{"id":310,"date":"2026-04-24T13:48:53","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T18:48:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/?p=310"},"modified":"2026-04-24T13:48:53","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T18:48:53","slug":"probsevere-v4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/2026\/04\/24\/probsevere-v4\/","title":{"rendered":"ProbSevere v4"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Scientists at CIMSS and NOAA\/NSSL have been working on what we are calling ProbSevere v4. The goals are the same as previous version of ProbSevere: short-term prediction of severe convective hazards (large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes). The approach is very different. ProbSevere v4 does not use storm-object identification or tracking. Instead, it uses a more holistic approach, and uses <em>images<\/em> of meteorological data to make predictions <em>at every output point or pixel<\/em>. The output has a resolution of 4 km. <strong>The output is the probability of <em>any<\/em> severe hazard within 20 km and within the next 45 minutes<\/strong>. These spatiotemporal parameters may change in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ProbSevere v4 is part of a greater effort to create accurate, calibrated guidance for convective hazards from 0-6 hours, using the best data available (e.g., use Warn-on-Forecast data or GOES-R mesoscale sectors when available).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have found that the model has very good <em>spatial skill<\/em> &#8212; that is, maximizing Critical Success Index on a pixel-by-pixel basis. See <a href=\"https:\/\/ams.confex.com\/ams\/106ANNUAL\/meetingapp.cgi\/Paper\/467638\">this conference paper<\/a> for an overview of the evaluation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p> Here are few recent examples of model predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"720\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1280 \/ 720;\" width=\"1280\" controls src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2026\/04\/ps_test04_20260330.mp4\"><\/video><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"720\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1280 \/ 720;\" width=\"1280\" controls src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2026\/04\/ps_test04_20250519.mp4\"><\/video><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"720\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1280 \/ 720;\" width=\"1280\" controls src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2026\/04\/ps_t04_NE_20260414.mp4\"><\/video><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"720\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1280 \/ 720;\" width=\"1280\" controls src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2026\/04\/ps_t04_KS_20260413.mp4\"><\/video><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"720\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1280 \/ 720;\" width=\"1280\" controls src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2026\/04\/ps_t04_20260413.mp4\"><\/video><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"720\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1280 \/ 720;\" width=\"1280\" controls src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2026\/04\/ps_t04_20260414.mp4\"><\/video><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Scientists at CIMSS and NOAA\/NSSL have been working on what we are calling ProbSevere v4. The goals are the same as previous version of ProbSevere: short-term prediction of severe convective hazards (large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes). The approach is very different. ProbSevere v4 does not use storm-object identification or tracking. Instead, it uses [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":303,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-310","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-psv4"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/310","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=310"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/310\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":317,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/310\/revisions\/317"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/303"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=310"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=310"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=310"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}