WTPN31 PGTW 172100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 12.6N 128.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 128.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 13.5N 127.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.2N 126.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 14.9N 126.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 15.5N 126.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 17.3N 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 18.8N 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 21.0N 127.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 128.1E. 17APR21. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 448 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 58 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.// NNNN WDPN31 PGTW 172100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 448NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INVARIABLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) MAINTAINING A SHARPLY OUTLINED 12-NM EYE. THE VERY ROBUST AND TIGHTLY COMPACT SYSTEM HAS SPIRALED TIGHTER INTO THE CDO, INDICATING IT HAS POTENTIALLY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OVER THE WELL-DEFINED EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 165KTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T7.5 TO T8.0 (155-170KTS) PGTW, KNES, RJTD; AND THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF T8.0/170KTS (ADT) AND 164KTS (SATCON), ALL REFLECTING THE EXTREMELY INTENSE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. STY 02W IS TRACKING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. STY 02W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SPLIT IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BUILDS AND TAKES OVER AS THE MAIN STEERING RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AT THIS SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS A REGION OF HIGHER SHEAR (20-25KTS) TO THE NORTH. AS STY SURIGAE APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS, THE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY WILL SLOW AS IT ENTERS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL DECREASE, SHEAR WILL INCREASE, AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN DOWN TO 110KTS BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN CROSS-TRACK SPREAD TO 148NM AT TAU 48. THEREFORE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID OVER BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THE SLOW PROGRESSION DURING THE WEAK STEERING SEGMENT. THE CROSS TRACK ERROR DIVERGES SLIGHTLY GREATER TO 180NM BY TAU 72 AS INDICATED BY THE FAR LEFT OUTLIER OF NVGM AND THE FAR RIGHT OUTLIER OF JGSM. C. AFTER TAU 72, STY SURIGAE WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, CREST THE AXIS, THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. AS IT MOVES FURTHER NORTH, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LESS FAVORABLE AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DECREASES LEADING TO A NATURAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM TO 75KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE CLUSTERED CLOSER, WITH NVGM AS THE ONLY TRACK MEMBER AIMING TOWARDS LUZON AT TAU 96. ALL OTHER MODELS REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND AND CONTINUE THE TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CROSS TRACK SPREAD IS NOW DOWN TO 425NM AT TAU 120, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN