{"id":57,"date":"2025-11-13T14:37:02","date_gmt":"2025-11-13T20:37:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/?page_id=57"},"modified":"2026-04-06T13:00:59","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T18:00:59","slug":"ps","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/ps\/","title":{"rendered":"ProbSevere v3"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>ProbSevere v3 is a set of four machine-learning models that predict the probabilities of severe hail (\u2265 1&#8243; diameter), severe wind gusts (\u2265 50 kt), tornadoes, and any of those hazards in any identified convective storm in the contiguous United States (<a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/ProbSevere_QuickGuide.pdf\">Quick Guide<\/a>). ProbSevere v3 became operational at NOAA in August 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/ps\/map\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Real-time data viewer<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium image-hover-highlight\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/ps_viewer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"155\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/PSv3RealEarth_0330_22June2023X-300x155.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-145\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/PSv3RealEarth_0330_22June2023X-300x155.png 300w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/PSv3RealEarth_0330_22June2023X-1024x530.png 1024w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/PSv3RealEarth_0330_22June2023X-768x397.png 768w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/PSv3RealEarth_0330_22June2023X-1536x794.png 1536w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/PSv3RealEarth_0330_22June2023X.png 1740w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick Links<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/ProbSevere_v3_FileDescription.docx.pdf\">File format description<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/noaa-mrms-pds.s3.amazonaws.com\/index.html#ProbSevere\/\">ProbSevere on NODD<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/mrms.ncep.noaa.gov\/ProbSevere\/PROBSEVERE\/\">ProbSevere on NCEP<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/realearth.ssec.wisc.edu\/s\/b3oAil\">Daily accumulation<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>GRLevelX placefiles<\/strong> (v2.60+ required)\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/severe_conv\/NOAACIMSS_PSv3_LOOP\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ProbSevere-v3 1-hr loop<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/severe_conv\/NOAACIMSS_PTv3_LOOP\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ProbTor-v3 1-hr loop<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Training<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/goesrhwt.blogspot.com\/search\/label\/ProbSevere\">GOES-R Hazardous Weather Testbed Blog posts<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/satellite-blog\/?s=ProbSevere\">CIMSS Satellite Blog posts<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"1080\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1728 \/ 1080;\" width=\"1728\" controls src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/PSv3TrainingRecording_2023.mp4\"><\/video><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Model predictors<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2472\" height=\"1278\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/predictors_PSv3PTv3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-62\" style=\"width:750px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/predictors_PSv3PTv3.png 2472w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/predictors_PSv3PTv3-300x155.png 300w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/predictors_PSv3PTv3-1024x529.png 1024w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/predictors_PSv3PTv3-768x397.png 768w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/predictors_PSv3PTv3-1536x794.png 1536w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/predictors_PSv3PTv3-2048x1059.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2472px) 100vw, 2472px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2472\" height=\"1278\" src=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/predictors_PHv3PWv3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-61\" style=\"width:750px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/predictors_PHv3PWv3.png 2472w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/predictors_PHv3PWv3-300x155.png 300w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/predictors_PHv3PWv3-1024x529.png 1024w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/predictors_PHv3PWv3-768x397.png 768w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/predictors_PHv3PWv3-1536x794.png 1536w, https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/11\/predictors_PHv3PWv3-2048x1059.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2472px) 100vw, 2472px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Publications and presentations<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/journals.ametsoc.org\/view\/journals\/wefo\/39\/12\/WAF-D-24-0076.1.xml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ProbSevere Version 3: Improved Exploitation of Data Fusion and Machine Learning for Nowcasting Severe Weather,&nbsp;<em>WAF<\/em>&nbsp;(2024)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/presentation\/d\/1OhgrpqLku1boli8yWrhx9iCUqOFTcNvNVf_SjKtEJjU\/edit#slide=id.p1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">NWS Southern Region Science Circle (April 2022)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ProbSevere v2 publications and presentations:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/severe_conv\/training\/wafd190242.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">NOAA ProbSevere v2.0&#8211;ProbHail, ProbWind, and ProbTor,&nbsp;<em>WAF<\/em>&nbsp;(2020)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/severe_conv\/training\/waf-d-17-0099.1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The NOAA\/CIMSS ProbSevere Model: Incorporation of Total Lightning and Validation,&nbsp;<em>WAF<\/em>&nbsp;(2018)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/severe_conv\/training\/WAF-D-13-00113.1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">An Empirical Model for Assessing the Severe Weather Potential of Developing Convection,&nbsp;<em>WAF<\/em>&nbsp;(2014)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/severe_conv\/training\/JAMC-D-12-0330.1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Evolution of Severe and Nonsevere Convection Inferred from GOES-Derived Cloud Properties,&nbsp;<em>JAMC<\/em>&nbsp;(2013)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/severe_conv\/training\/JTECH-D-12-00114.1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">A Satellite-Based Convective Cloud Object Tracking and Multipurpose Data Fusion Tool with Application to Developing Convection,&nbsp;<em>J. Tech.<\/em>&nbsp;(2012)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/severe_conv\/training\/2010JAMC2433.1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Advances in Extracting Cloud Composition Information from Spaceborn Infrared Radiances&#8211;A Robust Alternative to Brightness Temperatures. Part I: Theory,&nbsp;<em>JAMC<\/em>&nbsp;(2010)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/ams.confex.com\/ams\/94Annual\/webprogram\/Paper238486.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Preliminary Evaluation of a Fused Algorithm for the Prediction of Severe Storms, AMS Annual Meeting (2014)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/severe_conv\/training\/GreatLakesSOOs2018.pptx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">NWS Great Lakes SOOs talk (2018)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/severe_conv\/training\/ProbSevere_Great_Lakes_SOOs_Aug2016.pptx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">NWS Great Lakes SOOs talk (2016)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/severe_conv\/training\/ProbSevere_Southern_Region_SOOs_Aug2016.pptx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">NWS Southern Region talk (2016)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/severe_conv\/training\/ProbSevere_Western_Region_SOOs_June2016.pptx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">NWS Western Region talk (2016)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/severe_conv\/training\/NOAA_NWS_CR_SOOs_ProbSevere_June2015.pptx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">NWS Central Region talk (2015)<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ProbSevere v3 is a set of four machine-learning models that predict the probabilities of severe hail (\u2265 1&#8243; diameter), severe wind gusts (\u2265 50 kt), tornadoes, and any of those hazards in any identified convective storm in the contiguous United States (Quick Guide). ProbSevere v3 became operational at NOAA in August 2025. Real-time data viewer [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-57","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/57","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57"}],"version-history":[{"count":56,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/57\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":289,"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/57\/revisions\/289"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cimss.ssec.wisc.edu\/probsevere\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}