfc high to our east will provide VFR conditions at all
area terminals. LLWS will be possible overnight as a +45 knot low
level jet will be found at 2K feet. Have added that to all of our
western TAF sites, KBUF, KIAG, KJHW, and KROC after 02Z. Sfc winds
will be 14 knots or less overnight.
VFR conditions will remain in place on Thursday...but the risk for
LLWS will diminish as winds should at least partially mix to the sfc
after 14z.
Outlook...
Friday and Saturday...Areas of MVFR in stratus and fog. A chance of
showers.
Sunday...MVFR conditions in showers.
Monday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SSW winds pick up today, which will direct higher wave action into
Canadian waters. However...winds will likely be strong enough to
support low end small craft advisories for Lake Erie near shores and
the eastern end of Lake Ontario waters to the St. Lawrence River.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a minimal chance for flooding during the upcoming weekend
and early next week, but any flooding likely to be of the minor/
nuisance variety and would be confined to the immediate Buffalo
area and tributaries flowing near the Tug Hill Plateau.
Warmer weather has already started to set in, with highs in the
40s and 50s Thursday through Tuesday of next week. This will result
in a prolonged and GRADUAL snow melt. Snow water equivalent values
in the Buffalo Creeks basin average 2 to 4 inches in the hardest
hit areas with 3 to 6 inches on the Tug Hill in the Black River
Basin. These will be the areas of concern during the next week
with ensembles showing little if any risk for flooding on our other
basins.
Snowmelt alone RARELY causes river/creek flooding. There will be
two systems of note during the period...one on Saturday and one on
Tuesday. Each should bring around a half inch of rain, with the
potential for a bit more.
In the Buffalo area, snowpack is highly variable since nearly all of
the snow is from lake effect snow from the blizzard. The greatest
amounts are in the Ellicott creek basin (Williamsville forecast
point), so this is where the greatest risk for flooding will be
found. Cayuga Creek, Buffalo Creek, Cazenovia Creek, and Tonawanda
Creek (at Rapids) are forecast to likely to reach action stage,
but unlikely to reach flood stage (ensembles show less than 20
percent chance). For these creeks, any flooding would likely be
with or just following the first system on Saturday.
Outside of creek flooding, there could also be issues with ponding
water and flooded basements in Buffalo due to the extensive snow
pack which will gradually melt into next week. Typically, this
would not prompt a flood warning, but this still could be an impact.
For the Black River basin, the greatest risk for flooding will
follow the second system which will move through on Tuesday. This is
because there's a deeper snowpack in place which will not completely
melt by early next week. Ensembles show forecast points are likely
to reach at least action stage, with a chance for flooding at
Boonville, McKeever, and Watertown.
Finally, there is a limited potential for ice jams. The combination
of cold and snow resulted in a rapid slush freeze up on some creeks.
The Ebenezer gauge is erroneously high due to ice frozen in place.
The ice in place is marginally thick enough to cause ice jams, and
will likely break up with the warm weather on Friday. This will have
to be monitored as well, with a risk for a few ice jams which would
likely be relatively quick to flush out.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
HYDROLOGY...Apffel/RSH
FXUS61 KBUF 281530                                              2022362 1531
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1030 AM EST Wed Dec 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A distinct change in the overall weather pattern will now support
for a prolonged period of above normal temperatures for our region.
The mercury will climb into the 40s for most areas today and
Thursday with 50s anticipated over the western counties on Friday.
This will result in a significant meltdown for areas with a
snowpack...but with only minor rainfall forecast...any issues should
be minimized.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An amplifying mid level ridge will pass over our forecast area this
afternoon and tonight...while strong high pressure will be situated
near the Southeast coast. This will support a deepening southerly
flow of increasingly mild air that will send temperatures into the
40s in most this afternoon and into the mid and upper 40s on
Thursday. The warm up will be accompany be fair dry weather with
many areas experiencing a little sunshine today and for at least
part of the day Thursday.
A weak warm front will push northwards across the Lower Great
Lakes Thursday night. This could touch off some sprinkles of
very light rain showers.
Temperatures tonight will fall back to around freezing...but will
struggle to fall any lower than the lower 40s Thursday night. This
will lead to a ripening of the snowpack for those that have received
snow the past several days...then as dew points climb above freezing
Thursday afternoon...the beginning of a subsequent meltdown.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Moisture trapped beneath an inversion will keep clouds in place
on Friday. There's a higher chance for showers Friday as a mid-
level trough will dig across the nations mid-section. Any showers
will be on the light side with rainfall amounts less than a tenth
of an inch through Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Above normal temperatures throughout the period will continue to
gradually melt away the snow. Outside of dry weather on Monday,
there will be a persistent risk of rain or showers during the period.
While model guidance agrees on the general pattern, there remains
considerable differences in the specifics. In general a trough
across the Mississippi Valley Friday night will move northeastward
across New England through Sunday. An associated surface low or
trough will move across the region around Saturday, bringing the
best chance for rain. A coastal low will eventually develop near
Nova Scotia, but models disagree how quickly the transition will
take place. It's still uncertain whether the surface low will track
to our north or south, which will impact temperatures particularly
on Sunday. Either way temperatures will remain above normal and
precipitation will be rain. Highs will be mainly in the 40s, and
overnight lows Friday and Saturday night will remain well above
freezing. Rainfall amounts over the weekend will be on the light
side, generally around a half an inch although some models bring
around an inch.
