FXUS65 KVEF 171858 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1158 AM PDT Sun Jul 17 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Another couple days of monsoonal thunderstorms expected, favoring the higher terrain. Monsoon moisture retreats by mid-week reducing rain/thunder chances to below mentionable levels through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will remain above-average until next weekend when monsoonal moisture begins to filter back into the area. && .SHORT TERM...Today and Tomorrow. This morning`s MCV is quite evident spinning over northwestern Clark County as of 1130AM this morning. This vort max from last night`s convection led to moderate and briefly heavy rainfall across the county this morning and brought rare rainfall to Death Valley as well. Moving into into the afternoon, this MCV will continue to push northward and wrap around the periphery of the H5 ridge in place. 12Z HRRR takes this and dissipates it moving into north-central NV as it gets enveloped by the synoptic flow to the north. As it takes this track, further convection is expected to be enhanced across Nye and Lincoln counties this afternoon, some of which is already taking place. Farther west, another round of Sierra convection is beginning due to southerly low and mid level flow riding up the Sierra slopes to the west. While this area isn`t as robust from a moisture standpoint, there is enough instability and minor shearing to allow some updrafts to grow enough to produce some marginally severe winds and briefly heavy rainfall. Owens Valley may receive some 50+ mph thunderstorm outflows or rock/mudslides if these storms are able to tap into these ingredients this afternoon. The 12Z HREF again shows a similar pattern to today for tomorrow, with morning convection in the southern CWA due to another MCS in Sonora riding up the ridge into the Great Basin. Tomorrow`s lacks a decent inverted trough however so unclear whether this convection will organize into a MCV or simply push outflow our direction. HREF members maintain updrafts at least into the lower CRV for tomorrow morning though so either way, the environment will continue to be favorable for morning convection again tomorrow morning which will largely steer the evolution of convection for the rest of the day. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Next Week. Not much change in the long term expectations. Still expecting PWAT values to decrease across much of the area and even fall to below normal for a brief period late week per latest ensemble meteograms. With the high pressure still in place, heating will stay above average with subtle vort energy wrapping around the high. This will set the stage for at least a few days of dry conditions and confine PoPs to Arizona for the most part. Even Mohave may have a dry afternoon or two Thursday or Friday, and rely on convection to the east to kick off outflows for any precip. Heading into next weekend, moisture begins to build back into the Great Basin. A tropical system coming off the coast of Mexico pushes northwest but out into the Pacific in response to our entrenched H5 ridge playing blocker. So instead of deep tropical moisture advecting into the region, the typical northern Mexico set up should return by next weekend. However, with the ridge potentially shifted west, much of the upper level features that lead to more widespread PoP potential may be lacking and high terrain continues to see the most convection, at least initially. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and variable winds should continue for another hour or two. Once the cloud debris from earlier storms clears out and stronger heating ensues, winds should favor an easterly direction, potentially southeasterly. This evening, winds are expected to turn to the south-southwest persist through the night. Best chances for thunderstorms outflow will be in the late afternoon. There could also be a round of thunderstorms tomorrow morning, similar to what we saw this morning. At the moment, confidence in this is not overly high, but will be something to monitor. Erratic and gusty winds will be possible with any storms that form in the valley. FEW-SCT cumulus this afternoon, with bases around 12 KFT. SCT-BKN clouds at 12 KFT tomorrow morning as moisture and potentially precipitation pushes north. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Isolated afternoon thunderstorms likely to develop in northwest Arizona, southern Nevada, eastern San Bernardino County, and the Sierra crest. Gusty and erratic outflow winds of 30+ mph will be possible with any nearby storms. Otherwise, generally south winds are expected to prevail across the area, with KDAG being the exception. KDAG should see light northeast winds this afternoon before their typical southwest push this evening. Scattered mid- level clouds at 10-12 KFT this afternoon. Sites in the Colorado River Valley could once again see some overnight/early morning storms, similar to what happened last night. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...TB3 AVIATION...Woods For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter