{"id":412,"date":"2026-08-11T14:32:39","date_gmt":"2026-08-11T19:32:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/?p=412"},"modified":"2026-08-11T14:32:39","modified_gmt":"2026-08-11T19:32:39","slug":"upper-midwest-storms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/2026\/08\/11\/upper-midwest-storms\/","title":{"rendered":"Upper Midwest Storms"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Momentum from northwest flow overlaid rich moisture in the upper Midwest and western Ohio valley spawned multiple clusters of intense storms, including supercells. Several tornadoes touched down in Wisconsin and Chicagoland, including the EF3 Menasha, Wisconsin tornado. Storms later congealed into bowing segments in Indiana and Kentucky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"697\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2026\/08\/image-1024x697.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-413\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2026\/08\/image-1024x697.png 1024w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2026\/08\/image-300x204.png 300w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2026\/08\/image-768x523.png 768w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2026\/08\/image-1536x1046.png 1536w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2026\/08\/image.png 1630w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ProbSevere v4, the image-based AI model that uses MRMS and HRRR data to predict the probability of any severe weather in the next 45 minutes, tracked well with official NWS warnings, and was out ahead of warnings in some places.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"720\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1280 \/ 720;\" width=\"1280\" controls src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2026\/08\/ps_20260727.mp4\"><\/video><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A main benefit of the ProbSevere v4 methodology is rapid spatial updates, which NWS doesn&#8217;t really have the ability to do currently, but may be able to one day, in a &#8220;Threats-In-Motion&#8221; paradigm. NWS also doesn&#8217;t prioritize canceling warning area (or at least, not all NWS offices do), but ProbSevere v4 bakes in it, because it gets penalized if the probability blobs are too large.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Work is on-going to extend lead time out to 4 hours and to trim down probability blobs that are spatially too large. Quantitatively, we&#8217;ve demonstrated that PSv4 is superior to PSv3-PHI in terms of spatial skill (see <a href=\"https:\/\/ams.confex.com\/ams\/106ANNUAL\/meetingapp.cgi\/Paper\/467638\">here<\/a>). <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Momentum from northwest flow overlaid rich moisture in the upper Midwest and western Ohio valley spawned multiple clusters of intense storms, including supercells. Several tornadoes touched down in Wisconsin and Chicagoland, including the EF3 Menasha, Wisconsin tornado. Storms later congealed into bowing segments in Indiana and Kentucky. ProbSevere v4, the image-based AI model that uses [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":413,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-412","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/412","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=412"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/412\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":415,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/412\/revisions\/415"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/413"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=412"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=412"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=412"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}