This is an experimental forecast of the rapid intensification (RI) of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). These forecasts do not represent the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center.

This research looks to employ an objective satellite-based overshooting top detection algorithm to average the number of overshooting tops experienced by a TC and predicts RI. A forecast of RI beginning in the subsequent 24 hours is made when:

  • 25 knot RI: A 3-hour average of at least 2.0 TOTs with a brightness temperature ≤ 215 K within 200 km of the TC center is exceeded.
  • 30 knot RI: A 6-hour average of at least 2.5 TOTs with a brightness temperature ≤ 215 K within 200 km of the TC center is exceeded.
  • 35 knot RI: A 3-hour average of at least 2.5 TOTs with a brightness temperature ≤ 205 K within 200 km of the TC center is exceeded.
Forecasts are not made when:
the TC is at Category 4 strength or greater,
the TC is classified as subtropical,
the spread of the TOT angles is < 36° (therefore 64.2% of the TOTS are within just one 20% sector of the TC-near environment).
the TC is within 12 hours of landfall and 24 hours after exiting land.

Note: This is not a current analysis.

Presently, these are the OT RI Index forecasts and running count of OTs for currently active Atlantic TCs.

DEBBY located at 29.00° N and 84.38° W at 1330 UTC

25-kt RI is not forecasted to begin in the next 24 hours
30-kt RI is not forecasted to begin in the next 24 hours
35-kt RI is not forecasted to begin in the next 24 hours
al042012 300 km overshooting top line plot Current al042012 image

~~~~ RI Statistics from2012 ~~~~
RI threshold Probabilty of Detection Running Probabilty of Detection False Alarm Ratio Probabilty of False Detection Peirce Skill Score Running Peirce Skill Score
25 kt -NaN% (0/0) -NaN% (0/0) -NaN% (0/0) 0.000% (0/162) -NaN -NaN
30 kt -NaN% (0/0) -NaN% (0/0) -NaN% (0/0) 0.000% (0/150) -NaN -NaN
35 kt -NaN% (0/0) -NaN% (0/0) -NaN% (0/0) 0.000% (0/162) -NaN -NaN

DISCLAIMER: THESE PRODUCTS ARE GENERATED ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS. ACCURACY AND TIMELINESS ARE NOT GUARANTEED.

Last updated: Tue Jun 26 14:15:14 UTC 2012

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