WTPS31 PGTW 162100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (TINO) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/152051ZJAN2020// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (TINO) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 177.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 360 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 177.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.0S 179.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 300 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 18.3S 177.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 20.7S 175.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 23.4S 173.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 30.6S 165.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 178.3E. 16JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (TINO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. EIR ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTENSIVE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. A 161714Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A PRIMARY BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING ELSEWHERE BUT CLEARLY REFLECTS THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPROVED OUTFLOW WITH A POINT SOURCE NOW POSITIONED OVER THE CENTER AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SST VALUES OF 29C REMAIN FAVORABLE. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO A RELATIVELY SIMPLE STEERING PATTERN WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A 40-45NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, AND REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 145NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 48, TC 08P WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (LESS THAN 26C) AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 72, SST VALUES WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY (20C) AND VWS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG LEVELS (30-40 KNOTS), WHICH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 08P WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND TRACKS NEAR THE JET STREAM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 152100).// NNNN