{"id":435,"date":"2026-08-31T15:05:12","date_gmt":"2026-08-31T20:05:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/?p=435"},"modified":"2026-08-31T15:05:12","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T20:05:12","slug":"southeast-microbursts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/2026\/08\/31\/southeast-microbursts\/","title":{"rendered":"Southeast Microbursts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this post we see how ProbSevere v4 performs with Southeast microbursts, which are notoriously difficult. In parts of the Carolina, effective shear was a bit higher (20-30 kt), producing cell clusters. PSv4 probabilities and motion progressed well with these. Elsewhere, especially from Louisiana to Georgia, the shear and mean wind were very low (&lt; 15 kt). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"766\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2026\/08\/cape-shear_20260823-1024x766.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-437\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2026\/08\/cape-shear_20260823-1024x766.png 1024w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2026\/08\/cape-shear_20260823-300x224.png 300w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2026\/08\/cape-shear_20260823-767x574.png 767w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2026\/08\/cape-shear_20260823-1536x1149.png 1536w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2026\/08\/cape-shear_20260823.png 2002w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"720\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1280 \/ 720;\" width=\"1280\" controls src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2026\/08\/ps_20260821.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">ProbSevere v4 probabilities (contours), NWS severe thunderstorm warnings (orange polygons), and preliminary severe local storm reports (points) valid from 0-45 minutes after the image timestamp. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite the low shear, PSv4 does a decent job with low-to-moderate probabilities on most of these regions before wind gusts or damage was reported. Albeit, the average lead time was probably a bit less than usual, but that is typical for this regime. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this post we see how ProbSevere v4 performs with Southeast microbursts, which are notoriously difficult. In parts of the Carolina, effective shear was a bit higher (20-30 kt), producing cell clusters. PSv4 probabilities and motion progressed well with these. Elsewhere, especially from Louisiana to Georgia, the shear and mean wind were very low (&lt; [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":437,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[6],"class_list":["post-435","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-psv4","tag-psv4"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=435"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":438,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435\/revisions\/438"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/437"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=435"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=435"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=435"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}