244 FXUS64 KAMA 111733 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1233 PM CDT Fri May 11 2018 .UPDATE... Looking at the 17Z obs, a weak cold front has stalled out at the northern edge of the Oklahoma Panhandle with a dry line in the western Panhandles extending north and south along a line which includes Dalhart and Bootleg. The dryline will move east this afternoon with the two most eastern stacks of counties in Texas and Beaver county in Oklahoma on the eastern side of the line. Temperatures are expected to warm to 95 plus degrees today which will help erode a CAP on the eastern side of the dry line. As well as MUCAPE values over 1000 J/Kg and moisture advection from the south east to the dryline will converge and help in the development of isolated thunderstorms in the far east of our coverage area. With temperature exceeding the convective temperature likely based off the 12Z RAOB from AMA and convergence along the dryline, some isolated storms will have chance to break the CAP and become severe. If a storm can get going, strong winds or a microburst or two will be possible due to steep lapse rates and DCAPE approaching 2000 J/Kg. Hoffeditz && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected for the 18Z TAF period. An isolated storm cannot be completely ruled out for KAMA/KGUY, but it should remain east of all TAF sites. Winds will vary between TAF sites. NW winds for KGUY behind the front with SW winds for KDHT and SE winds for KAMA through the overnight period. Winds will then diminish and shift to more westerly after 12Z to the end of the TAF period. Meccariello && PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 508 AM CDT Fri May 11 2018/ DISCUSSION... A dryline will move east today to near the Caprock with a frontal boundary stretching west to east across the northern portions of the forecast area remaining quasi-stationary today and tonight. Shortwave trough approaching the western Panhandles along with the frontal boundary and dryline will allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop across the eastern half of the Panhandles later today into this evening. Inverted-V soundings supportive of strong, gusty winds from these storms with little in the way of precipitation. DCAPEs are forecast to be around 1900 J/Kg late today. Frontal boundary to begin pushing slowly south across the southern and eastern Panhandles early Saturday and again early Sunday before lifting back to the north as a warm front by Saturday evening and Sunday evening. Front to finally push through the forecast area by the middle of next week. Continued daily chances for convection expected Sunday through most of next week mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Best chances will be during the first half of next week with the frontal boundary lying stationary across the forecast area and a series of shortwave troughs approaching the Panhandles on an active southwesterly flow aloft. Cooler conditions with still continued chances for convection, mainly across the eastern sections of the forecast area, are expected during the latter half of next week. Schneider FIRE WEATHER... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop around midday today across the western and central Panhandles as a dryline moves to near the Caprock this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions should develop over the eastern Panhandles this afternoon ahead of the dryline. Also, isolated thunderstorms with little precipitation are expected to develop later today into this evening across the eastern half of the Panhandles with the possibility for dry lightning mainly along and east of a Guymon to Claude line. In addition, strong and erratic winds can be expected to accompany these low precipitation thunderstorms which could result in extreme fire behavior. RFTIs of 3 to 6 are forecast along and west of a Guymon to Claude line with humidities as low as 5 to 10 percent this afternoon. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible on Saturday mainly along and west of a Guymon to Claude line. Once again, isolated low precipitation thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of the Caprock which will be capable of producing dry lightning along with strong and erratic winds. The most likely area for critical fire weather conditions will be across the western sections of the Panhandles. RFTIs of 3 to 5 will be possible along with humidities of around 8 to 14 percent. Schneider && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith... Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson...Moore...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Sherman. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for the following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith... Hartley...Moore...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Sherman. OK...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Cimarron...Texas. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for the following zones: Cimarron. && $$ 29/36