WTXS31 PGTW 292100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 108.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 108.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 17.5S 109.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 18.9S 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 20.1S 110.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 21.5S 111.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 24.8S 114.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 20 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 29.1S 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 108.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE(TC) 24S (QUANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 10-NM EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED GREATLY TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 24S HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT TO A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, STEERING TC 24S SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE AREA, FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING TC QUANG TO FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SST WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BECAUSE VWS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 36, DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.// NNNN