Emission Scenarios  Concepts

After AR5, an international team of climate scientists, economists and energy systems modellers built a new range of “pathways” that examine how global society, demographics and economics might change over the next century. The new Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) are based on five narratives describing broad socioeconomic trends that could shape future society. These are intended to span the range of plausible futures.

They include: a world of sustainability-focused growth and equality (SSP1); a “middle of the road” world where trends broadly follow their historical patterns (SSP2); a fragmented world of “resurgent nationalism” (SSP3); a world of ever-increasing inequality (SSP4); and a world of rapid and unconstrained growth in economic output and energy use (SSP5). The following graphic provides insights into how these scenarios will liklely play out, depending on actions we take in the near future.