Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion
For Friday, September 23, 2022  09:00 UTC
FORECASTER - Troy Anderson 
Nowcast (Friday)
Overnight, Major Category 4 Hurricane Fiona made its approach to 
the Island. Tropical Storm Force winds began over the Island from 
the late evening as forecast and gradually winds ramped up through 
the Storm Force criteria and eventually into the Hurricane Force 
regime. Preliminary reports continue to see recorded maximum sustained 
winds speeds within the 50-75 knot range with gusts near 90 knots. 
A post storm analysis will be conducted revealing the recorded observations.

Hurricane Fiona had weakened during its passage in recent hours 
and has now become a strong category 3 hurricane. Expected a gradual 
wind down of hurricane force winds through the morning becoming 30-50 
knots by midday. Thereafter, expect the slow decrease of winds becoming 
strong by overnight. Rainfall is expected to continue through the 
morning and into the afternoon before easing. Daylight will help 
reveal storm surge values and measurements. Please continue to monitor 
the storm’s progress online at www.weather.bm and stay tuned to the 
latest information. Regarding seas, the OPC wave analysis has analyzed 
near 33-foot seas nearby during the time of this discussion. The 
public is advised to remain away from the coasts and out of the water. 
The expectation is for dangerous seas and swells to diminish over 
the coming days. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the moment 
but this is likely to be downgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning by 
this afternoon. This will likely be followed by a Small Craft Warning 
with gusty winds overnight as wind veer towards the northwest. Wind 
data veers winds from the southwest towards the west during the afternoon 
and then the northwest by evening with speeds dropping off. Stay 
indoors and stay safe Bermuda.

Aviation:  The Airport remains closed for the moment while Hurricane 
Fiona clear the area. Until its reopening, no aviation products are 
valid. For more information please see www.weather.bm/aviation  

Short-Term (Saturday- Sunday) 
On Saturday, a ridge of high pressure moves quickly in from the 
west behind a cold front extending from what will be Extra-Tropical 
Cyclone Fiona. Cooler and much drier weather remains in store. Dew 
point values within the NWP suite rapidly drop towards the upper 
50s and low 60s offering a less humid feel while temperatures also 
plummet towards the low-to-upper 70s. Wind data begins the period 
with high-end moderate northwesterly winds before gradually reducing 
speeds to become light and possibly variable overnight. Then on Sunday, 
winds become variable in direction and fall near calm at times as 
the centre of the high drifts nearly overhead. Rather dry conditions 
are anticipated for the short-term period with QPFs remaining near 
0mm. Cloud products continue to hint at the presence of cold air 
stratocumulus behind the front in the northwesterlies, particularly 
overnight between Saturday and Sunday. This pattern may spill into 
Sunday making the day a bit cloudier. Concerning seas, the UK and 
GFS wave models rapidly reduce states dropping below the 9-foot threshold 
overnight on Sunday. This easing trend continues as through Sunday 
as seas fall towards the 4-7 foot range. Thus, a Small Craft Warning 
may remain in effect through Saturday and will likely be terminated 
overnight.

Long term (Monday- Tuesday)
On Monday, the local ridge of high pressure will merge with a larger 
and broader anticyclone out of the east. Moisture is expected to 
linger while winds settle out of the southeast. A good mix of sun 
and clouds is expected for Monday with the continuation of the drier 
regime. Then on Tuesday, a weak inverted trough will merge with a 
front moving off the east coast and extend down towards the Florida 
peninsula. At this time, a possible tropical cyclone is expected 
to near the gulf region well south of the area. This continues to 
remain not a concern for Bermuda. Locally, a few cloudier spells 
and showers are likely to develop of the inverted troughing moves 
overhead. The UK and GFS wave models continue to decrease seas become 
3-5 feet on Monday and continuing this trend into Tuesday. No watches 
or warnings are currently anticipated for the long term period.