A narrow ridge and area of high pressure will move across the Great
Lakes and to the forecast area for the start of next week, providing
dry weather on Monday. Low pressure will approach the Western Great
Lakes on Tuesday, with a stronger SSW bringing even warmer weather
for Tuesday with highs in the 50s. This system is likely to also
bring another round of light to moderate rain.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Southerly sfc flow picks up today but sfc high pressure will promote
VFR conditions at all terminals.
Tonight...sfc high to our east will provide VFR conditions at all
area terminals. LLWS will be possible overnight as a +45 knot low
level jet will be found at 2K feet. Have added that to all of our
western TAF sites, KBUF, KIAG, KJHW, and KROC after 02Z. Sfc winds
will be 14 knots or less overnight.
Outlook...
Thursday...Areas of IFR/MFR possible in stratus and fog.
Friday and Saturday...Areas of MVFR in stratus and fog. A chance of
showers.
Sunday...MVFR conditions in showers.
&&
.MARINE...
SSW winds pick up today, which will direct higher wave action into
Canadian waters. However...winds will likely be strong enough to
support low end small craft advisories for Lake Erie near shores and
the eastern end of Lake Ontario waters to the St. Lawrence River.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a minimal chance for flooding during the upcoming
weekend and early next week, but any flooding likely to be of
the minor/nuisance variety and would be confined to the immediate
Buffalo area and tributaries flowing near the Tug Hill Plateau.
Warmer weather has already started to set in, with highs in the
40s and 50s Thursday through Tuesday of next week. This will
result in a prolonged and GRADUAL snow melt. Snow water equivalent
values in the Buffalo Creeks basin average 2 to 4 inches in the
hardest hit areas with 3 to 6 inches on the Tug Hill in the
Black River Basin. These will be the areas of concern during the
next week with ensembles showing little if any risk for flooding
on our other basins.
Snowmelt alone RARELY causes river/creek flooding. There will be
two systems of note during the period...one on Saturday and one
on Tuesday. Each should bring around a half inch of rain, with the
potential for a bit more.
In the Buffalo area, snowpack is highly variable since nearly all of
the snow is from lake effect snow from the blizzard. The greatest
amounts are in the Ellicott creek basin (Williamsville forecast
point), so this is where the greatest risk for flooding will be
found. Cayuga Creek, Buffalo Creek, Cazenovia Creek, and
Tonawanda Creek (at Rapids) are forecast to likely to reach
action stage, but unlikely to reach flood stage (ensembles show
less than 20 percent chance). For these creeks, any flooding would
likely be with or just following the first system on Saturday.
Outside of creek flooding, there could also be issues with ponding
water and flooded basements in Buffalo due to the extensive snow
pack which will gradually melt into next week. Typically, this
would not prompt a flood warning, but this still could be an impact.
For the Black River basin, the greatest risk for flooding will
follow the second system which will move through on Tuesday. This is
because there's a deeper snowpack in place which will not completely
melt by early next week. Ensembles show forecast points are likely
to reach at least action stage, with a chance for flooding at
Boonville, McKeever, and Watertown.
Finally, there is a limited potential for ice jams. The combination
of cold and snow resulted in a rapid slush freeze up on some creeks.
The Ebenezer gauge is erroneously high due to ice frozen in place.
The ice in place is marginally thick enough to cause ice jams, and
will likely break up with the warm weather on Friday. This will have
to be monitored as well, with a risk for a few ice jams which would
likely be relatively quick to flush out.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
HYDROLOGY...Apffel/RSH
FXUS61 KBUF 281335                                              2022362 1335
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
835 AM EST Wed Dec 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A day to day warming trend will begin today and last the rest of the
week, even into the weekend. Expect high temps in the 40s today,
then the 50s Thursday and Friday. Above normal temps will continue
right into the weekend and the foreseeable future. We might even see
some shower as early as Friday, a steadier rain will likely arrive
over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Isentropic ascent will focus warm advection lift mainly to the north
of the area across southeastern Ontario this morning. This could
yield a few flurries or light snow as the shortwave energy passes by
to our north focused across the St. Lawrence Valley and the north
country. That said...any accumulation with this will be exceedingly
minimal. An amplifying ridge aloft will then progress across the
Lower Great Lakes today, while the sfc ridge to our east helps to
modify sfc temps as southerly low level flow picks up across the
area. This will send highs today well into the 30s, to even low and
mid 40s across the lake plains.
Tonight...Sfc ridge will provide quiet and dry weather areawide. Low
will be in the upper 20s/low 30s east of Lake Ontario, mainly 30s
all other locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The warming trend will continue late this week, with a few sprinkles
or light rain showers possible. High pressure off the mid-Atlantic
coast will result in a persistent southwesterly flow, with mid-level
warm air advection pushing 850mb temperatures to around +7C by
Friday. Highs will average in the 40s Thursday, then in the upper
40s to mid 50s on Friday. Forecast hedged warmer than NBM consensus
across the the lake plains and Genesee Valley due to downsloping.
A few sprinkles or light rain showers are possible Thursday and
Thursday night as warm frontal segments move through. Moisture
trapped beneath an inversion will lead to increasing clouds Thursday
with mostly cloudy skies Thursday night and Friday. There's a better
chance for showers Friday as a mid-level trough digs across the
nations mid-section. Any showers will be on the light side with
rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch through Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Above normal temperatures throughout the period will continue to
gradually melt away the snow. Outside of dry weather on Monday,
there will be a persistent risk of rain or showers during the period.
While model guidance agrees on the general pattern, there remains
considerable differences in the specifics. In general a trough
across the Mississippi Valley Friday night will move northeastward
across New England through Sunday. An associated surface low or
trough will move across the region around Saturday, bringing the
best chance for rain. A coastal low will eventually develop near
Nova Scotia, but models disagree how quickly the transition will
take place. It's still uncertain whether the surface low will track
to our north or south, which will impact temperatures particularly
on Sunday. Either way temperatures will remain above normal and
precipitation will be rain. Highs will be mainly in the 40s, and
overnight lows Friday and Saturday night will remain well above
freezing. Rainfall amounts over the weekend will be on the light
side, generally around a half an inch although some models bring
around an inch.
A narrow ridge and area of high pressure will move across the Great
Lakes and to the forecast area for the start of next week, providing
dry weather on Monday. Low pressure will approach the Western Great
Lakes on Tuesday, with a stronger SSW bringing even warmer weather
for Tuesday with highs in the 50s. This system is likely to also
bring another round of light to moderate rain.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Flurries or light snow will be possible around KART this morning,
low certainty of visibility restrictions is not very high. So have
not added any restrictions at this point.
Southerly sfc flow picks up today but sfc high pressure will promote
VFR conditions at all terminals.
Tonight...sfc high to our east will provide VFR conditions at all
area terminals. LLWS will be possible overnight as a +45 knot low
level jet will be found at 2K feet. Have added that to all of our
western TAF sites, KBUF, KIAG, KJHW, and KROC after 02Z. Sfc winds
will be 14 knots or less overnight.
Outlook...
Thursday...Areas of IFR/MFR possible in stratus and fog.
Friday and Saturday...Areas of MVFR in stratus and fog. A chance of
showers.
Sunday...MVFR conditions in showers.
&&
.MARINE...
SSW winds pick up today, which will direct higher wave action into
Canadian waters. However...winds will likely be strong enough to
support low end small craft advisories for Lake Erie near shores and
the eastern end of Lake Ontario waters to the St. Lawrence River.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a minimal chance for flooding during the upcoming
weekend and early next week, but any flooding likely to be of
the minor/nuisance variety and would be confined to the immediate
Buffalo area and tributaries flowing near the Tug Hill Plateau.
Warmer weather has already started to set in, with highs in the
40s and 50s Thursday through Tuesday of next week. This will
result in a prolonged and GRADUAL snow melt. Snow water equivalent
values in the Buffalo Creeks basin average 2 to 4 inches in the
hardest hit areas with 3 to 6 inches on the Tug Hill in the
Black River Basin. These will be the areas of concern during the
next week with ensembles showing little if any risk for flooding
on our other basins.
Snowmelt alone RARELY causes river/creek flooding. There will be
two systems of note during the period...one on Saturday and one
on Tuesday. Each should bring around a half inch of rain, with the
potential for a bit more.
In the Buffalo area, snowpack is highly variable since nearly all of
the snow is from lake effect snow from the blizzard. The greatest
amounts are in the Ellicott creek basin (Williamsville forecast
point), so this is where the greatest risk for flooding will be
found. Cayuga Creek, Buffalo Creek, Cazenovia Creek, and
Tonawanda Creek (at Rapids) are forecast to likely to reach
action stage, but unlikely to reach flood stage (ensembles show
less than 20 percent chance). For these creeks, any flooding would
likely be with or just following the first system on Saturday.
Outside of creek flooding, there could also be issues with ponding
water and flooded basements in Buffalo due to the extensive snow
pack which will gradually melt into next week. Typically, this
would not prompt a flood warning, but this still could be an impact.
For the Black River basin, the greatest risk for flooding will
follow the second system which will move through on Tuesday. This is
because there's a deeper snowpack in place which will not completely
melt by early next week. Ensembles show forecast points are likely
to reach at least action stage, with a chance for flooding at
Boonville, McKeever, and Watertown.
Finally, there is a limited potential for ice jams. The combination
of cold and snow resulted in a rapid slush freeze up on some creeks.
The Ebenezer gauge is erroneously high due to ice frozen in place.
The ice in place is marginally thick enough to cause ice jams, and
will likely break up with the warm weather on Friday. This will have
to be monitored as well, with a risk for a few ice jams which would
likely be relatively quick to flush out.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
HYDROLOGY...Apffel/RSH
FXUS61 KBUF 281134                                              2022362 1134
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
634 AM EST Wed Dec 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A day to day warming trend will begin today and last the rest of the
week, even into the weekend. Expect high temps in the 40s today,
then the 50s Thursday and Friday. Above normal temps will continue
right into the weekend and the foreseeable future. We might even see
some shower as early as Friday, a steadier rain will likely arrive
over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Isentropic ascent will focus warm advection lift mainly to the north
of the area across southeastern Ontario this morning. This could
yield a few flurries or light snow as the shortwave energy passes by
to our north focused across the St. Lawrence Valley and the north
country. That said...any accumulation with this will be exceedingly
minimal. An amplifying ridge aloft will then progress across the
Lower Great Lakes today, while the sfc ridge to our east helps to
modify sfc temps as southerly low level flow picks up across the
area. This will send highs today well into the 30s, to even low and
mid 40s across the lake plains.
Tonight...Sfc ridge will provide quiet and dry weather areawide. Low
will be in the upper 20s/low 30s east of Lake Ontario, mainly 30s
all other locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The warming trend will continue late this week, with a few sprinkles
or light rain showers possible. High pressure off the mid-Atlantic
coast will result in a persistent southwesterly flow, with mid-level
warm air advection pushing 850mb temperatures to around +7C by
Friday. Highs will average in the 40s Thursday, then in the upper
40s to mid 50s on Friday. Forecast hedged warmer than NBM consensus
across the the lake plains and Genesee Valley due to downsloping.
A few sprinkles or light rain showers are possible Thursday and
Thursday night as warm frontal segments move through. Moisture
trapped beneath an inversion will lead to increasing clouds Thursday
with mostly cloudy skies Thursday night and Friday. There's a better
chance for showers Friday as a mid-level trough digs across the
nations mid-section. Any showers will be on the light side with
rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch through Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Above normal temperatures throughout the period will continue to
gradually melt away the snow. Outside of dry weather on Monday,
there will be a persistent risk of rain or showers during the period.
While model guidance agrees on the general pattern, there remains
considerable differences in the specifics. In general a trough
across the Mississippi Valley Friday night will move northeastward
across New England through Sunday. An associated surface low or
trough will move across the region around Saturday, bringing the
best chance for rain. A coastal low will eventually develop near
Nova Scotia, but models disagree how quickly the transition will
take place. It's still uncertain whether the surface low will track
to our north or south, which will impact temperatures particularly
on Sunday. Either way temperatures will remain above normal and
precipitation will be rain. Highs will be mainly in the 40s, and
overnight lows Friday and Saturday night will remain well above
freezing. Rainfall amounts over the weekend will be on the light
side, generally around a half an inch although some models bring
around an inch.
A narrow ridge and area of high pressure will move across the Great
Lakes and to the forecast area for the start of next week, providing
dry weather on Monday. Low pressure will approach the Western Great
Lakes on Tuesday, with a stronger SSW bringing even warmer weather
for Tuesday with highs in the 50s. This system is likely to also
bring another round of light to moderate rain.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Flurries or light snow will be possible around KART this morning,
low certainty of visibility restrictions is not very high. So have
not added any restrictions at this point.
Southerly sfc flow picks up today but sfc high pressure will promote
VFR conditions at all terminals.
Tonight...sfc high to our east will provide VFR conditions at all
area terminals. LLWS will be possible overnight as a +45 knot low
level jet will be found at 2K feet. Have added that to all of our
western TAF sites, KBUF, KIAG, KJHW, and KROC after 02Z. Sfc winds
will be 14 knots or less overnight.
Outlook...
Thursday...Areas of IFR/MFR possible in stratus and fog.
Friday and Saturday...Areas of MVFR in stratus and fog. A chance of
showers.
Sunday...MVFR conditions in showers.
&&
.MARINE...
SSW winds pick up today, which will direct higher wave action into
Canadian waters. However...winds will likely be strong enough to
support low end small craft advisories for Lake Erie near shores and
the eastern end of Lake Ontario waters to the St. Lawrence River.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a chance for flooding during the upcoming weekend and
early next week, but any flooding likely to be more of the
minor/nuisance variety.
Warmer weather is on the way, with highs in the 40s and 50s Thursday
through Tuesday resulting in prolonged and gradual snow melt. Snow
water equivalent values in the Buffalo Creeks basin average 2 to 4
inches in the hardest hit areas, with 3 to 6 inches on the Tug Hill
in the Black River Basin. These will be the areas of concern during
the next week, with ensembles showing little risk for flooding on
our other basins.
Snowmelt along rarely causes river/creek flooding. There will be two
systems of note during the period, one on Saturday and one on
Tuesday. Each should bring around a half inch of rain, with the
potential for a bit more.
In the Buffalo area, snowpack is highly variable since nearly all of
it is from lake effect snow from the blizzard. The greatest amounts
are in Ellicott creek (Williamsville forecast point) which has the
greatest risk for flooding. Cayuga Creek, Buffalo Creek, Cazenovia
Creek, and Tonawanda Creek (at Rapids) are likely to reach action
stage but unlikely to reach flood stage (ensembles show less than 20
percent chance). For these creeks, any flooding would likely be with
or just following the first system on Saturday.
Outside of creek flooding, there could also be issues with ponding
water and flooded basements in Buffalo due to the extensive snow
pack which will gradually melt through this weekend. Typically, this
would not prompt a flood warning, but this still could be an impact.
For the Black River basin, the greatest risk for flooding will
follow the second system which will move through on Tuesday. This is
because there's a deeper snowpack in place which will not completely
melt by early next week. Ensembles show forecast points are likely
to reach at least action stage, with a chance for flooding at
Boonville, McKeever, and Watertown.
Finally, there is a limited potential for ice jams. The combination
of cold and snow resulted in a rapid slush freeze up on some creeks.
The Ebenezer gauge is erroneously high due to ice frozen in place.
The ice in place is marginally thick enough to cause ice jams, and
will likely break up with the warm weather on Friday. This will have
to be monitored as well, with a risk for a few ice jams which would
likely be relatively quick to flush out.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 280949                                              2022362 0949
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
449 AM EST Wed Dec 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A day to day warming trend will begin today and last the rest of the
week, even into the weekend. Expect high temps in the 40s today,
then the 50s Thursday and Friday. Above normal temps will continue
right into the weekend and the foreseeable future. We might even see
some shower as early as Friday, a steadier rain will likely arrive
over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Isentropic ascent will focus warm advection lift mainly to the north
of the area across southeastern Ontario this morning. This could
yield a few flurries or very light snow across the St. Lawrence
Valley and north country as shortwave energy passes by the
lakes. That said...any accumulation with this will be
exceedingly minimal. An amplifying ridge aloft will progress
across the Lower Great Lakes today, while the sfc ridge to our
east helps to modify sfc temps, this as southerly low level flow
picks up across the area. This will send highs today well into
the 30s, to even low and mid 40s across the lake plains.
Tonight...sfc ridge will provide quiet and dry weather
areawide. Low will be in the upper 20s/low 30s east of Lake
Ontario, mainly 30s all other locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The warming trend will continue late this week, with a few sprinkles
or light rain showers possible. High pressure off the mid-Atlantic
coast will result in a persistent southwesterly flow, with mid-level
warm air advection pushing 850mb temperatures to around +7C by
Friday. Highs will average in the 40s Thursday, then in the upper
40s to mid 50s on Friday. Forecast hedged warmer than NBM consensus
across the the lake plains and Genesee Valley due to downsloping.
A few sprinkles or light rain showers are possible Thursday and
Thursday night as warm frontal segments move through. Moisture
trapped beneath an inversion will lead to increasing clouds Thursday
with mostly cloudy skies Thursday night and Friday. There's a better
chance for showers Friday as a mid-level trough digs across the
nations mid-section. Any showers will be on the light side with
rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch through Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Above normal temperatures throughout the period will continue to
gradually melt away the snow. Outside of dry weather on Monday,
there will be a persistent risk of rain or showers during the period.
While model guidance agrees on the general pattern, there remains
considerable differences in the specifics. In general a trough
across the Mississippi Valley Friday night will move northeastward
across New England through Sunday. An associated surface low or
trough will move across the region around Saturday, bringing the
best chance for rain. A coastal low will eventually develop near
Nova Scotia, but models disagree how quickly the transition will
take place. It's still uncertain whether the surface low will track
to our north or south, which will impact temperatures particularly
on Sunday. Either way temperatures will remain above normal and
precipitation will be rain. Highs will be mainly in the 40s, and
overnight lows Friday and Saturday night will remain well above
freezing. Rainfall amounts over the weekend will be on the light
side, generally around a half an inch although some models bring
around an inch.
A narrow ridge and area of high pressure will move across the Great
Lakes and to the forecast area for the start of next week, providing
dry weather on Monday. Low pressure will approach the Western Great
Lakes on Tuesday, with a stronger SSW bringing even warmer weather
for Tuesday with highs in the 50s. This system is likely to also
bring another round of light to moderate rain.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Flurries or light snow will be possible around KART, low certainty
of visibility restrictions is not very high.
Southerly sfc flow picks up today but sfc high pressure will promote
VFR conditions at all terminals.
Tonight...sfc high to our east will provide VFR conditions at all
area terminals. LLWS will be possible overnight as a +45 knot low
level jet will be found at 2K feet. Have added that to all of our
western TAF sites, KBUF, KIAG, KJHW, and KROC after 02Z. Sfc winds
will be 14 knots or less overnight.
Outlook...
Thursday...Areas of IFR/MFR possible in stratus and fog.
Friday and Saturday...Areas of MVFR in stratus and fog. A chance of
showers.
Sunday...MVFR conditions in showers.
&&
.MARINE...
SSW sfc winds pick up today, which will direct higher wave
action into Canadian waters. However...winds will likely be
just strong enough to support low end small craft advisories
for the near shores of Lake Erie and the eastern end of Lake
Ontario waters to the St. Lawrence River.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a chance for flooding during the upcoming weekend and
early next week, but any flooding likely to be more of the
minor/nuisance variety.
Warmer weather is on the way, with highs in the 40s and 50s Thursday
through Tuesday resulting in prolonged and gradual snow melt. Snow
water equivalent values in the Buffalo Creeks basin average 2 to 4
inches in the hardest hit areas, with 3 to 6 inches on the Tug Hill
in the Black River Basin. These will be the areas of concern during
the next week, with ensembles showing little risk for flooding on
our other basins.
Snowmelt along rarely causes river/creek flooding. There will be two
systems of note during the period, one on Saturday and one on
Tuesday. Each should bring around a half inch of rain, with the
potential for a bit more.
In the Buffalo area, snowpack is highly variable since nearly all of
it is from lake effect snow from the blizzard. The greatest amounts
are in Ellicott creek (Williamsville forecast point) which has the
greatest risk for flooding. Cayuga Creek, Buffalo Creek, Cazenovia
Creek, and Tonawanda Creek (at Rapids) are likely to reach action
stage but unlikely to reach flood stage (ensembles show less than 20
percent chance). For these creeks, any flooding would likely be with
or just following the first system on Saturday.
Outside of creek flooding, there could also be issues with ponding
water and flooded basements in Buffalo due to the extensive snow
pack which will gradually melt through this weekend. Typically, this
would not prompt a flood warning, but this still could be an impact.
For the Black River basin, the greatest risk for flooding will
follow the second system which will move through on Tuesday. This is
because there's a deeper snowpack in place which will not completely
melt by early next week. Ensembles show forecast points are likely
to reach at least action stage, with a chance for flooding at
Boonville, McKeever, and Watertown.
Finally, there is a limited potential for ice jams. The combination
of cold and snow resulted in a rapid slush freeze up on some creeks.
The Ebenezer gauge is erroneously high due to ice frozen in place.
The ice in place is marginally thick enough to cause ice jams, and
will likely break up with the warm weather on Friday. This will have
to be monitored as well, with a risk for a few ice jams which would
likely be relatively quick to flush out.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 280928                                              2022362 0928
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
428 AM EST Wed Dec 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A day to day warming trend will begin today and last the rest of the
week, even into the weekend. Expect high temps in the 40s today,
then the 50s Thursday and Friday. Above normal temps will continue
right into the weekend and the foreseeable future. We might even see
some shower as early as Friday, a steadier rain will likely arrive
over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warm advection has started in earnest across the area. Isentropic
ascent will focus warm advection lift mainly to the north of the
area across southeastern Ontario. Some of this will cross Lake
Ontario and the north country, which could yield a chance of light
snow as shortwave energy passes by to our north. That said...any
accumulation with this will be exceedingly minimal. Best shot will
be located across the St. Lawrence Valley and north country.
Today....an amplifying ridge aloft will progress across the Lower
Great Lakes, while the sfc ridge to our east helps to modify sfc
temps as southerly low level flow picks up across the area. This
will send highs today well into the 30s, to even low and mid 40s.
Tonight...Sfc ridge will provide quiet and dry weather areawide. Low
will be in the upper 20s/low 30s east of Lake Ontario, mainly 30s
all other locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The warming trend will continue late this week, with a few sprinkles
or light rain showers possible. High pressure off the mid-Atlantic
coast will result in a persistent southwesterly flow, with mid-level
warm air advection pushing 850mb temperatures to around +7C by
Friday. Highs will average in the 40s Thursday, then in the upper
40s to mid 50s on Friday. Forecast hedged warmer than NBM consensus
across the the lake plains and Genesee Valley due to downsloping.
A few sprinkles or light rain showers are possible Thursday and
Thursday night as warm frontal segments move through. Moisture
trapped beneath an inversion will lead to increasing clouds Thursday
with mostly cloudy skies Thursday night and Friday. There's a better
chance for showers Friday as a mid-level trough digs across the
nations mid-section. Any showers will be on the light side with
rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch through Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Above normal temperatures throughout the period will continue to
gradually melt away the snow. Outside of dry weather on Monday,
there will be a persistent risk of rain or showers during the period.
While model guidance agrees on the general pattern, there remains
considerable differences in the specifics. In general a trough
across the Mississippi Valley Friday night will move northeastward
across New England through Sunday. An associated surface low or
trough will move across the region around Saturday, bringing the
best chance for rain. A coastal low will eventually develop near
Nova Scotia, but models disagree how quickly the transition will
take place. It's still uncertain whether the surface low will track
to our north or south, which will impact temperatures particularly
on Sunday. Either way temperatures will remain above normal and
precipitation will be rain. Highs will be mainly in the 40s, and
overnight lows Friday and Saturday night will remain well above
freezing. Rainfall amounts over the weekend will be on the light
side, generally around a half an inch although some models bring
around an inch.
A narrow ridge and area of high pressure will move across the Great
Lakes and to the forecast area for the start of next week, providing
dry weather on Monday. Low pressure will approach the Western Great
Lakes on Tuesday, with a stronger SSW bringing even warmer weather
for Tuesday with highs in the 50s. This system is likely to also
bring another round of light to moderate rain.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Flurries or light snow will be possible around KART, low certainty
of visibility restrictions is not very high.
Southerly sfc flow picks up today but sfc high pressure will promote
VFR conditions at all terminals.
Tonight...sfc high to our east will provide VFR conditions at all
area terminals. LLWS will be possible overnight as a +45 knot low
level jet will be found at 2K feet. Have added that to all of our
western TAF sites, KBUF, KIAG, KJHW, and KROC after 02Z. Sfc winds
will be 14 knots or less overnight.
Outlook...
Thursday...Areas of IFR/MFR possible in stratus and fog.
Friday and Saturday...Areas of MVFR in stratus and fog. A chance of
showers.
Sunday...MVFR conditions in showers.
&&
.MARINE...
SSW winds pick up today, which will direct higher wave action into
Canadian waters. However...winds will potentially be strong enough to
require small craft headlines for eastern portions of the Lake Erie
and Ontario waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a chance for flooding during the upcoming weekend and
early next week, but any flooding likely to be more of the
minor/nuisance variety.
Warmer weather is on the way, with highs in the 40s and 50s Thursday
through Tuesday resulting in prolonged and gradual snow melt. Snow
water equivalent values in the Buffalo Creeks basin average 2 to 4
inches in the hardest hit areas, with 3 to 6 inches on the Tug Hill
in the Black River Basin. These will be the areas of concern during
the next week, with ensembles showing little risk for flooding on
our other basins.
Snowmelt along rarely causes river/creek flooding. There will be two
systems of note during the period, one on Saturday and one on
Tuesday. Each should bring around a half inch of rain, with the
potential for a bit more.
