VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU THIS EVE ACRS PARTS OF NE
TX...SRN AR...NW LA TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TXK 25 NW ELD 35 E
ELD MLU POE 45 S LFK AUS 45 SE BWD 20 S DAL TXK.
SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS
TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT BWD 40 WNW SEP 25 WNW TXK 20 S HOT
LIT 25 N DYR 30 SW HOP BNA TYS AHN MCN SSI ...CONT... DAB 30 SE
[...]
OUTFLOW BDRY ASSOCD WITH MCS CURRENTLY EVOLVING OVER AR AND NE TX
...AND SFC FRONT EXTENDING FM WEAK LOW OVER ERN OK ACRS THE TN VLY
INTO THE S ATLC COAST STATES...WILL REMAIN FOCAL POINTS FOR STG
CNVTV ACTIVITY THRU THE FCST PERIOD. VERY MOIST AMS WITH SFC
DWPNTS AOA 70F IS CONTRIBUTING TO MDT/STG INSTBY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THESE BDRYS...AND INSTBY WILL SUPPORT SVR THREAT WITH ONGOING
ACTIVITY INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS.
STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND GRTST INSTBY WITH CAPE AOA 4000 J/KG
/REF
27/00Z FTW RAOB/ PROGD TO
PERSIST ACRS E TX...WHERE SFC HEATING
AND LOW-LEVEL CNVGNC ARE EXPCD TO MAINTAIN GRADUAL SWD PROGRESSION
OF CNVTV SYS. BAND OF STGR MID-LEVEL FLOW IN BASE OF PLAINS UPR
TROF WILL ONLY ENHANCE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACRS THIS REGION...AS VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS APPEAR LIKELY BASED ON THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT ALONE.
[...]
===================================================================
ACUS1 KMKC 271516
SWODY1
MKC AC 271516
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.
VALID 271500Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN TX AND WRN
LA...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N GGG TXK ELD MLU 20 W 7R4 GLS
25 NNW VCT 40 WNW AUS 40 NE ACT 40 N GGG.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT
JCT 30 NW ACT 30 SE PRX 20 W HOT 55 S HRO 20 NE HRO UNO P02 PAH
HOP 30 WNW MSL CBM CKL ANB CHA 30 E CHA 25 N MCN 35 ENE MCN
45 N AYS 15 NE SSI ...CONT... DAB 30 SE CTY.
[...]
...SE TX/WRN LA...
VRY WRM AND MOIST AIR RMNS IN PLACE ACRS SE TX/WRN LA...WHERE DWPTS
ARE IN THE LO TO MID 70S AND AFTN TEMPS SHUD CLIMB INTO THE UPR
80S/LO 90S. RELATIVELY STEEP /7 DEG C PER KM/ MIDLVL LAPSE RATES
ARE ALSO PRESENT OVR RGN...WHICH...GIVEN STG SFC HTG...SHUD BOOST
AFTN CAPE INTO THE 4000-5000 J/KG RANGE BY MID AFTN. COUPLED WITH
OUTFLOW BNDRYS TO FOCUS CNVGNC AND MDT /25-35 KTS/ WLY FLOW ALF...
CONDS WL BE FVRBL FOR THE DVLPMT OF SCTD INTENSE STMS WITH VRY LRG
HAIL..LCLY DMGG WNDS AND PSBLY ISOLD BRIEF TORNADOES. DCRG SHEAR
WITH TIME SUGS ACTVTY WL EVOLVE INTO A MCS AND MOV OFF THE SE TX
CST LTR TNGT.
[...]