WTPN31 PGTW 312100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 13.7N 125.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 170 KT, GUSTS 205 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 125.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 13.7N 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 14.3N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 14.6N 117.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 14.7N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 14.6N 112.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 14.4N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 14.0N 107.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 312100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 124.4E. 31OCT20. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 63 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (ATSANI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN WDPN31 PGTW 312100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, DENSE, AND SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED 12 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN THE EIR AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 170 KTS IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T8.0 (170 KTS, PGTW, RJTD AND KNES) AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AN ADVANCED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T7.8 (164 KTS) AND A 311654Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 161 KTS. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). STY GONI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS AS AN INTENSE SUPER TYPHOON. AFTER LANDFALL, CONTINUED MODERATE VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TO 75 KTS BY TAU 24, BY WHICH TIME IT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE AT THIS TIME AS HIGH (20-25 KTS) VWS HINDERS INTENSIFICATION DESPITE CONTINUED WARM SST, THROUGH TAU 48. AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO 65 KTS BY TAU 36 AND FURTHER WEAKEN TO 60 KTS BY TAU 48. AT THIS TIME, VWS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY, HOWEVER SST WILL ALSO DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW STY GONI TO MAINTAIN A 60 KTS INTENSITY BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A MAXIMUM 213 NM SPREAD IN TRACK SOLUTIONS BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. C. BEYOND TAU 72, STY GONI WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND MAKE A SECONDARY AND FINAL LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM SOUTH OF DA NANG PRIOR TO TAU 120. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS AND AFTER LANDFALL WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO ADDITIONAL TERRAIN EFFECTS. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED TO 35KTS. NAVGEM DIVERGES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF NUMERICAL MODELS AND JGSM TO THE LEFT, THEREBY OFFSETTING EACH OTHER. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN