TCS049…the next TPARC target
TCS049 is a potential flight target for today. If they flew, the P3 would fly from 21Z on the 2nd - 05Z on the 3rd.
The animation shown below gives some sense of its structure:
It has some decent convection to the north and moderate upper level divergence. You can see signs of anticyclonic outflow to the northeast of the storm. You can also see a fairly strong TUTT low to the storm’s northeast limiting its development.
What about a low level center? The attached image shows the quikscatt analysis and available surface obs:
You can see a cyclonic circulation on its northeast side, but there is no sign of westerly winds on the east side.
And the shear?
The image above, valid at 11:30 Z on Oct. 2, 2008 shows the shear surrounding TCS049. You can see the southerly shear from the associated TUTT cell to its northwest and the ridge to its east. The shear is currently preventing significant development.
And for its future?
The EC model is the only one that really does something with this system. It sort of splits, with one system moving north and quickly recurving and a second , weaker system moving westward towards the Phillipeans.
Both of those happen in the long term though. It does not seem to be a system with a bright future.
Links:
Tags: Development, TCS049