FOCN45 CWWG 091900  
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM  
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT THURSDAY JUNE  
9 2016.  
  
ALERTS IN EFFECT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF SASKATCHEWAN  
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO WESTERN MB LATER TODAY.  
  
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...UPPER RIDGE IS SLIDING EASTWARDS INTO THE EASTERN  
PRAIRIES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA  
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO AN UPPER LOW IN THE BEAUFORT SEA. 994 MB  
LOW VC COLD LAKE WITH WARM FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD AND COLD FRONT  
SOUTHWARD. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE  
LOW. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN  
TODAY AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT.  
  
QUASISTATIONARY 1026 MB HIGH OVER NORTHERN BAFFIN BAY WITH RIDGE  
THROUGH WESTERN HUDSON BAY AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. QS COLD LOW OVER  
EXTREME NORTHERN HUDSON BAY.  
  
DISCUSSION...  
  
SK/MB...GOOD SETUP FOR SEVERE CONVECTION IN MUCH OF SASKATCHEWAN  
TODAY, WITH TWO MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN. FIRST AREA EXTENDS THROUGH  
CENTRAL SK IN THE VICINITY AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT, WHICH AS OF  
NOON EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOW VICINITY COLD LAKE PASSING SOUTH OF  
PRINCE ALBERT THEN INTO MANITOBA PASSING SOUTH OF DAUPHIN. SHORT WAVE  
WHICH MOVED THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL  
MOVE INTO WEST-CENTRAL MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CLEARING SKIES  
FOLLOWING. INCREASING INSTABILITY AS COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE SHORT WAVE/LOW VC COLD LAKE MOVES EASTWARD SHOULD RESULT IN  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM  
THE PRINCE ALBERT REGION INTO THE PARKLANDS AREA OF MANITOBA.  
WITH FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE  
40-50 KNOT RANGE, SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED. FAVOURABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR  
PROFILES VC WARM FRONT COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO, GIVEN  
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.  
  
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN RUNS FROM ASSINIBOIA REGION NORTHEASTWARD  
THROUGH YORKTON. 17 DEGREE DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO THE AREA, CARRIED BY  
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR. ALSO OF NOTE IS 80 KNOT JET  
STREAK NOTED ON AMDAR DATA IN MONTANA THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD PUSH  
INTO SE SK LATER TODAY. AS THIS INSTABILITY MOVES INTO OUR THREAT  
AREA THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXACT LOCATION  
OF SURFACE TROUGH NOW A BIT MORE EVIDENT THAN EARLIER THIS MORNING,  
WITH WIND SHIFT AND RADAR SIGNATURES SHOWING TROUGH JUST EAST OF  
REGINA THEN CURLING SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS  
OF NOON TODAY. WEAKER SECONDARY TROUGH ALSO VISIBLE APPROACHING  
REGINA FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THUS LIKELY WILL BE  
EAST OF REGINA TODAY, BUT GIVEN PROXIMATY OF INSTABILITY ALOFT AND  
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL KEEP THE WATCH OUT FOR THE CITY FOR NOW UNTIL  
THE THREAT AREA MOVES CLEARLY EAST. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON  
REMAINDER OF SE SK UNDER THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ESPECIALLY THE  
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES...MAY CONSIDER UPGRADE TO TORNADO WATCH IF  
CONDITIONS WARRANT.  
  
THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THESE  
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY EXTEND WATCH  
INTO WESTERN MANITOBA AS STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN SK THIS AFTERNOON  
MOVE INTO MANITOBA THIS EVENING.  
  
THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH  
HUMIDEX VALUES INTO THE MID TO UPPER THIRTIES THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE  
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF  
MANITOBA.  
  
WESTERN PRAIRIES...RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ALBERTA LOW IS ALREADY  
SPREADING INTO NORTHEASTERN ALBERTA AND NORTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN.  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 30 TO 40 MM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24  
HOURS, HOWEVER AMOUNTS SO FAR ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THE RDPS IS SHOWING.  
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW, THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE  
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 10 TO 12 CELSUIS AND MLCAPES IN THE 500-750  
J/KG RANGE. NEARER THE JET IN THE STETTLER-CORONATION-WAINWRIGHT  
AREA BULK SHEARS REACH UPWARDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS, SO SMALL  
SUPERCELLS ARE A POSSIBILITY IN THE WITH 2-3 CM HAIL AND WIND GUSTS  
TO 90 KM/H.  
  
EASTERN ARCTIC...AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS  
SOUTHEASTERN BAFFIN ISLAND ANAD NORTHERN KIVALLIQ OTHERWISE NIL SIG  
WX. RAIN OR WET SNOW EXPECTED.  
  
MACKENZIE...THE LOW IN THE BEAUFORT CONTINUES TO SPREAD MIXED  
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE MACKENZIE DELTA AND ARCTIC COASTLINE. FURTHER  
SOUTH, SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE  
NORMAN WELLS AREA ALONG THE MACKENZIE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  
  
END/FULTON/POWER