In the Buffalo area, snowpack is highly variable since nearly all of
it is from lake effect snow from the blizzard. The greatest amounts
are in Ellicott creek (Williamsville forecast point) which has the
greatest risk for flooding. Cayuga Creek, Buffalo Creek, Cazenovia
Creek, and Tonawanda Creek (at Rapids) are likely to reach action
stage but unlikely to reach flood stage (ensembles show less than 20
percent chance). For these creeks, any flooding would likely be with
or just following the first system on Saturday.
Outside of creek flooding, there could also be issues with ponding
water and flooded basements in Buffalo due to the extensive snow
pack which will gradually melt through this weekend. Typically, this
would not prompt a flood warning, but this still could be an impact.
For the Black River basin, the greatest risk for flooding will
follow the second system which will move through on Tuesday. This is
because there's a deeper snowpack in place which will not completely
melt by early next week. Ensembles show forecast points are likely
to reach at least action stage, with a chance for flooding at
Boonville, McKeever, and Watertown.
Finally, there is a limited potential for ice jams. The combination
of cold and snow resulted in a rapid slush freeze up on some creeks.
The Ebenezer gauge is erroneously high due to ice frozen in place.
The ice in place is marginally thick enough to cause ice jams, and
will likely break up with the warm weather on Friday. This will have
to be monitored as well, with a risk for a few ice jams which would
likely be relatively quick to flush out.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 280617                                              2022362 0617
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
117 AM EST Wed Dec 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A day to day warming trend will begin today and last the rest of the
week, even into the weekend. Expect high temps in the 40s today,
then the 50s Thursday and Friday. Above normal temps will continue
right into the weekend and the foreseeable future. We might even see
some shower as early as Friday, a steadier rain will likely arrive
over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warm advection has started in earnest across the area. Isentropic
ascent will focus warm advection lift mainly to the north of the
area across southeastern Ontario. Some of this will cross Lake
Ontario and the north country, which could yield a chance of light
snow as shortwave energy passes by to our north. That said...any
accumulation with this will be exceedingly minimal. Best shot will
be located across the St. Lawrence Valley and north country.
Today....an amplifying ridge aloft will progress across the Lower
Great Lakes, while the sfc ridge to our east helps to modify sfc
temps as southerly low level flow picks up across the area. This
will send highs today well into the 30s, to even low and mid 40s.
Tonight...Sfc ridge will provide quiet and dry weather areawide. Low
will be in the upper 20s/low 30s east of Lake Ontario, mainly 30s
all other locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Generally quiet weather for the first half of the short term period,
with continued warming to around 20 degrees above normal by Friday.
Warming temperatures will result in melting of snow from this past
weekends snow event.
An area of high pressure off the Atlantic coast will continue a
southerly flow over the region. This will cause temperatures to warm
well above normal into the mid 40s to near 50 for Thursday and into
the upper 40s to mid 50s for Friday. As an area of low pressure
tracks across Ontario Province, Thursday night into Friday. A weak
warm front associated with the system will track north across the
area Thursday night, and may cause a few showers for the North
Country.
The trailing cold front from the Ontario system will slowly track
toward WNY causing increased chances for showers on Friday afternoon
into the evening. The best chance for showers will be across far WNY
and over the lakes.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The front approaching from the west will cross the area increasing
the chance for showers from west to east. Model discrepancy still
among guidance for the weekend for speed of frontal passage and if a
secondary wave/low will track northeast along the front, causing
more steady and widespread rainfall for the forecast area.
A narrow ridge and area of high pressure will move across the Great
Lakes and to the forecast area for the start of next week, providing
dry weather on Monday. Another cold front approaches the region for
Tuesday with widespread precipitation expected.
Temperatures during the long term will be a bit cooler behind the
passing cold front, with highs in the low to mid 40s for Saturday
through Monday. Temperatures for Tuesday will briefly warm up for
Tuesday in the warm sector of the approaching low, and ahead of the
cold front to the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Flurries or light snow will be possible around KART, low certainty
of visibility restrictions is not very high.
Southerly sfc flow picks up today but sfc high pressure will promote
VFR conditions at all terminals.
Tonight...sfc high to our east will provide VFR conditions at all
area terminals. LLWS will be possible overnight as a +45 knot low
level jet will be found at 2K feet. Have added that to all of our
western TAF sites, KBUF, KIAG, KJHW, and KROC after 02Z. Sfc winds
will be 14 knots or less overnight.
Outlook...
Thursday...Areas of IFR/MFR possible in stratus and fog.
Friday and Saturday...Areas of MVFR in stratus and fog. A chance of
showers.
Sunday...MVFR conditions in showers.
&&
.MARINE...
SSW winds pick up today, which will direct higher wave action into
Canadian waters. However...winds will potentially be strong enough to
require small craft headlines for eastern portions of the Lake Erie
and Ontario waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding during the upcoming weekend, with
any flooding likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt will
start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather will
continue through the weekend and into next week with highs in the
lower 50s at most locations. There is high confidence in this,
however snow melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a couple weak systems will bring
generally light rainfall to the region during the weekend, with
rainfall amounts generally around a half inch. This is likely to
push many of the Buffalo area Creeks and the Black River to action
stage, but it should take around an inch of rain from this system
before flooding becomes a concern. There's a small risk this will
happen, but in general the flood risk is low but non- zero.
Outside of creek flooding, there could be issues with flooded
basements in urban areas as the extensive snow pack gradually melts
this weekend and into next week. Typically, this would not prompt
a flood warning, but this still could be an impact.
One other thing to note, is that there are some ice jams frozen in
place on some creeks. For example, the gauge at Ebenezer on Cazenovia
Creek is reading erroneously high due to an ice jam, and there's
likely a freeze up ice jam on Sandy Creek. Ice thickness is marginal
to support ice jams, but these will have to be monitored as the
warmer weather moves in.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
FXUS61 KBUF 280213                                              2022362 0213
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
913 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
The extremely impactful lake snows have ended off of Lake Erie
and are near an end off Lake Ontario. A marked pattern change
will follow these snows and result in a significant day to day
warming trend through the remainder of the week. In fact, high
temperatures will reach into the 50s for most areas Friday and
Saturday. The mercury should then generally remain above normal
through the first week of the new year.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Lake snows have been totally eviscerated off Lake Erie, and they
are dying a swift death off of Lake Ontario. Flow will continue
to turn more southerly through the evening hours with shear
below the inversion heights increasing even east of Lake
Ontario. This will allow for lake snow activity to continue
sputter out in the form of nothing more than a flurry dusting.
The last of the winter weather advisories for Jefferson and
Lewis counties have thus been dropped.
Warm advection will start in earnest across the area overnight
as isentropic ascent focuses warm advection lift generally north
of the area across southeastern Ontario overnight. Some of this
will cross Lake Ontario and the north country overnight yielding
some chance of light snow associated with it. Any accumulation
with this will be exceedingly minimal.
An amplifying ridge will progress across the Lower Great Lakes on
Wednesday...while strong sfc high pressure centered near the
Southeast coast will help to circulate milder air into our region
from the Ohio valley. H85 temps forecast to climb to an average of
5c will help our max temps to climb into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
The benign weather under the passing ridge will persist through
Wednesday night...with fair dry weather expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Generally quiet weather for the first half of the short term period,
with continued warming to around 20 degrees above normal by Friday.
Warming temperatures will result in melting of snow from this past
weekends snow event.
An area of high pressure off the Atlantic coast will continue a
southerly flow over the region. This will cause temperatures to warm
well above normal into the mid 40s to near 50 for Thursday and into
the upper 40s to mid 50s for Friday. As an area of low pressure
tracks across Ontario Province, Thursday night into Friday. A weak
warm front associated with the system will track north across the
area Thursday night, and may cause a few showers for the North
Country.
The trailing cold front from the Ontario system will slowly track
toward WNY causing increased chances for showers on Friday afternoon
into the evening. The best chance for showers will be across far WNY
and over the lakes.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The front approaching from the west will cross the area increasing
the chance for showers from west to east. Model discrepancy still
among guidance for the weekend for speed of frontal passage and if a
secondary wave/low will track northeast along the front, causing
more steady and widespread rainfall for the forecast area.
A narrow ridge and area of high pressure will move across the Great
Lakes and to the forecast area for the start of next week, providing
dry weather on Monday. Another cold front approaches the region for
Tuesday with widespread precipitation expected.
Temperatures during the long term will be a bit cooler behind the
passing cold front, with highs in the low to mid 40s for Saturday
through Monday. Temperatures for Tuesday will briefly warm up for
Tuesday in the warm sector of the approaching low, and ahead of the
cold front to the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lake effect snow has generally weakened to simple flurries over
KBUF and even KART as of 00z. This will yield widespread MVFR
conditions over all the sites overnight as a weak system
transits southern Ontario. Some light snow will be possible
around KART overnight with this, however certainty of visibility
restrictions is not very high. Stronger southerly winds arrive
on Wednesday and VFR conditions will spread over all sites
through the afternoon.
Outlook...
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...Areas of IFR/MFR possible in stratus and fog.
Friday and Saturday...Areas of MVFR in stratus and fog. A chance of
showers.
Sunday...MVFR conditions in showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds continue to diminish on the waters, enough so that all of
the small craft headlines have been dropped.
SSW winds pick up a bit tonight and Wednesday, which will be
marginal but may require small craft headlines for eastern portions
of the Lake Erie and Ontario waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding during the upcoming weekend, with
any flooding likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.
Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt will
start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather will
continue through the weekend and into next week with highs in the
lower 50s at most locations. There is high confidence in this,
however snow melt alone rarely causes flooding.
Latest model guidance suggests a couple weak systems will bring
generally light rainfall to the region during the weekend, with
rainfall amounts generally around a half inch. This is likely to
push many of the Buffalo area Creeks and the Black River to action
stage, but it should take around an inch of rain from this system
before flooding becomes a concern. There's a small risk this will
happen, but in general the flood risk is low but non- zero.
Outside of creek flooding, there could be issues with flooded
basements in urban areas as the extensive snow pack gradually melts
this weekend and into next week. Typically, this would not prompt
a flood warning, but this still could be an impact.
One other thing to note, is that there are some ice jams frozen in
place on some creeks. For example, the gauge at Ebenezer on Cazenovia
Creek is reading erroneously high due to an ice jam, and there's
likely a freeze up ice jam on Sandy Creek. Ice thickness is marginal
to support ice jams, but these will have to be monitored as the
warmer weather moves in.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...Fries/RSH
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Fries/RSH
MARINE...Apffel/Fries
HYDROLOGY...Apffel