WDPS32 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.2S 144.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 193 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TC 06P TRACKED INTO THE PRINCESS CHARLOTTE BAY WHILE CONSOLIDATING, AND BRIEFLY FLIRTED WITH AN EYE, WHICH LED TO A JUMP IN DVORAK ESTIMATES TO T4.0 (65 KNOTS). A PARTIAL 092011Z SMAP IMAGE ALSO INDICATED PEAK WINDS OF 65 KNOTS, THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT TYPHOON STRENGTH. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL (ABOUT 100130Z) AND HAS SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKENED. THERE ARE NO AVAILABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THIS AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS ALSO TOO FAR FROM THE WEIPA AND CAIRNS RADARS THEREFORE THE CENTER AND DEVELOPING EYE IS NOT CLEARLY EVIDENT AS OF THIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS ABRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL OTHER FACTORS: FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OVER LAND ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06P IS FORECASTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. THE STR IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA THEN REINTENSIFY QUICKLY PERHAPS RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE PEAK INTENSITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR TAU 48, OVER WATER, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A 65-75 KNOT PEAK DUE TO VERY WARM SST (30- 32C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. BY TAU 60, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INLAND AND WEAKEN TO 55-60 KNOTS. THEN IT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: DYNAMIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE (EPS AND GEFS) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS OVER LAND, THEREFORE, LOW CONFIDENCE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS MEDIUM WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 48. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN