244
FXUS64 KAMA 111733
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1233 PM CDT Fri May 11 2018

.UPDATE...
Looking at the 17Z obs, a weak cold front has stalled out at the
northern edge of the Oklahoma Panhandle with a dry line in the
western Panhandles extending north and south along a line which
includes Dalhart and Bootleg. The dryline will move east this
afternoon with the two most eastern stacks of counties in Texas
and Beaver county in Oklahoma on the eastern side of the line.
Temperatures are expected to warm to 95 plus degrees today which
will help erode a CAP on the eastern side of the dry line. As well
as MUCAPE values over 1000 J/Kg and moisture advection from the
south east to the dryline will converge and help in the
development of isolated thunderstorms in the far east of our
coverage area. With temperature exceeding the convective
temperature likely based off the 12Z RAOB from AMA and
convergence along the dryline, some isolated storms will have
chance to break the CAP and become severe. If a storm can get
going, strong winds or a microburst or two will be possible due to
steep lapse rates and DCAPE approaching 2000 J/Kg.

Hoffeditz

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected for the 18Z TAF period. An isolated storm
cannot be completely ruled out for KAMA/KGUY, but it should remain
east of all TAF sites. Winds will vary between TAF sites. NW winds
for KGUY behind the front with SW winds for KDHT and SE winds for
KAMA through the overnight period. Winds will then diminish and
shift to more westerly after 12Z to the end of the TAF period.

Meccariello

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 508 AM CDT Fri May 11 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A dryline will move east today to near the Caprock with a frontal
boundary stretching west to east across the northern portions of
the forecast area remaining quasi-stationary today and tonight.
Shortwave trough approaching the western Panhandles along with
the frontal boundary and dryline will allow for isolated
thunderstorms to develop across the eastern half of the Panhandles
later today into this evening. Inverted-V soundings supportive of
strong, gusty winds from these storms with little in the way of
precipitation. DCAPEs are forecast to be around 1900 J/Kg late
today. Frontal boundary to begin pushing slowly south across the
southern and eastern Panhandles early Saturday and again early
Sunday before lifting back to the north as a warm front by
Saturday evening and Sunday evening. Front to finally push through
the forecast area by the middle of next week. Continued daily
chances for convection expected Sunday through most of next week
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Best chances will
be during the first half of next week with the frontal boundary
lying stationary across the forecast area and a series of
shortwave troughs approaching the Panhandles on an active
southwesterly flow aloft. Cooler conditions with still continued
chances for convection, mainly across the eastern sections of the
forecast area, are expected during the latter half of next week.

Schneider

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop around
midday today across the western and central Panhandles as a
dryline moves to near the Caprock this afternoon. Elevated fire
weather conditions should develop over the eastern Panhandles this
afternoon ahead of the dryline. Also, isolated thunderstorms with
little precipitation are expected to develop later today into this
evening across the eastern half of the Panhandles with the
possibility for dry lightning mainly along and east of a Guymon to
Claude line. In addition, strong and erratic winds can be expected
to accompany these low precipitation thunderstorms which could result
in extreme fire behavior. RFTIs of 3 to 6 are forecast along and
west of a Guymon to Claude line with humidities as low as 5 to 10
percent this afternoon.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible on
Saturday mainly along and west of a Guymon to Claude line. Once
again, isolated low precipitation thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and east of the Caprock which will be capable of
producing dry lightning along with strong and erratic winds. The
most likely area for critical fire weather conditions will be
across the western sections of the Panhandles. RFTIs of 3 to 5
will be possible along with humidities of around 8 to 14 percent.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...
     Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson...Moore...Oldham...Palo
     Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Sherman.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for the following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...
     Hartley...Moore...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Sherman.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron...Texas.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for the following zones: Cimarron.

&&

$$

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